Tag: US Dollar

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Forex Course

201. The Relationship Between The US Dollar & Crude Oil

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

There is a strong and rather undiscovered string that brings together currencies and crude oil. Price actions in one area, it forces opposing or sympathetic reactions in the other. Such a correlation persists for different reasons that include the balance of trade, resource distribution, market psychology, etc.

Additionally, crude oil makes a considerable contribution to deflationary and inflationary pressures that reinforces the inter-relationships amidst the trending periods, to downside and upside.

The Relationship Between The U.S. Dollar and Oil

Oil is quoted in U.S. dollars; therefore, each downtick, as well as an uptick in the currency or in the communities price, create a direct realignment between the numerous forex crosses and greenbacks. Such movements are not that correlated in countries without major crude oil reserve.

The Changing Scenario Of Oil Correlations

Many countries harnessed the crude oil reserved amidst the historical rise of the energy market between the 1990s and 2000s. Borrowings were made excessively to develop infrastructure, execute social programs, and expand military operations.

Post the economic collapse of 2008; the bills came to sue wherein some nations delivered whereas the others decided to double down by borrowing more against the reserved in order to rebuild the trust among their impacted economies.

The substantial burden of debt assisted in keeping high growth rates until the price of the global crude oil collapses in the year 2014. This also threw commodity-sensitive countries in a recession zone. Brazil, Canada, Russian, etc. experienced a struggling period for a couple of years while they adjusted to the plummeting values of their currencies. However, they did make a comeback between 2016 and 2017.

The pressure to sell more has spread across different groups of commodities, increasing concerns related to global deflation. Subsequently, it strengthened the correlation between commodities that were affected that include economic centres without major commodity reserves and crude oil.

Moreover, currencies in countries that have major mining reserves but inadequate energy reserves witness reduced currency value in comparison to oil-rich countries.

The U.S dollar has benefited from the decline of crude oil because the U.S economic growth is for some odd reasons compared to the trading partners, maintaining the right balance.

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Forex Course

195. Understanding The U.S. Dollar Index Numbers

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

The U.S. Dollar Index is a measure of the value of the Dollar in respect to foreign currencies as measured by the respective exchange rates. More than half of the index value of the Dollar is measured against the Euro. The British Pound, the Japanese Yen, the Swedish Krona, the Canadian Dollar, and the Swiss Franc. It is a market on its own as well as an indicator of the U.S. dollar strength on a global level. Moreover, it can also be used as the technical analysis to determine trends of various markets.

How Is The US Dollar Index calculated?

Below is the formula to calculate USDX–

USDX = 50.14348112 × EUR/USD^(-0.576) × USD/JPY^(0.136) × GBP/USD^(-0.119) × USD/CAD^(0.091) × USD/SEK^(0.042) × USD/CHF^(0.036)

Each currency value is multiplied by its weights. When the U.S. dollar is the base currency, this comes at a positive figure. On the other hand, when the U.S. dollar is used as the quoted currency; then this would come as a negative value. Additionally, pounds and euros are only countries where the U.S. dollar is used as the base currency as they are quoted in respect of the Dollar.

How To Interpret the U.S. Dollar Index?

Similar to any currency pair, there is a dedicated chart of the U.S. Dollar Index (USDX). Additionally, the index is calculated five days a week and 24 hours a day. The U.S. Dollar Index measures the value relative to a 100.000 base.

If the index value stands at 120, this means that the U.S. dollar has witnessed 20% appreciations against other currencies in the basket. This simply implies that the U.S. dollar has strengthened in comparison to other currencies. On the other hand, if the index value shows at 70, this implies a depreciation of 30%

Final Thoughts

The U.S. Dollar Index enables traders to monitor the value of the U.S. dollar in comparison to six currencies within the bracket in a single transaction. Moreover, it also assists them to hedge the bets against risks associated with the Dollar. Investors can use this index to hedge the normal movement of currency or speculate.

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Forex Elliott Wave Forex Market Analysis

EURUSD: is 1.22 at Hand?

The EURUSD pair advances in the extreme bullish sentiment range, consolidating the short-term rally that started on November 04th when the price found fresh buyers at 0.15615.

The EURUSD pair advances in the extreme bullish sentiment range, consolidating the short-term rally that started on November 04th when the price found fresh buyers at 0.15615.

The EURUSD pair advances in the extreme bullish sentiment range, consolidating the short-term rally that started on November 04th when the price found fresh buyers at 1.15615.

Technical Overview

The following 8-hour chart shows the short-term participants’ sentiment keeps pushing higher the price action. In this view, the common currency looks to consolidate the pair’s impulsive movement that began in early November.

In this chart, we can see that the current primary trend is clearly bullish. Simultaneously, the accelerated trendline identified with the green line shows the short-term bull market remains intact.

On the other hand, both the intraday sideways channel and the retracement observed in the EMA(60) to Close Index lead to a consolidation of the rally experienced by the common currency during the previous trading sessions.

Therefore, if the price action penetrates below 1.20338, the likelihood of a reversal movement in the EURUSD increases.

Short-term Technical Outlook

The short-term Elliott Wave view for the EURUSD pair unfolded in the next 4-hour chart reveals the advance in an incomplete bullish impulsive wave of Minor degree identified in green.

The EURUSD 4-hour chart illustrates the impulsive rally that began on November 04th when the price found fresh buyers at 1.16025. The price action currently looks to have completed its third wave of Minute degree labeled in black, confirmed by the broadest distance shown on the MACD oscillator. 

On the other hand, the consolidation structure in progress reveals the potential sideways advance of its fourth wave. Considering the Elliott Wave Principle, the fourth wave shouldn’t penetrate below the invalidation level located at 1.19201, which corresponds to the end of wave ((i)) in black.

Also, considering both the second wave, which looks like a simple corrective pattern, and the alternation principle on corrective waves, the fourth wave should be a complex correction. In this context, the fourth wave could be a triangle or a combination of simple waves grouped in a double-three or a triple-three formation.

Finally, the extension in terms of time should indicate the exhaustion of the bullish pressure; thus, the common currency could soon end its bullish cycle.

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Forex Assets

Shocking Facts About the GBP/USD Currency Pair

The UK and the USA always had a great relationship and similar economic views. Combining the British and American does not come out as great according to certain technical prop traders. The GBP/USD pair has some special characteristics as the third most traded currency pair. Being a very popular trading choice is not a reason […]

The UK and the USA always had a great relationship and similar economic views. Combining the British and American does not come out as great according to certain technical prop traders. The GBP/USD pair has some special characteristics as the third most traded currency pair. Being a very popular trading choice is not a reason […]

The UK and the USA always had a great relationship and similar economic views. Combining the British and American does not come out as great according to certain technical prop traders. The GBP/USD pair has some special characteristics as the third most traded currency pair. Being a very popular trading choice is not a reason for a highlight alone, even some cross pairs such as the AUD/NZD have special price action.

According to our prop trader, GBP/USD has some nuances trend following systems might have trouble with. We will focus our attention on the basic things to know about GBP/USD trading based on some very different opinions by traders, why to pay attention to additional factors on this pair, and certain trading measures. 

GBP/USD has a lot of similarities to the EUR/USD currency pair which is the worst pair you can trade described in our previous articles, according to technical traders’ opinion. Beginners should avoid the EUR/USD pair – this is certainly the opposite of what you would otherwise hear on the internet or trading books. If you are not familiar with the contrarian trader view, this is the asset most people are trading and where the big banks intervene frequently. What is even more surprising is some traders just trade this currency pair even if it does not have special advantages, the liquidity or spreads should not be a really important benefit. If we compare the two pairs we can notice they are in the top 3 most traded pairs, and both have the USD counter currency. 

The USD is the most manipulated currency yet the GBP is not far behind, it is one of the largest currency trading countries in the world after all. GBP/USD is also more volatile than the EUR/USD. Volatility is not always a bad thing, except for the scalping strategies, trend following strategies need volatility actually. Strategies, as explained in our previous articles, are volatility adaptive, making them universal to any asset. Another key characteristic for both currency pairs is USD driving the bus. In other words, the percentage change in the price or the pair is caused by the USD movements for the most part. Experienced traders know these pairs do not offer much for diversification, it is like trading the USD alone and the USD is the playground of the big banks and news events. 

About volatility, the GPB pairs are generally the most volatile if we do not count some exotics. Having a system that adapts your position sizing and protective orders accordingly to the volatility of any pair clears the risks related to it. However, expect bigger moves from GBP/USD than with EUR/USD. Interestingly, GBP/USD is also more sensitive to the news events according to measurements. Since the USD is included, events are frequent. Now, some events are more important and we are not talking just about the impact levels marked on calendars, but about the measurements each event caused the currency to move a lot. The measurements like this are not very popular, they are offered on some statistical websites for a fee, but are easily found.

You may notice if you are trading on a daily timeframe, some events are not meaningful even when regarded as highly important on calendars. As a trader, you will have to adapt your trading plans for the GBP/USD since it has peculiarities. Our technical prop traders avoid news events, so unless you have consistent results from trading the news we recommend avoiding them too, you have no control over how they are going to affect the price. Know that except for the USD, the pound is the most sensitive currency to news events. The reason comes from news aware, educated traders that react. 

Since the GBP/USD has this combo of a big mover with news event sensitivity, traders should trade this pair as they would the EUR/USD. It becomes a pair that comes after all other signals. In other words, if you have a signal from your system on EUR/GBP, and GBP/USD, do not split the position risk, trade the EUR/GBP, and ignore GBP/USD. The nature of GBP/USD increases the risk you cannot avoid if you trade it. Our articles cover some of the crosses not involving the USD so you may consult them for specialties on these currency pairs. If a system shows only the signal on GBP/USD, trade it but with reduced position size, as our prop trader recommends. 

