Category: Forex Market Analysis

This section focuses on publications and analytical reports related to financial markets on a daily basis.

Main Features

Multiple asset-classes coverage
Neutral assessment of market conditions
Entry setups with relevant underlying price levels

Categories
Forex Signals

USD/CAD Bearish Continues to Dominate the Market- Sell Signal In-Play

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.29183 after placing a high of 1.29584 and a low of 1.29098. The USD/CAD pair dropped for the second consecutive day on Wednesday towards its lowest since October 2018 amid the broad-based US dollar weakness and rising crude oil prices.

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.29183 after placing a high of 1.29584 and a low of 1.29098. The USD/CAD pair dropped for the second consecutive day on Wednesday towards its lowest since October 2018 amid the broad-based US dollar weakness and rising crude oil prices.

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.29183 after placing a high of 1.29584 and a low of 1.29098. The USD/CAD pair dropped for the second consecutive day on Wednesday towards its lowest since October 2018 amid the broad-based US dollar weakness and rising crude oil prices.
The US dollar was weak across the board on Wednesday as the hopes for further stimulus relief bill from Congress rose day by day and calls for its from top officials. The prospects of a renewed stimulus bill to support the US economy through the pandemic crisis weighed on the local currency US dollar and weighed on the USD/CAD pair.

After the vaccine development from various drug companies, the ongoing risk sentiment also added weight to the safe-haven greenback. The US dollar index plunged to its lowest in 30 months on Wednesday to 91.10 level and added pressure on the USD/CAD pair. Meanwhile, Pfizer and BioNtech received approval from the UK Administration on Wednesday and became the first to use their vaccine widely. This optimistic report added strength to the risk sentiment and weighed on the US dollar that dragged the currency pair USD/CAD on the two-year lower level.

Meanwhile, the WTI Crude oil prices raised on Wednesday to near $46 per barrel amid declining crude oil stockpiles from the US on the day and added strength in the commodity-linked currency Loonie ultimately added in the losses of USD/CAD pair.

Furthermore, on the data front, at 18:30 GMT, the Labor Productivity for the quarter from Canada came in as -10.3% against the forecasted -6.9% and supported the Canadian Dollar and added losses in USD/CAD pair. From the US front, at 18:15 GMT, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change for November declined to 307K against the expected 433K and weighed on the US dollar and added losses in the USD/CAD pair.


Daily Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1.2902 1.2984
1.2873 1.3037
1.2820 1.3066
Pivot point: 1.2955

On the technical side, the commodity currency pair USD/CAD is trading with a selling bias at the 1.2939 level, having crossed below the 1.2939 support level, which is now anticipated to work as a resistance. On the 4 hour timeframe, the USD/CAD has produced a downward channel, which supports the selling bias in the Loonie. Closing of candles below the 1.2945 level may assist us catch a quick selling trade. Good luck!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 03 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Services PMI under Spotlight! 

The focus will remain on the range of services PMI numbers from the Eurozone and U.K. on the data front. Most of the data is anticipated to be neutral; nevertheless, the U.S. Unemployment Claims and ISM Services PMI will be the main highlight of the day.

The focus will remain on the range of services PMI numbers from the Eurozone and U.K. on the data front. Most of the data is anticipated to be neutral; nevertheless, the U.S. Unemployment Claims and ISM Services PMI will be the main highlight of the day.

The focus will remain on the range of services PMI numbers from the Eurozone and U.K. on the data front. Most of the data is anticipated to be neutral; nevertheless, the U.S. Unemployment Claims and ISM Services PMI will be the main highlight of the day.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD closed at 1.21150 after placing a high of 1.21182 and a low of 1.20398. The EUR/USD pair rose to its highest since April 2018 on Wednesday amid rising optimism from the vaccine front and the fiscal stimulus hopes.

On Wednesday, the U.K. regulator approved Pfizer and BioNtech’s vaccine for emergency use to fight against the coronavirus. This news added further support to the already improved risk sentiment in the market and helped the EUR/USD pair to rise as it is a riskier asset.

On the data front, at 12:00 GMT, the German Retail Sales for October raised to 2.6% against the projected 1.3% and supported Euro that added further gains in EUR/USD pair. At 13:00 GMT, the Spanish Unemployment Change dropped to 25.3K against the estimated 54.5K and supported Euro and added further gains in EUR/USD pair. At 14:00 GMT, Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate for October declined to 9.8% against the forecasted 9.9% and supported Euro and helped EUR/USD rise. At 15:00 GMT, the PPI for October raised to0.4% against the forecasted 0.2% and kept the single currency Euro and gave additional support to EUR/USD pair. The Unemployment Rate in Eurozone remained flat at 8.4%.

At 18:15 GMT, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change for November fell to 307K against the anticipated 433K and weighed on the U.S. dollar and added further in EUR/USD pair. After the release of macroeconomic data on Wednesday, the currency pair EUR/USD raised sharply and surpassed the 1.2100 level as all the data was in favor of it. Meanwhile, the lawmakers in Washington continued their negotiations related to a fiscal stimulus deal to support the U.S. economy. The negotiations weighed on local currency and made the U.S. dollar weak across the board. Furthermore, the optimism about a $908 billion package also boosted the market’s risk sentiment and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added additional gains in EUR/USD pair.

The U.S. dollar was also weak because of the rising number of coronavirus cases in the U.S. On Wednesday, the total number of deaths from coronavirus set a new record in a single day, and hospitalizations also reached an all-time high. On Wednesday, about 100,200 patients of coronavirus were hospitalized in the U.S. The U.S. Dollar Index on Wednesday slumped to its lowest level in more than 30 months at 91.10 and supported the upward momentum of the EUR/USD pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.1971       1.2122

1.1873       1.2175

1.1819       1.2273

Pivot point: 1.2024

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The bullish bias of the EUR/USD continues to dominate the market as the pair surged further higher until the 1.2117 level. On the higher side, the EUR/USD may find an immediate resistance at 1.2150 and 1.2196 level. Simultaneously, the closing of candles below the 1.2153 level can send the EUR/USD pair further lower until 1.2080. On the 4 hour timeframe, the EUR/USD has formed an upward channel, which is suggesting odds of further buying trend in the pair. The MACD is forming histograms above 0, suggesting odds of an upward trend in the market. Let’s consider the buying trend until the 1.2200 level today. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD closed at 1.33651 after placing a high of 1.34410 and a low of 1.32875. The British Pound erased gains and slipped to a 3-week lowest level on Wednesday after the E.U.’s chief Brexit negotiator said that progress in talks had stalled and cooled the expectations that a deal was near.

Michel Barnier said that a deal was not guaranteed and signaled that differences over key issues, including access to the U.K. fishing waters and level playing field rules, were still there. A day before this news, reports suggested that post-Brexit trade talks had reached the so-called tunnel. Tunnel refers to a situation where both parties don’t leave until a consensus is reached.

Ahead of the update, there were signs the ongoing impasse was starting to frighten some members, who have called on the E.U. to start preparation for a no-deal scenario. There likely could be another twist to come in Brexit talks in the days ahead with the U.K.’s proposal for a new finance bill. This bill undermines some parts of the original Brexit Withdrawal agreement, and it could dent the little progress in negotiations seen so far.

Whereas, Barnier said that if the U.K. government moved ahead next week with draft clauses in the Finance Bill that were inconsistent with the Withdrawal Agreement, then the talks will come under crisis.

All these negative reports depressed Brexit’s expectations and started to weigh on British Pound that added losses in GBP/USD pair. The time for an end of Brexit transition period on December 31 has come near, and if a deal has not been reached by then, U.K. will have to follow WTO rules and regulations while trading with the E.U.

Meanwhile, on the data front, at 05:01 GMT, the BRC Shop Price Index for the year dropped to -1.8% against the forecasted -1.3% and weighed on British Pound and added pressure on GBP/USD pair. On the U.S. front, at 18:15 GMT, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change for November dropped to 307K against the anticipated 433K and weighed on the U.S. dollar, and capped further losses in the GBP/USD pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3340       1.3468

1.3263       1.3519

1.3212       1.3595

Pivot point: 1.3391

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading sideways in between a fresh trading range of 1.3305 – 1.3445. Breakout of this range can lead the Cable price towards the 1.3517 level. The volatility seems low ahead of the Christmas holidays. However, the European session can trigger a buying trend until the 1.3515 level, while support continues to stay at the 1.3305 level. A bearish breakout of the 1.3305 level can trigger selling until the 1.3212 level. The MACD and RSI are suggesting a bullish bias in the market. Let’s consider taking buying trades over 1.3305 and 1.3447 level today.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 104.410 after placing a high of 104.749 and a low of 104.223. The USD/JPY pair raised for the third consecutive day on Wednesday amid the market’s optimism. However, most of USD/JPY’s daily gains were lost during the late trading session as U.S. stimulus raised.

The risk sentiment in the market was improved after the successful vaccine development from famous drug companies. Pfizer and BioNtech even received approval from the U.K. administration for emergency use authorization of their vaccine on Wednesday. Pfizer & BioNtech became the first in the world to get approval for the widespread use of their vaccine. It means that their vaccine can now be used to prevent the coronavirus officially, and it raised the risk sentiment in the market that ultimately added weight on the Japanese Yen due to its safe-haven nature; thus, it supported the upward momentum of the USD/JPY pair.

The Monetary Base for the year dropped to 16.5% against the forecasted 17.2%. At 09:59 GMT, Consumer Confidence raised to 33.7 against the anticipated 33.0 and supported the Japanese Yen that capped additional gains in the USD/JPY pair on Wednesday. At 18:15 GMT, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change for November fell to 307K against the estimated 433K and weighed on the U.S. dollar that limited the gains of the USD/JPY pair on Wednesday.

The prospects of a U.S. coronavirus relief package weighed on the greenback and forced the currency pair USD/JPY to lose most of its daily gains. As the $1.4trillion spending bill’s support increased, the top U.S. economic officials on Tuesday advised Congress to present more assistance for small businesses to survive during the pandemic.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker said on Wednesday that due to the increased spread of the coronavirus and delayed fiscal help along with the permanent job loss of some workers, the U.S. economic growth has been moderate.

Harker also forecasted moderate growth for the rest of this year and the first quarter of 2021. He also predicted that the economy would stay below pre-pandemic levels. Harker also said that if the vaccine is widely available by next spring and summer, then the growth will pick up in the second half of the next year. Harker added that more financial support was needed to get the economy to that point and to support low-income households.

Harker also said that the Central Bank’s emergency lending programs should be extended beyond next year as they are set to expire on December 31. Harker’s comments came in after Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin asked the Fed to return the unused funds. All these comments added pressure on the U.S. dollar as the continuous demand for a second stimulus bill weighed on local currency.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

104.13       104.54

103.95       104.77

103.72       104.95

Pivot point: 104.36

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading with a sideways trading range of 104.600 – 104.200, holding below an immediate resistance level of 104.600. On the lower side, the safe-haven currency pair may find support at the 103.719 level. The pair seems to disrupt the resistance level of 104.600, and if this happens, the USD/JPY may soar until the next resistance area of 105.030 level. The MACD and RSI support the buying trend, but we should only take buying positions over the 104.600 level today. Good luck!

Categories
Forex Signals

EUR/USD Fibonacci Retracement in Play – Signal Seems to Reverse! 

The EUR/USD surged dramatically on the back of risk-on sentiment amid positive reports over the COVID19 vaccine, which dragged the pair higher above the 1.2074 level. On the higher side, the violation of the 1.2010 resistance level is now working as a support, and it can lead the pair further higher until 1..2160. The bullish bias remains dominant today, especially over the 1.2015 level. However, the EUR/USD pair has recently formed a tweezers top pattern around 1.2076, suggesting the bearish retracement’s odds. In this case, the EUR/USD can also drop until the support level of 1.2017 that marks 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Let’s keep an eye on the 1.2060 support level today. 

The EUR/USD surged dramatically on the back of risk-on sentiment amid positive reports over the COVID19 vaccine, which dragged the pair higher above the 1.2074 level. On the higher side, the violation of the 1.2010 resistance level is now working as a support, and it can lead the pair further higher until 1..2160. The bullish bias remains dominant today, especially over the 1.2015 level. However, the EUR/USD pair has recently formed a tweezers top pattern around 1.2076, suggesting the bearish retracement’s odds. In this case, the EUR/USD can also drop until the support level of 1.2017 that marks 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Let’s keep an eye on the 1.2060 support level today. 

The EUR/USD surged dramatically on the back of risk-on sentiment amid positive reports over the COVID19 vaccine, which dragged the pair higher above the 1.2074 level. On the higher side, the violation of the 1.2010 resistance level is now working as a support, and it can lead the pair further higher until 1..2160. The bullish bias remains dominant today, especially over the 1.2015 level. However, the EUR/USD pair has recently formed a tweezers top pattern around 1.2076, suggesting the bearish retracement’s odds. In this case, the EUR/USD can also drop until the support level of 1.2017 that marks 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Let’s keep an eye on the 1.2060 support level today. 


Entry Price – Sell 1.20589

Stop Loss – 1.20989

Take Profit – 1.20189

Risk to Reward – 1:1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

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Categories
Forex Signals

AUD/USD Supported By Upward Channel – Brace for a Buy Trade! 

The AUD/USD closed at 0.73723 after placing a high of 0.73731 and a low of 0.73393. The increasing risk sentiment in the market due to vaccine hopes they raised the risk-sensitive Aussie in the market and supported the AUD/USD pair’s upward momentum. Another factor involved in the rising AUD/USD prices on Tuesday as the US dollar’s weakness.

The AUD/USD closed at 0.73723 after placing a high of 0.73731 and a low of 0.73393. The increasing risk sentiment in the market due to vaccine hopes they raised the risk-sensitive Aussie in the market and supported the AUD/USD pair’s upward momentum. Another factor involved in the rising AUD/USD prices on Tuesday as the US dollar’s weakness.

The AUD/USD closed at 0.73723 after placing a high of 0.73731 and a low of 0.73393. The increasing risk sentiment in the market due to vaccine hopes they raised the risk-sensitive Aussie in the market and supported the AUD/USD pair’s upward momentum. Another factor involved in the rising AUD/USD prices on Tuesday as the US dollar’s weakness.

The US dollar lost its traction in the market after the hopes for further stimulus from Congress were raised, and the macroeconomic data also came in against the local currency. The losses in the US dollar could also be attributed to the rising number of coronavirus cases in the USA.

On Tuesday, the US health officials said that Americans would hopefully receive the vaccine shots against the coronavirus starting from mid-December after the emergency authorization use of Pfizer’s vaccine will be approved by the US FDA. This positive news supported the risk sentiment, raised the risk-sensitive Aussie on board, and supported the AUD/USD pair’s upward momentum.

Another reason behind the bullish movement of the AUD/USD pair on Tuesday was the increasing hopes of the US stimulus bill after the testimony of Jerome Powell and Steven Mnuchin. The Fed chair Jerome Powell said that the rising number of coronavirus cases and deaths because of the pandemic had destroyed the US economy’s outlook. The outgoing US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin also urged the lawmakers to release the second round of US stimulus package as the economy has been hit hard because of the pandemic due to increased restrictive measures in many states of America.

On the data front, at 02:30 GMT, the AIG Manufacturing Index came in November as 52.1 against the previous 56.3. At 05:30 GMT, the Building Permits from Australia raised in October to 3.8% against the forecasted -3.0% and supported the Australian dollar that added gains in AUD/USD pair. The Current Account Balance from Australia for October also raised to 10.0B from the forecasted 7.2B and supported Aussie that added further gains in AUD/USD pair. At 10:30 GMT, the Commodity Prices for the year from Australia were reported as 2.2%.

From the US front, at 20:00 GMT, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for November fell to 5.75 against the projected 5.9 and weighed on the US dollar and supported the upward momentum of the AUD/USD pair. For October, the Construction Spending rose to 1.3% against the estimated 0.8% and supported the US dollar. The ISM Manufacturing Prices for November surged to 65.4 against the forecasted 65.0 and supported the US dollar. The Wards Total Vehicle Sales from the US declined to 15.6M against the estimated 16.1M and weighed on the US dollar that added further gains in AUD/USD pair.

Meanwhile, on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept its Cash Rates to their rock bottom level at 0.1% and said it would not further cut the rates. The Governor of RBA Philip Lowe said that the bank was doing its best to revive the nation from its current coronavirus induced recession. Lowe added that the economic recovery was underway, but its economic data was coming better than expected.

He also said that the recovery was still expected to be uneven and was dependent on significant policy support. RBA’s GDP forecast would grow by around 5% in 2021 and 4% in 2022. The positive comments from RBA and positive outlook for Australia added strength in local currency Aussie and supported the bullish momentum of the AUD/USD pair on Tuesday.


Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

0.7347 0.7382

0.73270.7395

0.7313 0.7416

Pivot point: 0.7361

The AUD/USD is trading sideways, holding between 0.7392 – 0.7342 levels, and closing of candles below 0.7392 level supports selling bias. While buying trend can be seen over 0.7345 level. On the 2 hour timeframe, the AUD/USD has formed an upward channel, which is likely to keep the pair supported. Let’s consider taking a buying trade over the 0.7340 level today. Good luck! 

 

Categories
Forex Signals

Who Are the Best Forex Trading Signal Providers?

The best signal providers are funds and companies that deal with trading exclusively. A team of traders that have proven results over many years is the best one you can find. Now, this is the short, general answer, if you are looking for something that suits your taste, then you might need some pointers and […]

The best signal providers are funds and companies that deal with trading exclusively. A team of traders that have proven results over many years is the best one you can find. Now, this is the short, general answer, if you are looking for something that suits your taste, then you might need some pointers and […]

The best signal providers are funds and companies that deal with trading exclusively. A team of traders that have proven results over many years is the best one you can find. Now, this is the short, general answer, if you are looking for something that suits your taste, then you might need some pointers and more research. To find a good signal provider is hard since you have to find valid data providers that are reliable, not just legit.

The internet is full of noise, false and marketing plagued information that does not match your core interest. The best out of those you find may not the best in the world in terms of gains, but they will be the best for you. Put some effort to find reliable signals and the search might be worth it. However, be sure the performance of a signal provider will not be the same this year as the previous, as it is commonly said, past data does not guarantee future results. We will present how to find a reliable signal provider using some general pointers. 

Before you move on with your decision to trust your money with some other trader, AI, or strategy, consider the costs. Not the unforeseen costs that may come out of a bad decision, but how much you are ready to risk for the service. Signals providers like to create packaged service options, with increasing cost and benefits structure. Sometimes this is based on the deposit amount where the more money you put in the bigger amount of signals or the larger payout percentage you get. Automated solutions behind the signal provider mostly have this offer structure.

Now, you might be a trader that wants to have some additional benefits to an already good trading result. Diversifying to AI and human-generated signals seems like a good idea. Some signals providers require at least a $1000 monthly deposit without a trial, while others require a $20 subscription type per month. Know that if you can afford a deposit type subscription it does not mean they have a better performance over the cheaper monthly subscription. Unconfirmed results and, what’s more, results you personally cannot achieve on a demo account are not worth the deposit, while the $20 might not be risky as much. 

When you try to surf the web for the best signal provider, you will stumble upon many „top-rated“provider rankings. These portals are rarely independent, you will see a lot of these marketing portals that favorite their biggest sponsors first. Or they may even be owned by one of the bigger businesses. You will need more reliable data based on which you can at least get a better picture of who is the best signal provider for you. One forum that might help you on this search is Forex Peace Army, not only for signal providers but for brokerages as well. Here you will find somewhat real reviews and ratings created by actual users. However, stay cautious and take what you read with a grain of salt.

Honest services exist, but your chances of getting one are not that high. Pay attention to signal providers that are only relying on Instagram, WhatsApp, or Telegram. There is a good chance a signal provider is not legit if it does not have any other social media included for their voices. Some lonely trader with a good system may have tried this way, however, there is a good reason why scammers do not like to associate with other main social media accounts. They can only have lots of benefits from networking and opening up to a wider audience right? Well, scammers do not go this way because it is much easier to crack their schemes. They will be in the spotlight after a few users express their distrust, so a fresh start with a new identity is needed. With Telegram and the above-mentioned platforms, it is easy to stay incognito for a while. On Twitter or YouTube, this is much harder to do. 

Pay attention if the signal providers are young people. Young spells inexperienced most of the time, just an observation that does increase your chances of choosing a good signal provider. Youngsters need the experience to get to the top of the forex trading and only then they have a badge to sell your signals. There is a considerable time measured in years to get some trading skill and even then you need a consistent sample that also requires some time. Automated trading solutions are mostly backed up by young coders, however, a good strategy needs an experienced developer to be effective. 

Also notable are the flashy images of wealth and style scammer groups post on their channels. Flashy pictures that should inspire what you will become if you follow the signals are just a good sign you might be dealing with an unreliable signal provider. To the somewhat intelligent people, this will not work. However, they are no after for the intelligent, no need to say more.

You will need to find some proof the signal provider is good aside from the reviews and ratings. Past results add to the reliability but are not decisive. Of course, unethical providers will not share their results even though this is the first thing logically to look at. Interestingly, many providers found on the web will not even bother with their results. They will also try to share something completely faked. 

Even though the signal provider website looks very well made, with 24h support and all, you might be actually looking at unethical business. Do not fall for pretty pictures, some incredible gains numbers, testimonials, and the rest of the marketing for the unaware. 

Websites that are legit and have been founded by experienced people from the corporate world – sounds good, right? Wrong, most of the corporate experience does not mean they are good traders or signal providers. This group went out of business and has now founded the forex signals site as a try to use their backgrounds. If their backgrounds look impressive to you just understand they know how to extract money out of your pocket more than out from forex. The website may have very techy or nerdy wording to present smarts turned to success even though it is common terms in trading. 

If you get a chance to stumble on a signal provider that is willingly sharing their results, ask three questions: What is your net gains for some month or a year, and what is your previous month/year net gain? If the net gain is some ridiculous but attainable 4 digit number, and it repeats, then you can safely assume it is a scam. Then ask was this result on forex only. As you may know, some assets move much more than currencies so their pip movement does not mean more monetary gain. It is easy to attain 3000 pips per month on an index. 

When we said that even with the legit results presented you cannot be sure it is because you may be looking at one account or signals generated from many failed ones. This one just performed the best out of a hundred, for example. It does not mean the signal performance is going to be like this in the future. 

If you ever go into this, you may try legit proprietary firms that also accept traders to qualify for their funding. These companies also share signals from their experts once you subscribe. Normally you can find a cheap trial and a complete list of past trades before the real full-price subscription. We also advise demoing the signals for two months before you are ready to put in the money, the money you are ready to lose completely.

Categories
Forex Market Analysis Forex Technical Analysis

NZDJPY Fills the Gap Unfilled Since May 2019

The NZDJPY advanced 5.70% in November, consolidating the price in the extreme bullish sentiment zone. Likewise, as illustrated in the following daily chart, during December’s kickoff trading, the cross reached the yearly high of 73.831, filling the gap that opened on May 06th, 2019.

The NZDJPY advanced 5.70% in November, consolidating the price in the extreme bullish sentiment zone. Likewise, as illustrated in the following daily chart, during December’s kickoff trading, the cross reached the yearly high of 73.831, filling the gap that opened on May 06th, 2019.

The NZDJPY advanced 5.70% in November, consolidating the price in the extreme bullish sentiment zone. Likewise, as illustrated in the following daily chart, during December’s kickoff trading, the cross reached the yearly high of 73.831, filling the gap that opened on May 06th, 2019.

Technical Overview

The previous chart also exposes the cross advancing in a mid-term uptrend drawn in blue, which remains active since last March 18th, when the price found support at 59.490. Likewise, we distinguish an accelerated short-term bullish trend plotted in green, which began in early November. 

The 2.774 reading observed in the EMA(60) to Close Index leads us to suspect that the impulsive bull market developed in the NZDJPY cross seems to be in an exhaustion stage. Therefore, the cross is likely to develop a reversal movement in the following trading sessions.  

Nevertheless, before taking a position on the bearish side, the price action must confirm the reversal movement. 

Technical Outlook

The following 12-hour chart presents the mid-term Elliott Wave view or the NZDJPY cross. The drawings reveal the cross advancing in an incomplete fifth wave of Minuette degree, labeled in blue that belongs to the fifth wave of Minute degree, in black.

NZDJPY’s price movements reveal an impulsive five-wave sequence of Minute degree identified in black, which began last March 18th, when the cross found fresh sellers after the massive sell-off developed in the global stock market. 

Likewise, once the extended third wave (in black) ended, the cross developed a sideways movement as a flat pattern, which found fresh buyers at 68.633. In this context, considering the Elliott Wave theory and that wave ((iii)) was the extended wave, the next impulsive wave ((v)) (in black) can’t be extended and should look similar to wave ((i)), also in black. 

On the other hand, watching the fifth wave’s internal structure (in black), the wave (ii) (in blue) looks like a complex correction, and the third wave is the extended movement. In this context, the current wave (v) (in blue), which is still in development, shouldn’t be an extended rally.

