Tag: trading

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 23 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – U.S. Durable Goods Ahead! 

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.3% to 97.68. The euro slipped 0.4% to $1.1079. The German GfK Consumer Confidence Index slipped to 9.6 for January (9.8 expected) from 9.7 in December.

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.3% to 97.68. The euro slipped 0.4% to $1.1079. The German GfK Consumer Confidence Index slipped to 9.6 for January (9.8 expected) from 9.7 in December.

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.3% to 97.68. The euro slipped 0.4% to $1.1079. The German GfK Consumer Confidence Index slipped to 9.6 for January (9.8 expected) from 9.7 in December.

The British pound was little changed at $1.3004. U.K. House of Commons voted 358 to 234 in support of Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal. 

Regarding U.S. economic data, third-quarter GDP growth was confirmed at an annualized rate of 2.1% on the quarter (as expected). Meanwhile, personal income rose 0.5% on month in November (+0.3% expected) and personal spending grew 0.4% (as expected). Later today, economists expect durable goods orders to rise 1.5% on month in November, while new home sales are anticipated to fall to 730,000 units.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair flashing red and dropped to 1.1080 and failed to extend Friday’s declines from 100- Day Moving Average. As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.1078 and consolidates in the range between the 1.1073 – 1.1083.

At the yearly front, the EUR/USD currency pair has lost a significant part of the gains during the January 2017 – February 2018 period and trading bearish while ending 2019. As of now, the pair is trading near the 1.1082, representing a 3.17% decline on a year-to-date basis. Notably, the pair dropped by 14.14% during 2018.

The greenback strength held ground against the EUR currency over intensifying trade tensions, which pushed Germany to the recession. Besides this, the European Central Bank further delivered the rate cut into the negative territory during September and declared a fresh bond-buying program.

The market is expecting that the EUR/USD currency pair may pick up the strong bullish buying in 2020. Whereas, the continued gains could remain difficult if the Eurozone economic data do not show any substantial progress.

    


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.0974
  • S2 1.1031
  • S1 1.1053

Pivot Point 1.1089

  • R1 1.1111
  • R2 1.1146
  • R3    1.1203

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is trading with the slightly bearish sentiment, and it’s very likely to test the next support area around 1.1110 on the 4-hour chart. The bearish breakout of this level can trigger further selling until 1.1085. Conversely, the bullish bias can lead the EUR/USD to 1.1125 and 1.1160 resistance levels. Let’s wait for the sell trade below 1.1110 today. 

 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair failed to extend its bearish weekly streak despite the United Kingdom’s political uncertainty. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3013 and consolidates in the bearish range between the 1.2990 – 1.3017. Moreover, the cables traders seem to avoid declining political optimism in the United Kingdom.

The British pound was little changed at $1.3004. U.K. House of Commons voted 358 to 234 for Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal.

The United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson succeeded in getting his European Union Withdrawal agreement bill passed from the new Parliament. Whereas, the House of Common has not passed the bill so far, but will have lesser stops considering the Tories majority.

The U.S. Commerce Department will release November durable goods orders (+1.5% on month expected) and new home sales (730,000 units expected). The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago will post November National Activity Index (-0.31 expected).


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2757
  • S2 1.2901
  • S1 1.2955

Pivot Point 1.3044

  • R1 1.3099
  • R2 1.3188
  • R3 1.3331

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD has broken the support mark of 1.3060, and currently, this level is expected to serve as a resistance for the GBP/USD. On the downside, the GBP/USD can exhibit further selling until the next target level of 1.2940.

The RSI and MACD have now crossed over 50 and 0 zone, suggesting odds of a bullish reversal in the GBP/USD pair. Consider staying bullish above 1.2995 and bearish below 1.3100 today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY was broadly flat at 109.44. The USD/JPY currency pair flashing green and picked up the bids to 109.50, mainly due to the United States President Donald Trump Weeknd’s positive comments. The pair also got support from the United States upbeat data, which turned the market risk-on. 

On the Weekend holidays, the United States President Donald Trump said: “We have just achieved progress on the trade deal, and we will be signing it very soon. The same motivates the risk-takers to start the holiday-shortened week on a positive side.

It is worth to mention that the Fridays strong United States GDP hit down the talks of the slowdown. Moreover, the reason behind the greenback strength was the upbeat data from the U.S., including Personal Consumption Expenditure and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

Looking forward, the market traders will take note of the November month U.S. Durable Goods Orders, up for publishing on Monday, to verify the fresh, positive data from the U.S. The report of Durable Goods Orders is anticipated to increase by 1.9% from downwardly revised 0.5% previous.

Besides this, the November month Chicago Fed National Activity Index, as well as New Home Sales, will also entertain traders before spreading the holiday mood. Whereas the activity gauge is anticipated to recover to -0.09 against -0.71 earlier, the housing data could soften to 0.728M against 0.733M prior.


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 108.56
  • S2 108.97
  • S1 109.17

Pivot Point 109.38

  • R1 109.58
  • R2 109.8
  • R3 110.21

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY has already completed the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement around 109.200 level. Now, this level is supporting the safe-haven pair along with an immediate resistance around 109.350. 

The RSI and MACD are suggesting chances of further selling in the USD/JPY pair. The pair may trade bearish below 109.50 to target 109.200 and even below to 108.950 today. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Price-Action Strategies

The H4-H1 Chart Combination Keeps You Busy Even in a sluggish Market

Usually, the Forex market gets sluggish in December. It gets tough for traders to find out a good entry on major charts as far as price action is concerned. However, the H4-H1 chart combination still offers a few entries. In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of an entry based on the H4-H1 chart, which was offered in mid-December 2019.

Usually, the Forex market gets sluggish in December. It gets tough for traders to find out a good entry on major charts as far as price action is concerned. However, the H4-H1 chart combination still offers a few entries. In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of an entry based on the H4-H1 chart, which was offered in mid-December 2019.

Usually, the Forex market gets sluggish in December. It gets tough for traders to find out a good entry on major charts as far as price action is concerned. However, the H4-H1 chart combination still offers a few entries. In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of an entry based on the H4-H1 chart, which was offered in mid-December 2019.

Let us proceed.

We’re looking at the H4 chart. The last candle makes a strong breakout at the last swing low. Traders are to wait for consolidation and H1 breakout to go short on the pair. Let us find out whether it starts consolidating from right there or comes further down.

It comes down further for one more candle. It means traders are to wait longer. However, the nearest support is far enough. Thus, the price has a lot of space to travel towards the South.

The price starts consolidating and produces two bullish candles consecutively. The pair is to make a big decision from here. Does it continue its journey towards the North, or does it find its resistance nearby? Let us find out from the next chart.

The price finds its resistance and produces a bearish engulfing candle. The sellers have been waiting for this. It is time for the traders to flip over to the H1 chart and wait for an H1 bearish breakout to take a short entry. Let us find out how the H1 chart looks.

The H1 chart shows that the price produces an engulfing bearish candle and heads towards the South. The price on this chart makes a breakout at the red marked support level. It may make the traders wait for, or it may make a breakout straightway. Let us what the price does here.

The price makes an explicit bearish breakout. The breakout candle looks very strong, barely having a lower shadow. A short entry may be triggered right after the candle closes by setting Stop Loss above the level where the H4 chart produces the bearish reversal candle. Let us now find out how it ends.

The price heads towards the South with good bearish momentum. It produces a bullish engulfing candle having a long upper shadow. It may be time for the sellers to close the whole entry since it is the month of December.

As mentioned, in December, traders do not get as many entries as they usually get. However, the H4-H1 chart combination may offer a few entries occasionally even when the market gets sluggish.

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Forex Daily Topic Point and Figure

Point & Figure: Profit Target and Stop-loss Settings Made Simple

 

 

Something new traders struggle with is trying to find appropriate profit targets and stop targets. Point & Figure charts make a process that is a struggle into something that is very, very easy. Two methods can be used to identify profit targets on a Point & Figure chart: Vertical Method and Horizontal Method. I am only going to show you the Vertical Method because the entire series I’ve done here has strictly been on the use of 3-box reversal Point & Figure charts.

The Horizontal Method can be found in Jeremy Du Plessis’s work. The Horizontal Method is more applicable to the most traditional form of Point & Figure – the 1-box reversal chart. There’s a formula for calculating the profit target on Point & Figure. Don’t get freaked about the word formula – the process is very simple.

Long Profit Target
Long Profit Target

Buy/Long Profit Target = (number of Xs in prior column * box size) * (reversal amount) + lowest O of the current O column.

Short Profit Target
Short Profit Target

Short Profit Target = (Number of Os in prior column * box size) * (reversal amount) – highest X of the current X column.

 

Stops

Regarding stops, I always stick with the reversal amount – so my risk is always, no matter the trade, 3-boxes worth. On my standard 20-pip box size Point & Figure charts, 60 pips are my max loss on any trade. Some authors suggest putting the stop one box below (or above) the reversal amount, but I’ve always stuck with the reversal amount being my stop.

The Blind Entry Trading System

I want to tell you something that might be a little mind-boggling. I’ve been teaching Point & Figure to another class this year, and we’ve focused on live testing the ‘blind entry’ trading strategy in Point & Figure – which is nothing more than taking every single multiple-top or multiple-bottom break without any other filter. We focused on the following pairs:

GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD, USDJPY, GBPJPY, EURGBP, EURUSD, and AUDJPY.

We did not use any profit targets. We exited trades only when the reversal column appeared. So our losses were always limited to just 60 pips on a 20-pip/3-box reversal Point & Figure chart. We traded from March 1st, 2019 through December 7th, 2019. The results below detail the net pips at the end of our trading period:

GBPUSD = +1,060 pips

AUDUSD = -60 pips

USDCAD = +200 pips

UDSJPY = +1060 pips

GBPJPY = + 2,620 pips

EURGBP = +480 pips

EURUSD = -280 pips

AUDJPY = +1,200 pips

Net Total pips = +6,280 (the average for the class was +5443 pips).

To put that into perspective, with a 0.1 (10,000 unit) Lot size, that’s a net $6,280.00. A full Lot would have equaled a net $62,800. I had one woman who traded an odd 3.33 Lots as her standard position size (I guess it is not that odd if you think about it). She led the pack with her real net pip count at +6,880 – with a 3.33 lot size that meant she made a net $229,104. I was and remain very envious of her performance – she should probably be teaching!

Sources:

Dorsey, T. J. (2013). Point and figure charting: the essential application for forecasting and tracking market prices (4th ed.). Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons.

Kirkpatrick II, C. D., & Dahlquist, J.R. (2016). Technical Analysis: The Complete Resource for Financial Market Technicians (Third). Old Tappan, NJ: Pearson.

Plessis, J.J. (2012). Definitive Guide to Point and Figure – a comprehensive guide to the theory (2nd ed.). Great Britain: Harriman House Publishing.

DeVilliers, V., & Taylor, O. (2008). Point and figure charting. London: Financial Times/Prentice Hall.

Categories
Forex Course

37. Types Of Brokers in the Foreign Exchange Market

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

If you can recall, we have discussed a bit about Forex brokers in course 1.0. Here is the link for that article. There we have discussed the brief history and introduction to brokers. We recommend you to have a quick look at that article to get a better understanding of Forex brokers. In this article, let’s discuss the two different types of brokers.

Forex brokers can be mainly be classified into two types:

  • Dealing Desks (DD)
  • No Dealing Desks (NDD)

What is a Dealing Desk broker?

Dealing Desk brokers are the Forex brokers who make money through spreads. Also, they are the ones who provide liquidity to the clients. Hence, these brokers are also referred to as Market Makers. The specialty of these brokers is that they can literally make the market for their clients. This is because they usually take the other side of the clients’ trade. So does this mean that brokers take every price the client requests? Well, that’s not the case. They set both sell or buy quote, which is offered to the clients.

While trading with Dealing Desk brokers, the clients cannot see the real interbank market rates. However, as there is always stiff competition between brokers, the rates provided by the Dealing Desk brokers are close or sometimes the same as the interbank rates. Hence, the exchange rates are not a matter of concern.

Working of Dealing Desk brokers

Comprehending the working of Dealing Desk brokers is quite simple. Let’s say that a trader wants to buy one standard lot (100,000 units) of USD/CAD with a Dealing Desk broker. Once the request for a buy is sent to the brokers, the following are the scenarios that take place.

Firstly, to fill the order, the broker will try to match the order with their other clients who are willing to sell at that price. If they do not find any sell order, they route the trade to its liquidity providers, a sizeable entity who is always on the go to buy or sell a financial asset.

However, still, if there are no matching orders, they end up taking the opposite of the trader’s trade.

What is a No Dealing Desk broker?

As the name pretty much suggests, these are the set of brokers who do pass their clients’ orders through a Dealing Desk. Meaning, they do not take the opposite trade of their clients. To put it in simple words, No Dealing Desk brokers act like bridge builders. They simply link two different trading parties.

Since these brokers connect the clients directly through the Interbank Market (Banks, Hedge Funds, Mutual Funds, etc.) they usually charge some commission from the clients, or they slightly increase the spreads.

This completes the lesson on types of brokers. And in the next lesson, we shall do a comparison between these two brokers to give you an idea of which broker one must choose. Don’t forget to take the quiz below before you go.

[wp_quiz id=”53810″]
Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Dramatic Dip in Crude Oil – Bullish Channel Breakout 

During the European session, the WTI crude oil prices were unchanged near the 3-months highs due to optimism surrounding the United States and China trade deal that has left an impact on the oil demand as well as the global economic growth outlook.

During the European session, the WTI crude oil prices were unchanged near the 3-months highs due to optimism surrounding the United States and China trade deal that has left an impact on the oil demand as well as the global economic growth outlook.

During the European session, the WTI crude oil prices were unchanged near the 3-months highs due to optimism surrounding the United States and China trade deal that has left an impact on the oil demand as well as the global economic growth outlook.

The WTI crude oil has dropped dramatically from 61.01 to 60.35 level upon the bearish breakout of the bullish channel and bearish fundamentals. 

It should be noted that the improvement in an 18-months trade war between the United States and China, the world’s two biggest oil consumers, had raised expectations for higher energy demand next year.

China on Thursday declared a list of import tariff exemptions for six oil and chemical products from the United States, days after the world’s two largest economies announced an incomplete trade deal. 

As a result, U.S. Oil is facing intense bearish pressure. What’s next? The technical side of the market is likely to extend support around 60.30, and below this, the black crack can drop until 59.65 support zone. 


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 59.65
  • S2 60.35
  • S1 60.71

Pivot Point 61.04

  • R1 61.4
  • R2 61.74
  • R3 62.44

The RSI and MACD have entered the selling zone, and demonstrate strong bearish bias among traders. As we can also see, the upward channel which supported the oil around 61 has already been violated, and now 61 is likely to work as resistance for crude oil. Consider trading bearish below 60.74 today and buying above 59.65. All the best!

Categories
Forex Daily Topic Forex Price-Action Strategies

Daily-H4 Combination – Rather Mechanical than Emotional

 

 

 

In today’s article, we are going to demonstrate an example of a daily chart, which after having a bounce at Double Bottom support heads towards the North. However, the question is whether the daily-H4 chart combination traders find an entry or not. Let us find this out.

The chart shows that the price has had several bounces at the level of support. Without any doubt, it is a strong level of support, in which buyers would love to keep an eye on the price action around this level. A bullish reversal candle around this level, like the last one, would make them flip over to the H4 chart to go long upon breakout. We are not flipping over to the H4 chart right now. You find out the reason in a minute.

The price on the H4 chart may have consolidated but never made any breakout on the following day. The candle is called Bearish Harami. Usually, it attracts buyers. However, the daily resistance is not too far, so the buyers may not be interested in buying the pair on the daily chart.

As expected, intraday sellers pushed the price down. Then, a bullish engulfing candle forms right at the level of support. The daily-H4 combination traders are to flip over to the H4 chart. Let us flip over to the H4 chart and find out how it looks.

The chart looks bullish, but the momentum is not there. The level of resistance is far enough, which suggests that there are still some pips for the buyers to grab. The buyers are to wait for consolidation and an upside breakout to go long on the pair.

The next candle comes out as a bullish candle too. The price has covered some distance. This means the price is offering less number of pips. However, if it consolidates from right there, the buyers would still be offered a good risk-reward. Let us proceed to the next chart.

The price keeps heading towards the North. It does not offer an entry. Moreover, it even makes a breakout at the level of resistance. This means the level of support has been working with command. Matter of regret, the daily-H4 chart combination traders have not been able to take an entry in such a strong bullish market.

When things go like this, it annoys us. This is obvious. After all, we are the human being, not a machine. The thing is we often have to deal with things like a machine in the Forex market. It is hard and needs someone to be mentally strong. Whatever it is, we must work towards it.

 

Categories
Crypto Videos

Cryptocurrency Exchanges – Beginners Edition

https://youtu.be/WIUb8AMhY8w

https://youtu.be/WIUb8AMhY8w

 

Cryptocurrency exchanges – beginners edition
What are cryptocurrency exchanges?

Cryptocurrency exchanges are platforms that offer their users to buy, sell, or exchange cryptocurrencies for other digital currencies or fiat currencies like the US dollars or Euro. Crypto enthusiasts that want to trade professionally will most likely need to use an exchange that requires ID verification and opening an account. On the other hand, if you just want to make an occasional trade, there platforms that don’t require an account or any form of verification.

Things to look out for before joining an exchange
It’s important to do a little research before you start trading on a specific exchange. These are a few things that you should check before making your first trade on an exchange:
Reputation – Exchanges are extremely public, which means that the best way to find out if an exchange is legit is to search the reviews from individual users as well as well-known industry websites. On top of that, you can ask any questions regarding these exchanges on forums such as BitcoinTalk or Reddit.

Fees

Most exchanges have an information page on their websites, which lists the exchange fees. Before joining any specific exchange, make sure you understand what the deposit, transaction, and withdrawal fees are. Fees may differ substantially from one exchange to another.

Payment Methods

Exchanges can differ greatly in terms of what payment methods they support. They can accept credit & debit cards, wire transfer, PayPal, etc. If an exchange has limited payment options, it may not be as convenient for everyone to use. Purchasing cryptocurrencies through a credit card will always require an ID check. It will also come with a premium price since credit cards carry a higher transaction and processing fees. Purchasing cryptocurrency via a wire transfer will take more time as it takes time for banks to process.

Verification Requirements

The majority of trading platforms and exchanges require some sort of an ID check in order to make deposits & withdrawals. However, some exchanges will allow you to remain anonymous. The verification can take up to a few days, but it protects you from most forms of fraud.

Geographical Restrictions

Exchanges may offer their services to the whole world or just a part of it. Some specific user functions may only be accessible from certain countries. Make sure the exchange of your choice allows full access to all platform tools and functions to the residents of your country.

Exchange Rate

Exchanges may vary slightly in exchange rates. Shopping around may save you a lot of money in the long term. It’s not uncommon to see the rates fluctuate up to 10% between exchanges, as the prices are dictated by the supply and demand of that particular exchange.


Conclusion

Cryptocurrency exchanges are a valuable addition to the cryptocurrency space, which would not function efficiently without them. However, not all exchanges are made equal. Make sure to check every aspect of an exchange before deciding to join and trade on it.

 

Categories
Forex Videos

Forex Trading Psychology Part 3 – Winner’s Have To Learn To Lose

https://youtu.be/1einwnNxdrM

https://youtu.be/1einwnNxdrM

Get your head straight Session Three


In sessions one and two, we talked about the importance of having a quiet working environment, at least two 15 inch or larger computer screens, and keeping up to date with economic data releases. And also to be realistic and not expect every trade to be a winner.
The one area of trading that hardly any new trader takes into consideration is the emotional roller coaster that the stresses of trading can cause a person to go through. When it comes to trading with real hard cash, winning trades can be quite euphoric, especially when a trader starts to see consistent winning trades ramping up their profit and loss. However, losing trades, or going into a drawdown, can cause a lot of stress and anxiety during trading. When traders let losing trades run overnight, it can cause sleepless nights. We all know that our performance will suffer when we do not sleep properly. A lack of sleep can cause poor judgment when it comes to trading.


And so when it comes to trading, people must ask themselves in the first instance; am I the type of person who can handle being on an emotional roller coaster? There is nothing quite like trading when it goes your way and where you are making money consistently. But when it goes wrong, the stress piles on and causes you to make more and more mistakes. You might have a natural inclination to double up when suffering losing trades because most people will chase losses. This is a fairly natural phenomenon, but it is gambling and not trading.
Professional traders set stop losses, so they will know what their losses are going to be on every trade and do not let losses run on and on, they only do that with their winning trades.
Losses can cause traders to feel frustrated and angry, and quite often, they may feel that they want to do nothing and hope that a bad will position will come back online. This is called burying your head in the sand and not facing the consequences of your actions.
The absolute best way to mitigate these issues, in order to keep your emotions in check, is to invest your time in Forex education. Because the more you know about this market, the less likely you are to make mistakes. Here at Forex.Academy, we have all the educational modules you will need, and they are freely available at your disposal.

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 20 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – GDP Figures in Highlights! 

On the forex front, the British pound slid 0.5% to a two-week low of $1.3017, posting a three-day decline. Official data showed that U.K. retail sales dropped 0.6% on month in November (+0.2% estimated), falling for a fourth straight month–the worst run since 1996. On the other hand, the Bank of England held its benchmark rate at 0.75% unchanged as expected.

On the forex front, the British pound slid 0.5% to a two-week low of $1.3017, posting a three-day decline. Official data showed that U.K. retail sales dropped 0.6% on month in November (+0.2% estimated), falling for a fourth straight month–the worst run since 1996. On the other hand, the Bank of England held its benchmark rate at 0.75% unchanged as expected.

On the forex front, the British pound slid 0.5% to a two-week low of $1.3017, posting a three-day decline. Official data showed that U.K. retail sales dropped 0.6% on month in November (+0.2% estimated), falling for a fourth straight month–the worst run since 1996. On the other hand, the Bank of England held its benchmark rate at 0.75% unchanged as expected.

