Category: Forex Market Analysis

This section focuses on publications and analytical reports related to financial markets on a daily basis.

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Multiple asset-classes coverage
Neutral assessment of market conditions
Entry setups with relevant underlying price levels

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 18 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – German IFO Business Climate in Focus! 

On Friday, the fundamental side-eyes will remain on the German Ifo Business Climate figures, which are expected to drop from 90.7 to 90.2 along with the current account data, which is likely to drop from 25.2 B to 22.6B. Both of these figures extend bearish pressure on the Euro. Later, the Canadian retail sales will be in focus as it may drive some price action in the Canadian pairs.

On Friday, the fundamental side-eyes will remain on the German Ifo Business Climate figures, which are expected to drop from 90.7 to 90.2 along with the current account data, which is likely to drop from 25.2 B to 22.6B. Both of these figures extend bearish pressure on the Euro. Later, the Canadian retail sales will be in focus as it may drive some price action in the Canadian pairs.

On Friday, the fundamental side-eyes will remain on the German Ifo Business Climate figures, which are expected to drop from 90.7 to 90.2 along with the current account data, which is likely to drop from 25.2 B to 22.6B. Both of these figures extend bearish pressure on the Euro. Later, the Canadian retail sales will be in focus as it may drive some price action in the Canadian pairs.


 

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.22679 after placing a high of 1.22725 and a low of 1.21897. EUR/USD pair extended its gains on Thursday and peaked in April 2018, amid the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness and the rebound of the Eurozone economy. The U.S. dollar weakness was derived from various factors, including rising hopes that the coronavirus relief bill will release soon, the dovish comments from Powell post-meeting, and the soft U.S. labor market data on Thursday. 

The Democrats and Republicans were close to reaching a deal over a new $900 billion proposal, including $600-$700 in paychecks and unemployment benefits. The U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has even said that it might be possible that U.S. lawmakers will have the agreement in writing by the end of Thursday. These rising hopes for the U.S. stimulus bill added pressure on the U.S. dollar that ultimately supported the EUR/USD pair’s upward movement.

Powell emphasized that the Fed was following outcomes-based policies, which means if progress slows toward achieving those outcomes, then-Fed could step up its asset purchases. Powell’s dovish comments weighed on the U.S. dollar and supported rising EUR/USD prices on Thursday. Furthermore, on Thursday, the soft labor market data weighed on the U.S. dollar as the Unemployment Claims from last week surged to 885K. The weak U.S. dollar because of rising unemployment claims also supported the upward momentum in EUR/USD pair on Thursday.

On the data front, at 15:00 GMT, the Final CPI for the year in November remained flat at -0.3%. The Final Core CPI from Eurozone in November also remained as expected at 0.2%. From the U.S. side, at 18:29 GMT, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index in December declined to 11.1 against the projected 20.1 and weighed on the U.S. dollar and supported EUR/USD prices. At 18:30 GMT, the Unemployment Claims from last week surged to 885K against the projected 817K and weighed on the U.S. dollar. For November, the Building Permits surged to 1.64M against the projected 1.55M and supported the U.S. dollar. The Housing Starts in November remained flat as projected 1.55M.

The Eurozone economy was rebounded as suggested by the December Eurozone’s Composite PMI that rose above 49 levels compared to expected 45.3 and supported the single currency. However, the Eurozone market confidence was tempered by the news that Germany, the largest Eurozone economy, would re-enter lockdown in January to curb coronavirus spread.

Meanwhile, the global economic outlook continued to improve following the news that Europe will be rolling out coronavirus vaccines. The E.U. Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen said that the coronavirus vaccination would start from December 27 in Austria, Germany, and Italy. The Health Minister Jens Spahn said that if the approval comes as planned, Germany will start vaccination on December 27. The potential vaccine rollout in Europe raised the Eurozone economy’s outlook and supported the single currency Euro and added the EUR/USD pair’s gains.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.2143      1.2231

1.2090      1.2266

1.2055      1.2320

Pivot point: 1.2178

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD bullish bias continues to drive an upward movement at 1.2245, and continuing an upward trend is likely to be continued. On the 4 hour timeframe, the EURUSD has entered the overbought zone, and it has completed 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at the 1.2240 level. A bearish breakout of 1.2240 can send the EUR/USD pair towards a 38.2% Fibo level of 1.2214. The odds of buying seems strong over the 1.2214 level today.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

 The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.35833 after placing a high of 1.36244 and a low of 1.34950. GBP/USD pair extended its gains for the third consecutive day on Thursday and peaked since May 2018 due to broad-based U.S. dollar weakness. The British Pound pared some gains on Thursday after the U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that it was likely that a deal would not be reached until the European Union eased its stance over key sticking issues, including fishing rights.

Johnson poured cold water on the deal’s hopes, saying that it looked very likely that the agreement will not be finalized until the European Union shifts its position substantially. This update came in the right after the positive comments from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who said that the progress in trade negotiations was seen.


Despite the hints of possible progress on a post-Brexit trade deal, PM Johnson has not shied away from his views that the possible outcome for the U.K. to leave the E.U. was without a deal. In this scenario, the U.K. and E.U. will follow the terms and conditions under the World Trade Organization that would not be good for both nations. The European Parliament has given Brexit negotiators until December 20 to strike a deal to allow enough time to ratify a potential agreement before the end of the U.K.’s transition period to leave the E.U.

Furthermore, on Thursday, the Bank of England kept interest rates at the lowest level on record after warning that rapid growth in coronavirus infections will deliver a bigger hit to the U.K. economy than expected in the final months of 2020. The official interest rate was kept unchanged at 0.1% by BoE, while the bank also left the Q.E. bond-buying program unchanged at 895 billion pounds after pumping an additional 150 billion pounds into the economy last month.

The bank acknowledged that against a backdrop of soaring coronavirus infections amid the second wave of the pandemic has forced the government to launch tier-3 restrictions in England and tighter control over Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland that has put the economy under pressure. The bank projected that the GDP of the U.K. in the final three months of 2020 would contract by a little over 1%, which means that national output for 2020 will be 11% below 2019, and it will be the biggest recession in 300 years. These dovish comments from the Bank of England removed some of the GBP/USD pair’s daily gain on Thursday.

On the data front, at 17:00 GMT, the Asset Purchase Facility from Great Britain in December remained flat at 895B. 

From the U.S. side, at 18:29 GMT, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index in December fell to 11.1 against the anticipated 20.1 and weighed on the U.S. dollar and supported the GBP/USD pair. At 18:30 GMT, the Unemployment Claims from last week rose to 885K against the anticipated 817K and weighed on the U.S. dollar, and added further gains in GBP/USD pair. For November, the Building Permits rose to 1.64M against the anticipated 1.55M and supported the U.S. dollar. The Housing Starts in November remained flat as anticipated 1.55M.  The U.S. dollar was weak across the board as the hopes for the second round of stimulus bills raised as the Democrats and Republicans were coming closer to reach a $900 billion proposal that would include $600 to $700 paychecks and unemployment benefits. The rising hopes that U.S. stimulus will reach an agreement soon weighed on the U.S. dollar and added in the gains of GBP/USD.

The U.S. dollar was also weak because of the rising number of coronavirus cases in the U.S. despite the vaccine rollout. According to Johns Hopkins University, the U.S. confirmed 247,403 new coronavirus cases on Wednesday, and the number of Americans’ deaths was recorded as 3656 in a single day. Meanwhile, the risk perceived the latest improvement in risk sentiment also supported British Pound after the hopes of another vaccine approval rose. A vaccine by Moderna that will offer about 94% protection against the coronavirus was set to get emergency authorization as early as this week by US FDA. On Thursday, a panel of 22 members of experts met to discuss the efficacy and potential side effects of Moderna’s vaccine. However, the American public will start receiving vaccine shots possibly after months, and in the meantime, the hospitals across the country will be caring for the coronavirus patients. These rising optimism raised the hopes that global economic recovery will reach soon and supported the risk sentiment that added strength in Sterling and helped GBP/USD pair to continue its upward movement.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3442      1.3562

1.3378      1.3618 

1.3322      1.3683

Pivot point: 1.3498

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading at 1.3550 level, facing an immediate support level of 1.3518 level. This support level is extended by an upward trendline, which can be seen in the 4-hour timeframe. On the higher side, the pair can extend the buying trend until the 1.3588 level, and the continuation of the buying trend can also lead Sterling towards the 1.3625 level. Support holds around the 1.3518 level, and a breakout can lead the pair towards the 1.3495 area. Bullish bias dominates today.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 103.074 after placing a high of 103.560 and a low of 102.872. The currency pair USD/JPY fell for the third consecutive day on Thursday amid the U.S. dollar’s broad-based weakness. The U.S. dollar fell significantly against the Japanese Yen, and the USD/JPY pair reached 102 level on Thursday as the U.S. dollar index fell below 90 levels for the first time since April 2018. The U.S. Dollar Index that measures the value of the U.S. dollar against the basket of six currencies fell to 89.7 level on Thursday and dragged the USD/JPY pair further on the downside towards its lowest since March.

On Thursday, the Wall Street main indexes rose modestly, with Dow Jones up by 0.39% and the NASDAQ by 0.42%. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen performed well against its rivals across the board despite the risk appetite and kept the USD/JPY pair under pressure. The hopes for the second round of U.S. stimulus bill from Congress rose and weighed on the U.S. dollar as the Democrats and Republicans reached a consensus over the proposal of $900 billion stimulus aid that will include $600-$700 in the paychecks and unemployment benefits. Furthermore, the rising number of coronavirus cases in the U.S. were also weighing on the local currency as the cases in total reached about 17M in the U.S. Despite the vaccine rollout in the U.S., the rising number of coronavirus causes added pressure on the U.S. dollar and added further downside on the USD/JPY pair.

The USD/JPY pair’s downward momentum was the disappointing U.S. jobless claims on Thursday. On the data front, at 18:29 GMT, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index in December decreased to 11.1 against the estimated 20.1 and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added pressure over the USD/JPY pair. At 18:30 GMT, the Unemployment Claims from last week increased to 885K against the estimated 817K and weighed on the U.S. dollar and dragged the pair USD/JPY further on the downside. Building Permits for November increased to 1.64M against the estimated 1.55M and supported the U.S. dollar. The Housing Starts in November remained flat as estimated at 1.55M.

Since September, the rising number of unemployment claims to the highest level suggested the effect of increasingly restrictive measures in many states due to increased coronavirus cases and people’s loss of confidence. Meanwhile, in Japan, the main upcoming event was the central bank meeting on Friday. The most likely scenario was a no change in the monetary policy setting and keeping the rates at -10bps and the 10-year JGB yield target at 0.00%. The emergency lending facilities are expected to extend beyond the current run-off date of March 31, 2021. There were no macroeconomic figures to be released from Japan on Thursday, so the pair USD/JPY kept following the U.S. dollar movements that were weak across the board on the day.


Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

103.47      104.02

103.25      104.37

102.91      104.58

Pivot point: 103.81

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY has reversed the selling bias to trade at the 103.550 level. The safe-haven currency pair is trading beneath an immediate support mark of 103.750, and the formation of candles beneath this level will reinforce the bearish breakout. If this happens, we may have an opportunity to short the USD/JPY pair today. Bearish bias looks firm as the MACD is creating histograms underneath 0, and the 50 periods EMA is operating around 103.800 level, suggesting strong probabilities of selling. On the lower side, the USD/JPY pair may find subsequent support at the 102.900 level. It can be a good idea to take a selling position below 103.750 today. Good luck!

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave Forex Market Analysis

Will 1.24 be the Next EURUSD Yearly High?

The EURUSD pair continues extending its gains after surpass its psychological resistance of $1.22 for the first time since late April 2018. The common currency gained over 9.20% (YTD), encouraged by the US Dollar weakness.

The EURUSD pair continues extending its gains after surpass its psychological resistance of $1.22 for the first time since late April 2018. The common currency gained over 9.20% (YTD), encouraged by the US Dollar weakness.

The EURUSD pair continues extending its gains after surpass its psychological resistance of $1.22 for the first time since late April 2018. The common currency gained over 9.20% (YTD), encouraged by the US Dollar weakness.

Technical Overview

The following daily chart illustrates the long-term market participants’ sentiment unfolded within the 52-week high and low range. The figure shows the progression starting from 1.06359, which corresponds to the lowest level of the year. 

The long-term primary trend identified with the trend-line in blue reveals that bull traders remain the market control since last March 23rd when the price found and confirmed the bottom at 1.06359 after the massive sell-off occurred last mid-February. Moreover, both the secondary trend (green trend-line) and the minor trend (black trend-line) show the bullish acceleration that carries the cross from November 04th when the EURUSD found fresh buyers expecting further upsides. 

On the other hand, although the trend looks mostly bullish, the EMA(60) to close index is moving in its overbought zone; thus, we should be prepared fr the upward movement in progress to end soon. Under this context, the main bias for bulls should change from buy to hold. Also, Bearish traders should expect confirmation signals such as a significative breakdown before placing their short positions.

Technical Overview

The mid-term Elliott wave view of the EURUSD pair exposed in the next 12-hour timeframe chart reveals the price action is reaching its second target level of $1.22575 proposed in our previous analysis. Also, the chart illustrates its progress in an incomplete wave 5 of Minor degree labeled in green.

The lesser degree structure observed in the fifth wave in green shows the progression of the wave ((iii)) of Minute degree labeled in black, which simultaneously appears advancing in its internal fifth wave of Minuette degree identified in blue. The Elliott Wave textbook suggests that, currently, the common currency moves in an extended wave. In this context, once the pair completes its rally, it should start to consolidate in its wave ((iv)) in black. This corrective formation could find support in the demand zone between 1.21061 and 1.20586, which could bring the possibility to join the long-term bullish trend. The potential target for wave 5 in green is $1.2405.

In summary, the EURUSD pair moves in its third wave of Minute degree, which should complete its rally in the coming trading sessions. The next path corresponding to wave ((iv)) in black could drag the price until the demand zone between 1.21061 and 1.20586, where the common currency could start a new rally with a potential target at 1.2405. Finally, the invalidation level of the bullish scenario is $1.19201.

Categories
Forex Signals

Gold Trades Dramatically Bullish Over Risk-off Sentiment – Quick Intraday Outlook! 

The yellow metal gold price continued to extend their previous day’s bullish bias and took some modest offers around the $1,888.93 level—the bullion prices battle Wednesday’s high despite a U-turn from $1,844 post-Fed. However, the modest downtrend in the yellow-metal prices was mainly tied to the optimism surrounding U.S. coronavirus (COVID-19) stimulus and the upbeat Brexit headlines, which kept the market trading sentiment positive and undermined the safe-haven metal prices. 

The yellow metal gold price continued to extend their previous day’s bullish bias and took some modest offers around the $1,888.93 level—the bullion prices battle Wednesday’s high despite a U-turn from $1,844 post-Fed. However, the modest downtrend in the yellow-metal prices was mainly tied to the optimism surrounding U.S. coronavirus (COVID-19) stimulus and the upbeat Brexit headlines, which kept the market trading sentiment positive and undermined the safe-haven metal prices. 

The yellow metal gold price continued to extend their previous day’s bullish bias and took some modest offers around the $1,888.93 level—the bullion prices battle Wednesday’s high despite a U-turn from $1,844 post-Fed. However, the modest downtrend in the yellow-metal prices was mainly tied to the optimism surrounding U.S. coronavirus (COVID-19) stimulus and the upbeat Brexit headlines, which kept the market trading sentiment positive and undermined the safe-haven metal prices. 

Furthermore, the upbeat trading sentiment could also be associated with the optimism over a potential vaccine/treatment for the highly infectious coronavirus, which adds further burden around the safe-haven metal. Conversely, the long-lasting coronavirus (COVID-19) woes and the tussle between US-China keep questioning the market risk-on mood, which might give some support to the bullion prices to limit its deeper losses. Elsewhere, the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness could also be considered as one of the key factors that help the bullion prices to limit its deeper losses. The yellow metal prices are currently trading at the 1,888 level and still heading upward. 

Despite the widespread doubts over the global economic recovery from coronavirus (COVID-19), the market trading sentiment remained supportive by optimism over the rollout of vaccines for the highly infectious coronavirus disease. In addition to this, the growing hopes for additional U.S. fiscal stimulus measures also exerted a positive impact on the market trading sentiment, which undermined demand for the safest assets such as the U.S. dollar.

Across the pond, the reason for the risk-on market sentiment could also be attributed to the fresh reports suggesting that the U.S. Congress inched closer to the covid stimulus. It is worth mentioning that the Republicans and Democrats in Congress were reportedly “closing in on” approving a $900 billion stimulus bill on Wednesday, the most positive sign seen in months. Moreover, they are also working to pass a $1.4 trillion spending bill for the fiscal year starting on Oct. 1. by Friday to prevent a government shutdown.

At the USD front, the broad-based U.S. dollar failed to stop its previous day bearish bias. It drew further offers on the day as Fed Chair Jerome Powell passed cautious statements, indicating disinflation pressure while expecting the economy to strengthen in the second half of 2021. Apart from this, the Federal Reserve policymakers conveyed their dovish outlook for the long-term while showing a willingness to supporting the economy until they see “further progress” in employment and inflation. Meanwhile, the risk-on market sentiment also weighed on the U.S. currency. However, the U.S. dollar losses helped the gold prices to deeper its losses as the price of gold is inversely related to the price of the U.S. dollar. The U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies dropped by 0.04% to 90.102 by 9:12 PM ET (2:12 AM GMT).

In contrast to this, the escalating market concerns regarding the continuous rise in new coronavirus cases in the U.S. and Europe keep fueling the doubts over the global economic recovery through imposing new lockdown restrictions on economic and social activity, which keep probing the upbeat market performance and lend some support to the safe-haven yellow metal. Apart from this, the fears of a full-fledged trade/political war between the U.S. and China also challenging the market risk-on mood, which also might help the yellow-metal prices to limit their losses.


Daily Support and Resistance

S1 1827.65

S2 1840.68

S3 1848.13

Pivot Point 1861.27

R1 1868.61

R2 1889.09

R3 1909.10

On the technical side, the precious metal has entered the overbought zone as it’s hitting the resistance level of 1,893 level. Closing of candle below this level is suggesting chances of a selling correction in gold; therefore, we can expect gold to drop until 1,875 level. The MACD and RSI are suggesting strong buying trend in gold, and we should look for buying trades actually, but the metal is overbought, and it should come down a bit before giving us further buying trades. Let’s consider taking buy over 1,880 level today and selling below 1,893 level. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

EUR/USD Violates Ascending Triangle Pattern – Bullish Signal In Play! 

The EUR/USD bullish bias continues to dominate the market as it’s trading at 1.2225. On the higher side, the EUR/USD may target the 1.2250 level and 1.2282 resistance areas. The direct currency pair may find support at 1.2175, which is extended by a double top resistance, which now is working as a support. The MACD and RSI are supporting bullish bias along with the 50 periods EMA. We can expect a continuation of a bullish trend in the EUR/USD today.

The EUR/USD bullish bias continues to dominate the market as it’s trading at 1.2225. On the higher side, the EUR/USD may target the 1.2250 level and 1.2282 resistance areas. The direct currency pair may find support at 1.2175, which is extended by a double top resistance, which now is working as a support. The MACD and RSI are supporting bullish bias along with the 50 periods EMA. We can expect a continuation of a bullish trend in the EUR/USD today.

The EUR/USD bullish bias continues to dominate the market as it’s trading at 1.2225. On the higher side, the EUR/USD may target the 1.2250 level and 1.2282 resistance areas. The direct currency pair may find support at 1.2175, which is extended by a double top resistance, which now is working as a support. The MACD and RSI are supporting bullish bias along with the 50 periods EMA. We can expect a continuation of a bullish trend in the EUR/USD today.


Entry Price – Buy 1.22338

Stop Loss – 1.21938

Take Profit – 1.22738

Risk to Reward – 1:1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

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Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 17 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – BOE Policy In Limelight! 

On the news front, the eyes will remain on the U.K. Monetary Policy reports due during the late European hours. BOE isn’t expected to change the rates, and it may keep them at 0.10%. However, it will be essential to see MPC Official Bank Rate Votes. Besides, the European Final CPI data will remain in focus today. During the U.S. session, the Unemployment Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index will be the main highlight to drive further market movement.

On the news front, the eyes will remain on the U.K. Monetary Policy reports due during the late European hours. BOE isn’t expected to change the rates, and it may keep them at 0.10%. However, it will be essential to see MPC Official Bank Rate Votes. Besides, the European Final CPI data will remain in focus today. During the U.S. session, the Unemployment Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index will be the main highlight to drive further market movement.

On the news front, the eyes will remain on the U.K. Monetary Policy reports due during the late European hours. BOE isn’t expected to change the rates, and it may keep them at 0.10%. However, it will be essential to see MPC Official Bank Rate Votes. Besides, the European Final CPI data will remain in focus today. During the U.S. session, the Unemployment Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index will be the main highlight to drive further market movement.

 

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.21988 after placing a high of 1.22121 and a low of 1.21450. EUR/USD pair extended its gains and rose for 3rd consecutive day on Wednesday to reach its highest since April 2018.

EUR/USD pair broke above 1.22 level mainly because of the strong PMIs on Wednesday and the U.S. dollar weakness. On the data front, at 13:15 GMT, the French Flash Services PMI for December raised to 49.2 against the expected 39.9 and supported Euro. The French Flash Manufacturing PMI in December also raised to 51.1 against the estimated 50.0 and supported Euro. 

At 13:30 GMT, the German Flash Manufacturing PMI in December surged to 58.6 against the forecasted 56.4 and supported Euro. The German Flash Services PMI also advanced to 47.7 against the expected 44.1 and supported Euro. At 14:00 GMT, the Flash manufacturing PMI from Eurozone raised to 55.5 against the forecasted 53.0 and supported Euro. The Flash Services PMI in December from the whole bloc also raised to 47.3 from the expected 41.9 and supported Euro. At 15:00 GMT, the Trade Balance from Eurozone for October came in greater than expected 22.1B as 25,9B and supported Euro.

The manufacturing and services sector in Eurozone advanced and showed growth in December that supported the single currency Euro and added in the daily gains of the EUR/USD pair. From the U.S. side, at 18:30 GMT, the Core Retail Sales for November declined to -0.9% against the projected 0.1% and weighed on the U.S. dollar and supported EUR/USD gains. For November, the Retail Sales also declined to -1.1% against the projected -0.3% and weighed on the U.S. dollar and added in the EUR/USD pair. AT 19:45 GMT, the Flash manufacturing PMI for December rose to56.5 against the projected 55.9 and supported the U.S. dollar, and capped further gains in EUR/USD pair. 

The Flash Services PMI for December declined to 55.3 against the projected 55.7 and weighed on the U.S. dollar and supported momentum upward in EUR/USD pair. At 20:00 GMT, the Business Inventories for October rose to 0.7% against the projected 0.6%and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The NAHB Housing Market Index also declined to 86 against the projected 88 and weighed on the U.S. dollar, and added additional EUR/USD pair gains.

Apart from strong PMI figures, the latest news that Moderna’s vaccine was also up to getting emergency use authorization from the US FDA by the end of this week. This vaccine will be the second vaccine after Pfizer’s drug was approved last week and is currently being used on people. This news added in the risk sentiment and supported the risk perceived EUR/USD pair.

Furthermore, the Brexit hopes also raised on Wednesday and supported the single currency Euro after E.U.’s chief negotiator explained that she could not say if there will be a trade deal with Britain, but there had been progressing. The next few days would be critical. These developments also added to the upward trend of the EUR/USD pair on Wednesday.

Moreover, the Federal Reserve concluded its two-day meeting on Wednesday and decided to keep its interest rates at the same level until the inflation reaches its target. However, it decided to extend its Q.E. program that weighed on the U.S. dollar and supported the EUR/USD pair’s upward trend.


Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.2126      1.2175

1.2077      1.2197

1.2099      1.2224

Pivot point: 1.2148

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD bullish bias continues to dominate the market as it’s trading at 1.2225. On the higher side, the EUR/USD may target the 1.2250 level and 1.2282 resistance areas. The direct currency pair may find support at 1.2175, which is extended by a double top resistance, which now is working as a support. The MACD and RSI are supporting bullish bias along with the 50 periods EMA. We can expect a continuation of a bullish trend in the EUR/USD today.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

 The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.35083 after placing a high of 1.35543 and a low of 1.34340. GBP/USD pair extended its gains on Wednesday and rose to its highest level since May 2018. The British Pound pared gains on Wednesday against the U.S. dollar as reports suggested that U.K. and E.U. were close to a breakthrough on a key sticking point amid the ongoing talks. The President of European Commission Ursula von der Leyen said that there was a narrow path to an agreement on a post-Brexit trade deal with the U.K.

The U.K. acknowledged that some progress had been made but continued to suggest a no-deal was most likely outcome as significant differences remain. Reports suggested that progress has been made over the level playing rules, but differences remain over the fisheries issue, as fishing quotas remain a challenge in negotiations.

However, the U.K. has softened its tone on fisheries in a bid to get a deal over the line. Britain ditched the demands for fishing vessels operating under the U.K. flag to be majority British-owned in the post Brexit era. Whereas PM Boris Johnson remained harsh in his speech on Wednesday and said that the E.U. should realize that the U.K. has a right to take control over its land and waters like every other country.

The hopes for the Brexit trade deal increased as the recent progress on talks came as both sides were coming under increasing pressure to secure a deal before the transition period on December 31. These hopes kept the British Pound supported and GBP/USD pair higher.

On the data front, at 12:00 GMT, the Consumer Price Index from the U.K. for November fell short of expectations of 0.6% and came in as 0.3% that weighed on the British Pound. In November, the Core CPI also fell to 1.1% against the expectations of 1.4% and weighed on Sterling. The RPI of the year from the U.K. for November also declined to 0.9% against the forecasted 1.3% and weighed heavily on GBP. At 12:02 GMT, the PPI Input from the U.K. declined to 0.2% from the expected 0.4% in November and weighed on the British Pound. The PPI Output, however, remained flat with the expectations of 0.2%. At 14:30 GMT, the Flash manufacturing PMI in December from Great Britain raised to 57.3 against the projected 55.9 and supported British Pound and added GBP/USD pair gains. The Flash Services PMI, however, declined to 49.9 against the forecasted 50.5 in December and weighed on Sterling. The Housing Price Index for October advanced to 5.4% against the estimated 5.1% and supported British Pound. 

Most of the data came in against the British Pound; however, the currency pair GBP/USD remains on the upside over the latest Brexit optimism.

From the U.S. side, at 18:30 GMT, the Core Retail Sales for November fell to -0.9% against the anticipated 0.1% and weighed on the U.S. dollar and supported GBP/USD pair. The Retail Sales for November also fell to -1.1% against the anticipated -0.3% and weighed on the U.S. dollar and added gains in GBP/USD pair. 

At 19:45 GMT, the Flash manufacturing PMI for December surged to56.5 against the anticipated 55.9 and supported the U.S. dollar. The Flash Services PMI for December fell to 55.3 against the anticipated 55.7 and weighed on the U.S. dollar. At 20:00 GMT, the Business Inventories for October surged to 0.7% against the anticipated 0.6%and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The NAHB Housing Market Index also fell to 86 against the anticipated 88 and weighed on the U.S. dollar and added further gains in GBP/USD pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3338      1.3258

1.3213      1.3595

1.3147      1.3719

Pivot point: 1.3404

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

Since the Cable is also a direct currency pair and the dollar is getting weaker, we can expect a continuation of an upward trend in the GBP/USD pair. The GBP/USD pair may find resistance at 1.3600 and 1.3706 level, while the support level stays at 1.3470 marks. The MACD and EMA are supporting the bullish trend in the Cable. On the 4 hour timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has formed an upward channel, which may keep pushing the Sterling further higher today. The buying trend can be seen over 1.3470 level until 1.3600 and 1.3706 level.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 103.419 after placing a high of 103.915 and a low of 103.259. The USD/JPY pair extended its losses on Wednesday and reached its lowest since November 9. The USD/JPY pair dropped on Wednesday amid the U.S. dollar weakness due to rising stimulus hopes and growing vaccine optimism. The U.S. lawmakers made progress toward a coronavirus relief package that added weight on the U.S. dollar and dragged the USD/JPY pair on the downside. The U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies was down on Wednesday to 0.1% at 90.317. 

