Tag: Fundamental Analysis

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Forex Education Forex Fundamental Analysis Forex Technical Analysis

Fundamental Analysis Vs. Technical Analysis

If you are trying with any kind of financial market for a significant period of time, you will start testing and forming some kind of system. Then, inevitably, you will begin to focus on technical or fundamental analysis, or maybe a little of both. The perfect understanding of the difference between the two types of […]

If you are trying with any kind of financial market for a significant period of time, you will start testing and forming some kind of system. Then, inevitably, you will begin to focus on technical or fundamental analysis, or maybe a little of both. The perfect understanding of the difference between the two types of […]

If you are trying with any kind of financial market for a significant period of time, you will start testing and forming some kind of system. Then, inevitably, you will begin to focus on technical or fundamental analysis, or maybe a little of both. The perfect understanding of the difference between the two types of analysis is the most important issue you should focus on when trying to make a decision about what kind of trader you want to be.

First, a bit of a disclaimer…

No matter what type of analysis you decide to use, it can be cost-effective. However, none of these types of analysis is 100% guaranteed. The fact that you become a good analyst from a technical or fundamental point of view does not mean you will inevitably earn money. As traders, what we’re looking for is the most likely scenario, not working with certainty. The long-term look is what you should focus on, which really means that you make transactions focused on what is most likely to happen, knowing that will not always work.

Technical Analysis

Most retail traders focus on technical analysis as it can be defined with some ease. What I mean by this is that it looks for things like support, endurance, trending lines, moving average crosses, and the like. For example, a trader who is using technical analysis to trade in the markets will observe the full share price.

With technical analysis, you can get a configuration like the following:

The EUR/USD pair has been removed from the upward movement. By using your Fibonacci recoil tool, you acknowledge that we have withdrawn 50% of the maxima, which is an area in which most traders related to Fibonacci would be interested in going long. Beyond that, we have the exponential moving average of 200 days just below the candle on the daily graph, which of course shows support. Finally, the candle formed a hammer, which is also bullish.

A trading system based on a technical analysis tells the trader to prolong.

The trader based on technical analysis is paying attention to what the price does, not necessarily to what it should do. Just follow what the market tells you in terms of price, and this makes trading in financial markets a little easier. This is why you don’t have to think about many other variables other than what the price is making and whether or not it comes close to your technical configuration concept. If you choose any other factors to participate in trade, such as fundamental analysis, something we’ll get to in a moment, things can get a little more complicated.

Fundamental Analysis

The fundamental analysis focuses on economic factors and what a market “should do”. What I want to express with that is that you will take the figures and the economic announcements and try to find out where the price is going. On an equal footing, if interest rates rise in one country over another, then that currency should rebound over the other. For example, interest rates are expected to continue to rise in the United States at the same time as the ECB remains quiet for the foreseeable future. If that is the case, the EUR / USD pair should eventually fall based on interest rate spreads. There is a multitude of announcements that could be looking at, perhaps, GDP figures, employment, and, of course, the prospects for interest rates.

Ultimately, Forex tends to move in the direction of expected interest rate movements. However, there are other problems that may arise, such as geopolitical situations. For example, Brexit has wreaked havoc on the price of sterling for some time. This is because there are many doubts and not necessarily due to the prospect of the interest rate. In a sense, however, even that route will lead to interest rates, at least in the long term. The idea, of course, is that there is a lot of uncertainty about the British economy when they leave the European Union, and we do not know what they will do with EU-related trading.

The EU is, of course, the UK’s largest trading partner, so this could obviously have a significant negative effect on the UK economy. People are essentially fleeing the British pound because of fear, or the fact that they believe that the Bank of the UK will have to keep interest rates extraordinarily low as the economy slows down. In the end, even the most opaque reasons eventually lead to interest rates, although it may not necessarily be immediately apparent.

Fundamental Vs. Technical

The most typical way traders get involved in the market is a combination of both types. For example, by using Brexit as a backdrop, we know that the British pound has fought for some time. A technical trader will understand the basics of that situation and recognize that selling the British pound makes more sense in general.

They understand the fundamentals of the negative for the British pound, although they don’t get too involved with all the nuances of economic advertisements. They just know the feeling is negative. With that information, they then begin to look for patterns of the sale in chandeliers, failures in resistance, or some other type of scenario in which we break down the support as examples.

With the use of both types of analysis, although most traders using a mixture probably use technical analysis of about 80%, the reality is that it gives you a bias in which to trade with the market. After all, fundamental long-term biases determine exactly what determines the trend, while the technical analyst simply looks for signals to get involved.

There is no right way to operate in the currency market, although it must be borne in mind that technical analysis is much simpler than fundamental because, at the end of the day, fundamental analysis suggests what “should happen,” ignoring what appears on the chart. So, I think most people use a little of both to make their trading decisions.

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Forex Forex Fundamental Analysis

How to Profit from Trading the News

News is a fundamental part of the analysis that every Forex trader must make before placing a position. There are several ways to operate based on news and not all are efficient. Many Forex traders like to trade in the news. They review the economic calendar of major scheduled economic data, such as the famous […]

News is a fundamental part of the analysis that every Forex trader must make before placing a position. There are several ways to operate based on news and not all are efficient. Many Forex traders like to trade in the news. They review the economic calendar of major scheduled economic data, such as the famous […]

News is a fundamental part of the analysis that every Forex trader must make before placing a position. There are several ways to operate based on news and not all are efficient.

Many Forex traders like to trade in the news. They review the economic calendar of major scheduled economic data, such as the famous non-agricultural payrolls, and prepare to trade these currencies shortly before or shortly after one of these key economic events for foreign exchange markets. Of course, if something unexpected happens and they’re alert at the time, they might try to jump on it and seize the opportunity. Different trading methods are usually used to deal with the news. Let us take a look at each of them and analyze the advantages and disadvantages of each, before drawing a conclusion.

Predicting the Outcome and Operating Before Publication

This might not be as naive as it sounds, depending on what you’re predicting. For example, if you believe that, after an extensive analysis of the economic data and background of the personalities involved, the Reserve Bank of Australia will almost certainly cut the interest rate tomorrow, While the market acts as if this is a very unlikely outcome, then you could have a good reason to open a short deal on the Australian dollar, i.e., sell it. Otherwise, I would simply be betting as in a game of chance, with the odds against you even below 50%.

The advantage of taking an intelligent view ahead of a key economic report is that you will most likely get a good price for your operation without a high spread or slippage. The biggest disadvantage is that you will most likely experience a period of high volatility in the minutes leading up to the announcement that will either cause your position to touch the stop-loss or force you to have a wider stop to be sure that your position will survive, which in turn limits your potential risk relationship – reward.

Operating Immediately in Publication

This sounds logical: discover what the market expects and, the instant you see that expectations have been largely exceeded or lost, place a position accordingly. This will almost never succeed, for different reasons: the liquidity will be very low, there will be a huge slippage, the spread will be very high and your broker may very well not even have been able to give you a price. Normally, when a retail trader can enter the market following the most important market news, the price is very poor. This may not matter if the event is a real game-changer, like the US non-farm payroll, but it will work only sometimes. This trading method is always very poor.

Opening Of Pending Orders Before Publication

It may seem an excellent idea to wait for some very important economic news like the US non-agricultural payroll. or the Minutes of the FOMC Meeting and just before publication place outstanding orders with your broker to acquire maybe thirty pips ahead and sell maybe 30 pips below. Actually, it is a very bad idea, as liquidity is greatly reduced in the seconds before and after a major press release, so the price and spreads may not go anywhere. You can easily see that your two operations open and close in a second or two, a very unpleasant experience! Even if you do well, it is still very likely that you will suffer a large slippage in an activated position if the result is strong.

Waiting for the Market to Digest the News

This trading method requires some discipline, intellectual work, and market analysis, but it is really the only efficient way to trade forex with the news. You should compare the outcome of the press release with market expectations and decide whether the market’s confidence in that currency has fundamentally changed. When you’ve made that decision, then you must wait a few minutes and see where the price goes.

His reasoning should then be something like this: if the market news has changed the outlook much to be much more optimistic and the price moves strongly upwards, then expect a setback and enter long. If the news is very bullish but fails to change the fundamental picture – a much more common result- and the price is fluctuating very bullish, expect a recoil and then place a reverse operation. This method avoids slippage problems, poor liquidity, spreads, and poor execution of orders.

The Secret of Trading in Forex with the News

Here’s a little secret about how to trade in Forex with the news: most of the time, the news doesn’t change the movement of the market: it just speeds it up. When you link this with the fact that the market tends to move in a price range almost all the time – very especially after a strong movement in one direction – realizes that most opportunities to trade forex with the news are actually in negotiating against the initial movement, rather than waiting for a follow-up.

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Forex Fundamental Analysis

GBP/CAD Global Macro Analysis – Part 3

GBP/CAD Exogenous Analysis

GBP/CAD Exogenous Analysis

GBP/CAD Exogenous Analysis

The UK and Canada Current Account Differential

The current account differential between the UK and Canada can determine if the GBP/CAD pair is bullish or bearish. If the differential is positive, it means that the UK has a higher current account balance than Canada. This would imply that the GBP is in higher demand in the forex market than the CAD; hence, it is a bullish trend for the pair. Conversely, if the current account differential is negative, it means that the UK has a lesser current balance than Canada. It would imply that the GBP has a lower demand than the CAD in the forex market; hence, a bearish trend for the pair.

In Q3 of 2020, the UK had a current account deficit of $20.97 billion while Canada had a $5.83 billion deficit. Thus, the current account differential is -$15.14 billion. We assign a score of -2.

The interest rate differential between the UK and Canada

The interest rate differential is the difference between the Bank of England’s interest rate and that by the Bank of Canada. In the forex market, carry traders use the interest rate differential to decide whether to buy or short a currency pair. When the interest rate differential is positive, traders will earn the differential by going long. If the differential is negative, traders can earn the differential by shorting the currency pair.

Therefore, if the GBP/CAD pair’s interest rate differential is positive, the pair is bound to adopt a bullish trend. Conversely, if negative, the pair is bound to be bearish.

In 2020, the interest rate in the UK dropped from 0.75% to 0.1%. In Canada, the BOC cut interest rates from 1.75% to 0.25%. Therefore, the interest rate differential is -0.15%. The interest rate differential between the UK and Canada has a score of -1.

The differential in GDP growth rate between the UK and Canada

This differential measures the changes in the growth rate between the two economies. It is a preferred method of comparison since economies are of different sizes. Naturally, the economy with a higher GDP growth rate will have its currency appreciate more. Therefore, if the GDP growth rate differential is positive, it means that the GBP/CAD pair is bullish. If negative, then the pair is bearish.

During the first three quarters of 2020, the UK economy has contracted by 5.8%, while the Canadian economy has contracted by 3.3%. This makes the GDP growth rate differential -2.5%. Hence, a score of -1.

Conclusion

Indicator Score Total State Comment
The UK and Canada Current Account Differential -2 10 A differential of – $15.14 The UK has a higher deficit than Canada
The interest rate differential between the UK and Canada -1 10 -0.15% Expected to remain at -0.15% until either economy have recovered
The differential in GDP growth rate between the UK and Canada -1 10 3.30% The Canadian economy contracted at a slower pace than the UK economy
TOTAL SCORE -4

The cumulative score for the exogenous factors is -4. This means that we can expect the GBP/CAD pair to trade in a downtrend in the short term.

However, technical analysis shows the pair adopting a bullish trend with the weekly chart trading above the 200-period MA. More so, the pair is seen bouncing off the lower Bollinger band. Keep an eye on the near-term changes in the exogenous factors.

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Forex Fundamental Analysis

GBP/CAD Global Macro Analysis – Part 1 & 2

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

This analysis will evaluate the endogenous factors that affect the domestic economy in both the UK and Canada. We’ll also cover exogenous factors that influence the price of the GBP/CAD pair.

Ranking Scale

After analysis, we will rank both the exogenous and the endogenous factors on a scale from -10 to +10.

Endogenous factors will be ranked after a correlation analysis with the GDP growth rate. If negative, it means that either the GBP or the CAD have depreciated. If positive, it means that the domestic currency has appreciated.

The exogenous factors are ranked based on their correlation with the GBP/CAD pair’s exchange rate. When negative, it means that the price will drop. The price will be expected to increase if the exogenous analysis is positive.

Summary – GBP Endogenous Analysis

A -15 score on Pound’s Endogenous Analysis indicates that this currency has depreciated since the beginning of 2020.

Summary – CAD Endogenous Analysis

  • Canada Employment Rate

The Canadian employment rate measures the percentage of the labor force that is employed during a particular period. The developments in the labor market are a leading indicator of overall economic growth. When the economy is expanding, there are more job openings, hence a higher employment rate. Conversely, when the economy is going through a recession, businesses close down, leading to a dropping employment rate.

In November 2020, the employment rate in Canada rose to 59.5% from 59.4% in October. Although the employment rate has been steadily increasing from the lows of 52.1% in April, it is still lower than in January. Canada’s employment rate has a score of -6.

  • Canada Core Consumer Prices

This index measures the overall change in Canada’s inflation rate based on a survey of price changes for a basket of consumer goods. The rate of inflation gauges the increase in economic activity. Typically, when demand is depressed in an economy, prices drop, resulting in lower inflation. Conversely, when demand increases, prices tend to increase, resulting in a higher rate of inflation.

In November 2020, Canada’s core consumer prices rose to 136.6 points from 136.3 in October. Between January and November, the index has increased by 2 points. It has a score of 3.

  • Canada Manufacturing Production

This index measures the YoY change in the value of the output from the Canadian manufacturing sector. Canadian manufacturing is a significant contributor to the labor market and economic growth. In the age of the coronavirus disruption, changes in manufacturing production show how faster the economy is bouncing back.

In September 2020, the YoY manufacturing production in Canada dropped by 4.24%. This is an improvement compared to the 5.34% drop recorded in August. Canadian manufacturing production has a score of -2.

  • Canada Business Confidence

The Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) measures monthly business confidence in Canada. In the survey, private and public companies rate whether the current business activity is higher or lower than the previous month. The index survey aspects including inventories, purchases, deliveries from suppliers, output prices, and employment.

When the index is over 50, it means that purchases have increased from the preceding month. Reading of below 50 shows a decrease in purchases.

In November 2020, Canadian business confidence dropped to 52.7 from 54.5 in October. This was the lowest reading since May, when the economy began rebounding from the shocks of  COVID-19. Consequently, Canada’s business confidence has a score of 1.

  • Canada Consumer Spending

This measures the final market value of all household expenditures on goods and services. It also includes expenditure by non-profit organizations that serve households in Canada but excludes purchases of homes. Consumer spending plays a critical role in economic growth.

In Q3 of 2020, consumer spending in Canada rose to CAD 1.13 trillion from CAD 1 trillion in Q2. However, it is still lower than consumer spending recorded in Q1. Thus, Canada’s consumer spending has a score of -4.

  • Canada New Housing Price Index

The Canadian NHPI measures the changes in the selling price of newly built residential houses. The price measured is that paid by the home buyers to the contractors. Note that the price comparison is strictly between houses of the same specification. The NHPI shows the construction sector’s growth trends; hence, it corresponds to changes in the labor market and GDP growth.

In November 2020, the Canadian NHPI rose to 107.9 from 107.3 in October. Thus, we assign a score of 3.

  • Canada Government Budget Value

This indicator tracks the changes in the difference between the Canadian government revenues and expenditures. It shows whether the government is running a surplus or a deficit. It also breaks down the changes in the receipts by the government. This helps to show how the overall economy is fairing.

In October 2020, the Canadian government budget had a deficit of CAD 18.51 billion compared to CAD 27.59 billion in September. Throughout the year, the budget deficits have been due to the economic shocks brought on by the coronavirus pandemic. The Canadian government had to ramp up expenditure through its Economic Response Plan, while revenues dropped in the same period. We assign it a score of -5.

Conclusion

Indicator Score Total State Comment
Canada Employment Rate -6 10 59.5% in November 2020 The employment rate is steadily increasing. It is, however, still below January levels
Canada Core Consumer Prices 3 10 136.6 points in November 2020 Since January, it has increased by 2 points. That shows demand in the economy has kept prices higher
Canada Manufacturing Production -2 10 YoY dropped by 4.24% in September 2020 A slight increase from -5.34% recorded in August. This shows that the manufacturing production is returning to the pre-pandemic levels
Canada Business Confidence 1 10 52.7 in November November level was the lowest since the economy began to recover in May. It’s expected to improve as mass vaccinations against COVID-19 rolls out
Canada Consumer Spending -4 10 Was CAD 1.13 trillion Q3 2020 Recovered from CAD 1 trillion in Q2 but still lower than Q1. This shows that demand is increasing in the economy
Canada New Housing Price Index 3 10 November NHPI was 107.9 It has been increasing, which shows that output in the construction industry is improving
Canada Government Budget Value -5 10 a budget deficit of CAD 18.51 billion in October The deficit widened in 2020, driven by unprecedented fiscal policies to curb recessionary pressure from the pandemic
TOTAL SCORE -10

A score of -10 indicates that the CAD has depreciated since the beginning of the year 2020.

In the next article, you can find the exogenous analysis of GBP/CAD where we have forecasted this pair’s future price movements. Cheers.

GBP/CAD Exogenous Analysis

  • The UK and Canada Current Account Differential

The current account differential between the UK and Canada can determine if the GBP/CAD pair is bullish or bearish. If the differential is positive, it means that the UK has a higher current account balance than Canada. This would imply that the GBP is in higher demand in the forex market than the CAD; hence, it is a bullish trend for the pair. Conversely, if the current account differential is negative, it means that the UK has a lesser current balance than Canada. It would imply that the GBP has a lower demand than the CAD in the forex market; hence, a bearish trend for the pair.

In Q3 of 2020, the UK had a current account deficit of $20.97 billion while Canada had a $5.83 billion deficit. Thus, the current account differential is -$15.14 billion. We assign a score of -2.

The interest rate differential is the difference between the Bank of England’s interest rate and that by the Bank of Canada. In the forex market, carry traders use the interest rate differential to decide whether to buy or short a currency pair. When the interest rate differential is positive, traders will earn the differential by going long. If the differential is negative, traders can earn the differential by shorting the currency pair.

Therefore, if the GBP/CAD pair’s interest rate differential is positive, the pair is bound to adopt a bullish trend. Conversely, if negative, the pair is bound to be bearish.

In 2020, the interest rate in the UK dropped from 0.75% to 0.1%. In Canada, the BOC cut the interest rate from 1.75% to 0.25%. Therefore, the interest rate differential is -0.15%. The interest rate differential between the UK and Canada has a score of -1.

  • The differential in GDP growth rate between the UK and Canada

This differential measures the changes in the growth rate between the two economies. It is a preferred method of comparison since economies are of different sizes. Naturally, the economy with a higher GDP growth rate will have its currency appreciate more. Therefore, if the GDP growth rate differential is positive, it means that the GBP/CAD pair is bullish. If negative, then the pair is bearish.

During the first three quarters of 2020, the UK economy has contracted by 5.8%, while the Canadian economy has contracted by 3.3%. This makes the GDP growth rate differential -2.5%. Hence, a score of -1.

Conclusion

Indicator Score Total State Comment
The UK and Canada Current Account Differential -2 10 A differential of – $15.14 The UK has a higher deficit than Canada
The interest rate differential between the UK and Canada -1 10 -0.15% Expected to remain at -0.15% until either economy have recovered
The differential in GDP growth rate between the UK and Canada -1 10 3.30% The Canadian economy contracted at a slower pace than the UK economy
TOTAL SCORE -4

 

The cumulative score for the exogenous factors is -4. This means that we can expect the GBP/CAD pair to trade in a downtrend in the short term. However, technical analysis shows the pair adopting a bullish trend with the weekly chart trading above the 200-period MA. More so, the pair is seen bouncing off the lower Bollinger band.

Keep an eye on the near-term changes in the exogenous factors.

 

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Uncategorised

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 29 – Europe’s GDP’s / Consumer Sentiment + Join Forex Academy’s Telegram Signal Channel! 

Dear traders,

We are moving signals from website to telegram channel. If you enjoyed our signals and want to continue to receive ing them, please subscribe to our telegram channel:

The German Prelim GDP q/q, French Flash GDP q/q, and Spanish Flash GDP q/q report will remain in highlights today on the news front. Later Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment and Pending Home Sales m/m can drive market movements today.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

  


 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD closed at 1.21220 after placing a high of 1.21422 and a low of 1.20806. The EUR/USD pair remained higher on Thursday amid the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness and the positive macroeconomic data from the European side. Behind the gradual upward momentum in EUR/USD pair was the U.S. dollar’s weakness driven by the improvement in the market’s appetite for risk. The U.S. Dollar Index that measures the greenback’s value against major currencies dropped by 0.3% and weighed on the U.S. dollar, supporting the upward momentum in EUR/USD pair on Thursday.

On the data front, from the U.S. side, at 18:30 GMT, the Advance GDP for the quarter declined to 4.0% against the forecasted 4.2% and weighed on the U.S. dollar that capped further gains in EUR/USD pair. The Unemployment Claims from last week were declined to 847K against the forecasted 880K and supported the U.S. dollar that also limited the upward momentum in EUR/USD pair. The Goods Trade Balance from December declined to -82.58B from the forecasted -83.4B and supported U.S. dollar. For December, the Prelim Wholesale Inventories also fell to 0.1% against the forecasted 0.5% and supported the U.S. dollar.

At 18:32 GMT, the Advance GDP Price Index for the quarter declined to 2.0% against the forecasted 2.2% and weighed on the U.S. dollar hat added further gains in EUR/USD pair. At 20:00 GMT, the C.B. Leading Index for December came in line with a 0.3% forecast. In December from the U.S., the New Home Sales declined to 842K against the forecasted 860K and weighed on U.S. dollar to and pushed the EUR.USD pair are even higher.

From the European side, the German Prelim CPI in January raised to 0.8% against the expected 0.4% and supported Euro that ultimately pushed EUR/USD pair higher. At 13:00 GMT, the Spanish Unemployment Rate dropped to 16.1% against the expected 16.7% and supported Euro to add further gains in EUR/USD pair on Thursday. 

Moreover, Wall Street suffered its biggest one-day percentage decline in three months overnight, with declines accelerated in the wake of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy statement. The Fed signaled a worrying slowdown in the pace of recovery of the world’s top economy and sworn continued support until a full economic rebound was in place. This also weighed on the U.S. dollar and supported an upward momentum in EUR/USD pair.


Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.2054      1.2167

1.1999     1.2225

1.1940      1.2280

Pivot point: 1.2112

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The direct currency pair EUR/USD is trading with a bearish bias at 1.2090, facing immediate resistance at 1.2132 level. The EUR/USD is again forming three black crows on the hourly chart, dispensing the selling trend in the EURUSD pair. On the downside, the pair is expected to go after the 1.2090 and 1.2055 level. The 50 periods EMA are signaling the selling trend in Euro today. Violation of 1.2050 will determine long term trend.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD closed at 1.37267 after placing a high of 1.37458 and a low of 1.36299. The U.S. dollar’s fresh weakness and the rise in British Pound against other major currencies lifted the currency pair GBP/USD on Thursday. Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced no schools until 8-March and laid out a lengthy exit strategy from the lockdown this week. However, a detailed plan will be out on the week of February 22. This showed that Johnson may have learned from past promises and was now going wrong on the side of caution. Because people were expecting an earlier exit from the restrictions and this announcement killed their expectations.

In December, Johnson rejected calls for a lockdown and refused to cancel Christmas, only to back down several days later. However, the U.K. has been vaccinating its population rapidly, which should have led to the lifting restrictions not extending them. Despite all these lockdown developments in the U.K., the British Pound remained amongst the top three best performing G10 currencies on Thursday and supported the upward momentum in GBP/USD pair.

On the data front, from the U.S. side, at 18:30 GMT, the Advance GDP for the quarter fell to 4.0% against the anticipated 4.2% and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added more gains in GBP/USD pair. The Unemployment Claims from last week dipped to 847K against the anticipated 880K, supported the U.S. dollar, and capped further GBP/USD pair gains. The Goods Trade Balance fell to -82.58B from the anticipated -83.4B and supported the U.S. dollar from December. The Prelim Wholesale Inventories for December also fell to 0.1% against the anticipated 0.5% and supported the U.S. dollar. 

At 18:32 GMT, the Advance GDP Price Index for the quarter fell to 2.0% against the anticipated 2.2% and weighed on the U.S. dollar that pushed the currency pair GBP/USD higher. At 20:00 GMT, the C.B. Leading Index for December came in line with the anticipation of 0.3%. The New Home Sales in December from the U.S. fell to 842K against the anticipated 860K and weighed on the U.S. dollar and supported the rising prices of the GBP/USD pair.

The declining GDP numbers from the world’s largest economy in the last quarter of 2020 added weight on the local currency U.S. dollar and supported the GBP/USD pair’s rising prices on Thursday. Furthermore, the market’s risk sentiment was somehow supported by the rally in precious metals markets triggered by speculation that retail traders who had been focusing on pumping stocks like GameStop were now turning their focus to silver. The rising risk sentiment in the market also helped the risk perceived GBP/USD pair rise on Thursday.


Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3643      1.3746

1.3600      1.3804

1.3541      1.3848

Pivot point: 1.3702

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

A day before, the GBP/USD pair traded bullish after violating the narrow trading range of 1.3680 – 1.3670. It placed a high of around 1.3753 level, and it later reversed back to trade between the same trading range of 1.3696 – 1.3646. The GBP/USD may find support around the 1.3647 level, and violation of this level can extend selling bias until 1.3610. Approaching the 2-hour timeframe, the GBP/USD is holding below 10 and 20 periods EMA, and it may extend the selling trend today. Let’s consider taking a sell trade until 1.3645 and 1.361 level.  

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 104.259 after placing a high of 104.460 and a low of 104.053. The currency pair USD/JPY extended its gains on Thursday amid the pickup in risk appetite in the market that drove weakness in both the U.S. dollar and Japanese Yen versus most of their major G10 counterparts due to their safe-haven status. 

However, nominal U.S. yields rose on Thursday, with U.S. Treasury yields on the 10-year note up more than 4bps at 1.06%. It drove an increase in U.S./Japanese rate differentials that favor Japanese Yen flows into the U.S. dollar, supporting the currency pair USD/JPY. On the data front, at 04:50 GMT, the Retail Sales from Japan in December dropped to -0.3% against the expected -0.4% and supported Japanese Yen, and capped further upside in the USD/JPY pair.

From the U.S. side, at 18:30 GMT, the Advance GDP for the quarter decreased to 4.0% against the projected 4.2% and weighed on the U.S. dollar and limited further upside momentum in the USD/JPY pair. Last week, the Unemployment Claims decreased to 847K against the projected 880K and supported the U.S. dollar that added further gains in the USD/JPY pair. The Goods Trade Balance from December decreased to -82.58B from the projected -83.4B and supported the U.S. dollar and pushed the currency pair USD/JPY higher.

 For December, the Prelim Wholesale Inventories also decreased to 0.1% against the projected 0.5% and supported the U.S. dollar that extended gains in the USD/JPY pair. At 18:32 GMT, the Advance GDP Price Index for the quarter decreased to 2.0% against the projected 2.2% and weighed on the U.S. dollar and capped further upside in the USD/JPY pair. At 20:00 GMT, the C.B. Leading Index for December came in line with the projection of 0.3%. In December from the U.S., the New Home Sales decreased to 842K against the projected 860K and weighed on the U.S. dollar and capped further gains in the USD/JPY pair.

Risk appetite in the market took a meaningful turn on Thursday, with U.S. equities erasing losses incurred on Wednesday leading up to the FOMC monetary policy decision event. The ultra-dovish tone of the Federal Reserve was actually seen as positive for the risk appetite as Wednesday’s risk-off was a result of overvaluation fears as well as because of the short-selling hedge funds being forced to liquidate profitable large-cap stock long positions as speculative retail trade-driven mania continued in the likes of GameStop. Furthermore, another reason behind the rising USD/JPY pair prices was that the U.S. stimulus package proposed by Joe Biden did not receive approval from Republicans as of yet. This also supported the U.S. dollar that ultimately added gains in the USD/JPY pair.


Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

103.71      104.34

103.33      104.58

103.09      104.96

Pivot point: 103.96

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Friday, the USD/JPY pair is trading with a bullish bias at 104.475, and it has violated the resistance level of 104.385. It’s likely to lead the USD/JPY pair until the 104.745 level. On the lower side, the USD/JPY may find support at the 104.300 level. The USD/JPY pair is likely to stay bullish as MACD and EMA suggest bullish bias in the USD/JPY pair on the four hourly timeframes. We can expect USDJPY to bounce off upon 104.300 to continue buying trend today. Good luck! 

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Jan 29 – Dogecoin Skyrockets as r/Wallstreetbets Enters on Crypto; Bitcoin Jumps on Elon Musk’s Twitter Profile

The crypto sector ended the day with most of the top cryptocurrencies in the green. Most analysts speculate that the recent wave of buyers came as a result of Dogecoin’s incredible pump, which was caused by the notorious r/WallStreetBets subreddit. Bitcoin is currently trading for $32,964, representing an increase of 5.26% compared to yesterday’s value. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has increased by 1.41% on the day, while Litecoin gained 5.11% of its value.

The crypto sector ended the day with most of the top cryptocurrencies in the green. Most analysts speculate that the recent wave of buyers came as a result of Dogecoin’s incredible pump, which was caused by the notorious r/WallStreetBets subreddit. Bitcoin is currently trading for $32,964, representing an increase of 5.26% compared to yesterday’s value. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has increased by 1.41% on the day, while Litecoin gained 5.11% of its value.

The cryptocurrency space had a wild week, first because of the r/WallStreetBets community entering the market (and pumping Dogecoin’s price by over 1000%) and then because of Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk tweeting about Bitcoin and promoting it. This has, in turn, caused Bitcoin to spike from $31,000 all the way to $38,200 in a matter of one hour. An interesting fact is that Musk’s Twitter bio now has #bitcoin displayed for everyone to see.

The crypto sector ended the day with most of the top cryptocurrencies in the green. Most analysts speculate that the recent wave of buyers came as a result of Dogecoin’s incredible pump, which was caused by the notorious r/WallStreetBets subreddit. Bitcoin is currently trading for $32,964, representing an increase of 5.26% compared to yesterday’s value. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has increased by 1.41% on the day, while Litecoin gained 5.11% of its value.

Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

3X Long Dogecoin Token gained 905.02% in the past 24 hours, making it the most prominent daily crypto gainer by far. It is followed by Dogecoin’s 513.17% and DOGEFI’s 369.90% gain. On the other hand, 3X Short Dogecoin Token lost 99.85%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by Panda Yield’s loss of 83.13% and Psychic’s loss of 72.46%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s market dominance decreased slightly from when we last reported, currently 62.8%. This represents a 0.1% decrease from our previous report.

Weekly Crypto Market Cap Chart

The cryptocurrency sector’s market capitalization has increased greatly since we last reported, with its current value being $979.02 billion. This represents a $54.27billion increase when compared to our previous report.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

_______________________________________________________________________

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

Bitcoin has spent the day attempting to push its price up as the market turned to green. Its price conquered the $32,350 level and pushed higher without hesitation. The move ended as bulls reached exhaustion near the $34,627 level. BTC’s inability to push past its immediate resistance has triggered a pullback, and the cryptocurrency is now most likely to retest the $32,350 level.

The overall change in market direction today came as a result of (as most speculate) Dogecoin’s insane upswing triggered by r/WallStreetBets.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart

Bitcoin’s technicals on all time-frames are either neutral with a slight hint of bullishness or bullish with a slight hint of neutrality.

BTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (1-hour Chart):

  • Price is above its 50-period EMA and at its 21-period EMA
  • Price is at its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (51.01)
  • Volume is above average

Key levels to the upside:          Key levels to the downside:

1: $34,627                             1: $32,350

2: $37,445                             2: $30,072

3: $38,000                             3: $27,960

Ethereum

After yesterday’s failed break of the top downtrend line, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap pushed past and broke its descending pattern. Its price (at one point) went past the $1,350 level, but as bulls couldn’t confidently hold this level, bears initiated a pullback.

Ethereum’s short-term price direction will be dictated by how the cryptocurrency handles the top downtrend line (which is now a support rather than a resistance line) as well as by Bitcoin’s price direction.

