Forex Elliott Wave Forex Market Analysis

USDJPY: Be Ready for this Flag Pattern Breakout

The USDJPY pair presents the breakout of a flag pattern corresponding to the third wave of Subminuette degree identified in green, triggered after the flag pattern breakout observed in Wednesday 26th session. Examine with us what’s next for the coming trading sessions.

Our Previous Analysis

Our previous Elliott wave analysis of the USDJPY pair commented on the complex corrective formation developed by USDJPY since the price topped at 111.715 in March 2020. Also, we recognized the internal structure as an incomplete triple-three pattern. 

As illustrated in the previous daily chart released in late December 2020, the USDJPY pair moved in an incomplete wave (c) of Minuette degree labeled in blue. Likewise, the lower degree sequence revealed the progress in an ending diagonal pattern, suggesting the corrective formation’s exhaustion, which belongs to wave B of Minor degree in green.

Likewise, the breakout of the trendline that connects the end of waves ii and iv of Subminuette degree labeled in green would confirm the end of wave B of Minor degree. In this context, once the USDJPY surpassed the upper-line of the ending diagonal pattern, the pair confirmed the end of wave B and the beginning of wave C of the same degree.

What’s Next?

The USDJPY surpassing the upper guideline of the ending diagonal pattern on January 07th confirmed the completion of wave B of Minor degree and the beginning of wave C of the same degree.

In this context, the first breakout the USDJPY formed in early January corresponds to wave i in green. Likewise, the consolidation sequence recognized as a flag pattern corresponds to wave ii. Both waves belong to wave C of Minor degree labeled in green.

The last breakout developed by the USDJPY activates wave iii that belongs to wave C in green. Its potential advance could strike the psychological barrier of level 106.

Summarizing, the mid-term Elliott wave view for the USDJPY pair suggests that the price action may advance in its wave iii of Subminuette degree, which belongs to the first segment of the internal structure of wave C of Minor degree identified in green. The upward wave iii in progress could exceed the psychological barrier of 106. It even could strike the supply zone between 106.561 and 107.050. Finally, the bullish scenario’s invalidation level is at the beginning of wave i in green, at 102.591.

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The Fundamentals of the Japanese Yen (JPY)

In terms of popularity, the Japanese yen (sign: ¥, code: JPY; meaning: circle, round object) ranks third among the eight most traded currencies in the world, only preceded by the USD and the EUR. This currency forms some of the most traded crosses as well, such as the USD/JPY currency pair that holds an 11% volume of all trades worldwide. As such, the JPY is also one of the most liquid currencies and enjoys the status of a reserved currency in many countries around the globe.  

Created in the late 19th century by the Meiji dynasty, the currency was part of the government’s goal of unifying Japan and modernizing the country’s economy. From the historical perspective, the JPY is not as old as the GBP, yet it has also undergone some tumultuous periods to this day. In particular, during the time of the Second World War, the Japanese official currency lost its value, which resembles what Germany had experienced in World War I. After the war ended, the YPY was pegged to the USD in the reconstruction period, as many European currencies before the EUR were (except for the GBP). Most currencies have at some point in history been tied to the USD especially because the fiat money’s worth is only of its perceived value since there are no hard assets to back it up. 

Therefore, due to the post-war state of the JPY, the ability to exchange Japanese money for the USD generated some stability to the currency, which is what all other currencies pegged to the USD aimed for. At the time 360 JPY was enough to buy only 1 USD, yet it still transformed the JPY’s instability into a more stable state, which is probably why this fixed relation between the two currencies lasted for approximately 28 years. Upon the US leaving the gold standard in 1973, the JPY was left to trade freely. This led to the Japanese economy booming in the 80s and early 90s, which not only recovered but also became the top manufacturing country on the planet. Since 2009, yen coins of 1, 5, 10, 50, 100, and 500 have been used, whereas there are currently 1,000, 2,000, 5,000, and 10,000 yen notes in circulation.

Bank of Japan

The central bank, called the Bank of Japan, has governed the currency since 1882. The bank consists of 30 members, whereas its Monetary Policy Board numbers 9 members who are responsible for managing interest rates. The governor represents the bank in public and has the tie-breaking vote. The current Governor, Mr. Haruhiko Kuroda, was appointed in 2013, replacing a conservative predecessor, Mr. Masaaki Shirakawa. The previous governor’s rule was marked by great dissatisfaction among the citizens due to the general lack of action, quantitative easing, and ideas to improve the economy and the currency since the 90s’ downturn. In the early 1990s, the Japanese stock market, Nikkei (or Nikkei 225) was 41,000 JPY. This bubble burst down to approximately 6—7000 JPY, and the market traded between 7 and 10 thousand JPY for more than 20 years after. Only after 2013 did Nikkei start to consistently exceed these values to now stand at a much higher level of above 20 thousand JPY (see the chart below) pointing towards tangible economic growth brought upon by the new plan. When the current (31st) governor was appointed, he was promised to bring about a change and propel the Japanese economy away from the several-decade-long sleep.

The investment of trillions of Japanese yen into the country’s economy, finally setting off inflation, jump-started the currency and the growth. The chart below also reflects how the financial crisis of 2007/2008 affected the Japanese market when a number of countries were running toward safe-haven currencies such as the JPY, which will be further discussed later in the text. Now, in the midst of the global pandemic, the Bank of Japan again took action to safeguard against the impact of the COVID-19 on the country and its economy. As of March, when we could see some larger drops not only in Japan but in other countries across the globe as well, the Japanese central bank enhanced monetary easing, implementing several measures to stabilize the economy. These measures have proved to be successful so far, with the country’s financial system maintaining the overall stability and functioning of financial institutions. Under the circumstances, the highest increase in the last 30 years was registered for bank lending in May, along with a significant increase in CP and corporate bond issuances as well as a decrease in the tension in financial markets.

Carry Trade

Between 2002 and 2007, the world experienced tremendous changes in economies, such as the one brought up by the expansion of the internet. Then in 2001, the S&P 500 value dropped by approximately 22% and the world economies seemed slightly unstable for a while. After 2004 and until 2007, there was a great boom in the economy, supported by massive moves in real estate as well as exorbitant prices of oil and gasoline. The JPY, however, weakened during the same time, making Japan the sole country unable to reflect the overall growth. Everyone seemed to be more interested in taking risks and, at the same time, great expansion was noticeable in Canada, Australia, and New Zealand due to their production of resources such as gold, silver, and copper, whose prices then started to increase.

The trade between China and Australia was also a good example of how the exchange of the commodities connected two economies: Australian mining supported the Chinese infrastructure investments before the Olympics. During that time, the price of some commodities, e.g. copper, doubled and inflation was particularly high in countries such as Australia, whose central bank increased interest rates to almost 10%. Japan, however, whose economy was stagnant at the time, had its interest rates at 0.5%. This led to investors displaying the tendency to borrow low-yielding currencies and sell high-yielding ones, which only weakened the former. Currency pairs such as the AUD/JPY cross were interesting not for the sake of trading, but for the benefit of the swap.

Since one currency’s rate is 10% and one goes short on the currency that pays 0.5%, the swap rate would actually be 8% for the year with fees removed, which is an amazing return. As many found this to be a great opportunity, the massive interest in this pair caused the AUD to appreciate, and so did the CAD and the NZD, whereas the JPY’s value decreased and kept going down as a result. Once this entire bubble burst, the stock market did crash, but currencies suffered even more with an unbelievable AUD/JPY 55% plunge over a few months. Many JPY-based pairs reflected massive drops at the time which largely contrasted the previous growth.

The years between 2004 and 2007 seemed to be focused on building and, finally, 1 trillion USD was estimated to have been staked only in short yen carry trades. Many say that such movements in the currency market were unprecedented when traders were able to get around 500 pips In AUD/JPY trades in a single day. Carry trades are not single currency phenomena as they occur when there is a high-yielding currency and a low-yielding one, leading to trades lasting longer than expected because of mass interest in such pairs.

Key Economic Reports

Japanese economic reports seem to have had little impact on the movement of the country’s official currency in the past and there generally appears to be little interest in the economic numbers of Japan. While the US’s economic reports end up affecting all currencies, some other countries, e.g. Australia, do not have such a comprehensive, widespread influence. As opposed to Australia, however, Japan’s reports barely even influence its own currency. Even the Bank of Japan’s Outlook Reports and the meetings they hold in April and October prove to have little effect on the JPY.

Despite the fact that the currency does not undergo massive or meaningful changes upon the release of these documents, traders should still be educated on some basic economic numbers that might have some impact on the currency. Some of the common reports that might concern forex traders are GDP, Retail Sales, Tankan Manufacturing Survey, and core CPI. Among these, the Tankan Manufacturing Survey, which is essentially a quarterly survey revealing the manufacturing strength of the Japanese companies, may be the most important document of all. In July this year, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the report reflected the biggest low since the last quarter of 2009 when, for example, we could see this plunge in the currencies market as well (see the two charts above and below).

The Most Traded Pairs

The most-traded JPY crosses are the following: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, CHF/ JPY, AUD/ JPY, NZD/JPY, and CAD/JPY. The USD/JPY currency pair equals 11% of all currency trades across the world, preceded by the 37% volume of the USD/EUR cross. JPY crosses, unlike the USD/based pairs, for example, are specific in that the JPY is always the recessive currency, which implies that once paired, all other currencies are against the JPY. This allows traders to easily assess relative strength and weakness in all JPY crosses, which is often much more difficult with other currency pairs that do not involve the JPY. Just by looking at the currency pairs listed in the first sentence of this paragraph, we can immediately tell that the GBP/JPY is the strongest pair, whereas the AUD/JPY is the weakest, due to the other two currencies’ relation to the JPY.

How to Trade the JPY

The JPY is primarily seen as one of the safe-haven currencies due to its stable, exporting economy backed up by the possession of major reserves and trade surplus. Some other countries, such as the US and the UK, still seem to be battling trade deficit difficulties despite having strong (or stronger) currencies than Japan. The fact that Japan has more exports than imports influences its economy and brings more money into the country, preserving the status of the JPY as one of the favored reserve currencies. This stability of the country is believed to make the JPY withstand economic stress even better than the USD for example. Japanese interest rates have historically been some of the lowest ones in comparison to other central banks, currently standing at -0.10%. An interesting fact about the Japanese currency concerns the fact that inflation has never truly been a major challenge for Japan, whereas deflation has. As discussed above, the extensive exportation has led to a massive trade surplus, and even the current Governor’s goal was to surpass this issue and raise inflation to at least 2%. 

Current Events

This currency has been moving downwards for a while now although it has not broken down yet. Some professional traders suggest that, should there be stimulation from the equities market in the form of a push upwards, the JPY could respond with a descending movement. The currency has been subject to volatility in previous weeks and a number of JPY-based crosses have come near major technical levels, putting longer-term trends at risk. Nonetheless, few actual breaks have been made with ranges remaining mostly intact. Should volatility still arise, traders may easily witness some price swings. 

Just prior to the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, the Japanese economy experienced in 2019 the biggest plunge since the second quarter of 2014 of 6.3%. Following this biggest GDP contraction in more than five years, the previously discussed Tankan survey revealed the first drop into the negative after many years. The volatility peaked in March, yet has slowly drifted lower since in particular to the world central banks’ decision to inject great amounts of liquidity into the financial system. Geopolitical tensions and a slow global economic recovery may still affect the JPY in the following months. The country’s neighbor’s strained trade relation with the US may lead to a sustained risk aversion period, driving the JPY higher against other major currencies.

In order to help with the impact of the virus, the Japanese government put into effect a massive stimulus plan, amounting to the value of 20% of the nation’s economic output. With the estimated 60% debt issuance in 2020, the Bank of Japan may need to increase its purchases of Japanese Government Bonds due to a lack of global demand so as to be able to keep implementing yield curve control effectively. The interest rates are still way under the mandated 2%, yet the accommodative approach of the Japanese government and Bank of Japan may help the JPY withstand periods of volatility in the future and stop the currency from declining. Whenever there was any instability in the past, traders naturally diverted to the currencies with the greatest liquidity such as the JPY, which appears to still have the potential to keep the safe-haven status.

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208. Using Yuppy (EUR/JPY) As A Leading Indicator For Stocks!


EUR/JPY is among the most popular pairs in the international foreign exchange market. In fact, it indicated approximately 3% of the overall daily transaction. Moreover, it is indicated as the seventh-highest traded currency pairs in the forex market. Both traders and investors can leverage the potentials of the EUR/JPY currency pair as they both carry a high degree of volatility.

Best Time To Trade in EUR/JPY

Although you can trade EUR/JPY at any time of the day, to leverage the most benefit, you must trade when the pair is most volatile. Between 7:30 and 15:30 is the time when the currency pair trade is the busiest.

Factors Impacting EUR/JPY Rate

When it comes to making the most lucrative trade with this pair, it is important to understand what influences its rate.

Prominence Of EUR

Like many modern currencies, the prominent factors that impact the Euro price flow are financial, political, and economic. For instance, many trade decisions regarding the Euro are backed by the European Central Bank’s monthly reports.

These reports can influence the fluctuations in the Euro’s rates, and traders and investors promptly leverage the details as quickly as they are released to determine the flow of the Euro rates.

In economic terms, news releases focusing on employment can also play an important role in the fluctuations of euro rates. These details are easily accessible and offer vital insights into the economic condition of the Euro and the movement of Euro prices.

The Prominence of JPY

Japan’s economy has more factors that play an important role in determining the flow of currency. The basic health of the economy will play a significant role in involving a high rate of export and import trading. One uncommon factor that impacts the flow of the country’s currency is situations such as a natural disaster.

