Categories
Forex Risk Management

A Risk Management Model to Forecast the Margin Level

Margin call and Stop Out are some of the trading conditions that are infallibly indicated in the trading account conditions. Margin call is a warning sign, which the broker sends to the trader to deposit new funds into the account when losses on open transactions have approached a critical level. If the trader does not make a new deposit into his account and the losses continue to increase, the broker may affect a forced closure of the trader’s transactions.

Stop out is a notice of auto-close of transactions, which occurs when there is an insufficient margin level to keep account positions open. Brokers indicate in their agreements the percentage of this level, which may be different in each case.

Control of the margin level is one of the essential rules of risk management. In order to make this process very optimal, professional traders often create models, which allow estimating the level of the minimum margin required with specified leverage and volume of transactions. For more information on how to create models, how to calculate the margin level, and how to manage leverage, read this article.

Margin Call and Stop Out: Concepts and Calculation Rules

Terminology is the first thing the trader has to study before testing his strengths in Fórex. Without it, it is impossible both successful trade and collaboration with your broker. For some reason, in most cases, beginners believe that it is enough to download a strategy from the Internet, follow the recommendation point by point in the demo account to be able to start earning “a goose paste”.

Boxes such as “I have read and accept the terms” are automatically marked. It is that the merchants ignore the concept “offer”, where they have described all the conditions of the trade in mole type of accounts. In the end, this can lead to losses and disputes between the trader and the broker. Today, you will know two important concepts, Margin call and Stop out, whose parameters brokers always indicate in the commercial terms of each account.

In this article I will explain:

  • What are Margin call (margin call) and Stop out with practical examples (already defined above).
  • How to create a model to control the required minimum margin level and how to apply it in trading.
  • How to avoid stop-out (forced closure of open positions).
  • Stop Out and Margin Call: how not to run out of deposit at an inconvenient time.

This story happened on December 30, 2015, when miracles occur and one can ask for new magical desires. On that day Denís Grómov, a private merchant, also expected miracles. If we want to explain otherwise it would be impossible how in just 4 and a half hours and with the deposit of 5.6 million roubles (approximately € 64,400) he made more than 5,000 transactions of purchase and sale of currency for a total value of 42 billion roubles (about € 483,000). Later the 38-year-old merchant will say that he did not understand what happened. It’s just that the price of the dollar was growing and winning on the stock market was the best option if you looked at it from the point of view of spending on the margin. The result was sad: having lost all his deposit, the trader was left in debt to the broker and now owes him 9.5 billion roubles (about 110,000 euros).

The trader operated with a specific asset USDRUB_TOM, whose exchange rate today is set as the official tomorrow by the Central Bank of Russia (TOM – tomorrow). Grómov noted that compared to USDRUB_TOD (today) the US currency cost a little more. In 38 minutes he made more than 2,500 operations buying the US currency with the official rate for today (today) and selling it with the official rate for tomorrow (tomorrow). As it seemed to Gromov, the deposit was insufficient, so he applied the broker’s leverage. The general purchase/sale position of the asset did not exceed the margin requirement (the sum of the deposit retained by the broker as a guarantee for the opening of commercial operations), but at that time the volume of operations was already about 23.7 billion roubles (about € 2,724,000).

At that time he was called the manager of the broker, warned him of so-called “margin call” and proposed “reducing leverage (borrowed funds) by opening up opposite positions”. The trader’s mistake was simple: he did not take into account the price for arbitration (carrying out complementary transactions at the same time in the price difference between different markets on the same financial asset). Any leverage increases the volume of the transaction for which an interest charge (swap) is charged when a trading day is terminated for keeping the transaction open for more than one day. The operations with the asset USDRUB_TOD were executed on December 31 while the operations with the USDRUB_TOM, only on January 11. For all those days a swap was charged from the merchant’s account, which was larger than his deposit. This was what the broker manager told the unfortunate trader, who had only to close the open-to-loss transactions.

The merchant tried to solve the problem through the court, but without success. However, this story serves as a compelling example of how relevant it is to know the terms “margin call”, “stop out” and “swap”.

What are Margin and Margin Call Operations?

Margin operations are leveraged or leveraged operations offered by the broker. The margin allows opening positions for a total amount of ten, one hundred, and even one thousand times larger than that of the entire merchant deposit on condition that this amount is returned.