Brexit poses a special uncertainty for the GBP, consequently also on the GBP/USD. Interestingly, EUR/GBP is still a good choice, but the GBP/USD does not follow the same system-friendly moves. Trends here are choppy, whipsaws often, and unpredictable effects ruin what you might have gained before. The events from Brexit come out of nowhere, a speech or announcements by the banks or political tensions hits the price action line like a stone drop. In 2019 the forex was pretty flat. To some opinions, the Brexit caused some much-needed volatility, allowing for trend following systems to re-engage trading, at least with reduced risk settings.

Nevertheless, caution requires us to follow the events and portals we usually do not have to if you follow our trading strategy example, also pay attention to other markets in the UK and the USA. The Brexit could be over in 2020, however, the effects and lessons from it should remain in the traders’ heads. Every country experiencing any similar long term, eventful turmoil causes the country currency value erratic. Whatsmore, the COVID-19 implications on the GBP are even more severe than in the USA if we look at the economic and pandemic measures.

When we try to make predictions, we are dealing with a very low probability we are correct. Traders that use technical trading systems do not like to predict price movements, especially not in the long term. Investors rely heavily on the fundamental analysis and they commonly make predictions based on the data, yet they react only when the results of Brexit or COVID-19 are clear. Right now the markets have multiple factors – COVID-19, Global trade war tensions and measures, very low maneuverability space left for the central banks, and an economic wave on the decline, signaling another world economic crisis. Markets never had all these very important factors at the same time which is not clearly evident on the charts. At the moment of writing this article, equities are near the record high like nothing is going on. 

The selloff on a larger scale in the equities and risk-on currencies are now very easy to trigger, posing a great opportunity for cautious forex traders. GBP is considered a mix between risk-on and risk-off currency, but nowadays a rare choice in a risk-off environment, while the USD is a risk-off currency facing presidential elections and pandemic effect. Some traders think the GBP has priced in for the worst-case Brexit scenario, the one without the agreement with the EU. This means the GBP is about to reverse but the recent COVID-19 events caused uncertainty to the point the price is actually at the right level. 

Consequently, the forex market is a bit low on volatility, as well as the equities, as before the storm. The US presidential elections are on the way making 2020 one of the most interesting years for analysis. The EUR has not priced in for Brexit, investors seem not to care about the UK-EU relations and focus on the internal struggles of the Union. The EU is facing serious doubt in the pillars that hold it together, this was especially evident during the COVID-19 pandemic where every country fought for medical supplies over other EU members. 

All things considered, technical traders do not make decisions based on these fundamental events but react only when the move on the market actually happens. However, there is an indirect pre-reaction. To conclude, GBP/USD is a more volatile version of the EUR/USD and with more news events, traders adjust their risk management accordingly. On the other hand, GBP cross pairs are great movers with quality trends. Additionally, Brexit and other major factors need to be considered and avoided, trade the GBP/USD only If there is nothing else to trade and do it with half risk. If you test your systems on this particular pair, compare the results with other GBP pairs. Systems that generate good results on EUR/USD and GBP/USD for a longer period could be worth keeping and perfecting. 

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Beginners Forex Education Forex Assets

Is the Value of the US Dollar Set to Decline?

Currently, the nation is still in the midst of the Coronavirus pandemic. Although there was some hope that precautions like masks and social distancing would lower the number of infected Americans by the summer, infection rates continue to rise with no end in sight. These trying times are also affecting the US economy and are […]

Currently, the nation is still in the midst of the Coronavirus pandemic. Although there was some hope that precautions like masks and social distancing would lower the number of infected Americans by the summer, infection rates continue to rise with no end in sight. These trying times are also affecting the US economy and are […]

Currently, the nation is still in the midst of the Coronavirus pandemic. Although there was some hope that precautions like masks and social distancing would lower the number of infected Americans by the summer, infection rates continue to rise with no end in sight. These trying times are also affecting the US economy and are forecasted to lower the value of the US dollar, which will affect forex traders across the globe. Here’s what you need to know:

  • The US government previously approved an economic relief package worth $2.2 trillion dollars in March of 2020
  • As the increased unemployment benefits are set to expire soon, the government is pressured to release another economic relief package to help many Americans that are still struggling with their mortgage or rent payments, bills, and to get by.
  • Another push for the economic rescue package comes from Americans that have been hit by reduced work hours. These people don’t qualify for the unemployment money, even though they are bringing home less money than usual, often significantly less. 

Due to these issues, the US Congress is currently considering another economic rescue payment. The exact figure of the proposed amount is in the debate, although it seems as though the package will total at least $1 trillion dollars. Some politicians are pushing for a package that would provide more relief than the previous one, with an estimated total of around $3 trillion. While the bigger package would contribute more to the US economy’s current debt, one should remember that the US government is already $23 trillion in debt.

When considering what can change the value of a currency, government debt is one of the top factors. Although only some of this debt is new, many investors previously trusted the Federal Reserve to work things out based on the recent economic expansion. Now, however, investors are beginning to doubt that the Federal Reserve can shoulder the burden as debt continues to climb, the US relationship with Germany declines, and some other world interactions that seem destructive are taking place. 

The bottom line is that investors need to remain up to date on current news and to be highly aware of any changes to the US dollar’s value, especially when taking part in forex trading. Several factors might cast a bleak light on the dollar’s value, including increased government spending, the current pandemic, and falling uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve and the US government. This doesn’t mean that you should avoid trading altogether, only that you should stay informed and pay close attention to the news during these times.

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Forex Videos

The US Printed More Money in June Than In Two Centuries!

https://youtu.be/qsTy1JTGlJc

https://youtu.be/qsTy1JTGlJc

The US Printed More Money in June Than in Two Centuries

Dan Morehead, CEO of Pantera Capital, expressed his opinion on the US, printing a shocking amount of money to support the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic.
His letter to investors states that “The United States printed more money in June alone than in the first two centuries after its creation.” Morehead continued saying that “In June, the US budget deficit, which counted $864 billion, was larger than the total debt that was incurred from 1776 through the end of 1979, which is shocking.”

Bitcoin is the way out

Morehead made it extremely clear that Pantera Capital sees Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies as a whole as the solution for the current crisis. He also highlighted the contrast of the effects of money printing in recent months, to the effects it had over the centuries:
“With that first trillion USD printed, the US defeated British imperialists, bought Alaska and made the Louisiana Purchase, defeated fascism, built the Interstate Highway System, ended the Great Depression, and went to the Moon.”
Morehead showed his distrust towards how the US handles its finance, citing the resulting inflation as the main reason any person should “get out of fiat money and get into Bitcoin.”

BTC Going to zero

Not everyone is, however, as bullish when it comes to Bitcoin as Morehead is. Goldbug Peter Schiff is also extremely concerned about the effects of money printing the US has done. He predicts that “The US is about to experience one of the greatest inflationary periods in the history of the world.”
However, he isn’t fond of Bitcoin and says that an asset with no intrinsic value will eventually go to $0. He suggests that people move their funds into gold and other precious metals.

Inflated prices 

Despite widespread fears over USD inflation, many experts actually predict that consumer prices will go into a period of deflation.
However, many believe the inflation is, at the moment, actually hidden in asset prices rather than consumer prices.
Pantera Capital revealed a simple investment strategy it has when it comes to non-fiat assets:
“Stay long on crypto until schools and daycares open. Until then, the economy won’t function properly and money will be continuously printed.”

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Forex Assets

Analyzing The ‘XAU/USD’ Financial Instrument & Determining The Trading Costs Involved

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

Gold is a precious metal and one of the most valuable assets in the market. It is considered to be a safe haven instrument and a popular asset class for hedging positions during market uncertainty. XAU/USD is the abbreviation for the pair Gold Spot against the US Dollar. XAU is the ticker for Gold Spot. It can be traded against other fiat currencies like EUR and GBP as well.

Understanding XAU/USD

Gold Spot is an asset that is traded in troy ounces (Oz). The XAU/USD market price represents the value of the US Dollar for 1 ounce (Oz) of Gold. It is quoted as 1 XAU per X USD. For example, if the current market price of XAU/USD is 1730.50, it signifies that each ounce of Gold is worth the US $1730.5.

XAU/USD Specification

Spread

Spread is the difference between the bid price and the ask price. The spread usually varies based on the account type used for execution. The approximate spread on the gold spot on ECN account and STP account is as follows:

ECN: 100 | STP: 130

Fee

Typically, brokers do not charge any type of fee. But, on ECN accounts, there is some commission you must pay the broker for opening and closing a position. However, the fee is not significantly high.

Slippage

Due to the high market liquidity and slower broker’s execution speed, slippage occurs. It is the difference between the trader’s demanded price and the price at which the broker executed the trade. Slippage can occur both in favor and against the trader.

Trading Range in XAU/USD

The trading range is a tabular representation of the volatility in the market for several different time frames. It gives the minimum, average, and maximum volatility in the pair for different time frames.

Procedure to assess Pip Ranges

  1. Add the ATR indicator to your chart
  2. Set the period to 1
  3. Add a 200-period SMA to this indicator
  4. Shrink the chart so you can assess a large time period
  5. Select your desired timeframe
  6. Measure the floor level and set this value as the min
  7. Measure the level of the 200-period SMA and set this as the average
  8. Measure the peak levels and set this as Max.

XAU/USD Cost as a Percent of the Trading Range

Cost as a percent of the trading range represents variation in the trade cost by considering the market’s time frame and volatility. Mathematically, it is the ratio of the volatility value and the total cost of the trade.

ECN Model Account

Spread = 100 | Slippage = 30 | Trading fee = 20

Total fee = Spread + Slippage + Trading fee

Total fee = 100 + 30 + 20 = 150 (pips)

STP Model Account

Spread = 130 | Slippage = 30 | Trading fee = 0

Total fee = Spread + Slippage + Trading fee

Total fee = 130 + 30 + 0 = 160 (pips)

The Ideal Timeframe to Trade XAU/USD

Gold is one of the oldest asset classes and one of the most reliable instruments as well. It is extensively traded in the market as most forex broker has XAU/USD available for trading. Its volatility and liquidity are no less than major currency pairs.

