Tag: Fundamental Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, August 28 – Bitcoin Bearish as XRP Plummets

Post author By Ilija Rankovic
Post date 28 August, 2020
1 Comment on Daily Crypto Review, August 28 – Bitcoin Bearish as XRP Plummets

The crypto market was mostly bearish over the course of the day, with XRP losing the most out of the top cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin is currently trading for $11,341, which represents a decrease of 0.5% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum lost 0.44% on the day, while XRP lost 5%.

Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

When taking a look at top100 cryptocurrencies, Numeraire gained 29.44% on the day, making it the most prominent daily gainer. Serum (23.05%) and Uma (21.68%) also did great. On the other hand, Aragon lost 17.67%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by Kusama’s loss of 12.20% and Qtum’s drop of 11.12%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s dominance level has gone up quite a bit from when our previous report, with its value currently at 61.06%. This value represents a 0.71% difference to the upside when compared to our last report.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The cryptocurrency market cap has decreased slightly over the course of the day. Its current value is $353.48 billion, which represents a decrease of $6.8 billion when compared to our previous report.

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What happened in the past 24 hours?

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin was extremely volatile in the past 24 hours, with its price ranging from $11,110 to $11,600. The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization is still below the $11,460 resistance level and seems like its preparing a move (most likely to the downside).

The price of Bitcoin has declined by more than 6% in the last three days and that along with the fact that $700 million Bitcoin futures expiry is approaching, traders are nervous and have a bearish scenario in mind. Many technical analysts believe that Bitcoin has two paths ahead at the moment: $16,000 or $9,600.

Traders should take a look at Bitcoin’s movement around $11,460 before trading.

BTC/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical factors:

Price is below its 50-period EMA and 21-period EMA
Price is below its middle band
RSI is neutral but leaning towards oversold (41.82)
Volume is average (one-candle spike)

Key levels to the upside Key levels to the downside

1: $11,460 1: $11,090

2: $11,630 2: $10,855

3: $12,015 3: $10,500

Ethereum

The second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization continued its path above the descending trend line. While being above this line is a positive thing, Ethereum is still losing value as it’s gripping the line and following it down. If ETH decides to test the upside, it will encounter some turbulence way before its major resistance at $415.

If, however, Ethereum pushes towards the downside, it will fall back into the trend and possibly rush towards the bottom trend line.

Ethereum traders should look for Ethereum’s volume spike and push towards the upside.

ETH/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical Factors:

Price is currently below its 21-period and 50-period EMA
Price is slightly below the middle band
RSI is neutral (45.39)
Volume is very low (With volume spike when the trend line was retested)

Key levels to the upside Key levels to the downside

1: $415 1: $400

2: $445 2: $360

3: $496 3: $340

Ripple

XRP had an incredibly bad day, as bears took over the market and pushed its price down. The third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap dropped under the $0.266 support, and then immediately tried to head back up (without any success). While the price is still near the $0.266 level, it is unlikely that XRP will confidently move above it unless Bitcoin pulls the whole crypto market up by a sudden move to the upside.

XRP traders should look for how the cryptocurrency reacts to the $0.266 level and trade-off of that info.

XRP/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical factors:

The price is below its 21-period and 50-period EMA
Price is slightly above its lower band
RSI is at the oversold line (30.19)
Volume is unstable and cycling between average (low) and extremely high volume candles

Key levels to the upside Key levels to the downside

1: $0.285 1: $0.266

2: $0.31 2: $0.2454

3: $0.32 3:$0.235

Tags bitcoin, BTC, Crypto, Crypto Trading, cryptocurrency, Daily Brief, ETH, Ethereum, Fundamental Analysis, Ripple, Technical Analysis, trading, XRP

Forex Fundamental Analysis

Impact of ‘Employment Rate’ Economic Indicator On The Forex Market

Post author By Reddy Shyam Shankar
Post date 27 August, 2020
No Comments on Impact of ‘Employment Rate’ Economic Indicator On The Forex Market

Introduction

Employment is crucial for consumer spending, which makes more than two-thirds of the GDP for many countries. Understanding the employment rate and the cascading effect it has on the economy is paramount for fundamental analysis. The factors affecting the employment rate and business cycle patterns all inherently impact economic growth and currency valuation. Hence, understanding employment as an economic indicator will strengthen our analysis.

What is Employment Rate?

Employment Rate: It is defined as the ratio of employed to the total available labour force. Here the labour force is defined as the sum of employed and unemployed persons. It is also considered as a measure of the extent to which the labour force is being used.

Unemployment is a state where an individual is actively searching for employment but cannot find work.

Unemployment Rate: It is defined as the percentage of unemployed people to the available labour force. It is the other half of the employment rate. Employment and unemployment rate combined should yield results as 100% as it equals the total available labour force.

How can the Employment Rate numbers be used for analysis?

Employment and unemployment can be considered as the two sides of the same coin. We can derive our fundamental conclusions from either direction. Employment Rate is essential for our analysis because it has a direct and cascading impact on consumer spending. In the US, consumer spending accounts for about 70% of the total GDP.

A high employment rate indicates that more people in the labour force have income that they can spend on purchasing goods and services. When consumer spending is on the rise, businesses flourish, leading to better wages, or even more employment. Overall, employment in one sector has an indirect positive effect on dependent sectors and a direct positive effect on the economy.

The Government is also politically committed to ensuring a low unemployment rate; otherwise, citizens will not favour them in the next elections. By providing proper support to local businesses, the Government can increase employment in the short run.

A high unemployment rate is very damaging to the economy. As more people are unemployed, there is a direct negative effect on consumer spending. In this scenario, also the cascading effect works and makes the situation worse. It also hurts the employed people.

Increased unemployment in the economy can bring down the employed morale, making them feel guilty for being employed while their colleagues are unemployed. It can also make employed people feel less secured and discourage their spending habits, and they may end up saving for a rainy day. Employed people may feel lucky enough to have a job that inhibits them from applying for better opportunities amid high unemployment.

Employment and Unemployment rates can also help investors to keep a pulse on the health of the economy. Overall it is essential to make sure the employment rate is always high and does not take a dip. Even when the unemployment rate rises linearly, it has an exponential impact on economic growth, and hence the central authorities try to avoid it at all times.

It is also essential to understand that employment rates are sensitive to business cycles in the short run. Hence, seasonally adjusted versions of the same are more useful for analysis. In the long run, the employment rates are significantly affected by government policies on higher education and income support. Policies that focus on the employment of women and disadvantaged groups also help increase the employment rate.

Both developing and underdeveloped countries’ governments have to focus on education policies and employment opportunities for their labour force if economic growth is the primary concern. Literacy and higher education in underdeveloped and developing nations have helped the economies grow stronger year-on-year.

Employment rates are coincident indicators and can also be used to predict or confirm oncoming recessionary or recovery periods, if any. The onset of a recession is accompanied by a massive unemployment rate or decreased employment rates. Hence, despite the propaganda of the media and Government, we can use employment data actually to confirm whether the economy is growing or stagnating. Accordingly, during recovery periods, employment rates start on a recovery trajectory back to its previous normal.

Impact on Currency

As an increase in employment rate points towards a growing economy, a high employment rate is good for the GDP and the currency. Hence, the employment rate is a proportional coincident indicator. An increase or decrease in employment rate is suggestive of improving or deteriorating the economy, respectively.

The forex market watches the unemployment rate more closely than the employment rate itself. Significant changes in the employment rate or the unemployment rate tend to have a considerable impact on market volatility. Still, generally employment rate in itself is a low impact indicator compared to the unemployment rate.

Employment change, initial jobless claims also precede unemployment rates, and the desired effects are already factored into the market before the employment rates are released. Hence, overall it is a low impact indicator.

Economic Reports

In the United States, the BLS surveys and tracks monthly employment and unemployment within the country. It classifies them based on geography, sex, race, industry, etc. The Employment Situation report is also published by the BLS, and it goes as far back as the 1940s. It is released by BLS on the first Friday at 8:30 AM Eastern Standard Time every month.

Sources of Employment Rate

The US BLS publishes monthly employment and unemployment reports on its official website. We can also find the same indexes and statistics of various categories on the St. Louis FRED. We can also find employment rate statistics published by the OECD countries here. Consolidated reports of employment rates of most countries can also be found in Trading Economics.

How Employment Rate News Release Affects The Price Charts

As we have already established, an increase or decrease in the employment rate can be used to gauge whether the economy is performing well or poorly. For forex traders, it is therefore imperative to understand how the news release of this macroeconomic indicator will impact the price action on various currency pairs.

In the US, employment reports are released monthly, usually on the first Friday after the month ends. The latest, expected, and all historical figures are published on the Forex Factory website. We can find the most recent release here. Below is a screengrab of the US unemployment rate from the Forex Factory website. On the right, we can see a legend that indicates the level of impact the Fundamental Indicator has on the corresponding currency.

As shown, the unemployment rate is a high impact indicator. The snapshot below shows the change in the US unemployment rate as released on August 7, 2020, at 1230GMT. For July 2020, the unemployment rate declined from 11.1% to 10.2%, beating the 10.5% decline forecasted by analysts.

Now, let’s see how this news release made an impact on the Forex price charts.

EUR/USD: Before Employment Data Release August 7, 2020, Just Before 1230GMT

The 30-minute EUR/USD chart above shows the market is on a downtrend from 0200 to 1200 GMT with the candles forming below the 20-period Moving Average. More so, the market was trading within a narrow price channel of between 1.1850 and 1.1810, indicating a calm market with traders waiting for the latest employment data to gauge the economic recovery.

EUR/USD: After Employment Data Release August 7, 2020, 1230GMT

As can be shown on the chart above, immediately after the news release, we can observe a sudden downward spike with a retraction. This spike indicates the market is having mixed reactions to the positive employment news hence the strong USD.

After the initial spike, the market can be seen to ‘absorb’ the positive news. The pair adopted a bearish outlook with the price breaking and staying below the earlier observed 1.1810 resistance level.

Since the pair had not shown any unexpected sudden swings before and after the new release, trading the news would have been profitable. For such a high impact economic indicator, it is advisable to open positions after the news release to avoid being caught on the losing end of the trend.

Now, let’s quickly see how this new release has impacted some of the other major Forex currency pairs.

GBP/USD: Before Employment Data Release August 7, 2020, Just Before 1230GMT

GBP/USD: After Employment Data Release August 7, 2020, 1230GMT

The GBP/USD pair showed a similar trend as the one observed with EUR/USD. The pair can be seen to have traded within a narrow price channel of 1.3122 and 1.3071 from 0700 to 1200 GMT. After the economic data release, the pair similarly had a sudden spike. It later adopted the same bullish stand as the EUR/USD pair, with price breaking and trading below the observed resistance level.

AUD/USD: Before Employment Data Release August 7, 2020, Just Before 1230GMT

GBP/USD: After Employment Data Release August 7, 2020, 1230GMT

Similar to the EUR/USD and the GBP/USD pairs, the AUD/USD traded within a price channel of 0.7221 and 0.7196 and no unexpected spikes before the news release. After the news release, a sudden spike can be observed with an accompanying retraction, and later the pair adopted a bullish stance breaking below the observed resistance level.

From the above analysis, the subdued market volatility before the release of the employment data and the subsequent volatility, it is evident that the employment rate is high impact indicator anticipated by forex traders.

Tags Economic Indicators, Education, Employment Rate, Forex, Forex Fundamental Analysis, Forex Trading, Fundamental Analysis, fundamentals, trading, Unemployment Rate

Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, August 27 – $700 Million of Bitcoin Options Expiring on Friday: Prepare for Volatility

Post author By Ilija Rankovic
Post date 27 August, 2020
1 Comment on Daily Crypto Review, August 27 – $700 Million of Bitcoin Options Expiring on Friday: Prepare for Volatility

The crypto market was split between cryptos that ended up in the green and in the red, with a bit more cryptocurrencies ending up gaining in the past 24 hours. Bitcoin is currently trading for $11,374, which represents an increase of 0.14% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum gained 0.77% on the day, while XRP lost 0.36%.

Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

When taking a look at top100 cryptocurrencies, Celo gained 56.49% on the day, making it the most prominent daily gainer. Aragon (36.44%) and Siacoin (17.45%) also did great. On the other hand, The Midas Touch lost 20.75%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by Kusama’s loss of 8.81% and Reserve Rights’ drop of 8.72%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s dominance level has stayed at the same place as we reported yesterday, with its value currently at 60.35%. This value represents a 0.01% difference to the upside when compared to our last report.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The cryptocurrency market cap has increased significantly over the course of the day. Its current value is $360.28 billion, which represents an increase of $24.61 billion when compared to our previous report.

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What happened in the past 24 hours?

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

Bitcoin has had somewhat a slow day after bottoming out near $11,090. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap tried to break the $11,460 resistance level at one point, but it ended up unsuccessfully. Bitcoin will need to gather quite a strong bullish presence if it wants to reach $12,000 anytime soon, as the upside is guarded by way too many smaller and bigger resistance levels.

With $700 million of Bitcoin options expiring on Friday, we may see a nice spike in volume and volatility. Various analysts predict that the price at its current position would be a good buying opportunity for futures traders, while a price near $12,000 would be a good sell opportunity.

Traders should take a look at Bitcoin’s movement around $11,460.

BTC/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical factors:

Price is below its 50-period EMA and 21-period EMA
Price is between its lower and middle band
RSI is neutral but leaning towards oversold (41.02)
Volume is average

Key levels to the upside Key levels to the downside

1: $11,460 1: $11,090

2: $11,630 2: $10,855

3: $12,015 3: $10,500

Ethereum

While it did not do much better than Bitcoin in terms of daily gains, Ethereum had a decent day. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap gathered a small bullish force to push through the descending trend. Not only did Ethereum push past it, but it also confirmed its position above it. With that being said, Ethereum needs a significant volume spike if it wants to reach past $400, or go any higher than that.

However, with DeFi booming and gathering interest from traders (and even creating new ones), Ethereum might be on the right track to show its true bullish nature in the mid-term.

Ethereum traders should look for Ethereum’s volume spikes and trade-off of that.

ETH/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical Factors:

Price is currently below its 21-period and 50-period EMA
Price is between its lower and middle band
RSI is neutral (44.63)
Volume is very low

Key levels to the upside Key levels to the downside

1: $415 1: $400

2: $445 2: $360

3: $496 3: $340

Ripple

XRP was the only cryptocurrency in the red in the past 24 hours out of the top3 cryptocurrencies by market cap. After bottoming out near $0.266 and recovering to around $0.28, XRP started dropping slightly again, reaching the current price of $0.275. The low volume and candles with small bodies and small wicks show almost no volatility in trading.

XRP traders should look for a volume spike before even considering a trade.

XRP/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical factors:

Price is below its 21-period and 50-period EMA
Price is between its lower and middle band
RSI stable and leaning towards the oversold area (38.69)
Volume is below average and stable

Key levels to the upside Key levels to the downside

1: $0.285 1: $0.266

2: $0.31 2: $0.2454

3: $0.32 3:$0.235

Tags bitcoin, BTC, Crypto, Crypto Trading, cryptocurrency, Daily Brief, ETH, Ethereum, Fundamental Analysis, Ripple, Technical Analysis, trading, XRP

Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, August 27 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – U.S. Fed Chair Powell Speaks!

Post author By Ali B.
Post date 27 August, 2020
1 Comment on Daily F.X. Analysis, August 27 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – U.S. Fed Chair Powell Speaks!

On the fundamental side, the eyes will remain on the U.S. Prelim GDP, Unemployment rate, and Fed Chair Powell Speaks, which is due during the U.S. session. U.S. economy is once again expected to report a massive dip in the U.S. GDP data. At the same time, the Jobless Claims may improve a bit. Overall, the Fed Chair Powell Speaks will be the main highlight of the day as it may determine further sentiment about the U.S. dollar depending upon the dovish or hawkish tone of Powell.

Economic Events to Watch Today

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.18300 after placing a high of 1.18391 and a low of 1.17720. Overall the movement of the EUR/USD pair remained flat yet slightly bearish throughout the day. The Euro to U.S. Dollar exchange rate remained flat throughout the day and dropped in late Wednesday. The EUR/USD pair lost some of its previous daily gains earned on the back of stronger than expected German GDP data for the second quarter of this year.

The President at IFO Institute, Clemens Fuest, said that the German economy was on track to recovery as the German companies assessed their current business situation markedly more positively than last month. He said that the manufacturing sector’s business climate had improved considerably; however, many manufacturers still consider their current business to be poor.

Whereas, the resurgence of coronavirus pandemic in Europe increased the concerns for another wave of the Eurozone outbreak. Spain has recorded 80,000 new coronavirus cases over the last two weeks; the rate was by far the most in Western Europe. Germany reported 1576 new cases on Wednesday and increased the total count to 236,429.

The travel warning for countries outside Europe has been extended to September 14, as announced by the German Foreign Ministry on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Health Minister Jens Spahn has said that coronavirus testing’s capacity was limited in the country. In France, the Government warned that a second wave could hit the country as early as November. Furthermore, the E.U. trade commissioner Phil Hogan resigned after the Irish Government accused him of breaching COVID-19 guidelines. He attended a golf dinner with more than 80 people in a County Galway on August 19 and was criticized for not complying with quarantine rules while traveling.

Mr. Hogan denied breaking any law and said that he should have been more rigorous concerning the COVID-19 guidelines. These virus-related concerns kept weighing on the local currency Euro and kept the pair EUR/USD under pressure throughout the day.

On the U.S. front, the U.S. dollar was low on the day ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech scheduled for Thursday. The speech is expected to be dovish and provide fresh clues about the delayed U.S. next stimulus package and is weighing on the market sentiment.

However, the U.S. macroeconomic data remained supportive of the U.S. dollar as the Core Durable Goods Orders rose to 2.4% in July from the projected 1.9% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Durable Goods Orders also raised to 11.2% from the anticipated 4.4% and supported the U.S. dollar. The U.S. data added further pressure on EUR/USD pair, and the pair moved in a downward direction in the late American session after moving sideways throughout the day.

Daily Technical Levels

Support	Pivot	Resistance
1.1787	1.1814	1.1856
1.1744		1.1884
1.1717		1.1926

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is trading sideways, holding below a double top resistance area of 1.1849 level. On the downside, the EUR/USD is likely to find support at 1.1804, while a bearish breakout of 1.1804 level can trigger selling until 1.1775 level. In case of a bullish breakout, the EUR/USD pair may trigger further buying trends until 1.1879 and 1.1945 levels.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair managed to gain some positive traction and drew some modest bids near above 1.3200 level on the day mainly due to the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, triggered by the cautious sentiment ahead of U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s speech. Apart from this, the lack of progress over the much-awaited U.S. fiscal stimulus also weighed on the safe-haven U.S. dollar and contributed to the currency pair gains.

On the contrary, the downbeat report from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) and negative remarks by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) also exerted some downside pressure o the currency pair. On the other hand, the cancelation of the negotiations over the U.K. and the European Union’s post-Brexit relationship also becomes the key factor that kept the lid on any additional gain in the currency pair. At this particular time, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3207 and consolidating in the range between 1.3195 – 1.3223.

As per the CBI report, the companies reliant on spending by consumers – many of which only opened in recent weeks after the lockdown – cut jobs faster on record. However, these comments initially weighed on the currency pair. In the meantime, the OECD noted the British economy’s record quarterly fall as worrisome. In turn, this undermined the sentiment around the British Pound and contributed to the currency pair modest losses.

Also weighed on the quote was the reports that the E.U. representatives have dropped the discussions over the U.K. and the European Union’s post-Brexit relationship as a subject for the next week’s meeting. However, these gloomy headlines overshadowed the previous day’s positive comments from the Irish leader Michael Martin.

The fresh challenges to the US-China relations exerted further downside pressure on the market trading sentiment across the pond. It is worth reporting that the Trump administration considers imposing sanctions on those companies helping China mark its presence in the South China Sea. This happens after the dragon nation fired missiles in the drills around the debatable region.

At the USD front, the broad-based U.S. dollar was down on Thursday morning in Asia ahead of U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium later. Whereas, the losses in the U.S. dollar become the key factor that kept the GBP/USD currency pair higher. Whereas, the U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies dropped by 0.12% to 92.882 by 11:59 PM ET (4:59 AM GMT).

Looking forward, the market traders await the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech in the Jackson Hole Symposium. As well as, America’s preliminary readings of the second quarter (Q2) GDP, which is expected -32.5% versus -32.9% will be key to watch. In the meantime, the updates surrounding the fresh Sino-US tussle, this time over the South China Sea, and the coronavirus (COVID-19) updates, could not lose their importance.

Daily Technical Levels

Support	Pivot	Resistance
1.3144	1.3182	1.3247
1.3079		1.3285
1.3040		1.3351

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD has distrub[ted the narrow trading range of 1.3140 – 1.3056, and upward breakout of GBP/USD is expected to lead the Cable prices further higher until 1.3262 mark. On the upper side, the GBP/USD pair may face the next resistance around 1.3262 mark and above this 1.3295. Technically, 50 periods of EMA, RSI, and MACD all are suggesting a bullish trends in the GBP/USD pair. Let’s look for buying trades above 1.3146 level.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY was closed at 105.985 after placing a high of 106.554 and a low of 105.954. After posting gains for three consecutive days, USD/JPY pair declined on Wednesday amid the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Thursday.

The traders were selling USD/JPY pair over the rising hopes that a next stimulus package was on its way. As in result, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell by 0.1% against its rival currencies and weighed further on the U.S. dollar that dragged the currency pair on the low side.

The Chairman of Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, will deliver a speech via video conference at Jackson Hole Symposium on the next day and provide an annual central bank’s monetary policy framework review.

Investors believe that the speech will make a strong case about the monetary stimulus, so they are awaiting it to find fresh clues about how the Fed will support the economy further through the coronavirus pandemic crisis.

Another reason behind waiting for the Fed’s Chair Powell’s speech is to determine whether Fed will favor shifting from a long-run inflation target of 2% to an average level of inflation as it will raise inflation and will make the U.S. dollar weak before raised interest rates.

The U.S. dollar was lower on the day ahead of the next stimulus measure as Powell’s dovish expectations increased. If Powell’s speech provided the expected clues, then the U.S. dollar will fell even more and weighed on USD/JPY to move it below 104 level.

Whereas, on the data front, at 04:50 GMT, the SPPI for the year from Japan rose to 1.2% from the expected 0.8% and supported Japanese Yen and added losses in currency pair. From the U.S. side, the Core Durable Orders for July rose to 2.4% from the expected 1.9% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Durable Goods Orders for July also rose to 11.2% from the estimated 4.4% and supported the U.S. dollar. The strong U.S. dollar capped additional losses in the USD/JPY on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, the additional losses in currency pair were supported by the rising tensions between the U.S. & China. On Wednesday, 24 Chinese companies were penalized by the Trump Administration due to their contribution to China’s controversial island-building campaign.

The U.S. banned Chinese companies from buying the U.S. products citing their role in helping the Chinese military construct artificial islands in the disputed South China Sea. The U.S. had already penalized dozens of Chinese companies over national security concerns and violations of human rights, and now China’s encroachment in the South China Sea has also added in it. Now it is remained to see the response of China over this penalty by the U.S. The ongoing tensions between the U.S. & China added strength in Japanese Yen that further supported the USD/JPY pair’s bearish trend on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, the risk sentiment that took its pace yesterday on the back of renewed hopes on the vaccine was faded away after the latest warning from the top U.S. virus expert Dr. Anthony Fauci. He said that before the vaccine’s approval for safety and efficiency, the usage of vaccines could be harmful. He warned that it could affect the development of other vaccines.

President Donald Trump had considered plans to put out a vaccine before it was tested and approved to increase his re-election chances in upcoming November’s presidential elections. Democrats have blamed Trump for endangering American lives for political gain. It has also weighed on risk sentiment and added in the currency pairs losses on Wednesday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support	Pivot	Resistance
105.7600	106.1600	106.3700
105.5500		106.7700
105.1500		106.9800

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is consolidating in an upward channel, which is supporting the pair at 105.820. On the upper side, the USD/JPY is likely to gain an immediate resistance around 106.566 as well as 107.078. Looking at

the 2-hour chart, the 50 periods EMA is extending resistance at 106.069. Simultaneously, the MACD and RSI are holding in a selling zone, below 50 and 0, respectively. The USD/JPY may trade bullish over 105.850 to target 107.084 and selling below 105.829. Good luck!

Tags EUR-USD, Forex, Forex Trading, Fundamental Analysis, GBP-USD, GBPUSD, Support and Resistance, Technical Analysis, Technical Outlook, Trade Setup, trading, USD-JPY

Forex Fundamental Analysis

Everything About Deposit Interest Rate as a Macro Economic Indicator

Post author By Reddy Shyam Shankar
Post date 26 August, 2020
No Comments on Everything About Deposit Interest Rate as a Macro Economic Indicator

Introduction

Deposit Interest Rates play a crucial role in controlling the flow of money within the economy and the international market. The interest rate differentials have always directed the flow of speculative money in and out of countries, thereby affecting the currency exchange rates. Hence, it is crucial to understand Deposit rates as an economic factor in the FOREX industry.

What is Deposit Interest Rate?

Deposit Interest Rate: It is the money financial institutions pay the depositing party. The deposit account holders put some money in the bank for which the bank pays out interest. Deposit accounts can be a savings account, Certificates of Deposit (CD), and self-directed deposit retirement accounts.

Banks give loans to its customers at a higher rate than the interest they pay out on their deposit accounts. It is this spread between the lending rate and deposit rate that banks make their profit and is called Net Interest Margin.

How can the Deposit Interest Rate numbers be used for analysis?

Potentially, banks are free to set their deposit rates at whatever rate they desire, but they have to keep competition and business into account. Deposits provide financial institutions with the necessary liquidity to maintain business and give out more loans. Banks need to give out loans to make a profit, but also needs to have depositors to provide the required liquidity. Within the country, when the deposit interest rates are low, people would be more interested in investing their money in stocks or other money markets where there is a possibility of a higher return on their capital.

Conversely, banks may increase their deposit rates to attract investors to deposit their capital providing banks with the necessary liquidity to fund their loans. Investors see bank deposits as a safe bet against the risky stock or money markets where they are subjected to a potential loss. Customers are also encouraged to save more and spend less when they get a higher return on their deposits. In the international markets, investors check and compare the lending and deposit rates of major banks in different countries. When the deposit rate of a bank in one country is higher than the lending rate of a bank in another country, there is a chance of making money.

Investors, traders, or some institutions may borrow money from a low-interest rate country and deposit in another country where the rates are high. This difference in the lending and deposit rates amongst banks of different countries is called Interest Rate Differential or ‘Carry.’ For example, let us assume when the deposit rate in Australia is 5%, and the lending rate in the United States is 3.5%. The difference of 1.5% return will move the speculative or “hot” money out of the United States and into Australia. When the Australian Dollars start to flow into the country, the global FOREX market is deprived of the AUD currency, and, hence, it is appreciated.

The below plot also shows the historical difference between the interest rates differential (AUS IR – USA IR) and the AUD USD exchange rate. As we can see, whenever the difference between the interest rates rises in favour of AUD, the exchange rate tends to follow. There is a good correlation between both in the long run. Whenever the direction changes in favour of the United States, so does the exchange rate.

Hence, the “carry” essentially directs the flow of “hot” money in and out of countries whenever there is an increase in interest rates differentials. The larger the difference and consistent the direction of the differential in the plot (positive or negative) more will be the inflow of money in that direction.

When the differential is near or close to zero, then the speculative money may be forced into other options to generate revenue. The interest rate differential may be prominent when paired against small and developing countries to that of developed countries in general. As most of the developed economies are struggling to maintain their growth and have been forced to keep interest rates low, it indeed is a little tricky to find currency pairs to generate a significant carry.

Impact on Currency

Deposit rates have a definite impact on the currency markets. It is one half of the money flow equation. When the lending rates and deposit rates are checked and compared, money flow starts in favour of the higher deposit rate country that appreciates the currency value and vice-versa.

Therefore, deposit rates alone do not determine currency value fluctuations. But in general, it is safe to say that higher deposit rates tend to appreciate currency’s value as the market is deprived of that currency. Conversely, low-interest rates on deposits discourage saving and thereby go into spending, which contributes to inflation and currency depreciation.

Economic Reports

The deposit interest rates of local banks can be found on the respective banks from which we would want to borrow money. But in general, the deposit rates and lending rates due to market forces are subject to be close to the country’s Central Bank’s target rate.

For the United States, it is the Fed Funds target rate, and the actual rate is called the effective Fed Funds rate. The Federal Reserve publishes Monday to Friday the daily Interest Rates in its H.15 report at 4:15 PM on its official website. Weekly, Monthly, Semi-annual and Annual rates of the same are also available.

Sources of Deposit Interest Rate

The United States Fed Rates are available here. The monthly effective Fed Funds rates are available in a more consolidated and illustrative way for our analysis in the St. Louis FRED website. Consolidated Deposit Interest Rates of different countries are available here.

How Deposit Interest Rate Affects Price Charts

For forex traders, monitoring other economic indicators is usually meant to help them predict what interest rates are going to be in the future. However, since the deposit interest rates largely depend on the federal funds rate, they rarely have any significant impact on the forex markets by itself. It is worth noting that the US FOMC only meets eight times in a year to determine the federal funds’ target rate. This explains the lack of impact by the deposit interest rate.

In the US, the Fed Funds target rate, on which deposit interest rates are based on, are published every weekday at 4.15 PM ET. Below is a screengrab of the Fed Funds target rate from August 11 to August 17, 2020.

As can be seen, the rate has remained the same at 0.1%. The screenshot below is from Forex Factory, showing that the latest FOMC decision recommended that the Fed Funds target rate remains between 0% and 0.25%.

Now that we’ve established the impact that the deposit interest rate has on the economy and the currency valuation let’s see how it impacts the price action of some select currency pairs.

EUR/USD: Before Effective Fed Funds Rate Release August 17, 
2020, Just Before 4.15 PM ET

The 15-minute EUR/USD chart above shows that the market between 10.15 AM and 4 PM ET on August 17, 2020, had no specific trend. The market has adopted an almost neutral stance with the candles forming just around the flattening 20-period Moving Average.

EUR/USD: After Effective Fed Funds Rate Release August 17, 
2020, 4.15 PM ET

As can be seen on the chart above, immediately after the daily update on the Effective Fed Funds rate, there is a slightly bullish 5-minute candle forms. The news, however, is not significant enough to the market to cause any spikes or change the prevailing market trend. As can be seen, the pair continued with its neutral trend and a flattening 20-period Moving Average.

Let’s see how this new release has impacted some of the other major Forex currency pairs.

GBP/USD: Before Effective Fed Funds Rate Release August 17,
2020, Just Before 4.15 PM ET

The neutral trend observed with the EUR/USD pair before the daily release of the Effective Fed Funds Rate can be seen on the GBP/USD chart above. The candles formed just around the flattening 20-period Moving Average.

GBP/USD: After Effective Fed Funds Rate Release August 17, 
2020, 4.15 PM ET

After the news release, a 15-minute bullish candle forms. However, the same neutral trends persist with the pair indicating that the news was not significant enough to move the markets and cause a change in the trend.

AUD/USD: Before Effective Fed Funds Rate Release August 17, 
2020, Just Before 4.15 PM ET

AUD/USD: After Effective Fed Funds Rate Release August 17,
2020, 4.15 PM ET

Unlike with the EUR/USD and the GBP/USD pairs, the AUD/USD pair had a clear uptrend before the daily release of the Effective Fed Funds Rate. This uptrend was not a steady one since the candles formed just above an almost flattening 20-period Moving Average. After the news release, a bullish 15-minute candle is formed. The news was, however, not significant enough to alter the prevailing market trend.

While the deposit interest rate is vital in determining the flow of money in an economy, it plays an almost insignificant role in moving the forex markets. Cheers.

Tags Deposit Interest Rate, Economic Indicators, Education, Forex, Forex Fundamental Analysis, Fundamental Analysis, Fundamental Trading, Macro Economics, News Release, trading

Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, August 26 – Bitcoin in a Downtrend; Altcoins Following Bitcoin

Post author By Ilija Rankovic
Post date 26 August, 2020
1 Comment on Daily Crypto Review, August 26 – Bitcoin in a Downtrend; Altcoins Following Bitcoin

Almost every single cryptocurrency in the top100 ended up in the red today, as Bitcoin fell below $11,630. Bitcoin is currently trading for $11,334, which represents a decrease of 2.34% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum lost 3.84% on the day, while XRP lost 2.57%.

Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

When taking a look at top100 cryptocurrencies, Kusama gained 35.49% on the day, making it the most prominent daily gainer. Aragon (18.33%) and The Reserve Rights (14.61%) also did great. On the other hand, Flexacoin lost 12.17%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by Ocean Protocol’s loss of 10.15% and Verge’s drop of 9.60%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s dominance level has increased slightly, with its value currently at 60.34%. This value represents a 0.3% difference to the upside when compared to our last report.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The cryptocurrency market cap decreased significantly over the course of the day. Its current value is $335.82 billion, which represents a decrease of $33.15 billion when compared to our previous report.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

Bitcoin has experienced yet another price drop in the past 24 hours. As we mentioned in our previous article, the largest cryptocurrency by market cap was preparing a move to either side and that the direction of the move will decide BTC’s faith in the short-term. As we can see, Bitcoin decided to go towards the downside and quickly dropped below its $11,630 and $11,460 support levels. It got stopped, however, by both the $11,090 and the descending trend line, which Bitcoin created ten days ago.

Traders should take a look at how Bitcoin resolves its current position and trade after they get more info.

BTC/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical factors:

Price is below its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
Price is at its lower band
RSI bounced off of the oversold line (32.84)
Volume has increased

Key levels to the upside Key levels to the downside

1: $11,460 1: $11,090

2: $11,630 2: $10,855

3: $12,015 3: $10,505

Ethereum

Ethereum also had a bad day, with bears dominating its price movements. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap has, over the course of the day, dropped back into the descending trend it just briefly escaped the day before. Ethereum’s position within the descending trend was confirmed after a small price spike couldn’t get past the trend’s upper level.

Ethereum traders should look for how ETH handles being in the level, and how it exits it.

ETH/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical Factors:

Price is currently below its 21-period and its 50-period EMA
Price is at its lower band
RSI is leaning towards oversold (37.87)
Volume is normal (but the past 24h saw a surge in volume at one point)

Key levels to the upside Key levels to the downside

1: $415 1: $400

2: $445 2: $361

3: $496 3: $340

Ripple

XRP suffered from the same fate as BTC and ETH, with bears taking over the market and its price dropping in the past 24 hours. The third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap fell below $0.285 after not being able to properly confirm its position above it, and almost reached the $0.266 support in the process. XRP is now stabilizing at around $0.275 with low volume and volatility.

XRP traders should look for how the cryptocurrency reacts when it reaches its immediate support/resistance levels.

XRP/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical factors:

Price is below its 21-period and its 50-period EMA
Price is slightly above its lower band
RSI stable, but leaning towards the oversold area (38.10)
Volume is below average and stable (except a two-candle spike during the price drop)

Key levels to the upside Key levels to the downside

1: $0.285 1: $0.266

2: $0.31 2: $0.2454

3: $0.32 3:$0.235

Tags bitcoin, BTC, Crypto, Crypto Trading, cryptocurrency, Daily Brief, ETH, Ethereum, Fundamental Analysis, Ripple, Technical Analysis, trading, XRP

Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, August 26 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Durable Goods Orders In Highlights!

Post author By Ali B.
Post date 26 August, 2020
1 Comment on Daily F.X. Analysis, August 26 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Durable Goods Orders In Highlights!

On the news front, the eyes will remain on the U.S. fundamentals, especially the Durable Goods Orders m/m and Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, which are expected to report negative data and may drive selling bias for the U.S. .dollar.

Economic Events to Watch Today

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD closed at 1.18336 after placing a high of 1.18435 and a low of 1.17840. Overall the movement of the EUR/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. The EUR/USD pair gained traction and raised on Tuesday after falling for two consecutive days. The rise in the EUR/USD pair was due to improved risk appetite in the market after the U.S. & China both held the trade talks and confirmed their commitment to trade deal.

