Tag: Support and Resistance

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, November 25 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Unemployment Claims Eyed! 

The economic calendar is filled with medium impact economic events such as Unemployment Claims, UoM Consumer Sentiment, and Prelim GDP q/q from the United States on the news front. The market may show some price action during the U.S. session on the release of U.S. Jobless Claims.

The economic calendar is filled with medium impact economic events such as Unemployment Claims, UoM Consumer Sentiment, and Prelim GDP q/q from the United States on the news front. The market may show some price action during the U.S. session on the release of U.S. Jobless Claims.

The economic calendar is filled with medium impact economic events such as Unemployment Claims, UoM Consumer Sentiment, and Prelim GDP q/q from the United States on the news front. The market may show some price action during the U.S. session on the release of U.S. Jobless Claims.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.18897 after placing a high of 1.18959 and a low of 1.18334. After placing losses for two consecutive days, the EUR/USD pair rose and started to post gains on Tuesday amid the rising optimism and risk sentiment surrounding the market.

The safe-haven appeal suffered after AstraZeneca’s latest news that its vaccine could reach a 90% efficacy rate on the second dosage from 70% in the first one. However, the EUR/USD pair traders remained confused on Tuesday and moved the currency pair between gains and losses throughout the day and ended the day with gains as optimism regarding vaccine overshadowed the U.S. dollar’s strength. The U.S. dollar was strong in the market ahead of Wall Street’s opening; however, it fell under selling pressure after the U.S. Consumer Confidence fell in November. 

On the data front, at 12:00 GMT, the German Final GDP for the third quarter raised to 8.5% against the forecasted 8.2% and supported the single currency Euro that added further gains in EUR/USD pair. AT 14:00 GMT, the German IFO Business Climate for November also raised to 90.7 against the expected 90.3 and supported EUR/USD pair. At 19:00 GMT, the Housing Price Index for September elevated to 1.7% against the projected 0.8% and supported the U.S. dollar from the U.S. side. 

The S&P/CS Composite -20 HPI for the year also surged to 6.6% against the expected 5.3% and supported the U.S. dollar that ultimately capped further gains in EUR/USD pair. At 19:59 GMT, the Richmond Manufacturing Index dropped to 15 points from the projected 20 and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added gains in EUR/USD pair. The most awaited C.B. Consumer Confidence from the U.S. was released at 20:00 GMT also fell to 96.1 against the anticipated 97.7 and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added further gains in EUR/USD pair on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the reports that the U.S. President Trump has agreed with the transition process with Joe Biden and that the White House has given the go-ahead to Biden raised the risk sentiment and added further gains EUR/USD pair. Furthermore, the vaccine hopes also kept the market sentiment improved with the news that the new vaccine developed by AstraZeneca, a British Pharmaceutical, can provide 90% protection against the coronavirus and be cheaper against the previous Pfizer and Moderna due to its comfortable storage facility. These reports raised hopes that the global economy will start recovering now, and the riskier asset EUR/USD pair gained traction and started posting gains.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.1851     1.1911

1.1814     1.1934

1.1791     1.1972

Pivot point: 1.1874

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is trading with a bullish bias at the 1.1895 level, holding below an immediate resistance level of 1.1912. On the higher side, the EUR/USD pair may find resistance at 1.1912, and a bullish breakout of 1.1912 level can extend the upward trend until 1.1942. On the 2 hour timeframe, the EUR/USD pair was supported by an upward trendline, which got violated, and now the same trendline is supporting EUR/USD pair at 1.1862. Let’s look for a selling trade below the 1.1866 level today. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.33615 after a high of 1.33802 and a low of 1.32929. The currency pair GBP/USD continued its bullish movement on Tuesday for the 3rd consecutive day. The GBP/USD pair continued getting support from the British Pound’s strength after the rising Brexit optimism in the market. The hopes that a Brexit deal will be reached soon between the U.K. and the E.U. kept underpinning the Sterling and forced GBP/USD pair to remain on the market’s positive side.

Although nothing has been confirmed about the Brexit deal, the talks between both nations have been extended into this week. On Tuesday, a member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee said Tuesday that vaccine news had provided some light at the end of the tunnel.

He also said that he saw a long-term scarring effect from the coronavirus outbreak. He added that it was too early to say that vaccine news will significantly improve the Bank’s economic outlook for 2021. He said that even if the economy came back because of the vaccine, it would have to face the economy-Brexit’s further long-term problem.

On the data front, at 16:00 GMT, the CBI Realized Sales for November came in as -25 against the forecasted -34 and supported British Pound and added in the gains of the GBP/USD pair. At 19:00 GMT, the Housing Price Index for September rose to 1.7% against the expected 0.8% and supported the U.S. dollar from the U.S. side. The S&P/CS Composite -20 HPI for the year also raised to 6.6% against the estimated 5.3% and helped the U.S. dollar that ultimately capped further gains in GBP/USD pair. At 19:59 GMT, the Richmond Manufacturing Index fell to 15 points from the anticipated 20 and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added gains in GBP/USD pair. The most awaited C.B. Consumer Confidence from the U.S. was released at 20:00 GMT, also fell to 96.1 against the projected 97.7 and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added further gains in GBP/USD pair on Tuesday.

Furthermore, the GBP/USD pair was also supported by the latest optimism in the market that had kept the risk-on market sentiment improved. The risk perceived British Pound was supported by the risk sentiment raised by the AstraZeneca vaccine news. Its vaccine was proven to be 90% effective in the second dosage. It was said to be cheaper as it can be stored in an ordinary refrigerator compared to Pfizer, and Moderna’s vaccines that provide 95% protection against the virus were not so easy to store. This optimism also kept the market’s risk sentiment on the upper side and continued supporting the GBP/USD pair on Tuesday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3289     1.3312

1.3274     1.3320

1.3266     1.3336

Pivot point: 1.3297

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD traded bearishly at 1.3340, having bounced off over the support area of the 1.3292 level. On the higher side, the pair may go after the resistance level of 1.3394. Over there’s an upward trendline that is supporting Sterling on the 2-hour timeframe. The Cable below the 1.3292 level may find support at the 1.3240 level while the RSI and MACD support buying. Thus we should consider taking buying trade over the 1.3292 level to target 1.3394. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 104.439 after placing a high of 104.759 and a low of 104.144. The pair USD/JPY seesawed on Tuesday as it moved in an upward direction in early trading hours and reached near 104.76 level while in the late trading session, the USD/JPY pair started to lose its earlier gains and continued its bearish bias. The selling bias in the currency pair USD/JPY raised on Tuesday after posting massive gains on Monday amid the mixed market sentiment. The safe-haven Japanese Yen was under pressure on Tuesday after the positive market mood circulated due to progress in AstraZeneca’s coronavirus vaccine.

The equity market rallied after the latest optimism regarding the 90% adequate protection against the coronavirus with a comfortable storage facility compared to Pfizer’s and Moderna vaccine’s 95% protection against the virus with a difficult storage facility. The market participants continued following the optimism and shifted towards riskier assets against the safer ones.

The equity market was also boosted on Tuesday, with Dow Jones moving up at 30,000 points and the three main indexes in Wall Street rising by 1.5% each. The risk rally in Wall Street added pressure on the safe-haven Japanese Yen and supported the USD/JPY pair’s upward momentum on Tuesday. The USD/JPY pair could not remain on the upper side for long and started to lose its earlier gains after releasing the U.S. Macroeconomic data. At 19:00 GMT, the Housing Price Index for September from the U.S. rose to 1.7% against the anticipated 0.8% and supported the U.S. dollar. The S&P/CS Composite -20 HPI for the year also raised to 6.6% against the estimated 5.3% and helped the U.S. dollar. At 19:59 GMT, the Richmond Manufacturing Index was dropped to 15 points from the forecasted 20 and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added pressure on the USD/JPY pair. The most awaited C.B. Consumer Confidence from the U.S. was also released at 20:00 GMT that fell to 96.1 against the estimated 97.7 and weighed on the U.S. dollar that ultimately added in the losses of the USD/JPY pair on Tuesday.

The decline in Consumer Confidence in November weighed on the local currency U.S. dollar as the rising number of coronavirus cases in the U.S. was raising questions over the economic recovery in the absence of further stimulus aid. The talks were set to resume between Republicans and Democrats to discuss the possibility of delivering an additional aid package in December.

Furthermore, the latest news from the White House that the U.S. President-elect Joe Biden was formally given the go-ahead by the federal agency to begin his transition to the presidency also capped further losses in the USD/JPY pair on Tuesday. The U.S. General Services Administration (GSA), an independent agency, determined that Biden was the outward winner of the election and informed Biden that his transition until January 20 could officially begin. The go-ahead was given by the White House to Biden to intensify the fight against the coronavirus. All these positive news kept the risk-on market sentiment supported and continued supporting the USD/JPY pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

103.76     103.87

103.69     103.93

103.64     103.99

Pivot point: 103.81

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY continues to trade in a fresh choppy range of 104.700 – 104.056 level. On the higher side, a bullish breakout of 104.700 resistance can extend the buying trend until the next resistance area of 104.700 and 105.063 level. On the lower side, the support continues to hold around 104.056 and 103.667 level. The MACD suggests an overbought situation of the USD/JPY pair; thus, we should look for selling trade below 104.598 and buying above the same. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

GBP/USD Bounces off Upward Trendline Support – Quick Update on Signal

The GBP/USD pair closed at 1.33222 after a high of 1.33975 and a low of 1.32636. The British Pound raised to its 10-weeks high level and then gave up some gains against the U.S. dollar in late trading sessions on the back of U.S. dollar strength. The rise in GBP/USD pair came in after the rising optimism over a Brexit deal after the European Commission reportedly told E.U. ambassadors that 95% of a post-Brexit deal had been agreed.

The GBP/USD pair closed at 1.33222 after a high of 1.33975 and a low of 1.32636. The British Pound raised to its 10-weeks high level and then gave up some gains against the U.S. dollar in late trading sessions on the back of U.S. dollar strength. The rise in GBP/USD pair came in after the rising optimism over a Brexit deal after the European Commission reportedly told E.U. ambassadors that 95% of a post-Brexit deal had been agreed.

The GBP/USD pair closed at 1.33222 after a high of 1.33975 and a low of 1.32636. The British Pound raised to its 10-weeks high level and then gave up some gains against the U.S. dollar in late trading sessions on the back of U.S. dollar strength. The rise in GBP/USD pair came in after the rising optimism over a Brexit deal after the European Commission reportedly told E.U. ambassadors that 95% of a post-Brexit deal had been agreed.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.3289 1.3312

1.3274 1.3320

1.3266 1.3336

Pivot point: 1.3297

The GBP/USD traded bearishly at 1.3290, but it now seems to bounce off over the support area of the 1.3292 level. On the higher side, the pair may go after the resistance level of 1.3394. Over there’s an upward trendline that is supporting Sterling on the 2-hour timeframe. Below the 1.3292 level, the Cable may find support at the 1.3240 level while the RSI and MACD are in support of buying. Thus we should consider taking buying trade over the 1.3292 level to target 1.3394. 


Entry Price – Buy 1.33583

Stop Loss – 1.33631

Take Profit – 1.33983

Risk to Reward – 1:1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, November 24 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Consumer Confidence in Focus!

On the news front, the focus will remain on the U.S. Prelim Consumer Confidence and C.B. Leading Index m/m, which are expected to report mixed outcomes and drive choppy movement in the U.S. dollar. Let’s focus on technical levels today.

On the news front, the focus will remain on the U.S. Prelim Consumer Confidence and C.B. Leading Index m/m, which are expected to report mixed outcomes and drive choppy movement in the U.S. dollar. Let’s focus on technical levels today.

On the news front, the focus will remain on the U.S. Prelim Consumer Confidence and C.B. Leading Index m/m, which are expected to report mixed outcomes and drive choppy movement in the U.S. dollar. Let’s focus on technical levels today.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 


 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair closed at 1.18402 after placing a high of 1.19058 and a low of 1.17997. The EUR/USD pair rose to its highest since November 9 and reversed its direction after that, and continued placing losses for the day. The decline in the EUR/USD pair despite the improved risk sentiment was due to the U.S. dollar’s strength. The risk-on market sentiment was supported by the latest optimism from various vaccine developments. In contrast, the strength in the U.S. dollar was derived from better-than-expected U.S. macroeconomic data on Monday.

A British pharmaceutical AstraZeneca announced that its potential vaccine was more than 90% effective in its clinical trials for protecting the coronavirus. The first dosage of its vaccine provides 70% protection, while the second dosage could increase the efficacy rate to 90%.

AstraZeneca also said that it would be cheaper than its rival Pfizer vaccine as it can be stored at refrigerator temperature while Pfizer’s vaccine requires a frozen temperature that could make its cost of distribution higher.

Meanwhile, the risk sentiment was also supported by the reports that the US FDA has approved the antibody-drug used by U.S. President Donald Trump last month during his treatment of coronavirus for emergency use. These optimistic reports gave the EUR/USD pair strength in the earlier session and pushed its prices to their highest since November 9.

On the data front, at 13:15 GMT, the French Flash Services PMI declined to 38.0 against the forecasted 39.2 and weighed on Euro. The French Flash Manufacturing PMI also fell to 49.1 against the projected 50.2 and weighed on Euro. At 13:30 GMT, the German Flash Manufacturing PMI raised to 57.9 against the forecasted 56.0 and supported Euro. German Flash Services PMI remained flat with the expectations of 46.2. At 14:00 GMT, Flash Manufacturing PMI from Eurozone in November raised to 53.6 from the projected 53.2 and supported single currency Euro. Flash Services PMI declined 41.3 against the expected 42.2 and weighed on Euro.

The mixed data from Eurozone related to business activity failed to provide any significant movement in EUR/USD pair while the currency pair followed the U.S. dollar movement after the release of macroeconomic data in the American session.

At 19:45 GMT, the Flash Manufacturing PMI from the U.S. in November rose to 56.7 against the projected 52.5 and supported the U.S. dollar. The Flash Services PMI surged to 57.7 against the projected 55.8 and supported the U.S. dollar. After the release of better than expected Manufacturing and Services PMI, the strong U.S. dollar exerted pressure on EUR/USD pair on Monday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.1855      1.1871

1.1845      1.1877

1.1839      1.1888

Pivot point: 1.1861

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD traded sharply bearish, falling from 1.1866 level to 1.1816 support level, which is extended by double bottom level. Closing of a candle over 1.1816 is supported by bullish correction, but at the same time, the EUR/USD pair may also head further higher until the 1.1866 resistance mark. On the 2 hour timeframe, the EUR/USD pair was supported by an upward trendline, which got violated on Monday, and now the same trendline is supporting EUR/USD pair. Let’s look for a selling trade below the 1.1866 level today. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair closed at 1.33222 after a high of 1.33975 and a low of 1.32636. The British Pound raised to its 10-weeks high level and then gave up some gains against the U.S. dollar in late trading sessions on the back of U.S. dollar strength. The rise in GBP/USD pair came in after the rising optimism over a Brexit deal after the European Commission reportedly told E.U. ambassadors that 95% of a post-Brexit deal had been agreed. The deal might be announced over the coming days to allow sufficient time for ratification by the European Parliament before year-end, possibly just the week after Christmas.

Meanwhile, on the data front, at 14:30 GMT, the Flash Manufacturing PMI from the U.K. raised to 55.2 against the forecasted 50.5 and supported British Pound and supported GBP/USD pair. The Flash Services PMI for November from the U.K. also raised to 45.8 against the forecasted 43.2 and supported British Pound and added gains in the GBP/USD pair.

From the U.S. side, at 19:45 GMT, the Flash Manufacturing PMI from the U.S. in November surged to 56.7 against the anticipated 52.5 and supported the U.S. dollar that capped further gains in GBP/USD pair. The Flash Services PMI rose to 57.7 against the forecasted 55.8 and supported the U.S. dollar, and GBP/USD pair lost some of its gains.

Meanwhile, on Monday, the Governor of Bank of England Andrew Bailey said that the long-term effects of a no-deal Brexit on the economy would be worse than the coronavirus pandemic’s long-term impacts. He added that he was relatively optimistic about the economy’s ability to recover from the coronavirus outbreak, but it would be more difficult to adjust with the U.K. trading with the E.U. on World Trade Organization terms.

These concerns added pressure on risk-on market sentiment and made GBP/USD pair to lost some of its earlier daily losses.

Furthermore, Prime Minister Boris Johnson confirmed that the England lockdown would be lifted on December 2, though regional restrictions would be kept to stop coronavirus spread. The second lockdown miscued the U.K. economy that the economy could slip into a double-dip recession and these concerns also added pressure on the GBP/USD pair that lost some of its earlier daily gains.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.3289      1.3312

1.3274      1.3320

1.3266      1.3336

Pivot point: 1.3297

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD traded bearishly at 1.3290, but it now seems to bounce off over the support area of the 1.3292 level. On the higher side, the pair may go after the resistance level of 1.3394. Over there’s an upward trendline that is supporting Sterling on the 2-hour timeframe. Below the 1.3292 level, the Cable may find support at the 1.3240 level while the RSI and MACD are in support of buying. Thus we should consider taking buying trade over the 1.3292 level to target 1.3394. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair closed at 104.544 after placing a high of 104.635 and a low of 103.681. The USD/JPY pair rose by about 100 pips on Monday after the U.S. dollar became strong across the board. The strength of the greenback was derived from the release of macroeconomic data from the U.S.

At 19:45 GMT, the Flash Manufacturing PMI from the U.S. in November raised to 56.7 against the estimated 52.5 and supported the U.S. dollar. The Flash Services PMI surged to 57.7 against the estimated 55.8 and supported the U.S. dollar that added gains in the USD/JPY pair on Monday.

The better-than-expected U.S. business activity data showed that it was expanded in November at its fastest rate in more than five years and boosted optimism about the U.S. economy’s health that lifted the U.S. dollar, and provided strength to the rising USD/JPY pair.

Other than economic data, the USD/JPY pair was also supported by the market’s rising risk sentiment. The risk sentiment was supported by the latest optimism regarding vaccine developments from different countries. AstraZeneca, the British pharmaceutical, said that its vaccine was 70% effective on the first dosage and 90% effective on the second dosage.

It also reported that it would be cost-effective also as it does not require the frozen temperature to be stored and can only be stored in a refrigerator. These optimistic reports added strength in the risk sentiment and weighed on the safe-haven Japanese Yen that ultimately added strength in the USD/JPY pair.

On Monday, another positive news was that Regeneron’s coronavirus antibody cocktail that President Donald Trump used last month when he was hospitalized with COVID-19 had been approved for an emergency authorization use by the US FDA. There were also reports that the vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNtech will likely be approved by the US FDA by December 11 and will be available for Americans to use.

With more progress in the vaccine area, lifting the lockdown restrictions increased along with the chances for an economic recovery that raised the risk sentiment and weighed on the safe-haven Japanese Yen that added gains in the USD/JPY pair. However, the pandemic hit economy still needs further support from governments to go through the crisis, and that is why investors were hopeful that the Fed and European Central Banks would likely issue more stimulus aid in December. The USD/JPY pair will likely rise as the risk sentiment has been improved after vaccine development progress.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

103.76      103.87

103.69      103.93

103.64      103.99

Pivot point: 103.81

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY has violated a choppy range of 104.056 – 103.667 level. On the higher side, a bullish breakout of 104.056 resistance can extend the buying trend until the next resistance area of 104.59 and 105.063 level. On the lower side, the support continues to hold around 104.056 and 103.667 level. The MACD suggests an overbought situation of the USD/JPY pair; thus, we should look for selling trade below 104.598 and buying above the same. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

USD/CAD Choppy Trading in Play – Brace for a Breakout! 

The USD/CAD closed at 1.30921 after placing a high of 1.30967 and a low of 1.30387. The USD/CAD pair remained on the upward momentum on Friday despite the strength in WTI Crude Oil prices and the Canadian Dollar amid the positive optimism regarding the vaccines. The optimism surrounding the vaccine development from Pfizer and Moderna was also followed by Oxford, the Russian Sputnik V, and China’s Sinovac and raised the market’s risk-on sentiment that supported the risk perceived USD/CAD pair on Friday.

The USD/CAD closed at 1.30921 after placing a high of 1.30967 and a low of 1.30387. The USD/CAD pair remained on the upward momentum on Friday despite the strength in WTI Crude Oil prices and the Canadian Dollar amid the positive optimism regarding the vaccines. The optimism surrounding the vaccine development from Pfizer and Moderna was also followed by Oxford, the Russian Sputnik V, and China’s Sinovac and raised the market’s risk-on sentiment that supported the risk perceived USD/CAD pair on Friday.

The USD/CAD closed at 1.30921 after placing a high of 1.30967 and a low of 1.30387. The USD/CAD pair remained on the upward momentum on Friday despite the strength in WTI Crude Oil prices and the Canadian Dollar amid the positive optimism regarding the vaccines. The optimism surrounding the vaccine development from Pfizer and Moderna was also followed by Oxford, the Russian Sputnik V, and China’s Sinovac and raised the market’s risk-on sentiment that supported the risk perceived USD/CAD pair on Friday.

On the data front, at 18:30 GMT, the Core Retail Sales from Canada raised to 1.0% against the expectations of 0.0% and supported the Canadian Dollar. For September, the Retail Sales also grew to 1.1% from the forecasted 0.2% and kept the Canadian Dollar. The NHPI for October came in line with the projection of 0.8%. At 18:32 GMT, the Corporate Profits for the quarter from Canada also came in line with the anticipations of 44.9%.

The Canadian Dollar was strong across the board on Friday due to supportive macroeconomic data and the rising Crude oil prices. The WTI crude oil was higher on Friday above the $42.5 level after the increased optimism about the coronavirus vaccines from across the world. The rising crude oil prices also supported the commodity-linked currency Loonie that capped further USD/CAD pair gains.

Meanwhile, the Canadian health officials warned that daily coronavirus infections could reach 60K per day by the end of December from their current level of 4.8K if people continue to increase their number of daily contacts. The Canadian PM Justin Trudeau said that Canada saw a massive spike in cases and that there was a risk that hospitals could get overwhelmed. He also said that it was frustrating that Canadians would have to do more to contain the virus from what they did weeks ago. These virus tensions across the North kept the Canadian Dollar weak and supported the rising USD/CAD prices on Friday. 

On the US dollar front, the Dollar was strong across the board as the US Federal Reserve Chairman refrained from providing any clues about further easing in the upcoming Fed meeting and supported the USD/CAD pair’s upward momentum.


Daily Technical Levels:

Support Resistance

1.3039 1.3114

1.3007 1.3157

1.2964 1.3189

Pivot point: 1.3082

The USD/CAD pair is trading sideways in between the narrow range of 1.3120 – 1.3045 level. Investors seem to wait for a solid reason to trigger a breakout of the choppy range. The idea will be take a sell USD/CAD pair below 1.3045 level until 1.2937. Conversely, the continuation of a bullish trend over 1.3120 can lead the USD/CAD pair towards 1.3245. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, November 23 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – PMI Figures in Highlights! 

On the news front, eyes will remain on the Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI figures from the Eurozone, the U.K., and the United States. Almost all economic figures are expected to perform better than previous months, perhaps due to a lift of lockdown. Price action will depend upon any surprise changes in the PMI figures.

On the news front, eyes will remain on the Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI figures from the Eurozone, the U.K., and the United States. Almost all economic figures are expected to perform better than previous months, perhaps due to a lift of lockdown. Price action will depend upon any surprise changes in the PMI figures.

On the news front, eyes will remain on the Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI figures from the Eurozone, the U.K., and the United States. Almost all economic figures are expected to perform better than previous months, perhaps due to a lift of lockdown. Price action will depend upon any surprise changes in the PMI figures.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair closed at 1.18563 after placing a high of 1.18906 and a low of 1.18495. Despite vaccine-related optimism and improved risk sentiment in the market, the currency pair EUR/USD dropped on Friday amid the continuous rise in the number of coronavirus cases along with the latest disagreement between the Fed and U.S. Treasury related to the unused funds of emergency lending programs.

On Thursday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin sent a letter to Fed’s Chair Jerome Powell and asked him to return the unused funds in five emergency lending programs that will expire in December. Mnuchin claimed that those funds could be used for other purposes by Congress. Mnuhcin also asked Powell to extend the other four emergency credit facilities.

Meanwhile, the U.S. coronavirus situation got worse as November was not still over, but there have been almost 3 million new cases reported. It is about a quarter of all the U.S. cases since the beginning of the pandemic. The U.S. hospitalization rate was getting higher to an alarming level as it was forcing the health care system to reduce care for even non-COVID-19 patients.

Given the coronavirus situation in the U.S., many states announced restrictive measures to control the spread. On the European side, the situation was a bit under control after the strict lockdown measures. However, the old continent’s situation in Europe was far from getting better, and market players were worried that a steep economic downturn would be seen in the last quarter of the year.

These tensions raised the concerns that economic recovery was under pressure and supported the safe-haven appeal that ultimately weighed on the risk perceived EUR/USD pair on Friday. Furthermore, central banks’ calls for another round of stimulus measures to help support the economy started to increase. In response, the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has been refrained to give any hint about any action in December whereas, his European counterpart Christine Lagarde has said that a large easing package will be coming in the next meeting. Lagarde’s comments also weighed on the single currency that ultimately added losses in the EUR/USD pair on Friday.

At 12:00 GMT, The German PPI for October remained flat at 0.1% on the data front. At 19:50 GMT, the Consumer Confidence also came in line with the expectations of -18. There was no macroeconomic figure to be released from the U.S., which means the pair EUR/USD was unaffected by any data on Friday.

Meanwhile, the vaccine news from Pfizer and BioNtech that they were going to apply for US FDA approval for emergency authorization use of their vaccine raised the risk sentiment in the market. Combined with this optimism, the other companies, including Moderna, Oxford, the Russian Sputnik V, and China’s Sinovac, also provided updates about the vaccine’s efficacy and supported the market’s risk of improved sentiment that ultimately capped further losses in the EUR/USD pair.


Daily Technical Levels

Support  Resistance

1.1831      1.1898

1.1790      1.1924

1.1764      1.1965

Pivot point: 1.1857

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is trading with a bearish bias at the 1.173 level, forming an ascending triangle on the 2-hour timeframe. On the lower side, the pattern supports the EUR/USD pair at 1.1850, and here violation of the 1.1850 level can extend the EUR/USD pair towards the 1.1816 level. On the higher side, a bullish breakout of the 1.1889 level can extend the buying trend until the 1.1924 level. The bullish bias remains dominants today as the MACD and 50 periods EMA support a bullish trend. Let’s consider taking a buying trade over 1.1889 with a take profit of 1.1924 level. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair closed at 1.32891 after placing a high of 1.32977 and a low of 1.32403. GBP/USD remained bullish on Friday amid the latest Brexit optimism and the coronavirus vaccine’s rising hopes. The currency pair remained on the upper track this week as Brexit dominated the scene and supported the British Pound. The coronavirus situation in the U.K. was improving as the U.K. was set to announce a wide easing of coronavirus rules for a week at Christmas.

Next week, Boris Johnson will announce a plan for an easing of rules on Covid, and he also warned that the level of restrictions for the rest of next month would depend on how well the public obey the current lockdown in England that will end on 2nd December. Brexit headlines were, however, contradictory during the week as PM Boris Johnson signaled that the U.K. would prosper without a deal and E.U. officials indicated that talks could collapse. The British press talked about a French compromise on the fisheries issue that a key sticking point in the Brexit deal. After the French compromise on fisheries, the Brexit optimism continued supporting the British Pound and added gains in GBP/USD pair.

Another factor involved in the GBP/USD’s bullish sentiment, Pfizer and BioNtech said that they would apply for approval of emergency use of their vaccine on Friday, which also helped risk sentiment improve and support the British Pound. Following Pfizer, Moderna also said that its vaccine was 94.5% effective in preventing the coronavirus and helped raise the market’s optimism that also supported the GBP/USD pair’s upward trend.

On the data front, at 05:01 GMT, GfK Consumer Confidence remained flat with the forecasted -33. At 12:00 GMT, the Retail Sales from the U.K. for October raised to 1.2% against the expected -0.3% and supported British Pound that added further gains in GBP/USD pair. The Public Sector Net Borrowing declined to 21.6 against the forecasted 31.6B and kept British Pound and added improvements in the currency pair GBP/USD pair.

Meanwhile, in the U.S., the need for a stimulus package increased with the rising coronavirus cases, but Fed Chairman Jerome Powell refrained from giving any hint about further aid in the upcoming December meeting. The hospitalization in the U.S. for coronavirus patients increased to a worse level, forcing many state governors to announce restrictive measures to control the virus’s spread. It weighed on the U.S. dollar and helped GBP/USD pair to post gains on Friday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3211      1.3296

1.3161      1.3331

1.3127      1.3381

Pivot point: 1.3246

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD continues trading bullish at the 1.3307 level, holding over the 1.3303 support level, supporting the buying trend. The recent bullish engulfing candle on the 2-hour timeframe can lead Sterling further higher until the 1.3368 area. The MACD and RSI have crossed over on the higher side, suggesting further odds of bullish trend continuation. Typically such kind of ascending trend breakout can lead the pair further higher, so let’s consider taking buying trade over the 1.3307 level today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair closed at 103.823 after placing a high of 103.909 and a low of 103.700. After falling for six consecutive days, the USD/JPY pair posted small gains on Friday amid the reports about the resumption of the U.S. fiscal aid talks. The small uptick in the USD/JPY pair after massive selling in the previous six days could be solely attributed to optimism led by reports that U.S. lawmakers have agreed to resume talks on another coronavirus stimulus package.

The positive sentiment was somehow offset by the U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s decision to end some pandemic relief for struggling businesses. This came in after the tensions increased about the potential economic fallout from the continuous rise in new coronavirus cases, which held the U.S. dollar bulls from placing aggressive bets.

Meanwhile, the safe-haven appeal came back in the market after the number of coronavirus cases started to increase in the U.S. On Thursday, the U.S. reported about 185,000 cases of coronavirus in a single day and set a record. The number of hospitalized patients in the U.S. also increased by almost 50% in just the last two weeks that eventually urged many states to impose new restrictions to stop the virus from spreading further.

Meanwhile, the Governor of California imposed a 10 PM curfew in most populated U.S. states that will take effect from Saturday. Moreover, the Centre for Disease Control advised Americans not to travel on Thanksgiving holiday as it would increase the infection rate. These concerns added uncertainty in the market and raised a safe-haven appeal that supported the safe-haven Japanese Yen and capped the USD/JPY pair’s gains on Friday.

There was no macroeconomic data from the U.S. on Friday, and from Japan, at 04:30 GMT, the National Core CPI for the year from Japan remained flat with the anticipations of -0.7%. The macroeconomic data failed to impact on currency pair USD/JPY.

Pfizer and BioNtech announced on Friday that they would apply on the day to the US FDA for approval of emergency use of their vaccine on the vaccine front. This, combined with the other companies, included AstraZeneca and Oxford University’s latest reports of their vaccine’s efficacy, added strength in the risk sentiment, and supported the USD/JPY pair’s gains on Friday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

103.56      104.07

103.38      104.40

103.04      104.58

Pivot point: 103.89

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY extends its bearish trend below the 104.102 level, consolidating within a narrow trading range 104.102 – 103.650. On the lower side, the USD/JPY pair is likely to find support at the 103.650 level, and violation of this level can also extend further selling bias until 103.227. On the higher side, the USD/JPY safe-haven pair may find resistance at 104.400 and may help us capture a selling trades below this level as the MACD and RSI support the selling trend today. Good luck! 

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, November 20 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eyes on Retail Sales!

The broad-based U.S. dollar failed to stop its overnight losses and remain bearish on the day mainly due to the mixed U.S. Stimulus story. Moreover, the doubts over the U.S. economic recovery in the wake of coronavirus resurgence also weigh on the U.S. dollar. On the news front, eyes will remain on U.K.’s and Canada’s core retail sales to determine further market trends. 

The broad-based U.S. dollar failed to stop its overnight losses and remain bearish on the day mainly due to the mixed U.S. Stimulus story. Moreover, the doubts over the U.S. economic recovery in the wake of coronavirus resurgence also weigh on the U.S. dollar. On the news front, eyes will remain on U.K.’s and Canada’s core retail sales to determine further market trends. 

The broad-based U.S. dollar failed to stop its overnight losses and remain bearish on the day mainly due to the mixed U.S. Stimulus story. Moreover, the doubts over the U.S. economic recovery in the wake of coronavirus resurgence also weigh on the U.S. dollar. On the news front, eyes will remain on U.K.’s and Canada’s core retail sales to determine further market trends. 

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair managed to stop its previous day losing streak and remain bullish around the 1.1886 level mainly due to the broad-based U.S. dollar selling bias, triggered by the cautious sentiment around the U.S. stimulus story, which ultimately lends support to the currency pair. However, Mnuchin’s call to recollect funds allocated to Federal Reserve, which eventually weighed on the market trading sentiment, failed to provide any support to the greenback as the Republican heavyweight McConnell recently showed readiness to resume the discussions with the Democrats on a new COVID-19 relief package, which ultimately undermined the U.S. dollar. 

That’s very surprising as the U.S. dollar usually draws bids alongside losses in the equities market. On the contrary, the buying interest around the single currency was capped by the intensifying virus fugues in Europe, which eventually becomes the key factor that has been capped further upside in the currency pair. At the moment, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.1888 and consolidating in the range between the 1.1865 – 1.1891.

The equity market has been declining since the day started amid mixed concerns over the U.S. stimulus story. The Mnuchin’s asked the Federal Reserve to return the remaining coronavirus stimulus funds, which could limit the central bank’s capacity to give additional support to businesses at a time when the coronavirus second wave is accelerating. Let me remind you that these funds were meant for global lending to local government, non-profits, businesses. These factors have been weighing on the market trading sentiment, which could be considered as the main factors that cap further downside in the safe-haven U.S. dollar losses.

On the contrary, Republican heavyweight McConnell recently showed a willingness to continue the negotiations with the Democrats on a new COVID-19 relief package. This news is negative for the U.S. dollar, as a stimulus package would have the effect of reducing the U.S. dollar.

As in result, the broad-based U.S. dollar failed to stop its overnight losses and remain bearish on the day mainly due to the mixed U.S. Stimulus story. Moreover, the doubts about the U.S. economic recovery in the wake of coronavirus resurgence also weigh on the U.S. dollar. Thus, the U.S. dollar losses could also be a key factor that kept the currency pair higher. Meantime, the dollar index unchanged at 92.306 (=USD), off Thursday’s low of 92.236, though it is still down 0.3% on the week.

On the bearish side, the intensifying market worries regarding the continuous hike in new coronavirus cases in Europe and the United States keep fueling the doubts over the global economic recovery through imposing back to back lockdown restrictions on economic and social activity, which eventually weighed on the shared currency and becomes the key factor that kept the lid on any additional gains in the currency pair. 

In the absence of significant data/events on the day, the market traders will keep their eyes on the ongoing drama surrounding the U.S. stimulus package. In the meantime, the risk catalyst like geopolitics and the virus woes, not to forget the Brexit, will also be key to watch for a fresh direction. 

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.1836       1.1880

1.1820       1.1908

1.1791       1.1924

Pivot point: 1.1864

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

On Friday, the EUR/USD is trading with a bearish bias at the 1.1844 level, having violated an upward trendline on the hourly chart. On the lower side, the support stays at 1.1832, and below this, the EUR/USD may find next support at 1.1814. On the higher side, the resistance can be found at the 1.1867 level. The bullish bias remains dominants today as the MACD and 50 periods EMA support a bullish trend. We are already holding a buying trade from yesterday; therefore, you are advised to follow our forex signals page for more updates on the EUR/USD pair. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

During Friday’s European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair managed to gain positive traction for the second straight session and refresh the intra-day high around closer to 1.3300 level mainly due to the broad-based U.S. dollar fresh weakness, backed by the doubts over the next round of the U.S. fiscal stimulus measures, which eventually undermined the U.S. dollar and contributed to the currency pair gains. 

On the contrary, the worsening coronavirus (COVID-19) conditions in the U.S. and Europe raised the fears of global economic recovery, which could be considered one of the key factors that kept the lid on any additional gains in the currency pair. In the meantime, the gains in the currency pair were also capped by negative Brexit news. At a particular time, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3275 and consolidating in the range between 1.3247 – 1.3288.

According to the latest report, the European Union (E.U.) prepares for no-deal Brexit plans after the discussions’ dragging. The fears of no-deal Brexit were further bolstered after E.U.’s Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier self-isolated after a member of his team contracted the infection.