The bipartisan group had originally proposed a $908 billion stimulus bill, but it has now been split into two bills. The first bill includes a $748 billion proposal, including aid for vaccine distribution and unemployment benefits. This bill has gained traction and is expected to pass by Congress by the end of the week. The second bill that is worth $160 billion for local and state government support along with the temporary coronavirus liability protection that appears to be having more difficulty in gathering the necessary support from Congress.

On the data front, at 04:50 GMT, the Trade Balance from Japan for November surged to 0.57T against the forecasted 0.54T and supported the Japanese Yen that added further losses in the USD/JPY pair. At 05:30 GMT, the Flash Manufacturing PMI from Japan in December also raised to 49.7 against the forecasted 48.9 and supported the Japanese Yen that added additional losses in USD/JPY pair.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve kept its interest rates unchanged on Wednesday and said that they would remain the same until the inflation reaches 2-3%. However, Federal Reserve also announces to purchase at least $120 Billion of U.S. treasuries and mortgage-backed securities each month until employment gets better. This way to support the U.S. economy by increasing bond purchases also weighed on the U.S. dollar and dragged the USD/JPY pair on the downside.

From the U.S. side, at 02:00 GMT, the TIC Long-Term Purchases dropped to 51.9B against the forecasted 75.5 B and weighed on the U.S. dollar, and supported the downside movement in the USD/JPY pair. At 18:30 GMT, the Core Retail Sales for November decreased to -0.9% against the estimated 0.1% and weighed on the U.S. dollar and weighed on the USD/JPY pair. The Retail Sales for November also decreased to -1.1% against the estimated -0.3% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. AT 19:45 GMT, the Flash manufacturing PMI for December advanced to56.5 against the estimated 55.9 and supported the U.S. dollar. 

The Flash Services PMI for December decreased to 55.3 against the estimated 55.7 and weighed on the U.S. dollar and dragged the USD/JPY pair on the downside. At 20:00 GMT, the Business Inventories for October advanced to 0.7% against the estimated 0.6%and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The NAHB Housing Market Index also decreased to 86 against the estimated 88 and weighed on the U.S. dollar and added further losses in the USD/JPY pair.

Another factor included in the losses of the USD/JPY pair was the increasing risk sentiment of the market from another coronavirus vaccine. Moderna has also applied for emergency use authorization of its vaccine from the U.S. regulatory FDA that is expected to approve within a week. Moderna will become the second company to get authorization from the U.S. regulator after Pfizer got approval last week and is currently being roll-out. This latest news added in the risk sentiment and weighed on the safe-haven Japanese Yen that ultimately weighed on the USD/JPY pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

103.47      104.02

103.25      104.37

102.91      104.58

Pivot point: 103.81

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY extends it’s selling trend as the pair trades at 103.250. The safe-haven currency pair is trading below an immediate support level of 103.250, and the closing of candles below this level will confirm the bearish breakout. If this happens, we may have an opportunity to short the USD/JPY pair today. Bearish bias seems solid as the MACD is forming histograms below 0, and the 50 periods EMA is holding around 103.860 level, suggesting strong odds of selling. On the lower side, the USD/JPY pair may find next support at the 102.900 level. Let’s consider taking a selling trade below 103.650 today. Good luck! 

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Forex Signals

USD/CAD Selling Bias Dominates – Sell Signal Update! 

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.27392 after placing a high of 1.27892 and a low of 1.26931. The currency pair USD/CAD raised on Wednesday despite the weakness of the US dollar and rising crude oil prices amid the dovish comments from Governor of Bank of Canada Tiff Macklem.

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.27392 after placing a high of 1.27892 and a low of 1.26931. The currency pair USD/CAD raised on Wednesday despite the weakness of the US dollar and rising crude oil prices amid the dovish comments from Governor of Bank of Canada Tiff Macklem.

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.27392 after placing a high of 1.27892 and a low of 1.26931. The currency pair USD/CAD raised on Wednesday despite the weakness of the US dollar and rising crude oil prices amid the dovish comments from Governor of Bank of Canada Tiff Macklem.

On Wednesday, the US dollar was weak across the board due to the rising hopes for a further stimulus package from Congress and the dovish comments from the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee in its meeting. The bipartisan proposed that originally worth $908 billion was divided into two bills of $748 billion and $160 billion, was closer to reach a deal and get pass by Congress by the end of this week and weighed on the US dollar.

On the other hand, the WTI crude oil prices raised above $47 per barrel on Wednesday amid the declining crude oil inventories in the US over the last week. The US crude oil inventories dropped last week to -3.1M against the forecasted -2.8M and supported the crude oil prices that gave strength to the Canadian dollar that ultimately weighed on the USD/CAD pair on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, on Wednesday, the Governor of Bank of Canada Tiff Macklem warned the nation’s economy that could temporarily shrink again amid the second wave of virus cases and lightened the positive mode of the market that was lifted by the vaccine news. In his last speech of the year on Tuesday, Macklem said that uncertainty persisted and new restrictions could trigger a small contraction at the start of 2021. Sometime later next year the normal activities could resume because of the rollout of vaccines.

On the data front, at 18:30 GMT, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November from Canada was increased to 0.1% from the forecasted 0.0% and supported the Canadian dollar. The Common CPI declined to 1.5% against the expected 1.6% and weighed on the Canadian dollar and added gains in the USD/CAD pair. The Median CPI, however, came in line with the expectations of 1.9%. The Trimmed CPI declined to 1.7% against the estimated 1.8%and weighed on the Canadian dollar and supported an upward trend in the USD/CAD pair. 

The Foreign Securities Purchases during October in Canada were declined to 6.92B against the forecasted 10.05B and weighed heavily on the Canadian dollar and supported the gains in the USD/CAD pair. The Wholesale Sales in October surged to 1.0% against the expected 0.7% and supported the Canadian dollar. At 18:32 GMT, the Core CPI from Canada for November came in as 0.2%. The poor macroeconomic data from Canada weighed on local currency and ultimately added strength to the USD/CAD pair.

From the US side, at 18:30 GMT, the Core Retail Sales for November dropped to -0.9% against the expected 0.1% and weighed on the US dollar. The Retail Sales for November also dropped to -1.1% against the expected -0.3% and weighed on the US dollar. At 19:45 GMT, the Flash manufacturing PMI for December increased to56.5 against the expected 55.9 and supported the US dollar and added gains in the USD/CAD pair.

 The Flash Services PMI for December dropped to 55.3 against the expected 55.7 and weighed on the US dollar. At 20:00 GMT, the Business Inventories for October increased to 0.7% against the expected 0.6%and weighed on the US dollar. The NAHB Housing Market Index also dropped to 86 against the expected 88 and weighed on the US dollar and capped further upside in the USD/CAD pair.



Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.2665 1.2752

1.2632 1.2806 

1.2578 1.2839

Pivot point: 1.2719

The technical side of the USD/CAD is trading at 1.2708 level, holding below an immediate resistance level of 1.2743 mark which is extended by a downward trendline. On the lower side, the next support holds around 1.2693 level and violation of this level can extend further selling until the next support area of 1.2650 level. The MACD and RSI are in support of selling while the 50 periods EMA is dispensing a strong selling bias in the Loonie. let’s consider taking a selling trade below 1.2743 level until 1.2695 level.

Entry Price – Sell 1.27107

Stop Loss – 1.27507

Take Profit – 1.26607

Risk to Reward – 1:1.25

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

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Forex Signals

Overbought Gold Retraces Back – Is It Worth Buying?

During Wednesday’s Asian trading session, the yellow metal prices extended their bullish overnight rally and remained well bids around above the $1,850 level. Let me remind you that the bullion prices surged more than $20 an ounce for their biggest one-day gain in a week. However, the bullish sentiment around the gold prices was being supported by the weaker U.S. dollar as the price of gold is inversely related to the price of the U.S. dollar. 

During Wednesday’s Asian trading session, the yellow metal prices extended their bullish overnight rally and remained well bids around above the $1,850 level. Let me remind you that the bullion prices surged more than $20 an ounce for their biggest one-day gain in a week. However, the bullish sentiment around the gold prices was being supported by the weaker U.S. dollar as the price of gold is inversely related to the price of the U.S. dollar. 

During Wednesday’s Asian trading session, the yellow metal prices extended their bullish overnight rally and remained well bids around above the $1,850 level. Let me remind you that the bullion prices surged more than $20 an ounce for their biggest one-day gain in a week. However, the bullish sentiment around the gold prices was being supported by the weaker U.S. dollar as the price of gold is inversely related to the price of the U.S. dollar. 

The losses in the U.S. dollar was mainly tied to the progress toward a massive U.S. government spending bill and COVID-19 relief measures, which undermined demand for the safest assets such as the U.S. dollar. In the meantime, the optimism over the potential vaccine for the highly contagious coronavirus disease is also favouring the market trading sentiment, which also weakening demand for the safe-haven assets. Across the ocean, the intensifying US-China tussle and on-going Brexit uncertainty keep challenging the market’s upbeat mood and provides an additional boost to the safe-haven metal prices. 

Apart from this, the growing market concerns about the continuous surge in new coronavirus cases and the imposition of new restrictions also favouring the yellow-metal bulls. At this time, the yellow metal prices are currently trading at 1,857.76 and consolidating in the range between 1,850.94 – 1,858.37.

Despite the intensified Sino-US tussle, Brexit uncertainty, and worries over the coronavirus (COVID-19) cases, the market trading sentiment keeps its previous-session positive performance and remained well-supportive by the combination of factors. However, the reason could be associated with the latest reports suggesting that the lawmakers stepped again to try and get Covid-19 relief through Congress after several failed attempts. 

As per the latest report, House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a Democrat, hosted Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Republican, as well as Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer and House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy, gathered to end the long-standing deadlock on the coronavirus relief package at the 7:30 p.m. E.T. (0030 GMT). Wherein, McConnell said that lawmakers would not leave the rooms without a fiscal stimulus deal, which could be attached to the government funding bill.

Apart from this, the reason for the gains in equity markets could be attributed to the optimism over the rollout of vaccines for the highly contagious disease. This, in turn, was seen as one of the key factors that exerted selling pressure on the yellow metal prices. It should be noted that the Moderna is set for getting approval by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Chatters that the FDA approved first fully at-home virus test also favoured the market trading sentiment.

At the USD front, the broad-based U.S. dollar dropped to near two 1/2-year lows as progress toward the massive U.S. government spending bill, and COVID-19 relief measures undermined demand for the safest assets. The U.S. dollar will likely face further losses as the fiscal stimulus has a more substantial trickle-down effect than monetary policy, which usually lifts inflation expectations. Conversely, if the lawmakers fail again to reach an agreement, investors could turn risk-averse, which will be seen as bullish for the USD currency. Moreover, the losses in the U.S. dollar could also be associated with lingering doubts over the U.S. economic recovery from COVID-19. However, the losses in the U.S. dollar kept the gold prices higher as the price of gold is inversely related to the price of the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a bucket of currencies, was last at 90.477, after falling as low as 90.419 on Monday.

In contrast to this, the fears of rising COVID-19 cases in the U.S., Europe, and some of the notable Asian nations continually fueling the fears of renewed lockdowns in several countries. In the meantime, the U.S. new travel restriction over the Chinese Communist Party members and their families and a ban on Xinjiang cotton imports keep challenging the market risk-on mood. The tension between Sino-US further escalated after MSCI showed readiness for delisting 10 Chinese companies from its global investable markets indexes. These negative factors keep challenging the market risk-on tone and become the key factor that helps the gold prices to stay bid.


Daily Support and Resistance

S1 1807.17

S2 1827.65

S3 1840.79

Pivot Point 1848.13

R1 1861.27

R2 1868.61

R3 1889.09

Gold prices traded bullish at 1,860 level, supported over 1,848. It’s the same level that worked as resistance in the past, and now it’s working as a support for gold. On the lower side, the precious metal gold is likely to bounce off over 1,848 level as the 50 EMA is also expected to extend support here. For now, the MACD histograms are smaller but staying in buying zone. Let’s consider taking buying position over 1,848 level today with a stop below 1,845 level. Good luck! 

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Forex Signals

AUD/USD Ascending Triangle Pattern – Brace for Buying! 

The AUD/USD pair was closed at 0.75571 after placing a high of 0.75712 and a low of 0.75070. The currency pair AUD/USD rose on Tuesday amid the broad-based US dollar weakness and the RBA meeting minutes from the December meeting.

The AUD/USD pair was closed at 0.75571 after placing a high of 0.75712 and a low of 0.75070. The currency pair AUD/USD rose on Tuesday amid the broad-based US dollar weakness and the RBA meeting minutes from the December meeting.

The AUD/USD pair was closed at 0.75571 after placing a high of 0.75712 and a low of 0.75070. The currency pair AUD/USD rose on Tuesday amid the broad-based US dollar weakness and the RBA meeting minutes from the December meeting.

The renewed selling pressure surrounding the greenback was helpful to AUD/USD pair for pushing it higher as the US Dollar Index (DXY) was down by 0.2% on the day towards the 90.51 level. The US dollar was weak across the board because of the renewed hopes for US stimulus measure and the rising number of coronavirus cases in the region.

Meanwhile, the rising risk sentiment of the market also helped the AUD/USD pair to gain traction in the market. The risk-sensitive Aussie gained strength after the US Food and Drug Administration reported that Moderna’s coronavirus vaccine would be approved for emergency use later this week. The rising Australian dollar helped the AUD/USD pair to post gains on Tuesday.

On the data front, from the US side, at 18:30 GMT, the Empire State Manufacturing Index for December dropped to 4.9 against the expected 6.3 and weighed on the US dollar that added gains in AUD/USD pair. The US Import Prices in November also declined to 0.1% against the expected 0.3% and weighed on the US dollar that ultimately added further gains in AUD/USD pair. At 19:15 GMT, the Capacity Utilization Rate from the US for November increased to 73.3% against the expected 73.1% and supported the US dollar. The Industrial Production in November also raised to 0.4% against the expected 0.3% and supported the US dollar. From the Australian side, the CB Leading Index for October came in as 0.8%.

Furthermore, the Reserve Bank of Australia released its minutes from the December meeting in which the Bank said that it was prepared to do more if needed, and its focus will be on the bond-buying program. RBA did not expect to raise interest rates for at least three years and until the inflation reaches the bank target of 2-3%.

Bank said that the recovery in the labour market was more advanced than expected, and substantial tightening in the labour market was needed to lift wage growth and inflation. Bank acknowledged that China’s restrictions on Australian imports had some effect, but the demand for iron-ore was still firm. Last, the Bank suggested that the delivery of vaccines in the US and Europe would reduce downside risks for global growth. These positive statements from the Reserve Bank of Australia lifted the AUD/USD pair on Tuesday.

However, the gains in AUD/USD pair on Tuesday remained limited as the latest news about the new variant of coronavirus raised fears as it spread faster and raised the safe-haven appeal, and weighed on the risk perceived Aussie that ultimately capped further upside in the AUD/USD pair.


Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

0.7517 0.7584

0.7479 0.7611

0.7451 0.7650

Pivot Point: 0.7545

On the technical front, the AUD/USD is trading slightly bullish at 0.7560, facing immediate resistance at 0.7580 level. Bullish crossover of this level can extend upward trend until the next target level of 0.7615. However, failure to break above 0.7580 level can extend selling moves until the support area of 0.7545 level. The 50 periods EMA is suggesting buying trend, but the MACD is suggesting overbought scenario. Thus, we should look for bearish correction before entering another buying trade in the AUD/USD pair. The bullish bias remains dominant. Good luck! 

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Forex Signals

USD/CAD Bearish Bias Dominates – Descending Triangle Pattern in Play! 

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.26982 after placing a high of 1.27713 and a low of 1.26878. After placing gains for two consecutive days, the USD/CAD pair dropped on Tuesday amid the broad-based US dollar weakness and the rising crude oil prices.

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.26982 after placing a high of 1.27713 and a low of 1.26878. After placing gains for two consecutive days, the USD/CAD pair dropped on Tuesday amid the broad-based US dollar weakness and the rising crude oil prices.

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.26982 after placing a high of 1.27713 and a low of 1.26878. After placing gains for two consecutive days, the USD/CAD pair dropped on Tuesday amid the broad-based US dollar weakness and the rising crude oil prices.

The US dollar was weak across the board on Tuesday as the hopes for further stimulus measures from the US Congress increased. The House Speaker Nancy Pelosi called a meeting of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, and House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy to discuss the final government funding and coronavirus relief bill.

The optimism that Republicans and Democrats will reach a deal over the bipartisan package of coronavirus added weight on the US dollar and dragged the USD/CAD pair on the downside. Furthermore, the rising risk sentiment in the market and the increasing hopes that vaccine rollouts will help in global economic recovery raised the demand for WTI crude oil prices that gave strength to the commodity-linked Loonie and ultimately added weight on the USD/CAD pair.

On the data front, at 18:13 GMT, the Housing Starts raised to 246K against the forecasted 220K and supported the Canadian dollar that added pressure on the USD/CAD pair, and added in its losses on Tuesday. At 18:30 GMT, the Manufacturing Sales from Canada dropped to 0.3% against the forecasted 0.5% and weighed on the Canadian dollar. 

From the US front, at 18:30 GMT, the Empire State Manufacturing Index for December declined to 4.9 against the forecasted 6.3 and weighed on the US dollar that added losses in USD/CAD pair. The US Import Prices in November also fell to 0.1% against the forecasted 0.3% and weighed on the US dollar that ultimately added further losses in the USD/CAD pair. At 19:15 GMT, the Capacity Utilization Rate from the US for November rose to 73.3% against the forecasted 73.1% and supported the US dollar. The Industrial Production in November also increased to 0.4% against the forecasted 0.3% and supported the US dollar that limited the downward momentum in the USD/CAD pair on Tuesday.

Furthermore, the US dollar was also weak across the board on Tuesday because of the rising number of coronavirus cases in the region. The hospitalization rate in the US also increased as a record of 109,331 people were in the hospitals for coronavirus in the US in a single day over the weekend. The death toll has also surpassed 300,000 levels in the US, and this has feared the nation despite the vaccine rollout. These fears added weight on the local currency US dollar that ultimately added in the downward momentum of the USD/CAD pair.


Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.2665 1.2752

1.2632 1.2806

1.2578 1.2839

Pivot Point: 1.2719

The technical side of the USD/CAD is trading at 1.2728 level, holding below an immediate resistance level of 1.2743 mark which is extended by a downward trendline. On the lower side, the next support holds around 1.2693 level and violation of this level can extend further selling until the next support area of 1.2650 level. The MACD and RSI are in support of selling while the 50 periods EMA is dispensing a strong selling bias in the Loonie. let’s consider taking a selling trade below 1.2743 level until 1.2695 level. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 16 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – U.K.Manufacturing PMI Figures Ahead! 

On the news front, eyes will remain on the series of Manufacturing PMI figures from the Eurozone, U.K., and the U.S. Although it’s a low impact event, it may help determine the market sentiment today.

On the news front, eyes will remain on the series of Manufacturing PMI figures from the Eurozone, U.K., and the U.S. Although it’s a low impact event, it may help determine the market sentiment today.

On the news front, eyes will remain on the series of Manufacturing PMI figures from the Eurozone, U.K., and the U.S. Although it’s a low impact event, it may help determine the market sentiment today.

 

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair closed at 1.21522 after placing a high of 1.21687 and a low of 1.21210. Despite the coronavirus related lockdowns, the EUR/USD pair moved higher on Tuesday as the European stock markets traded higher amid the optimism over the ongoing Brexit trade negotiations.

The European Union negotiator Michel Barnier said that securing a trade deal with Britain was still possible. In contrast, European Commission Ursula von der Leyen said that there was some movement over the sticking points.

According to the Times of London, the two sides had made progress on the level playing field, and only the biggest obstacle to a deal has left of differences over fishing rights. However, the hopes increased that some form of a deal could be reached with just days to go before the U.K. leaves the E.U. trading bloc. This optimism kept the single currency Euro higher and supported the upward momentum in EUR/USD pair.

On the data front, at 12:45 GMT, the French Final CPI for November came in line with the expectations of 0.2%. At 15:00 GMT, the Italian Trade Balance for October raised to 7.57B against the forecasted 5.40B and supported Euro and added gains in the EUR/USD pair.

On the U.S. front, at 18:30 GMT, the Empire State Manufacturing Index for December declined to 4.9 against the projected 6.3 and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added further gains in EUR/USD pair. The U.S. Import Prices in November fell to 0.1% against the projected 0.3% and weighed on the U.S. dollar and supported the upward momentum in EUR/USD pair. At 19:15 GMT, the Capacity Utilization Rate from the U.S. for November rose to 73.3% against the projected 73.1% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Industrial Production in November also surged to 0.4%against the projected 0.3% and supported the U.S. dollar and capped further gains in EUR/USD pair.

Meanwhile, the lockdown restrictions increased in Europe, given the region’s rising number of coronavirus cases. On late Monday, the U.K. government imposed tighter restrictions on London amid the increased infection rates. It cited that these may be partly linked to a new variant of the coronavirus. From Wednesday, Germany will also enter a lockdown that will include the closure of non-essential stores. Netherland also announced a new five-week lockdown, while Italy was considering more restrictions over the Christmas holidays.

Throughout the region, these lockdown restrictions added pressure on the single currency Euro and capped further gains in the EUR/USD pair on Tuesday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.2126       1.2175

1.2099       1.2197

1.2077       1.2224

Pivot point: 1.2148

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The precious metal gold continues to trade bullish at 1,857, having crossed over double top resistance level of 1,857 level. On the higher side, the metal opens up further room for buying until the next target level of 1,865 and 1,875 level. On the lower side, the precious metal gold may find support at 1,848, and below this level, the metal may drop until the 1,832 level. Let’s consider staying bullish over 1,848 today. The 50 periods EMA supports a bullish bias, keeping the EUR/USD pair in a little bit of buying mode. Simultaneously, the MACD and RSI are also supporting a buying trend; thus, we should look for a buying trade over the 1.2175 level to target the 1.2265 level today. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

 The GBP/USD pair closed at 1.34635 after placing a high of 1.34688 and a low of 1.32800. The GBP/USD pair was among the best performer on the day amid the speculation regarding the prospect of an imminent Brexit deal.

There were speculations mostly amongst Conservative M.P.s that a Brexit deal was close and might be voted in the House of Commons next Monday and Tuesday. This optimism led the GBP/USD pair higher in the market to post gains for the day.

After posting losses for three consecutive days, the currency pair GBP/USD pair rose by nearly 1% on Tuesday after the speculation that there had been progressing on the issue of a level playing field. The European Union negotiator Michel Barnier said that reaching a trade pact with Britain was still possible. At the same time, European Commission Ursula von der Leyen noted that there was some progress made over the sticking points.

British Pound is highly sensitive to Brexit progress, and any news showing optimism regarding the post-Brexit trade deal with the E.U. will have a great impact on the GBP/USD pair. This was the reason behind the sudden surge in GBP/USD currency pair on Tuesday despite the renewed lockdown restrictions by the U.K. government over London.

The Health Secretary of the UK, Matt Hancock, said on Monday that this week London would return to a strict lockdown as the coronavirus cases have soared in the British capital. Hancock said London would move from England’s Tier 2 – high alert local restrictions to Tier 3 – very high alert on Wednesday noon. 

Under the highest restriction level, all hospitality venues, including pubs, restaurants, and cafes, will close except for takeout and delivery. People will avoid unnecessary traveling and reduce the number of journeys. Residents in London will be restricted from meeting in private gardens or outdoor venues.

Meanwhile, on the data front, at 12:00 GMT, the Average Earnings Index from Great Britain raised to 2.7% against the forecasted 2.2% and supported the British Pound that added gains in the GBP/USD pair. The Claimant Count Change from the U.K. raised to 64.3K against the expected 10.5K and weighed on British Pound. The Unemployment Rate from the U.K. dropped to 4.9% from the expected 5.1% and supported the Sterling that added strength to the GBP/USD pair.

From the U.S. side, at 18:30 GMT, the Empire State Manufacturing Index for December fell to 4.9 against the estimated 6.3 and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added further gains in GBP/USD pair. The U.S. Import Prices in November dropped to 0.1% against the estimated 0.3% and weighed on the U.S. dollar and supported the upward momentum in GBP/USD pair. At 19:15 GMT, the Capacity Utilization Rate from the U.S. for November surged to 73.3% against the estimated 73.1% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Industrial Production in November also rose to 0.4% against the estimated 0.3% and supported the U.S. dollar.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3338       1.3528

1.3218       1.3595

1.3147       1.3719

Pivot point: 1.3404

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.3460 level, facing immediate resistance at 1.3475 and 1.3538 level. While the support stays at 1.3430 and 1.3401 level. The RSI and MACD support the buying trend in the market, while Cable has the potential to stay bullish over 1.3400 today. A choppy session can be expected until the pair violates the 1.3345 – 1.3309 range.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair closed at 103.647 after placing a high of 104.150 and a low of 103.604. The USD/JPY pair failed to capitalize on its previous daily gains and dropped on Tuesday over the fears of a new variant of coronavirus and the increased lockdown restrictions over the globe.

The safe-haven appeal in the market returned after the U.K. Health Minister Matt Hancock told parliament that a new variant of the coronavirus associated with faster spread had been identified in southeast England. This led to widespread concern as headlines in the newspaper called this new variant “Super covid” and “mutant covid.”

Matt Hancock added that about 60 different local authorities had recorded coronavirus infections caused by the new variant. He also said that the World Health Organization had been notified, and a detailed study by U.K. scientists has started.

The fear of new and improved disease raised the market’s safe-haven appeal as London went into renewed lockdown restriction of Tier-3 level. Along with London, Germany and Netherland also extended their lockdown restrictions. The rising demand for safe-haven assets added strength to the Japanese Yen that ultimately weighed on the USD/JPY pair.

Meanwhile, on the data front, at 18:30 GMT, the Empire State Manufacturing Index for December declined to 4.9 against the anticipated 6.3. It weighed on the U.S. dollar that added further losses in the USD/JPY pair. The U.S. Import Prices in November fell to 0.1% against the anticipated 0.3% and weighed on the U.S. dollar and added further in the losses of the USD/JPY pair. At 19:15 GMT, the Capacity Utilization Rate from the U.S. for November rose to 73.3% against the anticipated 73.1% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Industrial Production in November also surged to 0.4% against the anticipated 0.3% and supported the U.S. dollar and capped further losses in the USD/JPY pair.

Furthermore, on Tuesday, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the U.S. senior official for infectious diseases, predicted that the U.S. could begin to achieve early stages of herd immunity against the deadly coronavirus by late Spring or Summer. 

Fauci said that to see an impact of the vaccine over the coronavirus spread, almost 50% of people would have to get vaccinated. To achieve herd immunity, 75 to 85% of people would have to get vaccinated. 

Herd immunity occurs when enough people become immune to the disease that the spread of the virus from one person to another person becomes unlikely. Fauci pointed to polio and measles as examples of herd immunity. Despite these positive statements from the top health official from the U.S., the USD/JPY pair failed to reverse its direction upward because of traders’ focus on the new variant of coronavirus.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

103.47       104.02

103.25       104.37

102.91       104.58

Pivot Point: 103.81

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading dramatically bearish, falling below 103.700. This resistance area is extended by a double bottom pattern, which later was violated on the 2-hour timeframe. Below this level, the USD/JPY pair has odds of extending a sell trade until the next support level of 103.211. The 50 EMA and MACD are supporting selling bias. Thus we can expect to sell below 103.700, to target the 103.200 mark. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave Forex Market Analysis

EURAUD Advances Supported by the RBA Minutes

Technical Overview

Technical Overview

Technical Overview

The EURAUD cross advanced on the overnight trading session, expecting the minutes from the last Reserve Australia Bank (RBA) interest rate decision meeting, where policymakers decided to keep unchanged the rate at 0.1% for the second month in a row.