Meanwhile, the potential vaccine for coronavirus and the distribution of vaccine doses to worldwide raised optimism and helped risk sentiment that also added further in the gains of riskier asset EUR/USD pair.

The U.S. & China said they were making progress in trade talks despite other tensions, which added further in the optimism. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced that a constructive dialogue between both sides had pushed the trade deal forward.

As in result, the U.S. Treasury yields rose but failed to raise the U.S. dollar as the disappointing release of the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence depressed the U.S. dollar. At 19:00 GMT, the highlighted C.B. Consumer Confidence data fell in August to 84.8 from the anticipated 93.0 and weighed heavily on the U.S. dollar that added gains in the EUR/USD pair.

On the other hand, from the European side, the German Final GDP for the second quarter contracted less than it was expected and supported Euro currency. The forecasted GDP was -10.1% but, in actuality, came in as -9.7% and supported the single currency. The German Ifo Business Climate Index in August exceeded the expectations of 92.2 and came in as 92.6 and supported Euro currency that further added gains in the EUR/USD pair.

Furthermore, the risk sentiment was also supported by the positive news regarding the vaccine and its distribution from the World Health Organization. Investors cheered the COVAX facility initiative that would allow the worldwide equal distribution of vaccine doses in collaboration with the vaccine manufacturers.

WHO said that 172 countries were engaged in talks to participate in the COVAX facility, and nine vaccine candidates have already joined it while nine were under evaluation. It also added that significant producers were under discussion to join the facility. The worldwide equal and fair distribution of vaccines will help recover the economy and bounce back from the pandemic. This raised risk sentiment and pushed the EUR/USD riskier asset in the upward direction on Tuesday. Apart from this, the investors will be watching the speech of Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday at Jackson Hole Symposium to find fresh clues about the U.S. dollar.

Daily Technical Levels

Support	Pivot	Resistance
1.1795	1.1820	1.1857
1.1758		1.1882
1.1733		1.1919

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is trading with a bearish bias amid stronger U.S. dollar at 1.1810, holding right above the triple bottom support area of 1.1804 level. Closing of candles above this level can drive bullish correction until 1.1840, while the violation of the 1.1804 level can trigger selling unto 1.1785 level. On the 2 hour chart, the EUR/USD pair has formed an ascending triangle pattern, which also extends resistance at 1.1847. Let’s wait for a bullish or a bearish breakout before placing any major trade in the EUR/USD.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD closed at 1.31505 after placing a high of 1.31703 and a low of 1.30539. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. After falling for two consecutive days, GBP/USD pair surged and posted gains and recovered almost more than half of the previous two day’s losses on Tuesday amid the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness.

The U.S. dollar was weak as the Consumer Confidence from August declined, and the safe-haven status of greenback suffered because of risk-on market sentiment. The risk appetite increased after the U.S. & China confirmed their commitment towards the phase-one trade deal on Tuesday. Despite ongoing tensions, both sides assured to comply with their promises made in the phase-one trade deal agreement and released some tension from the market.

This raised risk appetite and the risk-sensitive GBP/USD pair gained from this situation. Meanwhile, the potential vaccine development and its distribution in the whole world to fight the pandemic also raised risk sentiment and added in the pair gains.

Whereas on Brexit front, the top Tory and former Brexit Secretary David Davis warned that it was a critical endgame, and the U.K. will soon have to be preparing for talks to collapse. As both sides have earmarked October as a deadline, and the last three weeks will matter more than the first three years of talks.

He added that if Europe continued to follow Barnier’s strategy, then we could end up with a no-deal scenario, and the Europeans will lose a large and very profitable marketplace, namely the United Kingdom. They will lose the most efficient financial market; they will lose access to British fisheries and funding that was agreed under the Withdrawal Agreement. The funding was agreed on the presumption that both sides would get a trade deal, a political promise that the E.U. has failed to keep.

The U.K.’s negotiator David Frost had provided a draft text last week to speed up the talks, but E.U. negotiator Micheal Barnier dismissed it as unrealistic and urged E.U. states to stay cold-blooded. Barnier said that U.K.’s strategy would be to trade fishing access for freedom from E.U. rules at the last minute.

Meanwhile, at an informal meeting, the colleague of Mr. Barnier, Eurasia Group analyst, Mujtaba Rahman, said that the trade-off concerning state aid and fishing rights as possible, but it will take time. He claimed that the prospect of no-deal with the risk of delay at the border and food shortages would be a huge concern for Boris Johnson and his government, pushing him to compromise.

Both sides are reluctant to lose their demands and the time is falling short, it is now unclear whether they would reach an agreement. However, investors are cheering the other risk-related news and ignoring the Brexit progress as it has stalled.

On the data front, at 15:00 GMT, the CBI Realized Sales from Britain declined to -6 from the expected 7 in August and weighed heavily on the local currency that kept the currency pair gains limited. From the U.S., the Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board was declined to 84.8 from the projected 93.0 and the previous 91.7 and weighed heavily on the U.S. dollar as this report was highlighted on Tuesday. The weak U.S. dollar added further in the GBP/USD pair’s gains.

Daily Technical Levels

Support	Pivot	Resistance
1.3079	1.3125	1.3196
1.3008		1.3242
1.2962		1.3313

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD has violated the sideways trading range of 1.3120 – 1.3056 level, and bullish breakout of GBP/USD pair is likely to lead the Sterling prices towards the next target 1.3262 level. On the higher side, the next resistance is likely to be found around 1.3262 level. The 50 EMA and the technical indicators such as RSI, MACD, and 50 periods of EMA suggest a bullish bias in the Cable. Let’s consider taking buying trades above 1.3120 level.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 106.387 after placing a high of 106.575 and a low of 105.870. Overall the movement of the USD/JPY pair remained bullish throughout the day. The USD/JPY pair climbed to a fresh weekly high on Tuesday at 106.57 despite the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness. The rise in currency pair could be attributed to the risk-on market sentiment that weighed on safe-haven Japanese Yen and contributed to the currency pair’s gains.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) was down on Tuesday by 0.33% on 92.98 level, but it could not stop USD/JPY pair to post gains on the day as the risk-on market environment made it difficult for safe-haven Japanese Yen to find demand in the market.

On the data front, at 10:00 GMT, the core Consumer Price Index for the year from Bank of Japan dropped to 0.0% in August from the anticipated 0.1% and weighed on Japanese Yen and added further in USD/JPY pair’s gains.

On the U.S. side, the Housing Price Index rose to 0.9% in June from the anticipated o.3% and supported the U.S. dollar. At 18:59 GMT, the Richmond Manufacturing Index also rose to 18 points from 10 in the forecast and supported the U.S. dollar. At 19:00 GMT, the C.B. Consumer Confidence declined to 84.8 from the projected 93.0 and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The New Home Sales increased to 901K from the expected 787K and supported the U.S. dollar.

Most of the economic data from the U.S. came in favor of the U.S. dollar on Tuesday and helped USD/JPY gain traction. Meanwhile, the improving market risk sentiment played an important role in increasing the USD/JPY currency pair prices. The risk appetite was raised in the market after the WHO released an initiative of equal and fair distribution of vaccine to countries worldwide along with the positive statement from both the U.S. & China about the trade deal.

According to the World Health Organization, 172 countries and multiple candidate vaccines were involved in talks to make the global access of vaccines easy and fair by participating in the COVAX facility. COVAX facility is an initiative to provide safe & effective vaccines after getting license and approval to countries around the world by working with vaccine manufacturers. For now, nine candidate vaccines have entered the initiative, and further nine are under evaluation while the major producers are under conversation to join the COVAX facility.

This raised hopes for the equal and easy distribution of vaccine doses not only in a few major countries but to each country worldwide. The fact that it will help recovery boosts the equity market, and hence, safe-haven Japanese Yen came under heavy selling pressure and raised USD/JPY pair.

Meanwhile, the video conference that was canceled by President Donald Trump on August 15 was held on Tuesday between U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He. Both sides reaffirmed their commitment toward the phase-one trade deal even China has been lagging of the target of purchasing U.S. farm goods.

However, in the lingering US-china tensions, a positive statement from both sides gave a heavy selling pressure on safe-haven appeal and raised the risk sentiment helping USD/JPY pair to extend its daily gains.

Daily Technical Levels

Support	Pivot	Resistance
105.9500	106.2700	106.6800
105.5500		106.9900
105.2300		107.4000

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading within an upward channel, which is supporting the pair at 106.230. On the higher side, the USD/JPY may find an immediate resistance at 106.566 and 107.078. On the 2 hour chart, the 50 periods EMA is extending the buying trend in the USD/JPY pair. At the same time, the MACD and RSI are contradicting as the MACD suggests selling while the RSI is holding in a buying zone. The USD/JPY may trade bullish over 106.200 to target 107.084. Good luck!

Tags EURUSD, Forex, Forex Trading, Fundamental Analysis, GBP-USD, Support and Resistance, Technical Analysis, Technical Outlook, Trade Setup, trading, USDJPY

Forex Fundamental Analysis

Impact of ‘Bankruptcies’ News Release On The Forex Assets

Post author By Reddy Shyam Shankar
Post date 25 August, 2020
No Comments on Impact of ‘Bankruptcies’ News Release On The Forex Assets

Introduction

A bankruptcy on paper and in reality differ in several meaningful ways. The short and long-term implications both have to be fully taken into the picture before forming an opinion or drawing any inference from the Bankruptcy statistics. Contrary to popular belief, it is not as bad as it sounds and is more frequent for businesses to file for bankruptcy as a means to reset their business to become profitable. Correctly understanding bankruptcy, its implications, and its statistics can help us make better trade decisions in the long run.

What is Bankruptcy?

Bankruptcy is the legal state of an individual or a company that has become insolvent. When an individual or a company is unable to repay its debt, it can file a petition for bankruptcy in the federal court. When individuals lose their income source or when a business takes on continued periods of losses are likely to file bankruptcy.

The bankruptcy process starts when a petition is filed by the debtor or the creditor, although it is more common for the debtors to file for bankruptcy. Successful processing of a bankruptcy petition can benefit the debtor to be discharged of their debts, thus giving them the freedom from the overburdening debts and restart.

When a bankruptcy petition is processed, the assets of the debtor are evaluated, and an appropriate portion may be allotted to repay the creditors. Whether all of the assets are sold off to repay debt or not depends on the types of bankruptcies filed. Many a time, creditors may need to reorganize the debt to allow the debtor to pay off the debt in smaller installments over three to five years.

How can the Bankruptcies numbers be used for analysis?

On paper, all this may seem favorable to the debtor offering immediate relief from the overwhelming debts. The debtor may not be required to pay at all if the debtor does not have assets or income or at least greatly waive off their debt installments. Successful proceeding of a bankruptcy petition can partially or entirely waive off debts for a chance to save your home or business from going-under.

Such an exemption comes at a cost, though. As mentioned, on paper, it seems like a favorable option for the debtor in a tight spot, but in the long-run, it has far-reaching implications. If a debtor is filing bankruptcy, chances are, their credit score has already gone wrong due to failed payment dues in past months. When the bankruptcy is filed, it will stay on the record of that individual or company for ten years. In this process, the credit rating goes low, and a remark of bankruptcy on record prevents you from being eligible for future credits, loans, mortgages, or even credit cards.

When lending sources are all cut off, then it is challenging for both individuals and businesses to become profitable. Some may even end up borrowing from sources where interest rates are much higher than the standard rates, ending up in deeper trouble than before.

Filing bankruptcy is more frequent for businesses to reorganize their remaining assets and come up with a new strategy to be profitable. All the bankruptcy cases are handled in the federal courts by a bankruptcy judge. They are classified as per the bankruptcy code that details different chapters for different types of bankruptcy case scenarios.

From a macroeconomic perspective, bankruptcy filing gives both the debtors and creditors a fresh start by allowing debtors to be eligible for credit and creditors to recover some portion of the credit. Having such a system that can accommodate failures of individuals and companies is a sign of a fair and inclusive economy that embraces and tolerates both ups and downs of individuals and businesses.

From a purely business and growth perspective, increasing bankruptcy cases is just plain bad for the economy as it indicates businesses are shutting down, and people are losing jobs. Both of those scenarios do no good for the economic growth and contribute negatively to both growth and consumer & business sentiment within the nation. Filing of bankruptcy thrashes the equity market performance of corporations as investors lose confidence in the business.

Recessions, war-times, or times like global pandemic observe an increasing number of bankruptcy cases indicating that the economy is not faring well. Hence, from an economic standpoint, the “fewer the better” would be the goal for a prosperous economy.

Impact on Currency

Filing Bankruptcy is often the last resort for the debtor when all other options are closed. Hence, the bankruptcy statistics are backward-looking or a lagging indicator confirming an ongoing past trend which could have been deduced from the past poor performance. Bankruptcy statistics would then be useful for economic analysts for analysis but does not serve as a useful indicator either for the equity or the currency markets. Hence, bankruptcy figures could be overlooked for other leading macroeconomic indicators for the currency markets.

Economic Reports

The United States Courts provide historical data of the quarterly reports of bankruptcy filings in the country on its official website. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) also maintains bankruptcy statistics for reporting members. Moody’s analytics also provide personal and corporate bankruptcy filings on their official website.

Sources of Bankruptcy Statistics

The US Courts maintain bankruptcy filings records on its website.

The OECD Bankruptcy statistics are also helpful for quick reference of the OECD member countries.

Global Bankruptcy statistics are available on Trading Economics.

Moody’s analytics also report personal bankruptcies.

How Bankruptcies’Data Release Affects The Price Charts

Estimating the exact impact of bankruptcies on an economy is hard to quantify. Since the bankruptcies data is released quarterly, its impact on the forex market tends to be negligible because the data is backward-looking. The most recent data was released on June 30, 2020, at 8.00 AM ET and can be accessed from the United States Courts website here. The historical bankruptcies’ data in the US can be accessed at the Trading Economics website.

The screengrab below is from the quarterly bankruptcies’ data from Trading Economics.

As can be seen, the total number of bankruptcies in the United States decreased to 22,482 companies in the second quarter of 2020 from 23,114 companies in the first quarter of 2020.

Now, let’s see how this release made an impact on the Forex price charts.

EUR/USD: Before the Quarterly Bankruptcies Data Release on August 2020, 
Just Before 8.00 AM ET

As can be seen in the above 15-minute EUR/USD chart, the pair was trading on a weak downtrend. This trend can be affirmed since the 20- period Moving Average is decreasing in the steepness of its decline with candles forming closer to it.

EUR/USD: After the Quarterly Bankruptcies Data Release on August 2020, 8.00 AM ET

After the release of the bankruptcies data, the pair formed a 15-minute “hammer” candle. This pattern indicates that the USD became weaker against the EUR. This trend is contrary to the expectations since the number of bankruptcies had declined from the previous quarter. The pair adopted a bullish stance with the candles crossing above a now rising 20-period Moving Average.

Now let’s see how this news release impacted other major currency pairs.

GBP/USD: Before the Quarterly Bankruptcies Data Release on August 2020, 
Just Before 8.00 AM ET

The GBP/USD pair showed a similar weakening downtrend trend as observed with the EUR/USD pair before the release of the bankruptcies data. The 15-minute candles can be seen, forming closer to the 20- period Moving Average, whose downward steepness is decreasing.

GBP/USD: After the Quarterly Bankruptcies Data Release on August 2020, 8.00 AM ET

After the news release, the pair formed a 15-minute bearish “Doji star” candle. Similar to the EUR/USD pair, GBP/USD adopted a bullish stance with the candles crossing above a now rising 20-period Moving Average.

AUD/USD: Before the Quarterly Bankruptcies Data Release on August 2020, 
Just Before 8.00 AM ET

AUD/USD: After the Quarterly Bankruptcies Data Release on August 2020, 8.00 AM ET

Unlike the downtrends observed with the EUR/USD and the GBP/USD pairs, the AUD/USD traded within a subdued neutral trend before the bankruptcies data release. The 15-minute candles were forming around an already flattened 20-period MA. After the data release, the pair formed a 15-minute bullish “Doji star” candle. It later traded in the same bullish pattern as observed in the other pairs.

Bottom Line

In the current age of the coronavirus pandemic, data on bankruptcies provide a vital indicator of the economic conditions. However, in the forex market, these data do not carry much significance, as shown by the above analyses.

Tags Bankruptcies, Economic Reports, Education, Forex, Forex Drivers, Forex Fundamental Analysis, Fundamental Analysis, Macro Economics, News Release, trading

Forex Signals

Hard luck with GBP/USD Signal – Sudden Spike Hit Stop Loss!

Post author By Ali B.
Post date 25 August, 2020
No Comments on Hard luck with GBP/USD Signal – Sudden Spike Hit Stop Loss!

The GBP/USD managed to extend its early-day gains and drew some bids on the day essentially due to the broad-based U.S. dollar instability, triggered by the market upbeat trading sentiment. Besides this, the long-lasting deadlock surrounding the much-awaited U.S. fiscal stimulus also weighed on the safe-haven U.S. dollar and contributed to the currency pair gains. On the contrary, the long-term Brexit woes became the key factor that kept the lid on any additional gains in the currency pair. Also, the Brexit fears overshadowed British business houses’ optimism, as shown by the government data. At this particular time, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3085 and consolidating in the range between 1.3054 – 1.3115.

The coronavirus vaccine hopes were supporting the market trading sentiment. The U.S. Food & Drug Administration (FDA) authorized the use of blood plasma from recovered patients as a treatment option, which eventually overshadowed the fears of rising coronavirus cases in Asia and Europe. Apart from this, the Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) ‘s press release on Monday, saying that the Cambridge, MA-based company is in “advanced exploratory discussions with the E.U. Commission to supply 80 million doses of mRNA-1273, Moderna’s vaccine candidate against COVID-19, as part of the European Commission’s goal to ensure early access to safe and effective COVID-19 vaccines for Europe.”

At the US-China front, the latest remarks between the U.S. and Chinese trade representatives refreshing optimism surrounding the phase one trade deal. The Dragon Nation recently confirmed that the trade deal between the US-China remains intact. He further added that China and the U.S. had a constructive conversation on the trade agreement. As per the keywords, “China says both sides agreed to continue pushing forward implementation of phase 1 trade deal.” This, in turn, underpinned the market sentiment and sent the U.S. dollar down. Also, supporting the market trading sentiment could be the news that the virus cases in Florida and the U.K. are receding off-late.

On the other hand, the market did not give any major attention to the American health official’s warning to Trump administration’s rush for coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine. It s worth reporting that Dr. Anthony Fauci, the head of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told yesterday that rushing out vaccines could undermine trials of other promising candidates.

At the Brexit front, the fears of the no-deal Brexit were further fueled after the failure of the 7th round to reach any agreements by the European Union (E.U.) and the U.K.’s policymaker. Whereas, both parties EU-UK are alleged to each other for the failure. Thus these fears become the key factor that capped further upside in the currency pair.

The losses in the U.S. dollar could also be attributed to the uptick in the U.S. stock futures. Whereas, the U.S. dollar index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies dropped by 0.11% to 93.207 by 9:48 PM ET (2:48 AM GM

Moving ahead, the market traders will keep their eyes on the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, which is scheduled to open on Thursday. The U.S. August consumer confidence is due later in the day and will be key to watch. In the meantime, the USD moves and coronavirus headlines will also closely followed as they could play a key role in the gold run-up.

The GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.3138, holding right below a double top resistance level of 1.3144. We decided to take a selling trade below 1.3144 level, but unfortunately, the pair spiked sharply to test a high of 1.3170 level, which hit our stop loss. But right after hitting our stop loss, the Cable again reversed to trade below 1.3144. The GBP/USD is still holding below 1.3144, but the pair is forming bullish candles so that we may have a bullish trend continuation in the market. Let’s wait for a proper setup. Good luck!

Tags Forex Trading Signal, Fundamental Analysis, GBP-USD, Support and Resistance, Technical Analysis, Technical Outlook, Trade Setup

Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, August 25 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Consumer Confidence in Focus!

Post author By Ali B.
Post date 25 August, 2020
1 Comment on Daily F.X. Analysis, August 25 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Consumer Confidence in Focus!

On the news front, the economic calendar is a bit busy today, and it may offer a medium impact on economic events from the U.S. and Eurozone. During the European session, the focus will remain on the German Final GDP q/q and German Ifo Business Climate data, while the U.S. C.B. Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales from the U.S. will be released during the New York session today. The dollar can gain straighten on positive forecasts.

Economic Events to Watch Today

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD closed at 1.17953 after placing a high of 1.18828 and a low of 1.17539. Overall the movement of EUR/USD remained bearish throughout the day. The EUR/USD pair dropped on Friday and bottomed at 1.1753; it’s lowest since August 12. A stronger U.S. dollar and the poor economic data from Europe weighed on EUR/USD pair.

At 12:15 GMT, the French Flash Services PMI for August fell to 51.9 from the expected 56.3, and the previous 57.3, weighed on Euro. The French Flash Manufacturing PMI also declined to 49.0 against the estimated 53.0 and previous 52.4 and added pressure on single currency Euro.

At 12:30 GMT, the German Flash Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.0 from the anticipated 52.2 and supported Euro; however, the German Flash Services PMI came in as 50.8 against the expected 55.3 and weighed on Euro on Friday.

At 13:00, the Flash Manufacturing PMI for the whole Eurozone declined to 51.7 in August from the projected 52.7 and previous 51.8. The Flash Services PMI for the whole bloc also fell to 50.1 against the forecasted 54.6 and added pressure on EUR.

Apart from German Manufacturing PMI, all the PMI from the whole bloc, including biggest economies, came in against EUR, and hence, EUR/USD pair suffered. The data showed that only German manufacturing activity was expanded in August. At the same time, other countries, along with whole euro bloc’s manufacturing & services activities, were contracted in August. Meanwhile, the greenback was the top performer on Friday with DXY up by 0.5% on 93.5 level, the highest since Monday. The U.S. Dollar was already supported by the release of Fed Meeting minutes on Wednesday, and on Friday, the support was extended after the release of positive PMI and Home Sales data.

At 18:45 GMT, the Flash Manufacturing PMI and the Flash Services PMI were released from the U.S. The Manufacturing PMI surged to 53.6 against the expected 51.9, and the Services PMI was surged to 54.u from the 50.9 forecasted. The expansion in the Manufacturing & Services sector of the U.S. gave strength to the U.S. dollar. At 19:00 GMT, the Existing Home Sales in July exceeded the expectations of 5.40M and came in as 5.86Mand supported the U.S. dollar.

The strong U.S. dollar exerted more pressure on EUR.USD prices and dragged them down at the ending day of the week. Meanwhile, the Euro currency was also under pressure because of the resurgence of coronavirus cases in Europe. In recent days France, Germany, and Italy have experienced their highest daily case counts since the spring, and Spain has found itself amid a major outbreak.

Over the past two weeks, Spain has seen Europe’s fastest rising caseload with 142 positive cases per 100,000 people. The number had risen more than 3,000 by the time the state of emergency ended on June 21.

The EUR/USD pair was also under pressure on Friday because of the possible entry of a new phase of the pandemic in Europe.

Daily Technical Levels

Support	Pivot	Resistance
1.1787	1.1797	1.1807
1.1777		1.1817
1.1767		1.1827

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD pair fell sharply from 1.1954 level to 1.1790 level. For now, the pair is likely to find an immediate resistance at 1.1806 level, and a bullish breakout of 1.1806 level can lead EUR/USD prices towards 1.1886 level. On the lower side, the violation of the 1.1751 level can extend the selling trend until 1.1706.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.30627 after placing a high of 1.31488 and a low of 1.30534. Overall, the movement of the GBP/USD pair remained bearish throughout the day. The GBP/USD pair extended its previous day losses and fell further on Monday to a low of 1.3053 level. In the absence of significant macroeconomic data from the U.K. or U.S., the greenback’s market valuation remained the sole driver of GBP/USD pair on the day.

The U.S. Dollar Index dropped below 93 levels during the first half of the day because of upbeat market sentiment. The risk sentiment was fueled after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced on Sunday that it had approved the blood-plasma treatment for coronavirus patients in case of emergency.

The blood plasma from the recovered patients of the virus could increase the health and decrease the morality, and it was approved to use for severe or emergency cases of coronavirus in America. This method has been used in many countries, and the USA has approved it now. U.S. President Donald Trump urged the recovered patients of coronavirus to donate their blood plasma so that fight against coronavirus pandemic could take its pace and recovery chances could increase.

The risk perceived GBP/USD pair gained from this news and rose in the early session on Monday; however, in late American sessions, the rising U.S. Treasury bond yields helped the U.S. dollar to gain traction and lifted the U.S. dollar Index. The DXY moved to a high of 93.30 and was up by 0.06% whereas, the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield was up by more than 2% on Monday.

The strong U.S. dollar in late session exerted pressure on GBP/USD pair that pulled its prices towards the downward track and hence paired posted losses.

Meanwhile, an internal British government document was leaked on the U.K. tabloid “The Sun” that allegedly outlined the country’s plans in a reasonable worst-case scenario. The second wave of coronavirus, along with the severe flooding and the flu with a no-deal Brexit, could cause a systematic economic crisis. According to that document, the major impact will be on unemployment, disposable incomes, business activity, international trade, and market stability.

The document said that social distancing & mask-wearing would be continued until 2021. The government document also revealed that the navy would be deployed to prevent illegal European fishing boats from clashing with British vessels. The document was dated as of July 2020, and also said that if the U.K. and E.U. failed to reach a post-Brexit trade deal, then hard borders and tariffs will come into effect on January 1, 2021.

Trade talks between both parties have stalled with no breakthrough in sight and the chief Brexit negotiator of European Union, Micheal Barnier has said that the talks were going even backward instead of moving forward. At the same time, the U.K. negotiator, David Frost, said that a little progress had been made. Both sides provide mixed views and raise the confusion amongst investors that have been weighing on GBP/USD pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support	Pivot	Resistance
1.3082	1.3092	1.3103
1.3071		1.3113
1.3062		1.3124

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD pair is trading sideways above a strong support level if 1.3072. The support here is extended by 1.3074 level, where the bearish breakout of 1.3074 level can extend selling unto 1.3007 level. On the higher side, the next resistance is likely to be found around 1.3155 level. The 50 EMA and the technical indicators such as RSI, MACD, and 50 periods of EMA suggest a selling bias in the Cable. Let’s consider taking selling trades below 1.3075 level, while buying can be seen if the GBP/USD pair continues to close candles over 1.3075 level.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 105.979 after placing a high of 105.995 and a low of 105.687. Overall the movement of the USD/JPY pair remained bullish throughout the day. The USD/JPY pair posted small gains on Monday amid the risk-on market sentiment after the FDA approved of coronavirus treatment. However, the lingering US-China tensions and the fact that the U.S. Congress was far from giving any news about the next stimulus kept the market risk sentiment limited.

The U.S. Dollar Index was up on Monday to 93.2 level, and the USD/JPY pair also rose because of improved demand for the U.S. dollar.

However, the main reason for the upward trend was a possible coronavirus treatment that was already being used in different countries. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has approved the use of blood plasma from recovered patients to treat severely ill coronavirus patients.

The FDA approved this treatment only in case of an emergency and to recover the most severe cases. Whereas, President Donald Trump appealed to the Americans who have recovered from viruses to donate plasma.

This raised the market risk sentiment and weighed on safe-haven Japanese Yen that ultimately pushed the USD/JPY pair on high.

Japanese Yen remained on the back foot on Monday with global equity indexes posting gains at the start of the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up by 0.8%, and the S&P 500 was up by 0.7% on Monday amid improved risk appetite.

Meanwhile, the next stimulus package was still not announced by the U.S. Congress as both Republicans & Democrats were having differences in the size of the package. On the US-China front, the United States and China have already signed the phase one trade deal earlier this year, and China has trouble living up to it. Beijing is supposed to increase the purchase of U.S. exports by 200 Billion U.S. dollars by the end of 2021 in exchange for tariff cuts on Chinese goods by the U.S.

Last week, both parties were scheduled to hold a video conference meeting to discuss the implementations of the phase-one trade deal and issue a review of its progress. But the meeting was canceled by the U.S. President Donald Trump in anger over Beijing for the pandemic outbreak.

The Trump administration has also denied rescheduling the meeting, and it is expected that the review will not be issued. This also raised the uncertainty and kept the risk sentiment under pressure that limited the gains in the USD/JPY pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support	Pivot	Resistance
105.7700	105.8500	105.9500
105.6700		106.0300
105.6000		106.1300

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Tuesday, the USD/JPY is trading sideways in a broad trading range of 106.300 to 105.240. At the movement, the USD/JPY is tossing above and below 50 periods EMA, while the RSI and MACD are in support of a neutral trend. The recent series of Doji and Shooting start candles are suggesting indecision among traders. Sooner or later, we may see USD/JPY prices break out of the range. Once it happens, the USD/JPY may trade bullish over 106.300 to target 107.084. On the lower side, violation of 105.240 level can drive selling unto 104.300. Good luck!

Tags Daily Brief, EURUSD, Forex, Forex Trading, Fundamental Analysis, Support and Resistance, Technical Analysis, Technical Outlook, Trade Setup, trading, USDJPY

Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, August 25 – Bitcoin Whales List Reaches All-Time High; DeFi Projects Still Booming

Post author By Ilija Rankovic
Post date 25 August, 2020
1 Comment on Daily Crypto Review, August 25 – Bitcoin Whales List Reaches All-Time High; DeFi Projects Still Booming

Cryptocurrencies had a steady day, with most of them being in the slight green. Bitcoin is currently trading for $11,768, which represents an increase of 1.22% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum gained 4.32% on the day, while XRP gained 1.85%.

Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

When taking a look at top100 cryptocurrencies, Aave gained 33.55% on the day, making it the most prominent daily gainer. Kusama (26.13%) and The JUST (17.30%) also did great. On the other hand, Nervos Network lost 7.95%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by OMG Network’s loss of 7.59% and Siacoin’s drop of 7.53%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s dominance level has decreased slightly, with its value currently at 60.04%. This value represents a 0.16% difference to the downside when compared to our last report.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The cryptocurrency market cap increased in value over the course of the day. Its current value is $368.97 billion, which represents an increase of $6.26 billion when compared to our previous report.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

Bitcoin is at an important crossroad that will decide its short-term future. While it is currently stuck between $11,630 and $12,000, the largest cryptocurrency by market cap will soon have to decide on its direction. Even though a retest of the $11,630 support seems much more plausible, that does not mean that BTC will make a sharp move towards the downside. If the level holds, Bitcoin might have a good chance of bouncing towards $12,000 yet again.

The low volume also shows that a bigger move is on the horizon.

Traders should look for what BTC will do after it hits one of its support/resistance levels before making a trade.

BTC/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical factors:

Price is below its 50-period EMA and below its 21-period EMA
Price is slightly above its middle band
RSI is neutral (50.15)
Volume is below average and stagnant

Key levels to the upside Key levels to the downside

1: $12,015 1: $11,630

2: $12,300 2: $11,460

3: $12,900 3: $11,090

Ethereum

Unlike Bitcoin that’s preparing for a move and trading with reduced volume and volatility, Ethereum had a great day and ended up making good gains. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap had a small volume spike, which was significant enough to push the price up and past the descending trend it was in for a couple of days.

Ethereum is now stabilizing at around $400, while its volume is decreasing.

Ethereum traders should look for Bitcoin’s next move, which ETH will most likely follow.

ETH/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical Factors:

Price is currently above its 21-period and its 50-period EMA
Price is at its upper band
RSI is neutral (52.30)
Volume is slightly increased from the previous days

Key levels to the upside Key levels to the downside

1: $415 1: $400

2: $445 2: $361

3: $496 3: $340

Ripple

XRP spent the day consolidating above $0.285 level, which is regained the previous day. The third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap focused on stabilizing above $0.285, but without much success. While it is still technically above it, XRP would need a small move towards the upside (or some other sort of a decisive move) to confirm its position.

XRP traders should be careful around the $.285 level and pick their trade carefully based on where XRP will go.

XRP/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical factors:

Price is above its 21-period and below its 50-period EMA
Price is slightly above the middle band
RSI is neutral (48.63)
Volume is below average and stable

Key levels to the upside Key levels to the downside

1: $0.31 1: $0.285

2: $0.32 2: $0.266

3: $0.332 3:$0.2454

Tags bitcoin, BTC, Crypto, Crypto Trading, cryptocurrency, Daily Brief, ETH, Ethereum, Fundamental Analysis, Ripple, Technical Analysis, trading, XRP

Forex Fundamental Analysis

Understanding The Importance Of ‘Small Business Sentiment’ In The Forex Market

Post author By Reddy Shyam Shankar
Post date 24 August, 2020
No Comments on Understanding The Importance Of ‘Small Business Sentiment’ In The Forex Market

Introduction

Small Businesses and self-employed account for a large portion of the private sector. Small and medium scale businesses’ success and failure impact a large section of the country’s population. Critical economic indicators like employment rate, consumer spending, GDP are all directly affected by the performance of small scale businesses. By paying attention to small business sentiment indices, the severity of economic conditions can be assessed more accurately, helping us to form more informed investment decisions.

What is Small Business Sentiment?

Small Business

The definitions of a small business differ across corporations, regions, and countries. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) defines a small business as an independent and privately owned, managed by an individual or a small group of people, and have less than 20 employees. A business having 20-199 employees is termed a medium scale business.

Small Businesses are generally diverse, but broadly they can be segregated into a few broad categories, though. One of those sectors includes providing services to other businesses and households that can include professionals like plumbers, home doctors, electricians, etc. Another sector includes retail outlets like grocery, bars, saloons, etc. Finally, another sector that these businesses can be categorized into is the niche service and goods providers in the manufacturing, construction, and agricultural sectors.

Given the diversity, a large number of activities are taken up by these businesses. In many areas where large businesses cannot reach out due to lack of business viability, these small ones plug the gap. For instance, a remote area having a population of about 50-100 people would not be suitable for a supermarket; instead, a small private grocery shop would do the trick.

Small Business Sentiment indices try to measure the general sentiment towards the business outlook in the current and coming months. Since the sentiment is abstract, the numbers are not precisely quantifiable and differ from person to person. Still, the sentiment indices are calculated as an average of a selected sample of small businesses every month or quarter. Higher and more positive numbers indicate a positive outlook towards business prospects and indicate the economy is likely to grow and prosper. On the other hand, low and negative numbers indicate a weak business prospect, and the economy is likely to slow down.

How can the Small Business Sentiment numbers be used for analysis?

In the case of Australia, that has over two million businesses that come under the category of small businesses, which is over 95% of the entire business sector. The large and established business sectors contribute to the remaining 5%. Since the failure rate of small businesses is quite high in any economy compared to the business giants, focusing on it gives us more accurate and economy sensitive data.

While big corporations generally have their profits nearly constant with mild swings during all business cycles, the small businesses are more sensitive, and their P/L (Profit/Loss) swings quite wildly over business cycles. Small businesses are more vulnerable and take a bigger hit from economic shocks resulting in closures or filing bankruptcy. In contrast, larger businesses are more resilient and can weather economic storms.

The small businesses contribute to a large share of employment; in Australia, it accounted for 43% of total employment. Small businesses are also generally the source of innovations where the smaller size of the organization gives room for the more creative expression of employees. For instance, in the video gaming industry, some of the most innovative gameplay mechanics have come from indie studios (small remote studios) that have had humble beginnings.

Overall the small-business sentiment gives more economy-sensitive data, where the direct impact and severity of economic conditions can be easily measured. The footprint of large businesses in terms of global or nationwide presence masks the underlying weaker economic growth in particular areas. For instance, an international giant like Sony may have had poor sales in the music industry, which are not reflected in its final sales figures if they had a good sale in the electronics department.

The high failure rate of small businesses can broadly impact the employment rate, consumer spending. The large scale failure of small businesses can be in general attributed to weak economic conditions, less consumer demand, high dollar value, lack of additional or tolerant policy from the Government to support small and medium businesses.

Impact on Currency

As the currency markets deal with macroeconomic indicators, small business sentiment indicators are overlooked for the broader and more inclusive business sentiment indicators like AIG MI (Australia Industry Group Manufacturing Index). The small business sentiment is useful for a more in-depth analysis of small regional companies and is useful for equity traders focusing on small company stocks. It is also useful for the Government officials to understand and draw out any support policies to maintain employment rate, and avoid bankruptcy to small-scale businesses.