The European Commission will release the eurozone’s December Consumer Confidence Index (-7.0 expected). In Germany, the GfK Consumer Confidence Index for January will be published (9.8 expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair exhibit bearish bias to hit the low level of 1.1117 from the Tuesday high of 1.1175 ahead of United States data release. At the moment, the EUR/USD pair is currently trading at 1.1116 and consolidates in the range between the 1.1114 – 1.1126. The pair has dropped but still staying inside the one-week-old symmetrical triangle.

The EUR/USD currency pair’s weekly candle now has a long upper shadow, which is a significant clue of bulls losing steam above the resistance of the trendline dropping from September 2018 and June 2019 highs.

The currency pairs trendline resistance is currently seen at 1.1148. The pair had increased to a high of 1.1175 previously but dropped again below 1.1148 on the next day. As a result, the consecutive failure of buyers to beat the convincing break above the trendlines has supported the negative risks, which may increase if the United States data ignore past expectations. The data is scheduled to release today.

If the personal spending and Core PCE release unexpectedly come out better, they will validate the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to pause the rate cuts and push the greenback higher.

On the other hand, a big miss may fuel the greenback sell-off. Looking forward, the EUR/USD currency pair will turn bullish mainly if the pair beats the weekly close above the trendline hurdle at 1.1148.

    

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.1108
  • S2 1.1112
  • S1 1.1114

Pivot Point 1.1116

  • R1 1.1118
  • R2 1.112
  • R3 1.1124

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

On Friday, the EUR/USD continues to trade mostly sideways, while investors await the U.S. GDP figures. The EUR/USD is trading with slightly bearish sentiment, and it’s very likely to test the next support area around 1.1110 on the 4-hour chart. 

The bearish breakout of this level can trigger further selling until 1.1085. Conversely, the bullish bias can lead the EUR/USD to 1.1125 and 1.1160 resistance levels. Let’s wait for the sell trade below 1.1110 today. 

 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair hit the bullish track and recovered to 1.3020, mainly due to optimism surrounding the Brexit due to the voting on the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s WAB. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3022. The GBP/USD traders seem confident ahead of the House of Commons voting on the UK PM’s Brexit bill.

The European Union Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB) will allow the United Kingdom to leave the European Union on January 31 while it’s also arranging the stage for no transition period beyond December 2020. The bill will also allow more British judges to leave from the previous rulings of the European Union’s top court.

The U.K. Office for National Statistics will release final readings of third-quarter GDP (+1.0% on-year expected), current account (15.5 billion pounds deficit expected), and November public sector net borrowing excluding banking groups (6.1 billion pounds expected).

The voting result will be released at 15:00 GMT on Friday. Traders will likely watch the final figures of the United Kingdoms’ 3rd-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for new directions. According to the forecast, there will no change in the GDP figures on QoQ and YoY basis that are 0.3% and 1.0%, respectively.

Daily Support and Resistance

 

  • S3 1.2757
  • S2 1.29
  • S1 1.2955

Pivot Point 1.3044

  • R1 1.3098
  • R2 1.3188
  • R3 1.3331

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD has broken the support mark of 1.3060, and currently, this level is expected to serve as a resistance for the GBP/USD. On the downside, the GBP/USD can exhibit further selling until the next target level of 1.2940.

The RSI and MACD have now crossed over 50 and 0 zone, suggesting odds of a bullish reversal in the GBP/USD pair. Consider staying bullish above 1.2995 and bearish below 1.3100 today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY closed at 109.366 after placing a high of 109.685 and a low of 109.180. Overall the trend for USD/JPY on Thursday remained bearish after the Bank of Japan kept its rates unchanged on Thursday at minus -0.1% the pair USD/JPY dipped in the financial market. 

The BOJ voted 7 to 2 to keep its short-term interest rates at -0.1% and the long-term rates at 0%. According to the Central Bank of Japan, the economy was likely to continue on a moderate expanding trend. The impact of the global economic slowdown on domestic demand was expected to be limited in the future. Although the fears of global economic slowdown still prevail in the market.

Recently, the government of Japan implemented a $122B fiscal stimulus package to aid economic growth. Japanese debt levels highly criticized this idea, but it was a wise decision as the government implemented a consumer tax hike after that.

The global economic outlook was raised after the phase-one deal between the U.S. & China and the victory of Johnson in Britain elections. Bank of Japan revised its GDP forecast for next year to 1.4% from the previous prediction of 1.2%.

The positive gestures and statements in Bank of Japan’s monetary policy statement on Thursday weighed on USD/JPY prices.

Adding in the downward trend of pair USD/JPY was the U.S. economic data that day. At 18:30 GMT, the Current Account Balance for the 3rd Quarter of the U.S. declined to -124B from -122B expectations. The Unemployment claims from last week surged to 234K from expected 225K. The C.B. Leading Index also fell to 0.0%, and the Existing Home Sales dropped to 5.35M from 5.44M of expectations.

On the other hand, the U.S. House of Representatives voted in favor of passing the impeachment of Donald Trump and made him third U.S. president to be impeached. However, the U.S. Senate of Republicans is still to vote on this, and it is expected that they will not vote against Trump.

Daily Support and Resistance    

  • S3 108.56
  • S2 108.97
  • S1 109.17

Pivot Point 109.38

  • R1 109.58
  • R2 109.79
  • R3 110.21

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY has already completed the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement around 109.200 level. Now, this level is supporting the safe-haven pair along with an immediate resistance around 109.350. 

The RSI and MACD are suggesting chances of further selling in the USD/JPY pair. The pair may trade bearish below 109.50 to target 109.200 and even below to 108.950 today. 

All the best!

Categories
Point and Figure

Point & Figure: Applied Trading Strategies and Theory

Of all the chart styles and trading styles I’ve used in my years of trading, Point & Figure is by far the least stressful and most profitable I’ve ever used. Point & Figure, for a trader, I believe, is the most stress-free form of charting available.

Bearish Catapult Pattern
Bearish Catapult Pattern

Of all the chart styles and trading styles I’ve used in my years of trading, Point & Figure is by far the least stressful and most profitable I’ve ever used. Point & Figure, for a trader, I believe, is the most stress-free form of charting available.

Of all the chart styles and trading styles I’ve used in my years of trading, Point & Figure is by far the least stressful and most profitable I’ve ever used. Point & Figure, for a trader, I believe, is the most stress-free form of charting available.

There is no need for economic reports or balance sheets. Point & Figure is concise, logical, and it eliminates guesswork and emotion. It is the most scientific and fact-based chart form. From an analysis perspective, I believe chart forms that include time, volume, and price are superior to Point & Figure (Japanese Candlesticks and American Bar Charts). From a trading perspective, Point & Figure is superior to all. I believe this because trading is an emotional career, and the more we can filter out the stimuli that cause emotional reactions, the better traders we become.

This section will review common patterns and strategies for Point & Figure charts. These are limited to 3-box reversal charts. I have debated whether to write about 1-box and 2-box reversal charts, but I have decided against it. The reason is that I do not use them, I stick with 3-box reversal charts only for Forex markets.

The following are chart patterns, as described in the books I’ve identified as sources at the end of these articles. Many of these patterns I’m going to show are from Dahlquist and Kirkpatrick’s phenomenal book, Technical Analysis – The Complete Resource for Financial Market Technicians (3rd Edition). If you want to get an understanding of how vital and powerful Point & Figure is, compare the size of the Point & Figure chapter against all the other sections in that book (consequently, that book is part of the required reading for the CMT certification.

I have ping-ponged the idea of skipping some of the patterns in Dahlquist’s and Kirkpatrick’s book because some of the patterns were determined to be ineffective in their cited research. The sources Kirkpatrick and Dahlquist’s reference showed pattern results in equity markets. Equity markets and Forex markets are not the same, so while some of the patterns described in Technical Analysis indicate they should be ignored, I am going to include them because they may work better in Forex markets. You will find this a constant throughout technical analysis literature: the positive expectancies of patterns, strategies, and theories have almost exclusively been tested in equity markets.

 

Trap Patterns

I am starting off our study with a pattern that you will frequently encounter. Trying to avoid them is near impossible, but because losses are extremely limited in Point & Figure, even successive traps generate minimal losses compared to gains. But I believe it is imperative to understand that traps do occur, they can be frequent, and you will have to get used to them. There are two types of traps, bull traps, and bear traps. Traps occur when a breakout from a multiple top or bottom creates an entry, but price changes direction, and the next column generates a trade entry on the opposite side of the trade.

Bull Trap Pattern
Bull Trap Pattern

Bull Trap: Bull traps occur when price breaks a multiple top and creates a buy entry, but then the X column reverses to an O column that creates a new short entry.

Bear Trap Pattern
Bear Trap Pattern

Bear Trap: Bear traps occur when price breaks a multiple bottom and creates a short entry, but then the O column reverses to an X column that creates a new buy entry.

 

Rising Bottoms

Rising Bottoms Pattern
Rising Bottoms Pattern

A rising bottom pattern may look like a regular double top pattern, but it is different. It is different because of the columns of Os in this pattern. The Rising Bottoms pattern has at least four columns with sequential higher lows. The last O column must have a higher low than the first column of Os, and the previous X column must have a higher low than the first X column. The long entry occurs when the double top is broken.

 

Declining Tops

Declining Tops Pattern
Declining Tops Pattern

The Declining Tops pattern is the inverse of the Rising Bottoms pattern. The Declining Tops pattern has at least four columns with sequential lower highs. The last X column must have a lower high than the first column of Xs, and the previous O column must have a lower high than the first O column. The short entry occurs when the double bottom is broken.

 

Split Tops and Bottoms

Split Bottom Pattern
Split Bottom Pattern
Split Top Pattern
Split Top Pattern

Split Tops and Bottoms generally occur in the form of Split Triple Tops and Split Triple Bottoms. Split Tops and Bottoms have a ‘gap’ in between the tops and bottoms. How many columns do you consider in the formation of a Split Top or Bottom? It is generally believed that 6 to 10 columns are appropriate for finding Split Tops and Bottoms. We trade Split Tops and Bottoms patterns the same way we trade any other multiple top or bottom.

 

Triangles

Triangles
Triangles

Triangles are common patterns you will find on Point & Figure charts. But it is important to remember that just because price breaks through a triangle, that doesn’t mean that we take an immediate entry on the break – we still have to wait for a multiple top or bottom to be broken.

 

Catapults

Bullish Catapult Pattern
Bullish Catapult Pattern

Catapults can be a somewhat confusing pattern, but they are compelling. The Catapult Pattern was one of the few patterns in Technical Analysis that generate equally positive returns on the short side of equity markets as it did on the long side. The strength of these patterns is related to the psychological component of trading. Catapults generally show up after a trendline break or after multiple top or bottom (at least a triple top/bottom or a split triple top/bottom). Catapults are most often pullback/throwback trades, and that is why they are so powerful.

 

Spike Patterns

Bearish Spike Pattern
Bearish Spike Pattern
Bullish Spike Pattern
Bullish Spike Pattern

Spike Patterns (along with Pole Patterns) are the only patterns that have a small amount of subjectivity and interpretation. Even Dalquist and Kirkpatrick could not identify consensus from other Point & Figure experts on what constitutes a Spike Pattern. A spike pattern is a massive column that is around 15 to 20 boxes in length. This is my absolute favorite pattern because it has such an enormous reward and minimal risk. This is also only one of two patterns (the other being the Pole Pattern), where the entry does not require a multiple top or bottom. Spike patterns are entered immediately on the reversal column.

 

Pole Patterns

Pole Pattern
Pole Pattern

Pole patterns are hands down the most subjective pattern in Point & Figure. The problems with identifying with what qualifies as a Pole comes down to broad interpretation. A Pole is very much like a Spike Pattern in that it’s a substantial column, but it is smaller than a Spike. Poles are any column that is less than sixteen boxes but also more significant than ‘normal’ size columns. One of the identifying factors of a Pole Pattern is the same as a Spike Pattern: they show up at the end of swings. Trading a Pole Pattern is relatively simple. All we do is measure the length of the Pole with a Fibonacci retracement tool (doesn’t matter where you start) and then enter long or short when price moves beyond the 50% level.

 

 

Sources:

Dorsey, T. J. (2013). Point and figure charting: the essential application for forecasting and tracking market prices (4th ed.). Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons.

Kirkpatrick II, C. D., & Dahlquist, J.R. (2016). Technical Analysis: The Complete Resource for Financial Market Technicians (Third). Old Tappan, NJ: Pearson.

Plessis, J.J. (2012). Definitive Guide to Point and Figure – a comprehensive guide to the theory (2nd ed.). Great Britain: Harriman House Publishing.

DeVilliers, V., & Taylor, O. (2008). Point and figure charting. London: Financial Times/Prentice Hall.

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Gold’s Ascending Triangle Intact – Investor Awaits Fundamentals! 

On Thursday, the precious metal gold prices inched up to trade around 1,476 after the U.S. House of Representatives chose to challenge President Donald Trump on articles of misuse of authority and obstruction of Congress.    

On Thursday, the precious metal gold prices inched up to trade around 1,476 after the U.S. House of Representatives chose to challenge President Donald Trump on articles of misuse of authority and obstruction of Congress.    

On Thursday, the precious metal gold prices inched up to trade around 1,476 after the U.S. House of Representatives chose to challenge President Donald Trump on articles of misuse of authority and obstruction of Congress.    

Impeachment is a two-way process where the removal of a sitting president is decided. In the first stage, the majority of the Democrats will be needed to support the move. If that passes, then a trial would be held in U.S. Senate, which will be dominated by Republicans. 

For that, 2-3rd would have to vote in favor, which is highly unlikely to happen. But if it did happen, Donald Trump would be forced from the White House.

The U.S. Dollar Index advanced to a fresh weekly high near 97.50, which also helped gold prices to gain a slightly bullish trend. Lack of any macroeconomic data left the movement of pair XAU/USD dependant on the technical changes and political news. 

On Friday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish the Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) along with the Personal Consumer Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. 

Gold – XAU/USD – Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance 

1,460.28   1,483.1

1,450.74   1,496.37

1,427.92   1,519.18

Pivot Point 1,473.55

Technically, the yellow metal gold has extended an ascending triangle pattern, which is holding the XAU/USD sustained above 1,470 level. A bearish violation of this level of 1,470 can drive additional selling until 1,462. However, no vital drift isn’t anticipated until the release of UoM Consumer Sentiment on Friday. On the upper side, 1,480 is likely to be the resistance for gold. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Videos

Forex Trading Psychology Part 2 – Winner’s Have To Learn To Lose

https://youtu.be/0ZOUpTZl-cE

https://youtu.be/0ZOUpTZl-cE

Trading Psychology – Get your head straight – Session Two

In session one, we discussed the importance of having a quiet working environment with as few as possible distractions, and at least two 15-inch or larger computer screens to help you assimilate all the information from your charting. And of course, to be up to speed when it comes to economic data releases and to understand how these might impact your trading. All of which are critical components of trading psychology.
OK, so you have planned your time, banished friends, family, kids, and other distractions from your work area. Now what? Well, another area where new Traders typically fall down he’s being unrealistic when it comes to trading losses — everybody loses trades at some point. But in forex trading, you really should be taking a long-term view. The best traders work to averages, they look for more wins than losses, and where any losses are contained by sensible stop losses, and where winning trades will typically run on for at least two times greater than any losses would be allowed to run for.


One of the biggest areas where new traders fall down is by not applying sensible stop losses, and then getting closed out by their broker due to a margin call. Or traders will simply throw the towel in when they have gone through the pain barrier, and then immediately double the size of subsequent trades in order to chase their losses in order to try and make money back. This is typically how gamblers operate, and of course, when it comes to gambling, the house generally always wins.


Some of the best traits of professional traders are the consistency of trading methodology while looking at the long game and not the short game, and being disciplined. When discipline fails – which is largely down to stress – then trading breaks down and fails too.
Another area where traders fail is due to greed, where they hang on to winning trades for too long, and try and squeeze every last pip out of their trade, which often leads to price action reversals and where trades move against them. This often results in traders going from a position of profit, to then running the position into negative territory, simply because they would not take a profit when they had it, because they wanted more. Professional traders know when to get out of a trade and do not let winning trades go into negative territory, even if they need to exit the trade with a small profit. They simply wait for the next trade setup up and go again.
Here at Forex.Academy, we have a full suite of educational tools to help you to become a professional currency trader, and they are all freely available on our website!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 19 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Brace for BOE Interest Rate

The U.S. Dollar Index was up for a second day, rising 0.2% to 97.40. The British pound lost 0.3% to $1.3085. Official data showed that U.K. core CPI grew 1.7% on year in November (as expected). On the other hand, the Bank of England is expected to keep its benchmark rate at 0.75% unchanged later today. Also, November retail sales will be reported (+0.2% on month estimated).

The U.S. Dollar Index was up for a second day, rising 0.2% to 97.40. The British pound lost 0.3% to $1.3085. Official data showed that U.K. core CPI grew 1.7% on year in November (as expected). On the other hand, the Bank of England is expected to keep its benchmark rate at 0.75% unchanged later today. Also, November retail sales will be reported (+0.2% on month estimated).

The U.S. Dollar Index was up for a second day, rising 0.2% to 97.40. The British pound lost 0.3% to $1.3085. Official data showed that U.K. core CPI grew 1.7% on year in November (as expected). On the other hand, the Bank of England is expected to keep its benchmark rate at 0.75% unchanged later today. Also, November retail sales will be reported (+0.2% on month estimated).

The euro dropped 0.3% to $1.1115. The German Ifo Business Climate Index climbed to 96.3 in December (95.5 expected) from 95.1 in November.

Later today, the U.S. Labor Department will report initial jobless claims for the week ending December 14 (225,000 expected, 252,000 in the prior week). Existing home sales are expected to slightly decrease to an annualized rate of 5.44 million units in November (5.46 million units in October).

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair flashing green and hit the bullish track from the average support and picked up some buying mainly due to greenback weakness. Although, the currency pair did not beat the 200-day Moving Average so far. As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.1126 and representing 0.14% gains. By the way, the pair is now consolidating in the range between the 1.1113 – 1.1133.

President Donald Trump was accused by the U.S. House of Representatives on Wednesday night for the abuse of power. The House also approved a 2nd-charge that Trump obstructed a Congress investigation. The greenback came under pressure after the impeachment news hit the wires. 

It should be noted that the declines in the greenback were modest and will likely be reversed during Europe as the Senate, which is controlled by Trump’s Republican Party, possibly absolve to him of all charges. Moreover, the chances of Donald Trump vacating office are low. Looking forward, the Senate trial will likely start in January. 

With the German economy showing indications of bottoming out and heading into New Year with more confidence, there seem fewer chances that EUR traders will pick up the selling trend.

From a technical perspective, the currency pair is currently trading in no man’s land. A close above the 200-day average at 1.1151 is needed to revive the short-term bullish setup. On the flip side, a break below Wednesday’s low of 1.1115 would imply a short-term bearish reversal. 


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.1117
  • S2 1.1121
  • S1 1.1124

Pivot Point 1.1126

  • R1 1.1128
  • R2 1.113
  • R3 1.1134

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

Technically, the EUR/USD traded mostly sideways ahead of CPI, and German Business Climate figures. The EUR/USD is trading with a slightly bearish bias, and it’s very likely to test the bullish trendline on the 4-hour chart. The bullish trendline is expected to support the EUR/USD above 1.1125. Continuation of a bullish bias over 1.1125 can hold EUR/USD bullish unto 1.1160 and 1.1185. The EUR/USD’s next support lingers around 1.1095 today,

 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair still found under pressure and hit the weekly lows despite the greenback weakness and waiting for fresh clues from the United Kingdom data/events which are scheduled to be released. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3081 and consolidates in the range between 1.3072 – 1.3091.

At the USD front, the greenback showed a broad-based weakness mainly due to the House Representatives, which voted to impeach President Trump. The House also approved a 2nd-charge that Trump obstructed a Congress investigation. Moreover, the ball will meet the Senate someday during early January for the opposition Democrats to make Donald Trump as the 3rd in the history to get impeached.

The GBP currency traders will keep their eyes on the November month Retail Sales ahead of the monetary policy meeting of the Bank of England and the British Queens speech setting out the Conservative government’s agenda for the coming year. The trader will also carefully observe the U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, Existing Home Sales, and Weekly Jobless Claims.

For now, BOE is likely to keep the rate unchanged at 0.75%. However, the markets are pricing a 65% probability of a rate cut by May 2020. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.295
  • S2 1.3019
  • S1 1.3049

Pivot Point 1.3089

  • R1 1.3118
  • R2 1.3159
  • R3 1.3229

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading with a slightly bullish bias now above 1.3178 as the pair has violated the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.3240. Below the same mark, the 50 periods EMA is likely to provide resistance to the GBP/USD. 

The RSI and MACD are holding in the oversold zone, suggesting odds of a bullish reversal upon completion above the double bottom support level of 1.3095. Today, consider taking buying trades above 1.3100 and bearish trades below 1.3178. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair dropped from the weekly high after the United States House of Representatives voted to impeach President Donald Trump. As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair s currently trading at 109.60 even after the status quo BOJ and remains stuck in the same range between the 109.56 – 109.59.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintained the short-term interest rate at -0.1 and kept the 10-year yield target unchanged around 0%, as expected. The risk-off sentiment is expected to remain ahead. The United States’ ten-year treasury yields fell to 1.90%, whereas the S&P 500 Futures also decreases.

Looking forward, traders will keep their eyes on the monetary policy decision by the Bank of Japan (BOJ). Ahead of the releases, analysts at T.D. Securities said, “The Bank Of Japan will continue its last meeting of the year. This should move with little fanfare because the BOJ has made the necessary changes in October.

    


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 109.07
  • S2 109.3
  • S1 109.43

Pivot Point 109.53

  • R1 109.66
  • R2 109.76
  • R3 109.99

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

From the technical perspective, a breakout, if confirmed, would imply a resumption of the rally from the December low of 108.46 and may yield a rally to 110.00. On the flip side, range breakdown will likely allow a re-test of support at 109.20-109.00. 

On the technical side, the USD/JPY consolidates below 109.700 resistance level.