The Right Way To Trade EUR/JPY

In terms of speculative trading, CFDs provide traders and investors with easy access to a plethora of markets. They like to transact with CFDs as derivatives trading implies that buying the actual currency is unnecessary. When trading, investors and traders like to harness technical analysis and assess the EUR/JPY chart. This is done to determine the relationship of the pairing and forecast the highs and lows of the markets.

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Forex Fundamental Analysis

GBP/JPY Global Macro Analysis – Part 2

JPY Endogenous Analysis


An overall score of -13 implies that this currency (JPY) has depreciated since the beginning of this year.

Indicator Score Total State Comment
Japan Employment Rate -4 10 60.4% in October 2020 The Japanese labor market has shed about 820,000 jobs between January and October 2020
Japan Core Consumer Prices -1 10 101.2 points in November 2020 The index has dropped marginally by 0.8 points in the first 11 months
Japan Manufacturing Production 2 10 3.1% drop in October The decrease in YoY manufacturing production is slowing down
Japan  Business Confidence -2 10 Q4 reading was -10 Businesses are growing increasingly optimistic
Japan Consumer Spending -2 10 Was ¥280.8 trillion in Q3 2020 The increase in Q3 expenditure by households shows that the economy is steadily recovering
Japan Construction Industry Activity -2 10 YoY drop of 6.9% in July 2020 The July drop was the second-worst recorded in over ten years
Japan Government Budget Value -4 10 the budget deficit of ¥308414 in Q2 2020 This is the worst deficit in 20 years. It’s expected to improve as the economy goes back to normal
  • Japan Employment Rate

This indicator shows the number of Japanese nationals employed as a percentage of the entire Japanese working-age population. With this indicator, we can track the Japanese economy’s performance since employment corresponds to the expansion and contraction of the economy.

In October 2020, the Japan employment rate rose to 60.4% from 60.3% in September. Although Japan’s employment rate is higher than in January, the labor market has lost about 820,000 jobs since January. We assign a score of -4.

  • Japan Core Consumer Prices

Core consumer prices measure the inflation rate in Japan based on a select basket of goods. The core consumer prices do not include goods and services with volatile prices. Typically, when inflation rises, it implies that the economy is expanding and the labor market is growing. Conversely, when the index drops, it means that the labor market is shrinking.

In November 2020, Japan Core Consumer Prices dropped to 101.2 points from 101.3 in October. Since January, the index has shed 0.8 points. Thus, it scores a -1.

  • Japan Manufacturing Production

This indicator measures the percentage change in the value of the output in the manufacturing sector. Since the Japanese economy is highly reliant on the manufacturing sector, changes in this indicator can be considered a leading indicator of economic growth.

In October 2020, the YoY manufacturing production in Japan decreased by 3.1% compared to the 9% decrease recorded in September. The October decrease is the slowest since February.  We assign a score of 2.

  • Japan Business Confidence

In Japan, the business confidence index results from a survey of about 1100 large manufacturers with a capital of at least ¥1 billion. The survey evaluates the current industry trends, business conditions within the company and the industry, and expectations for the next quarter and year. The sentiment in Japanese businesses is ranked with an index of a scale from -100 to +100. The negative index shows pessimism, while a positive index shows optimism.

In Q4 of 2020, the Bank of Japan’s Tankan business sentiment index increased to -10 from -27 in Q3. This improvement shows that the economy is potentially recovering from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, it is still lower than the -8 registered in Q1. Thus, we assign a score of -2.

  • Japan Consumer Spending

It tracks the quarterly value of expenditure by households. In Japan, the consumption expenditure accounts for both the supply-side and demand-side. The supply-side from the survey of family income, while the demand-side is from the expenditure survey. The weighted average of both these estimates represents the final consumption expenditure.

In Q3 2020, the consumer spending in Japan rose to ¥280.8 trillion from ¥268.2 trillion in Q2. However, it is still lower than the consumer spending recorded in Q1. Japan consumer spending scores -4.

  • Japan Construction Industry Activity

This index tracks the YoY changes in the construction industry in Japan. It shows the changes in companies’ monetary value of construction work and billed to the clients. Note that in Japan, the construction industry accounts for about 6% of the total industrial activity. Thus, the construction output index can be a leading indicator of the entire industrial activity. More so, since it is a tertiary industry, it can signal longer-term changes in the GDP.

In July 2020, Japan’s YoY construction output dropped by 6.9%. This drop is the second-worst in over ten years. The worst was recorded in June at -7.9%. The Japan construction industry activity scores -2.

  • Japan Government Budget Value

In Japan, the government budget value evaluates the difference between government revenues and expenditure. This is meant to determine whether there is a government budget surplus or deficit. A budget surplus arises when revenues exceed the expenditure, while a deficit occurs when government expenditure is more than revenues.

In Q2 of 2020, Japan has a government budget deficit of ¥308414. This is the worst deficit recorded in over two decades. Thus, the Japan Government Budget Value has a score of -4.

In the upcoming article, you can find the Exogenous analysis of the GBP/JPY currency pair where we have forecasted its price movements. All the best.

Forex Fundamental Analysis

GBP/JPY Global Macro Analysis – Part 1


The GBP/JPY pair’s global macro analysis interrogates the endogenous factors that drive the GDP growth in the UK and Japan. The analysis will also cover exogenous factors that affect the exchange rate between the GBP and the JPY.

Ranking Scale

The analysis will use a sliding scale from -10 to +10 to rank the endogenous and exogenous factors’ impact. Endogenous factors impact the value of the domestic currency. Thus, when it is negative, it means that the domestic currency has depreciated. When positive, it means that the domestic currency has increased in value during the period under review. The ranking of the endogenous factors is based on correlation analysis with the domestic GDP.

On the other hand, a positive ranking for the exogenous factors means that the GBP/JPY pair’s price will increase. Conversely, when negative, it means that the price of the pair will drop. This ranking is derived from correlation analysis between the exogenous factors and the GBP/JPY exchange rate fluctuation.

GBP Endogenous Analysis – Summary

A score of -15 implies that GBP has depreciated since the beginning of this year.

Indicator Score Total State Comment
UK Employment Rate -5 10 75.2% in September 2020 Dropped by 1.4% from January to September. The labor market has shed around 551,000 jobs
UK Core Consumer Prices 2 10 109.82 points in November 2020 The UK core consumer prices have increased by 1.82 points since January. Shows that the demand in the domestic economy has not been depressed
UK Factory Orders 3 10 Was -25 in November The CBI trends orders are improving. The -25 recorded in November was the highest since February
UK Business Confidence -2 10 Neutral in Q4 of 2020 UK businesses are still pessimistic about the future operating environment.
UK Consumer Spending -5 10 Was £304.5 billion in Q3 2020 Q3 household expenditure shows domestic demand is recovering from the lows of Q2. Consumer spending is still below the pre-pandemic Q1 levels
UK Construction Output -2 10 YoY drop of 7.5% in October 2020 The construction output is improving, which implies that the UK economy is steadily recovering from the economic disruptions of the pandemic
UK Government Budget Value -6 10 UK public sector net borrowing deficit was £22.3 billion The growing budget deficit is a result of increased government expenditure in the wake of COVID-19 pandemic. Also worsened by reduced revenues due to business disruption
  • United Kingdom Employment Rate

The employment rate shows the percentage of the UK labor market that is actively and gainfully employed. It is a comprehensive representation of the growth in the labor market. Note that the changes in the employment rate measure the changes in the economic activities of a country.

In September 2020, the UK employment rate dropped to 75.2% from 75.3% in August. From January to September 2020, the employment rate has dropped by 1.4%, equivalent to about 551,000 job loss. The UK employment rate scores -5.

  • United Kingdom Core Consumer Prices

This index measures the change in the rate of inflation in the UK by tracking price changes of specific consumer products. The index calculation excludes items whose prices tend to be highly volatile, such as fuel and energy.

In November 2020, the core consumer prices in the UK dropped to 109.82 from 109.9 in October. The index has increased by 1.82 points since January. The UK core consumer prices score 2.

  • United Kingdom Factory Orders

In the UK, the CBI Industrial Trends Orders tracks orders from about 500 companies in 38 sectors of the manufacturing industry. The survey’s components include domestic goods orders, exports, inventory, output prices, and expectations of future investments and output levels. The surveyed manufacturers respond whether the current conditions are normal, above, or below normal. This is used as a leading indicator of industrial production.

In December 2020, the UK CBI trends orders were -25, 15 points up from -40 in November. This is the highest level since February 2020 but still lower than -18 in January. We assign a score of 3.

  • United Kingdom Business Confidence

This index gauges the optimism of businesses operating in the UK. A survey is conducted on 400 small, medium, and large companies to determine their optimism. The survey covers exports, output levels and prices, capacity, order books, inventory, competitiveness in the domestic market,  innovation, and training. The business sentiment is then ranked from -100 to +100, with 0 showing neutrality.

In the fourth quarter of 2020, the UK business confidence was neutral at 0, a slight change from -1 in Q3. It is, however, still below the 23 recorded in Q1. We assign a score of -2.

  • United Kingdom Consumer Spending

Expenditure by households contributes to a significant proportion of the domestic GDP. In the UK, this index tracks quarterly changes in the amount of money spent by households and Non-profit institutions serving households (NPISH). Note that when the economy is performing well, consumer spending is high. Conversely, a poorly performing economy corresponds to low consumer spending.

In Q3 2020, consumer spending in the UK rose to £304.5 billion from £258.3 billion in Q2. However, the Q3 expenditure is still lower than Q1. The UK consumer spending scores -5.

  • United Kingdom Construction Output

This economic indicator tracks the yearly change in the value of work done in the construction sector. The amount of money charged by construction companies in the UK is based on a sample of 8000 companies that employ over 100 employees. Note that in the UK, the construction sector contributes about 6.4% of the GDP.

In October 2020, the UK’s YoY construction output dropped by 7.5%, up for the 10% drop recorded in September. This marks the smallest decrease in the UK’s construction output since the pre-pandemic period. We assign a score of -2.

  • United Kingdom Government Budget Value

This indicator tracks the changes between the government’s revenues and expenditure. When the revenue exceeds the expenditure, it is a surplus and indicates that the economy is expanding. When the deficit is increasing, it means that the government is spending much more than it receives. This poses a threat of overburdening the economy with future debt repayment obligations.

In October 2020, the UK public sector net borrowing deficit was £22.3 billion. This is an improvement from the deficit of £28.6 billion in September. In January 2020, the UK had a surplus of £9.6 billion. Thus, we assign a score of -6.

In the next article, we have discussed the endogenous analysis of JPY currency to see how it has performed in the year’s due course. Make sure to check that out. Cheers.

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Trading The JPY/HUF Forex Exotic Currency Pair


In the JPY/HUF currency pair, JPY represents the currency of Japan. On the other hand, HUF is the Hungarian Forint. This currency pair represents the value of Hungarian Forints (quote currency) per Yen (base currency). This pair can be represented as 1 JPY per X HUF. For example, if the value of this currency pair is at 2.91 (CMP), then about 2.9 HUF is required to purchase one JPY.

JPY/HUF Specification


If we want to determine the spread, we should subtract the Bid price and the Ask price. Spread is a trading charge that the broker takes as soon as we open a trade. This value changes with the change of the execution model.

Spread on ECN: 13 pips | Spread on STP: 18 pips


Every broker takes a trading fee from a trader. The process of taking the fee is almost the same as every broker in the world. Note that the fee is only applicable to ECN accounts.


Slippage happens when the execution price and open trade price are not the same. The volatility and the broker’s execution speed are the main cause of slippage.

Trading Range in JPYHUF

The trading range is the representation of the minimum, average, and maximum volatility of this pair on the 1H, 4H, 1D, 1W, and 1M timeframe. Using these values, we can assess our profit/loss margin of trade. Hence, this proves to be a helpful risk management tool for all types of traders.

Procedure to assess Pip Ranges

  1. Add the ATR indicator to your chart
  2. Set the period to 1
  3. Add a 200-period SMA to this indicator
  4. Shrink the chart so you can assess a large time period
  5. Select your desired timeframe
  6. Measure the floor level and set this value as the min
  7. Measure the level of the 200-period SMA and set this as the average
  8. Measure the peak levels and set this as Max.

JPYHUF Cost as a Percent of the Trading Range

With the volatility values from the above table, we can determine the chance of cost with the change of volatility. We have got the ratio between total cost and the volatility values and converted them into percentages.

ECN Model Account 

Spread = 13 | Slippage = 5 | Trading fee = 8

Total cost = Spread + Slippage + Trading Fee

= 13 + 5 + 8

Total cost = 26

STP Model Account

Spread = 18 | Slippage = 5 | Trading fee = 0

Total cost = Spread + Slippage + Trading Fee

= 18 + 5 + 0

Total cost = 23 

The Ideal way to trade the JPYHUF

As per the above data, we can say that JPYHUF is not an extremely volatile pair. Therefore, traders from every level can trade with it and make money. The average cost per trade in the H1 timeframe is at 41.86%, which decreases to almost 1% in a monthly timeframe. As a trader, it is often hard to trade in a timeframe like weekly or monthly, as it is very time-consuming. Therefore, sticking to the hourly to daily timeframe is recommended for traders to minimize the trading cost.

Another way to reduce the cost is to place orders as ‘limit’ and ‘stop’ instead of ‘market’ orders. In limit orders, slippage will not be in the calculation of the total costs. Therefore, in the below example, the total cost will be reduced by five pips.