Despite the fears of no-deal Brexit and the Sino-American skirmish, not to forget the record single-day increase in COVID-19 cases, the currency pair managed to gain positive traction amid a weaker U.S. dollar. At the USD front, the broad-based U.S. dollar failed to gain any positive traction and edged lower on the day as doubts over the U.S. economic recovery remain amid the coronavirus crisis. The losses in the U.S. dollar kept the currency pair higher. Meantime, the dollar index unchanged at 92.306 (=USD), off Thursday’s low of 92.236, though it is still down 0.3% on the week.

In the absence of significant data/events on the day, the market traders will keep their eyes on the ongoing drama surrounding the U.S. stimulus package. In the meantime, the risk catalyst like geopolitics and the virus woes, not to forget the Brexit, will also be key to watch for a fresh direction. 

Daily Technical Levels

Support    Resistance

1.3155       1.3236

1.3118       1.3280

1.3073       1.3317

Pivot point: 1.3199

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

Most technical levels are the same as Sterling didn’t make any significant change in the market. The GBP/USD pair is trading bullish at the 1.3279 level, holding over the 1.3227 support level, which is extended by an upward trendline on a 2-hour timeframe. The Cable is likely to face immediate resistance at the 1.3297 area, which will be confirmed if the candle starts closing below this level. However, the bullish breakout of the 1.3297 level can drive further upside movement until the 1.3370 level today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

A day before, the USD/JPY pair was closed at 103.795 after placing a high of 104.207 and a low of 103.650. The currency pair USD/JPY remained bearish for the 5th consecutive session on Wednesday and dragged its prices below the 103.700 level. The USD/JPY pair was extending its losses due to the U.S. dollar weakness on Wednesday despite the latest optimism regarding the coronavirus vaccine. On Wednesday, Pfizer announced that its vaccine was 95% effective in its study and planning to seek authorization within days.

This news added to the market’s risk sentiment and supported the equity market by providing a 0.45% gain to Dow Jones and 0.04% to NASDAQ. The latest news from Pfizer and BioNtech failed to impress the market, and the pair USD/JPY continued following the U.S. dollar’s weakness on Wednesday. The currency pair was under pressure as the coronavirus situation was getting worse day by day in the U.S. as the death toll surpassed 250,000 level in the major economy. According to Johns Hopkins University, the coronavirus has cost almost 250,180 American lives so far, and the count was increasing day by day. This raised fears that more restrictions could be imposed in many states, which would slow down the economic recovery. These fears weighed in the local currency U.S. dollar, and hence, USD/JPY remained under pressure for the 5th consecutive session on Wednesday.

Given the rising number of infections in the country, the States like California and Illinois stretched their restrictions to battle the rising number of cases as any financial aid package was not close to being delivered by Congress. The rising number of coronavirus cases in the U.S. has forced U.S. officials to announce that public schools in New York City will close again on Thursday as the city has reached a 3% coronavirus test positivity rate. These fears also kept the U.S. dollar under pressure on Wednesday.

The House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer urged the Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to resume talks related to the coronavirus relief package. However, McConnell was insisting on a targeted package. The U.S. dollar came under further pressure after the hopes for the talks for further stimulus package increased and weighed on the USD/JPY pair.

On the data front, at 02:00 GMT, the TC Long Term Purchases surged to 108.9B from the expected 41.5B and supported the U.S. dollar. At 18:30 GMT, the Building Permits for October came in line with the projections of 1.55M. The Housing Starts rose to 1.53M from the expected 1.45M and supported the U.S. dollar that ultimately capped further losses in the USD/JPY on Wednesday. On the Japanese side, the Trade Balance for October raised to 0.31T against the 0.11T and supported the Japanese Yen that added further pressure on the USD/JPY pair on Wednesday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support    Resistance

103.58       104.16

103.32       104.48

102.99       104.74

Pivot point: 103.90

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY extends its bearish trend below the 104.430 level, falling from the 104.850 support area. On the lower side, the USD/JPY pair is likely to find support at the 103.800 level, and violation of this level can also extend further selling bias until 103.227. On the higher side, the USD/JPY safe-haven pair may find resistance at 104.400 and may help us capture a selling trades below this level as the MACD and RSI support the selling trend today. Good luck! 

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Forex Signals

Choppy Session Continues in USD/CAD – Brace for a Breakout! 

The USD/CAD closed at 1.30858 after placing a high of 1.31174 and a low of 1.30341. The USD/CAD pair declined on Wednesday amid the broad-based US dollar weakness and the Canadian dollar’s strength on the day. The risk sentiment was improved on Wednesday after Pfizer and BioNtech said that their vaccine was 95% effective in their study. They were going to seek approval from the US for emergency authorization of vaccine in the coming days. This news raised optimism in the market that vaccines will be delivered soon and would help the global economy recover.

The USD/CAD closed at 1.30858 after placing a high of 1.31174 and a low of 1.30341. The USD/CAD pair declined on Wednesday amid the broad-based US dollar weakness and the Canadian dollar’s strength on the day. The risk sentiment was improved on Wednesday after Pfizer and BioNtech said that their vaccine was 95% effective in their study. They were going to seek approval from the US for emergency authorization of vaccine in the coming days. This news raised optimism in the market that vaccines will be delivered soon and would help the global economy recover.

The USD/CAD closed at 1.30858 after placing a high of 1.31174 and a low of 1.30341. The USD/CAD pair declined on Wednesday amid the broad-based US dollar weakness and the Canadian dollar’s strength on the day. The risk sentiment was improved on Wednesday after Pfizer and BioNtech said that their vaccine was 95% effective in their study. They were going to seek approval from the US for emergency authorization of vaccine in the coming days. This news raised optimism in the market that vaccines will be delivered soon and would help the global economy recover.

The rising risk-sentiment in the market helped risk perceived Canadian dollar gain traction against the US dollar that ultimately added pressure on the USD/CAD pair. Meanwhile, the US dollar was already weak across the board after the chances for a further stimulus package from Congress increased after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer urged the Senate Majority Leader McConnell to start the talks for fiscal aid.

The US was reporting a rising rate of infection cases that were weighing on its local currency as the virus’s spread was costing record lives. According to Johns Hopkins University, the death toll in the US raised to 250,180, and the fears for economic shutdown to control the virus from being spread increased. The US officials also announced to close the New York schools again from Thursday to fight the pandemic.

The inefficiency of Trump’s administration during the pandemic crisis has cost the United States many American lives. The recent Trump’s refusal to give in his presidency to Joe Biden has also created chaos in the economy has weighed heavily on the US dollar. The US dollar weakness added further to the losses of the USD/CAD pair on Wednesday.

Furthermore, on the data front, at 02:00 GMT, the TC Long Term Purchases rose to 108.9B from the anticipated 41.5B and supported the US dollar. At 18:30 GMT, the Building Permits for October remained flat at 1.55M. The Housing Starts raised to 1.53M from the projected 1.45M and supported the US dollar that ultimately capped further losses in the USD/CAD pair.

From the Canadian side, the Consumer Price Index for October rose to 0.4% against the expected 0.2% and supported the Canadian dollar that weighed on the USD/CAD pair. The Common CPI for the year also surged to 1.6% against the anticipated 1.5% and supported the Canadian dollar that added losses in the USD/CAD pair. The Median and Trimmed CPI for the year came in line with the expectations of 1.9% and 1.8%, respectively.

The positive macroeconomic data and the rising WTI crude oil prices on Wednesday supported the commodity-linked Loonie. The crude oil prices raised above $43.4 per barrel despite the increasing number of crude oil inventories from the US and supported the Loonie that weighed on the USD/CAD pair.


Daily technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.3036 1.3122

1.2991 1.3163

1.2949 1.3208

Pivot Point: 1.3077

The USD/CAD pair is trading over the 1.3060 level, mostly supported by the Retail Sales. A bearish breakout of the 1.3040 level can drive the selling trend until the 1.2935 area. While on the other hand, the resistance stays at the 1.3173 level today. The MACD and RSI support the selling trend; thus, we may consider taking a selling trade only upon the breakout of the 1.3055 level and buying over the 1.3060 level. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, November 19 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – U.S. Jobless Claims in Focus! 

The economic calendar is filled with medium impact economic events such as Unemployment Claims, C.B. Leading Index m/m, and Existing Home Sales from the United States on the news front. Besides, the Current Account from the Eurozone will also remain in the highlights today. The market may show some price action during the U.S. session on the release of U.S. Jobless Claims.

The economic calendar is filled with medium impact economic events such as Unemployment Claims, C.B. Leading Index m/m, and Existing Home Sales from the United States on the news front. Besides, the Current Account from the Eurozone will also remain in the highlights today. The market may show some price action during the U.S. session on the release of U.S. Jobless Claims.

The economic calendar is filled with medium impact economic events such as Unemployment Claims, C.B. Leading Index m/m, and Existing Home Sales from the United States on the news front. Besides, the Current Account from the Eurozone will also remain in the highlights today. The market may show some price action during the U.S. session on the release of U.S. Jobless Claims.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.18539 after placing a high of 1.18908 and a low of 1.18491. The EUR/USD pair dropped on Wednesday after placing gains for four consecutive days. The EUR/USD pair remained on an upbeat track last days amid the market sentiment’s risk-on market sentiment due to the vaccine optimism. The riskier currencies gathered strength against the safe-havens like the USD and posted gains over the last week. However, on Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair started to decline as Europe’s lockdown situation started to raise fears for economic recovery.

However, the second wave of the coronavirus in Europe started to show signs of slowing. The latest numbers showed a stabilization in new cases in Germany, Spain, Italy and a decline in Belgium, France, and the Netherlands. Despite this, the experts have warned that it was too early to get complacent. The lockdowns and tough social restrictions were reintroduced across numerous European countries in October due to the increased spread of the second wave of coronavirus. These restrictions have been placing a threat on European nations’ economic recovery and weighed on Euro currency that has dragged the EUR/USD pair down on Wednesday.

On the data front, at 02:00 GMT, the TC Long Term Purchases from the U.S. raised to 108.9B against the forecasted 41.5B and supported the U.S. dollar that ultimately added losses in the EUR/USD pair. At 18:30 GMT, the Building Permits from October remained flat with the anticipations of 1.55M. The Housing Starts were raised to 1.53M from the projected 1.45M and supported the U.S. dollar that weighed on EUR/USD pair on Wednesday.

From the European side, at 15:00 GMT, the Final CPI for the year came in line with the expectations of -0.3%. The Final CPI for the year also remained flat as expected, 0.2%. European data failed to impact the EUR/USD pair on Wednesday, and the pair continued following the U.S. dollar’s movement.

The losses in the EUR/USD pair were limited after the risk sentiment was improved in the market due to the latest optimism regarding the coronavirus vaccine. Pfizer and BioNtech announced that they would be filing for emergency authorization of their vaccine in the coming days from the U.S. This raised the optimism that vaccines will soon be available in the market, and the chaos will be lifted from the economy, and it will start to recover. The riskier currency Euro gained traction and capped further losses in the EUR/USD pair on Wednesday.

Daily   Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.1836      1.1880

1.1820      1.1908

1.1791      1.1924

Pivot point: 1.1864

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is trading with a bearish bias at the 1.1844 level, having violated an upward trendline on the hourly chart. On the lower side, the support stays at 1.1832, and below this, the EUR/USD may find next support at 1.1814. On the higher side, the resistance can be found at the 1.1867 level. The bullish bias remains dominants today as the MACD and 50 periods EMA support a bullish trend. We are already holding a buying trade from yesterday; therefore, you are advised to follow our forex signals page for more updates on the EUR/USD pair. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD closed at 1.32670 after placing a high of 1.33120 and a low of 1.32410. The pair GBP/USD continued its bullish momentum for the 4th consecutive day on Wednesday and reached near 1.33200 level. The latest rise in the GBP/USD pair was driven by the growing hopes that a Brexit deal could be within reach after the French President Emmanuel Macron was ready to cave in on demands from the U.K. for full sovereignty waters that will likely rein in access for French fishermen.

This news raised hopes for a Brexit deal before the end of the transition period and supported the British Pound that ultimately lifted the GBP/USD pair higher on board. The Irish Minister Micheal Martin also said that a landing zone for an agreement was within sight just a day ahead of the European Union Summit when the E.U. Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier will brief E.U. leaders about the two weeks of talks held with the U.K.

Chances are increased that an agreement will be made as soon as Monday and will be approved within a week, most likely at the next E.U. Summit on December 10. After that, the European Parliament would have to rubberstamp the agreement to ensure a deal was placed before the end of the transition period on Dec.31st.

All these hopes lifted the British Pound as the chances of a deal were clear for the first time, and things were going in favor of the U.K. However, analysts were concerned that inflation was likely to slow in the months ahead. The GBP/USD pair picked up its pace towards an upward direction due to renewed Brexit optimism and reached near 1.3200 level on Wednesday. On the data front, At 12:00 GMT, the Consumer Price Index for the year raised to 0.7% from the expected 0.5% and supported the Sterling. The year’s Core CPI also raised to 1.5% against the anticipated 1.3% and supported British Pound. The RPI from the U.K. also rose to 1.3% from the expected 1.2% and supported British Pound that ultimately added further gains in GBP/USD pair. At 12:02 GMT, the PPI Input for October surged to 0.2% against the expected 0.0% and supported the British Pound. At the same time, the PPI Output in October remained flat with the expectations of 0.0%. The Housing Price Index from the U.K. also surged to 4.7% against the forecasted 2.9% and supported the British Pound.

The U.K.’s positive macroeconomic data supported the British Pound against the U.S. dollar and raised the GBP/USD pair on Wednesday.

While from the U.S. side, at 02:00 GMT, the TC Long Term Purchases rose to 108.9B against the anticipated 41.5B and supported the U.S. dollar. At 18:30 GMT, the Building Permits for October remained flat with the projections of 1.55M. The Housing Starts surged to 1.53M from the anticipated 1.45M and supported the U.S. dollar that ultimately capped further gains in GBP/USD pair on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, the Bank of England’s Chief Economist Andy Haldane said that the economic outlook for 2021 was materially brighter than he had expected just a few weeks ago despite the short-term uncertainty from a renewed coronavirus lockdown in England. He said that Britain’s economy shrank by almost 20% in the second quarter of 2020, more than any other peer economy, and at the end of September, it was still 8.4% smaller than a year before. He struck a somewhat positive note in line with his previous assessments of Britain’s recovery on Wednesday that raised the British Pound on board against the U.S. dollar. This also benefited the GBP/USD pair on Wednesday, and hence, the pair ended its day with a bullish candle.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3155      1.3236

1.3118      1.3280

1.3073      1.3317

Pivot point: 1.3199

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD pair is trading bullish at the 1.3279 level, holding over the 1.3227 support level, which is extended by an upward trendline on a 2-hour timeframe. The Cable is likely to face immediate resistance at the 1.3297 area, which will be confirmed if the candle starts closing below this level. However, the bullish breakout of the 1.3297 level can drive further upside movement until the 1.3370 level today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 103.795 after placing a high of 104.207 and a low of 103.650. The currency pair USD/JPY remained bearish for the 5th consecutive session on Wednesday and dragged its prices below the 103.700 level. The USD/JPY pair was extending its losses due to the U.S. dollar weakness on Wednesday despite the latest optimism regarding the coronavirus vaccine. On Wednesday, Pfizer announced that its vaccine was 95% effective in its study and planning to seek authorization within days.

This news added to the market’s risk sentiment and supported the equity market by providing a 0.45% gain to Dow Jones and 0.04% to NASDAQ. The latest news from Pfizer and BioNtech failed to impress the market, and the pair USD/JPY continued following the U.S. dollar’s weakness on Wednesday.

The currency pair was under pressure as the coronavirus situation was getting worse day by day in the U.S. as the death toll surpassed 250,000 level in the major economy. According to Johns Hopkins University, the coronavirus has cost almost 250,180 American lives so far, and the count was increasing day by day. This raised fears that more restrictions could be imposed in many states, which would slow down the economic recovery. These fears weighed in the local currency U.S. dollar, and hence, USD/JPY remained under pressure for the 5th consecutive session on Wednesday.

Given the rising number of infections in the country, the States like California and Illinois stretched their restrictions to battle the rising number of cases as any financial aid package was not close to being delivered by Congress. The rising number of coronavirus cases in the U.S. has forced U.S. officials to announce that public schools in New York City will close again on Thursday as the city has reached a 3% coronavirus test positivity rate. These fears also kept the U.S. dollar under pressure on Wednesday.

The House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer urged the Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to resume talks related to the coronavirus relief package. However, McConnell was insisting on a targeted package. The U.S. dollar came under further pressure after the hopes for the talks for further stimulus package increased and weighed on the USD/JPY pair.

On the data front, at 02:00 GMT, the TC Long Term Purchases surged to 108.9B from the expected 41.5B and supported the U.S. dollar. At 18:30 GMT, the Building Permits for October came in line with the projections of 1.55M. The Housing Starts rose to 1.53M from the expected 1.45M and supported the U.S. dollar that ultimately capped further losses in the USD/JPY on Wednesday. On the Japanese side, the Trade Balance for October raised to 0.31T against the 0.11T and supported the Japanese Yen that added further pressure on the USD/JPY pair on Wednesday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

103.58      104.16

103.32      104.48

102.99      104.74

Pivot point: 103.90

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY extends its bearish trend below the 104.430 level, falling from the 104.850 support area. On the lower side, the USD/JPY pair is likely to find support at the 103.800 level, and violation of this level can also extend further selling bias until 103.227. On the higher side, the USD/JPY safe-haven pair may find resistance at 104.400 and may help us capture a selling trades below this level as the MACD and RSI support the selling trend today. Good luck! 

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Forex Signals

AUD/USD Upward Channel Supports – Choppy Session in Play!

The AUD/USD was closed at 0.72998 after placing a high of 0.73393 and a low of 0.72887. After placing gains for two consecutive days, the AUD/USD pair was declined on Tuesday amid the risk-off market sentiment. On Tuesday, the Assistant Governor of Reserve Bank of Australia, Dr. Kent, said that the Aussie’s recent rise was due to the optimistic news of the coronavirus vaccine rather than about the US Presidential election outcome. He said that any positive news about vaccine development would be a good thing for the global economy, including the Australian economy.

The AUD/USD was closed at 0.72998 after placing a high of 0.73393 and a low of 0.72887. After placing gains for two consecutive days, the AUD/USD pair was declined on Tuesday amid the risk-off market sentiment. On Tuesday, the Assistant Governor of Reserve Bank of Australia, Dr. Kent, said that the Aussie’s recent rise was due to the optimistic news of the coronavirus vaccine rather than about the US Presidential election outcome. He said that any positive news about vaccine development would be a good thing for the global economy, including the Australian economy.

The AUD/USD was closed at 0.72998 after placing a high of 0.73393 and a low of 0.72887. After placing gains for two consecutive days, the AUD/USD pair was declined on Tuesday amid the risk-off market sentiment. On Tuesday, the Assistant Governor of Reserve Bank of Australia, Dr. Kent, said that the Aussie’s recent rise was due to the optimistic news of the coronavirus vaccine rather than about the US Presidential election outcome. He said that any positive news about vaccine development would be a good thing for the global economy, including the Australian economy.

Over the chances of negative interest rates by the Reserve Bank of Australia, Kent said it was extraordinarily unlikely that the bank would go for it. These comments from Kent failed to provide any specific movement in AUD/USD pair. Meanwhile, the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia were released on Tuesday, showing that the central bank was ready to provide more policy stimulus if needed after cutting rates to record lows. The bank’s board felt taking interest rates negative was not sensible, and any further action would involve increasing bond purchases.

The minutes revealed that the bank has decided to cut its main cash rate by 15 basis points to just 0.1% and launch a new bond-buying program. The board was ready to do more in need, and the focus over the period ahead will be the government bond purchase program. Moreover, on the data front, from the US side, at 19:00 GMT, the Capacity Utilization Rate raised to 72.8% against the estimated 72.3%. It supported the US dollar added further losses in the AUD/USD pair. The Industrial Production came in line with the anticipations of 1.1% in October. At 20:00 GMT, the Business Inventories for September rose to 0.7% against the expected 0.5% and weighed on the US dollar. The NAHB Housing Market Index from the US surged to 90 from the expected 85 and supported the US dollar that weighed on AUD/USD pair.

Another aspect included in the AUD/USD pair’s downward momentum was the risk-off market sentiment due to the rising coronavirus cases across the globe. The second wave of coronavirus forced many governments to re-impose restrictions that raised economic recovery concerns and increased the appeal for safe-haven that weighed on the AUD/USD pair on Tuesday.


Daily technical Levels
Support Resistance
0.7278 0.7329
0.7257 0.7361
0.7226 0.7381
Pivot point: 0.7309

The AUD/USD pair’s technical side hasn’t changed much as it continues to trade around the 0.7291 level, holding below an immediate resistance area of 0.7330 level. The AUD/USD is likely to remain supported over the 0.7270 level, and it may find resistance around the 0.7330 mark. A bearish breakout of the 0.7272 level can extend the selling trend until the 0.7260 level today; let’s keep an eye on the 0.7290 level as below this selling trend can be seen and vice versa. Good luck!

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, November 18 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Series of Inflation Reports Ahead! 

On the news front, eyes will remain on the low and medium series impacts economic evens from U.K., Eurozone, and Canada. Its the CPI figures which are coming from all three major economies during European and the U.S. sessions. The U.K. and Eurozone Inflation reports are expected to remain neutral, with no major change expected, and these may have a muted impact on the market. However, the Canadian CPI is expected to perform slightly better, surging by 0.2% vs. -0.1% dip during the previous month. It may support Lonnie pairs today.

On the news front, eyes will remain on the low and medium series impacts economic evens from U.K., Eurozone, and Canada. Its the CPI figures which are coming from all three major economies during European and the U.S. sessions. The U.K. and Eurozone Inflation reports are expected to remain neutral, with no major change expected, and these may have a muted impact on the market. However, the Canadian CPI is expected to perform slightly better, surging by 0.2% vs. -0.1% dip during the previous month. It may support Lonnie pairs today.

On the news front, eyes will remain on the low and medium series impacts economic evens from U.K., Eurozone, and Canada. Its the CPI figures which are coming from all three major economies during European and the U.S. sessions. The U.K. and Eurozone Inflation reports are expected to remain neutral, with no major change expected, and these may have a muted impact on the market. However, the Canadian CPI is expected to perform slightly better, surging by 0.2% vs. -0.1% dip during the previous month. It may support Lonnie pairs today.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.18605 after placing a high of 1.18935 and a low of 1.18423. The EUR/USD pair continued to move in bullish track for the 4th consecutive day on Tuesday amid the downbeat economic data from the U.S. and broad-based U.S. dollar weakness. The improved risk sentiment in the market continued supporting the EUR/USD pair on Tuesday in the early trading session, which pushed the currency pair towards a fresh weekly high at 1.1894. The risk sentiment was supported by the latest optimism from the vaccine candidates of Pfizer and Moderna. After the latest announcement from Moderna that its vaccine was 94.5% effective in last stage trials, the risk sentiment picked its pace and favored the riskier assets like EUR/USD pair.

However, the currency pair could not remain on the top for long and started losing some of its daily gains on Tuesday amid the risk-off market environment in the second half of the day. The U.S. dollar gained traction in the second half and weighed on the currency pair EUR/USD after the chances for a further stimulus package from Congress declined.

The U.S. Dollar Index was down to an 8-day lowest level of 92.26 in the first half of the day because of the rising number of coronavirus cases and lockdown restrictions in the economy. The increased number of coronavirus cases from the U.S. forced governments to impose restrictive measures to control the spread of the virus, and the chances for quick economic recovery faded that ultimately weighed on the U.S. dollar and helped EUR/USD pair to reach a new weekly high level.

However, the U.S. dollar lost its momentum after the release of its macroeconomic data on Tuesday. At 18:30 GMT, the Core Retail Sales for October dropped to 0.2% from the estimated 0.6% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. In October from the U.S., the Retail Sales also dropped to 0.3% from the expected 0.5% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The Import Prices in the U.S. for October were declined to -0.1% from the estimated 0.2%and weighed on the U.S. dollar that helped EUR/USD pair to post gains.

At 19:00 GMT, the Capacity Utilization Rate from the U.S. raised to 72.8% against the forecasted 72.3% and supported the U.S. dollar that capped further gains in EUR/USD pair. The Industrial Production remained flat with the anticipations of 1.1% in October. At 20:00 GMT, the Business Inventories for September surged to 0.7% against the projected 0.5% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The NAHB Housing Market Index from the U.S. surged to 90 from the estimated 85 and supported the U.S. dollar that eventually weighed on the EUR/USD pair and capped further gains.

From the European side, at 14:02 GMT, the Italian Trade Balance raised to 5.85B against the forecasted 4.30B. It supported the single currency Euro that ultimately added gains in the EUR/USD pair.

Furthermore, the European Central Bank President, Christine Lagarde, sounded pessimistic on Tuesday concerning the economic outlook and said that there was very negative news on the second wave of coronavirus in the economy before vaccine news. She expected a massive effect of the second wave of COVID-19 on the European economy into 2021. These comments from Lagarde also kept the pair EUR/USD under pressure on Tuesday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.1837      1.1890

1.1814      1.1918

1.1785      1.1942

Pivot Point: 1.1866

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is trading with a bullish bias, holding mostly above the upward trendline support level of 1.1850. Closing of candles above the 1.1869 level is likely to drive bullish movement in the EUR/USD pair until the 1.1885 level. The bullish bias remains dominants today as the MACD and 50 periods EMA support a bullish trend. We are already holding a buying trade from yesterday; therefore, you are advised to follow our forex signals page for more updates on the EUR/USD pair. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.32483 after a high of 1.32724 and a low of 1.31863. The GBP/USD pair raised and continued its bullish track for 3rd consecutive day on Tuesday amid the latest Brexit hopes.

Due to the increased number of COVID-19 cases from across the globe, and the restrictive measures by countries to curb the virus’s spread, the demand for safe-haven currencies increased. In contrast, the riskier currencies like the British Pound remained under pressure.

The Sterling remained supportive in this risk-off mode due to the latest comments from the U.K. chief negotiator, David Frost, that boosted the Brexit deal’s confidence. According to a news report by the U.K. newspaper, The Sun, the previous concerns about the differences in key issues vanished after Britain’s chief negotiator David Frost commented to Boris Johnson that he expects a trade deal signed early next week.

After these comments from David Frost, the GBP/USD pair rallied and started moving upward for the 3rd consecutive day.

Meanwhile, the risk sentiment buoyed by the latest optimism regarding the vaccine development from Moderna also supported the British Pound’s bullish momentum and added further to the gains of the GBP/USD pair on Tuesday. Furthermore, the U.S. dollar weakness also played an important role in pushing the currency pair GBP/USD higher on Tuesday with poor macroeconomic figures. At 18:30 GMT, the Core Retail Sales for October declined to 0.2% from the expected 0.6% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. In October from the U.S., the Retail Sales also fell to 0.3% from the anticipated 0.5% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The Import Prices in the U.S. for October fell to -0.1% against the projected 0.2%and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added further gains in the GBP/USD pair on Tuesday.

At 19:00 GMT, the Capacity Utilization Rate from the U.S. surged to 72.8% against the anticipated 72.3% and supported the U.S. dollar that capped further gains in GBP/USD pair. The Industrial Production came in line with the projections of 1.1% in October. At 20:00 GMT, the Business Inventories for September increased to 0.7% against the estimated 0.5% and weighed on the U.S. dollar, which added strength to the GBP/USD pair. The NAHB Housing Market Index from the U.S. rose to 90 from the projected 85 and supported the U.S. dollar.

Meanwhile, the governor of Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, said that the development of seemingly effective coronavirus vaccines was a bigger step forward for the economy that could lower uncertainty and get firms to reinvest. He also said that the business investment had been unusually weak since the financial crisis and weighting on productivity. Bailey also said that the changes due to coronavirus would more likely be within the services sector as it can be seen with a focus on digital services over the face to face work taking hold. Moreover, the Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden said that positive news about the coronavirus vaccine could help reduce the risks facing Britain’s economy. Still, the central bank was unlikely to revise up its forecasts as a result.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3155      1.3236

1.3118      1.3280

1.3073      1.3317

Pivot point: 1.3199

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD pair is trading bullish at the 1.3279 level, holding over the 1.3227 support level, which is extended by an upward trendline on a 2-hour timeframe. The Cable is likely to face immediate resistance at the 1.3297 area, which will be confirmed if the candle starts closing below this level. However, the bullish breakout of the 1.3297 level can drive further upside movement until the 1.3370 level today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 104.184 after placing a high of 104.598 and a low of 104.069. The pair USD/JPY continued its bearish trend for the 4th consecutive day on Tuesday amid broad-based U.S. dollar weakness and Japanese yen strength due to safe-haven appeal.

On Tuesday, the USD/JPY pair fell below 104.1 level after the safe-haven demand rose due to the increasing number of coronavirus cases and the restrictions from all over the world. Many countries started imposing restrictive measures to control the spread of coronavirus that raised concerns over the global economy’s recovery that lifted the safe-haven appeal. The rising safe-haven demand supported the safe-haven Japanese Yen and weighed on the USD/JPY pair on Tuesday.

The safe-haven demand deteriorated a little after the latest optimism regarding the vaccine development from Moderna that gave an efficacy rate of 94.5%. However, there was still a long way to go before the vaccine can be delivered to everyone. According to Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida, the chances for the U.S. economic recovery have been improved due to candidates’ successful test from both Moderna and Pfizer Inc.

On the U.S. front, the U.S. dollar was weak due to the poor macroeconomic data on Tuesday. At 18:30 GMT, the Core Retail Sales for October fell to 0.2% from the anticipated 0.6% and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added pressure on the USD/JPY pair. In October from the U.S., the Retail Sales also declined to 0.3% from the forecasted 0.5% and weighed on the U.S. dollar that weighed on USD/JPY pair. The Import Prices in the U.S. for October were declined to -0.1% from the estimated 0.2%and weighed on the U.S. dollar added pressure on the USD/JPY pair.

At 19:00 GMT, the Capacity Utilization Rate from the U.S. surged to 72.8% against the estimated 72.3% and supported the U.S. dollar that capped further losses in the USD/JPY pair. The Industrial Production came in line with the anticipations of 1.1% in October. At 20:00 GMT, the Business Inventories for September rose to 0.7% against the projected 0.5% and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added pressure on the USD/JPY pair. The NAHB Housing Market Index from the U.S. surged to 90 from the expected 85 and supported the U.S. dollar that eventually capped further losses in the USD/JPY pair.

Moreover, the Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, said on Tuesday that as the coronavirus cases were increasing to an alarming rate, it was the time when there was a bigger need for further coronavirus relief from Congress. Powell also noted that the recent announcements from Pfizer and Moderna were certainly good news in the medium term; however, major challenges and uncertainties remain in the near term.

Powell also said that Congress should deliver direct financial support targeted to specific groups instead of using the Federal Reserve’s lending tools. Powell’s comments also weighed on the USD/JPY pair as the need for further support from the Fed and Congress weighed on the U.S. dollar.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

103.95      104.51

103.73      104.85

103.39      105.08

Pivot point: 104.29

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY extends its bearish trend below the 104.430 level, falling from the 104.850 support area. On the lower side, the USD/JPY pair is likely to find support at the 103.800 level, and violation of this level can also extend further selling bias until 103.227. On the higher side, the USD/JPY safe-haven pair may find resistance at 104.400 and may help us capture a selling trades below this level as the MACD and RSI support the selling trend today. Good luck! 

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, November 16 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – ECB President Lagarde Speaks!

The eyes will remain on the ECB Financial Stability Review, and President Lagarde Speaks on the news front. The ECB Financial Stability report is an assessment of conditions in the financial system and potential risks to financial stability – the evidence on strains and imbalances can provide insight into monetary policy’s future. Therefore, traders keep a closer eye on reports to predict policy decisions to cope with Covid19 driven economic slowdown.

The eyes will remain on the ECB Financial Stability Review, and President Lagarde Speaks on the news front. The ECB Financial Stability report is an assessment of conditions in the financial system and potential risks to financial stability – the evidence on strains and imbalances can provide insight into monetary policy’s future. Therefore, traders keep a closer eye on reports to predict policy decisions to cope with Covid19 driven economic slowdown.

The eyes will remain on the ECB Financial Stability Review, and President Lagarde Speaks on the news front. The ECB Financial Stability report is an assessment of conditions in the financial system and potential risks to financial stability – the evidence on strains and imbalances can provide insight into monetary policy’s future. Therefore, traders keep a closer eye on reports to predict policy decisions to cope with Covid19 driven economic slowdown.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair managed to extend its previous 2-day gaining streak and remained bullish around near above mid-1.1800 level, mainly due to the broad-based U.S. dollar selling bias, triggered by the risk-on market sentiment, which keeps the currency pair higher. Hence the market trading sentiment was being supported by the coronavirus vaccine-led enthusiasm. 

On the contrary, the buying interest around the currency pair was capped by the intensifying virus fugues in Europe, which raised doubts over the Eurozone economic recovery and became the key factor that has been capped further upside in the currency pair. At the moment, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.1849 and consolidating in the range between the 1.1834 – 1.1854.

Despite the doubts over the global economic recovery from intensifying coronavirus (COVID-19) woes in the U.S. and Europe, the market trading sentiment flashing green at the start of the week’s trading and remained supportive by the optimism over a potential vaccine for the highly infectious coronavirus disease. After cheering the U.S. pharma giant Pfizer’s recent declaration of its coronavirus vaccine’s positive results, the market traders expect the biotechnology company Moderna to follow suit this week. This, in turn, the futures tied to the S&P 500, Wall Street’s benchmark index, is currently trading 0.8% higher on the day and the major Asian indices are up at approximately 1% each. 

At the USD front, the broad-based U.S. dollar failed to gain any positive traction on the day as doubts persist over the global economic recovery from COVID-19. Besides this, the risk-on market sentiment, backed by the optimism over a potential vaccine for the highly contagious coronavirus disease, also played its major role in weakening the safe-haven U.S. dollar. However, the U.S. dollar losses became the key factor that kept the currency pair’s higher. Meantime, the U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a bucket of other currencies dropped by 0.14% to 92.588 by 10:05 PM ET (2:05 AM GMT).

On the contrary, the bullish bias around the EUR/USD currency pair was capped by the on-going doubts over the Eurozone economic recovery amid intensifying coronavirus (COVID-19) worries in the U.S. and Europe. The rising coronavirus (COVID-19) worries urged some European countries, such as the U.K. and France, to imposing restrictive measures such as lockdowns and curfews. As in result, the vehicle traffic in both Europe and the U.S. slowing sharply. As per the latest report, there were over 54 million cases across the globe and over 1.3 million deaths as of November 16.

Looking ahead, the market traders will keep their eyes on updates surrounding the U.S. stimulus package. In the meantime, the risk catalyst like geopolitics and the virus woes, not to forget the Brexit, could not lose their importance. Apart from this, the RBA Gov Lowe Speaks and Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes will also be key to watch.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.1738      1.1827

1.1697      1.1875

1.1648      1.1917

Pivot point: 1.1786

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD traded bullish at 1.1850 level, but recently it has formed a Doji pattern followed by bullish candles, suggesting that the buyers are exhausted, and sellers may enter the market soon. Therefore, we can expect the EUR/USD price to trade bearish until the 1.1838 level, the support level extended by an upward trendline on the hourly timeframe. Bullish crossover of 1.1856 level can also trigger buying until 1.1880.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair managed to extend its overnight winning streak and refreshed 4-day high around above 1.3200 level as the currency pair buyers get a warm welcome after returning from the weekend. However, the bullish tone around the currency pair could be attributed to the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness. The U.S. dollar was being pressured by the market risk-on sentiment, undermining the safe-haven U.S. dollar and contributing to the currency pair gains. 

Whereby, the market trading sentiment has remained supportive by the renewed optimism over a possible vaccine for the highly infectious coronavirus disease, which lends some support to the higher-yielding Pound and contributes to the currency pair gains. On the contrary, the Brexit woes and the virus concerns could stop the currency pair’s on-going recovery moves. At this particular time, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3234 and consolidating in the range between 1.3174 – 1.3235.

Despite the lingering doubts about global economic recovery and the intensifying tension between the world’s two biggest economies, the market players continue to cheering the optimism over a possible vaccine for the highly infectious coronavirus disease. In the meantime, the release of an above-forecast China factory data, which raised hopes of China’s economic growth, has also played its major role in underpinning the market trading sentiment. However, the risk-on mood slightly overshadowed the concerns over virus cases and restrictions in the U.S. 

