Categories
Forex Trade Types

Introduction to Forex Order Types

Prior to jumping into the world of Forex, you’ll want to take some time to learn about the various order types. Below, you’ll find information on the key types of orders that all traders will see in their trading platforms.

Market Orders

A market order is the most basic order type and is usually the first type of order that comes to mind. This order is executed at the best price that is available at the time that the order is received.

Limit Order

A limit order is placed to buy or sell at a specified price or at a price that is better than the specified price. A buy limit order is executed at the specified price or lower, while a sell limit order is executed at the specified price or higher. This type of order allows traders to be more precise when entering or exiting a trade. However, these orders will not be executed if the specified price is not met. 

Stop Order

Stop orders, or stop-loss orders, are usually used to limit downside risk when trading. A stop order triggers a market order when a predefined rate is reached. There are two types of stop orders:

  • A buy stop order triggers a market order when the offer price is met.
  • A sell stop order triggers a market order when the bid price is met.

Both the buy stop and sell stop orders are triggered at the best available price depending on liquidity. 

Trailing Stop

A trailing stop order is often used in order to limit risk. This order is set a predefined number of pips away from the market’s current price and will automatically trail your position if the market moves in your favor. If the market moves against you by the number of predefined pips, a market order is triggered, and the stop order will be executed at the next rate that is available depending on liquidity. 

Contingent Order

A contingent order actually combines multiple types of orders to execute against a specific trading strategy. These are the most common types:

  • An if/then order is placed as a set of two orders. If the first order is executed, then the second order becomes a separate order that is not associated with the first. If the first order isn’t triggered, then the second order remains dormant. If either order is canceled, then it will cancel the entire order.
  • With an if/then OCO order, the second order becomes an active and unassociated one-cancels-the-other order if the first order is executed. If the first order is never executed, then the second order remains dormant.  
Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, August 26 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Durable Goods Orders In Highlights! 

On the news front, the eyes will remain on the U.S. fundamentals, especially the Durable Goods Orders m/m and Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, which are expected to report negative data and may drive selling bias for the U.S. .dollar.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD closed at 1.18336 after placing a high of 1.18435 and a low of 1.17840. Overall the movement of the EUR/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. The EUR/USD pair gained traction and raised on Tuesday after falling for two consecutive days. The rise in the EUR/USD pair was due to improved risk appetite in the market after the U.S. & China both held the trade talks and confirmed their commitment to trade deal.

Meanwhile, the potential vaccine for coronavirus and the distribution of vaccine doses to worldwide raised optimism and helped risk sentiment that also added further in the gains of riskier asset EUR/USD pair.

The U.S. & China said they were making progress in trade talks despite other tensions, which added further in the optimism. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced that a constructive dialogue between both sides had pushed the trade deal forward.

As in result, the U.S. Treasury yields rose but failed to raise the U.S. dollar as the disappointing release of the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence depressed the U.S. dollar. At 19:00 GMT, the highlighted C.B. Consumer Confidence data fell in August to 84.8 from the anticipated 93.0 and weighed heavily on the U.S. dollar that added gains in the EUR/USD pair.

On the other hand, from the European side, the German Final GDP for the second quarter contracted less than it was expected and supported Euro currency. The forecasted GDP was -10.1% but, in actuality, came in as -9.7% and supported the single currency. The German Ifo Business Climate Index in August exceeded the expectations of 92.2 and came in as 92.6 and supported Euro currency that further added gains in the EUR/USD pair.

Furthermore, the risk sentiment was also supported by the positive news regarding the vaccine and its distribution from the World Health Organization. Investors cheered the COVAX facility initiative that would allow the worldwide equal distribution of vaccine doses in collaboration with the vaccine manufacturers.

WHO said that 172 countries were engaged in talks to participate in the COVAX facility, and nine vaccine candidates have already joined it while nine were under evaluation. It also added that significant producers were under discussion to join the facility. The worldwide equal and fair distribution of vaccines will help recover the economy and bounce back from the pandemic. This raised risk sentiment and pushed the EUR/USD riskier asset in the upward direction on Tuesday. Apart from this, the investors will be watching the speech of Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday at Jackson Hole Symposium to find fresh clues about the U.S. dollar.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.1795 1.1820 1.1857
1.1758 1.1882
1.1733 1.1919

 EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is trading with a bearish bias amid stronger U.S. dollar at 1.1810, holding right above the triple bottom support area of 1.1804 level. Closing of candles above this level can drive bullish correction until 1.1840, while the violation of the 1.1804 level can trigger selling unto 1.1785 level. On the 2 hour chart, the EUR/USD pair has formed an ascending triangle pattern, which also extends resistance at 1.1847. Let’s wait for a bullish or a bearish breakout before placing any major trade in the EUR/USD. 

  


GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

 The GBP/USD closed at 1.31505 after placing a high of 1.31703 and a low of 1.30539. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. After falling for two consecutive days, GBP/USD pair surged and posted gains and recovered almost more than half of the previous two day’s losses on Tuesday amid the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness.

The U.S. dollar was weak as the Consumer Confidence from August declined, and the safe-haven status of greenback suffered because of risk-on market sentiment. The risk appetite increased after the U.S. & China confirmed their commitment towards the phase-one trade deal on Tuesday. Despite ongoing tensions, both sides assured to comply with their promises made in the phase-one trade deal agreement and released some tension from the market.

This raised risk appetite and the risk-sensitive GBP/USD pair gained from this situation. Meanwhile, the potential vaccine development and its distribution in the whole world to fight the pandemic also raised risk sentiment and added in the pair gains.

Whereas on Brexit front, the top Tory and former Brexit Secretary David Davis warned that it was a critical endgame, and the U.K. will soon have to be preparing for talks to collapse. As both sides have earmarked October as a deadline, and the last three weeks will matter more than the first three years of talks.

He added that if Europe continued to follow Barnier’s strategy, then we could end up with a no-deal scenario, and the Europeans will lose a large and very profitable marketplace, namely the United Kingdom. They will lose the most efficient financial market; they will lose access to British fisheries and funding that was agreed under the Withdrawal Agreement. The funding was agreed on the presumption that both sides would get a trade deal, a political promise that the E.U. has failed to keep.

The U.K.’s negotiator David Frost had provided a draft text last week to speed up the talks, but E.U. negotiator Micheal Barnier dismissed it as unrealistic and urged E.U. states to stay cold-blooded. Barnier said that U.K.’s strategy would be to trade fishing access for freedom from E.U. rules at the last minute.

Meanwhile, at an informal meeting, the colleague of Mr. Barnier, Eurasia Group analyst, Mujtaba Rahman, said that the trade-off concerning state aid and fishing rights as possible, but it will take time. He claimed that the prospect of no-deal with the risk of delay at the border and food shortages would be a huge concern for Boris Johnson and his government, pushing him to compromise.

Both sides are reluctant to lose their demands and the time is falling short, it is now unclear whether they would reach an agreement. However, investors are cheering the other risk-related news and ignoring the Brexit progress as it has stalled.

On the data front, at 15:00 GMT, the CBI Realized Sales from Britain declined to -6 from the expected 7 in August and weighed heavily on the local currency that kept the currency pair gains limited. From the U.S., the Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board was declined to 84.8 from the projected 93.0 and the previous 91.7 and weighed heavily on the U.S. dollar as this report was highlighted on Tuesday. The weak U.S. dollar added further in the GBP/USD pair’s gains.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.3079 1.3125 1.3196
1.3008 1.3242
1.2962 1.3313

 GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD has violated the sideways trading range of 1.3120 – 1.3056 level, and bullish breakout of GBP/USD pair is likely to lead the Sterling prices towards the next target 1.3262 level. On the higher side, the next resistance is likely to be found around 1.3262 level. The 50 EMA and the technical indicators such as RSI, MACD, and 50 periods of EMA suggest a bullish bias in the Cable. Let’s consider taking buying trades above 1.3120 level.


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 106.387 after placing a high of 106.575 and a low of 105.870. Overall the movement of the USD/JPY pair remained bullish throughout the day. The USD/JPY pair climbed to a fresh weekly high on Tuesday at 106.57 despite the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness. The rise in currency pair could be attributed to the risk-on market sentiment that weighed on safe-haven Japanese Yen and contributed to the currency pair’s gains.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) was down on Tuesday by 0.33% on 92.98 level, but it could not stop USD/JPY pair to post gains on the day as the risk-on market environment made it difficult for safe-haven Japanese Yen to find demand in the market.

On the data front, at 10:00 GMT, the core Consumer Price Index for the year from Bank of Japan dropped to 0.0% in August from the anticipated 0.1% and weighed on Japanese Yen and added further in USD/JPY pair’s gains.

On the U.S. side, the Housing Price Index rose to 0.9% in June from the anticipated o.3% and supported the U.S. dollar. At 18:59 GMT, the Richmond Manufacturing Index also rose to 18 points from 10 in the forecast and supported the U.S. dollar. At 19:00 GMT, the C.B. Consumer Confidence declined to 84.8 from the projected 93.0 and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The New Home Sales increased to 901K from the expected 787K and supported the U.S. dollar.

Most of the economic data from the U.S. came in favor of the U.S. dollar on Tuesday and helped USD/JPY gain traction. Meanwhile, the improving market risk sentiment played an important role in increasing the USD/JPY currency pair prices. The risk appetite was raised in the market after the WHO released an initiative of equal and fair distribution of vaccine to countries worldwide along with the positive statement from both the U.S. & China about the trade deal.

According to the World Health Organization, 172 countries and multiple candidate vaccines were involved in talks to make the global access of vaccines easy and fair by participating in the COVAX facility. COVAX facility is an initiative to provide safe & effective vaccines after getting license and approval to countries around the world by working with vaccine manufacturers. For now, nine candidate vaccines have entered the initiative, and further nine are under evaluation while the major producers are under conversation to join the COVAX facility.

This raised hopes for the equal and easy distribution of vaccine doses not only in a few major countries but to each country worldwide. The fact that it will help recovery boosts the equity market, and hence, safe-haven Japanese Yen came under heavy selling pressure and raised USD/JPY pair.

Meanwhile, the video conference that was canceled by President Donald Trump on August 15 was held on Tuesday between U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He. Both sides reaffirmed their commitment toward the phase-one trade deal even China has been lagging of the target of purchasing U.S. farm goods.

However, in the lingering US-china tensions, a positive statement from both sides gave a heavy selling pressure on safe-haven appeal and raised the risk sentiment helping USD/JPY pair to extend its daily gains.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
105.9500 106.2700 106.6800
105.5500 106.9900
105.2300 107.4000

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading within an upward channel, which is supporting the pair at 106.230. On the higher side, the USD/JPY may find an immediate resistance at 106.566 and 107.078. On the 2 hour chart, the 50 periods EMA is extending the buying trend in the USD/JPY pair. At the same time, the MACD and RSI are contradicting as the MACD suggests selling while the RSI is holding in a buying zone. The USD/JPY may trade bullish over 106.200 to target 107.084. Good luck! 

 

Categories
Forex Trade Types

Daily Time Frame Swing Trading Specifics

According to one theory and testing results done by professional traders, the daily chart is the best time frame to trade forex. We intend to try to make as much money as we can for the shortest period of time. Some like to trade not more than 20 minutes a day because they believe in prosperity and freedom. We are choosing to have a well-balanced life and trading carrier alongside other segments of life. You should not strive to be like other people, don’t believe in progress that is supported by any kind of chemical stimulants or long over-caffeinating marathon trade sessions. A group of traders’ long experience and testing out different time frames has concluded that everything works better and much more accurate on the daily time frame. The news events matter a lot less to us and the daily frame allows us to have a bigger perspective of the market. We are choosing not to be slaves to the market. Most importantly, trading forex like this we’re simply making the highest returns possible.

How valuable is our own time? According to the daily timeframe method, we trade the daily chart at 1:40 PM Pacific standard time which is 20 minutes before the close of the daily candle. Making trades at this time is surely not feasible for everyone. For most people in the US who have access to a computer and don’t have jobs that run over this time could be easy to do trades. It is easy typically for people in Europe because it’s right about when people usually go to bed. In places like Australia and Japan, it’s pretty bright and early in the morning so it could be a certain routine to do. In India, people would be sleeping at this time far more often. For those people, it might be very difficult to trade at that time. Depends on the part of the globe, it could be irritating if somebody already has a promising system that works but he can’t endure trading because he can’t really find the best time frame for him. We shouldn’t despair.

We all have the option to approach however we want. There is just going to be times when somebody cannot trade at this 1:40 PM Pacific time. What some of you could try is to be as closest as you can to this Pacific time. The goal should be to gather as much as we possibly can data on that daily candle if we want to reach our indicators properly. After 1:40 PM Pacific, we should have enough data to do trades because we will have almost completed the daily candle to work with. We strongly advise aiming for this strategy. Just to remember that the hour that follows the close of the daily candle is a terrible hour to trade because spreads shoot way up, so we should avoid that hour. But as soon as the Asian session opens right around 3 PM Pacific time the spreads typically go back down to normal. We don’t want to pay attention to that little tinny candle that is just starting and if we are reading our indicators we need to go back to the previous candle. We want to see a candle closed because that’s the way to collect all the data we need. What should we do is read all of our indicators one candle back.

Going further, there is going to be times whereby the time we get a chance to start our trading that price is going to have gotten better or worse than it was back when that daily candle had closed. For example, if we are aiming a long set up in GBP/USD and the candle has closed. It’s two hours later and we’re getting ready to make trades. If the price has gone any down, that is good for us. We could be into the discount and we might get in that trade with confidence. This part is easy. However, let’s say that the GBP/USD since the close of the daily candle has gone 20 pips to the long side. Now we’ll be getting it at 20 pips worse than we would off if we were able to trade a couple of hours earlier when that candle was closing. Here we might be stuck with a bad and a good decision.

Back when the daily candle had closed and triggered all of our indicators and say: ‘OK, we need to go long’. That was our system telling us that we have the ideal price for us to be going long. It is there to tell us the best possible moment to go long or short on any given currency pair. If our system is telling us to go long and the price has already gone 20 pips, we are practically no longer getting the best of it. Best of it was 20 pips ago. The value we once had, has now gone. And so just simply moving straight away and taking one of these trades anyway we might call the fear of missing the trade. Here is important to develop a discipline of not take trades like that anymore. We have one more example, let’s say that the ATR of GBP/USD is 80 pips and is also our take profit point if we would have taken that trade right where the candle was closed, our profit would be 80 pips away. But now technically it is 100 pips away. The price might get to the 80 but it might not get to the 100.

So what happened? We turned a winning trade into a possible non-winning trade. In the end, math could not be in our favor so we might lose more than we win. Turning winning trades into non-winning trades can be a big disadvantage that we need to learn to avoid. But if we understand the concept of a long game and if we are disciplined, we might understand the value we are losing every time we act adventurous. One more approach that we might consider should be to use market orders, it means when we like some price where it stands we are going to tell our market broker to put us in. We recommend market orders as an option to trade if you are not into price levels methods, you have nothing to wait for, just pull the trigger and wait for tomorrow. One more thing that we shouldn’t forget is to set our limit order back to where the price was when that candle closed, in the hopes that price will come back to that level and trigger the order and get us in at the price we were supposed to get in the first place.

If we trade this way we could potentially get all our value back. If the price does not hit our limit order by the same time the next day we should get rid of it or we can set it to cancel by itself on some platforms using the GTD order. This might be a little advanced way around for some people but it’s worth trying. What we want to develop here is the discipline of not taking some trades that are 20,30 or more pips worse than it should have been. We need to build our systems thoroughly and we need to let them work for us. According to professional traders, other people who are in the position to trade 5 or 6 hours before 1:40 Pacific time just don’t have enough data to work with and make decisions. Because of this you guys should make an effort and try to trade in a more friendly time frame. Whichever route you chose to take we wish you all the best. Good things are bound to happen.

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, August 25 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Consumer Confidence in Focus! 

On the news front, the economic calendar is a bit busy today, and it may offer a medium impact on economic events from the U.S. and Eurozone. During the European session, the focus will remain on the German Final GDP q/q and German Ifo Business Climate data, while the U.S. C.B. Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales from the U.S. will be released during the New York session today. The dollar can gain straighten on positive forecasts.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD closed at 1.17953 after placing a high of 1.18828 and a low of 1.17539. Overall the movement of EUR/USD remained bearish throughout the day. The EUR/USD pair dropped on Friday and bottomed at 1.1753; it’s lowest since August 12. A stronger U.S. dollar and the poor economic data from Europe weighed on EUR/USD pair.

At 12:15 GMT, the French Flash Services PMI for August fell to 51.9 from the expected 56.3, and the previous 57.3, weighed on Euro. The French Flash Manufacturing PMI also declined to 49.0 against the estimated 53.0 and previous 52.4 and added pressure on single currency Euro.

At 12:30 GMT, the German Flash Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.0 from the anticipated 52.2 and supported Euro; however, the German Flash Services PMI came in as 50.8 against the expected 55.3 and weighed on Euro on Friday.

At 13:00, the Flash Manufacturing PMI for the whole Eurozone declined to 51.7 in August from the projected 52.7 and previous 51.8. The Flash Services PMI for the whole bloc also fell to 50.1 against the forecasted 54.6 and added pressure on EUR.

Apart from German Manufacturing PMI, all the PMI from the whole bloc, including biggest economies, came in against EUR, and hence, EUR/USD pair suffered. The data showed that only German manufacturing activity was expanded in August. At the same time, other countries, along with whole euro bloc’s manufacturing & services activities, were contracted in August. Meanwhile, the greenback was the top performer on Friday with DXY up by 0.5% on 93.5 level, the highest since Monday. The U.S. Dollar was already supported by the release of Fed Meeting minutes on Wednesday, and on Friday, the support was extended after the release of positive PMI and Home Sales data.

At 18:45 GMT, the Flash Manufacturing PMI and the Flash Services PMI were released from the U.S. The Manufacturing PMI surged to 53.6 against the expected 51.9, and the Services PMI was surged to 54.u from the 50.9 forecasted. The expansion in the Manufacturing & Services sector of the U.S. gave strength to the U.S. dollar. At 19:00 GMT, the Existing Home Sales in July exceeded the expectations of 5.40M and came in as 5.86Mand supported the U.S. dollar.

The strong U.S. dollar exerted more pressure on EUR.USD prices and dragged them down at the ending day of the week. Meanwhile, the Euro currency was also under pressure because of the resurgence of coronavirus cases in Europe. In recent days France, Germany, and Italy have experienced their highest daily case counts since the spring, and Spain has found itself amid a major outbreak.

Over the past two weeks, Spain has seen Europe’s fastest rising caseload with 142 positive cases per 100,000 people. The number had risen more than 3,000 by the time the state of emergency ended on June 21.

The EUR/USD pair was also under pressure on Friday because of the possible entry of a new phase of the pandemic in Europe. 

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.1787 1.1797 1.1807
1.1777 1.1817
1.1767 1.1827

 EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD pair fell sharply from 1.1954 level to 1.1790 level. For now, the pair is likely to find an immediate resistance at 1.1806 level, and a bullish breakout of 1.1806 level can lead EUR/USD prices towards 1.1886 level. On the lower side, the violation of the 1.1751 level can extend the selling trend until 1.1706.

  


GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

 The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.30627 after placing a high of 1.31488 and a low of 1.30534. Overall, the movement of the GBP/USD pair remained bearish throughout the day. The GBP/USD pair extended its previous day losses and fell further on Monday to a low of 1.3053 level. In the absence of significant macroeconomic data from the U.K. or U.S., the greenback’s market valuation remained the sole driver of GBP/USD pair on the day.

The U.S. Dollar Index dropped below 93 levels during the first half of the day because of upbeat market sentiment. The risk sentiment was fueled after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced on Sunday that it had approved the blood-plasma treatment for coronavirus patients in case of emergency.

The blood plasma from the recovered patients of the virus could increase the health and decrease the morality, and it was approved to use for severe or emergency cases of coronavirus in America. This method has been used in many countries, and the USA has approved it now. U.S. President Donald Trump urged the recovered patients of coronavirus to donate their blood plasma so that fight against coronavirus pandemic could take its pace and recovery chances could increase.

The risk perceived GBP/USD pair gained from this news and rose in the early session on Monday; however, in late American sessions, the rising U.S. Treasury bond yields helped the U.S. dollar to gain traction and lifted the U.S. dollar Index. The DXY moved to a high of 93.30 and was up by 0.06% whereas, the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield was up by more than 2% on Monday.

The strong U.S. dollar in late session exerted pressure on GBP/USD pair that pulled its prices towards the downward track and hence paired posted losses.

Meanwhile, an internal British government document was leaked on the U.K. tabloid “The Sun” that allegedly outlined the country’s plans in a reasonable worst-case scenario. The second wave of coronavirus, along with the severe flooding and the flu with a no-deal Brexit, could cause a systematic economic crisis. According to that document, the major impact will be on unemployment, disposable incomes, business activity, international trade, and market stability.

The document said that social distancing & mask-wearing would be continued until 2021. The government document also revealed that the navy would be deployed to prevent illegal European fishing boats from clashing with British vessels. The document was dated as of July 2020, and also said that if the U.K. and E.U. failed to reach a post-Brexit trade deal, then hard borders and tariffs will come into effect on January 1, 2021.

Trade talks between both parties have stalled with no breakthrough in sight and the chief Brexit negotiator of European Union, Micheal Barnier has said that the talks were going even backward instead of moving forward. At the same time, the U.K. negotiator, David Frost, said that a little progress had been made. Both sides provide mixed views and raise the confusion amongst investors that have been weighing on GBP/USD pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.3082 1.3092 1.3103
1.3071 1.3113
1.3062 1.3124

 GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD pair is trading sideways above a strong support level if 1.3072. The support here is extended by 1.3074 level, where the bearish breakout of 1.3074 level can extend selling unto 1.3007 level. On the higher side, the next resistance is likely to be found around 1.3155 level. The 50 EMA and the technical indicators such as RSI, MACD, and 50 periods of EMA suggest a selling bias in the Cable. Let’s consider taking selling trades below 1.3075 level, while buying can be seen if the GBP/USD pair continues to close candles over 1.3075 level. 


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 105.979 after placing a high of 105.995 and a low of 105.687. Overall the movement of the USD/JPY pair remained bullish throughout the day. The USD/JPY pair posted small gains on Monday amid the risk-on market sentiment after the FDA approved of coronavirus treatment. However, the lingering US-China tensions and the fact that the U.S. Congress was far from giving any news about the next stimulus kept the market risk sentiment limited.

The U.S. Dollar Index was up on Monday to 93.2 level, and the USD/JPY pair also rose because of improved demand for the U.S. dollar.

However, the main reason for the upward trend was a possible coronavirus treatment that was already being used in different countries. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has approved the use of blood plasma from recovered patients to treat severely ill coronavirus patients.

The FDA approved this treatment only in case of an emergency and to recover the most severe cases. Whereas, President Donald Trump appealed to the Americans who have recovered from viruses to donate plasma.

This raised the market risk sentiment and weighed on safe-haven Japanese Yen that ultimately pushed the USD/JPY pair on high.

Japanese Yen remained on the back foot on Monday with global equity indexes posting gains at the start of the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up by 0.8%, and the S&P 500 was up by 0.7% on Monday amid improved risk appetite.

Meanwhile, the next stimulus package was still not announced by the U.S. Congress as both Republicans & Democrats were having differences in the size of the package. On the US-China front, the United States and China have already signed the phase one trade deal earlier this year, and China has trouble living up to it. Beijing is supposed to increase the purchase of U.S. exports by 200 Billion U.S. dollars by the end of 2021 in exchange for tariff cuts on Chinese goods by the U.S.

Last week, both parties were scheduled to hold a video conference meeting to discuss the implementations of the phase-one trade deal and issue a review of its progress. But the meeting was canceled by the U.S. President Donald Trump in anger over Beijing for the pandemic outbreak.

The Trump administration has also denied rescheduling the meeting, and it is expected that the review will not be issued. This also raised the uncertainty and kept the risk sentiment under pressure that limited the gains in the USD/JPY pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
105.7700 105.8500 105.9500
105.6700 106.0300
105.6000 106.1300

 

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Tuesday, the USD/JPY is trading sideways in a broad trading range of 106.300 to 105.240. At the movement, the USD/JPY is tossing above and below 50 periods EMA, while the RSI and MACD are in support of a neutral trend. The recent series of Doji and Shooting start candles are suggesting indecision among traders. Sooner or later, we may see USD/JPY prices break out of the range. Once it happens, the USD/JPY may trade bullish over 106.300 to target 107.084. On the lower side, violation of 105.240 level can drive selling unto 104.300. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Psychology

Changing Your Ways: How to Break Bad Trading Habits

In order to find out your bad trading habits, we need to have a trading journal set up and for it to be full of information. The information is stored in this journal should include things like your entries, exits, any changes to trades, the results of the trades, how long the trade was held for, and much more, basically as much information that you can fill it with. You can then use this information to look for habits, things that you have been doing consistently, and in the case of bad habits things that have consistently been having a negative effect on your trades.

As a side note, if you have not started to record your trades in a journal, then ensure that this is the next thing that you start to do, it is an invaluable source of information and can be used on a regular basis to improve your trading and to make you a better trader.

When looking through your journal, you may find quite a few things that have caused your trades to go bad, it may look like a lot of work, but it may not be quite as bad as you think. A lot of bad habits often stem from the same thing, there could be a single underlying habit which is then causing everything else to take effect. So take a look through to see if there are any characteristics of these trades that are similar to each other. As an example, if we think of a few different issues that can very easily arise, you close a trade early, set your stop loss a little too tight and avoid taking a good trade setup every now and then. Those seem like three completely different issues which by themselves they are, but there is a single underlying factor that links them all, a fear of losing.

We can use this and by dealing with that single underlying issue, it can help us to get over al three of those issues, there may, of course, be something else in there too, but the major factor that links all three together is the fear of losing, so dealing with that will help reduce the likelihood of all three issues recurring. It is all well and good identifying the issue, but we then need to do something about it, and that is where this article comes in. We are going to be looking at some of the things that you can do in order to help get yourself out of these bad trading habits and then become a much more confident and consistent trader.

Use a trading journal:

We touched on this earlier, but you need to be journaling your trades. You just need to. A trading journal gives you so much information, it gives you such a fantastic insight into your trading and your trading habits. You will not be able to deal with your bad habits if you do not know what they are. Just take a few minutes before and after each race to jot things down, it won’t take you a long time to do, in fact, once you have been doing it for a while it will be like second nature to you and can be done pretty quickly. When you are feeling uneasy, write it down, when you come out too early, write it down, just write everything that you do down. It isn’t hard, it does not take too long, so just do it, if you want to be a successful and profitable trader then you need to be doing this.

Talk to yourself:

You have probably been annoyed at some time in your life when you have been trying to do something but the person next to you is reading aloud or talking to themselves. They aren’t necessarily doing this because they are a little crazy, they are most likely doing this as a way of confirming the information or what they are doing with themselves as a way of being sure that they are doing the right thing. There is no harm in this and if you experience a number of bad habits, doing this yourself could help you get over them and nip them in the bud early on.

If you talk to yourself and question what you are doing, it makes you think about it more, this can help you to recognise that one of your bad habits is trying to rear its little head. At this point, you can realise this and then take action to avoid it. This is your first opportunity to tackle a habit, so do not be afraid to talk to yourself or to even question what it is that you are doing, and doing it out loud just makes it a little more real.

Talk to someone else:

Just like when talking to yourself, when you talk to someone else, they may well be able to see and recognise habits that you could not otherwise see, which can then allow you to deal with these habits. Talking to others who have experienced similar things can also help you to work out what you can do to try and avoid those habits from happening again. Getting experience first hand from other people is a fantastic way to get around them as it confirms to you that you are not alone, this habit is normal and if others have gotten over it, so can you.

List the triggers:

It is a good idea to write down the triggers for these bad habits so that you are always aware of what they are. The thing about habits is that they often happen without us knowing that we are doing it, so knowing what he triggers will allow you to work out if you are about to move into one of these habits or if you are already doing one. Just write them down and pin them up as a reminder of what you are looking out for.

Walk away:

Sometimes you need to take the more drastic measure of simply walking away, this may seem counterproductive because you are simply walking away from your bad habits rather than trying to deal with them, but it is not quite that straightforward forward and it depends on what your habit is. There are many traders that are fantastic when they start out, but after a couple of hours in front of the computer, their habits start to come out, cutting corners or getting anxious. This is a good time to take a break, simply walk away from the computer for a short period of time in order to calm yourself and to compose yourself again, this simply removes the opportunity for the habit to occur. It may seem simple, but it is an extremely effective way of avoiding bad habits.

So those are some of the things that you can do to try deal with your bad trading habits, there are of course other things that you can do, and some habits simply work themselves out, what is important is that you are able to recognise your bad habits and are then willing to try and work on them to ultimately remove them from your trading arsenal completely.

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Forex Psychology

How To Deal With The Pressures Of Trading

Stress and pressure is an unfortunate part of trading, and it is one of those things that is inevitable and impossible to avoid completely. It can be caused by a number of different things from your own trading decisions to things that are completely out of your control such as unannounced news conferences or natural disasters. There will always be pressures, what is important is that you develop and understand different ways that you can cope with that pressure or ways that you can help to alleviate it.

Step away: This method may seem a little obvious, but you would be surprised how many people actually struggle to do it, many people when under pressure will actually start to spend more time at the computer or trying to work out where things may have gone wrong. Instead of doing that, take a step back, close down your platform, and walk away. You need to be able to clear your mind, coming back with a clear and fresh mind will enable you to look at things from a different light and it may well make things easier for you to work through whatever was causing the stress.

Accept that you aren’t perfect: No one is perfect, so there is no point trying to be or convincing yourself that you need to be. Instead, you need to accept that you will make mistakes, and you will have losses every now and then. Being able to do this will stop yourself from being so hard on yourself and trying to push yourself too hard to be perfect and to never make mistakes, accept what you will and it will be far easier to move on from any that occur. If you feel that you may be pushing yourself too hard, or that you are doing too much, tell yourself to stop, move away, and then come back.

Create a plan: Sometimes stress can come from the unknown, if you do not have a plan set up for what you will be doing or how you will be making your trades it can be incredibly stressful. Creating a plan enables you to understand exactly what you need to do, it will also help you get a better understanding that losses will happen and may well help you get past those losses and to not blame yourself for them.

