GBP/CAD Exogenous Analysis
The UK and Canada Current Account Differential
The current account differential between the UK and Canada can determine if the GBP/CAD pair is bullish or bearish. If the differential is positive, it means that the UK has a higher current account balance than Canada. This would imply that the GBP is in higher demand in the forex market than the CAD; hence, it is a bullish trend for the pair. Conversely, if the current account differential is negative, it means that the UK has a lesser current balance than Canada. It would imply that the GBP has a lower demand than the CAD in the forex market; hence, a bearish trend for the pair.
In Q3 of 2020, the UK had a current account deficit of $20.97 billion while Canada had a $5.83 billion deficit. Thus, the current account differential is -$15.14 billion. We assign a score of -2.
The interest rate differential between the UK and Canada
The interest rate differential is the difference between the Bank of England’s interest rate and that by the Bank of Canada. In the forex market, carry traders use the interest rate differential to decide whether to buy or short a currency pair. When the interest rate differential is positive, traders will earn the differential by going long. If the differential is negative, traders can earn the differential by shorting the currency pair.
Therefore, if the GBP/CAD pair’s interest rate differential is positive, the pair is bound to adopt a bullish trend. Conversely, if negative, the pair is bound to be bearish.
In 2020, the interest rate in the UK dropped from 0.75% to 0.1%. In Canada, the BOC cut interest rates from 1.75% to 0.25%. Therefore, the interest rate differential is -0.15%. The interest rate differential between the UK and Canada has a score of -1.
The differential in GDP growth rate between the UK and Canada
This differential measures the changes in the growth rate between the two economies. It is a preferred method of comparison since economies are of different sizes. Naturally, the economy with a higher GDP growth rate will have its currency appreciate more. Therefore, if the GDP growth rate differential is positive, it means that the GBP/CAD pair is bullish. If negative, then the pair is bearish.
During the first three quarters of 2020, the UK economy has contracted by 5.8%, while the Canadian economy has contracted by 3.3%. This makes the GDP growth rate differential -2.5%. Hence, a score of -1.
Conclusion
| Indicator | Score | Total | State | Comment |
| The UK and Canada Current Account Differential | -2 | 10 | A differential of – $15.14 | The UK has a higher deficit than Canada |
| The interest rate differential between the UK and Canada | -1 | 10 | -0.15% | Expected to remain at -0.15% until either economy have recovered |
| The differential in GDP growth rate between the UK and Canada | -1 | 10 | 3.30% | The Canadian economy contracted at a slower pace than the UK economy |
| TOTAL SCORE | -4 |
The cumulative score for the exogenous factors is -4. This means that we can expect the GBP/CAD pair to trade in a downtrend in the short term.
However, technical analysis shows the pair adopting a bullish trend with the weekly chart trading above the 200-period MA. More so, the pair is seen bouncing off the lower Bollinger band. Keep an eye on the near-term changes in the exogenous factors.