Each broker has its own leverage: 1:1 (the broker does not have it); 1:10 (the trader can open trades with a volume ten times larger than his deposit), 1:100, and even 1:2000. According to the recommendations of European regulators, before the permitted minimum limit of leverage was 1:200 and now, from 1:50 with the prospect of decline to 1:30, although this does not stop offshore licensed brokers. Therefore there is still leverage of 1:1000 and even 1:2000.

No one from the company representatives will tell you where the broker gets so-called leverage, on the pretext that they protect trade secrets.

There may be several options:

Aid to liquidity providers. Liquidity providers are investment banks whose liquidity depends on the deposit of investors through which the merchant’s deposit can be increased. Although there is one question: what do liquidity providers gain? Perhaps, brokers share the spread with them. But if, in fact, it’s so obvious, what is the reason why providers hide the leverage mechanism?

Technical multiplier. Regardless of the leverage offered the trade is done with merchant funds. The merchant, who buys a currency, will sooner or later sell it to regain balance. Broker leverage is only a digital instrument that is offset in opposite trades. The total volume of transactions with this type of digital instrument is much larger than the amount of the real currency in the broker’s accounts. But the system maintains the balance since after each purchase transaction there is a sale transaction and vice versa. If one merchant wins, the other loses.

Broker – “kitchen”. The manipulation of figures is carried out within the same company. The aim of the broker is to offer the trader the largest leveling so that he can lose his funds as quickly as possible.

In theory, they very often say that leveraged transactions are “a virtual loan with a deposit guarantee from the trader” or “bilateral transactions in which the trader who bought the asset with borrowed money is forced to sell it later”. Actually, it’s not entirely true. In any credit transaction, the lender also runs the risk of not getting the loan back. In margin transactions, the broker does not assume this risk.

Leverage Examples

No leverage – The trader has $1000, of which $600 wants to invest in oil. Oil volatility is small: – 0.1-0.3% per day. Suppose the trader performs intraday trade and in the oil market, a force majeure is produced and, as a result, instantly the oil price drops by 5%, that is, from $ 60 to $ 57 per barrel. If the merchant has opened a long position with his $ 600, the losses will be 600*0.05=$ 30. The deposit of $1000 is a small amount.

With leverage – Suppose the trader is confident that oil prices will rise and makes the decision to apply the 1:1000 leverage. The broker retains $600 of your deposit as collateral and $400 of the free margin (uncommitted balance) will serve as insurance. Thus, the trader opens a position worth 600*100 = $60,000. Force majeure spoils the investor’s plans and the loss of $30 becomes $3000. The merchant does not have this money in his account, so all his transactions will be closed by force before oil prices drop to the level of $57. It is easy to calculate that the guarantee of $ 600 with the indicated leverage is able to withstand just a 1% decrease in price ($ 0.60), the unencumbered balance ($ 400) – $ 0.40 more.

Margin Call (margin call) is a situation in which the broker informs the trader of the need to deposit new funds into the account in the event of a reduction of the sum below the established level. It is a kind of warning that the merchant’s deposit under the current conditions will soon end.

Stop Out is a forced closure of the trader’s open transactions at the current market price when the proportion of the deposit amount and the current loss to the amount of the guarantee for the positions opened at this time (margin level) is lower than the corridor has established. Open operations are closed one after the other until the free margin exceeds the established limit.

Example: The runner places the margin call in Fórex at the level of 20% and the stop out, at 10%. The merchant deposits $300 and applies the leverage of 1:100 by opening a deal worth $20,000. The amount of own funds needed to open this type of operation is 1/100 out of 20,000, or $200. The 20% of the guarantee amount is $40 and 10% is $20. Then when the trader loss is $260 a warning signal will be sent; when the trader’s account drops to $20, the forced closure of open trades will be generated.

Important! By setting limits on maximum leverage, European regulators are struggling not with brokers, but with the psychology of traders. The size of the leverage on Fórex carries no risk. Since there is no difference if the merchant with a deposit of $ 300 will open a position with leverage of 1:100 (the guarantee is $ 200) or with leverage of 1:200 (the guarantee of $ 100). It will continue to operate with available funds of $300. The volume of the position matters! If in this case, the volume is the target ($20,000), then in practice the emotions push operators to open large volume operations with greater leverage, which can lead to losses.

On the MT4 platform, the data on available funds and the margin level are indicated in the menu below in the “Trade” tab.

