Forex Elliott Wave Forex Market Analysis

USDJPY: Be Ready for this Flag Pattern Breakout

The USDJPY pair presents the breakout of a flag pattern corresponding to the third wave of Subminuette degree identified in green, triggered after the flag pattern breakout observed in Wednesday 26th session. Examine with us what’s next for the coming trading sessions.

Our Previous Analysis

Our previous Elliott wave analysis of the USDJPY pair commented on the complex corrective formation developed by USDJPY since the price topped at 111.715 in March 2020. Also, we recognized the internal structure as an incomplete triple-three pattern. 


As illustrated in the previous daily chart released in late December 2020, the USDJPY pair moved in an incomplete wave (c) of Minuette degree labeled in blue. Likewise, the lower degree sequence revealed the progress in an ending diagonal pattern, suggesting the corrective formation’s exhaustion, which belongs to wave B of Minor degree in green.

Likewise, the breakout of the trendline that connects the end of waves ii and iv of Subminuette degree labeled in green would confirm the end of wave B of Minor degree. In this context, once the USDJPY surpassed the upper-line of the ending diagonal pattern, the pair confirmed the end of wave B and the beginning of wave C of the same degree.

What’s Next?

The USDJPY surpassing the upper guideline of the ending diagonal pattern on January 07th confirmed the completion of wave B of Minor degree and the beginning of wave C of the same degree.

In this context, the first breakout the USDJPY formed in early January corresponds to wave i in green. Likewise, the consolidation sequence recognized as a flag pattern corresponds to wave ii. Both waves belong to wave C of Minor degree labeled in green.

The last breakout developed by the USDJPY activates wave iii that belongs to wave C in green. Its potential advance could strike the psychological barrier of level 106.

Summarizing, the mid-term Elliott wave view for the USDJPY pair suggests that the price action may advance in its wave iii of Subminuette degree, which belongs to the first segment of the internal structure of wave C of Minor degree identified in green. The upward wave iii in progress could exceed the psychological barrier of 106. It even could strike the supply zone between 106.561 and 107.050. Finally, the bullish scenario’s invalidation level is at the beginning of wave i in green, at 102.591.


By Eduardo Vargas

Eduardo Vargas is a technical analyst and independent trader based in Buenos Aires, Argentina. He is an Industrial Engineer and holds a Master in Finance degree. In 2008 began to trade Chilean stocks listed on IPSA. From 2013 started to trade CFDs on Forex, Commodities, Indices and ETFs markets. He analyses different markets combining the Elliott Wave analysis with Fibonacci tools. He provides a market mid-long-term vision.

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