On the data front, the Industrial production in China’s economy surged 6.9% year-on-year for the 2nd-straight month in October, surpassing the expected gain of 6.5%. Moreover, the Fixed Asset Investment grew 1.8% year-on-year in October against 1.6% expected and 0.8% previous. 

As a result, the higher-yielding British Pound took support from the risk-rally by ignoring the Brexit issue’s latest negative developments. As per the latest report, the discussions over a possible trade deal between the U.K. and E.U. are expected to extend beyond this week.

At the USD front, the broad-based U.S. dollar failed to stop its previous losses and remain depressed on the day, mainly due to the risk-on market sentiment. Moreover, the losses in the U.S. dollar could also be attributed to the on-going doubts over the global economic recovery in the wake of intensifying coronavirus (COVID-19) worries in the U.S., which tend to undermine the American currency. However, the losses in the U.S. dollar kept the currency pair higher. Meantime, the U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a bucket of other currencies dropped by 0.14% to 92.588 by 10:05 PM ET (2:05 AM GMT).

 

On the negative side, the latest negative developments surrounding the Brexit issue and the rising number of coronavirus in the U.K. could be considered the leading factor that kept the lid on a y additional gains in the currency pair. As per the latest report, Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney clearly warned that we would not get a deal if the U.K. imposes Internal Market Bill. In the meantime, the U.K. Environment Secretary George Eustice stated that both sides’ agreement remains intact, keeping the hopes alive as differences continue to persist over fisheries and state aid.

Looking ahead, the market traders will keep their eyes on updates surrounding the U.S. stimulus package. In the meantime, the risk catalyst like geopolitics and the virus woes, not to forget the Brexit, could not lose their importance. Apart from this, the RBA Gov Lowe Speaks and Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes will also be key to watch.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3170      1.3291

1.3119      1.3361

1.3050      1.3412

Pivot point; 1.3240

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.3208 level, holding over 1.3189 level, which is extended by an upward trendline on a 2-hour timeframe. The Cable has recently crossed over the resistance level of the 1.3185 resistance level as the candle’s closing above this level may drive further upward movement in the market. The MACD and RSI support buying trend, and considering the trendline support and oversold indicators, it is worth giving a buy shot to GBP/USD pair. Let’s consider buying over 1.3160 level today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 105.121 after placing a high of 105.476 and a low of 105.068. The pair USD/JPY reversed its direction and started falling on Thursday amid the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness. The decreased risk sentiment due to the escalated second wave of the coronavirus in the United States weighed on the USD/JPY pair on Thursday. The investors started to fear that governments might respond by imposing the lockdown restrictions that will slow down the economic recovery.

The United States reported about 140,453 cases on a single day on Wednesday, and it was the ninth straight day of above 100,000 cases. According to Johns Hopkins University, about 10.4 million Americans have been infected by the coronavirus so far, and nearly 242,000 have died from it. These concerns raised the safe-haven appeal and supported the Japanese Yen that ultimately weighed on the USD/JPY.

On the data front, at 04:50 GMT, the Core Machinery Orders from Japan for September came in as -4.4% against the expected -1.1% and weighed on the Japanese Yen. The Purchasing Price Index (PPI) from Japan remained flat with the expectations of -2.1% for the year. At 09:30 GMT, the Tertiary Industry Activity for September raised to 1.8% against the anticipated 1.3% and supported the Japanese Yen and weighed on the USD/JPY pair.

The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell cautioned that the U.S. economy would further need support from Congress and the central bank even if a coronavirus vaccine becomes available by the end of the year. He said that despite the vaccine’s availability, there still will be millions of people left who have lost their job to the pandemic, and they will still struggle to find work as the economy will attempt to recover from the economic downturn.

He added that in the Federal Reserve’s eyes, the terrible rise in COVID-19 cases across the country was the “main risk” for the U.S. economy. He added that the coronavirus’s third wave had forced several states to re-impose lockdown restrictions and caused people to lose confidence. He stressed that the economy would not fully recover until people are confident that it was safe to resume activities involving the crowd. These comments from Powell also weighed on the U.S. dollar and added in the losses of the USD/JPY pair on Thursday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

103.82       106.29

102.27       107.21

101.35       108.75

Pivot point: 104.74

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is with a bearish bias at the 104.400 level, falling from the 104.850 support area. On the lower side, the USD/JPY pair is likely to find support at the 104.141 level, and violation of this level can also extend further selling boas until 103.500. On the higher side, the USD/JPY safe-haven pair may find resistance at 104.845 and may help us capture a selling trades below this level as the MACD and RSI are supporting the selling trend today. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, November 13 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – CPI, Employment in Focus! 

The eyes will remain on the U.S. Core PPI m/m and the Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment from the United States on the news side. Both of the events are expected to drive some movement in the U.S. dollar and related currency pairs. During the European session, the French Final CPI m/m, Flash Employment Change q/q, and Flash GDP q/q will remain in highlights as these are coming from European counties; therefore, we can expect support to the Euro pairs.

The eyes will remain on the U.S. Core PPI m/m and the Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment from the United States on the news side. Both of the events are expected to drive some movement in the U.S. dollar and related currency pairs. During the European session, the French Final CPI m/m, Flash Employment Change q/q, and Flash GDP q/q will remain in highlights as these are coming from European counties; therefore, we can expect support to the Euro pairs.

The eyes will remain on the U.S. Core PPI m/m and the Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment from the United States on the news side. Both of the events are expected to drive some movement in the U.S. dollar and related currency pairs. During the European session, the French Final CPI m/m, Flash Employment Change q/q, and Flash GDP q/q will remain in highlights as these are coming from European counties; therefore, we can expect support to the Euro pairs.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.18054 after placing a high of 1.18230 and a low of 1.17584. The currency pair EUR/USD reversed its Wednesday’s movement and raised on Thursday despite coronavirus worsened Europe’s situation. Italy was now expecting to enter a nationwide lockdown due to the increased number of coronavirus cases and curb the virus’s spread that should have caused the EUR/USD pair to continue movement in the downward direction. Still, the pair surged on the back of the weak U.S. dollar.

The U.S. dollar has suffered from risk-on markets sentiment, with investors becoming more optimistic after Pfizer’s 90% effective coronavirus vaccine. The greenback was also weak due to the declining CPI data from the U.S. At 12:00 GMT, the German Final CPI for October came in line with the expectations of 0.1%. At 15:00 GMT, the Industrial Production in September from Eurozone declined to -0.4% against the forecasted 0.6% and weighed on Euro and capped further gains in EUR/USD pair.

At 18:30 GMT, the Consumer Price Index for October fell to 0.0% against the projected 0.1% and weighed on the U.S. dollar and supported the EUR/USD pair’s upward direction. The Core CPI for October also declined to 0.0% from the projected 0.2% and weighed on the U.S. dollar and added further in gains of EUR/USD pair. However, the Unemployment Claims from last week fell to 709K against the projected 730K and supported the U.S. dollar and capped further gains in currency pair EUR/USD pair.

Moreover, the U.S. political uncertainties also continued weighing on the U.S. dollar after the victory of Joe Biden and becoming 46th U.S. President. Donald Trump has failed to concede Biden’s victory and has left the markets uncertain about what could happen next as Trump attempts to challenge the vote. 

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar was also under pressure because of the rising number of coronavirus infections on Wednesday. The cases increased to 142,000 new cases in a single day, and the hospitalization rate also increased and reached 65,000, the highest during the pandemic. These virus conditions in the U.S. also weighed on the U.S. dollar and supported the upward movement of the EUR/USD pair.

On the other hand, the ECB President Christine Lagarde said that she believes that the region’s monetary authority will move to launch a digital version of the Euro in the next two to four years. Previously, ECB officials disclosed that they were researching a central bank digital currency.

On the virus front, the ECB President, Christine Lagarde, said that the coronavirus vaccine had reduced the uncertainty and complete lockdown was not the best way to deal with the second wave. These comments from Lagarde also supported the upward movement of the EUR/USD pair on Thursday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.1738      1.1827

1.1697      1.1875

1.1648      1.1917

Pivot point: 1.1786

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD continues to trade sideways at the 1.1804 area, facing immediate support at the 1.1749 level along with resistance at the 1.1835 level. On the further higher side, the violation of the 1.1835 level can extend the buying trend until 1.1907. On the lower side, the support level prevails at 1.1749 and 1.1680 level. The MACD and EMA are also neutral; therefore, we may see selling below the 1.1835 and bullish above the same level today.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.31222 after a high of 1.32281 and a low of 1.31062. The pair GBP/USD continued following its previous day movement and extended its losses on Thursday. On Thursday, the Bank of England Governor said that he hoped a goodwill spirit would prevail between Britain and the European Union countries to smooth over unavoidable trade disruptions after the end of the Brexit transition period on Jan-1st.

Bailey also told a panel discussion with the U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and European Central bank President Christine Lagarde that he felt very uncomfortable at the huge amount of economic uncertainty created by a coronavirus. On Thursday, Bailey said that he was encouraged by the latest coronavirus vaccine developments, which reduce economic uncertainty.

He also said that the trade talks were continuing between Britain and the European Union, but he could not judge the outcome. He said that he hoped that if there will be a trade agreement, there will be a goodwill spirit. However, he also told the panel Britain’sain’s financial sector was ready for the end of transition periods irrespective of a deal and was better prepared than the rest of the economic sectors. Bailey’s comments raised concerns in the market sentiment and kept the British Pound under pressure that left the GBP/USD pair on the downside.

On the data front, at 05:01 GMT, the RICS House Price Balance from the U.K. for October raised to 68% from the forecasted 54% and supported GBP. At 12:00 GMT, the Prelim GDP for the 3rd Quarter declined to 15.5% against the expected 15.8% and weighed on British Pound and added in the losses of GBP/USD pair. For September, the U.K.’s Construction Output raised to 2.9% against the forecasted 2.1% and supported British Pound. The GDP for September from the U.K. also declined to 1.1% against the estimated 1.5% and weighed on British Pound and further supported the GBP/USD pair’s losses.

The Goods Trade Balance came in as expected -9.3B. The Index of Services for the Quarter also declined to 14.2% from the forecasted 14.6% and weighed on British Pound and added losses in currency pair. The Industrial Production for September again fell to 0.5% from the estimated 0.9% and weighed on GBP. The Manufacturing Production in September from the U.K. dropped to 0.2% against the projected 0.7% and weighed on GBP. The Prelim Business Investment dropped to 8.8% in September from the projected 14.4% and weighed on local currency Sterling and further pushed the pair on the downside.

From the U.S. side, at 18:30 GMT, the Consumer Price Index for October was dropped to 0.0% against the expected 0.1% and weighed on the U.S. dollar and capped further losses in GBP/USD pair. The Core CPI for October also dropped to 0.0% from the expected 0.2% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. However, the Unemployment Claims from last week fell to 709K against the estimated 730K and supported the U.S. dollar and added losses in GBP/USD pair on Thursday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3170      1.3291

1.3119      1.3361

1.3050      1.3412

Pivot point; 1.3240

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.3116 level, holding over 1.3110 level, which is extended by an upward trendline on a 2-hour timeframe. The Cable has recently completed 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, and now it’s holding above the double bottom support level of 1.3110 level. On the higher side, the pair may surge until the resistance level of 1.3190 level. The MACD and RSI support selling trend, but considering the trendline support and oversold indicators, it is worth giving a buy shot to GBP/USD pair. Let’s consider buying over 1.3110 level today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 105.121 after placing a high of 105.476 and a low of 105.068. The pair USD/JPY reversed its direction and started falling on Thursday amid the broad-based US dollar weakness. The decreased risk sentiment due to the escalated second wave of the coronavirus in the United States weighed on the USD/JPY pair on Thursday. The investors started to fear that governments might respond by imposing the lockdown restrictions that will slow down the economic recovery.

The United States reported about 140,453 cases on a single day on Wednesday, and it was the ninth straight day of above 100,000 cases. According to Johns Hopkins University, about 10.4 million Americans have been infected by the coronavirus so far, and nearly 242,000 have died from it. These concerns raised the safe-haven appeal and supported the Japanese Yen that ultimately weighed on the USD/JPY pair on Thursday.

On the data front, at 04:50 GMT, the Core Machinery Orders from Japan for September came in as -4.4% against the expected -1.1% and weighed on the Japanese Yen. The Purchasing Price Index (PPI) from Japan remained flat with the expectations of -2.1% for the year. At 09:30 GMT, the Tertiary Industry Activity for September raised to 1.8% against the anticipated 1.3% and supported the Japanese Yen and weighed on the USD/JPY pair.

From the US side, at 18:30 GMT, the Consumer Price Index for October was dropped to 0.0% against the anticipated 0.1% and weighed on the US dollar and dragged the pair USD/JPY on the downside. The Core CPI for October also dropped to 0.0% from the anticipated 0.2% and weighed on the US dollar and added further in the USD/JPY pair’s losses. However, the Unemployment Claims from last week were declined to 709K against the anticipated 730K and supported the US dollar that capped further losses in the USD/JPY pair.

Meanwhile, on Thursday, the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell cautioned that the US economy would further need support from Congress and the central bank even if a coronavirus vaccine becomes available by the end of the year. He said that despite the vaccine’s availability, there still will be millions of people left who have lost their job to the pandemic, and they will still struggle to find work as the economy will attempt to recover from the economic downturn.

He added that in the Federal Reserve’s eyes, the terrible rise in COVID-19 cases across the country was the “main risk” for the US economy. He added that the coronavirus’s third wave had forced several states to re-impose lockdown restrictions and caused people to lose confidence. He stressed that the economy would not fully recover until people are confident that it was safe to resume activities involving the crowd. These comments from Powell also weighed on the US dollar and added in the losses of the USD/JPY pair on Thursday.


Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

103.82      106.29

102.27      107.21

101.35      108.75

Pivot point: 104.74

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading sideways between 105.650 – 104.900 level, and violation of this level can extend the selling trend until the next support level of 104.430 mark. Simultaneously, the bullish breakout of the 105.650 level may open further room for buying until the 106.142 level. Overall, the eyes will remain at 104.835 level to trade bearish below this level until 104.435 and 104.175 level today. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

AUD/USD Maintain Bullish Streak Despite Risk-off Sentiment – Trade Plan!  

Today in the Asian trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair erased some of its earlier gains but still trading on the bullish track and taking rounds just closer to the 0.7250 level, mainly due to the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness. Hence, the broad-based U.S. dollar was being pressured by the doubts persist over the global economic recovery from COVID-19. This, in turn, undermined the greenback and contributed to the currency pair gains. 

Today in the Asian trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair erased some of its earlier gains but still trading on the bullish track and taking rounds just closer to the 0.7250 level, mainly due to the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness. Hence, the broad-based U.S. dollar was being pressured by the doubts persist over the global economic recovery from COVID-19. This, in turn, undermined the greenback and contributed to the currency pair gains. 

Today in the Asian trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair erased some of its earlier gains but still trading on the bullish track and taking rounds just closer to the 0.7250 level, mainly due to the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness. Hence, the broad-based U.S. dollar was being pressured by the doubts persist over the global economic recovery from COVID-19. This, in turn, undermined the greenback and contributed to the currency pair gains. 

On the other hand, the optimism over the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine/treatment also lends some minor support to the currency pair by underpinning the perceived risk currency Australian dollar. On the contrary, the intensified clashes between the US-China over the Hong Kong crackdown could be regarded as one of the important factors that might cap further upside momentum for the AUD/USD pair. The AUD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.7237 and consolidating in the range between 0.7228 – 0.7242.

The intensifying market worries regarding the continuous surge in new coronavirus cases in Europe and the United States keep fueling the doubts over the global economic recovery through imposing new lockdown restrictions on economic and social activity, which eventually weighed on the market trading sentiment. As per the recent report, the U.S. coronavirus cases reached a new daily record high, with 140,543 reported. Almost 10.4 million peoples in the U.S. have been infected by the Covid-19 so far. While almost 242,000 have died from this, according to the Johns Hopkins University report. As in result, New York has announced a 10 p.m. curfew on bars, gyms, and restaurants to curb the spread. Afterward, Chicago also followed the footsteps of New York and restricted activities.

In addition to the U.S., Europe also imposed lockdown again last week, threatening the oil outlook and undermining oil prices. It is worth recalling that Sweden declared a partial lockdown shutting down bars and restaurants for the 1st-time since the virus started. Thus, the back to back lockdowns restrictions keep harming the crude oil demand.

Besides the virus woes, the reason for the downbeat market sentiment could also be associated with the long-lasting US-China tussle, which fueled further after the U.S. warned China over the Hong Kong crackdown during the previous day. Apart from this, the Trump administration shows a willingness to limit investments in Chinese companies, fueling the already intensified tussle. 

Despite the risk-off market sentiment, the broad-based U.S. dollar failed to extend its previous day gains. It slipped lower mainly due to the heavy optimism over the potential vaccine for the highly infectious coronavirus disease. Apart from this, coronavirus’s resurgence keeps fueling the fears that the U.S. economic recovery could be halt, which also keeps the USD under pressure. However, the U.S. dollar losses could be considered the major factor that pushes the currency pair higher. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a bucket of other currencies dropped to 92.957.

In the absence of the major data/events on the day, the market traders will keep their eyes on the continuous drama surrounding the U.S. stimulus package. In the meantime, the risk catalyst like geopolitics and the virus woes, not to forget the Brexit, will also be key to watch for a fresh direction. 


Daily Support and Resistance

S1 0.7128

S2 0.7186

S3 0.7208

Pivot Point 0.7245

R1 0.7267

R2 0.7304

R3 0.7363

The AUDUSD traded with a bullish bias, but it recently has violated the upward channel at the 0.7245 level. The Aussie has now entered the new region, and it has formed a downward channel on the smaller timeframe now, which is likely to extend resistance at 0.7245 level along with support at 0.7200. A bearish breakout of 0.7200 level can open further room for buying until 0.7122 level. The MACD is also in support of selling; therefore, we should look for selling trades below the 0.7245 level today. Goold luck! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, November 12 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Spotlight on ECB, BOE & FED! 

On the news side, the eyes will remain on the U.K. Prelim GDP q/q, which is expected to have improved from -19.8% to 15.8% previous month, and it may support the Sterling today. Later in the day, the speeches from the ECB President Lagarde, BOE Gov Bailey, and Fed Chair Powell will remain under the spotlight. All three officials are due to participate in a panel discussion about monetary policy at the ECB Forum on Central Banking via satellite. Lastly, the U.S. CPI figures can also trigger some price action during the U.S. session today; let’s keep an eye on it. 

On the news side, the eyes will remain on the U.K. Prelim GDP q/q, which is expected to have improved from -19.8% to 15.8% previous month, and it may support the Sterling today. Later in the day, the speeches from the ECB President Lagarde, BOE Gov Bailey, and Fed Chair Powell will remain under the spotlight. All three officials are due to participate in a panel discussion about monetary policy at the ECB Forum on Central Banking via satellite. Lastly, the U.S. CPI figures can also trigger some price action during the U.S. session today; let’s keep an eye on it. 

On the news side, the eyes will remain on the U.K. Prelim GDP q/q, which is expected to have improved from -19.8% to 15.8% previous month, and it may support the Sterling today. Later in the day, the speeches from the ECB President Lagarde, BOE Gov Bailey, and Fed Chair Powell will remain under the spotlight. All three officials are due to participate in a panel discussion about monetary policy at the ECB Forum on Central Banking via satellite. Lastly, the U.S. CPI figures can also trigger some price action during the U.S. session today; let’s keep an eye on it. 

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD closed at 1.17786 after placing a high of 1.18325 and a low of 1.17453. The Euro dropped on Wednesday against the U.S. dollar as the European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers continued signaling further easing, though they downplayed the prospect of further interest rate cuts.

At the ECB forum on central banking in Frankfurt, the ECB President Christine Lagarde said that the coronavirus crisis had produced a highly unusual recession, and recovery is likely to be uneven. She also warned against excessive optimism over the short-term impact on the economy from a vaccine.

Lagarde continued that as the latest news on vaccine looked encouraging, the chances were still there. The economy could face frequent cycles of accelerating viral spread and tightening restrictions until widespread immunity was achieved. On Monday, the U.S. drugmaker Pfizer said that its vaccine’s last stage trials had shown a high level of success in preventing reinfection. Lagarde signaled that the central bank would almost certainly loose monetary policy in the next meeting as the Eurozone economy risks falling back towards recession. She told lawmakers that ECB was ready to take further easing actions. These comments from ECB President weighed on the single currency Euro and dragged the pair EUR/USD on the downside on Wednesday.

Lagarde said that the ECB would keep its interest rates at 0.0%, and it has an asset purchase program in place worth 1.35 trillion euros. She said that bond-buying and pumping extra cash into the financial system were the best ways for the central bank to support the economy.

According to Lagarde, while all the other options were on the table, the PEPP and TLTRO’s have proven their effectiveness in the current environment. Therefore, they will likely remain the main tools for adjusting monetary policy.

According to the latest forecast, the Eurozone GDP in the fourth quarter is likely to decline by roughly 2% as the renewed lockdowns have affected the economic activities. All these updates kept the single currency Euro under pressure and, ultimately, the EUR/USD pair on the downside.

On the U.S. front, the U.S. dollar was high onboard due to the rising hopes of a quick economic rebound and less need for stimulus measures from the FED after the latest optimism from the vaccine front. 

The U.S. Dollar Index rose by about 0.3% on Wednesday and supported the U.S. dollar’s upward trend that ultimately added pressure on the EUR/USD pair. Meanwhile, there was a Bank Holiday in the U.S. and France that kept the macroeconomic data out of the table and left the EUR/USD pair on the mercy of market mood and Lagarde’s speech.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.1738      1.1827

1.1697      1.1875

1.1648      1.1917

Pivot point: 1.1786

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is trading with a bearish bias at the 1.1780 level, having violated the double bottom support level at 1.1800. The same support level was also extended by an upward trendline pattern on the hourly timeframe. At the moment, the EUR/USD has formed a downward channel, which extends resistance at the 1.17800 level. On the lower side, the support holds around 1.1743 level. The MACD and EMA are also turning bearish; therefore, we may see selling below the 1.17800 mark today.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD closed at 1.32237 after placing a high of 1.33133 and a low of 1.31912. The GBP/USD pair dropped on Wednesday after placing gains for four consecutive days on the back of rising concerns over the Brexit deal and the broad-based U.S. dollar strength.

On the Brexit front, the U.K. and E.U. are still far apart on fisheries and the flow of goods between Ireland and Northern Ireland. However, hopes were still high that talks between both sides were moving positively as there had been no public finger-pointing by both parties in the preceding few weeks. Despite this, it cannot be said that a deal will surely reach as when it comes to Brexit, there is nothing sure.

Another unofficial deadline for reaching a deal has been set by both sides: the European Summit on November 19. If a settlement is not reached by then, the chances are high that the U.K. will leave the E.U. on December 31 without a trade deal and will bound to follow WTO rules. As the new deadline was reaching closer, these latest concerns raised the fears of no-deal Brexit and weighed on the British Pound that ultimately dragged GBP/USD pair on the downside.

Furthermore, on the U.S. front, the greenback was strong across the board as the Fed’s need for further stimulus dropped after releasing the latest vaccine news. The U.S. Dollar Index rose by about 0.3% and weighed on GBP/USD pair. Moreover, traders’ eyes will be upon the release of the third quarter GDP from Great Britain. Investors believe that the economy will post a strong rebound in Q3 as the coronavirus pandemic caused a sharp decline in GDP in Q2 when it fell by 19.8%. The third-quarter GDP is expected to stand at 15.3%, and any figure within the expectations will prove bullish for GBP. U.K. will also release monthly GDP for September that is projected to decline by 1.5% down from August’s 2.1%.

Meanwhile, the GBP/USD pair’s losses remained limited as the risk sentiment in the market continued supporting the risk perceived GBP. The risk sentiment was supported by the latest optimism about the vaccine development from Pfizer and BioNtech on Monday. However, the British Pound was also under pressure due to the victory of Joe Biden in the U.S. election last week. Biden has said that he will not make a trade deal with the U.K. after its transition period ends if it failed to reach a deal with the E.U. Now the pressure has been increased in the U.K. for securing a trade deal with the E.U., which has also exerted pressure on local currency British Pound that has been weighing on GBP/USD pair since Biden’s victory.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.2997      1.3222

1.2851      1.3301

1.2771      1.3448

Pivot point: 1.3076

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On Thursday, the GBP/USD is consolidating with a neutral bias at 1.3210 level ahead of the UK GDP figures later today. The GBP/USD is holding over the resistance becomes a support level of 1.3159. At the moment, the Cable may find immediate support at the 1.3208 level, and below this, Sterling can dip until the 1.3140 level. As you can see on the hourly timeframe, the Cable is stuck in a very narrow range, and there is likely to be an excellent trade opportunity in the market upon breakout. Let’s consider selling below the 1.3190 level and buying above the same area today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

During Thursday’s Asian trading session, the USD/JPY currency pair failed to extend its early-day recovery streak and edged lower around below the 105.30 level. Selling bias could be associated with the risk-off market sentiment, which underpins the safe-haven Japanese yen and contributes to the currency pair losses. Therefore, the market trading sentiment was being pressured by the increasing market concerns about the possible economic fallout from the second wave of continuous. 

Across the pond, the broad-based U.S. dollar selling bias, triggered by the optimism over a potential vaccine for the highly infectious coronavirus pandemic, could also be considered as one of the key factors that dragged the currency pair lower. In the meantime, the U.S. dollar losses were further bolstered by the renewed hopes for substantial U.S. fiscal stimulus measures. On the contrary, the optimism over a potential vaccine and the progress surrounding the Brexit talks keep challenging market risk-off mood and become the key factor that helps the currency pair limit its deeper losses. On the flip side, the currency pair mostly ignores the second-tier data from Japan. At this particular time, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 105.31 and trading in the range between 105.22 – 105.47.

The market trading sentiment failed to extend its previous day’s positive performance. It started to flash red on the day as the resurgence of (COVID-19) cases still not dispensing any sign of slowing down in the U.S. and Europe, which keep fueling the worries over the global economic recovery. As per the latest report, the U.S. keeps reporting record cases daily, more than 100K per day. Even all U.S. states representing a worse status report of the COVID-19, which was backed by the record hospitalizations and daily cases. As in result, New York has declared a 10 p.m. curfew on bars, gyms, and restaurants to curb the virus spread. It is also worth mentioning that the COVID-19 hospitalizations in the U.S. exceeded 60,000. 

In addition to the U.S., Europe also imposed lockdown again last week, threatening to weaken the economic recovery. As per the latest report, Sweden declared a partial lockdown is shutting down bars and restaurants for the 1st-time since the virus started. Thus, the back to back lockdowns restrictions will have an instant negative effect on global economic recovery.

Moreover, the market risk-off sentiment was further bolstered by the reports suggesting that the Dragon Nation takes one more trade-negative measure for Aussie. As per the latest report, the Dragon Nation extended its anti-Aussie bias while suspending the Victorian timber logs. The dragon nation has already lifted bars for Australian wine, iron ore, and barley after the Pacific inquiry alleging the Asian leader’s negligence caused the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. Apart from this, the bearish market sentiment could also be associated with the long-lasting US-China tussle, which continuously picks the pace. As per the latest report, the U.S. National Security Adviser Robert Charles O’Brien recently threatened the Dragon Nation over its responsibility to trigger Hong Kong freedom violations.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

103.82      106.29

102.27     107.21

101.35     108.75

Pivot point: 104.74

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading sideways, maintaining a narrow range of 105.63 – 104.835 ever since it has violated the descending trendline at 104.950 area. The USD/JPY pair is trading choppy as investors seem to brace for the U.S. inflation figures later today. The USD/JPY pair needs to violate the 104.900 level to continue trading bearish, and below this, we may see the USD/JPY pair falling until the 104.220 level, and a further breakout can lead it towards 102.400. However, we may see buying over 104.950 levels today until 105.600. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

AUD/USD Weakens Despite the Intensifying Coronavirus (COVID-19) – Upward Channel Breakout! 

During Thursday early Asian trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair successfully extended its overnight winning streak. It drew some further bids around below 0.7300 level, mainly due to the risk-on market sentiment, which underpins the perceived risk currency Australian dollar and contributes to the currency pair gains. Hence, the market trading sentiment was being supported by optimism over a potential vaccine for the highly infectious coronavirus disease. 

During Thursday early Asian trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair successfully extended its overnight winning streak. It drew some further bids around below 0.7300 level, mainly due to the risk-on market sentiment, which underpins the perceived risk currency Australian dollar and contributes to the currency pair gains. Hence, the market trading sentiment was being supported by optimism over a potential vaccine for the highly infectious coronavirus disease. 

During Thursday early Asian trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair successfully extended its overnight winning streak. It drew some further bids around below 0.7300 level, mainly due to the risk-on market sentiment, which underpins the perceived risk currency Australian dollar and contributes to the currency pair gains. Hence, the market trading sentiment was being supported by optimism over a potential vaccine for the highly infectious coronavirus disease. 

Besides this, the upticks in the equity markets were further bolstered by the updates suggesting continuous progress of Brexit talks between the U.K. and the European Union (E.U.), which extended further support to the currency pair. Across the pond, the broad-based U.S. dollar bearish bias, triggered by the marker risk-on mood, has played its significant role in supporting the currency pair. Furthermore, the greenback declines were further bolstered by the intensifying doubts over the U.S. economic recovery in the wake of the intensified U.S. cases. 

Conversely, the long-lasting coronavirus woes throughout the world and delays in the U.S. covid stimulus package keep challenging the upbeat market sentiment, which becomes the key determinant that deposited the lid on any additional gains in the currency pair. In the meantime, the gains in the currency pair were further capped by the Weaker Aussie data, which showed that the Consumer confidence in Australia declined more than expected in November. The AUD/USD is trading at 0.7284 and consolidating in the range between 0.7275 – 0.7294.

The market trading bias has been sluggish since the day started. Hence, mixed trading could be attributed to the mixed signals concerning the coronavirus (COVID-19) and the global monetary policy moves, not to forget about the U.S. election results. Talking about positive factors, the leading vaccine producers like Pfizer and Moderna keep struggling to find the deadly virus’s best cure. In the meantime, the U.S. infectious disease expert Dr. Anthony Fauci recently boosted coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine optimism during the latest comments. He noted that the data from a large trial of its experimental COVID-19 vaccine anywhere between “a couple of days” to “a little more than a week.”


Daily Support and Resistance

S1 0.7176

S2 0.723

S3 0.7255

Pivot Point 0.7285

R1 0.7309

R2 0.7339

R3 0.7394

The AUDUSD is trading with a bullish bias at a 0.7303 area, having crossed over an immediate resistance level of 0.7287. At the moment, this level is working as a support for the AUD/USD pair. On the higher side, resistance stays at 0.7341 and 0.7411 level today. Bullish bias seems strong over 0.7287 today. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

USD/CAD Heading North – Is It a Good time to go long?

Today in the early Asian trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair successfully extended its previous day recovery streak and remained bullish around above the mid-1.3000 level. However, the bullish sentiment around the currency pair could be attributed to the modest downticks in the crude oil prices, which ultimately undermined the demand for the commodity-linked currency the loonie, and contributed to the currency pair gains. On the contrary, the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, triggered by the multiple factors, has become one of the major factors that kept the lid on any further gains in the currency pair. Currently, the USD/CAD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3067 and consolidating in the range between 1.3054 – 1.3073.

Today in the early Asian trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair successfully extended its previous day recovery streak and remained bullish around above the mid-1.3000 level. However, the bullish sentiment around the currency pair could be attributed to the modest downticks in the crude oil prices, which ultimately undermined the demand for the commodity-linked currency the loonie, and contributed to the currency pair gains. On the contrary, the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, triggered by the multiple factors, has become one of the major factors that kept the lid on any further gains in the currency pair. Currently, the USD/CAD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3067 and consolidating in the range between 1.3054 – 1.3073.

Today in the early Asian trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair successfully extended its previous day recovery streak and remained bullish around above the mid-1.3000 level. However, the bullish sentiment around the currency pair could be attributed to the modest downticks in the crude oil prices, which ultimately undermined the demand for the commodity-linked currency the loonie, and contributed to the currency pair gains. On the contrary, the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, triggered by the multiple factors, has become one of the major factors that kept the lid on any further gains in the currency pair. Currently, the USD/CAD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3067 and consolidating in the range between 1.3054 – 1.3073.

Despite the renewed optimism about a potential treatment/vaccine for the highly infectious virus, the market trading sentiment has ben flashing mixed signals as the coronavirus woes overshadowed vaccine hopes. However, the increasing market worries over the potential economic fallout from the constant rise in new COVID-19 cases keep weighing on the market trading sentiment. As per the latest report, the country keeps reporting record cases daily, more than 100K per day. Essentially all American states are getting a worse status report of the COVID-19, strengthened by record hospitalizations and daily cases rising past-100,000 in the last few days. As in result, New York has declared a 10 p.m. curfew on bars, gyms, and restaurants to curb the spread. It is also worth mentioning that the COVID-19 hospitalizations in the U.S. exceeded 60,000.

On the bullish side of the story, the prevalent optimism over the potential vaccine for the highly infectious coronavirus disease helps the market trading sentiment limit its deeper losses. The leading vaccine producers like Pfizer and Moderna still show progress over the vaccine for the deadly virus. This was witnessed after the U.S. infectious disease expert Dr. Anthony Fauci said that Moderna could begin analyzing vaccine data within days. However, the market trading mood mostly ignored the U.S. official’s another push to keep vaccine optimism high amid surging virus cases and hospitalizations in the U.S.

Despite the risk-off market sentiment, the broad-based U.S. dollar failed to extend its overnight gains. It edged lower on the day, mainly due to the heavy optimism over the potential vaccine for the highly infectious coronavirus disease. Apart from this, coronavirus’s resurgence keeps fueling the fears that the U.S. economic recovery could be halt, which also keeps the greenback under pressure. However, the U.S. dollar losses could be considered the major factor that pushes the currency pair down. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a bucket of other currencies dropped to 92.922.

At the crude oil front, the WTI crude oil prices failed to extend its overnight winning streak and remained under some selling pressure on the day. However, the fresh declines in crude oil could be attributed to reports suggesting the next wave of lockdowns throughout the world, which is threatening the crude oil demand once again. Apart from this, the reason for the modest losses in crude oil prices could also be associated with the latest reports suggesting that OPEC’s oil output in October rose by 320,000 BPD in the wake of recovery in Libya’s production. Thus, the pullback in oil prices undermined demand for the commodity-linked currency – the loonie and remained supportive of the USD/CAD pair’s ongoing recovery momentum.

Moving ahead, the market traders will keep their eyes on the U.S. economic calendar, which highlights the latest data concerning U.S. inflation and jobless claims. In the meantime, the Brexit trade talks’ updates could not lose their importance on the day.


Daily Support and Resistance
S1 1.2951
S2 1.3003
S3 1.3032
Pivot Point 1.3055
R1 1.3084
R2 1.3107
R3 1.3158

The USD/CAD is trading with bullish sentiment at 1.3094, facing immediate resistance at 1.3100. Crossing above this level may drive further upward movement until 1.3177 level. On the downside, the USD/CAD may find support at 1.3025, and below this, the next support level stays at 1.2975 level. The MACD is in support of buying; thus, we may look for a buying trade over the 1.3105 level today. Good luck!

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, November 11 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Bank Holidays! 

On the news front, the economic calendar is mostly empty on the back of the Bank holiday in Europe and the United States. French banks will be closed in observance of Armistice Day, while Canadian banks will be closed in observance of Remembrance Day. The U.S. banks will also remain closed amid the Veterans Day holiday in the bank. We may experience thin trading volume and volatility in the market. 

On the news front, the economic calendar is mostly empty on the back of the Bank holiday in Europe and the United States. French banks will be closed in observance of Armistice Day, while Canadian banks will be closed in observance of Remembrance Day. The U.S. banks will also remain closed amid the Veterans Day holiday in the bank. We may experience thin trading volume and volatility in the market. 

On the news front, the economic calendar is mostly empty on the back of the Bank holiday in Europe and the United States. French banks will be closed in observance of Armistice Day, while Canadian banks will be closed in observance of Remembrance Day. The U.S. banks will also remain closed amid the Veterans Day holiday in the bank. We may experience thin trading volume and volatility in the market. 

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.18133 after placing a high of 1.19198 and a low of 1.17951. The EUR/USD pair rose to its highest since September 02 on Monday but failed to keep its gains and fell to post losses for the day as the U.S. dollar rallied in the American session as risk appetite took over. Pfizer and BioNtech announced that their coronavirus vaccine was more than 90% effective in preventing the coronavirus. The news about the vaccine optimism raised the risk sentiment further and pushed the pair to its highest in 9 weeks in earlier sessions on Monday.

