Category: Forex Market Analysis

This section focuses on publications and analytical reports related to financial markets on a daily basis.

Main Features

Multiple asset-classes coverage
Neutral assessment of market conditions
Entry setups with relevant underlying price levels

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Forex Signals

AUD/USD Symmetric Triangle Pattern – Potential Sell Trade!

The AUD/USD closed at 0.77738 after placing a high of 0.77772 and a low of 0.76865. The AUD/USD pair recovered on Tuesday after the US dollar came under fresh pressure due to the US’s rising political risks.

The AUD/USD closed at 0.77738 after placing a high of 0.77772 and a low of 0.76865. The AUD/USD pair recovered on Tuesday after the US dollar came under fresh pressure due to the US’s rising political risks.

The AUD/USD closed at 0.77738 after placing a high of 0.77772 and a low of 0.76865. The AUD/USD pair recovered on Tuesday after the US dollar came under fresh pressure due to the US’s rising political risks.
The risk-sensitive Aussie gained traction on Tuesday despite the rising risk-off mood in the market. The risk sentiment suffered on Tuesday as the FBI told that it had received information indicating armed protests were being planned at all 50 state capitols and Washington. These comments also weighed on the US dollar that ultimately added to the AUD/USD pair’s rising prices on Tuesday.

On the other hand, the greenback was weak during Tuesday as the US Dollar Index that measures the value of the US dollar against the basket of six major currencies fell to 90.20 level and supported the upward momentum in AUD/USD pair. The risk-off market sentiment was also supported by the rising number of coronavirus cases and the increased tougher restrictions across the world to curb coronavirus spread. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yields were up by almost 2% on Tuesday, suggesting that DXY’s downside will remain limited if yields continued to rise.

On the data front, there was no macroeconomic data to be released from Australia. While From the US side, at 16:00 GMT, the NFIB Small Business Index for December fell to 95.9 against the expected 100.1 and weighed on the US dollar that ultimately added in the gains of AUD/USD pair. At 20:00 GMT, the JOLTS Job Openings for November rose to 6.53M against the anticipated 6.42M and supported the US dollar that capped further gains in AUD/USD pair. At 20:02 GMT, the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism came in line with the anticipations of 50.1.

From China, the M2 Money Supply for the year dropped to 10.1% against the forecasted 10.7% and weighed on China-proxy Aussie that capped further upside in AUD/USD pair. The New Loans from China raised to 1260B against the forecasted 1250B and supported China-proxy Aussie that added AUD/USD pair gains.

On Tuesday, Donald Trump’s administration said that it gave millions of coronavirus vaccine doses that it had been keeping back for second shots and encouraged states to offer them to all Americans above age 65 or with persistent health conditions. These comments added in the risk sentiment and supported risk perceived Aussie that ultimately added the AUD/USD pair’s upward momentum.


Daily Technical Levels
Support Resistance
0.7650 0.7756
0.7605 0.7817
0.7544 0.7862
Pivot point: 0.7711

The AUD/USD pair jas formed a symmetric triangle pattern, supporting a selling bias in the pair. On the 2 hour timeframe, the Aussie is likely to find support at the 0.7722 level along with a resistance level of 0.7776. The MACD and RSI support selling bias, whereas the 10 & 20 periods EMA are suggesting selling bias. The AUD/USD is showing a bearish crossover on the two-hourly timeframes, supporting a selling bias. Let’s consider taking a sell trade below 0.7760 today. Good luck!

Categories
Forex Signals

EUR/GBP Violates Descending Triangle Pattern – Sell Signal In Play! 

The EUR/GBP pair is trading with a bearish bias at a 0.8930 level, having violated the support level of 0.8940. The Euro seems to get weaker as the European countries have tightened measures to fight coronavirus after a brief relaxation over the Christmas and New Year period. They have re-imposed lockdowns, closed shops and offices, and introduced laws to make it easier for governments to impose further restrictions to battle the pandemic. 

The EUR/GBP pair is trading with a bearish bias at a 0.8930 level, having violated the support level of 0.8940. The Euro seems to get weaker as the European countries have tightened measures to fight coronavirus after a brief relaxation over the Christmas and New Year period. They have re-imposed lockdowns, closed shops and offices, and introduced laws to make it easier for governments to impose further restrictions to battle the pandemic. 

The EUR/GBP pair is trading with a bearish bias at a 0.8930 level, having violated the support level of 0.8940. The Euro seems to get weaker as the European countries have tightened measures to fight coronavirus after a brief relaxation over the Christmas and New Year period. They have re-imposed lockdowns, closed shops and offices, and introduced laws to make it easier for governments to impose further restrictions to battle the pandemic. 

These new lockdown measures across Europe to fight the second wave of coronavirus raised the fears of a double-dip recession in the Eurozone that added weight on the single currency Euro and capped further upside in the EUR/USD pair on Tuesday.

The Sterling is gaining strength as Bailey said that there were many issues with cutting interest rates below zero, and such a move could hurt banks. After these comments from Bailey, the British Pound gained traction and raised that ultimately pushed the EUR/GBP pair lower.

Meanwhile, The Deputy Governor of Bank of England, Ben Broadbent, said on Tuesday that Britain’s coronavirus pandemic was likely to have a limited long-run impact on inflation and has led to less short-term downward pressure on prices than might have been expected from the slump in headline economic output.

On the technical side, the EUR/GBP has violated the support level of 0.8940, and now it’s likely to extend the selling trend until it reaches 0.8873. The MACD and RSI are in support of selling; thus, we have entered the selling trade in the EUR/GBP pair. Here’s a trading plan…


Entry Price – Sell 0.89138

Stop Loss – 0.89538

Take Profit – 0.88738

Risk to Reward – 1:1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.

iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368

Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 13 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – U.S. Inflation Report in Focus! 

On the news front, eyes will remain on the ECB President Lagarde Speaks as she may discuss the upcoming monetary policy event; however, the major focus will remain on the U.S. Inflation rates, which may help determine the further direction of the U.S. dollar.

On the news front, eyes will remain on the ECB President Lagarde Speaks as she may discuss the upcoming monetary policy event; however, the major focus will remain on the U.S. Inflation rates, which may help determine the further direction of the U.S. dollar.

On the news front, eyes will remain on the ECB President Lagarde Speaks as she may discuss the upcoming monetary policy event; however, the major focus will remain on the U.S. Inflation rates, which may help determine the further direction of the U.S. dollar.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

  

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD closed at 1.22077 after placing a high of 1.22095 and a low of 1.21369. After falling for three consecutive sessions, the EUR/USD pair rose on Tuesday as the U.S. dollar eased and U.S. Treasury declined. The U.S. Dollar had hit a more than two and half year lowest level in January after sliding for months as the U.S. Federal Reserve cut its interest rates and speculation of heavy rounds of fiscal stimulus under President-elect Joe Biden’s tenure. However, after Democrats won the Georgia runoff elections, the hopes for massive stimulus packages increased, and the U.S. Treasury yields started to rise that ultimately lifted the U.S. dollar.

This rise in the U.S. dollar weighed heavily on EUR/USD pair during last week; however, the recent rally in U.S. Treasury yields ran out of the stream, and the dollar came back to its previous levels. The U.S. Treasury yield on a 10-year note reached a 10-month high on Tuesday but ultimately had a reverse effect and weighed on the U.S. dollar. This slide-in U.S. dollar added gains in EUR/USD pair on Tuesday as the investors started taking profits. Meanwhile, on Tuesday, the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that country was ready to settle its frayed relationship with the European Union back on track and called on the 27 nation bloc to display the same determination. 

These new lockdown measures across Europe to fight the second wave of coronavirus raised the fears of a double-dip recession in the Eurozone that added weight on the single currency Euro and capped further upside in the EUR/USD pair on Tuesday.

On the data front, there was no macroeconomic data to be released from Europe while from the U.S., at 16:00 GMT, the NFIB Small Business Index for December dropped to 95.9 against the expected 100.1 and weighed on the U.S. dollar that ultimately added in the gains of EUR/USD pair. At 20:00 GMT, the JOLTS Job Openings for November rose to 6.53M against the expected 6.42M and supported the U.S. dollar that capped further gains in EUR/USD pair. At 20:02 GMT, the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism came in line with the forecasts of 50.1.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.2159     1.2234

1.2111     1.2259

1.2085     1.2308

Pivot point: 1.2185

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is gaining support at the 1.2200 level, and below this, it can dip further until the 1.2189 level. On the higher side, the pair may face resistance at the 1.2226 level, and a bullish breakout of this level can extend the buying trend until 1.2260. The RSI and MACD support a bullish trend, but there’s a chance of bearish correction upon the violation of 1.2190. On the 4 hour timeframe, the EUR/USD pair may face resistance at the 1.2220 level, which is extended by a downward trendline.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD closed at 1.36645 after placing a high of 1.36702 and a low of 1.34932. After falling for four consecutive sessions, the GBP/USD pair raised on Tuesday after Sterling strengthened amid the Bank of England’s positive comments. The Pound Sterling jumped against the U.S. dollar and the Euro on Tuesday as comments from the Bank of England’s governor Andrew Bailey on the viability of negative interest rates dampened some sub-zero rates’ expectations in the U.K. 

Bailey said that there were many issues with cutting interest rates below zero, and such a move could hurt banks. After these comments from Bailey, the British Pound gained traction and raised that ultimately pushed the GBP/USD pair higher on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, The Deputy Governor of Bank of England, Ben Broadbent, said on Tuesday that Britain’s coronavirus pandemic was likely to have a limited long-run impact on inflation and has led to less short-term downward pressure on prices than might have been expected from the slump in headline economic output. Broadbent said that a smaller slowdown in inflation reflected shifts in consumer demand during the pandemic that had led to temporary capacity constraints in businesses, as well as support to household incomes from government furlough schemes.

On the data front, at 05:01 GMT, the BRC Retail Sales Monitor for the year for December dropped to 4.8% against the expected 5.9% and weighed on British Pound and capped further upside in GBP/USD pair. From the U.S. side, at 16:00 GMT, the NFIB Small Business Index for December declined to 95.9 against the projected 100.1 and weighed on the U.S. dollar that ultimately added the gains of the GBP/USD pair. At 20:00 GMT, the JOLTS Job Openings for November surged to 6.53M against the projected 6.42M and supported the U.S. dollar that capped further GBP/USD pair gains. At 20:02 GMT, the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism came in line with the projections of 50.1.

On the other hand, the U.S. dollar was also weak on Tuesday as the U.S. Dollar Index dropped as investors kept an eye on U.S. politics while pressure continued to grow to impeach President Donald Trump. Furthermore, the U.S. dollar was also weak as the prospects of massive stimulus packages from Joe Biden’s government raised as he has shown a willingness to add trillions in new relief bills that ultimately supported the upward momentum of the GBP/USD pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3555     1.3722

1.3445     1.3781

1.3387     1.3890

Pivot point: 1.3613

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading at 1.3692, and it has closed a doji candle on the four hourly timeframes, and it may extend a bearish correction in the GBP/USD pair. On the lower side, the support stays at 1.3636 and resistance at 1.3692 and 1.3720 today. The GBP/USD pair’s 10 & 20 periods EMA is supporting bullish bias in the Sterling. The MACD and RSI thesupport bullish bias; therefore, bullish bias dominates over the 1.3646 level today.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair closed at 103.749 after placing a high of 104.333 and a low of 103.718. After rising for four consecutive days, the USD/JPY pair dropped on Tuesday amid the slide in the U.S. dollar. The U.S. dollar index dropped to fresh weekly lows in the 90.20 level as hopes for additional fiscal stimulus raised and provided support to high yielding equities. The House of Representatives introduced an impeachment article against U.S. President Donald Trump that weighed on the U.S. dollar and dragged the pair USD/JPY on the downside.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell almost 0.3% on Tuesday against its rivals, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yields dropped to a session’s low of 1.146%. The U.S. stocks opened higher on Tuesday and recovered from the previous session’s losses, with investors looking for additional fiscal stimulus amid continued political turmoil. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down by 0.3%, and the S&P 500 was down by 0.6% lower while NASDAQ was low by 1.2%.

On the data front, at 04:50 GMT, the Bank Lending for the year from Japan dropped to 6.2% against the forecasted 6.5% and weighed on the Japanese Yen that capped further losses in the USD/JPY pair. The Current Account Balance from Japan for November raised to 2.34T against the forecasted 2.00T and supported the Japanese Yen that ultimately added the USD/JPY pair’s losses. At 10:00 GMT, the Economic Watchers Sentiment dropped to 35.5 against the expected 36.9 and weighed on the Japanese Yen, which capped further losses in the USD/JPY pair.

From the U.S. side, at 16:00 GMT, the NFIB Small Business Index for December decreased to 95.9 against the anticipated 100.1 and weighed on the U.S. dollar that ultimately added further losses in the USD/JPY pair. At 20:00 GMT, the JOLTS Job Openings for November increased to 6.53M against the anticipated 6.42M and supported the U.S. dollar that capped further losses in the USD/JPY pair. At 20:02 GMT, the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism came in line with the anticipations of 50.1.

Meanwhile, the safe-haven appeal rose on Tuesday after fears rose that there could be further disruptions in the days leading up to Biden’s inauguration on January 20. FBI has said that it has received information specifying that armed protests were being planned at all 50 state capitols and Washington. The FBI’s comments raised the safe-haven appeal and supported the safe-haven Japanese Yen that ultimately added the USD/JPY pair’s losses on Tuesday.

On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard said that the federal banking agencies were in the process of enlisting requests for information on the risk management of artificial intelligence applications in financial services. Whereas, the Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren said that the U.S. economy could see a strong rebound in the second half of this year as vaccinations became widely available and that monetary policy will remain accommodative. However, the virus was still driving the economy. The losses in USD/JPY pair were also capped on Tuesday after the Donald Trump administration said that it was releasing millions of coronavirus vaccine doses and urged states to offer them to all Americans over age 65 or with chronic health conditions.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

103.53     104.16

103.31     104.56

102.91     104.78

Pivot point: 103.94

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The safe-haven currency pair USD/JPY slipped to trade at 103.623 level amid increased demand for safe-haven assets. On the lower side, the USD/JPY pair has completed 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 103.611 level, and on the further lower side, the USD/JPY pair may find support at 50% Fibonacci level of 103.400 level. The MACD and RSI support selling bias; therefore, we may find support at the 103.283 level. Let’s consider taking the buying trade over the 103.283 level and selling below the same. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

AUD/USD Completes 38.2% Fibonacchi Retracement – Trade Idea! 

The AUD/USD pair was closed at 0.76953 after placing a high of 0.77604 and a low of 0.76658. AUD/USD pair dropped on Monday amid the rising US dollar prices and the improved risk-off market sentiment in the market. The risk-sensitive Australian dollar suffered due to the rising risk-off market sentiment after the world’s second-largest economy entered into restrictions as the number of coronavirus cases rose rapidly. China saw almost 18 new imported infections from overseas, and on Monday, the country in northeastern Heilongjiang province moved into lockdown after reporting new coronavirus infections. It weighed on the risk sentiment that ultimately plunged the risk-sensitive Aussie and dragged the pair AUD/USD on the downside.

The AUD/USD pair was closed at 0.76953 after placing a high of 0.77604 and a low of 0.76658. AUD/USD pair dropped on Monday amid the rising US dollar prices and the improved risk-off market sentiment in the market. The risk-sensitive Australian dollar suffered due to the rising risk-off market sentiment after the world’s second-largest economy entered into restrictions as the number of coronavirus cases rose rapidly. China saw almost 18 new imported infections from overseas, and on Monday, the country in northeastern Heilongjiang province moved into lockdown after reporting new coronavirus infections. It weighed on the risk sentiment that ultimately plunged the risk-sensitive Aussie and dragged the pair AUD/USD on the downside.

The AUD/USD pair was closed at 0.76953 after placing a high of 0.77604 and a low of 0.76658. AUD/USD pair dropped on Monday amid the rising US dollar prices and the improved risk-off market sentiment in the market. The risk-sensitive Australian dollar suffered due to the rising risk-off market sentiment after the world’s second-largest economy entered into restrictions as the number of coronavirus cases rose rapidly. China saw almost 18 new imported infections from overseas, and on Monday, the country in northeastern Heilongjiang province moved into lockdown after reporting new coronavirus infections. It weighed on the risk sentiment that ultimately plunged the risk-sensitive Aussie and dragged the pair AUD/USD on the downside.

The China proxy-Aussie suffered more due to its trading relationship with China as the country imposed strict anti-virus measures in the Hebei province due to rising coronavirus cases. It also harmed the risk-sensitive currency Aussie that ultimately added losses in AUD/USD pair. On the data front, at 05:00 GMT, the MI Inflation Gauge for December from Australia raised to 0.5% in comparison to November’s 0.3%. At 05:30 GMT, the Retail Sales for November from Australia raised to 7.1% against the forecasted 7.0% and supported the Australian dollar that capped further downside in the AUD/USD pair.

Meanwhile, the data from China also impacted the prices of the AUD/USD pair. In December, the CPI from China raised to 0.2% against the expected 0.0% and supported China-proxy Aussie. The PPI from China came in as -0.4% against the expected -0.7% and supported the China-proxy Australian dollar that ultimately limited the AUD/USD pair’s rising prices.

The US dollar was also strong on the board as the US treasury yields continued to rise on Monday. The US Dollar Index was also up to 90.50 level on Monday, followed by declining to the two-year lowest level last week and supporting the AUD/USD pair’s downward momentum on Monday. Aussie traders will remain reluctant to place a buying position in AUD/USD pair as the market sentiment was deteriorated due to the rising coronavirus cases around the globe that would hurt the risk-sensitive Aussie.


Daily Technical levels

Support Resistance

0.7700 0.7755

0.7679 0.7789

0.7645 0.7811

Pivot Point: 0.7734

The AUD/USD pair has bounced off over the 0.7690 level, forming a bullish engulfing candle on the 2-hour timeframe. It may bounce off to trade until the 0.7740 level, where 10 & 20 periods EMA are likely to extend resistance at 0.7740. On the lower side, the AUD/USD may find support at the 0.7690 level. A bearish breakout of 0.7690 level can extend the selling trend until the next support area of 0.765 level today. Good luck! 

 

Categories
Forex Signals

GBP/USD Hit Take Profit – Downward Trendline in Play!

35679 and a low of 1.34507. The GBP/USD pair lost ground on Monday and dropped to a fresh 2-weeks lowest level amid the broad-based US dollar strength. The GBP/USD witnessed some selling for the fourth consecutive session on Monday and extended its retracement slide from 33-months highs. The momentum dragged the GBP/USD pair further below as the strong rally in the US Treasury bond yields supported the US dollar. The greenback recovered from nearly three-year lowest level after the treasury yields rally amid the hopes of additional US fiscal stimulus measures. Investors started pricing in the prospects for a more aggressive US fiscal spending in 2021 after the Democratic sweep in the US Senate runoff elections in Georgia.

35679 and a low of 1.34507. The GBP/USD pair lost ground on Monday and dropped to a fresh 2-weeks lowest level amid the broad-based US dollar strength. The GBP/USD witnessed some selling for the fourth consecutive session on Monday and extended its retracement slide from 33-months highs. The momentum dragged the GBP/USD pair further below as the strong rally in the US Treasury bond yields supported the US dollar. The greenback recovered from nearly three-year lowest level after the treasury yields rally amid the hopes of additional US fiscal stimulus measures. Investors started pricing in the prospects for a more aggressive US fiscal spending in 2021 after the Democratic sweep in the US Senate runoff elections in Georgia.

35679 and a low of 1.34507. The GBP/USD pair lost ground on Monday and dropped to a fresh 2-weeks lowest level amid the broad-based US dollar strength. The GBP/USD witnessed some selling for the fourth consecutive session on Monday and extended its retracement slide from 33-months highs. The momentum dragged the GBP/USD pair further below as the strong rally in the US Treasury bond yields supported the US dollar. The greenback recovered from nearly three-year lowest level after the treasury yields rally amid the hopes of additional US fiscal stimulus measures. Investors started pricing in the prospects for a more aggressive US fiscal spending in 2021 after the Democratic sweep in the US Senate runoff elections in Georgia.

The Cable has traded in line with our forecast and closed our position in 47 green pips profit. At the moment, the GBP/USD pair may find resistance at the 1.3589 level that’s extended by a downward trendline on the 2 hourly timeframes. Let’s wait for the GBP/USD pair to reach 1.3630 resistance before getting any additional trade today. Good luck! 

Support Resistance

1.3496 1.3553

1.3475 1.3589

1.3439 1.3611

Pivot Point: 1.3532


Entry Price – Sell 1.36436
Stop Loss – 1.36836
Take Profit – 1.36036
Risk to Reward – 1:1
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40
Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.
iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368
Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

Categories
Forex Signals

Gold Violates Daily High – Brace to Capture Buying Trade! 

The yellow metal managed to stop its overnight losses and drew some fresh bids around above mid-$1,800 level as the prevalent downbeat market trading sentiment, triggered by the worsening coronavirus (COVID-19) conditions Sino-US tussle, underpinned the safe-haven metal prices. Though, the equity market losses were further bolstered after the Chinese planned to extend the Hong Kong crackdown after the arrests of nearly 50 democrats during last week, which in turn, provided some additional support to the yellow metal prices. 

The yellow metal managed to stop its overnight losses and drew some fresh bids around above mid-$1,800 level as the prevalent downbeat market trading sentiment, triggered by the worsening coronavirus (COVID-19) conditions Sino-US tussle, underpinned the safe-haven metal prices. Though, the equity market losses were further bolstered after the Chinese planned to extend the Hong Kong crackdown after the arrests of nearly 50 democrats during last week, which in turn, provided some additional support to the yellow metal prices. 

The yellow metal managed to stop its overnight losses and drew some fresh bids around above mid-$1,800 level as the prevalent downbeat market trading sentiment, triggered by the worsening coronavirus (COVID-19) conditions Sino-US tussle, underpinned the safe-haven metal prices. Though, the equity market losses were further bolstered after the Chinese planned to extend the Hong Kong crackdown after the arrests of nearly 50 democrats during last week, which in turn, provided some additional support to the yellow metal prices. 

In the meantime, the chatters surrounding that the U.K. is considering to increase hardships for Chinese companies, via tightening laws on imports, which in turn, added further pressure on the market trading sentiment and underpins the precious metal. In contrast to this, the U.S. President-elect Joe Biden’s pledge to announce trillions of dollars in new COVID-19 relief measures keep easing doubts over the global economic fallout, which becomes the key factor that kept the lid on any additional gains in the yellow metal prices. Meanwhile, the jump in global vaccinations could also help the equity market to limit its losses. The yellow metal prices are currently trading at 1,856.94 and consolidating in the range between 1,841.51 – 1,858.30.

The global markets trading sentiment failed to stop its overnight negative performance and remained sour amid Sino-US-UK tensions and growing coronavirus fears. At the COVID-19 front, the number of global cases has exceeded 90.87 million as of Jan. However, approximately 22.6 million cases were only marked in the U.S., with over 22,000 American has died from the virus during the previous week. Considering the current condition of the virus, the authorities from more countries, such as Europe and China, tighter their lockdown measures, which positively impacted the yellow-metal prices. 

Besides the virus woes, the reason for the bearish trading sentiment could also be associated with the long-lasting US-China tussle, which is continuously picking pace as the US Trump administration plans more sanctions. On the other side, China has shown its dislike over U.S. interference in matters relating to Hong Kong and Taiwan. In addition to the U.S., the U.K. has also increased hardships for Chinese companies via tightening laws on imports. However, the fears of a full-fledged trade/political war between the U.S., U.K., and China have been weighing on the market trading sentiment and were seen as major factors that kept the gold prices higher.


Entry Price – Buy 1857.14

Stop Loss – 1851.14

Take Profit – 1864.64

Risk to Reward – 1:1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.

iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368

Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 12 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Stronger Dollar In Play! 

On the fundamental side, the economic calendar is likely to offer a thin trading volume, and it may offer thin volatility to the market. However, the focus can remain on the MPC Member Broadbent Speaks due to the European session today.

On the fundamental side, the economic calendar is likely to offer a thin trading volume, and it may offer thin volatility to the market. However, the focus can remain on the MPC Member Broadbent Speaks due to the European session today.

On the fundamental side, the economic calendar is likely to offer a thin trading volume, and it may offer thin volatility to the market. However, the focus can remain on the MPC Member Broadbent Speaks due to the European session today.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

  

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD closed at 1.21499 after placing a high of 1.22258 and a low of 1.21320. The currency pair extended its losses on Monday and dropped for the third consecutive day amid the broad-based U.S. dollar strength. On Monday, the rising risk-off market mood strengthened the U.S. dollar following the news that China was intensifying coronavirus measures to limit the nation’s rising infection rate. Whereas, greenback investors were also optimistic that President-elect Joe Biden would push for a multi-trillion-dollar stimulus package.

The growing concerns over an increasing number of coronavirus cases throughout Europe and China increased the demand for safe-haven, weighing on the risk perceived EUR/USD pair on Monday. The World Health Organization (WHO) has announced on European countries to curb a new variant of coronavirus that was first detected in the U.K.

The WHO Europe director Hans Kluge has said that coronavirus’s new variant has hit almost 22 European nations, and it was an alarming situation. Many countries have imposed a full national lockdown to stop it from spreading further. However, Hans said that tougher measures were needed to flatten the steep vertical line of rising cases in some countries. These warnings by WHO also raised safe-haven appeal and added losses in the risk-sensitive EUR/USD pair on Monday.

There was no data to be released from the U.S. side on the data front, while from Europe, at 14:30 GMT, the Sentix Investor Confidence dropped to 1.3 against the forecasted 2.0 and weighed on Euro that ultimately added further losses in EUR/USD currency pair. 

On the U.S. front, the recent hike in the greenback was largely a result of higher U.S. Treasury yields that has resulted in a U.S. dollar short squeeze and pushed the greenback to higher levels. The U.S. Dollar Index continued to move higher and has climbed to 90.67, up by 0.67% on the day that added more weight on EUR/USD pair on Monday. 

The greenback was also strong on Monday amid the optimism regarding the prospects of massive stimulus packages from the president-elect Joe Biden. The incoming President has vowed to deliver two major stimulus packages in 2021. He has also said that his first order after joining the office on January 20 will be to increase the number of direct payments to $2000. This has also supported the U.S. dollar and weighed on EUR/USD pair on Monday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.2171      1.2215

1.2155      1.2243

1.2127      1.2259

Pivot Point: 1.2199

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is obtaining support at the 1.2144 level, and below this, it can dip further until the 1.2100 level. On the higher side, the pair may face resistance at the 1.2216 level. The RSI and MACD support bullish correction and may prompt a bounce off in the EUR/USD pair until the 1.2216 level. Beneath 1.2216, we can again see a dip in EUR/USD. On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair may find resistance at 1.2170, but the bullish crossover may offer us a quick buy position as the MACD supports the buying trend in the EUR/USD pair today. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD closed at 1.35100 after placing a high of 1.35679 and a low of 1.34507. The GBP/USD pair lost ground on Monday and dropped to a fresh 2-weeks lowest level amid the broad-based U.S. dollar strength. The pair GBP/USD witnessed some selling for the fourth consecutive session on Monday and extended its retracement slide from 33-months highs. The momentum drew the GBP/USD pair further below as the strong rally in the U.S. Treasury bond yields supported the U.S. dollar. The greenback recovered from nearly three-year lowest level after the treasury yields rally amid the hopes of additional U.S. fiscal stimulus measures. Investors started pricing in the prospects for a more aggressive U.S. fiscal spending in 2021 after the Democratic sweep in the U.S. Senate runoff elections in Georgia.

Meanwhile, the concerns about the surge in new coronavirus cases and the new tougher restrictions in Europe and China to fight against the new variant also weighed on the market sentiment as the safe-haven appeal emerged and contributed to the GBP/USD pair’s decline on Monday.

On Monday, England’s chief medical officer Chris Whitty said that the United Kingdom was enrolling its most challenging weeks since the start of the coronavirus pandemic as hospitals were overrun. He said that the U.K. was now at the worst point of the pandemic, and although they will have the vaccine in the future, the numbers were higher than they were in the previous peak. 

The U.K. has already suffered more deaths due to the new variant than any European nation and recently became the fifth nation on earth to reach the grim milestone of three million cases. Whitty said that there were currently more than 30,000 patients in the hospital than 18,000 during the first peek of the virus in April. Despite the nationwide lockdown, the rising number of coronavirus cases in the U.K. also weighed on the British Pound that ultimately added losses in the GBP/USD pair.

