Category: Forex Education

This section holds our Forex Educational library: Our trading library consists of a collection of the most excellent educational articles written by our top market experts. It is primarily focused on those subscribers who aim at initiating or consolidating a professional trading career; that is, for people who take trading seriously. It is our mission to continually enrich our library over time, as well to cover all sorts of useful topics, from foundational to the most advanced ones. We have separate sections for Advanced Forex Education, beginners Forex Education, A daily Forex Topic and a Complete Forex Course.

Categories
Forex Daily Topic Forex Price-Action Strategies

Do not Mix up, Stick with the Rules

In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of an H4 chart offering an entry. The daily-H4 chart combination traders are to keep an eye on the daily chart first. Once the daily chart produces a daily reversal candle from the support/resistance zone, they are to flip over to the H4 chart to take an entry. Today, we are going to do it in another way for a reason. We are going to start monitoring from the H4 chart. Let us start. Soon you will know why I am doing it so.

In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of an H4 chart offering an entry. The daily-H4 chart combination traders are to keep an eye on the daily chart first. Once the daily chart produces a daily reversal candle from the support/resistance zone, they are to flip over to the H4 chart to take an entry. Today, we are going to do it in another way for a reason. We are going to start monitoring from the H4 chart. Let us start. Soon you will know why I am doing it so.

In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of an H4 chart offering an entry. The daily-H4 chart combination traders are to keep an eye on the daily chart first. Once the daily chart produces a daily reversal candle from the support/resistance zone, they are to flip over to the H4 chart to take an entry. Today, we are going to do it in another way for a reason. We are going to start monitoring from the H4 chart. Let us start. Soon you will know why I am doing it so.

This is the H4 chart, and the red-marked level is daily support. It shows that the price is at the level of support. The last candle comes out as a bearish candle with a long lower shadow. It suggests that the level may produce a bullish reversal soon.

As expected, the chart produces a bullish engulfing candle right at the level of support. A bullish engulfing candle at a support zone has a strong message to send to the buyers that it is their territory.

The price goes towards the North for one more candle. It then has a correction and produces another bullish engulfing candle closing above the resistance. This is an ideal sequence for the price action traders to take a long entry. Let us assume that we do not trigger an entry here and have a look at the next chart.

The price keeps heading towards the North. It means that we have missed an opportunity to make some green pips here. Everything seems perfect, but why we skip taking the entry. Is it a mistake? Is not it? No, it is not a mistake. We shall not take the entry as far as the daily-H4 chart combination chart is concerned. We have started monitoring the chart from the H4 chart today. The daily-H4 chart combination traders are to monitor from the daily chart. Let us have a look at the Daily chart how it looks before flipping over to the first H4 chart here.

You see that the last daily candle comes out as a bearish one. It closes within a level, which has the potential to hold the price as a level of support. However, it has not produced a bullish reversal candle yet. Thus, they shall not flip over to the H4 chart. This is the reason that the daily-H4 chart combination traders may not take the above entry. The H4-H1 chart combination traders may not get an entry here as well since the level of support is not H4 support. The price does not react to the level on the H4 chart in recent times.  It moves towards the North by obeying other trading methods but not according to the price action chart combination trading.

We must be disciplined and must not mix up one strategy with others but stick with the rules. Sticking with the rules is one of the most important factors to be consistent in trading.

Categories
Forex Daily Topic Forex Price-Action Strategies

Consolidation and Breakout: The Two Key Movements in Price Action Trading

Price action trading mainly relies on consolidation, trend, and breakout. Reversal candle is another feature that traders keep an eye at. Typically, double top/bottom, morning star/evening star, and engulfing candle are considered the strongest reversal signal. However, even an inside bar may create an excellent bullish/bearish momentum if the price consolidates and makes a perfect breakout. In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of this.

Price action trading mainly relies on consolidation, trend, and breakout. Reversal candle is another feature that traders keep an eye at. Typically, double top/bottom, morning star/evening star, and engulfing candle are considered the strongest reversal signal. However, even an inside bar may create an excellent bullish/bearish momentum if the price consolidates and makes a perfect breakout. In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of this.

Price action trading mainly relies on consolidation, trend, and breakout. Reversal candle is another feature that traders keep an eye at. Typically, double top/bottom, morning star/evening star, and engulfing candle are considered the strongest reversal signal. However, even an inside bar may create an excellent bullish/bearish momentum if the price consolidates and makes a perfect breakout. In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of this.

We are looking at an H4 chart. It shows that the price heads towards the North with extreme bullish momentum. A bearish inside bar followed by another bearish candle makes a reversal. The price after being bearish may have found its support. The buyers are to wait for the price to make a bullish breakout at the level of resistance. The sellers are to wait for consolidation and a bearish breakout at the level of support.

The price starts having a correction. If it keeps going towards the North further, it may get choppy. If it finds its resistance nearby, the sellers may find an opportunity to go short on the pair.

The chart produces a bearish engulfing candle. It means the price finds its resistance. If it makes an H1 breakout at the level of support, the sellers may want to trigger a short entry. Let us now have a look at the same chart with those two levels.

The equation gets much simpler with those two levels. Since this is an H4 chart, the sellers are to flip over to the H1 chart to get a breakout and trigger a short entry. The reversal candle looks strong enough to make the sellers keep an eye on the pair to take a short entry upon a breakout.

This is how the H1 chart looks. The price seems to have found two levels of support here. However, the H4 chart looks very bearish, which may keep driving the price to make a breakout at the level of red marked support.

Here comes the breakout. The candle closes well below the level of support. It has a long lower shadow, but it has a thick bearish body as well. The sellers may trigger a short entry right after the candle closes by setting stop loss above the resistance. Take profit may be set at the last swing low on the H4 chart. Let us proceed to the next chart to find out how the entry goes.

The price heads towards the South with good bearish momentum. It makes another bearish breakout at the last swing low as well. Concisely, the sellers grab some green pips from the entry.

If we concentrate on the first candle of the trend, we see that the candle is a bearish inside bar. An inside bar is considered the weakest reversal signal. However, it produces an excellent short signal here because of perfect consolidation and the breakout. The above example signifies the importance of consolidation and breakout in price action trading.

Categories
Forex Economic Indicators Forex Fundamental Analysis

What you should know about Government Debt to GDP

What is the Government Debt to GDP?

What is the Government Debt to GDP?

What is the Government Debt to GDP?

The government Debt-to-GDP ratio is simply the ratio between the country’s total GDP (Gross Domestic Product) to its total debt. It is computed by dividing the total debt the nation has in a particular year to that of the GDP figure for that year.

As it is a ratio, this indicator is represented in percentage. The debt-to-GDP ratio indicates the country’s capability to repay its debts. If the debt-to-GDP ratio of a country is high, it means that the country might struggle to pay back the debt it has incurred. If this ratio is nominally high, then there is a high likelihood that the country is more likely to default on payments and fail to repay the debt. If the debt-to-GDP ratio is low, then the country is in a stable financial position to repay the debt.

This ratio is also useful to help determine the number of years that a country would need in order to pay back the debt if the total GDP is solely dedicated to the repayment. The debt-to-GDP ratio also measures the financial leverage of an economy.

 

What Does the Debt-to-GDP Ratio Tell You?

A financial panic in domestic and international markets is triggered when a country is unable to repay its debt. Governments will strive to lower their debt-to-GDP ratios. However, this can be difficult during periods of unrest or when the country is in an economic recession. When this occurs, governments like to increase borrowing in an attempt to stimulate economic growth.

Some economists adhere to the modern monetary theory (MMT), which argues that sovereign nations that are capable of printing their own money can’t go bankrupt as they can simply print more fiat currency to cover their debts. However, the nations of European Union (EU), who have to rely on the European Central Bank (ECB) to issue euros, do not apply to this rule because they do not control their own monetary policies.

A  recent study by the World Bank found that countries whose debt-to-GDP ratios exceed 77% for extended periods will experience a slowdown in economic growth. It is important to note that every percentage point of debt above this level costs countries 1.7% in economic growth and is even more pronounced in the emerging markets, where each additional percentage point of debt over 64%, annually slows growth by 2%.

Sources of information on ‘Debt to GDP Ratio’ for Major currencies:

In the sources below, there is a lot of information with respect to the Debt to GDP ratio. You can acquaint yourself with the Debt to GDP ratio for the respective country in addition to the historical data related to that country’s Debt to GDP ratio. This graphical representation of the historical Debt to GDP ratio data will leave you with a clearer understanding of how these ratios can change over time.

World Bank – https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/dataset/quarterly-public-sector-debt

GBP (Sterling) – https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/government-debt-to-gdp

AUD – https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/government-debt-to-gdp

USD – https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-debt-to-gdp

CHF – https://tradingeconomics.com/switzerland/government-debt-to-gdp

EUR – https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/government-debt-to-gdp

CAD – https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/government-debt-to-gdp

NZD – https://tradingeconomics.com/new-zealand/government-debt-to-gdp

JPY – https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/government-debt-to-gdp

 

Frequency of release

Public Debt figures are released quarterly by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), therefore, investors and agency ratings are able to compute this ratio on a quarterly basis.

What do traders care about the Debt to GDP ratio and its impact on the currency?

As we already know, the government debt to GDP ratio indicates the ability of a country to repay its debt, and a higher Debt to GDP ratio for an extended period of time means that the country is more likely to get default on its debt. This leads the foreign banks and governments to lend more money to these countries, and they increase their interest rates to mitigate the high risk involved. Aa a result, the economy of the country will slow down when there is a high debt to GDP ratio. A weak economy can indicate that there may be depreciation of that currency. This is why this ratio will be an essential factor for forex traders to consider when they trade on the Forex market.

The bottom line

If a country has a high debt-to-GDP ratio for an extended amount of time, it can indicate a recession as a country’s GDP will go down in a recession. This will also affect the people living in that country as governments tend to increase taxes to keep up the revenue. The lending governments will have more faith in the county to repay their debts if there is a high return on the debt that is borrowed. If there is a high risk involved due to less return on the debt that is acquired, this will question the lenders. Another important factor to consider is that the lending institutions earn a high rate of interest on the debt that is provided, So they won’t mind the country in question not paying back their debt, as the lending country can earn high interest from the debts they have provided.

From a traders’ point of view, it is better to have an overall view on what the country’s debt to GDP ratio is and to forecast if the specific country is likely to repay their debts or default on payments. If this fundamental analysis indicator factor is ignored when doing your due diligence for long term trades, then there is a high probability of the specific currency to depreciate in the long run, if that country defaults on its debt.

 

 

Categories
Forex Assets

What Should You Know About AUD/USD Forex Pair

Firstly, the abbreviation of the AUDUSD currency pair is the Australian dollar and the US dollar. AUDUSD is a major currency pair. It is considered a major pair because it is AUD is paired with the US dollar, and also, this is one of the pairs where a huge volume of trading takes place. In AUDUSD, AUD is the base currency, and USD is the quote currency.

Firstly, the abbreviation of the AUDUSD currency pair is the Australian dollar and the US dollar. AUDUSD is a major currency pair. It is considered a major pair because it is AUD is paired with the US dollar, and also, this is one of the pairs where a huge volume of trading takes place. In AUDUSD, AUD is the base currency, and USD is the quote currency.

Firstly, the abbreviation of the AUDUSD currency pair is the Australian dollar and the US dollar. AUDUSD is a major currency pair. It is considered a major pair because it is AUD is paired with the US dollar, and also, this is one of the pairs where a huge volume of trading takes place. In AUDUSD, AUD is the base currency, and USD is the quote currency.

Understanding AUD/USD

The exchange value of AUDUSD represents the units of USD equivalent to one unit of AUD. In technical terms, it is the value of AUD against USD. For example, if the current market price of AUDUSD is 0.6960, then it means that it takes 0.6960 US dollars to buy 1 Australian dollar. Trading the AUDUSD currency pair is basically trading the Aussie (Australian dollar).

AUD/USD Specification

Spread

Spread is the difference between the bid price and the ask price. The spread usually varies based on account type. The spread on an ECN account and an STP account is as follows:

ECN: 0.7 | STP: 1.4

Fee

There is charged by brokers for every trade a trader takes. However, this depends on the type of forex account. Typically there is a fee in ECN accounts and zero-fee in STP accounts. Also, there is no exact value of fee on a single trade, as it differs from broker to broker.

Slippage

Slippage is the difference between the trader’s requested price and the real executed price. Slippage happens when the volatility of the market is quite high. It happens for market orders. Slippage can be in favor of the trader or against him. If entering and closing of the trade is done by market execution, then slippage happens twice. The slippage is usually between 0.5 and 3 pips. However, it depends on the broker’s execution speed as well.

Trading Range in AUD/USD

There are several timeframes to trade this currency pair. A day trader may pick the 1H, 4H, or the 1D timeframe, while a positional trader may opt for the weekly or the monthly. Apart from analyzing these timeframes, it is also necessary to know the volatility range in each of the timeframes. Knowing the pip movement range in each timeframe, one can assess their risk involved in each trade.

Below is the table, which represents the minimum, average, and maximum pip movement in each timeframe.

Note: The below values are an approximation from the Average True Range (ATR) indicator.

AUD/USD PIP RANGES 

Procedure to assess Pip Ranges

  1. Add the ATR indicator to your chart
  2. Set the period to 1
  3. Add a 200-period SMA to this indicator
  4. Shrink the chart so you can assess a large time period
  5. Select your desired timeframe
  6. Measure the floor level and set this value as the min
  7. Measure the level of the 200-period SMA and set this as the average
  8. Measure the peak levels and set this as Max.
GBP/USD Cost as a Percent of the Trading Range

This is where the above values are put into play. By considering the volatility range in each timeframe, the cost (fee) for a single trade is measured in terms of a percentage for every mentioned timeframe. The basic idea to this is that the higher the percentage value, the higher is the cost of the trade.

The cost is calculated by considering three variables, namely, slippage, spread, and trading fee. And the sum of these values gives the total cost of each trade.

As mentioned earlier, the cost varies from the type of trading account. So, there will be variation in cost percentages as well.

ECN Model Account

Spread = 0.7 | Slippage = 2 | Trading fee = 1

Total fee = Spread + Slippage + Trading fee = 0.7 + 2 + 1

Total cost = 3.7 (pips)

STP Model Account

Spread = 1.4 | Slippage = 2 | Trading fee = 0

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 2 + 1.4 + 0

Total cost = 3.4

The Ideal Timeframe to Trade GBP/USD

The first observation that can be made from the above percentage values is that the minimum column has the highest percentages compared to other columns. This means that the cost is pretty high when the volatility of the market is too low irrespective of the timeframe. Contrarily, the costs are significantly less when the volatility of the market is high (max column). However, it is quite risky to trade when the market volatility is high though the fee is less. So, it is ideal during those times of the day when the market volatility is above average.

Note that volatility is not only one which decides on which is the best timeframe and time of the day to trade. The slippage value equally plays an important role, as well. For instance, if the slippage is made nil and the percentages are calculated, it is seen that the ranges drop down considerably. Hence, it is recommended to enter and exit trades using limit orders and not market orders.

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave

Introduction to Wave Analysis

To think in a scientific and objective method to analyze and forecast using the Elliott Wave Theory could sound impossible. However, Glenn Neely was the first one to develop it. This educational article is the first part of a series dedicated to exposing his contribution towards the Wave Analysis.

To think in a scientific and objective method to analyze and forecast using the Elliott Wave Theory could sound impossible. However, Glenn Neely was the first one to develop it. This educational article is the first part of a series dedicated to exposing his contribution towards the Wave Analysis.

To think about a scientific and objective method to analyze and forecast using the Elliott Wave Theory could sound impossible. However, Glenn Neely was the first one to develop it. This educational article is the first part of a series dedicated to exposing his contribution towards the Wave Analysis.

The Background

The Elliott Wave Principle is part of nature and can be applied to the financial markets as a socio-economic phenomenon. The result of this application is a graphic representation of mass psychology.

The interaction of different market participants reflects prices into identifiable patterns. These patterns tend to repeat across time and allow us to foresee the most likely next movement of the market.

In financial markets, the price does not have an absolute top or bottom. The application of the Elliott Wave can help to determine the time and price where a trend could start or end. The study and analysis of specific patterns or price structures support this analysis once formation ends.

Why the Wave Theory?

The comprehension of the psychology of the masses allows the trader to participate in any financial market. For example, stock markets, commodities, currency market, among others.

Compared with traditional technical analysis, the wave theory is based on the perspective of price behavior over time, not on the identification of a specific pattern, for example, a head and shoulders pattern, double or triple top or bottom, etc.

It should be noted that the wave theory is adaptable over time. Further, although wave patterns repeat over time, there are not two markets that make the same move at the same magnitude.

Pros and Cons

  • Panoramic overview, Wave theory knowledge provides an overview of the market and what should be the most probable next path.
  • To know the psychology of masses and the wave structures allows us to understand the market expectations. Further, it will enable us to identify the phenomena as fear and euphoria.
  • Complexity, the wave theory is probably the most complex method of analysis in its understanding.
  • Flexible mentality, the wave analysis requires to detach from the mass opinion, and comprehend what stage runs the market.
  • Time available to study and apply this method.
  • Indetermination when a price structure is incomplete. However, once the wave pattern is complete, the structure and the potential next move is clear.

Conclusions

The wave theory is a complete method that can represent the psychology of masses in identifiable patterns. This method provides a comprehensive perspective of the market situation and the most likely next move.

The difficulty in the application of wave theory requires not only to learn the basic concepts. It also is fundamental to develop the capacity of abstraction to visualize the movements in progress. This capability increases across time and continuous study of different markets and conditions.

Categories
Forex Assets

Everything You Should Know To Trade The GBP/USD Forex Pair

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

Currency pairs are classified as major, minor, exotic, etc. Major currencies pairs are those pairs that involve the US dollar as one of the currencies. These currencies typically have high liquidity and volatility. GBPUSD is one such example. It is the currency pair where Great Britain Pound is traded against the US dollar.

In this article, we shall be covering all the basic fundamentals which are essential to know before trading this pair. And before getting into the specifications of this pair, let us first understand what actually the price of GBPUSD signifies.

In GBPUSD, GBP is the base currency, and USD is the quote currency. The value (price) of the pair determines the units of USD required to purchase one unit of GBP. For example, if the current value of GBPUSD is 1.3100, then the trader must possess the US $1.3100 to buy 1 Pound.

GBP/USD Specification

Spread

Spread is simply the difference between the bid price and the ask price. The spread depends on the type of account.

Spread on ECN: 0.7

Spread on STP: 1.3

Fees

Again, the fee depends on the type of account. Typically, there is no fee charged by STP accounts. There is a trading fee on ECN account, which depends from broker to broker.

Slippage

Forex is very liquid and volatile. Hence, this causes slippage. Slippage is the difference between the price requested by the trader and the actual price the trader received. And this depends on the broker’s execution speed and volatility of the market. The slippage in major currency pairs is usually within 0.5 and 5 pips.

Trading Range in GBPUSD

As a trader, it is vital to know the number of pips a currency pair moves in a period of time. This is basically the volatility in the currency pair. And volatility is one of the factors which are helpful in risk management.

The volatility is measured in terms of percentage or pips. For example, if the volatility on the 1H timeframe of GBPUSD is 15 pips, then one can expect to gain or lose $150 (15 pip x $10 per pip) within a time period of few fours.

Below is a table that depicts the minimum, average, and maximum volatility (pip movement) on different timeframes.

EUR/USD PIP RANGES

Procedure to assess Pip Ranges

  1. Add the ATR indicator to your chart
  2. Set the period to 1
  3. Add a 200-period SMA to this indicator
  4. Shrink the chart so you can assess a large time period
  5. Select your desired timeframe
  6. Measure the floor level and set this value as the min
  7. Measure the level of the 200-period SMA and set this as the average
  8. Measure the peak levels and set this as Max.

