Forex Market Analysis

Analysts Expect Raises on Inflation and Retail Sales Data – Forex and Indices – Daily Update – 21.08.18

Fundamental Overview

Analysts expect raises on inflation and retail sales data.

The Canadian Dollar will be the driver currency of this Friday 22nd trading session, with the release of Inflation and Core Retail Sales data. Analysts expect the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the month of May to rise to 0.4%, driven mainly by the increase in fuel and food prices; with this increase, the CPI (YoY) estimated should reach 2.5%, being higher than the 2.2% reported in April.

On the other hand, analysts foresee that core retail sales (MoM) would rise to 0.5% during the month of April, which represents an optimistic scenario since the contraction of 0.2% reported in March.

This data could contribute to the scenario of a possible hike in the interest rate by the Bank of Canada (BoC), being in line with what was commented by the BoC Governor Stephen Poloz, who stated that he expects an increase in the interest rate soon.


Technical Analysis


EURUSD bounced from the lowest level in three weeks from 1.1507 to 1.1633. Our vision is that the common currency could make a limited recovery to the 1.17 area before we see fresh lows likely in the 1.1425 zone. Invalidation level of the mid-term bearish cycle is 1.1852.


GBPUSD bounced from the PRZ forecasted at 1.3109 aided by the Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy decision. Now we should see fresh higher highs and lower highs to validate the change in bias. The short-term resistance level is at 1.3298.



The USDCHF pair broke down the short-term ascending trendline. Now we expect that the price tests the long-term ascending trendline. Our main vision for USDCHF is that it could make a new bearish leg with first support at the 0.98 level, and 0.9788 as the second support.



EURCAD could make a new higher high in the upper line of the ascending channel with a target in the 1.5533 area. After this move, if the price breaks down the short-term ascending trendline, we should see a flag pattern as a continuation of the previous movement.



GBPCAD is developing in an ascending wedge, which could see fresh highs at the 1.7732 level, as a false breakout before it falls to the long-term ascending trendline. The first support level to watch out for is 1.7455.

FTSE 100

FTSE 100 continued falling for the fifth consecutive week. In the current session, it tested support at 7,548, the low reached on June 18th. Our vision for the British index is that it could complete the corrective sequence in the 7,400 area, from where FTSE could build a new bullish connector.


DAX 30

As was commented in our previous Daily Update, the DAX 30 is moving bearish, developing a Dead Cat Bounce Pattern. In the current trading session, the German index has fallen below the May 31st low at 12,547.6. The next support level is in the 12,300 area, from where we foresee the DAX should start to bounce.


Forex Market Analysis

An Interest Rate War is Coming? – 13.06.18 Daily Update

Fundamental Overview

An Interest Rate War is Coming?

Financial Market Latest Updates: In today’s session, the Federal Reserve has decided to increase the interest rate by 0.25%, hiking it from 1.75% to 2%. Beyond commenting the Dollar Index movements or the FED Chairman Jerome Powell’s remarks at the press conference; this interest rate increase the United States is carrying out will mean a change in the course of the monetary policy for the rest of the principal Central Banks.

On the one hand, the ECB has been starting to raise the discourse of the end of the bond purchase program in June and a potential increase in the interest rate that would start from 2019. On the other hand, the Bank of Canada Governor, Stephen Poloz, has commented that there will possibly be a new increase in the interest rate in July (currently at 1.25%). The Reserve Bank of Australia is not far behind in this discourse of rate increases and considers that given the level of inflation in Australia, sooner than later there should be an interest rate hike (the current interest rate is 1.5%.)


Technical Analysis


EURUSD continues moving sideways in the pennant pattern expecting the ECB interest rate decision where we foresee that the pair makes new highs above the 1.19 level.




GBPUSD continues testing the blue box and bouncing. We expect significant moves in this pair in the next week with the BoE Monetary Policy Meeting scheduled on Thursday 21st. As long as the price does not make a 2B Pattern, a new cycle will not initiate.




USDCHF as forecasted in our previous Daily Update, made a bullish false breakout and then a bearish move. We still expect fresh lows at least to the blue box between 0.9831 and 0.9809.




EURGBP is moving sideways. In terms of the traditional Technical Analysis, we could consider the structure as an inverse head and shoulders pattern and a continuation pattern. Our main scenario is that the cross could strike the 0.8921 level mid-term.