Consequently, the cross could complete its fifth wave of Minute degree in the area defined by the psychological levels between 74.00 and 75.00. Finally, until the cross shows evidence of a reversal, such as a bearish engulfing candle, we should consider the cross’ trend as bullish.

Categories
Forex Signals

USD/CAD Breaking Below Intraday Support – Quick Sell Trade!

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.29331 after placing a high of 1.30087 and a low of 1.29277. The USD/CAD pair fell on Tuesday despite the declining WTI crude oil prices due to weak US dollar demand on the day.

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.29331 after placing a high of 1.30087 and a low of 1.29277. The USD/CAD pair fell on Tuesday despite the declining WTI crude oil prices due to weak US dollar demand on the day.

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.29331 after placing a high of 1.30087 and a low of 1.29277. The USD/CAD pair fell on Tuesday despite the declining WTI crude oil prices due to weak US dollar demand on the day.
The USD/CAD pair dropped on the day as the US dollar was weak across the board after the release of US macroeconomic figures and also because of the rising hopes for the US stimulus package after the testimony of Jerome Powell and Steven Mnuchin.

On the data front, at 18:30 GMT, the Canadian Gross Domestic Product in October declined to 0.8% against the expected 0.9% and weighed on the Canadian dollar but failed to cap losses in the USD/CAD pair as the focus of investors was more towards the weakness of US dollar on the day. At 19:30 GMT, the Manufacturing PMI from Canada for November came in line with the forecasts of 55.8.

Whereas, on the US dollar front, at 20:00 GMT, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for November declined to 5.75 against the anticipated 5.9 and weighed on the US dollar and added further losses in the USD/CAD pair. For October, the Construction Spending rose to 1.3% from the projected 0.8% and supported the US dollar. The ISM Manufacturing Prices for November also raised to 65.4 against the anticipated 65.0 and supported the US dollar. The Wards Total Vehicle Sales from the US declined to 15.6M against the forecasted 16.1M and weighed on the US dollar that added further pressure on the USD/CAD pair on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the hopes for further stimulus aid in the US from Congress started to rise as Jerome Powell called the outlook for the United States economy extraordinarily uncertain due to increased coronavirus cases and deaths. The US health officials have said that vaccinating Americans will hopefully be started by mid-December as the death rates have risen to an alarming level. All these things included US stimulus hopes, a rising number of coronavirus cases, and the weak macroeconomic data added heavy pressure on the US dollar that dragged the USD/CAD pair lower despite the declining crude oil prices on Tuesday.

The WTI Crude Oil prices also declined on Tuesday after the OPEC+ meeting was reportedly delayed until Thursday to allow for more negotiations. It came in as UAE signaled that it would not support the three months extension of current output cuts by OPEC+. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia also said that it was considering stepping down from the co-chair of the OPEC+ JMMC as the country was unhappy with the things going on recently.

The declining crude oil prices due to the delayed OPEC+ meeting also weighed on commodity lined Loonie, but it failed to reverse the USD/CAD pair’s direction as the focus of the market was solely on the US dollar’s weakness on Tuesday.


Daily Technical levels
Support Resistance
1.2902 1.2984
1.2873 1.3037
1.2820 1.3066
Pivot point: 1.2955

On the technical front, the USD/CAD pair is trading with a bearish bias at the 1.2939 level, having crossed below the 1.2939 support level, which is now likely to work as a resistance. On the 4 hour timeframe, the USD/CAD has formed a downward channel, which supports the selling bias in the Loonie. Closing of candles below the 1.2945 level may help us capture a quick selling trade. Check out a trading plan…

Entry Price – Sell 1.29237
Stop Loss – 1.29637
Take Profit – 1.28837
Risk to Reward – 1:1
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40
Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.
iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368
Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 02 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Advance NFP in Focus!

On Wednesday, the eyes will remain on the Fed Chair Powell Testifies, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate from the Eurozone. A primary focus will remain on the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change as this will help investors determine the odds of actual NFP data, which is due on Friday.

On Wednesday, the eyes will remain on the Fed Chair Powell Testifies, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate from the Eurozone. A primary focus will remain on the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change as this will help investors determine the odds of actual NFP data, which is due on Friday.

On Wednesday, the eyes will remain on the Fed Chair Powell Testifies, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate from the Eurozone. A primary focus will remain on the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change as this will help investors determine the odds of actual NFP data, which is due on Friday.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD closed at 1.20715 after placing a high of 1.20764 and a low of 1.19243. The EUR/USD surged above 1.2000 level and reached 1.20764 level, the highest level since May 2018 amid the optimism surrounding the coronavirus vaccine and broad-based U.S. dollar weakness.

Many factors were involved in the breakout of the EUR/USD pair on Tuesday above the 1.2000 level, including the latest optimism because of vaccine hopes, monetary stimulus from both sides, and the political certainty for a change. 

Pfizer and BioNtech were the first to report a high efficacy of 95% in a phase-3 coronavirus immunization trial on November 09. After that, many drug companies, including Moderna, AstraZeneca, Novavax, and Oxford University, also followed them. Pfizer and Moderna have already applied for emergency use authorization from the US FDA, and soon after getting the approval, these vaccines will be available for usage. Even Pfizer has sent its first mass shipment of vaccine to Chicago on Monday. All this vaccine optimism pushed the safe-haven U.S. dollar down and raised the risk sentiment in the market that supported the upward momentum of the EUR/USD pair on Tuesday.

On the stimulus front, the European Central Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve were set to expand their bond-buying schemes. Since the pandemic has started, the stimulus aid from ECB has supported the Eurozone’s economy by allowing governments to spend more. In the United States, the Federal Reserve’s dollar printing triggered a broad risk-on mood that also helped the riskier assets like EUR/USD pair to rise. 

On the Political certainty front, the U.S. elections have declared a final winner- Joe Biden. While outgoing President Donald Trump has been continuously crying foul, his attempts to overturn the elections failed, and investors continued to price the Joe Biden victory and selling the U.S. dollar. Moreover, the nomination of Janet Yellen as Treasury Secretary was also reassuring.

On the E.U. front, the political development in the upcoming Brexit deal has entered a tunnel as an intense final round of talks is in progress, and the results of talks are yet to be declared. All these factors combined and supported the EUR/USD pair’s upward momentum on Tuesday.

On the data front, at 13:15 GMT, the Spanish manufacturing PMI for November declined to 49.8 against the forecasted 50.8 and weighed on Euro. At 13:45 GMT, the Italian Manufacturing PMI also dropped to 51.5 against the projected 52.0 and weighed on the single currency. At 13:50 GMT, the French Final Manufacturing PMI raised to 49.6 from the expected 49.1 and supported Euro. AT 13:55 GMT, the German Final Manufacturing PMI stayed the same at 57.8. The German Unemployment Change came in as -39K against the expected 9K and supported the single currency. At 14:00 GMT, the Final Manufacturing PMI from the Eurozone remained flat with the expected 53.8. At 15:00 GMT, the CPI Flash Estimate for the year dropped to -0.3% against the estimated -0.2% and weighed n Euro. The Core CPI Flash Estimate for the year came in line as expected 0.2%. 

On the U.S. front, at 20:00 GMT, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for November fell to 5.75 against the forecasted 5.9 and weighed on the U.S. dollar and supported the upward momentum of the EUR/USD pair. The Construction Spending for October surged to 1.3% against the estimated 0.8% and supported the U.S. dollar. The ISM Manufacturing Prices for November also surged to 65.4 against the forecasted 65.0 and helped the U.S. dollar. The Wards Total Vehicle Sales from the U.S. declined to 15.6M against the estimated 16.1M and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added further gains in EUR/USD pair.

Given the above manufacturing data, the Eurozone economy’s outlook looks somewhat better than the United States outlook that added extra pressure on the U.S. dollar and helped the EUR/USD pair to place highs above the 1.200 level on Tuesday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.1971       1.2122

1.1873       1.2175

1.1819       1.12273

Pivot point: 1.2024

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD surged dramatically on the back of risk-on sentiment amid positive reports over the COVID19 vaccine, which dragged the pair higher above the 1.2074 level. On the higher side, the violation of the 1.2010 resistance level is now working as a support, and it can lead the pair further higher until 1..2160. The bullish bias remains dominant today, especially over the 1.2015 level. However, the EUR/USD pair has recently formed a tweezers top pattern around 1.2076, suggesting the odds of bearish retracement. In this case, the EUR/USD can also drop until the support level of 1.2017 that marks 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Let’s keep an eye on the 1.2060 support level today. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD closed at 1.34224 after placing a high of 1.34424 and a low of 1.33149. After placing losses for three consecutive days, the GBP/USD pair rose on Tuesday and recorded gains on the back of broad-based U.S. dollar weakness and increased Brexit hopes. The GBP/USD pair hit the highs at 1.3400 level on Tuesday over the positive Brexit news after the Times Radio’s Chief Political Commentator Tom Newton Dunn tweeted the U.K. and E.U. trade deal talks have entered a mythical tunnel. Though either side formally confirmed or rejected the “tunnel” status of negotiations after his tweet. 

The tunnel refers to a state of intense negotiation that essentially ends up having some agreement between both parties, and before that, neither side leaves. Though it does not guarantee a deal will be made, it shows a strong willingness/commitment from both sides to work as hard as possible to get a compromise. After this tweet by Dunn, the GBP/USD pair started to gain traction and rise in the financial market due to increased demand for British Pound. 

On the other hand, the GBP/USD pair’s gains could also be attributed to the U.S. dollar’s weakness. The greenback was weak across the board after the release of poor macroeconomic data and the rising number of coronavirus cases in the U.S.

The top U.S. health officials announced plans on Tuesday to begin vaccinating Americans against the coronavirus as early as mid-December amid the increasing death from coronavirus. The nationwide deaths hit the highest number for a single day in six months in the U.S. and raised economic recovery fears that led to the U.S. dollar’s weakness and improved GBP/USD pair.

On the data front, at 20:00 GMT, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for November declined to 5.75 against the estimated 5.9 and weighed on the U.S. dollar and supported the bullish momentum of the GBP/USD pair. For October, the Construction Spending rose to 1.3% against the projected 0.8% and helped the U.S. dollar. The ISM Manufacturing Prices for November also raised to 65.4 against the estimated 65.0 and supported the U.S. dollar. The Wards Total Vehicle Sales from the U.S. fell to 15.6M against the anticipated 16.1M and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added further gains in GBP/USD pair.

On Britain front, at 12:00 GMT, the Nationwide HPI for November raised to 0.9% against the forecasted 0.2% and supported the British Pound that added further gains in GBP/USD pair on Tuesday. At 14:30 GMT, the Final Manufacturing PMI also raised to 55.6 against the expected 55.2 and supported the British Pound that added further gains in GBP/USD pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3316       1.3342

1.3301       1.3353

1.3290       1.3368

Pivot point: 1.3327

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading sideways, having violated the narrow trading range of 1.3397 – 1.3304. The market is expected to display choppy sessions with a new limited range of 1.3397 to 1.3452 level. The violation of a triple top resistance level of 1.3397 level is now working as a support, and it may trigger a bounce off in the Cable until 1.3452 and 1.3512 level. Let’s keep an eye on the 1.3397 level to stay bullish above this level today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 104.305 after placing a high of 104.576 and a low of 104.180. The USD/JPY pair stayed on a bullish track on Tuesday despite the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness due to increased risk flow in the market. The stock markets have been buoyed by the news that the first coronavirus vaccine could be administered by the end of the year. Despite the acceleration of the pandemic in the U.S. and many other parts of the world, the riskier assets gained on the back of improved risk sentiment due to vaccine hopes. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) that measures the U.S. dollar value against the six currencies basket fell to 92 levels on Tuesday.

The pair rose above 104.5 level on Tuesday amid the broad-based risk sentiment in the market over the optimism surrounding the vaccine hopes. However, the gains in USD.JPY pair started to fade away in the late trading session after the US ISM Manufacturing PMI release for November. In November, the declining manufacturing activity was the proof of halted manufacturing activity due to the rising number of restrictive measures in many states of America due to escalated second wave of coronavirus.

At 04:30 GMT, the Unemployment Rate from Japan for October remained flat with the expectations of 3.1%. At 04:50 GMT, the Capital Spending for the quarter from Japan came in as -10.6% against the expected -12.0% and supported the Japanese Yen that limited the USD/JPY pair’s gains. AT 05:30 GMT, the Final Manufacturing PMI from Japan also raised to 49.0 against the expected 48.3 and supported the Japanese Yen that capped further gains in the USD/JPY pair.

On the U.S. dollar front, at 20:00 GMT, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for November fell to 5.75 against the projected 5.9 and weighed on the U.S. dollar that capped further gains in the USD/JPY pair. For October, the Construction Spending surged to 1.3% against the estimated 0.8% and supported the U.S. dollar and added gains in the USD/JPY pair. The ISM Manufacturing Prices for November also rose to 65.4 against the expected 65.0 and helped the U.S. dollar that added additional gains in the USD/JPY pair. The Wards Total Vehicle Sales from the U.S. dropped to 15.6M against the expected 16.1M and weighed on the U.S. dollar that capped further gains in the USD/JPY pair.

Meanwhile, the U.S. death rate because of the COVID-19 virus has also increased to an alarming level as it posted the highest number for a single day in six months. The Top U.S. health official announced plans on Tuesday to begin vaccinating Americans against the coronavirus as early as mid-December. This statement also raised the risk sentiment and added weight on the Japanese Yen that supported the USD/JPY pair’s upward momentum on Tuesday.

Furthermore, On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that the United States economy’s outlook was extraordinarily uncertain due to increased numbers of coronavirus cases that have affected the U.S. economy hardly. 

In his testimony to the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs, Powell said that the increasing number of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. and abroad were concerning. He said that until the people were confident about re-engaging the economic activities confidently, full economic recovery was impossible. At the same time, Powell was upbeat over the recent optimistic news on vaccine development worldwide.

Meanwhile, several programs set by the Federal Reserve in March are near to end of the year. In response to this, Powell stated that these programs would help unlock almost $2 trillion funding. After this report, the USD/JPY pair started losing its early daily gains as the greenback became weak across the board due to rising hopes for stimulus measure.

Furthermore, On Tuesday, the outgoing Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin also testified before the Senate and urged lawmakers to pass a second stimulus bill quickly. This also added in the U.S. dollar weakness and capped further gains in the USD/JPY pair on Tuesday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

104.03       104.16

103.97       104.23

103.91       104.29

Pivot point: 104.10

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading with a sideways trading range of 104.600 – 104.200, holding below an immediate resistance level of 104.600. On the lower side, the safe-haven currency pair may find support at the 103.719 level. The pair seems to disrupt the resistance level of 104.600, and if this happens, the USD/JPY may soar until the next resistance area of 105.030 level. The MACD and RSI support the buying trend, but we should only take buying positions over the 104.600 level today. Good luck!

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave Forex Market Analysis

EURJPY Advances Toward Key Supply Zone

In our latest EURJPY analysis, we commented on its advance in an incomplete corrective structure identified as a triangle pattern, which remains in development since mid-2014.

In our latest EURJPY analysis, we commented on its advance in an incomplete corrective structure identified as a triangle pattern, which remains in development since mid-2014.

In our latest EURJPY analysis, we commented on its advance in an incomplete corrective structure identified as a triangle pattern, which remains in development since mid-2014.

Technical Overview

Also, we saw that the mid-term trend looks like an incomplete corrective structure, which seems to advance in a wave B of Minor degree, labeled in green. Moreover, the structure observed previously unveiled the progress in an incomplete wave ((b)), identified in black, which should develop a bounce toward the supply zone between 125.285 and 126.123.

The price action is currently seen advancing in its wave (c) of Minuette degree, labeled in blue, which has now reached the supply zone between 125.285 and 126.123 forecasted in our previous analysis.

On the other hand, the current wave (c), in blue, that remains in development could extend its gains toward the psychological barrier of 126, where the cross could start to decline to the wave ((c)), in black. This bearish sequence, possibly developed with five internal segments, should complete the wave B of Minor degree, in green.

Short- term Technical Outlook

The EURJPY in its 2-hour chart reveals the internal structure created by the wave (c), in blue, which shows the intraday ascending channel plotted in green. The price action that has surpassed the ascending channel’s upper line suggests the rise of the third wave of Subminuette degree labeled in green that is in progress.

In this context, according to the Elliott Wave theory, once the EURJPY completes the advance of the third wave, in green, the cross should experience a limited decline corresponding to the fourth wave in green. This drop could reach the demand zone between 124.931 and 125.128, where the price could find fresh buyers expecting the price to head toward new highs.

The fifth wave’s potential target zone, in green, is located between 125.939 and 126.497. In this area, the cross could complete the wave ((b)) of Minute degree in black. 

Finally, the invalidation level of this intraday bullish scenario is found at 124.566, which corresponds to the top of the first wave of Minute degree.

Categories
Forex Signals

What are the Best Forex Trading Robots?

Forex robots or Expert Advisors (EAs) for MT4 appear to be a dream come true for many people, as we can see from various chatrooms and comment sections. Automated trading has emerged as a perfect solution for anyone who finds manual trading to be too hard or resents the process of learning about the Forex […]

Forex robots or Expert Advisors (EAs) for MT4 appear to be a dream come true for many people, as we can see from various chatrooms and comment sections. Automated trading has emerged as a perfect solution for anyone who finds manual trading to be too hard or resents the process of learning about the Forex […]

Forex robots or Expert Advisors (EAs) for MT4 appear to be a dream come true for many people, as we can see from various chatrooms and comment sections. Automated trading has emerged as a perfect solution for anyone who finds manual trading to be too hard or resents the process of learning about the Forex market. Forex enthusiasts seem to love trading robots because they can work 24/7, they are unaffected by emotions, and they are available on the MetaTrader platforming many shapes and prices. The number of forex trading robots seems to be doubling each day, forex is more and more driven by automated solutions and increasingly intelligent AI.

If you just care about the gains and rate robots based on their net gain performance during a month or a year, you could be shocked that the best performing robot suddenly lost a big part of your account one day. Consequently, this leads us to how do we interpret the specs and presented the performance of an automated solution. MetaTrader 4 and 5 platforms have a testing module that could give us some clue if the robot is functioning well on a specific asset, time, or market conditions. The industry and the demand grew so much you now have so many websites selling EAs and investment companies that take deposits for their AI to trade with. Not to mention scalping strategies are mostly automated since they can execute much faster than a human would. The guide of how to find the best robot is likely to be obsolete in one year given the pace EAs are produced. What’s more, the robot could simply stop being “the best” once the market conditions change. So we are going to give you a few evergreen universal pointers for your quest.  

The internet is full of marketing bloated false websites that attach to anything popular. Automated trading is very popular, everybody would like to earn money without knowledge about trading and almost no effort. When it seems too good to be true, it probably is. Now you have really to dig the internet search results to find something about robots without a bias of sponsorships, industry pitching, and overblown robot performance (fake). When you look at the top-ranking lists you will not find the same robots, and even top-ranked robots will not be the best according to reviews sites. Then it gets even fuzzier when you want to find a specific robot type. There are a few starting web portals you may look at first to have an overview of the EA market. 

First, go to Forex Peace Army and read some reviews. The reviews on this site are not made by sponsors, but by real users, most of the time. You will also see some red flags and warning about a particular robot seller, scams also if you want to see how people got scammed, it is educational. Focus on robots with a good number of reviews, having a 5-star rating does have any weight if it is based on 2 reviews. When you read the reviews, try to figure out if they have enough useful information about the product. Something like “great robot!” does not mean a lot to anyone. Check the FPA forum if something grabbed your attention on the internet. For example, Forex Fury is a very praised robot by rank websites, but it is not as great according to users. Of course, robot users are not always good representatives of its quality, so take everything they say with a healthy dose of suspicion. 

Explore how the robot selling portal looks like, who is the author, what is the strategy behind. Check for any flashy content, extremely good performance charts, percentages, and ambiguous claims or explanations about the robot. Any of the mentioned is a bad sign, especially when no trial is offered. Interestingly, demos are not commonly offered. You will notice when the portal is just full of pitching lines, it is wise to stay clear of those. 

Before all, understand where the robot is applicable, its settings, how to set up, and if all this is in line with your lifestyle. It is not comfortable to fund a robot that is overtrading or has a Stop Loss level too far. Most of the time robots will require a sustainable connection with the market 24/7 so you will need a VPS service. Assess how all the costs combine to your preference and how much can it hopefully earn to make everything worthwhile. Some robots are based on subscriptions or work only in very calm market conditions when you are unavailable to put it to run. Therefore, you need to do a lot of o research about a robot of preference, including the performance elements. 

Gains are not important, it is how they are achieved. If you see the robot is allowing for too big of an account drawdown (%) at any given moment, know its risk profile is not optimal. Some robots are just made for high-risk gains and are not meant to be used all the time since they will fail at one moment and bust the account. Robots with risky strategies are sometimes used with small deposits but on multiple leveraged accounts, one that endures a month might have enough gains to cover all the costs. People who want steady income will search for other strategies designed no to risk too much, single-digit gains per month without overtrading, martingale, and cost averaging when things go sour. Such robots/strategies are developed by experienced traders, able to be manually exercised with the right tools. 

If you use the MetaTrader platform, then you probably know about the EA market. Here you can find so many robots, some of them are free. The best trading robot can be free and still make your profits. Some of the very promising robots are not even listed on any website except on the MQL market. Robot authors usually describe the robot strategy and performance charts to the best ability, yet some free robots do not serve really to provide good results and may just be demo versions of the paid variants. When you read the technical specifics presented, know they are not accurate. The high winning rate of some robots could reveal the strategy is based on many short trades with high-risk tolerance hence the winning rate is high. Lossing trades are typically extreme with these, even one is enough to leave you empty-handed. 

Consider robots that are constantly updated. It is hard to devise a strategy adaptive to market conditions. Robots are rigid, simply there are not enough code statements to cope with the ever-surprising forex market. Because of this authors need to update their robots meaning you will inevitably see losses once the conditions are not “right” for your robot. Adaptive strategies are not that uncommon, the market conditions could be recognized by some tools for volatility, such as $EVZ, ATR, Choppiness Index, and similar. Also by comparing past data with the specific events that could drive the market bullish or bearish, for example. Automating strategies is very hard work and requires a lot of testing. The price for complex adaptive strategies robots is high, mostly over $1000, still, it is a small price to pay for something that generates consistent profits. 

Finding the best robot requires a lot of work and luck. The search part is already time-consuming and unfortunately, the time invested in the research might not bear fruits. The promising robot might perform well and then simply stop. There is a lot of factors that could turn the odds quickly the robot just can’t compensate for. The answer to this bread question is unsatisfying – the best robot is the one who gives you at least some profit.

Categories
Forex Signals

AUD/USD Violates Upward Channel – An Update on Signal! 

The AUD/USD pair was closed at 0.73435 after placing a high of 0.74070 and a low of 0.73388. The currency pair AUD/USD raised to its highest in 4 months on Monday in an early trading session due to improved risk sentiment failed to remain there for longer and reversed its direction as the US dollar Index raised.

The AUD/USD pair was closed at 0.73435 after placing a high of 0.74070 and a low of 0.73388. The currency pair AUD/USD raised to its highest in 4 months on Monday in an early trading session due to improved risk sentiment failed to remain there for longer and reversed its direction as the US dollar Index raised.

The AUD/USD pair was closed at 0.73435 after placing a high of 0.74070 and a low of 0.73388. The currency pair AUD/USD raised to its highest in 4 months on Monday in an early trading session due to improved risk sentiment failed to remain there for longer and reversed its direction as the US dollar Index raised.

The risk sentiment in the market was supported by multiple factors, including the vaccine optimism and the resumed talks in Congress for issuance of a second stimulus package. Pfizer sent its first mass shipment of coronavirus vaccine to Chicago on Monday and added in the market’s risk sentiment. Moderna also applied on Monday for emergency use authorization of its vaccine to curb the coronavirus pandemic’s effect.

These factors raised the demand for risk-sensitive Aussie and supported the upward momentum of AUD.USD pair in early trading hours of the day. However, the gains were lost during the late trading session as the US Dollar Index rebounded. The US Dollar Index (DXY) bounced back on Monday from its lower 91.8 level amid the decline in US Wall Street’s main indexes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 indexes fell on Monday and added strength to the US dollar.

Meanwhile, on the data front, at 05:00 GMT, the MI Inflation Gauge for November came in as 0.3% in comparison to -0.1%. At 05:30 GMT, the Company’s Operating Profits for the quarter decreased to 3.2% against the forecasted 4.0% and weighed on the Australian dollar and added further in the losses of AUD/USD pair. The Private Sector Credit for November also declined to 0.0% against the estimated 0.1% and weighed on the Australian dollar and added further losses in AUD/USD pair.

On the US dollar front, at 19:45 GMT, the Chicago PMI for November dropped to 58.2 against the expected 59.4 and weighed on the US dollar that capped further losses in AUD/USD pair. At 20:00 GMT, the Pending Home Sales for October also dropped to -1.1% against the estimated 1.1% and weighed on the US dollar. However, the AUD/USD pair’s losses were limited by the release of positive macroeconomic data from China. China’s economic activity in the manufacturing and services sector was improved during November and helped China-proxy Australian dollar to gather strength against its counterpart US dollar and capped further losses in the AUD/USD pair on Monday.


