Tag: Support and Resistance

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, November 14 – Major Trade Setups – German Prelim GDP In Focus! 

On Thursday, the safe-haven demand remains high as the trader’s eyes stay on the United States and China trade news to observe the impact on the riks sentiment, which continues

On Thursday, the safe-haven demand remains high as the trader’s eyes stay on the United States and China trade news to observe the impact on the riks sentiment, which continues

On Thursday, the safe-haven demand remains high as the trader’s eyes stay on the United States and China trade news to observe the impact on the riks sentiment, which continues to play an impactable role in the USD/JPY currency par prices. The market will closely be observing the US producer Prices Index an Unemployment Claims data, which is scheduled to release ahead of day 2 of Powell’s testimony.

At the Hong Kong front, the Hong Kong civil unrest and violence take the worst turn for the 4th-straight day on Thursday, after the police reported that a man dressed in black and aged in his 30s died.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

   

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair currently trading near the level of 1.1006 on the day. Even after the pair spot staying below 200-bar Simple Moving Average, the EUR/USD currency pair bounces off 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its October month upward. 

However, the buyers will likely wait for a bullish break of 200-bar moving Average at 1.1058 now, followed by 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and late-October lows surrounding 1.1065/75, to target 1.1100 marks.

On the positive side, if the GDP positive release, the pair may attempt recovery of 1.1040 and 1.156, the confluence zone of the 50 and 10-DMA. Buyers will likely try for the test of the 100-day Moving Average at 1.1100 on a continues break above the last. 

On the technical side, the pairs Techincal st up continues to favor the buyers because the EUR/USD pair still on the track to test the immediate support of mid-October lows near the 1.0991. While the break bellow will likely escalate selling pressure, because of the buyer’s eyes 1.0950 as the next support, the more bearish trend in pairs could hit the multi-year lows of 1.0879 over again.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.0958

S2 1.0983

S1 1.0996

Pivot Point 1.1008

R1 1.1021

R2 1.1033

R3 1.1058

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD continues to trade lower, maintaining a bearish bias after violating the support level of 1.1000. On the 4 hour timeframe, the EUR/USD has inside down candlestick pattern, which is signaling chances of further sell-off in the market. 

For the moment, the EUR/USD is holding below a crucial trading level of 1.1000 as below this; the pair can continue falling until 1.0960. So consider staying bearish below 1.1000 level today.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair sideways and taking round to 12840 mainly due to optimism surrounding the United Kingdom political plays face the greenback strength ahead of the United Kingdom Retail Sales Data for October.

Brexit party leader Nigel Farage’s denial of the Conservative’s request of standing down more than 317 candidates, earlier promised, will likely negatively affect the British Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson’s popularity. The United Kingdom’s (UK) PM Boris Johnson was recently hackled during a speech to the flood-affected area. Whereas, surveys regarding the December election keep showing Tories holding power.

Looking forward to October, UK Retail Sales could boost the GBP/USD demand if it hit the upbeat predictions. However, the market’s rush to risk-safety can increase the USD gains if the Fed Chair support upside momentum during his Testimony 2.0.

Overview of UK Retail Sales, the UK retail sales, scheduled to be released later this session at 0930 GMT, is forecasted to come in at 0.2% MoM in October, after no increase seen in September. Total retail sales are seen coming at 3.7% over the year in the reported month, up from 3.1% booked previously.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2767

S2 1.2806

S1 1.2829

Pivot Point 1.2845

R1 1.2868

R2 1.2884

R3 1.2923

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD is consolidating in the broad trading range of 1.2970 – 1.2780, while if we narrow it down, it becomes 1.2870 – 1.2785. The MACD and RSI have passed above 0 and 50, sequentially, indicating the probabilities of a downward movement in the GBP/USD. 

At the moment, the GBP/USD trades at 1.2835 level, and it may find support around 1.2785. I will consider taking buying positions above 1.2845 and selling below the same level today. 

 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair failed to hit the recovery track from thee 6-days lows of 108.65 and still stands near the range of 108.80 area, mainly due to on-going trade uncertainty between the United States and China. On the other hand, the pairs didn’t get any impact by the Japans Q3 GDP because of the renewed Sino-US trade war.