Moreover, the Bank of England policymaker Silvana Tenreyro announced on Monday that skipping British interest rates beneath zero could promote the economy by more than increasing bond purchases. The Bank of England was currently looking at Britain’s financial system’s negative rates’ technical feasibility. She said that she was pushing back against arguments that negative interest rates would be ineffective in boosting demand or would cause significant damage to the bank’s profitability. 

These dovish comments from Tenreyro weighed on British Pound that added losses in the GBP/USD currency pair on Monday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3496      1.3553

1.3475      1.3589

1.3439      1.3611

Pivot Point: 1.3532

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD has disrupted the sideways trading range of 1.3531- 1.3505 range on the higher side. Closing of candles above this area can trigger buying until the next resistance level of 1.3585 level. On the higher side, the resistance continues to stay at the 1.3605 mark. The 10 & 20 periods moving averages are suggesting odds of bullish trend continuation today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 104.239 after placing a high of 104.396 and a low of 103.848. The currency pair USD/JPY rose for the fourth consecutive session on Monday and reached its highest level since December 10. The gains in USD/JPY were due to the stronger greenback as the U.S. Dollar Index was at weekly highs above 90.50 level on Monday. Wall Street’s main indexes were down on Monday, with Dow Jones down by 0.37% and the NASDAQ by 0.85%. The U.S. Treasury yield on a 10-year note hit the 1.136% level, which was the highest level since the March spike.

The rising treasury yields were due to the rising hopes of additional stimulus measures from the incoming Democratic President Joe Biden. He has promised to deliver two massive stimulus packages to aid the economy through the coronavirus pandemic in 2021. He also has said that his first order after joining the office on January 20 will be to increase the number of stimulus checks to $2000 from $600, which will be given to most Americans affected by the coronavirus pandemic.

Other than that, the USD/JPY pair continued to rise despite the rising risk-off market sentiment in the market. Mainland China saw its most significant daily rise in coronavirus cases in over five months. China’s health authority said on Monday that the new infections in Hebei province surrounding Beijing were continuously rising.

China saw almost 18 new imported infections from overseas, and on Monday, the country in northeastern Heilongjiang province moved into lockdown after reporting new coronavirus infections. These developments in the world’s second-largest economy added weight to risk sentiment that ultimately supported the safe-haven greenback and pushed the USD/JPY pair higher.

Meanwhile, the calls for Trump’s impeachment raised after he encouraged his supporters’ riots on Capitol Hill during the previous week that also kept the market sentiment soar. In Washington, the speaker of House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, called for Vice President Mike Pence and the cabinet to remove Donald Trump from office before moving to impeachment. This also helped raised the risk-off market sentiment and supported the USD/JPY pair’s upward momentum.

Furthermore, on Monday, the President and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Raphael Bostic, said that interest rates could rise sooner than anticipated as the economy was recovering more quickly than projected from the coronavirus damage. 

Fed had previously hoped that rates would remain unchanged until at least 2023, whereas Bostic believes that the Fed’s emergency measures to fight the pandemic can start to be rolled back within the next two years, if not sooner. These comments from Bostic supported the U.S. dollar and added gains in the USD/JPY pair. However, the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech on Thursday and reaffirm interest rates to stay around zero through at least 2023.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

103.90      104.17

103.74      104.26

103.64      104.43

Pivot Point: 104.00

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Tuesday, the safe-haven currency pair USD/JPY is trading at 104.123 level, facing resistance at 104.400. On the 4 hour timeframe, the USD/JPY pair implies bullish bias, and as the 10 and 20 EMA are in support of upward trend whereas the MACD stays over 0, suggesting a bullish trend in the safe-haven USD/JPY pair. An upward breakout of the 104.223 level can extend the buying trend until the 104.610 level today. Let’s consider taking the buying trade over the 104.223 level and selling below the same. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave Forex Market Analysis

Is US Dollar Index Ready for a Rally?

The US Dollar Index reveals exhaustion signals of its bearish trend. A trend that remains in progress since the currency basket topped at 102.992 pm mid-March 2020. Follow with us what signs show the Greenback to expect a rally during the first quarter of the year.

The US Dollar Index reveals exhaustion signals of its bearish trend. A trend that remains in progress since the currency basket topped at 102.992 pm mid-March 2020. Follow with us what signs show the Greenback to expect a rally during the first quarter of the year.

The US Dollar Index reveals exhaustion signals of its bearish trend. A trend that remains in progress since the currency basket topped at 102.992 pm mid-March 2020. Follow with us what signs show the Greenback to expect a rally during the first quarter of the year.

Technical Overview

The big picture of the US Dollar Index (DXY) illustrated in the next weekly chart reveals the downtrend that remains active since the price found fresh sellers at 102.992 in mid-March 2020. The following figure also exposes the market participants’ sentiment represented by the 52-week high and low range.

The previous figure shows the extreme bearish sentiment dominating the big participants’ bias since mid-March 2020. Nevertheless, the long-tailed candlestick corresponding to the last trading week that was closed above the yearly opening, suggests the bearish trend’s exhaustion in progress.

On the other hand, the reading -4.26 observed in the EMA(52) to Close Index suggests the currency basket is oversold; thus, a potential corrective rally could occur in the coming weeks.

The mid-term Elliott wave view of the US Dollar Index exposed in the next 8-hour chart suggests completing an extended third wave of Minute degree labeled in black, when the price found support at 89.209 on January 06th.

Once the price found support, the price started to bounce, developing an incomplete wave (a) of Minuette degree identified in blue, which belongs to wave ((iv)) in black. Finally, the momentum and timing oscillator suggests that the bearish pressure persists, and the current upward movement could correspond to a corrective rally.

Technical Outlook

The mid-term outlook for the US Dollar Index unfolded in the next 8-hour chart shows the incomplete wave ((iv)) in black, which advances in wave (a) identified in blue. In this context, the current climb experienced by the Greenback could be a corrective rally.

According to Elliott Wave theory, the fourth wave in progress could retrace to 50% of wave ((iii)),  and reach 91.205. Likewise, considering that the second wave was a simple correction in terms of price and time, the current fourth wave should be complex in terms of price, time, or both. 

On the other hand, if the price extends beyond 50%, this could indicate weakness in the bearish pressure. If the price action advances above 92.107, the bearish scenario will be invalidated leading us to expect more upward movement.

In summary

The US Dollar Index completed a bearish third wave of Minute degree at 89.209 on January 06th, when it began to bounce, starting an upward corrective rally that remains in progress. The current intraday movement could reach 91.206 where the price could complete its wave (a) of Minuette degree labeled in blue. On the other hand, considering the alternation principle, the current corrective formation, the structure should be complex in terms of price, time, or both. Finally, the bearish scenario’s invalidation level locates at 92.107, corresponding to the end of wave ((i)) in black.

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Forex Signals

EUR/USD Downward Channel in Play – Sell Signal Update!

The strength in the U.S. dollar also dragged the EUR/USD pair lower to the 1.2175 level. For the moment, the EUR/USD is gaining support at the 1.2175 level, and below this, it can dip further until the 1.2130 level. On the higher side, the pair may face resistance at the 1.2216 level. The RSI and MACD support bullish correction, and these may cause a bounce off in the EUR/USD pair until the 1.2216 level. Below 1.2216, we can again see a dip in EUR/USD.

The strength in the U.S. dollar also dragged the EUR/USD pair lower to the 1.2175 level. For the moment, the EUR/USD is gaining support at the 1.2175 level, and below this, it can dip further until the 1.2130 level. On the higher side, the pair may face resistance at the 1.2216 level. The RSI and MACD support bullish correction, and these may cause a bounce off in the EUR/USD pair until the 1.2216 level. Below 1.2216, we can again see a dip in EUR/USD.

The strength in the U.S. dollar also dragged the EUR/USD pair lower to the 1.2175 level. For the moment, the EUR/USD is gaining support at the 1.2175 level, and below this, it can dip further until the 1.2130 level. On the higher side, the pair may face resistance at the 1.2216 level. The RSI and MACD support bullish correction, and these may cause a bounce off in the EUR/USD pair until the 1.2216 level. Below 1.2216, we can again see a dip in EUR/USD.


Entry Price – Sell1.21603
Stop Loss – 1.22003
Take Profit – 1.21103
Risk to Reward – 1:1
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40
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Forex Signals

AUD/USD Violates Ascending Triangle – Double Bottom Support! 

The AUD/USD closed at 0.77665 after placing a high of 0.77984 and a low of 0.77280. The currency pair AUD/USD remained flat throughout the day on Friday and closed its day at the same level it began its day with as the risk rally pushed the pair higher and the US dollar strength dragged the pair AUD/USD lower at the same time. 

The AUD/USD closed at 0.77665 after placing a high of 0.77984 and a low of 0.77280. The currency pair AUD/USD remained flat throughout the day on Friday and closed its day at the same level it began its day with as the risk rally pushed the pair higher and the US dollar strength dragged the pair AUD/USD lower at the same time. 

The AUD/USD closed at 0.77665 after placing a high of 0.77984 and a low of 0.77280. The currency pair AUD/USD remained flat throughout the day on Friday and closed its day at the same level it began its day with as the risk rally pushed the pair higher and the US dollar strength dragged the pair AUD/USD lower at the same time. 

The risk-sensitive Aussie just went with the flow and boosted by rallying equities and persistent hopes that the economic chaos triggered by the coronavirus pandemic was on its final stage. The risk sentiment in the market was also supported by the latest announcement from the UK on Friday. The UK announced that it’s medical regulatory has approved a third vaccine for coronavirus made by Moderna for emergency use authorization. 

The rising risk sentiment was also supported by the decreasing political risk in Washington related to power transition. The US President Donald Trump has agreed to a transition of power, and this has raised the risk sentiment in the market and supported the upward momentum in AUD/USD pair in the early trading session. However, the AUD/USD pair’s gains were lost in the late trading hours on Friday after the US Dollar became strong across the board. The greenback was high on Friday, with the US Dollar Index above the 90.00 level for the first time this week. The US treasury yields on the 10-year note were also high on Friday, with 3% up for the day and 21% up for the week. All these factors added to the US dollar demand that ultimately weighed on AUD/USD pair and forced the pair to lose its early daily gains.

On the data front, from the US side, at 18:30 GMT, the Average Hourly Earnings for December raised to 0.8% against the predicted 0.2% and supported the US dollar that added further weight to AUD/USD pair. In December, the Non-Farm Employment Change plunged to -140K against the predicted 60K and weighed on the US dollar. During December, the Unemployment Rate plunged to 6.7% against the predicted 6.8% and supported the US dollar that added further AUD/USD pair losses. At 20:00 GMT, the Final Wholesales Inventories for November came in as 0.0% against the predicted -0.1% and weighed on the US dollar.

The AUD/USD pair remained flat throughout Friday amid the mixed market sentiment and left the investors to await the publication of the final reading of November Retail Sales from Australia while China will provide an update on inflation that will also remain under close observation by AUD/USD investors. 

On Thursday, China will release its December Trade Balance that may also impact AUD/USD pair. The US’s CPI data on Wednesday and Retail Sales on Thursday will also affect the AUD/USD pair’s momentum in upcoming days.


Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

0.7700 0.7755

0.7679 0.7789

0.7645 0.7811

Pivot point: 0.7734

The AUD/USD pair has bounced off over the 0.7690 level, forming a bullish engulfing candle on the 2-hour timeframe. It may bounce off to trade until the 0.7740 level, where 10 & 20 periods EMA are likely to extend resistance at 0.7740. On the lower side, the AUD/USD may find support at the 0.7690 level. A bearish breakout of 0.7690 level can extend the selling trend until the next support area of 0.765 level today. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 11 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Stronger Dollar In Play! 

On the news side, the European Sentix Investor Confidence will be in focus, along with speeches from UK MPC Member Tenreyro, and the U.S. FOMC Member Bostic will remain in highlights. The U.S. dollar was also strong on the board, mainly because of the rising U.S. treasury yields that rose more than 3% on the day. The unemployment rate and average hourly earnings data from the U.S. support the greenback. 

On the news side, the European Sentix Investor Confidence will be in focus, along with speeches from UK MPC Member Tenreyro, and the U.S. FOMC Member Bostic will remain in highlights. The U.S. dollar was also strong on the board, mainly because of the rising U.S. treasury yields that rose more than 3% on the day. The unemployment rate and average hourly earnings data from the U.S. support the greenback. 

On the news side, the European Sentix Investor Confidence will be in focus, along with speeches from UK MPC Member Tenreyro, and the U.S. FOMC Member Bostic will remain in highlights. The U.S. dollar was also strong on the board, mainly because of the rising U.S. treasury yields that rose more than 3% on the day. The unemployment rate and average hourly earnings data from the U.S. support the greenback. 

Economic Events to Watch Today  

  

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.22122 after placing a high of 1.22844 and a low of 1.21928. The EUR/USD pair dropped on Friday and extended its losses amid the broad-based strength of the U.S. dollar on the day amid the rising U.S. Treasury yields.

The U.S. dollar was also strong on the board, mainly because of the rising U.S. treasury yields that rose more than 3% on the day. The unemployment rate and Average Hourly earnings data from the U.S. also supported the greenback that ultimately added further losses in the currency pair EUR/USD. From the U.S. side, at 18:30 GMT, the Average Hourly Earnings for December rose to 0.8% against the forecasted 0.2% and supported the U.S. dollar and weighed on EUR/USD prices. In December, the Non-Farm Employment Change fell to -140K against the forecasted 60K and weighed on the U.S. dollar and capped further losses in EUR/USD pair. 

During December, the Unemployment Rate fell to 6.7% against the forecasted 6.8% and supported the U.S. dollar that added further EUR/USD pair losses. At 20:00 GMT, the Final Wholesales Inventories for November came in as 0.0% against the forecasted -0.1% and weighed on the U.S. dollar that limited the losses in EUR/USD pair on Friday.

Meanwhile, the fact that Democratic leader and incoming President Joe Biden will have complete control over all three legislative houses included the White House, the House of Representatives, and the Senate, also supported the U.S. dollar as it suggested a stable government ahead. The U.S. President Donald Trump also agreed to an orderly transition of power that also lifted the lingering political risk from the local currency and gave further strength to the U.S. dollar that ultimately added further pressure on the EUR/USD pair on Friday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.2228     1.2330

1.2186     1.2388

1.2127     1.2431

Pivot Point: 1.2287

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The strength in the U.S. dollar also dragged the EUR/USD pair lower to the 1.2175 level. For the moment, the EUR/USD is gaining support at the 1.2175 level, and below this, it can dip further until the 1.2130 level. On the higher side, the pair may face resistance at the 1.2216 level. The RSI and MACD support bullish correction, and these may cause a bounce off in the EUR/USD pair until the 1.2216 level. Below 1.2216, we can again see a dip in EUR/USD.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.35606 after placing a high of 1.36356 and a low of 1.35382. The currency pair GBP/USD remained flat throughout Friday as it showed no movement and closed the day at the same level it started its day with. The pair GBP/USD raised during the early trading session on the day but faced some heavy pressure during the second half of the day and closed the trading week at the same level it started its day on Friday. The rise in the early trading session was caused after the U.K. announced the approval to use its third coronavirus vaccine. However, the downward pressure on the currency pair was caused by the relative strength of the U.S. dollar amid the rising U.S. Treasury yields on the day.

After the coronavirus press conference of the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Friday, the PM announced that the army would be brought in to help aid the vaccination rollout. On Friday, Britain’s medical regulatory approved Moderna’s coronavirus vaccine for emergency use. The U.K. also agreed to purchase an additional 10 million doses; however, the Moderna vaccine will not play a part in the first stage of Britain’s vaccine rollout.

The Health Minister of Britain, Matt Hancock, said that about 1.5 million people have already been vaccinated across the U.K. and Moderna’ ‘s vaccine will allow them to accelerate their vaccination program even further once doses become available in spring. These comments from the U.K. added optimism and supported the GBP/USD pair to rise in the early trading session on Friday.

However, the gains in GBP/USD currency pair could not live for long as the pair faced heavy pressure from the U.S. dollar’s strength and the rising number of coronavirus cases and deaths across the U.K. despite vaccine rollout. The U.S. Dollar was strong across the board after the U.S. Treasury yields rose on Friday to more than 3% amid the full sweep victory of Democrats over the Senate. The incoming President Joe Biden is expected to have full control over the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives added in the local currency as the incoming government will have more stability in rules.

In the capital, London’s mayor declared a major incident on Friday and issued a warning that hospitals in the city were close to being overrun. London’s situation was critical with the spread of the virus out of control as the city was declared to be at a crisis point. These developments in the U.K. also added pressure on British Pound and dragged the pair lower on Friday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3496     1.3553

1.3475     1.3589

1.3439     1.3611

Pivot Point: 1.3532

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD has violated the sideways trading range of 1.3625 – 1.3530 level, and closing of candles below this area can trigger selling until the next support level of 1.3452 level. On the higher side, the resistance continues to stay at the 1.3530 mark. On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has violated the descending triangle pattern at the 1.3547 level, and now this level is likely to provide selling in the pair. Violation of the triangle pattern can extend selling bias today.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 103.951 after placing a high of 104.090 and a low of 103.602. The USD/JPY pair raised on Friday and extended its gains as the U.S. dollar was strong across the board amid the rising U.S. Treasury bond yields. The USD/JPY pair staged an impressive rebound and rose more than 150 pips in two days as the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield placed almost 13% gains in these two days. Over the week, the 10-year note U.S. Treasury yield has risen by about 21% and has supported the greenback since then. 

The U.S. dollar’s strength added further gains in the USD/PY pair and extended its upward momentum on Friday to its highest since December 15. The U.S. Dollar Index was also high beyond the 90.00 level for the first time in the week and supported the USD/JPY pair’s rise. Meanwhile, another factor involved in the rising demand for the U.S. dollar was Donald Trump’s comments, who agreed on a smooth transition of power. The political risk related to transition power that rose after Thursday’s attack was lifted and supported the local currency on Friday that eventually helped the USD/JPY pair to rise further n board. It means that the incoming President Joe Biden will have control over all three legislative bodies, the White House, the House of Representatives, and the U.S. Senate, to give his Democratic Party stability in rules. 

Despite all these positive sentiments, the incoming president promised to deliver two massive stimulus packages in 2021, and his first order is expected to increase the direct payment checks to $2000 kept the local currency USD under pressure and capped further upside in the USD/JPY pair. 

On the data front, at 04:30 GMT, the Household Spending from Japan in November raised to 1.1% against the expected -1.0% and supported the Japanese Yen that capped further upside in the USD/JPY pair. At 10:00 GMT, the Leading Indicators from Japan remained flat at 96.6%. 

From the U.S. side, at 18:30 GMT, the Average Hourly Earnings for December advanced to 0.8% against the projected 0.2% and supported the U.S. dollar that pushed the USD/JPY pair higher. In December, the Non-Farm Employment Change decreased to -140K against the projected 60K and weighed on the U.S. dollar. During December, the Unemployment Rate decreased to 6.7% against the projected 6.8% and supported the U.S. dollar that added further gains in the USD/JPY pair. At 20:00 GMT, the Final Wholesales Inventories for November came in as 0.0% against the projected -0.1% and weighed on the U.S. dollar that capped further upside in the USD/JPY pair on Friday. Furthermore, the USD/JPY pair’s upward momentum was also supported by the rising risk sentiment in the market. The risk flows were encouraged after the U.K. approved another vaccine from Moderna on Friday. U.K. became the first country to approve a third coronavirus vaccine for emergency use authorization that lifted the market’s risk sentiment that ultimately added weight on the safe-haven Japanese Yen and pushed the USD/JPY pair even higher on board.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

103.18     104.19

102.56     104.58

102.16     105.21

Pivot Point: 103.57

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading at 104.123 level, facing immediate resistance at 104.223. On the 4 hour timeframe, the USD/JPY pair suggests bullish bias, and as the 10 and 20 periods, EMA is in support of buying trend while the MACD holds above 0, supporting bullish bias in the USD/JPY pair. A bullish breakout of the 104.223 level can extend the buying trend until the 104.610 level today. Let’s consider taking the buying trade over the 104.223 level and selling below the same. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave Forex Market Analysis

USDCAD Bullish Divergence in a Complex Corrective Formation; What’s next?

The big picture of the USDCAD pair shows a bullish divergence suggesting the exhaustion of the current bearish trend that remains active since past March 2020 when the price topped at 1.46674 and began to decline in a complex corrective pattern. Follow with us what’s next for Lonnie.

The big picture of the USDCAD pair shows a bullish divergence suggesting the exhaustion of the current bearish trend that remains active since past March 2020 when the price topped at 1.46674 and began to decline in a complex corrective pattern. Follow with us what’s next for Lonnie.

The big picture of the USDCAD pair shows a bullish divergence suggesting the exhaustion of the current bearish trend that remains active since past March 2020 when the price topped at 1.46674 and began to decline in a complex corrective pattern. Follow with us what’s next for Lonnie.

Technical Overview

The long-term Elliott wave view of the USDCAD pair unfolded in its 2-day chart and log-scale, illustrates a downward movement that began on the second half of March 2020 when the price found fresh sellers at level 1.46674. Once the price topped, the Lonnie started to decline in a complex corrective formation identified as a double-three pattern (3-3-3) of Minor degree labeled in green.

According to the textbook, the double-three pattern characterizes itself by following an internal sequence subdivided into 3-3-3, each “three” a complete corrective formation. In this regard, the previous figure shows the price action moving in the third segment of the double-tree pattern corresponding to its wave Y. Also, the lower degree structural sequence reveals the progress in its wave ((c)) of Minute degree identified in black.

On the other hand, the technical indicators support the bearish bias that dominates the downtrend, persisting since March 2020. Both the trend and the momentum oscillators confirm the downtrend in progress. Nevertheless, the timing oscillator shows a bullish divergence plotted in green. This reading suggests the exhaustion of the bearish trend. In this context, the candlesticks formations observed in the last chart remains weighting declines over rallies.

Technical Outlook

The short-term outlook for USDCAD exposed in the next 8-hour chart reveals the incomplete downward advance corresponding to wave ((c)) of Minute degree identified in black, suggesting a potential new decline.

The figure illustrates the downward channel in play that connects the extremes of waves (i)-(iii) and (ii)-(iv) Minuette degree identified in blue. The Elliott Wave theory suggests that the penetration below the base-line between waves (i) and (iii) could reveal the end of wave (v). In this regard, a potential new decline could strike the area bounded between 1.2585 and 1.2425. Likewise, the gap between momentum and timing oscillators supports the likely additional downward move in the USDCAD pair. 

In summary, the USDCAD advances in a downward complex corrective sequence identified as a double-three pattern of Minor degree, which looks running in its wave Y. Simultaneously, the internal structure reveals the progress in its wave ((c)) of Minute degree, which could see a new drop to the potential target area between 1.2585 and 1.2425. Finally, the bearish scenario will invalidate if the price soars and closes above 1.27980.

Categories
Forex Signals

AUD/USD Ascending Triangle Pattern – NFP Figures Ahead! 

The AUD/USD pair was closed at 0.77661 after placing a high of 0.78171 and a low of 0.77661. After rising for two consecutive days, the AUD/USD pair dropped on Thursday amid the US dollar’s strength and rising safe-haven demand in the market.

The AUD/USD pair was closed at 0.77661 after placing a high of 0.78171 and a low of 0.77661. After rising for two consecutive days, the AUD/USD pair dropped on Thursday amid the US dollar’s strength and rising safe-haven demand in the market.

The AUD/USD pair was closed at 0.77661 after placing a high of 0.78171 and a low of 0.77661. After rising for two consecutive days, the AUD/USD pair dropped on Thursday amid the US dollar’s strength and rising safe-haven demand in the market.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) recovered from its 2-years lowest level and reached 89.85 and supported the greenback as the US treasury yield on a 10-year note also raised from 1% for the first time since March and supported the rising demand for the US dollar. The strength of the US dollar then added weight to AUD/USD pair on Thursday.

On the data front, at 05:30 GMT, the Building Approvals from November raised to 2.6% against the expected 1.9% and supported the Australian dollar that capped further losses in AUD/USD pair. The Trade Balance from Australia showed a surplus of 5.02B against the expected 6.45B and weighed n Australian dollars that ultimately added the AUD/USD pair’s losses. From the US side, at 17:30 GMT, the Challenger Job Cuts for the year in December increased to 134.5% compared to November’s 45.4%. At 18:30 GMT, the Unemployment Claims from last week fell to 787K against the projections of 798K and supported the US dollar that added further losses in AUD/USD pair. The Trade Balance from November showed a deficit of -68.1B against the projected -66.7B and weighed on the US dollar that capped further downside in AUD/USD pair. At 20:00 GMT, the ISM Services PMI rose in December to 57.2 against the projected 54.5 and supported the US dollar that added further losses in AUD/USD pair.

Meanwhile, the safe-haven demand rose after Donald Trump’s supporters stormed the US capitol in an attack. This was done after the US Congress certified Joe Biden’s victory in the presidential election. This attack resulted in four casualties and raised the safe-haven appeal that ultimately weighed on the risk perceived Australian dollar that added losses in AUD/USD pair.

Furthermore, the FOMC member and President of the Federal Reserve of Atlanta Raphael Bostic said that the US Federal Reserve might reduce its asset purchase program sooner than expected. These hawkish comments gave strength to the US dollar that added more AUD/USD pair losses on Thursday.


Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

0.7722 0.7816

0.7676 0.7864

0.7628 0.7910

Pivot Point: 0.7770

The AUD/USD pair trades with a bullish bias at the 0.7782 level, having formed an ascending triangle pattern on the hourly timeframe. On the higher side, the pair is likely to face resistance at a 0.7818 level, along with a support level of 0.7737. The AUD/USD pair may continue trading bullish as 50 periods EMA is extending support to Aussie around 0.7764 level. Good luck! 

 

Categories
Forex Signals

USD/CAD Forms Descending Triangle Pattern – Brace for a Breakout Setup! 

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.26879 after placing a high of 1.27334 and a low of 1.26633. The USD/CAD pair rose on Thursday due to a strong rebound of the US dollar and Canada’s negative economic data.

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.26879 after placing a high of 1.27334 and a low of 1.26633. The USD/CAD pair rose on Thursday due to a strong rebound of the US dollar and Canada’s negative economic data.

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.26879 after placing a high of 1.27334 and a low of 1.26633. The USD/CAD pair rose on Thursday due to a strong rebound of the US dollar and Canada’s negative economic data.

The US Dollar Index that measures the value of the greenback against the basket of six major currencies recovered from the 2-years lowest level and came back to 89.85 level on Thursday after rising for 0.35% and gave strength to the US dollar against its Canadian counterpart that eventually lifted USD/CAD pair on board. Wall Street’s main indexes were also high on Thursday, with Dow Jones gaining about 1.7% and NASDAQ gaining about 2.25% on Thursday.

The US treasury yield on a 10-year note was also raised on Thursday above 1% for the first time since March, which also gave strength to the US dollar and raised the USD/CAD pair. Whereas the Canadian dollar was weak onboard on the day despite trading softer against its US counterpart, the Loonie was also underperforming against most of its G10 peers. 

Markets continued pricing the prospects of much more spending from the US government over the coming months and years under the Democratic leader Joe Biden. This increased the expectations of higher US economic growth and higher inflation, hence why US stocks, nominal US bond yields, and US inflation break-evens were higher on Thursday.

On the data front, at 18:30 GMT, the Trade Balance from Canada for November showed a deficit of -3.3B against the expected -3.6B and supported the Canadian dollar that capped further upside in the USD/CAD pair. At 20:00 GMT, the Ivey PMI from Canada for December declined to 46.7 against the expected 53.1 and weighed on the Canadian dollar, which ultimately added strength to the USD/CAD pair’s bullish momentum.

From the US side, at 17:30 GMT, the Challenger Job Cuts for the year in December advanced to 134.5% compared to November’s 45.4%. At 18:30 GMT, the Unemployment Claims from last week were plunged to 787K against the estimated 798K and supported the US dollar that added gains in USD/CAD pair. The Trade Balance from November showed a deficit of -68.1B against the estimated-66.7B and weighed on the US dollar that capped further upside in the USD/CAD pair. At 20:00 GMT, the ISM Services PMI advanced in December to 57.2 against the estimated 54.5 and supported the US dollar that added further gains in the USD/CAD pair on Thursday.