XAU/USD can be traded like any other foreign exchange pair. It, in fact, correlates with commodity currencies like AUD and NZD. Thus, traders use these two currencies in addition to USD, in order to analyze the pair. The same technical analysis applied to other markets can be used on the gold spot as well. However, the fundamentals do differ a little.

Coming to the costs, it technically remains the same for any time frame you trade. However, it relatively changes based on volatility and time frame. For example, a 1D trader who makes 2000 pips P/L on an average pays the same a 1H trader who makes 500 pips P/L on a trade. This is the reason the percentage values are higher in the 1H time frame than the 1D time frame.

Irrespective of the time frame you trade, you need to make sure that the market’s current volatility is above the average volatility. If you end trading when the volatility is at the minimum values, then you will have to pay the same costs for a trade that could not reach the target in your expected time.

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Forex Assets

Analyzing The ‘XMR/USD’ Crypto Fiat Pair

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

Monero is a private and secure cryptocurrency that was launched 18th of April 2014 as a fork of ByteCoin. It is an open-source digital currency built on a blockchain, making it opaque. With Monero, the holder will have full control over their investment and funds, and nobody will have access to their balance and transactions.

Monero is traded in exchanges under the ticker XMR. It is under the top 20 in terms of market capitalization according to data from CoinMarketCap. It can be traded against USD as well as for cryptocurrencies Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, etc.

Understanding XMR/USD

The price of XMR/USD depicts the value of the US Dollar equivalent to one Monero. It is quoted as 1 XMR per X USD. For example, if the market price of XMR/USD is 64.67, then each XMR will be worth about 65 dollars.

XMR/USD specifications

Spread

Spread is the basic difference between the bid and the ask price of the cryptocurrency. These prices are put up by the clients and not exchange. Thus, the spread constantly varies in and across exchanges.

Fee

The types of fees in cryptocurrency exchanges vary from that of equity broker and forex brokers. Most crypto exchanges charge the following fees:

  • Execution fee (Taker or Maker) – twice, for opening and closing the trade
  • 30-day trading volume fee
  • Margin opening fee, if applicable

Example

  • Short 100 XMR/USD at $64.82
  • 30-day volume fee is $0
  • Order is executed as Taker
  • With Leverage

Total cost of the order = 100 x $64.82 = $6482

Assuming the taker fee to be 0.26%, the opening fee will be – $6482 x 0.26% = $16.85

Since the trade is opened with leverage, there is 0.02% of margin opening fee collected – $6482 x 0.02% = $1.29

If the position is squared off at $60.00, the total cost of closing will be – 100 x $60.00 = $6000.  The fee for the same can be calculated as – $6000 x 0.26% = $15.60

The algebraic sum of all the fee will yield the total fee as –

$16.85 + $1.29 + $15.60 = $33.74

Trading Range in XMR/USD

A trading range is the number of units the cryptocurrency pair moves in a specific time frame, represented in US dollars as the quote currency for the pair is USD. The values basically depict the volatility in different time frames.

The following table is the trading range for 100 quantities of XMR/USD.

Note: the above values are for trading 100 units of XMR/USD. If X units of the pair are traded, then the ATR values will be,

(ATR value from the table / 1,000) x X units

Procedure to assess ATR values

  1. Add the ATR indicator to your chart.
  2. Set the period to 1
  3. Add a 200-period SMA to this indicator.
  4. Shrink the chart so you can assess a large time period
  5. Select your desired timeframe
  6. Measure the floor level and set this value as the min
  7. Measure the level of the 200-period SMA and set this as the average
  8. Measure the peak levels and set this as Max.

XMR/USD Cost as a Percent of the Trading Range

This cost as a percent represents relative the fee on the trade by considering the volatility and time frames. The percentage values are calculated by finding the ratio of each ATR value and the total fee.

Taker Execution Model

Opening = $16.85 | Margin fee = $1.29 | Closing = $15.60 | 30-day volume = $0

Total fee = Opening + Margin fee + Closing + 30-day volume = $16.85 + $1.29 + $15.60 = $33.74

Maker Execution Model

Opening = $10.37 | Margin fee = $1.29 | Closing = $9.6 | 30-day volume = $0

Total fee = Opening + Margin fee + Closing + 30-day volume = $10.37 + $1.29 + $9.6 + $0 = $21.26

*Assuming maker fee to be 0.16% the trade value.

Trading the XMR/USD

XMR is ranked 16 in market capitalization with a denominator over a thousand. It offers enough liquidity and volume for retail traders to participate in this pair. However, it is comparatively lesser than coins like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Bitcoin Cash, etc.

As far as the analysis for this pair is concerned, it is no different from analyzing other cryptocurrencies and forex pairs. Hence, you can confidently apply those concepts in Monero as well.

The cost percentages in the above tables represent how expensive or cheap trade is going to be based on the profit you make or the loss you incur. The larger the percentage, the higher is the fee. Note that we are referring to the relative fee, not the absolute fee. Irrespective of the time frame and volatility, the fee will be the same but will vary relatively. For example, a short-term trader who makes $50 on trade must pay the same fee as a long-term trader who makes $1000.

Thus, to effectively reduce your relative costs, you must understand the volatility of the market. The concept is simple; one can make money only if there is enough movement in the market. Thus, before taking a trade, you must know the current volatility of the market using the ATR indicator. If the values are above the average, then you’re good to go. But, values near the minimum value indicates that there is not much movement in the market, and it could not reach your target point within the expected time.

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Forex Assets

XTZ/USD – Trading Costs Involved While Trading This Crypto-Fiat Pair

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

Tezos is a platform that supports the development of DApps and smart contracts. It was created by an ex-Morgan Stanley analyst Arthur Breitman who launched an Initial Coin Offering (ICO) in 2017, raising $232 million. The next year, Tezos launched its beta network in July.

Tezos works by giving incentives to users willing to participate in the development of its protocol. Note that the complete network is decentralized. Users cannot mine Tezos coins as it based on the Proof-of-stake mechanism, unlike the Proof-of-Work in Bitcoin blockchain. Tezos is powered with its own XTZ token, which is created through a process called “baking.”

Understanding XTZ/USD

The price of XTZ/USD depicts the value of the US Dollar equivalent to on Tezos. It is quoted as 1 XTZ per X USD. For example, if the XTZ/USD’s market price is 2.9157, then each XTZ will be worth 2.9157 US dollars.

XTZ/USD specifications

XTZ stands 11th in terms of market capitalization on CoinMarketCap. Forex brokers typically allow trading of only the top 3 or top 5 for trading. So, most brokers do have XTZ enabled for trading. Thus, you will have to approach a cryptocurrency broker instead. They work quite differently from that of the forex broker. For example, instruments are traded in lots with forex brokers, unlike cryptocurrency exchanges.

Spread

Spread is the difference between the buying and selling price of the cryptocurrency. These prices are set by individual traders and not the exchange.  Thus, the spread always varies. Hence, we shall not be considering the spread in further calculations.

Fee

There are a number of fees charged by exchanges for trading cryptos. Below are some types of fees levied by most exchanges.

  • Execution fee (Taker or Maker)
  • 30-day trading volume fee
  • Margin opening fee, if applicable

Note that, the taker or maker fee is charged twice – for opening and closing the trade.

Example

  • Long 1,000 XTZ/USD at $2.9169
  • 30-day volume fee is 0.12%
  • Order is executed as Maker
  • Without Leverage

Total cost of the order = 1,000 x $2.9169 = $2916.9

Assuming the maker fee to be 0.16%, the opening fee will be – $2916.9 x 0.16% = $4.66

In addition, there is 0.12% fee for 30-day volume fee – $2916.9 x 0.12% = $3.50

Since the trade is opened without leverage, the margin opening fee will be $0.

If the order is closed at $2.9605, the total cost of closing will be – 1,000 x $2.9605 = $2960.5. The fee for closing will be:

$2960.5 x 0.16% = $4.73

Therefore, the total fee for this trade can be calculated as:

$4.66 + $3.50 + $4.73 = $12.89

Trading Range in XTZ/USD

The trading range in cryptocurrencies is different from that of foreign exchange. In forex, we calculated the pip movement using the ATR indicator and multiplied it with the pip value to find its worth. Since in cryptocurrency exchanges, there is no concept of pips. So, instead of representing the pip movement, we directly represent the value/worth of the price movement into the table.

The below table represents the value of the price movement for 1,000 quantities of XTZ/USD.

Note: the above values are for trading 1,000 units of XTZ/USD. If X units of the pair are traded, then the ATR values will be,

(ATR value from the table / 1,000) x X units

Procedure to assess ATR values

  1. Add the ATR indicator to your chart
  2. Set the period to 1
  3. Add a 200-period SMA to this indicator
  4. Shrink the chart so you can assess a large time period
  5. Select your desired timeframe
  6. Measure the floor level and set this value as the min
  7. Measure the level of the 200-period SMA and set this as the average
  8. Measure the peak levels and set this as Max.

XTZ/USD Cost as a Percent of the Trading Range

Cost as a percent of the trading range represents the relative cost in terms of percentage. It is calculated by finding the ratio between the total cost and the ATR value. The comprehension of it shall be discussed in the subsequent topic.

Taker Execution Model

Opening = $7.58 | Margin fee = $0 | Closing = $7.69 | 30-day volume = $3.50

Total fee = Opening + Margin fee + Closing + 30-day volume = $7.58 + $0 + $7.69 + $3.50 = $18.77

*Assuming taker fee to be 0.26% the trade value.