The Japanese Preliminary Q3 GDP rate slightly increased even less-than-expected across the time limit. However, the Japanese yen currency gave little attention to the sluggish figure releases. The Japanese yen continued getting support from the risk-off sentiment in Wall Street’s futures and global equities mainly after the United States and China trade tension again escalated during the overnight trading hours.

Trader’s eyes stay on the United States and China trade news to observe the impact on the riks sentiment, which continues to play an impactable role in the USD/JPY currency par prices. The market will closely be observing the US producer Prices Index an Unemployment Claims data, which is scheduled to release ahead of day 2 of Powell’s testimony.

At the Hong Kong front, the Hong Kong civil unrest and violence take the worst turn for the 4th-straight day on Thursday, after the police reported that a man dressed in black and aged in his 30s died.

Despite the Hong Kong confusion and renewed US-China trade tensions, the market mood looks to be developing over the last, with S&P 500 futures having flashed green as well as the Japanese stocks. This has helped put a minor buying under USD/JPY that is now trading in session highs near the 108.85 regions.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 107.87

S2 108.37

S1 108.57

Pivot Point 108.86

R1 109.06

R2 109.36

R3 109.85

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading at 108.70, right above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. This level also marks double bottom support and may keep the USD/JPY pair supported today.

The violation of the 108.700 level can extend selling until 108.500, the 61.8% Fibo level today. The MACD and RSI are also supporting the bearish trend in the USD/JPY pair. 

All the best!

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Forex Market Analysis

Gold Violates Bearish Channel – Positive CPI Weights 

During the European session, the yellow metal gold prices climbed following a speech by U.S. President Donald Trump. Most of the safe-haven appeal triggered after President Trump denies rolling back

During the European session, the yellow metal gold prices climbed following a speech by U.S. President Donald Trump. Most of the safe-haven appeal triggered after President Trump denies rolling back

During the European session, the yellow metal gold prices climbed following a speech by U.S. President Donald Trump. Most of the safe-haven appeal triggered after President Trump denies rolling back tariffs, denting the hopes for a positive indication on a U.S.-China trade agreement, provoking traders to explore safe-haven assets.

Just a few minutes back, the U.S. Consumer Price Index accelerated 0.4% in October on a seasonally adjusted data after being stable in September. 

Over the year, the all items index grew 1.8% ere seasonal changes. The energy index rose 2.7% in October following recent monthly drops and deemed for more than half of the rise in the seasonally adjusted all items index. The positive surge in CPI is weighing on the gold prices, and it may keep gold bearish during the U.S. session until the release of Fed Chair Powell. 

XAU/USD – Daily Technical Levels

Support     Resistance 

1,447.89     1,462.71

1,439.38     1,469.02

1,424.57     1,483.83

Pivot Point 1,454.2

Technically, gold prices have violated the bearish channel, which was extending resistance at 1456 area. The bullish breakout has lead gold prices below 1,466 level, which also marks the double top level. The RSI and MACD here are in favor of a bullish bias. 


So here’s a thing, the buyers may enter for further buying above 1,467 level to target 1,474. Elsewhere, gold can trade bearish below 1,466 level today. On the lower side, support can be seen around 1,454. All the best!  

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Forex Market Analysis

Gold Bearish Channel Dominates – U.S. China Trade Issue Trending!

On Tuesday, the precious metal gold prices edged lower as forecasts of resolute trade discussions between the United States and China supported risk desire, while traders pocketed profits ahead of

On Tuesday, the precious metal gold prices edged lower as forecasts of resolute trade discussions between the United States and China supported risk desire, while traders pocketed profits ahead of

On Tuesday, the precious metal gold prices edged lower as forecasts of resolute trade discussions between the United States and China supported risk desire, while traders pocketed profits ahead of further updates.

The precious metal gold also sank 0.2%, to $1,454.20 per ounce as investors moved their funds into the stock markets, the higher-yielding assets these days. Consequently, the global stock indices surged higher on Tuesday as traders anticipated a speech by President Trump on trade policy during the U.S. session.

