Crypto Guides

What Should You Know About Instant Crypto Exchanges?


Whether we need to buy, sell, or trade crypto, exchanges are the most convenient way to do so. It provides us with several functions that make the work easy. But when we need the task to be done on an immediate basis, we can opt for instant crypto exchanges. With these options, we don’t have to go through the lengthy procedure of buying, selling, or trading crypto. Here are a few benefits that can be obtained from instant crypto exchanges over the traditional methods.

They Are Not-Custodial

In the traditional exchanges, our money will be held on the servers of the exchange. That means the exchange had our money’s custody for a while. This not only extends the transaction time but also put our money at risk. The year 2019 saw twelve crypto exchange hacks, which accounted for over $290 million of funds.

However, there are no such issues with the instant crypto exchanges. As soon as they receive the funds, these instant exchanges deposit the conversion in your wallet immediately. That means you don’t lose custody over your cryptocurrency, and there is no exchange theft associated with it.

They Are Quick

The custodial crypto exchanges require you weeks to get the account approved. By that time, you can’t buy, sell, or trade crypto. But you can do the work fast with the instant option. The name itself indicates that these are “instant” crypto exchanges. So you won’t have to waste much time in getting your currency exchanged. You will have to put only 5 to 60 minutes for each transaction to complete.

Price Aggregation

When you go for the traditional crypto exchanges, you will have to deal with an extensive interface. That is because the entire order book depth and price are shown to make the trade. However, it only includes orders from that particular exchange, and you will have to work accordingly. On the other hand, instant crypto exchanges aggregate multiple exchanges’ price. So you get access to deeper liquidity, and the risk of slippage lowers down.

Fixed/Floating Prices

While making a trade in the conventional exchange, you encounter a specific limit. The system executes a trade only when the prices are at or better than the specified limit. The feature was definitely beneficial, but the instant crypto exchanges have something better to offer. The two options available are:


When making a transaction, the floating rates get executed at the most excellent possible price. It can be either a little lower or higher than the quoted price.


This fixes a specific rate for making the trade. That means, when that price is reached, the system automatically executes the transaction.

Ease Of Use

Last but not least, instant crypto exchanges are effortless to use. If you have already used traditional exchanges, you must be aware of their verification and registration formalities that you need to go through. When it comes to instant crypto exchanges, there are no such issues. You will get registered quickly with an email, and sometimes you can trade without any account or registration.

Examples of Instant Crypto Exchanges

As of today, there are only a few credible and reliable Instant Crypto Exchanges that we can rely on. One of the pioneers in this space would be a well-known exchange called Changelly. With this instant crypto exchange, we get to buy or exchange more than 150 cryptocurrencies. Some of the other popular instant exchanges include CoinSwitch, ChangeNow, FixedFloat, etc. All of these are instant and reliable, so you can confidently make your crypto trades with them.

Bottom line

Though it is quite clear that there are several benefits of opting for instant crypto exchanges, you still need to think twice before using them. This is because of their less sophisticated wallets and heftier exchange fees. You can look up to them and make your mind about whether you want to try them or not.

Forex Daily Topic Forex Economic Indicators

What Moves the Forex Markets?

Analyzing the Forex Market

There are three ways to interpret the Forex markets: Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis, and Sentiment Analysis. But the markets move for just one reason: Supply and demand.
Supply and demand changes slowly or fast, depending on the current economic events, but that change is due to the Sentiment or beliefs of the major operators about what they think are imbalances of the market. That happens when institutional traders believe the current price is not a fair price, and it is due to change in the near or far future. The best strategies combine the tree methods to make the trading decisions, but a trader must always keep in mind the fundamental forces that move the Forex markets.

Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental Analysis deals with the economic and political events and situations that change supply and demand. Among the most important indicators are economic Growth Rates, Inflation, Interest Rates, Government Debt and Spending, Gross Domestic Product, and Unemployment. Fundamental Analysis combines all this information to determine the possible sentiment of the market participants and ultimately forecast the future performance of an asset.

Supply and Demand

Currencies’ prices change primarily driven by supply and demand. If the supply is larger than the demand, the price drops, and if the opposite happens, it goes up. We, as traders, cannot determine if the imbalance of the supply-demand forces is due to hedging, speculation, or monetary conversion. For example, the US dollar moved with strength from 1998 to 2001 when the Internet as the NASDAQ boom drove international investors to participate in the US financial markets in search of high returns. Investors had to buy dollars and sell their local currency, so the Dollar gained strength. At the end of 2001, the political climate changed after the 9/11 event, the stock market fell hard, and the FED started to cut interest rates. Therefore, stock investors moved their capital elsewhere, so they sold the Dollar, and its price dropped.