(originally posted in our article here)

GBPUSD Cost as a Percent of the Trading Range

A Forex broker usually levies three type of charges for each trade. They are:

  • Slippage
  • Spread
  • Trading Fee

The sum of all the three costs will generate the total trading cost for one trade.

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee

Note: All costs are in terms of pips.

To bring up an application to the above volatility table, we bind these values with the total cost and find the cost variations (in terms of percentages) on different timeframes. And these percentages prove to be helpful in choosing the right timeframe with minimal costs.

ECN Model Account

Spread = 0.7 | Slippage = 2 | Trading fee = 1

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 2 + 0.7 + 1

Total cost = 3.7

STP Model Account

Spread = 1.3 | Slippage = 2 | Trading fee = 0

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 2 + 1.3 + 0

Total cost = 3.3

The Ideal Timeframe to Trade GBPUSD

Above are tables that illustrate the cost ranges in terms of percentage. Let us now comprehend the tables and figure out the ideal timeframe to trade this currency pair. From the above table, it is evident that the cost is highest (74% and 66%) in the 1H timeframe when the volatility is low. Hence, it is not ideal to pick the 1H timeframe when the volatility is around 5 pips (minimum).

On the flip side of things, the cost percentages are minimal on the 1M timeframe. Traders with a long term perspective on the market can invest with minimum costs.

Intraday traders, on the other hand, can pick the 1H, 2H, 4H, or the 1D timeframe when the volatility of the market is above average.

Another point to consider is that slippage eats up the costs significantly. So, it is recommended to plan strategies that involve placing of limit orders and not market orders.

As proof, below is a table that clearly shows the reduction in the cost percentages when the slippage is made NIL.

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading fee = 0 + 0.7 + 1

Total cost = 1.7

Comparing these values to the table with slippage=2, it can be ascertained that the cost percentage has reduced by a considerable amount. Hence, all in all, it is ideal to trade by placing limit orders rather than executing at the market price.

Categories
Candlestick patterns Forex Daily Topic

Candlestick Trading Patterns V – The Long Black-bodied Candlestick

In the previous article, We talked about candles with long and white bodies and discovered how such a candle could provide us with very useful information about the hidden properties of the market situation and the psychology of its participants.

In the previous article, We talked about candles with long and white bodies and discovered how such a candle could provide us with very useful information about the hidden properties of the market situation and the psychology of its participants.

In the previous article, We talked about candles with long and white bodies and discovered how such a candle could provide us with very useful information about the hidden properties of the market situation and the psychology of its participants.

Actually, a black body in a currency pair is equivalent to a white body in the reciprocal pair. That is, the black body of the EUR/USD is the white body of the USD/EUR. In any case, in Forex, we can also operate with commodities, energy, or stock CFDs, therefore in this article, we will develop the properties and informative potential offered by the long-black candle bodies.

As we said in the article on long-white candles, the market can be described by two types of movement: impulsive movement and corrective movement. Large black-bodied candles (like the long-white candles) belong to the impulsive movement category, and as such, are indicators of a trend, in this case, a bearish one.

A black body in a topping area

As in the case of the white candle, a long black candle in a topping zone is a clear warning of the trend halt. For the warning to be stronger, the black candle must clearly be longer than the candles that preceded it. A black candle of this kind indicates that the bears have taken control.

Image 1 – The long black-bodied candle appearing after an uptrend.

In the previous image, we can see that the black body erased the gains acquired by the preceding five candlesticks showing a rush of close orders. Then, after the initial selloff, a short recovery but buyers were not able to move the price to new highs.

A long Black-bodied candle confirms resistance

If a top consolidation area appears, and, then, a black body shows up, it is an extra confirmation that the resistance area will hold, and the trend is reversing.

Image 2 – The long black-bodied candle appearing at a resistance level

On the picture above, the price topped and retraced, followed by a recovery touching but not exceeding the previous top close. Then the engulfing black body started up at the same level, but it created an exceedingly large body surpassing the previous retracement low and closing near it. That was the confirmation for bears to push the market down.

The Long Black-bodied candle breaks a support

The break of a support level by a long black candlestick is terrible news for bulls. This situation should be considered more bearish than other less evident breakouts.

Image 3 – The long black-bodied candle breaking support trendline and SMA 50-SMA

In the case of the preceding image, which corresponds to a 2H Euro Stoxx 50 chart, the large-bodied candle not only broke the ascending trend line but, also, the 50-Period SMA. This confirmation is what bears needed to move down the price.

Long Black-bodied Candle as Resistance

The top and open of a long black-bodied candle will act as resistance levels. That situation happens when the price retraces the complete impulse. According to Mr. Nison, it is more typical the retracement to stop near 50% of the candle’s body. In consequence, a typical strategy following the trend is to place a sell-short position at that level with a stop-loss level over the top of the candle.

 

Image 4 – The top of a black-bodied candle as a resistance

Conclusions

A large black body is a clear indication of a bear trend, especially if it appears at previous tops or resistance areas. We should always pay attention to a black body and analyze the implications of it in terms of market sentiment, and also its meaning as a new resistance area. Finally, from the point of view of a price-action trader, large black bodies are an opportunity to open a position with the trend, after waiting for a pullback. Not always the pullback will happen, but when it does, it is a low-risk place to create a short entry.

 

Categories
Elliott Wave Guide Forex Elliott Wave

Advanced Elliott Wave Principle Concepts Guide

We have finished the section that covers advanced concepts of the Elliott Wave Principle. These concepts are unfolded, including the following aspects.

We have finished the section that covers advanced concepts of the Elliott Wave Principle. These concepts are unfolded, including the following aspects.

We have finished the section that covers advanced concepts of the Elliott Wave Principle. These concepts are unfolded, including the following aspects.

  1. Correlations, also known as Intermarket Analysis. In this section, we reveal how to use the relationship between markets.
  2. The use of technical indicators. This section divided two parts reveals two of the most popular oscillators used in the EW analysis.
    1. Awesome Oscillator (AO).
    2. Relative Strength Index (RSI).
  3. Corrective Patterns. Divided into three parts, expands the concepts discussed in the essential section.
    1. Flat Pattern.
    2. Corrective waves and the flag pattern.
    3. Analysis and trading with triangles.
  4. Markets and Speed. Every market vibes with speed. In this section unveiled into two parts shows how to analyze fast markets.
    1. Price and Speed relationship.
    2. How to Disclose the Speed.
  5. How to Create Spreads. In this section, we expose how we can create spreads to find strength and weakness between different markets.
  6. The Alternation Principle. This article shows how the market alternates across time.
  7. Forecasting with the Elliott Wave Principle. In this part, we present a way of how to realize a forecast and to set different scenarios using key concepts of the EW Principle.
  8. Examples. In this four-part section, we apply different concepts discussed in the real market to make forecasts.
    1. The USDJPY and its 3-years triangle.
    2. NZDUSD long term wave analysis.
    3. Dollar Index long term wave analysis.
    4. DAX and an Elliott Wave scenario planning.
Categories
Forex Daily Topic Point and Figure

Point & Figure: Profit Target and Stop-loss Settings Made Simple

 

 

Something new traders struggle with is trying to find appropriate profit targets and stop targets. Point & Figure charts make a process that is a struggle into something that is very, very easy. Two methods can be used to identify profit targets on a Point & Figure chart: Vertical Method and Horizontal Method. I am only going to show you the Vertical Method because the entire series I’ve done here has strictly been on the use of 3-box reversal Point & Figure charts.

The Horizontal Method can be found in Jeremy Du Plessis’s work. The Horizontal Method is more applicable to the most traditional form of Point & Figure – the 1-box reversal chart. There’s a formula for calculating the profit target on Point & Figure. Don’t get freaked about the word formula – the process is very simple.

Long Profit Target
Long Profit Target

Buy/Long Profit Target = (number of Xs in prior column * box size) * (reversal amount) + lowest O of the current O column.

Short Profit Target
Short Profit Target

Short Profit Target = (Number of Os in prior column * box size) * (reversal amount) – highest X of the current X column.

 

Stops

Regarding stops, I always stick with the reversal amount – so my risk is always, no matter the trade, 3-boxes worth. On my standard 20-pip box size Point & Figure charts, 60 pips are my max loss on any trade. Some authors suggest putting the stop one box below (or above) the reversal amount, but I’ve always stuck with the reversal amount being my stop.

The Blind Entry Trading System

I want to tell you something that might be a little mind-boggling. I’ve been teaching Point & Figure to another class this year, and we’ve focused on live testing the ‘blind entry’ trading strategy in Point & Figure – which is nothing more than taking every single multiple-top or multiple-bottom break without any other filter. We focused on the following pairs:

GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD, USDJPY, GBPJPY, EURGBP, EURUSD, and AUDJPY.

We did not use any profit targets. We exited trades only when the reversal column appeared. So our losses were always limited to just 60 pips on a 20-pip/3-box reversal Point & Figure chart. We traded from March 1st, 2019 through December 7th, 2019. The results below detail the net pips at the end of our trading period:

GBPUSD = +1,060 pips

AUDUSD = -60 pips

USDCAD = +200 pips

UDSJPY = +1060 pips

GBPJPY = + 2,620 pips

EURGBP = +480 pips

EURUSD = -280 pips

AUDJPY = +1,200 pips

Net Total pips = +6,280 (the average for the class was +5443 pips).

To put that into perspective, with a 0.1 (10,000 unit) Lot size, that’s a net $6,280.00. A full Lot would have equaled a net $62,800. I had one woman who traded an odd 3.33 Lots as her standard position size (I guess it is not that odd if you think about it). She led the pack with her real net pip count at +6,880 – with a 3.33 lot size that meant she made a net $229,104. I was and remain very envious of her performance – she should probably be teaching!

Sources:

Dorsey, T. J. (2013). Point and figure charting: the essential application for forecasting and tracking market prices (4th ed.). Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons.

Kirkpatrick II, C. D., & Dahlquist, J.R. (2016). Technical Analysis: The Complete Resource for Financial Market Technicians (Third). Old Tappan, NJ: Pearson.

Plessis, J.J. (2012). Definitive Guide to Point and Figure – a comprehensive guide to the theory (2nd ed.). Great Britain: Harriman House Publishing.

DeVilliers, V., & Taylor, O. (2008). Point and figure charting. London: Financial Times/Prentice Hall.

Categories
Forex Course

37. Types Of Brokers in the Foreign Exchange Market

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

If you can recall, we have discussed a bit about Forex brokers in course 1.0. Here is the link for that article. There we have discussed the brief history and introduction to brokers. We recommend you to have a quick look at that article to get a better understanding of Forex brokers. In this article, let’s discuss the two different types of brokers.

Forex brokers can be mainly be classified into two types:

  • Dealing Desks (DD)
  • No Dealing Desks (NDD)

What is a Dealing Desk broker?

Dealing Desk brokers are the Forex brokers who make money through spreads. Also, they are the ones who provide liquidity to the clients. Hence, these brokers are also referred to as Market Makers. The specialty of these brokers is that they can literally make the market for their clients. This is because they usually take the other side of the clients’ trade. So does this mean that brokers take every price the client requests? Well, that’s not the case. They set both sell or buy quote, which is offered to the clients.

While trading with Dealing Desk brokers, the clients cannot see the real interbank market rates. However, as there is always stiff competition between brokers, the rates provided by the Dealing Desk brokers are close or sometimes the same as the interbank rates. Hence, the exchange rates are not a matter of concern.

Working of Dealing Desk brokers

Comprehending the working of Dealing Desk brokers is quite simple. Let’s say that a trader wants to buy one standard lot (100,000 units) of USD/CAD with a Dealing Desk broker. Once the request for a buy is sent to the brokers, the following are the scenarios that take place.

Firstly, to fill the order, the broker will try to match the order with their other clients who are willing to sell at that price. If they do not find any sell order, they route the trade to its liquidity providers, a sizeable entity who is always on the go to buy or sell a financial asset.

However, still, if there are no matching orders, they end up taking the opposite of the trader’s trade.

What is a No Dealing Desk broker?

As the name pretty much suggests, these are the set of brokers who do pass their clients’ orders through a Dealing Desk. Meaning, they do not take the opposite trade of their clients. To put it in simple words, No Dealing Desk brokers act like bridge builders. They simply link two different trading parties.

Since these brokers connect the clients directly through the Interbank Market (Banks, Hedge Funds, Mutual Funds, etc.) they usually charge some commission from the clients, or they slightly increase the spreads.

This completes the lesson on types of brokers. And in the next lesson, we shall do a comparison between these two brokers to give you an idea of which broker one must choose. Don’t forget to take the quiz below before you go.

[wp_quiz id=”53810″]
Categories
Forex Daily Topic Forex Price-Action Strategies

Daily-H4 Combination – Rather Mechanical than Emotional

 

 

 

In today’s article, we are going to demonstrate an example of a daily chart, which after having a bounce at Double Bottom support heads towards the North. However, the question is whether the daily-H4 chart combination traders find an entry or not. Let us find this out.

The chart shows that the price has had several bounces at the level of support. Without any doubt, it is a strong level of support, in which buyers would love to keep an eye on the price action around this level. A bullish reversal candle around this level, like the last one, would make them flip over to the H4 chart to go long upon breakout. We are not flipping over to the H4 chart right now. You find out the reason in a minute.

The price on the H4 chart may have consolidated but never made any breakout on the following day. The candle is called Bearish Harami. Usually, it attracts buyers. However, the daily resistance is not too far, so the buyers may not be interested in buying the pair on the daily chart.

As expected, intraday sellers pushed the price down. Then, a bullish engulfing candle forms right at the level of support. The daily-H4 combination traders are to flip over to the H4 chart. Let us flip over to the H4 chart and find out how it looks.

The chart looks bullish, but the momentum is not there. The level of resistance is far enough, which suggests that there are still some pips for the buyers to grab. The buyers are to wait for consolidation and an upside breakout to go long on the pair.

The next candle comes out as a bullish candle too. The price has covered some distance. This means the price is offering less number of pips. However, if it consolidates from right there, the buyers would still be offered a good risk-reward. Let us proceed to the next chart.

The price keeps heading towards the North. It does not offer an entry. Moreover, it even makes a breakout at the level of resistance. This means the level of support has been working with command. Matter of regret, the daily-H4 chart combination traders have not been able to take an entry in such a strong bullish market.

When things go like this, it annoys us. This is obvious. After all, we are the human being, not a machine. The thing is we often have to deal with things like a machine in the Forex market. It is hard and needs someone to be mentally strong. Whatever it is, we must work towards it.

 

Categories
Point and Figure

Point & Figure: Applied Trading Strategies and Theory

Of all the chart styles and trading styles I’ve used in my years of trading, Point & Figure is by far the least stressful and most profitable I’ve ever used. Point & Figure, for a trader, I believe, is the most stress-free form of charting available.

Bearish Catapult Pattern
Bearish Catapult Pattern

Of all the chart styles and trading styles I’ve used in my years of trading, Point & Figure is by far the least stressful and most profitable I’ve ever used. Point & Figure, for a trader, I believe, is the most stress-free form of charting available.

Of all the chart styles and trading styles I’ve used in my years of trading, Point & Figure is by far the least stressful and most profitable I’ve ever used. Point & Figure, for a trader, I believe, is the most stress-free form of charting available.

There is no need for economic reports or balance sheets. Point & Figure is concise, logical, and it eliminates guesswork and emotion. It is the most scientific and fact-based chart form. From an analysis perspective, I believe chart forms that include time, volume, and price are superior to Point & Figure (Japanese Candlesticks and American Bar Charts). From a trading perspective, Point & Figure is superior to all. I believe this because trading is an emotional career, and the more we can filter out the stimuli that cause emotional reactions, the better traders we become.

This section will review common patterns and strategies for Point & Figure charts. These are limited to 3-box reversal charts. I have debated whether to write about 1-box and 2-box reversal charts, but I have decided against it. The reason is that I do not use them, I stick with 3-box reversal charts only for Forex markets.

The following are chart patterns, as described in the books I’ve identified as sources at the end of these articles. Many of these patterns I’m going to show are from Dahlquist and Kirkpatrick’s phenomenal book, Technical Analysis – The Complete Resource for Financial Market Technicians (3rd Edition). If you want to get an understanding of how vital and powerful Point & Figure is, compare the size of the Point & Figure chapter against all the other sections in that book (consequently, that book is part of the required reading for the CMT certification.

I have ping-ponged the idea of skipping some of the patterns in Dahlquist’s and Kirkpatrick’s book because some of the patterns were determined to be ineffective in their cited research. The sources Kirkpatrick and Dahlquist’s reference showed pattern results in equity markets. Equity markets and Forex markets are not the same, so while some of the patterns described in Technical Analysis indicate they should be ignored, I am going to include them because they may work better in Forex markets. You will find this a constant throughout technical analysis literature: the positive expectancies of patterns, strategies, and theories have almost exclusively been tested in equity markets.

 

Trap Patterns

I am starting off our study with a pattern that you will frequently encounter. Trying to avoid them is near impossible, but because losses are extremely limited in Point & Figure, even successive traps generate minimal losses compared to gains. But I believe it is imperative to understand that traps do occur, they can be frequent, and you will have to get used to them. There are two types of traps, bull traps, and bear traps. Traps occur when a breakout from a multiple top or bottom creates an entry, but price changes direction, and the next column generates a trade entry on the opposite side of the trade.

Bull Trap Pattern
Bull Trap Pattern

Bull Trap: Bull traps occur when price breaks a multiple top and creates a buy entry, but then the X column reverses to an O column that creates a new short entry.

Bear Trap Pattern
Bear Trap Pattern

Bear Trap: Bear traps occur when price breaks a multiple bottom and creates a short entry, but then the O column reverses to an X column that creates a new buy entry.

 

Rising Bottoms

Rising Bottoms Pattern
Rising Bottoms Pattern

A rising bottom pattern may look like a regular double top pattern, but it is different. It is different because of the columns of Os in this pattern. The Rising Bottoms pattern has at least four columns with sequential higher lows. The last O column must have a higher low than the first column of Os, and the previous X column must have a higher low than the first X column. The long entry occurs when the double top is broken.

 

Declining Tops

Declining Tops Pattern
Declining Tops Pattern

The Declining Tops pattern is the inverse of the Rising Bottoms pattern. The Declining Tops pattern has at least four columns with sequential lower highs. The last X column must have a lower high than the first column of Xs, and the previous O column must have a lower high than the first O column. The short entry occurs when the double bottom is broken.

 

Split Tops and Bottoms

Split Bottom Pattern
Split Bottom Pattern
Split Top Pattern
Split Top Pattern

Split Tops and Bottoms generally occur in the form of Split Triple Tops and Split Triple Bottoms. Split Tops and Bottoms have a ‘gap’ in between the tops and bottoms. How many columns do you consider in the formation of a Split Top or Bottom? It is generally believed that 6 to 10 columns are appropriate for finding Split Tops and Bottoms. We trade Split Tops and Bottoms patterns the same way we trade any other multiple top or bottom.

 

Triangles

Triangles
Triangles

Triangles are common patterns you will find on Point & Figure charts. But it is important to remember that just because price breaks through a triangle, that doesn’t mean that we take an immediate entry on the break – we still have to wait for a multiple top or bottom to be broken.

 

Catapults

Bullish Catapult Pattern
Bullish Catapult Pattern

Catapults can be a somewhat confusing pattern, but they are compelling. The Catapult Pattern was one of the few patterns in Technical Analysis that generate equally positive returns on the short side of equity markets as it did on the long side. The strength of these patterns is related to the psychological component of trading. Catapults generally show up after a trendline break or after multiple top or bottom (at least a triple top/bottom or a split triple top/bottom). Catapults are most often pullback/throwback trades, and that is why they are so powerful.