Investors will be closely following Trump’s speech to have a clear stance on the U.S. China tariff rollover, and the EU auto industry tariffs delay.

EU leaders said Trump was supposed to declare this week he was holding the tariff ruling on cars and auto parts shipped from the European Union probably for another six months. That’s raising anticipations about the president’s speech following in the day about the long-drawn trade war with China.

XAU/USD – Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance
1,452.53    1,469.27
1,446.03    1,479.51
1,429.29    1,496.25
Pivot Point 1,462.77

Gold is trading in a bearish channel, which is keeping it supported around 1,448 level. It’s also extending resistance at 1,456 area. The bearish channel clearly suggests strong chances of further sell-off in the gold prices.

On the lower side, the bearish breakout of 1,448 level can extend selling further until 1,444 level. But for the bearish breakout, we need a solid reason that we can’t expect after looking at today’s economic calendar.

Therefore, consider staying bearish below 1,456 and bullish above 1,448 to capture choppy trading in gold. All the best!

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, November 12 – Major Trade Setups – Trump’s Speech Ahead! 

The buck slipped along with the global stock, which plunged on Monday following the U.S. President Donald Trump’s comments during the weekend tore investor confidence that Washington and Beijing would

The buck slipped along with the global stock, which plunged on Monday following the U.S. President Donald Trump’s comments during the weekend tore investor confidence that Washington and Beijing would

The buck slipped along with the global stock, which plunged on Monday following the U.S. President Donald Trump’s comments during the weekend tore investor confidence that Washington and Beijing would immediately reach an agreement to settle their debilitating trade war.

At the Sino-US trade front, the United States and China trade tension flashing continuously, whereas the United States interference in the Hong Kong protests awaits China’s response fro fresh risk-off. The market’s risk-tone continues slowly, with the United States ten-year treasury yields being around 1.92%, with most Asian stocks flashing mixed signals. 

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair consolidates in the narrow range of 1.1030 and 1.1050 due to the greenback continues its recovery rally. As of writing, the pair mostly trades near the 1.10 range during on the day, because of USD strength. As we all well aware, the uncertainty surrounding the United States and China trade deal and Hong Kong’s civil protest worries resurged the demand for safety, so that’s why the market was favoring the U.S. currency.

Whereas, on the EUR-side of the equation, the uncertain result of the Spanish general election combined with Eurozone economic growth worries continues to remain a bearish impact on the common currency.

Markets now traders keenly await the German macro news and some new transparency on the US-China trade front for fresh trading impulse, whereas Trump’s speech scheduled today at 1700 GMT will likely also direct the next moves in the spot.

Daily Support and Resistance  

S3 1.0953

S2 1.0992

S1 1.1006

Pivot Point 1.1031

R1 1.1045

R2 1.107

R3 1.1108

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is trading with a slightly bullish bias since it violated the resistance level of 1.1025. On the 4 hour timeframe, the EUR/USD has formed a bullish engulfing candle, which is signaling chances of further buying in the market. 

For the moment, the EUR/USD is concentrating on a critical trading level of 1.1060, which is probable to hold the EUR/USD bearish below this mark. Below this level, the EUR/USD may gain support at 1.1025 and 1.1000 level today. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair got limited benefits from the United Kingdoms’ optimism because the pairs await fresh hints from the monthly employment figures whereas taking the buying to 1.2865. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair currently trading at 1.2865.

At the Sino-US trade front, the United States and China trade tension flashing continuously, whereas the United States interference in the Hong Kong protests awaits China’s response fro fresh risk-off. The market’s risk-tone continues slowly, with the United States ten-year treasury yields being around 1.92%, with most Asian stocks flashing mixed signals. 

There will likely be a moderate weakness in Claimant Count estimates amid no change in Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings. After the data, the speech from the United States President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve speech will be closely followed to decide the future of the United States and China trade relations and the U.S. Federal Reserve futures moves, respectively.

