Tag: USD

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Forex Assets

Understanding The USD/PLN Exotic Currency Pair

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

USD/PLN is the abbreviation for the US dollar against the Polish Zloty. It is an emerging currency pair in the forex market. The volatility in this pair is high, and the trading volume is less compared to major and cross currencies. In this pair, USD is the base currency, and PLN is the quote currency.

Understanding USD/PLN

The value of this pair determines the value of PLN that is equal to one US dollar. It is quoted as 1 USD per X PLN. For example, if the value of this pair is 3.8146, then around 4 PLN is required to buy one USD.

Spread

In forex, one of the most used terms is the spread. Spread is the difference between the bid price and the ask price of the market. This value is decided by the broker and varies from the type of account model.

ECN: 18 pips | STP: 21 pips

Fees

There is some fee on every trade you execute. And this, too, varies from type of account model. For instance, there is no fee on the STP account and a few pips on ECN accounts.

Slippage

Slippage occurs only on market orders. By definition, it is the difference between the trader’s required price for execution and the actual price the order was executed. This value depends on the broker’s execution speed and the market’s volatility.

Trading Range in USD/PLN

Assessing the profit that you can make and the loss that you can incur is a vital risk management tool. And below is a table that represents the minimum, average, and maximum volatility in different timeframes, which will help determine profit/loss values.

Procedure to assess Pip Ranges

  1. Add the ATR indicator to your chart
  2. Set the period to 1
  3. Add a 200-period SMA to this indicator
  4. Shrink the chart so you can determine a large period
  5. Select your desired timeframe
  6. Measure the floor level and set this value as the min
  7. Measure the level of the 200-period SMA and set this as the average
  8. Measure the peak levels and set this as Max.

USD/PLN Cost as a Percent of the Trading Range

An excellent application to the above table is the cost as a Percent of the Trading Range. The below tables illustrate how the cost varies based on the volatility of the market. And these values will help us an idea on the best times of the day to enter into this currency pair.

ECN Model Account

Spread = 18 | Slippage = 3 |Trading fee = 3

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 3 + 18 + 3 = 24

STP Model Account

Spread = 21 | Slippage = 3 | Trading fee = 0

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 3 + 21 + 0 = 24

The Ideal way to trade the USD/PLN

Before getting right into it, let us comprehend what the tables actually mean. The higher the value of the percentage, the higher is the cost of the trade and vice versa. From the table, we can clearly ascertain that the percentages are high in the first (min) column, indicating that the costs are high when the market volatility is low.

Now, talking the ideal time to trade this currency pair, you may trade this pair during those times when the volatility is above the average values. In doing so, you will be assured with sufficient volatility and low costs as well.

Furthermore, if you wish to reduce your costs much more, you may place orders using the limit/stop instead of the market. This will completely nullify the slippage on the trade and will, in turn, bring down the total costs significantly. As an example, the above table, when the slippage is made, is nil is illustrated below.

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Forex Assets

Trading The USD/CZK Exotic Forex Currency Pair

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

USDCZK is the short-form for the US Dollar against the Czech Koruna. Since CZK is involved in this pair, it is classified as an exotic currency pair. Here, the US Dollar is called the base currency and the CZK the quote currency.

Understanding USD/CZK

The value of USDCZK determines the value of CZK equivalent to one USD. It is quoted as 1 USD per X CZK. So, if the market value of this pair is 22.4773, then many Koruna is required to buy one US Dollar.

Spread

Spread is the difference between the bid and the ask prices set by the broker. The amount of spread varies based on the type of execution model.

ECN: 16 pips | STP: 18 pips

Fees

The fee is a commission that has to be paid to the broker for every trade the clients take. This value depends on the type of execution model used by the broker. As a matter of fact, there is no fee on STP accounts.

Slippage

The difference between the trader’s required price and the broker’s executed price is referred to as the slippage. The slippage size depends on the broker’s execution speed and the volatility of the market.

Trading Range in USD/CZK

The minimum, average, and maximum volatility of the market are necessary to assess the profit/loss that can be made on a trade. And is a representation of the same for USDCZK.

Procedure to assess Pip Ranges

  1. Add the ATR indicator to your chart
  2. Set the period to 1
  3. Add a 200-period SMA to this indicator
  4. Shrink the chart so you can determine an extensive period
  5. Select your desired timeframe
  6. Measure the floor level and set this value as the min
  7. Measure the level of the 200-period SMA and set this as the average
  8. Measure the peak levels and set this as Max.

USD/CZK Cost as a Percent of the Trading Range

The total cost depends on the volatility of the market. Below is a table that shows the variation in the total costs for different volatilities in terms of percentages.

NOTE: These percentages are obtained by finding the ratio between the total cost and the volatility of the market in different timeframes.

ECN Model Account

Spread = 16 | Slippage = 3 |Trading fee = 3

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 3 + 16 + 3 = 22

STP Model Account

Spread = 18 | Slippage = 3 | Trading fee = 0

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 3 + 18 + 0 = 21

The Ideal way to trade the USD/CZK

The volatility in this currency pair is pretty high compared to major and minor currency pairs. And the costs are low by default for the exotic currency pairs. However, it is not ideal for this pair at any time.

The main focus of exotic currencies is to trade when the volatility is not too high. Hence, trading when the volatility is around average and maximum values in the volatility table will ensure decent volatility with lower costs as well.

Another simple technique to reduce costs is by placing limit/stop orders instead of executing by the market. In doing so, the slippage will be taken away from the total costs, which will, in turn, reduce the total cost of the trade.

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Forex Assets

Analyzing The USD/NOK Exotic Forex Currency Pair

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

USD/NOK is the abbreviation for the US Dollar against the Norwegian Krone. This pair comes under the classification of exotic currency pairs. In this pair, USD is the base, and NOK is the quote currency.

Understanding USD/NOK

The value of USDNOK determines the value of NOK that is equivalent to one US Dollar. It is quoted as 1 USD per X NOK. So, if the market value of this pair is 9.2913, then these many units of Norwegian Krone are required to buy one US Dollar.

Spread

Spread is the difference between the bid price and the ask price in the market. This difference is the revenue for the brokers. Spread typically varies on how the broker executes the trades. The approximate spread on ECN and STP accounts is given below.

ECN: 13 pips | STP: 15 pips

Fees

The commission that a broker charges their clients is referred to as the fee. This is not constant and varies from broker to broker. The fee on ECN accounts is around 5-10 pips, and on STP accounts, it is nil.

Slippage

Slippage is the difference between the trader’s demanded price and the actual executed price. Market volatility and the broker’s execution speed are the reasons for slippage to occur.

Trading Range in USD/NOK

A trading range is the tabular representation of the minimum, average, and maximum pip movement in a currency pair. Below are the values of USDNOK that help us assess the profit/loss one can incur in a trade.

Procedure to assess Pip Ranges

  1. Add the ATR indicator to your chart
  2. Set the period to 1
  3. Add a 200-period SMA to this indicator
  4. Shrink the chart so you can determine a large time period
  5. Select your desired timeframe
  6. Measure the floor level and set this value as the min
  7. Measure the level of the 200-period SMA and set this as the average
  8. Measure the peak levels and set this as Max.

USD/NOK Cost as a Percent of the Trading Range

Here we take the ratio of the total cost on the trade and the volatility values and represent them in percentages. These percentages are then used to determine the cost variation in trade in different timeframes.

ECN Model Account

Spread = 13 | Slippage = 3 |Trading fee = 3

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 3 + 13 + 3 = 19

STP Model Account

Spread = 15 | Slippage = 3 | Trading fee = 0

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 3 + 15 + 0 = 18

The Ideal way to trade the USD/NOK

In this section, we interpret what the above percentages actually mean and how to make use of it.

The magnitude of the percentages represents how high or low are the costs of trade. So the higher the values, the higher is the cost and vice versa. From the table, it can be ascertained that the costs are pretty on the higher in the min column. This means that the costs are high when the market’s volatility is low. But it is not ideal to trade during these times due to high costs.

To have an equilibrium on costs as well as volatility, it is perfect for entering during those times when the volatility of the current market is around the average values.

Now, if you still wish to reduce your costs, you may trade using limit orders instead of market orders. This will completely nullify the slippage on the trade and hence bring down the total cost as well.

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Forex Videos

How To Trade The Australian Dollar – Is It Time To Sell?

https://youtu.be/jLnzORuZbHA

https://youtu.be/jLnzORuZbHA

How to trade the Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar is one of the six major currencies traded against the USD and is also popular with cross pairs, such as against the British pound, Euro and Yen.
So far this year, the Australian Dollar has been one of the worst-performing assets among major currencies. A combination of domestic weakness and other external factors such as, more recently, the Coronavirus in China has heavily impacted on this currency.

While Australia’s gross domestic product growth has been recovering since and a low point in 2018, the only expanded very moderately in 2019, the international monetary fund has lowered its forecast in 2020 from 2.8% to 2.3. This may be further impacted the longer the coronavirus goes on because Australia’s gross domestic product is heavily influenced by its commodities exports to China: its largest trading partner with 29.2% of total exports in 2018.

If the virus is contained quickly, Australia can fall back on its low unemployment rate, which has been steady around 5% and it’s housing market which has been turning around since a drop in 2018, and where the more recent upturn is supported by rising house prices.
The Royal Bank of Australia has been doubled in its stance and hinted at depot rate cuts growth remain subdued. It is possible that the Central Bank could roll out extraordinary policies including negative interest rates and large-scale quantitative easing in order to stimulate the economy.

Therefore, the overall sentiment against the Australian Dollar should be considered dovish.
Let’s look at a couple of charts to try and determine the short to the medium-term direction for this currency.

Example A


Example A is the daily chart for the AUSUSD pair. After a rally to the key resistance line of 0.70 in December, the pair has been on the back foot and has declined to a key area of support at 0.6880 at the time of writing. We predict that because there does not seem to be any improvements with the Coronavirus situation and where 50 million people are in lockdown in China. And with no vaccine in sight, we see short to medium term problems for the Australian Dollar continuing. Especially where this major pair is concerned, we expect major stop losses to be breached at its current level and a continuation to the downside due to weakness in the Australian Dollar and strength in the US dollar.

 

Example B


Example B is a daily chart of a popular cross pair: the Euro against the Australian Dollar.
This pair has been fluctuating from two areas of support and resistance in this time frame at 1.5955 and its current position at 1.6577 since May 2019. The rather sharp uplift in this pair over the last two days from the 1.6227 level, confirms general weakness in the Australian Dollar. Again this is an area where we would predict stop losses to be triggered should it move above the 1.66 key level. In the short term, we believe that traders will recognize this is a major level of resistance and where we might expect a pullback in the short term. And whereby Fibonacci technical analysis may help to determine if the pair will continue moving higher. Remember that the euro area has its own problems in terms of growth slow down, which may curtail this move much higher.

Example C


In example C, we get even further clarification of a general weakness in the Australian Dollar with a daily chart of the Australian Dollar against the Japanese yen. After rejecting the resistance line at position A around the 76.50 level, traders failed to reach it again again at position B, and where we have seen an acceleration to the downside. Traders will now be targeting the support line at around 71.80 level, and if

this is breached, stops will be triggered and price action will drive the pair lower to their next target which is around the 70:50 level. The hypothesis is based again on the weakening Australian Dollar and the fact that the market is buying Yen as a safe haven currency, and therefore the emphasis and sentiment is that this pair is due to declining further.

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Forex Assets

Everything About The USD/MXN Forex Currency Pair

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

USDMXN is the abbreviation for the US Dollar against the Mexican Peso. It is classified as an exotic currency pair that usually has high volatility and low trading volume. Here, the US Dollar (on the left) is the base currency, and the MXN (on the right) is the quote currency.

Understanding USD/MXN

The market price of USDMXN represents the value of MXN that are required to purchase to one US Dollar. It is quoted as 1 USD per X MXN. So, if the market price of this pair is 18.7615, then this amount of MXN is required to buy one USD.

Spread

The difference between the bid and the ask price is referred to as the spread. Its value varies from the type of execution model of the broker.

ECN: 16 pips | STP: 17 pips

Fees

For every position a client takes from the broker, he must pay some fee on each. Note that there is no fee on STP accounts. However, there are few pips of fees on ECN accounts.

Slippage

The difference between the price requested by the client and the price that was given by the broker is referred to as the slippage. Its value depends on the volatility of the market and the broker’s execution.

Trading Range in USD/MXN

Assessing the amount of money you will win and lose beforehand, in a particular timeframe is critical in trading. Below is a volatility table through which one can determine the minimum, average, and maximum profit/loss they can encounter in a specified timeframe.

Procedure to assess Pip Ranges

  1. Add the ATR indicator to your chart
  2. Set the period to 1
  3. Add a 200-period SMA to this indicator
  4. Shrink the chart so you can assess a large time period
  5. Select your desired timeframe
  6. Measure the floor level and set this value as the min
  7. Measure the level of the 200-period SMA and set this as the average
  8. Measure the peak levels and set this as Max.

USD/MXN Cost as a Percent of the Trading Range

By applying the total cost to the above table, we can even determine the cost variation in a trade. The ratio between the two expressed in percentage will help us determine the ideal times of the day to trade the currency pair.

ECN Model Account

Spread = 16 | Slippage = 3 |Trading fee = 3

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 3 + 16 + 3 = 22

STP Model Account

Spread = 17 | Slippage = 3 | Trading fee = 0

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 3 + 17 + 0 = 20

The Ideal way to trade the USD/MXN

Comprehending the above tables is simple. The percentage values are directly proportional to the total cost of the trade. It is seen that the percentages are comparatively high on the min column and vice versa. Now, coming to the ideal time to enter the market, it would be when the volatility of USDMXN is somewhere around the average pip movement. Trading in such moments will ensure low costs as well as lower liquidity.

Furthermore, you reduce costs by placing orders using limit/pending orders instead of market orders. This will significantly bring down the total costs as the slippage will be zero at this point in time. I hope this article will help you trade this pair in a much efficient way. Cheers!

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Forex Assets

Trading The USD/SEK Exotic Forex Currency Pair

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

USDSEK, the US Dollar against the Swedish Krona, is an exotic currency pair in the forex market. USD is called the base currency and SEK the quote currency. Coming under the classification of exotic pairs, the volatility in this pair is pretty high.

Understanding USD/SEK

The value of USDSEK represents the quantity of SEK that is required to purchase one US Dollar. It is quoted as 1 USD per X SEK. So, if the current of this pair is 9.6123, then these many units of Swedish krona are required to buy one US Dollar.

Spread

Spread is the difference between the bid price and the ask price set by your broker. It varies from each broker. It also varies on how they execute the trade as well.

ECN: 12 pips | STP: 14 pips

Fees

There is some fee associated with each trade you take in the market. The fee, too, varies from broker to broker and the type of execution model.

Fee on ECN – 5-10 pips

Fee on STP – 0

Slippage

Slippage is the algebraic difference between the price needed by the client and the price the broker actually gave him. There is this difference due to the market’s volatility and the speed of execution of the trade. Note that slippage is quite high on exotic pairs.

Trading Range in USD/SEK

The below table is the representation of the minimum, average, and maximum pip movement on the USDSEK pair. These values help us assess the gain that can be made or loss that can be incurred in a trade in a given timeframe.

Procedure to assess Pip Ranges

  1. Add the ATR indicator to your chart
  2. Set the period to 1
  3. Add a 200-period SMA to this indicator
  4. Shrink the chart so you can determine a large time period
  5. Select your desired timeframe
  6. Measure the floor level and set this value as the min
  7. Measure the level of the 200-period SMA and set this as the average
  8. Measure the peak levels and set this as Max.

USD/SEK Cost as a Percent of the Trading Range

An application to the above table is the cost variation in a trade. By calculating the ratio between the total cost and the volatility values, we can determine the perfect times of the day to trade in the market. The comprehension of it is discussed in the upcoming topics.

ECN Model Account

Spread = 12 | Slippage = 3 |Trading fee = 3

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 3 + 12 + 3 = 18

STP Model Account

Spread = 14 | Slippage = 3 | Trading fee = 0

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 3 + 14 + 0 = 17

The Ideal way to trade the USD/SEK

Trading exotic currency pairs are different from trading major and minor currency pairs because volatility and volume are different. And when it comes to costs, the costs are higher in exotic pairs compared to major and minor pairs.

The magnitude of the percentage depicts the costs on the trade and is proportional to it. High values in the min column tell that the costs are high when the market volatility is low and vice versa.

To have sufficient volatility with affordable costs, one may trade those times when the volatility is around the average values.

Moreover, limit orders also help in reducing the costs by a significant amount. This is because only market orders have slippage, and limit orders don’t. Hence, cutting off slippage from the total costs will reduce the costs of the trade considerably.

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Forex Assets

Analyzing The USD/HUF Forex Exotic Currency Pair

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

The US Dollar versus the Hungarian Forint, in short, is represented as USDHUF. It is an exotic currency pair in the forex market. It has got high volatility and lower volume compared to major and minor currencies. Here, USD is the base currency, and HUF is the quote currency.

Understanding USD/HUF

The value of this pair represents the number of HUF that are required to buy one US Dollar. It is quoted as 1 USD per X HUF. If the current market price of USDHUF is 307.72, these many Hungarian Forints are needed to purchase one unit of USD.

Spread

Spread is the primary way through which brokers generate revenue from their clients. The pip difference between the bid price and the ask price is their revenue, which is referred to as the spread. Spread is different on ECN accounts and STP accounts.

ECN: 16 pips | STP: 15 pips

Fees

On ECN accounts, one has to pay some pips of fee on each position you take. The fee is usually high on exotic pairs and comparatively less on major and minor pairs. However, on STP accounts, the fee is nil.

Slippage

Slippage in trading is the difference between the client’s intended price and the price the broker actually gave him. Slippage is affected by two factors:

  • Broker’s execution speed
  • The volatility of the market

Trading Range in USD/HUF

The representation of the minimum, average, and maximum volatility of a currency pair is the trading range. It shows the volatility of the market in different timeframes. And these values help in figuring the profit that can be gained or loss that can be incurred on a trade.