 

Spike Patterns

Bearish Spike Pattern
Bearish Spike Pattern
Bullish Spike Pattern
Bullish Spike Pattern

Spike Patterns (along with Pole Patterns) are the only patterns that have a small amount of subjectivity and interpretation. Even Dalquist and Kirkpatrick could not identify consensus from other Point & Figure experts on what constitutes a Spike Pattern. A spike pattern is a massive column that is around 15 to 20 boxes in length. This is my absolute favorite pattern because it has such an enormous reward and minimal risk. This is also only one of two patterns (the other being the Pole Pattern), where the entry does not require a multiple top or bottom. Spike patterns are entered immediately on the reversal column.

 

Pole Patterns

Pole Pattern
Pole Pattern

Pole patterns are hands down the most subjective pattern in Point & Figure. The problems with identifying with what qualifies as a Pole comes down to broad interpretation. A Pole is very much like a Spike Pattern in that it’s a substantial column, but it is smaller than a Spike. Poles are any column that is less than sixteen boxes but also more significant than ‘normal’ size columns. One of the identifying factors of a Pole Pattern is the same as a Spike Pattern: they show up at the end of swings. Trading a Pole Pattern is relatively simple. All we do is measure the length of the Pole with a Fibonacci retracement tool (doesn’t matter where you start) and then enter long or short when price moves beyond the 50% level.

 

 

Sources:

Dorsey, T. J. (2013). Point and figure charting: the essential application for forecasting and tracking market prices (4th ed.). Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons.

Kirkpatrick II, C. D., & Dahlquist, J.R. (2016). Technical Analysis: The Complete Resource for Financial Market Technicians (Third). Old Tappan, NJ: Pearson.

Plessis, J.J. (2012). Definitive Guide to Point and Figure – a comprehensive guide to the theory (2nd ed.). Great Britain: Harriman House Publishing.

DeVilliers, V., & Taylor, O. (2008). Point and figure charting. London: Financial Times/Prentice Hall.

Categories
Forex Course Forex Course Guides

Forex Course 1.0 – Complete Guide

Hello Readers!

Hello Readers!

Hello Readers!

If you have been following us lately, you must have known that providing quality trading education is the number one motto for us at Forex Academy. With this being our principal mission, we have rolled out an in-house course that covers every single thing about Forex Trading. We want to primarily thank you all for the amazing response we have got on the first part of that course. This will only motivate us to provide more quality content.

This piece of article will help you in finding any particular concepts or for a quick overall revision. Basically this is a quick navigation guide of Forex Course 1.0.

  1. Introduction To The Forex Market – Link
  2. Currency Pairs – Link
  3. Mechanism Of Buying And Selling – Link
  4. Liquidity of The Forex Market – Link
  5. Different Ways Of Trading – Link
  6. How Does Profit & Loss Take Place – Link
  7. Right Currency Pair To Buy & Sell – Link
  8. The Concept Of ‘Pip’ – Link
  9. Lots & Its Different Types – Link
  10. Various Order Types – Link
  11. First Step In Your Trading Journey – Link
  12. General Myths About Forex – Link
  13. Different Trading Sessions – Link
  14. Tokyo Session – Link
  15. London Session – Link
  16. New York Session – Link
  17. Best Time To Trade The Forex Market – Link
  18. Forex market’s hierarchy – Link
  19. Forex Market Movers – Link
  20. Perks Of Trading Forex – Link
  21. Stock Market & The Forex Market – Link
  22. Margin Trading Fundamentals – Link
  23. Balance & Rollover – Link
  24. Unrealized P/L and Realized P/L – Link
  25. Margin Requirement & Required Margin – Link
  26. Used Margin and Equity – Link
  27. Free Margin – Link
  28. Margin Level – Link
  29. Margin Call & Margin Call Level – Link
  30. Stop Out Level In Margin Trading – Link
  31. Refresher – Margin Trading – Link
  32. Leverage & Margin – Link

We hope you find this comprehensive guide useful. Let us know if you have any questions regarding Course 1.0 in the comments below. Cheers!

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave Forex Market Analysis

DAX Could Keep Making New Highs- An Elliott Wave Scenario Planning

The German index DAX 30 contains the 30 biggest German public companies traded in the Deutsche Böerse. In this article, we will review what to expect from the German index for the coming weeks.

The German index DAX 30 contains the 30 biggest German public companies traded in the Deutsche Böerse. In this article, we will review what to expect from the German index for the coming weeks.

The German index DAX 30 contains the 30 biggest German public companies traded in the Deutsche Böerse. In this article, we will review what to expect from the German index for the coming weeks.

The Big Picture

DAX 30, in its two-week chart, shows the price action progress of the index from the lowest level it touched in early March 2009. Once the DAX found buyers at the 3,585.8 points, the price rallied until 13,602 points when the German index completed the wave III labeled in black.


Since the March 2009’s low, the price moved in a bullish impulsive sequence that is still incomplete. The German index has already completed three waves of Primary degree, labeled in black. Currently, the price is running in its wave IV, also labeled in black.

The First Scenario

As we discussed in a previous article, scenarios allow us to analyze the likelihood of different “what if?” viewpoints.

The first possible scenario showed on the daily chart consists if wave IV is complete with the corrective move as an (A)-(B)-(C) sequence ended at 10,279.1 points.

Thus, a first approximation to the current path could be a possible ending diagonal pattern in progress. If this scenario is valid, the DAX should be moving in a wave (3) (labeled in blue), and we must assume that this wave is incomplete.

Consequently, the next leg should have a limited decline, and bringing the way for a new bullish movement as a wave (5).

The Alternative Count

The second scenario proposes an alternative count. In this case, the daily chart shows the price action moving in an incomplete wave (B), labeled in blue.

In this context, as the wave (B) is incomplete, the price action is running in an internal leg identified as wave C labeled in green. At the same time, wave C is incomplete and should finish the waves ((iv)) and ((v)) of Minute degree labeled in black.

According to the Elliott Wave Principle, under this scenario, DAX could be developing an irregular flat formation. This structure is characterized by following an internal sequence divided into 3-3-5, and the price tends to surpass the previous relevant high, in this case, located at 13,602 points.

If this scenario is valid, the price should develop a downward wave (C), which could drive to DAX to re-test the zone of the last Christmas low at 10,279 points.

The Conclusion

Both scenarios proposed to grant us the likelihood of a marginal upside and, then, a corrective move. However, the extension of the next path will confirm the Elliott wave structure that corresponds.

Probably, DAX will extend its gains over the 14,000 points, reaching a new all-time high before starting a deeper corrective move. This movement to the upside could emerge as a three or five wave structure, depending on which scenario is right, as stated above.

Categories
Forex Economic Indicators Forex Fundamental Analysis

Forex Fundamental Indicator – What you need to know about the GDP & GDP Growth

There are several components that make up fundamental analysis, but one of the most influential indicators is The Gross Domestic Product and the GDP growth rate. GDP is a well-known metric of economics and is one of the most important components when doing your fundamental analysis due diligence of a currency pair.

There are several components that make up fundamental analysis, but one of the most influential indicators is The Gross Domestic Product and the GDP growth rate. GDP is a well-known metric of economics and is one of the most important components when doing your fundamental analysis due diligence of a currency pair.

There are several components that make up fundamental analysis, but one of the most influential indicators is The Gross Domestic Product and the GDP growth rate. GDP is a well-known metric of economics and is one of the most important components when doing your fundamental analysis due diligence of a currency pair.

What is GDP

The Gross Domestic Product is defined as a “monetary measure of the market value of all the final goods and services produced in a specific time period, often annually”- Wikipedia

This is the total economic activity generated by both private and public companies within a country in a specific time period.

Nominal GDP vs. Real GDP

Nominal GDP is the market value of all goods and services produced in an economy with inflation adjustments. Real GDP is the Nominal GDP, which has been adjusted for inflation.

Components of the GDP

The GDP is broken down into four components and is an indication of what a country is good at producing: Personal consumption expenditures of goods and services, business investments, government expending, and net exports of goods and services.

Personal Consumption expenditures

Consumer spending is one of the main contributors to production and is the best way to compare using data from different years. This is subdivided by the BEA into goods and services.

Goods are further subdivided into durable and non-durable goods. Durable goods are cars and furniture, for example, and have a lifespan of three or more years. Non-durable goods are fuel, clothing, food, etc.

Services include commodities that cannot be stored are consumed when purchased.

Business investments

This includes purchases that companies make to produce consumer goods, and not every purchase is counted as purchases must go to creating new consumer products. Again the BEA divides this component into two subcomponents;

Fixed Investment – It is a non-residential investment that consists of business equipment like software, capital goods, and manufacturing equipment, and this also includes commercial real estate construction and residential construction. This component is based on monthly shipment data from the BEA durable goods order report.

Change in private inventory – this is how many companies will add to their inventories of goods they plan to sell. As orders increase, companies may not have enough goods in stock and therefore order more to ensure supply and the increase in private inventories contributes to GDP. If there is a decrease in inventory orders, then companies will halt manufacturing, and if it persists, then staff reductions are next.

Government spending

This is an indication of the size of government across countries. There is a large variation in this indicator and highlights the countries’ approach to delivering public goods and services.

Net exports of goods and services

Imports and exports have an opposite effect on GDP as exports add to the GDP and imports subtract from the GDP data.

 

The economic reports

The economic reports of the GDP cover quarter or annual data periods, and this data is reviewed periodically until the final GDP data is released. There are some countries that release this data on a monthly basis, like the USA. However, the majority opt to release this data quarterly and annually.

Analyzing the DATA

The economic reports of the Gross Domestic Product are such an integral measure of economic activity that it is a vital component of fundamental analysis in a currency pair. The GDP data is a key measure in determining the strength of a country’s economy and hence the strength of its currency. By comparing the two sets of data on both currencies and comparing each set of GDP data to that of previous releases. This comparison helps to determine which of the two currencies is stronger, and enjoying a strong economy.

When analyzing this data, it is necessary to compare like for like economies as each country is at a different level of development. When we look at developing economies, we can anticipate seeing annual growth rates that exceed the norm, and for the emerging economies, annual growth rates can climb to double digits.

What is the GDP Growth Rate

The GDP growth rate measures how fast an economy is growing and is the next comparison, which is necessary in order to evaluate the previous years’ data is in line with the previous years for the same period. This collection of data shows the expansion or contraction of economic activity within a country.

What determines growth

A nation’s GDP growth rate determines its economic health. If the growth rate is positive, it indicates that the wealth of the nation is improving, and the economy is doing well. If the GDP growth rate is negative, meaning it has fallen below the previous period, it is a clear indication that the economy is declining. This decline in the GDP growth rate has serious ramifications as unemployment rises with the downturn of production.

Economic reports

The GDP economic reports are a vital measure of economic activity and integral to the fundamental analysis for any currency pair you wish to trade. This data is vital in determining the benefits of a particular economy and the strength of its currency. By comparing this data to previous years or periods, one is able to ascertain the progression of the expansion or contraction of the economic activity and thus evaluate if it is equivalent to the same period of previous years.

Impact on currency

The GDP growth rates are a massive driving factor in a currency’s performance because of the results that economic activity has on a currency. This means that higher levels of economic activity will generate a higher demand for a specific currency, and an increase in economic activity will also generate an increase in the total value of that economy.  The more value that a specific country’s economy has, the higher the value of its currency. What traders are looking at when analyzing this data is the difference found between the two currencies’ growth rates. As a rule of thumb, the currency which has a higher growth rate will generally experience an appreciation of its currency.

 

Sources of information on GDP

Most nations release their GDP data on a monthly, quarterly, and annual basis, and in the U.S., it is the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) that publishes an advanced release of this data.

When one is contemplating doing their own fundamental analysis, it is imperative to take into account the effect that a country’s GDP will have on its currency strength and the importance of measuring the data rate from previous periods. The GDP data is closely monitored as it defines the movements of an economy is a straightforward way.

Links to GDP information resources:

IMF

https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2019/02/weodata/index.aspx

OECD

https://data.oecd.org/gdp/gross-domestic-product-gdp.htm

USA

https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Europe

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Main_Page

UK

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp

Canada

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/190531/dq190531a-eng.htm

Japan

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/release/tables?rid=269&eid=155790#snid=155791

China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/statisticaldata/Quarterlydata/

Australia

https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/5206.0

New Zealan­­­­d

https://www.stats.govt.nz/indicators/gross-domestic-product-gdp

 

Categories
Forex Daily Topic Point and Figure

Point & Figure Charts: Introduction

Point & Figure Charts

Months on Boxes
Months on Boxes

Point & Figure Charts

Point & Figure Charts

If the only chart style you have ever been familiar with is Japanese candlesticks or American bar charts, then no doubt Point & Figure charts will look very foreign. They have the appearance of random and new while also being very organized and very old looking. Point and Figure charts are the earliest known forms of technical charting that we know of, and many civilizations have generated some Point and Figure charts out necessity. Another concept that may be difficult to grasp if you are new to price action only chart styles is that Point and Figure charts are an intraday charting style, but is void of any time component. Live data is necessary when using Point and Figure charts. The fact that Point and Figure is an intraday chart style will confound most people who are familiar with charts that utilize the component of time, like Japanese candlesticks. Most of you who are learning about Point and Figure charts will assume that Point and Figure is a long term chart form. It is tough to create the mindset that time is not a factor in Point and Figure. But let’s get to the chart.

 

Point & Figure Chart Basics – Box Size and Reversal Amount

Point & Figure charts are represented by a Box Size and a Reversal Amount. Boxes are represented as Xs and Os. The trader or analyst determines the Box Size. Depending on the market you are trading and the Reversal Amount, the Box Size will vary from one market and instrument to the next. I will provide a table with the box sizes I use in my trading at the end of this article. On a Point & Figure chart, Xs and Os represent price direction. Xs, often colored green, represent price moving up. Os, usually colored red, represent price moving down.

The trader or analyst also defines the Reversal Amount. Historically, Point & Figure charts were 1-box Reversal charts. Today, 3-box reversal charts are the most common. There is no limit on the number of boxes required for a reversal. I only use 3-box reversal charts – they perform exceptionally well in Forex markets. The Reversal Amount dictates how many boxes price needs to move to print a new column of Xs or Os. Let’s look at the Box Size and Reversal Amount on the chart below.Box Size & Reversal Amount

Box Size & Reversal Amount

Pair Box Size (in pips) Pair Box Size (in pips)
AUDCAD 20 GBPAUD 40
AUDCHF 20 GBPCAD 40
AUDJPY 20 GBPCHF 20
AUDUSD 10 GBPJPY 20
CADJPY 20 GBPNZD 40
CHFJPY 20 GBPUSD 20
EURAUD 40 NZDCAD 20
EURCAD 20 NZDJPY 20
EURCHF 20 NZDUSD 20
EURGBP 20 USDCAD 20
EURJPY 20 USDJPY 20
EURNZD 40 USDCHF 20
EURUSD 20

 

How much time does it take for a column to change from X to O?

Your transition to a price action only chart from a Japanese candlestick chart is going to continually be hampered by continuing to think that ‘time’ has someplace on a Point & Figure chart. You will look at a chart and say to yourself, ‘Well, that column of Xs has been there for a while, it can’t move anymore, it will probably reverse.’ While the concept of time is not used, some pieces of software will allow you to imprint the month on the chart where the month’s number will appear at the price level it was trading at when the month started. This can give those who are transitioning to Point & Figure as a new chart style some ‘grasp’ of time. See below.

Months on Boxes
Months on Boxes

Some traders may find having the month displayed as a benefit. Is it useful? I think so. It does at least give a sort of perspective of time and how long something has remained in a single column or how many reversals have been printed on the screen. Additionally, cycle analysis teaches that we often see some of the highest probabilities of trend changes or corrective moves occurring at the start of a new month. If we observe a new month starting near an extreme high or low, we could be looking at an imminent reversal with at least a high probability short term trade option.

 

Trend Lines and Patterns

Another concept that people new to a price action only chart style might find difficult to understand is that P&F charts are always in a bear or bull market. And depending on the time frames you trade on a Japanese candlestick chart, Point & Figure charts may change bull and bear trends frequently or infrequently. Two types of trendlines can be drawn on a Point & Figure chart:

  1. Objective (requires only one point to draw).
  2. Subjective (requires two or more to draw).
Trendlines
Trendlines

Objective Trend Lines or Dominant Angles are also called 45-degree angles. Dominant angles only require one point to be drawn, and they are always drawn from O to X or X to O (in 3-box reversal charts) – and always to the column right next to eachother. The software I am using for these articles is called Optuma by Market Analyst. In Optuma’s software, they auto-draw some of the dominant trend lines. Subjective trendlines are drawn the same way you would draw any other trendline on a Japanese candlestick chart. I rarely, if ever, utilize subjective trendlines. In some of the strategies I will go over, the dominant/45-degree trendlines are useful in determining the direction of the trading you should take.

Patterns such as flags and pennants will show up on Point & Figure charts just like you would see on Japanese candlestick charts. The same principles that we would apply in trading continuation patterns like flags and pennants are the same on a Point & Figure chart. There are some stark differences between the breakouts of a pattern on a candlestick chart versus a Point & Figure chart. There is a primary difference between how we treat breakouts of patterns and trendlines on a Point & Figure chart versus a candlestick chart.

 

Most Important Rule To Follow

                There is one primary rule that must be followed when trading on Point & Figure charts.

Only Enter Trades After Multipletops/Multiplebottoms have been broken.

I’ve said that Point & Figure charts are unambiguous. The entry rules in Point & Figure reinforces that statement. When a multiple top appears, the entry is always on the next X above the multiple top. When multiple bottoms appear, the entry is always on the next O below the multiple bottom. See the charts below:

Double Top & Double Bottom
Double Top & Double Bottom
Multiple Tops and Bottoms
Multiple Tops and Bottoms

A question often arises when an X or O breaks a trendline: do you enter a trade when the trendline is broken? It depends. The entry rules of multiple tops and multiple bottoms still apply. Even if the price breaks a trendline, a multiple top or bottom needs to be broken to take an entry. Further discussion into entry rules and entry strategies will be discussed in further articles.

 

Sources:

Dorsey, T. J. (2013). Point and figure charting: the essential application for forecasting and tracking market prices (4th ed.). Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons.

Kirkpatrick II, C. D., & Dahlquist, J.R. (2016). Technical Analysis: The Complete Resource for Financial Market Technicians (Third). Old Tappan, NJ: Pearson.

Plessis, J.J. (2012). Definitive Guide to Point and Figure – a comprehensive guide to the theory (2nd ed.). Great Britain: Harriman House Publishing.

DeVilliers, V., & Taylor, O. (2008). Point and figure charting. London: Financial Times/Prentice Hall.

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave Forex Market Analysis

Dollar Index Long Term Wave Analysis

The US Dollar Index (DXY) from last October shows signs of exhaustion of the bullish cycle that started in February 2016. What says us the Elliott Wave Principle about the next path of the US Dollar? In this article, we will discuss what to expect for the Greenback.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) from last October shows signs of exhaustion of the bullish cycle that started in February 2016. What says us the Elliott Wave Principle about the next path of the US Dollar? In this article, we will discuss what to expect for the Greenback.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) from last October shows signs of exhaustion of the bullish cycle that started in February 2016. What says us the Elliott Wave Principle about the next path of the US Dollar? In this article, we will discuss what to expect for the Greenback.

Fundamental Perspective

The Federal Reserve, during the last FOMC meeting, realized on December 11, decided to keep the interest rate at 1.75% by letting it unchanged for the second consecutive month.

The FED’s Chairman Jerome Powell, in his latest statement, indicated that the current monetary policy is adequate to sustain the expansion of economic activity in the United States. On the other hand, the labor market conditions remain stronger, and inflation continues in the 2% target.

In its projections for next year, the committee members do not visualize any further cut changes in the reference rate.

