Forex Market Analysis

An Interest Rate War is Coming? – 13.06.18 Daily Update

Fundamental Overview

An Interest Rate War is Coming?

Financial Market Latest Updates: In today’s session, the Federal Reserve has decided to increase the interest rate by 0.25%, hiking it from 1.75% to 2%. Beyond commenting the Dollar Index movements or the FED Chairman Jerome Powell’s remarks at the press conference; this interest rate increase the United States is carrying out will mean a change in the course of the monetary policy for the rest of the principal Central Banks.

On the one hand, the ECB has been starting to raise the discourse of the end of the bond purchase program in June and a potential increase in the interest rate that would start from 2019. On the other hand, the Bank of Canada Governor, Stephen Poloz, has commented that there will possibly be a new increase in the interest rate in July (currently at 1.25%). The Reserve Bank of Australia is not far behind in this discourse of rate increases and considers that given the level of inflation in Australia, sooner than later there should be an interest rate hike (the current interest rate is 1.5%.)



Technical Analysis


EURUSD continues moving sideways in the pennant pattern expecting the ECB interest rate decision where we foresee that the pair makes new highs above the 1.19 level.




GBPUSD continues testing the blue box and bouncing. We expect significant moves in this pair in the next week with the BoE Monetary Policy Meeting scheduled on Thursday 21st. As long as the price does not make a 2B Pattern, a new cycle will not initiate.




USDCHF as forecasted in our previous Daily Update, made a bullish false breakout and then a bearish move. We still expect fresh lows at least to the blue box between 0.9831 and 0.9809.




EURGBP is moving sideways. In terms of the traditional Technical Analysis, we could consider the structure as an inverse head and shoulders pattern and a continuation pattern. Our main scenario is that the cross could strike the 0.8921 level mid-term.




EURJPY is testing the 130.27 resistance, forming an ascending triangle as a continuation pattern of the previous bullish move. We expect that the price reaches the 132.5 level, from where the cross should make a new bearish connector.



FTSE 100

FTSE 100 still is moving in the lateral channel. Remember that the next BoE interest rate decision meeting will take place on June 21st. Despite none of 63 economists polled by Reuters expect any move from the current 0.5%, a surprise effect of the rate hike could move the British Index considerably.




DAX 30 still is moving in the sideways corrective structure, it’s probably waiting for the ECB interest rate decision and the Mario Draghi discourse before it continues the bearish bias.




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