Daily Technical Levels
Support Resistance
0.7389 0.7410
0.7377 0.7417
0.7369 0.7430
Pivot point: 0.7397

Entry Price – Sell 0.73437

Stop Loss – 0.73837

Take Profit – 0.73037

wisk to Reward – 1:1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.

iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368

Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave Forex Market Analysis

Is AUDUSD Turning Bearish?

In our previous technical analysis of the AUDUSD pair, we mentioned the potential corrective formation that was developing. In particular, we warned about the progress of an incomplete fourth wave of Minute degree identified in black, in which the pair was advancing on the wave (b) of Minutette degree in blue.

In our previous technical analysis of the AUDUSD pair, we mentioned the potential corrective formation that was developing. In particular, we warned about the progress of an incomplete fourth wave of Minute degree identified in black, in which the pair was advancing on the wave (b) of Minutette degree in blue.

In our previous technical analysis of the AUDUSD pair, we mentioned the potential corrective formation that was developing. In particular, we warned about the progress of an incomplete fourth wave of Minute degree identified in black, in which the pair was advancing on the wave (b) of Minutette degree in blue.

Technical Overview

As the previous chart shows, the price action seems moving in a mid-term sideways channel. This formation has been evolving since early September, when the price topped at 0.74134. In terms of the Elliott Wave theory, the figure shows the progression of a likely incomplete flat pattern (3-3-5).

In this context, the bearish rejection below September’s high of 0.74134 should confirm the end of wave (b), in blue, and the beginning of wave (c). Also, according to Elliott’s textbook, the coming wave (c) should follow an internal sequence subdivided into five waves.

The big picture of the AUDUSD pair currently reveals the gray box’s rejection suggested in our previous analysis. From here, the Aussie could start to decline in a five-wave sequence corresponding to the already mentioned wave (c) of Minuette degree, labeled in blue. 

Moreover, after wave (c) completes, the Australian currency should also end its wave ((iv)) of Minute degree in black and giving way to a new impulsive wave corresponding to the fifth wave of the same degree.

Short-term Technical Outlook

The AUDUSD price exposed in the next 2-hour chart reveals the completion of wave c of Subminuette degree identified in green, which topped at 0.74076 on November 30th, as the price action developed an ending diagonal pattern.

Once the price touched the psychological barrier of 0.74, the price began to decline, developing a breakdown below the baseline of the ending diagonal pattern, piercing the demand zone between 0.73492 and 1.73571, where the Aussie started a consolidation in the current trading session.

Considering that the pair started to consolidate, we expect an intraday sideways formation, likely a flag pattern. In this context, if the price breaks and closes below the baseline of this flag pattern, the AUDUSD could confirm the bearish continuation, which could make it drop to the next demand zone between 0.72654 and 0.72801.

Likewise, the price could extend its declines toward the next demand zone between 0.71449 and 0.71651. The movement, developed into a five-wave sequence, should complete the wave (c) of Minuette degree identified in blue, which, at the same time, could confirm the end of wave ((iv)) of Minute degree labeled in black, as we said earlier.

The invalidation level corresponding to this downward scenario is placed at the high of wave c, in green,  0.74076.

Categories
Forex Signals

EUR/JPY Bullish Engulfing Signals Further Buying – Quick Signal Update!

During Tuesday’s early European trading session, the EUR/JPY currency pair managed to extend its overnight bullish streak and drew some further bids around closer to the 125.00 level mainly due to the market risk-on mood, which tends to undermine the safe-haven Japanese yen and contributes to the currency pair gains. Hence, the market trading sentiment was being supported by the prospects of a COVID-19 vaccine.

During Tuesday’s early European trading session, the EUR/JPY currency pair managed to extend its overnight bullish streak and drew some further bids around closer to the 125.00 level mainly due to the market risk-on mood, which tends to undermine the safe-haven Japanese yen and contributes to the currency pair gains. Hence, the market trading sentiment was being supported by the prospects of a COVID-19 vaccine.

During Tuesday’s early European trading session, the EUR/JPY currency pair managed to extend its overnight bullish streak and drew some further bids around closer to the 125.00 level mainly due to the market risk-on mood, which tends to undermine the safe-haven Japanese yen and contributes to the currency pair gains. Hence, the market trading sentiment was being supported by the prospects of a COVID-19 vaccine.

Across the pond, the shared currency upticks also played a significant role in underpinning the currency pair. On the contrary, the long-lasting coronavirus woes in the U.S. and Europe keep challenging the upbeat market sentiment, which becomes the key factor that kept the lid on any additional gains in the currency pair.

On the contrary, the intensifying coronavirus woes across the globe and intensifying lockdowns restrictions in Europe and the U.S. keep challenging the upbeat market performance and become the key factor that kept the lid on any additional gains in the currency pair.

In the absence of the key data/events on the day, the market traders will keep their eyes on US ISM Manufacturing PMI for November and original comments from the Fed Chair’s Testimony for fresh impetus. In addition to this, the updates about the U.S. stimulus package will also be key to watch. In the meantime, the risk catalyst like geopolitics and the virus woes, not to forget the Brexit, will not lose their importance.


Daily Support and Resistance
S1 122.99
S2 123.8
S3 124.11
Pivot Point 124.62
R1 124.93
R2 125.44
R3 126.25

The EUR/JPY has violated the resistance level of 124.780, and above this, the pair has the potential to go after the 125.530 level. However, if the EUR/JPY pair fails to stay over 124.750 support, the odds of bearish reversal will also remain solid. The leading indicator, such as MACD is supporting the buying trend. Checkout a trade setup below.

Entry Price – Buy 124.898

Stop Loss – 124.498

Take Profit – 125.298

Risk to Reward – 1:1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.

iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368

Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

Categories
Forex Signals

Gold Violates Ascending Triangle Pattern – Signal Update

The yellow metal prices succeeded in stopping its previous 3-day losing streak and recovered from monthly lows of $1,764.73 to $1,764.73 level mainly due to the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, triggered by hopes of more monetary easing measures from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Moreover, the concerns over the economic recovery amid intensifying coronavirus cases also exerted downside pressure on the U.S. dollar, which eventually lend support to the yellow-metal prices as the weaker USD tends to make it cheaper holders of other currencies to purchase the yellow-metal. Across the pond, the mixed market trading sentiment, driven by the negative comments of Fed Chair Jerome Powell and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, lend some additional support to the safe-haven metal. In the meantime, the worsening coronavirus (COVID-19) conditions in the U.S. and Europe also keeps the gold prices bullish.

The yellow metal prices succeeded in stopping its previous 3-day losing streak and recovered from monthly lows of $1,764.73 to $1,764.73 level mainly due to the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, triggered by hopes of more monetary easing measures from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Moreover, the concerns over the economic recovery amid intensifying coronavirus cases also exerted downside pressure on the U.S. dollar, which eventually lend support to the yellow-metal prices as the weaker USD tends to make it cheaper holders of other currencies to purchase the yellow-metal. Across the pond, the mixed market trading sentiment, driven by the negative comments of Fed Chair Jerome Powell and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, lend some additional support to the safe-haven metal. In the meantime, the worsening coronavirus (COVID-19) conditions in the U.S. and Europe also keeps the gold prices bullish.

The yellow metal prices succeeded in stopping its previous 3-day losing streak and recovered from monthly lows of $1,764.73 to $1,764.73 level mainly due to the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, triggered by hopes of more monetary easing measures from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Moreover, the concerns over the economic recovery amid intensifying coronavirus cases also exerted downside pressure on the U.S. dollar, which eventually lend support to the yellow-metal prices as the weaker USD tends to make it cheaper holders of other currencies to purchase the yellow-metal. Across the pond, the mixed market trading sentiment, driven by the negative comments of Fed Chair Jerome Powell and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, lend some additional support to the safe-haven metal. In the meantime, the worsening coronavirus (COVID-19) conditions in the U.S. and Europe also keeps the gold prices bullish.

Apart from this, the western tussle with China and uncertainty over the Brexit trade deal also probed the market’s positive performance and contributed to its gains. On the contrary, the optimism over a possible vaccine and treatment for the highly infectious coronavirus keeps challenging the market’s bears, which was seen as one of the key factors that kept the lid on any additional gains in the yellow metal prices. The yellow metal prices are currently trading at 1,786.03 and consolidating in the range between 1,775.87 – 1,788.37.

However, the sentiment around the global markets remains mixed amid stimulus concerns and growing coronavirus fears, as well as the negative comments of the Fed Chair Jerome Powell and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin also kept the market trading sentiment cautious. It should be noted that the Fed’s Powell and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin both said during Monday’s testimony in front of the Senate Banking Committee that the economy is on the way to recovery but needs additional help to stay on track. In the meantime, Mnuchin urged Congress to use $455 billion from the CARES Act to present the much-needed stimulus to the world’s biggest economy.

Daily Support and Resistance
S1 1735.75
S2 1755.61
S3 1766.35
Pivot Point 1775.48
R1 1786.22
R2 1795.34
R3 1815.21


The precious metal gold is violating the ascending triangle pattern on the four hourly timeframes, extending resistance at the 1,792 level. Over this level, the gold price may head further higher until the 1,818 level; therefore, we have entered the buying trade in gold. Check out the trade plan below.

Entry Price – Buy 1792.46

Stop Loss – 1786.46

Take Profit – 1799.96

Risk to Reward – 1:1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.

iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368

Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 01 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Manufacturing PMI Figures in Highlights!

Eyes will remain on the series of Manufacturing PMI figures from the Eurozone, UK, Canada, and the U.S. Although it is a low impact event, it may help determine the market sentiment today. The U.S. Fed Chair Powell will be in highlight as he is due to testify on the CARES Act before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, in Washington DC. Lastly, the ECB President Lagarde is also due to speak at an online event hosted by the Atlantic Council; however, it is now expected to significantly influence the Euro.

Eyes will remain on the series of Manufacturing PMI figures from the Eurozone, UK, Canada, and the U.S. Although it is a low impact event, it may help determine the market sentiment today. The U.S. Fed Chair Powell will be in highlight as he is due to testify on the CARES Act before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, in Washington DC. Lastly, the ECB President Lagarde is also due to speak at an online event hosted by the Atlantic Council; however, it is now expected to significantly influence the Euro.

Eyes will remain on the series of Manufacturing PMI figures from the Eurozone, UK, Canada, and the U.S. Although it is a low impact event, it may help determine the market sentiment today. The U.S. Fed Chair Powell will be in highlight as he is due to testify on the CARES Act before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, in Washington DC. Lastly, the ECB President Lagarde is also due to speak at an online event hosted by the Atlantic Council; however, it is now expected to significantly influence the Euro.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD closed at 1.19547 after placing a high of 1.20030 and a low of 1.19235. The currency pair EUR/USD surpassed the 1.20000 level on Monday amid the rising risk sentiment in the market and decreasing U.S. dollar; however, the pair started to lose its gains and ended up posting losses for the day.

The EUR/USD pair continued its bullish movement in the early trading session on Monday as the risk sentiment improved with more positive news from the coronavirus vaccine side. Pfizer has sent the first mass shipment of its vaccine to Chicago on Monday. Whereas, Moderna has applied for emergency use authorization of its vaccine from the US FDA on Monday. Both these latest reports from the vaccine side added further strength in the risk sentiment as it showed progress in steps that would eventually lead to global economic recovery.
The improved risk sentiment because of optimism regarding vaccine and economic recovery gave strength to riskier assets like EUR/USD pair on Monday.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar’s weakness also played an essential role in raising the currency pair EUR/USD above the 1.2000 level. The U.S. dollar was weak across the board due to the latest announcement that Congress has started its brief session to pass the next stimulus package for coronavirus.

Furthermore, both sides’ macroeconomic data were also in favor of pushing the currency pair EUR/USD near its mid-August high level on Monday. From the European Union side, The German Prelim CPI for November came in as -0.8% against the forecasted -0.7% and weighed on the single currency Euro. At 13:00 GMT, Spanish Flash CPI for the year came in as -0.8% against the forecasted -0.9% and supported Euro. At 15:00 GMT, the Italian Prelim CPI for November came in as -0.1%against the forecasted -0.2% and supported the single currency Euro.

On the U.S. dollar front, At 19:45 GMT, the Chicago PMI for November dropped to 58.2 against the anticipated 59.4 and weighed on the U.S. dollar. At 20:00 GMT, the Pending Home Sales for October fell to -1.1% against the estimated 1.1% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. However, the gains in the EUR/USD pair failed to remain till the end of the trading day and started to reverse in late trading hours amid the concerns of coronavirus pandemic in Europe. The outlook for the largest economy in the Eurozone, Germany, became increasingly uncertain due to the rising number of coronavirus cases surpassed above 1 Million.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.1962       1.1976
1.1954       1.1982
1.1948       1.1991
Pivot point: 1.1968

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The market’s technical side remains mostly unchanged on the back of a limited number of economic events on the calendar. The EUR/USD pair is trading with a bullish bias at the 1.1955 area, facing immediate resistance at the 1.2000 area. Closing of candles above the 1.1915 support level suggests odds of bullish bias in the EUR/USD as this level is extended by an ascending triangle breakout pattern. On the lower side, the EUR/USD may find support at the 1.1912 and the 1.1865 areas; however, bullish bias remains stable over the 1.1912 level.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD closed at 1.33229 after placing a high of 1.33856 and a low of 1.32911. The GBP/USD pair tried to rise and post gains for Monday but failed to do so and continued its bearish streak for the third consecutive day. The rise in GBP/USD pair in the earlier trading session on Monday was due to the hopes that there was little progress in Brexit talks between U.K. and E.U. to settle disputes on several issues, including the fishing quotas.

The rise in British Pound was due to the latest comments from French European Affairs Minister Clement Beaune. On Monday, he said that he hoped to see an agreement in the next few days and called on negotiators to leap required. He acknowledged that two sticking issues, U.K. fishing waters and the so-called level-playing field for business, are still unresolved.

As both sides have already warned each other that the time was running out, a French presidency official said on Monday that Britain should clarify its positions and consult to find a Brexit deal on its association with the European Union. He added that the E.U. also has the interest to fight for, to give fair competition for its businesses and fishermen. He said that the Union has made a clear and balanced offer for a future partnership with Britain and that the E.U. will not accept a substandard deal that would not respect the E.U.’s interests.

On the other hand, Boris Johnson’s officials believed that the Brexit trade deal could be reached within days if both sides continue working in good faith to resolve fishing rights’ big obstacle. The U.K.’s Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab called on the E.U. to recognize that regaining control over British waters was the question of sovereignty for Britain. He said that talks were going good and he believed a deal on fish might be achievable during the final week of talks.

These optimistic and hopeful comments from both sides added strength to the GBP/USD pair on Monday during the early trading session. Still, the currency pair failed to maintain its gains and started to decline and post losses for the day despite the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness due to insufficient macroeconomic data on the day.

On the U.S. dollar front, at 19:45 GMT, the Chicago PMI for November fell to 58.2 against the estimated 59.4 and weighed on the U.S. dollar. At 20:00 GMT, the Pending Home Sales for October also declined to -1.1% against the projected 1.1% and weighed on the U.S. dollar that capped further losses in GBP/USD pair.

From the Britain side, at 14:30 GMT, the M4 Money Supply for October from Britain was dropped to 0.6% against the forecasted 1.0% and weighed on British Pound and added further losses in GBP/USD pair. The Net Lending to Individuals for October also declined to 3.7B against the expected 4.7B and weighed on British Pound and supported the bearish momentum in GBP/USD pair. At 14:32 GMT, Mortgage Approvals for October raised to 98K against the anticipated 85K and supported British Pound and capped further losses in the currency pair.

Meanwhile, the GBP/USD pair’s bearish trend was continued for the third consecutive day because of the rising fears that the U.K. and E.U. will end up having no-deal at the end of the transition period that is due on December 31. Only a month has left behind to resolve both parties’ issues, and none of them has shown any lenience. If both sides failed to reach a deal by the end of the deadline, then the U.K. will be forced to trade with the E.U. under the World Trade Organization terms that will not be good for both sides.


Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3316       1.3342
1.3301       1.3353
1.3290       1.3368
Pivot point: 1.3327

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading sideways, within a narrow trading range of 1.3397 – 1.3304. The market is likely to exhibit choppy sessions until this narrow trading range gets violated. On the higher side, the GBP/USD is facing a triple top level at the 1.3397 level; however, the bullish breakout of the 1.3397 level can trigger a buying trend until the 1.3454 level. On the lower side, the Cable is supported over 1.3350 level, supported by an upward channel on the four hourly charts. The MACD suggests a buying trend, and we should look for a buy trade over the 1.3325 level or 1.3400 level today.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 104.289 after placing a high of 104.384 and a low of 103.830. After placing losses for two consecutive days, the USD/JPY pair rose on Monday as the U.S. dollar rebounds.

The broad-based U.S. dollar weakness in the early trading session pushed the USD/JPY pair lower after the hopes for the U.S. stimulus measure raised. However, Wall Street’s main indexes’ poor performance allowed the U.S. dollar to remain firm against its peers. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 indexes lost about 1.2% and 0.78% respectively on Monday, which added strength to the U.S. dollar and pushed the USD/JPY pair higher.

Meanwhile, on Monday, US Health Secretary Alex Azar said that Americans could get their first shot of coronavirus vaccine before Christmas if all thing went well. These comments from Azar added further strength in risk-sentiment and weighed on the safe metal Japanese Yen that added gains in USD/JPY pair. Furthermore, on Monday, Moderna applied for emergency authorization with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to start using its vaccine to reduce the effect of coronavirus. Pfizer and BioNtech, which has already filed for similar FDA approval earlier this month, sent the first mass shipment of its COVID-19 vaccine to Chicago through United Airlines on Friday. This positive news from the drug companies added optimism in the market and weighed on the safe-haven Japanese Yen that added further gains in the USD/JPY pair.

On the data front, at 04:50 GMT, the Prelim Industrial Production for October from Japan raised to 3.8% against the forecasted 2.3% and supported the Japanese Yen that capped further gains in the USD/JPY pair. The Retail Sales for the year from Japan stayed the same as expected by 6.4%. At 10:00 GMT, the Housing Starts for the year came from Japan came in as -8.3% against the forecasted -9.0% and supported the Japanese Yen.

On the U.S. dollar front, at 19:45 GMT, the Chicago PMI for November declined to 58.2 against the expected 59.4 and weighed on the U.S. dollar that capped further gains in the USD/JPY pair. At 20:00 GMT, the Pending Home Sales for October fell to -1.1% against the estimated 1.1% and weighed on the U.S. dollar that capped further gains in the USD/JPY pair.
Another factor involved in the risk sentiment that supported the upward momentum of the USD/JPY pair on Monday was the start of a brief session of Congress over the issue of a second stimulus bill for the coronavirus pandemic. The Democrats and Republicans were under dispute over the size of the stimulus package, and now that the Presidency has shifted from Republicans to Democrats after the victory of Joe Biden, it could be expected that a massive stimulus is on its way that would curb the effects of COVID-19 and support the risk sentiment of the market. The improved risk demand added pressure on the safe-haven Japanese yen and supported the USD/JPY pair on Monday. Another factor involved in the gains of the US/JPY pair was Pfizer’s vaccine’s shipment to Chicago on Monday, along with the latest application by Moderna to FDA for emergency use authorization of its vaccine.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

104.03       104.16
103.97       104.23
103.91      104.29
Pivot point: 104.10

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading with a sideways trading range of 104.475, holding below an immediate resistance level of 104.478. On the lower side, the safe-haven currency pair may find support at the 103.719 level. The pair seems to disrupt the resistance level of 104.478, and if this happens, the USD/JPY may soar until the next resistance area of 105.030 level. The MACD and RSI support the buying trend, but we should only take buying positions over the 104.500 level today. Good luck!

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave Forex Market Analysis Forex Signals

Is EURNZD Developing a Terminal Formation?

The EURNZD cross presents a downward sequence in its 12-hour chart that began on August 20th when the price found fresh sellers at 1.82238. This sequence formed three internal segments and, recently, is likely forming a reversal movement in the following trading sessions.

Technical Overview

The previous chart illustrates the bearish primary trend identified with the descending trendline, drawn in blue. Moreover, the secondary trend, plotted in green, reveals an aggressive decline that is happening since October 20th when the cross found resistance at 1.80212. But we see all that the EURNZD price seems to have found support on November 23rd on 1.69472. Currently, the price action appears consolidating in a narrow range between 1.69622 and 1.70645.

In Elliott Wave theory terms, the cross is advancing in an incomplete downward corrective sequence of Minute degree identified in black, which currently is drawing its wave ((c)). Likewise, its internal structure suggests the progress in the fifth wave of Minuette degree labeled in blue.

The following 2-hour chart reveals the EURNZD cross is moving mostly sideways following a descending wedge breakout, or in terms of the Elliott Wave theory, an ending diagonal breakout. 

Nevertheless, the bullish reversal is still unconfirmed as long as the cross keeps moving below the level of 1.70486.

Short-term Technical Outlook

The EURNZD cross shown in its 2-hour chart below presents a sideways movement below the pivot level of 1.70486, which could correspond to the fifth wave of Minuette degree, labeled in blue. 

Considering that the cross remains in a consolidation structure, there are two potential scenarios:

  • The first scenario occurs if the price action breaks and closes above the 1.70486 pivot level. In this case, the EURNZD could develop an upward movement. According to the Dow Theory, the cross should make an upward motion to the area between 1.73016 and 1.76560. Likewise, the invalidation level for this reversal scenario is seen on 1.69472, which corresponds to the low made on November 24th.
  • The second scenario calls for the price to drop and close below the 1.69472 level. If that happens, the cross could continue its decline toward the lows zone made in January, near the 1.6650 level. The price could find support and complete the wave ((c)) of Minute degree labeled in black. In this scenario, the invalidation level would be located above the last relevant swing high of 1.70961.

However, let’s remember that as long as the price doesn’t confirm any breakout, bullish, or bearish, the bias should be kept neutral.

Categories
Forex Signals

EUR/AUD Violates Downward Trendline – Buy Signal Update!


Entry Price – Buy 1.6243

Stop Loss – 1.62496

Take Profit – 1.6283

Risk to Reward – 1:1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.

iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368

Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

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Forex Signals

EUR/JPY Triple Top Breakout – Brace for a Buy Trade

The EUR/JPY currency pair failed to stop its early-day losing streak and still flashing red around below 124.50 level mainly due to the intensifying coronavirus cases across Eurozone and lockdown restrictions in France and Germany, which keep fueling the worries over the Eurozone economic recovery and undermines the shared currency. These concerns got further lifted after the German Economic Minister Peter Altmaier said that COVID-19 infection numbers are still much too high in most regions, which adds further burden around the shared currency and contributes to the currency pair losses.

The EUR/JPY currency pair failed to stop its early-day losing streak and still flashing red around below 124.50 level mainly due to the intensifying coronavirus cases across Eurozone and lockdown restrictions in France and Germany, which keep fueling the worries over the Eurozone economic recovery and undermines the shared currency. These concerns got further lifted after the German Economic Minister Peter Altmaier said that COVID-19 infection numbers are still much too high in most regions, which adds further burden around the shared currency and contributes to the currency pair losses.

The EUR/JPY currency pair failed to stop its early-day losing streak and still flashing red around below 124.50 level mainly due to the intensifying coronavirus cases across Eurozone and lockdown restrictions in France and Germany, which keep fueling the worries over the Eurozone economic recovery and undermines the shared currency. These concerns got further lifted after the German Economic Minister Peter Altmaier said that COVID-19 infection numbers are still much too high in most regions, which adds further burden around the shared currency and contributes to the currency pair losses.

Across the pond, the prevalent optimism over a potential vaccine for the highly dangerous coronavirus infection urges investors to retreat from the safe-haven Japanese yen, which could be considered one of the key factors that help the currency pair to limit its deeper losses.

In the meantime, the Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said that the Japanese economy remains severe due to the COVID-19 virus, which added further burden around the Japanese yen and becomes the key factor that kept the lid on any additional losses in the currency pair. At this moment, the USD/CHF currency pair is currently trading at 0.9029 and consolidating in the range between 124.31 – 124.67

It is worth recalling that the prevalent optimism over a possible vaccine for the highly infectious coronavirus disease keeps boosting the market risk tone. However, the hopes of the vaccine were boosted after pharmaceutical regulators from the US, Europe, and the UK showed readiness for approving the leading vaccines that have shown almost 90% effective rates during the final rates, which in turn, boosted the hopes of the early arrival of the much-awaited cure to the pandemic. Thereby, the risk-on market mood tends to undermine the safe-haven Japanese yen, which becomes the key factor that lends some support to the currency pair to ease the intraday bearish pressure surrounding the EUR/PY currency pair.

On the other side, the rising coronavirus cases across Eurozone and back-to-back lockdown restrictions in Germany and Franc keep the shared currency under pressure. As per the latest report, German Economic Minister Peter Altmaier said that the COVID-19 infection numbers are still much too high in most regions, putting further pressure around the single currency and contributing to the currency pair declines.