Capital Flows and Trade Flows

The flows of capital and trade are two major factors in the balance of payments. These two factors quantify the amount of demand for a currency. Common sense tells us that a balance of zero is needed for a currency to hold its value.
A negative number in the balance of payments will indicate that capital is leaving the domestic economy more rapidly than it is entering. Under these circumstances, the currency should move down. The opposite should happen if the balance of payments is positive.
An example of this is the Japanese Yen. Despite the fact of negative interest rates, the Japanese yen has managed to trade mostly moved by its high trade surplus; thus, this currency tends to increase in value. The Japanese government uses a negative interest rate policy and increases the money supply (by printing new money), counteract the inflows of currency coming from the export business to hold the currency’s value to a level not endangering its export business.

The capital flows show a measure of the net amount of currency bought and sold due to capital investments. A positive figure implies that the inflows originated from international investors entering the country exceded those bought by domestic investors abroad.

Physical Flows

Physical flows are originated by foreign investments, directly purchasing real estate, manufacturing facilities, and acquisitions of local firms. These operations require that foreign investors buy dollars and sell their local currency.
Physical flows data are essential, as they show the underlying changes in the physical investment activity. A change in the local laws encouraging foreign investments would boost Physical inflows. That happened in China when it relaxed the laws for foreign investment due to its entry into the World Trade organization in 2001.

Portfolio Inflows

Portfolio inflows measure the capital inflows in the equity and fixed-income markets.

Equity Markets

The Internet and computer technology enabled a greater easy to move fast and easily capitals from one market to another one in the search for profit maximization. A rally in the stock market can be an opportunity for any investor no matter where he lives. If the equity market rises, the money will flow in and drive the local currency up. If it moves down, investors would quit and move their money away.

Fig 1 – US Yields versus Stock Market Cycles


The attraction of the equity markets compared to fixed-income markets ( bonds and monetary investments) is growing since the early 90ies. For example, the foreign transactions of US government bods dropped from 10-1 to 2-1.
That can also be verified when we see that the Dow Jones has over 80 percent correlation with the US Dollar Index.

Fig 2 – US Dollar Index and the DOW-30 correlation  (Created using Tradingview)

Fixed Income Markets

Fixed income markets start being appealing in times of global uncertainty due to the perceived safe-haven nature of this type of investment. As a result, countries offering the best returns in fixed income products are more appealing and attract foreign money, which would need to be converted to the country’s money, boosting the demand for this particular currency.
A useful metric to analyze fixed-income flows is the short and long-term yields of the different government bonds. For example, comparing the 10-year US Treasury note yield against the yields on foreign bonds. The reason is that investors tend to move their money to countries offering the highest-yields. Thus, for instance, a rise in yields would signify a boost in the inflow of fixed-income capital, which would push the currency up.
Aside from the US Treasury notes, the Euribor futures or the futures on the Interbank Rate is a good gauge for the expected interest rate in the Eurozone.

Fig 3 – 10-year note yield curves on Industrialized Countries


Trade Flows

Trade flows are needed for import and export transactions. The Trade flows figure is a measure of the country’s trade balance. Countries that are net exporters will show a net surplus. Also, they will experience a rise in the value of their currencies as the result of the exchange transactions, when exporting companies trade the foreign currency for local money, as the local currency is bought more than sold.
Net importer countries will show a negative figure in its trad flow metric, and, since its currency is more often sold than bought will experience a push to the downside.

Economic Surprises

It seems logical that changes in any of the discussed flows would affect the involved currency pair. Traders, though, should focus on economic surprises. That is, data releases that are considerably different from the consensus forecasts. An unexpected figure would shatter the market and likely produce a long-term trend change. The trader should not trade the event itself, but use it to forecast future price trends and plan his short-term trading strategies with the long-term figure in mind.

Reference: Day Trading and Swing Trading the Currency Market, Kathy Lien


Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Oct 22 – Slow day for cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin SV skyrocketing

The cryptocurrency market has been pretty stagnant in the past 24 hours. After a green day (for the most part), cryptocurrencies have consolidated at their respective prices. The past 24 have been pretty stable when it comes to volume. Even though the majority of cryptocurrencies are in the green, there has not been any significant increase in the top-3 cryptocurrencies. However, Bitcoin SV skyrocketed and increased more than 20% in the past 24 hours. Bitcoin went down 0.56%, while Ethereum lost 0.13% of its value. XRP was the biggest gainer out of the top3, with a price rise of 2.25%. Bitcoin SV is the best performing large cryptocurrency in the past 24 hours (with the gain of over 15%) while the rest are pretty stable and have increased or decreased in price by a few percents at maximum.

Bitcoin’s dominance dropped a fraction of a percent when compared to yesterday’s value. It now sits at 66.4%, which represents a 0.02% decrease from the previous day.

Most cryptocurrencies ended up being in the green in the past 24 hours. This, of course, slightly increased the value of the cryptocurrency market as a whole. The industry now has a market capitalization of $222.86 billion, which represents a $0.5 billion increase from the previous day.