Procedure to assess Pip Ranges

  1. Add the ATR indicator to your chart
  2. Set the period to 1
  3. Add a 200-period SMA to this indicator
  4. Shrink the chart so you can assess a large time period
  5. Select your desired timeframe
  6. Measure the floor level and set this value as the min
  7. Measure the level of the 200-period SMA and set this as the average
  8. Measure the peak levels and set this as Max.

USD/HUF Cost as a Percent of the Trading Range

Cost as a per cent of the trading range is the representation of the cost discrepancies for different volatilities and timeframes. With these values, we can determine the moments of the day when the costs are less. And this shall be discussed in detail in the next topic.

ECN Model Account

Spread = 16 | Slippage = 3 |Trading fee = 3

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 3 + 16 + 3 = 22

STP Model Account

Spread = 15 | Slippage = 3 | Trading fee = 0

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 3 + 15 + 0 = 18

The Ideal way to trade the USD/HUF

We know that exotic currency pairs typically have high volatility and low trading volume. Also, the total costs on trade are pretty expensive. Hence, one must be choosy while deciding when to enter the market.

The higher percentage values in the min column represent that the costs are high when the volatility of the market is low. And the opposite is the case for lower percentage values. However, it is not ideal to trade during any of these times.

One may trade these currency pairs during those times of the day when the volatility values are around the average values. This will ensure decent volatility as well as low costs on the trade.

Furthermore, another simple way to reduce costs is by trading using limit orders and not market orders. Because this will take away the slippage on the total cost, and this will, in turn, reduce the total cost significantly. An example of the same is given below.

With slippage

Spread = 16 | Slippage = 3 |Trading fee = 3

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 3 + 16 + 3 = 22

Without slippage

Spread = 16 | Slippage = 0 |Trading fee = 3

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 0 + 16 + 3 = 19

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Forex Assets

USD/DKK – Analyzing the Exotic Forex Pair

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

USD/DKK is the abbreviation for the US Dollar against the Danish Krone. This pair is considered as an exotic currency pair that typically presents high volatility and low trading volume. The US Dollar is the base currency, and the Danish Krone is the quote currency.

Understanding USD/DKK

The value of USD/DKK represents the value of DKK that is equivalent to one US Dollar. It is quoted as 1 USD per X DKK. So, if the current value of this pair is 6.9868, then these many Danish Krones are required to purchase one US Dollar.

Spread

Spread is the difference between the bid and the ask price of a currency pair. It is the primary way through which brokers generate revenue. It varies from broker to broker and also the model of execution.

ECN: 14 pips | STP: 15 pips

Fees

The fee is simply the commission that you pay on each trade you take.

Fee on ECN – 3-6

Fee on STP – 0

Slippage

Slippage is the difference between the price which was intended by the client and the price he got from the broker. This difference changes with the market’s volatility and the broker’s execution speed. Slippage on exotic pairs is typically high.

Trading Range in USD/DKK

As it is pretty evident from the table, the trading range is an illustration of the pip movement in a currency pair in different timeframes. These values help us determine the minimum, average, and maximum profit or loss that can be incurred in a trade during a specified time frame. Another application for this table is discussed in the next topic.

Procedure to assess Pip Ranges

  1. Add the ATR indicator to your chart
  2. Set the period to 1
  3. Add a 200-period SMA to this indicator
  4. Shrink the chart so you can determine an extensive period
  5. Select your desired timeframe
  6. Measure the floor level and set this value as the min
  7. Measure the level of the 200-period SMA and set this as the average
  8. Measure the peak levels and set this as Max.

USD/DKK Cost as a Percent of the Trading Range

Cost as a percent of the trading range is an application to the above volatility table. The below two tables depict the total cost variation in different volatilities and timeframes for ECN and STP accounts.

Note: The percentages are obtained by finding the ratio between the total cost and the pip movement values in the above table.

ECN Model Account

Spread = 14 | Slippage = 3 |Trading fee = 3

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 3 + 14 + 3 = 20

STP Model Account

Spread = 15 | Slippage = 3 | Trading fee = 0

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 3 + 15 + 0 = 18

The Ideal way to trade the USD/DKK

What do the percentage values mean? Comprehending the above tables is simple. The higher the magnitude of the percentage, the higher are the costs for that particular volatility and timeframe. Similarly, lower percentage values mean that the costs are low.

Trading during high volatilities or when the cost is high is not ideal. So, to ensure an equilibrium between the two, it is best to enter the market during those times when the volatility is around the mid values illustrated in the volatility table.

Apart from this, one can reduce their total costs significantly by placing orders using limit/pending orders instead of market orders. This will altogether remove the slippage factor on the total cost and bring down its value by a high number.

As already mentioned, exotic currency pairs are highly volatile and have low trading volume. This results in higher costs on the trade. Hence, if you really want to trade this pair, it is recommended to follow the above-mentioned mentioned techniques to reduce costs by a considerable amount. Cheers!

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Forex Assets

Understanding The USD/THB Exotic Forex Pair

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

USD/THB is the abbreviation for the US Dollar versus Thailand’s Thai Baht. It is an exotic currency pair which usually has high volatility and low trading volume. US Dollar, in this pair, is the base currency, and the Thai Baht is the quote currency.

Understanding USD/THB

The value of USDTHB represents the number of THB that are equivalent to one USD. It is quoted as 1 USD per X THB. So, if the market price of this pair is 30.98, then one has to produce 30.98 THB to buy one USD.

Spread

Spread is the difference between the bid and the ask price of the currency pair set by the brokers. It typically varies from broker to broker and also from the type of order execution. The spreads on ECN and STP accounts are as shown below.

ECN: 10 pips | STP: 11 pips

Fees

There is a fee associated with every trade you take. The fee is also referred to as the commission on the trade. Its value is usually a constant but varies from the type of execution model. The fee on STP accounts is nil, while there are a few pips of fee on ECN accounts.

Slippage

Slippage is the difference between the trader’s required price and the price at which his trade was executed. Since exotic pairs are highly volatile, the slippage is quite high.

Trading Range in USD/THB

Below we shoe a table representation of the minimum, average, and maximum pip movement in a currency pair. These values help us determine the profit or loss that can be made on a trade in a given amount of time. All you have to do is, multiply any one of the below values with the value per pip ($32.26). The result is the potential profit gained or lost on the trade for one bar of the timeframe.

Procedure to assess Pip Ranges

  1. Add the ATR indicator to your chart
  2. Set the period to 1
  3. Add a 200-period SMA to this indicator
  4. Shrink the chart so you can assess a large period
  5. Select your desired timeframe
  6. Measure the floor level and set this value as the min
  7. Measure the level of the 200-period SMA and set this as the average
  8. Measure the peak levels and set this as Max.

USD/THB Cost as a Percent of the Trading Range

The cost as a trading range represents the cost variation in trade in different volatilities of the market. It is presented in percentages of the total range. Thus, it helps determine the best moments to enter the market to ensure lower costs.

ECN Model Account

Spread = 10 | Slippage = 3 |Trading fee = 3

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 10 + 3 + 3 = 16

STP Model Account

Spread = 11 | Slippage = 3 | Trading fee = 0

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 11 + 3 + 0 = 14

The Ideal way to trade the USD/THB

Trading exotic pairs are different from trading the major and minor pairs. However, there are times when one can trade this pair by making attempts to reduce the costs.

The magnitude of the percentages represents the costs of the trade. The higher the percentages, the higher are the costs on the trade. It can be seen from tables that the costs are high on the min column and comparatively lower in the max column. This clearly means the costs are high during high volatilities and vice versa.

However, when it comes to determining the right time to trade, one must trade during those moments when the volatility is around the higher values because this will ensure pretty great volatility as well as low costs.

Furthermore, another simple way to reduce costs is by trading using limit/stop orders instead of market orders. Limit orders will eliminate the slippage and significantly reduce the total cost of the trade.

Finally, we can see that we must be pretty sure of the direction and extension of the trend to trade the USDTHB, and avoid trading it intraday. Using the daily chart and limit orders, we still would need almost 4 Hours of a positive movement (with the trade) to pay the costs. Therefore we practical setups would ask for at least 2-3 days of market action for propper reward-to-risk factors.

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Analyzing The USD/SGD Forex Currency Pair

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

US dollar versus the Singapore dollar, in short, is referred to as USDSGD. USD stands for the US dollar and is the base currency, and SGD stands for the Singapore dollar and is the quote currency. This currency pair comes under the sack of exotic currency pairs. Unlike the major and minor currencies, exotic currencies tend to have high volatility and low volumes.

Understanding USD/SGD

Comprehending the value of USDSGD is simple. The number of SGD equivalent to one USD is the value of the currency pair USDSGD. It is quoted as 1 USD per X SGD. So, if the value of this pair is 1.3641, then 1.3241 units of SGD are to be produced to purchase one USD.

Spread

Spread is a term given to the difference between the bid price and ask price of a currency pair. This value varies from broker to broker and on the type of execution model.

ECN: 7 | STP: 9

Fees

The fee is similar to the commission that is paid on each trade. This value, too, varies based on how the brokers execute a trade. Note that there is no fee on STP accounts. However, there is a fee on ECN accounts. And for exotic pairs, the fee is pretty high.

Slippage

Slippage is the difference between the price that a trader expected to receive and the price he actually got. There is always this difference due to the volatility of the market and the broker’s execution speed.

Trading Range in USD/SGD

Assessing the profit or loss that a trader is liable for is considered to be a vital factor in trading. This can easily be determined using the table below, which represents the pip movements in the currency pair in a given timeframe.

Procedure to assess Pip Ranges

  1. Add the ATR indicator to your chart
  2. Set the period to 1
  3. Add a 200-period SMA to this indicator
  4. Shrink the chart so you can assess a large time period
  5. Select your desired timeframe
  6. Measure the floor level and set this value as the min
  7. Measure the level of the 200-period SMA and set this as the average
  8. Measure the peak levels and set this as Max.

USD/SGD Cost as a Percent of the Trading Range

The total cost on a trade does not remain static even though you’re trading with the same broker. It varies depending on the volatility of the currency pair. To find the variation of these costs, we consider the values in the pip movement table and find the ratio with the total cost, and represent in percentage.

ECN Model Account

Spread = 7 | Slippage = 3 |Trading fee = 3

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 7 + 3 + 3 = 13

STP Model Account

Spread = 9 | Slippage = 3 | Trading fee = 0

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 9 + 3 + 0 = 12

The Ideal way to trade the USD/SGD

As mentioned, exotic pairs are pretty expensive to trade. However, it can still be traded in some moments when the costs are low.

It can be ascertained from the above table that the percentages are maximum in the min column and minimum on the max column. This means that the costs are high when the market’s volatility is low and vice versa.

Now, to ensure moderate volatility with affordable costs, it is ideal to trade when the volatility of the market is somewhere around the average values of the volatility table.

Slippage is a variable in the total cost that can be erased by trading using limit orders instead of market orders. In doing so, the costs will be reduced by a significant value. For example, if the total cost on the trade was 13 (including slippage=3), then the costs would be reduced to 10 as slippage is not considered.

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Understanding The USD/HKD Exotic Forex Pair

introduction

introduction

introduction

USDHKD is the abbreviation for the US dollar and the Hong Kong dollar. The USDHKD is an exotic currency pair. Exotics are pairs that are thinly traded in the foreign exchange markets and are not widely used in the global markets. One can expect high volatility and low volumes on this pair. Here, USD is referred to as base currency and HKD as the quote currency.

Understanding USD/HKD

The value of USDHKD represents the value of the Hong Kong dollar that is equivalent to one US dollar. It is quoted as 1USD per X HKD. For example, if the market price of USDHKD is 7.7684, then these many units of HKD are required to purchase one USD.

Spread

Spread is the difference between the bid price and the ask price of a currency pair. This value is set by the brokers, and it varies from different brokers. The type of execution model brings a variation in the spreads.

ECN: 5 | STP: 9

Fees

When you execute any trade through your brokers, there is a fee that has to be paid. The fee differs from brokers to brokers, as well as their execution type. Typically, there is no fee on STP accounts.

Slippage

Slippage is the difference between the trader’s intended price to execute a trade and the price he actually received from the broker. There is always this difference due to the volatility of the market and the broker’s execution speed. As a matter of fact, slippage is pretty high on exotic pairs.

Trading Range in USD/HKD

The trading range is the depiction of the minimum, average, and maximum pip movement of a currency pair. And these values help in assessing one’s risk on a trade. By finding the product of the volatility value with the pip value, you can determine the profit or loss that can be incurred in a specified timeframe.

Procedure to assess Pip Ranges

  1. Add the ATR indicator to your chart
  2. Set the period to 1
  3. Add a 200-period SMA to this indicator
  4. Shrink the chart so you can determine a large time period
  5. Select your desired timeframe
  6. Measure the floor level and set this value as the min
  7. Measure the level of the 200-period SMA and set this as the average
  8. Measure the peak levels and set this as Max.

USD/HKD Cost as a Percent of the Trading Range

This calculation is an extremely helpful tool to analyze the cost variations in a trade. This table is basically a representation of the total cost variations in different timeframes and volatilities of the market. The costs are represented as a percentage of the range, and the magnitude of it depicts the cost of the trade.

ECN Model Account

Spread = 5 | Slippage = 5 |Trading fee = 1

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 5 + 5 + 1 = 11

STP Model Account

Spread = 9 | Slippage = 5 | Trading fee = 0

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 9 + 5 + 0 = 14

The Ideal way to trade the USD/HKD

Exotic pairs are expensive to trade when compared to major and minor currency pairs. However, it does not mean that one must completely avoid it. There are a few ways by which one can minimize the costs on the trade and take positions on it.

The higher the magnitude of the percentage, the higher is the cost of the trade. It is evident that the values are significant on the min column and comparatively small on the max column. Hence, costs are high for low volatilities markets and vice versa.

When it comes to picking the right time to enter the market, it is ideal to take positions when the volatility of the market is around the average values. From this, one can be guaranteed with affordable costs and decent volatility.

Slippage has a significant weight on the total cost of a trade. However, slippage can be wiped out. Trading using limit orders instead of market orders will take away the slippage on the trade. The next table displays the costs using limit orders.

Spread = 5 | Slippage = 0 |Trading fee = 1

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 5 + 0 + 1 = 6

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Understanding The Fundamentals Of USD/JPY Forex Pair

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

USDJPY is the abbreviation for the currency pair US dollar against the Japanese yen. This currency pair is very liquid and volatile. It is classified as a major currency pair. Here, USD is the base currency, and JPY is the quote currency. The currency pair shows how many JPY are required to purchase one US dollar.

Understanding USD/JPY

The exchange rate of USDJPY represents the units of JPY equivalent to one US dollar. For example, if the value of USDJPY is 109.550, then these many Japanese yen are required to buy one US dollar.

USD/JPY Specification

Spread

Spread is simply the difference between the bid price and the ask price. It depends on the account type. The average spread for ECN and STP account is shown below.

Spread on ECN: 0.5

Spread on STP: 1.2

Fees

The fee is basically the commission charged by the broker on each trade. Typically, the fee on STP accounts is nil, and there is some fee on the ECN account. There is no fixed fee on the ECN account and varies from broker to broker.

Slippage

Slippage is the difference between the price needed by the trader and the real price the trader was executed. Slippage happens when orders are executed as market orders. The slippage is usually within the range of 0.5 to 5 pips.

Trading Range in USD/JPY

The trading range is the representation of the minimum, average, and maximum volatility on a particular timeframe. It shows the range of pips the currency pair moved on a given timeframe. These values prove to be helpful in assessing a trader’s risk and controlling their cost on a trade.

USD/JPY PIP RANGES

Procedure to assess Pip Ranges

  1. Add the ATR indicator to your chart
  2. Set the period to 1
  3. Add a 200-period SMA to this indicator
  4. Shrink the chart so you can assess a large time period
  5. Select your desired timeframe
  6. Measure the floor level and set this value as the min
  7. Measure the level of the 200-period SMA and set this as the average
  8. Measure the peak levels and set this as Max.

USD/JPY Cost as a Percent of the Trading Range

Just knowing how many pips the currency pair moved is pointless. To bring it some value, it is clubbed with the total cost to understand how the cost varies based on the volatility of the market. It shows cost and volatility are dependent on each other.

The relation between Cost and Volatility

Cost and volatility are inversely proportional to each other. When the volatility of the market is low, the costs are high; and when the volatility is high, the cost is low. More on this is discussed in the subsequent section.

ECN Model Account

Spread = 0.5 | Slippage = 2 | Trading fee = 1

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 2 + 0.5 + 1 = 3.5

STP Model Account

Spread = 1.2 | Slippage = 2 | Trading fee = 0

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 2 + 1.2 + 0 = 3.2

The Ideal way to trade the USD/JPY

The above two tables are formed by finding the ratio between the total cost and the volatility. It is then expressed in terms of a percentage. Comprehending the values is simple. It is based on the relation between cost and volatility. If the percentage value is high, then the cost is high for that particular volatility and timeframe. It can be inferred that the min column has the highest values compared to the average and max column. This simply means that the costs are high when the volatility of the market is low. Hence, it is recommended to open/close positions when the volatility is at or above the average mark.

Furthermore, apart from volatility, the cost is heavily affected by the slippage. As mentioned, this happens due to market order executions. Hence, to reduce your cost by up to 50% on each trade, it is recommended to trade using limit orders and not market orders.

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Forex Assets

USD/CHF Currency Pair – Everything You Should Know!

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

USD/CHF is the abbreviation for the US dollar and the Swiss franc. This pair is a major currency pair. USD is the base currency, while CHF is the quote currency. The pair as a whole tells how many units of the quote currency is needed to purchase one unit of the base currency. Trading USDCHF is as good as saying, trading the ‘Swissie.’

Understanding USD/CHF

The exchange value of USDCHF represents the number of Swiss francs required to buy one US dollar. For example, if the value of USDCHF is 0.9820, to purchase one USD, the trader must pay 0.9820 Swiss francs.