Do not compare yourself to others: Many people, especially when starting out, will have someone that they look up to and someone that they may wish to imitate, while it is great to have something to aim for, it is not healthy to constantly compare yourself to them. There are many different things that could be different when you compare their circumstances, such as account balances, experience, and so many other things, so concentrate on your own abilities and the trading plan that you have created for yourself instead of putting yourself under pressure to be like someone else.

Getting through a period of increased pressure can be a fantastic feeling, it will give you energy, it will help you push further and ultimately you will feel good about yourself, however, it would always be beneficial to try and avoid those situations entirely, so do what you can to reduce the occurrences, but if you do get into a period of stress, be sure that you are aware of the ways to get back out of it, you will feel a lot better for it.

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Forex Basics

Is Part-Time Trading Really Worth It?

Something that a lot of people tell you when you start out or let them know that you are thinking of reading is the amount of time that it is going to take, and it is true that to become a successful trader does takes a long time, but what we want to look at is whether or not you can become a successful trader if you are doing it on a part-time basis.

Most people look to get into trading as a part-time thing, something to do after work to make a little extra money on the site. Doing a little bit before work, after work, or just before bed, or maybe you just have not done enough to have the knowledge or the confidence needed to get rid of your job to trade full time, and that is perfectly understandable as it is a huge step.

The problem is that it can be incredibly hard to fit all of this around your job, not many people will want to get up early before heading out to work, or to get home from work and then immediately start working on your trading, you need a break and you will be tired. Most people also have a certain routine before bed that they probably do not want to interrupt with a bit of trading. Your family, your job, and education are all things that take up a lot of your time and would also take time away from any potential trading activities.

A lot of people who work spend a lot of their time sitting down, of course, this depends on the job that you do, but if you do, then it probably isn’t the first thing on your mind to want to come back home and then sit down in another chair for an extended period of time. Instead, you probably want to do something that is as far away from a computer and a desk as [possible, this is where the additional motivation and discipline needs to come in. Are you able to sit down again and are you able to motivate yourself to do it, this is something that a lot of part-time traders can struggle with.

The next thing that you need to consider is your time, we briefly touched on it above, but do you feel that you have enough time to put into trading. You do not need to spend the hours and hours every day in order to learn, something that you often hear from people telling you how hard and time-consuming trading is. In fact, there have been plenty of people who have been trading and started trading by just studying an hour a day or even an hour every two days. You won’t learn as much as quickly, that much is obvious, but there is nothing saying that you aren’t able to learn just as much as anyone else, it will just be over a longer period of time.

One real positive to trading part-time is that there is no expectation or necessity to make money, if you were to be trading full time, there would be a lot of pressure and stresses that come with the trading. When trading part-time, you are doing it as a hobby or to earn a little bit extra, you are not relying on the money to pay your bills or to pay your mortgage, so the real pressure of being successful is not here. This allows you to concentrate on learning and improving and will not have your mind focused on the profits and nothing but the profits. It will also help you get over loose, as that is not taking food out of your mouth, any loss as a part-time trade is more likely a learning experience rather than something that could potentially hurt you.

One thing you need to consider with trading is that when you are doing it part-time, you are needing to make some sacrifices, we mean this in regards to spending time with your friends. If after work you are used to hanging out with friends or going to the pub, you won’t be able to do that at the same time as trading, you will need to make some sacrifices in regards to how you spend your time and this could potentially increase the risk of you being in a form of isolation. While not total isolation this can have a negative effect on your well being and mental health, so having that balance between trading, social life and work life is vital.

Try and think back to the last time that you wanted to try something new, how did it go? Did you manage to fit it around your life, or was it too much for you to fit in, many people take up hobbies and then subsequently find out that you do not have enough time for it, or it is too much work to handle, this is fine, trying is the first step, but understanding what it is possible a vital part of starting and understanding the limitations of what you are doing.

If you are thinking of trading part-time, you really need to consider whether you are able to make the sacrifices that are needed, whether you are able to fit in around the other things that you are doing in your life. It will take time to work, it will take a lot of dedication and discipline, but you can certainly be successful when trading and learning part-time. So if you are up for it, go for it, take that first step, the worst thing that can happen is that you work out what it is not for you, but you may find that it is perfect, you won’t know until you try.

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Forex Basics

How to Successfully Start Your Forex Trading Career

18With many things in life, it is actually beginning which is the hardest thing to do. So the question that you see pretty much everywhere that you go is simply “How do I get started?” or something along those lines. The reason that this question comes up so much is simply that people have been blasted with adverts and promises about the profits that they can make and how much it can change your life. They are then looking towards these profits before they actually know the basics, what a pip is, or even what a broker is.

Trading is a huge beast, and when you are thinking of starting out, it is a daunting beast, a huge one which anyone coming into will not really know where to start. There are certain things that you need to do before you jump in iht both feet, things to learn, and things to set up. Some of those promises are of course a little or even greatly exaggerated, but there is certainly potential out there to get things right if you start out on the right fit. So we are going to be looking at some of the things that you can do in order to get the best start possible for your trading journey.

It is important to point out that there is no one perfect strategy, here is not on holy grail, and there is not a single order that you should be doing things in. every trade is different, so something that works for someone, may not work for you. So do not take this list as gospel, the same that you should not use anything that anyone else says as gospel, simply use it as a way to get an idea of what it is that you could be doing and as a way to get elf on the right fit, rather than simply follow it blindly in the hope of becoming a successful trader. So let’s jump in and see what some of the things that you could be doing in order to start your trading career.

Learn the basics:

Seems a little obvious this one, but you would be surprised at how many people actually seem to skip this, we are talking about the basics of the basics here. Do you know what a pip is? Do you know what a broker actually does? Do you know how to work out your profit and loss? These seem like they would be incredibly basic things, things that any trader should know, but there are people out there trading with real money who do not know one or more of these very obvious questions.

Think about it, would you enter a swimming race if you hadn’t yet learned how to actually swim? That may be an extreme example but it plays out pretty much the same way, you are entering something that is incredibly competitive, yet you have no idea how any of it actually works. You need to ensure that you have learned at least the basics, get an understanding of pips, leverage, risk management, all of these things before you even think of signing up anywhere and especially before putting any of your money anywhere., Take a look around to see what people are doing, indulge yourself in knowledge and just try and learn.

Trade on a demo account:

When you do finally decide to sign up with a broker (which you should have done a lot of looking around and research to find the right one), you will want to ensure that you are on a demo account. The demo account will try to mimic the trading conditions of a real account the best that it can, but the main advantage for trading on this account is that you will not be risking any of your own money.

The demo account is perfect for trying out new strategies or when you are just starting out, it is perfect as a way to get a better understanding of how the trading platform works, but also how trading actually functions. How to put on trades and how to close them. It is recommended that you trade on a demo account for at least the first few months, six months is the number that we often see thrown about. Use the demo account to learn what you are good at and what you need to work on. You won’t make money, but if you are not able to become a profitable trader on the demo account, then there is no point in moving to a live account as you will only lose money. So stick to dem until you are profitable for at last a few months in a row,

Learn to recognise trading and forex patterns:

This will come with doing things over and over and using that demo account that we mentioned above can certainly help with this. You can also do this by looking back on the charts, how far you go will depend on the timeframes that you are thinking of trade. If you are going to trade on the 5-minute charts then look back a few weeks to see if you can see any patterns if you are trading the daily charts, then you may need to look back an entire year or more in order to see if you can recognise the patterns.

I can take time, and it can be quite difficult to begin with to actually recognise what it is that you are looking for. You will need to put this time and effort into working this out if you want to be successful as it is these patterns that will be allowing you to trade successfully when you do finally go live. Do not be afraid to get explanations from others for the sort of patterns that you are looking for, but it is vital that you are able to recognise them yourself before going live.

Create a trading system:

One of the primary things that you would have been told when you were thinking of starting was that you need to create a trading system. This system will have a number of different aspects in it, it will detail what you need to trade, what you need to look for, your risk management, the profit to loss ratio and more. This is basically what dictates your trading. If this has not been created properly there is very little chance that you will end up as a profitable trader. Many people start out by trying to use someone else’s strategy as a shortcut, but you do not understand it, and should the markets change, you will not know how to adapt it properly.

You need to create your own, it is not an easy or quick process but it is one that is vital and it is also vital that you do this while on your demo account. This is important because you will be making mistakes and you will be making a lot of losses as you are creating it. Even the best readers in the world would have had a hard time creating this and would have made a lot of mistakes as they are doing it. So take your time, get it right and it will really help you to get on the right path.

Ready your mind:

If you want to trade like a trader then you are going to have to think like one too. You need to remember that everyone is there for exactly the same thing, so having a new and unique view of the markets does not necessarily mean that you will do any better, traders think in a particular way because that is how you need to think in order to become successful. This is not something that you will be able to do overnight, it will take time, through both practice and by reading or observing others. Learn what it is that you are looking for, how you analyse what it is that you are seeing. Try getting involved in a trading community or two in order to talk to others that are actually trading in order to get their views and opinions on the things that you are looking at.

Track and journal your progress:

This Is the part that most people miss out, yet it is also probably the most important thing that you can do. Creating a trading journal or at least writing down what it is that you are doing. When we say to write things down, we mean everything. The reasons you have entered and trade and the reasons you have not, why you closed a trade, the results, how long you help it, and more. All of these little bits of information will give you a real insight into your trading. This allows you to see both your strengths and weaknesses, it will tell you how you are trading and whether you are following your strategy properly.

This seems like a lot of work and it is, but if you want to be a successful trader then you need to be doing this, and the earlier that you start the better. If you want to be successful then you need to do this, you need to understand why you are trading what you are trading and how you are performing when you do it.

So those are some of the things that you can be doing to help yourself get off on the right foot. Trading is not an easy beast to tame, many will try and subsequently fail. What is important is that you do what you can to get yourself going and to help yourself become successful in the long run. It is a long and hard process, but if you really want it and are willing to put in the time and work, there is no reason why you cannot become a profitable trader.

Categories
Forex Psychology

How To Get Your Trading Mojo Back

Your trading mojo can be a brittle thing, but what exactly does it mean, we have heard it in everyday life, someone has lost their mojo. Well to put things simply, it is another way of saying that someone has lost their confidence or their abilities to do something as well as you used to, and this is definitely relevant to forex and other forms of trading.

For any trader, there have been times where your confidence has been hit, either through a number of successive losses or even from taking a break. Being away from trading for a while and then coming back you will have no doubt forgotten something, this can also have a negative effect on your confidence and your own abilities to successfully analyse and trade.

The problem with losing your mojo is that it often escalates and continues in a downward spiel So you have had a few losses in a row, you now lose confidence in your strategy and begin to make trades that are not in line with it, these then continue to lose and put your account into the red, this further compounds the lack of confidence and can lead to either giving up or even obsessive trading without any real strategy which can increase the risk of blowing an account.

So how do we get this trading mojo back, how do we get out of the rut? The first thing that you will need to do is to take a step back, you need to be able to look at the trading that you have been doing so you can try and work out a few different things. Have you been trading differently? Are you still following the same plan and strategy? Has anything happened around the world that may have influenced the markets? Are you doing anything wrong?

Asking yourself these simple questions is a good place to start. It is part of the process of mending your confidence and will also allow you to work out whether you have changed anything giving you the opportunity to potentially change it back.

So taking a look back at the trades that you have taken. Hopefully, you should have been keeping a trading journal of the trades that you have previously made. You need to be able to look at which trades won and which ones losses, the setups for each one, and any outside influences that may have caused losses. It will take a lot of time but it will be worth it. Doing so may help you to identify certain patterns, both on the markets but also from your own behaviour. Being able to identify these will enable you to stamp them out, it may also go the other way and show that nothing that you did cause them to lose, if it is from outside sources out of your control, then it can be a way of confirming that what you are doing is actually right.

Check your stops and your take profit targets, could they be the cause of your losses, many people either set them too tight or too loose which can lead to missed profits or larger losses. Many people don’t start out with the right figures, it can take a bit of time to adjust them. They also need to be adjusted per trade, different pairs and different market conditions require different stops, so sticking them all at the same levels will no doubt lead to confusing results.

When losing, the worst thing you can do is go larger, instead, look at reducing the size of your trades, this can help ease any concerns that you have about losing more money. Knowing that any further losses will be much smaller can help you to get back into trading and to be a little more confident when trading. It is important to remember that when using smaller trade sizes, stick with them, don’t suddenly put them back up after a win or two, stick to the lower sizes until you have built your account back up to an acceptable level, at this stage you can begin to slowly increase the trade size again.

So those are a few ways to bring back your mojo and confidence, there is no doubt that you will lose it at some point, it is important to be able to recognise it and work on getting it back once it does happen to you.

Categories
Forex Risk Management

Helpful Habits To Help Reduce Your Trading Risks

Risk management, risk management, risk management, one of the most used phrases in trading, and for a good reason too. This can be based on the number of trades, the trade size and the potential loss of each trade, while it is often built into certain strategies, others do not and so it is important to remember to take it into account. We have come up with a few things that you could do to help you remember to do proper risk management and to ensure that you have done it right.

Have a trading plan:

This one may seem a little obvious, and to be fair it is. Unless you have a set trading plan you should not be trading on a live account. The sad truth is, that a lot of traders still trade on their impulses and their feelings rather than following a plan. Trading on emotion and feelings with no regard for the actual markets or certain risk management techniques like take profits and stop losses is a recipe for disaster, accounts will often blow and the trader will be left frustrated and not understanding what actually went wrong. By trading with a plan, you know exactly what trades you need to make, why you need to make them, and the exact amount of your account that you are willing to risk. Always plan your positions, plan your trades and you will be able to protect your account a lot more successfully.

Take profits:

When people think of risk management, they often think about the losses, but the profits are just as important, in fact, they are equally important to the protection of your account. When a trade is going the right way, itis very tempting to want to continue to ride it upwards, this could involve removing any take profit levels or simply moving them a little higher, however, the dangers of doing this is that the markets can reverse at any moment which could either reduce your overall profit or even take you down into the negatives. Taking profits or at least some of them is vital, by some of them we mean that you can set yourself two take profit levels, at the first one you take the profits of half the trade and then allow the other half to move up, at least this way you have taken some of the profits, you could then move the stop losses to break even to guarantee some profits from the trade.

Withdraw regularly:

This goes along with the taking of profits, regular withdrawals are vital, especially when you are just starting out, the phrase of only trading what you can afford to lose is a vital one and goes along with this point nicely. Many people now aim to trade risk-free, this means withdrawing profits each month until you have withdrawn as much as you put in, so you are trading just with profits and your initial investment is protected. Of course, as the account grows, it is important to regularly take some out, you never know when disaster can strike, so getting some out guarantees you those profits even if the account was to suddenly bow (it won’t with proper risk management).

Double-check your trades:

When you have put in your trade, ready to hit go, do you just hit it or do you double-check it? You should be doing the latter, I am sure that at one stage in their career, everyone has put in a trade far bigger or smaller than they intended, even I have put in a trade of 10 lots when I only meant to put in 0.10 lots. It can happen and it is very easy to do, so for hitting buy or sell, double-check the size, the stop loss and the take profits, even check that it is the right pair that you are trading. The consequences of getting it wrong can be huge.

Take a break:

It is important to be able to notice when you are in a bit of a rut when your motivation and concentration levels have dropped, this is the perfect time to take a step back. Taking a break is a fantastic way to help clear your mind, getting what is frustrating you out of your mind will help you to get a fresher look at the markets. When taking that break, be sure to take a complete break, don’t even look at the markets, get away from it completely, this was when you come back none of the thoughts still lingering in your mind, reset from the start of your strategy and take it from there.

There are of course many other things that you can do, however, these are some of the most obvious as it. If you are feeling frustrated, or your confidence levels are down, then take some of these steps, reset your mind, and start again, this will enable you to get your mojo back and will be able to start fresh and hopefully carry on before the rut starts.

Categories
Forex Basics

Do You Trade or Do You Gamble?

If you ask someone that doesn’t know much about sport or anything to do with Forex trading, they will tell you that it is exactly the same thing, and from an outside view, we can see why they would think that. There are however huge differences between those that gamble on the markets and those that trade.

The majority of people get into Forex trading for a simple reason, to make money, if we look at it at a base level, there is no reason to trade apart from gaining money. So we all have the same goal, so why do people go about it differently. Ultimately it comes down to mindset, some people have the patience to learn, the drive to improve, while others want the easy get rich quick version, which the vast majority of the world will see as gambling.

So what would the differences be? Let’s take a look at EURUSD, it’s the worlds most traded currency pair, its currently moving horizontally, a trader will have a strategy with certain criteria that need to be met, the majority of strategies won’t take a trade while it is moving in a horizontal manner, however to a gambler, it doesn’t really matter, it is a 50/50 to them, in terms of gambling, those are pretty good odds, you only need one trade more in the right direction than the wrong to make money. Of course, the forex markets are not that simple, there are thousands of different things that can have an effect on the markets, things a trade will know but a gambler will not.

Trading and gambling are not exclusive from one another, a trader can very easily be sucked into the world of gambling, you just made a losing trade, you may want to win that money back , so you trade with a little bit extra, this is a form of gambling. You see someone make a lot on a trade, you want the same so you put in trade following them or that does not work with your own strategy in the hope to make a bit more money, again this is gambling.

The main difference between the two is the patience and learning that comes with trading, having your own strategy with strict entry and exit criteria will make you a trader, each trade that you make is calculated and is not fuelled by the thought of making some extra money.

Trading takes a loot at the probabilities that are within the markets, they are are always more likely to move one way or another, these probabilities are the driving force for the prices. News events add probabilities, technical and fundamental analytical information add probabilities, the market consensus adds probabilities, you get the point. A trader will take all of these into consideration before making a trade, so it is no longer a 50/50 trade it is not an 80/20 trade. That is where the main difference comes from, taking the probabilities and only taking trades that are in your favour rather than trading ad hoping.

You can create the mindset of a trader rather than a gambler by using tools such as trading journals, learning from past trades one of the best things a trader can do, recording entries, exits and reasons for the trade, while a gambler will simply trade without any records being kept.

So are you a gambler or a trader, do you plan your trades, do you record things? Or are you just here to try and make a bit of quick and easy money?

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, August 24 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Choppy Sessions In Play! 

On the news front, the market isn’t expected to offer any major economic event today; therefore, most of the market movement is likely to be based upon technical levels. Choppy sessions are expected today.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD closed at 1.17953 after placing a high of 1.18828 and a low of 1.17539. Overall the movement of EUR/USD remained bearish throughout the day. The EUR/USD pair dropped on Friday and bottomed at 1.1753; it’s lowest since August 12. A stronger U.S. dollar and the poor economic data from Europe weighed on EUR/USD pair.

At 12:15 GMT, the French Flash Services PMI for August fell to 51.9 from the expected 56.3, and the previous 57.3, weighed on Euro. The French Flash Manufacturing PMI also declined to 49.0 against the estimated 53.0 and previous 52.4 and added pressure on single currency Euro.

At 12:30 GMT, the German Flash Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.0 from the anticipated 52.2 and supported Euro; however, the German Flash Services PMI came in as 50.8 against the expected 55.3 and weighed on Euro on Friday.

At 13:00, the Flash Manufacturing PMI for the whole Eurozone declined to 51.7 in August from the projected 52.7 and previous 51.8. The Flash Services PMI for the whole bloc also fell to 50.1 against the forecasted 54.6 and added pressure on EUR.

Apart from German Manufacturing PMI, all the PMI from the whole bloc, including biggest economies, came in against EUR, and hence, EUR/USD pair suffered. The data showed that only German manufacturing activity was expanded in August. At the same time, other countries, along with whole euro bloc’s manufacturing & services activities, were contracted in August. Meanwhile, the greenback was the top performer on Friday with DXY up by 0.5% on 93.5 level, the highest since Monday.

The U.S. Dollar was already supported by the release of Fed Meeting minutes on Wednesday, and on Friday, the support was extended after the release of positive PMI and Home Sales data.

At 18:45 GMT, the Flash Manufacturing PMI and the Flash Services PMI were released from the U.S. The Manufacturing PMI surged to 53.6 against the expected 51.9, and the Services PMI was surged to 54.u from the 50.9 forecasted. The expansion in the Manufacturing & Services sector of the U.S. gave strength to the U.S. dollar. At 19:00 GMT, the Existing Home Sales in July exceeded the expectations of 5.40M and came in as 5.86Mand supported the U.S. dollar.

The strong U.S. dollar exerted more pressure on EUR.USD prices and dragged them down at the ending day of the week. Meanwhile, the Euro currency was also under pressure because of the resurgence of coronavirus cases in Europe. In recent days France, Germany, and Italy have experienced their highest daily case counts since the spring, and Spain has found itself amid a major outbreak.

Over the past two weeks, Spain has seen Europe’s fastest rising caseload with 142 positive cases per 100,000 people. The number had risen more than 3,000 by the time the state of emergency ended on June 21.

The EUR/USD pair was also under pressure on Friday because of the possible entry of a new phase of the pandemic in Europe. 

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.1787 1.1797 1.1807
1.1777 1.1817
1.1767 1.1827

 EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD pair fell sharply from 1.1954 level to 1.1790 level. For now, the pair is likely to find an immediate resistance at 1.1806 level, and a bullish breakout of 1.1806 level can lead EUR/USD prices towards 1.1886 level. On the lower side, the violation of the 1.1751 level can extend the selling trend until 1.1706.

  


GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

 The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.30884 after placing a high of 1.32550 and a low of 1.30588. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained bearish throughout the day. At 04:01 GMT, the GfK Consumer Confidence in August declined to -27 against the forecasted -25 and weighed on British Pound and added in the losses of GBP/USD pair. At 11:00 GMT, the Public Sector Net Borrowing increased to 25.9B from the expected 28.3B and supported British Pound. The Retail Sales for July also increased to 3.6% from the forecasted 2.0% and supported British Pound.

At 13:30 GMT, the Flash Manufacturing MI from Britain exceeded the expectations of 54.0 and came in as 55.3 and supported GBP. The Flash Services PMI also rose to 60.1 against the estimated 57.0 and supported GBP. At 15:00 GMT, the CBI Industrial Order Expectation in August was declined to -44 from the anticipated -34 and weighed on GBP/USD pair and added in its losses on Friday.

On the other hand, at 18:45 GTM, the Flash Manufacturing PMI from the U.S. surged to 53.6 from the anticipated 51.9 and supported the U.S. dollar that weighed on currency pair. The Flash Services PMI also surged to 54.8 against the anticipated 50.9 and supported the U.S. dollar. The Existing Home Sales exceeded the estimate of 5.40M and came in as 5.86M and supported the U.S. dollar that ultimately weighed on GBP/USD pair.

Meanwhile, on Brexit front, On Friday, the British and European Union negotiator made slight progress towards the post-Brexit trade deal in talks this week. Both sides were concerned that time to reach an agreement was running out before an end-year deadline.

The E.U. Chief negotiator, Micheal Barnier, said that those who were hoping for negotiations to move swiftly forward this week would be disappointed. However, his British counterpart, David Frost, said that a deal on post-Brexit relations was still possible and was still London’s goal, but it would not be easy to achieve.

Frost said that several significant areas remain to be resolved, and even when there was a broad understanding between negotiators, there was still much work to do as a time for both sides was short.

Britain shifted to be the leading country to ever leave the European Union on January 31 after 46 years of membership. Both sides are now negotiating a new partnership to be effective from 2021 on everything from trade and transport to energy and security. If both sides failed to reach an agreement, Britain would follow the World Trade Organization’s rules.

The attest round of talks between the U.K. & E.U. was also not fruitful, and it has decreased hopes for a post-Brexit deal. It means the hopes about the no-Brexit deal returned in the market and weighed on GBP/USD pair that caused a sudden fall in its prices on Friday.

The U.K. economy is also under pressure as the furlough scheme that has protected millions of jobs is scheduled to end in October. This would hit the labor market and increase unemployment, making it difficult to recover from the record 20% slump in the second quarter of this year.

These fears have also weighed on single currency Pound and kept the pair GBP/USD under pressure.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.3082 1.3092 1.3103
1.3071 1.3113
1.3062 1.3124

 GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On Monday, the GBP/USD pair is trading sideways above a strong support level if 1.3072. The support here is extended by 1.3074 level, where the bearish breakout of 1.3074 level can extend selling unto 1.3007 level. On the higher side, the next resistance is likely to be found around 1.3155 level. The 50 EMA and the technical indicators such as RSI, MACD, and 50 periods of EMA suggest a selling bias in the Cable. Let’s consider taking selling trades below 1.3075 level, while buying can be seen if the GBP/USD pair continues to close candles over 1.3075 level. 


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 105.789 after placing a high of 106.070 and a low of 105.439. Overall the movement of USD/JPY remained almost flat yet slightly bullish. On Friday, the USD/JPY pair dropped in the first half of the day after the release of Japanese Manufacturing PMI and the persisting uncertainty due to ongoing geopolitical tensions. However, in the second half of the day, the USD/JPY pair recovered its early daily losses and rose to post slight gains amid better than expected U.S. economic data.

AT 04:30 GMT, the National Core CPI for the year declined to 0.0% from the estimated 0.1% and weighed on Japanese Yen. At 05:30 GMT, the Flash Manufacturing PMI from Japan in August rose to 46.6 against the estimated 45.0 and came in favor of Japanese Yen. The improvement in the manufacturing sector in Japan gave a push to Japanese Yen and dragged the pair USD/JPY to the lower level near 105.400.

However, after the release of positive macroeconomic data from the U.S., the USD/JPY pair started to rise and converted its daily losses in gains. At 18:45 GMT, the Flash Manufacturing PMI in August rose to 53.6 against the projected 51.9, and the Flash Services PMI rose to 54.8 against the anticipated 50.9.

The expansion in the U.S. manufacturing and services sector gave strength to the U.S. dollar that was more supported by the release of U.S. Existing Home Sales data. The Existing Home Sales in the U.S. for July rose to 5.86M from the anticipated 5.40M and gave a push to the U.S. dollar that added strength in USD/JPY pair.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) that measures the value of the U.S. dollar against the basket of six major currencies rose by0.5% on Friday towards 93.5 level. It also helped USD/JPY pair to recover some of its daily losses on Friday.

Meanwhile, the ongoing geopolitical tensions between U.S. & China, along with the U.S. & Iran tensions, also kept the pair USD/JPY under pressure at the ending day of the week. On the US-China front, the US Trump administration denied acknowledging the plans to meet China over the discussion of implementations of the phase-one trade deal. The U.S. Commerce ministry spokesman Gao Feng said that in the coming days, the U.S. & China would hold meetings to discuss phase one trade deal.

However, the denial of any such meeting by Trump Administration added uncertainty in the market and kept the pair USD/JPY under pressure.

N the other hand, the U.S. called all U.N. sanctions to be restored on Iran after a violation of the 2015 nuclear deal. However, 13 out of 15 U.N. council members wrote against the U.S.’s request to impose sanctions on Iran as in 2018; the U.S. ended its legal terms with the 2015 nuclear deal by calling it the worst deal ever.

Meanwhile, the Chairman of China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, Guo Shuqing said that the U.S. had placed domestic laws above international laws, which will affect the Chinese people and affect the whole world people including Americans. Shuqing also mentions that these sanctions by the U.S. on Hong Kong lacked legality and violated the market economy’s principles. The ongoing geopolitical tensions increased the uncertainty, which supported the Japanese Yen safe0haven status and contributed to the flat movement of the USD/JPY pair on Friday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
105.7700 105.8500 105.9500
105.6700 106.0300
105.6000 106.1300

 

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading sideways in a broad trading range of 106.300 to 105.240. At the movement, the USD/JPY is tossing above and below 50 periods EMA, while the RSI and MACD are in support of a neutral trend. The recent series of Doji and Shooting start candles are suggesting indecision among traders. Sooner or later, we may see USD/JPY prices break out of the range. Once it happens, the USD/JPY may trade bullish over 106.300 to target 107.084. On the lower side, violation of 105.240 level can drive selling unto 104.300. Good luck! 

Categories
Beginners Forex Education Forex Basics

Avoid these Common Trading Blunders

There are a lot of blunders and mistakes that you can make as a new trader and also as an experienced trader. What we need to remember is that mistakes happen, both small ones and large ones, sometimes it can be our own fault and sometimes it is completely out of our control. What is important is that we learn from those that we have done, and try to avoid those that we have not, so we have come up with a list of some quite common mistakes that traders make, but also ones that you should keep an eye out to try and avoid.

Not having a trading plan:

You are probably bored of hearing this now, but a trading plan is wanted, in fact, it is needed. If you are trading without a trading plan, you are putting your trades and your account in danger. When first starting out, you won’t have a full trading plan created, but it is important to get one started, as you continue down your trading journey and learn more you can add to it and adapt it to the new things that you have learned. What is important is that you have one, it will detail the requirements to get into a trade and how to get out, as well as everything in between. Without it, you will be trading blind and this will only lead to ruin.

Chasing results:

Please don’t do this, chasing results leads to overtrading which leads to loss. If you start to chase results, you won’t be taking the very specific rules that you have created into account, you will begin to start making bad trades or even completely guessing your trades, this will only lead to losses as you cannot predict the markets. You need to stick to your trading plan, do not chase results, they will come in time and in a controlled manner as long as you continue to follow your trading plan.

Forgetting your risk tolerance:

Every single person in the world has a set risk tolerance, this is how much they are willing to risk or how much they can risk without it consuming every thought that they have that day. You need to remember yourself, pushing yourself too hard will begin to cause unnecessary stress that you really do not need. When you created your trading plan, you should have taken your risk tolerance into account so that you always remain around it or below it. If you go too high, you will begin to hate trading and it will feel far more like gambling, which is not a good route to go down.

Forgetting the time:

This is more about getting obsessed with the markets, they can be exciting and then can be boring, but one thing we can be sure of is that once you are in them, you don’t always want to get out. What you do not want to do is to get obsessed, you need to be treating trading like a job, you would not want to sit at your job 14 hours a day, so do not do it with trading, be sure that you have set times, especially when starting out and things generally take longer to do. It’s not healthy for you or your relationships if you are spending too much time by yourself on the computer.