Limit Model Account (STP Model Account)

Spread = 18 | Slippage = 0 | Trading fee = 0

Total cost = Spread + Slippage + Trading Fee

= 18 + 0 + 0

Total cost = 18

Forex Videos

What The Japanese PM Shinzo Abe’s Resignation Meant For Forex!

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe resigns where next for the Yen?

Thank you for joining this educational video. in this session, we will be looking at the impact of the Japanese yen now that long-standing prime minister Shinzo Abe has resigned.

If we look at this one-hour chart of the US dollar Japanese yen pair from Friday 28th of August, rumours started to enter the financial markets during the European session that prime minister Shinzo Abe was about to resign due to ill health. The currency pair declined as investors sought to buy Japanese yen. Typically, when uncertainty surrounds a country, such as an important announcement that the long service serving prime minister was about to resign, you might expect the currency to the devalue.
However, the Yen is also seen as a safe-haven currency due to the American economy’s continuing uncertainties because of the ongoing pandemic and upcoming presidential elections. A lack of any kind of stimulus package being agreed on between the democrats and the republicans did not help the US dollar, coupled with the fact that the day before the Fed’s chairman, Jerome Powell, change policy with regard to allowing inflation target to move higher than the 2% benchmark that it had worked to for many years, thus allowing the potential for low-interest rates to remain at record lows for years to come.

On the flip side, we have a fairly strong and stable Japanese economy, which Shinzo Abe will be attributed for, being one of the longest-standing prime ministers in Japanese history. He was liked and respected around the globe, and his tight policy-making has proved an asset or the Japanese economy. He managed to negotiate a trade deal with America, which was beneficial to both countries and is proving successful, but he also stood up to China with regard to what the Japanese saw, as is an infringement on Japanese businesses being able to work within China. Although he stood up to the Chinese government, he did so without any animosity or threats. Such is the high regard that he was held as a statesman for Japan.

If we take a look at this monthly chart of the pair going back to September 2017, we can see that it has not been averse to large swings from lows of 98.00 to highs of 119.00, but where the general trend in the last 12-months has been towards a firmer Japanese yen.
While the Japanese economy will be reeling from its prime minister’s loss, the markets have not been acting adversely, possibly due to the previously mentioned fundamental reasons.

Therefore, it is highly likely that we can expect little change in sentiment for the Japanese yen. The general trend in the pair is lower as investors look to safe-haven assets, such as the yen, and while the market is currently in volatile mode, the downward pressure on this pair will likely remain for the foreseeable future.

Forex Assets

Costs Involved While Trading The JPY/LKR Forex Exotic Pair


JPYLKR is a forex exotic currency pair, where JPY is Japan’s currency, and LKR is the currency of Sri Lanka. In this currency pair, JPY is the first currency, and the LKR is the second currency. The JPYLKR shows how much LKR is needed to have one JPY. It is quoted as 1 JPY per X LKR. For example, if the value of this currency pair is at 1.7686, then almost 1.7686 LKR is required to purchase one JPY.

JPYLKR Specification


The spread comes from the difference between the Ask and Bid price that a broker take as a charge. This value is set by the broker. However, it varies on the type of execution model used for executing the trades. Below are the ECN and STP values of JPY/LKR forex exotic pair.

Spread on ECN: 19 pips | Spread on STP: 24 pips


Every broker takes fees from trading, which is similar to the stock market. However, there is no fee on STP accounts, but a few pips on ECN accounts.


Sometimes the entry price and execution price does not match, which is known as Slippage. The reason for slippage is the market volatility and the broker’s execution speed.

Trading Range in JPY/LKR

Procedure to assess Pip Ranges

  1. Add the ATR indicator to your chart
  2. Set the period to 1
  3. Add a 200-period SMA to this indicator
  4. Shrink the chart so you can assess a large time period
  5. Select your desired timeframe
  6. Measure the floor level and set this value as the min
  7. Measure the level of the 200-period SMA and set this as the average
  8. Measure the peak levels and set this as Max.

JPYLKR Cost as a Percent of the Trading Range

With the volatility values from the above table, we can determine the chance of cost with volatility changes. We have got the ratio between total cost and volatility and converted into percentages.

ECN Model Account 

Spread = 19 | Slippage = 5 | Trading fee = 8

Total cost = Spread + Slippage + Trading Fee

= 19 + 5 + 8

Total cost = 32

STP Model Account

Spread = 24 | Slippage = 3 | Trading fee = 0

Total cost = Spread + Slippage + Trading Fee

= 19 + 5 + 0

Total cost = 27 

The Ideal way to trade the JPYLKR

The JPYLKR has enough volatility and liquidity. Hence, trading in this currency pair is straightforward and profitable. The above table’s percentage values are within 300%, which is an indication of stable volatility. Therefore, the costs are low irrespective of the timeframe and volatility you trade.

Digging it a little deeper, there is an inverse relationship between the cost and volatility. In a lower timeframe, the volatility is higher, and the cost is lower. However, in a higher timeframe, the volatility is lower, but the cost is higher. In this situation, traders should focus on trading when the volatility is on the average value. Therefore, it will be cost-efficient for all traders.

Furthermore, traders can quickly reduce costs by placing ‘limit’ and ‘stop’ orders. Because by using limit orders, the Slippage can be totally avoided, and the total costs get reduced. In our example, the total cost will be reduced by five pips, as shown below.

Using Limit Orders

Spread = 19 | Slippage = 0 | Trading fee = 0

Total cost = Spread + Slippage + Trading Fee

= 19 + 0 + 0

Total cost = 19

Forex Signals

CADJPY triple bounce off the upper linear regression channel boundary

The Setup

Fig 1 – CADJPY triple bounce off the upper linear regression channel boundary

CADJPY has been obeying a slightly descending linear regression channel. On the 60 min chart, the ± 2 sigma lines are shown in blue, whereas the regression line, is shown in dotted white. In that chart, we can observe that the price has bounced three consecutive times off that line, and now, in its third bounce, it also pierced its 50-hour SMA to the downside.

A trade can be created with an entry at the current price and a target neat the bottom of the channel, for an excellent reward to risk factor. The rationale for this type of trade is the following. On channels like that, the odds of a reversal from a 2 sigma line is high, at least 95% of the time. The issue here is the reversal is strong enough to reach our target? Usually, it is highly likely a movement to touch the mid of the channel, but, since here the channel is descending, the odds of it moving to the bottom is higher. We will follow this trade, though, and adapt our stop-loss level and take profit as we see how the bearish momentum evolves.

Key Levels

  •         Entry: 76.495
  •  Stop-Loss: 76.895
  • Take-profit: 75.295
  • Reward/Risk: 3

Dollar Risks and Rewards

Risk: 40 pips = $372 per lot, or $37.2 per mini lot.

Reward: 120 pips = $1,117 per lot, or 111,7 per mini lot


Forex Assets

What Should You Know Before Trading The CHF/JPY Currency Pair


CHFJPY is a symbolic representation of the Swiss franc against the Japanese yen. Here, CHF is the base currency, and JPY is the quote currency. Since it does not have USD involved, it is classified as a cross-currency pair.

Understanding CHF/JPY

The market price of this pair is the number of JPY that are required to purchase one CHF. It is quoted as 1 CHF per X JPY. For example, it’s current value is 112.31, then 112.31 yen are needed to buy one Swiss franc.


Spread in forex is the difference between the bid price of a currency and the ask price of it. And this pip difference is used up by the brokers as a form of fee. However, it is not a fixed value. It varies from brokers to brokers.

ECN: 1.3 | STP: 2.1


Spread is not the only form of fee that is levied by the brokers. There is a commission on the trade as well. The commission is nil on STP accounts, but pips on ECN accounts.


When entering a trade using market orders, the trader does not get the exact price he intended when he executed it. There might be a difference in pips. This difference is referred to as slippage. Slippage may be in favor of or against the trader.

Trading Range in CHF/JPY

The trading range is simply a representation of the minimum, average, and maximum pip movement in a currency pair. With these values, one can assess how much money a trader will be risking in a particular timeframe. For example, if the average pip movement on the 4H in this pair is 15 pips, then a trader can expect to win or lose $150.6 in about 4H or so.

Procedure to assess Pip Ranges

  1. Add the ATR indicator to your chart
  2. Set the period to 1
  3. Add a 200-period SMA to this indicator
  4. Shrink the chart so you can determine a large time period
  5. Select your desired timeframe
  6. Measure the floor level and set this value as the min
  7. Measure the level of the 200-period SMA and set this as the average
  8. Measure the peak levels and set this as Max.

CHF/JPY Cost as a Percent of the Trading Range

Apart from knowing the profit or loss can one can incur in a given timeframe, it is necessary to assess the cost of these trades as well. Below is a table that represents the cost variation in different volatilities. And these costs are determined by finding the ratio between the total cost and the volatility.

ECN Model Account

Spread = 1.3 | Slippage = 2 |Trading fee = 1

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 2 + 1.3 + 1 = 4.3

STP Model Account

Spread = 2.1 | Slippage = 2 | Trading fee = 0

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 2 + 2.1 + 0 = 4.1

The Ideal way to trade the CHF/JPY

The forex market is open 24hours. However, it is not ideal to enter the market at any time. There are times when the costs are low, and times when it’s high.

The percentages in the table are directly proportional to the costs of the trade. It is seen that the percentages are high in the minimum column, and low in the maximum column. Hence, we can conclude that costs are inversely proportional to the volatility of the market. Now, when it comes to choosing the right time to trade, it is best to enter during those times when the volatility of the market is around the average values. This will ensure enough volatility in the market and low costs as well.

In addition, placing orders using limit/pending orders reduces costs too because this will completely nullify the slippage on the trade and will bring down the total cost significantly.

Forex Assets

What Should Know About The AUD/JPY Currency Pair?


AUDJPY is the abbreviation for the Australian dollar and the Japanese yen. It commonly referred to as “Aussie yen.” It is one of the cross-currency pairs in the forex market. AUD, being on the left, is termed as the base currency and JPY as the quote currency.

Understanding AUD/JPY

The market price of AUDJPY corresponds to the value of JPY that needs to be paid to buy one AUD. It is quoted as 1 AUD per X JPY. For example, if the value of AUDJPY is 74.571, then these many units of the yen are to be produced to purchase one Australian dollar.

AUD/JPY Specification


Spread is the medium through which brokers generate their revenue. They set different prices for buying a currency and selling a currency. The difference amount becomes their profit margin. The spread usually changes from time to time and varies on the type of execution model.

ECN: 0.7 | STP: 1.6


Apart from spreads, one needs to pay a charge for every execution a trader makes. It is essentially the commission levied by the broker on each trade. As a matter of fact, there is no fee on STP accounts. But, on ECN accounts, there is a fee of few pips.


Going by the definition, slippage is the difference between the price executed by the trader and the price he actually received. It could be in favor of the trader or against him. It all depends on the broker’s execution speed and the change in the volatility of the market.

Trading Range in AUD/JPY

A trading range is a tabular representation of the minimum, average, and the maximum pip movement in a currency pair on different timeframes. These values help in determining the profit that can be made or loss one must bear in a given time frame. And this can be found out by simply finding the product between the pip movement and the value per pip ($9.15).

Procedure to assess Pip Ranges

  1. Add the ATR indicator to your chart
  2. Set the period to 1
  3. Add a 200-period SMA to this indicator
  4. Shrink the chart so you can determine a large time period
  5. Select your desired timeframe
  6. Measure the floor level and set this value as the min
  7. Measure the level of the 200-period SMA and set this as the average
  8. Measure the peak levels and set this as Max.

AUD/JPY Cost as a Percent of the Trading Range

Cost as a percent of the trading range is an illustration of the cost variation by considering the total cost and the volatility of the market in different timeframes. These values are expressed in a ratio that is converted to percentages. And the magnitude of these percentages helps in determining the cost variation in each trade.

ECN Model Account

Spread = 0.7 | Slippage = 2 |Trading fee = 1

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 2 + 0.7 + 1 = 3.7

STP Model Account

Spread = 1.6 | Slippage = 2 | Trading fee = 0

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 2 + 1.6 + 0 = 3.6

The Ideal way to trade the AUD/JPY

Though Forex is a 24/7 market, it is not ideal to enter any time in the market. There are certain times when you must enter the market, which can help reduce costs significantly. Let us determine that using the above tables.

Note that the higher the magnitude of the percentage, the higher is the cost of the trade. From the table, it can be ascertained that the values are high in the minimum column, implying that the costs are high when the volatility of the market is low. Similarly, the costs are low when the volatility is high. However, it is not ideal to trade during these times. To ensure optimum volatility and affordable cost, one must trade during those times when the volatility is around the average range.

Furthermore, there is another way through which you can reduce your costs. Trading using limit orders instead of the market orders brings down the total cost significantly, as the slippage becomes zero. The decline in the costs on the trade when slippage is made zero is shown below.

Forex Assets

What Should You Know Before Trading The NZD/JPY Currency Pair


NZDJPY, or the NZD/JPY or the New Zealand dollar against the Japanese yen, is a cross-currency pair in the Forex market. The left currency (NZD) represents the base currency, and the one the right (JPY) represents the quote currency.

Understanding NZD/JPY

The market value of NZDJPY is a value of JPY that is required to buy one NZD. It is quoted as 1 NZD per X JPY. For example, if the CMP (current market price) of NZDJPY is 72.657, then it takes 72.657 yen to buy one New Zealand dollar.

NZD/JPY Specification


Spread is the difference between the bid price and the ask price controlled by the broker. It varies across brokers and their type of execution.