On the contrary, the intensifying market worries regarding the continuous surge in new coronavirus cases in the US and Europe, which keep fueling the concerns over the global economic recovery through imposing new lockdown restrictions on economic and social activity, keep trying to probe the upbeat market performance. Apart from this, the long-lasting inability to pass the US fiscal package and the uncertainty over Brexit, and fears of a full-fledged trade/political war between the West and China also challenging the market risk-on mood, which might push the currency pair further down.

In the absence of significant data/events on the day, the market traders will keep their eyes on the US NFP data, which is due later this week. In addition to this, the updates about the US stimulus package will also be key to watch. In the meantime, the risk catalyst like geopolitics and the virus woes, not to forget the Brexit, will also be key to watch for a fresh direction.

Daily Support and Resistance

S1 122.99
S2 123.66
S3 124.09
Pivot Point 124.33
R1 124.76
R2 125
R3 125.66


The EURJPY has violated the triple top resistance level of 124.730 level and above this it has strong odds of soaring until 125.450. Thus, we have entered the buying trade to capture quick green pips in the market.

Entry Price – Buy 124.932

Stop Loss – 124.532

Take Profit – 125.332

Risk to Reward – 1:1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.

iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368

Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

Categories
Forex Signals

USD/CAD Breaks Below Support Level – Weaker Dollar In Play!

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.29907 after placing a high of 1.30247 and a low of 1.29719. The USD/CAD pair dropped on Friday after posting gains for two consecutive sessions amid the broad-based US dollar weakness.

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.29907 after placing a high of 1.30247 and a low of 1.29719. The USD/CAD pair dropped on Friday after posting gains for two consecutive sessions amid the broad-based US dollar weakness.

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.29907 after placing a high of 1.30247 and a low of 1.29719. The USD/CAD pair dropped on Friday after posting gains for two consecutive sessions amid the broad-based US dollar weakness.

On Thursday night, the US President Donald Trump said that he would be leaving the White House office as the Electoral Votes were in favor of Joe Biden. The smooth transition of power in the White House was not expected and weighed on the US dollar as Biden has promised to issue massive financial support for the pandemic-hit economy.

Biden has been fighting for a larger stimulus package from Congress since pre-elections, and now as he has won the US Presidency, he would likely deliver a larger fiscal aid to an economy that will add pressure on the US dollar and markets was weighing on the USD/CAD pair.
Another factor involved in the declining USD/CAD pair prices was the rising Crude oil prices. WTI crude oil prices reached the $45.65 level on Friday amid the rising optimism in the market. The risk sentiment improved after several pharmaceutical companies started reporting their vaccine’s efficacy in preventing the coronavirus.

Pfizer and BioNtech started the race to approve US FDA emergency authorization use of the vaccine, and Moderna and AstraZeneca followed them. The hopes that the global economy will soon be free from the pandemic and the social activities will resume to pre-pandemic level raised the bars for increased demand for energy sources. The hopes that energy demand will rise supported the crude oil prices that eventually added strength in the commodity-linked currency Loonie and added weight on USD/CAD pair on Friday.

There was no macroeconomic data to be released from both sides on Friday due to Thanksgiving Holiday, and the pair USD/CAD followed the US dollar’s movement ad Crude oil movement on Friday.


Daily Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1.2992 1.3028
1.2972 1.3044
1.2957 1.3064
Pivot point: 1.3008

Entry Price – Sell 1.29684

Stop Loss – 1.30084

Take Profit – 1.29284

Risk to Reward – 1:1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.

iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368

Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

Categories
Forex Signals

EUR/USD Breaking Above Resistance Level – Brace for a Buy Trade!

The risk perceived EUR/USD pair gained traction on Friday after the optimism surrounding the market related to the coronavirus vaccine increased. The hopes for a quick economic recovery also increased along with the vaccine progress and supported the market’s risk sentiment that lifted the global equity market.

The risk perceived EUR/USD pair gained traction on Friday after the optimism surrounding the market related to the coronavirus vaccine increased. The hopes for a quick economic recovery also increased along with the vaccine progress and supported the market’s risk sentiment that lifted the global equity market.

The risk perceived EUR/USD pair gained traction on Friday after the optimism surrounding the market related to the coronavirus vaccine increased. The hopes for a quick economic recovery also increased along with the vaccine progress and supported the market’s risk sentiment that lifted the global equity market.

The news regarding vaccines from several candidates and their efficacy rates raised hopes that the economy would come back to its pre-pandemic levels, and that weighed on the safe-haven greenback. The EUR/USD pair is trading with a bullish bias at the 1.1974 area, facing immediate resistance at the 1.1975 area.

Closing of candles below this level suggests chances of bearish correction as the pair has entered the overbought zone. However, the bullish breakout of the 1.1975 level can extend the buying trend until the next resistance level of the 1.2010 level. The bullish bias remains dominants today. Let us consider taking a selling trade below the 1.1979 level, and above this, the next target stays at 1.1997.


Support Resistance
1.1885 1.1942
1.1856 1.1970
1.1828 1.1999
Pivot point: 1.1913

Entry Price – Buy 0.9025

Stop Loss – 0.9065

Take Profit – 0.8985

Risk to Reward – 1:1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.

iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368

Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

Categories
Forex Signals

USD/CHF Bearish Bias Continues to Dominate – Sell Signal Update!

During Monday’s Asian trading hours, the USD/CHF currency pair failed to extend its last week winning streak and edged lower around the 0.9027 level. However, the bearish tone around the currency pair could be associated with the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, triggered by the possibilities of further monetary easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which weakens the U.S. dollar and contributes to the currency pair losses. Moreover, the optimism over a potential vaccine for the highly dangerous coronavirus infection urges investors to retreat from the safe-haven asset, which also kept the U.S. dollar on the defensive and push the currency pair down. In that way, the COVID-19 vaccine optimism also weighed on the safe-haven CHF and became the key factor that helps the currency pair to limit its deeper losses. On the contrary, the on-going uncertainty over Brexit trade talks and fears of a full-fledged trade/political war between the West and China keep probing the upbeat market performance, which might push the currency pair further down. Currently, the USD/CHF currency pair is currently trading at 0.9029 and consolidating in the range between 0.9026 – 0.9047.

During Monday’s Asian trading hours, the USD/CHF currency pair failed to extend its last week winning streak and edged lower around the 0.9027 level. However, the bearish tone around the currency pair could be associated with the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, triggered by the possibilities of further monetary easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which weakens the U.S. dollar and contributes to the currency pair losses. Moreover, the optimism over a potential vaccine for the highly dangerous coronavirus infection urges investors to retreat from the safe-haven asset, which also kept the U.S. dollar on the defensive and push the currency pair down. In that way, the COVID-19 vaccine optimism also weighed on the safe-haven CHF and became the key factor that helps the currency pair to limit its deeper losses. On the contrary, the on-going uncertainty over Brexit trade talks and fears of a full-fledged trade/political war between the West and China keep probing the upbeat market performance, which might push the currency pair further down. Currently, the USD/CHF currency pair is currently trading at 0.9029 and consolidating in the range between 0.9026 – 0.9047.

During Monday’s Asian trading hours, the USD/CHF currency pair failed to extend its last week winning streak and edged lower around the 0.9027 level. However, the bearish tone around the currency pair could be associated with the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, triggered by the possibilities of further monetary easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which weakens the U.S. dollar and contributes to the currency pair losses. Moreover, the optimism over a potential vaccine for the highly dangerous coronavirus infection urges investors to retreat from the safe-haven asset, which also kept the U.S. dollar on the defensive and push the currency pair down. In that way, the COVID-19 vaccine optimism also weighed on the safe-haven CHF and became the key factor that helps the currency pair to limit its deeper losses. On the contrary, the on-going uncertainty over Brexit trade talks and fears of a full-fledged trade/political war between the West and China keep probing the upbeat market performance, which might push the currency pair further down. Currently, the USD/CHF currency pair is currently trading at 0.9029 and consolidating in the range between 0.9026 – 0.9047.

The prevalent optimism over a possible vaccine for the highly infectious coronavirus disease keeps providing a boost to the market risk tone. However, the hopes of the vaccine were boosted after pharmaceutical regulators from the U.S., Europe, and the U.K. showed readiness for approving the leading vaccines that have shown almost 90% effective rates during the final rates, which in turn, boosted the hopes of the early arrival of the much-awaited cure to the pandemic. Thus, the risk-on market mood tends to undermine the safe-haven Swiss franc, which becomes the key factor that lends some support to the currency pair to ease the intraday bearish pressure surrounding the USD/CHF currency pair.


Daily Support and Resistance
S1 0.8969
S2 0.9012
S3 0.9029
Pivot Point 0.9056
R1 0.9072
R2 0.9099
R3 0.9143

The USD/CHF has violated the support level of 0.9036 level, and the closing of a candle below the 0.9036 level of 0.9036 can extend selling bias until the 0.8983 level. The MACD has crossed below 0 level suggesting odds of selling trend continuation. Thus, we have opened a sell trade; here is a trade plan below.

Entry Price – Buy 0.9025

Stop Loss – 0.9065

Take Profit – 0.8985

Risk to Reward – 1:1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.

iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368

Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

 

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave Forex Market Analysis Forex Price Action Forex Technical Analysis

Is EURGBP Ready for a Fresh Rally?

In our latest EURGBP technical analysis, we commented on the cross moving in an incomplete sideways corrective formation of Minor degree, identified in green. Its internal structure suggested the completion of a double-three pattern of Minute degree.

In our latest EURGBP technical analysis, we commented on the cross moving in an incomplete sideways corrective formation of Minor degree, identified in green. Its internal structure suggested the completion of a double-three pattern of Minute degree.

In our latest EURGBP technical analysis, we commented on the cross moving in an incomplete sideways corrective formation of Minor degree, identified in green. Its internal structure suggested the completion of a double-three pattern of Minute degree.

Also, we saw the pierce and bounce of the September 03rd low at 0.8658, when EURGBP dropped to 0.88610, found fresh buyers there, and created an intraday impulsive move identified as the first wave of Minute degree, labeled in black.

As the next 4-hour chart shows, once the EURGBP cross completed its first wave, in black that belongs to wave C, in green, it reacted mostly bearish, developing a correction, extending the move below our forecasted area, and testing the lows of the previous bullish impulsive move.

The breakout of the short-term descending trendline confirmed the end of wave ((ii)) of Minute degree and the beginning of the third wave of the same degree, which remains in progress.

Likewise, in the last chart, we distinguish the advance of the third wave of Minuette degree identified in blue in its internal structure.

Short-term Technical Outlook

The short-term Elliott Wave view of the EURGBP cross, unveiled in the below 4-hour chart, reveals the breakout of the descending trendline that follows the wave ((ii)) identified in black, which suggests the beginning of a new rally.

Once the price found fresh buyers at 0.88998, the cross began to advance mostly bullish in an impulsive sequence of Minuette degree, identified in blue, that remains in progress. This upward move corresponds to the internal structural series of wave ((iii)) of Minute degree that belongs to wave C of Minor degree, in green.

Furthermore, considering the reduced period it took for the first stage of wave (iii) to complete, It is plausible that the third wave in progress will be the extended wave, as the Elliott Wave theory states that only one extended wave would occur in an impulsive structure. 

In this context, the current upward move could advance to the next supply zone between 0.90446 until 0.90686. But, if the cross maintains its bullish momentum, it could strike the next potential target zone between 0.91260 and 0.91464.

Finally, the current bullish scenario’s invalidation level is 0.88610, which corresponds to the origin of the wave C in green.

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, November 30 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – ECB President Lagarde Speaks!

On the news front, the eye will remain on the ECB President Lagarde Speaks, OPEC Meetings, Chicago PMI, and Pending Home Sales m/m. The U.S. events are expected to perform badly, and the dollar index can bear a bearish hit.

On the news front, the eye will remain on the ECB President Lagarde Speaks, OPEC Meetings, Chicago PMI, and Pending Home Sales m/m. The U.S. events are expected to perform badly, and the dollar index can bear a bearish hit.

On the news front, the eye will remain on the ECB President Lagarde Speaks, OPEC Meetings, Chicago PMI, and Pending Home Sales m/m. The U.S. events are expected to perform badly, and the dollar index can bear a bearish hit.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.19637 after placing a high of 1.19637 and a low of 1.19060. EUR/USD pair raised near its highest level since August amid the increasing risk-on sentiment. Due to Thanksgiving celebrations, the EUR/USD pair continued to move higher in the upward direction in the absence of U.S. traders.

The risk perceived EUR/USD pair gained traction on Friday after the optimism surrounding the market related to the coronavirus vaccine increased. The hopes for a quick economic recovery also increased along with the vaccine progress and supported the market’s risk sentiment that lifted the global equity market on Friday.

The news regarding vaccines from several candidates and their efficacy rates raised hopes that the economy would come back to its pre-pandemic levels, and that weighed on the safe-haven greenback. The U.S. dollar was also weak across the board after the smooth transition of the White House. Joe Biden is set to take power on January 20, and he is expected to work on a second stimulus bill that would weigh on the U.S. dollar.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) that measures the U.S. dollar value against the six currencies basket was also under pressure and at a new monthly low level at 91.8 level on Friday. The U.S. dollar weakness combined with the vaccine optimism added strength in the EUR/USD pair and helped it reach near its highest since mid-August level.

Meanwhile, the single currency Euro was also strong on Friday after releasing strong macroeconomic data from the European Union. At 12:00 GMT, German Import Prices for October raised to 0.3% against the expected 0.1% and supported Euro. At 12:45 GMT, the French Consumer Spending for October also raised to 3.7% from the forecasted 3.6% and supported the single currency Euro. The French Prelim CPI for November surged to 0.2% against the forecasted 0.0% and supported Euro. The French Prelim GDP for the quarter also surged to 18.7% against the anticipated 18.2% and supported Euro. The Euro’s strength added further gains in the already rising EUR/USD pair and pushed it higher on board.
The rising risk sentiment in the market also supported the stock market worldwide as the outlook of the upcoming year 2021 was improved due to the successful development of the coronavirus vaccine.

Furthermore, the victory of Joe Biden in the U.S. Presidential elections also added positivity to the market mood because he has signaled a more promising approach toward international relations, unlike Trump. Due to his promise of keeping smooth trade relations with China and other countries, the favorable global trade conditions improved the global risk sentiment and supported the riskier assets like EUR/USD pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.1885      1.1934

1.1859      1.1957

1.1836      1.1983

Pivot point: 1.1908

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD pair is trading with a bullish bias at the 1.1974 area, facing immediate resistance at the 1.1975 area. Closing of candles below this level suggests chances of bearish correction as the pair has entered the overbought zone. However, the bullish breakout of the 1.1975 level can extend the buying trend until the next resistance level of the 1.2010 level. The bullish bias remains dominants today. Let us consider taking a selling trade below the 1.1979 level, and above this, the next target stays at 1.1997.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.33066 after placing a high of 1.33815 and a low of 1.32856. The GBP/USD pair continued its previous day’s bearish move and extended its losses on Friday amid the increased Brexit worries. Despite the positive risk environment in the market, the currency pair GBP/USD pair posted losses for the day on Friday as the deadline for the transition period was coming closer day by day, and a deal has still not been secured. With only 34 days left for the Brexit-transition period to end, the pressure on both sides, the E.U. and the U.K., has increased to reach a deal by Saturday to complete the required paper-work legislation process in time.

Chief EU negotiator Michel Barnier reached London for in-person talks after completing his quarantine, and this was the only positive news surrounding Brexit. UK PM Boris Johnson has said that the U.K. will prosper with or without a deal, and the likelihood of a deal is dependent on the E.U. There were still disagreements on Fisheries, governance, and level playing field that needed to sort out to reach a deal.

The rising uncertainty regarding Brexit has been weighing on the local currency British Pound. The E.U. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, along with the E.U. chief negotiator Barnier, said that they do not know if a deal was possible as the talks were in progress.

On Friday, Barnier told MEPs that he was prepared for a further four days of make-or-break Brexit negotiations, with growing skepticism among E.U. member states about the utility of further talks. Barnier has said that he would work through the weekend and then maybe one-or-two more days in the last-ditch attempt to bridge the large gaps between both sides and reach a deal.

E.U. sources have said that there was a growing feeling that the lack of progress and the need to prepare businesses for the consequences of a no-deal British departure from the E.U. made it unwise for talks to continue beyond then. These concerning statements from both sides have weighed on British Pound and added losses in GBP/USD pair.
Whereas, the U.K.’s foreign minister Dominic Raab said on Sunday that the next week would be very significant for Brexit, in reply to how near the deadline was in trade talks with the European Union. He said that this was a very significant week, the last real major week, subject to further postponement.

As the last 4-6 days for securing a Brexit deal have reached, the local currency pressure also increased and weighed on Sterling that ultimately weighed o GBP/USD pair ahead of any decision despite the improved risk sentiment in the market because of vaccines progress.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3319     1.3397
1.3281     1.3437
1.3241     1.3475
Pivot point: 1.3359

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD traded in line with our previous forecast to hit the support level of 1.333, which is extended by an upward channel. On the higher side, Cable may find resistance at 1.3400 level that’s extended by the double top pattern on the two-hour timeframe. Simultaneously, the bullish crossover of the 1.3400 level is likely to open additional room for buying until the 1.3446 level. On the 4 hour timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has formed a bullish channel that supports the pair at the 1.333 area, and violation of this level on the lower side can drive a sharp selling trend until the 1.3270 mark. The RSI and MACD are suggesting a selling trend in sterling. However, I will prefer to open a buying trade over the 1.3330 area and selling trade below the same level today.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 104.064 after placing a high of 104.279 and a low of 103.904. Despite the improved risk-on market sentiment, the USD/JPY pair dropped for the second consecutive session amid the U.S. dollar weakness. The U.S. dollar weakness was driven by the increased expectations of a large-scale stimulus from the new Biden administration to combat the coronavirus pandemic. Joe Biden has been fighting to provide massive stimulus support to the economy to fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. As he has won the U.S. Presidential elections and is now due to take power on January 20, the chances for a massive stimulus fiscal support to the economy has increased and weighed on the U.S. dollar.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) that tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies was down by 0.1% to a 3-months lower level at 91.8. The trade market volume was also limited, keeping the U.S. dollar under pressure due to Thanksgiving Holiday in the U.S. as many traders were enjoying a long weekend.

Meanwhile, the environment around U.S. politics also got better with President Trump’s latest decision to leave office regarding Electoral College votes for Biden. This smooth transition of power in the White House also supported the risk-on market sentiment and weighed over the safe-haven greenback that added losses in the currency pair USD/JPY.
Furthermore, on the data front, at 04:30 GMT, the Tokyo Core CPI for the year came in as -0.7% against the expected -0.6% and weighed on the Japanese Yen and capped further losses in the USD/JPY pair on Friday.
The risk-on market sentiment failed to impress the USD/JPY buyers. The traders were more focused on the U.S. dollar’s weakness instead of the rising optimism surrounding the global economic recovery due to vaccine development.

Several candidates worldwide, including Pfizer & BioNtech, Moderna, and AstraZeneca, have reported a 60-95% efficacy rate of their vaccine ad said that it would be available for use within weeks as some have applied for US FDA approval for emergency authorization use.

AstraZeneca vaccine is considered the cheapest vaccine as it can be stored at ordinary room temperature or refrigerator temperature, but it requires two dosages to reach a 90% efficacy rate. The hopes for global economic recovery and the outlook for 2021 have improved and weighed on the safe-haven U.S. dollar that ultimately added pressure on the USD/JPY pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

104.27      104.63

104.09      104.79

103.92      104.98

Pivot point: 104.44

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY pair’s recent price action has violated the choppy trading range of 104.700 – 104.056. On the lower side, the USD/JPY pair can drop further until the next support level of 103.667 level, especially after the breakout of the 104.150 support level. On the higher side, a bullish breakout of 104.700 resistance can extend the buying trend until the next resistance area of 104.700 and 105.063 level. On the lower side, the support continues to hold around the 103.667 level. The MACD suggests selling bias in the USD/JPY pair; thus, we should consider selling trade below 104.150 and buying above the same. Good luck!

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave Forex Market Analysis

EURJPY Advances from Demand Zone Forecasted

In mid-November, we commented about the technical market context of the EURJPY cross, as its big picture displayed in its weekly chart revealed a technical formation identified as a triangle pattern, which continues progressing since mid-2014.

Moreover, our previous mid-term Elliott wave analysis in its 12-hour chart revealed the advance of an incomplete corrective structure of Minor degree, which currently advances in wave B in green.

In this regard, our main outlook anticipated the progress in its wave ((b)) of Minute degree identified in black. The internal structure also suggested a limited decline toward the demand zone between 122.951 and 122.317. Once reached, the price could have completed the internal wave (b) of Minuette degree labeled in blue. 

Once the cross completed its wave (b), in blue, the cross should begin its wave (c), in blue, with a potential target in the supply zone between 125.285 and 126.123.

Technical Outlook

Currently, the EURJPY cross in its 12-hour chart reveals the bounce from the previous demand zone forecasted, where the price began to advance in its wave (c) in blue.

In the previous chart, we distinguish wave (c)‘s upward progress, which should evolve in a five-wave sequence according to the Elliott Wave theory. The figure also shows the potential target zone between 125.285 and the psychological barrier of 126.

This price landscape brings us three potential scenarios for the current upward movement:

  • First scenario: The EURJPY cross reaches the supply zone between 125.285 and 126.123, completing its wave ((b)) in black, and the price starts to decline in an internal five-wave sequence corresponding to wave ((c)).
  • Second scenario: The cross’ short-term rally fails to surpass the end of wave (a), in blue, and begins to decline. This scenario should be indicative of strong bearish pressure.
  • Third scenario: EURJY price action surpasses the invalidation level located on 127.075. In this case, the cross could be creating a bullish breakout of the long-term triangle, suggesting the continuation of the long-term bullish trend.

Nevertheless, before placing any position on the bearish side or continue on the bullish side, the price action must confirm the end of wave ((b)) in black.

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave Forex Market Analysis Forex Technical Analysis

AUDNZD: Potential Bounce among Overall Weakness

This analysis discusses AUDUSD’s overall Elliott Structure, the likelihood of a short bounce in the AUDUSD, and its potential continuation.

This analysis discusses AUDUSD’s overall Elliott Structure, the likelihood of a short bounce in the AUDUSD, and its potential continuation.

This analysis discusses AUDUSD’s overall Elliott Structure, the likelihood of a short bounce in the AUDUSD, and its potential continuation.

Technical Overview

In our last AUDNZD technical analysis, the Oceanic cross was moving in an incomplete complex corrective sequence corresponding to wave (c) of Minuette degree labeled in blue, which belongs to wave ((y)) of Minute degree identified in black. 

As illustrated in the following 8-hour chart corresponding to our previous mid-November analysis, we commented on the broadening corrective formation the cross develops, which implies an acceleration of the downward sequence. Also, the move that pierced below the wave (a) in blue suggested further declines in the following trading sessions.

Likewise, we observed the potential bearish reaction areas for the decline until two potential demand zones. The first one located between 1.05186 and 1.04870, and the second one bounded between 1.03511 and 1.02864.

On the other hand, according to the Elliott wave theory, a complex corrective formation as a double-three pattern follows an internal sequence subdivided into 3-3-3, where each “three” corresponds to a single complete corrective wave.

Once completed, the current corrective structural series of wave 2 or B of Minor degree, the AUDNZD cross should give way to the start wave 3 or C, in green.

Technical Outlook

The AUDNZD cross in the next 8-hour chart exposes the price action advancing in its wave iii of Subminuette degree labeled in green, which belongs to the incomplete wave (c) of Minuette degree identified in blue. 

Considering the acceleration present in wave (c), the cross could develop an internal upward corrective movement corresponding to wave iv, in green. This move could find resistance in the adjacent supply zone between 1.0457 and 1.05603, where the cross could resume its downward movement, leading it to complete the wave ((y)) of Minute degree and, in consequence, wave 2 or B, in green. 

Once the current downward sequence finishes, the Oceanic cross will be ready for a new long-term rally corresponding to wave 3 or C, in green, which according to the Elliott wave theory, should be the largest wave of the impulsive sequence.

Finally, the invalidation level for the short-term bearish scenario is found at 1.07029, above the end of wave ii in green.

 

Categories
Forex Signals

GBP/USD Upward Trend in Play – Quick Update on Buy Signal! 

Our forex trading signal on the GBP/USD pair is doing well as the market has bounced off over the 1.3330 support level. On the higher side, Cable may find resistance at 1.3400 level that’s extended by the double top pattern on the two-hour timeframe. Simultaneously, the bullish crossover of the 1.3400 level is likely to open additional room for buying until the 1.3446 level. On the 4 hour timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has formed a bullish channel that supports the pair at the 1.333 area, and violation of this level on the lower side can drive a strong selling trend until the 1.3270 mark. The RSI and MACD are suggesting a selling trend in sterling. However, I will prefer to open a buying trade over the 1.3330 area today as the market has the potential to go after the 1.3400 level. 