Daily Support and Resistance   

S3 1.2676

S2 1.2732

S1 1.2754

Pivot Point 1.2789

R1 1.281

R2 1.2845

R3 1.2901

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD appears to have broken the bearish trendline resistance of 1.2825 upon the release of optimistic GDP figures. The MACD and RSI have crossed above 0 and 50, respectively, implying the odds of a bullish bias in the GBP/USD. 

On the lower side, the GBP/USD may find immediate support at 1.2845 level. But the closing of candles above 1.2845 area suggests strong chance of buying trend continuation. 

Consider taking buying positions above 1.2845 and selling below the same level today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair found on the bullish track and taking buying near the 109.20 on the day, despite the trade tension between the United States and China, and protest in Hong Kong. The greenback strength could be the reason behind the pair’s bullish trend. Notably, the recovery of U.S. bond trading, greenback sent higher.

However, investors broadly avoided the United States’ expectations regarding the tariff roll back from the European Union automobiles and positive comments from the Japanese Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura as well.

Whereas the traders will keep their eyes on trade and Hong Kong worries, as well as the United States President Donald Trump comments from the Economic Club of New York, lunch will also keep under the eyes. The United States President is broadly expected to clarify the much needed United States and China trade relations and the U.S. tariff policy.

Looking forward, Focus will be on Trump’s speech and speeches by the Federal Reserve officials, which is scheduled to speak later on Friday, in the absence of relevant macro data out of the U.S. President is scheduled to speak at the Economic Club of New York around 1700 GMT.

Daily Support and Resistance   

S3 108.48

S2 108.88

S1 109.08

Pivot Point 109.28

R1 109.47

R2 109.68

R3 110.07

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On the 4 hour chart, the USD/JPY pair is forming higher’s high and higher’s low pattern, which suggesting bullish bias among traders. The USD/JPY has immediate support at 108.900 and resistance at 109.400. 

The MACD is forming histograms in the bearish zone, but the recent histogram is likely to develop above 0, and it may drive more buying until 109.450 today. 

All the best!

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, November 11 – Major Trade Setups – U.S. China Trade War In Play!

The U.S. dollar was marginally softer against the single currency euro and safe-haven currency Japanese yen, following some traders caution that the agreement could still unravel. The dollar index traded

The U.S. dollar was marginally softer against the single currency euro and safe-haven currency Japanese yen, following some traders caution that the agreement could still unravel. The dollar index traded

The U.S. dollar was marginally softer against the single currency euro and safe-haven currency Japanese yen, following some traders caution that the agreement could still unravel. The dollar index traded at $1.1020 versus the shared currency euro and 109.23 against the Japanese yen. 

Whereas the Chinese yuan was marginally lower in the offshore business, but still on the strong opponent of 7-per-dollar at 6.9892 in foreign trade. 

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair stops its further declining streak after a 5-day losing trend. As of writing, the pair is currently trading above the 1.1000, having hit the 3-weeks low of 1.1017 last Friday. Notably, the EUR/USD pair remains cautious, mainly due to the greenback strength.

As of now, the pair is fluctuating up and down between a 10-pips narrow range during the Monday. The markets await fresh clues regarding the United States and China trade relations for a new direction, as well as the big economic releases from both sides of Atlantic the week ahead for the next direction. The United States docket discusses the releases of the CPI data and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s testimony, whereas the EUR calendar headlines the Eurozone growth figures.

Looking ahead, the pair could keep its range trade steady mainly due to the holiday in the United States, the markets of the United States closed in the wake of Veterans Day. However, the greenback will continue its progress due to fresh trade-related development.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.0953

S2 1.0992

S1 1.1006

Pivot Point 1.1031

R1 1.1045

R2 1.107

R3 1.1108

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is consolidating with a bearish bias since it broke the bullish trendline support around the 1.1025 area. On the 4 hour timeframe, the pair has formed strong bearish channels, which are signaling chances of further selling in the market. 

