Tag: trading

Categories
Forex Course

184. Why Is It Important To Be Careful While Trading the News?

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

Now that you know about scheduled news releases in the forex market, you must be excited. You probably think that you have the most foolproof way of trading in the forex market. You might have even gone to the extent of planning your trades to coincide with the high-impact indicators; because they significantly affect price action, you can collect a lot of pips.

Well, if you have thought and planned all that, forget it! To successfully trade the news in the forex market, you have to be deliberately methodical and calculative. If not, you may end up wiping out your trading account.

We’re not saying that you shouldn’t trade the news. Quite the opposite, you should, but only, and only when you understand the implications of the news release. Let’s, for example, take the release of a high-impact economic indicator.

Usually, when high-impact economic indicators are released, they are followed by extreme market volatility. The US unemployment rate is a high-impact indicator. Its latest release on October 2, 2020, at 8.30 AM EST came in positive at 7.9% lower than the expected 8.2%.

In this case, you’d expect the USD to be stronger than the EUR. But immediately after the news was released, there was some volatility that made the pair gain 11 pips before adopting a bearish trend.

Eleven pips may not sound like a lot. But if you have a small trading account and using high leverage, the chances are that 11 pips in the wrong direction can wipe you out.

Watch out for geopolitics

When trading the news as scheduled in the economic calendar, it pays to monitor geopolitical developments that are not scheduled, especially in the current climate of trade wars. Declarations by influential political figures may influence trends in the forex market. In such cases, if the news release of economic indicators coincides with such events, their impact may be watered down or exacerbated.

Another reason why trading the news may not go as planned is because the outcome of a news release could already be priced into the market. Forex traders are skillful at anticipating – especially when it comes to interest rate releases. If they anticipate that central banks are going to cut interest rates, they will adjust their trades weeks or months in advance. In this case, when the actual rates are released, their impact will not be as pronounced.

Bottom Line

We’re not saying you shouldn’t trade the news. Just take your time and familiarize yourself with the different types of economic indicators. Do thorough backtesting and have a trading plan on how you will incorporate news releases into your trading.

[wp_quiz id=”94056″]
Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 01 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Manufacturing PMI Figures in Highlights!

Eyes will remain on the series of Manufacturing PMI figures from the Eurozone, UK, Canada, and the U.S. Although it is a low impact event, it may help determine the market sentiment today. The U.S. Fed Chair Powell will be in highlight as he is due to testify on the CARES Act before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, in Washington DC. Lastly, the ECB President Lagarde is also due to speak at an online event hosted by the Atlantic Council; however, it is now expected to significantly influence the Euro.

Eyes will remain on the series of Manufacturing PMI figures from the Eurozone, UK, Canada, and the U.S. Although it is a low impact event, it may help determine the market sentiment today. The U.S. Fed Chair Powell will be in highlight as he is due to testify on the CARES Act before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, in Washington DC. Lastly, the ECB President Lagarde is also due to speak at an online event hosted by the Atlantic Council; however, it is now expected to significantly influence the Euro.

Eyes will remain on the series of Manufacturing PMI figures from the Eurozone, UK, Canada, and the U.S. Although it is a low impact event, it may help determine the market sentiment today. The U.S. Fed Chair Powell will be in highlight as he is due to testify on the CARES Act before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, in Washington DC. Lastly, the ECB President Lagarde is also due to speak at an online event hosted by the Atlantic Council; however, it is now expected to significantly influence the Euro.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD closed at 1.19547 after placing a high of 1.20030 and a low of 1.19235. The currency pair EUR/USD surpassed the 1.20000 level on Monday amid the rising risk sentiment in the market and decreasing U.S. dollar; however, the pair started to lose its gains and ended up posting losses for the day.

The EUR/USD pair continued its bullish movement in the early trading session on Monday as the risk sentiment improved with more positive news from the coronavirus vaccine side. Pfizer has sent the first mass shipment of its vaccine to Chicago on Monday. Whereas, Moderna has applied for emergency use authorization of its vaccine from the US FDA on Monday. Both these latest reports from the vaccine side added further strength in the risk sentiment as it showed progress in steps that would eventually lead to global economic recovery.
The improved risk sentiment because of optimism regarding vaccine and economic recovery gave strength to riskier assets like EUR/USD pair on Monday.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar’s weakness also played an essential role in raising the currency pair EUR/USD above the 1.2000 level. The U.S. dollar was weak across the board due to the latest announcement that Congress has started its brief session to pass the next stimulus package for coronavirus.

Furthermore, both sides’ macroeconomic data were also in favor of pushing the currency pair EUR/USD near its mid-August high level on Monday. From the European Union side, The German Prelim CPI for November came in as -0.8% against the forecasted -0.7% and weighed on the single currency Euro. At 13:00 GMT, Spanish Flash CPI for the year came in as -0.8% against the forecasted -0.9% and supported Euro. At 15:00 GMT, the Italian Prelim CPI for November came in as -0.1%against the forecasted -0.2% and supported the single currency Euro.

On the U.S. dollar front, At 19:45 GMT, the Chicago PMI for November dropped to 58.2 against the anticipated 59.4 and weighed on the U.S. dollar. At 20:00 GMT, the Pending Home Sales for October fell to -1.1% against the estimated 1.1% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. However, the gains in the EUR/USD pair failed to remain till the end of the trading day and started to reverse in late trading hours amid the concerns of coronavirus pandemic in Europe. The outlook for the largest economy in the Eurozone, Germany, became increasingly uncertain due to the rising number of coronavirus cases surpassed above 1 Million.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.1962       1.1976
1.1954       1.1982
1.1948       1.1991
Pivot point: 1.1968

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The market’s technical side remains mostly unchanged on the back of a limited number of economic events on the calendar. The EUR/USD pair is trading with a bullish bias at the 1.1955 area, facing immediate resistance at the 1.2000 area. Closing of candles above the 1.1915 support level suggests odds of bullish bias in the EUR/USD as this level is extended by an ascending triangle breakout pattern. On the lower side, the EUR/USD may find support at the 1.1912 and the 1.1865 areas; however, bullish bias remains stable over the 1.1912 level.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD closed at 1.33229 after placing a high of 1.33856 and a low of 1.32911. The GBP/USD pair tried to rise and post gains for Monday but failed to do so and continued its bearish streak for the third consecutive day. The rise in GBP/USD pair in the earlier trading session on Monday was due to the hopes that there was little progress in Brexit talks between U.K. and E.U. to settle disputes on several issues, including the fishing quotas.

The rise in British Pound was due to the latest comments from French European Affairs Minister Clement Beaune. On Monday, he said that he hoped to see an agreement in the next few days and called on negotiators to leap required. He acknowledged that two sticking issues, U.K. fishing waters and the so-called level-playing field for business, are still unresolved.

As both sides have already warned each other that the time was running out, a French presidency official said on Monday that Britain should clarify its positions and consult to find a Brexit deal on its association with the European Union. He added that the E.U. also has the interest to fight for, to give fair competition for its businesses and fishermen. He said that the Union has made a clear and balanced offer for a future partnership with Britain and that the E.U. will not accept a substandard deal that would not respect the E.U.’s interests.

On the other hand, Boris Johnson’s officials believed that the Brexit trade deal could be reached within days if both sides continue working in good faith to resolve fishing rights’ big obstacle. The U.K.’s Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab called on the E.U. to recognize that regaining control over British waters was the question of sovereignty for Britain. He said that talks were going good and he believed a deal on fish might be achievable during the final week of talks.

These optimistic and hopeful comments from both sides added strength to the GBP/USD pair on Monday during the early trading session. Still, the currency pair failed to maintain its gains and started to decline and post losses for the day despite the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness due to insufficient macroeconomic data on the day.

On the U.S. dollar front, at 19:45 GMT, the Chicago PMI for November fell to 58.2 against the estimated 59.4 and weighed on the U.S. dollar. At 20:00 GMT, the Pending Home Sales for October also declined to -1.1% against the projected 1.1% and weighed on the U.S. dollar that capped further losses in GBP/USD pair.

From the Britain side, at 14:30 GMT, the M4 Money Supply for October from Britain was dropped to 0.6% against the forecasted 1.0% and weighed on British Pound and added further losses in GBP/USD pair. The Net Lending to Individuals for October also declined to 3.7B against the expected 4.7B and weighed on British Pound and supported the bearish momentum in GBP/USD pair. At 14:32 GMT, Mortgage Approvals for October raised to 98K against the anticipated 85K and supported British Pound and capped further losses in the currency pair.

Meanwhile, the GBP/USD pair’s bearish trend was continued for the third consecutive day because of the rising fears that the U.K. and E.U. will end up having no-deal at the end of the transition period that is due on December 31. Only a month has left behind to resolve both parties’ issues, and none of them has shown any lenience. If both sides failed to reach a deal by the end of the deadline, then the U.K. will be forced to trade with the E.U. under the World Trade Organization terms that will not be good for both sides.


Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3316       1.3342
1.3301       1.3353
1.3290       1.3368
Pivot point: 1.3327

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading sideways, within a narrow trading range of 1.3397 – 1.3304. The market is likely to exhibit choppy sessions until this narrow trading range gets violated. On the higher side, the GBP/USD is facing a triple top level at the 1.3397 level; however, the bullish breakout of the 1.3397 level can trigger a buying trend until the 1.3454 level. On the lower side, the Cable is supported over 1.3350 level, supported by an upward channel on the four hourly charts. The MACD suggests a buying trend, and we should look for a buy trade over the 1.3325 level or 1.3400 level today.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 104.289 after placing a high of 104.384 and a low of 103.830. After placing losses for two consecutive days, the USD/JPY pair rose on Monday as the U.S. dollar rebounds.

The broad-based U.S. dollar weakness in the early trading session pushed the USD/JPY pair lower after the hopes for the U.S. stimulus measure raised. However, Wall Street’s main indexes’ poor performance allowed the U.S. dollar to remain firm against its peers. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 indexes lost about 1.2% and 0.78% respectively on Monday, which added strength to the U.S. dollar and pushed the USD/JPY pair higher.

Meanwhile, on Monday, US Health Secretary Alex Azar said that Americans could get their first shot of coronavirus vaccine before Christmas if all thing went well. These comments from Azar added further strength in risk-sentiment and weighed on the safe metal Japanese Yen that added gains in USD/JPY pair. Furthermore, on Monday, Moderna applied for emergency authorization with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to start using its vaccine to reduce the effect of coronavirus. Pfizer and BioNtech, which has already filed for similar FDA approval earlier this month, sent the first mass shipment of its COVID-19 vaccine to Chicago through United Airlines on Friday. This positive news from the drug companies added optimism in the market and weighed on the safe-haven Japanese Yen that added further gains in the USD/JPY pair.

On the data front, at 04:50 GMT, the Prelim Industrial Production for October from Japan raised to 3.8% against the forecasted 2.3% and supported the Japanese Yen that capped further gains in the USD/JPY pair. The Retail Sales for the year from Japan stayed the same as expected by 6.4%. At 10:00 GMT, the Housing Starts for the year came from Japan came in as -8.3% against the forecasted -9.0% and supported the Japanese Yen.

On the U.S. dollar front, at 19:45 GMT, the Chicago PMI for November declined to 58.2 against the expected 59.4 and weighed on the U.S. dollar that capped further gains in the USD/JPY pair. At 20:00 GMT, the Pending Home Sales for October fell to -1.1% against the estimated 1.1% and weighed on the U.S. dollar that capped further gains in the USD/JPY pair.
Another factor involved in the risk sentiment that supported the upward momentum of the USD/JPY pair on Monday was the start of a brief session of Congress over the issue of a second stimulus bill for the coronavirus pandemic. The Democrats and Republicans were under dispute over the size of the stimulus package, and now that the Presidency has shifted from Republicans to Democrats after the victory of Joe Biden, it could be expected that a massive stimulus is on its way that would curb the effects of COVID-19 and support the risk sentiment of the market. The improved risk demand added pressure on the safe-haven Japanese yen and supported the USD/JPY pair on Monday. Another factor involved in the gains of the US/JPY pair was Pfizer’s vaccine’s shipment to Chicago on Monday, along with the latest application by Moderna to FDA for emergency use authorization of its vaccine.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

104.03       104.16
103.97       104.23
103.91      104.29
Pivot point: 104.10

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading with a sideways trading range of 104.475, holding below an immediate resistance level of 104.478. On the lower side, the safe-haven currency pair may find support at the 103.719 level. The pair seems to disrupt the resistance level of 104.478, and if this happens, the USD/JPY may soar until the next resistance area of 105.030 level. The MACD and RSI support the buying trend, but we should only take buying positions over the 104.500 level today. Good luck!

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Dec 1 – Bitcoin’s New Monthly All-Time High; Ethereum 2.0 Phase 0 Launches Today

The cryptocurrency sector has pushed further up as Bitcoin made a new all-time high for a moment. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap is currently trading for $19,443, representing an increase of 5.03% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum gained 3.45% on the day, while XRP managed to gain 3.78%.

The cryptocurrency sector has pushed further up as Bitcoin made a new all-time high for a moment. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap is currently trading for $19,443, representing an increase of 5.03% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum gained 3.45% on the day, while XRP managed to gain 3.78%.

The cryptocurrency sector has pushed further up as Bitcoin made a new all-time high for a moment. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap is currently trading for $19,443, representing an increase of 5.03% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum gained 3.45% on the day, while XRP managed to gain 3.78%.

 Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

BitTorrent gained 18.25% in the past 24 hours, making it the most prominent daily gainer in the top100. It is closely followed by Litecoin’s gain of 11.22% and Decentraland’s 7.69% gain. On the other hand, Numeraire lost 4.81%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by Waves’ loss of 5.78 and Zilliqa’s loss of 3.36%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s market dominance has increased slightly since we last reported, with its value currently staying at 62.4%. This value represents a 0.7% difference to the upside compared to the value it had yesterday.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The crypto sector capitalization has increased significantly in the past 24 hours. Its current value is $577.86 billion, representing a $24.86billion increase compared to our previous report.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

_______________________________________________________________________

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

Bitcoin has spent the day continuing its push towards the upside, even posting a new all-time high (on most exchanges) for a moment as it reached $19,864 on Bitstamp. However, the 20,000 mark and BitMEX’s $20,093 remain untouched. With the buys on exchanges and derivatives markets and institutional investments, a strong all-time high might be posted extremely soon.

Bitcoin trading is quite hard at the moment simply due to how the cryptocurrency moves. Still, traders can squeeze a profit if they trade along with the main trend and long Bitcoin when the volume increases.

BTC/USD 4-hour Chart

Bitcoin’s technicals on all time-frames are tilted towards the buy-side but show slight neutrality signs, or even slight signs of bearishness.

BTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Price is far above both its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
  • Price is near its top Bollinger band
  • RSI is near the overbought territory (69.43)
  • Volume is average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $19,500                                 1: $19,000

2: $19,666                                 2: $18,790

3: $20,000                                  3: $18,500

Ethereum

Ethereum has, just like Bitcoin, continued its climb up. However, the move has stopped slightly below its most recent highs, topping at $617.87. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap now has two scenarios to play out:

  1. It can create a double top and start moving back towards the supporting levels;
  2. It can continue moving up on fundamentals and break the recent high and the recent trading patterns it created.

Ethereum’s current fundamental outlook is extremely bullish due to its Phase 0 of Ethereum 2.0 launching. This, along with Bitcoin moving towards the upside, has made trading any potential pullbacks quite impossible due to the amount of potential risk such trade would carry.

ETH/USD 4-hour Chart

Ethereum’s 4-hour, daily, and monthly technicals are extremely bullish and show no signs of neutrality. On the other hand, its weekly time-frame’s sentiment is bullish but shows some neutrality.

ETH/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical Factors (4-hour Chart):
  • The price is far above both its 50-period and its 21-period EMA
  • Price is near its top Bollinger band
  • RSI is near being overbought (68.63)
  • Volume is average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $600                                     1: $510

2: $630                                     2: $500 

3: $735                                      3: $490

Ripple

The fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap has tried moving up, as well, but in a much tamer manner. XRP has established its presence above $0.625 and pushed towards $0.666, which stopped the move. XRP will most likely continue trading in a range-bound by $0.666 to the upside and either $0.625 or $0.596 to the downside

Trading XRP is quite difficult at the moment, and trading Bitcoin or Ethereum is potentially more profitable and slightly more straightforward.

XRP/USD 4-hour Chart

XRP’s technicals on the 4-hour and weekly time-frames are bullish but show some signs of neutrality. On the other hand, its daily and monthly overviews are completely bullish.

XRP/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • The price is above its 50-period EMA and slightly above its 21-period EMA
  • Price is between its middle and top Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (60.95)
  • Volume is average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $0.666                                   1: $0.625

2: $0.78                                     2: $0.596

3: $0.79                                   3: $0.535

 

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave Forex Market Analysis Forex Signals

Is EURNZD Developing a Terminal Formation?

The EURNZD cross presents a downward sequence in its 12-hour chart that began on August 20th when the price found fresh sellers at 1.82238. This sequence formed three internal segments and, recently, is likely forming a reversal movement in the following trading sessions.

Technical Overview

The previous chart illustrates the bearish primary trend identified with the descending trendline, drawn in blue. Moreover, the secondary trend, plotted in green, reveals an aggressive decline that is happening since October 20th when the cross found resistance at 1.80212. But we see all that the EURNZD price seems to have found support on November 23rd on 1.69472. Currently, the price action appears consolidating in a narrow range between 1.69622 and 1.70645.

In Elliott Wave theory terms, the cross is advancing in an incomplete downward corrective sequence of Minute degree identified in black, which currently is drawing its wave ((c)). Likewise, its internal structure suggests the progress in the fifth wave of Minuette degree labeled in blue.

The following 2-hour chart reveals the EURNZD cross is moving mostly sideways following a descending wedge breakout, or in terms of the Elliott Wave theory, an ending diagonal breakout. 

Nevertheless, the bullish reversal is still unconfirmed as long as the cross keeps moving below the level of 1.70486.

Short-term Technical Outlook

The EURNZD cross shown in its 2-hour chart below presents a sideways movement below the pivot level of 1.70486, which could correspond to the fifth wave of Minuette degree, labeled in blue. 

Considering that the cross remains in a consolidation structure, there are two potential scenarios:

  • The first scenario occurs if the price action breaks and closes above the 1.70486 pivot level. In this case, the EURNZD could develop an upward movement. According to the Dow Theory, the cross should make an upward motion to the area between 1.73016 and 1.76560. Likewise, the invalidation level for this reversal scenario is seen on 1.69472, which corresponds to the low made on November 24th.
  • The second scenario calls for the price to drop and close below the 1.69472 level. If that happens, the cross could continue its decline toward the lows zone made in January, near the 1.6650 level. The price could find support and complete the wave ((c)) of Minute degree labeled in black. In this scenario, the invalidation level would be located above the last relevant swing high of 1.70961.

However, let’s remember that as long as the price doesn’t confirm any breakout, bullish, or bearish, the bias should be kept neutral.

Categories
Forex Basic Strategies

Successfully Scalp Forex Pairs with these Two Tools

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

Scalping is a short term trading style, and it is quite popular among professional Forex traders. This type of trading is more concise than day trading, which involves traders placing buy/sell orders throughout the trading day. But Scalping is different. Scalpers believe that making money from the small price action moves is easier than waiting for the considerable moves.

For scalping, our focus should be mostly on technical analysis rather than fundamentals.  By using technical analysis, traders use historical price information to predict the future price movement. To be successful in scalping, traders must have live feeds, direct access to the broker, and have the stamina & patience to sit in front of the computer and place as many trades as possible in smaller time frames to make money.

Scalping typically requires smaller timeframes such as a 5-minute, 15-minute, or even 1-minute charts. Some traders also use the tick chart or 30-seconds chart to scalp the Forex market. However, it requires an advanced skill set to be successful at this because the lower the timeframe is, the faster it moves. In this article, Let’s learn how to scalp the 1-minute Forex charts using Pin bars and Trend lines.

Pin Bars

Pin Bar is a candlestick pattern that consists of only one candle, which represents a sharp reversal. There are two types of Pin Bar.

  1. The Bullish Pin Bar’s closing price is higher than the candle’s opening price, and the candle’s wick must be two to three times longer than the real body.
  2. The Bearish Pin Bar’s closing price is lower than the candle’s opening price, and the tail of the candle must be two to three times longer than the real body.

Trend Lines

Trend lines act as an essential tool for analysts while performing technical analysis. These lines are a visual representation of support and resistance levels in any trading timeframe. Traders apply these trend lines on the price charts to get a clear picture of the ongoing trend to make an accurate trading decision. Also, the trend lines on the highs and lows of the price chart create a channel.

Trading Strategy – Pin Bars + Trendlines

The one-minute trading timeframe volatiles a lot, and this small timeframe never moves in a single trend. We will always see the transitions from buy trend to sell and sell trend to buy in less than a couple of minutes. This is the essence of trading the lower timeframes. Therefore, before trading the one-minute timeframe, it is advisable to let go of all of your rigid trading beliefs.

Most of the scalpers fall into their ego and deny to close their losing positions. If you fall into this trap, then scalping is not for you. You must have a strong mindset and follow the rules like world-class traders to scalp the Forex market successfully.

Buy Examples

As you can see in the below image of the GBP/CHF Forex pair, the price was in an uptrend. Whenever the price approached the trend line, buyers immediately came back and printed a Pin bar candle, which is an indication to go long.

In this example, the market gives us three buying opportunities, and all the three trades performed well. When you take an entry at the pin bar formation, and the very next candle goes against you and closes below the pin bar, it is an indication for you to close your positions and wait for the next signal. On a one-minute time frame, always go for 2-3 pip stop loss and 6-7 pip targets only.

Below is another buying example in the GBP/AUD Forex pair. Here, the market gave us only one trading opportunity. As the price chart implies, the buyers were in complete control, and the price action is moving calmly. This means that there is a very less chance of spikes or fake outs. It is always advisable to find the less volatile currencies and try not to scalp the opening hours of the market.

Sell Examples

In the below USD/CHF 1-minute Forex chart, the overall trend was down. We can see the price printing the pin bars twice in a downtrend, which indicates us to go short. There are various ways to close your positions. We can choose any significant support/resistance area to book profit or close our positions when the price action starts to lose its momentum.

Some scalpers prefer to ride longer moves based on the market circumstances, while some like to close their positions after making 5 to 6 pips. So exiting completely depends on your trading style.

Below is another selling example of this strategy in the USD/CHF Forex pair. When price approached the trend line in a downtrend, we can see the market printing Pin Bars. This shows that the price action is ready to print brand new lower lows. Activate your trade when the market gives both the signals. In healthy market conditions, expect brand new lower lows or higher highs, and please avoid trading choppy market conditions.

Conclusion

Scalping proved to be a great way to make profits in a very short time. Make sure to understand that it requires a lot of hard work, patience, and dedication to master trading the lower timeframes. The more the trades you get into, the more the amount of money you will make. Scalping can be very difficult in the beginning, but with some practice and a right strategy, you will get the hang of it.

It is hard to scalp the 1-minute chart by using price action alone. Most of the highly successful scalpers use some indicators and candlestick patterns to confirm the market trend. Using the pin bars and trend lines on the 1-minute chart will help you filter out the bad trading signals, and this will drastically enhance the odds of your trades. Cheers!

Categories
Forex Videos

Forex Forecast – Will We See A Rising Dollar As The Stock Markets Crash?

https://youtu.be/9rcYwv67xSQ

https://youtu.be/9rcYwv67xSQ

 


Where next for the US Dollar? 

Thank you for joining this Forex Academy Educational video

The US dollar is the most widely traded currency on the planet.  In terms of volume, the biggest currencies traded against it are the Euro, Japanese Yen, the British pound, Swiss franc, the Australian and New Zealand dollar, and Canadian dollar. 

The dollar is measured as a weighted value against these other currencies and is referred to as the dollar index or DXY. Here we can see that at the time of writing, the value is 91.79, a two-year low.

As we can see here, the dollar has been broadly declining against this basket of currencies since March 2020, when the index hit a high of 103.00, just before the pandemic began to take a grip in the United States.  And with the pandemic still gripping the United States, where just last week 1 million new cases were recorded, could the DXY continue its demise, perhaps down to the 2008 crash level of 72.00? Certainly, some analysts are predicting a slide into the high 80.00’s?

With winter knocking on the door in the United States and pressure mounting on hospitals, the nation’s economy, which has been showing signs of a recovery, albeit at the expense of a lockdown, where President Trump favours the economy over individual’s health, and which might prove a sticking point with the second wave resurgence in motion and a new president in the waiting.

And with US stocks at record highs and with the Dow Jones industrial 30 index somewhat inflated around the 30,000 level, could a short sharp reality check be on the way for the American economy, where the unemployment rate has started to rise in recent weeks? 

If you believe the answer is yes, then us stocks should fall, and in which case we might see the dollar being bought as a safe-haven currency and possibly a rally to the mid 90.00’s.

Another key factor is a failure to pass the new US stimulus bill, which might cause the federal reserve to become more proactive and take an aggressive stance on quantitative easing, which would be negative for the US dollar.  This is unlikely to happen until the January inauguration of the president-elect Joe Biden.

 Another contentious issue which will affect the dollar is the continuation of the Brexit future trade agreement talks with the European Union, which are dragging on but must be concluded shortly if there is to be enough time to implement a new tariff-free trade deal which both parties want, but which seems to be unobtainable because of the lack of agreement on issues such as fisheries and a so-called level playing field, where the EU is concerned that the UK will use its new free trading status to undercut it for trade deals as it goes out to sign up new ones around the world.

 And therefore, any dollar related trading should be done with extreme caution as these issues unfold and where recent swings in pairs such as the GBPUSD, sitting at 1.3315 and EURUSD at 1.1965 at the time of writing, could see significant moves in either direction based on the above metrics. Caution is advised.