Technical Perspective

Dollar Index (DXY), in its weekly chart, shows the price action developing a downward corrective structure. This bearish structure began on January 03, 2017, when the DXY reached the level 103.82.

Until now, DXY has carried out two internal waves, which we identified as wave ((A)), and ((B)) labeled in black. In the weekly DXY chart, we observe that wave ((A)) progressed in five waves.

According to the Elliott Wave Principle, the formation developed by DXY should correspond to a corrective structure that presents the characteristics of a zigzag pattern. A zigzag formation is characterized by a 5-3-5 internal sequence.

The graph below shows the daily DXY chart, which reveals a bullish sequence that develops into three internal waves, labeled in blue as (A), (B), and (C), which corresponds to the complete movement of upper-degree, identified as wave ((B)).

Likewise, we recognize how the price developed a structure in the form of an ending diagonal, that in terms of the Elliott Wave Theory, appears typically in waves “5” or “C.”

On the other hand, the pierce and closing below the August 2019 low at 97.17, make us suspect that the price could be making a change from the upward cycle started in February 2018 to a downward trend.

This movement could start the third internal move of the corrective wave, which should be developed in five waves.

Our Forecast

The 4-hour chart shows DXY has completed its first bearish motive wave labeled as (1) in blue. Once its five internal segments has ended, the price bounded off from the level of 96.59 on December 12.

Short term, we expect a bullish rebound in three waves that could reach the zone between 97.94 and 98.44. From this zone, the Greenback could find sellers waiting to activate their short positions.

The long-term target is located in the zone of the 90 points as a psychological round-number level. Further, this zone is the area of the 2018’s lows. This target area coincides with the lower line of the downward channel.

The invalidation level of the bearish scenario is located at level 99.67, which corresponds to the highest level reached in early October 2019.

Categories
Forex Price Action Point and Figure

Point & Figure Introduction: The Problem with Japanese Candlesticks

Problems with Japanese Candlestick Analysis

Problems with Japanese Candlestick Analysis

Problems with Japanese Candlestick Analysis

One of the big buzz words or methodologies used in trading over the past ten years has been the term and/or style called ‘Price Action Trading.’ It is also known as ‘Naked Trading’ or, much less known as ‘Dynamic Impulse Trading.’ Price Action Trading is a style and methodology that teaches students to utilize candlesticks charts with no lagging indicators or oscillators. Students learn to utilize very little in the form of any tools beyond trend lines, subjective horizontal support/resistance, and pattern recognition. Not surprisingly, many people fail at Price Action Trading. I would venture that out of all the methodologies taught to new traders and analysts, Price Action Trading with Japanese candlesticks causes more new trader accounts to go bust than almost any other trading style or system.

The problem with Price Action Trading using Japanese candlesticks gets exacerbated the faster the time frame used. Japanese candlesticks are, believe it or not, a very advanced form of analysis that requires a significant amount of study to interpret and apply today’s financial markets properly. Traditionally, the application of Japanese candlesticks did not occur on fast time frames. Instead, they were limited to longer time frames such as weekly and monthly charts, and those are timeframes where the analysis, interpretation, and execution of Japanese candlesticks have very few equals. To make Japanese candlesticks work on fast time frames in modern markets requires the use of a myriad of supporting tools such as oscillators and indicators. The use of oscillators and indicators with Japanese candlesticks is necessary is because Japanese candlesticks are three-dimensional: price, time, and volume. Point & Figure only records price.

 

Point & Figure Analysis

For the Price Action Trader, no chart style is purer than Point & Figure because Point & Figure records only price. In Point & Figure Analysis, time is not measured or used, and volume is anecdotal. That may seem anathema to many traders, but it makes perfect sense from the perspective of a Point & Figure user. Because Point & Figure only records price moves, it makes sense why volume is anecdotal and not significant. If you think about it, the volume itself isn’t relevant unless there is a corresponding price move. Price is the only thing that matters. One of the greatest authorities and written works of Technical Analysis is de Villiers and Taylor’s Point and Figure Charting. They make a compelling case for the weight and authority of this chart and analysis style.

  • Point & Figure is logical in its application.
  • Simple and easy to master.
  • Point & Figure is void of mystery, guessing, and complications caused by subjective analysis.
  • News, economic reports, and other sources of market noise are not necessary.
  • Losses are limited while profits accrue – easy stop and profit target calculations.
  • Point & Figure signals are clear and unambiguous.
  • The method avoids and dismisses manipulation.
  • Inside information not necessary.
  • Volume manipulations are pointless and irrelevant.
  • Solo traders outperform professional money, proprietary trading firms, and traditional buy and hold investors with this method.
  • Insignificant price moves are ignored.
  • Support and resistance easy to identify.

 

Sources:

Dorsey, T. J. (2013). Point and figure charting: the essential application for forecasting and tracking market prices (4th ed.). Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons.

Kirkpatrick II, C. D., & Dahlquist, J.R. (2016). Technical Analysis: The Complete Resource for Financial Market Technicians (Third). Old Tappan, NJ: Pearson.

Plessis, J.J. (2012). Definitive Guide to Point and Figure – a comprehensive guide to the theory (2nd ed.). Great Britain: Harriman House Publishing.

DeVilliers, V., & Taylor, O. (2008). Point and figure charting. London: Financial Times/Prentice Hall.

 

 

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave Forex Market Analysis

NZDUSD Long Term Wave Analysis

The NZDUSD pair has shown signs of recovery in recent weeks. Have we to think in the buy-side for the coming weeks? In this article, we will review the probable next movement from the oceanic pair.

The NZDUSD pair has shown signs of recovery in recent weeks. Have we to think in the buy-side for the coming weeks? In this article, we will review the probable next movement from the oceanic pair.

The NZDUSD pair has shown signs of recovery in recent weeks. Have we to think in the buy-side for the coming weeks? In this article, we will review the probable next movement from the oceanic pair.

Fundamental Perspective

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), realized in November its last monetary policy decision, from where the policymakers kept the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 1%.

In the decision statement, Governor Adrian Orr stated that employment remains at high levels; however, inflation remains below the 2% target. Moreover, the RBNZ projections for the coming year 2020 pointed to stable interest rates at low levels so that inflation can be ensured to reach the target level.

The next meeting of the reserve will be in February 2020. As a consequence, the fundamental traders will have to closely monitor the evolution of macroeconomic data during the following two months.

Technical Perspective

From the technical point of view, the NZDUSD in its weekly chart moves sideways in a corrective process that found the first support in August 2015 at 0.61968.

During 2019, NZDUSD approached the lowest level of 2015, developing Elliott’s ending diagonal pattern, which found support at 0.62037 in early October.

According to the Elliott Wave Principle, a diagonal ending formation is an impulsive pattern that has an internal structure that is divided into 3-3-3-3-3. In turn, this formation can be found in a wave ‘5’ or ‘C’ within a corrective structure.

Once NZDUSD touched the level 0.62037, the pair found buyers and began to realize a bullish movement in three waves. The completion of this upward sequence makes us foresee the possibility of a new decline. Probably the next move will be in three waves.

Our Forecast

The NZDUSD pair in its 4-hour range shows the possibility of a corrective move to the area between 0.64647 and 0.64078. This zone could bring us the opportunity to incorporate us in the potential long-term next rally.

The invalidation level is placed at 0.62028, which corresponds to the lowest level reached by the NZDUSD in October 2019. Our long-term target is at 0.7558 level.

Finally, depending on the retracement level of the NZDUSD, the corrective sequence will reveal to us the strength or weakness for the next path.

Categories
Candlestick patterns Forex Daily Topic

Candlestick Trading Patterns IV – Long White Bodies

There are two kinds of price movements in the markets: Impulsive movements and corrective movements. The ideal impulsive action is characterized by a continuous rise or decline from the opening level to the closing one, this being the highest or lowest point of the period. The ideal corrective movement is described by a lateral movement in a short-range and close opening and closing levels.

There are two kinds of price movements in the markets: Impulsive movements and corrective movements. The ideal impulsive action is characterized by a continuous rise or decline from the opening level to the closing one, this being the highest or lowest point of the period. The ideal corrective movement is described by a lateral movement in a short-range and close opening and closing levels.

There are two kinds of price movements in the markets: Impulsive movements and corrective movements. The ideal impulsive action is characterized by a continuous rise or decline from the opening level to the closing one, this being the highest or lowest point of the period. The ideal corrective movement is described by a lateral movement in a short-range and close opening and closing levels.

Most trading candles can be separated into those two moves. When impulsive movement prevails, the candle shows a large body, and only visible traces of the corrective action are perceived as upper and lower wicks. Corrective-motion candles have a short body and relatively long wicks at one or both ends.

A white and large-bodied candle body is indicative of a bullish impulse, whereas a black and large-bodied one shows a bearish or selling impulse. Therefore, when one of these appears at a critical level showing the opposite direction to the prevailing trend, we have to take notice of it.

Long White Candle at a low price level

A single candlestick Is mostly not enough for a proper forecast. However, a large candlestick at the end of a severe drawdown is a warning sign that the trend might have ended. If the candlestick shows its low, touching resistance levels, that is a second clue for a reversal, and also serves as a confirmation of the support level.  A white candlestick bouncing off a trendline gives credibility to that line.

 

In the above chart, we see the retracement of the price touch the trendline and then bounce with a white candle, that might have served as a good entry point to trade long. Further up, we see that the price still obeys the line in the second retracement, in this case, with a candle with a large lower wick.

Long White body breaking resistance

A Long white-bodied candle breaking resistance levels are usually a good confirmation of that fact. As we see in the chart below, the price crossed the resistance level decisively and never looked back. This is the kind of confirmation for a bullish continuation traders need.

Long White Body as Support

A long white body sometimes is retraced to test the bulls. But, on the occasions, the price retraces all the previous candle’s advance, its body bottom acts as a support level to hold the price and maintain the trend alive. It is more common that a Fibonacci level of the candle’s retracement would stop the pullback. According to Mr. Nison, the middle of the candle body is a usual support zone.

Once the underlying trend is established, a suitable method to enter the trend is to buy at 50% retracement, with a stop-loss below the white body. That way, the risk of entry is halved while profiting from mild retracements.

Takeaway

A single white-bodied candlestick can depict great information value to a savvy trader. This impulsive candle warns about potential trend changes, confirms breakouts when breaking resistance levels, and acts as support during retracement periods, thus, also showing potential levels to jump in and profit from the newly discovered trend.

Categories
Candlestick patterns Forex Basic Strategies Forex Trading Strategies

Pairing The Hanging Man Candlestick Pattern With MACD Indicator

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

The Hanging Man is a visual candlestick pattern which is used by traders and chartists in all type of markets. The term ‘Hanging Man’ refers to the shape of the candlestick. Visually the hanging man looks like a ‘T,’ and it appears in an uptrend. The formation of this candlestick is an indication that the uptrend is losing its strength. Meaning, sellers started showing interest, and the current trend of an asset is going to get reversed. Anyone can easily predict from the name of this pattern that it is viewed as a bearish sign.

The Hanging Man candle composes of a small body and a long lower shadow with little or no upper shadow. The vital point to remember is that the hanging man pattern is a warning of the upcoming price change, so do not take it as a signal to go short. Also, trading solely based on one pattern is risky. To confirm the sign given by the Hanging Man pattern, traders must pair it with support resistance or any other trading indicator.

This pattern is not confirmed unless the price falls shortly after the Hanging Man. If the next candle closes above the high of the Hanging Man, this pattern is not valid. After the pattern, if the very next candlestick falls, then it’s a clear indication of the reversal. Now, if you see a Hanging Man candlestick and the above-discussed rules apply, you can go ahead and take the trade. But since it is crucial to have an extra confirmation, let’s pair this pattern with a technical indicator.

Pairing the Hanging Man Pattern With MACD Indicator

In this strategy, we have paired the Hanging Man pattern with the MACD indicator so that we can filter out the low probability trades. MACD stands for Moving Average Convergence and Divergence, and it is one of the most popular indicators in the market. It is essentially an oscillator that is used for trading ranges, trend pullbacks, etc. Also, this indicator identifies the overbought and oversold market conditions. In this strategy, we are using the default setting of the MACD indicator to identify the trades.

Step 1 – Confirm the uptrend first on your trading timeframe

We can’t use the Hanging Man pattern to take the buy trades. Since it is a reversal pattern, it only signals the selling trades. So first of all, find out the uptrend in any currency pair. One more primary thing to remember when trading this pattern is this – After finding a clear uptrend, if you see the market printing the Hanging Man, then try not to trade that pair. Because, in a strong trend, it’s not easy for a single candle to change the direction of the entire trend. But if you find this pattern when the uptrend is a bit choppy, it has higher chances to perform. As we can see in the image below, the uptrend in USD/CHF was not strong enough.

Step 2 - Find out the Hanging Man pattern on your trading timeframe

Some traders use two or three timeframes to trade patterns. But that’s not the right way of pattern trading. If you are an intraday trader, use only lower timeframes to identify the pattern. So the next step here is to find out the Hanging Man in this chart. Also, apply the MACD indicator. For us to go short, the MACD indicator must be in the overbought area.

As you can see in the image below, the USD/CHF Forex pair prints a Hanging Man pattern. This is the first clue for us that the buyers aren’t able to push the market higher. Soon after the crossover happened on the MACD indicator, we can say that this forex pair is in the overbought condition. So now, two forces are aligned, and they are indicating us to go short. Within a few hours, the pair rolls over, and it prints brand new lower low.

Step 3 – Entry, Take Profit & Stop Loss

We go short as soon as we see the Hanging Man candlesticks and MACD indicator at the overbought area, we can go short. In this pair, buyers were quite weak, and this is an indication for us to place deeper targets. As we suggest in every strategy, often close your position at significant support/resistance area, or when the market starts to print the opposite pattern. In this pair, we closed our full trade at 0.9844. Overall it was 7R trade, and we made nearly 140+ pips.

Placing the stop loss depends on what kind of trader you are. Some advanced traders use their intuition to close their positions, while some use logical ways such as checking the power of the opposite party. In this trade, we know that the buyers are not strong enough, so there is no need to use the spacious stop loss.

Difference Between Hanging Man and Hammer Patterns

The Hanging Man and Hammer both look the same terms of size and shape. Both of these patterns have long, lower shadows and small bodies. But the Hanging Man forms in an uptrend, and it is a bearish reversal pattern. Whereas the Hammer forms in a downtrend, and it is a bullish reversal pattern. These two patterns appear in both short and long term trends. Do not use these patterns alone to trade the market. Always use them in conjunction with some other reliable indicators or any other trading tool.

Bottom Line

Most of the professional traders never see this pattern alone as a predictor of a potential trend reversal. Because there will be times when the price action continues to move upward even after the appearance of the Hanging Man. Hence technical indicator support is required to confirm the reversal of the trend. Make sure to stick to the rules of the pattern so that you can use it to your advantage. This pattern forms in all the timeframes, but we suggest you master it on a single timeframe first. Cheers!

Categories
Forex Course

Introduction – Forex Academy’s Forex Course 2.0

In the previous course, we started off by understanding what Forex Market is actually about and went on until the concepts related to margin trading. Thank you for the fantastic response to the Course 1.0. Now, its time to step up our learning a bit and move to the next level.

In the previous course, we started off by understanding what Forex Market is actually about and went on until the concepts related to margin trading. Thank you for the fantastic response to the Course 1.0. Now, its time to step up our learning a bit and move to the next level.

In the previous course, we started off by understanding what Forex Market is actually about and went on until the concepts related to margin trading. Thank you for the fantastic response to the Course 1.0. Now, its time to step up our learning a bit and move to the next level.

In this course, we shall be discussing two of the most important topics. They are

✫ Forex Brokers

✫ Types of Analysis

Forex Brokers

If we see back in the ’90s, it was pretty difficult to participate in the retail Forex market due to its high transaction costs. Also, there were many restrictions put up by the government to the people who wanted to participate in the Forex market. However, as time passed, the CFTC (Commodities Futures Trade Commission), a U.S. regulatory agency, decided to bring an end to these complications. So, they passed a couple of bills – the ‘Commodity Exchange Act’ and the ‘Commodity Futures Modernization Act,’ which opened doors for online Forex brokers to ease the process for retail traders.

Then, with the introduction to the world wide web, it became extremely easy for small retail traders to open a forex trading account. Moreover, with an exceptional demand, thousands of Forex brokers came up to benefit from the booming Forex industry as well.

Coming to the present day, we learned about the Margin trading facility provided by the brokers. Now it is time to understand the different types of Brokers in the foreign exchange market. Hence, in this course, we shall go over everything you need to know about Forex Brokers.

Types of Analysis

In the second installment of the course, we will understand a very vital topic, which is on Types of Market analysis. Broadly speaking, there are three ways to analyze the market.

✔︎ Technical Analysis – This analysis is the study of price movement using trading tools like charts and indicators.

✔︎ Fundamental Analysis – It is the analysis of currency by considering its social, political, and economic factors.

✔︎ Sentiment Analysis – Are you under the impression that Forex market analysis is all about numbers and math? That is true to a great extent. But, on top of all those complex numbers, Forex has a close relation with human psychology too. In this type of analysis, traders understand the sentiment of other traders and try predicting the future of the market.

In this course, we will present all the types of analyses mentioned above. By the end of this course, you will also be able to understand how to combine all of these analyses and make your trades more holistic. The format will be similar to that of Course 1.0. A concept will be explained clearly in less than 500 words, and at the end of the course, you can check your learnings by taking a quick 4 – 5 question quiz.

We will start Course 2.0 by understanding the types of Brokers existing in the Forex Market. Are you excited to learn more? Stay tuned for the most amazing, simple, and informative content. Cheers!

Categories
Forex Course

33. Understanding Leverage & Its Relationship With Margin

Leverage

Leverage

Leverage

There is a close relationship between the Leverage and Margin. That is, both go hand in hand. In simple terms, the margin is used to create leverage. The meaning of leverage is similar to the margin. It is a facility provided by brokers, which allows a trader to take larger positions by investing a lesser amount than required.

Margin is expressed in percentage, while Leverage is expressed as a ratio

Leverage is the ratio between the capital a trader has in their account to the amount of capital he/she can trade. And this ratio is expressed in the form “X:1,” where X is the amount of leverage.

Expressing Margin in terms of Leverage

If a trader wishes to purchase one mini lot of a currency, they don’t need $1,000 in their account balance. Instead, they will need only a small percentage of the position size. And this percentage is referred to as Margin Requirement.

This same percentage in terms of a ratio is termed as Leverage.

For example, let’s say John wants to buy 100,000 units of USD/CAD. If the Margin Requirement is 1%, John will require only $1,000 to take this trade. That is, the Leverage for this trade would be 100:1.

Calculating the Leverage

Leverage is calculated using the below formula

Leverage = 1 / Margin Requirement

Considering the above the example,

Leverage = 1 / 0.01

Leverage = 100

Hence, the leverage will be 100:1.

Similarly, if the Margin Requirement is 2%, the Leverage will be 50:1.

Conversely, using Leverage, we can obtain the Margin Requirement as well.

Margin Requirement = 1 / Leverage

For example, if the Leverage is 500:1, the Margin Requirement  = 1 / 500 = 0.002

Hence, the Margin Requirement when Leverage is 500:1 will be 0.002 or 0.2%.

Mostly, Margin and Leverage have an inverse relationship.

Forex Margin and Stock Margin

Forex margin and Stock (Securities) margin are two completely different terms, though both are from the same trading industry.

In the Stock market, the margin is the amount a trader borrows from their broker to purchase a stock. Basically, it is like borrowing funds as a loan from their broker.

Whereas in the Forex market, the meaning of margin is different. Here, as we know, it is the amount of money a trader will have to keep aside with the broker as a deposit to open a margin position.

Hence, to sum it up, we can consider margin either as a loan provided by the brokers or as collateral collected by the respective brokerage firm.

