Forex Elliott Wave Forex Market Analysis

AUDNZD: Profiting from its Intraday Triangle Pattern

The AUDNZD cross seems to start a movement in wave 3 of Minor degree labeled in green after completing its second corrective wave of the same degree, which found its bottom at 1.04181 on December 01st.

Technical Overview

The big picture of the AUDNZD cross and under the Elliott Wave perspective and illustrated in the following daily chart reveals the bullish sequence of Minor degree that began last March 09th, when the price pierced the parity level, dropping to 0.99906.


Once the price found fresh buyers, the Oceanic cross climbed in five internal movements of Minute degree, identified in black, until 1.10438, where the cross completed its first wave in green. After this completion, AUDNZD dropped in a complex corrective formation identified as a double-three pattern, which found support at 1.04181 on December 01st. From there, it bounced up to the current levels. 

On the other hand, the breakout of the short-term descending trendline that connects the end of wave ((x)), in black, with the end of wave (b), in blue, suggests the end of the second wave of Minor degree.

Short-term Technical Outlook

The intraday view unfolded in the next 2-hour chart shows the rally that remains in progress since December 01st when the cross found fresh buyers at 1.04181 suggesting further upsides in the following trading sessions.

The previous chart shows the wave (iii) movement of the Minuette degree labeled in blue, which currently looks consolidating its internal structure in a potential running triangle pattern. 

According to the Elliott Wave theory, practically all running triangle patterns tend to be confused with ending diagonals driving retail traders to open trades in the opposite direction to the current trend instead of considering the pattern as a continuation of the trend. Therefore under this scenario, our main bias remains on the bullish side. In this regard, this triangular pattern makes us think that the Oceanic cross might continue extending its movement until the potential target zone between 1.0758 and 1.0816, where the price could complete its third wave, in blue.

In summary, the AUDNZD cross completed its second wave of Minor degree subdivided in a descending three-wave sequence calling for a new upward movement in favor of the first rally, which should follow a five-wave sequence. In this context, the internal structure shows the progress in the third wave of an impulsive wave, which looks consolidating in a running triangle pattern. The potential target of the current rally is located between 1.0758 and 1.0816. On the other hand, the bullish scenario’s invalidation level is set at 1.04181, corresponding to the origin of the current upward sequence.


By Eduardo Vargas

Eduardo Vargas is a technical analyst and independent trader based in Buenos Aires, Argentina. He is an Industrial Engineer and holds a Master in Finance degree. In 2008 began to trade Chilean stocks listed on IPSA. From 2013 started to trade CFDs on Forex, Commodities, Indices and ETFs markets. He analyses different markets combining the Elliott Wave analysis with Fibonacci tools. He provides a market mid-long-term vision.

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