Tag: undelying themes

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Forex Videos

Forex & The Brexit Conundrum – How You Can Trade the Outcome and Make Insane Profits!

https://youtu.be/J_zpi8kpyIo

https://youtu.be/J_zpi8kpyIo


The Brexit Conundrum, how to trade cable?

 

Thank you for joining this forex academy educational video.

In this session, we will be looking at the Brexit conundrum,  where Great Britain, which has left the European Union, will have completed its transition period on the 31st of December, and which this date is enshrined in law, and cannot be moved, unless by an act of legislation, which is completely unlikely, bearing in mind the government’s stance on sticking to this date.

British businesses and Europeans too, are bitterly disappointed that a formal no trade deal has not so far been agreed between the United Kingdom and European Union, where the two sides seem to be at loggerheads over fishing rights,  and the so-called level playing field where the European Union is worried that the United Kingdom might undercut European businesses when the UK forms trade deals with other countries around the world, once the transition period ends.

This affects UK businesses who simply do not know whether they will be levying tariffs against the EU should a free trade deal not be set in place, and whereby they are simply not in a position to know which types of rules and regulations they will be following on the 1st of January 2021.

Rumors and speculation are driving the financial markets, where one moment the two sides are close to implementing a free trade deal, only to be scuppered by officials on either side saying they are still miles apart, but where while there is hope that an 11th-hour free trade deal can be completed. Traders are looking on the positive side, and this is reflected in the British pound, here seen on a one-hour chart of the GBPUSD pair where it is most widely traded.

The swing in price action between positions A B and C is over 400 pips during the 10 days of trading here. These are significant moves. But interestingly, we can see that price is largely conforming to within two key levels, 1.31 and 1.33, with a slight bias to the upside. A and C is a classic double top reversal formation.

Here we have highlighted the pullback from position C to position D, which has respected the 1.3200 line after the pullback. It is a 50% retracement of the earlier move from A to B, and this is significant because traders believe there will be a last-minute attempt to close a free trade deal between the two sides, who are playing this situation like a game of poker, and where neither side wants to be the first one to blink.

So where next for the pound?  Certainly, if a free trade deal is agreed on, the pound should strengthen against the dollar.  Some analysts predict moves of to 1.400, should a free trade deal be agreed on. But price action could revert lower to potentially to 1.2500 should the UK leave on WTO rules.

 

Any trading on the pound should be done with the utmost caution and with tight stops in place. Look out for moves in price action to these key trade levels, which are round numbers, and use them in your trading setup.  Expect volatile price action the longer this is drawn out, bearing in mind two deadlines have already been passed, one being the 15th of October as set down by the British government’s and more recently the middle of November, which were deemed necessary to implement new legislation pertaining to a possible free trade deal.   And wherever possible, instigate break-even stop-outs on your trades.

 

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Forex Videos

Has Time Run Out For The BrexitFuture Trade Deal? GBP On The Ropes!

https://youtu.be/IhX2wZw8DBw

https://youtu.be/IhX2wZw8DBw

Has time run out for the Brexit future trade deal? Where next for the Pound?

Thank you for joining this forex academy educational video.

The British government set itself a deadline of 15th of October with which to had a formal future, a tariff-free trade deal with the EU by the 15th October 2020.
That deadline came and went and was subsequently extended to the 13th of November, where, at the time of writing, no such agreement is in place. The United Kingdom is set to leave the European Union transition period on the last day of 2020. With both the European Union chief negotiator Michael Barnier, and the UK’s chief negotiator on this issue, David frost, both proclaiming that the other side needs to move on key issues such as fisheries, I need a so-called level playing field, it is highly unlikely that a deal can be reached in time I’m for the legal framework to be set in place whereby any such new tariff 3 agreement can be implemented on the 1st day of January 2021.
So, what are the options? The UK government cannot extend the negotiation period because the end of the transition period date is set into law. And so if they will not budge on the requirements and terms of a future trading partnership with the EU, it will appear that the British will be leaving on WTO, or world trade organization, terms, and it is perceived that this would be bad for the British economy, whereby a tariff-free arrangement with the European Union would be in the best interests of both sides because it would offer a smoother, future, trading arrangement.
Let’s have a look at how this is being played out in the forex market, where the most widely traded British pound pair is the GBPUSD.

This is a daily chart for the pair. And we note and expansive bull channel, which has been conforming since the middle of May 2020. This tells us that price action has been fuelled by the potential of a future tariff-free trade deal with the EU. The overall price action has been to the upside. Although this has been waning since early September, such as position ‘A’ and the most recent high was at 1.33.

