Home Forex Technical Analysis Forex Elliott Wave GBPUSD Ending Diagonal Completion a Warning Sign for a Trend Reversal?

GBPUSD Ending Diagonal Completion a Warning Sign for a Trend Reversal?

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In our last GBPUSD analysis, we discussed its upward advance in an incomplete ending diagonal pattern. We said that the terminal Elliott wave formation progressed in its fifth wave of Minuette degree identified in blue that belongs to a wave ((c)) of Minute degree labeled in black. Likewise, the wave ((c)) corresponds to the third internal segment of the wave B of Minor degree identified in green. 

Technical Overview

The big picture unveiled the sideways movement in an incomplete corrective formation, which could correspond to an expanding flat pattern. In this regard, after the completion of wave B, the Sterling should start developing wave C, which should lead to a decline of this major pair in a five-wave internal sequence.

On the other hand, the following 8-hour chart reveals the market participants’ sentiment unfolded by the 90-day high and low range, which looks advancing in the extreme bullish sentiment zone. 

The previous chart illustrates the bullish failure in the Wednesday trading session, which couldn’t strike the last high of 1.35394. This failure added to the breakdown of the previous upward trendline plotted in green leads us to expect further declines in the coming trading sessions, likely to the ascending primary trend-line identified in blue.

Short-term Technical Outlook

The intraday Elliott wave view for the GBPUSD pair displayed by the following 2-hour chart exposes the breakdown of the ending diagonal pattern formed on December 07th, confirming the completion of the terminal formation unveiled in the wave ((c)) identified in black. 

Once the Pound found the intraday support at 1.32238, the price action began to bounce in an internal corrective rally subdivided in a three-wave sequence corresponding to wave ((ii)) in black, founding resistance at 1.34779 on the Wednesday trading session.

In this regard, the breakdown of the intraday trend-line that connects the waves ((i)) and (b) should confirm the downward progress of its wave ((iii)) in black, which according to the Elliott wave theory, should be the largest wave of the downward sequence.

The third wave in black could find support in the demand zone between 1.31296 and 1.31064. If the price action continues deteriorating, the Cable could drop toward the next demand zone between 1.29843 and 1.29144.

Summarizing

After the GBPUSD pair made a breakdown of its ending diagonal pattern, is currently moving in a corrective rally corresponding to wave ((ii)), which should give way to a new decline corresponding to the third wave of Minute degree. According to the textbook, this movement should be the largest decline of the current downward sequence and could find support in the demand zone between 1.31296 and 1.31064. Finally, the invalidation level of the current bearish scenario can be found at 1.35394.

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