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Forex Basic Strategies

Pairing The ‘Gravestone Doji’ Pattern With Significant Resistance Levels

Introduction

Gravestone Doji is a bearish reversal candlestick pattern that occurs at the top of an uptrend. This pattern helps the traders to visually see where the significant resistance level is located on the price chart. The most important aspect of the Gravestone Doji pattern is its long upper shadow. The candlestick’s open, close, and low are all the same in this pattern.

The psychology behind the long upper shadow is this – In an ongoing uptrend, when the price action hits the significant resistance line, buyers exit their positions, and the price action is smacked down by the sellers. In short, the appearance of this pattern represents the losing momentum of the buyers and essentially indicates a bearish reversal in the market.

Most of the traders place their trades as soon as this pattern appears on the price chart. But that’s definitely not the right approach. Instead, we must wait for the next candle to close for the confirmation and only then take the trades. The opposite of the Gravestone Doji is the Dragonfly Doji, which appears at the bottom of a downtrend or the major support area. The below image represents the Gravestone Doji Pattern.

Trading Strategies – Gravestone Doji Pattern   

The Gravestone Doji pattern indicates that the buying trend is ending, and the market is reversing to the selling side. However, this doesn’t hold true all the time. We will be finding this pattern quite often in all the types of market conditions, and if we start trading every time we find them, we will end up on the losing side. We always need to ask our self the reason why this pattern appears in certain conditions. Is it going to reverse the market or not?

Pairing the pattern with a significant resistance level

If you find this pattern at the bottom of the range, do not trade it. But if the price action prints this pattern at the top of a range, it can be considered a sign for us to go short. Similarly, find the trending markets and look for a major resistance level where the price could possibly react. So when the price action prints a Gravestone Doji at the major resistance level, it’s a strong sign for us to go short.

In the below USD/CHF Forex chart, we can see that the price action has printed the Gravestone Doji pattern at the significant resistance level. We should be going short as soon as the Doji candle closes.

In the below image, we can see that we took a sell entry when the market printed the Gravestone Doji pattern. We have placed the stop-loss just above the resistance level. It is safer to put the stop-loss above the pattern or at the resistance line because if the price goes above the pattern, the pattern gets invalidated. We know that the Gravestone pattern indicates a market reversal, and most of the time, these reversals travel quite far. That is the reason why we go for deeper Take Profits.

In the above chart, we can see that we had exited our full positions when strong buyers showed up. This indicates that the sellers are losing their momentum, and there is no logic to continue holding our positions.

Gravestone Doji + Stochastic Oscillator

The strategy that we shared above is for aggressive traders who like to take risks. However, if you are A type of trader who needs more confirmation to pull the trigger, we suggest you follow this strategy to trade this pattern. Most of the conservative traders do have a fear in their minds that one single candle does not have the potential to reverse the market. And it is completely okay to think like that. The truth is that sometimes even a single candle can move the market, and sometimes it doesn’t. Ultimately it is your money management system that makes all the difference.

But to filter out some poor signals and to get an additional confirmation, it is advisable to use the Stochastic oscillator to confirm the probability of our trading signal. Stochastic is a range-bound indicator that oscillates between the 0 & 100 levels. When the Stochastic goes above the 70 level, it means that the market is in an overbought condition, and we can expect a change in the trend. Likewise, when it goes below the 30 levels, it means that the market is oversold are we can expect a reversal anytime soon.

The Stochastic indicator also shows the bearish and bullish divergence, which helps the traders in trading the upcoming reversals. The divergence is when the market moves in one direction, but the indicator is signaling a different direction. Now we believe that you understand the basics of trading with the Stochastic indicator. Now let’s dive into the strategy.

The strategy here we are using is simple and straight forward. First of all, identify the Gravestone Doji pattern at a significant resistance level in an uptrend. Then, apply the Stochastic indicator to the price chart and check if the indicator is at the overbought area, indicating a downside reversal. If yes, go short and place the Stop-Loss just above the pattern.

The GBP/CAD chart below indicates the appearance of the Gravestone Doji pattern in an uptrend. When the price is approaching the upper resistance level, it got smacked down immediately, and the market ended up printing the pattern. The next six candles tried very hard to break the pattern & resistance line, but nothing worked, and the price ended up rolling down. We can also observe the Stochastic indicator was at the overbought area, which is a confirmation sign for us to go short.