The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level is supporting the USD/JPY pair around 109.200 level. While the RSI and MACD are suggesting chances of further selling in the USD/JPY pair. The pair may trade bearish below 109.53 to target 109.200 today. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Price-Action Strategies

Daily-H4 Timeframe Combination – The Market Sometimes Makes You Wait More Than You Think

In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of an entry derived from the daily-H4 combination. Usually, the daily-H4 combination does not take that long to offer an entry once the price makes a breakout on the daily chart. In today’s example, things are a bit different. Let us find out how it starts and ends.

In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of an entry derived from the daily-H4 combination. Usually, the daily-H4 combination does not take that long to offer an entry once the price makes a breakout on the daily chart. In today’s example, things are a bit different. Let us find out how it starts and ends.

In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of an entry derived from the daily-H4 combination. Usually, the daily-H4 combination does not take that long to offer an entry once the price makes a breakout on the daily chart. In today’s example, things are a bit different. Let us find out how it starts and ends.

The figure above shoes the daily chart. After a strong bullish impulse, the price action gets choppy for several days. Do you notice anything here?

The price gets caught within a rectangle. Since it has been choppy for quite a while, it makes some traders think not to keep the pair on their watch list.

There is a saying in price action trading “the more it ranges, the harder it breaks’. Thus, the next breakout may be a very strong one.

The breakout candle looks good. However, it is not that strong a breakout as we have expected. Nevertheless, it is a valid daily breakout, so traders are to flip over to the H4 chart to take a long entry.

The figure above shows the H4 chart. The price has been heading towards the North with an average bullish momentum. Traders are to wait for the price to find its support and make an upside breakout to offer them a long entry.

The price keeps being choppy on the H4 chart as well. It neither has consolidated nor produced a bullish reversal candle on which buyers could take a long entry. It has instead been within another bullish rectangle. This time it is, of course, an H4 bullish rectangle. Let us proceed to find out which way it makes its next breakout.

The price makes an upside breakout again. A bullish engulfing candle with long lower shadow makes the breakout. The buyers have been waiting for it, so a long entry may be triggered right after the candle closes. The Stop Loss shall be set below the rectangle support. There is no visible swing high. This suggests that the profit taking should be managed manually.

The plan has worked wonderfully well. The price goes straightway towards the North with extreme bullish momentum. The buyers may trail their Stop Loss in the middle of the big candle or at least above the breakeven point. As it has been going, it may keep pushing towards the North further. Let us find out what happens next.

The chart produces a bearish reversal candle. It is an Inside Bar, but it is time for the buyers to close the entry.

The price takes so long to make a breakout on the daily chart. It also takes a long time to offer entry on the H4 chart as well. This situation does not happen frequently, but sometimes it may occur. Thus, traders are to be mentally prepared for it.

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Dec 19 – Bitcoin above $7,000 while the market is in the green

Bulls have retaken the crypto market after quite a few red days. Most cryptocurrencies gained some value on the day, with some growing in value exponentially. Bitcoin gained 6.37%, and it is trading for $7060 at the time of writing. Meanwhile, Ethereum increased its price by 1.88%, while XRP gained 1.65%.

Bulls have retaken the crypto market after quite a few red days. Most cryptocurrencies gained some value on the day, with some growing in value exponentially. Bitcoin gained 6.37%, and it is trading for $7060 at the time of writing. Meanwhile, Ethereum increased its price by 1.88%, while XRP gained 1.65%.

Bulls have retaken the crypto market after quite a few red days. Most cryptocurrencies gained some value on the day, with some growing in value exponentially. Bitcoin gained 6.37%, and it is trading for $7060 at the time of writing. Meanwhile, Ethereum increased its price by 1.88%, while XRP gained 1.65%.

Aidos Kuneen, on the other hand, gained 50.04% on the day, making it the biggest daily gainer. Out of the cryptos that ended up in the red, the biggest loser was Centrality, which lost 4.71% of its value on the day.

Bitcoin’s dominance increased yet again in the past 24 hours, as cryptocurrencies (on average) gained less value than it did. Its dominance in percentage is currently 67.95%, which represents an increase of 0.36% when compared to the value it had yesterday.

The cryptocurrency market capitalization rose in the past 24 hours as the individual cryptocurrencies gained. Its total market value is currently $187.39 billion. This value represents a decrease of $7.39 when compared to the value it had yesterday.

What happened in the past 24 hours

Recent statistics show that 14.4% of Americans own at least some cryptocurrency. The cryptocurrency accounting firm Lukka announced its “do-it-yourself” cryptocurrency tax preparation software that is suited for retail investors. The product will come live just in time for the 2019 tax season.

Lukka’s main focus was providing institutional-grade solutions to crypto funds in the past. However, the company decided to expand to the retail investor market.

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

After almost a week of its price continously falling, Bitcoin finally had a decent green day. In fact, the past 24 hours were amazing for Bitcoin price-wise. Its price went from $6,400 all the way to $7,500 before settling at around $7,050 for now. Many analysts show that Bitcoin is now bullish in the short-term.


Bitcoin’s volume has currently increased, while its RSI was dangerously approaching overbought territory. However, that quickly ended, and its RSI is now approaching the middle of the value range.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $7,260                                           1: $6,940

2: $7,415                                           2: $6,410

3: $7,525

Ethereum

Ethereum has had a great day as well, though not as good in terms of the price increase as Bitcoin. Ethereum spent the past couple of days repeating the same price pattern over and over. Its price dropped severely during a short period, following by it trying to consolidate just above its lows for the day. Similar to yesterday and the day before, Ethereum started losing value extremely quickly.  However, the $117 line held up quite well, and Ethereum bounced off of it to $135. However, Ethereum’s direction is still unknown as the price fell back down to $128 at the time of writing.


If Ethereum falls under $117, new support levels will have to form naturally as Ethereum does not have any “prepared” ones yet.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $120.35                                            1: $117

2: $128.1

3: $130

Ripple

XRP did not have a bad day, either. Its price gained some value today, too, while the gains were quite marginal compared to Bitcoin’s gains. XRP’s price found support in the $0.176 level, which propelled it to $0.2. However, that was just a short-term gain as XRP started going down almost as quickly as it went up. With the current price of $0.1865, XRP has not broken any resistance lines since the price started rising.


Unlike Bitcoin, which had its RSI almost reach overbought levels during the price spike, XRP has its RSI still walking on the edge of being oversold.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $0.19                                              1: $0.176

2: $0.198                                            2: $0.16

3: $0.2045

Categories
Forex Basic Strategies Forex Trading Strategies

Trading The Morning Star Candlestick Pattern Like A Pro!

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

Morning star is a bottom reversal pattern, and it primarily consists of three candlesticks that indicate the bullish sign. This pattern warns the weakness in an ongoing downtrend that, in turn, suggests the start of an uptrend. Traders observe the formation of a Morning Star pattern on the price chart, and then they can confirm it with other technical tools.

The Three Candlesticks Of Morning Star Pattern

  • Large Bearish Candle
  • Small Bullish or Bearish Candle
  • Large Bullish Candle

The most fundamental thing to remember is that the market should be in a downtrend to trade the Morning Star pattern. To confirm the downtrend, mark the lower lows and lower highs.

Large Bearish Candle is the first part of the Morning star reversal pattern. The bearish candle indicates the bears are in complete control, which means the continuation of the selling pressure. At this point in the market, we should only be looking for the sell trades as there is no sign of reversal yet.

Small Bullish/Bearish Candle is the second candle that begins with a bearish gap down. This candle indicates that the sellers fail to push the price lower, despite trying really hard. The price action ends up forming a quite small bullish/bearish or Doji candle. If this candle is a small bullish candle, it’s an early sign of trend reversal.

Large Bullish Candle is the third candle that holds the most significance because the real buying pressure is revealed in this candle. If this candle begins with a buying gap, and if buyers can push the prices higher by closing the candle even above the first red candle, it is a definite indication of a trend reversal.

Trading strategy – Morning Star Candlestick Pattern

As we know by now, the Morning star is a reversal pattern. It mainly indicates the bulls taking over the trend while the bears lose the grip. Most of the beginners tend to trade the Morning Star pattern stand-alone. But we do not recommend this as it is not reliable enough. Always pair this pattern with some other credible indicators, support resistance levels, or trend lines to make profitable trades.

Morning Star Pattern + Volume

In this strategy, we have paired the Morning Star pattern with the volume. The volume plays a significant role in pattern formations. If the first red candle shows a low volume, it is a good sign for us. Then, if the second candle is green and the volume rises, it indicates the buying pressure. Lastly, the long green candle’s volume must be high. The high volume on the last candle shows the confirmation of the upcoming buy trend. If the third bullish candle has low volume, then try avoiding that Morning Star Pattern because the volume is not indicating the bullish reversal. If you observe the third candle closing with high volume, take up the buying position and ride the uptrend until there are any indications of a trend reversal.

Confirm the downtrend on the trading timeframe

Confirmation is very important because, if there is no downtrend, there’s no point in trading the Morning Star pattern. You can confirm the downtrend on a higher timeframe or on your trading timeframe. As you can see in the below image, the overall trend of the CAD/CHF Forex pair was down.

Find out the Morning star pattern on your trading timeframe

As you can see in the below CAD/CHF chart, the market prints the Morning Star pattern by following all the rules of our strategy. The first red candle was with low volume, and the second one was a small red candle. Hence there is no indication to go long in this pair yet. The very next was a long green candle with high volume. This is a strong indication of a trend reversal.

Entry, Take Profit and Stop Loss

We should be entering the trade when the next green candle closes. There are so many different ways to book profit. We can close the position at any resistance area or supply-demand zone. In this trade, we hold our positions because we took the trade from the beginning of a new trend. You can also close your positions when the price goes near the higher timeframe’s significant resistance level.

Pairing this pattern with volume makes it more reliable to trade. So it is a good idea to place the stop loss just below the second candle. In the above picture, you can see that we have put the stop loss just below the second candle, and we have also booked the profit at the higher timeframe’s major resistance area.

Reliability of Morning Star Pattern

This pattern is very easy to identify on the price chart if you are an intermediate trader. Even novice traders can easily spot it on the chart with little practice. Morning Star pattern often gives us well-defined entries and good risk-reward ratios. The only limitation of this pattern is that, if the sellers are strong enough, the prices could go further down despite the formation of the Morning Star Pattern. Hence it is always recommended to combine this pattern with some other trading tools rather than trading it stand-alone.

We hope you find this article informative. Try trading this pattern when you see a perfect downtrend next time. Let us know how the results have been in the comments below. Cheers!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

WTI Crude Oil Slipped Amid Rising Crude Inventories – Quick Trade Plan! 

The WTI crude oil prices are flashing red and traded lower after the American Petroleum Institute reported a large build of weekly crude inventories. The WTI crude oil inventories increased by 4.7 million barrels in its snapshot of stockpiles for the week ended December 13, the API said.

The WTI crude oil prices are flashing red and traded lower after the American Petroleum Institute reported a large build of weekly crude inventories. The WTI crude oil inventories increased by 4.7 million barrels in its snapshot of stockpiles for the week ended December 13, the API said.

The WTI crude oil prices are flashing red and traded lower after the American Petroleum Institute reported a large build of weekly crude inventories. The WTI crude oil inventories increased by 4.7 million barrels in its snapshot of stockpiles for the week ended December 13, the API said.

The U.S. government data is anticipated to point a drop of 1.3 million barrels while the Energy Information Administration(EIA) publishes its weekly figures.

In the previous week, the EIA announced the advance of a crude stock of 822K barrels versus a market forecast for a dip of 2.76 million barrels.

The WTI crude oil prices got some benefit earlier in the day after data showed U.S. November manufacturing output and housing figures both outperformed expectations.

It should be noted that the declines in crude oil prices have been limited due to Sino-US trade optimism. A phase-one trade deal was agreed between the United States and China last week, decreasing some fears over the economic impact of a continued dispute between the two biggest crude oil importers. 

Technically, the WTI is trading in a bullish channel, which is supporting it around 60.20, while the same bullish channel is likely to resistance around 62.22. 

On the way to upside, the WTI crude oil may find a horizontal resistance level around 61 while the RSI and MACD are suggesting bearish bias. Lately, the crude oil has formed a series of neutral candles which exhibits indecision among traders.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 58.49
  • S2 59.48
  • S1 59.97

Pivot Point 60.47

  • R1 60.96
  • R2 61.46
  • R3 62.45

Consider taking buying trade above 60.20 to target 60.50, and above this, the WTI may soar to test 61.10. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Price-Action Strategies

H4-H1 Combination – An Opportunity Missed Just for an Inch

The H4-H1 is an action-packed combination. By drawing support/resistance on the and upon getting a reversal candle on the H4 chart, an entry is triggered considering H1 price action. However, things do not always go according to our expectations. In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of an H4-H1 combination and find out whether it offers us entry or not. Let us get started.

The H4-H1 is an action-packed combination. By drawing support/resistance on the and upon getting a reversal candle on the H4 chart, an entry is triggered considering H1 price action. However, things do not always go according to our expectations. In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of an H4-H1 combination and find out whether it offers us entry or not. Let us get started.

The H4-H1 is an action-packed combination. By drawing support/resistance on the and upon getting a reversal candle on the H4 chart, an entry is triggered considering H1 price action. However, things do not always go according to our expectations. In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of an H4-H1 combination and find out whether it offers us entry or not. Let us get started.

This is the H4 chart. The chart shows that the price after having a rejection at a strong resistance zone heads towards the downside with extreme bearish pressure. The support zone is strong too. The last three candles are bearish, but they suggest that selling pressure may have decreased off a little. The last candle is a Spinning Top.

The combination of the last three candles ends up producing a Morning Star. This is one of the strongest bullish reversal candle combinations. The buyers are to flip over to the H1 chart for consolidation and H1 breakout candle to go long on the pair. Let us flip over to the H1 chart.

This is how the H1 chart looks. The chart produces several bullish candles consecutively, which suggests that it is the buyers’ territory. The resistance level is far enough to offer a lucrative risk-reward to the buyers as well.

Here it comes. The first candle for consolidation comes out as a bearish engulfing candle. Let us find out whether the price finds its support nearby or it heads towards the downside further.

It seems that the price may have found its support. It produces a Spinning Top again. If a bullish engulfing candle breaches the level of resistance, it will be an A+ buying signal. If another bullish candle breaches the level from where the last candle closes, it will be a good buying signal as well but may have relatively less buying pressure than the engulfing one. In both cases, the buyers are to calculate that the signal candle does not go too far up. Let us find out what happens next.

A very good-looking bullish Marubozu candle breaches the resistance. The buyers may want to trigger a long entry right after the candle closes. Would you trigger a long entry here? I let you think for a minute.

If yes, then you might have missed the line “In both cases, the buyers are to calculate that the signal candle does not go too far up.” It does, and it leaves only a little space for the price to travel towards the resistance. The risk-reward is not lucrative here at all.

An entry where almost everything looks perfect, we may still skip taking that for not fulfilling just one condition. It may frustrate us to some extent, but we have to deal with it professionally.

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 18 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eyes On UK CPI!

On the forex front, the British pound plunged 1.6% to $1.3122, wiping out its gains since the election day last Thursday. Media reported that U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson might amend the withdrawal agreement bill to block any further extension of Brexit. Hence the prospect of a no-deal Brexit is still on the table.

On the forex front, the British pound plunged 1.6% to $1.3122, wiping out its gains since the election day last Thursday. Media reported that U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson might amend the withdrawal agreement bill to block any further extension of Brexit. Hence the prospect of a no-deal Brexit is still on the table.

On the forex front, the British pound plunged 1.6% to $1.3122, wiping out its gains since the election day last Thursday. Media reported that U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson might amend the withdrawal agreement bill to block any further extension of Brexit. Hence the prospect of a no-deal Brexit is still on the table.

Also, the U.K.’s official data showed that the jobless rate for the three months to October was steady at 3.8% (3.9% expected). Later today, investors will focus on U.K. consumer inflation data for November (CPI +1.4% on year expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair remains in the red territory and hits the strong bearish track after got repeated rejection to cross the 200-day Moving Average resistance. As of writing, the currency pair is currently trading at 1.1133, representing a 0.14% declines on the day and consolidates in the range between 1.1131 – 1.1155.

The EUR/USD pair hit the high level of 1.1155 but failed to beat the 200-day Moving Average resistance. Looking forward, the currency pair will likely pick up further selling trend if the German data disappoints expectations, whereas if the German data beats expectations figures, the currency pair can beat the 200-day Moving average.

It should also be noted that the buyers failed to secure a daily close above the long-term average for the 4th-straight day on Tuesday because the range between the United States and German ten-year bond yields increased nearly 5-basis points to 218 basis points.

Looking ahead, the German IFO survey, scheduled to release at 09:00 GMT, is expected to show the expectations index increased to 93.0 in December from 92.1, according to the latest survey of analysts. 

As we recently mentioned that an above-forecast figure is needed to confirm last week’s ZEW survey, which showed the German economy has bottomed out and draws bids for the EUR currency. Moreover, an upbeat on expectations will likely yield a move above the 200-day MA at 1.1151.

The European Central Bank’s President, Lagarde, is scheduled to speak at 08:30 GMT. Lagarde is unlikely to sound dovish and will likely repeat the need for fiscal stimulus. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.1062
  • S2 1.1107
  • S1 1.113

Pivot Point 1.1153

  • R1 1.1176
  • R2 1.1198
  • R3 1.1243

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

Technically, the EUR/USD traded mostly sideways ahead of CPI, and German Business Climate figures. The EUR/USD is trading with a slightly bearish bias, and it’s very likely to test the bullish trendline on the 4-hour chart. The bullish trendline is likely to support the EUR/USD above 1.1125. Continuation of a bullish bias over 1.1125 can hold EUR/USD bullish unto 1.1160 and 1.1185. The EUR/USD’s next support lingers around 1.1095 today,

 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair flashing red and hit the four-day lows of 1.309 down -0.30% on the day. The currency pair continues its bearish streak and still under pressure. That is mainly due to hard Brexit fears intensified after UK PM Johnson’s confirmed to the parliament that his office planned to ensure by law that the U.K.’s post-Brexit departure period will end in Dec 2020. 

As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading 1.3102 and consolidates in the range between the 1.3072 – 1.3135.

It should be noted that the departure uncertainty regarding Brexit was always considered as the risk faced by the GBP currency, but it was priced in sooner than anticipated. As a result, the soft Brexit premium is currently being priced out of GBP, and buyers have been sent back from the buying track.

At the greenback front, the U.S. Dollar (USD) benefited from the upbeat industrial production and housing market numbers along with the welcome comments from the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. The greenback also got the support of trade-related positive statements from the Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer.

Looking forward, the GBP buyers will closely observe the November month inflation data, whereas the Fed speak will likely offer additional hints. In this regard, T.D. Securities said, “We look for CPI to edge a touch lower to 1.4% y/y in November (market 1.5%). Underlying this, we expect core CPI to hold unchanged at 1.7% y/y (market 1.6%) for the 3rd-month in a row. 


Daily Support and Resistance 

  • S3 1.2774
  • S2 1.2976
  • S1 1.3054

Pivot Point 1.3178

  • R1 1.3256
  • R2 1.338
  • R3 1.3581

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading bearish below 1.3178 as the pair has violated the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.3240. Below the same mark, the 50 periods EMA is likely to provide resistance to the GBP/USD. 

The RSI and MACD are holding in the oversold zone, suggesting odds of a bullish reversal upon completion above the double bottom support level of 1.3095. Today, consider taking buying trades above 1.3100 and bearish trades below 1.3178. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY closed at 109.472 after placing a high of 109.632 and a low of 109.441. Overall the trend for USD/JPY pair remained bearish that day.

On the data side, at 2:00 GMT, the U.S. Department of the Treasury published the TIC Long-Term Purchases for October, and it showed a decline to 32.5B from expected 52.2B and weighed on U.S. dollar.

The Building Permits from the United States showed growth in November when released at 18:30 GMT. In the previous month, it was expected that 1.41M building permits would be issued. Still, according to the reports, the number of actual building permits in November exceeded the expectations and came in as 1.48M to support the U.S. dollar.

The number of U.S. residential buildings that began construction during November also exceeded the expectations and supported the U.S. dollar on Tuesday. It was expected that 1.34M house buildings would start its construction, but in actual 1.37M, housing starts.

At 19:15 GMT, the Capacity Utilization Rate from Federal Reserve was published, which showed that 77.3% of available resources were being utilized during November. The expected figure was almost the same 77.4% and did not affect the U.S. dollar. However, Industrial Production from the United States for November also increased to 1.1% from expected 0.8% and supported the U.S. dollar.

At 20:00 GMT, the JOLTS Job Openings for October showed growth to 7.27M from the expected 7.01M and supported the U.S. dollar. And at 20:01 GMT, the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism for the month of December was surged to 57.0 from forecasted 54.2 and supported U.S. dollar on Tuesday.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 109.14
  • S2 109.34
  • S1 109.42

Pivot Point 109.53

  • R1 109.62
  • R2 109.72
  • R3 109.92

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On the technical side, the USD/JPY consolidates below 109.700 resistance level. The same level marks a triple top pattern has the USD/JPY faced a hard time violating it back on Dec 1, 13, and 16. 

The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level is supporting the USD/JPY pair around 109.200 level. While the RSI and MACD are suggesting chances of further selling in the USD/JPY pair. The pair may trade bearish below 109.53 to target 109.200 today. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Economic Indicators Forex Fundamental Analysis

Forex Fundamental Indicator – What you need to know about the GDP & GDP Growth

There are several components that make up fundamental analysis, but one of the most influential indicators is The Gross Domestic Product and the GDP growth rate. GDP is a well-known metric of economics and is one of the most important components when doing your fundamental analysis due diligence of a currency pair.

There are several components that make up fundamental analysis, but one of the most influential indicators is The Gross Domestic Product and the GDP growth rate. GDP is a well-known metric of economics and is one of the most important components when doing your fundamental analysis due diligence of a currency pair.

There are several components that make up fundamental analysis, but one of the most influential indicators is The Gross Domestic Product and the GDP growth rate. GDP is a well-known metric of economics and is one of the most important components when doing your fundamental analysis due diligence of a currency pair.