USD/CHF Specification

Spread

Spread in trading is the difference between the bid price and the ask price offered by the broker. It is measured in terms of pips and varies on the type of account and type of broker.

Spread on ECN: 0.8

Spread on STP: 1.6

Fees

There is a small fee or commission charged by the broker for every trade a trader takes. This depends on both types of accounts and broker. For our analysis, we have kept the fee fixed at one pip.

Slippage

Due to volatility in the market, a trader does not usually get the price that he demanded. The actual price differs from the demanded price. This difference is referred to as slippage. For example, if a trader executes a trade at 0.9890, the real price received would be 0.9892. This difference of two pips is known as slippage.

Trading Range in USD/CHF

The trading range is a tabular representation of the minimum, average, and maximum pip movement on a particular timeframe. Having knowledge about this is necessary because it helps in managing risk as well as determining the right times of the day to enter and exit a trade with minimal costs.

Below is a table that depicts the minimum, average, and maximum volatility (pip movement) on different timeframes.

USD/CHF PIP RANGES

Procedure to assess Pip Ranges

  1. Add the ATR indicator to your chart
  2. Set the period to 1
  3. Add a 200-period SMA to this indicator
  4. Shrink the chart so you can assess a large time period
  5. Select your desired timeframe
  6. Measure the floor level and set this value as the min
  7. Measure the level of the 200-period SMA and set this as the average
  8. Measure the peak levels and set this as Max.

USD/CHF Cost as a Percent of the Trading Range

The number of pips the currency pair move in each timeframe is shown in the above table. Now, we apply these values to find the cost percentage when the volatility is minimum, average, and max. This cost percentage will then help us filter out the most optimal time of the day to take trades.

The comprehension of the cost percentage is simple. If the percentage is high, then the cost is high for that particular timeframe and range. If the percentage is low, then the cost is relatively low for that timeframe and range.

Note that, the total cost on a single trade is calculated by adding up the spread, slippage, and trading fee.

ECN Model Account

Spread = 0.8 | Slippage = 2 | Trading fee = 1

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 2 + 0.8 + 1 = 3.8

STP Model Account

Spread = 1.6 | Slippage = 2 | Trading fee = 0

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 2 + 1.6 + 0 = 3.6

The Ideal way to trade the USD/CAD

Entering and exiting trades during any time of the day might not be the smartest move. There are particular times of the day a trader must manage their trade to reduce both risk and cost on the trade. This can be made possible by comprehending the above two tables.

The percentages are highest in the min column. Meaning, the cost is pretty high when the volatility of the market is low. For example, on the 1H timeframe, when the volatility is 2.5 pips, the cost percentage is 152%. This means that one must bear high costs if they open or close trades when the volatility is around 2.5 pips. So, ideally, it is recommended to trade when the market volatility is above the average mark.

Apart from that, it is much better if one trades using the limit orders rather than market orders, as it nullifies the slippage on the trade. In doing so, the costs of each trade will reduce by about 50%.

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Knowing The Fundamentals Of NZD/USD Currency Pair

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

New Zealand dollar versus the US dollar, in short, is referred to as NZD/USD or NZDUSD. This currency pair is classified as a major currency pair. In NZDUSD, NZD is the base currency, and USD is the quote currency. Trading the NZDUSD is as good as saying, trading the New Zealand dollar, as NZD is the base currency.

Understanding NZD/USD

The value (currency market price) of NZDUSD represents units of USD equivalent to 1 NZD. In layman terms, it is the number of US dollars required to purchase one New Zealand dollar. For example, if the value of NZDUSD is 0.6867, then 0.6867 USD is required to buy one NZD.

NZD/USD Specification

Spread 

The algebraic difference between the bid price and the ask price is called the spread. It depends on the type of execution model provided by the broker.

Spread on ECN: 1

Spread on STP: 1.9

Fees

Similar to spreads, fees also depend on the type of execution model. Usually, there is no fee on the STP model, but there is a small fee on the ECN model. In our analysis, we shall fix the fee to 1 pip.

Slippage

Slippage is the difference between the price asked by the trader for execution and the actual price the trader was executed. Slippage occurs on market orders. It is dependent on the volatility of the market as well as the broker’s execution speed. Slippage has a decent weight on the cost of each trade. More about it shall be discussed in the coming sections.

Trading Range in NZD/USD

The volatility of a currency pair plays a vital role in trading. It is a variable that differs from timeframe to timeframe. Understanding the range (min, avg, max) is essential for a trader, as it is helpful for reducing the cost of each trade.

The volatility gives the measure of how many pips the pair has moved on a particular timeframe. This, in turn, gives the approximate profit or loss on each timeframe. For example, if the volatility of NZDUSD on the 1H timeframe is 10 pips, then one can expect to gain or lose $100 (10 pips x $10 [pip value]) within an hour or two.

Below is a table that depicts the minimum, average, and maximum volatility (pip movement) on different timeframes.

AUD/USD PIP RANGES 

Procedure to assess Pip Ranges

  1. Add the ATR indicator to your chart
  2. Set the period to 1
  3. Add a 200-period SMA to this indicator
  4. Shrink the chart so you can assess a large time period
  5. Select your desired timeframe
  6. Measure the floor level and set this value as the min
  7. Measure the level of the 200-period SMA and set this as the average
  8. Measure the peak levels and set this as Max.

NZD/USD Cost as a Percent of the Trading Range

With the volatility values obtained in the above table, the total cost of each trade is calculated on each timeframe. These values are represented in terms of a percentage. And these percentages will determine during what values of volatility it is ideal to trade with low costs.

The total cost is calculated by adding up the spread, slippage, and trading fee. As a default, we shall keep the slippage at 2 and the trading fee for the ECN model at 1.

ECN Model Account

Spread = 1 | Slippage = 2 | Trading fee = 1

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 2 + 1 + 1 = 4

STP Model Account

Spread = 1.9 | Slippage = 2 | Trading fee = 0

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 2 + 1.9 + 0 = 3.9

The Ideal Timeframe to Trade NZD/USD

The very first observation that can be made from the above two tables is that the total costs in both the model types are more or less the same. So trading on any one of the two accounts is a fine choice.

From the minimum, average, and maximum column, it can be ascertained that percentages (costs) are the highest on the minimum column of all the timeframes. In simpler terms, when the volatility of the currency pair is very low, the costs are usually on the higher side. Conversely, when the volatility is high, the costs are pretty low. Hence, it is ideal to trade during those times of the day when the volatility of the pair is at or above average. For example, a day trader can trade the 1H timeframe when the volatility of the currency pair is above 8.8 pips. This will hence assure that the costs are pretty low.

Another way to reduce the costs is by nullifying the slippage. This can be done by placing a limit order instead of executing them by a market order. This shall reduce the total costs by a significant percentage. An example of the same is given below.

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading fee = 0 + 1 + 1 = 2

From the above table with nil slippage, it is evident that the costs have reduced by about 50%. Hence, to sum it up, to optimize the cost, it is ideal to trade when the volatility is above average and also enter & exit trades using limit orders rather than market orders.

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What Should You Know About AUD/USD Forex Pair

Firstly, the abbreviation of the AUDUSD currency pair is the Australian dollar and the US dollar. AUDUSD is a major currency pair. It is considered a major pair because it is AUD is paired with the US dollar, and also, this is one of the pairs where a huge volume of trading takes place. In AUDUSD, AUD is the base currency, and USD is the quote currency.

Firstly, the abbreviation of the AUDUSD currency pair is the Australian dollar and the US dollar. AUDUSD is a major currency pair. It is considered a major pair because it is AUD is paired with the US dollar, and also, this is one of the pairs where a huge volume of trading takes place. In AUDUSD, AUD is the base currency, and USD is the quote currency.

Firstly, the abbreviation of the AUDUSD currency pair is the Australian dollar and the US dollar. AUDUSD is a major currency pair. It is considered a major pair because it is AUD is paired with the US dollar, and also, this is one of the pairs where a huge volume of trading takes place. In AUDUSD, AUD is the base currency, and USD is the quote currency.

Understanding AUD/USD

The exchange value of AUDUSD represents the units of USD equivalent to one unit of AUD. In technical terms, it is the value of AUD against USD. For example, if the current market price of AUDUSD is 0.6960, then it means that it takes 0.6960 US dollars to buy 1 Australian dollar. Trading the AUDUSD currency pair is basically trading the Aussie (Australian dollar).

AUD/USD Specification

Spread

Spread is the difference between the bid price and the ask price. The spread usually varies based on account type. The spread on an ECN account and an STP account is as follows:

ECN: 0.7 | STP: 1.4

Fee

There is charged by brokers for every trade a trader takes. However, this depends on the type of forex account. Typically there is a fee in ECN accounts and zero-fee in STP accounts. Also, there is no exact value of fee on a single trade, as it differs from broker to broker.

Slippage

Slippage is the difference between the trader’s requested price and the real executed price. Slippage happens when the volatility of the market is quite high. It happens for market orders. Slippage can be in favor of the trader or against him. If entering and closing of the trade is done by market execution, then slippage happens twice. The slippage is usually between 0.5 and 3 pips. However, it depends on the broker’s execution speed as well.

Trading Range in AUD/USD

There are several timeframes to trade this currency pair. A day trader may pick the 1H, 4H, or the 1D timeframe, while a positional trader may opt for the weekly or the monthly. Apart from analyzing these timeframes, it is also necessary to know the volatility range in each of the timeframes. Knowing the pip movement range in each timeframe, one can assess their risk involved in each trade.

Below is the table, which represents the minimum, average, and maximum pip movement in each timeframe.

Note: The below values are an approximation from the Average True Range (ATR) indicator.

AUD/USD PIP RANGES 

Procedure to assess Pip Ranges

  1. Add the ATR indicator to your chart
  2. Set the period to 1
  3. Add a 200-period SMA to this indicator
  4. Shrink the chart so you can assess a large time period
  5. Select your desired timeframe
  6. Measure the floor level and set this value as the min
  7. Measure the level of the 200-period SMA and set this as the average
  8. Measure the peak levels and set this as Max.
GBP/USD Cost as a Percent of the Trading Range

This is where the above values are put into play. By considering the volatility range in each timeframe, the cost (fee) for a single trade is measured in terms of a percentage for every mentioned timeframe. The basic idea to this is that the higher the percentage value, the higher is the cost of the trade.

The cost is calculated by considering three variables, namely, slippage, spread, and trading fee. And the sum of these values gives the total cost of each trade.

As mentioned earlier, the cost varies from the type of trading account. So, there will be variation in cost percentages as well.

ECN Model Account

Spread = 0.7 | Slippage = 2 | Trading fee = 1

Total fee = Spread + Slippage + Trading fee = 0.7 + 2 + 1

Total cost = 3.7 (pips)

STP Model Account

Spread = 1.4 | Slippage = 2 | Trading fee = 0

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 2 + 1.4 + 0

Total cost = 3.4

The Ideal Timeframe to Trade GBP/USD

The first observation that can be made from the above percentage values is that the minimum column has the highest percentages compared to other columns. This means that the cost is pretty high when the volatility of the market is too low irrespective of the timeframe. Contrarily, the costs are significantly less when the volatility of the market is high (max column). However, it is quite risky to trade when the market volatility is high though the fee is less. So, it is ideal during those times of the day when the market volatility is above average.

Note that volatility is not only one which decides on which is the best timeframe and time of the day to trade. The slippage value equally plays an important role, as well. For instance, if the slippage is made nil and the percentages are calculated, it is seen that the ranges drop down considerably. Hence, it is recommended to enter and exit trades using limit orders and not market orders.

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Forex Course

18. What Should You Know About Trading The New York Session

Introduction
After the Asian and the London session, the big fishes enter into the market, i.e., the New York market. When London’s session is halfway through its trading, the New

Introduction
After the Asian and the London session, the big fishes enter into the market, i.e., the New York market. When London’s session is halfway through its trading, the New

Introduction

After the Asian and the London session, the big fishes enter into the market, i.e., the New York market. When London’s session is halfway through its trading, the New York markets make an entry into the market. Precisely, the New York session begins at 8:00 AM EST. This session is also referred to as the North American session. The liquidity during this session is pretty high.

As we have discussed the average pip movement in the Tokyo session and the London session, let us compare the pip movement by considering all the three sessions. The London session tops the table, which is then followed by the New York session and, finally, the Tokyo session.

Average Pip Movement

London session > New York session > Tokyo session

Now, let us see the average pip movement for some of the extensively traded currencies in the market.

How to trade the New York session

The New York session opens at 8:00 AM EST, which is during the London session. That is, there is an overlap between the two sessions. Since the world’s two largest markets are trading in the forex market, one can expect a high volume of orders flowing into the markets. Hence, this is an ideal time to enter the market as the spreads are quite low during this phase of time.

During the New York session, the economic news begins to drop. And as a matter of fact, 85% of the news is related to the US Dollar. So, news traders can keep a close watch on all the US Dollar pairs as the news typically moves the market drastically.

During the market open, the liquidity of the market is excellent, but as the noon approaches, it begins to drop. That is, during lunch hours, the market goes into a consolidation phase.

Another interesting fact to consider is, the market loses its momentum on Friday afternoon as the weekend begins for the Asian and the European markets. Hence, it is not a good idea to trade on Friday afternoons. Apart from momentum, it is possible for the markets to reverse its direction as the traders might look to square their positions off.

Which pairs should you have on your watchlist

The liquidity during the start of the session is excellent, as the London markets are open as well. So, during this time, you can choose to trade any pair. However, it is recommended to concentrate more on the major and minor currency pairs.

Several news events come in during this session. So, a news trader can take advantage of them, although a novice trader should stay away from pairs affected by such events, as it requires abilities unrelated to technical analysis.

Therefore, all in all, the New York session is a session that can be profitable for all types of traders. The volatility of the market during this session stands in between the London session and the Asian session. Hence, if you’re a novice trader, it is a good idea to start off with the New York session.

We have completed this short tutorial in the New York session. And in the next lesson, we shall go more precisely into when exactly to trade the Forex market. Let’s see if you have understood this lesson correctly by answering the questions below.

[wp_quiz id=”47122″]
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5. How Large & Liquid Is The Forex Market?

When compared to other markets like the stock and commodity market, the foreign exchange market is the largest in the world in terms of size and liquidity. In this lesson

When compared to other markets like the stock and commodity market, the foreign exchange market is the largest in the world in terms of size and liquidity. In this lesson

When compared to other markets like the stock and commodity market, the foreign exchange market is the largest in the world in terms of size and liquidity. In this lesson, we shall go over some insights on the size and liquidity of the forex market.

Where is the Forex market headquartered?

The stock markets across the world have different central exchanges where all the transactions are processed. But, in the case of the forex market, there is no central exchange (physical counter) where the transactions can be processed. In fact, this market runs electronically, connected by a network of banks. This, in short, is called an interbank market or an over-the-counter (OTC) market. Hence, this enables traders to trade in the forex market from anywhere in the world. Also, this is one of the reasons for its high volume of trading.

Forex market’s volume

The amount of money traded in the forex market is humongous. Being the most traded market, the value of it reaches up to $3 trillion. The number is made up of all the types of transactions performed in the market. The amount of different transactions is listed as follows:

$1,005 billion comes from spot transactions

$1,714 billion is added from forex swaps

$362 billion accounts for outright forwards

$129 billion for estimated gaps

Currency distribution in the Forex market

There are about seven currencies on which most transactions take place. Out of these currencies, the US Dollar dominates with around 85% of all the operations in the forex market. Next up in the line stands EUR, which is then followed by JPY and GBP. A graphical representation for the same is given below.

Here, the sum of all the variables totals to 200%, as currencies are traded in pairs.

What are the Foreign Exchange Reserves?

They are the assets that comprise banknotes, bonds, deposits, etc. The central bank of a country holds these with two primary purposes. One to maintain the balance payments of a country and the second is to control the confidence in financial markets. These reserves can be held in more than one currency.

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), 64% of the world’s forex reserves are made up of the US Dollar. And after USD comes GBP, JPY, and EUR comprising of 4%, 4%, and 2% of the world’s FX reserves, respectively.

Liquidity of the Forex market

Liquidity is simply the possibility to square off a position smooth and quick without causing the market to make a drastic move. In simple terms, liquidity is the level of supply and demand in the market. So, when there are large numbers of buyers and sellers in the market, we can call this market to be highly liquid.

With respect to the Forex market, it is the most liquid market in the world. This implies that the forex market constitutes a large number of participants (buyers and sellers). With high liquidity, one can liquidate their positions much faster and at their quoted price. Moreover, high liquidity causes the prices to move smoothly, gradually, and in small steps. Hence, this even leads to more consistency in the quoting of prices.

Below is the chart of EUR/USD on the 5-minute timeframe. We can see that the prices move smoothly in spite of being in a small timeframe.

Below is the chart of a small-cap stock in the US. Here, we can see that the prices are not moving in a flow, and there are gaps between the prices. And this is solely due to the lack of liquidity in the market.

That’s about the liquidity of the Forex market. We hope you had a good read. Check your learnings by answering the below quiz.

[wp_quiz id=”42489″]
Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, October 04 – Major Trade Setups – Buckle Up for NFP Event!

Daily FX Brief, October 04 – Major Trade Setups – Buckle Up for NFP Event! 
On Friday, the U.S. dollar index continues to weaken ahead of the U.S. NFP data

Daily FX Brief, October 04 – Major Trade Setups – Buckle Up for NFP Event! 
On Friday, the U.S. dollar index continues to weaken ahead of the U.S. NFP data

Daily FX Brief, October 04 – Major Trade Setups – Buckle Up for NFP Event! 

On Friday, the U.S. dollar index continues to weaken ahead of the U.S. NFP data, which is due in the New York session today. Lately, the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) released the Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) for Non-Manufacturing Goods as 51.6 against the expected 55.0 for September. 