ECN: 0.8 | STP: 1.7


On every trade a trader takes, there are few pips of fee on it. And this is only on ECN accounts because the fee on STP accounts is nil.


Slippage, which happens on market orders, is the difference between the price asked by the client and the price he actually received. There are two primary reasons for it, namely, the broker’s execution speed and the change in volatility of the market.

Trading Range in NZD/JPY

The average, minimum, and maximum pip movement is determined in the trading range table. This comprehensive table helps traders assess the profit they can generate and loss they can incur in a given timeframe. Moreover, this table is helpful in analyzing the cost variation in a trade, which shall be discussed in the next section.

Procedure to assess Pip Ranges

  1. Add the ATR indicator to your chart
  2. Set the period to 1
  3. Add a 200-period SMA to this indicator
  4. Shrink the chart so you can assess a large time period
  5. Select your desired timeframe
  6. Measure the floor level and set this value as the min
  7. Measure the level of the 200-period SMA and set this as the average
  8. Measure the peak levels and set this as Max.

NZD/JPY Cost as a Percent of the Trading Range

The cost of a trade is not the same throughout the trading day. It varies based on the volatility of the market. Hence, it is necessary to know during what times the cost is high and what times it is low. This could be found out from the table illustrated below.

ECN Model Account 

Spread = 0.8 | Slippage = 2 |Trading fee = 1

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 2 + 0.8 + 1 = 3.8

STP Model Account

Spread = 1.7 | Slippage = 2 | Trading fee = 0

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 2 + 1.7 + 0 = 3.7

The Ideal way to trade the NZD/JPY

The magnitude of the cost percentage is directly proportional to the cost of a trade. So, the higher the value of the percentage, the higher is the cost of a trade. From the table, it can be observed that the cost is highest in the min column compared to the other two columns. This means that the costs are highest when the volatility of the market is low and vice versa, irrespective of the timeframe you’re trading. It is neither ideal to trade when the volatility of the market is high, nor when the costs are high. The average column is on the one we focus on. Trading when the volatility is at the average value is when you can expect moderate volatility and decent costs.

Also, you may reduce your costs by trading using limit or pending orders instead of market orders. This will bring the slippage to ground zero. This, in turn, will reduce the total cost of the trade as well. An example of the same is illustrated below.

Spread = 1.7 | Slippage = 0 | Trading fee = 0

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 0 + 1.7 + 0 = 1.7

Hence, it is seen that the costs have reduced by around 50% of the previous value.

Forex Assets

Information About The GBP/JPY Forex Currency Pair


The Great Britain pound versus the Japanese yen is a cross-currency pair in the forex market. It is a widely traded pair with great liquidity and volatility. In this currency pair, GBP is the base currency, and JPY is the quote currency.

Understanding GBP/JPY

The market price of GBPJPY shows the units of yens required to purchase one pound. It is quoted as 1 GBP per X JPY. For example, if the value of GBPJPY is 143.82, then 143.82 yen are to be produced by the trader to buy one pound.

GBP/JPY Specification


Spread is the difference between the bid price and the ask price set by the broker. These prices vary from broker to broker and type of account model as well. The approximate spread on ECN and SPT accounts is mentioned as follows.

ECN: 0.7 | STP: 1.6


There is a fixed round-trip fee on every trade a trader takes. On ECN accounts, the spread is around 6 to 10 pips. And on STP accounts, there is no fee as such. However, though there is no fee on STP accounts, the total fee is still compensated with the high spread on it.


Slippage is another parameter that adds up to the total fee. It is the difference between price executed by the trader and price he actually received from the broker. This happens solely due to the change in volatility of the market and the broker’s execution speed.

Trading Range in GBP/JPY

The trading range is a pip depiction tool that determines the minimum, average, and maximum pip movement in a different timeframe. This volatility table is pretty useful in analyzing the amount of risk that is involved in a trade. For example, if the max pip movement on the 4H is 60 pips, then a trader can get an idea that he can gain/lose a max of $552.6 in a time frame of 4 hours.

Procedure to assess Pip Ranges

  1. Add the ATR indicator to your chart
  2. Set the period to 1
  3. Add a 200-period SMA to this indicator
  4. Shrink the chart so you can assess a large time period
  5. Select your desired timeframe
  6. Measure the floor level and set this value as the min
  7. Measure the level of the 200-period SMA and set this as the average
  8. Measure the peak levels and set this as Max.

GBP/JPY Cost as a Percent of the Trading Range

The cost as a percent of the trading range is again the volatility but combined with total cost on a trade. It is a tabular representation of the cost of trading in varying timeframes and volatilities. The percentages are obtained simply by finding the ratio between the total cost and volatility.

ECN Model Account

Spread = 0.7 | Slippage = 2 |Trading fee = 1

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 2 + 0.7 + 1 = 3.7

STP Model Account

Spread = 1.6 | Slippage = 2 | Trading fee = 0

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 2 + 1.6 + 0 = 3.6

The Ideal way to trade the GBP/JPY

The magnitude of the percentages basically determines how high or how low the costs are for each trade. If the percentage is high, the costs are high. If they are low, the costs are low. The very first observation that can be made is that the costs are high in the min column comparative to the average column and maximum column. Hence, the costs are high for low volatile markets, and low for high volatile markets. But, it is not ideal to trade in either of these markets. The best time to get into the pair is when the volatility is around the average values. As far as the timeframes are concerned, the cost decreases as the width of the timeframe increases.

Placing limit orders is another way to minimize your cost significantly. Because this will not take slippage into consideration for calculating the total costs. Thus, the total cost reduces greatly. An example of the same is illustrated below.

Hence, we can see that the percentages have reduced by around 50% or so.

Forex Assets

Understanding The Fundamentals Of USD/JPY Forex Pair


USDJPY is the abbreviation for the currency pair US dollar against the Japanese yen. This currency pair is very liquid and volatile. It is classified as a major currency pair. Here, USD is the base currency, and JPY is the quote currency. The currency pair shows how many JPY are required to purchase one US dollar.

Understanding USD/JPY

The exchange rate of USDJPY represents the units of JPY equivalent to one US dollar. For example, if the value of USDJPY is 109.550, then these many Japanese yen are required to buy one US dollar.

USD/JPY Specification


Spread is simply the difference between the bid price and the ask price. It depends on the account type. The average spread for ECN and STP account is shown below.

Spread on ECN: 0.5

Spread on STP: 1.2


The fee is basically the commission charged by the broker on each trade. Typically, the fee on STP accounts is nil, and there is some fee on the ECN account. There is no fixed fee on the ECN account and varies from broker to broker.


Slippage is the difference between the price needed by the trader and the real price the trader was executed. Slippage happens when orders are executed as market orders. The slippage is usually within the range of 0.5 to 5 pips.

Trading Range in USD/JPY

The trading range is the representation of the minimum, average, and maximum volatility on a particular timeframe. It shows the range of pips the currency pair moved on a given timeframe. These values prove to be helpful in assessing a trader’s risk and controlling their cost on a trade.


Procedure to assess Pip Ranges

  1. Add the ATR indicator to your chart
  2. Set the period to 1
  3. Add a 200-period SMA to this indicator
  4. Shrink the chart so you can assess a large time period
  5. Select your desired timeframe
  6. Measure the floor level and set this value as the min
  7. Measure the level of the 200-period SMA and set this as the average
  8. Measure the peak levels and set this as Max.

USD/JPY Cost as a Percent of the Trading Range

Just knowing how many pips the currency pair moved is pointless. To bring it some value, it is clubbed with the total cost to understand how the cost varies based on the volatility of the market. It shows cost and volatility are dependent on each other.

The relation between Cost and Volatility

Cost and volatility are inversely proportional to each other. When the volatility of the market is low, the costs are high; and when the volatility is high, the cost is low. More on this is discussed in the subsequent section.

ECN Model Account

Spread = 0.5 | Slippage = 2 | Trading fee = 1

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 2 + 0.5 + 1 = 3.5

STP Model Account

Spread = 1.2 | Slippage = 2 | Trading fee = 0

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 2 + 1.2 + 0 = 3.2

The Ideal way to trade the USD/JPY

The above two tables are formed by finding the ratio between the total cost and the volatility. It is then expressed in terms of a percentage. Comprehending the values is simple. It is based on the relation between cost and volatility. If the percentage value is high, then the cost is high for that particular volatility and timeframe. It can be inferred that the min column has the highest values compared to the average and max column. This simply means that the costs are high when the volatility of the market is low. Hence, it is recommended to open/close positions when the volatility is at or above the average mark.

Furthermore, apart from volatility, the cost is heavily affected by the slippage. As mentioned, this happens due to market order executions. Hence, to reduce your cost by up to 50% on each trade, it is recommended to trade using limit orders and not market orders.

Forex Course

15. All About Trading The Tokyo Session!


Japan’s capital Tokyo, is the most majorly traded market in the Asian continent. That is, in Asia, the highest volume comes from the Tokyo market. In fact, it is considered the financial capital of Asia. Moreover, it is the third-largest trading center in the world.

The Tokyo session, also referred to as the Asia session, opens at 8:00 PM EST and is traded until 5:00 AM EST. In terms of Japan’s local time, the trading happens between 9:00 AM to 6:00 PM. As ‘Yen’ is the currency of Japan, 16.50% of all the Yen transactions take place during this time. And as far as all currency transactions are concerned, the value lies at 21%.

The one that matters the most during any session is the pip movement in different pairs. Below is a table which represents the average pip movement for some of the major currency pair.

Now, the average of the above currency pairs turns out to be around 53 pips. This number is less when compared to the New York session and the London session.

Some facts about trading the Tokyo session

During this session, the market is seen to fade away its momentum. That is, the market is seen to be quite flat. In technical terms, the market usually goes through a consolidation state. This session might not be the ideal session for the ones looking for large pip movement. However, this session can be great for scalpers.

Tokyo market typically is known to correct the overbuying and selling in the New York session. The market makes drastic moves during the NY session and comes to slows down its pace during the Tokyo session. Therefore, the liquidity during this session is quite feeble.

It is not just the central banks and hedge funds that move the market. Since Japan is the largest exporter in the world, a large number of transactions come from the exporters as well.

Also, the Bank of Japan is an active participant in the forex market during the Tokyo session. This is because it intervenes the curb appreciation in the Yen regularly.

Which currency pairs should you focus on?

The market conditions and situations tend to change from time to time, so it becomes uncertain to predict the exact movement of pairs. However, if we were to consider the average rates, we can keep an eye on the news from countries like Australia, New Zealand, China, and Japan. The news from these countries comes during the Tokyo session or just before its open. And the news usually pumps up the volatility and liquidity of the market. Hence, one can have a focus on AUD, NZD, and JPY pairs.

When the Tokyo session comes to an end, the London markets open, which causes overlap between the two sessions. So, to be part of the significant movements, keep an eye on GBP, EUR, and CHF along with AUD, NZD, JPY, and USD.

This is a brief review of the Tokyo session. We shall discuss the other sessions as well in the upcoming lessons. Take the below quiz to know if you have learned the concepts right.

[wp_quiz id=”46800″]
Forex Course

9. Understanding The Concept Of ‘Pip’ In Detail


‘Pip,’ the word sounds pretty familiar, right? Well, that’s because this is a fundamental term when it comes to trading in the forex market. Pip forms the base for reading the price changes in the currencies. Hence, understanding this lesson is very important. So, let’s begin by defining what a pip is.

What is a pip?

Pip is a unit of movement in currency pairs. It basically tells, by how many values the price of the currency pair has changed. A pip is the same for all the pairs except for the currencies paired with JPY. One pip for every JPY pairs is 0.01 while it is 0.0001 for the rest. Hence, the fourth decimal place in the price of the currency pair represents a pip for non-JPY pairs, and the second decimal place in the price represents a pip for JPY pairs. Now, let us comprehend this with an example.

Let’s say the current market price of EURUSD is 1.1000. We say a currency price has moved by one pip when the price rises to 1.1001. Similarly, when the price goes up to 1.1008, we say the price has moved to by 8 pips (w.r.t 1.1000). Taking it further, if the price goes up even higher until 1.1010, we say the market has risen by 10 pips. From these three examples, we can come up with the formula for pip as follows:

Pip = current market price – initial price under consideration (For long position)

Pip = initial price under consideration – current market price (For short position)

Let’ say the CMP of USDCAD is 1.3230. Later, the price shoots to1.3293. Let us calculate how many pips have this pair increased.

Pip = 1.3293 – 1.3230

Pip = 0.0063

Hence, the currency has risen by 63 pips.

Pips extended

The change in the value of the price on the fourth decimal point represents the pip change between 0-9.

The change in the value of the price on the third decimal point represents the pip change between 10 and 99.

The change in the value of the price on the second decimal point represents the pip change between 100 and 999.

The change in the value of the price on the first decimal point represents the pip change between 1000 and 9999.

Let us understand this by an example. Let’s say the current market price of a currency pair is 0.5829.

Here, 9 indicates 9 pips,

2 indicates 20 pips,

8 indicates 800 pips, and

5 indicates 5000 pips.

What is Pip a value?

The pip value adds value to the pip by determining its ‘worth’ in terms of the base currency. Pip value for a currency pair can be calculated using the below formula.

Pip value = change in the value of counter currency * exchange rate ratio

Example: Let’s say the price of GBPUSD is 1.2450. That is, 1 GBP is equal to 1.2450 USD. Now, if price moved by one pip, i.e., to 1.245. The pip value for this can be calculated as follows.