[wp_quiz id=”52027″]
Categories
Forex Daily Topic Forex Price-Action Strategies

An Old Theory about Support/Resistance

Support and Resistance are the two extremely important components in financial trading. Price action traders rely on them as a critical component of their trading strategies.

Support and Resistance are the two extremely important components in financial trading. Price action traders rely on them as a critical component of their trading strategies.

Support and Resistance are the two extremely important components in financial trading. Price action traders rely on them as a critical component of their trading strategies.

Ideally, 90% of the indicators are able to reveal support and resistance levels. An ancient theory of support and resistance says that support becomes resistance and vice versa and interesting point is the theory still works nowadays as well as it did in the past. In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of this long-used theory.

In the above figure, the price heads towards the North with good bullish momentum. It pauses at a level of resistance, where the price had a rejection earlier. The equation is simple here. If the price produces a bearish momentum and makes a breakout at the last swing low, the sellers are going to look for short opportunities. In case of an upside breakout, it remains buyers’ territory.

A bullish engulfing candle breaches the resistance. If the price confirms the breakout, the buyers keep dominating here. It seems that the sellers do not have any reasons to be optimistic soon.

The breakout level holds the next candle, as well. This move is a confirmed breakout. However, the buyers are to wait for price consolidation, which gives them a level of support to set stop loss and an upside breakout to trigger an entry.

Oh! No, a bearish Marubozu candle comes back in. All of a sudden, things look a bit different here. The buyers and the sellers both have chances. Let us find out what the price does next.

The price confirms the bearish breakout with an Inside Bar. Look at the last candle on the chart – a bearish engulfing candle forms at the resistance zone. The sellers may flip over to the H1 chart to take a short entry since it is an H4 chart.

The price takes some time to get bearish. It may have been consolidating on the H1 chart for several hours. However, it does get bearish in the end — the price heads towards the South with extreme bearish momentum. The last candle comes out as a Doji candle, which may make some sellers think about taking an exit. However, the way it has been heading towards the downside, most likely it may go towards the last swing low.

The Bottom Line

There are so many strategies, indicators, EAs in the market. It would be tough to suggest if you ask me which one works best. Then again, if I am asked to choose just one strategy, my choice would be “Sell at flipped over resistance; buy at flipped support.”

Categories
Forex Course

34. Refresher – Margin Trading & All The Topics Involved

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

We have discussed all the terminologies and concepts related to Margin Trading in the previous articles. In this article, let’s get a quick recap of all these terms with the help of examples.

Let’s go through the steps involved in margin trading with the help of these terms. This exercise will help you in understanding how all of these terms are interrelated.

Let’s say Tom wants to margin trade GBP/USD currency pair. Below is the step-by-step procedure that he should follow.

Step 1: Balance

To start taking positions in his margin account, Tom must first deposit some amount. So, let’s say he has deposited $1,000 in his margin account. Once this amount gets deposited, Tom’s Balance will be $1,000.

Step 2: Required Margin

After depositing, if Tom wishes to go long on GBP/USD, he must know the Required Margin to open a position. Assuming the price of GBP/USD is 1.3150, and he wants to open 10,000 units, the Required Margin, if the Margin Requirement is 2%, is,

Required Margin = Notional Value x Margin Requirement

In terms of USD, Notional value = 10,000 pounds x $1.3150 = $13,150

Hence, the Required Margin will be,

Required Margin = $13,150 x 0.02 (2%) = $263

Step 3: Used Margin

As we know, when there is only one position open, the Used Margin will be equal to the Required Margin. So, here, the Used Margin of Tom’s margin account will be $263.

Step 4: Equity

Initially, let us say that Tom’s trade is in breakeven (no profit no loss). The Equity for this can be obtained using the below formula,

Equity = Balance + Floating P/L

= $1,000 + $0

Hence, Equity = $1,000

Step 5: Free Margin

From Equity and Used Margin, we can calculate the Free Margin as well. It is the simple difference between the two.

Free Margin = Equity – Used Margin

= $1,000 – $263

Thus, the Free Margin turns out to be $737.

So, this is the amount Tom has left to take new positions.

Step 6: Margin Level

Taking another step forward, we can calculate the Margin Level as,

Margin Level = (Equity / Used Margin) x 100%

= ($1,000 / $263) x 100% = 380%

Hence, the Margin Level is 380%. This is an important term for brokers as they use it to determine Tom’s eligibility to take new positions. Because both the Margin Call Level and Stop Out Level fixed by the brokers will be considering the Margin Level of Tom’s Margin Account.

The values that will be changed after the price changes are Notional value, Used Margin, Floating P/L, Equity, Free Margin & Margin Level.

Now, let’s say the price of the GBP/USD dropped to 1.1000. Let us calculate the changes in the values.

Notional value

Notional value = 10,000 pounds x $1.1000

Notional value = $11,000

Used Margin

Used Margin = Notional value x Margin Requirement

= $11,000 x 0.02 = $220.

Floating P/L

(Entry Price = 1.1800)

Assuming the pip value to be $1, the Floating P/L for a movement of 800 pips will be,

Floating (Unrealized) P/L = (Current price – Entry price) x pip value

= (1.1000 – 1.1800) x 10,000 x $1

= -0.08 x 10,000 x $1

From the above calculation, the Floating P/L will be = (– $800)

Equity

Similarly, Equity will change to

Equity = Balance + Floating P/L

= $1,000 + (-$800)

Hence, the Equity will be $200.

Free Margin

Free Margin = Equity – Used Margin

= $200 – $220 = (–$20)

Margin Level

Margin Level = (Equity / Used Margin) x 100%

= ($200 / $220) x 100%

Hence, we obtain the Margin Level to be 90%.

Now, if you recall the previous two lessons, at this point, Margin Call will be initiated by the broker. And a further fall could lead to Stop Out as well.

In case if the Margin Call Level is the same as the Stop Out Level, then Tom’s Used Margin will be released, and the Floating Loss will be realized. Also, Tom’s Balance will be updated accordingly. We hope it all makes sense now. Check your learning by taking the quiz below.

[wp_quiz id=”51961″]
Categories
Forex Economic Indicators Forex Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental Analysis – A Brief Introduction

Most traders just focus and use technical analysis (TA) to make trade decisions, but they forget that trading is connected with value. The perceived value of an asset is what makes the market move up and down. And the perception of that value by the market is directly related to the fundamental information available.

Most traders just focus and use technical analysis (TA) to make trade decisions, but they forget that trading is connected with value. The perceived value of an asset is what makes the market move up and down. And the perception of that value by the market is directly related to the fundamental information available.

Most traders just focus and use technical analysis (TA) to make trade decisions, but they forget that trading is connected with value. The perceived value of an asset is what makes the market move up and down. And the perception of that value by the market is directly related to the fundamental information available.

Fundamental Analysis is simply a type of market analysis which involves studying the economic or political position of a country in order to be able to assess the relative value of currencies more effectively. In a nutshell, Fundamental analysis is the study of economic factors that influence foreign exchange rates to predict future prices.

Traders studying macroeconomic data of the major economies and try to interpret the economic events, news, and press releases with the aim of predicting future moves a currency can make. Traders must also take into account the microeconomics of a country, such as supply and demand, consumer expending, and unemployment to assess the macro trends in the currency markets and always be on the right side when trading.

Also, the different scheduled news releases that are the benchmark for fundamental analysis can create price shocks in the market when the figures do not match the analysts’ consensus. Therefore, it is critical, also, to keep track of the Economic Calendar to avoid the potential volatility the news event can produce.

So when embarking on doing your own fundamental analysis, there are a few economic indicators considered key underlying drivers. Let’s have a short glance at these basic economic indicators.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

The GDP data is used primarily to gain insight into a country’s economic strength, is calculated annually, and the broadest measure of a country’s economy. It is a representation of the value of all goods and services produced within that country over a defined period of time. The GDP data is one of the Economic Indicators which is closely monitored as it represents a countries contraction or expansion in a straightforward way, allowing the Trader to see whether a country is experiencing rapid growth or going into recession. The GDP growth rates from quarter to quarter can be the driving factors in the performance of a given currency.

Interest rates

The interest rate is one of the most critical factors that drive the Forex market. The interest rate of a country helps us to determine how the central bank is responding to the economic factors present in that country at the time. When a country is experiencing consumer inflation, the central bank will increase interest rates to curb inflation. When a country’s growth weakens, it will reduce the interest rates to spur economic growth. When a central bank changes interest rates, it creates movement in the market. It causes volatility, and if you are armed with an accurate prediction can lead to a beneficial outcome on a specific trade.

Inflation rate

Another piece of fundamental analysis data that one needs to look at is the inflation rate. This is the rate at which goods and services are valued, which changes over time. We measure inflation at both the consumer level and producer level. The producer level is defined as wholesale companies, and the consumer level is defined as households and consumers. A high rate of inflation can cause a currency value to rise as traders anticipate a rise in interest rates. The central bank, to protect consumers from excessive inflation, tends to increase the interest rates. This reduces the spending power that consumers have and thus reducing the price of goods and services.

Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate is an indication of that country’s workforce that is actively seeking employment or are currently unemployed. If a country has a high unemployment rate, then it would be considered a weakening economy and lead to the currency deprecating. Low unemployment rates indicate a strong economy and increase the demand for the currency.

The Debt-to-GDP Ratio

The debt to GDP ratio is the ratio of the public debt that a country has compared to its Gross domestic product. If a country is unable to pay back its debt, it will default, and a financial panic may erupt. The usual bar set for GDP growth is 77% if it exceeds this amount over an

Balance of trade (BOT).

The balance of trade is defined as the difference between the value of a country’s imports and exports over a set period of time. The BOT is used by economists to measure the strength of a country’s economy. A Sustained trade deficit is considered bad for the economy. Therefore, it will also hurt the valuation of its currency, whereas a strong surplus on the BOT will drive the price of the country’s currency higher.

Current account to GDP

Two components make up a country’s Balance of Payments, the current account, and capital account. The current account consists of the trade balance, the net factor income, and net cash transfers, which are all measured in the domestic currency.
When the account balance of a country is positive, that country is referred to as a net lender to the rest of the world. When the account balance is in the negative, then the country becomes a net borrower to the rest of the world. This ratio of the current account balance to the Gross Domestic Product (or % of GDP) provides the country’s ability to pay back its debt and is an indication of the country’s competitiveness in world markets.

In conclusion, when fundamental analysis data is used correctly, it is an invaluable resource for any forex trader. By looking at the bigger picture of how a country is performing, it gives an insight into how the market will move, allowing you to profit from your trades.

Categories
Forex Basics Forex Price-Action Strategies

A Story of a False Bullish Breakout

In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of a short entry that is derived from a false breakout. It contains two lessons. Let us get started.

In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of a short entry that is derived from a false breakout. It contains two lessons. Let us get started.

In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of a short entry that is derived from a false breakout. It contains two lessons. Let us get started.

The price heads towards the North and makes an upside breakout. The buyers are to keep their eyes on the pair to go long upon consolidation and bullish reversal candle at the breakout level. Let us find out what happens next.

Wow! This is a copybook corrective candle, which closes right at the breakout level. A bullish reversal candle followed by a breakout at the highest high would get the buyers engaged in buying the pair.

The buyers might not have even thought about it. They are to let the sellers dominate in the pair, while sellers should wait for the breakout confirmation and a bearish reversal candle to go short on the pair. However, they have to calculate that the last swing low is not too far.

The price keeps going towards the South without having apposite consolidation. It consolidates just before the support. The price has been bearish but has not offered any short entry on this chart. Meanwhile, it has made another bearish breakout. The sellers shall be hopeful again. Look at the chart below.

This is an explicit breakout, and the next candle confirms it. The consolidation and the price breakout at the lowest low would be a signal to go short. Let see what the price does this time.

Price action traders have been waiting for this. The price consolidates and makes another breakout. By setting Stop Loss above the resistance, an entry may be triggered right after the last candle closes.

This is how it goes. The price produces consecutive four bearish candles. The very last candle comes out as an Inside Bar. Most traders may come out with their profit; some may still hold their trade by locking some profit.

 Lessons

We learned two lessons from here

  1. False breakout usually drives the price towards the opposite direction.
  2. Risk-reward is always a factor. It does not offer an entry within the first support since risk-reward is not lucrative. It offers an entry on the second breakout, where there is not support nearby.

The Bottom Line

In the beginning, it may sound too many things to remember in price action trading. It is right to some extent. However, if we practice hard, study with the recent price behavior on the chart with as many pairs as we can, surely it will get easy for us.

Categories
Candlestick patterns Forex Daily Topic

Candlestick Trading Patterns III – The Doji, The Most Critical Candle

The Doji

The Doji

The Doji

The Doji is a special candle, not only because of its striking appearance but also because it is one of the most vital signals in trading. This figure is so important that we need to understand it very well, as it is one of the safest trading signals when properly applied.

Fig 1 – A Doji on a chart

The Doji is characterized by having the open and close at the same level while standing out for its elongated upper and lower shadows. The figure of the Doji has a precise meaning. Buyers and sellers are in a state of mental indecision. The Doji is a powerful sign of trend change. The probability of a turn increases if in addition to the Doji:

  1. The next candles confirm the Doji’s signal
  2. The market is overextended
  3. The chart does not have many Doji.

The perfect Doji has the same open and close values. Nevertheless, if both levels are separated a few pips, and the candle can still be seen as a single line, it can be considered as Doji.

The Doji is a powerful signal to detect market tops. Steve Nison says that a dog is a sign of indecision by buyers, and an upward trend cannot be sustained by undecided traders. Nison also points out that, from his experience, the Doji loses some reversal potential during downtrends. That observation may apply to the stock market but is useless in pairs trading, as they are symmetric. In this case, a bullish trend of a pair is a bearish pare on the inverse pair and vice-versa. So a Doji will always have a similar meaning: The trend is compromised.  When trading commodities, indices, or stock ETFs the trader should take this into account, though.

In view that a Doji is such a powerful signal, it is better to act upon it. Better to attend a false signal than ignore a real one. Therefore, dojis are signals to close positions, since a Doji alone does not mean a price reversal.

The Northern Doji

The northern Doji is called a Doji that shows up during a rally. According to Mr. Nisson, ” The Japanese say that with a Doji after a tall white candle, or a Doji in an overbought environment, that the market is “tired.” Therefore, as said, a Doji does not mean immediate market reversal. It shows the trend is vulnerable.

 

FIg 2 – Down Jones Industrial Average showing northern Doji.

As we can see in the chart above, a Doji after a large candle, as in the first case, is followed by a gap and a drop to the base of a previous candle that surged after a gap.  The next Doji we see was an inside bar that just acted as a retracement and continuation. In the third case, we can see two Dojis, the second being a kind of hanging man with no head. In this case, we notice that the third bearish candle is the right confirmation of the trend reversal. It is not uncommon to observe tops depicting several small bodies, one of which is a Doji.

The Long-legged Doji

Fig 3 – Long-legged Doji in a SPY Daily chart.

We already know that a small body and long upper and lower shadows is called a high wave candle. If the figure doesn’t have a body is called “long-legged Doji,” and also called “rickshaw man.” As it happens with high-wave candles, it reflects great confusion and indecision.

Gravestone Doji

The gravestone Doji is the Doji that begins and ends at the low of the day. According to Stephen Bigalow, the Japanese name is set to represent “those who died in the battle.” Gravestone Dojis are a rarity.

Fig 4 – Long-legged Doji in the UK-100 Daily chart.

 

Dragonfly Doji

The Dragonfly Doji occurs when the price moves down since the open, and then it comes back and closes at the open. When it happens after an uptrend is a variant of a hanging man.

Fig 5 – Long-legged Doji in the DAX-30 Daily chart.

Conclusions

Dojis are important figures that warn trend reversals, especially if it happens at support or resistance levels.

Dojis need confirmation for trend reversals. When that happens, they create morning star and evening star formations. They also are followed by other small bodies, creating a flat top or bottom.

A safe precaution when encountering these figures while a trade is active is to close or reduce the position or, alternatively, tight the stops.

 

Sources:

Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques, Second Edition, Steve Nison

Stephen Bigalow, Profitable Candlestick Signals

 

Categories
Forex Chart Basics Forex Daily Topic

Caution! A Big Round Number Ahead

In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an event to find out what the price may do around the big round number. A big round number plays a significant role as far as traders’ psychology is concerned. The price usually gets volatile around a big round number. It may get tough for the traders to find out entries around the big round number. Let us now dig into USDCHF recent activities around the big round number 1.00000.

In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an event to find out what the price may do around the big round number. A big round number plays a significant role as far as traders’ psychology is concerned. The price usually gets volatile around a big round number. It may get tough for the traders to find out entries around the big round number. Let us now dig into USDCHF recent activities around the big round number 1.00000.

In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an event to find out what the price may do around the big round number. A big round number plays a significant role as far as traders’ psychology is concerned. The price usually gets volatile around a big round number. It may get tough for the traders to find out entries around the big round number. Let us now dig into USDCHF recent activities around the big round number 1.00000.

The price is heading towards the North with good bullish momentum. Look at the last candle. This is one good bullish candle, which states that the buyers are dominating the pair. Do you notice anything unusual here?

Here it is. The candle breaches through the level of 1.00000. As a trader, you must not miss such a big round number. Now that the price makes a breakout, you are to wait for the breakout confirmation and a strong bullish reversal candle to go long on the pair. This might be one of the best trades in your trading life if things go accordingly.

The price comes back in. However, it still looks all right for the buyers since if we consider the spikes at the last swing high. A bullish engulfing candle closing above the last bearish candle would be the buying signal. On the other hand, if it keeps going towards the downside, the sellers may take over the baton.

The price does not produce any bullish momentum. For the last four H4 candles, it could go either way. Traders are to wait patiently since this is the game around a massive round number.

Here it comes. It has now become sellers’ territory. The candle forms right at the level of 1.00000. The level could have been a level of support. It is now a level of resistance. The sellers on the minor charts keep going short; on this chart, they are to wait for consolidation and downside breakout to ride on the next bearish wave.

It consolidates and produces a sell signal after four H4 candles. The last H4 candle suggests it may be time for the price to consolidate again. An explicit bullish breakout at the level of 1.00000, did not work for the buyers. It could happen at any level, but when we deal with a massive round number, we happen to see it more often.

The Bottom Line

The market runs on many aspects, and traders’ psychology is one of them. Many traders set their Stop Loss and Take Profit at round numbers. Thus, the price may get extra volatility around a big round number. We may get breakout even on the H4 chart, which may turn out to be a fake breakout. We must remember this every time we see a big round number.

 

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave

Forecasting with the Elliott Wave Principle

The analysis and forecast process of any financial asset can support the decision process to take any positioning on the market. However, the time dedicated to developing it could increase the cost of the trade as this grows on time. In this educational article, we will review how to analyze and make a forecast by applying the main concepts of the Elliott Wave Principle.

The analysis and forecast process of any financial asset can support the decision process to take any positioning on the market. However, the time dedicated to developing it could increase the cost of the trade as this grows on time. In this educational article, we will review how to analyze and make a forecast by applying the main concepts of the Elliott Wave Principle.

The analysis and forecast process of any financial asset can support the decision process to take any positioning on the market. However, the time dedicated to developing it could increase the cost of the trade as this grows on time. In this educational article, we will review how to analyze and make a forecast by applying the main concepts of the Elliott Wave Principle.

The Elliott Wave Principle in a Nutshell

R.N. Elliott, in his work The Wave Principle, identified a nature’s law that governs everything, from nature to human socio-economic activities. Elliott comments that the financial markets are the most important socio-economic activity, so, when someone understands that law, he can get forecasts about the phenomena under study, the financial markets, in this case.

In this context, Elliott described that price moves in two types of movements impulses and corrections, and at the same time, the price tends to repeat some specific structures and sequences.

