Forex Market Analysis

DAX 30 Unveils Exhaustion Signals


The German DAX 30 index, which groups together the 30 most capitalized companies in Germany, shows signs of exhaustion after the rally it developed since the second half of March this year. Likewise, the Elliott wave theory’s perspective reflects the exhaustion of the bullish impulsive movement, which may be advancing in the last impulsive wave of Primary degree.

Market Sentiment Overview

The German benchmark DAX 30 shows a pause in its upward trend, consolidating the rebound that the price has been developing since March 19th when the German index found support in the yearly low located at 7,957.6 pts. Since this bottom zone, DAX 30 has advanced over 60% to date; however, this year the benchmark eases over 2.75% (YTD).


The following daily chart of the German index shows the price action running in the zone of extreme bullish sentiment. However, the shift in price below the 60-day weighted moving average reveals that it could be starting to develop a new short-term corrective process. 

Although the DAX 30 remains in the zone of extreme bullish sentiment, our market bias continues being neutral as long as the likely corrective movement is not confirmed.

Elliott Wave Outlook

The DAX 30 index overview shows a bullish impulsive sequence that looks incomplete. This five-wave structural series that began in early March 2009 currently moves in a consolidation phase, showing exhaustion signals.

In its log-scale weekly chart, the DAX 30 reveals the price moving in a possible fifth bullish wave of Primary degree identified in black. At the same time, we note that the German benchmark had developed a third wave extended of Primary degree.

According to Elliott wave theory, in an impulsive structure, there can only be one extended wave. In this context, and based on the price development formed by DAX 30, we can recognize the movement of five internal impulsive waves of Intermediate degree labeled in blue within the third wave of Primary degree. This bullish movement ended in the second half of January 2018 when DAX climbed until 13,602 pts.

On the other hand, the alternation principle between corrective waves is recognized to happen between the second and fourth waves. While the second wave performed a corrective movement that took 133 days, the fourth wave was developed in 784 days.

As for the fifth wave’s potential completion, there is still no evidence to confirm this completion. On the one hand, according to Elliott wave theory, when in an impulsive sequence, the third wave is extended, it is highly likely that the fifth wave will fail in its attempt to reach new peaks.

On the other hand, we recognize that there is no confirmation of the fulfillment of the criterion of similarity in price, time, or both between the first and fifth wave. In other words, while the first wave advanced 4,024 pts in just over two years, the fifth wave, which started in the second half of March 2020,  has grown about 5,500 pts in barely six months.

To conclude, the overall market sentiment seems to have shifted from the extreme bullish to neutral. Furthermore, the market structure shows the progress fifth wave of Primary degree progress, giving exhaustion signals. Thus, our bias for the German DAX 30 index continues being neutral.


By Eduardo Vargas

Eduardo Vargas is a technical analyst and independent trader based in Buenos Aires, Argentina. He is an Industrial Engineer and holds a Master in Finance degree. In 2008 began to trade Chilean stocks listed on IPSA. From 2013 started to trade CFDs on Forex, Commodities, Indices and ETFs markets. He analyses different markets combining the Elliott Wave analysis with Fibonacci tools. He provides a market mid-long-term vision.

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