Pip value = 0.0001 USD * (1 GBP/1.2450 USD)

Pip value = 0.00008032 GBP

Hence, by trading one unit GBPUSD, you will make 0.00008032 GBP. Similarly, trading 100,000 units of this pair, you will get 8.032 GBP.

What is Pipette?

Apart from pips, brokers represent quotes in pipettes, as well. An increase in the decimal place of a pip will get you the pipette value. So, the 5th decimal and 3rd decimal place represents pipettes for non-JPY pairs and JPY pairs, respectively.

For example, if the price of EURUSD increases from 1.21001 to 1.21002, we say the price has risen by 2 pipettes.

That’s all about Pips. If you have any more questions, let us know by commenting below. Don’t forget to check your learning by answering the below questions.

[wp_quiz id=”44951″]
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, October 04 – Major Trade Setups – Buckle Up for NFP Event!

Daily FX Brief, October 04 – Major Trade Setups – Buckle Up for NFP Event! 

On Friday, the U.S. dollar index continues to weaken ahead of the U.S. NFP data, which is due in the New York session today. Lately, the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) released the Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) for Non-Manufacturing Goods as 51.6 against the expected 55.0 for September. 

The data showed that it fell to a 3-Year low this month. The release of weak indices of the Manufacturing and Non-manufacturing sector this week indicates the slow growth of the economy in the U.S. Consequently, we are seeing less growth in the U.S. dollar today.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

During the early Asian session, the EUR/USD currency pair hit the bullish track for the 4th consecutive day due to all-important United States Nonfarm Payroll data.

As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair presently trading at 1.0978, hit the high level of 1.0984 and showing 0.13% gains on the day. The pair maintained its gains for the 4th consecutive session.

On the other hand, all traders are presently expecting more than 80% odds of the rate cut by the 25-basis-points at the Federal Reserve next meeting later this month. The expectations were 64% on Wednesday, and 40% were on Monday, and currently reached 80% so far.

The increasing probabilities of an October Federal reserve rate cut also support the bullish track put forward by the hourly chart golden crossover.

At the U.S. Payroll front, the data is scheduled to release at 12:30 GMT an expected to show the economy added 145,000 jobs during the September after the 130,000 additions during the August. Besides this, the Average Hourly Earnings are found while increasing by 3.2% year on year, and the jobless rate is estimated to stay flat at 3.7%.

Whereas, the sluggish data will prop the dovish Federal Reserve expectations and pushing the greenback lower across the board.

As in consequences, probably the EUR/USD pair will come under pressure and possibly hit the low level of 1.09 if the data beats forecasted figures by a considerable margin.   

Daily Support and Resistance


S3 1.0823

S2 1.0883

S1 1.0921

Pivot Point 1.0943

R1 1.0981

R2 1.1002

R3 1.1062

EUR/USD – Trading Tips

Before Non-farm payrolls, the EUR/USD is consolidating in a narrow range. Investors await for NFP and trying to stay out of the market until the actual figure is out. The 50-hour moving average (M.A.) had a hit above the 200-hour M.A., confirming a golden crossover – a buyer market sign. Therefore, the pair seems set to maintain the continuous recovery rally from recent lows near 1.0880. 

Consider staying bullish above 1.0970 to target 1.1040. The bearish target can be set at 1.0880. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY closed at 106.910 after placing a low of 106.480 on Thursday. With no economic release from japan side, the movement of USD/JPY solely depended on U.S. dollars on Thursday. The weak ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at 19:00 GMT indicated a slowdown in the economic activity of the United States by coming as 52.6 against 55.1 expected. This raised the concerns of the U.S. falling under recession after the continuous disappointing economic releases from the U.S. for three consecutive days. 

On Wednesday U.S. Private sector showed that the hiring made by them in September was not satisfactorily affected by the trade disputes prevailing between U.S. & China.

Concerning trade disputes, on Wednesday, there was another announcement from Trump’s administration related to the Tariffs on European Goods. 

With the increased chances of U.S. economic slowdown and a third rate cut by Federal Reserve in upcoming policy meeting, the U.S. Dollar faced pressure for 3rd consecutive day and has made USD/JPY to move in Bearish Trend.

Other economic releases from the United States on Thursday were, the Unemployment Claims at 17:30 GMT, came as 219K against 215K expected, weighed the U.S. Dollar. At 18:45 GMT, the Final Services PMI came as expected 50.9. The Factory Orders came in favor of U.S. Dollar as -0.1% against -0.5% expected.

Daily Support and Resistance 

S3 105.7

S2 106.53

S1 106.86

Pivot Point 107.37

R1 107.69

R2 108.2

R3 109.04

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY continues to trade bearish after violating the bullish channel on the 240 mins chart. The USD/JPY is now holding below 50 periods EMA, which is suggesting bearish bias among traders. 

On the lower side, the USD/JPY is likely to gain support at 106.400 area. The MACD and RSI are holding below 0 and 50, suggesting odds or more bearish bias in the USD/JPY. Let’s stay bearish below 107 to target 106.400 today. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair hit the high level of 1.2350 and maintains the recovery rally, as worries about the U.S. fundamentals weighing over the Brexit news.

The US ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index PMI is entering the previous manufacturing level from the same surveyor. Besides, the increased level of uncertainty coming from the survey has extended pullback in the greenback from the 2-year highs.

On the other hand, the GBP/USD pair trades started the day with headlines concerning the European Union. The EU has given 7-days more to the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson to announce a better offer. The Tory leader could increase the support of thirty-labour rebels that supports the Breit deal.

Later in the day, investors will keep their eyes on the September month employment data, namely Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings. After the news report, the eyes will remain on the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at the “Federal Reserve the meeting.


Daily Support and Resistance


S3 1.2088

S2 1.2186

S1 1.2242

Pivot Point 1.2283

R1 1.234

R2 1.2381

R3 1.2479

GBP/USD – Trading Tips

On the technical view, the 130-pip area between 50-day and 21-day simple moving averages (SMA), 1.2250, and 1.2380, respectively, may keep the pair’s trading moves limited. Today, consider staying bullish above 1.2330 to target 1.2400 and 1.2500. Whereas, the GBP/USD may remain bearish below 1.2330 to target 1.2275 and 1.2230. 

 All the best! 



Forex Market Analysis

Bullish Economy at a Crossroad: Free Trade against Protectionism




Underlying Events

Last week’s volatility was fueled early Monday by Italy’s political instability as Italian president Sergio Mattarella refused to appoint Giuseppe Conte, a Eurosceptic, as Finance Minister even though he has the backing of the majority of the parliament.

Then, on May 30, as fears about Italy eased the markets focused its attention on EU officials statements against the US imposed tariffs on steel and aluminium.

“The US is playing a dangerous game by slapping tariffs on European steel and aluminium,” said Cecilia Malmstrom, warning about the consequences for economic recovery on the EU as well as US industry. (source BBC)


 Last week’s Economic Calendar was full of interesting releases



May’s US Consumer Confidence figure is at its historic highs, at its estimated 128.0 level, non-farm unemployment is at 3.8%, and US GDP (QoQ) grew at 2.2% a tick below estimations, while US Advance Goods Trade Balance was below expectations at -68.2b.

On the consumer front, May 31 brought us the US PCE Core (YoY) that is stable at 1.8%, the Personal Income (APR) stable at 0.3%, and Pending Home Sales (MoM) below expectations at -1.3%, below the expected 0.4%.

On the Energy Front, crude oil inventories were -3620K well below the expected 450k, while the gasoline inventories were 634K, above the expected -1200K

Finally, the USD Manufacturing figures were a bit above expectations, at 58.7 over 58.2 expected.


German retail sales on April (MoM)grew 2.3% well above the expected 0.5% although the yearly figure fell to 1.2% growth, below the expected 1.6%.

On the unemployment front, Germany’s May unemployment change was -11K above the expectations, and the unemployment Claims rate dropped one centile to 5.2%.

Britain’s consumer credit grew to 1.84B, above the expected 1.3B, while the mortgage approvals slightly descended to 62.5K, below the expected 63.2K

Swiss’s main figure this week was its Gross Domestic Product (YoY) for the first quarter at 2.2%, slightly below the expected 2.3%.


JPY retail trade (YoY) grew 1.6%, above the expected 1%, while JPY retail sales figure was down -0.8% below the expected 0.2%. Also, JPY industrial production for April was up 2.5%, below the expected 3.6%.


Last week BoC kept its interest rate unchanged at 1.25%, as was expected. However, its GDP figure for the first quarter was a disappointing annualised 1.3%, below the expected 1.8%

The overall picture of this economic background is that of a strong US economy, a not so strong Eurozone, and a possible weakening of the Canadian economy. This is especially sensitive as both Europe and Canada have a potential tariffs war against the USA. We also see weakened Japanese industrial production.

All this make us think on the continuation of the strength of the US Dollar and a further weakening scenario for the Euro, the Pound, and the Yen.

Next Week



Next week lacks major economic reports and no earnings news, so markets will possibly pay attention to political developments that will fill the headlines, such as President Trump’s trade wars, or the G7 summit by the end of the week in Canada. Mr Trump is expected to arrive on Friday and meet leaders from Germany, UK, France, Italy, and Japan. A statement of the other six members of the group showed their “unanimous concern” about US tariffs.


US Trade Data.

To be released on Wednesday (14:30 GMT+2). The forecasted deficit is 50.0 B from 49B in March.


China Trade Figures:

To be released in the early hours of Friday. The expectations are for an increase of the surplus figures to $32.5B, higher than last month’s $28.8 B.

It is expected that exports will grow by 6.3% and imports to rise 16%.


RBA Policy meeting:

Due on Tuesday early morning, it will likely keep its rates unchanged at 1.5%.

We should also pay attention to the New Zealand GDP release early Wednesday.


Technical Analysis

S&P 500

The S&P 500 behave very bullishly on a weekly basis, although it suffered some drawbacks during the week. Technically the price moves inside a very steep upward channel, but right now it is close to a resistance area that matches the opening of a large red candle drawn in March. We need to watch how the price reacts here. If it is crossed next week we see a free path to head for January highs, mid-term.


Ehlers Adaptive Moving Average MAMA and cycle indicator show a bullish momentum is developing. The only black cloud in the sky is that the price is facing a strong resistance area.



The weekly chart shows that the DAX and the Euro-zone are not confident of its economic outlook.  The Index has drawn two consecutive bearish candles and we see that it shows descending lows. Its Cycle Indicator also points to the downside.

We have to pay attention next week to the US index because the DAX is correlated to it, but if we only pay attention to the technical outlook, we are more in the side of the bearish scenario.

The daily chart doesn’t change its outlook. We see that the price broke the triangular formation to the downside and tested it three times last week without being able to break it. Last Friday, although the session closed with gains, the inside candle drawn shows indecision and doubt. The most probable scenario is for the DAX to head down to test the support at 12378 level.


US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index weekly chart shows a Spinning Top candle, while Ehlers’ Cycle indicator has changed to bearish. This may indicate that last week’s correction isn’t finished yet and we may look for a test of the Fibo 0.38 or, even to a 50% retracement, although this is less probable.


The Dollar Index daily chart’s engulfing candle that happened on May 29 has been challenged but not successfully. The Cycle indicator also points to the bearish side. Therefore our expectation is for more drops next week.


This means the Euro and GBP could still be retracing their heavy drops that started mid-May.



On a weekly chart the pair made an engulfing candle two weeks ago, and last week it continues moving down toward its support zone, where it bounced sharply up creating a hammer.
The price is moving mainly by its fundamentals, and now it is heading to the resistance area (green rectangle ). We may see the pair moving between those two areas for some time.

Looking at the daily chart, the pair broke the triangle formation to the upside with a large candle. The cycle indicator also points upward.
The target level is at its recent highs.


Forex Trading Strategies

The Connors & Raschke’s 80-20 Strategy



The original Connors & Raschke’s 80-20 Strategy is an intraday strategy that was published in Street Smarts by Larry Connors and Linda Raschke.

It is based on the Taylor Trading Technique, which is a manual for swing trading. Taylor’s method was the result of the observation that the markets move within a cycle that is made up of a buy day, a sell day, and a sell short day. That setup was further investigated by Steve Moore ar the Moore Research Center.

Mr. Moore focused on days that closed in the top 10% of the range for the day. Then, he checked on for the percent of time next day prices exceeded the previously established high, and, also, for the percentage of times it also closed higher.

His results showed that when prices closed in the top/bottom 10% of its range, it had an 80-90% chance of following-through the next session, but only 50% of them closed higher/lower. This fact implied an excellent possibility of reversal.

Derek Gibson, said Connors, found out that the market has an even higher chance of reversing if the set-up bar opened in the opposite end of the range. That is, a candlestick with short wicks and a large body. Therefore this pre-condition was added. To create more opportunities, they lowered the percent of the daily range from 90 to 80, because it didn’t affect the system’s profitability.

Long Setups

  1. Yesterday, the asset opened in the top 20% and closed in the lower 20% of its daily range.
  2. Today the market must trade at least 5-15 ticks below yesterday’s low. This is a guideline.
  3. An entry buy stop is then placed at yesterday’s low, once the trade is being filled, and an initial protective stop near the low extreme of today’s action.

Move the stop to lock in profits. This trade is a day trade only.


Short setups

  1. Yesterday the asset opened in the bottom 20% and closed in the higher 20% of its daily range.
  2. Today the market must trade at least 5-15 ticks above yesterday’s high This is a guideline.
  3. An entry sell stop is then placed at yesterday’s high, after being filled, and an initial protective stop near the upper extreme of today.

Move the stop to lock in profits. This trade is a day trade only.