The data showed that it fell to a 3-Year low this month. The release of weak indices of the Manufacturing and Non-manufacturing sector this week indicates the slow growth of the economy in the U.S. Consequently, we are seeing less growth in the U.S. dollar today.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

During the early Asian session, the EUR/USD currency pair hit the bullish track for the 4th consecutive day due to all-important United States Nonfarm Payroll data.

As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair presently trading at 1.0978, hit the high level of 1.0984 and showing 0.13% gains on the day. The pair maintained its gains for the 4th consecutive session.

On the other hand, all traders are presently expecting more than 80% odds of the rate cut by the 25-basis-points at the Federal Reserve next meeting later this month. The expectations were 64% on Wednesday, and 40% were on Monday, and currently reached 80% so far.

The increasing probabilities of an October Federal reserve rate cut also support the bullish track put forward by the hourly chart golden crossover.

At the U.S. Payroll front, the data is scheduled to release at 12:30 GMT an expected to show the economy added 145,000 jobs during the September after the 130,000 additions during the August. Besides this, the Average Hourly Earnings are found while increasing by 3.2% year on year, and the jobless rate is estimated to stay flat at 3.7%.

Whereas, the sluggish data will prop the dovish Federal Reserve expectations and pushing the greenback lower across the board.

As in consequences, probably the EUR/USD pair will come under pressure and possibly hit the low level of 1.09 if the data beats forecasted figures by a considerable margin.   


Daily Support and Resistance

   

S3 1.0823

S2 1.0883

S1 1.0921

Pivot Point 1.0943

R1 1.0981

R2 1.1002

R3 1.1062

EUR/USD – Trading Tips

Before Non-farm payrolls, the EUR/USD is consolidating in a narrow range. Investors await for NFP and trying to stay out of the market until the actual figure is out. The 50-hour moving average (M.A.) had a hit above the 200-hour M.A., confirming a golden crossover – a buyer market sign. Therefore, the pair seems set to maintain the continuous recovery rally from recent lows near 1.0880. 

Consider staying bullish above 1.0970 to target 1.1040. The bearish target can be set at 1.0880. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY closed at 106.910 after placing a low of 106.480 on Thursday. With no economic release from japan side, the movement of USD/JPY solely depended on U.S. dollars on Thursday. The weak ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at 19:00 GMT indicated a slowdown in the economic activity of the United States by coming as 52.6 against 55.1 expected. This raised the concerns of the U.S. falling under recession after the continuous disappointing economic releases from the U.S. for three consecutive days. 

On Wednesday U.S. Private sector showed that the hiring made by them in September was not satisfactorily affected by the trade disputes prevailing between U.S. & China.

Concerning trade disputes, on Wednesday, there was another announcement from Trump’s administration related to the Tariffs on European Goods. 

With the increased chances of U.S. economic slowdown and a third rate cut by Federal Reserve in upcoming policy meeting, the U.S. Dollar faced pressure for 3rd consecutive day and has made USD/JPY to move in Bearish Trend.

Other economic releases from the United States on Thursday were, the Unemployment Claims at 17:30 GMT, came as 219K against 215K expected, weighed the U.S. Dollar. At 18:45 GMT, the Final Services PMI came as expected 50.9. The Factory Orders came in favor of U.S. Dollar as -0.1% against -0.5% expected.



Daily Support and Resistance 

S3 105.7

S2 106.53

S1 106.86

Pivot Point 107.37

R1 107.69

R2 108.2

R3 109.04

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY continues to trade bearish after violating the bullish channel on the 240 mins chart. The USD/JPY is now holding below 50 periods EMA, which is suggesting bearish bias among traders. 

On the lower side, the USD/JPY is likely to gain support at 106.400 area. The MACD and RSI are holding below 0 and 50, suggesting odds or more bearish bias in the USD/JPY. Let’s stay bearish below 107 to target 106.400 today. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair hit the high level of 1.2350 and maintains the recovery rally, as worries about the U.S. fundamentals weighing over the Brexit news.

The US ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index PMI is entering the previous manufacturing level from the same surveyor. Besides, the increased level of uncertainty coming from the survey has extended pullback in the greenback from the 2-year highs.

On the other hand, the GBP/USD pair trades started the day with headlines concerning the European Union. The EU has given 7-days more to the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson to announce a better offer. The Tory leader could increase the support of thirty-labour rebels that supports the Breit deal.

Later in the day, investors will keep their eyes on the September month employment data, namely Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings. After the news report, the eyes will remain on the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at the “Federal Reserve the meeting.

    



Daily Support and Resistance

    

S3 1.2088

S2 1.2186

S1 1.2242

Pivot Point 1.2283

R1 1.234

R2 1.2381

R3 1.2479

GBP/USD – Trading Tips

On the technical view, the 130-pip area between 50-day and 21-day simple moving averages (SMA), 1.2250, and 1.2380, respectively, may keep the pair’s trading moves limited. Today, consider staying bullish above 1.2330 to target 1.2400 and 1.2500. Whereas, the GBP/USD may remain bearish below 1.2330 to target 1.2275 and 1.2230. 

 All the best! 

 

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

June 29 – Technical Update on S&P500 & Gold – U.S. GDP Disappoints

The financial markets remained heavily volatile due to a series of market-moving economic events like the German CPI and U.S. Final GDP.  Well, the game isn’t over yet. We have

The financial markets remained heavily volatile due to a series of market-moving economic events like the German CPI and U.S. Final GDP.  Well, the game isn’t over yet. We have

The financial markets remained heavily volatile due to a series of market-moving economic events like the German CPI and U.S. Final GDP.  Well, the game isn’t over yet. We have another series of high impact economic events coming out of the market on Friday. Let’s take a quick look.

 

Top Economic Events to Trade

  • EUR – German Retail Sales m/m – 6:00 (GMT)
  • GBP – Current Account – 8:30 (GMT)
  • GBP – Final GDP q/q – 8:30 (GMT)
  • EUR – CPI Flash Estimate y/y – 9:00 (GMT)    
  • CAD – GDP m/m – 12:30 (GMT)
  • USD –  Chicago PMI – 13:45 (GMT)

 

Although there are lot more economic events due to be released, these are the most important ones and may help you capture a nice amount of pips.     

 

Gold – XAU/USD – Daily Outlook

On Thursday, gold plunged to its weakest level in six months to trade at $1,247. Most of the selling came in response to escalating pressure from the trade war and the sentiments of higher U.S. interest rates which continues to weigh on gold. Nevertheless, we can expect a modest reversal in the near term. Price action is expected to retrace the decays back to 1263, the same level which earlier served as support.



 

Support     Resistance 

1252.5    1259.76

1250.26    1262

1246.63    1265.63

Key Trading Level:    1256.13

              

 

SPX – S&P 500 – Technical Outlook

SPX is trading bullish near 2718 after gaining support above 2694. On the 4- hour chart, the upward trendline is also extending support near 2679. While the resistance prevails at 2732 and 2745 today, the main trend is up as per the daily swing chart, but, momentum is trending lower. A trade through 2679.25 will convert the main trend (bullish) into the bearish bias.



 

Overall, the main trading range of SPX is 2595 to 2796. The index is currently testing the upper or 50% level of this range at 2795.75.

 

Support     Resistance 

2697.19    2732.87

2686.16    2743.9

2668.32    2761.74

Key Trading Level:    2715.03

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

What to Expect to the Dollar Index during the Second Half of the Year?

What to Expect to the Dollar Index <DXY> during the Second Half of the Year?

The Dollar Index <DXY> has developed an upward impulsive movement during the first

What to Expect to the Dollar Index <DXY> during the Second Half of the Year?

The Dollar Index <DXY> has developed an upward impulsive movement during the first

What to Expect to the Dollar Index <DXY> during the Second Half of the Year?

Dollar Index

The Dollar Index <DXY> has developed an upward impulsive movement during the first half of the year. The bullish cycle began on February 16th when it touched the lowest level of the year at 88.25. From this level, it started the first bullish impulse that took it up to 90.93, where it began a consolidation structure that finished in April; a period in which DXY climbed as a wave 3 from 89.23 to 95.03. Finally, after a retracement as a wave 4, the greenback soared to 95.53, exceeding the highest level attained in November 2017 when the price reached 95.15 and completing a major grade cycle.

The fact that DXY has surpassed last November 2017’s peak makes us think the Dollar Index might make new highs in the long term. During the second half of 2018, we expect the US Dollar to make a corrective movement as an A-B-C pattern that should carry it to seek support at the 93.27 level in the first instance. Then, after a corrective upward sequence to 94, we could see it fall as a C pattern to the area between 91.64 and 91.03, from where a new upward cycle could begin.


Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Bullish Economy at a Crossroad: Free Trade against Protectionism

 

 

 

Underlying Events

Last week’s volatility was fueled early Monday by Italy’s political instability as Italian president Sergio Mattarella refused to appoint Giuseppe Conte, a Eurosceptic, as Finance Minister even though he has the backing of the majority of the parliament.

Then, on May 30, as fears about Italy eased the markets focused its attention on EU officials statements against the US imposed tariffs on steel and aluminium.

“The US is playing a dangerous game by slapping tariffs on European steel and aluminium,” said Cecilia Malmstrom, warning about the consequences for economic recovery on the EU as well as US industry. (source BBC)

 

 Last week’s Economic Calendar was full of interesting releases

 

US

May’s US Consumer Confidence figure is at its historic highs, at its estimated 128.0 level, non-farm unemployment is at 3.8%, and US GDP (QoQ) grew at 2.2% a tick below estimations, while US Advance Goods Trade Balance was below expectations at -68.2b.

On the consumer front, May 31 brought us the US PCE Core (YoY) that is stable at 1.8%, the Personal Income (APR) stable at 0.3%, and Pending Home Sales (MoM) below expectations at -1.3%, below the expected 0.4%.

On the Energy Front, crude oil inventories were -3620K well below the expected 450k, while the gasoline inventories were 634K, above the expected -1200K

Finally, the USD Manufacturing figures were a bit above expectations, at 58.7 over 58.2 expected.

Eurozone

German retail sales on April (MoM)grew 2.3% well above the expected 0.5% although the yearly figure fell to 1.2% growth, below the expected 1.6%.

On the unemployment front, Germany’s May unemployment change was -11K above the expectations, and the unemployment Claims rate dropped one centile to 5.2%.

Britain’s consumer credit grew to 1.84B, above the expected 1.3B, while the mortgage approvals slightly descended to 62.5K, below the expected 63.2K

Swiss’s main figure this week was its Gross Domestic Product (YoY) for the first quarter at 2.2%, slightly below the expected 2.3%.

Japan:

JPY retail trade (YoY) grew 1.6%, above the expected 1%, while JPY retail sales figure was down -0.8% below the expected 0.2%. Also, JPY industrial production for April was up 2.5%, below the expected 3.6%.

Canada:

Last week BoC kept its interest rate unchanged at 1.25%, as was expected. However, its GDP figure for the first quarter was a disappointing annualised 1.3%, below the expected 1.8%

The overall picture of this economic background is that of a strong US economy, a not so strong Eurozone, and a possible weakening of the Canadian economy. This is especially sensitive as both Europe and Canada have a potential tariffs war against the USA. We also see weakened Japanese industrial production.

All this make us think on the continuation of the strength of the US Dollar and a further weakening scenario for the Euro, the Pound, and the Yen.

Next Week

 

G7

Next week lacks major economic reports and no earnings news, so markets will possibly pay attention to political developments that will fill the headlines, such as President Trump’s trade wars, or the G7 summit by the end of the week in Canada. Mr Trump is expected to arrive on Friday and meet leaders from Germany, UK, France, Italy, and Japan. A statement of the other six members of the group showed their “unanimous concern” about US tariffs.

 

US Trade Data.

To be released on Wednesday (14:30 GMT+2). The forecasted deficit is 50.0 B from 49B in March.

 

China Trade Figures:

To be released in the early hours of Friday. The expectations are for an increase of the surplus figures to $32.5B, higher than last month’s $28.8 B.

It is expected that exports will grow by 6.3% and imports to rise 16%.

 

RBA Policy meeting:

Due on Tuesday early morning, it will likely keep its rates unchanged at 1.5%.

We should also pay attention to the New Zealand GDP release early Wednesday.

 

Technical Analysis

S&P 500

The S&P 500 behave very bullishly on a weekly basis, although it suffered some drawbacks during the week. Technically the price moves inside a very steep upward channel, but right now it is close to a resistance area that matches the opening of a large red candle drawn in March. We need to watch how the price reacts here. If it is crossed next week we see a free path to head for January highs, mid-term.


 

Ehlers Adaptive Moving Average MAMA and cycle indicator show a bullish momentum is developing. The only black cloud in the sky is that the price is facing a strong resistance area.


 

DAX

The weekly chart shows that the DAX and the Euro-zone are not confident of its economic outlook.  The Index has drawn two consecutive bearish candles and we see that it shows descending lows. Its Cycle Indicator also points to the downside.

We have to pay attention next week to the US index because the DAX is correlated to it, but if we only pay attention to the technical outlook, we are more in the side of the bearish scenario.


The daily chart doesn’t change its outlook. We see that the price broke the triangular formation to the downside and tested it three times last week without being able to break it. Last Friday, although the session closed with gains, the inside candle drawn shows indecision and doubt. The most probable scenario is for the DAX to head down to test the support at 12378 level.


 

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index weekly chart shows a Spinning Top candle, while Ehlers’ Cycle indicator has changed to bearish. This may indicate that last week’s correction isn’t finished yet and we may look for a test of the Fibo 0.38 or, even to a 50% retracement, although this is less probable.


 

The Dollar Index daily chart’s engulfing candle that happened on May 29 has been challenged but not successfully. The Cycle indicator also points to the bearish side. Therefore our expectation is for more drops next week.


 

This means the Euro and GBP could still be retracing their heavy drops that started mid-May.

 

USDJPY

On a weekly chart the pair made an engulfing candle two weeks ago, and last week it continues moving down toward its support zone, where it bounced sharply up creating a hammer.
The price is moving mainly by its fundamentals, and now it is heading to the resistance area (green rectangle ). We may see the pair moving between those two areas for some time.


Looking at the daily chart, the pair broke the triangle formation to the upside with a large candle. The cycle indicator also points upward.
The target level is at its recent highs.


 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Canadian Dollar Interest Rate Decision

The Canadian central bank maintained its overnight policy rate at 1.25% today and there were no surprises on the data release as some overnight swap rates had suggested a 90% chance of no change. Although there is a broad-based view that markets are pricing in a 25bps rate hike by October.

The Loonie had lost some ground against the greenback over recent days, which was largely due to an easing in oil prices and a firmer USD. Spot USDCAD had lifted to 1.3040 overnight but dipped down to 1.2952 prior to the news release on firmer WTI and Brent crude oil prices today, before moving above the 1.30 handle prior to the data release.

With NAFTA nowhere closer to a resolution, the Loonie has struggled to find firmer ground recently. However, just after the news release USDCAD plummeted to 1.2880 at the time of writing. This was highly likey due to the BoC dropping its reference to being ‘cautious’ on rates.

Categories
Forex Trading Strategies

The Connors & Raschke’s 80-20 Strategy

Introduction

 

The original Connors & Raschke’s 80-20 Strategy is an intraday strategy that was published in Street Smarts by Larry Connors and Linda Raschke.

It is based on

Introduction

 

The original Connors & Raschke’s 80-20 Strategy is an intraday strategy that was published in Street Smarts by Larry Connors and Linda Raschke.

It is based on

Introduction

 

The original Connors & Raschke’s 80-20 Strategy is an intraday strategy that was published in Street Smarts by Larry Connors and Linda Raschke.

It is based on the Taylor Trading Technique, which is a manual for swing trading. Taylor’s method was the result of the observation that the markets move within a cycle that is made up of a buy day, a sell day, and a sell short day. That setup was further investigated by Steve Moore ar the Moore Research Center.

Mr. Moore focused on days that closed in the top 10% of the range for the day. Then, he checked on for the percent of time next day prices exceeded the previously established high, and, also, for the percentage of times it also closed higher.

His results showed that when prices closed in the top/bottom 10% of its range, it had an 80-90% chance of following-through the next session, but only 50% of them closed higher/lower. This fact implied an excellent possibility of reversal.

Derek Gibson, said Connors, found out that the market has an even higher chance of reversing if the set-up bar opened in the opposite end of the range. That is, a candlestick with short wicks and a large body. Therefore this pre-condition was added. To create more opportunities, they lowered the percent of the daily range from 90 to 80, because it didn’t affect the system’s profitability.

Long Setups

  1. Yesterday, the asset opened in the top 20% and closed in the lower 20% of its daily range.
  2. Today the market must trade at least 5-15 ticks below yesterday’s low. This is a guideline.
  3. An entry buy stop is then placed at yesterday’s low, once the trade is being filled, and an initial protective stop near the low extreme of today’s action.

Move the stop to lock in profits. This trade is a day trade only.

 

Short setups

  1. Yesterday the asset opened in the bottom 20% and closed in the higher 20% of its daily range.
  2. Today the market must trade at least 5-15 ticks above yesterday’s high This is a guideline.
  3. An entry sell stop is then placed at yesterday’s high, after being filled, and an initial protective stop near the upper extreme of today.

Move the stop to lock in profits. This trade is a day trade only.

 

Example of a trade

 

The Connors & Raschke's 80-20 Strategy

Testing the Strategy

We tested this strategy using the backtesting capabilities of the Multicharts64 version 11 Platform.

The naked strategy, as is, in EURUSD, USDGPY, and USDCHF over a range of 17 years, were positive in all cases. Below the equity curves for the three pairs:

 

Examining the parameter map

 

The figure above shows the parameter maps of the USD_CHF and the EUR_USD pairs. We see that the return of the strategy increases as the parameters move to the 50% level, meaning that the importance of the starting and ending point (Open to Close) in the previous candlestick is not essential. The critical fact is the next day’s break above(below) the previous highs(lows) and the subsequent return to that level (False Breakout).

 

Example of  50-50 System with optimized stops and targets on the EURUSD

 

As we said, this is a 50-50 system, meaning that we don’t care in which part of the candle is the Open and Close. This is a simple false breakout system.