Not using stop losses or take profits:

You most likely have been told by someone that you should be using stop losses, you should be using them to help limit the amount that you can lose, and they are right. Stop losses are essential, they limit the amount of risk that you are putting on each individual trade. They are also there to save your account. Not setting stool losses basically allows a single trade to potentially blow your entire account should it go too far. Always use stop losses, they should be cemented into your trading plan, if not, go and put them in right now.

A similar thing can be said about take profits, while not as potentially devastating to your account, not using take profits can cause you to lose out of profits, some may argue that they can actually reduce profits, but a take profit used is that money banked. If you created a risk/reward plan within your trading plan then there should be take profit levels taken into consideration, others may refer to use a trailing stop instead, but that still acts as a form of take profit, be sure to use one, especially when starting out.

Not cutting losses:

This goes along with not using stop losses, but let’s imagine that you do not have the set and your trades have now gone into negatives. What do you do? Do you hold them and hope that they will turn around or do you cut the loss and move on? Knowing when to cut is vital and also a very important thing to understand. You do not want to let your losses start to run and control your account. In your head, you should have a percentage that you are willing to cut, once it gets there cut it, regardless of what you think. That is your set target and it is to protect your account, so cut it, do not let it run or you will be risking your entire account instead.

Using grid or martingale strategies:

One of the easiest strategies to learn is the grid strategy or the martingale strategy, mainly because there is very little strategy to it, they are also the ones that you see the most around the internet. So if it’s so easy, and so popular, why don’t we all use them? Simply because they are also the riskiest strategies around. The strategy is simple if a trade goes against you, you simply open up a trade going in the same direction as your original, now you have two, trades, it continues further, you open up a third, you continue doing this until either your account blows or it reverses and you close everything once the overall position is profitable. The only real difference between grid and martingale is that with martingale you increase the lot size each time and with grid you keep it stable.

You can probably see how dangerous it is, as soon as you start adding positions or lot sizes, the drawdown starts to grow exponentially, not a safe thing to do at all and it has blown hundreds and thousands of accounts in the post and they will continue to how many more in the future.

Being influenced by others:

You have your strategy all setup, it is working for you, so why would you suddenly listen to a random person on a forum somewhere that the analysis that you have done or even that your overall strategy is wrong? What do they know? They don’t know how your strategy works or how you can do the result of your analysis. Your strategy has been working so why would you second guess it because someone else said something. Stick to your guns, do not change things just because someone loses things differently. You are here to trade your plan, not someone else’s.

Blindly following signals:

Sometimes signals can be a godsend, it is a way to put on trades that someone else has done all the analysis for and so you just need to place it a reap the regards. Unfortunately, it isn’t quite as simple as that, placing trades from signals completely blind means that you have no idea why it was placed.would you give your money to someone to place on the horses? Probably not, as far as you know, they are just posting random trades, if you are going to follow signals, be sure that you understand the reasons behind the trades and how they came to those conclusions. This will allow you to do some of your own analysis to help confirm a signal before putting one on, allowing for far greater accuracy and confirmation of each signal.

Too much risk per trade:

Your trading plan should cover this, it should have a risk management plan and get into it also, this will detail exactly how much you are willing to risk with each trade. Depending on your strategy this could be between 0.1% per trade up to 2% per trade. Of course, some can go higher, but that is putting a lot of risk on your account, and the higher you go, the more likely you are to blow the account. If you have not got anything set, then you are risking the entire account with each trade, make sure that you limit the risk that each trade takes, this is one of the primary ways of keeping your account safe and alive.

Too much emotion:

Motions are extremely powerful, they are powerful enough to take over your entire mindset and to alter the way that you trade. Emotions like greed and overconfidence can cause you to through your trading plan completely out of the window. They can cause you to trade outside the plan on what you think will happen, you need to remember that the markets do not care what you think. You need to be able to control your emotions, when things are going well, remember that it is your plan giving success, not you when things are going wrong, the plan works and will turn things around to give an overall profit. Always trade with the plan and not with your emotions.

Following the herd:

Many new traders will pretty much blindly follow what other traders are doing, if they see a lot of people going long on EURUSD then they most likely will too, why? Simply because others do, they have no knowledge behind whey they are going long or what other people see in the markets as to why they have gone long. You need to be able to do our own analysis and to come to your own conclusions. Do not just do things because others are doing it, in anything in life, make up your own decisions and then own those decisions that you do make.

Not continuing to learn:

One thing that a lot of traders do is that they learn their first strategy, once they understand it they stop at that. They have their strategy and so that is all that they need. However the markets are an ever-changing thing, you always need to be able to adapt and the only way to do this is to continue to learn. As soon as you stop, you are being left behind, there are always more things to learn, from new strategies, risk management, various elements of the markets, it is a never-ending course and one that you should not take for granted, you can never learn everything there is to it, but a continuous learning plan is the best way forward.

Losing track of your goals:

When you started trading you would have set yourself a set goal, something that you want to aim for. You need to keep that in mind and in perspective. If things going well, do not suddenly move your goal ten steps ahead, if things are going well, use that goal to remember why you are here and what you want out of it. That goes needs to stay at the forefront, write it on your wall if you need to, that is your source of motivation and why you are here, so do not lose sight of that and keep working towards it, no matter how hard things are at that point in time.

Diversifying too much:

A lot of strategies that you see out there say that they can work with any currency pair or asset available, those sorts of strategies are just hitting and hoping, instead, when creating a strategy, you need to focus on one or two currency pairs or assets. This way you can ensure that your strategy works with those pairs and that it will be able to deal with its movements and changes. Every single asset and currency pair moves differently and is influenced by different things, so a single strategy cannot work for all of them, instead, focus on learning a few of them and make them your bread and butter.

Not asking for help or advice:

We mentioned earlier that blindly listening to others is a bad thing, of course it is, but so is not asking for help when you need it. Sitting in front of the screen and markets not knowing what you should be doing or not knowing why something went wrong is not a good position to be in, instead ask for help, others may be able to give you an insight into what went wrong and reasons why your strategy may not be working. So not just kindly do what they suggest, instead use the knowledge and information that they have given you to look deeper into what you did so you can know exactly what went wrong. Do not sit there by yourself wondering forever.

Not asking for support:

The last point that we will point out can actually be one of the most important, trading can be stressful and it can be lonely. If you ever feel that you are becoming overstressed, frustrated, or lonely, get out and ask for help. The most important thing in life is your health and your well-being, do not let that suffer for your trading. Friends and family are important, so keep them close and keep in touch with them, do not lose them over trading Look after yourself. A lot of traders let trading take over their lives, do not let that happen to you.

There are of course more things that a lot of traders get wrong, but we don’t want to give a list of 10,000 different things that makes it sound like you can’t actually do anything when trading without doing things wrong. You will make mistakes, that is the course of life and anything that we do, what is important is that when you make one of those mistakes, you are there to make it better again and to learn from the mistake that you have made. Do not fear that you have done any of these, as soon as you have realised that you have done something that you should not have, or that something didn’t go your way, that is the time to make the change and improve. Of course, some things here may actually suit your style, so it is up to you to decide what is actually good or bad and what you need to change, but change is the catalyst for success, so do not stick with something that isn’t working as well as it used to.

Categories
Forex Basics

Do You Ever Force Your Trades?

Throughout the career of a trader there will be days where the markets go against you or there isn’t much happening with all the markets moving sideways, the sensible thing to do in this situation is to sit it out and wait, but this can cause boredom, people can become addicted to the excitement of the markets and so they will decide to force some trades, but this is never a good idea.

Forcing trades basically means that you are taking trades outside of your usual strategy or risk management plan, they are often not planned for and carry a much higher level of risk when comparing them to your usual trades. This is often performed by someone who really wants to do something, even if the conditions are not right for it, it is a little like that toy we all had as a kid, trying to force the square piece through the circle hole, you may actually get it through, but if you do it will come out of the other side a little damaged.

Making these spur of the moment or forced trades can lead to a few psychological complications also, as they aren’t planned, they may be larger than usual or you may have more trades, increasing drawdowns or causing fear of loss as well as other anxieties about the unplanned trades.

So when the markets are dull, what can we do? These are the perfect times to plan, look at future potential trades, learn more about your strategy or even start looking at entirely new ones, these lulls in the markets are quite rare, so you should take advantage of them away from actually trading.

In order to avoid the habit of making forced trades, you should try and turn your strategies rules into habits themselves, so when you see that something is not matching up, you won’t take it. In order to do this, you need to find a set of trading rules that match your personality and needs, having one that stresses you out or doesn’t suit you can lead to additional forced trades either through frustration or boredom.

Don’t forget when trading that it is the market that leads you, you are simply reading what it is doing and going along with it if you try to force trades in markets that do not want to play, then the markets will eventually begin to move against you resulting in losses. Let it take the lead and follow its rhythm, do not force them.

This is far easier for people who have traded for a long period of time, they get into habits, as a new trader, it is your responsibility to build those habits into your own trading, focus on your strategy and the success that it brings and try not to think about what trades you could be made outside of that strategy, do not damage the progress and profits that you have already made by forcing some extra trades for no good reason.

Categories
Forex Psychology

Greed: The Most Dangerous Emotion to Feel While Trading

When just starting out, one of the many warnings that people seem to get is to not be greedy, in fact, a lot of mistakes that are made from both the new and experienced can have an aspect of greed in it, but what exactly is greed?

Greed is basically a “selfish and excessive desire for more of something than is needed” as stated by the Merriam-Webster dictionary. If you think back into your life, I am sure that you will be able to see times where this definition matches your own experiences, in fact, you may have experienced it a large number of times, often it can be a subconscious thing, making decisions without us even knowing, other times it can be an aim, not a good one, but it is still an aim.

Now greed by itself is not necessarily a bad thing, it involves the desire to gain more, to achieve more which is often a good form of motivation, where things go wrong is when this want for more becomes excessive when you do not have a limit to how much you want and so you keep pushing yourself for more and more and it can eventually push you to do things that you would never have done before and that is way outside your strategies boundaries.

So what exactly are the dangers of it? Greed is a very strong emotion that can prompt you to take actions that you would never have otherwise taken when we are looking at trading, this would come in the form of creating additional trades, larger trade sizes than usual or chasing the markets in order to either make more or to win back some of your previous losses. It can cloud your judgment and take you off the path that you have been working on for so long.

So we know what it is, and we know why it is bad, so how do we get over it? How do we suppress that emotion? It can be done, but it will take effort and discipline to do, its not easy, but once done, it will make your trading far safer and far more successful.

The first thing you need to do is take a hit to your ego, you need to have an understanding that you aren’t always right, you have your strategy with its criteria for a reason, if you were always right, you would not need that at all, and you know what? That is a good thing, you won’t always catch the movement of the entire market and you may miss out setups altogether, it is important to recognise that as when it happens, you still need to move on and concentrate on the next trade and not look back in regret.

That is a part of trading, losses and missed trades are as much a part of trading as winning is, looking at your strategy, in the long run, you can make a lot, but greed will tell you to make a lot now and worry about the future tomorrow, not a good tactic if that greedy trade causes you to lose the last months profits. Being able to forget the previous trades and just look forward is a way of preventing yourself from being influenced by our greed and making unnecessary and dangerous trades.

One way that some people prevent greed from coming in is to convince themself that they are more lucky than skilled when it comes to trading, so they do not have the belief that they can just put in trades and win, instead they need to ensure that they follow their strategies and entry criteria in order to trade, something that helps prevent them from making additional unnecessary trades. So ultimately, you need to look to the future, concentrate on your strategy, and avoid those additional trades.

Categories
Forex Fundamental Analysis

What Is ‘Interbank Rate’ and What Impact Does It Have On The Forex Market?

Introduction

The Interbank rate is an essential tool used by the central authorities to control the money flow within the economy. Changes in the interbank rate can add or withdraw money from the system overall, which can stimulate growth or slow down the economy, respectively. The Interbank rate drives interest rates for bank loans, which are the significant sources of capital for businesses and the general public. The understanding of the Interbank rate is crucial for our analysis.

What is the Interbank Rate?

The interbank rate is the percentage rate at which the United States banks lend each other money. A country’s Central bank dictates the banking practices for the banks within the nation. For the United States, it is the Federal Reserve which decides the interest rates and the banking practices. The central banks, in general, demand 10% of their total deposits be held as reserves to maintain liquidity and meet withdrawal needs.

Based on the interbank rate, banks having excess cash can lend money to the banks, which are falling short of capital to meet their immediate requirements or to maintain their minimum reserves.

What is the Interbank Rate – Second Definition?

The interbank rate also refers to the rate at which banks exchange currencies in the global forex market. The forex market consists of an interbank market, which is a significant part of the forex market system overall. This interbank market consists of big players. Most of those are banks, large financial institutions, investment banks, and mutual funds corporations and do not include retail forex institutions or traders.

The interbank rate numbers are what you see when you search in Google the currency exchange rate for a particular pair, but this is not the rate at which you can trade a pair. This rate is only available for the interbank market participants who are usually big financial corporations trading in millions and billions. The price you see is a jacked-up price of the interbank rate in your platform. Your rate is the sum of interbank rate and the spread which your platform charges for trade as profit.

The minimum transaction in the interbank market is in millions; hence the retail traders will not be able to afford the interbank rate. The interbank market participants trade currencies to manage their exchange rate and control interest rate risk.

Although, you can neither control nor trade at the interbank rate, important for traders to be aware of the interbank rate to avoid getting scammed by Forex brokers who main charge way above the interbank rate. The decentralized system of Forex allows for self-regulation, and hence the interbank rates hand the actual exchange rates available to traders are competitive and self-correcting. However, novice traders who are not aware of this might lose money by paying an excessive spread to brokers.

Economic Reports

Federal Reserve determines the interbank rate, and the average of all the interbank rates in all the lending transactions between the banks in the United States is called the Fed Funds Rate.

The interbank credit system is applicable for a short period, usually ranging from overnight to a maximum of a week. Hence, the interbank rate is also called the Fed Funds Rate.

The Federal Reserve announces the Fed Funds Rate based on a variety of factors like inflation, GDP growth, recession, monetary policy, etc. On the 1st of every month, the Fed Funds Rate is released.

How can the Interbank Rate be Used for Analysis?

The Fed Funds Rate drives money in and out of the economy. The Fed Funds Rate drives the interest rate on bank loans that is available to the public and businesses.

A higher Fed Funds Rate would mean that loans are now expensive than before. To take a loan now would mean paying more interest rate. Hence the general public is discouraged from taking loans indirectly. On the other hand, now it would be more profitable to save as they receive a higher interest rate on their deposits. Both these factors can change the general public sentiment on money spending. A high-interest rate environment withdraws money from the economy, thereby slowing down economic activity as people are less willing to spend.

Conversely, a low interbank rate encourages banks to give loans at a cheaper rate, and hence more businesses and people will be able to afford loans; this will ultimately lead to the injection of money into the system overall. When more money is available to a company or an individual, the natural tendency is to increase spending, businesses may use for expansion plans. All of this will stimulate economic growth and result in printing higher levels of GDP.

Impact on Currency

Traders and investors can use the Fed Funds Rate as part of their analysis. Since Central authorities use the fed funds rate to manage the economy and money supply, a historical correlation of interest rates with GDP growth rates can help us to determine the direction of the economy and the value of its currency.  It is a proportional indicator meaning higher interbank rates relate to currency appreciating phenomenon and vice versa.

Higher Interbank rates result in banks paying out higher interest rates for deposits, which can also attract foreign investors to purchase domestic currency to make a deposit and earn better returns on their investment.  Therefore, an increase in capital flowing into the economy and decreased local currency circulation in the rest of the world, thereby increasing its demand and worth.

A low interbank rate results in increased money flow into the system, which can be inflationary, thereby depreciating the purchasing power of its currency. Conversely, a higher interbank rate results in decreased money circulation in the system, which will be deflationary for the economy, and the reduced demand for goods and services will increase the purchasing power of the currency as people would tend to save than spend.

Even though the interbank rate changes do not immediately get reflected in the macroeconomic numbers like GDP and currency value, it is a slow indicator in that sense that it takes a particular time (weeks to few months) to show its effect in actuality. It is also important to know that the authorities use the interbank rate as a response or corrective measure to the current economic situation.

It is more of a gate check for inflation or deflation. It is more of an effect to a cause and not a cause in itself. It is a passive indicator in comparison to other indicators. It reflects more the past and current economic activities than upcoming financial situations. The initial temporary volatility in the currency after the news release is typical, but the long term effect reflects after a certain number of weeks only.

Sources of Interbank Rates

We can find out the Fed Funds Rate from the official website of the Federal Reserve System of the United States: Federal Reserve SystemSelected Interest Rates. We can also find a historical graphical representation of the effective fed fund rate changes in the St. Louis FRED website. For reference – Fed Fund Rate

Impact of Interbank Rate News Announcement   

The ultimate goal of any fundamental analysis is usually to determine if there will be a hike or a cut in the interest rates. As mentioned earlier, the interbank rate can also be referred to as the Federal funds rate. In the US, the Federal Reserve releases the interbank rate is determined by the FOMC which meets eight times in a year to set this rate

Below is a screengrab of the Federal Funds Rate from Forex Factory. On the right, we can see a legend that indicates the level of impact the Fundamental Indicator has on the corresponding currency.

The snapshot below shows the latest release of the Federal Funds Rate on July 29, 2020, at 1.00 PM ET. In the latest release, the FOMC recommended that the rate remains within the target of 0% and 0.25%. This range was within the analysts’ expectations.

It is worth noting that this year, the Federal Reserve has conducted two emergency rate cuts to combat the Coronavirus inflicted economic shocks. The first emergency rate cut was on March 3, 2020, at 10.00 AM ET, as shown by the screenshot below. The Federal funds rate was reduced to a target range of 1.00% to 1.25% from the previous range of 1.50% to 1.75%.

At another unscheduled emergency meeting on March 15, 2020, at 4.00 PM ET, the FOMC cut the federal funds rate by 1.00% to a target range of 0.00% to 0.25%.

Now, let’s see how this news release made an impact on the Forex price charts.

EUR/USD: Before Interbank Rate release on July 29, 2020, Just Before 1.00 PM ET

As shown on the above 15-minute chart of the EUR/USD, the pair was on a progressing uptrend between 7.45 AM and 12.45 PM ET. This uptrend as evidenced by the subsequent bullish candles forming above the 20-period Moving Average.

EUR/USD: After Interbank Rate release on July 29, 2020, 1.00 PM ET

After the FOMC release of the Federal funds rate, there is a renewed volatility in the market. The initial market reaction was negative for USD since the FOMC kept the rate unchanged. The rate release did not result in a shift in the trend since most traders anticipate it and price in their expectations in the market.

Let’s quickly see how this new release has impacted some of the other major Forex currency pairs.

GBP/USD: Before Interbank Rate release on July 29, 2020, Just Before 1.00 PM ET

GBP/USD: After Interbank Rate release on July 29, 2020, 1.00 PM ET

The GBP/USD pair shows similar trends, as observed with the EUR/USD. There is a steady uptrend hours before the interbank rate release. Market volatility is present after the news release but not significant enough to alter the prevailing trend.

USD/CAD: Before Interbank Rate release on July 29, 2020, Just Before 1.00 PM ET

USD/CAD: After Interbank Rate release on July 29, 2020, 1.00 PM ET

For the USD/CAD pair, a weak uptrend is observed, with candles forming just around the 20-period Moving Average. After the interbank rate release, the pair shows the same weakness for the USD as observed with the EUR/USD and the GBP/USD.

Bottom Line

The interbank rate is a high-impact fundamental indicator in the forex market. The FOMC Statement, however, dampens its impact since it is focused on the future. It is therefore advisable for traders to avoid opening significant positions before this news release. Furthermore, reading the FOMC statement will help to gauge whether the Fed is hawkish or dovish about the future.

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, August 21 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eyes in PMI Figures! 

On the news front, eyes will remain on the Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI figures from the Eurozone, U.K., and the United States. Almost all economic figures are expected to perform better than previous months, perhaps due to the lift of lockdown. Price action will depend upon any surprise changes in the PMI figures.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

Today in the Asian trading hours, the EUR/USD currency pair has succeeded in stopping its Thursday’s losing streak and continues to gain positive traction just closer to 1.1900 level, mainly due to the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, triggered by the dismal U.S. Jobless Claims data. The upbeat market sentiment and on-going uncertainty surrounding the much-awaited U.S. fiscal stimulus also weighed on the safe-haven U.S. dollar and contributed to the currency pair gains. 

Across the pond, the shared currency continues to gaining bullish traction as most of the investors believe that the European Union (E.U.) will reach an agreement on a coronavirus recovery package for its members in late July. This, in turn, the currency pair has been flashing green since the week start. On the contrary, the rising coronavirus cases in Germany and France turned out to be a major factor that kept the lid on any further gains in the currency pair. 

As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.1882 and consolidates in the range between the 1.1856 – 1.1883. However, traders are cautious about placing any strong position ahead of German PMI. Moving on, the currency pair will likely put further bids if the preliminary German and Eurozone Markit manufacturing, services and composite PMI data for August blow past expectations on the day, this, in turn, bolstering hopes for faster economic recovery. On the contrary, the said, EUR/USD’ currency pair may face losses and revisit Thursday’s low of 1.18 if the German and Eurozone data prints below estimates. 

However, this data is scheduled to release at 07:30 GMT, and it is anticipated that German Manufacturing PMI increased to 52.5 from July’s 51. But, the progress pace in the activity is expected to have increased in August. Likewise, the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI is anticipated to increase to 52.9 from 51.8. Thus, the above-forecast data will fuel recovery hopes and decrease the case for further monetary stimulus from the European Central Bank. 

On the flip side, the data published by the U.S. showed that 1.106 million Americans declared unemployment benefits during the previous week, exceeding the anticipated 925,000 claims and last Thursday’s 971,000 figure. As a result, the U.S. dollar failed to maintain its previous Fed-gains and edged lower. 

In the meantime, the U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi stated, This time seems not right for a smaller coronavirus relief bill.” The Democrat earlier showed a willingness to cut the aid package amount demand in half to renew hopes of America’s much-awaited stimulus. But as of now, the uncertainty remains on the cards amid the policymaker’s differences.

As in result, the broad-based U.S. dollar reported losses on the day as the possibility of the U.S. Congress agreeing to a fiscal stimulus bill this month has weakened amid political differences, which eventually destroyed hopes for a quick U.S. economic recovery. As well as, the doubts over the U.S. economy recover further fueled after the dismal US Jobs data. However, the losses in the U.S. dollar helped the currency pair to stay higher. Whereas, the U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the USD against a bucket of other currencies was down, inching down 0.09% to 92.692 by 10:13 PM ET (3:13 AM GMT).

At the coronavirus front, the figures of coronavirus cases increasing day by day. Whereas, the total number of cases crossed more than 231,284 figures so far, as per the report of German disease and epidemic control center, Robert Koch Institute (RKI). Although, these fears have been playing a negative role to cap further gains in the currency pair.

The market traders will keep their eyes on the German and Eurozone Markit manufacturing, services, and composite PMI Data. As well as, the headlines concerning the US COVID-19 aid package, virus figures, and Sino-American trade can also impact the pair’s movement.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.1817 1.1843 1.1884
1.1775 1.1911
1.1749 1.1952

 EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD pair has violated the sideways range of 1.1853 to 1.1830, and now it’s heading higher towards the next technical resistance level of 1.1915 level. On the lower side, the EUR/USD is likely to gain support at the 1.1860 level. Below 1.1860, the next support is likely to be found around the 1.1832 level. The bullish bias remains dominant today.

  


GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.32135 after placing a high of 1.32246 and a low of 1.30642. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. The Pound continued its strength against the U.S. dollar on Thursday amid increased hopes that the U.K. and E.U. will find a breakthrough in the latest round of post-Brexit talks that will conclude on Friday.

Few investors were betting that both sides will be able to find common ground on the key sticking issues, including access to British fishing waters and the level playing field rules, as the latest round of talks is set to end on Friday. The level playing field rules consist of a set of standard rules to ensure firms in the U.K. and E.U. compete on an equal footing, and Britain has been arguing against it.

The rise in GBP/USD pair on Thursday was followed by the increased optimism around the Brexit talks and the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness amid poor than expected U.S. jobless claims.

Investor’s focus has now shifted more towards the final round of Brexit talks in September, to see whether a deal could be reached. E.U. Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier has said that an agreement should be agreed by October to allow the E.U. to ratify the deal.

It has already clear that if no deal was agreed between U.K. and E.U., then U.K. will follow the WTO terms, which will be harsh than the current trade agreement that will lapse at the end of Brexit transition period on December 31.

However, earlier Prime Minister Boris Johnson decided against extending the transition period beyond the end of 2020 and signaled optimism that a deal could be reached by the fall, it triggered bullish momentum in the GBP/USD pair.

On the U.S. front, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index declined to 17.2 from the expected 21.0 and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The Unemployment Claims from last week also rose to 1106K from the expected 930K and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The weak U.S. dollar added gains in the GBP/USD pair and closed the day with a strong bullish candle.

On Friday, the Retail Sales and Public Net Borrowings from Britain, along with the Consumer Confidence and Manufacturing & Services PMI data, will release that will impact on GBP/USD pair. The more important release will be the result of the latest Brexit talks with E.U. that will strongly impact the GBP/USD pair. From the U.S. side, the Flash manufacturing & Services PMI data will remain under focus by investors.

 Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.3108 1.3167 1.3271
1.3005 1.3329
1.2946 1.3433

 GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On Friday, the GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.3250 level, and the pair was trading in between an ascending triangle pattern that has now been violated. The triangle pattern was extending resistance at 1.3125 level, and above this, the next resistance is likely to be found around 1.3267 level. At the same time, the support stays at 1.3186 and 1.3137 level. Bullish bias seems dominant today.

  


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 106.111 after placing a high of 106.150 and 105.101. Overall the movement of the USD/JPY pair remained bullish throughout the day. After falling for three consecutive days, the USD/JPY pair rose sharply and reached above 106.00 level on Wednesday amid broad-based U.S. dollar strength. 

The FOMC minutes of the July meeting revealed that policymakers supported cap bond yields and made it unlikely for the Fed to introduce yield curve control in September. In response to Fed minutes, the U.S. Dollar Index rose above 93 levels, and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose about 0.9% and supported the U.S. dollar that ultimately gave strength to USD/JPY pair on Wednesday.

The sharp rally in USD/JPY was also supported by the comments of a senior Trump administration official who said that a new stimulus relief bill of small amount than $1 trillion or $3 trillion could be agreed upon and provide strength to the economy. He proposed a new bill of $500 billion as the previously expected stimulus bills proposed by Republicans & Democrats was failed to reach a consensus. This new bill also raised hopes and supported the U.S. dollar that pushed USD/JPY prices further on the upside.

On the data front, at 04:50 GMT, the Core Machinery Orders in June from Japan declined to -7.6% from the previous 1.7% and fell short of the expected 2.1% and weighed on Japanese Yen that added strength to the advancing USDJPY pair. Whereas, the Trade Balance from Japan showed a deficit of -0.03T against the forecasted -0.44T and the previous -0.41T and supported Japanese Yen.

On the other hand, the US-China relations were further dented after Donald Trump revealed the main reason behind the delay in review meetings between U.S. & Chinese officials on August 15 on Wednesday. According to Trump, he was furious over Beijing’s handling of coronavirus situations and disturbing the global economy, and that was the reason he canceled the review meeting. He said that he did not want to meet China for now.

The negative statement a day after blacklisting the Chinese telecom Huawei group in America escalated the tensions further and weighed on risk sentiment. This helped the U.S. dollar gain strength against its safe-haven status and raised the USD/JPY pair in the market.

Mark Meadows, the White House Chief of Staff, informed on Wednesday that no new high-level talks were rescheduled between the U.S. & China as two sides were already in touch regarding the implementation of the phase-one trade deal. This raised the risk sentiment and weighed on Japanese Yen that ultimately added gains in USD/JPY pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
105.6200 105.9200 106.1000
105.4300 106.4100
105.1300 106.5900

 

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY has violated the upward trendline support level of 106.345, as it fell sharply in the wake of increased safe-haven appeal in the market. At the movement, the USD/JPY pair is holding below 50 periods EMA, while the RSI and MACD are in support of bearish trend. The recent candle is closing above 105.344 level, suggesting strong odds of bullish correction until 106. However, the violation of 106 can lead to USD/JPY prices towards the 104.600 support level. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Basics

Signs That You Are Ready To Trade Live

Trading on a live account and doing it well is the ultimate goal of many traders, well apart from the dream of owning a private yet of course. There are however a number of different things that you need to consider before you can think about going live, so we have come up with a number of different signs that point to the fact that you are ready to go live and to trade with your real money in order to start working towards that financial goal that you are looking for.

Are you consistently making a profit?

People often get a little confused when it comes to being profitable and winning. When we talk about being consistently profitable it does not mean that you need to win every trade, in fact, many traders lose more trades than they win but still remain profitable overall thanks to their strategy and risk management plans. We need to make it clear that losing is a major part of trading and is not avoidable at all.

If your strategy is set up correctly then it really doesn’t matter too much if you have lost a trade or two the previous week, it does not mean that your strategy doesn’t work and it certainly does not mean that you are not a good trader. What you should be focusing instead is continuing with your strategy in order to find some new higher probability trading setups for future trades, you should also come up with strategies and risk management plans that can help to minimise the losses that you incur with a losing trade and maximise the profits that you make with a winning trade.

You need to monitor your profitability over a long period of time, most like to say six months, once you have done this and you have remained consistently profitable over that sort of period of time, it can be a great sign and indicator that you may well be ready to go and move onto a live trading account.

Do you have clear risk management plans in place?

If you ask 100 traders what the most important part of trading is, you will probably find that quite a few of them will tell you that it is risk management, and for good reason. Proper risk management is one of the major things that stands between you losing a little with a losing trade or losing your entire account. You need to ensure that before you even think about going onto a live account that you have a clear cut risk management plan that you are consistently following and stick to it at all times. It is relevant that you stick to it, as the moment that you deviate from it, the overall profitability of your trading strategy will shift and this can have a detrimental effect on your overall trading.

So before you consider going live, ensure that you have a set of rules for your risk management set up. Something that is easy for you to follow and also easy for you to stick to, if you are finding it difficult to always follow it, then you may need to think about potentially changing a few things so that you can. If you have this setup and you are able to stick with it, then this may be another sign indicating that you are ready to move onto a live account.