Pfizer and BioNtech said they would seek the approval authorization for emergency-use from the U.S. later this month. The market’s optimism raised and supported the EUR/USD pair’s an upward movement in earlier trading hours.

A vaccine will likely mean the end of lockdowns and restrictions and hence, a sharp economic comeback. However, it will take up to the second half of next year for the vaccine or vaccines to reach enough people to grant a more regular return to activities. Nevertheless, optimism will prevail. However, the EUR/USD pair failed to keep its gains for the day and started declining on Monday on the back of Joe Biden’s victory in the U.S. presidential election. The political gridlock in the U.S. Senate could stall the prospect of any fresh package of U.S. fiscal stimulus package that failed to keep the U.S. dollar under pressure and weighed on the EUR/USD pair.

The European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde refrained from touching upon monetary policy in her scheduled speech at the Green Horizon Summit on Monday. She only talked about climate risks and said that the economic challenges of climate transition were phenomenal. The main driver of the EUR/USD pair remained the strength of the U.S. dollar triggered by the faded hopes of additional stimulus measures as the vaccine news raised optimism about the economic recovery.

European banks will be closed in observance of Armistice Day; therefore, thin trading volume and volatility can be expected today. 

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.1766      1.1891

1.1717      1.1969

1.1640      1.2017

Pivot point: 1.1843

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD is trading bullish at the 1.1833 level amid a stronger U.S. dollar. The pair may now head higher until an immediate resistance level of 1.1883. On the 4 hour timeframe, the EUR/USD has formed an upward channel supporting the pair at the 1.18016 level. On the higher side, a bullish crossover of 1.1883 level can extend the buying trend until the 1.1945 area. The MACD entered the oversold zone and now suggesting odds of bullish trend continuation; therefore, we should look for a buying trade over the 1.1801 level.  

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.31634 after a high of 1.32081 and a low of 1.31183. Despite higher market sentiment and weaker safe-haven demand on Monday, the British Pound to U.S. dollar exchange rate has been under pressure. The Sterling remained weak despite the increased market sentiment from the news of coronavirus vaccine efficiency. Pfizer and the BioNtech announced that their vaccine had been proved more than 90% efficient in preventing the coronavirus on Monday. Both companies also said they would be taking approval from the U.S. for the vaccine’s emergency-use later this month. After this news, risk appetite increased in the market, and global equities raised; however, the risk perceived GBP/USD pair remained under pressure as British Pound was weak due to Biden victory in the U.S. elections.

Joe Biden’s victory decreased the hopes for the U.K. & U.S. post-Brexit trade deal as Joe Biden has already said that if U.K. fails to reach a deal with the E.U., then the US-UK deal will also be jeopardized. As there was no news regarding the progress made in the U.K. & E.U. talks, the British Pound came under fresh pressure after Joe Biden became the U.S.

The governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, explained that what the BoE was doing to ensure the financial system plays its part in tackling climate change. He warned that climate change was a bigger risk than coronavirus. Furthermore, the chief economist from the Bank of England, Andy Haldane, said that a breakthrough in developing a coronavirus vaccine could deliver a vital boost of confidence to consumers and businesses. He added that the economy might have reached a decisive moment after the pharmaceutical company Pfizer announced that its coronavirus vaccine candidate was 90% effective.

He also said that the vaccine could be a game-changer for the economy. He cautioned that it would take several months for the vaccine to be rolled out but would have an immediate effect on consumer and business confidence. He added that the economic cycle would start again as it would unlock the business investments, and the economy will start recovering. The GBP/USD pair remained a little bullish due to high pressure on British Pound on Tuesday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.2997      1.3222

1.2851      1.3301

1.2771      1.3448

Pivot point: 1.3076

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading with a strong bullish bias due to a stronger Sterling 1.3191 area. The pair has violated the intraday resistance level at 1.3159, which is now working as a support for Sterling. On the higher side, the continuation of an upward trend can lead to the GBP/USD pair until the 1.3226 area. The cable had violated the descending triangle pattern, and ever since, it’s trading with a bullish bias. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 105.388 after placing a high of 105.645 and a low of 103.187. The USD/JPY pair surged past the 105.6 level on Monday after the risk-on market sentiment raised and weighed on the Japanese Yen. The safe-haven Japanese Yen came under fresh pressure after the Pfizer and its German partner BioNtech announced that their vaccine candidate was proved more than 90% efficient in its last-stage trials. Both companies announced that they would seek U.S. approval for the emergency-use of vaccine later this month.

The pair USD/JPY witnessed a sharp rise in its prices of almost 3-4% on Monday after the vaccine optimism raised the risk appetite in the market that weighed heavily on the safe-haven Japanese Yen. This ultimately pushed the USD/JPY pair to the highest level since October 20.

The gains in USD/JPY pair were also supported by the victory of Democratic Joe Biden in U.S. elections. Biden was expected to deliver a massive stimulus package that had been weighing on the U.S. dollar. Still, after the news of vaccine development and its efficiency, the need for the massive stimulus package dropped and raised the U.S. dollar onboard. 

The Bank of Japan released the Summary of opinions that stated that one member said that the bank needs to ensure its purchases of exchange-traded funds are sustainable. Other members said that BOJ must be ready to ramp up stimulus to cushion the economic blow from the coronavirus pandemic. The Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester said that the emergency lending programs the Fed set up during the coronavirus pandemic had reduced distress in financial markets. She also said that there was still a need for lending programs. 

Mester also noted that Fed Chair Jerome Powell would be working with the Treasury Department to determine if the programs should be extended beyond the end of the year. She also stated that the Fed was not out of ammunition to stimulate the economy. The Fed could provide more accommodation by adjusting its asset purchase program and using other tools. She said that the economy recovered more strongly than expected, but gains have not been evenly spread. Mester said that economic growth would be more slowly despite the optimistic news about the vaccine. These comments kept the markets under pressure and capped further gains in the USD/JPY pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

103.82      106.29

102.27      107.21

101.35      108.75

Pivot point: 104.74

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY has violated the descending trendline at 104.950 area, and on the lower side, it’s testing the support area of 104.840 level. The USD/JPY pair has recently entered the overbought zone, and now investors may experience a bearish correction in the market. The USD/JPY pair needs to violate the 104.900 level. Below this, we may see the USD/JPY pair falling until the 104.220 level, and a further breakout can lead it towards 102.400, which seems a bit hard. However, we may see buying over 104.950 levels today until 105.600. Good luck! 

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Forex Signals

AUD/USD Stops Previous Day Losing Streak Amid Downbeat China CPI, PPI

The AUD/USD failed to extend its overnight bullish bias and remains on the backfoot after returning from the 8-week high the previous day. However, the reason could be traced to China’s weaker than expected inflation data for October, which initially undermined the Australian dollar and contributed to the currency pair losses. Besides this, the reason for the bearish sentiment around the currency pair could also be associated with the U.K. government’s defeat to convince the House of Lords over the necessity to have the rights to edit the Brexit deal by the Tory members. 

The AUD/USD failed to extend its overnight bullish bias and remains on the backfoot after returning from the 8-week high the previous day. However, the reason could be traced to China’s weaker than expected inflation data for October, which initially undermined the Australian dollar and contributed to the currency pair losses. Besides this, the reason for the bearish sentiment around the currency pair could also be associated with the U.K. government’s defeat to convince the House of Lords over the necessity to have the rights to edit the Brexit deal by the Tory members. 

The AUD/USD failed to extend its overnight bullish bias and remains on the backfoot after returning from the 8-week high the previous day. However, the reason could be traced to China’s weaker than expected inflation data for October, which initially undermined the Australian dollar and contributed to the currency pair losses. Besides this, the reason for the bearish sentiment around the currency pair could also be associated with the U.K. government’s defeat to convince the House of Lords over the necessity to have the rights to edit the Brexit deal by the Tory members. 

On the contrary, the hopes of the latest optimism over a potential vaccine for the highly infectious coronavirus disease having earlier boosted the market trading sentiment, which could be regarded as one of the key determinants that help the currency pair to limit its deeper losses. Besides this, the losses in the currency pair were also capped by the fresh optimism of the Australian Prime Minister (PM) Scott Morrison over the Australian economy. Meanwhile, the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, buoyed by the market mixed mood, could also be considered as a major factor that might cap the further downside momentum for the currency pair.

As we already mentioned that the reason for the currency pair bearish bias could be traced to China’s weaker than expected inflation data for October, which initially undermined the Australian dollar and contributed to the currency pair losses. At the data front, China’s headline CPI decreased below 0.8% against forecast to 0.5% YoY, marking the first below 1.0% print since March 2017, whereas PPI reprints -2.1% figures while defying -2.0% market consensus.

Despite the optimism over a potential treatment/vaccine for the highly infectious virus, the market risk sentiment failed to extend its previous day positive performance and remains depressive during the early Asian session on the day amid a combination of factors. Be it the worrisome headlines concerning Brexit or the tension between the US-China, not to forget the coronavirus issues in the U.S., the market trading sentiment has been flashing red since the Asian session started, which ultimately keeps the perceived riskier Australian dollar under pressure. As per the latest report, the U.S. sanctions four Chinese diplomats over the Hong Kong crackdown. 

Meanwhile, the reason for the losses in the equity market could also be associated with the U.S. dislikes concerning the European tariffs on goods worth $4 billion, as earlier expressed by the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Robert Lighthizer. Furthermore, the British House of Lords rejected the Tory government’s proposal to override the Brexit treaty, which also weighed on the market trading sentiment and contributed to the currency pair losses. 

Across the pond, the prevalent worries over the resurgence of the coronavirus pandemic remain on the card as they could ruin the global economic recovery, which keeps the market trading sentiment under pressure and weakened the perceived riskier Australian dollar. The coronavirus COVID-19 cases continue to climb in Europe, U.K., and the U.S. As per the latest report, the coronavirus (COVID-19) cases crossed over 10 million figures in the U.S. as well as 30 million marks from Europe.

Despite the mixed market sentiment, the broad-based U.S. dollar failed to extend its overnight gains and edged lower on the day mostly due to the heavy optimism over the potential vaccine for the highly infectious coronavirus disease. 

On the bullish side, the pharmaceutical giant Pfizer announced Monday that early analysis of its coronavirus vaccine trial suggested the vaccine was robustly effective in preventing COVID-19, which earlier boosted the market trading sentiment and was seen as one of the key factors that capped further downside momentum for the currency pair. However, the coronavirus vaccine hopes got an additional boost after the U.S. Health Official Dr Anthony Fauci said that the vaccine is around the corner while terming Moderna’s vaccine similar to Pfizer’s during an interview with CNN.

At home, Australian Prime Minister (PM) Scott Morrison recently said that the confidence in the economy is recovering, as the country is re-opening from its coronavirus imposed the second lockdown, which ultimately helped the currency pair to limits its deeper losses. In the meantime, the October month data from National Australia Bank (NAB) recorded better than previous predictions but were mostly ignored.

The traders will keep their eyes on U.S. economic calendars, which will highlight the release of the NFIB Small Business Index along with JOLTS Job Openings. Apart from this, the traders will also closely watch the FOMC Member Kaplan and FOMC Member Quarles speeches. In the meantime, the updates surrounding the Brexit trade talks could not lose their importance on the day.


The AUDUSD is consolidating with bullish sentiment at the 0.7283 area, having crossed over an immediate resistance level of 0.7247 level. For the moment, this AUD/USD is working as a support for the AUD/USD pair. On the higher side, resistance stays at 0.7341 and 0.7411 level today. Bullish bias seems strong; let’s consider taking bullish trades today, especially 0.7220. Good luck! 

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Forex Signals

USD/CAD Downward Channel Continues to Play – Brace for Selling!

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.30072 after placing a high of 1.30519 and a low of 1.29281. The USD/CAD pair slipped to its lowest since mid-October 2018 on Monday as the risk appetite increased and weighed on the safe-haven US dollar that ultimately dragged the USD/CAD pair lower.

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.30072 after placing a high of 1.30519 and a low of 1.29281. The USD/CAD pair slipped to its lowest since mid-October 2018 on Monday as the risk appetite increased and weighed on the safe-haven US dollar that ultimately dragged the USD/CAD pair lower.

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.30072 after placing a high of 1.30519 and a low of 1.29281. The USD/CAD pair slipped to its lowest since mid-October 2018 on Monday as the risk appetite increased and weighed on the safe-haven US dollar that ultimately dragged the USD/CAD pair lower.
On Monday, the primary driver of the USD/CAD was the WTI Crude Oil prices that rose to $41.32 per barrel on the day after the optimism regarding the vaccine development raised in the market. The hopes for economic recovery were also raised as the vaccine news increased the chances of removing lockdowns and restrictions from the countries across the globe.

On Monday, Pfizer in collaboration with the BioNtech, announced together that their vaccine had proven 90% efficient in preventing the infection of coronavirus in its last stage clinical trials. They said that they would seek approval for their vaccine’s emergency use from the US later this month.

This news raised the risk sentiment and decreased the need for lockdowns weighing on the oil prices due to decreased demand during lockdowns. The crude oil prices surged and placed high gains on Monday that gave strength to commodity-linked Loonie that ultimately weighed heavily on the USD/CAD pair.

However, most of its daily losses were recovered after the US dollar rebounded on the hopes of no need for further stimulus measures as the vaccine had been developed. The US dollar strength drove the USD/CAD pair higher and recovered most of its daily losses. There were no macroeconomic releases from both sides s the pair continued following Pfizer and BioNtech’s latest announcement regarding vaccine development.


Daily technical Levels
Support Resistance
1.2932 1.3076
1.2857 1.3145
1.2788 1.3220
Pivot point: 1.3001

The USD/CAD pair is consolidating with a selling bias beneath the 1.3007 zones, disrupting the support region of the 1.3025 mark. On the downside, the bearish breakout of the 1.3025 level can extend selling bias until the 1.29720 level. Continuation of a selling bias can help us capture a quick sell trade until the 1.2972 area. So far, the MACD and EMA are neutral as the market lacks volatility. But we can expect some price action during the European session. Let’s brace for it. Good luck!

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Forex Signals

Oversold USD/JPY Braces for a Bullish Correction – Quick Update on Signal!

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 103.364 after placing a high of 103.758 and a low of 103.174. The USD/JPY pair was dropped to its lowest since 8th March. The U.S. dollar against the Japanese Yen on Friday dragged the pair to a fresh 8-months lowest level as the chances for Joe Biden to win the U.S. election increases. The USD/JPY pair followed the USD weakness throughout the week and reached the 103 level.

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 103.364 after placing a high of 103.758 and a low of 103.174. The USD/JPY pair was dropped to its lowest since 8th March. The U.S. dollar against the Japanese Yen on Friday dragged the pair to a fresh 8-months lowest level as the chances for Joe Biden to win the U.S. election increases. The USD/JPY pair followed the USD weakness throughout the week and reached the 103 level.

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 103.364 after placing a high of 103.758 and a low of 103.174. The USD/JPY pair was dropped to its lowest since 8th March. The U.S. dollar against the Japanese Yen on Friday dragged the pair to a fresh 8-months lowest level as the chances for Joe Biden to win the U.S. election increases. The USD/JPY pair followed the USD weakness throughout the week and reached the 103 level.

The investors have welcomed a Democrat government’s prospects with a split congress where Republicans can block initiatives to raise taxes or introduce tighter regulations with a risk rally that sent the safe-haven U.S. dollar to multi-month lows against its main rivals.

On the data front, at 04:30 GMT, the Average Cash Earning for the year came in as -0.9% against the forecasted -1.1% and supported the Japanese Yen and added further losses in the USD/JPY pair. The Household Spending for the year came in as -10.2% against the expected -10.5% and supported the Japanese Yen that added further weakness in the currency pair USD/JPY.

From the U.S. side, at 18:30 GMT, Average Hourly Earnings from the U.S. for October weakened to 0.1% from the anticipated 0.2% and weighed on the U.S. dollar added further losses in the USD/JPY pair. The Non-Farm Employment Change for October surged to 638K against the anticipated 595K and supported the U.S. dollar, and capped further losses in the USD/JPY pair. In October, the Unemployment Rate from the U.S. weakened to 6.9%from the anticipated 7.7% and supported the U.S. dollar. At 20:00 GMT, the Final Wholesale Inventories for September came in as 0.4% against the anticipated -0.1% and weighed on the U.S. dollar and dragged the pair USD?JPY to the multi-month lowest level.


The USD/JPY has violated the descending triangle pattern at 104.149 area, and on the lower side, it’s testing the support area of 103.270 level. Recently the closing of bullish engulfing patterns may drive an upward movement in the market. On the higher side, the USD/JPY can go after the next 103.850 mark. On the flip side, violation of the 103.215 level can extend selling until the 102.750 mark. The MACD is also showing oversold sentiment among investors; therefore, we should look for a bullish trade over 103.270 and selling below the 103.830 level today.

Entry Price – Buy 1912.42
Stop Loss – 1906.42
Take Profit – 1919.92
Risk to Reward – 1:1.25
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$600/ +$750
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$60/ +$75
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Forex Signals

AUD/USD Succeeded to Stop Its Overnight Losses – Combination Of Factors in Play! 

During Monday’s early Asian trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair succeeded to stop its overnight losing streak and caught some sharp bids around above mid-0.7200 level mainly due to the risk-on market sentiment, which tend to support the observed risk currency Australian dollar and offers to the currency pair gains. Therefore, Democratic candidate Joe Biden’s victory in the U.S. presidential elections was supported by the market trading bias. Aside from this, the market trading sentiment was further supported by Brexit’s confidence, which boosted the currency pair. Across the pond, the broad-based U.S. dollar selling bias, triggered by the marker risk-on sentiment, also played its major role in supporting the currency pair. 

During Monday’s early Asian trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair succeeded to stop its overnight losing streak and caught some sharp bids around above mid-0.7200 level mainly due to the risk-on market sentiment, which tend to support the observed risk currency Australian dollar and offers to the currency pair gains. Therefore, Democratic candidate Joe Biden’s victory in the U.S. presidential elections was supported by the market trading bias. Aside from this, the market trading sentiment was further supported by Brexit’s confidence, which boosted the currency pair. Across the pond, the broad-based U.S. dollar selling bias, triggered by the marker risk-on sentiment, also played its major role in supporting the currency pair. 

During Monday’s early Asian trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair succeeded to stop its overnight losing streak and caught some sharp bids around above mid-0.7200 level mainly due to the risk-on market sentiment, which tend to support the observed risk currency Australian dollar and offers to the currency pair gains. Therefore, Democratic candidate Joe Biden’s victory in the U.S. presidential elections was supported by the market trading bias. Aside from this, the market trading sentiment was further supported by Brexit’s confidence, which boosted the currency pair. Across the pond, the broad-based U.S. dollar selling bias, triggered by the marker risk-on sentiment, also played its major role in supporting the currency pair. 

Moreover, the U.S. dollar losses were further bolstered by the intensifying doubts over the U.S. economic recovery as U.S. total coronavirus cases surpass 10 million. On the contrary, the long-lasting coronavirus woes in the U.S. and Europe and Trump’s challenges to the election results keep challenging the upbeat market sentiment, which becomes the key factor that kept the lid on any additional gains in the currency pair. The AUD/USD is trading at 0.7269 and consolidating in the range between 0.7268 – 0.7290.

Despite the doubts over the global economic recovery from intensifying coronavirus (COVID-19) woes in the U.S. and Europe, the market trading sentiment ticked up to the 4-week high at the start of the week’s trading and remained supportive by the Democratic candidate Joe Biden’s victory in the U.S. presidential elections. Despite many lawsuits filed by the Trump administration against the result of the presidential election, the market traders still believe that the Republican member will not keep the White House leadership. Although, the optimism surrounding the Bidden victory was further bolstered after the JPMorgan Chief Executive Jamie Dimon said that “We must respect the results of the U.S. presidential election and, as we have with every election, honor the decision of the voters and support a peaceful transition of power.” However, this helped the market’s risk sentiment and undermined the U.S. dollar’s safe-haven demand.

Across the ocean, bullish sentiment around the equity market was further bolstered by the optimism concerning Brexit, which was recently triggered after the European Union’s (E.U.) Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier recently said that he is pleased to be back in London for Brexit talks.

On the contrary, the intensifying coronavirus woes in the U.S. and Europe and intensifying lockdowns restrictions in Europe keep challenging the upbeat market sentiment and become the key factor that kept the lid on any additional gains in the currency pair. As per the latest report, the coronavirus cases (COVID-19) have exceeded 50 million globally over the weekend. At the same time, the number of infections in Europe was registered approximately 300K in one day. At the U.S. front, the U.S. reported a record rise in coronavirus cases for a 4th-consecutive day with at least 131,420 new infections, bringing the country’s total count to around 9.91 million. Simultaneously, the number of deaths in the U.S. was more than 1,000 for a 5th-consecutive day. It is also worth mentioning that 242,230 people have died from the infection in the U.S., and 6,391,208 have recovered so far. Considering the current coronavirus condition in Europe, the major Europeans like Germany and France have imposed severe restrictions to try controlling the spread. 


Moving ahead, the market traders will keep their eyes on the U.S. economic calendar, which highlights updates on inflation and consumer confidence along with Thursday’s report on initial jobless claims. In the meantime, the Brexit trade talks’ updates could not lose their importance on the day.

The AUD/USD consolidates with bullish sentiment at the 0.7294 area, facing a solid resistance at the 0.7294 level extended by a triple top pattern. On the higher side, the upward breakout can drive the buying drift to the 0.7346 mark. Alongside this, the support extends to operate at the 0.7220 mark today. The MACD trades with a mixed bias; nevertheless, it can adapt bullish if AUD/USD runs to crossover 0.7295 mark. Good luck!

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, November 09 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – BOE Gov Bailey Speaks! 

On the news front, the investor’s focus is likely to stay on the German Trade Balance, and the ECB President Lagarde Speaks ahead of the BOE Gov Bailey Speech during the European session today. German Trade Balance is forecasted to improve from 15.7B to 17.2B, and it may help support the Euro as a single currency. While the ECB President Lagarde and BOE Bailey is scheduled to speak at Green Horizon Summit via satellite.

On the news front, the investor’s focus is likely to stay on the German Trade Balance, and the ECB President Lagarde Speaks ahead of the BOE Gov Bailey Speech during the European session today. German Trade Balance is forecasted to improve from 15.7B to 17.2B, and it may help support the Euro as a single currency. While the ECB President Lagarde and BOE Bailey is scheduled to speak at Green Horizon Summit via satellite.

On the news front, the investor’s focus is likely to stay on the German Trade Balance, and the ECB President Lagarde Speaks ahead of the BOE Gov Bailey Speech during the European session today. German Trade Balance is forecasted to improve from 15.7B to 17.2B, and it may help support the Euro as a single currency, while the ECB President Lagarde and BOE Bailey is scheduled to speak at Green Horizon Summit via satellite.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.18746 after placing a high of 1.18907 and a low of 1.17952. The EUR/USD pair was rose to its highest level since September 15 on Friday. The EUR/USD pair has been holding onto gains as the markets were following the U.S. elections. The lead of Democratic Joe Biden in U.S. elections kept the U.S. dollar under pressure and supported the EUR/USD pair’s bullish momentum.

The safe-haven dollar remained on the back foot throughout the week and pushed the riskier EUR/USD pair to its multi week’s highest level. The greenback was also weak due to the dovish decision by Federal Reserve this week. The Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, said that the pace of the recovery was moderated and that fed has discussed the bond-buying scheme. He also showed his concerns about the resurgence of coronavirus in the U.S. and all over the globe and urged lawmakers to act.

On the data front, at 12:00 GMT, the German Industrial Production for September declined to 1.6% from the forecasted 2.6% and weighed on Euro. At 12:45 GMT, the French Prelim Private Payrolls for the quarter raised to 1.8% from the forecasted 0.2% and supported Euro that added in the gains of EUR/USD pair. The French Trade Balance for September came in as -5.7B against the expected -6.9B and supported Euro. At 14:00 GMT, the Italian Retail Sales for September came in as -0.8%against the expected -1.5% and supported Euro and pushed EUR/USD pair higher.

At 18:30 GMT, Average Hourly Earnings from the U.S. for October dropped to 0.1% from the projected 0.2% and weighed on the U.S. dollar and supported the upward trend of the EUR/USD pair. The Non-Farm Employment Change for October elevated to 638K against the predictable 595K and supported the U.S. dollar. In October, the Unemployment Rate from the U.S. dropped to 6.9%from the projected 7.7% and supported the U.S. dollar. At 20:00 GMT, the Final Wholesale Inventories for September came in as 0.4% against the expected -0.1% and weighed on the U.S. dollar that ultimately added strength in the EUR/USD pair on Friday.

The COVID-19 cases have been continuously rising on both sides, Europe and the USA, and once the U.S. elections settle, the par could see a decline in its prices.

The focus of market participants was only on the U.S. election, where over the weekend, the Democratic Joe Biden won the presidency of the United States and became 46th President of the USA. Despite the lawsuits claiming electoral fraud, Biden was elected as U.S. President and weighed on the U.S. dollar that ultimately will help the EUR/USD pair to post further gains.

Daily Technical Levels

Support    Resistance

1.1733      1.1884

1.1647      1.1947

1.1583      1.2034

Pivot point: 1.1797

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is trading bullish at the 1.1890 level amid a weaker U.S. dollar. The pair may head further higher until the 1.1945 level, having immediate support at the 1.18826 level. On the 4 hour timeframe, the EUR/USD has violated the double top resistance level of 1.1882 level, which may lead the EUR/USD pair further higher until the 1.1945 mark. The MACD supports buying; therefore, we should look for a buying trade over the 1.1880 level.  

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.31474 after placing a high of 131770 and a low of 1.30924. The GBP/USD pair rose to its highest since September 07 on Friday despite the better than expected Unemployment rate and NFP data from the U.S.

The market’s focus was shifted to the U.S. Election results that were showing a Democratic lead; it weighed on the U.S. dollar and contributed to the GBP/USD pair’s gains. The strong Employment figures also failed to improve the mood around the U.S. dollar as investors were not impressed by it, and they continued following the U.S. election results.

Over the weekend, Joe Biden won 290 Electoral College votes against Donald Trump’s 214 that confirmed Biden’s victory as the candidate should secure at least 270 Electoral College votes to win the presidency.

On the data front, at 13:30 GMT, the Halifax Housing Price Index for October declined to 0.3% against the forecasted 1.0% and weighed on British Pound and capped further gains in GBP/USD pair.

On the U.S. front, at 18:30 GMT, Average Hourly Earnings from the U.S. for October fell to 0.1% from the estimated 0.2% and weighed on the U.S. dollar and supported the upward trend of the GBP/USD pair. The Non-Farm Employment Change for October rose to 638K against the estimated 595K and supported the U.S. dollar. In October, the Unemployment Rate from the U.S. fell to 6.9%from the estimated 7.7% and supported the U.S. dollar. At 20:00 GMT, the Final Wholesale Inventories for September came in as 0.4% against the estimated -0.1% and weighed on the U.S. dollar and provided strength to the GBP/USD pair.

The improved employment figures from the U.S. failed to give any strength to the falling U.S. dollar on Friday as the focus of traders was only towards the U.S. election results leading Joe Biden over Donald Trump. Whereas, on the Brexit front, the UK PM Boris Johnson will be under greater pressure to strike a Brexit deal with the E.U. as Joe Biden has won the presidency. It is because a no-deal Brexit could seriously threaten relations with a new Democratic administration.

Joe Biden has already made it clear that there will be no agreement on a post-Brexit UK-US trade deal if the U.K. disagreed with the E.U. The talks between E.U. & U.K. officials were continued throughout the week, and the result of those talks has not been published yet. The market’s focus will be shifted towards economic data and other fundamentals rather than on U.S. elections in the coming week as the uncertainty regarding the U.S. election has faded away.

Daily Technical Levels

Support    Resistance

1.2997      1.3222

1.2851      1.3301

1.2771      1.3448

Pivot point: 1.3076

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is also trading with a strong bullish bias due to a weaker dollar in the 1.3181 area. The pair has violated the intraday resistance level at 1.3159, which is now working as a support for Sterling. On the higher side, the continuation of an upward trend can lead the GBP/USD pair until the 1.3226 area. The cable had violated the descending triangle pattern, and ever since, it’s trading with a bullish bias. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 103.364 after placing a high of 103.758 and a low of 103.174. The USD/JPY pair was dropped to its lowest since 8th March. The U.S. dollar against the Japanese Yen on Friday dragged the pair to a fresh 8-months lowest level as the chances for Joe Biden to win the U.S. election increases. The USD/JPY pair followed the USD weakness throughout the week and reached the 103 level.

The investors have welcomed a Democrat government’s prospects with a split congress where Republicans can block initiatives to raise taxes or introduce tighter regulations with a risk rally that sent the safe-haven U.S. dollar to multi-month lows against its main rivals.

On the data front, at 04:30 GMT, the Average Cash Earning for the year came in as -0.9% against the forecasted -1.1% and supported the Japanese Yen and added further losses in the USD/JPY pair. The Household Spending for the year came in as -10.2% against the expected -10.5% and supported the Japanese Yen that added further weakness in the currency pair USD/JPY.

From the U.S. side, at 18:30 GMT, Average Hourly Earnings from the U.S. for October weakened to 0.1% from the anticipated 0.2% and weighed on the U.S. dollar added further losses in the USD/JPY pair. The Non-Farm Employment Change for October surged to 638K against the anticipated 595K and supported the U.S. dollar, and capped further losses in the USD/JPY pair. In October, the Unemployment Rate from the U.S. weakened to 6.9%from the anticipated 7.7% and supported the U.S. dollar. At 20:00 GMT, the Final Wholesale Inventories for September came in as 0.4% against the anticipated -0.1% and weighed on the U.S. dollar and dragged the pair USD?JPY to the multi-month lowest level.

The USD/JPY pair’s main driver at the ending day of the week remained the U.S. dollar weakness due to Biden’s prospects in U.S. elections. Over the weekend, the results showed that Biden won 290 Electoral College votes compared to Trump’s 214 and became the 46th President of the U.S. Biden is expected to deliver a larger stimulus package, and the markets were following these hopes that could lead further to the downside of the safe-haven U.S. dollar.

Daily Technical Levels

Support    Resistance

103.09      104.22

102.70      104.95

101.97      105.34

Pivot point: 103.83

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY has violated the descending triangle pattern at 104.149 area, and on the lower side, it’s testing the support area of 103.270 level. Recently the closing of bullish engulfing patterns may drive an upward movement in the market. On the higher side, the USD/JPY can go after the next 103.850 mark. On the flip side, violation of the 103.215 level can extend selling until the 102.750 mark. The MACD is also showing oversold sentiment among investors; therefore, we should look for a bullish trade over 103.270 and selling below the 103.830 level today. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

AUD/USD Bullish Channel Support Assie – Quick Update

The AUD/USD currency pair failed to extend its previous day bullish moves and took fresh offers near below the 0.7250 level mainly due to prevalent risk-off market sentiment, triggered by the worsening coronavirus (COVID-19) conditions in the U.S. and the U.K., which exerted some selling pressure on the perceived riskier Aussie and dragged the currency pair below 0.7000 marks. 

The AUD/USD currency pair failed to extend its previous day bullish moves and took fresh offers near below the 0.7250 level mainly due to prevalent risk-off market sentiment, triggered by the worsening coronavirus (COVID-19) conditions in the U.S. and the U.K., which exerted some selling pressure on the perceived riskier Aussie and dragged the currency pair below 0.7000 marks. 

AUD/USD Bullish Channel Support Assie – Quick Update

The AUD/USD currency pair failed to extend its previous day bullish moves and took fresh offers near below the 0.7250 level mainly due to prevalent risk-off market sentiment, triggered by the worsening coronavirus (COVID-19) conditions in the U.S. and the U.K., which exerted some selling pressure on the perceived riskier Aussie and dragged the currency pair below 0.7000 marks. 

However, the global risk sentiment was further pressured by the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. election, triggered by the rumors concerning the delay in U.S. election results until January. On the other hand, the broad-based U.S. dollar fresh strength, backed by the risk-off market sentiment, has also played its major role in undermining the currency pair. 

On the contrary, the currency pair’s losses were capped by the RBA’s monetary policy statement, in which the RBA explicitly calling out no further reduction in interest rates, which tend to underpin the Australian dollar and helps the currency pair to limit its deeper losses. At the moment, the AUD/USD currency pair is currently trading at 0.7255 and consolidating in the range between 0.7250 – 0.7285.

The market trading sentiment remains depressed during the early Asian trading session due to the second wave of coronavirus infections in the U.S. and the U.K. getting worse day by day. As per the latest report, there are 109,000 new COVID-19 cases from the U.S. so far. Thus, these figures marked the second day in a row with over 100,000 new cases after beating Wednesday’s daily record.

Additionally, the long-lasting inability to pass the U.S. fiscal package, as well as the jitters of the American presidential election also weighed on the risk sentiment, which eventually undermined the perceived riskier Australian dollar and contributed to the currency pair gains.

Despite Democratic candidate Joe Biden’s heavy role in the electoral votes, currently around 260 counts against 270 required, the U.S. election results still not showing any decision. However, the reason could be attributed to President Donald Trump’s lawsuits against multiple states. As per the latest report from Pennsylvania, Trump’s lead getting narrowed over the democratic rival Biden.

Despite this, the broad-based U.S. dollar succeeded in stopping its last session losses and took some fresh bids during Friday’s Asian session as investors started to prefer the safe-haven assets in the wake of the risk-off market sentiment. However, the U.S. dollar gains seem rather unaffected by the downbeat comments from the Fed Chair Jerome Powell. On the other hand, the U.S. dollar gains were also capped by the prevalent worries over the U.S. economic recovery amid the reappearance of coronavirus cases, which could be bad for both the U.S. and the global economy. However, the U.S. dollar gains become the key factor that kept the currency pair under pressure. Simultaneously, the U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies recovered to 92.698.

The Fed has performed as broadly expected, maintaining its benchmark interest rate at the 0%-0.25% range and its bond-buying program unchanged. In the meantime, he showed readiness to fulfill its pledge to support the U.S. economy, “promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals in times of the COVID-19 pandemic.

At home, the currency pair’s losses were capped by the RBA’s monetary policy statement, in which the RBA indicated for no further reduction in interest rates, which tend to underpin the Australian dollar and helps the currency pair to limit its deeper losses.

Moving ahead, the market traders will keep their eyes on the American employment numbers for October., USD price dynamics, and coronavirus headlines, which could give a fresh direction for the currency pair. In the meantime, the updates surrounding the U.S. elections could not lose their importance on the day.


Daily Support and Resistance

S1 0.6867

S2 0.7007

S3 0.7094

Pivot Point 0.7146

R1 0.7233

R2 0.7286

R3 0.7426

The AUD/USD traded distinctly bullish at the 0.7262 area, with a critical resistance of 0.7282 and 0.7335. In the daily chart, the AUD/USD has established a substantial buying candle, conferring substantial bullish sentiment among investors. While on the lower side, the support can be seen around the 0.7230 mark. Bullish sentiment rules the market. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

USD/CAD Bearish Price Action Continues – Downward Channel In Play! 

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.30425 after placing a high of 1.31781 and a low of 1.30280. The USD/CAD pair dropped to its lowest since 1st September on the back of U.S. dollar weakness triggered by the expectations of Biden victory in the U.S. presidential elections.

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.30425 after placing a high of 1.31781 and a low of 1.30280. The USD/CAD pair dropped to its lowest since 1st September on the back of U.S. dollar weakness triggered by the expectations of Biden victory in the U.S. presidential elections.

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.30425 after placing a high of 1.31781 and a low of 1.30280. The USD/CAD pair dropped to its lowest since 1st September on the back of U.S. dollar weakness triggered by the expectations of Biden victory in the U.S. presidential elections.

The pair USD/CAD failed to capitalize its early daily gains and fell to its two months lowest level as the selling bias surrounding the U.S. dollar intensified. The greenback was weak due to the U.S. residential Election’s delayed outcome, where Democrat candidate Joe Biden was leading over the incumbent Donald Trump.

However, the final results are yet to announce as Donald Trump has already filed lawsuits against the counting of votes in key battleground states that added to the uncertainty and dampened prospects for a big stimulus package to aid the COVID-19 hit economy. It added further losses in the U.S. Treasury bond yields and contributed to the losses of the USD/JPY pair. Meanwhile, the USD/JPY pair’s downward momentum was cushioned on the back of fresh losses in crude oil prices that tend to undermine the commodity-linked Loonie. The weak Loonie then capped further losses in the USD/CAD pair on Thursday.