Example of a trade


The Connors & Raschke's 80-20 Strategy

Testing the Strategy

We tested this strategy using the backtesting capabilities of the Multicharts64 version 11 Platform.

The naked strategy, as is, in EURUSD, USDGPY, and USDCHF over a range of 17 years, were positive in all cases. Below the equity curves for the three pairs:


Examining the parameter map


The figure above shows the parameter maps of the USD_CHF and the EUR_USD pairs. We see that the return of the strategy increases as the parameters move to the 50% level, meaning that the importance of the starting and ending point (Open to Close) in the previous candlestick is not essential. The critical fact is the next day’s break above(below) the previous highs(lows) and the subsequent return to that level (False Breakout).


Example of  50-50 System with optimized stops and targets on the EURUSD


As we said, this is a 50-50 system, meaning that we don’t care in which part of the candle is the Open and Close. This is a simple false breakout system.

We see that the curve is quite good over its 17-year history. Starting with 10,000 dollars, the final equity reached $72,000, for a 6X profit figure.


Looking at the Total Trade Analysis table, we can observe that this system is also robust, with almost 40% winners and an average Ratio Win to Average loss ( Reward/risk) of 2.19.


The shuffled Trades Analysis shows that the system is very reliable, with a likelihood of small drawdowns, depicting a max consecutive loss of 16 trades.


The Net Profit distribution Analysis shows that there is a 75% probability of getting a 5X equity profit over 16 years and a 25% probability of getting a 7X profit figure.


Above is the Max Consecutive Losing Streak analysis, which shows that there is less than 10% probability of ending above a 16 losing streak. Although you think that a 16-losing-streak is terrible, it is not, but we need to be prepared psychologically to endure it. This figure is the one needed to help us conservatively decide our risk strategy.

As I already mentioned in other strategy analyses, you, as a trader, need to decide which percent of your equity you can lose without losing your temper. Many don’t like to lose any amount so they shouldn’t trade, because losing streaks are part of the trading job. Many would say 10% while others 50%. That figure has a close relation to the rate of growth of your trading account because it will decide the size of your position.

And here it comes the way to do it. Once we know the distribution of drawdowns of our trading system, we, as traders, want to minimize the probabilities that a losing streak goes beyond our max drawdown figure. This is an approximation, but its good enough to allow us to decide the best position size for our risk tastes.

Let’s say we are an average-risk trader, and we will be upset if we lose ¼ of our account. Using this trading system, and admitting a 10% probability of error, we would choose 16 as the losing streak to compute our size per trade.

Therefore, we divide 25% equity drawdown by 16, which is 1.56%. In this case, we must trade using a 1.56% risk on every trade. That means that the cost of a trade computed by the distance from entry to stop-loss levels, multiplied by the dollar pip risk and by the number of contracts should be 1.56% of your current equity balance.

Let’s simplify it using elementary math:

Percent Risk (PR) = MaxDD / Max_losing_Streak

Dollar Risk = PR x Equity_Balance

Dollar Risk = (Entry-Stop) x PipCost x Nr_of_Contracts

Let’s call Entry-Stop, Pips. And NC the Number of Contracts. Then the equation is:

Dollar Risk = Pips x PipCost x NC

Let’s move the elements from this equation to compute the Nr of contracts.

NC = Dollar_Risk / (Pips x PipCost)


That’s all. Every trade will be different, and the distance in pips from entry to stop loss will be different, but we can compute the number of contracts quickly:

Let’s do an example. Our current balance is right now $12.000, and we want to enter a trade with 20 pips of risk, and our cost per pip is $10 per lot. Which is my optimal size?

Our Dollar Risk is 1.56% of $12,000 or $187

NC = 187 / (20 x 10) = 0.93 lots, or 93 micro-lots.


Computing the Performance of the System


Now we want to know how much on average are we going to get, monthly, from this system. That is easily computed using the numbers above. We know that this system’s history is 205 months long, and it had 1401 trades, which is seven trades per month on average. Evidently, this system trades very scarcely, but we can hold a basket of assets. Thus, If we manage to get a basket of 10 holdings, including pairs, crosses, indices, and metals, we could trade 70 times per month. And those trades will not overlap most of the time if the assets are chosen uncorrelated.

Based on our risk profile and the average Reward-to-risk ratio, we know that our average winning trade will be 2.2 times our average losing trade.


AvgWin = 411

AvgLoss = 187

Our winning percentage is 40%, so our losing one is 60%

Then on a 10-asset basket, there will be 28 winners and 42 losers monthly, then:

Gross Profit: 411*28 = 11,508

Gross Loss:  42*187 =  7,854

Average Monthly Net Profit =11,508 – 7,854 = 3,654

This is an average 30,4% monthly from a $12,000 balance. Not bad!


Note: The computations and graphs were done using Multicharts 11 trading platform.



Forex Market Analysis

USA VS China Trade, Inflation and Quarterly Results


Macroeconomic Outlook

Three references for the markets this week

1)      Trade relation between China and USA

  1. Last Friday it was agreed what it could be the beginning of talks that will take time
  2. Rather a constructive agreement than a bad one

2)      Inflation

  1. American inflation is the key variable this week
  2. It is expected to increase to 2.5% from previous 2.4%
  3. Currently is above the 2% target and this creates certain anxiety and can have some effect on bonds
  4. Might consider the option of a lower than expected inflation (<2.4%)
  5. Payrolls data, which was published on Friday, was 2.6% instead of 2.7% moving away from the 3% barrier
  6. The option of a lower inflation rate provides a less stressful outlook

3)      Quarterly Results

  1. Really good so far in the USA
  2. Partly because of the tax reform
  3. EPS had increased to an average of 24,8% when at the beginning it was expected to be around 17%
  4. Good so far too in Europe
  5. More European companies will publish results this week

Hence, bearing in mind a decent agreement between USA and China, the possibility of lower inflation and good corporate results, the markets should bounce and rise a little this week.

Furthermore, if the inflation turns out to be lower, it could be good for bonds and could contribute to a weaker US Dollar wich has increased significantly recently.


Technical Analysis

US Dollar Index

Daily Chart

It is possible to appreciate how the US Dollar Index, after tumbling for a couple of weeks, broke all the resistances and increased significantly. The most important resistances generated from its monthly bearish trend have been broken in one strong movement upward. Including, also, its 200-day EMA which is retesting right now. The only significant resistance that is facing now is at the 93.5 which will be the next target leaving some space for a longer run.


Daily Chart

After testing for the third time the bearish trend line on the top it dropped,  strongly breaking its two supports below it. Not only it fell after testing its resistance and breaking the upcoming supports but also, on Wednesday it broke below the third support which is currently retesting. This can be either a fake breakout or another shorting opportunity.



Daily Chart

After breaking the support, which has been holding price during its bullish trend line, it is eyeing the next solid resistance which is at a level of 1.34 more or less. After breaking the 200-day EMA, it is taking a rest. It may either retest the recent support broken which is hard as the bullish trend was really steep or test the next resistance which is closer and extending the bearish move.



Daily Chart

The dollar broke both resistances after doing a fake breakout and bouncing back from the monthly support. It has created a small bullish trend in the short term where it can be holding on until it reaches its next target which is the monthly bearish trend, currently situated at a level of 111.5. Either that or starts going sideways for the next days until it breaks one of the monthly trends.

Crude Oil

Daily Chart

Recent geopolitical events and tensions in Syria have created volatility in the markets, and consequently, the price of oil has been on the rise. After holding to the bullish trend line and breaking above $65 it did a retest of the recent resistances it just broke above. Without more resistances ahead, it has just reached the expected target of $70 per barrel. There are not any significant resistance above which leaves the door open for a longer bullish run.


Daily Chart

It bounced back from the monthly bearish trend which was the strongest one and consequently in the recent run it has just broken both two bearish weekly resistances. Last Friday it closed above the last resistance which leaves the door open for a continuation, possibly at less slow pace, of the recent bullish trend formed from testing the resistances and breaking the supports.


Forex Market Analysis

Opposing forces drive the markets in the upcoming week

Weekly Update

Regarding fundamentals, we are expecting opposing forces drive the markets in the upcoming week. Volatility has sparked bearing in mind the recent intervention of the USA in Syria. However, stock futures are up, and oil is down on hopes Syria attack a one-off.

Thus, we’ll focus on the most foreseeable variables. There are three variables that are mainly moving the markets

  • Protectionism
    • A less negative pressure in the short term as fears erase
    • Recent formal declarations by Chinese president rise expectations of a friendlier trade
    • There are still two months until Trump takes in action any tariff measure
  • Technology
    • Recent testimony by Mark Zuckerberg leaves good feelings and calms the markets
    • Relieves pressure on technology companies
  • Quarterly results
    • 2018 benefits are revised downwards
    • However, 1st quarter is expected to be robust with strong corporate volumes and margins which will be positive in the short term
Macro Data

This week there is no major macroeconomic event that will affect considerably the markets.

On Monday we have American Retail Sales which are expected to increase to 0.4% from the last- 0.1%. This can benefit the US Dollar. On Tuesday, the German ZEW Economic Sentiment can have some impact on the Euro and DAX. It is expected to decrease to -0.8 from 5.1. Finally, on Thursday, the American Manufacturing Index is released, and it is expected to decrease around one point.

In general, the macro outlook is more pessimist than positive. However, the previous three variables provide a more positive outlook and provide a better understanding than the macroeconomics events on how the markets will act this week. So that, we could expect a stabilization phase in the markets after the recent volatility. In general, slightly more positive than negative.


 USD Index

Weekly Chart


In the weekly chart, it is possible to appreciate how the USD Index is not only below the 200 EMA but also broke below the weekly support that has been retesting in the recent weeks and which has not been successful so far. In the short term is facing a bearish trend line caused by its recent devaluation.

During the first half of this week, there are not big news. However, on Wednesday, American Inflation numbers come out. It is forecasted that the core CPI will increase to 2.1% from previous 1.8%. Furthermore, on Friday, Moody’s published its USA rating, which right now has the highest rating possible with stable perspective. Hence, recent controversial policies from the American government making protectionism and a trade war a reality can alter the expectations for the mention economic events. In case the forecast does not vary the USD should not be hurt. However, an unexpected increase in the Core CPI and a rating downgrade from Moody’s can really hurt the Dollar.

Daily Chart 

The daily chart is similar to the weekly chart. The retest cannot break above the recently broken support and is facing more bearish pressure ahead. Nevertheless, it just formed double bottom pattern followed by a short-term bullish trendline. This week will be critical to know whether the bearish support is strong enough or it holds on to the current bullish trend.


Daily Chart

Regarding the EURUSD, it has been flat since February. Last month it broke its monthly bullish trend, and the consequently retest it.  From there, it has remained flat with no major fluctuations. However, with the recent uncertainties facing both the Eurozone and the USA it will not be surprising to see the EURUSD leaning towards a side. For now, it is holding at a strong resistance that dates back to September of 2017.  It is facing a couple of support and resistance which will help to know towards what side it will lean and leave the rectangle it is in now.


Daily Chart

Moving into the USDJPY, it has just bounced from a monthly bullish trend after doing a fake breakout and consequently bouncing back. A bullish trend could be considered since there are not big resistances ahead part from the 200 EMA and the recent bearish monthly trend. In the short term, there are two resistances not very strong, but that may cause a small retracement. However, the monthly support is stronger than the resistance it is locked up between.


Daily Chart

GBPUSD seems to have no limits. At the beginning of the year, the Pound broke an important bearish trendline holding to its current bullish trendline. Moreover, last week just broke another key resistance. With no more important resistance ahead it has a clear path to keep up with the current upward trend. Maybe it is possible to do small retest as we saw with the previous one.

Crude Oil

Daily Chart

Recent political events, like the recent issue of the missile attack against Syria, have created volatility in the markets and consequently, the price of oil has been on the rise. After holding to the trendline and breaking above $65 it is possible to see a retest of the recent resistances it just broke above. Without more resistances ahead, analyst set that next target is $70 per barrel.


Daily Chart

Regarding technical, it is within a bearish trend that can be prolonged as there is still uncertainty in terms of politics and the recent macroeconomics event have not been reaching the forecasted ones. However, an improvement in the economic sentiment and political stability can help the DAX to break the ahead resistance and enter a bullish trend, leaving the current flat to bearish trend it is involved in now.

As commented at the beginning, on Tuesday the German ZEW Economic Sentiment is released. Hence, it can major point to decide whether it breaks the recent resistance and follows the daily bearish trend.

© Forex.Academy

Forex Market Analysis

Tit-for-tat weighs heavy on the markets

A difficult week

It has been another difficult week in the markets, and this has been primarily down to the difficulty in assessing what the trade standoff between the US and China mean for the markets. The week started off with the market taking fright as additional tariff threats were voiced by the US, leading to a sharp sell-off in equity markets. However, much of that rhetoric was rowed back on leading to a significant bounce back actually making pre-fright highs before the SP500 started to sell off again.  This simply means that there is no overriding directional bias in either direction making this market very choppy and difficult to trade.



As a result, the Gold market responded by initially strengthening due to the fear related to the equity story but then reversed those initial gains and now trades right in the middle of significant support and resistance levels which can be clearly seen from the chart below, these significant levels are $1,357 and $1,310, so all eyes will be on these levels over the coming days and weeks to see what is next for the yellow metal.


