DAILY ABSTRACT – 7th February 2018.


Hot Topics:

  • AUD – RBA maintains the monetary policy, unchanged at 1.5%.
  • NZD – Higher before employment data release.
  • DOW – Stocks bounces after the “Black Monday”.

Main currencies daily performance.



AUD – RBA maintains the monetary policy unchanged at 1.5%.

In the overnight session, in the last monetary policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to maintain the interest rate unchanged at 1.5% as expected by the analyst’s consensus. In the decision statement, Governor Philip Lowe said: “The low level of interest rate is continuing to support the Australian economy”. Concerning inflation, Governor Lowe added: “Inflation is low, with both CPI and underlying inflation running a little below 2%. Inflation is likely to remain low for some time”.

Although we are out of this pair, our central vision for the Aussie is to expect continuity in the bearish positions, looking for an area for structural long positions in the medium term.

AUD-USD 30-min. Chart ( Click image to enlarge)

NZD – Higher before employment data release.

Kiwi advances 0.51% in the middle of the session expecting the employment data release. The consensus foresees that unemployment will be nearer to 4.7%, a little higher than the previous rate which was 4.6%. The employment change (QoQ) expected is 0.4%, lower than the last quarter, which reached 2.2%. Despite the analyst’s forecast, the unemployment rate is at its lowest level since 2009.

In technical terms, we look for continuity in the weakness in the Kiwi, which could bring the price to the weekly support area (Weekly S1), which also has a confluence of levels with the daily support S1 (0.7244) as the target area.

NZD-USD hourly Chart ( Click image to enlarge)

DOW – Stocks bounces after “Black Monday”.

U.S. stocks start the session with a bearish gap after the high volatility registered this Monday. Exxon XOM (-7.66%), Boeing BA (-8.09%) and Cisco CSCO (-8.72%) were the ones that recorded the highest losses at the opening. As the session progressed, the technical rebound of principal stocks began. Cisco CSCO (6.60%), Microsoft MSFT (5.76%), Goldman Sachs (5.68%), Visa V (5.57%), Boeing BA (5.51%) and Chevron CVX gaining (5.48%), standing out at the end of the day. In the FAANG group, Netflix NFLX was the best performer which gained 8.82% and Amazon AMZN with 6.13%.

The Dow Jones index, on the other hand, has rebounded from the EMA of 200 periods, closing the session at the Fibonacci level F(50%) of all the registered falls; the next resistance will be level F(61.8). We maintain a neutral vision until we see how the current structure develops.

Dow-30 daily Chart ( Click image to enlarge)