Do you panic when a trade is losing?

Are you able to keep your cool when a trade is going the wrong way? If so then you are on the right track. If you do still panic then you may want to think about how much you are investing and whether or not you are risking and investing a little too much. It’s not an easy thing to do, to keep things cool when you can see your money going down, but it is something that you will need to get used to because it is going to happen a lot. In order to get around this, create a trading plan, a detailed one which includes your risk management plan and this will help you to keep focused and to have a broader view of how things are going, rather than just concentrating on the current trade. Once you are able to stay cool even with those losing trades, that is a sign that you may be ready to go into some live trading.

Do you still take your losses hard?

A loss is never seen as a good thing (unless you can learn from it) but you need to look at how you take these losses. Does it really upset you? Does it make you want to win back the money? Or are you simply able to shrug it off and move onto the next trade? If it is the latter, then you may be ready to move onto some live trading. If you are still struggling with losses you need to find out why, whether you are simply risking too much or for some, trading is just not for them, especially if they are so risk-averse. As soon as you are able to take them well, you can tick this off as a sign that you are ready to progress.

You have found the right broker.

For many, finding the right broker is easy, because they do not have many requirements, but for others, it can be a long process to find the one that is right for you. Before you go live, you need to be sure that you are happy with the one that you are using, afterall you are going to be depositing some of your hard-earned money into it. You need to ensure that you are happy with the spreads, the commissions, and the slippage that may occur. You should also ensure that you have spoken to the support team and that the appropriate deposit and withdrawal methods are available. Only deposit your funds into an account that you are actually happy with, if you have friends already using one that can vouch for it, then that is even better. Just be careful of the not so friendly ones that are just after your money.

So those are a few things to think about, if you are able to tick them all off then it is a good sign that indicates that you may well be ready to head out into the big world of live trading. Remember to take your time, there is no rush to get there, but once you do, stick to what you were doing in the demo account, do not get carried away and you should be able to become a profitable trader.

Categories
Forex Basics

The Importance Of Trading Statements

A trading statement may sound like a strange phrase, it can give the impression of simply stating trading, which is not exactly what we had in mind. Instead, a trading statement should be your overall target and goal for your trading.

Think about business, most of them were set up with a mission in mind, something that they wanted to chive. Your trading statement is set up in very much the same way. It should detail exactly what your overall aim is with your trading, for some this may be simple, others it may be complex, but it should be kept short to a single statement, something that you can always refer back to as the reason why you started trading in the first place.

Before we get into it too much, let’s take a look at some of the mission statements that are out there from various businesses and companies around the world.

Google: “To organize the world’s information and make it universally accessible and useful.”

Microsoft: “to empower every person and every organization on the planet to achieve more. We strive to create local opportunity, growth, and impact in every country around the world.”

Amazon: “We aim to be Earth’s most customer-centric company. Our mission is to continually raise the bar of the customer experience by using the internet and technology to help consumers find, discover and buy anything, and empower businesses and content creators to maximise their success.”

ASDA: “At Asda, our mission is to be the most trusted retailer. We help our customers to ‘Save money. Live better’. Learn how helping our customers to live better means Asda helps the planet too.”

As you can see, the mission outlines what their overall goal is, it helps to describe the organisation’s broad view for their future and the sort of image and reputation that they will be aiming for. More often than not it will be a very broad statement, not giving details on how it will be achieved or the steps along the way, just the overall image and endpoint that is desired.

So how can this be brought into the trading world and how exactly will you be able to make a trading mission statement of your own?

The first thing that you need to think about is exactly what you want to achieve from trading. Some people want to be able to quit their job, others just want a little bit of extra money, this will be the starting point of your mission statement. So have a think, if you wish to quit your job and to trade full time, have that as your main mission, if you just want an extra $100 per month, then set that as your mission, everything that you do from this point onwards will be to try and achieve these targets and to reach your mission’s goal.

Your mission needs to be realistic, there is no point setting a mission statement of being a billionaire through trading, it just isn’t going to happen. You need to set it to a realistic level, if you want to turn your balance of $1000 into a balance of $10,000 or $50,000 then these are more achievable targets, they may seem a long way off and that is not necessarily a bad thing as it gives you something o really aim for and to aim for it for a long time to come, keeping you focused on that target. Just remember that once you hit that target you will need to keep yourself there and not to then slip away again.

Once you have worked out what your trading statement is, you need to get it printed out and put up on the wall. This will then be a constant reminder of what it is that you wish to achieve. It needs to be there as a constant reminder so it needs to always be there for you to refer back to.

It is also important to understand that once you have hit your mission or that you are at the level that you want, you do not let things slip. You need to be able to maintain it, if you simply hit the target of the mission and then let it drop off, you are not achieving your goal, so hit it and keep it, this is the main aim of the mission, to maintain it for as long as possible, as soon as it falls, the mission has ended and it will be quite hard to then get back to it again.

So remember your mission statement should be your overall aim, something that you wish to achieve and then maintain, so have a think about yours, make sure it is realistic, and then get working towards it.

Categories
Forex Psychology

The Pressures Of Forex Trading

Pressure, the incredibly strong feeling of dread or stress that can come over you when doing pretty much anything when there is something on the line. In regards to trading, that something is your account balance. This is even more apparent if you are currently trading as your full-time job and you are counting on it for paying things like your bills or to purchase your weekly shopping. Pressure can come from both within and from outside sources, so let’s take a little look at the sort of things that can cause pressure and the effects that this can have on both you and your trading abilities.

Have a little think about the sorts of things that cause you to feel pressure, normally it would be some sort of deadline that you need to meet, maybe you are nowhere near making it. This same pressure can come with trading, e briefly touched on the fact that you may be relying on the money that you will make in order to pay your bills or purchase your weekly shop, this sort of pressure can lead you to making rash trading decisions and making additional risky trades that are outside of your trading plan, simply so you can make enough to survive. This sort of pressure is not good at all, the desperation to make enough will make you throw out all caution and will ultimately cause you to lose, which in turn will increase the pressure further.

There is also the sort of pressure that you can put on yourself, if you consider yourself to be a perfectionist, every single loss that you take will be a little hit to your ego and will increase the amount of stress and pressure that you will be putting on yourself in order to do better. There is also the pressure of trading money that you may actually need, the old saying of not trading what you can’t afford to lose is a very honest and realistic approach, as soon as you start to trade with money you need, an incredible amount of pressure will come over you, knowing that if you lose it, you could be struggling in life for quite a while.

Pushing yourself to learn more, and to achieve more can put some unwanted pressure on yourself, there are no time limits, the markets aren’t going anywhere. Take your time to learn, don’t put these unnecessary stresses on yourself, there is no need to and it is completely self-destructive.

These pressures are often caused by some sort of decision that we made at one point in time when it comes to out trading, whether we deposited too much, our trades are using too much risk or we took the step to going full time too soon. It is important to think about each decision that you make, it is all well and good thinking that you will be able to deal with the pressure when it comes, but the best course of action that you can take is to avoid bringing the pressure down on you in the first place, if you can manage to do that, then you won’t have to deal with the crippling effects that pressure can have on someone.

Categories
Forex Psychology

Self-Motivation and Self-Discipline In Trading

Motivation and discipline, some incredibly important traits that you need to have in order to be a successful trader. You often hear that trading can be quite a demoralising experience, especially when things aren’t quite going to plan, so we are going to look at some of the reasons why you need to be able to self-motivate and self-discipline yourself and different ways that you could potentially go about doing it.

Firstly, let’s look at why motivation is so important. Motivation is defined as “a reason or reasons for acting or behaving in a particular way.”. This is all based around the way that you behave, someone with low levels of motivation will be a lot slower, less engaged, and offer much lower levels of productivity to someone who is highly motivated, putting in a lot of work, getting things done quickly and ultimately enjoying what it is that they are doing.

Motivation can be a very powerful feeling and something that can make you either successful or unsuccessful. The problem with trading is that you are all by yourself, this means that there is no one else around to motivate you. In a regular job (most not all), there will be a manager or a team leader around, one of the jobs that they have been employed to do is to help motivate those around them, to motivate their team to work hard. Without that person around, it is now down to you to do that job for yourself, and this can quite often be a lot harder to do than it is to say.

Think about the ways that you can motivate yourself, what is it that gets you going? For some, it is simply the idea that they can make some money at the end of it, but this is more of a motivational goal, rather than a way of keeping yourself motivated. When you have been at the computer for a number of hours, not much has happened or you have read over some new learning for the third time. It’s boring, you want to stop, how’d you motivate yourself to carry on?

People do this in entirely different ways and it will work differently for different people. Something that you may want to try is to set yourself little goals, these can be daily, weekly or monthly targets that you want to meet. Should you achieve them, then reward yourself with a little something extra, an extra cake, those trainers you wanted, it could be anything but it must be something that you desire, and it must be something that you are willing to go without should you not achieve those targets.

Other ways of increasing your motivational levels are to add a little bit of variety into your learning and your trading, and not to pressure yourself into always be trading. Of course, that will be boring and will cause your productivity levels to really drop, instead, try to change things up, try not to do the same thing for more than one day or two days in a row. This will keep things fresh and you will continue to learn and to be productive in your trading. It can also be important to talk to others, being by yourself lonely and this can bore even the most motivated of people. It is important that you manage to get out and talk to others, talk about anything. It doesn’t need to be just about trading, this interaction can break up the monotony of trading.

We talked about speaking to others. If we take this a ste[p further, a good way of motivating yourself can be by talking with other traders, people who are going through the same thing as you. You can talk about your plans, your results and compare how people are getting on. This can go one of two ways and it will depend on your personality as to whether this is a good idea. If you decide to compare your results with others and you are doing well, this can motivate you to keep working hard. However, if you see your results and you are not doing as well as the majority of others it can either cause you to lose a lot of your motivation as you feel that you are not doing as well, or it can motivate you to work hard to achieve the same as them. This Is entirely down to your own personality, if you are the sort of person to become disheartened then we would suggest not comparing results. If you are the sort of person where it drives you to work harder, then it can be a fantastic motivation builder

So we know a bit about motivation, but what about discipline? Discipline is defined as “the practice of training people to obey rules or a code of behaviour, using punishment to correct disobedience.”. This is often another aspect of a job that is given to a manager or a team leader, but trading by yourself, you are required to take on this role and need to have the ability to discipline yourself should you do something wrong or should your performance levels drop.

When you are working for someone they will be there monitoring your progress and the work that you are doing, trading at home, you do not have someone there to do that, so you will need to do it for yourself. This can be far harder than it seems, as many people automatically assume that they are doing better than they actually are, in fact, the majority of people feel that they are doing far better than they actually are.

The first thing that you are going to need to do is to work out how you are able to assess how well you are doing, this can be done in a number of different ways. Initially, you will need to set some targets and goals that you want to achieve, these can then be used as the overall target that you will measure your progress and performance on. They need to be realistic and achievable, as setting targets too high, will only result in you missing the and then feeling demotivated.

You will also need to think of some potential sanctions should you not be performing to the standard that you feel that you should be or if you are falling far short from your targets. This could simply be something like putting $10 into a saving pot that you can only access once you reach your goals, or that you don’t get that slice of cake that you usually have after a meal, this is all about ensuring that you keep your performance levels up. It can be very difficult to self-discipline yourself.

While what we are talking about is what you do yourself, if you are living with a family member, you could ask them to keep track of your targets and to see how you are getting on it’s not quite self-discipline but it works well for those that are not able to control and discipline themselves.

Self-motivating and self-disciplining is not an easy task and can be very difficult for a lot of people. However, getting it right can make working by yourself and trading by yourself very rewarding and can build up your abilities as an individual and as a leader. If you have what it takes then it can create a fantastic at home trading career.

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Beginners Forex Education Forex Trade Types

Let’s Discuss Forex Scalping Considerations

You may have been told in the past that trading is a game of probabilities, and this is true when aligning a lot of things into account, what it does not mean however is that placing a lot of small trades quickly will give you the probability of profits.

Newer traders are now coming across scalping, a method of looking to take just one or two pips out of the markets quickly, usually along some sort of trend or pullback, it can be a powerful strategy, and sometimes trades can stay open for a matter of seconds only. It can also make vast amounts of money, so why aren’t we all doing it? We aren’t all doing it because it takes patience, a lot of risk management and most importantly, it can go horribly, horribly wrong if you do not know what you are doing. So, let’s look at a few things you need to consider before you start scalp trading.

Costs

Each broker that you see will have its own payment structure, some of them have it as an additional spread on the trades, others will charge a commission. You need to know exactly how your broker will be adding these costs to your trade. Scalping is all about taking small profits from lots of trades, if your broker is adding an extra pip on top of the natural spreads and you take a 1 pip profit, then how exactly are you benefiting? In fact, you may be making a small loss, the same can go for commissions, if you are using a broker with an added $10 per lot traded, then it may not be worth it at all, however, if you commission of $2 per lot treaded then it may be far more valuable to scalp with them. Just remember t outlook at both the commission and the spreads, combine the costs to see whether or not it is worth scalping with that broker.

Capital Requirements

How much capital do you have? You find a broker that offers you an entry point of $10, it is fantastic that they are allowing you to open an account with such a small amount and this makes it very accessible. However, you will struggle to have any sort of risk management or money management plans in place with such a small amount. You cannot go into forex thinking you will turn that $10 into $1,000,000 with small trades. Not only will the profits be very small but you also need to think of the margin requirements of trading, you may get to a point where you cannot actually open any more trades due to your margin levels which can also result in blowing (losing all money in an account) an account.

Psychology issues

Traders who trade short term trades can often be under a lot more stress than those that go for longer trades, it is a much more fast-paced affair when scalping, having to quickly analyse, work out positions, place trades and then maintain them. Due to this, you need to ensure that your risk management is pretty solid and consistent before trading any real money, putting on these quick-fire trades can also result in more losses than you may see on a longer-term trading account, but that is a part of scalping, if you cannot handle them, you should not be attempting it.

Strategies

There are a number of different strategies for scalping, some are following trends, some are looking for breakouts, there are plenty of them out there. You need to get one that suits your own style and preferences. If you like trends, there is no point in trying to trade breakouts and vice versa. Finding the strategy along with the indicators that suit your own style is vital, no one has funt reading someone else’s’ strategy.

So those are a few of the considerations to take on board before you start scalping, there is no doubt that it can be profitable. In fact, it can be very profitable and satisfying as the trades are ina nd out quickly, but it takes a lot of practice and if the risk management in place is not solid and consistent, it can also be very expensive.

Categories
Beginners Forex Education Forex Basics

Should Forex Trading Be Fun?

There are a number of different arguments going around as to whether trading should be fun, some seem to think that you should be concentrating and being serious the whole time, others feel that you need to enjoy something that you are going to be a lot of. There are pros and cons to both of those arguments and the truth is that there are times when it should be fun, and times when it should be taken seriously. So when do you know when you should be doing what and should you be having fun when trading?

There are a number of different stages to trading and the development of a plan and your trading mentality, these different stages often have different emotions that come with them. If we look at when you just started out, you are probably having a lot more fun, things are new to you, they are exciting, so you want to enjoy this stage in your trading career. It is a time when you are able to experiment in order to find what works for you, and this experimentation can be the most fun that you will have with trading, there are far fewer rules, and you are free to do what you want. However, it is important that you do not get carried away with it, and you should certainly be doing this on a demo account and nota live account.

This is also the stage when you may start to look for some guidance, how this goes will depend entirely on the sort of trainer or mentor that you decide to use. There Are some that are very light-hearted, allowing for mistakes and having fun and banter along the way, then there are the more serious ones, they are not there to have fun, they are there to make money and will expect you to have the same mentality. If you chose this sort of trainer then you will be expected to work hard and not simply mess about finding your feet.

This brings us to the second phase of your trading planning. This is where you are going to be creating your actual plan, for many this is the least fun and least exciting part of trading, yet others find it fascinating as this is going to define everything that you will be doing going forward. This is where there needs to be a lot more focus, you need to be able to decide with some conviction what you are going to be doing, messing about and just having fun in this stage could cause a lot of issues in the future, so you will need to buckle down, even if it does feel a little boring and tedious to do.

So the final stage of your trading plan and mindset is basically looking to always improve and to master your own strategy while working on this, it will take a lot of hard work, there will be many ups and downs, but what is important is that you remain consistent and that you develop discipline in order to remain on track and hopefully profitable. At this stage of your trading career, it won’t necessarily be the most exciting or the most fun, you will be going through a routine, which a lot of people often find a little boring, so while the trading may not be fun, the results certainly can be.

When we talk about results, we are of course referring to the potential profits that you can now be made using these on things that bring you happiness or to pay off bills which gives you some financial freedom. This is the part of trading that most enjoy the most and this is the result of your hard work beforehand. All those not so fun things you had to do and not so fun nights are finally starting to pay off and you will be able to have some fun with your trading.

Of course, for many, the actual trading is not necessarily fun, just the rewards are. However, for many traders, the actual trading can also be a great aspect to it, if this is you, then trading could be the perfect thing for you. If you enjoy the hard work, the numbers, and the creation of a strategy, then trading certainly can be all fun for you, but you still need to understand that there will be times where you need to step away from the fun and to be a little more serious.

One way that you can look at trading is in a similar way that you do to an elite athlete, they are required to put in a lot of work, a lot of work that may not actually be that enjoyable, while some athletes may like running laps, many do not, but hey know that they are required to do it if they want to be the best and if they want to make their living. Trading is much the same, you need to put that work in, you need to practice your strategy over and over until you have perfected it, but once you have done that, you will begin to see the rewards and it will all be worth it and you will finally begin to enjoy your trading.

Categories
Forex Stop-loss & argets

Exit Indicators: When to Exit a Trade

While forex traders usually have a number of practical questions regarding indicators and other useful tools to help them make a profit, some of them rarely think of developing a stable strategy that will function as the foundation for growing as a trader in this market. Instead of adopting a comprehensive plan on how to be better traders, some forex enthusiasts seem to be more interested in outside factors and tips that will help them get a lucky win in no time. Since time is money, as they say, it is also an impotent element in trading in the fiat market on quite a few levels, which is why will be dealing with the question of what the best time to exit a trade is.

How long a person should hold onto a trade is certainly one of the key topics due to the fact that acquiring a sense of a timely reaction and knowledge on when to exit is what will preserve your finances after all. While the ability to stop trading on time may seem easy to acquire, it in fact requires traders to possess the key tools and skills that can allow this to happen. Of course, to offer a detailed and informative response, and draw some constructive conclusions on the way, we must strive to see the bigger picture and objectively assess the situation from all angles, looking into all the layers of this matter.

In order to manage time, the first foundation tier you should be looking to build is a proper algorithm, which will consist of several indicators that will signal you to take action at specific times during each trade. Some of the most successful traders in this market use a six-piece toolbox, consisting of several indicators such as ATR, a confirmation indicator, and an exit indicator. The last one, the exit indicator, is an extremely valuable asset to your trading kit because having an indicator that can tell you when to stop trading is what will safeguard you from failure while still allowing you to enjoy some lucrative trades. Such an indicator can therefore also signal you to exit bad trades on time without letting you destroy your finances. Finding the right exit indicator is what many professional traders advise other market dwellers to focus on and they keep stressing the fact that these indicators should be an essential part of an algorithm every trader should aim to make.

Secondly, it is crucial that you ask yourself what kind of trader you are. If you are a timid trader who fears following the momentum in a trade, you are also the one who runs away as quickly as possible for the fear or crashing down, which prevents you from seizing the moment and rising to the professional level. You could also be a reversal trader and one of many who cannot thus exploit this market’s full potential, either because of inexperience or due to mistaking forex for another market such as the stock one.

Reversal traders more often than not fail to grasp the importance of exiting a trade before things get really ugly as they go too deep trying to call reversals without understanding how trading currencies essentially works. This group of individuals has yet to learn that only once they exit the trade will the big banks redirect the prices and decide on their immediate future, which naturally leads to the conclusion that trend trading is every trader’s best possible strategy and means to enter profitable trades.

Apart from finding a good exit indicator that will help traders get out just in time, the topic of strategy is then equally vital as it entails designing a comprehensive plan that serves to protect them and guide them throughout different trading stages. Calling trends should be the first idea based on which a trader can start planning how to go about future trades, which is why it is intricately connected to today’s question of when to exit.

The most prominent figures in this market often indicate how important it is to decide on when exactly a trader would want to finalize a trade, and some of the advice centers around the idea of taking half of the trades off after a price hits a certain point and upon gaining a specific number of pips. Therefore, traders can end a trade when a price hits the break-even point, the stop loss, or the trailing stop loss or upon receiving a signal from the exit indicator. Simply put, you should keep trading as long as a trend lasts and your best friend here is the algorithm you have worked to build, including an exit indicator, as well as the plan which outlines how you will manage a trade you are already in.

An immediately following question is what a really good exit indicator does. To begin with, you should bear in mind that a tool providing such useful insight will probably not be the zero-cross indicator. However, in terms of actions and functions, it should be able to provide you with two-fold assistance. You will firstly want your exit indicator not to be too rigid, preventing you from following the momentum and using the power of big trends, which will in effect help bring you profit. Since prices oscillate and they also have retracements, you should not be looking for an indicator that will cut you short before you get the chance to get as much money as you can.

As some indicators function precisely in this manner, they push you out on some of the first retracements you come across and make your exit way too early. In comparison, more often than not, a good indicator should let you end a trade before a price drops and hits your trailing stop. In addition, to be further aware of how to use an indicator to assess the best time to stop trading, you should keep in mind that exiting a trade at the very top or bottom is never recommended. Your goal should always be to get as close to either of the two extremes, which should still bring you a substantial amount of pips.

The next step in growing as a trader and understanding when to exit certainly includes the relevance of the concept of time in building a trading mindset. Whether you are a beginner or a professional, you must already know that developing an algorithm and finding the tools which lead to profitable outcomes takes time. Some of the best trades professionals did also lasted for a period of two months even, so learning how to be patient and practicing this virtue in various aspects of trading will relieve the tension of asking the question of how long to trade. Time alone is of no importance, but it is one of the central notions of building trading psychology.

Learning requires persistence and diligence as much as withstanding some of the impulses to exit a trade before time. You may also need time not just to discover a good exit indicator, but also to test how it can function better after making some settings adjustments. Instant gratification will undoubtedly put you in the same category of people recklessly losing unbelievable amounts of money at once. All in all, instead of exhibiting such a casino player mentality, to gain satisfaction and amass a fortune, you truly need to invest in growing a more sustainable approach and set your priorities straight.

Categories
Forex Fundamental Analysis

What Should You Know About ‘Job Vacancies’ as a Macro Economic Indicator

Introduction

Job vacancies are a fundamental macroeconomic indicator. This article defines in detail what job vacancies are and further shows how the job vacancies affect the economy of a given country, and consequently, its currency.

What are Job Vacancies

Job vacancies are the number of new gainful employment positions that are created within an economy at a given point in time. In order to establish the number of job vacancies, surveys are usually done on employers about their businesses, recruitment, and job openings.

Job vacancies are considered if: there is a specific open position with work available for it; the job could commence within 30 days of advertisement whether or not a suitable candidate is hired, and the employers are actively recruiting workers for that particular job.

Purpose of Job Vacancies Statistics

The job vacancies statistics are meant to provide information about the level and structure of labor demand. The job vacancies statistics indicate the unfulfilled demand for labor and the desirable skills that are sought by the employers within an economy. As such, the job vacancies statistics provide the central banks and governments with an opportunity to analyze the trends in the labor market. The statistics can also be used to assess the structural analysis of the economy in terms of business cycles.

Job Vacancies as an Economic Indicator

Employers within an economy are continually looking to hire new workers to fill positions in their organizations. As such, job vacancies are a leading macroeconomic indicator of unemployment and employment rates. Thus, the more the job vacancies are available, the more the number of people who stand a chance to be gainfully employed and thus, leading to a reduction in the unemployment rate.

Conversely, fewer job vacancies imply that fewer people seeking employment get to be gainfully employed hence low employment rate in the economy. Thus, higher job vacancies signify an expanding economy while a reduction in the job vacancies implies that the economy is contracting or heading for a full-employment level. In this case, higher job vacancies result in appreciating the strength of a country’s currency while lower than expected job vacancies result in a drop in the currency value.

The statistics on job vacancies can also be used in the analysis of business cycles. The number of job vacancies is expected to be on a constant increase during periods of expansion because businesses are hiring more workers due to increased economic activities. At peak periods, the number of job vacancies is marginally decreased and remain plateaued since most businesses have achieved optimal operations. During the periods of contraction, the number of job vacancies is expected to be on a constant decrease due to a rapid reduction in the economic activity within a country, hence lower GDP output.

Thus, the statistics on job vacancies can be accurately used to predict the periods of economic boom and recessions. During the global economic crisis, the number of job vacancies in the US decreased from 4.4 mn in the 1st quarter of 2008 to 2.45 million in the fourth quarter of 2019, a period of recession. In the recovery period, the number of job vacancies increased from 2.72 million in the first quarter of 2010 to 4.92 million in the fourth quarter of 2014.

How Job Vacancies Affect the Economy

By itself, job vacancies signify the level of economic activity within an economy. A higher and increasing number of job vacancies signify that the economic activities within a country are increasing hence the need for more workers. Similarly, a constant reduction in the number of job vacancies available implies that the economic activities in a country are cooling down, hence the need for fewer workers. More so, a reduction or plateauing in the number of job vacancies available could imply that the economy is heading for full employment.

Graph: 2019 January to December Scatter plot of US Job Vacancies and Real GDP.

Source: OECD Statistics and US BEA

As seen from the above scatter plot, from January 2019 to December 2019, there was a direct positive correlation between the change in the job vacancies in the US and the change in real GDP.

Job Vacancies and Impact on the Currency

As already discussed, job vacancies serve as a leading indicator for employment and unemployment levels. An increasing number of job vacancies implies that unemployment levels are bound to fall drastically. A steep fall in the unemployment rate, which is accompanied by a full rate of employment will result in higher inflation. The higher inflation is because the employers are competing to hire workers hence pushing up the wages at a faster rate. Increased rates of inflation will trigger the government and central banks to employ contractionary monetary policies aimed at keeping the inflation rate in check.

When the central banks increase the interest rate, it is aimed at reducing the rate of inflation by making borrowing expensive while encouraging the culture of savings. Thus, for forex market traders, they can anticipate a hike in the interest rate levels when there is a consistent increase in the number of job vacancies. The higher interest rate has the effect of increasing a country’s currency valuation.

Conversely, a constant reduction in the number of job vacancies, which comes after a period of a sustained increase in the total number of job vacancies, implies that an overheated economy is cooling down. An overheated economy is characterized by a prolonged period of positive economic development and higher levels of inflation brought about by increased wealth generation.

Thus, after the government has employed contractionary policies following the overheating of an economy, it can consequently be expected that this period will be accompanied by asset bubbles and an increase in the prices of assets. Higher wages means that most employers may not be able to hire more workers and let go of some of the existing employees, resulting in a sustained period of lower job vacancies.

The economy can be said to have plateaued and headed for a recession. For forex traders, a falling number of job vacancies could signify an impending dovish monetary policy meant to stimulate the economy and prevent excessive deflation. The dovish policies have a negative effect on a country’s currency.

How Job Vacancies News Release Affects The Price Charts

Although considered a low impact indicator, forex traders need to understand how job vacancies release impacts the price action. In the US, the job vacancies report is published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics by conducting Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).

JOLTS gives data on job openings, hires, and separations. The JOLTS report is released monthly about 40 days after the month ends. The latest, expected, and all historical figures are published on the Forex Factory website. The most recent release one can be found here. Job vacancies are advertised positions yet to be filled by the final business day of the month. A more in-depth review of the JOLTS numbers can be found at the Bureau of Labor Statistics website.

Below is a screengrab of the Forex Factory website. On the right, we can see a legend that indicates the level of impact the Fundamental Indicator has on the corresponding currency.

The snapshot below shows the change in the JOLTS numbers. In the latest release, the number of job openings increased on a month on month between May and June 2020 from 5.37 million to 5.89 million. The increase was more than the 5.30 million forecasted by analysts.

Now, let’s understand how this news release impacted the Forex price charts.

EUR/USD: Before JOLTS release August 10, 2020

As seen on the chart above, we have plotted a 20-period moving average on the EUR/USD chart, which shows that the pair is on a strong downtrend. The steady downtrend is also evident from the fact that the candlesticks are just below the Moving Average. On the 15 minute timeframe before the release, between 1100 and 1330 GMT, the market is on a constant uptrend. This uptrend can also be observed in AUD/USD and NZD/USD pairs, as shown by the charts below.

AUD/USD: Before JOLTS release August 10, 2020

NZD/USD: Before JOLTS release August 10, 2020

It is evident that in such a period, going “long” in the market offers the best opportunity to take advantage of this short-term uptrend. However, since the general market trend is downward, we highly recommend following this trend.

EUR/USD: After JOLTS release August 10, 2020, 1400 GMT

After the release of the better than expected JOLTS numbers, there is a consistent downtrend on the EUR/USD. The mere increase in the number of job openings triggered the USD strength against other currency pairs. It is worth noting that the release of the JOLTS numbers was strong enough to reverse the immediate uptrend seen immediately before the release.

The same reversal to a downtrend after news release can be observed for the AUD/USD and NZD/USD pairs as well. This trend is shown in the charts below.

AUD/USD: After JOLTS release August 10, 2020, 1400 GMT

NZD/USD: After JOLTS release August 10, 2020, 1400 GMT

The positive job vacancies news had a significant impact on the strength of USD against other currencies. This strength is because the better than expected job openings signify that the US economy is on a recovery path following the effects of the Coronavirus pandemic.

Categories
Forex Basic Strategies

Reliable Way To Make 30-Pips A Day In The Forex Market

Introduction

The 30 pips a day is a trading strategy that is based on market continuation pattern. This strategy is very profitable and has a long history of providing a substantial gain. Therefore, if you can implement this strategy well, you can make a decent profit from the forex market. This strategy is focused on a quick gain from the market; therefore, the currency pair that usually make a fast move is recommended for this strategy.

In this trading strategy, we will use the following elements:

  • 10 EMA and 26 EMA to identify the market direction. The main reason for using the Exponential Moving average over the simple moving average is that it provides the most reliable result in a short timeframe.
  • We will use 5-minute timeframe for trading as our focus is to make a quick gain from a short move.
  • We will implement the strategy in GBPJPY pair as it provides fast move in a short timeframe.