The Crude-Oil market responded to these major global developments by initially selling off but then after seeing a bit of erratic price action we continued to see a continuation to the down side, closing the week below the $62 level.  However, from a technical perspective, the situation regarding the crude oil market is an interesting one.  We can see from the chart below that we have been in a consistent up trend since mid-June 2017, reaching a high of $66 towards the end of Jan 2018.  Since this time, this market has clearly struggled to break the $66, creating a double top end of March.  So over the last two weeks, this market has bounced back to its lower trend line.  The next few days will be interesting to see whether the support level holds and we see another attack at the $66 level or will this support level break, and we see prices pushing down to a potential structural failure below the $60 level which would put major pressure on this market to the downside.  At this crucial point, it’s hard to see whether buyers or sellers will win out.


So just to recap, over the course of the last 5 trading days, US officials made very strong statements about the need for trade tariffs to be introduced only for US officials to then row back on some of its rhetoric, as a result, market nerves were calmed, and Monday’s fear related move was subsequently reversed. The S&P rallied and then retraced, and the gold and crude oil markets came off.

US Dollar

The USD, however, has been impacted by recent events but to a lesser degree. As you can see, from the chart below, the dollar index has been in a period of consolidation since mid-Jan.  These, unfortunately, for the time being, are the market conditions in which we are trading the USD. The two major prices to keep an eye out for over the coming days and weeks is the 99.880 to the up side and 88.416 to the down side.  A move in either direction would be significant for this market.



EURUSD continues to trade within a range. Today’s weaker NFP numbers perhaps suggest that the pair might move higher next week given the fact too that from a technical perspective, the pair is trading closer to the lower end of its range as can be seen from the chart below.



USDJPY has been firmer this week, however, watch the key pivotal resistance area next week around 108.20. This was the breach that confirmed a bearish range breakout back in February.



The US Dollar paired earlier gains during Friday’s London session after data showed the US economy adding new jobs at less than half the pace economists had expected for the March month. The important Non-Farm Payrolls figure grew by just 103,000 during the recent month, which is down from 313,000 in February and far below the economist consensus for a reading of 188,000.

Separately, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% for the month when markets had been looking for a 10-basis point fall to 4.0%. Household incomes grew by 0.3% during the recent month, which is up from the 0.1% seen in February and in line with the consensus forecast of economists.


Price action largely noted limited volume in the week leading up the non-farm payroll figure but saw initial volatile swings before the USD began to weaken over the course of Friday afternoon and evening.

Trade of the week – Long GBP/USD

With the US caught up with trade issues with China causing confusion among other countries and added uncertainty across the US Dollar Forex Pairs, perhaps the best technical trade may look GBP support with better than forecast UK economic data.

With the GBP showing strength over the USD in April for the last 13 consecutive years running, speculators are now looking at this trend for the best potential buying opportunity. With good news for the pound with UK PMI slightly higher than expectations, Friday trading is seeing the pound trade up with a touch and bounce from the greater bullish trendline of 2017. The discussion now seems to favour the pound is seemingly defying the expectations of Brexit doom.


Forex Market Analysis

The Trade War could benefit South American Producers


Released: 5th April 2018.

Hot Topics:

  • The trade war could benefit South American producers.
  • The unemployment rate of European Union falls to 8.5%.
  • Climatic factor impacts on March PMI Construction.
  • The Bounce of the Stock Markets Boosts the Yen’s Crosses.
  • Indices rebound driven by possible bilateral talks between the United States and China.
  • The Canadian Dollar is showing an example of the alternation rule of the Elliott Wave theory.
  • Crude Oil Production falls to its lowest level in over a year.

The Trade War Could Benefit South American Producers.

Uncertainty due to the trade war between the United States and China continues. This time China has reacted by incorporating a 25% tariff on soybeans of US origin. It should be noted that China is the primary consumer of soybeans in the world. As a result of this increase in tariffs on American soy, it is estimated that China could turn to South American producers to meet the demand for the grain. Despite this pessimism in the economic context, the Dollar Index in the hourly chart is developing an inverted Head and Shoulder pattern as a bullish continuity configuration. The next control zone is in the range of 90.20 and 90.36, in case if we do not overcome the resistance of 90.36, we could see a potential retracement to the 89.15 area.

The Unemployment Rate of European Union Falls to 8.5%

The signs of recovery in the European economy continue. The unemployment rate of the European Union has fallen to 8.5% in February, down from 8.6% in January. According to the information provided by Eurostat, the labour market in the Eurozone has reached the lowest level since December 2008. This level of optimism has not been enough to push the Euro towards new highs. The single currency is within a range between 1.225 and 1.23, from where it could create a bottom around the levels 1.2213 and 1.224. A new bullish rally could start from here.

Climatic Factor Impacts on March PMI Construction.

The PMI of the Construction sector (MoM) plummeted sharply to 47 pts, compared to the 50.9 forecast, despite the weak data. It is the lowest level since July 2016, when it reached 45.9 pts in the context of the Brexit elections (June 23, 2016). The critical factor in the decrease in activity has been the climatic factor, remember that in March the worst snowfalls in recent years were recorded. Technically the pound is developing a pattern of Head-Shoulder, which could be contained in a more extensive setup of Head-Shoulders. This could lead to sterling up to 1.3922 in the first instance, and up to 1.3737 in the second instance. All this structure could correspond to a major degree lateral structure that takes us from the 1.373 area to reach new highs around 1.45.

The Bounce of the Stock Markets Boosts the Yen’s Crosses.

Yesterday, although tensions in the dispute of tariffs between the United States and China, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) disbursed 833 billion yen (about US $ 7.8 billion) in the purchase of Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). This level of expenditure is the highest level since September 2017, the month in which the BoJ spent 830 billion yen. This action earned the yen to start a turn in its trend; this can be seen both in the chart of the USD-JPY and EUR-JPY which have begun to show bullish patterns. For the USD-JPY pair, the closest key resistance level is 108; in the case of the EUR-JPY cross, the control level is 131.71, a level that if exceeded could lead to the price to exceed 133.5 with a maximum extension of 134.5 in the short term.

Indices Rebound Driven by Possible Bilateral Talks Between The United States and China.

Through his Twitter account, President Trump stressed that the United States is not in a trade war with China. The Trump administration indicated that it is willing to negotiate with China on the escalation of tensions between the two countries. The most significant problem as mentioned by the American President in his account on the social network is that the deficit in the American trade balance is $500 billion, which according to his words “When you’re already $500bn DOWN, you cannot lose.” With the fears of a commercial war between the Trump administration and the administration of Jinping, the indices began to recover confidence. They realised a V-turn pattern is taking the Dow Jones to close above the 24,000 pts in a day. It started lower in the global indexes. The level of resistance to control is between 24,800 pts and 24,982 pts, an area from where in case of breaking up, could take us to levels close to 26,000 pts. The key support levels are 24,034 and 23,330 pts, which coincide with the base of a bearish channel.

The Canadian Dollar is Showing an Example of the Alternation Rule of the Elliott Wave Theory.

The Loonie has made a false rut beginning a downward cycle. It is developing a long-term bullish channel as a long-term bearish formation and is reaching a zone of 1.31 and coinciding with the upper guideline of the channel. Once started, this bearish cycle has been developing five clear movements. In this case, we will highlight the corrective formations or consolidation. According to the Elliott Wave theory, the alternating rule states that after a simple corrective structure, a complex structure should be presented and vice versa. By looking at the time chart of the USD-CAD, we can see this application. The conclusion that this case leads us to is to suspect that a recession is approaching, and that could take the price to levels around the area of the complex corrective structure and then return to develop new minimums in the long term.

Crude Oil Production Falls to Its Lowest Level in Over a Year.

The production of crude oil from the countries belonging to OPEC has fallen to the lowest level in a year and a half. This is mainly due to the problems plagued by the policy of Venezuela, where production decreased by 100,000 barrels per day since February, reaching 1.51 million barrels per day according to the survey conducted by Bloomberg News. The overall level of the output of the 14 OPEC member countries fell by 170,000 barrels to 32.04 million barrels per day in March. OPEC has helped stop production as of January 2017 with the aim of boosting the price of oil, which has been currently consolidating above $60 a barrel. Structurally in the hourly chart, we observed a Head-Shoulder formation that did not reach the technical target bouncing upwards. As long as oil does not lose levels below $60.2, the dominant trend continues to be bullish.


Forex Market Analysis

Mixed Performance in the Major Pairs

Hot Topics:

  • NZD – Kiwi falls 0.46% waiting for PPI data release.
  • AUD – Making a triangulation expecting RBA Minutes.
  • JPY – Nikkei rises and pull the USDJPY.

Main currencies daily performance.

NZD – Kiwi falls 0.46% waiting for PPI data release.

In the Oceanic Session, the Statistic New Zealand (Stats NZ) will release the Producer Price Index (QoQ). The analyst consensus expects a fall in the PPI input from 1% to 0.3%, and in PPI output from 1% to 0.4%. This PPI forecast is aligned with the last CPI (QoQ) that reached 1.6% in Q4, below the 1.9% registered in Q3.

In the pair NZDUSD, we are observing the minimum recorded in the last session, which coincides with the weekly pivot point (0.73538). If the Kiwi falls below the weekly pivot, we will look for short positions up to the first weekly support level (S1 = 0.72707), which is a potential profit of approximately 80 pips.

AUD – Making a triangulation while expecting RBA Minutes.

Today the minutes of the last meeting of the Board of the Reserve Bank were announced, they decided to keep the interest rate unchanged at 1.50%. The Aussie in the hourly chart is developing a triangulation structure; in case of falling below 0.78912, it could get to drop to 0.77943. On the contrary, if it breaks higher, the objective would be 0.80097.


JPY – Nikkei rises and pull the USDJPY.

In the first session of the week, the Nikkei 225 index rose by 0.48%, and by inverse correlation pulled the USDJPY pair. The decorrelation between both instruments was commented on in our Daily Abstract on February 16th, where we mentioned that “this divergence in the correlation between the Nikkei Index and the USDJPY should be eliminated again” to converge in favour of the major trend of the indexes.

In the short-term, we will maintain long positions if the USDJPY climbs above 106.906 with the objective at 108.26 and a maximum extension at 110.

© Forex.Academy

Forex Market Analysis

DAILY ABSTRACT – 16th February 2018

Hot Topics:

  • JPY – USDJPY decorrelated with Nikkei Index.
  • DOW – Dow Jones again exceeds 25,000 pts.
  • STOCKS – Netflix incorporates Ryan Murphy into their team.




JPY – USD-JPY decorrelated with Nikkei Index.

The Yen <JPY> had the best performance against the Greenback <USD> in the day, advancing 0.78%, while the USD Dollar Index has fallen 0.47%. However, this week the Nikkei 225 <JPN225> has developed a lateralisation structure while most indices advanced, recovering losses last week. On the other hand, the USDJPY has continued to fall for the fourth consecutive session.

Our view of this divergence in the correlation between the Nikkei Index and the USDJPY is that it should be eliminated again by converging the correlation between both instruments in favour of the trend that indexes are presenting at a general level.




DOW – Dow Jones again exceeds 25,000 pts.

The industrial index Dow Jones 30 <US30> has escalated and exceeded the psychological level of 25,000 pts, climbing to 25,258 pts (1.50%) in its fifth session of gains. The Nasdaq 100 <NAS100> technological index, meanwhile, has exceeded last week’s losses, advancing over 2 percent on the session.

In the technical scenario, we continue to see a bullish continuation, the levels to be controlled as resistance are 25,539.9 and 26,138.7 pts.




STOCKS – Netflix incorporates Ryan Murphy into their team.

The online broadcast company announced on Tuesday night that it will incorporate producer Ryan Murphy to produce new series and original Netflix films. The agreement with the producer who currently works with 20th Century Fox has a cost $300 million, according to two people who know about the agreement. According to Ted Sarandos, the Netflix head of content, “Murphy has influenced the world’s cultural spirit, has reinvented genres and changed the course of television history.”

In the technical side, Netflix <NFLX> climbed 4.62%, bringing it close to historical highs, Goldman Sachs <GS> on January 23 updated its buy recommendation with a target of $250 to $315. If NFLX breaks above the resistance level of $286.81, the next resistance level is $300 as a psychological level. If it does not fall and consolidate below $236, we only consider bullish positions.


Forex Market Analysis

WEEKLY ABSTRACT – 12th to 16th February 2018

Hot Topics:

  • AUD – Employment data in the RBA spotlight.
  • USOIL – Expecting the IEA Monthly Report.
  • JPY – Observing the consolidation of economic growth.
  • US30 – Dow Jones bounces in the EMA (200).


This week the worst performance was for Crude Oil <USOil> which fell by 8.84%, just as we were predicting a few weeks ago. It would lose the support of $60 / barrel at the end of the session reaching our target profit level. We should also note that it was one of the most volatile weeks for indexes where the Dow Jones Index <US30> lost about 5% (equivalent to more than 1,200 pts.). In the currency market, we highlight the reversal of the Dollar Index <DOLLAR> that climbed by 1.39% in the week.


AUD – Employment data in the RBA spotlight.

Last week ended with reversals of 1.07% in the Aussie, in a week marked by volatility and the decision of investors to move away from the riskiest currencies. The consumption data and the rate decision by the RBA were not encouraging enough to boost the Australian dollar.

In this week, the labour market data will be released where it is expected that the unemployment rate remains unchanged; however, the analysts’ consensus expects a decrease in the level of employment change from 34.7K to 15.2K. The RBA keeps an eye on the level of employment to estimate future levels of inflation and thus assess future monetary policy decisions, which at the last Monetary Policy Meeting, they decided to keep unchanged at 1.5%.

In the technical aspect, we maintain a neutral position considering the advance of the bearish movement. We expect a limited fall to the area 0.774 to 0.763, from where we could begin to value long positions, a bearish acceleration as considerable as the previous one we see as a low probability. In the RSI we expect a second bullish divergence to be built as a sign of exhaustion.