 

Categories
Forex Fundamental Analysis

Does ‘Retail Sales Monitor’ (RSM) Economic Indicator Impacts The Forex Market?

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

The level of demand can be said to be the primary driving factor in any economy. In the long run, the fiscal and monetary policies that are implemented by governments and central banks can be traced back to the aggregate demand within the economy. The consumption by households accounts for over 65% of the national GDP. Since retail sales account for most of the consumption by households, monitoring retail sales data can provide a useful predictor of the GDP and inflation.

Understanding Retail Sales Monitor

The Retail Sales Monitor is a precise measure of the performance in the retail sector. The RSM is measured monthly in the UK by the British Retail Consortium (BRC), whose participating members represent about 70% of the UK’s retail industry.

Source: The UK Office for National Statistics

The BRC is comprised of over 170 major retailers and thousands of independent retailers. The BRC member businesses have sales of over £180 billion and with 1.5 million employees. Since the RSM measures the change in the actual value of same-store sales in BRC-member retail outlets in the UK, the data can be used as a confident measure of the UK’s retail sector health and the broader economy.

In the UK, the retail sector is the largest employer in the private sector, which means that tracking the retail sector changes gives an overview of the economy and business cycles and insights into the labor market.

Using Retail Sales Monitor in Analysis

The RSM data couldn’t be more relevant in the current climate of Coronavirus afflicted economy and post-Brexit operating environment. Here are some of the ways this data can and is used for analysis.

In any economy, growth is driven by demand. Household purchases account for over 65% of the GDP, which makes the RSM data a vital leading indicator of economic health. When the retail sales monitor shows an increase in households’ consumption, it means that more money is circulating in the economy.

Several factors can be attributed to increased demand by households. Firstly, increased employment levels in the economy or an increase in real wages mean that the economy’s overall disposable income also increases. As a result, households can now consume more quantities of goods and services. More so, the increased disposable income tends to lead to the flourishing of discretionary consumer industries and a general rise in the aggregate demand.

An increase in aggregate supply leads to the expansion of production activities hence overall economic growth. Secondly, increased demand can be a sign of easy access to affordable funding by the households. Generally, if households and businesses have easy access to cheaper financing sources, it forebodes an increase in economic activities, which leads to economic expansion.

As an economic indicator, the retail sales monitor can be used as an authoritative leading indicator of recessions and recoveries since its data covers over 70% of the retail sector. For example, when the economy is at its peak, it is characterized by RSM’s historical highs and lower unemployment levels. When the RSM begins to drop consistently, this can be taken as a sign that the economy is undergoing a recession. The period of recession is characterized by an increase in the rate of unemployment and lower disposable income, which makes households cut back on their consumption and prioritize essential goods and services.

Source: Retail Economics

Conversely, when the economy is at its lowest during recessions or depressions, it is characterized by historical lows RSM and a higher unemployment rate. In this scenario, when the RSM begins to rise steadily, it could be taken as a sign that the economy is undergoing recovery. This period will be marked by improving labor market conditions hence increased demand that drives the RSM higher.

Using the RSM as a leading indicator of recessions and recoveries can help governments and central banks implement fiscal and monetary policies. When the RSM drops and shows signs that the economy could be headed for a recession, expansionary fiscal and monetary policies could be implemented. These policies will help to stimulate the economy and avoid depression.

On the other hand, when the RSM is continually rising at a faster rate, contractionary monetary and fiscal policies could be implemented. These policies are meant to mop up excess liquidity of the money supply and increase borrowing costs, thus avoiding an unsustainable rate of inflation and an overheating economy.

Impact on Currency

There are two main ways in which the RSM data can impact a country’s currency. By showing the economic growth and as an indicator for potential monetary and fiscal policies.

When the RSM has been steadily increasing, forex traders can anticipate that contractionary policies will be implemented to avoid unsustainable economic growth. One of such policies involves interest rate hikes, which make the currency appreciate relative to others. Conversely, expansionary monetary and fiscal policies can be anticipated in the event of a persistent drop in the RSM. Such policies include cutting interest rates, which depreciates the local currency.

The currency can be expected to be relatively stronger when the RSM is increasing. In this case, economic conditions are improving, unemployment levels are dropping, and a general improvement in households’ welfare. On the other hand, a dropping RSM is negative for the currency because it is seen as an indicator of a contracting economy and worsening labor conditions.

Sources of Data

In the UK, the RSM data is collated by the British Retail Consortium and KPMG. The data is published monthly by the British Retail Consortium.

How Retail Sales Monitor Data Release Affects Forex Price Charts

The recent publication of the retail sales monitor data was on October 12, 2020, at 11.00 PM GMT and accessed at Forex Factory.

The screengrab below from Forex Factory; as can be seen, a low impact on the GBP is expected when the RSM data is published.

In September 2020, the BRC increased by 6.1%. This change was greater than the 4.7% change recorded in August 2020 and higher than the analysts’ expectation of a 3.5% change. Theoretically, this positive RSM is expected to have a positive impact on the GBP.

Let’s see how this release impacted the GBP/USD forex charts.

EUR/USD: Before the Retail Sales Monitor Release on October 12, 2020, 
Just Before 11.00 PM GMT

Before the publication of the RSM data, the GBP/USD pair was trading in a neutral pattern. As shown by the 5-minute chart above, the 20-period MA had flattened with candles forming just around it.

EUR/USD: After the Retail Sales Monitor Release on October 12, 2020, 
at 11.00 PM GMT

The pair formed a 5-minute ‘Inverted Hammer’ candle after the RSM data publication. However, the release of the data did not have any noticeable impact on the pair. The GBP/USD pair continued trading in the previously observed neutral trend with the 20-period MA still flattened.

Bottom Line

Most forex traders tend to pay attention to the retail sales data, which is usually scheduled for ten days after the RSM publication. The retail sales data are considered to cover the entire economy hence the low-impact nature of the retail sales monitor as an indicator in the forex market.

Categories
Forex Course

183. Introduction To Trading The ‘News’

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

The forex market, or any other financial market, is always driven by sentiment. And by sentiment, we mean; investors will only pay what they believe an asset is worth. More so, their investment decisions are primarily ‘future-looking,’ meaning that the types of trades they make will reflect their expectations about the value of the asset they trade.

So, what drives the price of currency pairs in the forex market?

The simplest answer is the fundamentals of a country. Let’s revisit the forex basics here for a bit. The price of a currency pair is the exchange rate between two currencies. This price doesn’t just move up and down arbitrarily. It is determined by the economic value of either country – what is called fundamentals. You might be tempted to think that technical indicators drive price action in forex. Quite the opposite – almost all the time, the technical indicator follows the news.

So, when one country’s fundamentals improve or are believed to improve, the value of its currency will increase relative to other currencies. Similarly, when the country’s fundamentals deteriorate or are expected to worsen, the currency will depreciate.

Remember the laws of demand and supply. When the demand is high, prices tend to go up, and when demand falls, prices fall along with it. The same applies to the forex market. When fundamentals improve or are expected to improve, the currency is in high demand making its value increase. When fundamentals worsen or are expected to, traders dump the currency as its value drops.

So, how do forex traders know if the fundamentals of the country have improved or worsened? News! News, as always, is the carrier of everything.

Where to find News in the Forex Market?

In the forex market, news can be delivered in various ways. There are hundreds, if not thousands, of organizations and government agencies that publish various economic indicators. But don’t worry, you won’t have to go through thousands of webpages just to find relevant news regarding the currency pairs you are trading. Things are a bit neat in the forex market when it comes to news releases. The economic calendar simplifies things for you. Here, you will find virtually every scheduled publication of economic indicators from every country! This way, you get to know what’s happening and when it is happening.

Here’s a screengrab of an economic calendar.

Furthermore, these scheduled releases have been categorized depending on the magnitude of their impact. Of course, not all economic indicators impact a currency the same way. Some have negligible effects.

[wp_quiz id=”94071″]
Categories
Cryptocurrencies

Forex or Crypto, Which Way 2021?

It is not strange for beginner investors to conflate forex and crypto trading. Although they are similar in some ways, these two industries have significant differences. 

It is not strange for beginner investors to conflate forex and crypto trading. Although they are similar in some ways, these two industries have significant differences. 

It is not strange for beginner investors to conflate forex and crypto trading. Although they are similar in some ways, these two industries have significant differences. 

As the new year approaches, new and seasoned investors alike need information on how the different markets are likely to turn out as we expect each market to behave uniquely. Some cryptocurrencies tend to boom in the last quarter of the year, as we’re currently seeing with Bitcoin. On the other hand, currency exchange pairs tend to be more affected by geopolitical and economic happenings. 

While this article does not intend to claim that one is better than the other, we will highlight the key similarities, differences, benefits, and risks of both forex and crypto, with a focus on recent market trends. Hopefully, you will determine which investment will be suitable for you in the coming year.

What is the Forex Market?

The forex market is a decentralized market where foreign currencies are exchanged. Being decentralized means, there is no single global authority that controls the trade. However, the central banks in each country have a major influence on what prices their local currency fetches against foreign currency. This is how they balance imports and exports to keep their economies happy.

Anyone can participate in forex trade because it simply involves buying and selling currency, which most banks accept. Forex trading is usually done through FX brokers. Many online forex brokers such as IQ Broker offer convenient forex trading. With extensive research, some practice, a little courage, and luck, you can reap big trading forex. 

What about Crypto Trading?

Crypto trading involves buying and selling cryptocurrencies – much like with forex. This activity happens on crypto exchanges like Etoro, Coinbase, and Binance. Like forex trading, crypto trading is usually done through brokers or exchanges, giving it as much flexibility. Also, anyone can be part of over the $250 B that changes hands daily (as of November 2020) on different crypto exchanges. 

Forex and Crypto: Similarities

There’s so much similarity between forex and crypto trading that you’d be forgiven for conflating the two. Let’s look at some of the top similarities.

  • You need to be knowledgeable enough to engage in either. Otherwise, you’d be setting yourself up for losses.
  • Market forces, including investor sentiment and supply/demand, determine how both forex and crypto prices shift. 
  • One can close a trade in a relatively short time in either of the two.
  • Both involve buying and selling instruments, including currencies, crypto coins, tokens, futures, and other complex financial assets.
  • On the same note, both of these markets have different players. These include institutions and individual players, each looking to make some profits out of the market.

Technology, more so information technology, plays a crucial role in expanding these two markets. Although the forex market came in before the computers and the internet, forex is what it is today thanks to information technology. On the other hand, we could not be talking about Cryptocurrencies without the internet and computers.

Differences between Forex and Crypto Trading

Several differences distinguish forex markets from crypto markets. 

  • Forex markets usually operate during business days, typically Monday-Friday. On the other hand, the crypto market is on 24/7, 365 days a year. This gives crypto some edge when it comes to trading flexibility. 
  • Forex markets are inherently more stable, thanks to the involvement of central banks. Crypto markets, on the flip side, are notoriously volatile. Whether this is an advantage really depends on an investor’s point of view. 
  • Crypto markets tend to be riskier than forex markets, mainly due to their higher volatility. 
  • Forex trading is more regulated and protected, which means it can pose less trading risk. However, less risk means fewer returns.
  • With forex, you do not need a wallet or the technicalities that crypto trading comes with. All you need is an account to deposit funds and you are ready to go.

Which One Is Better?

Now, investors themself can best answer this question. Generally,  each market has unique characteristics that will appeal to some investors and not others. Still, the following factors can help you in determining which one would work better for you:

If you are more risk-averse, forex trading may be your go-to option. As we said earlier, crypto markets can be very turbulent. For instance, Bitcoin has been moving by even up to $2,000 USD a week, especially since October. No central bank would sit and watch such sudden price movements on their forex markets. So, if you thrill in dramatic movements in return for higher rewards, crypto sounds better.

The crypto market (led by Bitcoin) is currently on the bull run. The time is ripe for reaping huge from crypto. We’re not saying that crypto is now a get-rich-quick market. But all indications are that it is presently the most lucrative. On the flip side, many investors will lose big if the market goes on a free fall (an inevitability). Thus, short-term investors may find crypto more suitable in the coming months. 

If you’re looking to grow your investment over a long time, say beyond 2021, crypto trading may give you a better platform. While forex pairs usually oscillate between stiff margins, cryptocurrencies can rise exponentially over time. This growth depends on how well the crypto’s backing project is implemented. However, you can multiply your investment by investing in crypto with the potential to grow – something that’s not possible with forex.

Now that you have more clarity on the way ahead, what would be the next steps? If you prefer to venture into forex trading, you need to find the best brokers. Check out our reviews for some of the top brokers you can choose from. On the other hand, if you prefer the ‘wild west’ crypto market, you can choose to trade with brokers that support crypto or opt for crypto exchanges. 

Final Thoughts

Both forex and crypto trading offer investors opportunities for growing their investments. However, each market has its own characteristics. From a returns viewpoint, the main difference between the two is that forex offers moderate profits while crypto trading can have much higher returns. The bottom line is, forex trading favors investors who prefer less risk, while crypto is for more adventurous investors. Whichever investment you pick in 2021, ensure that the market’s risk and return profile are to your preference. 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, November 30 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – ECB President Lagarde Speaks!

On the news front, the eye will remain on the ECB President Lagarde Speaks, OPEC Meetings, Chicago PMI, and Pending Home Sales m/m. The U.S. events are expected to perform badly, and the dollar index can bear a bearish hit.

On the news front, the eye will remain on the ECB President Lagarde Speaks, OPEC Meetings, Chicago PMI, and Pending Home Sales m/m. The U.S. events are expected to perform badly, and the dollar index can bear a bearish hit.

On the news front, the eye will remain on the ECB President Lagarde Speaks, OPEC Meetings, Chicago PMI, and Pending Home Sales m/m. The U.S. events are expected to perform badly, and the dollar index can bear a bearish hit.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.19637 after placing a high of 1.19637 and a low of 1.19060. EUR/USD pair raised near its highest level since August amid the increasing risk-on sentiment. Due to Thanksgiving celebrations, the EUR/USD pair continued to move higher in the upward direction in the absence of U.S. traders.

The risk perceived EUR/USD pair gained traction on Friday after the optimism surrounding the market related to the coronavirus vaccine increased. The hopes for a quick economic recovery also increased along with the vaccine progress and supported the market’s risk sentiment that lifted the global equity market on Friday.

The news regarding vaccines from several candidates and their efficacy rates raised hopes that the economy would come back to its pre-pandemic levels, and that weighed on the safe-haven greenback. The U.S. dollar was also weak across the board after the smooth transition of the White House. Joe Biden is set to take power on January 20, and he is expected to work on a second stimulus bill that would weigh on the U.S. dollar.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) that measures the U.S. dollar value against the six currencies basket was also under pressure and at a new monthly low level at 91.8 level on Friday. The U.S. dollar weakness combined with the vaccine optimism added strength in the EUR/USD pair and helped it reach near its highest since mid-August level.

Meanwhile, the single currency Euro was also strong on Friday after releasing strong macroeconomic data from the European Union. At 12:00 GMT, German Import Prices for October raised to 0.3% against the expected 0.1% and supported Euro. At 12:45 GMT, the French Consumer Spending for October also raised to 3.7% from the forecasted 3.6% and supported the single currency Euro. The French Prelim CPI for November surged to 0.2% against the forecasted 0.0% and supported Euro. The French Prelim GDP for the quarter also surged to 18.7% against the anticipated 18.2% and supported Euro. The Euro’s strength added further gains in the already rising EUR/USD pair and pushed it higher on board.
The rising risk sentiment in the market also supported the stock market worldwide as the outlook of the upcoming year 2021 was improved due to the successful development of the coronavirus vaccine.

Furthermore, the victory of Joe Biden in the U.S. Presidential elections also added positivity to the market mood because he has signaled a more promising approach toward international relations, unlike Trump. Due to his promise of keeping smooth trade relations with China and other countries, the favorable global trade conditions improved the global risk sentiment and supported the riskier assets like EUR/USD pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.1885      1.1934

1.1859      1.1957

1.1836      1.1983

Pivot point: 1.1908

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD pair is trading with a bullish bias at the 1.1974 area, facing immediate resistance at the 1.1975 area. Closing of candles below this level suggests chances of bearish correction as the pair has entered the overbought zone. However, the bullish breakout of the 1.1975 level can extend the buying trend until the next resistance level of the 1.2010 level. The bullish bias remains dominants today. Let us consider taking a selling trade below the 1.1979 level, and above this, the next target stays at 1.1997.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.33066 after placing a high of 1.33815 and a low of 1.32856. The GBP/USD pair continued its previous day’s bearish move and extended its losses on Friday amid the increased Brexit worries. Despite the positive risk environment in the market, the currency pair GBP/USD pair posted losses for the day on Friday as the deadline for the transition period was coming closer day by day, and a deal has still not been secured. With only 34 days left for the Brexit-transition period to end, the pressure on both sides, the E.U. and the U.K., has increased to reach a deal by Saturday to complete the required paper-work legislation process in time.

Chief EU negotiator Michel Barnier reached London for in-person talks after completing his quarantine, and this was the only positive news surrounding Brexit. UK PM Boris Johnson has said that the U.K. will prosper with or without a deal, and the likelihood of a deal is dependent on the E.U. There were still disagreements on Fisheries, governance, and level playing field that needed to sort out to reach a deal.

The rising uncertainty regarding Brexit has been weighing on the local currency British Pound. The E.U. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, along with the E.U. chief negotiator Barnier, said that they do not know if a deal was possible as the talks were in progress.

On Friday, Barnier told MEPs that he was prepared for a further four days of make-or-break Brexit negotiations, with growing skepticism among E.U. member states about the utility of further talks. Barnier has said that he would work through the weekend and then maybe one-or-two more days in the last-ditch attempt to bridge the large gaps between both sides and reach a deal.

E.U. sources have said that there was a growing feeling that the lack of progress and the need to prepare businesses for the consequences of a no-deal British departure from the E.U. made it unwise for talks to continue beyond then. These concerning statements from both sides have weighed on British Pound and added losses in GBP/USD pair.
Whereas, the U.K.’s foreign minister Dominic Raab said on Sunday that the next week would be very significant for Brexit, in reply to how near the deadline was in trade talks with the European Union. He said that this was a very significant week, the last real major week, subject to further postponement.

As the last 4-6 days for securing a Brexit deal have reached, the local currency pressure also increased and weighed on Sterling that ultimately weighed o GBP/USD pair ahead of any decision despite the improved risk sentiment in the market because of vaccines progress.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3319     1.3397
1.3281     1.3437
1.3241     1.3475
Pivot point: 1.3359

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD traded in line with our previous forecast to hit the support level of 1.333, which is extended by an upward channel. On the higher side, Cable may find resistance at 1.3400 level that’s extended by the double top pattern on the two-hour timeframe. Simultaneously, the bullish crossover of the 1.3400 level is likely to open additional room for buying until the 1.3446 level. On the 4 hour timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has formed a bullish channel that supports the pair at the 1.333 area, and violation of this level on the lower side can drive a sharp selling trend until the 1.3270 mark. The RSI and MACD are suggesting a selling trend in sterling. However, I will prefer to open a buying trade over the 1.3330 area and selling trade below the same level today.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 104.064 after placing a high of 104.279 and a low of 103.904. Despite the improved risk-on market sentiment, the USD/JPY pair dropped for the second consecutive session amid the U.S. dollar weakness. The U.S. dollar weakness was driven by the increased expectations of a large-scale stimulus from the new Biden administration to combat the coronavirus pandemic. Joe Biden has been fighting to provide massive stimulus support to the economy to fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. As he has won the U.S. Presidential elections and is now due to take power on January 20, the chances for a massive stimulus fiscal support to the economy has increased and weighed on the U.S. dollar.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) that tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies was down by 0.1% to a 3-months lower level at 91.8. The trade market volume was also limited, keeping the U.S. dollar under pressure due to Thanksgiving Holiday in the U.S. as many traders were enjoying a long weekend.

Meanwhile, the environment around U.S. politics also got better with President Trump’s latest decision to leave office regarding Electoral College votes for Biden. This smooth transition of power in the White House also supported the risk-on market sentiment and weighed over the safe-haven greenback that added losses in the currency pair USD/JPY.
Furthermore, on the data front, at 04:30 GMT, the Tokyo Core CPI for the year came in as -0.7% against the expected -0.6% and weighed on the Japanese Yen and capped further losses in the USD/JPY pair on Friday.
The risk-on market sentiment failed to impress the USD/JPY buyers. The traders were more focused on the U.S. dollar’s weakness instead of the rising optimism surrounding the global economic recovery due to vaccine development.

Several candidates worldwide, including Pfizer & BioNtech, Moderna, and AstraZeneca, have reported a 60-95% efficacy rate of their vaccine ad said that it would be available for use within weeks as some have applied for US FDA approval for emergency authorization use.

AstraZeneca vaccine is considered the cheapest vaccine as it can be stored at ordinary room temperature or refrigerator temperature, but it requires two dosages to reach a 90% efficacy rate. The hopes for global economic recovery and the outlook for 2021 have improved and weighed on the safe-haven U.S. dollar that ultimately added pressure on the USD/JPY pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

104.27      104.63

104.09      104.79

103.92      104.98

Pivot point: 104.44

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY pair’s recent price action has violated the choppy trading range of 104.700 – 104.056. On the lower side, the USD/JPY pair can drop further until the next support level of 103.667 level, especially after the breakout of the 104.150 support level. On the higher side, a bullish breakout of 104.700 resistance can extend the buying trend until the next resistance area of 104.700 and 105.063 level. On the lower side, the support continues to hold around the 103.667 level. The MACD suggests selling bias in the USD/JPY pair; thus, we should consider selling trade below 104.150 and buying above the same. Good luck!

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Nov 30 – Ethereum Soars on Great Fundamentals; Bitcoin Bulls Back in the Game

The cryptocurrency sector has spent the weekend regaining what was lost during the crash on Nov 25. Almost every single cryptocurrency in the top100 ended up being in the green. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap is currently trading for $18,369, representing an increase of 4.43% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum gained 9.79% on the day, while XRP managed to gain 6.67%.

The cryptocurrency sector has spent the weekend regaining what was lost during the crash on Nov 25. Almost every single cryptocurrency in the top100 ended up being in the green. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap is currently trading for $18,369, representing an increase of 4.43% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum gained 9.79% on the day, while XRP managed to gain 6.67%.

The cryptocurrency sector has spent the weekend regaining what was lost during the crash on Nov 25. Almost every single cryptocurrency in the top100 ended up being in the green. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap is currently trading for $18,369, representing an increase of 4.43% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum gained 9.79% on the day, while XRP managed to gain 6.67%.

 Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

Kusama gained 19.14% in the past 24 hours, making it the most prominent daily gainer in the top100. It is closely followed by Ampleforth’s gain of 16.24% and Zilliqa’s 13.48% gain. On the other hand, Numeraire Coin lost 5.56%, making it the most prominent daily loser. There were no other cryptocurrencies in the top100 that lost over 1% of its value.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s market dominance has decreased slightly since we last reported, with its value currently staying at 61.7%. This value represents a 0.5% difference to the downside compared to the value it had on Friday.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The crypto sector capitalization has increased significantly over the weekend. Its current value is $553.00 billion, representing a $38.14 billion increase compared to our previous report.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

_______________________________________________________________________

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

Bitcoin has spent the weekend recovering from the Nov 25 crash. The price was slowly going up over the weekend, creeping up to and past $18,000 once again. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap is currently between its 61.8% and 78.6% Fib retracement levels, and a break to either side of this range may determine its short-term fate.

Bitcoin’s short-term future will greatly depend on if it breaks its immediate support or resistance level. In both cases, a strong rally towards that side may form, so traders should be prepared to “catch” the trade quickly.

BTC/USD 1-hour Chart

Bitcoin’s daily, weekly, and monthly technicals are tilted towards the buy-side but show slight neutrality signs. On the other hand, its 4-hour technicals are completely bullish.

BTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Price is above both its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
  • Price is near its top Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (62.26)
  • Volume is average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $18,500                                 1: $17,850

2: $18,790                                 2: $17,450

3: $19,000                                  3: $17,000

Ethereum

Ethereum has, just like Bitcoin, been climbing back and trying to reach its recent highs. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap is currently fighting to pass the 78.6% Fib retracement level, sitting at $592.5. If this level gets conquered with conviction, we may expect another run past $600.

Ethereum’s current fundamental outlook is very bullish due to its Phase 0 of Ethereum 2.0 launching. This, combined with Bitcoin moving towards the upside, has made trading any potential pullbacks impossible due to how risky it would be.

ETH/USD 4-hour Chart

Ethereum’s 4-hour, daily, and monthly technicals are completely bullish and show no signs of neutrality. On the other hand, its sentiment seen in the weekly time-frame’s is bullish but shows some neutrality.

ETH/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical Factors (4-hour Chart):
  • The price is far above both its 50-period and its 21-period EMA
  • Price is at its top Bollinger band
  • RSI is near being overbought(68.26)
  • Volume is average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $600                                     1: $510

2: $630                                     2: $500 

3: $735                                      3: $490

Ripple

The fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap has spent the weekend trying to maintain its level after a small rally that took its price from $0.55 to $0.65. XRP seems to be trading in a range, bound by the 38.2% Fib retracement ($0.582) and 61.8% Fib retracement ($0.657).

Trading XRP may not be optimal as trading Bitcoin, or Ethereum is potentially more profitable and slightly more straightforward.

XRP/USD 2-hour Chart

XRP’s technicals on shorter time-frames (4-hour and daily) are extremely bullish, while its weekly and monthly overviews show some signs of neutrality and bearishness (though they are still bullish).

