Tag: Nikkei

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Forex Market Analysis

June 11 – U.S. Indices Soars As Risk-on Sentiment Heads Up

On the first trading day of the fresh week, most of the markets opened with huge gaps on the back of the uncertainty driven by the G7 meeting. However, the

On the first trading day of the fresh week, most of the markets opened with huge gaps on the back of the uncertainty driven by the G7 meeting. However, the

On the first trading day of the fresh week, most of the markets opened with huge gaps on the back of the uncertainty driven by the G7 meeting. However, the markets soon recovered despite unease after U.S. President Donald Trump inflated the threat of higher import tariffs at a rough G7 meeting. Did you miss an opportunity? No worries the game has just begun…

S&P 500 – Daily Outlook

The U.S. stock market index is trading bullish at 2,791.25, up +8.75 points and +0.31%. The S&P500 has come out of the asymmetric triangle pattern at $2,712, indicating the bull bias of investors. At the moment, the SPX is likely to face resistance near the $2,795 level.



Support    Resistance

2767.96    2780.04
2764.24    2783.76
2758.2      2789.8
Key Trading Level: 2774

 

Nikkei – Daily Outlook

Japan’s Nikkei soared more than 375 points to trade at 22,975 on Monday. Most of the bullish trend began in response to the rise in risk appetite. The risk on sentiment kicked in as the investors are very optimistic about the U.S.- North Korea meeting tomorrow.

Technically, the bearish trendline is extending a solid resistance to Nikkei at $22850. At the same time, the RSI has entered the oversold zone which is signifying the chances of a bearish reversal.



 

Support    Resistance
22184.88   22303.38
22148.28   22339.98
22089.03  22399.23
Key Trading Level: 22244.13

That’s pretty much it for now. I hope you are ready for some action tomorrow. We’ve got to deal with the U.S.-North Korea updates and the markets can remain volatile throughout the session.

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Forex Market Analysis

April 25 – Global Stocks Slips as Bond Yields Rises above 3%

S&P 500 – Daily Outlook

The U.S. stock market index SPX is trading at 2,631.25, down -4.25 points and -0.17%. Recalling our previous update, the index was

S&P 500 – Daily Outlook

The U.S. stock market index SPX is trading at 2,631.25, down -4.25 points and -0.17%. Recalling our previous update, the index was


S&P 500 – Daily Outlook

The U.S. stock market index SPX is trading at 2,631.25, down -4.25 points and -0.17%. Recalling our previous update, the index was trading in an overbought zone below 2,680 before falling down. It has already completed 61.8% retracement, and it’s likely to face support above 2,616.


Support     Resistance
2619.84     2670.44
2604.21     2686.07
2578.91     2711.37
Key Trading Level: 2645.14


Nikkei – Daily Outlook

Japan’s Nikkei dipped -62.80 points to trade at 22,215.32 on Wednesday. Most of the selling trend began in response to a weakness in the Wall Street soured risk sentiment. While the investors focused remained on rising bond yields.

Technically, the index has formed a double top pattern up at 22,350 which is likely to hold Nikkei below 22,350. The 50 periods moving average is suggesting a bullish bias with a significant support at 21,850.


Support     Resistance
22184.88      22303.38
22148.28      22339.98
22089.03     22399.23
Key Trading Level: 22244.13

That’s pretty much it for now. I hope you are ready for some action tomorrow in the wake of ECB policy decision. European Central Bank is due to release the monetary policy with wide expectations of no change in minimum bid rate. However, the press conference will be a key market mover. Don’t forget to watch it.

©Forex.Academy

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Forex Market Analysis

April 23 – S&P500 & Nikkei Dips on Rising U.S Treasury Yields

 

 
S&P 500 – Technical Outlook
At the moment, the US stock market index SPX is trading right above a strong support level of 2,660, and a

 

 
S&P 500 – Technical Outlook
At the moment, the US stock market index SPX is trading right above a strong support level of 2,660, and a

 

 

S&P 500 – Technical Outlook

At the moment, the US stock market index SPX is trading right above a strong support level of 2,660, and a break below this level can drive more bearish in the market until 2,640. Whereas, on the upper side, the index is likely to face a resistance near 2,717.