Our forex trading signal on the GBP/USD pair is doing well as the market has bounced off over the 1.3330 support level. On the higher side, Cable may find resistance at 1.3400 level that’s extended by the double top pattern on the two-hour timeframe. Simultaneously, the bullish crossover of the 1.3400 level is likely to open additional room for buying until the 1.3446 level. On the 4 hour timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has formed a bullish channel that supports the pair at the 1.333 area, and violation of this level on the lower side can drive a strong selling trend until the 1.3270 mark. The RSI and MACD are suggesting a selling trend in sterling. However, I will prefer to open a buying trade over the 1.3330 area today as the market has the potential to go after the 1.3400 level. 

Our forex trading signal on the GBP/USD pair is doing well as the market has bounced off over the 1.3330 support level. On the higher side, Cable may find resistance at 1.3400 level that’s extended by the double top pattern on the two-hour timeframe. Simultaneously, the bullish crossover of the 1.3400 level is likely to open additional room for buying until the 1.3446 level. On the 4 hour timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has formed a bullish channel that supports the pair at the 1.333 area, and violation of this level on the lower side can drive a strong selling trend until the 1.3270 mark. The RSI and MACD are suggesting a selling trend in sterling. However, I will prefer to open a buying trade over the 1.3330 area today as the market has the potential to go after the 1.3400 level. 


Entry Price – Buy 1.33719

Stop Loss – 1.33319

Take Profit – 1.34119

Risk to Reward – 1:1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.

iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368

Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, November 27 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – French Events in Focus! 

The economic calendar is a bit muted on the last trading day of the week as investors seem to enjoy the Thanksgiving holiday. However, France is due to report few low impact economic events such as French Consumer Spending with a positive forecast of 3.6% vs. -5.1%, Prelim CPI m/m with a neutral forecast of 0.0%, and Prelim GDP with a neutral growth rate forecast of 18.2% vs. 18.2%. These events are likely to have a muted impact on the market today. 

The economic calendar is a bit muted on the last trading day of the week as investors seem to enjoy the Thanksgiving holiday. However, France is due to report few low impact economic events such as French Consumer Spending with a positive forecast of 3.6% vs. -5.1%, Prelim CPI m/m with a neutral forecast of 0.0%, and Prelim GDP with a neutral growth rate forecast of 18.2% vs. 18.2%. These events are likely to have a muted impact on the market today. 

The economic calendar is a bit muted on the last trading day of the week as investors seem to enjoy the Thanksgiving holiday. However, France is due to report few low impact economic events such as French Consumer Spending with a positive forecast of 3.6% vs. -5.1%, Prelim CPI m/m with a neutral forecast of 0.0%, and Prelim GDP with a neutral growth rate forecast of 18.2% vs. 18.2%. These events are likely to have a muted impact on the market today. 

 

Economic Events to Watch Today  

  

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.19123 after placing a high of 1.19406 and a low of 1.18850. EUR/USD pair hit a fresh 2-months high on Thursday in the early trading session and started to decline and ended up posting losses for the day after the German Consumer Confidence contracted.

At 12:00GMT, the German GfK Consumer Climate in November missed the market’s expectations and dropped to -6.7 against the expected -4.9 and weighed on Euro. At 14:00 GMT, the M3 Money Supply for the year from Eurozone remained flat at 10.5%. Private Loans for the year also came in line with the expectations of 3.1%.

The Eurozone’s largest economy, Germany, appeared to struggle to shake off the coronavirus crisis as consumers’ confidence declined. The investors became cautious about it. That weighed on the single currency Euro and added in the losses of EUR/USD pair.

Furthermore, the European Central bank (ECB) published its November policy meeting minutes in which the policymakers believe that there was the possibility that pandemic might have long-lasting effects. They were cautious that pandemics might take a toll on the demand side, supply sides and reduce the economy’s growth potential.

Minutes revealed that Inflation would remain negative for longer while employment could contract further. Policymakers believed that flexibility from PEPP was essential to its continued success, and they wanted to wait for a further fiscal response before reacting instead. They were of the review that more bond-buying may not have the same impact now. There were no surprises in the minutes as Central Bank has begun to pave the way towards additional easing next December.

The single currency Euro came under pressure after releasing these minutes from the European Central Bank and weighed on EUR/USD pair on Thursday. The U.S. markets were closed due to the Thanksgiving Holiday, and as Friday is not an official holiday, thin trading is expected to extend into the weekend.

Moreover, the currency pair also followed yesterday’s release of the flash US GDP data for the third quarter that remained low at 33.1% in annualized terms and raised concerns over the world’s largest economy. The coronavirus vaccine and the U.S. stimulus talks are considered as the prevailing risks to the Federal Reserve’s outlook going ahead.

The demand for safe-haven greenback continued to slip with the global economy’s improving outlook after the release of vaccines for a deadly virus. The weak U.S. dollar kept the losses in EUR/USD pair limited on Thursday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.1885      1.1934

1.1859      1.1957

1.1836      1.1983

Pivot point: 1.1908

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

On Friday, the direct currency pair EUR/USD is trading with a bullish bias at the 1.1912 level, holding above an immediate resistance becomes a support level of the 1.1905 level. On the higher side, the EUR/USD pair may find resistance at 1.1979, and a bullish breakout of 1.199 level can extend the upward trend until 1.1942. On the 2 hour timeframe, the EUR/USD pair has violated the symmetric triangle pattern that was extending resistance at the 1.19052 level, and now this level is working as a support. Let’s consider taking a buying trade over the 1.1905 level, and above this, the next target stays at 1.1997.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.33550 after a high of 1.33974 and a low of 1.33218. GBP/USD pair struggled to surpass the 1.3400 level and was unable to do so during the early European session, and after that, sellers came in and reversed the pair’s movement to as low as 1.3320 level.

The GBP/USD pair was amongst the worst performers on Thursday out of the G10 currencies, with losses of around 40 pips on the day. After posting gains for four consecutive days, the GBP/USD pair declined on Thursday. Much of the GBP/USD pair’s bullish rally was due to the U.S. dollar’s weakness following the U.S. President-elect Joe Biden’s victory at the start of the month was also escalated by the combination of vaccine optimism and the increasingly dovish tone of the FOMC.

Federal Reserve is expected to squeeze their asset purchase program in December to offer the economy more stimulus because of the rising number of coronavirus cases across the States that has forced the local governments to impose a second lockdown, as the fiscal stimulus from Congress remains indefinable.

Meanwhile, British Pound has also performed significantly better during this month as the hopes surrounding the Brexit deal were higher after the French compromise over the fisheries issue. An agreement over one sticking point also revealed progress made in the Brexit agreement and supported the Sterling that added gains in GBP/USD pair. Furthermore, the vaccine development from Pfizer & BioNtech, Moderna, and AstraZeneca also gave strength to the GBP/USD pair after adding demand for the market’s risk sentiment.

However, on Thursday, the tone behind GBP/USD was changed somewhat after the hopes for a Brexit deal started to fade away. Many reports suggested that the remaining key sticking issues related to Ireland and level playing field were proving to be very hard to reach an agreement. During Thursday’s European session, the Irish Foreign Minister said that Brexit’s outstanding issues were proving to be complicated. E.U. sources also reported that talks between the E.U. and the U.K. were not going well. Simultaneously, the French Foreign Minister put public pressure on the U.K. to adopt a more realistic negotiating stance on Wednesday that faded the optimistic tone around the market and weighed on GBP/USD pair.

During the Thanksgiving Holiday in the U.S. and, in the absence of any macroeconomic data from the U.K., the GBP/USD pair continued following the latest headlines and dropped on Thursday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3318      1.3394

1.3282      1.3434

1.3242      1.3470

Pivot point: 1.3358

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD traded in line with our previous forecast to hit the support level of 1.333, which is extended by an upward channel. On the higher side, Cable may find resistance at 1.3400 level that’s extended by the double top pattern on the two-hour timeframe. Simultaneously, the bullish crossover of the 1.3400 level is likely to open additional room for buying until the 1.3446 level. On the 4 hour timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has formed a bullish channel that supports the pair at the 1.333 area, and violation of this level on the lower side can drive a sharp selling trend until the 1.3270 mark. The RSI and MACD are suggesting a selling trend in sterling. However, I will prefer to open a buying trade over the 1.3330 area and selling trade below the same level today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 104.233 after placing a high of 104.479 and a low of 104.214. On Thursday, the U.S. dollar was down in early trading session subdued by weak U.S. economic data. The optimism surrounding the coronavirus vaccines prompted investors to seek out riskier assets instead of safe-haven. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) was down on Thursday against the basket of six major currencies by 0.3% at 91.97 level, the lowest level in more than two months as the volume was limited due to the holiday in the U.S. for Thanksgiving.

In late Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its last monetary policy meeting, and they showed that Fed members debated on a range of options on bond purchases to support the recovery, including pivoting to purchases of longer-term securities that could put more pressure on the dollar by keeping longer-term yield unattractively low. These comments from the Fed weighed on the U.S. dollar and added pressure on the USD/JPY pair on Thursday.

Meanwhile, the number of global coronavirus cases reached above 60 million on Thursday, out of which 12.7 million were from the U.S., according to Johns Hopkins University. Many states in the U.S. started to impose restrictive measures to curb the increasing numbers of coronavirus cases that led to more job losses, weighed on the U.S. dollar, and kept the USD/JPY pair under pressure.

Positive data from 3 vaccine candidates and their efficacies, along with a smoother transition to Joe Biden administration in the U.S., added pressure on the greenback and forced investors to move towards riskier currencies. Reports also suggested that the Fed’s monetary easing was on its way that continued weighing on the greenback and added pressure on the USD/JPY pair. Apart from this, a mixed performance in the European equity markets provided a modest lift to the safe-haven Japanese yen that ultimately contributed to the USD/JPY pair’s fall on Thursday.

Due to the absence of any macroeconomic data on the day and the thin liquidity conditions due to the Thanksgiving Holiday, the pair USD/JPY continued following the last day’s economic data of Unemployment claims that showed a negative labor market report and added pressure on the pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

104.27      104.63

104.09      104.79

103.92      104.98

Pivot point: 104.44

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY pair’s recent price action has violated the choppy trading range of 104.700 – 104.056. On the lower side, the USD/JPY pair can drop further until the next support level of 103.667 level, especially after the breakout of the 104.150 support level. On the higher side, a bullish breakout of 104.700 resistance can extend the buying trend until the next resistance area of 104.700 and 105.063 level. On the lower side, the support continues to hold around the 103.667 level. The MACD suggests selling bias in the USD/JPY pair; thus, we should consider selling trade below 104.150 and buying above the same. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

AUD/USD Upward Channel Continues to Support Bullish Bias – What’s Next?

The AUD/USD pair was closed at 0.73570 after placing a high of 0.73742 and a low of 0.73533. The Australian dollar tried to rally during the early session on Thursday but gave back some of its gains and ended up losing. This week has been quite supportive to the riskier currencies like the Australian dollar and Aussie has been on its highest since September level due to the combination of vaccine news, the beginning of Joe Biden transition, and the weakness of the US dollar.

The AUD/USD pair was closed at 0.73570 after placing a high of 0.73742 and a low of 0.73533. The Australian dollar tried to rally during the early session on Thursday but gave back some of its gains and ended up losing. This week has been quite supportive to the riskier currencies like the Australian dollar and Aussie has been on its highest since September level due to the combination of vaccine news, the beginning of Joe Biden transition, and the weakness of the US dollar.

The AUD/USD pair was closed at 0.73570 after placing a high of 0.73742 and a low of 0.73533. The Australian dollar tried to rally during the early session on Thursday but gave back some of its gains and ended up losing. This week has been quite supportive to the riskier currencies like the Australian dollar and Aussie has been on its highest since September level due to the combination of vaccine news, the beginning of Joe Biden transition, and the weakness of the US dollar.

The US dollar was weak on Wednesday after the US Labor Market data showed that the Initial Jobless Claims rose to 778,000 from the previous 748,000 during last week, and the trade deficit was climbed to $80,29B from the previous $79.36B. The negative macroeconomic data on Wednesday also drove the AUD.USD pair on the next day as there was no data to be released due to Thanksgiving Holiday.

During thin trading, the Aussie suffered as the pair were left with the macroeconomic data from Australia. At 05:30 GMT, the Private Capital Expenditure for the quarter in Australia declined to -3.0% from the forecasted -1.5% and weighed heavily on the Australian dollar that added pressure on AUD/USD pair.

Meanwhile, the market’s risk sentiment was also deteriorated because of the increased number of coronavirus cases from across the globe. The total number of worldwide coronavirus cases reached above 60 million and weighed on market sentiment.

Out of 660 Million cases, 12.7M were from the world’s largest economy, the United States. The rising number of coronavirus cases in the US forces many state governments to impose lockdown restrictions that added pressure on the US dollar and the market’s risk sentiment.

The risk perceived Aussie suffered on Thursday despite the latest coronavirus update that Queensland had decided to allow Victorians to enter the state from Dec-1st without quarantining. The pair AUD/USD followed the market mood that was disturbed by the rising number of coronavirus cases, and the pair ended up posting small losses on Thursday.


Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

0.7349 0.7371

0.7341 0.7383

0.7328 0.7392

Pivot point: 0.7362

The AUD/USD is approaching a resistance level at 0.73400, which has now been violated and the AUD/USD pair has the potential to go after the 0.7397 level. We have already captured this trade and enchased 30+ pips in a trade. For now, we will be looking for a retracement until the 0.7395-90 area to take another buying position in AUD/USD as bullish bias seems dominant today. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

GBP/USD Sell Signal Update – Brace for a Manual Close! 

The GBP/USD is trading bullish around 1.3396 level, facing resistance at 1.3400 level. The resistance level is extended by the double top pattern at 1.3400 level, and a bullish crossover of 1.3400 level is likely to open further room for buying until 1.3446 level. On the 4 hour timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has formed a bullish channel that supports the pair at the 1.333 area. The RSI and MACD are suggesting a buying trend in sterling. However, I will prefer to open a buying trade only above the 1.3396 area, and below this, sell trade will be preferred. Therefore, I have shared a sell trade below 1.3395 area to capture quick green pips. Check out a trading plan below… 

The GBP/USD is trading bullish around 1.3396 level, facing resistance at 1.3400 level. The resistance level is extended by the double top pattern at 1.3400 level, and a bullish crossover of 1.3400 level is likely to open further room for buying until 1.3446 level. On the 4 hour timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has formed a bullish channel that supports the pair at the 1.333 area. The RSI and MACD are suggesting a buying trend in sterling. However, I will prefer to open a buying trade only above the 1.3396 area, and below this, sell trade will be preferred. Therefore, I have shared a sell trade below 1.3395 area to capture quick green pips. Check out a trading plan below… 

The GBP/USD is trading bullish around 1.3396 level, facing resistance at 1.3400 level. The resistance level is extended by the double top pattern at 1.3400 level, and a bullish crossover of 1.3400 level is likely to open further room for buying until 1.3446 level. On the 4 hour timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has formed a bullish channel that supports the pair at the 1.333 area. The RSI and MACD are suggesting a buying trend in sterling. However, I will prefer to open a buying trade only above the 1.3396 area, and below this, sell trade will be preferred. Therefore, I have shared a sell trade below 1.3395 area to capture quick green pips. Check out a trading plan below… 


Entry Price – Sell 1.33519

Stop Loss – 1.33919

Take Profit – 1.33119

Risk to Reward – 1:1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

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Categories
Forex Signals

USD/CAD Violates Choppy Session – Bearish Setup in Play! 

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.30060 after placing a high of 1.30288 and a low of 1.29860. The currency pair USD/CAD rose to1.3030 level in the early trading session but failed to remain there and started to decline on the back of US dollar weakness and the rising crude oil prices on Wednesday.

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.30060 after placing a high of 1.30288 and a low of 1.29860. The currency pair USD/CAD rose to1.3030 level in the early trading session but failed to remain there and started to decline on the back of US dollar weakness and the rising crude oil prices on Wednesday.

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.30060 after placing a high of 1.30288 and a low of 1.29860. The currency pair USD/CAD rose to1.3030 level in the early trading session but failed to remain there and started to decline on the back of US dollar weakness and the rising crude oil prices on Wednesday.

The US’s mixed macroeconomic data failed to help the greenback gather strength against its rival currencies and forces the USD/CAD pair to lose most of its daily gains in the late trading session. There was no macroeconomic data from the Canadian side, so the pair followed the US data on Wednesday.

On the data front, at 18:30 GMT, the Prelim Gross Domestic Product for the third quarter remained flat at 33.1%. The Unemployment Claims from last week surged to 778K against the projected 732K and weighed on the US dollar. The Core Durable Goods Orders for October surged to 1.3% against the projected 0.5% and supported the US dollar. The Durable Goods Orders rose to 1.3% from the forecasted 1.0% and supported the US dollar. The Prelim Wholesale Inventories for October rose to 0.9% against the expected 0.4% and weighed on the US dollar.

The New Home Sales for October rose to 999K against the forecasted 972K and supported the US dollar. The Personal Income fell to -0.7% from the projected 0.0% and weighed on the US dollar. The Personal Spending raised to 0.5% from the anticipated 0.4% and supported the US dollar.

On the other hand, the weekly report published by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that the Crude Oil stocks declined by 0.75M barrels last week and boosted oil prices. 

The WTI crude oil raised above the $46 level on Wednesday and gave strength to the Canadian dollar that added pressure on the USD/CAD pair.

However, the pair managed to remain on the positive side as the market mood was still risky due to the rising hopes of global economic recovery from the latest progress made in coronavirus vaccines from Pfizer & BioNtech, Moderna, and AstraZeneca.

Meanwhile, from Canada, almost 1,373 cases of coronavirus were reported, along with 35 additional deaths in Ontario. The total number of deaths from coronavirus in Toronto reached 3554 on Wednesday. The currency pair also remained strong ahead of the FOMC minutes release published in the early Thursday session.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.2979 1.3026

1.2959 1.3051

1.2933 1.3072

Pivot Point: 1.3005

The USD/CAD has violated the sideways trading range of 1.3119 – 1.3035 level. A bearish breakout of the 1.3035 level is likely a further selling trend until the 1.2936 level. The pair forms a neutral candle, suggesting indecision among investors, perhaps due to lack of economic events. Secondly, the investors are expecting thin volatility amid the Thanksgiving holiday. Let’s consider staying bearish below 1.3030 today. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave Forex Market Analysis

Beware of these Supply and Demand Zones on the GBPJPY

The short-term overview for the GBPJPY pair reveals the sideways movement in a trading range bounded by its 90-day high and low range between levels of 133.040 and 142.714. The cross recently developed a rally that found resistance in the bullish sentiment zone resistance located on 140.296, where the GBPJPY presents a set of scenarios.

The short-term overview for the GBPJPY pair reveals the sideways movement in a trading range bounded by its 90-day high and low range between levels of 133.040 and 142.714. The cross recently developed a rally that found resistance in the bullish sentiment zone resistance located on 140.296, where the GBPJPY presents a set of scenarios.

The short-term overview for the GBPJPY pair reveals the sideways movement in a trading range bounded by its 90-day high and low range between levels of 133.040 and 142.714. The cross recently developed a rally that found resistance in the bullish sentiment zone resistance located on 140.296, where the GBPJPY presents a set of scenarios.

Technical Overview

The following 12-hour chart illustrates the short-term market participants’ sentiment bounded by the 90-day high and low range. The figure presents a bullish bias that remains active since the GBPJPY found fresh buyers on 133.040.

After the cross found resistance at 140.296, the price action retraced it until a neutral zone located on 137.877, forming an intraday sideways channel that suggests a pause in the short-term bullish cycle.

On the other hand, the following figure unveils that the retail traders’ market sentiment is positioned on the bearish side. As the chart shows, 75% of retail traders hold their positioning on the sell-side, which is contrarian.

(source: myfxbook.com)

In this context, we can see that numerous retail traders are expecting a downward movement, while the price action remains moving in the bullish sentiment without exposing a reversal pattern. Thus, it is plausible the GBPJPY pair could develop a new upward movement.

Short-term Technical Outlook

The short-term Elliott Wave view shows a movement inside an incomplete corrective wave of Minor degree, labeled in green, which could be in its wave C. 

The following chart shows the price action developing an upward corrective rally, which could correspond to a wave (ii) or (b) of Minute degree identified in green. In this context, the following movement should correspond to wave (iii) or (c).

Under this scenario, if the supply zone between 139.831 and 140.315 confirms the end of the current second segment, in blue, GBPJPY should begin a decline to the first demand zone between 137.594 and 137.196. Moreover, the market action could extend its down move toward the next demand zone between 134.997 and 134.404.

An alternative scenario considers the possibility of the price extending its advance beyond the 140.315 level. In this case, the GBPJPY could find fresh sellers in the next supply zone between 141.759 and 142.714. The pair could complete its wave B in green and start to weaken, developing the wave C subdivided into a five-wave sequence with a potential target in the demand zones identified in green.

Finally, the invalidation level of the bearish scenario is set above the origin of wave A in green at 142.714

Categories
Forex Signals

AUD/USD Continues Trading Upward Channel – Quick Trade Setup! 

The AUD/USD pair was closed at 0.73658 after placing a high of 0.73732 and a low of 0.73248. The AUD/USD pair extended its gains on Wednesday after falling to the 0.73200 level. The pair fell in an earlier trading session on the day but reversed its direction after releasing U.S. macro-economic data.

The AUD/USD pair was closed at 0.73658 after placing a high of 0.73732 and a low of 0.73248. The AUD/USD pair extended its gains on Wednesday after falling to the 0.73200 level. The pair fell in an earlier trading session on the day but reversed its direction after releasing U.S. macro-economic data.

The AUD/USD pair was closed at 0.73658 after placing a high of 0.73732 and a low of 0.73248. The AUD/USD pair extended its gains on Wednesday after falling to the 0.73200 level. The pair fell in an earlier trading session on the day but reversed its direction after releasing U.S. macro-economic data.

At 05:30 GMT, the Construction Work done in the third quarter in Australia came in as -2.6% against the forecasted -2.0% and weighed on the Australian dollar. From the U.S. side, at 18:30 GMT, the Prelim GDP for the third quarter came in line with the expectations of 33.1%. The Unemployment Claims from last week surged to 778K against the estimated 732K and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added gains in AUD/USD pair. The Core Durable Goods Orders for October rose to 1.3% against the estimated 0.5% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Durable Goods Orders raised to 1.3% from the anticipated 1.0% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Prelim Wholesale Inventories for October surged to 0.9% against the projected 0.4% and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added further gains in AUD/USD pair.

The New Home Sales for October surged to 999K against the estimated 972K and supported the U.S. dollar. The Personal Income dropped to -0.7% from the anticipations of 0.0% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The Personal Spending rose to 0.5% from the projected 0.4% and supported the U.S. dollar.

The rising unemployment claims and personal income data weighed on the optimism that economic recovery was near and faded the risk sentiment. The risk rally deteriorated after the mixed macroeconomic data from the U.S. and weighed on the risk perceived Aussie that caused the pair to fall in an earlier session.

The pair managed to end its day on a bullish stance due to U.S. dollar weakness in the absence of any major fundamental. The market mood was smooth on Wednesday and the risk perceived AUD/USD continued following the previous optimism regarding the vaccine development from AstraZeneca and Moderna. Pfizer and BioNtech were close to getting approval from the US FDA for emergency use authorization of their vaccine, causing an immediate rise in risk rally and supporting further the AUD/USD currency pair. Investors also remained cautious on Wednesday and followed the previous daily movement ahead of the release of FOMC minutes from the November meeting.


Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

0.7333 0.7383

0.7304 0.7404

0.7284 0.7433

Pivot point: 0.7354

The AUD/USD long term view of the market is bullish. We were approaching a resistance level at 0.73400, which has now been violated and the AUD/USD pair has the potential to go after the 0.7397 level. We have already captured this trade and enchased 30+ pips in a trade. For now, we will be looking for a retracement until the 0.7395-90 area to take another buying position in AUD/USD as bullish bias seems dominant today. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, November 26 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Thanksgiving Day! 

The economic calendar is a bit muted amid the Thanksgiving holiday. Most Forex brokers remain open for every holiday except Christmas and New Year’s Day. Stock markets and banks have slightly different holiday schedules. In addition to this, the eyes will remain on ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts during the European session. It’s a detailed record of the ECB Governing Board’s most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates. 

The economic calendar is a bit muted amid the Thanksgiving holiday. Most Forex brokers remain open for every holiday except Christmas and New Year’s Day. Stock markets and banks have slightly different holiday schedules. In addition to this, the eyes will remain on ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts during the European session. It’s a detailed record of the ECB Governing Board’s most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates. 

The economic calendar is a bit muted amid the Thanksgiving holiday. Most Forex brokers remain open for every holiday except Christmas and New Year’s Day. Stock markets and banks have slightly different holiday schedules. In addition to this, the eyes will remain on ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts during the European session. It’s a detailed record of the ECB Governing Board’s most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates. 