Source: TradingEconomics.com

On the technical side, the following 12-hour chart shows the short-term market sentiment unfolded by the 90-day high and low range, which illustrates the cross consolidating in the extreme bearish sentiment zone. 

The bullish candlestick formation developed during the recent trading sessions carries to suspect the possibility of a short-term bounce. This bounce could find strike the level 1.62374 that corresponds to the resistance of the extreme bearish zone.

On the other hand, the short-term primary trend plotted in blue shows the bearish bias that remains in progress. The secondary trend also shows the intraday downward acceleration, which dragged the price until 1.60408, where the cross found support. Likewise, the bounce observed on the EMA(60) to Close Index carries to support the possibility of a limited recovery.

Technical Outlook

The short-term Elliott wave view for the EURAUD cross shows the downward progress of the incomplete five-wave sequence of Minute degree labeled in black, suggesting a limited recovery in the following trading sessions.

The next 4-hour chart shows the bearish movement subdivided into a five-wave sequence of Minute degree identified in black. It began on October 20th at 1.68273 and found its temporary bottom at 1.60408 on December 11th.

The previous figure illustrates the price looks advancing in its fifth wave in black, which after the bottom reached on the last Friday 11 session completed its wave (iii) of Minuette degree labeled in blue. In this context, according to the Elliott wave theory, the price action should start to develop a corrective formation, which could find resistance in the supply zone between 1.61786 and 1.62271.

On the other hand, considering that the wave ((iii)) in black looks like the extended wave, the fifth wave could have a limited extension. In this context, the lesser degree structure of the wave ((v)) could pierce slightly below the end of wave (iii) in blue.

In conclusion, the EURAUD cross shows the possibility of a limited recovery, which could strike the supply zone between 1.61786 and 1.62271, where the price could start to consolidate in a sideways range with support at the end of wave (iii) at 1.60408. On the other hand, if the cross surpasses the supply zone, it would indicate further recoveries, and the price could start a bullish rally. Finally, the invalidation level of the current bearish scenario locates at 1.62872.

Categories
Forex Signals

AUD/USD Supported Over 0.7515 Level – Is It Good Time to Buy? 

The AUD/USD pair was closed at 0.75324 after placing a high of 0.75779 and a low of 0.75243. After placing gains for three consecutive days, the AUD/USD pair dropped on Monday despite the market’s risk flows. After rising above the highest level since June 2018, the AUD/USD pair saw heavy technical selling in the market. The pair reached above the 0.75700 level and faced heavy selling pressure as the investors started to take profits from their trades. The profit-taking overshadowed the market’s risk flows, and the pair AUD/USD continued falling on Monday. 

The AUD/USD pair was closed at 0.75324 after placing a high of 0.75779 and a low of 0.75243. After placing gains for three consecutive days, the AUD/USD pair dropped on Monday despite the market’s risk flows. After rising above the highest level since June 2018, the AUD/USD pair saw heavy technical selling in the market. The pair reached above the 0.75700 level and faced heavy selling pressure as the investors started to take profits from their trades. The profit-taking overshadowed the market’s risk flows, and the pair AUD/USD continued falling on Monday. 

The AUD/USD pair was closed at 0.75324 after placing a high of 0.75779 and a low of 0.75243. After placing gains for three consecutive days, the AUD/USD pair dropped on Monday despite the market’s risk flows. After rising above the highest level since June 2018, the AUD/USD pair saw heavy technical selling in the market. The pair reached above the 0.75700 level and faced heavy selling pressure as the investors started to take profits from their trades. The profit-taking overshadowed the market’s risk flows, and the pair AUD/USD continued falling on Monday. 

The risk sentiment was improved on Monday due to the latest vaccine rollout in the US and Canada after the UK. The US started giving Pfizer and BioNtech vaccine doses to nurses and health officials on Monday as it provides a 95% efficacy rate against the coronavirus.

The vaccine rolls out raised hopes that the global economic recovery will soon begin as the coronavirus will become less of a threat. This optimism raised the risk sentiment in the market but failed to impress the risk-sensitive Aussie buyers.

The risk sentiment was also supported by the latest hopes that the US coronavirus stimulus bill will be released soon to support the US economy from the coronavirus impact. The US dollar also came under pressure as the coronavirus cases, and the death toll from COVID-19 surpassed 300,000 number. The US dollar weakness could not impress the AUD/USD buyers, and the pair continued its bearish movement on Monday.

Meanwhile, the AUD/USD pair was under pressure on Monday as Biden has said that he will not remove the tariffs on Chinese products by Trump immediately. The President-elect nominated Katherine Tail for the role of US trade representative said on Friday that she was the trade enforcer against China’s unfair trade practices that will be a key priority in the Biden-Harris administration. It was a sign that Donald trump’s trade war will continue, which weighed on the China-Proxy Australian dollar and added losses in the AUD/USD pair on Monday.


Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

0.7514 0.7570

0.7492 0.7602

0.7459 0.7625

Pivot point: 0.7547

The AUD/USD is trading sideways at 0.7515, but it’s supported by an upward trendline that can be seen in the 2-hour timeframe. On the higher side, the AUD/USD is forming a double top level at 0.7527, which is now extending resistance. The leading technical indicators such as MACD and RSI support the buying trend, while the 50 periods EMA is also supporting the AUD/USD pair at 0.7515. Let’s consider buying over 0.7515 level to capture quick 40 pips. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

GBP/USD Violates Double Bottom – Sell Trade in Play! 

The GBP/USD is trading at the 1.3330 level, maintaining a narrow trading range of 1.3345 – 1.3309. A lack of high-impact economic data drives the choppy session; however, the market will be offering us labor market figures, which are expected to be worse than before, and it may drive selling in the Sterling. Technically, the bearish breakout of the 1.3309 level can extend the selling trend until the 1.3265 level, whereas a bullish breakout can lead it towards the 1.3409 mark. A choppy session can be expected until the pair violates the 1.3345 – 1.3309 range.

The GBP/USD is trading at the 1.3330 level, maintaining a narrow trading range of 1.3345 – 1.3309. A lack of high-impact economic data drives the choppy session; however, the market will be offering us labor market figures, which are expected to be worse than before, and it may drive selling in the Sterling. Technically, the bearish breakout of the 1.3309 level can extend the selling trend until the 1.3265 level, whereas a bullish breakout can lead it towards the 1.3409 mark. A choppy session can be expected until the pair violates the 1.3345 – 1.3309 range.

The GBP/USD is trading at the 1.3330 level, maintaining a narrow trading range of 1.3345 – 1.3309. A lack of high-impact economic data drives the choppy session; however, the market will be offering us labor market figures, which are expected to be worse than before, and it may drive selling in the Sterling. Technically, the bearish breakout of the 1.3309 level can extend the selling trend until the 1.3265 level, whereas a bullish breakout can lead it towards the 1.3409 mark. A choppy session can be expected until the pair violates the 1.3345 – 1.3309 range.


Entry Price – Sell 1.33045

Stop Loss – 1.33445

Take Profit – 1.32645

Risk to Reward – 1:1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.

iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368

Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 15 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – U.K. Labor Market Figures! 

Investor’s eyes will stay on the French Final CPI and Italian Trade Balance due from the European Economy. Economists are expecting no major changes in these inflation and trade balance data. Thus it may go muted. However, the Claimant Count Change and Unemployment Rate data from the U.K. is likely to drive market movements. Let’s keep an eye on U.K. labor market figures today.

Investor’s eyes will stay on the French Final CPI and Italian Trade Balance due from the European Economy. Economists are expecting no major changes in these inflation and trade balance data. Thus it may go muted. However, the Claimant Count Change and Unemployment Rate data from the U.K. is likely to drive market movements. Let’s keep an eye on U.K. labor market figures today.

Investor’s eyes will stay on the French Final CPI and Italian Trade Balance due from the European Economy. Economists are expecting no major changes in these inflation and trade balance data. Thus it may go muted. However, the Claimant Count Change and Unemployment Rate data from the U.K. is likely to drive market movements. Let’s keep an eye on U.K. labor market figures today.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

During Tuesday’s Asian trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair managed to extend its overnight winning streak and sidelined near above the 1.2150 level mainly due to the risk-on market sentiment. That was supported by the upbeat China data and optimism over treatment for the highly infectious coronavirus, which weakens the safe-haven U.S. dollar and contributes to the currency pair gains. Moreover, the upbeat market tone was further boosted by the further U.S. stimulus package’s rising expectations, which add further burden around the U.S. dollar and boost the currency pair. 

On the contrary, the ongoing concerns about increasing COVID-19 deaths and the possibility of economically-painful hard lockdowns become the key factor that kept the lid on any additional gains in the currency pair. As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.2149 and consolidating in the range between 1.2143 – 1.2165.

As we already mentioned, the market trading sentiment succeeded in extending its previous day bullish bias and still representing positive performance on the day as the bullish appearance of Asia-Pacific stocks and the gains of the U.S. stocks futures tends to highlight the risk-on mood. However, the risk-on market sentiment could be attributed to the vaccine optimism and upbeat China data, which showed the economic recovery increased in November. On the data front, China’s Retail Sales increased by 5.0% year-on-year in November, marking the 4th-successive month of growth. Industrial Production, a gauge of manufacturing, mining, and utility output, rose 7% year-on-year versus October’s 5.9% growth. 

On the other hand, the renewed optimism over a possible vaccine for the highly infectious coronavirus disease also keeps supporting the market trading sentiment. It is worth recalling that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted permission for emergency use to BNT162b2, the COVID-19 vaccine co-developed by Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) and BioNTech SE (F:22UAy) on December 11. The approval will see the first U.S. deliveries of BNT162b2 later in the day, which lifted hopes that the world’s largest economy will likely see a reduction in the COVID-19 cases. However, the positive developments over the covid vaccine keep favoring the market risk-on mood and undermine the safe-haven U.S. dollar.

As in result, the broad-based U.S. dollar failed to stop its previous day bearish bias and drew further offers on the day as demand for the safe-haven assets decreased amid progress toward agreeing on U.S. fiscal stimulus and optimism for a Brexit deal. On the other hand, the U.S. dollar losses were further bolstered by the Fed’s expectations to keep interest rates low for an extended period at its last policy meeting of 2020. However, the U.S. dollar losses helped the gold prices to deeper its losses as the gold price is inversely related to the U.S. dollar price. The U.S. Dollar Index Futures that tracks the greenback against a bucket of other currencies dropped to 90.642.

On the contrary, the concerns about rising COVID-19 deaths and the possibility of economically-painful hard lockdowns keep challenging the upbeat market performance, which becomes the key factor that kept the lid on any additional gains currency pair. As per the latest report, the growing virus cases recall the local lockdowns in the U.K. and the U.S. After New York, that was witnessed readiness to enter a second full lockdown as the number of COVID-19 cases surge. In addition to this, Germany also extended national activity restrictions. Across the ocean, the fears of a full-fledged trade/political war between the West and China also challenge the market’s upbeat mood. The tension between the two biggest economies in the world was fueled after the U.S. imposed back to back travel restrictions over the Chinese Communist Party members and their families.

In the absence of the major data/events on the day, the market traders will keep their eyes on the continuous drama surrounding the U.S. stimulus package. In the meantime, the risk catalyst like geopolitics and the virus woes, not to forget the Brexit, will also be key to watch for a fresh direction. 

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.2044       1.2133

1.2006       1.2186

1.1954       1.2223

Pivot point: 1.2096

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The technical side of the EUR/USD is still unchanged as it trades at the 1.2131 level, facing immediate resistance at 1.2160 and 1.2196 level along with a support level of 1.2085. Closing of candles below the 1.2103 level can send the EUR/USD pair further lower until 1.2080 and 1.2040. The 50 periods EMA supports a bullish bias, keeping the EUR/USD pair in a little bit of buying mode. Simultaneously, the MACD and RSI are also in support of a buying trend; thus, we should look for a buying trade over the 1.2175 level to target the 1.2265 level today. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

During Tuesday’s Asian trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair maintained its strong bid tone through the first half of the Asian session and remained positive around the 1.3335 level mainly due to the reports suggesting that the U.K. and the E.U. agreed to extend Brexit talks. Furthermore, the bid tone surrounding the British pound was further bolstered after the E.U.’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, said that they could face every hurdle to reach a post-Brexit trade deal. 

Across the ocean, the broad-based U.S. dollar fresh weakness, backed by the market risk-on mood, also played its major role in underpinning the currency pair. At a particular time, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3333 and consolidating in the range between 1.3312 – 1.3348. Moving on, the traders seem cautious to place any strong position ahead of the U.K. jobs data, which is due to release later in the day.

It is worth recalling that the U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European Commission President announced that they discussed the key issues and decided to go for another round of discussions to reach a historic trade deal, which in turn, raised expectations for a free trade agreement before the end of Brexit transition period on December 31. However, these hopes were further fueled after the E.U.’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, told them to use every way to reach a post-Brexit trade deal.

Despite the prevalent doubts over the global economic recovery from coronavirus (COVID-19), the market trading sentiment managed to extend its previous day’s positive performance. It remained supportive by optimism over a potential vaccine/treatment for the highly infectious coronavirus. Let me remind you that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted permission for emergency use to BNT162b2, the COVID-19 vaccine co-developed by Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) and BioNTech SE (F:22UAy) on December 11. However, the positive developments over the covid vaccine keep favoring the market risk-on mood and undermine the safe-haven U.S. dollar.

As in result, the broad-based U.S. dollar failed to stop its previous day bearish bias and drew further offers on the day as demand for the safe-haven assets decreased amid progress toward agreeing on U.S. fiscal stimulus and optimism for a Brexit deal. On the other hand, the U.S. dollar losses were further bolstered by the Fed’s expectations to keep interest rates low for an extended period at its last policy meeting of 2020. However, the U.S. dollar losses provided an additional boost to the GBP/USD currency pair and remained supportive of the strong intraday positive move. The U.S. Dollar Index Futures that tracks the greenback against a bucket of other currencies dropped to 90.642.

On the bearish side, the concerns about rising COVID-19 deaths and the possibilities of the economically-painful hard lockdowns keep challenging the upbeat market performance, which becomes the key factor that kept the lid on any additional gains in the currency pair. As per the latest report, the growing virus cases recall the local lockdowns in the U.K. and the U.S. After New York, that was witnessed readiness to enter a second full lockdown as the number of COVID-19 cases surge. In addition to this, Germany also extended national activity restrictions. 

Moving on, the traders seem cautious to place any strong position ahead of the U.K. jobs data, which is due to release later in the day. From the projected view, the U.K. labor market report is anticipated to show that the average weekly earnings, including bonuses, in the 3-months to October, to increase from the previous 1.3% to 2.2%, while ex-bonuses, the wages are seen improving from 1.9% to 2.6% during the stated period. 

In addition to this, the number of people asking for jobless benefits is expected to rise from -29.8K previous to +50K in November. Moreover, the ILO Unemployment Rate may rise from 4.8% to 5.1% during the 3- months ending in October. However, the positive earnings growth tends to underpin the GBP; conversely, the low figures would be seen as negative for the GBP currency.

In the absence of the major data/events on the day, the market traders will keep their eyes on the continuous drama surrounding the U.S. stimulus package. In the meantime, the risk catalyst like geopolitics and the virus woes, not to forget the Brexit, will also be key to watch for a fresh direction. 

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3338       1.3466

1.3280       1.3536

1.3209       1.3594

Pivot point: 1.3408

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading at the 1.3330 level, maintaining a narrow trading range of 1.3345 – 1.3309. A lack of high-impact economic data drives the choppy session; however, the market will be offering us labor market figures, which are expected to be worse than before, and it may drive selling in the Sterling. Technically, the bearish breakout of the 1.3309 level can extend the selling trend until the 1.3265 level, whereas a bullish breakout can lead it towards the 1.3409 mark. A choppy session can be expected until the pair violates the 1.3345 – 1.3309 range.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

During Tuesday’s Asian trading session, the USD/JPY currency pair managed to stop its previous day losing streak and drew some modest bids around well above the 104.00 level. However, the bullish sentiment around the currency pair was supported by the upbeat market mood, which undermined the safe-haven Japanese yen and contributed to the currency pair gains. Apart from this, the latest local lockdowns in the northern hemispheres and the surge in Tokyo’s virus figures added further pressure on the Japanese yen and boosted the currency pair. On the contrary, the broad-based U.S. dollar, triggered by the upbeat market mood, has become the key factor that capped further upside momentum for the currency pair. Currently, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 104.09 and consolidating in the range between 103.98 – 104.15. 

As we already mentioned, market trading sentiment has been gaining positive traction since the day started and supported by the optimism over the U.S. President-elect Joe Biden’s victory in the Electoral College. As per the latest report, the U.S. President-elect Joe Biden recently won Electoral College and claimed his victory over President Donald Trump by achieving over 270 votes needed. In addition to this, the intensifying hopes of the U.S. covid stimulus also positively impacted the market trading sentiment. These hopes were triggered after Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi urged policymakers toward an early aid package while also indicating good progress in the discussions. 

Across the ocean, the reason behind the risk-on market sentiment could also be attributed to the upbeat China data, which showed the economic recovery improved in November. On the data front, China’s Retail Sales increased by 5.0% year-on-year in November, marking the 4th-successive month of growth. Industrial Production, a gauge of manufacturing, mining, and utility output, rose 7% year-on-year versus October’s 5.9% growth. 

On the other hand, the renewed optimism over a possible vaccine for the highly infectious coronavirus disease also keeps supporting the market trading sentiment. It is worth recalling that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted permission for emergency use to BNT162b2, the COVID-19 vaccine co-developed by Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) and BioNTech SE (F:22UAy) on December 11. The approval will see the first U.S. deliveries of BNT162b2 later in the day, which lifted hopes that the world’s largest economy will likely see a reduction in the COVID-19 cases. However, the positive developments over the covid vaccine keep favoring the market risk-on mood and undermined the safe-haven assets like the Japanese yen and U.S. dollar.

At the USD front, the broad-based U.S. dollar extended its previous session bearish bias. It failed to gain any positive traction during the Asian trading hours amid risk-on market sentiment. Apart from this, the greenback losses could also be associated with the Fed’s expectations to keep interest rates low for an extended period at its last policy meeting of 2020. However, the U.S. dollar losses might stop bulls from placing any strong position and keep a lid on any further gains for the USD/JPY currency pair. The U.S. Dollar Index Futures that tracks the greenback against a bucket of other currencies dropped to 90.642.

However, the market trading sentiment was rather unaffected by the fresh lockdown restrictions in Britain and Europe. As per the latest report, the growing virus numbers recall the local lockdowns in the U.K. and the U.S. After New York, a willingness to enter a second full lockdown as the number of COVID-19 cases surge. In addition to this, Germany also extended national activity restrictions. 

In the absence of the major data/events on the day, the market traders will keep their eyes on the ongoing drama surrounding the U.S. stimulus package. In the meantime, the risk catalyst like geopolitics and the virus woes, not to forget the Brexit, will also be key to watch for a fresh direction. 

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

104.04       104.41

103.86       104.60

103.67       104.78

Pivot Point: 104.23

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is hardly moving as it continues to trade sideways below the 104.150 resistance area. This resistance area is extended by a double top level on the 2-hour timeframe. Bullish crossover of 104.156 level can open buying until 104.590 level. Conversely, the support holds around 103.910 level. A bearish breakout of this support can drive the selling trend until the next support area of 103.700 and 103.500. Let’s keep an eye on a breakout before placing any bullish or bearish bets. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

USD/CAD Violates Descending Triangle Pattern – Signal Update! 

During Monday’s Asian trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair failed to stop its overnight losses and remain depressed around below the 1.2750 level due to the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness. The prevalent downtrend in the greenback was mainly tied to the fresh optimism over a potential vaccine for the highly contagious coronavirus disease, which kept the market trading sentiment positive and undermined the safe-haven USD dollar. Furthermore, the U.S. dollar losses were further bolstered by the renewed probabilities that the Fed will keep interest rates low for an extended period at its last policy meeting of 2020. 

During Monday’s Asian trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair failed to stop its overnight losses and remain depressed around below the 1.2750 level due to the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness. The prevalent downtrend in the greenback was mainly tied to the fresh optimism over a potential vaccine for the highly contagious coronavirus disease, which kept the market trading sentiment positive and undermined the safe-haven USD dollar. Furthermore, the U.S. dollar losses were further bolstered by the renewed probabilities that the Fed will keep interest rates low for an extended period at its last policy meeting of 2020. 

During Monday’s Asian trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair failed to stop its overnight losses and remain depressed around below the 1.2750 level due to the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness. The prevalent downtrend in the greenback was mainly tied to the fresh optimism over a potential vaccine for the highly contagious coronavirus disease, which kept the market trading sentiment positive and undermined the safe-haven USD dollar. Furthermore, the U.S. dollar losses were further bolstered by the renewed probabilities that the Fed will keep interest rates low for an extended period at its last policy meeting of 2020. 

Across the pond, the reason for the declines in the currency pair could also be attributed to the fresh upticks in the crude oil prices, which tend to underpin the commodity-linked currency the Loonie and contributes to the currency pair’s losses. However, the crude oil prices were supported by prevalent optimism over a potential vaccine for the highly infectious coronavirus disease, which ultimately fueled hopes for a recovery in fuel demand and contributed to the crude oil price gains. As of writing, the USD/CAD currency pair is currently trading at 1.2755 and consolidating in the range between 1.2745 – 1.2764.

As we already mentioned, the market trading sentiment represented positive performance on the day as the bullish appearance of Asia-Pacific stocks and upticks of the U.S. 10-year Treasury yields tend to highlight the risk-on mood being supportive by optimism over a potential vaccine/treatment for the highly infectious coronavirus. It is worth recalling that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) provided emergency use permission to BNT162b2, the COVID-19 vaccine co-developed by Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) and BioNTech SE (F:22UAy) on Dec. 11. The approval will see the first U.S. deliveries of BNT162b2 later in the day, which lifted hopes that the world’s largest economy will likely see a reduction in the COVID-19 cases.

At the USD front, the broad-based U.S. dollar failed to erase its overnight losses and remained under pressure on the day mainly due to the market risk-on tone. Apart from this, coronavirus’s resurgence keeps fueling the fears that the U.S. economic recovery could be halt, which also keeps the greenback under pressure. On the other hand, the U.S. dollar losses were further bolstered by the expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates low for an extended period at its last policy meeting of 2020. However, the U.S. dollar losses could be considered the major factor that kept the currency pair lower. Meantime, the U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a bucket of other currencies, dropped by 0.03% to 92.487 by 10:02 PM ET (2:02 AM GMT).

At the crude oil front, WTI crude oil prices remained well bid around closer to $47.00 on the day, backed by the prevalent optimism over a potential vaccine for the highly infectious coronavirus disease, which ultimately fueled hopes for a recovery in fuel demand and contributed to the crude oil price gains. Apart from this, the reason for the crude oil gains could also be associated with fresh, positive reports suggesting an extension of Brexit talks between the U.K. and the European Union (E.U.), which eased global fuel demand worries and contributed to the crude oil price gains. Thus, the crude oil prices’ upticks underpinned the commodity-linked currency the Loonie and exerted some downside pressure on the currency pair. 

In the absence of significant data/events on the day, the market traders will keep their eyes on the continuous drama surrounding the U.S. stimulus package. In the meantime, the risk catalyst like geopolitics and the virus woes, not to forget the Brexit, will also be key to watch for a fresh direction. 


Daily Support and Resistance

S1 1.2613

S2 1.2687

S3 1.2727

Pivot Point 1.276

R1 1.28

R2 1.2833

R3 1.2907

Entry Price – Sell 1.274

Stop Loss – 1.2733

Take Profit – 1.27

Risk to Reward – 1:1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.

iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368

Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave Forex Market Analysis

NZDUSD Could Reach a New Yearly High

The NZDUSD pair continues extending its gains, testing the psychological barrier of 0.71, helped by the US Dollar weakness. The Oceanic currency outperforms over 5.4% during the current year. Also, the pair advances over 27% since it confirmed its bottom on March 22nd at 0.55862.

The NZDUSD pair continues extending its gains, testing the psychological barrier of 0.71, helped by the US Dollar weakness. The Oceanic currency outperforms over 5.4% during the current year. Also, the pair advances over 27% since it confirmed its bottom on March 22nd at 0.55862.

The NZDUSD pair continues extending its gains, testing the psychological barrier of 0.71, helped by the US Dollar weakness. The Oceanic currency outperforms over 5.4% during the current year. Also, the pair advances over 27% since it confirmed its bottom on March 22nd at 0.55862.

Technical Overview

The big picture of the NZDUSD illustrated in the following 12-hour chart shows the primary upward trend, its trendline plotted in blue, intact since March 22nd when the price confirmed its bottom at 0.55862 and began the rally that remains in progress to date. Likewise, the secondary trend and its green trendline reveal the acceleration of the price testing by the third time the psychological barrier of 0.71.

Considering that the NZDUSD pair currently re-tests the 0.71 level, the price could extend its gains, reaching a new yearly high, to find resistance in the next psychological resistance of 0.72.

Short-term Technical Outlook

The short-term Elliott wave view for the NZDUSD pair unfolded by its 4-hour chart led us to observe an incomplete impulsive sequence of Minute degree labeled in black, which began on October 22nd price found fresh buyers at 0.65529.

The previous chart illustrates the impulsive structure that continues progressing and looks to develop its fourth wave of Minute degree labeled in black. Moreover, in the chart, we should remark that the third wave, which looks like the extended wave of the incomplete impulsive sequence identified in black, has found resistance at 0.71043 on December 03rd. 

Once the price topped the yearly high at 0.71043, the pair began to develop a sideways corrective formation, still progressing. In this regard, considering both the alternation principle stated by the Elliott Wave Theory and that wave ((ii)) in black looks like a simple corrective pattern, the current wave ((iv)) of the same degree should be complex in terms of price, time, or both.

In this scenario, the price action might retrace until the demand zone bounded between 0.69462 and 0.68970, where the Kiwi could find fresh buyers expecting to boost the pair toward a new yearly high. This high could strike the potential target zone between 0.71618 and 0.7260.

In summary, the short-term Elliott wave perspective for the NZDUSD pair reveals the advance in a bullish trend that currently moves mostly sideways in an incomplete corrective formation. The fourth wave in progress could find support in the demand zone bounded between 0.69462 and 0.68970. Likewise, fresh buyers could boost the price toward 0.71618 and extend its gains until 0.7260. Finally, the invalidation level of the current bullish scenario is located at 0.68106.

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 14 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – European Events in Highlights!  

On the news side, the market is expected to report a low impact on economic events, which may have a very slight or no effect on the market. The German WPI m/m, Industrial Production, and German Buba Monthly Report will be released from the European economy. Still, I suspect there’s not going to be any significant movement in the market.

On the news side, the market is expected to report a low impact on economic events, which may have a very slight or no effect on the market. The German WPI m/m, Industrial Production, and German Buba Monthly Report will be released from the European economy. Still, I suspect there’s not going to be any significant movement in the market.

On the news side, the market is expected to report a low impact on economic events, which may have a very slight or no effect on the market. The German WPI m/m, Industrial Production, and German Buba Monthly Report will be released from the European economy. Still, I suspect there’s not going to be any significant movement in the market.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

  

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

During Monday’s Asian trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair succeeded in extending its overnight winning streak and remained well bid around the 1.2140 level mainly due to the risk-on market sentiment. That was supported by the optimism over treatment for the highly infectious coronavirus, which tends to weaken the safe-haven U.S. dollar and contributes to the currency pair gains. 

Moreover, the upbeat market tone was further boosted by the increasing expectations of a further U.S. stimulus package, which boosted the currency pair. On the contrary, the fresh jump in infections and death toll in Europe keeps fueling the doubts over the Eurozone economic recovery, which becomes the key factor that kept the lid on any additional currency pair gains. The EUR/USD is trading at 1.2134 and consolidating between 1.2116 and 1.2145.