We see that the curve is quite good over its 17-year history. Starting with 10,000 dollars, the final equity reached $72,000, for a 6X profit figure.

 

Looking at the Total Trade Analysis table, we can observe that this system is also robust, with almost 40% winners and an average Ratio Win to Average loss ( Reward/risk) of 2.19.

 

The shuffled Trades Analysis shows that the system is very reliable, with a likelihood of small drawdowns, depicting a max consecutive loss of 16 trades.

 

The Net Profit distribution Analysis shows that there is a 75% probability of getting a 5X equity profit over 16 years and a 25% probability of getting a 7X profit figure.

 

Above is the Max Consecutive Losing Streak analysis, which shows that there is less than 10% probability of ending above a 16 losing streak. Although you think that a 16-losing-streak is terrible, it is not, but we need to be prepared psychologically to endure it. This figure is the one needed to help us conservatively decide our risk strategy.

As I already mentioned in other strategy analyses, you, as a trader, need to decide which percent of your equity you can lose without losing your temper. Many don’t like to lose any amount so they shouldn’t trade, because losing streaks are part of the trading job. Many would say 10% while others 50%. That figure has a close relation to the rate of growth of your trading account because it will decide the size of your position.

And here it comes the way to do it. Once we know the distribution of drawdowns of our trading system, we, as traders, want to minimize the probabilities that a losing streak goes beyond our max drawdown figure. This is an approximation, but its good enough to allow us to decide the best position size for our risk tastes.

Let’s say we are an average-risk trader, and we will be upset if we lose ¼ of our account. Using this trading system, and admitting a 10% probability of error, we would choose 16 as the losing streak to compute our size per trade.

Therefore, we divide 25% equity drawdown by 16, which is 1.56%. In this case, we must trade using a 1.56% risk on every trade. That means that the cost of a trade computed by the distance from entry to stop-loss levels, multiplied by the dollar pip risk and by the number of contracts should be 1.56% of your current equity balance.

Let’s simplify it using elementary math:

Percent Risk (PR) = MaxDD / Max_losing_Streak

Dollar Risk = PR x Equity_Balance

Dollar Risk = (Entry-Stop) x PipCost x Nr_of_Contracts

Let’s call Entry-Stop, Pips. And NC the Number of Contracts. Then the equation is:

Dollar Risk = Pips x PipCost x NC

Let’s move the elements from this equation to compute the Nr of contracts.

NC = Dollar_Risk / (Pips x PipCost)

 

That’s all. Every trade will be different, and the distance in pips from entry to stop loss will be different, but we can compute the number of contracts quickly:

Let’s do an example. Our current balance is right now $12.000, and we want to enter a trade with 20 pips of risk, and our cost per pip is $10 per lot. Which is my optimal size?

Our Dollar Risk is 1.56% of $12,000 or $187

NC = 187 / (20 x 10) = 0.93 lots, or 93 micro-lots.

 

Computing the Performance of the System

 

Now we want to know how much on average are we going to get, monthly, from this system. That is easily computed using the numbers above. We know that this system’s history is 205 months long, and it had 1401 trades, which is seven trades per month on average. Evidently, this system trades very scarcely, but we can hold a basket of assets. Thus, If we manage to get a basket of 10 holdings, including pairs, crosses, indices, and metals, we could trade 70 times per month. And those trades will not overlap most of the time if the assets are chosen uncorrelated.

Based on our risk profile and the average Reward-to-risk ratio, we know that our average winning trade will be 2.2 times our average losing trade.

So,

AvgWin = 411

AvgLoss = 187

Our winning percentage is 40%, so our losing one is 60%

Then on a 10-asset basket, there will be 28 winners and 42 losers monthly, then:

Gross Profit: 411*28 = 11,508

Gross Loss:  42*187 =  7,854

Average Monthly Net Profit =11,508 – 7,854 = 3,654

This is an average 30,4% monthly from a $12,000 balance. Not bad!

 

Note: The computations and graphs were done using Multicharts 11 trading platform.

 

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

XAUUSD Resting On A Key Area, Breakdown Imminent

 

 

XAUUSD

 

XAUUSD resting on capitulation zone

XAUUSD is resting on a very key area and trend line. It is already trading within an expansive trading range in a Square of 90 and if we are to follow the conditions of Gann’s Rule of Angles, the target area for XAUUSD to test is the 1238 value area. This temporary reprieve within this open zone is being held up by an uptrend line that started back in December of 2016. Also, we are approaching a perfect square in price and time within the Square of 90: the 50% level of time and 50% level of price intersect along with the major 45-degree angles on June 20th. Violent moves should be expected both before and after this date. Because the trend has thus far been up, this confluence zone should be treated as a resistance in time to the trend in force.

 

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Update 21.05.2018 – Indecision

General Overview

Crypto Market Update Today:

Market Cap: $389,840,003,354

24h Vol: $17,523,547,047

BTC Dominance: 37.2%
In the last 24 hours, cryptocurrency market cap

General Overview

Crypto Market Update Today:

Market Cap: $389,840,003,354

24h Vol: $17,523,547,047

BTC Dominance: 37.2%
In the last 24 hours, cryptocurrency market cap

General Overview

Crypto Market Update Today:

Market Cap: $389,840,003,354

24h Vol: $17,523,547,047

BTC Dominance: 37.2%

In the last 24 hours, cryptocurrency market cap has increased from $375B to slightly below $390B.

Crypto Market Update TodayThe market is mostly in green, with the biggest gainers among top 100 being Tron +14%, Skycoin 10%, Holo 20%.

News

There isn’t any significant news that came out during the weekend. Top stories are therefore analytical in nature or follow-ups from prior stories.  These are some of the more significant headlines:

Iran and Russia Discuss Transacting in Crypto to Avoid International Sanctions

Iran and Russia could start using cryptocurrencies to avoid Western sanctions, Russian news portal RBC reported yesterday, May 17.

Norway Central Bank Considers Developing Digital Currency

Norway’s central bank, Norges Bank, is considering developing its own digital currency as a supplement to cash to “ensure confidence in money and the monetary system”, according to a working paper May 18.

Former UK Visa CEO Takes Helm of Crypto Consumer Payment Startup

The former head of Visa in the UK and Ireland has joined a startup bringing crypto to consumer payments, Business Insider NL reports today, May 19.

WSJ: Coinbase Spoke to U.S. Regulators About Acquiring Federal Banking License

Major U.S. cryptocurrency exchange and wallet Coinbase spoke to regulators about obtaining a federal banking charter, according to a report by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) May 18.

Source: cointelegraph.com

Analysis

BTC/USD

From yesterday’s open, the price of Bitcoin has increased by 3.4%, going from $8229 to $8510 where it is currently sitting.



 

On the daily chart, we can see that the price is currently a red doji above 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level.  We can also see a breakout from the falling wedge.


 

Zooming into an hourly chart, we can see the interaction with the Fibo level, and the momentum behind the up move. Price action formed a double top, with the last top’s candles closed with two massive wicks from the upside, which indicates selling pressure.

Market sentiment

Bitcoin is in the buy zone, as indicated by hourly chart technicals.

Oscillators are on buy, and moving averages on a strong one.

Pivot points

S3 7578.2 
S2 8004.6 
S1 8264.2 
P 8431.0
R1 8690.6 
R2 8857.4 
R3 9283.8

ETH/USD

The price of Ethereum has increased by 3.34% from yesterday’s open, going from $690 to $712,8 where it is currently.



 

Looking at the daily chart, we can see that the current candle is a red doji, like in the case of Bitcoin, and it sits at the levels of prior high.



 

Zooming into an hourly chart, we can see that the price has retraced to retest the support, which is on the levels of prior high at $712. We can also see a breakout from a triangle which wasn’t that strong, as the impulse behind the move looks like any other prior move.

Market sentiment

Ethereum is in the neutral zone, as hourly chart technicals are on neutral.

Pivot points

S3 638.08 
S2 673.30 
S1 694.40 

P 708.52 

R1 729.62 
R2 743.74 
R3 778.96

XRP/USD

In the last 24 hours, the price of Ripple has increased by 3.17%, from $0,67250 to $0,69436. The price has been steadily rising and is now facing first strong resistance.


 

On the daily chart, we can see that the current candle is red, and is sitting at the levels of prior high.



 

The hourly chart paints a clearer picture. We can see that the price is still in an upward channel which is inside the symmetrical triangle pattern. The price found resistance on the triangle’s resistance line levels and is currently struggling to keep up the upward movement.

Market sentiment

Hourly chart technicals are on neutral, so the price of Ripple is currently indecisive.

Pivot points

S3 0.61264 
S2 0.65176 
S1 0.67536 

P 0.69088 

R1 0.71448 
R2 0.73000 
R3 0.76912

Conclusion

Crypto Market Update Today: In the last day, we have seen an upward movement has been stopped by first major resistance, as seen on the charts from three major cryptocurrencies that we are covering in this daily report. The market is currently showing signs of indecision indicated from the current candles being Dojis. We are likely to see a move down, which would be a final corrective move, before a new runup to new highs.

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily Market Update: Eurozone Outlook

News Commentary

The German Final CPI results were not unexpected. The indicator dropped to 0.0%, marking a 3-month low. The Eurozone Final CPI went to 1.2%, down from 1.3%

News Commentary

The German Final CPI results were not unexpected. The indicator dropped to 0.0%, marking a 3-month low. The Eurozone Final CPI went to 1.2%, down from 1.3%

News Commentary

The German Final CPI results were not unexpected. The indicator dropped to 0.0%, marking a 3-month low. The Eurozone Final CPI went to 1.2%, down from 1.3% last month. The Eurozone Final Core CPI dropped from 1.0% to 0.7%. If inflation levels continue to soften, the ECB will have to extend its stimulus program, which is set to run until September. Germany will release additional inflation numbers on Friday.

First-quarter Eurozone and German GDP data were within expectations, but investors should not become too bullish, as the numbers referred to a slowdown in the economy. Both Germany and the Eurozone gained 0.6% in the fourth quarter of 2017. Analysts don’t seem optimistic. The German indicator posted a sharp drop of -8.2 for a second straight month, the first declines since July 2016. The low reading certainly doesn’t show much optimism.

The EUR has another battle with Italy’s new leader’s elections, who may propose new deficit spending that appears to tighten the EU Growth.

All eyes will be on US Unemployment Claims with expectations of 216K.

Chart Analysis

EUR/USD

On the daily chart, the price has a strong down rally after reversing from the resistance level of 1.1950 with a pin bar. The price is expected to go down to the support zone of 1.1680-1.1550, provided by the broken descending lower channel. Then, it is supposed to work its way back up from these levels with a push from the harmonic pattern & divergence in RSI to reach the resistance zone again.


 

 

USD/JPY

The price is located at a very strong short-selling area, rebounding from the descending trend line from the high of 2018. Besides the broken uptrend line from the low of 2011, also reaching the top edge of the upward channel along with forming an AB=CD harmonic pattern with divergence on RSI. The price also is about to shape a double top pattern. We will wait for a bounce from these levels and break beneath the upward channel to go short to our targets of 108.1 then 104.8.

 


 

 

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Forex Market Analysis

AUDUSD – May 8th, 2018

AUDUSD

There should be a bounce form the 0.744 level, it’s in a harmonic pivot and oversold condition coming off of the extremely important 0.75 mid harmonic. We should expect a retest of the 0.75 zone before continuing lower. From the latest low of 0.74338 to the most recent swing high of 0.7506, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level is sitting right on the last out arc and the 0.75 major harmonic price level. We should expect some fast price reversals here that may exceed the 0.75 zone, but ultimately we should expect lower prices moving forward into next week.

©Forex.Academy
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Forex Market Analysis

XAUUSD short idea, May 7th, 2018

XAUUSD

XAUUSD is currently resting right against an important angle that is acting as resistance (the 5×1 angle). Considering the square that we are trading in, we are trading significantly above the current 45-degree angle. A violent snap back (fast selloff lower) should be expected. Additionally, we are trading in a very textbook example of a bear flag. The continued strength of the dollar should continue to drive gold lower here and another leg down is certainly a strong probability. There is little risk associated with this trade and significant possible profit.

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Forex Market Analysis

GBPUSD Weekly Analysis (week of April 30th, 2018)

Update to original trade idea/signal on April 18th, 2018

GBPUSD

The GBPUSD pair continues to drive lower and break various trend lines and important harmonic value areas. The thrust down has been quite impressive but should not be expected. For over a year and a half, this consistent drive up has failed to provide any honesty and integrity in the move. The only way to find honesty and integrity in such a drive higher is for the previous value areas to be tested; and that has not happened.

Consider this: the most recent swing high made on the 17th of April and the swing low of this trend back on October 7th of 2016 has failed to even show a test of a 50% retracement. In fact, no swing high from that low has yielded a test of a 50% retracement. Some analysts would say that is evidence of a strong trend. No doubt! It is strong! But it’s also void of any honesty. And we will see that move happening soon. The 50% retracement in this swing is the 1.30 value area, that’s a whopping 1300 pips from the most recent swing high.

We are seeing more and more confirmations of a lower drive in the GBPUSD pair, and most importantly is the current price action that shows us trading below an extremely important uptrend line.

And a note to new traders: Be very careful trying to go long on this pair, especially if you are using oscillators to signal your long entries. Oscillators can remain AND DO REMAIN in overbought/oversold conditions for an exceptionally long time. 

©Forex.Academy

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Crypto Market Analysis

Cryptocurrency Market Is On The Rise Again

General overview

Market Cap: $413,692,195,374

24h Vol: $26,702,372,910

BTC Dominance: 37.9%

Since yesterday, cryptocurrency market cap is on the rise again. Market capitalization was  380,513,000,000$ at the lowers point, and it has increased to almost 416B.Cryptocurrency Market Cap Is On The Rise Again

The market is in green, and some of the biggest gainers among top 100 are Siacoin +52% and Bitcoin Diamond 42%. Other cryptos are about 7-9% up on average since yesterday.

News

IBM And Jewelry Industry Leaders To Use Blockchain To Trace Origin Of Diamonds

>Leaders in the gold and diamond industry have partnered with IBM to develop a blockchain network for tracing the origin of finished pieces of jewelry, IBM announced in a blog post-April 26.
Source: cointelegraph.com

Mt. Gox Moves Around $165 Mln In BTC And BCH From Its Wallets
>16,000 Bitcoin (BTC) and 16,000 Bitcoin Cash (BCH) have been moved out of cold wallets associated with the infamous, now defunct Japanese Bitcoin (BTC) exchange MT. Gox today, April 26, according to Mt. Gox cold wallet tracking data on Crypto Ground.

Source: cointelegraph.com

Comcast’s Venture Capital Arm Is Bullish On Bitcoin and Blockchain

>Gil Beyda, managing director of the venture capital (VC) arm of Comcast, appeared on CNBC today, April 26, with a bullish outlook for Bitcoin and real-world applications of blockchain technology

Source: cointelegraph.com

17 Mln Of Total 21 Mln Bitcoins Now Mined In Milestone For Digital Scarcity

>In a round million milestone, 17 mln bitcoins (BTC) have now been mined as of today, April 26, according to data from statoshi.info. Because of Bitcoin’s supply cap of 21 mln, this means that only four mln Bitcoin, or about 19 percent, remain to be mined.

Source: cointelegraph.com

 

Analysis

BTC/USDBTC/USD

In the last 24 hours, the price of Bitcoin has increased by 5,42% coming from 8750$ to 9200$ where it is now. Looking at the daily chart we can see that the price went above 0.5 Fibonacci level and the 100 day EMA againThe current sentiment for Bitcoin is positive according to sentimnt.io having 74% positive mentions out of 70 in total.

The current sentiment for Bitcoin is positive according to sentimnt.io having 74% positive mentions out of 70 in total.

 

Bitcoin is positive having 74% positive mentions out of 70 in totalZooming into an hourly chart, we can see that the move to the upside had momentum and that the price has formed a mini cup and handle.

Overall hourly chart signals a buy.

Overall hourly chart signals a buy

Pivot points

S3        6109.5
S2        7355.5
S1        8134.0
P          8601.5
R1       9380.0
R2       9847.5
R3       11093.5

 

ETH/USD

ETH/USD

Since the start of April 26 until now the price of Ethereum went from 599$ to 651$ which is an 8,45% increase. Looking at the daily chart, we can observe that the price went above 1.618 Fibo level and is now sitting right on it. 100 day EMA is also below serving as support.Ethereum is very positive

The current sentiment for Ethereum is very positive according to sentimnt.io having 82% positive mentions out of 67 in total.

Ethereum is very positiveHourly chart is similar to that of Bitcoin, meaning that the price is forming a mini cup and handle pattern.

 

Overall hourly chart signals a buyOverall hourly chart signals a buy

Pivot points

S3        324.51

S2        450.42
S1        527.43
P          576.33
R1       653.34
R2       702.24
R3       828.15

XRP/USD

XRP/USD

The price of Ripple has also increased in the last 24 hours and did so by 7,83% coming from 0.772$ to 0.832$. The daily chart is looking bullish, as the price is above 100-day EMA.

The current sentiment for Ripple is negativeThe current sentiment for Ripple is negative, having 61,5% negative mentions out of 13 in total, according to sentimnt.io

RIPPLE

 

Hourly chart is similar to that of Bitcoin and Ethereum, however, unlike those cryptocurrencies, XRP is below 100 EMA.

Overall hourly chart signals a buy.Hourly chart is similar to that of Bitcoin and Ethereum

Pivot points

S3        0.20439

S2        0.50804
S1        0.68659
P          0.81169
R1       0.99024
R2       1.11534
R3       1.41899

 

Conclusion

A strong correlation between the three largest cryptocurrencies is shown, meaning that the chart looks pretty much the same. Market capitalization hasn’t exceeded the prior high at around 434B and has formed a mini cup and handle that retraced back to prior lows for a retest of support. In the next 24 hours, we are going to monitor what is going to happen but, I am expecting a new influx of money into the market, which will push the evaluation further to breakout and form new highs above 434B evaluation.