Economic Events to Watch Today  

  

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair closed at 1.19136 after placing a high of 1.18959 and a low of 1.18334. EUR/USD pair extended its upward momentum on Wednesday amid the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness and the rising optimism around the market. 

The risk sentiment was triggered by the latest vaccine development that suggested a quick economic recovery and pushed riskier assets like EUR/USD pair on the higher levels. The currency pair EUR/USD rose and placed fresh highs on Wednesday after reaching its highest level since mid-August.

The U.S. dollar was weak on Wednesday after the release of mixed and depressing data from the U.S. The Unemployment claims rose unexpectedly and weighed on the U.S. dollar, and supported the upward momentum in EUR/USD pair.

On the data front, there was no data from the Europe side on Wednesday, while from the U.S., at 18:30 GMT, the Prelim Gross Domestic Product for the third quarter came in line with the anticipations of 33.1%. The Unemployment Claims from last week rose to 778K against the projected 732K and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The Core Durable Goods Orders for October rose to 1.3% against the estimated 0.5% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Durable Goods Orders also rose to 1.3% from the projected 1.0% and helped the U.S. dollar. The Goods Trade Balance from the U.S. for October came in as forecasted -80.3B. The Prelim Wholesale Inventories for October rose to 0.9% against the estimated 0.4% and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added strength to EUR/USD pair.

At 18:36 GMT, the Prelim GDP Price Index for the third quarter also remained as expected at 3.6%. At 20:00 GMT, the Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment for November also came in line with the projections of 76.9. The Core PCE Price Index for October remained flat with the predictions of 0.0%. The New Home Sales for October surged to 999K against the anticipated 972K and supported the U.S. dollar. The Personal Income declined to -0.7% from the projected 0.0% and weighed on the U.S. dollar added in the gains of EUR/USD pair. The Personal Spending raised to 0.5% from the forecasted 0.4% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Revised UoM Inflation Expectations also came in line as expected at 2.8%.

On Wednesday, the European Central Bank released its review on the economy’s financial stability. The central bank warned that European banks would not see profits return to the pre-pandemic level before 2022. According to ECB, the Eurozone leaders have struggled to make sizeable profits over the last decade after the 2008 global financial crisis with more robust regulatory scrutiny and low-interest rates. While the recent coronavirus crisis has worsened bottom lines further, and that will continue to affect the financial sector in the coming months.

In simple words, the banks’ profitability will remain weak, which could hurt their ability to lend money to businesses and individuals that would also reflect the economy’s weak health. These comments from ECB failed to break the upward momentum of the EUR/USD pair on Wednesday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.1888     1.1936

1.1861     1.1957

1.1841     1.1984

Pivot point: 1.1909

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is trading with a bullish bias at the 1.1936 level, holding below an immediate resistance level of 1.1979. On the higher side, the EUR/USD pair may find resistance at 1.1979, and a bullish breakout of 1.199 level can extend the upward trend until 1.1942. On the 2 hour timeframe, the EUR/USD pair has violated the symmetric triangle pattern that was extending resistance at the 1.19052 level, and now this level is working as a support. Let’s consider taking a buying trade over the 1.1905 level, and above this, the next target stays at 1.1997.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair closed at 1.33864 after a high of 1.33935 and a low of 1.33037. GBP/USD pair extended its gains for the 4th consecutive session on Wednesday amid the U.S. dollar weakness and the rising global market confidence due to vaccine progress. Meanwhile, the currency pair GBP/USD also remained under pressure on Wednesday after the Brexit uncertainty returned to the market.

The GBP/USD pair has been trading with an upside bias since the start of this week due to rising optimism in the market regarding the latest vaccine developments. Pfizer and BioNtech first reported its vaccine’s efficacy rate, followed by Moderna and AstraZeneca within two weeks. The back to back vaccine progress and the fact that Pfizer and BioNtech have already filed for emergency use authorization of their vaccine and others being in line for it has further supported the market’s risk sentiment.

The risk perceived GBP/USD pair gained traction and saw a jump in demand on expectations that the U.K. and the E.U. were getting closer to reaching a deal on Brexit. However, on Wednesday, the lack of recent progress raised uncertainty in the market and weighed on British Pound.

The French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian recently commented that British proposals in the latest negotiations were insufficient. He also accused the U.K. of slowing talks over secondary subjects and playing with the calendar. He urged that securing a deal over fisheries will not be the adjustment variable in the talks.

Meanwhile, a BBC reporter Katya Adler also tweeted that E.U. sources have said that there were doubts about the E.U. Brexit negotiator Michelle Barnier going to London to negotiate once he leaves quarantine on Friday and that the talks were not going well. These updates were also confirmed by the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, who said on Wednesday morning that she could not say if there will be a deal and the next few days would be decisive.

All this Brexit news dented the expectations that the two sides will eventually reach a deal on key sticking points. However, market participants decided not to react to such news for Wednesday and continued following the market’s optimism.

On the data front, at 18:30 GMT, the Prelim Gross Domestic Product for the third quarter remained flat with the expectations of 33.1%. The Unemployment Claims from last week surged to 778K against the anticipated 732K and weighed on the U.S. dollar. 

The Core Durable Goods Orders for October raised to 1.3% against the forecasted 0.5% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Durable Goods Orders increased to 1.3% from the estimated 1.0% and helped the U.S. dollar. The Goods Trade Balance from the U.S. for October remained flat at -80.3B. The Prelim Wholesale Inventories for October raised to 0.9% against the projected 0.4% and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added strength to GBP/USD pair.

At 18:36 GMT, the Prelim GDP Price Index for the third quarter also came in line with the projections of 3.6%. At 20:00 GMT, the Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment for November also remained flat at 76.9. The Core PCE Price Index for October stayed the same at 0.0%. The New Home Sales for October raised to 999K against the estimated 972K and supported the U.S. dollar. The Personal Income fell to -0.7% from the forecasted 0.0% and weighed on the U.S. dollar added in the GBP/USD pair’s gains. The Personal Spending rose to 0.5% from the projected 0.4% and supported the U.S. dollar. Revised UoM Inflation Expectations also remained flat at 2.8%.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3325     1.3416

1.3269     1.3451

1.3235     1.3507

Pivot Point: 1.3360

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading bullish around 1.3396 level, facing resistance at 1.3400 level. The resistance level is extended by the double top pattern at 1.3400 level, and a bullish crossover of 1.3400 level is likely to open further room for buying until 1.3446 level. On the 4 hour timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has formed a bullish channel that supports the pair at the 1.333 area. The RSI and MACD are suggesting a buying trend in sterling. However, I will prefer to open a buying trade over the 1.3396 area today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair closed at 104.456 after a high of 104.596 and a low of 104.253. The USD/JPY pair stayed relatively low, around 104.5 level for the majority of the day, and remained more down during the American trading hours due to mixed macroeconomic data releases from the U.S.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) edged lower in the late American session, remained at the 91.97 level, and kept the U.S. dollar depressed. On the data front, at 18:30 GMT, the Prelim Gross Domestic Product for the third quarter remained flat at 33.1%. The Unemployment Claims from last week rose to 778K against the expected 732K and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The Core Durable Goods Orders for October rose to 1.3% against the expected 0.5% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Durable Goods Orders surged to 1.3% from the anticipated 1.0% and helped the U.S. dollar. 

The Goods Trade Balance from the U.S. for October remained flat with the expectations of -80.3B. The Prelim Wholesale Inventories for October rose to 0.9% against the estimated 0.4% and weighed on the U.S. dollar.

At 18:36 GMT, the Prelim GDP Price Index for the third quarter remained flat at 3.6%. At 20:00 GMT, the Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment for November stayed at 76.9. The Core PCE Price Index for October came in line with the expectations of 0.0%. The New Home Sales for October surged to 999K against the projected 972K and supported the U.S. dollar. The Personal Income dropped to -0.7% from the expected 0.0% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The Personal Spending surged to 0.5% from the forecasted 0.4% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Revised UoM Inflation Expectations also came in line with the anticipations of 2.8%.

The rising unemployment claims and declined personal income weighed on the local currency while the durable goods orders and new home sales, along with the personal spending, supported the U.S. dollar on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, from the Japanese side, the year’s SPPI declined to -0.6% from the forecasted -0.5% and weighed on the Japanese Yen. At 09:59 GMT, the BoJ Core CPI for the year raised to 0.0% from the forecasted -0.1% and supported the Japanese Yen that added weight on the USD/JPY pair on Wednesday.

The currency pair USD/JPY remained bullish throughout the day despite the U.S.’s mixed economic data on the back of rising optimism in the market. The global market sentiment remained confident due to the rising number of vaccine candidates reporting progress. The race to file for emergency use authorization of vaccine started with Pfizer and BioNtech has extended to AstraZeneca and Moderna that has helped raised hopes for a pre-pandemic economic environment and supported the risk sentiment.

The rising risk sentiment added weight on the safe-Haven Japanese Yen and supported the USD/JPY pair’s upward momentum on Wednesday. Another factor involved in the USD/JPY pair’s upward movement was the beginning of the transition of the presidency of President-elect Joe Biden.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

104.27     104.63

104.09     104.79

103.92     104.98

Pivot point: 104.44

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY continues to trade in a fresh choppy range of 104.700 – 104.056 level. On the higher side, a bullish breakout of 104.700 resistance can extend the buying trend until the next resistance area of 104.700 and 105.063 level. On the lower side, the support continues to hold around 104.056 and 103.667 level. The MACD suggests an overbought situation of the USD/JPY pair; thus, we should look for selling trade below 104.598 and buying above the same. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

EURCAD Looks Bouncing from Demand Zone

The EURCAD cross is still moving in a likely incomplete triangle pattern, developing since mid-March when the price found resistance on 1.59914. As pictured by the following 12-hour chart, the mid-term Elliott Wave structure shows the incomplete progress of a contracting triangle of Minor degree labeled in green.

The EURCAD cross is still moving in a likely incomplete triangle pattern, developing since mid-March when the price found resistance on 1.59914. As pictured by the following 12-hour chart, the mid-term Elliott Wave structure shows the incomplete progress of a contracting triangle of Minor degree labeled in green.

The EURCAD cross is still moving in a likely incomplete triangle pattern, developing since mid-March when the price found resistance on 1.59914. As pictured by the following 12-hour chart, the mid-term Elliott Wave structure shows the incomplete progress of a contracting triangle of Minor degree labeled in green.

Technical Overview

According to the Elliott wave theory, the triangle pattern follows an internal structure subdivided into 3-3-3-3-3 waves. In this context, the EURCAD triangle appears to be completing its third internal segment and start developing a new rally corresponding to wave D of Minor degree, identified in green.

On the other hand, considering the Alternation Principle, and in view that the movement developed by the wave C, in green seems like a complex corrective sequence, which took an extended time span, the following move -corresponding to wave D, could develop in a shorter time range. In this regard, it is possible that the cross would create an aggressive rally.

Short-term Technical Outlook

The short-term view displayed in its 12-hour chart (shown above) shows that the EURCAD reacted mostly upward in the demand zone identified in green between 1.54535 and 1.54273. This situation leads to expect that market participants could continue pushing it higher.

An alternative scenario considers the possibility of a new limited decline toward the next demand zone between 1.53688 and 1.53130. In this zone, the cross could find fresh buyers and complete its wave C of Minor degree, identified in green.

On the other hand, before taking any position on the bullish side, it is convenient to wait for the descending upper-line breakout that connects the waves (ii) and (iv). This would confirm the cross’s bullish bias. As for the targets, the suggested following movement, corresponding to wave D, in green, could rise till the next supply zone, located between 1.59139 and 1.59791.

Finally, the bullish scenario has its invalidation level at the end of wave A in green, located at 1.50562

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave Forex Market Analysis Forex Technical Analysis

Would you Trade this CADJPY Pattern?

The CADJPY cross moved up in the Tuesday trading session, boosted by the stock market’s risk-on sentiment. Although the cross advances 2.25% during the current month, the price is under -4% (YTD).

The CADJPY cross moved up in the Tuesday trading session, boosted by the stock market’s risk-on sentiment. Although the cross advances 2.25% during the current month, the price is under -4% (YTD).

The CADJPY cross moved up in the Tuesday trading session, boosted by the stock market’s risk-on sentiment. Although the cross advances 2.25% during the current month, the price is under -4% (YTD).

Technical Overview

The CADJPY prices represented in the next 12-hour chart reveal the short-term market participants’ sentiment moving in the 90-day high and low range. The figure illustrates the cross advancing mostly upward in the bullish sentiment zone.

On the other hand, the previous chart presents a contracting triangle, which began in early June when CADJPY found fresh sellers on 81.909, followed by a first support level at 77.614. According to the classic chartist theory, the triangle pattern distinguishes itself as a continuation formation. In this case, this contracting triangle suggests further upsides.

In this regard, the likely next move could lead to a test of its intraday resistance of 80.591: this level corresponds to the bullish sentiment zone’s resistance, as well. If the price overcomes it and extends its upward advance, the cross could reach its supply zone between 80.985 and 81.424, a level that matches the triangle pattern’s upper trendline.

Conversely, a downward correction could drop it to its demand zone between 79.468 and 79.237.

Short-term Technical Outlook

The short-term Elliott Wave view for the CADJPY cross displayed in the next 4-hour chart reveals the advance in an incomplete internal structural series of a contracting triangle pattern, which currently advances developing its wave (e) of Minuette degree, labeled in blue.

The previous chart presents the price advancing in the wave b of Subminuette degree, identified in blue, which belongs to wave (e), also in blue. According to the Elliott Wave theory, the triangle pattern follows an internal sequence subdivided into 3-3-3-3-3 waves. In this context, and observing its advance in the triangle formation, the cross could develop its latest decline before starting a rally that corresponds to wave ((c)) of Minute degree, labeled in black.

The current downward move, corresponding to wave c, in green, could reach two potential demand zones. The first one is located between 79.468 and 79.237, whereas the second one is seen from 78.878 to 78.394.

Once CADJPY starts to get fresh buyers, the cross could experience a strong rally and test June’s high zone of 81.909.

Finally, the bullish scenario has its invalidation level below the wave (a) of Minuette degree in blue located at 77.585, under the contracting triangle pattern limits.

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, November 25 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Unemployment Claims Eyed! 

The economic calendar is filled with medium impact economic events such as Unemployment Claims, UoM Consumer Sentiment, and Prelim GDP q/q from the United States on the news front. The market may show some price action during the U.S. session on the release of U.S. Jobless Claims.

The economic calendar is filled with medium impact economic events such as Unemployment Claims, UoM Consumer Sentiment, and Prelim GDP q/q from the United States on the news front. The market may show some price action during the U.S. session on the release of U.S. Jobless Claims.

The economic calendar is filled with medium impact economic events such as Unemployment Claims, UoM Consumer Sentiment, and Prelim GDP q/q from the United States on the news front. The market may show some price action during the U.S. session on the release of U.S. Jobless Claims.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.18897 after placing a high of 1.18959 and a low of 1.18334. After placing losses for two consecutive days, the EUR/USD pair rose and started to post gains on Tuesday amid the rising optimism and risk sentiment surrounding the market.

The safe-haven appeal suffered after AstraZeneca’s latest news that its vaccine could reach a 90% efficacy rate on the second dosage from 70% in the first one. However, the EUR/USD pair traders remained confused on Tuesday and moved the currency pair between gains and losses throughout the day and ended the day with gains as optimism regarding vaccine overshadowed the U.S. dollar’s strength. The U.S. dollar was strong in the market ahead of Wall Street’s opening; however, it fell under selling pressure after the U.S. Consumer Confidence fell in November. 

On the data front, at 12:00 GMT, the German Final GDP for the third quarter raised to 8.5% against the forecasted 8.2% and supported the single currency Euro that added further gains in EUR/USD pair. AT 14:00 GMT, the German IFO Business Climate for November also raised to 90.7 against the expected 90.3 and supported EUR/USD pair. At 19:00 GMT, the Housing Price Index for September elevated to 1.7% against the projected 0.8% and supported the U.S. dollar from the U.S. side. 

The S&P/CS Composite -20 HPI for the year also surged to 6.6% against the expected 5.3% and supported the U.S. dollar that ultimately capped further gains in EUR/USD pair. At 19:59 GMT, the Richmond Manufacturing Index dropped to 15 points from the projected 20 and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added gains in EUR/USD pair. The most awaited C.B. Consumer Confidence from the U.S. was released at 20:00 GMT also fell to 96.1 against the anticipated 97.7 and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added further gains in EUR/USD pair on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the reports that the U.S. President Trump has agreed with the transition process with Joe Biden and that the White House has given the go-ahead to Biden raised the risk sentiment and added further gains EUR/USD pair. Furthermore, the vaccine hopes also kept the market sentiment improved with the news that the new vaccine developed by AstraZeneca, a British Pharmaceutical, can provide 90% protection against the coronavirus and be cheaper against the previous Pfizer and Moderna due to its comfortable storage facility. These reports raised hopes that the global economy will start recovering now, and the riskier asset EUR/USD pair gained traction and started posting gains.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.1851     1.1911

1.1814     1.1934

1.1791     1.1972

Pivot point: 1.1874

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is trading with a bullish bias at the 1.1895 level, holding below an immediate resistance level of 1.1912. On the higher side, the EUR/USD pair may find resistance at 1.1912, and a bullish breakout of 1.1912 level can extend the upward trend until 1.1942. On the 2 hour timeframe, the EUR/USD pair was supported by an upward trendline, which got violated, and now the same trendline is supporting EUR/USD pair at 1.1862. Let’s look for a selling trade below the 1.1866 level today. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.33615 after a high of 1.33802 and a low of 1.32929. The currency pair GBP/USD continued its bullish movement on Tuesday for the 3rd consecutive day. The GBP/USD pair continued getting support from the British Pound’s strength after the rising Brexit optimism in the market. The hopes that a Brexit deal will be reached soon between the U.K. and the E.U. kept underpinning the Sterling and forced GBP/USD pair to remain on the market’s positive side.

Although nothing has been confirmed about the Brexit deal, the talks between both nations have been extended into this week. On Tuesday, a member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee said Tuesday that vaccine news had provided some light at the end of the tunnel.

He also said that he saw a long-term scarring effect from the coronavirus outbreak. He added that it was too early to say that vaccine news will significantly improve the Bank’s economic outlook for 2021. He said that even if the economy came back because of the vaccine, it would have to face the economy-Brexit’s further long-term problem.

On the data front, at 16:00 GMT, the CBI Realized Sales for November came in as -25 against the forecasted -34 and supported British Pound and added in the gains of the GBP/USD pair. At 19:00 GMT, the Housing Price Index for September rose to 1.7% against the expected 0.8% and supported the U.S. dollar from the U.S. side. The S&P/CS Composite -20 HPI for the year also raised to 6.6% against the estimated 5.3% and helped the U.S. dollar that ultimately capped further gains in GBP/USD pair. At 19:59 GMT, the Richmond Manufacturing Index fell to 15 points from the anticipated 20 and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added gains in GBP/USD pair. The most awaited C.B. Consumer Confidence from the U.S. was released at 20:00 GMT, also fell to 96.1 against the projected 97.7 and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added further gains in GBP/USD pair on Tuesday.

Furthermore, the GBP/USD pair was also supported by the latest optimism in the market that had kept the risk-on market sentiment improved. The risk perceived British Pound was supported by the risk sentiment raised by the AstraZeneca vaccine news. Its vaccine was proven to be 90% effective in the second dosage. It was said to be cheaper as it can be stored in an ordinary refrigerator compared to Pfizer, and Moderna’s vaccines that provide 95% protection against the virus were not so easy to store. This optimism also kept the market’s risk sentiment on the upper side and continued supporting the GBP/USD pair on Tuesday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3289     1.3312

1.3274     1.3320

1.3266     1.3336

Pivot point: 1.3297

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD traded bearishly at 1.3340, having bounced off over the support area of the 1.3292 level. On the higher side, the pair may go after the resistance level of 1.3394. Over there’s an upward trendline that is supporting Sterling on the 2-hour timeframe. The Cable below the 1.3292 level may find support at the 1.3240 level while the RSI and MACD support buying. Thus we should consider taking buying trade over the 1.3292 level to target 1.3394. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 104.439 after placing a high of 104.759 and a low of 104.144. The pair USD/JPY seesawed on Tuesday as it moved in an upward direction in early trading hours and reached near 104.76 level while in the late trading session, the USD/JPY pair started to lose its earlier gains and continued its bearish bias. The selling bias in the currency pair USD/JPY raised on Tuesday after posting massive gains on Monday amid the mixed market sentiment. The safe-haven Japanese Yen was under pressure on Tuesday after the positive market mood circulated due to progress in AstraZeneca’s coronavirus vaccine.

The equity market rallied after the latest optimism regarding the 90% adequate protection against the coronavirus with a comfortable storage facility compared to Pfizer’s and Moderna vaccine’s 95% protection against the virus with a difficult storage facility. The market participants continued following the optimism and shifted towards riskier assets against the safer ones.

The equity market was also boosted on Tuesday, with Dow Jones moving up at 30,000 points and the three main indexes in Wall Street rising by 1.5% each. The risk rally in Wall Street added pressure on the safe-haven Japanese Yen and supported the USD/JPY pair’s upward momentum on Tuesday. The USD/JPY pair could not remain on the upper side for long and started to lose its earlier gains after releasing the U.S. Macroeconomic data. At 19:00 GMT, the Housing Price Index for September from the U.S. rose to 1.7% against the anticipated 0.8% and supported the U.S. dollar. The S&P/CS Composite -20 HPI for the year also raised to 6.6% against the estimated 5.3% and helped the U.S. dollar. At 19:59 GMT, the Richmond Manufacturing Index was dropped to 15 points from the forecasted 20 and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added pressure on the USD/JPY pair. The most awaited C.B. Consumer Confidence from the U.S. was also released at 20:00 GMT that fell to 96.1 against the estimated 97.7 and weighed on the U.S. dollar that ultimately added in the losses of the USD/JPY pair on Tuesday.

The decline in Consumer Confidence in November weighed on the local currency U.S. dollar as the rising number of coronavirus cases in the U.S. was raising questions over the economic recovery in the absence of further stimulus aid. The talks were set to resume between Republicans and Democrats to discuss the possibility of delivering an additional aid package in December.

Furthermore, the latest news from the White House that the U.S. President-elect Joe Biden was formally given the go-ahead by the federal agency to begin his transition to the presidency also capped further losses in the USD/JPY pair on Tuesday. The U.S. General Services Administration (GSA), an independent agency, determined that Biden was the outward winner of the election and informed Biden that his transition until January 20 could officially begin. The go-ahead was given by the White House to Biden to intensify the fight against the coronavirus. All these positive news kept the risk-on market sentiment supported and continued supporting the USD/JPY pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

103.76     103.87

103.69     103.93

103.64     103.99

Pivot point: 103.81

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY continues to trade in a fresh choppy range of 104.700 – 104.056 level. On the higher side, a bullish breakout of 104.700 resistance can extend the buying trend until the next resistance area of 104.700 and 105.063 level. On the lower side, the support continues to hold around 104.056 and 103.667 level. The MACD suggests an overbought situation of the USD/JPY pair; thus, we should look for selling trade below 104.598 and buying above the same. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

AUD/JPY Triple Top Pattern Offering Sell Trade – Quick Update! 

During Wednesday’s Asian trading session, the AUD/JPY currency pair failed to halt its modest bearish moves and remained depressed near below the 77.00 level due to Australia’s downbeat housing data, which tends to undermine the Australian dollar and contribute to the currency pair declines. Apart from this, the reason for the currency pair’s losses could also be attributed to the prevalent Brexit risks and trade tussles between China and the West, which keep challenging the upbeat market mood and undermining the perceived riskier Australian dollar. 

During Wednesday’s Asian trading session, the AUD/JPY currency pair failed to halt its modest bearish moves and remained depressed near below the 77.00 level due to Australia’s downbeat housing data, which tends to undermine the Australian dollar and contribute to the currency pair declines. Apart from this, the reason for the currency pair’s losses could also be attributed to the prevalent Brexit risks and trade tussles between China and the West, which keep challenging the upbeat market mood and undermining the perceived riskier Australian dollar. 

During Wednesday’s Asian trading session, the AUD/JPY currency pair failed to halt its modest bearish moves and remained depressed near below the 77.00 level due to Australia’s downbeat housing data, which tends to undermine the Australian dollar and contribute to the currency pair declines. Apart from this, the reason for the currency pair’s losses could also be attributed to the prevalent Brexit risks and trade tussles between China and the West, which keep challenging the upbeat market mood and undermining the perceived riskier Australian dollar. 

On the contrary, the market risk-on sentiment, backed by the optimism over a potential vaccine for the highly dangerous coronavirus infection, tends to undermine the safe-haven Japanese yen and becomes the key factor that helps the currency pair limit its deeper losses. Furthermore, the risk-on market sentiment could also be attributed to the reports suggesting that the U.S. presidential transition has finally started, which offers political certainty. Across the pond, the downbeat Japanese corporate service price index data added further burden around the Japanese yen and became the key factor that kept the lid on any additional losses in the currency pair. Currently, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 76.67 and consolidating in the range between 76.64 – 77.05.