Speaking of leading indicators, the RSI and Stochastics are holding below 20, signifying a potential for a retracement. However, the SPX seems to continue trading bearish below 2674 today.

Nikkei – Technical Outlook

During the Asian session, the Japanese stock market index Nikkei fell after the heavyweight stocks such as SoftBank and Terumo lost ground, compensating gains in financials, which roused after U.S. yields rose. Moreover, the financial stocks, that trades in the foreign bonds, soared dramatically following a rise in the U.S. yields.

Technically speaking, the NKY is trading in an upward channel which is supporting it near 21,975. The 50- periods EMA is suggesting a bullish trend whereas, the RSI is massively oversold. Nikkei is likely to stay bullish above 22,166 for a target of 22,240 and 22,351.

Good luck & have an awesome day!

©Forex.Academy

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Forex Market Analysis

April 23 – 27: Top 2 Setups to Watch This Week – Dollar Index & Nikkei In Focus!

In this update, we will discuss fundamentals & technical setups, that are worth watching during the coming week. On Friday, the US dollar climbed to a two-week high vs. a

In this update, we will discuss fundamentals & technical setups, that are worth watching during the coming week. On Friday, the US dollar climbed to a two-week high vs. a

In this update, we will discuss fundamentals & technical setups, that are worth watching during the coming week. On Friday, the US dollar climbed to a two-week high vs. a basket of currencies as risk-off sentiment wanes.

 

US Dollar Index – Double Top Resistance

The Dollar Index soared dramatically after breaking a trendline resistance level at 89.70. Most of the buyers entered the market for two reasons:

– Firstly, the single currency Euro fell sharply to a two-week low vs. the greenback as the European Central Bank (ECB) is due to release its monetary policy decision in the coming week (on April 26) and traders seem to price in the dovish monetary policy. A drop in Euro is driving more bulls to the US Dollar.

– Secondly, the investors switched their investments from pound to the greenback after the Sterling extended losses in the wake of dovish remarks from the head of the BOE (Bank of England).

 

Dollar Index – Forecast

Technically, the index is overbought (RSI above 70) and bulls are exhausted. We may see a retracement up to 90 and 89.75 before seeing another bullish wave in the dollar. On the upper side, Dollar index can face a solid resistance near 90.55 and 90.85.

Nikkei 225 – Shooting Star Pattern In Play

The Japanese stock market index Nikkei gave up 0.1% to 22,162.24. The index grew 1.8% this week, its fourth straight weekly gains. However, the markets remained muted on Friday as investors didn’t find any solid reason to trade the Nikkei. But they do have it for the coming week.

The BOJ (Bank of Japan) is scheduled to release the monetary policy report on April 27. Investors appear to save their shots before the release of the policy rate. BOJ is widely expected to keep the interest rates on hold at -0.10%.

Nikkei 225 – Forecast

The Japanese index Nikkei is trading below a double top resistance level of 22,380. The leading indicators RSI and Stochastics are moving in the overbought zone and signaling a potential for a bearish reversal. Moreover, Nikkei has formed a shooting star below 22,385 which is signaling a neutral sentiment of investors. The breakout of 22,385 can lead the index to next resistance level of 22,985 and 24,000. Whereas, the support remains at 20950.

© Forex.Academy

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Forex Market Analysis

What kind of trigger could boost the Dollar?

Hot Topics:

What kind of trigger could boost the Dollar?
Will the Eurozone continue to bring weaker economic data?
Could the UK CPI have reached their peak?
Fear of a

Hot Topics:

What kind of trigger could boost the Dollar?
Will the Eurozone continue to bring weaker economic data?
Could the UK CPI have reached their peak?
Fear of a

Hot Topics:

  • What kind of trigger could boost the Dollar?
  • Will the Eurozone continue to bring weaker economic data?
  • Could the UK CPI have reached their peak?
  • Fear of a new war or do we expect a new bearish leg?
  • A new higher high in oils is expected before it starts a corrective move.
  • Downward continuation limited before the BoC decision.

What kind of trigger could boost the Dollar?