30 Pips a Day Trading System

In this trading strategy, we will consider the trend as an uptrend if the 10 EMA crosses the 26 EMA. Similarly, we will consider the trend as a downtrend if the 10 EMA crosses the 26 EMA. The reason for choosing the GBPJPY pair is that it has a higher daily movement compared to the other major currencies. GBPJPY pair can move 100-200 pips a day while most of the major currency pairs can move 60-100 pips a day.

However, our aim is not to catch every move during the day. Instead, we will focus on a little part of it, like 30 pips. That’s why the name of this trading strategy is 30 pips a day. In this trading strategy, the Potential Trading Zone is significant.

What is the Potential Trading Zone?

It is the zone where we will make trades based on our trading element. It is usually the reversal zone from where the price is likely to reverse from the current direction. Therefore, we will make the buying and selling decision at this zone depending on the current market trend.

In the above example, we can see that the major trend of the currency pair down. Despite the downtrend, the price will move up with a corrective speed, which is a minor counter-trend rally. In the 30 pips a day trading strategy, we will focus on the minor trend reversal movement and wait for the price to return to the major trend.

We can find the same market movement in the uptrend where the price will come down with a corrective speed. Later on, we will focus on the price zone from where the price is likely to resume its major trend.

Sell Setup Using the 30 Pips a Day Trading Strategy

  • Identify the major trend. If the primary trend is down, we will focus on sell trades only.
  • Find the location of price where 10 EMA crosses down the 26 EMA.
  • Do not sell immediately after the crossover. Wait for the price to make a retracement.
  • Enter the sell as soon as the candle crosses the potential trading zone halfway between the 10 and 26 EMA.
  • Stop-loss should be 15-20 pips.
  • Take profit should be 30 pips.

Example of 30 Pips a Day Sell Setup

In the above image, we can see that the 10 EMA crossed below the 26 EMA and moved up. The crossover is the first indication of sell entry. Later on, the trade setup comes as soon as price creates a bearish candle after a bullish rejection.

Buy Setup Using the 30 Pips a Day Trading Strategy

  • Identify the major trend. If the major trend is bullish, we will focus on buy trades only.
  • Find the location of price where 10 EMA crosses above the 26 EMA.
  • Do not buy immediately after the crossover. Wait for the price to make a retracement.
  • Enter the buy as soon as the candle crosses the potential trading zone halfway between the 10 and 26 EMA.
  • Stop-loss should be 15-20 pips.
  • Take profit should be 30 pips.

Example of 30 Pips a Day Buy Setup

In the above image, we can see that the 10 EMA crossed above the 26 EMA and moved down. The crossover is the first indication of buy entry. Later on, the trade setup comes as soon as price creates a bullish candle after a bearish rejection.

Alternative Trading Entry for 30 Pips a Day

  • If you don’t have enough time to manage your trade, you can simply use a pending order.
  • Once the candlestick comes back after the primary crossover, wait for a reversal candle to appear. Later on, place a buy stop or sell stop above or below the reversal candlestick.
  • You can place the stop loss above or below the candle high or low with some buffer. However, you can use the nearest swing points as a stop loss level also. Moreover, to take profit, you can set it to 30 pips.

Pros and Cons of 30 Pips a Day Trading Strategy

Like other trading strategies, 30 pips a day trading strategy has both strength and weakness.

Pros

  • As the GBPJPY pair is very volatile, it is straightforward to make 30 pips daily.
  • In a trending market, this strategy works well.
  • This strategy works well in Asian and London Session.

Cons

Summary

Let’s summarize the 30 pips a day trading strategy:

  • Identify the trending market in the GBPJPY pair.
  • Move to the 5-minute chart and identify a market where 10 EMA crosses the 26 EMA.
  • Wait for correction and enter the trade as soon as market rejects from the potential trading zone.
  • Set stop loss at 15-20 pips and take profit at 30 pips.

In every trading strategy, trade management is an important part. In the forex market, we anticipate the movement of various currency pairs and every pair moves in a different way. Therefore, if you face some consecutive losses, it is better to take a break from trading and enter the trade again as soon as the market starts to move as you expect.

Categories
Forex Risk Management

Why Scaling in Might Be a Bad Idea

If you are already in a winning trade, is there anything else you can do to father navigate its course to your benefit? One of the best techniques in position management used by trading professionals, scaling out, is based on the idea that a trader should withdraw part or half of the money at a particular moment in a winning trade, move the stop loss to break-even, and keep the remainder running until the point when either the trailing stop, exit indicator, or stop loss finally closes the trade. However, what would you do if you faced retracements while going long for example and the price changed direction? Would you put more money in although you are already in the middle of a trade? The answers to all of these questions are closely related to another term – scaling in that, in contrast to scaling out, essentially entails adding another position to an already existing trade. The understanding of this topic is what will help safeguard your trades against some common challenges as well as guide you through a running trade.

If a current trade is doing well and approximately a hundred pips later a retracement occurs, is a trader advised to double down? This question is equally applicable to trades that really take off because it essentially involves doubt about whether anyone should take on more risk. Although the trade in this case is a fruitful one, is investing more money a good or a bad idea? The expert opinion generally advises against entering an additional trade after you are officially in another one. Although some traders may disagree, the facts supporting this standpoint are numerous.

Firstly, if you have developed a system, or working towards designing an algorithm, you probably understand how crucial entering a trade at the best possible time is. A trade that exhibits an unstable and unpredictable behavior 20 or so pips down the line is certainly not the one you should ponder. Traders often feel compelled to make irrational decisions because of the fear of missing out (FOMO). Entering a FOMO trade, however, reveals the psychology of traders who take actions based on emotions, rather than trusting the systems they have worked hard to develop. Such emotion-driven trades inevitably lead to numerous and often repetitive losses, which is the exact opposite of what you need to grow a forex trading account.

As we cannot assume which direction the market is going to take and for how long, we strive to create algorithms on which we can rely. Moreover, since we test out each indicator we use, there should be no fear of trusting a system which has proved to give good results more often than not. Even if you notice some mild changes a while after you entered a new trade, simply allow the system that you built to take care of the trade for you. Therefore, there seems little to no reason why anyone should consider adding on. If such a decision revolves around fear or greed, the prospects of getting far in this market are very low. A trade that appears to be bad right from the start will never render any good results and risking more money at this point would seem like a truly reckless decision leading to a gloomy outcome. Furthermore, with the option of choosing between so many currencies, opting for a pair that cannot bring about any positive results also cannot have a logical explanation.

If you are in a winning trade going long, how would you react if you got another signal from your system? Should you trust your confirmation indicator and take action accordingly? A confirmation indicator signaling you to long is actually telling you that it first went the other way. For example, a zero-cross indicator would give out a signal to go long (above zero) only if it crossed the zero line and went below first. Of course, if this happened, why would you stay in such a trade? As this confirmation indicator told you to short, you actually received a signal to exit (see picture examples below). Although this is not the best option you can find, confirmation indicator can definitely serve as an exit indicator as well, and especially if it is giving you a clear sign to exit, it is in your best interest to recognize it and act upon it. Therefore, no matter how successful a particular trade is, following a signal blindly, without proper interpretation, leads to nothing but failure.

Above, we see two long signals suggesting that we add on in the areas above while, in between, we get another short signal.

Consequently, whether you are adding onto a losing or a winning trade, the result is almost always the same. Instead of being impatient and hungry for money and success, strive to create a sustainable system that will safely operate in the back so you can let go of all the stress. As an alternative to trading fueled by emotions, learn how to base your trade on the system you have invested in creating. What is more, learn to interpret and trust your indicators because their purpose is to protect you and get in and out of trades in the most optimal point of time. As opposed to scaling out, which should become part of all traders’ plans, scaling in is an unwise strategy that leads to loss more often than not.

If you want to earn a profit continuously, you should strive to support yourself with tools that can grant you that. The idea of amassing a fortune overnight, though, will impact your trading and ability to learn and prosper. Leveraging up by adding on to a winning trade only equals more risk that will most probably get your account in a position from which you will hardly be able to get out. Not only is it a risky maneuver, but it also appears not to be a very smart one. If you have a goal you want to reach, you will accept time and effort as two preconditions to fulfilling your dreams. As it appears, there is little room, and certainly little hope, for quick solutions and related mentality.

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, August 19 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eyes on FOMC Meeting Minutes! 

On the news front, the eyes will remain on the FOMC Meeting Minutes, which are not expected to show a rate change but will help us understand U.S. economic situation and policymakers’ stance on it. Besides, the Inflation reports from the U.K. and Eurozone are also likely to drive some price action during the European session today.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.19308 after placing a high of 1.19654 and a low of 1.1863. Overall the movement of the EUR/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. The EUR/USD pair rose and extended its gains for the 6th consecutive day on Tuesday amid heavy selling pressure surrounding the greenback. The pair EUR/USD surged to its highest level since May 2018 amid broad-based U.S. dollar weakness as it followed the U.S. Treasury bond yields.

The U.S. Treasury bond yield on 10-year note lost more than 4% on the day, and the U.S. Dollar Index fell to its lowest daily close in more than two years at $92.30. Other than the persistent sell-off in the U.S. dollar, the single currency Euro found extra sustain in the solid appetite for riskier assets on the back of strong hopes over a moderate economic recovery in the region. It was increased by the news that a coronavirus vaccine could be out sooner than expected.

The risk sentiment was also supported by the investors’ confidence about the strength of the U.S. economic recovery, helped by strong earnings from retail giants Home Depot and Walmart.

The stocks were up on Tuesday as S&P 500 futures rose by 0.2%, the Dow futures contract rose by 0.4%, and while Nasdaq 100 futures moved up by 0.3%. According to a fund manager survey from Bank of America on Tuesday, showed that investors were at their most bullish trend on financial markets since February. The rise in the equity market helped increase risk appetite and EUR that is a riskier asset gained from such activity in the market.

On the data front, there was no macroeconomic data to be released from the Europe side; however, from the U.S. side, at 17:30 GMT, the Building Permits exceeded the expectations of 1.33M and came in as 1.50M in July in comparison of 1.26M of June and supported U.S. dollar. The Housing Starts also rose to 1.50M and exceeded the forecast of 1.23M and supported the U.S. dollar. Positive data from the U.S. side supported the dollar and limited the additional gains in EUR/USD pair on Tuesday.

On Wednesday, the Eurostat will release the inflation report for the Euro area. Markets expect the Core Consumer Price Inflation that excludes the volatile food and energy prices to remain flat at 1.2% on a yearly basis.

From the U.S. side, the FOMC meeting minutes will also be released to provide fresh clues about the movement of the EUR/USD pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.1873 1.1920 1.1975
1.1818 1.2022
1.1772 1.2077

 EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD pair has already violated the resistance level of 1.1912 level, which is now working as a support. On the 4 hour timeframe, the pair is supported by an upward channel at 1.1915, while the resistance stays at 1.1962 level. Bullish bias seems dominant, and it may lead the EUR/USD prices towards the 1.1998 level today. The RSI, MACD, and 50 EMA are all in support of buying trends. 

  


GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.32373 after placing a high of 1.32496 and a low of 1.30924. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained strongly bullish. The GBP/USD pair continued to extend gains and rose for 4th consecutive day on Tuesday on the back of a combination of factors. The uncertainty over the next round of U.S. stimulus aid to support the U.S. economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic has depressed the U.S. dollar. The falling U.S. Treasury bond yields further weighed on the already declining greenback and added gains in the GBP/USD pair.

The Sterling hit 8-months high on Tuesday as a new round of Brexit talks began, and the U.K. still believes that it can agree on a post-Brexit trade deal with the E.U. next month. On Tuesday ahead of the Brexit talks, a European Commission spokesman said that a deal would need to be agreed on by October. On the other hand, Mr. Barnier said that this date required an agreement to be ratified before the U.K.’s current post-Brexit transition period ends in December.

After the last round of negotiations in London, Barnier accused the U.K. of not showing willingness to break the deadlock over difficult issues. In response, David Frost replied that the E.U. had offered to break the deadlock but failed to honor the fundamental principles that the U.K. had repeatedly made clear.

On the data side, at 17:30 GMT, the Building Permits from the United States was increased to 1.50M from the forecasted 1.33M in July, and the Housing Starts also rose to 1.50 M from the expected 1.23M and supported U.S. dollar. The economic figures from the U.S. were mostly ignored by the investors as the focus was all shifted towards the new round of Brexit talks.

However, the U.S. dollar was weak across the board on Tuesday as the U.S. Dollar Index collapsed to its lowest level in more than two years at 92.28 and was having a tough time recovering. This added pressure on the greenback and added gains in the GBP/USD pair on Tuesday.

However, the losses in the U.S. dollar helped the currency pair to take bids on the day. 

 Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.3136 1.3193 1.3291
1.3037 1.3349
1.2980 1.3447

 GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.3250 level, and the pair was trading in between an ascending triangle pattern that has now been violated. The triangle pattern was extending resistance at 1.3125 level, and above this, the next resistance is pretty much likely to be found around 1.3267 level. At the same time, the support stays at 1.3186 and 1.3137 level. Bullish bias seems dominant today.

  


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 105.407 after placing a high of 106.050 and a low of 105.281. Overall the movement of the USD/JPY pair remained bearish throughout the day. The USD/JPY pair moved to a fresh 2-week lowest level around 105.20 regions after the U.S. dollar selling pressure picked up pace during the late session.

The currency pair witnessed some strong follow-through selling for the third consecutive session and extended its bearish slide from 107.00 level. The downfall in USD/JPY pair was exclusively sponsored by the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness under pressure due to impasse over the next round of U.S. fiscal stimulus measures.

The additional pressure on the U.S. dollar was exerted by the declining U.S. Treasury bond yields that undermined the already weak sentiment across the greenback. The U.S. Treasury bond yield on the 10-year note fell by 2.8% on Tuesday that weighed on the U.S. dollar.

Apart from the U.S. Treasury, the escalating tensions between the U.S. & China, drove some safe-haven flows towards the Japanese Yen that further added in the downward momentum of USD/JPY pair on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the positive opening in the U.S. equity markets failed to impress the bullish traders, and the pair USD/JPY continued moving in the downward direction and closed its day near the monthly low that was set on August 6.

On the data front, at 01:00 GMT, the TIC Long-Term Purchases for June exceeded the forecast of 108.0B and came in as 113.0B and supported the U.S. dollar. At 17:30 GMT, the Building Permits from the U.S. rose to 1.50M against the projected 1.33Mand the Housing starts rose to 1.50M from the projected 1.23Mand supported U.S. dollar that helped limit the additional losses in pair.

There was no news regarding the date of the review of the phase-one trade deal between both nations on the US-China front. It is expected that the review will be published after the targets of U.S. purchases by China will be met.

As per the deal, China has to increase its purchases of U.S. farm and manufactured products, energy, and services by $200 billion over the next two years. So far, China has made imports of products from the U.S. worth about $40.2 billion that is less than 50%. China still has far to go to meet the requirement as it was affected by the pandemic induced lockdowns; however, ever since the lockdown has been eased, China’s imports have increased. U.S. officials have said that they were satisfied with the trade deal progress so far.

On the negative side, the blacklisting of Huawei’s telecom group on Yesterday raised concerns regarding the escalated tensions between China & the U.S. and supported the bearish trend in the USD/JPY pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
105.1100 105.5900 105.9000
104.8000 106.3800
104.3100 106.6900

 

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY has violated the upward trendline support level of 106.345, as it fell sharply in the wake of increased safe-haven appeal in the market. At the movement, the USD/JPY pair is holding below 50 periods EMA, while the RSI and MACD are in support of bearish trend. The recent candle is closing above 105.344 level, suggesting strong odds of bullish correction until 106. However, the violation of 106 can lead to USD/JPY prices towards the 104.600 support level. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Basic Strategies

Should You Trade Against the Trend?

Every now and then, you will see the markets consistently move in a single direction, this is known as a trend, much like sheep, most people will jump on the trend, trading in the same directions which can potentially add to its momentum.

There is the argument that a trend cannot continue forever, and this is true, so if you are the sort of person that likes to try and predict the tops and the bottom of trends, then going against the trend could be pretty beneficial. The issue with this is that it is not exactly an easy thing to predict.

More often than not, when all points on a chart are pointing in the same direction, the market sentiment will also support this movement, so it is easy to see why the majority of traders would not want to go against it. The one thing that we need to consider though, is the fact that the majority of traders have their trading bias and may not necessarily understand why the markets are moving up or down, just following the trend without understanding the reason for the move, can be just as dangerous as going against it. This sort of hive mentality is one of the common mistakes that a lot of new traders, in particular, seem to make.

It can be a pretty scary prospect, going up against the rest of the markets, and we can understand why there would be some hesitation, after all, most people would be going in that direction for a reason right? What would you know more than they do? What you need to remember is that a strong momentum does not mean that those currencies are actually strong, it could just as easily mean that there was a large influx of amateur traders joining the markets and blindly following the trend.

There is a forex trading strategy that is known as contrarian trading, this is all about going against the current market bias, as the shift in market sentiment is inevitable at one point or another. It would involve buying a currency when it is weak or selling it as it becomes stronger. This may sound counterproductive, but it certainly has its merits.

People who trade against the trend have a much better understanding of an overpriced or oversold asset, when something is hugely over or under, it can often result in a number of different pullbacks or even price reversals as there is only so long that an asset or currency pair is able to remain in that condition. When something is overbought, it means that its price is being inflated, there is no way that it will be able to sustain that price or continued rise in price for a long period of time.

This strategy obviously has its dangers, when a currency is really strong and pushing the prices up, there is a good chance that it can actually run straight through the potential reversal points, continuing higher and higher, this can blow out a trade that a reversal hunter may have put in. So it is not something you should just try at any time, you need to be able to see the stages of the trend slowing or the main money makers pulling out, this is far harder to do that to say and so this is actually an extremely risky strategy unless you understand what you are doing.

If you have done your research, understand your fundamentals and are willing to lose a few trades, then the idea of trading against the trend can actually be a very profitable one. It won’t be for everyone, it certainly won’t be for newer traders, but there certainly are some potential of profits in it.

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Beginners Forex Education Forex Basics

Should You Trade Forex Completely Alone?

When you see traders in the movies, they are either portrayed as one of two things, a single person sat in their bedroom or office, glued to the computer with very little interaction with anyone else. The other is in a loud and busy room, shouting down the telephone, even though they are surrounded by others, they are fixed on their own task, ignoring all around them and simply trying to complete their current task. While they are very different environments and situations, the traders are very similar in the way that it is only them trading, they are not working with others.

This is the view that a lot of people come into trading thinking, they are assuming that trading is a job for those that do not like to interact, or if you do pick it up, you are not meant to be talking with others. The truth is, that this is both the case and it is not the case. It is true that you should be doing your trading for yourself (not using signals for expert advisors to do it for you), but there is nothing to say that you should not be interacting with others, in fact, we would recommend it as it brings in a lot of different benefits, and so we are going to be looking at the advantages of both trading alone and trading with others, as both bring different advantages to the field.

Let’s start with one of the major reasons as to why a lot of people trade alone, it’s the simple fact that the fewer people that there are around you, the fewer distractions that there are. Distractions can be a real killer for a trader, it can completely take you out of your stride and can even cause you to make mistakes and so ultimately can make you lose money. So being able to get rid of those distractions can help. When it comes to trading with others, this is simply about others talking to you, asking questions, or simply making noises around you which can distract you from what you are doing and take your concentration away from what is important. If You are one of the many people that get far too easily distracted by others, then maybe doing the majority of your trading alone will help. Of course, this does not mean that you need to seclude yourself completely.

Having said that, even if you trade completely alone there are still reasons to try and get in contact with others, the main would be to get opinions on your ideas or to get ideas from others in order to find new trade setups and to develop your own style with the input of others. If you are simply trading by yourself. How are you going to get feedback on your trading, you could, of course, use your trading journal, but if your basic understanding of something is wrong, then to you, your journal would be telling you that you are doing something right and doing it well. When in reality, that thing that you are doing may be detrimental to your trading, the only way that you will get to learn this is if you are talking to other people about what you are doing. So while people can be a major distraction, it is important that you do interact with them, just do it outside of your trading time. You can also get ideas from others in trading communities, ideas of good assets to trade and good trade setups, even completely new strategies, so make sure that you use people for knowledge again, just do this outside of your trading time so it does not become a distraction.

While we have stated that getting ideas from others can be helpful, it can also be counterproductive and can make things a little complicated. Let’s imagine that you have your idea already, you go online and there are others showing you that this is not a good idea or giving you little things to add, this causes you to go back and change things. You may end up changing quite a lot, so now your strategy and risk management plan is nothing like it was before. This can make it harder for you to actually understand what it is that you are trading anymore. So while talking to there may be fine, you need to be sure of your own strategy, make sure that anything that you do change, you understand exactly why, otherwise you need to stick to your original strategy, this is what you set up and it is in line with how you wish to trade, after all, it is your strategy, so don’t let others dictate it.

A lot of people who have come into trading have come from their previous job, being able to get rid of your boss was one of the major draws of trading so being involved with others is not really what they are looking for. This is perfectly understandable, trading by yourself means that you are in charge, you are taking responsibilities for your trades, your wins, and your losses. This is a good situation to be in as you do not want to be blaming others. If something goes wrong, you did and so it is up to you to find out what went wrong and to rectify it, the same goes for wins, the wins are your own and so you should feel proud of them. If others have given you the trade ideas or changed the way you trade then it can feel like a hollow victory and like you are back at your old job listening to your manager. Having said that, listening to others is not necessarily bad, just don’t let them influence your trading too much.

We are going to throw this one in there, other people can be very valuable when it comes to their trading signals or even copy trading. You should really be trying to develop your own style of trading so that you can trade yourself, but there are those out there that prefer to bypass that and simply copy other people’s trades without really understanding why. If this works for you then there is no problem with it, but it is important that you get to know the person that you are putting your trust in. Keep in constant contact with them, get to know them better, and what it is that they are trading. The last thing that you want to do is to simply blindly follow the trades, so there ain’t really much interaction, but it is important that you make the most out of the interaction you can have with the trade provider.

So those are some of the reasons why you should, or possibly shouldn’t trade alone, each person will have a different opinion of it, some will love being by themselves while others will need the human interaction that they get from others. What is important is that you trade the way that is right for you, just do not be afraid of being out of your comfort zone every now and then, especially if your trading demands it.

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Beginners Forex Education Forex Basic Strategies

The Strangest Forex Trading Strategies

You often see the same strategies being mentioned over and over, there are a few different ones that a lot of people use, or at least different variations of very similar ones. However, every now and then you come across a strategy that people are using which do not actually make any sense, more often than not there is a form of gambling involved, but those people are convinced that their strategy works and so they continue working with it.

We are now taking a look at a number of different strange yet very real strategies that people have been using to trade on the markets.

Allowing your pet to trade: This is a weird one and certainly goes into the realms of gambling. You probably see during most major sporting events, they will put food in two bowls to predict the result, whichever the bowl that the pet eats out of is the predicted winner. Some people have taken this into the trading world and put two bowls down, one with a buy and one with a sell, then let your pet decide. Now unless your pet is actually psychic, this method of choosing trades is certainly not a realistically long term process. It is all a gamble and not something that we could recommend, it could work for a few trades, but certainly won’t in the long run.

Use sports to trade: Sports trading is big business, but we aren’t talking about that, we are talking about people who use sport to work out what they’re going to trade on the markets. This can be a single match or an overall tournament, normally people will look at the super bowl or the world cup final, whichever team wins or scores next will determine the direction of the trade. Not the most scientific approach and certainly not a reliable one, yet it is something that a lot of people do, mainly for fun I am sure, but there is a good chance that one could go the wrong way. I am sure that you can see that there really isn’t a correlation between sport and trading in this sense.

Trading based on the weather: What could be easier than getting up in the morning, looking outside, and knowing exactly what the markets are going to do. Well, that is exactly what some people are doing, they are simply opening the blinds and trading based on the weather. If it is sunny, it will probably go up, if it’s rainy, most likely down, seems logical right? Well apart from the fact that the weather does nothing to the markets. It may change your outlook or your mood, but it certainly does not change the markets.

Trading based on the seasons: Pretty similar to the weather, but slightly easier to work out what the direction of the trade should be. This isn’t necessarily about deciding whether you go long or short, it is more based around the idea that certain investments are better in the colder months and others in the warmer ones. Strategies surrounding this can involve things like trading riskier investments and currencies from November to March before then switching to slightly less risky investments for the rest of the year.

Coin flip: You need to love to gamble on this one, it is not really a strategy when you think about it, it is more of a 50/50 gamble, flip a coin, heads go up, tails go down, simple really.

Home run: The riskiest of all strategies, you are simply going for a home run with every trade, if it is pulled off then you pretty much double your account, couple home runs in a row and you are laughing to the bank. However, unlike baseball, it is one strike and you are out. You need to be able to massively over leverage the account as well as risk the entire thing on a single trade, putting in a trade size larger than usual. Not the best strategy at all, but if you have $10 you don’t mind gambling, it could be fun.

So those are a few of the weirder strategies that people have been known to use. They aren’t ones that are going to make you rich, heck they probably won’t get you many wins compared to losses, but for a bit of fun, they could be worth a shot, of course, maybe use them on a demo account instead of on your actual account.

Categories
Forex Fibonacci

How Not to Use Fibonacci

It may be an incredibly popular tool but not all forex traders are big fans of using Fibonacci, we’re here to take a look at why this might be the case.

What Are We Talking About Here?

This is no guide to using Fibonacci sequences in trading instead, it’s more a look at why some traders turn their noses up to this approach. That said, it doesn’t hurt to have a quick glance at how traders use this tool. Fibonacci numbers form sequences, inventively known as Fibonacci sequences, which are in turn closely related to the golden ratio. This is a phenomenon in mathematics that has been discovered throughout nature and statistical analysis and eventually made its way into different kinds of trading, including forex trading.

The most common use of Fibonacci in forex trading is to use Fibonacci retracement levels to throw up potential support and resistance lines across your chart that show places where the price might bounce back into a reversal. Put simply, the idea is to use these lines to assess where to enter a trade. In its most basic form, when the price is trending, it should retrace its steps occasionally to bounce off a Fibonacci level before it continues its trend and this is supposed to indicate an entry point.

So, What’s the Problem?

As you might have guessed, the growing anti-Fibonacci movement highlights several different problems with this approach.

The first of these is its abstraction. In other words, it is completely divorced from the realities of the market and relies entirely on an abstract pattern to try to locate trade entry points. There is no reason, the naysayers will tell you, why a mathematical sequence that has thrown up patterns in nature would have an effect or even any value for predicting the price movements of a currency pair. And, indeed, prediction is the name of the game here. Because using Fibonacci retracement levels is an attempt to predict future price movements. This is important and we’ll come back to it later in the article.

People who dismiss and reject the applicability of Fibonacci levels are likely to cite other reasons for price movement, including news events, the movements of the herd (that is the activities of the mass of traders who are often to be found trying to do the same thing at the same time), the sometimes pernicious activity of the influential players in the market, and so on. Of course, this has some weight behind – ultimately, there is no real connection between Fibonacci sequences and the movements of the market – the only connection is that Fibonacci levels and other similar approaches are supposed to guide you in analysing large statistical data sets. The price interactions of currency pairs as determined by the market are said to be such a set.

20/20 Hindsight

But there’s a problem inherent in that. This problem becomes particularly apparent when you take Fibonacci levels for a joyride through a historical chart. Choose any currency pair you like and take a look back through its price movements over a long period. Now try to find those times where Fibonacci levels would have been really useful in providing trade signals. The first thing you’ll notice is that the price regularly – and we mean regularly – just blows straight through any Fibonacci levels you care to put up. This is a problem for using it as an indicator of anything really. An indicator that doesn’t work some of the time is one thing, but one that hardly ever works is much more problematic for a trader.

More importantly than that, those times when it does appear to have worked, where the price is trending but then backtracks before bouncing off a Fibonacci line. Those times are, of course, going to be rare. But it’s not just their rarity that is problematic. It’s also the fact that they are often only noticeable when viewed retrospectively like this. In the heat of the moment, before the candles complete, it is much harder to spot a pattern emerging that could be predicted by a Fibonacci retracement. And prediction is important because that’s what this is all about. Using Fibonacci or any other tool in forex trading that fails to reliably predict where the price is going to be in the future is ultimately not just frustrating but also potentially very financially harmful. It’s just no good if somebody comes along and points out that the price of a given currency pair bounced off a Fibonacci line in the past. That’s old news and it’s no good to you. Remember, you have to make a decision while a Fibonacci-like pattern is still emerging… Or not, as the case may be.

Where Do You Draw the Line?

Another problem with using Fibonacci levels to trade is that there is no clear way of knowing when to stop using them. That is, when do Fibonacci lines stop being valid? Are you using the levels that are only relevant to the most recent swings (either high or low) or do you incorporate lines from further back? If so, how far back can you go before the lines you drew where the price simply crashed through them are no longer relevant? Or should you try to keep it as simple as possible and reduce the Fibonacci lines across your chart only to the most relevant?

The problem is, there are too many questions and too much of a danger of cluttering your chart with a haystack worth of meaningless lines. Because, if you draw enough lines across a chart, the price will definitely bounce off some of them somewhere but they will also lose all meaning. This fuzziness bothers a lot of traders and they will claim that it is for this reason that their opposite numbers – the traders who are committed to using Fibonacci – are constantly having to adapt their approach. The argument is that they have to keep modifying their approach because, at the end of the day, the Fibonacci levels lack clarity to the point that it becomes impossible to know whether they are working or whether they just look like they might be working.

A Little Success…

So why are Fibonacci levels even as popular as they are? Certainly one of the reasons lies in the forex traders’ version of that old saying, “a little knowledge is a dangerous thing” – for forex traders a little success is a deadly thing. Traders often start out by trying to use Fibonacci retracements because they’ve heard so many good things and, if they’re lucky, they might even see some early success in using them. The problem comes further down the road. Because, in the long term, using Fibonacci levels will slowly work less and less well, using them will mean an over-focus on one (potentially very flawed) tool while other tools and opportunities are missed. That early smell of success can be a powerful drug and draws traders into establishing patterns of behaviour that are ultimately harmful.