On the one hand, impulsive movements create trends and follow a sequence of five waves. On impulses, three waves move in the direction of the primary trend and two in the opposite direction.

On the other hand, a corrective movement consists of three waves; two of them will be in the opposite move to the main trend.

This eight-waves movement creates a cycle, and when it is complete, a new cycle of the same degree will start. In other words, when a five-waves and three-waves movement is complete, a new cycle of the same extension will take place.

Elliott gave intensive importance to corrections and told us the position of the market and the outlook. Elliott’s experience drove him to identify four main types of corrections as zigzag, flat, irregular, and triangles.

Making Simplifications

In the two latest articles, we discussed how we could simplify corrective patterns in the wave analysis using some chartist patterns as flags and triangles. Also, we commented on how it can help us in our study, reducing the time elapsed to develop a forecast and, finally, a trading plan.

The Analysis Process

The basic methodology to carry on the market analysis is to analyze from a higher to lesser time frame. In other words, we can start the study from a monthly range and finish in the hourly chart. Once we have identified the market structure, we begin to define scenarios that have a probability of occurrence. The scenarios are relevant to the analysis process because, using them, we can evaluate all possible price paths and decide which one of them is the most probable.

The Heating Oil Triangle

The following chart corresponds to Heating Oil in its weekly timeframe. In the figure, we observe the bullish sequence developed in three waves, which began on January 17, 2016, at $0.8552 per gallon. The energy commodity reached its highest level on October 03, 2018, at $2.4496 per gallon.

Once Heating Oil reached its high at $2.4496, the price started to make a bearish move, that found support at $1.6436 per gallon on January 02, 2019.

After that descent, the asset found buyers at $1.6436, Heating Oil’s traders started doing market swings. We can observe this as a triangle structure, as shown in the next daily chart.

According to the Elliott Wave Theory, we know that a triangle structure has five internal segments which follow a 3-3-3-3-3 sequence. However, there is the possibility that the triangle pattern does not build a fifth inner leg.

Now, let us identify some scenarios for the next path on Heating Oil.

  • Scenario 1:The price moves down and crosses the base-line of the triangle (dark orange arrow), with a first potential profit target at $1.6719, and a second target at $1.4339 per gallon.
  • Scenario 2 (blue arrow) considers that Heating Oil drops and, then, bounces off from the base-line, but does not surpass the previous high at $2.0994. From there, the price action begins a new bearish wave that would drive the energy commodity to $1.6719 per gallon.
  • Scenario 3 (black arrow), considers that the price overcomes the resistance determined by the upper-line of the triangle and the invalidation level at $2.1374.

Conclusion

As we discussed in this article, the time dedicated to analyze and forecast a financial market is a valuable resource that could increase or reduce the hidden cost of the potential trade. As occurs in mathematical models, valid simplifications can help the analyst to reduce the time to a decision process.

Flags and triangles are simple and basic formations that can ease the market study.

Finally, the formulation of different scenarios provides a wide range of options about the next potential paths of the price action. Also, these scenarios create different answers facing the question of what if the market does that?

Categories
Forex Basic Strategies

No Breakout Confirmation or No Consolidation Means No Entry

Price Action traders crave for the breakout. Breakout is one of the most important components of price action trading. However, there is another equally important thing, which is breakout confirmation. Since the Forex market is very action-packed, it is often found that the price does not come up to the breakout level to confirm the breakout. It consolidates and produces a reversal candle to offer entry. The question is, does it always consolidate and offer an entry.

Price Action traders crave for the breakout. Breakout is one of the most important components of price action trading. However, there is another equally important thing, which is breakout confirmation. Since the Forex market is very action-packed, it is often found that the price does not come up to the breakout level to confirm the breakout. It consolidates and produces a reversal candle to offer entry. The question is, does it always consolidate and offer an entry.

Price Action traders crave for the breakout. Breakout is one of the most important components of price action trading. However, there is another equally important thing, which is breakout confirmation. Since the Forex market is very action-packed, it is often found that the price does not come up to the breakout level to confirm the breakout. It consolidates and produces a reversal candle to offer entry. The question is, does it always consolidate and offer an entry.

Let us find out.

The price headed towards the South and seems to have found its support. It has been heading towards the North now. The price is at the last swing high. Thus, the buyers are to wait for an upside breakout and breakout confirmation to take a long entry.

The price makes a breakout, but at the time of confirmation, it comes back in. Thus, the breakout is void. It goes towards the upside again. This time it gets rejected from the last swing high. Thus, the price does not make any breakout here.

This time it does. A huge bullish engulfing candle breaches the last swing high. That is a Double Top resistance as well. The buyers are to wait for the price to come back at the breakout level and get a bullish reversal candle right there. Alternatively, it may consolidate somewhere in between the highest high and the breakout level.

It keeps going up. Let us not give up but keep eyeing on the pair. It has gone too far up. It may not come back at the breakout level. It may rather consolidate. Let us find out what it does.

It keeps going towards the North. There is no sign of consolidation yet. A swing high on the chart is evident, which is nearby. As things stand, risk-reward is getting less lucrative.

As expected, the price has found its resistance before the level of the last swing high. The price action gets choppy. Traders are to wait for the price to give them the next direction. In a word, price action traders do not keep this kind of chart on their watch list.

The Bottom Line

A chart looked extremely good and was about to give us an entry ended up being a choppy chart. What more frustrating is it went towards the desired direction, but it did not offer us entry. Some traders may think it would be good if an entry is taken. At least some pips can be achieved. Please note, do not even think about it. After breakout, the price must confirm the breakout or consolidate. To sum up the whole equation, no confirmation or no consolidation means no entry.

Categories
Candlestick patterns Forex Daily Topic

Test your knowledge about Candlesticks

After our discussion about short-bodied candlestick in our article

After our discussion about short-bodied candlestick in our article

After our discussion about short-bodied candlestick in our article

Candlestick Trading Patterns II – Everything you need to know about Single Candlestick Signals

Here you can test your newly acquired knowledge about the matter. If you haven’t read it, please do so before the quiz.

 

 

[wp_quiz id=”51631″]

 

 

Reference: The Candlestick Course – Steve Nison

Categories
Forex Course

32. Understanding Stop Out Level In Margin Trading

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

In the last lesson, we saw how Margin Level was found to be useful for giving meaning to Margin Call Level. Similar to the previous lesson, in this lesson, we shall be discussing another term that involves the dependency of the Margin Level. This lesson will be dealing with the understanding of what Stop Out Level is and also the implications and consequences of it.

Stop Out Level, and Margin Call Level have almost got the same meaning. There is only a thin line difference between these two. Hence, understanding the Margin Call Level is critical to comprehend Stop Out Level.

What is Stop Out Level?

Stop Out Level is a level that is set by the brokers, which triggers them to take action when the Margin Level falls below this specified level (Stop Out Level). That is, when the Margin Level breaks below the Stop Out Level, the broker forcibly closes some of the trader’s position, usually without their consent. The positions are liquidated because of the unavailability of the margin in the account.

Before the broker closes the positions, the trader is first intimated that their Margin Level has significantly reduced and is at risk. This intimation is called Margin Call. If the Margin Level falls much more than the Margin Call Level and goes below the Stop Out Level, the positions are liquidated. And this process of liquidation is called Stop Out.

The complete flow to Stop Out

If we were to dig deeper, the dependency of Stop Out level drops down to the basic concepts like Balance, Margin, Floating P/L, etc.

For instance, when a trader takes a position, the above terms come into action. If the trade is in profit, the floating P/L increases, and there are no worries about the margin call and stop out as the margin level would be considerably higher than the margin call level and the stop out level. But, if the trade is running in the negative, eyes must be on the margin call level as well as stop out level. Let’s get this point clearer, with an example.

Let’s say a trader has deposited $1000 into his account and has used $200 for taking few positions. Consider the Stop Out Level to be at 20%.

If the trades are running in a loss of$970. The equity for this is calculated as:

Equity = balance + floating P/L = $1,000 + (-$970) = $30

Similarly, the margin level will be,

Margin level = (Equity/used margin) x 100% = ($30 / $200) x 100% = 15%

Now, since the margin level has gone below the stop out level, the positions are scratched off. So, the trader will have booked a loss of $970. And the newly updated balance will be $30.

This brings us to the end of this lesson on Stop Out Level. Also, this completes all the terminologies that are involved in Margin Trading. Take the quiz below and stay tuned to learn a different lesson tomorrow. Cheers!

[wp_quiz id=”51331″]
Categories
Forex Basic Strategies

Is Drawing One Trendline Enough?

The Trendline is an excellent trading tool that the price action traders love using on their charts. Drawing trendline as accurate as it can get and adjustment with spikes are two factors that traders are to look after before using trendline. Another factor trendline traders often need to do is drawing multiple trendlines on the same chart. In this lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of that.

The Trendline is an excellent trading tool that the price action traders love using on their charts. Drawing trendline as accurate as it can get and adjustment with spikes are two factors that traders are to look after before using trendline. Another factor trendline traders often need to do is drawing multiple trendlines on the same chart. In this lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of that.

The Trendline is an excellent trading tool that the price action traders love using on their charts. Drawing trendline as accurate as it can get and adjustment with spikes are two factors that traders are to look after before using trendline. Another factor trendline traders often need to do is drawing multiple trendlines on the same chart. In this lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of that.

The chart shows that the price after finding its support at the trendline heads towards the North and makes a new highest high. Thus, this is a valid trendline. Ideally, the buyers are to wait for the price to come back to the trendline again and to produce a bullish reversal candle to go long on the pair. Let us proceed to find out what happens next.

The price does not come at the trendline. It finds its support well above the trendline and heads towards the North again. This is annoying, is not it? Do not get annoyed. Concentrate on the chart. Do you see anything interesting? Have a look at the next chart.

We can draw another trendline on the same chart since the price has a bounce and makes a new highest high. Traders are to wait again for the price to come back at the trendline and to produce a bullish reversal candle to offer them a long entry.

Wow, this time, the price comes at the trendline and produces a bullish reversal candle. Traders have been waiting for such price action. By flipping over to the next chart and an upside breakout, traders may grab some green pips.

The chart shows that the price comes back near the trendline’s support again, then heads towards the North. It consolidates hard on the minor charts, as it seems. The point here is that the price does not come at the first drawn trendline or produces a bullish reversal candle. It comes at the second drawn line, and this time, it creates the bullish reversal candle right at the trendline’s support. It heads towards the North and may have offered entry as well.

The Bottom Line

In most cases, the price does not come at the first drawn trendline. It has the tendency to come at the second drawn trendline more. It is often seen that the price obeys the third drawn trendline as well. Thus, if we are to trade on the trendline, we may keep an eye on the chart to draw a trendline as many times as we need to.

Categories
Forex Daily Topic Forex Elliott Wave

Analysis and Trading with Triangles

In our previous article, we discussed how we could simplify the zigzag and flat pattern by the chartist figure known as a flag. In this educational article, we will see how triangles can be used in wave analysis.

In our previous article, we discussed how we could simplify the zigzag and flat pattern by the chartist figure known as a flag. In this educational article, we will see how triangles can be used in wave analysis.

In our previous article, we discussed how we could simplify the zigzag and flat pattern by the chartist figure known as a flag. In this educational article, we will see how triangles can be used in wave analysis.

The Background

Within the Elliott wave theory, triangles represent one of the three basic corrective formations. Similarly, in traditional technical analysis, triangles represent consolidation and continuation formations of the trend.

Elliott defined triangles as a formation that have an internal structure subdivided into five waves following a 3-3-3-3-3 sequence. At its time, Elliott identified two triangle variations, which are classified as expansive or contractive.

In general terms, triangles represent the market indecision or the balance between the buying and selling forces.

The following chart shows the model of the triangles in their contractive and expansive variants, under the Elliott Waves theory and Traditional Technical Analysis perspective.

According to the point of view of the traditional technical analysis, we can observe that the triangle pattern is not forced to have five internal segments, as in Elliott’s wave theory. In consequence, a truncated zigzag or truncated flat structure could be simplified by a triangle pattern.

The Trading Setup

The trade configuration of a contracting triangle pattern has the following characteristics:

  • Entry Level: A buying (or selling) position will be activated if the price exceeds and closes above the swing of the previous top.
  • Profit Target: The first profit target level will take place at 78.6% of the Fibonacci expansion, while the second will be at 100%, and finally, the third profit target level will be at 127.2%.
  • Protective Stop: The invalidation level of the trade setup will be located below the lowest swing of the triangle pattern.

The trade configuration of an expansive triangle pattern has the following properties:

  • Entry Level: The trade will be activated if the price exceeds the height of the expanding triangle.
  • Profit Target: The first profit target level will be at 100% of the Fibonacci expansion. The second profit target level will be at 127.2%.
  • Protective Stop: The level of invalidation will be located below the lowest low of the expansive triangle pattern.

Examples

The following chart corresponds to the AUDUSD pair in its 12-hour timeframe. We can observe that the price action developed an expanding triangle formation, which began from mid-May 2019 and culminated in mid-July 2019.

From the chart, we detect that the expanding triangle reached its highest level at 0.70821, which corresponded to a false breakout. Subsequently, the price action resolved the next movement with a drop that took it to plunge until 0.66771.

The sell-side entry was activated once the price closed below the lowest level of the expanding triangle at 0.68317. Once activated the sales position, the price reached the first target at 0.67080.

Another possibility of entry that could be considered would be the closing below the last relevant swing, that is, the closing below 0.69105. This option could provide the trader with a higher profit compared to the risk taken compared to the original entry setup.

The next example corresponds to Silver in its daily chart. From the figure, we observe that the price made a record high early July 2016, reaching $21,225 per ounce, after this, the price action performed a corrective movement, once its found support, Silver built a tight contractive triangle.

After breaking below $18,715, Silver activated a bearish scenario that drove the price to fall to the third bearish target at $15.66 per ounce.

After having fulfilled the third bearish target, the price fell and reached $18.435 on April 17, 2017, where Silver began to build a contractive triangular structure that lasted until the end of June 2018.

Once the downward break of the long-lasting triangle occurred, we see that the price made a limited downward movement, which did not yield below $14 per ounce.

Conclusion

Based on the discussion of this article, we can conclude that regardless of the corrective structures that have three or five internal waves, these can be simplified as triangular patterns. Also, we can observe that a corrective wave or a short-range narrow triangle is likely to have an extended move that, in terms of Elliott’s wave theory, could correspond to an extended wave.

On the other hand, extensive triangular formations, or of a wide range, could lead the price to move in a range not as broad as in the previous case.

Finally, in the last example, we recognize how the alternation principle works in Elliott’s wave theory. Just as the first observed triangle is simple, and has a short duration, and the second corrective formation is extensive and complex.

Categories
Candlestick patterns Forex Daily Topic

Candlestick Trading Patterns II – Everything you need to know about Single Candlestick Signals

This article is to be dedicated to single candlestick key figures. The majority of patterns are created by more than one candle, but some particular candlestick shapes are key figures to gauge the market sentiment and spot reversals.

This article is to be dedicated to single candlestick key figures. The majority of patterns are created by more than one candle, but some particular candlestick shapes are key figures to gauge the market sentiment and spot reversals.

This article is to be dedicated to single candlestick key figures. The majority of patterns are created by more than one candle, but some particular candlestick shapes are key figures to gauge the market sentiment and spot reversals.

In every one of them we will deal with the following aspects:

  • Identification of the candlestick
  • Marker psychology interpretation
  • Criteria and use

Key Single Candlestick Figures:

  • Doji
  • Spinning top
  • High Wave Candlestick
  • Hammer
  • Hanging man
  • Shooting star

The Japanese traders call the real body “the essence of the price action.” A scientist might call it the Signal part of the message, while the shadows are the nose of the market. The relation between the body and the shadows delivers unique insights into the sentiment of the traders. Shadows show the fight between buyers and sellers to control the price. A large body and small shadows denote that one of the sides has won the battle during that interval. A short body with large shadows after an extended trend indicates the winning herd is losing steam.

Spinning tops and high wave candles

Fig 1 – Spinning tops and High Wave candles

A spinning top is a visual clue for a candle with a tiny body. The color of the body does not matter.  A spinning top without a body is called Doji, such as the second one in the figure above. The fourth one is very close to it too.

Market sentiment in spinning tops

A the smaller the body, the larger the fight between bulls and bears. It shows that no one had control of the price during this period, as the sellers pressure the price down and buyers up, a small body means no one could outweigh the other party. The demand is counteracted by fresh supply,  and vice-versa, so the market is unable to move.

High Wave Candles

Steve Nison also mentions a close relative to the spinning top, called High Wave Candle. High Wave candles also have very small bodies, but to qualify as High Wave, the formation must also have large shadows on both sides. Shadows need not be of the same size, but they must be large.

Market sentiment in a High Wave Candle

According to Mr. Nison, If indecision is the crucial sentiment on spinning tops, High Wave candles represent “downright confusion.” That is evident because, in the same period, the market goes from the euphory of an extended high to the fear of a large drop, and then to close very near to its opening value. That means total confusion.

Trends and spinning tops

A large white body is like a green light for bulls in an uptrend. A large red body is also a green light to sell. But finding a spinning top in an uptrend means that the buyers do not have the complete control of the price. Therefore, such tops are a warning sign that the trend might be ending. Spinning tops acquire more importance when the price is overextended or close to resistance levels.

Spinning tops during ranging markets do not have any power to warn a trend change, as these stages are too noisy, and filled with lots of small bodies, anyway. Therefore, spinning tops and high waves during horizontal channels have no trading value.

Hammers, Hanging Man, and Shooting stars

Three special cases of spinning tops are the Hammer, the Hanging Man, and the Shooting Star.

Hammer

Fig 2 – Hammer

The hammer has a small real body and a large lower shadow. It is the equivalent of a reversal bar.  The price went from the open to the bottom, then it recovered and closed near or at the high of the session. The color of the body has less importance, although a close above the open has more upside implications. The signal is confirmed with a followthrough candle next to it.

Criteria:
  • The occurrence is after a lengthy downward movement, and the price is overextended.
  • The real body is at the upper top of the trading range
  • The shadow must be two times the length of the body. The longer, the better.
  • No upper or just a tiny shadow
  • Confirmation with a strong bullish candle, next
  • A large volume on the candle confirms a bottom.

 

Hanging Man

Fig 3 – Hanging Man

The hanging man has a similar shape of the hammer, but it shows up after an uptrend. The Japanese named that way because it is similar to the head and body of a man hanging by the neck.

Criteria:
  • The occurrence is after a significant upward move, and/or the price overextended.
  • The body is at the upper end of the trading range.
  • The lower shadow at least two times the height of the body. The color is not essential, but a bearish finish is preferred. the longer the shadow, the better
  • Tiny or no upper shadow.
  • Confirmation with a large bearish candle
  • High volume on the candlestick is indicative of a potential blowoff.
Shooting star

Fig 4 – Shooting Star

The shooting star is a top reversal candlestick and is the specular image to the hanging man.  In the case of a shooting star, it began great for buyers, but after the euphory of new highs, it came to the deception of the selling pressure with no demand to hold the price.  The close happens at the lower side of the trading range. A bear candle next confirms the trend change.

Criteria:
  • The upper shadow should be two times the height of the body. The larger, the better.
  • The real body is at the bottom of the trading range.
  • Color is less important, although a  red candle implies more bearishness.
  • Almost no lower shadow.
  • A large volume would give more credibility to the signal.
  • A  bear candle next is the confirmation of the change in the trend.

 

Reference: Steve Nison: The Candlestick Course

Profitable Candlestick Trading, Stephen Bigalow

 

 

Categories
Forex Basics Forex Daily Topic

A Breakout Brings More Momentum than any Other Trading Factor

A Breakout Brings More Momentum than any Other Trading Factor

A Breakout Brings More Momentum than any Other Trading Factor

A Breakout Brings More Momentum than any Other Trading Factor

A bearish engulfing candle at a Double Top or consolidation resistance is an excellent signal to go short. However, if a bearish engulfing candle closes right within the support level, it sometimes may create an upside momentum on the minor charts. In today’s article, we are going to demonstrate an example of that.