On the other hand, the WTI crude oil prices surpassed the $51 per barrel on Thursday and gave strength to commodity-linked currency Loonie that lost most of the gains from the USD/CAD pair on Thursday in late trading hours.


Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.2653 1.2727

1.2621 1.2767

1.2580 1.2800

Pivot Point: 1.2694

The commodity currency pair USD/CAD is trading with a neutral bias at the 1.2692 level, facing immediate resistance at the 1.2742 level. The USD/CAD pair may find resistance at the 1.2742 level on the hourly timeframe, and closing of a candle below this level may trigger selling until the 1.2640 level. The MACD and RSI are suggesting buying trends, along with 50 periods EMA. I will be looking to take a sell trade around the 1.2745 level today. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 08 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – U.S. NFP Figures Ahead! 

The eyes will remain on the U.S. NFP data on the news side, which is expected to report a slight drop from 638K to 500K during the previous month. Besides, the U.S. Average Hourly Earnings m/m and Unemployment Rate will also remain the main highlight of the day, and these may determine the USD trend for today and next week. Let’s wait for the news.

The eyes will remain on the U.S. NFP data on the news side, which is expected to report a slight drop from 638K to 500K during the previous month. Besides, the U.S. Average Hourly Earnings m/m and Unemployment Rate will also remain the main highlight of the day, and these may determine the USD trend for today and next week. Let’s wait for the news.

The eyes will remain on the U.S. NFP data on the news side, which is expected to report a slight drop from 638K to 500K during the previous month. Besides, the U.S. Average Hourly Earnings m/m and Unemployment Rate will also remain the main highlight of the day, and these may determine the USD trend for today and next week. Let’s wait for the news.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.22690 after placing a high of 1.23442 and a low of 1.22449. The EUR/USD pair came under renewed pressure as the U.S. dollar rebounded after an increased 10-year U.S. treasury yield and the depressing economic data from the Eurozone. The U.S. Dollar was strong onboard after falling to the multi-year lowest level this week amid the rising U.S. Treasury yield on a 10-year note that raised by 1% for the first time since March. The rising demand for the greenback ultimately added weight on EUR/USD pair that fell on Thursday.

However, the strong demand for the U.S. dollar is expected not to live for a large time as the Democratic win in the U.S. Senate elections has raised the prospects for a larger stimulus package that will ultimately weigh on the local currency. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank released the regular economic bulletin on Thursday in which it said that the Eurozone economic indicators point to an economic contraction in the final quarter of 2020. 

The ECB said that high-frequency indicators and the latest survey results were consistent with a fall in GDP in the final quarter of 2020. The survey indicators point to a renewed contraction in activity mainly affecting the services sector. The ECB also said that the stat of vaccinations supports expectations for a rapid recovery. Still, it will take time before widespread immunity could be reached and the economy could return to normal. These depressing comments from ECB also added weight on the single currency Euro that added further pressure on EUR/USD pair on Thursday.

On the data front, at 12:00 GMT, the German Factory Orders in November raised to 2.3% against the expectations of -0.6% and supported the single currency Euro that capped further downside in EUR/USD pair. At 15:00 GMT, the CPI Flash Estimate for the year for December declined to -0.3% against the expected -0.2% and weighed on Euro that added losses in EUR/USD pair. The Core CPI Flash Estimate remained flat with expectations of 0.2%. The Italian Prelim CPI also raised to 0.3%against the forecasted 0.2% and supported Euro and capped further downside in EUR/USD pair. The Retail Sales from Eurozone dropped to -6.1% against the forecasted -3.4% and weighed heavily on Euro that added further downside pressure on EUR/USD pair.

The Challenger Job Cuts for the year in December rose to 134.5% compared to November’s 45.4%. At 18:30 GMT, the Unemployment Claims from last week were dropped to 787K against the expected 798K and supported the U.S. dollar that added losses in EUR/USD pair. The Trade Balance from November showed a deficit of -68.1B against the expected -66.7B and weighed on the U.S. dollar that capped further downside in EUR/USD pair. The ISM Services PMI rose in December to 57.2 against the expected 54.5 and supported the U.S. dollar that added further losses in EUR/USD pair on Thursday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.2228      1.2330

1.2186      1.2388

1.2127      1.2431

Pivot Point: 1.2287

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD continues trading with a bullish bias at 1.2367, facing resistance at the 1.2350 level. On the lower side, the support continues to hold around the 1.2278 level. Simultaneously, the bullish breakout of the 1.2350 resistance level can extend buying until the 1.2435 level. The leading indicators such as RSI and MACD support selling, but the EUR/USD 50 periods EMA is likely to support at 1.2289. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.35641 after placing a high of 1.36330 and a low of 1.35324. The GBP/USD pair extended its losses on Thursday amid the broad-based U.S. dollar recovery amid the rising safe-haven demand and the British Pound’s weakness due to the rising deaths from a new coronavirus variant. Since March, the U.S. Dollar was high on board after the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose by more than 1% for the first time. The U.S. Dollar Index that measures the value of the greenback against the basket of six major currencies also recovered from the multi-year lowest level and supported the U.S. dollar that ultimately added weight on the GBP/USD pair on Thursday.

Moreover, the U.S. dollar gains were limited as the pressure of prospects of a larger stimulus package in 2021 from the Democratic government held the local currency down. The Democratic win in the U.S. Senate elections raised the anticipations that President-elect Joe Biden will stand true to His promises for delivering two major stimulus packages in 2021. 

However, the losses in the GBP/USD pair could also be attributed to the rising number of deaths in the U.K. from the new UK coronavirus variant. The U.K. reported a further 1041 fatalities due to coronavirus, which is the highest daily death toll since April. 

On Thursday, about 62,322 new coronavirus cases were recorded, which was also the highest daily rise since mass testing began. The rising spread of coronavirus due to its new variant and the increased number of deaths despite the nationwide lockdown and vaccine rollout raised fears for the newly independent nation Great Britain’s economy that ultimately weighed on the local currency Sterling and dragged the currency pair GBP/USD on the downside.

Furthermore, the World Health Organization (WHO) called on European countries to intensify coronavirus measures as the region deals with the new UK-detected variant. On Thursday, the WHO Europe director Hans Kluge said that further measures were needed to flatten the steep vertical line of rising cases in some countries. Moreover, the French Prime Minister Jean Castex said that France’s border with the U.K. will remain shut and that it was out of the question to lower their guard in weeks to come. These statements also weighed on British Pound and affected the GBP/USD pair’s movement on Thursday.

The Construction PMI for December from Great Britain came in line with the expectations of 54.6. At 14:32 GMT, the Housing Equity Withdrawal for the quarter also remained flat with the expectations of -7.0B. The Challenger Job Cuts for the year in December surged to 134.5% compared to November’s 45.4%. At 18:30 GMT, the Unemployment Claims from last week fell to 787K against the projected 798K and supported the U.S. dollar that added losses in GBP/USD pair. The Trade Balance from November showed a deficit of -68.1B against the projected -66.7B and weighed on the U.S. dollar that capped further downside in GBP/USD pair. The ISM Services PMI surged in December to 57.2 against the projected 54.5 and supported the U.S. dollar that added further GBP/USD pair losses on Thursday.

The GBP/USD pair’s losses were limited as the U.K. government was trying to increase the vaccination supply to control coronavirus spread. The health minister Matt Hancock has said on Thursday that the Britain government was working with both Pfizer and AstraZeneca to increase supplies as the pace of Britain’s rollout of coronavirus vaccines was being limited by the supply of shots. He said that the government must quickly ramp up the rate of vaccinations to meet an ambitious target to protect more than 13 million people who were elderly, vulnerable, or frontline workers by mid-February. 

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3518      1.3620

1.3474      1.3678

1.3416      1.3722

Pivot Point: 1.3576

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD pair continues to consolidate in a narrow trading range of 1.3625 – 1.3556. The Sterling may face immediate resistance at the 1.3625 level, and the continuation of an upward trend can lead the Cable towards the 1.3700 resistance level. On the lower side, the breakout of 1.3545 support can extend the selling trend until the 1.3468 level.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 103.824 after placing a high of 103.955 and a low of 102.948. The USD/JPY pair rose to its highest level since mid-December on Thursday amid the broad-based strength of the U.S. dollar. The USD/JPY pair’s bullish momentum was supported by the stronger U.S. dollar driven by the rising 10-year U.S. Treasury yields. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose to 1.085% on Thursday that was the highest level since March. On Wall Street, the main indexes were also at record highs as Dow Jones gained about 1.7% and NASDAQ gained about 2.25% on Thursday.

The rising risk sentiment because of the rally in the stock market and the U.S. treasury yield, along with the rising crude oil prices, added weight on the safe-haven Japanese Yen that ultimately pushed the currency pair USD/JPY higher onboard to 4 weeks highest level. The U.S. Dollar Index was also up from the multi-year lowest level on Thursday and moved near 89.85 and was up 0.35% for the day. The rising demand for the greenback pushed the currency pair USD/JPY higher on the board.

However, the U.S. dollar demand is expected not to live for a longer period as the Democratic win in U.S. Senate elections has raised the prospects for a larger stimulus package. Joe Biden, who will begin his term from January 20th, has promised to deliver about two large stimulus measures this year, ultimately hurting local currency.

On the data front, at 04:30 GMT, the Average Cash Earnings for the year from Japan dropped to -2.2% against the projection of -0.9% and weighed on the Japanese Yen that ultimately added further gains in the USD/JPY pair. From the U.S. side, at 17:30 GMT, the Challenger Job Cuts for the year in December increased to 134.5% compared to November’s 45.4%. At 18:30 GMT, the Unemployment Claims from last week were decreased to 787K against the anticipated 798K and supported the U.S. dollar that added further gains in the USD/JPY pair. The Trade Balance from November showed a deficit of -68.1B against the anticipated -66.7B and weighed on the U.S. dollar that capped further upside in the USD/JPY pair. At 20:00 GMT, the ISM Services PMI increased in December to 57.2 against the forecasted 54.5 and supported the U.S. dollar that added further gains in the USD/JPY pair.

Meanwhile, on Thursday, the Federal Reserve released its FOMC December meeting minutes that revealed that the Federal Reserve officials consistently backed, holding the pace of asset purchases stable, while some were open to future adjustments if needed. Minutes also revealed that all participants judged that it would be appropriate to continue those purchases at least at the current pace. Nearly all members favored keeping the current arrangement of purchases. The Federal Open Market Committee kept interest rates near zero. It supported its commitment to bond-buying at the meeting after vowing to maintain a $120 billion monthly pace of purchases until there will be considered further progress towards inflation goals and employment. The FOMC meeting minutes also supported the local currency U.S. dollar and added further upside in the USD/JPY pair on Thursday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

103.18     104.19

102.56     104.58

102.16     105.21

Pivot Point: 103.57

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY consolidates below 103.950 level, after bouncing off above 103.528 support level. A bullish breakout of 103.950 can lead the USD/JPY pair to the 104.322 level. The 50 periods EMA is expected to keep the USD/JPY support at 103.355, which is very far from the current market price; thus, we can also expect some bearish correction. The market may show further movements upon the release of U.S. NFP figures today. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

USD/CAD Downward Trendline to Provide Resistance – Sell Trade in Play! 

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.26766 after placing a high of 1.27234 and a low of 1.26297. Despite the continuous rise in crude oil prices, the USD/CAD pair posted gains on Wednesday amid the rebound in US dollar prices. After the two-day OPEC+ meeting, Saudi Arabia announced that they would be voluntarily cutting their output in February and March that will amount to 1 million barrels per day. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) ‘s barrel gained more than 5% and preserved its bullish momentum on Wednesday. The Crude oil prices reached $50.9 per barrel on Wednesday to their highest level in more than ten months and gave strength to commodity-linked Loonie that capped further upside in the currency pair USD/CAD pair.

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.26766 after placing a high of 1.27234 and a low of 1.26297. Despite the continuous rise in crude oil prices, the USD/CAD pair posted gains on Wednesday amid the rebound in US dollar prices. After the two-day OPEC+ meeting, Saudi Arabia announced that they would be voluntarily cutting their output in February and March that will amount to 1 million barrels per day. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) ‘s barrel gained more than 5% and preserved its bullish momentum on Wednesday. The Crude oil prices reached $50.9 per barrel on Wednesday to their highest level in more than ten months and gave strength to commodity-linked Loonie that capped further upside in the currency pair USD/CAD pair.

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.26766 after placing a high of 1.27234 and a low of 1.26297. Despite the continuous rise in crude oil prices, the USD/CAD pair posted gains on Wednesday amid the rebound in US dollar prices. After the two-day OPEC+ meeting, Saudi Arabia announced that they would be voluntarily cutting their output in February and March that will amount to 1 million barrels per day. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) ‘s barrel gained more than 5% and preserved its bullish momentum on Wednesday. The Crude oil prices reached $50.9 per barrel on Wednesday to their highest level in more than ten months and gave strength to commodity-linked Loonie that capped further upside in the currency pair USD/CAD pair.

The US Dollar recovered on Wednesday across the board amid the rising US treasury yields followed by the prospects of a Democratic win in US Senate elections. The US Treasury yield on a 10-year note raised more than 1% on Wednesday to its highest level since March and supported the recovery in the US dollar that ultimately added gains in the USD/CAD pair.

On the data front, From the US side, at 18:15 GMT, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change for December plunged to -123K against the estimated 60K and weighed on the US dollar and capped further gains in the USD/CAD pair. At 19:45 GMT, the Final Services PMI for December also plunged to 54.8 against the estimated 55.2 and weighed on the US dollar that limited the upward momentum in the USD/CAD pair. At 20:00 GMT, the Factory Orders for November advanced to 1.0% against the estimated 0.7% and supported the US dollar that added further gains in the USD/CAD pair on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, the USD/CAD pair’s gains remained consolidated as the US dollar came under pressure after the prospects of a Democratic win in the US Senate elections increased. Wining the two seats in Senate by Democrats will give them control over both chambers of Congress that means they could get their agenda passed with the majority. The market participants kept betting over the prospects of larger stimulus measure after the victory of Democrats in runoff elections in Georgia and kept the US dollar under pressure that limited the gains in the USD/CAD pair on Wednesday. Market participants now await the release of meeting minutes from FOMC and the NFP report from the US that will release on Friday and Canada’s labor data.


Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.2619 1.2758

1.2568 1.2844

1.2481 1.2896

Pivot Point: 1.2706

The USD/CAD pair is trading with a bullish bias at the 1.2725 level, facing immediate resistance at the 1.2742 level. The USD/CAD pair may find resistance at the 1.2742 level on the hourly timeframe, and closing of a candle below this level may trigger selling until the 1.2640 level. The MACD and RSI are suggesting buying trends, along with 50 periods EMA. I will be looking to take a sell trade around the 1.2745 level today. Good luck! 

 

Categories
Forex Signals

AUD/USD Breaks Below Upward Channel – Quick Update on Sell Singal! 

The AUD/USD pair was closed at 0.78063 after placing a high of 0.78199 and a low of 0.77329. The AUD/USD pair continued its bullish momentum on Wednesday and extended its gains amid the anticipated Democratic win in the US Senate runoff elections in Georgia. 

The AUD/USD pair was closed at 0.78063 after placing a high of 0.78199 and a low of 0.77329. The AUD/USD pair continued its bullish momentum on Wednesday and extended its gains amid the anticipated Democratic win in the US Senate runoff elections in Georgia. 

The AUD/USD pair was closed at 0.78063 after placing a high of 0.78199 and a low of 0.77329. The AUD/USD pair continued its bullish momentum on Wednesday and extended its gains amid the anticipated Democratic win in the US Senate runoff elections in Georgia. 

The rally on Wall Street, surging oil prices, and news Australians could receive the coronavirus vaccination as early as February saw local shares up on Wednesday. The risk sentiment was supported by the mentioned factors and supported the risk-sensitive Australian dollar that ultimately added the AUD/USD pair’s upward momentum.

The prospects of a Democratic win in the US Senate elections and the Australian Government announcement that it would begin vaccinating people against coronavirus from next month added to the risk rally that ultimately supported the AUD.USD prices on Wednesday.

The two main Indexes of Wall Street, Dow Jones, and NASDAQ, rose on Wednesday by 1.55% and 0.51%, respectively, and pushed the market’s risk sentiment higher than supported the risk-sensitive AUD/USD pair’s upward momentum. Furthermore, the risk sentiment was also supported by the rising prices of crude oil on Wednesday amid the Saudi government announcement of increasing the output cut in February and March. It also supported the risk perceived by Aussie and added further in its bullish movement for the day.

On the data front, From the US side, at 18:15 GMT, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change for December dropped to -123K against the predicted 60K and weighed on the US dollar that added further gains in AUD/USD pair. At 19:45 GMT, the Final Services PMI for December also declined to 54.8 against the predicted 55.2 and weighed on the US dollar that pushed the pair AUD.USD is higher on board. At 20:00 GMT, the Factory Orders for November rose to 1.0% against the predicted 0.7% and supported the US dollar that capped further gains in AUD/USD pair on Wednesday.


Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

0.7688 0.7806

0.7615 0.7851

0.7570 0.7924

Pivot Point: 0.7733

The AUD/USD pair has violated the upward channel at the 0.7780 level, and violation of this level has triggered a selling trend until the 0.7738 level. Our position is already in profit; we need to move our stop loss into the breakeven level. Check out a trade idea below. 

Entry Price – Sell 0.77578

Stop Loss – 0.77978

Take Profit – 0.77178

Risk to Reward – 1:1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

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Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Analysis, January 07 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eyes on Series of US and European Events! 

It’s going to be a busy day from the news front, as the market will be focusing on the German Factory Orders m/m, ECB Economic Bulletin, Retail Sales, and CPI figures from the Eurozone economy that can drive price action in the Euro pairs during the UK session. On the other hand, the dollar’s movement can be influenced by Unemployment Claims and ISM Services PMI scheduled to be released during the US session.

It’s going to be a busy day from the news front, as the market will be focusing on the German Factory Orders m/m, ECB Economic Bulletin, Retail Sales, and CPI figures from the Eurozone economy that can drive price action in the Euro pairs during the UK session. On the other hand, the dollar’s movement can be influenced by Unemployment Claims and ISM Services PMI scheduled to be released during the US session.

It’s going to be a busy day from the news front, as the market will be focusing on the German Factory Orders m/m, ECB Economic Bulletin, Retail Sales, and CPI figures from the Eurozone economy that can drive price action in the Euro pairs during the UK session. On the other hand, the dollar’s movement can be influenced by Unemployment Claims and ISM Services PMI scheduled to be released during the US session.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.23259 after placing a high of 1.23492 and a low of 1.22653. The depressed US dollar after the signs of a Democratic win in the US Senate runoff elections and the rebounded risk-on market sentiment helped EUR/USD pair to post gains on Wednesday.
The markets anticipated a Democratic win in the US Senate election in Georgia that would evacuate the track for a bigger fiscal stimulus package; the greenback came under pressure. Democrats won one US Senate race in Georgia and led in another on Wednesday, moving closer to a sweep in a Deep South state. The result will be announced on late Wednesday, and winning both seats by Democrats will give Congress control to power the President-elect Joe Biden’s policy goals.

Biden has said that he wanted two fiscal stimulus packages in 2021 to support his economy through the pandemic. His first order is expected to increase the stimulus paychecks amount to $2000 rejected by Republicans. These hopes kept the US dollar under pressure and supported the upward momentum in the EUR//USD pair.

On the data front, at 10:00 GMT, the German Prelim CPI for December dropped to 0.5% against the expected 0.6% and weighed on Euro and capped further upside in EUR/USD pair. At 12:45 GMT, the French Prelim CPI for December also dropped to 0.2% against the forecasted 0.4% and weighed on Euro. At 13:15 GMT, the Spanish Services PMI for December raised to 48.0 against the expected 44.5 and supported the single currency Euro and added further EUR/USD pair gains. At 13:45 GMT, the Italian Services PMI for December declined to 39.7 against the estimated 45.0 and weighed on the single currency Euro.

At 13:50 GMT, the French Final Services PMI came in line with the expectations of 49.1. At 13:55 GMT, the German Final Services PMI dropped to 47.0 against the anticipated 47.7 and weighed on Euro and capped further upside in EUR/USD pair. At 14:00 GMT, the Final Services PMI from Europe also fell to 46.4 against the forecasted 47.4 and weighed on Euro. At 15:00 GMT, the PPI for November from the Euro area raised to 0.4% against the expected 0.2% and supported Euro and gave strength to the EUR/USD pair’s rising prices.

From the US side, at 18:15 GMT, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change for December declined to -123K against the forecasted 60K and weighed on the US dollar that gave further gains to EUR/USD pair. At 19:45 GMT, the Final Services PMI for December also declined to 54.8 against the forecasted 55.2 and weighed on the US dollar and helped EUR/USD to rise further. At 20:00 GMT, the Factory Orders for November rose to 1.0% against the forecasted 0.7%, supported the US dollar, and capped further gains in EUR/USD pair.

Meanwhile, the market’s risk sentiment was improved after the resurgence in global manufacturing as shown in various surveys this week despite the rising coronavirus cases, which also gave strength to the risk perceived EUR/USD pair on Wednesday.


Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.2257      1.2318

1.2220      1.2344

1.2195      1.2380

Pivot point: 1.2282

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD continues trading with a bullish bias at 1.2367, facing resistance at the 1.2350 level. On the lower side, the support continues to hold around the 1.2278 level. Simultaneously, the bullish breakout of the 1.2350 resistance level can extend buying until the 1.2435 level. The leading indicators such as RSI and MACD support selling, but the EUR/USD 50 periods EMA is likely to support at 1.2289. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.36075 after placing a high of 1.36711 and a low of 1.35380. The currency pair came under pressure on Wednesday amid the rising number of coronavirus cases in the UK, depressing comments from Andrew Bailey, and the poor macroeconomic data from Great Britain.

The UK has more new coronavirus cases per capita than any other major country globally as the number of daily cases topped 60,000 for the first time this week. The latest data suggested that around one in 50 people in the UK currently have the virus. Only the US has a per capita infection rate nearly equivalent to the UK of any country with more than 1 million cases.

Since December 06, the average number of new daily cases has risen from around 15,000 to above 55,000. PM Boris Johnson said on Tuesday that about 1.3 M people have so far received a coronavirus vaccination. The rising number of coronavirus made the UK the worst-hit country in Europe in terms of cumulative cases and weighed on its local currency British Pound, which ultimately added weight to the GBP/USD pair.

Meanwhile, on Wednesday, the Governor of Bank of England Andrew Bailey risked reigniting the politically charged debate over Brexit by predicting that the trade deal struck with the European Union could end up costing the UK economy the equivalent of more than 80 billion pounds.
During his first public comments since Britain completed its withdrawal from the bloc on December 31, Bailey endorsed warnings from the Office for Budget Responsibility, the fiscal watchdog, that gross domestic product will be as much as 4% lower in the long term than it would be had the country remained in the EU.

These comments from the Bank of England governor right after the Brexit completion raised fears and added weight on Sterling that eventually dragged the GBP/USD currency pair on the downside. On the data front, at 14:30 GMT, the Final Services PMI from Great Britain for December dropped to 49.4 against the expected 499 and weighed on British Pound and added more losses on the currency pair GBP/USD.

From the US side, at 18:15 GMT, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change for December fell to -123K against the anticipated 60K and weighed on the US dollar and capped further losses in GBP/USD pair. At 19:45 GMT, the Final Services PMI for December also fell to 54.8 against the anticipated 55.2 and weighed on the US dollar. At 20:00 GMT, the Factory Orders for November surged to 1.0% against the anticipated 0.7% and supported the US dollar that added further GBP/USD pair losses.

However, the GBP/USD pair’s losses were somewhat recovered in the late trading session over the positive sentiment that was mostly driven by the rising expectation that the Democrats will win both seats in Georgia’s Senate runoff. A clean sweep for the Democrats would hand charge of both houses of Congress to the incoming administration that would pave the way for Joe Biden to push through more stimulus. This left the US dollar under pressure and supported the GBP/USD pair in late trading hours.


Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3572      1.3660

1.3518     1.3696 

1.3483      1.3749

Pivot Point: 1.3607

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD pair continues to consolidate in a narrow trading range of 1.3625 – 1.3556. The Sterling may face immediate resistance at the 1.3625 level, and the continuation of an upward trend can lead the Cable towards the 1.3700 resistance level. On the lower side, the breakout of 1.3545 support can extend the selling trend until the 1.3468 level.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 103.049 after placing a high of 103.442 and a low of 102.590. The higher US yields and the market’s risk appetite boosted the USD/JPY prices on Wednesday. Since March, the currency pair bounced from the lowest levels, near 102.50, and peaked at 103.43, a one-week high.

The main driver of the pair USD/JPY remained the US yields followed by the elections to decide the US Senate’s composition. The 10-year yield reached 1.05%, its highest since March, and supported the US dollar that ultimately pushed the USD/JPY pair higher on board. The market sentiment was not affected by the weaker than expected US economic data as the Dow Jones was at record highs, up by 1.55%, and the NASDAQ gained 0.51%.

Markets were pricing the prospects of a Democratic win in the US Senate runoff elections in Georgia. The Democrats already have the House of Representatives, aka lower chamber of Congress, in their control. Winning the Senate elections will also give them control over the upper chamber that means they will have a complete majority in the US legislative assembly and the power to push forward their agenda.

The term of Joe Biden will begin on January 20. He has hinted that he wanted at least two stimulus packages in 2021 to overcome the damage caused and expected to continue from the coronavirus pandemic. Markets were also pricing their bets on the prospects of Biden’s first order that is expected to push out $2000 checks to most Americans that had been strictly opposed by the Republicans.

On the data front, at 10:00 GMT, the Consumer Confidence from Japan for December dropped to 31.8against the anticipated 32.6 and weighed on the Japanese Yen that added more gains in the USD/JPY pair.
From the US side, at 18:15 GMT, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change for December decreased to -123K against the projected 60K and weighed on the US dollar that capped further gains in the USD/JPY pair. At 19:45 GMT, the Final Services PMI for December also decreased to 54.8 against the projected 55.2 and weighed on the US dollar that limited additional USD/JPY pair gains. At 20:00 GMT, the Factory Orders for November increased to 1.0% against the projected 0.7% and supported the US dollar that added further gains in the USD/JPY pair.

Furthermore, some of the USD/JPY pair’s gains were lost in late trading hours of Wednesday as the rising number of coronavirus cases kept the global economic recovery under pressure and safe-haven demand intact. On Wednesday, Japan’s number of coronavirus cases reached its highest level as the government faced mounting pressure from health experts to impose a strict state of emergency for Tokyo.

In Portugal, about 10,027 new cases on Wednesday were reported, which was the highest since the pandemic started. Ontario reported 3266 new coronavirus cases that brought the total number of coronavirus in the region to 200,626. All these fears kept the safe-haven Japanese yen supportive that ultimately weighed on the USD/JPY pair and lost most of its gains for the day on Wednesday.


Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

102.49      103.08

102.24      103.44

101.89      103.68

Pivot Point: 102.84

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY bounced off to violate the resistance level of 102.960 level, and now it’s working as a support for the USD/JPY pair. The pair may find resistance at the 103.430 level. Overall, the bullish bias seems strong as the USD/JPY pair has crossed over 50 EMA at the 103.063 level. Taking a look at the 2-hour timeframe, the USD/JPY has closed a bullish engulfing candle over 102.962 level that can drive the further bullish trend in the USD/JPY pair. Let’s consider taking a buy trade over the 102.960 level today. Good luck!

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Forex Market Analysis

GBPJPY Under the Bearish Pressure

The GBPJPY cross continues moving in an incomplete long-term sideways corrective pattern of Intermediate degree that remains active since the price found support at 124.786 in early October 2016. The Elliott wave sequence in progress suggests the possibility of a new decline for the coming trading sessions.

The GBPJPY cross continues moving in an incomplete long-term sideways corrective pattern of Intermediate degree that remains active since the price found support at 124.786 in early October 2016. The Elliott wave sequence in progress suggests the possibility of a new decline for the coming trading sessions.

The GBPJPY cross continues moving in an incomplete long-term sideways corrective pattern of Intermediate degree that remains active since the price found support at 124.786 in early October 2016. The Elliott wave sequence in progress suggests the possibility of a new decline for the coming trading sessions.

Technical Overview

The following figure illustrates the GBPJPY cross in its 2-day range, developing a sideways formation of Intermediate degree labeled in blue, which could correspond to an incomplete, irregular flat pattern (3-3-5). This Elliott wave formation began in early October 2016 when the price found support at 124.786 and rallied until 156.608 reached in early February 2018 when the price completed its wave (A) identified in blue.

