Tag: Daily Abstract

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Forex Market Analysis

DAILY ABSTRACT – 16th February 2018

Hot Topics:

JPY – USDJPY decorrelated with Nikkei Index.
DOW – Dow Jones again exceeds 25,000 pts.
STOCKS – Netflix incorporates Ryan Murphy into their team.

 
MAIN CURRENCIES

Hot Topics:

JPY – USDJPY decorrelated with Nikkei Index.
DOW – Dow Jones again exceeds 25,000 pts.
STOCKS – Netflix incorporates Ryan Murphy into their team.

 
MAIN CURRENCIES

Hot Topics:

  • JPY – USDJPY decorrelated with Nikkei Index.
  • DOW – Dow Jones again exceeds 25,000 pts.
  • STOCKS – Netflix incorporates Ryan Murphy into their team.

 

MAIN CURRENCIES DAILY PERFORMANCE.

 

JPY – USD-JPY decorrelated with Nikkei Index.

The Yen <JPY> had the best performance against the Greenback <USD> in the day, advancing 0.78%, while the USD Dollar Index has fallen 0.47%. However, this week the Nikkei 225 <JPN225> has developed a lateralisation structure while most indices advanced, recovering losses last week. On the other hand, the USDJPY has continued to fall for the fourth consecutive session.

Our view of this divergence in the correlation between the Nikkei Index and the USDJPY is that it should be eliminated again by converging the correlation between both instruments in favour of the trend that indexes are presenting at a general level.

 

MAIN INDICES DAILY PERFORMANCE

 

DOW – Dow Jones again exceeds 25,000 pts.

The industrial index Dow Jones 30 <US30> has escalated and exceeded the psychological level of 25,000 pts, climbing to 25,258 pts (1.50%) in its fifth session of gains. The Nasdaq 100 <NAS100> technological index, meanwhile, has exceeded last week’s losses, advancing over 2 percent on the session.

In the technical scenario, we continue to see a bullish continuation, the levels to be controlled as resistance are 25,539.9 and 26,138.7 pts.

 

US STOCKS DAILY PERFORMANCE

 

STOCKS – Netflix incorporates Ryan Murphy into their team.

The online broadcast company announced on Tuesday night that it will incorporate producer Ryan Murphy to produce new series and original Netflix films. The agreement with the producer who currently works with 20th Century Fox has a cost $300 million, according to two people who know about the agreement. According to Ted Sarandos, the Netflix head of content, “Murphy has influenced the world’s cultural spirit, has reinvented genres and changed the course of television history.”

In the technical side, Netflix <NFLX> climbed 4.62%, bringing it close to historical highs, Goldman Sachs <GS> on January 23 updated its buy recommendation with a target of $250 to $315. If NFLX breaks above the resistance level of $286.81, the next resistance level is $300 as a psychological level. If it does not fall and consolidate below $236, we only consider bullish positions.

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

DAILY ABSTRACT – 15th February 2018

 
Hot Topics:

USD – CPI above the FED target increases the probability of a rate hike
EUR – Growth level of the Eurozone suggests that tapering could start soon

 
Hot Topics:

USD – CPI above the FED target increases the probability of a rate hike
EUR – Growth level of the Eurozone suggests that tapering could start soon

 

Hot Topics:

  • USD – CPI above the FED target increases the probability of a rate hike
  • EUR – Growth level of the Eurozone suggests that tapering could start soon

 

Main currencies daily performance.

USD – CPI above the FED target increases the probability of a rate hike.

In the session on Wednesday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI) were published, discounting energy and food components. The CPI (YoY) index as of January climbed to 2.1%, above the 1.9% expected by analysts. The current level shows a consolidation in the strength of the level of consumption in the US economy; in this context, the probability of raising the interest rate in the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) increases.

 

Technically, we observe the continuation of the corrective movement that could reach the area from 88.66 to 88.44, the area from which it could form a higher grade connector (or mother wave), and begin to bounce. At the moment we maintain the neutral position in this index.

US Dollar Index 1-hour chart ( click image to enlarge)

 

EUR – Growth level of the Eurozone suggests that tapering could start soon.

The last Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (YoY) of the Eurozone published by Eurostat, has reached 2.7% for the second consecutive month, giving signs of stabilisation in the level of economic strength. In the same way, this confidence in the robustness of the economy of the Eurozone gives us indications that the tapering of the policy of quantitative easing could begin to begin very soon.

 

The single currency is developing a bullish structure that could bring the price to 1.2488, from where it could make a corrective move to 1.24190. While the EURUSD pair does not lose the 1.2275, the primary trend is bullish.

EUR-USD 1-hour chart (Click image to enlarge)

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

DAILY ABSTRACT – 9th February 2018.