The price heads towards the North with strong bullish momentum. Ideally, traders are to look for opportunities to go long here upon consolidation, followed by upside breakout. The last candle comes out as a bearish candle. It may consolidate and make an upside breakout as things look. Let us go to the next chart to find out what happens next.

The pair produces a bearish engulfing candle. Several rejections and a bearish engulfing candle suggest that traders may want to go short on the pair. If they’re going to go short from here, they are to flip over to the H1 chart since it is an H4 chart. For a reason, I am not showing the H1 chart since the H4 chart itself tells the story that I want to share. Let us look at the H4 chart with another equation.

The candle closes right at a level where the price has bounced earlier. This is an explicit support level, which may play an essential part in the minor charts. Soon we find out how the pair reacts from here.

Look at the last candle. The candle comes out as a bearish engulfing candle. However, look at the upper shadow. It goes up to the consolidation resistance. With some brokers, because of the high spread factor, some traders’ Stop Loss may be swept away. The last candle, after having a strong rejection at around the resistance level, closes below the support. The sellers are to flip over to the H1 chart, wait for consolidation and bearish breakout to go short on the pair.

Again, I am presenting the H4 chart to show the next price movement.

The price does not look back this time. It heads towards the South with strong bearish momentum. The H1 chart may have offered some entries, as well. What lesson do we get from these examples?

  1. In an H4-H1 combination, after an H4 reversal candle, traders are to flip over to the H1 chart to take an entry.
  2. The last swing high or swing low on the H4 chart is to be counted.
  3. If the reversal candle closes right within the last swing high or swing low, it may push the price towards another direction, produce spike and sweep away our Stop Losses.
Categories
Candlestick patterns Forex Daily Topic

Candlestick Trading Patterns I – The Story

The Financial markets are an exciting place for many people, attracted by dreams of infinite wealth. However, these markets are one of the most complicated environments on earth. The fact that millions of people exchange assets in financial markets makes them very difficult to predict, as each of the participants has its own vision, interests, and objectives.

The Financial markets are an exciting place for many people, attracted by dreams of infinite wealth. However, these markets are one of the most complicated environments on earth. The fact that millions of people exchange assets in financial markets makes them very difficult to predict, as each of the participants has its own vision, interests, and objectives.

The Financial markets are an exciting place for many people, attracted by dreams of infinite wealth. However, these markets are one of the most complicated environments on earth. The fact that millions of people exchange assets in financial markets makes them very difficult to predict, as each of the participants has its own vision, interests, and objectives.
That is why traders are always investigating the best tools to allow them to detect market sentiment in every situation.

Fundamental versus Technical

In the past, fundamental analysis was the only tool that allowed investors to detect whether a value was overvalued or undervalued. That gave them the keys to future trends, and to be able to overtake other investors with less information.
Then, at some point, the theory arises that the analysis of price history shows everything necessary for an informed investment. According to this theory, launched by Charles Dow, the price is already included in the fundamental analysis, since the chart is the trace left by investors about the consensus value of the good.

That said, there is a consensus that fundamental analysis is still necessary to detect the macro trend and to position the buying and selling actions in favor of the primary trend, while technical analysis is essential to generate the timing of trading activities.

Fig 1- Old NY Stock Exchange price table and Average chart. Source (https://pix-media.priceonomics-media.com/blog/1230/image04.png)

Chartism was encouraged in the early 1970s and 1980s by the emergence of personal computers, which allowed graphs to be automatically generated, instead of manually drawn, and also analyzed in time frames shorter than the daily.

The OHLC Chart

The technical analysis popularized the use of OHLC graphs that not only indicated the closing value of each interval but also gave the opening, maximum, and minimum data. This allowed chartists to observe the range of movements of the period and obtain an assessment of the volatility.

Fig 2- OHLC Chart in its classical B&W style.

The use of OHLC charts was a big advancement in the analysis of the price action. Soon analysts began to define profitable patterns such as reversal bar, key reversal bar, Doble and triple tops and bottoms, head and shoulders pattern round bottoms, Cup and handle, and many more.

Candlestick Charts

A centuries-old hidden way to analyze the markets came from Japan helped by Steve Nison’s studies of candlestick charting methods. According to him, centuries back, Japanese merchants were at the bottom of Japan’s social scale, well below soldiers, artisans, and farmers. But a prominent merchant began rising in status by the XVIIth century. His name was Munehisa Homma. At that time rice was a medium of exchange. Feudal Lords would store it in Osaka’s warehouses to, then, exchange the receipts when it was convenient for them, thus, becoming a de-facto futures market. Homa’s trading techniques, which included analysis through a primitive form of candlestick charts to gauge the psychology of the marker would earn him an immense fortune.

Fig 3- Candlestick Chart in its modern colorful style.

The major advantage of a candlestick chart over an OHLC chart is the ability to assess at a glance the overall trend and, also many hints about the current sentiment or psychological mood of the trader collective. Color is key to assess the current trend. Also, large bodies signify genuine momentum, short bodies and large wicks mean indecision and fight between buyers and sellers to control the price action.

Candlestick Patterns

Many of the western analysis methods can be applied also to candlestick charts, but these Japanese charts have brought a brand new batch of new patterns to assess market turns and continuations.  We will try to cover most of them, including obviously all major trading candlestick patterns such as Morning and evening stars, haramis, engulfing, three soldiers, and so on.

To refresh your basic knowledge of candlesticks, we recommend the following articles:

https://www.forex.academy/all-you-need-to-be-introduced-to-trading-charts-part-1-line-bar-and-candlestick-charts/

https://www.forex.academy/facts-about-candlesticks-you-never-knew/

https://www.forex.academy/dissection-of-candlestick/

https://www.forex.academy/candlestick-charts-and-its-advantages-in-financial-trading/

 

 

Categories
Forex Course

31. The Concept Of Margin Call & Margin Call Level

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

By now, you would have known that risk management is the most crucial factor of consideration while trading in a margin account. The trader is not solely responsible for their risk, but brokers, too, have some features that directly or indirectly try reducing the risk of the traders. In the previous lesson, we understood what margin level was. And in this lesson, we shall be putting more meaning to it by introducing another term which is correlated with margin level. The margin term, which will be discussed in this lesson is ‘Margin Call Level.’ So, without any further talks, let’s get our feet wet with this topic.

Margin Call Level

Margin Call Level, as the name suggests, is a specific level in Margin Level when the broker warns the trader that their positions are at risk. It is a threshold level when the broker alerts the trader that some of their trades can be forced to close.

As mentioned, the Margin Call Level is closely related to Margin Level. Hence, Margin Call Level is expressed in terms of percentage.

Example

Let’s say the Margin Call Level set by the broker is 100%. So, if an account’s Margin Level falls below 100%, then it is said that the account has hit the Margin Call Level.

Margin Call

Margin Call and Margin Call Level is pretty much the same thing. Margin Call is simply a different version of the Margin Call Level. If Margin Call Level is a specific ‘level’ set by the broker, Margin Call is a ‘call’ or ‘notification’ given by the broker. So, when an account’s Margin Level falls below the Margin Call Level, the account holder will receive a call or notification from the broker notifying the same.

This above explanation was the simple exterior working of Margin Call. If we were to see the internal working of it, one would receive a Margin Call when the Equity value becomes less than the Used Margin. That is when the floating loss becomes larger than the Used Margin.

Now, let’s get this concept cemented by considering an example.

Assume that a trader has deposited $1,000 in his account. Also, he went short on EURUSD for 10,000. The required margin for this trade was $300. Considering this to be the only running trade, the Used Margin will be $300 (same as the Required Margin).

Let’s say the trade is performing well, and the current unrealized P/L is $100. The Equity at this point of time will be,

Equity = Account Balance + Floating P/L = $1,000 + $100 = $1,100

Now, since the trade is running in profit, the Margin Level will obviously be above the Margin Call Level.

Later, let’s say the trade is going into the negative to -$700. The Equity now will turn out to be $300 ($1,000 – $700).

With these values, let’s find out the Margin Level.

Margin Level = (Equity / Used Margin) x 100% = ($300 / $300) x 100% = 100%

Assuming that the Margin Call Level set by the broker is 100%, the trader will now receive a Margin Call as the current Margin Level is at 100%.

Now, wondering what will happen if the Margin Level falls significantly below the Margin Call Level? The answer to this shall be discussed in the next lesson. Make sure to take the quiz below before you go.

[wp_quiz id=”51027″]
Categories
Forex Elliott Wave

Corrective Waves and the Flag Pattern

Is it possible to simplify the wave analysis and compare it with classic chartist patterns? Identifying Elliott Wave patterns can seem confusing, especially if you are looking to differentiate between a flat or a zigzag pattern. In this educational article, we will look at some of Elliott’s patterns and compare them to traditional chartist figures.

Is it possible to simplify the wave analysis and compare it with classic chartist patterns? Identifying Elliott Wave patterns can seem confusing, especially if you are looking to differentiate between a flat or a zigzag pattern. In this educational article, we will look at some of Elliott’s patterns and compare them to traditional chartist figures.

Is it possible to simplify the wave analysis and compare it with classic chartist patterns? Identifying Elliott Wave patterns can seem confusing, especially if you are looking to differentiate between a flat or a zigzag pattern. In this educational article, we will look at some of Elliott’s patterns and compare them to traditional chartist figures.

The Normal Zigzag, Flat and the Flag Pattern

In the Elliott wave theory, the zigzag and the flat pattern are formations built by three internal waves. At the same time, depending on the strength of the corrective move, these could be more or less profound. The following figure shows the comparison between a normal corrective wave, which can be a zigzag or flat, and the flag pattern.

If we remember the wave theory, a zigzag pattern follows a 5-3-5 sequence, and the flat structure, a 3-3-5 internal subdivision. However, both formations can be simplified as a three-legs formation. Now, as we can see in the previous figure, the normal Zigzag and Flat structures can be simplified by a flag pattern.

The flag pattern is a chartist figure that represents a pause of the market trend and usually resolves as a continuation of the previous movement. The same situation occurs with the zigzag and flat pattern.

The flag pattern is spotted by a descending (or ascending) move, which connects in a tight range, its highs, and lows within a parallel channel.

The following chart exposes a series of flag formations detected on the GBPJPY cross in its 12-hour range.

On the figure, we observe that Flag patterns are commonly found in financial markets. According to Thomas Bulkowski’s publication, the flag pattern has a break-even or failure rate below 4%, which converts it as a “pretty nice” pattern to trade.

Flag Pattern Trade Setup

The flag trade setup is similar to the zigzag of flat configuration.

  • Entry: The trade is triggered once the price surpasses the end of wave “B,” or the previous swing high or low.
  • Protective Stop: The trade will be invalid if the price drops below the low of the flag.
  • Target: We will determine the profit target level using the Fibonacci expansion tool. The first target will be at the 100% level, as a second target at 127.2%, and the third profit target level will place at 161.8%

Putting All-together

The following chart illustrates the GBPCHF in its 8-hour range. In early January 2019, the cross developed a rally from 1.2248, which drove to the price until 1.2573. Once reached this high, the price action formed a corrective move in three waves. The bullish position was activated once price action surpassed the previous swing at 1.2524.

After the breakout, the price rallied over the three profit targets proposed. Note how the price runs when the flag pattern is tight and high, and the difference when the flag is broad in terms of price and time.

Conclusion

From the analysis realized, we conclude that a corrective structure as a normal zigzag or flat formation can be simplified as a flag pattern. This simplification could aid the traders in reducing the time analysis elapsed to the decision process before to place an order.

The confidence level of this pattern as a continuation figure could contribute to reducing the risk in the trading process.

Categories
Forex Psychology

What Wastage of Time!

The H4-H1 combination is one of the best combinations to trade for intraday traders. The H4 chart is the most consistent intraday chart in the Forex market. The H1 chart integration with the H4 chart offers many reliable entries. However, it is often seen that the H4 chart doest its part, but the signal never comes on the H1 chart. In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of an H4-H1 chart combination, which is about to give us entry, but it ends up not producing a trading signal. Let us find out how the story goes.

The H4-H1 combination is one of the best combinations to trade for intraday traders. The H4 chart is the most consistent intraday chart in the Forex market. The H1 chart integration with the H4 chart offers many reliable entries. However, it is often seen that the H4 chart doest its part, but the signal never comes on the H1 chart. In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of an H4-H1 chart combination, which is about to give us entry, but it ends up not producing a trading signal. Let us find out how the story goes.

The H4-H1 combination is one of the best combinations to trade for intraday traders. The H4 chart is the most consistent intraday chart in the Forex market. The H1 chart integration with the H4 chart offers many reliable entries. However, it is often seen that the H4 chart doest its part, but the signal never comes on the H1 chart. In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of an H4-H1 chart combination, which is about to give us entry, but it ends up not producing a trading signal. Let us find out how the story goes.

The price after being bullish on the H4 chart, it has several rejections at a level. The last bearish candle gets rejected at a Double Top resistance. The sellers are to flip over the H1 chart and wait for the H1 consolidation and H1 bearish breakout to go short. However, it is an Inside Bar. It may not attract the sellers that much. Let us proceed to the next chart.

This is the H4 chart, as well. The price does not head towards the South on the H1 chart. It rather produces an H4 bullish candle followed by an H4 bearish engulfing candle. This time it may attract more sellers to be keen on selling opportunities. They are to flip over to the H1 chart again. Let us have a look at how the H1 chart looks.

This is the H1 chart. The last candle comes out as a bearish engulfing candle. The sellers are to stick with the chart to wait for consolidation and to get a breakout to go short. The waiting game starts.

The price keeps going towards the South without having any consolidation. Since the sellers do not find new resistance, thus there is no entry for them yet. Let us not give up but wait for consolidation.

The consolidation starts, but it does not make any H1 breakout to make the new lowest low. It rather finds a level of support where it has several bounces. It is a ‘Double Bottom’ support. The way things look now, it may head towards the North if the price breaches the neckline. All anticipations and hopes have gone in vain. Some traders may think, “what wastage of time.”

If you think it is a wastage of time, you are far away from being a professional trader. 70% of your trade setup like this may end up not offering an entry. Never think it is a waste of time. Take it easy. Each potential setup does not offer an entry. Concentrate and find out more setups in other pairs. It must be round the corner.

Categories
Forex Course

30. What Is Margin Level and How Is It Calculated?

Introduction
The margin concepts such as Used margin and Equity have proved to be essential to understand other margin terms. In this lesson, the concept of Margin level too revolves

Introduction
The margin concepts such as Used margin and Equity have proved to be essential to understand other margin terms. In this lesson, the concept of Margin level too revolves

Introduction

The margin concepts such as Used margin and Equity have proved to be essential to understand other margin terms. In this lesson, the concept of Margin level too revolves around the terms Used margin and Equity. Without further discussion, let’s get right into the understanding of the Margin level.

Margin Level

Margi level is the percentage ratio of Equity and Used margin. It is a term whose value is expressed in percentage. Also, the meaning of it is closely related to the Free margin.

The margin level determines if the trader can take new positions or not. It is a comparative factor as it is compared with a level set by the brokers. For easy comprehension, note that higher the margin level, higher is the possibility for the trader to take new positions and vice versa. Knowing the margin level is vital because this value has a relation with a Margin call and Stop out level as well.

Calculating Margin Level

The margin level is the ratio of Equity and Used margin expressed in terms of percentage.

Margin level = (Equity / Used Margin) x 100%

Understanding Margin Level

Similar to the Free margin, the Margin level will have no value when there are no positions open. This is simply because there is no margin used. However, when positions are open, the margin level has a non-zero value, which is dependent on the used margin and equity.

As mentioned earlier, the margin level determines if a trader is eligible to take new positions. And this is determined by the level set by the brokers. If the margin level falls below the level set by the brokers, the trader becomes ineligible to take a new position. Usually, the limit set by the brokers is 100%.

Example

Let’s say a trader has deposited $1,000 to their account and has gone long 10,000 units on USD/CAD. Below are the parameters that are to be calculated to determine the margin level:

  • Required margin
  • Used margin
  • Equity
Required Margin

If the margin requirement for this trade is 2%, the required margin will be,

Required margin = Notional value x Margin requirement = $10,000 x 2% = $200

Used Margin

Since there is only one position running, the value of the used margin will be equal to the value of the required margin, i.e., $200

Equity

Assuming the trade is running in a profit of $50, the equity is calculated as follows:

Equity = Account balance + Floating P/L = $1,000 + $50 = $1,050

Now that all the parameters are known, let’s go ahead and calculate the Margin level.

Margin Level

Margin level = (Equity / Used Margin) x 100% = ($1,050 / $200) x 100% = 525%

Now, since the value of the margin level is above 100%, the trader is still eligible to take new positions. This brings us to the end of this lesson on the Margin level. Don’t forget to take the below quiz.

[wp_quiz id=”50755″]
Categories
Forex Chart Basics

An Inverted Hammer at a Double Bottom

The Double Bottom is a pattern, where the buyers eagerly wait to get a bullish reversal candle at. Typically, a Bullish Engulfing Candle, a Bullish Pin Bar,  a Bullish Truck

The Double Bottom is a pattern, where the buyers eagerly wait to get a bullish reversal candle at. Typically, a Bullish Engulfing Candle, a Bullish Pin Bar,  a Bullish Truck

The Double Bottom is a pattern, where the buyers eagerly wait to get a bullish reversal candle at. Typically, a Bullish Engulfing Candle, a Bullish Pin Bar,  a Bullish Truck Rail are considered the strongest bullish reversal candle pattern. Usually, a Bullish Inside Bar and an Inverted Hammer are the weakest reversal pattern. In today’s lesson, we demonstrate an example of how a Daily Inverted Hammer candle offers a long entry.

This is the daily chart. It shows that the price has been roaming around within two horizontal levels. It is at the support and produces an Inverted Hammer. An Inverted Hammer is a bullish reversal candle but not a very strong one. Look at the upper shadow. It suggests that the price has a strong rejection at a level of resistance.

To some extent, it signifies intraday buyers’ less confidence. However, it is the daily chart, and the bullish reversal candle forms right at a double bottom’s support. Thus, let us flip over to the H4 chart to find out whether it offers us an entry.

The H4 chart shows that the price is on consolidation. The last candle looks ominous for the buyers. Nevertheless, traders on this chart combination are to look for long opportunities as long as the support holds the price. Let us go to the next chart to find out what happens.

The price finds its support and produces two consecutive bullish candles. One of them breaches the resistance and closes well above the resistance. A long entry may be triggered here by setting the Stop Loss below the consolidation support.

The price heads towards the North with good bullish momentum after triggering the breakout. The last candle on this chart comes out as a bearish candle with some gap. The buyers may consider closing the entry and come out with the total profit. On the other hand, some traders may want to take partial profit and ride on the wave up to the resistance. Have a look at the chart below.

The price may go up to the marked resistance level since this is the last swing high. If we consider the risk-reward, it is an amazing trade. The reward is about five times the risk. Do you remember how it started, though? It began with a Daily Inverted Hammer Candle (relatively weaker bullish reversal) at a Double Bottom’s support. Yes, this is what support of Double Bottom can do.

Categories
Forex Market Forex Risk Management

These Are Some Of The Best Position Sizing Techniques You Should Know!

Introduction
In our previous article, we addressed the concept of position sizing, drawdown, and techniques. Now we extend this discussion and look at other crucial aspects of position sizing, which

Introduction
In our previous article, we addressed the concept of position sizing, drawdown, and techniques. Now we extend this discussion and look at other crucial aspects of position sizing, which

Introduction

In our previous article, we addressed the concept of position sizing, drawdown, and techniques. Now we extend this discussion and look at other crucial aspects of position sizing, which are very important. In this article, let’s determine how one can position themselves in the forex market based on three different models. Each of these has its own merits that impose some sort of position sizing discipline in traders.