Specific Terms

Deposit is the amount of funds deposited into the trading account.

Balance is the amount of funds of the merchant at the present time, which remains in the account after the transactions have been executed. It is equal to the current adjusted profit or loss balance. If the amount of loss on unprofitable open transactions exceeds the profit on profitable transactions, in this column the figure will be less than the amount of loss. For example, the deposit is $100. One of the two trades was profitable and reported a gain of $32. The second operation has been closed to losses: $ 43. 100+32-43=89.

Margin (also known as “guarantee”) is a short-term loan service provided by the broker while his position is open. If the merchant buys the euro for a value of $10,000 and with leverage of 1:100, the loan will be $100.

Free margin is the capital not involved in the trade that the trader can use at his discretion. It is calculated as “balance”-“margin”.

Margin level serves as the indicator that reflects the account balance and is expressed as a percentage. For the trader, you will have something to look at. If its value falls below the stop out set by the broker, the closing of operations begins. The following formula will help us to do the calculation: “Funds”/”Margin” * 100%.

Example: The merchant deposits $100 into the account and is about to open a position with a volume of 0.01 lots at the price of 1.4500 with the leverage of 1:100. 1 lot is 100,000 units of a conditional currency, therefore, to buy 0.01 lots you need $14.5. (Total: $1,450). “Deposit”: $100. “Balance”: before the opening of operations is also $ 100. “Margin”: $ 14.5. “Free margin”: $ 85.5. “Margin level”: (100/14.5)*100 = 689%.

How to Calculate the Approximate Margin Level?

Any theory is necessary not only to be able to apply it in practice but also to be able to make forecasts with your help. The risk management system shall involve the development of several risk management models that allow current amendments to the table in a matter of minutes according to the market situation, and to see how the future outcome changes.

The management of the level of deposit allows to foresee in which quotes of the pair with the established volume of a lot can occur the stop out in Fórex. With averaged volatility data, an individual strategy can be created to increase (decrease) the volume of positions according to the rate of change in price and the level of leverage.

Peculiarities of Margin Operations in Forex

Unlike other types of loans, the merchant does not pay a percentage for the use of the loan on a regular basis. Any broker has swap, a commission that is charged for keeping a position open at the end of the day. The swap is charged against all open positions, including those in which the loan funds are involved, and deducted from the trader’s own funds, thus accelerating the reduction of the balance.

In most cases, margin operations are short-term. The trader takes advantage of leverage only when he is completely confident that the trend will not change. After making a profit from short-term positions, the trader again operates on their own funds only. In most cases the trader will not lose more than what he has deposited in his trading account, that is, the account balance will not be negative.

A clarification on the last point. The broker who lends his money for one day is not at risk, as in the event of a sudden price reversal he will have time to automatically close all the trader’s transactions. The situation is different if the transactions are transferred to the next day or in the case of serious force majeure.

Example: In mid-January 2015, the Swiss Central Bank allowed its national currency to fluctuate. In one night the franc shot up against the dollar and the euro at 30%.

That decision was unexpected to many. On the first day, due to the existence of high volatility trading conditions were amended: some suspended operations, some changed the margin requirement. Almost all brokers suffered losses on the illiquid market, and the British department of Alpari (UK) even went bankrupt, whose official version is that. “due to the volatility the company lacked liquidity. The losses of the clients exceeded the funds deposited, and the broker was forced to reward them on his own”. It’s a perfect example of how the exception confirms the rule.

How to Avoid Margin Call and Stop Out?

  1. Read the offer where the trading conditions of each trading account are indicated in detail.
  2. Comply with comprehensive risk management standards. The theory is that the sum of simultaneously opened positions should not exceed 10% (rarely 15%) of the deposit amount.
  3. Use the example of the table given in the article.
  4. Be cautious when using leverage. Set a target in the volume of positions and do not try to open the maximum position possible.
  5. Estimate the share of leverage and volatility. The higher the volatility, the lower the leverage in margin operations.
  6. Set the stops.

Conclusion

You should not be afraid of leverage, any instrument in the hands of professionals is capable of delivering benefits. Leverage is the individual choice of each, so in this article, I do not give a uniform recommendation applicable to all traders. Strict observation of risk management and control of unprofitable positions is one of the most effective methods of avoiding stop-out.