The recent tensions originated by the strike made between the US, UK, and France on Syria and the reactions of Russia condemning the act could continue to increase the volatility in the markets. Another triggering factor could be the one originated by the US Retail Sales, which fell in February -0.1%. In March the analysts’ consensus is expecting an increase near to 0.4%. In technical terms, the greenback is still in a range and could be making a bottom formation. The control levels are 88.66 to 89.16. Invalidation level is below 88.1.

 

Will the Eurozone continue to bring weaker economic data?

This week the Germany and Eurozone ZEW economic sentiment reports were released. Particularly, the level of confidence fell to 13.4 in February from 29.3 reported in January. Probably it could be produced by a stational factor, like the weather conditions (winter time). In the panoramic chart, we are watching the current structure, as a corrective formation that could reach new lows in the 1.196 – 1.20 area. The invalidation level is above 1.2476.

 

 

Could the UK CPI have reached their peak?

In the last months, the British CPI apparently reached their peak, with a CPI of 3.1% (YoY) reported in the past year in November. Then in December and January, it achieved a 3.0%, but in February in line with other activity indicators, it has shown a decrease in the economic activity. It is probable that at these levels we are witnessing a stabilisation of the economic activity. In the same way, on the chart, we are watching a potential top pattern as a mother wave that could initiate a new bearish cycle with a target at the base of the sideways channel. The invalidation level is above 1.4345.

 

 

 

Fear of a new war or do we expect a new bearish leg?

The Japanese currency is moving in an ascending diagonal pattern in search for its long-term 108 level resistance. Despite the US attacks against Syria, the price continues moving according to our vision. We expect to find sellers once the price strikes the 108.2 – 108.4 area,  starting a new bearish leg.

The correlation between the Nikkei 225 and the USDJPY pair, bring us a clue about the moves that it could make. The first scenario is a breakout above 21,957 pts for a bullish continuation move, drawing the 22,764 – 23,050 area as a target. In the second scenario, if the price moves making a new bearish leg, we expect that move to reach the 20,660 zone, making a “mother wave”  and starting a new bullish cycle.

 

A new higher high in oils is expected before it starts a corrective move.

Last week the oils, Brent and WTI, reached their highest levels since 2014. For inverse correlation and as it was envisioned by us on January 12th, the Crude Oil VIX ETF reached the Potential Reversal Zone, where it might start a bullish cycle. In practical terms, once the WTI reaches the 67.8 – 68.7 area, it is likely that it begins a corrective move.

 

And concerning Brent Oil, we could see it at a new high, to 72.9 level,  before it starts a falling move.

Falls continuation is limited before the BoC decision.

Next Wednesday 18th the Bank of Canada (BoC) Monetary Policy Meeting will take place. The analysts’ consensus expects that the decision will maintain the interest rate at 1.25%. The price is making a downward cycle since March 19th, and our vision is that the Loonie might fall to the area between 1.245 – 1.254, where it could start an upward move, at least up to 1.274. The invalidation level for the ascending movement is 1.225.

 

 

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Forex Market Analysis

Dolar Index closes bearish helped by mixed CPI data

Hot Topics:

Dolar Index closes bearish helped by mixed CPI data.
EUR-USD is losing momentum.
Manufacturing Production (YoY) falls, and pound closes slightly upward.
BoJ – Kuroda keeps the promise

Hot Topics:

Dolar Index closes bearish helped by mixed CPI data.
EUR-USD is losing momentum.
Manufacturing Production (YoY) falls, and pound closes slightly upward.
BoJ – Kuroda keeps the promise

Hot Topics:

  • Dolar Index closes bearish helped by mixed CPI data.
  • EUR-USD is losing momentum.
  • Manufacturing Production (YoY) falls, and pound closes slightly upward.
  • BoJ – Kuroda keeps the promise of monetary policy.
  • Crude Oil climbs to the highest level since 2014.

Dolar Index closes bearish helped by mixed CPI data.