EURJPY is testing the 130.27 resistance, forming an ascending triangle as a continuation pattern of the previous bullish move. We expect that the price reaches the 132.5 level, from where the cross should make a new bearish connector.



FTSE 100

FTSE 100 still is moving in the lateral channel. Remember that the next BoE interest rate decision meeting will take place on June 21st. Despite none of 63 economists polled by Reuters expect any move from the current 0.5%, a surprise effect of the rate hike could move the British Index considerably.




DAX 30 still is moving in the sideways corrective structure, it’s probably waiting for the ECB interest rate decision and the Mario Draghi discourse before it continues the bearish bias.



Forex Market Analysis

The Positive Data Reported in Canada could support a rate hike soon

Hot Topics:

  • The positive data reported in Canada could support a rate hike soon.
  •  The Greenback rally continues.
  • FTSE maintain the bull trend, DAX waits for ECB meeting?

Positive data reported in Canada could support a rate hike soon.

The consumer inflation (YoY) in March increased to the highest level in three years reaching 2.3%, climbing from the 2.2% reported in February. The Core Inflation (YoY) descended to 1.4% in March from the 1.5% in February. The higher oil prices have influenced inflation to rise. On the other hand, retail sales in February have increased to 0.4% from 0.1% reported in January. The Bank of Canada maintains a 2 percent inflation target; this scenario could signal an interest rate hike soon. In the last Monetary Policy meeting, the Bank of Canada decided to maintain the rate at 1.25%.

In the technical context, a correction for the Canadian Dollar group could show soon. In the EURCAD cross, we expect a bullish movement with a target placed in the 1.58 level before making new lows.

In the same way, GBPCAD is developing a bullish retracement process that could reach 1.805 – 1.81, the area from where it could make the bearish continuation of the main trend.

The Greenback rally continues.

For the fourth consecutive session, the US Dollar saw advances compared to its main competitors. The Euro has broken down its short-term consolidation structure but has been stopped by the lower trend-line of its long-term triangle pattern.

The Pound tested the 1.40 psychological level again, from where it is bouncing. We expect a retracement to a Fibonacci level before we decide to sell this pair.

The Swissy could visit the area between 0.9765 and 0.9836 before it makes a bearish cycle.

FTSE maintains the bull trend, DAX waits for ECB meeting?

The main European indices have closed with a mixed sentiment. The FTSE 100 closes the last trading session of the week climbing above the pivot level 7,326. We expect more upsides until the 7,450 – 7,520 area before it makes a bearish leg.

On the opposite side, DAX 30 could not climb up above the pivot level of 12,622. The German index could make a new bearish leg, likely to be around the 12,100 – 12,200 area before the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting and continue the bullish cycle.

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Forex Market Analysis

CAD slides in the aftermath of the BoC statement

In today’s meeting, Bank of Canada (BoC) left its interest rate unchanged, in line with expectations. It seems that overall approach of the BoC is wait-and-see, especially with respect to future hikes.

The statement notes that policy accommodation will still be needed in order to keep inflation on target while the Bank will continue to monitor economy’s sensitivity to higher interest rates.  In regards to projections, the Bank has cut Q1 GDP forecast to 1.3% from 2.5%, sees Q2 GDP at 2.5% while raising potential output growth to 1.8% in 2018-2020 period and 1.9% in 2021. In addition, the 2018 growth has been trimmed to 2.0% from 2.2% while for 2019 growth is boosted to 2.1% from the original 1.6%.

USD/CAD rose on the headline from 1.2550 to 1.2630 as the CAD hawks were not impressed with the content of the report. However, be caution since the price has already retreated 30 pips or so. As it can be seen in the chart below, the pair has moved way above  H1 100MA and touched 200 MA. In addition to the 200MA resistance on the hourly chart, the price has almost reached 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the big leg down. If it is able to close above 1.26 tonight, we expect another leg higher to test at least 50% or even key 61.8% Fibonacci level. The diagonal trend line, currently at 1.2730, will also act as an obstacle for bulls.


All in all, our advice is to wait for the price to settle down before entering any trade.