Despite the lingering doubts about the U.S. economic recovery and the escalating tension between the world’s two biggest economies, the market players continue to cheering optimism over a potential vaccine for the highly dangerous coronavirus infection, boosts the hopes of global economic recovery and supporting the market trading sentiment. Thus, these further developments surrounding the covid vaccine favor the market’s risk-on mood. However, the perceived risk currency Australian dollar is relatively unaffected by the risk-on market sentiment and remains defensive amid downbeat housing data from Australia. At the data front, the Constriction Work Done for the 3rd-quarter (Q3) dropped below -2.0% forecast and -0.7% previous readouts to -2.3% QoQ.

Across the pond, the reason for the upbeat market mood could also be associated with the on-going optimism over the U.S. economy as President-elect Joe Biden has recently been allowed to receive the President’s Daily Brief, the collection of classified intelligence reports prepared for the national leader. This, in turn, undermined the safe-haven Japanese yen and became the key factor that helps the currency pair limit its deeper losses. Moreover, the currency pair’s losses were also capped by the downbeat Japanese corporate service price index data, which tends to undermine the Japanese yen and helps the currency pair to cap its downside momentum.

On the other hand, the intensifying coronavirus woes across the globe and intensifying lockdown restrictions in Europe and the U.S. keep challenging the upbeat market sentiment, which could also be considered one of the key factors the currency pair down. The reason could also be associated with the long-lasting delay in the much-awaited coronavirus (COVID-19) relief package, which also probes the bulls and contributes to currency pair declines.

Looking ahead, the market traders will keep their eyes on the U.S. economic calendar, which will show the releases of the U.S. Preliminary Q3 GDP, Initial Jobless Claims, Durable Goods, and Core PCE Index. This data will likely influence the USD price dynamics and help traders to take some fresh directions. All in all, the updates surrounding the Brexit, virus, and U.S. stimulus package will not lose their importance.



Daily Support and Resistance

S1 75.57

S2 76.15

S3 76.52

Pivot Point 76.73

R1 77.1

R2 77.31

R3 77.88

The AUD/JPY pair faced resistance at 77 levels, holding below an immediate support level of 76.58. A bearish breakout of the 76.58 level can extend selling bias until the 76.23 level. The MACD and RSI are holding below a double top level of 77, suggesting odds of a selling bias in the AUD/JPY. Continuing a selling trend can lead the AUD/JPY until 76.58 and 76.25 level today, thus we entered the sell trade signal. Stay tuned; good luck! 

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave Forex Market Analysis

Is the US Dollar Index Ready for a Bounce?

The US Dollar Index (DXY) advances in the extreme bearish sentiment zone finding an intraday support on Monday’s trading session at 92.016. During this intraday bounce, the price jumped to the extreme bearish zone’s resistance, where the price action started to consolidate. Even considering this intraday recovery, the Greenback accumulates losses of nearly 4.40% (YTD).

The US Dollar Index (DXY) advances in the extreme bearish sentiment zone finding an intraday support on Monday’s trading session at 92.016. During this intraday bounce, the price jumped to the extreme bearish zone’s resistance, where the price action started to consolidate. Even considering this intraday recovery, the Greenback accumulates losses of nearly 4.40% (YTD).

The US Dollar Index (DXY) advances in the extreme bearish sentiment zone finding an intraday support on Monday’s trading session at 92.016. During this intraday bounce, the price jumped to the extreme bearish zone’s resistance, where the price action started to consolidate. Even considering this intraday recovery, the Greenback accumulates losses of nearly 4.40% (YTD).

Technical Overview

The US Dollar Index, represented in its 8-hour chart, shows the market sentiment’s participants moving within its 90-high and low range, and it reveals the bearish pressure on the Greenback. In this regard, as long as the price keeps moving below 92.663, the short-term trend should stay mostly bearish.

On the other hand, the big picture under the Elliott Wave perspective illustrated in its 8-hour chart reveals the progress in an incomplete corrective formation, which could correspond to a flat pattern.

According to the wave theory, the flat pattern follows an internal sequence subdivided into 3-3-5. In this case, the Greenback should advance in a rally in a wave ((c)) of Minute degree identified in black subdivided into five segments.

An alternative scenario considers the possibility of a triangle pattern (3-3-3-3-3) or a double-three (3-3-3) in progress. However, the structure observed until this point doesn’t allow us to confirm or discard any of these potential Elliott wave formations.

Short-term Technical Outlook

The Greenback in its 4-hour range unveils the completion of the wave ((b)) of Minute degree labeled in black in the demand zone between 92.019 and 91.750, where the price bounced from on Monday’s trading session until 92.800.


Once the price reacted mostly upward, the US Dollar Index began to decline in a wave ii or B of Subminuette degree identified in green. In this regard, a bullish confirmation should lead us to expect further upward movements that could boost the price toward the next supply zone between 93.343 and 93.545.

If the Elliott wave formation corresponds to a Flat pattern, the price could surpass the supply zone level of 94.303 and seek to test the end of wave ((a)) located on 94.742.

On the other hand, we should be aware that a rally in the US Dollar Index implies a potential drop in the pairs against the US Dollar, for example, EURUSD or GBPUSD.

Finally, the return to a  bullish scenario holds its invalidation level at 92.016, which corresponds to the bottom of the first upwards move identified in green.

Categories
Forex Signals

AUD/USD Breaking Over Triple-Top Pattern – Quick 32 pips Encashed! 

The AUD/USD pair was closed at 0.72859 after placing a high of 0.73371 and a low of 0.72651. On Monday, AUD/USD pair rose and reached a near 0.73380 level amid the risk-on market sentiment; however, the gains started to decline and eventually ended up losing due to increased demand for the US dollar.

The AUD/USD pair was closed at 0.72859 after placing a high of 0.73371 and a low of 0.72651. On Monday, AUD/USD pair rose and reached a near 0.73380 level amid the risk-on market sentiment; however, the gains started to decline and eventually ended up losing due to increased demand for the US dollar.

The AUD/USD pair was closed at 0.72859 after placing a high of 0.73371 and a low of 0.72651. On Monday, AUD/USD pair rose and reached a near 0.73380 level amid the risk-on market sentiment; however, the gains started to decline and eventually ended up losing due to increased demand for the US dollar.

The market’s risk sentiment was improved after AstraZeneca; the British pharmaceutical said that its vaccine was 90% effective in preventing the coronavirus with the second dosage. The risk perceived Australian dollar gained traction with the increased risk sentiment and supported the AUD/USD pair’s gains on Monday. However, the AUD/USD pair’s upward momentum started to reverse its direction after the US macroeconomic data released. At 15:00 GMT, Flash Manufacturing PMI from Australia in November came in as 56.1 in comparison to the previous 54.2. Flash Services PMI from Australia came in as 54.9 against the previous 53.7. At 19:45 GMT, the Flash Manufacturing PMI from the US in November surged to 56.7 against the estimated 52.5 and supported the US dollar that weighed on AUD/USD pair. The Flash Services PMI rose to 57.7 against the expected 55.8 and kept the US dollar and added pressure on AUD/USD pair.

Another factor involved in the AUD/USD pair’s downward momentum on Monday was the latest punitive measures imposed by the US over China. The US Trump Administration has banned US investment in 89 Chinese companies and reportedly sent a navy admiral to Taiwan.

Many reports suggest plans by Trump’s administration for a series of confrontations with China before Biden’s inauguration on 20th January. These concerns also kept the risk perceived Australian dollar under pressure and added further in AUD/USD pair losses.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

0.7303 0.7321

0.7290 0.7328

0.7284 0.7340

Pivot point: 0.7309

The general and long term view of the market is bullish. We were approaching a resistance level at 0.73400, which has now been violated and the AUD/USD pair has the potential to go after the 0.7397 level. We have already captured this trade and enchased 30+ pips in a trade. For now, we will be looking for a retracement until the 0.7395-90 area to take another buying position in AUD/USD as bullish bias seems dominant today. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

GBP/USD Bounces off Upward Trendline Support – Quick Update on Signal

The GBP/USD pair closed at 1.33222 after a high of 1.33975 and a low of 1.32636. The British Pound raised to its 10-weeks high level and then gave up some gains against the U.S. dollar in late trading sessions on the back of U.S. dollar strength. The rise in GBP/USD pair came in after the rising optimism over a Brexit deal after the European Commission reportedly told E.U. ambassadors that 95% of a post-Brexit deal had been agreed.

The GBP/USD pair closed at 1.33222 after a high of 1.33975 and a low of 1.32636. The British Pound raised to its 10-weeks high level and then gave up some gains against the U.S. dollar in late trading sessions on the back of U.S. dollar strength. The rise in GBP/USD pair came in after the rising optimism over a Brexit deal after the European Commission reportedly told E.U. ambassadors that 95% of a post-Brexit deal had been agreed.

The GBP/USD pair closed at 1.33222 after a high of 1.33975 and a low of 1.32636. The British Pound raised to its 10-weeks high level and then gave up some gains against the U.S. dollar in late trading sessions on the back of U.S. dollar strength. The rise in GBP/USD pair came in after the rising optimism over a Brexit deal after the European Commission reportedly told E.U. ambassadors that 95% of a post-Brexit deal had been agreed.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.3289 1.3312

1.3274 1.3320

1.3266 1.3336

Pivot point: 1.3297

The GBP/USD traded bearishly at 1.3290, but it now seems to bounce off over the support area of the 1.3292 level. On the higher side, the pair may go after the resistance level of 1.3394. Over there’s an upward trendline that is supporting Sterling on the 2-hour timeframe. Below the 1.3292 level, the Cable may find support at the 1.3240 level while the RSI and MACD are in support of buying. Thus we should consider taking buying trade over the 1.3292 level to target 1.3394. 


Entry Price – Buy 1.33583

Stop Loss – 1.33631

Take Profit – 1.33983

Risk to Reward – 1:1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

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Forex Market Analysis

USD/CAD Breaking Below Triple Bottom – Brace for a Sell Trade! 

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.30853 after placing a high of 1.31123 and a low of 1.30452. The USD/CAD pair remained flat during the Monday trading session as the strength of the US dollar kept the pair on the upside while the strength of the Canadian dollar dragged the pair on the lower side simultaneously, which resulted in a flat movement.

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.30853 after placing a high of 1.31123 and a low of 1.30452. The USD/CAD pair remained flat during the Monday trading session as the strength of the US dollar kept the pair on the upside while the strength of the Canadian dollar dragged the pair on the lower side simultaneously, which resulted in a flat movement.

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.30853 after placing a high of 1.31123 and a low of 1.30452. The USD/CAD pair remained flat during the Monday trading session as the strength of the US dollar kept the pair on the upside while the strength of the Canadian dollar dragged the pair on the lower side simultaneously, which resulted in a flat movement.

The rise in the USD/CAD pair was due to the better-than-expected macroeconomic data on Monday. At 19:45 GMT, the Flash Manufacturing PMI from the US in November raised to 56.7 against the forecasted 52.5, supported the US dollar, and pushed the USD/CAD pair higher. The Flash Services PMI surged to 57.7 against the anticipated 55.8 and kept the US dollar and added gains in the USD/CAD pair.

However, the USD/CAD pair’s gains could not live longer as the improved risk sentiment in the market continuously supported the riskier Canadian dollar. The latest news from AstraZeneca, a British pharmaceutical, said that its vaccine effectively prevented coronavirus. AstraZeneca’s first dosage of vaccine could provide 70% immunity from the virus, whereas the second dosage could provide 90% immunity.

The rising optimism after the vaccine developers’ positive reports gave strength to risk perceived Canadian dollar that added weight on the USD/CAD pair on Monday. Meanwhile, the WTI Crude Oil prices also weighed on the USD/CAD pair after the prices of crude oil rose above the $43 level on Monday amid the rising optimism in the market that, with the progress in vaccine development, the chances for lifting the lockdown restrictions increased that would raise the demand for crude oil.

The rising crude oil prices helped the commodity-sensitive Canadian dollar gather strength against its rival currencies supported by the optimism that coronavirus vaccines will lead to a steady recovery in energy demand. The strong Loonie weighed on the USD/CAD pair, and the pair lost all of its earlier daily gains.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.3079 1.3093

1.3073 1.3101

1.3065 1.3108

Pivot Point: 1.3087


Entry Price – Sell 1.30711

Stop Loss – 1.30711

Take Profit – 1.29911

Risk to Reward – 1:1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.

iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368

Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, November 24 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Consumer Confidence in Focus!

On the news front, the focus will remain on the U.S. Prelim Consumer Confidence and C.B. Leading Index m/m, which are expected to report mixed outcomes and drive choppy movement in the U.S. dollar. Let’s focus on technical levels today.

On the news front, the focus will remain on the U.S. Prelim Consumer Confidence and C.B. Leading Index m/m, which are expected to report mixed outcomes and drive choppy movement in the U.S. dollar. Let’s focus on technical levels today.

On the news front, the focus will remain on the U.S. Prelim Consumer Confidence and C.B. Leading Index m/m, which are expected to report mixed outcomes and drive choppy movement in the U.S. dollar. Let’s focus on technical levels today.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 


 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair closed at 1.18402 after placing a high of 1.19058 and a low of 1.17997. The EUR/USD pair rose to its highest since November 9 and reversed its direction after that, and continued placing losses for the day. The decline in the EUR/USD pair despite the improved risk sentiment was due to the U.S. dollar’s strength. The risk-on market sentiment was supported by the latest optimism from various vaccine developments. In contrast, the strength in the U.S. dollar was derived from better-than-expected U.S. macroeconomic data on Monday.

A British pharmaceutical AstraZeneca announced that its potential vaccine was more than 90% effective in its clinical trials for protecting the coronavirus. The first dosage of its vaccine provides 70% protection, while the second dosage could increase the efficacy rate to 90%.

AstraZeneca also said that it would be cheaper than its rival Pfizer vaccine as it can be stored at refrigerator temperature while Pfizer’s vaccine requires a frozen temperature that could make its cost of distribution higher.

Meanwhile, the risk sentiment was also supported by the reports that the US FDA has approved the antibody-drug used by U.S. President Donald Trump last month during his treatment of coronavirus for emergency use. These optimistic reports gave the EUR/USD pair strength in the earlier session and pushed its prices to their highest since November 9.

On the data front, at 13:15 GMT, the French Flash Services PMI declined to 38.0 against the forecasted 39.2 and weighed on Euro. The French Flash Manufacturing PMI also fell to 49.1 against the projected 50.2 and weighed on Euro. At 13:30 GMT, the German Flash Manufacturing PMI raised to 57.9 against the forecasted 56.0 and supported Euro. German Flash Services PMI remained flat with the expectations of 46.2. At 14:00 GMT, Flash Manufacturing PMI from Eurozone in November raised to 53.6 from the projected 53.2 and supported single currency Euro. Flash Services PMI declined 41.3 against the expected 42.2 and weighed on Euro.

The mixed data from Eurozone related to business activity failed to provide any significant movement in EUR/USD pair while the currency pair followed the U.S. dollar movement after the release of macroeconomic data in the American session.

At 19:45 GMT, the Flash Manufacturing PMI from the U.S. in November rose to 56.7 against the projected 52.5 and supported the U.S. dollar. The Flash Services PMI surged to 57.7 against the projected 55.8 and supported the U.S. dollar. After the release of better than expected Manufacturing and Services PMI, the strong U.S. dollar exerted pressure on EUR/USD pair on Monday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.1855      1.1871

1.1845      1.1877

1.1839      1.1888

Pivot point: 1.1861

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD traded sharply bearish, falling from 1.1866 level to 1.1816 support level, which is extended by double bottom level. Closing of a candle over 1.1816 is supported by bullish correction, but at the same time, the EUR/USD pair may also head further higher until the 1.1866 resistance mark. On the 2 hour timeframe, the EUR/USD pair was supported by an upward trendline, which got violated on Monday, and now the same trendline is supporting EUR/USD pair. Let’s look for a selling trade below the 1.1866 level today. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair closed at 1.33222 after a high of 1.33975 and a low of 1.32636. The British Pound raised to its 10-weeks high level and then gave up some gains against the U.S. dollar in late trading sessions on the back of U.S. dollar strength. The rise in GBP/USD pair came in after the rising optimism over a Brexit deal after the European Commission reportedly told E.U. ambassadors that 95% of a post-Brexit deal had been agreed. The deal might be announced over the coming days to allow sufficient time for ratification by the European Parliament before year-end, possibly just the week after Christmas.

Meanwhile, on the data front, at 14:30 GMT, the Flash Manufacturing PMI from the U.K. raised to 55.2 against the forecasted 50.5 and supported British Pound and supported GBP/USD pair. The Flash Services PMI for November from the U.K. also raised to 45.8 against the forecasted 43.2 and supported British Pound and added gains in the GBP/USD pair.

From the U.S. side, at 19:45 GMT, the Flash Manufacturing PMI from the U.S. in November surged to 56.7 against the anticipated 52.5 and supported the U.S. dollar that capped further gains in GBP/USD pair. The Flash Services PMI rose to 57.7 against the forecasted 55.8 and supported the U.S. dollar, and GBP/USD pair lost some of its gains.

Meanwhile, on Monday, the Governor of Bank of England Andrew Bailey said that the long-term effects of a no-deal Brexit on the economy would be worse than the coronavirus pandemic’s long-term impacts. He added that he was relatively optimistic about the economy’s ability to recover from the coronavirus outbreak, but it would be more difficult to adjust with the U.K. trading with the E.U. on World Trade Organization terms.

These concerns added pressure on risk-on market sentiment and made GBP/USD pair to lost some of its earlier daily losses.

Furthermore, Prime Minister Boris Johnson confirmed that the England lockdown would be lifted on December 2, though regional restrictions would be kept to stop coronavirus spread. The second lockdown miscued the U.K. economy that the economy could slip into a double-dip recession and these concerns also added pressure on the GBP/USD pair that lost some of its earlier daily gains.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.3289      1.3312

1.3274      1.3320

1.3266      1.3336

Pivot point: 1.3297

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD traded bearishly at 1.3290, but it now seems to bounce off over the support area of the 1.3292 level. On the higher side, the pair may go after the resistance level of 1.3394. Over there’s an upward trendline that is supporting Sterling on the 2-hour timeframe. Below the 1.3292 level, the Cable may find support at the 1.3240 level while the RSI and MACD are in support of buying. Thus we should consider taking buying trade over the 1.3292 level to target 1.3394. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair closed at 104.544 after placing a high of 104.635 and a low of 103.681. The USD/JPY pair rose by about 100 pips on Monday after the U.S. dollar became strong across the board. The strength of the greenback was derived from the release of macroeconomic data from the U.S.

At 19:45 GMT, the Flash Manufacturing PMI from the U.S. in November raised to 56.7 against the estimated 52.5 and supported the U.S. dollar. The Flash Services PMI surged to 57.7 against the estimated 55.8 and supported the U.S. dollar that added gains in the USD/JPY pair on Monday.

The better-than-expected U.S. business activity data showed that it was expanded in November at its fastest rate in more than five years and boosted optimism about the U.S. economy’s health that lifted the U.S. dollar, and provided strength to the rising USD/JPY pair.

Other than economic data, the USD/JPY pair was also supported by the market’s rising risk sentiment. The risk sentiment was supported by the latest optimism regarding vaccine developments from different countries. AstraZeneca, the British pharmaceutical, said that its vaccine was 70% effective on the first dosage and 90% effective on the second dosage.

It also reported that it would be cost-effective also as it does not require the frozen temperature to be stored and can only be stored in a refrigerator. These optimistic reports added strength in the risk sentiment and weighed on the safe-haven Japanese Yen that ultimately added strength in the USD/JPY pair.

On Monday, another positive news was that Regeneron’s coronavirus antibody cocktail that President Donald Trump used last month when he was hospitalized with COVID-19 had been approved for an emergency authorization use by the US FDA. There were also reports that the vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNtech will likely be approved by the US FDA by December 11 and will be available for Americans to use.

With more progress in the vaccine area, lifting the lockdown restrictions increased along with the chances for an economic recovery that raised the risk sentiment and weighed on the safe-haven Japanese Yen that added gains in the USD/JPY pair. However, the pandemic hit economy still needs further support from governments to go through the crisis, and that is why investors were hopeful that the Fed and European Central Banks would likely issue more stimulus aid in December. The USD/JPY pair will likely rise as the risk sentiment has been improved after vaccine development progress.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

103.76      103.87

103.69      103.93

103.64      103.99

Pivot point: 103.81

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY has violated a choppy range of 104.056 – 103.667 level. On the higher side, a bullish breakout of 104.056 resistance can extend the buying trend until the next resistance area of 104.59 and 105.063 level. On the lower side, the support continues to hold around 104.056 and 103.667 level. The MACD suggests an overbought situation of the USD/JPY pair; thus, we should look for selling trade below 104.598 and buying above the same. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Watchout the Potential Next Rally of GBPAUD

GBPAUD advances on Monday’s trading session in the bullish sentiment zone, testing the resistance level at 1.82688, which corresponds to the extreme bullish zone’s resistance.

GBPAUD advances on Monday’s trading session in the bullish sentiment zone, testing the resistance level at 1.82688, which corresponds to the extreme bullish zone’s resistance.

GBPAUD advances on Monday’s trading session in the bullish sentiment zone, testing the resistance level at 1.82688, which corresponds to the extreme bullish zone’s resistance.

Technical Overview

The following 12-hour chart illustrates the price that reached a new peak in the 90-day range at 1.85272. The cross began to retrace towards the neutral zone at level 1.80104, where the price found support and began to move mainly sideways on the bullish sentiment zone, finding resistance at level 1.82688.

Likewise, it highlights the support’s confirmation in the neutral level of the 90-day range, which leads to the observation of the upward pressure it shows the cross short term. In this context, the GBPAUD cross could experience a new rally that could lead to a test of the psychological resistance level located on 1.8500.

Short-term Technical Outlook

The short-term Elliott Wave graph of the GBPAUD cross unfolded in the following 12-hour chart shows the price action moving in an incomplete wave ((c)) of Minute degree labeled in black, which belong to the fourth wave of Minor degree identified in green.

The big picture reveals the cross is moving in an impulsive descending structure of Minor degree, in green, progressing in its fourth wave. This corrective structural series began last September 11th when the GBPAUD found fresh buyers at 1.74935.

The completion of the internal wave ((a)) at 1.85272 on October 21st and wave ((b)) at 1.79378 on November 09th leads to the anticipation of further upward movements in a five-wave internal sequence corresponding to wave ((c)) identified in black. In this regard, the previous chart shows the price starting to develop its third wave (iii) of Minuette degree, labeled in blue.

In this context, the current upward sequence in development has two potential targets as follows.

  • The first potential target is found in the supply zone between 1.84295 and 1.85272. If the price starts to decline from this zone, this could indicate a dominant bearish pressure that could drag the price toward the last September’s lows zone on 1.7500.
  • The second potential target zone is between 1.87353 and 1.89667, which corresponds with the ascending channel’s upper line. If the GBPAUD cross reaches this zone, this could indicate a dominant bullish pressure, and a correction could likely drive the price to the end of wave ((b)) on 1.7937, where the cross could find fresh buyers.

For the active intraday bullish scenario, the short-term invalidation level is located at 1.79378, which corresponds to the origin of wave ((c)).

Categories
Forex Signals

USD/CAD Choppy Trading in Play – Brace for a Breakout! 

The USD/CAD closed at 1.30921 after placing a high of 1.30967 and a low of 1.30387. The USD/CAD pair remained on the upward momentum on Friday despite the strength in WTI Crude Oil prices and the Canadian Dollar amid the positive optimism regarding the vaccines. The optimism surrounding the vaccine development from Pfizer and Moderna was also followed by Oxford, the Russian Sputnik V, and China’s Sinovac and raised the market’s risk-on sentiment that supported the risk perceived USD/CAD pair on Friday.

The USD/CAD closed at 1.30921 after placing a high of 1.30967 and a low of 1.30387. The USD/CAD pair remained on the upward momentum on Friday despite the strength in WTI Crude Oil prices and the Canadian Dollar amid the positive optimism regarding the vaccines. The optimism surrounding the vaccine development from Pfizer and Moderna was also followed by Oxford, the Russian Sputnik V, and China’s Sinovac and raised the market’s risk-on sentiment that supported the risk perceived USD/CAD pair on Friday.

The USD/CAD closed at 1.30921 after placing a high of 1.30967 and a low of 1.30387. The USD/CAD pair remained on the upward momentum on Friday despite the strength in WTI Crude Oil prices and the Canadian Dollar amid the positive optimism regarding the vaccines. The optimism surrounding the vaccine development from Pfizer and Moderna was also followed by Oxford, the Russian Sputnik V, and China’s Sinovac and raised the market’s risk-on sentiment that supported the risk perceived USD/CAD pair on Friday.

On the data front, at 18:30 GMT, the Core Retail Sales from Canada raised to 1.0% against the expectations of 0.0% and supported the Canadian Dollar. For September, the Retail Sales also grew to 1.1% from the forecasted 0.2% and kept the Canadian Dollar. The NHPI for October came in line with the projection of 0.8%. At 18:32 GMT, the Corporate Profits for the quarter from Canada also came in line with the anticipations of 44.9%.