The crude oil prices are expected to decrease further in the coming days as the concerns about the renewed lockdown measures to curb the second wave of coronavirus infections were increasing.

On the data front, at 17: 30 GMT, the Challenger Job Cuts for the year came in as 60.4% in comparison to the previous 185.9% from the U.S. At 18:30 GMT, the Unemployment Claims for the last week surged to 751K against the projected 740K and weighed on the U.S. dollar, and added USD/CAD pair losses. The Prelim Nonfarm Productivity for the quarter surged to 4.9% against the projected 3.6% and weighed on the U.S. dollar.

At 18:32 GMT, the Prelim Unit Labor Costs for the quarter came in as -8.9% against the estimated -10.0% and supported the U.S. dollar.

Furthermore, the U.S. dollar was also weak across the board after releasing the Federal Reserve’s latest announcement to keep the interest rates and assets purchases on the same level. This selling bias in the U.S. dollar added further losses in the USD/CAD pair on Thursday.


Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.2989 1.3142

1.2931 1.3237

1.2836 1.3295

Pivot point: 1.3084

The USD/CAD is trading with a selling bias at the 1.3061 level, having an immediate resistance at 1.3097 along with support at the 1.3030 level. Violation of 1.3030 level can extend selling until 1.2970 level. The downward channel is also putting pressure on the downward trend; therefore, we should look for selling trades below the 1.3090 level today. Good luck! 

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, November 06– Top Trade Setups In Forex – NFP Figures in Highlights! 

The eyes will remain on the U.S. NFP data on the news side, which is expected to report a slight drop from 661K to 595K during the previous month. Besides, the U.S. Average Hourly Earnings m/m and Unemployment Rate will also remain the main highlight of the day, and these may determine the USD trend for today and next week. Let’s wait for the news.

The eyes will remain on the U.S. NFP data on the news side, which is expected to report a slight drop from 661K to 595K during the previous month. Besides, the U.S. Average Hourly Earnings m/m and Unemployment Rate will also remain the main highlight of the day, and these may determine the USD trend for today and next week. Let’s wait for the news.

The eyes will remain on the U.S. NFP data on the news side, which is expected to report a slight drop from 661K to 595K during the previous month. Besides, the U.S. Average Hourly Earnings m/m and Unemployment Rate will also remain the main highlight of the day, and these may determine the USD trend for today and next week. Let’s wait for the news.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

  

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed to 1.18269 after placing a high of 1.18595 and a low of 1.17106. The EUR/USD pair surged to its highest level since October 23 amid the U.S. dollar weakness ahead of U.S. election results.

The U.S. dollar came under fresh pressure after the chances for Joe Biden looked increasingly likely to claim the U.S. presidency. Furthermore, the U.S. stimulus package’s expectations will be delivered by any elected government after the results will also be announced exerted pressure on the U.S. dollar and supported the EUR/USD pair’s upward momentum.

On the data front, at 12:00 GMT, the German Factory Orders for September declined to 0.5% against the expected 2.1% and weighed on Euro. At 15:00 GMT, the Retail Sales from the Eurozone for September declined to -2.0% against the expected -1.4% and weighed on single currency Euro that capped further upside movement of EUR/USD pair on Thursday.

From the U.S. side, at 17: 30 GMT, the Challenger Job Cuts for the year from the U.S. came in as 60.4% in comparison to the previous 185.9%. At 18:30 GMT, the Unemployment Claims for the last week were rushed to 751K against the estimated 740K and weighed on the U.S. dollar added further in the gins of EUR/USD pair. The Prelim Nonfarm Productivity for the quarter surged to 4.9% against the predicted 3.6% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. At 18:32 GMT, the Prelim Unit Labor Costs for the quarter came in as -8.9% against the expected -10.0% and supported the U.S. dollar that capped further gains in EUR/USD pair.

Meanwhile, the European Commission reduced its economic growth prediction for next year after governments’ reintroduced lockdowns to control the coronavirus infections. On Thursday, the E.U. executive in Brussels anticipated Eurozone growth of 4.2 percent in 2021, down from 6.1 percent anticipated in July. For 2020, it expects the economy to shrink by 7.8 percent.

Furthermore, the ECB Governing Council member and Bundesbank President, Jens Weidmann, said that it was important for the ECB’s monetary policy to remain expansionary on Thursday. These dovish comments from ECB’s governing council member also added further pressure to cap the gains in EUR/USD. However, investors’ focus remained on the U.S. Presidential election as a winner has not been announced. As few states were still counting votes while the U.S. President Donald Trump is already disputing some results in court. It weighed heavily on the U.S. dollar and pushed the EUR/USD pair higher on board.

Daily Technical Levels

Support    Resistance

1.1733      1.1881

1.1648      1.1944

1.1585     1.2029

Pivot point: 1.1796

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD pair is trading sideways between a narrow trading range of 1.1859 – 1.1759 amid a weaker dollar. A bearish breakout of the 1.1759 level may extend the selling trend until the 1.1727 level. Simultaneously, the bullish crossover of the 1.1859 area can lead the EUR/USD pair until 1.1895. Breakout highly depends upon the U.S. NFP data today.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.31502 after placing a high of 1.31545 and a low of 1.29309. The British Pound remained in demand and moved higher on Thursday against the U.S. dollar as the chances of Biden victory increased with the counting of votes.

The Bank of England announced on Thursday that it would expand its bond-buying structure by £150 billion to £895 billion, more than the estimates of a more modest £100 boost. Moreover, the BoE also renounced from setting negative interest rates that prompted investors to price that contrary development out.

Meanwhile, on late night Thursday, the Federal Reserve decision on interest rate did just like expected and left rates and bond-buying unchanged. The emphasis was on easing an additional stimulus required from the U.S. government and weighing on the greenback throughout this week.

The U.S. Dollar Index slipped to its lowest of 92.4880 on Thursday and gave strength to the rising GBP/USD pair. On the other hand, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee unanimously voted to maintain its benchmark bank rate at 0.1%. The market attention was captured by the changes to their Quantitative Easing and economic estimates mentioned in the monetary policy report.

The committee told that the rapid rise in COVID infection rates and subsequent restrictions across the U.K. forced it to respond by increasing its asset purchasing program by 150 billion British Pound to a total of 95 billion Pound surpassed the majority of market expectations of just a 100 billion increase.

The program will last until the end of 2021 beyond the summer, and instead of declining, the British Pound increased as the U.S. dollar was also declining on the day amid the election uncertainty. This added support to the GBP/USD pair that rose above the 1.31500 level on Thursday.

On the data front, the Asset Purchase Facility was increased to 895B against the expected 845B. The official bank rate from the Bank of England remained at 0.10%. At 14:30 GMT, the Construction PMI from Britain also declined to 53.1 against the forecasted 55.0.

From the U.S. side, at 17: 30 GMT, the Challenger Job Cuts for the year from the U.S. came in as 60.4% in comparison to the previous 185.9%. At 18:30 GMT, the Unemployment Claims for the last week advanced to 751K against the projected 740K and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added further to the GBP/USD pair’s gains. The Prelim Nonfarm Productivity for the quarter rose to 4.9% against the projected 3.6% and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added strength to the GBP/USD pair. At 18:32 GMT, the Prelim Unit Labor Costs for the quarter came in as -8.9% against the estimated -10.0% and supported the U.S. dollar.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar was also weak due to Biden’s chances of victory that would allow the issuance of a massive stimulus package after the election results. These hopes also weighed on the U.S. dollar and supported the GBP/USD pair’s upward trend.

Daily Technical Levels

Support    Resistance

1.2997      1.3222

1.2851      1.3301

1.2771      1.3448

Pivot point: 1.3076

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

Just like the EUR/USD, the GBP/USD is also trading sharply bullish, having violated the narrow trading range of 1.3122 – 1.2940 area. The Cable has recently broken the double top resistance level of 1.3017 level and now heading further higher until the 1.3158 resistance area. Above this level, the odds of buying remain strong today. On the higher side, the Sterling may find next resistance around 1.3182 while the bearish breakout of 1.3037 may lead the Cable towards the 1.3005 level. Price action highly depends upon the U.S. NFP data today.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 103.514 after placing a high of 104.547 and a low of 103.441. The USD/JPY pair dropped to its lowest level since March 2020 on the back of a weak U.S. dollar due to increasing hopes for Biden recovery. On Thursday, the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0-0.25% range along with its target for asset purchases. According to the monetary policy statement, the economic activity and the employment levels have continued recovering, although they remain at levels well below those at the beginning of the year. The Federal Reserve also warned that the weaker consumer demand and the falling oil prices were holding down consumer inflation.

The comments from Fed chair Jerome Powell remained dovish as he affirmed that the pace of improvement has moderated. He also said that the economic activity continued to recover; he also warned about the highly uncertain path ahead that might have increased negative pressure on the U.S. dollar and added in the USD/JPY pair’s losses.

The U.S. dollar reversed its direction on Thursday from the previous day on the back of expectations of Joe Biden’s recovery as the counting of votes was in his favor so far. However, U.S. President Donald Trump has already filed lawsuits for recounting that could delay the results of the U.S. Presidential election.

On the data front, at 17: 30 GMT, the Challenger Job Cuts for the year came in as 60.4% in comparison to the previous 185.9% from the U.S. At 18:30 GMT, the Unemployment Claims for the last week rose to 751K against the expected 740K and weighed on the U.S. dollar and added in the USD/JPY pair’s losses. The Prelim Nonfarm Productivity for the quarter raised to 4.9% against the estimated 3.6% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. At 18:32 GMT, the Prelim Unit Labor Costs for the quarter came in as -8.9% against the projected -10.0% and supported the U.S. dollar.

The main driver of the USD/JPY pair on Thursday was Biden’s chances of winning the U.S. election 2020 as he will issue a massive stimulus package, which would cause a decline in the U.S. dollar strength.

Daily Technical Levels

Support    Resistance

103.09      104.22

102.70 104.95

101.97 105.34

Pivot point: 103.83

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY has violated the descending triangle pattern at 104.149 area, and on the lower side, it’s heading towards the next support area of 103.300 level. Violation of these ranges may determine the next trend in the USD/JPY pair. A bullish breakout of 104.149 level can extend the buying trend until 104.880. Conversely, the bearish breakout of 103.300 can lead the USD/JPY pair towards the 102.530 area. The MACD is also showing bearish bias among investors; therefore, let’s wait for a breakout before taking the next position in the USD/JPY. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, November 05 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eyes on U.S. Election Results! 

On the news front, the eyes will remain on the outcome of the U.S. elections, although Joe seems to be the next president of the United States considering the voting lead against Trump so far. Besides, the Monetary Policy decision from the Bank of England will remain in highlights. The BOE isn’t expected to make any changes in the policy; however, the press conference will be worth watching. The muted impact is expected on the news. Lastly, the Unemployment Claims from the U.S. may support the U.S. dollar today.

On the news front, the eyes will remain on the outcome of the U.S. elections, although Joe seems to be the next president of the United States considering the voting lead against Trump so far. Besides, the Monetary Policy decision from the Bank of England will remain in highlights. The BOE isn’t expected to make any changes in the policy; however, the press conference will be worth watching. The muted impact is expected on the news. Lastly, the Unemployment Claims from the U.S. may support the U.S. dollar today.

On the news front, the eyes will remain on the outcome of the U.S. elections, although Joe seems to be the next president of the United States considering the voting lead against Trump so far. Besides, the Monetary Policy decision from the Bank of England will remain in highlights. The BOE isn’t expected to make any changes in the policy; however, the press conference will be worth watching. The muted impact is expected on the news. Lastly, the Unemployment Claims from the U.S. may support the U.S. dollar today.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.17227 after placing a high of 1.17706 and a low of 1.16025. After falling to its lowest since mid-July, the EUR/USD pair reversed and started to rise and ended Wednesday with gains. The EUR/USD pair has been having a highly volatile week so far as uncertainty around the U.S. 2020 Presidential Election intensifies. Results have been tighter than the market’s expectations, and investors felt hesitant to sell the safe-haven U.S. dollar.

On Wednesday, the U.S. dollar rally kept the EUR/USD pair under pressure and made it hard to sustain gains Wednesday as both share a negative correlation. Moreover, the Eurozone’s coronavirus situation also worsened as the pandemic’s second wave raised across the bloc and forced many major economies, including Germany and France, to re-introduce fresh restrictions and lockdown measures.

In turn, the ECB has been signaling that it could introduce a new monetary policy stimulus that only added in the weakness of Euro currency and kept the gains in EUR/USD pair limited on Wednesday.

On the data front, at 13:00 GMT, the Spanish Unemployment Change for October came in as 49.6K compared to the previous -26.3K. At 13:15 GMT, the Spanish Services PMI for October raised to 41.1 from the forecasted 40.0 and supported Euro and added further in EUR/USD air’s gains. AT 13:45 GMT, the Italian Services PMI for October declined to 46.7 against the forecasted 47.4 and weighed on Euro.

 At 13:50 GMT, the French Final Services PMI remained flat at 46.5. At 13:55 GMT, the German Final Services PMI raised to 49.5 against the forecasted 48.9 and supported the single currency Euro. At 14:00 GMT, the Final Services PMI from the whole bloc for October also surged to 46.9 against the forecasted 46.2 and supported the single currency Euro and added further upside momentum to EUR/USD pair.

From the U.S. side, at 18:15 GMT, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change for October dropped to 365K against the estimated 650K and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added strength to the upward momentum of the EUR/SD pair. At 18:30 GMT, the Trade Balance from the U.S. for October came in line with the expectations of -63.9B. At 19:45 GMT, the Final Services PMI for October surged to 56.9 from the projected 56.0 and supported the U.S. dollar and capped further gains in EUR.USD pair.

At 20:00 GMT, the ISM Services PMI for October fell to 56.6 from the anticipated 57.4 and weighed on the U.S. dollar and provided support to the rising EUR/USD pair.

The U.S. dollar is a safe-haven currency that tends to rise during uncertain environment and in the U.S. 2020 Presidential Election, the fears that election result could be close or contested, it led to a rise in the safe-haven demand and the U.S. dollar, that ultimately added pressure on EUR/USD pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support    Resistance

1.1650      1.1757

1.1588      1.1802

1.1543      1.1864

Pivot point: 1.1695

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is trading sideways, with a wide trading range of 1.1615 to 1.1760 area as the U.S. elections keep the markets on the move. On the lower side, the bearish breakout of the 1.1615 area can extend selling until the next support area of the 1.1591 level. The release of European services PMI data may support the pair; elsewhere, the outcome of elections may drive further market movement. The MACD is entering the selling zone, but we may not see further selling until the 1.1615 level gets violated. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.29142 after placing a high of 1.31401 and a low of 1.29839. The broad-based U.S. dollar strength added pressure on GBP/USD pair and kept it on the bearish track on Wednesday.

The uncertainty surrounding the U.S. election results increased after the race to White House became tighter than anticipation. However, the results from key battle states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania were delayed. This uncertainty forced investors to hold onto their U.S. dollar positions and weighed on GBP/USD pair.

On the previous day, the markets were moving on Biden recovery expectations, but as results from different states were announced, the election results became tighter. Chances for a divided government increased, and the blue wave decreased that raised the U.S. dollar onboard and weighed on GBP/USD pair.

On the data front, at 14:30 GMT, the Final Services PMI for October fell to 51.4 against the estimated 52.3 and weighed on British Pound. From the U.S. side, at 18:15 GMT, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change for October fell to 365K against the expected 650K and weighed on the U.S. dollar. At 18:30 GMT, the Trade Balance from the U.S. for October came in line with the anticipations of -63.9B. At 19:45 GMT, the Final Services PMI for October rushed to 56.9 from the estimated 56.0 and supported the U.S. dollar and weighed on GBP/USD pair. At 20:00 GMT, the ISM Services PMI for October declined to 56.6 from the projected 57.4 and weighed on the U.S. dollar.

In the U.K., the lawmakers approved a one-month lockdown for England as the coronavirus cases were continuously increasing. On Wednesday, the U.K. reported 25,177 new cases in a single day against Tuesday’s 20,018. The British Pound came under fresh pressure after these depressing highlights from the U.K. and added further losses in GBP/USD pair.

The Bank of England will release its monetary policy decision on Thursday. The uncertainty about the decision of BoE also increased with the escalated version of the coronavirus pandemic. The Bank is expected to keep rates stable, but as the lockdowns are re-introduced banks could change its decision and announce further easing. These uncertainties also kept the local currency under pressure and kept weighing on GBP/USD pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.2913      1.2941

1.2898      1.2954

1.2884      1.2969

Pivot point; 1.2926

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

Just like the EUR/USD, the GBP/USD is also trading sideways in between a narrow trading range of 1.3122 – 1.2940 area. The Cable has recently violated the downward channel, supporting the GBP/USD pair around the 1.2940 level. Above this level, the odds of buying remain strong today. On the higher side, the Sterling may find next resistance around 1.3122 while the bearish breakout of 1.2940 may lead the Cable towards the 1.2855 level. A choppy session is expected today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 104.517 after placing a high of 105.343 and a low of 104.149. The USD/JPY pair moved upward towards its 11-days highest level on Wednesday but it lost most of its daily gains in the late trading session.

The primary driver of the USD/JPY pair was the USD’s market valuation on Wednesday. As the early election results showed that the blue wave was un-likely, it supported the safe-haven U.S. dollar and pushed the USD/JPY pair higher. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) also rose on Wednesday and moved to the 94.30 level.

As the markets were moving in previous days over the chances of Biden victory, after tighter election results, the chances for divided government increased and weighed on market sentiment. The hopes for larger stimulus also faded away with the declining hopes of the blue wave and the U.S. dollar gained through it and supported a strong bullish move on Wednesday.

However, on late night Tuesday, when it was clear that there will not be a winner, President Trump falsely claimed victory when millions of votes were still uncounted in the tight presidential race. This weighed on the U.S. dollar and the pair USD/JPY started to rise.

On the data front, at 18:15 GMT, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change for October dropped to 365K against the projected 650K and weighed on the U.S. dollar. At 18:30 GMT, the Trade Balance from the U.S. for October remained flat with the expectations of -63.9B. At 19:45 GMT, the Final Services PMI for October raised to 56.9 from the projected 56.0 and supported the U.S. dollar. At 20:00 GMT, the ISM Services PMI for October dropped to 56.6 from the expected 57.4 and weighed on the U.S. dollar.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan released its monetary policy meeting of September on Wednesday that showed that some policymakers called for deeper scrutiny on how to address the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic as the economic outlook remained highly uncertain.

Many in the nine-member board agreed that it was sufficient to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary policy, for now, to cushion the economic blow from the pandemic. But some saw the need to debate how the BOJ could re-shape its policy in an era where the population must balance the need to contain the virus and sustain economic activity.

The Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has said that the central bank’s focus will be on providing liquidity to cash-strapped firms hit by the pandemic. He has also indicated that deeper debate on how to achieve its 2 percent inflation target will be put on the back burner—these added strengths in the Japanese Yen and capped gains in the USD/JPY pair on Wednesday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

104.32      104.71

104.19      104.95

103.94      105.09

Pivot point: 104.57

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading choppy in between a wide trading range of 105.64 to 104.420 level. Violation of these ranges may determine the next trend in the USD/JPY pair. A bullish breakout of 105.062 level can extend the buying trend until 105.590. Conversely, the bearish breakout of 104.426 can lead the USD/JPY pair towards the 104 area. The MACD is also showing mixed bias among investors; therefore, let’s wait for a breakout before taking the next position in the USD/JPY. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, November 04 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eyes on U.S. Election Results! 

On the news front, the market is exhibiting mixed but sharp movements in the wake of U.S. elections. Democratic party’s Joe Biden seems to take the lead so far, and his winning remains solid. The market is exhibiting safe-haven appeal in the wake of election results. Besides, the European economy is due to release Services PMI figures that may drive some price action in the market, but most of it is likely to be overshadowed by the U.S. election outcome. 

On the news front, the market is exhibiting mixed but sharp movements in the wake of U.S. elections. Democratic party’s Joe Biden seems to take the lead so far, and his winning remains solid. The market is exhibiting safe-haven appeal in the wake of election results. Besides, the European economy is due to release Services PMI figures that may drive some price action in the market, but most of it is likely to be overshadowed by the U.S. election outcome. 

On the news front, the market is exhibiting mixed but sharp movements in the wake of U.S. elections. Democratic party’s Joe Biden seems to take the lead so far, and his winning remains solid. The market is exhibiting safe-haven appeal in the wake of election results. Besides, the European economy is due to release Services PMI figures that may drive some price action in the market, but most of it is likely to be overshadowed by the U.S. election outcome. 

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 


 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.17198 after placing a high of 1.17396 and a low of 1.16297. The EUR/USD pair surged on Tuesday and recovered some of its previous daily losses of 6 consecutive sessions. The pair climbed to 1.1739 level on U.S. Election Day as the U.S. dollar was down by 0.83% on the day, and the U.S. Dollar Index was trading at a six-day lower level under 93.40. The improvement in the market sentiment could be attributed to the declining expectations of any outcome of a disputed election that could result in a legal battle, political and social tension.

The rise in EUR/USD pair’s prices was also because of the anticipations of a so-called Blue wave outcome of the U.S. election. As the victory of Joe Biden would have a negative impact on the U.S. dollar amid his intentions to deliver a massive stimulus package after his victory, the EUR/USD pair gained further and rose to its three days highest level on Tuesday.

Apart from the U.S. election, rally in EUR/USD pair continued on the day due to risk appetite after European Central Bank reported that Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) would likely remain the main instrument to increase the stimulus at the next meeting as the ECB has already committed to act in December and has not ruled out using all available instruments. However, the virus spread and the subsequent lockdowns could weigh on EUR/USD pair in the coming days.

On Tuesday, France reported the highest death toll since April, and both Netherlands and Hungary announced new virus lockdowns. These concerning situations in Eurozone related to the coronavirus pandemic kept the gains in EUR/USD pair limited on Tuesday.

On the data front, the French GOV Budget Balance was released at 12:45 GMT that came in as -161.6B for September compared to Previous -165.7B. From the U.S. side, the Wards Total Vehicle Sales dropped to 16.2M from the expected 16.5M and weighed on the U.S. dollar that ultimately added further gains in EUR/USD pair on Tuesday.

The main driver of the EUR/USD pair remained the U.S. dollar on the U.S. Election Day on Tuesday that was under pressure in the uncertain environment and continued supporting the EUR/USD pair’s upward momentum,

Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.1624     1.1657

1.1607     1.1673

1.1591     1.1690

Pivot point: 1.1640

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is trading sideways, with a wide trading range of 1.1615 to 1.1760 area as the U.S. elections keep the markets on the move. On the lower side, the bearish breakout of the 1.1615 area can extend selling until the next support area of the 1.1591 level. The release of European services PMI data may support the pair; elsewhere, the outcome of elections may drive further market movement. The MACD is entering the selling zone, but we may not see further selling until the 1.1615 level gets violated. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.30635 after placing a high f 1.30787 and a low of 1.29073. The GBP/USD pair reached its five-day highest level on Tuesday amid broad-based U.S. dollar weakness during the U.S. Election Day.

The Americans were heading to the polls, and the market participants were shrugging off the risk aversion by anticipating a clear Democratic victory that would open the way for a larger fiscal stimulus package and, thus, weakened the U.S. dollar, ultimately added in the gains of GBP/USD pair.

Meanwhile, the lack of any news from the Brexit negotiations that have limited period left as the December 31 deadline was near, along with the introduction of a one-month lockdown in the U.K. to curb the traders ignored the effects of COVID-19 infections on Tuesday that could have capped further gains in the currency pair GBP/USD.

Despite there was no news related to Brexit progress from the ongoing talks between the E.U. and the U.K., the hopes for a last-minute deal helped prop up the British Pound. These hopes, combined with the U.S. dollar weakness, added additional gains in GBP/USD pair. The U.S. dollar index fell sharply to below 93.50 level, and it was down by 0.75%.

On the data front, the U.S. Factory Orders for September came in as 1.1% from the expected 1.0%, and the U.S. Wards Total Vehicle dropped to 16.2M from the anticipated 16.5 M weighed on the U.S. dollar that helped the British Pound to U.S. dollar exchange rate.

On the Brexit front, the reports indicated that talks were stuck between both parties on a level playing field and fisheries, the two main issues that stalled progress a month ago. However, other areas like social security saw progress and raised bars for a Brexit deal before the transition period. Both top negotiators Michel Barnier and David Frost will report on the progress of recent talks on Wednesday, and traders are keenly awaiting it.

The pair GBP/USD likely continue trading alongside risk-related sentiment during the upcoming sessions. As well as British Pound will not ignore any Brexit-related headlines once the picture of the U.S. election became clear.  

Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.2913     1.2941

1.2898     1.2954

1.2884     1.2969

Pivot point; 1.2926

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

Just like the EUR/USD, the GBP/USD is also trading sideways in between a narrow trading range of 1.3122 – 1.2940 area. The Cable has recently violated the downward channel, supporting the GBP/USD pair around the 1.2940 level. Above this level, the odds of buying remain strong today. On the higher side, the Sterling may find next resistance around 1.3122 while the bearish breakout of 1.2940 may lead the Cable towards the 1.2855 level. A choppy session is expected today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 104.497 after placing a high of 104.799 and a low of 104.431. After placing gains for three consecutive sessions, the pair reversed and posted losses on Tuesday. The U.S. dollar was under pressure on the day and was moving below 93.49 level on the back of expectations of a sweeping Democratic Party victory. The so-called blue-wave where the Joe-Biden with Democrats will take both Houses of Congress would indicate that further stimulus was on the way.

Since markets started to price in a global economic recovery, the U.S. dollar was on the back foot, a coronavirus vaccine, and ongoing fiscal and central bank stimulus in anticipation of renewed reflationary momentum.

The uncertainty over the vote’s outcome kept the safe-haven appeal in demand and continued supporting the Japanese Yen due to its safe-haven status and weighed on the USD/JPY pair. The uncertainty further escalated after Trump showed his willingness to challenge any unfavorable outcome to him legally. It came in response to the Initial polls that suggested that Biden was in the lead, and there will be a Blue/Democratic wave in the election. However, the revised readings showed that the gap between Trump and Biden was tightened.

Biden accused Trump of mishandling the COVID-19 pandemic and deserting safety precautions, including the mandated mask-use that could have saved countless lives from the crisis. Trump refuted that the American economy would be shattered under Biden, who wanted to raise most wealthy taxes.

If Biden wins the election, expectations are high that he will issue a massive stimulus package that would weigh on the U.S. dollar and ultimately drag the USD/JPY pair on the downside. Because of the stimulus package, traders started pricing it and kept selling the USD/JPY pair on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, on the data front, there was no macroeconomic release from Japan due to Bank Holiday. From the U.S., at 20:00 GMT, the Factory Orders in September elevated to 1.1% from the estimated 1.0%. The Wards Total Vehicle Sales for October weakened to 16.2 against the anticipated 16.5M and weighed on the U.S. dollar that ultimately added pressure on the USD/JPY pair on Tuesday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

104.56     104.92

104.40     105.12

104.20     105.28

Pivot point: 104.76

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading choppy in between a wide trading range of 105.64 to 104.420 level. Violation of these ranges may determine the next trend in the USD/JPY pair. A bullish breakout of 105.062 level can extend the buying trend until 105.590. Conversely, the bearish breakout of 104.426 can lead the USD/JPY pair towards the 104 area. The MACD is also showing mixed bias among investors; therefore, let’s wait for a breakout before taking the next position in the USD/JPY. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

USD/CAD Extended Overnight Gains & Hit the Intra-Day – Elections In Play! 

Today in the Asian trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair managed to stop its three-day downtrend and witnessed some heavy buying around above mid-1.3200 level, mainly due to the broad-based U.S. dollar strength. However, the bullish sentiment around the U.S. dollar was being supported by President Donald Trump’s victory in Florida, which pushed the currency pair intraday high. 

Today in the Asian trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair managed to stop its three-day downtrend and witnessed some heavy buying around above mid-1.3200 level, mainly due to the broad-based U.S. dollar strength. However, the bullish sentiment around the U.S. dollar was being supported by President Donald Trump’s victory in Florida, which pushed the currency pair intraday high. 

Today in the Asian trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair managed to stop its three-day downtrend and witnessed some heavy buying around above mid-1.3200 level, mainly due to the broad-based U.S. dollar strength. However, the bullish sentiment around the U.S. dollar was being supported by President Donald Trump’s victory in Florida, which pushed the currency pair intraday high. 

On the contrary, the upticks in the oil prices, backed by the bigger-than-expected draw in the U.S. crude stockpiles, became the key factor that kept the lid on any additional crude gains oil prices. Moreover, the bullish sentiment around the crude oil prices was also supported by the reports suggesting that OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) maintaining current production restrictions, which tend to ease oversupply fears and contribute to oil prices. Currently, the USD/CAD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3234 and consolidating in the range between 1.3093 – 1.3278.

As we all know, the market risk sentiment has been flashing mixed signals since the day started amid U.S. election polls. However, the expectations of a blue wave in the U.S. Congress weakened quickly after President Donald Trump won Florida’s key battleground state. Conversely, the Arizona governor said that it was too early to call the state for Biden. As per Fox News, the tally on the electoral College now stands at 233 for both Joe Biden and Donald Trump, indicating that the race is tighter than expected.

At the USD front, the broad-based U.S. dollar managed to keep its gains throughout the day as the traders still cheering President Donald Trump’s victory in Florida. Put, the bid tone around the safe-haven greenback seems to have increased in response to betting markets having President Trump as the favorite to win elections. However, the U.S. dollar gains seem rather unaffected by the risk-on market sentiment. Thus, the gains in the U.S. dollar become the key factor that kept the currency pair higher. Meantime, the U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a bucket of other currencies rose to 93.898.

 At the crude oil front, the crude oil prices succeeded in gaining positive traction and surged to the $38.80 mark after a surprise draw of -8.01M, against 4.55M prior, in private inventory data published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday. This, in turn, boosted crude oil prices by over 3% overnight. Furthermore, the sentiment around crude oil was improved further after the reports concluded that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies maintained current production restrictions, which tend to ease oversupply fears and contribute to the oil prices. Thus, the rise in oil prices underpinned demand for the commodity-linked currency the loonie and became the major factor that capped the pair’s further gains.

In the absence of significant data/events on the day, the market traders will keep their eyes on the continuous drama surrounding the U.S. elections and updates about the U.S. stimulus package. 


Daily Support and Resistance

S1 1.2899

S2 1.3029

S3 1.3083

Pivot Point 1.3158

R1 1.3213

R2 1.3288

R3 1.3418

The USD/CAD is trading with a bullish bias at the 1.3278 level, having violated the immediate resistance level of 1.3223. it’s the same level extended by an upward channel, which got violated a couple of days ago. On the higher side, we can expect the USD/CAD pair to continue trading bullish until the 1.3323 level, as the MACD is also in support of the buying trend. The recent bullish engulfing is in support of buying; however, the election results may drive some volatility in the market. Let’s wait for a trading signal! 

Categories
Forex Signals

AUD/USD Reverse Overnight Bearish Moves – Eyes on 0.7206 Resistance! 

The AUD/USD currency pair succeeded to stop its overnight declining streak and drew some modest bids around above mid-0.7000 level mainly due to the risk-on market sentiment, which tends to underpin the perceived risk currency Australian dollar and contributes to the currency pair gains. Hence, the market trading sentiment was being supported by upbeat activity data from the U.S., China, and Europe, which rekindled economic recovery hopes and underpinned the market risk-tone. 

The AUD/USD currency pair succeeded to stop its overnight declining streak and drew some modest bids around above mid-0.7000 level mainly due to the risk-on market sentiment, which tends to underpin the perceived risk currency Australian dollar and contributes to the currency pair gains. Hence, the market trading sentiment was being supported by upbeat activity data from the U.S., China, and Europe, which rekindled economic recovery hopes and underpinned the market risk-tone. 

The AUD/USD currency pair succeeded to stop its overnight declining streak and drew some modest bids around above mid-0.7000 level mainly due to the risk-on market sentiment, which tends to underpin the perceived risk currency Australian dollar and contributes to the currency pair gains. Hence, the market trading sentiment was being supported by upbeat activity data from the U.S., China, and Europe, which rekindled economic recovery hopes and underpinned the market risk-tone. 

Apart from this, the market trading sentiment was further bolstered by the updates suggesting continuous progress of Brexit talks between the U.K. and the European Union (E.U.), which extended further support to the currency pair. Across the pond, the broad-based U.S. dollar selling bias, triggered by the marker risk-on sentiment, also played its major role in supporting the currency pair. Moreover, the losses in the U.S. dollar was further bolstered by the intensifying doubts over the U.S. economic recovery ahead of the U.S. presidential elections. 

On the contrary, the long-lasting coronavirus woes globally, as well as delays in the U.S. covid stimulus, keep challenging the upbeat market sentiment, which becomes the key factor that kept the lid on any additional gains in the currency pair. In the meantime, the gains in the currency pair were further capped by the reports suggesting that the RBA is expected to cut the benchmark rate and announce more Q.E. At this time, the AUD/USD currency pair is currently trading at 0.7057 and consolidating in the range between 0.7044 – 0.7063.

Despite the concern about the second wave of coronavirus infections, which leads the lockdown measures, the market trading sentiment remained positive during the early Asian session amid positive developments surrounding the Brexit talks between the U.K. and the European Union (E.U.), which in turn, underpinned the perceived risk currency Australian dollar and contributed to the currency pair gains. 

Across the ocean, bullish sentiment around the equity market was further bolstered by the upbeat activity numbers from the U.S., China, and Europe, which rekindled economic recovery hopes and underpinned the market trading sentiment. As per the latest report, the ISM manufacturing index jumped to the highest in more than two years.

As in result, the S&P 500 futures succeeded to extend its overnight positive momentum and remain bullish on the day, which tends to undermine the demand for the safe-haven U.S. dollar and extended support to the currency pair. Despite the upbeat U.S. data, the broad-based U.S. dollar failed to erase its overnight losses and remained under pressure on the day mainly due to the marker risk-on tone. Apart from this, the resurgence of coronavirus keeps fueling the fears that the U.S. economic recovery could be halt, which also keeps the greenback under pressure. However, the losses in the U.S. dollar could be considered as the major factor that kept the currency pair higher. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a bucket of other currencies dropped to 93.977.

On the contrary, the intensifying coronavirus woes across the globe, as well as, intensifying lockdowns restrictions in Europe keep challenging the upbeat market sentiment and become the key factor that kept the lid on any additional gains in the currency pair. As per the latest report, Europe declared this weekend second lockdowns amid surging coronavirus cases. It is worth recalling that the market and industry professionals were not expecting renewed lockdowns for whole countries. Late last week, Austria announced a second lockdown until the end of November, including closing hotels for tourism, as well as restaurants except for takeaway and delivery. Apart from froths, the U.K., one of the largest economies in Europe, is also imposing lockdown restrictions while Belgium also returned to a nationwide lockdown. 

Elsewhere, the growing probabilities that the RBA will cut interest rates in November could also be considered as one of the key factors that kept the lid on any additional gains in the currency pair. It is worth recalling that the benchmark interest rate likely cut to 0.10% from 0.25%. 

In the absence of the major data/events on the day, the market traders will keep their eyes on the monetary policy meeting of the RBA and the U.S. presidential election for fresh directions. In the meantime, the risk catalyst like geopolitics and the virus woes, not to forget the Brexit, will also be key to watch.


Daily Support and Resistance

S1 0.69

S2 0.6966

S3 0.7008

Pivot Point 0.7033

R1 0.7075

R2 0.71

R3 0.7166

The AUD/USD has traded sharply bullish amid weaker U.S. dollar, as the pair crossed over 0.7150 level. On the higher side, the AUD/USD pair may head further higher until the next resistance area of 0.7199 level. The MACD and RSI are extremely overbought, and however, we have to wait for bearish reversal candles ahead of opening a sell trade in Aussie. On the lower side, the Aussie can find support at 0.7150 and 0.7105 mark. Let’s wait for the U.S. elections before opening any further trades today. Good luck!  

Categories
Forex Signals

USD/CAD Heading for Triple Bottom Support – Brace for the Buying Signal!  

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.32158 after placing a high of 1.33702 and a low of 1.32153. The USD/CAD pair dropped on Monday after posting gains for three consecutive sessions. Despite the broad-based U.S. dollar strength, the USD/CAD pair fell on Monday and posted sharp losses on the back of the strength of the Canadian Dollar and rising crude oil prices.