It is also worth noting that not all countries maintain sentiment indices for small businesses, which makes analysis and comparison difficult for currency traders. Currency traders generally look for economic conditions across multiple countries to decide on investing in a currency; in that case, small business indices are not useful. Overall, it is a low-impact leading economic indicator that the currency markets generally overlook due to other alternative macroeconomic leading indicators.

Economic Reports

In Australia, the National Australian Bank publishes monthly and quarterly reports on the performance of small-business and their prospects on its official website. A detailed report on how different sectors are faring during current economic conditions and probable business directions are all listed out in the reports.

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index is famous in the United States for reporting monthly small business sentiment on its official website.

Sources of Small Business Sentiment Indices

We can find the Small Business Sentiment indices for Australia on NAB. We can find consolidated reports of Small Business Sentiment for available countries on Trading Economics along with NFIB statistics.

How Small Business Sentiment Data Release Affects The Price Charts?

As mentioned earlier, the National Australian Bank (NAB) is the primary source of business sentiment in Australia. The bank publishes monthly, and quarterly NAB Business Sentiment reports. The most recent report was released on August 11, 2020, at 1.30 AM GMT and can be accessed at Investing.com here. A more in-depth review of the monthly business survey in Australia can be accessed at the National Australian Bank website.

The screengrab below is of the NAB Business Confidence from Investing.com. On the right, is a legend that indicates the level of impact the Fundamental Indicator has on the AUD.

As can be seen, low impact is expected on the AUD upon the release of the NAB Business Confidence report. The screengrab below shows the most recent changes in business confidence in Australia. In July 2020, the index improved from -8 to 0, showing that business sentiment in Australia improved during the survey period. Therefore, it is expected that the AUD will be stronger compared to other currencies.

Now, let’s see how this release made an impact on the Forex price charts.

AUD/USD: Before NAB BC Release on August 11, 2020, Just Before 1.30 AM GMT

As can be seen on the above 15-minute chart, the AUD/USD pair was trading on a neutral pattern before the NAB Business Confidence report release. This trend is evidenced by candles forming on a flattening 20-period Moving Average, indicating that traders were waiting for the news release.

AUD/USD: After NAB BC Release on August 11, 2020, 1.30 AM GMT

After the news release, the pair formed a 15-minute bullish candle. As expected, the AUD adopted a bullish stance and continued trading in steady uptrend afterward with a sharply rising 20-period Moving Average.

Now let’s see how this news release impacted other major currency pairs.

AUD/JPY: Before NAB BC Release on August 11, 2020, Just Before 1.30 AM GMT

Before the news release, the AUD/JPY pair was shifting its trading trend from neutral to an uptrend. Bullish candles are forming above the 20-period Moving Average.

AUD/JPY: After NAB BC Release on August 11, 2020, 1.30 AM GMT

Similar to the AUD/USD pair, the AUD/JPY pair formed a bullish 15-minute candle after the news release. The pair later continued trading in a steady uptrend.

AUD/CAD: Before NAB BC Release on August 11, 2020, Just Before 1.30  AM GMT

AUD/CAD: After NAB BC Release on August 11, 2020, 1.30 AM GMT

The AUD/CAD pair was trading in a similar neutral pattern as the AUD/USD pair before the news release. This trend is shown by candles forming on and around a flat 20-period Moving Average. After the news release, the pair formed a bullish 15-minute candle and adopted a bullish uptrend, as observed in the previous pairs.

Bottom Line

Theoretically, the small business sentiment is a low-impact indicator. However, in the age of Coronavirus afflicted economies, it has become a useful leading indicator of economic health and potential recovery. This phenomenon is what propelled the NAB Business Confidence indicator to have the observed significant impact on the AUD.

Tags Currency pairs, Education, Forex, Forex Drivers, Forex Fundamentals, Fundamental Analysis, Fundamental Trading, Impact, Small Business Sentiment, Small Businesses, trading

Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, August 24 – YFI The Youngest DeFi Billionaire; IOTA Going Bankrupt

Post author By Ilija Rankovic
Post date 24 August, 2020
1 Comment on Daily Crypto Review, August 24 – YFI The Youngest DeFi Billionaire; IOTA Going Bankrupt

Cryptocurrencies spent most of the weekend recovering from the bearish move, which occurred late Friday and early Saturday. Bitcoin is currently trading for $11,731, which represents an increase of 1.11% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum gained 0.8% on the day, while XRP gained 1.71%.

Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

When taking a look at top100 cryptocurrencies, Cosmos gained 29.48% on the day, making it the most prominent daily gainer. IRISnet (21.33%) and The Midas Touch (18.49%) also did great. On the other hand, yearn.finance lost 8.32%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by Ren’s loss of 7.36% and Komodo’s drop of 6.67%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s dominance level has increased slightly and passed the 60% mark to the upside, with its value currently at 60.20%. This value represents a 0.46% difference to the upside when compared to our last report.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The cryptocurrency market cap experienced a decrease in value over the course of the weekend. Its current value is $362.71 billion, which represents a decrease of $10.46 billion when compared to our previous report.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

After a failed breakout of the ascending triangle, Bitcoin’s price started moving down until it reached $11,460 on Saturday. After reaching that level and not being able to pass it to the downside, Bitcoin bounced and started moving up slowly. The whole weekend was rather slow in terms of volatility, but extremely important in terms of where Bitcoin will end up. The fight for $11,630 was successful, and BTC is now above it, with the potential of going further up. However, the move to the upside will not go far with this volume, as it is way too low for any significant movement.

BTC traders should look for a trade near the $11,900 level, which might act as resistance.

BTC/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical factors:

Price is above its 50-period EMA as well as its 21-period EMA
Price is slightly above its middle band
RSI is neutral (54.45)
Volume is below average

Key levels to the upside Key levels to the downside

1: $12,015 1: $11,630

2: $12,300 2: $11,460

3: $12,900 3: $11,090

Ethereum

Ethereum’s weekend was also spent in recovering from the bearish moves that occurred in the previous week. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap managed to stabilize at below-$400 levels, which it is now trying to pass to the upside. However, the moves which occurred in the past week created a downward-facing trend, which is creating resistance towards the upside, which Ethereum is struggling to pass with low volume, which it now has.

Ethereum traders can look for a trade after Ethereum breaks the trend (to any side).

ETH/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical Factors:

Price is currently above its 21-period and below its 50-period EMA
Price is at its middle band
RSI is neutral (49.72)
Volume is below average

Key levels to the upside Key levels to the downside

1: $415 1: $400

2: $445 2: $361

3: $496 3: $340

Ripple

XRP’s chart looks no different than Bitcoin’s and Ethereum’s chart. The third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap spent the weekend recovering from what was lost during the bearish moves that occurred throughout the week. XRP stabilized at $0.28 and then gathered the strength to push past it. While the price is currently above the $0.285 level, it is not certain that it will stay that way. XRP would need a confirmation move in order to turn $0.285 into true support.

XRP traders can look for after XRP confirms its position, or after it drops below $0.285.

XRP/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical factors:

Price is currently above the 21-period and below the 50-period EMA
Price is slightly above the middle band
RSI is neutral (51.50)
Volume is stable and below average

Key levels to the upside Key levels to the downside

1: $0.31 1: $0.285

2: $0.32 2: $0.266

3: $0.332 3:$0.2454

Tags bitcoin, BTC, Crypto, Crypto Trading, cryptocurrency, Daily Brief, ETH, Ethereum, Fundamental Analysis, Ripple, Technical Analysis, trading, XRP

Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, August 24 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Choppy Sessions In Play!

Post author By Ali B.
Post date 24 August, 2020
1 Comment on Daily F.X. Analysis, August 24 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Choppy Sessions In Play!

On the news front, the market isn’t expected to offer any major economic event today; therefore, most of the market movement is likely to be based upon technical levels. Choppy sessions are expected today.

Economic Events to Watch Today

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The U.S. Dollar was already supported by the release of Fed Meeting minutes on Wednesday, and on Friday, the support was extended after the release of positive PMI and Home Sales data.

The EUR/USD pair was also under pressure on Friday because of the possible entry of a new phase of the pandemic in Europe.

Daily Technical Levels

Support	Pivot	Resistance
1.1787	1.1797	1.1807
1.1777		1.1817
1.1767		1.1827

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.30884 after placing a high of 1.32550 and a low of 1.30588. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained bearish throughout the day. At 04:01 GMT, the GfK Consumer Confidence in August declined to -27 against the forecasted -25 and weighed on British Pound and added in the losses of GBP/USD pair. At 11:00 GMT, the Public Sector Net Borrowing increased to 25.9B from the expected 28.3B and supported British Pound. The Retail Sales for July also increased to 3.6% from the forecasted 2.0% and supported British Pound.

At 13:30 GMT, the Flash Manufacturing MI from Britain exceeded the expectations of 54.0 and came in as 55.3 and supported GBP. The Flash Services PMI also rose to 60.1 against the estimated 57.0 and supported GBP. At 15:00 GMT, the CBI Industrial Order Expectation in August was declined to -44 from the anticipated -34 and weighed on GBP/USD pair and added in its losses on Friday.

On the other hand, at 18:45 GTM, the Flash Manufacturing PMI from the U.S. surged to 53.6 from the anticipated 51.9 and supported the U.S. dollar that weighed on currency pair. The Flash Services PMI also surged to 54.8 against the anticipated 50.9 and supported the U.S. dollar. The Existing Home Sales exceeded the estimate of 5.40M and came in as 5.86M and supported the U.S. dollar that ultimately weighed on GBP/USD pair.

Meanwhile, on Brexit front, On Friday, the British and European Union negotiator made slight progress towards the post-Brexit trade deal in talks this week. Both sides were concerned that time to reach an agreement was running out before an end-year deadline.

The E.U. Chief negotiator, Micheal Barnier, said that those who were hoping for negotiations to move swiftly forward this week would be disappointed. However, his British counterpart, David Frost, said that a deal on post-Brexit relations was still possible and was still London’s goal, but it would not be easy to achieve.

Frost said that several significant areas remain to be resolved, and even when there was a broad understanding between negotiators, there was still much work to do as a time for both sides was short.

Britain shifted to be the leading country to ever leave the European Union on January 31 after 46 years of membership. Both sides are now negotiating a new partnership to be effective from 2021 on everything from trade and transport to energy and security. If both sides failed to reach an agreement, Britain would follow the World Trade Organization’s rules.

The attest round of talks between the U.K. & E.U. was also not fruitful, and it has decreased hopes for a post-Brexit deal. It means the hopes about the no-Brexit deal returned in the market and weighed on GBP/USD pair that caused a sudden fall in its prices on Friday.

The U.K. economy is also under pressure as the furlough scheme that has protected millions of jobs is scheduled to end in October. This would hit the labor market and increase unemployment, making it difficult to recover from the record 20% slump in the second quarter of this year.

These fears have also weighed on single currency Pound and kept the pair GBP/USD under pressure.

Daily Technical Levels

Support	Pivot	Resistance
1.3082	1.3092	1.3103
1.3071		1.3113
1.3062		1.3124

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On Monday, the GBP/USD pair is trading sideways above a strong support level if 1.3072. The support here is extended by 1.3074 level, where the bearish breakout of 1.3074 level can extend selling unto 1.3007 level. On the higher side, the next resistance is likely to be found around 1.3155 level. The 50 EMA and the technical indicators such as RSI, MACD, and 50 periods of EMA suggest a selling bias in the Cable. Let’s consider taking selling trades below 1.3075 level, while buying can be seen if the GBP/USD pair continues to close candles over 1.3075 level.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 105.789 after placing a high of 106.070 and a low of 105.439. Overall the movement of USD/JPY remained almost flat yet slightly bullish. On Friday, the USD/JPY pair dropped in the first half of the day after the release of Japanese Manufacturing PMI and the persisting uncertainty due to ongoing geopolitical tensions. However, in the second half of the day, the USD/JPY pair recovered its early daily losses and rose to post slight gains amid better than expected U.S. economic data.

AT 04:30 GMT, the National Core CPI for the year declined to 0.0% from the estimated 0.1% and weighed on Japanese Yen. At 05:30 GMT, the Flash Manufacturing PMI from Japan in August rose to 46.6 against the estimated 45.0 and came in favor of Japanese Yen. The improvement in the manufacturing sector in Japan gave a push to Japanese Yen and dragged the pair USD/JPY to the lower level near 105.400.

However, after the release of positive macroeconomic data from the U.S., the USD/JPY pair started to rise and converted its daily losses in gains. At 18:45 GMT, the Flash Manufacturing PMI in August rose to 53.6 against the projected 51.9, and the Flash Services PMI rose to 54.8 against the anticipated 50.9.

The expansion in the U.S. manufacturing and services sector gave strength to the U.S. dollar that was more supported by the release of U.S. Existing Home Sales data. The Existing Home Sales in the U.S. for July rose to 5.86M from the anticipated 5.40M and gave a push to the U.S. dollar that added strength in USD/JPY pair.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) that measures the value of the U.S. dollar against the basket of six major currencies rose by0.5% on Friday towards 93.5 level. It also helped USD/JPY pair to recover some of its daily losses on Friday.

Meanwhile, the ongoing geopolitical tensions between U.S. & China, along with the U.S. & Iran tensions, also kept the pair USD/JPY under pressure at the ending day of the week. On the US-China front, the US Trump administration denied acknowledging the plans to meet China over the discussion of implementations of the phase-one trade deal. The U.S. Commerce ministry spokesman Gao Feng said that in the coming days, the U.S. & China would hold meetings to discuss phase one trade deal.

However, the denial of any such meeting by Trump Administration added uncertainty in the market and kept the pair USD/JPY under pressure.

N the other hand, the U.S. called all U.N. sanctions to be restored on Iran after a violation of the 2015 nuclear deal. However, 13 out of 15 U.N. council members wrote against the U.S.’s request to impose sanctions on Iran as in 2018; the U.S. ended its legal terms with the 2015 nuclear deal by calling it the worst deal ever.

Meanwhile, the Chairman of China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, Guo Shuqing said that the U.S. had placed domestic laws above international laws, which will affect the Chinese people and affect the whole world people including Americans. Shuqing also mentions that these sanctions by the U.S. on Hong Kong lacked legality and violated the market economy’s principles. The ongoing geopolitical tensions increased the uncertainty, which supported the Japanese Yen safe0haven status and contributed to the flat movement of the USD/JPY pair on Friday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support	Pivot	Resistance
105.7700	105.8500	105.9500
105.6700		106.0300
105.6000		106.1300

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading sideways in a broad trading range of 106.300 to 105.240. At the movement, the USD/JPY is tossing above and below 50 periods EMA, while the RSI and MACD are in support of a neutral trend. The recent series of Doji and Shooting start candles are suggesting indecision among traders. Sooner or later, we may see USD/JPY prices break out of the range. Once it happens, the USD/JPY may trade bullish over 106.300 to target 107.084. On the lower side, violation of 105.240 level can drive selling unto 104.300. Good luck!

Tags Daily Brief, EURUSD, Forex, forex indicator, Forex Trading, Fundamental Analysis, GBPUSD, Support and Resistance, Technical Analysis, Technical Outlook, Trade Setup, trading, USDJPY

Forex Fundamental Analysis

What Is ‘Interbank Rate’ and What Impact Does It Have On The Forex Market?

Post author By Reddy Shyam Shankar
Post date 21 August, 2020
No Comments on What Is ‘Interbank Rate’ and What Impact Does It Have On The Forex Market?

Introduction

The Interbank rate is an essential tool used by the central authorities to control the money flow within the economy. Changes in the interbank rate can add or withdraw money from the system overall, which can stimulate growth or slow down the economy, respectively. The Interbank rate drives interest rates for bank loans, which are the significant sources of capital for businesses and the general public. The understanding of the Interbank rate is crucial for our analysis.

What is the Interbank Rate?

The interbank rate is the percentage rate at which the United States banks lend each other money. A country’s Central bank dictates the banking practices for the banks within the nation. For the United States, it is the Federal Reserve which decides the interest rates and the banking practices. The central banks, in general, demand 10% of their total deposits be held as reserves to maintain liquidity and meet withdrawal needs.

Based on the interbank rate, banks having excess cash can lend money to the banks, which are falling short of capital to meet their immediate requirements or to maintain their minimum reserves.

What is the Interbank Rate – Second Definition?

The interbank rate also refers to the rate at which banks exchange currencies in the global forex market. The forex market consists of an interbank market, which is a significant part of the forex market system overall. This interbank market consists of big players. Most of those are banks, large financial institutions, investment banks, and mutual funds corporations and do not include retail forex institutions or traders.

The interbank rate numbers are what you see when you search in Google the currency exchange rate for a particular pair, but this is not the rate at which you can trade a pair. This rate is only available for the interbank market participants who are usually big financial corporations trading in millions and billions. The price you see is a jacked-up price of the interbank rate in your platform. Your rate is the sum of interbank rate and the spread which your platform charges for trade as profit.

The minimum transaction in the interbank market is in millions; hence the retail traders will not be able to afford the interbank rate. The interbank market participants trade currencies to manage their exchange rate and control interest rate risk.

Although, you can neither control nor trade at the interbank rate, important for traders to be aware of the interbank rate to avoid getting scammed by Forex brokers who main charge way above the interbank rate. The decentralized system of Forex allows for self-regulation, and hence the interbank rates hand the actual exchange rates available to traders are competitive and self-correcting. However, novice traders who are not aware of this might lose money by paying an excessive spread to brokers.

Economic Reports

Federal Reserve determines the interbank rate, and the average of all the interbank rates in all the lending transactions between the banks in the United States is called the Fed Funds Rate.

The interbank credit system is applicable for a short period, usually ranging from overnight to a maximum of a week. Hence, the interbank rate is also called the Fed Funds Rate.

The Federal Reserve announces the Fed Funds Rate based on a variety of factors like inflation, GDP growth, recession, monetary policy, etc. On the 1st of every month, the Fed Funds Rate is released.

How can the Interbank Rate be Used for Analysis?

The Fed Funds Rate drives money in and out of the economy. The Fed Funds Rate drives the interest rate on bank loans that is available to the public and businesses.

A higher Fed Funds Rate would mean that loans are now expensive than before. To take a loan now would mean paying more interest rate. Hence the general public is discouraged from taking loans indirectly. On the other hand, now it would be more profitable to save as they receive a higher interest rate on their deposits. Both these factors can change the general public sentiment on money spending. A high-interest rate environment withdraws money from the economy, thereby slowing down economic activity as people are less willing to spend.

Conversely, a low interbank rate encourages banks to give loans at a cheaper rate, and hence more businesses and people will be able to afford loans; this will ultimately lead to the injection of money into the system overall. When more money is available to a company or an individual, the natural tendency is to increase spending, businesses may use for expansion plans. All of this will stimulate economic growth and result in printing higher levels of GDP.

Impact on Currency

Traders and investors can use the Fed Funds Rate as part of their analysis. Since Central authorities use the fed funds rate to manage the economy and money supply, a historical correlation of interest rates with GDP growth rates can help us to determine the direction of the economy and the value of its currency. It is a proportional indicator meaning higher interbank rates relate to currency appreciating phenomenon and vice versa.

Higher Interbank rates result in banks paying out higher interest rates for deposits, which can also attract foreign investors to purchase domestic currency to make a deposit and earn better returns on their investment. Therefore, an increase in capital flowing into the economy and decreased local currency circulation in the rest of the world, thereby increasing its demand and worth.

A low interbank rate results in increased money flow into the system, which can be inflationary, thereby depreciating the purchasing power of its currency. Conversely, a higher interbank rate results in decreased money circulation in the system, which will be deflationary for the economy, and the reduced demand for goods and services will increase the purchasing power of the currency as people would tend to save than spend.

Even though the interbank rate changes do not immediately get reflected in the macroeconomic numbers like GDP and currency value, it is a slow indicator in that sense that it takes a particular time (weeks to few months) to show its effect in actuality. It is also important to know that the authorities use the interbank rate as a response or corrective measure to the current economic situation.

It is more of a gate check for inflation or deflation. It is more of an effect to a cause and not a cause in itself. It is a passive indicator in comparison to other indicators. It reflects more the past and current economic activities than upcoming financial situations. The initial temporary volatility in the currency after the news release is typical, but the long term effect reflects after a certain number of weeks only.

Sources of Interbank Rates

We can find out the Fed Funds Rate from the official website of the Federal Reserve System of the United States: Federal Reserve System | Selected Interest Rates. We can also find a historical graphical representation of the effective fed fund rate changes in the St. Louis FRED website. For reference – Fed Fund Rate

Impact of Interbank Rate News Announcement

The ultimate goal of any fundamental analysis is usually to determine if there will be a hike or a cut in the interest rates. As mentioned earlier, the interbank rate can also be referred to as the Federal funds rate. In the US, the Federal Reserve releases the interbank rate is determined by the FOMC which meets eight times in a year to set this rate

Below is a screengrab of the Federal Funds Rate from Forex Factory. On the right, we can see a legend that indicates the level of impact the Fundamental Indicator has on the corresponding currency.

The snapshot below shows the latest release of the Federal Funds Rate on July 29, 2020, at 1.00 PM ET. In the latest release, the FOMC recommended that the rate remains within the target of 0% and 0.25%. This range was within the analysts’ expectations.

It is worth noting that this year, the Federal Reserve has conducted two emergency rate cuts to combat the Coronavirus inflicted economic shocks. The first emergency rate cut was on March 3, 2020, at 10.00 AM ET, as shown by the screenshot below. The Federal funds rate was reduced to a target range of 1.00% to 1.25% from the previous range of 1.50% to 1.75%.

At another unscheduled emergency meeting on March 15, 2020, at 4.00 PM ET, the FOMC cut the federal funds rate by 1.00% to a target range of 0.00% to 0.25%.

Now, let’s see how this news release made an impact on the Forex price charts.

EUR/USD: Before Interbank Rate release on July 29, 2020, Just Before 1.00 PM ET

As shown on the above 15-minute chart of the EUR/USD, the pair was on a progressing uptrend between 7.45 AM and 12.45 PM ET. This uptrend as evidenced by the subsequent bullish candles forming above the 20-period Moving Average.

EUR/USD: After Interbank Rate release on July 29, 2020, 1.00 PM ET

After the FOMC release of the Federal funds rate, there is a renewed volatility in the market. The initial market reaction was negative for USD since the FOMC kept the rate unchanged. The rate release did not result in a shift in the trend since most traders anticipate it and price in their expectations in the market.

Let’s quickly see how this new release has impacted some of the other major Forex currency pairs.

GBP/USD: Before Interbank Rate release on July 29, 2020, Just Before 1.00 PM ET

GBP/USD: After Interbank Rate release on July 29, 2020, 1.00 PM ET

The GBP/USD pair shows similar trends, as observed with the EUR/USD. There is a steady uptrend hours before the interbank rate release. Market volatility is present after the news release but not significant enough to alter the prevailing trend.

USD/CAD: Before Interbank Rate release on July 29, 2020, Just Before 1.00 PM ET

USD/CAD: After Interbank Rate release on July 29, 2020, 1.00 PM ET

For the USD/CAD pair, a weak uptrend is observed, with candles forming just around the 20-period Moving Average. After the interbank rate release, the pair shows the same weakness for the USD as observed with the EUR/USD and the GBP/USD.

Bottom Line

The interbank rate is a high-impact fundamental indicator in the forex market. The FOMC Statement, however, dampens its impact since it is focused on the future. It is therefore advisable for traders to avoid opening significant positions before this news release. Furthermore, reading the FOMC statement will help to gauge whether the Fed is hawkish or dovish about the future.

Tags Bank Rate, Education, Forex, Forex Fundamental Analysis, Forex Trading, Fundamental Analysis, Interbank Rate, Interest Rate, Interest Rates, Macro Economic Indicators, Macro Economics, trading

Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, August 21 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eyes in PMI Figures!

Post author By Ali B.
Post date 21 August, 2020
1 Comment on Daily F.X. Analysis, August 21 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eyes in PMI Figures!

On the news front, eyes will remain on the Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI figures from the Eurozone, U.K., and the United States. Almost all economic figures are expected to perform better than previous months, perhaps due to the lift of lockdown. Price action will depend upon any surprise changes in the PMI figures.

Economic Events to Watch Today

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

Today in the Asian trading hours, the EUR/USD currency pair has succeeded in stopping its Thursday’s losing streak and continues to gain positive traction just closer to 1.1900 level, mainly due to the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, triggered by the dismal U.S. Jobless Claims data. The upbeat market sentiment and on-going uncertainty surrounding the much-awaited U.S. fiscal stimulus also weighed on the safe-haven U.S. dollar and contributed to the currency pair gains.

Across the pond, the shared currency continues to gaining bullish traction as most of the investors believe that the European Union (E.U.) will reach an agreement on a coronavirus recovery package for its members in late July. This, in turn, the currency pair has been flashing green since the week start. On the contrary, the rising coronavirus cases in Germany and France turned out to be a major factor that kept the lid on any further gains in the currency pair.

As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.1882 and consolidates in the range between the 1.1856 – 1.1883. However, traders are cautious about placing any strong position ahead of German PMI. Moving on, the currency pair will likely put further bids if the preliminary German and Eurozone Markit manufacturing, services and composite PMI data for August blow past expectations on the day, this, in turn, bolstering hopes for faster economic recovery. On the contrary, the said, EUR/USD’ currency pair may face losses and revisit Thursday’s low of 1.18 if the German and Eurozone data prints below estimates.

However, this data is scheduled to release at 07:30 GMT, and it is anticipated that German Manufacturing PMI increased to 52.5 from July’s 51. But, the progress pace in the activity is expected to have increased in August. Likewise, the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI is anticipated to increase to 52.9 from 51.8. Thus, the above-forecast data will fuel recovery hopes and decrease the case for further monetary stimulus from the European Central Bank.

On the flip side, the data published by the U.S. showed that 1.106 million Americans declared unemployment benefits during the previous week, exceeding the anticipated 925,000 claims and last Thursday’s 971,000 figure. As a result, the U.S. dollar failed to maintain its previous Fed-gains and edged lower.

In the meantime, the U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi stated, This time seems not right for a smaller coronavirus relief bill.” The Democrat earlier showed a willingness to cut the aid package amount demand in half to renew hopes of America’s much-awaited stimulus. But as of now, the uncertainty remains on the cards amid the policymaker’s differences.

As in result, the broad-based U.S. dollar reported losses on the day as the possibility of the U.S. Congress agreeing to a fiscal stimulus bill this month has weakened amid political differences, which eventually destroyed hopes for a quick U.S. economic recovery. As well as, the doubts over the U.S. economy recover further fueled after the dismal US Jobs data. However, the losses in the U.S. dollar helped the currency pair to stay higher. Whereas, the U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the USD against a bucket of other currencies was down, inching down 0.09% to 92.692 by 10:13 PM ET (3:13 AM GMT).

At the coronavirus front, the figures of coronavirus cases increasing day by day. Whereas, the total number of cases crossed more than 231,284 figures so far, as per the report of German disease and epidemic control center, Robert Koch Institute (RKI). Although, these fears have been playing a negative role to cap further gains in the currency pair.

The market traders will keep their eyes on the German and Eurozone Markit manufacturing, services, and composite PMI Data. As well as, the headlines concerning the US COVID-19 aid package, virus figures, and Sino-American trade can also impact the pair’s movement.

Daily Technical Levels

Support	Pivot	Resistance
1.1817	1.1843	1.1884
1.1775		1.1911
1.1749		1.1952

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD pair has violated the sideways range of 1.1853 to 1.1830, and now it’s heading higher towards the next technical resistance level of 1.1915 level. On the lower side, the EUR/USD is likely to gain support at the 1.1860 level. Below 1.1860, the next support is likely to be found around the 1.1832 level. The bullish bias remains dominant today.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.32135 after placing a high of 1.32246 and a low of 1.30642. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. The Pound continued its strength against the U.S. dollar on Thursday amid increased hopes that the U.K. and E.U. will find a breakthrough in the latest round of post-Brexit talks that will conclude on Friday.

Few investors were betting that both sides will be able to find common ground on the key sticking issues, including access to British fishing waters and the level playing field rules, as the latest round of talks is set to end on Friday. The level playing field rules consist of a set of standard rules to ensure firms in the U.K. and E.U. compete on an equal footing, and Britain has been arguing against it.

The rise in GBP/USD pair on Thursday was followed by the increased optimism around the Brexit talks and the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness amid poor than expected U.S. jobless claims.

Investor’s focus has now shifted more towards the final round of Brexit talks in September, to see whether a deal could be reached. E.U. Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier has said that an agreement should be agreed by October to allow the E.U. to ratify the deal.

It has already clear that if no deal was agreed between U.K. and E.U., then U.K. will follow the WTO terms, which will be harsh than the current trade agreement that will lapse at the end of Brexit transition period on December 31.

However, earlier Prime Minister Boris Johnson decided against extending the transition period beyond the end of 2020 and signaled optimism that a deal could be reached by the fall, it triggered bullish momentum in the GBP/USD pair.

On the U.S. front, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index declined to 17.2 from the expected 21.0 and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The Unemployment Claims from last week also rose to 1106K from the expected 930K and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The weak U.S. dollar added gains in the GBP/USD pair and closed the day with a strong bullish candle.

On Friday, the Retail Sales and Public Net Borrowings from Britain, along with the Consumer Confidence and Manufacturing & Services PMI data, will release that will impact on GBP/USD pair. The more important release will be the result of the latest Brexit talks with E.U. that will strongly impact the GBP/USD pair. From the U.S. side, the Flash manufacturing & Services PMI data will remain under focus by investors.

Daily Technical Levels

Support	Pivot	Resistance
1.3108	1.3167	1.3271
1.3005		1.3329
1.2946		1.3433

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On Friday, the GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.3250 level, and the pair was trading in between an ascending triangle pattern that has now been violated. The triangle pattern was extending resistance at 1.3125 level, and above this, the next resistance is likely to be found around 1.3267 level. At the same time, the support stays at 1.3186 and 1.3137 level. Bullish bias seems dominant today.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 106.111 after placing a high of 106.150 and 105.101. Overall the movement of the USD/JPY pair remained bullish throughout the day. After falling for three consecutive days, the USD/JPY pair rose sharply and reached above 106.00 level on Wednesday amid broad-based U.S. dollar strength.

The FOMC minutes of the July meeting revealed that policymakers supported cap bond yields and made it unlikely for the Fed to introduce yield curve control in September. In response to Fed minutes, the U.S. Dollar Index rose above 93 levels, and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose about 0.9% and supported the U.S. dollar that ultimately gave strength to USD/JPY pair on Wednesday.

The sharp rally in USD/JPY was also supported by the comments of a senior Trump administration official who said that a new stimulus relief bill of small amount than $1 trillion or $3 trillion could be agreed upon and provide strength to the economy. He proposed a new bill of $500 billion as the previously expected stimulus bills proposed by Republicans & Democrats was failed to reach a consensus. This new bill also raised hopes and supported the U.S. dollar that pushed USD/JPY prices further on the upside.

On the data front, at 04:50 GMT, the Core Machinery Orders in June from Japan declined to -7.6% from the previous 1.7% and fell short of the expected 2.1% and weighed on Japanese Yen that added strength to the advancing USDJPY pair. Whereas, the Trade Balance from Japan showed a deficit of -0.03T against the forecasted -0.44T and the previous -0.41T and supported Japanese Yen.

On the other hand, the US-China relations were further dented after Donald Trump revealed the main reason behind the delay in review meetings between U.S. & Chinese officials on August 15 on Wednesday. According to Trump, he was furious over Beijing’s handling of coronavirus situations and disturbing the global economy, and that was the reason he canceled the review meeting. He said that he did not want to meet China for now.

The negative statement a day after blacklisting the Chinese telecom Huawei group in America escalated the tensions further and weighed on risk sentiment. This helped the U.S. dollar gain strength against its safe-haven status and raised the USD/JPY pair in the market.

Mark Meadows, the White House Chief of Staff, informed on Wednesday that no new high-level talks were rescheduled between the U.S. & China as two sides were already in touch regarding the implementation of the phase-one trade deal. This raised the risk sentiment and weighed on Japanese Yen that ultimately added gains in USD/JPY pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support	Pivot	Resistance
105.6200	105.9200	106.1000
105.4300		106.4100
105.1300		106.5900

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY has violated the upward trendline support level of 106.345, as it fell sharply in the wake of increased safe-haven appeal in the market. At the movement, the USD/JPY pair is holding below 50 periods EMA, while the RSI and MACD are in support of bearish trend. The recent candle is closing above 105.344 level, suggesting strong odds of bullish correction until 106. However, the violation of 106 can lead to USD/JPY prices towards the 104.600 support level. Good luck!

Tags Daily Brief, EURUSD, Forex, Forex Trading, Fundamental Analysis, GBPUSD, Support and Resistance, Technical Analysis, Technical Outlook, Trade Setup, trading, USDJPY

Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, August 21 – OMG Network Token Up Over 100% Today; Tether Moving 1 Billion USDT From Tron to Ethereum Blockchain

While most of the top cryptocurrencies took the day to consolidate or advance slightly, Ethereum tokens were the most volatile and moved up or down with much more intensity. Bitcoin is currently trading for $11,0835, which represents an increase of 0.56% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum gained 1.39% on the day, while XRP gained 1.01%.

While most of the top cryptocurrencies took the day to consolidate or advance slightly, Ethereum tokens were the most volatile and moved up or down with much more intensity. Bitcoin is currently trading for $11,835, which represents an increase of 0.56% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum gained 1.39% on the day, while XRP gained 1.01%.

Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

When taking a look at top100 cryptocurrencies, OMG Network gained 106.88% on the day, making it the most prominent daily gainer. 0x (48.58%) and Flexacoin (42.15%) also did great. On the other hand, Ren lost 14.05%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by Reserve Rights’ loss of 7.07% and Waves’ drop of 6.93%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s dominance level has decreased slightly and went under the 60% mark yet again, with its value currently at 59.74%. This value represents a 0.7% difference to the downside when compared to our last report.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The cryptocurrency market cap experienced a sharp increase in value over the course of the day. Its current value is $373.17 billion, which represents an increase of $9.41 billion when compared to our previous report.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

After a failed breakout of the ascending triangle, Bitcoin’s price started moving down sharply towards $11,630. The move, as we noted in our previous articles, stopped there. Bitcoin spent the past 24 hours mostly consolidating after a brief moment of bullish presence, which brought its price above $11,800 levels.

This move towards the upside, no matter how small it is, shows that Bitcoin is in a great spot at the moment, and it would take a lot to shake it out of this extremely bearish mid-term position.

BTC traders should be looking for a trade above $12,000, or after the push towards it fails.

BTC/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical factors:

Price is at its 50-period EMA and below its 21-period EMA
Price slightly below its middle band
RSI is neutral (48.45)
Volume is average (descending)

Key levels to the upside Key levels to the downside

1: $12,015 1: $11,630

2: $12,300 2: $11,460

3: $12,900 3: $11,090

Ethereum

Ethereum spent the day struggling at the $415 level, as the fight for whether it will end up above or below the level is still continuing. The second-largest crypto by market cap recovered from its drop to $395 after hitting a semi-descending line, which acted as support/resistance since Aug 5.

This fight for $415 clearly shows the fight between two mindsets: bulls who are extremely bullish when it comes to DeFi and everything related, and bears which are scared of the skyrocketing ETH transaction fees as well as of the ICO scenario that happened around 2017.

Ethereum traders should wait for ETH to establish itself above or below $415 before trading.

ETH/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical Factors:

Price is currently at its 21-period and its 50-period EMA
Price is at its middle band
RSI is neutral (47.15)
Volume is slightly below average

Key levels to the upside Key levels to the downside

1: $415 1: $400

2: $445 2: $361

3: $496 3: $340

Ripple

XRP’s chart looks a lot like BTC’s chart in the past couple of days. The third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap stopped moving towards the downside after hitting $0.285, which held up quite nicely. XRP then got a small boost towards the $0.29, where it is now consolidating.

With both 21-period and 50-period moving averages right above the price, XRP would require a strong bullish initiative in order to move towards $0.31, which (at the moment) seems unlikely.

Traders can look for an entry within the range between $0.285 and $0.31.