The global equity market has been flashing green since the day started and is supported by the further stimulus package’s renewed possibilities. As per the latest report, the U.S. Congress members are still progressing over the much-awaited stimulus talks. In that way, the latest talks suggest the partition of over $900 billion of aid package with $748 billion and $160 billion likely figures for each bill. Across the pond, the optimism over treatment for the highly infectious coronavirus has also been favoring the market trading sentiment. These hopes were sparked after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) officially authorized the Pfizer-BioNTech covid vaccine for emergency use. Thereby, the upbeat market mood has been playing its major role in underpinning the currency pair.

The broad-based U.S. dollar declined to obtain any positive traction and drew an offer on the day as doubts persist over the global economic recovery from COVID-19. That was witnessed by the U.S. previous week’s downbeat U.S. data. Meanwhile, the risk-on market sentiment also weighed on the U.S. currency. On the other hand, the U.S. dollar losses were further bolstered by the Fed’s expectations to keep interest rates low for an extended period at its last policy meeting of 2020. However, the losses in the U.S. dollar becomes the key factor that kept the currency pair higher. The U.S. Dollar Index Futures that tracks the greenback against a bucket of other currencies dropped by 0.17% to 90.773 by 9:48 PM ET (1:48 AM GMT).

On the contrary, the intensifying coronavirus woes across the globe and intensifying lockdowns restrictions in Europe and the U.S. keep challenging the upbeat market performance and become the key factor that kept the lid on any additional gains in the currency pair. As per the latest report, the growing virus cases recall the local lockdowns in the U.K. and the U.S. In the meantime, Germany also extended national activity restrictions. Meanwhile, the fears of a full-fledged trade/political war between the West and China also challenge the market’s upbeat mood. The tension between the two largest markets in the world was fueled after the U.S. imposed back to back travel restrictions over the Chinese Communist Party members and their families.

Looking forward, the traders will keep their eyes on the U.S. employment data for November along with Euro German Factory Orders data, which will likely entertain market players amid a light calendar. All in all, the updates surrounding the Brexit, virus, and U.S. stimulus package will not lose their importance. 

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.2044       1.2133

1.2006       1.2186

1.1954       1.2223

Pivot point: 1.2096

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The technical side of the EUR/USD is trading choppy at the 1.2131 mark, meeting immediate resistance at 1.2160 and 1.2196 marks along with a support mark of 1.2085. Formation of candles beneath the 1.2103 level can send the EUR/USD pair further lower until 1.2080 and 1.2040. Industrial Production and German Buba Monthly Report will remain in highlights. Let’s wait to trade a breakout setup during the European or the U.S. session today. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

During Monday’s Asian trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair managed to stop its previous week’s bearish bias and refresh the intra-day high around above the mid-1.3300 level, mainly due to reports suggesting that the UK PM. Boris Johnson and the European Commission (E.C.) President Ursula von der Leyen agreed to extend the Brexit talks for one more week, which eased fears of a no-deal Brexit and contributed to the currency pair gains. On the other hand, the broad-based U.S. dollar fresh weakness, backed by the market risk-on mood, also played its major role in underpinning the currency pair. At a particular time, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3325 and consolidating in the range between 1.3291 – 1.3354.

It is worth recalling that the U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European Commission President announced that they discussed the key issues and decided to go for another round of discussions to reach a historic trade deal, which in turn, boosted the sentiment around the British Pound and contributed to the currency pair gans. In contrast, the British PM Johnson repeats, “I’m afraid we’re still very far apart on some issues.” However, this negative statement failed to leave any meaningful impact on the Pound. 

Despite the lingering doubts about global economic recovery and the intensifying tension between the world’s two biggest economies, the market players continue to cheering the optimism over a possible vaccine for the highly infectious coronavirus disease. These hopes were fueled after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) officially approved the Pfizer-BioNTech covid vaccine for emergency use. However, the positive developments over the covid vaccine keep favoring the market risk-on mood. Apart from this, the global equity market was further supported by the further stimulus package’s renewed possibilities. As per the latest report, the U.S. Congress members keep working to give the much-awaited stimulus package ahead of this Friday’s deadline. In that way, the latest talks suggest the partition of over $900 billion of aid package with $748 billion and $160 billion likely figures for each bill. 

As in result, the broad-based U.S. dollar failed to stop its bearish bias and remained depressed on the day. Moreover, the doubts over the global economic recovery from COVID-19 remains on the card. That was witnessed by the U.S. previous week’s downbeat U.S. data. On the other hand, the U.S. dollar losses were further bolstered by the Fed’s expectations to keep interest rates low for an extended period at its last policy meeting of 2020. However, the losses in the U.S. dollar becomes the key factor that kept the currency pair higher. The U.S. Dollar Index Futures that tracks the greenback against a bucket of other currencies dropped by 0.17% to 90.773 by 9:48 PM ET (1:48 AM GMT).

Conversely, the intensifying coronavirus woes in the U.K. and the U.S. and intensifying lockdown restrictions keep challenging the upbeat market performance and become the key factor that kept the lid on any additional gains in the currency pair. As per the latest report, the U.S. and U.K. policymakers were forced to impose the local lockdowns once again. In the meantime, Germany also extended national activity restrictions. 

Looking forward, the market traders will keep their eyes on the developments surrounding the Brexit story for some significant direction in the pair. Furthermore, the updates covering the virus and the US-China tussle will also be key to watch.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3338       1.3466

1.3280       1.3536

1.3209       1.3594

Pivot point: 1.3408

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading at the 1.3313 level, holding below an immediate resistance level of 1.3322. On the upper side, the GBP/USD pair can lead to a 1.3390 level, and support stays at 1.3269, which is extended by a double bottom level. Selling bias seems dominant; therefore, we should be looking for a sell trade only upon the violation of the 1.3265 level. The lagging technical indicators like 50 EMA suggest selling bias. Thus we should look for selling trades below 1.3400 and upon breakout 1.3265 level too.   

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

During Monday’s Asian trading session, the USD/JPY currency pair failed to gain any positive traction. They witnessed some modest selling moves near below the 104.00 level, mainly due to the upbeat market sentiment, which tends to undermine the safe-haven U.S. dollar and contributes to the currency pair losses. However, the market trading sentiment was supported by the optimism about the coronavirus treatment and progress in the U.S. stimulus talks. Simultaneously, the market’s upbeat mood weakens the safe-haven Japanese yen, which could be considered one of the key factors that help the currency pair limit its deeper losses. In contrast, Japan’s Tankan data for the 4th-quarter (Q4) marked upbeat figures, which boosted the Japanese yen’s sentiment and contributed to the currency pair losses.  

At the data front, Tankan Large Manufacturing Index for Q4 grew from -27 to -10, against expectations of -15, while the Non-Manufacturing Index increased from -6 market consensus to -5 during the stated period. Moreover, Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook and Non-Manufacturing Outlook also recorded upbeat numbers of -8 and -6 respectively, against -11 and -7 forecasts in that order.

Despite the lingering doubts over the U.S. economic recovery and the escalating tension between the world’s two biggest economies, the market players continue to cheer the optimism over a potential vaccine for the highly dangerous coronavirus infection. These hopes were fueled after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) officially approved the Pfizer-BioNTech covid vaccine for emergency use. In turn, the New York Times got help to say that the White House staff members will be among the first to be vaccinated. However, the positive developments over the covid vaccine keep favoring the market risk-on mood and contributed to the currency losses by undermining the safe-haven U.S. dollar.

Apart from this, the global equity market upticks were further fueled by the further stimulus package’s renewed possibilities. As per the latest report, the U.S. Congress members keep working to give the much-awaited stimulus package ahead of this Friday’s deadline. In that way, the latest talks suggest the partition of over $900 billion of aid package with $748 billion and $160 billion likely figures for each bill. 

This, in turn, the broad-based U.S. dollar failed to stop its bearish traction and edged lower on the day. Moreover, the doubts over the U.S. economic recovery from COVID-19 remains on the card, as witnessed by the U.S. previous week’s downbeat U.S. data. On the other hand, the U.S. dollar losses were further bolstered by the Fed’s expectations to keep interest rates low for an extended period at its last policy meeting of 2020. However, the losses in the U.S. dollar becomes the key factor that kept the currency pair lower. The U.S. Dollar Index Futures that tracks the greenback against a bucket of other currencies dropped by 0.17% to 90.773 by 9:48 PM ET (1:48 AM GMT).

The rising tensions between the United States and China keep challenging the market risk-on tone and might suffer the currency pair into deeper losses. It’s also questioning the market risk-on mood could be the intensifying coronavirus woes in the U.K. and U.S., which leads to the intensifying lockdown restrictions. 

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

104.04       104.41

103.86       104.60

103.67       104.78

Pivot Point: 104.23

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

During the previous week, the USD/JPY violation of the symmetric triangle pattern at 104.346 faked out as the safe-haven currency pair reversed trade within the same triangle pattern. The current trading range of the USD/JPY pair remains 104.375 – 103.650, and violation of this range can extend the selling trend until the next support area of 103.200 level. Typically, such a triangle pattern can breakout on either side; this, we should be careful before opening any trade. The market is neutral as investors seem to wind up their positions ahead of the December holidays. Good luck

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave Forex Market Analysis

EURNZD Consolidates after Bouncing from its Recent Lows

The EURNZD cross is seen consolidating near the extreme bearish sentiment zone backed by the strength of the New Zealand dollar. This consolidation suggests a pause of the downward sequence that began on August 20th and ended heavily oversold after its latest decline that drove it to 1.69472.

The EURNZD cross is seen consolidating near the extreme bearish sentiment zone backed by the strength of the New Zealand dollar. This consolidation suggests a pause of the downward sequence that began on August 20th and ended heavily oversold after its latest decline that drove it to 1.69472.

The EURNZD cross is seen consolidating near the extreme bearish sentiment zone backed by the strength of the New Zealand dollar. This consolidation suggests a pause of the downward sequence that began on August 20th and ended heavily oversold after its latest decline that drove it to 1.69472.

Technical Overview

The following 12-hour chart illustrates the short-term markets participants’ sentiment bounded by the 90 high and low range, which shows the price consolidating in the extreme bearish sentiment zone after the cross found support on 1.69472 on November 24th.

Furthermore, the previous chart shows the primary trend outlined a blue trend-line that tells the bias remains mostly bearish. Likewise, the secondary trend represented with the green trend-line exposes the downward acceleration, and, shows also its consolidation range between the levels of 1.69472 and 1.72664.

Finally, as long as the EURNZD cross keeps moving below level 1.72664, the bias will remain bearish, so we could expect further drops, likely below 1.69472. Whereas, the breakout of the extreme bearish zone of 1.72664 to the upside could indicate the start of a recovery.

Short-term Technical Outlook

The short-term outlook for the EURNZD cross under the Elliott Wave perspective is shown in the next 2-hour chart and seen moving in an incomplete downward sequence. The current leg in which is moving corresponds to the wave ((c)) of Minute degree labeled in black.  Within that wave ((c)), the price is advancing in its fourth wave of Minuette degree identified in blue.

 

We see all that the wave ((c)) of Minute degree labeled in black came after the completion of the wave ((b)), which ends on 1.80212 where the cross found fresh sellers dragging it in an accelerated bearish movement. In this context, the current wave ((c)) should develop an internal structure of five waves.

Right now, the chart shows the action is happening in its fourth wave, in blue, which could be advancing in its internal wave b of Subminuette degree identified in green. This leg could possibly test November’s lows. Likewise, considering that the third wave, in blue, looks like an extended wave, the fourth wave should be complex in price, time, or both. Therefore, the current corrective wave could continue evlving likely until early 2021.

Concerning the fifth wave, in blue, and considering that the third one of the same degree was the extended movement, there are two potential scenarios for the cross:

  • First scenario: the cross fails in its downward sequence finding fresh buyers above the end of the third wave, in blue, at 1.69472.
  • Second scenario: the cross penetrates below 1.69472, creating a new lower low. In this case, this new leg down could continue until the psychological barrier of 1.68.

In summary, the EURNZD cross currently moves in a corrective formation in the extreme bearish sentiment zone. In this context, our principal bias remains neutral until the completion of the fourth wave in blue. Once the cross ends the current consolidation, we could seek short positions following the direction of the fifth wave. Finally, the invalidation level of the bearish scenario locates at 1.73606.

Categories
Forex Signals

AUD/USD Violates Upward Channel – Brace for a Buying Trade 

The AUD/USD pair was closed at 0.75350 after placing a high of 0.75296 and a low of 0.74254. The Australian Dollar rose to its highest level in two and a half year as investors started to bet on a successful vaccine roll-out and improving global growth. The risk-sensitive Aussie gained as much as 0.8% on Thursday and rose to its highest since June 2018 as the market’s risk sentiment improved. The pair AUD/USD has gained about 6.8% this year as a rebound in China’s economy has boosted China-proxy Australian Dollar demand.

The AUD/USD pair was closed at 0.75350 after placing a high of 0.75296 and a low of 0.74254. The Australian Dollar rose to its highest level in two and a half year as investors started to bet on a successful vaccine roll-out and improving global growth. The risk-sensitive Aussie gained as much as 0.8% on Thursday and rose to its highest since June 2018 as the market’s risk sentiment improved. The pair AUD/USD has gained about 6.8% this year as a rebound in China’s economy has boosted China-proxy Australian Dollar demand.

The AUD/USD pair was closed at 0.75350 after placing a high of 0.75296 and a low of 0.74254. The Australian Dollar rose to its highest level in two and a half year as investors started to bet on a successful vaccine roll-out and improving global growth. The risk-sensitive Aussie gained as much as 0.8% on Thursday and rose to its highest since June 2018 as the market’s risk sentiment improved. The pair AUD/USD has gained about 6.8% this year as a rebound in China’s economy has boosted China-proxy Australian Dollar demand.

The risk sentiment in the market was supported by the combination of multiple factors on Thursday and supported the upward trend in the Australian Dollar. The rising hopes for the US stimulus bill after the US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin that a lot of progress has been made regarding the stimulus talks added in the risk sentiment. Meanwhile, the US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi also said that bipartisan negotiations on the coronavirus relief bill were making great progress. These comments reflected the upbeat market mood and supported the risk perceived Australian Dollar.

On the other hand, the US dollar was also weak on Thursday that also supported the upside momentum in AUD/USD pair. The US dollar weakness was driven by the increased unemployment claims and additional stimulus from ECB on Thursday. 

At 05:00 GMT, the MI Inflation Expectations for November remain flat at 3.5% on the data front. From the US side, at 18:30 GMT, the CPI for November rose to 0.2% against the projected 0.1% and supported the US dollar. The Core CPI for November also increased to 0.2% against the forecasted 0.1% and supported the US dollar. The Unemployment Claims from last week raised to 853K against the anticipated 723K and weighed on the US dollar that added gains in AUD/USD pair. Furthermore, the hopes that the US FDA will approve within days using Pfizer’s vaccine also supported the risk sentiment in the market and gave strength to the risk perceived Aussie that ultimately added in the gains of AUD/USD pair.

The rising hopes for quick global economic growth also supported the market’s risk flows after the ECB announced on Thursday that it would expand its bond-buying program by nine months. It also raised the stimulus measure by 500 billion euros that will provide support to the Eurozone economy through the coronavirus pandemic. These updates also supported the risk-sensitive Aussie and helped the pair reach its multi-years highest level on Thursday above 0.7500.


Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

0.7403 0.7486

0.7362 0.7528

0.7320 0.7569

Pivot point: 0.7445

Entry Price – Buy 0.75374

Stop Loss – 0.74974

Take Profit – 0.75774

Risk to Reward – 1:1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

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Categories
Forex Market Analysis

USD/CAD Approaching Trendline Resistance – Can We Setup a Sell Limit?

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.27385 after placing a high of 1.28288 and a low of 1.27064. The USD/CAD pair fell a day before after placing gains for three consecutive days amid the broad-based US dollar weakness and the rising crude oil prices. On Thursday, the USD/CAD pair fell to its lowest since April 2018 after the US dollar became weak across the board. The greenback suffered as its rival currency raised on Thursday amid the release of further stimulus measures from ECB. 

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.27385 after placing a high of 1.28288 and a low of 1.27064. The USD/CAD pair fell a day before after placing gains for three consecutive days amid the broad-based US dollar weakness and the rising crude oil prices. On Thursday, the USD/CAD pair fell to its lowest since April 2018 after the US dollar became weak across the board. The greenback suffered as its rival currency raised on Thursday amid the release of further stimulus measures from ECB. 

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.27385 after placing a high of 1.28288 and a low of 1.27064. The USD/CAD pair fell a day before after placing gains for three consecutive days amid the broad-based US dollar weakness and the rising crude oil prices. On Thursday, the USD/CAD pair fell to its lowest since April 2018 after the US dollar became weak across the board. The greenback suffered as its rival currency raised on Thursday amid the release of further stimulus measures from ECB. 

The ECB extended its bond-buying scheme and issued further stimulus measures on Thursday to support the Eurozone economy from the coronavirus pandemic. The additional support from ECB raised the hopes of the quick economic recovery of the Eurozone economy. It supported the single currency Euro that ultimately added weight to the US dollar. The US dollar was also under pressure as Congress has still not issued a second round of stimulus packages due to Democrats and Republicans’ stalemate over the size of the package. The weak US dollar added weight to the USD/CAD pair on Thursday.

Meanwhile, the Crude oil prices rose by 4.4% to above the $47.7 level on Thursday, and it was the highest level in months. The rising risk sentiment in the market related to vaccine optimism and quick global economic recovery with the release of stimulus measures from big nations added that energy demand would rise, and it supported the Crude oil prices.

On Thursday, the rising crude oil prices added strength in the Canadian dollar that ultimately weighed on the USD/CAD pair and added in its losses.

On the data front, at 18:30 GMT, the CPI for November advanced to 0.2% against the forecasted 0.1% and supported the US dollar. The Core CPI for November also raised to 0.2% against the anticipated 0.1% and supported the US dollar. The Unemployment Claims from last week rose to 853K against the estimated 723K and weighed on the US dollar added in the losses of the USD/CAD pair.

The US dollar was also weak because of the higher unemployment claims last week due to the state governments’ rising number of restrictive measures. The weak US dollar supported the bearish trend in the USD/CAD pair on Thursday. Furthermore, a Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, Paul Beaudry, said that the central bank was monitoring rising housing prices on Thursday. It kept the interest rates low to help the borrowers cope with the coronavirus pandemic. 

Beaudry said that BoC had lowered borrowing costs so that homebuyers can better carry the monthly burden of mortgages. He added that before a bank increases the interest rates, it wants everyone to work on a sustainable basis and the economy back to full capacity. He also stated that a whole set of businesses was on the edge of falling over due to the second wave of coronavirus, although there have not been too many bankruptcies. These comments from Beaudry added strength to the Canadian dollar and weighed on the USD/CAD pair.


Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.2775 1.2843

1.2738 1.2872

1.2708 1.2910

Pivot point: 1.2805

The USD/CAD pair is trading with a bullish bias today at the 1.2778 level, holding below an immediate resistance level of 1.2800. The resistance level is extended by a downward trendline, which suggests odds of selling bias in the market. On the lower side, the support stays at the 1.2722 level while the 50 periods EMA also holds around the 1.2836 level suggesting bearish bias in the market. The MACD is crossing over into the bullish zone, suggesting odds of buying trend continuation in the market. That’s why we are not entering the market right now. Let’s wait for the market to test and close below the 1.28300 area, and then we can take a sell trade. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 11 – Top Trade Setups In Forex on Friday! 

On the news front, eyes will remain on the German Final CPI m/m, which are expected to remain unchanged, and it may not drive any major movement in the market. BOE Gov Bailey is due to hold a press conference about the Financial Stability Report in London. Euro Summit also remains in highlight as the heads of state from the European Union countries are due to discuss the banking union and the capital markets union in Brussels.

On the news front, eyes will remain on the German Final CPI m/m, which are expected to remain unchanged, and it may not drive any major movement in the market. BOE Gov Bailey is due to hold a press conference about the Financial Stability Report in London. Euro Summit also remains in highlight as the heads of state from the European Union countries are due to discuss the banking union and the capital markets union in Brussels.

On the news front, eyes will remain on the German Final CPI m/m, which are expected to remain unchanged, and it may not drive any major movement in the market. BOE Gov Bailey is due to hold a press conference about the Financial Stability Report in London. Euro Summit also remains in highlight as the heads of state from the European Union countries are due to discuss the banking union and the capital markets union in Brussels.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD closed at 1.21215 after placing a high of 1.21588 and a low of 1.20633. After falling for four consecutive days, the EUR/USD pair rose on Thursday amid the European Central Bank’s latest decision.

On Thursday, the European Central Bank held its interest rates on its main refinancing operations at 0.00%, marginal lending facility at 0.25%, and the deposit facility at -0.50%. ECB said that it would continue to monitor the exchange rate’s developments about their possible implications for the medium-term inflation outlook.

The European Central Bank expanded its massive monetary stimulus program by another 500 billion euros as the second wave of lockdown measures weighed on the euro area’s economic recovery. It also expanded the emergency bond purchases scheme for nine months worth 1.85 trillion euros and aimed to keep firms and governments afloat until the economy was ready to re-open.

Central Bank also announced that it would hold the interest rates at the same level until the inflation outlook comes close to its below 2% target. The additional support to the Eurozone economy from ECB added that the Eurozone economy will now recover quickly. These hopes added strength in the single currency Euro that helped EUR/USD pair to post gains on Thursday. Meanwhile, on the Data front, at 12:45 GMT, the French Industrial Production for October raised to 1.6% against the expected 0.4% and supported the single currency Euro. From the U.S. side, at 18:30 GMT, the CPI for November rose to 0.2% against the estimated 0.1% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Core CPI for November also raised to 0.2% against the expected 0.1% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Unemployment Claims from last week rose to 853K against the forecasted 723K and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added strength in the EUR/USD pair on Thursday.

The U.S. dollar was also weak on Thursday as the Unemployment claims rose from their expected level during last week due to increased restrictive measures in the U.S. and supported the EUR/USD pair’s upward trend. Furthermore, the U.S. dollar came under more pressure after releasing additional stimulus by the European Central Bank. The U.S. lawmakers were also unable to sort out disagreements over aid to state and local governments, holding up a broader spending package. The U.S. dollar weakness added further support to the upward momentum of the EUR/USD pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.2044       1.2133

1.2006       1.2186

1.1954       1.2223

Pivot point: 1.2096

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The technical side of the EUR/USD continues to remain the same as the pair is trading at 1.2103 level, facing immediate resistance at 1.2160 and 1.2196 level along with a support level of 1.2085. Closing of candles below the 1.2103 level can send the EUR/USD pair further lower until 1.2080 and 1.2040. Euro Summit will remain in highlights, and the choppy session is expected until the release of the event.

 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.32900 after placing a high of 1.34108 and a low of 1.32453. The GBP/USD pair declined on Thursday as the meeting between PM Boris Johnson and E.U. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen failed to bridge major gaps between them.

PM Boris Johnson offered his ministers to prepare for the strong possibility of a no-deal Brexit. He said that the E.U.’s current offer was unacceptable because the U.K. could not be treated like its twin. He added that the deal offered by the E.U. was not sensible and was unlike any other free trade deal. He said that it was a way of keeping the U.K. locked in the E.U.’s regulatory orbit.

Johnson added a strong possibility that they would have a solution that will be much more like an Australian & Canadian relationship with the E.U. However, after the meeting, the PM Boris Johnson and E.U. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen agreed that a firm decision should be taken about the future of the talks by Sunday. The talks between the E.U.’s top negotiator Michel Barnier and the U.K.’s top negotiator David Frost will resume Brussels. Whereas, Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said that it was unlikely the negotiations would be extended beyond Sunday.

At 05:30 GMT, the RICS House Price Balance from the U.K. raised 66% against the estimated 64% and supported British Pound. At 12:00 GMT, the Construction Output in October declined to 1.0% against the expectations of 1.2%. The Gross Domestic Product from Great Britain in October remained flat with expectations of 0.4%. The Goods Trade Balance from the U.K. showed a deficit of -12.0B against the forecasted -9.6B and weighed on British Pound and added losses in the GBP/USD pair. The Index of Services for the quarter also dropped to 9.7% against the expected 9.8% and weighed on Sterling and added further losses in GBP/USD pair. The Industrial Production in October surged to 1.3% against the expected 0.3% and supported British Pound. The Manufacturing Production for October also raised to 1.7% against the projected 0.3% and supported British Pound. 

At 18:30 GMT, the CPI for November surged to 0.2% against the anticipated 0.1% and supported the U.S. dollar that added pressure on GBP/USD pair. For November, the Core CPI also rose to 0.2% against the anticipated 0.1% and supported the U.S. dollar and added losses on GBP/USD pair. The Unemployment Claims from last week increased to 853K against the anticipated 723K and weighed on the U.S. dollar.

Moreover, the E.U. outlined contingency measures for a no-deal Brexit that reflected significant uncertainty whether a deal would be in place on January 1, 2021. This also raised the expectations that a Brexit deal might not be reached and weighed on GBP/USD pair on Thursday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3338       1.3466

1.3280       1.3536

1.3209       1.3594

Pivot point: 1.3408

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading at the 1.3313 level, holding below an immediate resistance level of 1.3322. On the upper side, the GBP/USD pair can lead to a 1.3390 level, and support stays at 1.3269, which is extended by a double bottom level. Selling bias seems dominant, therefore, we should be looking for a sell trade only upon the violation of 1.3265 level. The lagging technical indicators like 50 EMA is suggesting selling bias, thus we should look for selling trades below 1.3400 and upon breakout 1.3265 level too.   

 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY was closed at 104.212 after placing a high of 104.577 and a low of 104.139. The USD/JPY pair rose in the early trading session on Thursday amid the rising risk sentiment in the market after the stimulus measure from ECB and the vaccine optimism. On Thursday, an independent committee of experts recommended the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to approve the use of Pfizer and BioNtech’s coronavirus vaccine for people over the age of 16. It will be up to the FDA to decide whether to follow the recommendation or not. The agency is anticipated to announce its decision within days, and if it decides to approve the vaccine, then the health care workers could begin receiving the shots almost immediately.

The vaccine optimism in the U.S. raised the risk sentiment in the market as the chances for vaccine approval raised the chance for quick economic recovery and weighed on the safe-haven Japanese Yen, which ultimately added gains in the USD/JPY pair. The European Central Bank announced expanding its debt purchases scheme and further stimulus measures that also added in the market’s risk sentiment and supported the upward trend in the USD/JPY pair after weighing on the safe-haven Japanese Yen.

However, the USD/JPY pair failed to hold its gain on Thursday and started to decline as the U.S. Unemployment claims from last week raised to their highest since September 19 level. The rise in Americans’ jobless claim benefits was due to the states’ increased restrictive measures that halted economic activities. The raised unemployment claims weighed on the U.S. dollar and dragged the USD/JPY pair on the downside. 

On the data front, at 04:50 GMT, the BSI Manufacturing Index for the 4th quarter raised to 21.6 from the expectations of 3.5 and supported the Japanese Yen and weighed on the USD/JPY pair. The Producer Price Index from Japan came in line as expected -2.2%.

From the U.S. side, at 18:30 GMT, the CPI for November rose to 0.2% against the projected 0.1% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Core CPI for November also raised to 0.2% against the estimated 0.1% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Unemployment Claims from last week rose to 853K against the forecasted 723K and weighed on the U.S. dollar that made the USD/JPY pair to lose all of its gains on Thursday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

104.04        104.41

103.86        104.60

103.67        104.78

Pivot Point: 104.23

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY violation of the symmetric triangle pattern at 104.346 faked out as the safe-haven currency pair reversed trade within the same triangle pattern. The current trading range of the USD/JPY pair remains 104.375 – 103.650, and violation of this range can extend the selling trend until the next support area of 103.200 level. Typically, such a triangle pattern can breakout on either side; this, we should be careful before opening any trade. The market is neutral as investors seem to wind up their positions ahead of the December holidays. Good luck

Categories
Forex Signals Uncategorised

EUR/AUD: The Bear Making a Run Again

EUR/AUD has been bearish for the last two days. The pair made a bullish correction on the 15M chart to start its trading day. Then, it made a breakout at yesterday’s lowest low at 1.60920 and had a bounce at 1.60600. The price then consolidated within these two levels. Upon producing a doji candle followed by a bearish engulfing candle the pair made a breakout at the level of 1.60600. An entry has been triggered right after the breakout candle’s closing at 1.60472. The price may make a bearish move up to the level of 1.60472. However, it may find its next support around 1.60080. We may consider taking a partial profit at that level depending on its bearish momentum.