The three core position sizing techniques in terms of risk are:

  • Fixed lot per amount
  • Percentage margin
  • Degree of volatility

These models can be applied to all the asset classes and are time frame independent.

We suggest you stick to one model to estimate the position size or at most two position sizing techniques. Following every given method will increase complexity, and that is not good for a trader.

Fixed Lot Per Amount

This is a fairly simple model. It requires a trader to simply state how many lots he is willing to trade for a given amount of capital. For example, let us assume a trader is having $2000 in his trading account, and he trades only the major currency pairs like  EUR/USD, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, USD/JPY, etc.

The trader simply needs to make a thumb rule that he/she will not trade more than one standard lot of futures (of major currency pairs) per $2000 at any given point.

The lot size can also be determined based on their risk appetite and money management principles. This technique of ‘fixed risk’ is based more on the discipline than strategy.

Percentage Margin

This position sizing technique is more structured than the ‘Fixed lot per amount’ technique, especially for intraday traders. It requires a trader to position themself based on the margin. Here, a trader essentially fixes an ‘X’ percentage of their capital as margin amount to any particular trade. Let’s see how this works with the help of an example.

Assume a trader named Tim has a trading capital of $5000; with this, he decides not to expose more than 20% as margin amount on a particular trade. This translates to a capital of $1000 per trade.

Now, if Tim gets an opportunity in another currency pair, he would be forced to let go of this margin as it would double to 40% (20% + 20%). This new opportunity will be out of his trading universe until and unless he increases his trading capital. Hence, one should not randomly increase the margin to accommodate opportunities.

The percentage margin ensures a trader pays roughly the same margin to all positions irrespective of the forex pair and volatility. Otherwise, they would end up in risky bets and therefore altering the entire risk profile of their account.

Degree Of Volatility

The degree of volatility accounts for the volatility of the underlying asset. To measure volatility, we make use of the ATR indicator, as suggested by Van Tharp. This position sizing technique defines the maximum amount of volatility exposure one can assume for the given trading capital.

Below we have plotted the ATR indicator on to the USD/JPY forex chart.

The 14-day ATR has a peak and then a decline, which shows a decrease in volatility. As you know that high volatility conditions are the best times to trade (less slippage, high liquidity, etc.), you can risk up to 5% of your trading capital on the trade while one should not risk more than 1% when the ATR is at the lowest point. Do not forget the risks involved while trading highly volatile markets. Only use this position sizing technique when you completely trust your trading strategy.

Conclusion

A trader should not risk too much on any trade, especially if their trading capital is small. Remember, your odds of making a profit are high when you manage your position size and risk the right amount on each of the trade you take.

Beginners should trade thin to get experience with open positions, so they can assess the stress of a loss and gradually increase the position size as he is comfortable with the strategy results and performance. As a matter of fact, this is also the right way to proceed when trading live a new strategy, be it a beginner or an experienced trader.

Cheers!

Categories
Forex Course

29. Other Important Margin Trading Terminologies – Free Margin

Introduction
In the previous lesson, the concept of used margin and equity was discussed. Apart from having their importance, these terms prove to be significant to understand other terms as

Introduction
In the previous lesson, the concept of used margin and equity was discussed. Apart from having their importance, these terms prove to be significant to understand other terms as

Introduction

In the previous lesson, the concept of used margin and equity was discussed. Apart from having their importance, these terms prove to be significant to understand other terms as well. And in this lesson, we will be dealing with a term that has a close relation with used margin and equity.

Just to brush things up, the used margin is basically the total amount of money that is used up by the broker for all the positions. In other words, it is simply the sum of the required margin for all the trades. And equity, on the other hand, is the sum of the account balance and the unrealized P/L. Now that these definitions are clear let’s understand what free margin is.

Free Margin

Free margin is the difference between the Equity and the Used margin. That is, Free margin is the amount that is available for the trader to take new positions. It is basically the complemented version of the Used Margin. Used margin is the margin that is locked by the broker for taking positions, while free margin is the margin that can be utilized to open new positions. Free margin is also referred to as available margin, usable margin, and usable maintenance margin.

Calculation of Free Margin

As already mentioned, the Free margin is calculated by finding the difference between Equity and Used margin.

Free Margin = Equity – Used Margin

In the previous lesson, it was discussed that equity changes continuously when any positions are open. Now, since Equity is one of the factors that determine the Free margin, the free margin also keeps constantly changing when positions are running.

So, when a trade is performing well, the floating P/L increases, which in turn increases the Equity as well as the Free margin. And conversely, the Free margin decreases when the floating P/L decreases.

Now that the formula is clear let’s understand it better with some examples.

Let’s say a trader has deposited $1,000 to their account and currently has no positions open yet. So, the account balance at this point would be $1,000. The Equity will be the same as the account balance as the floating P/L is $0. Since no trades are open, there is no margin used. From this, the free margin is calculated as:

Free Margin = Equity + Used Margin = $1,000 + $0 = $1,000

Thus, it can be concluded that Balance, Equity, and Free margin is the same when no positions are open.

Now, let’s say the trader went short 10,000 units on EUR/USD. Consider the required margin to be $150. Also, assume that the trade is running in a profit of $30.

Equity= Account balance + Floating P/L = $1,000 + $30 = $1,030

The used margin will be equal to $150 (required margin) as there is only one position open.

Free margin = Equity – Used margin = $1,030 – $150 = $880

We hope you understood what Free margin refers to in a margin account. In the coming lessons, we will be discussing the Margin level, Margin call level, and Stop out level. Check your learnings by taking up the below quiz.

[wp_quiz id=”50694″]
Categories
Forex Elliott Wave

How to Use ETFs to Create Spreads

Exchange-Traded Funds, or better known as ETFs, are investment instruments that are traded in a centralized market. In this educational article, we will see how we can use them to

Exchange-Traded Funds, or better known as ETFs, are investment instruments that are traded in a centralized market. In this educational article, we will see how we can use them to

Exchange-Traded Funds, or better known as ETFs, are investment instruments that are traded in a centralized market. In this educational article, we will see how we can use them to create negotiating opportunities.

Exploring Markets and Diversification

In financial markets, there are virtually unlimited possibilities for investment. Decisions such as what to buy? What to sell? As well as the geographical region, level of risk, liquidity of the market or assets, expected profitability, among other aspects, are factors that an investor can face when planning his future investment.

Use of Intermarket Spreads

In simple words, a spread is a strategy on which the investor buys one market and sells another market simultaneously. For example, in the currency market, an investor could buy a contract of €100,000 and simultaneously sell a 100,000 euro on pounds sterling. In other words, this trade is equivalent to go long in the EUR/GBP spread.

Creating a Spread with ETFs

We can create different spreads according to the market in which we are interested in investing. To this end, the decision criteria will be those ETFs with higher liquidity. The following tables represent ETFs that are associated with commodities, particularly Gold and Silver.

Table 1 – ETFs Based on Gold

Table 2 – ETFs Based on Silver

From tables 1 and 2, we see that ETFs GLD and SLV record the largest size in each group. Consequently, they will be used for the construction of the GLD/SLV spread.

The GLD/SLV spread in its daily chart shows both precious metals developing a corrective structure as a B wave. Therefore, the Gold/Silver spread could see a new low. In other words, we expect a decline in GLD and an upside in SLV.

The following example shows the spread between SPY and QQQ in its daily chart. The ETF SPY is characterized by replicating the S&P 500 index, while QQQ replicates the NASDAQ 100 index.

In the spread graph SPY/QQQ, we detect that the price is developing an Ending Diagonal structure in a bearish cycle. Also, although QQQ continues to push downwards in front of the SPY, it should be noted that this pattern is an exhaustion formation. Thus, it is likely that these markets reverse soon. In this case, the positioning strategy would be a long position in SPY and another short position in QQQ.

Conclusion

After the analysis made here, you may see that everything traded, including pairs, can be considered as spread bets between an asset the underlying payment method. It is just that, considering the relative stability of fiat money it makes more sense to use the term spread when exchanging two volatile assets, as one of the main objectives of spread bets is to tame the overall market volatility since the investor is selling and buying volatility at the same time.

According to what here is exposed, the creation of spreads can help explore the strength/ weakness situation between markets. Likewise, the exercise could help to make decisions on which assets to choose. It should be emphasized that before entering a market, the  spread’s price action must confirm the movement that is predicted.

Finally, this type of analysis can be extended to the futures market between futures contracts with different or similar expirations. This kind of analysis can also be applied in the stocks market, bonds, etc.

Categories
Forex Psychology

Having the Mindset to Deal with a Frustrating Situation

Patience is one of the most essential components of Forex traders. Traders are to keep patience in every single second. Before triggering an entry, a trader is to find out

Patience is one of the most essential components of Forex traders. Traders are to keep patience in every single second. Before triggering an entry, a trader is to find out

Patience is one of the most essential components of Forex traders. Traders are to keep patience in every single second. Before triggering an entry, a trader is to find out a trend, key levels, momentum, news events, etc. After all this hard work, he may not be able to take the entry. It is frustrating, but for Forex traders, it is a usual thing. A trader must accept it simply. In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of that.

The price heads towards the South; it consolidates and heads towards the North. The price breaches a level of resistance, which the buyers are to keep an eye at for a bullish reversal. Let us proceed to find out how the next chart looks.

The buyers were waiting for the red-marked level to hold the price and produce a bullish reversal. If the level had held the price and pushed the price towards the North breaching the highest high, the buyers would have taken a long entry. They must have waited eagerly, but all went in vain.

The price headed towards the South further and found its support. After finding the support, it heads towards the North again. On its way, it makes a breakout at the highest high of the last bearish wave. The buyers are to keep an eye on this pair again to find a long entry. To take the long entry, the price is to come back at the breakout level, to produce a bullish reversal candle, and to breach the highest high of the last wave.

This time it looks good. A candle closes within the level of support. The buyers are to keep an eye to get a bullish reversal candle first. This means they have to be patient again. Let us proceed to find out what happens next.

The level produced a bullish reversal candle, but it did not breach the highest high. It instead came down and breached the support level. In a word, all efforts have gone in vain. What wastage of time!

                   The Bottom Line

If you want to take trading seriously as a business or a consistent source of income, you must not think that it is a wastage of your time. It is an investment. Traders must be patient and not be frustrated when opportunities are lost or do not come as per expectation. They must deal with it professionally.

The bad thing is it does not come with practice or experience. The good thing is it is all about mindset. Even a beginner may have a mindset to deal with a situation like this, whereas it might frustrate a trader with five years of experience. We must remember that if it frustrates too much, it hurts trading performance.

 

Categories
Forex Market

Finding The Optimal Risk % In Forex Trading

Introduction
Calculating risk is one of the most important parts of Money Mangement. Many novice traders or traders with limited experience won’t be aware of the amount of risk they

Introduction
Calculating risk is one of the most important parts of Money Mangement. Many novice traders or traders with limited experience won’t be aware of the amount of risk they

Introduction

Calculating risk is one of the most important parts of Money Mangement. Many novice traders or traders with limited experience won’t be aware of the amount of risk they can tolerate. In this article, we shall focus on determining the appropriate risk % that fits your trading style. The goal of risk management is to gain control over three things:

  • Emotions
  • Leverage
  • Sustenance

Furthermore, by limiting the loss per trade, a trader can ensure that his/her trading capital is not wiped out in one single trade. Having this discipline systematically reduces the loss per trade and provides an opportunity for the trader to re-look at the situation.

Calculating the risk

One can determine the risk based on the following factors:

Win rate

Win rate refers to how often a trader takes profitable trades relative to the trades that result in a loss. Win rate is determined by using the risk-to-reward ratio (RRR) and is calculated by the following formula.

Win rate = 1/(1+RRR)

The above-given formula is also referred to as the Minimum win rate. If any trader is trading with an RRR of 1, then his/her minimum win rate will be 50%. So out of 100 trades, we require a minimum of 50 trades to end as winners to compensate for the losing trades.

This will help a trader in deciding their maximum risk based on the win rate. This formula can also determine if a trade can be taken or not. For example, if someone has a win rate of 25%, he/she will not be able to take trades that have a risk-to-reward ratio of less than 3.

Nature of the market

Depending on the market situation, the risk can vary substantially. In a trending market, like the one in the below chart, risk should be reduced as much as possible by using a stop-loss order. We are recommending this idea as you would most probably be trend trading, and there is no point in risking more than the usual (can be lesser).

Trending Market

In a market that is trapped in a range (below image), the risk is always higher. This means anyone who trades the consolidation market is essentially increasing their risk. This would mean increasing the stop-loss, thereby reducing the risk-to-reward ratio (RRR) of the trade.

Ranging Market

Maintaining a risk of 1% constantly, regardless of the market conditions, will help the traders to sustain the loses and stay in the game even after a series of losing trades. This is a conservative method that reaps fewer rewards, but the risk is certain.

Conclusion

The aim is to achieve some level of consistency in trading by allowing yourself and your trading strategy to fight the evil forces of the market. We would say in all circumstances, a max risk of 1% appears to be the winner if you are a conservative trader. When the risk increases, it is said to impact not only the capital of the trading account but also the psychology of a trader. Hence it is better to keep risk at a bare minimum in times of uncertainty.

Categories
Forex Market

Understanding Drawdown & Its Relation With Position Size

Introduction
Do you know that there is a safe way to choose the maximum lot size when you trade? That too while keeping your account safe from blowing when a

Introduction
Do you know that there is a safe way to choose the maximum lot size when you trade? That too while keeping your account safe from blowing when a

Introduction

Do you know that there is a safe way to choose the maximum lot size when you trade? That too while keeping your account safe from blowing when a losing streak of trades occur? To constantly stay in the game and be able to recover from losses requires patience, clarity, and, more importantly – optimal Position sizing. The position size in simple words is how much a trader invests in each trade. There are different models deployed to reach the optimal position sizing depending on the objective of the trade. Before that, let’s first understand what drawdown is and how it is related to position sizing.

What is the maximum drawdown?

The maximum drawdown is the biggest drop in the accumulated profit chart and, consequently, that of the trading capital. Imagine a situation where a trader had 200 pips in profit after a number of trades, and on the following days’ profit dropped to 136 pips before he can make new accumulated high.

So, the drawdown here was 200-136 = 64 pips

When this drawdown increases, it reaches a level (negative drawdown), after which it becomes impossible to trade (due to loss of trading capital). Maximum drawdown is the loss that the trader can take in order to survive in the market and be able to continue trading.

How is drawdown related to position sizing?

Taking the above example, let us assume that the trading capital was $500 and the trader trades with a lot size of 0.01. The drawdown he experienced was 64 pips, which is $6.4 (1 Pip = $0.1). So the amount of money he/she risking in this trade is 6.4/500 x 100 = 1.28% of the account size.

Now let us see how this drawdown increases with a change in position size.

How much drawdown can I handle so that it doesn’t affect the mental state and my trading style?

As you can see below, the drawdown % increase as the lot size increases and the account gets into an unsustainable state (Especially when the Trading Capital is $500). Hence you need to calculate risk based on your risk tolerance drawdown.

The right way to look at drawdown and position size

Typically, the drawdown occurs after a series of consecutive losses. The very first thing a trader needs to do is to analyze and figure out the number of losing trader he/she can endure. Depending on that, the maximum risk percentage should be defined. So essentially, this percentage is the maximum amount of trading capital a trader affords to lose. If the losses cross this percentage, his/her account get unsustainable.

For instance, I can bear a maximum drawdown of 20%. So I should be willing to design a strategy and chose my trading size in such a way that it is very unlikely for me to reach the 20% drawdown. Let’s denote the number of losing streaks as N. I should make sure that my strategy has a winning percentage of at least 50% or more with high RRRs. Let’s assume the maximum number of losing streaks I can afford is 10 (i.e. N=10).

Dividing the maximum drawdown (20%) with N (10) gives 2%. This means that I cannot risk more than 2% of my trading capital on a trade to sustain in the market. If I have more than one open trading position, I should be distributing the risk among all of the open positions. So here, if I have 2 open positions, I shouldn’t be risking more than 1% in each of the trades. This is one of the best ways to look at drawdown and position size.

Different approaches to position sizing

Defined Percentage Risk

In this position sizing strategy, we risk a fixed percentage of the trading capital (e.g., 1%) for each trade. This is followed by most of the traders across the world and it is pretty simple to use as well. Essentially, the trader is required to put the stop-loss more accurately and not randomly to prevent the stop-loss hunt. This might sound pretty easy but it needs a lot of discipline to overcome the greed and not raise the position size when you see a clear profitable trading signal.

The Kelly Criterion Model

John Kelly described this criterion pretty long ago, which computes the optimal position size for a series of trades.

Kelly Percentage = W – [(1-W) / R)

Where, W – Winning probability and R – Profit/Loss ratio

When a trader keeps a record of all their trades, they can calculate their winning probability and profit/loss ratio. Then, they can use them in the above equation to calculate the optimal position size.

Conclusion

You now know the importance of position size and its relation to drawdown. By using this, leverage can also be used appropriately to avoid blowing-up your account because of the drawdown. By doing this, you can maximize your earnings and reduce drawdown to an acceptable value.

Our suggestion for you is to use a trading strategy for a long time. If a strategy hasn’t been tried many times, the big drawdown might not have appeared yet. The bigger the history of using the strategy, the more confidence you will get to increase the lot size. Cheers!

Categories
Forex Basic Strategies

The H4-H1, an Action-Packed Combination

In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of the H4 and the H1 chart combination for taking entries. Both are intraday charts. A large number of traders

In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of the H4 and the H1 chart combination for taking entries. Both are intraday charts. A large number of traders

In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of the H4 and the H1 chart combination for taking entries. Both are intraday charts. A large number of traders do the job using those two charts. Thus, it is an excellent combination to trade in the Forex market.

Let us get started.

This is an H4 chart. The chart shows that the price heads towards the North. On its way, it made an upside breakout, which may play a vital role in pushing the price towards the North further. Despite having a long lower shadow, the last candle comes out as an Engulfing candle. The price may start its correction this time.

As expected, the price comes down to the flipped support and produces a bullish engulfing candle. The last swing high is far enough to offer a 1:1 risk-reward. However, we do not take an entry right after the candle H4 closes. We rather switch over to the H1 chart.

This is how the H1 chart looks. It shows that the price starts having correction by producing a Doji candle. An engulfing bullish candle closing above the Doji candle is the signal to go long here. Let us wait for a Marubozu bullish candle.

This is one good-looking Marubozu bullish candle. However, it closes right at the resistance zone. Risk-reward is 100:0 here. We must wait for an H1 consolidation and breakout towards the upside to take a long entry.

Here they come. The price consolidates and produces an H1 bullish candle, which closes above the resistance. Traders may trigger a long entry right after the candle closes by setting stop loss below the last support. The H1 chart does not show any resistance nearby. Thus, the price may head towards the North with good bullish momentum. It may get us 1:2 risk-reward or even more. Usually, the price reverses once 1:1 risk-reward is achieved. Let us find out what happens here.

The price consolidates much earlier than our expectations. Our reward is not achieved. Thus, we keep holding our position. We are risking a loss here. However, we must keep our patience.

The price makes another upside breakout and heads towards the North. The wave gets us our expected reward and starts having a pullback. If we have not set our take profit, we may manually close it; or we may use a trailing stop loss. We will demonstrate some examples of using trailing stop loss in this combination in upcoming lessons.

The Bottom Line

The H4-H1 combination is an eventful combination. A Trader needs to have skill, expertise, experience, and patience to handle it. Once he learns it well, it may have his hands full in making money by trading.