The Curse of Popularity

Of course, it isn’t always someone’s fault if they do give Fibonacci levels a go. The reason they might is that so many people out there on the forex internet are talking about them. Social media is particularly prone to promoting Fibonacci as though it’s the best thing since sliced bread. And there’s a reason for that, which is that posters can come off sounding very smart and knowledgeable indeed if they point out where price is approaching a Fibonacci level. Much rarer, to the point of being non-existent, are accounts that will come back and post an apology, where they say, “Hey, sorry, I said the price was approaching this and this line but it just crashed through as though the line wasn’t there.” Another thing you’ll almost certainly have noticed from forex-related social media accounts is that they will often point out where a Fibonacci retracement has taken place in the past. Unfortunately, this is of no use to anyone actually trying to trade like that because, once it’s happened there’s nothing to do other than appreciate its beauty – if you’re into that sort of thing. No actual use can be gleaned from pointing out historical occasions where a retracement has worked.

How to Proceed?

Whether or not you found the arguments in this article convincing is kind of irrelevant. The thing to do with any tool you encounter – whether it’s a popular one that everyone is shouting about from the rooftops or a niche tool you discovered through hard graft – is to test it yourself thoroughly. This is as true of Fibonacci retracements as it is for anything else. In that sense, it might also be useful or fun for you to wait until somebody on social media posts one of those cherry-picked examples of a Fibonacci retracement coming off perfectly and then go back and see if you can figure out what levels they were using.
If you do remain unconvinced and intend to carry on using Fibonacci approaches to trading, there is one other very important thing to be aware of. Those traders who have committed to this discipline and have made it work to one extent or another have done so by combining Fibonacci with a carefully selected set of other technical analysis tools. So, if you do plan to use Fibonacci retracements, make sure that you are ready to do so in a coordinated approach that also relies on other indicators and tools to help you assess whether your Fibonacci-based hunch is really likely to turn into the price movement you were hoping for.

Categories
Beginners Forex Education Forex Basics

Why Popular Tools are Bad for Your Trading

A vast majority of people keep using certain tools that a portion of successful forex traders describe as utterly futile. In this article, we are going to assess the basis of such opinions and possibly shed some new light on the topic of technical analysis tools in spot forex trading. More specifically, we are going to provide ways in which you can stop yourself from squandering any more money by offering some direct and practical advice. If you keep finding yourself in a precarious situation where you cannot seem to prosper or grow as a trader, learning about these 12 tools may provide you with new and innovative ideas and perspectives you can incorporate in your trading in this market.

Some references go as far as to say that the number of traders who are experiencing financial hardship, constantly spiraling downward, is as high as 99%, if not above. Some of the reasons behind such lamentable statistics may have a lot to do with one’s money management skills. At times traders have quite a good idea of which entries they should make, but they lack the investment mindset to back these skills up in a more sustainable manner. As one of the essential topics in the world of trading, this is unfortunately seldom discussed, along with today’s topic. Aside from possibly lacking an efficient system to support your intelligent investment and trading decisions, you may be also lacking the knowledge or experience regarding tools, often unfoundedly glorified by various people.

While educating yourself on tools, techniques, and strategies is key in this world, we may often come across information suggesting the use of some outdated tools and indicators, which can be even quite detrimental to your attempt to follow current trends. What is more, some of these were not even developed for forex trading in the first place as they are based on concepts used in trading equities and gold, among others. It is these basic concepts which forex market revolves around that you strive to grasp and apply intelligently and strategically: understanding the nature of fiat currencies, the impact of money management skills, the role of big banks, the importance of trend trading, and the detriment of trading reversals to a trader’s overall success. At this point, every trader must accept the need to eliminate the information which is not beneficial because no professional algorithm can overpower flawed thinking. You can now begin to grasp how disinformation and misinterpretation can impact your development and finances, which naturally involves the necessity to discriminate between different tools and indicators you can use in your chart.

Started in 1996, the spot market is only a little over one decade old, which is why we currently have approximately 10 thousand indicators and tools at our disposal. Nevertheless, we must be aware of the fact that most of these were not specifically invented for the needs of forex trading. Like with various other gadgets that lost their importance or were simply replaced by more modern versions (e.g. pager vs. cell phone), we can logically conclude how even the world of trading requires modernization to be able to produce realistic results. A tool designed in the 70s for the stock market can possibly render some success, but you know that an innovative tool can lead you to a much better, and much more secure, outcome. Therefore, let us see which 12 indicators fall under this category and why we should consider turning to some other tools at this time.

ADX Indicator

The average directional index (ADX) was developed in 1978 and the reason why traders use it is twofold. People mostly use it for the purpose of measuring volume, which is absolutely understandable and needed in forex trading; however, the volume meter is simply too slow and, even if you try to make it work faster, the information it provides can become severely inaccurate. Another important component of this indicator, Directional Index (DI) which tells traders whether their currency pair is bullish or bearish, has such a major lagging issue that it affects the whole process. Therefore, due to using this indicator, you are not only at risk of making entries based on false data, but you also enter the market too late, which together make this indicator increasingly unreliable.

Trend Lines

As there is no one correct way to draw trend lines, which involves a great degree of imprecision, this approach may easily be least worthy of your time. Differences between the way trend lines are drawn can be so vast that a trader may not know how to surpass this seemingly unsurmountable problem – show the focus on price tops or where the price closed and what should they do if a price has broken the trend line? Everyone seems to have their own idea of what to do in this case, but these opinions differ to the extent that forming a uniform approach seems impossible. Furthermore, with such a great number of possible options, we may be able to draw several trend lines in any chart. Unfortunately, most trends are already over by the time we discover them. If you experienced a situation where a price did not align with your trend line, it is because the notion of diagonal support or resistance is entirely nonexistent, which supports the belief that trend lines should not be used in charts to gain any relevant information.

Stochastics

Developed way back in the 1950s, this tool is based on terms such as overbought and oversold that meaningfully and essentially have no relevance to trading fiat currencies, which alone is a proof strong enough for you to opt for another indicator. Moreover, it is highly unreliable in trading stocks too because the majority of signals it gives are false even in case of range-bound prices. What is more, traders inevitably face disappointing results whenever the prices are trending because, with a commonly vast number of reversal traders, stochastics will simply keep giving inaccurate information. This further implies that all the money traders make during the range-bound periods will go to waste once the prices start trending. Therefore, regardless of whether you are using the slow or the fast version of this indicator, there is a high chance that your investment will not go as planned.

Price Levels

Although this is not a tool per se, a number of traders believe that they should place special attention on trading when they come across a round number (e.g. 1.2000 EUR/USD or 1.5000 NZD/USD). Because the same happens when a price ends in this way, traders must understand the vastness of options this standpoint entails. Moreover, price levels are commonly interpreted as psychological levels, which some professional traders consider downright false. Another reason why this may not be your best approach is the fact that the big banks will always show interest in a surge of activity in the trading market, and should they any of these catch their attention, they may decide to step in. Traders simply cannot predict how the price will go from this point onwards, which is why putting your faith in price levels may be unwise.

CCI Indicator

The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is commonly used for both trends and reversals. Built in 1980, this indicator is mostly criticized for its tendency to push traders into making a move too early. A number of traders claim to have attempted to make use of this indicator and failed because of its mechanics. As this market does not react well to any untimely activity, entrusting your financials to an imprecise indicator may take a toll on your trading and possibly your future prospects of succeeding in forex trading.

Support/Resistance Lines

Despite this indicator being so frequently used by spot forex traders, we need to address the fact that it leaves room for too many possibilities. Unlike trend lines, these lines are quite easy to draw and, at the same time, almost every trader can have access to the exact same information. Such ability diverts a lot of attention in a very narrow direction and this immediately sparks big banks’ interest. The moment this happens, the price is redirected the opposite way and everyone using this indicator ends up losing a lot of money.

Japanese Candlesticks

One of the oldest indicators dating back to the 18th century, Japanese Candlesticks, is also one of the easiest to see and thus used by large numbers of traders. Once they are noticed, everyone decides to react to the same signals and, quite naturally, big banks interfere once again. Due to the fact that a price reversed, you may even find a hammer you believe functions well, but so did other participants in the market. Many traders find themselves very excited at this point that they cannot seem to notice several points in the chart where other hammers previously failed. To keep traders motivated, the big banks will always allow them an occasional victory, but this only further instills casino mentality in traders intended to maintain a constant surge of individuals hungry for another win.

Chart Patterns

Chart patterns, which function similarly to the previously mentioned indicator, can be quite useful in trading stocks because it focuses on traders’ sentiment. Forex trading does not favor this approach unless we decide to go against the flow, because traders in this market are by default bereft of the information where the money is actually going as the big banks are the only ones entitled to possess this kind of knowledge. In addition, chart patterns are quite easy to see and, as we have seen with the other indicators above, big banks take traders’ orders, trigger them, and whipsaw the price. Only once these traders exit the trade will the banks actually decide on the price’s direction, and the vast number of people who use this indicator allows for this perpetual motion to keep happening over and over again.

Bollinger Bands

This indicator created by John Bollinger in the early 80s is another tool largely dependent on the subject of overbought and oversold, the trap which reversal traders keep getting themselves into. As discussed above, this approach is not viable in trading currencies although some individuals make use of them in calling trends. Unfortunately, this again has its drawbacks because you may be pushed out too early. Successful forex traders commonly look for long runs where they can get a great number of pips, which is why this indicator often does not make their algorithm.

Fibonacci

Similar to support/resistance lines, with any given timeframe, any trader can draw several Fibonacci retracements on any chart. Having several lines on one chart entails that there are too many possibilities, especially considering the fact that we cannot know which line the price is going bounce off of. As Fibonacci revolves around the patterns which occur in nature, the spot forex market naturally cannot make use of this indicator.

RSI

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) was created in 1978 for the purpose of trading stocks, which implies that concepts of overbought and oversold are again used extensively with this indicator. Considering the fact that a number of stock traders do not find it to be useful in reality, we can wonder why traders would even attempt to use them in trading currencies. As RSI is one of the most researched and widely used indicators, traders now have access to a great quantity of data which can save them from experiencing failure while trading currencies.

Moving Average Crossovers

Despite the fact that this indicator proved to be useful at times, it still does not give you an exclusive insight into any market activity. Even if you can draw an SMA (simple moving average) of 50, 100, or 200, you become one of many who focus on the price nearing one of these levels or on the two moving averages crossing. Moreover, as the spot forex market requires traders to be alert and timely with their decision-making, this indicator is probably not the best choice because it simply gets you in too late.

Whichever indicator you want to use, make sure that you do not lose sight of the need to enter the market and start trading just on time, which some of the tools discussed today evidently cannot grant you. If you want to become a successful trader, explore whatever available information you can and work on your trading toolbox understanding what trading currencies essentially means. Last but not least, think of the percentage of people doomed to fail just because they have not invested time and effort in researching and analyzing the indicators they entrust their financial stability with.

Categories
Beginners Forex Education Forex Trade Types

Trader’s Guide to MACD Swing Trading

It is common knowledge that traders rely on indicators to trade in the fiat market and the fact that they are so widely used nowadays also goes along with the number of types and varieties of indicators traders have at their disposal. Among thousands of available options, some seem to have caught the attention of quite a few traders, and today we are going to dive into the topic of Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator, or MACD in short, which is a very common tool that forex traders use to follow trends, and learn the secret to earning a secure profit.

Generally praised for its diverse functions, this indicator may easily enchant you with what it offers. Nonetheless, as the existence of MACD’s different versions is often concealed, further obscured by the craze for its alleged abilities documented by various sources, we need to be careful not to get confused. This may, in fact, as well serve as good grounds for finally differentiating between quality and quantity, despite the indicator’s worldwide popularity. If we compare it to another tool we all know of, such as the Swiss army knife, we can immediately come to the conclusion that the bigger is not always the better. The parts that make this multi-tool simply do not reflect any fine quality and, what is more, they frequently fail to achieve their intended purpose, which in this case is to cut, open bottles, and file nails, among others. Compared to other single-purpose tools that efficiently and effectively fulfill these intentions, we cannot but recognize the correlations with the MACD indicator.

If you are wondering whether there is anything positive about this indicator, the answer is yes. As a matter of fact, although not all of its functions appear to serve a greater cause in this line of business, one of them is said to have rendered such a vast number of pips and provided many lucrative trades to various professional traders. However, before determining its most valuable sides, let us first propose a definition and classify it in terms of indicator types: MACD is essentially a two-line indicator based on the principle that once one line crosses the other, traders get the information to go either short or long. This tool is also known for its zero line, which sends out an important signal when the other lines cross over. Most people tend to use it because they can do reversals, which is unfortunately a major stumbling block in building one’s account as well as the opposite of using this indicator’s full potential. On the bright side, MACD also lets its users follow trends, helping traders to see which direction a trend will take. Regardless of this unique trait where both trend trading and reversal trading are made possible, there are still a few more questions requiring additional analysis.

One of the gray areas when it comes to using MACD certainly involves the question of whether this indicator uses a simple moving average (SMA) or an exponential moving average (EMA) for determining lines. Aside from the fact is that both of the two variations exist, traders can also use MT4’s MACD version presented in the image below, which a number of traders criticize for its impractical appearance. Again, traders across the world may have very distinct ideas of how this indicator looks like precisely because there are so many different variations out there. Considering the fact that MACD was initially developed in the 1970s for the purpose of trading stocks, this indicator’s original version cannot fully support the needs of the forex market. Nevertheless, some of the more recent variations were developed specifically for trading currencies, and, in the end, it is the traders’ choice which version they are going to use, be it is an SMA or an EMA one.

Another of the commonly asked questions revolves around histogram (the white vertical lines in the image below) that some professional traders consider as not very functional and useful. Although some traders may certainly make good use of it, histogram actually serves to indicate that the zero line has been crossed when it moves from the positive to the negative, something anyone can see by focusing on the place where the blue line crosses the red one (compare the yellow and the light blue rectangle in the following image). With the ability to remove histograms in some versions, it still does not seem to be the main reason why most traders use this indicator.

As we mentioned before, the preference of those using this indicator is to trade reversals rather than trends, which should not be your goal in trading currencies at all. Despite MACD’s ability to signal some very good trends when the zero line is crossed, we are safe to say that there may be some other apt indicators with the ability to provide equally, if not more, useful information. It is precisely the option to display both the two-line cross and the zero-line cross at the same time that traders should be interested in while searching for the right indicator. Bearing in mind the fact that there are quite a few of such tools similar to MACD, you should strive to find the one you would like to use because it will offer highly accurate signals and thus help you achieve substantial results.

If you look at the image below, you will see the AUD/USD daily chart using the same indicator. However, instead of focusing on the several spots where the red and blue lines cross each other as many traders do, you should actually focus on all the places where the two lines are either above or below the zero line, closely watching that both lines ore on the same side. This is important because, to get the maximum result, you will want to look for some specific information: as, for example, the two lines below the zero line indicate a downtrend, you will be looking for the place where the two lines cross again going downward. If the two lines are above the zero line, you will be naturally looking for the up signals. This approach implies that traders are not calling reversals, but following trends, and what your next step should be is to assess at which point in the chart you can earn the greatest number of pips (with the 100-pip range as your goal), making sure that you pay attention to all the places where the two lines are found on the opposite sides of the zero line.

While MACD can certainly offer this information where you can open continuation trades following the existing trend, you may be better off with some other indicator that can provide the same information. The main rule to follow with any such indicator is to have both lines above zero to be able to go long, ensuring that they have not crossed down at any point, with the opposite being true if you desire to go short. What this does is grants traders the luxury of actually following the existing trending, without the hustle of calling reversals and hoping to get a win somewhere down the line. This tool along with this piece of advice is what helped a number of professional traders become successful because this way you have a real chance to earn a profit. Finally, if you discover an indicator that comes close to your needs and preferences, you can always adjust the settings, rather than use the MACD indicator, and start making some of your biggest trades.

Categories
Forex Course

144. Trading The Channel Breakouts In The Forex Market

Introduction

Breakout trading is one of the easiest and most common and smartest ways to trade the market. It doesn’t matter whether you are a scalper, intraday trader, investor, or a swing trader; you can always make money in the market if you master the breakout trading only.

Breakout trading is an attempt to enter in the market when the price action moves outside the significant price range, most of the time it takes an immense amount of power to break the significant areas, and you will always witness the spikes, fake-outs near the breakouts, this is because both of the parties tries to dominate the shows.

What is a Price Channel?

A price channel is a state of the market that connects the swing high and swing higher lows in an uptrend. Conversely, in a downtrend, it connects the swing low and lower low. The upper trend lines act as a resistance to the price action, and the lower trend lines act as a support line on the price chart. The price respects these areas by staying inside the price channel. When the opposite party becomes dominates, then we witness the breakout in a channel.

Trading Channel Breakouts

Buy Trade 1

The price chart below represents a channel breakout in the CAD/JPY forex pair.

 

As we can see, the sellers are getting weaker in the channel, and as a result, soon after the breakout price action changed its trend. So, around 81.55, the price action broke to the north and printing a brand new higher high.

Buy Trade 2

The image below represents the formation of a price channel in the CAD/JPY forex pair.

As we can see, the below price chart represents our entry-exit and stop loss in this pair. So during the downtrend, both buyers and sellers were holding equal power. Near to the 78.00 area, price action broke to the north, and after the breakout, we took a buy-entry. After our entry, the price made a brand new higher high, but the hold at the most recent higher high convinced us to close our trade at the 88.37 level.

Sell Trade 1

The image below represents the formation of a Price channel in a downward trend.

 

The image below represents our entry, stop loss, and take profit in this Forex pair. The channel is typically formed when there is no trend, or when the trend is about to end. On a lower timeframe, we can trade inside the Channel, but on this timeframe, the break below the 78.30 level indicates that the sellers stole the show, and are ready for a brand new lower low.

Sell Trade 2

The image below represents a channel breakout in the AUD/JPY Forex pair.

Right after the price action approaches the most recent support area, it just got shot down and broke below the Channel. The strong red breakout candle is an indication for us to go short in this pair and right after our entry, we have witnessed a brand new lower low.

Trading channel breakouts is this simple. But minute details like drawing channel lines accurately is crucial. Let’s learn more breakout trading techniques in the upcoming lessons. For now, don’t forget to take the quiz.

[wp_quiz id=”85204″]
Categories
Forex Fundamental Analysis

Everything About ‘Social Security Rate’ – An Important Fundamental Forex Driver

Introduction

During the recent Coronavirus pandemic, the whole debate about social security has taken CenterStage. At a point in life, we all grow old. Since not everyone will go through life-saving for retirement, our main worry then would be; how to pay bills on time, how to provide for our families should we lose out jobs or become incapable of working.

Social security attempts to anticipate all this and offer practical solutions. So why should forex traders care about the social security rate? This article seeks to understand what impact of social security rate has on a country’s currency. To establish this, we first need to understand what it is and what it entails.

What is Social Security?

Social security has been given several definitions. In the UK, it is considered to be any form of monetary assistance from the government towards individuals who have inadequate or no income. In the US, social security is a federal program that is meant to provide retirees, the poor and the disabled with income and health insurance.

Thus, social security is the guarantee that a government gives to its vulnerable citizens that in the event they are exposed to a specific future risk, they will be looked after. The social security program, therefore, uses public resources to provide economic support for private citizens.

What is Social Security Rate?

This rate is the percentage of earnings that is charged on both the workers and their employers. It is used to fund the social security program.

How it is Calculated

Various countries have different mechanisms of arriving at the social security rate for both the employed and self-employed.

In the US, the social security rate is 15.3%. It is a combination of a 12.4% social security tax and Medicare tax of 2.9%. In 2020, the 12.4% social security tax is applied on everyone for all income up to $137,700; any amount earned beyond this threshold is exempt from the social security tax. The social security tax is deducted on an individual’s payroll through payroll withholding by the employer. This rate is split in half between the employee and the employer.

Therefore, an individual contributes 6.2% for social security and 1.45% of their earnings while the employer matches the other half. The employer then remits the withheld amount together with their contribution to the IRS. For those that are self-employed, since they are the employee and the employer at the same time, they have to pay both halves of the social security tax. In the UK, the social security rate is 14%. A comprehensive list of current and previous social security rates for every country can be found on the Trading Economics website.

Purpose of the Social Security

Conventional taxes are meant to be a revenue source for government expenditure or meant to be punitive. The social security tax is meant to a safety net for the contributors should they fall on hard times. It also functions as an economic guarantee for the most vulnerable in society. The chart below shows the dependency on social security benefits by various household income class in the US.

Source: AARP

Some of the benefits of the social security program include:

Retirement benefits

This offers workers and their dependents a replacement income for when they choose to retire. The earliest retirement age is 62 years. For one to be eligible for retirement benefits, they need to have worked for a minimum stipulated period. This period differs depending on the country. In the US, it is for ten years. The amount of money received largely depends on one’s lifetime earnings and the cost of living.

Disability benefits

Also known as disability insurance, the Social Security and Supplemental Security Income disability is meant to provide an income for the disabled. For one to be eligible, they need to have worked for a minimum number of years, depending on the age when the disability occurred.

Medical cover

This is the health insurance coverage that covers part of medical bills for ageing workers, people with permanent health conditions and those with disability.

Survivors benefits

This is meant to help those who are bereaved to cope

Social Security Rate and the Economy

The social security program differs in every country. However, in every economy, such programs are meant to provide stability to the households by providing a replacement stream of income, hence avoiding poverty. In the US alone, close to 56 million people are recipients of social security benefits.

Source: International Labour Organization

As shown in the chart above, higher expenditure in terms of social security corresponds to a higher GDP per capita. While some might argue that a higher social security rate reduces the amount of disposable income, the multiplier effect generated by the resultant social security benefits outweighs any short term loss.

It is worth noting that the families and individual who receive these benefits use the income to purchase goods and services. In 2019, it was estimated that the social security program injected over $1 trillion into the economy. Therefore, the presence of social security helps to maintain demand in the economy in times of crises and some cases, increase the demand.

The benefits of the social security program have a powerful multiplier effect within the economy. The businesses that receive this income from the consumers use it to increase production and hire more employees. These expansions, in turn, generate more revenue for the government to use in national expenditure while the earnings by the employees serve to create more consumption and increased savings.

How Social Security Rate Impacts Currency

As we have already established above, a higher social security rate creates a multiplier effect that generates more revenue within the economy. The strength of a country’s currency is a reflection of its economy. The growth in the national economy, therefore, corresponds to the appreciation in the value of the currency.

Conversely, lowering the social security rate will reduce the multiplier effect within the economy, which leads to shrinking of the national economic growth. For forex traders, lowering the social security rate could be a foreboding of a looming reduction in the national GDP growth, prompting expansionary monetary and fiscal policies. Therefore, in the long run, a low social security rate leads to the weakening of a country’s currency against other pairs.

How Social Security Rate News Release Affects The Forex Price Charts

Forex traders rarely pay any attention to the release of the new social security rates. This inattentiveness is because as an economic indicator, the social security rate is a low impact indicator. However, it is essential nonetheless to know how the news release of the social security rate affects the price action of different pairs.

In the UK, the national government through the Department for Work and Pensions sets the social security rate and is reviewed annually. A breakdown of the UK social security rate can be found HM Revue and Customs website. It should be noted that for the past 25 years, the US government has not changed the social security rate, as can be seen here. Below is a screengrab from the Trading Economics’ website on the UK and US social security rates.

UK social security rate

US social security rate

In the latest release on April 6, 2020, around 1100 GMT, the UK government revised the social security rate upwards from 12% to 14%. Now, let’s see how this news release made an impact on the Forex price charts.

GBP/USD: Before social security rate release April 6, 2020

We plotted a 20-period Moving Average on a one-hour GBP/USD chart. As can be seen on the chart above, the pair is in recovery with the candles crossing over the 20-period Moving Average and subsequently forming above it.

For the GBP/NZD and GBP/AUD pairs, the market is in a general downtrend before the announcement of the hike in the social security rate. This trend is evidenced by the subsequent candles forming below the 20-period Moving Average, as shown in the charts below.

GBP/NZD: Before social security rate release April 6, 2020,

GBP/AUD: Before social security rate release April 6, 2020

For forex traders, going long on the GBP/USD wile short on the GBP/NZD and GBP/AUD pairs would have been an excellent trading opportunity since the prevailing market trends would favour them.

Let us now see if the release of the new social security rates changed the market trend for these pairs.

GBP/USD: After social security rate release April 6, 2020

In theory, raising the social security rate should be positive for the GBP. Bust, as can be seen in the GBP/USD one-hour chart, the news release, did not have any impact on the pair to change the market trend significantly. The lack of impact can be observed for the GBP/NZD and the GBP/AUD pairs as shown by the charts below.

GBP/NZD: After social security rate release April 6, 2020

GBP/AUD: After social security rate release April 6, 2020,

Whereas the social security rate plays a significantly important role in the overall economy and the GDP, it is apparent that its impact in the forex market is negligible.

Categories
Forex Basic Strategies

The ‘Daily High Low’ Based Forex Trading Strategy

Introduction

The daily high low based forex trading strategy is a breakout trading strategy from the high and low prices in the daily timeframe. In forex trading, the daily timeframe is crucial as most of the significant market players use this time table in their trading. As a result, any trading strategy in the daily time frame provides better trading results compared to the lower time frame.

On the other hand, when the price creates a rally by breaking the high and low price of the daily timeframe will indicate a significant market momentum. If you can avoid the range market, the high low based strategy can provide a reliable trading result. If you can implement the trading strategy well as per the rule mentioned below, you can make a decent profit from it in any currency pair.

The Daily High Low Based Trading Strategy

The daily high low based forex trading strategy has a simple concept:

  • If the price breaks below the low of yesterday’s candle, it may move further low.
  • If the price breaks above the high of yesterday’s candle, it may move further high.

It is a standard brief of this trading strategy. Let’s have a look at the image below:

In this image above, the price has made a new higher high once it breaks above the candle high in the market area. However, there is some market condition where price moves to a range and violates the movement above or below the candle high.

If you are trading the breakout of a daily candlestick that is larger than the earlier candlesticks, you might be caught by the mean reversion of the price. In the forex market, it is often difficult to predict how long a trend could stay. Almost 70% of the time, the market moves within a range; therefore, you should find a location of the price where the breakout from a daily candle would be reliable.

The basic concept of making a good profit from the forex market is to buy from low and sell from high. Therefore, any bullish breakout from a significant support level in a daily timeframe would indicate a reliable daily breakout strategy compared to a trade setup from the middle of a trend. Let’s have a look at the image below, how the price moved up once it got a breakout from a daily candle from a significant support level.

Now look at the image below and see how the price violates the daily breakout to the upside once it reached above 50% of the possible trend.

How to Trade the High Low Breakout Strategy?

This trading strategy is simple as you can make most of the trading decision a day before the movement is expected. The main of this trading strategy is to place two pending orders above or below the yesterday candle. Therefore, you can catch any movement either upside or downside from the previous day’s candle.

Timeframe

We should consider the daily timeframe to determine the high and low prices. Later on, move to the lower timeframe (usually H4) to enter the trade. However, for new traders, it is recommended to stick to the daily timeframe.

Currency Pairs

This trading strategy works well in all currency pairs, including EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, or AUDUSD. However, sticking to the major and minor currency pairs would provide a better trading result. Moreover, you should avoid exotic pairs as there is a risk of the false move by hitting the high or low and reverse back.

Breakout Rules

  • Identify the currency pair that is moving within a trending environment. You can predict the direction of the price based on the market context or support and resistance.
  • For example, suppose the price is aggressively creating a higher high or lower low. In that case, the price will likely continue the current momentum until it reaches the next resistance or support level. Moreover, any breakout from a significant key level often creates a fresh move either upside and downside.
  • When the daily candle of the previous day closes, place a buy stop above the daily high, and a sell stop below the daily low to catch the breakout.
  • Move your stop loss at 50% of the daily candle.
  • For the take-profit level, you can consider the average price of the last three days’ movement. For example, if the daily candle of the last three days shows the movement of 100 pips, 50 pips, and 100 pips, the total movement would be 250 pips (100+50+100). Therefore, the average price of the last three days would be 83 pips (250/3).

Example of Daily High Low Based Trading Strategy

The image below represents the graphical view of the daily high low based trading strategy:

  • In the image above, we can see the price moved up from a significant support level with a daily close above it. A buy Stop is taken once the price had a bullish daily close from the key support level. A similar concept will apply to the bearish market once the price has a daily close from a significant resistance level.
  • The next day, the buy stop is taken, and the price moved to the take profit level. The take profit level is taken by calculating the average price of the last three candles.
  • The stop loss is set at 50% of the previous day’s candle. If the stop loss hit, it will indicate that the price will reverse or consolidate more. In that case, we should wait for a further breakout or move to another currency pair.

Summary

Let’s summarize the daily breakout trading strategy:

  • Identify the currency pair that is moving within a trend or likely to start a new trend.
  • Set buy stop above the candle if the price is moving up from a support level and put a sell stop if the price is moving down from a resistance level.
  • Stop-loss should be at 50% of the previous day’s candle.
  • Take profit will be the average price of the last three days’ movement.

In this trading strategy, the challenge is to avoid correction and choppy market. In that case, you should read the price action to determine the possible movement by measuring the price momentum. Moreover, to get the maximum benefit from this trading strategy, follow strong money management rules.

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, August 18 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Boosted Safe-Haven Plays! 

On the news front, the market isn’t expected to offer any major or high impact economic event until Wednesday. Therefore, the eyes will remain on the COVID19 cases and U.S. FOMC meeting minutes, which are coming out tomorrow to drive further price action in the market.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

  


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD has managed to maintain its previous day winning streak and taking further bids just below the 1.1900 level while representing 25% gains on the day mainly due to the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, triggered by the on-going uncertainty surrounding the much-awaited U.S. fiscal stimulus. 

On the other hand, the US-EU trade concerns turned bitter as the U.S. keeps increasing the hardships for the E.U. goods, which eventually becomes the key factor that capped further upside momentum for the currency pair. In the meantime, the rising coronavirus cases in Germany also turned out to be a major factor that kept the traders cautious. As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.1893 and consolidates in the range between the 1.1865 – 1.1898. 