ETH/USD 1-hour Chart

Ethereum’s technicals on all time-frames are bullish but also show a hint of bearishness.

ETH/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical Factors (1-hour Chart):

  • Price is slightly below both its 50-period and its 21-period EMA
  • Price slightly below its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (45.66)
  • Volume is average

Key levels to the upside:          Key levels to the downside:

1: $1,350                               1: $1,211

2: $1,420                               2: $1,183.85

3: $1,440                               3: $1047.6

Litecoin

Litecoin has confirmed its position above the $128.4 level after pushing its price above it yesterday. LTC is now in consolidation mode and is currently testing the 21-hour EMA. Its recent moves seem slightly unenthusiastic, meaning that its short-term price direction will most likely be determined by other cryptocurrencies’ movements.

LTC/USD 1-hour Chart

Litecoin’s 4-hour and daily overviews are neutral/bearish, while its weekly and monthly overviews are completely bullish.

LTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (1-hour Chart):

  • Its price is slightly above both its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
  • Price slightly above its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (55.45)
  • Volume is average

Key levels to the upside:          Key levels to the downside:

1: $142.1                               1: $128.42

2: $161.5                               2: $120

3: $181.3                               3: $114.75

Categories
Forex Signals

USD/CAD Enters Overbought Zone – Quick Trade Idea! 

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.28019 after placing a high of 1.28224 and a low of 1.26851. Since January 11 on Wednesday, amid the US dollar’s broad-based strength and declining crude oil prices, the currency pair rose to its highest. The US Dollar Index measures the greenback’s value against the basket of six major currencies settled above 90.50 level and supported the US dollar. The US dollar gained traction in the market ahead of the US Federal Reserve monetary policy decision and its safe-haven status.

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.28019 after placing a high of 1.28224 and a low of 1.26851. Since January 11 on Wednesday, amid the US dollar’s broad-based strength and declining crude oil prices, the currency pair rose to its highest. The US Dollar Index measures the greenback’s value against the basket of six major currencies settled above 90.50 level and supported the US dollar. The US dollar gained traction in the market ahead of the US Federal Reserve monetary policy decision and its safe-haven status.

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.28019 after placing a high of 1.28224 and a low of 1.26851. Since January 11 on Wednesday, amid the US dollar’s broad-based strength and declining crude oil prices, the currency pair rose to its highest. The US Dollar Index measures the greenback’s value against the basket of six major currencies settled above 90.50 level and supported the US dollar. The US dollar gained traction in the market ahead of the US Federal Reserve monetary policy decision and its safe-haven status.

The risk-averse market mood driven by the rising fears about the negative impact of the lockdown restrictions provided support to the safe-haven US dollar. The US dollar strength remained intact even after the Federal Reserve policy announcement on Wednesday and pushed the currency pair USD/CAD higher on board.

The US Federal Reserve kept its interest rates near zero and asset purchase program at the same pace of $120 billion per month. The Bank stated that the US economic recovery remains moderate throughout the month. The economic path was dependent on the progress made in the pandemic and the vaccination program. These comments from the US Central bank and its Chairman gave strength to the local currency greenback that ultimately added gains in the currency pair USD/CAD on Wednesday.

On the data front, at 18:30 GMT, the Core Durable Goods Orders for December increased to 0.7% against the projected 0.5% and supported the US dollar that added further gains in the USD/CAD pair. In December, the Durable Goods Orders weakened to 0.2% against the projected 1.0%, weighed on the US dollar, and capped further upside momentum in the USD/CAD pair.

On the other hand, there was no macroeconomic data from the Canadian side, and on the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil front, the oil remained under pressure due to rising prices of the US dollar. The crude oil fell to $51.84 on Wednesday and weighed on the commodity-linked currency Loonie, which ultimately pushed the already rising USD/CAD pair. 


Entry Price – Sell 1.2879

Stop Loss – 1.2930

Take Profit – 1.2810

Risk to Reward – 1:1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.

iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368

Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

Categories
Forex Signals

AUD/USD Get Ready for Bullish Correction – Buy Signal Update! 

The AUD/USD pair was closed at 0.76630 after placing a high of 0.77636 and a low of 0.76432. The AUD/USD pair reversed its direction on Wednesday and started posting losses for the day due to rising US dollar demand and risk-averse market sentiment. The risk-sensitive Australian dollar suffered on Wednesday as the risk-off market environment started to emerge over the rising concerns of the negative impact of current lockdown restrictions in many nations. The total number of coronavirus cases worldwide reached 100 million and was rising day by day that raised global economic concerns despite the vaccine rollout. These concerns added to the risk-off market sentiment and weighed on the risk perceived Aussie that ultimately dragged the AUD.USD pair on the downside on Wednesday.

The AUD/USD pair was closed at 0.76630 after placing a high of 0.77636 and a low of 0.76432. The AUD/USD pair reversed its direction on Wednesday and started posting losses for the day due to rising US dollar demand and risk-averse market sentiment. The risk-sensitive Australian dollar suffered on Wednesday as the risk-off market environment started to emerge over the rising concerns of the negative impact of current lockdown restrictions in many nations. The total number of coronavirus cases worldwide reached 100 million and was rising day by day that raised global economic concerns despite the vaccine rollout. These concerns added to the risk-off market sentiment and weighed on the risk perceived Aussie that ultimately dragged the AUD.USD pair on the downside on Wednesday.

The AUD/USD pair was closed at 0.76630 after placing a high of 0.77636 and a low of 0.76432. The AUD/USD pair reversed its direction on Wednesday and started posting losses for the day due to rising US dollar demand and risk-averse market sentiment. The risk-sensitive Australian dollar suffered on Wednesday as the risk-off market environment started to emerge over the rising concerns of the negative impact of current lockdown restrictions in many nations. The total number of coronavirus cases worldwide reached 100 million and was rising day by day that raised global economic concerns despite the vaccine rollout. These concerns added to the risk-off market sentiment and weighed on the risk perceived Aussie that ultimately dragged the AUD.USD pair on the downside on Wednesday.

The risk-averse market sentiment was also supported by the latest announcement from AstraZeneca and Pfizer, who reported a production difficulty and said that there would be a delay in vaccine delivery that ultimately raised the economic recovery concerns that were connected with the vaccination process. Meanwhile, the US and China’s rising disruptions were also supporting the risk-off market sentiment and weighing on the AUD/USD pair on Wednesday. The US President Joe Biden’s nominee for ambassador to the United Nations, Linda Thomas Greenfield, stressed the importance of US re-engagement with the 193-member world body to challenge China’s efforts to drive an authoritarian agenda.

Beijing has been challenging the traditional US leadership and pushing for greater global influence. The tension between the two superpowers reached its highest in the United Nations last year over the coronavirus pandemic. Greenfield stated that the US broadly has to re-engage with its allies and opponents as she criticized the Trump administration, particularly on its failed efforts to get North Korea to surrender its nuclear weapons program and for trying to “go it alone”.

She also added that Washington needed to pay its dues to the world body (UN). The United States that used to be the largest UN contributor, is currently in arrears about $2 billion for the peacekeeping budget and about $600 million for the regular budget. The fight for greater global influence between China and the US has weighed heavily on the global economy during Trump’s tenure and if the same continued during Biden’s presidency, then the global economy could suffer more. These concerns kept supporting the risk-averse market sentiment and pushed the US dollar that ultimately weighed on AUD/USD pair on Wednesday.

On the data front, at 18:30 GMT, the Core Durable Goods Orders for December improved to 0.7% against the predicted 0.5% and supported the US dollar, and added further losses in AUD/USD pair. In December, the Durable Goods Orders dropped to 0.2% against the predicted 1.0% and weighed on the US dollar.

From the Australian side, at 04:30 GMT, the MI Leading Index for January dropped to 0.1% against December’s 0.7%. At 05:30 GMT, the quarter’s CPI raised to 0.9% against the forecasted 0.7% and supported the Australian dollar that capped further losses in AUD/USD pair. The Trimmed Mean CPI for the quarter remained flat with the expectations of 0.4%. The NAB Business Confidence in December came in as 4 against the previous 13. 

Meanwhile, the US dollar’s strength due to the Federal Reserve monetary policy decision on Wednesday also kept the pair AUD/USD under pressure. The Fed kept its interest rates at the same level near zero and also maintained its asset purchase program at $120 billion per month. 

However, the US central bank said that the economic path was totally dependent on the pandemic progress and the vaccination program. This also supported the US dollar and weighed on AUD/USD pair.


Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

0.7688 0.7776

0.7635 0.7809

0.7601 0.7863

Pivot point: 0.7722

Entry Price – Buy 0.76188

Stop Loss – 0.75788

Take Profit – 0.76588

Risk to Reward – 1:1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.

iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368

Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 28 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Advance GDP in Focus!

Later today, the focus will remain on the German Prelim CPI and Advance GDP figures from the U.S. both of the events are expected to perform worse than before as the data represents the economic activity of the lockdown period. So most of it is already priced in. However, the U.S. Jobless claims will remain in the highlights, and these are expected to rise again, perhaps due to the second wave of COVID19 in the U.S.

Later today, the focus will remain on the German Prelim CPI and Advance GDP figures from the U.S. both of the events are expected to perform worse than before as the data represents the economic activity of the lockdown period. So most of it is already priced in. However, the U.S. Jobless claims will remain in the highlights, and these are expected to rise again, perhaps due to the second wave of COVID19 in the U.S.

Later today, the focus will remain on the German Prelim CPI and Advance GDP figures from the U.S. both of the events are expected to perform worse than before as the data represents the economic activity of the lockdown period. So most of it is already priced in. However, the U.S. Jobless claims will remain in the highlights, and these are expected to rise again, perhaps due to the second wave of COVID19 in the U.S.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

  

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.21117 after placing a high of 1.21696 and a low of 1.20581. The EUR/USD pair posted losses on Wednesday as the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark short-term interest rates unchanged near zero and maintained an asset purchasing program at $120 billion a month. 

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee released its statement from the January meeting that stated that the pace of recovery in economic activity and employment has moderate in recent months with weakness concentrated in the sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic. 

According to the statement, the coronavirus pandemic was causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and worldwide. The committee also stated that the economy’s path would depend significantly on the course of the virus, including the progress on vaccination.

The market’s reaction to the Federal Reserve policy decision kept the EUR/USD pair under pressure, and hence, the currency pair started to extend its losses on Wednesday. Whereas the single currency Euro faced mixed movements throughout the day, the currency remained under pressure with fresh speculations that the ECB could soon cut Eurozone interest rates. The Central Bank was reportedly concerned that markets were pricing out the chances of more interest rate cuts from the ECB. 

Furthermore, the fears for vaccine shortage in Eurozone also weighed on the single currency on Wednesday after the European Union called out vaccine makers AstraZeneca and Pfizer over delivery delays that could slow its recovery from the pandemic. Officials were even threatening to restrict exports and take legal actions as anger mounts. 

According to E.U. officials, AstraZeneca will not deliver as many doses as it promised and has put the government rollout plans and economic recovery at risk. The news came in after Pfizer said that it had delivered fewer doses of its vaccine than expected last week. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen turned up the pharmaceutical companies’ heat and said that Europe had invested billions in helping develop the world’s first coronavirus vaccine to create a truly global common good, and now companies must deliver and honor their obligations. 

The European Union has devoted part of 2.7 billion euros emergency fund to assist with vaccine development. E.U. countries we recounted on the vaccines to rein in the health crisis and jumpstart their economies, but now they were forced to modify their plans. Furthermore, the E.U. urged the pharmaceutical firm AstraZeneca to supply it with more coronavirus vaccine doses from U.K. plants to row over shortages. However, the company denied and said that the production delay in European plants could only deliver a fraction of the doses it promised for the first quarter of the year. However, the E.U. insisted that doses made elsewhere should make up the shortfall and d criticize the slow rollout of vaccination.

This vaccine drama in the European Union raised concerns over the delayed economic recovery and added weight on the single currency Euro that ultimately added EUR/USD pair losses on Wednesday.

On a data front, at 18:30 GMT, the Core Durable Goods Orders for December rose to 0.7% against the expected 0.5% and supported the U.S. dollar that added more losses in EUR/USD pair. 

In December, the Durable Goods Orders dropped to 0.2% against the expected 1.0% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. From the European side, at 12:00 GMT, the German GfK Consumer Climate dropped in January to -15.6 against the forecasted -7.8. It weighed on Euro that ultimately dragged the currency pair EUR/USD further on the downside on Wednesday. 


Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.2119 1.2189

1.2079 1.2217

1.2050 1.2258

Pivot point: 1.2148

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD pair is trading with a bearish bias at 1.2090, facing immediate resistance at 1.2120 level. The EUR/USD is closing three black crows on the hourly timeframe, suggesting selling bias in the pair. On the lower side, the pair is expected to go after 1.2095 and 1.2060 level. The 50 periods EMA are suggesting selling bias in Euro today.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.36887 after placing a high of 1.37586 and a low of 1.36590. On Wednesday, the currency pair GBP/USD dropped and posted losses for the day amid the broad-based U.S. dollar strength after the FOMC statement and Fed’s monetary policy decision.

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee released its statement from January’s meeting on Wednesday that mentioned that the Fed will keep its interest rates near zero and maintain the asset purchasing program of $120 billion per month.

Federal Reserve said that the economic path would solely be decided by pandemic and vaccine rollout developments. Other than this, everything stated in the statement issued by FOMC was just as expected and supported the U.S. dollar that ultimately kept the GBP/USD pair under pressure for the day. On the data front, at 18:30 GMT, the Core Durable Goods Orders for December surged to 0.7% against the anticipated 0.5% and supported the U.S. dollar that ultimately added weight on GBP/USD pair. In December, the Durable Goods Orders fell to 0.2% against the anticipated 1.0% and weighed on the U.S. dollar that capped further GBP/USD pair losses. 

From Britain’s side, at 05:01 GMT, the BRC Shop Price Index for the year came in as -2.2% against the previous -1.8%.

The GBP/USD pair rose to its highest since May 2018 on Wednesday however failed to remain there and reversed its direction. The rise in the GBP/USD pair during the session’s early trading hours could be attributed to U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s latest comments.

The PM has said that he hopes that a gradual and phased relaxation of coronavirus restrictions could begin in early March. Johnson said that he intended to set out a plan to ease the lockdown in England. The factors will include death and hospitalization numbers, the progress of vaccinations, and changes in viruses.

He also ruled out schools in England re-opening after the February half term instead set a target of 8-March. He also announced a 10-day self-funded quarantine restriction for all travelers entering the U.K. from high-risk countries under tighter border restrictions to combat new variants of coronavirus. The PM was under pressure from Tory MPs to spell out plans for how the current lockdown will end. Then PM replied that relaxing restriction would depend on emerging data about how effectively the vaccine stops virus transmission. These comments from UK PM raised the local currency, British Pound, to economic recovery and pushed the pair GBP/USD in early trading hours. However, the strength of the U.S. dollar due to the Federal Reserve’s decision in the January monetary policy meeting added pressure on the currency pair. It dragged GBP/USD to the downside.


Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.3647 1.3783

1.3560 1.3832

1.3511 1.3918

Pivot point: 1.3696

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

A day before, the GBP/USD pair traded bullish after violating the narrow trading range of 1.3680 – 1.3670. It placed a high of around 1.3753 level, and it later reversed back to trade between the same trading range of 1.3696 – 1.3646. The GBP/USD may find support around the 1.3647 level, and violation of this level can extend selling bias until 1.3610. Approaching the 2-hour timeframe, the GBP/USD is holding below 10 and 20 periods EMA, and it may extend the selling trend today. Let’s consider taking a sell trade until 1.3645 and 1.361 level.  

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 104.108 after placing a high of 104.197 and a low of 103.579. The USD/JPY pair rose and reached its nine-day highest level on the back of the U.S. dollar’s broad-based strength. 

The currency pair USD/JPY touched its highest since January 19 and surpassed 104 level on Wednesday as the greenback became strong on board. The currency pair preserved its bullish momentum as the U.S. Dollar Index that measures the greenback’s value against the basket of six major currencies rose to a weekly top at 90.62 on Wednesday and boosted the safe-haven U.S. dollar. The strength in the U.S. dollar then ultimately pushed the currency pair USD/JPY on the upside.

The risk-averse market sentiment was confirmed by the declining S&P 500 futures that lost more than 1% on the day. Wall Street’s main indexes also started the day in negative territory and supported the U.S. dollar and USD/JPY pair. On the data front, at 18:30 GMT, the Core Durable Goods Orders for December advanced to 0.7% against the estimated 0.5% and supported the U.S. dollar, and added further gains in the USD/JPY pair. In December, the Durable Goods Orders plunged to 0.2% against the estimated 1.0% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. Nevertheless, investors largely ignored the data as the focus was solely on the FOMC’s policy announcement.

The first policy meeting under Joe Biden’s presidency had all the investors’ focus, and that kept driving the whole market on Wednesday. The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made clear that the U.S. Central bank was nowhere near exiting massive support for the economy during the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. The Federal Reserve officials kept the benchmark interest rates unchanged near zero and flagged a moderating U.S. recovery in a statement released by FOMC for the January meeting. The bank repeated that it would maintain its bond-buying program at the current pace of $120 billion of purchases per month until substantial further progress towards its employment and inflation goals. 

After this announcement, the Yields on U.S. 10-year Treasury notes hovered just above 1%, and the U.S. dollar held its gains while the S&P 500 closed 2.6%, down from its steepest drop since October amid growing concerns that stocks have become overvalued. FOMC said in a statement that the pace of the recovery in economic activity and employment has moderated in months, with weaknesses concentrated in the sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic. Central Bank also said that the path for the economy would depend significantly not just on the coronavirus but also on vaccination progress. There was no macroeconomic data from Japan to be released on Wednesday, so the pair USD/JPY continued following the developments made in the U.S. front and continued rising on the day.


Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

103.49 103.77

103.38 103.94

103.20 104.05

Pivot point: 103.66

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY pair is trading with a bullish bias at 104.350, and violation of this level is likely to lead the USD/JPY pair until the 104.745 level. On the lower side, the USD/JPY may find support at the 104.198 level. We can expect USDJPY to bounce off upon the 104.198 level today. On the 4 hour timeframe, the USDJPY pair is likely to close a doji candle below 104.368 level. If this happens, we may see a bearish correction in the USD/JPY pair. Good luck! 

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Jan 28 – Bitcoin Strong Bounce off the 30K level, Altcoins Reversals Followed

The crypto sector ended up almost completely in the red, though most cryptos barely lost any value. Bitcoin is currently trading for $31,200, representing a decrease of 1.13% compared to yesterday’s value. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has decreased by 0.95% on the day, while LTC lost 2.06% of its value.

The crypto sector ended up almost completely in the red, though most cryptos barely lost any value. Bitcoin is currently trading for $31,200, representing a decrease of 1.13% compared to yesterday’s value. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has decreased by 0.95% on the day, while LTC lost 2.06% of its value.

The crypto sector ended up almost completely in the red, though most cryptos barely lost any value. Bitcoin is currently trading for $31,200, representing a decrease of 1.13% compared to yesterday’s value. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has decreased by 0.95% on the day, while LTC lost 2.06% of its value.

Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

Zero Collateral Dai gained 828.50% in the past 24 hours, making it the most prominent daily crypto gainer by far. It is followed by QuadrantProtocol’s 327.68% and 3x Long Dogecoin Token’s 137.80% gain. On the other hand, EveryCoin lost 89.97%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by Zugacoin’s loss of 79.94% and TokenPay’s loss of 50.46%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s market dominance decreased slightly from when we last reported, currently 62.9%. This represents a 0.2% decrease from our previous report.

Weekly Crypto Market Cap Chart

The cryptocurrency sector’s market capitalization has decreased very slightly since we last reported, with its current value being $924.75 billion. This represents a $10.78 billion decrease when compared to our previous report.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

_______________________________________________________________________

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

 

After another day of its price moving towards the downside, Bitcoin attempted a rally towards the $32,350 mark. After its price establishing strong support at the $30,000 level, the largest cryptocurrency by market cap started surging. There is a strong chance that BTC will pass the $32,350 level if the hourly candle ends up above the 21-hour EMA.

Scott Minerd, the CIO of investment services firm Guggenheim, said that the institutional demand is insufficient to keep BTC above $30,000. Many analysts agree with this short-term assessment, while almost all of them are bullish in the long-term.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart

Bitcoin’s daily overview is mostly neutral (with some hints of bearishness), while its weekly and monthly overviews are tilted towards the buy-side. On the other hand, its 4-hour time-frame is completely bearish.

BTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (1-hour Chart):

  • Price is above its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
  • Price is slightly above its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (56.39)
  • Volume is above average

Key levels to the upside:          Key levels to the downside:

1: $32,350                             1: $30,072

2: $34,627                             2: $30,000

3: $37,445                             3: $27,960

Ethereum

The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap spent the day testing the $1,211 level multiple times. After the support level held up on various occasions, ETH bulls entered the market and started pushing its price up. However, it is still uncertain whether this push towards the upside will end as another lower high and a continuation of the downtrend, or a break from the trend.

Ethereum’s immediate downside is guarded by the 21-hour and 50-hour EMAs, while its first major resistance level is the $1,350 mark, as well as the descending line that connects ETH’s recent lower highs.

ETH/USD 1-hour Chart

Ethereum’s technicals on the daily, weekly, and monthly time-frames are tilted towards the buy-side but also show some neutrality. Its 4-hour overview, however, is slightly bearish.

ETH/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical Factors (1-hour Chart):

  • Price is above both its 50-period and its 21-period EMA
  • Price at its top Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (57.04)
  • Volume is average

Key levels to the upside:          Key levels to the downside:

1: $1,350                               1: $1,211

2: $1,420                               2: $1,183.85

3: $1,440                               3: $1047.6

Litecoin

Litecoin managed to break out from its downtrend after breaking the $128.4 mark. What’s surprising is that such a strong trend was broken by just average volume. LTC found support in the 21-hour EMA, which currently stands right below the price level.

Litecoin has a zone of heavy resistance straight above it (above $130). It is very unlikely that it can “survive” without a major boost in volume, especially in these market conditions.

LTC/USD 1-hour Chart

Litecoin’s daily overview is mostly neutral (with some hints of bearishness), while its weekly and monthly overviews are tilted towards the buy-side. On the other hand, its 4-hour time-frame is completely bearish.

LTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (1-hour Chart):

  • Its price is above both its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
  • Price at its top Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (58.51)
  • Volume is average

Key levels to the upside:          Key levels to the downside:

1: $142.1                               1: $128.42

2: $161.5                               2: $120

3: $181.3                               3: $114.75

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Jan 27 – Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Litecoin (LTC) Price Analysis

The crypto sector ended up either slightly red or slightly green, with only rare exceptions making significant moves to either side. Bitcoin is currently trading for $31,679, representing an increase of 0.51% compared to yesterday’s value. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has decreased by 1.61% on the day, while LTC lost 3.33% of its value.

Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

Coupon Chain gained 74575.19% in the past 24 hours, making it the most prominent daily crypto gainer by far. It is followed by YVS.Finance’s 683.5% and Chonk’s 198.23% gain. On the other hand, Narwhale.finance lost 72.98%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by 3X Short Matic Token’s loss of 67.68% and MangoChain’s loss of 66.24%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s market dominance increased slightly from when we last reported, currently 63.1%. This represents a 0.2% increase from our previous report.

Weekly Crypto Market Cap Chart

The cryptocurrency sector’s market capitalization has decreased very slightly since we last reported, with its current value being $935.58 billion. This represents a $0.96 billion decrease when compared to our previous report.

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What happened in the past 24 hours?

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Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

After a day of attempting to break out of its slightly descending channel, Bitcoin has returned to the downtrend. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap tried to regain the $32,350 level but failed in doing so. This created a strong sell-wall above its current price of just below $32,000.

Bitcoin’s immediate upside is guarded by the 21-hour and 50-hour EMAs, as well as the 32,350 level. Its downside, however, is a free-fall until the zone above $30,000.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart

Bitcoin’s daily overview is mostly neutral (with some hints of bearishness), while its weekly and monthly overviews are slightly bullish. On the other hand, its 4-hour time-frame is completely bearish.

BTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (1-hour Chart):

  • Price is slightly below its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
  • Price is slightly under its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (46.41)
  • Volume is average

Key levels to the upside:          Key levels to the downside:

1: $32,350                             1: $30,072

2: $34,627                             2: $30,000

3: $37,445                             3: $27,960

Ethereum

The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap returned to mirroring Bitcoin’s movement after entering its consolidation phase. Ethereum has, after failing to break the $1,350 level, returned to its slightly-downwards movement. The zone just above the $1,300 level mentioned yesterday was also broken, meaning that ETH is now trading between $1,211 to the downside and $1,350 to the upside.

Ethereum’s immediate upside is guarded by the 21-hour and 50-hour EMAs, as well as the $1,350 level. Its first major support level is sitting at $1,211.

ETH/USD 1-hour Chart

Ethereum’s technicals on the daily, weekly, and monthly time-frames are tilted towards the buy-side, but all have neutral oscillators. Its 4-hour overview, however, is completely neutral.

ETH/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical Factors (1-hour Chart):

  • Price is slightly below both its 50-period and its 21-period EMA
  • Price slightly below its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (46.02)
  • Volume is average

Key levels to the upside:          Key levels to the downside:

1: $1,350                               1: $1,211

2: $1,420                               2: $1,183.85

3: $1,440                               3: $1047.6

Litecoin

Litecoin has seemingly created a double bottom formation after hitting and staying above the $128.4 level twice. This may be a bullish signal for LTC traders, but the move needs to be accompanied by at least a slight increase in volume.

Despite creating a double bottom, LTC will have a hard time moving past the 21-hour and 50-hour EMAs, as they seem to be its immediate resistance levels. On the other hand, its $128.4 support level is holding up well for now, making it very uncertain where LTC will go in the short-term.

LTC/USD 1-hour Chart

Litecoin’s daily overview is mostly neutral (with some hints of bearishness), while its weekly and monthly overviews are slightly bullish. On the other hand, its 4-hour time-frame is completely bearish.

LTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (1-hour Chart):

  • Its price is below both its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
  • Price slightly below its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (41.89)
  • Volume is slightly below average

Key levels to the upside:          Key levels to the downside:

1: $142.1                               1: $128.42

2: $161.5                               2: $120

3: $181.3                               3: $114.75

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 27 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Big Day, Fed Rate Ahead! 

On the news front, the eyes will remain on the FOMC Statement and Federal Funds Rate, which is not expected to change the interest rate. Still, it will help us understand U.S. economic situation and policymakers’ stance on it. Besides, the Durable Goods Orders m/m from the U.S. will also remain in highlights.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD closed at 1.21595 after placing a high of 1.21756 and a low of 1.21076. The EUR/USD pair edged higher on Tuesday as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) dropped and the risk appetite in the market witnessed a major turnaround. After a mixed start on the session, the European equities embarked upon a recovery mode and brought back the market’s risk sentiment. The pan-European benchmark, the Euro Stoxx 50, rallied by 1% and lifted the overall market mood. Whereas, the safe-haven U.S. dollar came under pressure after a rise in European equities and come back of risk sentiment that ultimately added gains in the currency pair EUR/USD on Tuesday.

In the early Asian trading session, the main currency pair EUR/USD extended its previous day’s bearish sentiment and fell below 1.2108, on the back of the U.S. dollar’s strength gathered by the risk-off market mood driven by the deadlock over U.S. fiscal stimulus and the renewed US-China tensions over the South China Sea.

On Tuesday, China said that it would conduct military exercises in the South China Sea this week, just days after complaining that a U.S. aircraft carrier group has sailed through the disputed waters. These rising tensions between the world’s two largest economies raised the safe-haven appeal in early trading hours on Tuesday. They lifted the greenback that ultimately dragged the currency pair EUR/USD on the downside.

 However, during early European trading hours, the risk-sentiment started to come back as the positive shift in the tone of the news flow on the coronavirus front. Moderna and Pfizer announced that they were looking into coronavirus booster shots that would specifically target building immunity to variants of the virus, such as that discovered in South Africa a few weeks ago. 

Furthermore, Johnson & Johnson’s CFO has said earlier that they expect to release COVID-19 vaccine trial data next week. The company was very optimistic that they will be releasing a very robust data set. The J&J’s vaccine has been advertised as a game-changer in the vaccination race as it would only require one shot to acquire full immunity. This vaccine-related optimism helped risk sentiment in the market and supported riskier assets like EUR/USD pair on Tuesday.

On the data front, there was no macroeconomic data released from the European side. In contrast, from the U.S. side, at 19:00 GMT, the Housing Price Index from the U.S. for November rose to 1.0% against the forecasted 0.9% and supported the U.S. dollar that capped further upside in the EUR/USD pair. 

The S&P/CS Composite -20 HPI for the year also rose to 9.1% against the forecasted 8.8% and supported the U.S. dollar. At 19:59 GMT, the Richmond Manufacturing Index for January declined to 14 against the forecasted 18 and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added gains in the EUR/USD pair. At 20:00 GMT, the C.B. Consumer Confidence in January rose to 89.3 against the forecasted 88.9 and supported the U.S. dollar and limited further gains in the EUR/USD pair on Tuesday.


Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.2108     1.2177

1.2077     1.2215

1.2039    1.2245

Pivot Point: 1.2146

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.2156, facing immediate resistance at 1.2165 level. The EUR/USD has entered the overbought zone on the hourly timeframe, suggesting odds of bearish correction in the pair. On the lower side, the pair is likely to complete 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2150 and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2134. Selling bias seems strong.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.37363 after placing a high of 1.37443 and a low of 1.36092. GBP/USD pair rebounded on Tuesday during early European trading hours after falling below 1.36100 level. The GBP/USD pair’s comeback was due to the recovered risk appetite in the market and Britain’s strong job report.

However, despite the strong macroeconomic data from Great Britain, the GBP/USD pair benefited from the broad U.S. dollar’s weakness on Tuesday as investors focused more on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s upcoming decision. The risk appetite took a significant turn during the early European trading hours after a downbeat Asa Pacific session. It weighed on the safe-haven U.S. dollar that ultimately lifted the GBP/USD pair on Tuesday. U.S. stocks were high, European equities erased most of Monday’s losses, the crude oil market was also high, and bond yields were rising on both sides of the Atlantic. 

The reason behind the turnaround of the risk sentiment was the positive vaccine news, as Moderna and Pfizer announced last night that they were starting investigating a booster vaccine shot that will come between 6-12 months after the second doses and will provide immunity against the new variants of coronavirus like the one emerged in South Africa in the past few days. Meanwhile, the Johnson & Johnson CFO also said on Tuesday that they expect to release the trail data for their coronavirus vaccine next week. They were very optimistic that the data will be robust and have claimed that their vaccine will be a game-changer in the vaccine race as it will provide full immunity in a single shot.

The rising risk sentiment in the market helped the risk perceived GBP/USD currency pair gain traction and rose to post gains for the day. On the data front, at 19:00 GMT, the Housing Price Index from the U.S. for November surged to 1.0% against the projected 0.9% and supported the U.S. dollar, and capped further upside in the GBP/USD pair. The S&P/CS Composite -20 HPI for the year also surged to 9.1% against the projected 8.8% and supported the U.S. dollar. At 19:59 GMT, the Richmond Manufacturing Index for January decreased to 14 against the projected 18 and weighed on the U.S. dollar, which ultimately added more GBP/USD pair gains. At 20:00 GMT, the C.B. Consumer Confidence in January surged to 89.3 against the projected 88.9 and supported the U.S. dollar that capped further bullish momentum in GBP/USD pair.

From the Britain side, at 12:00 GMT, the Average Earnings Index for the quarter raised to 3.6% against the estimated 2.9% and supported the British pound that pushed the pair GBP/USD even higher on board. For December, the Claimant Count Change declined to 7.0K against the forecasted 47.5K and supported Sterling, which ultimately added more GBP/USD pair gains. In December, the Unemployment Rate from Britain also dropped to 5.0%against the forecasted 5.1% and supported British Pound that lifted the bullish sentiment in GBP/USD pair. AT 16:00 GMT, the CBI Realized Sales in January dropped to -50 against the estimated -32 and weighed on British Pound and capped further upside in GBP/USD pair on Tuesday.