AUD-USD 4-hour Chart ( Click image to enlarge)

USOIL – Expecting the IEA Monthly Report.

Crude Oil <USOil> last week fell 8.84%, helped by the volatility of the markets. This week the International Energy Agency (IEA) will publish its monthly report, which we hope will contribute to a new boost to the long-term trend.

Operationally, we closed our short positions that had a profit target of $59.75. We are currently evaluating the continuation of limited falls near to $57, a level where we expect to start to develop a bounce structure, in the long term we expect it to exceed $70. Before this, we must confirm that a corrective structure has been completed in the form of A-B-C.

OIL WTI daily chart ( Click image to enlarge)

JPY – Observing the consolidation of economic growth.

During the past week, along with the high volatility of the markets due to the correction of the stock markets, and the appreciation of the bond markets, the Japanese Yen has reached the base of the lateral structure that we have been monitoring since the issuance of our forecast for 2018 (issued in December 2017), reaching the minimum of 108,042.

For this week the publication of the growth level of the Japanese economy is expected. The analysts’ consensus estimates that it reaches 0.9% for the fourth quarter compared to 2.5% for the third quarter of 2017.

In the chart, we can see that the pair USD-JPY could make a final bullish move that reaches the area of 116.66, with a maximum extension of 119.45, from where we expect it to complete a higher grade connector, and then start a fall that could lead to a loss at the psychological level of 100.

USD-JPY  Daily Chart ( Click image to enlarge)

US30 – Dow Jones bounces in the EMA(200).

The last week has been the most volatile since 2016 for the stock indexes. The 30-year Note bonds have climbed to 3.14 pts and the Dow Jones index <US30> lost over 1,200 pts (over 5%). In structural terms, we expect a further fall in the bond markets, and by inverse correlation, as in the case of the USD-JPY, we expect a new bullish rally in the stock indices before a correction of greater magnitude.

TYX- 30-year Note Bond daily Chart ( Click image to enlarge)

On a technical note, it is worth noting the movement that developed the 30-year note <TYX> and the sequence that USDJPY is forming, are very similar.

Dow-30 daily Chart ( Click image to enlarge)

Forex Market Analysis

WEEKLY UPDATE from January 22 to 26, 2018


Weekly Update’s Hot Topics:



This week, the best performer was Crude Oil <USOil> with a rise of 4.48%. WTI has reached $66 (US)/Barrel, the highest level since December 2014. Despite the strikes deal between the Republican and Democrat US Senators to stop the Government shutdown, the Dollar <DOLLAR> cannot take a breath and continued falling 1.56% this week.



The Bank of Japan (BoJ) decided to keep the monetary policy and the economic stimulus unchanged. Kuroda (The Bank of Japan governor) has signalled that the BoJ might be nearing the start of policy normalisation: but not so fast. The BoJ’s members voted 8-1 to keep its interest rates and asset purchases at current levels. Also, Kuroda said inflation expectations had stopped falling. The BoJ’s perspective is that the economy will grow 1.4% in the fiscal year starting in April, with an inflation of 1.4% over the same period.

The inflation data (YoY), excluding the food component, released this week has reached 0.9%. Kuroda, speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos has said that “there are some indicators that wages and some prices have started to rise”. Also added that “there are many factors that make reaching the 2% target difficult and time-consuming, but we are finally close”.


Technically, the USD-JPY is completing a sideways consolidation macro-structure. Our vision is, if we expect the price to fall to 108.16 to 107.18, the yen could find buyers again.

USD-JPY  Daily Chart ( click on the image to enlarge)


This week the Republicans Senators have struck a deal with the Democrats to temporally stop the US Government shutdown which lasted for three days, the first shutdown since 2013. In this agreement, Democrats have accepted to vote for the bill while they will continue negotiating immigration legislation for “dreamers” (children that migrate illegally to the US). This agreement has as a deadline February 8.

The week has ended with the US GDP (QoQ) data release. The US economic growth is at 2.6%, that is lower than the expected 3% in the fourth quarter. Although the fourth-quarter GDP has been slowed, in 2017 the economic growth has gained momentum from the 0.9% reported in March 2017.


Technically, the US Dollar Index has broken down in the past week to the 88.9 level. Our vision for the next week is a limited downward turn to the 87.85 to 87.1 area, and then for it to make a potential reversal pattern to reach 91.03 level.

US Dollar Index Daily Chart ( click on the image to enlarge)



This Thursday the common currency has raised to over 1.25, the highest level since December 2014. In the last Monetary Policy Decision ECB Conference, President Mario Draghi has maintained the accommodative policy and the interest rates will remain well beyond the end of the QE.

Regarding forex risk, Draghi signalled that “now, we have downside risks relating primarily to geopolitical and especially foreign exchange markets. But by and large, the risks to growth are balanced.”

On the technical side, once the Euro reached the weekly Fibonacci level F(38.2), it has started to make a corrective move leading the pair to the 1.24235 level. Our central vision is that the Euro could start a new bearish cycle, where our first target is 1.16845.


EUR-USD  Daily Chart ( click on the image to enlarge)


In the last week of the month in the Oceanic Session, the volatility expected will come from the Inflation (QoQ) data release. The analysts expect that the CPI (QoQ) will be 0.8% and (YoY) 2.0%. Under this context, the RBA (Reserve bank of Australia) could hike the Interest Rate in the next Monetary Policy Meeting scheduled on February 6.

As has been forecasted previously, our primary vision remains bullish for the Aussie, where the long-term target is 0.8433 level from where the price could find sellers to begin to develop a major degree connector.

AUD-USD  Daily Chart ( click on the image to enlarge)

Forex Market Analysis

Daily Abstract 22nd January 2018

Daily Abstract’s Hot Topics:



Main currencies daily performance.


The US government shutdown ends after the Senate Republicans and Democrats voted to approve a temporary funding bill. Democrats have accepted to vote for the bill while they will continue negotiating immigration legislation for “dreamers.” The agreement has until the 8th February deadline.


The Buck today has moved in a range expecting an agreement between Republicans and Democrats. The bias remains bearish.


The French President Emmanuel Macron said to BBC that he would have “probably” voted to leave the EU if offered the choice in a referendum. This is not the first time that President Macron has spoken about the Frexit idea, on the 1st of May 2017, in the presidential campaign, he said that “we have to reform this Europe” or “we will have a Frexit.”

Despite the President Macron’s declarations, the Euro is still moving in a range between 1.221 and 1.227; probably the common currency is expecting for more volatility that could be helped by the German ZEW Economic Sentiment data release.



The BoJ (Bank of Japan) will release its statement on today’s Monetary Policy Meeting. The analysts do not expect changes on monetary easing despite recent signs of economic recovery, and the inflation target is below the BoJ target (0.6% real vs 2% target). Probably the Governor Haruhiko Kuroda could give signs of the reduction in the quantitative easing and the interest rate hike in the long-term.


Technically, the pair USDJPY is in a sideways structure. Our vision is that there will be a probability of a bearish continuation before a spike to 111 level for starting a downward cycle.


Forex Market Analysis

Outlook for 10.24.2017


The US Dollar is hesitant as President D. Trump told reporters he is very close to a decision about who should chair the Federal Reserve, which includes current Fed Chair, Janet Yellen. It also weighs on the US currency the rumors about Trump’s plan to reform taxes.

On the Euro front, European Central Bank is expected to announce on Thursday a possible timetable for a reduction of its asset purchases, as economic data suggest the Eurozone might witness a higher than expected economic expansion in 2017. Reducing asset purchases might, likely, be accompanied with a continuation of low interest rated, as Eurozone inflation data seems to be stable

Sideways channel movement on the EUR/USD pair

The Euro 1-hour price has been trending down since Oct, 19 when it draws an almost perfect triple top (1). Yesterday it touched Oct, 18th lows and bounced from there, and piercing up the downward trendline

Overall, the EUR/USD pair seems to trade in a sideways channel, but its current price may allow for a profitable trade, with a target touching the upper trend line (fig.1).


JP Morgan analysts are convinced that shorting the GBP is still the way to go

The GBP is, still, affected by the Brexit process, but no major news about it is expected today. Slower consumer expending and softening of economic sentiment press policymakers to keep interest rates unchanged, which weighs on the British currency.

Daniel Hui, a foreign exchange strategist at J.P. Morgan said that their conviction to short the GBP is still high because they felt UK rate hikes were “overpriced”, given the “weak starting point for UK growth” and the reality of a Brexit shock that keeps dominating the medium-term outlook.

There is evidence that today’s lows might be the start of a new up-leg that may carry GBP/USD prices up to, at least, the highs of this lateral channel

GBP/USD daily price is experiencing a sideways movement, after retracing more 70% of its upward movement from its lows in August 2017

Possible scenarios:

  1. Today’s lows (1.31653) might be the start of a new up-leg that may carry GBP/USD prices up to, at least, the highs of this lateral channel (1.32272), provided that prices cross over the downward trend line.
  2. If the price does not continue up and reverse near the BB mean, then the downward leg is continuing to its next floor, at 1.31, and a good reward to risk trade is possible at about 1.3177.


Japan was in focus yesterday, as prime minister, Shinzo Abe is back in power

Japan was in focus yesterday, as prime minister, Shinzo Abe is back in power, after his victory this weekend, that drove the yen downward yesterday. Today, we see a bounce that set prices to test the highs of yesterday’s session. Tuesday, the Japanese currency, instead of focusing on Japan’s manufacturing PMI, slightly lower in October, it seems to pay more attention to interest rate differentials.

Mid-term, the USD/JPY is trading on a lateral price channel whose low is at about 107.7 and it’s high is at 114.34. Currently, the price, trading at 113.71, is moving closer to the top of that channel.

A short-term bottom at (1) in sync with the MACD signal crossover, marks the start of a new uptrend. The red 10-period BB is sloping strongly up, so prices are heading for a test of the recent highs at (3), and, potentially break them up.

The best possible action here is to scalp on a short timeframe, such as 15 min charts or shorter, being aware that we are at the highs of a mid-term channel. Long and short-swing trades must wait for a clear signal or news event


The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is keeping an expansive monetary policy that drives Swiss CHF down

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) considers the CHF to be over-valued, so it is keeping an expansive monetary policy that is driving the Swiss currency down. The SNB policy of negative interest rates contributes to the downward currency trend.

To sum up, the Swiss economy is slowing down, its growth rate (+0.3%) is losing track compared to the one registered in the Eurozone (+2.3%) in the second 2017 quarter.

USD/CHF is at overbought but still strongly moving up

The USD/CHF weekly is on a sideways channel with a lower limit at 0.942, and an upper limit at 1.0365. Its current price – 0.9896- is at about the middle of this channel. On a daily and weekly basis, the price is in overbought territory.

Today the USD/CHF is trading strongly up, and its hourly chart is currently at overbought territory as well, with its price touching the 3rth Bollinger band (+3STD) (1). On such a strong trend, the best thing to do is wait for a price pullback to create a short-term support near the mean of the Bollinger bands (2) and set a long trade there.


Tomorrow, Australia’s quarterly inflation data will be released.

The Aussie is under pressure as the soft Chinese housing data was weaker than expected. China is a major partner for Australia, and China’s economic health shakes Australian currency for the good and the bad. The Housing Price Index grew in China by 6.3%, after an 8.3% increase in August. Next Wednesday, Australia will release its quarterly inflation figures.

AUD/USD is currently in a downtrend

The AUD/CAD pair, on a weekly chart, is moving on a downward leg, in a sideways channel that started in Jan 2015. The channel has a slight upward bias.

On the daily chart, the AUD/USD pair is down-trending after drawing a double top (July and September 2017). Actually, the price is below the -1 Bollinger Band showing that the downtrend is still in place

The most probable scenario for the AUD/USD pair is to go down to at least 0.766, or, even deeper, to touch the lower weekly trend line (0.7518). The MACD crossover to the downside confirms the bearish bias of this currency pair


USD continues to show strength against the Canadian currency. Tomorrow’s interest rate decision by the Bank of Canada will bring a confirmation (or denial) to the strong uptrend od this currency pair. The odds of a new rate hike are getting lower, after weak economic data ahead of the BoC meeting.

Canada Wholesale sales rose by just 0.5% in line with forecasts, although, it seems the market expected a bit more increment.

USD/CAD moving up with strength
The USD/CAD pair, on a weekly chart, is in the middle of a retracing trend, starting at the beginning of September, which has retraced 35% of the length of the downward move. Its daily chart shows the currency pair approaching the ceiling of a potential wide and sideways price channel. The other notable fact being, a price breakout through 1.25953, starting a new impulsive leg up.


NZ Government to reform RBNZ process to set rates.

The Kiwi dollar is under pressure since the government announced its plans to reform the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. NZ Labor-led coalition said it will modernize the bank’s process for rate-setting and adapt it into a format that was more “growth-friendly”. Giving hints about expansionist monetary policy. Analysts say the RBNZ reform is already well priced by the market, and have downplayed its impact on interest rate expectations.

NZD/USD is currently at the bottom of a down-trending channel

On a daily chart, the NZD/USD pair is trending down on a channel that started on July, 27. Actually, the price is oversold, well below the -2 Bollinger Band. The price is near a mid-term support, so it’s in the process of bottoming out, as is clearly seen in its hourly chart.

A possible scenario for the next few hours is a retracement from here to test resistance points at about 0.695. If it stalls without breaking 0.6908, and MACD turns bearish the retracement is failing, and the downtrend might resume testing the lows made in May 2017.