The index of the greenback yesterday closed down 0.04%, finding support at level 89.03 weighed down by mixed inflation data. On the one hand, Core CPI (YoY) rose to 2.1% in March from 1.8% registered in February. On the other side, the Consumer Price Index CPI (MoM) fell to -0.1% in March, while in February it recorded an advance of 0.2%. We continue to observe the lateral range in which the price is with a bearish bias. (Click on the chart for full resolution).


 

EUR-USD is losing momentum.

The pair of the single currency is losing momentum, in the fourth consecutive trading session, the euro advanced 0.10% finding resistance at 1.2395. In an interview with Reuters, the ECB lawmaker Ardo Hansson said that the ECB “needs to be patient and eliminate its stimulus very gradually.”

Although the ECB has kept the interest rate at low levels and has maintained its policy of buying bonds, lawmakers are debating that it is time to start cutting this policy. ECB legislator Ewald Nowotny, meanwhile, said he would have “no problem” in raising the deposit rate from -0.4% to -0.2% as a means to normalise monetary policy.

In this macroeconomic context, the euro is reaching a key area in the range 1.2412 – 1.245. Should not exceed the level 1.2476, the pair could make a new bearish leg. In the long term, we still have our eyes on 1.26 as the end zone of the EUR / USD bullish cycle.

Manufacturing Production (YoY) falls, and pound closes slightly upward.

Manufacturing Production (YoY) fell to 2.5% in February well below the consensus that estimated an advance of 3.3%. The sector that was most affected was the construction sector with a decline of 1.6% in February. The National Statistics Office attributes to a large extent these low figures to the effect of severe weather.

On the technical side, we are observing a possible corrective process that could begin to be developed from area 1.42 – 1.425 with a potential level of invalidation in over 1.4345 coinciding with the highest level of the year.

 

BoJ – Kuroda keeps the promise of monetary policy.

The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, reiterated his optimistic view on the expansion of Japan’s economy, affirming that “With the improvement of the product gap and the medium to long-term inflation expectations observed, we expect that inflation will accelerate as a trend and go to 2 percent. ”

On a technical level, on the one hand, the USD-JPY is still in a limited lateral range between 106.64 and 107.49, the predominant bias is bullish and increases its probability of strength as it closes above 108. The level The invalidation of the bullish sequence is 105.66.

On the other hand, by a positive correlation concerning USDJPY, we see in the Nikkei 225 Index within a long-term bearish pattern developing an ascending diagonal formation, which in case of exceeding 21,957 could lead to exceeding 22,500 pts.

 

Crude Oil climbs to the highest level since 2014.

First, it was the turn of the Brent oil; now it is the turn of the Crude oil that has climbed to the highest levels since 2014, reaching 67.36 US $ / Barrel, while the Brent oil climbed to new highs reaching $72.69.

For the Brent Oil, although the trend is bullish, the closest resistance is $72.91, while the level of invalidation of the bullish cycle is below $67.

As with the Brent Oil, the Crude Oil is in a free climb up to $ 70.7 as long as it remains above the $64 level.

On the opposite side, by inverse correlation, the Loonie remains in free fall with a target at the base of the bullish channel, the impact zone could be between 1.2456 to 1.235.

 

 

 

 

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Forex Market Analysis

Mixed Performance in the Major Pairs

Hot Topics:

NZD – Kiwi falls 0.46% waiting for PPI data release.
AUD – Making a triangulation expecting RBA Minutes.
JPY – Nikkei rises and pull the USDJPY.

Main currencies

Hot Topics:

NZD – Kiwi falls 0.46% waiting for PPI data release.
AUD – Making a triangulation expecting RBA Minutes.
JPY – Nikkei rises and pull the USDJPY.

Main currencies

Hot Topics:

  • NZD – Kiwi falls 0.46% waiting for PPI data release.
  • AUD – Making a triangulation expecting RBA Minutes.
  • JPY – Nikkei rises and pull the USDJPY.

Main currencies daily performance.

NZD – Kiwi falls 0.46% waiting for PPI data release.

In the Oceanic Session, the Statistic New Zealand (Stats NZ) will release the Producer Price Index (QoQ). The analyst consensus expects a fall in the PPI input from 1% to 0.3%, and in PPI output from 1% to 0.4%. This PPI forecast is aligned with the last CPI (QoQ) that reached 1.6% in Q4, below the 1.9% registered in Q3.