Another reason that could also be attributed to the rising prices of GBP/USD pair on Tuesday was UK PM Boris Johnson’s latest announcement about new travel instructions. The incoming passengers in the U.K. will need to self-fund a quarantine for ten days in a hotel. The new policy was a part of a government strategy to prevent foreign strains of the virus from entering the U.K. This also helped British Pound gain strength and support the GBP/USD pair’s upward momentum on Tuesday.


Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3641     1.3717

1.3607     1.3759

1.3565     1.3794

Pivot Point: 1.3683

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair continues trading with a bullish bias at 1.3733 level after violating the symmetric triangle pattern. The GBP/USD pair is trading with a bullish bias on the two-hourly timeframes, facing immediate resistance at 1.3749 area. A bullish breakout of this level is expected to trigger further buying trends until the 1.3807 mark. Today, we can expect to enter a buy position over 1.3749 and selling below the same. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 103.617 after placing a high of 103.826 and a low of 103.553. After rising for two consecutive sessions, the USD/JPY pair dropped on Tuesday despite the market’s rising risk-on market sentiment. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the greenback against the basket of six major currencies, was up on Tuesday by 0.2% at 90.547 level and supported the U.S. dollar. The safe-haven greenback gained in early trading hours of the day as the rising tensions between the U.S. and China over the South China Sea prompted the risk-off mood. 

On Tuesday, China said that it would conduct military exercises in the South China Sea later this week. This announcement came in just days after they had complained that a U.S. aircraft carrier group has sailed through the disputed waters. This helped the Japanese Yen gain traction due to its safe-haven nature and weighed on the USD/JPY pair. 

The US-China relation also came under headlines after Chinese President Xi Jinping warned against the new cold war. On Monday, Xi warned global leaders against starting a “new Cold War” and urged unity in the face of the coronavirus pandemic. He said that building small cliques or starting a new Cold War to reject, threaten or intimidate others will only push the world into division.

The words appeared to be aimed at U.S. President Joe Biden’s plans to revitalize global alliances to counter China’s growing influence. These comments added to the tensions between China and the U.S. and raised the need for safe-haven that ultimately supported the safe-haven Japanese Yen and dragged the pair USD/JPY on the downside. However, the market’s risk sentiment came back during early European trading hours after positive news from vaccine makers came into the market. Moderna and Pfizer announced that they have started working on the booster shots of vaccines that will provide full immunity even against the new variants of the coronavirus like the one that emerged in South Africa. Meanwhile, the Johnson & Johnson CFO also announced that they would release their vaccine data next week, and they were very optimistic that it will be robust data. J&J has claimed that their vaccine will provide full immunity in a single shot, and if the data suggested so, it would be a game-changer in the vaccine race so far.

The rising risk sentiment in the market could not lift the USD/JPY pair, and the pair continued moving in the bearish trend for the day.

On the data front, at 19:00 GMT, the Housing Price Index from the U.S. for November advanced to 1.0% against the anticipated 0.9% and supported the U.S. dollar that capped further losses in the USD/JPY pair. The S&P/CS Composite -20 HPI for the year also advanced to 9.1% against the anticipated 8.8% and supported the U.S. dollar. At 19:59 GMT, the Richmond Manufacturing Index for January fell to 14 against the anticipated 18 and weighed on the U.S. dollar, adding more losses in the USD/JPY pair. At 20:00 GMT, the C.B. Consumer Confidence in January advanced to 89.3 against the anticipated 88.9 and supported U.S. dollar.

From the Japanese side, at 04:50 GMT, the SPPI for the year in December came in as -0.4% against the predicted -0.6% and supported Japanese Yen that added further downside momentum in the USD/JPY pair. At 10:00 GMT, the BOJ Core CPI for the year dropped to -0.3% against the expected -0.1% and weighed on the Japanese Yen.

Furthermore, the losses in USD/JPY were also capped after the announcement from the U.S. President Joe Biden on Tuesday. He said that the U.S. would accelerate the delivery of coronavirus vaccines across the country as his administration plans to buy 200 million more doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines. However, Biden also warned that even with more Americans set to be inoculated sooner than previously anticipated due to additional doses, the pandemic would continue to worsen before it gets better. 

According to the Johns Hopkins University data, the number of confirmed coronavirus cases worldwide has passed 100 million just over a year since the first cases of the mysterious new illness was reported in the Chinese city of Wuhan. This weighed on market sentiment and supported the safe-haven Japanese Yen that ultimately added the USD/JPY pair’s losses on Tuesday.


Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

103.62     103.89

103.50     104.06

103.34     104.17

Pivot point: 103.78

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Wednesday, the USD/JPY continues to trade sideways inside a broad trading range of 103.900 – 103.560. The USD/JPY has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern on the 4-hour timeframe, and it has the chance of leading the pair towards the next resistance level of 104.800 upon the breakout of 104.810. The 50 periods EMA supports the bullish trend, and we may have odds of taking a buying trade over the 103.570 level today. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

AUD/USD Three White Soldiers – Downward Channel Set to Break! 

The AUD/USD closed at 0.77128 after placing a high of 0.77471 and a low of 0.76824. AUD/USD pair remained flat throughout the day as it ended its day at the same level it started its day with on Monday. The AUD/USD pair advanced higher during the European trading hours but reversed its gains in the second half of the day on the back of US dollar strength and the risk-off market sentiment. The risk perceived Aussie suffered when the rising global number of deaths and coronavirus cases raised fears for global economic recovery and surged the appeal for a safe-haven.

As the banks were closed due to Australia Day Holiday on Monday, the currency pair AUD/USD left with the US dollar market valuation. The US Dollar Index (DXY) climbed to 90.51 on Monday however struggled to remain there and preserve its bullish momentum. The rising greenback prices added weight to the AUD/USD pair, and the pair started to lose its early daily gains. The US dollar was also strong on board as the rival currencies, including Euro and British Pound, were weak on the day. As well, the prospects of the massive stimulus of $1.9 trillion in coronavirus relief fund were also fading in the market over the speculation of bill facing rejection at Senate. Senate has already passed a bill of 900 billion US dollars in the previous month, and there is very little possibility that they would agree to pass trillions of dollars in spending after a short passage of time.

These hopes also kept the US dollar stronger and continued weighing on the AUD/USD pair on Monday. Meanwhile, the risk-off market sentiment also kept the pair under pressure on the day. The rising number of coronavirus cases and death rate across the globe due to new variants of COVID-19 raised fears of nationwide lockdown in many countries that ultimately raised the question of global economic recovery and supported the risk-off market sentiment.

The risk-sensitive Aussie suffered in risk-off market sentiment and started to decline that ultimately dragged the pair AUD/USD further on the downside, and the pair closed its day on the same level it started its day with, giving flat movement for the day. On the data front, at 19:00 GMT, CB Leading Index from China raised in December to 1.2% against the previous 1.1% and supported the China-proxy Australian dollar, and capped further downside in AUD/USD pair.



Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

0.7706 0.7723

0.7698 0.7732

0.7688 0.7741

Pivot Point: 0.7715

The AUD/USD is trading at 0.7733 level, having formed three white soldiers on the two-hourly timeframe. On the higher side, the pair may find an immediate resistance at the 0.7745 level. Continuation of an upward trend can extend buying trend until 0.7745 level. A bullish breakout of 0.7745 level is also expected to trigger further buying until the next target level of 0.7776 level. The MACD is exhibiting a bullish crossover on the two-hourly timeframes, and the downward channel seems to get violated. I will be looking to take a sell trade if the Aussie manages to stay below the 0.7745 level. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 26 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – C.B. Consumer Confidence Ahead! 

Investor’s eyes will stay on the Claimant Count Change and Unemployment Rate data from the U.K. as it’s likely to drive market movements during the European session. Later on, the C.B. Consumer Confidence from the U.S. will focus on the New York session today.

Investor’s eyes will stay on the Claimant Count Change and Unemployment Rate data from the U.K. as it’s likely to drive market movements during the European session. Later on, the C.B. Consumer Confidence from the U.S. will focus on the New York session today.

Investor’s eyes will stay on the Claimant Count Change and Unemployment Rate data from the U.K. as it’s likely to drive market movements during the European session. Later on, the C.B. Consumer Confidence from the U.S. will focus on the New York session today.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

  

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD closed at 1.21415 after placing a high of 1.21831 and a low of 1.21158. After rising for two consecutive sessions, the EUR/USD pair dropped on Monday as the common currency remained under pressure due to the slow pace of coronavirus vaccination roll out in Europe. The slow distribution of vaccines and the new manufacturing issues lagged the COVID-19 vaccination rollout in the old continent. After Pfizer told the E.U. that retooling in its Belgian plant would cause a delay, AstraZeneca made a similar announcement on Friday. The bloc has a substantial deal with the British pharmaceutical, and the European regulator was set to approve it on Friday.

Apart from the vaccine delays, the fears of new coronavirus variants were also of concern and could trigger another nationwide lockdown in France, the Eurozone’s second-largest economy. Berlin has also announced to extend its restrictions through mid-February. On the other hand, the safe-haven U.S. dollar was on the back foot across the board due to U.S. President Joe Biden pushing his $1.9 trillion relief program. Simultaneously, moderate Senators were pushing back against approving new expenditure only a month after they approved $900 billion of funds. However, Democrats were set to ram through the package via a reconciliation that would relieve them of the need to receive Republicans’ support.

Another option is to quickly approve the coronavirus-related funds and delaying the other aspects of the suggested package, such as a hike to the minimum wage. These options also kept the prospects of package delivery in the act and kept weighing on the U.S. dollar that ultimately capped further downside in the EUR/USD pair. On the data front, at 14:00 GMT, the German IFO Business Climate dropped to 90.1 against the forecasted 91.5 and weighed on Euro. At 19:00 GMT, the Belgian NBB Business Climate dropped to -7.5 against the expected -8.0 and supported Euro.

It seems like the German Business Climate went down because of the issues mentioned above, as the lockdown restrictions have badly disturbed the business community and weighed on the common currency that dragged the EUR/USD prices on the downside. Meanwhile, equity markets have posted healthy gains over the last few weeks on bets coronavirus vaccines will start to reduce infection rates worldwide and on a stronger U.S. economic recovery under President Joe Biden. 

However, the vaccine rollout has been uneven, with relatively rapid progress in the U.K. but a much slower rollout in France. AstraZeneca warned of further delays to deliveries of its vaccines in Europe on Friday due to production blockage at one of its manufacturing partners. Over the weekend, Italy threatened legal action against both Astra and Pfizer over delivery delays. On Sunday, France has announced to impose a third lockdown that was already under a national 12-hour curfew. All these developments turned the European futures red and weighed on risk sentiment that ultimately dragged the EUR/USD pair on the downside.

On Monday, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that Climate Change could create short-term volatility in output and inflation through extreme weather events and, if left unaddressed, can have long-lasting effects on growth and inflation. ECB announced on Monday that it was creating a team of around 10 ECB employees, reporting directly to Lagarde to set the central bank’s agenda on climate-related topics.

On Monday, the ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said that the European Central bank primarily focused on bank credit conditions ad bond yields when assessing if financing conditions were favorable. He added that naturally, the focus on credit conditions in the banking system on one side and the bond market on the other side was consistent with the main methods used by central banks in steering financial conditions. On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve will meet for its first monetary policy meeting, and the decision of the meeting will be handed down on the next day. EUR/USD pair traders will keep an eye on Fed’s decision for future impetus.


Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.2163       1.2173

1.2158       1.2178

1.2153       1.2183

Pivot Point: 1.2168

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD pair’s technical side has turned bearish as it trades below the support level of 1.2133 level. Formation of the bearish engulfing candle on the hourly timeframe can extend selling bias until the support level of 1.2115 area. Whereas, further selling trend can lead the EUR/USD pair towards the support level of 1.2090 mark. Selling bias seems to dominate the EUR/USD pair today.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD closed at 1.36757 after placing a high of 1.37232 and a low of 1.36485. The GBP/USD pair struggled to advance on Monday amid the concerns over the coronavirus pandemic that worsened and raised the safe-haven appeal. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reviewed data that suggested the U.K. coronavirus variant actually may be deadlier than other variants. A British report found that the variant was associated with a higher death rate than other variants. But the United Kingdom’s chief scientist Patrick Vallance has stressed to reporters that the evidence was not yet strong. 

Previous research has shown that the variant was more contagious than the previous form of coronavirus. But scientists did not believe it was more deadly as it began spreading in the U.K. last fall. Several separate analysis from British researchers found that the patients infected with the variant have a higher risk of severe disease and death. However, U.K. scientists insisted that these researches have several limitations and that more research was needed to confirm these findings.

These reports raised concerns for economic recovery as the threats of new variants could mean new and stricter restrictions throughout the globe. That raised the risk-off market sentiment that ultimately weighed on the risk perceived GBP/USD pair on Monday.

The British Pound advanced last week against its major rival currencies due to a combination of higher market sentiment and hopes for Britain ramping up its coronavirus vaccination scheme. However, the coronavirus pandemic continued to weigh heavily on the British Pound outlook due to the new variant and its association with the mortality rate. As a result, the U.K. government indicated that the current lockdown could last for quite some time as infection rates remain high in the country. These coronavirus fears continued weighing on the British Pound on Monday and dragged the GBP/USD pair on the downside in the absence of any macroeconomic data from both sides.

On the U.S. side, the safe-haven U.S. dollar was strong on Monday as investors were hesitant to sell it as global coronavirus pandemic fears boosted the appetite for safer assets. The greenback’s strength also weighed on GBP/USD pair and extended its losses on the day. However, the GBP/USD pair’s losses started to reverse in the late session on Monday, and the currency pair ended its day with zero loss or gained as it was closed at the same level it began its day with. The reversal in GBP/USD pair in late trading hours came in due to some good news from the U.K. side. 

The U.K. saw a sustained weakness in the infections and the death toll on Monday as the country reported the lowest cases since mid-December on that day. The British Health Secretary Matt Hancock praised the latest measures to flash early positive signs while conveying heavy vaccination and lockdown success. However, the overall sentiment remained depressing as the delayed U.S. coronavirus aid package and AstraZeneca and Pfizer vaccine delivery raised fears for global economic recovery.


Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3677       1.3694

1.3668       1.3700

1.3661       1.3710

Pivot Point: 1.3684

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD pair continues trading with a bullish bias after violating the narrow trading range of 1.3680 – 1.3670. On the upper side, the GBP/USD may face resistance at 1.3736 level now, as the pair may form a triple top pattern here. At the same time, the support continues to hold around 1.3697 level. On the 2 hour timeframe, the GBP/USD has formed a symmetric triangle pattern, which is likely to provide resistance at 1.3701 along with support at 1.3613 level. Today, we can expect a choppy session in the Cable pair.   

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY closed at 103.756 after placing a high of 103.934 and a low of 103.670. USD/JPY pair extended its gains on Monday however remained depressive due to the risk-off market sentiment.

The demand for the greenback of risk-aversion pushed the USD/JPY pair to a daily high near 104 level. However, the U.S. treasury yields came under pressure with the yield on benchmark 10-year note down to 1.03% weighed by the news that U.S. President Biden’s stimulus plan faces opposition from Republican and Democrat lawmakers.

The $1.9 trillion stimulus package proposed by Biden is expected to get pass by the House of Representatives that is led by Democrats backing Biden. Still, the bill could face rejection at Senate as many senators were reluctant to pass another massive amount for spending just after a month of releasing $900 billion. However, Democrats were set to push through the package via a settlement that would relieve them of the need to receive Republicans’ support. Another option is to rapidly support the coronavirus-related funds and postpone the other suggested package features, such as a hike to the minimum wage.

Furthermore, the Federal Reserve monthly rate decision followed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s news conference is set to deliver later this week. Rates are projected to remain flat at a near-zero level that has stood there for almost a year now due to the coronavirus pandemic crisis. However, Powell’s words will be inspected for even the smallest signal of when recovery is likely expected, and as well as a narrowing of stimulus measures.

Over the past fortnight, Powell has claimed that tapering of stimulus measures will not happen anytime soon. Still, bond traders have completely ignored him and continued pushing yields higher in the hope of proving the Fed chief wrong that ultimately supported the U.S. dollar and raised the USD/JPY pair on Monday. 


Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

103.77       103.82

103.74       103.86

103.71       103.88

Pivot Point: 103.80

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The safe-haven pair USD/JPY continues to trade sideways inside a broad trading range of 104.340 – 103.560. The USD/JPY has formed a sideways channel on the 4-hour timeframe, and it has the chance of leading the pair towards the next resistance level of 104.800 upon the breakout of 104.810. The 50 periods EMA supports the bullish trend, and we may have odds of taking a buying trade over the 103.570 level today. Good luck! 

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Jan 26 – Blood on the Streets: Crypto Market in the Red

The crypto sector ended up almost completely in the red as most cryptocurrencies pulled back to lower levels. Bitcoin is currently trading for $31,575, representing a decrease of 5.26% compared to yesterday’s value. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has decreased by 7.24% on the day, while LTC lost 6.79% of its value.

The crypto sector ended up almost completely in the red as most cryptocurrencies pulled back to lower levels. Bitcoin is currently trading for $31,575, representing a decrease of 5.26% compared to yesterday’s value. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has decreased by 7.24% on the day, while LTC lost 6.79% of its value.

The crypto sector ended up almost completely in the red as most cryptocurrencies pulled back to lower levels. Bitcoin is currently trading for $31,575, representing a decrease of 5.26% compared to yesterday’s value. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has decreased by 7.24% on the day, while LTC lost 6.79% of its value.

Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

EveryCoin gained 501.69% in the past 24 hours, making it the most prominent daily crypto gainer by far. It is followed by BBYS’s 280.04% and X Infinity’s 255.24% gain. On the other hand, ARTH lost 61.58%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by Typhoon Cash’s loss of 44.07% and Aventus’s loss of 40.31%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s market dominance increased slightly from when we last reported, with its value currently being 62.9%. This represents a 0.2% increase from our previous report.

Weekly Crypto Market Cap Chart

The cryptocurrency sector’s market capitalization has decreased greatly since we last reported, with its current value being $936.54 billion. This represents a $54.92billion decrease when compared to our previous report.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

_______________________________________________________________________

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s gains in the past two days were taken away when bears took over the market after BTC failed to break the $34,627 mark. The cryptocurrency declined to the $32,350 level but quickly lost hold of it as well. BTC is currently hovering right above the $31,000 mark.

Bitcoin’s 1-hour RSI is getting dangerously close to the oversold territory, while its volume is descending, indicating a possible price stagnation or a direction reversal.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart

Bitcoin’s daily overview is completely neutral, while its weekly and monthly overviews are completely bullish. On the other hand, the 4-hour time-frame is completely bearish.

BTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (1-hour Chart):

  • Price is below its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
  • Price is close to its bottom Bollinger band
  • RSI is near the oversold area (31.21)
  • Volume is average

Key levels to the upside:          Key levels to the downside:

1: $32,350                             1: $30,072

2: $34,627                             2: $30,000

3: $37,445                             3: $27,960

Ethereum

The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap spent the day retracing after posting a new all-time high at $1,477.30. ETH tested many levels but ultimately fell below the previous all-time high, and then the $1,420 and $1,350 levels as well. It is currently consolidating just above $1,300.

Ethereum seemingly created a zone of support just above the $1,300 level, which is holding up for 10 hours now. If this support holds long enough for BTC to change its price direction (or at least enter a sideways trading period), we may see ETH bulls reentering the market once again.

ETH/USD 1-hour Chart

Ethereum’s technicals on all time-frames are slightly tilted towards the buy-side, with its oscillators taking a more neutral stance.

ETH/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical Factors (1-hour Chart):

  • Price is below both its 50-period and its 21-period EMA
  • Price near its bottom Bollinger band
  • RSI is very close to being oversold (39.73)
  • Volume is average

Key levels to the upside:          Key levels to the downside:

1: $1,350                               1: $1,211

2: $1,420                               2: $1,183.85

3: $1,440                               3: $1047.6

Litecoin

Litecoin has lost all of the gains it made yesterday, and then some. The eighth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap failed to pass the zone just under $150, which triggered a pullback and a dip below the $142.1 support (now resistance) level. On top of that, LTC also fell below the trading range it was in for the previous four days (excluding yesterday’s push).

LTC/USD 1-hour Chart

Litecoin’s short-term and long-term overviews have opposing stances: while its 4-hour and overviews show a slight tilt towards the sell-side, its weekly and monthly overviews are slightly bullish.

LTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (1-hour Chart):

  • Its price is below its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
  • Price slightly above its bottom Bollinger band
  • RSI is close to being in the oversold territory (33.05)
  • Volume is average

Key levels to the upside:          Key levels to the downside:

1: $142.1                               1: $128.42

2: $161.5                               2: $120

3: $181.3                               3: $114.75

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 25 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – ECB President Lagarde in Limelight! 

On the news front, eyes will remain on the ECB President Lagarde Speaks and German Ifo Business Climate figures from the Eurozone. President Lagarde is due to participate in a virtual panel discussion titled “Restoring Economic Growth” at Davos 2021.

On the news front, eyes will remain on the ECB President Lagarde Speaks and German Ifo Business Climate figures from the Eurozone. President Lagarde is due to participate in a virtual panel discussion titled “Restoring Economic Growth” at Davos 2021.

On the news front, eyes will remain on the ECB President Lagarde Speaks and German Ifo Business Climate figures from the Eurozone. President Lagarde is due to participate in a virtual panel discussion titled “Restoring Economic Growth” at Davos 2021.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

  


 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

 EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.21707 after placing a high of 1.21893 and a low of 1.21513. The EUR/USD tried to break above the strong resistance level of 1.2200 on Friday but failed as the U.S. dollar strength and the worsened pandemic situation around the bloc added pressure on the single currency Euro.

The U.S. dollar was strong across the board as investors were worried about the chances that President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus proposal failed to gain traction. Hopes have raised that the package’s final deal could be smaller or just be dragged, and this supported the local currency U.S. dollar, which ultimately capped further upside in the EUR.USD pair on Friday.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar was also strong due to better than expected macroeconomic data release on Friday. At 19:45 GMT, the Flash Manufacturing PMI rose to 59.1 against the forecasted 56.6 and supported the U.S. dollar, and capped further gains in EUR/USD pair. The Flash Services PMI also rose to 57.5 against the forecasted 53.3 and supported the U.S. dollar. At 20:00 GMT, the Existing Home Sales also rose to 6.76M against the forecasted 6.55M and supported the U.S. dollar, and limited the upward momentum in EUR/USD pair. From the European side, at 13:15 GMT, the French Flash Services PMI dropped to 46.5 against the predicted 48.3 and weighed on Euro. The French Flash Manufacturing PMI raised to 51.5 against the expected 50.6 and supported Euro that added further gains in EUR/USD pair. At 13:30 GMT, the German Flash Manufacturing PMI remained flat at 57.0. The German Flash Services PMI raised to 46.8 against the forecasted 45.1 and supported Euro that ultimately provided additional gains to EUR/USD pair. At 14:00 GMT, the Flash Manufacturing PMI remained flat with the expectations of 54.7. The Flash Services PMI raised to 45.0 against the projected 44.4 and supported Euro and pushed the EUR/USD pair higher. 

Meanwhile, the EUR/USD pair hit its highest in the week on Friday, but the day’s gains were small as the European leaders showed frustration about the slow vaccination pace. The new mutants of coronavirus raised fresh concerns in the European Union as the governments considered imposing stricter border controls and banning non-essential travel.

The European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde warned that the pandemic still poses severe risks to the Eurozone economy as concerns grow about new variants and sluggish vaccination campaigns. While many countries were struggling to reduce the number of infections, the emergence of more contagious virus variants first discovered in the U.K. and South Africa has added to nervousness. 

However, one factor that helped the common currency in this depressing environment to stay strong onboard was European Central Bank’s latest decision. ECB said that risks remain tilted to the downside, but they were less pronounced. The President of ECB also emphasized the need for more monetary support while the policy remained unchanged. 


Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.2127       1.2190

1.2086       1.2214

1.2063       1.2254

Pivot point: 1.2150

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD continues trading bullish at 1.2173 level and holding right above the 1.2158 support mark. Over this level, the EUR/USD has chances of bullish trend continuation until 1.2220 level. The pair has recently closed candles over 1.2158, and the continuation of the upward trend seems very likely as the 50 periods EMA supports the pair. On the higher side, the EUR/USD may find a target around 1.2220 level.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.36816 after a high of 1.37358 and a low of 1.36354. After rising for three consecutive days, the GBP/USD pair dropped on Friday as the coronavirus pandemic hit the country hard and raised concerns for economic recovery as the lockdown restrictions extended. 

The GBP/USD pair also fell on Friday amid the broad-based strength of the greenback triggered by the rising U.S. Treasury yields and the stronger than expected macroeconomic data. The U.S. dollar was also strong as the market’s investors shifted their focus from Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion massive stimulus package and rather ignored its prospects.

The GBP/USD pair saw selling pressure on Friday as the death toll around the country rose to an alarming level amid the coronavirus’s new variant. According to a rolling analysis by Oxford University, until Thursday, the U.K. had the highest per capita daily death toll of any other country globally, around twice that of the United States.

Given this state, the British government extended the nationwide lockdown till July 17 and also decided to quarantine travelers from high-risk coronavirus countries for at least 10-days as it failed to curb the rising number of coronavirus variant infections. Meanwhile, Britain’s hospitals were also struggling under an ever-growing flow of patients. In the extended lockdown situation, the economic concerns raised rapidly and weighed on the Sterling that ultimately dragged the currency pair GBP/USD on the downside.

Furthermore, on Friday, a U.K. report was released that stated a realistic possibility that the new U.K. variant had a higher mortality rate than other variants. While the data was not decisive but UK PM Boris Johnson said that there was some evidence that the new variant may be connected with a higher degree of mortality. This news added concerns about economic recovery and weighed on the British Pound that added GBP/SD pair losses.

On the data front, at 19:45 GMT, the Flash Manufacturing PMI advanced to 59.1 against the projected 56.6 and supported the U.S. dollar that dragged the GBP/USD pair even on the downside. The Flash Services PMI also advanced to 57.5 against the projected 53.3 and supported the U.S. dollar. At 20:00 GMT, the Existing Home Sales also advanced to 6.76M against the projected 6.55M and supported the U.S. dollar and added GBP/USD pair losses.

From Britain’s side, at 05:01 GMT, the GfK Consumer Confidence for January dropped to -28 against the expected -30 and supported British Pound that capped further downward momentum in GBP/USD pair. At 14:30 GMT, the Flash Manufacturing PMI for January dropped to 52.9 against the forecasted 53.5 and weighed on the British Pound, ultimately pushing the pair GBP/USD lower. The Flash Manufacturing PMI also dropped to 38.8 against the expected 45.2 and weighed on British Pound and added GBP/USD pair losses.


Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3676      1.3763

1.3624      1.3798

1.3589      1.3850

Pivot Point: 1.3711

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD pair continues trading with a bullish bias after violating the narrow trading range of 1.3680 – 1.3670. On the higher side, the GBP/USD may find resistance at 1.3736 level now, as the pair may form a triple top pattern here. At the same time, the support continues to hold around 1.3697 level. Bullish bias dominates. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY closed at 103.769 after placing a high of 103.884 and a low of 103.446. After falling for two consecutive sessions, the USD/JPY pair rose on Friday amid the broad-based U.S. dollar strength; however, the sentiment remained depressing as the pandemic raised concerns for the economic recovery. The U.S. Dollar Index that measures the value of the greenback against the basket of six currencies was up by 0.1% on Friday to 90.243 level and supported the U.S. dollar that ultimately added gains in the currency pair USD/JPY.

The U.S. dollar was also high onboard on Friday as the U.S. Treasury yields also rose on the day amid the idea of greater borrowing to fund the additional stimulus proposed by Joe Biden for %1.9 trillion as it could raise the inflation and change the Federal Reserve’s ultra-loose monetary stance. This supported the risk-on market sentiment that ultimately supported the USD/JPY pair as traders were prepared to buy riskier currencies on the idea of quicker than previously expected global economic recovery after the additional stimulus to the economy.

However, these hopes deteriorated after the new variants of coronavirus from the U.K. and South Africa raised global economic concerns in the market. According to a report released on Friday from the U.K., there was a convincing possibility that the new variant of coronavirus in Britain had a higher death rate than other variants. While the data was not conclusive, but UK PM Boris Johnson said that there was some evidence that the new variant may be related to a higher degree of mortality.

This prompted U.S. President Joe Biden to reinstate a ban on most non-US citizens entering the country from Brazil and the U.K., where more transmissible variants of the coronavirus have emerged recently months. According to public health officials, the U.S. also added South Africa to the restricted list as the concerning variant has already spread beyond South Africa. Arrivals from Ireland and 26 countries in Europe were also banned to protect the people of the U.S. as it has already faced the pandemic on an extreme level.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said that these measures were taken to protect Americans and reduce the risks of these variants spreading and worsening the current pandemic that already affected about 25 million Americans. These developments raised the global economic recovery concerns and added in the risk-off market sentiment that ultimately capped further upside in the USD/JPY pair.

On the data front, at 19:45 GMT, the Flash Manufacturing PMI increased to 59.1 against the anticipated 56.6 and supported the U.S. dollar that added in the upward momentum of the USD/JPY pair. The Flash Services PMI also increased to 57.5 against the anticipated 53.3 and supported the U.S. dollar. At 20:00 GMT, the Existing Home Sales also increased to 6.76M against the anticipated 6.55M and supported the U.S. dollar that pushed the USD/JPY pair higher.

At 04:30 GMT, National Core CPI for the year from Japan came in as -1.0% against the projected -1.1% and supported Japanese Yen. At 05:30 GMT, the Flash Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.7 against the forecasted 50.1 and weighed on the Japanese Yen, supporting the upward momentum in the USD/JPY pair on Friday.


Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

103.33      103.67

103.16      103.84

102.99      104.01

Pivot point: 103.50

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Monday, the safe-haven pair USD/JPY continues to trade sideways inside a broad trading range of 104.340 – 103.560. The USD/JPY has formed a sideways channel on the 4-hour timeframe, and it has the chance of leading the pair towards the next resistance level of 104.800 upon the breakout of 104.810. The 50 periods EMA supports the bullish trend, and we may have odds of taking a buying trade over the 103.570 level today. Good luck! 

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Jan 25 – Ethereum Reaches a new All-Time High: What’s Next?

The crypto sector ended up mostly in the green as altcoins pushed up (while Bitcoin remained mostly stable). Several cryptocurrencies reached new all-time highs, including Ethereum and Aave. Bitcoin is currently trading for $33,335, representing an increase of 1/59% compared to yesterday’s value. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has increased by 7.93% on the day, while LTC gained 2.12% of its value.

The crypto sector ended up mostly in the green as altcoins pushed up (while Bitcoin remained mostly stable). Several cryptocurrencies reached new all-time highs, including Ethereum and Aave. Bitcoin is currently trading for $33,335, representing an increase of 1/59% compared to yesterday’s value. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has increased by 7.93% on the day, while LTC gained 2.12% of its value.

The crypto sector ended up mostly in the green as altcoins pushed up (while Bitcoin remained mostly stable). Several cryptocurrencies reached new all-time highs, including Ethereum and Aave. Bitcoin is currently trading for $33,335, representing an increase of 1/59% compared to yesterday’s value. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has increased by 7.93% on the day, while LTC gained 2.12% of its value.

Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

Foglory Coin gained 389.19% in the past 24 hours, making it the most prominent daily crypto gainer by far. It is followed by Unifty’s 187.19% and MileVerse’s 160.11% gain. On the other hand, EveryCoin lost 76.45%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by Zloadr’s loss of 62.48% and FUTUREXCRYPTO’s loss of 54.1%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s market dominance dropped further from when we last reported, with its value currently being 62.7%. This represents a 2.1% decrease from our previous report.

Weekly Crypto Market Cap Chart

The cryptocurrency sector’s market capitalization has increased greatly since we last reported, with its current value being $991.66 14.56 billion. This represents a $77.10 billion increase when compared to our previous report.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

_______________________________________________________________________

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

Bitcoin has spent the weekend with its price slowly descending towards the $30,000 mark until a new surge of buyers changed the price direction. BTC has bounced from the $30,900 level and pushed up past the $33,250 level. Its price is currently consolidating in the $33,400 zone.