Categories
Forex Course

34. Refresher – Margin Trading & All The Topics Involved

Introduction

We have discussed all the terminologies and concepts related to Margin Trading in the previous articles. In this article, let’s get a quick recap of all these terms with the help of examples.

Let’s go through the steps involved in margin trading with the help of these terms. This exercise will help you in understanding how all of these terms are interrelated.

Let’s say Tom wants to margin trade GBP/USD currency pair. Below is the step-by-step procedure that he should follow.

Step 1: Balance

To start taking positions in his margin account, Tom must first deposit some amount. So, let’s say he has deposited $1,000 in his margin account. Once this amount gets deposited, Tom’s Balance will be $1,000.

Step 2: Required Margin

After depositing, if Tom wishes to go long on GBP/USD, he must know the Required Margin to open a position. Assuming the price of GBP/USD is 1.3150, and he wants to open 10,000 units, the Required Margin, if the Margin Requirement is 2%, is,

Required Margin = Notional Value x Margin Requirement

In terms of USD, Notional value = 10,000 pounds x $1.3150 = $13,150

Hence, the Required Margin will be,

Required Margin = $13,150 x 0.02 (2%) = $263

Step 3: Used Margin

As we know, when there is only one position open, the Used Margin will be equal to the Required Margin. So, here, the Used Margin of Tom’s margin account will be $263.

Step 4: Equity

Initially, let us say that Tom’s trade is in breakeven (no profit no loss). The Equity for this can be obtained using the below formula,

Equity = Balance + Floating P/L

= $1,000 + $0

Hence, Equity = $1,000

Step 5: Free Margin

From Equity and Used Margin, we can calculate the Free Margin as well. It is the simple difference between the two.

Free Margin = Equity – Used Margin

= $1,000 – $263

Thus, the Free Margin turns out to be $737.

So, this is the amount Tom has left to take new positions.

Step 6: Margin Level

Taking another step forward, we can calculate the Margin Level as,

Margin Level = (Equity / Used Margin) x 100%

= ($1,000 / $263) x 100% = 380%

Hence, the Margin Level is 380%. This is an important term for brokers as they use it to determine Tom’s eligibility to take new positions. Because both the Margin Call Level and Stop Out Level fixed by the brokers will be considering the Margin Level of Tom’s Margin Account.

The values that will be changed after the price changes are Notional value, Used Margin, Floating P/L, Equity, Free Margin & Margin Level.

Now, let’s say the price of the GBP/USD dropped to 1.1000. Let us calculate the changes in the values.

Notional value

Notional value = 10,000 pounds x $1.1000

Notional value = $11,000

Used Margin

Used Margin = Notional value x Margin Requirement

= $11,000 x 0.02 = $220.

Floating P/L

(Entry Price = 1.1800)

Assuming the pip value to be $1, the Floating P/L for a movement of 800 pips will be,

Floating (Unrealized) P/L = (Current price – Entry price) x pip value

= (1.1000 – 1.1800) x 10,000 x $1

= -0.08 x 10,000 x $1

From the above calculation, the Floating P/L will be = (– $800)

Equity

Similarly, Equity will change to

Equity = Balance + Floating P/L

= $1,000 + (-$800)

Hence, the Equity will be $200.

Free Margin

Free Margin = Equity – Used Margin

= $200 – $220 = (–$20)

Margin Level

Margin Level = (Equity / Used Margin) x 100%

= ($200 / $220) x 100%

Hence, we obtain the Margin Level to be 90%.

Now, if you recall the previous two lessons, at this point, Margin Call will be initiated by the broker. And a further fall could lead to Stop Out as well.

In case if the Margin Call Level is the same as the Stop Out Level, then Tom’s Used Margin will be released, and the Floating Loss will be realized. Also, Tom’s Balance will be updated accordingly. We hope it all makes sense now. Check your learning by taking the quiz below.

[wp_quiz id=”51961″]
Categories
Forex Course

32. Understanding Stop Out Level In Margin Trading

Introduction

In the last lesson, we saw how Margin Level was found to be useful for giving meaning to Margin Call Level. Similar to the previous lesson, in this lesson, we shall be discussing another term that involves the dependency of the Margin Level. This lesson will be dealing with the understanding of what Stop Out Level is and also the implications and consequences of it.

Stop Out Level, and Margin Call Level have almost got the same meaning. There is only a thin line difference between these two. Hence, understanding the Margin Call Level is critical to comprehend Stop Out Level.