XRP/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • The price is above its 50-period EMA and slightly above its 21-period EMA
  • Price is between its middle and top Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (58.86)
  • Volume is average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $0.657                                   1: $0.625

2: $0.711                                     2: $0.582

3: $0.79                                  3: $0.535

 

Categories
Forex Fundamental Analysis

Analysing The Impact Of ‘Wholesale Trade Sales’ On The Forex Market

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

When it comes to households’ consumption, the retail sales data is usually considered the best leading indicator. Most people rarely have wholesale trade sales in mind. However, the importance of wholesale trade sales data should not be underestimated. Whenever retailers face an increase in demand by consumers, their next stop is to the wholesalers. Furthermore, when retailers anticipate increased demand, they stock up directly from wholesalers. Thus, wholesale trade sales data can be used as a leading indicator of retail sales and the overall demand in the economy.

Understanding  Wholesale Trade Sales

A wholesaler is a business whose core operations strictly involve selling to institutions, governments, or other businesses. A wholesaler rarely deals with the end consumer. Wholesalers usually conduct their businesses from warehouses and do not market their services to households. Their place in the supply chain is to provide retailers and vendors with goods.

As an economic indicator, the wholesale trade sales measures the monetary value of the inventories and sales made by registered wholesalers over a particular period.

How are the Wholesale Trade Sales Measured?

In the US, the Census Bureau conducts a sample survey to determine the national wholesale trade sales and publishes its findings in the ‘Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales And Inventories’ report. This report contains end-of-month inventories, monthly sales, and inventories-to-sales ratios. These aspects of the reports are segmented by the type f business that the wholesale operates. Some of the wholesalers covered by the report include; jobbers or wholesale merchants, exporters and importers, and distributors of industrial goods. The report excludes agents who market products for mining firms, refineries, and manufacturers.

The samples contained in the monthly report are selected through the strata design, which is defined by the type of business sampled and the annual sales for the businesses. In this report, wholesalers of all sizes are included. It is updated quarterly to capture the changes in the sector.

Since the sampling method is used to create the final monthly report, the estimates on the inventories and sales are arrived at by the summation of the collected, weighted data. These estimates are then seasonally adjusted and benchmarked to the annual surveys. Note that the report is susceptible to sampling and non-sampling errors.

Using Wholesale Trade Sales for Analysis

The wholesale trade sales data can be used as a leading indicator of retail sales and consumer spending, estimated to drive up to 70% of the GDP.

Source: St. Louis FRED

The wholesale sector is an integral intermediary in the distribution of goods to the final consumer. Therefore, an increase in sales can be seen as an increase in demand by households. As an economic indicator, this increase could signal that the welfare of households is improving and they have more disposable income hence the increase in demand. The increased disposable income could result from increased employment levels in the economy or higher wages received by households. In either scenario, more money is circulating in the economy. It shows that the economy is expanding.

On the other hand, if the wholesale sales are continually decreasing, it could be considered a sign of depressed demand in the economy. The decrease in demand might be resulting from the lower circulation of money in the economy. An increase in unemployment levels or a decrease in household wages can be attributed to the depressed demand. In this instance, it shows that the economy is contracting.

Suppliers and manufacturers can also use wholesale sales data to determine their level of output to match the demand, hence avoid distorting the equilibrium prices. When wholesale trade sales are increasing, the manufacturers and producers will increase their output to match the level of demand in the economy. When the sales are increasing more than the inventories, producers, and manufacturers will have to scale up their production. Increasing production entails hiring more labor hence a decrease in the unemployment levels. This instance shows that the overall economy is expanding.

Conversely, when inventories are increasing more than the wholesale sales, it indicates that demand is falling. The producers and manufacturers will be forced to scale down their operations to avoid having excess supply than demand, which will distort the market prices. As a result, jobs will be lost in the economy making households worse off. Furthermore, corporate profits will b expected to take a hit.

Impact on Currency

Economic growth and the rate of inflation are the two ways wholesale trade sales data can impact the forex market.

An increase in wholesale sales shows that there is an increase in aggregate demand. In this case, the economy is poised to perform well in the coming months, with discretionary sectors flourishing. The increased demand drives the economic growth towards expansion, which might be accompanied by increased demand-driven inflation. Therefore, in the forex market, a sustained increase in wholesale trade sales can be seen as a potential trigger of contractionary monetary and fiscal policies. These policies are implemented to ensure that economic growth is within sustainable levels and the rate of inflation stays below the target rate. As a result, the currency appreciates relative to others.

Conversely, a continuous decline of the wholesale trade sales will lead to the depreciation of the currency. In the forex market, falling wholesale trade sales show a decline in the aggregate demand, which might result in deflation and, eventually, a stagnating economy. To prevent this from happening, governments and central banks might adopt expansionary fiscal and monetary policies. Although these policies are meant to stimulate the economy, they result in the depreciation of the currency.

Sources of Wholesale Trade Sales Data

The US Census Bureau publishes the monthly ‘Wholesale Trade: Sales And Inventories’ report. St. Louis FRED publishes a comprehensive historical coverage of wholesale trade sales in the US.

Source: St. Louis FRED

How Wholesale Trade Sales Data Release Affects The Forex Price Charts?

The US Census Bureau published the latest monthly ‘Wholesale Trade: Sales And Inventories’ report on October 9, 2020, at 10.00 AM EST. This released can be accessed at Investing.com. As shown by the screengrab below, low volatility is expected upon releasing the wholesale trade sales data.

In August 2020, wholesale trade sales grew by 1.4%. This growth was lower than the 4.8% growth recorded in July 2020 and lower than analysts’ expectation of a 2.0% growth.

Theoretically, this lower-than-expected growth should be negative for the USD.

Let’s see how this release impacted the EUR/USD forex charts.

EUR/USD: Before the Wholesale Trade Sales Data Release on October 9, 2020, 
Just Before 10.00 AM ET

The pair can be seen to be trading in a steady uptrend before the news release. The 20-period MA is steeply rising with candles forming above it.

EUR/USD: After the Wholesale Trade Sales Data Release on October 9, 2020, 
at 10.00 AM ET

After the news release, the EUR/USD pair formed a 15-minute bullish candle, as expected. This candle showed that the USD weakened against the EUR immediately, the worse than expected wholesale trade sales data was released. Subsequently, the pair continued trading in a renewed uptrend.

Bottom Line

Although the wholesale trade sales data is regarded as a low-impact economic indicator, it is significant in the current economy. The data can be used to show the rate of economic recovery after the coronavirus induced recession.

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave Forex Market Analysis

EURJPY Advances from Demand Zone Forecasted

In mid-November, we commented about the technical market context of the EURJPY cross, as its big picture displayed in its weekly chart revealed a technical formation identified as a triangle pattern, which continues progressing since mid-2014.

Moreover, our previous mid-term Elliott wave analysis in its 12-hour chart revealed the advance of an incomplete corrective structure of Minor degree, which currently advances in wave B in green.

In this regard, our main outlook anticipated the progress in its wave ((b)) of Minute degree identified in black. The internal structure also suggested a limited decline toward the demand zone between 122.951 and 122.317. Once reached, the price could have completed the internal wave (b) of Minuette degree labeled in blue. 

Once the cross completed its wave (b), in blue, the cross should begin its wave (c), in blue, with a potential target in the supply zone between 125.285 and 126.123.

Technical Outlook

Currently, the EURJPY cross in its 12-hour chart reveals the bounce from the previous demand zone forecasted, where the price began to advance in its wave (c) in blue.

In the previous chart, we distinguish wave (c)‘s upward progress, which should evolve in a five-wave sequence according to the Elliott Wave theory. The figure also shows the potential target zone between 125.285 and the psychological barrier of 126.

This price landscape brings us three potential scenarios for the current upward movement:

  • First scenario: The EURJPY cross reaches the supply zone between 125.285 and 126.123, completing its wave ((b)) in black, and the price starts to decline in an internal five-wave sequence corresponding to wave ((c)).
  • Second scenario: The cross’ short-term rally fails to surpass the end of wave (a), in blue, and begins to decline. This scenario should be indicative of strong bearish pressure.
  • Third scenario: EURJY price action surpasses the invalidation level located on 127.075. In this case, the cross could be creating a bullish breakout of the long-term triangle, suggesting the continuation of the long-term bullish trend.

Nevertheless, before placing any position on the bearish side or continue on the bullish side, the price action must confirm the end of wave ((b)) in black.

Categories
Forex Course

182. Summary – Market Sentiment

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

If you have gone through the previous courses, you already have a solid knowledge of what market sentiment is. You should also be able to create your COT index indicator to spot market trends and points of potential reversals.

To recap, here are a few things you should have in mind by now.

  • The Commitment of Traders (COT) report is the best gauge of the forex market sentiment in
  • The COT report tracks the trading activities by commercial, non-commercial, and retail traders in the futures market.
  • In the futures market positioning, the commercial and non-commercial traders are usually on opposite sides. i.e., when non-commercial traders are long, commercial traders are short.
  • A market reversal can be anticipated when the spread between commercial and non-commercial traders is the widest.
  • The ‘Chicago Mercantile Exchange’ section of ‘Current Legacy Reports’ in the COT report is best suitable for forex traders.

Let’s now conclude this segment with a few things you MUST always keep in mind.

If you haven’t noticed by now, the COT report is best suited for long term trading. If you are a shorter-term trader, you might be inconvenienced if you solely rely on the COT report for a trading signal. You see, the trends established by the COT report index take time to form. But this shouldn’t discourage you; it’s always good to know how the market is trending.

For traders who opt to use the COT report to generate trading signals, the COT report trading indicator is not foolproof. Like thousands of other indicators in the forex market, it is bound to fail at some point. So, you should conduct thorough backtesting with different timeframes to get a proper feel of how the indicator works. Note that with backtesting, you can be able to spot instances where using the COT report can generate false signals, which will help you avoid such conditions in live trading.

Well, even after you have conducted your thorough backtest, you must know that the forex market trends are not solely driven by market sentiment. Several other factors could lead to reversals in the forex market other than the COT report. In any given month, hundreds of high-impact economic indicators and geopolitical developments can significantly influence trends in the forex market. So, be sure to double-check with your economic calendar to know what else is going on in the economy.

[wp_quiz id=”94030″]
Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

BTC/USD Weekly Chart Analysis + Possible Outcomes

In this weekly BTC/USD analysis, we will be taking a brief look at the most recent events, current chart technical formations, as well as the possible BTC short-term price outcomes.

In this weekly BTC/USD analysis, we will be taking a brief look at the most recent events, current chart technical formations, as well as the possible BTC short-term price outcomes.

In this weekly BTC/USD analysis, we will be taking a brief look at the most recent events, current chart technical formations, as well as the possible BTC short-term price outcomes.

Overview

Bitcoin has spent the past week experiencing a long-awaited pullback, after which it started consolidating. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap has dropped significantly and reached as low as $16,200 before bears reached exhaustion after failing to break its all-time high. While some analysts are calling for an end of the pullback, most of the data shows otherwise. First off, the current controversy around China seizing 1% of all Bitcoin is contributing towards the overall bearish sentiment. Second, a poll done on crypto investors says that the majority of investors believe that BTC will end up correcting as much as 40%. All this, plus the fact that Bitcoin couldn’t push past $17,260 for a couple of days now, is a testament to the short-term bearish sentiment.

On the other hand, people shouldn’t mistake this for a long-term bearish trend. In fact, Bitcoin has never been more bullish long-term.

Technical factors



Bitcoin has continued moving up and performed exactly what we called last week (a push towards the all-time high). Once again, as expected, the push didn’t break the all-time high and has triggered a strong pullback. Bears have reached exhaustion at just over $16,000 and Bitcoin has started consolidating in a range, bound by $17,260 (both horizontal resistance and a 100-period moving average) to the upside and $16,420 to the downside.

The hash ribbons indicator still shows a buy/accumulate signal as it points out to miner capitulation.

Likely Outcomes

Bitcoin’s movement is a bit less obvious this week when compared to the past weeks. The cryptocurrency has a couple of scenarios it can play out as it leaves the current range-bound trading.

1: If Bitcoin breaks the range to the downside (slightly less likely), its most likely target will be $15,500. Due to the short-term bearish sentiment surrounding Bitcoin at the moment, a short trade doesn’t have to be considered as “trading against the large trend” and may actually be a good profit-making opportunity.

In this case, a clear stop-loss should be set a little above $16,420.

2: The second (just slightly more likely) scenario happens if Bitcoin manages to break the $17,260 mark. In this case, the cryptocurrency can reach many targets, but will most likely pass the $17,600 immediate resistance and push higher. The next zone of resistance after that is the $18,250-$18,450.

Trading Bitcoin’s sideways action in a current range is not advised as the price could break out of it at any time.

Categories
Forex Fundamental Analysis

Everything About ‘Business Investment’ Fundamental Forex Driver

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

The economy is intricately woven. Although consumption accounts for about 70% of the GDP, this consumption wouldn’t be met if the supply was cut short. The point here is – all aspects of the economy are intertwined. Therefore, a change in one aspect of the economy is bound to influence the others significantly. In this article, we will see how investments by businesses influence the economy and how it impacts the forex market.

Understanding Business Investment

In the most basic sense, business investment is defined as spending money to acquire assets, start a business, or expand a business with the anticipation of making profits.

As an economic indicator, Business Investment’ represents the change in capital expenditure in the private sector. This expenditure is an inflation-adjusted value.

Source: Ernst & Young UK

In the UK, for example, business investment data is published quarterly. The data in this report is usually segregated depending on the asset type. These categories include; private sector business investment, investment in transport equipment, investment in ICT equipment and machinery, investment in buildings and structure, and investment in intellectual property products. Cultivated biological resources and the manufacture of weapons are included in the calculation. Note that the following are excluded from the calculation of the data in this report: expenditure on residential dwellings, expenditure on land and existing building, and the cost of ownership or transfer of non-produced assets.

In the calculation of the Business Investment’ in the UK, the data from the Annual Business Survey (ABS) is used to establish a benchmark on investment for various industries.

Using Business Investment in Analysis

As we mentioned earlier, business investment is part of the GDP and is also correlated with other economic aspects. The fact business investment data measures the value of the inflation-adjusted value of capital expenditure gives us a dependable ‘real’ figure of the economic activities over a specific period.

The primary effect of business investment will be on the labor market. When business investment increases, it could mean that new business ventures are being set up or the existing ones are being scaled up and expanded. In both instances, it means that more labor will be required. Remember that business investment encompasses investments made in any profit-making venture; it could be in agriculture, in the financial markets, or the informal sector. As a result, increased business investment lowers the rate of unemployment in the economy.

Furthermore, the increased production leads to the growth of output hence higher levels of GDP.

Source: Ernst & Young UK

Conversely, when business investment decreases, it could imply that economic activities are being scaled down. Scaling down operation implies that less labor will be needed. The result is an increase in unemployment levels. More so, scaling down operations implies low economic outputs hence lower levels of GDP.

Business investment goes hand in hand with the level of demand in the economy. Business investment can be said to be responding to levels of demand. Therefore, when business investment increases, it means that there is a higher demand in the economy. By itself, the increased demand means that other aspects of the economy, such as the labor market, are performing well. On the other hand, decreasing business investment means that demand is falling. Demand Reduction is synonymous to a contracting economy.

The business investment data can also be used to analyze the business cycles and, as a result, help in forecasting recessions and recoveries in the economy. Using historical data on business investment, we can establish a pattern. This pattern will show us periods when business investments were slowing down, when they were stagnating, and when they were rapidly increasing. Naturally, periods when business investments are increasing can be regarded as the expansion stage. The recession stage is characterized by a continuous fall in business investments. When business investments have stagnated, this period could be considered the peak of the business cycle.

In predicting recessions and recoveries, let’s use the example of the coronavirus pandemic. Towards the end of the first quarter of 2020, business investments dropped continuously. The continuous drop in business investment was because investors anticipated the demand in the economy to be severely depressed, especially in the consumer discretion industry. While other sectors of the economy saw some increased investments, most sectors experienced a drastic reduction in business investments. The primary goal when making any investment is to earn profits. In this instance, due to the social distancing rules, massive losses were forecasted across the economy. As a result, business investment reduced as investors looked to reduce their exposure to a contracting economy.

At the beginning of the third quarter of 2020, business investment started increasing. This period signified the beginning of economic recovery from the coronavirus-induced recession. The recovery was prompted by a host of expansionary monetary and fiscal policies implemented by governments and central banks. These policies included lowering interest rates and offering economic stimulus packages of trillions of dollars. These policies signified the revival of the economy to the private sector, hence the increase in business investment.

Impact of Business Investment on Currency

In the forex market, the level of business investment can be used to foretell the policy actions of governments and central banks.

In any economy, the private sector is the single largest employer. Therefore, when the business investment is continuously falling, it can be anticipated that the labor market conditions will worsen, and demand in the economy will be severely depressed. This scenario may trigger expansionary fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate the economy and avoid a recession. Such policies make the domestic currency depreciate relative to others.

Conversely, the currency will appreciate when business investment increases. This increase can sign that the economy is performing well with an increase in the money supply. Contractionary monetary and fiscal policies may be implemented to avoid runaway inflation and prevent the economy from overheating. These policies make the domestic currency appreciate.

Sources of Data

In the UK, the Office for National Statistics publishes the quarterly business investment data. Trading Economics has in-depth and historical data on the UK business investment. It also publishes data on global business investment.

How Business Investment Data Release Affects The Forex Price Charts?

The most recent publication of the UK’s business investment data was on September 30, 2020, at 6.00 AM GMT. The release can be accessed from Investing.com. Moderate volatility is to be expected on the GBP when the data is released.

In the second quarter of 2020, business investment in the UK decreased by 26.5%, which was better than the -31.4% expected by analysts.

Let’s see how this release impacted the EUR/GBP pair.

EUR/GBP: Before the Business Investment Data Release on September 30, 2020, 
just before 6.00 AM GMT

The EUR/GBP pair was trading in a weak uptrend before the publication of the UK business investment data. As shown in the above 15-minute chart, candles are forming just above the 20-period MA.

EUR/GBP: After the Business Investment Data Release on September 30, 2020,
at 6.00 AM GMT

The pair formed a 15-minuted bearish ‘Doji’ candle after the news release. Subsequently, the pair adopted a bearish trend.

Bottom Line

While business investment is a significant indicator in the forex market, we may not entirely know the extent of its impact on the GBP. This is because its publication is scheduled at the same time as the GDP – which is a high-impact economic indicator.

Categories
Crypto Videos

Where Did Bitcoin Go? Wrapped Bitcoin Assets are Encouraging the Supply Crisis!

https://youtu.be/JWAyfCSuin0

https://youtu.be/JWAyfCSuin0


Where Did Bitcoin Go? Wrapped Bitcoin Assets are Encouraging the Supply Crisis

In a blog post that came out on Nov 20, Binance reintroduced BTCB to the world. BTCB is a wrapped Bitcoin asset intended to bring liquidity from Bitcoin to Binance Smart Chain’s DeFi ecosystem.

However, hodlers may be cheering the reintroduction to BTCB for a completely different reason: each Bitcoin locked on Binance Smart Chain may contribute to an already very present Bitcoin supply crisis.

First announced in 2019, Binance initially saw wrapped Bitcoin only as a vehicle for traders to obtain the cross-chain asset exposure without leaving the Binance Smart Chain. However, since then, the utility of wrapped Bitcoin has expanded due to the maturation of the DeFi sector.

For instance, a wrapped Bitcoin token on Ethereum, or WBTC for short, has enjoyed massive success ever since its January 2019 launch: it’s currently ranked #14 when sorted by market capitalization on Coinmarketcap and has found significant adoption in various protocols such as Aave and Uniswap, whose contracts rank among the top-10 holders of WBTC.

In their blog, Binance noted that the pattern of adoption of WBTC might be seen with BTCB as well. The wrapped Bitcoin could be used for minting various stablecoins with BSC-native protocols such as QIAN and Venus. It could also be used as collateral for lending protocols such as CREAM, as well as in yield farming and liquidity mining protocols such as Bakery, Beefy, and Pancake.

According to what Binance “Proof of Assets” page, there is currently almost 10,000 Bitcoin on BSC — netting to over $181 million. However, the blog post specified that only 2,000 of them are in circulation.

Other smart contract-enabled chains are intending to compound the growing scarcity. If the success of wrapped and cross-chain Bitcoin-based assets continues to grow, institutions that are looking to hoover the Bitcoin supply may as well be faced with mounting scarcity.

Co-founder of OpenLaw Aaron Wright pointed to such a possible future in his Twitter post, noting that only 0.6% of BTC is now wrapped and being put to Ethereum. 

Categories
Forex Course

181. Accurately Interpreting The COT Report

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

To this point, you know how to establish market extremes using the COT report. Since you can create your COT report trading indicator, let’s learn how you can effectively interpret the COT report. While spotting the overbought and the oversold regions using the COT report seems arbitrary, a more accurate way of interpreting the COT report would be using percentages of the long and short positions.

We have already established that the best way to identify tops and bottoms using the COT report is by following the trend of the non-commercial traders. Just like the formula for creating the COT trading indicator, calculating the percentages of the long and short positions helps filter out the biases of the raw data.

Calculating the percentage of long positions

For a given currency pair, we first identify the number of long and short contracts. We then use this formula to determine the percentage of long contracts:

For the week of July 31, 2020, the EUR had a net long speculative futures position of 180,648 contracts. The percentage of the long contracts was

For the week of September 18, 2020, the EUR had a net long speculative futures position of 178,576 contracts. The percentage of the long contracts was

Now, assume that you are asked to pick the market top using the raw data for both the above dates. You would have selected the week of July 31, 2020, as your market top. The reason is that the raw data showed that the net long positions for speculative traders have 180648 contracts, while for the week ended September 18, 2020, they had 178576 net long contracts. Clearly, with the raw data, July 31, 2020, would have been the market top.

However, by calculating the percentage of the long contracts for both periods, we see that the week ended September 18, 2020, had the highest percentage at 63.1% compared to 52.6% for the week ended July 31, 2020.

Looking at the futures chart for the EUR, we can confirm that, indeed, the week ended September 18, 2020, was the actual market top.

[wp_quiz id=”94024″]
Categories
Forex Videos

Forex Technical Indicators That Will Lose You Money!

https://youtu.be/rhTRtzbRZ2w

https://youtu.be/rhTRtzbRZ2w


Thank you for joining this Forex academy educational video.

In this educational tutorial, we will be looking at one of the main reasons why new traders lose money when they start trading Forex.

A first, let’s take a look at this warning which regulated brokers in the United Kingdom must adhere to on their website:  contracts for difference, also known as cfds, are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage.  72.6% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading cfds.  You should consider whether you understand how cfds work and whether you can afford to take the highest risk of losing your money.

We have hidden the name of this broker, but in fact, 72.6% is one of the lower percentages of retail traders losing money, some are above 80%.

And yet, these high levels of losers remain the same year after year.  So, what is going on?  Unfortunately, most new traders will not go to the lengths of studying how the currency markets work.  They hardly ever bother to learn about fundamental analysis, which is crucial. Most of them will look at a couple of videos on YouTube, where so-called traders claim to have made money on a particular trade setup, which they may have the need to record several times previously in order to come up with one successful winning trade.  And yet most new traders will follow this strategy blindly and where of course, the markets can change direction in an instance, thus leaving them wondering what went wrong and how they lost their money.

The next common mistake made by new traders, who may have trolled through the internet to find some trade setups, is to overload their screens with too many indicators, which can be a hindrance because one ends up focusing on the indicators, which tend to be lagging price action,  and not the most important indicator on the screen itself; price action, which is a leading indicator.

Often these types of traders will look at one of the indicators, which might suggest price is going to go in a certain direction, and then trade according to that one single indicator, which may be in contradiction to the others. Occasionally they will be right, but more often than not they will be wrong, and end up losing money on a trade.

Let’s take a look at that chart again, which is a 1-hour chart of the British pound to US dollar, and by stripping out all of the indicators and drawing in three lines, we can much more easily see that price action is simply gravitating towards three major levels, 1.31 1.32 and 1.33.

INSERT C again

Yet this was impossible to see with all of the indicators on the previous chart.

And now, when we add in three very simple trendlines, we can see a clear direction of this pair, which trades within the trendlines and within the 3 key levels of 1.3100, 1.3200, and 1.3300. 

Unless taught, most new traders would never consider drawing trendlines on their charts and stripping away many of the technical indicators they have become reliant on.

 Another area where new traders fall down is trading over economic data releases because they have not bothered to follow a calendar or are not aware are of the significance of avoiding trading during times of high impact data releases.

Or trading during the end of a particular time zone, where the new time zone traders may have a completely different approach to the markets due to the local sentiment, which can cause price action reversal.

Trading the markets, especially foreign exchange, is extremely complex, just as the warning at the beginning of this video mentioned.  New traders are advised to comprehensively learn about how professional traders go about their daily business.  They must learn how to read price action, which is the best leading indicator of all.  They must also learn about fundamental analysis, how one market will affect the other, such as the stock market’s relationship with the foreign exchange market.

In conclusion, the absolute good news is that all of this information is available on the forex academy website.  It has been put together by extremely competent and experienced traders with a wealth of knowledge and great success behind them.  Be patient; take the time to troll through all of the videos because every one of them will help you to become a more successful trader.

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Nov 27 – Satoshi Nakamoto Emails Discovered; Crypto Market Consolidating

The cryptocurrency sector has started its consolidation period after a bloodbath it experienced yesterday. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap is currently trading for $17,164, representing a decrease of 3.07 % on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum is gaining 0.01% on the day, while XRP managed to gain 2.47%.

The cryptocurrency sector has started its consolidation period after a bloodbath it experienced yesterday. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap is currently trading for $17,164, representing a decrease of 3.07 % on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum is gaining 0.01% on the day, while XRP managed to gain 2.47%.

The cryptocurrency sector has started its consolidation period after a bloodbath it experienced yesterday. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap is currently trading for $17,164, representing a decrease of 3.07 % on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum is gaining 0.01% on the day, while XRP managed to gain 2.47%.

 Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

SushiSwap gained 31.44% in the past 24 hours, making it the most prominent daily gainer in the top100. It is closely followed by Aave’s gain of 15.05% and Nano’s 14.68% gain. On the other hand, Crypto.com Coin lost 10.20%, making it the most prominent daily loser. NEM lost 9.92% while OMG Network lost 9.43%, making them the 2nd and 3rd most prominent daily losers.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s market dominance has stayed at the same place as yesterday, with its value currently staying at 62.2%. This value represents a 0% difference when compared to the value it had yesterday.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The crypto sector capitalization has decreased significantly over the course of the day. Its current value is $511.86 billion, representing a $48.67 billion decrease compared to our previous report.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

_______________________________________________________________________

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

The largest cryptocurrency by market cap has triggered a rally towards the downside after creating a double top, which brought its price as low as $16,215. While some analysts say that the downturn is not over yet, Bitcoin has recovered slightly and is now consolidating just above the $17,000 mark.

While shorting Bitcoin could be a good profit-making opportunity if the downtrend continues, trading against the long-term trend is very risky. However, thinking about hedging against any downturns should be considered.

BTC/USD 1-hour Chart

Bitcoin’s daily and weekly technicals are tilted towards the buy-side and show no signs of neutrality. On the other hand, its monthly technicals show some signs of neutrality, while its 4-hour technicals are completely bearish.

BTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (1-hour Chart):
  • Price is far below its 50-period EMA and at its 21-period EMA
  • Price is at its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (44.33)
  • Volume is average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $17,450                                 1: $17,000

2: $17,850                                 2: $16,800

3: $18500                                   3: $16,350

Ethereum

Ethereum has experienced the same chain of events Bitcoin did in the past day or so. The downtrend ended up bringing Ethereum’s price back to as low as $480 before recovering. However, Ethereum’s ascending channel (yellow dotted) top line has stayed strong and triggered a mini-rally, which then brought the price above the red ascending line as well. Ethereum is now consolidating at around $515.

Ethereum’s current fundamental outlook is very bullish, but (as we said in our previous articles) any sharp move to the downside triggered by Bitcoin will affect Ethereum in a major way as well. This makes trading up hard, as one needs to constantly check Bitcoin’s price as well.

ETH/USD 1-hour Chart

Ethereum’s daily, weekly, and monthly technicals are completely bullish and show no or just slight neutrality signs. On the other hand, its sentiment seen in the 4-hour time-frame’s is completely bearish.

ETH/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical Factors (4-hour Chart):
  • The price is far below its 50-period and at its 21-period EMA
  • Price is at its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (44.53)
  • Volume is average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $600                                     1: $510

2: $630                                     2: $500 

3: $735                                      3: $490

Ripple

The fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap has posted lower highs three times in a row, with its lows testing the $0.625 support level each time the price went down. However, the third time XRP went towards this level, Bitcoin’s push towards the downside triggered XRP bears, which took over the market. The downturn ended at the $0.475 level, which held up quite nicely. XRP is now trading in the middle of a range, bound by $0.475 to the downside and $0.625 to the upside.

Trading XRP may not be optimal at the moment as trading Bitcoin is both potentially more profitable and a bit more straightforward.

XRP/USD 1-hour Chart

XRP’s technicals on all time-frames are bullish, with its daily time-frame being the only one not showing any signs of neutrality. The other time-frames show either slight neutrality or even slight bearishness.

XRP/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • The price is slightly below its 50-period EMA and at its 21-period EMA
  • Price is slightly above its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (48.78)
  • Volume is slightly above average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $0.625                                   1: $0.475

2: $0.79                                     2: $0.443

3: $0.963                                  3: $0.4

 

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave Forex Market Analysis Forex Technical Analysis

AUDNZD: Potential Bounce among Overall Weakness

This analysis discusses AUDUSD’s overall Elliott Structure, the likelihood of a short bounce in the AUDUSD, and its potential continuation.

This analysis discusses AUDUSD’s overall Elliott Structure, the likelihood of a short bounce in the AUDUSD, and its potential continuation.

This analysis discusses AUDUSD’s overall Elliott Structure, the likelihood of a short bounce in the AUDUSD, and its potential continuation.

Technical Overview

In our last AUDNZD technical analysis, the Oceanic cross was moving in an incomplete complex corrective sequence corresponding to wave (c) of Minuette degree labeled in blue, which belongs to wave ((y)) of Minute degree identified in black. 

As illustrated in the following 8-hour chart corresponding to our previous mid-November analysis, we commented on the broadening corrective formation the cross develops, which implies an acceleration of the downward sequence. Also, the move that pierced below the wave (a) in blue suggested further declines in the following trading sessions.

Likewise, we observed the potential bearish reaction areas for the decline until two potential demand zones. The first one located between 1.05186 and 1.04870, and the second one bounded between 1.03511 and 1.02864.

On the other hand, according to the Elliott wave theory, a complex corrective formation as a double-three pattern follows an internal sequence subdivided into 3-3-3, where each “three” corresponds to a single complete corrective wave.

Once completed, the current corrective structural series of wave 2 or B of Minor degree, the AUDNZD cross should give way to the start wave 3 or C, in green.

Technical Outlook

The AUDNZD cross in the next 8-hour chart exposes the price action advancing in its wave iii of Subminuette degree labeled in green, which belongs to the incomplete wave (c) of Minuette degree identified in blue. 

Considering the acceleration present in wave (c), the cross could develop an internal upward corrective movement corresponding to wave iv, in green. This move could find resistance in the adjacent supply zone between 1.0457 and 1.05603, where the cross could resume its downward movement, leading it to complete the wave ((y)) of Minute degree and, in consequence, wave 2 or B, in green. 

Once the current downward sequence finishes, the Oceanic cross will be ready for a new long-term rally corresponding to wave 3 or C, in green, which according to the Elliott wave theory, should be the largest wave of the impulsive sequence.

Finally, the invalidation level for the short-term bearish scenario is found at 1.07029, above the end of wave ii in green.

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, November 27 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – French Events in Focus! 

The economic calendar is a bit muted on the last trading day of the week as investors seem to enjoy the Thanksgiving holiday. However, France is due to report few low impact economic events such as French Consumer Spending with a positive forecast of 3.6% vs. -5.1%, Prelim CPI m/m with a neutral forecast of 0.0%, and Prelim GDP with a neutral growth rate forecast of 18.2% vs. 18.2%. These events are likely to have a muted impact on the market today. 

The economic calendar is a bit muted on the last trading day of the week as investors seem to enjoy the Thanksgiving holiday. However, France is due to report few low impact economic events such as French Consumer Spending with a positive forecast of 3.6% vs. -5.1%, Prelim CPI m/m with a neutral forecast of 0.0%, and Prelim GDP with a neutral growth rate forecast of 18.2% vs. 18.2%. These events are likely to have a muted impact on the market today. 

The economic calendar is a bit muted on the last trading day of the week as investors seem to enjoy the Thanksgiving holiday. However, France is due to report few low impact economic events such as French Consumer Spending with a positive forecast of 3.6% vs. -5.1%, Prelim CPI m/m with a neutral forecast of 0.0%, and Prelim GDP with a neutral growth rate forecast of 18.2% vs. 18.2%. These events are likely to have a muted impact on the market today. 

 

Economic Events to Watch Today  

  

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.19123 after placing a high of 1.19406 and a low of 1.18850. EUR/USD pair hit a fresh 2-months high on Thursday in the early trading session and started to decline and ended up posting losses for the day after the German Consumer Confidence contracted.

At 12:00GMT, the German GfK Consumer Climate in November missed the market’s expectations and dropped to -6.7 against the expected -4.9 and weighed on Euro. At 14:00 GMT, the M3 Money Supply for the year from Eurozone remained flat at 10.5%. Private Loans for the year also came in line with the expectations of 3.1%.

The Eurozone’s largest economy, Germany, appeared to struggle to shake off the coronavirus crisis as consumers’ confidence declined. The investors became cautious about it. That weighed on the single currency Euro and added in the losses of EUR/USD pair.

Furthermore, the European Central bank (ECB) published its November policy meeting minutes in which the policymakers believe that there was the possibility that pandemic might have long-lasting effects. They were cautious that pandemics might take a toll on the demand side, supply sides and reduce the economy’s growth potential.

Minutes revealed that Inflation would remain negative for longer while employment could contract further. Policymakers believed that flexibility from PEPP was essential to its continued success, and they wanted to wait for a further fiscal response before reacting instead. They were of the review that more bond-buying may not have the same impact now. There were no surprises in the minutes as Central Bank has begun to pave the way towards additional easing next December.

The single currency Euro came under pressure after releasing these minutes from the European Central Bank and weighed on EUR/USD pair on Thursday. The U.S. markets were closed due to the Thanksgiving Holiday, and as Friday is not an official holiday, thin trading is expected to extend into the weekend.

Moreover, the currency pair also followed yesterday’s release of the flash US GDP data for the third quarter that remained low at 33.1% in annualized terms and raised concerns over the world’s largest economy. The coronavirus vaccine and the U.S. stimulus talks are considered as the prevailing risks to the Federal Reserve’s outlook going ahead.

The demand for safe-haven greenback continued to slip with the global economy’s improving outlook after the release of vaccines for a deadly virus. The weak U.S. dollar kept the losses in EUR/USD pair limited on Thursday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.1885      1.1934

1.1859      1.1957

1.1836      1.1983

Pivot point: 1.1908

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

On Friday, the direct currency pair EUR/USD is trading with a bullish bias at the 1.1912 level, holding above an immediate resistance becomes a support level of the 1.1905 level. On the higher side, the EUR/USD pair may find resistance at 1.1979, and a bullish breakout of 1.199 level can extend the upward trend until 1.1942. On the 2 hour timeframe, the EUR/USD pair has violated the symmetric triangle pattern that was extending resistance at the 1.19052 level, and now this level is working as a support. Let’s consider taking a buying trade over the 1.1905 level, and above this, the next target stays at 1.1997.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.33550 after a high of 1.33974 and a low of 1.33218. GBP/USD pair struggled to surpass the 1.3400 level and was unable to do so during the early European session, and after that, sellers came in and reversed the pair’s movement to as low as 1.3320 level.

The GBP/USD pair was amongst the worst performers on Thursday out of the G10 currencies, with losses of around 40 pips on the day. After posting gains for four consecutive days, the GBP/USD pair declined on Thursday. Much of the GBP/USD pair’s bullish rally was due to the U.S. dollar’s weakness following the U.S. President-elect Joe Biden’s victory at the start of the month was also escalated by the combination of vaccine optimism and the increasingly dovish tone of the FOMC.

Federal Reserve is expected to squeeze their asset purchase program in December to offer the economy more stimulus because of the rising number of coronavirus cases across the States that has forced the local governments to impose a second lockdown, as the fiscal stimulus from Congress remains indefinable.

Meanwhile, British Pound has also performed significantly better during this month as the hopes surrounding the Brexit deal were higher after the French compromise over the fisheries issue. An agreement over one sticking point also revealed progress made in the Brexit agreement and supported the Sterling that added gains in GBP/USD pair. Furthermore, the vaccine development from Pfizer & BioNtech, Moderna, and AstraZeneca also gave strength to the GBP/USD pair after adding demand for the market’s risk sentiment.

However, on Thursday, the tone behind GBP/USD was changed somewhat after the hopes for a Brexit deal started to fade away. Many reports suggested that the remaining key sticking issues related to Ireland and level playing field were proving to be very hard to reach an agreement. During Thursday’s European session, the Irish Foreign Minister said that Brexit’s outstanding issues were proving to be complicated. E.U. sources also reported that talks between the E.U. and the U.K. were not going well. Simultaneously, the French Foreign Minister put public pressure on the U.K. to adopt a more realistic negotiating stance on Wednesday that faded the optimistic tone around the market and weighed on GBP/USD pair.

During the Thanksgiving Holiday in the U.S. and, in the absence of any macroeconomic data from the U.K., the GBP/USD pair continued following the latest headlines and dropped on Thursday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3318      1.3394

1.3282      1.3434

1.3242      1.3470

Pivot point: 1.3358

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD traded in line with our previous forecast to hit the support level of 1.333, which is extended by an upward channel. On the higher side, Cable may find resistance at 1.3400 level that’s extended by the double top pattern on the two-hour timeframe. Simultaneously, the bullish crossover of the 1.3400 level is likely to open additional room for buying until the 1.3446 level. On the 4 hour timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has formed a bullish channel that supports the pair at the 1.333 area, and violation of this level on the lower side can drive a sharp selling trend until the 1.3270 mark. The RSI and MACD are suggesting a selling trend in sterling. However, I will prefer to open a buying trade over the 1.3330 area and selling trade below the same level today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 104.233 after placing a high of 104.479 and a low of 104.214. On Thursday, the U.S. dollar was down in early trading session subdued by weak U.S. economic data. The optimism surrounding the coronavirus vaccines prompted investors to seek out riskier assets instead of safe-haven. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) was down on Thursday against the basket of six major currencies by 0.3% at 91.97 level, the lowest level in more than two months as the volume was limited due to the holiday in the U.S. for Thanksgiving.

In late Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its last monetary policy meeting, and they showed that Fed members debated on a range of options on bond purchases to support the recovery, including pivoting to purchases of longer-term securities that could put more pressure on the dollar by keeping longer-term yield unattractively low. These comments from the Fed weighed on the U.S. dollar and added pressure on the USD/JPY pair on Thursday.

Meanwhile, the number of global coronavirus cases reached above 60 million on Thursday, out of which 12.7 million were from the U.S., according to Johns Hopkins University. Many states in the U.S. started to impose restrictive measures to curb the increasing numbers of coronavirus cases that led to more job losses, weighed on the U.S. dollar, and kept the USD/JPY pair under pressure.

Positive data from 3 vaccine candidates and their efficacies, along with a smoother transition to Joe Biden administration in the U.S., added pressure on the greenback and forced investors to move towards riskier currencies. Reports also suggested that the Fed’s monetary easing was on its way that continued weighing on the greenback and added pressure on the USD/JPY pair. Apart from this, a mixed performance in the European equity markets provided a modest lift to the safe-haven Japanese yen that ultimately contributed to the USD/JPY pair’s fall on Thursday.

Due to the absence of any macroeconomic data on the day and the thin liquidity conditions due to the Thanksgiving Holiday, the pair USD/JPY continued following the last day’s economic data of Unemployment claims that showed a negative labor market report and added pressure on the pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

104.27      104.63

104.09      104.79

103.92      104.98

Pivot point: 104.44

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY pair’s recent price action has violated the choppy trading range of 104.700 – 104.056. On the lower side, the USD/JPY pair can drop further until the next support level of 103.667 level, especially after the breakout of the 104.150 support level. On the higher side, a bullish breakout of 104.700 resistance can extend the buying trend until the next resistance area of 104.700 and 105.063 level. On the lower side, the support continues to hold around the 103.667 level. The MACD suggests selling bias in the USD/JPY pair; thus, we should consider selling trade below 104.150 and buying above the same. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Basic Strategies

Top 3 Terrific Ways To Trade Price Channels Like A Pro

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

A price channel is a state of the market that slopes up or down bounded by a trendline above and below the asset’s price. The upper trend line acts as a resistance to the price, while the lower trend line acts as support. The price channel helps traders maintain the focus on the price alone, unlike the other trading tools, which are plotted directly over the price chart. In an uptrend, as long as the price advances and moves within the channel, the underlying asset trend is considered bullish. The break below the channel line is a sign of the trend being reversed. Two main components of the price channel are the Main Trend Line & the Channel Line.

Main Trend Line – It takes a minimum of two to three points on the price chart to draw the trend line. The line sets the tone for the price slop as well as the trend. To draw a bearish trend line, we need at least three reaction points at the highs. To draw a bullish trend line, we also need two to three reaction lows on the price chart.

Channel Line – After drawing the main trend line, we draw the channel line parallel to the main trend line. For drawing the channel line, we also need two to three reaction highs and reaction lows in accordance with the trend. This channel line also acts as a support in an uptrend and resistance in a downtrend.

Trading Strategies To Trade The Price Channel

Trends + Channel

Channels are perfect to trade the pullback markets. It is advisable to look for the price channel that is sloping at a healthy angle. Don’t try to trade the steep or flat channels as they won’t provide good trading opportunities.

Firstly find a trending market and mark at least two reactions of highs and lows. For taking buy entries, wait for the price to touch the channel line and for selling trades, wait for the prices to touch the main trend line. Remember not to trade both buy and sell opportunities in an up-trending market. This approach is used by amateur traders who fail most of the time as we are going against the flow.

The price chart below indicates the price channel on the AUD/NZD forex pair.

The price gave the first selling opportunity on the 16th of May and the second trade was around 19th May. These trades printed a brand new lower low, and we closed our trades when the prices broke the channel.

Reversals + Channels 

In this strategy, we need two timeframes to find accurate trading opportunities. Look for an uptrend on the higher timeframe and then see the same chart on a lower timeframe. On the lower timeframe, let the price to pull back enough. When the prices gave enough pullback, draw the price channel on that pullback. If the prices break below the channel line (in an uptrend) and get knocked back immediately, it is a sign for us to go long. When this happens, we can expect a brand new higher high.

As you can see in the image below, the pair was in an overall downtrend. During the pullback phase, price action tries to break the price channel but get knocked back immediately. It means that some buyers are trying to take the price higher, but the aggressive sellers are grabbing the opportunity to fill a few more orders. After the fake-out, prices held inside the price channel for a bit, and after a few hours, we witnessed a brand new lower low.

Breakouts + Channel

Breakout trading is the most common yet effective approach to take high probability trades. Firstly, find an up-trending market and draw a price channel. Wait for the price to approach any significant level and break below the price channel to take the trade. When the price action goes below the channel line, it is a sign for us to go short. Similarly, in a downtrend, draw the price channel and let the price approach any significant level to take the breakout trade. After the breakout, go long and place the stops just below your entry. If the price holds after the breakout, it is a great sign to take the trade.

The image below represents a sell trade in the GBP/AUD Forex pair. As you can see, the prices were in an uptrend, and when the sellers broke below the price channel, we took a sell trade. We choose a smaller stop-loss order as the channel line also acts as dynamic support to the prices. For booking profits, a higher timeframe support area was a perfect place.

Conclusion

Trading Channels are effective as they provide numerous trading opportunities when the market is moving in that state. You can use all the mentioned ways stated above to trade a channel or use the method that best works for you. When trading, the channel always trade with the trend. Do not over trade whatsoever. If you get used to it, sooner or later, you will blow your trading account. Don’t do this. Instead, always follow the trend. The trend is your friend. Let the market pullback to the channel line to trade with the trend. Another approach is to wait for the prices to break the channel to trade the reversals. These simple approaches are healthier ways to grow your trading account while trading channels. All the best!

Categories
Forex Daily Topic Forex Educational Library

Leverage and Risk

This is a small presentation about how, at Forex.Academy, you could discover the secrets behind risk control; and how position size could affect your profits and your probability of ruin.

This is a small presentation about how, at Forex.Academy, you could discover the secrets behind risk control; and how position size could affect your profits and your probability of ruin.

This is a small presentation about how, at Forex Academy, you could discover the secrets behind risk control; and how position size could affect your profits and your probability of ruin.

 

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave Forex Market Analysis

Beware of these Supply and Demand Zones on the GBPJPY

The short-term overview for the GBPJPY pair reveals the sideways movement in a trading range bounded by its 90-day high and low range between levels of 133.040 and 142.714. The cross recently developed a rally that found resistance in the bullish sentiment zone resistance located on 140.296, where the GBPJPY presents a set of scenarios.

The short-term overview for the GBPJPY pair reveals the sideways movement in a trading range bounded by its 90-day high and low range between levels of 133.040 and 142.714. The cross recently developed a rally that found resistance in the bullish sentiment zone resistance located on 140.296, where the GBPJPY presents a set of scenarios.

The short-term overview for the GBPJPY pair reveals the sideways movement in a trading range bounded by its 90-day high and low range between levels of 133.040 and 142.714. The cross recently developed a rally that found resistance in the bullish sentiment zone resistance located on 140.296, where the GBPJPY presents a set of scenarios.

Technical Overview

The following 12-hour chart illustrates the short-term market participants’ sentiment bounded by the 90-day high and low range. The figure presents a bullish bias that remains active since the GBPJPY found fresh buyers on 133.040.

After the cross found resistance at 140.296, the price action retraced it until a neutral zone located on 137.877, forming an intraday sideways channel that suggests a pause in the short-term bullish cycle.

On the other hand, the following figure unveils that the retail traders’ market sentiment is positioned on the bearish side. As the chart shows, 75% of retail traders hold their positioning on the sell-side, which is contrarian.

(source: myfxbook.com)

In this context, we can see that numerous retail traders are expecting a downward movement, while the price action remains moving in the bullish sentiment without exposing a reversal pattern. Thus, it is plausible the GBPJPY pair could develop a new upward movement.

Short-term Technical Outlook

The short-term Elliott Wave view shows a movement inside an incomplete corrective wave of Minor degree, labeled in green, which could be in its wave C. 

The following chart shows the price action developing an upward corrective rally, which could correspond to a wave (ii) or (b) of Minute degree identified in green. In this context, the following movement should correspond to wave (iii) or (c).

Under this scenario, if the supply zone between 139.831 and 140.315 confirms the end of the current second segment, in blue, GBPJPY should begin a decline to the first demand zone between 137.594 and 137.196. Moreover, the market action could extend its down move toward the next demand zone between 134.997 and 134.404.

An alternative scenario considers the possibility of the price extending its advance beyond the 140.315 level. In this case, the GBPJPY could find fresh sellers in the next supply zone between 141.759 and 142.714. The pair could complete its wave B in green and start to weaken, developing the wave C subdivided into a five-wave sequence with a potential target in the demand zones identified in green.

Finally, the invalidation level of the bearish scenario is set above the origin of wave A in green at 142.714

Categories
Forex Fundamental Analysis

Impact of ‘Commodity Prices’  On The Forex Market

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

Thanks to international trade, some countries prosper disproportionately than others. The disproportionality in the balance of payments is mostly owed to the type of exports a country produces. Countries that are net exporters of precious commodities tend to have a better balance of payment than net importers. For this reason, the fluctuation of these commodities tends significantly affect their economy.

Understanding Commodity Prices 

A commodity can be defined as any physical product that can be traded in any form of exchange. With commodities, there is little differentiation, if any, regardless of where they originate. For example, we can say that an ounce of gold from South Africa is the same as an ounce of gold from Australia.

Naturally, different parts of the world are endowed with different types of natural resources. Furthermore, since commodities are inherently used to produce other goods and services, their value entirely depends on their rarity and demand. Take Copper and Wheat, for example. Both are commodities. But you cannot compare the value of a kilo of copper and a kilo of wheat. Copper is a rare and limited precious commodity, while wheat is readily cultivated. Therefore, a country that is a net exporter of copper will have a better balance of payment than a country that is a net exporter of wheat.

Furthermore, let’s take an example of country A with the largest deposit of commodity X in the world. In this case, country A is basically a monopoly; if it wanted to control the commodity prices, it would reduce the production of the commodity. By doing so, the demand for commodity X would exceed the supply, which means that country A will receive higher prices. Now, imagine a scenario where vast deposits of commodity X are discovered in country B. It now means that the supply of commodity X in the international market will increase, and as a result, the price of commodity X will decrease.

For countries whose economies heavily dependent on commodity exports, the fluctuation of commodity prices heavily impacts the earnings. Furthermore, the changes in the demand for these commodities also affect the GDP of these countries. Note that the price of these commodities also varies depending on their quality. For commodities which are used for trading in the future market, the minimum quality accepted is called the basis grade,

Using Commodity Prices  in Analysis

The commodity prices usually tend to impact the economies which heavily rely on the export of commodities to fund public expenditures.

An increase in commodity prices means that the producing country will receive more income. In turn, this translates to increased wages for workers involved in the production or mining of the commodity. Since households are well compensated, their welfare will significantly increase. Note that for countries heavily dependent on commodity exports, these commodities’ mining or production usually employs a majority in the labor market. Therefore, an increase in wages will significantly impact the changes in the aggregate demand in the economy for consumer goods and services.

This increase in demand tends to lead to an increase in the production of consumer goods. As a result, there will be an expansion of the consumer industry. More so, the expansion of these sectors leads to more job creation hence lowering unemployment levels. Other sectors of the economy will also benefit from this increase in wages. The real estate sector will also flourish since the increase in wages means that households can now afford to fund the purchase of homes or qualify for mortgages.

Conversely, a decline in the prices of commodities means that the labor involved will be compensated lesser. The resultant effect will be a contraction in demand for consumer goods and services since households will be forced to prioritize expenditure on essential products. Consequently, the consumer discretion industry will contract as producers scale down operations to match the decreased demand. As a result, some jobs in these sectors will be lost, contributing to increased unemployment. Therefore, we can see there is a direct link between the changes in commodity prices to the growth of the domestic economy and changes in the domestic employment levels.

Let’s look at another scenario. Say the economy of country A is intertwined with that of country C – country A imports multiple commodities from country C. Since country A’s economy heavily relies on commodities, the prices of these commodities increase, which means that the balance of payment of country A improves and that its citizens are well off. Thus, country A can afford to import more products from country C. therefore, country C’s economy will prosper. Increased imports from A means that production in C will increase, expand its economy, and improve labor market conditions.

Conversely, when commodity prices fall, it means that economic conditions in country A might deteriorate. Consequently, imports from country C will decrease, leading to either C’s economy to contract or a slowdown in its growth. This is usually the case with Australia and New Zealand, whose economies are close to each other.

Source: St. Louis FRED

Therefore, commodity prices do not just affect the economy of countries whose exports are majorly comprised of commodities.

Impact on Currency

The impact of the changes in the commodity price in the forex market is pretty straightforward.