What happened in the past 24 hours

The global economy is looking pretty weak at the moment. Several central banks across the world have had to impose rate cuts. While the supply of fiat currencies has been growing in the past couple of years, Bitcoin’s block rewards are decreasing in an event called “halving.” Bitcoin’s new supply will drop even further after halving in 2020. Previous instances of halving resulted in a sharp price increase of both Bitcoin and the other cryptocurrencies.

Technical analysis


Yesterday’s spike got Bitcoin all the way up to $8,320. However, that price did not hold up against the falling pressure of buyers and the rising pressure of sellers. Bitcoin is trying to stabilize at either above or below the 38.2% Fib retracement line, which is at $8,200. The volume is average, and the RSI doesn’t show any signs of overbought or oversold trading. Bitcoin is now left in the hands of the bulls and the bears and their momentum.


Ethereum’s volume has been on the rise in the past 24 hours. The bulls seem to have taken over the wheel at the start, bringing ETH up to $179.5. However, as it could not break the $180 mark, Ethereum had to consolidate at a lower price. After bouncing from the 23.6% Fib retracement line, which stands at $173, Ethereum is consolidating between that line and the resistance line, which is sitting at $176.

Even though the overall volume seems to be higher when compared to the previous day, it is on the decline at the moment, which makes an upward-facing move quite unlikely.


XRP is on the rise in the past 24 hours. After consolidating in a range between $0.29 and $0.295, XRP had a parabolic move upwards. In a matter of minutes, its price rose from 0.292 to 0.303. However, the top of the movement got rejected quickly, and the price is not reversing downwards. XRP’s first point of support is the 23.6% Fib retracement line, which sits at $0.299. With bear volume increasing and RSI reaching the overbought territory, it is almost inevitable for XRP to consolidate below $0.3.

Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Oct 17 – Bears Taking Over, Cryptocurrencies in the Red

Cryptocurrency market’s attempt to stabilize its price after the new highs last week has failed, and bears have started taking over. Slowly but steadily, most cryptocurrencies lost their gains and then some. The past 24 hours came with an increase in volume as bear presence increased.  Almost every single cryptocurrency ended up in the red today. Bitcoin fell down 2.13%, while Ethereum lost 2.91% of its value. XRP held on a bit better and lost only 1.99%, which would put it at the spot of the cryptocurrency that lost the least in the past 24 hours out of the top10 (excluding Tether).


Bitcoin’s dominance has increased slightly when compared to the previous day. It now sits at 66.4%, which represents a 0.02% increase from yesterday.

Most cryptocurrencies ended up being in the red in the past 24 hours, which reflected on the market cap of the cryptocurrency industry as a whole. The industry now has a market capitalization of $217.73 billion.

What happened in the past 24 hours

As volume increased steadily for a couple of days now, people were expecting a move upwards. However, they were greeted with a surprise as the market started dropping in price. As suspected yesterday, we can now say with certainty that the volume is coming from the bears instead of bulls, at least in the past couple of days. Most cryptocurrencies tested their immediate support lines and broke them downwards, trying to reach a point of consolidation. Only a handful of cryptocurrencies managed to stay out of the red today, while most of the cryptocurrencies lost several percents of their value.

Technical analysis


Bitcoin’s short-term chart looks pretty grim at the moment. The bulls have seemingly left the building, and the bears are running the place. With volume increasing dramatically (and not just for one quick spike), Bitcoin seems to be dropping down slowly all throughout the day. The price seems to drop quickly and then consolidate at the next support line, which then gets rejected, and the price gets lower. That’s exactly what happened three times since the last green day Bitcoin has had. Bitcoin’s immediate support is currently at $7,912, and it is holding up well for now.


Bitcoin’s RSI has just left the oversold territory while the price remained on the same level. As for volume increases, it looks like that the big downward-facing price spikes require less and less volume, while volume during consolidation periods is increasing.


As stated in yesterday’s article, Ethereum started mirroring Bitcoin’s movements due to a lack of identity at the moment (mostly volume). Ethereum started falling in price slowly, dropping from $181 to $179, which is when the big drop happened. The spike dropped Ethereum from $179 all the way down to $172 in just over one hour. This price level became support as Ethereum rejected lower price points. The price is now in between the $172 support line and the $176.3 resistance line.

While its volume seems to be elevated, it does not seem enough to break from the major influence that Bitcoin has become.


Unlike Bitcoin and Ethereum, XRP did not have such a bad day. Even though it lost some value, it did not break any support lines. One the other hand, it did fail to break a resistance line as it tried to push past $0.2855 on one occasion. After the attempt of breaking the resistance failed, XRP dropped down to its support line, which is sitting at $0.282 and bounced from it to the middle of the “range.” If other cryptocurrencies keep dropping in value slightly every day, XRP might follow, but there is also a high probability of it just staying where it is price-wise as the bear volume avoided coming into it (at least for now).

XRP has not seen the same volume increase as with Bitcoin and Ethereum, which further proves that bear money has entered the market (it just avoided XRP for some reason).

Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Oct 15 – Gradual 24-Hour Volume Increase

The cryptocurrency market has been trying to recover and find a point of consolidation in the past 24 hours. Most of the cryptocurrencies ended up slightly in the green, while some even went up by quite a bit. While Bitcoin gained only 0.86%, Ethereum went up by 2.57% and XRP by 5.75%. Stellar was the biggest gainer of the day out of the top10 cryptocurrencies by market cap, gaining 7.08%.

Bitcoin has remained a dominant force in the industry as it always was, but it has dropped a few fractions of a percent today. Its dominance now sits at 66.25%.

As mentioned above, most cryptocurrencies kept their price levels or went up in the past 24 hours. This could translate to the overall market cap of the cryptocurrency market in a positive way. The industry now has a market capitalization of $227.11 billion.

What happened in the past 24 hours

After a red weekend, cryptocurrencies are trying to recover and settle at their respective price levels. Most of them had a slight increase in volume and a few attempts to break immediate resistances. Some made it through, and some didn’t. Even so, almost all of the top cryptocurrencies maintained their price levels or went above their most recent lows, which could only indicate a return of the bulls. This time, Bitcoin is not the main player, as many altcoins managed to outperform it.

Technical analysis


Once the low of $8,133 got rejected, Bitcoin tried to find a price to settle at. It was unsure whether that price will be above or below the 23.6% Fib retracement line, which is now at the price of just below $8,300. However, as volume gradually increased during the day, Bitcoin went above the line and contested the next resistance twice. The $8395 line was not so kind to Bitcoin as it could not pass through it either time. Both attempts were rejected, and Bitcoin is now settling in between the Fib retracement line 23.6%, which now acts as support and Fib retracement 38.2% line, which is the immediate resistance.

As Bitcoin is now in a limbo between the two lines, RSI shows us that it’s not oversold or overbought. One thing that is different this time is that, unlike over the weekend, the volume increase was not sudden and a one-time thing. Bitcoin’s volume in the past 24 hours has been elevated, rather than it being one big spike of volume and then back to normal.


Ethereum has, similar to Bitcoin, denied its low of $178 and tried to find a price to consolidate at. With new money seemingly coming in, Ethereum slowly moved above the 23.6% resistance line now turning support, but quickly lost its momentum and headed straight back down. However, the bulls rallied, creating a sudden spike in price, skyrocketing Ethereum past two resistance lines ($182 and $185.5). The bullish sentiment toned down at that point, making the upward-facing move unable to reach another milestone and pass $188. Ethereum kept its daily gains and is now consolidating at $187.


XRP has had a great day. Unlike Bitcoin, which managed to consolidate or Ethereum, which made a slight move upwards, XRP skyrocketed and breezed through its resistance lines. The move completely nullified the whole weekend of price losses and then some. Its price went up from $0.273 all the way up to $0.3, which is its significant resistance. XRP is currently making moves towards reaching above this price, and only time will tell if it will be broken soon or not. However, the volume seems to be gradually tapering off, which might not be a good sign for the XRP bulls.


Crypto Market Analysis

Litecoin at the Crossroads, Potential Play Ahead

  • Market Cap: $3,127,694,363
  • Max Supply: 84,000,000
  • Circulating Supply: 58,233,103
  • Daily Volume: $253,712,183

Litecoin is at the crossroads

Litecoin has hit the biggest support line so far, and kept above it. However, the downwards trend line is reaching the support line as well, and they will cross on the 24th of September. What will happen?


The most likely scenario

There is an extremely high probability of Litecoin breaking out before 24th of September, and the break has an extremely high likelihood of pushing upwards. Litecoin has been following BTC’s patterns for quite a while, but has still been a worse-performing asset than BTC itself. This might change soon. A proper long-short portfolio should have a Litecoin long position for the next 20 days. However, we do suggest a long-short portfolio with another asset being shorted for the same amount of equity in order to negate crypto market movements.

The less likely scenario

There is, of course, the other part of the story. Litecoin might break to the downside if the buyers do not rally up. Even if it’s highly unlikely, there is a chance for this to happen. If Bitcoin does go down in the next 20 days, Litecoin has high probability of following down its path. This is why having a long-short portfolio during the “bear market” is crucial. All Cryptocurrencies are highly correlated and we need to either only trade with the general trend of the market, or take long-short positions with extreme caution.

Final word

 Most financial advisors and gurus are losing money in Crypto these days simply due to them not being educated in properly managing risk. This is why Forex.Academy is trying to show people that portfolio and risk management is just as important as creating trade ideas. In the case of Litecoin these days, if the market goes up or stays the same, Litecoin will outperform it. If it goes down, Litecoin will outperform it to the downside as well. Either way, this play on LTC is a market play.


Forex Market Analysis

U.S. Core PPI (YoY) reaching its highest level since 2012

Hot Topics:

  • S. Core PPI (YoY) reaches the highest level since 2012.
  • Volatility moves towards Europe.
  • The pound rally continues due to the weakness of the dollar.
  • Jinping reduces risks of a Trade War.
  • Oil Brent reaches the highest level since 2014.