Bitcoin’s upside is guarded not only by the $34,627 level but the recent high of $33,865. Traders will have to be careful when taking long positions on BTC and will have to devote most of the time checking the order flow to properly gauge the resistance levels.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart

Bitcoin’s 4-hour and weekly overviews are bullish and show some signs of neutrality or bearishness, while its monthly overview is completely bullish. On the other hand, its daily time-frame is pretty neutral.

BTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (1-hour Chart):

  • Price is slightly above its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
  • Price is close to its top Bollinger band
  • RSI is near the overbought area (64.47)
  • Volume is slightly below average

Key levels to the upside:          Key levels to the downside:

1: $34,627                             1: $32,350

2: $37,445                             2: $30,072

3: $38,000                             3: $27,960

Ethereum

The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap “decoupled” from Bitcoin and pushed up, surging to its all-time highs and briefly creating a new one at $1,477.3. Ether is currently fighting to stay above $140 and enter the price discovery mode yet again.

Ethereum has quite a lot of support levels right beneath its current price, most notably the $1,440, $1,420, and $1,350 levels. Its upside levels past the all-time high will, however, have to be determined by drawing Fib retracement levels.

ETH/USD 1-hour Chart

Ethereum’s technicals on the 4-hour, daily, and weekly time-frames are bullish and show some signs of neutrality or bearishness, while its monthly overview is completely bullish.

ETH/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical Factors (1-hour Chart):

  • Price is above both its 50-period and its 21-period EMA
  • Price near its top Bollinger band
  • RSI is very close to being overbought (68.27)
  • Volume is above average

Key levels to the upside:          Key levels to the downside:

1: $1,440                               1: $1,420

2: $1,477.3                            2: $1,350

3: $1,500                               3: $1,211

Litecoin

Litecoin’s weekend went without much price fluctuation, with LTC moving between $133 and $143.5. However, LTC bulls managed to push past the $142.1 level and bring its price to $145, where it is now consolidating. Litecoin’s volume also surged during the price increase.

Litecoin traders will have to pay attention to several factors, including LTC technicals, Bitcoin price movement as well as Ethereum price movement.

LTC/USD 1-hour Chart

Litecoin’s overviews on all time-frames are bullish, with its 4-hour, daily, and weekly time-frames having some signs of neutrality, while its monthly overview is completely bullish.

LTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (1-hour Chart):

  • Its price is slightly above its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
  • Price slightly above its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (63.36)
  • Volume is slightly above average

Key levels to the upside:          Key levels to the downside:

1: $161.5                               1: $142.1

2: $181.3                               2: $128.42

3: $186.3                               3: $120

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 22 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Manufacturing & Services PMI Ahead!  

On the news front, eyes will remain on the Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI figures from the Eurozone, U.K., and the United States. Almost all of the economic figures are expected to perform poorly than in previous months. Price action will depend upon any surprise changes in the PMI figures.

On the news front, eyes will remain on the Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI figures from the Eurozone, U.K., and the United States. Almost all of the economic figures are expected to perform poorly than in previous months. Price action will depend upon any surprise changes in the PMI figures.

On the news front, eyes will remain on the Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI figures from the Eurozone, U.K., and the United States. Almost all of the economic figures are expected to perform poorly than in previous months. Price action will depend upon any surprise changes in the PMI figures.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

  

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

UR/USD pair was closed at 1.21671 after placing a high of 1.21728 and a low of 1.21022. Despite the rising fears of the Eurozone falling into recession due to the damage caused by pandemic across the bloc, as warned by the European Central Bank President Christin Lagarde, the Euro rose against the U.S. dollar to a one-week high.

On Thursday, the European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said that the coronavirus pandemic was still posing serious risks to the eurozone economy as lockdowns were tightened across the region. She added that the start of vaccination campaigns across the euro area was an important milestone in resolving the ongoing health crisis. Nonetheless, the pandemic continued to pose serious risks to public health and the euro area and the global economies.

In many of the European nations, the New Year began with stricter social restrictions and national lockdowns. This week, Germany extended a national lockdown until February 14, and the Netherlands announced that there would be a curfew starting from next week. France also chose to intensify its curfew hours earlier this month, while Portugal decided to close schools from Friday.

According to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Europe has reported more than 16 million coronavirus infections, with more than 400,000 deaths so far. Lagarde said that it was ready to update its policies whenever necessary amid the economic uncertainty. She added that ECB’s main policy target was to achieve an inflation rate close to 2%. 

Meanwhile, at its policy meeting on Thursday, ECB kept its interest rates and its huge stimulus program unchanged. The main refinancing operations remained flat at 0.00%, the marginal lending facility at 0.25%, and the deposit facility at -0.50%. The Governing Council has also decided to continue the purchases under the pandemic emergency purchase program (PEPP) with a total of 1850 billion euros until at least the end of March 2022.

In December, the bank estimated a GDP rate of 3.9% for 2021 and 2.1% for 2022. However, according to ECB, there were doubts over how the euro area will cope this year after a 7.3% GDP drop last year. ECB also signaled it might not need the full extent of its emergency purchase program to support the recovery. However, chances for an increase in the program were also mentioned to ensure the euro area economy remains well-financed. These comments from Lagarde failed to reverse the upward momentum of the EUR/USD pair on Thursday.

On the data front, at 19:30 GMT, the Consumer Confidence from Europe for January dropped to -16 against the expected -15 and weighed on Euro that capped further upside in EUR/USD pair. From the U.S. side, at 18:30 GMT, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index for January rose to 26.5 against the forecasted 11.2 and supported the U.S. dollar that limited the upward momentum in EUR/USD pair. The Unemployment Claims from last week were decreased to 900K from the forecasted 930K and supported U.S. dollar. 

For December, the Building Permits rose to 1.71M against the forecasted 1.60M and supported the U.S. dollar. From December, the Housing Starts also rose to 1.67M against the forecasted 1.56M and supported the U.S. dollar that also weighed on the rising EUR/USD prices.

Despite strong macroeconomic data from the U.S., the greenback remained on the back foot on Thursday. It declined almost 0.2% against its rival currencies amid the rising hopes for a further stimulus package under Joe Biden’s administration. This weakness of the U.S. dollar also supported the EUR/USD pair’s rising prices on Thursday.

Furthermore, the U.S. recorded the death toll from coronavirus above 400,000, and it was expecting about 500,000 deaths from the pandemic by mid-February. This alarming situation prompted Joe Biden to sign orders to intensify the vaccination program that ultimately added to the market’s risk sentiment and supported the risk perceived EUR/USD pair on Thursday.


Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.2006      1.2091

1.2039      1.2106

1.2058      1.2139

Pivot Point: 1.2062

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is trading with a bullish bias at 1.2128 level. The EUR/USD is holding right below 50 periods EMA on the hourly timeframe, extending the EUR/USD pair’s resistance. On the lower side, the support level continues to hold around 1.2120 and 1.2062 level. The MACD and RSI are suggesting a mixed bias for the EUR/USD pair. Buying can be seen over 1.2115.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.37332 after placing a high of 1.37456 and a low of 1.36469. GBP/USD pair rose to its highest since May 2018 on Thursday amid broad-based U.S. dollar weakness and a rising appetite for risk. The GBP/USD pair rose for 3rd consecutive session on Thursday as the global appetite for risk was raised, with Joe Biden sworn in as 46th President of the United States. Another reason behind the rising GBP/USD prices was the weaker U.S. dollar driven by the rising hopes for a massive stimulus package under Biden’s administration.

The new President is expected to announce a $1.9 trillion stimulus package to help the American economy survive through the ongoing coronavirus pandemic that has cost more than 400,000 American lives. Markets were confident that the stimulus package would boost the global economic situation and, in turn, will also push the risk-sensitive Pound higher.

 Moreover, the British Pound was already strong onboard due to Bank of England’s governor Andrew Bailey who expected a pronounced recovery in Britain’s economy as vaccination against coronavirus is underway. On Thursday, the Bank of England released the credit conditions survey that indicated an increase in the mortgage payment default rates at the beginning of 2021 as the pandemic’s economic impact hit the households. This weighed a little over British Pound and capped further upside in GBP/USD pair on Thursday.


Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3622      1.3717

1.3576      1.3764

1.3528      1.3811

Pivot Point: 1.3670

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD pair continues trading sideways between a narrow trading range of 1.3740 – 1.3703 level. On the lower side, a bearish breakout of 1.3703 level can extend the selling trend until the next support level of 1.3679 level. Conversely, a bullish crossover of 1.3740 can extend buying trend until the 1.3775 level. Let’s keep our eyes on the 1.3700 level today.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 103.489 after placing a high of 103.666 and a low of 103.325. The currency pair USD/JPY remained under consolidation and posted small losses as the U.S. dollar remained weak throughout the day. The main driver of currency pair USD/JPY on Thursday remained the rising hopes for massive stimulus from the new President of the U.S. and the latest growth outlook from the Bank of Japan.

The Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy steady on Thursday, upgraded its economic forecast for the next fiscal year, and warned of escalating risks to the outlook as new coronavirus emergency measures threatened to disrupt a fragile recovery.

Bank of Japan maintained its targets under yield curve control at -0.1% for short-term interest rates and around 0% for 10-year bond yields. The Governor of BOJ Haruhiko Kuroda said that the board had discussed the bank’s review of its policy tools due in March, though he also dropped a few hints on the outcome.

In the fresh quarterly projections, the Bank of Japan upgraded next fiscal year’s growth forecast to a 3.9% expansion from a 3.6% gain seen three months ago based on hopes the government’s huge spending package will soften the blow from the pandemic. This projection raised the Japanese Yen that ultimately weighed on the USD/JPY pair on Thursday.

However, BOJ offered a depressing view on consumption and warned that services spending would remain under strong downward pressure due to the fresh state of emergency measures taken this month. Kuroda said that the risk of Japan sliding back into deflation was not high and signaled the BOJ had offered sufficient stimulus, for now, to ease the blow from COVID-19.

On the data front, at 18:30 GMT, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index for January advanced to 26.5 against the anticipated 11.2 and supported the U.S. dollar. The Unemployment Claims from last week fell to 900K from the anticipated 930K and supported the U.S. dollar that capped further downside in the USD/JPY pair. For December, the Building Permits advanced to 1.71M against the anticipated 1.60M and supported the U.S. dollar. The Housing Starts from December also advanced to 1.67M against the anticipated 1.56M and supported the U.S. dollar and limited USD/JPY pair losses.

From Japan, at 04:50 GMT, the Trade Balance from December dropped to 0.48T against the expected 0.70T and weighed on the Japanese Yen that limited the downfall in the USD/JPY pair on Thursday. Despite the stronger than expected macroeconomic data from the U.S., the greenback fell by 0.2% against the basket of six currencies and weighed on the USD/JPY pair as the hopes for a massive stimulus package from Democratic President Joe Biden increased.

Joe Biden is expected to announce a $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package that will ultimately weigh on the local currency. Furthermore, the rising death cases from coronavirus in the U.S. also weighed on the U.S. dollar as the death toll surpassed 400,000 and raised fears. The weakness of the U.S. dollar dragged the USD/JPY prices on the downside on Thursday.


Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

103.53      104.16

103.31      104.56

102.91      104.78

Pivot Point: 103.94

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Friday, the USD/JPY continues to trade sideways inside a wide trading range of 104.340 – 103.560. The USD/JPY has formed a sideways channel on the 4-hour timeframe, and it has the chance of leading the pair towards the next resistance level of 104.800 upon the breakout of 104.810. The 50 periods EMA supports the bullish trend, and we may have odds of taking a buying trade over the 103.570 level today. Good luck! 

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Jan 22 – Bitcoin Briefly Drops Below $30K; Market Sees Blood on the Streets

The crypto sector ended up almost completely in the red as Bitcoin’s drop below $30,000 (at one point) led the market down. Bitcoin is currently trading for $31,730, representing a decrease of 8.41% compared to yesterday’s value. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has decreased by 11.29% on the day, while LTC lost 4.76% of its value.

The crypto sector ended up almost completely in the red as Bitcoin’s drop below $30,000 (at one point) led the market down. Bitcoin is currently trading for $31,730, representing a decrease of 8.41% compared to yesterday’s value. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has decreased by 11.29% on the day, while LTC lost 4.76% of its value.

The crypto sector ended up almost completely in the red as Bitcoin’s drop below $30,000 (at one point) led the market down. Bitcoin is currently trading for $31,730, representing a decrease of 8.41% compared to yesterday’s value. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has decreased by 11.29% on the day, while LTC lost 4.76% of its value.

Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

EveryCoin gained 734.83% in the past 24 hours, making it the most prominent daily crypto gainer by far. It is followed by Vox.Finance’s 132.94% and DACC’s 129.86% gain. On the other hand, PegsShares lost 99.20%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by Mithril Share’s loss of 75.17% and Chimpion’s loss of 59.53%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s market dominance stayed at the same spot as when we last reported, with its value currently being 64.8%.

Weekly Crypto Market Cap Chart

The cryptocurrency sector’s market capitalization has decreased greatly since we last reported, with its current value being $914.56 billion. This represents a $10.97 billion decrease when compared to our previous report.

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What happened in the past 24 hours?

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_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

Bitcoin has had a horrible day as bears took over the market. Its price dropped to as low as $28,800, but found support in its 50-day EMA. The downturn, however, means that the largest-cryptocurrency by market cap fell out of its triangle formation, most likely spelling a start of a short-term downtrend or sideways trading phase.

Bitcoin is very unpredictable at the moment, but traders could find an opportunity in looking for drastic volume increases and “catch the wave” of buyers or sellers (while taking into account all the support and resistance levels).

BTC/USD 1-hour chart

Bitcoin’s weekly and monthly time-frames are bullish but show some signs of neutrality or bearishness. On the other hand, its 4-hour and daily time-frames are completely bearish.

BTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (1-hour Chart):

  • Price is slightly below its 50-period EMA and at its 21-period EMA
  • Price is at its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral after returning from being oversold (48.04)
  • Volume is above average

Key levels to the upside:          Key levels to the downside:

1: $32,350                             1: $30,072

2: $34,627                             2: $30,000

3: $37,445                             3: $27,960

Ethereum

The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap followed Bitcoin’s direction, but with slightly less intensity. Ether’s price dropped below the $1,211 and $1,183.85 levels and found support in the $1,047.6 level. However, the bounce that came after the bulls came into the market was insufficient to break the $1,183.85 level, and Ethereum’s price is now trading just below it.

The $1,183.85 level could be considered a pivot point, and ETH’s short-term price direction will greatly depend on whether bulls manage to break this resistance.

ETH/USD 1-hour Chart

Ethereum’s technicals are still mostly tilted towards the buy-side, with its longer time-frames (weekly and monthly) being completely bullish, while its daily time frame’s oscillators are pointing to the sell-side. On the other hand, its 4-hour time-frame is completely bearish.

ETH/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical Factors (1-hour Chart):

  • Price is below its 50-period and at its 21-period EMA
  • Price is at its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (45.02)
  • Volume is above average

Key levels to the upside:          Key levels to the downside:

1: $1,183.85                          1: $1047.5

2: $1,211                              2: $960.5

3: $1,350                             3: $932.5

Litecoin

Litecoin’s movement in the past 24 hours much resembled Ethereum, with its price dropping below the $142.1 level and finding support slightly below the $128.4 level. While its push up did not reach the now-resistance level of $142.1, Litcoin did find support in the 21-hour EMA.

Litecoin’s volume increase in recent hours is negligible compared to the increase that Bitcoin and Ethereum saw. This may indicate less intensity in the moves to come, regardless of the price direction.

LTC/USD 1-hour Chart

Litecoin’s weekly and monthly time-frames are completely bullish and but show no signs of neutrality or bearishness. On the other hand, its 4-hour and daily time-frames are completely bearish.

LTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (1-hour Chart):

  • Its price is slightly below its 50-period EMA and slightly above its 21-period EMA
  • Price slightly above its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (51.31)
  • Volume is slightly above average

Key levels to the upside:          Key levels to the downside:

1: $142.1                               1: $128.42

2: $161.5                               2: $120

3: $181.3                               3: $114.75

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 21 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – ECB Policy Ready to Play! 

The market’s news is likely to offer high impact events from the U.S., while the major focus will remain on the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Unemployment Claims. U.S. dollar may exhibit mixed bias until the release of these events as Philly fed manufacturing is expected to perform badly, and the Jobless claims are likely to perform well.

The market’s news is likely to offer high impact events from the U.S., while the major focus will remain on the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Unemployment Claims. U.S. dollar may exhibit mixed bias until the release of these events as Philly fed manufacturing is expected to perform badly, and the Jobless claims are likely to perform well.

The market’s news is likely to offer high impact events from the U.S., while the major focus will remain on the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Unemployment Claims. U.S. dollar may exhibit mixed bias until the release of these events as Philly fed manufacturing is expected to perform badly, and the Jobless claims are likely to perform well.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD continues to trade higher at the 1.2160 level, and a bullish breakout can extend buying trend until the 1.2229 level. The market trading sentiment still represents positive performance on the day as the positive environment around the Asia-Pacific stocks. All-time high upticks in the S&P 500 Futures highlight the risk-on mood, which was being supported by optimism over a potential vaccine/treatment for the highly infectious coronavirus. 

Meanwhile, the increasing hopes over more U.S. stimulus package under Joe Biden’s presidency also played its major role in supporting the market trading sentiment. The hopes of further U.S. stimulus package sparked after the Biden entered the White House, without any losses, which could be considered as one of the major reason behind the latest positive mood in the market,

In response, the broad-based U.S. declined to stop its long bearish bias and remained bearish on the day. The dip in the greenback was further sparked by the optimism over vaccines’ rollout for the highly contagious coronavirus disease, which eroded demand for safe-haven currencies. Therefore, the losses in the U.S. dollar becomes the key factor that kept the currency pair lower. The U.S. Dollar Index that measures the dollar versus a bucket of other currencies dropped by 0.19% to 90.300 by 11:26 PM ET (4:26 AM GMT).

As per the report, the Secretary of the Treasury nominee Janet Yellen urged Congress to “act big” on the Coronavirus relief program and shouldn’t worry about debt through her Senate confirmation hearing. These positive remarks helped the market trading bias to stay bid. 


Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.2006     1.2091

1.2039     1.2106

1.2058     1.2139

Pivot Point: 1.2062

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is trading with a bullish bias at 1.2128 level. The EUR/USD is holding right below 50 periods EMA on the hourly timeframe, extending the EUR/USD pair’s resistance. On the lower side, the support level continues to hold around 1.2120 and 1.2062 level. The MACD and RSI are suggesting a mixed bias for the EUR/USD pair. Buying can be seen over 1.2115.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD continues to hold its bullish tone through the first half of the day as the pair ran into the weekly highs around the 1.3710 mark. It’s mostly due to the weaker U.S. dollar. The trader hopes for further U.S. fiscal incentive immediately intensified after the U.S. Treasury Secretary candidate Janet Yellen urged lawmakers to act high on the COVID-19 relief package and not bother too much regarding debt. The remarks of Yellen were was seen as one of the critical factors that weakened the safe-haven U.S. dollar and added to the GBPUSD gains. 

Besides this, the dollar losses bolstered by the confidence over the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines, which confer some further support to the GBP/USD pair. The U.S. failed to stop its long bearish bias and remained bearish on the day. The losses in the U.S. dollar were further sparked by the optimism over vaccines’ rollout for the highly contagious coronavirus disease, which eroded demand for safe-haven currencies. Therefore, the losses in the U.S. dollar becomes the key factor that kept the currency pair lower. The U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a bucket of other currencies dropped by 0.19% to 90.300 by 11:26 PM ET (4:26 AM GMT).

Conversely, the anxieties regarding increasing COVID-19 cases and economically-painful hard lockdowns in the U.K. keep questioning the pair’s upside impulse. The U.K. coronavirus strain has been discovered in at least 60 countries so far, as per the WHO report. The Kingdom announced 33,355 fresh virus cases and 1,610 deaths on the day. Globally, the number of cases has exceeded 96 million, prompting the pair’s upside momentum. Besides, the reports of likely shortage of vaccine in New York and postponement of Pfizer’s vaccine to Canada also seems to question the Sterling bullish bias.


Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3555     1.3722

1.3445     1.3781

1.3387     1.3890

Pivot Point: 1.3613

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is also heading north amid a weaker dollar, as it trades at a 1.3655 level. Continuation of an upward trend can lead the Cable towards the next target area of 1.3700 level. At the same time, the Cable may find support at 1.3628 level today. On the higher side, the bullish breakout of 1.3701 level can extend buying trend until 1.3736. The GBP/USD is supported by 10 and 20 periods EMA on the two-hourly timeframes, suggesting further buying in the pair. Let’s consider trading bullish over 1.3715 level today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

Today in the early European trading session, the USD/JPY currency pair failed to stop its previous-session selling bias and remained depressed around two-weeks low around below 103.5 level as the U.S. dollar faced some follow-through selling pressure, which, in turn, was seen as one of the key factors that exerting downside pressure on the USD/JPY currency pair. The bearish bias surrounding the U.S. dollar was mainly sponsored by the increasing optimism over the massive U.S. stimulus measures under the newly inaugurated Joe Biden administration, which undermined demand for safe-haven currencies. 

Simultaneously, the prevalent risk-on environment undermined the Japanese yen and helped the currency pair limit deeper losses. Meanwhile, the dovish comments by the BoJ Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, added further burden on the JPY and extended some additional support to the USD/JPY currency pair to halt its bearish rally. Currently, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 103.47 and consolidating in the range between 103.33 – 103.67.

Conversely, the equity market’s positive performance weakened the Japanese yen and helped the currency pair limit its deeper losses. Also capping the currency pair’s losses could be the dovish comments by the BoJ Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, which further weighed on the JPY and extended some support to the USD/JPY pair to stop its bearish rally. As per the latest report, Kuroda repeated that the BoJ observes the coronavirus’s impact very closely and will not hesitate to ease further if needed. The Japanese central bank updated its GDP target for the fiscal year 2020 to -5.6% from the previous projection of -5.5%.

On the different page, the concerns about rising COVID-19 deaths and re-imposing the economically-painful hard lockdowns keep challenging the upbeat market mood, which could change the currency pair’s direction.

Looking forward, the market traders will keep their eyes on updates from the Biden administration. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy and U.S. Unemployment Claims will also be key to watch. In addition to this, the risk catalyst like geopolitics and the virus woes will not lose their importance.


Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

103.53     104.16

103.31     104.56

102.91     104.78

Pivot Point: 103.94

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY continues to trade sideways in between a wide trading range of 104.340 – 103.560. The USD/JPY has formed a sideways channel on the 4-hour timeframe, and it has the chance of leading the pair towards the next resistance level of 104.800 upon the breakout of 104.810. The 50 periods EMA supports the bullish trend, and we may have odds of taking a buying trade over the 103.570 level today. Good luck! 

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Jan 21 – BTC in a Triangle Formation – What do the Analysts Say?

The crypto sector was split between slight gainers and slight losers, but overall lost some value as the market cap dropped below $1 trillion. Bitcoin is currently trading for $34,644, representing a decrease of 2.39% compared to yesterday’s value. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has decreased by 4.12% on the day, while LTC lost 5.41% of its value.

The crypto sector was split between slight gainers and slight losers, but overall lost some value as the market cap dropped below $1 trillion. Bitcoin is currently trading for $34,644, representing a decrease of 2.39% compared to yesterday’s value. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has decreased by 4.12% on the day, while LTC lost 5.41% of its value.

The crypto sector was split between slight gainers and slight losers, but overall lost some value as the market cap dropped below $1 trillion. Bitcoin is currently trading for $34,644, representing a decrease of 2.39% compared to yesterday’s value. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has decreased by 4.12% on the day, while LTC lost 5.41% of its value.

Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

Cocos-BCX gained 107983.76% in the past 24 hours, making it the most prominent daily crypto gainer by far. It is followed by HAPY Coin’s 383.49% and Vox.Finance’s 371.42% gain. On the other hand, PegsShares lost 59.35%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by KIMCHI.finance’s loss of 44.21% and EveryCoin’s loss of 34.88%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s market dominance has moved down slightly since our last report as altcoins started to outperform, with its value currently being 64.8%. This value represents a 0.1% difference to the downside when compared to the previously reported value.

Weekly Crypto Market Cap Chart

The cryptocurrency sector’s market capitalization has decreased slightly since we last reported, with its current value being $955.53 billion. This represents a $69 billion decrease when compared to our previous report.

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What happened in the past 24 hours?

_______________________________________________________________________

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s daily time-frame shows that the cryptocurrency is still contained within the triangle formation, which will be a major determinant in BTC’s future price movement. If we zoom in to the hourly time-frame, we can see that BTC moved down, broke the $34,627, and pushed towards the downside, but got instantly stopped by the triangle formation’s bottom line.

While Bitcoin’s short-term overview seems slightly bearish, many analysts call for a push towards $60,000 before any major pullback. However, judging by the current trading session, BTC has a higher chance of breaking the triangle formation to the downside at the moment.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart

Bitcoin’s weekly and monthly time-frames are completely bullish and show no signs of bearishness. On the other hand, its daily time-frame oscillators point to “sell” while the rest of the overview is still bullish, and its 4-hour time-frame is completely bearish.

BTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (1-hour Chart):

  • Price is slightly below both its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
  • Price is slightly below its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (44.21)
  • Volume is average (low)

Key levels to the upside:          Key levels to the downside:

1: $37,445                             1: $34,627

2: $40,000                             2: $32,350

3: $42,000                             3: $27,960

Ethereum

The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap went into retracement mode after creating a new all-time high of $1,440 two days ago. Ether’s price moved in a straight descending pattern at first but then bounced back up and tried to retest the $1,350 level. As time passed, it was more and more evident that ETH failed to break $1,350 to the upside and that its price is now contained between $1,350 to the upside and $1,211 to the downside.

Ether’s current upside is heavily guarded, not only by the $1,350 level but also by the 21-hour and 50-hour EMAs.

ETH/USD 1-hour Chart

Ethereum’s technicals on all time-frames are bullish, but only its daily time-frame shows no signs of neutrality or bearishness. The rest of the time-frames (4-hour, weekly, and monthly) have their oscillators pointing to a neutral or bearish stance.

ETH/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical Factors (1-hour Chart):

  • Price is slightly below its 50-period and its 21-period EMA
  • Price is slightly below its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (44.30)
  • Volume is average

Key levels to the upside:          Key levels to the downside:

1: $1,350                               1: $1,211

2: $1,420                               2: $1,183.85

3: $1,440                              3: $1047.5

Litecoin

Litecoin spent the day trading on very low volume compared to the previous days, with its price contesting the $142.1 level twice. At the moment, LTC traders can face two scenarios, one being LTC falling below $142.1 level and pushing towards $128.4, and the second one being that LTC acts on the double bottom it created and pushes up to regain some of the lost value.

LTC/USD 1-hour Chart

Litecoin’s technicals are pretty split, with its 4-hour and daily indicators showing almost complete bearish sentiment and its weekly and monthly overviews showing complete bullishness.

LTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (1-hour Chart):

  • Its price is slightly below both its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
  • Price between its middle and bottom Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (41.78)
  • Volume is below average

Key levels to the upside:          Key levels to the downside:

1: $161.5                               1: $142.1

2: $181.3                               2: $128.42

3: $186.3                               3: $114.75

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 20 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Economic Sentiment Under Spotlight!

On the news front, the eyes will remain on the U.K. Monetary Policy reports due during the late European hours. BOE isn’t expected to change the rates, and it may keep them at 0.10%; however, it will be important to see MPC Official Bank Rate Votes. Besides, the European Final CPI data will remain in focus today.

On the news front, the eyes will remain on the U.K. Monetary Policy reports due during the late European hours. BOE isn’t expected to change the rates, and it may keep them at 0.10%; however, it will be important to see MPC Official Bank Rate Votes. Besides, the European Final CPI data will remain in focus today.

On the news front, the eyes will remain on the U.K. Monetary Policy reports due during the late European hours. BOE isn’t expected to change the rates, and it may keep them at 0.10%; however, it will be important to see MPC Official Bank Rate Votes. Besides, the European Final CPI data will remain in focus today.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

Today in the Asian trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair extended its previous-day bullish streak and refreshed daily tops around the 1.2150 regions. However, the prevalent bullish bias around the currency pair was mainly tied to the weaker U.S. dollar. The prevalent upbeat market mood was seen as one of the key factors undermining the safe-haven U.S. dollar. However, the global risk sentiment was being supported by the increasing prospects of massive fiscal spending in the U.S. Across the pond, the buying interest around the currency pair got an additional boost from the better-than-expected German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index. On the bearish side, the escalating concerns over the COVID-19 cases and economically-painful extended lockdown restrictions keep questioning the currency pair’s upside momentum. As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.2153 and consolidating in the range between 1.2124 – 1.2158.

The market trading sentiment managed to extend its previous-day positive performance and remained supportive during the Asian trading session on the day. However, the reason could be tied to the higher prospects of massive fiscal spending in the U.S. As per the latest report, the Secretary of the Treasury nominee Janet Yellen recently pushed Congress to “act big” on COVID- 19 relief and not worry too much about debt during her Senate confirmation hearing before the Senate Finance Committee. These positive comments helped the market trading sentiment to stay bid. The latest upticks in the equity market could also be attributed to the low number of negatives factors from the economic calendar. The prevalent upbeat market mood was seen as one of the key factors that undermining the safe-haven greenback.

Across the pond, the buying interest around the currency pair got an additional boost from the better-than-expected German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index. At the data front, the German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index climbed to 61.8 in January compared to 60.0 expected and 55.0 previous. Meanwhile, the gauge for the broader Eurozone surprisingly improved to 58.3 during the reported month against 45.5 forecasted.

On the bearish side, the concerns about rising COVID-19 cases and economically-painful hard lockdowns keep challenging the pair’s upside momentum. As per the latest report, the death toll from the coronavirus in the U.S. crossed to 401,000, and the number of cases in the country exceeded 24 million as of January 20. In addition to this, the World Health Organization (WHO) said that the U.K. coronavirus strain had been detected in at least 60 countries so far. The Kingdom reported 33,355 new virus cases and 1,610 deaths on the day. Globally, the number of cases has topped 96 million. Also questioning the pair’s upside momentum could be the reports of likely shortage of vaccine in New York and postponement of Pfizer’s vaccine to Canada.


Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.2006     1.2091

1.2039     1.2106

1.2058     1.2139

Pivot Point: 1.2072

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is trading with a bullish bias at 1.2145 level. The pair has recently crossed over 50 periods of EMA on the hourly timeframe, suggesting chances of an upward movement in the market. Continuation of a bullish trend can lead the EUR/USD price towards the 1.2178 level. At the same time, support continues to hold around 1.2150 today. The bullish bias is likely to dominate the market.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

Today in the early European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair maintained its bid tone through the first half of the Asian session and hit the weekly highs around above the mid-1.3600 level amid a softer tone surrounding the U.S. dollar. The market hopes for additional U.S. fiscal stimulus instantly escalated after the U.S. Treasury Secretary nominee Janet Yellen pushed lawmakers to act big on the COVID-19 relief package and not worry too much about debt, which in turn, was seen as one of the key factors that weakened the safe-haven U.S. dollar and contributed to the currency pair gains. Apart from this, the greenback losses were further bolstered by the optimism over the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines, which lend some additional support to the currency pair. Across the ocean, the buying interest around the cable currency pair picked up further pace following the release of hotter-than-expected U.K. consumer inflation figures. 

On the contrary, the concerns about the highly contagious coronavirus disease and the imposition of fresh travel restrictions in the U.K. could cap the GBP/USD currency pair’s upside momentum. At a particular time, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3668 and consolidating in the range between 1.3627 – 1.3675.

The combination of positive factors has helped the GBP/USD currency pair catch sharp, fresh bids on the day. Be its optimism over the rollout of vaccines for the highly infectious coronavirus disease or the rising prospects of massive fiscal spending in the U.S., not the forget upbeat economics data, these all factors positively impact the market trading sentiment. 

Across the ocean, the buying interest around the cable currency pair picked up further pace following the release of hotter-than-expected U.K. consumer inflation figures. The headline CPI increased more-than-expected at the data front and arrived at a 0.6% YoY rate in December. Meanwhile, the core CPI (excluding food and energy items) also exceeded consensus estimations.