Trade Summary:

Entry: 1.60472

Stop Loss: 1.60872

Take Profit: 1.59372

The risk for the trade per standard lot is $ 300.14, Mini lot $ 30.01 and Micro lot $ 3.00. The risk-reward is 1:2.75. Thus, the reward for the per standard lot is $825.38, Mini lot $ 82.53 and Micro lot $ 8.25.

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Forex Signals

Gold Signal Hit Take Profit – Risk-off Sentiment In Play! 

The yellow metal prices managed to stop its previous day losing streak and took some modest bids around well above the $1,830 level mainly due to the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, which tends to underpin the gold prices as the price of oil is inversely related to the price of the U.S. dollar. However, the sentiment around the U.S. dollar was being pressured by the optimism over the coronavirus vaccine and the probability of U.S. economic stimulus measures, which urge investors towards riskier currencies and higher-yielding assets against the safe-haven asset.

The yellow metal prices managed to stop its previous day losing streak and took some modest bids around well above the $1,830 level mainly due to the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, which tends to underpin the gold prices as the price of oil is inversely related to the price of the U.S. dollar. However, the sentiment around the U.S. dollar was being pressured by the optimism over the coronavirus vaccine and the probability of U.S. economic stimulus measures, which urge investors towards riskier currencies and higher-yielding assets against the safe-haven asset.

The yellow metal prices managed to stop its previous day losing streak and took some modest bids around well above the $1,830 level mainly due to the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, which tends to underpin the gold prices as the price of oil is inversely related to the price of the U.S. dollar. However, the sentiment around the U.S. dollar was being pressured by the optimism over the coronavirus vaccine and the probability of U.S. economic stimulus measures, which urge investors towards riskier currencies and higher-yielding assets against the safe-haven asset.

Across the pond, the downbeat market trading sentiment, driven by the worsening coronavirus (COVID-19) conditions in the U.S. and Europe, also keeps the gold prices well bid. Apart from this, the equity markets’ losses were further bolstered by the US-China tussle, which eventually lends some additional support to the yellow metal prices. On the contrary, the optimism over a possible vaccine and treatment for the highly infectious coronavirus keeps challenging the market risk-off mood, which might cap further upside momentum for the gold prices. The yellow metal prices are currently trading at 1,836.17 and consolidating in the range between 1,833.80 – 1,842.54.

However, the global markets’ sentiment failed to extend its previous-day positive performance and turned sour amid renewed Sino-US tensions and growing coronavirus fears. As per the latest report, America blacklists the Chinese crime boss and some other diplomats from Beijing in an anti-corruption sanction crackdown, which instantly fueled the Sino-US tension and weighed on the market trading sentiment. In addition to this, the U.S. and Europe still not refraining from imposing back-to-back lockdown, which threatening to undermine economic recovery as lockdown restrictions tend to have an instant negative effect on economic activities. In the meantime, the lingering uncertainty over the Brexit trade talks also exerted downside pressure on the global equity market. Thus, all these factors weigh on the market trading sentiment, which could be considered the main factors for the gold on-going bullish moves.

Despite the risk-off-market sentiment, the broad-based U.S. dollar failed to stop its previous session declining streak and remained bearish on the day as doubts persist over the global economic recovery from COVID-19. Furthermore, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s expectations of further monetary easing also weigh on the U.S. dollar. Besides this, the encouraging data from COVID-19 vaccine developers urge investors towards riskier currencies and higher-yielding assets against the safe-haven asset, which eventually leads to losses in the safe-haven U.S. dollar. However, the U.S. dollar losses become the key factor that kept the gold prices higher as the price of oil is inversely related to the price of the U.S. dollar. Meantime, the U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a bucket of other currencies dropped to 91.052.

In contrast, the losses in the global risk sentiment were capped by the latest reports suggesting that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) will meet later in the day to talk about BNT162b2, the COVID-19 vaccine co-developed by Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) and BioNTech SE (F:22UAy). While Canada also approved its first COVID-19 vaccine on Wednesday and said inoculations would start next week, which also helps the market sentiment limit its deeper losses.


Daily Support and Resistance

S1 1838.47

S2 1853.58

S3 1861.99

Pivot Point 1868.69

R1 1877.1

R2 1883.8

R3 1898.91

Gold prices dropped amid the greenback’s strength versus another important trading instrument in the nonexistence of any further U.S. fiscal incentive to support the rollback within the coronavirus pandemic. Gold is currently trading at the 1,836 mark, facing immediate resistance at the 1,851 level along with a support level of 1,828 and 1,824. The U.S. Inflation data may help determine further gold trends now; nonetheless, the technical side seems bearish today.

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Forex Signals

AUD/USD Bullish Channel Underpins – Signal Outlook!

The AUD/USD pair is trading with a bullish bias at the 0.7486 level, heading upward until the next target level of 0.7520 level. The risk-sensitive AUD experienced following Britain’s top medical expert urged people with notable allergies to not utilize the coronavirus vaccine from Pfizer and BioNtech as it will give them an unfavorable response. This information came in after two people were advised to have drastic consequences from coronavirus vaccine usage.

The AUD/USD pair is trading with a bullish bias at the 0.7486 level, heading upward until the next target level of 0.7520 level. The risk-sensitive AUD experienced following Britain’s top medical expert urged people with notable allergies to not utilize the coronavirus vaccine from Pfizer and BioNtech as it will give them an unfavorable response. This information came in after two people were advised to have drastic consequences from coronavirus vaccine usage.

The AUD/USD pair is trading with a bullish bias at the 0.7486 level, heading upward until the next target level of 0.7520 level. The risk-sensitive AUD experienced following Britain’s top medical expert urged people with notable allergies to not utilize the coronavirus vaccine from Pfizer and BioNtech as it will give them an unfavorable response. This information came in after two people were advised to have drastic consequences from coronavirus vaccine usage.

This news deteriorated the risk sentiment and weighed on risk-sensitive Aussie that made the AUD/USD pair to lose some of its early daily gains. The rising number of coronavirus cases in the US surpassed the 15M daily on average; about 200,000 people were reported as positive for coronavirus infection in the US. These pandemic developments faded hopes for quick economic recovery despite vaccine development progress and weighed on the US dollar that added gains in the AUD/USD pair.

Meanwhile, China’s macro-economic data was also released on Wednesday but failed to give a decisive move to the pair AUD/USD as the data gave mixed results. The CPI from China dropped to -0.5% against the expected 0.0% and weighed on China-proxy Aussie. The PPI from China dropped less than expectations of -1.8% at -1.5% and supported the China-proxy Aussie. The New Loans from China dropped to 1430B from the expected 1450B and weighed on China-proxy Aussie that capped further gains in the AUD/USD pair on Wednesday.


Daily Technical Levels:
Support Resistance
0.7401 0.7478
0.7366 0.7520
0.7323 0.7555
Pivot point: 0.7443

On the technical front, the AUD/USD is trading bullish at the 0.7487 level, facing next resistance near 0.7485. The bullish moves can prolong the buying trend to the next resistance area of 0.7525 level in the higher direction. On the 4 hour timeframe, the AUD/USD has developed an upward channel that holds the buying trend. Thus we have begun a buying trade in the AUD/USD pair today.

Entry Price – Buy 0.74844
Stop Loss – 0.74444
Take Profit – 0.75244
Risk to Reward – 1:1
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40
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Forex Signals

USD/CAD Sideways Channel Remains Intact – Brace to Trade Breakout! 

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.28179 after placing a high of 1.28332 and a low of 1.27691. The USD/CAD pair was choppy on Wednesday as it dropped to weekly lows in the early session but recovered all of its losses in the late session. The Bank of Canada released its interest rate decision on Wednesday that drove the USD/CAD pair lower in early trading hours. Later the crude oil prices and the strength of the US dollar pushed the pair higher on board.

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.28179 after placing a high of 1.28332 and a low of 1.27691. The USD/CAD pair was choppy on Wednesday as it dropped to weekly lows in the early session but recovered all of its losses in the late session. The Bank of Canada released its interest rate decision on Wednesday that drove the USD/CAD pair lower in early trading hours. Later the crude oil prices and the strength of the US dollar pushed the pair higher on board.

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.28179 after placing a high of 1.28332 and a low of 1.27691. The USD/CAD pair was choppy on Wednesday as it dropped to weekly lows in the early session but recovered all of its losses in the late session. The Bank of Canada released its interest rate decision on Wednesday that drove the USD/CAD pair lower in early trading hours. Later the crude oil prices and the strength of the US dollar pushed the pair higher on board.

On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada held rates at 0.25% and reiterated intentions to keep interest rates at the same level until at least 2023 as the Canadian economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic was proceeding in line with the expectations.

The Bank said that the new infections and lockdowns continue to hold back the Canadian economy. Bank also mentioned that stronger demand for energy sources had pushed oil prices to boost the Canadian dollar. As well, the looming vaccines rolling out were also helping the Canadian dollar.

The Bank of Canada said that the news on the development of effective vaccines provided reassurance that the pandemic will end and more normal activities will resume, although the pace and breadth of the global rollout of vaccinations remain uncertain. However, there were no surprises on Wednesday from the Bank of Canada that weighed on Loonie and supported the upward trend in the USD/CAD pair.

Meanwhile, the declining crude oil prices on Wednesday after the release of US Crude oil stockpiles data weighed on Loonie. For the last week, the US crude oil inventories raised to 15.2M against the expectations of -0.9M and weighed on crude oil prices that added losses in the commodity-linked currency Loonie and supported the upward momentum in the USD/CAD pair.

Moreover, the US dollar was also strong on Wednesday amid multiple reasons, including deteriorated risk sentiment from Pfizer’s vaccine adverse reaction on two people, faded hopes for quick delivery of second round of US stimulus measure, and the rising safe-haven demand after the increased number of coronavirus cases in the US. The strong US dollar also helped the USD/CAD pair’s gains to persist in the market on Wednesday.

On the data front, at 20:00 GMT, the Final Wholesale Inventories for October raised to 1.1% against the projected 0.9% and weighed on the US dollar. The JOLTS Job Opening for October also surged to 6.65M against the estimated 6.30M and supported the US dollar that added further gains in the USD/CAD pair. On the data front, at 20:00 GMT, the Final Wholesale Inventories for October raised to 1.1% against the projected 0.9% and weighed on the US dollar. The JOLTS Job Opening for October also surged to 6.65M against the estimated 6.30M and supported the US dollar that added further gains in the USD/CAD pair.


Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.2787 1.2852

1.2745 1.2875

1.2722 1.2917

Pivot point: 1.2810

The USD/CAD pair is trading sideways at the 1.2789 level due to a lack of market volatility. On the lower side, the support holds around the 1.2770 level, whereas the bullish trend continuation can extend the buying trend until the next resistance level of 1.2835. We may not see a further trend in the pair until this range gets violated. On the lower side, a bearish breakout of the 1.2770 level can extend selling bias until the 1.2720 level. It seems like investors are waiting for a solid fundamental to determine further moves in the market. Let’s look for selling below 1.2836 and buying over 1.2770 level today. Good luck! 

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 10 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eyes on ECB Policy Decision! 

On the news front, it’s going to be an important day for the Euro and U.S. dollar as investors await the Main Refinancing Rate and the U.S. CPI figures during the European and the U.S. session. The ECB monetary policy decision, especially the Main Refinancing Rate, is expected to remain unchanged while the Inflation figures can support the U.S. dollar today.

On the news front, it’s going to be an important day for the Euro and U.S. dollar as investors await the Main Refinancing Rate and the U.S. CPI figures during the European and the U.S. session. The ECB monetary policy decision, especially the Main Refinancing Rate, is expected to remain unchanged while the Inflation figures can support the U.S. dollar today.

On the news front, it’s going to be an important day for the Euro and U.S. dollar as investors await the Main Refinancing Rate and the U.S. CPI figures during the European and the U.S. session. The ECB monetary policy decision, especially the Main Refinancing Rate, is expected to remain unchanged while the Inflation figures can support the U.S. dollar today.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.20811 after placing a high of 1.21471 and a low of 1.20585. On Wednesday, the currency pair EUR/USD continued its bearish trend for the fourth consecutive day amid the deteriorated risk sentiment and higher U.S. yields that supported the greenback. The U.S. dollar was strong on Wednesday as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rose above the 91.00 level, which was the highest in two days. The coronavirus situation in the U.S. has escalated to an alarming level as more than 200,000 Americans tested positive for the coronavirus every day on average. The total number of infections in the U.S. has surpassed 15 million.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, warned on Monday that the country was likely to see a Thanksgiving-related spike in coronavirus cases and hospitalizations in another week or so, in the middle of Hanukkah and just ahead of Christmas. The rising number of coronavirus cases in the U.S. raised the appeal for safe-haven and supported the greenback that ultimately added losses in EUR/USD pair.

Meanwhile, another reason for the continuous losses in the EUR/USD pair was the latest news from Great Britain about the coronavirus vaccine. On Wednesday, Britain’s health officials warned people with significant allergies to avoid receiving the Pfizer-BioNtech vaccine as two people reported an adverse reaction.

On the data front, at 12:00 GMT, the German Trade Balance for October showed a surplus of 18.2B against the expected 18.7B and weighed on Euro. From the U.S. side, at 20:00 GMT, the Final Wholesale Inventories for October surged to 1.1% against the forecasted 0.9% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The JOLTS Job Opening for October also rose to 6.65M against the expected 6.30M and supported the U.S. dollar that added further losses in EUR/USD pair.

The U.S. dollar was also strong onboard after the hopes for further stimulus package were diminished with the White House’s latest proposal. Steven Mnuchin submitted a proposal on Wednesday worth $916 billion. The offer included only $40 billion towards unemployment benefits that were far less than the amount proposed in the package from a bipartisan group of lawmakers worth $180 billion. Democrats rejected the proposal as they have been trying since the CARES ACT for additional financial aid for laid-off workers.

This new proposal from the Trump administration gave mixed signals in the market. Some believed that the stalemate between Republicans & Democrats would remain intact for long to reach a deal. Others believed that the White House has reengaged in talks for the first time since the election and that it was a positive sign that a compromise could be reached before the end of the year. All the stimulus uncertainty added strength to the U.S. dollar and weighed on the riskier EUR/USD pair on Wednesday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.2042     1.2131

1.2006     1.2184

1.1954     1.2220

Pivot point: 1.2095

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The technical side of the EUR/USD continues to remain the same as the pair is trading at 1.2103 level, facing immediate resistance at 1.2160 and 1.2196 level along with a support level of 1.2085. Closing of candles below the 1.2103 level can send the EUR/USD pair further lower until 1.2080 and 1.2040. However, the focus is likely to stay on the ECB monetary policy decision, especially the Main Refinancing Rate, which is expected to remain unchanged. The choppy session is expected until the release of the ECB report.

 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.34060 after placing a high of 1.34778 and a low of 1.33455. The GBP/USD pair ended its day in positive territory on Wednesday and climbed above 1.34700 as the final round of talks between UK PM Boris Johnson and the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen started.

Ahead of the talks, the U.K. Pm Boris Johnson said that the E.U. insisted on terms that no prime minister could accept in EU-UK trade talks. The PM said that a good deal was still there to be done as the E.U. sought an automatic right to retaliate against the U.K. if its labor and environmental standards diverge from theirs. PM Boris Johnson also said that the E.U. could not accept the U.K. as having sovereign control over its fishing waters after Brexit. Major disagreements remain over fisheries, business competition rules, and governance issues.

PM Boris Johnson said that a deal would not be possible if the E.U. insisted that if a new law is passed in the future and if the U.K. did not follow suit, then the E.U. wanted an automatic right to punish the U.K. and retaliate. He also claimed that the E.U. wanted the U.K. to become the only country in the world not to have sovereign control over its fishing waters. He said that he would not believe that any prime minister of this country could accept under these terms. However, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has said that a Brexit deal was still possible but insisted that the E.U. single market’s integrity must be respected.

On Wednesday, PM Boris Johnson arrived in Brussels to find common grounds on significant differences that have stalled the talks for eight months. Over the past couple of days, the optimism has increased that a deal might reach as both sides have successfully reached a post-Brexit arrangement in principle over the Irish border. This optimism kept the British Pound on the upside ahead of the talks and pushed the GBP/USD pair higher. Both sides have confirmed that these final talks’ decision will be revealed on Sunday, and this statement forced investors to lose some of its early daily gains.

Meanwhile, on the USD front, the U.S. dollar was strong across the board. The risk sentiment deteriorated, and safe-haven appeal emerged after the rising number of coronavirus cases posted global economic recovery threats despite the vaccine development. The total number of infections in the U.S. surpassed 15 million on Wednesday, and it was reported that almost 200,000 Americans were tested positive for coronavirus every day in the U.S.

Furthermore, the British Pound lost some of its gains in the late trading session on Wednesday after Britain’s top medical adviser warned people with significant allergies to avoid having Pfizer and BioNtech’s vaccine shots as they could give an adverse reaction. On Wednesday, two people were reported to have an adverse reaction to Pfizer’s coronavirus vaccine in Great Britain and weighed on the local currency that capped further gains in GBP/USD pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3301     1.3453

1.3236     1.3542

1.3148     1.3606

Pivot point: 1.3389

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading at 1.3378, holding below an immediate resistance level of 1.3395. On the higher side, the GBP/USD pair can lead to a 1.3437 level, and support stays at 1.3340, which is extended by an upward trendline. Overall it’s an ascending triangle, and it typically breaks on the higher side; thus, we can expect the GBP/USD price to move until 1.3435.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 104.231 after placing a high of 104.403 and a low of 104.050. USD/JPY pair extended its gains for the second consecutive day on Wednesday as the U.S. dollar gained traction on the day. The hopes for the second round of massive stimulus package from Congress decreased n Wednesday after the Trump administration came up with a new proposal. The U.S. Secretary State Steven Mnuchin submitted a new proposal for an economic relief package that would offer far fewer unemployment benefits than what has been offered by a bipartisan group of lawmakers.

The unemployment benefits for millions of jobless Americans would be delivered as $180 billion under the framework proposed by a bipartisan group of lawmakers. But in contrast to this, the new package submitted by the Trump administration included $40billion in new funding for unemployment benefits.

The bipartisan effort of $908 billion packages has brought the Democrats and Republicans closer to a compromise on a coronavirus package. However, the new White House proposal of $916 billion was a sharp rejection from Democrats as the White House’s proposal was strongly criticized by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer in a joint statement.

Meanwhile, on Wednesday, the U.S. House of Representatives agreed on a one-week extension of federal government funding that would give lawmakers more time to agree on a massive coronavirus relief package. However, the Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell said that lawmakers were still looking forward to a relief package.

These developments raised the uncertainty related to the U.S. stimulus package, supported the U.S. dollar, and supported the USD/JPY pair’s upward trend.

Meanwhile, on the data front, At 04:50 GMT, the Core Machinery Orders for October raised to 17.1% against the forecasted 2.6% and supported the Japanese Yen. The M2 Money stock for the year from Japan also raised to 9.1% against the estimated 8.9% and supported the Japanese yen that capped further gains in the USD/JPY pair.

On the U.S. front, at 20:00 GMT, the Final Wholesale Inventories for October rose to 1.1% against the anticipated 0.9% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The JOLTS Job Opening for October also raised to 6.65M against the projected 6.30M and supported the U.S. dollar that added further gains in the USD/JPY pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

104.10      104.44

103.90      104.60

103.75      104.79

Pivot point: 104.25

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY has violated the symmetric triangle pattern at 104.346, and it opens further odds of buying until the 104.750 level. The pair has recently disrupted the sideways trading series of 104.200 – 103850. Now it’s trading at 104.300 level, especially after bouncing off over 103.700 level on the lower side, supporting the pair nearby 103.700 mark. On the downside, the USD/JPY may find support at the 103.200 level upon a bearish breakout of the 103.750 support level. While resistance stays at 104.700 today. Good luck

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave Forex Market Analysis

GBPUSD Ending Diagonal Completion a Warning Sign for a Trend Reversal?

In our last GBPUSD analysis, we discussed its upward advance in an incomplete ending diagonal pattern. We said that the terminal Elliott wave formation progressed in its fifth wave of Minuette degree identified in blue that belongs to a wave ((c)) of Minute degree labeled in black. Likewise, the wave ((c)) corresponds to the third internal segment of the wave B of Minor degree identified in green. 

In our last GBPUSD analysis, we discussed its upward advance in an incomplete ending diagonal pattern. We said that the terminal Elliott wave formation progressed in its fifth wave of Minuette degree identified in blue that belongs to a wave ((c)) of Minute degree labeled in black. Likewise, the wave ((c)) corresponds to the third internal segment of the wave B of Minor degree identified in green. 

In our last GBPUSD analysis, we discussed its upward advance in an incomplete ending diagonal pattern. We said that the terminal Elliott wave formation progressed in its fifth wave of Minuette degree identified in blue that belongs to a wave ((c)) of Minute degree labeled in black. Likewise, the wave ((c)) corresponds to the third internal segment of the wave B of Minor degree identified in green. 

Technical Overview

The big picture unveiled the sideways movement in an incomplete corrective formation, which could correspond to an expanding flat pattern. In this regard, after the completion of wave B, the Sterling should start developing wave C, which should lead to a decline of this major pair in a five-wave internal sequence.

On the other hand, the following 8-hour chart reveals the market participants’ sentiment unfolded by the 90-day high and low range, which looks advancing in the extreme bullish sentiment zone. 

The previous chart illustrates the bullish failure in the Wednesday trading session, which couldn’t strike the last high of 1.35394. This failure added to the breakdown of the previous upward trendline plotted in green leads us to expect further declines in the coming trading sessions, likely to the ascending primary trend-line identified in blue.

Short-term Technical Outlook

The intraday Elliott wave view for the GBPUSD pair displayed by the following 2-hour chart exposes the breakdown of the ending diagonal pattern formed on December 07th, confirming the completion of the terminal formation unveiled in the wave ((c)) identified in black. 

Once the Pound found the intraday support at 1.32238, the price action began to bounce in an internal corrective rally subdivided in a three-wave sequence corresponding to wave ((ii)) in black, founding resistance at 1.34779 on the Wednesday trading session.

In this regard, the breakdown of the intraday trend-line that connects the waves ((i)) and (b) should confirm the downward progress of its wave ((iii)) in black, which according to the Elliott wave theory, should be the largest wave of the downward sequence.

The third wave in black could find support in the demand zone between 1.31296 and 1.31064. If the price action continues deteriorating, the Cable could drop toward the next demand zone between 1.29843 and 1.29144.

Summarizing

After the GBPUSD pair made a breakdown of its ending diagonal pattern, is currently moving in a corrective rally corresponding to wave ((ii)), which should give way to a new decline corresponding to the third wave of Minute degree. According to the textbook, this movement should be the largest decline of the current downward sequence and could find support in the demand zone between 1.31296 and 1.31064. Finally, the invalidation level of the current bearish scenario can be found at 1.35394.

Categories
Forex Signals

USD/CAD Trades Descending Triangle – Traders Loom for a Breakout!

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.28286 after placing a high of 1.28254 and a low of 1.27678. The USD/CAD pair was raised on Tuesday due to declining crude oil prices and improving the market’s risk sentiment. The risk sentiment in the market surged on Tuesday after a combination of supporting factors. The rising hopes for global economic recovery after the latest news that Great Britain has officially started using Pfizer coronavirus vaccine to treat coronavirus patients on Tuesday added to the market’s risk sentiment.

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.28286 after placing a high of 1.28254 and a low of 1.27678. The USD/CAD pair was raised on Tuesday due to declining crude oil prices and improving the market’s risk sentiment. The risk sentiment in the market surged on Tuesday after a combination of supporting factors. The rising hopes for global economic recovery after the latest news that Great Britain has officially started using Pfizer coronavirus vaccine to treat coronavirus patients on Tuesday added to the market’s risk sentiment.

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.28286 after placing a high of 1.28254 and a low of 1.27678. The USD/CAD pair was raised on Tuesday due to declining crude oil prices and improving the market’s risk sentiment. The risk sentiment in the market surged on Tuesday after a combination of supporting factors. The rising hopes for global economic recovery after the latest news that Great Britain has officially started using Pfizer coronavirus vaccine to treat coronavirus patients on Tuesday added to the market’s risk sentiment.

Another factor involved in the risk mood enhancement was the rising demand for a US coronavirus stimulus package. The continuous talks between Democrats and the Republicans over the stimulus package and the agreement of both sides over a bipartisan proposal of a $908 billion package also supported the market’s risk sentiment as it will enhance the US economic recovery.

Meanwhile, the latest comments from the foreign minister of China, Wang Yi, that Beijing was open to restarting its relationship with the US also added to the market’s risk flows. Wang declared that a year of escalating tensions between both countries had pushed them to a critical historical juncture. He also said the time has come that objectivity and rationality should bring back in the US policy towards China.

He stated that both sides should restart the dialogues and get back on the right track to rebuilding mutual trust in the next Sino-US relations phase. Wang blamed some Americans’ outdated Cold War mentality for the growing division between the US and China. The raised risk sentiment helped the USD/CAD pair rose for the second consecutive day.

On the data front, at 01:00 GMT, the Consumer Credit for October from the US fell to 7.2B against the estimated 17.6B and weighed on the US dollar. At 16:00 GMT, the NFIB Business Index declined to 101.4 against the anticipated 102.6 in November and weighed on the US dollar that capped further gains in the USD/CAD pair. At 18:30 GMT, the Revised Nonfarm Productivity for the quarter declined to 4.6% against the projected 4.9% and supported the US dollar and supported the USD/CAD pair’s an upward trend. The Revised Unit Labor Costs for the quarter grew in as -6.6% against the projected -8.9%, supported the US dollar and pushed the pair on the upside. At 20:00 GMT, the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism came in as 49.0 in December compared to the previous 50.0.

Meanwhile, the USD/CAD pair’s gains were also supported by the declining Crude oil prices on Tuesday. The Crude oil prices posted losses on Tuesday and reached $45.13 on the day ahead of the American Petroleum Institute’s weekly crude oil stock data. The declining crude oil prices weighed on commodity-linked currency Loonie and ultimately added strength in the USD/CAD pair.

Furthermore, the Canadian dollar was also under pressure on Tuesday ahead of Wednesday’s Bank of Canada policy meeting. The central bank is expected to hold its interest rates at the same level, but the bank’s tone could affect the Canadian dollar as a positive message will act as a vote of confidence in the economy and support the local currency and vice versa.


Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.2777 1.2839

1.2740 1.2864

1.2715 1.2901

Pivot point: 1.2802

The USD/CAD pair is trading sideways at the 1.2789 level due to a lack of market volatility. On the lower side, the support holds around the 1.2770 level, whereas the bullish trend continuation can extend the buying trend until the next resistance level of 1.2835. We may not see a further trend in the pair until this range gets violated. On the lower side, a bearish breakout of the 1.2770 level can extend selling bias until the 1.2720 level. It seems like investors are waiting for a solid fundamental to determine further moves in the market. Let’s look for selling below 1.2836 and buying over 1.2770 level today. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

USD/CHF Violates Descending Triangle Pattern – Brace for a Sell Signal! 

During Wednesday’s trading session, the USD/CHF currency pair failed to stop its previous-day bearish bias and remained pessimistic around below the 0.8900 level. However, the reason for the bearish tone around the currency pair could be associated with the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness. The U.S. dollar was being pressured by the optimism over the potential vaccine for the hazardous coronavirus infection, which urges investors to retreat from the safe-haven assets. 

During Wednesday’s trading session, the USD/CHF currency pair failed to stop its previous-day bearish bias and remained pessimistic around below the 0.8900 level. However, the reason for the bearish tone around the currency pair could be associated with the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness. The U.S. dollar was being pressured by the optimism over the potential vaccine for the hazardous coronavirus infection, which urges investors to retreat from the safe-haven assets. 