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.32158 after placing a high of 1.33702 and a low of 1.32153. The USD/CAD pair dropped on Monday after posting gains for three consecutive sessions. Despite the broad-based U.S. dollar strength, the USD/CAD pair fell on Monday and posted sharp losses on the back of the strength of the Canadian Dollar and rising crude oil prices.

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.32158 after placing a high of 1.33702 and a low of 1.32153. The USD/CAD pair dropped on Monday after posting gains for three consecutive sessions. Despite the broad-based U.S. dollar strength, the USD/CAD pair fell on Monday and posted sharp losses on the back of the strength of the Canadian Dollar and rising crude oil prices.

The Loonie has been unaffected by the broad-based U.S. dollar strength on Monday as the WTI crude oil prices rebounded by 2% on the day and provided strength to the commodity-linked Loonie.

Furthermore, the risk sentiment was also improved in the market as the main equity indexes advanced on Monday, and oil prices also rose by $2 per barrel. The Chinese factory data also showed advancement along with the improved U.S. manufacturing activity offset the concerns about the coronavirus spread and supported the Canadian Dollar against the U.S. dollar and dragged the pair USD/CAD on the lower side.

On the data front, at 19:30 GMT, the Manufacturing PMI from Canada for October was declined to 55.5 from the previous month’s 56.0 and weighed on the Canadian Dollar that capped further losses in the USD/CAD pair.

Whereas, from the U.S. side, at 19:45 GMT, the Final Manufacturing PMI for October came in line with the projections of 53.4. At 20:00 GMT, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for October rose to 59.3 from the anticipated 55.6 and supported the U.S. dollar. The Construction Spending for September dropped to 0.3% from the estimated 1.0% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The ISM Manufacturing Prices for October also surged to 65.6 against the anticipated 60.5 and supported the U.S. dollar. The positive U.S. macroeconomic data on Monday limited the additional losses in the USD/CAD pair.

The U.S. dollar came under fresh pressure ahead of the upcoming U.S. election as both candidates Joe Biden and Donald Trump have said that they would introduce the next round of U.S. stimulus after the elections. The fact that stimulus measures will be delivered regardless of who will win the election weighed on the U.S. dollar and added further losses in the USD/CAD pair on Monday.


Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.3334 1.3388

1.3297 1.3407

1.3279 1.3443

Pivot point: 1.3352

Technically, the USD/CAD fell sharply amid weakness in the U.S. dollar ahead of the U.S. elections. On the lower side, the USD/CAD is facing support at 1.3103 level, and closing of a candle over 1.3103 level can drive bullish movement in the USD/CAD pair. The MACD has entered the oversold zone; therefore, we may have an opportunity to go long over 1.3103 level today.

Entry Price – Buy Limit 1.3086

Stop Loss – 1.3046

Take Profit – 1.3126

Risk to Reward – 1:1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, November 03 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – U.S. Presidential Election in Highlights!

On the news front, eyes will remain on the U.S. Presidential Election. The voters will elect the 46th President of the United States. The winner will likely be projected before the official vote count is announced, based on early vote counts and exit polling. Besides, the U.S. Factory Orders m/m are also due, but their impact is likely to be overshadowed by the U.S. elections. 

On the news front, eyes will remain on the U.S. Presidential Election. The voters will elect the 46th President of the United States. The winner will likely be projected before the official vote count is announced, based on early vote counts and exit polling. Besides, the U.S. Factory Orders m/m are also due, but their impact is likely to be overshadowed by the U.S. elections. 

On the news front, eyes will remain on the U.S. Presidential Election. The voters will elect the 46th President of the United States. The winner will likely be projected before the official vote count is announced, based on early vote counts and exit polling. Besides, the U.S. Factory Orders m/m are also due, but their impact is likely to be overshadowed by the U.S. elections. 

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.16399 after placing a high of 1.16554 and a low of 1.16218. EUR/USD pair extended its losses and dropped for the 6th consecutive session on Monday amid the rising safe-haven appeal and coronavirus situation in Europe. The EUR/USD pair ended its day with modest losses as the currency pair’s bearish momentum was somehow cooled down because of the positive PMI data from European nations. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar was also strong onboard due to its safe-haven status as well as due to the strong macroeconomic data on Monday.

At 13:15 GMT, the Spanish Manufacturing PMI for October raised to 52.5 against the expected 51.0 and supported the single currency Euro. At 13:45 GMT, the Italian Manufacturing PMI for October remained flat with a forecast of 53.9. At 13:50 GMT, the French Final Manufacturing PMI for October also came in as expected 51.3. At 13:55 GMT, the German Final Manufacturing PMI came in line with the anticipations of 58.0. At 14:00 GMT, the Final Manufacturing PMI for the whole bloc in October raised to 54.8 from the expected 54.4 and supported the single currency Euro.

Europe’s positive PMI data gave some support to Euro that ultimately capped further losses in EUR/USD pair.

From the U.S. side, at 19:45 GMT, the Final Manufacturing PMI for October remained flat at 53.4. At 20:00 GMT, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for October rushed to 59.3 from the estimated 55.6 and supported the U.S. dollar. The Construction Spending for September fell to 0.3% from the projected 1.0% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The ISM Manufacturing Prices for October also elevated to 65.6 against the anticipated 60.5 and supported the U.S. dollar.

On Monday, the positive data from the U.S. made the U.S. dollar even stronger and supported the downside movement of the EUR/USD pair.

Furthermore, the U.S. dollar was set to lose its bullishness in the days ahead as markets were keenly waiting for the U.S. presidential elections’ results. Although the uncertainty persists in the market regarding the election’s outcome, this is the critical time to enter or place any position in the market. This is the reason behind the consolidated movement of the EUR/USD pair on Monday.

Furthermore, both the U.S. election candidates, Biden and Trump, have said that they would deliver a big stimulus package after the election. So, it means the next round of stimulus packages will be delivered regardless of the winner. These hopes kept weighing in the U.S. dollar and capped further losses in EUR/USD pair.

On the other hand, the renewed lockdown restrictions in France, Germany, Italy, and Belgian to curb the effect of coronavirus pandemic raised the concerns for Eurozone economic recovery and kept weighing on single currency that kept the EUR/USD pair on the downside.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.1637     1.1651

1.1631     1.1659

1.1623     1.1665

Pivot point: 1.1645

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD traded with a bearish bias, having dropped below the support area of 1.1653. At the moment, the EUR/USD is likely to face the resistance at the same level of 1.1653. On the higher side, a bullish crossover of 1.1653 increases the odds of continuing an upward trend, and it may lead the EUR/USD price towards 1.1700. Further bullish crossover of this area can lead the pair towards the 1.1758 level. Conversely, a bearish crossover of 1.1653 support level has opened additional room for selling until the 1.1613 area as a double bottom support area extends the level.  

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.29180 after placing a high of 1.29426 and a low of 1.28539. The British Pound started to decline against the U.S. dollar at the starting day of the week as the hopes raised for further monetary easing by the Bank of England this week following the second lockdown in England.

Over the weekend, the U.K. announced that it would enter a second national lockdown for a month to control the rise in coronavirus infections. On Monday, the coronavirus cases fell to 18,950 in comparison to 10,900 cases a week ago. The expectations for further easing came on board after the Britain government made this announcement on the weekend.

The new lockdown measures in the U.K. demand the people stay at home unless there is an essential purpose like education, medical reason, or shopping for groceries. However, economists have warned that country would enter a double-dip recession if it enters another lockdown as it will dent the economic growth in the final quarter of the year. These concerns kept the risk sentiment under pressure and weighed on British Pound that ultimately added the GBP/USD pair’s losses.

On the data front, at14:30 GMT, the Final Manufacturing PMI from Great Britain was raised to 53.7against the expected 53.3 and supported British Pound and capped further losses in GBP/USD pair. From the U.S. side, at 19:45 GMT, the Final Manufacturing PMI for October came in line with the anticipations of 53.4. At 20:00 GMT, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for October raised to 59.3 from the forecasted 55.6 and supported the U.S. dollar. The Construction Spending for September plunged to 0.3% from the forecasted 1.0% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The ISM Manufacturing Prices for October also rose to 65.6 against the estimated 60.5 and supported the U.S. dollar.

The positive PMI data from the U.S. gave strength to the U.S. dollar and added further pressure on GBP/USD pair. On the Central Bank front, the BOE will have its monetary policy meeting on Thursday, and the hopes are that it will refrain from announcing negative rates, and the bank could also introduce another easing for supporting the economy.

On the Brexit front, the Brexit-talks continue in Brussels as the U.K. and the E.U. were working to avoid a no-deal Brexit. However, no fresh headlines were seen regarding this matter on Monday that kept the currency pair under the mercy of a strong U.S. dollar across the board.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.2913     1.2941

1.2898     1.2954

1.2884     1.2969

Pivot point; 1.2926

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading sharply bearish to trade over the double bottom support area of 1.2910 level. On the 2 hour timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has formed a downward channel, and bearish trend continuation can lead the pair further lower towards the next support area of 1.2830 level. However, to see that kind of selling, the Cable needs to violate the immediate support area of 1.2910. The MACD and 50 EMA support selling; therefore, we should look for a selling trade below the 1.2910 level today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 104.749 after placing a high of 104.947 and a low of 104.514. The USD/JPY pair rose and posted gains for the third consecutive session on Monday amid the broad-based U.S. dollar strength. The U.S. dollar pushed higher in the early European session on Monday as European nations imposed more lockdowns on the back of an incessant rise in coronavirus cases. The uncertainty surrounding the upcoming U.S. elections also weighed on market sentiment and kept the USD/JPY pair higher.

The U.K. joined Germany and France over the weekend and re-introduced partial lockdowns to curb the coronavirus’s spread. Europe crossed the 10 million total cases of coronavirus infections and supported the safe-haven appeal that added further strength to the U.S. dollar.

The Bank of England will hold its monetary policy meeting on Thursday, and investors believe that the bank will increase the asset purchases by 150-200 billion British Pounds. These hopes forced the investors to stick with the U.S. currency in these uncertain times, but the ranges were tight as the markets were under pressure ahead of Tuesday’s U.S. presidential election.

The U.S. dollar was also strong because of the rising hopes for the victory of Joe Biden in the upcoming election as he has maintained a healthy lead over his competitor Donald Trump in national polls over the weekend before elections. Furthermore, some of the gains in the USD/JPY pair were lost in the late trading session as the traders were also waiting for the upcoming Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting on Thursday.

On the data front, at 05:30 GMT, the Final Manufacturing PMI from Japan for October raised to 48.7 from the forecasted 48.0 and supported the Japanese Yen that capped further upside in USD/JPY pair. From the U.S. side, at 19:45 GMT, the Final Manufacturing PMI from the U.S. for October remained flat at 53.4. At 20:00 GMT, the ISM Manufacturing PMI from the U.S. advanced to 59.3 from the estimated 55.6 in October and supported the U.S. dollar. The Construction Spending for September fell to 0.3% from the predicted 1.0% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The ISM Manufacturing Prices for October also raised to 65.6 against the projected 60.5 and supported the U.S. dollar. The U.S. dollar was further supported by the positive results from the macroeconomic data, and it helped the USD/JPY pair to post gains on Monday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

104.51     104.66

104.45     104.75

104.35     104.81

Pivot point: 104.60

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading slightly bullish at the 104.745 level, having crossed over the immediate resistance area of the 104.600 mark. On the 2 hour timeframe, the USD/JPY has violated the downward trendline at 104.550 level, and now the same level is likely to support the USD/JPY pair. The closing of candles over 104.650 level is supporting strong odds of bullish trend continuation until 105.049 level. Further bullish trend continuation can also lead the USD/JPY pair towards the 105.800 level. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

USD/CHF Set for Bearish Correction – U.S. Elections in Play!  

During Tuesday’s Early Asian trading session, the USD/CHF extended its overnight losses and remain depressed around just above the 0.9167 support level mainly due to the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness. However, the prevalent downtrend in the greenback is mainly tied to the upbeat activity numbers from the U.S., China, and Europe, which rekindled economic recovery hopes and kept market trading sentiment positive. Moreover, the political uncertainty in the U.S. also weighs on the already weaker U.S. dollar, which adds further burden around the currency pair.

During Tuesday’s Early Asian trading session, the USD/CHF extended its overnight losses and remain depressed around just above the 0.9167 support level mainly due to the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness. However, the prevalent downtrend in the greenback is mainly tied to the upbeat activity numbers from the U.S., China, and Europe, which rekindled economic recovery hopes and kept market trading sentiment positive. Moreover, the political uncertainty in the U.S. also weighs on the already weaker U.S. dollar, which adds further burden around the currency pair.

During Tuesday’s Early Asian trading session, the USD/CHF extended its overnight losses and remain depressed around just above the 0.9167 support level mainly due to the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness. However, the prevalent downtrend in the greenback is mainly tied to the upbeat activity numbers from the U.S., China, and Europe, which rekindled economic recovery hopes and kept market trading sentiment positive. Moreover, the political uncertainty in the U.S. also weighs on the already weaker U.S. dollar, which adds further burden around the currency pair.

Despite the intensified Sino-US tussle and coronavirus (COVID-19) woes, the market trading sentiment managed to stop its previous negative performance and started to gain some positive traction during the early Asian session on the day perhaps due to the upbeat activity numbers from the U.S., China, and Europe, which rekindled economic recovery hopes. Moreover, the market trading sentiment got an additional lift from the positive developments surrounding the Brexit talks between the U.K. and the European Union (E.U.), which in turn, provided an instant boost to the market trading sentiment and undermined the safe-haven assets including the safe-haven U.S. dollar.

Despite the upbeat U.S. data, the broad-based U.S. dollar remained depressed as the investors continue to sell U.S. dollars on the back of the upbeat market sentiment. Moreover, the losses in the U.S. dollar could also be associated with political uncertainty in the U.S. ahead of U.S. elections. However, the losses in the U.S. dollar could be considered as the major factor that kept the currency pair under pressure. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a bucket of other currencies dropped to 93.977 to 93.705.


Technically, the USD/CHF pair has entered the overbought zone at the 0.9204 level and below this, the market has initiated the retracement/correction in the USD/CHF pair. Therefore, we have opened a sell trade below 0.9200 area to target quick 40 pips—checkout out a trading plan below. 

Entry Price – Sell 0.91809

Stop Loss – 0.92209

Take Profit – 0.91409

Risk to Reward – 1:1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.

iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368

Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

Categories
Forex Signals

EUR/USD Regression Channel Continues to Drive Selling – Update on Signal! 

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.16445 after placing a high of 1.17041 and a low of 1.16398. The EUR/USD pair extended its losses for the 5th consecutive day on Friday and remained bearish throughout the day. The main driver behind the steepest fall in Euro currency this week was the market concerns about the rising number of coronavirus infections in Europe and the effects of the social distancing measures to curb them. 

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.16445 after placing a high of 1.17041 and a low of 1.16398. The EUR/USD pair extended its losses for the 5th consecutive day on Friday and remained bearish throughout the day. The main driver behind the steepest fall in Euro currency this week was the market concerns about the rising number of coronavirus infections in Europe and the effects of the social distancing measures to curb them. 

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.16445 after placing a high of 1.17041 and a low of 1.16398. The EUR/USD pair extended its losses for the 5th consecutive day on Friday and remained bearish throughout the day. The main driver behind the steepest fall in Euro currency this week was the market concerns about the rising number of coronavirus infections in Europe and the effects of the social distancing measures to curb them. 

The latest lockdown restrictions introduced by France and Germany and the tighter restrictions applied in Italy and Spain raised alarms about their impact on the fragile economic recovery and weighed on the single currency Euro that ultimately added pressure on EUR/USD pair. 

Furthermore, the European Central Bank hinted to unleash new stimulus measures in December to counteract the pandemic’s negative impact and weighed on the Euro currency that added further losses in EUR/USD pair on Friday.

Meanwhile, on the data front, at 11:30 GMT, the French Consumer Spending for September was dropped to -5.1% against the expected -1.5% and weighed on Euro. The French Flash GDP for the quarter raised to 18.2% against the expected 15.0% and supported Euro. At 12:00 GMT, German Retail Sales for September dropped to -2.2% from the forecasted -0.6% and weighed on Euro. At 12:45 GMT, the French Prelim CPI for October fell to -0.1% against the forecasted 0.0% and weighed on Euro. At 13:00 GMT, the Spanish Flash GDP for the quarter surged to 16.7% after placing a high of 13.5% and supported Euro. 

The Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate declined to 9.6% from the forecasted 10.1% and weighed on Euro. At 14:00 GMT, German Prelim GDP for the quarter raised to 8.2% from the forecasted 7.3% and supported Euro. The Italian Prelim GDP for the quarter also raised to 16.1% from the forecasted 11.1% and supported Euro. At 14:58 GMT, the Italian Prelim CPI for October remained flat with the expectations of 0.2%.

Support Resistance

1.1798 1.1789

1.1672 1.1834

1.1626 1.1870

Pivot point: 1.1753


The EUR/USD traded with a bearish bias, having dropped below the support area of 1.1653. At the moment, the EUR/USD is likely to face the resistance at the same level of 1.1653. On the higher side, a bullish crossover of 1.1653 increases the odds of continuing an upward trend, and it may lead the EUR/USD price towards 1.1700. Further bullish crossover of this area can lead the pair towards the 1.1758 level. Conversely, a bearish crossover of 1.1653 support level has opened additional room for selling until the 1.1613 area as a double bottom support area extends the level.  

Entry Price – Buy 1.1646

Stop Loss – 1.1686

Take Profit – 1.1606

Risk to Reward – 1:1.25

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$500

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$50

Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.

iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368

Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

Categories
Forex Signals

USD/CAD Upward Channel to Support the pair – Brace for Buy Trade! 

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.33219 after placing a high of 1.33483 and a low of 1.32795. On Friday, the currency pair USD/CAD remained confined in a consolidated range throughout the day. The USD/CAD pair dropped in an earlier trading session on Friday amid the strong Canadian GDP and other economic data. However, the pair started falling in late session due to the declining crude oil prices on the day. Meanwhile, the US dollar was strong over the board ahead of the US Presidential elections and the strong macroeconomic data on the day.

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.33219 after placing a high of 1.33483 and a low of 1.32795. On Friday, the currency pair USD/CAD remained confined in a consolidated range throughout the day. The USD/CAD pair dropped in an earlier trading session on Friday amid the strong Canadian GDP and other economic data. However, the pair started falling in late session due to the declining crude oil prices on the day. Meanwhile, the US dollar was strong over the board ahead of the US Presidential elections and the strong macroeconomic data on the day.

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.33219 after placing a high of 1.33483 and a low of 1.32795. On Friday, the currency pair USD/CAD remained confined in a consolidated range throughout the day. The USD/CAD pair dropped in an earlier trading session on Friday amid the strong Canadian GDP and other economic data. However, the pair started falling in late session due to the declining crude oil prices on the day. Meanwhile, the US dollar was strong over the board ahead of the US Presidential elections and the strong macroeconomic data on the day.

On the data front, at 17:30 GMT, the Gross Domestic Product for August raised to 1.2% from the forecasted 0.9% and supported the Canadian dollar. The IPPI for September declined to -0.1% from the anticipated 0.1% and weighed on the Canadian dollar. The RMPI for September dropped to -2.2% from the forecasted 0.3% and weighed on the Canadian dollar.

The rise in Canadian dollar demand after the release of GDP started to lose its momentum on Friday after the investors realized that the economic growth in Canada would not persist for long as the coronavirus cases were spreading and hitting the economic growth recovery.

From the US side, at 17:30 GMT, the Core PCE Price Index for September came in line with the expectations of 0.2% from the US. Personal Spending from the US surged to 1.4% from the estimated 1.0% and supported the US dollar. The Employment Cost Index for the quarter remained the same at 0.5%. The Personal Income for September rose to 0.9% from the projected 0.3% and supported the US dollar. 

At 18:45 GMT, the Chicago PMI for October surged to 61.1 against the expected 58.2 and supported the US dollar. At 19:00 GMT, the Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment for October also advanced to 81.8 against the forecasted 81.2 and supported the US dollar. The Revised UoM Inflation Expectations for October came as 2.6% in comparison to September’s 2.7%.

Most of the macroeconomic figures from the US came in favor of the local currency that added strength in the USD/CAD pair on the day.

Furthermore, the gains were extended in the late session as the crude oil prices declined on Friday and remained low till $41.0 per day. The declining crude oil prices weighed on commodity-linked Loonie and forced the US dollar to move higher and push the USD/CAD pair. Another factor involved in the upward trend of the USD/CAD pair was the latest decision by the Federal Reserve on Friday to decrease the minimum limit of short-term and medium-term loans to $100,000 from the previous $250,000 to support the small & medium-sized businesses.


Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.3269 1.3385

1.3214 1.3446

1.3153 1.3501

Pivot point: 1.3330

The USD/CAD is trading with a selling bias falling from 1.3338 level to 1.3242 level, and it’s pretty much likely to drop further until the next support area of 1.3200 level. It’s the level that’s been extended by an upward trendline. The MACD histograms have also started forming below 0 supporting selling bias in the market. I will be looking to take a buy trade at this level of 1.3200 with a stop loss below the 1.3165 area and take profit level of 1.3340 mark. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, November 02 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Series of Manufacturing PMI Ahead! 

On the news front, eyes will remain on the Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI figures from the Eurozone, the U.K., and the United States. Almost all economic figures are expected to perform better than previous months, perhaps due to the lift of lockdown. Price action will depend upon any surprise changes in the PMI figures.

On the news front, eyes will remain on the Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI figures from the Eurozone, the U.K., and the United States. Almost all economic figures are expected to perform better than previous months, perhaps due to the lift of lockdown. Price action will depend upon any surprise changes in the PMI figures.

On the news front, eyes will remain on the Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI figures from the Eurozone, the U.K., and the United States. Almost all economic figures are expected to perform better than previous months, perhaps due to the lift of lockdown. Price action will depend upon any surprise changes in the PMI figures.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 


 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.16445 after placing a high of 1.17041 and a low of 1.16398. The EUR/USD pair extended its losses for the 5th consecutive day on Friday and remained bearish throughout the day.

The main driver behind the steepest fall in Euro currency this week was the market concerns about the rising number of coronavirus infections in Europe and the effects of the social distancing measures to curb them. 

The latest lockdown restrictions introduced by France and Germany and the tighter restrictions applied in Italy and Spain raised alarms about their impact on the fragile economic recovery and weighed on the single currency Euro that ultimately added pressure on EUR/USD pair. Furthermore, the European Central Bank hinted to unleash new stimulus measures in December to counteract the pandemic’s negative impact and weighed on the Euro currency that added further losses in EUR/USD pair on Friday.

Meanwhile, on the data front, at 11:30 GMT, the French Consumer Spending for September was dropped to -5.1% against the expected -1.5% and weighed on Euro. The French Flash GDP for the quarter raised to 18.2% against the expected 15.0% and supported Euro. At 12:00 GMT, German Retail Sales for September dropped to -2.2% from the forecasted -0.6% and weighed on Euro. At 12:45 GMT, the French Prelim CPI for October fell to -0.1% against the forecasted 0.0% and weighed on Euro.

At 13:00 GMT, the Spanish Flash GDP for the quarter surged to 16.7% after placing a high of 13.5% and supported Euro. The Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate declined to 9.6% from the forecasted 10.1% and weighed on Euro. At 14:00 GMT, German Prelim GDP for the quarter raised to 8.2% from the forecasted 7.3% and supported Euro. The Italian Prelim GDP for the quarter also raised to 16.1% from the forecasted 11.1% and supported Euro. At 14:58 GMT, the Italian Prelim CPI for October remained flat with the expectations of 0.2%.

At 15:00 GMT, the CPI Flash Estimate for the year remained flat at -0.3%. The Core CPI Flash Estimate for the year also came in line as expected, 0.2%. The Prelim Flash GDP for the quarter raised to 12.7% from the forecasted 9.5% and supported Euro. The Unemployment Rate from the whole bloc raised to 8.3% from the forecasted 8.2% and weighed on Euro.

After the release of economic data, the single currency Euro came under fresh pressure amid the rising fears of investors’ that strong quarterly economic growth in Germany, which raised to 8.2% in the third quarter, will be temporary as the virus spread in the region has picked up the pace. This added further pressure on EUR/USD pair on Friday.

From the U.S. side, at 17:30 GMT, the Core PCE Price Index for September came in line with the anticipations of 0.2%. The Personal Spending for September rose to 1.4% against the projected 1.0% and supported the U.S. dollar and added pressure on EUR/USD pair. The Employment Cost Index for the quarter came in line with the expectations of 0.5%. The Personal Income for September also surged to 0.9% from the estimated 0.3% and supported the U.S. dollar and add losses in EUR/USD pair.

 At 18:45 GMT, the Chicago PMI for October upraised to 61.1 against the predictable 58.2 and supported the U.S. dollar. At 19:00 GMT, the Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment for October also elevated to 81.8 against the estimated 81.2 and supported the U.S. dollar that supported the losses on EUR/USD pair on Friday. The Revised UoM Inflation Expectations for October were reported as 2.6% compared to September’s 2.7%.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.1798     1.1789

1.1672     1.1834

1.1626     1.1870

Pivot point: 1.1753

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD traded with a bearish bias, having dropped below the support area of 1.1653. At the moment, the EUR/USD is likely to face the resistance at the same level of 1.1653. On the higher side, a bullish crossover of 1.1653 increases the odds of continuing an upward trend, and it may lead the EUR/USD price towards 1.1700. Further bullish crossover of this area can lead the pair towards the 1.1758 level. Conversely, a bearish crossover of 1.1653 support level has opened additional room for selling until the 1.1613 area as a double bottom support area extends the level.  

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.29464 after placing a high of 1.29879 and a low of 1.28989. After placing losses for two consecutive days, the GBP/USD pair raised on Friday and posted gains. The GBP/USD pair rose on Friday despite the strength of the U.S. dollar, improved risk-averse market sentiment, and the rising number of coronavirus cases in Great Britain. The rising number of coronavirus cases in the U.K. showed that the imposed restrictions might be insufficient, and the country should follow the steps of Europe and France.

On the U.S. Presidential election front, the polls after the presidential debate showed that former vice president Joe Biden was leading over President Donald Trump. The chances for a blue wave in the U.S. gave pressure on local currency and supported the gains of the GBP/USD pair on Friday. On the data front, at 11:52 GMT, the Nationwide House Price Index for October raised to 0.8% from the forecasted 0.4% and supported British Pound that added further gains in GBP/USD pair.

From the U.S. side, at 17:30 GMT, the Core PCE Price Index for September came as anticipated by 0.2%. The Personal Spending for September surged to 1.4% against the anticipated 1.0% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Employment Cost Index for the quarter came as expected of 0.5%. The Personal Income for September also raised to 0.9% from the projected 0.3% and supported the U.S. dollar.

At 18:45 GMT, the Chicago PMI for October surged to 61.1 against the anticipated 58.2 and supported the U.S. dollar. At 19:00 GMT, the Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment for October also rose to 81.8 against the forecasted 81.2 and supported the U.S. dollar. The Revised UoM Inflation Expectations for October came as 2.6% in comparison to September’s 2.7%. Despite the better than expected macroeconomic figures from the U.S., the U.S. dollar remained lower ahead of upcoming elections and weighed on GBP/USD pair on Friday.

Furthermore, the Brexit developments also helped the GBP/USD pair to stay higher in such circumstances this week. The Chief EU Negotiator Michel Barnier extended his stay in London to discuss the Brexit deal with his U.K. counterpart. The fact that he has delayed his stay also gave some hope that progress has been made in Brexit proves and supported GBP/USD pair.

The reports also suggested that both sides have almost reached an agreement over the state aid issue, and the only sticking point in the UK-EU deal left was the fisheries. These Brexit developments in depressing circumstances supported the GBP/USD pair on Friday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.2909     1.3057

1.2839     1.3135

1.2762     1.3205

Pivot point: 1.2987

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading sharply bearish to trade over the double bottom support area of 1.2910 level. On the 2 hour timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has formed a downward channel, and bearish trend continuation can lead the pair further lower towards the next support area of 1.2830 level. However, to see that kind of selling, the Cable needs to violate the immediate support area of 1.2910. The MACD and 50 EMA support selling; therefore, we should look for a selling trade below the 1.2910 level today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 104.673 after placing a high of 104.740and a low of 104.123. The USD/JPY pair extended its previous daily gains and rose for the second consecutive session on Friday.

The U.S. dollar was moving back and forth on Friday within the previous ranges, however, was unable to find a significant recovery. The second round of lockdown in Europe and the cautious market mood ahead of the U.S. Presidential elections kept the pair higher as the risk-averse market sentiment was gaining traction.

On the macroeconomic front, at 04:30 GMT, the Tokyo Core CPI for the year remained flat at -0.5%. The Unemployment Rate from Japan declined to 3.0% in September from the forecasted 3.1% and supported the Japanese Yen. At 04:50 GMT, the Prelim Industrial Production for September also raised to 4.0% from the expected 3.0% and supported the Japanese Yen. At 10:00 GMT, the Housing Starts from Japan for September dropped to -9.9% from the forecasted -8.6% and weighed on the Japanese Yen and supported the upside momentum in the USD/JPY pair.

From the U.S. side, at 17:30 GMT, the Core PCE Price Index for September remained flat at 0.2%. The Personal Spending for September advanced to 1.4% from the expected 1.0% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Employment Cost Index for the quarter came in line with the expectations of 0.5%. The Personal Income for September raised to 0.9% from the forecasted 0.3% and supported the U.S. dollar.

 At 18:45 GMT, the Chicago PMI for October surged to 61.1 against the expectable 58.2 and supported the U.S. dollar. At 19:00 GMT, the Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment for October also advanced to 81.8 against the anticipated 81.2 and helped the U.S. dollar. The Revised UoM Inflation Expectations for October came as 2.6% in comparison to September’s 2.7%.

The stronger than expected data from the U.S. side also supported the USD/JPY pair’s upside movement on Friday. Meanwhile, the market mood was inclined towards the U.S. dollar demand in safe-haven as the growing number of infections in Europe forced the governments to impose lockdowns, which raised concerns over the global economic recovery when the economies were already struggling.

Furthermore, on Friday, the Federal Reserve declared that it will amend its main street lending program to support better small businesses that were still fighting the crisis of coronavirus pandemic. The central bank revealed that it would reduce the minimum amount that can be borrowed by the small & medium-sized businesses from $250,000 to $100,000. The Federal Reserve said that the change in the main-street lending program had been made to support pandemic-hit small companies. These announcements from the Fed weighed on the U.S. dollar and kept the gains in USD.JPY pair limited on Friday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

104.07     104.53

103.86     104.78

103.62     104.99

Pivot point: 104.32

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading slightly bullish at the 104.745 level, having crossed over the immediate resistance area of the 104.600 mark. On the 2 hour timeframe, the USD/JPY has violated the downward trendline at 104.550 level, and now the same level is likely to support the USD/JPY pair. The closing of candles over 104.650 level is supporting strong odds of bullish trend continuation until 105.049 level. Further bullish trend continuation can also lead the USD/JPY pair towards the 105.800 level, but, I’m afraid, traders will wait for the U.S. Elections and the U.S. NFP later this Friday. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

AUD/USD Fails to Stop Previous Week Sharp Losses – Quick Intraday Outlook! 

During Monday’s early Asian trading hours, the AUD/USD currency pair failed to stop its previous week’s bearish moves and took further offers near well below the 0.7000 level mainly due to prevalent risk-off market sentiment, triggered by the worsening coronavirus (COVID-19) conditions in Europe and the U.K., which exerted some selling pressure on the perceived riskier Aussie and dragged the currency pair below 0.7000 marks. However, the global risk sentiment was further pressured by the fading hopes of additional U.S. fiscal stimulus. 

During Monday’s early Asian trading hours, the AUD/USD currency pair failed to stop its previous week’s bearish moves and took further offers near well below the 0.7000 level mainly due to prevalent risk-off market sentiment, triggered by the worsening coronavirus (COVID-19) conditions in Europe and the U.K., which exerted some selling pressure on the perceived riskier Aussie and dragged the currency pair below 0.7000 marks. However, the global risk sentiment was further pressured by the fading hopes of additional U.S. fiscal stimulus. 

During Monday’s early Asian trading hours, the AUD/USD currency pair failed to stop its previous week’s bearish moves and took further offers near well below the 0.7000 level mainly due to prevalent risk-off market sentiment, triggered by the worsening coronavirus (COVID-19) conditions in Europe and the U.K., which exerted some selling pressure on the perceived riskier Aussie and dragged the currency pair below 0.7000 marks. However, the global risk sentiment was further pressured by the fading hopes of additional U.S. fiscal stimulus. 

On the other hand, the broad-based U.S. dollar fresh strength, backed by the combination of factors, has also contributed to the currency pair losses. At the moment, the AUD/USD currency pair is currently trading at 0.7094 and consolidating in the range between 0.7093 – 0.7172.

The market trading sentiment continues to be depressed during the early Asian trading session as the condition of the second wave of coronavirus infections in Europe and the U.K. getting worse time by time. As per the latest report, the global coronavirus cases exceeded 500,000 last week with Europe crossing the bleak milestone of 10 million total infections. 

This, in turn, the major Europeans like Germany and France, are ready to enter partial one-month lockdowns in efforts to stop a growing second wave of the pandemic. Whereas, the U.K. is facing more than 20,000 new cases per day while a record rise of U.S. cases is killing up to 1,000 people a day. 

Additionally, the long-lasting inability to pass the U.S. fiscal package as well as the jitters ahead of the American presidential election also weighed on the risk sentiment, which eventually undermined the perceived riskier Australian dollar and contributed to the currency pair gains. In the meantime, the renewed concerns over worsening diplomatic tensions between the world’s two largest economies also placed a downside pressure on the market trading, which keeps the AUD/USD currency pair under pressure. 

The greenback succeeded to extend its last week gains and took some further bids during Monday’s Asian session as investors still prefer the safe-haven assets in the wake of risk-off market sentiment. However, the U.S. dollar gains seem rather unaffected by the intensifying political uncertainty ahead of the upcoming U.S. presidential election on November 3. However, the ongoing disappointment ahead of the key U.S. elections where the Democratic victory is widely anticipated might cap further upside momentum for the U.S. dollar. 

The reason for the losses in the currency pair could also be associated with the increased odds of an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia in November. As per the latest report. The RBA is broadly expected to take down the benchmark interest rate to the record low of 0.10% from 0.25% currently. The reason could not only be the dovish comments from Governor Philip Lowe but downbeat minutes also favour the rate cut forecasts.

On the contrary, China’s official PMIs came in better than expected in October, which becomes the main factor that helps the currency pair to limit its deeper losses. At the data front, China’s official NBS Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs for October flashed better than 51.3 and 52.1 respective forecasts to 51.4 and 56.2 respective figures. Moreover, the losses in the currency pair were also capped by the reports suggesting that the coronavirus conditions in Australia have started to ease, and Queensland is soothing border conditions.


Daily Support and Resistance

S1 0.6916

S2 0.6977

S3 0.7003

Pivot Point 0.7038

R1 0.7064

R2 0.7098

R3 0.7159

The AUD/USD has disrupted the double bottom support mark of 0.7011, and beneath this, the AUD/USD is expected to trade with a bearish sentiment today. On the downside, the AUD/USD may meet critical support at the levels of 0.6997 and 0.6974. In contrast, the AUD/USD may extend to a shift on the higher side on violation of 0.7024 mark to begin the Aussie price towards 0.7054 mark. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Daily Topic Forex Price Action

How to Professionally Deal with Fake Breakouts!

In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of an H4 breakout at the weekly low. The price consolidates after the breakout and produces a bearish reversal candle right at the breakout level. It is a matter of time for the sellers to go short and drives the price towards the South. Let us find out what actually happens.

In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of an H4 breakout at the weekly low. The price consolidates after the breakout and produces a bearish reversal candle right at the breakout level. It is a matter of time for the sellers to go short and drives the price towards the South. Let us find out what actually happens.

In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of an H4 breakout at the weekly low. The price consolidates after the breakout and produces a bearish reversal candle right at the breakout level. It is a matter of time for the sellers to go short and drives the price towards the South. Let us find out what actually happens.

The chart shows that the price makes a good bearish move. It finds its support where the pair is traded for a while. The pair closes its week by producing a bearish candle. By looking at the chart, it looks that the sellers are going to keep their eyes on the chart next week.

The pair produces a bullish engulfing candle to start its trading week. The buyers on the minor charts may push the price towards the North. However, the H4 chart is still bearish biased.