However, if we bring that daily time frame down to the 4-hour chart, we now see that although price action was waning to the upside at position A on the 1-hour chance, price action for that period has been conforming to an expanding bearish channel on the 4-hour chart.

Now let’s look at what has been happening for the pair are on a 1-hour chart over the last 8 days. Here we can see that price action has been conforming to this triangle where initially we have a bull run up to a peak of just above 1.3300. Since then, price action has been falling lower, to just above 1.3100, and where price action is now conforming to the fundamentals with regard to the potential of a no tariff future trading arrangement deal Brexit.

As time runs out, with no sides giving up any grounds in order to compromise for the sake of a future tariff-free trading relationship, the pair will continue to come under pressure to the downside, in which case the pound is likely to lose value against its counterparts and especially with the United States dollar, notwithstanding the fact that the US economy is suffering because of the covid pandemic and where 150,000 cases were reported in a single day this week, heaping more pressure on the federal government to find fiscal solutions to this problem, which is not going away anytime soon.

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Forex Videos

How Forex traders factor in President Trump – The Enemy Of Predictability!

https://youtu.be/6srucqCYqNg

https://youtu.be/6srucqCYqNg

How do traders factor in President Trump?

 

Thank you for joining this forex academy educational video.
In this session, we will be looking at how President Donald Trump affects the financial markets and what precautions traders have to take since he came to power.
First of all, we need to remind ourselves that President Trump has never been a politician, he has never been a diplomat, and some members of the democratic party in the United States, and a lot of other people besides, might argue that he doesn’t have a diplomatic bone in his body.
President Trump inherited a fortune from his late father and made himself a name in reality TV. He has brought a certain element of reality TV to his presidency. Often his style is considered to be chaotic, argumentative, belligerent. He has been accused of lying, and the democratic party tried to have him impeached halfway through his presidency.

Certainly, there seems to be a great deal of animosity between himself and the speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, who, not happy with losing the opportunity to have him impeached halfway through his term in office, is now working to have him removed from office over concerns about his inability to run the office. Where, under the 25th Amendment, should she succeed, vice president Pence would take over.

This will only serve to cause more friction between the pair. And when Donald Trump’s cage is rattled, he tends to be reactive, which may be causing the delay to the proposed stimulus bill. The longer is stalled, the more it will adversely affect Americans and American companies. The current impasse between the republicans and the democrats is the difference between 1 trillion or 2 trillion dollars. Surely it would make sense to at least start with the smaller of the two amounts and build from there, rather than make people suffer.
And one has to ask if this is a personal vendetta because it certainly seems to be a power struggle. And of course, this is all a part of Donald trump’s leadership style: one day he says there will be a stimulus bill, the next day he says there will not be a stimulus bill until the US Presidential election is over. This, of course, affects the United States stock markets. The knock-on effect is felt by other global markets and numerous assets, including treasuries, bonds, and of course, it is also affecting the United States dollar and every currency traded against the dollar.

But singularly, the most disruptive way that Trump affects the financial markets is his use of Twitter. With a single tweet, Donald Trump can move markets dramatically, where in years past, high-level economic data releases have been subject to an embargo. President Trump will simply issue a tweet at any time he sees fit, the consequences of which can cause the financial markets to suffer extreme volatility, with some traders benefiting and, of course, many others losing money because of this style alone.
And so, if you are relatively new to trading, we suggest you add President Trump to your Twitter feed to keep abreast of his tweets, or better still, only trade when he is in bed asleep. Remember to expect the unexpected from him.

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Crypto Videos

Forex & The Brexit Conundrum!

https://youtu.be/22SAgVdIUJs

https://youtu.be/22SAgVdIUJs

The Brexit Conundrum

 

Thank you for joining this forex academy educational video.

In this session, we will be looking at the Brexit situation and how it is unfolding, and the disparity between the British pound and the FTSE 100 index.
Here is the FTSE 100 index and where we can see 3 peaks that are falling, from a high of 6,500 to the current level, at the time of writing, at 5,960: a gradual trend lower since June 2020

Here is a chart of the British pound against the United States dollar and where we can see during the same time period the pound has been extremely bullish against the dollar from 1.2200 to up to a peak of 1.3400 to its current trading range at 1,3284 at the time of writing.
This tells us a story that the pound is bullish, and this is largely due to US dollar weakness and where traders have been riding the wave upwards, following the trend, in a which has been fairly typical where US dollar weakness has been seen across the board and particularly with the other major currencies. So, we have bad continuing economics from the USA and bad US dollar sentiment.