Alternatively, the concerns about rising COVID-19 cases and economically-painful hard lockdowns in the U.K. keep challenging the pair’s upside momentum. As per the latest report from World Health Organization (WHO), the U.K. coronavirus strain has been detected in at least 60 countries so far. The Kingdom reported 33,355 new virus cases and 1,610 deaths on the day. Globally, the number of cases has topped 96 million. Also questioning the pair’s upside momentum could be the reports of likely shortage of vaccine in New York and postponement of Pfizer’s vaccine to Canada.


Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3555      1.3722

1.3445      1.3781

1.3387      1.3890

Pivot Point: 1.3613

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is also heading north amid a weaker dollar, as it trades at a 1.3655 level. Continuation of an upward trend can lead the Cable towards the next target area of 1.3700 level. At the same time, the Cable may find support at 1.3628 level today.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

During Wednesday’s early European trading session, the USD/JPY currency pair failed to stop its previous-session bearish bias and came under some renewed selling pressure low around 103.13 level mainly due to the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness. The market hopes for additional U.S. fiscal stimulus increased after the U.S. Treasury Secretary nominee Janet Yellen advised lawmakers to act big on the COVID-19 relief package while stating that the benefits of increased spending are greater than the costs associated with a higher debt burden, which in turn, boosted the market trading sentiment and weakened the safe-haven U.S. dollar. 

Apart from this, the greenback losses were further bolstered by the cautious sentiment ahead of President-elect Joe Biden’s inaugural ceremony on the day. On the different page, the upbeat market sentiment weakened the safe-haven Japanese yen, which, in turn, was seen as one of the leading factors that helped the USD/JPY currency pair to limit its deeper losses. Currently, the USD/CHF currency pair is currently trading at 103.77 and consolidating in the range between 103.72 – 103.94.

The market trading sentiment was representing positive performance on the day as the bullish appearance of Asia-Pacific stocks and upticks of the S&P 500 Futures tend to highlight the risk-on mood supported by optimism over a potential vaccine/treatment for the highly infectious coronavirus. Besides this, the increasing prospects of massive fiscal spending in the U.S. also played its major role in underpinning the market trading sentiment. The market hopes for additional U.S. fiscal stimulus increased further after the U.S. Treasury Secretary nominee Janet Yellen’s confirmation hearing before the Senate Finance Committee on Tuesday. 

As in result, the broad-based U.S. failed to gain any bid and remained pessimistic on the day. Apart from this, the losses in the U.S. dollar were further sparked by the optimism over the rollout of vaccines for the highly contagious coronavirus disease. In addition to this, the cautious sentiment ahead of President-elect Joe Biden’s inaugural ceremony also exerted downside pressure on the greenback. Hence, the losses in the U.S. dollar becomes the key factor that kept the currency pair lower. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a bucket of other currencies dropped by 0.11% to 90.365 by 9:17 PM ET (2:17 AM GMT)—moving on, the intensifying hopes for more aggressive U.S. fiscal spending under Biden’s presidency continuously providing support to the U.S. Treasury bond yields, which could help the U.S. dollar to limit any meaningful downside.

Conversely, the positive performance around the equity market was slightly unaffected by the concerns about rising COVID-19 deaths and the re-imposing of the economically-painful hard lockdowns, which keep fueling the worries over the global economic recovery. As per the latest report, the death cases from the COVID in the U.S. crossed to 401,000, and the number of cases in the country exceeded 24 million as of January 20. In addition to this, the World Health Organization (WHO) said that the U.K. coronavirus strain had been detected in at least 60 countries so far. The Kingdom reported 33,355 new virus cases and 1,610 deaths on the day. Globally, the number of cases has topped 96 million. Also questioning the pair’s upside momentum could be the reports of likely shortage of vaccine in New York and postponement of Pfizer’s vaccine to Canada.


Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

103.53     104.16

103.31     104.56

102.91     104.78

Pivot Point: 103.94

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY continues to trade sideways in between a wide trading range of 104.340 – 103.560. The USD/JPY has formed a sideways channel on the 4-hour timeframe, and it has the chance of leading the pair towards the next resistance level of 104.800 upon the breakout of 104.810. The 50 periods EMA supports the bullish trend, and we may have odds of taking a buying trade over the 103.570 level today. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Daily Topic Forex Fundamental Analysis

GBP/AUD Global Macro Analysis – Part 1 & 2

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

This analysis will look into endogenous factors that influence economic growth both in the UK and Australia. We will also analyze the exogenous factors that impact the exchange rate of the GBP/AUD pair.

Ranking Scale

We will conduct correlation analysis, which we will use to rank the endogenous and exogenous factors on a scale of -10 to 10.

In ranking the endogenous factors, we will conduct a correlation analysis against the GDP growth rate. If the score is negative, the endogenous factor has resulted in depreciation of either the GBP of the AUD. Conversely, if the score is positive, then the factor has resulted in an appreciation of the local currency.

When the exogenous analysis is negative, the factor has resulted in a decline of the GBP/AUD exchange rate. If the score is positive, then the factor has led to an increase in the exchange rate.

Summary – GBP Endogenous Analysis

A -15 score indicates that the Pound has depreciated since the starting of 2020.

Summary – AUD Endogenous Analysis

A score of -8 indicates that the Australian dollar has depreciated as well since the beginning of 2020.

Indicator Score Total State Comment
Australia Employment Rate -3 10 61.2% in October The employment rate hit 20-year lows during the pandemic. It’s expected to continue recovery as the economy recovers
Australia Core Consumer Prices 2 10 117.49 in Q3 2020 The inflation rate still lower than Q1, but the demand is increasing in the economy
Australia Manufacturing Production -3 10 Q3 projected to drop by 3.5% Q2 dropped by 6.2%. Production expected to improve in Q3 as business operation resume some normalcy
Australia Business Confidence 6 10 NAB business confidence was 12 in November It’s the highest level since April 2018. This shows that businesses are highly optimistic about their future operations
Australia Consumer Spending -3 10 Was 253.648 billion AUD in Q3 2020 Q3 levels still lower than Q1 domestic expenditure. Expected to increase further when the economy recovers to pre-pandemic levels
Australia Construction Output -3 10 Q3 output dropped by 2.6% Q3 drop caused by a reduction in residential and non-residential construction, engineering, and building works
Australia Government Budget Value -4 10 a budget deficit of 10.974 billion AUD in October The government budget deficit is improving. This shows that the revenue stream is improving as businesses resume operations
TOTAL SCORE -8
  1. Australia Employment Rate

This indicator shows the number of working-age Australians who are employed during a particular period. As an indicator of growth in the labor market, the employment rate shows if the economy is adding or shedding jobs. Thus, it is used to show periods of economic growth and contractions.

The Australian labor market has been recovering from the coronavirus pandemic shocks when the employment rate hit a 20-year low of 58.2%. In October 2020, Australia had an employment rate of 61.2%, up from 60.4% in September. However, it is still lower than January’s 62.6%. Australia’s employment rate has a score of -3.

  1. Australia Trimmed Mean Consumer Prices

This indicator is also called core consumer prices. It measures the price changes of goods and services that are frequently purchased by Australian households. The computation of the trimmed mean consumer prices excludes goods and services whose prices are volatile.

In Q3 2020, the core consumer prices in Australia rose to 117.49 from 117.04 in Q2. Q3 levels are also higher than the 117.17 points recorded in Q1. This shows that the economy is recovering since an increase in prices implies an increase in domestic demand for goods and services. We assign a score of 2.

  1. Australia Manufacturing Production

This indicator shows the YoY change in the value of output from the manufacturing sector. The Australian economy is heavily dependent on industrial production; hence, manufacturing production changes provides invaluable insights into the domestic economic growth. It also shows how the economy is recovering from the impact of COVID-19.

In Q2 2020, the YoY manufacturing production in Australia dropped by 6.2%, compared to 2.7% growth in Q1. Q3 YoY manufacturing production is expected to drop by 3.5%. Consequently, Australian manufacturing production has a score of -3.

  1. Australia Business Confidence

Business confidence in Australia is measured by conducting a monthly survey of about 600 businesses. They include small, medium, and large companies operating in non-agricultural sectors. The survey gauges the businesses’ expectations in terms of profitability, trading volume, and employees. The index is derived by considering the percentage of respondents who have good and very good expectations and those who have a bad and very bad outlook.

In November 2020, the NAB business confidence increased to 12 from 3 in October, which has been the highest since April 2018. Australia’s business confidence has a score of 6.

  1. Australia Consumer Spending

The indicator records the quarterly change in the value of goods and services consumed by domestic households. It includes expenditure by non-profit organizations that provide goods and services to Australian households and the value of backyard productions.

In Q3 of 2020, consumer spending in Australia rose to AUD 253.648 billion from AUD 235.131 billion in Q2. Although it’s lower than Q1 expenditure, domestic demand in the economy is rebounding from the slump of COVID-19. Consequently, Australian consumer spending has a score of -3.

  1. Australia Construction Output

This indicator shows the quarterly change in the value of construction work in Australia. The total value involves both private and public sector building and engineering work.

In the third quarter of 2020, Australia’s construction output dropped by 2.6% from a 0.5% growth in Q2. This drop was caused by output drop in residential and non-residential construction, engineering, and building works. Thus, we assign a score of -3.

  1. Australia Government Budget Value

The government budget value measures whether the Australian government has a budget surplus or deficit. A budget surplus implies that the government’s expenditure is less than its revenue. Similarly, a budget deficit means that the government spends more than it collects in terms of revenue.

In October 2020, Australia had a budget deficit of AUD 10.974 billion, up from a deficit of 33.613 billion in September. We assign a score of -4.

In the next article, you can find the Exogenous analysis of the GBP/AUD currency pair and also our forecast on its price movement in the near future. Cheers.

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Jan 20 – ETH Reaches a New All-Time High; Crypto Sector in the Red

The crypto sector ended up mostly in the red as altcoins started retracing after their moves to the upside. Bitcoin is currently trading for $35,776, representing a decrease of 2.1% compared to yesterday’s value. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has increased by 3.28% on the day, while LTC lost 3.44% of its value.

The crypto sector ended up mostly in the red as altcoins started retracing after their moves to the upside. Bitcoin is currently trading for $35,776, representing a decrease of 2.1% compared to yesterday’s value. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has increased by 3.28% on the day, while LTC lost 3.44% of its value.

The crypto sector ended up mostly in the red as altcoins started retracing after their moves to the upside. Bitcoin is currently trading for $35,776, representing a decrease of 2.1% compared to yesterday’s value. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has increased by 3.28% on the day, while LTC lost 3.44% of its value.

Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

Folder Protocol gained 813.46% in the past 24 hours, making it the most prominent daily crypto gainer by far. It is followed by Global Gaming’s 198.29% and Benchmark Protocol’s 159.89% gain. On the other hand, 3XT TOKEN lost 85.20%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by Ether Kingdoms Token’s loss of 61.70% and Matrix AI Network’s loss of 52.48%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s market dominance has moved down since our last report as altcoins started to outperform, with its value currently being 64.9%. This value represents a 0.7% difference to the downside when compared to the previously reported value.

Weekly Crypto Market Cap Chart

The cryptocurrency sector’s market capitalization has decreased slightly since we last reported, with its current value being $1.024 trillion. This represents a $10 billion decrease when compared to our previous report.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

_______________________________________________________________________

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s daily time-frame shows us that the largest cryptocurrency by market cap is still contained within the triangle formation (purple). Any break of the current sideways movement may contest the triangle as well. On the other hand, BTC on the 1-hour time-frame is bouncing between the $34,627 support and the $37,445 resistance level for the past five days.

Bitcoin’s price will soon have to break the sideways trading pattern and contest the triangle formation. If BTC bulls or bears manage to break the triangle formation, we could see a large move in the same direction.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart

Bitcoin’s short-term (4-hour and daily) technicals are slightly tilted towards the sell-side but still show a hint of neutrality or bullishness. Its weekly and monthly technicals are exactly the opposite, as they are slightly bullish but show some bearishness alongside it.

BTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (1-hour Chart):

  • Price is slightly below both its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
  • Price is slightly below its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (44.32)
  • Volume is average (low)

Key levels to the upside:          Key levels to the downside:

1: $37,445                             1: $34,627

2: $40,000                             2: $32,350

3: $42,000                             3: $27,960

Ethereum

The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap took advantage of the “altcoin season” as money moved from Bitcoin and onto other altcoins. Ever since Ether’s price bounced from the $1,211 level on Jan 18, we could see bulls coming to the market in larger numbers. This made the $1,350 level fall, and ETH finally set a new all-time high of $1,440. While the new ATH is just $20 away from its previous one, this is considered a testament to Ethereum’s upside potential.

Ether couldn’t position itself above the $1,420 (previous ATH) and fell below as it started retracing. Its price is now testing the $1,350 level but will most likely stay above it.


ETH/USD 1-hour Chart

Ethereum’s technicals on all time-frames are tilted towards the buy-side, but all show a hint of bearishness in the oscillator department.

ETH/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical Factors (1-hour Chart):

  • Price is above its 50-period and at its 21-period EMA
  • Price is slightly below its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (50.69)
  • Volume is above average

Key levels to the upside:          Key levels to the downside:

1: $1,420                               1: $1,350

2: $1,440                               2: $1,211

3: $1,450                               3: $1,183.85

Litecoin

Litecoin spent the day retracing from the recent $166.2 high after bulls reached exhaustion. LTC was trying to push towards the $180 levels and contest the 2021 highs but failed to do so as bulls spent too much strength in the $160 area, where the cryptocurrency faced heavy resistance.

Litecoin is now having a downward trajectory and has failed to break the 50-hour moving average in an attempt to break it. LTC traders may look for a trade after the cryptocurrency finishes testing the $142.1 level.

LTC/USD 1-hour Chart

Litecoin’s technicals on the 4-hour and monthly time-frames are completely bullish and show no neutrality or bearishness. On the other hand, its daily and weekly overviews show some form of bearishness.

LTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (1-hour Chart):

  • Its price is below both its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
  • Price sightly below its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (44.85)
  • Volume is average

Key levels to the upside:          Key levels to the downside:

1: $161.5                               1: $142.1

2: $181.3                               2: $128.42

3: $186.3                               3: $114.75

Categories
Forex Signals

AUD/USD Bearish Engulfing Candle – Is It Good Time to Sell?

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Join F.A. Telegram Channel for Free Trading Signals: https://t.me/forexsignalsFA

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During Tuesday’s early European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair snapped its previous two-day losing streak and caught some fresh bids around above 0.7700 level mostly due to the recent upticks in S&P 500 index, which tend to underpin the perceived risk currency Australian dollar and contributes to the currency pair gains. Hence, the market trading sentiment was being supported by the optimism over the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines and hopes for additional U.S. fiscal stimulus measures. 

Across the pond, the broad-based U.S. dollar bearish bias, triggered by multiple factors, also played its major role in strengthening the currency pair. In contrast to this, the long-lasting coronavirus distress globally keeps questioning the market’s upbeat mood, which could cap gains for the currency pair. At this time, the AUD/USD currency pair is currently trading at 0.7710 and consolidating in the range between 0.7672 – 0.7725.

The market trading sentiment has been gaining positive traction since the day started and was being supported by the optimism over the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines and hopes for additional U.S. fiscal stimulus measures. As per the latest report, the U.S. President-elect Joe Biden is prepared to take office on January 20, pushing for the $1.9 trillion stimulus package already outlined last week. In the meantime, the Treasury Secretary nominee Janet Yellen is also expected to push the government to “act big” with its next coronavirus relief package when she testifies before the Senate later on Tuesday. Hence, the prevalent upbeat market mood underpinned the Australian dollar’s perceived risk currency and contributed to the currency pair gains.

At the USD front, the broad-based U.S. dollar failed to gain any positive traction during the early European trading hours amid risk-on market sentiment. Apart from this, the greenback losses could also be associated with the low-interest record rates’ expectations. Conversely, the expectations of a larger government borrowing recently triggered a fresh leg up in the U.S. Treasury bond yields, which might help the U.S. dollar limit any meaningful downside. However, the losses in the U.S. dollar pushed the currency pair higher. The U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a bucket of other currencies dropped by 0.11% to 90.653 by 11:03 PM ET (4:03 AM GMT). 

On the bearish side, the long-lasting worries about the continuous surge in new COVID-19 cases challenging the upbeat market sentiment and turned out to be one of the key factors that kept the lid on any additional gains in the currency pair. Furthermore, the cautious sentiment ahead of President-elect Joe Biden’s inaugural ceremony also probes the bulls.

In the absence of high impact economic events from the U.S., the U.S. Treasury Secretary nominee Janet Yellen’s testimony will influence the USD price dynamics. Meanwhile, the broader market risk sentiment could produce some short-term trading opportunities around the currency pair.


Daily Support and Resistance

S1 0.7606

S2 0.7642

S3 0.7662

Pivot Point 0.7679

R1 0.7698

R2 0.7715

R3 0.7752

The AUD/USD is trading at 0.7709 level holding below an immediate resistance level of 0.7725. The recent closing bearish engulfing candles can trigger odds of selling bias in the AUD/USD pair. However, we are not taking a sell trade yet, as the 50 periods EMA and MACD is staying in a bullish zone. Let’s keep an eye on the 0.7722 level as selling can be expected below this level along with buying over the 0.7722 mark. Good luck! 

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 19 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Economic Sentiment Under Spotlight!

The eyes will remain on the European German ZEW Economic Sentiment data and the Current Account figures from Europe on the news front. All of the figures are expected to have a mixed impact, which may put sideways in the single currency Euro. Besides this, the eyes will stay on the German Final CPI figures.

The eyes will remain on the European German ZEW Economic Sentiment data and the Current Account figures from Europe on the news front. All of the figures are expected to have a mixed impact, which may put sideways in the single currency Euro. Besides this, the eyes will stay on the German Final CPI figures.

The eyes will remain on the European German ZEW Economic Sentiment data and the Current Account figures from Europe on the news front. All of the figures are expected to have a mixed impact, which may put sideways in the single currency Euro. Besides this, the eyes will stay on the German Final CPI figures.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

Today in the Asian trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair successfully extended its overnight bullish streak and remained supportive around just below 1.2100 level of upbeat market trading that weighed on the U.S. dollar. The U.S. dollar weakness was seen as one of the key factors that pushed the currency pair higher. However, the sentiment around the equity market was being supported by the expectations of additional fiscal stimulus. It should be noted that the U.S. President-elect Joe Biden is ready to take Office on January 20, pushing for the $1.9 trillion stimulus package already planned last week. Meanwhile, the cautious sentiment ahead of the Biden government’s inauguration and the coronavirus (COVID-19) worried added further weakness to the greenback and contributed to the currency pair gains. Across the Atlantic, the Eurozone finance ministers’ latest push for financial support for their economies to boost the post-pandemic recovery plans also played its major role in underpinning the EUR/USD currency pair. 

The escalating concerns over the COVID-19 cases and economically-painful hard lockdowns keep questioning the pair’s upside momentum on the bearish side. As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.2087 and consolidating in the range between 52.17 – 52.49. The market trading sentiment managed to erase its previous-day losses and turned positive during the Asian trading session on the day. However, the reason could be attributed to the high expectations of additional fiscal stimulus. It is worth recalling that the U.S. President-elect Joe Biden is ready to take Office on January 20, pushing for the $1.9 trillion stimulus package already outlined last week. In the meantime, the Treasury Secretary nominee Janet Yellen is expected to push the government to “act big” with its next coronavirus relief package when she testifies before the Senate later on Tuesday. This latest optimism put a bid under risk assets and weighed over the safe-haven U.S. dollar. 

On the bearish side, the concerns about rising COVID-19 cases and economically-painful hard lockdowns keep challenging the upbeat market performance, which was seen as the key factor that kept the lid on any additional gains the currency pair. As per the latest report, the COVID-19 cases in Europe, the U.S., and the U.K. decreased somewhat but still not satisfactory as the strains are spreading faster, which in turn cause fresh activity restrictions. Moving ahead, the market traders will keep their eyes on the German ZEW survey, which is due to release later in the day. Meanwhile, the covid updates and any additional stimulus hint will also be key to watch.


Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.2006      1.2091

1.2039      1.2106

1.2058      1.2139

Pivot Point: 1.2072

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is trading over 1.2064 support level, and closing of bullish engulfing candles over the same level supports the chances of

bullish correction until the 1.2115 level. On the lower side, the bearish breakout of the 1.2065 level can drive the selling trend until the support level of 1.2005. The 50 EMA and MACD suggest the pair is oversold and should reverse back slightly before exhibiting selling bias.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair failed to stop its previous session bearish bias and drew some offers around the 1.3535 level mainly due to the prevalent cautious mood, which underpinned the U.S. dollar and contributed to the currency pair losses. The optimism over the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines helps the currency pair to limit its deeper losses along with capping the losses could be the latest report by U.K. vaccine deployment minister Nadhim Zahawi that everyone will be granted a vaccine by September. Currently, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3537 and consolidating in the range between the 1.3524 – 1.3602.

Despite the on-going optimism about a potential treatment/vaccine and U.S. coronavirus (COVID-19) stimulus bill, the market risk mood failed to stop its previous negative performance and stay bearish during the European session amid growing market concerns over the potential economic fallout from the continuous rise in new COVID-19. The worries were further fueled by Friday’s disappointing U.S. monthly Retail Sales figures for December. 

At the USD front, the broad-based U.S. dollar extended its early-day gaining streak and remained bullish during the European session on the day as investors still preferring to invest in the safe-haven assets in the wake of the risk-off market sentiment. However, the U.S. dollar gains were seen as one of the key factors that kept the currency pair lower. 

The currency pair was further pressured across the ocean by the imposition of fresh restrictions in the U.K. On the other hand, the optimism over the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines failed to give any meaningful support to the currency pair. The market traders will keep their eyes on the BOE Gov Bailey Speaks along with the Candian Housing Starts data. In the meantime, the coronavirus saga developments could play a key role in influencing the market risk sentiment and the USD price dynamics. 


Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3555      1.3722

1.3445      1.3781

1.3387      1.3890

Pivot Point: 1.3613

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD pair trades have bounced off over the support level of 1.3534 level, and it’s likely to face resistance at the support become resistance level of 1.3617 level. Bullish crossover of this level can extend buying trend until 1.3697 area. On the lower side, the violation of the 1.3534 support level can extend the selling trend until the 1.3457 level. The MACD and RSI are in support of buying; thus, we should consider buying over 1.3617 and selling below the same.   

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair failed to stop its previous-day declining streak and remained depressed near 103.70 level mainly due to the worsening coronavirus (COVID-19) woes in the U.S., Europe, and some of the notable Asian nations like Japan, which fuel doubts over the global economic recovery and weighs on the market trading sentiment. In that way, the prevalent cautious sentiment benefitted the safe-haven Japanese yen and was seen as one of the key factors that exerting pressure on the USD/JPY currency pair. 

In contrast to this, the broad-based U.S. dollar strength, backed by the market risk-off tone, has become the key factor that helps the currency pair limit its deeper losses. Meanwhile, the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine’s positive developments help the market trading sentiment limit its deeper losses, which might change the currency pair’s direction. As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 103.77 and consolidating in the range between 103.69 – 103.93.

Despite the optimism about a potential treatment/vaccine, the market risk mood failed to stop its previous negative performance and stay bearish during the European session amid growing market concerns over the potential economic fallout from the continuous rise in new COVID-19. These worries were further fueled by Friday’s disappointing U.S. monthly Retail Sales figures for December. At the data front, the core retail sales declined 1.4% month-on-month in December, which was higher than the 0.1% contraction in forecasts and the 1.3% contraction recorded in November. Simultaneously, the Producer Price Index (PPI) increased 0.3% month on month in December, while retail sales declined 0.7% MoM in the same month. 

At the coronavirus front, the coronavirus (COVID-19) resurgence in Europe and the U.S. is still not showing any sign of slowing down, which keeps fueling the doubts over the economic recovery as the authorities in the U.S. and Europe keep imposing back to back restrictions over activities in efforts to control the spread of the virus. This, in turn, exerted downside pressure on the market risk tone and contributed to currency pair losses.

The traders will focus on the BOE Gov Bailey Speaks, and the Candian Housing Starts data. In the meantime, the coronavirus saga developments could play a key role in influencing the market risk sentiment and the USD price dynamics. 


Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

103.53      104.16

103.31      104.56

102.91      104.78

Pivot Point: 103.94

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY continues to trade sideways in between a wide trading range of 104.340 – 103.560. The USD/JPY has formed a sideways channel on the 4-hour timeframe, and it has the chance of leading the pair towards the next resistance level of 104.800 upon the breakout of 104.810. The 50 periods EMA supports the bullish trend, and we may have odds of taking a buying trade over the 103.570 level today. Good luck! 

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Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Jan 19 – Ether Breaks $1,300; Litecoin Skyrockets

The crypto sector was mostly green, with altcoins attempting to push up and reduce Bitcoin’s market dominance. Bitcoin is currently trading for $36,423, representing an increase of 3.85% compared to yesterday’s value. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has increased by 9.89% on the day, while LTC gained 13.38% of its value.

The crypto sector was mostly green, with altcoins attempting to push up and reduce Bitcoin’s market dominance. Bitcoin is currently trading for $36,423, representing an increase of 3.85% compared to yesterday’s value. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has increased by 9.89% on the day, while LTC gained 13.38% of its value.

The crypto sector was mostly green, with altcoins attempting to push up and reduce Bitcoin’s market dominance. Bitcoin is currently trading for $36,423, representing an increase of 3.85% compared to yesterday’s value. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has increased by 9.89% on the day, while LTC gained 13.38% of its value.

Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

4THPILLAR TECHNOLOGIES gained 441.52% in the past 24 hours, making it the most prominent daily crypto gainer by far. It is followed by CryptoAds Marketplace’s 221.1% and YAMv2’s 181.43% gain. On the other hand, CY Finance lost 66.83%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by Basiscoin Share’s loss of 39.38% and Trading Membership Community’s loss of 37.1%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s market dominance has moved down since our last report, with its value currently being 65.6%. This value represents a 0.5% difference to the downside when compared to the previously reported value.

Weekly Crypto Market Cap Chart

The cryptocurrency sector’s market capitalization has returned above the $1 trillion mark since we last reported, with its current value being $1.034 trillion. This represents a $41.3 billion increase when compared to our previous report.

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What happened in the past 24 hours?

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Technical analysis

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin spent the day mostly trading sideways, bound by the $34,627 to the downside and $37,445 to the upside. The price hopped between these levels and created a higher high higher low pattern, which later on broke after BTC couldn’t pass its immediate resistance level.

Bitcoin’s price has created a triangle pattern on the daily chart, and breaking this triangle to the upside or downside will determine the short-term price direction.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart

Bitcoin’s technicals on all time-frames show a slight bullish tilt, with its oscillators pointing towards the sell-side.

BTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (1-hour Chart):

  • Price is at both its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
  • Price is at its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (49.56)
  • Volume is average (low)

Key levels to the upside:          Key levels to the downside:

1: $37,445                             1: $34,627

2: $40,000                             2: $32,350

3: $42,000                             3: $27,960

Ethereum

Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum has spent the day first slowly preparing for a move and then explosively pushing to the upside. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap has, after confirming its position above the $1,211 level, shot up towards the $1,350 level, which it was not able to break. With the volume descending after that move, ETH will most likely not be able to break $1,350 unless a new wave of bulls comes into the market.

ETH/USD 1-hour Chart

Ethereum’s 4-hour, daily, and monthly technicals are completely bullish and show no signs of neutrality or bearishness. On the other hand, its weekly overview shows some neutrality.

ETH/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical Factors (1-hour Chart):

  • Price is above both its 50-period and its 21-period EMA
  • Price is at its top Bollinger band
  • RSI has just left the overbought area (67.24)
  • Volume has spiked up in the recent hours

Key levels to the upside:          Key levels to the downside:

1: $1,350                               1: $1,211

2: $1,420                               2: $1,183.85

3: $1,450                               3: $1,060.5

Litecoin

Litecoin was one of the largest daily gainers after its price suddenly shot up from $141 all the way up to $160 in just one hourly candle. While it seemed at first like the retracement will eat away the gains LTC made, the cryptocurrency made another push towards the upside and stopped just below the $161.55 resistance level.

Litcoin’s descending volume and price movement, as well as the number of sell orders near the $161.55 level, will most likely be enough to keep LTC below the resistance level for now.

LTC/USD 1-hour Chart

Litecoin’s technicals on the 4-hour, daily, and weekly time-frame are completely bullish, while its monthly technicals are slightly more neutral.

LTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (1-hour Chart):

  • Its price is above both its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
  • Price close to its top Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (66.70)
  • Volume is above average

Key levels to the upside:          Key levels to the downside:

1: $161.5                               1: $142.1

2: $181.3                               2: $128.42

3: $186.3                               3: $114.75

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Forex Videos

The DOW Jones Is Getting Ready To Drop!

https://youtu.be/MTrdWd2gI2I

https://youtu.be/MTrdWd2gI2I


Dow Jones 30 Industrial index pulls from historic highs. Where next?

 Thank you for joining this forex academy educational video.

In this session, we will be looking at the potential directional bias for the United States Dow Jones 30 industrial index, which has recently hit a historic high.

On the 6th of January 2021, the United States capitol riot shocked the world. The United States Congress insurrection was carried out by a mob of Donald Trump’s supporters in an attempt to overturn his defeat of the 2020 presidential election.

While the world’s media focused on the attack of the most advanced political system in the world, which was viewed by billions of people across the globe in utter shock and disbelief, and where 5 souls, including a police officer, lost their lives in the riot, the Dow Jones 30 industrial index, in a somewhat unexpected move, aggressively turned bid, and subsequently went on to reach an all-time record high around the 31,200 level.

The bull run has largely been a continuation of the 18,000 low reversal in March when the pandemic began to bite the US economy and caused the shock collapse from its recent 29,500 record-breaking pre-pandemic high.

Much of the pre-pandemic record-breaking high on us stock indices, including the Dow Jones 30, can be attributed to the Trump administration’s policies of low taxation for corporations and less red tape for them. Indeed, had it not been for the pandemic, President Trump may well have gone down as one of the best presidents ever in terms of revitalising the United States economy, where it also so reached a record number of US citizens in employment.

However, with Trump and the republican party on the way out, and with Biden and democratic about to take office on the 20th of January, 2021, the incredible amounts of money which have been thrown at the US economy to prop it up during the pandemic from the coffers of the United States treasury department,  must be repaid,  and where president-elect, Joe Biden has made it quite clear, during his campaigning, that he intends to raise corporate taxation in order to find some of the money, and where he will also reverse policies of the previous government,  such as low red tape requirements for businesses.

In which case, there is an obvious conflict, whereby one government’s policies caused Dow Jones to be at a record high and where the incoming party is about to reverse the policies which caused the record run, which will likely cause pressure on those businesses, which will have less profit due to higher taxation, in which case the stock market should reverse its winning streak? So why the continued bull run on stocks?

This can largely be put down to positioning.  Where hedge funds, banks, investors, and other financial institutions are preparing themselves for a potential future shock by driving stock indices higher before any such new legislation will cause a likely negative impact on stocks.

Quite often, investors will position themselves for future shocks by driving an asset higher, in anticipation of a future correction lower, – or the other way – which on a fundamental economic basis, in this scenario, should be the way forward if such policies of higher taxation were introduced. More tax equals less profit, equals lower dividends for investors, and lower corporate valuation.

We still have a few days to go and until the inauguration, and then there is the Donald Trump impeachment, which may cause a delay in the democratic party’s policy implementation, and, as shown here on the daily chart for the Dow Jones 30 index, it is still in a confirmed bull trend, in which case traders will be looking for breaches of the support and resistance lines as shown here, while eagerly waiting for any new policy changes by the incoming Democratic administration.

One thing is certain, there will be continued volatility in the financial markets as the fallout from the pandemic continues to cause turbulence and where recent data confirms higher unemployment and less consumer spending in the USA, which are more possible reasons for the fall in the index from its recent high, and worries about the change in government and policies. 

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Forex Videos

Biden Shows His Cards – This Is How The Market Is Preparing To React!

https://youtu.be/IVvDckE_dRg

https://youtu.be/IVvDckE_dRg


Biden shows his cards, markets are rattled! – where next for the US Dollar?

Thank you for joining this forex academy educational video.