XRP/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical factors:

Price is currently below the 21-period and 50-period EMA
Price is slightly below the middle band
RSI is neutral (46.15)
Volume is descending (approaching average)

Key levels to the upside Key levels to the downside

1: $0.31 1: $0.285

2: $0.32 2: $0.266

3: $0.332 3:$0.2454

Tags bitcoin, BTC, Crypto, Crypto Trading, cryptocurrency, Daily Brief, ETH, Ethereum, Fundamental Analysis, Ripple, Technical Analysis, trading, XRP

Forex Fundamental Analysis

How The ‘Corruption Rank’ Data Impacts A Nation’s Currency

Post author By Reddy Shyam Shankar
Post date 20 August, 2020
No Comments on How The ‘Corruption Rank’ Data Impacts A Nation’s Currency

Introduction

Corruption can very well be defined as seeking private gain through abuse of power that one has been entrusted. The biting effects of corruptions include:

Erosion of confidence in the monetary and economic system;
Hampering economic development;
Increase in current account deficits; and
Encouraging the growth of shadow economies

So, how does this affect a country’s currency valuation? Well, through GDP, of course! This correlation is explained in detail later on in this article.

Understanding Corruption Rank

Corruption rank is the ranking of countries worldwide based on how the countries’ public sector has been corrupted. It measures the extent of corruption by politicians and other public officials. Due to its nature of illegality and secrecy, there is no single indicator that directly measures the levels and extent of corruption in each country. The best measure of corruption rank is the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) published by Transparency International.

The CPI is used to rate the countries based on perceived levels of corruption on a sliding scale from 0 to 100. A score of 0 is considered the most corrupt. A country with a score of 100 is considered to be clean of corruption. The CPI is constructed based on the opinions of business executives, public policy experts, financial journalists, and risk analysts globally.

The CPI is a result of 13 rigorous assessments and surveys on wide-ranging issues on corruption collated by several reputable institutions around the world, including the World Bank and African Development Bank. These assessments and surveys are conducted in the two years preceding the publication. They incorporate a combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis which captures the manifestations of corruption, including:

Misuse of public resources;
Effectiveness of the prosecution of corruption cases by the judiciary;
The extent of bribery by firms and individuals to secure contracts, avoid taxations and payment of duties;
Bureaucratic loopholes that foster corruption; and
The effectiveness of anti-corruption measures implemented by the government

How Corruption Rank Impacts the Economy

To better understand how the corruption rank of a country influences its currency, we first must understand how corruption impacts a country’s economy.

Corruption inherently impacts the economy negatively. A specific study by the World Bank shows that the GDP per capita in countries with low CPI is about 60% less than for countries with a higher CPI. The negative effects of corruption are:

Overreliance on debt

Corruption results in a significant leakage in the budget. A country is thus forced to rely on debt, usually denominated in foreign currency. The interest payment leads to a higher share of revenue allocated to repayment in the short term instead of economic investments. This higher share of foreign borrowing also results in the local currency crisis.

Inefficiencies in the allocation of resources

Through bribery, the allocation of tenders is usually awarded to individuals and firms who are not qualified. As a result, most public projects are not completed, and the benefits to the economy foregone.

Creation of a shadow economy

Corruption facilitates the growth of several firms that avoid official registrations. As a result, the economy experiences a deficit in terms of taxation, import, and export duties payable. Consequently resulting in low GDP.

The exit of investors

Corruption leads to investors pulling their businesses out. This exit leads to reduced economic activities and accompanied by job losses.

A lower share of foreign direct investment (FDI)

Foreign investors often shun countries with rampant corruption since they seek a fair operating environment. Donor agencies such as IMF and World Bank also reduce their total outflows into such countries. Therefore, the recipient countries’ economy fails to benefit from such investments, which would have a multiplier effect within the economy. Also, because FDI is usually denominated in foreign currency, it usually boosts the recipient countries’ currency strength.

Reduced innovation

Corrupt countries offer very little protection in terms of patents and copyright protection. The lack of legal protection framework results in massive exportation of technology from such countries, thus denying the local economies the growth benefits.

Increase in current account deficits

Corruption creates a disincentive to invest in the local manufacturing and production industries. Apart from the drop in job creations, this leads to overreliance on importation to fill the local demand.

There is a direct inverse relationship between corruption levels in a country and its currency. The inverse correlation is because countries with higher perceptions of corruption have poor economic performance, while those with lower perceptions of corruption have better economic performance.

Consequently, a change in the corruption ranking is often accompanied by a corresponding change in the country’s GDP. In 2019, Sweden dropped in ranking from position 3 to position 4; this was coincided by a 6.37% drop in its annual GDP. During the same period, Malaysia ranked position 51 from 61, a period which coincided with a 1.68% annual GDP growth.

Source: ResearchGate

How Corruption Rank Impacts a Currency

Although it is a rarely observed indicator, forex market investors should keep an eye on the annual release of the corruption rank. Because the corruption rank is based on two years’ worth of data, it is evident that the corruption rank signifies the underlying fundamental changes in a country’s economy.

High levels of corruption typically tend to be accompanied by a deteriorating economy. It is a known fact that the strength and fluctuation of a country’s currency are tied to its economic performance. Therefore, this is accompanied by a reduction in the valuation of the currency in the forex market.

Any improvements in the rank could forebode that the economy has been performing better, which will be accompanied by a significant appreciation in the country’s currency. Conversely, a drop in the corruption rankings signifies a deterioration in the economic conditions, which will result in the long-term changes in the currency’s value.

Sources of Data

The corruption perceptions index and the corruption rank are released annually by Transparency international. The corruption perceptions index can be accessed here and the corruption rank here.

How Corruption Rank Release Affects The Forex Price Charts

The corruption rank published annually by Transparency International rarely moves the forex market. It is, however vital for the forex traders to keep an eye out for CPI rank. As we have already discussed in this article, the CPI provides crucial information about the conditions of the underlying fundamentals of a country’s economy. The corruption rank is released annually following a two-year assessment and analysis. The latest CPI data for 2019 ranking 198 countries was released on January 23, 2020. A highlight of the release can be found on the Transparency International’s website.

Below is a snapshot of the top and bottom performers. The legend indicates the level of corruption in the country.

In 209, the US fell in rankings by one position, from 22 to 23 out of the 198 countries that were ranked. The screengrab below shows this position.

EUR/USD: Before Corruption Rank release on January 23, 2020

On the above chart, we have plotted a 20-period Moving Average on the EUR/USD chart. As can be seen, the pair had been on a consistent downtrend on the four-hour candlestick pattern. This downtrend is evident since the candlesticks are trending below the 20-period Moving Average. This similar downtrend on the four-hour candlestick chart can be observed on GBP/USD and NZD/USD, as shown by the charts below.

AUD/USD: Before Corruption Rank release on January 23, 2020

NZD/USD: Before Corruption Rank release January 23, 2020

For long-term traders, the pattern offers a great opportunity to go short on the above pairs, since the prevailing downtrends would favor them. Let’s now see how the price responded to the release of the corruption rank by Transparency International.

EUR/USD: After Corruption Rank release on January 23, 2020

After the release of the corruption rank, a persistent downtrend in the EUR/USD pair can still be observed. As shown on the daily chart above, the EUR/USD pair had a bullish candle on January 23, 2020. This strength is even though the US dropped in the corruption rank. Its CPI score dropped from 71 in 2018 to a score of 69 in 2019.

However, against the AUD, the USD can be observed to have weakened momentarily. The pair later regained its bullish trends. It is worth noting that the momentary strength in the AUD is because Australia performed better in the corruption ranking by climbing one position, as shown by the snapshot below.

The chart below shows the daily price action of the AUD/USD pair after the news release.

AUD/USD: After Corruption Rank release on January 23, 2020

The USD weakened against the NZD after the release of the corruption ranking. This weakness can be attributed to the fact that New Zealand ranked first with a score of 87. This ranking is shown by the screengrab below.

As can be seen on the daily chart below, USD weakened against the NZD after the news release.

NZD/USD: After Corruption Rank release on January 23, 2020

Corruption rank can be seen to have some mild effects on the price action of the selected pairs, but not enough to alter to the trend observed before its release. Although most forex traders rarely observe it due to the annual nature of its release, corruption rank provides vital information about the underlying fundamentals of an economy. All the best!

Tags Corruption, Corruption Index, Corruption Rank, Education, Forex, forex analysis, Fundamental Analysis, fundamental indicators, Macro Economic Indicators, trading

Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, August 20 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Jobless Claims In Focus!

Post author By Ali B.
Post date 20 August, 2020
1 Comment on Daily F.X. Analysis, August 20 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Jobless Claims In Focus!

The news site of the market is likely to offer high impact events from the U.S. while the major focus will remain on the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Unemployment Claims. U.S. dollar may exhibit mixed bias until the release of these events as Philly fed manufacturing is expected to perform badly, and the Jobless claims are likely to perform well.

Economic Events to Watch Today

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair has stopped its previous day bearish streak and recovered from the 27-month lows amid speculative interests and strong bond auction. However, the recent declines in the currency pair from near two-year highs of 1.1956 were mainly directed by a broad-based U.S. dollar recovery. As of now, the broad-based Us dollar has erased some of its gains but still hovering on the bullish track. This, in turn, the currency pair became able to put some modest bids and stop its previous losing streak.

On the EUR side, the ongoing rise in new coronavirus cases in Spain, Germany, France, and Italy has been fueling the fears over the second-wave of the virus across Europe, which might put the shared currency under pressure and become the key factor that will cap any upside in the currency pair. At the moment, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.1843 and consolidating in the range between the 1.1831 – 1.1857. Moving on, the traders seem cautious to place any strong bids ahead of U.S. Jobless Claims and ECB minutes.

The broad-based U.S. dollar has many things to cheer on the day. Be it the weaker pace of surge in the COVID-19 cases from New York and Florida or hopes of the U.S. stimulus package, not to forget the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, which showed that the officials lacked support for the yield curve control, as one of the policy options. However, the broad-based U.S. dollar was being supported by all these things.

However, the ongoing worries about the growing coronavirus case in most places and worsened US-China relations also helped the U.S. dollar put the safe-haven bids. Despite the ongoing coronavirus (COVID-19) and Sino-American tensions, the U.S. President Donald Trump gave the latest warning during the daily press conference that the U.S. is going to announce punitive measures Iran. As per the keywords, “U.S. intends to restore nearly all U.N. sanctions on Iran.” In the meantime, the American Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also warned the Dragon Nation and Russia not to interfere in this matter to save Tehran as they did in the recent past. However, these lingering tension kept the market trading sentiment under pressure and provided support to the U.S. dollar as safe-haven status.

It is worth mentioning that the minutes from the July Fed meeting released Yesterday pushed back against additional measures like the yield curve control, under which the central bank targets a specific yield level at the short or long end of the curve. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve indicated that it would think about changing its monetary policy to stick to dynamic monetary policy for far extended than previously expected.

Across the pond, the intensifying coronavirus virus cases in Germany and France fueled the fears of fresh lockdowns in Europe’s biggest economies, which might weigh on the shared currency. As per the latest report, the reported coronavirus cases increased to 226,914, with a total of 9,243 deaths on Wednesday. Whereas, the cases raised by 1,510 in Germany on Wednesday against Tuesday +1,390. The death toll rose by 7, as per the German disease and epidemic control center report, Robert Koch Institute (RKI).

Looking forward, the market traders will keep their eyes on the U.S. Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey, and the European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting minutes, which is scheduled to release later today. The headlines concerning the US COVID-19 aid package, virus figures, and Sino-American trade will not lose its importance.

Daily Technical Levels

Support	Pivot	Resistance
1.1792	1.1873	1.1916
1.1749		1.1997
1.1668		1.2041

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD pair is trading in a sideways range of 1.1853 to 1.1830, and violation of this range can determine further trends in the market. On the higher side, the EUR/USD can trade bullish until 1.1885 level on the breakout of 1.1850. On the lower side, a breakout of the 1.1830 level can lead EUR/USD until the 1.1792 level.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.30986 after placing a high of 1.32670 and a low of 1.30934. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained bearish throughout the day. The GBP/USD pair lost all of its previous day gins and declined on Wednesday amid the broad-based U.S. dollar strength after the FOMC meeting minutes were released.

In the early daily session, the GBP/USD pair rose to its highest since last week of December 2019 on the back of better than expected macroeconomic data from the United Kingdom but failed to maintain gains and dropped below 1.310 level. The decline was backed by the sudden strength in the U.S. dollar after the Trump administration proposed another stimulus relief bill.

In the early trading session, the Consumer Price Index from Great Britain was released at 11:00 GMT that rose to 1% from the expected 0.6% and supported GBP. The year’s Core CPI also rose to 1.8% against the estimated 1.3% and the previous 1.4% and supported GBP. The Sterling was again supported after the release of PPI Input for July that surged to 1.8% from the forecasted 1.1%. In July, the PPI Output also rose from the expected 0.2% but remained flat with the previous 0.3%. The Raw-Material Price Index for the year from the U.K. increased to 1.6% from the previous 1.1% and exceeded the expectations of 1.2%. AT 13:30 GMT, the Housing Price Index for the year came in as 2.6%.

The positive and better than expected macroeconomic data from the U.K. gave strength to Pound that took the currency pair GBP/USD to its 8th month highest level at 1.32670. However, in the late trading session after the release of FOMC meeting minutes, the GBP/USD pair started to decline and lost all of its gains from Tuesday.

The minutes revealed that the FOMC was worried about the economic recovery, while some members of the committee suggested that to promote the economic recovery and achieve the 2% inflation target, additional accommodation was necessary.

Furthermore, as opposed to the $1 trillion or $3 trillion stimulus package, a new stimulus relief bill was proposed by the Trump administration on Wednesday of worth $500 Billion. It came in as the consensus on previously recommended bills by Democrats and Republicans has not been achieved yet. This raised hopes and U.S. dollar bars in the market and added additional losses in the GBP/USD currency pair.

Meanwhile, the Brexit talks have been resumed, and outlook of talks still suggested differences as several media reports suggested that U.K. wanted British truckers to be able to pick up and drop off goods both inside E.U. countries and between them. But Brussels has denied as they consider the proposal fundamentally unbalanced, this also weighed on GBP/USD pair on Wednesday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support	Pivot	Resistance
1.3037	1.3153	1.3212
1.2978		1.3328
1.2862		1.3388

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.3250 level, and the pair was trading in between an ascending triangle pattern that has now been violated. The triangle pattern was extending resistance at 1.3125 level, and above this, the next resistance is pretty much likely to be found around 1.3267 level. At the same time, the support stays at 1.3186 and 1.3137 level. Bullish bias seems dominant today.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The FOMC minutes of the July meeting revealed that policymakers supported to cap bond yields and made it unlikely for the Fed to introduce yield curve control in September. In response to Fed minutes, the U.S. Dollar Index rose above 93 levels, and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose about 0.9% and supported the U.S. dollar that ultimately gave strength to USD/JPY pair on Wednesday.

On the other hand, the US-China relations were further dented after Donald Trump revealed the main reason behind the delay in review meetings between U.S. & Chinese officials on August 15 on Wednesday. According to Trump, he was very angry over Beijing’s handling of coronavirus situations and disturbing the global economy, and that was the reason he canceled the review meeting. He said that he did not want to meet China for now.

The negative statement a day after blacklisting the Chinese telecom Huawei group in America escalated the tensions further and weighed on risk sentiment. This helped the U.S. dollar to gain strength against its safe-haven status and raised the USD/JPY pair in the market.

Daily Technical Levels

Support	Pivot	Resistance
105.4100	105.7800	106.4600
104.7200		106.8400
104.3500		107.5200

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

Tags Daily Brief, EURUSD, Fundamental Analysis, GBPUSD, Support and Resistance, Technical Analysis, Technical Outlook, Trade Setup, trading, USDJPY

Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, August 20 – ETH Plummets Due To Skyrocketing Transaction Fees; $12,000 Level Too Strong For Bitcoin

Post author By Ilija Rankovic
Post date 20 August, 2020
1 Comment on Daily Crypto Review, August 20 – ETH Plummets Due To Skyrocketing Transaction Fees; $12,000 Level Too Strong For Bitcoin

While most of the top cryptos had a slightly red day, Ethereum tokens mostly did great. Bitcoin is currently trading for $11,732, which represents a decrease of 0.25% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum lost 1.26% on the day, while XRP lost 1.24%.

Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

When taking a look at top100 cryptocurrencies, OMG Network gained 26.67% on the day, making it the most prominent daily gainer. yearn.finance (20.13%) and Qtum (10.04%) also did great. On the other hand, Balancer lost 19.84%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by Compound’s loss of 9.50% and Waves’ drop of 8,97%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s dominance level has increased slightly and passed the 60% mark, with its value currently at 60.44%. This value represents a 0.77% difference to the upside when compared to our last report.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The cryptocurrency market cap experienced a slight increase in value over the course of the day. Its current value is $364.76 billion, which represents an increase of $0.56 billion when compared to our previous report.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

After a brief break of the $12,000 level, Bitcoin fell down and is controlled by BTC bears for the second day in a row. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap has moved towards the $11,630 support level (as we said in our previous article) and tried to test its strength. The level held up, and Bitcoin is now consolidating right above it.

This bear push was caused by several factors, but mostly because of the immense resistance at around $12,000 and the challenges Ethereum faces with its incredibly high transaction fees (Bitcoin acts as a “representative” to all the cryptos, so it affects others, but is also affected by others).

BTC traders should be looking for a trade when Bitcoin breaks $11,630 to the downside or pushes towards $12,000 again.

BTC/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical factors:

Price is below its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
Price is between its lower and middle band
RSI is slightly tilted towards the oversold area (41.97)
Volume is average

Key levels to the upside Key levels to the downside

1: $12,015 1: $11,630

2: $12,300 2: $11,460

3: $12,900 3: $11,090

Ethereum

Even though Ethereum’s social sentiment is still extremely high due to the craze over DeFi, it is a fact that ETH’s transaction fees have been skyrocketing as the demand for DeFi increased. This fact, along with Bitcoin not being able to break the $12,000 mark, caused the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap to drop below its $415 support level (now resistance). The drop stopped around $400 and changed direction, trying to retake its previous highs. However, the $415 resistance level confirmed its strength, leaving ETH below it.

Ethereum traders should look for a trade when ETH breaks $415 to the upside.

ETH/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical Factors:

Price is currently below its 21-period and its 50-period EMA
Price is slightly above its lower band
RSI is descending (39.54) and approaching oversold levels
Volume is average

Key levels to the upside Key levels to the downside

1: $415 1: $400

2: $445 2: $361

3: $496 3: $340

Ripple

XRP has had quite a bad day, as it essentially nullified any previous moves towards the upside. The third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap dropped to $0.285 levels (and even below it at one point). While the level held up and secured XRP’s position above it, for the time being, XRP does not look like it will make another move towards the upside soon.

Traders can look for a trade when XRP breaks $0.285 to the downside.

XRP/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical factors:

Price is currently below the 21-period and 50-period EMA
Price is slightly above the lower band
RSI is neutral (40.49)
Volume is descending (though it is slightly elevated)

Key levels to the upside Key levels to the downside

1: $0.31 1: $0.285

2: $0.32 2: $0.266

3: $0.332 3:$0.2454

Tags bitcoin, BTC, Crypto, Crypto Trading, cryptocurrency, Daily Brief, ETH, Ethereum, Fundamental Analysis, Ripple, Technical Analysis, trading, XRP

Forex Fundamental Analysis

What Should You Know About ‘Job Vacancies’ as a Macro Economic Indicator

Post author By Reddy Shyam Shankar
Post date 19 August, 2020
No Comments on What Should You Know About ‘Job Vacancies’ as a Macro Economic Indicator

Introduction

Job vacancies are a fundamental macroeconomic indicator. This article defines in detail what job vacancies are and further shows how the job vacancies affect the economy of a given country, and consequently, its currency.

What are Job Vacancies

Job vacancies are the number of new gainful employment positions that are created within an economy at a given point in time. In order to establish the number of job vacancies, surveys are usually done on employers about their businesses, recruitment, and job openings.

Job vacancies are considered if: there is a specific open position with work available for it; the job could commence within 30 days of advertisement whether or not a suitable candidate is hired, and the employers are actively recruiting workers for that particular job.

Purpose of Job Vacancies Statistics

The job vacancies statistics are meant to provide information about the level and structure of labor demand. The job vacancies statistics indicate the unfulfilled demand for labor and the desirable skills that are sought by the employers within an economy. As such, the job vacancies statistics provide the central banks and governments with an opportunity to analyze the trends in the labor market. The statistics can also be used to assess the structural analysis of the economy in terms of business cycles.

Job Vacancies as an Economic Indicator

Employers within an economy are continually looking to hire new workers to fill positions in their organizations. As such, job vacancies are a leading macroeconomic indicator of unemployment and employment rates. Thus, the more the job vacancies are available, the more the number of people who stand a chance to be gainfully employed and thus, leading to a reduction in the unemployment rate.

Conversely, fewer job vacancies imply that fewer people seeking employment get to be gainfully employed hence low employment rate in the economy. Thus, higher job vacancies signify an expanding economy while a reduction in the job vacancies implies that the economy is contracting or heading for a full-employment level. In this case, higher job vacancies result in appreciating the strength of a country’s currency while lower than expected job vacancies result in a drop in the currency value.

The statistics on job vacancies can also be used in the analysis of business cycles. The number of job vacancies is expected to be on a constant increase during periods of expansion because businesses are hiring more workers due to increased economic activities. At peak periods, the number of job vacancies is marginally decreased and remain plateaued since most businesses have achieved optimal operations. During the periods of contraction, the number of job vacancies is expected to be on a constant decrease due to a rapid reduction in the economic activity within a country, hence lower GDP output.

Thus, the statistics on job vacancies can be accurately used to predict the periods of economic boom and recessions. During the global economic crisis, the number of job vacancies in the US decreased from 4.4 mn in the 1st quarter of 2008 to 2.45 million in the fourth quarter of 2019, a period of recession. In the recovery period, the number of job vacancies increased from 2.72 million in the first quarter of 2010 to 4.92 million in the fourth quarter of 2014.

How Job Vacancies Affect the Economy

By itself, job vacancies signify the level of economic activity within an economy. A higher and increasing number of job vacancies signify that the economic activities within a country are increasing hence the need for more workers. Similarly, a constant reduction in the number of job vacancies available implies that the economic activities in a country are cooling down, hence the need for fewer workers. More so, a reduction or plateauing in the number of job vacancies available could imply that the economy is heading for full employment.

Graph: 2019 January to December Scatter plot of US Job Vacancies and Real GDP.

Source: OECD Statistics and US BEA

As seen from the above scatter plot, from January 2019 to December 2019, there was a direct positive correlation between the change in the job vacancies in the US and the change in real GDP.

Job Vacancies and Impact on the Currency

As already discussed, job vacancies serve as a leading indicator for employment and unemployment levels. An increasing number of job vacancies implies that unemployment levels are bound to fall drastically. A steep fall in the unemployment rate, which is accompanied by a full rate of employment will result in higher inflation. The higher inflation is because the employers are competing to hire workers hence pushing up the wages at a faster rate. Increased rates of inflation will trigger the government and central banks to employ contractionary monetary policies aimed at keeping the inflation rate in check.

When the central banks increase the interest rate, it is aimed at reducing the rate of inflation by making borrowing expensive while encouraging the culture of savings. Thus, for forex market traders, they can anticipate a hike in the interest rate levels when there is a consistent increase in the number of job vacancies. The higher interest rate has the effect of increasing a country’s currency valuation.

Conversely, a constant reduction in the number of job vacancies, which comes after a period of a sustained increase in the total number of job vacancies, implies that an overheated economy is cooling down. An overheated economy is characterized by a prolonged period of positive economic development and higher levels of inflation brought about by increased wealth generation.

Thus, after the government has employed contractionary policies following the overheating of an economy, it can consequently be expected that this period will be accompanied by asset bubbles and an increase in the prices of assets. Higher wages means that most employers may not be able to hire more workers and let go of some of the existing employees, resulting in a sustained period of lower job vacancies.

The economy can be said to have plateaued and headed for a recession. For forex traders, a falling number of job vacancies could signify an impending dovish monetary policy meant to stimulate the economy and prevent excessive deflation. The dovish policies have a negative effect on a country’s currency.

How Job Vacancies News Release Affects The Price Charts

Although considered a low impact indicator, forex traders need to understand how job vacancies release impacts the price action. In the US, the job vacancies report is published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics by conducting Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).

JOLTS gives data on job openings, hires, and separations. The JOLTS report is released monthly about 40 days after the month ends. The latest, expected, and all historical figures are published on the Forex Factory website. The most recent release one can be found here. Job vacancies are advertised positions yet to be filled by the final business day of the month. A more in-depth review of the JOLTS numbers can be found at the Bureau of Labor Statistics website.

Below is a screengrab of the Forex Factory website. On the right, we can see a legend that indicates the level of impact the Fundamental Indicator has on the corresponding currency.

The snapshot below shows the change in the JOLTS numbers. In the latest release, the number of job openings increased on a month on month between May and June 2020 from 5.37 million to 5.89 million. The increase was more than the 5.30 million forecasted by analysts.

Now, let’s understand how this news release impacted the Forex price charts.

EUR/USD: Before JOLTS release August 10, 2020

As seen on the chart above, we have plotted a 20-period moving average on the EUR/USD chart, which shows that the pair is on a strong downtrend. The steady downtrend is also evident from the fact that the candlesticks are just below the Moving Average. On the 15 minute timeframe before the release, between 1100 and 1330 GMT, the market is on a constant uptrend. This uptrend can also be observed in AUD/USD and NZD/USD pairs, as shown by the charts below.

AUD/USD: Before JOLTS release August 10, 2020

NZD/USD: Before JOLTS release August 10, 2020

It is evident that in such a period, going “long” in the market offers the best opportunity to take advantage of this short-term uptrend. However, since the general market trend is downward, we highly recommend following this trend.

EUR/USD: After JOLTS release August 10, 2020, 1400 GMT

After the release of the better than expected JOLTS numbers, there is a consistent downtrend on the EUR/USD. The mere increase in the number of job openings triggered the USD strength against other currency pairs. It is worth noting that the release of the JOLTS numbers was strong enough to reverse the immediate uptrend seen immediately before the release.

The same reversal to a downtrend after news release can be observed for the AUD/USD and NZD/USD pairs as well. This trend is shown in the charts below.

AUD/USD: After JOLTS release August 10, 2020, 1400 GMT

NZD/USD: After JOLTS release August 10, 2020, 1400 GMT

The positive job vacancies news had a significant impact on the strength of USD against other currencies. This strength is because the better than expected job openings signify that the US economy is on a recovery path following the effects of the Coronavirus pandemic.

Tags Education, Employment, Forex, Forex Trading, Fundamental Analysis, Fundamental Drivers, Job Vacancies, Jobs, Macro Economic Indicators

Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, August 19 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eyes on FOMC Meeting Minutes!

Post author By Ali B.
Post date 19 August, 2020
1 Comment on Daily F.X. Analysis, August 19 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eyes on FOMC Meeting Minutes!

On the news front, the eyes will remain on the FOMC Meeting Minutes, which are not expected to show a rate change but will help us understand U.S. economic situation and policymakers’ stance on it. Besides, the Inflation reports from the U.K. and Eurozone are also likely to drive some price action during the European session today.

Economic Events to Watch Today

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.19308 after placing a high of 1.19654 and a low of 1.1863. Overall the movement of the EUR/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. The EUR/USD pair rose and extended its gains for the 6th consecutive day on Tuesday amid heavy selling pressure surrounding the greenback. The pair EUR/USD surged to its highest level since May 2018 amid broad-based U.S. dollar weakness as it followed the U.S. Treasury bond yields.

The U.S. Treasury bond yield on 10-year note lost more than 4% on the day, and the U.S. Dollar Index fell to its lowest daily close in more than two years at $92.30. Other than the persistent sell-off in the U.S. dollar, the single currency Euro found extra sustain in the solid appetite for riskier assets on the back of strong hopes over a moderate economic recovery in the region. It was increased by the news that a coronavirus vaccine could be out sooner than expected.

The risk sentiment was also supported by the investors’ confidence about the strength of the U.S. economic recovery, helped by strong earnings from retail giants Home Depot and Walmart.

The stocks were up on Tuesday as S&P 500 futures rose by 0.2%, the Dow futures contract rose by 0.4%, and while Nasdaq 100 futures moved up by 0.3%. According to a fund manager survey from Bank of America on Tuesday, showed that investors were at their most bullish trend on financial markets since February. The rise in the equity market helped increase risk appetite and EUR that is a riskier asset gained from such activity in the market.

On the data front, there was no macroeconomic data to be released from the Europe side; however, from the U.S. side, at 17:30 GMT, the Building Permits exceeded the expectations of 1.33M and came in as 1.50M in July in comparison of 1.26M of June and supported U.S. dollar. The Housing Starts also rose to 1.50M and exceeded the forecast of 1.23M and supported the U.S. dollar. Positive data from the U.S. side supported the dollar and limited the additional gains in EUR/USD pair on Tuesday.

On Wednesday, the Eurostat will release the inflation report for the Euro area. Markets expect the Core Consumer Price Inflation that excludes the volatile food and energy prices to remain flat at 1.2% on a yearly basis.

From the U.S. side, the FOMC meeting minutes will also be released to provide fresh clues about the movement of the EUR/USD pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support	Pivot	Resistance
1.1873	1.1920	1.1975
1.1818		1.2022
1.1772		1.2077

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD pair has already violated the resistance level of 1.1912 level, which is now working as a support. On the 4 hour timeframe, the pair is supported by an upward channel at 1.1915, while the resistance stays at 1.1962 level. Bullish bias seems dominant, and it may lead the EUR/USD prices towards the 1.1998 level today. The RSI, MACD, and 50 EMA are all in support of buying trends.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.32373 after placing a high of 1.32496 and a low of 1.30924. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained strongly bullish. The GBP/USD pair continued to extend gains and rose for 4th consecutive day on Tuesday on the back of a combination of factors. The uncertainty over the next round of U.S. stimulus aid to support the U.S. economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic has depressed the U.S. dollar. The falling U.S. Treasury bond yields further weighed on the already declining greenback and added gains in the GBP/USD pair.

The Sterling hit 8-months high on Tuesday as a new round of Brexit talks began, and the U.K. still believes that it can agree on a post-Brexit trade deal with the E.U. next month. On Tuesday ahead of the Brexit talks, a European Commission spokesman said that a deal would need to be agreed on by October. On the other hand, Mr. Barnier said that this date required an agreement to be ratified before the U.K.’s current post-Brexit transition period ends in December.

After the last round of negotiations in London, Barnier accused the U.K. of not showing willingness to break the deadlock over difficult issues. In response, David Frost replied that the E.U. had offered to break the deadlock but failed to honor the fundamental principles that the U.K. had repeatedly made clear.

On the data side, at 17:30 GMT, the Building Permits from the United States was increased to 1.50M from the forecasted 1.33M in July, and the Housing Starts also rose to 1.50 M from the expected 1.23M and supported U.S. dollar. The economic figures from the U.S. were mostly ignored by the investors as the focus was all shifted towards the new round of Brexit talks.

However, the U.S. dollar was weak across the board on Tuesday as the U.S. Dollar Index collapsed to its lowest level in more than two years at 92.28 and was having a tough time recovering. This added pressure on the greenback and added gains in the GBP/USD pair on Tuesday.

However, the losses in the U.S. dollar helped the currency pair to take bids on the day.

Daily Technical Levels

Support	Pivot	Resistance
1.3136	1.3193	1.3291
1.3037		1.3349
1.2980		1.3447

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.3250 level, and the pair was trading in between an ascending triangle pattern that has now been violated. The triangle pattern was extending resistance at 1.3125 level, and above this, the next resistance is pretty much likely to be found around 1.3267 level. At the same time, the support stays at 1.3186 and 1.3137 level. Bullish bias seems dominant today.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 105.407 after placing a high of 106.050 and a low of 105.281. Overall the movement of the USD/JPY pair remained bearish throughout the day. The USD/JPY pair moved to a fresh 2-week lowest level around 105.20 regions after the U.S. dollar selling pressure picked up pace during the late session.

The currency pair witnessed some strong follow-through selling for the third consecutive session and extended its bearish slide from 107.00 level. The downfall in USD/JPY pair was exclusively sponsored by the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness under pressure due to impasse over the next round of U.S. fiscal stimulus measures.

The additional pressure on the U.S. dollar was exerted by the declining U.S. Treasury bond yields that undermined the already weak sentiment across the greenback. The U.S. Treasury bond yield on the 10-year note fell by 2.8% on Tuesday that weighed on the U.S. dollar.

Apart from the U.S. Treasury, the escalating tensions between the U.S. & China, drove some safe-haven flows towards the Japanese Yen that further added in the downward momentum of USD/JPY pair on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the positive opening in the U.S. equity markets failed to impress the bullish traders, and the pair USD/JPY continued moving in the downward direction and closed its day near the monthly low that was set on August 6.

On the data front, at 01:00 GMT, the TIC Long-Term Purchases for June exceeded the forecast of 108.0B and came in as 113.0B and supported the U.S. dollar. At 17:30 GMT, the Building Permits from the U.S. rose to 1.50M against the projected 1.33Mand the Housing starts rose to 1.50M from the projected 1.23Mand supported U.S. dollar that helped limit the additional losses in pair.

There was no news regarding the date of the review of the phase-one trade deal between both nations on the US-China front. It is expected that the review will be published after the targets of U.S. purchases by China will be met.

As per the deal, China has to increase its purchases of U.S. farm and manufactured products, energy, and services by $200 billion over the next two years. So far, China has made imports of products from the U.S. worth about $40.2 billion that is less than 50%. China still has far to go to meet the requirement as it was affected by the pandemic induced lockdowns; however, ever since the lockdown has been eased, China’s imports have increased. U.S. officials have said that they were satisfied with the trade deal progress so far.

On the negative side, the blacklisting of Huawei’s telecom group on Yesterday raised concerns regarding the escalated tensions between China & the U.S. and supported the bearish trend in the USD/JPY pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support	Pivot	Resistance
105.1100	105.5900	105.9000
104.8000		106.3800
104.3100		106.6900

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

Tags Daily Brief, EURUSD, Forex, Forex Trading, Fundamental Analysis, GBPUSD, Support and Resistance, Technical Analysis, Technical Outlook, trading, USDJPY

Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, August 19 – Cryptos Heavily in the Red, YFI Token Breaks $11,000 and Approaches BTC’s Price Level

Post author By Ilija Rankovic
Post date 19 August, 2020
1 Comment on Daily Crypto Review, August 19 – Cryptos Heavily in the Red, YFI Token Breaks $11,000 and Approaches BTC’s Price Level

Almost every single cryptocurrency in the top100 was in the red today after Bitcoin broke $12,000 to the downside. Bitcoin is currently trading for $11,685, which represents a decrease of 4.7% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum lost 5.56% on the day, while XRP lost 9.4%.

Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

When talking about top100 cryptocurrencies, yearn.finance gained 19.51% on the day, making it the most prominent daily gainer. THETA (17.62%) and Swipe (17.28%) also did great. On the other hand, Numeraire lost 10.95%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by BitTorrent’s loss of 10.14% and Fetch.ai’s drop of 9.94%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s dominance level has increased slightly (even though it is still under the 60% mark), with its value currently at 59.77%. This value represents a 0.13% difference to the upside when compared to our last report.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The cryptocurrency market cap experienced a decrease in value over the course of the day. Its current value is $364.20 billion, which represents a decrease of $20 billion when compared to our previous report.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

After finally breaking $12,000 with confidence, Bitcoin is now falling hard below it (click on the arrow of the image). The largest cryptocurrency by market cap is dropping below $11,700 at the moment on bearish momentum. If the cryptocurrency manages to break below the 11,600 level, the next target will be 11,087. Right now, it is heavily oversold, so we can also expect a bounce back to near $12,000.

BTC traders should look for a trade after the cryptocurrency decides on whether it will end up above or below $11,600, as this is a strong support level.