The Canadian Dollar was strong across the board on Friday due to supportive macroeconomic data and the rising Crude oil prices. The WTI crude oil was higher on Friday above the $42.5 level after the increased optimism about the coronavirus vaccines from across the world. The rising crude oil prices also supported the commodity-linked currency Loonie that capped further USD/CAD pair gains.

Meanwhile, the Canadian health officials warned that daily coronavirus infections could reach 60K per day by the end of December from their current level of 4.8K if people continue to increase their number of daily contacts. The Canadian PM Justin Trudeau said that Canada saw a massive spike in cases and that there was a risk that hospitals could get overwhelmed. He also said that it was frustrating that Canadians would have to do more to contain the virus from what they did weeks ago. These virus tensions across the North kept the Canadian Dollar weak and supported the rising USD/CAD prices on Friday. 

On the US dollar front, the Dollar was strong across the board as the US Federal Reserve Chairman refrained from providing any clues about further easing in the upcoming Fed meeting and supported the USD/CAD pair’s upward momentum.


Daily Technical Levels:

Support Resistance

1.3039 1.3114

1.3007 1.3157

1.2964 1.3189

Pivot point: 1.3082

The USD/CAD pair is trading sideways in between the narrow range of 1.3120 – 1.3045 level. Investors seem to wait for a solid reason to trigger a breakout of the choppy range. The idea will be take a sell USD/CAD pair below 1.3045 level until 1.2937. Conversely, the continuation of a bullish trend over 1.3120 can lead the USD/CAD pair towards 1.3245. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

EUR/JPY Breaking Over Intraday Resistance – Buy Setup In-Play

During Monday’s Asian trading session, the EUR/JPY currency pair managed to gain positive traction and edged higher above the 130.00 level due to the market risk-on mood, which tends to undermine the safe-haven Japanese yen and contributes to the currency pair gains. Hence, the upbeat market sentiment was supported by optimism over a potential vaccine/treatment for the highly infectious coronavirus, which boosted the sentiment around the shared currency and helped the currency pair to stay bid. 

During Monday’s Asian trading session, the EUR/JPY currency pair managed to gain positive traction and edged higher above the 130.00 level due to the market risk-on mood, which tends to undermine the safe-haven Japanese yen and contributes to the currency pair gains. Hence, the upbeat market sentiment was supported by optimism over a potential vaccine/treatment for the highly infectious coronavirus, which boosted the sentiment around the shared currency and helped the currency pair to stay bid. 

During Monday’s Asian trading session, the EUR/JPY currency pair managed to gain positive traction and edged higher above the 130.00 level due to the market risk-on mood, which tends to undermine the safe-haven Japanese yen and contributes to the currency pair gains. Hence, the upbeat market sentiment was supported by optimism over a potential vaccine/treatment for the highly infectious coronavirus, which boosted the sentiment around the shared currency and helped the currency pair to stay bid. 

On the contrary, the worsening Coronavirus (COVID-19) Condition in Europe keeps fueling the worries over the Eurozone economic recovery, which could be considered one of the key factors that kept the lid on any additional gains in the currency pair. At the moment, the EUR/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 123.31 and consolidating in the range between the 123.02 – 123.34. Moving on, the traders seem cautious to place any strong position ahead of the German/ Eurozone flash PMIs. However, the big miss on expectations would suggest that worsening Coronavirus (COVID-19) is taking a toll on the Eurozone economy, which could lead to big declines in the shared currency.

As we already mentioned that the market trading sentiment remained well supported by the renewed optimism over a possible vaccine for the highly infectious coronavirus disease, which instantly boosted the market risk tone. The vaccine hopes were bolstered after reports came that the vaccinations against coronavirus disease in the U.S. will likely start in 3-weeks, as the FDA is showing readiness to approve drugmaker Pfizer and German partner BioNTech’s experimental candidate in mid-December. Apart from the U.S., the U.K. is expected to give Pfizer’s vaccine a green signal this week. This, in turn, boosted hopes for a global economic recovery in 2021. Therefore, the risk-on market mood tends to undermine the safe-haven Japanese yen, which becomes the key factor that lends some support to the currency pair to put some bids.

Moreover, the market trading sentiment was further bolstered by the positive developments surrounding the Brexit talks between the U.K. and the European Union (E.U.). It is worth recalling that the European Union (E.U.) and the U.K. are very closer to breaking the deadlock over fisheries’ key issue. 

On the contrary, the worsening Coronavirus (COVID-19) condition in Europe keeps fueling the worries over the Eurozone economic recovery, which could be considered one of the key factors that kept the lid on any additional gains in the currency pair. However, the shared currency’s ability to stay bid will be tested on the day as a survey-based indicator(Eurozone PMIs) is set to show the true amount of damage to the economy caused by the resurgence of coronavirus. Thus, the big miss on expectations would suggest that worsening Coronavirus (COVID-19) is taking a toll on the Eurozone economy, leading to significant declines in the shared currency. Conversely, the Upbeat PMIs, especially Germany’s manufacturing sector, could push the single currency higher.

Across the pond, the gains in the currency pair were further capped by the latest statements of Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, that the ECB will be taking action in December and caused the shared currency to come under pressure against its rivals. In the meantime, the Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said they are considering starting setting nightly curfews in the country, while the German Chancellor Angela Merkel said they are expected to limit contacts between people in private for all winter months. This, in turn, becomes the key factor that kept the lid on any further gains in the currency pair.

Looking ahead, the market traders will keep their eyes on U.S. Markit Manufacturing PMIs along with the German/ Eurozone flash PMIs, which are scheduled to release later in the day. All in all, the updates surrounding the Brexit, virus, and U.S. stimulus package will not lose their importance. 

Daily Support and Resistance

S1 122.27

S2 122.74

S3 122.94

Pivot Point 123.21

R1 123.41

R2 123.68

R3 124.16

Entry Price – Buy 123.281

Stop Loss – 122.881

Take Profit – 123.681

Risk to Reward – 1:1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.

iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368

Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave Forex Market Analysis

NZDUSD Reaches a Fresh 90-Day High

The NZDUSD pair ends the last trading week reaching its seventh fresh 90-day range high soaring to 0.69507. This advance brought the Oceanic currency to a close in the extreme bullish sentiment zone. 

The NZDUSD pair ends the last trading week reaching its seventh fresh 90-day range high soaring to 0.69507. This advance brought the Oceanic currency to a close in the extreme bullish sentiment zone. 

The NZDUSD pair ends the last trading week reaching its seventh fresh 90-day range high soaring to 0.69507. This advance brought the Oceanic currency to a close in the extreme bullish sentiment zone. 

Technical Overview

The next chart unveils the NZDUSD pair in its 8-hour timeframe, which shows the market participants’ sentiment in the 90-day high and low range. The figure illustrates the previous 90-day high and low range located at 0.67978 from September 18th. In this regard, the latest rally started on November 02nd created seven fresh 90-day highs.

On the other hand, the EMA(60)-to-Close index shows a bearish divergence that suggests both the bullish trend’s exhaustion and the price’s potential reversion to the moving average. However, a price breakdown and close below the recent lows is needed to confirm the current bullish trend’s correction.

Short-term Technical Outlook

The short-term view of the NZDUSD cross displayed under the Elliott Wave perspective reveals the intraday upward movement advancing in an incomplete Ending diagonal pattern of Minuette degree labeled in blue. Likewise, the advance of the fifth wave in blue should correspond to the ending of the fifth wave of Minute degree identified in black. Nevertheless, the Elliott Wave formation still doesn’t confirm it.

The next4-hour chart reveals the bullish sequence developed by the NZDUSD pair since October 20th when the kiwi found fresh buyers at 0.65555. Until now, the price action advanced in an incomplete upward five-wave sequence, which reached the potential target zone forecasted in a previous analysis.

According to Elliott wave theory, the Ending Diagonal pattern follows an internal sequence subdivided into 3-3-3-3-3 waves. In this context, the previous chart exposes the terminal formation of the bullish impulsive structure advancing in its fifth wave of Subminuette degree labeled in green, which provides two potential scenarios.

  • First Scenario: The price breaks below the base-line that connects the waves ii and iv, confirming the end of the Ending Diagonal pattern and starting a corrective upper degree structure.
  • Second Scenario: The price advances slightly over last Friday’s high and starts to decline below the base-line between waves ii-iv, from where the NZDUSD should begin to develop a correction of upper degree.

In both scenarios, the confirmation of the ending diagonal completion comes from the breakdown and closing below the base-line that connects the end of waves ii and iv.

Finally, the downward scenario will have its invalidation level once the ending diagonal pattern confirms its completion.

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, November 23 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – PMI Figures in Highlights! 

On the news front, eyes will remain on the Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI figures from the Eurozone, the U.K., and the United States. Almost all economic figures are expected to perform better than previous months, perhaps due to a lift of lockdown. Price action will depend upon any surprise changes in the PMI figures.

On the news front, eyes will remain on the Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI figures from the Eurozone, the U.K., and the United States. Almost all economic figures are expected to perform better than previous months, perhaps due to a lift of lockdown. Price action will depend upon any surprise changes in the PMI figures.

On the news front, eyes will remain on the Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI figures from the Eurozone, the U.K., and the United States. Almost all economic figures are expected to perform better than previous months, perhaps due to a lift of lockdown. Price action will depend upon any surprise changes in the PMI figures.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair closed at 1.18563 after placing a high of 1.18906 and a low of 1.18495. Despite vaccine-related optimism and improved risk sentiment in the market, the currency pair EUR/USD dropped on Friday amid the continuous rise in the number of coronavirus cases along with the latest disagreement between the Fed and U.S. Treasury related to the unused funds of emergency lending programs.

On Thursday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin sent a letter to Fed’s Chair Jerome Powell and asked him to return the unused funds in five emergency lending programs that will expire in December. Mnuchin claimed that those funds could be used for other purposes by Congress. Mnuhcin also asked Powell to extend the other four emergency credit facilities.

Meanwhile, the U.S. coronavirus situation got worse as November was not still over, but there have been almost 3 million new cases reported. It is about a quarter of all the U.S. cases since the beginning of the pandemic. The U.S. hospitalization rate was getting higher to an alarming level as it was forcing the health care system to reduce care for even non-COVID-19 patients.

Given the coronavirus situation in the U.S., many states announced restrictive measures to control the spread. On the European side, the situation was a bit under control after the strict lockdown measures. However, the old continent’s situation in Europe was far from getting better, and market players were worried that a steep economic downturn would be seen in the last quarter of the year.

These tensions raised the concerns that economic recovery was under pressure and supported the safe-haven appeal that ultimately weighed on the risk perceived EUR/USD pair on Friday. Furthermore, central banks’ calls for another round of stimulus measures to help support the economy started to increase. In response, the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has been refrained to give any hint about any action in December whereas, his European counterpart Christine Lagarde has said that a large easing package will be coming in the next meeting. Lagarde’s comments also weighed on the single currency that ultimately added losses in the EUR/USD pair on Friday.

At 12:00 GMT, The German PPI for October remained flat at 0.1% on the data front. At 19:50 GMT, the Consumer Confidence also came in line with the expectations of -18. There was no macroeconomic figure to be released from the U.S., which means the pair EUR/USD was unaffected by any data on Friday.

Meanwhile, the vaccine news from Pfizer and BioNtech that they were going to apply for US FDA approval for emergency authorization use of their vaccine raised the risk sentiment in the market. Combined with this optimism, the other companies, including Moderna, Oxford, the Russian Sputnik V, and China’s Sinovac, also provided updates about the vaccine’s efficacy and supported the market’s risk of improved sentiment that ultimately capped further losses in the EUR/USD pair.


Daily Technical Levels

Support  Resistance

1.1831      1.1898

1.1790      1.1924

1.1764      1.1965

Pivot point: 1.1857

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is trading with a bearish bias at the 1.173 level, forming an ascending triangle on the 2-hour timeframe. On the lower side, the pattern supports the EUR/USD pair at 1.1850, and here violation of the 1.1850 level can extend the EUR/USD pair towards the 1.1816 level. On the higher side, a bullish breakout of the 1.1889 level can extend the buying trend until the 1.1924 level. The bullish bias remains dominants today as the MACD and 50 periods EMA support a bullish trend. Let’s consider taking a buying trade over 1.1889 with a take profit of 1.1924 level. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair closed at 1.32891 after placing a high of 1.32977 and a low of 1.32403. GBP/USD remained bullish on Friday amid the latest Brexit optimism and the coronavirus vaccine’s rising hopes. The currency pair remained on the upper track this week as Brexit dominated the scene and supported the British Pound. The coronavirus situation in the U.K. was improving as the U.K. was set to announce a wide easing of coronavirus rules for a week at Christmas.

Next week, Boris Johnson will announce a plan for an easing of rules on Covid, and he also warned that the level of restrictions for the rest of next month would depend on how well the public obey the current lockdown in England that will end on 2nd December. Brexit headlines were, however, contradictory during the week as PM Boris Johnson signaled that the U.K. would prosper without a deal and E.U. officials indicated that talks could collapse. The British press talked about a French compromise on the fisheries issue that a key sticking point in the Brexit deal. After the French compromise on fisheries, the Brexit optimism continued supporting the British Pound and added gains in GBP/USD pair.

Another factor involved in the GBP/USD’s bullish sentiment, Pfizer and BioNtech said that they would apply for approval of emergency use of their vaccine on Friday, which also helped risk sentiment improve and support the British Pound. Following Pfizer, Moderna also said that its vaccine was 94.5% effective in preventing the coronavirus and helped raise the market’s optimism that also supported the GBP/USD pair’s upward trend.

On the data front, at 05:01 GMT, GfK Consumer Confidence remained flat with the forecasted -33. At 12:00 GMT, the Retail Sales from the U.K. for October raised to 1.2% against the expected -0.3% and supported British Pound that added further gains in GBP/USD pair. The Public Sector Net Borrowing declined to 21.6 against the forecasted 31.6B and kept British Pound and added improvements in the currency pair GBP/USD pair.

Meanwhile, in the U.S., the need for a stimulus package increased with the rising coronavirus cases, but Fed Chairman Jerome Powell refrained from giving any hint about further aid in the upcoming December meeting. The hospitalization in the U.S. for coronavirus patients increased to a worse level, forcing many state governors to announce restrictive measures to control the virus’s spread. It weighed on the U.S. dollar and helped GBP/USD pair to post gains on Friday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3211      1.3296

1.3161      1.3331

1.3127      1.3381

Pivot point: 1.3246

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD continues trading bullish at the 1.3307 level, holding over the 1.3303 support level, supporting the buying trend. The recent bullish engulfing candle on the 2-hour timeframe can lead Sterling further higher until the 1.3368 area. The MACD and RSI have crossed over on the higher side, suggesting further odds of bullish trend continuation. Typically such kind of ascending trend breakout can lead the pair further higher, so let’s consider taking buying trade over the 1.3307 level today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair closed at 103.823 after placing a high of 103.909 and a low of 103.700. After falling for six consecutive days, the USD/JPY pair posted small gains on Friday amid the reports about the resumption of the U.S. fiscal aid talks. The small uptick in the USD/JPY pair after massive selling in the previous six days could be solely attributed to optimism led by reports that U.S. lawmakers have agreed to resume talks on another coronavirus stimulus package.

The positive sentiment was somehow offset by the U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s decision to end some pandemic relief for struggling businesses. This came in after the tensions increased about the potential economic fallout from the continuous rise in new coronavirus cases, which held the U.S. dollar bulls from placing aggressive bets.

Meanwhile, the safe-haven appeal came back in the market after the number of coronavirus cases started to increase in the U.S. On Thursday, the U.S. reported about 185,000 cases of coronavirus in a single day and set a record. The number of hospitalized patients in the U.S. also increased by almost 50% in just the last two weeks that eventually urged many states to impose new restrictions to stop the virus from spreading further.

Meanwhile, the Governor of California imposed a 10 PM curfew in most populated U.S. states that will take effect from Saturday. Moreover, the Centre for Disease Control advised Americans not to travel on Thanksgiving holiday as it would increase the infection rate. These concerns added uncertainty in the market and raised a safe-haven appeal that supported the safe-haven Japanese Yen and capped the USD/JPY pair’s gains on Friday.

There was no macroeconomic data from the U.S. on Friday, and from Japan, at 04:30 GMT, the National Core CPI for the year from Japan remained flat with the anticipations of -0.7%. The macroeconomic data failed to impact on currency pair USD/JPY.

Pfizer and BioNtech announced on Friday that they would apply on the day to the US FDA for approval of emergency use of their vaccine on the vaccine front. This, combined with the other companies, included AstraZeneca and Oxford University’s latest reports of their vaccine’s efficacy, added strength in the risk sentiment, and supported the USD/JPY pair’s gains on Friday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

103.56      104.07

103.38      104.40

103.04      104.58

Pivot point: 103.89

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY extends its bearish trend below the 104.102 level, consolidating within a narrow trading range 104.102 – 103.650. On the lower side, the USD/JPY pair is likely to find support at the 103.650 level, and violation of this level can also extend further selling bias until 103.227. On the higher side, the USD/JPY safe-haven pair may find resistance at 104.400 and may help us capture a selling trades below this level as the MACD and RSI support the selling trend today. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

Descending Triangle Pattern in the USD/CHF – Is It Going to Break Lower?

During Monday’s Asian trading hours, the USD/JPY currency pair failed to stop its overnight bearish moves and caught further offers below the 0.9100 level. However, the reason for the bearish tone around the currency pair could be associated with the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, triggered by the risk-on market mood, which tends to weaken the safe-haven U.S. dollar. Hence, optimism was supported by optimism over a potential vaccine/treatment for the highly infectious coronavirus. In that way, the positive tone around the equity market also weakened the safe-haven Swiss franc and became the factor that cap further downside momentum for the USD/CHF currency pair. Currently, the USD/CHF currency pair is currently trading at 0.9099 and consolidating in the range between 0.9095 – 0.9117.

During Monday’s Asian trading hours, the USD/JPY currency pair failed to stop its overnight bearish moves and caught further offers below the 0.9100 level. However, the reason for the bearish tone around the currency pair could be associated with the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, triggered by the risk-on market mood, which tends to weaken the safe-haven U.S. dollar. Hence, optimism was supported by optimism over a potential vaccine/treatment for the highly infectious coronavirus. In that way, the positive tone around the equity market also weakened the safe-haven Swiss franc and became the factor that cap further downside momentum for the USD/CHF currency pair. Currently, the USD/CHF currency pair is currently trading at 0.9099 and consolidating in the range between 0.9095 – 0.9117.

During Monday’s Asian trading hours, the USD/JPY currency pair failed to stop its overnight bearish moves and caught further offers below the 0.9100 level. However, the reason for the bearish tone around the currency pair could be associated with the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, triggered by the risk-on market mood, which tends to weaken the safe-haven U.S. dollar. Hence, optimism was supported by optimism over a potential vaccine/treatment for the highly infectious coronavirus. In that way, the positive tone around the equity market also weakened the safe-haven Swiss franc and became the factor that cap further downside momentum for the USD/CHF currency pair. Currently, the USD/CHF currency pair is currently trading at 0.9099 and consolidating in the range between 0.9095 – 0.9117.

While discussing the positive side of the story, the renewed optimism over a possible vaccine for the highly infectious coronavirus disease boosted the market risk tone. However, the hopes of the vaccine were boosted after Gilead Sciences received US FDA approval for its antiviral therapy to treat the highly contagious coronavirus disease. Elsewhere, the reasons for the risk-on market trading sentiment could also be attributed to rising expectations of further U.S. stimulus package. These hopes were fueled by the positive remarks of President Donald Trump and House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi, which eventually raised hopes for the measures to be passed before the election. 

Despite the worries over the coronavirus pandemic’s resurgence, the renewed optimism over a possible vaccine for the highly infectious coronavirus disease boosted the market risk tone. These hopes were boosted after reports suggesting that the vaccinations against coronavirus disease in America may start in 3-weeks, as the FDA will approve drugmaker Pfizer and German partner BioNTech’s experimental candidate in mid-December. Simultaneously, the U.K. is expected to give a green signal to Pfizer’s vaccine this week. This, in turn, boosted hopes for a global economic recovery in 2021. Thus, the risk-on market mood tends to undermine the safe-haven Swiss franc, which becomes the key factor that lends some support to the currency pair to ease the intraday bearish pressure surrounding the USD/CHF currency pair.

As a result of the upbeat market sentiment, the broad-based U.S. dollar failed to gain any bullish traction and edged lower on the day as doubts persist over the global economic recovery from COVID-19. Besides this, the risk-on market sentiment, backed by the optimism over a potential vaccine for the highly contagious coronavirus disease, also played its major role in undermining the safe-haven U.S. dollar. However, the losses in the U.S. dollar becomes the key factor that kept the currency pair lower. Meantime, the U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a bucket of other currencies, was down at 92.707.

Across the ocean, the optimism around the equity market was rather unaffected by the intensifying market worries regarding the continuous surge in new coronavirus cases in Europe and the United States, which keep fueling the doubts over the global economic recovery through imposing new lockdown restrictions on economic and social activity. Apart from this, the long-lasting inability to pass the U.S. fiscal package and the jitters over the Sino-US also capped upside momentum for the trading sentiment.

Looking ahead, the market traders will keep their eyes on U.S. Markit Manufacturing PMIs, which are scheduled to release later in the day. All in all, the updates surrounding the Brexit, virus, and U.S. stimulus package will not lose their importance. 

Daily Support and Resistance

S1 0.9045

S2 0.9077

S3 0.9094

Pivot Point 0.9109

R1 0.9125

R2 0.9141

R3 0.9172

The USD/CHF is trading over 0.9093 level, testing the support level of 0.9093 for the fourth time now. Typically the descending triangle pattern breaks on the lower side, and that’s what we are expecting today. If this happens, we may see USD/CHF pair falling towards the 0.9033 area. Checkout a trade plan below…

Entry Price – Sell 0.90995

Stop Loss – 0.91395

Take Profit – 0.90595

Risk to Reward – 1:1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

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Categories
Forex Elliott Wave Forex Market Analysis

GBPJPY Consolidates in the Bearish Sentiment Zone

The GBPJPY cross continues moving by its seventh session in a row in a sideways channel turning in the neutral zone. However, since the last Thursday trading session, the price is consolidating in the bearish sentiment zone.

The GBPJPY cross continues moving by its seventh session in a row in a sideways channel turning in the neutral zone. However, since the last Thursday trading session, the price is consolidating in the bearish sentiment zone.

The GBPJPY cross continues moving by its seventh session in a row in a sideways channel turning in the neutral zone. However, since the last Thursday trading session, the price is consolidating in the bearish sentiment zone.

Technical Overview

 

The following 8-hour chart illustrates the 90-day high and low range, which exposes the market participants’ sentiment. The figure shows the price action moving around the pivot level at 137.877. Nevertheless, the close below the pivot level pulled the price toward the bearish sentiment zone.

Additionally, the strong bearish rejection in the price action decreasing from the extreme bullish sentiment zone of 140.296 toward the pivot level leads to suspect that the intraday upward movement developed on November 09th couldn’t be as strong as it seemed.

On the other hand, both the positive EMA(60) to Price Index and the 200-period moving average moving below the price, leads to the conclusion that the mid-term sentiment remains on the bullish side. In this regard, the short-term sideways channel’s breakdown could confirm the turning bias from bullish to bearish.

Short-term Technical Outlook

The GBPJPY cross short-term view and under the Elliott Wave perspective reveals the sideways progress in an incomplete corrective sequence that corresponds to wave B of Minor degree labeled in green.

The next 4-hour chart illustrates the advance in a broadening structural series that could correspond to a possible double-three pattern that ended once the price topped at 140.315 on November 11th.

If this scenario is correct, then the pair’s action should be advancing in wave C of Minor degree labeled in green. In this context, the GBPJPY cross should confirm the end of its internal corrective wave corresponding to wave (ii) of Minuette degree identified in blue. In this scenario, the bearish pressure could drag the price toward the end of wave A zone located between levels 133.70 and 133.

The alternative count considers the possibility that wave B of Minor degree remains incomplete and the internal structural series corresponds to a triple-three pattern. In consequence, the current downward move would correspond to the second wave ((x)) of Minute degree. If this scenario is valid, the wave (c) of Minuette degree in blue should have a limited decline, likely until the previous lows located between 135 and 134.

Finally, the invalidation level for both short-term scenarios locates at 140.315, which corresponds to the end of wave ((y)) in black.

Categories
Forex Signals

EUR/USD Triple Top Pattern Pushing the Pair Lower!


The EUR/USD is trading with a bearish bias at the 1.1844 level, having violated an upward trendline on the hourly chart. On the lower side, the support stays at 1.1832, and below this, the EUR/USD may find next support at 1.1814. On the higher side, the resistance can be found at the 1.1867 level. The bullish bias remains dominants today as the MACD and 50 periods EMA support a bullish trend. We are already holding a buying trade from yesterday; therefore, you are advised to follow our forex signals page for more updates on the EUR/USD pair.