The previous chart exposes the downward advance of wave (B) in blue, which began once the cross topped at 156.608. In this context, wave (B) internal structure seems like a double-three pattern of Minor degree labeled in green, which currently advances in its wave Y.

Likewise, the lower degree sequence shows the progress in its incomplete wave ((c)) of Minute degree identified in black, which began in early September 2020 when the price found fresh sellers at 142.714.

According to the textbook, the wave ((c)) in progress should follow an internal sequence subdivided into five waves. In this context, the lower degree structure of GBPJPY might move in its second wave (ii) of Minuette degree labeled in blue. Thus, completing this corrective rally should give way to a new decline corresponding to wave (iii).

Technical Outlook

The next 12-hour chart shows the GBPJPY advancing in the wave c of Subminuette degree labeled in green inside the corrective rally corresponding to wave (ii) in blue. The completion of this corrective formation could correspond to an incomplete ending diagonal pattern suggesting a new decline.

The new decline’s potential bearish target corresponding to wave (iii) in blue locates in the demand zone between 130.808 and 129.298. On the other hand, the downward scenario’s invalidation finds at the top of the wave (i) at 142.714, corresponding to the last September 01st high.

In summary, the GBPJPY cross advances in an incomplete sideways corrective formation, which its internal structure suggests the progress in a complex double-three pattern. The lower degree structure exposes the advance of wave (ii), which seems incomplete. In this regard, the ascending base-line breakdown should confirm the potential next decline, which has a potential target the demand zone located between 130.808 and 129.298. Finally, the bearish scenario forecasted will be invalid if the price surpasses and closes above 142.714.

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Forex Signals

AUD/USD Plunges to Complete Retracement – Quick Trade Plan! 

The AUD/USD pair was closed at 0.77604 after placing a high of 0.7773 and a low of 0.76607. Despite the positive macroeconomic data from the US and the rising demand for safe-haven, the currency pair AUD/USD rose higher onboard amid the US dollar’s weakness. The greenback weakened after the beginning of the American session, and the US Dollar Index fell to its two-year lowest level at 89.44 on Tuesday ahead of the Georgia runoff election’s result. The Senate election will decide who will control the upper chamber of the US Congress. The incoming Democratic President, Joe Biden, will need the two seats to control the US Senate. The Republican Party has been controlling the US Senate since 2014, and if the Democratic Party wins this election, it would be beneficial for them.

The AUD/USD pair was closed at 0.77604 after placing a high of 0.7773 and a low of 0.76607. Despite the positive macroeconomic data from the US and the rising demand for safe-haven, the currency pair AUD/USD rose higher onboard amid the US dollar’s weakness. The greenback weakened after the beginning of the American session, and the US Dollar Index fell to its two-year lowest level at 89.44 on Tuesday ahead of the Georgia runoff election’s result. The Senate election will decide who will control the upper chamber of the US Congress. The incoming Democratic President, Joe Biden, will need the two seats to control the US Senate. The Republican Party has been controlling the US Senate since 2014, and if the Democratic Party wins this election, it would be beneficial for them.

The AUD/USD pair was closed at 0.77604 after placing a high of 0.7773 and a low of 0.76607. Despite the positive macroeconomic data from the US and the rising demand for safe-haven, the currency pair AUD/USD rose higher onboard amid the US dollar’s weakness. The greenback weakened after the beginning of the American session, and the US Dollar Index fell to its two-year lowest level at 89.44 on Tuesday ahead of the Georgia runoff election’s result. The Senate election will decide who will control the upper chamber of the US Congress. The incoming Democratic President, Joe Biden, will need the two seats to control the US Senate. The Republican Party has been controlling the US Senate since 2014, and if the Democratic Party wins this election, it would be beneficial for them.

On the data front, at 05:30 GMT, the ANZ Job Advertisements for December dropped to 9.2% against November’s 13.5% and weighed on the Australian Dollar that ultimately capped further gains in AUD/USD pair on Tuesday. From the US side, at 20:00 GMT, the ISM Manufacturing PMI from December rose to 60.7 against the anticipated 56.6 and supported the US dollar, and capped further gains in AUD/USD pair. The ISM Manufacturing Prices also surged to 77.6 against the predicted 66.0 and supported the US dollar that limited further AUD/USD pair gains. The Wards Total Vehicle Sales raised to 16.3M against the estimated 15.8M and supported the US dollar, ultimately limiting further gains in AUD/USD pair.

Meanwhile, the market’s risk appetite was declined as the number of coronavirus cases was increasing day by day throughout the globe. Since the pandemic started has reached 21M, the US count of total coronavirus cases is equal to the count of the next three countries, India, Russia, and Brazil. The UK also reported more than 60,000 cases in a single day on Tuesday that was the highest since the pandemic started, and imposed new tougher restrictions throughout the country. Moreover, Germany also extended its lockdown till the end of the month to control the rising number of coronavirus cases. All these developments added in the safe-haven appeal and weighed on the risk-sensitive Australian Dollar that failed to reverse the AUD/USD pair’s bullish movement on Tuesday.


Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

0.7688 0.7806

0.7615 0.7851

0.7570 0.7924

Pivot Point: 0.7733

The AUD/USD faced resistance at 0.7811 level and has dropped now to trade at 0.7776 level. On the lower side, the pair may find support at the 0.7738 level today. The MACD and RSI support bullish bias, while the 50 periods EMA is likely to extend support at the 0.7685 level. On the higher side, bullish breakout of 0.7811 level can trigger buying trade until 0.7864 level today. I will be looking to take a buy trade over the 0.7738 level today. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

USD/CAD Descending Triangle in Play – Quick Trade Idea! 

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.26689 after placing a high of 1.27909 and a low of 1.26556. The currency pair USD/CAD fell to its lowest since 2018 April on rising crude oil prices and the US dollar weakness. Despite Canada’s negative economic data and positive data from the US side, the currency pair USD/CAD still moved in the downward direction on Tuesday as investors’ focus was shifted on the OPEC meeting and Georgia’s runoff elections.

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.26689 after placing a high of 1.27909 and a low of 1.26556. The currency pair USD/CAD fell to its lowest since 2018 April on rising crude oil prices and the US dollar weakness. Despite Canada’s negative economic data and positive data from the US side, the currency pair USD/CAD still moved in the downward direction on Tuesday as investors’ focus was shifted on the OPEC meeting and Georgia’s runoff elections.

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.26689 after placing a high of 1.27909 and a low of 1.26556. The currency pair USD/CAD fell to its lowest since 2018 April on rising crude oil prices and the US dollar weakness. Despite Canada’s negative economic data and positive data from the US side, the currency pair USD/CAD still moved in the downward direction on Tuesday as investors’ focus was shifted on the OPEC meeting and Georgia’s runoff elections.

On the data front, at 18:30 GMT, the IPPI for November from Canada dropped to -0.6% against the expected -0.2% and weighed on the Canadian dollar that capped further losses in the USD/CAD pair. The RMPI for November also dropped to 0.6% against the expected 0.9% and weighed on the Canadian dollar that capped further losses in the USD/CAD pair on Tuesday. From the US side, at 20:00 GMT, the ISM Manufacturing PMI from December surged to 60.7 against the predicted 56.6 and supported the US dollar, and capped further losses in the USD/CAD pair. The ISM Manufacturing Prices also rose to 77.6 against the expected 66.0 and supported the US dollar that limited further losses in the USD/CAD pair. The Wards Total Vehicle Sales rose to 16.3M against the anticipated 15.8M and supported the US dollar that ultimately limited further losses in the USD/CAD pair.

The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices rose above $50 per barrel on Tuesday as Russia and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries remained deadlocked over how much oil to produce from February. Russia and its neighbor Kazakhstan were both pressuring for the scheduled output increase of 500,000 barrels a day to come into effect, while OPEC, with what appears to be total unanimity, wanted to kept output at its present level due to short-term weakness in demand caused by the latest surge in coronavirus and imposed lockdowns in various countries.

The rising prices of crude oil gave strength to the commodity-linked currency Loonie and added weight on the currency pair USD/CAD. Meanwhile, Georgia’s runoff elections that will decide the US Senate’s future also kept the US dollar under pressure on Tuesday. The result of the elections is expected to announce on Wednesday, and investors were cautious ahead of it, and the selling pressure surrounding the greenback increased that ultimately weighed on the USD/CAD pair.


Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.2619 1.2758

1.2568 1.2844

1.2481 1.2896

Pivot Point: 1.2706

The USD/CAD’s technical side is trading at 1.2690, disrupting the support area of 1.2725 level, which is now working as a resistance for the USD/CAD pair. On the lower side, the support stays at the 1.2647 level, and a bearish breakout of this level can extend selling trend until 1.2591. Let’s wait for opening a sell trade below the 1.2725 level today. Good luck! 

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 06 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Ahead! 

On the news front, eyes will remain on the Services PMI figures from the Eurozone, U.K., and the United States. Almost all economic figures are expected to perform better than previous months, perhaps due to a lockdown lift. Price action will depend upon any surprise changes in the PMI figures. Later today, the U.S. ADP figures will also drive some volatility in the market.

On the news front, eyes will remain on the Services PMI figures from the Eurozone, U.K., and the United States. Almost all economic figures are expected to perform better than previous months, perhaps due to a lockdown lift. Price action will depend upon any surprise changes in the PMI figures. Later today, the U.S. ADP figures will also drive some volatility in the market.

On the news front, eyes will remain on the Services PMI figures from the Eurozone, U.K., and the United States. Almost all economic figures are expected to perform better than previous months, perhaps due to a lockdown lift. Price action will depend upon any surprise changes in the PMI figures. Later today, the U.S. ADP figures will also drive some volatility in the market.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.22984 after placing a high of 1.23055 and a low of 1.22419. The renewed U.S. dollar weakness and the prospects for a Democratic majority in the Senate after the runoff election in Georgia boosted the market sentiment that supported the upward trend in EUR/USD pair on Tuesday.

The U.S. Dollar Index that gauges the greenback’s value against the basket of six major currencies fell by almost 0.38% on Tuesday to an 89.53 level that ultimately added gains in EUR/USD pair. The U.S. Dollar was also under stress on Tuesday amid the US Georgia runoff elections that would decide the future of the U.S. Senate. The outcome will be crucial for incoming president Joe Biden as the Senate majority helps pass the law and confirm the cabinet appointments. The result is expected on Wednesday. It has made investors cautious about placing any strong bids in favor of the U.S. dollar, resulting in the upward momentum of EUR/USD.

On the data front, at 12:00 GMT, the German Retail Sales for November raised to 1.9% against the expected -2.0% and supported the single currency Euro and added further gains in EUR/USD pair. At 13:00 GMT, the Spanish Unemployment Change in December raised to 36.8K against the expected 30.5K and weighed on the single currency Euro that capped further EUR/USD pair gains. At 13:55 GMT, the German Unemployment Change for December declined to-37K against the expected 10K and supported the single currency Euro that added further EUR/USD pair gains. At 14:00 GMT, the M3 Money Supply for the year from Eurozone raised to 11.0% against the forecasted 10.6% and supported the single currency Euro that added additional EUR/USD pair gains. The Private Loans for the year from Eurozone dropped to 3.1% from the expected 3.3% and weighed on Euro that further capped gains in EUR/USD pair.

From the U.S. side, at 20:00 GMT, the ISM Manufacturing PMI from December rose to 60.7 against the estimated 56.6 and supported the U.S. dollar, and capped further gains in EUR/USD pair. The ISM Manufacturing Prices also raised to 77.6 against the anticipated 66.0 and supported the U.S. dollar. The Wards Total Vehicle Sales raised to 16.3M against the estimated 15.8M and supported the U.S. dollar, ultimately limiting further gains in EUR/USD pair.

On Wednesday, the HIS Markit will release the Services PMI data for Germany and the Euro area. From the U.S., the ADP Employment Change will also be featured in the economic docket that will impact EUR/USD prices. Furthermore, the investors will keep a close eye on the Georgia election results.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.2257      1.2318

1.2220      1.2344

1.2195      1.2380

Pivot point: 1.2282

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is trading with a mixed bias at the 1.2272 level, having violated the upward trendline at the 1.2252 level. At the moment, the pair is likely to face resistance at the 1.2307 level along with a support area of 1.2245 and 1.2215. Bullish bias seems dominant today, so a bullish breakout of 1.2307 can extend buying until the next resistance level of 1.2345.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.36278 after a high of 1.36420 and a low of 1.35540. Despite the third nationwide lockdown in the U.K., the GBP/USD pair raised on Tuesday amid the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness. The U.S. Dollar Index that measures the value of the U.S. dollar against the basket of six major currencies fell by 0.38% towards the two years, the lowest level of 89.53, and weighed on the greenback that ultimately supported the gains in GBP/USD pair.

The U.S. dollar was weak across the board despite the safe-haven appeal in the market mainly because of the Georgia runoff elections in the U.S. The runoff will decide the future of the U.S. Senate. It will be essential for Joe Biden, the upcoming Democratic president of the U.S., as it holds major importance in the U.S. Congress being its upper chamber. Senate holding party could easily approve its bills, which is the main attractiveness for getting majority votes in the Georgia runoff elections. Since 2014, the Senate has been controlled by the Republican Party, and if Democrats win on Wednesday, the extra two seats will give them effective control.

On the other hand, the British Pound was under pressure on Tuesday as the number of new daily confirmed cases of coronavirus in the U.K. has topped 60,000 for the first time since the pandemic started.

According to the government figures on Tuesday, the number of people who tested positive was 60,916. It came in as England and Scotland announced new strict lockdowns with people told to stay at home. The country is entering another nationwide lockdown to control coronavirus’s new variant affected the local currency and GBP/USD pair. However, investors did not give much attention to it and continued moving with the weakness of the U.S. dollar that ultimately pushed the GBP/USD pair higher.

There was no macroeconomic data on the data front to be released from the U.K. From the U.S. side, at 20:00 GMT, the ISM Manufacturing PMI from December surged to 60.7 against the anticipated 56.6 and supported the U.S. dollar and capped further gains in GBP/USD pair. The ISM Manufacturing Prices also rose to 77.6 against the projected 66.0 and supported the U.S. dollar. The Wards Total Vehicle Sales surged to 16.3M against the expected 15.8M and supported the U.S. dollar that ultimately limited further GBP/USD pair gains.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3572      1.3660

1.3518      1.3696

1.3483      1.3749

Pivot point: 1.3607

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The Cable’s technical side also remains mostly unchanged as the GBP/USD pair consolidates between 1.3632 – 1.3556 after violating the support level of 1.3609 level. On the higher side, the Sterling may find resistance at 1.3632 and 1.3697 level while support at 1.3550 and 1.3473 level. Choppy trading expected. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 102.716 after placing a high of 103.189 and a low of 102.603. On Tuesday, the currency pair USD/JPY came under resumed bearish pressure through the American trading hours and reached its lowest level in nearly ten months at 102.60. The intensified selling pressure surrounding the U.S. dollar in the second half of the day forced the USD/JPY pair on the lower side. The U.S. Dollar Index that measures the value of the greenback against the basket of six major currencies fell to its multi-year lowest level at 89.44 by 0.47% on Tuesday and weighed heavily on the USD/JPY pair.

The U.S. Dollar was also weak across the board ahead of the results of the Georgia runoff elections. The state of Georgia held runoff elections for its two Senate seats. The results will determine who gets to control the U.S. Senate for the next two years and will consequently have a profound impact on the course of U.S. fiscal policy. The U.S. Republican Party has been controlling the U.S. Senate since 2014, and markets are betting that the Republicans will still win at least one of the seats and cement its hold on the upper chamber of the U.S. Congress.

On the data front, at 04:50 GMT, the Monetary Base for the year from Japan raised to 18.3% against the forecasted 18.0% and supported the Japanese Yen that ultimately weighed on the USD/JPY pair. From the U.S. side, at 20:00 GMT, the ISM Manufacturing PMI from December rose to 60.7 against the forecasted 56.6 and supported the U.S. dollar, and capped further losses in the USD/JPY pair. The ISM Manufacturing Prices also raised to 77.6 against the projected 66.0 and supported the U.S. dollar that limited further losses in the USD/JPY pair. The Wards Total Vehicle Sales raised to 16.3M against the estimated 15.8M and supported the U.S. dollar that ultimately limited further losses in the USD/JPY pair.

Meanwhile, the rising demand for safe-haven appeal in the market also supported the safe-haven Japanese Yen that ultimately weighed on the USD/JPY pair. The U.K. entered into a third nationwide lockdown on Monday as the daily count of new coronavirus cases surpassed 60,000 figure for the first time since the pandemic started. The PM Boris Johnson said that it was crucial to control the spread of a new variant of coronavirus that was more contagious.

Meanwhile, Germany also stretched its nationwide lockdown until the end of the month and announced tougher new restrictions to curb rising cases of coronavirus infections. New York on Monday reported its first case of a new variant of the coronavirus that has been reported in more than 30 countries so far. In the past four days, the U.S. has added about 1 million new coronavirus cases that have pushed the total number of cases beyond 21 million. This rising number of cases across the globe added fears for the recovery of the global economy and increased the appeal for safe-haven that ultimately supported the safe-haven Japanese Yen and added weight on the USD/JPY pair on Tuesday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

102.49      103.08

102.24      103.44

101.89      103.68

Pivot point: 102.84

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The technical side of the USD/JPY also remains mostly unchanged as the USD/JPY is trading sharply bearish at 102.74. On the downside, the USD/JPY pair may find support at the 102.595 level along with resistance at 102.930. The USD/JPY pair has formed a downward channel on the two-hourly timeframes, which is likely to keep the pair bearish. The MACD and 50 EMA is suggesting selling bias in the USD/JPY. Let’s consider taking sell trades below the 102.850 level today. Good luck!

Categories
Forex Signals

USD/CAD Bouncing off Over 1.2728 – Do We Have a Buying Trade?

The USD/CAD currency pair failed to stop its Asian session losing streak and remain depressed around the 1.2735 level, mainly due to the U.S. dollar weakness. However, the prevalent downtrend in the greenback is mainly tied to the Federal Reserve’s expectations would keep rates low for a prolonged period. Meanwhile, the optimism over a possible coronavirus vaccine and the probability of an additional U.S. financial aid package also played its major role in weakening the greenback, which adds further burden around the currency pair. 

The USD/CAD currency pair failed to stop its Asian session losing streak and remain depressed around the 1.2735 level, mainly due to the U.S. dollar weakness. However, the prevalent downtrend in the greenback is mainly tied to the Federal Reserve’s expectations would keep rates low for a prolonged period. Meanwhile, the optimism over a possible coronavirus vaccine and the probability of an additional U.S. financial aid package also played its major role in weakening the greenback, which adds further burden around the currency pair. 

The USD/CAD currency pair failed to stop its Asian session losing streak and remain depressed around the 1.2735 level, mainly due to the U.S. dollar weakness. However, the prevalent downtrend in the greenback is mainly tied to the Federal Reserve’s expectations would keep rates low for a prolonged period. Meanwhile, the optimism over a possible coronavirus vaccine and the probability of an additional U.S. financial aid package also played its major role in weakening the greenback, which adds further burden around the currency pair. 

In contrast to this, the prevalent downticks in the crude oil prices tend to weaken the commodity-linked currency the Loonie, which becomes the key factor that helps the currency pair to limit its deeper losses. As of writing, the USD/CAD currency pair is currently trading at 1.2736 and consolidating in the range between 1.2729 – 1.2792.

Despite the intensified Sino-US tussle and coronavirus (COVID-19) woes, the market trading sentiment managed to stop its previous session’s negative performance and started to flash green during the early European session on the day, possibly due to the fresh optimism over a potential vaccine/treatment for the highly infectious coronavirus. As per the latest report, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) showed that almost 95% success ratio of the leading coronavirus vaccines after two doses. Moreover, the market trading sentiment got an additional lift from fresh hopes of the Democratic victory in the Georgian run-off, which sparked possibilities for additional fiscal support. Thereby, the prevalent upbeat market mood undermined the safe-haven assets, including the safe-haven U.S. dollar, and contributed to the currency pair losses.

As in result, the broad-based U.S. dollar failed to halt its overnight losing streak and remained bearish on the day. Meanwhile, the probability of an additional U.S. financial aid package and speculations that the Fed will keep interest rates lower for a longer period also exerted downside pressure on the greenback. The losses in the U.S. dollar kept the currency pair lower. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a bucket of other currencies dropped by 0.04% to 89.812 by 8:49 PM ET (1:49 AM GMT).

On the contrary, the crude oil failed to stop its early-day losing streak and remained depressed around below the $47.50 level on the day mainly due to the renewed concerns over the global economic recovery as the number of COVID-19 cases continues to increase in Europe, the U.S., and Japan. Across the pond, the reason for the losses in the crude oil prices could also be associated with Monday’s released downbeat China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI data, which showed that the activity slowed in December. Hence, the decline in oil prices undermined demand for the commodity-linked currency the Loonie and became the key factor that helped the currency pair limit its deeper losses. 

Looking forward, the market traders will keep their eyes on the German Unemployment Rate, which is due at 08:55 GMT, and the US ISM Manufacturing, which is due for release at 15:00 GMT. The updates about the U.S. stimulus package and the virus will not lose their importance across the ocean. 



Daily Support and Resistance

S1 1.2691

S2 1.2706

S3 1.2713

Pivot Point 1.2722

R1 1.2729

R2 1.2738

R3 1.2754

The USD/CAD pair is trading with a bullish bias at the 1.2764 level, holding above a support level of 1.2728, and it may head higher until the next target level of 1.2798 level. On the hourly timeframe, the USD/CAD is holding over 50 EMA, which is supporting bullish bias in the Loonie, whereas the MACD is staying in a selling mode. Let’s consider taking sell trade below the 1.2793 level and buying over 1.2728. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

AUD/USD Heading North to Test Triple Top – Brace for Selling! 

During Tuesday’s European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair succeeded to extend its previous session winning streak and caught some further bids around above 0.7700 level mainly due to the fresh upticks in S&P 500 futures, which tend to underpin the perceived risk currency Australian dollar and contributes to the currency pair gains. Hence, the market trading sentiment got support from the fresh hopes of the coronavirus vaccine and the U.S. covid stimulus.

During Tuesday’s European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair succeeded to extend its previous session winning streak and caught some further bids around above 0.7700 level mainly due to the fresh upticks in S&P 500 futures, which tend to underpin the perceived risk currency Australian dollar and contributes to the currency pair gains. Hence, the market trading sentiment got support from the fresh hopes of the coronavirus vaccine and the U.S. covid stimulus.

During Tuesday’s European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair succeeded to extend its previous session winning streak and caught some further bids around above 0.7700 level mainly due to the fresh upticks in S&P 500 futures, which tend to underpin the perceived risk currency Australian dollar and contributes to the currency pair gains. Hence, the market trading sentiment got support from the fresh hopes of the coronavirus vaccine and the U.S. covid stimulus.

Across the pond, the broad-based U.S. dollar selling bias, triggered by multiple factors, also played its significant role in supporting the currency pair. In contrast to this, the long-lasting coronavirus woes globally keep questioning the market’s upbeat mood, which becomes the key factor that kept the lid on any additional gains in the currency pair. The AUD/USD currency pair is currently trading at 0.7716 and consolidating in the range between 0.7661 – 0.7725.

Despite the prevalent burden of the coronavirus (COVID-19) resurgence, the market trading sentiment stopped its previous session bearish moves and started to flash green amid fresh optimism over a potential vaccine/treatment for the highly infectious coronavirus. As per the latest report, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) showed that almost 95% success ratio of the leading coronavirus vaccines after two doses. Moreover, the global markets put high hopes of the Democratic victory in the Georgian run-off, which sparked additional fiscal support possibilities. Thereby, the prevalent upbeat market mood underpinned the Australian dollar’s perceived risk currency and contributed to the currency pair gains.

On the bearish side, the intensifying worries about the continuous surge in new COVID-19 cases kept challenging the upbeat market sentiment and became one of the key factors that kept the lid on any additional currency pair gains. As per the latest report, Japan saw a record number of COVID-19 cases in recent days, which in turn, Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga said that he would consider declaring a fresh state of emergency in the Tokyo area. Across the ocean, the U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson also gave warnings over the possibility of tougher lockdown restrictions in the U.K.

Looking forward, the market traders will keep their eyes on the German Unemployment Rate, which is due at 08:55 GMT, and the US ISM Manufacturing, which is scheduled for release at 15:00 GMT. Meanwhile, the updates about the U.S. stimulus package will be key to watch. Furthermore, the risk catalyst like geopolitics and the virus woes, not to forget the Brexit, will not lose their importance. 


Daily Support and Resistance

S1 0.7656

S2 0.7679

S3 0.7692

Pivot Point 0.7703

R1 0.7716

R2 0.7726

R3 0.775

The AUD/USD pair is trading at the 0.7719 level, heading further higher, and it may find resistance at the 0.7740 level. The 50 periods EMA supports the pair at the 0.7695 level as the MACD also suggests a strong buying trend. On the lower side, the pair may find support at the 0.7684 level today. Let’s consider taking a buying above 0.7685 and selling below 0.7740 level today. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

EUR/JPY Crosses Below 50 Periods EMA – Sell Signal in Play!

The EUR/JPY is trading sideways at 126.564 – 126.105, having crossed below 50 periods EMA. On the higher side, the EUR/JPY may find resistance at the 126.450 level. The EUR/JPY is trading bearish amid a surge in safe-haven appeal. The reason for the bearish trend in the EUR/JPY as prices for crude oil fell, and gold surged.

One of the reasons behind increased safe-haven appeal can be linked with the dip in crude oil prices. Crude oil prices could also be associated with the previous day released downbeat China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI data, which confirmed that the activity slowed in December. The gauge dropped to 53.00 in December from November’s 54.9, against the expected figures of 54.9. The government PMI also fell to 51.9 in December from 52.1 in November.

Despite the risk-off market sentiment, the broad-based U.S. dollar failed to gain any positive traction and edged lower on the day amid the probability of an additional U.S. financial aid package and speculations that the Fed will keep interest rates lower for a longer period. Apart from this, the optimism over a possible coronavirus vaccine urges investors towards riskier currencies and higher-yielding assets rather than the safe-haven asset, which eventually leads to further losses in the safe-haven U.S. dollar. However, the losses in the U.S. dollar kept the USD/JPY currency pair lower. As of now, the U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a bucket of other currencies dropped by 0.04% to 89.812 by 8:49 PM ET (1:49 AM GMT).

On the contrary, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) showed an approximately 95% success ratio of the leading coronavirus vaccines after two doses, which becomes the key factor that helps the currency pair limit its deeper losses.

The EUR/JPY is likely to find resistance at the 126.420 level; thus, we have opened a sell trade. Check out the trade setup below.



Entry Price – Sell 126.22

Stop Loss – 126.62

Take Profit – 125.82

Risk to Reward – 1:1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

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Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 05 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – ISM Manufacturing PMI In Focus!

On the news side, eyes will remain on European Unemployment Change and the ISM Manufacturing PMI manufacturing data from the U.S., Both of the figures, are expected to drive moves in Euro and dollar today.

Economic Events to Watch Today  


  

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

Today in the early European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair successfully extended its previous session winning streak and remained well bid around above the 1.2250 level as the U.S. dollar remains on the bearish track despite coronavirus concerns and weak China data. However, the losses in the U.S. dollar were triggered after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration said that 2-different mRNA vaccines now show the extraordinary result of about 95% in preventing Covid-19 infection in adults. 

Apart from this, the Federal Reserve’s expectations would keep rates low for a prolonged period also weighs on the greenback and contributes to the currency pair gains. Meanwhile, the probability of an additional U.S. financial aid package also played its major role in undermining the U.S. dollar. In that way, the U.S. dollar weakness was seen as one of the key factors that benefitted the EUR/USD currency pair.

 In contrast to this, the latest B117 strain of COVID-19 lead to the fresh lockdown restrictions on economic activity in Europe and the U.K., which keep raising doubts over the economic recovery and turned out to be one of the key factors that kept the lid on any additional gains in the currency pair. As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.2262 and consolidating in the range between 1.2246 – 1.2278.

The sentiment around the global equity market has been flashing red since the day started amid worries about the continuous surge in new COVID-19 cases. Also fueling the risk-off mood was the cautious sentiment ahead of the Georgia election and the Sino-American tussle. As per the latest report, Japan saw a record number of COVID-19 cases in recent days, which in turn, Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga said that he would consider declaring a fresh state of emergency in the Tokyo area. 