The chart shows that the price may have found its resistance. The price has been in consolidation for a while. The last candle comes out as a bearish engulfing candle. The price may make its move towards the South now.

The chart produces consecutive bearish candles and makes a breakout at the last week’s low. The pair is traded below the breakout level for two more candles as well. The sellers are to wait for the price to consolidate and produce a bearish reversal candle followed by a breakout at the consolidation support to go short in the pair.

The chart produces a bullish engulfing candle closing within the breakout level. The next candle comes out as a bearish inside bar. The sellers would love to get a bearish engulfing candle closing below the bullish candle’s low. However, a breakout at the consolidation support would signal the sellers to go short in the pair. By drawing Fibonacci levels on the chart with Fibonacci extension, we see that the price finds its support at the level of 38.2% and finds its resistance at the level of 23.6%. In a word, the stage is getting ready for the Bear to make a move.

The chart produces a bullish candle. It is not a good sign, but the sellers still have hope. If the chart produces a bearish reversal candle again followed by a breakout at the level of 38.2%, the game is on for the sellers.

Now, the chart produces another bullish candle and heads towards the North. The sellers must be very disappointed since it seemed such a nice trade setup for them. The reality is it often happens to all traders. No point in being disappointed, but it must be dealt with professionalism.

Categories
Forex Signals

USD/CAD Choppy Session Continues – Brace for Breakout Signal! 

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.33195 after placing a high of 1.33896 and a low of 1.32777. On Thursday, the USD/CAD pair moved higher in the early trading session due to the rising demand for the U.S. dollar and declining crude oil prices on the day. However, the gains in USD/CAD failed to remain until the end of the day, and the pair lost all of its gains at the late trading session on Thursday and provided a flat movement for the session.

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.33195 after placing a high of 1.33896 and a low of 1.32777. On Thursday, the USD/CAD pair moved higher in the early trading session due to the rising demand for the U.S. dollar and declining crude oil prices on the day. However, the gains in USD/CAD failed to remain until the end of the day, and the pair lost all of its gains at the late trading session on Thursday and provided a flat movement for the session.

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.33195 after placing a high of 1.33896 and a low of 1.32777. On Thursday, the USD/CAD pair moved higher in the early trading session due to the rising demand for the U.S. dollar and declining crude oil prices on the day. However, the gains in USD/CAD failed to remain until the end of the day, and the pair lost all of its gains at the late trading session on Thursday and provided a flat movement for the session.

The USD/CAD pair closed its day at the same level it started its day with at 1.33195 on Thursday. The rise in the USD/CAD pair was due to the strength of the U.S. dollar onboard. The U.S. Dollar Index rose to 94 levels on Thursday to its highest level in a month and supported the upward momentum of the USD/CAD pair. The U.S. dollar was also strong as the House Speaker Nancy Pelosi killed the hopes that a U.S. stimulus package will be delivered after the U.S. elections. These uncertainties raised the risk sentiment and helped the risk perceived USD/CAD pair to rise on Thursday.

Furthermore, the heavy selling pressure surrounding the WTI crude oil prices provided a boost to USD/CAD prices in the early trading session. The concerns over the negative impact of the rising number of coronavirus cases globally have been causing an uneven recovery in energy demand. The increasing number of countries imposing restrictions raised concerns for energy demand and the WTI Crude oil prices suffered on Thursday and fell below the $35 level to $34.92 per barrel. The sharp decline in WTI crude oil prices weighed on commodity-linked Loonie and supported the upward momentum of the USD/CAD pair.

On the data front, from the U.S. side, at 17:30 GMT, the Advanced GDP for the quarter rose to 33.1% from the expected 32.0% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Unemployment Claims for the previous week declined to 751K from the estimated 773K and supported the U.S. dollar. At 17:32 GMT, the Advance GDP Price Index for the quarter rose to 3.6% from the projected 2.9% and supported the U.S. dollar. At 19:00 GMT, the Pending Home Sales for September fell to -2.2% from the anticipated 3.1% and weighed on the U.S. dollar.

The strong GDP and unemployment claim data from the US-supported US dollar and added strength to the USD/CAD pair on Thursday. While from the Canadian side, the Building Permits for September came in as 17.0% against August’s 1.4% and supported the Canadian dollar that kept the gains in the USD/CAD pair limited. The pair USD/CAD started losing all of its daily gains in late trading session as profit-taking started in the market. The USD/CAD pair rose to its one-month highest level but failed to remain there and dropped to give flat movement for Thursday.


Daily Technical levels

Support Resistance

1.3219 1.3377

1.3119 1.3435

1.3061 1.3535

Pivot point: 1.3277

The USD/CAD pair is trading choppy session within 1.3339 – 1.3300 as traders seem to wait for a solid reason to trigger a breakout. In any case, a bearish breakout of 1.3300 level can extend selling bias until 1.3240 level, and below this, the double bottom level is likely to provide next support at 1.3112. Conversely, the bullish breakout of 1.3340 level is likely to target the 1.3420 mark. The MACD and RSI are in support of bullish bias; however, the signal isn’t that strong yet. Let’s brace to trade the breakout pattern today. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, October 30 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Series of GDP Ahead! 

On the news front, the economic calendar is due to a report series of CPI and GDP figures from the European economy. These events are likely to be overshadowed by the U.S. Personal Pending, Chicago PMI, and Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, which are expected to slightly worse than beforehand. This may add further bearish bias for the U.S. dollar today.

On the news front, the economic calendar is due to a report series of CPI and GDP figures from the European economy. These events are likely to be overshadowed by the U.S. Personal Pending, Chicago PMI, and Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, which are expected to slightly worse than beforehand. This may add further bearish bias for the U.S. dollar today.

On the news front, the economic calendar is due to a report series of CPI and GDP figures from the European economy. These events are likely to be overshadowed by the U.S. Personal Pending, Chicago PMI, and Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, which are expected to slightly worse than beforehand. This may add further bearish bias for the U.S. dollar today.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

Economic Calendar by TradingView

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair’s prices were closed at 1.16742 after placing a high of 1.17587 and a low of 1.16500. The EUR/USD pair extended its previous daily losses and continued its bearish streak for the 4th consecutive session on Thursday. EUR/USD pair dropped to its more than one month lowest level on Thursday amid the broad-based U.S. dollar strength along with the rising number of lockdown restrictions in Europe.

The sharp decline in Euro against the U.S. dollar was derived by the European Central Bank’s decision on Thursday to hold its interest rates but gave signals that another monetary policy tool remains, and the bank would recalibrate its policy tools in December. As per the President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, it was necessary to cushion the European economy through pandemic and recalibrate its instruments at their next Governing Council meeting.

Lagarde refrained from expressing that the bank was looking at using all instruments rather than just topping up the 1.35 trillion euros PEPP at its upcoming Dec.10th meeting. Lagarde warned that the risks to the Eurozone recovery were tilted to the downside and suggested the pace to recovery or lack thereof would largely depend on the efforts of the economic bloc to contain the virus spread.

The growth of the Eurozone economy has come under pressure as the two biggest economies of the European Union, France, and Germany, have been forced to re-impose lockdown measures and raised the urgency to deliver more easing at the end of the year.

The Euro currency remained under pressure on Thursday after Lagarde’s comments and the central bank’s decision that ultimately added pressure on EUR/USD pair.

For October, the German Prelim CPI raised to 0.1% from the forecasted 0.0% and supported the single currency Euro on the data front. At 13:00 GMT, the Spanish Flash CPI for the year declined to -0.9% from the forecasted -0.4% and weighed on the single currency Euro that added pressure on EUR/USD pair. At 13:55 GMT, the German Unemployment Change for September came in as -35K against the forecasted -5K and supported the single currency Euro.

At 17:30 GMT, the Advanced GDP for the quarter raised to 33.1% from the estimated 32.0% and supported the U.S. dollar from the U.S. side. The Unemployment Claims for the previous week slipped to 751K from the anticipated 773K and supported the U.S. dollar. At 17:32 GMT, the Advance GDP Price Index for the quarter surged to 3.6% from the projected 2.9% and supported the U.S. dollar. At 19:00 GMT, the Pending Home Sales for September dropped to -2.2% from the projected 3.1% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. Most of the US-supported data weighed on EUR/USD pair towards the downside and added in the losses of the currency pair on Thursday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.1798 1.1789

1.1672 1.1834

1.1626 1.1870

Pivot point: 1.1753

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD traded with a bearish bias, having dropped to the support area of 1.1653. Above this, the pair has strong odds of taking a bullish turn until the 1.1700 area. Continuation of an upward trend may lead the EUR/USD price towards 1.1758, and bullish crossover of this area can lead the pair towards the 1.1820 level. Conversely, a bearish crossover of 1.1653 support level can extend selling until the 1.1613 area as a double bottom support area extends the level.  

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.29126 after placing a high of 1.30255 and a low of 1.28806. The GBP/USD pair extended its previous daily losses and remained bearish on Thursday. The GBP/USD pair moved to its lowest level in almost 2-weeks and then recovered some of its losses in the late trading session on Thursday. The strength of the U.S. dollar drove the decline in the GBP/USD pair.

The U.S. dollar was strong due to the emerging risk-averse market sentiment and the strong macroeconomic data for the day. The delayed U.S. stimulus measure also helped the U.S. dollar to remain strong in the market. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) climbed above 94.00 level, its highest in almost a month, on Thursday as the risk-averse market sentiment emerged. The strong U.S. dollar added pressure on GBP.USD pair and dragged them to its 10-days lowest level.

On the data front, at 14:30 GMT, the M4 Money Supply for September raised 0.9% from the forecasted 0.3% and supported British Pound. At 14:32 GMT, the Mortgage Approvals raised to 91K from the forecasted 76K and supported British Pound. The Net Lending to Individuals came in line with the expectations of 4.2B. Britain’s data supported the local currency Sterling that capped further losses in the GBP/USD pair on Thursday.

From the U.S. side, at 17:30 GMT, the Advanced GDP for the quarter surged to 33.1% from the projected 32.0% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Unemployment Claims for the previous week fell to 751K from the estimated 773K and supported the U.S. dollar. At 17:32 GMT, the Advance GDP Price Index for the quarter advanced to 3.6% from the anticipated 2.9% and supported the U.S. dollar. At 19:00 GMT, the Pending Home Sales for September fell to -2.2% from the expected 3.1% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The better than expected data from the U.S. supported the local currency U.S. dollar that added pressure on the declining GBP/USD pair’s prices.

On the Brexit front, the negotiations between the E.U. and U.K. were in progress with no headlines for the time being. However, the hopes were high that a deal could be reached this time as both sides were eager to solve the impasse given the limited time left for the end of the transition period. If a deal is reached, then British Pound will see a sharp rise in prices; however, analysts believe that a Brexit deal would likely offer only temporary relief for British Pound. They believe that Sterling’s near-term outlook will continue to be dominated by the late-stage Brexit negotiations that would include the significant trade frictions, the threat of tariffs and quotas.

It means that a Brexit deal between the E.U. and U.K. would not remove all the risks for British Pound and that sterling will still have to face further difficulties even after an agreement is reached.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.2909 1.3057

1.2839 1.3135

1.2762 1.3205

Pivot point: 1.2987

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading sharply bearish since the violation of the symmetric triangle pattern at the 1.3017 level, and the formation of bearish candles below the 1.3017 level has driven strong selling until the 1.2913 support area. For the moment, the Cable my lead GBP/USD price towards 1.3046 level for the sake of bullish correction. Conversely, the GBP/USD pair may find immediate support at 1.2913, and a bearish breakout of this level can be captured until the 1.2840 level.  

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 104.593 after placing a high of 104.725 and a low of 104.023. The USD/JPY pair rose on Thursday and posted gains after falling for two consecutive sessions on the back of the strong U.S. dollar and the better than expected macroeconomic data from the U.S., along with the disappointing data from Japan.

At 04:50 GMT, the Retail Sales from Japan for September dropped to -8.7% from the forecasted -7.5% and weighed on the Japanese Yen that added strength to the USD/JPY pair. At 10:00 GMT, the Consumer Confidence for October in Japan declined to 33.6 from the forecasted 35.2 and weighed on the Japanese Yen that supported the USD/JPY pair’s bullish move.

From the U.S. side, at 17:30 GMT, the Advanced GDP for the quarter advanced to 33.1% from the estimated 32.0% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Unemployment Claims for the previous week slipped to 751K from the anticipated 773K and supported the U.S. dollar. At 17:32 GMT, the Advance GDP Price Index for the quarter raised to 3.6% from the estimated 2.9% and supported the U.S. dollar. At 19:00 GMT, the Pending Home Sales for September declined to -2.2% from the projected 3.1% and weighed on the U.S. dollar.

The better than expected data from the U.S. gave strength to the U.S. dollar that ultimately added further gains to the USD/JPY pair on Thursday. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar was also strong due to the comments from the Head of Congress and White House that signaled a tough road ahead for a coronavirus stimulus even after the next week’s U.S. election.

The U.S. Congress delivered a Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) stimulus worth about $3 trillion. Since then, the Democrats and the Republicans have been locked in a stalemate on a successive package to CARES. The differences have been over the size of the next relief bill among both parties. Over the last two weeks, the hopes that a coronavirus relief package will be delivered before elections faded away despite the months of negotiations between Democrats & Republicans. The investors thought that a deal might be reached after the election, regardless of the winner.

However, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, revealed on Thursday that these hopes that a package will be delivered after the elections without any difficulty were not right as Republicans were yet to answer her on funding for several critical areas. The uncertainty and lack of hopes that a stimulus will be delivered even after elections raised the U.S. dollar and added further gains in the USD/JPY pair on Thursday. However, the USD/JPY currency pair’s gains were limited due to the emerging risk-averse market sentiment in the market on Thursday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

104.07 104.53

103.86 104.78

103.62 104.99

Pivot point: 104.32

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The bearish bias in the USD/JPY continues to extend the bearish bias; however, it’s trading within a choppy trading range now. The choppy range may provide resistance at 104.505 to 104.200 area. Violation of this range can trigger further selling until the 103.900 level. The MACD and RSI support selling bias today; therefore, we will be looking to enter a selling trade below 104.24 today. A violation of this level has high odds of leading the USD/JPY pair further lower towards the 103.900 level. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

USD/JPY Takes Dip Amid Downward Channel – Brace for Selling! 

During the Europen session, the USD/JPY continues trading lower amid a downward channel at 102.298 level. The USD/JPY pair moved in a bearish direction and posted big losses on Tuesday. The USD/JPY pair was down on Tuesday amid the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness along with the rising risk-averse market sentiment on the back of fresh tensions between the U.S. and China. The safe-haven appeal was also supported by the rising number of coronavirus cases and lockdowns that drove the stock market on the downside and weighed on the USD/JPY pair as well.

During the Europen session, the USD/JPY continues trading lower amid a downward channel at 102.298 level. The USD/JPY pair moved in a bearish direction and posted big losses on Tuesday. The USD/JPY pair was down on Tuesday amid the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness along with the rising risk-averse market sentiment on the back of fresh tensions between the U.S. and China. The safe-haven appeal was also supported by the rising number of coronavirus cases and lockdowns that drove the stock market on the downside and weighed on the USD/JPY pair as well.

During the Europen session, the USD/JPY continues trading lower amid a downward channel at 102.298 level. The USD/JPY pair moved in a bearish direction and posted big losses on Tuesday. The USD/JPY pair was down on Tuesday amid the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness along with the rising risk-averse market sentiment on the back of fresh tensions between the U.S. and China. The safe-haven appeal was also supported by the rising number of coronavirus cases and lockdowns that drove the stock market on the downside and weighed on the USD/JPY pair as well.

The U.S. Dollar Index that measures the value of the greenback against the basket of six currencies dropped by 0.3% to 92.8 level on Tuesday that weighed on the U.S. dollar and dragged the USD/JPY pair prices.

On the coronavirus front, the United States, Russia, France, Italy, Netherland, Spain, and many other nations across the globe set a new record for the number of daily coronavirus cases. The U.S. reported more than 74,300 new cases in a single day, France reported more than 52,000 daily cases over the weekend. The global record for the infections was recorded as 43.4 million on Tuesday by the Johns Hopkins University.

The rising number of coronavirus cases urged governments to re-impose lockdown measures to curb the virus’s spread. These lockdowns in a situation where economies were still under recovery phase from the previous lockdown effects raised a high appeal for the safe-haven market sentiment in the market. The risk-averse sentiment supported the safe-haven Japanese Yen that ultimately weighed on the USD/JPY pair on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, on the data front, at 09:59 GMT, the BOJ Core CPI for the year dropped to -0.1% from the forecasted 0.0% and weighed on the Japanese Yen that failed to reverse the negative movement of the USD/JPY pair. At 18:00 GMT, August’s Housing Price Index rose to 1.5% from the anticipated 0.7% and supported the U.S. dollar. The S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI for the year also advanced to 5.2% from the projected 4.2% and supported the U.S. dollar. At 18:59 GMT, the Richmond Manufacturing Index for October raised to 29 against the expected 18 and supported the U.S. dollar but failed to impress investors; thus, the USD/JPY pair continued moving in the downward momentum on Tuesday.

However, at 19:00 GMT, the C.B. Consumer Confidence for October was dropped to 100.9 from the anticipated 102.1 and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added further pressure on the USD/JPY pair. The U.S. dollar failed to cheer the positive macroeconomic data on Tuesday because of the stalled talks for the next round of the U.S. stimulus package. The stalemate between the White House and the House of Representative Speaker Nancy Pelosi over the U.S. stimulus aid package’s size led to delayed talks till November 3rd election results and weighed on the U.S. dollar.

The USD/JPY continues to extend its bearish momentum as the pair trades at the 104.298 level. On the 4 hour timeframe, the USD/JPY has formed a downward channel that’s driving bearish movement in the market, and it may support the pair around 104.300 and 104.007 area. Conversely, the continuation of an upward movement is likely to drive the buying trend until the 104.778 level. Check out the sell setup below…


Categories
Forex Signals

USD/CAD Continues Trading Bullish – Upward Channel In Play! 

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.31832 after placing a high of 1.32119 and a low of 1.31420. The USD/CAD pair reversed its previous day move and fell on Tuesday to post losses. The USD/CAD pair dropped on Tuesday amid the broad-based US dollar weakness and the rising crude oil prices. However, the USD/CAD pair’s losses were recovered in the late American session after the release of American macroeconomic data and ahead of the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision.

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.31832 after placing a high of 1.32119 and a low of 1.31420. The USD/CAD pair reversed its previous day move and fell on Tuesday to post losses. The USD/CAD pair dropped on Tuesday amid the broad-based US dollar weakness and the rising crude oil prices. However, the USD/CAD pair’s losses were recovered in the late American session after the release of American macroeconomic data and ahead of the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision.

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.31832 after placing a high of 1.32119 and a low of 1.31420. The USD/CAD pair reversed its previous day move and fell on Tuesday to post losses. The USD/CAD pair dropped on Tuesday amid the broad-based US dollar weakness and the rising crude oil prices. However, the USD/CAD pair’s losses were recovered in the late American session after the release of American macroeconomic data and ahead of the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision.

The USD/CAD pair failed to capitalize on the previous session’s strong positive move of around 100 pipis and started moving in the downward direction as the US dollar was weak across the board. The US Dollar Index fell to 92.8 level by 0.3% on Tuesday and weighed on the greenback that ultimately exerted pressure on the USD/CAD pair.

The US dollar was also weak because of the US political environment where chances of a blue wave in the upcoming US Presidential elections that will be held on November 3rd, were increasing as the national polls suggested.

Meanwhile, the US also reported 74,300 new coronavirus cases in a single day that also raised bars for fresh lockdowns. These depressing situations kept weighing on the US dollar that was already under pressure due to the stalled talks over the next round of the US stimulus package. As the coronavirus cases were increasing day by day and the governments were forced to impose restrictions again, economic recovery concerns raised even more as the government funding had dried up, and the talks for further measures have stalled till elections. These concerns kept the market sentiment under pressure, and the USD/CAD pair suffered due to it.

However, on the data front, at 18:00 GMT, the Housing Price Index for August from the US was raised to 1.5% from the expected 0.7% and supported the US dollar. The S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI for the year also advanced to 5.2% from the projected 4.2% and supported the US dollar. At 18:59 GMT, the Richmond Manufacturing Index for October surged to 29 against the expected 18 and supported the US dollar that recovered its earlier losses in the USD/CAD pair.

However, at 19:00 GMT, the CB Consumer Confidence for October was dropped to 100.9 from the projected 102.1 and weighed on the US dollar that added further pressure on the USD/CAD pair. The USD/CAD pair reversed its movement after the US economic data release amid the US dollar started to pick its demand as durable goods orders had recovered to their pre-pandemic levels, which was an encouraging sign.

Meanwhile, the WTI crude oil prices raised above the $39 level on Tuesday and gave strength to commodity-linked Loonie that ultimately added pressure on the USD/CAD prices and added further in the losses of pair on the day. Investors will keep a close eye on the Bank of Canada on Wednesday when the central bank will hold its monetary policy meeting. The interest rates are currently at the 0.25% level slashed in March and have not been changed until then. The rate statement could impact USD/CAD prices tomorrow as investors will be interested in the view of BoC related to the health of the economy. 


Entry Price – Buy 1.31941

Stop Loss – 1.31541

Take Profit – 1.32441

Risk to Reward – 1:1.25

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$500

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$50

Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.

iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368

Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

Categories
Forex Price Action

Weekly High/Low Breakout Trading: Importance of Candles’ Body before Making a Breakout

In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of an H4 chart that seems promising to make a breakout at the last week’s low. It produces a strong bearish candle as well at last, but the price does not head towards the South. We try to find out the possible reason behind that. […]

In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of an H4 chart that seems promising to make a breakout at the last week’s low. It produces a strong bearish candle as well at last, but the price does not head towards the South. We try to find out the possible reason behind that. […]

In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of an H4 chart that seems promising to make a breakout at the last week’s low. It produces a strong bearish candle as well at last, but the price does not head towards the South. We try to find out the possible reason behind that.

It is an H4 chart. The chart shows that the price heads towards the South with good bearish momentum. The price bounces twice at a level of support. The pair closes its trading week by producing a bearish candle.

The pair starts its next week by producing a bullish engulfing candle. It means the breakout length gets bigger, which attracts the sellers more. The sellers are to wait for the price to make a bearish reversal candle followed by a breakout at the weekly low.

The price finds its resistance and produces two consecutive bearish candles. The sellers are to keep their eyes on the chart closely. It seems that the Bear is going to make a breakout soon. Let us proceed to the next chart to see what happens next.

The chart continues to produce bearish candles. However, it has not made a breakout at the weekly low yet. The last candle comes out as a spinning top closing within the weekly low.

The chart produces a spinning top followed by a bullish engulfing candle. The price then consolidates within the last week’s low and a new resistance. The last candle comes out as a bearish engulfing candle closing just below the weekly low. The question is whether it should be considered as a breakout. It is a breakout, but the H4 traders should skip taking entry on this chart based on a weekly high/low breakout. The reason behind that is the chart takes too long to make the breakout. Once the price starts trending, it must make a breakout without producing any reversal candle. It means if the chart produced the last candle right after the first spinning top; it would be a hunting ground for the sellers. Since it produces four bullish reversal candles before making the breakout, the chart does not belong to the H4 traders based on the weekly low anymore. We must not forget that it must consolidate after a breakout, though. It means it must produce bullish reversal candle/candles in case of a bearish breakout, but it must make a breakout only by producing bearish candles and vice versa.

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, October 28 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Bank of Canada Policy! 

On the news front, the Bank of Canada Overnight Rate rate and Rate Statement will be in focus, and it may drive some price action in Canadian pairs. Elsewhere, we don’t have any major event that can drive sharp movements in the U.S. dollar related pairs. Let’s focus on technical levels.

On the news front, the Bank of Canada Overnight Rate rate and Rate Statement will be in focus, and it may drive some price action in Canadian pairs. Elsewhere, we don’t have any major event that can drive sharp movements in the U.S. dollar related pairs. Let’s focus on technical levels.

On the news front, the Bank of Canada Overnight Rate rate and Rate Statement will be in focus, and it may drive some price action in Canadian pairs. Elsewhere, we don’t have any major event that can drive sharp movements in the U.S. dollar related pairs. Let’s focus on technical levels.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD closed at 1.17872 after placing a high of 1.18385 and a low of 1.17821. The EUR/USD pair moved lower and posted losses on Tuesday to extend the previous bearish trend. The EUR/USD pair extended its losses on Tuesday and fell for 2nd consecutive day despite the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness. The decline in the EUR/USD pair was due to the rising number of coronavirus cases and the increased numbers of lockdown in European nations to curb the COVID-19 crisis’s effects.

The EUR/USD pair moved in upward momentum during the first half of Tuesday and recovered most of its previous daily losses on the back of broad-based U.S. dollar weakness. The U.S. Dollar Index was down to 92.8 level by 0.3% on Tuesday as the uncertainty over the next round of U.S. stimulus package and the upcoming U.S. Presidential election weighed on the greenback.

The risk-averse market sentiment emerged in the market due to an increased number of coronavirus cases worldwide, especially in the European nations. The United States reported more than 74,300 new coronavirus cases on Monday that pushed the country’s daily average over the past week above 71,000. Meanwhile, in Europe, France prepared for a fresh lockdown as new daily confirmed coronavirus cases hit the highest ever at above 52,000 on a single day.

Italy and the Netherlands also reported a new record high of cases over the weekend. Spain declared a national emergency and imposed a night-time curfew for six months. All these reports from across the globe weighed on risk sentiment and dragged the riskier asset like EUR/USD pair on the downside. Meanwhile, the risk sentiment was further affected by the latest news from one of the vaccine developers, Pfizer, that said that getting early results by October for coronavirus vaccine shots would be nearly impossible. These comments added further to the downside momentum of EUR.USD pair on Tuesday.

On the data front, at 13:00 GMT, the Spanish Unemployment Rate for September raised to 16.3% against the forecasted 16.0% and weighed on the single currency Euro that added further to the losses of EUR/USD pair. At 14:00 GMT, the M3 Money Supply for the year was advanced to 10.4% from the forecasted 9.6% and supported Euro currency. The Private Loans for the year from Eurozone remained flat at 3.1%.

At 18:00 GMT, August’s Housing Price Index raised to 1.5% from the projected 0.7% and supported the U.S. dollar. The S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI for the year also elevated to 5.2% from the projected 4.2% and supported the U.S. dollar. At 18:59 GMT, the Richmond Manufacturing Index for October surged to 29 from the anticipated 18 and supported the U.S. dollar added in the additional losses in EUR/USD pair on Tuesday.

However, at 19:00 GMT, the C.B. Consumer Confidence for October dropped to 100.9 from the projected 102.1 and weighed on the U.S. dollar that capped further losses in EUR/USD prices on Tuesday. Furthermore, the risk sentiment was deteriorated by the latest tensions between the U.S. & China over the potential sales of American made missiles to Taiwan. This raised the market’s safe-haven appeal and weighed on the riskier EUR/USD pair for the day.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.1787     1.1845

1.1766     1.1882

1.1729     1.1904

Pivot point: 1.1824

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD traded with a bearish bias, falling from the 1.1800 level to test the support area of the 1.1770 mark. Violation of the 1.1770 level can drive further selling until the 1.1733 support level, which is extended by an upward trendline. However, the MACD and RSI are supporting selling bias; therefore, the EUR/USD may exhibit a selling trend below an intraday pivot point level of 1.1824 level. Buying can be seen over the 1.1700 level today. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.30414 after placing a high of 1.30793 and a low of 1.30007. The GBP/USD pair reversed on Tuesday and started moving in a bullish track. The GBP/USD pair rose and broke it’s 4 days bearish streak on Tuesday amid the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness and the rising optimism surrounding the Brexit process. The U.S. dollar was weak across the board amid the fallen U.S. yields and rising concerns over the U.S. stimulus package and upcoming U.S. election.

The U.S. dollar also failed to cheer the positive macroeconomic figures from the economic docket on Tuesday as investors’ focus shifted towards other developments. The Wall Street stocks were mixed during the day as the resurgence in COVID-19 cases was creating concerns among the market participants. The market’s risk sentiment was also affected by the latest dispute between the U.S. & China, along with the increased number of coronavirus cases and the slowdown of economies throughout the globe. The deteriorated risk sentiment weighed heavily on the risk perceived British Pound and GBP/USD pair gains remained limited for the day.

The British investors were more focused on the Brexit process’s optimism as the Chief EU negotiator Michel Barnier extended his stay in London for ongoing talks. This raised the hopes that both parties will soon reach a consensus over the Brexit-deal key points as the negotiations were extended. The silence around the talks matter was seen as a positive sign between the investors, and they started buying British Pound against the U.S. dollar.

Meanwhile, the PM Boris Johnson has also said that he was not waiting for the U.S. elections to deal with the E.U. He added that resolving the issues of state aid and fisheries was more critical at the time, and the markets started moving on the positive side for British Pound as U.K. was eager to strike a deal with the E.U.

On the data front, at 16:00 GMT, the CBI Realized Sales for October came in as -23 against the expectations of -1 and weighed on British Pound and capped further gains in GBP/USD pair. At 18:00 GMT, the Housing Price Index for August surged to 1.5% from the expectations of 0.7% and supported the U.S. dollar. The S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI for the year also surged to 5.2% from the forecasted 4.2% and helped the U.S. dollar. At 18:59 GMT, the Richmond Manufacturing Index for October raised to 29 against the expectations of 18 and supported the U.S. dollar that limited further gains in GBP/USD prices.

However, at 19:00 GMT, the C.B. Consumer Confidence for October fell to 100.9 from the expected 102.1 and weighed on the U.S. dollar that pushed the GBP/USD pair further on the upside. As for the U.S. Presidential elections, the uncertainty surrounding the question that who will win the election kept the U.S. dollar weak across the board on Tuesday. Some polls were suggesting a blue wave while others were in favor of re-electing president Donald Trump. Along with the stalled talks for the next round of the U.S. stimulus package before November 3, these uncertainties weighed on the U.S. dollar and supported the GBP/USD pair’s gains on Tuesday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.2985     1.3067

1.2947     1.3113

1.2902     1.3150

Pivot point: 1.3030

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading sideways, holding within a symmetric triangle pattern extending neutral with a narrow trading range of 1.3071 – 1.3007 level. Violation of 1.3007 level can open additional room for selling until the 1.2965 area, which extends support due to an upward trendline on the 4-hour timeframe. The MACD and RSI are in support of selling bias today. Consider opening sell trades below the 1.3075 level today. On the other hand, the violation of 1.3071 can drive upward movement until the 1.3165 level today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 104.475 after placing a high of 104.888 and a low of 104.386. The USD/JPY pair moved in a bearish direction and posted big losses on Tuesday. The USD/JPY pair was down on Tuesday amid the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness along with the rising risk-averse market sentiment on the back of fresh tensions between the U.S. and China. The safe-haven appeal was also supported by the rising number of coronavirus cases and lockdowns that drove the stock market on the downside and weighed on the USD/JPY pair as well.

The U.S. Dollar Index that measures the value of the greenback against the basket of six currencies dropped by 0.3% to 92.8 level on Tuesday that weighed on the U.S. dollar and dragged the USD/JPY pair prices.

On the coronavirus front, the United States, Russia, France, Italy, Netherland, Spain, and many other nations across the globe set a new record for the number of daily coronavirus cases. The U.S. reported more than 74,300 new cases in a single day, France reported more than 52,000 daily cases over the weekend. The global record for the infections was recorded as 43.4 million on Tuesday by the Johns Hopkins University.

The rising number of coronavirus cases also urged governments to re-impose lockdown measures to curb the virus’s spread. These lockdowns in a situation where economies were still under recovery phase from the previous lockdown effects raised a high appeal for the safe-haven market sentiment in the market. The risk-averse sentiment supported the safe-haven Japanese Yen that ultimately weighed on the USD/JPY pair on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, on the data front, at 09:59 GMT, the BOJ Core CPI for the year dropped to -0.1% from the forecasted 0.0% and weighed on the Japanese Yen that failed to reverse the negative movement of the USD/JPY pair. At 18:00 GMT, August’s Housing Price Index rose to 1.5% from the anticipated 0.7% and supported the U.S. dollar. The S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI for the year also advanced to 5.2% from the projected 4.2% and supported the U.S. dollar. At 18:59 GMT, the Richmond Manufacturing Index for October raised to 29 against the expected 18 and supported the U.S. dollar but failed to impress investors; thus, the USD/JPY pair continued moving in the downward momentum on Tuesday.

However, at 19:00 GMT, the C.B. Consumer Confidence for October was dropped to 100.9 from the anticipated 102.1 and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added further pressure on the USD/JPY pair. The U.S. dollar failed to cheer the positive macroeconomic data on Tuesday because of the stalled talks for the next round of the U.S. stimulus package. The stalemate between the White House and the House of Representative Speaker Nancy Pelosi over the U.S. stimulus aid package’s size led to delayed talks till November 3rd election results and weighed on the U.S. dollar.

Furthermore, the Biden victory bets were started to weigh on the U.S. dollar as the polls suggested a blue wave in the upcoming Presidential elections. The weak U.S. dollar on Tuesday caused the USD/JPY pair to move on the downside. Moreover, the U.S. and China tensions came on-board after a long pause on Tuesday when news suggested a potential $2.4 billion sale of U.S. anti-ship missiles to Taiwan. In response to this news, China slapped sanctions on U.S. companies over national security interests. These fresh tensions between the U.S. and China raised safe-haven appeal and supported the safe-haven Japanese Yen that ultimately added weight on the USD/JPY pair on Tuesday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

104.18     105.35

103.68     106.00

103.02     106.51

Pivot point: 104.84

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY continues to extend its bearish momentum as the pair trades at the 104.298 level. On the 4 hour timeframe, the USD/JPY has formed a downward channel that’s driving bearish movement in the market, and it may support the pair around 104.300 and 104.007 area. Conversely, the continuation of an upward movement is likely to drive the buying trend until the 104.778 level. The MACD and RSI are supporting selling bias today; therefore, we will be looking to enter a selling trade below 104.84 today. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

AUD/USD Breaking Below Upward Channel – Is there a Sell Trade?

The AUD/USD pair was closed at 0.71185 after placing a high of 0.71461 and a low of 0.71025. The AUD/USD pair fell on Monday and gave a bearish candle for the day. The AUD/USD pair struggled to find a direction throughout Monday however it pared to its losses amid the broad-based US dollar strength in late American hours. The risk-averse market sentiment after the rising number of coronavirus cases across the globe and the deadlock over the US stimulus package caused a surge in the greenback due to its safe-haven status.

The AUD/USD pair was closed at 0.71185 after placing a high of 0.71461 and a low of 0.71025. The AUD/USD pair fell on Monday and gave a bearish candle for the day. The AUD/USD pair struggled to find a direction throughout Monday however it pared to its losses amid the broad-based US dollar strength in late American hours. The risk-averse market sentiment after the rising number of coronavirus cases across the globe and the deadlock over the US stimulus package caused a surge in the greenback due to its safe-haven status.

The AUD/USD pair was closed at 0.71185 after placing a high of 0.71461 and a low of 0.71025. The AUD/USD pair fell on Monday and gave a bearish candle for the day. The AUD/USD pair struggled to find a direction throughout Monday however it pared to its losses amid the broad-based US dollar strength in late American hours. The risk-averse market sentiment after the rising number of coronavirus cases across the globe and the deadlock over the US stimulus package caused a surge in the greenback due to its safe-haven status.

The US Dollar Index was up by 0.30% to above 93 levels on Monday that ultimately weighed on AUD/USD pair. The US dollar was gaining on the back of increasing cases of coronavirus from Europe and other nations. Europe was hit hardest by the second wave of coronavirus as most European nations started re-imposing restrictions to curb the effects of the coronavirus crisis.

France reported more than 50,000 cases in a single day over the weekend and introduced a nationwide curfew. Spain also introduces a curfew for six months on Monday along with Italy. The rising number of countries introducing restrictive measures to control the damage of coronavirus raised questions on the economic recovery as the economies were still struggling through the previous effects of lockdowns.

These rising uncertainties increased the appeal for safe-haven that ultimately diminished the risk sentiment in the market and weighed on riskier Aussie that dragged the AUD/USD pair on the downside. On the data front, at 19:00 GMT, the US economic docket released the New Home Sales that dropped to 959K from the expected 1025K and weighed on US dollar that capped further losses in AUD/USD pair on Monday.