U.S. Core PPI (YoY) reaches its highest level since 2012.

Signs of strength in the United States economic growth continue showing up. The Underlying Producer Price Index (YoY) reached 2.7% growth in March, the highest level since June 2012. The Core PPI (MoM) index, on the other hand, went up 0.3% fulfilling analysts expectations who projected 0.2%. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 70% of the increase in final demand is attributed to a rise of 0.3% in the prices of final demand services, in the same way, transport and storage services for final demand increased by 0.6 %. The producers’ inflation rise is expected to have an impact on the Consumer Price Index, which will be published this Thursday.

Despite these positive macroeconomic data, the greenback index continues its strong depreciation, losing 2.83% for the year. Today the greenback is closing with a loss of -0.25%. We are paying attention to the zone between 89.15% and 61.8%  Fibonacci retracements, where the Index has found support.

Volatility moves towards Europe.

The risks of a Trade War between the United States and China are disappearing more and more, with the bilateral attempts to resolve the conflict in a friendly way. However, in Europe, the scenario that seemed full of geopolitical stability is changing. This Sunday 08th, Viktor Orban won the elections in Hungary for the fourth time in a row. With an utterly autocratic speech, the nationalist Prime Minister proposes an anti-immigrant policy and open attacks towards the European Union. Hungary refuses to comply with the agreed European migration policy, that is, to accept Syrian refugees quotas in the same way the United Kingdom did as one of its arguments for Brexit. It should be added that Mr. Orban is not alone in this political tendency; he has found allies in power in Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Italy. All of them are willing to reject the obligation to accept refugees and respect the right of free movement.

The euro has closed with gains for the third consecutive session with an advance of 0.29%. The pair shows a bullish move in the middle of a sideways formation. In the last trading session, the price has found resistance at 61.8% of Fibonacci retracement.

The pound rally continues due to the weakness of the dollar.

The pound continues for its third consecutive session in a bullish rally advancing 0.64% for the week and gaining 0.35% in the last trading session. All this occurs in a context of a weakness of the dollar, despite the excellent macroeconomic data of the United States. The level of support to be checked is 1.4145; the key resistance level is 1.42 as a psychological level.

Jinping reduces risks of a Trade War.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has promised to reduce import tariffs by alleviating the fear generated by the escalation of bilateral tensions between the United States and China. In a speech held at the Boao Forum, President Jinping promised to open further the Chinese economy and protect the intellectual property of foreign companies. These words filled the market with optimism, leading the indexes to move positively, the Dow Jones Index advanced 1.48%, while the yen reduced its attractiveness as a refuge, leading the USD-JPY to close with 0.41% of earnings.

The USD-JPY pair is forming an ascending diagonal pattern, which still has space to rally. Its closest resistance levels are 107.49 and 108, and the main support level to watch out is 106.64.


The Dow Jones index moves within a descending channel, its price looks to control a support level at 24,037.3 and is developing a possible upward diagonal formation whose closest resistance is at 24,630, a level that coincides with the Upper part of the bearish channel. Bullish positions are valued as long as price does not break the 23,749.3 level.



Oil Brent reaches the highest level since 2014.

The euphoria produced by the reduction of the economic tensions between the United States and China due to Jinping’s latest public speeches, not only has motivated a good mood on the indices but also on oils. The Brent Crude has reached its highest level since 2014: $ 71.03. Wes Texas Crude Oil, on the other hand, approached its two-week highs at $ 65.76. The oil rally and the Dollar weakness also benefited the USD-CAD pair (by inverse correlation), which closed at its lowest levels since February, and testing the psychological level 1.26,  approaching the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2583.


Our central view for this highly correlated group has been bullish; but we currently prefer to maintain a neutral position considering that once oils reach specific long-term levels on their structures, they should make a significant corrective movement that will allow us to join the trend. As long as Brent does not reach the area between $ 71.26 and $ 72.91, and Crude Oil does not come close to $ 69 and $ 70, we do not expect a significative correction to begin.

In the case of the USD-CAD pair, once it reaches the base of the channel,   we expect the beginning of a bullish move.


Forex Market Analysis

The Trade War could benefit South American Producers


Released: 5th April 2018.

Hot Topics:

  • The trade war could benefit South American producers.
  • The unemployment rate of European Union falls to 8.5%.
  • Climatic factor impacts on March PMI Construction.
  • The Bounce of the Stock Markets Boosts the Yen’s Crosses.
  • Indices rebound driven by possible bilateral talks between the United States and China.
  • The Canadian Dollar is showing an example of the alternation rule of the Elliott Wave theory.
  • Crude Oil Production falls to its lowest level in over a year.

The Trade War Could Benefit South American Producers.

