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Forex Market Analysis

NZDCAD Heavy Drops driven by a Sharp Shift in Market Sentiment

In the last trading week, the NZDCAD cross  90-Day market sentiment declined from the extreme bullish to the bullish sentiment zone. The move was helped by the Canadian unemployment rate figures, which declined to 8.5% in November, beating the analysts’ expectations of 8.9%. 

Source: TradingEconomics.com

The last unemployment rate reading represents an improvement in the Canadian labor market, which showed a slight decline to 8.9% in October. On the other hand, during the current year, the data gathered from Statistics Canada stated that the record unemployment high was Mays figure of 13.7%, its highest level in more than four decades.

Technical Overview

The following 8-hour chart illustrates the market participants’ sentiment unfolded in the 90-day high and low range, revealing an aggressive decline in the Friday 04th trading session where the cross dropped over 1.7%. 

In this context, the downgrade on the market sentiment leads us to expect a corrective movement. This potential drop could find support in the neutral zone of 0.88698. Likewise, the descending of the NZDCAD EMA(60) to Close index below the zero-line drives us to anticipate a consolidation during the coming trading sessions before continuing a further decline.

Technical Outlook

The NZDCAD cross in its 8-hourly chart illustrates the mid-term uptrend that began on March 18th once the price confirmed its bottom of 0.80849. The primary trend plotted in blue reveals that the bull market remains intact.

Likewise, the breakdown observed in the last ascending secondary trend identified in green reveals a short-term correction with three potential key support levels: 0.89469, 0.88583, and 0.87489. Each of these levels shows a zone where the price action developed a polarization movement.

The following 2-hour chart shows an impulsive movement, which began on October 20th when the price found support at 0.86270. After completing its third wave of Minuette degree, in blue, the NZDCAD cross found resistance on December 03rd at 0.91630, where it started a decline in an incomplete corrective sequence that could correspond to wave (iv), in blue.

In this context, the cross could develop two potential scenarios:

  • The first scenario occurs if the price completes the third wave on 0.91630. In this case, the cross could advance mostly sideways in its wave (iv), in blue. In this scenario, the cross could find support in the demand zone between 0.89723 and 0.89490, where the price could begin to advance in its wave (v) of Minuette degree at least to the 0.9163 level.
  • The second scenario: considers an alternative count and occurs if the NZDCAD cross completes a wave (v), in blue, on 0.91630. If that is the case, it implies the price is currently advancing in a corrective formation of Minuette degree. Thus, the price could create a decline in a three-wave sequence toward the next demand zone between 0.88437 until 0.88234. 

In both scenarios, the invalidation level is found below the origin of wave (i) at 0.86270.

Categories
Forex Signals

NZDCAD Breakout Retest BUY

Flow Assessment

  • Price has created a fresh higher high and the buy swings look strong and aggressive, suggesting bullish order flow

Location Assessment

  • Price has recently broken through and retested a major level at 0.88170, which has acted as a support and resistance for high volatility swings multiple times before
  • Hence, given our bullish bias, it is logical to look for buys at this key area

Momentum Assessment

  • Price retested the key 0.88170 level and showed sharp signs of rejection
  • Due to the high relevance of the level and the bullish bias, this is sufficient for us to take a buy
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Forex Educational Library

Forex.Academy 2018-2019 Outlook – CAD Group


Summary


Forex Daily News: In this post, we analyse the Canadian Dollar group against their main currencies. As a summary, the second half of the year and 2019, we foresee a corrective movement in the Canadian currency, which could come supported for a correction in oil prices to, then, give way to a new rally. After this correction, our central vision for the Canadian Dollar is a new appreciation scenario.

Additionally, we observe that it is likely that GBP and EUR would show the best performance against the CAD; on the opposite side, the Japanese currency and the Swiss Franc could have the worst performance against the Canadian Dollar.


USDCAD

The USDCAD is developing a complex corrective structure of a second bullish impulsive wave. The corrective structure has a bearish bias, which could find support in the area between 1.29607 to 1.28371. The key level to watch out is 1.2884, this level should convert on a critical pivot level (HHL).


EURCAD

EURCAD cross in the short-term has a bearish bias, probably could see new lows in 1.50 zone. In the mid-term, the cross moves sideways as a complex corrective. In the long-term, we foresee that the EURCAD could find fresh lows in the area between 1.47822 to 1.45662, from where the cross could start a new rally as a fifth bullish wave. Invalidation level is at 1.4442.


GBPCAD

Probably the GBPCAD cross shows the clearest movement of the CAD Group. The price is moving in a bearish A-B-C sequence, which could find support at 1.6410 level, from where the price could create a new connector and then initiate a rally. The new bullish sequence has a target the area between 1.8533 and 1.9266. Invalidation level is at 1.5837.


CADJPY

The CADJPY cross has been commented in a previous analysis, and we maintain the main idea which consists in to seek only long positions with a long-term profit target in the area between 94.69 and 95.30. Is probably that the cross makes a retrace to the area between 85.45 to 83.73 from where we could find new opportunities to incorporate us into the trend. Invalidation level is located at 82.17.


CADCHF

In the CADCHF cross, the lemma is “Buy the Dips” or “Watch the Breakout.” CADCHF is running sideways in an upper degree consolidation structure. The key level to control is 0.7636, after the breakout of this level, we expect more upsides to the zone between 0.7992 and 0.8245. In case that the price makes a false breakdown to the area between 0.7394 and 0.7289, it could be an attractive opportunity to look for the long side. Invalidation level is at 0.7124.


NZDCAD

In the long-term, NZDCAD is running sideways and making lower highs. The long-term pivot level is at 0.8640. For this cross, we expect only short positions; if the price makes a bullish move, the potential movement is limited to the area between 0.9253 to 0.9461. The long-term target area is between 0.8401 to 0.8098.


AUDCAD

Probably the AUDCAD cross is the less attractive to trade. As we can see in the weekly chart, it is running sideways since the second half of 2013. The price is moving inside a bearish cycle, which could find support in the “long-term pivot level” at 0.8919, from where AUDCAD could start to bounce. The invalidation level for the bearish cycle is at 1.0397.



Forex Daily News: Finally, as a technical note, considering that the AUDCAD is mostly bearish, by correlation, the CAD should perform better than the AUD for the period foreseen.