GBP/CHF Exogenous Analysis
- The UK and Switzerland Current Account Differential
A country’s current account shows the sum of its net exports, net secondary income, and net primary income. In this case, the current account differential is the difference between the UK’s current account balance and Switzerland.
In international trade, when a country has a current account surplus, it means the value of its exports is higher than imports. Thus, its domestic currency is in higher demand in the forex market. Therefore, if the current account differential is positive, it implies that the UK has a higher current account than Switzerland. We can then expect that the price of the GBP/CHF pair will increase. Conversely, a negative differential would mean that Switzerland has a higher current account than the UK. In this case, the price of the GBP/CHF pair is expected to drop.
Switzerland had a current account surplus of $10.11 billion in the third quarter of 2020, while the UK had a $20.97 billion deficit. The current account differential is -$31.08 billion. Hence a score of -7.
- The interest rate differential between the UK and Switzerland
Interest rate differential is the swiss interest rate subtracted from the interest rate in the UK. Forex carry traders use a pair’s interest rate differential to establish whether to buy or short the pair. For GBP/CHF, if the interest rate differential is positive, it means that the UK’s interest rate is higher than in Switzerland. This makes traders and investors go long on the pair; hence, a bullish trend.
Conversely, if the interest rate differential is negative, it means that Switzerland’s interest rate is higher than in the UK. Thus, forex traders will short the GBP/CHF pair; hence, a bearish trend.
The Swiss National Bank has maintained the interest rate at -0.75%, while the UK’s interest rate is 0.1%. Therefore, the GBP/CHF interest rate differential is 0.85%. It has a score of 3.
- The differential in GDP growth rate between the UK and Switzerland
GDP growth rate differential is the difference between the economic growth in the UK and Switzerland. A negative differential means that the UK’s economy is expanding faster than that of Switzerland. Consequently, the GBP/CHF pair will adopt a bullish trend. Conversely, if the GDP growth rate differential is negative, the swiss economy is growing faster than that of the UK. Hence, the GBP/CHF pair will adopt a bearish trend.
The UK economy has contracted by 5.8% in the first three quarters of 2020, while the swiss economy has contracted by 1.5%. That means the GDP growth rate differential is -4.3%. We assign a score of -3.
Conclusion
| Indicator | Score | Total | State | Comment |
| The UK and Switzerland Current Account Differential | -7 | 10 | A differential of – $31.08 | Switzerland has a $10.11 billion current account surplus, while the UK has a deficit of $20.97 billion |
| The interest rate differential between the UK and Switzerland | 3 | 10 | 0.85% | The differential is expected to remain at 0.85% all through 2021 |
| The differential in GDP growth rate between the UK and Switzerland | -3 | 10 | -4.30% | Switzerland’s economy contracted by 1.5% in the first three quarters of 2020 while the UK by 5.8% |
| TOTAL SCORE | -7 |
The exogenous analysis of the GBP/CHF pair has a cumulative score of -7. Thus, we can expect a short-term downtrend in the pair.
In technical analysis, GBP/CHF’s weekly price is seen bouncing off from the upper Bollinger band.
We hope you find this analysis informative. Let us know if you have any questions in the comments below. Cheers.