Across the ocean, the U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson also gave warnings over the possibility of tougher lockdown restrictions in the U.K., which instantly overshadowed the optimism over vaccines’ rollout for the highly contagious disease and contributed to the equity market losses. However, the intensifying concerns about rising COVID-19 cases and the intensifying lockdowns could cap further gains in the currency pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.2179     1.2279

1.2144     1.2344

1.2078     1.2379

Pivot Point: 1.2244

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is trading with a mixed bias at the 1.2272 level, having violated the upward trendline at the 1.2252 level. At the moment, the pair is likely to face resistance at the 1.2307 level along with a support area of 1.2245 and 1.2215. Bullish bias seems dominant today as the 50 periods EMA supports the pair at 1.2245 level. However, the MACD stays in a sell mode, as histograms are being formed below 0, supporting selling bias. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

During Tuesday’s European trading hours, the GBP/USD currency pair failed to extend its previous session winning streak and took some offer well below the 1.360 level mainly due to the continuous surge in new COVID-19 cases in the U.K., which raised doubts over the U.K. economic recovery and turned out to be one of the key factors that kept the currency pair down. On the contrary, the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, triggered by multiple factors, failed to support the GBP/USD pair or ease the bearish pressure. At this particular time, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3556 and consolidating in the range between 1.3556 – 1.3612.

Despite the risk-off market sentiment, the broad-based U.S. dollar failed to gain any positive traction and dropped near multi-year lows amid the probability of an additional U.S. financial aid package and speculations Fed will keep interest rates lower for a longer period. Apart from this, the optimism over a possible coronavirus vaccine pushes investors towards riskier currencies and higher-yielding assets rather than the safe-haven asset, which eventually leads to further losses in the safe-haven U.S. dollar. 

However, the U.S. dollar losses were seen as one of the key factors that benefitted the EUR/USD currency pair. As of now, the U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a bucket of other currencies dropped by 0.04% to 89.812 by 8:49 PM ET (1:49 AM GMT).

Apart from Brexit and U.S. headlines, the currency pair came under pressure as the market’s risk sentiment was affected by the increase in the number of coronavirus cases worldwide. 

The rising number of infections from COVID-19 raised fears that countries might extend the restrictions that would have a negative impact on global economic recovery. These fears kept the risk perceived GBP/USD pair under pressure and kept its gains limited during the Asian session on Monday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3623      1.3705

1.3573      1.3737

1.3540      1.3788

Pivot Point: 1.3655

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD pair has also violated the support level of 1.3609 level extended by an upward channel, which has now been violated. On the higher side, the Sterling may find resistance at 1.3609 and 1.3698 level while support at 1.3533 level today. The Cable is crossing below 50 periods EMA, and the MACD is also forming histograms below 0, suggesting strong selling bias. We should consider taking a selling trade the Cable below 1.3607 level today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY continues trading with a bearish bias at the 102.930 level, as it looks clear direction while taking rounds to 103.10/15 through the opening hour of Asian trading sessions. The yen pair descended to the new low in 10 months the prior day before closing with the Doji candlestick’s near opening levels on the daily chart. The risk-aversion stream, supported by concerns of the coronavirus (COVID-19) tension and the unadventurous spirits ahead of the Georgian elections, battles the greenback recovery and holds the USD/JPY in a compact range off-late.

The U.S. Dollar Index that includes the worth of the greenback against the basket of six major currencies was dropping by 0.25% to 89.67 on the day to insignificantly beneath the level it closed 2020 at 89.766. The U.S. dollar instability appended to the downward momentum of the USD/JPY pair. The Federal Reserve is scheduled to publish the minutes from its December conference on Wednesday. Investors will be watching for more detail on the talks about securing their forward policy guidance more specific and the chance of additional development in asset buying in 2021. 

The USD/JPY pair was also down in initial trading hours on Monday as the rising number of coronavirus cases throughout the world raised the safe-haven appeal in the market. Prime Minister Boris Johnson urged that strict lockdown stipulations would be placed in England to fight against the new variant of coronavirus that has pushed the infection rates to their highest record levels. School unions have raised called for the closure of all schools for a couple of weeks as the virus was spreading faster, but Johnson said to parents that they should send children to school as the threats to young kids from the deadly virus were very small.

 From the U.S. side, at 19:45 GMT, the Final Manufacturing PMI from the U.S. for December is projected to come as 56.3 against the previous 56.5 and weigh on the U.S. dollar add in the losses of USD/JPY pair. At 20:00 GMT, the Construction Spending for November is estimated to decrease to 1.1% against the previous 1.3% that could weigh on the U.S. dollar and USD/JPY pair as well.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

103.02     103.34

102.85     103.49

102.70     103.66

Pivot Point: 103.17

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading sharply bearish at 102.940, gaining support at the 102.940 level. The USD/JPY pair has formed a downward channel on the two-hourly timeframes, which may extend resistance at 103.300 as at the same level 50 periods EMA is also extending resistance. Today, we need to keep an eye on the 102.940 mark as a violation of this may offer us a sell trade until the 102.598 level. The MACD and RSI are suggesting selling bias in USD/JPY today. Good luck!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

GBPUSD Advances in an Irregular Correction. What’s Ahead?

The GBPUSD pair advances in an incomplete Elliott Wave Irregular Flat pattern that began on September 01st when the Pound found resistance at 1.34832. Currently, the price action moves in its wave (b) of Minuette degree identified in blue, suggesting a potential decline in the coming trading sessions.

The GBPUSD pair advances in an incomplete Elliott Wave Irregular Flat pattern that began on September 01st when the Pound found resistance at 1.34832. Currently, the price action moves in its wave (b) of Minuette degree identified in blue, suggesting a potential decline in the coming trading sessions.

The GBPUSD pair advances in an incomplete Elliott Wave Irregular Flat pattern that began on September 01st when the Pound found resistance at 1.34832. Currently, the price action moves in its wave (b) of Minuette degree identified in blue, suggesting a potential decline in the coming trading sessions.

Technical Overview

The big picture of the GBPUSD illustrated in the following daily chart shows the advance in an incomplete upward corrective sequence of Minute degree labeled in black, which began on last March 20th when the Pound found support and fresh buyers at 1.14098 developing a corrective rally. Once completed the three-wave upward sequence on September 01st at 1.34832, the price completed its wave ((a)) in black and began to advance in a sideways corrective formation corresponding to wave ((b)), which remains in progress.

The previous chart shows the incomplete wave ((b)), which at the same time, rallies in a corrective sequence corresponding to wave (b) of Minuette degree identified in blue. This corrective formation in progress could correspond to an irregular flat pattern (3-3-5).

On the other hand, both the trend and momentum indicator confirms the upward bias of wave (b). The stochastic oscillator that acts as a timing indicator carries to suspect the wave (b) could advance in a complex correction. In this regard, the next 8-hour chart illustrates the internal structure of the wave (b).

The second chart exposes the Pound advancing in a triple-three pattern of Subminuette degree labeled in green. According to the textbook, this complex formation identified as w-x-y-x-z follows an internal structural series subdivided into (3-3-3-3-3). In this context, the complex correction in progress looks advancing in its third segment of wave z, which seems like an ending diagonal pattern.

In consequence, the GBPUSD should end this complex corrective rally in the coming trading sessions giving way to a new decline corresponding to wave (c) of Minuette degree.

Technical Outlook

The short-term structure developed by GBPUSD corresponds to an ending diagonal pattern, which suggests the finalization of the current corrective rally before starting a new decline.

The next chart exposes the Pound in its 8-hour time frame, which could make a new upward move, surpassing the ending diagonal pattern’s upper-line with a potential target in the area between 1.3700 and 1.3800.

Once the ending diagonal pattern finalizes, a breakdown below the Invalidation Level at 1.3439 would confirm the start of wave (c) in blue. According to the Elliott Wave Theory, this bearish leg should follow an internal sequence subdivided into a five-wave sequence.

On the other hand, considering that the upper degree’s current corrective pattern might correspond to an irregular flat, the price might develop two potential scenarios identified as follows.

  • Scenario 1: If wave (c) finds support above the end of wave (a), the Pound could drop to the demand zone between 1.2916 and 1.2853. This scenario suggests the strong long-term bullish pressure and the Elliott Wave formation should correspond to an irregular flat pattern with the failure in wave (c).
  • Scenario 2: If the price drops violating the end of wave (a) at 1.26753, the GBPUSD could decline to the next demand zone between 1.2553 and 1.2506. This scenario suggests the strength of bearish pressure, and the irregular flat pattern is extended in wave (c).

The price advance in a complex correction is identified as a triple-three formation, which seems moving in its last internal segment, which looks like an incomplete ending diagonal pattern. In this context, the breakdown and close below the 1.3439 would confirm the end of wave (b) and the start of wave (c) of Minuette degree identified in blue.

Considering that the upper degree corrective structure could correspond to an irregular flat pattern, wave (c) offers two potential scenarios. The first scenario could see a potential target between 1.2916 and 1.2853. In the second one, the price could decline between 1.2553 and 1.2506.

Categories
Forex Signals

Upward Channel Supporting Buying in Aussie – Get Ready for a Breakout Trade! 

The AUD/USD continues trading bullish at the 0.7740 level, heading further higher, but only if the Aussie gets to violate the 0.7740 resistance level. The dollar seems to get weaker amid a rising number of coronavirus cases despite the vaccine rollout raised fears and supported the appeal for safe-haven, but the dollar is getting weaker. Ultimately weighed on the risk-sensitive Aussie that added in the losses of the AUDUSD pair.

The AUD/USD continues trading bullish at the 0.7740 level, heading further higher, but only if the Aussie gets to violate the 0.7740 resistance level. The dollar seems to get weaker amid a rising number of coronavirus cases despite the vaccine rollout raised fears and supported the appeal for safe-haven, but the dollar is getting weaker. Ultimately weighed on the risk-sensitive Aussie that added in the losses of the AUDUSD pair.

The AUD/USD continues trading bullish at the 0.7740 level, heading further higher, but only if the Aussie gets to violate the 0.7740 resistance level. The dollar seems to get weaker amid a rising number of coronavirus cases despite the vaccine rollout raised fears and supported the appeal for safe-haven, but the dollar is getting weaker. Ultimately weighed on the risk-sensitive Aussie that added in the losses of the AUDUSD pair.

The currency pair AUD/USD posted losses for the day despite the US dollar’s weakness on Monday. The US dollar was weak across the board as the investors were cautious about putting any strong position in the market ahead of Tuesday’s Georgia’s Electoral runoff and Wednesday’s FOMC release of meeting minutes from December. Furthermore, the US caseload of coronavirus infections surpassed the 21,110,917 number and weighed on local currency as the country was worst-hit by the virus. 

Meanwhile, on the data front, at 06:45 GMT, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI from December dropped to 53.0 against the expected 54.7 and weighed on China-proxy Aussie that ultimately added losses in AUD/USD pair. 

At 10:30 GMT, the Commodity prices for the year from Australia came in as11.7% in December against the previous 2.5%. From the US side, at 19:45 GMT, the Final Manufacturing PMI from the US for December is projected to come as 56.3 against the previous 56.5 that could hurt the US dollar and limit further losses in AUD/USD pair. At 20:00 GMT, the Construction Spending for November is anticipated to fell to 1.1% against the previous 1.3% that could also hurt the US dollar and limit further losses in AUD/USD pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

0.7667 0.7732

0.7639 0.7771

0.7601 0.7798

Pivot Point: 07705

The AUD/USD consolidates in a narrow trading range of 0.7685 – 0.7740 level, and a bullish breakout of this range can trigger further upward trend until 0.7802 level, while on the lower side, the support continues to hold at 0.7686 level. A bearish breakout of 0.7686 level is likely to drive selling until the 0.7636 mark. Let’s brace for a breakout. Good luck! 

 

Categories
Forex Signals

Gold Breakout Ascending Triangle Pattern – Bullish Bias Dominates! 

During Monday’s Asian trading session, the precious metal managed to extend its early-day positive performance and remained bullish around above the $1,920 level as the sharp rise in global COVID-19 cases and the possibility of more countries imposing tighter restrictions tend to underpin the safe-haven yellow metal. Meanwhile, the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, triggered by the market upbeat mood, also played its key role in underpinning the gold prices as the price of gold is inversely related to the price of the U.S. dollar. However, the market trading sentiment was being supported by the optimism surrounding the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine, Brexit headlines, and the U.S. covid aid package. 

During Monday’s Asian trading session, the precious metal managed to extend its early-day positive performance and remained bullish around above the $1,920 level as the sharp rise in global COVID-19 cases and the possibility of more countries imposing tighter restrictions tend to underpin the safe-haven yellow metal. Meanwhile, the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, triggered by the market upbeat mood, also played its key role in underpinning the gold prices as the price of gold is inversely related to the price of the U.S. dollar. However, the market trading sentiment was being supported by the optimism surrounding the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine, Brexit headlines, and the U.S. covid aid package. 

During Monday’s Asian trading session, the precious metal managed to extend its early-day positive performance and remained bullish around above the $1,920 level as the sharp rise in global COVID-19 cases and the possibility of more countries imposing tighter restrictions tend to underpin the safe-haven yellow metal. Meanwhile, the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, triggered by the market upbeat mood, also played its key role in underpinning the gold prices as the price of gold is inversely related to the price of the U.S. dollar. However, the market trading sentiment was being supported by the optimism surrounding the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine, Brexit headlines, and the U.S. covid aid package. 

In that way, the upbeat market sentiment was seen as one of the key factors that kept the lid on any additional gold gains. Furthermore, the upticks in the gold prices could also be attributed to the escalating US-China tussles, which eventually lend some support to the safe-haven yellow metal. As of writing, the yellow metal prices are currently trading at 1,923.70 and consolidating in the range between 1,893.81 – 1,925.35.

The market trading sentiment managed to extend its last week’s positive performance and stay positive on the day as the U.S. stocks futures’ bullish appearance tends to highlight the risk-on sentiment. Behind this positive performance was the optimism surrounding the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine, Brexit headlines, and the U.S. covid aid package. Across the ocean, the latest upbeat prints of Asian activity numbers from Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, and Taiwan for December also played its major role in underpinning the market trading sentiment. However, the positive tone around the market sentiment favors the gold buyers via U.S. dollar weakness.

As a result of the risk-on mood, the broad-based U.S. dollar failed to gain any positive traction and remained bearish on the day. Meanwhile, the losses in the U.S. dollar were further bolstered by the easy money policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve and central bankers elsewhere. It is worth mentioning that the U.S. Federal Reserve is set to release the minutes from its December meeting on Wednesday. In that way, the market players will be looking for more detail on making their forward policy guidance more explicit and the chance of a further increase in asset buying in 2021. Hence, the losses in the U.S. dollar becomes the key factor that helps the gold to stay bid as the price of gold is inversely related to the price of the U.S. dollar. 

Elsewhere, the upticks in the gold prices could also be attributed to the concerns over the coronavirus (COVID-19) and tussles between the U.S. and China. The coronavirus (COVID-19) cases continue to rise, with above 85 million COVID-19 cases as of Jan. 4, with over 20.6 million cases of them in the U.S. Apart from the U.S., Japan is also gaining attention amid the recent surge in the cases and the death toll. As per the latest report, Japan recorded more than 3,100 new cases overnight. While Tokyo reported 816 new infections, bringing the cumulative total to 62,590, the largest among the country’s 47 prefectures so far. This, in turn, the government of Japan is seeking expert advice on whether to declare a state of emergency in Tokyo and neighboring prefectures. 

Looking forward, the market traders will keep their eyes on Caixin Manufacturing PMI for December, which is expected to reprint 54.9. Meanwhile, the second readings of monthly PMIs from Europe, the U.K., and the U.S. can decorate the calendar ahead. In addition to this, the updates about the U.S. stimulus package will be key to watch. In the meantime, the risk catalyst like geopolitics and the virus woes, not to forget the Brexit, will not lose their importance. 


Daily Support and Resistance

S1 1863.1

S2 1879.13

S3 1888.81

Pivot Point 1895.17

R1 1904.84

R2 1911.2

R3 1927.24

On Monday, the gold is trading sharply bullish at the 1,925 level. Gold has disrupted the ascending triangle pattern at the 1,898 mark on the daily chart, and now gold is likely to encounter resistance at 1,933 and 1,965 marks. The buying trend can be seen in gold, but unfortunately, our trades are closed at stop loss. I will be looking to take another buying trade once gold retraces back to 1,913 level. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 04 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Manufacturing PMI In Focus! 

On the news front, eyes will remain on the Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI figures from the Eurozone, U.K., and the United States. Almost all economic figures are expected to perform better than previous months, perhaps due to a lift of lockdown. Price action will depend upon any surprise changes in the PMI figures.

On the news front, eyes will remain on the Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI figures from the Eurozone, U.K., and the United States. Almost all economic figures are expected to perform better than previous months, perhaps due to a lift of lockdown. Price action will depend upon any surprise changes in the PMI figures.

On the news front, eyes will remain on the Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI figures from the Eurozone, U.K., and the United States. Almost all economic figures are expected to perform better than previous months, perhaps due to a lift of lockdown. Price action will depend upon any surprise changes in the PMI figures.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

  

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was opened at 1.22387, and it has placed a high of 1.22584 and a low of 1.22276 so far. The currency pair is currently moving at 1.25514 and has shown a consolidative move since the start of the day.

The U.S. dollar was weak across the board on Monday and the starting day of the week and pushed the currency pair EUR/USD higher on board. However, the EUR/USD pair’s gains remained consolidative ahead of the release of macroeconomic data from the European side.

At 13:15 GMT, the Spanish Manufacturing PMI for December is forecasted to come in as 52.6 compared to November’s 49.8, which, if met, will be supportive to the single currency Euro and will probably add gains in EUR/USD pair. At 13:45 GMT, the Italian manufacturing PMI for December is also expected to surpass the previous 51.5 and come in as 53.5 and support the single currency Euro to add further gains in EUR/USD pair. At 13:50 GMT, the French Final Manufacturing PMI is projected to remain flat at 51.1 for December. At 13:55 GMT, The German Final Manufacturing PMI for December is also projected to remain the same as November’s 58.6. At 14:00 GMT, the Final manufacturing PMI for December from the whole Eurozone is also expected to remain flat at 55.5.

From the U.S. side, at 19:45 GMT, the Final Manufacturing PMI from the U.S. for December is anticipated to release as 56.3 against the previous 56.5 and weigh on the U.S. dollar be beneficial for EUR/USD pair. At 20:00 GMT, the Construction Spending for November is estimated to decline to 1.1% compared to the previous 1.3%, and if the actual meet the expectations, then EUR/USD will gain more as the U.S. dollar will become weak.

Apart from macroeconomic data, the gains in EUR/USD pair were very limited at the start of the trading session as the rise in coronavirus cases in Europe urged the countries to get ready to extend lockdowns to control the spread of the virus. Not in Europe, but all countries across the world, including UK, Canada, India, the USA, Japan, and Mexico also have seen a rise in the number of infection cases that has prompted the need for safe-haven and resulted in the consolidative movement of EUR/USD pair on Monday.

The risk perceived EUR/USD pair faced pressure while moving upward as the risk sentiment in the market deteriorated after the rising number of coronavirus cases throughout the globe. However, the currency pair EUR/USD remained on the plus side as the European countries have started immunizing people against coronavirus in earnest, but huge discrepancies in vaccination pace exist.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar was also weak ahead of Tuesday’s Georgia runoff elections that will decide the control of the U.S. Senate and also the fate of President-elect Joe Biden’s legislative agenda. Whereas, Senate ended the demand for an increase in direct payments from $600 to $2000 by Donald Trump and supported by Democrats as Republicans did not approve it and weighed on the U.S. dollar that ultimately kept the EUR/USD pair higher.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.2179      1.2279

1.2144      1.2344

1.2078      1.2379

Pivot Point: 1.2244

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is trading with a bearish bias today at the 1.2248 level, having violated the upward trendline at the 1.2252 level. Closing of candles below this trendline confirms a breakout, and there’s a strong odd of selling trend’s continuation until 1.2203. The next support may be found around the 1.2175 level below this, along with resistance at 1.2258 and 1.2313. The 50 periods EMA is likely to extend resistance at the 1.2262 level, and supporting selling trend in the EUR/USD today! 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

On January 04, the currency pair was opened at 1.36471, and it has placed a high of 1.36982 and a low of 1.36436 so far. The pair is currently moving at 136884 and is rising to place gains for the 4th consecutive session on Monday. The U.K. was enjoying its first trading session as an independent nation on Monday as the transition period for Brexit ended on Thursday when the United Kingdom finally ended its ties with the European Union, almost a year after its formal departure from the 27-nation bloc.

After four and a half years, when the majority in the U.K. voted to leave the European Union, the end of the transition period was a significant moment in the history of the U.K. Great Britain will now forge a separate path after almost five decades as part of the bloc. 

According to PM Boris Johnson, Britain will be an open, generous, outward-looking, internationalist, and free-trading country free to do things differently and, if necessary better than the E.U. On Sunday, the PM Boris Johnson said that he intended to carry on as a prime minister after Brexit.

Although the British Pound will see a selling pressure given the impact of Brexit sooner or later, the investors were favoring the currency in the beginning hours of the trading session ahead of the macroeconomic data or any major news as after a long fight between the E.U. & U.K.; the country has departure from the E.U. with a deal beneficial for both sides successfully.

At 14:30 GMT, the Final Manufacturing PMI for December is expected to remain flat at 57.3. The Mortgage Approvals from Britain in November are expected to decline to 82K from October’s 98K and weigh on British Pound that could drag the pair GBP/USD lower. The Net Lending to Individuals for November is also expected to decline to 3.0B from October’s 3.7B and weigh on British Pound and limit the GBP/USD pair’s upward trend. Furthermore, the pair was also supported in the Asian session due to the weakness of the U.S. dollar on Monday. The U.S. dollar was weak due to the broad market optimism and rallying equities. Some news from the U.S. Congress unveiled that Nancy Pelosi was re-elected as the U.S. House Speaker, which indicated an easy way for further stimulus. 

Meanwhile, Georgia’s electoral runoff will also decide the Senate majority’s fate and will be crucial to watch on Tuesday. All these developments kept the greenback under pressure and supported GBP/USD’s rising prices on Monday during the early session.

Apart from Brexit and U.S. headlines, the currency pair came under pressure as the market’s risk sentiment was affected by the increase in the number of coronavirus cases throughout the globe. 

The rising number of infections from COVID-19 raised fears that countries might extend the restrictions that would have a negative impact on global economic recovery. These fears kept the risk perceived GBP/USD pair under pressure and kept its gains limited during the Asian session on Monday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3623      1.3705

1.3573      1.3737

1.3540      1.3788

Pivot Point: 1.3655

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD pair has also violated the resistance level of 1.3617 level, and on the higher side, the next target remains at the 1.3698 level. On the lower side, the GBP/USD pair may find support at the 1.3617 level for now. We can expect a continuation of an upward trend in the Sterling today. The 50 periods EMA is supporting bullish bias at the 1.3600 level, and at the same time, the upward channel is also likely to keep Sterling bullish on Monday. Let’s consider taking buying trades over 1.3609 and selling below the 1.3698 level today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

On January 04, the USD/JPY opened at 103.096, and it has placed a high of 103.314 and a low of 102.932 since then. The pair USD/JPY was currently moving at 103.023 and was placing losses for the day.

In the Asian trading session, the U.S. dollar was down on Monday, with investors continuing to put pressure on the safe-haven assets on the first trading day of 2021. The rising expectations that the U.S. interest rates will remain low and hopes for an eventual global economic recovery from coronavirus will likely continue to slow the dollar down against other major currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index that measures the value of the U.S. dollar against the basket of six major currencies was down by 0.25% to 89.67 on the day to slightly below the level it ended 2020 at 89.766. The U.S. dollar weakness added to the downward momentum of the USD/JPY pair on Monday.

The Federal Reserve is due to release the minutes from its December meeting on Wednesday. Investors will be looking for more detail on the discussions about making their forward policy guidance more explicit and the chance of a further increase in asset buying in 2021. Meanwhile, the USD/JPY pair was also down in early trading hours on Monday as the rising number of coronavirus cases throughout the world raised the safe-haven appeal in the market. 

On Sunday, Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned that severe lockdown restrictions would be installed in England to fight against the new variant of coronavirus that has pushed the infection rates to their highest record levels. Whereas, School unions have raised called for the closure of all schools for a couple of weeks as the virus was spreading faster, but Johnson said to parents that they should send children to school as the threats to young kids from the deadly virus were very small.

Meanwhile, on Saturday, Canada reported an estimated 4800 more cases of the deadly coronavirus that added to the country’s total caseload and made it 586,425. Canada said that the rise in the number of coronaviruses was seen after the holiday season. In India, 16,660 fresh cases were reported in a single day that sent the total number of infections to 10,341,291. 

Americans have been reported to flee to Mexico to avoid the lockdown restrictions back at home. According to Times, about half a million Americans traveled to Mexico in November, whereas Mexico has reported an increase in the number of coronavirus cases in November and December.

The global sum of coronavirus cases reached 85,489,058, out of which 60,443,211 have recovered, and 1,850,202 have died so far. The U.S. cases reached a total of 21,110,917 number and remained the worst-hit county by the world’s coronavirus. Despite the vaccine rollout, the rising number of coronavirus cases throughout the globe added to the fears that countries will enter new lockdown restrictions and affect global economic recovery. These fears raised the market’s safe-haven appeal and supported the safe-haven Japanese Yen that ultimately weighed on the USD/JPY pair. 

On the data front, at 05:30 GMT, the Final Manufacturing PMI in December came in as 50.0 against the expected 49.7 and supported the Japanese Yen that added in the losses of the USD/JPY pair on Monday. From the U.S. side, at 19:45 GMT, the Final Manufacturing PMI from the U.S. for December is projected to come as 56.3 against the previous 56.5 and weigh on the U.S. dollar add in the losses of USD/JPY pair. At 20:00 GMT, the Construction Spending for November is estimated to decrease to 1.1% against the previous 1.3% that could weigh on the U.S. dollar and USD/JPY pair as well.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

103.02      103.34

102.85      103.49

102.70      103.66

Pivot Point: 103.17

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading sharply bearish at 102.940, gaining support at the 102.940 level. The USD/JPY pair has formed a downward channel on the two-hourly timeframes, which may extend resistance at 103.300 as at the same level 50 periods EMA is also extending resistance. Today, we need to keep an eye on the 102.940 mark as a violation of this may offer us a sell trade until the 102.598 level. The MACD and RSI are suggesting selling bias in USD/JPY today. Good luck!

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Forex Signals

USD/CAD Supported Over Triple Bottom – Brace for a Trade Here! 

The USD/CAD pair was opened at 1.27142, and it has placed a high of 1.27358 and a low of 1.26950 since then. The pair was currently moving at 1.27035 and was posting losses on Monday for the 5th consecutive session. The losses in the USD/CAD pair during the Asian session on Monday could be attributed to the US dollar’s weakness along with the rising crude oil prices on the day. The deteriorated risk-sentiment could also be a factor behind the USD/CAD pair’s declining prices on Monday. 

The USD/CAD pair was opened at 1.27142, and it has placed a high of 1.27358 and a low of 1.26950 since then. The pair was currently moving at 1.27035 and was posting losses on Monday for the 5th consecutive session. The losses in the USD/CAD pair during the Asian session on Monday could be attributed to the US dollar’s weakness along with the rising crude oil prices on the day. The deteriorated risk-sentiment could also be a factor behind the USD/CAD pair’s declining prices on Monday. 

The USD/CAD pair was opened at 1.27142, and it has placed a high of 1.27358 and a low of 1.26950 since then. The pair was currently moving at 1.27035 and was posting losses on Monday for the 5th consecutive session. The losses in the USD/CAD pair during the Asian session on Monday could be attributed to the US dollar’s weakness along with the rising crude oil prices on the day. The deteriorated risk-sentiment could also be a factor behind the USD/CAD pair’s declining prices on Monday. 

The US Dollar was weak across the board on Monday as the US saw a massive increase in the number of coronavirus cases as the total count of infection cases reached 21,110,917 in the country and made it the worst-hit country by the COVID-19. The US Dollar Index was also down on Monday by 0.25% at the 89.67 level.