Maker Execution Model

Opening = $4.66 | Margin fee = $0 | Closing = $4.73 | 30-day volume = $3.50

Total fee = Opening + Margin fee + Closing + 30-day volume = $4.66 + $0 + $4.73 + $3.50 = $12.89

Interpretation of Cost as a Percent of the Trading Range

Firstly, the trading range table, in simple terms, depicts the approximate dollar profit/loss on the trade. For instance, let us consider the average value on the 4H timeframe, which is 71.5. This means that one can gain or lose an average of $71.5 in a matter of 4 hours or so.

With respect to the percentage table, the value of the percentage signifies how expensive the costs are relative to the time frame and profit or loss generated. In other sense, the cost remains the same irrespective of the time frame you trade. For example, let us consider the average percentage on the 4H time frame, which is 18.03%, and the average on the 1H, which is 34.01%. In both cases, the overall is the same, but the cost relative to the profit made, the cost appears to be higher in the 1H time frame because the profit amount is lower than the 4H time frame because there is more price movement on the 4H time frame.

Trading the XTZ/USD

Tezos is under the top 15 in market capitalization according to the data from CoinMarketCap. This signifies that it is intensively traded in the market. Most of the buying and selling happens in the cryptocurrency exchanges.

There are two types of traders – short term and long term. A short term trader may trade the 1H, 2H, 4H, or the 1D time frame, while a long term trader may go with the 1W or 1M time frame. Also, irrespective of the time frame, one must trade when the market volatility is around the average, or maximum value to relatively reduce fees on the trade.

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Forex Assets

‘LTC/USD’ – Understanding The Crypto/Fiat Pair & Trading Costs Involved

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

Cryptocurrencies are traded in pairs by pairing them with a fiat currency. Always, the cryptocurrency is written on the left and the fiat currency on the right. LTC/USD is a cryptocurrency, which is an abbreviation for the Litecoin versus the US Dollar. Like the Bitcoin and Ethereum, Litecoin is extensively traded in the exchange market.

Understanding LTC/USD

The market price of LTCUSD depicts the value of the US Dollar, which is equivalent to 1 Litecoin. It is quoted as 1 LTC per X USD. For example, if the value of LTCUSD is 41.69, then one Litecoin is worth 41.69 US Dollars.

LTC/USD specifications

Spread

Spread is the difference between the bid and the ask price in the market, where bid price is given considered when shorting a pair and ask price when going long on a pair. The varies from broker to broker. It also differs based on the type of execution model used. Below are the spreads for the LTC/USD pair for both ECN & STP accounts.

  • Spread on ECN: 50 pips (0.5 USD)
  • Spread on STP: 60 pips (0.6 USD)

Fee

ECN brokers charge some commission on every position a trader opens and closes. The fee for ECN accounts is about $0.18 per standard lot, which corresponds to 18 pips.

Slippage

Slippage is the difference between the price asked by the user and the price given by the broker. There is this difference due to two reasons – High market volatility & broker’s execution speed.

Trading Range in LTC/USD

Below is the trading range table for the LTCUSD, which represents the minimum, average, and maximum volatilities of a pair for different timeframes using the ATR indicator. These values can prove to be helpful for assessing one’s profit/loss on a trade.

Procedure to assess Pip Ranges

  1. Add the ATR indicator to your chart
  2. Set the period to 1
  3. Add a 200-period SMA to this indicator
  4. Shrink the chart so you can assess a large time period
  5. Select your desired timeframe
  6. Measure the floor level and set this value as the min
  7. Measure the level of the 200-period SMA and set this as the average
  8. Measure the peak levels and set this as Max.

LTC/USD Cost as a Percent of the Trading Range

The cost as a percent of the trading range represents the variation of cost on a trade based on the change in the volatility of the market. And these variations are indicated as a percentage. Using the magnitude of the percentages, we shall determine the ideal times of the day to trade this coin.

ECN Model Account

Spread = 50 | Slippage = 5 |Trading fee = 18

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 18 + 50 + 5 = 73

STP Model Account

Spread = 60 | Slippage = 5 | Trading fee = 0Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 5 + 60 + 0 = 65

Trading the LTC/USD

LTCUSD is a crypto-fiat pair that has got enough volatility and liquidity to trade in the market. LTC is the fourth highest traded coin in terms of volume. However, it is not apt to trade anytime during the day. There are ways through which one reduces their costs for the same trade.

In the above table, if the percentages are high, then the costs are very high and vice versa. So, the cost is more for low volatile markets and less for high volatile markets. If you are a scalper or short-term trader, you may trade when the volatility is high as the profit margin is small, and you can avoid high costs.

Positional traders – these traders usually aim for large movements, and high costs become a little insignificant for their big pip movements. So, such traders may trade when the volatility is around the average values. Finally, it is not advisable to trade during low volatilities because the costs are high, and there is barely any movement in the market.

Slippage is a variable in total costs that can be eliminated by placing orders as ‘limit’ or ‘stop.’ We hope you found this analysis on LTCUSD useful. Stay tuned for more informative content. Cheers.

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Forex Assets

Exploring The ETH/USD Pair & The Relative Costs Involved

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

Trading cryptocurrencies is similar to trading in the Forex market, but the only difference being, both base and quote currencies are not fiat currencies. In crypto pairs, one of them is a virtual currency, and the other is a fiat currency. ETH/USD is a cryptocurrency pair, which is an abbreviation for Ethereum against the US Dollar. Participants can trade them via Forex brokers or through cryptocurrency exchanges.

Understanding ETH/USD

The value of ETHUSD represents the value of the US Dollar that is required to purchase one. It is quoted as 1 ETH per X USD. For instance, if the market price of ETHUSD is 170.46, then around 170 US Dollars are needed to buy one ETH.

ETH/USD Specifications 

Spread

The difference between the bid price and the ask price marked by the brokers is called the spread. Spread is the main source of revenue for brokers. Spread on major and minor currency pairs is typically very low. But, in cryptocurrencies, the spread is usually high. Below are the spread values of ECN & STP accounts for the ETH/USD pair.

  • Spread on ECN: 200 pips (2 USD)
  • Spread on STP: 250 pips (2.5 USD)

Fee

A Fee is applicable only on ECN accounts and the pro accounts of brokers. Typically, it is between 40-50 pips.

Slippage

Slippage is the difference between the price at which a trader opened a position and the price given by the broker. Due to the high volatility of the market and slow execution by the brokers, slippage occurs.

Trading Range in ETH/USD

Below is the representation of the volatility from minimum to maximum for ETHUSD in different timeframes. These numbers are very helpful in assessing one’s risk on a trade.  

Procedure to assess Pip Ranges

  1. Add the ATR indicator to your chart
  2. Set the period to 1
  3. Add a 200-period SMA to this indicator
  4. Shrink the chart so you can assess a large time period
  5. Select your desired timeframe
  6. Measure the floor level and set this value as the min
  7. Measure the level of the 200-period SMA and set this as the average
  8. Measure the peak levels and set this as Max.

ETH/USD Cost as a Percent of the Trading Range

With the application of the volatility values with the total cost on the trade, the variation in the cost of a trade can be assessed. To do so, the ratio between the total cost and volatility is taken and expressed in terms of a percentage.

The magnitude of the costs represents how high the costs are. If the percentages are large, it indicates high costs and vice versa.

ECN Model Account

Spread = 200 | Slippage = 15 |Trading fee = 45

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 15 + 200 + 45 = 260

STP Model Account

Spread = 250 | Slippage = 15 | Trading fee = 0

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 15 + 250 + 0 = 265

Trading the ETH/USD

Cryptocurrencies can be traded just like any other asset. In ETHUSD, the volatility is good enough for both short-term and long-term traders. Though the volatility values appear to be high, they don’t have a large reflection on your profit/loss. This is because, unlike forex currencies where one lot was equivalent to 100,000 units of the base currency, one lot in ETHUSD represents only 10 units of ETH.

From the above volatility table, it is seen that the costs are more when the volatility of the market is low and is less when the volatility is high. So, trading this pair majorly depends on the type of trader you are. For example, scalpers might trade when the volatility is high to get the greatest number of pips in a short amount of time. If they do so, they can get the benefit of lower costs.

In general, costs on a trade can be reduced by placing orders as ‘limit’ or ‘stop.’ In such orders, the slippage becomes nil. Hence, the total cost would be brought down to a good extent. The cost variations for limit orders or stop orders are given below for your reference and comparison.

ECN Model Account (Using Limit Orders)

Spread = 200 | Slippage = 0 |Trading fee = 45

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 0 + 200 + 45 = 245

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Forex Assets

Analyzing The USD/BND Forex Currency Pair

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

USD/BND is the abbreviation for the US Dollar against the Brunei Dollar. Brunei is located on the Asian continent, and this pair is classified as an emerging currency pair. In the USD/BND, USD is the base currency, and BND is the quote currency.

Understanding USD/BND

The market price of this currency pair specifies the value of BND equivalent to one USD. It is quoted as 1 USD per X BND. For example, if the value of this pair is 1.3711, then these many units of the quote currency (BND) are required to purchase one unit of the base currency (USD).

Spread

The difference between the bid and the ask price is called the spread. The spread varies from broker to broker and also by execution model used.

ECN: 5 pips | STP: 8 pips

Fees

A fee is a synonym for commission. This is similar to the one that is paid to the stockbrokers. Below is the fee on ECN and STP brokers.

Fee on ECN – 0 pips | Fee on STP – 5-10 pips

Slippage

The difference between the price requested by you and the price you actually received from the broker is called slippage. There are two reasons for slippage to place:

  • Market volatility
  • Broker’s execution speed

Trading Range in USD/BND

A trading range is a tabular representation of the minimum, average, and the maximum volatility of this currency pair. And these values help in determining the profit/loss of a trade in a given timeframe. Hence, this is a great risk management tool for traders.