The U.S. dollar losses were further bolstered by the uncertainty over the next round of the U.S. fiscal stimulus measures, as the U.S. Congress members failed again from signaling any talks on the much-awaited stimulus amid political differences, which continued to fuel doubts over the U.S. economic recovery.

As we all know, the online meeting between the world’s top two nations I,e the U.S. & China, has been postponed without giving any future dates that were initially scheduled for Saturday. Despite this, the conflicting tone remains on the card as the Trump administration keeps increasing the hardships of companies from China. The U.S. diplomats recently announced punitive measures for Huawei in their latest attack for China. However, these gloomy headlines tend t cap further gains in the equity market, which might help the U.S. dollar put the safe-haven bids ahead.

Across the pond, the US-EU trade concerns still not showing any sign of slowing down as the U.S. decided to maintain its 25% tariffs on a range of E.U. goods. This happens after the White House realized that the E.U. is not doing enough to obey with the WTO’s ruling over state aid to Airbus. However, these updates could halt the upward momentum in the currency pair.

At the coronavirus front, the actual coronavirus cases increased to 225,404, with a total of 9,236 deaths. Whereas, the cases raised by 1,390 in Germany on the day against the previous day +738. The death toll rose by 4, as per the German disease and epidemic control center report, Robert Koch Institute (RKI).

At the USD front, the broad-based U.S. dollar reported losses on the day as the possibility of the U.S. Congress agreeing to a fiscal stimulus bill this month has weakened amid political differences, which eventually destroyed hopes for a quick U.S. economic recovery. In the absence of significant data/events on the day, the market traders will keep their eyes on the headlines concerning the US COVID-19 aid package, virus figures, and Sino-American trade.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.1838 1.1860 1.1891
1.1807 1.1913
1.1785 1.1945

 EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD pair has already violated the resistance level of 1.1862, which is now working as a support. On the 4 hour timeframe, the pair is supported by an upward trendline at 1.1880, while the double top resistance stays at 1.1916 level. Bullish bias seems dominant, and it may lead the EUR/USD prices towards the 1.1916 level today.

  


GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

Today in the Asian trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair remains on the bullish track and registered 4th day of winning streak while taking rounds near the 1.3120 and 1.3137 range mainly due to the broad-based U.S. dollar selling bias. That was triggered by the uncertainty surrounding the much-awaited coronavirus (COVID-19) relief package from America. The upbeat market mood also undermined the safe-haven U.S. dollar and contributed to the currency pair gains. 

The upbeat market sentiment backed by multiple factors helped overshadowed the U.K.’s current economic slowdown and distracted from anxieties that the country is likely heading into an unemployment crisis. This, in turn, underpinned the local currency and gave further support to the major. At a particular time, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3139 and consolidating in the range between 1.3095 – 1.3141. However, the pair’s traders seem cautious to place any strong bids ahead of the key 7th-round of EU-UK talks concerning Brexit.

It is worth mentioning that the cable pair has many more to cheer on the day. Be it broad-based U.S. dollar weakness or upbeat market trading sentiment, not to forget the Brexit talks, these all factors are supporting the currency pair for the time being, at least.

At the Brexit front, the hopes of the trade deal next week got further fueled by the UK PM Boris Johnson’s previous comments that the United Kingdom will not accept aligning to rules of the E.U. at the coming round of post-Brexit discussions. Even though the trade deal is agreed between the U.K. and E.U., as per the U.K. Express report, the E.U. fishermen could clash with U.K. fishermen.

The coming round of talk becomes the last scheduled meet; policymakers earlier showed a willingness to extend the talks till September if needed. According to the BBC report, the E.U. chief negotiator Michel Barnier said that the agreement would be needed by October to ratify before the current post-Brexit transition period ends in December. However, the policymaker from both sides keeps alleging each other while citing failures to agree over the key issues like fisheries, level playing field, and jurisdiction rules, to name a few.

Across the pond, the UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak shows a willingness to extend the furlough scheme after rising unemployment rate and hence reopened support scheme for self-employed. However, the improving market mood helped overshadowed the U.K.’s current economic recession fears and concerns that the country is expected to heading into an unemployment crisis. 

The currency pair gains were also supported by the positive report that Imperial College London’s coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine candidate is set for the next phase represents the Tory government’s efforts to control the pandemic.

On the other hand, the U.S. and China continue to struggle over one issue or the other. The Trump administration keeps increasing the hardships of companies from China by adding 38 Huawei facilities to the U.S.’ economic blacklist while also arresting a Chinese spy.

Whereas, the uncertainty over the next round of the U.S. fiscal stimulus measures remain on the cards, as the U.S. Congress members failed again from signaling any talks on the much-awaited stimulus amid political differences, which continued to fuel doubts over the U.S. economic recovery.

As in result, the broad-based U.S. dollar failed to gain any positive traction and extended its previous long bearish bias as doubts over the U.S. economic recovery remain amid coronavirus stimulus package. However, the losses in the U.S. dollar helped the currency pair to take bids on the day. 

 


Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.3075 1.3099 1.3124
1.3050 1.3148
1.3027 1.3173

 GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.3137 level, and the pair was trading in between an ascending triangle pattern that has now been violated. The triangle pattern was extending resistance at 1.3125 level, and above this, the next resistance is pretty much likely to be found around 1.3189 level. At the same time, the support stays at 1.3125 and 1.3085 level. Bullish bias seems dominant today.

  


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair extended its previous session losing streak and dropped further below 106.50 marks mainly due to the broad-based U.S. dollar four-day consecutive weakness, buoyed by the impasse over the next round of the U.S. fiscal stimulus measures. On the other hand, the upbeat market sentiment, backed by the optimism over a potential vaccine for the highly infectious coronavirus, undermined the safe-haven Japanese yen and helped currency pair to limit its deeper losses. In the meantime, the downbeat preliminary readings of Japan’s second quarter (Q2) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) also undermined the safe-haven Japanese yen currency and became one of the major factors that capped further downside for the currency pair. Currently, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 106.36 and consolidating in the range between 106.31 – 106.67.

Despite concerns about the ever-increasing coronavirus cases across the world and worsening US-China relations, the investors continued to cheer the optimism over a potential vaccine for the highly contagious coronavirus disease. Also, supporting factors could be the suspension of the US-China online meeting regarding the trade deal. 

On the contrary, the fears of growing COVID-19 cases in the U.S., Australia, Japan, and some of the notable Asian nations like India continually fueling doubts over the economic recovery. As per the latest report, France recorded more than 3,000 new cases for the second day while Australia’s state Victoria marked the highest death loss, which resulted in an extended state of emergency until September 13. Singapore also reported 86 cases on the weekend. At the same time, New Zealand imposed fresh lockdowns after recording increased cases of Covid-19. However, these gloomy updates kept challenging the market risk-on tone, which might weaken the safe-haven JPY and help limit losses for the major.

Apart from the virus woes, the long-lasting tussle between the world’s two largest economies remained on the cards as China’s ambassador to the U.S. recently gave warning against the U.S. move to send ships to the South China Sea, which could raise further tensions between both nations and harm the trade deal. Whereas, President Trump announced yesterday that TikTok should give its U.S. operations to another company within one-month, or it will be banned in the U.S. due to significant security threats. In return, China’s Foreign Ministry recently said on the day that it would firmly oppose to U.S. actions.

As we mentioned, the downbeat preliminary readings of Japan’s second quarter (Q2) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) also gave some support to the currency pair. The world’s 3rd-largest economy declined by a 27.8% annualized pace during the second quarter of 2020. However, this marked the biggest economic fall on record and was led by the coronavirus-induced lockdown.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
105.7300 106.2000 106.4600
105.4800 106.9200
105.0100 107.1800

 

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY has violated the upward trendline support level of 106.345, as it fell sharply in the wake of increased safe-haven appeal in the market. At the movement, the USD/JPY pair is holding below 50 periods EMA, while the RSI and MACD are in support of bearish trend. The recent candle is closing above 105.344 level, suggesting strong odds of bullish correction until 106. However, the violation of 106 can lead USD/JPY prices towards the 104.600 support level. Good luck! 

Categories
Crypto

Top Four Reasons to Trade Cryptocurrencies

Have you ever wondered if trading cryptocurrency is a good investment? Lately, this type of currency has been growing in popularity and more and more traders have found themselves adding it to their portfolio. There are several reasons why traders invest in cryptocurrency, from predictions about the future to privacy concerns. It is important for new investors, or even intermediate traders that have never invested in this type of asset to understand the reasons why investing is worthwhile.

Cryptocurrency is the Future

At least, many traders believe so. There are some obvious issues with the world’s financial system and many traders think that cryptocurrency can solve those problems by providing us with a more efficient solution. However, there are currently more than 2,000 different cryptocurrencies available. The common idea is that many of these providers will fade over time and we will be left with a few of the most popular options in the end. Bitcoin and Ethereum are worthy competitors that will likely stand the test of time. One should also consider that each provider isn’t working with the same goals in mind. This could help to keep some of those smaller providers afloat.

Privacy

Privacy is one of the main draws of using cryptocurrency. Where banks require personal information, cryptocurrency allows one to make transactions anonymously. Previously, it was discovered that Bitcoin was being used for illicit transactions, such as buying drugs or illegal online services. Although we wouldn’t recommend taking part is this type of activity, this follows the idea that people should be able to spend their money how they want to. Many people want privacy and don’t want banks to be able to track where or how they spend their money, regardless of how vanilla their practices might be.

Avoiding National Banks

Many Americans do not find central banks trustworthy, especially those that lived through the great depression. Banks can manipulate currency, charge insane overdraft fees, or various other fees and interest rates. Intermediary fees are often charged on transactions that need to be sent overseas as well, which cost many traders a lot of money in the long run.

The 2008 crash inspired Bitcoin as an alternative method for those that distrust the banking system. Of course, there are some that prefer to stick with the tried and true method of traditional banking because they know how it works. Many older people would rather not bother with learning how to use a whole new type of currency. However, as time moves forward, the older generation will be made up of those of us that understand the way this currency works, and it will likely grow in popularity.

Volatility

Cryptocurrency is more volatile than other markets, which provides traders with more opportunities to enter and exit the market. There’s money to be made thanks to the large rises in value, but one should remember that the value can also drop significantly as well. Some events will influence these prices, so investors need to stay on top of the news and keep anything that might affect any cryptocurrency’s value in mind.

The Bottom Line

Bitcoin very well might be the way of the future, as more traders move away from traditional banking methods in favor of a more efficient, private way to make transactions online. Volatility in this market can also provide traders with more chances to enter or exit trades, and there is a chance to make large gains thanks to cryptocurrency’s occasional high rises in value. Of course, nobody should feel pushed to embrace cryptocurrency. It isn’t an entirely perfect system and it can fall victim to scammers. Volatility can also cause losses rather than gains because trading this type of currency is risky. In the long-run, we do believe that cryptocurrency will continue to rise in popularity and value, so traders should seriously consider investing with good education and a wealth of trading knowledge behind them.

Categories
Forex Basics

Setting Realistic Trading Goals

Everyone that decides to try out forex trading enters the market with goals in mind. Often times, our goals revolve around turning a profit, like making a set amount in a given timeframe or earning enough income through trading to sustain our lifestyle. Others might want to become one of the very best traders out there and to have their name associated with the likes of George Soros, Paul Tudor Jones, and other trading legends. While being ambitious and setting goals shows that one has the self-determination and positive outlook, many traders set unrealistic goals that lead to disappointment. Some traders enter the market with starry eyes, only to give up on trading for good if things don’t meet their expectations. This is why it is important to set reachable short-term goals for oneself when trading forex. Below, we will provide some real examples of what you should expect.

Have Realistic Expectations for Profits

No matter how inspired you are or what you’ve heard, you can’t expect to become rich overnight or make a lot of profits from a small deposit in forex trading. The best goal starting out is to turn a profit rather than losing money. If you do this, then you’ll be off to a better start than many others. Once you are more comfortable trading, a realistic goal would be to see returns of 5% or less. Eventually, you will improve, and you’ll have more money to invest if you invest your profits, so you’ll see larger gains and you can set higher goals. At first, simply remember to focus on not losing money and know that some profit is better than nothing.

Don’t Think Trading is Easy!

A few minutes of research cannot possibly prepare anyone to become a forex trader. There’s a lot you need to know, so don’t make the mistake of opening a trading account too soon. Predicting market behavior isn’t easy, it takes a lot of knowledge to make good trading decisions. If trading were a quick way to get rich, everyone would be doing it. If you’ve already started and you’ve lost money, don’t give up. Just take a break from trading until you’re better prepared. Don’t think you’re going to become the best trader overnight just because someone you read an article that makes it sound easy.

Don’t Quit Your Job (Yet)

Forex trading inspires many people to quit their jobs. There are a lot of benefits to becoming a trader, including flexibility, not having a boss, being able to work from home or anywhere with an internet connection, and so on. Unfortunately, some people quit their job believing that forex trading will allow them to make enough to sustain their lifestyle. If you’re only starting out with a couple of hundred dollars or even a few thousand, you aren’t likely to make enough money to pay all your bills and take care of a family if you have one. Try out trading part-time for a while so that you can see firsthand how much money you’re going to make. Then you can decide if that amount meets your requirements. Don’t feel discouraged if you can’t afford to quit your job yet because this could be a longer-term goal.

Focus on Being the Best You Can Be

It isn’t about making the most money at first. The primary objective is to learn from your mistakes and to be the best trader you can possibly be. You don’t have to get the same results as someone you know so don’t beat yourself up over the little things! If you don’t understand something, research it. Keep a trading journal to log your mistakes. You won’t become the best trader out there with a little bit of practice, this is a long-term goal that takes a lot of time and hard work. If you aren’t willing to put in the effort, don’t become a trader. If you’re ready to make the commitment, then you should focus on short-term goals rather than only seeing the big picture.

The Bottom Line

Many traders walk away from trading for good because they come into the forex world with unrealistic expectations. This isn’t an easy way to get rich, it takes a lot of hard work and time. Starting with short-term goals and realistic expectations will make it easier to celebrate small victories. Remember that making something is the first goal, even if you don’t make much, you still worked for that profit and you should be proud of yourself. Don’t feel discouraged if you’re feeling more ambitious – eventually, you could make enough money to quit your job, become a well-known trader, or meet any other long-term goal you have set. Simply know that it might take more time to achieve those goals and that you’re off to the right start.

Categories
Beginners Forex Education Forex Assets

The Forex Trader’s Guide to Facebook

Facebook is currently the top social media platform in the world, pulling in more users than other media giants like Twitter, WhatsApp, Instagram, Twitter, and other names you’ve heard of before. The truth is that most of us have a Facebook account, and most of the people that we know do too. It’s almost surprising to find that someone you’re searching for doesn’t have a Facebook account, which provides reassurance that Facebook will continue to attract massive amounts of users, both young and old. Even grandparents have joined the trend and learned to use Facebook to connect with friends and family.

Despite its popularity, Facebook is expected to see a decline in revenue resulting from the coronavirus pandemic. Its true that many of us are stuck at home and might spend more time using the platform; however, some of the company’s revenue sources from other outlets like ads are expected to drop as these companies reel from the profit loss caused by the pandemic.

In order to deal with this, Facebook will either have to offer more ad space, which will bombard users with ads, or the company will need to keep their ad space the same and reduce prices so that companies can afford it. Either way, Facebook is expected to take a loss in the ad department. The current outlook is that the stock’s value will drop by a few percentage points, although it is still too soon to tell. With ads failing to produce as much revenue, the company has stated that many of the services that are being used don’t actually bring in any revenue.

Despite the expected drop in value on the horizon, we do have some good news for those that like Facebook. In the same ways that coronavirus has hurt the company’s revenue, it has also attracted new users and gotten some people into using the platform even though they were previously uninterested. Statistics show that people in Italy are spending up to 70% more time on the app. Once the pandemic is over and things return to normal, Facebook will likely see their profits go up thanks to the increased user base that will allow more people to view ads and use services that bring them revenue.

Potential investors also need to know that Facebook has more than $54 billion dollars in cash and resources, which will help soften or eliminate some of the blow from the current pandemic. This will allow to company to keep many of its workers employed and to potentially hire experienced workers that have been laid off by other companies.

There are some recent developments that produce mixed feelings about Facebook as well. This platform isn’t entirely open to free speech – which is a good and bad thing. It’s good because Facebook won’t allow you to post certain offensive things, but many users believe that the platform goes too far with its monitoring. Users find themselves in “Facebook jail” for sharing or posting certain content if it gets reported. This is basically like a timeout that keeps you from using your account. Facebook has also introduced fact-checking lately and will add comments to posts or even delete things that are deemed inaccurate by the fact-checkers.

Some of this has been the subject of controversy, as fact-checking often revolves around politics. Of course, Twitter has also taken to fact-checking, and the site even fact-checked the president. Some users find these features to be wholesome, while others feel as though they are too restrictive. Lately, the #StopHateForProfit movement has been protesting the platform’s policies, with many retailers deciding to pull their ads from Facebook altogether. Eddie Bauer is one of the most recent companies to drop their ads from Facebook and only time will tell how much momentum this movement will attract

The market has been experiencing increased uncertainty thanks to the coronavirus pandemic. This has affected things on a global scale and provides traders with good and bad opportunities. Right now, Facebook’s stock is down, meaning that it is probably a good idea to invest. It’s true that things are volatile, but Facebook’s stock is expected to rapidly increase in value as things return to normal, thanks to their increased customer base and the return of their ad-driven profits. If you decide to invest in Facebook, be sure to stay updated on company news and to watch revenue reports, while also considering other information to make sure that the stock’s predicted growth does not change. Be sure to stay updated on the recent protests against the company as well, as this could affect future profits if more companies jump on the bandwagon. If all of this seems like too much, then perhaps you should wait to invest until things calm down.

Categories
Forex Indicators

The 5 Best Forex Indicators

Forex indicators use mathematical calculations to measure things like volume, exchange rates, open interest, etc. about a currency pair to let traders know if they should enter or exit a trade. There are a lot of different indicators out there, such as Bollinger Bands, Stochastic oscillator, Relative Strength Index (RSI), and many more. Most people use indicators to help make more confident trading decisions without as much guesswork.

Those with programming skills can create their own software to run on the MetaTrader 4 or 5 platforms, which can make your life as a trader much easier. Of course, those that aren’t interested in developing their own software can rent or purchase indicators for a low price in most cases. If you’re looking at indicators, you’ll want to choose one that is suited for your personal trading strategy. In our opinion, the most useful indicators work with many different strategies while offering clear signals and helpful information. Below, we will go into detail about the five best indicators that are available.

Moving Averages

Moving averages gauge momentum and define areas of support & resistance in the market. These indicators are primarily used to give one an idea of the underlying direction or trend of the market. Traders can also use one or more moving averages for trading signals, for example, the point where a shorter moving average crosses above or below a longer moving average.

There are five main types of moving averages:

  • Simple moving average (SMA)
  • Exponential moving average (EMA)
  • Weighted moving average (WMA)
  • Smoothed moving average
  • Hull Moving Average (HMA)

Moving average is a lagging indicator, meaning that it reacts to events that have already happened, rather than predicting future events. The indicator focuses more on confirmation and analysis.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI has been a favorite trading indicator for many traders since it was created by analyst J. Welles Wilder in 1978. It is a momentum-based indicator that compares the amount of a currency pair’s most recent exchange rate increases against its most recent exchange rate drops. This helps it to identify overbought or oversold conditions in the market.

The RSI is displayed as a line on a graph that moves between two extremes with a reading from 0 to 100. Traders usually interpret a reading above 70 as an indication that a security is being overbought, which will likely result in a trend reversal or corrective pullback in price. A reading of 30 or below would, therefore, indicate oversold or undervalued conditions in the market.

Bollinger Bands

John Bollinger developed the Bollinger Bands technique in the 1980s. The indicator uses a moving average with two trading bands above or below it to add and subtract a standard deviation calculation. Bollinger Bands measures volatility so that it can adjust to market conditions and provide all needed price data between the two bands.

On a chart, you’ll see a centerline, which is an exponential moving average, with two price channels (or bands) above and below it. The two price channels are the standard deviations of the asset that is being looked at. Volatile price action causes the bands to expand, or contract when the price is bound into a tight trading pattern. Looking at examples online can help one to recognize these patterns.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

The MACD indicator is a trend-following, momentum-based indicator that shows the relationship between the two moving averages for an instrument’s price.
The indicator comes up with its calculation by subtracting the 26 period EMA (Exponential Moving Average) from the 12 period EMA, resulting in the MACD line. It also includes a smoothed moving average (SMA) line of 9 periods to signal trades.

The Stochastic Oscillator

A Stochastic oscillator is a momentum-based indicator that compares the closing price of a security against the range of prices it experienced over a specific time period. The primary use of this indicator is identifying overbought or oversold conditions and providing trading signals.
The indicator provides traders with a number that ranges from 0 to 100. Readings over 80 are considered to fall in the overbought range, while readings of 20 or less are considered undersold. Of course, the exact line where one would consider conditions overbought or oversold can fall to personal interpretation. The indicator consists of two lines. One reflects the value of the oscillator for the session, the other reflects its simple three-day SMA.

Conclusion

Throughout this article, we have identified some of the best indicators that one can have at their disposal: moving averages, relative strength index (RSI), Bollinger Bands, moving average convergence divergence (MACD), and the stochastic oscillator. Several of these options are momentum-based and they can help to identify trends and overbought or oversold conditions, or to provide helpful trading signals. If you plan on using any of the indicators we have outlined above, be sure to check out some visual examples online first. On the contrary, if you’d prefer to trade without the use of any indicators, then you should consider naked trading.

Categories
Beginners Forex Education Forex Trading Platforms

The Active Trader Pro Forex Platform

Active Trader Pro is a trading platform that is available through the broker Fidelity Investments. The platform is marketed as being an innovative option that can help traders make more informed decisions to achieve better trading results. If the platform keeps its word, then this would lead to more profits and success for traders who choose to open an account through Fidelity Investments. Take a look at the platform’s features to see how it holds up in the spotlight.

Features:

  • Get insight that can help you determine when to buy and sell through Trade Armor
  • Daily Dashboard feature shows news releases in real-time, earnings announcements, and economic events
  • More than 45 market filters
  • Ability to place simple and multi-leg orders
  • Monitor your portfolio with streaming quotes, order status updates, etc.
  • Create personalized layouts or choose a premade layout if you’d prefer
  • Create and save up to 50 orders that can be placed at the right time
  • Risk-management options with conditional orders
  • Customizable account and watch list views
  • Ability to trade on phone or computer

Also provided are real-time alerts that can be customized for when a stock hits a new high or low, crosses over a key technical event, crosses an unusual spike compared to its historical volume average, and more.

Fidelity Investments

In order to use the ActiveTrader Pro platform, you’ll need to open a trading account through the supporting broker Fidelity investments. Here is a quick overview of the broker’s conditions:

  • $0 commissions on stocks, ETFs, and options
  • A variety of investment choices, including forex, precious metals, stocks & bonds, options, and more
  • 24/7 customer support
  • No minimums to open an account
  • Advice for retirement, planning, and more through Fidelity services

You’ll need to check out the broker’s website for more detailed information about their services and fees. While the above features are ideal, there’s a lot more that should go into your decision to choose this broker. For example, Fidelity offers its very own reward card to certain clients. Be sure to update yourself on all of their conditions for the best idea of what all the company has to offer.

The Bottom Line

The ActiveTrader Pro platform delivers on its promise to help traders make more informed trading decisions by offering a variety of helpful features. You can view real-time news and important economic data, set specialized alerts, gain trading insight through Trade Armor, use market filters, and take advantage of other convenient tools to help improve your trades. The platform even helps traders monitor their portfolio for an overall idea of performance. The supporting broker Fidelity Investments also offers some perks, like the ability to open an account with no minimum deposit and $0 commissions on stocks, ETFs, and options. Some traders might have their eyes set on a more popular platform like MetaTrader 4, but we feel that Fidelity Investment’s ActiveTrader Pro platform is a worthy competitor that meets its goal thanks to its own unique features.

Categories
Beginners Forex Education Forex Basics

The Best Forex Deposit Bonuses in 2020

Several different brokers offer deposit bonuses to clients as an incentive to open and fund a trading account through their company. This isn’t something that is always expected, but it does provide a perk that helps clients get more out of their initial deposit. Traders that only have a small amount to deposit benefit because the broker adds to their deposit and those that make large investments can earn thousands of dollars’ worth of bonus funds through these promotions. Some deposit bonuses are very small, while others are much more generous. We’ve provided the very best bonuses we could find for the summer of 2020 below.

CapitalStreetFX

In one of the most generous promotions we’ve seen, CapitalStreetFX is offering a 650% deposit bonus when you open a trading account with a $1,000 minimum deposit. Be sure to request this promotion from your client dashboard AFTER opening and funding your account, then reply to the acknowledgment email that the company sends to fully apply for the promotion.

Just2Trade

Just2Trade is offering a bonus of up to $2,000 until July 31st, 2020. The bonus amount starts at $50 on any deposit of up to $199, climbs to $100 on any deposit of $200 to $999, and then comes in amounts of $400, $750, and $1,000 before topping out at $2,000 on deposits of $10,000 or more. You’ll need to fill out an application to receive the bonus.

AETOS

AETOS is offering a Welcome Bonus of up to 20,000 AUD ($13,960 USD) to those that open an account, make a deposit, and achieve an outlined trading volume. The smallest bonus reward is on a 25-9,999 AUD deposit with a trading volume of 7.5 lots and the biggest reward is for deposits of 200,000 AUD or more with a trading volume of 4,000+ standard lots within 7 months.

Accuindex

Accuindex is offering a 50% deposit bonus when you open and fund a trading account with at least $250. The maximum bonus reward tops out at $4,000. Conditions surround withdrawals and the bonus is valid for 30 days from the date that it is applied.

VideForex

VideForex is rewarding any trader that opens an account with a deposit bonus from $250 up to an impressive $50,000. The bonus amount is based on the amount of your deposit, with a 20% bonus applied on $250 deposits, 50% applied on $1,000 deposits, and 100% applied on deposits of $3,000 or more. In order to claim the maximum bonus, you’ll need to deposit $50,000 into your trading account.

Xtreme Forex

Xtreme Forex is currently offering a 100% Credit Bonus that tops out at $20,000 that runs indefinitely. This bonus is only applied to new Standard accounts and requires an initial deposit of at least $100. The company does have special rules for withdrawals when a bonus is active on an account.

FX Primus

FX Primus has an ongoing promotion that applies a 100% deposit bonus on deposits of $500 or more for a limited time. Traders can also earn up to $4 cash back for every lot traded. The maximum bonus amount one can earn tops out at $10,000 on a $10,000 deposit. An end date for the promotion has not yet been announced.

*Although we’ve provided a basic outline of the promotions above, be sure to do thorough research on the broker’s website before opening a trading account or participating in any bonus offer. Brokers might apply other conditions regarding timeframes, withdrawals, or other matters that we have not discussed here.

Categories
Forex Daily Topic Forex Fundamental Analysis

Understanding The Impact of ‘Sales Tax Rate’ News Release On The Forex Market

Introduction

The sales tax rate usually comes as an afterthought to many. But for forex traders, understanding how the rarely-talked about sales tax rate could prove useful in the long-run. This article defines what sales tax rate is and further shows how they impact a country’s economic development and, by extension, its currency.

Understanding the Sales Tax Rate

A sales tax rate is the percentage of the total cost of the goods or services being sold. Sales tax is a consumption tax that is imposed by governments or local authorities on the sale of goods and services. The sales tax rate is calculated as a percentage then added on the cost. These taxes are usually collected at the retail point of sale on behalf of the imposing authority.

As structured, any business that is offering goods or services is liable for the payment of the sales tax in a given jurisdiction. Depending on the laws, this occurs is they have a physical location within the jurisdiction, an official employee, or an affiliate.

How Sales Tax Work?

The sales tax is collected at the end of the supply chain, only after resale to the consumer has occurred. Since consumers are the ones paying the tax, businesses receive a resale certificate to show that the sales tax is not yet due. The purpose of this certificate to the resellers is to ensure that no sales tax is paid on purchases of items to be resold.

The administration for the sales tax is triggered by whether or not a particular business has a presence within the tax jurisdiction. To be eligible to collect sales tax from its customers, the business has to apply for a sales tax permit from the relevant authorities.

Depending on the jurisdiction, the goods and services that are eligible for a sales tax vary. Groceries and medications are exempt from sales tax, as are goods and services purchased by nonprofit organizations.

Sales Tax Rate as an Economic Indicator

The sales tax rate can serve as a leading indicator for the shifts in demand and supply within the economy. Higher sales tax rates reduce the purchasing power and, with it, the aggregate demand and aggregate supply. The lowered demand and supply within the economy result in reduced economic activities, which could have an unintended ripple effect throughout the economy. With lowered demand and supply, unemployment as a result of job cuts in the affected sectors is another unintended consequence of a higher sales tax rate.

On the other hand, lowering sales tax increases the purchasing power of consumers, which in turn increases the aggregate demand and aggregate supply. These increases lead to job creation in various sectors and boost a flourishing economy. With a lower sales tax rate, the GDP growth within the country is guaranteed to bring about a strengthening currency as a result of improved economic conditions.

How the Sales Tax Rate Affects the Economy

In general, the sales tax rate has a negative correlation with the GDP. This negative relationship is shown in the scatterplot graph below of the US state sales tax rate against the GDP.

Source: Georgia Tech Library

At its core, sales tax is a revenue stream for the government. Thus, it can be said that a higher sales tax rate increases government revenues. The increase in government revenues increases government expenditure, hence higher GDP. In this scenario, a conflict arises. This conflicts because sales tax is an extra cost passed on to the consumer.

Thus, in general, the sales tax rate reduces the purchasing power of the consumers.  The reduced purchasing power leads to lesser sales taxes collected by the government, hence lower GDP. As a result of the diminished purchasing power, the consumers will spend less, resulting in a reduction in the aggregate demand within the economy. This reduction in demand leads to a reduction in the economic output hence lower GDP.

On the other hand, a lower sales tax rate returns some of the purchasing power to the consumers. They will spend more of their disposable income hence increasing the aggregate demand and supply within the economy. The increase in demand and supply increase the economic output. Furthermore, spending more implies that the government is bound to collect more revenue in the form of the applicable sales tax. An increase in revenue will increase the government expenditure within the economy, thus increasing the GDP.