The US dollar weakness could also be attributed to the latest rejection of an increase in direct payments by the US Senate. Lately, the US President called to increase the direct payments to Americans to $2000 from $600 that was also supported by Democrats; however, these efforts have come to an end after Republicans refused to increase them. Furthermore, the US billions were also hesitant to place strong moves in the market ahead of Tuesday’s Georgia’s electoral runoff and Wednesday’s December meeting minutes release from FOMC.

On the other hand, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil prices on Monday have reached $49.27 per barrel so far and were moving upward continuously. The crude oil has posted gains for four consecutive sessions, and the outlook remained positive, which means it could increase further. The rising crude oil prices added support to the commodity-linked currency Loonie that ultimately added more pressure on the USD/CAD pair’s prices on Monday.

On the data front, Manufacturing PMI from Canada is expected to release at 19:30 GMT, November’s PMI was 55.8, and anything above it in December could be beneficial for the Canadian dollar, and anything less than it could be against the local currency. From the US side, at 19:45 GMT, the Final Manufacturing PMI from the US for December is predicted to come as 56.3 against the previous 56.5 that could hurt the US dollar and add further losses in the USD/CAD pair. At 20:00 GMT, the Construction Spending for November is forecasted to drop to 1.1% against the previous 1.3% that could also add more losses in the USD/CAD pair.


Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.2704 1.2762

1.2679 1.2795

1.2647 1.2820

Pivot point: 1.2737

The USD/CAD is trading at 1.2684, and violation of this level can extend the selling trend until the 1.2637 level. On the 2 hour timeframe, the USD/CAD is supported due to the triple bottom, but the RSI and MACD are suggesting a selling trend in USD/CAD. However, we can’t take a sell trade unless the 1.2685 level is violated. Let’s wait for a breakout elsewhere; we can take a buy trade over 1.2685 tp target 1.2760. Good luck!

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Forex Signals

EUR/USD Completes Retracement – Brace for a Bullish Correction! 

The EUR/USD is trading with a bearish bias today at the 1.2248 level, having violated the upward trendline at the 1.2252 level. Closing of candles below this trendline confirms a breakout, and there’s a strong odd of selling trend’s continuation until 1.2203. The next support may be found around the 1.2175 level below this, along with resistance at 1.2258 and 1.2313. The 50 periods EMA is likely to extend resistance at the 1.2262 level, and supporting the selling trend in the EUR/USD today; however, we are taking a buying trade as the pair is forming Doji, and it may bounce off to continue trading bullish. 

The EUR/USD is trading with a bearish bias today at the 1.2248 level, having violated the upward trendline at the 1.2252 level. Closing of candles below this trendline confirms a breakout, and there’s a strong odd of selling trend’s continuation until 1.2203. The next support may be found around the 1.2175 level below this, along with resistance at 1.2258 and 1.2313. The 50 periods EMA is likely to extend resistance at the 1.2262 level, and supporting the selling trend in the EUR/USD today; however, we are taking a buying trade as the pair is forming Doji, and it may bounce off to continue trading bullish. 

The EUR/USD is trading with a bearish bias today at the 1.2248 level, having violated the upward trendline at the 1.2252 level. Closing of candles below this trendline confirms a breakout, and there’s a strong odd of selling trend’s continuation until 1.2203. The next support may be found around the 1.2175 level below this, along with resistance at 1.2258 and 1.2313. The 50 periods EMA is likely to extend resistance at the 1.2262 level, and supporting the selling trend in the EUR/USD today; however, we are taking a buying trade as the pair is forming Doji, and it may bounce off to continue trading bullish. 


Entry Price – Buy 1.226

Stop Loss – 1.222

Take Profit – 1.23

Risk to Reward – 1:1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

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Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

 

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Forex Signals

USD/CAD Bearish Bias Continues – Traders Brace for Selling Trade! 

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.27513 after placing a high of 1.28269 and a low of 1.27493. The currency pair USD/CAD extended its losses on Wednesday for the 3rd consecutive day amid the US dollar’s weakness and rising crude oil prices. The bearish momentum surrounding the currency pair USD/CAD remained intact due to the unbeatable selling pressure around the greenback and a stronger Canadian dollar on the back of rising crude oil prices amid the improved risk sentiment in the market.

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.27513 after placing a high of 1.28269 and a low of 1.27493. The currency pair USD/CAD extended its losses on Wednesday for the 3rd consecutive day amid the US dollar’s weakness and rising crude oil prices. The bearish momentum surrounding the currency pair USD/CAD remained intact due to the unbeatable selling pressure around the greenback and a stronger Canadian dollar on the back of rising crude oil prices amid the improved risk sentiment in the market.

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.27513 after placing a high of 1.28269 and a low of 1.27493. The currency pair USD/CAD extended its losses on Wednesday for the 3rd consecutive day amid the US dollar’s weakness and rising crude oil prices. The bearish momentum surrounding the currency pair USD/CAD remained intact due to the unbeatable selling pressure around the greenback and a stronger Canadian dollar on the back of rising crude oil prices amid the improved risk sentiment in the market.

The rising optimism surrounding the vaccine rollouts after the UK regulatory approved the emergency use authorization of the vaccine prepared by AstraZeneca and Oxford University helped recover the market’s energy demand. The rising energy demand added to the crude oil prices that lift the per barrel price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $48.63 on Wednesday.

Another reason behind the rising crude oil prices was the weekly report from EIA about the US crude oil stocks. At 20:30 GMT, the Crude Oil Inventories from last week were declined to -6.1M against the forecasted -3.0M and supported the crude oil prices. The surge in WTI prices gave strength to the commodity-linked currency Loonie that ultimately added losses in the USD/CAD pair on Wednesday.

On the data front, from the US side, at 18:30 GMT, the Goods Trade Balance from November dropped to -84.8B against the predicted -81.5B and weighed on the US dollar that added losses in the currency pair USD/CAD. The Prelim Wholesale Inventories from November also dropped to -0.1% against the predicted 0.7% and supported the US dollar. At 19:45 GMT, Chicago PMI in December raised to 59.5 against the predicted 56.6 and supported the US dollar. At 20:00 GMT, the Pending Home Sales from November fell to -2.6% against the predicted 0.1% and weighed on the US dollar that ultimately added further losses in the USD/CAD pair.

Apart from Crude oil prices and macroeconomic data, the USD/CAD pair was dropped to its fresh weekly lowest level amid the US dollar’s weakness driven by the hopes that Senate will approve US stimulus checks to increase to $2000 from $600. These hopes dragged the US Dollar Index to its lowest level since April 2018 and reached below 89.52 level that added further losses in the USD/CAD pair.


Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.2776 1.2859

1.2734 1.2902

1.2692 1.2943

Pivot point: 1.2818

The USD/CAD is trading bearish at the 1.2737 level, disrupting the support level of 1.2763. This same level is now working as resistance for USD/CAD. On the lower side, a continuation of a selling trend can extend a bearish move until the 1.2697 level. Since today is the last trading day of the year 2020, we are trying not to open unnecessary trades considering lack of volatility and trading volume. Let’s consider taking a sell trade below 1.2763 today. Good luck!  

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Forex Signals

GBP/USD Bounces off Support – Quick Buy Signal Update!

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.36245 after placing a high of 1.36255 and a low of 1.34888. The British Pound to U.S. Dollar exchange rate climbed to weekly highs as the U.K. Parliament voted for the Brexit trade deal. Barely 24 hours before the U.K.’s final split from the European Union, Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s post-Brexit trade deal won approval from the U.K. Parliament. The agreement earlier crossed the House of Commons with 521 votes in favor of 73 opposing it. The Scottish National Party (SNP) was against the bills while stating that it will harm Scotland’s fishing industry and told PM Johnson that it would bolster the case for independence.

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.36245 after placing a high of 1.36255 and a low of 1.34888. The British Pound to U.S. Dollar exchange rate climbed to weekly highs as the U.K. Parliament voted for the Brexit trade deal. Barely 24 hours before the U.K.’s final split from the European Union, Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s post-Brexit trade deal won approval from the U.K. Parliament. The agreement earlier crossed the House of Commons with 521 votes in favor of 73 opposing it. The Scottish National Party (SNP) was against the bills while stating that it will harm Scotland’s fishing industry and told PM Johnson that it would bolster the case for independence.

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.36245 after placing a high of 1.36255 and a low of 1.34888. The British Pound to U.S. Dollar exchange rate climbed to weekly highs as the U.K. Parliament voted for the Brexit trade deal. Barely 24 hours before the U.K.’s final split from the European Union, Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s post-Brexit trade deal won approval from the U.K. Parliament. The agreement earlier crossed the House of Commons with 521 votes in favor of 73 opposing it. The Scottish National Party (SNP) was against the bills while stating that it will harm Scotland’s fishing industry and told PM Johnson that it would bolster the case for independence.

The GBP/USD pair has also violated the resistance level of 1.3617 level, and on the higher side, the next target remains at the 1.3698 level. On the lower side, the GBP/USD pair may find support at the 1.3617 level for now. We can expect a continuation of an upward trend in the Sterling today.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.3456 1.3533

1.3413 1.3567

1.3379 1.3611

Pivot Point: 1.3490


Entry Price – Buy 1.3662

Stop Loss – 1.3622

Take Profit – 1.3702

Risk to Reward – 1:1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.

iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368

Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

 

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Forex Market Analysis

USD/JPY Complex Correction, What does that mean for Traders?

The USDJPY pair is progressing in an Elliott wave complex correction identified as a triple-three pattern (3-3-3-3-3) of Minute degree, labeled in black. The completion of this downward corrective formation suggests the start of a new rally of the same degree.

The USDJPY pair is progressing in an Elliott wave complex correction identified as a triple-three pattern (3-3-3-3-3) of Minute degree, labeled in black. The completion of this downward corrective formation suggests the start of a new rally of the same degree.

The USDJPY pair is progressing in an Elliott wave complex correction identified as a triple-three pattern (3-3-3-3-3) of Minute degree, labeled in black. The completion of this downward corrective formation suggests the start of a new rally of the same degree.

Technical Overview

The following daily chart shows the USDJPY pair advancing in a corrective structure of Minor degree labeled in green, which began on last March 09th when the price found support at 101.180, from where the price started an aggressive rally that has found resistance and completed wave A in green at 111.715 on March 24th.

According to the Elliot Wave theory’s alternation principle, if the first move is aggressive, the next path should be a slow move elapsing more time than the previous leg. Likely, the second leg will be a triangle or a complex corrective formation. In this regard, the second leg corresponding to wave B in green shows the progress in a triple-three pattern, which follows an internal sequence subdivided into 3-3-3-3-3, where each three is a simple corrective formation.

On the other hand, the MACD oscillator endorses the downward corrective sequence that remains in progress. Likewise, the momentum and timing oscillator confirms the bearish pressure in play. It suggests the possibility of a new decline completing the ending diagonal pattern in progress corresponding to wave (c) of Minuette degree labeled in blue.

Technical Outlook

The long-term outlook for the USDJPY pair under the Elliott Wave perspective, shown in the following daily chart, foresees a potential limited decline until the demand zone, between 102.357 and 101.180, where the price could find fresh buyers expecting to join in the next rally.

The confirmation of its recovery would occur if the USDJPY breaks and closes above the 103.898 level, which corresponds to the end of wave iv of Subminuette degree labeled in green. This potential next rally corresponding to wave C of Minor degree should follow an internal sequence subdivided into five waves. Likewise, if the price extends its gains, USDJPY could continue rallying toward the next supply zone bounded between 109.033 and 109.850. On the other hand, the invalidation of this bullish scenario occurs if the price extends its drops below 101.180.

In summary, the USDJPY pair advances in an incomplete complex corrective pattern identified as a triple-three formation, which currently moves in its third internal segment of wave ((z)). In this regard, the price could decline toward the next demand zone between 102.357 and 101.180. If the price confirms the bottom and starts the rally, the wave C will be confirmed if the price breaks and closes above 103.898. The first potential target is located between 106.561 and 107.050; the second potential target zone is placed between 109.033 until 109.850. Finally, the bullish scenario’s invalidation level is set at 101.180, which corresponds to the March 09th low.

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 31 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – U.S. Jobless Claims Ahead

On Thursday, the German banks will be closed in observance of New Year’s Eve since banks aid most foreign exchange volume. When they are closed, the market is less liquid, and speculators become a more dominant market influence. This can lead to both abnormally weak and abnormally huge volatility. Later throughout the U.S. session, the U.S. unemployment claims will remain in highlights.

On Thursday, the German banks will be closed in observance of New Year’s Eve since banks aid most foreign exchange volume. When they are closed, the market is less liquid, and speculators become a more dominant market influence. This can lead to both abnormally weak and abnormally huge volatility. Later throughout the U.S. session, the U.S. unemployment claims will remain in highlights.

On Thursday, the German banks will be closed in observance of New Year’s Eve since banks aid most foreign exchange volume. When they are closed, the market is less liquid, and speculators become a more dominant market influence. This can lead to both abnormally weak and abnormally huge volatility. Later throughout the U.S. session, the U.S. unemployment claims will remain in highlights.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.22998 after placing a high of 1.23099 and a low of 1.22454. EUR/USD pair rose for the 5th consecutive day on Wednesday and reached above 1.23000 level, its highest since April 2018 amid the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness. The reports that the U.S. Senate has delayed a decision on increasing the coronavirus relief checks added pressure on the U.S. dollar. The Republican Senator Mitch McConnell blocked a move by colleague Bernie Sanders to allow a vote on increasing stimulus checks from $600 to $2000. However, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin announced that direct payments of $600 would be out as soon as this week.

Despite a delay in the vote on the increase in the stimulus checks, the greenback dropped as investors were hopeful that the Senate would approve the rise in stimulus checks. The declining U.S. dollar added strength to the rising EUR/USD pair. On the data front, at 13:00 GMT, Spanish Flash CPI for the year dropped to -0.5% against the expected -0.6% and supported Euro that added additional gains in EUR/USD pair. From the U.S. side, at 18:30 GMT, the Goods Trade Balance from November fell to -84.8B against the projected -81.5B and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added further gains in EUR/USD pair. The Prelim Wholesale Inventories from November also fell to -0.1% against the projected 0.7% and supported the U.S. dollar. At 19:45 GMT, Chicago PMI in December surged to 59.5 against the projected 56.6 and supported the U.S. dollar. At 20:00 GMT, the Pending Home Sales from November fell to -2.6% against the projected 0.1% and weighed on the U.S. dollar that ultimately added gains in EUR/USD pair.

Furthermore, the risk-sensitive EUR/USD pair was also supported by the rising risk sentiment in the market after Britain approved another vaccine made by AstraZeneca and Oxford University. On Wednesday, Britain became the first country to approve the emergency use authorization of a vaccine developed by AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford that offers a 90% efficacy rate with the second vaccine shot.

The news about another vaccine available for use to control the coronavirus’s spread and in cheap amounts gave hopes that the global economic recovery process will speed up. These hopes raised the risk sentiment in the market and supported the currency pair EUR/USD on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, the optimism surrounding the Brexit deal also kept the EUR/USD pair on the upside on Wednesday. However, the EUR/USD pair’s gains remain limited throughout the day as the new variant of coronavirus that was originally discovered in the U.K. reached almost eight European Union nations. This urged E.U. nations to start mass vaccination to control the spread of the virus whereas, Spain was set to register people who refuse to be vaccinated against coronavirus and share it with European Union nations.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.2210    1.2279

1.2175    1.2311

1.2142    1.2347

Pivot point: 1.2243

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EURUSD continues to trade with a bullish bias after violating the ascending triangle pattern, extending resistance at the 1.2265 level. Above this, the odds of bullish trend continuation remains pretty solid. On the higher side, the pair may find resistance at 1.2308, and a bullish breakout of 1.2308 can lead its price towards the 1.2340 level. Bullish bias dominates today.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.36245 after a high of 1.36255 and a low of 1.34888. The British Pound to U.S. Dollar exchange rate climbed to weekly highs as the U.K. Parliament voted for the Brexit trade deal. Barely 24 hours before the U.K.’s final split from the European Union, Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s post-Brexit trade deal won approval from the U.K. Parliament. The agreement earlier crossed the House of Commons with 521 votes in favor of 73 opposing it. The Scottish National Party (SNP) was against the bills while stating that it will harm Scotland’s fishing industry and told PM Johnson that it would bolster the case for independence.

The Sterling got support from the Brexit deal’s approval in the U.K. Parliament and supported the GBP/USD currency pair on Wednesday. At the same time, the U.K. has ordered 100 million doses of the new vaccine that will be enough to vaccinate most of the population. On Wednesday, the U.K. regulatory approved the emergency use authorization to the vaccine of AstraZeneca and Oxford University that is said to offer 90% efficacy against coronavirus with the second vaccine shot. 

On Tuesday, the U.K. reported a record increase in new infections of over 50,000, the largest daily increase since the pandemic began. THE British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has approved placing more parts of the country into tier-4 restrictions as the country was fighting against the new variant of coronavirus, which scientists have warned that could spread more rapidly.

In parts of Southwest England and Cumbria, the ministers were considering imposing the toughest measures to control the spread of a new variant of coronavirus. Johnson announced that a further 20 million people in England will join the toughest tier of coronavirus restrictions from Thursday. These negative developments could not reverse the GBP/USD pair’s movement on Wednesday, and the pair continued increasing for the second consecutive day.

On the data front, at 11:57 GMT, the Nationwide HPI in December came in as 0.8% against the expected 0.4% and supported British Pound, and pushed the pair GBP/USD higher. From the U.S. side, at 18:30 GMT, the Goods Trade Balance from November decreased to -84.8B against the anticipated -81.5B and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added gains in GBP/USD pair. The Prelim Wholesale Inventories from November also decreased to -0.1% against the anticipated 0.7% and supported the U.S. dollar. At 19:45 GMT, Chicago PMI in December surged to 59.5 against the anticipated 56.6 and supported the U.S. dollar. At 20:00 GMT, the Pending Home Sales from November decreased to -2.6% against the anticipated0.1% and weighed on the U.S. dollar that ultimately added further gains in GBP/USD pair.

The U.S. dollar weakness was driven by the hopes that the increase in stimulus checks will be passed in the Senate even though they have delayed the decision. This weakness of the U.S. dollar kept the GBP/USD pair higher on board on Wednesday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.3456    1.3533

1.3413    1.3567

1.3379    1.3611

Pivot Point: 1.3490

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD pair has also violated the resistance level of 1.3617 level, and on the higher side, the next target remains at the 1.3698 level. On the lower side, the GBP/USD pair may find support at the 1.3617 level for now. We can expect a continuation of an upward trend in the Sterling today.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 103.207 after placing a high of 103.591 and a low of 102.959. USD/JPY pair extended its losses on Wednesday amid the declining U.S. dollar despite the market’s rising risk sentiment. The USD/JPY pair fell to its fresh weekly lowest level below 103.00 level on Wednesday as the greenback was very weak across the board against its rival currencies. The U.S. Dollar Index that measures the value of the U.S. dollar against the basket of six major currencies fell to its lowest level for almost three years below 89.52 on Wednesday.

The U.S. Senate delayed its decision on increasing the number of stimulus checks from$600 to $2000 as the Republican Senator Mitch McConnell blocked a move by colleague Bernie Sanders to allow a vote on increasing stimulus checks. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin has announced that direct payments of $600 would be out as soon as this week. Investors were hopeful that the rise in stimulus checks will be accepted by Senate and continued selling the U.S. dollar on Wednesday that ultimately weighed on the currency pair USD/JPY and dragged the pair towards fresh weekly lowest level.

On the data front, at 18:30 GMT, the Goods Trade Balance from November declined to -84.8B against the estimated-81.5B and weighed on the U.S. dollar that dragged the currency pair USD/JPY on the downside. The Prelim Wholesale Inventories from November also dropped to -0.1% against the estimated 0.7% and supported the U.S. dollar. At 19:45 GMT, Chicago PMI in December raised to 59.5 against the estimated 56.6 and supported the U.S. dollar. At 20:00 GMT, the Pending Home Sales from November dropped to -2.6% against the estimated 0.1% and weighed on the U.S. dollar, increasing the USD/JPY pair’s losses.

Furthermore, the market’s risk sentiment was also improved after Great Britain became the first country to approve the vaccine by AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford for emergency use. This vaccine is said to provide 625 efficacy against coronavirus in the first shot that could be increased to 90% in the second shot. After this news, the hopes for economic recovery took their pace as a cheaper vaccine will be wildly available and help control the loss caused by the coronavirus pandemic. This news raised the market’s risk sentiment and added weight on the safe-haven Japanese Yen that ultimately capped further losses in the USD/JPY pair on Wednesday.

The main driver of the currency pair USD/JPY remained the sell-off in the U.S. dollar amid the rising hopes for an increase in stimulus checks the amount, and it will remain at the mercy of the U.S. dollar for a while as there will be no macroeconomic release from Japanese side until next week.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

103.39    103.78

103.23    104.01

103.01    104.17

Pivot point: 103.62

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY violates the sideways range at the 103.500 level. It was a support level extended by an ascending triangle pattern that has already been violated. On the 2 hour timeframe, the USD/JPY pair is gaining support at 103.003 and 102.750 levels along with a resistance level of 103.575, which is extended by a triangle pattern that got violated. The pair is now closing a doji candle over 103.260 support level that suggests odds of bullish correction. On the higher side, the pair can lead towards the 103.575 level and then offer us a sell trade. Let’s brace for it. Good luck!

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Forex Signals

GBP/USD Ascending Triangle Breakout – Brace for Buying! 

Today in the early European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair managed to maintain its bullish bias through the first half of the Asian session and remained bullish around above the mid-1.3500 level. However, the bullish trend was mainly sponsored by the selling tone surrounding the US dollar, which fell to fresh multi-year lows amid increasing bets about the possibility of additional financial aid in the US. Apart from this, the losses in the greenback were further bolstered after the US registered the first case of the covid variant, which instantly put doubt over the US economic recovery and undermined the US dollar. 

Today in the early European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair managed to maintain its bullish bias through the first half of the Asian session and remained bullish around above the mid-1.3500 level. However, the bullish trend was mainly sponsored by the selling tone surrounding the US dollar, which fell to fresh multi-year lows amid increasing bets about the possibility of additional financial aid in the US. Apart from this, the losses in the greenback were further bolstered after the US registered the first case of the covid variant, which instantly put doubt over the US economic recovery and undermined the US dollar. 

Today in the early European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair managed to maintain its bullish bias through the first half of the Asian session and remained bullish around above the mid-1.3500 level. However, the bullish trend was mainly sponsored by the selling tone surrounding the US dollar, which fell to fresh multi-year lows amid increasing bets about the possibility of additional financial aid in the US. Apart from this, the losses in the greenback were further bolstered after the US registered the first case of the covid variant, which instantly put doubt over the US economic recovery and undermined the US dollar. 

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve showed readiness to maintain low-interest rates for a too long period. This, in turn, put additional pressure on the greenback and was seen as one of the key factors that benefitted the GBP/USD currency pair. Across the ocean, the currency pair got an additional lift after the UK health department announced that the government had accepted the proposal by the MHRA to approve the vaccine for use in the UK. On the contrary, the escalating market concerns about the continuous surge in new coronavirus cases and the imposition of new restrictions in the UK keep fueling the doubts over the UK economic recovery, which could cap the gains for the GBP/USD currency pair. At a particular time, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3573 and consolidating in the range between 1.3494 – 1.3579.

As per the latest report, the UK said that regulators had authorized the use of the AstraZeneca/Oxford coronavirus vaccine. The UK health department declared that the government had accepted the recommendation by the MHRA to authorize the vaccine for use in the UK. This progress remained supportive of the already upbeat market mood, which continued weakening the US dollar’s safe-haven demand and contributing to the currency pair gains.

Apart from this, the bearish trend around the US dollar was also sponsored by the rising bets about the likelihood of additional financial aid in the US. It is worth reporting that US Congress members keep struggling to deliver $2,000 paychecks after Senate Majority Republican Leader Mitch McConnell showed a willingness to block the payments earlier in the day. Despite this, the policymaker put forward the bill as a part of the procedure. Meanwhile, the US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin’s announced that the qualified US residents could start receiving the direct stimulus payment of $600 soon, which boosted the market trading sentiment. The market trading sentiment got an additional lift after the President-elect Joe Biden showed readiness for more support measures, which puts additional pressure on the US dollar. 


The GBP/USD pair has also violated the resistance level of 1.3520 level, and on the higher side, the next target remains at the 1.3580 level. On the lower side, the GBP/USD pair may find support at the 1.3520 level now. We can expect a continuation of an upward trend in the Sterling today as the MACD and RSI suggest a bullish trend. Alongside, the GBP/USD pair may soar until the 1.3620 level today as the 50 EMA also extending bullish bias for the Cable.

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 30 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – U.S. Trade Balance Ahead! 

The eyes will remain on the Spanish Flash CPI y/y, the U.S. Chicago PMI, and Pending Home Sales m/m figures on the news side. However, these are low impact events and may not drive sharp moves in the market.

The eyes will remain on the Spanish Flash CPI y/y, the U.S. Chicago PMI, and Pending Home Sales m/m figures on the news side. However, these are low impact events and may not drive sharp moves in the market.

The eyes will remain on the Spanish Flash CPI y/y, the U.S. Chicago PMI, and Pending Home Sales m/m figures on the news side. However, these are low impact events and may not drive sharp moves in the market.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.22489 after placing a high of 1.22748 and a low of 1.22066. EUR/USD currency pair raised on Tuesday for the 4th consecutive day as the U.S. dollar was weak across the board and risk sentiment was high. The European stocks closed higher on Tuesday following a rally on Wall Street in the previous session. The pan-European Stoxx600 indexes ended up 0.76%, with most sectors in the positive territory. The rally has improved the European sentiment in U.S. stocks on Monday that came in after President Donald Trump signed a $900 billion coronavirus relief package into law; the measure will include direct payment to most Americans by $600.

Previously, Trump has demanded a $2000 direct payment days before the signing. On Monday, the House of Representatives voted to increase the second round of direct federal payments to $2000 and left it up to the GOP-controlled Senate. After this, the U.S. stocks rallied and continued rising till Tuesday morning. This pressured on the U.S. dollar ultimately added in the EUR/USD pair’s upward direction on Tuesday.

However, the positive sentiment in Europe came after the Brexit trade deal was secured between the E.U. and U.K. on Christmas Eve. Following this, London’s FTSE100 index rose by 2% on Tuesday. On Monday, the 27 ambassadors from the European Union member nations formally accepted the deal implemented on January 1. This news also supported the upward momentum in the currency pair EUR/USD pair on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, on Tuesday, the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that the European Union would buy an extra 100 million doses of Pfizer and BioNTech’s coronavirus vaccine to bring the total from the two firms to 300 million doses.

She tweeted that they had decided to take an additional 100 million doses of the Pfizer/BionTech vaccine that has already being used to vaccinate people across the E.U. After some of the vaccine contestants organized by the E.U, this plan came in after some of the vaccine candidates faced unexpected delays in clinical trials that forced the bloc and other wealthy nations to rely on shots from fewer manufacturers than initially planned.

The E.U. officials said that the two firms have committed to rapidly deliver 200 million doses after regulatory approval for 15.5 euros per piece. The extra 100 million will be delivered at the same price, but the timetable will be negotiated as they will be delivered in 2021. The E.U.’s goal to roll out vaccine at the mass level also supported the local currency Euro and supported the upward momentum in EUR/USD pair.

The risk sentiment in the market driven by the vaccine rollout, U.S. stimulus, and the Brexit optimism also kept pushing the pair EUR.USD even higher on the board on Tuesday. Moreover, on the data front, at 19:00 GMT, the S&P/CS Composite -20 HPI for the year from the U.S. rose to 7.9% in October from the expected 7.0% and supported the U.S. dollar that capped further upside in the EUR/USD prices.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.2210     1.2279

1.2175     1.2311

1.2142     1.2347

Pivot point: 1.2243

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EURUSD has violated the ascending triangle pattern, which was extending resistance at 1.2265 level, and above this, the odds of bullish trend continuation remain pretty stable. On the lower side, the support stays at the 1.2266 level, and the continuation of an upward trend can lead the pair towards the next resistance level of 1.2317. A slight downward retracement can be expected before a further upward trend.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.35009 after placing a high of 1.35225 and a low of 1.34405. The GBP/USD pair raised on Tuesday despite the rising number of coronavirus cases in the U.K. amid the Brexit development and improved risk sentiment.

The GBP/USD pair was supported on Tuesday from the rising risk sentiment in the market due to more optimistic news from the vaccine front. The U.K. has covered the way for widespread vaccinations with a homegrown shot that will be less expensive and easier to transport and store than other vaccines. For this purpose, the vaccines developed by the University of Oxford and AstraZeneca were set to get approval from the U.K. for emergency use authorization.