Procedure to assess Pip Ranges

  1. Add the ATR indicator to your chart
  2. Set the period to 1
  3. Add a 200-period SMA to this indicator
  4. Shrink the chart so you can assess a large time period
  5. Select your desired timeframe
  6. Measure the floor level and set this value as the min
  7. Measure the level of the 200-period SMA and set this as the average
  8. Measure the peak levels and set this as Max.

USD/BND Cost as a Percent of the Trading Range

The cost as a percent of the trading range is the representation of the cost variation in a trade for different volatilities are timeframes. This variation is represented as a percentage. The magnitude of these percentages depicts the highness and lowness of a trade.

ECN Model Account

Spread = 5 | Slippage = 3 |Trading fee = 3

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 3 + 5 + 3 = 11

STP Model Account

Spread = 8 | Slippage = 3 | Trading fee = 0

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 3 + 8 + 0 = 11

The Ideal way to trade the USD/BND

Trading the USD/BND is simple. This pair is not so volatile, like the other emerging pairs. Moreover, the spreads are low too.

From the above tables, we can see that the percentage values are pretty high in the minimum column, and comparatively lower in the max column. This means that the costs are high for low volatile markets and low for high volatile markets. So, traders who need high volatility may enjoy low costs. And trades who want to minimize their risk and trade low volatile markets will have to bear higher costs. Finally, traders who need a balance between the two may trade when the volatility of the market is around the average values. This will ensure the equilibrium between volatility and costs.

Moreover, there is a way through which you can cut off the slippage on your trade. Placing orders as limit orders instead of market orders will take away the slippage and bring down the total cost on the trade. So, in our example, the total cost would reduce by three pips.

We hope this article will change the way you trade this currency pair. Happy trading!

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Forex Assets

Analyzing The USD/MAD Forex Currency Pair

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

USD/MAD is the abbreviation for the US dollar against the Moroccan Dirham. This pair is classified as an emerging currency pair in the forex market. In this pair, USD is the base currency, and MAD is the quote currency. Typically. It is seen that this pair has pretty low volatility and liquidity. However, it can still be traded under certain conditions.

Understanding USD/MAD

The market price of this currency pair determines the value of MAD that is equivalent to one USD. For instance, if the current market price of USD/MAD is 9.5867, then these many Moroccan Dirhams are required to purchase one USD.

Spread

The difference between the bid price and the ask price is referred to as the spread. This is the primary way through which brokers generate revenue. Spread is a variable and is different with different brokers. It also differs based on the execution model used by the broker.

ECN: 35 pips | STP: 40 pips

Fees

The commission paid on each trade is the fee on that trade. Note that, the concept of the fee is only ECN accounts and not STP accounts. The fee on ECN accounts is typically between 5-10 pips.

Slippage

Slippage is the difference between the price intended by the client and the price that is actually executed by the broker. There is this difference due to two reasons:

  • Market’s volatility
  • Broker’s execution speed

Trading Range in USD/MAD

The trading range is the tabular representation of the volatility of the market in different timeframes. These values help in assessing the minimum, average, and maximum profit/loss in six different timeframes.

Procedure to assess Pip Ranges

  1. Add the ATR indicator to your chart
  2. Set the period to 1
  3. Add a 200-period SMA to this indicator
  4. Shrink the chart so you can assess a large time period
  5. Select your desired timeframe
  6. Measure the floor level and set this value as the min
  7. Measure the level of the 200-period SMA and set this as the average
  8. Measure the peak levels and set this as Max.

USD/MAD Cost as a Percent of the Trading Range

The total cost of the trade is calculated by adding up the slippage, spread, and the trading fee. It is not constant but varies based on the volatility of the market. Below are tables that represent how costs vary for different timeframes and volatilities.

ECN Model Account

Spread = 35 | Slippage = 3 |Trading fee = 3

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 3 + 35 + 3 = 41

STP Model Account

Spread = 40 | Slippage = 3 | Trading fee = 0

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 3 + 40 + 0 = 43

The Ideal way to trade the USD/MAD

Starting off from the trading range table, we can see that the volatility of this pair is quite high. The spread, too, is higher than other emerging pairs. So, it is not really ideal to trade at any time in 24 hours.

When we have a look at the cost percentage tables, we can see that the percentages are high in the minimum column, and low in the max column. This implies that the costs are high during low volatilities, and costs are low during high volatilities. So, the best time to trade this pair is when the volatility is around the average values because this assures decent volatility as well as affordable costs.

Furthermore, the costs can be reduced by placing orders as ‘limit’ instead of ‘market’. In doing so, the slippage on the total costs will be made zero. So, spread and trading fee will be the only factors involved in calculating the total cost.

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Forex Assets

Understanding The USD/INR Forex Currency Pair

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

USD/INR is the abbreviation for the US Dollar against the Indian Rupee. This Asian pair is classified as an emerging currency pair. Here, the US Dollar is the base currency, and the INR is the quote currency.

Understanding USD/INR

The price in the market determines how much the Indian Rupee worth with respect to the US Dollar is. It is quoted as 1 USD per X INR. So, if the market price of USDINR is 71.46, then around ₹71 is required to purchase $1.

Spread

Spread in foreign exchange, is the difference between the bid and the ask price of the currency pair. This is the primary way through which brokers generate revenue. Spread is typically decided by the brokers itself. And it varies based on the type of execution model implemented by the brokers.

ECN: 19 pips | STP: 20 pips

Fees

Out of the two types of execution models, there is a fee, only on ECN accounts. Typically, there is no fee on STP accounts. However, this is compensated by higher spreads.

Slippage

Slippage is the difference between the price demanded by the user and the price he received by the broker. There is always this difference when orders are executed by the market. There are a couple of reasons for its occurrence.

  • Broker’s execution speed
  • Market’s volatility

Trading Range in USD/INR

The minimum, average, and maximum volatility of the currency pair in different timeframes are represented in the below trading range table. These values help us calculate the profit or loss that can be made in a given amount of time. Hence, this table is a great risk management tool.

 Procedure to assess Pip Ranges

  1. Add the ATR indicator to your chart
  2. Set the period to 1
  3. Add a 200-period SMA to this indicator
  4. Shrink the chart so you can determine a significant period
  5. Select your desired timeframe
  6. Measure the floor level and set this value as the min
  7. Measure the level of the 200-period SMA and set this as the average
  8. Measure the peak levels and set this as Max.

USD/INR Cost as a Percent of the Trading Range

The costs as a percent of the trading range are the representation of the variation of the costs for different volatilities and timeframes. Understanding this cost variation helps in determining the ideal times of the day to trade this currency pair, which shall be discussed in the subsequent sections.

ECN Model Account

Spread = 19 | Slippage = 3 |Trading fee = 3

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 3 + 19 + 3 = 25

STP Model Account

Spread = 20 | Slippage = 3 | Trading fee = 0

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 3 + 20 + 0 = 23

The Ideal way to trade the USD/INR

Before getting into it, let’s first comprehend the below tables. The greater the values of the percentage, the greater is the cost of the trade. Similarly, the lower the values, the lesser is the total cost of the trade. Also, costs are inversely proportional to the volatility of the market.

From the above tables, we can ascertain that the values are higher in the min column, and gradually increases in the up to the max column. This means that the costs are high when the volatility of the market is low. The costs are neither too high nor too low for average volatility. Hence, if you are a trader who requires moderate volatility and low costs, then you may trade when the volatility of the market is around the average values.

Note: The current volatility of the market can be obtained from the ATR indicator.

There is another way through which one can considerably reduce their costs. By executing trades via limit/stop orders instead of market orders, the slippage on the trade will be waived off from the total costs. This brings down the costs significantly. For example, if the slippage on the trade is five pips, then five pips will be reduced in calculating the total costs on the trade.

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Forex Assets

Assessing The USD/UAH Exotic Forex Currency Pair

Introduction

Introduction

USD/UAH is the abbreviation for the currency pair US dollar against the Ukrainian Hryvnia. It is classified as an emerging currency pair. The volatility, liquidity, and volume in this pair, is significantly low. In this pair, the US dollar is the base currency, and UAH is the quote currency.

Understanding USD/UAH

The value of the pair as a whole represents the value of UAH that is equivalent to one US dollar. It is quoted as 1 USD per X UAH. For instance, if the value of USDUAH is 24.19, then about 24 Hryvnias are required to purchase one US dollar.

Spread

The difference between the bid price and the ask price is referred to as the spread. Spread usually varies from broker to broker, and also on the execution model used by the brokers.

ECN: 20 pips | STP: 23 pips

Fees

As the name pretty much suggests, the fee is the charge paid to the broker on each trade. Below is the fee on ECN and STP accounts.

ECN – 5-10 pips | STP – 0 pips

Slippage

Due to the changes in the volatility and the broker’s execution speed on the trade, a trader does not get the exact price he needed. And the difference between the two prices is called slippage.

Trading Range in USD/UAH

Risk management is a vital factor in trading. The trading range is a tabular representation of the pip movement in a currency pair in different timeframes. And these values help in determining the gain or loss on a trade.

Note: The product of the pip movement value and the pip value (per standard lot) yields the profit/loss in a trade for a particular timeframe.

Procedure to assess Pip Ranges

  1. Add the ATR indicator to your chart
  2. Set the period to 1
  3. Add a 200-period SMA to this indicator
  4. Shrink the chart so you can determine a large time period
  5. Select your desired timeframe
  6. Measure the floor level and set this value as the min
  7. Measure the level of the 200-period SMA and set this as the average
  8. Measure the peak levels and set this as Max.

USD/UAH Cost as a Percent of the Trading Range

The total cost of a trade is determined by the sum of the spread, slippage, and the trading fee. And this varies from time to time, based on the volatility of the market. Below are the tables that represent the costs for different volatilities and timeframes.