What is Stop Out Level?

Stop Out Level is a level that is set by the brokers, which triggers them to take action when the Margin Level falls below this specified level (Stop Out Level). That is, when the Margin Level breaks below the Stop Out Level, the broker forcibly closes some of the trader’s position, usually without their consent. The positions are liquidated because of the unavailability of the margin in the account.

Before the broker closes the positions, the trader is first intimated that their Margin Level has significantly reduced and is at risk. This intimation is called Margin Call. If the Margin Level falls much more than the Margin Call Level and goes below the Stop Out Level, the positions are liquidated. And this process of liquidation is called Stop Out.

The complete flow to Stop Out

If we were to dig deeper, the dependency of Stop Out level drops down to the basic concepts like Balance, Margin, Floating P/L, etc.

For instance, when a trader takes a position, the above terms come into action. If the trade is in profit, the floating P/L increases, and there are no worries about the margin call and stop out as the margin level would be considerably higher than the margin call level and the stop out level. But, if the trade is running in the negative, eyes must be on the margin call level as well as stop out level. Let’s get this point clearer, with an example.

Let’s say a trader has deposited $1000 into his account and has used $200 for taking few positions. Consider the Stop Out Level to be at 20%.

If the trades are running in a loss of$970. The equity for this is calculated as:

Equity = balance + floating P/L = $1,000 + (-$970) = $30

Similarly, the margin level will be,

Margin level = (Equity/used margin) x 100% = ($30 / $200) x 100% = 15%

Now, since the margin level has gone below the stop out level, the positions are scratched off. So, the trader will have booked a loss of $970. And the newly updated balance will be $30.

This brings us to the end of this lesson on Stop Out Level. Also, this completes all the terminologies that are involved in Margin Trading. Take the quiz below and stay tuned to learn a different lesson tomorrow. Cheers!

[wp_quiz id=”51331″]
Categories
Forex Course

30. What Is Margin Level and How Is It Calculated?

Introduction

The margin concepts such as Used margin and Equity have proved to be essential to understand other margin terms. In this lesson, the concept of Margin level too revolves around the terms Used margin and Equity. Without further discussion, let’s get right into the understanding of the Margin level.

Margin Level

Margi level is the percentage ratio of Equity and Used margin. It is a term whose value is expressed in percentage. Also, the meaning of it is closely related to the Free margin.

The margin level determines if the trader can take new positions or not. It is a comparative factor as it is compared with a level set by the brokers. For easy comprehension, note that higher the margin level, higher is the possibility for the trader to take new positions and vice versa. Knowing the margin level is vital because this value has a relation with a Margin call and Stop out level as well.

Calculating Margin Level

The margin level is the ratio of Equity and Used margin expressed in terms of percentage.

Margin level = (Equity / Used Margin) x 100%

Understanding Margin Level

Similar to the Free margin, the Margin level will have no value when there are no positions open. This is simply because there is no margin used. However, when positions are open, the margin level has a non-zero value, which is dependent on the used margin and equity.

As mentioned earlier, the margin level determines if a trader is eligible to take new positions. And this is determined by the level set by the brokers. If the margin level falls below the level set by the brokers, the trader becomes ineligible to take a new position. Usually, the limit set by the brokers is 100%.

Example

Let’s say a trader has deposited $1,000 to their account and has gone long 10,000 units on USD/CAD. Below are the parameters that are to be calculated to determine the margin level:

  • Required margin
  • Used margin
  • Equity
Required Margin

If the margin requirement for this trade is 2%, the required margin will be,

Required margin = Notional value x Margin requirement = $10,000 x 2% = $200

Used Margin

Since there is only one position running, the value of the used margin will be equal to the value of the required margin, i.e., $200

Equity

Assuming the trade is running in a profit of $50, the equity is calculated as follows:

Equity = Account balance + Floating P/L = $1,000 + $50 = $1,050

Now that all the parameters are known, let’s go ahead and calculate the Margin level.

Margin Level

Margin level = (Equity / Used Margin) x 100% = ($1,050 / $200) x 100% = 525%

Now, since the value of the margin level is above 100%, the trader is still eligible to take new positions. This brings us to the end of this lesson on the Margin level. Don’t forget to take the below quiz.

[wp_quiz id=”50755″]