©Forex.Academy

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

XAUUSD long term short signal

Monthly and Weekly charts essential for determining an intraday bias. In order to identify a bias, a thorough analysis must be done using as little analysis as possible. Simple is better when it comes to a long-term forecast (forecasting over a series of weeks or months).

Monthly Chart

This is an extremely bearish candlestick on the daily chart, a firm inverted hammer with excellent selling conditions on the Composite Index.

Weekly Chart

The weekly chart also shows some significant bearish sentiment ahead. Price is very near a pivot in time (red vertical line). More importantly, the 1326.24 value area is a natural middle harmonic, and XAUUSD has failed to trade above it on the current weekly chart. Additionally, the wedge that XAUUSD has been trading is becoming weak: the current price level in relation to both the Composite Index and the Composite Index and the RSI indicates a very high probability of that bottom wedge line being breached.

Near-term target: 1282.68 value area.

Long-term target of a return to the 1239.13 value area.

©Forex.Academy

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Forex Market Analysis

April 23 – 27: Top 2 Setups to Watch This Week – Dollar Index & Nikkei In Focus!

In this update, we will discuss fundamentals & technical setups, that are worth watching during the coming week. On Friday, the US dollar climbed to a two-week high vs. a

In this update, we will discuss fundamentals & technical setups, that are worth watching during the coming week. On Friday, the US dollar climbed to a two-week high vs. a

In this update, we will discuss fundamentals & technical setups, that are worth watching during the coming week. On Friday, the US dollar climbed to a two-week high vs. a basket of currencies as risk-off sentiment wanes.

 

US Dollar Index – Double Top Resistance

The Dollar Index soared dramatically after breaking a trendline resistance level at 89.70. Most of the buyers entered the market for two reasons:

– Firstly, the single currency Euro fell sharply to a two-week low vs. the greenback as the European Central Bank (ECB) is due to release its monetary policy decision in the coming week (on April 26) and traders seem to price in the dovish monetary policy. A drop in Euro is driving more bulls to the US Dollar.

– Secondly, the investors switched their investments from pound to the greenback after the Sterling extended losses in the wake of dovish remarks from the head of the BOE (Bank of England).

 

Dollar Index – Forecast

Technically, the index is overbought (RSI above 70) and bulls are exhausted. We may see a retracement up to 90 and 89.75 before seeing another bullish wave in the dollar. On the upper side, Dollar index can face a solid resistance near 90.55 and 90.85.

Nikkei 225 – Shooting Star Pattern In Play

The Japanese stock market index Nikkei gave up 0.1% to 22,162.24. The index grew 1.8% this week, its fourth straight weekly gains. However, the markets remained muted on Friday as investors didn’t find any solid reason to trade the Nikkei. But they do have it for the coming week.

The BOJ (Bank of Japan) is scheduled to release the monetary policy report on April 27. Investors appear to save their shots before the release of the policy rate. BOJ is widely expected to keep the interest rates on hold at -0.10%.

Nikkei 225 – Forecast

The Japanese index Nikkei is trading below a double top resistance level of 22,380. The leading indicators RSI and Stochastics are moving in the overbought zone and signaling a potential for a bearish reversal. Moreover, Nikkei has formed a shooting star below 22,385 which is signaling a neutral sentiment of investors. The breakout of 22,385 can lead the index to next resistance level of 22,985 and 24,000. Whereas, the support remains at 20950.

© Forex.Academy

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Forex Market Analysis

Consolidation In The Crypto Market

Cryptocurrencies have been stagnant and without many big moves to either side. The reason for that is the uncertainty abbot what happens on the tax day. We see less movement

Cryptocurrencies have been stagnant and without many big moves to either side. The reason for that is the uncertainty abbot what happens on the tax day. We see less movement

Cryptocurrencies have been stagnant and without many big moves to either side. The reason for that is the uncertainty abbot what happens on the tax day. We see less movement in crypto because, whoever wanted to pull their money out before tax date, did already, and we now see only people that hold.

BTC/USD consolidating

After the recent spike due to positive fundamental news (approval of the Muslim community), Bitcoin has its momentum slowed down. It made an attempt over an 8230 Fibonacci retracement line of resistance, but failed and is now consolidating and going slightly downwards, with decreasing volume. The price range is currently between the 50 EMA and 100 EMA on the 1h time frame.

crypto consolidation

NEO/USD bouncing off the resistance line

As we have concluded in the last analysis, neo was in a tough spot, and the most likely thing that would happen to it was the bounce off the red resistance line (shown in the graph). That is exactly what happened to it. This is a big deciding point for NEO, as indicators are “fighting” for the range and the direction of the next movement. RSI just left overbought, volume is declining, and there is a major resistance on the upside, but there are also both EMAs as support, they crossed each other, signaling a bull trend. I am more inclined towards the bear side for a bit until all the indicators get in line.

NEO/USD bouncing off the resistance line

XRP/USD forming a triangle pattern

XRP has recently spiked, after the big announcement that regarded cooperation with Apple. When that happened, XRP spiked up and broke the $0.63 resistance line, which has now become support. It bounced off of it a couple of times, forming a perfect triangle pattern, with the expected breakout from the pattern around the 19th or 20th of April. It will most likely be an upwards move, but it can’t be said with certainty. EMAs and the support line form a “defense” against triangle patter break downwards, but ultimately, people will decide.

XRP/USD forming a triangle pattern

Final word

Markets are mostly consolidating since these are uncertain times fundamentally. Everyone is waiting for a catalyst, for a reason to re-enter the market. The next few days will determine the overall short-term trend of the market, so watch out for the swing trades for now. One thing is good, and that is the increasing volume in the general crypto market.

© Forex.Academy

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Is The USD Poised To Drop Further?

The US Dollar remains under selling pressure versus the other major currencies, even if the Federal Reserve has decided to increase the Federal Funds Rate again in March. The greenback posted some gains against its rivals in the last weeks, but I’m afraid that the rebound has ended because the USDX is showing some exhaustion signs in the short term.

The Dollar could drop again as the dollar index has failed to stay higher and to make new highs. USDX is trading at 89.77 level and looks undecided on the short term. It is moving sideways, but the bearish bias remains intact as the rate is located much below some very strong resistance level.

USD increased significantly only versus the Yen and versus the Swiss Franc in the last days and remains to see if the pairs will have enough energy to make new highs. The USD needs a strong support from the United States economic data in the upcoming period to be able to dominate the currency market again. This scenario is less likely to happen.

us dollar drop

I’ve added the USDX’s Daily chart to show you why the USD could drop again and what are the other perspectives. The index has found strong support at the 50% Fibonacci line (descending dotted line). It has made several false breakdowns below this dynamic support. The minor rebound was natural and expected.

The dollar index moves in a range in the short term. It remains to see if this will be an accumulation or a distribution movement. Price failed to reach and retest the 91.01 static resistance and the first downtrend line (DT1) signaling a selling pressure. It seems like that the USDX is developing a Falling Wedge pattern on the Daily chart, but I’m not very confident that the price could make a valid breakout at this moment.

The failure to approach and reach the median line (ML) of the major descending pitchfork could send the rate towards the 50% Fibonacci line again. A further US Dollar drop will force the greenback to lose more ground versus all its rivals.

us dollar forecast

I’ve added another chart to show you what happened in the last weeks. Technically, the USDX is somehow expected to drop after the failure to stabilize above the 50% Fibonacci line (ascending dotted line). You can notice that the rate has failed to reach this line in the last attempt and now is expected to reach the lower median line (lml) again.

A valid breakdown below the lower median line (lml) will confirm a further drop and a USD’s further depreciation. Only a rejection from the lower median line (lml) or a false breakdown will announce another upside momentum.

Conclusion

The USD’s future will be decided by the dollar index in the upcoming period. USDX is narrowing, so we should wait for a breakout from this range to see the direction. The USD wasn’t too impressed with the US Retail Sales data today. The indicator increased by 0.6%, beating the 0.4%, but the dollar stays lower as the USDX plunged in the last hours.

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Forex Market Analysis

Opposing forces drive the markets in the upcoming week

Weekly Update

Regarding fundamentals, we are expecting opposing forces drive the markets in the upcoming week. Volatility has sparked bearing in mind the recent intervention of the USA in Syria. However, stock futures are up, and oil is down on hopes Syria attack a one-off.

Thus, we’ll focus on the most foreseeable variables. There are three variables that are mainly moving the markets

  • Protectionism
    • A less negative pressure in the short term as fears erase
    • Recent formal declarations by Chinese president rise expectations of a friendlier trade
    • There are still two months until Trump takes in action any tariff measure
  • Technology
    • Recent testimony by Mark Zuckerberg leaves good feelings and calms the markets
    • Relieves pressure on technology companies
  • Quarterly results
    • 2018 benefits are revised downwards
    • However, 1st quarter is expected to be robust with strong corporate volumes and margins which will be positive in the short term
Macro Data

This week there is no major macroeconomic event that will affect considerably the markets.

On Monday we have American Retail Sales which are expected to increase to 0.4% from the last- 0.1%. This can benefit the US Dollar. On Tuesday, the German ZEW Economic Sentiment can have some impact on the Euro and DAX. It is expected to decrease to -0.8 from 5.1. Finally, on Thursday, the American Manufacturing Index is released, and it is expected to decrease around one point.

In general, the macro outlook is more pessimist than positive. However, the previous three variables provide a more positive outlook and provide a better understanding than the macroeconomics events on how the markets will act this week. So that, we could expect a stabilization phase in the markets after the recent volatility. In general, slightly more positive than negative.

 

 USD Index

Weekly Chart

 

In the weekly chart, it is possible to appreciate how the USD Index is not only below the 200 EMA but also broke below the weekly support that has been retesting in the recent weeks and which has not been successful so far. In the short term is facing a bearish trend line caused by its recent devaluation.

During the first half of this week, there are not big news. However, on Wednesday, American Inflation numbers come out. It is forecasted that the core CPI will increase to 2.1% from previous 1.8%. Furthermore, on Friday, Moody’s published its USA rating, which right now has the highest rating possible with stable perspective. Hence, recent controversial policies from the American government making protectionism and a trade war a reality can alter the expectations for the mention economic events. In case the forecast does not vary the USD should not be hurt. However, an unexpected increase in the Core CPI and a rating downgrade from Moody’s can really hurt the Dollar.

Daily Chart 

The daily chart is similar to the weekly chart. The retest cannot break above the recently broken support and is facing more bearish pressure ahead. Nevertheless, it just formed double bottom pattern followed by a short-term bullish trendline. This week will be critical to know whether the bearish support is strong enough or it holds on to the current bullish trend.

EURUSD

Daily Chart

Regarding the EURUSD, it has been flat since February. Last month it broke its monthly bullish trend, and the consequently retest it.  From there, it has remained flat with no major fluctuations. However, with the recent uncertainties facing both the Eurozone and the USA it will not be surprising to see the EURUSD leaning towards a side. For now, it is holding at a strong resistance that dates back to September of 2017.  It is facing a couple of support and resistance which will help to know towards what side it will lean and leave the rectangle it is in now.

USDJPY

Daily Chart

Moving into the USDJPY, it has just bounced from a monthly bullish trend after doing a fake breakout and consequently bouncing back. A bullish trend could be considered since there are not big resistances ahead part from the 200 EMA and the recent bearish monthly trend. In the short term, there are two resistances not very strong, but that may cause a small retracement. However, the monthly support is stronger than the resistance it is locked up between.

GBPUSD

Daily Chart

GBPUSD seems to have no limits. At the beginning of the year, the Pound broke an important bearish trendline holding to its current bullish trendline. Moreover, last week just broke another key resistance. With no more important resistance ahead it has a clear path to keep up with the current upward trend. Maybe it is possible to do small retest as we saw with the previous one.

Crude Oil

Daily Chart

Recent political events, like the recent issue of the missile attack against Syria, have created volatility in the markets and consequently, the price of oil has been on the rise. After holding to the trendline and breaking above $65 it is possible to see a retest of the recent resistances it just broke above. Without more resistances ahead, analyst set that next target is $70 per barrel.

DAX

Daily Chart

Regarding technical, it is within a bearish trend that can be prolonged as there is still uncertainty in terms of politics and the recent macroeconomics event have not been reaching the forecasted ones. However, an improvement in the economic sentiment and political stability can help the DAX to break the ahead resistance and enter a bullish trend, leaving the current flat to bearish trend it is involved in now.

As commented at the beginning, on Tuesday the German ZEW Economic Sentiment is released. Hence, it can major point to decide whether it breaks the recent resistance and follows the daily bearish trend.

© Forex.Academy

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

market overview for US index & pairs

News

No need to say that that the hour talk now is about hitting Syria by US, France, & Great Britain

Of course, there’s a lot of action going on as U.S. tells UN it’s ready to hit Assad again, if necessary.

Also U.S. Eyes Russia Sanctions for Syria, U.K. Sees One-Time Hit.

UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, speaking Sunday on CBS’s “Face the Nation,” said U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will announce new sanctions Monday that “go directly to any sort of companies that were dealing with equipment” related to Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad and his chemical weapons.

Oil prices, which already are above their three-year highs, may be about to jump further.

As Brent oil could spike to $80 a barrel if the U.S. and European Union reimpose sanctions on Iran, and as Western powers expand the scope of the Syrian civil war.

 

US Index

S&P500 behaviour has been intensively bearish on Daily frame, with a sideways movement during the last ten weeks.

There are perfectly well-noticed signs indicating that prices will be up active again.

Reversing from the support level at 88.35, bouncing from the uptrend’s  2018 low, and forming a double bottom, which is a reversal pattern, to give shape to a harmonic pattern (crab).

The price is facing a strong resistance test at the down trend lin from the high of May 2017, also with the red resistance zone (90.45-91.65).

If the price successfully breaks these levels, we can see it climbing up to its next zone (92.55-93.9). as it’s 61.8% & 78.6% Fibonacci, B harmonic level, and turn down from the high of 2017.

 EUR/USD

On 1H frame, we can see that the price broke the uptrend line provided by reversing from resistance zone (1.239-1.2425). The most important issue is that it approached the downtrend line traced from 2008 high.

The price draws a triangle that, if broken down, we can easily test the levels 1.23 then 1.226

 

 

GBP/USD

On 1H frame, the pair touched the resistance 1.428, with a megaphone pattern.

The price is expected to visit the 1.42 level to retest it. In case it breaks it, we can see it touching 1.415 and then 1.409

 

NZD/USD

The pair has faced its resistance level at 0.939 by breaking the uptrend line and rising reversal wedge. It’s supposed to retest the uptrend from the low of April at 0.732 then 0.727

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Forex Market Analysis

Volatility moves towards Europe

Hot Topics:

  • S. Core PPI (YoY) reaches the highest level since 2012.
  • Volatility moves towards Europe.
  • The pound rally continues due to the weakness of the dollar.
  • Jinping reduces risks of a Trade War.
  • Oil Brent reaches the highest level since 2014.

U.S. Core PPI (YoY) reaches the highest level since 2012.

The signs of strength in the economic growth of the United States continue, the Underlying Producer Price Index (YoY) reached 2.7% in the March period, the highest level since June 2012. The Core PPI (MoM) index, for its part, it reached 0.3% on the expectations of analysts who projected 0.2%. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 70% of the increase in final demand is attributed to a rise of 0.3% in the prices of final demand services, in the same way, transport and storage services for final demand increased by 0.6 %. The increases in the level of inflation for producers are expected to have an impact on the Consumer Price Index, which will be published this Thursday.

Despite these positive macroeconomic data, the greenback index continues its strong depreciation, which has lost 2.83% in the year. Today is closing with -0.25% of loses. We are paying attention to the zone between 89.15 and the 61.8% of Fibonacci retracement level, where the Index has found support.

Volatility moves towards Europe.

The risks of the Trade War between the United States and China are disappearing more and more with the bilateral attempts to resolve the conflict in a friendly way. However, in Europe, the scenario that seemed full of geopolitical stability is changing. This Sunday 08, Viktor Orban won the elections in Hungary for the fourth time in a row. With an utterly autocratic speech, the nationalist Prime Minister proposes an anti-immigrant policy and open attacks towards the European Union. Hungary refuses to comply with the agreed European migration policy, that is, accept quotas of Syrian refugees, in the same way as the United Kingdom raised in one of its arguments against Brexit. It should be added that Mr Orban is not alone in this political tendency; he has found allies in power in Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Italy. All of them are willing to reject the obligation to accept refugees and respect the right of free movement.

The euro has closed with gains for the third consecutive session with a 0.29% of advance. The pair shows a bullish move in the middle of a sideways formation. In the last trading session, the price has found resistance at 61.8% of Fibonacci retracement

The pound rally continues due to the weakness of the dollar.

The pound continues for the third consecutive session in a bullish rally advancing 0.64% in the week and has gained 0.35% in the last trading session. All this occurs in the context of the weakness of the dollar despite the excellent macroeconomic data of the United States. The level of support to be controlled is 1.4145; the key resistance level is 1.42 as a psychological level.

Jinping reduces risks of a Trade War.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has promised to reduce import tariffs by alleviating the fear generated by the escalation of bilateral tensions between the United States and China. In a speech held at the Boao Forum, President Jinping promised to open the Chinese economy further, protect the intellectual property of foreign companies. These words filled the market with optimism, leading the indexes to move positively, the Dow Jones Index advanced 1.48%, while the yen reduced its attractiveness as a refuge, leading the USD-JPY to close with 0.41% of earnings.

The USD-JPY pair is forming an ascending diagonal pattern, which still has space to follow a rally, the closest resistance levels are 107.49 and 108, and the support level to control is 106.64.

The Dow Jones index, which is within a descending channel, the price is for the control support level at 24,037.3 and is developing a possible upward diagonal formation whose closest resistance is at 24,630, a level that coincides with the Upper part of the bearish channel. Bullish positions are valued as long as they do not fall below the 23,749.3 level.

Oil Brent reaches the highest level since 2014.