During Wednesday’s trading session, the USD/CHF currency pair failed to stop its previous-day bearish bias and remained pessimistic around below the 0.8900 level. However, the reason for the bearish tone around the currency pair could be associated with the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness. The U.S. dollar was being pressured by the optimism over the potential vaccine for the hazardous coronavirus infection, which urges investors to retreat from the safe-haven assets. 

Apart from this, the U.S. dollar losses could also be attributed to the on-going concerns of further monetary easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which adds burden around the U.S. dollar and contributes to the currency pair losses. On the contrary, the upbeat market sentiment boosted investors’ confidence and undermined the safe-haven Swiss Franc, which, in turn, was seen as one of the leading factors that help the USD/CHF currency pair to limit its deeper losses. Currently, the USD/CHF currency pair is currently trading at 0.8879 and consolidating in the range between 0.8871 – 0.8897.

The equity market had been flashing green since the Asian session started. The reason could be associated with the major positive catalysts. Be it the renewed probabilities of the U.S. aid package or optimism over treatment for the highly infectious coronavirus, both factors have favored the market trading sentiment. Therefore, the risk-on market mood tends to undermine the safe-haven Swiss franc, which becomes the key factor that lends some support to the currency pair to ease the intraday bearish pressure surrounding the USD/CHF currency pair.

The hopes of potential vaccines were further boosted after the U.K.’s has started vaccination, witnessed after the 1st-patients inoculated with BNT162b2, the COVID-19 vaccine co-developed by Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) and BioNTech SE (F:22UAy). In addition to this, the sentiment around the equity market was improved further after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told that the stimulus discussions had made good progress. Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin offers a larger amount than the previously highlighted $908 billion for the stimulus package. 

At the USD front, the broad-based U.S. dollar failed to stop its bearish trend and remained depressed on the day as doubts persist over the U.S. economic recovery from COVID-19. Besides this, the risk-on market sentiment, backed by the optimism over a potential vaccine for the highly contagious coronavirus disease, also played its major role in undermining the safe-haven U.S. dollar. Besides this, the U.S. dollar losses could also be attributed to the concerns of further monetary easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which tends to undermine the American currency. However, the losses in the U.S. dollar becomes the key factor that kept the currency pair lower. Meantime, the U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a bucket of other currencies, dropped to 90.778.

Conversely, the optimism around the equity market was slightly unaffected by the intensifying market worries regarding the continuous surge in new coronavirus cases in the U.S. and Europe, which fueled the global economic recovery concerns imposing new lockdown restrictions on economic and social activity. Furthermore, the equity market gains were also capped by the lingering uncertainty over the Brexit deal and intensified China-US tussles over the U.S. sanctions on Chinese diplomats and the arrest of the Hong Kong opposition party members by police.

Moving ahead, the market traders will keep their eyes on the U.S. stimulus headlines and vaccine news. In the meantime, the updates surrounding the Brexit trade talks and the Sino-US tussle could not lose their importance on the day.

Daily Support and Resistance

S1 0.8767

S2 0.8839

S3 0.8874

Pivot Point 0.8911

R1 0.8946

R2 0.8982

R3 0.9054

Technically, the USD/CHF pair is gaining support above the 0.8875 mark, and it’s triggered an upward wave to achieve a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement mark of 0.8935. On the further higher front, an upward movement and violation of 0.8933 mark can drive more buying trend unto next Fibo level of 61.8% at 0.8965. However, the pair has formed a descending triangle pattern which, if violated, can send the pair until the 0.8835 level. Check out a trading plan below. 

Entry Price – Sell 0.88778

Stop Loss – 0.89178

Take Profit – 0.88378

Risk to Reward – 1:1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.

iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368

Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 09 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Brace for BOC Policy! 

On the news front, the economic calendar is filled with the Bank of Canada’s policy rate. The BOC is expected to keep the Overnight Rate rate unchanged at 0.25%, which is likely to drive no major change in the Loonie. The BOC Rate Statement will be worth watching to determine further moves in CAD.

On the news front, the economic calendar is filled with the Bank of Canada’s policy rate. The BOC is expected to keep the Overnight Rate rate unchanged at 0.25%, which is likely to drive no major change in the Loonie. The BOC Rate Statement will be worth watching to determine further moves in CAD.

On the news front, the economic calendar is filled with the Bank of Canada’s policy rate. The BOC is expected to keep the Overnight Rate rate unchanged at 0.25%, which is likely to drive no major change in the Loonie. The BOC Rate Statement will be worth watching to determine further moves in CAD.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD closed at 1.21044 after placing a high of 1.21337 and a low of 1.20952. EUR/USD pair fell on Tuesday for the third consecutive session but remained under consolidation in a tight range. The EUR/USD pair avoided major losses as the Euro remained appealing due to broad weakness in the U.S. dollar. The U.S. Dollar Index fell to its two and a half years lowest level on Tuesday and capped further losses in the EUR/USD pair. The U.S. dollar was weak on Tuesday as the country crossed the threshold of 15 million coronavirus cases, which was the world’s highest total. American hospitals braced to ration care amid staff shortages and warned about the rampant spread of the disease.

Pennsylvania’s governor Tom Wolf said that the coronavirus was running extensively throughout the state and could soon reach the level where hospitals will begin turning away patients. He also said that additional pandemic restrictions might be on controlling the spread of the virus.

Meanwhile, the talks for the second round of coronavirus relief stimulus between Democrats and the Republicans and the agreement of both parties over the bipartisan proposal of a $908 billion stimulus package also weighed on the U.S. dollar. Due to stimulus hopes and the rising number of coronavirus cases, the weak U.S. dollar capped further downside in the EUR/USD pair on Tuesday.

On the data front, at 11:30 GMT, the French Final Private Payrolls for the quarter raised to 1.6% against the expected -1.0% and supported the single currency Euro. At 12:45 GMT, the French Trade Balance showed a deficit of -4.8B against the expected -5.5B and supported Euro. At 15:00 GMT, the quarter raised the Final Employment Change to 1.0% against the forecasted 0.9% and supported Euro. The Revised GDP for the quarter dropped to 12.5% against the expected 12.6% and weighed on Euro. The ZEW Economic Sentiment raised in December to 54.4 against the estimated 37.5 and supported Euro. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment also surged to 55.0 from the projected 45.9 and supported Euro.

From the U.S. side, at 01:00 GMT, the Consumer Credit for October fell to 7.2B against the projected 17.6B and weighed on the U.S. dollar and capped further losses in EUR/USD pair. At 16:00 GMT, the NFIB Business Index fell to 101.4 against the estimated 102.6 in November and weighed on the U.S. dollar that capped further losses in the EUR/USD pair.

At 18:30 GMT, the Revised Nonfarm Productivity for the quarter declined to 4.6% against the expected 4.9% and supported the U.S. dollar and supported the downward momentum in EUR/USD pair. The Revised Unit Labor Costs for the quarter came in as -6.6% against the estimated -8.9% and supported the U.S. dollar. 

At 20:00 GMT, the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism came in as 49.0 in December compared to the previous 50.0.

Moreover, the Euro remained comparatively appealing due to a more optimistic outlook of the Eurozone’s economy than the U.S. that capped further losses in the EUR/USD pair. The ECB’s policy decision is scheduled for Thursday. If the ECB takes a more hawkish tone, then Euro will rise and vice versa.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.2086        1.2125

1.2071       1.2149

1.2046       1.2165

Pivot point: 1.2110

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is trading at 1.2127 level, finding an immediate resistance at 1.2160 and 1.2196 level along with a support level of 1.2085. Closing of candles underneath the 1.2103 level can send the EUR/USD pair further lower until 1.2080 and 1.2040. However, the focus is likely to stay on the German Trade Balance, which is due during the European session. Choppy session expected until economic figures show major deviations. The MACD is mixed, suggesting bearish; therefore, the idea will be to open a sell trade below the 1.2175 level today to capture quick green pips. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair closed at 1.33564 after placing a high of 1.33935 and a low of 1.32894. The GBP/USD pair fell on Tuesday for the third consecutive day amid the rising Brexit uncertainty that took its toll on British Pound. The mixed comments from various officials from both sides raised the uncertainty in the market related to the Brexit deal and weighed on British Pound. The British Cabinet Minister Michael Gove announced that they had reached an agreement in principle. The E.U.’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier told European ministers that a deal’s chances were very thin. At the same time, German Minister Michael Roth said there was no substantial progress in the trade talks between the E.U. and the U.K. He added that it was uncertain whether Britain and the E.U. could reach a trade deal.

All this uncertainty in the market weighed on the British Pound and dragged the pair GBP/USD on the downside. Another factor involved in the GBP/USD pair’s downward momentum was the latest move by the U.K. government to drop parts of its controversial internal market bill that paved the way for both sides to meet in Brussels on Wednesday to settle an agreement.

The U.K. government reached a post-Brexit arrangement in principle over the Irish border with the European Union after agreeing to ditch the most controversial parts of its internal markets bill. On Tuesday, the U.K. government said that it would abandon all the Brexit clauses relating to Northern Ireland in the internal market bill in exchange for promises by the E.U. to minimize checks and control due to being imposed on food and medicines going into Northern Ireland from Great Britain from January 01.

A deal on Ireland is reached between the E.U. and the U.K. it was not one of the key sticking points that have held the Brexit talks hostage. The Brexit talks will enter a last decisive phase from Wednesday as the PM Boris Johnson has prepared to travel to Brussels on that day to secure a deal over the European Union’s relations with the U.K. If he failed to reach an agreement with the E.U. It would mean that from the start of next year, the tariffs would be applied to some trade between the U.K. and the E.U. for the first time in almost half a century. U.K. sends almost 43% of its exports to the trade bloc E.U. and tariffs on its exports will be harmful to its economy. Failure to reach a deal will also end many cooperation types between the U.K. and the E.U. over crime, security, and travel.

The British Pound remains under pressure on Tuesday ahead of the final round of talks between PM Johnson and E.U. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Wednesday. On the data front, at 05:01 GMT, the BRC Retail Sales Monitor for the Year raised to 7.7%against the forecasted 5.0% and supported British Pound, and capped further losses in GBP/USD pair.

From the U.S. side, at 01:00 GMT, the Consumer Credit for October declined to 7.2B against the estimated 17.6B and weighed on the U.S. dollar. At 16:00 GMT, the NFIB Business Index declined to 101.4 against the expected 102.6 in November and weighed on the U.S. dollar.

At 18:30 GMT, the Revised Nonfarm Productivity for the quarter fell to 4.6% against the expected 4.9% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Revised Unit Labor Costs for the quarter came in as -6.6% against the projected -8.9% and supported the U.S. dollar. At 20:00 GMT, the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism came in as 49.0 in December compared to the previous 50.0.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3297       1.3400

1.3242       1.3448

1.3193       1.3504

Pivot point: 1.3345

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading at 1.3378, holding below an immediate resistance level of 1.3395. On the higher side, the GBP/USD pair can lead to a 1.3437 level, and support stays at 1.3340, which is extended by an upward trendline. Overall it’s an ascending triangle, and it typically breaks on the higher side; thus, we can expect the GBP/USD price to move until 1.3435.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair closed at 104.161 after placing a high of 104.204 and a low of 103.953. The pair posted gains on Tuesday as the market’s risk sentiment improved due to a combination of factors.

The news that Great Britain has started using the Pfizer vaccine on patients from Tuesday increased the risk-on sentiment as the hopes for economic recovery increased. Another factor involved in the rising risk-on sentiment was the rising hopes that the U.S. will soon deliver the second round of stimulus measures.

On late Monday, the Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, said that Beijing was open to restarting its relationship with the U.S. He also declared that both countries were at a critical historical stage after a year of intensifying tensions. Wang said that U.S. policy on China needed to return to objectivity and rationality. He also said that both sides should struggle to restart the dialogue and get back on the right track and rebuild mutual trust in the next Sino-US relations phase. Wang blamed the growing division between the world’s two biggest economies on some Americans with outdated Cold War mentality and ideological preconceptions. All these developments in vaccine usage, rising hopes for stimulus, and the U.S. and China relationship raised the risk sentiment that weighed heavily on the safe-haven Japanese Yen that ultimately supported the USD/JPY pair on Tuesday.

On the data front, at 04:30 GMT, the Average Cash Earnings for the Year came in as -0.8% against the expected -0.7% and weighed on the Japanese Yen. The Household Spending for the Year dropped to 1.9% against the forecasted 2.7% and weighed on the Japanese Yen and added gains in the USD/JPY pair. At 04:50 GMT, the Bank Lending for the Year came in line with the expectations of 6.3%. The Current Account Balance from Japan showed a surplus of 1.98T against the forecasted 1.83T for October and supported the Japanese Yen.

The quarter’s final GDP also raised to 5.3% against the expected 5.0% and supported the Japanese Yen. AT 04:52 GMT, the Final GDP Price Index for the Year raised to 1.2% against the forecasted 1.1% and supported the Japanese Yen. At 10:00 GMT, the Economic Watchers Sentiment dropped to 45.6 against the expected 52.7 and weighed on the Japanese Yen that supported the USD/JPY pair’s upward trend.

From the U.S. side, at 01:00 GMT, the Consumer Credit for October fell to 7.2B against the estimated 17.6B and weighed on the U.S. dollar. At 16:00 GMT, the NFIB Business Index fell to 101.4 against the estimated 102.6 in November and weighed on the U.S. dollar. At 18:30 GMT, the Revised Nonfarm Productivity for the quarter declined to 4.6% against the forecasted 4.9%, supported the U.S. dollar, and added further gains in the USD/JPY pair. The Revised Unit Labor Costs for the quarter came in as -6.6% against the projected -8.9% and supported the U.S. dollar and supported the USD/JPY pair’s upside momentum. At 20:00 GMT, the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism came in as 49.0 in December than the previous 50.0.

Meanwhile, the USD/JPY pair’s gains remained limited as the U.S. dollar was under pressure as the country crossed 15 million coronavirus cases, which was the world’s highest total. American hospitals started to give warnings about the staff shortage and extensive spread of the disease. Pennsylvania’s governor Tom Wolf said that the coronavirus was spreading extensively throughout the state and could soon reach the level where hospitals will begin turning away patients. He also said that additional pandemic restrictions might be on controlling the spread of the virus.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

104.00       104.27

103.84       104.38

103.73       104.54

Pivot point: 104.11

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading within a symmetric triangle pattern observed in the 4-hour timeframe. The pair recently disrupted the sideways trading series of 104.600 – 104.200, and now it’s trading at 104.300 level, especially after bouncing off over 103.700 level on the lower side, supporting the pair nearby 103.700 mark. On the downside, the USD/JPY may find support at the 103.200 level upon a bearish breakout of the 103.750 support level. While resistance stays at 104.350 and 104.700 today. Good luck

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave Forex Market Analysis

EURUSD: is 1.22 at Hand?

The EURUSD pair advances in the extreme bullish sentiment range, consolidating the short-term rally that started on November 04th when the price found fresh buyers at 0.15615.

The EURUSD pair advances in the extreme bullish sentiment range, consolidating the short-term rally that started on November 04th when the price found fresh buyers at 0.15615.

The EURUSD pair advances in the extreme bullish sentiment range, consolidating the short-term rally that started on November 04th when the price found fresh buyers at 1.15615.

Technical Overview

The following 8-hour chart shows the short-term participants’ sentiment keeps pushing higher the price action. In this view, the common currency looks to consolidate the pair’s impulsive movement that began in early November.

In this chart, we can see that the current primary trend is clearly bullish. Simultaneously, the accelerated trendline identified with the green line shows the short-term bull market remains intact.

On the other hand, both the intraday sideways channel and the retracement observed in the EMA(60) to Close Index lead to a consolidation of the rally experienced by the common currency during the previous trading sessions.

Therefore, if the price action penetrates below 1.20338, the likelihood of a reversal movement in the EURUSD increases.

Short-term Technical Outlook

The short-term Elliott Wave view for the EURUSD pair unfolded in the next 4-hour chart reveals the advance in an incomplete bullish impulsive wave of Minor degree identified in green.

The EURUSD 4-hour chart illustrates the impulsive rally that began on November 04th when the price found fresh buyers at 1.16025. The price action currently looks to have completed its third wave of Minute degree labeled in black, confirmed by the broadest distance shown on the MACD oscillator. 

On the other hand, the consolidation structure in progress reveals the potential sideways advance of its fourth wave. Considering the Elliott Wave Principle, the fourth wave shouldn’t penetrate below the invalidation level located at 1.19201, which corresponds to the end of wave ((i)) in black.

Also, considering both the second wave, which looks like a simple corrective pattern, and the alternation principle on corrective waves, the fourth wave should be a complex correction. In this context, the fourth wave could be a triangle or a combination of simple waves grouped in a double-three or a triple-three formation.

Finally, the extension in terms of time should indicate the exhaustion of the bullish pressure; thus, the common currency could soon end its bullish cycle.

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave Forex Market Analysis

GBPAUD Consolidates in an Incomplete Correction

The GBPAUD cross continues consolidating in what is a corrective formation that continues in development since October 22nd when the price found fresh sellers on 1.85272. In this context, the current consolidation pattern suggests a coming rally in the following trading weeks.

Technical Overview

The next 12-hour chart illustrates the short-term market participants’ sentiment displaying the 90-day high and low range, which bounced in the bearish sentiment zone finding resistance in the neutral level of 1.80104, where the cross is still moving in the current trading session. However, as long as the GBPAUD cross doesn’t surpass and closes above the level of 1.80104, the bias will stay mostly bearish.

The primary trend identified in blue shows that the current uptrend remains in its formation process. In this context, the corrective movement in progress represents a secondary trend from the last upward move that carried the cross from 1.74935 to 1.85272.

Short-term Technical Outlook

The short-term Elliott wave view for the GBPAUD cross shown in the following 4-hour chart reveals the downward advance in an incomplete double-three pattern of Minute degree labeled in black, which suggests further declines for the following trading sessions.

The previous chart shows the GBPAUD developing a double three pattern. According to the textbook, this complex corrective formation follows an internal sequence subdivided into 3-3-3, where each three corresponds to a basic corrective structure.

Currently, the cross looks advancing in its wave (c) of Minuette degree labeled in blue, which belongs to the wave ((y)) of Minute degree identified in black. The movement developed until now fits two potential scenarios:

  • The first scenario considers the pause in the wave (c), which could see further declines to the demand zone between 1.7774 and 1.7716. The cross could even extend its drops until 1.7610 and 1.7554, where the price could find fresh buyers expecting a boost in its price to new highs.
  • The second occurs if the price ends its wave (c) in blue and rally toward fresh highs. In this context, the cross should confirm the breakout of the supply zone resistance at 1.8041. Also, the cross must break up the ((x))-(b) trend-line.

Finally, the invalidation level for this bearish sequence in progress can be found at the end of wave (b) in blue at 1.82144.

Categories
Forex Signals

GBP/USD Violates Choppy Range – Brace for a Sell Trade! 

The GBP/USD pair bounced off over 1.3263 level, trading at 1.3340 level now. On the 4 hour timeframe, the GBP/USD is consolidating in between a broad trading range of 1.3406 – 1.3263. The Cable may find the next support at 1.3204 level, and below this, the next support can also be found around 1.3100 level today. On the higher side, the resistance hold around the 1.3406 mark. The 50 periods EMA also helps sell bent, while the Sterling is still seeking to close candle beneath 1.3330. If this occurs, we may see a revival of a selling bias in the GBP/USD pair. The MACD and RSI are suggesting selling bais in the pair, and we should look for selling trades below the 1.3350 level today. 

The GBP/USD pair bounced off over 1.3263 level, trading at 1.3340 level now. On the 4 hour timeframe, the GBP/USD is consolidating in between a broad trading range of 1.3406 – 1.3263. The Cable may find the next support at 1.3204 level, and below this, the next support can also be found around 1.3100 level today. On the higher side, the resistance hold around the 1.3406 mark. The 50 periods EMA also helps sell bent, while the Sterling is still seeking to close candle beneath 1.3330. If this occurs, we may see a revival of a selling bias in the GBP/USD pair. The MACD and RSI are suggesting selling bais in the pair, and we should look for selling trades below the 1.3350 level today. 

The GBP/USD pair bounced off over 1.3263 level, trading at 1.3340 level now. On the 4 hour timeframe, the GBP/USD is consolidating in between a broad trading range of 1.3406 – 1.3263. The Cable may find the next support at 1.3204 level, and below this, the next support can also be found around 1.3100 level today. On the higher side, the resistance hold around the 1.3406 mark. The 50 periods EMA also helps sell bent, while the Sterling is still seeking to close candle beneath 1.3330. If this occurs, we may see a revival of a selling bias in the GBP/USD pair. The MACD and RSI are suggesting selling bais in the pair, and we should look for selling trades below the 1.3350 level today. 


Entry Price – Sell 1.33248

Stop Loss – 1.331

Take Profit – 1.32848

Risk to Reward – 1:1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.

iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368

Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

Categories
Forex Signals

USD/CAD Breaking Below Double Bottom Level – Selling Bias in Play! 

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.27993 after placing a high of 1.28328 and a low of 1.27738. After posting losses for four consecutive days, the USD/CAD pair raised on Monday amid the US dollar’s strength and declining crude oil prices. On Monday, the US dollar was strong in early European trade as the coronavirus cases continued to rise and lockdowns expanded that added weight on the hopes of the US economic recovery. The US Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against the basket of six other currencies raised by 0.3% to 90.993 and supported the USD/CAD pair’s an upward trend.

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.27993 after placing a high of 1.28328 and a low of 1.27738. After posting losses for four consecutive days, the USD/CAD pair raised on Monday amid the US dollar’s strength and declining crude oil prices. On Monday, the US dollar was strong in early European trade as the coronavirus cases continued to rise and lockdowns expanded that added weight on the hopes of the US economic recovery. The US Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against the basket of six other currencies raised by 0.3% to 90.993 and supported the USD/CAD pair’s an upward trend.

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.27993 after placing a high of 1.28328 and a low of 1.27738. After posting losses for four consecutive days, the USD/CAD pair raised on Monday amid the US dollar’s strength and declining crude oil prices. On Monday, the US dollar was strong in early European trade as the coronavirus cases continued to rise and lockdowns expanded that added weight on the hopes of the US economic recovery. The US Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against the basket of six other currencies raised by 0.3% to 90.993 and supported the USD/CAD pair’s an upward trend.

The rising number of coronavirus cases in the California State pushed its governor to extend the time duration of imposed restrictive measures and raised the safe-haven appeal to impact the US economic recovery. The rising demand for safe-haven added strength in the greenback that pushed the USD/CAD pair higher.

The recent sanctions and travel ban on 14 Chinese officials from the US government also added the appeal for safe-haven as it would escalate the dispute between the world’s two biggest economies. The rising safe-haven appeal added strength to the greenback and supported the USD/CAD pair’s an upward trend. Meanwhile, the WTI crude oil prices on Monday also declined to $45.34 per barrel level and weighed on Loonie’s commodity-linked currency. The declining Canadian dollar also added to the upward momentum of the USD/CAD pair.

The Canadian dollar was the second worst-performing currency among the G10 currencies on Monday, partially because of the profit-taking in the wake of last Friday’s much stronger than expected November jobs report. Besides, the risk-off market mood weighed on risk-sensitive Loonie and added strength in the USD/CAD pair. On the data front, at 20:00 GMT, the Ivey PMI from Canada raised to 52.7 against the forecasted 52.3 and supported the Canadian dollar that capped further gains in the USD/CAD pair.


Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.2773 1.2790

1.2765 1.2799

1.2756 1.2807

Pivot point: 1.2782

The USD/CAD pair is trading sideways at the 1.2789 level due to a lack of volatility in the market. On the lower side, the support holds around the 1.2770 level, whereas the bullish trend continuation can extend the buying trend until the next resistance level of 1.2835. We may not see a further trend in the pair until this range gets violated. On the lower side, a bearish breakout of the 1.2770 level can extend selling bias until the 1.2720 level. It looks like investors are waiting for a solid fundamental to determine further moves in the market. Let’s look for selling below 1.2836 and buying over 1.2770 level today. Good luck! 

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Forex Signals

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 08 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eyes on European Events! 

On the news front, the market is likely to remain muted in the absence of high impact events. Italian banks will be closed in observance of Immaculate Conception Day while the Frend Trade Balance, European Revised GDP q/q, and German ZEW Economic Sentiment will remain in the highlights today.

On the news front, the market is likely to remain muted in the absence of high impact events. Italian banks will be closed in observance of Immaculate Conception Day while the Frend Trade Balance, European Revised GDP q/q, and German ZEW Economic Sentiment will remain in the highlights today.

On the news front, the market is likely to remain muted in the absence of high impact events. Italian banks will be closed in observance of Immaculate Conception Day while the Frend Trade Balance, European Revised GDP q/q, and German ZEW Economic Sentiment will remain in the highlights today.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 


 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.21088 after placing a high of 1.21660 and a low of 1.20784. EUR/USD pair extended its losses on Monday for the second consecutive day over the diminishing risk sentiment and the hopes for further easing package from ECB. The EUR/USD pair remained under pressure on Monday ahead of the upcoming ECB meeting on Thursday. The European Central Bank was set to deliver a further easing package of almost 500 billion euros to the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme that will extend the purchases for many more months and weighed on the single currency Euro. 

Furthermore, the European Central Bank is also expected to increase its targeted longer-term refinancing operations and also to make them more accommodative. The ECB’s governing council members said that these decisions have been taken to extend the duration of accommodative financial conditions to support the recovery in 2021 further and beyond, rather than making financial conditions right now more accommodative.

The pressure on ECB to over-deliver on the market expectations declined due to the recent improvement in global financial market conditions since Joe Biden won the U.S. presidential election and positive vaccine news in early November. The more important event of the day for EUR was the Summit of 27 E.U. countries that will begin on Thursday and Friday.

The top agenda will be Brexit in the Summit as the question remained that UK PM Boris Johnson and E.U. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will be successful in reaching a deal before the Summit. The paused Brexit talks by top E.U. negotiator Michel Barnier on Friday also added pressure on EUR/USD pair on Monday. Another factor pressuring the European Union was the Polish and Hungarian veto against the E.U. Recovery Fund and the 2021-2027 Budget. Both nations announced their intentions shortly before ambassadors of the E.U. member states met on Monday to veto various parts of the financial settlement. If a deal cannot be agreed with these two nations regarding the rule of law attachments being added to funding, then the E.U. has threatened to go with EU-minus Poland and Hungary fiscal package. 

On the data front, at 12:00 GMT, the German Industrial Production also raised to 3.2% against the estimated 1.8% and supported Euro and capped further losses in EUR/USD pair. At 14:30 GMT, the Sentix Investor Confidence came in as -2.7 against the estimated -11.9 and supported Euro and limited additional losses in EUR/USD pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.2113      1.2129

1.2107      1.2139

1.2097     1.2146

Pivot point: 1.2123

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The market’s technical side continues to be the same as the pair continues to trade sideways due to a lack of high impact economic events. On the higher side, the EUR/USD may find an immediate resistance at 1.2160 and 1.2196 level. Simultaneously, the closing of candles below the 1.2103 level can send the EUR/USD pair further lower until 1.2080 and 1.2040 level. The MACD is strongly bearish; therefore, the idea will be to open a sell trade below the 1.2175 level today to capture quick green pips. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.33785 after placing a high of 1.34375 and a low of 1.32239. The GBP/USD pair dropped to its lowest since November 19 on Monday in the early trading session due to the rising U.S. dollar, but it started to recover in the late trading session after the Brexit hopes raised. The U.S. dollar raised on Monday after the coronavirus cases continued to rise, and lockdowns expanded and weighed on the U.S. economic recovery. On Sunday, the Governor of California, Gavin Newsom, ordered large parts of the most populous U.S. state to close down as coronavirus cases spiked to record levels. 

