It’s going to be a busy day from the news front, as the market will be focusing on the German Factory Orders m/m, ECB Economic Bulletin, Retail Sales, and CPI figures from the Eurozone economy that can drive price action in the Euro pairs during the UK session. On the other hand, the dollar’s movement can be influenced by Unemployment Claims and ISM Services PMI scheduled to be released during the US session.
Economic Events to Watch Today
EUR/USD – Daily Analysis
The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.23259 after placing a high of 1.23492 and a low of 1.22653. The depressed US dollar after the signs of a Democratic win in the US Senate runoff elections and the rebounded risk-on market sentiment helped EUR/USD pair to post gains on Wednesday.
The markets anticipated a Democratic win in the US Senate election in Georgia that would evacuate the track for a bigger fiscal stimulus package; the greenback came under pressure. Democrats won one US Senate race in Georgia and led in another on Wednesday, moving closer to a sweep in a Deep South state. The result will be announced on late Wednesday, and winning both seats by Democrats will give Congress control to power the President-elect Joe Biden’s policy goals.
Biden has said that he wanted two fiscal stimulus packages in 2021 to support his economy through the pandemic. His first order is expected to increase the stimulus paychecks amount to $2000 rejected by Republicans. These hopes kept the US dollar under pressure and supported the upward momentum in the EUR//USD pair.
On the data front, at 10:00 GMT, the German Prelim CPI for December dropped to 0.5% against the expected 0.6% and weighed on Euro and capped further upside in EUR/USD pair. At 12:45 GMT, the French Prelim CPI for December also dropped to 0.2% against the forecasted 0.4% and weighed on Euro. At 13:15 GMT, the Spanish Services PMI for December raised to 48.0 against the expected 44.5 and supported the single currency Euro and added further EUR/USD pair gains. At 13:45 GMT, the Italian Services PMI for December declined to 39.7 against the estimated 45.0 and weighed on the single currency Euro.
At 13:50 GMT, the French Final Services PMI came in line with the expectations of 49.1. At 13:55 GMT, the German Final Services PMI dropped to 47.0 against the anticipated 47.7 and weighed on Euro and capped further upside in EUR/USD pair. At 14:00 GMT, the Final Services PMI from Europe also fell to 46.4 against the forecasted 47.4 and weighed on Euro. At 15:00 GMT, the PPI for November from the Euro area raised to 0.4% against the expected 0.2% and supported Euro and gave strength to the EUR/USD pair’s rising prices.
From the US side, at 18:15 GMT, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change for December declined to -123K against the forecasted 60K and weighed on the US dollar that gave further gains to EUR/USD pair. At 19:45 GMT, the Final Services PMI for December also declined to 54.8 against the forecasted 55.2 and weighed on the US dollar and helped EUR/USD to rise further. At 20:00 GMT, the Factory Orders for November rose to 1.0% against the forecasted 0.7%, supported the US dollar, and capped further gains in EUR/USD pair.
Meanwhile, the market’s risk sentiment was improved after the resurgence in global manufacturing as shown in various surveys this week despite the rising coronavirus cases, which also gave strength to the risk perceived EUR/USD pair on Wednesday.
Daily Technical Levels
Pivot point: 1.2282
EUR/USD– Trading Tip
The EUR/USD continues trading with a bullish bias at 1.2367, facing resistance at the 1.2350 level. On the lower side, the support continues to hold around the 1.2278 level. Simultaneously, the bullish breakout of the 1.2350 resistance level can extend buying until the 1.2435 level. The leading indicators such as RSI and MACD support selling, but the EUR/USD 50 periods EMA is likely to support at 1.2289.
GBP/USD – Daily Analysis
The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.36075 after placing a high of 1.36711 and a low of 1.35380. The currency pair came under pressure on Wednesday amid the rising number of coronavirus cases in the UK, depressing comments from Andrew Bailey, and the poor macroeconomic data from Great Britain.
The UK has more new coronavirus cases per capita than any other major country globally as the number of daily cases topped 60,000 for the first time this week. The latest data suggested that around one in 50 people in the UK currently have the virus. Only the US has a per capita infection rate nearly equivalent to the UK of any country with more than 1 million cases.
Since December 06, the average number of new daily cases has risen from around 15,000 to above 55,000. PM Boris Johnson said on Tuesday that about 1.3 M people have so far received a coronavirus vaccination. The rising number of coronavirus made the UK the worst-hit country in Europe in terms of cumulative cases and weighed on its local currency British Pound, which ultimately added weight to the GBP/USD pair.
Meanwhile, on Wednesday, the Governor of Bank of England Andrew Bailey risked reigniting the politically charged debate over Brexit by predicting that the trade deal struck with the European Union could end up costing the UK economy the equivalent of more than 80 billion pounds.
During his first public comments since Britain completed its withdrawal from the bloc on December 31, Bailey endorsed warnings from the Office for Budget Responsibility, the fiscal watchdog, that gross domestic product will be as much as 4% lower in the long term than it would be had the country remained in the EU.