When a country exports a commodity to the international market, it is paid in its currency. Therefore, when the commodity prices increase, it means that the domestic currency will be in high demand. Importers of the commodity will have to convert more of their currencies into the domestic currency. As a result, the value of the domestic currency will appreciate relative to other currencies.

On the other hand, a fall in the commodity means fewer amounts of the domestic currency will be required to purchase the exports. Consequently, the domestic currency will marginally depreciate relative to others.

Sources of Data

In Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia publishes the Index of Commodity Prices report monthly.

Source: RBA

Trading Economics has a comprehensive list of commodity prices in both the spot and futures market.

How Commodity Prices Data Release Affects The Forex Price Charts?

The latest publication of the Index of Commodity Prices report by the RBA was on October 1, 2020, at 6.30 AM GMT and can be accessed at Invetsing.com. The release of the commodity prices is expected to have a low impact on the AUD.

In September 2020, the YoY the Australian commodity index decreased by 5.8% compared to a 10.2% decline in the YoY index for August 2020.

Let’s see if this release had an impact on the AUD.

GBP/AUD: Before Commodity Price Release on October 1, 2020, 
just before 6.30 AM GMT

The GBP/AUD pair was trading in a neutral pattern before the publication of the Australian commodity index. The 20-period MA was flattened with candles forming just around it.

GBP/AUD: After Commodity Price Release on October 1, 2020, at 6.30 AM GMT

The pair formed a 5-minute bullish candle when the commodity prices were released. Subsequently, the 20-period MA steadily rose with candles forming above it, showing that the AUD weakened against the GBP.

Bottom Line

In Australia, commodity exports account for about 50% of the export income. While this report plays a vital role in forecasting the Australian economy, it is a low-impact economic indicator in the forex market.

Categories
Forex Course Forex Daily Topic

180. Picking Accurate Tops & Bottoms Using the COT Report

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

Our previous lesson covered how you can use the Commitment of Traders report to trade in the forex market. In this lesson, we will learn how you can use the COT report to identify the tops and bottoms, i.e., the levels where a currency is overbought or oversold.

Any forex trader would know that the best timing for a reversal trade is when the market is at extreme levels. The COT report helps us understand the trades’ volume and how the different types of traders are positioned. In the previous lesson, we learned that non-commercial traders’ positioning could be used to determine the market trend. On the other hand, commercial traders accumulate their trades around extreme levels where they believe a market reversal could occur. Thus, the positioning of hedgers can be used to determine the market tops and bottoms.

Now, let’s see how you can identify these extreme levels in forex using the COT report.

How to identify Tops (Overbought Levels) Using the COT Report

It is worth noting that when the markets are rising, the non-commercial traders are buying, i.e., they are bullish. Conversely, the commercial traders (hedgers) are bearish when the markets are rising, meaning they are actively shorting the futures contracts in a bullish market. Therefore, in a bullish market, when speculators continually go long as the hedgers keep shorting, a market top will form.

However, it is almost impossible to predetermine a market top. The best way to spot a market top is to notice a reversal beginning to occur in the market when the spread between the commercial traders and non-commercial traders has widened.

The screengrab above shows a market top formed when the short positions by commercial traders were at maximum. Also, notice that the spread between the commercial and non-commercial traders was wider.

How to identify Bottoms (Oversold Levels) Using the COT Report

When the market prices are falling, non-commercial traders are bearish while the commercial traders are bullish. Therefore, a bearish market will reach the bottom when the non-commercial traders keep selling, and the commercial traders maximize their futures bullish positions.

The best way to spot a market bottom is to notice a bear market trend reversing while the spread between the commercial traders and non-commercial traders has widened.

The screengrab above shows a market bottom forming when the long futures position by the commercial traders was at the maximum. Also, note that the spread between the commercial and non-commercial traders was widest at this point.

[wp_quiz id=”89702″]
Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Nov 26 – Bitcoin’s “Flash Crash” Pulls Price Below $18,000; Blood on the Crypto Streets

The cryptocurrency sector has ended the day in the red as Bitcoin failed to stay above $19,000 and even falling below $18,000 as bears took control of the market. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap is currently trading for $17,000, representing a decrease of 10.67%% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum is losing 15.34% on the day, while XRP lost 16.88%.

The cryptocurrency sector has ended the day in the red as Bitcoin failed to stay above $19,000 and even falling below $18,000 as bears took control of the market. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap is currently trading for $17,000, representing a decrease of 10.67%% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum is losing 15.34% on the day, while XRP lost 16.88%.

The cryptocurrency sector has ended the day in the red as Bitcoin failed to stay above $19,000 and even falling below $18,000 as bears took control of the market. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap is currently trading for $17,000, representing a decrease of 10.67%% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum is losing 15.34% on the day, while XRP lost 16.88%.

 Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

Zilliqa 23.75% in the past 24 hours, making it the most prominent daily gainer in the top100. It is closely followed by Horizen’s gain of 18.71% and Elrond’s 11.54% gain. On the other hand, Verge lost 24.86%, making it the most prominent daily loser. Kusama lost 15.78% while Reserve Rights lost 13.81%, making them the 2nd and 3rd most prominent daily losers.

 

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s market dominance has increased over the day, with its value currently staying at 62.2%. This value represents a 0.6% difference to the upside compared to the value it had yesterday.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The crypto sector capitalization has decreased over the course of the day. Its current value is $560.17 billion, representing an $11.36 billion decrease compared to our previous report.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

_______________________________________________________________________

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

The largest cryptocurrency by market cap has created a double top, which triggered a pullback from the recent highs. Not only has the price retraced to the sub-$19,000 level, but it has also broken the $18,500 support level. The price will most likely end up below the $17,850 level, as the market is calling for a pullback for quite some time. However, if the market recovers, we can expect the price to end up between $17,850 and $18,500.

While shorting Bitcoin might be a good profit-making opportunity at the moment, trading against the long-term trend is extremely risky. However, thinking about hedging versus any downturns might be a good option at the moment.

BTC/USD 1-hour Chart

Bitcoin’s 4-hour, daily, and weekly technicals are heavily tilted towards the buy-side and show no signs of neutrality or bearishness. On the other hand, its monthly technicals are showing some signs of neutrality.

BTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (1-hour Chart):
  • Price is far below its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
  • Price slightly below its lower Bollinger band
  • RSI is extremely oversold (23.98)
  • Volume is average (one candle spike)
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $18500                                  1: $17,850

2: $19000                                  2: $17,450

3: $19500                                   3: $17,000

Ethereum

While Ethereum did follow Bitcoin to the downside, both in price direction and severity of the move, the situation doesn’t look that bad. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap has started its pullback after failing to stay above $600, culminating in a full-blown dump from $570 to $505. However, the ascending (red) line held up, and ETH reclaimed previous levels and is currently consolidating around $530.

Ethereum’s current outlook is very bullish, but any sharp move to the downside coming from Bitcoin will affect it in a major way. Traders should pay close attention to Bitcoin’s moves if they want to trade Ether.

ETH/USD 1-hour Chart

Ethereum’s technicals are a bit confusing, as its daily and monthly overviews are completely bullish, while its weekly overview shows slight signs of neutrality. Its 4-hour technicals, however, are pointing towards the sell-side.

ETH/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical Factors (4-hour Chart):
  • The price is below both its 50-period and its 21-period EMA
  • Price is below its bottom Bollinger band
  • RSI is extremely oversold (19.47)
  • Volume is above average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $600                                     1: $510

2: $630                                     2: $500 

3: $735                                      3: $490

Ripple

The fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap has performed similarly to the aforementioned two cryptocurrencies. XRP has posted lower highs three times in a row while testing the $0.625 support level each time. However, the last time XRP went towards this level, bears took over and pushed the price further down. XRP bears have seemingly reached exhaustion, and the cryptocurrency is now consolidating around the $0.575 level.

Trading XRP is not advised as trading Bitcoin is (at the moment) both potentially more profitable and more straightforward.

XRP/USD 1-hour Chart

XRP’s technicals on all time-frames are tilted towards the buy-side, with its daily overview being the most bullish time-frame. Its other time-frames show signs of neutrality or even slight bearishness.

XRP/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • The price is far below both its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
  • Price is slightly below its bottom Bollinger band
  • RSI is close to being oversold (31.85)
  • Volume is above average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $0.625                                   1: $0.475

2: $0.79                                     2: $0.443

3: $0.963                                  3: $0.4

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, November 26 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Thanksgiving Day! 

The economic calendar is a bit muted amid the Thanksgiving holiday. Most Forex brokers remain open for every holiday except Christmas and New Year’s Day. Stock markets and banks have slightly different holiday schedules. In addition to this, the eyes will remain on ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts during the European session. It’s a detailed record of the ECB Governing Board’s most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates. 

The economic calendar is a bit muted amid the Thanksgiving holiday. Most Forex brokers remain open for every holiday except Christmas and New Year’s Day. Stock markets and banks have slightly different holiday schedules. In addition to this, the eyes will remain on ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts during the European session. It’s a detailed record of the ECB Governing Board’s most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates. 

The economic calendar is a bit muted amid the Thanksgiving holiday. Most Forex brokers remain open for every holiday except Christmas and New Year’s Day. Stock markets and banks have slightly different holiday schedules. In addition to this, the eyes will remain on ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts during the European session. It’s a detailed record of the ECB Governing Board’s most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates. 

Economic Events to Watch Today  

  

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair closed at 1.19136 after placing a high of 1.18959 and a low of 1.18334. EUR/USD pair extended its upward momentum on Wednesday amid the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness and the rising optimism around the market. 

The risk sentiment was triggered by the latest vaccine development that suggested a quick economic recovery and pushed riskier assets like EUR/USD pair on the higher levels. The currency pair EUR/USD rose and placed fresh highs on Wednesday after reaching its highest level since mid-August.

The U.S. dollar was weak on Wednesday after the release of mixed and depressing data from the U.S. The Unemployment claims rose unexpectedly and weighed on the U.S. dollar, and supported the upward momentum in EUR/USD pair.

On the data front, there was no data from the Europe side on Wednesday, while from the U.S., at 18:30 GMT, the Prelim Gross Domestic Product for the third quarter came in line with the anticipations of 33.1%. The Unemployment Claims from last week rose to 778K against the projected 732K and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The Core Durable Goods Orders for October rose to 1.3% against the estimated 0.5% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Durable Goods Orders also rose to 1.3% from the projected 1.0% and helped the U.S. dollar. The Goods Trade Balance from the U.S. for October came in as forecasted -80.3B. The Prelim Wholesale Inventories for October rose to 0.9% against the estimated 0.4% and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added strength to EUR/USD pair.

At 18:36 GMT, the Prelim GDP Price Index for the third quarter also remained as expected at 3.6%. At 20:00 GMT, the Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment for November also came in line with the projections of 76.9. The Core PCE Price Index for October remained flat with the predictions of 0.0%. The New Home Sales for October surged to 999K against the anticipated 972K and supported the U.S. dollar. The Personal Income declined to -0.7% from the projected 0.0% and weighed on the U.S. dollar added in the gains of EUR/USD pair. The Personal Spending raised to 0.5% from the forecasted 0.4% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Revised UoM Inflation Expectations also came in line as expected at 2.8%.

On Wednesday, the European Central Bank released its review on the economy’s financial stability. The central bank warned that European banks would not see profits return to the pre-pandemic level before 2022. According to ECB, the Eurozone leaders have struggled to make sizeable profits over the last decade after the 2008 global financial crisis with more robust regulatory scrutiny and low-interest rates. While the recent coronavirus crisis has worsened bottom lines further, and that will continue to affect the financial sector in the coming months.

In simple words, the banks’ profitability will remain weak, which could hurt their ability to lend money to businesses and individuals that would also reflect the economy’s weak health. These comments from ECB failed to break the upward momentum of the EUR/USD pair on Wednesday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.1888     1.1936

1.1861     1.1957

1.1841     1.1984

Pivot point: 1.1909

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is trading with a bullish bias at the 1.1936 level, holding below an immediate resistance level of 1.1979. On the higher side, the EUR/USD pair may find resistance at 1.1979, and a bullish breakout of 1.199 level can extend the upward trend until 1.1942. On the 2 hour timeframe, the EUR/USD pair has violated the symmetric triangle pattern that was extending resistance at the 1.19052 level, and now this level is working as a support. Let’s consider taking a buying trade over the 1.1905 level, and above this, the next target stays at 1.1997.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair closed at 1.33864 after a high of 1.33935 and a low of 1.33037. GBP/USD pair extended its gains for the 4th consecutive session on Wednesday amid the U.S. dollar weakness and the rising global market confidence due to vaccine progress. Meanwhile, the currency pair GBP/USD also remained under pressure on Wednesday after the Brexit uncertainty returned to the market.

The GBP/USD pair has been trading with an upside bias since the start of this week due to rising optimism in the market regarding the latest vaccine developments. Pfizer and BioNtech first reported its vaccine’s efficacy rate, followed by Moderna and AstraZeneca within two weeks. The back to back vaccine progress and the fact that Pfizer and BioNtech have already filed for emergency use authorization of their vaccine and others being in line for it has further supported the market’s risk sentiment.

The risk perceived GBP/USD pair gained traction and saw a jump in demand on expectations that the U.K. and the E.U. were getting closer to reaching a deal on Brexit. However, on Wednesday, the lack of recent progress raised uncertainty in the market and weighed on British Pound.

The French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian recently commented that British proposals in the latest negotiations were insufficient. He also accused the U.K. of slowing talks over secondary subjects and playing with the calendar. He urged that securing a deal over fisheries will not be the adjustment variable in the talks.

Meanwhile, a BBC reporter Katya Adler also tweeted that E.U. sources have said that there were doubts about the E.U. Brexit negotiator Michelle Barnier going to London to negotiate once he leaves quarantine on Friday and that the talks were not going well. These updates were also confirmed by the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, who said on Wednesday morning that she could not say if there will be a deal and the next few days would be decisive.

All this Brexit news dented the expectations that the two sides will eventually reach a deal on key sticking points. However, market participants decided not to react to such news for Wednesday and continued following the market’s optimism.

On the data front, at 18:30 GMT, the Prelim Gross Domestic Product for the third quarter remained flat with the expectations of 33.1%. The Unemployment Claims from last week surged to 778K against the anticipated 732K and weighed on the U.S. dollar. 

The Core Durable Goods Orders for October raised to 1.3% against the forecasted 0.5% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Durable Goods Orders increased to 1.3% from the estimated 1.0% and helped the U.S. dollar. The Goods Trade Balance from the U.S. for October remained flat at -80.3B. The Prelim Wholesale Inventories for October raised to 0.9% against the projected 0.4% and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added strength to GBP/USD pair.

At 18:36 GMT, the Prelim GDP Price Index for the third quarter also came in line with the projections of 3.6%. At 20:00 GMT, the Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment for November also remained flat at 76.9. The Core PCE Price Index for October stayed the same at 0.0%. The New Home Sales for October raised to 999K against the estimated 972K and supported the U.S. dollar. The Personal Income fell to -0.7% from the forecasted 0.0% and weighed on the U.S. dollar added in the GBP/USD pair’s gains. The Personal Spending rose to 0.5% from the projected 0.4% and supported the U.S. dollar. Revised UoM Inflation Expectations also remained flat at 2.8%.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3325     1.3416

1.3269     1.3451

1.3235     1.3507

Pivot Point: 1.3360

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading bullish around 1.3396 level, facing resistance at 1.3400 level. The resistance level is extended by the double top pattern at 1.3400 level, and a bullish crossover of 1.3400 level is likely to open further room for buying until 1.3446 level. On the 4 hour timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has formed a bullish channel that supports the pair at the 1.333 area. The RSI and MACD are suggesting a buying trend in sterling. However, I will prefer to open a buying trade over the 1.3396 area today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair closed at 104.456 after a high of 104.596 and a low of 104.253. The USD/JPY pair stayed relatively low, around 104.5 level for the majority of the day, and remained more down during the American trading hours due to mixed macroeconomic data releases from the U.S.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) edged lower in the late American session, remained at the 91.97 level, and kept the U.S. dollar depressed. On the data front, at 18:30 GMT, the Prelim Gross Domestic Product for the third quarter remained flat at 33.1%. The Unemployment Claims from last week rose to 778K against the expected 732K and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The Core Durable Goods Orders for October rose to 1.3% against the expected 0.5% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Durable Goods Orders surged to 1.3% from the anticipated 1.0% and helped the U.S. dollar. 

The Goods Trade Balance from the U.S. for October remained flat with the expectations of -80.3B. The Prelim Wholesale Inventories for October rose to 0.9% against the estimated 0.4% and weighed on the U.S. dollar.

At 18:36 GMT, the Prelim GDP Price Index for the third quarter remained flat at 3.6%. At 20:00 GMT, the Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment for November stayed at 76.9. The Core PCE Price Index for October came in line with the expectations of 0.0%. The New Home Sales for October surged to 999K against the projected 972K and supported the U.S. dollar. The Personal Income dropped to -0.7% from the expected 0.0% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The Personal Spending surged to 0.5% from the forecasted 0.4% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Revised UoM Inflation Expectations also came in line with the anticipations of 2.8%.

The rising unemployment claims and declined personal income weighed on the local currency while the durable goods orders and new home sales, along with the personal spending, supported the U.S. dollar on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, from the Japanese side, the year’s SPPI declined to -0.6% from the forecasted -0.5% and weighed on the Japanese Yen. At 09:59 GMT, the BoJ Core CPI for the year raised to 0.0% from the forecasted -0.1% and supported the Japanese Yen that added weight on the USD/JPY pair on Wednesday.

The currency pair USD/JPY remained bullish throughout the day despite the U.S.’s mixed economic data on the back of rising optimism in the market. The global market sentiment remained confident due to the rising number of vaccine candidates reporting progress. The race to file for emergency use authorization of vaccine started with Pfizer and BioNtech has extended to AstraZeneca and Moderna that has helped raised hopes for a pre-pandemic economic environment and supported the risk sentiment.

The rising risk sentiment added weight on the safe-Haven Japanese Yen and supported the USD/JPY pair’s upward momentum on Wednesday. Another factor involved in the USD/JPY pair’s upward movement was the beginning of the transition of the presidency of President-elect Joe Biden.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

104.27     104.63

104.09     104.79

103.92     104.98

Pivot point: 104.44

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY continues to trade in a fresh choppy range of 104.700 – 104.056 level. On the higher side, a bullish breakout of 104.700 resistance can extend the buying trend until the next resistance area of 104.700 and 105.063 level. On the lower side, the support continues to hold around 104.056 and 103.667 level. The MACD suggests an overbought situation of the USD/JPY pair; thus, we should look for selling trade below 104.598 and buying above the same. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Videos

Forex – Overbought & Oversold – Easy Market Reversal Strategy!

https://youtu.be/LdKrPWG-B44

https://youtu.be/LdKrPWG-B44


Overbought and oversold, how can you tell when the market will reverse? 

 

Thank you for joining this forex academy educational video.

In this session, we will be looking at when a currency pair is overbought or oversold and how to take advantage of this.

To try and gauge the best way wait to take advantage of when a market is overbought or oversold, we must first take a look at the biggest by volume currency pair traded in the forex market: the Euro against the US dollar, a so-called major currency pair. And this is a one-hour chart of recent price action.

To establish when a pair is oversold or overbought, there are a multitude of tools available. We will focus on one oscillator and price patterns. 

First of all, we have the stochastic oscillator.  This tool consists of two moving averages that crossover at certain points, and when they move up and cross the 80-line, an asset is said to be overbought, and when the moving averages move lower and under than the 20-line, it is said to be oversold.

One of the problems with the stochastic oscillator, as we can see here, if we draw a magenta coloured vertical line, the market is actually oversold at the halfway point between the peak and the trough of this move.  The pair continues to move lower after it is oversold. This is common with the stochastic.

…in this example, it has moved lower by a further 41 pips after showing as oversold, before price action eventually does turn around and move higher, and it is then when the stochastic begins to comply with the price action.

One way that professional traders will guard against using the stochastic oscillator to get into a trade too early is to wait until the indicator has gone above the 80 and its moving averages have crossed over and moved under the line before they enter a short trade, or have moved under the 20 line, crossed over, and moved up above the line before they will enter a long trade. 

Professional traders will very rarely use a single indicator such as the stochastic on its own to enter a trade.

In this A B C scenario, we have more clues about potential future price direction.  First, we have the stochastic showing oversold at position A, and when price action reverts higher to position B, price action appears to stay inflated and ignores the stochastic, initially. However, when price moves lower at position C, we have a divergence in the stochastic and price action, where the stochastic has moved lower to the 20% line, and price action at position C has not moved lower to the level at position A. It has formed a higher low, and this is an indication in itself that price action may be fading to the downside, especially when coupled with the hesitation to move lower at position B, and whereby a bear candle spike outside of the Bollinger band at position C is another hint that price action may move back inside the bands, because, as you will probably know, 95% of price action will revert inside the Bollinger bands if it spikes outside.

This setup, simply by using the stochastic to show oversold, where its moving averages have moved under the 20 line, then crossed over and moved higher than the 20-line, plus divergence in price action, and a higher low set up, and a candle spike outside the Bollinger bands has been the set up for this bull trade which saw 140 pips to the upside.

Simply look out for this setup in reverse to take on a bear trade.

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

EURCAD Looks Bouncing from Demand Zone

The EURCAD cross is still moving in a likely incomplete triangle pattern, developing since mid-March when the price found resistance on 1.59914. As pictured by the following 12-hour chart, the mid-term Elliott Wave structure shows the incomplete progress of a contracting triangle of Minor degree labeled in green.

The EURCAD cross is still moving in a likely incomplete triangle pattern, developing since mid-March when the price found resistance on 1.59914. As pictured by the following 12-hour chart, the mid-term Elliott Wave structure shows the incomplete progress of a contracting triangle of Minor degree labeled in green.

The EURCAD cross is still moving in a likely incomplete triangle pattern, developing since mid-March when the price found resistance on 1.59914. As pictured by the following 12-hour chart, the mid-term Elliott Wave structure shows the incomplete progress of a contracting triangle of Minor degree labeled in green.

Technical Overview

According to the Elliott wave theory, the triangle pattern follows an internal structure subdivided into 3-3-3-3-3 waves. In this context, the EURCAD triangle appears to be completing its third internal segment and start developing a new rally corresponding to wave D of Minor degree, identified in green.

On the other hand, considering the Alternation Principle, and in view that the movement developed by the wave C, in green seems like a complex corrective sequence, which took an extended time span, the following move -corresponding to wave D, could develop in a shorter time range. In this regard, it is possible that the cross would create an aggressive rally.

Short-term Technical Outlook

The short-term view displayed in its 12-hour chart (shown above) shows that the EURCAD reacted mostly upward in the demand zone identified in green between 1.54535 and 1.54273. This situation leads to expect that market participants could continue pushing it higher.

An alternative scenario considers the possibility of a new limited decline toward the next demand zone between 1.53688 and 1.53130. In this zone, the cross could find fresh buyers and complete its wave C of Minor degree, identified in green.

On the other hand, before taking any position on the bullish side, it is convenient to wait for the descending upper-line breakout that connects the waves (ii) and (iv). This would confirm the cross’s bullish bias. As for the targets, the suggested following movement, corresponding to wave D, in green, could rise till the next supply zone, located between 1.59139 and 1.59791.

Finally, the bullish scenario has its invalidation level at the end of wave A in green, located at 1.50562

Categories
Forex Videos

Forex & The Brexit Conundrum – How You Can Trade the Outcome and Make Insane Profits!

https://youtu.be/J_zpi8kpyIo

https://youtu.be/J_zpi8kpyIo


The Brexit Conundrum, how to trade cable?

 

Thank you for joining this forex academy educational video.

In this session, we will be looking at the Brexit conundrum,  where Great Britain, which has left the European Union, will have completed its transition period on the 31st of December, and which this date is enshrined in law, and cannot be moved, unless by an act of legislation, which is completely unlikely, bearing in mind the government’s stance on sticking to this date.

British businesses and Europeans too, are bitterly disappointed that a formal no trade deal has not so far been agreed between the United Kingdom and European Union, where the two sides seem to be at loggerheads over fishing rights,  and the so-called level playing field where the European Union is worried that the United Kingdom might undercut European businesses when the UK forms trade deals with other countries around the world, once the transition period ends.

This affects UK businesses who simply do not know whether they will be levying tariffs against the EU should a free trade deal not be set in place, and whereby they are simply not in a position to know which types of rules and regulations they will be following on the 1st of January 2021.

Rumors and speculation are driving the financial markets, where one moment the two sides are close to implementing a free trade deal, only to be scuppered by officials on either side saying they are still miles apart, but where while there is hope that an 11th-hour free trade deal can be completed. Traders are looking on the positive side, and this is reflected in the British pound, here seen on a one-hour chart of the GBPUSD pair where it is most widely traded.

The swing in price action between positions A B and C is over 400 pips during the 10 days of trading here. These are significant moves. But interestingly, we can see that price is largely conforming to within two key levels, 1.31 and 1.33, with a slight bias to the upside. A and C is a classic double top reversal formation.

Here we have highlighted the pullback from position C to position D, which has respected the 1.3200 line after the pullback. It is a 50% retracement of the earlier move from A to B, and this is significant because traders believe there will be a last-minute attempt to close a free trade deal between the two sides, who are playing this situation like a game of poker, and where neither side wants to be the first one to blink.

So where next for the pound?  Certainly, if a free trade deal is agreed on, the pound should strengthen against the dollar.  Some analysts predict moves of to 1.400, should a free trade deal be agreed on. But price action could revert lower to potentially to 1.2500 should the UK leave on WTO rules.

 

Any trading on the pound should be done with the utmost caution and with tight stops in place. Look out for moves in price action to these key trade levels, which are round numbers, and use them in your trading setup.  Expect volatile price action the longer this is drawn out, bearing in mind two deadlines have already been passed, one being the 15th of October as set down by the British government’s and more recently the middle of November, which were deemed necessary to implement new legislation pertaining to a possible free trade deal.   And wherever possible, instigate break-even stop-outs on your trades.