Uncertainty due to the trade war between the United States and China continues. This time China has reacted by incorporating a 25% tariff on soybeans of US origin. It should be noted that China is the primary consumer of soybeans in the world. As a result of this increase in tariffs on American soy, it is estimated that China could turn to South American producers to meet the demand for the grain. Despite this pessimism in the economic context, the Dollar Index in the hourly chart is developing an inverted Head and Shoulder pattern as a bullish continuity configuration. The next control zone is in the range of 90.20 and 90.36, in case if we do not overcome the resistance of 90.36, we could see a potential retracement to the 89.15 area.

The Unemployment Rate of European Union Falls to 8.5%

The signs of recovery in the European economy continue. The unemployment rate of the European Union has fallen to 8.5% in February, down from 8.6% in January. According to the information provided by Eurostat, the labour market in the Eurozone has reached the lowest level since December 2008. This level of optimism has not been enough to push the Euro towards new highs. The single currency is within a range between 1.225 and 1.23, from where it could create a bottom around the levels 1.2213 and 1.224. A new bullish rally could start from here.

Climatic Factor Impacts on March PMI Construction.

The PMI of the Construction sector (MoM) plummeted sharply to 47 pts, compared to the 50.9 forecast, despite the weak data. It is the lowest level since July 2016, when it reached 45.9 pts in the context of the Brexit elections (June 23, 2016). The critical factor in the decrease in activity has been the climatic factor, remember that in March the worst snowfalls in recent years were recorded. Technically the pound is developing a pattern of Head-Shoulder, which could be contained in a more extensive setup of Head-Shoulders. This could lead to sterling up to 1.3922 in the first instance, and up to 1.3737 in the second instance. All this structure could correspond to a major degree lateral structure that takes us from the 1.373 area to reach new highs around 1.45.

The Bounce of the Stock Markets Boosts the Yen’s Crosses.

Yesterday, although tensions in the dispute of tariffs between the United States and China, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) disbursed 833 billion yen (about US $ 7.8 billion) in the purchase of Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). This level of expenditure is the highest level since September 2017, the month in which the BoJ spent 830 billion yen. This action earned the yen to start a turn in its trend; this can be seen both in the chart of the USD-JPY and EUR-JPY which have begun to show bullish patterns. For the USD-JPY pair, the closest key resistance level is 108; in the case of the EUR-JPY cross, the control level is 131.71, a level that if exceeded could lead to the price to exceed 133.5 with a maximum extension of 134.5 in the short term.

Indices Rebound Driven by Possible Bilateral Talks Between The United States and China.

Through his Twitter account, President Trump stressed that the United States is not in a trade war with China. The Trump administration indicated that it is willing to negotiate with China on the escalation of tensions between the two countries. The most significant problem as mentioned by the American President in his account on the social network is that the deficit in the American trade balance is $500 billion, which according to his words “When you’re already $500bn DOWN, you cannot lose.” With the fears of a commercial war between the Trump administration and the administration of Jinping, the indices began to recover confidence. They realised a V-turn pattern is taking the Dow Jones to close above the 24,000 pts in a day. It started lower in the global indexes. The level of resistance to control is between 24,800 pts and 24,982 pts, an area from where in case of breaking up, could take us to levels close to 26,000 pts. The key support levels are 24,034 and 23,330 pts, which coincide with the base of a bearish channel.

The Canadian Dollar is Showing an Example of the Alternation Rule of the Elliott Wave Theory.

The Loonie has made a false rut beginning a downward cycle. It is developing a long-term bullish channel as a long-term bearish formation and is reaching a zone of 1.31 and coinciding with the upper guideline of the channel. Once started, this bearish cycle has been developing five clear movements. In this case, we will highlight the corrective formations or consolidation. According to the Elliott Wave theory, the alternating rule states that after a simple corrective structure, a complex structure should be presented and vice versa. By looking at the time chart of the USD-CAD, we can see this application. The conclusion that this case leads us to is to suspect that a recession is approaching, and that could take the price to levels around the area of the complex corrective structure and then return to develop new minimums in the long term.

Crude Oil Production Falls to Its Lowest Level in Over a Year.

The production of crude oil from the countries belonging to OPEC has fallen to the lowest level in a year and a half. This is mainly due to the problems plagued by the policy of Venezuela, where production decreased by 100,000 barrels per day since February, reaching 1.51 million barrels per day according to the survey conducted by Bloomberg News. The overall level of the output of the 14 OPEC member countries fell by 170,000 barrels to 32.04 million barrels per day in March. OPEC has helped stop production as of January 2017 with the aim of boosting the price of oil, which has been currently consolidating above $60 a barrel. Structurally in the hourly chart, we observed a Head-Shoulder formation that did not reach the technical target bouncing upwards. As long as oil does not lose levels below $60.2, the dominant trend continues to be bullish.


Forex Market Analysis

Trump Announces He Will Impose Tariffs On Steel And Aluminium Imports

Hot Topics:

  • EURUSD – Trump announces he will impose tariffs on steel and aluminium imports.
  • AUDUSD – Australian mining companies on alert for Trump tariffs.