On Sunday, California reported more than 30,000 new cases and marked a new record for hospitalized coronavirus patients. Other states including, New Jersey, North Carolina, Virginia, and West Virginia, also announced a record one-day rise in new infections. These increased cases raised concerns over the economic recovery hopes and raised the demand for safe-haven greenback that ultimately weighed on GBP/USD pair. However, the currency pair GBP/USD recovered some of its losses on Monday after the UK PM Boris Johnson revealed that he was set to travel to Brussels in a last-ditch effort to break a post-Brexit deal. The E.U. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and the UK PM Boris Johnson will remove the differences on a post-Brexit deal in the coming days. This came in after a 90 minutes phone call between the two leaders failed to produce a breakthrough. 

In a joint statement, both said that the conditions for a deal were not there, and significant differences remained on fishing, level playing field, and any deal governance. They have asked their chief negotiators to prepare an overview of the remaining sticking points discussed in a physical meeting in Brussels in the coming days. A senior U.K. governmental source warned that a deal might not be possible after the phone call between Ursula and Johnson. It was also reported that the talks were in the same position as they were on Friday and made no progress. All these downbeat statements related to Brexit weighed heavily on GBP/USD pair.

On the data front, at 13:30 GMT, the Halifax Housing Price Index for November raised to 1.2% against the forecasted 0.6% and supported British Pound, and capped further losses in GBP/USD pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support  Resistance

1.3377      1.3438

1.3338      1.3462

1.3315      1.350 0

Pivot point: 1.3400

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD pair bounced off over 1.3263 level, trading at 1.3340 level now. On the 4 hour timeframe, the GBP/USD is consolidating in between a wide trading range of 1.3406 – 1.3263 level. The Cable may find the next support at 1.3204 level, and below this, the next support can also be found around 1.3100 level today. On the higher side, the resistance hold around the 1.3406 mark. The MACD and RSI are suggesting selling bais in the pair, and we should look for selling trades below 1.3400 and buying over 1.3265 level today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 104.046 after placing a high of 104.310 and a low of 103.920. On Monday, the USD/JPY pair consolidated within a tight range around 104.00 level after placing a high of 104.310 on the U.S. dollar’s strength in the early European morning. However, the pair USD/JPY reversed its direction and started posting losses in late trading hours. The U.S. dollar was strong in early European trade on Monday as the coronavirus cases continued to rise and lockdowns expanded and weighed on the U.S. economic recovery. The U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against the six other currencies basket was up by 0.3% at 90.993.

The record hike in the coronavirus spread caused the Governor of California, Gavin Newsom, to order large parts of the most populous U.S. state to close down again. California state reported 30,000 new cases in a single day and broke its daily high record. Other states like New Jersey, North Carolina, Virginia, and West Virginia also reported a record-high number of coronavirus cases.

The rising number of coronavirus infections and the U.S. hospitalization rate added pressure on the U.S. economic recovery and raised the appeal for safe-haven that ultimately added strength to the greenback. The strong U.S. dollar helped the USD/JPY pair rise to the 104.300 level in the early trading session.

However, the USD/JPY pair’s gains were short-lived as the pair started to decline in the late trading session and posted losses for the day. The decline in the USD/JPY pair was due to appreciation in the Japanese Yen after the lower U.S. yields on the day.

The 10-year Treasury yield fell by 4bps to 0.929%, and the 10-year real rates also dropped to -0.97% by 3bps. The declining U.S. yields thus decreased the attractiveness of USD investments relative to Japanese government bonds and underpinned selling pressure in the USD/JPY pair.

On the data front, at 09:59 GMT, the Leading Indicators from Japan came in line with the expectations of 93.8%. Meanwhile, the latest optimism regarding the vaccine and fiscal stimulus also kept the USD/JPY pair supported and limited the day’s losses.

Another reason behind the increasing demand for safe-haven Japanese Yen was the recent financial sanctions imposed by the U.S. and a travel ban on 14 Chinese officials over their suspected role in disqualifying elected opposition legislators in Hong Kong.

Hong Kong’s Beijing-backed government expelled four opposition members last month. In this response, the U.S. levied sanctions on Chinese officials and also blocked any assets the official might have within the U.S. These sanctions added in the safe-haven demand in the market and added strength in the Japanese Yen against the U.S. dollar, and weighed on the USD/JPY pair on Monday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

104.10      104.27

104.00      104.34

103.94      104.44

Pivot point: 104.17

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading within a symmetric triangle pattern seen in the 4-hour timeframe. The pair lately violated the sideways trading range of 104.600 – 104.200, and now it’s trading at 104.300 level, especially after bouncing off over 103.700 level on the lower side, supporting the pair around 103.700 level. On the downside, the USD/JPY may find support at the 103.200 level upon a bearish breakout of the 103.750 support level. While resistance stays at 104.350 and 104.700 today. Good luck

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Forex Signals

AUD/USD Breaking Below Double Bottom Level – Selling Bias in Play! 

The AUD/USD pair was closed at 0.74189 after placing a high of 0.74532 and a low of 0.73722. The currency pair AUD/USD extended its bearish moves on Monday amid the rising demand for the greenback and the improving risk-off market sentiment. The risk perceived Aussie came under fresh pressure on Monday as the rising number of coronavirus cases in the US forced many state governors to expand the restrictions that ultimately diminished the hopes of the US economic recovery and raised the appeal for risk-averse market sentiment.

The AUD/USD pair was closed at 0.74189 after placing a high of 0.74532 and a low of 0.73722. The currency pair AUD/USD extended its bearish moves on Monday amid the rising demand for the greenback and the improving risk-off market sentiment. The risk perceived Aussie came under fresh pressure on Monday as the rising number of coronavirus cases in the US forced many state governors to expand the restrictions that ultimately diminished the hopes of the US economic recovery and raised the appeal for risk-averse market sentiment.

The AUD/USD pair was closed at 0.74189 after placing a high of 0.74532 and a low of 0.73722. The currency pair AUD/USD extended its bearish moves on Monday amid the rising demand for the greenback and the improving risk-off market sentiment. The risk perceived Aussie came under fresh pressure on Monday as the rising number of coronavirus cases in the US forced many state governors to expand the restrictions that ultimately diminished the hopes of the US economic recovery and raised the appeal for risk-averse market sentiment.

In the first trading session of Monday, the AUD/USD pair printed fresh multi-year highs above the 0.7450 level, but the pair started to decline after the risk-averse mode took its pace in the market.

The latest sanctions over 14 Chinese officials by the US also added in the risk-averse market sentiment and weighed on the risk perceived Aussie that dragged the AUD/USD pair on the downside. The Beijing-backed government of Hong Kong expelled four opposition members last month that ended up having the US government impose sanctions on Chinese officials and a travel ban and blocking any assets the official might have within the US.

On the data front, at 02:30 GMT, the AIG Services Index in November came in as 52.9 compared to 51.4. At 05:30 GMT, the ANZ Job Advertisements in November came in as 13.9% compared to 11.9%.

The Chinese Trade Balance showed a surplus of 75.4B US dollars in the month of November and gave strength to the China-proxy Australian dollar due to their trading relationship and capped further losses in the AUD/USD pair on Monday.

Another factor involved in the declining AUD/USD pair’s prices on Monday was the US dollar’s strength due to its safe-haven status. The greenback gained traction in the market after the risk-off mood appeared because of the rising number of coronavirus cases in the US and the increasing hospitalization rate. The strong US dollar also added pressure on AUD/USD pair on Monday.


Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

0.7421 0.7437

0.7413 0.7445

0.7406 0.7453

Pivot point: 0.7429

Technically, the AUD/USD pair breaks below the double bottom support level of 0.7417, and its violation of the 0.7420 level can extend the selling trend until 0.7375. The support level of 0.7372 level is extended by an upward trendline support level of 0.7372. The MACD supports selling bias, and recent bearish engulfing and closing below the 0.7415 level can extend the selling trend until the 0.7375 level today.  

Entry Price – Sell 0.74057

Stop Loss – 0.74457

Take Profit – 0.73657

Risk to Reward – 1:1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

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Forex Signals

USD/CAD Completes 23.6% Fibonacci – What’s Next? 

The USD/CAD closed at 1.27841 after placing a high of 1.28735 and a low of 1.27720. The USD/CAD pair extended its losses towards its lowest level since May 2018 amid the strength of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar and the rising crude oil prices. On Friday, the Canadian dollar outlook improved on the expectations that the currency will benefit from the domestic economic stimulus and the rollout of the coronavirus vaccine. On Monday, the Canadian Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland forecasted the budget deficit to hit a historic C$382 billion on coronavirus emergency aid. She also added that C$100 billion would be rolled out in stimulus once the virus came under control.

The USD/CAD closed at 1.27841 after placing a high of 1.28735 and a low of 1.27720. The USD/CAD pair extended its losses towards its lowest level since May 2018 amid the strength of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar and the rising crude oil prices. On Friday, the Canadian dollar outlook improved on the expectations that the currency will benefit from the domestic economic stimulus and the rollout of the coronavirus vaccine. On Monday, the Canadian Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland forecasted the budget deficit to hit a historic C$382 billion on coronavirus emergency aid. She also added that C$100 billion would be rolled out in stimulus once the virus came under control.

The USD/CAD closed at 1.27841 after placing a high of 1.28735 and a low of 1.27720. The USD/CAD pair extended its losses towards its lowest level since May 2018 amid the strength of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar and the rising crude oil prices. On Friday, the Canadian dollar outlook improved on the expectations that the currency will benefit from the domestic economic stimulus and the rollout of the coronavirus vaccine. On Monday, the Canadian Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland forecasted the budget deficit to hit a historic C$382 billion on coronavirus emergency aid. She also added that C$100 billion would be rolled out in stimulus once the virus came under control.

These statements from the Canadian Finance Minister added strength to the Canadian dollar as the hopes for Canadian economic recovery increased. The strong Canadian dollar added heavy pressure on the USD/CAD pair on Friday and dragged the pair on the downside.

Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar was also strong because of the positive macroeconomic data on Friday. At 18:30 GMT, the Employment Change from Canada raised to 62.1K against the forecasted 22.0K and supported the Canadian dollar and added losses in USD/CAD pair. 

The Unemployment Rate from Canada dropped to 8.5% against the forecasted 9.0% and supported the Canadian dollar and supported the USD/CAD pair’s downward trend. The Trade Balance from Canada came in as -3.8B against the forecasted -3.2B and weighed on the Canadian dollar.

From the US side, at 18:30 GMT, the Average Hourly Earnings raised to 0.3% against the estimated 0.1% and supported the US dollar, and capped further losses in the USD/CAD pair. The Non-Farm Employment Change declined to 245K against the estimated 480K and weighed on the US dollar and supported the USD/CAD pair’s losses. The Unemployment Rate dropped to 6.7% against the estimated 6.8% and supported the US dollar. The Trade Balance from the US came in as -63.1B against the estimated -64.7B and supported the US dollar. 

At 20:00 GMT, the Factory Orders for November raised to 1.0% against the estimated 0.8%, supported the US Dollar, and capped further USD/CAD pair losses. Most of the US dollar economic data came in favor of the US dollar, but the NFP employment change or the job creation by the US economy fell short of expectations and weighed on the US dollar that added losses in the USD/CAD pair.

Another important factor involved in the USD/CAD pair’s losses on Friday was the rising crude oil prices. The price of crude oil, one of Canada’s major export, rose on Friday above $46 per barrel after the coronavirus vaccine’s speedy approval that would boost the global economic recovery and ultimately increase the energy demand. The higher crude oil prices supported the commodity-linked currency Loonie and added pressure on the currency pair USD/CAD on Friday.


Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.2825 1.2918

1.2791 1.2977

1.2733 1.3011

Pivot point: 1.2884

The USD/CAD slipped to trade at a 1.2811 level, holding above an immediate support level of 1.2775. Above this level, the commodity currency pair has formed a Doji candle, suggesting odds of selling bias until the 1.2770 level. Taking a look at the 4-hour timeframe, the USD/CAD pair has closed a bullish engulfing pattern at the 1.2811 level, and it may head upward until the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.2837 level. Bullish trend continuation can lead to its prices further higher until the next resistance level of the 1.2904 level marks a 61.8% Fibonacci level. Good luck! 

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Forex Signals

AUD/USD Upward Channel In-Play – Brace for a Buying Trend! 

The AUD/USD closed at 0.74260 after placing a high of 0.74435 and a low of 0.74100. After rising for three consecutive days, the AUD/USD pair dropped on Friday and posted small losses as it remained confined in a range between 0.74100 and 0.74400. The currency pair rose in the early trading session on Friday as it followed the previous day’s trend and because of the Australian side’s supportive economic data. Another factor involved in the rising AUD/USD prices in the early trading session was the improved risk-sentiment from the latest development in the coronavirus vaccine.

The AUD/USD closed at 0.74260 after placing a high of 0.74435 and a low of 0.74100. After rising for three consecutive days, the AUD/USD pair dropped on Friday and posted small losses as it remained confined in a range between 0.74100 and 0.74400. The currency pair rose in the early trading session on Friday as it followed the previous day’s trend and because of the Australian side’s supportive economic data. Another factor involved in the rising AUD/USD prices in the early trading session was the improved risk-sentiment from the latest development in the coronavirus vaccine.

The AUD/USD closed at 0.74260 after placing a high of 0.74435 and a low of 0.74100. After rising for three consecutive days, the AUD/USD pair dropped on Friday and posted small losses as it remained confined in a range between 0.74100 and 0.74400. The currency pair rose in the early trading session on Friday as it followed the previous day’s trend and because of the Australian side’s supportive economic data. Another factor involved in the rising AUD/USD prices in the early trading session was the improved risk-sentiment from the latest development in the coronavirus vaccine.

The approval for emergency use authorization to Pfizer and BioNtech added in the risk sentiment as the hopes for global economic recovery increased and supported the risk-sensitive Aussie. The strong Australian dollar pushed the AUD/USD pair higher in early trading hours on Friday. On the data front, at 05:30 GMT, the Retail Sales from Australia raised to 1.4% against the projected 0.5% and supported the Australian dollar, and capped further losses in AUD/USD pair.

From the US side, at 18:30 GMT, the Average Hourly Earnings rose to 0.3% against the expected 0.1% and supported the US dollar and added pressure on AUD/USD pair. The Non-Farm Employment Change fell to 245K against the expected 480K and weighed on the US dollar, and capped further losses in AUD/USD pair. The Unemployment Rate fell to 6.7% against the expected 6.8% and supported the US dollar. The Trade Balance from the US came in as -63.1B against the expected -64.7B and supported the US dollar. At 20:00 GMT, the Factory Orders for November rose to 1.0% against the expected 0.8% and supported US Dollar and added pressure on AUD/USD pair.

Despite the US’s disappointing Job report, the unemployment rate and factory order data managed to support the US dollar through the rough time and exerted downward pressure on AUD/USD pair. Meanwhile, the AUD/USD pair’s losses were also limited because of the underlying pressure on the US dollar after the agreement between Democrats and Republicans over the $908 billion stimulus package. The agreement on the bipartisan proposal added hopes that a massive stimulus could also be approved and weighed on the US dollar that kept the losses in AUD/USD pair limited on Friday.


Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

0.7407 0.7461

0.7376 0.7482

0.7354 0.7514

Pivot point: 0.7429

The AUD/USD slipped to trade at 0.7372 level, holding above an upward support level, which is extended by an upward channel. The AUD/USD channel may drive upward movement until 0.7405 and 0.7440 resistance levels on the higher side. Conversely, a bearish breakout of 0.7372 level can extend the selling trend until the next support level of 0.7337. The RSI and MACD are reporting selling bias in the pair. Good luck! 

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Forex Signals

Reverse Head & Shoulder Pattern Formation In The EUR/USD Pair

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Forex Signals

Trend Pullback In USD/CHF Pair

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Forex Signals

USD/CHF Heading North to Complete 38.2% Fibonacci Level – Brace for Buying! 

The USD/CHF trade is sharply bearish to drop until the 0.8885 level, holding above a support level of 0.8880 amid a stronger U.S. dollar. The tussle between China and the U.S. kept gaining market attention and challenged the market risk tone. As per the latest report, the Trump administration was preparing sanctions on at least a dozen Chinese officials in the wake of their alleged role in China’s disqualification of elected opposition legislators in Hong Kong.

The USD/CHF trade is sharply bearish to drop until the 0.8885 level, holding above a support level of 0.8880 amid a stronger U.S. dollar. The tussle between China and the U.S. kept gaining market attention and challenged the market risk tone. As per the latest report, the Trump administration was preparing sanctions on at least a dozen Chinese officials in the wake of their alleged role in China’s disqualification of elected opposition legislators in Hong Kong.

The USD/CHF trade is sharply bearish to drop until the 0.8885 level, holding above a support level of 0.8880 amid a stronger U.S. dollar. The tussle between China and the U.S. kept gaining market attention and challenged the market risk tone. As per the latest report, the Trump administration was preparing sanctions on at least a dozen Chinese officials in the wake of their alleged role in China’s disqualification of elected opposition legislators in Hong Kong.

As in result, the broad-based U.S. dollar managed to stop its early day losses and picked some bids during the early European session as the traders started to cheering the risk-off marker mood. However, the U.S. dollar bullish bias was rather unaffected by the worsening coronavirus (COVID-19) conditions in the U.S., or the disappointing U.S. jobs data, which raised expectations of fresh economic stimulus measures. However, the gains in the U.S. dollar turned out to be one of the leading factors that help the currency pair to limit its deeper losses. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a bucket of other currencies rose to 90.850.

On the other hand, the optimism over treatment for the highly infectious coronavirus becomes the key factor that helps the market trading sentiment stop its bearish rally, which might support the currency pair. The hopes of vaccine fueled further after the reports suggesting that the U.K.is set to become the 1st-country to roll out BNT162b2, the COVID-19 vaccine developed by Pfizer Inc (NYSE: PFE) and BioNTech SE (F:22UAy), this week.

In the absence of the key data/events on the day, the market traders will keep their eyes on RBA Gov Lowe Speaks. In addition to this, the updates about the U.S. stimulus package will also be key to watch. In the meantime, the risk catalyst like geopolitics and the virus woes, not to forget the Brexit, will not lose their importance.


Daily Support and Resistance   

S1 0.8833

S2 0.8871

S3 0.8895

Pivot Point 0.8909

R1 0.8933

R2 0.8947

R3 0.8985

Technically, the USD/CHF pair is gaining support above the 0.8886 mark, and it’s triggered an upward wave to achieve a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement mark of 0.8935. On the further higher front, an upward movement and violation of 0.8933 mark can drive more buying trend unto next Fibo level of 61.8% at 0.8965. Check out a trading plan below. 

Entry Price – Buy 0.89342

Stop Loss – 0.88942

Take Profit – 0.89942

Risk to Reward – 1:1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.

iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368

Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 07 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eyes on European Events! 

The calendar is a bit muted today, and the market can exabit thin trading volume on the news front. However, the focus can stay on German Industrial Production m/m and Sentix Investor Confidence from the Eurozone, which are expected to perform better than the previous month and may underpin the Euro currency. Besides, the U.K. Halifax HPI m/m will also play a slight role in determining the GBP trend, while economists expect HPI to improve from 0.3% to 0.6% this month.

The calendar is a bit muted today, and the market can exabit thin trading volume on the news front. However, the focus can stay on German Industrial Production m/m and Sentix Investor Confidence from the Eurozone, which are expected to perform better than the previous month and may underpin the Euro currency. Besides, the U.K. Halifax HPI m/m will also play a slight role in determining the GBP trend, while economists expect HPI to improve from 0.3% to 0.6% this month.

The calendar is a bit muted today, and the market can exabit thin trading volume on the news front. However, the focus can stay on German Industrial Production m/m and Sentix Investor Confidence from the Eurozone, which are expected to perform better than the previous month and may underpin the Euro currency. Besides, the U.K. Halifax HPI m/m will also play a slight role in determining the GBP trend, while economists expect HPI to improve from 0.3% to 0.6% this month.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.21185 after placing a high of 1.21772 and a low of 1.21101. After rising for three consecutive days, the EUR/USD pair dropped on Friday after the initial rally. The downfall in EUR/USD pair on the day came in after U.S. job figures’ release.

In the trading session on Friday, the EUR/USD pair rallied slightly on the back of improved risk sentiment and the U.S. dollar’s weakness. The risk perceived EUR/USD followed the optimism regarding the coronavirus vaccine and moved higher in the early trading session on Friday. Besides, the U.S. dollar’s weakness due to the increased spread of coronavirus and hospitalization rate in the U.S. also added strength to the rising EUR/USD pair.

The U.S. dollar was also weak due to increased hopes for the next round of U.S. stimulus package after the CARES Act passed in March. Democrats and Republicans have agreed over a $908 billion stimulus package, and the expectations have increased that a big stimulus will also be delivered soon. The weak U.S. dollar gave a Pushto EUR/USD pair on Friday and raised its prices above the 1.21700 level.

However, the EUR/USD pair’s gains started to reverse and converted into losses after the release of macroeconomic data from the U.S.

At 12:00 GMT, the German Factory Orders for November raised to 2.9% against the expected 1.4% and supported Euro. At 12:45 GMT, the French Gov Budget Balance came in as -159.9B. At 14:00 GMT, the Italian Retail Sales raised to 0.6% against the forecasted 0.2% and supported Euro.

At 18:30 GMT, the Average Hourly Earnings rose to 0.3% against the anticipated 0.1% and supported the U.S. dollar and added pressure on EUR/USD. The Non-Farm Employment Change declined to 245K against the anticipated 480K and weighed on the U.S. dollar. 

The Unemployment Rate declined to 6.7% against the anticipated 6.8% and supported the U.S. dollar and dragged the EUR/USD pair. The Trade Balance from the U.S. came in as -63.1B against the anticipated -64.7B and supported the U.S. dollar and weighed on EUR/USD pair. At 20:00 GMT, the Factory Orders for November raised to 1.0% against the anticipated 0.8% and supported U.S. Dollar. Most of the U.S. data came in support of the U.S. dollar that resulted in the EUR/USD pair’s downfall on Friday in the late trading session.

Daily Technical Levels

Support  Resistance

1.2101        1.2178

1.2063       1.2215

1.2025       1.2254

Pivot point: 1.2139

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

On Monday, the EUR/USD continues to trade sideways amid mixed NFP figures released on Friday. On the higher side, the EUR/USD may find an immediate resistance at 1.2160 and 1.2196 level. While the closing of candles below the 1.2103 level can send the EUR/USD pair further lower until 1.2080 and 1.2040 level. The MACD is strongly bearish; therefore, the idea will be to open a sell trade below the 1.2175 level today to capture quick green pips. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.3413 after a high of 1.35390 and a low of 1.34096. The GBP/USD pair rose to its highest level since May 2018 in the early trading session on Friday over the combined factor of Brexit optimism and the weakness of the U.S. dollar. However, the British Pound cut its gains after the E.U.’s Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier paused the talks.

During the early trading session on Friday, the GBP/USD pair rose and started to post gains following the Brexit optimism triggered after the agreement was reached over the Fisheries between the U.K. and the E.U. Another factor involved in the GBP/USD pair’s upward momentum was the U.S. dollar’s weakness.

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) that measures the value of the U.S. dollar against the basket of six currencies fell to its six years, the lowest level of 90.47 on Friday. The losses in DXY were due to a combination of factors, including the rising number of coronavirus in the nation and the rising expectations of the U.S. stimulus package.

The number of new coronavirus cases in the past five days in the U.S. reached about 1 million. The hospitalization rate also increased to an alarming level and hit a record high after 101,487 patients were reported to be hospitalized in a single day. This negative news from the U.S. added further pressure on the U.S. dollar and supported the upward trend in the GBP/USD pair in the early trading session on Friday.

British Pound was under demand on Thursday after the U.K. and E.U. reported that they had reached an agreement over one key sticking issue of Fisheries. Investors started to buy GBP/USD in the early trading session on Friday as they continued following the previous trend.

However, the currency pair GBP/USD pair started to decline on Friday after the release of U.S. macroeconomic data and the announcement from Michel Barnier. The E.U. Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, said that he had paused the trade talks with the U.K. and added that the conditions for a deal had not yet been met.

After one week of intensive negotiations in London, the U.K. and E.U. agreed to pause talks because the post-Brexit deal conditions were not met. Barnier said that E.U. Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and PM Boris Johson would try to make progress on a deal in the next meeting that will take place on Saturday.

After these comments by the E.U. top negotiator, the earlier optimism that the deal was imminent could be reached before the end of the week. These updates suggested that talks have reached a very critical stage, and anything could happen. It raised the market’s uncertainty and supported the safe-haven greenback that exerted pressure on GBP/USD pair.

On the data front, at 14:30 GMT, the Construction PMI from Great Britain raised to 54.7 against the projected 52.3 and supported British Pound and limited the losses in GBP/USD pair.

From the U.S. side, at 18:30 GMT, the Average Hourly Earnings surged to 0.3% against the projected 0.1% and supported the U.S. dollar and added losses in GBP/USD pair. The Non-Farm Employment Change fell to 245K against the projected 480K and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The Unemployment Rate fell to 6.7% against the projected 6.8%, supported the U.S. dollar, and dragged GBP/USD pair. The Trade Balance from the U.S. came in as -63.1B against the projected -64.7B and supported the U.S. dollar. At 20:00 GMT, the Factory Orders for November surged to 1.0% against the projected 0.8% and supported U.S. Dollar and added losses in the GBP/USD pair on Friday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3286       1.3441

1.3209       1.3519

1.3131       1.3596

Pivot Point: 1.3364

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is falling dramatically from 1.3450 to 1.3230 level by the time of covering this report. On the 4 hour timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has dipped sharply and has already violated the upward channel, which supported the pair around the 1.3350 level. The Cable may find the next support at 1.3204 level, and below this, the next support can also be found around 1.3100 level today. On the higher side, the resistance hold around the 1.3300 mark. The MACD and RSI are suggesting selling bais in the pair, we should look for selling trades below 1.3350 and buying over 1.3185 level today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 104.186 after placing a high of 104.242 and a low of 103.736. The currency pair USD/JPY rose on Friday amid the supportive U.S. macroeconomic data and the increased U.S. yields.

On Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labour reported that only 245K jobs were added to the economy while the unemployment rate fell by 0.2% in November and supported the U.S. dollar.

On the data front, at 18:30 GMT, the Average Hourly Earnings advanced to 0.3% against the anticipated 0.1% and supported the U.S. dollar and added gains in the USD/JPY pair. The Non-Farm Employment Change declined to 245K against the anticipated 480K and weighed on the U.S. dollar capped further gains in the USD/JPY pair. The Unemployment Rate declined to 6.7% against the anticipated 6.8% and supported the U.S. dollar.

The Trade Balance from the U.S. came in as -63.1B against the anticipated -64.7B and supported the U.S. dollar and pushed the pair USD/JPY higher. At 20:00 GMT, the Factory Orders for November advanced to 1.0% against the anticipated 0.8% and supported the U.S. Dollar, and added further gains in the USD/JPY pair.

The U.S.’s supportive data proved good news for the market that pushed the S&P 500 to an all-time high and raised the U.S. 10-year yield by 5bps to 0.97%. The rise in U.S. yields also added strength in the U.S. dollar and added gains in the USD/JPY pair. The less than expected job creation by the U.S. Labor Department made the near-term U.S. fiscal stimulus more likely and exerted pressure on Congress to swiftly avert the labor market’s slowdown.

However, the risk sentiment was also strong in the market after the vaccine optimism escalated and supported the hopes that the economic activities will return to pre-pandemic levels. These hopes, along with the rising expectations that the world’s largest economy will also recover soon as the stimulus package was near to be delivered, added to the risk-sentiment. These risk flows added weight on the safe-haven Japanese Yen that supported the USD/JPY pair and pushed it higher.

Meanwhile, the gains in the USD/JPY pair were also limited because of the rising number of coronavirus cases in the U.S. Over the period of 5 days, the U.S. has recorded about 1 million new coronavirus cases, and the hospitalization rate in the U.S. also hit its highest record by reaching more than 104,000 patients in a single day.