 

Categories
Forex Basic Strategies

Momentum Trading

 
Introduction
There are two approaches to address the market, even when trading in favour of the primary trend.

The first one is buying weakness and the second one is

 
Introduction
There are two approaches to address the market, even when trading in favour of the primary trend.

The first one is buying weakness and the second one is

Introduction

There are two approaches to address the market, even when trading in favour of the primary trend.

The first one is buying weakness and the second one is trading strength on a bullish trend, and the opposite on a downward trend. This one is the buy low sell high philosophy.  But there is a second way of doing business. The buy high and sell higher.

The first methodology is for smart guys. They see a piece of cheese, and they want to be the first mouse to catch it. But it may be just a trap, and they might become a victim of their audacity.

The second methodology means you are part of a crowd of mice that take the cheese after a bunch of pioneer rats took it, and was confirmed that it wasn’t a trap.

Here we are going to talk about this second way of doing business, called Momentum Trading.

Momentum

So what is Momentum and why is it different from other indicators?

Momentum is the change in price over an interval. This is a relation between the price change and the time it takes to achieve it. It measures the speed of change.

If we imagine a ball thrown out vertically,  its speed declines as it goes up until it stops and starts falling down. If we measure the amount of altitude traveled every second we could observe that the value decreases until it stops in mid-air.

The formula for momentum is:

Momentum = Price (0) – Price(n)

Where n is the price n bars earlier. Therefore, Momentum is an indicator of the speed of the price movement.

Grasping Momentum

The most remarkable feature of Momentum is that it doesn’t show lag. A moving average turns down after the market peaks, Momentum turns instantly. Momentum just answers the question of how high or low the price moves compared to n periods ago

Momentum as a leading indicator

A technical indicator that is an average of the price has to show a lag, the longer the period, the larger the lag. On MACD we could reduce it by subtracting another moving average,  but it still has some lag because one period is shorter than the other.

But Momentum is a subtraction of the price, so we get the speed, which leads the movement. That is, first comes speed before any movement is produced. Therefore, Momentum leads to price movement.

Momentum as an Overbought and Oversold indicator

The distribution of price follows a bell-shaped curve (see the figure). We observe that the volume is centred around the mean of this bell curve, and the extremes are overbought and oversold areas. Near these extremes, the price stops and bounces back towards the mean. The Momentum indicator shows this phenomenon pointing to a sharp change in speed.

Divergences

This indicator is especially indicated to divergences. When the price is making maximums and Momentum is slowing down, it is a sign that the trend is ending and a correction is due, although it can be a retracement or a simple sideways movement.

It is important to note that divergences are just warning flags we must pay attention to, not actual trading signals.

In the next article, we’ll analyze a simple Momentum system.

 

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave Forex Market Analysis Forex Technical Analysis

Would you Trade this CADJPY Pattern?

The CADJPY cross moved up in the Tuesday trading session, boosted by the stock market’s risk-on sentiment. Although the cross advances 2.25% during the current month, the price is under -4% (YTD).

The CADJPY cross moved up in the Tuesday trading session, boosted by the stock market’s risk-on sentiment. Although the cross advances 2.25% during the current month, the price is under -4% (YTD).

The CADJPY cross moved up in the Tuesday trading session, boosted by the stock market’s risk-on sentiment. Although the cross advances 2.25% during the current month, the price is under -4% (YTD).

Technical Overview

The CADJPY prices represented in the next 12-hour chart reveal the short-term market participants’ sentiment moving in the 90-day high and low range. The figure illustrates the cross advancing mostly upward in the bullish sentiment zone.

On the other hand, the previous chart presents a contracting triangle, which began in early June when CADJPY found fresh sellers on 81.909, followed by a first support level at 77.614. According to the classic chartist theory, the triangle pattern distinguishes itself as a continuation formation. In this case, this contracting triangle suggests further upsides.

In this regard, the likely next move could lead to a test of its intraday resistance of 80.591: this level corresponds to the bullish sentiment zone’s resistance, as well. If the price overcomes it and extends its upward advance, the cross could reach its supply zone between 80.985 and 81.424, a level that matches the triangle pattern’s upper trendline.

Conversely, a downward correction could drop it to its demand zone between 79.468 and 79.237.

Short-term Technical Outlook

The short-term Elliott Wave view for the CADJPY cross displayed in the next 4-hour chart reveals the advance in an incomplete internal structural series of a contracting triangle pattern, which currently advances developing its wave (e) of Minuette degree, labeled in blue.

The previous chart presents the price advancing in the wave b of Subminuette degree, identified in blue, which belongs to wave (e), also in blue. According to the Elliott Wave theory, the triangle pattern follows an internal sequence subdivided into 3-3-3-3-3 waves. In this context, and observing its advance in the triangle formation, the cross could develop its latest decline before starting a rally that corresponds to wave ((c)) of Minute degree, labeled in black.

The current downward move, corresponding to wave c, in green, could reach two potential demand zones. The first one is located between 79.468 and 79.237, whereas the second one is seen from 78.878 to 78.394.

Once CADJPY starts to get fresh buyers, the cross could experience a strong rally and test June’s high zone of 81.909.

Finally, the bullish scenario has its invalidation level below the wave (a) of Minuette degree in blue located at 77.585, under the contracting triangle pattern limits.

Categories
Forex Daily Topic Forex Fundamental Analysis

Everything You Need To Know About The ‘Jobs to Applications Ratio’

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

For any economy, one of the best indicators of health in the labor market is how quickly the unemployed get absorbed into the job industry. This would indicate if the current economy is expanding at par with the growing number of job seekers. Apart from showing the absorption rate in the job market, it can also be used as a coincident economic indicator.

Understanding Jobs to Applications Ratio

The jobs to applications ratio help to put into perspective the number of job vacancies available vs. the number of job applications made during a particular time.

The job vacancies, in this case, represents the totality of the existing Job Vacancies from the previous reporting period that haven’t been filled and the new vacancies in the current period. For example, the total job vacancies for October 2020 would include the unfilled vacancies from the previous months in 2020 and the vacancies that became available in October 2020. The number of job applications does not necessarily need to be those that directly applied for these vacancies. This number is the totality of job seekers who have registered with employment bureaus across the country seeking employment.

Therefore, the formula of the jobs to applications ratio is 

When the number of active job openings is higher than that of active job seekers, the jobs to applications ratio will be higher than 1. Furthermore, the jobs to applications ratio will increase if the number of job openings increases faster than that of active job seekers. Conversely, if the number of active job seekers is higher than that of active openings, the jobs to applications ratio will be lower. Similarly, when the number of active job seekers grows at a faster pace than that of active job openings, the jobs to applications ratio will decrease at a rapid rate.

In most countries, the number of graduates from tertiary academic institutions is usually high. For this reason, most jobs to applications ratio reports usually exclude new school graduates and part-time job seekers. The primary reason for doing this is to smoothen the data since it is not expected that the labor market will absorb all graduates.

Using Jobs to Applications Ratio in Analysis

The Jobs to Applications Ratio shows the health of the labor market and is also a coincident indicator of economic growth. The best way to use the jobs to applications ratio in the analysis is by viewing it as a time series. It will enable you to compare the change in the economy over time easily.

To understand the implication of the Jobs to Application Ratio, we must first understand how job openings and unemployment come about. When the economy is expanding, the unemployment levels go down. An expanding economy is mainly driven by an increase in demand in the economy. Usually, household demand is the primary driver of the increase in aggregate demand.

When the aggregate demand rises, producers of goods and services must also scale up their operations to take advantage of the increasing demand and to avoid distortion of equilibrium price. When they expand their operations, they will need to hire more workers; this is where the unemployment levels go down. Also, note that when the unemployment rate reduces, it means that households’ expenditure increases, which also leads to the expansion of the economy. It is a feedback loop.

It also means that when the economy is contracting, it is a sign of a decrease in aggregate demand. This decrease force producers of consumer goods and services to cut back their production, which results in fewer job openings and increased unemployment.

Now let’s see what jobs to application ratio has to do with all this. When the Jobs to Applications Ratio is increasing over time, it implies that the number of active job openings is growing faster than that of the active job seekers. If, for example, the jobs to applications ratio has been increasing steadily over the past couple of months or years, it would mean the economy has been expanding. This increase shows that increasingly more jobs have been created in the economy.

Alternatively, it could mean that the rate of job retention in the economy is higher since fewer people lose their jobs and begin seeking employment all over again. Conversely, when the Jobs to Applications Ratio is continually decreasing, it means that the economy is contracting and the economy is creating fewer jobs. It could also mean that more jobs are lost in the economy hence the higher number of new job seekers.

The Jobs to Applications Ratio can also show the business cycles and periods of recession and expansion in the economy. When the Jobs to Applications Ratio continually drops, it implies that the economy has been contracting over an extended period with a growing number of unemployed in the economy. This is a clear sign of economic recession. In Japan, for example, the persistent drop in the job to application ratio coincided with the coronavirus-induced recession of the first half of 2020.

Source: Japan Institute for Labour Policy and Training

In times of economic recovery, businesses are presumed to gradually increase their operations, which means that the jobs to applications ratio will steadily increase.

Impact of Jobs to Applications Ratio on Currency

The value of the currency fluctuates depending on the perceived economic growth. Thus, the direct impact that jobs to applications ration has on currency is its inherent ability to show economic expansions and contractions.

The domestic currency will be expected to appreciate when the jobs to applications ratio increases. The increase in the jobs to applications ratio shows that the economy has been growing hence improved living standards.

Conversely, the domestic currency will depreciate when the jobs to application ratio are steadily decreasing. The continual decrease shows that the domestic economy has been contracting.

Sources of Data

In Japan, the Japan Institute for Labour Policy and Training is responsible for conducting surveys of the Japanese labor market. The institute publishes the data on Jobs to Applications Ratio monthly.

Trading Economics has a historical review of the Japanese jobs to applications ratio.

How Jobs to Applications Ratio Release Affects The Forex Price Charts

The Japan Institute for Labour Policy and Training published the latest jobs to applications ratio on October 2, 2020, at 8.30 AM JST. The release is accessed from Investing.com. Moderate volatility is expected on the JPY when the data is published.

In August 2020, the jobs/applications ratio was 1.04 compared to the 1.08 recorded in July 2020. Furthermore, the August ratio was less than the analysts’ expectations of 1.05.

Let’s see how this release impacted the JPY.

USD/JPY: Before Jobs to Applications Ratio Release on October 2, 2020, 
just before 8.30 AM JST

Before the release of the ratio, the USD/JPY pair was trading in a subdued uptrend. The 20-period MA was only slightly rising.

USD/JPY: After Jobs to Applications Ratio Release on October 2, 2020, 
at 8.30 AM JST

The pair formed a 5-minute bearish “hammer” candle immediately after the release of the ratio. Subsequently, it traded in a neutral pattern before adopting a bullish trend.

Bottom Line

The Jobs to Applications Ratio plays a significant role in establishing the health of the labor market. However, in the forex market, the unemployment rate is the most-watched economic indicator when it comes to the health of the labor market.

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Nov 25 – Bitcoin Above $19,000: What’s Next?

The cryptocurrency sector has spent the day pushing towards the upside as Bitcoin rallied and reached past $19,000. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap is currently trading for $19,093, representing an increase of 4.37% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum lost 0.55% on the day, while XRP gained 14.94%.

The cryptocurrency sector has spent the day pushing towards the upside as Bitcoin rallied and reached past $19,000. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap is currently trading for $19,093, representing an increase of 4.37% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum lost 0.55% on the day, while XRP gained 14.94%.

The cryptocurrency sector has spent the day pushing towards the upside as Bitcoin rallied and reached past $19,000. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap is currently trading for $19,093, representing an increase of 4.37% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum lost 0.55% on the day, while XRP gained 14.94%.

 Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

Verge 63.06% in the past 24 hours, making it the most prominent daily gainer in the top100. It is closely followed by Stellar’s gain of 59.30% and Status’s 31.14% gain. On the other hand, Bitcoin Gold lost 16.21%, making it the most prominent daily loser. SushiSwap lost 12.05% while Balancer lost 7.89%, making them the 2nd and 3rd most prominent daily losers.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s market dominance has increased over the course of the day, with its value is currently staying at 61.06%. This value represents a 1% difference to the upside compared to the value it had yesterday.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The crypto sector capitalization has increased slightly over the course of the day. Its current value is $571.53 billion, representing an $8.86 billion increase compared to our previous report.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

_______________________________________________________________________

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

The largest cryptocurrency by market cap has had an exciting day as its price reached past the $18,500 mark and pushed towards its all-time highs. Bitcoin managed to get to $19,450 before the momentum started dying off. It is currently consolidating just at the $19,000 mark, fighting to stay above it. This move was enabled by a booming altcoin situation, which led to a money pour-over into Bitcoin.

Any trading to the downside is completely irresponsible now due to how Bitcoin is moving. On the other hand, its movement towards the upside is very hectic, and traders should pay attention to when they enter and exit trades. If Bitcoin establishes its presence above the $19,000 mark with confidence, another push that might break the $20,000 all-time high level is entirely possible.

BTC/USD 2-hour Chart

Bitcoin’s technicals are tilted to the bull-side slightly, with only the weekly time-frame being completely bullish. In contrast, its other time-frames contain a hint of neutrality or even bearishness.

BTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Price is above its 50-period EMA and at its 21-period EMA
  • Price slightly above its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (55.57)
  • Volume is average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $19000                                  1: $18500

2: $19500                                  2: $17,850

3: $19,666                                  3: $17,450

Ethereum

Ethereum’s parabolic move, which brought its price from $480 to $625, has seemingly ended, and Ethereum has entered a consolidation/retracement phase. While it was uncertain whether the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap will stay above $600, the fight for the level has ended, and ETH moved back below it.

Ethereum has a very strong zone of resistance above $600 and all the way up to $632. On the other hand, it has a decently strong support zone at $575-$580. We can expect Ethereum to move in that range in the short-term unless a new breakout occurs.


ETH/USD 2-hour Chart

Ethereum’s technicals are tilted to the bull-side slightly, with only the monthly time-frame being completely bullish. In contrast, its other time-frames contain slight neutrality or even bearishness.

ETH/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical Factors (4-hour Chart):
  • The price is above its 50-period and slightly below its 21-period EMA
  • Price is near its bottom Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (50.82)
  • Volume is above average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $600                                     1: $510

2: $630                                     2: $500 

3: $735                                      3: $490

Ripple

The fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap’s controversial parabolic rise has died down and actually kept most of its gains. XRP has moved back from its recent highs of $0.78 (and even $0.9 on some exchanges) to a steadier $0.68, which is its current price. We can also see that XRP made a double top at the $0.735 mark, as well as a double bottom at the $0.625 support level.

Trading XRP is more manageable now as the volatility has died down, and the zones of support/resistance have been established. However, trading crypto overall is extremely risky at the moment, and only moves to the upside (and possibly sideways movement) should be traded.

XRP/USD 2-hour Chart

XRP’s 4-hour and daily overviews are completely bullish and show no signs of neutrality whatsoever, while its weekly and monthly overviews show slight neutrality or even a hint of bearishness.

XRP/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • The price is far above its 50-period EMA and slightly above its 21-period EMA
  • Price is slightly above its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (59.98)
  • Volume is above average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $0.79                                     1: $0.625 

2: $0.963                                   2: $0.475

3: $1.01                                    3: $0.443

 

Categories
Forex Course

179. Using the COT Report for Trading & Analysis

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

Our previous lessons have covered where you can access the Commitment of Traders Report and the components contained within the report. In this lesson, we discuss how you can use the Commitment of Traders Report in forex trading.

Since the COT report gives the market sentiment in forex, this report’s publication should affect the price action in forex. Most forex traders pay attention to the non-commercial traders’ category of the COT report. The interest with the non-commercial traders is because these traders are considered speculative participants.

The nonreportable positions held by small-scale retail traders are not significant enough to move the markets. Similarly, since commercial traders are not considered speculative traders, the impact of their positions on price action tends to be subdued.

How the COT Report Affects Price Action?

When the non-commercial traders are accumulating their positions, it affirms a particular trend. Let’s take the AUD/USD, for example. When non-commercial traders, over time, are accumulating futures short position on the AUD as the AUD/USD pair falls, is a confirmation that this downtrend will persist. Conversely, when the non-commercial traders are accumulating future long positions of the AUD as the AUD/USD keeps rising, it is a confirmation that the uptrend will continue. This way, you can use the COT report as a trend confirmation indicator.

The COT report can also be used to indicate the overbought and oversold regions. The non-commercial traders, i.e., speculators, have a limit on how much they can buy or sell. These traders will reach a point where they would want to close their positions and take profits. Furthermore, when in a persistent uptrend, speculators might feel it’s no longer profitable to keep buying futures contracts at higher prices. Similarly, in a downtrend, these traders might not consider it profitable to keep selling at lower prices.

When the speculators have reached their critical limits in the forex futures, they begin reversing their trends. For day traders, the impact of the COT is diminished since its effects are long-term.

How the COT Report Publication Affects Forex Charts?

The screengrab below is GBP futures. At the bottom, if the COT indicator is showing the trend of commercial traders, non-commercial traders, and retail traders. In this case, we are interested in the non-commercial traders (i.e., large traders) since their positions influence the trend.

As you can see, the market moves at pace with the changes in the positioning of the large traders.

[wp_quiz id=”89690″]
Categories
Forex Assets

Trading The JPY/HUF Forex Exotic Currency Pair

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

In the JPY/HUF currency pair, JPY represents the currency of Japan. On the other hand, HUF is the Hungarian Forint. This currency pair represents the value of Hungarian Forints (quote currency) per Yen (base currency). This pair can be represented as 1 JPY per X HUF. For example, if the value of this currency pair is at 2.91 (CMP), then about 2.9 HUF is required to purchase one JPY.

JPY/HUF Specification

Spread

If we want to determine the spread, we should subtract the Bid price and the Ask price. Spread is a trading charge that the broker takes as soon as we open a trade. This value changes with the change of the execution model.

Spread on ECN: 13 pips | Spread on STP: 18 pips

Fees

Every broker takes a trading fee from a trader. The process of taking the fee is almost the same as every broker in the world. Note that the fee is only applicable to ECN accounts.

Slippage

Slippage happens when the execution price and open trade price are not the same. The volatility and the broker’s execution speed are the main cause of slippage.

Trading Range in JPYHUF

The trading range is the representation of the minimum, average, and maximum volatility of this pair on the 1H, 4H, 1D, 1W, and 1M timeframe. Using these values, we can assess our profit/loss margin of trade. Hence, this proves to be a helpful risk management tool for all types of traders.

Procedure to assess Pip Ranges

  1. Add the ATR indicator to your chart
  2. Set the period to 1
  3. Add a 200-period SMA to this indicator
  4. Shrink the chart so you can assess a large time period
  5. Select your desired timeframe
  6. Measure the floor level and set this value as the min
  7. Measure the level of the 200-period SMA and set this as the average
  8. Measure the peak levels and set this as Max.

JPYHUF Cost as a Percent of the Trading Range

With the volatility values from the above table, we can determine the chance of cost with the change of volatility. We have got the ratio between total cost and the volatility values and converted them into percentages.

ECN Model Account 

Spread = 13 | Slippage = 5 | Trading fee = 8

Total cost = Spread + Slippage + Trading Fee

= 13 + 5 + 8

Total cost = 26

STP Model Account

Spread = 18 | Slippage = 5 | Trading fee = 0

Total cost = Spread + Slippage + Trading Fee

= 18 + 5 + 0

Total cost = 23 

The Ideal way to trade the JPYHUF

As per the above data, we can say that JPYHUF is not an extremely volatile pair. Therefore, traders from every level can trade with it and make money. The average cost per trade in the H1 timeframe is at 41.86%, which decreases to almost 1% in a monthly timeframe. As a trader, it is often hard to trade in a timeframe like weekly or monthly, as it is very time-consuming. Therefore, sticking to the hourly to daily timeframe is recommended for traders to minimize the trading cost.

Another way to reduce the cost is to place orders as ‘limit’ and ‘stop’ instead of ‘market’ orders. In limit orders, slippage will not be in the calculation of the total costs. Therefore, in the below example, the total cost will be reduced by five pips.

Limit Model Account (STP Model Account)

Spread = 18 | Slippage = 0 | Trading fee = 0

Total cost = Spread + Slippage + Trading Fee

= 18 + 0 + 0

Total cost = 18

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, November 25 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Unemployment Claims Eyed! 

The economic calendar is filled with medium impact economic events such as Unemployment Claims, UoM Consumer Sentiment, and Prelim GDP q/q from the United States on the news front. The market may show some price action during the U.S. session on the release of U.S. Jobless Claims.

The economic calendar is filled with medium impact economic events such as Unemployment Claims, UoM Consumer Sentiment, and Prelim GDP q/q from the United States on the news front. The market may show some price action during the U.S. session on the release of U.S. Jobless Claims.

The economic calendar is filled with medium impact economic events such as Unemployment Claims, UoM Consumer Sentiment, and Prelim GDP q/q from the United States on the news front. The market may show some price action during the U.S. session on the release of U.S. Jobless Claims.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.18897 after placing a high of 1.18959 and a low of 1.18334. After placing losses for two consecutive days, the EUR/USD pair rose and started to post gains on Tuesday amid the rising optimism and risk sentiment surrounding the market.

The safe-haven appeal suffered after AstraZeneca’s latest news that its vaccine could reach a 90% efficacy rate on the second dosage from 70% in the first one. However, the EUR/USD pair traders remained confused on Tuesday and moved the currency pair between gains and losses throughout the day and ended the day with gains as optimism regarding vaccine overshadowed the U.S. dollar’s strength. The U.S. dollar was strong in the market ahead of Wall Street’s opening; however, it fell under selling pressure after the U.S. Consumer Confidence fell in November. 

On the data front, at 12:00 GMT, the German Final GDP for the third quarter raised to 8.5% against the forecasted 8.2% and supported the single currency Euro that added further gains in EUR/USD pair. AT 14:00 GMT, the German IFO Business Climate for November also raised to 90.7 against the expected 90.3 and supported EUR/USD pair. At 19:00 GMT, the Housing Price Index for September elevated to 1.7% against the projected 0.8% and supported the U.S. dollar from the U.S. side. 

The S&P/CS Composite -20 HPI for the year also surged to 6.6% against the expected 5.3% and supported the U.S. dollar that ultimately capped further gains in EUR/USD pair. At 19:59 GMT, the Richmond Manufacturing Index dropped to 15 points from the projected 20 and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added gains in EUR/USD pair. The most awaited C.B. Consumer Confidence from the U.S. was released at 20:00 GMT also fell to 96.1 against the anticipated 97.7 and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added further gains in EUR/USD pair on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the reports that the U.S. President Trump has agreed with the transition process with Joe Biden and that the White House has given the go-ahead to Biden raised the risk sentiment and added further gains EUR/USD pair. Furthermore, the vaccine hopes also kept the market sentiment improved with the news that the new vaccine developed by AstraZeneca, a British Pharmaceutical, can provide 90% protection against the coronavirus and be cheaper against the previous Pfizer and Moderna due to its comfortable storage facility. These reports raised hopes that the global economy will start recovering now, and the riskier asset EUR/USD pair gained traction and started posting gains.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.1851     1.1911

1.1814     1.1934

1.1791     1.1972

Pivot point: 1.1874

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is trading with a bullish bias at the 1.1895 level, holding below an immediate resistance level of 1.1912. On the higher side, the EUR/USD pair may find resistance at 1.1912, and a bullish breakout of 1.1912 level can extend the upward trend until 1.1942. On the 2 hour timeframe, the EUR/USD pair was supported by an upward trendline, which got violated, and now the same trendline is supporting EUR/USD pair at 1.1862. Let’s look for a selling trade below the 1.1866 level today. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.33615 after a high of 1.33802 and a low of 1.32929. The currency pair GBP/USD continued its bullish movement on Tuesday for the 3rd consecutive day. The GBP/USD pair continued getting support from the British Pound’s strength after the rising Brexit optimism in the market. The hopes that a Brexit deal will be reached soon between the U.K. and the E.U. kept underpinning the Sterling and forced GBP/USD pair to remain on the market’s positive side.

Although nothing has been confirmed about the Brexit deal, the talks between both nations have been extended into this week. On Tuesday, a member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee said Tuesday that vaccine news had provided some light at the end of the tunnel.

He also said that he saw a long-term scarring effect from the coronavirus outbreak. He added that it was too early to say that vaccine news will significantly improve the Bank’s economic outlook for 2021. He said that even if the economy came back because of the vaccine, it would have to face the economy-Brexit’s further long-term problem.

On the data front, at 16:00 GMT, the CBI Realized Sales for November came in as -25 against the forecasted -34 and supported British Pound and added in the gains of the GBP/USD pair. At 19:00 GMT, the Housing Price Index for September rose to 1.7% against the expected 0.8% and supported the U.S. dollar from the U.S. side. The S&P/CS Composite -20 HPI for the year also raised to 6.6% against the estimated 5.3% and helped the U.S. dollar that ultimately capped further gains in GBP/USD pair. At 19:59 GMT, the Richmond Manufacturing Index fell to 15 points from the anticipated 20 and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added gains in GBP/USD pair. The most awaited C.B. Consumer Confidence from the U.S. was released at 20:00 GMT, also fell to 96.1 against the projected 97.7 and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added further gains in GBP/USD pair on Tuesday.