At the moment, the EUR/USD is focusing on a crucial trading level of 1.1060 level, which is likely to keep the EUR/USD bearish under this. Below this level, the EUR/USD may gain support at 1.1025 and 1.1000 level today. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair hit the 3-week low mainly due to Moodys cut the United Kingdom outlook unfavorable. By the way, the pair stop its further bearish movement because of UK GDP. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair currently trading around 1.2793.

The U.S. Dollar continues its recovery rally due to the global investors try safety and cautious in the wake of intensifying uncertainty surrounding the United States and China trade deal and protests in Honk Kong. Moreover, the reason behind the greenback safe-haven demand could be the geopolitical tension in the Middle East.

On the other hand, Chancellor’s defeat to justify the criticism of the opposition Labour party’s spending plan increased the uncertainties regarding the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Jonson’s lead during the snap elections, which is scheduled to happen in December.

As of data, the UK GDP is expected to increase to +0.3% from -0.2% on QoQ; the YoY figures might decrease to 1.1% from 1.3%. Moreover, Manufacturing Production could shrink -0.2% against -0.7% prior, whereas Industrial Production could increase to -0.1% from -0.6%.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2676

S2 1.2732

S1 1.2754

Pivot Point 1.2789

R1 1.281

R2 1.2845

R3 1.2901

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD seems to have violated the sideways channel following the Bank of England policy decision. The MACD and RSI have crossed below 0 and 50, respectively, suggesting the chances of a bearish trend in the GBP/USD. On the downside, the GBP/USD has closed one of the candles below 1.2785 area, which suggests strong chances of a bearish trend continuation. 

Next support prevails around 1.2750, and the violation of this level can extend sell-off until 1.2685. 

 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair remained on the bullish track and got the additional boost and reached near the multi-month high mainly due to Japan Machinery Orders declined below the expected figures. As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair currently trading at 109.20 on the day.

Japan’s September month Machinery Orders against market forecasts on MoM and YoY basis. Whereas the monthly numbers dropped below +0.9% expected and -2.4% before -2.9%, yearly numbers seem a bit less negative with +5.1% growth figures against 7.9% consensus and -14.5% earlier readouts.

While looking at the lack of the United States traders from markets, mainly due to the Veterans Day holiday, along with the recent data, US investors have no key event and statistics for publishing on the economic calendar.

Notably, the lowest inflation figures from the United States and the Federal Chairs’ testimony may also force the traders to keep away from the big position before the event.

    

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 108.48

S2 108.88

S1 109.08

Pivot Point 109.28

R1 109.47

R2 109.68

R3 110.07

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On the technical side, the USD/JPY currency pair had shown the wrong direction to the buyers of the market during the last 48 hours as you know the pair dropped in 48 hours against the buyer’s expectations. The pair closed above the 200-day M.A. on Monday to fall back below the long-term M.A. in the overnight trade. Consider staying bearish below

109.100 today to target 108.850 and 108.700. 

All the best!

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily November 07– Major Trade Setups – Brace for BOE Rate Decision! 

On Thursday, the dollar’s determined and blending strength will last well into next year, and even if an incomplete U.S.-China trade agreement is signed, it will at most hit the

On Thursday, the dollar’s determined and blending strength will last well into next year, and even if an incomplete U.S.-China trade agreement is signed, it will at most hit the

On Thursday, the dollar’s determined and blending strength will last well into next year, and even if an incomplete U.S.-China trade agreement is signed, it will at most hit the currency by 1-2% in the instant aftermath. 

Today, the focus of traders stays on the series of services PMI figures from the Eurozone. 

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair flashing red and dropped for 3-consecutive days, this bearish trend considered as the biggest losing streak since early September. As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair closed at 0.10% bearish during the Wednesday, as well as the pair was dropped by 0.33% and 0.48% during the Monday and Tuesday. The 3-day declining streak is the highest early September. 

At the time of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.1059, showing a 0.06% decline on the day. On the technical side, the technical outlook found on the bearish track with Wednesday close below 1.1073, which confirmed a double top bearish breakdown on the daily chart.