On Thursday the 14th of January, president-elect Joe Biden addressed the US nation and said that ‘’the $600 already appropriated is simply not enough’’. 

He carried on by saying that the new democrat government would issue another round of $1,400, on top of.the $600 payments, thus showing his hand with regard to the 15 million adult dependants relying on these stimulus checks.  This segment of the Covid relief package runs to 1.9 trillion dollars. 

With yet many more millions of Americans, including migrants, who have slipped the net with regard to relief packages, the wranglers about entitlement will go on as long as the pandemic continues to run rife throughout the United States.  With some young adults purchasing new cars with the extra cash, and others boasting of savings of $13,000 from the relief payments, it is hardly surprising that there will be continued frictions between the two parties, let alone the public and pressure groups, which will only go to show that this is not a one-size-fits-all policy.

Markets saw volatility following the comments with the dollar index shown here on the daily time frame, recovering from its low of 89.15, in the dollar-weighted average against the pound, the Euro, the yen, Swiss franc Canadian dollar, and Australian and New Zealand dollars. 

Although the rot stopped on the 6th of January, dollar strength has been conforming to this support line, on the 1-hour chart, which was bolstered by Joe Biden’s comments on the 14th , to the point where we have a high of 90.80 at the time of writing.

While the bull run on the US dollar may be partially down to Joe Biden’s covid relief policy,  there are other factors to consider, including the buy the rumour sell the fact trading phenomenon, where market participants were largely expecting the incoming President to instigate a larger relief package and especially now that the democrats are in control in Congress, thus making it more easily to be able to get through new policies.

Other things to consider, as shown here on the daily cable chart, where the pound to US Dollar pair remains in a bull run, although it has topped out at the 1.37 exchange rate, having achieved the high due to the success of the UK and EU signing a post Brexit free trade deal,  which has been giving the pair a lift, but where the United Kingdom is currently in a tier 4 lockdown due to the increasing covid transmission rate.

 

 Here we can see a daily chart of the euro US dollar pair,  which is by volume the largest traded component  on a weighted basis of the dollar index,  and where we can see CIA Here. 

This is a daily chart of the euro US dollar pair, which by weighted volume is the largest component of the US dollar index. Therefore, it is more likely to be a larger contributing factor to the directional bias of the dollar index.  

Here we have a classic bull run, followed by a period of consolidation, with a continuation bull run, to a high of 1.23, during the beginning of 2021, and where price action has breached the bull run’s resistance line as highlighted and is falling back to just below 1.21 at the time of writing. This is lending itself to the general strength of the US dollar when simultaneously combined with the actions of cable.

And so, although Joe Biden’s covid relief stimulus package would appear to be a pivotal point in the acceleration in the US dollar strength, there are other things to consider, such as multi-month highs, as shown with cable and the Eurodollar pair.  

We also have to factor in the fact that the dollar index failed to breach the 89.00 key level, where the previous high going back to the beginning of the pandemic was 103.00, a hefty grabbing for the dollar, and where traders will always be eying the tops and bottoms of huge moves while looking for turning points.

Traders always expect volatility when there is a change of president, and even more so when there is a change in party, such as in this case where are the outgoing republicans will be replaced by the Democratic party’s polities. The next stage will be waiting to see if the outgoing party’s policies are replaced and, if so, what this might mean for the financial markets.  

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Forex Fundamental Analysis

GBP/NZD Global Macro Analysis – Part 3

GBP/NZD Exogenous Analysis The UK and New Zealand Current Account Differential The current account differential between the UK and NZ is the value of the subtraction of the NZ current account balance and the UK’s current account. For the GBP/NZD pair, if the current account differential is positive, it means that the UK has a […]

GBP/NZD Exogenous Analysis The UK and New Zealand Current Account Differential The current account differential between the UK and NZ is the value of the subtraction of the NZ current account balance and the UK’s current account. For the GBP/NZD pair, if the current account differential is positive, it means that the UK has a […]

GBP/NZD Exogenous Analysis

  1. The UK and New Zealand Current Account Differential

The current account differential between the UK and NZ is the value of the subtraction of the NZ current account balance and the UK’s current account. For the GBP/NZD pair, if the current account differential is positive, it means that the UK has a higher current account balance than NZ. Thus, the price of the GBP/NZD pair will increase. Conversely, if the differential is negative, NZ has a higher current account balance than the UK. Theoretically, this means that traders would be bullish on the NZD; hence, the GBP/NZD pair price would drop.

In Q3 2020, NZ had a current account deficit of $2.48 billion while the UK a deficit of $20.97 billion. This means that the current account differential is -$18.49 billion. Thus, we assign a score of -5.

  1. The interest rate differential between the UK and New Zealand

The interest rate differential for the GBP/NZD pair is the difference between the UK and NZ’s interest rate. Carry traders and investors would direct their money to the currency, which offers higher interest rates. Therefore, if the interest rate differential for the GBP/NZD pair is positive, it means that the UK offers a higher interest rate than NZ. Hence, traders will be bullish on the GBP/NZD pair. Conversely, if the interest rate differential is negative, it means that NZ has a higher interest rate than the UK. This means that traders would be bearish on the GBP/NZD pair.

In 2020, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut its official cash rate from 1% to 0.1%, while the BOE cut the interest rate from 0.75% to 0.1%. In this case, the interest rate differential is 0%. Thus, we assign a score of 0.

  1. The differential in GDP growth rate between the UK and New Zealand

This differential shows which economy is expanding faster between the NZ economy and the UK economy. Comparing domestic economies using their GDP growth rates is more effective than using absolute GDP figures since they vary in size.

If the GDP growth rate differential is negative, the NZ economy is growing faster than the UK economy. This would result in a bearish trend for the GBP/NZD pair. Conversely, the pair will have a bullish trend if the differential is positive since it would mean that the UK economy is expanding more than the NZ economy.

The first three quarters of 2020 saw the NZ economy expand by 0.4% and the UK contract by 5.8%. In this case, the GDP growth rate differential is -6.2%. Hence, the score of -4.

Conclusion

Indicator Score Total State Comment
The UK and New Zealand Current Account Differential -5 10 A differential of – $18.49 NZ has a lower current account deficit than the UK.
The interest rate differential between the UK and New Zealand 0 10 0.00% The 0% interest rate differential is expected to persist in the short-term. That’s because neither the RBNZ and the BOE have scheduled changes in the monetary policy
The differential in GDP growth rate between the UK and New Zealand -4 10 -6.20% New Zealand’s economy expanded by 0.4% in the first three quarters of 2020, while the UK contracted by 5.8%
TOTAL SCORE -9

GBP/NZD exogenous factors have a cumulative score of -9. It means we should expect a continued downtrend in the pair for the short term.

In the above image, we can see that this pair’s weekly chart trading below the 200-period MA for the first time since August 2019. Cheers.

Categories
Forex Fundamental Analysis

GBP/NZD Global Macro Analysis – Part 1 & 2

Introduction In this analysis, we will analyze endogenous factors that influence both the UK and New Zealand economies. The analysis will also include exogenous factors that impact the exchange rate between the GBP and the NZD. Ranking Scale We’ll rank the endogenous and exogenous factors on a scale from -10 to +10. The score of […]

Introduction In this analysis, we will analyze endogenous factors that influence both the UK and New Zealand economies. The analysis will also include exogenous factors that impact the exchange rate between the GBP and the NZD. Ranking Scale We’ll rank the endogenous and exogenous factors on a scale from -10 to +10. The score of […]

Introduction

In this analysis, we will analyze endogenous factors that influence both the UK and New Zealand economies. The analysis will also include exogenous factors that impact the exchange rate between the GBP and the NZD.

Ranking Scale

We’ll rank the endogenous and exogenous factors on a scale from -10 to +10.

The score of the endogenous factors will be determined from correlation analysis between the GDP growth rate. If the score is negative, the endogenous factor had a devaluing effect on the domestic currency. Conversely, if the score is positive, the factor led to the appreciation of the domestic currency.

Similarly, we’ll do a correlation analysis between the exogenous factors and the GBP/NZD exchange rate. If the correlation is negative, the factor results in a drop in the exchange rate. If positive, then the exogenous factor increases the exchange rate.

Summary – GBP Endogenous Analysis

A -15 score on Pound’s Endogenous Analysis indicates that this currency has depreciated since the beginning of 2020.

Summary – NZD Endogenous Analysis

A positive 5 indicates that the New Zealand dollar has appreciated since the beginning of this year.

Indicator Score Total State Comment
New Zealand Employment Rate -7 10 66.4% in Q3 2020 The NZ labor market is yet to recover from the economic disruptions of the pandemic
New Zealand Core Consumer Prices 1 10 1054 points in Q3 2020 From Q1 to Q3, inflation has increased by 1 point
New Zealand Industrial Production 5 10 A 3.1% increase in Q3 The NZ industrial sector is rebounding from a 12.1% drop in Q2.
New Zealand Business Confidence 7 10 Was 9.4 in November November showed the first positive reading in ANZ business confidence since August 2018
New Zealand Consumer Spending 5 10 Q3 spending was 41.335 billion NZD. Q3 consumer spending was the highest recorded in 2020. This shows that the domestic demand has recovered beyond the pre-pandemic period
New Zealand Construction Output -4 10 Q2 output dropped by 24.2% The worst decline in construction output in about 18 years. It’s bound to increase as COVID-19 restrictions ease
New Zealand Government Budget Value -2 10 2020 projected deficit of 4.5 billion NZD This would be a drop from a surplus of 7.5 billion NZD in 2019. Attributed to the increase in government spending during the pandemic
TOTAL SCORE 5
  1. New Zealand Employment Rate

The employment rate shows the growth in New Zealand’s labor market. The change in the labor market shows how the economy is performing – especially in the coronavirus pandemic. The labor market shows if the economy is churning out new jobs or if jobs are lost. Thus, the growth of the labor market is a leading indicator of economic growth.

In Q3 2020, New Zealand’s employment rate dropped to 66.4% from 67.1% in Q2 and 67.7% in Q1. This shows that the labor market is yet to recover from the economic shocks of the pandemic. The New Zealand employment rate has a score of -7.

  1. New Zealand Core Consumer Prices

This indicator samples the price changes in a basket of the most commonly purchased goods and services by households. The price changes represent the rate of inflation in the overall economy. Note that the computation of the core consumer prices excludes goods and services whose prices tend to be volatile. It helps avoid seasonal distortions in the index.

In Q3 of 2020, the core consumer prices in New Zealand rose to 1054 points from 1048 in Q2. The index had only increased by 1 point in 2020. Thus, we assign a score of 1.

  1. New Zealand Industrial Production

Industrial production in New Zealand refers to the YoY change in total manufacturing sales. It measures the YoY change in sales volume in the manufacturing sector. A survey of 13 industries across the manufacturing sector is surveyed to derive the YoY manufacturing sales data for the whole sector. Some of these industries include; petroleum and coal products, metal products, machinery, equipment and furniture, and food and beverage. Naturally, expansion in industrial production corresponds to the expansion of the economy.

New Zealand manufacturing sales rose by 3.1% in Q3 2020 from a drop of 12.1%. This is the largest YoY increase in manufacturing sales in three years. It shows that the economy is rebounding. We assign a score of 5.

  1. New Zealand Business Confidence

NZ business confidence is a survey of about 700 businesses. They are polled to establish their expectations about the future business operating environment and economic growth in general. Some aspects surveyed include; activity outlook, employment prospects, capacity utilization, and investment decisions.

In December 2020, the NZ ANZ business confidence rose to 9.4 from -6.9 in November. This shows an increased optimism in NZ businesses since it is the first positive reading since August 2018. Thus, we assign a score of 7.

  1. New Zealand Consumer Spending

This measures the value of the quarterly consumer expenditure in NZ. Changes in consumer expenditure go hand in hand with domestic demand changes in the economy, which drive GDP growth.

In Q3 2020, the NZ consumer spending increased to NZD 41.335 billion from NZD 35.197 billion in Q2. More so, the Q3 consumer spending is more than the NZD 40.04 billion recorded in Q1. Consequently, the NZ consumer spending has a score of 5.

  1. New Zealand Construction Output

This indicator shows the overall change in the value of all construction work done by contractors in NZ. It compares the YoY quarterly change, which helps to show if the economy is expanding or contracting.

In Q2 2020, the NZ construction output dropped by 24.2% compared to the 4.1% drop in Q2. This is the worst drop in over 18 years. Thus, we assign a score of -4.

  1. New Zealand Government Budget Value

This is the difference between the revenues that the NZ government collects and the amount it spends. Deficits arise if the revenues are less than expenditures, while surplus occurs when the revenues exceed expenditure.

In 2019, the NZ government had a budget surplus of NZD 7.5 billion. In 2020, it was projected that the budget would hit a deficit of NZD 4.5 billion. This is due to increased government expenditure to alleviate the pandemic’s economic shocks while revenues have been depressed due to nationwide shutdowns. Thus, we assign a score of -2.

For the exogenous analysis of both of these currencies, you can check our very next article. In case of any queries, let us know in the comments below. Cheers.

Categories
Forex Course

209. Inter Market Analysis At A Glance

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

Internet analysis is referred to as a method leveraged to analyze markets by assessing the correlation between various categories of assets. This means that the ups and downs happening in one market may or may not impact the other markets. Therefore, a thorough study of their relationships is beneficial to the trader.

Understanding The Basics Of Intermarket Analysis

It works with multiple financial markets and asset classes related to each other to identify strengths or weaknesses. Rather than assessing the asset classes or financial markets individually, Inter-market analysis evaluates different correlated asset classes or financial markets like bonds, stocks, commodities, and currencies. Such analysis expands on looking at each market or asset individually while comparing them with each other.

Correlation Of Intermarket Analysis

Performing an Intermarket analysis is simple as you would need access to only data. And there is no dearth of data in today’s time; you can find them broadly and access them for free. Charting programs and spreadsheets are other things that you need for this analysis. Here you will compare one variable with another in a different data set.

In this analysis, a positive correlation can move up to +10, signifying a positive and ideal correlation between two data sets. Additionally, in a negative or inverse correlation, the value can go as down as -1.0. When the reading comes close to the zero lines, it will reflect that there lacks a discernible correlation among the two samples.

An ideal correlation between two variables for an extended time period is very uncommon. However, analysts generally agree that reading maintained below the -0.7 level or above +0.7 level is quite prominent. This level depicts around a 70% correlation. Moreover, when the correlation changes from positive to negative, it indicates an unstable relationship, which is not ideal for trading.

Please take the quiz below to know if you have got the concepts right. Cheers!

[wp_quiz id=”102178″]
Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 18 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Martin Luther King Day! 

The market may offer thin trading volume and volatility on the back of a holiday in the U.S. The U.S. banks will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King Day. However, the German Buba report will be in focus today to predict price action.

The market may offer thin trading volume and volatility on the back of a holiday in the U.S. The U.S. banks will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King Day. However, the German Buba report will be in focus today to predict price action.

The market may offer thin trading volume and volatility on the back of a holiday in the U.S. The U.S. banks will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King Day. However, the German Buba report will be in focus today to predict price action.

Economic Events to Watch Today  


 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

During Monday’s early European trading hours, the EUR/USD currency pair failed to stop its previous session losing streak and remained sideways around the 1.2071 mark due to the sluggish market sentiment underpinned the safe-haven U.S. dollar and contributed to the currency pair gains. Besides this, the selling bias around the currency pair could also be attributed to the rising COVID-19 and stricter activity restrictions in Europe, raising doubts about the European economies and pushing the shared currency down. Conversely, the EUR/USD currency pair’s declines were rather unaffected by the latest reports suggesting that Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte faces a confidence vote in the lower house. Currently, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.2075 and consolidating in the range between the 1.2065 – 1.2086.

The global equity market failed to stop its previous session’s bearish performance and remained sluggish during the early European session as concerns about the potential economic fallout from the Covid-19 surge remain on the cards. These concerns were triggered after Friday’s disappointing U.S. monthly Retail Sales data. At the data front, the core retail sales declined 1.4% month-on-month in December, which was higher than the 0.1% contraction in forecasts and the 1.3% contraction recorded in November. Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index (PPI) increased 0.3% month on month in December, while retail sales declined by 0.7% in the same month.

The equity market losses could also be tied to the prevalent cautious mood ahead of U.S. President-elect Joe Biden’s first day of duty and initially negative signals for taxpayers and Canadian oil companies. In that way, the bearish tone around the equity markets was seen as one of the key factors that helped the safe-haven U.S. dollar.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.2148     1.2178

1.2129     1.2189

1.2118     1.2208

Pivot Point: 1.2159

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is trading over the 1.2065 support level, and the closing of Doji candles above the same level supports the chances of

bullish correction until the 1.2115 level. On the lower side, a bearish breakout of 1.2065 can extend the selling trend until the support level of 1.2005. The 50 EMA and MACD suggest the pair is oversold and should reverse back a bit before exhibiting selling bias.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair failed to maintain its overnight bullish bias and drew some offers around the 1.3680 level mainly due to the downbeat market trading mood, which underpinned the U.S. dollar bullish and contributed to the currency pair losses.

At the USD front, the broad-based U.S. dollar managed to extend its early-day gaining streak and remained bullish during the European session on the day as investors still prefer to invest in the safe-haven wake of the risk-off market sentiment. The U.S. dollar has been supported by the Democrat victories in the runoff Senate elections in Georgia earlier in the month, which saw a surge in U.S. yields as Democrats got control of Congress. The U.S. dollar gains were seen as one of the key factors that kept the currency pair lower. The U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a bucket of other currencies rose by 0.05% to 90.800 by 10:46 AM ET.

At home, the wave of the coronavirus and tighter travel restrictions in Europe keep fueling the doubts over economic recovery as back-to-back lockdown restrictions negatively affect economic activities. The latest report suggests the total novel coronavirus cases of 23,653,919 yesterday against 23,440,774 in the previous report on January 16.

Besides this, the selling bias around the currency pair could also be associated with the ever-rising numbers of COVID-19 and tougher lockdown restrictions in the U.K., which keep raising doubts over the economic recovery. In contrast to this, the latest reports suggest that the Bank of England (BOE) will keep the interest rates unchanged until 2024 to avoid negative rates, which helped the currency pair limit its losses. Also capping the losses could be the latest optimism around the coronavirus better situation in the U.K. 


Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3555     1.3722

1.3445     1.3781

1.3387     1.3890

Pivot Point: 1.3613

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD pair also trades sideways between a narrow trading range of 1.3549 – 1.3452. On the higher side, a bullish breakout of 1.3549 level can extend the buying trend until the next resistance area of 1.3628 and 1.3698. Conversely, a bearish breakout of 1.3549 support level can extend the selling trend until 1.3455 and 1.3346. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair successfully maintained its bullish bias and took steps near mid- 103.00 regions largely due to the market’s downbeat mode and a big rally in the U.S. bond yield retained the U.S. dollar bullish and added to the currency pair accruals. Nevertheless, the market trading opinion was being pressed by the ever-rising figures of COVID-19 and stricter lockdown restrictions that keep fueling doubts over the global economy’s recovery. 

Meanwhile, the equity markets’ slumps were further bolstered by the renewed Sino-US tussle, which extended some support to the safe-haven Japanese yen and capped the upside for the USD/JPY currency pair. Conversely, the optimism about a potential treatment/vaccine and U.S. coronavirus (COVID-19) stimulus bill keeps challenging the market risk-off mood, which might change the direction for the USD/JPY currency pair. Currently, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 103.78 and consolidating in the range between 103.70 – 103.85.

The market trading sentiment failed to stop its early-day negative performance and remained pessimistic during the Asian trading session. The downfall was completely sponsored by the fears of intensifying coronavirus (COVID-19) conditions throughout the world, which keeps fueling the doubts over the global economic recovery from COVID-19. As per the latest report, France recently imposed a new nationwide lockdown, while German Chancellor Merkel is considering toughening the German lockdown. Apart from this, nearly 22M people are currently under strict lockdown conditions in China’s Hebei province. This happened right after the country posted the largest number of new Covid-19 infections in over 5-months on Wednesday. 

At the USD front, the broad-based U.S. dollar managed to extend its early-day gaining streak and remained bullish during the European session on the day as investors still prefer to invest in the safe-haven securities back of the risk-off market sentiment. The greenback has been supported by the Democrat victories in the runoff Senate elections in Georgia earlier in the month, which saw a surge in U.S. yields as Democrats got control of Congress. The U.S. dollar gains were seen as one of the key factors that kept the currency pair lower. The U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a bucket of other currencies rose by 0.05% to 90.800 by 10:46 AM ET.

At home, the wave of the coronavirus and tighter travel restrictions in Europe keep fueling the doubts over economic recovery as back-to-back lockdown restrictions negatively affect economic activities. The latest report suggests the total novel coronavirus cases of 23,653,919 yesterday against 23,440,774 in the previous report on January 16.


Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

103.53     104.16

103.31     104.56

102.91     104.78

Pivot Point: 103.94

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The safe-haven currency pair USD/JPY slipped to trade at 104.054 level amid increased demand for safe-haven assets. The USD/JPY has formed an upward channel on the 4-hour timeframe, and it has the chance of leading the pair towards the next resistance level of 104.340 level. The 50 periods EMA supports the bullish trend, and we may have odds of taking a buying trade over the 103.570 level today. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Videos

Market volatility continues into 2021, where next for Cable?

https://youtu.be/V1gF-10QUsw

https://youtu.be/V1gF-10QUsw

 


Market volatility continues into 2021, where next for Cable?

 

Thank you for joining this forex academy educational video.

In this session, we will be taking a look at how the pound is faring against the United States dollar as the UK leaves the European Union to go on its own way as an independent trading nation once again.

In this daily chart for cable, we can see a general trend higher from the 12th of May 2020, which culminated in a peak of 1.3700 at position A, which coincides with a future free trade agreement being announced between the United Kingdom and the European Union, which was generally seen by the market as going to happen, and which fuelled the bull rally as played out on the chart.

The pullback to the current level at 1.3558, at the time of writing, was to be expected, on the basis many traders work on the principle of buy the rumor and sell the fact, in which case we might naturally expect to see some traders exiting their long trades due to profit-taking, and a fear of a collapse due to this common market practice of buying the rumor and selling the fact. But the sell-off has been fairly muted, only flattening out to the current exchange rate.  

The real test here will be whether there is a move higher from position B to a retest of the 1.3700 line, which would then likely cause a push above it on towards 1.3800 and beyond, or a move lower towards the support line when longer-term institutional traders will be looking for the support line to breach, or price action to bounce higher and perhaps a retest of the 1.3700 figure from there.

Things to factor in are the extremely high rate of covid infections spreading through the United Kingdom and causing further lockdowns and loss of productivity within the UK, where long-term effects of this on the economy are not good.  The markets have been buoyed by the measures put in place by the government to protect businesses and inject money into the system.

We also have to consider a new United States president will be inaugurated in a couple of week’s time, and what effect this has on the United States dollar as he begins to introduce new legislation to raise income tax and increase red tape for businesses as he has pledged to do.

The recent pullback in the pound against the dollar has largely been a result of all of these factors and a slight improvement in US dollar sentiment. 

 Expect extreme volatility as we move in towards the middle part of January, especially around the time of the inauguration on the 20th of January.

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Jan 18 – Bitcoin Drops During the Weekend, ETH Remains Strong

The crypto sector spent the weekend in a mostly descending fashion, with BTC continuing its short-term downtrend. Bitcoin is currently trading for $35,258, representing an increase of 0.14% compared to yesterday’s value. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has decreased by 0.39% on the day, while LTC lost 0.46% of its value.

The crypto sector spent the weekend in a mostly descending fashion, with BTC continuing its short-term downtrend. Bitcoin is currently trading for $35,258, representing an increase of 0.14% compared to yesterday’s value. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has decreased by 0.39% on the day, while LTC lost 0.46% of its value.

The crypto sector spent the weekend in a mostly descending fashion, with BTC continuing its short-term downtrend. Bitcoin is currently trading for $35,258, representing an increase of 0.14% compared to yesterday’s value. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has decreased by 0.39% on the day, while LTC lost 0.46% of its value.

Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

Astosch gained 285.95% in the past 24 hours, making it the most prominent daily crypto gainer by far. It is followed by ALL BEST ICO’s 273.67% and Yeld Finance’s 264.65% gain. On the other hand, Bestay lost 87%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by Zugacoin’s loss of 85.51% and VKF Platform’s loss of 77.77%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s market dominance has moved down since our last report, with its value currently being 66.1%. This value represents a 2.3% difference to the downside when compared to the previously reported value.

Weekly Crypto Market Cap Chart

The cryptocurrency sector’s market capitalization has dropped below the $1 trillion mark since we last reported, with its current value being $993.33 billion. This represents a $43.67 billion decrease when compared to our previous report.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

_______________________________________________________________________

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

Bitcoin spent the weekend following the downtrend it started on Jan 14, with its price slowly declining from a high of $39,600 to a low of $33,833. During the downtrend, the price has contested and broken the $36,640 level to the downside and looks like it will contest the $33,200 level in the near future. BTC is currently trading at a little above $35,000, representing a weekly loss of 6.09% and a monthly gain of 29.87%.

Bitcoin’s price has responded well to the 21-day moving average and found very strong support there. Staying above this level will be crucial if BTC wants to turn to the upside.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart

Bitcoin’s technicals on the daily, weekly, and monthly time-frame are completely bullish and show no neutral or bearish signs. On the other hand, its 4-hour overview is completely bearish.

BTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (1-hour Chart):

  • Price is slightly below its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
  • Price is slightly below its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (43.00)
  • Volume is descending

Key levels to the upside:          Key levels to the downside:

1: $36,640                             1: $33,200

2: $40,000                             2: $30,640

3: $42,000                             3: $27,960

Ethereum

Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum’s weekend was not spent in a downfall. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap headed towards the $1,300 level but failed to break it, which prompted a weekend of sideways trading. While ETH did break the $1,211 level to the downside, the $1,183.85 level held up. Ether is currently trading in a very narrow range, bound by the aforementioned levels.

ETH’s short-term movement will greatly depend on two factors: Bitcoin’s volatility and Ether itself, breaking its immediate support or resistance levels.

ETH/USD 1-hour Chart

Ethereum’s technicals all time-frames are tilted towards the buy-side, with the 4-hour, daily, and weekly overviews fully pointing towards the buy-side. Its monthly overview, however, has oscillators pointing towards neutrality.

ETH/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical Factors (1-hour Chart):

  • Price is slightly below its 50-period and its 21-period EMA
  • Price is between its middle and bottom Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (43.72)
  • Volume is slightly below average

Key levels to the upside:          Key levels to the downside:

1: $1,211                               1: $1,183.85

2: $1,255                               2: $1,060.5

3: $1,350                               3: $1,047.5

Litecoin

Litecoin mirrored Bitcoin’s movements over the weekend, stepping into a downtrend that started on Jan 14, after Litecoin couldn’t push its price to $160. The price is currently fighting for the $142.1 level, which it has recently broken to the downside.

While Litecoin’s movements seem to mirror Bitcoin’s, its volume remains stable despite Bitcoin’s volume dropping. At the moment, LTC might be a better choice for people that want to be less affected by Bitcoin’s volatility.

LTC/USD 1-hour Chart

Litecoin’s technicals on the daily, weekly, and monthly time-frame are completely bullish and show no neutral or bearish signs (though they are slightly less bullish than Bitcoin’s overviews). On the other hand, its 4-hour overview is completely bearish.

LTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (1-hour Chart):

  • Its price is slightly below its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
  • Price close to its bottom Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (42.47)
  • Volume is average

Key levels to the upside:          Key levels to the downside:

1: $142.1                               1: $128.42

2: $161.5                               2: $114.75

3: $181.3                               3: $97.8

Categories
Forex Videos

Trump Leaves Office! What Now For The Forex Space?

https://youtu.be/0xyyVHQEkzA

https://youtu.be/0xyyVHQEkzA

 


What to expect in the Forex space when Trump leaves office

Thank you for joining this Forex  Academy educational video.

In this session, we will be looking at the potential key moves in the forex space with Donald Trump leaves office in a few days’ time.

History will look back at Donald Trump’s presidency, and it looks like historians will likely give him a good kicking.

But, if we hark back 12 months, pre-pandemic, unemployment in the United States was at a record low, the gross domestic product was high, US stock markets were at all-time record highs: The United States economy had never been fitter, thanks to having him at the helm.

Donald Trump’s style of presidency will be seen as abrasive and belligerent. But we have to remember he was not a politician to start with. He was a tough businessman with a no-nonsense attitude, and that’s why people voted for him to become president in the first place. It was a poke in the eye for the political elite in an attempt to bring back wealth for ordinary people. It was his lowering of corporate taxation and red tape and policies to bring back manufacturing to the United States that lifted the US economy to retain its rank as the most powerful nation on the planet.

But, when push came to shove, Donald Trump fell on his own sword because of his mishandling of the coronavirus pandemic.  The bottom of his presidential world fell out because he buried his head in the sand and ignored all the warnings about the horrendous covid disease.  His lacklustre attitude, and slowness to respond to the crisis, created friction at every point between the democrats and republican parties instead of trying to pull both sides together for the sake of the nation, which did nothing to help while the economy as it  faltered with mass unemployment and the sharpest decrease in GDP in US history.

Financial traders won’t miss him; his use of Twitter affected the financial markets without warning, creating huge swings in stock indices, bond yields, and the forex space, only for him to reverse many of his Twitter comments later, creating more mayhem while commenting on highly sensitive foreign and economic policy decisions he planned to implement, while he fed such information into the market with no warning or embargo.  Many would say good riddance and be happy to get back to the old style of governance under a lifelong politician, Joe Biden.

Some analysts predict that President Trump will try and upset the apple cart before he leaves office, while the Democrats are threatening to impeach him and have him removed, the timing would suggest this is impossible with just 10 days until he leaves office, at the time of writing.  But it is said that fellow republicans are side-lining him with regard to policy decisions and are trying to keep him at arms-length until he has gone. 

Throw into the mix US stock markets at record highs, due to what they currently see as the new president having more clout due to the democratic party holding more power in Congress after the recent runoffs in Georgia, to be able to bring in more covid stimulus aid packages and roll out vaccines across the United States.

Certainly, the dollar index – seen here – seems to be trying to fight back to the 91.00 level at the time of writing, having almost hit 88.00 in the last few days at position B, having fallen from its high in march at position A of 103.00.  does this mean that the rot has stopped?  Possibly not, but with a president on the way out and a new one on the way in, we can certainly expect the unexpected.  

This might mean that the Eurodollar pair, which has been riding high, will take a breather, having found resistance at 1.2330, shown here on this daily chart at position A

And with cable failing to reach the key 1.3700 on this daily chart at position A,  this might also be a reason why the markets are taking a breather from shorting the US dollar.

In conclusion, expect the unexpected, expect volatility, and expect the fundamentals to take a side-line while the US transition between presidents is over and new policies are implemented by the incoming democratic party.

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Jan 15 – Bitcoin Retraces After Hitting $40k; Ethereum Contests $1.2k

The crypto sector was mostly stable in the past 24 hours, as most cryptocurrencies were trying to find their top or retraced slightly. Bitcoin is currently trading for $37,766, representing a decrease of 0.42% compared to yesterday’s value. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has increased by 5.98% on the day, while LTC gained 0.33% of its value.

The crypto sector was mostly stable in the past 24 hours, as most cryptocurrencies were trying to find their top or retraced slightly. Bitcoin is currently trading for $37,766, representing a decrease of 0.42% compared to yesterday’s value. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has increased by 5.98% on the day, while LTC gained 0.33% of its value.

The crypto sector was mostly stable in the past 24 hours, as most cryptocurrencies were trying to find their top or retraced slightly. Bitcoin is currently trading for $37,766, representing a decrease of 0.42% compared to yesterday’s value. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has increased by 5.98% on the day, while LTC gained 0.33% of its value.

Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

FastSwap gained 244.13% in the past 24 hours, making it the most prominent daily crypto gainer by far. It is followed by HedgeTrade’s 225.26% and Capital.Finance’s 145.48% gain. On the other hand, Zugacoin lost 87.51%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by Roti Bank Coin’s loss of 77.52% and BitiPro Exchange Token’s loss of 74.35%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s market dominance has moved down slightly since our last report, with its value currently being 68.4%. This value represents a 0.6% difference to the downside when compared to the previously reported value.