Hot Topics:

  • GBP – BoE decides to maintain the interest rate unchanged at 0.5 percent.
  • USOIL – Falls in a session of high volatility in the markets.
  • USDCAD – Waiting for employment data release.

 

Main currencies daily performance

 

GBP – BoE decides to maintain the interest rate unchanged at 0.5 percent

Bank of England’s (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members decided unanimously to maintain the interest rate unchanged at 0.5 percent.  MPC members see that the UK economy will grow “only modestly over the forecasted period.”

Inflation is expected to remain around 3% in the short term, attributed mainly to oil prices. Regarding the possibility of an increase in the interest rate, BoE Governor Mark Carney pointed out that the interest rate increase is likely to be realised soon. The BoE suggested as a possibility that it might be during the month of May.

Once the decision of the BoE was published, the Cable climbed up to 1.40 (resistance level R2) from where it made a reversal movement towards the pivot point. Structurally, in the short-term, we expect more falls towards the area of 1.355 – 1.345.

GBP-USD hourly Chart ( Click image to enlarge)

USOIL – Falls in a session of high volatility in the markets.

Oil has continued its downtrend. In a day marked by high volatility, crude oil closed with losses of 2.03%. In the United States stock market, the companies correlated with oil, Exxon <XOM> and Chevron <CVX> registered declines of -1.62% and -2.13% respectively.

In the currency market, the Canadian dollar fell -0.24%.

In our short-term view, we maintain a bearish bias down to the $60 – $59 zone, from which the crude could experience a technical rebound.

OIL WTI hourly Chart ( Click image to enlarge)

USDCAD – Waiting for employment data release.

The last emission of macroeconomic data of the week comes from the Canadian Dollar, where the unemployment rate will be released. The consensus of the analysts forecasts 5.8%, while the change of employment for the month of January should register a setback around -2K.

Our technical vision is that the Loonie could make a limited upward movement to the confluence zone between the weekly resistance level R3 and the Fibonacci level F(61.8) 1.2663. From there, it could initiate a bearish move with a target profit in the weekly pivot 1.2326. The invalidation level is 1.2808.

USD-CAD 4-hour Chart ( Click image to enlarge)

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

DAILY ABSTRACT – 7th February 2018.

Hot Topics:

  • AUD – RBA maintains the monetary policy, unchanged at 1.5%.
  • NZD – Higher before employment data release.
  • DOW – Stocks bounces after the “Black Monday”.

Main currencies daily performance.

 

AUD – RBA maintains the monetary policy unchanged at 1.5%.

In the overnight session, in the last monetary policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to maintain the interest rate unchanged at 1.5% as expected by the analyst’s consensus. In the decision statement, Governor Philip Lowe said: “The low level of interest rate is continuing to support the Australian economy”. Concerning inflation, Governor Lowe added: “Inflation is low, with both CPI and underlying inflation running a little below 2%. Inflation is likely to remain low for some time”.

Although we are out of this pair, our central vision for the Aussie is to expect continuity in the bearish positions, looking for an area for structural long positions in the medium term.

AUD-USD 30-min. Chart ( Click image to enlarge)

NZD – Higher before employment data release.

Kiwi advances 0.51% in the middle of the session expecting the employment data release. The consensus foresees that unemployment will be nearer to 4.7%, a little higher than the previous rate which was 4.6%. The employment change (QoQ) expected is 0.4%, lower than the last quarter, which reached 2.2%. Despite the analyst’s forecast, the unemployment rate is at its lowest level since 2009.

In technical terms, we look for continuity in the weakness in the Kiwi, which could bring the price to the weekly support area (Weekly S1), which also has a confluence of levels with the daily support S1 (0.7244) as the target area.

NZD-USD hourly Chart ( Click image to enlarge)

DOW – Stocks bounces after “Black Monday”.

U.S. stocks start the session with a bearish gap after the high volatility registered this Monday. Exxon XOM (-7.66%), Boeing BA (-8.09%) and Cisco CSCO (-8.72%) were the ones that recorded the highest losses at the opening. As the session progressed, the technical rebound of principal stocks began. Cisco CSCO (6.60%), Microsoft MSFT (5.76%), Goldman Sachs (5.68%), Visa V (5.57%), Boeing BA (5.51%) and Chevron CVX gaining (5.48%), standing out at the end of the day. In the FAANG group, Netflix NFLX was the best performer which gained 8.82% and Amazon AMZN with 6.13%.

The Dow Jones index, on the other hand, has rebounded from the EMA of 200 periods, closing the session at the Fibonacci level F(50%) of all the registered falls; the next resistance will be level F(61.8). We maintain a neutral vision until we see how the current structure develops.

Dow-30 daily Chart ( Click image to enlarge)