These comments from the Bank of England governor right after the Brexit completion raised fears and added weight on Sterling that eventually dragged the GBP/USD currency pair on the downside. On the data front, at 14:30 GMT, the Final Services PMI from Great Britain for December dropped to 49.4 against the expected 499 and weighed on British Pound and added more losses on the currency pair GBP/USD.
From the US side, at 18:15 GMT, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change for December fell to -123K against the anticipated 60K and weighed on the US dollar and capped further losses in GBP/USD pair. At 19:45 GMT, the Final Services PMI for December also fell to 54.8 against the anticipated 55.2 and weighed on the US dollar. At 20:00 GMT, the Factory Orders for November surged to 1.0% against the anticipated 0.7% and supported the US dollar that added further GBP/USD pair losses.
However, the GBP/USD pair’s losses were somewhat recovered in the late trading session over the positive sentiment that was mostly driven by the rising expectation that the Democrats will win both seats in Georgia’s Senate runoff. A clean sweep for the Democrats would hand charge of both houses of Congress to the incoming administration that would pave the way for Joe Biden to push through more stimulus. This left the US dollar under pressure and supported the GBP/USD pair in late trading hours.
Daily Technical Levels
Pivot Point: 1.3607
GBP/USD– Trading Tip
The GBP/USD pair continues to consolidate in a narrow trading range of 1.3625 – 1.3556. The Sterling may face immediate resistance at the 1.3625 level, and the continuation of an upward trend can lead the Cable towards the 1.3700 resistance level. On the lower side, the breakout of 1.3545 support can extend the selling trend until the 1.3468 level.
USD/JPY – Daily Analysis
The USD/JPY pair was closed at 103.049 after placing a high of 103.442 and a low of 102.590. The higher US yields and the market’s risk appetite boosted the USD/JPY prices on Wednesday. Since March, the currency pair bounced from the lowest levels, near 102.50, and peaked at 103.43, a one-week high.
The main driver of the pair USD/JPY remained the US yields followed by the elections to decide the US Senate’s composition. The 10-year yield reached 1.05%, its highest since March, and supported the US dollar that ultimately pushed the USD/JPY pair higher on board. The market sentiment was not affected by the weaker than expected US economic data as the Dow Jones was at record highs, up by 1.55%, and the NASDAQ gained 0.51%.
Markets were pricing the prospects of a Democratic win in the US Senate runoff elections in Georgia. The Democrats already have the House of Representatives, aka lower chamber of Congress, in their control. Winning the Senate elections will also give them control over the upper chamber that means they will have a complete majority in the US legislative assembly and the power to push forward their agenda.
The term of Joe Biden will begin on January 20. He has hinted that he wanted at least two stimulus packages in 2021 to overcome the damage caused and expected to continue from the coronavirus pandemic. Markets were also pricing their bets on the prospects of Biden’s first order that is expected to push out $2000 checks to most Americans that had been strictly opposed by the Republicans.
On the data front, at 10:00 GMT, the Consumer Confidence from Japan for December dropped to 31.8against the anticipated 32.6 and weighed on the Japanese Yen that added more gains in the USD/JPY pair.
From the US side, at 18:15 GMT, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change for December decreased to -123K against the projected 60K and weighed on the US dollar that capped further gains in the USD/JPY pair. At 19:45 GMT, the Final Services PMI for December also decreased to 54.8 against the projected 55.2 and weighed on the US dollar that limited additional USD/JPY pair gains. At 20:00 GMT, the Factory Orders for November increased to 1.0% against the projected 0.7% and supported the US dollar that added further gains in the USD/JPY pair.
Furthermore, some of the USD/JPY pair’s gains were lost in late trading hours of Wednesday as the rising number of coronavirus cases kept the global economic recovery under pressure and safe-haven demand intact. On Wednesday, Japan’s number of coronavirus cases reached its highest level as the government faced mounting pressure from health experts to impose a strict state of emergency for Tokyo.
In Portugal, about 10,027 new cases on Wednesday were reported, which was the highest since the pandemic started. Ontario reported 3266 new coronavirus cases that brought the total number of coronavirus in the region to 200,626. All these fears kept the safe-haven Japanese yen supportive that ultimately weighed on the USD/JPY pair and lost most of its gains for the day on Wednesday.
Daily Technical Levels
Pivot Point: 102.84
USD/JPY – Trading Tips
The USD/JPY bounced off to violate the resistance level of 102.960 level, and now it’s working as a support for the USD/JPY pair. The pair may find resistance at the 103.430 level. Overall, the bullish bias seems strong as the USD/JPY pair has crossed over 50 EMA at the 103.063 level. Taking a look at the 2-hour timeframe, the USD/JPY has closed a bullish engulfing candle over 102.962 level that can drive the further bullish trend in the USD/JPY pair. Let’s consider taking a buy trade over the 102.960 level today. Good luck!