In the pair NZDUSD, we are observing the minimum recorded in the last session, which coincides with the weekly pivot point (0.73538). If the Kiwi falls below the weekly pivot, we will look for short positions up to the first weekly support level (S1 = 0.72707), which is a potential profit of approximately 80 pips.

AUD – Making a triangulation while expecting RBA Minutes.

Today the minutes of the last meeting of the Board of the Reserve Bank were announced, they decided to keep the interest rate unchanged at 1.50%. The Aussie in the hourly chart is developing a triangulation structure; in case of falling below 0.78912, it could get to drop to 0.77943. On the contrary, if it breaks higher, the objective would be 0.80097.

 

JPY – Nikkei rises and pull the USDJPY.

In the first session of the week, the Nikkei 225 index rose by 0.48%, and by inverse correlation pulled the USDJPY pair. The decorrelation between both instruments was commented on in our Daily Abstract on February 16th, where we mentioned that “this divergence in the correlation between the Nikkei Index and the USDJPY should be eliminated again” to converge in favour of the major trend of the indexes.

In the short-term, we will maintain long positions if the USDJPY climbs above 106.906 with the objective at 108.26 and a maximum extension at 110.

© Forex.Academy

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Forex Market Analysis

DAILY ABSTRACT – 16th February 2018

Hot Topics:

JPY – USDJPY decorrelated with Nikkei Index.
DOW – Dow Jones again exceeds 25,000 pts.
STOCKS – Netflix incorporates Ryan Murphy into their team.

 
MAIN CURRENCIES

Hot Topics:

JPY – USDJPY decorrelated with Nikkei Index.
DOW – Dow Jones again exceeds 25,000 pts.
STOCKS – Netflix incorporates Ryan Murphy into their team.

 
MAIN CURRENCIES

Hot Topics:

  • JPY – USDJPY decorrelated with Nikkei Index.
  • DOW – Dow Jones again exceeds 25,000 pts.
  • STOCKS – Netflix incorporates Ryan Murphy into their team.

 

MAIN CURRENCIES DAILY PERFORMANCE.

 

JPY – USD-JPY decorrelated with Nikkei Index.

The Yen <JPY> had the best performance against the Greenback <USD> in the day, advancing 0.78%, while the USD Dollar Index has fallen 0.47%. However, this week the Nikkei 225 <JPN225> has developed a lateralisation structure while most indices advanced, recovering losses last week. On the other hand, the USDJPY has continued to fall for the fourth consecutive session.

Our view of this divergence in the correlation between the Nikkei Index and the USDJPY is that it should be eliminated again by converging the correlation between both instruments in favour of the trend that indexes are presenting at a general level.

 

MAIN INDICES DAILY PERFORMANCE

 

DOW – Dow Jones again exceeds 25,000 pts.

The industrial index Dow Jones 30 <US30> has escalated and exceeded the psychological level of 25,000 pts, climbing to 25,258 pts (1.50%) in its fifth session of gains. The Nasdaq 100 <NAS100> technological index, meanwhile, has exceeded last week’s losses, advancing over 2 percent on the session.

In the technical scenario, we continue to see a bullish continuation, the levels to be controlled as resistance are 25,539.9 and 26,138.7 pts.

 

US STOCKS DAILY PERFORMANCE

 

STOCKS – Netflix incorporates Ryan Murphy into their team.

The online broadcast company announced on Tuesday night that it will incorporate producer Ryan Murphy to produce new series and original Netflix films. The agreement with the producer who currently works with 20th Century Fox has a cost $300 million, according to two people who know about the agreement. According to Ted Sarandos, the Netflix head of content, “Murphy has influenced the world’s cultural spirit, has reinvented genres and changed the course of television history.”

In the technical side, Netflix <NFLX> climbed 4.62%, bringing it close to historical highs, Goldman Sachs <GS> on January 23 updated its buy recommendation with a target of $250 to $315. If NFLX breaks above the resistance level of $286.81, the next resistance level is $300 as a psychological level. If it does not fall and consolidate below $236, we only consider bullish positions.