What is GDP

The Gross Domestic Product is defined as a “monetary measure of the market value of all the final goods and services produced in a specific time period, often annually”- Wikipedia

This is the total economic activity generated by both private and public companies within a country in a specific time period.

Nominal GDP vs. Real GDP

Nominal GDP is the market value of all goods and services produced in an economy with inflation adjustments. Real GDP is the Nominal GDP, which has been adjusted for inflation.

Components of the GDP

The GDP is broken down into four components and is an indication of what a country is good at producing: Personal consumption expenditures of goods and services, business investments, government expending, and net exports of goods and services.

Personal Consumption expenditures

Consumer spending is one of the main contributors to production and is the best way to compare using data from different years. This is subdivided by the BEA into goods and services.

Goods are further subdivided into durable and non-durable goods. Durable goods are cars and furniture, for example, and have a lifespan of three or more years. Non-durable goods are fuel, clothing, food, etc.

Services include commodities that cannot be stored are consumed when purchased.

Business investments

This includes purchases that companies make to produce consumer goods, and not every purchase is counted as purchases must go to creating new consumer products. Again the BEA divides this component into two subcomponents;

Fixed Investment – It is a non-residential investment that consists of business equipment like software, capital goods, and manufacturing equipment, and this also includes commercial real estate construction and residential construction. This component is based on monthly shipment data from the BEA durable goods order report.

Change in private inventory – this is how many companies will add to their inventories of goods they plan to sell. As orders increase, companies may not have enough goods in stock and therefore order more to ensure supply and the increase in private inventories contributes to GDP. If there is a decrease in inventory orders, then companies will halt manufacturing, and if it persists, then staff reductions are next.

Government spending

This is an indication of the size of government across countries. There is a large variation in this indicator and highlights the countries’ approach to delivering public goods and services.

Net exports of goods and services

Imports and exports have an opposite effect on GDP as exports add to the GDP and imports subtract from the GDP data.

 

The economic reports

The economic reports of the GDP cover quarter or annual data periods, and this data is reviewed periodically until the final GDP data is released. There are some countries that release this data on a monthly basis, like the USA. However, the majority opt to release this data quarterly and annually.

Analyzing the DATA

The economic reports of the Gross Domestic Product are such an integral measure of economic activity that it is a vital component of fundamental analysis in a currency pair. The GDP data is a key measure in determining the strength of a country’s economy and hence the strength of its currency. By comparing the two sets of data on both currencies and comparing each set of GDP data to that of previous releases. This comparison helps to determine which of the two currencies is stronger, and enjoying a strong economy.

When analyzing this data, it is necessary to compare like for like economies as each country is at a different level of development. When we look at developing economies, we can anticipate seeing annual growth rates that exceed the norm, and for the emerging economies, annual growth rates can climb to double digits.

What is the GDP Growth Rate

The GDP growth rate measures how fast an economy is growing and is the next comparison, which is necessary in order to evaluate the previous years’ data is in line with the previous years for the same period. This collection of data shows the expansion or contraction of economic activity within a country.

What determines growth

A nation’s GDP growth rate determines its economic health. If the growth rate is positive, it indicates that the wealth of the nation is improving, and the economy is doing well. If the GDP growth rate is negative, meaning it has fallen below the previous period, it is a clear indication that the economy is declining. This decline in the GDP growth rate has serious ramifications as unemployment rises with the downturn of production.

Economic reports

The GDP economic reports are a vital measure of economic activity and integral to the fundamental analysis for any currency pair you wish to trade. This data is vital in determining the benefits of a particular economy and the strength of its currency. By comparing this data to previous years or periods, one is able to ascertain the progression of the expansion or contraction of the economic activity and thus evaluate if it is equivalent to the same period of previous years.

Impact on currency

The GDP growth rates are a massive driving factor in a currency’s performance because of the results that economic activity has on a currency. This means that higher levels of economic activity will generate a higher demand for a specific currency, and an increase in economic activity will also generate an increase in the total value of that economy.  The more value that a specific country’s economy has, the higher the value of its currency. What traders are looking at when analyzing this data is the difference found between the two currencies’ growth rates. As a rule of thumb, the currency which has a higher growth rate will generally experience an appreciation of its currency.

 

Sources of information on GDP

Most nations release their GDP data on a monthly, quarterly, and annual basis, and in the U.S., it is the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) that publishes an advanced release of this data.

When one is contemplating doing their own fundamental analysis, it is imperative to take into account the effect that a country’s GDP will have on its currency strength and the importance of measuring the data rate from previous periods. The GDP data is closely monitored as it defines the movements of an economy is a straightforward way.

Links to GDP information resources:

IMF

https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2019/02/weodata/index.aspx

OECD

https://data.oecd.org/gdp/gross-domestic-product-gdp.htm

USA

https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Europe

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Main_Page

UK

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp

Canada

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/190531/dq190531a-eng.htm

Japan

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/release/tables?rid=269&eid=155790#snid=155791

China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/statisticaldata/Quarterlydata/

Australia

https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/5206.0

New Zealan­­­­d

https://www.stats.govt.nz/indicators/gross-domestic-product-gdp

 

Categories
Forex Videos

Forex Trading Psychology Part 1- Winner’s Have To Learn To Lose

https://youtu.be/WwZJSl_sNFU

https://youtu.be/WwZJSl_sNFU

Trading Psychology – Get your head straight – Session Two

In session one, we discussed the importance of having a quiet working environment with as few as possible distractions, and at least two 15-inch or larger computer screens to help you assimilate all the information from your charting. And, of course, to be up to speed when it comes to economic data releases and to understand how these might impact your trading. All of which are critical components of trading psychology.
OK, so you have planned your time, banished friends, family, kids, and other distractions from your work area. Now what? Well, another area where new Traders typically fall down he’s being unrealistic when it comes to trading losses. Everybody loses trades at some point. But in forex trading, you really should be taking a long-term view. The best traders work to averages, they look for more wins than losses, and where any losses are contained by sensible stop losses, and where winning trades will typically run on for at least two times greater than any losses would be allowed to run for.


One of the biggest areas where new traders fall down is by not applying sensible stop losses, and then getting closed out by their broker due to a margin call. Or traders will simply throw the towel in when they have gone through the pain barrier, and then immediately double the size of subsequent trades in order to chase their losses in order to try and make money back. This is typically how gamblers operate, and of course, when it comes to gambling, the house generally always wins. Some of the best traits of a professional trader is the consistency of trading methodology while looking at the long game and not the short game, and being disciplined. When discipline fails – which is largely down to stress – then trading breaks down and fails too.


Another area where traders fail is due to greed, where they hang on to winning trades for too long, and try and squeeze every last pip out of their trade, which often leads to price action reversals and where trades are moving against them. This often results in traders going from a position of profit, to then running the position into negative territory, simply because they would not take a profit when they had it, because they wanted more. Professional traders know when to get out of a trade and do not let winning trades go into negative territory, even if they need to exit the trade with a small profit. They simply wait for the next trade setup up and go again.

Here at Forex.Academy, we have a full suite of educational tools to help you to become a professional currency trader, and they are all freely available on our website!

Categories
Forex Price-Action Strategies

Be Patient and Observant, You Will be Paid Back

Price action traders are to be extremely observant to find out entries. Charts sometimes may seem not to offer an entry soon. However, if traders are sharp, they will be able to find out entries from the charts that may look choppy or dead for the price action traders. In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of that.

Price action traders are to be extremely observant to find out entries. Charts sometimes may seem not to offer an entry soon. However, if traders are sharp, they will be able to find out entries from the charts that may look choppy or dead for the price action traders. In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of that.

Price action traders are to be extremely observant to find out entries. Charts sometimes may seem not to offer an entry soon. However, if traders are sharp, they will be able to find out entries from the charts that may look choppy or dead for the price action traders. In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of that.

After being very bearish, the price gets caught within a rectangle. The price action has been choppy, and it does not seem like that the chart is going to offer an entry. Many traders may want to skip eying on the chart to find out an entry. Can you sniff something out of it? Have a look at the chart below.

With a bit of adjustment, we can draw horizontal support as well as resistance. Look at the last bullish engulfing candle. It forms right at the support level, where the price had bounced twice earlier. That was on the daily chart. The daily-H4 combination traders may want to look for long opportunities here. Since the resistance is not far away, let’s wait for a daily breakout.

Here it comes. The next candle breaches the level of resistance and closes well above the resistance level, so it is an explicit breakout. The buyers, then, must wait for consolidation to get a level of support and to set their stop loss below that level.

The next candle comes out as an Inside Bar closing within the breakout level. This fact must excite the buyers and make them wait to get a bullish engulfing candle to trigger a long entry.

This has been a copybook price action, which price action traders dream of. The last candle engulfs the previous candle. The buyers may want to trigger a long entry right after the candle closes. Stop loss may be set below the flipped support.

This is how the chart looks after triggering the entry. The way the price has been heading, it may keep going towards the last swing high. However, by locking some profit, the buyers are to keep an eye on the chart.

The chart produces an Inside Bar. It still favors buyers. However, traders are to make a decision here. They either close the whole entry or take out at least 50% profit and let the rest of it run. This is part of trade management. However, the lesson we have learned from here is we are to be patient and extremely observant to be able to find out entries. If we are observant, we will be able to find out entries even from the charts that do not look that good.

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX. Analysis, December 17 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eyes on UK Labor Market Figures! 

On Tuesday, the market trades with a risk-off sentiment as investors are still waiting for clarity about Brexit and Trade deal between the U.S. and China. The U.S. dollar was steady against other major currencies, with the ICE Dollar Index closing flat on the day at 97.15.

On Tuesday, the market trades with a risk-off sentiment as investors are still waiting for clarity about Brexit and Trade deal between the U.S. and China. The U.S. dollar was steady against other major currencies, with the ICE Dollar Index closing flat on the day at 97.15.

On Tuesday, the market trades with a risk-off sentiment as investors are still waiting for clarity about Brexit and Trade deal between the U.S. and China. The U.S. dollar was steady against other major currencies, with the ICE Dollar Index closing flat on the day at 97.15.

China’s official data showed that industrial production rose 6.2% on year in November (+5.0% expected), and retail sales grew 8.0% (+7.6% expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

Economic Calendar by TradingView

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

Today in the early Asian session, the EUR/USD currency pair flashing green and trading on the bullish track but failed to cross the 200-day moving average despite the fresh trade truce between the United States and China. The EUR/USD is presently trading at 1.1147, having faced rejection at the 200-day Moving Average at 1.1152. 

However, the EUR currency has repeatedly failed to close above the 200-day MA. For example, the Euro currency picked up a strong buying on Friday and climbed to a high of 1.12 only to end the day with moderate losses at 1.1118. 

Regarding U.S. economic data, the Empire Manufacturing Index posted 3.5 for December (below the 4.0 expected, up from 2.9 in November). The Markit U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (preliminary reading) declined slightly to 52.5 in December (below 52.6 expected) from 52.6 in November.

The monthly United States Housing Starts and Building Permits are scheduled for release at 13:30 GMT on Tuesday. The Eurozone Trade Balance (Oct), scheduled for release at 10:00 GMT, is unlikely to move markets. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.1079
  • S2 1.1111
  • S1 1.1127

Pivot Point 1.1143

  • R1 1.1159
  • R2 1.1175
  • R3 1.1207

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

Just like the rest of the forex pairs, the EUR/USD hasn’t made much progress on Monday despite a mixture of PMI data. The EUR/USD is trading with a slightly bullish above the bullish trendline, which is supporting the EUR/USD above 1.1125. Extension of a bullish bias above 1.1125 can keep EUR/USD optimistic until 1.1160 and 1.1185. The EUR/USD’s next support prevails around 1.1095 today,

 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair flashing red and representing more than 60 pips decline to 1.3265, having hit the low of 1.3236 during the Asian trading hours. The bearish bias came mainly due to hard Brexit fears. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3295 and consolidates in the range between the 1.3236 – 1.3339. Looking ahead, the GBP/USD pair could come under pressure due to fresh Brexit concerns.

It should be noted that the victory of conservatives will help the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson to pass the Bill to rule out European Union transition beyond 2020. The Departure Agreement Bill (WAB) is widely expected to be put for a 2nd reading in the House of Commons on this Friday.

Whereas, the Conservatives leader Boris Jonhson will not hesitate to repeat his promise regarding leave the region with deal or without a deal before 2020 ends. Despite that, the United Kingdom Prime Minster has repeatedly promoted the idea of the Canda-style free trade agreement, and UK PM will likely push for the same after the Bill gets the Parliaments’ approval.

Comments came from Robert Peterson that the PM Boris Johnson is committed to passing the Tory manifesto commitment to end the transition in just over a year from now. 

Looking forward, investors will seek more hints of the recent declines in the GBP from the political headlines. However, the traders will keep their eyes on the releases of the UK employment figures. A busy week of the UK calendar is worth watching ahead of the Bank of England policy meeting on Thursday. The consensus is for the unemployment rate to tick up to 3.9%, whereas wages growth eases a little to 3.4% YoY,” says Westpac ahead of the data release.

Daily Support and Resistance 

  • R3: 1.3722
  • R2: 1.3548
  • R1: 1.3441

Pivot Point 1.3374

  • S1: 1.3267
  • S2: 1.32
  • S3: 1.3025

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading bearish below 1.3362 as the pair seems to go for a retracement until 1.3240, which marks a 61.8% Fibonacci level. At the same mark, the 50 periods EMA is likely to support the GBP/USD. 

The RSI and MACD are holding in the buying zone, suggesting odds of a bullish reversal upon completion of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Today, consider taking buying trades above 1.3190 and bearish trades below 1.3274. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair is struggling to extend its recovery rally because the markets want more clarity about the fresh optimism surrounding the phase-one trade deal and Brexit concerns. As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 109.56 and consolidates in the range between 109.50 – 109.63. 

Even after the fresh trade truce of the Sino-US Phase-one deal, the United States and China trade relationships are still being termed as noisy ceasefire by the South China morning post.

On the other hand, ITV’s Robert Peterson thinks the risk of hard Brexit because the United Kingdom’s (UK) Prime Minister (PM) will soon forward the Bill that supports no transition delay beyond 2020.

Moreover, the risk tone gets heavier because the United States’ ten-year treasury yields decline to 1.87%, whereas the S&P 500 Futures losses 0.14% to 3,193 by the press time.

Apart from the trade/Brexit headlines, monetary policy meetings by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and headline inflation will also entertain momentum traders during this week. Whereas the BOJ is not expected to change the current monetary policy, appreciation of the latest fiscal measures will likely support the Japanese yen (JPY) to strengthen further on Thursday. Moreover, Friday’s inflation data will probably keep exerting downside pressure on the Japanese currency.

The currency pair ignored the sluggish activity data from the United States during the Monday as risk-on sentiment increased due to optimism surrounding the United States and China trade deal. Looking forward, today’s United States Industrial Production, Fed speak, and housing market data can offer immediate direction to the pair movement.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 108.91
  • S2 109.22
  • S1 109.39

Pivot Point 109.53

  • R1 109.7
  • R2 109.84
  • R3 110.15

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On the technical side, the buyers await a clear break of the monthly high surrounding 109.75 to target 110.00 and May month high near 110.70. Meanwhile, 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 109.00 holds the key to fresh declines towards the 108.45/40 support area.

The pair is heading towards the double top resistance level of around 109.700. Below this, the USD/JPY is likely to show a bearish correction of up to 38.2% level, which stays at 109.200. On the higher side, the bullish breakout of USD/JPY can lead the Japanese pair towards 110.300. The MACD and RSI are in support of the bullish trend. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Videos

Forex Leading and Lagging Indicators – which Is Better & What Do They Do

https://youtu.be/xBZdIh4GtSw

https://youtu.be/xBZdIh4GtSw

Technical Analysis; The Difference Between Leading and Lagging Indicators

When it comes to technical analysis, there are literally dozens of indicators which are available to traders. Choosing the right one for you will depend on your trading style and methodology. Most new traders will go through a process of trial and error when it comes to choosing the correct technical indicators for them. However, it is critical that you know how they work and how they can affect your trading.

Technical indicators are tools and fall into two brackets: leading and lagging indicators. Lagging indicators capture the movements of historical price action data and plots this information onto a chart screen. Traders decipher the patterns and then use it to determine entry and exit points by accessing if a pair is overbought and likely to fall, all or if it oversold and likely to rise, or if it is sideways trading.

Example A


Example ‘A’ is an example of a lagging indicator; the Moving Average Convergence Divergence or MACD takes the average move of historical price action over a set period of time and plots the information onto a chart. In this chart of the GBPUSD pair with the 5-minute time frame, we can see that the price action of the pair is very similarly reflected in the MACD with its moving average, which both fluctuate around its 0 axes. Traders use the imagery to back up their theory of future price action.

Example B


Example ‘B,’ on the same pair and time frame, is of another lagging indicator, the Stochastic oscillator, which plots historical price action data and tells a trader when a pair is entering into overbought territory such as above the 80-line and when a pair maybe oversold such as below the 20-line. Again, traders use the data to help predict future reversals in price.

Example C


Example C, again on the same GBPUSD, a chart, is a simple moving average lagging indicator, which plots the average move of the previous price action, where, in this case, a continuous line is formed onto the chart of the average of the previous 14 candlesticks. As we can see, when price action falls underneath the moving average, it tends to trend lower, and it is also easy to identify on this chart that when price action moves above the moving average, a tren higher follows.

Example D


Example D is price action itself on the same chart as defined by our Japanese candlesticks, and where the price action itself is a leading indicator. Leading indicators are the most widely used by professional traders to help anticipate future price movements and help to define entry and exit points with much greater accuracy the lagging indicators. When traders use price action in the form of candlesticks, they study the size shape and patterns of the candlesticks to predict future movements.

Example E


Example E, on the same chart, is another leading indicator. These are support and resistance lines, Which Traders will draw onto the grass themselves at ware price action tends to find support which it is likely to move up from and resistance where the price is likely to fall from, in order to decipher future price action. As you will see from our screen-shot, these lines will often alternate between being levels of support and levels of resistance due to price action retracement.

Example F


Example F is another leading indicator. This is a screenshot from a forex broker’s clients’ positions table, which shows the net positions of how their traders are positioned on various currency pairs. Many brokers now offer this superb facility which will give traders added comfort when it comes to taking on trades, or act as a warning if the majority of traders on the position table are trading in the opposite direction.

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave Forex Market Analysis

Dollar Index Long Term Wave Analysis

The US Dollar Index (DXY) from last October shows signs of exhaustion of the bullish cycle that started in February 2016. What says us the Elliott Wave Principle about the next path of the US Dollar? In this article, we will discuss what to expect for the Greenback.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) from last October shows signs of exhaustion of the bullish cycle that started in February 2016. What says us the Elliott Wave Principle about the next path of the US Dollar? In this article, we will discuss what to expect for the Greenback.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) from last October shows signs of exhaustion of the bullish cycle that started in February 2016. What says us the Elliott Wave Principle about the next path of the US Dollar? In this article, we will discuss what to expect for the Greenback.

Fundamental Perspective

The Federal Reserve, during the last FOMC meeting, realized on December 11, decided to keep the interest rate at 1.75% by letting it unchanged for the second consecutive month.

The FED’s Chairman Jerome Powell, in his latest statement, indicated that the current monetary policy is adequate to sustain the expansion of economic activity in the United States. On the other hand, the labor market conditions remain stronger, and inflation continues in the 2% target.

In its projections for next year, the committee members do not visualize any further cut changes in the reference rate.

Technical Perspective

Dollar Index (DXY), in its weekly chart, shows the price action developing a downward corrective structure. This bearish structure began on January 03, 2017, when the DXY reached the level 103.82.

Until now, DXY has carried out two internal waves, which we identified as wave ((A)), and ((B)) labeled in black. In the weekly DXY chart, we observe that wave ((A)) progressed in five waves.

According to the Elliott Wave Principle, the formation developed by DXY should correspond to a corrective structure that presents the characteristics of a zigzag pattern. A zigzag formation is characterized by a 5-3-5 internal sequence.

The graph below shows the daily DXY chart, which reveals a bullish sequence that develops into three internal waves, labeled in blue as (A), (B), and (C), which corresponds to the complete movement of upper-degree, identified as wave ((B)).

Likewise, we recognize how the price developed a structure in the form of an ending diagonal, that in terms of the Elliott Wave Theory, appears typically in waves “5” or “C.”

On the other hand, the pierce and closing below the August 2019 low at 97.17, make us suspect that the price could be making a change from the upward cycle started in February 2018 to a downward trend.

This movement could start the third internal move of the corrective wave, which should be developed in five waves.

Our Forecast

The 4-hour chart shows DXY has completed its first bearish motive wave labeled as (1) in blue. Once its five internal segments has ended, the price bounded off from the level of 96.59 on December 12.

Short term, we expect a bullish rebound in three waves that could reach the zone between 97.94 and 98.44. From this zone, the Greenback could find sellers waiting to activate their short positions.

The long-term target is located in the zone of the 90 points as a psychological round-number level. Further, this zone is the area of the 2018’s lows. This target area coincides with the lower line of the downward channel.

The invalidation level of the bearish scenario is located at level 99.67, which corresponds to the highest level reached in early October 2019.

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX. Analysis, December 16 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eurozone’s PMI Figure Drives! 

The US Dollar Index was broadly flat at 97.17. The euro slipped 0.1% to $1.1121. Later today, research firm Markit will post December eurozone Manufacturing PMI (47.3 expected) and Services PMI (52.0 expected). The USD/JPY edged up 0.1% to 109.38.

The US Dollar Index was broadly flat at 97.17. The euro slipped 0.1% to $1.1121. Later today, research firm Markit will post December eurozone Manufacturing PMI (47.3 expected) and Services PMI (52.0 expected). The USD/JPY edged up 0.1% to 109.38.

The US Dollar Index was broadly flat at 97.17. The euro slipped 0.1% to $1.1121. Later today, research firm Markit will post December eurozone Manufacturing PMI (47.3 expected) and Services PMI (52.0 expected). The USD/JPY edged up 0.1% to 109.38.