Furthermore, the GBP/USD pair was also supported by the latest optimism in the market that had kept the risk-on market sentiment improved. The risk perceived British Pound was supported by the risk sentiment raised by the AstraZeneca vaccine news. Its vaccine was proven to be 90% effective in the second dosage. It was said to be cheaper as it can be stored in an ordinary refrigerator compared to Pfizer, and Moderna’s vaccines that provide 95% protection against the virus were not so easy to store. This optimism also kept the market’s risk sentiment on the upper side and continued supporting the GBP/USD pair on Tuesday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3289     1.3312

1.3274     1.3320

1.3266     1.3336

Pivot point: 1.3297

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD traded bearishly at 1.3340, having bounced off over the support area of the 1.3292 level. On the higher side, the pair may go after the resistance level of 1.3394. Over there’s an upward trendline that is supporting Sterling on the 2-hour timeframe. The Cable below the 1.3292 level may find support at the 1.3240 level while the RSI and MACD support buying. Thus we should consider taking buying trade over the 1.3292 level to target 1.3394. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 104.439 after placing a high of 104.759 and a low of 104.144. The pair USD/JPY seesawed on Tuesday as it moved in an upward direction in early trading hours and reached near 104.76 level while in the late trading session, the USD/JPY pair started to lose its earlier gains and continued its bearish bias. The selling bias in the currency pair USD/JPY raised on Tuesday after posting massive gains on Monday amid the mixed market sentiment. The safe-haven Japanese Yen was under pressure on Tuesday after the positive market mood circulated due to progress in AstraZeneca’s coronavirus vaccine.

The equity market rallied after the latest optimism regarding the 90% adequate protection against the coronavirus with a comfortable storage facility compared to Pfizer’s and Moderna vaccine’s 95% protection against the virus with a difficult storage facility. The market participants continued following the optimism and shifted towards riskier assets against the safer ones.

The equity market was also boosted on Tuesday, with Dow Jones moving up at 30,000 points and the three main indexes in Wall Street rising by 1.5% each. The risk rally in Wall Street added pressure on the safe-haven Japanese Yen and supported the USD/JPY pair’s upward momentum on Tuesday. The USD/JPY pair could not remain on the upper side for long and started to lose its earlier gains after releasing the U.S. Macroeconomic data. At 19:00 GMT, the Housing Price Index for September from the U.S. rose to 1.7% against the anticipated 0.8% and supported the U.S. dollar. The S&P/CS Composite -20 HPI for the year also raised to 6.6% against the estimated 5.3% and helped the U.S. dollar. At 19:59 GMT, the Richmond Manufacturing Index was dropped to 15 points from the forecasted 20 and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added pressure on the USD/JPY pair. The most awaited C.B. Consumer Confidence from the U.S. was also released at 20:00 GMT that fell to 96.1 against the estimated 97.7 and weighed on the U.S. dollar that ultimately added in the losses of the USD/JPY pair on Tuesday.

The decline in Consumer Confidence in November weighed on the local currency U.S. dollar as the rising number of coronavirus cases in the U.S. was raising questions over the economic recovery in the absence of further stimulus aid. The talks were set to resume between Republicans and Democrats to discuss the possibility of delivering an additional aid package in December.

Furthermore, the latest news from the White House that the U.S. President-elect Joe Biden was formally given the go-ahead by the federal agency to begin his transition to the presidency also capped further losses in the USD/JPY pair on Tuesday. The U.S. General Services Administration (GSA), an independent agency, determined that Biden was the outward winner of the election and informed Biden that his transition until January 20 could officially begin. The go-ahead was given by the White House to Biden to intensify the fight against the coronavirus. All these positive news kept the risk-on market sentiment supported and continued supporting the USD/JPY pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

103.76     103.87

103.69     103.93

103.64     103.99

Pivot point: 103.81

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY continues to trade in a fresh choppy range of 104.700 – 104.056 level. On the higher side, a bullish breakout of 104.700 resistance can extend the buying trend until the next resistance area of 104.700 and 105.063 level. On the lower side, the support continues to hold around 104.056 and 103.667 level. The MACD suggests an overbought situation of the USD/JPY pair; thus, we should look for selling trade below 104.598 and buying above the same. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Videos

What Pairs Can You Trade To Reduce Your Risk In Forex?

https://youtu.be/yV8dhtsywkQ

https://youtu.be/yV8dhtsywkQ

 


How to take some risk out of currency trading – Beginners 

 

Thank you for joining this Forex academy educational video.

One of the challenges for new traders, especially in the forex market, is the sheer volatility concerned with the most popular currency pairs, which typically tend to be the major pairs.

Very briefly, these are currencies such as the British pound, the Australian and New Zealand dollar, the euro, the Swiss franc, the Canadian dollar, and the Japanese yen, which are all traded against the United States dollar and commonly known as the major currency pairs.  These currencies are associated with the biggest economies in the world and are the most widely traded in terms of volume, and this factor means that quite often you will see extreme volatility in the pairs, and this is where new traders find it difficult to get in and out of a trade successfully.

This is a 1-hour chart of one of the major pairs, the USD Japanese yen. We have highlighted two significant moves, one was a bullish breakout at position A of 200 pips, and the other relating to the overall move covered by the arrow at position B, was a bearish trend lower of 150 pips, thus giving back most of the previous move.

The issue here for new traders is that the move at position A was associated with a risk reversal event pertaining to covid vaccine developments, and the subsequent move at position B was the Japanese yen being bought because of its safe-haven status.  This makes this currency pair difficult to trade and subject to volatility.  These volatile moves can be large, as we can see, and happen without warning.  These types of moves are usually detrimental to new traders. 

 Here is a one hour chart of the British pound and US dollar over a 10 day trading period.  The moves on the chart have been subject to rumours and speculation with regard to the ongoing future trade negotiation between the United Kingdom and the European Union.  The tunes have been trying to best position themselves regarding any potential outcome that those negotiations might have and where they are currently at a critical stage with time running out.

The total amount of moves in pips from the five trends, as shown in the diagram, equals 700 pips. This is an extreme amount of volatility, and where price action can change unexpectedly,  often after unscheduled news pertaining to the negotiations, and where rumours abound and affect the price action. This is not for the faint-hearted, and again this can catch out new traders as they try to gauge where to go long and short.

This could potentially be a solution for new traders who want to dip their toe in the water and trade currencies for the first time I’m without the risk of the major volatile currencies. This is a one-hour chance of the Australian and New Zealand dollar pair.  This is not a major currency pair, yeah, because the dollar is not included, in which case it is classified as a cross-currency pair.

Because the Australian and New Zealand economies are extremely similar, and where the countries are in close proximity, and where both export largely to China, and because neither of these currencies is used as a safe-haven asset, such as the United States dollar, Japanese yen, or Swiss franc, for example, we tend to find smaller and less aggressive moves in this pair.  

Here we can see one price action move to the downside at position A, gaining 100 pips, and at position B, a period of consolidation, followed by a further move lower at position C, of 80 pips.  These moves are enough to make a living, yet not usually aggressive enough to catch traders out, especially during times when both countries are not active, i.e., during the European and US sessions, and where all the related economic data has been released to the market, and in times where no key policymaker speeches are due.

Let’s take a closer look at the consolidation period from the previous chart. We have a confirmed sideways price consolidation trend, as confirmed by two areas reversing lower from a clear line, which becomes a line of resistance, and where there are two reversals in price action from another straight line, such as shown on the chart, which becomes an area of support.

Any subsequent reversals from either the support or resistance line are good opportunities to go long or short, such as those as indicated on the chart.  Incidentally, at these points, price-action has also spiked outside of the Bollinger bands, and when price action moves inside them, this is also an indication of a potential price action reversal.

In conclusion, if you are a new trader and adverse to market volatility and want to trade a less volatile pair, this will highly likely suit you.

 

Categories
Forex Fundamental Analysis

USD/CAD Global Macro Analysis – Part 3

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

The exogenous analysis for the USD/CAD pair will involve analyzing factors that significantly contribute to these two currencies’ interaction. Remember, when trading forex, you are trading a currency pair, which means you buy one currency and sell the other. With exogenous analysis, you get the bigger picture regarding the currency pair as a whole. In a sense, the exogenous analysis compares how the endogenous factors between the US and Canadian economies net against each other.

For the exogenous analysis, we’ll focus on:

US and Canadian Interest rate differential

Interest rate differential is the difference between the interest rates in the US and Canadian. When the interest rate in one country s higher than the other, investors will pull their funds from the country with the lower interest rate to invest in high yielding securities in the country with the higher interest rate.

Canada’s interest rate has for most of the year been higher than that in the US. We, therefore, expect that from March 2020, the USD weakened against the CAD. However, since the current interest rate differential is 0%, going forward, we do not expect that it will play a significant role in determining the value of the USD/CAD pair. Hence, we assign it a neutral score of 0.

GDP Growth Differential

A country’s GDP growth is mainly propelled by growth in international trade. Therefore, when the GDP expands, we can expect that the country is becoming a net exporter. That means the demand for its currency increases in the international market, which also increases its value.

Over the years, the Canadian GDP growth rate has outpaced that of the US. However, in the third quarter of 2020, the US GDP growth rate outpaced Canada by 23.1%. Based on our correlation analysis between the GDP differential and the USD/CAD pair, we assign an inflationary score of 2. If this trend continues, we expect a future strengthening of the USD against CAD.

Differences in Trade Balance

The balance of trade helps to show the trade deficits that a country operates in the international market. The trade deficit widens as the country consistently becomes a net importer. Furthermore, the trade deficit can also widen if the value of the goods exported by a country drops while the value of imports increases.

From April 2020, the Canadian trade deficit has been widening as compared to that of the US. In October 2020 data release, the Canadian trade deficit widened by CAD 3.25 billion while the US trade deficit widened by $3.1 billion. Due to its high correlation with the USD/CAD pair, we assign the difference in trade deficit an inflationary score of 3. If this trend persists, we expect it to result in bullish USD/CAD.

Conclusion

Based on the exogenous analysis, the USD/CAD gets an inflationary score of 5. It implies that if the current trend of the exogenous factors persists, we can expect a bullish trend for the USD/CAD pair in the near term.  Now that we know the trend, we can use technical analysis to find accurate entries and exits in this currency pair while keeping the bullish trend in mind.

From the exogenous analysis of the USD/CAD pair, we have observed that the pair is expected to adopt a bullish trend in the near term. Let’s see if this is supported by technical analysis. In the below weekly chart, we can see the pair bouncing off a 2-year support line and from the oversold territory of the Bollinger Bands. This indicates a clear bullish trend in the near future. 

We hope you found this analysis informative. Please let us know if you have any questions in the comments below, and we would love to address them. Cheers.

Categories
Forex Fundamental Analysis

USD/CAD Global Macro Analysis – Part 2

CAD Endogenous Analysis – Summary

CAD Endogenous Analysis – Summary

CAD Endogenous Analysis – Summary

The Canadian endogenous factors recorded a score of -11.5, implying a deflationary effect in the CAD as well. This means that according to the Fundamental indicators, the CAD has also lost its value since the year began, but not as much as the USD.

Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate measures the number of people who do not have jobs and are actively seeking gainful employment. The unemployment rate is used to show business cycles and economic growth because when businesses expand, the demand for labor is higher when the economy is undergoing a contraction, the demand for labor decreases, and the unemployment rate increases.

In October 2020, the Canadian unemployment rate was 8.9% down from the historic highs of 13.7% registered in May 2020. The rate is still higher than the 5.6% average before the onset of the coronavirus pandemic.

Based on our correlation analyses, the Canadian unemployment rate gets a score of -6. It means that in 2020 the unemployment rate has a deflationary impact on the CAD.

Canadian Rate of Inflation

The Canadian CPI is a weighted average of the following categories: Shelter 27.5%, Transportation 9.3%, Food 16.1%, household operations 11.8%, education and recreation 11.8%, clothing 5.7%, health and personal care 5%, and alcohol and tobacco 3%.

The CPI target in Canada is 2%. The Bank of Canada uses monetary policy to maintain inflation within the target range of 2%. An increasing rate of inflation is positive for the CAD.

In October 2020, the annual inflation rate in Canada rose to 0.7 from lows of -0.4 in May 2020, but still below the 2.4 recorded in January.

We assign the Canadian rate of inflation a score of -7, meaning it had a negative impact on the CAD.

Canada Industrial production

Industrial production is used to measure the output from manufacturing, mining, and the utility sectors in Canada.

In August 2020, the industrial production in Canada declined by 9.04%. Based on our correlation analysis of the Canadian industrial production and GDP, we assign it a deflationary score of -5.

Manufacturing sales

The Canadian manufacturing sales measure the value changes in the output from the manufacturing goods in the economy. It can be used to measure the short-term health of the manufacturing sector and, by extension, the health of the overall economy.

In September 2020, the manufacturing sales were worth CAD 53.8 billion, representing a 1.4% increase from August. However, manufacturing sales are still 3.6% below the pre-coronavirus period.

Based on the correlation analysis with the Canadian GDP, we assign an inflationary score of 3 to the manufacturing sales.

Retail sales

The Canadian retail sales data measures the total value that households spend on purchasing goods and services for direct consumption. This value is adjusted for inflation.

Consumption by households accounts for up to 78% of the Canadian GDP. Changes in the retail sales data can be used as a leading indicator of the welfare of households. Higher retail sales imply increased demand in the economy hence higher manufacturing and lower unemployment rates.

The retail sales in September 2020 steadily increased by 1.1% from lows of -26.4% in April. Based on the correlation analysis with the GDP, we assign retail sales a score of 6.

Government debt to GDP ratio

In 2019, Canada’s public debt to GDP was 88.6, representing a 1.26% decline from 89.7 registered in 2018.

In 2020 the government debt to GDP in Canada is expected to rise due to the various stimulus packages necessitated by the coronavirus pandemic. However, based on the past correlation analysis with GDP, we assign a marginal deflationary score of -2 on Canada’s government debt to GDP ratio.

Canada housing starts

The housing starts indicators track the number of new residential buildings that begin construction. It is used as a leading indicator of the demand in the real estate market and demand in the housing market.

In October 2020, the housing starts in Canada were 214,875 units. Based on the correlation analysis with the GDP, we assign Canadian housing starts an inflationary score of 2.5.

Canada Government Budget Value

This indicator measures the value of the Canadian budget in terms of surplus or deficit. It takes into account the difference between revenues collected and the expenditures by the government. The government budget value doesn’t include public debt.

As of August 2020, the Canadian budget deficit was CAD 21.94 billion. Revenue collected by the government during the month dropped by CAD 1.3 billion, while expenditures increased by CAD 42.92 billion due to COVID-19 response measures.

Based on its high correlation with the GDP, we assign a deflationary score of -6.

Business confidence

In Canada, business confidence is measured by the Ivey Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). It measures the business expectations and operating environment from the perspective of an operating panel of purchasing managers from both private and public sectors across Canada.

The Ivey PMI focuses on supplier deliveries, purchases, employment, inventories, and prices. Values over 50 imply expansion while below 50 implies contraction.

The Ivey PMI reading for October 2020 was 54.5, indicating expansion. From our correlation analysis, we assign Canadian business confidence an inflationary score of 3.

In our next article, we will analyze the Exogenous factors of both USD and CAD to come to an appropriate conclusion.

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave Forex Market Analysis

Is the US Dollar Index Ready for a Bounce?

The US Dollar Index (DXY) advances in the extreme bearish sentiment zone finding an intraday support on Monday’s trading session at 92.016. During this intraday bounce, the price jumped to the extreme bearish zone’s resistance, where the price action started to consolidate. Even considering this intraday recovery, the Greenback accumulates losses of nearly 4.40% (YTD).

The US Dollar Index (DXY) advances in the extreme bearish sentiment zone finding an intraday support on Monday’s trading session at 92.016. During this intraday bounce, the price jumped to the extreme bearish zone’s resistance, where the price action started to consolidate. Even considering this intraday recovery, the Greenback accumulates losses of nearly 4.40% (YTD).

The US Dollar Index (DXY) advances in the extreme bearish sentiment zone finding an intraday support on Monday’s trading session at 92.016. During this intraday bounce, the price jumped to the extreme bearish zone’s resistance, where the price action started to consolidate. Even considering this intraday recovery, the Greenback accumulates losses of nearly 4.40% (YTD).

Technical Overview

The US Dollar Index, represented in its 8-hour chart, shows the market sentiment’s participants moving within its 90-high and low range, and it reveals the bearish pressure on the Greenback. In this regard, as long as the price keeps moving below 92.663, the short-term trend should stay mostly bearish.

On the other hand, the big picture under the Elliott Wave perspective illustrated in its 8-hour chart reveals the progress in an incomplete corrective formation, which could correspond to a flat pattern.

According to the wave theory, the flat pattern follows an internal sequence subdivided into 3-3-5. In this case, the Greenback should advance in a rally in a wave ((c)) of Minute degree identified in black subdivided into five segments.

An alternative scenario considers the possibility of a triangle pattern (3-3-3-3-3) or a double-three (3-3-3) in progress. However, the structure observed until this point doesn’t allow us to confirm or discard any of these potential Elliott wave formations.

Short-term Technical Outlook

The Greenback in its 4-hour range unveils the completion of the wave ((b)) of Minute degree labeled in black in the demand zone between 92.019 and 91.750, where the price bounced from on Monday’s trading session until 92.800.


Once the price reacted mostly upward, the US Dollar Index began to decline in a wave ii or B of Subminuette degree identified in green. In this regard, a bullish confirmation should lead us to expect further upward movements that could boost the price toward the next supply zone between 93.343 and 93.545.

If the Elliott wave formation corresponds to a Flat pattern, the price could surpass the supply zone level of 94.303 and seek to test the end of wave ((a)) located on 94.742.

On the other hand, we should be aware that a rally in the US Dollar Index implies a potential drop in the pairs against the US Dollar, for example, EURUSD or GBPUSD.

Finally, the return to a  bullish scenario holds its invalidation level at 92.016, which corresponds to the bottom of the first upwards move identified in green.

Categories
Forex Fundamental Analysis

Exploring The ‘US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count’ Macro Economic Indicator

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

Countries like the US and Canada, whose economies largely depend on oil, knowing if oil production is increasing or decreasing can offer valuable insight into the economy. The changes in production not only serve as a leading indicator of demand for oil and its products but also of the labor market.

Understanding US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count

Baker Hughes is an American energy technology company providing oil field services. The company specializes in the oil and gas industry, providing services from exploration, formation evaluation, oil drilling, production, and reservoir consulting. Baker Hughes is operational in over 120 countries. Other services provided by the company include turbomachinery and process solutions, software and analytics, and measurements, testing, and control, throughout the oil and gas industry.

The US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count reports the number of oil and gas rigs operating in the US. The report is published every Friday at noon EST. The report details the rig count based on location, i.e., the number of rigs operational on land, inland waters, and offshore. It also contains a section on “US Breakout Information,” which has subsections on oil, gas, and miscellaneous.

This section of the report also shows the number of directional, horizontal, or vertical rigs. Furthermore, the report also shows the ‘Major State Variances.’ A different section of the US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count report also breaks down the Rotary oil and gas rigs operations by State and location.

Suffice to say, the US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count report provides a comprehensive look into the oil and gas weekly operations. The report shows the rigs that are operational during the current reporting period and the change from the previous reported period. It also shows the current change from a year ago.

Using US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count in Analysis

The US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count can show the demand for oil and oil products. Furthermore, the report is a leading indicator of the demand for products and services offered by the oil service industry.

When the oil rig count increases, more oil rigs have become operational during the reporting period. In the labor industry, this increase has two implications – an increase in direct and indirect labor. Direct labor increases since the workers in these rigs become active. Indirect labor is in the form of workers who will provide ancillary services to the operational oil rigs. In cities where these rigs are operational, they form an integral part of the economy. Therefore, when they are operational, the economies in these regions flourish, and the unemployment levels decline.

Furthermore, the consumer discretionary sectors also expand due to an increase in household demand. Conversely, when the count reduces, it means that the oil rigs are shutting down. The consequence of this is layoffs, which eventually depresses the demand in the economy. It is essential to know that while oil production in the US is not the major employer in the labor market, the effects of massive job losses on the broader economy cannot be ignored.

The increase in the US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count means that there is an increasing oil demand.  To better understand the oil demand, we first need to understand the top consumers of oil in the economy. According to the US Energy Information Administration, the top consumers of oil in the US are; transportation 68%, industries 26%, residential 3%, commercial 2%, and electric power less than 1%. Therefore, we can safely conclude that whenever oil production increases, the increase in demand is primarily driven by transportation and industrial sectors.

Here is the implication to the economy, when oil demand by these two industries increases, demand for goods and services offered by these two sectors has also increased. In the transportation sector, whenever the demand for oil increases, it means that more people are purchasing cars. In the industrial sector, the increase in demand for oil implies an expansion in operations. An increase follows the expansion in employment opportunities and increased economic output. In both these instances, it is implied that the economy is growing.

Conversely, when the rigs are shutting down, it is usually to avoid overproduction, which might grossly distort the oil prices. This reduction in oil supply could be taken as a sign of a decrease in demand. Based on the top consumers of oil in the US, a decline in the oil demand implies that the economy is contracting.

The US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count can also be used to show periods of economic recession and recovery. Take the example of the recent coronavirus pandemic. The pandemic resulted in nationwide lockdowns and social distancing. Virtually, transportation was halted as the majority of the population opted to work from home. Industries were shut down to depressed demand. This implied that the oil demand plummeted, which was followed by a recession of the US economy.

Source: Trading Economics

When the US economy started resuming some sense of normalcy, we can notice the US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count increasing. This showed that the oil demand was picking up again, which means that transportations and industrial sectors were upping their operations.

Source: Trading Economics

Impact of US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count on the USD

The value of a country’s currency depends on the fundamentals of its economy. Since the US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count can be used as a leading indicator of the US economy, the change in the count impacts the USD.

Theoretically, an increase in the US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count should be accompanied by an appreciating USD. The increasing count signifies that the US economy is expanding. Conversely, a decline in the count means that the US economy is contracting; hence the USD should be expected to depreciate.

Sources of Data

Baker Hughes publishes the US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count report at the end of every working week. Trading Economics has a historical time series data of the US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count.

How US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count Release Affects The Forex Price Charts

The most recent publication was on October 23, 2020, at 1.00 PM EST and accessed at Investing.com. The USD is expected to experience moderate volatility when this report is published.

In the week to October 23, 2020, the number of oil rigs operating in the US was 211, increasing from 205 a week earlier.

Let’s find out how this increase impacted the USD.

GBP/USD: Before US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count Release on October 23, 2020, 
just before 1.00 PM EST

Before the release of the US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count, the GBP/USD pair was trading in a weak downtrend. From the above 5-minute chart, we can observe that the 20-period MA was only slightly dropping.

GBP/USD: After US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count Release on October 23, 2020, 
at 1.00 PM EST

After the release, the pair formed a 5-minute bearish “hammer” candle. Subsequently, the pair traded in a weaker downtrend as the 20-period MA was flattening with candles forming just around it.

Bottom Line

The US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count plays a vital role as a leading indicator of the demand for oil and oil products. As shown by the above analyses, the US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count doesn’t significantly impact the Forex price action.

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Nov 24 – XRP’s Push to $0.9 Manipulated? Ether Breaks $600 on Amazing News

The cryptocurrency sector has spent been in the green overall, with Bitcoin consolidating and altcoins booming. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap is currently trading for $18,364, representing a decrease of 0.36% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum gained 4.23% on the day, while XRP gained a whopping 54.14%.

The cryptocurrency sector has spent been in the green overall, with Bitcoin consolidating and altcoins booming. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap is currently trading for $18,364, representing a decrease of 0.36% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum gained 4.23% on the day, while XRP gained a whopping 54.14%.

The cryptocurrency sector has spent been in the green overall, with Bitcoin consolidating and altcoins booming. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap is currently trading for $18,364, representing a decrease of 0.36% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum gained 4.23% on the day, while XRP gained a whopping 54.14%.

 Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

Stellar 61.98% in the past 24 hours, making it the most prominent daily gainer in the top100. It is closely followed by XRP’s gain of 52.19% and Verge’s 37.77% gain. On the other hand, SushiSwap lost 11.14%, making it the most prominent daily loser. Quant lost 9.44% while Nexo lost 8.27%, making them the 2nd and 3rd most prominent daily losers.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s market dominance has reduced drastically over the course of the day, with its value is currently staying at 60.06%. This value represents a 2.6% difference to the downside compared to the value it had yesterday.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The crypto sector capitalization has increased significantly over the course of the day. Its current value is $562.75 billion, representing a $21.04billion increase compared to our previous report.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

_______________________________________________________________________

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

The largest cryptocurrency by market cap has stayed pretty stable today as it couldn’t break the $18,500 mark. The price has been hovering right under the level for the whole day, and even made a couple of attempts to break it but to no avail. On the other hand, this small zone of resistance and support wasn’t broken to the downside either, as a break below $18,270 could spell a retracement.

This is a prime example of uncertainty due to Bitcoin’s current level (some are taking profits while some are investing). However, trading pullbacks in a bull trend is extremely risky and should be avoided.

BTC/USD 4-hour Chart

Bitcoin’s technicals are divided, with its daily and monthly overviews showing a slight hint of bearishness alongside the bullishness that overwhelms it. In contrast, the 4-hour and weekly overviews are completely bullish.

BTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Price is above its 50-period EMA and at its 21-period EMA
  • Price is at its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (53.88)
  • Volume is average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $18500                                  1: $17,850

2: $19000                                  2: $17,450

3: $19500                                   3: $17,130

Ethereum

With Ethereum’s 2.0 version 0 launch approaching, Ethereum has continued to increase in price. Today’s move was a continuation of the uptrend that started on Nov 0, additionally fueled by the announcement that the deposits required for Ethereum’s 2.0 version 0 to launch have passed the threshold. This news is a big sigh of relief for the ETH devs, as they were wondering if the protocol will reach its goal on time for the Dec 1 launch. This extremely bullish news has pushed Ethereum past $600, which it is now testing.

If Ethereum manages to successfully stay above $600, it will have very little resistance to the upside and basically trade only versus profit-taking sellers.