The euphoria of the reduction of the economic tensions between the United States and China due to the sayings of Jinping, not only has motivated to the indices but also the oils. The Brent has reached its highest level since 2014, reaching the $ 71.03. Crude Oil, on the other hand, approached two-week highs reaching $ 65.76. The oil rally and the Dollar weakness also benefited to the pair USD-CAD (by inverse correlation) which closed at lowest levels since February testing the psychological level 1.26 approaching the level of Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at 1.2583.

Our central view for this highly correlated group has been bullish; but we currently prefer to maintain a neutral position considering that once the oils reach specific levels in the long term for their structures, they should make a significant corrective movement that will allow us to join to the trend. As long as Brent does not reach the area between $ 71.26 and $ 72.91, and Crude Oil does not come close to $ 69 and $ 70, we do not expect a start of a significative correction.

In the case of the USD-CAD pair, once it reaches the base of the channel, it is expected that a bullish move could begin.

©Forex.Academy

 

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Tit-for-tat weighs heavy on the markets

A difficult week
It has been another difficult week in the markets, and this has been primarily down to the difficulty in assessing what the trade standoff between the US

A difficult week
It has been another difficult week in the markets, and this has been primarily down to the difficulty in assessing what the trade standoff between the US

A difficult week

It has been another difficult week in the markets, and this has been primarily down to the difficulty in assessing what the trade standoff between the US and China mean for the markets. The week started off with the market taking fright as additional tariff threats were voiced by the US, leading to a sharp sell-off in equity markets. However, much of that rhetoric was rowed back on leading to a significant bounce back actually making pre-fright highs before the SP500 started to sell off again.  This simply means that there is no overriding directional bias in either direction making this market very choppy and difficult to trade.

 

Gold

As a result, the Gold market responded by initially strengthening due to the fear related to the equity story but then reversed those initial gains and now trades right in the middle of significant support and resistance levels which can be clearly seen from the chart below, these significant levels are $1,357 and $1,310, so all eyes will be on these levels over the coming days and weeks to see what is next for the yellow metal.

Oil

The Crude-Oil market responded to these major global developments by initially selling off but then after seeing a bit of erratic price action we continued to see a continuation to the down side, closing the week below the $62 level.  However, from a technical perspective, the situation regarding the crude oil market is an interesting one.  We can see from the chart below that we have been in a consistent up trend since mid-June 2017, reaching a high of $66 towards the end of Jan 2018.  Since this time, this market has clearly struggled to break the $66, creating a double top end of March.  So over the last two weeks, this market has bounced back to its lower trend line.  The next few days will be interesting to see whether the support level holds and we see another attack at the $66 level or will this support level break, and we see prices pushing down to a potential structural failure below the $60 level which would put major pressure on this market to the downside.  At this crucial point, it’s hard to see whether buyers or sellers will win out.

 

So just to recap, over the course of the last 5 trading days, US officials made very strong statements about the need for trade tariffs to be introduced only for US officials to then row back on some of its rhetoric, as a result, market nerves were calmed, and Monday’s fear related move was subsequently reversed. The S&P rallied and then retraced, and the gold and crude oil markets came off.

US Dollar

The USD, however, has been impacted by recent events but to a lesser degree. As you can see, from the chart below, the dollar index has been in a period of consolidation since mid-Jan.  These, unfortunately, for the time being, are the market conditions in which we are trading the USD. The two major prices to keep an eye out for over the coming days and weeks is the 99.880 to the up side and 88.416 to the down side.  A move in either direction would be significant for this market.

 

EURUSD

EURUSD continues to trade within a range. Today’s weaker NFP numbers perhaps suggest that the pair might move higher next week given the fact too that from a technical perspective, the pair is trading closer to the lower end of its range as can be seen from the chart below.

 

USDJPY

USDJPY has been firmer this week, however, watch the key pivotal resistance area next week around 108.20. This was the breach that confirmed a bearish range breakout back in February.

 

 

The US Dollar paired earlier gains during Friday’s London session after data showed the US economy adding new jobs at less than half the pace economists had expected for the March month. The important Non-Farm Payrolls figure grew by just 103,000 during the recent month, which is down from 313,000 in February and far below the economist consensus for a reading of 188,000.

Separately, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% for the month when markets had been looking for a 10-basis point fall to 4.0%. Household incomes grew by 0.3% during the recent month, which is up from the 0.1% seen in February and in line with the consensus forecast of economists.

 

Price action largely noted limited volume in the week leading up the non-farm payroll figure but saw initial volatile swings before the USD began to weaken over the course of Friday afternoon and evening.

Trade of the week – Long GBP/USD

With the US caught up with trade issues with China causing confusion among other countries and added uncertainty across the US Dollar Forex Pairs, perhaps the best technical trade may look GBP support with better than forecast UK economic data.

With the GBP showing strength over the USD in April for the last 13 consecutive years running, speculators are now looking at this trend for the best potential buying opportunity. With good news for the pound with UK PMI slightly higher than expectations, Friday trading is seeing the pound trade up with a touch and bounce from the greater bullish trendline of 2017. The discussion now seems to favour the pound is seemingly defying the expectations of Brexit doom.

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Business survey of the Bank of Canada is optimistic

 

 

Hot Topics:

  • Business survey of the Bank of Canada is optimistic.
  • How much could it cost to Facebook, the loss of users confidence?
  • Dollar Index the weakness remains..

Business survey of the Bank of Canada is optimistic.

The results shown by the survey of the Spring Business Outlook published yesterday by the Bank of Canada (BoC) reflects the confidence of the business sector, which is supported by good prospects for sales in most regions and sectors. Considering the credit conditions that remain intact, respondents continue to maintain their intentions in the increase of investments, however, expect a slight adjustment in conditions.

On the technical side, the loonie is within a bearish wedge formation. The price is testing 50% of the entire previous bullish cycle. Added to this, it has also reached and broken the psychological level of the 1.27, which is acting as support at this time. Our vision is that between the 50% and 61.8% zone, it should begin to develop a bullish movement up to the area of 1.29 – 1.30. In the short term, the dominant trend is bearish. Bullish positions are valued above 1.2745.

How much could it cost to Facebook the loss of users confidence?

The social network created by Mark Zuckerberg is still in the midst of criticism. The Facebook scandal that began with Cambridge Analytica, where it was revealed that the private data of 87 million users were sold and used with the aim of manipulating the decisions of the users and that it was later shown that the private data of the most of 2 billion users are vulnerable. It has led his CEO to have to testify in front of the United States Congress. Senator John Neely Kennedy mentioned that he agrees to regulate Facebook. Senator John Thrune, meanwhile, said that “the biggest question that Mark Zuckerberg should answer is what Facebook is responsible for what happens on its platform, how it will protect users’ data and how it intends to stop harmful behaviours instead of being forced proactively.”

The problems for the social network are not limited to the attempt to regulate their activity and control of the privacy of information, or to the campaign with the hashtag #DeleteFacebook that has been promoted since the scandal was announced. The price is developing a bearish corrective structure that is testing the long-term trend line. On the other hand, the stock has been below the 200-day exponential moving average, changing the market sentiment to bearish. Structurally, we expect the price to reach $ 149 and could fall between $ 129 to $ 121 as the target level. The closest resistances are $ 162 and $ 167, while the most relevant supports are $ 149 and $ 145.

Dollar Index the weakness remains.

The index of the green ticket continues in a lateral range, with a clear resistance in 90.3, which has not yet been overcome. The key control areas are 89.5 and 89.1, levels that could act as pivots in the medium term. Our long-term vision remains bearish with pending objectives in the area of 87.6 – 86.5.

©Forex.Academy

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

The Trade War could benefit South American Producers

DAILY UPDATE

Released: 5th April 2018.

Hot Topics:

  • The trade war could benefit South American producers.
  • The unemployment rate of European Union falls to 8.5%.
  • Climatic factor impacts on March PMI Construction.
  • The Bounce of the Stock Markets Boosts the Yen’s Crosses.
  • Indices rebound driven by possible bilateral talks between the United States and China.
  • The Canadian Dollar is showing an example of the alternation rule of the Elliott Wave theory.
  • Crude Oil Production falls to its lowest level in over a year.

The Trade War Could Benefit South American Producers.

Uncertainty due to the trade war between the United States and China continues. This time China has reacted by incorporating a 25% tariff on soybeans of US origin. It should be noted that China is the primary consumer of soybeans in the world. As a result of this increase in tariffs on American soy, it is estimated that China could turn to South American producers to meet the demand for the grain. Despite this pessimism in the economic context, the Dollar Index in the hourly chart is developing an inverted Head and Shoulder pattern as a bullish continuity configuration. The next control zone is in the range of 90.20 and 90.36, in case if we do not overcome the resistance of 90.36, we could see a potential retracement to the 89.15 area.

The Unemployment Rate of European Union Falls to 8.5%

The signs of recovery in the European economy continue. The unemployment rate of the European Union has fallen to 8.5% in February, down from 8.6% in January. According to the information provided by Eurostat, the labour market in the Eurozone has reached the lowest level since December 2008. This level of optimism has not been enough to push the Euro towards new highs. The single currency is within a range between 1.225 and 1.23, from where it could create a bottom around the levels 1.2213 and 1.224. A new bullish rally could start from here.

Climatic Factor Impacts on March PMI Construction.

The PMI of the Construction sector (MoM) plummeted sharply to 47 pts, compared to the 50.9 forecast, despite the weak data. It is the lowest level since July 2016, when it reached 45.9 pts in the context of the Brexit elections (June 23, 2016). The critical factor in the decrease in activity has been the climatic factor, remember that in March the worst snowfalls in recent years were recorded. Technically the pound is developing a pattern of Head-Shoulder, which could be contained in a more extensive setup of Head-Shoulders. This could lead to sterling up to 1.3922 in the first instance, and up to 1.3737 in the second instance. All this structure could correspond to a major degree lateral structure that takes us from the 1.373 area to reach new highs around 1.45.

The Bounce of the Stock Markets Boosts the Yen’s Crosses.

Yesterday, although tensions in the dispute of tariffs between the United States and China, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) disbursed 833 billion yen (about US $ 7.8 billion) in the purchase of Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). This level of expenditure is the highest level since September 2017, the month in which the BoJ spent 830 billion yen. This action earned the yen to start a turn in its trend; this can be seen both in the chart of the USD-JPY and EUR-JPY which have begun to show bullish patterns. For the USD-JPY pair, the closest key resistance level is 108; in the case of the EUR-JPY cross, the control level is 131.71, a level that if exceeded could lead to the price to exceed 133.5 with a maximum extension of 134.5 in the short term.

Indices Rebound Driven by Possible Bilateral Talks Between The United States and China.

Through his Twitter account, President Trump stressed that the United States is not in a trade war with China. The Trump administration indicated that it is willing to negotiate with China on the escalation of tensions between the two countries. The most significant problem as mentioned by the American President in his account on the social network is that the deficit in the American trade balance is $500 billion, which according to his words “When you’re already $500bn DOWN, you cannot lose.” With the fears of a commercial war between the Trump administration and the administration of Jinping, the indices began to recover confidence. They realised a V-turn pattern is taking the Dow Jones to close above the 24,000 pts in a day. It started lower in the global indexes. The level of resistance to control is between 24,800 pts and 24,982 pts, an area from where in case of breaking up, could take us to levels close to 26,000 pts. The key support levels are 24,034 and 23,330 pts, which coincide with the base of a bearish channel.

The Canadian Dollar is Showing an Example of the Alternation Rule of the Elliott Wave Theory.

The Loonie has made a false rut beginning a downward cycle. It is developing a long-term bullish channel as a long-term bearish formation and is reaching a zone of 1.31 and coinciding with the upper guideline of the channel. Once started, this bearish cycle has been developing five clear movements. In this case, we will highlight the corrective formations or consolidation. According to the Elliott Wave theory, the alternating rule states that after a simple corrective structure, a complex structure should be presented and vice versa. By looking at the time chart of the USD-CAD, we can see this application. The conclusion that this case leads us to is to suspect that a recession is approaching, and that could take the price to levels around the area of the complex corrective structure and then return to develop new minimums in the long term.

Crude Oil Production Falls to Its Lowest Level in Over a Year.

The production of crude oil from the countries belonging to OPEC has fallen to the lowest level in a year and a half. This is mainly due to the problems plagued by the policy of Venezuela, where production decreased by 100,000 barrels per day since February, reaching 1.51 million barrels per day according to the survey conducted by Bloomberg News. The overall level of the output of the 14 OPEC member countries fell by 170,000 barrels to 32.04 million barrels per day in March. OPEC has helped stop production as of January 2017 with the aim of boosting the price of oil, which has been currently consolidating above $60 a barrel. Structurally in the hourly chart, we observed a Head-Shoulder formation that did not reach the technical target bouncing upwards. As long as oil does not lose levels below $60.2, the dominant trend continues to be bullish.

©Forex.Academy

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

DAILY ABSTRACT – 15th February 2018

 
Hot Topics:

USD – CPI above the FED target increases the probability of a rate hike
EUR – Growth level of the Eurozone suggests that tapering could start soon

 
Hot Topics:

USD – CPI above the FED target increases the probability of a rate hike
EUR – Growth level of the Eurozone suggests that tapering could start soon

 

Hot Topics:

  • USD – CPI above the FED target increases the probability of a rate hike
  • EUR – Growth level of the Eurozone suggests that tapering could start soon

 

Main currencies daily performance.

USD – CPI above the FED target increases the probability of a rate hike.

In the session on Wednesday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI) were published, discounting energy and food components. The CPI (YoY) index as of January climbed to 2.1%, above the 1.9% expected by analysts. The current level shows a consolidation in the strength of the level of consumption in the US economy; in this context, the probability of raising the interest rate in the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) increases.

 

Technically, we observe the continuation of the corrective movement that could reach the area from 88.66 to 88.44, the area from which it could form a higher grade connector (or mother wave), and begin to bounce. At the moment we maintain the neutral position in this index.

US Dollar Index 1-hour chart ( click image to enlarge)

 

EUR – Growth level of the Eurozone suggests that tapering could start soon.

The last Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (YoY) of the Eurozone published by Eurostat, has reached 2.7% for the second consecutive month, giving signs of stabilisation in the level of economic strength. In the same way, this confidence in the robustness of the economy of the Eurozone gives us indications that the tapering of the policy of quantitative easing could begin to begin very soon.

 

The single currency is developing a bullish structure that could bring the price to 1.2488, from where it could make a corrective move to 1.24190. While the EURUSD pair does not lose the 1.2275, the primary trend is bullish.

EUR-USD 1-hour chart (Click image to enlarge)

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily Abstract – 6th February 2018

Hot Topics:

  • USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI helps to boost the Dollar.
  • DOW – Plunges more than 1,500 pts and erases 2018 gains. Are we starting a bearish market?

 

Main currencies daily performance.

USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI helps to boost the Dollar.

The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (MoM) was released today. It reaches 59.9 in January, the forecasted level was 56.5 according to a Reuters survey. The ISM release shows a continuation of expansion in the services sector for more than 90 months. This optimistic scenario in the services sector has helped the Dollar which has increased for the second consecutive day (0.64%) reaching the 89.550 level.

 

The Dollar Index has exceeded the maximum registered on the 30th of January, activating a Trader Vic 1-2-3 pattern, which could lead to a short-medium term objective to the level of weekly R3 (90,645).

US Dollar Index 30-min. chart ( click on the image to enlarge)

DOW – Plunges more than 1,500 pts and erases 2018 gains. Are we starting a bearish market?

The U.S. stock markets plunged in a high volatility session; Dow Jones fell 5.5% erasing the yearly gains losing 2.43%, S&P 500 looses 1.95% in 2018. The worst performance during 2018 is in the European markets, the FTSE 100 today has closed with loses of 3.73%, accumulating loses of 8.21% during 2018; in the same way, the DAX 30 also drops 3.23% in the first session of the week, registering losses of 5.69% in the year.

Making a bit of history during the month of October 1987, the so-called “Black Monday” occurred, where the American stock market plummeted more than 20%. The media began to transmit the feeling of panic due to the collapse of the stock markets. We invite the reader to observe and reflect on this movement of the market.

 

October 1987 Dow-30 daily chart ( click on the image to enlarge)

 

The market’s history tends to repeat the same pattern.

Feb 2018 Dow-30 daily chart ( click on the image to enlarge)

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

WEEKLY UPDATE from January 22 to 26, 2018

 

Weekly Update’s Hot Topics:

JPY – BOJ KEEPS THE MONETARY POLICY UNCHANGED, AND INFLATION CLOSE TO TARGET.
DOLLAR – DESPITE THE DEAL TO STOP THE SHUTDOWN THE GREENBACK HAS

 

Weekly Update’s Hot Topics:

JPY – BOJ KEEPS THE MONETARY POLICY UNCHANGED, AND INFLATION CLOSE TO TARGET.
DOLLAR – DESPITE THE DEAL TO STOP THE SHUTDOWN THE GREENBACK HAS

 

Weekly Update’s Hot Topics:

  • JPY – BOJ KEEPS THE MONETARY POLICY UNCHANGED, AND INFLATION CLOSE TO TARGET.
  • DOLLAR – DESPITE THE DEAL TO STOP THE SHUTDOWN THE GREENBACK HAS CONTINUED FALLING.
  • EUR – EURO EXCEEDS 1.25 HELPED BY DECLARATIONS OF DRAGHI.
  • AUD – EXPECTED VOLATILITY DUE TO INFLATION DATA RELEASE.

 

This week, the best performer was Crude Oil <USOil> with a rise of 4.48%. WTI has reached $66 (US)/Barrel, the highest level since December 2014. Despite the strikes deal between the Republican and Democrat US Senators to stop the Government shutdown, the Dollar <DOLLAR> cannot take a breath and continued falling 1.56% this week.

 

JPY – BOJ KEEPS THE MONETARY POLICY UNCHANGED, AND INFLATION CLOSE TO TARGET.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) decided to keep the monetary policy and the economic stimulus unchanged. Kuroda (The Bank of Japan governor) has signalled that the BoJ might be nearing the start of policy normalisation: but not so fast. The BoJ’s members voted 8-1 to keep its interest rates and asset purchases at current levels. Also, Kuroda said inflation expectations had stopped falling. The BoJ’s perspective is that the economy will grow 1.4% in the fiscal year starting in April, with an inflation of 1.4% over the same period.