Regarding U.S. economic data, retail sales rose 0.2% on month in November (below the +0.5% expected, +0.4% in October). Import prices increased 0.2% on month (as expected, -0.5% in October).

Later today, the Empire Manufacturing Index for December (5.0 expected) and the Markit US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (52.6 expected) will be reported.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

AUD/USD – Daily Analysis

The AUD/USD currency pair seen unchanged and consolidates in the narrow trading range between the 0.6875 – 0.6878. The currency pair remains depressed despite the fresh optimism over the Sino-US trade deal. As of writing, the Aussie currency pair is currently trading at 0.6875.

The AUD/USD currency pair picked up a buying near 0.6775 following the consumer spending data, which represented a rise in retail sales by 8% year-on-year during November, crossing the forecasted growth of 7.6% by a big range.

Industrial production rose 6.2% compared to an expected rise of 5%, marking an improvement from October’s 4.7%. Moreover, the People’s Bank of China has injected 300 billion Yuan into the system via a one-year medium-term lending facility. 

The AUD/USD currency pair did not succeed to gain on its early positive move and saw a dramatic intraday turnaround on Friday. Moreover, the uncertainty regarding the US President Donald Trump’s decision to cancel the December 15 tariff-hike on Chinese imports weighed heavily on the China-proxy Australian dollar, causing a drop in AUD/USD pair around 75 pips from an intraday high level of 0.6938 the highest since July 26.

The bullish sentiment remains weak, possibly due to the reports that Beijing is planning to lower its 2020 gross domestic product target to 6% from the current year’s 6.5%. 

Looking forward, the worries of a deeper recession in China in 2020 will likely continue to overshadow the phase one US-China trade deal and send the AUD lower.

Daily Support and Resistance  

  • S3 0.6759
  • S2 0.6824
  • S1 0.685

Pivot Point 0.6889

  • R1 0.6915
  • R2 0.6954
  • R3 0.7019

AUD/USD– Trading Tips

The AUD/USD pair is hanging around 0.6900, trading mostly bullish despite staying in the overbought zone. The traded higher further above the 0.6865 mark, the 61.8% Fibo retracement level of its November slide. In the 4-hour chart, the 20 SMA has hastened north over the bigger ones, all of them under the current mark. In contrast, the technical indicators lead to the north in overbought territory, without indications of bullish exhaustion. The rally is set to remain on a break over 0.6930, the next resistance.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair still found on the bullish track and remain supportive mainly due to the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson win who promised to leave the European Union (EU) swiftly before January 31, 2020. 

The GBP/USD currency pair traded bullish at 1.3388 and representing sizeable gains of +0.50%, having hit the high of 1.3398. By the way, the pair consolidates in the range between 1.3337 – 1.3398.

Prime Minister Johnson will welcome 109 new Conservative lawmakers to parliament and will repeat his promise to increase funding to the state health service on the day.

Moreover, the GBP/USD currency pair is also supported by the increased expectations of an improvement in the UK’s manufacturing sector activity, as the Markit Preliminary Manufacturing PMI for December is seen arriving at 49.4 against. 48.9 previous. The country’s Services PMI is expected to reach at 49.6 against. 49.3 last.

At the greenback front, markets still unexcited despite the details of the US-China Phase One trade deal. The US dollar index now tests the 97 handles, retreating from Friday’s highs of 97.24.

The GBP currency buyers will keep up the buying because the UK looks to clear the Brexit departure Agreement in the parliament before Christmas. In contrast, the Bank of England (BOE) may signal a willingness to change course on the monetary policy, with the United Kingdom election out of the way.             

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.3025
  • S2 1.32
  • S1 1.3267

Pivot Point 1.3374

  • R1 1.3441
  • R2 1.3548
  • R3 1.3722

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is presently consolidating around at1.3457, placing around 19-month high to 1.3515 during the US session yesterday. The UK election exit polls foretelling a big win for the incumbent Prime Minister Boris Johnson. 

The GBP/USD pair’s 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is now floating around 80.47. I must say it’s the highest mark since January 2018. An above 70-reading shows overbought situations. Consider capturing retracement below 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair hit the bullish track and representing some moderate gains mainly due to fresh trade optimism between the United States and China. As of writing, the currency pair is currently trading at 109.38 and consolidates in the range of 109.31 – 109.44.

Notably, the currency pair had some good 2-way price moves on Friday and was impressed by the full market risk-on sentiment, which turned out to be one of the major reasons that affected the Japanese yen’s as a perceived safe-haven status. 

However, the USD/JPY pair quickly reversed an early decline to sub-109.00 levels and recovered to multi-month highs in the wake of optimism of UK Parliamentary elections.

However, the bullish momentum failed near the 109.70 regions after the disappointing release of the United States’ monthly retail sales data, which kept the greenback buyers on the defensive.]The uncertainty regarding the United States President Donald Trump’s decision to cancel the December 15 tariff-hike on Chinese imports further helped to the pair’s intraday pullback of around 35-40 pips.

It should be noted that the USD/JPY currency pair finally closed unchanged for the day but succeeded in recovering some positive traction. That might have been due to the United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer’s comments on Sunday, saying that the phase-one Sino-US trade deal is done. Under the agreement, China said it would increase agricultural purchases due to the US’ decision not to attempt a new round of tariffs.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 108.42
  • S2 108.92
  • S1 109.13

Pivot Point 109.42

  • R1 109.63
  • R2 109.92
  • R3 110.42

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY rose 0.8% to 109.40 as investors’ risk appetite grew. The pair is heading towards the double top resistance level of around 109.700. Below this, the USD/JPY is likely to show a bearish correction of up to 38.2% level, which stays at 109.200. 

On the higher side, the bullish breakout of USD/JPY can lead the Japanese pair towards 110.300. The MACD and RSI are in support of the bullish trend. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Price Action Point and Figure

Point & Figure Introduction: The Problem with Japanese Candlesticks

Problems with Japanese Candlestick Analysis

Problems with Japanese Candlestick Analysis

Problems with Japanese Candlestick Analysis

One of the big buzz words or methodologies used in trading over the past ten years has been the term and/or style called ‘Price Action Trading.’ It is also known as ‘Naked Trading’ or, much less known as ‘Dynamic Impulse Trading.’ Price Action Trading is a style and methodology that teaches students to utilize candlesticks charts with no lagging indicators or oscillators. Students learn to utilize very little in the form of any tools beyond trend lines, subjective horizontal support/resistance, and pattern recognition. Not surprisingly, many people fail at Price Action Trading. I would venture that out of all the methodologies taught to new traders and analysts, Price Action Trading with Japanese candlesticks causes more new trader accounts to go bust than almost any other trading style or system.

The problem with Price Action Trading using Japanese candlesticks gets exacerbated the faster the time frame used. Japanese candlesticks are, believe it or not, a very advanced form of analysis that requires a significant amount of study to interpret and apply today’s financial markets properly. Traditionally, the application of Japanese candlesticks did not occur on fast time frames. Instead, they were limited to longer time frames such as weekly and monthly charts, and those are timeframes where the analysis, interpretation, and execution of Japanese candlesticks have very few equals. To make Japanese candlesticks work on fast time frames in modern markets requires the use of a myriad of supporting tools such as oscillators and indicators. The use of oscillators and indicators with Japanese candlesticks is necessary is because Japanese candlesticks are three-dimensional: price, time, and volume. Point & Figure only records price.

 

Point & Figure Analysis

For the Price Action Trader, no chart style is purer than Point & Figure because Point & Figure records only price. In Point & Figure Analysis, time is not measured or used, and volume is anecdotal. That may seem anathema to many traders, but it makes perfect sense from the perspective of a Point & Figure user. Because Point & Figure only records price moves, it makes sense why volume is anecdotal and not significant. If you think about it, the volume itself isn’t relevant unless there is a corresponding price move. Price is the only thing that matters. One of the greatest authorities and written works of Technical Analysis is de Villiers and Taylor’s Point and Figure Charting. They make a compelling case for the weight and authority of this chart and analysis style.

  • Point & Figure is logical in its application.
  • Simple and easy to master.
  • Point & Figure is void of mystery, guessing, and complications caused by subjective analysis.
  • News, economic reports, and other sources of market noise are not necessary.
  • Losses are limited while profits accrue – easy stop and profit target calculations.
  • Point & Figure signals are clear and unambiguous.
  • The method avoids and dismisses manipulation.
  • Inside information not necessary.
  • Volume manipulations are pointless and irrelevant.
  • Solo traders outperform professional money, proprietary trading firms, and traditional buy and hold investors with this method.
  • Insignificant price moves are ignored.
  • Support and resistance easy to identify.

 

Sources:

Dorsey, T. J. (2013). Point and figure charting: the essential application for forecasting and tracking market prices (4th ed.). Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons.

Kirkpatrick II, C. D., & Dahlquist, J.R. (2016). Technical Analysis: The Complete Resource for Financial Market Technicians (Third). Old Tappan, NJ: Pearson.

Plessis, J.J. (2012). Definitive Guide to Point and Figure – a comprehensive guide to the theory (2nd ed.). Great Britain: Harriman House Publishing.

DeVilliers, V., & Taylor, O. (2008). Point and figure charting. London: Financial Times/Prentice Hall.

 

 

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave Forex Market Analysis

NZDUSD Long Term Wave Analysis

The NZDUSD pair has shown signs of recovery in recent weeks. Have we to think in the buy-side for the coming weeks? In this article, we will review the probable next movement from the oceanic pair.

The NZDUSD pair has shown signs of recovery in recent weeks. Have we to think in the buy-side for the coming weeks? In this article, we will review the probable next movement from the oceanic pair.

The NZDUSD pair has shown signs of recovery in recent weeks. Have we to think in the buy-side for the coming weeks? In this article, we will review the probable next movement from the oceanic pair.

Fundamental Perspective

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), realized in November its last monetary policy decision, from where the policymakers kept the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 1%.

In the decision statement, Governor Adrian Orr stated that employment remains at high levels; however, inflation remains below the 2% target. Moreover, the RBNZ projections for the coming year 2020 pointed to stable interest rates at low levels so that inflation can be ensured to reach the target level.

The next meeting of the reserve will be in February 2020. As a consequence, the fundamental traders will have to closely monitor the evolution of macroeconomic data during the following two months.

Technical Perspective

From the technical point of view, the NZDUSD in its weekly chart moves sideways in a corrective process that found the first support in August 2015 at 0.61968.

During 2019, NZDUSD approached the lowest level of 2015, developing Elliott’s ending diagonal pattern, which found support at 0.62037 in early October.

According to the Elliott Wave Principle, a diagonal ending formation is an impulsive pattern that has an internal structure that is divided into 3-3-3-3-3. In turn, this formation can be found in a wave ‘5’ or ‘C’ within a corrective structure.

Once NZDUSD touched the level 0.62037, the pair found buyers and began to realize a bullish movement in three waves. The completion of this upward sequence makes us foresee the possibility of a new decline. Probably the next move will be in three waves.

Our Forecast

The NZDUSD pair in its 4-hour range shows the possibility of a corrective move to the area between 0.64647 and 0.64078. This zone could bring us the opportunity to incorporate us in the potential long-term next rally.

The invalidation level is placed at 0.62028, which corresponds to the lowest level reached by the NZDUSD in October 2019. Our long-term target is at 0.7558 level.

Finally, depending on the retracement level of the NZDUSD, the corrective sequence will reveal to us the strength or weakness for the next path.

Categories
Forex Videos

Bonus Brokers Are For Jokers – Forex Bonus Debunked

https://youtu.be/jHTO0BEy4xs

https://youtu.be/jHTO0BEy4xs

Bonus Brokers Are For Jokers – Forex Bonus Debunked

The number of retail forex brokers is growing year on year. Currently, there are over 1300 of them out there, all vying for the business of the estimated 9.6 million online traders.
Just like the majority of food retailers who offer loss-leading products to get buyers into their stores, retail forex brokers know they have to offer incentives to get traders on their books. Typically, forex brokers will offer inducements such as sign-on bonuses, commission rebates, no deposit bonuses, and the offer of cash rewards when certain targets are hit by traders. Some also offer demo account trading competitions with prize money on offer to the most successful traders. And of course, all of these are subject to the company’s terms and conditions.


One of the most common types of inducements is a $25 – $50 account opening bonus, where new accounts are credited with $25 or $50 after an application has been accepted, and where traders can commence trading having not deposited any money, and where they get to keep any winnings on the account, suffer no losses, but they do not get to keep the $25 or $50 bonus. This is just a simple tool to offer free margin and get traders out of the starting blocks and up and running.


Another type of inducement looks – on the face of it – to be far more generous and goes something like this: the trader deposits funds of $10,000 and is offered a 10% cash bonus on successful opening and closing of 200 standard lots. This sounds great until you actually drill down a little more into the offer because 200 lots equate to approximately 2000 mini lot trades of $1 per pip, or 1000 of $2 per pip, which is fairly typical of new retail traders.
Therefore, if you traded 5 x $1 mini lots per day, it would take 400 days or over 13 months to turn over the equivalent of 200 lots at that rate! Coupled with that, some such brokers will have a clause that stipulates that there should not be a drawdown on the account of more than 20%. So, who is likely to ever see this bonus? Well, certainly none of the 70% of retail traders who statistically lose all of their deposited funds in the first six months. And of the other 30%, let’s say about 5% might be good enough to achieve the above criteria.

Because of the high turnover of retail traders, and the growing number of emerging brokers, there will always be similar offers from brokers going around to keep new traders coming onto their books, while the losers are going off. It’s a simple marketing ploy to try and mitigate client loss with new sign-ups.


But in real terms, the brokers are offering very little. Essentially, of the above examples, you do not get to keep the $25 or $50, and it means your trading leverage only allow you to trade a few cents per pip, and as for the $1000+ cash bonus, well it really is a commission or spread rebate in sheep’s clothing. But hey- it is advertised as a bonus, and if you can meet the criteria, it is certainly worth having. And so when we take out all these bells and whistles, what is left? Well, the following are the most important issues new traders should really be worrying about, and here are some questions that they should be asking their prospective broker:

Are they an ECN broker who passes trade orders on to third parties, or, will you be trading against the broker, which is what most spread betting firms do? Do they offer tight spreads and instant execution with low latency and low slippage? Do they charge a commission on top of their spreads? If yes, do these commissions, when added to the spread, equate to an average all-in spread of around $1 per pip for the major pairs, which is fairly typical of some of the better-known brokers? Do they offer customer support, which will respond immediately, and which is exactly what you would need in a crisis? You might also want to ask them who their liquidity providers are because the more there are, the better the liquidity the broker will have, and this will mean that these providers will have done their homework on the broker too. The number on thing that concerns us here at Forex.Academy is the enormous amount of turnover of retail traders, data from the US securities regulator for October shows that Interactive Brokers lost 30% or $5 million of retail FX funds in recent months, this can only mean that retail traders are losing money, fast.

Here at Forex.Academy, our message is clear. Learn how to be a professional trader, and ensure you are winning consistently. We have all the lessons to help you become the successful trader you deserve to be. And they are all freely available!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Gold Develops Ascending Triangle Pattern – U.S. Retail Sales in Play! 

On Friday, the precious metal is trading a bit calm after exhibiting dramatic movement, placing a high of around 1,484 to a low of 1,462. Despite weaker than expected macroeconomic data from the United States, the U.S. dollar remained a bit strong on Thursday as the trade optimism increased.  

On Friday, the precious metal is trading a bit calm after exhibiting dramatic movement, placing a high of around 1,484 to a low of 1,462. Despite weaker than expected macroeconomic data from the United States, the U.S. dollar remained a bit strong on Thursday as the trade optimism increased.  

On Friday, the precious metal is trading a bit calm after exhibiting dramatic movement, placing a high of around 1,484 to a low of 1,462. Despite weaker than expected macroeconomic data from the United States, the U.S. dollar remained a bit strong on Thursday as the trade optimism increased.  

The U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted on Thursday that “Getting VERY close to a BIG DEAL with China. They want it, and so do we!”. Which raised the hopes for completion of the phase-one trade deal sooner, and riskier assets gained traction.

Besides, another positive gesture by the United States was an offer made to China as part of a phase one deal. The U.S. negotiators offered to cut the existing tariffs and not to impose the latest round of tariffs in exchange for U.S. agricultural purchases from China and better intellectual property rights.

They offered to decrease existing tariffs by half in return for large U.S. agricultural purchases from China. So far, China has not responded but has argued that binding in a written agreement for investments would be against WTO rules and would also harm Chinese companies.

Gold – XAU/USD – Daily Technical Levels

Support     Resistance 

1,460.28     1,483.1

1,450.74     1,496.37

1,427.92     1,519.18

Pivot Point 1,473.55

Technically, gold has formed an ascending triangle pattern, which is keeping the XAU/USD supported over 1,462 level. A bearish breakout of this can trigger further selling until 1,455, but that significant movement isn’t expected on the U.S. retail sales until and unless we see a dramatic deviation in figures. 

On the higher side, 1,480 is likely to be the next resistance area for gold. So we can play within this limited range, selling at the top and buying at the bottom. Good luck! 

Categories
Candlestick patterns Forex Basic Strategies Forex Trading Strategies

Pairing The Hanging Man Candlestick Pattern With MACD Indicator

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

The Hanging Man is a visual candlestick pattern which is used by traders and chartists in all type of markets. The term ‘Hanging Man’ refers to the shape of the candlestick. Visually the hanging man looks like a ‘T,’ and it appears in an uptrend. The formation of this candlestick is an indication that the uptrend is losing its strength. Meaning, sellers started showing interest, and the current trend of an asset is going to get reversed. Anyone can easily predict from the name of this pattern that it is viewed as a bearish sign.

The Hanging Man candle composes of a small body and a long lower shadow with little or no upper shadow. The vital point to remember is that the hanging man pattern is a warning of the upcoming price change, so do not take it as a signal to go short. Also, trading solely based on one pattern is risky. To confirm the sign given by the Hanging Man pattern, traders must pair it with support resistance or any other trading indicator.

This pattern is not confirmed unless the price falls shortly after the Hanging Man. If the next candle closes above the high of the Hanging Man, this pattern is not valid. After the pattern, if the very next candlestick falls, then it’s a clear indication of the reversal. Now, if you see a Hanging Man candlestick and the above-discussed rules apply, you can go ahead and take the trade. But since it is crucial to have an extra confirmation, let’s pair this pattern with a technical indicator.

Pairing the Hanging Man Pattern With MACD Indicator

In this strategy, we have paired the Hanging Man pattern with the MACD indicator so that we can filter out the low probability trades. MACD stands for Moving Average Convergence and Divergence, and it is one of the most popular indicators in the market. It is essentially an oscillator that is used for trading ranges, trend pullbacks, etc. Also, this indicator identifies the overbought and oversold market conditions. In this strategy, we are using the default setting of the MACD indicator to identify the trades.

Step 1 – Confirm the uptrend first on your trading timeframe

We can’t use the Hanging Man pattern to take the buy trades. Since it is a reversal pattern, it only signals the selling trades. So first of all, find out the uptrend in any currency pair. One more primary thing to remember when trading this pattern is this – After finding a clear uptrend, if you see the market printing the Hanging Man, then try not to trade that pair. Because, in a strong trend, it’s not easy for a single candle to change the direction of the entire trend. But if you find this pattern when the uptrend is a bit choppy, it has higher chances to perform. As we can see in the image below, the uptrend in USD/CHF was not strong enough.

Step 2 - Find out the Hanging Man pattern on your trading timeframe

Some traders use two or three timeframes to trade patterns. But that’s not the right way of pattern trading. If you are an intraday trader, use only lower timeframes to identify the pattern. So the next step here is to find out the Hanging Man in this chart. Also, apply the MACD indicator. For us to go short, the MACD indicator must be in the overbought area.

As you can see in the image below, the USD/CHF Forex pair prints a Hanging Man pattern. This is the first clue for us that the buyers aren’t able to push the market higher. Soon after the crossover happened on the MACD indicator, we can say that this forex pair is in the overbought condition. So now, two forces are aligned, and they are indicating us to go short. Within a few hours, the pair rolls over, and it prints brand new lower low.

Step 3 – Entry, Take Profit & Stop Loss

We go short as soon as we see the Hanging Man candlesticks and MACD indicator at the overbought area, we can go short. In this pair, buyers were quite weak, and this is an indication for us to place deeper targets. As we suggest in every strategy, often close your position at significant support/resistance area, or when the market starts to print the opposite pattern. In this pair, we closed our full trade at 0.9844. Overall it was 7R trade, and we made nearly 140+ pips.

Placing the stop loss depends on what kind of trader you are. Some advanced traders use their intuition to close their positions, while some use logical ways such as checking the power of the opposite party. In this trade, we know that the buyers are not strong enough, so there is no need to use the spacious stop loss.

Difference Between Hanging Man and Hammer Patterns

The Hanging Man and Hammer both look the same terms of size and shape. Both of these patterns have long, lower shadows and small bodies. But the Hanging Man forms in an uptrend, and it is a bearish reversal pattern. Whereas the Hammer forms in a downtrend, and it is a bullish reversal pattern. These two patterns appear in both short and long term trends. Do not use these patterns alone to trade the market. Always use them in conjunction with some other reliable indicators or any other trading tool.

Bottom Line

Most of the professional traders never see this pattern alone as a predictor of a potential trend reversal. Because there will be times when the price action continues to move upward even after the appearance of the Hanging Man. Hence technical indicator support is required to confirm the reversal of the trend. Make sure to stick to the rules of the pattern so that you can use it to your advantage. This pattern forms in all the timeframes, but we suggest you master it on a single timeframe first. Cheers!

Categories
Forex Price-Action Strategies

Risk-Reward and Its Impact on the Price Behavior

Risk-reward is an essential factor in price action trading. When the price makes a breakout and produces a signal, the first thing traders are to calculate is risk-reward. It does not matter how the price heads towards a direction, significant higher high and lower low are to be calculated. These are what determine risk-reward. In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of how risk-reward may have an impact on the market.

Risk-reward is an essential factor in price action trading. When the price makes a breakout and produces a signal, the first thing traders are to calculate is risk-reward. It does not matter how the price heads towards a direction, significant higher high and lower low are to be calculated. These are what determine risk-reward. In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of how risk-reward may have an impact on the market.