The U.K. drug regulator, the Medicines and Health products Regulatory Agency, will imminently authorize the AstraZeneca and Oxford University vaccine for emergency use within days to control the spread of coronavirus in the country. The vaccine’s efficacy rate is 90% after taking two doses, as one dose will provide only 62% efficacy against the coronavirus. Approving another vaccine will help the U.K. government battle against the coronavirus pandemic and lift the severe social distancing restrictions put in place before Christmas.

The new coronavirus cases in the U.K. on Tuesday were recorded as 53,135, and a health regulator of the country has said that the rise in coronavirus cases in the U.K. was of extreme concern. The Health Secretary has announced that the NHS was facing unprecedented pressures as hospitals in England and Wales were treating more coronavirus patients than at the peak of the first wave in April.

On the Brexit front, four days after sealing a free trade agreement with the European Union, the British government warned businesses to get ready for disruptions and bumpy moments when the new rules affect Thursday night. On Monday, the Businesses were scrambling to digest the details and implications of the 1240 page deal sealed between the U.K. and the E.U. on Christmas Eve. Meanwhile, E.U. ambassadors gave their unanimous approval on Monday to the Brexit trade deal with the U.K. However, the deal still needs approval from the E.U. legislature that is expected to come in February. At the same time, the U.K.’s House of Commons is expected to approve it on Wednesday.

After its approval by 27 E.U. ambassadors, the Brexit trade deal’s optimism gave support to British Pound that ultimately pushed the currency pair GBP/USD higher on the board despite the rising number of coronavirus cases in the country. Furthermore, the U.S. dollar was also weak across the board, which also helped the GBP/USD pair keep posting gains on Tuesday. Trump signed the second stimulus bill on Sunday that weighed heavily on local currency. Whereas, on the data front, at 19:00 GMT, the S&P/CS Composite -20 HPI for the year from the U.S. surged to 7.9% in October from the predicted 7.0% and supported the U.S. dollar that capped further gains in the GBP/USD prices on Tuesday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3456     1.3533

1.3413     1.3567

1.3379     1.3611

Pivot point: 1.3490

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD pair has also violated the resistance level of 1.3520 level, and on the higher side, the next target remains at the 1.3580 level. On the lower side, the GBP/USD pair may find support at the 1.3520 level now. We can expect a continuation of an upward trend in the Sterling today as the MACD and RSI suggest a bullish trend. Alongside, the GBP/USD pair may soar until the 1.3620 level today as the 50 EMA also extending bullish bias for the Cable.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 103.530 after placing a high of 103.824 and a low of 103.461. After posting gains for two consecutive days, USD/JPY dropped and posted losses on Tuesday amid the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness despite the risk sentiment. The U.S. Dollar was weak on Tuesday as investors were hopeful that Senate would pass the additional $1400 in stimulus paychecks. The greenback that measures the value of the U.S. dollar against the basket of six currencies was down by 0.24% on Tuesday and weighed on the USD/JPY pair.

The House of Representatives approved the rise in the amount of the stimulus checks from $600 to $2000 earlier in the week. Now the eyes have turned to Senate, where the Majority Leader Mitch McConnell moved to block the rise in the amount on Tuesday. Whereas, U.S. President Donald Trump has urged him to approve the increase in the number of stimulus paychecks.

The greenback has seen steady losses since U.S. President Donald Trump has signed the $2.3 trillion coronaviruses and spending bill on Sunday. Investors shifted from the U.S. dollar immediately after as more stimulus prospects reduced the demand for safe-haven assets. The country’s economic recovery was under threat as the U.S. continuously saw a large number of coronavirus cases, and it has increased the hopes for more fiscal stimulus measures from Congress. Hence, investors kept selling the U.S. dollar in hopes that the Senate could pass the increase in the number of stimulus checks at the last minute.

Furthermore, another reason behind the weakness of the U.S. dollar was that some investors warned that the dollar would fall further in 2021 as President-elect Joe Biden will roll out further stimulus measures. Biden and his administration will come into power on January 20. Despite the weakness of the U.S. dollar, the USD/JPY pair was also falling on the back of increasing figures of coronavirus cases in the U.S. There were also reports suggesting that the new variant of coronavirus first discovered in the U.K. has reached the U.S. The health officials in Colorado confirmed that the infected individual was held in isolation in Elbert Country and that the person was in his 20s and had no travel history.

This also raised the fears for global economic recovery and raised the safe-haven appeal that ultimately supported the safe-haven Japanese yen, and added the USD/JPY pair’s downward momentum on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, on the data front, at 19:00 GMT, the S&P/CS Composite -20 HPI for the year from the U.S. advanced to 7.9% in October from the anticipated 7.0% and supported the U.S. dollar that capped further losses in the USD/JPY prices on Tuesday.

On the other hand, the losses in USD/JPY pair were also capped by the reports that AstraZeneca and University of Oxford’s vaccine were set to receive approval from the U.K.’s regulatory for emergency use authorization. This resulted in improved risk sentiment and weighed on the Japanese Yen due to its safe-haven status and capped further losses in the USD/JPY pair on Tuesday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

103.39     103.78

103.23     104.01

103.01     104.17

Pivot point: 103.62

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY violates the sideways range at the 103.500 level. It was a support level extended by an ascending triangle pattern that has already been violated. On the 2 hour timeframe, the USD/JPY pair is gaining support at 103.250 and 102.980 levels along with a resistance level of 103.575, which is extended by a triangle pattern that got violated. The pair is now closing a doji candle over 103.260 support level that suggests odds of bullish correction. On the higher side, the pair can lead towards the 103.575 level and then offer us a sell trade. Let’s brace for it. Good luck!

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Forex Market Analysis

is EUR-USD Losing its Bullish Momentum?

EURUSD’s big picture reveals an acceleration in its uptrend, which is progressing since the second half of March when the price reached and confirmed its bottom of 1.06359. In this context, since the price saw its yearly low, the common currency is up over 15.2% to date.

EURUSD’s big picture reveals an acceleration in its uptrend, which is progressing since the second half of March when the price reached and confirmed its bottom of 1.06359. In this context, since the price saw its yearly low, the common currency is up over 15.2% to date.

EURUSD’s big picture reveals an acceleration in its uptrend, which is progressing since the second half of March when the price reached and confirmed its bottom of 1.06359. In this context, since the price saw its yearly low, the common currency is up over 15.2% to date.

Technical Overview

The following 2-day chart illustrates the EURUSD pair shows the primary trendline plotted in blue. We see the trend continuing its progression on the bullish side. The secondary trend identified with the green trendline reveals an acceleration of price action since early November when the common currency found support at 1.16025.

On the chart, we see that once the pair found support in early November, it began to rally, finding resistance at 1.22728 in mid-December, where the price started to consolidate until date.

On the other hand, the MACD oscillator shows a bearish divergence, which leads us to suspect the bullish trend’s exhaustion. However, the exhaustion signal doesn’t mean that the EURUSD will reverse the uptrend in progress. Moreover, the momentum and timing oscillators confirm the bullish pressure; however, the reading over level 80 (yellow box) on both indicators suggest the short-term overbought of the common currency. In this regard, the price could experience a short retracement in the following trading sessions before continuing its rally.

Technical Outlook

The EURUSD outlook for the coming weeks illustrated in the following daily chart shows the possibility of a limited correction, which could retrace until the next support located at about 1.20734, where the price could find fresh buyers with a potential target located in the long-term resistance of 1.25229, corresponding to the highs made in February 2018.

The bullish scenario’s confirmation will happen if the price closes above the resistance corresponding to the yearly high of 1.22717. On the other hand, if the common currency closes below 1.20734, the price could decline to the primary trend-line as dynamic support, it even could extend its decline until 1.17657.

Summarizing, the EURUSD pair continues developing a bullish trend, which currently looks consolidating the last rally that began on early November low at 1.16025. The MACD oscillator suggests exhaustion of the current bullish trend. Likewise, the momentum and timing oscillators reveal the common currency’s overbought condition, suggesting a short-term correction.

In this regard, considering that the bullish pressure persists, the price could retrace until 1.20734, where the EURUSD could find fresh buyers. However, the close above 1.22717 would confirm the upward continuation till the next long-term resistance of 1.25229. On the contrary, if the price closes below 1.20734, the common currency could extend its drops to 1.17657.

Categories
Forex Signals

AUD/USD Soars Higher – Upward Channel Supports! 

The AUD/USD closed at 0.75809 after placing a high of 0.76223 and a low of 0.75570. After placing bullish moves for two consecutive days, the AUD/USD pair fell after a long weekend despite the rising risk-on market sentiment amid the rebound in the greenback. The US President Donald Trump raised the global markets on Monday after signing the coronavirus stimulus bill that was long-awaited and has been under negotiations since May. Though his demand for $2000 paychecks and removal of section 230 was currently under debate in the Senate, the US Treasury has already said to disburse $600 weekly paychecks.

The AUD/USD closed at 0.75809 after placing a high of 0.76223 and a low of 0.75570. After placing bullish moves for two consecutive days, the AUD/USD pair fell after a long weekend despite the rising risk-on market sentiment amid the rebound in the greenback. The US President Donald Trump raised the global markets on Monday after signing the coronavirus stimulus bill that was long-awaited and has been under negotiations since May. Though his demand for $2000 paychecks and removal of section 230 was currently under debate in the Senate, the US Treasury has already said to disburse $600 weekly paychecks.

The AUD/USD closed at 0.75809 after placing a high of 0.76223 and a low of 0.75570. After placing bullish moves for two consecutive days, the AUD/USD pair fell after a long weekend despite the rising risk-on market sentiment amid the rebound in the greenback. The US President Donald Trump raised the global markets on Monday after signing the coronavirus stimulus bill that was long-awaited and has been under negotiations since May. Though his demand for $2000 paychecks and removal of section 230 was currently under debate in the Senate, the US Treasury has already said to disburse $600 weekly paychecks.

Meanwhile, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi showed readiness to get the $2000 passed in Congress. This raised the risk sentiment in the already high market because of the vaccine rollout and Brexit optimism. However, the Aussie-China tussle and the fear of a new variant of coronavirus kept the pair AUD/USD under pressure.

According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs, China’s import of Australian copper concentrate fell by 34% to 26,717 tonnes in November, the lowest level since January 2017. On the other hand, Australia insisted the World Health Organization (WHO) inquiry into coronavirus origin must be robust, despite China’s tensions.

Looking forward, a lack of major data requires the pair of traders to watch risk catalysts for immediate direction. Among them, the US stimulus passage and any developments on the Canberra-Beijing tension will be the key. 

Meanwhile, the US dollar was weak across the board due to the stimulus bill turned into legislation after Trump signed it. The US Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies edged down 0.15% to 90.112 that capped further downside in AUD/USD pair. In the absence of any macroeconomic data and holiday-thinned trading, the currency pair AUD/USD remained depressed on Monday.


Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

0.7548 0.7616 

0.7519 0.7653

0.7481 0.7683

Pivot point: 0.7586

The AUD/USD is trading bullish at the 0.76050 level, forming an upward channel on the two-hourly timeframes. The AUD/USD pair may find resistance at the 0.7625 level, and a bullish breakout of this level can extend the buying trend until the 0.7680 level. On the lower side, the support stays at the 0.7560 mark. Bullish crossover of AUD/USD pair is likely to drive the further upward trend in Aussie; however, taking a bullish trade can be risky at this movement, especially when the market volatility is at its lowest. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 29 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Technical Levels in Play! 

On Tuesday, the market’s fundamental side is mostly muted as we don’t have any significant economic data scheduled from any economy. The S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y will be released during the U.S. session; however, it’s low-impact and may not drive any major movement in the market today.

On Tuesday, the market’s fundamental side is mostly muted as we don’t have any significant economic data scheduled from any economy. The S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y will be released during the U.S. session; however, it’s low-impact and may not drive any major movement in the market today.

On Tuesday, the market’s fundamental side is mostly muted as we don’t have any significant economic data scheduled from any economy. The S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y will be released during the U.S. session; however, it’s low-impact and may not drive any major movement in the market today.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.22142 after placing a high of 1.22501 and a low of 1.21809. EUR/USD pair posted gains on Monday; however, some of the gains were lost in the late trading session. On the first day of the new trading week, the EUR/USD pair moved on the upside on the back of a weak U.S. dollar and the rising risk sentiment in the market. The global risk sentiment remained well supported by the latest optimism over a last0-minute Brexit deal and got an additional boost after the U.S. President Donald Trump finally signed the $2.3 trillion pandemic aid and spending package.

On Sunday, U.S. President Donald Trump signed the bipartisan bill of $2.3 trillion packages, including $900 billion for stimulus checks and $1.4 trillion for government funding. Trump, who first called this bill a disgrace, signed the bill and made it legislation as the government was near to shut down. However, he urged the U.S. Congress to increase the stimulus check amount to $2000 from $600. Given his calls, the House of Representatives led by Democratic leaders approved the CASH Act on Monday. The Act was designed to support Trump’s decision to increase the stimulus checks. The House voted 275-134 on Monday to increase the proposed $600 payments to more than triple $2000 and send it to Senate.

All these developments in the U.S. stimulus measure raised the market’s risk sentiment that ultimately added strength in the risk perceived EUR/USD pair. Meanwhile, another reason behind the EUR/USD pair’s upward momentum was the sharp rise in European markets on Monday. At the start of the last trading week of 2020, the Brexit developments and the U.S. stimulus measure raised the risk sentiment that supported the European stocks to move higher levels added in the EUR/USD pair. France’s CAC40 rose by 1.3%, the Swiss SMI surged by 1.8%, and Germany’s DAX index finished up by 1.5% on Monday.

However, some of the EUR/USD pair gains in the late trading session on Monday were lost after the news of a new variant of coronavirus reaching eight European countries emerged. The more contagious variant of coronavirus identified in the U.K. has been confirmed to be reported in Spain, Switzerland, Sweden, and France. This spread of a new variant of coronavirus affected EUR/USD’s upward momentum by weighing on the local currency Euro, as fears for economic slowdown emerged again in the European countries.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.2179     1.2249

1.2144     1.2286

1.2108     1.2320

Pivot Point: 1.2215

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

On Tuesday, the EUR/USD consolidating in a narrow trading range of 1.2259 – 1.2205. On the 2 hour timeframe, the EUR/USD has formed an ascending triangle pattern supporting the pair around 1.2204 and a resistance at 1.2259. The MACD and RSI have now shifted to the bullish zone, supporting a bullish trend in the EUR/USD pair. Additionally, the 50 periods EMA supports the pair at 1.2204, and it’s also expending bullish sentiment for the EUR/USD pair today. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.34574 after a high of 1.35760 and a low of 1.34289. On Monday, the currency pair GBP/USD fell sharply as market participants showed concerns that the post-Brexit trade agreement will slow the trade after the crucial services sector was largely excluded from the deal. The mayor of French fishing port has warned that Thursday’s historic Brexit trade deal between the U.K. and E.U. still left the fishing sector with many key questions unanswered. The mayor of Boulogne-sur-Mer, Frederic Cuvillier, said that the agreement left French fishermen wondering how it will impact them once the festive season was over. 

The long-awaited agreement between the two parties was resolved after granting a five-year transition period over fisheries, after which E.U. fish captures ought to be reduced by 25%. The concession was given from the U.K., who has initially demanded 60% at the start of the negotiations. Furthermore, on financial services, the Brexit deal is said to go in favor of the E.U. According to Boris Johnson, the agreement on financial services has fallen short of U.K. hopes. He said that perhaps the financial sector did not go as far as the U.K. would like. After these comments, Rishi Sunak offered financial services firms the prospect of closer access to E.U. markets than outlined in the Brexit trade deal.

Sunak said that he hoped that a planned memorandum of understanding on this issue between the U.K. and E.U. would smooth over many obstacles in the next few months. However, all these tensions weighed on the local currency British Pound and dragged the GBP/USD pair to the downside.

Meanwhile, the U.K. reported its highest day of new coronavirus infections on Monday with 41,385 new COVID-19 cases. The surge was driven by the new variant of the virus that is more transmissible and has forced the hospitals to cancel non-urgent procedures and scramble to find the space. Even though the new variant does not appear to make people sicker, it is believed to be up to 70% more contagious, resulting in an increased number of coronavirus infections in the U.K.

The rising number of coronavirus in the country and its faster rate affected the local currency, as hopes for an economic recovery dampened and weighed on the GBP/USD pair. It was another reason behind the downward momentum of the GBP/USD pair on Monday. However, the pair’s losses were limited on Monday due to the weakness of the U.S. dollar. The greenback was weak across the board as the U.S. President Donald Trump has signed the new coronavirus relief bill, turning it into law on Sunday. 

Whereas, the House of Representatives, which is led by Democrats, held a vote on the CASH Act on Monday, approved the Act, and passed it to the Senate. According to CASH Act, the number of stimulus checks in the bipartisan bill of $600 will be increased to $2000 as demanded by U.S. President Donald Trump and supported by the House of Democrats.

All the U.S. stimulus relief bill developments weighed on the U.S. dollar and capped further losses in the GBP/USD pair on Monday in the absence of any macroeconomic data release.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3393     1.3541

1.3337     1.3633

1.3245     1.3689

Pivot point: 1.3485

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading at 1.3485, having supported over 1.3443 level. The support level is extended by an upward trendline on the two-hourly timeframes. The GBP/USD pair is likely to face resistance at the 1.3525 level, and a bullish crossover of 1.3525 level can drive Sterling’s price towards 1.3620. The bullish trendline is likely to support the pair today at the 1.3443 level, and violation of this can extend the selling trend until the 1.3343 level.     

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair closed at 103.778 after placing a high of 103.896 and a low of 103.402. The currency pair USD/JPY extended its gains on Monday and raised for the second consecutive day as the market’s risk sentiment increased. The risk-on market sentiment was driven by the latest decision of Donald Trump to sign the bipartisan stimulus bill of $2.3 trillion that he had initially refused to pass. 

The U.S. President Donald Trump turned the bill of $2.3 trillion, including $900 billion for pandemic aid and $1.4 trillion for spending package on Sunday as the government was near to shut down in less than 30 days. However, despite signing the bill, Donald Trump continued urging Congress to increase the number of stimulus checks from $600 per person to $2000. Followed by his calls, the House of Representatives with a Democratic majority approved the CASH Act on Monday to allow the rise in payment of stimulus checks demanded by Donald Trump. The CASH Act was approved by Democrats and sent to Senate for further proceedings.

This added in to the risk sentiment as it raised hopes for economic recovery in a depressing environment and weighed on the safe-haven Japanese Yen that ultimately added in the USD/JPY pair’s upward momentum on Monday. Furthermore, the Bank of Japan released the summary of opinions at the December rate review that showed that the B.O. policymakers were divided on how far to go in changing its stimulus program, with some calling for an overhaul of its strategy achieving 2% inflation. 

The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, said that the policy review would not lead to big changes to yield curve control (YCC) instead of focusing on fine-tuning the framework to make it more sustainable. However, some BOJ board members called for a more ambitious review as the hit to grow from coronavirus stokes fears of a return to deflation. 

On the data front, at 04:50 GMT, the Prelim Industrial Production reduced to 0.0% against the forecasted 1.4% and weighed on the Japanese Yen that added gains in the USD/JPY pair. Meanwhile, the USD/JPY pair’s gains were limited on Monday as the U.S. dollar was weak across the board due to the second round of stimulus relief package issuance. The bill will restore unemployment benefits to millions of Americans and averted a partial federal government shutdown that would have begun on Thursday. It raised the risk sentiment and weighed on the U.S. dollar that ultimately capped further upside in the USD/JPY pair on Monday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

103.47     104.02

103.25     104.37

102.91     104.58

Pivot point: 103.81

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading sideways at the 103.700 level, supported by an ascending triangle pattern. On the 2 hour timeframe, the USD/JPY pair is gaining support at 103.600 and 103.400 levels along with a resistance level of 103.860, which is extended by a triple top pattern. The pair is now closing a series of doji and spinning top candles, suggesting neutral bias among investors. It’s common during such a timeframe of December as most of the traders are on holiday. Let’s consider taking a buy trade over 103.860 level and selling below the same as this level is of major importance today. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

USD/CAD Sideways Trading Continues – Brace to Capture Breakout! 

A day before, the USD/CAD opened at 1.28497, and it has placed a high of 1.28602 and a low of 1.28277 so far. The USD/CAD pair dropped on Monday amid the US dollar’s weakness and the rising crude oil prices. The USD/CAD pair dropped on Monday on the first day of the new trading week as the market’s risk sentiment was improved and supported the risk perceived Canadian Dollar. The risk sentiment in the market was high due to the latest Brexit trade-deal optimism and was further supported by the news of the US stimulus bill.

A day before, the USD/CAD opened at 1.28497, and it has placed a high of 1.28602 and a low of 1.28277 so far. The USD/CAD pair dropped on Monday amid the US dollar’s weakness and the rising crude oil prices. The USD/CAD pair dropped on Monday on the first day of the new trading week as the market’s risk sentiment was improved and supported the risk perceived Canadian Dollar. The risk sentiment in the market was high due to the latest Brexit trade-deal optimism and was further supported by the news of the US stimulus bill.

A day before, the USD/CAD opened at 1.28497, and it has placed a high of 1.28602 and a low of 1.28277 so far. The USD/CAD pair dropped on Monday amid the US dollar’s weakness and the rising crude oil prices. The USD/CAD pair dropped on Monday on the first day of the new trading week as the market’s risk sentiment was improved and supported the risk perceived Canadian Dollar. The risk sentiment in the market was high due to the latest Brexit trade-deal optimism and was further supported by the news of the US stimulus bill.

On Sunday, the US President Donald Trump signed a $2.3 trillion coronavirus relief and government funding bill that added optimism over a last-minute Brexit trade deal and supported the risk perceived Canadian Dollar. The strong Loonie added pressure on the USD/CAD pair that started to decline on Monday.

The US President Donald Trump, who initially called the bipartisan coronavirus bill a disgrace and threatened to reject the bill, backed down from his decision and signed the bill to make it legislation. The bill will include $900 billion in coronavirus relief bill and $1.4 trillion in government funding that would expire after 24 hours. The passing of the second round of the coronavirus relief bill before the US government shutdown soared the risk sentiment and pressured on the US dollar that ultimately added further to the USD/CAD pair’s losses. The greenback was lower in early trading hours on Monday as USD bulls were largely unimpressed by a goodish pickup in the US Treasury bond yields. 

Meanwhile, on the WTI Crude oil front, the energy source prices rose on Monday as they hit $48.25 due to increased risk sentiment in the market and lower US dollar prices. The rising crude oil prices supported the commodity-linked currency Loonie that ultimately added further pressure on the USD/CAD pair on Monday. Another reason behind the declining USD/CAD pair and the Canadian Dollardollar’s strength against the greenback could also be the last-minute Brexit deal. On the last trading session on Thursday, the Canadian Dollar was strong against its counterpart US dollar as Britain secured a long-awaited Brexit deal with the EU. 

The US dollar was already lower because of the Brexit deal against the basket of major six currencies, and Trump’s decision to pass the US stimulus bill added further in it that pushed the US Dollar Index lower on Monday and supported the bearish momentum in USD/CAD pair.

In the absence of any major macroeconomic release from the Canadian or US side, the pair USD/CAD continued declining on the back of the rising Canadian Dollar, improved risk sentiment amid the Brexit deal and US stimulus package, and the declining US dollar and rising Crude oil prices on Monday.


Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.2826 1.2856

1.2814 1.2874

1.2796 1.2886

Pivot Point: 1.2844

The USD/CAD consolidates in a narrow trading range of 1.2860 – 1.2812 level. The market isn’t moving a lot as the global banks are closed due to the boxing day holiday. The 50 EMA and MACD are suggesting odds of neutral bias in the market. However, we can expect to take a buying trade over the 1.2860 level to target the 1.2930 level. On the lower side, the violation of the 1.2810 level can extend the selling trend until the 1.2760 level. Let’s wait for a breakout to capture a quick buy or a sell trade. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

AUD/USD Upward Channel In-Play – Daily Outlook! 

The AUD/USD opened at 0.75996, and it has placed a high of 0.76185 and a low of 0.75824 so far. AUD/USD pair seemed to extend its previous gains after moving in a bullish trend for two consecutive sessions on Monday. The upward momentum in the AUD/USD pair could be attributed to the US dollar weakness and rising risk sentiment in the market after a long weekend. The main reason behind the improved risk sentiment and the US dollar weakness was the news that US President Donald Trump has signed the second stimulus relief bill on Sunday.

The AUD/USD opened at 0.75996, and it has placed a high of 0.76185 and a low of 0.75824 so far. AUD/USD pair seemed to extend its previous gains after moving in a bullish trend for two consecutive sessions on Monday. The upward momentum in the AUD/USD pair could be attributed to the US dollar weakness and rising risk sentiment in the market after a long weekend. The main reason behind the improved risk sentiment and the US dollar weakness was the news that US President Donald Trump has signed the second stimulus relief bill on Sunday.

The AUD/USD opened at 0.75996, and it has placed a high of 0.76185 and a low of 0.75824 so far. AUD/USD pair seemed to extend its previous gains after moving in a bullish trend for two consecutive sessions on Monday. The upward momentum in the AUD/USD pair could be attributed to the US dollar weakness and rising risk sentiment in the market after a long weekend. The main reason behind the improved risk sentiment and the US dollar weakness was the news that US President Donald Trump has signed the second stimulus relief bill on Sunday.

Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump signed a $2.3 trillion stimulus package that would incude$900 billion for coronavirus relief and $1.4 trillion for government funding through next September. Initially, Trump called the package a “disgrace” and rejected to sign it into legislation and demanded to increase the stimulus checks to $2000; however, he backed down from his decision as the current government funding level was close to run out. The $900 billion coronavirus relief bill will provide $600 per person who makes less than $75000. 

As the US government shutdown was near, the second round of the US stimulus bill provided hope to the investors that the economy will start recovering soon, raising the risk sentiment in the market. 

This market sentiment supported the risk perceived Australian dollar, and the pair AUD/USD continued moving in the upward direction on Monday. Meanwhile, the US dollar also came under pressure after Donald Trump passed the second stimulus bill of $2.3 trillion as it would hurt the local currency. The AUD/USD pair got more strength from the US dollar’s weakness and raised its gains on Monday. Furthermore, the AUD/USD pair’s gains remained limited on Monday due to the latest pessimistic comments from the leading experts of China. The Tsinghua University’s Yan Xuetong said that though President-elect Joe Biden’s diplomatic strategy will be largely different from Trump’s strategy, it does not mean that US-China relations will improve. He added that Biden might seek to use the damage caused by Trump as a bargaining chip to get what he wants from Beijing. 

These comments from top experts from China added to the tension lingering between the world’s two largest economies and weighed on the China-proxy Australian dollar that ultimately limited the AUD/USD pair’s upward momentum on Monday. However, the holiday-thinned trading condition and the absence of any macroeconomic data from either side, the currency pair AUD/USD continued following the market’s risk sentiment and remained on the upside on Monday. 


Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

 0.7597 0.7619

0.7583 0.7627

0.7575 0.7641

Pivot point: 0.7605

The AUD/USD is trading at 0.7584 level, supported by an upward channel on the 2-hour timeframe. The 50 periods EMA is also supporting the pair at the 0.7580 level, and the MACD is closing histograms below 0, suggesting strong chances of selling. Since there’s a conflict between leading and lagging indicators, we may need to wait for either a bearish breakout below the 0.7580 level to take a sell trade or take a buying trade over 0.7580 once the MACD starts closing histograms over 0. Let’s keep an eye on the pair. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 28 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Boxing Day Holiday! 

Welcome back to a fresh week after a long weekend. I hope you had a fantastic Christmas. The global banks will be closed in observance of Boxing Day today; therefore, we may have thin volatility and trading volume today in the market. Let’s check out the technical side of the market. 

Welcome back to a fresh week after a long weekend. I hope you had a fantastic Christmas. The global banks will be closed in observance of Boxing Day today; therefore, we may have thin volatility and trading volume today in the market. Let’s check out the technical side of the market. 

Welcome back to a fresh week after a long weekend. I hope you had a fantastic Christmas. The global banks will be closed in observance of Boxing Day today; therefore, we may have thin volatility and trading volume today in the market. Let’s check out the technical side of the market. 