ECN Model Account

Spread = 20 | Slippage = 3 |Trading fee = 5

Total cost = Spread + Slippage + Trading Fee = 20 + 3 + 5 = 28

STP Model Account

Spread = 23 | Slippage = 3 |Trading fee = 5

Total cost = Spread + Slippage + Trading Fee = 23 + 3 + 5 = 31

The Ideal way to trade the USD/UAH

Firstly, the percentage values depict the cost variation on the trade. The magnitude of the percentage is directly proportional to the cost of the trade.

We can see that the minimum pip movement in 1H, 2H, and 4H timeframe is 0 pips. So, it is pointless to trade in the lower timeframes. However, one may trade this pair on the higher timeframes, like the 1D, 1W, and 1M. To reduce costs even further and to have decent volatility, one may preferably trade when the volatility of the market is above the average values.

Furthermore, limit orders is another way through which a trader can bring down their costs considerably. This is because limit orders, unlike the market orders, do not have any slippage on it. For instance, the total cost on an ECN account for limit orders would be,

Total cost = Spread + Slippage + Trading Fee = 20 + 0 + 5 = 25

Corollary

We can see that on average volatilities, it almost takes a week range to cover the costs if the trade goes in the direction of the trade.  That means this pair is unsuitable to trade short-term. The use of limit orders to catch the price entry at the absolute minimum of the week, combined with ultra-reliable timing, is the only way to succeed. There are lots of better pairs to choose from.

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Forex Assets

Analyzing The USD/EGP Exotic Forex Currency Pair

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

USDEGP is the abbreviation for the US Dollar against the Egyptian Pound. The USDEGP is classified under the emerging currency pairs, and the volatility in these pairs is quite high. In this pair, the US Dollar is the base currency and the EGP the quote currency.

Understanding USD/EGP

The price of USDEGP specifies the value of EGP equivalent to one USD. It is quoted as 1 USD per X EGP. So, if the market price of this pair is 15.673, then 15.673 units of EGP are required to purchase one US Dollar.

Spread

The difference between the bid and ask price is referred to as the spread. This value varies from broker to broker as well as how they execute the trade. The approximate spread on ECN and STP accounts is shown below.

ECN: 20 pips | STP: 21 pips

Fees

The fee is a commission that is to be paid to the broker for each trade you execute on an ECN account. On STP accounts, the fee is nil.

Slippage 

The price you receive from the broker is usually different from the price when you executed. And the difference between these two prices is referred to as the slippage. The factors affecting slippage include,

  • Market’s volatility
  • Broker’s execution speed

Trading Range in USD/EGP

The trading range is a tabular representation of the pip movement in a currency pair for different timeframes. With it, one can assess their risk on the trade for each given timeframe.

Procedure to assess Pip Ranges

  1. Add the ATR indicator to your chart
  2. Set the period to 1
  3. Add a 200-period SMA to this indicator
  4. Shrink the chart so you can assess a large period
  5. Select your desired timeframe
  6. Measure the floor level and set this value as the min
  7. Measure the level of the 200-period SMA and set this as the average
  8. Measure the peak levels and set this as Max.

USD/EGP Cost as a Percent of the Trading Range

As the name pretty much suggests, this is a trading range table that represents cost variations (in terms of percentage) for different timeframes and volatilities. These values are useful in determining the ideal times of the day to trade this pair.

ECN Model Account

Spread = 20 | Slippage = 3 |Trading fee = 3

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 3 + 20 + 3 = 26

STP Model Account

Spread = 21 | Slippage = 3 | Trading fee = 0

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 3 + 21 + 0 = 24

The Ideal way to trade the USD/EGP

In emerging currencies, the volatility is high, and the traded volume is low. So is it not ideal to enter the market any time during the day. So, let’s interpret the above tables and find the best times of the day to trade this currency pair.

The magnitude of the percentage is directly proportional to the cost of the trade. And since the percentage is higher in the min column, we can conclude that as the volatility increases, the cost reduces. However, our main aim is not only to reduce costs but to have good volatility and trading volume as well. Hence, to ensure both, it is ideal to trade when the volatility is at/above the average values in the volatility table.

Moreover, one can bring their costs slightly lower by trading using limit orders instead of market orders. This will cut off the slippage on the total cost of the trade. An example of the same is given below.

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Forex Assets

Understanding The USD/PLN Exotic Currency Pair

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

USD/PLN is the abbreviation for the US dollar against the Polish Zloty. It is an emerging currency pair in the forex market. The volatility in this pair is high, and the trading volume is less compared to major and cross currencies. In this pair, USD is the base currency, and PLN is the quote currency.

Understanding USD/PLN

The value of this pair determines the value of PLN that is equal to one US dollar. It is quoted as 1 USD per X PLN. For example, if the value of this pair is 3.8146, then around 4 PLN is required to buy one USD.

Spread

In forex, one of the most used terms is the spread. Spread is the difference between the bid price and the ask price of the market. This value is decided by the broker and varies from the type of account model.

ECN: 18 pips | STP: 21 pips

Fees

There is some fee on every trade you execute. And this, too, varies from type of account model. For instance, there is no fee on the STP account and a few pips on ECN accounts.

Slippage

Slippage occurs only on market orders. By definition, it is the difference between the trader’s required price for execution and the actual price the order was executed. This value depends on the broker’s execution speed and the market’s volatility.

Trading Range in USD/PLN

Assessing the profit that you can make and the loss that you can incur is a vital risk management tool. And below is a table that represents the minimum, average, and maximum volatility in different timeframes, which will help determine profit/loss values.

Procedure to assess Pip Ranges

  1. Add the ATR indicator to your chart
  2. Set the period to 1
  3. Add a 200-period SMA to this indicator
  4. Shrink the chart so you can determine a large period
  5. Select your desired timeframe
  6. Measure the floor level and set this value as the min
  7. Measure the level of the 200-period SMA and set this as the average
  8. Measure the peak levels and set this as Max.

USD/PLN Cost as a Percent of the Trading Range

An excellent application to the above table is the cost as a Percent of the Trading Range. The below tables illustrate how the cost varies based on the volatility of the market. And these values will help us an idea on the best times of the day to enter into this currency pair.

ECN Model Account

Spread = 18 | Slippage = 3 |Trading fee = 3

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 3 + 18 + 3 = 24

STP Model Account

Spread = 21 | Slippage = 3 | Trading fee = 0

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 3 + 21 + 0 = 24

The Ideal way to trade the USD/PLN

Before getting right into it, let us comprehend what the tables actually mean. The higher the value of the percentage, the higher is the cost of the trade and vice versa. From the table, we can clearly ascertain that the percentages are high in the first (min) column, indicating that the costs are high when the market volatility is low.

Now, talking the ideal time to trade this currency pair, you may trade this pair during those times when the volatility is above the average values. In doing so, you will be assured with sufficient volatility and low costs as well.

Furthermore, if you wish to reduce your costs much more, you may place orders using the limit/stop instead of the market. This will completely nullify the slippage on the trade and will, in turn, bring down the total costs significantly. As an example, the above table, when the slippage is made, is nil is illustrated below.

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Forex Assets

Everything About The USD/MXN Forex Currency Pair

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

USDMXN is the abbreviation for the US Dollar against the Mexican Peso. It is classified as an exotic currency pair that usually has high volatility and low trading volume. Here, the US Dollar (on the left) is the base currency, and the MXN (on the right) is the quote currency.

Understanding USD/MXN

The market price of USDMXN represents the value of MXN that are required to purchase to one US Dollar. It is quoted as 1 USD per X MXN. So, if the market price of this pair is 18.7615, then this amount of MXN is required to buy one USD.

Spread

The difference between the bid and the ask price is referred to as the spread. Its value varies from the type of execution model of the broker.

ECN: 16 pips | STP: 17 pips

Fees

For every position a client takes from the broker, he must pay some fee on each. Note that there is no fee on STP accounts. However, there are few pips of fees on ECN accounts.

Slippage

The difference between the price requested by the client and the price that was given by the broker is referred to as the slippage. Its value depends on the volatility of the market and the broker’s execution.

Trading Range in USD/MXN

Assessing the amount of money you will win and lose beforehand, in a particular timeframe is critical in trading. Below is a volatility table through which one can determine the minimum, average, and maximum profit/loss they can encounter in a specified timeframe.

Procedure to assess Pip Ranges

  1. Add the ATR indicator to your chart
  2. Set the period to 1
  3. Add a 200-period SMA to this indicator
  4. Shrink the chart so you can assess a large time period
  5. Select your desired timeframe
  6. Measure the floor level and set this value as the min
  7. Measure the level of the 200-period SMA and set this as the average
  8. Measure the peak levels and set this as Max.

USD/MXN Cost as a Percent of the Trading Range

By applying the total cost to the above table, we can even determine the cost variation in a trade. The ratio between the two expressed in percentage will help us determine the ideal times of the day to trade the currency pair.

ECN Model Account

Spread = 16 | Slippage = 3 |Trading fee = 3

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 3 + 16 + 3 = 22

STP Model Account

Spread = 17 | Slippage = 3 | Trading fee = 0

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 3 + 17 + 0 = 20

The Ideal way to trade the USD/MXN

Comprehending the above tables is simple. The percentage values are directly proportional to the total cost of the trade. It is seen that the percentages are comparatively high on the min column and vice versa. Now, coming to the ideal time to enter the market, it would be when the volatility of USDMXN is somewhere around the average pip movement. Trading in such moments will ensure low costs as well as lower liquidity.

Furthermore, you reduce costs by placing orders using limit/pending orders instead of market orders. This will significantly bring down the total costs as the slippage will be zero at this point in time. I hope this article will help you trade this pair in a much efficient way. Cheers!

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Forex Assets

USD/DKK – Analyzing the Exotic Forex Pair

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

USD/DKK is the abbreviation for the US Dollar against the Danish Krone. This pair is considered as an exotic currency pair that typically presents high volatility and low trading volume. The US Dollar is the base currency, and the Danish Krone is the quote currency.