Risk-reward is an essential factor in price action trading. When the price makes a breakout and produces a signal, the first thing traders are to calculate is risk-reward. It does not matter how the price heads towards a direction, significant higher high and lower low are to be calculated. These are what determine risk-reward. In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of how risk-reward may have an impact on the market.

The above chart is a daily chart, in which the price action produces a Double Top along with an Inside Bar, and its neckline is not too far. The sellers are to wait for a breakout at the neckline and go short on the pair. Let us flip over to the H4 chart.

The H4 chart produces an Inside Bar as well as the reversal candle. However, the price heads towards the neckline with good bearish momentum. If the price makes an H4 breakout, the sellers may go short up to the last swing low on the H4 chart. The daily support, however, lies a bit further down.

The price is right at the neckline level. It is at a critical level since the last candle closes right at the neckline level. It could go either way from here. Let us see which way it heads.

A massive breakout takes place here. However, look at the last swing low. The price is adjacent to it. This means risk-reward is not lucrative at all. Traders must not sell from here on this chart.

It makes a breakout, which is fantastic. However, the black marked level is daily support. The sellers may take a short entry from here, but that is on the H4-H1 chart combination.

As expected, the price heads towards the daily support, and it produces a bullish reversal candle. It made such a strong bearish move, but the daily-H4 chart combination traders have not found any entry because of the risk-reward issue. If the daily-H4 combination chart traders found an entry, the bearish move would have been more consistent. Let us find out what happened next.

The price heads towards the level sellers were waiting for the price to make a breakout at first. This one is another inconsistent move on this chart. That means an inconsistent move may bring another inconsistent one. To sum up, we could conclude by saying that the risk-reward factor may make the price inconsistent to some extent.

Categories
Forex Videos

Forex Academy Education For Absolute Beginners Session Five – Becoming A Professional Trader

 

 

Forex.Academy Education For Absolute Beginners – Session Five

 

Thank you for joining Forex.Academy Education For Absolute Beginners – Session Five.
In session three, we demonstrated that by using technical analysis in forex trading will greatly stack the odds in your favour. And in session four, we covered the importance of how the study of a country’s economy, in the form of fundamental analysis, is also a key aspect that professional traders observe.


Another area which is of great importance is timing, both the time of day and timing when it comes to executing your trades. I am sure you will have been to a party that started at 8 p.m, and began fairly lively enough, and then picked up a little more an or so later as more people arrived, and by 11 p.m. when even more guests arrive, the party was in full flight. Forex trading also has it’s lively, or volatile times during the day, especially during the morning session of each of the respective countries’ time zones. For example, European institutions, who are the big guns and who mostly are the cause of the markets to move about, arrive at their desks at around 7 AM CET, followed by London at 7 AM GMT, and then the US markets open at 7 AM EST and they are followed by Chicago a couple of hours later, and then the Asian markets at around 11 PM GMT, and please allow for seasonal clock changes. The point is, the more people trading simultaneously, the more money in the system, and the likelihood for more volatility.
The market can also become extremely volatile around the time of economic data release of each country, as we discussed in section 4. Therefore new traders are advised to be receptive when it comes to trading around these times due to huge volatility and the possibility of huge movements or swings in the price of a currency pair.


The really cool thing about forex trading is that there are a number of tools that you traders can use to automatically stop trades at a chosen point to mitigate against losses. But the best friend for a new trader is a demo account, which allows novice traders to learn how to trade in real market conditions, but without risking their own funds. The bottom line is if you cannot trade and make money consistently on a demo account, you will not be able to make money trading on a real money account. Here at Forex.Academy, we recommend a good educational grounding, which we provide free of charge, and then we recommend practice, practice, practice.

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 12 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – U.K. Voting and ECB in Play! 

 

 

The U.S. dollar declined versus other major currencies as the Fed signaled that interest rates could be stable at current levels through 2020. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index sank to 97.08, the lowest level since August.

The euro rose 0.4% to $1.1133. The European Central Bank is expected to keep its monetary policy unchanged later today.

As expected, the Federal Reserve maintained the rates after cutting them at three earlier meetings. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated that monetary policy is well-positioned for the expanding economy, where the jobs market is expected to remain strong and inflation moderate.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair slightly recovered in the last hour in the wake of inflation data released from the United States, which made the EUR/USD pair weaker. As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading 1.1094 but virtually unchanged daily near the 1.1090 handles. 

The data published by the United States (U.S.) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Wednesday showed that the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the United States stayed unchanged at 2.3% every year during November. Although these figures came in line with the market expectation, the initial reaction caused the U.S. Dollar Index to drop to a fresh session low below the 97.50 marks.

Despite this, the EUR/USD currency pair may not pick up bid further in the coming hours because traders are unlikely to take large bets before the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee monetary policy announcements. However, investors don’t see the Federal Reserve cutting rate again; the updated economic projections will provide fresh hints regarding the rating outlook in 2020. 

After the FOMC event, investors’ eyes will shift to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) meeting and President Lagarde’s first press conference on Thursday.

According to the ECB event, we will not see the steady bullish progress in the EUR currency because policy continuity should be the main takeaway. Lagarde’s style and sound is a wild card. Preventing an early misstep there, the slight declines we see to growth may be offset upgrades to next year’s inflation forecast.

At the Fed front, the Federal Reserve is expected to keep the Fed Funds rate stable at the 1.50 – 1.75% range. After cutting interest rates 3-times in a series, for now, market participants see no change today and also at the January meeting. Most members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) mentioned they think the current stance of policy appropriate. 

Looking forward, the Federal Reserve will announce its decision regarding monetary policy today at 19:00 GMT. Chairman Jerome Powell will read a statement and will hold a press conference at 19:30 GMT. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.102
  • S2 1.1043
  • S1 1.1054

Pivot Point 1.1066

  • R1 1.1076
  • R2 1.1089
  • R3 1.1111

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD has crossed over its 5-month downtrend at 1.1113. The EUR/USD is trending higher but has not gained any support until now. The EUR/USD has next support near 61.8% Fibonacci support level of 1.1105.  

While the resistance stays around 1.1190, and the 1.1225 horizontal resistance mark strictly follows it. Considering the recent crossover on MACD, the pair may trade bearish below the 1.1100 level today. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair dropped but recovered a significant part of its early declines to weekly lows manly in the reaction to the latest election polls results. As of now, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading near the 1.3179 and consolidates in the narrow range between 1.3108 – 1.3188 after the Fed holding rates steady yet signaling that there will not be a change in rates in 2020, something quite to the contrary of Fed watchers.

The pair continued the previous session’s late pullback from over eight-month highs and saw some follow-through long-unwinding trade on Wednesday in the wake of the latest U.K. election poll, which tilted towards a hung parliament.

A closely watched YouGov’s poll based on the MRP model showed a narrowing lead for Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party, now expected to win a majority of 28 seats in the parliament, falling sharply from 68 last month.

The slight pick up in the greenback demand, despite the uncertainty of President Trump regarding the phase-one trade deal between the United States and China, further collaborated to the pair’s intraday slide to the 1.3100 neighborhood.

No:1 Key takeaways from FOMC statement and projections

No:2 The market has priced in virtually no chance of rate move through February.

No:3 IOER 1.55% vs 1.55% prior.

No:4 Fed drops language about ‘uncertainties about this outlook remain.’

No:5 The vote was unanimous.

No:6 The Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook, including global developments and muted inflation pressures, as it assesses the appropriate path of the target range for the federal funds rate.”

No:7 No changes in the economic outlook paragraph*

No:8 Says, “the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate.”

No:9 Leaves forecasts for GDP and inflation unchanged lowers 

unemployment.

No:10 The median forecast is for one rate hike in 2021 and one in 2022.

Looking forward, we are now counting down to the U.K. election vote for Thursday, where results are expected to come in from around 0200 GMT onwards. Pound Sterling has been improving because of yesterday’s YouGov outcome that proved the Conservative’s lead was narrowing. 


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.3056
  • S2 1.3104
  • S1 1.3124

Pivot Point 1.3153

  • R1 1.3173
  • R2 1.3202
  • R3 1.325

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBPUSD is displaying a solid bullish bias as traders seem confident about the victory of the Conservative party and assume Boris Johanson to win the election. The GBP/USD may persist massively volatile today, and a day after, as the election result will start reaching out by tomorrow morning. On the higher side, the GBP/USD is expected to find resistance around 1.3265 and 1.3336. While the support can be seen near 1.3185 and 1.3110.

The RSI and MACD are in the bullish zone, signaling chances of a bearish correction, but then the Sterling will be found to do more upward movement. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair initially hit the bullish track and rose to 108.76 and the reversed falling to 108.57, the new daily bearish level after the decision of the Federal Reserve to keep the rate unchanged. As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 108.60, slightly lower as compared to previous before the statement.

The greenback dropped across the bard and hit the fresh bearish levels. The U.S. Dollar Index dropped under 97.30, the lowest level since November 4. The United States’ yields moved to the downside, and equity prices in Wall Street rose but remain under the highs. 

At the Sino-US front, the clock is ticking because we close in on the deadline on the so-called ‘phase- one’ deal and/or tariff delay by December 15. We are awaiting an announcement from U.S. President Donald Trump to come before the weekend’s deadline. Moreover, the news yesterday that tariffs would be delayed caused a short period of risk-on in the markets. Still, the news was unconfirmed, and Trump’s closest advisers tell the decision is finally depend on the president.

Daily Support and Resistance    

  • S3 108.06
  • S2 108.31
  • S1 108.43

Pivot Point 108.56

  • R1 108.68
  • R2 108.8
  • R3 109.05

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Thursday, the dovish FOMC and weaker U.S. dollar have driven sharp selling in the USD/JPY currency pair this week. For now, the pair is trading above 108.550, which is working as a double bottom support level.

A bearish breakout of this level can trigger selling until 108.250. The USD/JPY has already completed 81% retracement on three hourly charts, and this level can give some support to USD/JPY. Above this, the pair may find resistance around 108.900. Let’s wait for NFP to determine the further trend of USD/JPY. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Steady Movement In Gold – Eyes on FOMC & Fed Rate Decision Today 

On Wednesday, the price of the precious metal gold moved in a tight range as cautious traders back out from big bets before of U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy statement following in the day and amid an imminent tariff deadline.

On Wednesday, the price of the precious metal gold moved in a tight range as cautious traders back out from big bets before of U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy statement following in the day and amid an imminent tariff deadline.

On Wednesday, the price of the precious metal gold moved in a tight range as cautious traders back out from big bets before of U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy statement following in the day and amid an imminent tariff deadline.

The Small Business Index from the U.S. National Federation of Independent Business (NIFB) was released. The report showed an increased figure in the month of November to 104.7 from the expected 103.1, which supported the greenback.

At 18:30 GMT, the Revised Non-Farm Productivity for the third quarter was released and came in as -0.2% against the expectations of -0.1%. The Revised Unit Labour Costs for the third quarter from the United States dropped to 2.5% from the expectations of 3.4%.

According to the analysis of Chinese & U.S. data, China has bought more U.S. soybeans between September and November this year, giving an excellent gesture to try to reach an initial agreement on trade. The Chinese imports of U.S. soybeans increased 13 times from the previous year’s same period.

However, Chinese officials are hopeful that the U.S. will delay a threatened tariff increase due on Sunday as both countries are focused on the de-escalation of trade tensions. Traders are keeping an eye on a specific move from China or the U.S. in the development of trade deal to react accordingly.

Investors are also waiting for the forecast of U.S. economic growth from policymakers who are attending a two-day meeting of Federal Reserve, which will end on Wednesday. Federal Reserve is expected to hold its interest rates unchanged in this meeting. On Wednesday, the Consumer Price Index from the United States will be released, which is expected to drop to 0.2% from the previous month’s 0.4%.

Gold – XAU/USD – Trade Plan

This week, the precious metal gold hasn’t exhibited major movements as most of the market awaited the U.S. CPI and FOMC figures. Gold is stuck in a tight trading range of 1,467 – 1,459.  

On the 4-hour timeframe, gold is forming neutral candles within the same range of 1,467 – 1,459, which is signaling a lull before the storm. Gold is also gaining support around 1,459, and it’s extended by a bullish trendline while the RSI and MACD stay around 50 and 0, respectively. 

Gold – XAU/USD – Daily Technical Levels

Support    Resistance 

1,459.88      1,469.07

1,455.37      1,473.74

1,446.19      1,482.92

Pivot Point 1464.56

A bearish breakout of 1,458 can lead to gold prices towards 1,452 level. Alternatively, the bullish breakout of 1,467 can lead it towards 1,471 and even higher. Looks like, traders are going to keep trading choppy session until the CPI and FOMC is released tomorrow. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 11 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Brace for FOMC & Fed Rate!

The forex market extends trading sessions mostly with the mixed sentiments as the trader’s eye remains on the Fed Policy decision and CPI rate today. The FOMC will publish its policy statement, and Chairman Powell will be giving his comments on the policy standpoint. Ahead of this event, the U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.22% at 97.45 on Tuesday, supporting the pair stay relaxed above the 0.6800 handles. 

The forex market extends trading sessions mostly with the mixed sentiments as the trader’s eye remains on the Fed Policy decision and CPI rate today. The FOMC will publish its policy statement, and Chairman Powell will be giving his comments on the policy standpoint. Ahead of this event, the U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.22% at 97.45 on Tuesday, supporting the pair stay relaxed above the 0.6800 handles. 

The forex market extends trading sessions mostly with the mixed sentiments as the trader’s eye remains on the Fed Policy decision and CPI rate today. The FOMC will publish its policy statement, and Chairman Powell will be giving his comments on the policy standpoint. Ahead of this event, the U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.22% at 97.45 on Tuesday, supporting the pair stay relaxed above the 0.6800 handles. 

Today, the trader’s focus will stay on the U.S. Monetary Policy and CPI rate from the U.S. Let’s brace for it. 

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals. 

AUD/USD – Daily Analysis

The AUD/UD currency pair flashing green and rose to 0.6835, mainly due to the upbeat data from Australia and unexpectedly higher inflation figures from China. As of writing, the AUD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.6814 and consolidates in the range between the 0.6800 – 0.6837.

The currency pair struggled to maintain its recovery rally due to a lack of progress surrounding the United States and China trade war and fell to a fresh weekly low of 0.6800 before recovering modesty.

The National Australia Bank’s Business Conditions Index remained unchanged at 4 in November, but it beat the expectations of 2. On the other, the annual House Price Index for the third quarter came in at -3.7%, after a second quarter’s figure of -7.4%, which supported the Australian Dollar.

In the second half of the day, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that the U.S. and China’s trade negotiators are working toward delaying the December 15 tariff hike. That gave a boost to the market sentiment and trade-sensitive AUD.

During the Asian session on Wednesday, Westpac Consumer Confidence Index from Australia, which is expected to drop to -0.7% in December from 4.5% in November, will be keeping under the eyes. 

Following in the day, the FOMC will release its policy statement, and Chairman Powell will be delivering his remarks on the policy outlook. Ahead of this event, the U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.22% at 97.45 on Tuesday, supporting the pair stay relaxed above the 0.6800 handles.

While reviewing Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, “after three cuts in a series, we expect the Fed to remain on hold (target range 1.50-1.75%) when it meets next week,” said Danske Bank analysts. “FOMC members have made it clear that they think the ‘current stance of monetary policy is appropriate’ and that they now want to wait some time and see how everything plays out before acting again.”


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 0.6795
  • S2 0.6811
  • S1 0.6817

Pivot Point 0.6826

  • R1 0.6833
  • R2 0.6842
  • R3 0.6858

AUD/USD– Trading Tips

On Wednesday, the AUD/USD is consolidating mostly bearish after falling below 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 0.6820. It has also completed 50% Fibonacci retracement at 0.6795. The AUD/USD pair is now trading around 0.6808, in between the upper limit of 0.6820 and a lower limit of 0.6795. 

 A bearish breakout of 0.6795 level can extend selling until 0.6775. The MACD is holding below 0, suggesting the chances of a bearish trend continuation in Aussie. Let’s look for buying above 0.6775 and selling below 0.6820level. 

 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair flashing green and hit the seven-months high from the bearish level of 1.3132 to 1.3189 while heading toward the United Kingdom elections on Thursday, and the result of elections will be released early Friday morning. As of writing, the currency is currently trading at 1.3188 and consolidates in the range between the 1..3132 to 1.3197.

According to the current situation, the Tories are ready to win the U.K. election, which may put the Brexit deal to bed. Today, the United Kingdom’s economic data don’t take a front seat due to the election hype, despite flat figures for Gross Domestic Produce for October. 

The GDP figures have followed 2-consecutive monthly contractions, which means we have now seen 3-consecutive months of negative/zero m/m growth for the 1st-time since 2009.

It should be noted that after this week’s snap December election, the next difficulty for the United Kingdom markets is next week’s Bank of England decision. However, the United Kingdom data continues to fall at a moderate rate since the last BoE meeting, which drives the dovish sentiment regarding the next rate decision. 

Looking forward, the markets will keep their focus on the Federal Open Market Committee and the Federal Reserve after the interest rate decision. Rates are expected to remain stable at 1.50-1.75%, while patience rhetoric will follow previous Federal Reserve speeches and statements furnished with preconditions before rate cut again in the future. 

    

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.3056
  • S2 1.3104
  • S1 1.3124

Pivot Point 1.3153

  • R1 1.3173
  • R2 1.3202
  • R3 1.325

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The cable pair holds a bullish tone, but it is showing some short-term bearish signals after being unable to stay on top of 1.3160. Nevertheless, the trend in the pair points clearly to the upside, and consolidation of the GBP/USD above 1.3180 would expose the pair towards 1.3200. The prices need to cross May month high near 1.3180 to target 1.3200 and 1.3270 figures to the north, declining to do so highlights Wednesday’s top surrounding 1.3120 as immediate support. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair hit the bullish track and reached 108.75, mainly due to the Wall Street Journal reported that the United States and China trade talks are working toward delaying the tariff hike. After fastening to a fresh daily bullish of 108.75, the pair USD/JPY currency pair reversed slightly and was last seen trading at 108.62, where it was up 0.05% on a daily chart.

The U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators are planning for a delay of a fresh round of tariffs set to impose on December 15, according to officials on both sides. The market reaction to this headline also provided the ten-year United States Treasury bond yield to cancel its daily losses and helped the S&P 500 futures to move into the positive territory, pointing out to a positive shift in the market sentiment.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index remains to move sideways a little above the 97.50 marks to allow the risk perception to continue to drive the pair’s action.

At the starting of today, the NFIB Business Optimism Index in the U.S. increased to 104.7 during November from 102.4, but the Unit Labor Costs rose 2.5% in the 3rd-quarter to drop short of the market expectation for an increase of 3.3%. But, these readings were largely ignored by the market members ahead of the FOMC’s monetary policy announcements on Wednesday. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 108.06
  • S2 108.31
  • S1 108.43

Pivot Point 108.56

  • R1 108.68
  • R2 108.8
  • R3 109.05

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Wednesday, the USD/JPY is likely to trade sideways until the release of FOMC and U.S. inflation rates. The pair is trading above 108.550, which is working as a double bottom support level. A bearish breakout of this level can trigger selling until 108.250. The USD/JPY has already completed 81% retracement on three hourly charts, and this level can give some support to USD/JPY. Above this, the pair may find resistance around 108.900. Let’s wait for FOMC to determine the further trend of USD/JPY. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Course

34. Refresher – Margin Trading & All The Topics Involved

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

We have discussed all the terminologies and concepts related to Margin Trading in the previous articles. In this article, let’s get a quick recap of all these terms with the help of examples.

Let’s go through the steps involved in margin trading with the help of these terms. This exercise will help you in understanding how all of these terms are interrelated.

Let’s say Tom wants to margin trade GBP/USD currency pair. Below is the step-by-step procedure that he should follow.

Step 1: Balance

To start taking positions in his margin account, Tom must first deposit some amount. So, let’s say he has deposited $1,000 in his margin account. Once this amount gets deposited, Tom’s Balance will be $1,000.

Step 2: Required Margin

After depositing, if Tom wishes to go long on GBP/USD, he must know the Required Margin to open a position. Assuming the price of GBP/USD is 1.3150, and he wants to open 10,000 units, the Required Margin, if the Margin Requirement is 2%, is,

Required Margin = Notional Value x Margin Requirement

In terms of USD, Notional value = 10,000 pounds x $1.3150 = $13,150

Hence, the Required Margin will be,

Required Margin = $13,150 x 0.02 (2%) = $263

Step 3: Used Margin

As we know, when there is only one position open, the Used Margin will be equal to the Required Margin. So, here, the Used Margin of Tom’s margin account will be $263.

Step 4: Equity

Initially, let us say that Tom’s trade is in breakeven (no profit no loss). The Equity for this can be obtained using the below formula,

Equity = Balance + Floating P/L

= $1,000 + $0

Hence, Equity = $1,000

Step 5: Free Margin

From Equity and Used Margin, we can calculate the Free Margin as well. It is the simple difference between the two.

Free Margin = Equity – Used Margin

= $1,000 – $263

Thus, the Free Margin turns out to be $737.

So, this is the amount Tom has left to take new positions.

Step 6: Margin Level

Taking another step forward, we can calculate the Margin Level as,

Margin Level = (Equity / Used Margin) x 100%

= ($1,000 / $263) x 100% = 380%

Hence, the Margin Level is 380%. This is an important term for brokers as they use it to determine Tom’s eligibility to take new positions. Because both the Margin Call Level and Stop Out Level fixed by the brokers will be considering the Margin Level of Tom’s Margin Account.

The values that will be changed after the price changes are Notional value, Used Margin, Floating P/L, Equity, Free Margin & Margin Level.

Now, let’s say the price of the GBP/USD dropped to 1.1000. Let us calculate the changes in the values.

Notional value

Notional value = 10,000 pounds x $1.1000

Notional value = $11,000

Used Margin

Used Margin = Notional value x Margin Requirement

= $11,000 x 0.02 = $220.