Main currencies daily performance.

EURUSD – Trump announces he will impose tariffs on steel and aluminium imports.

The US President Trump has announced that he will impose tariffs on steel and aluminium imports as a step to protect the US industries. The duties to apply are 25% on steel and 10% on aluminium.

China reacted immediately and warned that they would reduce the imports of US soybeans, and The European Union has said that is considering taking action too. The New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley said that “raising the trade barriers would increase the risk of a ‘trade war’, which could damage the economic growth prospects around the world.”

On the technical side, when arriving at the second support of the weekly pivot (Weekly S2 1.21550), the Euro made a perfect reverse movement climbing more than 120 pips. We expect a bullish move for the single currency that can take it up to the weekly pivot level 1.23304, where it could begin to lateralise.

AUDUSD – Australian mining companies on alert for Trump tariffs.

After President Trump’s announcement to apply tariffs to imported steel and aluminium, the biggest beneficiaries will be the US production companies, which accused China, Russia and South Korea of unfair competition. On the other hand, one of the largest Australian mining companies, Rio Tinto, which exports mainly aluminium to the United States and Canada, will be affected by this measure unless Canada can dispute an exemption to Washington.

Technically, the AUD-USD pair entered a zone of potential reversal that coincides with a long-term bullish trendline, which concurs with the second level of weekly support. A new low at the weekly S3 level (0.76286), could give more strength to a reversal pattern.



Forex Educational Library

International Trade: Types of agreements and movements against it.


Globalisation is a process that has been observed since the early 1980s and this has seen an improvement in the general welfare of people, but in some countries, it has seen an increase in inequality. Globalisation brought with it greater trade, the mobility of people and capital, although there are different types of trade agreements which imply different policies depending on their type. After several decades of international trade and its consequences, protectionist movements have grown in some areas of the world that have focused on the negative impact that trade has made on countries.

With globalisation as a worldwide event, a series of exchanges appeared not only in the economic field but also in the social and cultural realms, as discussed in the article Globalization. In the economic sphere, one way to trade similar to other countries are agreements to reduce taxes on imports or even eliminate these tariffs so that free competition is what determines which products consumers will prefer. The following graph shows how the world and its economies have globalised.

Graph 38. (18th December 2014). 38 maps that explain the global economy. Retrieved December 10, 2017, from

The first free trade agreement signed between the United Kingdom and France on 23 January 1860, was named the Cobden-Chevalier treaty, after the British and French chief promoters of the treaty. Free trade agreements consist of regional or bilateral trade agreements to expand the market of goods and services among participating countries. As stated in the previous paragraph, the agreements include the elimination or substantial reduction of tariffs for imports between participants so that they compete under market conditions without any other friction. These agreements are directed by the World Trade Organization or by a treaty between countries.

Free trade treaties do not necessarily lead to economic, social or political integration between the participants. But there are some deals such as the European Union or Mercosur (a South American trade bloc) which were created to promote trade. They include clauses on fiscal policy, the free mobility of people, and common political bodies. These latest clauses that go beyond a simple commercial agreement are not considered under free trade agreements, where only economic aspects prevail.

The main elements of a free trade agreement are:

  • Elimination of the barriers that affected trade between the areas that sign the treaty
  • Promotion of better conditions for fair competition
  • Improving investment opportunities for local and foreign people
  • Improving property rights on patents and innovations
  • Cooperation between countries that in some cases goes more to that of the economic part
  • Establish effective processes to stimulate national production and more loyal competition between countries.

Free trade agreements started to be signed between countries to put an end to economic protectionism because policies that try to protect local production reduce the well-being of people since they will have less quantity of goods to choose from, as well as having higher prices. The reason being that when local production does not face more efficient competition, they can establish higher prices.

Formally, free trade agreements propose an expansion of markets through the elimination of customs duties and any other policy that affects exports and imports in a market. It also seeks to eliminate the subsidies that some sectors have since in some cases there are productions that are competitive, but only because of state subsidies, which affects free competition due to that interference of the state in the market.

Agreements that go beyond the economic aspect focus on border controls of immigrants, the way in which there is parity between exchange rates and the establishment of a third party that mediates when there are commercial conflicts. Sometimes, the agreements are signed by more than two countries of the same region to try to compete together with other regions of the world and thus also protect their borders.

Classification of Commercial Treaties:

  • International cooperation: Several countries establish an agreement through which they pursue certain common objectives in terms of solidarity aid between themselves and without changing the legal aspects of their countries.
  • Partial scope agreement: Treaty whereby countries participating in the treaty decide to develop a clear reduction of trade restrictions to favour trade between the signing countries.
  • Free trade agreement: This treaty eliminates commercial barriers within the zone that delimit participating countries seeking better yields and efficiencies of their economy.
  • Customs Union: It has the characteristics of a free trade agreement added to the inclusion of tariffs for countries that are not part of the agreement to encourage the consumption of products from countries of the alliance.
  • Common market: It is one step ahead of the customs union that includes the free flow of people and capital.
  • Economic Union: It is the most comprehensive agreement in the category of commercial agreements at an international level since it means total harmonisation between the systems of the participating countries. The states modify their legal system and economic policies so that there is a unification of the member countries. A clear example of this type of agreement is the European Union.