Understanding USD/DKK

The value of USD/DKK represents the value of DKK that is equivalent to one US Dollar. It is quoted as 1 USD per X DKK. So, if the current value of this pair is 6.9868, then these many Danish Krones are required to purchase one US Dollar.

Spread

Spread is the difference between the bid and the ask price of a currency pair. It is the primary way through which brokers generate revenue. It varies from broker to broker and also the model of execution.

ECN: 14 pips | STP: 15 pips

Fees

The fee is simply the commission that you pay on each trade you take.

Fee on ECN – 3-6

Fee on STP – 0

Slippage

Slippage is the difference between the price which was intended by the client and the price he got from the broker. This difference changes with the market’s volatility and the broker’s execution speed. Slippage on exotic pairs is typically high.

Trading Range in USD/DKK

As it is pretty evident from the table, the trading range is an illustration of the pip movement in a currency pair in different timeframes. These values help us determine the minimum, average, and maximum profit or loss that can be incurred in a trade during a specified time frame. Another application for this table is discussed in the next topic.

Procedure to assess Pip Ranges

  1. Add the ATR indicator to your chart
  2. Set the period to 1
  3. Add a 200-period SMA to this indicator
  4. Shrink the chart so you can determine an extensive period
  5. Select your desired timeframe
  6. Measure the floor level and set this value as the min
  7. Measure the level of the 200-period SMA and set this as the average
  8. Measure the peak levels and set this as Max.

USD/DKK Cost as a Percent of the Trading Range

Cost as a percent of the trading range is an application to the above volatility table. The below two tables depict the total cost variation in different volatilities and timeframes for ECN and STP accounts.

Note: The percentages are obtained by finding the ratio between the total cost and the pip movement values in the above table.

ECN Model Account

Spread = 14 | Slippage = 3 |Trading fee = 3

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 3 + 14 + 3 = 20

STP Model Account

Spread = 15 | Slippage = 3 | Trading fee = 0

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 3 + 15 + 0 = 18

The Ideal way to trade the USD/DKK

What do the percentage values mean? Comprehending the above tables is simple. The higher the magnitude of the percentage, the higher are the costs for that particular volatility and timeframe. Similarly, lower percentage values mean that the costs are low.

Trading during high volatilities or when the cost is high is not ideal. So, to ensure an equilibrium between the two, it is best to enter the market during those times when the volatility is around the mid values illustrated in the volatility table.

Apart from this, one can reduce their total costs significantly by placing orders using limit/pending orders instead of market orders. This will altogether remove the slippage factor on the total cost and bring down its value by a high number.

As already mentioned, exotic currency pairs are highly volatile and have low trading volume. This results in higher costs on the trade. Hence, if you really want to trade this pair, it is recommended to follow the above-mentioned mentioned techniques to reduce costs by a considerable amount. Cheers!

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Forex Assets

Understanding The USD/HKD Exotic Forex Pair

introduction

introduction

introduction

USDHKD is the abbreviation for the US dollar and the Hong Kong dollar. The USDHKD is an exotic currency pair. Exotics are pairs that are thinly traded in the foreign exchange markets and are not widely used in the global markets. One can expect high volatility and low volumes on this pair. Here, USD is referred to as base currency and HKD as the quote currency.

Understanding USD/HKD

The value of USDHKD represents the value of the Hong Kong dollar that is equivalent to one US dollar. It is quoted as 1USD per X HKD. For example, if the market price of USDHKD is 7.7684, then these many units of HKD are required to purchase one USD.

Spread

Spread is the difference between the bid price and the ask price of a currency pair. This value is set by the brokers, and it varies from different brokers. The type of execution model brings a variation in the spreads.

ECN: 5 | STP: 9

Fees

When you execute any trade through your brokers, there is a fee that has to be paid. The fee differs from brokers to brokers, as well as their execution type. Typically, there is no fee on STP accounts.

Slippage

Slippage is the difference between the trader’s intended price to execute a trade and the price he actually received from the broker. There is always this difference due to the volatility of the market and the broker’s execution speed. As a matter of fact, slippage is pretty high on exotic pairs.

Trading Range in USD/HKD

The trading range is the depiction of the minimum, average, and maximum pip movement of a currency pair. And these values help in assessing one’s risk on a trade. By finding the product of the volatility value with the pip value, you can determine the profit or loss that can be incurred in a specified timeframe.

Procedure to assess Pip Ranges

  1. Add the ATR indicator to your chart
  2. Set the period to 1
  3. Add a 200-period SMA to this indicator
  4. Shrink the chart so you can determine a large time period
  5. Select your desired timeframe
  6. Measure the floor level and set this value as the min
  7. Measure the level of the 200-period SMA and set this as the average
  8. Measure the peak levels and set this as Max.

USD/HKD Cost as a Percent of the Trading Range

This calculation is an extremely helpful tool to analyze the cost variations in a trade. This table is basically a representation of the total cost variations in different timeframes and volatilities of the market. The costs are represented as a percentage of the range, and the magnitude of it depicts the cost of the trade.

ECN Model Account

Spread = 5 | Slippage = 5 |Trading fee = 1

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 5 + 5 + 1 = 11

STP Model Account

Spread = 9 | Slippage = 5 | Trading fee = 0

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 9 + 5 + 0 = 14

The Ideal way to trade the USD/HKD

Exotic pairs are expensive to trade when compared to major and minor currency pairs. However, it does not mean that one must completely avoid it. There are a few ways by which one can minimize the costs on the trade and take positions on it.

The higher the magnitude of the percentage, the higher is the cost of the trade. It is evident that the values are significant on the min column and comparatively small on the max column. Hence, costs are high for low volatilities markets and vice versa.

When it comes to picking the right time to enter the market, it is ideal to take positions when the volatility of the market is around the average values. From this, one can be guaranteed with affordable costs and decent volatility.

Slippage has a significant weight on the total cost of a trade. However, slippage can be wiped out. Trading using limit orders instead of market orders will take away the slippage on the trade. The next table displays the costs using limit orders.

Spread = 5 | Slippage = 0 |Trading fee = 1

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 5 + 0 + 1 = 6

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Forex Assets

What Should You Know About USD/CAD Forex Pair?

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

USDCAD is the short form for the US dollar against the Canadian dollar. USDCAD, just like the EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, etc. is a major currency pair. In this pair, the US dollar is the base currency, and the Canadian dollar is the quote currency. Trading this currency pair is known as trading the “loonie” because it is the name for the Canadian one-dollar coin.

Understanding USD/CAD

The exchange price of USD/CAD is basically the value of 1 USD in terms of CAD. It is quoted as 1 US dollar per X* Canadian dollars. For example, if the value of USDCAD is 1.3300, it means that it takes 1.3300 Canadian dollars to buy one US dollar.

*X is the current market price of USDCAD

USD/CAD Specification

Spread

The difference between the bid price and the ask price mentioned by the broker is the spread. Typically, this differs from the type of account.

Spread on ECN: 0.7

Spread on STP: 1.2

Fees

There is a fee (commission) on every trade a trader takes. This again depends on the type of account registered by the user. There is no fee on the STP account, but a few pips on an ECN account.

Note: We are considering fees in terms of pips, not currency units.

Slippage

Sometimes a trader is executed at a different price from what he had intended. This variation in price is known as slippage. Slippage takes place when orders are executed as a market type, and it depends on the volatility of the currency pair and also the execution speed of the broker.

Trading Range in USD/CAD

Trading analysis is not all about predicting when the prices will rise and fall. Sometimes, even though a trader knows the prices are going to rise/fall, it might not be ideal to jump on the trade without the knowledge of volatility of the market. Volatility range plays a major role in managing the total cost of a trade. Hence, it is vital to know the minimum, average, and maximum pip movement in each timeframe to assess the trading costs.

Below is a table that depicts the minimum, average, and maximum volatility (pip movement) on different timeframes.

USD/CAD PIP RANGES

Procedure to assess Pip Ranges

  1. Add the ATR indicator to your chart
  2. Set the period to 1
  3. Add a 200-period SMA to this indicator
  4. Shrink the chart so you can assess a large time period
  5. Select your desired timeframe
  6. Measure the floor level and set this value as the min
  7. Measure the level of the 200-period SMA and set this as the average
  8. Measure the peak levels and set this as Max.

USD/CAD Cost as a Percent of the Trading Range

With the min, average, and max pip movement, the cost range is calculated in terms of percentage. This percentage has no unit and determines if the width of the cost. That is, if the percentage is high, the cost is high for the trade, and if the percentage is low, the cost is low too.

Below are two tables representing the range of cost for an ECN account and an STP account.

ECN Model Account

Spread = 0.7 | Slippage = 2 | Trading fee = 1

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 2 + 0.7 + 1 = 3.7

STP Model Account

Spread = 1.2 | Slippage = 2 | Trading fee = 0

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 2 + 1.2 + 0 = 3.2

The Ideal way to trade the USD/CAD

As mentioned earlier, the higher the percentage, the higher is the cost for a trade. Applying this idea to the above tables, it can clearly be inferred that the percentages are high on the minimum column. This means that the costs are high when the volatility of the currency pair is very feeble.

Similarly, the costs are considerably low when the volatility is quite high. However, this does not mean that trading during high volatility is the ideal way. This is because the volatility is quite risky to trade volatile markets. Therefore, one must trade during those times of day when the market volatility is around the mentioned average. The costs are decent enough, and the risk is maintained just fine.

Another point of consideration is that costs are reduced significantly when the slippage is made nil. This can be made possible by entering and exiting a trade by placing a pending/limit order instead of executing them by market.

Below is the same cost percentage table after making the slippage value to 0.

Now it is evident from the above table that slippage eats up a significant amount of cost on each trade. Hence, limit orders are the way to go.