How Sales Tax Rate Impacts Currency

The strength of any currency is usually seen as a direct reflection of its economic performance. As already discussed, the sales tax rate is considered to be leading indicators of aggregate demand and aggregate supply within an economy, and by extension, the unemployment levels. An increase in the sales tax rate will result in a drop in the aggregate demand and aggregate supply. This drop leads to increased unemployment levels and consequently reduced GDP. Long term currency traders can take their cue from an increased sales tax rate as an impending loss of strength in the country’s currency.

This loss in the currency’s strength can be brought by the expectations that, in the long run, central banks and the government will employ the use of expansionary fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate a stagnating economy. These policies harm the currency.

On the other hand, lowering the sales tax rate signifies that in the long run, the economy will be stimulated to grow. This growth is brought about by increased demand and supply. For forex traders, a country that is lowering the sales tax rate or entirely removing the sales tax can expect its currency to strengthen. The currency strength is because the traders can anticipate that in the long run, the government and the central banks may be forced to employ deflationary monetary and fiscal policies to avoid an overheating economy. These contractionary policies are good for the country’s currency.

Therefore, it can be expected that an increase in sales tax corresponds to a weakened currency against other pairs while a decrease in the sales tax rate corresponds to the strengthening of the currency.

How Sales Tax Rate News Release Affects The Forex Price Charts

The sales tax rate is not an indicator forex traders consider when placing their trades because it is a low-impact leading indicator. However, it is useful for forex traders to know just how much the impact of this low-level indicator is on the price charts.

In the US, the national government does now impose the sales tax. However, the various local governments set their own local sales tax rates. The detailed list of the US states and the sales tax rate applicable in each state can be found on the Sales Tax Institute website. The data on annual GDP growth can be accessed from the World Bank website. A forecast of the sales tax rate through to 2020 can be found on the Trading Economics website.

Below is a screengrab of the Sales Tax Institute showing the most recent changes sales tax rate in Washington.

In the latest release, Washington state lowered the sales tax rate applicable from 8.0 % to 6.5% in an attempt to alleviate the strain on consumers as a result of the Coronavirus pandemic.

Now, let’s see how this news release made an impact on the Forex price charts.

EUR/USD: Before Washington Sales tax rate release July 1, 2020

As can be seen in the chart above, we have plotted a 20-period Moving Average on a one-hour EUR/USD chart. From the chart, the pair is one a steady uptrend, represented by the candlesticks forming above the Moving Average. Before the news release at 1730GMT, the pair can be seen to be on a recovering uptrend. This uptrend can also be observed in the AUD/USD pair, as shown by the chart below.

AUD/USD: Before Washington Sales tax rate release July 1, 2020

For the NZ/USD, the pair is on a steady downtrend for hours preceding the news release. This trend is shown in the chart below.

NZD/USD: Before Washington Sales tax rate release July 1, 2020

For long-term forex traders, the pattern offers an excellent opportunity to go long on the EUR/USD and AUD/USD pairs while short on NZD/USD, since the prevailing market trends would favor them. Let us now see how the price action responded to the release of the sales tax rate in Washington State.

EUR/USD: After the sales tax rate release July 1, 2020

Lowering the sales tax rate should have a strengthening effect on the USD. However, as shown in the chart above, the news release of the sales tax rate had no impact on the EUR/USD since the uptrend continued with the same magnitude as before. The same trend can be observed on the AUD/USD and NZD/USD pairs since the previous trends were no reversed. This trend is shown in the charts below.

NZD/USD: After the sales tax rate release July 1, 2020

AUD/USD: After the sales tax rate release July 1, 2020

It is evident from the after-news charts that the release of the sales tax rate does not have any impact on the price action. Although it is has a significant impact on the GDP, it is a low-level economic indicator in the forex market. Cheers!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, August 17 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eyes Technical Levels! 

On the news front, the market isn’t offering any high impact on market-moving fundamentals. Therefore, we have to focus on the market’s technical side to drive further movements in the market.

Economic Events to Watch Today   

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair closed at 1.18409 after placing a high of 1.18503 and a low of 1.17815. Overall the movement of the EUR/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. The EUR/USD pair on Friday remained in a tight range in European trading hours after the release of GDP figure from the Eurozone, and in American trading session, it started to post gains and ended its day on a positive note.

At 11:45 GMT, the French Final CPI in July remained flat with the expectations of 0.4%. At 14:00 GMT, the Flash Employment Change in the second quarter was recorded as -2.8%, and the Flash GDP in the second quarter fell as expected -12.1%. The Trade Balance from Europe in June declined to 17.1B from the forecasted 18.0 B and weighed on single currency Euro.

The GDP data confirmed the fears and dropped by 12.1% showed the biggest contraction since the quarterly GDP calculation began in 1970 for Germany. It was even more pronounced than during the financial market and economic crisis. The macroeconomic data from Europe weighed on EUR and dragged the pair EUR/USD with itself.

The U.S. Dollar held steady against its rival currency as positive risk sentiment continues to weigh on the safe-haven greenback. The Core Retail Sales in July increased to 1.9% from the forecasted 1.3% and supported the U.S. dollar. At the same time, the Retail Sales data declined to 1.2% against the expected 2.0% and weighed on the U.S. dollar.

In August, the Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment increased to 72.8 against the forecasted 72.0 and supported the U.S. dollar. The data failed to provide any significant trend to the pair, however as the consumer sentiment improved, the U.S. dollar started to pick up its pace against its rival currencies.

Meanwhile, the delay in the release of the next U.S. Stimulus aid package was getting longer day by day. It raised concerns as President Donald Trump accused that U.S. Congressional Democrats had refused to negotiate on the next bill. The pair was also higher on Friday as the risk sentiment improved ahead of the US-China trade deal review meeting scheduled for August 15.

Furthermore, the U.S. Dollar was higher on the ground as the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose continuously from past days. At the same time, the Euro was under pressure because of the massive selling bias in Turkish lira from recent weeks. The Euro underperformed during the lira crisis in 2018, and downside risks suggest that Euro might face sell-off if history was repeated.

The upcoming week will bring the minutes from both the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. Meanwhile, the pair will continue to follow the global risk sentiment; any progress in trade-deal will be beneficial for EUR/USD pair; however, if any tension arises and the US-China issue continues to escalate, the greenback could rise against its counterpart as a safe-haven asset.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.1745 1.1805 1.1900
1.1650 1.1960
1.1591 1.2054

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is facing resistance at 1.1865 level, which is extended by a double top level. Below this, the EUR/USD can extend selling bias until 1.1820 and 1.1782 level. However, the bullish breakout of the 1.1865 level can continue selling until 1.1908. On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD has formed an ascending triangle pattern, which may extend resistance at 1.1866 level. The closing of candles beneath this level is expected to drive selling bias until the 1.1819 level. Let’s keep an eye on 1.1866 level to stay bullish above and bearish below this level today. 


GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD closed at 1.30824 after placing a high of 1.31426 and a low of 1.30452. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. The GBP/USD pair struggled to hold gains as both the U.S. dollar and Sterling has gloomy outlook. Both the U.S. & U.K. economies have suffered from the coronavirus pandemic, and the outlook of GBP/USD pair suggests that it was dominated by the pandemic induced gloomy economic condition.

This week, the GBP/USD pair has jumped between highs of 1.32123 and lows of 1.3007. The high was not too far from the previous week’s high of 1.3176, that was the best level for the GBP/USD pair in six months.

We can say that the GBP/USD pair has managed to sustain the impressive July gains; however, further gains seem unlikely. As the negotiations between the U.K. and Japan came to a halt this week. This came in after U.K. pretended to have better trade conditions than those it had as part of the E.U. Another factor weighed on U.K. currency this week was the biggest contraction in the U.K.’s economy in the second quarter by 20.4%.

The contraction was derived as a terrible consequence of the coronavirus induced lockdown measures. The U.K. government is still struggling with the reopening schedule, and PM Boris Johnson has pledged to open schools from next month.

As worries of the second loop of coronavirus worsened across the globe, the concerns raised over the question of how the government would react. There are speculations that if Britain’s coronavirus situation does not improve, the whole nation could see continuous lockdown.

On Brexit front, although both countries E.U. and the U.K. remain far apart on several crucial issues, Britain’s chief negotiator David Frost said on Thursday that a Brexit deal could be reached in September.

The next round of the talks between both countries will take place on August 18, and comments from both sides suggested that they remain committed to reaching a deal. This has been supportive of Sterling, and hence GBP/USD raised.

Meanwhile, on the data front, there was no data to be released from Great Britain, and as for the U.S., the Retail Sales dropped to 1.2% from the expected 2.0% in July and weighed on the U.S. dollar.

The Core Retail Sales, however, improved to 1.9% in July against the anticipated 1.3% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment also raised to 72.8 points against the expected 72 and supported the U.S. dollar that kept the gains in GBP/USD pair limited on Friday. The risk sentiment also supported the GBP/USD pair on Friday as the traders were cautious ahead of the US-China trade deal review meeting scheduled to be released on August 15.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.3010 1.3077 1.3150
1.2938 1.3216
1.2871 1.3289

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading at 1.3106 level, holding above the 50 periods EMA support level 1.3080. The bearish breakout of the 1.3080 support level can extend selling unto 1.3019 level. The upward channel also supports the GBPUSD at 1.3080, which provides resistance at 1.3134 level. The GBP/USD should confer a bearish crossover of 1.3082 level confirm a strong selling bias in the Cable until then; we should wait and watch. On the higher side, Sterling may find resistance at 1.3175 and 1.3224. Let’s consider selling below 1.3080 and buying over the same with minor stop loss. 


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 106.573 after placing a high of 107.036 and a low of 106.433. Overall the movement of the USD/JPY pair remained bearish throughout the day. The U.S. Congress has failed to boost the economy and health care system, and it caused the U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday to stress for a coronavirus aid package. Trump pushed for state and local government aid and assistance regarding rental payments, more direct payments, and small business loans.

On the US-China front, both countries have delayed a review of their phase-1 trade deal that was initially scheduled for August 15. U.S. granted this time to China to increase the purchases of U.S. exports. The meeting was scheduled to take place on Saturday at the six-month anniversary of the phase one trade deal. The deal took its effect from February 15 as the global spread of coronavirus pandemic started.

On Friday, US President Donald Trump told us that the trade deal was intact and doing very well, but he did not mention anything about the delay in the review meeting. According to some sources familiar with the plans, the U.S. wanted to give more time to China to increase the purchases of the U.S. farm products that were part of the agreed deal. America’s favor given to China was provided to increase the review’s political optics as the U.S. Presidential elections were near.

On the negative side, there was news that Trump has said in a news conference that he was looking at banning other China-owned companies like Alibaba. This raised the fears of renewed conflicts and weighed on the market sentiment that dragged the USD/JPY pair on the downside.

Meanwhile, the Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Zheng Zeguang said that the relationship between the U.S. and China was at a critical juncture, and efforts should be made from both sides to maintain and stabilize the bilateral ties between both nations.

On the data front, at 09:30 GMT, the Tertiary Industry Activity in June from Japan rose to 7.9% from the forecasted 6.4% and supported the Japanese Yen that contributed to USD/JPY pair’s losses of the day.

At 17:30 GMT, the Core Retail Sales in July from the U.S. rose to 1.9% from the forecasted 1.3% and supported the U.S. dollar. At the same time, the Retail Sales in July dropped to 1.2% from the anticipated 2.0% and weighed on the U.S. dollar.

The core retail sales data exclude automobile sales that include about 20% of the retail sales data. The positive core retail sales and negative retail sales indicated that the automobile sector had suffered more than other sectors. The Prelim Nonfarm Productivity for the second quarter raised to 7.3% from the anticipated 1.5% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The Prelim Unit Labor Cost for the second quarter rose to 12.2% against the forecasted 6.5% and supported the U.S. dollar.

At 18:15 GMT, the Capacity Utilization Rate also increased to 70.6% from the expected 70.3% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Industrial Production in July dropped to 3.0% from the anticipated 3.1% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. At 19:00 GMT, the Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment in August rose to 72.8 from the anticipated 72.0 and supported the U.S. dollar. However, the Business Inventories in June came in as expected -1.1%. The Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations in August also remained flat at 3.0%.

After the release of U.S. economic data on Friday, the U.S. Dollar Index that rose to 93.40 earlier in the day, lost its traction and fell by 0.15% to 93.10 level. This weighed on USD/JPY pair, and the pair started to post losses on the day.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
105.8400 106.4500 107.1900
105.1000 107.8000
104.4900 108.5500

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY consolidates in a sideways range, holding over resistance to become a support level of 106.428 level. Over this level, the USD/JPY is opening further room for buying until 107.450 level, but below this, the USD/JPY pair can trigger sharp selling until 105.752. The RSI and MACD are also supporting bearish bias in the pair. The current market price (CMP) of USDJPY is holding above 50 EMA, which extends support at 106.484 and may push the pair higher. Let’s consider buying above 106.480 level and selling below the same today. Good luck! 

Categories
Beginners Forex Education Forex Basics

Is Forex Trading Taking Over Your Life?

Trading can be an addicting thing, both in a good way but also in quite a negative way, it can be in your head no matter what you are doing and you can wake up in the middle of the night wanting to trade, these are signs that may be trading and forex is taking up just a little too much of your life.

This is quite a common thing, especially for newer traders, so we are going to look at ways that you can tell that trading is taking over your life.

You wake up thinking of trading.

When you wake up in the morning, what do you normally think about, it is normally about needing to use the toilet or something that you have coming up in the day or over the next few days. If you suddenly start waking up and are constantly thinking about the markets, what you can trade, or what a certain currency value may be, then you’re probably getting a little addicted to trading. What is even worse is if you manage to wake up in the middle of the night, for no other reason than to think about trading, not a great sign and not something you will be thanking your brain for.

You dream of trading.

So waking up thinking about trading is bad enough, but when trading starts to invade your dreams too, you know that things may be going a bit too far. You will dream of wins, you will dream of losses and you will dream of different ways that you are able to alter your trading plan and strategy to be a little more successful. When it gets really bad, you may well begin to dream of trading pretty much every night, this is the stage where you need to find something else to think about, surely it can’t be that healthy to think about it every time you dram, but then again, at least it means you are interested and it is actually something that you enjoy. Dreams can also give you an unconscious view of how you are actually feeling about your trading at that point in time.

You start to check the financial sections of a newspaper.

If you are a newspaper reader, there is probably a section of it that just makes you roll your eyes, for most that would be the financial section if you have no interest in it, it doesn’t really mean much, it’s just a bunch of numbers and statistics or news about things that really have no effect on your life. Now that you trade though, you are finding yourself looking through that section for things of significance, things that could give you an idea of what you could be trading next. It still might not be interesting to you, but you will constantly find yourself checking it out whenever you have a newspaper in your hand.

You take note of the exchange rate in a currency exchange shop windows.

No doubt you have walked past hundreds of currency exchange shops, you know the ones on the high street allowing you to change your funds from one currency to another. They always have an electronic board pointing out that shows you the currency exchange rate that they are offering, most of the time you take no notice of it whatsoever, but now that you’re a trader, you take note of the exchange rates being offered. Of course, they aren’t the most accurate considering the shops are adding on quite a hefty spread in order for them to make any money, but you still take note of anything that may look out of the ordinary and can use that to research things once home.

You always think of trading.

The last time you watched a film, what were you thinking of? Probably the film right? Well not anymore, now you will be thinking about trading and thinking about trading no matter what you are doing. Watching a film, cooking dinner, washing the car, no matter what you are doing you will be thinking about what your next trade could be or that you hope that the markets will begin to turn soon. It will begin to creep into your thoughts no matter what you are doing, it can be a little annoying at times, especially when the thoughts just won’t go away. You will need to try and distract yourself with something, but that is far easier said than done.

You overthink your trades.

This one is actually about the trading part of trading when you start out, you probably take a while to place your trades, just because you are being so careful. Then you get a bit quicker at it and each trade only takes a minute or so. What can then start to happen is that you get to learn a lot more in-depth things about trading, and so you start to think a lot more about your trades, you may have the perfect setup but then you think of something and so want to check it out. This can add a lot of additional times

You talk to your friends about trading.

Let’s be honest, the majority of your friends have no interest in trading and the majority of them probably don’t know anything about it either. So now that you have learned a bit and have some experience, it is natural to want to talk to people about it, unfortunately, your friends are not the people to be talking to. They have no interest, so anything you say will go right over their head and it could also create a few awkward periods of silence here and there. You should stick to talking to them about things you all have in common, keep the trading talk to those that actually trade, although we don’t blame you if you keep on trying.

You use your trading rules in other things you do.

When you started trading, you would have created a trading plan and a trading strategy, this would have included a number of different rules. When you have been trading for a while, those rules would have been cemented into your mind, so much so that you start to implement those same rules into different aspects of your life. It can make your decisions a little slower to make and could also have absolutely nothing to do with the decision or choice that is being made. You just seem to naturally think of the same rules that have been burned into the back of your mind.

So those are a few of the things that can show you that trading may well be taking over your life. It is natural to have these thoughts and occurrences when you are really into something, learning new things and generally just enjoy doing something. So if trading is getting a grip on your life, don’t fret, just try and limit the amount of it that you are thinking of.

Categories
Forex Psychology

Can Stress Be A Positive When Trading Forex?

You no doubt would have heard people tell you about how bad stress is in trading, how stress is one of the worst feelings that you can have and you should do whatever you can to try and avoid stress completely or ways to help reduce it. However, could stress actually be a positive thing, could it actually help you when trading?

Stress can cause people to break down, it can reduce your attention and can make you make some bad decisions, especially when it comes to trading, however, in life, stress can actually be a good thing, stress is what gives you your fight or flight survival instincts and if you did not have it, you would probably be dead by now, stress will literally save your life.

The problem is that different people will react to stress in completely different ways, stress is like an injection of energy and feelings into your brain, it can make you freeze in place, it can make you jump out the way and it can completely confuse you, what it does to you depends on who you are and so for some, it can be a massive positive, but for others, it can be a disaster waiting to happen.

Before we get into some of the positives of stress, stress ultimately will cause you to automatically make some decisions, which you can imagine that when you are trading, it may not be the best scenario. So when people tell you that when trading you should be trying to avoid stress, you should believe them, while it does have some positives, trading is not something that you want to be making quick and rash decisions when doing, so when you are feeling stressed, if you do not react the right way naturally, try and avoid it completely.

We mentioned above about the fight or flight reaction that people have with stress, there is also the third thing that could happen, you could freeze in place, much like a deer does when it sees the headlights of an oncoming car, the deer freezes as a defense mechanism, although in this scenario it is actually the worst thing that it can do, that is what it has trained itself to do.

Think back to the last time you were in a scary situation, how did you react? Did you try to get away from the situation (run) or did you try to overcome it (fight)? This would be your natural reaction to stress, this is not a trained reaction, this is just6 how your brain automatically reacts to it, but how is this helpful for trading? Depending on your reaction, or your ability to train your reaction, we can use stress to really focus your mind on the thing that is causing it, finding ways to overcome it, rather than avoiding it.

It is important to understand that stress is a part of trading, it will always be there and will be impossible to avoid it completely, it will most likely rear its head when you make a loss, and you will make losses as they are a major part of trading. The thing that we need to do is to train ourselves to use that stress to our advantage. We want to use that stress to focus our mind and to calmly resolve the issues rather than freezing or panicking when something happens which can lead to rash uncalculated decisions and trades.

So now that you have a basic understanding of what stress can do and that losing and stress are unavoidable parts of trading, what do you do with this information? We need to be able to train your mind to react in a certain way when you start to feel some trading stress, a way to avoid making rash decisions, and instead focusing yourself on the issue that is causing the stress.

When we mention reacting to the stress, it does not necessarily mean taking action, for many of us, the best scenario would be to avoid stress entirely, or when it does start to show its ugly head, we are able to get out the way, so being able to recognise those signs is, in fact, a reaction to it, you need to get a good understanding of exactly what stress looks and feels like to you, this will enable you to know when it is starting to approach and will give you time to react accordingly.

For many, simply getting rid of it is perfect, when you start to feel it coming, use that as your time for a break, you always need breaks, so there is no better time to take one, it will give you a break and also help to remove any causes of stress at that point in time.

For those that thrive on stress, you need to use it to focus on whatever is the source, if it is low, use that time to learn why you lost, look at your journal or your trade history, getting an understanding of why something caused you stress will enable you to better understand it and have an understanding of why something happened often enables you to better deal with it in the future should it happen again.

Stress is not an easy emotion to deal with, but it is something that you will come across a lot when trading, in fact, it will be one of the most seen emotions, it is caused by losses, by the markets not moving the way you want it to, money issues, and even a lack of trades. There are many things that can cause it, what is important is how you deal with it, if you freeze or simply begin taking trades without thinking about it, it will only lead to more losses. You need to be able to control it, remove it, or use it to your advantage and focus your mind on the task at hand. Whatever works best for you, it is just important that it is under control, and you do not let this very powerful emotion and feeling get the better of you.

Categories
Beginners Forex Education Forex Basics

The Forex Trader’s Starter Kit

Everyone wants to get into trading these days but there is just so much to it, when you finally get in you will be bombarded with tons of information, far too much for you to work out what it means, let along learn any of it.

To make things a little easier, we have bright together some information and tips on what sort of things you should be focussing on to begin your trading journey, this should help you to get a grip with things a little quicker and to help avoid the information overload that you would otherwise suffer with.

Learn the Basics

Sounds simple enough, and pretty obvious to most, but what exactly are the basics? Learning what a buy order is, what a sell order is, what pips mean, what a stop loss is. These are things that you will be using in your everyday trading life, they are the bones of trading and something that you certainly need to learn early. Going through these basics will give you a good foundation that you can build the rest of your strategy on top of.

Without this knowledge you will not be able to succeed or to learn at a reasonable pace, it will help with working out what your profits will be or what your potential losses may be.

You can get this information from a number of different sources, there are loads of basic guides out over the internet, mentors are available and there are also both free and paid courses. What is important is that you get your information from a single source, to begin with, this will help you learn in a consistent manner. Once you have a decent understanding of what things mean, then you can try looking at some additional sources to see if there are any discrepancies. However, when looking at the basics, most places should be providing you with pretty much the same information.

Develop Your Own Strategy

It can be pretty easy to find a strategy online and then try to follow it, while it may be easy, it is unfortunately not a good way of going about it. Initially, it may work, but when things do not go the right way, you won’t actually know what is causing it to go wrong and as you do not fully understand the strategy or how it works, you will not know how to adjust it in order to meet the changing demands of the markets.

You can start creating your own personal strategy as soon as you gain some of the basic knowledge that we mentioned above. The trading plan and strategy take everything into consideration, your risk, your profits, the currencies to use, and more. It will tell you how to get into the markets and how to get out, it will be your rule book when trading.

Due to this, starting it early will help to cement these rules into your mind and will make them far easier to remember and to stick to, so be sure that you are ready to get your strategy started as soon as possible.

Finding a Broker

There are a lot of brokers out there and you will see a lot of people constantly promoting the one that they are currently using, so it is understandable that it can be quite confusing as to which one you should go with.

The best way of choosing a broker would be to get one that suits the strategy that you are now creating, so you need to match up the requirements of your strategy with the features of the broker If you have a strategy that is going to be taking small profits then you do not want a broker that it offering rather large spreads. So let’s look at what sort of things you should be looking out for to match with your strategy.

Leverage: It is great to have high leverage, but you want to avoid going too high, if you go too high, it can start to put your account at risk as it lets you place trades far larger than you should be, we would suggest not going any higher than 1:500. If your strategy does not need high leverage, then the lower the better.

Commission: Most brokers with low spreads will charge a commission, the range of these charges can have quite a big difference between brokers. You want to avoid those that are charging exceptionally high commissions as this will very quickly start to eat into your profits. Commissions of $6 per lot traded or lower would be what you want to aim for.

Spreads: The spread is the difference between the Ask and Bid price that the broker is offering. Normally lower means better, however, you need to compare them to any added commissions also, most traders are now going for ECN brokers which offer low spreads. If your strategy only aims to take a few pips each trade, then a broker with high spreads will not be very effective.

You should also be looking for various other things that aren’t necessarily related to the strategy that you are using. You want to look around at the various reviews of the broker, whether it is regulated or not. You should also offer a demo account, demo accounts are incredibly important and something that you will require from your broker, it allows you to test out your strategy, so getting a broker with one is paramount to your success.

Get a Demo Account

This goes along with what we mentioned above, you need to get yourself a demo account. You can use this account to test out your brand new strategy, it also allows you to get a feel of how the markets actually work. If you read and learn something new, you can use the demo account to test it out and to see exactly how it works in the real world.

The demo account is invaluable, be sure that you have one and use it as much as you can, it is a fantastic tool for learning.

There is of course a lot more that you can be doing, but those are some of the basic things that you can do and the ways that you can do them to get you started on the right foot.

Categories
Beginners Forex Education Forex Basics

14 Ways You May Be Hurting Your Trading

There are some things that we all do, either consciously or without us even knowing that will have a negative effect on our trades and overall trading strategies, so what are these things and are you guilty of any one them?

Getting out of trades too early: I am sure we have all done this, you are watching the trade move in the right direction, it is moving up and up but then it falters a little bit, our strategy dictates that we should wait, but in the back of your mind you think it could reverse here and so you get out, the trade then continues up and would have hit your take profit level. Getting out early just cost you a little bit of extra profit.

Fear of taking a loss: We all hate to lose, some more than others, especially if you haven’t already calculated losses into your strategy, or maybe you are a very risk-averse person. When we see a trade going in the wrong direction it is only natural that there is a little bit of anxiety that goes along with it. The difficult part though is to leave the trade, a lot of newer traders get this anxiety and will then c,.lose the trade, normally just before there is a turn in the market, you have now made a loss whereas if you followed the strategy, it would have ended up in profit. Your strategy made that trade for a reason, let it work its magic.

Adding to losing positions: This is often referred to as a grid system or Martingale, a trade is going the wrong way but you either do not want to accept the loss or you have a certainty (whether justified or not) that the markets will turn. You add an extra trade going in the same direction as your first, this is common, it can also be classed as loss chasing and is why a lot of gamblers get into so much debt. If the markets do not change, then you are far deeper into the red than you would have been without the additional trades.

Wishing things change: Sometimes, taking no action is the worst thing you can do, especially if you have not placed proper risk management, if you see things going in the opposite directions, don’t just sit there hoping and wishing that it will change, make a decision, can your balance sustain the loss or are you going to risk things, indecision can lead to further and greater losses.

Being too compulsive: The markets can be exciting, we know, but there are times when there are no trades to take. Just because you want to trade does not mean that you should, do not trade just for the sake of trading. These sorts of trades won’t be part of your strategy, you may not have even done any analysis, you just want to trade because you feel like it or want a bit of fun. Don’t do this, it will only lead you down a more gambling route and could lead to a lot of losses.

The joy of winning: Winning is a great feeling, both the fact that you were right and the monetary value that you gain. However for some, this feeling can be a bit overwhelming, in fact, it can be an addiction, if you feel this way, take a step back, allowing this to take over will result in you making additional trades that you should not be doing, these sorts of trades are not analysed, they are impulsive and will only end up in losses, gamblers often have this feeling when they win and it is why they keep gambling, so step back and have a break if you are getting a little too pumped up.

Self-doubt: The strange thing about self-doubt is that it often comes when we are doing the best that we have. A few wins in a row and you may begin to wonder why you are doing so well, it must just be luck, it won’t continue, these sorts of thoughts are more common than you may think. The problem with these thoughts is that they will take away all of your motivation to continue, it will make you want to stop as you are ahead and you won’t be able to continue. If you are following a strategy, just remember that you made that strategy, you are doing well and you certainly do deserve it.

Not following your strategy: You have created a strategy, it is your strategy for a reason, so why would you think about deviating from it? Your strategy has its risk management built-in, so as soon as you deviate from the rules you have created, the riskier our trading becomes which could ultimately lead to losses that you have no justification for. Sometime sit can be boring trading with the same strategy all the time, but when it is, that is the time you should take a break, move away from the markets for a bit until you are ready to follow the strategy again.

Overthinking: Some trades are time-sensitive, they need to get taken at a certain time, but is it the right trade? Am I risking the right amount? Am I sure it is the right trade? These are all things that we ask ourselves and answering them takes up time, by the time you have answered them all, the trade opportunity has passed. So while it is good to question and analyse, sometimes you can overthink things and miss out on potentially profitable trading opportunities.

Excessive trading: Greed, it’s a common trait amongst some traders, especially the newer ones, you have a few wins under your belt and now you want more. So how do you do that? But putting on more trades, or putting larger trades, larger and more than your risk management can handle. Your strategy is built around a certain number of trades or a certain trade size, changing this up and creating larger or more trades can put your account at risk, stick to what is working and do not get greedy.

Afraid to trade: This is particularly prevalent for people who are risk-averse, people who do not like risks may find it hard to make that initial trade, especially if there is a doubt in their mind that they do not know what they are doing or if their trading strategy is not fully complete, so while those last ones would be valid reasons not to make the trade, having the doubts even with a fully fleshed-out strategy can prevent some people from making the trades. Your strategy should cover all possible scenarios, so trust in it.

You are irritable or tired: The vast majority of traders do not trade full time, they trade in their spare time after work or on their day off, unfortunately coming home from a hard day’s work can leave us tired and irritable, this is not the right time to start trading. If you are in a bad mood, making decisions is often not your strong points, it could make you rash and not follow your strategy properly, causing you to make trades that you would not have originally made. If you are feeling irritable or tired, take a rest, the markets will still be there once you have recovered.

Trading more than you have: This is a cardinal sin of trading, you will see warning all over the place, do not trade more than you can afford to lose and it is key. This will lead to other things like greed, emotional trading, lack of discipline, and more in the hope to either make more or get back anything that has been lost. The last thing you want to do is get yourself into some financial issues. If you think you would miss the money if you lose, then it is not money you should be trading with.

So those are some of the major ways that we can limit and damage our trading, some are far easier to avoid than others, but through hard work and discipline, looking after your self and your account can become a lot easier to do. These things normally centre on the fact that you are quite new to trading or the human nature of wanting more, once you have traded for a longer period of time a lot of them would not really affect you anymore, but when you are starting out, be sure to try and recognise any of the signs and stamp it out before it manages to take hold.