We have entered for a sell when both the conditions are met, and placed the Stop-Loss just above the pattern. For the Take-Profit, we choose to go for deeper targets. When the selling trend started to struggle, the Stochastic indicator was at the oversold selling conditions. At that point, we have closed our full positions for obvious reasons.

Conclusion

The trades taken based on the Gravestone Doji pattern are pretty reliable. But do not make the mistake of identifying the pattern everywhere on the price chart. The psychology behind this pattern says that the bulls drove the price to a peak point, and the sellers are comfortable in reversing the market. For booking profits, you can expect an equal move to that of a previous trend. If you are an intraday trader, make sure to exit your positions at any significant level. Although this pattern appears on all the timeframes, the reliability is higher on higher timeframes to that of lower timeframes.

We hope you find this article informative. Try trading this pattern on a demo account and master it before applying the above-mentioned strategies on the live market. Cheers.

Categories
Candlestick patterns Forex Daily Topic

Candlestick Trading Patterns III – The Doji, The Most Critical Candle

The Doji

The Doji is a special candle, not only because of its striking appearance but also because it is one of the most vital signals in trading. This figure is so important that we need to understand it very well, as it is one of the safest trading signals when properly applied.

Fig 1 – A Doji on a chart

The Doji is characterized by having the open and close at the same level while standing out for its elongated upper and lower shadows. The figure of the Doji has a precise meaning. Buyers and sellers are in a state of mental indecision. The Doji is a powerful sign of trend change. The probability of a turn increases if in addition to the Doji:

  1. The next candles confirm the Doji’s signal
  2. The market is overextended
  3. The chart does not have many Doji.

The perfect Doji has the same open and close values. Nevertheless, if both levels are separated a few pips, and the candle can still be seen as a single line, it can be considered as Doji.

The Doji is a powerful signal to detect market tops. Steve Nison says that a dog is a sign of indecision by buyers, and an upward trend cannot be sustained by undecided traders. Nison also points out that, from his experience, the Doji loses some reversal potential during downtrends. That observation may apply to the stock market but is useless in pairs trading, as they are symmetric. In this case, a bullish trend of a pair is a bearish pare on the inverse pair and vice-versa. So a Doji will always have a similar meaning: The trend is compromised.  When trading commodities, indices, or stock ETFs the trader should take this into account, though.

In view that a Doji is such a powerful signal, it is better to act upon it. Better to attend a false signal than ignore a real one. Therefore, dojis are signals to close positions, since a Doji alone does not mean a price reversal.

The Northern Doji

The northern Doji is called a Doji that shows up during a rally. According to Mr. Nisson, ” The Japanese say that with a Doji after a tall white candle, or a Doji in an overbought environment, that the market is “tired.” Therefore, as said, a Doji does not mean immediate market reversal. It shows the trend is vulnerable.

 

FIg 2 – Down Jones Industrial Average showing northern Doji.

As we can see in the chart above, a Doji after a large candle, as in the first case, is followed by a gap and a drop to the base of a previous candle that surged after a gap.  The next Doji we see was an inside bar that just acted as a retracement and continuation. In the third case, we can see two Dojis, the second being a kind of hanging man with no head. In this case, we notice that the third bearish candle is the right confirmation of the trend reversal. It is not uncommon to observe tops depicting several small bodies, one of which is a Doji.

The Long-legged Doji

Fig 3 – Long-legged Doji in a SPY Daily chart.

We already know that a small body and long upper and lower shadows is called a high wave candle. If the figure doesn’t have a body is called “long-legged Doji,” and also called “rickshaw man.” As it happens with high-wave candles, it reflects great confusion and indecision.

Gravestone Doji

The gravestone Doji is the Doji that begins and ends at the low of the day. According to Stephen Bigalow, the Japanese name is set to represent “those who died in the battle.” Gravestone Dojis are a rarity.

Fig 4 – Long-legged Doji in the UK-100 Daily chart.

 

Dragonfly Doji

The Dragonfly Doji occurs when the price moves down since the open, and then it comes back and closes at the open. When it happens after an uptrend is a variant of a hanging man.

Fig 5 – Long-legged Doji in the DAX-30 Daily chart.

Conclusions

Dojis are important figures that warn trend reversals, especially if it happens at support or resistance levels.

Dojis need confirmation for trend reversals. When that happens, they create morning star and evening star formations. They also are followed by other small bodies, creating a flat top or bottom.

A safe precaution when encountering these figures while a trade is active is to close or reduce the position or, alternatively, tight the stops.

 


Sources:

Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques, Second Edition, Steve Nison

Stephen Bigalow, Profitable Candlestick Signals