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Forex Market Analysis

The US Dollar in Focus Today

 

The ADP Non-farm Employment change came in at 178K (previous 163K and expected 190K) which did nothing to dampen the overall slide of the Dollar today, while lifting EURUSD to a daily high of 1.1640 and Cable to 1.3306.

Lower than expected GDP (QoQ) (Q1) was a slight miss on expectations and came in at 2.2% (2.3% expected). Wholesale inventories came in at 0.0% (0.4% expected) and Goods trade balance came in at $-68.1B ($-71.20B) expected.

Personal Consumption Expenditure came in at 2.6% (2.7% expected) and Core Personal Consumption Expenditure came in at 2.3% (2.5% expected)

Initial market reactions caused a softer EUR:USD and Cable coming off its highs and looking to test 1.3280. But after an otherwise muted response the major pairs seem relatively unfazed.

The word on Wall Street is that China is looking for a ‘line-up’ of other countries to stand up to the USA regarding planned trade tariffs. It should be an interesting afternoon in equities!

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Forex Market Analysis

Are The Global Indices Bouncing Back?

Global Indices

In the last week, we have seen some bullish momentum come into the US Equity indices. We have experienced a bullish week and for now, this appears likely to extend into next week. What is interesting to note from a technical perspective is that we have now seen over the last week is a major structural break to the upside, albeit at different times with the Nasdaq leading the way, followed by the SP500 and then the DJ30. Despite all of the concerns about the global equity space, we are very close to all-time highs once more, these are definitely markets to watch over the coming weeks. Elsewhere in the global equity space, the FTSE has been the star performer and is currently trading very close to its all-time high around the 7790 level as we observe a fairly straight linear move to the upside from the 6852 lows back in March.

EURUSD

This week has seen USD bulls give back some of the territory they conquered over the past few weeks. At this stage, it looks like the move lower in the USD is a correction and will likely provide better levels to consider longs from in the near term. When observing this pullback, we can identify two significant levels of key resistance in EURUSD, firstly, around the 1.2072 and then the more important level of 1.2155, if the price gets that far. It is also worth noting that the 1.2155 level marked the significant breakout point of consolidation a few weeks back.

USDJPY

In contrast, the USDJPY has not really behaved like many other of the major dollar pairs, meaning both the dollar and the yen are both weak.  Looking at the chart below, we can see the consolidation between 108.61 and 110.04. So, the next step for this market is to be patient and wait for the breakout of either the upside level of 110.04, which is the higher probability trade or a structural failure back below the 108.61, either way, it could prove a decent trading opportunity.  However, it would take a move above 110.04 to confirm a resumption of the uptrend in this market.

GBPUSD

Cable is also looking vulnerable and the recent consolidation has taken on the appearance of a bear flag which, if correct, signals an extension lower. Sterling is also likely to remain vulnerable near-term following the BOE decision last week not to hike rates. Furthermore, the recent double top confirmation further highlights the potential for a continuation of the bearish technical outlook.

USDCHF

It might also be worth keeping an eye on the USDCHF market as well, which has this week traded back above parity at the 1.0000 level. It is also interesting to note that the EURCHF continues to hover below 1.2000, a level which the Swiss National Bank defended resolutely for so long until they removed the 1.2000 peg at 9am on the 15th Jan 2015. A break of this level to the upside any time soon would be significant and further highlight the bearish CHF outlook across the board.

GOLD

Gold has pulled away from its range base around $1303 as USD bullish pressure eases. Price actions suggest that the range based on $1303 is somewhat exposed, meaning a confirmed break below $1303 would represent a significant technical break for the yellow metal. If alternatively, gold continues to push higher next week, then we would need to consider the possibility of a move towards the top of the range around the $1357 level instead, however, a bit of patience right now is probably the wisest option.

Crude Oil

Crude oil has extended trend gains this week aided by Donald Trump’s decision to pull the US out of the Iran nuclear deal. For now, the ability for this market to hold prices above the $70 level provides an overall bullish technical signal.  We all know the current OPEC and Non-OPEC agreement till December 2018, is designed to restrict the supply of oil on a global basis in order to push the price of oil higher.  The Saudis, we believe are looking for prices to push to the $80-$85 level so don’t be surprised if we see these prices before the end of the year.

US 10 Year Note

To conclude, this weekly round-up, we should look at what is happening with the US 10-Y note, which has largely consolidated over the last couple of weeks. With yields in the US breaking above the 3% level, we are likely to see the price of the 10-year note push lower at least in the short term. The key bear trigger again is a move below the April low of 118.95, this is a market to watch over the coming weeks.

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Forex Market Analysis

The Trade War could benefit South American Producers

DAILY UPDATE

Released: 5th April 2018.

Hot Topics:

  • The trade war could benefit South American producers.
  • The unemployment rate of European Union falls to 8.5%.
  • Climatic factor impacts on March PMI Construction.
  • The Bounce of the Stock Markets Boosts the Yen’s Crosses.
  • Indices rebound driven by possible bilateral talks between the United States and China.
  • The Canadian Dollar is showing an example of the alternation rule of the Elliott Wave theory.
  • Crude Oil Production falls to its lowest level in over a year.

The Trade War Could Benefit South American Producers.

Uncertainty due to the trade war between the United States and China continues. This time China has reacted by incorporating a 25% tariff on soybeans of US origin. It should be noted that China is the primary consumer of soybeans in the world. As a result of this increase in tariffs on American soy, it is estimated that China could turn to South American producers to meet the demand for the grain. Despite this pessimism in the economic context, the Dollar Index in the hourly chart is developing an inverted Head and Shoulder pattern as a bullish continuity configuration. The next control zone is in the range of 90.20 and 90.36, in case if we do not overcome the resistance of 90.36, we could see a potential retracement to the 89.15 area.

The Unemployment Rate of European Union Falls to 8.5%

The signs of recovery in the European economy continue. The unemployment rate of the European Union has fallen to 8.5% in February, down from 8.6% in January. According to the information provided by Eurostat, the labour market in the Eurozone has reached the lowest level since December 2008. This level of optimism has not been enough to push the Euro towards new highs. The single currency is within a range between 1.225 and 1.23, from where it could create a bottom around the levels 1.2213 and 1.224. A new bullish rally could start from here.

Climatic Factor Impacts on March PMI Construction.

The PMI of the Construction sector (MoM) plummeted sharply to 47 pts, compared to the 50.9 forecast, despite the weak data. It is the lowest level since July 2016, when it reached 45.9 pts in the context of the Brexit elections (June 23, 2016). The critical factor in the decrease in activity has been the climatic factor, remember that in March the worst snowfalls in recent years were recorded. Technically the pound is developing a pattern of Head-Shoulder, which could be contained in a more extensive setup of Head-Shoulders. This could lead to sterling up to 1.3922 in the first instance, and up to 1.3737 in the second instance. All this structure could correspond to a major degree lateral structure that takes us from the 1.373 area to reach new highs around 1.45.

The Bounce of the Stock Markets Boosts the Yen’s Crosses.

Yesterday, although tensions in the dispute of tariffs between the United States and China, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) disbursed 833 billion yen (about US $ 7.8 billion) in the purchase of Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). This level of expenditure is the highest level since September 2017, the month in which the BoJ spent 830 billion yen. This action earned the yen to start a turn in its trend; this can be seen both in the chart of the USD-JPY and EUR-JPY which have begun to show bullish patterns. For the USD-JPY pair, the closest key resistance level is 108; in the case of the EUR-JPY cross, the control level is 131.71, a level that if exceeded could lead to the price to exceed 133.5 with a maximum extension of 134.5 in the short term.

Indices Rebound Driven by Possible Bilateral Talks Between The United States and China.

Through his Twitter account, President Trump stressed that the United States is not in a trade war with China. The Trump administration indicated that it is willing to negotiate with China on the escalation of tensions between the two countries. The most significant problem as mentioned by the American President in his account on the social network is that the deficit in the American trade balance is $500 billion, which according to his words “When you’re already $500bn DOWN, you cannot lose.” With the fears of a commercial war between the Trump administration and the administration of Jinping, the indices began to recover confidence. They realised a V-turn pattern is taking the Dow Jones to close above the 24,000 pts in a day. It started lower in the global indexes. The level of resistance to control is between 24,800 pts and 24,982 pts, an area from where in case of breaking up, could take us to levels close to 26,000 pts. The key support levels are 24,034 and 23,330 pts, which coincide with the base of a bearish channel.

The Canadian Dollar is Showing an Example of the Alternation Rule of the Elliott Wave Theory.

The Loonie has made a false rut beginning a downward cycle. It is developing a long-term bullish channel as a long-term bearish formation and is reaching a zone of 1.31 and coinciding with the upper guideline of the channel. Once started, this bearish cycle has been developing five clear movements. In this case, we will highlight the corrective formations or consolidation. According to the Elliott Wave theory, the alternating rule states that after a simple corrective structure, a complex structure should be presented and vice versa. By looking at the time chart of the USD-CAD, we can see this application. The conclusion that this case leads us to is to suspect that a recession is approaching, and that could take the price to levels around the area of the complex corrective structure and then return to develop new minimums in the long term.

Crude Oil Production Falls to Its Lowest Level in Over a Year.

The production of crude oil from the countries belonging to OPEC has fallen to the lowest level in a year and a half. This is mainly due to the problems plagued by the policy of Venezuela, where production decreased by 100,000 barrels per day since February, reaching 1.51 million barrels per day according to the survey conducted by Bloomberg News. The overall level of the output of the 14 OPEC member countries fell by 170,000 barrels to 32.04 million barrels per day in March. OPEC has helped stop production as of January 2017 with the aim of boosting the price of oil, which has been currently consolidating above $60 a barrel. Structurally in the hourly chart, we observed a Head-Shoulder formation that did not reach the technical target bouncing upwards. As long as oil does not lose levels below $60.2, the dominant trend continues to be bullish.

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