Weekly Crypto Market Cap Chart

The cryptocurrency sector’s market capitalization has made negligible gains since we last reported, with its current value being $1.037 trillion. This represents a $5 billion increase when compared to our previous report.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

_______________________________________________________________________

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

Bitcoin has ended its uptrend by hitting a high of $40,112 yesterday, prompting a slight pullback. The pullback was, just like the price increase, happening on low volume and had the same intensity as well. The only differentiating factor was its direction. The move to the downside ended with BTC’s price hitting the 50-hour moving average and pushing up.

Bitcoin has a couple of strong resistance lines to the upside, one being the immediate 21-hour EMA, and then the $40,000 and ultimately $42,000 levels. On the other hand, its support is guarded by the 50-hour EMA and the $36,640 level.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart

Bitcoin’s technicals on the daily and monthly time-frame are overall bullish but have oscillators pointing to the sell-side. On the other hand, its 4-hour and weekly overviews are completely bullish.

BTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (1-hour Chart):

  • Price is between its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
  • Price is slightly below its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (50.19)
  • Volume is average

Key levels to the upside:          Key levels to the downside:

1: $40,000                             1: $36,640

2: $42,000                             2: $33,200

3: $43,600                             3: $30,640

Ethereum

Ethereum’s push to the upside has, just like with Bitcoin, seemingly ended. However, its pullback hasn’t started at all, as its price kept fluctuating between the recently $1,183.85 support level and the recent high. Trading in such a narrow range is not sustainable, and ETH will break either to the upside or downside very soon.

ETH traders can finally catch a nice trade as the cryptocurrency has (at least a bit) moved in a different manner than Bitcoin. Ether’s upside is guarded by the heavy resistance zone slightly below $1,300 as well as the $1,350 level. Its downside has smaller support levels, some of them being $1,211, $1,183.85, as well as the 21-hour and 50-hour EMAs.

ETH/USD 1-hour Chart

Ethereum’s technicals on the 4-hour and daily time-frames are overall bullish but have oscillators pointing to the sell-side. On the other hand, its weekly and monthly overviews are completely bullish.

ETH/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical Factors (1-hour Chart):

  • Price is above its 50-period and at its 21-period EMA
  • Price is near its top Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (61.37)
  • Volume is slightly below average

Key levels to the upside:          Key levels to the downside:

1: $1,255                               1: $1,211

2: $1,350                               2: $1,183.85

3: $1,419                               3: $1,060.5

Litecoin

Litecoin continued trading within its range, bound by $142.1 to the downside and $161.5 to the upside. Its price is now also between the 21-hour and the 50-hour EMAs, which have proven to be strong support and resistance levels, especially when paired with low trading volume.

Litecoin is currently mirroring the direction of Bitcoin’s moves, but with much less intensity. This makes it a very unattractive trading pair at the moment.

LTC/USD 1-hour Chart

Litecoin’s technicals on all time-frames are completely bullish and without any signs of neutrality.

LTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (1-hour Chart):

  • Its price is slightly above its 50-period EMA and at its 21-period EMA
  • Price at its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (53.10)
  • Volume is descending

Key levels to the upside:          Key levels to the downside:

1: $161.5                               1: $142.1

2: $181.3                               2: $128.42

3: $186.3                               3: $114.75

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 15 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – U.S. Retail sales in Focus!

On the news front, it’s going to be a busy Friday as the U.K. economy is due to release its GDP figures, which are expected to perform negatively, and this may add selling pressure on the Sterling. Later during the U.S. session, the U.S. retail sales may drive further price action in the dollar related pairs.

On the news front, it’s going to be a busy Friday as the U.K. economy is due to release its GDP figures, which are expected to perform negatively, and this may add selling pressure on the Sterling. Later during the U.S. session, the U.S. retail sales may drive further price action in the dollar related pairs.

On the news front, it’s going to be a busy Friday as the U.K. economy is due to release its GDP figures, which are expected to perform negatively, and this may add selling pressure on the Sterling. Later during the U.S. session, the U.S. retail sales may drive further price action in the dollar related pairs.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

During Friday’s early Asian trading hours, the EUR/USD currency pair failed to stop its overnight losing streak and still trades in a sideways manner around below the 1.2150 marks due to the risk-off market sentiment underpinned the U.S. dollar and contributed to the currency pair gains. Besides this, the selling bias around the currency pair could also be attributed to the ever-increasing COVID-19 and tougher lockdown restrictions in the U.K. and Europe, which raised further doubts over the European economies and pushed the shared currency down. The declines in the EUR/USD currency pair were unaffected by the latest positive announcement from U.S. President-elect Joe Biden regarding the stimulus package. Currently, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.2144 and consolidating in the range between the 1.2143 – 1.2163. Moving on, the market traders seem reluctant to place any strong position ahead of European Trade Balance and French Final CPI m/m.

Besides, the new wave of the coronavirus in the U.K. and resulting in tighter travel restrictions in Europe and the U.K. keep fueling the fears over slower economic recovery as back to back lockdown restrictions tend to have an instant negative effect on economic activities, which in turn, added bearish pressure around the currency pair. As per the latest report, France recently introduced a new nationwide lockdown, while German Chancellor Merkel reportedly wants to toughen the German lockdown. Apart from this, approximately 22M people are currently under strict lockdown conditions in China’s Hebei province. This happened right after the country posted the largest number of new Covid-19 infections in over 5-months on Wednesday. This, in turn, exerted downside eight on the market risk tone and contributed to U.S. dollar gains.

As in result, the broad-based U.S. dollar managed to stop its overnight losses and edged higher during the Asian session on the day amid risk-off market sentiment. However, the U.S. dollar bullish bias was rather unaffected by the worsening coronavirus (COVID-19) conditions in the U.S., or U.S. stimulus talks progress, which tend to undermine the U.S. currency. However, the gains in the U.S. dollar kept the currency pair lower. 

Looking forward, the market players will keep their eyes on the release of U.S. Core Retail Sales m/m along with Retail Sales m/m. The French Final CPI m/ma and Trade Balance will also be closely followed. Meanwhile, the UK GDP m/m and Goods Trade Balance are also expected to release later on the day. Across the ocean, the updates surrounding the Sino-US tussle and virus woes could not lose their importance on the day.


Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.2148      1.2178

1.2129      1.2189

1.2118      1.2208

Pivot Point: 1.2159

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

On Friday, the market’s technical side remains mostly unchanged as the EUR/USD continues to gain support at the 1.2136 level, and breaking of this can trigger an additional dip until 1.2105 and 1.2065 level. On the upside, the EUR/USD pair may find resistance at the 1.2170 level, and a bullish breakout of this level can extend the buying trend to 1.2220. The RSI and MACD have shifted their selling trends; therefore, we may see further sell-off upon the bearish breakout of 1.2136 level today.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD During Friday’s early Asian trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair failed to maintain its overnight bullish bias and drew some offers around the 1.3680 level mainly due to the downbeat market trading mood, which underpinned the U.S. dollar bullish and contributed to the currency pair losses. Besides this, the selling bias around the currency pair could also be associated with the ever-rising numbers of COVID-19 and tougher lockdown restrictions in the U.K., which keep raising doubts over the economic recovery. In contrast to this, the latest reports suggest that the Bank of England (BOE) will keep the interest rates unchanged at least until 2024 to avoid negative rates, which helped the currency pair limit its losses. Also capping the losses could be the latest optimism around the coronavirus better situation in the U.K. Currently, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3687 and consolidating in the range between the 1.3675 – 1.3699. Moving on, the market traders seem reluctant to place any strong position ahead of UK GDP m/m and Goods Trade Balance data.

Despite the ongoing optimism about a potential treatment/vaccine and U.S. coronavirus (COVID-19) stimulus bill, the market risk mood failed to stop its previous bearish performance and remained red amid growing market worries over the potential economic byproduct from the continuous rise in new COVID-19. The ongoing downfall around the equity market was completely sponsored by the fears of intensifying coronavirus (COVID-19) conditions throughout the world, which keeps fueling the doubts over the global economic recovery from COVID-19. 

Besides the virus woes, the reason for the bearish trading sentiment could also be associated with the long-lasting US-China tussle, which is continuously picking pace after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed new sanctions on Chinese officials and companies. All these events have been weighing on the market trading sentiment and were seen as major factors that kept the U.S. dollar prices higher.

As in result, the broad-based U.S. dollar managed to stop its overnight losses and edged higher during the Asian session on the day amid fresh risk-off market sentiment. However, the U.S. dollar gains were relatively unaffected by the worsening coronavirus (COVID-19) conditions in the U.S., or U.S. stimulus talks progress, which tend to undermine the U.S. currency. The U.S. President-elect Joe Biden recently revealed a much-anticipated coronavirus stimulus plan and promised to deliver $2,000 in stimulus cheques to Americans, infrastructure spending, social equity, and a potential minimum wage of $15 per hour. Unfortunately, Biden’s stimulus talk has failed to inject volatility in the forex markets so far. However, the gains in the U.S. dollar kept the currency pair lower. 


Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3555      1.3722

1.3445      1.3781

1.3387      1.3890

Pivot Point: 1.3613

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD pair also trades sideways between a narrow trading range of 1.3703 – 1.3632. On the higher side, a bullish breakout of 1.3703 level can extend the buying trend until the next resistance area of 1.3744 and 1.3786. Conversely, a bearish breakout of 1.3632 support level can extend the selling trend until 1.3550. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

During Friday’s early European trading session, the USD/JPY currency pair succeeded to maintain its bullish bias and to take rounds around above mid- 103.00 regions mainly due to the market’s downbeat mood and a strong rally in the U.S. bond yield, which kept the U.S. dollar bullish and contributed to the currency pair gains. However, the market trading sentiment was being pressured by the ever-rising numbers of COVID-19 and stricter lockdown restrictions throughout the world, which keeps fueling doubts over the global economy’s recovery. Meanwhile, the equity markets’ slumps were further bolstered by the renewed Sino-US tussle, which extended some support to the safe-haven Japanese yen and capped the upside for the USD/JPY currency pair. Conversely, the optimism about a potential treatment/vaccine and U.S. coronavirus (COVID-19) stimulus bill keeps challenging the market risk-off mood, which might change the direction for the USD/JPY currency pair. Currently, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 103.78 and consolidating in the range between 103.70 – 103.85.

The market trading sentiment failed to stop its early-day negative performance and remained pessimistic during the Asian trading session. The downfall was completely sponsored by the fears of intensifying coronavirus (COVID-19) conditions throughout the world, which keeps fueling the doubts over the global economic recovery from COVID-19. As per the latest report, France recently imposed a new nationwide lockdown, while German Chancellor Merkel is considering toughening the German lockdown. Apart from this, nearly 22M people are currently under strict lockdown conditions in China’s Hebei province. This happened right after the country posted the largest number of new Covid-19 infections in over 5-months on Wednesday. 

Besides the virus woes, the reason for the bearish trading sentiment could also be associated with the long-lasting US-China tussle, which is still not showing any sign of slowing down. The reason could be associated with the reports suggesting that the Trump administration is imposing sanctions on officials and companies for alleged misdeeds in the South China Sea and imposing an investment ban on 9 more Chinese firms with alleged ties to the Chinese military, including planemaker Comac and phone maker Xiaomi (OTC: XIACF) Corp. However, all these factors have been weighing on the market trading sentiment, which was seen as major factors that kept the U.S. dollar prices higher.

As in result, the broad-based U.S. dollar managed to extend its early-day gains and remained bullish on the day amid prevalent risk-off market sentiment. However, the gains in the U.S. dollar were rather unaffected by the U.S. stimulus progress, which tends to undermine the U.S. currency. It is worth noting that the U.S. President-elect Joe Biden promised to deliver $2,000 in stimulus cheques to Americans, infrastructure spending, social equity, and a potential minimum wage of $15 per hour. Unfortunately, this positive talk has failed to inject volatility in the forex markets so far. Notably, the gains in the U.S. dollar could be short-lived or temporary as the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the time to raise the interest rates is no time soon. However, the ongoing bullish bias around the greenback kept the currency pair higher.

Looking forward, the market players will keep their eyes on the release of U.S. Core Retail Sales m/m along with Retail Sales m/m. Apart from this, the French Final CPI m/ma and Trade Balance will also be closely followed. At home, the UK GDP m/m and Goods Trade Balance are also expected to release later on the day. Across the ocean, the updates surrounding the Sino-US tussle and virus woes could not lose their importance on the day.


Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

103.53      104.16

103.31      104.56

102.91      104.78

Pivot Point: 103.94

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The safe-haven currency pair USD/JPY slipped to trade at 104.054 level amid increased demand for safe-haven assets. The USD/JPY has formed an upward channel on the 4-hour timeframe, and it has the chance of leading the pair towards the next resistance level of 104.340 level. The 50 periods EMA supports the bullish trend, and we may have odds of taking a buying trade over the 103.570 level today. Good luck! 

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Jan 14 – Bitcoin Records Double-Digit Gains as it Passes $38K; Crypto Market in the Green

The crypto sector ended up almost completely in the green as Bitcoin recorded double-digit gains and pulled the rest of the market up. Bitcoin is currently trading for $38,222, representing an increase of 11.05% compared to yesterday’s value. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has increased by 9.00% on the day, while LTC gained 6.48% of its value.

The crypto sector ended up almost completely in the green as Bitcoin recorded double-digit gains and pulled the rest of the market up. Bitcoin is currently trading for $38,222, representing an increase of 11.05% compared to yesterday’s value. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has increased by 9.00% on the day, while LTC gained 6.48% of its value.

The crypto sector ended up almost completely in the green as Bitcoin recorded double-digit gains and pulled the rest of the market up. Bitcoin is currently trading for $38,222, representing an increase of 11.05% compared to yesterday’s value. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has increased by 9.00% on the day, while LTC gained 6.48% of its value.

Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

Simbcoin gained 366.72% in the past 24 hours, making it the most prominent daily crypto gainer by far. It is followed by Penta’s 229.88% and DEX’s 187.13% gain. On the other hand, Daiquilibrium lost 88.91%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by Dynamic Supply Tracker’s loss of 80.15% and Dynamic Supply’s loss of 63.83%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s market dominance has moved up slightly since our last report, with its value currently being 69%. This value represents a 0.4% difference to the upside when compared to the previously reported value.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The cryptocurrency sector’s market capitalization has made significant gains since we last reported, with its current value being $1.032 trillion. This represents an $88.3 billion increase when compared to our previous report.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

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Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

Bitcoin had started changing its price direction on Jan 13, when it started to slowly push towards the upside. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap managed to pass the $36,640 level and reach as high as $38,789 before pulling back slightly. This steady price increase was followed by average (or even slightly descending) volume.

The pullback BTC went into after hitting the recent high was quickly stopped by the 21-hour and 50-hour EMAs, changing the overall stance from an expected downturn to uncertainty.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart

Bitcoin’s technicals on the 4-hour, daily and monthly time-frame are overall bullish, with oscillators pointing to the sell-side. On the other hand, its weekly overview is completely bullish.

BTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (1-hour Chart):

  • Price is above both its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
  • Price is between its middle and top Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (62.38)
  • Volume is average

Key levels to the upside:          Key levels to the downside:

1: $40,000                             1: $36,640

2: $42,000                             2: $33,200

3: $43,600                             3: $30,640

Ethereum

Ethereum’s period of heavy correlation with Bitcoin has continued as its price slowly gained momentum towards the upside. Ether managed to push its price to the $1,183.85 level but couldn’t quite break it. This caused a minor pullback, which ended very quickly.

Ethereum’s 21-hour and 50-hour EMAs play a significant role in determining its price direction and should be considered by the traders at all times. On top of that, any ETH trader should pay attention to BTC’s movements, as those ultimately determine the price direction of most cryptocurrencies.

ETH/USD 1-hour Chart

Ethereum’s technicals on the daily and weekly time-frame are currently completely bullish, while its 4-hour and monthly overviews show some signs of neutrality.

ETH/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical Factors (1-hour Chart):

  • Price is above both its 50-period and its 21-period EMA
  • Price is near its top Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (64.19)
  • Volume is slightly below average

Key levels to the upside:          Key levels to the downside:

1: $1,183.85                          1: $1,060.5

2: $1,211                               2: $1,047.5

3: $1,226.5                            3: $992

Litecoin

While Litecoin did follow Bitcoin’s price direction, it did so with much less conviction and intensity. Its price managed to pass the $142.1 level to the upside and establish its price above it but failed to move into the upper half of the trading range bound by $142.1 to the downside and $161.5 to the upside.

Litecoin currently has a very nicely-built support zone, while its upside is quite open. If Bitcoin’s price remains the same, traders can expect LTC to try to push towards or even contest the $161.5 level.

LTC/USD 1-hour Chart

Litecoin’s technicals on the shorter time-frames (4-hour, daily, and weekly) show overall tilt to the buy-side with hints of neutrality. Its monthly time-frame, however, is completely bullish.

LTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (1-hour Chart):

  • Its price is slightly above its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
  • Price slightly above its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (57.08)
  • Volume is descending

Key levels to the upside:          Key levels to the downside:

1: $161.5                               1: $142.1

2: $181.3                               2: $128.42

3: $186.3                               3: $114.75

Categories
Forex Fundamental Analysis

GBP/CHF Global Macro Analysis – Part 3

GBP/CHF Exogenous Analysis The UK and Switzerland Current Account Differential A country’s current account shows the sum of its net exports, net secondary income, and net primary income. In this case, the current account differential is the difference between the UK’s current account balance and Switzerland. In international trade, when a country has a current […]

GBP/CHF Exogenous Analysis The UK and Switzerland Current Account Differential A country’s current account shows the sum of its net exports, net secondary income, and net primary income. In this case, the current account differential is the difference between the UK’s current account balance and Switzerland. In international trade, when a country has a current […]

GBP/CHF Exogenous Analysis

  1. The UK and Switzerland Current Account Differential

A country’s current account shows the sum of its net exports, net secondary income, and net primary income. In this case, the current account differential is the difference between the UK’s current account balance and Switzerland.

In international trade, when a country has a current account surplus, it means the value of its exports is higher than imports. Thus, its domestic currency is in higher demand in the forex market. Therefore, if the current account differential is positive, it implies that the UK has a higher current account than Switzerland. We can then expect that the price of the GBP/CHF pair will increase. Conversely, a negative differential would mean that Switzerland has a higher current account than the UK. In this case, the price of the GBP/CHF pair is expected to drop.

Switzerland had a current account surplus of $10.11 billion in the third quarter of 2020, while the UK had a $20.97 billion deficit. The current account differential is -$31.08 billion. Hence a score of -7.

  1. The interest rate differential between the UK and Switzerland

Interest rate differential is the swiss interest rate subtracted from the interest rate in the UK. Forex carry traders use a pair’s interest rate differential to establish whether to buy or short the pair. For GBP/CHF, if the interest rate differential is positive, it means that the UK’s interest rate is higher than in Switzerland. This makes traders and investors go long on the pair; hence, a bullish trend.

Conversely, if the interest rate differential is negative, it means that Switzerland’s interest rate is higher than in the UK. Thus, forex traders will short the GBP/CHF pair; hence, a bearish trend.

The Swiss National Bank has maintained the interest rate at -0.75%, while the UK’s interest rate is 0.1%. Therefore, the GBP/CHF interest rate differential is 0.85%. It has a score of 3.

  1. The differential in GDP growth rate between the UK and Switzerland

GDP growth rate differential is the difference between the economic growth in the UK and Switzerland. A negative differential means that the UK’s economy is expanding faster than that of Switzerland. Consequently, the GBP/CHF pair will adopt a bullish trend. Conversely, if the GDP growth rate differential is negative, the swiss economy is growing faster than that of the UK. Hence, the GBP/CHF pair will adopt a bearish trend.

The UK economy has contracted by 5.8% in the first three quarters of 2020, while the swiss economy has contracted by 1.5%. That means the GDP growth rate differential is -4.3%. We assign a score of -3.

Conclusion

Indicator Score Total State Comment
The UK and Switzerland Current Account Differential -7 10 A differential of – $31.08 Switzerland has a $10.11 billion current account surplus, while the UK has a deficit of $20.97 billion
The interest rate differential between the UK and Switzerland 3 10 0.85% The differential is expected to remain at 0.85% all through 2021
The differential in GDP growth rate between the UK and Switzerland -3 10 -4.30% Switzerland’s economy contracted by 1.5% in the first three quarters of 2020 while the UK by 5.8%
TOTAL SCORE -7

The exogenous analysis of the GBP/CHF pair has a cumulative score of -7. Thus, we can expect a short-term downtrend in the pair.

In technical analysis, GBP/CHF’s weekly price is seen bouncing off from the upper Bollinger band.

We hope you find this analysis informative. Let us know if you have any questions in the comments below. Cheers.

Categories
Forex Fundamental Analysis

GBP/CHF Global Macro Analysis – Part 1 & 2

Introduction The global macro analysis of the GBP/CHF currency pair will involve analysing endogenous and exogenous factors. Endogenous factors drive the domestic GDP growth in the UK and Switzerland. Exogenous factors influence the exchange rate for the currency pair. Ranking Scale The analysis will rank the endogenous and exogenous factors on a scale from -10 […]

Introduction The global macro analysis of the GBP/CHF currency pair will involve analysing endogenous and exogenous factors. Endogenous factors drive the domestic GDP growth in the UK and Switzerland. Exogenous factors influence the exchange rate for the currency pair. Ranking Scale The analysis will rank the endogenous and exogenous factors on a scale from -10 […]

Introduction

The global macro analysis of the GBP/CHF currency pair will involve analysing endogenous and exogenous factors. Endogenous factors drive the domestic GDP growth in the UK and Switzerland. Exogenous factors influence the exchange rate for the currency pair.

Ranking Scale

The analysis will rank the endogenous and exogenous factors on a scale from -10 to +10. The score for endogenous factors will be determined from a correlation analysis with the domestic GDP growth rate. If the score is negative, it means that the endogenous factor has led to the domestic currency depreciation. If positive, it has caused the appreciation of the domestic currency.

The exogenous analysis score is from a correlation analysis with the exchange rate for the GBP/CHF pair. When the score is negative, traders can expect the bearish trend for the pair. If positive, then the pair is expected to have a bullish trend.

Summary – GBP Endogenous Analysis

A -15 score implies that GBP has depreciated since the beginning of 2020.

Summary – CHF Endogenous Analysis

A score of 3 implies that CHF has partially appreciated since the beginning of this year.

Indicator Score Total State Comment
Switzerland Employment Rate -3 10 79.7% in Q3 2020 Slightly below the 80.4% recorded in Q1.
Switzerland Core Consumer Prices 4 10 100.82 points in November Inflation, as measured by the core consumer prices, rose by 0.28 points from January to November
Switzerland Manufacturing Production -2 10 4.7% decrease in Q3 2020 The YoY swiss manufacturing production is recovering
Switzerland Business Confidence 3 10 103.5 in November Swiss KOF Economic Barometer dropped in October and November. The majority of the consecutive drop was driven by private consumption
Switzerland Consumer Spending 5 10 Q3 spending was 91.929 billion CHF Q3 had the highest consumer spending compared to Q1 and Q2.
Switzerland Construction Output -2 10 A 0.4% drop in Q3 2020 Q3 output recovered from the 5% drop in Q2 but is still lower than the 3.1% growth in Q1
Switzerland Government Budget Value -2 10 An expected deficit of 2.2 billion CHF in 2020 Switzerland had a surplus of 8.1 billion CHF in 2019. The projected deficit is on account of aggressive government stimulus program and decreases in revenue due to COVID-19
TOTAL SCORE 3
  1. Switzerland Employment Rate

The Swiss employment rate measures the quarterly change in the percentage of the labour force that is employed. Changes in the number of people employed in the economy are a leading indicator of economic growth. When the economy is expanding, businesses create more job opportunities; hence, higher employment rate. Conversely, a shrinking economy leads to job cuts, which result in a lower employment rate.

In 2020 Q3, the Switzerland employment rate rose to 79.7% from the 6-year lows of 79.1%. Although the Q3 employment rate is lower than the 80.4% recorded in Q1, it shows that the Swiss economy is recovering from the economic shocks of COBID-19. The swiss employment rate scores -3.

  1. Switzerland Core Consumer Prices

Core consumer prices measure the rate of inflation by monitoring the price changes of only a select basket of goods and services. Consumer products with volatile prices are excluded. The rate of inflation is a leading indicator of economic growth. That’s because when inflation rises, it means domestic demand is on the rise, too, hence a higher GDP growth rate. Similarly, a decrease in the inflation rate means domestic demand is depressed, which may be followed by a contracting economy.

In November 2020, the swiss core consumer prices dropped to 100.82 points from 100.89 points in October. However, it is still higher than 100.54 points recorded in January. It has a score of 4.

  1. Switzerland Manufacturing Production

This measures the YoY change in the value of output from the swiss manufacturing sector. This sector plays a significant role in the Swiss economy. Therefore, growth in manufacturing production is accompanied by growth in the labour market and, consequently, the domestic economy’s expansion.

In Q3 of 2020, the YoY swiss manufacturing production dropped by 4.7%. That’s an improvement from the 9.6% drop in Q2. We assign a score of -2.

  1. Switzerland Business Confidence

The KOF Swiss Economic Institute compiles this index. It measures company managers’ optimism based on their perspective of the economy and the growth prospects of their businesses. The business that is surveyed are drawn from multiple sectors in the economy and contains 219 different variables.

In November 2020, the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer dropped to 103.5 from 106.3 in October. This marks the send consecutive month of a drop in the swiss business confidence. Notably, the drop in the index is primarily driven by the manufacturing sector and private consumption. Swiss business confidence has a score of 3.

  1. Switzerland Consumer Spending

This is the value of the total consumption by Swiss households. Domestic consumption is a primary driver of GDP growth. More so, it also an indicator of the performance in the labour market. With a higher rate of employment, disposable income increases, which increases consumer spending.

Swiss consumer spending increased to CHF 91.929 billion in the third quarter of 2020, which is the highest recorded compared to CHF 89.79 billion in Q1 and CHF 82.03 billion in Q2. It has a score of 5.

  1. Switzerland Construction Output

This indicator measures the percentage change in the value paid for construction work in Switzerland. The construction work includes building and engineering works done by public and private companies. Typically, when construction work increases, it is expected to be accompanied by an increase in the employment rate and economic growth.

In the third quarter of 2020, the YoY swiss construction output dropped by 0.4%. That is an improvement compared to the 5% drop in Q2 but still less than the 3.1% growth recorded in Q1. It has a score of -2.

  1. Switzerland General Government Budget Value

This represents the difference between the revenues received by the Swiss government and its expenditures. Government expenditure includes all transfer payments and purchases of goods and services. The general government budget value shows if the Swiss government has a surplus or a deficit. Too much deficit means that the economy is probably not responding to expansionary fiscal policies.

In 2019, the Swiss government had a budget surplus of CHF 8.097 billion. In 2020, the general government budget was expected to hit a deficit of CHF 2.2 billion. This deficit is primarily driven by a significant drop in revenue collection due to COVID-19. It has a score of -2.

In the very next article, you can find the Exogenous analysis of the GBP/CHF currency pair, so make sure to check that out. Cheers.

Categories
Forex Signals

AUD/USD Bullish Bias Continues – Symmetric Triangle Plays!

On Thursday, the AUD/USD trades bullish at 0.7767, and an upward violation of the 0.7778 mark is likely to extend the bullish trend until the next target of the 0.7818 mark. Whereas the support holds around the 0.7722 mark. The RSI and MACD are suggesting bullish sentiment; thus, we have begun a buying trade at the 0.7750 mark. 

On Thursday, the AUD/USD trades bullish at 0.7767, and an upward violation of the 0.7778 mark is likely to extend the bullish trend until the next target of the 0.7818 mark. Whereas the support holds around the 0.7722 mark. The RSI and MACD are suggesting bullish sentiment; thus, we have begun a buying trade at the 0.7750 mark. 

On Thursday, the AUD/USD trades bullish at 0.7767, and an upward violation of the 0.7778 mark is likely to extend the bullish trend until the next target of the 0.7818 mark. Whereas the support holds around the 0.7722 mark. The RSI and MACD are suggesting bullish sentiment; thus, we have begun a buying trade at the 0.7750 mark. 

The prevailing risk-off market mood also weighed on the risk-sensitive Australian dollar that ultimately added further pressure over the AUD/USD pair. On Tuesday, the daily death toll in the United States from the coronavirus hit a record of 4327 as the Trump administration attempted to fast-track the roll-out of vaccinations across the country. The US has the highest toll in the world from the coronavirus with a total of above 3lacs deaths, and it has also reported the highest number of infections with 22,959,610 confirmed cases of coronavirus. 

Despite lockdown and restrictive measures, these rising cases of coronavirus added to the risk-off market sentiment in the market and weighed on the risk perceived by Aussie that ultimately added pressure on the declining AUD/USD pair. Furthermore, the mixed signals from some of the US Federal Reserve members on how much longer policy can stay so accommodative also dragged the treasuries and supported the demand in US dollar that ultimately added in the losses of AUD/USD pair.


Entry Price – Sell 0.77599

Stop Loss – 0.77199

Take Profit – 0.77999

Risk to Reward – 1:1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.

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Categories
Forex Course

207. The Affects Of Stock Market On The Foreign Exchange Market

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

The impact of the stock market on the flow of the forex market is quite significant. In fact, the foreign exchange market reflects the performance of the stock market. For instance, when the US stock market with Dow Jones, or NASDAQ, S&P 500 on the upward showing gains, the similar is likely to happen to the USD pairs in the foreign exchange market.

Rising Stock Market’s Impact

When the stock market is booming, investors from around the world will run to invest their money in the rising stocks of the nation as they are looking to obtain higher returns on the investment. With more investors demanding the currency, its value will increase significantly.

This is because if the investors want to put the money on, say, the US market, they have to convert their local currency into the US dollar. This significantly raises the demand for the dollar, hence makes the forex market perform better.

Falling Stock Market’s Impact

If the stock market is performing badly, the investors are likely to take their money out. This means that the investors will convert the currency back into the domestic ones or invest in some other country or asset. Subsequently, this will decrease the value of the concerned currency. This is something that all economies do in terms of investments.

Decision Making Based On Stock Market’s Performance 

Foreign exchange traders can leverage this information to assess the situation and predict the market. If you assess the stock of a particular currency and witness that they are moving up, then evaluate it against the currency, you will be able to make a prediction.

An increasing stock market will be influencing a boost in the value of the currency of the country. So you can base your trading decision on the same. At the same time, when the stock market is performing inadequately, you can sell the currency of that country. This is because the value of the currency will be falling in the market.

This correlation between the stock market and the foreign market can alter based on the global financial marketplace condition. The financial landscape is interconnected to different elements. Policies of central banks, political events, changes in the environment, everything affects how the trades are performed worldwide. The reason why stock influence forex is because stock includes companies that drive the economy of the country.

We hope you find this course article informative. Please let us know if you have any questions in the comments below. Cheers.

[wp_quiz id=”101824″]
Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 14 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – U.S. Fed Chair Powell Speech in Focus! 

The eyes will remain on the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts due during the late European session on the data front. Alongside, the U.S. Unemployment Claims and Fed Chair Powell Speaks will remain in highlights today.

The eyes will remain on the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts due during the late European session on the data front. Alongside, the U.S. Unemployment Claims and Fed Chair Powell Speaks will remain in highlights today.

The eyes will remain on the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts due during the late European session on the data front. Alongside, the U.S. Unemployment Claims and Fed Chair Powell Speaks will remain in highlights today.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD closed at 1.21577 after placing a high of 1.22226 and a low of 1.21396. The U.S. dollar recovered on Wednesday and weighed on EUR/USD pair that resulted in losses for another day. On Tuesday, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell nearly seven basis points from a 10-month high hit on the day following strong demand at a $38 billion 10-year auction and comments from the U.S. Federal Reserve officials reiterating that monetary policy was going to stay supportive. 

The sharp rise in the U.S. yields resulted from the bond-market sell-off triggered by the rising hopes for massive stimulus measures largely funded by government borrowing after the Democrats claimed the Senate in Georgia runoff elections. 