However, if we revert back to our ftse100 chart, the same sentiments cannot be applied to the British economy, and this is typical because of one reason: fund managers do not act out of sentiment in the same way as currency traders so. Fund managers will typically take a more long-term view, and this, of course, must factor in the Brexit situation. And herein lies our conundrum: one set of traders is buying the pounds, and another set is selling UK equities, and mostly because of the risk of no trade agreement being reached between the European Union and British governments regarding a future trade deal. This has largely been put down to the European Union wanting more leeway regarding fisheries and European fishing vessels being allowed to fish in British waters and also so with regard to standards being maintained across the board between Britain and Europe within the financial services sector and other areas such as food. Both sides have red lines, which neither are prepared to budge from and where there seems to be a breakdown in the negotiations with Michel Barnier and his British government counterpart, David Frost.
Time is of the essence, and it is said that a deal must be reached by the end of October in order for the future trading relationships, including zero tariffs on either side, being implemented. Should an agreement not be reached, Britain will be left to trade outside of Europe on world trading organisation rules, which are not as favourable to Britain as they would be with no tariff arrangement with Europe.

Michel Barnier has made it clear that unless standards are unified across the board, and the UK are willing to move their red lines on fisheries, it could cause trading problems and frictions, even where buy British lorry drivers might not be allowed to pass through Europe.

So, where does this leave things? Pretty much hanging in the air. The strength of the pound belies the uncertainties regarding the future arrangements with the European Union. Both sides are up against it in terms of time, and if neither side will budge, there is a distinct possibility of a no-deal trade arrangement between the two nations.
And so what might we expect? If it comes down to the 11th hour, so to speak, and there is absolutely no trade agreement between Great Britain and the European, the party might be over for the British pound, which could suffer to the downside against counter currencies.
We might also see a further sell-off on the FTSE 100. AS time gets closer, it will be wise for traders to be extremely cautious while trading both of these assets. Incorporate tight stop losses and reduced leverage.

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Forex Videos

Donald Trump v Covid 19 – Forex Trading Tips!

 

 

 

Donald Trump v Covid-19, the fight is on, but how will the markets fare?

All the world’s a stage, wrote William Shakespeare in his comedy; As you like it. And one thing is true. The Donald Trump presidency has been theatre, the like of which we have never seen in politics in the western world. Let’s go back to December 2019; the US economy was buoyant with record employment, record stock market highs, and the US was a few weeks short of signing a massive phase one trade deal with China. Donald Trump was on the cusp of going down as the greatest American President ever, in terms of steering the US to economic glory.
Step forward a few months, and the global Covid-19 pandemic has all but reversed the economic fortunes for the US with massive unemployment, an economy in freefall, instability, and with the presidential elections just a month away, at the time of writing. Donald Trump and his management of the Covid crisis in the US now looks likely to leave a legacy of being one of the worst US presidents ever.


Love him or loathe him, President Trump has been a major critic of the Chinese government, who he blames for what he calls the China virus. He has spewed out vitriol against them in many statements, and this has led to threats of tariffs, sanctions, bans on Chinese companies operating in the US such as tik-tok, WeChat, Huawei for so-called security reasons, and now that he has had a taste of the virus himself, one can only imagine how things might be escalated from here, when and if he recovers.
Many would argue that Donald Trump testing positive for Covid is poetic justice for a man who consistently played down the seriousness of the disease, while criticising people such as his presidential opponent, Joe Biden, for wearing a mask, when he himself often refused to do so. In fact, it was likely that a recent event in the White House Rose Garden, regarding the nominee for the vacant supreme court judge, was very likely a super spreading Covid event, where many members of the Republican team are dropping like flies, as one by one, as they test positive for Covid.
People will say that Donald Trump had it coming, and it was only a matter of time and wonder how on earth the most secure building on earth, the White House, with all of its technology, and private hospital wing, could allow the President and so many of his aides and colleagues to become infected. This was probably down to sheer bloody mindedness by Donald Trump, who just didn’t take the disease seriously enough.


And getting back to the important presidential election on the 3rd of November, everything is now up in the air, with a quarantine of 10 days and a period of convalescence required, should President Trump shake off the disease, bearing in mind he is 74 and overweight and has a gruelling schedule that many much younger men would not be able to cope, with is it likely that he will be fit enough, should he recover, continue with the election campaign?