Forex Market Analysis

EZ Economic Sentiment Plunges To Its Lowest Level Since 2016

Hot Topics:

  • EZ Economic Sentiment plunges to the lowest level since 2016.
  • Pound falls after unemployment rate release.
  • Dow continues advancing with all eyes on the 25,000 pts level.
  • Expecting the Crude Oil Inventories data release.
  • Limited down movement before BoC MP decision.


EZ Economic Sentiment plunges to the lowest level since 2016.

The Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment in March dropped to 1.9, the lowest level since July 2016. The ZEW President Achim Wambach said, “The reason for this downturn in expectations can mainly be found in the international trade conflict with the United States and the current situation in the Syrian war.” 

Once the sentiment data was released, the common currency reacted dropping 0.25%. As we have envisioned, the Euro dropped from the blue box.

In the European stocks market, the German index DAX 30 continued its rally closing the session with a gain of 0.99%. The index is moving in an ascending channel; the price could still reach new highs until the 12,702 – 12825 area before starting a potential corrective move.

At the same time, the Dollar Index climbed from 88.94, the 3 weeks lowest level, advancing to its short-term pivot of 89.36. The price still is bouncing from the Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ). Invalidation level is in 88.52 level.


Pound falls after unemployment rate release.

The unemployment rate in March fell 4.2%, the lowest level in more than four decades. The GBPUSD pair plunged 0.31% from the highest level of the year. On the technical side, the pound has made a false breakout reaching 1.4376 and falling sharply below 1.43. We are now expecting a setup as a 1-2-3 pattern before we look to sell the pair.


Dow continues advancing with all eyes on the 25,000 pts level.

In the middle of the big companies earnings release, Dow Jones continued advancing, breaking up our key resistance level of 24,625 closing the session with gains of 0.59%. Our central vision is bullish with the target placed at the 25,407 level.

As result of the market risk on sentiment, the USDJPY has moved above our invalidation level (106.61), bouncing in the Potential Continuation Section (PCS); closing the session at 107.0, maintaining the bullish bias with the target placed at 108.41 level.


Expecting the Crude Oil Inventories data release.

Today, the weekly Crude Oil Inventory data released by the EIA is expected. On the technical side, the price is making a bullish channel in five movements. We estimate that Crude Oil could reach the 67.86 – 68.75 area where sellers could enter in action with their targets placed at 64 $/barrel.


Limited falls before BoC MP decision.

The most expected release for this session is the interest rate decision from the Bank of Canada. The analysts’ consensus expects that the BoC will keep its rate unchanged at 1.25%. Our vision is that the loonie could make a new low to the 1.2499 level, where it could find new buyers with their target at 1.274.

Forex Market Analysis

What kind of trigger could boost the Dollar?

Hot Topics:

  • What kind of trigger could boost the Dollar?
  • Will the Eurozone continue to bring weaker economic data?
  • Could the UK CPI have reached their peak?
  • Fear of a new war or do we expect a new bearish leg?
  • A new higher high in oils is expected before it starts a corrective move.
  • Downward continuation limited before the BoC decision.

What kind of trigger could boost the Dollar?

The recent tensions originated by the strike made between the US, UK, and France on Syria and the reactions of Russia condemning the act could continue to increase the volatility in the markets. Another triggering factor could be the one originated by the US Retail Sales, which fell in February -0.1%. In March the analysts’ consensus is expecting an increase near to 0.4%. In technical terms, the greenback is still in a range and could be making a bottom formation. The control levels are 88.66 to 89.16. Invalidation level is below 88.1.


Will the Eurozone continue to bring weaker economic data?

This week the Germany and Eurozone ZEW economic sentiment reports were released. Particularly, the level of confidence fell to 13.4 in February from 29.3 reported in January. Probably it could be produced by a stational factor, like the weather conditions (winter time). In the panoramic chart, we are watching the current structure, as a corrective formation that could reach new lows in the 1.196 – 1.20 area. The invalidation level is above 1.2476.



Could the UK CPI have reached their peak?

In the last months, the British CPI apparently reached their peak, with a CPI of 3.1% (YoY) reported in the past year in November. Then in December and January, it achieved a 3.0%, but in February in line with other activity indicators, it has shown a decrease in the economic activity. It is probable that at these levels we are witnessing a stabilisation of the economic activity. In the same way, on the chart, we are watching a potential top pattern as a mother wave that could initiate a new bearish cycle with a target at the base of the sideways channel. The invalidation level is above 1.4345.