At 12:00 GMT, the German WPI for December raised to 0.6% against the expected 0.1% and supported Euro on the data front. At 14:00 GMT, the Italian Industrial Production for November dropped to -1.4% against the expected -0.4% and weighed on Euro. At 15:00 GMT, the Industrial Production for November also raised to 2.5% against the expected 0.2% and supported Euro. From the U.S. side, at 18:30 GMT, the Consumer Price Index for December remained unchanged at 0.4%. The Core CPI for December also came in line with the forecasts of 0.1%. The European Central bank President Christine Lagarde called on Wednesday for global regulation of Bitcoin, saying that the digital currency had been used for money laundering activities in some instances and that any loopholes needed to be closed. The largely anonymous nature of cryptocurrencies has raised the concerns that they could be used for money laundering and other legal activities.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard said that unemployment for the lowest-paid workers in the U.S. was above 20%, and it underscores the importance of policy help for the economy. Brainard said that the figure indicated how uneven the recovery has seen since efforts to control the coronavirus pandemic resulted in the biggest quarterly GDP drop since the Great Depression. She also said that the level highlighted the need for accommodative policy, but she stated that it was too early to say how long Fed’s measures will stay in place. These comments from Brainard added strength to the U.S. dollar and added losses in EUR/USD pair on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, the losses in EUR/USD pair were extended after the German Chancellor Angela Merkel wanted to extend the current lockdown in Europe’s largest economy through the end of March. Extending the lockdown will hurt the Eurozone’s economy that could drag it to a double-dip recession, and it weighed on the local currency Euro that ultimately added weight on EUR/USD pair on Wednesday. Furthermore, On Wednesday, the House voted in favor of impeachment against Donald Trump, and he became the first U.S. President to be impeached twice. The House voted to impeach Trump on incitement of insurrection after the President incited a violent crowd to storm the Capitol last week, ultimately resulting in five deaths. These developments kept the safe-haven greenback under demand and added further losses in EUR/USD pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.2148       1.2178

1.2129      1.2189

1.2118      1.2208

Pivot Point: 1.2159

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is gaining support at the 1.2136 level, and violation of this can cause further dip until 1.2105 and 1.2065 level. On the higher side, the EUR/USD pair may face resistance at the 1.2170 level, and a bullish breakout of this level can prolong the buying trend until 1.2220. The RSI and MACD have shifted their selling trends; therefore, we may see further sell-off upon the bearish breakout of the 1.2136 level today.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD closed at 1.36364 after placing a high of 1.37010 and a low of 1.36115. The GBP/USD pair dropped on Wednesday after British Pound started trimming its previous daily gains amid the U.S. dollar recovery. The greenback recovered strength, and the DXY rose back to the area of the daily high near 90.30. The gains were modest as Wall Street trades mixed and despite the decline in the U.S. treasury. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to 1.09%, its lowest since January 8. 

After the third national lockdown in the U.K. was announced last week, there had been speculations that the Bank of England (BoE) could introduce negative interest rates to help support the economy, which proved negative for the British Pound. However, following Tuesday’s comments from Bank of Governor Andrew Bailey, which ended the speculation, Sterling has since rallied and continued to find support from markets. Furthermore, the British Pound also rose as Home Secretary Priti Patel addressed the nation and said that the current lockdown restrictions were strict enough, claiming investors who had been worried that tougher restrictions could have been announced to tackle rising infection rates. 

The prospects of new restrictions added weight to the local currency, and it was further supported by the comments from the Scottish Minister, who announced further restrictions. Nicola Sturgeon urged people to minimize their interaction and keep in mind that the virus was there with everyone. He said that people should assume that they have the virus or any person they were in contact with and urged the public to prevent it from spreading by following the rules and SOPs. The rising number of coronavirus cases and imposed lockdowns in the nation added weight to the local currency Sterling, which ultimately added the GBP/USD pair’s losses.

The U.S. Inflation rate and the rising U.S. Treasury yields helped and supported the U.S. dollar supported due to its safe-haven status from the rising number of coronavirus cases U.S. fiscal stimulus speculations. The rising demand for the U.S. dollar added in the losses of the British Pound to the U.S. Dollar exchange rate and dragged it down on Wednesday.

For Cable investors, any coronavirus developments will remain in focus for the end of the week, with success in the rollout of vaccines seen as British Pound positive. Sterling investors will also be watching Friday’s U.K. growth data, which could weaken the GBP/USD exchange rate. 

The British Pound investors will also be looking to Federal Reserve officials over the coming days, with Fed chair Jerome Powell speaking and indicating that U.S. monetary policy will be kept loose and the U.S. dollar is likely to struggle further. Greenback investors will also be focusing on Friday’s initial jobless claims that could also disappoint the traders.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3555      1.3722

1.3445      1.3781

1.3387      1.3890

Pivot Point: 1.3613

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading at 1.3692, and it has closed a Doji candle on the four hourly timeframes, and it may extend a bearish correction in the GBP/USD pair. On the lower side, the support stays at 1.3636 and resistance at 1.3692 and 1.3720 today. The GBP/USD pair’s 10 & 20 periods EMA is supporting bullish bias in the Sterling. The MACD and RSI support bullish bias; therefore, bullish bias dominates over the 1.3646 level today.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair closed at 103.869 after placing a high of 103.995 and a low of 103.523. The pair refreshed daily tops on Wednesday, reversed an intraday dip near a one-week low, and recovered a quarter of the previous day’s losses. The U.S. Dollar demand rose on Wednesday amid the retracement slide from a 10-month high hit of U.S. treasury yield on a 10-year note that ultimately added to the USD/JPY pair’s upward momentum. The U.S. dollar was also high onboard amid the risk-off market sentiment on Wednesday due to increased infection cases and imposed lockdowns worldwide.

The Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell nearly seven basis points from a 10-month high hit on Tuesday following strong demand at a $38 billion 10-year auction. The comments from U.S. Federal Reserve officials stating that monetary policy would stay supportive also helped the U.S. dollar regain its strength and support the USD/JPY pair’s gains on Wednesday.

On the data front, at 04:50 GMT, the M2 Money Stock for the year from Japan remained flat at 9.2%. At 10:58 GMT, the Prelim Machine Tool Orders from Japan raised in December to 8.7% against November’s 8.6%. . From the U.S. side, at 18:30 GMT, the Consumer Price Index for December remained unaffected at 0.4%. The Core CPI for December also came in line with the projections of 0.1%.

The Kansas City Fed President Esther George has said that she does not expect the Fed to react if inflation exceeds the central bank’s 2% goal. Earlier in the month, the Democrats claimed the Senate after the runoff elections in Georgia that raised hopes for larger stimulus measures funded by the government borrowing. This resulted in a bond-market sell-off that drove U.S. yields sharply higher, helped stall the U.S. dollar’s decline, and supported the USD/JPY pair’s upward trend. 

The U.S. Federal Reserve officials expect a quick economic recovery if coronavirus vaccinations continue to gather pace; however, that could leave markets estimating about the outlook for the monetary policy by Central Bank. Federal Reserve might not recourse to faster than expected loosening of coronavirus stimulus efforts. Such a move from the Fed could put pressure on it to raise interest rates faster than expected, and this would help the U.S. dollar gather strength and support the rising USD/JPY pair. Moreover, on Tuesday, the daily U.S. coronavirus death-toll hit a record of 4327 as the Trump administration moved to rush the rollout of vaccinations across the country. During the holiday season around January 8, the rising death-toll was first seen in the U.S. with 4000 deaths, and it has reached 4327 now.

The total number of deaths in the United States from coronavirus has reached 382,624, and it is the biggest death-toll in the world. The U.S. also has the highest number of coronavirus cases globally, with 22,959,610 confirmed cases of coronavirus. Despite lockdown and restrictive measures, these rising coronavirus cases added weight on the U.S. dollar and capped further gains in the USD/JPY pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

103.53      104.16

103.31      104.56

102.91      104.78

Pivot Point: 103.94

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The safe-haven currency pair USD/JPY slipped to trade at 104.054 level amid increased demand for safe-haven assets. The USD/JPY has formed an upward channel on the 4-hour timeframe, and it has the chance of leading the pair towards the next resistance level of 104.340 level. The 50 periods EMA supports the bullish trend, and we may have odds of taking a buying trade over the 103.570 level today. Good luck! 

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Jan 13 – Polkadot Outperforms the Market as it Heads Towards $10; Crypto Sector in the Red

The crypto sector ended up mostly trading in the red as cryptocurrencies such as Ether, Litcoin, and Bitcoin Cash dropped over 5% on the day. Polkadot was one of the few cryptocurrencies that managed to score double-digit gains and outperform the market by a large margin. However, this is purely due to fundamental reasons (immense support coming from the Binance exchange) rather than technicals.

The crypto sector ended up mostly trading in the red as cryptocurrencies such as Ether, Litcoin, and Bitcoin Cash dropped over 5% on the day. Polkadot was one of the few cryptocurrencies that managed to score double-digit gains and outperform the market by a large margin. However, this is purely due to fundamental reasons (immense support coming from the Binance exchange) rather than technicals.

The crypto sector ended up mostly trading in the red as cryptocurrencies such as Ether, Litcoin, and Bitcoin Cash dropped over 5% on the day. Polkadot was one of the few cryptocurrencies that managed to score double-digit gains and outperform the market by a large margin. However, this is purely due to fundamental reasons (immense support coming from the Binance exchange) rather than technicals.

Bitcoin is currently trading for $34,223, representing a decrease of 3.03% compared to yesterday’s value. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has decreased by 4.09% on the day, while LTC lost 3.07% of its value.

Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

Metacoin gained 103.61% in the past 24 hours, making it the most prominent daily crypto gainer by far. It is followed by OVR’s 98.72% and Latamcash’s 92.88% gain. On the other hand, Amun Bitcoin 3x Daily Short lost 75.44%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by Zugacoin’s loss of 73.82% and KIMCHI.finance’s loss of 66.82%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s market dominance has moved down very slightly since our last report, with its value currently being 68.6%. This value represents a 0.1% difference to the downside than the value it had when we last reported.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The cryptocurrency sector’s capitalization has decreased since we last reported, with its current value being $948.23 trillion. This represents a $17.92 billion decrease when compared to our previous report.

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What happened in the past 24 hours?

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Technical analysis

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin spent the day hovering between the $33,320 support level and the $36,640 resistance level, with its price mostly being in the bottom part of the range. The price even breached the support level and went past it on several occasions, but it always returned back up. While it currently seems stable and on decreasing volume, Bitcoin might experience a stronger pullback and an attempt to retest $30,000 once again.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart

Bitcoin’s technicals on the daily and monthly time-frame bullish, but contain some neutrality alongside the bullishness. However, its weekly overview is completely bullish, while its 4-hour chart is completely bearish.

BTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (1-hour Chart):

  • Price is between its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
  • Price is near its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (50.24)
  • Volume is descending

Key levels to the upside:          Key levels to the downside:

1: $36,640                             1: $33,200

2: $40,000                             2: $30,640

3: $42,000                             3: $27,960

Ethereum

Ethereum has traded almost exactly like Bitcoin in the past 24 hours, both in terms of price direction and intensity. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap is currently in an extremely narrow and unsustainable range, bound by the Fib retracement level of $1,060 to the upside and a 2017 Fib retracement sitting at $1,047.

Ethereum’s 21-hour and 50-hour moving averages play a significant role in determining price direction and should be considered by the traders at all times.

ETH/USD 1-hour Chart

Ethereum’s technicals on the daily and monthly time-frame bullish, but contain some neutrality alongside the bullishness. However, its weekly overview is completely bullish, while its 4-hour chart is completely bearish.

ETH/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical Factors (1-hour Chart):

  • Price is between its 50-period and its 21-period EMA
  • Price is at its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (48.60)
  • Volume is descending

Key levels to the upside:          Key levels to the downside:

1: $1,129                               1: $1,060.5

2: $1,211                               2: $1,047.5

3: $1,226.5                             3: $992

Litecoin

Litecoin has been pretty stable in the past 24 hours, with its price trading within a range bound by $128.4 to the downside and $142.1 to the upside. These support/resistance levels, alongside the 21-hour and 50-hour EMAs, will determine Litecoin’s future price intensity, while Bitcoin’s next move will most likely determine its price direction.

LTC/USD 1-hour Chart

Litecoin’s technicals on the daily and monthly time-frame are completely bullish. However, its weekly overview shows slightly less bullishness, while its 4-hour chart is almost completely bearish.

LTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (1-hour Chart):

  • Its price is between its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
  • Price slightly below its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (51.37)
  • Volume is descending

Key levels to the upside:          Key levels to the downside:

1: $142.1                               1: $128.42

2: $161.5                               2: $114.75

3: $181.3                               3: $98

Categories
Forex Signals

AUD/USD Symmetric Triangle Pattern – Potential Sell Trade!

The AUD/USD closed at 0.77738 after placing a high of 0.77772 and a low of 0.76865. The AUD/USD pair recovered on Tuesday after the US dollar came under fresh pressure due to the US’s rising political risks.

The AUD/USD closed at 0.77738 after placing a high of 0.77772 and a low of 0.76865. The AUD/USD pair recovered on Tuesday after the US dollar came under fresh pressure due to the US’s rising political risks.

The AUD/USD closed at 0.77738 after placing a high of 0.77772 and a low of 0.76865. The AUD/USD pair recovered on Tuesday after the US dollar came under fresh pressure due to the US’s rising political risks.
The risk-sensitive Aussie gained traction on Tuesday despite the rising risk-off mood in the market. The risk sentiment suffered on Tuesday as the FBI told that it had received information indicating armed protests were being planned at all 50 state capitols and Washington. These comments also weighed on the US dollar that ultimately added to the AUD/USD pair’s rising prices on Tuesday.

On the other hand, the greenback was weak during Tuesday as the US Dollar Index that measures the value of the US dollar against the basket of six major currencies fell to 90.20 level and supported the upward momentum in AUD/USD pair. The risk-off market sentiment was also supported by the rising number of coronavirus cases and the increased tougher restrictions across the world to curb coronavirus spread. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yields were up by almost 2% on Tuesday, suggesting that DXY’s downside will remain limited if yields continued to rise.

On the data front, there was no macroeconomic data to be released from Australia. While From the US side, at 16:00 GMT, the NFIB Small Business Index for December fell to 95.9 against the expected 100.1 and weighed on the US dollar that ultimately added in the gains of AUD/USD pair. At 20:00 GMT, the JOLTS Job Openings for November rose to 6.53M against the anticipated 6.42M and supported the US dollar that capped further gains in AUD/USD pair. At 20:02 GMT, the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism came in line with the anticipations of 50.1.

From China, the M2 Money Supply for the year dropped to 10.1% against the forecasted 10.7% and weighed on China-proxy Aussie that capped further upside in AUD/USD pair. The New Loans from China raised to 1260B against the forecasted 1250B and supported China-proxy Aussie that added AUD/USD pair gains.

On Tuesday, Donald Trump’s administration said that it gave millions of coronavirus vaccine doses that it had been keeping back for second shots and encouraged states to offer them to all Americans above age 65 or with persistent health conditions. These comments added in the risk sentiment and supported risk perceived Aussie that ultimately added the AUD/USD pair’s upward momentum.


Daily Technical Levels
Support Resistance
0.7650 0.7756
0.7605 0.7817
0.7544 0.7862
Pivot point: 0.7711

The AUD/USD pair jas formed a symmetric triangle pattern, supporting a selling bias in the pair. On the 2 hour timeframe, the Aussie is likely to find support at the 0.7722 level along with a resistance level of 0.7776. The MACD and RSI support selling bias, whereas the 10 & 20 periods EMA are suggesting selling bias. The AUD/USD is showing a bearish crossover on the two-hourly timeframes, supporting a selling bias. Let’s consider taking a sell trade below 0.7760 today. Good luck!

Categories
Forex Signals

EUR/GBP Violates Descending Triangle Pattern – Sell Signal In Play! 

The EUR/GBP pair is trading with a bearish bias at a 0.8930 level, having violated the support level of 0.8940. The Euro seems to get weaker as the European countries have tightened measures to fight coronavirus after a brief relaxation over the Christmas and New Year period. They have re-imposed lockdowns, closed shops and offices, and introduced laws to make it easier for governments to impose further restrictions to battle the pandemic. 

The EUR/GBP pair is trading with a bearish bias at a 0.8930 level, having violated the support level of 0.8940. The Euro seems to get weaker as the European countries have tightened measures to fight coronavirus after a brief relaxation over the Christmas and New Year period. They have re-imposed lockdowns, closed shops and offices, and introduced laws to make it easier for governments to impose further restrictions to battle the pandemic. 

The EUR/GBP pair is trading with a bearish bias at a 0.8930 level, having violated the support level of 0.8940. The Euro seems to get weaker as the European countries have tightened measures to fight coronavirus after a brief relaxation over the Christmas and New Year period. They have re-imposed lockdowns, closed shops and offices, and introduced laws to make it easier for governments to impose further restrictions to battle the pandemic. 

These new lockdown measures across Europe to fight the second wave of coronavirus raised the fears of a double-dip recession in the Eurozone that added weight on the single currency Euro and capped further upside in the EUR/USD pair on Tuesday.

The Sterling is gaining strength as Bailey said that there were many issues with cutting interest rates below zero, and such a move could hurt banks. After these comments from Bailey, the British Pound gained traction and raised that ultimately pushed the EUR/GBP pair lower.

Meanwhile, The Deputy Governor of Bank of England, Ben Broadbent, said on Tuesday that Britain’s coronavirus pandemic was likely to have a limited long-run impact on inflation and has led to less short-term downward pressure on prices than might have been expected from the slump in headline economic output.

On the technical side, the EUR/GBP has violated the support level of 0.8940, and now it’s likely to extend the selling trend until it reaches 0.8873. The MACD and RSI are in support of selling; thus, we have entered the selling trade in the EUR/GBP pair. Here’s a trading plan…


Entry Price – Sell 0.89138

Stop Loss – 0.89538

Take Profit – 0.88738

Risk to Reward – 1:1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

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Categories
Forex Fundamental Analysis

GBP/JPY Global Macro Analysis – Part 3

GBP/JPY Exogenous Analysis The United Kingdom and Japan Current Account Differential The current account data is the most comprehensive measure of a country’s participation in international trade. It is the sum of net exports, net factor income, and net transfer payments. Remember that in the forex market, the value of a country’s fluctuates depending on […]

GBP/JPY Exogenous Analysis The United Kingdom and Japan Current Account Differential The current account data is the most comprehensive measure of a country’s participation in international trade. It is the sum of net exports, net factor income, and net transfer payments. Remember that in the forex market, the value of a country’s fluctuates depending on […]

GBP/JPY Exogenous Analysis

  • The United Kingdom and Japan Current Account Differential

The current account data is the most comprehensive measure of a country’s participation in international trade. It is the sum of net exports, net factor income, and net transfer payments. Remember that in the forex market, the value of a country’s fluctuates depending on its demand. Therefore, when a country has a current surplus account, it means that the demand for its currency is higher, and vice versa.

In this case, the current account differential is the difference between the UK and Japan’s current account balance. If the current account differential is positive, it means that the GBP will appreciate more than JPY hence a bullish GBP/JPY. Conversely, if the current account differential is negative, JPY will appreciate faster than the GBP hence a bearish trend for GBP/JPY.

In Q3 2020, Japan had a current account surplus of $15.4 billion while the UK had a $20.97 billion deficit. Thus, the current account differential between GBP and JPY is – $36.37 billion. Thus, the UK and Japan current account differential have a score of -3.

In the forex market, the interest rate is one of the most closely monitored economic indicators. Suffice to say, traders and investors monitor every other domestic economic indicator to predict the interest rate policy changes. The interest rate differential for the GBP/JPY pair is the difference between the UK’s interest rate and that in Japan.

If the differential is positive, traders and investors can receive better returns by selling the JPY and buying the GBP, hence, bullish GBP/JPY. Conversely, if the interest rate differential is negative, currency traders would prefer to sell the GBP and buy JPY hence, the bearish GBP/JPY pair.

In 2020, the BOE cut interest rates from 0.75% to 0.1%, while the BOJ has maintained an interest rate of -0.1%. Therefore, the GBP/JPY interest rate differential is 0.2%. It has a score of 4.

  • The differential in GDP growth rate between the UK and Japan

The GDP growth rate differential measures the difference between the UK and Japan’s average annual growth rate. This is an effective way of comparing two economies since all economies vary in size and composition.

When the GDP growth rate differential is positive, it means that the UK economy has expanded more than Japan. Hence, the GBP/JPY will be bullish. Conversely, if the differential is negative, Japan’s economy has expanded faster than the UK’s. Hence, the GBP/JPY pair will be bearish.

In the first three quarters of 2020, the UK economy has contracted by 5.8% while Japan contracted by 3.5%. The GDP growth rate differential is -2.3%. Thus, we assign a score of -3.

Conclusion

Indicator Score Total State Comment
The UK and Japan Current Account Differential -3 10 A differential of – $36.37 The UK has a current account deficit of $20.97 billion, while Japan has a surplus of $15.4 billion. This is expected to continue to widen as both economies recover from the pandemic
The interest rate differential between the UK and Japan 4 10 0.20% Both the BOJ and the BOE have no plans to change their monetary policies in the foreseeable future. This means the differential will remain at 0.2% in the short-term
The differential in GDP growth rate between the UK and Japan -3 10 -2.30% The UK economy contracted more than the Japanese economy. As economic recovery progresses, this differential could change
TOTAL SCORE -2

The cumulative score for the exogenous factors is -2. That means that the GBP/JPY pair is set on a bearish trend in the short-term.

Technical analysis of the pair shows the weekly chart attempting to break below the middle Bollinger band.

Categories
Forex Fundamental Analysis

GBP/JPY Global Macro Analysis – Part 2

JPY Endogenous Analysis Summary An overall score of -13 implies that this currency (JPY) has depreciated since the beginning of this year. Indicator Score Total State Comment Japan Employment Rate -4 10 60.4% in October 2020 The Japanese labor market has shed about 820,000 jobs between January and October 2020 Japan Core Consumer Prices -1 […]

JPY Endogenous Analysis Summary An overall score of -13 implies that this currency (JPY) has depreciated since the beginning of this year. Indicator Score Total State Comment Japan Employment Rate -4 10 60.4% in October 2020 The Japanese labor market has shed about 820,000 jobs between January and October 2020 Japan Core Consumer Prices -1 […]

JPY Endogenous Analysis

Summary

An overall score of -13 implies that this currency (JPY) has depreciated since the beginning of this year.

Indicator Score Total State Comment
Japan Employment Rate -4 10 60.4% in October 2020 The Japanese labor market has shed about 820,000 jobs between January and October 2020
Japan Core Consumer Prices -1 10 101.2 points in November 2020 The index has dropped marginally by 0.8 points in the first 11 months
Japan Manufacturing Production 2 10 3.1% drop in October The decrease in YoY manufacturing production is slowing down
Japan  Business Confidence -2 10 Q4 reading was -10 Businesses are growing increasingly optimistic
Japan Consumer Spending -2 10 Was ¥280.8 trillion in Q3 2020 The increase in Q3 expenditure by households shows that the economy is steadily recovering
Japan Construction Industry Activity -2 10 YoY drop of 6.9% in July 2020 The July drop was the second-worst recorded in over ten years
Japan Government Budget Value -4 10 the budget deficit of ¥308414 in Q2 2020 This is the worst deficit in 20 years. It’s expected to improve as the economy goes back to normal
TOTAL SCORE -13
  • Japan Employment Rate

This indicator shows the number of Japanese nationals employed as a percentage of the entire Japanese working-age population. With this indicator, we can track the Japanese economy’s performance since employment corresponds to the expansion and contraction of the economy.

In October 2020, the Japan employment rate rose to 60.4% from 60.3% in September. Although Japan’s employment rate is higher than in January, the labor market has lost about 820,000 jobs since January. We assign a score of -4.

  • Japan Core Consumer Prices

Core consumer prices measure the inflation rate in Japan based on a select basket of goods. The core consumer prices do not include goods and services with volatile prices. Typically, when inflation rises, it implies that the economy is expanding and the labor market is growing. Conversely, when the index drops, it means that the labor market is shrinking.

In November 2020, Japan Core Consumer Prices dropped to 101.2 points from 101.3 in October. Since January, the index has shed 0.8 points. Thus, it scores a -1.

  • Japan Manufacturing Production

This indicator measures the percentage change in the value of the output in the manufacturing sector. Since the Japanese economy is highly reliant on the manufacturing sector, changes in this indicator can be considered a leading indicator of economic growth.

In October 2020, the YoY manufacturing production in Japan decreased by 3.1% compared to the 9% decrease recorded in September. The October decrease is the slowest since February.  We assign a score of 2.

  • Japan Business Confidence

In Japan, the business confidence index results from a survey of about 1100 large manufacturers with a capital of at least ¥1 billion. The survey evaluates the current industry trends, business conditions within the company and the industry, and expectations for the next quarter and year. The sentiment in Japanese businesses is ranked with an index of a scale from -100 to +100. The negative index shows pessimism, while a positive index shows optimism.

In Q4 of 2020, the Bank of Japan’s Tankan business sentiment index increased to -10 from -27 in Q3. This improvement shows that the economy is potentially recovering from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, it is still lower than the -8 registered in Q1. Thus, we assign a score of -2.

  • Japan Consumer Spending

It tracks the quarterly value of expenditure by households. In Japan, the consumption expenditure accounts for both the supply-side and demand-side. The supply-side from the survey of family income, while the demand-side is from the expenditure survey. The weighted average of both these estimates represents the final consumption expenditure.

In Q3 2020, the consumer spending in Japan rose to ¥280.8 trillion from ¥268.2 trillion in Q2. However, it is still lower than the consumer spending recorded in Q1. Japan consumer spending scores -4.

  • Japan Construction Industry Activity

This index tracks the YoY changes in the construction industry in Japan. It shows the changes in companies’ monetary value of construction work and billed to the clients. Note that in Japan, the construction industry accounts for about 6% of the total industrial activity. Thus, the construction output index can be a leading indicator of the entire industrial activity. More so, since it is a tertiary industry, it can signal longer-term changes in the GDP.

In July 2020, Japan’s YoY construction output dropped by 6.9%. This drop is the second-worst in over ten years. The worst was recorded in June at -7.9%. The Japan construction industry activity scores -2.

  • Japan Government Budget Value

In Japan, the government budget value evaluates the difference between government revenues and expenditure. This is meant to determine whether there is a government budget surplus or deficit. A budget surplus arises when revenues exceed the expenditure, while a deficit occurs when government expenditure is more than revenues.

In Q2 of 2020, Japan has a government budget deficit of ¥308414. This is the worst deficit recorded in over two decades. Thus, the Japan Government Budget Value has a score of -4.

In the upcoming article, you can find the Exogenous analysis of the GBP/JPY currency pair where we have forecasted its price movements. All the best.

Categories
Forex Fundamental Analysis

GBP/JPY Global Macro Analysis – Part 1

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

The GBP/JPY pair’s global macro analysis interrogates the endogenous factors that drive the GDP growth in the UK and Japan. The analysis will also cover exogenous factors that affect the exchange rate between the GBP and the JPY.

Ranking Scale

The analysis will use a sliding scale from -10 to +10 to rank the endogenous and exogenous factors’ impact. Endogenous factors impact the value of the domestic currency. Thus, when it is negative, it means that the domestic currency has depreciated. When positive, it means that the domestic currency has increased in value during the period under review. The ranking of the endogenous factors is based on correlation analysis with the domestic GDP.

On the other hand, a positive ranking for the exogenous factors means that the GBP/JPY pair’s price will increase. Conversely, when negative, it means that the price of the pair will drop. This ranking is derived from correlation analysis between the exogenous factors and the GBP/JPY exchange rate fluctuation.

GBP Endogenous Analysis – Summary

A score of -15 implies that GBP has depreciated since the beginning of this year.

Indicator Score Total State Comment
UK Employment Rate -5 10 75.2% in September 2020 Dropped by 1.4% from January to September. The labor market has shed around 551,000 jobs
UK Core Consumer Prices 2 10 109.82 points in November 2020 The UK core consumer prices have increased by 1.82 points since January. Shows that the demand in the domestic economy has not been depressed
UK Factory Orders 3 10 Was -25 in November The CBI trends orders are improving. The -25 recorded in November was the highest since February
UK Business Confidence -2 10 Neutral in Q4 of 2020 UK businesses are still pessimistic about the future operating environment.
UK Consumer Spending -5 10 Was £304.5 billion in Q3 2020 Q3 household expenditure shows domestic demand is recovering from the lows of Q2. Consumer spending is still below the pre-pandemic Q1 levels
UK Construction Output -2 10 YoY drop of 7.5% in October 2020 The construction output is improving, which implies that the UK economy is steadily recovering from the economic disruptions of the pandemic
UK Government Budget Value -6 10 UK public sector net borrowing deficit was £22.3 billion The growing budget deficit is a result of increased government expenditure in the wake of COVID-19 pandemic. Also worsened by reduced revenues due to business disruption
TOTAL SCORE -15
  • United Kingdom Employment Rate

The employment rate shows the percentage of the UK labor market that is actively and gainfully employed. It is a comprehensive representation of the growth in the labor market. Note that the changes in the employment rate measure the changes in the economic activities of a country.

In September 2020, the UK employment rate dropped to 75.2% from 75.3% in August. From January to September 2020, the employment rate has dropped by 1.4%, equivalent to about 551,000 job loss. The UK employment rate scores -5.

  • United Kingdom Core Consumer Prices

This index measures the change in the rate of inflation in the UK by tracking price changes of specific consumer products. The index calculation excludes items whose prices tend to be highly volatile, such as fuel and energy.

In November 2020, the core consumer prices in the UK dropped to 109.82 from 109.9 in October. The index has increased by 1.82 points since January. The UK core consumer prices score 2.

  • United Kingdom Factory Orders

In the UK, the CBI Industrial Trends Orders tracks orders from about 500 companies in 38 sectors of the manufacturing industry. The survey’s components include domestic goods orders, exports, inventory, output prices, and expectations of future investments and output levels. The surveyed manufacturers respond whether the current conditions are normal, above, or below normal. This is used as a leading indicator of industrial production.

In December 2020, the UK CBI trends orders were -25, 15 points up from -40 in November. This is the highest level since February 2020 but still lower than -18 in January. We assign a score of 3.

  • United Kingdom Business Confidence

This index gauges the optimism of businesses operating in the UK. A survey is conducted on 400 small, medium, and large companies to determine their optimism. The survey covers exports, output levels and prices, capacity, order books, inventory, competitiveness in the domestic market,  innovation, and training. The business sentiment is then ranked from -100 to +100, with 0 showing neutrality.

In the fourth quarter of 2020, the UK business confidence was neutral at 0, a slight change from -1 in Q3. It is, however, still below the 23 recorded in Q1. We assign a score of -2.

  • United Kingdom Consumer Spending

Expenditure by households contributes to a significant proportion of the domestic GDP. In the UK, this index tracks quarterly changes in the amount of money spent by households and Non-profit institutions serving households (NPISH). Note that when the economy is performing well, consumer spending is high. Conversely, a poorly performing economy corresponds to low consumer spending.

In Q3 2020, consumer spending in the UK rose to £304.5 billion from £258.3 billion in Q2. However, the Q3 expenditure is still lower than Q1. The UK consumer spending scores -5.

  • United Kingdom Construction Output

This economic indicator tracks the yearly change in the value of work done in the construction sector. The amount of money charged by construction companies in the UK is based on a sample of 8000 companies that employ over 100 employees. Note that in the UK, the construction sector contributes about 6.4% of the GDP.

In October 2020, the UK’s YoY construction output dropped by 7.5%, up for the 10% drop recorded in September. This marks the smallest decrease in the UK’s construction output since the pre-pandemic period. We assign a score of -2.

  • United Kingdom Government Budget Value

This indicator tracks the changes between the government’s revenues and expenditure. When the revenue exceeds the expenditure, it is a surplus and indicates that the economy is expanding. When the deficit is increasing, it means that the government is spending much more than it receives. This poses a threat of overburdening the economy with future debt repayment obligations.

In October 2020, the UK public sector net borrowing deficit was £22.3 billion. This is an improvement from the deficit of £28.6 billion in September. In January 2020, the UK had a surplus of £9.6 billion. Thus, we assign a score of -6.

In the next article, we have discussed the endogenous analysis of JPY currency to see how it has performed in the year’s due course. Make sure to check that out. Cheers.