BTC/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical factors:

Price is below its 50-period EMA and below its 21-period EMA
Price is below its lower band.
RSI is dropping (34) and approaching the oversold area
Volume is above average

Key levels to the upside Key levels to the downside

1: $12,015 1: $11,630

2: $12,300 2: $11,460

3: $12,900 3: $11,090

Ethereum

Ethereum’s social sentiment is still on the rise with the increased interest in DeFi. Even though the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap is losing heavily in the past 24 hours, the $400 support level should hold, and ETH is (for the time being) safe above it. The next move Ethereum makes will most likely be caused by Bitcoin’s move, as the largest cryptocurrency by market cap is preparing an explosive move towards (most likely) the upside. That, though, should wait a bit, since cryptos are still under selling pressure.

Traders should look for a trade when ETH regains a higher and steady volume.

ETH/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical Factors:

Price is currently below its 21-period and its 50-period EMA
Price is below its lower B.B.
RSI is descending (36) approaching oversold levels
Volume is average

Key levels to the upside Key levels to the downside

1: $445 1: $415

2: $496 2: $400

3: $361

Ripple

XRP’s bold move towards the upside, which came after announcing that its company (Ripple) will focus its business model on the XRP token rather than using it as a side solution, got nullified. The third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap dropped below the $0.31 level and as low as $0.29 (which is where it is at now).

Traders can look for a trade after XRP moves above or below its immediate support/resistance levels, or within the current trading level.

XRP/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical factors:

Price is currently below the 21-period and 50-period EMA
Price is below the lower B.B.
RSI is dropping (38.6)
Volume increased in the last hours

Key levels to the upside Key levels to the downside

1: $0.32 1: $0.31

2: $0.332 2: $0.285

3:$0.266

Tags bitcoin, BTC, Crypto, Crypto Trading, cryptocurrency, Daily Brief, ETH, Ethereum, Fundamental Analysis, Ripple, Technical Analysis, trading, XRP

Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, August 18 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Boosted Safe-Haven Plays!

Post author By Ali B.
Post date 18 August, 2020
1 Comment on Daily F.X. Analysis, August 18 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Boosted Safe-Haven Plays!

On the news front, the market isn’t expected to offer any major or high impact economic event until Wednesday. Therefore, the eyes will remain on the COVID19 cases and U.S. FOMC meeting minutes, which are coming out tomorrow to drive further price action in the market.

Economic Events to Watch Today

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD has managed to maintain its previous day winning streak and taking further bids just below the 1.1900 level while representing 25% gains on the day mainly due to the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, triggered by the on-going uncertainty surrounding the much-awaited U.S. fiscal stimulus.

On the other hand, the US-EU trade concerns turned bitter as the U.S. keeps increasing the hardships for the E.U. goods, which eventually becomes the key factor that capped further upside momentum for the currency pair. In the meantime, the rising coronavirus cases in Germany also turned out to be a major factor that kept the traders cautious. As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.1893 and consolidates in the range between the 1.1865 – 1.1898.

The U.S. dollar losses were further bolstered by the uncertainty over the next round of the U.S. fiscal stimulus measures, as the U.S. Congress members failed again from signaling any talks on the much-awaited stimulus amid political differences, which continued to fuel doubts over the U.S. economic recovery.

As we all know, the online meeting between the world’s top two nations I,e the U.S. & China, has been postponed without giving any future dates that were initially scheduled for Saturday. Despite this, the conflicting tone remains on the card as the Trump administration keeps increasing the hardships of companies from China. The U.S. diplomats recently announced punitive measures for Huawei in their latest attack for China. However, these gloomy headlines tend t cap further gains in the equity market, which might help the U.S. dollar put the safe-haven bids ahead.

Across the pond, the US-EU trade concerns still not showing any sign of slowing down as the U.S. decided to maintain its 25% tariffs on a range of E.U. goods. This happens after the White House realized that the E.U. is not doing enough to obey with the WTO’s ruling over state aid to Airbus. However, these updates could halt the upward momentum in the currency pair.

At the coronavirus front, the actual coronavirus cases increased to 225,404, with a total of 9,236 deaths. Whereas, the cases raised by 1,390 in Germany on the day against the previous day +738. The death toll rose by 4, as per the German disease and epidemic control center report, Robert Koch Institute (RKI).

At the USD front, the broad-based U.S. dollar reported losses on the day as the possibility of the U.S. Congress agreeing to a fiscal stimulus bill this month has weakened amid political differences, which eventually destroyed hopes for a quick U.S. economic recovery. In the absence of significant data/events on the day, the market traders will keep their eyes on the headlines concerning the US COVID-19 aid package, virus figures, and Sino-American trade.

Daily Technical Levels

Support	Pivot	Resistance
1.1838	1.1860	1.1891
1.1807		1.1913
1.1785		1.1945

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD pair has already violated the resistance level of 1.1862, which is now working as a support. On the 4 hour timeframe, the pair is supported by an upward trendline at 1.1880, while the double top resistance stays at 1.1916 level. Bullish bias seems dominant, and it may lead the EUR/USD prices towards the 1.1916 level today.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

Today in the Asian trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair remains on the bullish track and registered 4th day of winning streak while taking rounds near the 1.3120 and 1.3137 range mainly due to the broad-based U.S. dollar selling bias. That was triggered by the uncertainty surrounding the much-awaited coronavirus (COVID-19) relief package from America. The upbeat market mood also undermined the safe-haven U.S. dollar and contributed to the currency pair gains.

The upbeat market sentiment backed by multiple factors helped overshadowed the U.K.’s current economic slowdown and distracted from anxieties that the country is likely heading into an unemployment crisis. This, in turn, underpinned the local currency and gave further support to the major. At a particular time, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3139 and consolidating in the range between 1.3095 – 1.3141. However, the pair’s traders seem cautious to place any strong bids ahead of the key 7th-round of EU-UK talks concerning Brexit.

It is worth mentioning that the cable pair has many more to cheer on the day. Be it broad-based U.S. dollar weakness or upbeat market trading sentiment, not to forget the Brexit talks, these all factors are supporting the currency pair for the time being, at least.

At the Brexit front, the hopes of the trade deal next week got further fueled by the UK PM Boris Johnson’s previous comments that the United Kingdom will not accept aligning to rules of the E.U. at the coming round of post-Brexit discussions. Even though the trade deal is agreed between the U.K. and E.U., as per the U.K. Express report, the E.U. fishermen could clash with U.K. fishermen.

The coming round of talk becomes the last scheduled meet; policymakers earlier showed a willingness to extend the talks till September if needed. According to the BBC report, the E.U. chief negotiator Michel Barnier said that the agreement would be needed by October to ratify before the current post-Brexit transition period ends in December. However, the policymaker from both sides keeps alleging each other while citing failures to agree over the key issues like fisheries, level playing field, and jurisdiction rules, to name a few.

Across the pond, the UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak shows a willingness to extend the furlough scheme after rising unemployment rate and hence reopened support scheme for self-employed. However, the improving market mood helped overshadowed the U.K.’s current economic recession fears and concerns that the country is expected to heading into an unemployment crisis.

The currency pair gains were also supported by the positive report that Imperial College London’s coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine candidate is set for the next phase represents the Tory government’s efforts to control the pandemic.

On the other hand, the U.S. and China continue to struggle over one issue or the other. The Trump administration keeps increasing the hardships of companies from China by adding 38 Huawei facilities to the U.S.’ economic blacklist while also arresting a Chinese spy.

Whereas, the uncertainty over the next round of the U.S. fiscal stimulus measures remain on the cards, as the U.S. Congress members failed again from signaling any talks on the much-awaited stimulus amid political differences, which continued to fuel doubts over the U.S. economic recovery.

As in result, the broad-based U.S. dollar failed to gain any positive traction and extended its previous long bearish bias as doubts over the U.S. economic recovery remain amid coronavirus stimulus package. However, the losses in the U.S. dollar helped the currency pair to take bids on the day.

Daily Technical Levels

Support	Pivot	Resistance
1.3075	1.3099	1.3124
1.3050		1.3148
1.3027		1.3173

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.3137 level, and the pair was trading in between an ascending triangle pattern that has now been violated. The triangle pattern was extending resistance at 1.3125 level, and above this, the next resistance is pretty much likely to be found around 1.3189 level. At the same time, the support stays at 1.3125 and 1.3085 level. Bullish bias seems dominant today.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair extended its previous session losing streak and dropped further below 106.50 marks mainly due to the broad-based U.S. dollar four-day consecutive weakness, buoyed by the impasse over the next round of the U.S. fiscal stimulus measures. On the other hand, the upbeat market sentiment, backed by the optimism over a potential vaccine for the highly infectious coronavirus, undermined the safe-haven Japanese yen and helped currency pair to limit its deeper losses. In the meantime, the downbeat preliminary readings of Japan’s second quarter (Q2) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) also undermined the safe-haven Japanese yen currency and became one of the major factors that capped further downside for the currency pair. Currently, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 106.36 and consolidating in the range between 106.31 – 106.67.

Despite concerns about the ever-increasing coronavirus cases across the world and worsening US-China relations, the investors continued to cheer the optimism over a potential vaccine for the highly contagious coronavirus disease. Also, supporting factors could be the suspension of the US-China online meeting regarding the trade deal.

On the contrary, the fears of growing COVID-19 cases in the U.S., Australia, Japan, and some of the notable Asian nations like India continually fueling doubts over the economic recovery. As per the latest report, France recorded more than 3,000 new cases for the second day while Australia’s state Victoria marked the highest death loss, which resulted in an extended state of emergency until September 13. Singapore also reported 86 cases on the weekend. At the same time, New Zealand imposed fresh lockdowns after recording increased cases of Covid-19. However, these gloomy updates kept challenging the market risk-on tone, which might weaken the safe-haven JPY and help limit losses for the major.

Apart from the virus woes, the long-lasting tussle between the world’s two largest economies remained on the cards as China’s ambassador to the U.S. recently gave warning against the U.S. move to send ships to the South China Sea, which could raise further tensions between both nations and harm the trade deal. Whereas, President Trump announced yesterday that TikTok should give its U.S. operations to another company within one-month, or it will be banned in the U.S. due to significant security threats. In return, China’s Foreign Ministry recently said on the day that it would firmly oppose to U.S. actions.

As we mentioned, the downbeat preliminary readings of Japan’s second quarter (Q2) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) also gave some support to the currency pair. The world’s 3rd-largest economy declined by a 27.8% annualized pace during the second quarter of 2020. However, this marked the biggest economic fall on record and was led by the coronavirus-induced lockdown.

Daily Technical Levels

Support	Pivot	Resistance
105.7300	106.2000	106.4600
105.4800		106.9200
105.0100		107.1800

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY has violated the upward trendline support level of 106.345, as it fell sharply in the wake of increased safe-haven appeal in the market. At the movement, the USD/JPY pair is holding below 50 periods EMA, while the RSI and MACD are in support of bearish trend. The recent candle is closing above 105.344 level, suggesting strong odds of bullish correction until 106. However, the violation of 106 can lead USD/JPY prices towards the 104.600 support level. Good luck!

Tags Daily Brief, EUR/JPY, Forex, Forex Trading, Fundamental Analysis, GBPUSD, Support and Resistance, Technical Analysis, Technical Outlook, Trade Setup, trading, USDJPY

Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, August 18 – Crypto Fundamentals Booming: Bitcoin Above $12,000; XRP Skyrocketing to $0.315

Post author By Ilija Rankovic
Post date 18 August, 2020
1 Comment on Daily Crypto Review, August 18 – Crypto Fundamentals Booming: Bitcoin Above $12,000; XRP Skyrocketing to $0.315

The cryptocurrency market made gains over the course of the day as Bitcoin broke the $12,000 mark. Bitcoin is currently trading for $12,247, which represents an increase of 3.61% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum gained 1.12% on the day, while XRP gained 5.14%.

Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

When talking about top100 cryptocurrencies, Flexacoin gained 27.98% on the day, making it the most prominent daily gainer. yearn.finance (26.80%) and Fetch.ai (25.97%) also did great. On the other hand, Algorand lost 14.78%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by Chainlink’s loss of 12.26% and THORChain’s drop of 10.18%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s dominance level has increased slightly (though it is still under the 60% mark), with its value currently at 59.64%. This value represents a 0.47% difference to the upside when compared to our last report.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The cryptocurrency market cap experienced a solid increase in value over the course of the day. Its current value is $384.43 billion, which represents an increase of $11.03 billion when compared to our previous report.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

Bitcoin finally broke $12,000 with confidence, after a couple of days slowly preparing for this move. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap broke out from a large ascending triangle formation and pushed up to $12,470 before falling back down slightly. However, for now, Bitcoin is safe above $12,000 even though it is moving towards the downside. It will most likely test the closest support level in the short term.

This (relatively) sudden break above $12,000 came as a result of many things, but mostly increased interest in DeFi which is making people enter the crypto space (which they do through Bitcoin) and because of institutional investors such as Pantera capital (which just recently announced raising $165 million)

BTC traders should look for a trade after Bitcoin retests its support level.

BTC/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical factors:

Price is above its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
Price is slightly below its top B.B.
RSI is elevated (63.83)
Volume is decreasing (one-candle spike)

Key levels to the upside Key levels to the downside

1: $12,000 1: $11,630

2: $12,300 2: $11,460

3: $11,090

Ethereum

Ethereum’s social sentiment was booming as more and more people started investing in DeFi tokens. As this happened, more and more institutional investors grabbed ETH. This made the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap establish its place above $415 with no signs of going below it in the short future.

When talking about the past 24 hours, Ethereum made a push towards $450 (accompanied by skyrocketing volume), which it did not have the strength to complete. The move died down, and Ethereum is now consolidating at the $430 level.

Traders should look for a trade when ETH regains steady volume.

ETH/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical Factors:

Price is currently above its 21-period and its 50-period EMA
Price is at its middle B.B.
RSI is neutral (52.68)
Volume is average (one-candle spike)

Key levels to the upside Key levels to the downside

1: $445 1: $415

2: $496 2: $400

3: $361

Ripple

XRP made a bold move towards the upside after announcing that its company (Ripple) will focus its business model on the XRP token. As more emphasis was put on developing XRP as the main solution rather than a side solution, more investors flocked and bought XRP.

The third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap pushed past $0.31 and even $0.32, ultimately reaching $0.3275 as the top of the move. As it could not sustain itself above the $0.32 level, XRP fell below it and started a consolidation/confirmation period right between $0.31 and $0.32.

Traders can look for a trade after XRP moves towards $0.32 to break it or towards $0.31 to test the support level.

XRP/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical factors:

Price is currently above the 21-period and 50-period EMA
Price is slightly below the top B.B.
RSI is elevated (63.26)
Average volume (two-candle spike)

Key levels to the upside Key levels to the downside

1: $0.32 1: $0.31

2: $0.332 2: $0.285

3:$0.266

Tags bitcoin, BTC, Crypto, Crypto Trading, cryptocurrency, Daily Brief, ETH, Ethereum, Fundamental Analysis, Ripple, Technical Analysis, trading, XRP

Forex Signals

EUR/USD Violates Resistance – Buying Signal Doing Well!

Post author By Ali B.
Post date 17 August, 2020
No Comments on EUR/USD Violates Resistance – Buying Signal Doing Well!

The EUR/USD succeeded to extended its early-day bullish rally and hit the fresh intra-day highs above the mid-1.1800 level. However, the reason for the gains in currency pair could also be attributed to the broad-based U.S. dollar bearish bias, triggered by the on-going uncertainty surrounding the much-awaited U.S. fiscal stimulus and the second wave of coronavirus (COVID-19).

On the other hand, the reports that the country’s Finance Minister Olaf Scholtz outlined a EUR10 bn job subsidy extension plan, eventually underpinned the shared currency and contributed to the currency pair gains. In the meantime, the rising number of coronavirus in Europe became the key factor that kept the lid on any additional gains in the currency pair. At the moment, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.1850 and consolidating in the range between 1.1832 and 1.1868.

During speaking on a German TV late on Weakened, the country’s Finance Minister Olaf Scholtz sketched a job subsidy extension plan worth 10 billion Euros. The plan will extend up to 2 years and will allow firms to keep their employees and avoid layoffs. It will cover about 60% or more of salary. This supported the shared currency Euro and added in the upward trend of EUR/USD pair.

On the other hand, the online meeting between the world’s top two nations I,e the U.S. & China has been postponed without giving any future dates, that was initially scheduled for Saturday. However, this report played a negative role in the market trading sentiment and capped further gains in the equity market. The negative impact on the equity market decreased the risk sentiment and limited the early daily gains of currency pair EUR/USD.

At the USD front, the broad-based U.S. dollar reported losses on the day as the United States still faces uncertainty over the much-awaited coronavirus (COVID-19) relief package, which eventually destroyed hopes for a quick U.S. economic recovery.

The EUR/USD pair continues to trade bullish amid major resistance breakout of 1.1866 level. Continuation of an upward movement may drive more buying until 1.1909 level as the 50 EMA, RSI and MACD are supporting bullish bias. Checkout a trading signal below…

Entry Price – Buy 1.1871

Stop Loss – 1.1831

Take Profit – 1.1911

Risk to Reward – 1:1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.

iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368

Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

Tags EUR-USD, Forex, Fundamental Analysis, Support and Resistance, Technical Analysis

Forex Daily Topic Forex Fundamental Analysis

Understanding The Impact of ‘Sales Tax Rate’ News Release On The Forex Market

Post author By Reddy Shyam Shankar
Post date 17 August, 2020
No Comments on Understanding The Impact of ‘Sales Tax Rate’ News Release On The Forex Market

Introduction

The sales tax rate usually comes as an afterthought to many. But for forex traders, understanding how the rarely-talked about sales tax rate could prove useful in the long-run. This article defines what sales tax rate is and further shows how they impact a country’s economic development and, by extension, its currency.

Understanding the Sales Tax Rate

A sales tax rate is the percentage of the total cost of the goods or services being sold. Sales tax is a consumption tax that is imposed by governments or local authorities on the sale of goods and services. The sales tax rate is calculated as a percentage then added on the cost. These taxes are usually collected at the retail point of sale on behalf of the imposing authority.

As structured, any business that is offering goods or services is liable for the payment of the sales tax in a given jurisdiction. Depending on the laws, this occurs is they have a physical location within the jurisdiction, an official employee, or an affiliate.

How Sales Tax Work?

The sales tax is collected at the end of the supply chain, only after resale to the consumer has occurred. Since consumers are the ones paying the tax, businesses receive a resale certificate to show that the sales tax is not yet due. The purpose of this certificate to the resellers is to ensure that no sales tax is paid on purchases of items to be resold.

The administration for the sales tax is triggered by whether or not a particular business has a presence within the tax jurisdiction. To be eligible to collect sales tax from its customers, the business has to apply for a sales tax permit from the relevant authorities.

Depending on the jurisdiction, the goods and services that are eligible for a sales tax vary. Groceries and medications are exempt from sales tax, as are goods and services purchased by nonprofit organizations.

Sales Tax Rate as an Economic Indicator

The sales tax rate can serve as a leading indicator for the shifts in demand and supply within the economy. Higher sales tax rates reduce the purchasing power and, with it, the aggregate demand and aggregate supply. The lowered demand and supply within the economy result in reduced economic activities, which could have an unintended ripple effect throughout the economy. With lowered demand and supply, unemployment as a result of job cuts in the affected sectors is another unintended consequence of a higher sales tax rate.

On the other hand, lowering sales tax increases the purchasing power of consumers, which in turn increases the aggregate demand and aggregate supply. These increases lead to job creation in various sectors and boost a flourishing economy. With a lower sales tax rate, the GDP growth within the country is guaranteed to bring about a strengthening currency as a result of improved economic conditions.

How the Sales Tax Rate Affects the Economy

In general, the sales tax rate has a negative correlation with the GDP. This negative relationship is shown in the scatterplot graph below of the US state sales tax rate against the GDP.

Source: Georgia Tech Library

At its core, sales tax is a revenue stream for the government. Thus, it can be said that a higher sales tax rate increases government revenues. The increase in government revenues increases government expenditure, hence higher GDP. In this scenario, a conflict arises. This conflicts because sales tax is an extra cost passed on to the consumer.

Thus, in general, the sales tax rate reduces the purchasing power of the consumers. The reduced purchasing power leads to lesser sales taxes collected by the government, hence lower GDP. As a result of the diminished purchasing power, the consumers will spend less, resulting in a reduction in the aggregate demand within the economy. This reduction in demand leads to a reduction in the economic output hence lower GDP.

On the other hand, a lower sales tax rate returns some of the purchasing power to the consumers. They will spend more of their disposable income hence increasing the aggregate demand and supply within the economy. The increase in demand and supply increase the economic output. Furthermore, spending more implies that the government is bound to collect more revenue in the form of the applicable sales tax. An increase in revenue will increase the government expenditure within the economy, thus increasing the GDP.

How Sales Tax Rate Impacts Currency

The strength of any currency is usually seen as a direct reflection of its economic performance. As already discussed, the sales tax rate is considered to be leading indicators of aggregate demand and aggregate supply within an economy, and by extension, the unemployment levels. An increase in the sales tax rate will result in a drop in the aggregate demand and aggregate supply. This drop leads to increased unemployment levels and consequently reduced GDP. Long term currency traders can take their cue from an increased sales tax rate as an impending loss of strength in the country’s currency.

This loss in the currency’s strength can be brought by the expectations that, in the long run, central banks and the government will employ the use of expansionary fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate a stagnating economy. These policies harm the currency.

On the other hand, lowering the sales tax rate signifies that in the long run, the economy will be stimulated to grow. This growth is brought about by increased demand and supply. For forex traders, a country that is lowering the sales tax rate or entirely removing the sales tax can expect its currency to strengthen. The currency strength is because the traders can anticipate that in the long run, the government and the central banks may be forced to employ deflationary monetary and fiscal policies to avoid an overheating economy. These contractionary policies are good for the country’s currency.

Therefore, it can be expected that an increase in sales tax corresponds to a weakened currency against other pairs while a decrease in the sales tax rate corresponds to the strengthening of the currency.

How Sales Tax Rate News Release Affects The Forex Price Charts

The sales tax rate is not an indicator forex traders consider when placing their trades because it is a low-impact leading indicator. However, it is useful for forex traders to know just how much the impact of this low-level indicator is on the price charts.

In the US, the national government does now impose the sales tax. However, the various local governments set their own local sales tax rates. The detailed list of the US states and the sales tax rate applicable in each state can be found on the Sales Tax Institute website. The data on annual GDP growth can be accessed from the World Bank website. A forecast of the sales tax rate through to 2020 can be found on the Trading Economics website.

Below is a screengrab of the Sales Tax Institute showing the most recent changes sales tax rate in Washington.

In the latest release, Washington state lowered the sales tax rate applicable from 8.0 % to 6.5% in an attempt to alleviate the strain on consumers as a result of the Coronavirus pandemic.

Now, let’s see how this news release made an impact on the Forex price charts.

EUR/USD: Before Washington Sales tax rate release July 1, 2020

As can be seen in the chart above, we have plotted a 20-period Moving Average on a one-hour EUR/USD chart. From the chart, the pair is one a steady uptrend, represented by the candlesticks forming above the Moving Average. Before the news release at 1730GMT, the pair can be seen to be on a recovering uptrend. This uptrend can also be observed in the AUD/USD pair, as shown by the chart below.

AUD/USD: Before Washington Sales tax rate release July 1, 2020

For the NZ/USD, the pair is on a steady downtrend for hours preceding the news release. This trend is shown in the chart below.

NZD/USD: Before Washington Sales tax rate release July 1, 2020

For long-term forex traders, the pattern offers an excellent opportunity to go long on the EUR/USD and AUD/USD pairs while short on NZD/USD, since the prevailing market trends would favor them. Let us now see how the price action responded to the release of the sales tax rate in Washington State.

EUR/USD: After the sales tax rate release July 1, 2020

Lowering the sales tax rate should have a strengthening effect on the USD. However, as shown in the chart above, the news release of the sales tax rate had no impact on the EUR/USD since the uptrend continued with the same magnitude as before. The same trend can be observed on the AUD/USD and NZD/USD pairs since the previous trends were no reversed. This trend is shown in the charts below.

NZD/USD: After the sales tax rate release July 1, 2020

AUD/USD: After the sales tax rate release July 1, 2020

It is evident from the after-news charts that the release of the sales tax rate does not have any impact on the price action. Although it is has a significant impact on the GDP, it is a low-level economic indicator in the forex market. Cheers!

Tags Forex, Forex Fundamental Analysis, Forex Trading, Fundamental Analysis, Fundamental Factors, Macro Economics, Sales, Sales Tax Rate, Tax Rates, trading

Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, August 17 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eyes Technical Levels!

Post author By Ali B.
Post date 17 August, 2020
1 Comment on Daily F.X. Analysis, August 17 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eyes Technical Levels!

On the news front, the market isn’t offering any high impact on market-moving fundamentals. Therefore, we have to focus on the market’s technical side to drive further movements in the market.

Economic Events to Watch Today

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair closed at 1.18409 after placing a high of 1.18503 and a low of 1.17815. Overall the movement of the EUR/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. The EUR/USD pair on Friday remained in a tight range in European trading hours after the release of GDP figure from the Eurozone, and in American trading session, it started to post gains and ended its day on a positive note.

At 11:45 GMT, the French Final CPI in July remained flat with the expectations of 0.4%. At 14:00 GMT, the Flash Employment Change in the second quarter was recorded as -2.8%, and the Flash GDP in the second quarter fell as expected -12.1%. The Trade Balance from Europe in June declined to 17.1B from the forecasted 18.0 B and weighed on single currency Euro.

The GDP data confirmed the fears and dropped by 12.1% showed the biggest contraction since the quarterly GDP calculation began in 1970 for Germany. It was even more pronounced than during the financial market and economic crisis. The macroeconomic data from Europe weighed on EUR and dragged the pair EUR/USD with itself.

The U.S. Dollar held steady against its rival currency as positive risk sentiment continues to weigh on the safe-haven greenback. The Core Retail Sales in July increased to 1.9% from the forecasted 1.3% and supported the U.S. dollar. At the same time, the Retail Sales data declined to 1.2% against the expected 2.0% and weighed on the U.S. dollar.

In August, the Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment increased to 72.8 against the forecasted 72.0 and supported the U.S. dollar. The data failed to provide any significant trend to the pair, however as the consumer sentiment improved, the U.S. dollar started to pick up its pace against its rival currencies.

Meanwhile, the delay in the release of the next U.S. Stimulus aid package was getting longer day by day. It raised concerns as President Donald Trump accused that U.S. Congressional Democrats had refused to negotiate on the next bill. The pair was also higher on Friday as the risk sentiment improved ahead of the US-China trade deal review meeting scheduled for August 15.

Furthermore, the U.S. Dollar was higher on the ground as the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose continuously from past days. At the same time, the Euro was under pressure because of the massive selling bias in Turkish lira from recent weeks. The Euro underperformed during the lira crisis in 2018, and downside risks suggest that Euro might face sell-off if history was repeated.

The upcoming week will bring the minutes from both the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. Meanwhile, the pair will continue to follow the global risk sentiment; any progress in trade-deal will be beneficial for EUR/USD pair; however, if any tension arises and the US-China issue continues to escalate, the greenback could rise against its counterpart as a safe-haven asset.

Daily Technical Levels

Support	Pivot	Resistance
1.1745	1.1805	1.1900
1.1650		1.1960
1.1591		1.2054

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is facing resistance at 1.1865 level, which is extended by a double top level. Below this, the EUR/USD can extend selling bias until 1.1820 and 1.1782 level. However, the bullish breakout of the 1.1865 level can continue selling until 1.1908. On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD has formed an ascending triangle pattern, which may extend resistance at 1.1866 level. The closing of candles beneath this level is expected to drive selling bias until the 1.1819 level. Let’s keep an eye on 1.1866 level to stay bullish above and bearish below this level today.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD closed at 1.30824 after placing a high of 1.31426 and a low of 1.30452. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. The GBP/USD pair struggled to hold gains as both the U.S. dollar and Sterling has gloomy outlook. Both the U.S. & U.K. economies have suffered from the coronavirus pandemic, and the outlook of GBP/USD pair suggests that it was dominated by the pandemic induced gloomy economic condition.

This week, the GBP/USD pair has jumped between highs of 1.32123 and lows of 1.3007. The high was not too far from the previous week’s high of 1.3176, that was the best level for the GBP/USD pair in six months.

We can say that the GBP/USD pair has managed to sustain the impressive July gains; however, further gains seem unlikely. As the negotiations between the U.K. and Japan came to a halt this week. This came in after U.K. pretended to have better trade conditions than those it had as part of the E.U. Another factor weighed on U.K. currency this week was the biggest contraction in the U.K.’s economy in the second quarter by 20.4%.

The contraction was derived as a terrible consequence of the coronavirus induced lockdown measures. The U.K. government is still struggling with the reopening schedule, and PM Boris Johnson has pledged to open schools from next month.

As worries of the second loop of coronavirus worsened across the globe, the concerns raised over the question of how the government would react. There are speculations that if Britain’s coronavirus situation does not improve, the whole nation could see continuous lockdown.

On Brexit front, although both countries E.U. and the U.K. remain far apart on several crucial issues, Britain’s chief negotiator David Frost said on Thursday that a Brexit deal could be reached in September.

The next round of the talks between both countries will take place on August 18, and comments from both sides suggested that they remain committed to reaching a deal. This has been supportive of Sterling, and hence GBP/USD raised.

Meanwhile, on the data front, there was no data to be released from Great Britain, and as for the U.S., the Retail Sales dropped to 1.2% from the expected 2.0% in July and weighed on the U.S. dollar.

The Core Retail Sales, however, improved to 1.9% in July against the anticipated 1.3% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment also raised to 72.8 points against the expected 72 and supported the U.S. dollar that kept the gains in GBP/USD pair limited on Friday. The risk sentiment also supported the GBP/USD pair on Friday as the traders were cautious ahead of the US-China trade deal review meeting scheduled to be released on August 15.

Daily Technical Levels

Support	Pivot	Resistance
1.3010	1.3077	1.3150
1.2938		1.3216
1.2871		1.3289

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading at 1.3106 level, holding above the 50 periods EMA support level 1.3080. The bearish breakout of the 1.3080 support level can extend selling unto 1.3019 level. The upward channel also supports the GBPUSD at 1.3080, which provides resistance at 1.3134 level. The GBP/USD should confer a bearish crossover of 1.3082 level confirm a strong selling bias in the Cable until then; we should wait and watch. On the higher side, Sterling may find resistance at 1.3175 and 1.3224. Let’s consider selling below 1.3080 and buying over the same with minor stop loss.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 106.573 after placing a high of 107.036 and a low of 106.433. Overall the movement of the USD/JPY pair remained bearish throughout the day. The U.S. Congress has failed to boost the economy and health care system, and it caused the U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday to stress for a coronavirus aid package. Trump pushed for state and local government aid and assistance regarding rental payments, more direct payments, and small business loans.

On the US-China front, both countries have delayed a review of their phase-1 trade deal that was initially scheduled for August 15. U.S. granted this time to China to increase the purchases of U.S. exports. The meeting was scheduled to take place on Saturday at the six-month anniversary of the phase one trade deal. The deal took its effect from February 15 as the global spread of coronavirus pandemic started.

On Friday, US President Donald Trump told us that the trade deal was intact and doing very well, but he did not mention anything about the delay in the review meeting. According to some sources familiar with the plans, the U.S. wanted to give more time to China to increase the purchases of the U.S. farm products that were part of the agreed deal. America’s favor given to China was provided to increase the review’s political optics as the U.S. Presidential elections were near.

On the negative side, there was news that Trump has said in a news conference that he was looking at banning other China-owned companies like Alibaba. This raised the fears of renewed conflicts and weighed on the market sentiment that dragged the USD/JPY pair on the downside.

Meanwhile, the Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Zheng Zeguang said that the relationship between the U.S. and China was at a critical juncture, and efforts should be made from both sides to maintain and stabilize the bilateral ties between both nations.

On the data front, at 09:30 GMT, the Tertiary Industry Activity in June from Japan rose to 7.9% from the forecasted 6.4% and supported the Japanese Yen that contributed to USD/JPY pair’s losses of the day.

At 17:30 GMT, the Core Retail Sales in July from the U.S. rose to 1.9% from the forecasted 1.3% and supported the U.S. dollar. At the same time, the Retail Sales in July dropped to 1.2% from the anticipated 2.0% and weighed on the U.S. dollar.

The core retail sales data exclude automobile sales that include about 20% of the retail sales data. The positive core retail sales and negative retail sales indicated that the automobile sector had suffered more than other sectors. The Prelim Nonfarm Productivity for the second quarter raised to 7.3% from the anticipated 1.5% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The Prelim Unit Labor Cost for the second quarter rose to 12.2% against the forecasted 6.5% and supported the U.S. dollar.

At 18:15 GMT, the Capacity Utilization Rate also increased to 70.6% from the expected 70.3% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Industrial Production in July dropped to 3.0% from the anticipated 3.1% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. At 19:00 GMT, the Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment in August rose to 72.8 from the anticipated 72.0 and supported the U.S. dollar. However, the Business Inventories in June came in as expected -1.1%. The Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations in August also remained flat at 3.0%.

After the release of U.S. economic data on Friday, the U.S. Dollar Index that rose to 93.40 earlier in the day, lost its traction and fell by 0.15% to 93.10 level. This weighed on USD/JPY pair, and the pair started to post losses on the day.

Daily Technical Levels

Support	Pivot	Resistance
105.8400	106.4500	107.1900
105.1000		107.8000
104.4900		108.5500

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY consolidates in a sideways range, holding over resistance to become a support level of 106.428 level. Over this level, the USD/JPY is opening further room for buying until 107.450 level, but below this, the USD/JPY pair can trigger sharp selling until 105.752. The RSI and MACD are also supporting bearish bias in the pair. The current market price (CMP) of USDJPY is holding above 50 EMA, which extends support at 106.484 and may push the pair higher. Let’s consider buying above 106.480 level and selling below the same today. Good luck!

Tags Daily Brief, Daily Support and Resistance, EURUSD, Forex, Forex Trading, Fundamental Analysis, GBPUSD, Support and Resistance, Technical Analysis, Technical Outlook, trading, USDJPY

Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, August 17 – DeFi Craze Continues: More BTC Tokenized Than Mined

Post author By Ilija Rankovic
Post date 17 August, 2020
1 Comment on Daily Crypto Review, August 17 – DeFi Craze Continues: More BTC Tokenized Than Mined

The cryptocurrency market spent most of its weekend consolidating, with only a couple of cryptocurrencies moving significantly. Bitcoin is currently trading for $11,817, which represents a decrease of 0.64% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum lost 1.27% on the day, while XRP lost 0.47%.

Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

When talking about top100 cryptocurrencies, OMG Network gained 50.69% on the day, making it the most prominent daily gainer. Waves (26.69%) and Ren (24.74%) also did great. On the other hand, Quant lost 6.55%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by Divi’s loss of 5.80% and Ampleforth’s drop of 5.08%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s dominance level has decreased slightly and dropped under the 60% mark, with its value currently at 59.17%. This value represents a 0.91% difference to the downside when compared to our last report.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The cryptocurrency market cap experienced a slight increase in value over the weekend. Its current value is $373.40 billion, which represents an increase of $5.33 billion when compared to our previous report.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

Bitcoin was on a slightly upward slope over the course of the weekend, trying to reach $12,000 before attempting a strong push. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap saw good support in the 21-period moving average, which kept it on its path. The descending RSI and incredibly low volume indicate that the cryptocurrency will move very soon. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s hashrate reached its new all-time high of 129 EH/s.

BTC traders should look for a trade when a volume spike happens.

BTC/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical factors:

Price is above its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
Price is at its middle B.B
RSI is neutral (52.88)
Volume is decreasing (Low)

Key levels to the upside Key levels to the downside

1: $12,000 1: $11,630

2: $12,300 2: $11,460

3: $11,090

Ethereum

Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum was not moving slow throughout the weekend. After breaking the $415 mark, Ethereum needed to consolidate above it and show strength, which it did. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap retested its support (successfully) and is now safely at the $425 mark.

Traders should look for a trade when ETH regains volume.

ETH/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical Factors:

Price is currently above its 21-period and its 50-period EMA
Price is above its top B.B.
RSI is neutral (52.85)
Volume is below average

Key levels to the upside Key levels to the downside

1: $445 1: $415

2: $496 2: $400

3: $361

Ripple

XRP spent its weekend consolidating between the $0.285 and $0.31 support and resistance levels. Low volatility, as well as volume, made XRP virtually untradeable over the course of the weekend. However, as much as XRP doesn’t seem like it doesn’t have the strength to push through $0.31 by itself (without Bitcoin moving first), the state it is currently in is still more bullish than bearish.