Floating P/L

(Entry Price = 1.1800)

Assuming the pip value to be $1, the Floating P/L for a movement of 800 pips will be,

Floating (Unrealized) P/L = (Current price – Entry price) x pip value

= (1.1000 – 1.1800) x 10,000 x $1

= -0.08 x 10,000 x $1

From the above calculation, the Floating P/L will be = (– $800)

Equity

Similarly, Equity will change to

Equity = Balance + Floating P/L

= $1,000 + (-$800)

Hence, the Equity will be $200.

Free Margin

Free Margin = Equity – Used Margin

= $200 – $220 = (–$20)

Margin Level

Margin Level = (Equity / Used Margin) x 100%

= ($200 / $220) x 100%

Hence, we obtain the Margin Level to be 90%.

Now, if you recall the previous two lessons, at this point, Margin Call will be initiated by the broker. And a further fall could lead to Stop Out as well.

In case if the Margin Call Level is the same as the Stop Out Level, then Tom’s Used Margin will be released, and the Floating Loss will be realized. Also, Tom’s Balance will be updated accordingly. We hope it all makes sense now. Check your learning by taking the quiz below.

[wp_quiz id=”51961″]
Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Dec 10 – JP Morgan launching its blockchain network in 2020

The crypto market has its first red day after a green weekend. Most cryptocurrencies ended up in the red. If we look at the past 24 hours, Bitcoin’s price decreased by 1.76%. It is now trading for $7,353. Meanwhile, Ethereum lost 0.43%, while XRP fell 2%.

The crypto market has its first red day after a green weekend. Most cryptocurrencies ended up in the red. If we look at the past 24 hours, Bitcoin’s price decreased by 1.76%. It is now trading for $7,353. Meanwhile, Ethereum lost 0.43%, while XRP fell 2%.

The crypto market has its first red day after a green weekend. Most cryptocurrencies ended up in the red. If we look at the past 24 hours, Bitcoin’s price decreased by 1.76%. It is now trading for $7,353. Meanwhile, Ethereum lost 0.43%, while XRP fell 2%.

The biggest top100 crypto gainer for today is Chainlink, with gains of 10.85%. On the other hand, the cryptocurrency that lost the most today was Matic Network, which lost 50.4% of its value.

Bitcoin’s dominance stayed at the almost exact place when compared to where it was yesterday. Its dominance is currently 66.56%, which represents an increase of 0.03% from yesterday’s value.

The cryptocurrency market’s market capitalization dropped in the past 24 hours. The market cap is currently at roughly $199.46 billion. This value represents an increase of $4.7 billion against the value it had on yesterday.

What happened in the past 24 hours

JPMorgan announced the launch of its blockchain-based payment network for the Japanese market in early 2020. The payment network is based on JPMorgan’s in-house blockchain platform, Quorum. The Interbank Information Network (IIN) wants to improve payment transactions as well as data sharing between banks.

Bloomberg’s report says that over 80 Japanese banks have a serious intent to join the platform. Out of the 365 total members that announced to join the platform, over 20% are Japanese banks.

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

After a great weekend, Bitcoin came back to almost the exact same spot it was in before it. The biggest cryptocurrency managed to lost its gains and fall under the $7,415 resistance, which is now turned support. The price is now consolidating between the $7,415 resistance and $7,314 Fib retracement line which is now acting as support. The immediate support line got tested twice, but held up both times.


Bitcoin’s volume spiked during the price drop but is now normalizing at lower levels. Its RSI levels fell down from being close-to overbought and normalized as well.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $7,415                                           1: $7,314

2: $7,565                                           2: $7,240

3: $7,828                                           3: $7,120

Ethereum

Ethereum followed Bitcoin once again, which became almost a daily occurrence whenever big moves happen. Ethereum bulls stepped in and brought the price above the resistance of $150.5 over the weekend. After that happened, Ethereum immediately had a small level retesting, but the real test was ahead (as we reported yesterday). As the bears gathered and pulled the price down, the $150.5 resistance did not hold up, and Ethereum went under it.


Ethereum’s volume is currently really low relative to the previous days. Its RSI is in the middle of the value range.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $150.5                                             1: $144.1

2: $155.8                                            2: $133.5

3: $161.1                                            3: $128.9

Ripple

It’s underwhelming to say that XRP broke its uptrend. After a whole week of a steady increase in price, it dropped significantly and lost around 40% of its gains from the whole uptrend move. After a sudden burst towards the upside on Dec 8, the price reached $0.234 but quickly started falling due to bulls not having enough buying pressure. The downward-facing move continued, and XRP’s price dropped from $0.234 all the way down to $0.222. However, this key level held up, and the price stabilized, at least for the time being.


There was no volume increase when this price-drop happened, which is quite interesting. XRP’s RSI value also returned to the bottom half of the range.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $0.2267                                          1: $0.222

2: $0.234                                            2: $0.2182

3: $0.2351                                          3: $0.2145

Categories
Forex Economic Indicators Forex Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental Analysis – A Brief Introduction

Most traders just focus and use technical analysis (TA) to make trade decisions, but they forget that trading is connected with value. The perceived value of an asset is what makes the market move up and down. And the perception of that value by the market is directly related to the fundamental information available.

Most traders just focus and use technical analysis (TA) to make trade decisions, but they forget that trading is connected with value. The perceived value of an asset is what makes the market move up and down. And the perception of that value by the market is directly related to the fundamental information available.

Most traders just focus and use technical analysis (TA) to make trade decisions, but they forget that trading is connected with value. The perceived value of an asset is what makes the market move up and down. And the perception of that value by the market is directly related to the fundamental information available.

Fundamental Analysis is simply a type of market analysis which involves studying the economic or political position of a country in order to be able to assess the relative value of currencies more effectively. In a nutshell, Fundamental analysis is the study of economic factors that influence foreign exchange rates to predict future prices.

Traders studying macroeconomic data of the major economies and try to interpret the economic events, news, and press releases with the aim of predicting future moves a currency can make. Traders must also take into account the microeconomics of a country, such as supply and demand, consumer expending, and unemployment to assess the macro trends in the currency markets and always be on the right side when trading.

Also, the different scheduled news releases that are the benchmark for fundamental analysis can create price shocks in the market when the figures do not match the analysts’ consensus. Therefore, it is critical, also, to keep track of the Economic Calendar to avoid the potential volatility the news event can produce.

So when embarking on doing your own fundamental analysis, there are a few economic indicators considered key underlying drivers. Let’s have a short glance at these basic economic indicators.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

The GDP data is used primarily to gain insight into a country’s economic strength, is calculated annually, and the broadest measure of a country’s economy. It is a representation of the value of all goods and services produced within that country over a defined period of time. The GDP data is one of the Economic Indicators which is closely monitored as it represents a countries contraction or expansion in a straightforward way, allowing the Trader to see whether a country is experiencing rapid growth or going into recession. The GDP growth rates from quarter to quarter can be the driving factors in the performance of a given currency.

Interest rates

The interest rate is one of the most critical factors that drive the Forex market. The interest rate of a country helps us to determine how the central bank is responding to the economic factors present in that country at the time. When a country is experiencing consumer inflation, the central bank will increase interest rates to curb inflation. When a country’s growth weakens, it will reduce the interest rates to spur economic growth. When a central bank changes interest rates, it creates movement in the market. It causes volatility, and if you are armed with an accurate prediction can lead to a beneficial outcome on a specific trade.

Inflation rate

Another piece of fundamental analysis data that one needs to look at is the inflation rate. This is the rate at which goods and services are valued, which changes over time. We measure inflation at both the consumer level and producer level. The producer level is defined as wholesale companies, and the consumer level is defined as households and consumers. A high rate of inflation can cause a currency value to rise as traders anticipate a rise in interest rates. The central bank, to protect consumers from excessive inflation, tends to increase the interest rates. This reduces the spending power that consumers have and thus reducing the price of goods and services.

Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate is an indication of that country’s workforce that is actively seeking employment or are currently unemployed. If a country has a high unemployment rate, then it would be considered a weakening economy and lead to the currency deprecating. Low unemployment rates indicate a strong economy and increase the demand for the currency.

The Debt-to-GDP Ratio

The debt to GDP ratio is the ratio of the public debt that a country has compared to its Gross domestic product. If a country is unable to pay back its debt, it will default, and a financial panic may erupt. The usual bar set for GDP growth is 77% if it exceeds this amount over an

Balance of trade (BOT).

The balance of trade is defined as the difference between the value of a country’s imports and exports over a set period of time. The BOT is used by economists to measure the strength of a country’s economy. A Sustained trade deficit is considered bad for the economy. Therefore, it will also hurt the valuation of its currency, whereas a strong surplus on the BOT will drive the price of the country’s currency higher.

Current account to GDP

Two components make up a country’s Balance of Payments, the current account, and capital account. The current account consists of the trade balance, the net factor income, and net cash transfers, which are all measured in the domestic currency.
When the account balance of a country is positive, that country is referred to as a net lender to the rest of the world. When the account balance is in the negative, then the country becomes a net borrower to the rest of the world. This ratio of the current account balance to the Gross Domestic Product (or % of GDP) provides the country’s ability to pay back its debt and is an indication of the country’s competitiveness in world markets.

In conclusion, when fundamental analysis data is used correctly, it is an invaluable resource for any forex trader. By looking at the bigger picture of how a country is performing, it gives an insight into how the market will move, allowing you to profit from your trades.

Categories
Forex Basics Forex Price-Action Strategies

A Story of a False Bullish Breakout

In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of a short entry that is derived from a false breakout. It contains two lessons. Let us get started.

In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of a short entry that is derived from a false breakout. It contains two lessons. Let us get started.

In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of a short entry that is derived from a false breakout. It contains two lessons. Let us get started.

The price heads towards the North and makes an upside breakout. The buyers are to keep their eyes on the pair to go long upon consolidation and bullish reversal candle at the breakout level. Let us find out what happens next.

Wow! This is a copybook corrective candle, which closes right at the breakout level. A bullish reversal candle followed by a breakout at the highest high would get the buyers engaged in buying the pair.

The buyers might not have even thought about it. They are to let the sellers dominate in the pair, while sellers should wait for the breakout confirmation and a bearish reversal candle to go short on the pair. However, they have to calculate that the last swing low is not too far.

The price keeps going towards the South without having apposite consolidation. It consolidates just before the support. The price has been bearish but has not offered any short entry on this chart. Meanwhile, it has made another bearish breakout. The sellers shall be hopeful again. Look at the chart below.

This is an explicit breakout, and the next candle confirms it. The consolidation and the price breakout at the lowest low would be a signal to go short. Let see what the price does this time.

Price action traders have been waiting for this. The price consolidates and makes another breakout. By setting Stop Loss above the resistance, an entry may be triggered right after the last candle closes.

This is how it goes. The price produces consecutive four bearish candles. The very last candle comes out as an Inside Bar. Most traders may come out with their profit; some may still hold their trade by locking some profit.

 Lessons

We learned two lessons from here

  1. False breakout usually drives the price towards the opposite direction.
  2. Risk-reward is always a factor. It does not offer an entry within the first support since risk-reward is not lucrative. It offers an entry on the second breakout, where there is not support nearby.

The Bottom Line

In the beginning, it may sound too many things to remember in price action trading. It is right to some extent. However, if we practice hard, study with the recent price behavior on the chart with as many pairs as we can, surely it will get easy for us.

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 10 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eyes on British GDP Figures! 

The market continues to trade mixed risk sentiment due to diminishing expectations of no interest rate cuts by the Fed and delay in the trade deal. The top White House Economic Adviser, Larry Kudlow, confirmed on Friday that the December 15 deadline to impose new tariffs on around $156 billion worth Chinese products remains in place.  

The market continues to trade mixed risk sentiment due to diminishing expectations of no interest rate cuts by the Fed and delay in the trade deal. The top White House Economic Adviser, Larry Kudlow, confirmed on Friday that the December 15 deadline to impose new tariffs on around $156 billion worth Chinese products remains in place.  

The market continues to trade mixed risk sentiment due to diminishing expectations of no interest rate cuts by the Fed and delay in the trade deal. The top White House Economic Adviser, Larry Kudlow, confirmed on Friday that the December 15 deadline to impose new tariffs on around $156 billion worth Chinese products remains in place.  

At the same time, he also said that the U.S. President Donald Trump is satisfied with the recent progress in trade discussions. Yet he is not looking to go with the current phase one trade deal. 

Today, the trader’s focus will stay on the British GDP and further events from the Eurozone. Let’s brace for it. 

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair continues its bullish moves mainly due to the greenback’s bearish reversal across the board and weaker United States Treasury yields. As of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading near the 1.1064 and consolidates in the narrow range between the 1.1053 – 1.1078.

Besides, the currency pair picked up the fresh buying during the last hour, in the wake of the revived trade war between the United States and China. The dismal of China trade data also depressed the market mood.

The lowered demand for higher-yielding assets such as the Treasury yields pushed the U.S. dollar broadly lower. The USD index corrects Friday’s positive U.S. payrolls led upsurge to 97.84, now trading at session lows of 97.63, -0.15% on the day.

Even after the recent bullish moves, the currency pair still in the red zone because the greenback may remain supported by the stronger United States employment data that diminished the 2020 rate cut expectations by the Federal Reserve.

At the ECB front, the European Central Bank (ECB) President Largerde will deliver her first speech as a president regarding monetary policy during this Thursday. She will likely provide a hint about the ECB’s commitment to the recent stimulus package that included a rate cut and the restarting of the quantitative rate cut(Q.E.) program.

Meanwhile, the markets now await the Eurozone Sentix Investor Sentiment data, which is de during the European session today. Better-than-expected German Trade and Current Account data also collaborate with the positive tone around the shared currency.

Furthermore, the investor’s confidence in the Eurozone increased sharply in December, despite rising US-China trade tensions and the German slowdown, the latest data published by the Sentix research group showed on Monday.

The quote climbed to +0.7 in December from -4.5 in November and against a figure of -4.9 expected. The investors’ confidence hit the highest since March 2018.


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.093
  • S2 1.1
  • S1 1.1031

Pivot Point 1.107

  • R1 1.1101
  • R2 1.1141
  • R3 1.1211

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD has disappointed in its first test of the 5-month downtrend at 1.1113. The EUR/USD is trending lower but has not gained any support until now. The EUR/USD has next support near 61.8% Fibonacci support level of 1.1040.  

While the resistance stays around 1.1070, and the 1.1075 horizontal resistance mark strictly follows it. Considering the recent crossover on MACD, the pair may trade bearish below the 1.1070 level today. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair flashing red and representing declines to 1.3135 from the highest level since early April of 1.3180 after the release of a new poll ahead of the snap December elections in the United Kingdom. The Cable experienced a slight bearish reversal on Monday and mostly traded at 1.3155/60, up 20 pips for the day. 

The GBP/USD currency pair was seen on the bullish track on Monday, but it remains under 1.3200. The GBP continues to be supported by the polls showing a top position of the Conservatives Party. Just minutes ago, the fresh opinion poll by ICM revealed that the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johson’s Conservative Party remain unchanged at 42%. In contrast, support for the party rose by 1 point to 36%. The Tory slightly pushed lower the GBP in advance.

The reversal in the GBP/USD currency pair was limited as the volatility remain low, and the U.S. dollar continued to show slight bearish bias. 

Looking forward, the critical event in the U.S. will be the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Analysts and traders are also focusing on trade progress as the December 15 deadline for hiking tariffs on Chinese goods remains in highlights. 


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.3004
  • S2 1.3069
  • S1 1.3103

Pivot Point 1.3134

  • R1 1.3168
  • R2 1.32
  • R3 1.3265

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On the technical side, the cable pair holds a bullish tone, but it is showing some short-term bearish signals after being unable to stay on top of 1.3160. Nevertheless, the trend in the pair points clearly to the upside, and consolidation of the GBP/USD above 1.3180 would expose the pair towards 1.3200. 

The prices need to cross May month high near 1.3180 to target 1.3200 and 1.3270 figures to the north, declining to do so highlights Wednesday’s top surrounding 1.3120 as immediate support.

In the daily timeframe, the GBP/USD has an upward crossover on MACD. Lastly, the three white candles on the daily timeframe are suggesting bullish bias among traders. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair hit the five-days low below the 108.50 ahead of important macroeconomic events. The pair struggle to stage a recovery on Monday and was last seen trading at 108.49, a few pips above the 5-day low that it set at 108.43 in the last hour.

The economic figures showed that the business sentiment grew slightly during November with the Eco Watchers Survey’s Outlook and the Current indexes both coming out better than their October figures.

Looking forward, the trader will keep their eyes on the fresh progress surrounding the United States and China trade talks. If both sides could make a deal and sign the phase-one of the trade deal ahead of the United States tariff hike on Chinese imports on December 15, a relief rally will likely cause the Japanese Yen to lose interest as a safe-haven and support the pair gain bullish moves.

The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be publishing its monetary policy decisions on Wednesday. In contrast, the FOMC is not expected to make any changes to its policy rate. It will be interesting to see how the Fed estimates the positive Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. 

Last week on Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 266,000 during November to cross the market expectation of 180,000 and provided a boost to the U.S. Dollar Index. Consequently, the USD/JPY pair got bullish support. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 futures are virtually unchanged on the day, hinting that Wall Street is likely to open flat to reiterate the neutral market sentiment.


Daily Support and Resistance   

  • S3 107.85
  • S2 108.26
  • S1 108.44

Pivot Point 108.68

  • R1 108.85
  • R2 109.1
  • R3 109.51

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Tuesday, the demand for haven assets and weaker U.S. dollar has driven sharp selling in the USD/JPY currency pair this week. For now, the pair is trading above 108.550, which is working as a double bottom support level.

A bearish breakout of this level can trigger selling until 108.250. The USD/JPY has already completed 81% retracement on three hourly charts, and this level can give some support to USD/JPY. Above this, the pair may find resistance around 108.900. Let’s wait for NFP to determine the further trend of USD/JPY. 

All the best!

Categories
Candlestick patterns Forex Daily Topic

Candlestick Trading Patterns III – The Doji, The Most Critical Candle

The Doji

The Doji

The Doji

The Doji is a special candle, not only because of its striking appearance but also because it is one of the most vital signals in trading. This figure is so important that we need to understand it very well, as it is one of the safest trading signals when properly applied.

Fig 1 – A Doji on a chart

The Doji is characterized by having the open and close at the same level while standing out for its elongated upper and lower shadows. The figure of the Doji has a precise meaning. Buyers and sellers are in a state of mental indecision. The Doji is a powerful sign of trend change. The probability of a turn increases if in addition to the Doji:

  1. The next candles confirm the Doji’s signal
  2. The market is overextended
  3. The chart does not have many Doji.

The perfect Doji has the same open and close values. Nevertheless, if both levels are separated a few pips, and the candle can still be seen as a single line, it can be considered as Doji.

The Doji is a powerful signal to detect market tops. Steve Nison says that a dog is a sign of indecision by buyers, and an upward trend cannot be sustained by undecided traders. Nison also points out that, from his experience, the Doji loses some reversal potential during downtrends. That observation may apply to the stock market but is useless in pairs trading, as they are symmetric. In this case, a bullish trend of a pair is a bearish pare on the inverse pair and vice-versa. So a Doji will always have a similar meaning: The trend is compromised.  When trading commodities, indices, or stock ETFs the trader should take this into account, though.

In view that a Doji is such a powerful signal, it is better to act upon it. Better to attend a false signal than ignore a real one. Therefore, dojis are signals to close positions, since a Doji alone does not mean a price reversal.

The Northern Doji

The northern Doji is called a Doji that shows up during a rally. According to Mr. Nisson, ” The Japanese say that with a Doji after a tall white candle, or a Doji in an overbought environment, that the market is “tired.” Therefore, as said, a Doji does not mean immediate market reversal. It shows the trend is vulnerable.

 

FIg 2 – Down Jones Industrial Average showing northern Doji.

As we can see in the chart above, a Doji after a large candle, as in the first case, is followed by a gap and a drop to the base of a previous candle that surged after a gap.  The next Doji we see was an inside bar that just acted as a retracement and continuation. In the third case, we can see two Dojis, the second being a kind of hanging man with no head. In this case, we notice that the third bearish candle is the right confirmation of the trend reversal. It is not uncommon to observe tops depicting several small bodies, one of which is a Doji.

The Long-legged Doji

Fig 3 – Long-legged Doji in a SPY Daily chart.

We already know that a small body and long upper and lower shadows is called a high wave candle. If the figure doesn’t have a body is called “long-legged Doji,” and also called “rickshaw man.” As it happens with high-wave candles, it reflects great confusion and indecision.

Gravestone Doji

The gravestone Doji is the Doji that begins and ends at the low of the day. According to Stephen Bigalow, the Japanese name is set to represent “those who died in the battle.” Gravestone Dojis are a rarity.

Fig 4 – Long-legged Doji in the UK-100 Daily chart.

 

Dragonfly Doji

The Dragonfly Doji occurs when the price moves down since the open, and then it comes back and closes at the open. When it happens after an uptrend is a variant of a hanging man.

Fig 5 – Long-legged Doji in the DAX-30 Daily chart.

Conclusions

Dojis are important figures that warn trend reversals, especially if it happens at support or resistance levels.

Dojis need confirmation for trend reversals. When that happens, they create morning star and evening star formations. They also are followed by other small bodies, creating a flat top or bottom.

A safe precaution when encountering these figures while a trade is active is to close or reduce the position or, alternatively, tight the stops.

 

Sources:

Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques, Second Edition, Steve Nison

Stephen Bigalow, Profitable Candlestick Signals

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Gold Bounces Off Amid Safe Haven Appeal – What’s Next?

During the Asian and European sessions, the precious metal gold surged as traders hedged against a possible intensification in the U.S.-China trade conflict before a Dec. 15 deadline for fresh U.S. tariffs.

During the Asian and European sessions, the precious metal gold surged as traders hedged against a possible intensification in the U.S.-China trade conflict before a Dec. 15 deadline for fresh U.S. tariffs.

During the Asian and European sessions, the precious metal gold surged as traders hedged against a possible intensification in the U.S.-China trade conflict before a Dec. 15 deadline for fresh U.S. tariffs.