 

Economic Events to Watch Today  


 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD succeeded in maintaining its overnight bullish bias and remained well bid around above the 1.2200 level. However, the currency pair’s sentiment was being supported by the latest progress over the massive U.S. government spending bill and COVID-19 relief measures, which undermined the safe-haven U.S. dollar and contributed to the currency pair gains. 

Moreover, the S&P 500 Futures sentiment was further bolstered by the recent passage of the Brexit deal and upbeat comments from the covid vaccine producers, which in turn, added further weakness to the greenback and contributed to the currency pair gains. In contrast to this, the intensifying concerns about increasing COVID-19 deaths and the possibility of economically-painful hard lockdowns keep questioning the pair’s upside momentum. As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.2226 and consolidating in the range between 1.2181 – 1.2227.

The S&P 500 Futures enter the 3,700 marks and refreshed intraday high near 3,710 during early Monday. The market trading sentiment recently gained bids after U.S. President Donald Trump signed the much-awaited coronavirus (COVID-19) aid package, which instantly boosted the investor’s confidence. As per the New York Post, President Trump has signed a $2.3 trillion COVID-19 relief and government funding bill that includes $600 stimulus checks for most Americans. The funding bill authorizes direct checks of $600 for people earning up to $75,000 per year. In addition to this, the bill creates a new $300 weekly unemployment supplement and replenishes a forgivable loan program for small businesses, while there’s an additional $600 per child stimulus payment. This latest optimism put a bid under risk assets and weighed over the safe-haven U.S. dollar. 

Elsewhere, the gains in the currency pair were further bolstered after the passage of the Brexit deal and upbeat remarks from the covid vaccine makers. As per the latest report, the U.K.’s Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said that the United Kingdom is now seeking trade deals with Australia, the United States, and countries in the Indo-Pacific region.” Across the pond, the AstraZeneca CEO Pascal Soriot said that their covid vaccine is effective against the new strain, which in turn exerted an additional positive impact on the market trading sentiment and contributed to the currency pair gains.

Looking ahead, the market traders will keep their eyes only on updates surrounding the virus, vaccine, and the U.S. stimulus package. However, the global markets may witness a dull trading session amid the year-end celebration mood and off at major bourses. 

Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.2143 1.2231

1.2090 1.2266

1.2055 1.2320

Pivot point: 1.2178

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is trading with a bullish bias at the 1.2224 area, having crossed over the triple top resistance level of 1.2200, now working as a support for the EUR/USD. Continuation of an upward trend can extend the buying trend until the 1.2250 level. The EUR/USD pair violates the symmetric triangle pattern, which is likely to drive further upward movement in the market. Bullish bias seems dominant today.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair managed to maintain its bullish bias through the first half of the Asian session and remained bullish around above the mid-1.3500 level due to the prevalent risk-on market sentiment, which tends to undermine the safe-haven U.S. dollar and contributes to the currency pair gains. Hence the market trading sentiment was supported by the hopes of coronavirus vaccine and progress toward a massive U.S. government spending bill and COVID-19 relief measures. 

On the contrary, the currency pair trimmed some of its sharp gains during Monday’s European session as the renewed uncertainties over the future of the recently signed Brexit deal tend to undermine the British Pound even as markets are off in the U.K. Furthermore, the currency pair’s gains were also capped by the growing market concerns about the continuous rise in new coronavirus cases and the enforcement of fresh restrictions in the U.K. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3561 and consolidating in the range between 1.3530 – 1.3576.

Despite the recent passage of the Brexit deal, the doubts over the key issues like the level Playing Field, Finance, and Gibraltar remain on the cards as the U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has admitted it is an agreement which does not have as much as he would have liked about the financial services sector and regulatory equivalence. He further added that this agreement would give the people hope that we will remain in close dialogue with our European partners regarding things like equivalence decisions. In that way, the uncertainties over the recently signed Brexit deal’s future exerted downside pressure on the GBP/USD currency pair.

Despite this, the S&P 500 Futures managed to extend its previous session’s positive performance and refreshed intraday high near 3,710 during the early European session on the day. The market trading sentiment recently gained bids after U.S. President Donald Trump signed the much-awaited coronavirus (COVID-19) aid package, which instantly boosted the investor’s confidence. As per the New York Post, President Trump has signed a $2.3 trillion COVID-19 relief and government funding bill that includes $600 stimulus checks for most Americans. The funding bill authorizes direct reviews of $600 for people earning up to $75,000 per year. 

In addition to this, the bill creates a new $300 weekly unemployment supplement and replenishes a forgivable loan program for small businesses, while there’s an additional $600 per child stimulus payment. This latest optimism put a bid under risk assets and weighed over the safe-haven U.S. dollar. 

Looking ahead, the market traders will keep their eyes only on updates surrounding the virus, vaccine, and the U.S. stimulus package as the global markets witnessing a dull trading session amid the year-end celebration mood and off at significant bourses. 

Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.3442 1.3562

1.3378 1.3618 

1.3322 1.3683

Pivot point: 1.3498

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The Sterling is trading with a bullish bias at 1.376 level, heading further higher towards the next resistance level of 1.3650 level. Support stays at 1.3495 level today. This support level is extended by an upward trendline, which can be seen in the 4-hour timeframe. On the higher side, the GBP/USD pair can prolong the buying trend unto the 1.3622 level, and the bullish trend continuation can lead the GBP/USD pair towards the 1.3706 mark. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY failed to stop its previous-session bearish bias and remained depressed around below the 103.50 level, mainly due to the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness. The fresh optimism was pressuring the U.S. dollar that the U.S. President Donald Trump signed a $2.3 trillion COVID-19 relief and government funding bill, urging investors to retreat from the safe-haven investment riskier assets. Apart from this, the losses in the U.S. dollar could also be attributed to the lingering doubts over the U.S. economic recovery from COVID-1, which adds further burden around the U.S. dollar and contributes to the currency pair losses. 

The upbeat market sentiment, backed by the hopes of coronavirus vaccine and the U.S. covid stimulus, boosted investors’ confidence and undermined the safe-haven Japanese yen, which, in turn, was seen as one of the leading factors that helped the USD/JPY currency pair to limit its deeper losses.

Despite the worries over the coronavirus pandemic’s resurgence, the optimism over a possible vaccine for the highly infectious coronavirus disease has remained supportive of the market risk tone. Also favoring the optimism could be the recent comments from the covid vaccine producers. As per the keywords, AstraZeneca CEO Pascal Soriot said that their covid vaccine is effective against the new strain. Thus, the risk-on market mood tends to undermine the safe-haven Japanese yen, which becomes the key factor that lends some support to the currency pair to ease the intraday bearish pressure surrounding the USD/JPY currency pair.

In addition to this, the sentiment around the equity market was improved further after U.S. President Donald Trump signed a $2.3 trillion COVID-19 relief and government funding bill. It is worth noted that U.S. President Trump had signed a $2.3 trillion COVID-19 relief and government funding bill that includes $600 stimulus checks for most Americans. The funding bill authorizes direct reviews of $600 for people earning up to $75,000 per year. Furthermore, the bill creates a new $300 weekly unemployment supplement and provides a forgivable loan program for small businesses. Besides this, there’s an additional $600 per child stimulus payment. 

This, in turn, the broad-based U.S. dollar failed to stop its bearish trend and remained depressed on the day. Apart from this, doubts over the U.S. economic recovery remains on the cards amid rising COVID-19 deaths, which adds further burden around the greenback. However, the losses in the U.S. dollar becomes the key factor that kept the currency pair lower. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a bucket of currencies, dropped by 0.15% to 90.112 by 12:09 AM ET (5:09 AM GMT).

In contrast to this, the optimism around the equity market was slightly unaffected by the intensifying market worries regarding the continuous rise in new coronavirus cases in the U.S. and Europe, which keep sparking the worries over the global economic recovery through imposing new lockdown restrictions on economic and social activity. Furthermore, the equity market gains were also capped by the renewed uncertainty over the Brexit deal and intensified China-US tussles.

There isn’t any major market-moving economic data due for release on the day, which in turn, the market traders will keep their eyes only on updates surrounding the virus, vaccine, and the U.S. stimulus package as the global markets seeing a dull trading session amid the year-end celebration mood and off at major bourses.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

103.47 104.02

103.25 104.37

102.91 104.58

Pivot point: 103.81

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY trades choppy in between a narrow trading range of 103.750 – 103.360 level. The safe-haven USD/JPY pair faces immediate support of 103.360, and the formation of candles above this level can drive the buying trend until 103.746. Whereas, bullish trend continuation can extend further buying trend until 104.090 level. The MACD and RSI are suggesting selling bias as it’s forming histograms below 0 level. While the 50 EMA also supports the selling trend. Let’s consider taking a selling trade until the 102.990 level today. Good luck!

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave Forex Market Analysis

GBPCAD Triangle Pattern Completion. What’s Next?

The GBPCAD cross shows the completion of an Elliott wave triangle developed in its wave ((b)) of Minute degree, which moves inside the incomplete wave 2 of Minor degree. 

The GBPCAD cross shows the completion of an Elliott wave triangle developed in its wave ((b)) of Minute degree, which moves inside the incomplete wave 2 of Minor degree. 

The GBPCAD cross shows the completion of an Elliott wave triangle developed in its wave ((b)) of Minute degree, which moves inside the incomplete wave 2 of Minor degree. 

Technical Overview

The big picture of GBPCAD cross under the Elliott Wave view exposed in the following daily chart shows the progress of a corrective structure that began on March 09th when the price found fresh sellers at 1.80531. Once the cross topped at 180531, the cross completed an impulsive wave identified as wave 1 of Minor degree labeled in green and began to develop its wave 2 of the same degree, which remains incomplete.

The previous chart also shows the price developed its wave ((a)) of Minute degree in black as a sharp decline, making its next path corresponding to wave ((b)) as a triangle pattern. This price context carries us to verify the alternation principle between waves inside a corrective pattern. In fact,  the speedy first corrective leg gave way to an elapsed second move in an extended time range compared with wave ((a)). Likewise, the next decline corresponding to wave ((c)) shouldn’t be as quick as wave ((a)).

On the other hand, the piercing below the base-line of the triangle that connects the end of waves (b) and (d) of Minuette degree labeled in blue suggests that the cross could see further declines in the following weeks. Additionally, considering that the price action didn’t surpass the end of wave (e), the likelihood of further drops increases.

Technical Outlook

The next daily chart exposes the time segment of the corrective sequence corresponding to wave 2 of Minor degree, in which waves ((a)) and ((b)) in black were moving for 259 days, starting when the cross topped at 1.80531 and till the end of wave (e) in blue. Additionally, the piercing of the base-line that connects the end of waves (b) and (b) suggests that wave (c) should be in progress.

In this context, the incomplete bearish sequence in progress corresponding to wave ((c)) could extend in a fraction of 259 days, for example, 50 percent of that time or approximately 130 days, which carries us to foresee a downward correction in the GBPCAD cross till early April 2021. Likewise, the potential bearish target zone can be found between 1.65562 and 1.63042.

In summary, the GBPCAD cross advances in an incomplete corrective sequence corresponding to wave 2 of Minor degree. Simultaneously, its internal structure reveals the progress in its wave ((c)). The potential bearish target for this segment extends between 165562 and 1.63042. Also, the downward sequence could elapse until early April 2021. Finally, the invalidation level of the current bearish scenario is located at 1.75549.

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave Forex Market Analysis

Is the US Dollar Index Finding A Bottom?

Technical Overview

Technical Overview

Technical Overview

The US Dollar Index (DXY) continues bouncing in the extreme bearish sentiment zone, testing the resistance at 90.983. The breakout of this resistance level could lead to expect further upsides in the following trading sessions.

The following figure shows the US Dollar Index in its 8-hour timeframe exposing the mid-term market participants’ sentiment unfolded by the 90-day high and low range, revealing the bearish trend’s exhaustion. In this context, the surpassing of the next resistance at 90.983 could warn about the Greenback recovery, which could boost the price until the next resistance is located at 92.236. Likewise, the exhaustion could imply the consolidation of the bearish trend.

On the other hand, the primary mid-term trend plotted in blue shows the bearish pressure that remains in progress and the current since DXY found resistance at 94.742 on September 25th. Likewise, the secondary trend identified with the accelerated green downward trendline shows a pause of the short-term downtrend started at 94.302 on November 04th. In this context, the pause in progress represented by the rising minor trend could develop a limited rally, which could carry the price to test the precious swing at 91.200 reached on December 09th.

Technical Outlook

The short-term Elliott wave view for DXY exposed in the next 4-hour chart reveals the end of the bearish wave ((iii)) of Minute degree labeled in black and the start of wave ((iv)) of the same degree, suggesting the possibility of a corrective rally, which could take until January 20212.

From the previous chart, we distinguish the start of wave ((iv)) identified in black, which began when DXY found support at 89.73 on December 17th, ending the third wave of Minute degree labeled in black. Likewise, the price action surpassed the short-term downward trendline plotted in green, suggesting the bearish sequence’s exhaustion that began at 94.302 on November 04th.

With the short-term trendline piercing, DXY developed the first segment of a corrective wave of Subminuette degree identified as wave a labeled in green, which found resistance in the supply zone between 91.014 and 91.200. Once topped at 91.018, the Greenback retraced, developing its wave b of the same degree, which found support in the intraday demand zone between 90.262 and 90.059. 

The textbook suggests that the price action should develop a third move identified as wave c in green, which could advance until the next supply zone bounded between 91.412 and 91.580. Once the US Dollar Index completes the third segment, the Greenback will complete the wave (a) of Minuette degree identified in blue corresponding to the first segment of the wave ((iv)) in black.

In summary, the US Dollar Index looks starting to develop the first segment of the fourth wave of Minute degree, suggesting the pause of the primary trend’s downtrend, which could last up until January 2021. In this regard, DXY currently found temporary support at 89.730, and the price could develop a new decline corresponding to the fifth wave of Minute degree. The potential next decline could pierce the previous low, being its potential next bearish target located at 88.864. Finally, if the price action surpasses the invalidation level placed at 92.107, the Greenback could start to show recovery signals, which could carry to expect a bullish reversal move.

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave Forex Market Analysis

AUDNZD: Profiting from its Intraday Triangle Pattern

The AUDNZD cross seems to start a movement in wave 3 of Minor degree labeled in green after completing its second corrective wave of the same degree, which found its bottom at 1.04181 on December 01st.

Technical Overview

The big picture of the AUDNZD cross and under the Elliott Wave perspective and illustrated in the following daily chart reveals the bullish sequence of Minor degree that began last March 09th, when the price pierced the parity level, dropping to 0.99906.

Once the price found fresh buyers, the Oceanic cross climbed in five internal movements of Minute degree, identified in black, until 1.10438, where the cross completed its first wave in green. After this completion, AUDNZD dropped in a complex corrective formation identified as a double-three pattern, which found support at 1.04181 on December 01st. From there, it bounced up to the current levels. 

On the other hand, the breakout of the short-term descending trendline that connects the end of wave ((x)), in black, with the end of wave (b), in blue, suggests the end of the second wave of Minor degree.

Short-term Technical Outlook

The intraday view unfolded in the next 2-hour chart shows the rally that remains in progress since December 01st when the cross found fresh buyers at 1.04181 suggesting further upsides in the following trading sessions.

The previous chart shows the wave (iii) movement of the Minuette degree labeled in blue, which currently looks consolidating its internal structure in a potential running triangle pattern. 

According to the Elliott Wave theory, practically all running triangle patterns tend to be confused with ending diagonals driving retail traders to open trades in the opposite direction to the current trend instead of considering the pattern as a continuation of the trend. Therefore under this scenario, our main bias remains on the bullish side. In this regard, this triangular pattern makes us think that the Oceanic cross might continue extending its movement until the potential target zone between 1.0758 and 1.0816, where the price could complete its third wave, in blue.

In summary, the AUDNZD cross completed its second wave of Minor degree subdivided in a descending three-wave sequence calling for a new upward movement in favor of the first rally, which should follow a five-wave sequence. In this context, the internal structure shows the progress in the third wave of an impulsive wave, which looks consolidating in a running triangle pattern. The potential target of the current rally is located between 1.0758 and 1.0816. On the other hand, the bullish scenario’s invalidation level is set at 1.04181, corresponding to the origin of the current upward sequence.

Categories
Forex Signals

Gold Trade Choppy – Can Upward Channel Underpin? 

During Friday’s Asian trading session, the yellow metal prices failed to extend their overnight winning streak. They edged lower around the $1,880 level mainly due to the upbeat market sentiment, which tends to undermine the yellow-metal prices as investors continuing a retreat from the safe-haven asset after progress in U.S. stimulus measures and Brexit talks. Elsewhere, the reason behind the risk-on market sentiment could also be associated with the expectations for global economic recovery on potential coronavirus vaccines. 

During Friday’s Asian trading session, the yellow metal prices failed to extend their overnight winning streak. They edged lower around the $1,880 level mainly due to the upbeat market sentiment, which tends to undermine the yellow-metal prices as investors continuing a retreat from the safe-haven asset after progress in U.S. stimulus measures and Brexit talks. Elsewhere, the reason behind the risk-on market sentiment could also be associated with the expectations for global economic recovery on potential coronavirus vaccines. 

During Friday’s Asian trading session, the yellow metal prices failed to extend their overnight winning streak. They edged lower around the $1,880 level mainly due to the upbeat market sentiment, which tends to undermine the yellow-metal prices as investors continuing a retreat from the safe-haven asset after progress in U.S. stimulus measures and Brexit talks. Elsewhere, the reason behind the risk-on market sentiment could also be associated with the expectations for global economic recovery on potential coronavirus vaccines. 

In contrast to this, the widespread rise in the COVID-19 cases from the U.K., U.S., and Europe keeps challenging the market risk-on mood, helping the bullion prices limit their deeper losses. Apart from this, the US-China long-lasting tussle is also questioning the market upside momentum, which also caps further downside for the gold. Besides this, the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness has also played its major role in supporting the gold prices as the price of gold is inversely related to the price of the U.S. dollar. The yellow metal is currently trading at 1,883.14 and consolidating in the range between 1,878.60 – 1,886.06.

The news about vaccine rollouts was supporting the market trading sentiment. In the meantime, the progress on both Brexit trade talks and the latest U.S. stimulus measures also boosted the market trading sentiment, which tends to undermine the safe-haven metal prices. As per the latest report, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said she hopes to receive the final legislative text on the deal later on Thursday. Whereas, President Donald Trump said by a tweet that stimulus talks were looking good. However, the lawmakers are now confident to approve the stimulus before the year-end. Additionally, the market trading sentiment was supported by the on-going hopes of the coronavirus vaccine. Thus the positive tone surrounding the market trading sentiment was seen as one of the key factors that kept the gold prices under pressure. 

At the USD front, the broad-based U.S. dollar failed to stop its long bearish bias and dropped towards its worst week in a month as demand for the safe-haven assets declined amid progress toward agreeing U.S. fiscal stimulus. It is worth mentioning that the U.S. dollar was down 1.2% for the week so far and has dropped by 12.7% from a 3-year peak in March, falling to 89.862, just above a 2-and-a-half-year low seen on the previous day. Besides, the U.S. dollar losses could also be associated with Powell’s dovish comments on inflation. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s promised to keep interest rates low until an economic recovery is secure. However, the U.S. dollar losses helped the yellow-metal prices limit its deeper losses as the price of gold is inversely related to the U.S. dollar price.

In contrast to this, the growing worries over the resurgence of the coronavirus pandemic have been destroying the hopes of the global economic recovery, which keeps challenging the market trading sentiment and help the yellow-metal prices to limit their deeper losses. On the other hand, the long-lasting tussle between the United States and China remains on the cards as the U.S. continuously imposing sanctions on Beijing. This, in turn, added further questions around the market trading sentiment and became the key factor that kept the lid on any additional losses in the safe-haven metal prices.

Looking ahead, the market traders will keep their eyes on U.K. Retail Sales m/m, which are scheduled for publicity later in the day. Meanwhile, the German PPI m/m data will also be key to watch. Apart from this, the updates surrounding the Brexit, virus, and U.S. stimulus package will not lose their importance. 



Daily Support and Resistance

S1 1807.17

S2 1827.65

S3 1840.79

Pivot Point 1848.13

R1 1861.27

R2 1868.61

R3 1889.09

The yellow metal gold is trading in between a tight range of 1,884 – 1,880 mark. Gold retraced downward to complete 38.2% Fibonacci level of 1,876. On the daily timeframe, gold has formed an upward channel supporting gold around 1,874 level along with a resistance level of 1,894 and 1,910 level. The 50 periods EMA holds around 1,864, suggesting an upward trend in gold; however, we are not opening a buying trade yet as the MACD forms histograms below 0, supporting a selling trend. Let’s consider taking a buying trade over the 1,874 level today. Good luck! 

 

Categories
Forex Signals

USD/CAD Faces Double Top Resistance – A Trade Plan to Follow!  

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.27217 after placing a high of 1.27504 and a low of 1.26884. The currency pair USD/CAD dropped on Thursday amid the rising crude oil prices and the US dollar weakness. The USD/CAD pair came back to declining momentum after reversing from Wednesday’s high above 1.2790. The Canadian dollar benefited from a weaker US dollar and rising crude oil prices on Thursday that dragged the currency pair USD/CAD on the downside. On Thursday, the US dollar was weak across the board amid the combination of rising hopes for US stimulus, a rising number of coronavirus cases, increased bond purchases by Fed, and the disappointing jobs report from the US labor department.

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.27217 after placing a high of 1.27504 and a low of 1.26884. The currency pair USD/CAD dropped on Thursday amid the rising crude oil prices and the US dollar weakness. The USD/CAD pair came back to declining momentum after reversing from Wednesday’s high above 1.2790. The Canadian dollar benefited from a weaker US dollar and rising crude oil prices on Thursday that dragged the currency pair USD/CAD on the downside. On Thursday, the US dollar was weak across the board amid the combination of rising hopes for US stimulus, a rising number of coronavirus cases, increased bond purchases by Fed, and the disappointing jobs report from the US labor department.

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.27217 after placing a high of 1.27504 and a low of 1.26884. The currency pair USD/CAD dropped on Thursday amid the rising crude oil prices and the US dollar weakness. The USD/CAD pair came back to declining momentum after reversing from Wednesday’s high above 1.2790. The Canadian dollar benefited from a weaker US dollar and rising crude oil prices on Thursday that dragged the currency pair USD/CAD on the downside. On Thursday, the US dollar was weak across the board amid the combination of rising hopes for US stimulus, a rising number of coronavirus cases, increased bond purchases by Fed, and the disappointing jobs report from the US labor department.

The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change in November came in as 40.8K and supported the Canadian dollar that resulted in the declining USD/CAD prices on Thursday. From the US side, at 18:29 GMT, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index in December dropped to 11.1 against the expected 20.1 and weighed on the US dollar and added further losses in the USD/CAD pair. At 18:30 GMT, the Unemployment Claims from last week advanced to 885K against the expected 817K and weighed on the US dollar, and supported the USD/CAD pair’s downside momentum. For November, the Building Permits advanced to 1.64M against the expected 1.55M and supported the US dollar, and capped further downside in the USD/CAD pair. The Housing Starts in November remained flat as expected 1.55M.

Meanwhile, the greenback was weak across the board as the total number of coronavirus cases surpassed about 17M in the US and weighed on the local currency. The rising hopes for the US stimulus also added in the US dollar pressure as the Democrats and Republicans were moving closer to reach a deal by the end of this week. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve’s latest decision to increase its bond purchases to support the economy through the second wave of the pandemic also added pressure on the US dollar and dragged the USD/CAD prices on the downside.

Furthermore, the WTI crude oil prices also increased on Thursday and reached $48.58 per barrel, supporting the commodity-linked currency Loonie. The strong Loonie then ultimately added further losses in the USD/CAD pair.


Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.2694 1.2790

1.2646 1.2838

1.2597 1.2886

Pivot Point: 1.2742

The USD/CAD pair’s technical side is extending double top resistance at 1.2766 area, and bullish crossover of this can lead USD/CAD price further higher until the next resistance level of 1.2789 level. On the lower side, the support holds around 1.2740 and 1.2709 level. The 50 periods EMA is supporting buying trend. Thus it may extend upward movement until 1.2790 level upon the breakout of 1.2766 support. Overall, the market is lacking volatility as we are heading towards the holiday session. Let’s consider staying bullish over 1.2766 resistance and selling below the 1.2740 support level. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

AUD/USD Ascending Triangle Pattern Support – Buying Setup Looms! 

The AUD/USD closed at 0.76263 after placing a high of 0.76393 and a low of 0.75668. The AUD/USD rose above the 0.76300 level on Thursday to its highest level since June 2018 amid the broad-based weakness of the US dollar and the rising risk sentiment in the market. The risk-sensitive Aussie benefited from the market’s broadly positive risk appetite that raised the Wall streets’ main indexes added in the gains of AUD/USD pair. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices hit an all-time high on Thursday and added in the risk sentiment that gave strength to risk perceived Aussie.

The AUD/USD closed at 0.76263 after placing a high of 0.76393 and a low of 0.75668. The AUD/USD rose above the 0.76300 level on Thursday to its highest level since June 2018 amid the broad-based weakness of the US dollar and the rising risk sentiment in the market. The risk-sensitive Aussie benefited from the market’s broadly positive risk appetite that raised the Wall streets’ main indexes added in the gains of AUD/USD pair. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices hit an all-time high on Thursday and added in the risk sentiment that gave strength to risk perceived Aussie.

The AUD/USD closed at 0.76263 after placing a high of 0.76393 and a low of 0.75668. The AUD/USD rose above the 0.76300 level on Thursday to its highest level since June 2018 amid the broad-based weakness of the US dollar and the rising risk sentiment in the market. The risk-sensitive Aussie benefited from the market’s broadly positive risk appetite that raised the Wall streets’ main indexes added in the gains of AUD/USD pair. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices hit an all-time high on Thursday and added in the risk sentiment that gave strength to risk perceived Aussie.

The dovish comments from Chairman of Federal Reserve Jerome Powell reassured market participants that the Fed’s ultra-accommodative monetary policy stance was not going anywhere anytime soon. This news also added in the risk sentiment, supported the risk-sensitive Australian dollar, and pushed the AUD/USD pair higher.

Furthermore, the UK and EU prospects reaching a deal before the end of the year as the EU parliament had given the deadline to get an agreement before 20th December also increased and supported the risk perceived Aussie and added in the upward trend of the AUD/USD pair.

On the data front, at 05:30 GMT, the Employment Change in November raised to 90.0K against the expected 40.9K and supported Aussie and added in the gains of AUD/USD pair. In November, the Unemployment Rate also decreased to 6.8% against the forecasted 7.0% and supported the Australian dollar and supported the upward momentum of the AUD/USD pair.

From the US side, at 18:29 GMT, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index in December fell to 11.1 against the projected 20.1 and weighed on the US dollar and added AUD/USD pair gains. At 18:30 GMT, the Unemployment Claims from last week raised to 885K against the estimated 817K and weighed on the US dollar and supported the AUD/USD pair’s an upward trend. For November, the Building Permits surged to 1.64M against the forecasted 1.55M and supported the US dollar that capped further gains in AUD/USD pair. The Housing Starts in November remained flat as anticipated 1.55M.

The greenback was weak across the board on Thursday as the US Dollar Index (DXY) fell to its lowest since April 2018, below 90 levels to 89.7. The US dollar weakness was due to many factors, including the rising prospects of reaching a deal between Democrats and Republicans over the second round of the US stimulus bill. 

The US dollar was also weak because of the rising number of coronavirus cases in many US states despite the vaccine rollout and lockdown. The reports suggested that the total number of coronavirus cases in the US reached 17M and made the country the hardest-hit country in the world by the pandemic. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve’s latest decision to extend its bond purchases program also added pressure on the greenback that ultimately affected the movement of the AUD/USD pair. All these factors combined and weighed on the US dollar on Thursday that added strength in the currency pair AUD/USD pair.


Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

0.7550 0.7592

0.7542 0.7606

0.7509 0.7633

Pivot point: 0.7565

On the technical front, the AUD/USD is trading slightly bullish at 0.7590, facing immediate resistance at the 0.7640 level. Bullish crossover of this level can extend upward trend until the next target level of 0.7680. However, failure to break above the 0.7680 level can extend selling moves until the support area of the 0.7580 AND 0.7545 level. The 50 periods EMA is suggesting a buying trend, but the MACD is suggesting a buying scenario. Thus, we should look for buying trades over the 0.7580 level. Good luck!