Fear of a new war or do we expect a new bearish leg?

The Japanese currency is moving in an ascending diagonal pattern in search for its long-term 108 level resistance. Despite the US attacks against Syria, the price continues moving according to our vision. We expect to find sellers once the price strikes the 108.2 – 108.4 area,  starting a new bearish leg.

The correlation between the Nikkei 225 and the USDJPY pair, bring us a clue about the moves that it could make. The first scenario is a breakout above 21,957 pts for a bullish continuation move, drawing the 22,764 – 23,050 area as a target. In the second scenario, if the price moves making a new bearish leg, we expect that move to reach the 20,660 zone, making a “mother wave”  and starting a new bullish cycle.


A new higher high in oils is expected before it starts a corrective move.

Last week the oils, Brent and WTI, reached their highest levels since 2014. For inverse correlation and as it was envisioned by us on January 12th, the Crude Oil VIX ETF reached the Potential Reversal Zone, where it might start a bullish cycle. In practical terms, once the WTI reaches the 67.8 – 68.7 area, it is likely that it begins a corrective move.


And concerning Brent Oil, we could see it at a new high, to 72.9 level,  before it starts a falling move.

Falls continuation is limited before the BoC decision.

Next Wednesday 18th the Bank of Canada (BoC) Monetary Policy Meeting will take place. The analysts’ consensus expects that the decision will maintain the interest rate at 1.25%. The price is making a downward cycle since March 19th, and our vision is that the Loonie might fall to the area between 1.245 – 1.254, where it could start an upward move, at least up to 1.274. The invalidation level for the ascending movement is 1.225.



Forex Market Analysis

Business survey of the Bank of Canada is optimistic



Hot Topics:

  • Business survey of the Bank of Canada is optimistic.
  • How much could it cost to Facebook, the loss of users confidence?
  • Dollar Index the weakness remains..

Business survey of the Bank of Canada is optimistic.

The results shown by the survey of the Spring Business Outlook published yesterday by the Bank of Canada (BoC) reflects the confidence of the business sector, which is supported by good prospects for sales in most regions and sectors. Considering the credit conditions that remain intact, respondents continue to maintain their intentions in the increase of investments, however, expect a slight adjustment in conditions.

On the technical side, the loonie is within a bearish wedge formation. The price is testing 50% of the entire previous bullish cycle. Added to this, it has also reached and broken the psychological level of the 1.27, which is acting as support at this time. Our vision is that between the 50% and 61.8% zone, it should begin to develop a bullish movement up to the area of 1.29 – 1.30. In the short term, the dominant trend is bearish. Bullish positions are valued above 1.2745.

How much could it cost to Facebook the loss of users confidence?

The social network created by Mark Zuckerberg is still in the midst of criticism. The Facebook scandal that began with Cambridge Analytica, where it was revealed that the private data of 87 million users were sold and used with the aim of manipulating the decisions of the users and that it was later shown that the private data of the most of 2 billion users are vulnerable. It has led his CEO to have to testify in front of the United States Congress. Senator John Neely Kennedy mentioned that he agrees to regulate Facebook. Senator John Thrune, meanwhile, said that “the biggest question that Mark Zuckerberg should answer is what Facebook is responsible for what happens on its platform, how it will protect users’ data and how it intends to stop harmful behaviours instead of being forced proactively.”

The problems for the social network are not limited to the attempt to regulate their activity and control of the privacy of information, or to the campaign with the hashtag #DeleteFacebook that has been promoted since the scandal was announced. The price is developing a bearish corrective structure that is testing the long-term trend line. On the other hand, the stock has been below the 200-day exponential moving average, changing the market sentiment to bearish. Structurally, we expect the price to reach $ 149 and could fall between $ 129 to $ 121 as the target level. The closest resistances are $ 162 and $ 167, while the most relevant supports are $ 149 and $ 145.

Dollar Index the weakness remains.

The index of the green ticket continues in a lateral range, with a clear resistance in 90.3, which has not yet been overcome. The key control areas are 89.5 and 89.1, levels that could act as pivots in the medium term. Our long-term vision remains bearish with pending objectives in the area of 87.6 – 86.5.