The inflation data (YoY), excluding the food component, released this week has reached 0.9%. Kuroda, speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos has said that “there are some indicators that wages and some prices have started to rise”. Also added that “there are many factors that make reaching the 2% target difficult and time-consuming, but we are finally close”.

 

Technically, the USD-JPY is completing a sideways consolidation macro-structure. Our vision is, if we expect the price to fall to 108.16 to 107.18, the yen could find buyers again.

USD-JPY  Daily Chart ( click on the image to enlarge)

DOLLAR – DESPITE THE DEAL TO STOP THE SHUTDOWN THE GREENBACK HAS CONTINUED FALLING.

This week the Republicans Senators have struck a deal with the Democrats to temporally stop the US Government shutdown which lasted for three days, the first shutdown since 2013. In this agreement, Democrats have accepted to vote for the bill while they will continue negotiating immigration legislation for “dreamers” (children that migrate illegally to the US). This agreement has as a deadline February 8.

The week has ended with the US GDP (QoQ) data release. The US economic growth is at 2.6%, that is lower than the expected 3% in the fourth quarter. Although the fourth-quarter GDP has been slowed, in 2017 the economic growth has gained momentum from the 0.9% reported in March 2017.

 

Technically, the US Dollar Index has broken down in the past week to the 88.9 level. Our vision for the next week is a limited downward turn to the 87.85 to 87.1 area, and then for it to make a potential reversal pattern to reach 91.03 level.

US Dollar Index Daily Chart ( click on the image to enlarge)

 

EUR – EURO EXCEEDS 1.25 HELPED BY DECLARATIONS OF DRAGHI.

This Thursday the common currency has raised to over 1.25, the highest level since December 2014. In the last Monetary Policy Decision ECB Conference, President Mario Draghi has maintained the accommodative policy and the interest rates will remain well beyond the end of the QE.

Regarding forex risk, Draghi signalled that “now, we have downside risks relating primarily to geopolitical and especially foreign exchange markets. But by and large, the risks to growth are balanced.”

On the technical side, once the Euro reached the weekly Fibonacci level F(38.2), it has started to make a corrective move leading the pair to the 1.24235 level. Our central vision is that the Euro could start a new bearish cycle, where our first target is 1.16845.

 

EUR-USD  Daily Chart ( click on the image to enlarge)

AUD – EXPECTED VOLATILITY DUE TO INFLATION DATA RELEASE.

In the last week of the month in the Oceanic Session, the volatility expected will come from the Inflation (QoQ) data release. The analysts expect that the CPI (QoQ) will be 0.8% and (YoY) 2.0%. Under this context, the RBA (Reserve bank of Australia) could hike the Interest Rate in the next Monetary Policy Meeting scheduled on February 6.

As has been forecasted previously, our primary vision remains bullish for the Aussie, where the long-term target is 0.8433 level from where the price could find sellers to begin to develop a major degree connector.

AUD-USD  Daily Chart ( click on the image to enlarge)

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Weekly Forecast w/c 22nd January 2018

Weekly forecast’s Hot Topics:

  • DOLLAR – US GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN STILL WITHOUT A DEAL.
  • EUR – WHAT TONE WOULD DRAGHI TAKE IN THE NEXT ECB MONETARY POLICY DECISION?
  • GBP – COULD IT BE MAKING A TERMINAL PATTERN?

Weekly Performance

The past week, the best performer was the Aussie with an advance of 1.18% supported mainly by the stronger employment change data released on Thursday 18th, where it was forecasted 9K and the change reported was 34.7K. The worst performer was the Loonie which fell -0.33% after the BoC decision that kept the interest rate at a 1.25%.

 

DOLLAR – US GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN STILL WITHOUT A DEAL.

This week the US agenda will be driven by the Government shutdown and the deal expectation that the Republican Senate could achieve with Democrats. On the economic side, the main macroeconomic events will be from the housing market, in both Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales, a moderated decrease is expected.

Technically, the US Dollar Index is in a range between 89.99 and 90.8. RSI is showing bullish divergence signals. The price could make a new low to the 89.6 area before it starts a new bullish cycle.

EUR – WHAT TONE WOULD DRAGHI TAKE IN THE NEXT ECB MONETARY POLICY DECISION?

This Thursday 25th, the market volatility will be led by the Mario Draghi tone in the ECB Monetary Policy Decision Conference. Investors are expecting answers to the following questions: When will the first interest rate hike be? When will the QE end? What is his opinion about the strength of the Euro and the inflation level due to the climb in oil prices? Also, the market is expecting news about his successor in the ECB Presidency.

On the technical side, in the short term, the price remains bullish. Our vision is a limited appreciation of the common currency to 1.239 area for then start a new bearish cycle that could reach the 1.15 area.

 

GBP – COULD IT BE MAKING A TERMINAL PATTERN?

The Sterling has a gaining momentum as it approaches 1.40 level. In this area, we find the 2nd weekly resistance level (1.406); our vision is that in this area the pound could find resistance and start a corrective structure in the first instance to 1.384, and the second instance to 1.373 level.

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily Abstract 22nd January 2018

Daily Abstract’s Hot Topics:

USD – THE US GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN ENDS AS SENATE MAKES A DEAL.
EUR – PRESIDENT MACRON TO BBC: FREXIT IS COMING?
JPY – ANALYSTS DON’T EXPECT

Daily Abstract’s Hot Topics:

USD – THE US GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN ENDS AS SENATE MAKES A DEAL.
EUR – PRESIDENT MACRON TO BBC: FREXIT IS COMING?
JPY – ANALYSTS DON’T EXPECT

Daily Abstract’s Hot Topics:

  • USD – THE US GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN ENDS AS SENATE MAKES A DEAL.
  • EUR – PRESIDENT MACRON TO BBC: FREXIT IS COMING?
  • JPY – ANALYSTS DON’T EXPECT CHANGES IN THE MONETARY POLICY.

 

Main currencies daily performance.

USD – THE US GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN ENDS AS SENATE MAKES A DEAL.

The US government shutdown ends after the Senate Republicans and Democrats voted to approve a temporary funding bill. Democrats have accepted to vote for the bill while they will continue negotiating immigration legislation for “dreamers.” The agreement has until the 8th February deadline.

 

The Buck today has moved in a range expecting an agreement between Republicans and Democrats. The bias remains bearish.

EUR – PRESIDENT MACRON TO BBC: FREXIT IS COMING?

The French President Emmanuel Macron said to BBC that he would have “probably” voted to leave the EU if offered the choice in a referendum. This is not the first time that President Macron has spoken about the Frexit idea, on the 1st of May 2017, in the presidential campaign, he said that “we have to reform this Europe” or “we will have a Frexit.”

Despite the President Macron’s declarations, the Euro is still moving in a range between 1.221 and 1.227; probably the common currency is expecting for more volatility that could be helped by the German ZEW Economic Sentiment data release.

 

JPY – ANALYSTS DON’T EXPECT CHANGES IN THE MONETARY POLICY.

The BoJ (Bank of Japan) will release its statement on today’s Monetary Policy Meeting. The analysts do not expect changes on monetary easing despite recent signs of economic recovery, and the inflation target is below the BoJ target (0.6% real vs 2% target). Probably the Governor Haruhiko Kuroda could give signs of the reduction in the quantitative easing and the interest rate hike in the long-term.

 

Technically, the pair USDJPY is in a sideways structure. Our vision is that there will be a probability of a bearish continuation before a spike to 111 level for starting a downward cycle.

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Hot Topics – December 18 to 21, 2017

Hot Topics:

  • US DOLLAR – THE BEARISH BIAS DUE TO TAX REFORM CONTINUES.
  • GBP-USD – BREXIT NEGOTIATIONS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH DRIVES STERLING.

This past week presented significant advances for the New Zealand dollar with a 2.25% advance, due mainly to the weak inflation data (YoY) shown by the American economy (1.7% vs. 1.8% expected). The increase of the interest rate by the FOMC was not enough to reverse the advance of the Kiwi.

The worst performance of the week was exhibited by the British Pound with a -0.41% loss. The BoE decided to keep the interest rate at 0.5% in the context of an increase in unemployment for a second consecutive month, reaching 4.3%. On the other hand, inflation (YoY) scored a 3.1% advance, the highest level for almost six years; specialists believe that CPI is reaching a peak and that it could mainly impact the cost of the services sector.

 

 US DOLLAR – THE BEARISH BIAS DUE TO TAX REFORM CONTINUES

Dollar begins a bearish week in the context of uncertainty over the approval of tax revision legislation with the aim of making American companies more competitive.

The Republican Senator Bob Corker has expressed concern about the fiscal deficit that can result from the tax cuts. Despite having a position in favour of the tax review, doubts remain in the approval of the reform, in the same way that the Senate rejected the Trump Administration’s proposal to suppress Obamacare last July.

The Greenback has broken the bullish guidance that has reached S3; there is a possibility that it will develop a bullish reversal movement up to the weekly pivot level. You can find more information in our article Finding Trade Opportunities Using Pivot Points.

 

GBP-USD – BREXIT NEGOTIATIONS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH DRIVES STERLING.

Economic growth and negotiations for Brexit continue to be the primary drivers of the Sterling. On Wednesday, the governor of the BoE will address the Parliament in the context of the hearing of the Select Committee of the Treasury on the November Financial Stability Report.

The British Prime Minister, Theresa May, has assured the Parliament that she is looking for the Brexit transition to be completed within two years. The first phase of the Brexit negotiations has been on the rights of EU citizens in Britain. EU members have agreed to move to the second stage, which focuses on the transition and future commercial relations. The British Parliament has urged May to stand firm in the interests of the United Kingdom, such as a previous Prime Minister, Margaret Thatcher.

Technically, the Pound is developing a corrective structure, with a bias for bullish continuation. The RSI shows a bullish divergence; however, we expect a retracement towards the weekly pivot zone and then continue with the bullish movement in the medium-long term.

 EUR-USD – CORRECTIVE STRUCTURE IN DEVELOPMENT

The single currency is developing a corrective structure; the RSI has not yet shown evidence of rupture. We expect the price to make a bearish movement in five; that means, the euro could move up to R1 and then fall to S2, thus completing a five-wave sequence.

 

 USD-CAD – LOONIE CONTINUES IN A SIDEWAYS RANGE MOVEMENT.

The Loonie continues in a sideways range formation, waiting for data to act as a catalyst. Most probably, the previous movement will continue to R2 (1.30 level). The RSI is forming a triangular structure that is finding resistance at level 60. The bullish bias still prevails, with the average of 9 periods under the RSI.

 

 NZD-USD – A PENNANT THAT COULD BE A PAUSE OF A NEW RALLY.

Last week, the Kiwi was the best currency performer with a 2.25% increase against the USD. This week it is developing a pennant pattern, manifesting a pause with further continuity of the bullish movement. The RSI, on the other hand, is forming a corrective structure. We expect a false move towards the weekly pivot, and then, continuing the upward cycle to the zone of R2 (0.715).

 

 

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Outlook for 10.24.2017

EUR/USD
The US Dollar is hesitant as President D. Trump told reporters he is very close to a decision about who should chair the Federal Reserve, which includes current Fed

EUR/USD
The US Dollar is hesitant as President D. Trump told reporters he is very close to a decision about who should chair the Federal Reserve, which includes current Fed

EUR/USD

The US Dollar is hesitant as President D. Trump told reporters he is very close to a decision about who should chair the Federal Reserve, which includes current Fed Chair, Janet Yellen. It also weighs on the US currency the rumors about Trump’s plan to reform taxes.

On the Euro front, European Central Bank is expected to announce on Thursday a possible timetable for a reduction of its asset purchases, as economic data suggest the Eurozone might witness a higher than expected economic expansion in 2017. Reducing asset purchases might, likely, be accompanied with a continuation of low interest rated, as Eurozone inflation data seems to be stable

Sideways channel movement on the EUR/USD pair

The Euro 1-hour price has been trending down since Oct, 19 when it draws an almost perfect triple top (1). Yesterday it touched Oct, 18th lows and bounced from there, and piercing up the downward trendline

Overall, the EUR/USD pair seems to trade in a sideways channel, but its current price may allow for a profitable trade, with a target touching the upper trend line (fig.1).

GBP/USD

JP Morgan analysts are convinced that shorting the GBP is still the way to go

The GBP is, still, affected by the Brexit process, but no major news about it is expected today. Slower consumer expending and softening of economic sentiment press policymakers to keep interest rates unchanged, which weighs on the British currency.

Daniel Hui, a foreign exchange strategist at J.P. Morgan said that their conviction to short the GBP is still high because they felt UK rate hikes were “overpriced”, given the “weak starting point for UK growth” and the reality of a Brexit shock that keeps dominating the medium-term outlook.

There is evidence that today’s lows might be the start of a new up-leg that may carry GBP/USD prices up to, at least, the highs of this lateral channel

GBP/USD daily price is experiencing a sideways movement, after retracing more 70% of its upward movement from its lows in August 2017

Possible scenarios:

  1. Today’s lows (1.31653) might be the start of a new up-leg that may carry GBP/USD prices up to, at least, the highs of this lateral channel (1.32272), provided that prices cross over the downward trend line.
  2. If the price does not continue up and reverse near the BB mean, then the downward leg is continuing to its next floor, at 1.31, and a good reward to risk trade is possible at about 1.3177.

USD/JPY

Japan was in focus yesterday, as prime minister, Shinzo Abe is back in power

Japan was in focus yesterday, as prime minister, Shinzo Abe is back in power, after his victory this weekend, that drove the yen downward yesterday. Today, we see a bounce that set prices to test the highs of yesterday’s session. Tuesday, the Japanese currency, instead of focusing on Japan’s manufacturing PMI, slightly lower in October, it seems to pay more attention to interest rate differentials.

Mid-term, the USD/JPY is trading on a lateral price channel whose low is at about 107.7 and it’s high is at 114.34. Currently, the price, trading at 113.71, is moving closer to the top of that channel.

A short-term bottom at (1) in sync with the MACD signal crossover, marks the start of a new uptrend. The red 10-period BB is sloping strongly up, so prices are heading for a test of the recent highs at (3), and, potentially break them up.

The best possible action here is to scalp on a short timeframe, such as 15 min charts or shorter, being aware that we are at the highs of a mid-term channel. Long and short-swing trades must wait for a clear signal or news event

USD/CHF

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is keeping an expansive monetary policy that drives Swiss CHF down

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) considers the CHF to be over-valued, so it is keeping an expansive monetary policy that is driving the Swiss currency down. The SNB policy of negative interest rates contributes to the downward currency trend.

To sum up, the Swiss economy is slowing down, its growth rate (+0.3%) is losing track compared to the one registered in the Eurozone (+2.3%) in the second 2017 quarter.

USD/CHF is at overbought but still strongly moving up

The USD/CHF weekly is on a sideways channel with a lower limit at 0.942, and an upper limit at 1.0365. Its current price – 0.9896- is at about the middle of this channel. On a daily and weekly basis, the price is in overbought territory.

Today the USD/CHF is trading strongly up, and its hourly chart is currently at overbought territory as well, with its price touching the 3rth Bollinger band (+3STD) (1). On such a strong trend, the best thing to do is wait for a price pullback to create a short-term support near the mean of the Bollinger bands (2) and set a long trade there.

AUD/USD

Tomorrow, Australia’s quarterly inflation data will be released.

The Aussie is under pressure as the soft Chinese housing data was weaker than expected. China is a major partner for Australia, and China’s economic health shakes Australian currency for the good and the bad. The Housing Price Index grew in China by 6.3%, after an 8.3% increase in August. Next Wednesday, Australia will release its quarterly inflation figures.

AUD/USD is currently in a downtrend

The AUD/CAD pair, on a weekly chart, is moving on a downward leg, in a sideways channel that started in Jan 2015. The channel has a slight upward bias.

On the daily chart, the AUD/USD pair is down-trending after drawing a double top (July and September 2017). Actually, the price is below the -1 Bollinger Band showing that the downtrend is still in place

The most probable scenario for the AUD/USD pair is to go down to at least 0.766, or, even deeper, to touch the lower weekly trend line (0.7518). The MACD crossover to the downside confirms the bearish bias of this currency pair

USD/CAD

USD continues to show strength against the Canadian currency. Tomorrow’s interest rate decision by the Bank of Canada will bring a confirmation (or denial) to the strong uptrend od this currency pair. The odds of a new rate hike are getting lower, after weak economic data ahead of the BoC meeting.

Canada Wholesale sales rose by just 0.5% in line with forecasts, although, it seems the market expected a bit more increment.

USD/CAD moving up with strength
The USD/CAD pair, on a weekly chart, is in the middle of a retracing trend, starting at the beginning of September, which has retraced 35% of the length of the downward move. Its daily chart shows the currency pair approaching the ceiling of a potential wide and sideways price channel. The other notable fact being, a price breakout through 1.25953, starting a new impulsive leg up.

NZD/USD

NZ Government to reform RBNZ process to set rates.

The Kiwi dollar is under pressure since the government announced its plans to reform the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. NZ Labor-led coalition said it will modernize the bank’s process for rate-setting and adapt it into a format that was more “growth-friendly”. Giving hints about expansionist monetary policy. Analysts say the RBNZ reform is already well priced by the market, and have downplayed its impact on interest rate expectations.

NZD/USD is currently at the bottom of a down-trending channel

On a daily chart, the NZD/USD pair is trending down on a channel that started on July, 27. Actually, the price is oversold, well below the -2 Bollinger Band. The price is near a mid-term support, so it’s in the process of bottoming out, as is clearly seen in its hourly chart.

A possible scenario for the next few hours is a retracement from here to test resistance points at about 0.695. If it stalls without breaking 0.6908, and MACD turns bearish the retracement is failing, and the downtrend might resume testing the lows made in May 2017.