The financial markets will see great uncertainty regarding the prospect of President Trump returning for a second term to the White House. There are constitutional issues with regard to voting, which is already going on, with many ballot papers already having been returned, and if Donald Trump is not able to stand, questions remain about how that might affect votes for the second in command, Mike Pence. And with Joe Biden leading in the polls, institutional investors will be worried about extra regulations and higher taxes, should he win the presidential election. And with all this uncertainty, we can expect a great amount of volatility in the markets where institutions will be recalibrating their portfolios and where a risk-off event will take place, with stock markets edging lower, if not falling, and a great deal of volatility in the currency space, which might see a dollar resurgence. Because this event is unprecedented, it is really hard to call. But one thing is for sure; we will see extra volatility.

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Forex

Forex & The Covid Exodus Effect

https://youtu.be/WI8BQ6LW_xE

https://youtu.be/WI8BQ6LW_xE

 

The Covid Exodus Effect

While not exactly in biblical proportions, the covid-19 pandemic has had a dramatic effect on people who have been cooped up in lockdown and more worryingly seen the terrible effect of how the virus spreads like wildfire in compacted and highly densely populated areas, such as inner cities.

It is easy to understand how city dwellers who have been restricted to one place for an extended period of time could not wait to rush to the rural areas in the United Kingdom and US for example, where a dramatic increase in people was noted in the numbers wanting to be closer to nature and away from the threat of catching the virus in the city’s.

Buxton lagoon


Many of these were offered a curt, go home, message from local people in villages and areas such as Snowdonia national park and other villages in Wales, where people erected signs telling visitors to return home. Famously, Derbyshire police dyed the Buxton blue lagoon, the colour black to try and deter tourists from visiting.
One of the most concerning aspects of the pandemic was that people were worried there would have be food shortages, however, global supply chains held up remarkably well, and after bouts of panic buying store shelves were quickly replenished, even in rural areas, thus people relaxed about this and went back to their normal level of buying. But the fact that rural areas were not badly affected has given city people more confidence in moving out to the suburbs. After all the virus would appear to be with us for some time, and it is much easier to socially distance in a more rural location than it is living cheek-by-jowl in a city.

Another aspect all over the globe is that people who have been locked up in their apartments and houses have had a chance to think about what is important to them in life, and there is nothing more like being surrounded by sickness and death to make one realise what is important.
And while the technology to enable people to work remotely has been around for many years, employers have been unwilling to implement this style or running their businesses, perhaps because they prefer the face to face working experience, and also so they can keep an eye on their employee’s productivity.

Canary Wharfe

However, the feature of allowing people to work remotely has been largely successful, and where are large institutions such as HSBC in Canary wharf have suggested that there will be a greater move away from insisting that people work in their offices there. Productivity has been up for some firms whose staff have been working remotely, and there are the huge savings that can be made in owning and maintaining commercial properties, or simply selling them or giving up rentals, and no business rates. And although this might have the effect of causing a collapse in the value of commercial properties, there is always the opportunity to convert such buildings into much needed residential homes for those people who do want to remain living in cities.


But this type of thing has been going on for hundreds of years where cities change because of disease: It was the cholera outbreak in the 19th century which claimed the lives of 10,000 people, which brought about the need for a modern sewage system. This may never have been identified without the outbreak.
From the Athens plague in 430 BC and the black death in the middle ages, even through to the more recent Ebola epidemic across sub-Saharan Africa and of course, the currents Covid outbreak, all have brought about changes in the way that people live their lives, they change government policies, transportation, medical research and treatment, the way our children are educated, supply chains, and where many countries, including the USA and UK, are now looking to bring home from overseas productions and third party suppliers, in order to be more self-reliant and all of which has come about due to the Covid virus pandemic.

US HOUSING STARTS


The improvements in housing starts for June in the United States has been put down two people looking to buy and build homes in rural areas. This is seen as the growth aspect to the housing market in the United States right now.
And the same is true in the United Kingdom where estate agents are reporting a surge in the number of would be homebuyers who are looking to move out of city areas into rural or smaller towns. Again, this is pretty much down to the success of home working, which is seen as one of the only positive things to come out of the pandemic, and a need for a better quality of life with less chance of contracting diseases such as Covid.
Here at forex academy, we are also predicting an even greater rise in people looking to trade currencies and crypto coins from home. The timing has never been better. The technology exists, the market has been remarkably unaffected, and has been one of the real winning business to have flourished during this horrendous pandemic.