ETH/USD 1-hour Chart

Ethereum’s 4-hour and monthly time-frames are completely bullish, while its daily and weekly time-frames are slightly more tilted towards the neutral position.

ETH/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical Factors (4-hour Chart):
  • The price is far above its 50-period and slightly above its 21-period EMA
  • Price is between its middle and top Bollinger band
  • RSI is coming out of the overbought territory (59.88)
  • Volume is above average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $600                                     1: $510

2: $630                                     2: $500 

3: $735                                      3: $490

Ripple

The fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap has exploded to the upside and reached over $0.90 on the US cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase only to crash back down by roughly 30% in mere seconds. This was its highest price since May 2018. The rally was apparently driven by the Coinbase users as XRP did not see the same heights on any other exchange. Bitstamp and Binance saw a high of only $0.79.

Analysts believe that this rally is a culmination of an uptrend triggered in late Oct when an anonymous whale sent an astonishing $50 million worth of XRP at the time to Bitstamp. Ever since then, XRP/USD has been seeing a strong uptrend, up by 128.63% in the past week.

Trading XRP is simply impossible at the moment due to the amount of risk associated with this type of volatility.

XRP/USD 1-hour Chart

XRP’s 4-hour and weekly overviews are completely bullish and show no signs of neutrality, while its daily and monthly overviews show slight neutrality or even slight bearishness.

XRP/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • The price is above its 50-period EMA and at its 21-period EMA
  • Price is slightly above its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (53.65)
  • Volume is above average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $0.79                                     1: $0.625 

2: $0.963                                   2: $0.475

3: $1.01                                    3: $0.443

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, November 24 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Consumer Confidence in Focus!

On the news front, the focus will remain on the U.S. Prelim Consumer Confidence and C.B. Leading Index m/m, which are expected to report mixed outcomes and drive choppy movement in the U.S. dollar. Let’s focus on technical levels today.

On the news front, the focus will remain on the U.S. Prelim Consumer Confidence and C.B. Leading Index m/m, which are expected to report mixed outcomes and drive choppy movement in the U.S. dollar. Let’s focus on technical levels today.

On the news front, the focus will remain on the U.S. Prelim Consumer Confidence and C.B. Leading Index m/m, which are expected to report mixed outcomes and drive choppy movement in the U.S. dollar. Let’s focus on technical levels today.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 


 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair closed at 1.18402 after placing a high of 1.19058 and a low of 1.17997. The EUR/USD pair rose to its highest since November 9 and reversed its direction after that, and continued placing losses for the day. The decline in the EUR/USD pair despite the improved risk sentiment was due to the U.S. dollar’s strength. The risk-on market sentiment was supported by the latest optimism from various vaccine developments. In contrast, the strength in the U.S. dollar was derived from better-than-expected U.S. macroeconomic data on Monday.

A British pharmaceutical AstraZeneca announced that its potential vaccine was more than 90% effective in its clinical trials for protecting the coronavirus. The first dosage of its vaccine provides 70% protection, while the second dosage could increase the efficacy rate to 90%.

AstraZeneca also said that it would be cheaper than its rival Pfizer vaccine as it can be stored at refrigerator temperature while Pfizer’s vaccine requires a frozen temperature that could make its cost of distribution higher.

Meanwhile, the risk sentiment was also supported by the reports that the US FDA has approved the antibody-drug used by U.S. President Donald Trump last month during his treatment of coronavirus for emergency use. These optimistic reports gave the EUR/USD pair strength in the earlier session and pushed its prices to their highest since November 9.

On the data front, at 13:15 GMT, the French Flash Services PMI declined to 38.0 against the forecasted 39.2 and weighed on Euro. The French Flash Manufacturing PMI also fell to 49.1 against the projected 50.2 and weighed on Euro. At 13:30 GMT, the German Flash Manufacturing PMI raised to 57.9 against the forecasted 56.0 and supported Euro. German Flash Services PMI remained flat with the expectations of 46.2. At 14:00 GMT, Flash Manufacturing PMI from Eurozone in November raised to 53.6 from the projected 53.2 and supported single currency Euro. Flash Services PMI declined 41.3 against the expected 42.2 and weighed on Euro.

The mixed data from Eurozone related to business activity failed to provide any significant movement in EUR/USD pair while the currency pair followed the U.S. dollar movement after the release of macroeconomic data in the American session.

At 19:45 GMT, the Flash Manufacturing PMI from the U.S. in November rose to 56.7 against the projected 52.5 and supported the U.S. dollar. The Flash Services PMI surged to 57.7 against the projected 55.8 and supported the U.S. dollar. After the release of better than expected Manufacturing and Services PMI, the strong U.S. dollar exerted pressure on EUR/USD pair on Monday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.1855      1.1871

1.1845      1.1877

1.1839      1.1888

Pivot point: 1.1861

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD traded sharply bearish, falling from 1.1866 level to 1.1816 support level, which is extended by double bottom level. Closing of a candle over 1.1816 is supported by bullish correction, but at the same time, the EUR/USD pair may also head further higher until the 1.1866 resistance mark. On the 2 hour timeframe, the EUR/USD pair was supported by an upward trendline, which got violated on Monday, and now the same trendline is supporting EUR/USD pair. Let’s look for a selling trade below the 1.1866 level today. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair closed at 1.33222 after a high of 1.33975 and a low of 1.32636. The British Pound raised to its 10-weeks high level and then gave up some gains against the U.S. dollar in late trading sessions on the back of U.S. dollar strength. The rise in GBP/USD pair came in after the rising optimism over a Brexit deal after the European Commission reportedly told E.U. ambassadors that 95% of a post-Brexit deal had been agreed. The deal might be announced over the coming days to allow sufficient time for ratification by the European Parliament before year-end, possibly just the week after Christmas.

Meanwhile, on the data front, at 14:30 GMT, the Flash Manufacturing PMI from the U.K. raised to 55.2 against the forecasted 50.5 and supported British Pound and supported GBP/USD pair. The Flash Services PMI for November from the U.K. also raised to 45.8 against the forecasted 43.2 and supported British Pound and added gains in the GBP/USD pair.

From the U.S. side, at 19:45 GMT, the Flash Manufacturing PMI from the U.S. in November surged to 56.7 against the anticipated 52.5 and supported the U.S. dollar that capped further gains in GBP/USD pair. The Flash Services PMI rose to 57.7 against the forecasted 55.8 and supported the U.S. dollar, and GBP/USD pair lost some of its gains.

Meanwhile, on Monday, the Governor of Bank of England Andrew Bailey said that the long-term effects of a no-deal Brexit on the economy would be worse than the coronavirus pandemic’s long-term impacts. He added that he was relatively optimistic about the economy’s ability to recover from the coronavirus outbreak, but it would be more difficult to adjust with the U.K. trading with the E.U. on World Trade Organization terms.

These concerns added pressure on risk-on market sentiment and made GBP/USD pair to lost some of its earlier daily losses.

Furthermore, Prime Minister Boris Johnson confirmed that the England lockdown would be lifted on December 2, though regional restrictions would be kept to stop coronavirus spread. The second lockdown miscued the U.K. economy that the economy could slip into a double-dip recession and these concerns also added pressure on the GBP/USD pair that lost some of its earlier daily gains.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.3289      1.3312

1.3274      1.3320

1.3266      1.3336

Pivot point: 1.3297

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD traded bearishly at 1.3290, but it now seems to bounce off over the support area of the 1.3292 level. On the higher side, the pair may go after the resistance level of 1.3394. Over there’s an upward trendline that is supporting Sterling on the 2-hour timeframe. Below the 1.3292 level, the Cable may find support at the 1.3240 level while the RSI and MACD are in support of buying. Thus we should consider taking buying trade over the 1.3292 level to target 1.3394. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair closed at 104.544 after placing a high of 104.635 and a low of 103.681. The USD/JPY pair rose by about 100 pips on Monday after the U.S. dollar became strong across the board. The strength of the greenback was derived from the release of macroeconomic data from the U.S.

At 19:45 GMT, the Flash Manufacturing PMI from the U.S. in November raised to 56.7 against the estimated 52.5 and supported the U.S. dollar. The Flash Services PMI surged to 57.7 against the estimated 55.8 and supported the U.S. dollar that added gains in the USD/JPY pair on Monday.

The better-than-expected U.S. business activity data showed that it was expanded in November at its fastest rate in more than five years and boosted optimism about the U.S. economy’s health that lifted the U.S. dollar, and provided strength to the rising USD/JPY pair.

Other than economic data, the USD/JPY pair was also supported by the market’s rising risk sentiment. The risk sentiment was supported by the latest optimism regarding vaccine developments from different countries. AstraZeneca, the British pharmaceutical, said that its vaccine was 70% effective on the first dosage and 90% effective on the second dosage.

It also reported that it would be cost-effective also as it does not require the frozen temperature to be stored and can only be stored in a refrigerator. These optimistic reports added strength in the risk sentiment and weighed on the safe-haven Japanese Yen that ultimately added strength in the USD/JPY pair.

On Monday, another positive news was that Regeneron’s coronavirus antibody cocktail that President Donald Trump used last month when he was hospitalized with COVID-19 had been approved for an emergency authorization use by the US FDA. There were also reports that the vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNtech will likely be approved by the US FDA by December 11 and will be available for Americans to use.

With more progress in the vaccine area, lifting the lockdown restrictions increased along with the chances for an economic recovery that raised the risk sentiment and weighed on the safe-haven Japanese Yen that added gains in the USD/JPY pair. However, the pandemic hit economy still needs further support from governments to go through the crisis, and that is why investors were hopeful that the Fed and European Central Banks would likely issue more stimulus aid in December. The USD/JPY pair will likely rise as the risk sentiment has been improved after vaccine development progress.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

103.76      103.87

103.69      103.93

103.64      103.99

Pivot point: 103.81

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY has violated a choppy range of 104.056 – 103.667 level. On the higher side, a bullish breakout of 104.056 resistance can extend the buying trend until the next resistance area of 104.59 and 105.063 level. On the lower side, the support continues to hold around 104.056 and 103.667 level. The MACD suggests an overbought situation of the USD/JPY pair; thus, we should look for selling trade below 104.598 and buying above the same. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Course

178. Decoding The COT Report

In the previous lesson, we learned how, where, and when you can access the Commitment of Traders report. In this lesson, we will discuss the elements contained in the COT report. The CFTC prepares four COT report types: the Legacy Report, the Supplemental Report, the Disaggregated Report, and the Traders in Financial Futures report. For forex traders, the Legacy and the Traders in Financial Futures reports are of most importance.

In the previous lesson, we learned how, where, and when you can access the Commitment of Traders report. In this lesson, we will discuss the elements contained in the COT report. The CFTC prepares four COT report types: the Legacy Report, the Supplemental Report, the Disaggregated Report, and the Traders in Financial Futures report. For forex traders, the Legacy and the Traders in Financial Futures reports are of most importance.

In the previous lesson, we learned how, where, and when you can access the Commitment of Traders report. In this lesson, we will discuss the elements contained in the COT report. The CFTC prepares four COT report types: the Legacy Report, the Supplemental Report, the Disaggregated Report, and the Traders in Financial Futures report. For forex traders, the Legacy and the Traders in Financial Futures reports are of most importance.

The Legacy Report
The Legacy report is categorized by different exchanges. Forex traders pay attention to the reports from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The Legacy reports have categories for only futures report and a combination of both futures’ and options report. The open interest positions that are reportable are categorized into two: non-commercial and commercial traders.
The Traders in Financial Futures (TFF) Report

This report contains financial contracts, including the US Treasuries, currencies, the VIX, and Eurodollars. Like the Legacy report, it has two categories; only futures report and a combination of both futures’ and options report. The open interest positions in the TFF report are categorized into four: leveraged funds; dealer/intermediary; asset manager/institutional; and other reportable.

Understanding Terms used in the COT Report

Open Interest: The totality of all futures and options contracts that have not yet been executed but are yet to be offset by exercise, delivery, or transaction.

Reportable Positions: these are open interests that are equal to or exceed the reporting level set by the CFTC. These positions are reported to the CFTC by foreign exchange brokers, futures commission merchants, and clearing members. The reportable positions account for about 70% to 90% of all open interests in a given market.

Nonreportable positions: are calculated by subtracting the reportable positions from the total open interests in a given market. The traders involved in nonreportable positions are unknown, as is their classification on whether they are commercial or non-commercial. These are mainly small-scale retail traders.

Commercial Traders: are traders who participate in the futures and options market to hedge their core business activities. In forex futures, commercial traders seek to offset the risks of the spot market. The CFTC has set the definition that qualifies a commercial trader under Regulation 1.3 (z). Commercial traders do not seek to take possession of the assets underlying a futures contract.

Non-commercial Traders: are also known as large speculators. These traders participate in the futures market primarily as an investment by speculating on price movements. They have no intentions of taking ownership of the underlying asset to profit from the price difference.

Changes in commitments from previous reports: shows the difference between the data in the current and the immediate previous publication of the report.

Number of Traders: show the reportable traders in each category. For each category, a trader is counted if they have an open position. The number of traders in each category can exceed the total number of traders because a single trader can have open positions in different categories.

[wp_quiz id=”89679″]
Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Watchout the Potential Next Rally of GBPAUD

GBPAUD advances on Monday’s trading session in the bullish sentiment zone, testing the resistance level at 1.82688, which corresponds to the extreme bullish zone’s resistance.

GBPAUD advances on Monday’s trading session in the bullish sentiment zone, testing the resistance level at 1.82688, which corresponds to the extreme bullish zone’s resistance.

GBPAUD advances on Monday’s trading session in the bullish sentiment zone, testing the resistance level at 1.82688, which corresponds to the extreme bullish zone’s resistance.

Technical Overview

The following 12-hour chart illustrates the price that reached a new peak in the 90-day range at 1.85272. The cross began to retrace towards the neutral zone at level 1.80104, where the price found support and began to move mainly sideways on the bullish sentiment zone, finding resistance at level 1.82688.

Likewise, it highlights the support’s confirmation in the neutral level of the 90-day range, which leads to the observation of the upward pressure it shows the cross short term. In this context, the GBPAUD cross could experience a new rally that could lead to a test of the psychological resistance level located on 1.8500.

Short-term Technical Outlook

The short-term Elliott Wave graph of the GBPAUD cross unfolded in the following 12-hour chart shows the price action moving in an incomplete wave ((c)) of Minute degree labeled in black, which belong to the fourth wave of Minor degree identified in green.

The big picture reveals the cross is moving in an impulsive descending structure of Minor degree, in green, progressing in its fourth wave. This corrective structural series began last September 11th when the GBPAUD found fresh buyers at 1.74935.

The completion of the internal wave ((a)) at 1.85272 on October 21st and wave ((b)) at 1.79378 on November 09th leads to the anticipation of further upward movements in a five-wave internal sequence corresponding to wave ((c)) identified in black. In this regard, the previous chart shows the price starting to develop its third wave (iii) of Minuette degree, labeled in blue.

In this context, the current upward sequence in development has two potential targets as follows.

  • The first potential target is found in the supply zone between 1.84295 and 1.85272. If the price starts to decline from this zone, this could indicate a dominant bearish pressure that could drag the price toward the last September’s lows zone on 1.7500.
  • The second potential target zone is between 1.87353 and 1.89667, which corresponds with the ascending channel’s upper line. If the GBPAUD cross reaches this zone, this could indicate a dominant bullish pressure, and a correction could likely drive the price to the end of wave ((b)) on 1.7937, where the cross could find fresh buyers.

For the active intraday bullish scenario, the short-term invalidation level is located at 1.79378, which corresponds to the origin of wave ((c)).

Categories
Forex Basic Strategies

Combining The ‘Rail Road’ Trading Pattern With Pivot Points To Generate Accurate Trading Signals

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

In the previous set of articles, we discussed strategies based on most of the technical indicators in forex. But there is one technical indicator that was not covered extensively and, i.e., the ‘Pivot Points’ indicator. Traders do not use it extensively because they don’t know the right way of using it and are not aware of their strength.

Today, we solve this problem by discussing a mostly based strategy on the Pivot Points indicator. By now, we all know that a technical indicator should never be in isolation. Therefore, the ‘Pivot Points’ indicator is combined with some very powerful chart patterns and key technical levels to improve the probability of successful trades.

‘Pivot Points’ are nothing but potential support and resistance levels that will help us determine the same, even it is established. The pivot point’s parameters are usually taken from the previous day’s trading range to calculate today’s pivot points. The simplest way of plotting the pivot point indicator on the chart is by selecting the indicator from the broker’s charting software.

The main pivot point (PP) is the central pivot based on which all other pivot levels are calculated. Calculating the central pivot point is pretty simple. We just have to add yesterday’s high, low, and close and then divide that by 3, a simple average of the high, low, and close. We don’t have to worry about the calculations as the software does all that for us and gives it readymade.

The only thing we have to remember is that if the price is trading above the central pivot point, it signals a bullish trend. If the price is below the central line, it is considered a bearish trend.

Time Frame

The strategy works well on small time frames such as 15 minutes, 3 minutes, and 1 minute. It would not be wrong to classify the above strategy as a ‘Scalping Strategy.’

Indicators

We use just one technical indicator for the strategy and, i.e., ‘Pivot Points.’ We could also use the Simple Moving Average (SMA) to get a clear idea about the market trend.

Currency Pairs

The strategy is only applicable to major currency pairs of the forex market. EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, AUD/USD, EUR/GBP, and NZD/USD are preferred currency pairs.

Strategy Concept

The ‘Pivot Point’ strategy is based on the concept that when price respects any of the support and resistance levels of the ‘Pivot Point’ indicator, they tend to become ‘true’ S/R levels that can be relied upon. When price re-tests these ‘true’ support and resistance levels, it moves in the direction as anticipated. The above logic works greatly in favor of traders and thus increases the probability of making a profit. However, there are some rules we need to follow to execute the above strategy successfully. Let’s discuss these rules in detail.

Trade Setup

To explain the strategy, we will be executing a ‘long’ trade in EUR/USD currency pair using the strategy’s rules. Here are the steps to execute the strategy.

Step 1: Firstly, we have to plot the pivot point indicator on the chart with its default settings. As this is mostly an intraday strategy, we start each day as fresh using the partitions made by the pivot point indicator. The below image exactly shows how the beginning of a new day would look like on the pivot points.

Step 2: Next, we need to wait for the price to touch any support and resistance levels as plotted on the chart by the pivot point indicator. Not all touches are going to be important to us. Only the price touches that cause major price movement in the market will be considered as significant. For instance, if the price touches R1, R2, R3, R4, or R5 and goes down to the central line (PP), this shall be considered ‘true’ resistance. Likewise, if the price touches S1, S2, S3, S4, and S5 and goes back up to the central line, this shall be considered ‘true’ support.

The below image shows how price touches S1 and travels close to the central line. Hence, this can be considered as ‘true’ support. The further price travels, the stronger is going to be the ‘support.’

Step 3: After establishing ‘true’ support and resistance levels, we wait for the price to return to this level and show a suitable price action pattern before we can actually enter into a trade. Once the price touches established ‘support’ or ‘resistance,’ we need to watch for the formation of the ‘Rail-Road Track’ candlestick pattern on the chart. The ‘Rail-Road Track’ is essential because it confirms the respective level. We still don’t enter for a trade. The next step explains the rule of ‘entry.’

Step 4: To be sure that the support or resistance is holding, we enter only after the price starts moving in the direction we expect to move. For example, in the case of ‘true’ support, we enter ‘long’ when the price moves a further higher from the ‘support.’ Similarly, in the case of ‘true’ resistance, we enter ‘short’ when the price moves further lower from the ‘resistance.’

Step 5: In this step, we define the take-profit and stop-loss levels for the trade. The stop-loss is placed below the ‘support’ from where the price had bounced off, in case of a ‘long’ position. On the other hand, it is placed above the ‘resistance’ from where the price had collapsed. The ‘take-profit’ is set at the opposing ‘support’ and ‘resistance’ level as indicated by the pivot point indicator.

Strategy Roundup

The pivot point strategy is like a complementary tool to the traditional S/R strategy that can be used to improve the results. Since we are dealing with really small time frames, the probability of ‘successful trades’ can be ‘low.’ However, that shouldn’t be a concern for us as the risk to reward (RR) of trades executed using the above strategy is above average. This will ultimately put us in a profitable position.

Categories
Crypto Daily Topic

8 Ways to Earn Passive Income with Crypto They Will Never Talk About!

Most people, when asked about ways to make money off crypto, will say trading. Trading is one of the most straightforward and probably the most popular ways to make money with crypto. But there are several other ways to make money with crypto, and most of them are surer bets than trading – by far. 

Most people, when asked about ways to make money off crypto, will say trading. Trading is one of the most straightforward and probably the most popular ways to make money with crypto. But there are several other ways to make money with crypto, and most of them are surer bets than trading – by far. 

Most people, when asked about ways to make money off crypto, will say trading. Trading is one of the most straightforward and probably the most popular ways to make money with crypto. But there are several other ways to make money with crypto, and most of them are surer bets than trading – by far. 

And the good part? You only need to take action and sit back and watch your money grow with some of the ways. And get this: with some ways like staking, the returns are substantially higher than you could ever get with the traditional finance system. Others, like blockchain-based content creation, may require a more hands-on approach but still can be done alongside your daily job or business. 

 With that, let’s get straight to it!

#1. Mining 

In cryptoverse, mining is the process of using computing power to make guesses until you arrive at the correct hash, which then unlocks the next block in a blockchain network. Crypto miners receive crypto rewards for finding blocks and recording them on the blockchain network. You do not have to have crypto holdings to mine crypto. Miners can choose to convert their block rewards to Fiat immediately, HODL them, or plow those earnings back to their mining system. 

When Bitcoin was starting, anyone could mine from the home computer. But as the mining difficulty increased, the average daily computer could no longer hack it. We moved from CPUs to GPUs (some cryptocurrencies can still be mined with GPUs) to ASICs (Application-specific Integrated Circuits). ASICs utilize specific chips tailor-made for a particular cryptocurrency. Some of the most popular cryptocurrencies, i.e., Bitcoin and Ethereum, are mined with ASICs. 

Today, you can find an ASIC miner for an average of $1,000. If you plan to mine crypto, it’s best to join a mining pool. A mining pool is a team of miners who combine their computational resources to stand a better chance of finding new blocks. The block reward is then shared among the participants, depending on their contribution. Due to the combined computational power, miners in a mining pool are more likely to discover new blocks than individual miners. 

Tip: Join a mining pool for better profitability. 

#2. Staking 

One of the more easy-going ways to earn passive crypto income, staking, involves depositing crypto funds to get staking rewards. Staking networks utilize proof-of-stake or related consensus mechanisms, e.g., delegated proof of stake. With staking, mostly what’s required is just holding tokens in your wallet. In other cases, you need to add or delegate the funds to a staking pool. In DeFi pools, staking similarly involves putting up supported cryptos and earning interest.

When you stake in a network, you’re contributing to that network’s security and resilience, hence the reward. Staking is one of the simple ways to multiply your crypto holdings with minimal effort. 

#3. Lending 

Lending is another hands-off method to make money with crypto. There are multiple peer-to-peer lending platforms (Coin Loan, Nexo, BlockFi, Celcius, EthLend, etc.) that allow you to lock up crypto and earn interest in return. Usually, the interest rate is set by the platform or by you based on prevailing market trends. The more you lend, the more you stand to reap. 

#4. Lightning nodes 

The Lightning Network is a layer 2 solution for blockchains such as Bitcoin. It’s an off-chain payment channel that facilitates the processing of transactions without them being transferred to the underlying blockchain. 

When you use the Lightning Network to conduct a transaction, it’s quicker than if done on the blockchain. A network like Bitcoin only allows one-directional transactions. For instance, if Alice sends Bob one bitcoin, Bob cannot use the same channel to send it back to Alice. On the other hand, the Lightning Network utilizes bi-directional channels that require the involvement of both parties. This makes transactions quicker. 

When you run a Lightning node, you have the ability to process a lot of transactions quickly and get rewarded with transactions’ fees. 

#5. Affiliate programs 

Some crypto projects, especially new ones, will usually reward existing participants for bringing new ones to the platform. If you have, let’s say, a huge social media following, affiliate and referral programs can be a great way to earn passive income. Bear in mind that it behooves you to carry out research on any project you promote. 

#6. Masternodes 

A masternode is like a server, except it runs on a decentralized network. Typically, network participants have to put up sizable amounts of investment to become masternodes. Due to the significant investment, masternodes have a big incentive to maintain and secure the network. 

Crypto projects usually give special privileges to participants who have a considerable stake in their networks, in addition to rewarding them with return rates. 

#7. Airdrops

Airdrops are tokens given away for free by crypto projects in an effort to publicize or market themselves by getting people to talk about it. All you need is a wallet address of a particular crypto when the airdrop is taking place. For other projects, you’ll need to register on the project’s website and do things like retweeting posts, leaving comments on social media posts, sharing posts on platforms like WhatsApp, Telegram, and so forth. Also, some exchanges will conduct airdrops for the users occasionally. 

To have a heads up on upcoming airdrops, you should register sites dedicated to spreading the word about the exact matter. Such sites include Airdropaddict, Icodrops, etc. 

Note that receiving an airdrop will never require the sharing of private keys – a condition that is a telltale sign of a scam.

#8. Creating blockchain and crypto-based content 

With the advent of blockchain, previously unexplored modes of content creation and sharing are now possible. Blockchain-powered content platforms like Steemit allow content owners to monetize their work in various ways – and without intrusive ads popping all over. In such platforms, content creators get to own the rights and ownership of their work. Once you create a substantial portfolio of work, you can monetize it over time. 

Final Thoughts 

What’s better than earning passive income is doing so in a safe and secure environment, and that’s what you get with the activities on this list. Whether it’s staking, mining, running a masternode, you can make money from crypto with minimal effort. Of course, always make sure to do your own research before putting your money anywhere. Good luck!