Traders can look for a trade after XRP increases its volume and heads towards $0.31.

XRP/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical factors:

Price is currently above the 21-period and 50-period EMA
Price is between its middle and top B.B.
RSI is neutral (55.30)
Low volume

Key levels to the upside Key levels to the downside

1: $0.31 1: $0.285

2: $0.32 2: $0.266

3: $0.245

Tags bitcoin, BTC, Crypto, Crypto Trading, cryptocurrency, Daily Brief, ETH, Ethereum, Fundamental Analysis, Ripple, Technical Analysis, trading, XRP

Forex Signals

EUR/USD Choppy Trading Continues – An Update on Signal!

Post author By Ali B.
Post date 14 August, 2020
No Comments on EUR/USD Choppy Trading Continues – An Update on Signal!

The EUR/USD remain depressive near 1.18 level, mainly due to the coronavirus latest report, which fueled fears that the economic recovery could halt once again. Despite the risk-off market sentiment in the Asian stock markets, the broad-based U.S. dollar struggled to draw safe-haven bids but failed at least now. In turn, the currency pair got helped to limit its deeper losses and hold above 1.18 level. The on-going U.S. Congress’s failure to reach an agreement for the country’s latest COVID-19 stimulus package also adds a burden to the greenback and helps currency pair. At the moment, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.1802 and consolidating in the range between 1.1791 – 1.1826.

The Cases increased by 1,449 in Germany on the day against Thursday’s +1,445. While the death count increased by 14, the tally showed. Considering the current situation of the virus in Europe, Germany’s Health Minister Jens Spahn said that they are very concerned about the surge in the coronavirus cases but assured that the health system would control everything. As in result, the shared currency weakened and contributed to the currency pair losses.

On the other hand, the on-going uncertainty surrounding the much-awaited U.S. fiscal stimulus or the second wave of coronavirus (COVID-19) adds burden on the broad-based U.S. dollar and capped further downside for the currency pair. The Democrats and Republicans are still struggling to approve an additional stimulus package as authorities hinted that additional stimulus is needed to control the recent wave of the coronavirus’s negative impact.

Despite Thursday’s upbeat U.S. jobs data, the broad-based U.S. dollar failed to gain any positive traction and edged lower on the day as doubts over the U.S. economic recovery remain amid coronavirus crisis. However, the losses in the U.S. dollar helped the currency pair to limit its deeper losses. Whereas, the U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies dropped 0.08% to 93.243.

Across the pond, the investor sentiment dampened once again by disappointing Chinese data released earlier in the day. At the data front, China’s industrial production increased by 4.8% over the previous year in July. At the same time, the output expanded for the 4th-straight month, against expectations for a 5.1% year-on-year rise. In the meantime, the retail sales fell 1.1%, worse than an expected 0.1% expansion.

The data overshadowed the optimism made by the deceleration in China’s factory deflation signaled by the producer price index released earlier this month and weakened the risk sentiment in the Asia markets. However, the risk-off market sentiment helped the U.S. dollar put the safe-haven bid and capped its deeper losses.

Moving on, the shared currency could face losses if the Eurozone Gross Domestic Product, which is scheduled to release at 09:00 GMT, shows a bigger-than-expected economic recession in the 2nd-quarter.

The EUR/USD is trading neutral on Friday, as traders seem to wait for major economic data to help drive a breakout. The bullish sentiment seems dominant as the EUR/USD pair trades at 1.1818 level, holding right below an immediate resistance level of 1.1820. Below this, the pair is likely to trade bearish until 1.1783 and 1.1745 level. Conversely, the bullish breakout of the 1.1820 level can lead the pair to be further higher until 1.1860 and the 1.1890 levels.

Entry Price – Sell 1.18014
Stop Loss – 1.18414
Take Profit – 1.17614
Risk to Reward – 1:1
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.

iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368

Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

Tags EUR-USD, Forex, Fundamental Analysis, spread, Support, Support and Resistance, Technical Analysis

Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, August 14 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eyes U.S. Retail Sales!

Post author By Ali B.
Post date 14 August, 2020
1 Comment on Daily F.X. Analysis, August 14 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eyes U.S. Retail Sales!

On the news side, the eyes will remain on the U.S. retail sales data and the Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment from the United States. Both of the events are expected to drop from their previous figures. Typically such kind of data drives bearish movement in the U.S. dollar. Therefore, the market can trade a weaker dollar sentiment today.

Economic Events to Watch Today

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair succeeded to extended its previous session bullish rally and hit the fresh intra-day highs towards 1.1800 level. However, the reason for the gains in currency pair could also be attributed to the broad-based U.S. dollar bearish bias, backed by fears that U.S. economic recovery from COVID-19 continuing to diminish. The on-going U.S. Congress’ failure to reach an agreement for the country’s latest COVID-19 stimulus package also added a burden to the greenback and contributed to the currency pair gains.

On the contrary, the growing cases of coronavirus in Germany became the key factor that kept the lid on any additional gains in the currency pair. At the moment, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.1831 and consolidating in the range between 1.1781 – 1.1838.

The on-going uncertainty surrounding the much-awaited U.S. fiscal stimulus or the second wave of coronavirus (COVID-19), not to forget the latest tension between America and China over TikTok, weighed on the broad-based U.S. dollar and contributed to the currency pair gains. It should be noted that the Democrats and Republicans are still struggling to approve an additional stimulus package as authorities hinted that additional stimulus is needed to control the negative impact of the recent wave of the coronavirus.

At the coronavirus front, the number of reported coronavirus cases increased to 219,964, with a total of 9,211 deaths tolls, as per the German disease and epidemic control center, Robert Koch Institute (RKI), on Thursday. Meanwhile, the Cases rose by 1,445 in Germany on Thursday against Wednesday’s +1,226. Whereas the death toll increased by 4, the tally showed. Despite this, the shared currency did not give any major attention to it and remains unperturbed by the renewed virus concerns.

The market players will keep their eyes on the Retail Sales m/m, Core Retail Sales m/m, and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, which is scheduled to be released during the New York session.

Daily Technical Levels

Support	Pivot	Resistance
1.1773	1.1819	1.1857
1.1735		1.1903
1.1689		1.1942

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair succeeded in stopping its previous-day losing streak and rose closer to 1.3100 level, mainly due to the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness. That was triggered by the coronavirus crisis in the U.S., which continued to fuel worries that the second wave of COVID-19 cases could undermine the U.S. economy.

The repeated inability over the much-awaited stimulus also adds pressure on the U.S. dollar and further pushed the currency pair. On the other hand, the fresh optimism over the UK-US relations also added strength around the Pound currency and contributed to the currency pair gains. On the other hand, the on-going pessimism of coronavirus (COVID-19) second wave in the U.K., and the UK-Japan lingering trade talks became the major factors that kept the lid on any further gains in the currency pair. Currently, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3084 and consolidating in the range between 1.3031 – 1.3093.

The U.K. Trade Secretary Liz Truss declared that she is very satisfied as the United States has not implemented additional tariffs, which gave some support to the local currency and extended further upside momentum in the pair.

The U.K. formally started to face recession the previous day, with over 20% of GDP drop across the pond. In turn, the British business leaders and trade unions urged the extension of furlough scheme beyond October expiry; Chancellor Rishi Sunak sees promising signs off-late.

At the Brexit front, the Brexit jitters remain on the card as the fisheries and level-playing field being the tardiest obstacle. However, the policymakers from both sides are set to resume the sixth round in the next week. Apart from this, the U.S. criticized the European Union (E.U.) due to its lack of action regarding the airbus case. Elsewhere, the U.S. added some French and German goods to the tariff list while removing a few from the U.K. and Greece.

On the other hand, the rising COVID-19 cases, especially in the U.S., Australia, Japan, and some of the notable Asian nations like India, fueled concerns that the economic recovery could halt once again, which ultimately drags the broad-based U.S. dollar under pressure. The on-going uncertainty surrounding the much-awaited U.S. fiscal stimulus and the latest tension between America and China over TikTok also weighed on the broad-based U.S. dollar and contributed to the currency pair gains.

As a result, the broad-based U.S. dollar reporting losses on the day amid the failure of the U.S. stimulus package, as well as the United States still facing virus woes, ultimately crushed hopes for a quick economic recovery. Nevertheless, the losses in the U.S. dollar helped the currency pair to stay higher.

Daily Technical Levels

Support	Pivot	Resistance
1.3021	1.3073	1.3116
1.2977		1.3169
1.2925		1.3212

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD consolidates at 1.3070 level, holding right above the 50 periods EMA support area of 1.3040 level while the bearish breakout of 1.3040 level can extend selling unto 1.2918 level. Recently as we can see in the chart above that the GBPUSD pair has violated its upward trendline that supported the pair around 1.3130 level, and now below this, we can expect GBP/USD to continue trading bearish. The GBP/USD should show a bearish crossover to confirm a strong selling bias in the Cable. On the higher side, Sterling may find resistance at 1.3105 and 1.3175. Let’s consider selling below 1.3045 level today.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair failed to extend its previous 4-day bullish bias and dropped just above the mid-106.00 level, mainly due to the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness triggered by the worries that the second wave of COVID-19 cases in the United States could ruin the recovery in the world’s biggest economy. The on-going doubts over the U.S. Stimulus Package also weighed on the American currency and contributed to the pair losses. On the other hand, the concerns about intensifying US-China relations and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer’s verbal attack on Europe extended some additional support to the safe-haven Japanese yen, which exerted an additional burden on the currency pair. Apart from this, the upbeat performance of Japanese PPI also underpinned the Japanese yen and pushed currency pair further lower. At this particular time, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 106.91 and consolidating between 106.57 – 106.94.

Despite the reduction in coronavirus cases, the fears about the U.S. economic recovery still hover all over the market and keep the U.S. dollar bulls defensive. As per the latest report, the figures have crossed almost 5.2 million cases in the U.S. alone as of August 13, as per the Johns Hopkins University and millions unemployed.

Meanwhile, the risk-off market sentiment was further bolstered by the long-lasting disappointment over the lack of progress in the much-awaited fiscal package. U.S. President Donald Trump accused Democrats that they are not willing to negotiate over the package.

As in result, the broad-based U.S. dollar failed to gain any positive traction on the day and reported losses as the United States crisis of virus could break hopes for a quick economic recovery, which kept the investors careful. However, the losses in the U.S. dollar kept the currency pair bearish.

Also weighing on the market trading sentiment could be the U.S. Central Command’s statement suggesting the Iranian Navy overtaking a ship called “Wila.” Besides, the U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer’s verbal attack on Europe also adds a burden to the market trading sentiment.

Across the Pound, the losses in the currency pair could also be associated with Japanese PPI’s upbeat performance, which eventually underpinned Japanese yen and contributed to the currency pair declines. At the data front, Japan’s July month Producer Price Index (PPI) grew past-0.3% forecast on MoM to 0.6%. Further, the yearly figures slipped less than -1.1% expected level to -0.9%.

Daily Technical Levels

Support	Pivot	Resistance
106.6400	106.8500	107.1400
106.3500		107.3500
106.1400		107.6400

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY trades sideways over resistance become a support level of 106.628 level. Above this, the USD/JPY pair is opening further room for buying until 107.450 level. The RSI and MACD are also supporting bullish bias in the pair. A recent bullish breakout of 106.450 level can extend the buying trend until 107.390. The current market price of USDJPY is staying over 50 EMA, which extends support at 105.950 and may push the pair higher. Let’s consider buying above 106.480 level today. Good luck!

Tags Daily Brief, EUR-USD, Forex, Fundamental Analysis, GBP-USD, GBPUSD, Support and Resistance, Technical Analysis, Technical Outlook, Trade Setup, trading, USD-JPY

Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, August 14 – ETH Price Skyrocketing; BitMEX Implementing KYC Procedures

Post author By Ilija Rankovic
Post date 14 August, 2020
1 Comment on Daily Crypto Review, August 14 – ETH Price Skyrocketing; BitMEX Implementing KYC Procedures

The cryptocurrency market had mad a slight rally in the past 24 hours, with Ethereum leading the way with a price gain of almost 8%. Bitcoin is currently trading for $11,723, which represents an increase of 1.33% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum gained 7.61% on the day, while XRP gained 4.96%.

Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

When talking about top100 cryptocurrencies, Waves gained 36.29% on the day, making it the most prominent daily gainer. Algorand (34.02%) and Reserve Rights (25.27%) also did great. On the other hand, Ampleforth lost 14.74%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by Aragon’s loss of 12.46% and yearn.finance’s drop of 11.04%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s dominance level has decreased slightly since we last reported, with its value currently at 60.08%. This value represents a 0.76% difference to the downside when compared to yesterday’s value.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The cryptocurrency market cap experienced an increase in value since we last reported. Its current value is $368.07 billion, which represents an increase of $9.15 billion when compared to yesterday’s value.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

Bitcoin spent the day trying to get back near $12,000 after a day of consolidation. Its price made a sharp move towards the upside and broke the $11,630 resistance level, but stopped at $11,850 and then started to retrace. This retracement is most likely a test of the newly-passed resistance (now support). If Bitcoin’s price holds up above it, there is a good chance that we can see another move towards the $12,000 mark in the near term.

BTC traders should look for an opportunity when BTC spikes after the confirmation of its position.

BTC/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical factors:

Price is currently above its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
Price is above its middle B.B
RSI is neutral (54.81)
Volume is decreasing

Key levels to the upside Key levels to the downside

1: $12,000 1: $11,630

2: $12,300 2: $11,460

3: $11,090

Ethereum

Ethereum is the star of the day, as its price has skyrocketed over the course of the last 24 hours. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap saw a massive increase in volume while its price went from below-$400 levels all the way up to $432. Ethereum is now consolidating at around $420 and trying to test the $415 support level.

Traders should look for a trade when Ethereum confirms its position above $415 (or fails to do so).

ETH/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical Factors:

Price is above its 21-period and its 50-period EMA
Price is above its top B.B.
RSI is overbought (71.94)
Volume is average (one-candle spike)

Key levels to the upside Key levels to the downside

1: $415 1: $$400

2: $496 2: $361

3: $340

Ripple

XRP had a great day and outperformed Bitcoin as well. The third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap ended up gaining almost 5% on the day after breaking above the $0.285 resistance level. As we noted in our previous report, breaking this level is key to pushing further towards the upside, and XRP’s future moves towards $0.31 are a bit more realistic now. However, for the time being, the current progress got stopped by the top B.B. at $0.3, and XRP started consolidating and (possibly) testing $0.285 as support.

Traders can look for an opportunity right after XRP increases in volume and heads towards $0.31.

XRP/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical factors:

Price is above the 21-period and 50-period EMA
Price is between its middle and top B.B.
RSI is neutral (57.75)
Low volume

Key levels to the upside Key levels to the downside

1: $0.31 1: $0.285

2: $0.32 2: $0.266

3: $0.245

Tags bitcoin, BTC, Crypto, Crypto Trading, cryptocurrency, Daily Brief, ETH, Ethereum, Fundamental Analysis, Ripple, Technical Analysis, trading, XRP

Forex Fundamental Analysis

What Is Business Confidence & How Does Its News Release Impact The Forex Market?

Post author By Reddy Shyam Shankar
Post date 13 August, 2020
No Comments on What Is Business Confidence & How Does Its News Release Impact The Forex Market?

Introduction Business Confidence is the most important leading indicator for economic growth that is closely watched by traders, investors, economists, and even policymakers. Business Confidence survey provides the take of the business sector on their near-term prospects that helps us understand what the oncoming quarterly conditions will be. Business Confidence Indexes are crucial for fundamental […]

Introduction

Business Confidence is the most important leading indicator for economic growth that is closely watched by traders, investors, economists, and even policymakers. Business Confidence survey provides the take of the business sector on their near-term prospects that helps us understand what the oncoming quarterly conditions will be. Business Confidence Indexes are crucial for fundamental analysis.

What is Business Confidence?

The economy can be broadly categorized as the private and public sectors. The public sector involves all the government and central bank-related offices and industries. The private sector is composed of two main participants: Businesses and Consumers. In the United States, Businesses make up 34% of the private sector. The business sector is again broadly divided based on output as the Manufacturing Industry and Services Industry. The Manufacturing Sector is primarily related to industries that manufacture and sell physical goods. The Services Sector deals with the Services that are essentially non-physical and are challenging to quantify.

The Manufacturing Sector makes up 20% of the GDP, and the remainder 80% is attributed to the Services Sector. Since the business industry is the real economic wealth of the nation, it is the primary source of the Gross Domestic Product. Hence, Business Confidence Indexes can give us an excellent assessment of the upcoming economic trends in the Industry.

Business Confidence Indexes are based on surveys taken from some of the largest industries in both the manufacturing and services sector, asking them about their current business conditions and their outlook about business activity in the coming 2-3 months.

In the US, the publishing of the Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index is done by the institute of supply management every month. It is a survey of about 400 largest manufacturers in the United States of America. It also publishes a Non-Manufacturing Index, which is the same index associated with the Services Industry.

Note

The approach may vary amongst the surveying companies. For example, the National Australia Bank Business Confidence Index is computed on a net balance basis. In it, the surveyed companies are asked whether there is a positive or negative outlook. Their question would be per se, “Excluding normal seasonal changes, how do you expect business conditions of your industry to change in the next three months?”. The result is calculated as positive, less negative responses, which is the net balance.

How can Business Confidence numbers be used for analysis?

The question that is generally asked in the study is related to MOM changes in the Business Activity, New Orders, Production, Employment, Deliveries, and Inventories with equal weightage.

The Manufacturing PMI and Services NMI ratings lie within the range of 0-100. A score above 50 implies an expansion in the economic activity, and a score below 50 implies contraction. Although across the globe, different survey companies follow different metrics, like the NAB Business Confidence Index follows a zero-based scale, where a score above zero indicates positive sentiment and less than indicates a bearish sentiment.

Business Confidence or Business Sentiment is analogous to Consumer Sentiment, except that the figures are more fact-oriented, as it takes into account the business inventory count, estimates, current production levels, etc. It is asking the business owners about their outlook on the economic prospects in the short-term.

Business Confidence Surveys are very important for policymakers also. They use these statistics to intervene by fiscal and monetary policy reforms to combat deflationary threats, if any.

Impact on Currency

Historically, in the United States, PMI and NMI have predicted GDP growth with 85% accuracy 12-months ahead of time, as illustrated in the below ISM PMI plot against quarterly Real GDP growth. The correlation of business confidence with economic growth is strong, and hence, it is an important leading economic indicator.

Market volatility is sensitive to Business Confidence Indexes. Significant moves in the index cause volatility in the market. It is a high impact leading indicator. High business confidence translates to improving economic prospects, which will translate to higher GDP prints and currency appreciation.

Business Confidence Announcement – Impact due to news release

Till now, we have comprehended the Business Confidence economic indicator. It is essentially used to monitor output growth and to anticipate turning points in economic activity. Numbers above 100 suggests increased confidence in near future business performance, and numbers below 100 indicate pessimism towards future performance. Therefore, investors give a reasonable amount of importance to the data while analyzing a currency.

In today’s lesson, we will look at the NAB Business Confidence Index that is a key measure of Busines Confidence in Australia, published monthly and quarterly by National Australia Bank (NAB). The survey is that is carried out covers hundreds of Australian companies and few banks which measures business conditions in the country. A positive reading can be interpreted as good for the currency and equities, while a negative reading can be interpreted as a warning sign to the government, which leads to a build-up of bearish positions in the currency.

AUD/USD | Before the announcement

We shall start with the USD/JPY pair to observe the change in volatility due to the news release. The above price chart shows the state of the market before the news announcement, where we see the market is in a strong downtrend and the price currently is at the lowest point. We need to wait for a price retracement to the ‘resistance’ to take a ‘sell’ position in the currency pair. Until then, we will see what impact the news makes on the chart.

AUD/USD | After the announcement

After the news announcement, the price moves lower and volatility increases to the downside. The Business Confidence reading was better than last time, but it was good enough to drive the price higher. Therefore, traders sold Australian dollars soon after the release and weakened the currency. In order to take a ‘sell’ trade, as mentioned earlier, we need a price retracement before we can join the trend.

AUD/NZD | Before the announcement

AUD/NZD | After the announcement

The above images represent the AUD/NZD currency pair, where we notice a resilient move to the downside a few minutes before the news announcement. Currently, the price is at a point from where the market had reversed earlier to the upside. Thus, this could serve as a strong ‘support’ area from where we can again expect buying pressure. Depending on the change in volatility due to the news release, we will take an appropriate position.

After the news announcement, the price sharply drops, and we witness a big fall in the market. We can ascertain that the market was a much better Business Confidence reading, which is why traders went ‘short’ in the currency. However, this was immediately retracted by a bullish candle that recovered all the losses.

EUR/AUD | Before the announcement

EUR/AUD | After the announcement

The above images belong to the EUR/AUD currency pair. We can see that before the news release, the market is in a strong uptrend signifying the great amount of weakness in the Australian dollar since it is positioned at the right-hand side of the currency. Since it is an uptrend, we will look to buy the currency pair after the price retraces a ‘support’ or ‘demand’ area.

After the news release, the market continues to move higher, and the ‘news candle’ closes with some bullishness. We observe a similar impact of the Business Confidence numbers announcement on this pair as well, which initially weakens the currency but finally strengthens it. All the best!

Tags Business Confidence, Companies, Economic Indicators, Forex Drivers, Forex Fundamentals, Fundamental Analysis, Macro Economics

Forex Signals

USD/CAD Violates Descending Triangle Pattern – An Update on Signal!

Post author By Ali B.
Post date 13 August, 2020
No Comments on USD/CAD Violates Descending Triangle Pattern – An Update on Signal!

During Thursday’s European trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair failed to stop its Asian session from losing streak and dropped further below the mid-1.3200 level, mainly due to the U.S. dollar weakness triggered by gloomy U.S. economic outlook and lingering uncertainty over the U.S. stimulus package.

On the other hand, the weaker oil prices due to the OPEC bearish fuel demand prediction, and US-China on-going war, undermined the commodity-linked currency the loonie which helped the currency pair to limit its deeper losses. Currently, the USD/CAD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3215 and consolidating in the range between 1.3209 – 1.3257.

Considering the on-going condition between the US-China, China’s Assistant Commerce Minister said he hopes the U.S. will create conditions for the implementation of the phase-1 trade deal. He further added that the COVID-19 and U.S. export control measures hurt Chinese purchases on U.S. goods and services. However, traders gave little attention to the above statement.

On the other hand, the on-going deadlock over additional stimulus measures to support the economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic also weighed on the market risk sentiment.

This, in turn, the broad-based U.S. dollar failed to gain bullish momentum and reported losses on the day as the United States was still fighting the coronavirus. However, the weakness in the U.S. dollar kept the pair under pressure.

At the crude oil front, the WTI crude oil prices remain depressive around $42 levels as fears about the lower oil demand fueled after the OPEC said in its monthly report that the fuel demand will likely fall more than expected. This statement initially overshadowed the U.S. government data, which showed a decline in inventories and suggested that demand is recovering despite the coronavirus pandemic. However, the losses in the crude oil undermined the commodity-linked currency the loonie, which helped limit the pair’s deeper losses.

Looking forward, the market players will closely follow the release of the U.S. Initial Weekly Jobless Claims, which will affect the USD price dynamics and produce some meaningful direction for the currency pair. In the meantime, the traders will also keep their eyes on the news concerning the U.S./China.

Technically, the USD/CAD has formed a descending triangle pattern that provided support at 1.3235 level, and it has now been violated. The USDCAD pair has violated the double bottom support area of 1.3235 level. Closing of candles below this level confirms a breakout; therefore, the odds of further selling below the 1.3235 level increase, and it can lead to USD/CAD prices until 1.3160. A slight bullish retracement could be seen until 1.3235 level before the pair continues trading lower. Check out the trade plan…

Entry Price – Sell 1.32282
Stop Loss – 1.32682
Take Profit – 1.31882
Risk to Reward – 1:1
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.

iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368

Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

Tags Forex Trading Signal, Fundamental Analysis, Support and Resistance, Technical Analysis, Technical Outlook, USD/CAD

Forex Signals

Gold Signal Hits Stop Loss – What’s Next to Expect?

Post author By Ali B.
Post date 13 August, 2020
No Comments on Gold Signal Hits Stop Loss – What’s Next to Expect?

On Thursday, the precious metal gold firmed above $1,900 as the dollar declined, with bargain hunters posting on a resumption of bullion’s broader upwards trend brought by its recent steep slide from a record peak. On the positive side, U.S. President Donald Trump showed too much optimism about the U.S. economy during the White House press conference on early Thursday morning in Asia. As per Trump’s keywords, “U.S. economic performance significantly better than Europe.”

He also said, ” We’re doing amazingly well with the coronavirus (COVID-19) and therapeutics.” However, these positive statements helped the equity market limit its deeper losses and capped the further upside for the yellow metal prices. On the positive side is the Republican leader’s willingness to cut payroll taxes after the November month elections.

Meanwhile, the upbeat market performance could also be associated with the reports that President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Robert Steven Kaplan keep pushing the government for further unemployment benefits while refraining from imposing any lockdowns retractions. At the coronavirus front, the COVID-19 cases remain on the card and continue to affect the U.S. economic recovery. As per the latest report, the figures have crossed almost 5.2 million cases in the U.S. alone as of August 13, as per the Johns Hopkins University and millions unemployed.

Considering the failure of agreeing on the coronavirus (COVID-19) relief package, the broad-based U.S. dollar was down on Thursday morning in Asia. Although market investors have stuck between optimism and uncertainty over the delayed package, some claimed that U.S. economic recovery depended on both sides reaching an agreement. Moreover, the weaker U.S. dollar could also be associated with the on-going doubt about the U.S. economic recovery amid intensifying coronavirus cases. Whereas, the losses in the U.S. dollar become the key factor that kept the gold prices supportive as the price of gold is inversely related to the U.S. dollar price.

Speaking about the signal, it was doing pretty well as we tried to trade the choppy session within 1,953 – 1,910 level. Unfortunately, the market reversed right before hitting our take profit. Our stop loss was too tight, considering the current level of volatility in the market. For now, the precious metal is trading at 1,930, and the upper and lower boundary of 1,953 to 1,910 level is providing resistance and support, respectively. You can either take a sell trade below 1,953 level or buy trade over 1,910 support. Good luck!

Tags Forex Trading, Fundamental Analysis, Gold, Technical Analysis, Trading Signal, XAU/USD

Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, August 13 – Crypto Loans Entering the Market; Bitcoin Temporarily Stuck at $11,600

Post author By Ilija Rankovic
Post date 13 August, 2020
1 Comment on Daily Crypto Review, August 13 – Crypto Loans Entering the Market; Bitcoin Temporarily Stuck at $11,600

The cryptocurrency market had a day where almost no cryptocurrencies ended up in the red. Even though the gains were mostly small, only five cryptocurrencies lost in the past 24 hours. Bitcoin is currently trading for $11,582, which represents an increase of 1.88% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum gained 4.37% on the day, while XRP gained 1.11%.

Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

When talking about top100 cryptocurrencies, Numeraire gained 161.01% on the day, making it the most prominent daily gainer. Aragon (90.43%) and BitShares (41.67%) also did great. On the other hand, Divi lost 4.38%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by Compound’s loss of 2.5% and Aave’s loss of 1.85%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s dominance level has decreased slightly since we last reported, with its value currently at 60.84%. This value represents a 0.53% difference to the downside when compared to yesterday’s value.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The cryptocurrency market cap experienced a major increase in value since we last reported. Its current value is $358.92 billion, which represents an increase of $13.32 billion when compared to yesterday’s value.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

After a day of sharp decline, Bitcoin spent the day trying to restore the lost value. However, while the largest cryptocurrency by market cap did gain a few percent and rose to $11,600 levels, the $11,630 resistance seems to be holding the price in place quite well. Bitcoin will need to pass this level confidently (and soon), or BTC bears will consider this the start of a bear move.

BTC traders should look for an opportunity when BTC crosses $11,630.

BTC/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical factors:

Price is currently below its 50-period EMA but above its 21-period EMA
Price is slightly above its middle B.B
RSI is neutral (48.49)
Volume is decreasing

Key levels to the upside Key levels to the downside

1: $11,630 1: $11,460

2: $12,000 2: $11,090

3: $12,300 3: $10,850

Ethereum

Ethereum had a slightly better day than its rival Bitcoin in terms of gains, as it returned to the level it was on the night before the selloff. However, the $400 level seems like it has great resistance, and it is yet unknown whether ETH will be able to break it. The move that will break $400 needs to be extremely strong, and it will most likely be caused by BTC’s move to the upside.

Traders should look for an opportunity when Ethereum breaks $400 or collapses after failing to do so.

ETH/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical Factors:

Price is above its 21-period EMA and its 50-period EMA
Price is between its middle and top B.B.
RSI is elevated (58.91)
Volume is average

Key levels to the upside Key levels to the downside

1: $400 1: $361

2: $415 2: $340

3: $496 3: $302

Ripple

Unlike Bitcoin and Ethereum, XRP did not have such a good day today. The third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap did end up in the green on the day, but it failed to break the $0.285 level. Breaking this level is key to pushing further towards the upside, but the 21-period and 50-period moving average are also above the price and very near $0.285, making it incredibly difficult for XRP to move towards the upside.

Traders can look for an opportunity right after XRP breaks $0.285.

XRP/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical factors:

Price is below its 21-period and 50-period EMA
Price is slightly below its B.B.
RSI is neutral (42.19)
Low volume

Key levels to the upside Key levels to the downside

1: $0.285 1: $0.266

2: $0.31 2: $0.245

3: $0.32 3: $0.235

Tags bitcoin, BTC, Crypto, Crypto Trading, cryptocurrency, Daily Brief, ETH, Ethereum, Fundamental Analysis, Ripple, Technical Analysis, trading, XRP

Forex Fundamental Analysis

GDP from Construction – Exploring The Fundamental Forex Driver

Post author By Reddy Shyam Shankar
Post date 12 August, 2020
No Comments on GDP from Construction – Exploring The Fundamental Forex Driver

Introduction

Construction is the very first phase of an expected economic growth, which is more evident in the developing economies compared to the developed economies. New buildings, infrastructures, renovations are an indication of an expanding economy. GDP from construction is an important economic indicator to assess financial health and future economic expansion trends.

Construction

It is a part of the Secondary (Industry) Sector of an economy. Construction refers to building and infrastructure works in all areas. The Construction Sector includes all physical making of infrastructures like bridges, transportation systems (roads, railways), dams, irrigation systems, naval ports, airports, pipelines, apartments, buildings, houses, commercial buildings, corporate structures, etc.

How can the GDP from Construction numbers be used for analysis?

The Construction Industry’s Economic Output is a significant economic indicator that is closely watched by both the private and public sectors. It is especially crucial for developing economies like China, as it is their main contributor to GDP. The GDP from Construction figures assist Central Authorities in policy reforms & economic-decisions.

Growth is essentially a process of invention of new things and discarding the old inefficient ones. Construction, in this sense, is nothing but that. It involves the erection of new buildings, renovations, expansions of the infrastructures that are currently existing. Increased GDP from Construction involves more people getting employed, better wages in the sector, and the extra demand for raw materials, etc. Hence we can say that the act of construction itself has a ripple effect on the economy.

Secondly, the GDP from the construction of corporate infrastructures or commercial structures implies that the constructed structures will be used for further economic activities. For example, a company doubling its company size is planning to double its staff and correspondingly the business that it generates. Hence, GDP from Construction figures improvement is indicative of an improvement in many other sectors.

All these improvements correlated with GDP overall also stimulate consumer confidence and encourages consumer spending, which further stimulates the economy and boosts growth. The Secondary Sector is composed of Industrial Output and Construction Output. For most countries, Industrial Output will be the dominant contributor to the GDP from the Secondary Sector.

We analyze GDP from Construction to understand the associated implications that more economic growth will be followed. For example, the construction of new power plants, or manufacturing industries, would show higher GDP from Construction this year. But the subsequent years, we will see higher GDP due to the newly added Industrial Outputs.

Hence, GDP from Construction figures can be used to assess future economic growth. Everything that is constructed is most likely to bring revenue through its usage in the future. Hence, GDP from Construction improvements can be a leading indicator for further improvements in GDP down the line.

The global Construction Industry makes up 13% of the World GDP, which is more than the Agriculture sector, which is about 7% of the World GDP. It means, overall, the global economy is improving at a rapid pace, with the Industrialization of many economies. It is forecasted to grow to 15% in 2020. China, India, and Japan are flourishing in this era with rapid Industrialization and achieving high GDP Growth Rates ranging from 5-20% in recent years.

GDP from construction can be used by investors to know which countries are transitioning from Developing Economies to Developed Economies. As GDP from Construction increases, it would be followed by GDP growth through increased Industrialization. Further down the line, the economies would transition to the services Sector as their main contributor to GDP.

Impact on Currency

The GDP from Construction is not a high impact indicator when compared to measures like GDP and GDP Growth Rates. GDP from construction does not portray the entire picture of the economy. However, it can be an essential tool for the Central Authorities to keep track of Construction Sector performance and its relative implications over the economy.

What construction is occurring can also serve as an indication of the economy type going to be built over the coming years. But, for the international currency markets, it does not serve as a useful indicator. It is a proportional and lagging indicator. Higher GDP from Construction is great for the economy and its corresponding currency, and vice-versa.

Sources of GDP from Construction

For the US, the corresponding reports are available here – GDP -BEA, GDP by Industry – BEA, and Construction – GDP. World Bank also maintains the Construction and Industrial Sector as a percentage of GDP on its official website, which can be found here – Industrial Sector (including construction) – World % of GDP. GDP from construction can also be found here – GDP Construction – World – Trading Economics.

GDP from Construction Announcement – Impact due to news release

The construction sector is one of the fastest-growing sectors today that has a great impact on the economy of any nation. Construction is one crucial sector that contributes to the economic growth of a country. The government and other regulatory authorities have always shown interest in this segment by investing significantly in various parts of the sector. Naturally, it will contribute to the GDP of a country and influence the reading released quarterly and monthly. When talking about the fundamental analysis of a currency or stock, investors make investment decisions based on the GDP and not on contributions made by individual sectors.

Now let’s analyze the impact of GDP on different pairs and witness the change in volatility due to the news release. For this purpose, we have gathered the latest GDP data of Japan, where the below image shows the fourth quarter’s GDP data released in March.

AUD/JPY | Before the announcement

We will first look at the AUD/JPY currency pair to observe the impact of GDP announcement on the Japanese Yen. In the above picture, we see the market has crashed lower due to some other news release, and currently, the price is at its lowest point. This means there is a great amount of selling pressure in the market, or sellers are dominant. In such a market situation, it is advised not to carry any position in the market before the news release.

AUD/JPY | After the announcement

After the news announcement, the price sharply moves higher and closes as a long bullish candle. This means traders sold Japanese Yen soon after the news release as it was below expectations and lower than the previous quarter. The volatility did increase to the upside for a while, but it did not sustain as the Japanese Yen was showing a lot of strength. One should trade after the market shows signs of trend continuation or reversal and not just based on the GDP data.

GBP/JPY | Before the announcement

GBP/JPY | After the announcement

The above images represent the GBP/JPY currency pair, where we see that the market has strongly moved lower as indicated by two big bearish candles before the news announcement. This means the Japanese Yen has gotten strong recently due to some other fundamental reason, and we cannot ascertain if this will continue or not. As volatility is very high, one should not take a position in the currency before the news release.

After the news announcement, volatility spikes to the upside, and the ‘news candle’ closes with a great amount of bullishness. Even though the price moves higher by a lot, it did not go above the moving average. The market has reacted adversely to the news announcement as the GDP was lower than last time and also below what was forecasted. If the price does cross moving average, this means the downtrend is still intact.

NZD/JPY | Before the announcement

NZD/JPY | After the announcement

The above pictures are that of the NZD/JPY currency pair, where we see a major crash in the market before the news announcement, which is visible in the first image. This pair also shows similar characteristics as in the above currency pairs, where the Japanese Yen has strengthened greatly. Ideally, we should be looking to sell the currency pair after a suitable price retracement.