The USD/JPY pair rose on Friday due to supportive U.S. macroeconomic data, higher U.S. yields, and the rising risk sentiment in the market due to global economic recovery hopes.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

103.48       104.35

103.13       104.89

102.60       105.23

Pivot point: 104.01

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading within a symmetric triangle pattern seen in the 4-hour timeframe. The pair lately violated the sideways trading range of 104.600 – 104.200, and now it’s trading at 104.300 level, especially after bouncing off over 103.700 level on the lower side, supporting the pair around 103.700 level. On the downside, the USD/JPY may find support at the 103.200 level upon a bearish breakout of the 103.750 support level. While resistance stays at 104.350 and 104.700 today. Good luck

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Forex Signals

EURUSD: Heading towards the South

EURUSD produced a bearish candle on the daily chart Friday. The 15 M chart shows that the price made a bearish correction to start its trading day today. It found its resistance at 1.21380 and made a bearish move. It made a breakout at the level of 1.2110 by producing a good-looking bearish Marubozu candle. The pair produced one more bearish candle and then consolidated around the level of 1.21000. Upon producing a bearish Pin Bar, the price seems to get more bearish. It may head towards the level of 1.20700 with good bearish momentum. The price may consolidate or make a bullish correction around the level before finding its next direction as far as the 15M chart is concerned.

Trade Summary:

Entry: 1.21002

Stop Loss: 1.21002

Take Profit: 1.20802

The risk for the trade per standard lot is $100, Mini lot $10 and Micro lot $1. The risk-reward is 1:2. Thus, the reward for per standard lot is $200, Micro lot $ $20 and Mini lot $ 2.

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Forex Market Analysis

NZDCAD Heavy Drops driven by a Sharp Shift in Market Sentiment

In the last trading week, the NZDCAD cross  90-Day market sentiment declined from the extreme bullish to the bullish sentiment zone. The move was helped by the Canadian unemployment rate figures, which declined to 8.5% in November, beating the analysts’ expectations of 8.9%. 

In the last trading week, the NZDCAD cross  90-Day market sentiment declined from the extreme bullish to the bullish sentiment zone. The move was helped by the Canadian unemployment rate figures, which declined to 8.5% in November, beating the analysts’ expectations of 8.9%. 

In the last trading week, the NZDCAD cross  90-Day market sentiment declined from the extreme bullish to the bullish sentiment zone. The move was helped by the Canadian unemployment rate figures, which declined to 8.5% in November, beating the analysts’ expectations of 8.9%. 

Source: TradingEconomics.com

The last unemployment rate reading represents an improvement in the Canadian labor market, which showed a slight decline to 8.9% in October. On the other hand, during the current year, the data gathered from Statistics Canada stated that the record unemployment high was Mays figure of 13.7%, its highest level in more than four decades.

Technical Overview

The following 8-hour chart illustrates the market participants’ sentiment unfolded in the 90-day high and low range, revealing an aggressive decline in the Friday 04th trading session where the cross dropped over 1.7%. 

In this context, the downgrade on the market sentiment leads us to expect a corrective movement. This potential drop could find support in the neutral zone of 0.88698. Likewise, the descending of the NZDCAD EMA(60) to Close index below the zero-line drives us to anticipate a consolidation during the coming trading sessions before continuing a further decline.

Technical Outlook

The NZDCAD cross in its 8-hourly chart illustrates the mid-term uptrend that began on March 18th once the price confirmed its bottom of 0.80849. The primary trend plotted in blue reveals that the bull market remains intact.

Likewise, the breakdown observed in the last ascending secondary trend identified in green reveals a short-term correction with three potential key support levels: 0.89469, 0.88583, and 0.87489. Each of these levels shows a zone where the price action developed a polarization movement.

The following 2-hour chart shows an impulsive movement, which began on October 20th when the price found support at 0.86270. After completing its third wave of Minuette degree, in blue, the NZDCAD cross found resistance on December 03rd at 0.91630, where it started a decline in an incomplete corrective sequence that could correspond to wave (iv), in blue.

In this context, the cross could develop two potential scenarios:

  • The first scenario occurs if the price completes the third wave on 0.91630. In this case, the cross could advance mostly sideways in its wave (iv), in blue. In this scenario, the cross could find support in the demand zone between 0.89723 and 0.89490, where the price could begin to advance in its wave (v) of Minuette degree at least to the 0.9163 level.
  • The second scenario: considers an alternative count and occurs if the NZDCAD cross completes a wave (v), in blue, on 0.91630. If that is the case, it implies the price is currently advancing in a corrective formation of Minuette degree. Thus, the price could create a decline in a three-wave sequence toward the next demand zone between 0.88437 until 0.88234. 

In both scenarios, the invalidation level is found below the origin of wave (i) at 0.86270.

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Forex Elliott Wave Forex Market Analysis

AUDUSD Consolidates its Gains Expecting the US Employment Data Ahead

The price of AUDUSD reached a fresh yearly high at 0.74496 on the Thursday trading session expecting the last employment data release of the year for the US labor market corresponding to November. 

(Source: tradingeconomics.com)

Technical Overview

This year, as illustrated in the previous chart, Australia’s unemployment rate peaked at a record high of 14.7% in April, mainly boosted by the coronavirus lockdown. In this context, the analysts’ consensus expects the unemployment to drop to 6.8% for November, from 6.9% reported last October.

The mid-term Elliott wave perspective displayed in the 12-hour chart below reveals the upward progression in an incomplete five-wave sequence of Minor degree labeled in green. This bullish impulsive move began on March 18th when the Aussie found fresh buyers at 0.55063.

The previous chart also shows the Aussie’s advance in a third extended wave, suggesting that the price action could be moving in its fourth wave in green, still in development. 

This scenario considers that the Aussie moves in its internal wave (c) of Minuette degree labeled in blue, developing an ending diagonal pattern. Likewise, the wave of the upper degree corresponding to wave ((b)) of Minute degree identified in black should correspond to an expanded flat pattern, and the price should realize a new decline,

The alternative count considers the advance in the fifth wave of Minor degree in green is developing an internal ending diagonal pattern. In this case, the Aussie should start a decline corresponding to wave A in green.

Technical Outlook

The short-term Elliott wave for AUDUSD exposed in its 4-hour chart shows the advance in an ending diagonal pattern, which looks developing its fifth wave of Subminuette degree labeled in green.

Although the ending diagonal pattern suggests completing the fifth wave or wave (c), the Aussie must confirm its completion through the breakdown of its base-line that connects the waves ii and iv, in green. Also, the price should confirm the close below the intraday demand zone between 0.73492 and 0.73571.

Finally, if the price confirms its downward correction, the potential target area for this movement is from 0.7265 and 0.7144. If the area fails to hold, and the bearish pressure extends this downward movement, the Aussie could visit the base of its sideways channel on the psychologically key level of 0.70.

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Forex Signals

AUD/USD Upward Channel Supports Buying – Dollar Getting Weaker! 

The AUD/USD pair was closed at 0.74414 after placing a high of 0.74493 and a low of 0.73977. The AUD/USD pair advanced to its highest since August 2018 on Thursday over the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness and the rising risk sentiment in the market. The U.S. dollar saw a massive sell-off on Thursday that led the U.S. Dollar Index to fell to its 2-years lowest level at 90.50. The latest decline in the demand for the U.S. dollar was droved by the rising hopes of a second round of stimulus package by Congress.

The AUD/USD pair was closed at 0.74414 after placing a high of 0.74493 and a low of 0.73977. The AUD/USD pair advanced to its highest since August 2018 on Thursday over the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness and the rising risk sentiment in the market. The U.S. dollar saw a massive sell-off on Thursday that led the U.S. Dollar Index to fell to its 2-years lowest level at 90.50. The latest decline in the demand for the U.S. dollar was droved by the rising hopes of a second round of stimulus package by Congress.

The AUD/USD pair was closed at 0.74414 after placing a high of 0.74493 and a low of 0.73977. The AUD/USD pair advanced to its highest since August 2018 on Thursday over the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness and the rising risk sentiment in the market. The U.S. dollar saw a massive sell-off on Thursday that led the U.S. Dollar Index to fell to its 2-years lowest level at 90.50. The latest decline in the demand for the U.S. dollar was droved by the rising hopes of a second round of stimulus package by Congress.

The second round of stimulus talks was resumed that succeeded in getting a consensus on a $908 billion bipartisan bill for coronavirus pandemic. The Democrats said that they would back the proposal as it was the starting step toward the stimulus package. These optimistic statements raised the hopes that the second round of financial aid from Congress for coronavirus pandemic will be released soon and support the economy. These hopes weighed on the U.S. dollar and supported the AUD/USD pair’s gains on Thursday. 

On the data front, at 02:30 GMT, AIG Construction Index from Australia came in as 55.3 against the previous 52.7. At 05:30 GMT, the Trade Balance from Australia surged to7.46B against the forecasted 5.83B and supported Aussie that added further gains in the AUD/USD pair on Thursday. At 17:30 GMT, the Challenger Job Cuts for the year in November came in as 45.4%against the previous 60.4%. At 18:30 GMT, the Unemployment Claims from last week declined to 712K against the predicted 775K and supported the U.S. dollar and capped further gains in AUD/USD pair. At 19:45 GMT, the Final Services PMI for November surged to 58.4 against the predicted 57.5 and supported the U.S. dollar. At 20:00 GMT, the ISM Services PMI stayed as predicted 55.9. Meanwhile, the AUD/USD pair also rose to its 2-years highest level on Thursday after the Caixin Services PMI on Thursday raised to 57.8 against the expected 56.5 and supported the China-proxy Aussie. 

The risk-perceived Australian dollar also followed the risk appetite and reached above its more than 2-years highest level as the optimism in the market related to vaccine development continuously supported the quick global economic recovery. This optimism also raised hopes that soon the vaccine will circulate in the market, and the economy will return to its pre-pandemic level that would help people return to their everyday routine lives. These positive hopes kept the market sentiment higher and supported Aussie’s risk on the bullish track.


Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

0.7371 0.7441

0.7326 0.7466

0.7301 0.7512

Pivot point: 0.7396

Entry Price – Buy 0.7437

Stop Loss – 0.7397

Take Profit – 0.7477

Risk to Reward – 1:1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

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Forex Signals

USD/CAD Bearish Bias Seems to Halt – Eyes on U.S. NFP Figures! 

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.28619 after placing a high of 1.29411 and a low of 1.28519. The USD/CAD pair extended its losses for the 3rd consecutive day on Thursday due to broad-based U.S. dollar weakness and the rising crude oil prices.

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.28619 after placing a high of 1.29411 and a low of 1.28519. The USD/CAD pair extended its losses for the 3rd consecutive day on Thursday due to broad-based U.S. dollar weakness and the rising crude oil prices.

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.28619 after placing a high of 1.29411 and a low of 1.28519. The USD/CAD pair extended its losses for the 3rd consecutive day on Thursday due to broad-based U.S. dollar weakness and the rising crude oil prices.

The USD/CAD fell to its lowest since October 2018 on Thursday as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) reached 90.50 level, its lowest for 31 months. The U.S. dollar weakness could be attributed to the latest progress made in the talks of stimulus relief package in the U.S.

The Top Democrats officials, including President-elect Joe Biden, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and the Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, have said that they favored a $908 billion worth bipartisan bill for now as it was the starting step towards the stimulus package. These comments from Democrats raised hopes that a deal might be reached between Republicans and Democrats. Both parties have a shared view that there was a need for a 2020 stimulus package in the economy and that a deal should be reached soon.

This progress raised the hopes and optimism in the market related to the U.S.’s stimulus package and weighed heavily on the U.S. dollar that ultimately added in the losses of the USD/CAD pair. Meanwhile, the WTI crude oil prices increased on Thursday as producers, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, resumed discussion to agree on how much crude to pump in 2021 after earlier talks failed to compromise how to tackle the weak oil demand coronavirus pandemic.

In late Thursday, OPEC+ announced after three days of discussion that they have agreed to increase the production by 500,000 barrels per day beginning in January. This will bring the total production cuts at the start of next year to 7.2 million BPD. On Thursday, the rising crude oil prices added strength in the commodity-linked Loonie that added further pressure on the USD/CAD pair.

On the data front, at 17:30 GMT, the Challenger Job Cuts for the year in November came in as 45.4%against the previous 60.4%. At 18:30 GMT, the Unemployment Claims from last week fell to 712K against the expected 775K and supported the U.S. dollar. At 19:45 GMT, the Final Services PMI for November rose to 58.4 against the forecasted 57.5 and supported the U.S. dollar. At 20:00 GMT, the ISM Services PMI stayed as forecasted 55.9.


Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.2898 1.2950

1.2877 1.2981

1.2847 1.3002

Pivot point: 1.2929

The USD/CAD traded in a selling mode, falling below the 1.2885 level to test the support area of the 1.2845 level. Bearish crossover of 1.2845 level can extend selling bias until 1.289 level. We opened a selling trade during the European open, but it seems to consolidate sideways ahead of the NFP figures. Here’s a trading plan for now…

Entry Price – Sell 1.28485

Stop Loss – 1.28885

Take Profit – 1.28085

Risk to Reward – 1:1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

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Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 04 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – NFP in Highlights! 

The eyes will remain on the U.S. NFP data on the news side, which is expected to report a slight drop from 638K to 500K during the previous month. Besides, the U.S. Average Hourly Earnings m/m and Unemployment Rate will also remain the main highlight of the day, and these may determine the USD trend for today and next week. Let’s wait for the news.

The eyes will remain on the U.S. NFP data on the news side, which is expected to report a slight drop from 638K to 500K during the previous month. Besides, the U.S. Average Hourly Earnings m/m and Unemployment Rate will also remain the main highlight of the day, and these may determine the USD trend for today and next week. Let’s wait for the news.

The eyes will remain on the U.S. NFP data on the news side, which is expected to report a slight drop from 638K to 500K during the previous month. Besides, the U.S. Average Hourly Earnings m/m and Unemployment Rate will also remain the main highlight of the day, and these may determine the USD trend for today and next week. Let’s wait for the news.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.21474 after placing a high of 1.21744 and a low of 1.21008. EUR/USD pair extended its gains for the 3rd consecutive day on Thursday due to the U.S. dollar’s weakness amid the rising hopes for the next round of U.S. stimulus package from Congress.

The Top Democrats, Joe Biden, and Nancy Pelosi backed the bipartisan $908 billion stimulus plan on the previous day. They urged the Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to drop his plan to bring a more modest package. All top Democrats, including the President-elect Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, and the Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, said that the bill would be acceptable as a starting point. 

The need for more stimulus relief packages to support the economy was increasingly evident, with both the ADP Non-Farm Payrolls and the ISM manufacturing survey below the expectations. Meanwhile, Car and Truck sales in November also fell from October level. On the coronavirus front, the U.S. had its deadliest day since the start of the pandemic on Thursday, with over 2700 recorded deaths due to coronavirus. Over the past 2-days alone, the death toll has reached 5000. The number of hospitalized people also reached for the first time, an alarming level of 100,000. All these developments weighed heavily on the U.S. dollar on Thursday and added strength to the EUR/USD pair.

The Spanish Services PMI for November raised to 39.5 against the expected 36.5 and supported Euro and added further gains in EUR/USD pair. At 13:45 GMT, the Italian Services PMI declined to 39.4 against the forecasted 40.9 and weighed on Euro. At 13:50 GMT, the French Final Services PMI fell to 38.8 against the anticipated 49.1 and weighed on Euro. AT 13:55 GMT, the German Final Services PMI came in line with the expectations of 46.2. At 14:00 GMT, the Final Services PMI from Eurozone raised to 41.7 against the expected 41.3 and supported Euro and the EUR/USD pair raised further. At 15:00 GMT, the Retail Sales for October also surged to 1.5% against the anticipated 0.7% and supported Euro and helped the EUR/USD pair to continue its bullish momentum.

From the U.S. side, at 17:30 GMT, the Challenger Job Cuts for the year in November came in as 45.4%against the previous 60.4%. At 18:30 GMT, the Unemployment Claims from last week fell to 712K against the anticipated 775K and supported the U.S. dollar. At 19:45 GMT, the Final Services PMI for November surged to 58.4 against the anticipated 57.5 and supported the U.S. dollar. At 20:00 GMT, the ISM Services PMI stayed as anticipated 55.9.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.1971       1.2122

1.1873       1.2175

1.1819       1.2273

Pivot point: 1.2024

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

On Friday, the EUR/USD pair continues to trade sideways ahead of the NFP figures, which may drive sharp movements during the U.S. session.

On the higher side, the EUR/USD may find an immediate resistance at 1.2160 and 1.2196 level. Simultaneously, the closing of candles below the 1.2103 level can send the EUR/USD pair further lower until 1.2080. Trend depends upon the NFP data.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD closed at 1.34525 after placing a high of 1.34998 and a low of 1.33288. The GBP/USD pair rose and reached above one year’s highest level over the bullish Brexit bets and the U.S. dollar’s weakness. On Thursday, the latest news raised the British Pound over the board that suggested that the Brexit trade deal could be reached by the weekend after the two sides showed hints of compromise over fish quotas. The positive news made the British Pound the best performer on the day in the G10 currencies. 

In an attempt to break the deadlock, Mr. Barnier and Boris Johnson lowered their demands by asking to get back only 60% of the fish that E.U. boats currently catch in British waters, down from 80%. Under the reported proposal, the U.K. would hold onto increased stocks of fish that are sold in the U.K. while the E.U. will keep the similar quotas of stock that are popular in the E.U. but not in the U.K.

The compromise was reported less than a week after E.U. Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier proposed to return about 15-18% of the fish caught by European fleets in British waters to the U.K. under a free trade agreement; however, at that time, the U.K. rejected this proposal.

The progress on fisheries is progress after a months-long stalemate; however, other key sticking points, including the level-playing field and governance, need to be solved to reach a deal. The time for the end of the Brexit transition period is near, and both sides have shown hints that a deal might reach by this weekend.

All these optimistic Brexit progress reports gave the local currency British Pound strength and supported the GBP/USD pair’s upward momentum that led the pair to its one-year highest level near 1.35000 on Thursday.

On the data front, at 14:30 GMT, the Final Services PMI from Britain raised to 47.6 against the expected 45.8 and supported British Pound and added further gains in GBP/USD pair.

From the U.S. front, at 17:30 GMT, the Challenger Job Cuts for the year in November came in as 45.4%against the previous 60.4%. At 18:30 GMT, the Unemployment Claims from last week declined to 712K against the projected 775K and supported the U.S. dollar. At 19:45 GMT, the Final Services PMI for November rose to 58.4 against the projected 57.5 and supported the U.S. dollar. At 20:00 GMT, the ISM Services PMI stayed as projected 55.9.

Furthermore, the gains in GBP/USD pair on Thursday were also because of the U.S. dollar’s weakness due to the progress in talks to reach a consensus between Republicans & Democrats over the second round of stimulus talks. Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, and Chuck Schumer have shown their consent for the bipartisan bill of $908 billion. This progress raised the hopes for a stimulus bill and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added strength to the GBP/USD pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3286       1.3441

1.3209       1.3519

1.3131       1.3596

Pivot Point: 1.3364

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading sideways in between a fresh trading range of 1.3305 – 1.3445. Breakout of this range can lead the Cable price towards the 1.3517 level. The volatility seems low ahead of the Christmas holidays. However, the European session can trigger a buying trend until the 1.3515 level, while support continues to stay at the 1.3305 level. A bearish breakout of the 1.3305 level can trigger selling until the 1.3212 level. The MACD and RSI are suggesting a bullish bias in the market. Let’s consider taking buying trades over 1.3305 and 1.3447 level today.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 103.841 after placing a high of 104.534 and a low of 103.669. The USD /JPY pair dropped to its lowest since November 18 on Thursday due to broad-based U.S. dollar weakness.

The U.S. Dollar Index extended its losses for 3rd consecutive day on Thursday and fell to a 31-month lowest level below 91.10 after the hopes for the next round of stimulus raised in the market. The top three Democratic Leaders, President-elect Joe Biden, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, backed the bipartisan proposal for a coronavirus relief package worth $908 billion. They all urged the Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to drop his plans of bringing a more modest package back to the floor of the upper chamber.

Both parties agree that more relief aid should be delivered to Americans to curb the coronavirus pandemic’s effects but have differences over the size, method, and healthcare system. The renewed efforts to strike a deal followed a months-long deadlock over the second stimulus relief package and weighed heavily on the greenback that added losses in the USD/JPY pair.

On the data front at 17:30 GMT, the Challenger Job Cuts for the year in November came in as 45.4%against the previous 60.4%. At 18:30 GMT, the Unemployment Claims from last week dropped to 712K against the estimated 775K and supported the U.S. dollar, and capped further losses in the USD/JPY pair. At 19:45 GMT, the Final Services PMI for November rose to 58.4 against the estimated 57.5 and supported the U.S. dollar. At 20:00 GMT, the ISM Services PMI stayed as estimated at 55.9.

Furthermore, the U.S. dollar was also weak because of the rising cases of coronavirus in the U.S. The U.S. saw its deadliest day since the start of the pandemic on Thursday after 2,700 deaths were reported in a single day. Over the past two days only, the death toll has reached 5,000 in the U.S. from the coronavirus, and the hospitalization rate has also increased, with more than 100,000 cases reported to be hospitalized in a single day.

These raised concerns for the U.S. economy as many states were still under strict restrictive measures, and the economic activities there were still affected. The rising number of deaths might weigh more on the local currency. The U.S. dollar came under pressure and dragged the USD/JPY pair further on the downside.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

104.13       104.54

103.95       104.77

103.72       104.95

Pivot point: 104.36

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY has violated the sideways trading range of 104.600 – 104.200, and now it’s trading at 103.876 level. On the lower side, the pair has formed a triple bottom level, supporting the pair around 103.700 level. Investors seem to wait for the U.S. NFP and unemployment rate figures to determine further U.S. dollar trends. On the lower side, the USD/JPY may head towards the 103.200 level upon a bearish breakout of the 103.750 support level. While resistance stays at 104.350 today. Good luck

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave Forex Market Analysis

Is GBPUSD Preparing a Reversal Move?

The GBPUSD pair is seen advancing in an ending diagonal pattern inside an incomplete flat pattern of Minor degree, identified in green, which is in progress since September 01st when the Sterling found resistance 1.34832. 

The GBPUSD pair is seen advancing in an ending diagonal pattern inside an incomplete flat pattern of Minor degree, identified in green, which is in progress since September 01st when the Sterling found resistance 1.34832. 

The GBPUSD pair is seen advancing in an ending diagonal pattern inside an incomplete flat pattern of Minor degree, identified in green, which is in progress since September 01st when the Sterling found resistance 1.34832. 

 

Technical Overview

The previous 8-hour chart exposes the advance in a potential flat pattern (3-3-5), which currently develops its wave B of Minor degree identified in green. In this context, once the current corrective rally ends, the next potential move, according to the Elliott Wave theory, could correspond the wave C. This movement should follow an internal structure subdivided into five wave segments.

Analyzing wave B’s internal structure, currently, we see the price advancing in its wave ((c)) of Minute degree labeled in black. In this context, according to the textbook, the pattern identified in the current wave ((c)) has the shape of an incomplete ending diagonal pattern.

On the other hand, looking at the price and time relationship presented in the first chart, it is interesting to compare the elapsed time of the current wave B with wave A. This comparison suggests that the current wave B can be thought of as a corrective rally; thus, the next move could become an aggressive decline. 

Nevertheless, considering that the current wave B remains in progress, the short-term bias is still on the bullish side.

Technical Outlook

The next 8-hour chart shows the GBPUSD advance in its fifth wave of Minuette degree, labeled in blue, which belongs to the wave ((c)), in black, suggesting a terminal movement.

In this context, the price’s test of the upper sideways channel trendline suggests that the Pound Sterling could develop an expanded flat pattern. This Elliott Wave pattern’s implication makes us consider a strike over the origin of wave A located at 1.34832, where the pair should start to decline, developing its wave C in green.

Finally, both the ending diagonal pattern and the expanded flat pattern requires the pair to confirm the breakdown below the demand zone between 1.33135 and 1.32876. If the pair’s price action confirms this breakdown, it could move down up to the level of 1.29144.

Categories
Forex Signals

USD/CHF Violates Descending Triangle Pattern – Quick Trade Setup! 

During Thursday’s early European trading hours, the USD/CHF currency pair failed to stop its overnight bearish bias and remained depressed for the 3rd-consecutive session on the day. However, the reason for the bearish bias around the currency pair could be associated with the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, triggered by hopes for additional U.S. fiscal stimulus from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Moreover, the U.S. economic recovery concerns amid intensifying coronavirus woes also exerted downside pressure on the American currency, which turned out to be one of the major factors that kept the currency pair under pressure. 

During Thursday’s early European trading hours, the USD/CHF currency pair failed to stop its overnight bearish bias and remained depressed for the 3rd-consecutive session on the day. However, the reason for the bearish bias around the currency pair could be associated with the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, triggered by hopes for additional U.S. fiscal stimulus from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Moreover, the U.S. economic recovery concerns amid intensifying coronavirus woes also exerted downside pressure on the American currency, which turned out to be one of the major factors that kept the currency pair under pressure. 

During Thursday’s early European trading hours, the USD/CHF currency pair failed to stop its overnight bearish bias and remained depressed for the 3rd-consecutive session on the day. However, the reason for the bearish bias around the currency pair could be associated with the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, triggered by hopes for additional U.S. fiscal stimulus from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Moreover, the U.S. economic recovery concerns amid intensifying coronavirus woes also exerted downside pressure on the American currency, which turned out to be one of the major factors that kept the currency pair under pressure. 

Across the pond, the disappointing ADP report on private-sector employment fueled worries about the economic fallout from the continuous surge in new COVID-19 cases in the United States, which also exerted downside pressure on the market trading sentiment and contributed to the currency pair losses. In the meantime, the on-going uncertainty over Brexit trade talks and worries of trade/political war between the West and China provides additional support to the safe-haven Swiss Francs, which adds further burden around the currency pair. Conversely, the selling bias surrounding the equity market was capped by the optimism over a potential vaccine for the hazardous coronavirus infection, which might help the currency pair limit its deeper losses. 

The market risk-on tone faded instantly after the Trump administration issued new guidelines restricting travel to the U.S. by members of the Chinese Communist Party, which tend to fuel already intensified tension between the United States and China. Across the pond, the rising COVID-19 cases still not showing any sign of slowing down, which in turn strengthened lockdown restrictions across Europe and the U.S. As per the latest report, Germany and France have been introducing new measures to curb the virus spread. These concerns kept fueling the global economic recovery worries and kept the market trading sentiment under pressure. 

Despite the risk-off-market sentiment, the broad-based U.S. dollar failed to stop its previous session declining streak and remained bearish on the day as doubts persist over the global economic recovery from COVID-19. Furthermore, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s expectations of further monetary easing also weigh on the U.S. dollar. Besides this, the encouraging data from COVID-19 vaccine developers urge investors towards riskier currencies and higher-yielding assets against the safe-haven asset, which eventually leads to losses in the safe-haven U.S. dollar. However, the U.S. dollar losses became the key factor that kept the currency pair under pressure. 

On the contrary, the bearish bias around the equity market was capped by the prevalent optimism over a possible vaccine for the highly infectious coronavirus disease. However, the hopes of the vaccine were boosted after the United Kingdom became the first country to approve a vaccine jointly developed by Pfizer and BioNTech. These optimistic hopes become the key factor that lends some support to the currency pair to ease the intraday bearish pressure surrounding the USD/CHF currency pair.  


Looking forward, the market traders will keep their eyes on the Unemployment Claims and the Final Services PMI for fresh directions. In addition to this, the risk catalyst like geopolitics and the virus woes, not to forget the Brexit, will not lose their importance.

Daily Support and Resistance

S1 0.8828

S2 0.8898

S3 0.8922

Pivot Point 0.8968

R1 0.8991

R2 0.9038

R3 0.9107

The market’s technical side is exhibiting a sharp bearish bias for the USD/CHF as the pair is trading at a 0.8907 level. The USD/CHF pair has recently violated the descending triangle pattern on the daily timeframe, driving a sharp selling trend in the pair. For now, the pair may find resistance at 0.89500 and 0.9000 level while the support stays at the 0.8843 level. Let’s consider taking a buying trade near the 0.8843 level today. Good luck!