Overall, the precious metal remains under pressure in the wake of a stronger U.S. dollar. The Average Hourly Earnings from the United States Bureau of Labour Statistics was published, which showed a decline in November to 0.2% from the expectations of 0.3% and weighed on the U.S. dollar.

The Non-Farm Employment Change for November showed growth to 266K from expected 181K and supported the U.S. dollar. The Unemployment Rate of the United States also declined in November to 3.5% from previous & expected 3.6% and added in support of the U.S. dollar.

Besides, the Preliminary Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan also came in favor of the U.S. dollar as 99.2 against the expectations of 97.0. The Final Wholesale Inventories for October were also in favor of the U.S. dollar when released as 0.1% against the expectation of 0.2%. The Preliminary Inflation Expectations from the University of Michigan showed a drop this month to 2.4% from the previous 2.5%.


Gold – XAU/USD – Daily Technical Levels

Support      Resistance 

1,452.48      1,474.11

1,444.81      1,488.08

1,423.18      1,509.71

Pivot Point 1,466.44

Gold is likely to trade bullish above 1,459, which is working as a horizontal support level. The closing of Doji and Inside up bar patterns are suggesting chances of a bullish reversal in gold. 

It looks like gold is trying to capture a bullish retracement, and it has completed 23.6% Fibo corrections at 1,464. This level is now extending substantial resistance to gold. 

The bearish breakout of 1,459 can lead to gold prices towards 1,450. While bullish trend continuation can lead to gold prices to 1,471, I will be staying bearish below 1,466 today. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Chart Basics Forex Daily Topic

Caution! A Big Round Number Ahead

In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an event to find out what the price may do around the big round number. A big round number plays a significant role as far as traders’ psychology is concerned. The price usually gets volatile around a big round number. It may get tough for the traders to find out entries around the big round number. Let us now dig into USDCHF recent activities around the big round number 1.00000.

In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an event to find out what the price may do around the big round number. A big round number plays a significant role as far as traders’ psychology is concerned. The price usually gets volatile around a big round number. It may get tough for the traders to find out entries around the big round number. Let us now dig into USDCHF recent activities around the big round number 1.00000.

In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an event to find out what the price may do around the big round number. A big round number plays a significant role as far as traders’ psychology is concerned. The price usually gets volatile around a big round number. It may get tough for the traders to find out entries around the big round number. Let us now dig into USDCHF recent activities around the big round number 1.00000.

The price is heading towards the North with good bullish momentum. Look at the last candle. This is one good bullish candle, which states that the buyers are dominating the pair. Do you notice anything unusual here?

Here it is. The candle breaches through the level of 1.00000. As a trader, you must not miss such a big round number. Now that the price makes a breakout, you are to wait for the breakout confirmation and a strong bullish reversal candle to go long on the pair. This might be one of the best trades in your trading life if things go accordingly.

The price comes back in. However, it still looks all right for the buyers since if we consider the spikes at the last swing high. A bullish engulfing candle closing above the last bearish candle would be the buying signal. On the other hand, if it keeps going towards the downside, the sellers may take over the baton.

The price does not produce any bullish momentum. For the last four H4 candles, it could go either way. Traders are to wait patiently since this is the game around a massive round number.

Here it comes. It has now become sellers’ territory. The candle forms right at the level of 1.00000. The level could have been a level of support. It is now a level of resistance. The sellers on the minor charts keep going short; on this chart, they are to wait for consolidation and downside breakout to ride on the next bearish wave.

It consolidates and produces a sell signal after four H4 candles. The last H4 candle suggests it may be time for the price to consolidate again. An explicit bullish breakout at the level of 1.00000, did not work for the buyers. It could happen at any level, but when we deal with a massive round number, we happen to see it more often.

The Bottom Line

The market runs on many aspects, and traders’ psychology is one of them. Many traders set their Stop Loss and Take Profit at round numbers. Thus, the price may get extra volatility around a big round number. We may get breakout even on the H4 chart, which may turn out to be a fake breakout. We must remember this every time we see a big round number.

 

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Forex Videos

Forex Academy Education For Absolute Beginners Session Three – Becoming A Professional Trader

https://youtu.be/R-5dYUd_5uE

https://youtu.be/R-5dYUd_5uE

Forex.Academy Education For Absolute Beginners – Session Three

 

Thank you for joining us for session 3 of forex trading for absolute beginners. Forex Academy has all your forex trading educational needs from complete novice through to professional trader, and it’s all free to our followers!

In session 1 and 2 we mentioned that Forex trading is very similar to gambling when trading with no understanding of how the market works, and where the odds can be stacked in your favor and where Forex trading becomes a profession when novice traders take the time to learn the ropes before opening a live trading account and diving in.
We also mentioned that Forex is mostly traded by using Technical Analysis, where traders use tools they drag onto their screen charts in order to visually see when markets are going up or down, and trade accordingly.

Example A


In Example A, we can see a line graph chart of the exchange rate of the British pound, with the black line showing the price moving up and down against the US dollar, AKA GBP:USD. On the face of it, it looks extremely erratic.

Example B

Let’s take a closer look in example B, where we have drawn some arrows showing the pair moving up and down, but it would be almost impossible to know when to trade.

Example C


But in example C, where we have changed the line graph for coloured bars, which are known as candlesticks, we can clearly see that the red candles help us to see when the price is moving down, and the green ones help us to identify with the price is moving up, such as in example D.

Example D

Example E


In example, E, we have added our first technical analysis indicator, which is called a stochastic oscillator. This tool tells traders when a pair may have gone too high or too low, which are also known as periods of overbought and oversold. It is clear to see that when the redline of the stochastic has moved to a high point and then crossed over the green, and they are both moving down, that the price of the pair moves lower, and when the green has crossed over the red after they have moved to a low, then the currency pair moves higher.
Here are just two simple tools that traders use to stack the odds in their favour.
But none of this would be any use at all without another aspect of trading, which we will discuss in session 4.

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Forex Elliott Wave

Forecasting with the Elliott Wave Principle

The analysis and forecast process of any financial asset can support the decision process to take any positioning on the market. However, the time dedicated to developing it could increase the cost of the trade as this grows on time. In this educational article, we will review how to analyze and make a forecast by applying the main concepts of the Elliott Wave Principle.

The analysis and forecast process of any financial asset can support the decision process to take any positioning on the market. However, the time dedicated to developing it could increase the cost of the trade as this grows on time. In this educational article, we will review how to analyze and make a forecast by applying the main concepts of the Elliott Wave Principle.

The analysis and forecast process of any financial asset can support the decision process to take any positioning on the market. However, the time dedicated to developing it could increase the cost of the trade as this grows on time. In this educational article, we will review how to analyze and make a forecast by applying the main concepts of the Elliott Wave Principle.

The Elliott Wave Principle in a Nutshell

R.N. Elliott, in his work The Wave Principle, identified a nature’s law that governs everything, from nature to human socio-economic activities. Elliott comments that the financial markets are the most important socio-economic activity, so, when someone understands that law, he can get forecasts about the phenomena under study, the financial markets, in this case.

In this context, Elliott described that price moves in two types of movements impulses and corrections, and at the same time, the price tends to repeat some specific structures and sequences.

On the one hand, impulsive movements create trends and follow a sequence of five waves. On impulses, three waves move in the direction of the primary trend and two in the opposite direction.

On the other hand, a corrective movement consists of three waves; two of them will be in the opposite move to the main trend.

This eight-waves movement creates a cycle, and when it is complete, a new cycle of the same degree will start. In other words, when a five-waves and three-waves movement is complete, a new cycle of the same extension will take place.

Elliott gave intensive importance to corrections and told us the position of the market and the outlook. Elliott’s experience drove him to identify four main types of corrections as zigzag, flat, irregular, and triangles.

Making Simplifications

In the two latest articles, we discussed how we could simplify corrective patterns in the wave analysis using some chartist patterns as flags and triangles. Also, we commented on how it can help us in our study, reducing the time elapsed to develop a forecast and, finally, a trading plan.

The Analysis Process

The basic methodology to carry on the market analysis is to analyze from a higher to lesser time frame. In other words, we can start the study from a monthly range and finish in the hourly chart. Once we have identified the market structure, we begin to define scenarios that have a probability of occurrence. The scenarios are relevant to the analysis process because, using them, we can evaluate all possible price paths and decide which one of them is the most probable.

The Heating Oil Triangle

The following chart corresponds to Heating Oil in its weekly timeframe. In the figure, we observe the bullish sequence developed in three waves, which began on January 17, 2016, at $0.8552 per gallon. The energy commodity reached its highest level on October 03, 2018, at $2.4496 per gallon.

Once Heating Oil reached its high at $2.4496, the price started to make a bearish move, that found support at $1.6436 per gallon on January 02, 2019.

After that descent, the asset found buyers at $1.6436, Heating Oil’s traders started doing market swings. We can observe this as a triangle structure, as shown in the next daily chart.

According to the Elliott Wave Theory, we know that a triangle structure has five internal segments which follow a 3-3-3-3-3 sequence. However, there is the possibility that the triangle pattern does not build a fifth inner leg.

Now, let us identify some scenarios for the next path on Heating Oil.

  • Scenario 1:The price moves down and crosses the base-line of the triangle (dark orange arrow), with a first potential profit target at $1.6719, and a second target at $1.4339 per gallon.
  • Scenario 2 (blue arrow) considers that Heating Oil drops and, then, bounces off from the base-line, but does not surpass the previous high at $2.0994. From there, the price action begins a new bearish wave that would drive the energy commodity to $1.6719 per gallon.
  • Scenario 3 (black arrow), considers that the price overcomes the resistance determined by the upper-line of the triangle and the invalidation level at $2.1374.

Conclusion

As we discussed in this article, the time dedicated to analyze and forecast a financial market is a valuable resource that could increase or reduce the hidden cost of the potential trade. As occurs in mathematical models, valid simplifications can help the analyst to reduce the time to a decision process.

Flags and triangles are simple and basic formations that can ease the market study.

Finally, the formulation of different scenarios provides a wide range of options about the next potential paths of the price action. Also, these scenarios create different answers facing the question of what if the market does that?

Categories
Forex Videos

Forex Academy Education For Absolute Beginners Session Two – Becoming A Professional Trader

https://youtu.be/T5CoQYsexYc

https://youtu.be/T5CoQYsexYc

Forex.Academy Education For Absolute Beginners – Session Two

Thank you for joining us for session 2 of forex trading for absolute beginners. Forex Academy is
your one-stop-shop for all your educational needs when it comes to trading currencies.
In session one, we alluded to the fact that trading is like gambling. However, when you walk into a casino, I think we can all agree that the odds are pretty much stacked in the houses’ favor. And also, gambling on football match outcomes and where people also bet on corners, throw-ins, and the next goal scorer. Again the bettings shops are the ones making the millions because, in gambling, the odds are completely stacked in favor of the betting companies.


The reason why forex trading is often seen as gambling is that a high percentage of new retail customers lose all of their money within the first six months of opening a trading account. In fact, it is over 70%. The majority of these individuals do little or no research and simply have a ‘punt’ on a trade as if they were in a casino or betting on a football match outcome. And of course, subsequently, go on to lose all of their money. New retail traders forget one simple thing: currency trading is a profession. The money markets are run by professional people; many of them are extremely well educated with finance-related degrees.


However, there is still plenty of room for retail traders to consistently make money in Forex, no matter what level of education, as long as they take the time to learn about the various aspects which go into trading. Those that do become traders will have taken the time to educate themselves about the Forex market, and those that cannot be bothered to learn will remain as gamblers.

Let’s give you an example of how retail forex traders regularly make money. If you saw a limousine driving down the street with somebody throwing money out of the window, the next thing you would see would be hundreds of people following that limousine and picking up all the cash.


Simply put, institutional traders move the markets because of the huge amounts they trade with. But they leave a trail of cash for retail traders to pick up in the form of trends that appear on our computer screens. These trends are the limousine driving down the street leaving money for everyone else to pick up
Because these trends are the basis of patterns that recur time after time on traders’ screens. Professional traders and retail traders alike are now becoming more dependent on using chart based tools to decipher these patterns, which, when followed correctly, will stack the odds are in their favor by up to 70%.

This type of trading is called technical analysis. And over 90% of the time, forex trading is done by technical analysis. That’s right, billions of dollars exchange hands, often affecting countries’ economies, and it is largely based on screen patterns! Only when new traders learn all that there is to know about trading with technical analysis, only then they will become professional traders and not gamblers.

Here at Forex Academy, our educational courses have been put together by ex institutional traders and market professionals, and we will take you through the knowledge process, step by step, to help you on your way to becoming a Professional Trader. So take your time and enjoy the ride.

Categories
Forex Videos

Forex Academy Education For Absolute Beginners Session One – Becoming A Professional Trader

https://youtu.be/llluFYdKTWc

https://youtu.be/llluFYdKTWc

Forex.Academy Education For Absolute Beginners – Session One

Hello, and welcome to Forex Academy, your one-stop shop to complete education in foreign exchange currency trading, which is also known as Forex or FX.


The foreign exchange market is a global network of banks, financial institutions, governments, and retail traders who take advantage of the 5 trillion dollars that are traded every day in the foreign exchange market.

Many of the larger institutions buy and sell, or exchange currencies – which are always traded in pairs – and many other financial firms and also retail traders simply trade based on whether a currency pair is going up or down. If they place a buy trade and a pair goes up, they make money, and if they place a sell trade and the pair goes down, they also make money. And that is what happens most of the time, currency pairs go up and down against each other continually. And so traders bide their time and pick their moments to take on a trade.


Now while this may sound very daunting, if you think about it, you have probably been on holiday to a different country and spent some time shopping around online or at travel agents looking for the best currency exchange rate to give you more buying power on your holiday. In which case congratulations, you have already been trading currencies. I expect that a lot of you may have also enjoyed gambling at some time, perhaps at the roulette wheel in a casino, or playing cards such as Black Jack, and maybe you got lucky and made a little bit of money, however, typically the odds are stacked against you, and it’s a fact that the House always wins in the end.

But, what if you could go to a casino where the odds were stacked in your favor, of course, you would be very interested in that opportunity? Welcome to currency trading because if you take the time and effort to learn how to trade correctly, you can stack the odds in your favor when you trade currencies.

OK, the thought of spending a lot of time learning a new specialist subject might not seem like a lot of hard work, but if you think about it you will not strip down a car engine without first taking a mechanics course, and you wouldn’t take out a horse’s appendix without first going on a comprehensive vet’s course. And currency trading is no different. There is a lot to learn. However, the more you learn, the better trader you will become.

And here at Forex Academy, we have a wealth of education to pass on to you so that you can stack the odds in your favor and learn to trade currencies like a professional.

Categories
Forex Videos

Advanced Forex Education – Technical Analysis Trading With Confluence

https://youtu.be/v3Bzlu4y_uE

https://youtu.be/v3Bzlu4y_uE

Advanced learning on technical Analysis – trading with technical confluence

As a financial trader in the forex market, we are looking for evidence that underpins our trading decisions and ensures our decision making is correct and that, therefore, the tools we use are stacking the odds in our favour. When these technical tools are aligned, this is called technical confluence. This is where price action and technical indicators converge and help us to make informed decisions. The clearer the indication pointing to directional movements, the better idea we will have to trade-off of our technical analysis charts.

Technical confluence is when we have at least two technical elements on the same chart. And because we are not gamblers, traders look for confluence to strengthen the case before making trading decisions. However, different traders look at different technical signals over different time frames. And this is why trading is inherently risky. But the good news is that all traders are looking at the same price movement and assimilating the same economic data, and therefore, all that we can do is take this into consideration and look for the best high probability setup we can achieve.
Let’s look at some technical confluence trading opportunities.

 

Example A

 

Example A is a 5-minute time frame chart of the USDJPY pair, with price action as denoted by Japanese candlesticks. It looks like initially, the market was trading sideways and then took on a bullish momentum around the middle of our chart. Let’s try and identify if technical indicators foresaw the push higher.

Example B


In example B, we have drawn a line of resistance and a line of support which confirms consolidation or sideways trading, and this is confirmed by at least two attempts to push through these areas in both directions.

Example C


In example C, we have added a relative strength index (RSI) which is a technical indicator used in the analysis of the historical strength or weakness of a currency pair based on the opening and closing prices over a set amount of candlestick, in this case 14, and is defined as being weak when it hits the 30 line and strong when it reaches the 70 line. Price often reverses or pulls back from these key levels.
Our RSI initially touches the 30-line at the extreme left of our chart and then begins a slow ascent. At position 5 our RSI is showing most of its momentum to the upside, and price action is also maintaining its momentum to the upside and towards our area of resistance. Price action continues upwards and punches through the area of resistance, and this then becomes an area of support. Price action continues in a bullish tone from this point. This was a trade opportunity and was confirmed by price action and the RSI, plus our support and resistance lines. Therefore, this area of confluence presented a bullish trade signal to buy at position 5 with a stop loss just below our original support line.

Example D


In example D, we have now identified the low of the move at point 1 and the high of the move at point 2. The area at point 2 would suggest to our earlier buyers that price action might be topping out here and for two technical reasons: Firstly our RSI almost touches the 70-line, and also our candlesticks have pierced the Bollinger bands, which we just added, and where we know that if this happens there is a 90% chance that price action will revert back inside the bands. Price action does level off to a certain extent before pulling back lower, and this is highlighted by our descending RSI line.

 

Example E


We also identified that price action is fading to the upside on this chart by introducing the stochastic oscillator, as in example E. We can see that while price action momentum continues upwards from point A to point C, the stochastic is overbought at point B and at point D it fails to reflect the high of the price action at point C, and this shows divergence, and where divergence tells us the market is slowing.

Possibly traders began to sell the pair at point A, being seen as overbought and that the subsequent price action began to lose momentum as volume begins to dry up from the bulls.

This is another good example of confluence where at least two technical indicators are working together stack the odds in our favour. It also helps us to identify areas where other traders began to close down or exit their previous buying trades in fear of a reversal in price action. And so it is wise to consider where other traders may be bailing out of their trades and that therefore this presents options to close trades and look for reversal setups.
Topping out here and for two technical reasons: Firstly our RSI almost touches the 70-line, and also our candlesticks have pierced the Bollinger bands, which we just added, and where we know that if this happens, there is a 90% chance that price action will revert back inside the bands. Price action does level off to a certain extent before pulling back lower, and this is highlighted by our descending RSI line.

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Dec 6 – Cryptocurrencies will replace FIAT by 2030

We can see that the crypto market did not have many currencies move significantly in the past 24 hours. However, most of the market ended up in the green. If we look at the past 24 hours, Bitcoin’s price went up 0.52% and is now trading at the price of $7,402. Meanwhile, Ethereum managed to gain 1.48%, while XRP gained 2.54%.

We can see that the crypto market did not have many currencies move significantly in the past 24 hours. However, most of the market ended up in the green. If we look at the past 24 hours, Bitcoin’s price went up 0.52% and is now trading at the price of $7,402. Meanwhile, Ethereum managed to gain 1.48%, while XRP gained 2.54%.

We can see that the crypto market did not have many currencies move significantly in the past 24 hours. However, most of the market ended up in the green. If we look at the past 24 hours, Bitcoin’s price went up 0.52% and is now trading at the price of $7,402. Meanwhile, Ethereum managed to gain 1.48%, while XRP gained 2.54%.

The biggest gainer amongst the top100 cryptocurrencies by market cap for today is HedgeTrade, which managed to gain 48.72% on the day. The biggest loser of the day was iExec RLC, which lost 5.69% of its value.

Bitcoin’s dominance decreased a tiny amount as the market managed to gain a bit more in value than what Bitcoin gained. Its dominance is currently 66.44%, which represents a decrease of 0.3% from yesterday’s value.

The cryptocurrency market managed to increase in total market capitalization yet again. As the individual cryptocurrency values increased, so did the overall market cap. The market cap is sitting at $201.08 billion at the moment of writing. This value represents an increase of $2.16 billion against yesterday’s value.

What happened in the past 24 hours

Deutsche Bank researched how cryptocurrencies will do in 2030. They concluded that the demand for alternative currencies will rise and that digital currencies will eventually replace cash. This research was done for the “Imagine 2030” report.

Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid pointed out that crypto has solutions for many challenges the existing fiat system has encountered in recent years. On top of that, he said that crypto  itself poses one of the problems fiat has at the moment. He then said that people’s heightened demand for dematerialized means of payment and anonymity could possible bring more people to cryptocurrencies.

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Technical analysis

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin spent the whole day trying to pass its key resistance line of $7,415. almost every 4 hour candle managed to break the price but ultimately ended up below the line. If bulls don’t step up their game, Bitcoin’s price will remain under the key resistance level for the time being. If it happens, we could see a spike in volume followed by a sudden upward-faced spike.


Bitcoin’s volume is slightly lower than yesterday, while its RSI is slowly going towards overbought. This could indicate that bulls have a limited time when they can make a strong push to the upside before being crushed by the bears coming to the market.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $7,415                                           1: $7,240

2: $8,000                                           2: $7,120

3: $8,425                                           3: $6,620

Ethereum

Ethereum is on the other side of the coin when compared to Bitcoin. While Bitcoin is trying to push above its resistance, Ethereum is trying to save its price from falling below its support. Ethereum moved back to the $147 line, and it is still unsure whether the price will stay above it or whether it will drop further down. However, Ethereum has many small support points that ended up being well-respected by the market.


 

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $156.8                                             1: $144.1

2: $161.1                                            2: $133.5

3: $163.4                                            3: $127

Ripple

XRP spent the past few days rallying its bulls, which resulted in a major attempt to the upside yesterday and another one today. While today’s move was not so explosive, it was much healthier. The 0.02267 resistance was strong again, and XRP failed to reach above it, but it did make some daily gains nevertheless. The green 38.2% Fib retracement line ended up being well-respected by the market, and the price managed to consolidate near it. However, it is unknown whether this line will play any role in the short future as XRP is moving down at the moment of writing.


XRP’s volume is much higher when compared to the previous days. Its RSI slowly gained momentum to the upside until the consolidation phase, where it settled down a bit.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $0.222                                            1: $0.2185

2: $0.2267                                          2: $0.214

3: $0.234                                            3: $0.209