After the news announcement, the market goes higher so much that it almost retraces the previous bearish candle, resulting in some weakness in the Japanese Yen. As the GDP data was weak, it brought disappointment in the market where traders sold the Japanese Yen and bought the base currency. Cheers!

Tags Construction, Education, Forex, Forex Fundamental Analysis, Forex Trading, Fundamental Analysis, GDP, GDP from Construction, Macro Economic Indicators, Macro Economics, trading

Forex Signals

EUR/USD Manual Close at 20 Pips Loss – Reason Explained!

Post author By Ali B.
Post date 12 August, 2020
No Comments on EUR/USD Manual Close at 20 Pips Loss – Reason Explained!

The EUR/USD pair traded in a bearish mode earlier today when we opened a sell trade at 1.17132. However, every soon, the market sentiment started to change, and the EUR/USD pair started forming a bullish setup. We decided to cut the minor loss in the EUR/USD pair, instead of keeping it until it hit loss.

As we see now, the EUR/USD has formed three white soldiers’ candlestick patterns suggesting strong bullish bias in the EUR/USD pair. On the higher side, the EUR/USD may head further higher until the 1.1799 level. The hope provided by Trump raised US dollar bars in the market, and that pulled EUR/USD pair from its daily high to below 1.1800 level.

Meanwhile, the risk sentiment was also disturbed by the fears of escalating China-US tensions, as China announced that it would also impose sanctions on 11 Americans in retaliation to the US same sanctions on Hong Kong & Chinese officials. The list of Americans to be sanctioned by China included Senator Macro Rubio and Ted Cruz also.

The faded risk sentiment weighed on EUR/USD pair and pair started to lose its daily gains.

At 17:30 GMT, the Core PPI from the US for July rose to 0.5%from the 0.1% of expectations and supported the dollar. The PPI for July also rose to 0.6% from the expected 0.3% and came in favor of the dollar.

The better than expected PPI data from the US added strength to the US dollar and added pressure to EUR/USD pair, causing it to lose all daily gains and close at the same level the market was opened.

The EUR/USD is trading at 1.1790 level, heading to test the triple top resistance level of 1.1800 level. The closing of candles below 1.1800 level can drive more selling in the pair until the 1.1760 level is met. On the higher side, the EUR/USD pair may find resistance at 1.1835 level after 1.1800 level. In contrast, support continues to stay at 1.1759. Let’s wait for the next entry from our side. Good luck!

Tags EUR-USD, EURUSD, Forex, Forex Trading, Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis, Technical Outlook

Forex Signals

Gold Signal Offers Another +150 Pips Profit – What’s Next?

Post author By Ali B.
Post date 12 August, 2020
No Comments on Gold Signal Offers Another +150 Pips Profit – What’s Next?

Earlier today, we managed to close another exciting trade in gold, capturing 153.6 green pips. The precious metal gold bounced back over $1,900 per ounce as soft U.K. data revived concerns across a the coronavirus-driven economic slowdown and backed bullion erase primary losses fired by a resurgent dollar.

Emphasizing the economic loss produced by the pandemic, data revealed Britain’s economy contracted by a record of 20.4% between April and June, the most significant reduction announced by any major economy so far.

Despite the reducing number of virus cases in the U.S., the doubts remain about the U.S. economic recovery. As per the latest report, the COVID-19 crossed over 20 million cases reported as of August 11 as per the Johns Hopkins University data. But Texas, New York, and California reported declining numbers of hospitalizations.

Apart from the virus woes, the long-lasting tussle between the world’s two largest economies remained on the cards as bt nation fired shoots each other. It is worth restating that the Dragon Nation took revenge from the U.S. by imposing the sanctions on 11 American yesterday. The move comes after the U.S. sanctioned 11 Chinese officials and their allies in Hong Kong, including Hong Kong’s Chief Executive Carrie Lam. This statement capped the further upside in the equity market and helped gold prices to gain a bit of support.

Despite the intensifying conflict between US-China, the PBOC Governor expressed an upbeat tone while saying, “China will continue implementing the phase-one economic and trade agreement with the United States. This statement gave some breath to the investors.

On the technical side, the precious metal gold has tested the upward trendline support level of 1,877 level. Closing above this trendline is also suggesting buying trends in the gold. We took a buy trade at 1893.06 with a stop loss at 1894.42 and took profit at 1908.42. For now, the gold is holding at 1,932 level, and gold is facing resistance at 1,940. Above this, the next resistance stays at 1,955 level. Let’s wait for the market to extend another goos setup, and we will share the next trading signal. Stay tuned.!

Tags Forex, Fundamental Analysis, Gold, Technical Analysis, XAU/USD

Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, August 12 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Stronger Dollar Continues to Play!

Post author By Ali B.
Post date 12 August, 2020
No Comments on Daily F.X. Analysis, August 12 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Stronger Dollar Continues to Play!

On the news side, the eyes will remain on the UK GDP and U.S. CPI figures. U.S. inflation is expected to drop, and it can impact the U.S. dollar negatively. Conversely, the UK GDP figures are anticipated to have improved, but the prelim GPD seems to perform badly. A mixed response can be seen in news releases.

Economic Events to Watch Today

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.17393 after placing a high of 1.18078 and a low of 1.17217. Overall the movement of the EUR/USD pair remained flat throughout the day.

In the first session of Tuesday, EUR/USD pair took bids and surged above 1.18050 level, but after the release of U.S. economic data, the EUR/USD pair started to decline and posted losses. The pair ended its day on the same level it started its day with and hence, gave a smooth movement throughout the day.

The fresh risk appetite droved the rise in the EUR/USD pair amid the registration of the first coronavirus vaccine from Russia. Russia became the first country to register its vaccine for coronavirus, and this news gave a push to heavy risk appetite in the market.

The stock markets rushed to their higher level on this news, and the riskier currency Euro also gained from it in the early trading session. The gains continued after the release of macroeconomic data from the European side.

At 14:00 GMT, the ZEW Economic Sentiment for Eurozone in August surged to 64.0 against the expected 55.3 and supported the single currency. The ZEW Economic Sentiment for Germany surged to 71.5 from the anticipated 57.0 and supported Euro. The better than expected economic sentiment for the month gave strength to a single currency and pushed EUR/USD pair above 1.18050 level.

However, the gains could not last for long as the U.S. President Donald Trump announced that he was very seriously considering a capital gains tax cut to help job creation. If Trump gave another executive order on capital taxation, it would likely face legal challenges as it would push the boundaries of the President’s executive orders.

Daily Technical Levels

Support	Pivot	Resistance
1.1704	1.1756	1.1790
1.1670		1.1842
1.1618		1.1876

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.1720 level, testing the triple bottom support level of 1.1714 level. Closing of candles below 1.1710 level can drive more selling in the pair until 1.1639 level. On the higher side, the EUR/USD pair may find resistance at 1.1793 level. Three black crows on the 4-hour timeframe are suggesting odds of selling trend continuation in the EUR/USD.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.30470 after placing a high of 1.31318 and a low of 1.30413. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained bearish throughout the day. The GBP/USD pair dropped on Tuesday and posted losses as the unemployment benefits claims surged in the local country and also because of the strength of the U.S. dollar onboard.

At 04: 01 GMT, the BRC Retail Sales Monitor from Great Britain surged to 4.3% from the expected 2.5% and supported British Pound. At 11:00 GMT, the Claimant Count Change for July rose to 94.4K from the expected 9.7K and weighed heavily on British Pound. The Unemployment Rate from the U.K. came in as 3.9% in June and fell short of expectations of 4.2% and supported GBP.

The most important data on Tuesday was the clamant count change from the U.K. that showed that more people applied for unemployment benefits in July. According to the Office of National Statistics, around 730,000 people have become unemployed since March this year, and since June, further 114,000 people have lost their jobs.

However, the jobless rate remained flat at 3.9% in June; this reflected that the number of people who had given up looking for work increased.

The ONS Deputy national statistician, Jonathan Athow, said that the labor market had continued its recent fall in employment and significantly reduced work hours because many people were furloughed.

The people without a job and those who were not even looking for a job but wanted to work increased as the demand for workers was depressed.

It is also believed that the full extent of Britain’s’s job problems has been hidden under the Government’s furlough scheme, which promised to cover 80% of the salaries of workers who could not work due to lockdown.

Daily Technical Levels

Support	Pivot	Resistance
1.3016	1.3074	1.3107
1.2983		1.3165
1.2925		1.3197

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On Tuesday, the GBP/USD consolidates at 1.3067 level, holding right above the 50 periods EMA support area of 1.3040 level while the bearish breakout of 1.3040 level can extend selling unto 1.2918 level. Recently as we can see in the chart above that the GBPUSD pair has violated its upward trendline that supported the pair around 1.3130 level, and now below this, we can expect GBP/USD to continue trading bearish. The GBP/USD should show a bearish crossover to confirm a strong selling bias in the Cable. On the higher side, Sterling may find resistance at 1.3105 and 1.3175. Let’s consider selling below 1.3045 level today.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 106.491 after placing a high of 106.682 and a low of 105.870. Overall the movement of the USD/JPY pair remained bullish throughout the day. The USD/JPY pair extended its previous day gains and rose for the 3rd consecutive day on Tuesday amid increased risk appetite in the market. The Russian vaccine, U.S. Stimulus package, Trump’s executive orders, and the rise of the equity market drove Tuesday’s move of USD/JPY pair.

In the early session of Tuesday, the President of Russia, Vladimir V. Putin, announced that the Russian government had approved the world’s first coronavirus vaccine. Putin said that his daughter had taken the vaccine in a cabinet meeting, and it has worked adequately enough to declare it safe.

However, global health authorities have said that the vaccine has to complete the last stage of clinical trials to be approved. Despite this, Mr. Putin thanked the scientists in a congratulatory note to the nation who developed the vaccine. He also said that it was “the first” very important step for Russia and generally for the whole world.

Scientists in Russia and other countries said that rushing to offer the vaccine before final-stage testing could backfire. Tens of thousands of people are included in the final stage of trials, and it could take months to prove its effectiveness.

However, investors cheered the news of the vaccine as it was long-awaited, and as in result, the risk appetite of the market rose. The equity markets surged that weighed on the safe-haven Japanese Yen, which ultimately pushed the USD/JPY pair higher, which keeps challenges the upbeat market tone. In the meantime, the White House National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien blamed China while saying that the “Chinese hackers have been targeting U.S. election infrastructure ahead of the 2020 presidential election.” These gloomy updates capped further upside in the currency pair by giving support to the safe-haven Japanese yen.

As a result of the upbeat U.S. data, the broad-based U.S. dollar succeeded in gaining some positive traction on the day. Still, the bullish bias in the U.S. dollar is expected to be short-lived as doubts remain about the U.S. economic recovery amid on-going coronavirus cases. However, the gains in the U.S. dollar became the key factor that kept the currency pair higher.

Daily Technical Levels

Support	Pivot	Resistance
106.0400	106.3700	106.8200
105.5900		107.1500
105.2600		107.6000

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY trades sharply bullish to break out of the sideways trading range of 106.480 – 105.440. Bullish crossover of 106.480 level is opening further room for buying until 107.450 level. The RSI and MACD are also supporting bullish bias in the pair. A recent bullish breakout of 106.450 level can extend the buying trend until 107.390. The current market price of USDJPY is staying over 50 EMA, which extends support at 105.950 and may push the pair higher. Let’s consider buying above 106.480 level today. Good luck!

Tags Daily Brief, EUR-USD, Forex, Fundamental Analysis, GBP-USD, Support and Resistance, Technical Analysis, Technical Outlook, trading, USD-JPY

Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, August 12 – Crypto Selloff Brings Bitcoin to $11,000 Mark; What’s Next?

Post author By Ilija Rankovic
Post date 12 August, 2020
No Comments on Daily Crypto Review, August 12 – Crypto Selloff Brings Bitcoin to $11,000 Mark; What’s Next?

The cryptocurrency market was in the red in the past 24 hours, with most altcoins’ prices falling down over 5%. Bitcoin is currently trading for $11,375, which represents a decrease of 4.05% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum lost 4.84% on the day, while XRP lost 7.59%.

Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

When talking about top100 cryptocurrencies, Compound gained 31.08% on the day, making it the most prominent daily gainer. Swipe (16.13%) and Maker (12.37%) also did great. On the other hand, Band Protocol lost 16.42%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by yearn.finance’s loss of 14.86% and Nervos Network’s loss of 14.41%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s dominance level has increased slightly since we last reported, with its value currently at 61.39%. This value represents a 0.17% difference to the upside when compared to yesterday’s value.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The cryptocurrency market cap experienced a major decrease in value since we last reported. Its current value is $345.60 billion, which represents an increase of $7.98 billion when compared to yesterday’s value.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

Bitcoin experienced a large selloff as a result of bulls failing to successfully break the $12,000 mark. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap fell to $11,090 support level before rallying slightly to $11,400 levels. However, Bitcoin might have another bullish move as the RSI is dangerously close to the oversold territory while the volume is high, and since the $11,090 support level held up nicely, Bitcoin confirmed it almost certainly will not go below.

BTC traders should look for an opportunity when BTC makes another move towards the upside and breaks $11,460.

BTC/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical factors:

Price is currently below its 50-period EMA, as well as its 21-period EMA
Price is above its lower B.B
RSI is near the oversold territory (35.52)
Volume is decreasing from above-average levels

Key levels to the upside Key levels to the downside

1: $11,460 1: $11,090

2: $11,630 2: $10,850

3: $12,000 3: $10,500

Ethereum

Ethereum also experienced a selloff, partly because of not being able to go past $400 and partly because of Bitcoin’s move towards the downside. The price broke the triangle formation to the downside (as we said in the previous article) as there was not enough pressure for it to get past the $415 mark. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap tested the $361 support, which held up nicely and did not let ETH fall below. Ethereum is now at the $375 mark and is showing no signs of dropping further below.

Traders should look for a trade opportunity when Ethereum makes a bounce towards the upside or falls below $361.

ETH/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical Factors:

Price is below its 21-period EMA and its 50-period EMA
Price is at its bottom B.B.
RSI is near the oversold territory (33.99)
Volume is average

Key levels to the upside Key levels to the downside

1: $400 1: $361

2: $415 2: $340

3: $496 3: $302

Ripple

XRP was no different than Bitcoin and Ethereum in terms of the direction of its movement throughout the day, but it did differ in terms of intensity of the move. The third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap lost over 8% of its value at one point, as bears took over the market when XRP couldn’t break $0.31. The price fell to as low as $0.266 but quickly recovered to its current position ($0.278).

Traders can look for an opportunity to trade after XRP breaks $0.285.

XRP/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical factors:

Price is below its 21-period and 50-period EMA
Price is slightly above its bottom B.B.
RSI is near the oversold territory (35.64)
Low volume (slightly increased)

Key levels to the upside Key levels to the downside

1: $0.285 1: $0.266

2: $0.31 2: $0.245

3: $0.32 3: $0.235

Tags bitcoin, BTC, Crypto, Crypto Trading, cryptocurrency, Daily Brief, ETH, Ethereum, Fundamental Analysis, Ripple, Technical Analysis, trading, XRP

Forex Fundamental Analysis

What Is ‘GDP from Mining’ and What Should You Know About This Economic Indicator?

Post author By Reddy Shyam Shankar
Post date 11 August, 2020
No Comments on What Is ‘GDP from Mining’ and What Should You Know About This Economic Indicator?

Introduction

The tracking of GDP from Mining can give us many economic conclusions. GDP from Mining’s importance comes from the fact that the final output of Mining Production is the primary input for many industries. Therefore, it is the core part of the business activity related to many industries.

Fluctuations in the GDP from Mining data will eventually translate to all the industries that are dependent on Mined resources for their production process. This effect can be many-fold, and hence it is a vital economic indicator for investors, economists, and government authorities.

Mining Production

It refers to the entire process of searching for, extraction, beneficiation (purification), and processing of naturally occurring minerals from the Earth. Minerals that are typically mined can be Coal, metals like Copper, Iron, Zinc, or industrial minerals like limestone, potash, and other crushed rocks.

Coal is considered as one of the primary sources of energy across the world. Metals like Iron, Bauxite, and Copper have a wide range of usage in various industries. Limestone and other rocks are being used in cement industries, which contribute a lot to the construction and related industries.

How can the GDP from Mining numbers be used for analysis?

The developing economies are primarily achieving their growth through exports of essential commodities like Food, Minerals, etc. For example, Australia primarily exports Iron Ore and Coal, due to which the economic growth and currency value are tightly linked to the Mining of these natural resources. When the GDP from Mining starts to recede, currency devaluation and slowing economic growth are inevitable.

Developed economies are more resilient to changes in GDP from Mining, as their growth is tied to multiple sectors and are not heavily dependent on any individual sector. The availability of modern technology and skilled labor contribute to the GDP from Mining figures positively. Mining is a labor-intensive task. Hence, it is obvious that Mining lies at the heart of all industrial activities. A decrease in GDP from Mining can adversely affect all the dependent industries, and correspondingly the effects will pass onto unemployment, layoffs, wages, economic slowdown, etc.

Impact on Currency

The GDP from Mining is a low impact indicator, as the Mining Production reports are published monthly by the Federal Reserve in the United States that are leading indicators. It is a proportional and lagging indicator. Hence, changes in GDP from Mining would have already been priced into the market through monthly Mining Production reports.

Also, GDP from Mining numbers does not give us a complete picture of the economy. However, it can be an important tool for the Central Authorities to keep track of the performance of the Mining Sector and its implications for the economy. As established, the Mining Sector is a significant contributor, due to many industries dependent on its output.

Hence, changes in this sector widely affect the overall economic health, and all the dependent industries therein. In general, Higher GDP from Mining is good for the economy and its currency, and vice-versa.

Sources of GDP from Mining

For the US, the BEA reports are available here – GDP -BEA & GDP by Industry – BEA. For the world data below, two are useful references – Mineral Rents – World % of GDP & GDP from Mining – Trading Economics. The monthly Mining Production statistics can be found on the official website of the Federal Reserve for the United States, which can be found here – G7 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

GDP from Mining Announcement – Impact due to news release

Mining is an extremely important economic activity in any country. The benefits of Mining have been widely promoted by the industry and institutions such as the World Bank. In several low and middle-income countries rich in non-fuel resources, Mining makes significant contributions to the national economic development as measured by the Mining Contribution Index (MCI-Wr).

The contribution of Mining and Minerals to GDP reached a maximum at the peak of the mining boom in 2011. Now, the figures indicate a decline in the Mining’s contribution but are still considerably higher than before. This is one of the reasons why it not a major determinant of economic growth. Thus, investors do not give importance to the mining data when it comes to investing in an economy.

In today’s lesson, we will try to examine the impact of GDP on various currency pairs and see the volatility change due to the news release. The below snapshot shows the previous, predicted, and actual GDP data of Switzerland released in the month of March. As this is the quarter on quarter GDP data, we can expect moderate to high volatility in the currency during the announcement.

GBP/CHF | Before the announcement

Let’s review the GBP/CHF currency pair to observe the impact of the news release. We see that the market has made a ‘descending triangle‘ candlestick pattern before the news announcement, which essentially is a trend continuation pattern. Depending on the impact of the news release, we will take a suitable position in the currency pair.

GBP/CHF | After the announcement:

After the news announcement, we see a sudden surge in the price indicating bullishness in the currency. The bullish ‘news candle’ suggests a negative reaction to the GDP data as it was on expected lines with no major increase or decrease. The market appears to have broken above the ‘descending triangle’ pattern, which is why we should need to wait for clear signs from the market with respect to the direction it is heading.

CAD/CHF | Before the announcement

CAD/CHF | After the announcement

The above images represent the CAD/CHF currency pair, where we see that the market seems to be in a downward channel before the news announcement with the price at the bottom of the channel. Since the impact of GDP is high, there is a high chance that the news release could result in a break down if the data comes out to be weak for the economy. Therefore we need to wait for confirmation from the market before we can take a trade.

After the news release, the price moves higher and volatility increases on the upside. Since the GDP data was pretty much equal to the forecasted number, it did not result in bullishness in the currency, and it ultimately weakened the currency for a while. One who takes a ‘buy’ trade should take profits at the top of the channel and not wait for too long.

AUD/CHF | Before the announcement

AUD/CHF | After the announcement

The above charts belong to the AUD/CHF currency pair, where we see that before the news announcement, the market is moving within a ‘range.’ This means the price is not moving in any single direction, which can make trading a bit challenging in such an environment. The news release can effectively move the market in any direction, which is why we need to wait for the announcement to happen in order to get clarity.

After the news release, the price moves lower, but this gets immediately bought, and the ‘news candle’ closes with a wick on the bottom. We witness buying pressure in the market soon after the news release. we to be cautious before taking a ‘long’ position since the price is at the top of the ‘range.’ All the best!

Tags Economic Indicators, Education, Forex, Forex Fundamental Analysis, Fundamental Analysis, GDP, GDP Mining, Gross Domestic Product, Macro Economics, mining, Mining Production, trading

Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, August 11 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Stronger Dollar In Play!

Post author By Ali B.
Post date 11 August, 2020
1 Comment on Daily F.X. Analysis, August 11 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Stronger Dollar In Play!

On the news front, the economic calendar is a bit light and may not be offering any major economic release. Therefore, we need to trade based upon stronger dollar sentiment, as traders are likely to price better than expected NFP data from last week.

Economic Events to Watch Today

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.17363after placing a high of 1.18005 and a low of 1.17358. Overall the movement of the EUR/USD pair remained bearish throughout the day. The EUR/USD pair extended its previous day’s losses on Monday amid the strong U.S. dollar and increasing US-China tensions. The main driver of the EUR/USD pair on Monday was the U.S. dollar.

The U.S. Dollar was strong across the board with the U.S. Dollar Index at 93.5 level, with investors taking comfort from President Donald Trump’s move to boost the economy in the wake of coronavirus pandemic.

Over the weekend, U.S. President Trump signed a series of executive orders aimed at enhancing the economic condition. The orders included an extension of expanded jobless benefits at a lower rate of $400 a week. It was down from the previous $600 a week. The State government will pay 1/4th of the bill, which was also included in Trump’s order.

However, it is not clear that the executive orders can withstand court scrutiny as the power relies on Congress. Nevertheless, the President’s orders were an attempt to play his part in breaking the impasse. Though the talks between Republicans & Democrats on August 7 broke some of the differences, they still did not show any consensus. The new round of talk is expected to resume at some point, but the date is not yet confirmed.

The chances for a $3 trillion stimulus package have been compromised to $2 trillion by Democrats, but that is still a trillion more than the framework that the ruling party aimed for. Additionally, the JOLTS Job Openings data from the U.S. on Monday came in as 5.89 M in June in comparison to 5.30M of forecasts and supported the U.S. dollar that weighed on EUR/USD pair.

From the Europe side, the Sentix Investor Confidence for August dropped to -13.4 from the anticipated -16.0 and the previous -18.2 and supported Euro that kept the losses of EUR/USD pair limited on Monday.

Meanwhile, early on Monday, the Defence Ministry of Taiwan said that a Chinese jet fighter crossed the median of the Taiwan Strait line, possibly in response to the U.S. Health Secretary Alex Azar’s visit to Taipei.

Any form of American recognition of the island nation Taiwan that China claimed its own make Beijing angry, and hence, it responded. The tensions in Taiwan have grown since the Hong Kong clash between the U.S. & China.

Besides this, the world’s biggest nations are also clashing over the technological front; recently, the U.S. banned American firms from dealing with TikTok and WeChat app. However, the most important matter between both countries lies with the fulfillment of the phase-one trade deal. Negotiators from both sides are scheduled to meet this week to analyze the achievements of the deal. The risk-off market sentiment was picking its pace after the escalation of US-China tensions, and it has weighed on the riskier pair EUR/USD.

Daily Technical Levels

Support	Pivot	Resistance
1.1713	1.1758	1.1780
1.1691		1.1825
1.1646		1.1848

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The single currency Euro slipped against the U.S. dollar amid increased USD demand as traders started to price in stronger than expected NFP data released on Friday. The EUR/USD is now bouncing off the support level of the 1.1728 level. It may head higher towards 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.1768, and above this, the next resistance can stay at 1.1765 level, which marks 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.30730 after placing a high of 1.31032 and a low of 1.30188. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. The GBP/USD pair rose on Monday ahead of key data due later this week, despite the U.S. dollar’s strength. The risk sentiment favored some of the factors, and investors believe that further upside could be on the horizon.

The latest higher move in the Pound was because of the key economic data, including the update of the labor market and second-quarter GDP scheduled to be released later this week. Moreover, the GBP/USD pair was also supported by the improving risk sentiment in the market after the hopes about the US-China phase-one trade deal became optimistic.

The U.S. trade representative and U.S. Treasury Secretary will meet the Chinese Vice Premier later this week to evaluate the implementation of the phase-one trade deal by China. China has assured that it will fulfill its promises made under the agreement that include the increased U.S. farm purchases and the better protection of Intellectual property rights.

This faded some of the risk-off market sentiment and caused GBP/USD to surge.

The risk sentiment was backed by the comments of WHO Chief Scientist Dr. Soumya Swaminathan, who praised the global efforts in the development of the COVID-19 vaccine. She reported that almost 200 vaccines were being developed globally and were in the stage of clinical or pre-clinical trials. According to her, 24 vaccines had entered the clinical trials in human beings.

The unprecedented global efforts to develop the coronavirus vaccine triggered the risk-on market sentiment as various potential paths to the end of coronavirus gave hope to the investors. The improved risk appetite gave a push to GBP/USD pair on Monday.

On Brexit front, the U.K. media has suggested that David Frost remain the U.K.’s chief Brexit negotiator and will stay on committed to securing an agreement with the European Union even if a deal is not secured by the end of September.

The U.K. formally left the E.U. in January after voting to leave in 2016, and negotiations to reach post-Brexit trade deal are currently deadlocked because both sides have failed to reach a consensus on various matters.

As the end of the transition periods is getting closer day by day, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has vowed to end the year with or without a deal, outside Europe. David Frost is set to take up a new position as National Security Advisor (NSA) in September. However, his position as Chief Brexit Negotiator will remain in place.

Meanwhile, the U.K. government pledged a further 20 Million Pounds in aid to Lebanon following Tuesday’s deadly explosion in Beirut. The U.K.’s support will directly go to the injured and people displaced by the explosion. It will also provide food, medicine, and urgent supplies to the needy in Lebanon affected by the explosion.

The U.K. government has already given 5 Million Pound to the emergency relief effort and said that it would stand by the Lebanese people in the hour of need. This also helped GBP in recovering its position and pushed GBP/USD pair higher on Monday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support	Pivot	Resistance
1.3024	1.3064	1.3110
1.2978		1.3150
1.2938		1.3196

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair succeeded to break its previous session thin trading range and rose above 106.00 marks mainly due to the broad-based U.S. dollar fresh strength, buoyed by the Friday’s better-than-expected employment report, which eventually helped the U.S. dollar to put the bids.

On the other hand, the upbeat market sentiment, backed by the optimism that the U.S. policymakers are showing signs to resume talks about the stimulus package, undermined the safe-haven Japanese yen and contributed to the pair’s gains. In the meantime, the risk-on market sentiment was further bolstered by the upbeat key U.S. and China data, which tends to urge buyers to invest in riskier assets instead of safe-have assets. Currently, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 106.00 and consolidating in the range between 105.72 – 106.06.

Despite concerns about the ever-increasing coronavirus cases across the world and worsening US-China relations, the investors continued to cheer the hopes of the U.S. fiscal stimulus package triggered by the signs that White House officials and congressional Democrats showed a willingness to compromise on another stimulus package to bolster the stalled economy.

On the other hand, U.S. President Donald Trump fulfilled his promise to take executive action as the U.S. Congress failed to offer any outcome over the country’s latest stimulus measures. As a result, U.S. President Trump’s signed four executive orders to release unemployment claim benefits, help with student loans, and aid those living in a rented house, which also exerted a positive impact on the market trading sentiment and contributed to the currency pair losses.

Moreover, the upbeat market sentiment was being supported by Friday’s better-than-expected employment report. Details suggested Non-farm payrolls increased by 1.763 million in July month, vs. the estimated 1.6 million increase. The unemployment rate also declined to 10.2% in July, compared to June’s reading of 10.5%.

Despite the positive data, the doubts remain about the U.S. economic recovery amid the on-going surge in the coronavirus cases. As per the latest report, the U.S. crossed the five million COVID-19 cases as of August 10, according to Johns Hopkins University. Whereas Australia’s 2nd-most populous state, the epicenter of the pandemic, Victoria, reported the biggest single-day rise in deaths. As per the latest figures, Australia’s coronavirus death losses crossed 314 as Victoria announces a daily record of 19 deaths and 322 new cases in the past 24 hours.

Apart from the virus woes, the long-lasting struggle between the world’s two largest economies remained on the cards as U.S. President Donald Trump turned off the business tap for China’s TikTok and WeChat. As well as, the U.S. imposed sanctions on the Hong Kong Leader Carry Liam, which keeps challenges the upbeat market tone. In the meantime, the White House National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien blamed China while saying that the “Chinese hackers have been targeting U.S. election infrastructure ahead of the 2020 presidential election.” These gloomy updates capped further upside in the currency pair by giving support to the safe-haven Japanese yen.

Daily Technical Levels

Support	Pivot	Resistance
105.6900	105.9500	106.1900
105.4500		106.4500
105.1900		106.7000

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY has made a slight bullish recovery from 105.780 to 106.150 area, especially after examining the 38.2% Fibonacci support level of 105.650. A bullish breakout of 106.467 resistance level can drive more buying until the next resistance area f 107.198. On the lower side, the USD/JPY may find support at 105.600 and 105.078, extended by the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The current market price of USDJPY is staying over 50 EMA, which extends support and may push the pair higher. Let’s consider buying above 105.750 level today. Good luck!

Tags Daily Brief, EUR-USD, EURUSD, Forex, forex services, Forex Trading, Fundamental Analysis, GBP-USD, GBPUSD, Price Action, Support and Resistance, Technical Analysis, trading, USD-JPY, USDJPY

Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, August 11 – yEarn Finance Token Explodes After Binance Listing; BTC Hashrate Unaffected by the Price Upswing

The cryptocurrency market tried to catch up to Bitcoin after it pushed up yesterday. Bitcoin is currently trading for $11,938, which represents an increase of 1.26% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum gained 1.27% on the day, while XRP lost 4.73%.

Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

When talking about top100 cryptocurrencies, yearn.finance gained 50.03% on the day, making it the most prominent daily gainer. JUST (39.71%) and Terra (28.27%) also did great. On the other hand, Balancer lost 13.90%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by Band Protocol’s loss of 9.52% and iExec RLC’s loss of 6.35%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s dominance level has decreased slightly since we last reported, with its value currently at 61.22%. This value represents a 0.56% difference to the downside when compared to yesterday’s value.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The cryptocurrency market cap has increased since we last reported. Its current value is $363.58 billion, which represents an increase of $0.89 billion when compared to yesterday’s value.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

Bitcoin has spent the day trying to regain what’s been lost after the failed attempt to break the $12,000 mark. However, the price doesn’t seem like it will be able to push past this level unless a surge in volume and bull pressure happens. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is locked between $11,630 and $12,000. When it comes to moves towards the downside, Bitcoin is well protected by the 21-period and 50-period moving averages.

BTC traders should look for an opportunity when BTC makes another push and breaks $12,000.

BTC/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical factors:

Price is currently above its 50-period EMA, as well as its 21-period EMA
Price between its middle B.B (20-period SMA) and its top B.B.
RSI is neutral (56.12)
Volume is decreasing

Key levels to the upside Key levels to the downside

1: $12,000 1: $11,630

2: $12,330 2: $11,460

3: $13180 3: $11,090

Ethereum

Ethereum was quite stable in the past 24 hours, making small gains in an attempt to catch up to Bitcoin’s gains that happened yesterday. However, if we take a look at this month’s price movement, we can interpret the moves as a triangle formation, which will make a breakout very soon. It is more likely that the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap will break the triangle formation towards the downside unless Bitcoin’s move pushes it up.

Traders should look for a trade opportunity when Ethereum breaks the formation.

ETH/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical Factors:

Price is above its 21-period EMA and its 50-period EMA
Price is slightly below its top B.B.
RSI is neutral (56.42)
Volume decreasing

Key levels to the upside Key levels to the downside

1: $400 1: $361

2: $415 2: $340

3: $496 3: $302

Ripple

XRP is the cryptocurrency that gained the most in the past 24 hours (when compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum) as its price increased close to 5% on the day. The third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap made another push towards the $0.31 resistance level, but the move failed to even reach the level, let alone break it.

Traders can look for an opportunity to trade XRP within the range it is currently in.

XRP/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical factors:

Price is above its 21-period and 50-period EMA
Price is above its top B.B.
RSI is slightly elevated (58.52)
Low volume (slightly increased)

Key levels to the upside Key levels to the downside

1: $0.31 1: $0.285

2: $0.32 2: $0.266

3: $0.3328 3: $0.245

Tags bitcoin, BTC, Crypto, Crypto Trading, cryptocurrency, Daily Brief, ETH, Ethereum, Fundamental Analysis, Ripple, Technical Analysis, trading, XRP

Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, August 10 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Market Prices In NFP Outcome!

Post author By Ali B.
Post date 10 August, 2020
1 Comment on Daily F.X. Analysis, August 10 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Market Prices In NFP Outcome!

On the news front, eyes will be on the low impact events such as Sentix Investor Confidence from Eurozone and JOLTS Job Openings from the U.S. Besides, the stronger NFP data may keep dollar bullish.

Economic Events to Watch Today

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD prices were closed at 1.17849 after placing a high of 1.18829 and a low of 1.17550. Overall the movement of the EUR/USD pair remained bearish throughout the day. The EUR/USD pair broke under the 1.1800 level and reached 1.175 the lowest in 3 days after the U.S. dollar took its pace and outperformed in the market. The greenback rebounded from its two years low and trimmed its weekly losses on Friday that weighed on EUR/USD pair.

The rising tensions between the U.S. & China have already driven the U.S. dollar higher, and the U.S. jobs data on Friday added further strength to it. The latest development in the US-China conflict was the U.S. imposed sanctions on officials in Hong Kong and China, including Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam, over the suspension of protests in the territory.

On the data front, at 11:00 GMT, the German Industrial Production for June increased to 8.9% from the forecasted 8.3% and supported Euro. The German Trade Balance also came in positive as 14.5 B against the expected 10.3 B. At 11:45 GMT, the French Industrial Production for June increased to 12.7% against the forecasted 8.6% and supported Euro. The French Prelim Private Payrolls for the quarter came in as -0.6% against the anticipated -1.0%.

The French Trade Balance for June came in negative as 8.0B against the projected -7.1B and weighed on Euro. The Italian trade Balance at 13:00 GMT came in line with the expectations of 6.23 B.

Investors failed to cheer the positive data from Europe as the U.S. dollar was stronger on Friday, and the sharp decline in Turkish Lira over the past week exerted downside pressure on Euro.

A sharp selloff triggered the Euro’s correction in Turkish Lira that dropped it to the lowest of 2 years, the historic currency crisis of August 2018. The reserves of Central Banks of Turkey (CBRT) went negative for a couple of weeks, which caused a surge in the Turkish Lira’s selloff. However, last month, CBRT made a massive purchase of gold and overtook Russia as the world’s largest gold purchaser. In the lira currency crisis of 2018, Euro underperformed during that time period, and this has raised fears that if the history repeated, then downside risks for Euro can be seen.

However, on the U.S. front, at 17:30 GMT, the Average Hourly Earnings for June increased to 0.2% from the forecasted -0.5% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Non-Farm Employment Change suggested that 1.8M jobs were created in June against the expectations of 1.6B and supported the U.S. dollar. In the month of June, the Unemployment Rate also fell to 10.2% from the expected 10.5% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The strong U.S. dollar weighed heavily on EUR/USD pair and dragged its prices to the level below 1.8000 on Friday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support	Pivot	Resistance
1.1773	1.1783	1.1792
1.1764		1.1802
1.1754		1.1812

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD pair retraced lower to trade at 1.1793 level. On the upside, the EUR/USD may encounter resistance at 1.1865 and 1.1909 mark. A bullish breakout at this level can extend the buying trend to 1.2050. Today, the EUR/USD is likely to find support at 1.17650 level, and below this, further selling can be seen until the 1.1713 level. Let’s keep a focus on 1.1805 level to stay bearish below this in the EUR/USD pair.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.30521 after placing a high of 1.31492 and a low of 1.30092. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained Bearish throughout the day.

