Monthly and Weekly charts essential for determining an intraday bias. In order to identify a bias, a thorough analysis must be done using as little analysis as possible. Simple is better when it comes to a long-term forecast (forecasting over a series of weeks or months).
Monthly Chart
This is an extremely bearish candlestick on the daily chart, a firm inverted hammer with excellent selling conditions on the Composite Index.
Weekly Chart
The weekly chart also shows some significant bearish sentiment ahead. Price is very near a pivot in time (red vertical line). More importantly, the 1326.24 value area is a natural middle harmonic, and XAUUSD has failed to trade above it on the current weekly chart. Additionally, the wedge that XAUUSD has been trading is becoming weak: the current price level in relation to both the Composite Index and the Composite Index and the RSI indicates a very high probability of that bottom wedge line being breached.
Near-term target: 1282.68 value area.
Long-term target of a return to the 1239.13 value area.
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