The models and economic flows of recent years have exposed the benefits of international trade showing how these type of agreements improve general welfare due to the presence of a greater variety of products, more accessible prices and better conditions for the movement of people. But as it is usual, this type of economic change uncovers agents or people who feel that they lose with the implementation of these policies.

For example, local producers often feel that they are not as competitive to foreign producers, so they can go bankrupt or reduce their profit margins. Also, many times companies take advantage of this free circulation of capital to establish their businesses in countries where costs, such as taxation or labour, are lower.

It is because of this feeling in the face of trade that there are winners and losers that in recent years have emerged protectionist movements and even processes to get out of economic unions. The current president of the United States, Donald Trump, has made statements on the implementation of protectionist policies to encourage production in the United States and thus economic growth in the short term.

Another example of protectionist measures is the exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union, which is not only a political process, but will have economic consequences as well. The departure of the United Kingdom from the European Union has its origins in 1975 where political groups wanted to end this Union. In 2016, a referendum was held to determine the exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union, but it was not a uniform result since Scotland, Northern Ireland and Gibraltar voted for permanence. The important demographic weight of England and the large participation in this country were decisive for the result to be given. Noteworthy also, was the fact that the decisive factor that favoured the Brexit success was the vote of the elders. The polls show that only 19% of people between 19 and 24 years supported Brexit, while the vote among pensioners was 59% favourable to the EU departure.

The economic consequences that resulted from the referendum result were the immediate release of British bond yields to the minimum, the devaluation of the currency to levels not seen since 1985, as well as social problems such as racist attacks by the English population.

Although the referendum was not binding on the British government, it was clear that it would have been difficult for the parliament not to follow what the population demanded, so parliament began the process to remove the European Union’s agreements on the part of England.

People in favour of holding the referendum argued that the European Union had changed a lot in recent decades and had more control over the daily life of the British, there was no confidence in the Brussels bureaucracy, they wanted more control of immigration and greater security. In addition, they maintained that belonging to the European Union was an obstacle to economic development where the United Kingdom gave more than what it received from the economic union, added to the excessive European regulations that conditioned the way British companies could compete.

Since the accession of the United Kingdom to the European Economic Community in 1973, there were movements to limit interference on internal policies. For example, in 1985 the Schengen area, consisting of 26 countries, was created to abolish its internal borders, but the United Kingdom remained on the sidelines. It was also integrated in 1993 into the single market that promoted the free movement of goods and people as if the member states were one country, but did not adopt the Euro and continued to have its own currency.

The lands that were in favour of the permanence of the United Kingdom argued that the benefits of belonging to the European Union were the simple sale of goods and services to other countries. And that the free mobility of people allowed incoming flow of new capital which allowed better economic growth and it energised all aspects of the life of the British.

The single market is the great pillar of the European Union, and the central point of this is the free market without commercial tariffs. But not only is it an open market alliance, it also implies the free movement of goods, people, and capital. Therefore, the departure of the United Kingdom implies social, economic and even political consequences to countries within the European Union.

Although the conditions of Brexit have not been negotiated, some speculate that an economic crisis could be unleashed, a decrease in foreign investment and even local investment would be affected. A short-term recession could follow, and it could be profound, but that will not be grasped until after the negotiations conclude and an agreement is reached about the future relationship of the United Kingdom with the European Union. In the following graph, you can see the possible consequences that Brexit would have depending on how the negotiations end.

Graph 39. (2nd February 2016). Here’s how horrific the economic fallout from a Brexit would be. Retrieved 10th December 2017, from

But the consequences will not only concern the United Kingdom, but the European Union will also be affected because its attractiveness as a trading partner will no longer have the same image and may weaken its commercial power. Besides, some countries within the trade agreement could follow in the footsteps of Brexit which could threaten the European Union, its policies, and its common currency.

In conclusion, there are currently several menaces on protectionism and anti-global policies in the world that threaten economies and financial markets. There is a general frustration with the political elites which has led to voting for people and unexpected events such as Brexit and the election of Donald Trump in the United States which has led the political nonconformity to the economic sphere.

Even though a few decades ago all the theories and economic advances were centred on globalisation and greater commercialisation in the world, protectionist currents are now gaining strength.  Mainly they are due to slow growth in many economies, a social advance that in some cases has stalled and a political change due to the general discomfort of people concerning the elites. When a country begins seeking to protect itself economically and socially, it will trigger a reaction in other countries that recognise the same threats with globalisation and the free mobility of people, which generates a chain effect.  That is what we are currently witnessing.