The Pound to U.S. dollar exchange rate fell by -0.3% on Friday to a low of 1.3000. The Sterling fell against the U.S. dollar after the concerning comments from the UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak, who warned that the extended furlough scheme would only give false hopes to the people. Mr. Sunak said that it was wrong to trap the people in a situation and pretended that there was always a job that they can go back to.

However, apart from this downbeat comment, Mr. Sunak also raised hopes for a possible Brexit deal and said that he was confident that there was a possibility to get an agreement with the E.U. by September. As in result, GBP investors became hopeful that there was possible progress in the EU-UK trade talks.

On the data front, the Halifax House Price Index for July rose from 0% to 1.6% and beat the expectations of 0.2%. However, the GBP investors failed to cheer the U.K.’s positive data as the U.S. dollar was strong across the board on Friday.

The U.S. dollar gained traction on the board on Friday after the release of better than expected U.S. jobs data. The latest US Non-Farm Employment Change suggested an increase in the number of jobs created in June by the U.S. Department of Labor & Statistics to 1.8M from the expected 1.5M and helped the U.S. dollar gain traction.

The Average Hourly Earnings from the U.S. also rose to 0.2% from the previous -1.3% and the expected -0.5% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Unemployment Rate for June dropped to 10.2% against the expected 10.5% and May’s 11.1%. The less unemployment rate from the U.S. showed that the U.S. economy was moving on the recovery side even after the widespread coronavirus cases across the country.

The better than expected U.S. jobs data weighed heavily on GBP/USD pair and dragged it to 1.3000 level on Friday. The Sterling traders will be looking ahead to Monday’s release of the latest Retail Sales figures from the U.K. Any improvement in the U.K.’s retail sector would provide strength to Sterling.

The U.S. Dollar Investors will be looking at the publication of the US NFIB business optimism index for July. The demand for safe-have greenback can be lifted after any improvement in the outlook for the American economy. On Tuesday, the release of the U.K.’s ILO unemployment rate report for June. If the figures came in equal to 3.9% or less, we could see the GBP/USD pair go on the upward as fears of high unemployment will be diminished.

Daily Technical Levels

Support	Pivot	Resistance
1.3037	1.3052	1.3065
1.3024		1.3080
1.3010		1.3093

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD consolidates at 1.3067 level, holding right above the 50 periods EMA support area of 1.3040 level while the bearish breakout of 1.3040 level can extend selling unto 1.2918 level. Recently as we can see in the chart above that the GBPUSD pair has violated its upward trendline that supported the pair around 1.3130 level, and now below this, we can expect GBP/USD to continue trading bearish. The GBP/USD should show

a bearish crossover in order to confirm a strong selling bias in the Cable. On the higher side, Sterling may find resistance at 1.3105 and 1.3175. Let’s consider selling below 1.3045 level today.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 105.912 after placing a high of 106.055 and a low of 105.478. Overall the movement of the USD/JPY pair remained bullish throughout the day. After falling for two consecutive days and staying flat for a day, USD/JPY pair rose and posted gains on Friday amid strong U.S. dollar comeback.

Since two years after U.S. President Donald Trump decided to ban U.S. transactions with two popular Chinese apps, the U.S. dollar rebounded from the lowest level. During the occasions of massive conflicts between the U.S. & China, the U.S. dollar has often preferred as a refuge, and on Friday, the U.S. dollar again used this status.

The U.S. President Donald Trump officially banned American companies from working with TikTok, the video streaming app, and WeChat, the social messaging app. the action to ban these companies was taken in response to the widespread fears of data privacy. However, the chances that the US-China conflict will rise further increased after this move, and hence, the U.S. dollar gained.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury imposed sanctions on 10 top officials from Hong Kong and China, including the Hong Kong Leader Carrie Lam, as the protests arose in the territory against the new security law in Hong Kong.

Furthermore, the U.S.’s macroeconomic data also remained supportive of the U.S. dollar when it came to better than expectations on Friday.

At 17:30 GMT, the highlighted Average Hourly Earnings rose to 0.2% in June from the negative expectations of -0.5% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Non-Farm Employment Change rose to 1763K from the forecasted 1530K and came in favor of the U.S. dollar. The greenback was also supported after the Unemployment rate for June also dropped to 10.2% from the expected 10.5%. In June, the better-than-expected U.S. jobs data gave a push to the U.S. dollar that added further strength to USD/JPY pair on Friday.

However, the gains remained limited as the data from Japan was also supportive of its local currency. At 04:30 GMT< the Average Cash Earnings for the year from Japan came in as -1.7% against the forecasted -3.0% and supported the Japanese Yen. The Household Spending for the year from Japan also came in as -1.2% against the expectations of -7.8% and supported the Japanese Yen. However, the Leading Indicators from Japan were released at 10:00 GMT, came in line with the expectations of 85.0%.

The positive data from Japan supported Japanese Yen on Friday that kept a check on USD/JPY pair gains. On the vaccine front, the risk sentiment was supported by the news that Russia was all set to register the world’s first COVID-19 vaccine next week. The Russian vaccine third phase trials were currently in progress, and Russia announced to disclose them on August 12. This vaccine was developed by the collaboration of the Russian Defence Ministry and the Gamaleya Research Institute.

The improvement in risk sentiment weighed on safe-haven Japanese Yen and contributed to the USD/JPY pair’s gains.

Daily Technical Levels

Support	Pivot	Resistance
105.8200	105.8900	105.9300
105.7800		106.0000
105.7200		106.0400

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY continues to trade at 105.780 area with the bullish sentiment, especially after testing the 38.2% Fibonacci support level of 105.650. On the lower side, the USD/JPY may find support at 105.600 and 105.078 level, which is extended by the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. A bullish breakout of 106.467 resistance level can drive more buying until the next resistance area f 107.198. The current market price of USDJPY is staying over 50 EMA, which extends support and may push the pair higher. Let’s consider buying above 105.600 level today. Good luck!

Tags EUR/CHF, Forex, forex services, Forex Trading, Fundamental Analysis, GBPUSD, Price Action, Support and Resistance, Technical Analysis, Technical Outlook, Trade Setup, trading, USDJPY

Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, August 10 – Chainlink Surpasses LTC’s Market Cap Despite Major Bearish Signals

Post author By Ilija Rankovic
Post date 10 August, 2020
1 Comment on Daily Crypto Review, August 10 – Chainlink Surpasses LTC’s Market Cap Despite Major Bearish Signals

The cryptocurrency market had an interesting weekend, with Bitcoin pushing towards 12,000 and actually passing it at the time of writing. Bitcoin is currently trading for $12,003, which represents an increase of 2.24% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum gained 0.18% on the day, while XRP lost 0.11%.

Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

When talking about top100 cryptocurrencies, Balancer gained 45.17% on the day, making it the most prominent daily gainer. Band Protocol (32.27%) and Nervos Network(26.64%) also did great. On the other hand, Flexacoin lost 16.27%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by Decentraland’s loss of 9.91% and Elrond’s loss of 6.81%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s dominance level has increased slightly since we last reported, with its value currently at 61.78%. This value represents a 0.28% difference to the upside when compared to Friday’s value.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The cryptocurrency market capitalization has increased since we last reported. Its current value is $362.67 billion, which represents an increase of $3.77 billion when compared to Friday’s value.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

Bitcoin has spent the weekend pushing towards $12,000 and finally passing it in a major push just a couple of hours ago. However, the price didn’t fully (or at all) establish itself above the major mark. Bitcoin will need to confirm its position above $12,000 (and confidently) before being considered as officially above it. For now, this level is still a resistance level.

BTC traders should look for an opportunity to make a trade when BTC confirms its position above or below $12,000.

BTC/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical factors:

Price is currently above its 50-period EMA, as well as its 21-period EMA
Price above its top B.B.
RSI is elevated (65.89)
Volume elevated (on the increase)

Key levels to the upside Key levels to the downside

1: $12,000 1: $11,630

2: $12,330 2: $11,460

3: $13180 3: $11,090

Ethereum

Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum spent the weekend without much movement towards the upside. However, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap did fall back to the $361 level and tested its support, which held up quite nicely. Once the price bounced back to its previous highs, it continued slowly moving towards the upside, but without any real strength. Ethereum still has a way to go before it reaches past $400.

Traders should look for a trade opportunity when Ethereum increases its volume.

ETH/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical Factors:

Price is above its 21-period EMA and its 50-period EMA
Price is slightly below its top B.B.
RSI is elevated (58.51)
Volume increasing slightly

Key levels to the upside Key levels to the downside

1: $400 1: $361

2: $415 2: $340

3: $496 3: $302

Ripple

XRP had quite a turbulent weekend, with its price failing to stay above the previously broken triangle formation levels. This happened as, even though XRP managed to break the triangle formation to the upside, it did not reach past the $0.31 resistance level. Instead, bears stepped into the market and brought the price down to below $0.285 levels (at one point). However, the $0.285 level held up and XRP has confirmed its position above this support.

Traders can look for an opportunity to trade when XRP reaches the $0.31 mark and decides if it will reach above it or fall below once again.

XRP/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical factors:

Price is above its 21-period and 50-period EMA
Price is slightly above its middle B.B. (20-period SMA)
RSI is neutral (51.45)
Low volume

Key levels to the upside Key levels to the downside

1: $0.31 1: $0.285

2: $0.32 2: $0.266

3: $0.3328 3: $0.245

Tags bitcoin, BTC, Crypto, Crypto Trading, cryptocurrency, Daily Brief, ETH, Ethereum, Fundamental Analysis, Ripple, Technical Analysis, trading, XRP

Forex Fundamental Analysis

Understanding ‘GDP from Services’ As A Macro Economic Indicator

Post author By Reddy Shyam Shankar
Post date 8 August, 2020
No Comments on Understanding ‘GDP from Services’ As A Macro Economic Indicator

Introduction

The different proportion of contribution to GDP from the three sectors (primary, secondary, tertiary) can tell us a lot about the economic development stage a country is at the moment. GDP from Services can help us gauge the transition of countries from developing to developed status efficiently. Hence, it is useful for Central Authorities and business people to understand the growth of the Service Sector.

What is GDP from Services?

Service Sector

It refers to the production of intangible goods, services to be exact, that are not goods. Services are intangible, non-quantifiable, and formless. The result of service may or may not produce a physical good. For example, a construction service would give the client a building, whereas a lawnmowing service would not. It is the largest sector in the global economy and bears high significance in advanced economies.

How can the GDP from Services numbers be used for analysis?

The three different sectors of an economy are associated with different activities. The primary sector is mainly associated with dealing with agriculture, farming. It answers the basic needs. The secondary sector deals with industrialization, where livelihood, employment are answered through the production of goods.

The tertiary sector comes into picture when the basic needs like food, employment, security are taken care of. The tertiary sector consists mainly of services. Countries that have Service Sector as their main contributor to GDP are generally considered the more advanced economies. Indeed, the underdeveloped nations will primarily struggle for food and water, where Agriculture would be the primary need to feed the population.

The industrialization growth will be associated with low-cost wage labors working in factories for mass production to compete in the global market. Whereas, the service sector will be associated with high-cost services generally to provide “good-to-have” commodities.

For example, a vegetable is cheaper than an industrial product. Likewise, an industry product would be cheaper than a service sector like antivirus software. The cost of a 1kg of potato is about 2.50 US dollars, whereas 1kg of potato chips from a company like lays would cost 10 US dollars, whereas a Netflix subscription (service) would cost around 10-15 dollars a month.

It is a general trend where a software employee (service sector) gets paid more than a factory worker (industrial sector). A factory worker generally gets paid more than a farmer (agricultural sector). It is easily observed the wealth generated from the Service Sector far outpaces that of the Industrial Sector and essentially the Agricultural Sector.

In general, countries start to grow from underdeveloped to developing nations through industrialization. China and Japan would be good examples of industrialization-led growth. Once a country has firmly established its primary and secondary sectors, it can reach the status of a developed economy through the service sector only. India and China would be good examples of developing economies, increasing their service sector to generate higher wealth.

Hence, GDP from Service is essential to assess the status of a country transitioning from an emerging or developing economy status to a developed economy. As the contribution of Service Sector to GDP increases, it implies that more percentage of people are engaged in higher revenue-generating activities, and have crossed the stages of addressing basic survival needs.

It is also essential to understand that GDP from Service can increase only when the country is firmly established and stable in the primary and secondary sectors. Because when primary and secondary needs are not answered, people will first engage in meeting primary needs and not providing services.

The developed economies have substantial contributions to GDP from Service Sector. For example, the United States and the United Kingdom, have about 80% of their GDP contributed from the Service Sector. Developing economies like India and China have over 50% of their GDP from Service Sector. Underdeveloped nations like Uganda have only 24% of the Service Sector.

Impact on Currency

Leading indicators like Services PMI or NMI already forecast the GDP from Service, which would mean the increases from GDP from Services is already priced into the market. It is a proportional and lagging indicator.

Also, GDP from Services does not paint the full picture of the economy. Still, it can be an essential tool for the Central Authorities to keep track of Service Sector performance and its relative implications to the economy. As established, the Service Sector is a significant contributor to the GDP in developing and developed economies.

Hence, Service Sector GDP improvements bring more prosperity to a nation than an equivalent improvement in Agriculture or Industrial GDP. Service Sector GDP increase brings wealth to a nation and improves the standard of living of its people better than any other sector. A country can become a developed nation only when its Service Sector GDP increases to 70-80% of its GDP.

In general, Higher GDP from Services is good for the economy and its currency, and vice-versa.

Sources of GDP from Services

For the United States, the BEA reports are available here – GDP -BEA & GDP by Industry – BEA. World Bank also maintains the Service Sector’s contribution as a percentage of GDP on its official website – Service Sector – World % of GDP & GDP from Services – Trading Economics.

GDP from Services Announcement – Impact due to the news release

In the previous section of the article, we saw the contribution made by the service sector to the GDP, and it’s importance in the growth of the economy. But when it comes to fundamental analysis of a currency, the service sector’s contribution alone is not of great importance to investors as it represents only a small portion of the whole GDP.

Therefore, traders and investors look at a broader figure, which is essentially the GDP itself, and take a currency position based on the GDP of a country. So an increase or decrease in the contribution of ‘Services’ to GDP does not have any impact on the currency.

Now, let’s analyze the impact of GDP on different currency pairs and observe the change in volatility due to the news release. The below image shows the latest quarter on quarter GDP data of New Zealand released in March.

NZD/JPY - Before the announcement

We will start with the NZD/JPY currency pair to examine the impact of GDP on the New Zealand dollar. The above chart shows the state of the market before the news announcement, where we see that the price was in a downtrend with the least number of retracements. Depending on the impact of the news release, we will position ourselves accordingly in the market. However, we should be looking to take a ‘short’ trade since the major trend of the market is down.

NZD/JPY - After the announcement

After the news announcement, the market moves lower by a little where the price closes, forming a bearish ‘news candle.’ The GDP data in the fourth quarter was lower than last time, which drove the price below the moving average. However, it did not cause a major crash in the market where the volatility slightly increased to the downside soon after the news release. One should wait for a price retracement before a ‘short’ trade.

NZD/CAD - Before the announcement

NZD/CAD - After the announcement:

The above images represent the NZD/CAD currency pair where we see in the first image the price violently moved lower, and few minutes before the news release, it has reversed from the ‘lows.’ Until the reversal is confirmed, we should be looking to sell the currency pair since the down move is very strong. Since a major news event is due, one should wait for its release and take a position based on the change in volatility.

After the news announcement, volatility expands on the downside, and the ‘news candle’ closes, forming a trend continuation pattern. The market reacted negatively to the GDP data since there was a decrease in the GDP by 0.3% in the fourth quarter. This can be taken as an opportunity for joining the downtrend where one can take a ‘short’ position with a stop loss above the ‘news candle.’

EUR/NZD - Before the announcement

EUR/NZD - After the announcement

The above images are that of the EUR/NZD currency pair, where the market is in an uptrend, and the price is currently at its highest point. The chart signifies weakness in the New Zealand dollar before the news announcement with no signs of strength. Technically, we will be looking to buy the currency pair after a pullback to a key technical level.

After the news announcement, the price moves higher and volatility expands on the upside, thereby further weakening the New Zealand dollar since it is on the right-hand side of the pair. At this point, one should be cautious by not taking a ‘long’ position as it would imply chasing the market. Cheers!

Tags Education, Forex, Forex Fundamental Analysis, Forex Trading, Fundamental Analysis, Fundamental Trading, GDP, Gross Domestic Product, Macro Economic Indicators, Macro Economics, Services

Forex Fundamental Analysis

Everything About GDP From Transport & Its Impact On The Forex Price Charts

Post author By Reddy Shyam Shankar
Post date 7 August, 2020
No Comments on Everything About GDP From Transport & Its Impact On The Forex Price Charts

Introduction

The Transportation Industry’s contribution to GDP is both direct and indirect. The real contribution of Transportation to overall economic growth goes beyond what the GDP can measure. Hence, Understanding the Role of Transportation in economic activity and its underlying importance that is both visible and subtle is essential for our overall fundamental analysis.

What is GDP from Transport?

Transportation

Transportation includes the types of services that are provided through operating vehicles, moving goods, or people over public transport systems like roads, railways, waterways, airways, etc.

The supply side of the Transportation system is called the Transportation Industry. It is also essential to note that the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) and North American Industrial Classification System (NAIC) both consider Transportation as a separate industry. They do so through a standard set of definitions and criteria. Hence, not all Transportation services come under the Transportation Industry.

The Transportation services’ contribution to GDP can be measured in the following ways:

Final Demand: It is calculated by adding all the expenditures by households, private firms, and the government on Transportation related goods and services.

Value Added: It is calculated as the GDP contribution by the Transportation services overall. Transportation Value Added is a gauge of the transportation sector’s contribution to GDP. It is based on the difference between transportation services sold value and the goods and services used to produce Transportation.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) takes industry value added to be a measure of an industry’s contribution to GDP.

From measurement viewpoint, three types of transportation operations can be distinguished:

For-hire operations: It includes those services conducted by transportation industries on a fee basis. A trucking company’s trucking operations is an instance of for-hire operations.

In-house operations: also called, own-account operations, is conducted by non-transportation industries for their use. For instance, the Coca-cola company may transport its beverages to its local warehouse for storage through its trucks.

Final user operations: Final users include the general population (end consumers) and the government who purchase transportation services like cars, trucks for their use.

Transportation Satellite Accounts: The Satellite industry segregates data by focusing on types of economic activity. Hence, the TSAs depict the contribution of for-hire, in-house, and household transportation services as they all form part of the Transportation Industry.

How can the GDP from Transport numbers be used for analysis?

The Transportation-related Final Demand metric is useful to compare the expenditures incurred on other industries like healthcare or housing. For sector-wise, growth analysis, investors can use this to gauge, which industries are experiencing increasing demand that can help them to invest accordingly.

On the other hand, it is not an accurate metric to measure the Transportation needed to support and sustain economic activity. For instance, if the investment into Transportation infrastructure is underfunded, then correspondingly, it will underestimate the final demand due to low economic output. The Transportation industry’s contribution in the year 2019 and 2018 has stayed around 3.2% of GDP as per BEA.

The value-added contribution of Transportation Industry to GDP is, however, understated for the following two reasons:

It only includes the contribution of for-hire transportation services. Many industries use transportation services for their use. In-house services do not contribute to GDP.
The extent to which industries depend on Transportation is not depicted in these figures. Mobility and interconnectivity between industries, states, and countries are critical factors in business growth in today’s interconnected international markets.

Accessibility to resources, end consumers are all enabled through Transportation and are heavily impacted with poor transportation infrastructure. The US Department of Transportation – Bureau of Transportation Statistics accounts for the TSA reports, and they, by far, depict the contribution of the Transportation industry better than other measures published.

Impact on Currency

GDP from transport does not paint the full picture of the economy but tells us the direct contribution of the Transport industry to the overall GDP. Still, for the International Markets, it does not serve as a useful indicator. It is a proportional and lagging indicator. Higher GDP from Transport is good for the economy and its corresponding currency, and vice-versa.

Sources of GDP from Transport

For the United States, the BEA reports are available here – GDP -BEA

We can use the GDP by Industry to get the transport’s contribution to GDP here –

GDP by Industry – BEA & Transportation Statistics –Annual Report – BTS

Transportation’s contribution to GDP for the world can be found here –

GDP from Transportation – Trading Economics

GDP from Transport Announcement – Impact due to news release

The main role of transport is to provide access to different locations to individuals and businesses. Transport facilitates a wider range of social and economic transactions than would otherwise be possible. Transport is an important sector in its own weight. Transport infrastructure and transport operations together account for more than 5% of the country’s GDP. In developed countries, further investment in that infrastructure will not only result in economic growth but also improve the quality of life, lower costs to access resources and markets, and improve safety.

Therefore, the transport sector is an important sector of the economy that many long-term benefits associated with it. Fundamentally speaking, investors would not invest based on a currency based on the contribution made by the transport sector alone, as its direct influence on the GDP is less. The transport industry indirectly helps in boosting the GDP by assisting in all business activities.

In today’s article, we will observe the impact of GDP on various currency pairs and observe the change in volatility because of its news announcement. For illustration, we have collected the latest GDP data of Switzerland, which was released in March. The below image shows that the GDP in the fourth quarter was slightly better than expectations and higher than the previous quarter.

USD/CHF | Before the announcement

Let us start with the USD/JPY currency pair in order to analyze the impact of GDP on the Swiss Franc. In the above Forex price chart, we see that the overall trend of the market is down where recently the price is moving in a ‘range.’ After the occurrence of a trend continuation pattern, a ‘sell’ trade can be taken with less risk. Conservative traders should wait for news releases and trade after the volatility settles down.

USD/CHF | After the announcement

After the news announcement, the price marginally increases that takes the market higher by just a few pips. We can argue that the GDP data had the least impact on the currency pair and did not induce any volatility in the market. As the data was as expected, it did not turn the market downside, and it moves as usual.

EUR/CHF | Before the announcement

EUR/CHF | After the announcement

The above images represent the EUR/CHF currency pair, it is clear that before the news release, the market is in an uptrend, and few minutes before the release, the price has been moving within a ‘range.’ This means the news event could either result in a continuation of the trend or a reversal of the trend.

Hence it is recommended to wait for the news announcement to watch the impact it makes on the price chart. After the news announcement, there is a slight increase in volatility to the downside after the close of news candle resulting in strengthening of the Swiss Franc. However, the ‘news candle’ itself appears to be impact-less, where there is hardly any change in price during the announcement.

NZD/CHF | Before the announcement

NZD/CHF | After the announcement

The above images are related to the NZD/CHF currency pair, where we see that the market is moving sideways before the news announcement. Just before the release, the price is close to the bottom of the ‘range.’ As the impact of these numbers is less, aggressive traders can take ‘long’ positions when technically the location is supporting for a ‘buy.’

After the news announcement, the market moves higher, and there is an increase in volatility to the upside. Since the GDP was not extremely bullish or bearish, the market did not react violently to the news release. Therefore, in such times we need to look at the charts from a technical angle. All the best!

Tags Education, Forex, Forex Drivers, Forex Fundamentals, Forex Trading, Fundamental Analysis, GDP, Gross Domestic Product, Macro Economic Indicators, trading, Transport

Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, August 07 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Big Day, NFP is Here!

Post author By Ali B.
Post date 7 August, 2020
1 Comment on Daily F.X. Analysis, August 07 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Big Day, NFP is Here!

The Non-farm payrolls will extend clarity over the damage in the labor market last month, and traders will keenly await its release. Overall, economists expect a slight improvement in the U.S. unemployment rate from 11.1% to 10.5%, while the Average Hourly Earnings are expected to improve from -1.2% to -0.5%%. The NFP itself is expected to report 1530K (negative for a dollar) vs. 4800K figures beforehand.

Economic Events to Watch Today

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD closed at 1.18640 after placing a high of 1.19048 and a low of 1.17927. The EUR/USD once again saw a bullish movement after a brief U.S. dollar recovery attempt earlier this week. Despite worsened coronavirus cases in some Eurozone nations, the bloc’s outlook remained much more optimistic than the U.S. outlook.

While the advances in the Euro have slowed, the EUR/USD pair has continued to trend higher over the past week. EUR/USD pair climbed slightly from 1.1656 to 1.1778 last week. After U.S. Dollar attempted to recover, the pair EUR/USD saw a brief dip at the beginning of this week. However, the EUR/USD pair is eventually rising again as the U.S. dollar’s weakness persists. Whereas, the potential for advances in the currency pair was limited as coronavirus concerns rose on Sunday. The Euro remained broadly appealing overall. Throughout the coronavirus pandemic, the E.U. and the European Central Bank have handled the crisis well compared to other major economies like the U.K. & U.S.

As a result, Euro’s losses in response to a rebounding U.S. dollar have been limited. The Euro and U.S. dollar has a negative correlation, and the Euro often gains from the U.S. dollar weakness. It means that the rally of the EUR/USD pair is set to continue even a rise in worsening coronavirus cases’ concerns.

The Euro appeal was also down after Spain saw a surge in coronavirus cases, and speculations arose that the Eurozone could face fresh lockdowns in Spain to support the Eurozone economy. On the U.S. dollar front, the greenback attempted recovery earlier this week; however, the gloomy outlook persisted and kept investors from mounting much of a recovery rally in the currency.

The number of coronavirus cases in the United States has increased to its highest, and the U.S. government and Federal Reserve have only taken mixed action to limit the virus spread and protect the U.S. economy. Attempts to push further stimulus have been stuck in U.S. Congress, and Federal Reserve may become more dovish.

On the data front, at 12:15 GMT, the Spanish Services PMI fell short of expectations of 52.3 and came in as 51.9. The Italian Services PMI for July came in as 51.6 against the expectations of 51.6 and supported Euro.

At 12:50 GMT, the French Final Services PMI for July dropped to 57.3 against the expected 57.8 and weighed on Euro. At 12: 55 GMT, the German Final Services PMI dropped to 55.6 against the forecasted 56.7. The Final Services PMI for the whole bloc fell to 54.7against the forecasted 55.1and weighed on EURO.

Later today, eyes will remain on the Non-farm payrolls will extend clarity over the damage in the job market last month, and traders will eagerly await its release. Overall, economists expect a slight improvement in the U.S. unemployment rate from 11.1% to 10.5%, while the Average Hourly Earnings are expected to improve from -1.2% to -0.5%%. The NFP itself is expected to report 1530K (negative for a dollar) vs. 4800K figures beforehand.

Daily Technical Levels

Support	Pivot	Resistance
1.1802	1.1854	1.1915
1.1740		1.1968
1.1688		1.2029

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD pair retraced lower to complete 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1817 level. On the higher side, the EUR/USD pair may find resistance at 1.1909 level, and the closing of candles below this level can keep bearish pressure on EUR/USD. A bullish breakout of this level can extend the buying trend until 1.2050. Today, the EUR/USD is likely to find support at 1.1800 level. Let’s keep an eye on NFP as it may drive sharp price action in the EUR/USD pair.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD closed at 1.31133 after placing a high of 1.31614 and a low of 1.30528. The pound rose on Wednesday to remain on course for a third-straight weekly gain against the U.S. dollar and ignored weaker than expected economic data ahead of the Bank of England meeting on Thursday. Previously, the Final Services PMI in July came in as expected 56.5 points and indicated expansion in the services sector in the U.K.

This Thursday, the focus will be on the Bank of England’s monetary policy decision and Andrew bailey’s speech. England’s central bank is anticipated to keep interest rates unchanged but will roll out its forecasts on a range of economic measures, including Inflation, GDP, and unemployment. In recent weeks, debates have been under discussion about the BoE’s cutting of rates below zero, but Thursday’s meeting is unlikely to offer detailed insight.

The NIRP (Negative Interest Rate Policy) has been under active review at the Bank of England, but it seems like a little too early for the central bank to make any decisive move. Some analysts expect that the Bank of England will prefer to use a negative interest rate until the EU-UK relationship for 2021 gets cleared.

On the U.S. front, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change dropped to 167K from the expected 1200K in July. It means that the U.S. government introduced 167K jobs only while that weighed on the U.S. dollar and added strength to the GBP/USD pair gains.

However, in July, the Final Services PMI rose to 50.0 from expected 49.6, and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI rose to 58.1 from expected 55.0. This showed an expansion in America’s services sector in July and supported the U.S. dollar that weighted on additional gains in GBP/USD pair.

Another reason for the rise in GBP/USD pair was the weakness of the U.S. dollar. The ever increasing numbers of coronavirus cases dampened the prospects for a swift economic recovery in the U.S. and forced investors to continue dumping the greenback. This, coupled with the delay in the U.S. fiscal stimulus package’s announcement and further pressurized the U.S. dollar.

The U.S. dollar was so under pressure that even the goodish rebound in the U.S. Treasury bond yields failed to support the U.S. dollar.

Apart from this, the rising number of coronavirus cases in the U.K. and the renewed fears of no-deal Brexit, as both sides were lagging in securing a deal, held investors to place any aggressive bullish position in the GBP/USD pair ahead of BoE monetary policy.

Daily Technical Levels

Support	Pivot	Resistance
1.3060	1.3111	1.3166
1.3005		1.3217
1.2954		1.3271

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD consolidates at 1.3127 level, holding right above the double bottom support area of 1.3103 level while the bearish breakout of 1.3105 level can extend selling unto 1.3058 level. Recently as we can see in the chart above, the GBPUSD pair has violated the upward trendline, which supported the pair around 1.3130 level. At the same level, the 50 EMA was extending support, but the GBP/USD showed a bearish crossover, suggesting further odds of selling in the Cable. On the higher side, Sterling may find resistance at 1.3176. Let’s consider selling below 1.3105 level today.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

A day before, the USD/JPY closed at 105.592 after placing a high of 105.871 and a low of 105.318. Overall the movement of the USD/JPY pair remained bearish throughout the day. The USD/JPY pair extended the decay on the back of the weaker U.S. dollar across the board and bank of Japan governor Kuroda’s speech telling that Japan’s economy will improve in the second half of the year.

The Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda warned that in order to contain the spread of public health measures were re-introduced, then the economic activity could be significantly constrained. He also affirmed that Japan was not slipping into deflation and that the central bank would continue with its efforts to achieve the inflation target of 2%. Kuroda again assured that the Bank of Japan would be ready to ramp up the monetary stimulus without hesitation if needed to aid the economy through the pandemic crisis.

Kuroda also said that Japan’s financial system was quite safe and stable and countered the fears that the banking sector would fall out from COVID-19. He also warned that there would be risks to Japan’s financial stability if pandemic prolonged longer than expected.

He said that Japanese and overseas economies would gradually improve from the second half of this year despite extremely high uncertainties. However, the pace of growth is expected to be moderate as the preventive measures to control the virus spread has its effects on economic activity.

On the other hand, the greenback was the worst performer in the currency market. It was so under pressure that it could not benefit from the latest round of economic data that showed an improvement in the Service Sector of the U.S. The rebound in the U.S. Treasury yield also could not support the U.S. dollar. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) was testing the 92.60 level lowest since last week.

On the data front, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change showed that the U.S. created 167,000 jobs in July against the estimated 1200K. This weighed on the U.S. dollar and added further in the losses of the USD/JPY pair.

The Trade Balance from the U.S. fell in line with the expectations of -50.7B. The Final Services PMI rose to 50.0 points in July than the expectations of 49.6 and supported the U.S. dollar. At the same time, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI also rose to 58.1 points from the forecasted 55.0 and came in favor of the U.S. dollar.

However, USD bulls did not cheer the positive data, and the U.S. dollar remained under stress to post losses on the day. On the US-China front, China’s ambassador to Washington said that China did not want to see a Cold War break out between China and the U.S. He suggested that both countries need to work to repair their relations that were under extraordinary stress.

Daily Technical Levels

Support	Pivot	Resistance
105.3100	105.6000	105.8800
105.0300		106.1700
104.7400		106.4500

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

Technically, the USD/JPY hasn’t changed much as USD/JPY continues to consolidate at 105.680 with bearish sentiment, especially after violating the 38.2% Fibonacci support level of 105.650. On the lower side, the USD/JPY may find support at 105.078 level, which is extended by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. A bearish breakout of 61.8% level can drive more selling until the next support area f 104.200. The current market price of USDJPY is staying below 50 EMA, which extends resistance at 105.650 level. Let’s consider selling below 105.650 level today. Good luck!

Tags Daily Brief, EUR-USD, Forex, Forex Trading, Fundamental Analysis, GBP-USD, Support and Resistance, Technical Analysis, Trade Setup, trading, USD-JPY, USDJPY

Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, August 7 – Goldman Sachs Launching its Own Stablecoin; DeFi Platforms Traffic Surging

Post author By Ilija Rankovic
Post date 7 August, 2020
1 Comment on Daily Crypto Review, August 7 – Goldman Sachs Launching its Own Stablecoin; DeFi Platforms Traffic Surging

The cryptocurrency market ended up mostly in the green, with Bitcoin continuing its path towards $12,000. Bitcoin is currently trading for $11,831, which represents an increase of 1.34% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum lost 0.18% on the day, while XRP gained 1.4%.

Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

When talking about top100 cryptocurrencies, Balancer gained 23.90% on the day, making it the most prominent daily gainer. Aave (20.29%) and Decentraland (15.99%) also did great. On the other hand, Aurora lost 12.10%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by Ampleforth’s loss of 7.98% and The Midas Touch’s loss of 5.50%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s dominance level has increased slightly since we last reported, with its value currently at 61.50%. This value represents a 0.02% difference to the upside when compared to yesterday’s value.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The cryptocurrency market capitalization has increased since we last reported. Its current value is $358.90 billion, which represents an increase of $5.42 billion when compared to the value it had yesterday.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

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Bitcoin

The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization kept increasing in price slowly throughout the day as sentiment turned even more bullish. However, the path towards $12,000 will not be easy, as the sell wall at the resistance is not small. On the other hand, if Bitcoin fails to break $12,000, it will create a double top and most likely fall down towards $11,630 and then $11,460 as well.

BTC traders should look for an opportunity to make a trade when BTC breaks $12,000 or fails to break it.

BTC/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical factors:

Price is currently above its 50-period EMA, as well as its 21-period EMA
Price is near its top B.B.
RSI is elevated (65.50)
Volume elevated (stable)

Key levels to the upside Key levels to the downside

1: $11,630 1: $11,460

2: $12,000 2: $11,090

3: $10,855

Ethereum

Ethereum spent the day flattening out its movement and mostly trading sideways. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization stayed below the $400 mark and couldn’t get past it. However, with volume dying down and such low volatility, we may expect an attempt to break the $400 (and then $415) level soon.

Traders should look for a trade opportunity when Ethereum increases its volume.

ETH/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical Factors:

Price is above its 21-period EMA and its 50-period EMA
Price is slightly above its middle B.B. (20-period SMA)
RSI is elevated (58.42)
Descending volume

Key levels to the upside Key levels to the downside

1: $400 1: $362

2: $415 2: $340

3: $496 3: $302

Ripple

XRP broke out from its triangle formation to the upside, but couldn’t reach past $0.31 mark. However, the pullback from a failed move didn’t discredit XRP’s break from the triangle formation, as the cryptocurrency managed to stay above the triangle. With the confirmed break, traders can expect XRP to either stay near $0.31 or push above it in the short-term unless some other catalyst sparks a movement to the downside.

Traders can look for an opportunity to trade when XRP breaks $0.31.

XRP/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical factors:

Price is above its 21-period and 50-period EMA
Price is below its middle B.B. (20-period SMA)
RSI is neutral (55.99)
Low volume

Key levels to the upside Key levels to the downside

1: $0.31 1: $0.285

2: $0.32 2: $0.266

3: $0.3328 3: $0.245

Tags bitcoin, BTC, Crypto, Crypto Trading, cryptocurrency, Daily Brief, ETH, Ethereum, Fundamental Analysis, Ripple, Technical Analysis, trading, XRP