The Australian Dollar was also under pressure because of the last week’s latest decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut its cash rate to 0.1%, the lowest in history. The bank decided to cut its interest rates to the lowest level as the country was struggling to fight the coronavirus crisis impact on its economy. The strength of Aussie and the local economic downturn after Victoria’s lockdown pushed RBA to cut its cash rates to 0.1%.

As the Australian Dollar was already under pressure, the strength of the US dollar along with the dampened risk sentiment in the market weighed on AUD.USD pair on Monday and dragged its prices below 0.72000 level.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

0.7118 0.7145

0.7103 0.7157

0.7091 0.7171

Pivot point: 0.7130

The AUD/USD is trading with a selling bias at the 0.7120 level, facing an immediate resistance around the 0.7149 area. Below 0.7149, we may see AUD/USD pair to drop until the next support area of 0.7105 as the MACD and EMA are in support of selling. Checkout a trading plan below… 

Entry Price – Sell 0.71293

Stop Loss – 0.71693

Take Profit – 0.70893

Risk to Reward – 1:1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.

iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368

Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, October 27 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – C.B. Consumer Confidence in Play! 

On the news side, the eyes will remain on the economic events coming out of the U.S. economy. The Core Durable Goods Orders m/m and Durable Goods Orders m/m are expected to report mixed data that may or may not drive price action in dollar related events. While the C.B. Consumer Confidence will be the major highlight of the day, economists expect a slight movement on consumer confidence from 101.8 to 102.1 that may underpin the U.S. dollar today. 

On the news side, the eyes will remain on the economic events coming out of the U.S. economy. The Core Durable Goods Orders m/m and Durable Goods Orders m/m are expected to report mixed data that may or may not drive price action in dollar related events. While the C.B. Consumer Confidence will be the major highlight of the day, economists expect a slight movement on consumer confidence from 101.8 to 102.1 that may underpin the U.S. dollar today. 

On the news side, the eyes will remain on the economic events coming out of the U.S. economy. The Core Durable Goods Orders m/m and Durable Goods Orders m/m are expected to report mixed data that may or may not drive price action in dollar related events. While the C.B. Consumer Confidence will be the major highlight of the day, economists expect a slight movement on consumer confidence from 101.8 to 102.1 that may underpin the U.S. dollar today. 

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 


 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.18-93 after placing a high of 1.18596 and a low of 1.18031. The EUR/USD pair moved in a bearish trend on Monday and lost most of its previous day gains. The EUR/USD pair fell on Monday amid the strong U.S. dollar and the rising number of coronavirus infections through Europe. The market turned risk-averse and weighed on the riskier EUR/USD pair that reversed its movement on Monday.

The rising number of coronavirus cases in Europe kept the shared currency under bearish pressure at the starting day of the week. Spain declared a state of emergency on Sunday for six-months and imposed a national curfew to control the spread of coronavirus. France has already placed a curfew, and it reported more than 50,000 new infections in a single day. On Monday, Italy also announced a national curfew to curb the coronavirus spread. Germany will reportedly introduce more restrictions later in the week.

On Monday, as the coronavirus situation was out of control in Europe, Germany’s DAX 30 and the Euro Stoxx 50 indexes lost more than 2%, reflecting the risk-off market sentiment that ultimately weighed on EUR/USD pair. Another factor involved in the market’s dismal sentiment was the lack of progress in the U.S. stimulus aid package. The U.S. advisor Larry Kudlow said that talks were slowed but not ended as the chances of a deal before the election were null, but investors were awaiting the post-election stimulus.

On the data front, at 14:00 GMT, the German Ifo Business Climate for October dropped to 92.7 from the projected 93.1 and weighed on single Currency Euro that added in the losses n EUR/USD pair on Monday. At 19:00 GMT, the New Home Sales from the U.S. also declined to 959K against the expected 1025K and weighed on the U.S. dollar that ultimately helped to limit the losses of the EUR/USD pair. The U.S. dollar was strong on Monday as the U.S. Dollar Index was up to 93 levels due to its safe-haven nature. The greenback rose on Monday as the global COVID-19 cases continue to soar and weigh on market sentiment. Furthermore, the rising number of infections in China decreased the appetite of risky assets like EUR/USD pair as the world’s second-largest economy could suffer a setback.

Looking forward, the Euro traders will await tomorrow for the release of the European Central Bank’s Lending Survey, and the U.S. dollar investors will be looking to September’s U.S. Durable Goods Orders report. The fresh developments surrounding the coronavirus outbreak in the continent will also remain under observation by EUR/USD pair’s investors.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.1839      1.1861

1.1828      1.1872

1.1817      1.1882

Pivot point: 1.1850

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is trading with a slightly bearish bias at the 1.1836 level, holding mostly below an immediate resistance level of 1.1865 area. Closing of candles below the 1.1866 level may drive selling bias until the 1.1811 level that marks 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Continuation of a selling bias may lead the EUR/USD pair further lower until 1.1770, the 50% Fibo level. Conversely, the bullish breakout of the 1.1866 area can open further room for buying until the 1.1910 level today. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.30230 after placing a high of 1.30749 and a low of 1.29928. The GBP/USD pair dropped and continued its previous bearish trend. The GBP/USD pair extended its losses on Monday and continued its bearish streak for the 4th consecutive day, dropping below 1.3000 level despite the Brexit deal optimism in the market mainly due to the broad-based U.S. dollar strength on the day.

The British Pound held steady against the rising U.S. dollar on Monday and shrugged off the renewed demand for the safe-haven greenback on expectations that the U.K. and the E.U. will eventually reach a Brexit deal after both sides agreed to push out the deadline to reach a consensus.

Last Thursday, Brexit talks were resumed and were extended to comping Wednesday when E.U. Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier is expected to attempt to bridge some of the differences between the U.K. and E.U.

It is also assumed that Barnier’s efforts to clinch a deal could revive hopes that German Chancellor Angela Merkel might be able to persuade French President Emmanuel Macron to ease his stance on one of the key sticking points of fishing rights. The United Kingdom has stressed that it would take control over the access to its waters after the Brexit transition period ends. On the other hand, Macron fears that a softer stance over fisheries will sacrifice the French fishermen.

On the other hand, the optimism on progress this week had been mitigated somewhat following reports that the U.K. was waiting until after the U.S. election to reveal its negotiation strategy as a blue wave could weaken Britain’s negotiation stance. Joe Biden has previously said that a UK-US deal would depend on Britain securing a deal with the E.U. These concerns also weighed on British Pound and GBP/USD. However, the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that Brexit and the U.S. election results were entirely separate.

On the data front, at 19:00 GMT, the U.S. economic docket released the report of New Home Sales that dropped to 959K from the anticipated 1025Kand weighed on the U.S. dollar that eventually helped GBP/USD pair in capping further losses. Moreover, the GBP/USD pair’s losses could be attributed to the rising number of coronavirus cases in the U.K. As well as the rising fears of the second wave of coronavirus and its impact globally raised the safe-haven demand for greenback that ultimately added pressure on GBP/USD pair on Monday.

The developments surrounding the U.S. stimulus package also kept the U.S. dollar stronger as the package will not be delivered before the election. The stronger U.S. dollar weighed further on the GBP/USD pair on the day.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.3040      1.3064

1.3028      1.3076

1.3016      1.3088

Pivot point: 1.3052

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD traded with a selling bias below an immediate resistance area of 1.3075. Below this, Cable has closed a bearish engulfing candle that may drive selling bias until the 1.3013 level. Violation of 1.3013 level can open further room for selling until 1.2965 area, the level that’s extending support due to upward trendline on the 4-hour timeframe. The MACD and RSI are in support of selling bias today. Consider opening sell trades below the 1.3075 level today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 104.866 after placing a high of 105.053 and a low of 104.651. The USD/JPY pair remained bullish on Monday and recovered most of the previous daily losses. The USD/JPY pair rose to its highest level in five days above 105 level on Monday. However, it erased a large portion of its gains on the day during the American session.

The broad-based U.S. dollar strength caused the rise in the USD/JPY pair on the day due to its safe-haven status. The selling pressure surrounding the major European currencies on concerns over the rising number of coronavirus cases in the continent also helped the U.S. dollar outperform its rivals. The U.S. Dollar Index that was dropped 1% last week posted a decisive recovery on the starting day of this week and was up by 0.32% on the day at 93.04.

The rising U.S. dollar Index pushed the USD/JPY pair above the 105 level on Monday. However, investors saw this as a selling opportunity regardless of the U.S. dollar strength, and hence, the pair started losing most of its daily gains in the late trading hours. On the data front, at 04:50 GMT, the SPPI for the year from Japan raised to 1.3% against the forecasted 1.0% and supported the Japanese Yen that capped further gains in the USD/JPY pair on Monday.

At 19:00 GMT, the New Home Sales from the U.S. for September fell to 959K from the forecasted 1025K and weighed on the U.S. dollar that also limited further upside in the USD/JPY pair on the day.

The U.S. dollar was also strong on Monday as the talks for the next round of U.S. stimulus measures were stalled till the election. Both parties were moving forward to reach a consensus over the stimulus aid package’s size, but they delayed the delivery of major measures after the election. This raised the U.S. dollar on board and pushed the USD/JPY pair even higher on Monday. Other than that, the U.S. dollar was also up due to rising demand for its safe-haven nature amid the rising number of coronavirus cases globally. France reported 50,000 new cases in a single day and introduced a curfew to curb the virus’s spread. 

Just like that, many European nations, including Italy and Spain, also introduced curfews and restrictive measures. Germany was set to impose restrictions this week and not only in European nations, but the second wave of coronavirus was also spreading worldwide. These concerns weighed on market risk sentiment and raised demand for the greenback that ultimately added strength to the USD/JPY pair on Monday.

Looking forward, the investors will await the release of Durable Goods Orders and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence data that will release on Tuesday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

104.18      105.35

103.68      106.00

103.02      106.51

Pivot point: 104.84

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The oversold USD/JPY pair is taking a bullish turn now, perhaps to complete Fibonacci retracement at 104.900 level. A 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level extends this level, and it may extend resistance to the USD/JPY pair today. Continuation of a bullish bias over the 104.900 level can lead the USD/JPY pair further higher until the 105.225 level. The MACD and RSI are also supporting bullish bis in the USD/JPY pair today. However, the pair seems to have formed a bearish flag on the 4-hour timeframe that typically breakout on the lower side; if that happens, we may see USD/JPY price dropping until the 104.350 mark. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Price Action

Disobeying the Breakout

In today’s lesson, we will demonstrate an example of a chart that makes a breakout, consolidates, and produces a reversal candle. However, it does not make a breakout at consolidation support. Thus, it does not offer an entry. Nevertheless, it makes a move towards the breakout direction later. We try to find out whether breakout traders find an entry from that move or not.

In today’s lesson, we will demonstrate an example of a chart that makes a breakout, consolidates, and produces a reversal candle. However, it does not make a breakout at consolidation support. Thus, it does not offer an entry. Nevertheless, it makes a move towards the breakout direction later. We try to find out whether breakout traders find an entry from that move or not.

In today’s lesson, we will demonstrate an example of a chart that makes a breakout, consolidates, and produces a reversal candle. However, it does not make a breakout at consolidation support. Thus, it does not offer an entry. Nevertheless, it makes a move towards the breakout direction later. We try to find out whether breakout traders find an entry from that move or not.

The chart shows that the price makes a long bearish move. It finds its support where it bounces twice. The chart ends its trading week by producing a Doji candle. The next week should be interesting.

The chart produces a bullish engulfing candle. The buyers may wait for the price to make a breakout at the last swing high. On the other hand, the sellers are to wait for the price to make a breakout at the last week’s low.

The chart produces a spinning top, and the price heads towards the South. It makes a breakout at the last week’s low. Thus, the sellers may keep an eye on this chart for the price to consolidate and produces a bearish reversal candle to offer them a short entry.

It produces a bullish engulfing candle. It is a strong bullish candle. However, the breakout level is still intact. If the level produces a bearish reversal candle followed by a breakout at consolidation support, the Bear may keep dominating in the pair.

The chart produces a Doji candle followed by a spinning top right at the breakout level. The sellers may go short below consolidation support. It looks it is a matter of time for the Bear to make a long move towards the South.

The chart produces a bullish candle breaching the breakout level. It spoils the sellers’ party. The weekly low is disobeyed by the H4 chart. Thus, the H4 sellers may skip taking entry on this chart. The chart becomes no hunting zone for both the buyers and the sellers as far as the H4 chart is concerned. Let us proceed and find out what happens next.

The price makes a bearish move. The pair is trading below the last week’s low. Look at the momentum. The price has been rather sluggish to head towards the South. It is because the pair is traded on other minor charts. As mentioned, if the price disobeys breakout on a chart, it is better not to trade based on that chart. The price may go either way, which makes things difficult for the traders to trade.

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, October 26 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – New Home Sales in Play! 

On Monday, the market is likely to exhibit thin trading volume and volatility in the wake of the Labor day holiday in New Zealand, while the other economies are expecting to release low impact events that may keep the market unchanged. Most of the focus will stay on the U.S. New Home Sales data that may help drive some market volatility today. 

On Monday, the market is likely to exhibit thin trading volume and volatility in the wake of the Labor day holiday in New Zealand, while the other economies are expecting to release low impact events that may keep the market unchanged. Most of the focus will stay on the U.S. New Home Sales data that may help drive some market volatility today. 

On Monday, the market is likely to exhibit thin trading volume and volatility in the wake of the Labor day holiday in New Zealand, while the other economies are expecting to release low impact events that may keep the market unchanged. Most of the focus will stay on the U.S. New Home Sales data that may help drive some market volatility today. 

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.18562 after placing a high of 1.18646 and a low of 1.17865. The movement of the EUR/USD pair was bullish on Friday. Things in European nations were getting out of control and led the governments to impose further restrictions to curb coronavirus’s effect on the economy. France, Italy, and Spain reported a record rise in the daily infection cases that urged their governments to impose curfews and lockdowns.

However, the single currency managed to remain bullish on Friday despite the rising number of coronavirus cases in Europe as the focus of traders shifted more towards the U.S. dollar. The coronavirus condition in the U.S. was also not better as the country reported a record-high number of 82,668 cases in a single day and weighed on the U.S. dollar that ultimately supported the bullish trend of the EUR/USD pair on Friday.

On the data front, at 12:15 GMT, the French Flash Services PMI for October dropped to 46.5 against the forecasted 47.0 and the previous 47.5 and weighed on Euro. The French Flash Manufacturing PMI came in as 51.0 against the expected 51.3 and previous 51.2. AT 12:30 GMT, the German Flash Manufacturing PMI raised to 58.0 against the expected 55.0 and previous 56.4 and supported the single currency. Simultaneously, the German Flash Services PMI raised to 48.9 against the expected 49.6 and previous 50.6 and weighed on the single currency Euro.

At 13:00 GMT, the Flash Manufacturing PMI from Eurozone for October raised to 54.4 against the projected 53.0 and previous 53.7 and supported the single currency Euro. Whereas the Flash Services PMI from the whole bloc dropped to 46.2 from the anticipated 47.1 and the previous 48.0, it also weighed on the single currency Euro. At 17:59 GMT, the Belgian NBB Business Climate from Europe came in as -8.5 against the forecasted -11.2 and supported the single currency. The Eurozone’s macroeconomic data was mixed and failed to provide any meaningful direction to the currency pair EUR/USD on Friday.

From the U.S. side, at 18:45 GMT, the Flash Manufacturing PMI came in line with the expectations of 53.5 for October. The Flash Services PMI from the U.S. for October advanced to 56.0 from the projected 54.7 and supported the U.S. dollar that ultimately capped further gains in EUR/USD pair.

Another factor that kept the additional gains in EUR/USD pair supported was the improved risk sentiment as President Donald Trump and Democratic Joe Biden took part in the final debate of the presidential election campaign in Nashville, Tennessee. The final debate was far more civilized than the previous one, and it potentially led to an additional tightening in the polls that raised the risk sentiment in the market and supported the EUR/USD pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.1796     1.1853

1.1776     1.1888

1.1740     1.1909

Pivot point: 1.1832

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is trading with a slightly bearish bias at the 1.1836 level, holding mostly below an immediate resistance level of 1.1865 area. Closing of candles below the 1.1866 level may drive selling bias until the 1.1811 level that marks 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Continuation of a selling bias may lead the EUR/USD pair further lower until 1.1770, the 50% Fibo level. Conversely, the bullish breakout of the 1.1866 area can open further room for buying until the 1.1910 level today. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.30400 after placing a high of 1.31221 and a low of 1.30189. Overall the movement of the GBP/USD pair remained bearish throughout the day. The GBP/USD pair was down on Friday as the U.S. dollar gained traction on board and made GBP/USD pair weak. As well As, the retreat inequity and risk sentiment also hit the Pound that dropped to fresh lows.

Wall Street’s equity prices went lower on Friday and raised the greenback on board that ultimately dragged GBP/USD pair on the downside. The Dow Jones was down by 0.10%, and NASDAQ was down by 0.18%. The expectations for a new round of fiscal stimulus by the U.S. government before elections faded away and supported the U.S. dollar that ultimately weighed on GBP/USD pair.

Meanwhile, the Chief EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier will provide his weekly assessment of the talks and could point to a lack of meaningful progress despite intensifying talks. The British Brexit negotiator, David Frost, could also do that, and these concerns kept the British Pound under pressure at the ending day of the week.

However, the cautious optimism was prevailing in the market as the E.U. and U.K. had resumed talks related to the Brexit deal. The French President has said to the local fishing industry to brace for an impact that indicated a close deal. Whereas the investors were still cautious as talks could be bent on either side, British Pound remained under pressure ahead of the talks’ results. Moreover, the rising number of coronavirus cases in the United Kingdom pressured the authorities to impose a new full lockdown; however, some were refusing to do so as it had already cost the economy too much. These tensions in the local country also kept the British Pound under pressure.

On the data front, at 04:01 GMT, the GfK Consumer Confidence from Great Britain dropped to -31 against the expected -28and weighed on British Pound and added losses in GBP/USD pair. At 13:30 GMT, the Flash Manufacturing PMI for October remained flat with the anticipated 53.3, and the Flash Services PMI dropped to 52.3 against the projected 53.4 and weighed on British Pound and pulled the pair GBP/USD even lower.

From the U.S. side, at 18:45 GMT, the Flash Manufacturing PMI came in line with the anticipations of 53.5 for October. The Flash Services PMI from the U.S. for October raised to 56.0 from the expected 54.7 and supported the U.S. dollar that ultimately dragged the GBP/USD pair on the downside on Friday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.3049     1.3129

1.3021     1.3179

1.2970     1.3208

Pivot point: 1.3100

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD traded with a selling bias below an immediate resistance area of 1.3075. Below this, the cable has closed a bearish engulfing candle that may drive selling bias until 1.3013 level. Violation of 1.3013 level can open further room for selling until 1.2965 area, the level that’s extending support due to upward trendline on the 4-hour timeframe. The MACD and RSI are in support of selling bias today. Consider opening sell trades below the 1.3075 level today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 104.695 after placing a high of 104.934 and a low of 104.545. The USD/JPY pair moved in a bearish trend throughout Friday. The USD/JPY pair fell on Friday after the final presidential debate between U.S. President Donald Trump and Joe Biden before the November 3rd election.

The Final debate between two presidential candidates took place in Nashville, Tennessee. This final debate was more restrained than the first one. The center of the discussion was on policy rather than a personal attack.

It looked like investors were closing their long positions ahead of the elections and were hesitant to place any big position ahead of November 3 as polls before the final debate turned, so it became difficult to project the outcome of elections.

Investors were also keeping a close eye on the negotiations between House of Representative Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin over the next round of U.S. stimulus package. Pelosi has expressed optimism that a consensus could be reached. In contrast, the expectations that a U.S. stimulus package could be delivered before elections faded away as the date of the election has come closer.

These hopes that a stimulus relief bill could not be delivered ahead of elections, whether both parties agreed on the package’s size as the election was only a week away, supported the U.S. dollar and capped further losses in the USD/JPY pair on Friday.

On the data front, at 04:30 GMT, the National Core CPI from Japan for the year came in as -0.3% against the forecasted -0.4% and supported the Japanese Yen that added in the USD/JPY’s losses. At 05:30 GMT, the Flash Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.0 from the projected 48.4 and weighed on the Japanese Yen.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

104.18     105.35

103.68     106.00

103.02     106.51

Pivot point: 104.84

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The oversold USD/JPY pair is taking a bullish turn now, perhaps to complete Fibonacci retracement at 104.900 level. This level is extended by a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, and it may extend resistance to the USD/JPY pair today. Continuation of a bullish bias over the 104.900 level can lead the USD/JPY pair further higher until the 105.225 level. The MACD and RSI are also supporting bullish bis in the USD/JPY pair today. However, the pair seems to have formed a bearish flag on the 4-hour timeframe that typically breakout on the lower side; if that happens, we may see USD/JPY price dropping until the 104.350 mark. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

USD/CHF Continues to Drip Amid Weaker Dollar – Quick Update on Signal

During Friday’s European trading hours, the USD/JPY currency pair failed to stop its previous session bearish moves and took further offers below mid- the 0.9000 level. However, the reason for the bearish tone around the currency pair could be associated with the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, triggered by the risk-on market mood, which tends to undermine the safe-haven U.S. dollar. Hence, the upbeat market sentiment, supported by optimism over a potential vaccine/treatment for the highly infectious coronavirus.

During Friday’s European trading hours, the USD/JPY currency pair failed to stop its previous session bearish moves and took further offers below mid- the 0.9000 level. However, the reason for the bearish tone around the currency pair could be associated with the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, triggered by the risk-on market mood, which tends to undermine the safe-haven U.S. dollar. Hence, the upbeat market sentiment, supported by optimism over a potential vaccine/treatment for the highly infectious coronavirus.

During Friday’s European trading hours, the USD/JPY currency pair failed to stop its previous session bearish moves and took further offers below mid- the 0.9000 level. However, the reason for the bearish tone around the currency pair could be associated with the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, triggered by the risk-on market mood, which tends to undermine the safe-haven U.S. dollar. Hence, the upbeat market sentiment, supported by optimism over a potential vaccine/treatment for the highly infectious coronavirus.

On the contrary, the positive tone around the equity market also weakened the safe-haven Swiss franc and became the factor that cap further downside momentum for the USD/CHF currency pair. Currently, the USD/CHF currency pair is currently trading at 0.90430.9043 and consolidating in the range between 0.9040 – 0.9095.

While discussing the positive side of the story, the renewed optimism over a possible vaccine for the highly infectious coronavirus disease boosted the market risk tone. However, the hopes of the vaccine were boosted after Gilead Sciences received US FDA approval for its antiviral therapy to treat the highly contagious coronavirus disease. Elsewhere, the reasons for the risk-on market trading sentiment could also be attributed to rising expectations of further U.S. stimulus package. These hopes were fueled after the positive remarks of President Donald Trump and House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi, which eventually raised hopes for the measures to be passed before the election. Thus, the risk-on market mood tends to undermine the safe-haven Swiss franc, which becomes the key factor that lends some support to the currency pair to ease the intraday bearish pressure surrounding the USD/CHF pair.

As a result of the upbeat market sentiment, the broad-based U.S. dollar failed to gain any positive traction on the day. Apart from this, the U.S. dollar losses could also be associated with the increasing expectations of a strong Democratic victory in the U.S. elections, which tend to undermine the greenback. However, the U.S. dollar losses became the key factor that kept the currency pair under pressure. Simultaneously, the U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies dropped to 92.757.

Across the ocean, the equity market’s optimism was rather unaffected by the intensified US-China tussle and Brexit concerns. At the US-China front, the U.S. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo designated 6-more Chinese publications as “foreign missions”, or media outlets controlled by Beijing, at a Wednesday briefing. These headlines have little to no impact on the CHF markets.

Looking forward, the market traders will keep their eyes on the USD moves amid the lack of major data/events on the day. However, the final presidential debate between President Donald Trump and his Democratic rival Joe Biden. will be key to watch. Furthermore, the risk catalyst like geopolitics and the virus woes, not to forget the Brexit, could not lose their importance.


Daily Support and Resistance

S1 0.9016
S2 0.9042
S3 0.9058
Pivot Point 0.9069
R1 0.9085
R2 0.9096
R3 0.9123

Entry Price – Sell 0.90606
Stop Loss – 0.91006
Take Profit – 0.90206
Risk to Reward – 1:1
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40
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Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, October 23 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – European PMI In Highlights! 

The economic calendar is filled with medium impact economic events such as Unemployment Claims, C.B. Leading Index m/m, and Existing Home Sales from the United States on the news front. Besides, the Consumer Confidence from the Eurozone will also remain in the highlights today. The market may show some price action during the U.S. session on the release of U.S. Jobless Claims. 

The economic calendar is filled with medium impact economic events such as Unemployment Claims, C.B. Leading Index m/m, and Existing Home Sales from the United States on the news front. Besides, the Consumer Confidence from the Eurozone will also remain in the highlights today. The market may show some price action during the U.S. session on the release of U.S. Jobless Claims. 

The economic calendar is filled with medium impact economic events such as Unemployment Claims, C.B. Leading Index m/m, and Existing Home Sales from the United States on the news front. Besides, the Consumer Confidence from the Eurozone will also remain in the highlights today. The market may show some price action during the U.S. session on the release of U.S. Jobless Claims. 

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD closed at 1.18184 after placing a high of 1.18666 and a low of 1.18111. The EUR/USD pair was down and remained bearish on that day. As the market sentiment deteriorated and the U.S. dollar moved stronger across the board, the EUR/USD pair dropped on a session by 0.3% and remained one of the worst G10 performers on Thursday.

The common currency put an end to a four-day rally on Thursday as the hopes of the next round of U.S. stimulus deal faded away. 

The U.S. President Donald Trump crushed the risk appetite on Thursday after blaming Democrats for not compromising an acceptable agreement. This raised the U.S. dollar on board from its seven-week lowest level. The hopes for the next round of U.S. stimulus package were faded after Trump blamed Democrats that they were unwilling to compromise on the relief aid bill’s size. However, the talks were continuing, and it is uncertain whether a stimulus package is delivered before the Presidential elections or not.

The faded hopes dampened the risk sentiment and added strength to the U.S. dollar that ultimately added weight on the EUR/USD pair on Thursday. Furthermore, the rising number of coronavirus cases in Europe also weighed on the EUR/USD pair. In Europe, the daily number of infections reached record levels, with Spain becoming the first western country to report one million cases. These rising numbers of coronavirus cases from Europe also undermined the Euro currency’s confidence, ultimately added to the losses of the  EUR/USD pair.

On the data front, at 11:00 GMT, the German GfK Consumer Climate came in as -3.1 against the forecasted -2.9 and weighed on Euro currency that added in the losses of EUR/USD pair. At 18:52 GMT, the Consumer Confidence from Europe was also declined to -16 from the projected -15 and weighed on the single currency and added in the losses of EUR/USD pair. From the U.S. side, the Unemployment Claims from last week were dropped to 787K against the projected 860K and supported the U.S. dollar. At 19:00 GMT, the Existing Home Sales also raised to 6.54M against the forecasted 6.20M and supported the U.S. dollar that ultimately weighed on EUR/USD pair.

Apart from macroeconomic data, the European Central bank has also hinted that the Eurozone’s economy was in for a bumpy road ahead. The President of ECB Christine Lagarde also warned about the effects of the second wave of coronavirus on the economy. So, the weak outlook of the Eurozone economy also weighed on EUR/USD pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support    Resistance

1.1828     1.1889

1.1795     1.1915

1.1768     1.1949

Pivot Point: 1.1855

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The bullish bias of the EUR/USD has weakened as the pair fell from the 1.1880 level to a 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.1805 level. This level’s violation may trigger further selling until the 1.1769 area that marks 61.8% Fibonacci retracement for the EUR/USD. The EUR/USD is likely to exhibit further selling bias today, especially after violating the 1.1770 level to 1.1740 level. The MACD and RSI are also supporting the bearish bias; therefore, bearish bias remains dominant today. The EUR/USD may face resistance around 1.1837 and 1.1880 level today.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD closed at 1.30822 after placing a high of 1.31517 and a low of 1.30704. Overall the GBP/USD pair remained on the downside all through the day. The GBP/USD pair gave up some ground and remained bearish on Thursday amid the broad-based U.S. dollar come back. However, the GBP/USD pair managed to stay in the upper half of its weekly range.

The British Pound fell on Thursday, although the talks between the E.U. & U.K. resumed on the day. The reason could be attributed to the brinkmanship from Britain amid negotiations, risk an accidental no-deal Brexit. On Thursday, the top E.U. Brexit negotiator Michael Barnier arrived in London to intensify talks with his British counterpart David Frost to break the impasse and find a solution to key sticking points, fisheries, and state aid.

The fisheries have long been a debating point in the Brexit negotiations as the U.K. has been determined to control access to its waters after the transition period ends. U.K. has refused to stick with the E.U.’s common fisheries policy that set fishing quotas among the E.U. member states. The transition period has come near to end with just months to go, and the U.K. has refused to allow talks to run past the year-end deadline. According to a spokesman for UK PM Boris Johnson, the time has remained very short as the U.K. has been reportedly clear that any agreement should be placed before the end of the transition period.

The concerns have raised in the market that the U.K.’s strategy to be somewhat tough on talks and deadlines could risk an accidental no-deal Brexit as the end of the year is coming ahead. These concerns weighed on the Sterling and added the GBP/USD pair’s losses on Thursday.

On the data front, the CBI Industrial Order Expectations from the U.K. came in as -34 against the forecasted -50 and supported British Pound. 

However, from the U.S. side, the Unemployment Claims from the previous week declined to 787K against the forecasted 860K and supported the U.S. dollar. The Existing Home Sales also supported the U.S. dollar after rising to 6.54M from the anticipated 6.20M. The positive data from the U.S. exerted pressure on GBP/USD pair on Thursday. Meanwhile, the Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey told of strong demand to invest in climate change technology. He also sketched a strong demand for green investment. Looking forward, market participants will await the release of PMI for services and manufacturing activities to find a fresh clue about GBP/USD pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support    Resistance

1.3049     1.3129

1.3021     1.3179

1.2970     1.3208

Pivot point: 1.3100

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD traded bearishly below the 1.3165 resistance area to trade at the 1.3070 level that marks the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level for the Sterling. On the further downside, the GBP/USD pair may take another dip until the 61.8% Fibo level of 1.3018 as the MACD is still pointing towards the selling area. At the moment, Sterling’s immediate resistance holds at the 1.3070 mark; however, the closings below this level is supporting the selling bias. Consider opening sell trades below the 1.3100 level today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 104.884 after placing a high of 104.921 and a low of 104.474. The movement of the USD/JPY currency pair stayed bullish throughout the day. The USD/JPY pair traded with a positive note during the whole Thursday session after a goodish pickup in the U.S. dollar demand. The rebounded U.S. dollar helped currency pair USD/JPY to gain positive traction and move away from the six-week lowest level it touched on Wednesday.

The slow progress in the U.S. stimulus measure package attracted some buying in the greenback that dampened the hopes that financial aid will be delivered before elections. The statement by House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi that soon there will be pen to paper on the stimulus bill failed to impress investors, and the USD/JPY pair continued moving in the upward direction.

Pelosi even said that the stimulus package could be passed in the House before election day. Still, investors were somewhat unconvinced that the bill could pass through the Senate due to the strong opposition from Republicans over a bigger stimulus deal. This, in turn, weighed on risk sentiment and supported the Japanese Yen that ultimately capped further upside in the USD/JPY pair prices.

Apart from developments surrounding the U.S. fiscal stimulus, the USD bulls further took clues from the better than expected release of the U.S. initial jobless claims. The number of Americans filed for unemployment benefits declined to 787K during the previous week for the first time against the projected 860K and supported the U.S. dollar. The decline in unemployment claims means less need for a U.S. stimulus package and more strength for the U.S. dollar and USD/JPY pair.

On the data front, the C.B. Leading Index from the U.S. dropped to 0.7% against the expected 0.8% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The Existing Home Sales advanced to 6.54M in comparison to projected 6.20M and supported the U.S. dollar. Another favorable economic data release gave strength to the U.S. dollar that pushed the USD/JPY pair even higher on grounds.

Meanwhile, the rising number of coronavirus cases across the globe and fears for economic recovery due to lockdowns imposed to curb the spread of the virus raised the safe-haven appeal, supported the Japanese Yen, and weighed on the USD/JPY pair to limit its bullish move on Thursday.

On Thursday, the U.S. Dollar Index measures the greenback against the six currencies’ basket surge by 0.4% to 92.97. The U.S. dollar index fell to its seven-week lowest level at 92.46 on Wednesday but recovered from there on the next day amid a strong U.S. dollar despite the talks for stimulus package continued. However, traders’ focus will now be shifted towards the final presidential debate between President US Donald Trump and his Democratic rival Joe Biden.

Daily Technical Levels

Support    Resistance

104.18     105.35

103.68     106.00

103.02     106.51

Pivot point: 104.84

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY traded dramatically bearish to drop from 105.460 level to 104.349 level. Like other pairs, the USD/JPY has also entered the oversold zone, and now sellers seem to be exhausted. On the higher side, the USD/JPY pair has reversed some of the losses to trade at the 104.700 level. On the higher side, the pair may go after the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 104.900 and 50% Fibo level of 105. Let’s consider taking a buying trade over 104.350 area today. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

USD/CAD Slips Below Downward Trendline – Brace for a Sell Signal! 

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.31447 after placing a high of 1.31519 and a low of 1.30808. Overall the movement of the USD/CAD pair remained bullish throughout the day. In the early trading session on Wednesday, the USD/CAD pair followed its Tuesday’s move and dropped to its lowest since 7th September over the US dollar’s weakness. The decline in crude oil prices also played a role in raising the USD/CAD pair on board. The negative macroeconomic data from Canada also added strength to the USD/CAD pair gains on Wednesday.

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.31447 after placing a high of 1.31519 and a low of 1.30808. Overall the movement of the USD/CAD pair remained bullish throughout the day. In the early trading session on Wednesday, the USD/CAD pair followed its Tuesday’s move and dropped to its lowest since 7th September over the US dollar’s weakness. The decline in crude oil prices also played a role in raising the USD/CAD pair on board. The negative macroeconomic data from Canada also added strength to the USD/CAD pair gains on Wednesday.

The USD/CAD pair was closed at 1.31447 after placing a high of 1.31519 and a low of 1.30808. Overall the movement of the USD/CAD pair remained bullish throughout the day. In the early trading session on Wednesday, the USD/CAD pair followed its Tuesday’s move and dropped to its lowest since 7th September over the US dollar’s weakness. The decline in crude oil prices also played a role in raising the USD/CAD pair on board. The negative macroeconomic data from Canada also added strength to the USD/CAD pair gains on Wednesday.

On the data front, the Consumer Price Index from Canada was released at 17:30 GMT for September, which came in line with -0.1%. The Core Retail Sales from Canada for September declined to 0.5% from the projected 0.9%. For September, the Retail Sales dropped to 0.4% against the expected 1.0% and weighed on the Canadian dollar. Dollarmmon and Median CPI from Canada came in line with the expectations of 1.5% and 1.9%, respectively.

 Whereas the NHPI for September raised to 1.9% from the forecasted 1.2%. The Core CPI for September also remained the same as the year at 0.1%. However, the Trimmed CPI for the year raised to 1.8% against the forecasted 1.7%. The highlighted CPI, Retail Sales, and Core Retails Sales data came in negative or as expected and weighed on the Canadian Dollar tDollartimately pushed higher the USD/CAD prices on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, the Crude Oil Inventories from the previous week dropped to -1.0M against the forecasted 0.5M and raised the demand for crude oil that ultimately supported the declining WTI crude oil prices on Wednesday.

Crude oil prices suffered on Wednesday though most of its losses recovered still, it closed its day weak, which made its commodity-linked currencies Loonie weaker and supported the rising USD/CAD pair.


Daily technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.3103 1.3184

1.3051 1.3213

1.3023 1.3265

Pivot point: 1.3132

The USD/CAD is facing immediate resistance at the 1.3171 level, and closing of candles below this level is likely to drive selling bias in the market. The USD/CAD has recently closed a Doji candle below 1.3172, which is suggesting that the bullish bias seems to be over, and sellers may enter the market soon. As we can see on the chart, the USD/CAD’s very next candle is bearish engulfing, followed by a doji candle, support strong selling bias for the pair. Therefore, we have opened a sell signal, and we aim for quick 40 pips. Check out a trading plan below.

Entry Price – Buy 0.71124

Stop Loss – 0.70724

Take Profit – 0.71524

Risk to Reward – 1:1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

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