The possibility of Industrial production missing forecasts is high. That would support the bearish technical trend, probably increase the losses in the EUR. It should be noted that the upbeat expectation will likely a good sign of EUR currency. However, the strong close above 1.1073 is much needed to cancel the bearish trend.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.1018

S2 1.1047

S1 1.1056

Pivot Point 1.1075

R1 1.1084

R2 1.1103

R3 1.1131

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is trading with a bearish bias since it violated the bullish trendline support around 1.1125 area. On the 4 hour timeframe, the pair has formed strong bearish channels, which are signaling chances of further selling in the market. 

At the moment, the EUR/USD is focusing on a crucial trading level of 1.1060 level, which is likely to determine the further direction of the pair. Below this level, the EUR/USD may gain support at 1.1040 and 1.1010 level today. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair hit the bearish track and hit the weekly low as the cautious sentiment of the GBP traders due to Super Thursday. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair currently trading at 1.2837, as well as the greenback is increasing across the board and uncertainty regarding the trade deal between Sino-US also leaving an impact on the EUR/USD currency pair.

At the Sino-US trade front, the condition surrounding the round-1 trade deal between the United States and China seems doubtful recently. Although, thee U.S. Dollar supported from the move as new thinkings of the Federal Reserves pause in the rate cut cycle.

On the other hand, the investors will strictly be observed to the speech of UK Chancellor Sajid Javid and second-tier data from the U.S., coupled with comments by the President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Robert Kaplan which is scheduled to deliver later. 

Today, the whole focus stays on the Bank of England monetary policy report, where the BOE is widely supposed to keep the interest rate on the clutch at 0.75% today.  

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2758

S2 1.2812

S1 1.2832

Pivot Point 1.2865

R1 1.2886

R2 1.2918

R3 1.2971

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD hasn’t improved enough as it extends to trade sideways ahead of the Bank of England policy decision. The MACD and RSI have crossed below 0 and 50, respectively, suggesting the chances of a bearish trend in the GBP/USD. But the thing is, investors are staying out of the market ahead of BOE rate. On the downside, the GBP/USD may see next support around 1.2786, and the violation of this level can extend sell-off until 1.2690. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair are representing losses by 24-pips and currently trading at 108.74. As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair is on the bearish attitude due to the moderate declines in the U.S. index futures. Notably, the futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are reporting 0.12% and 0.17% losses; respectively, the uncertainty increased again between the United States and China trade deal.

While the United States ten-year treasury yields stop previous drops around 1.815% whereas the NIKKEI opens a tad lower after weak signals.

Whereas, the pairs traders cautious after the Tankan number & trade news. Tankan manufacturing poll, which tracks the steps of Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) essential Tankan quarterly survey, recently fell to the lowest since March 2013 during October.

At the Sino-US trade front, the condition surrounding the round-1 trade deal between the United States and China seems doubtful recently.

Looking ahead, the traders will keep their focus on the United States, and China round-1 phase, and Brexit details for getting fresh hints and clues as well as the trader will carefully observe the 2nd-tier data on the economic calendar. The greenback hit a bullish trend in the wake of the ISM beat. 

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 108.34

S2 108.66

S1 108.82

Pivot Point 108.98

R1 109.14

R2 109.3

R3 109.62

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On the technical side, the USD/JPY currency pair had shown the wrong direction to the buyers of the market during the last 48 hours as you know the pair dropped in 48 hours against the buyer’s expectations. The pair closed above the 200-day M.A. on Tuesday to fall back below the long-term M.A. in the overnight trade. Consider staying bullish above 

108.700 today.

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Gold Heading North for Bullish Retracement – Who’s Up for Buying Trade?

On Wednesday, the yellow metal gold trades bullish, recovering some losses following an almost 2% drop in the previous session. The demand for safe-haven gold seems to pick up again

On Wednesday, the yellow metal gold trades bullish, recovering some losses following an almost 2% drop in the previous session. The demand for safe-haven gold seems to pick up again

On Wednesday, the yellow metal gold trades bullish, recovering some losses following an almost 2% drop in the previous session. The demand for safe-haven gold seems to pick up again as the bullish rally in stock market delayed, and the result of U.S.-China trade discussions seemed doubtful once more.

Gold prices soared 0.1% to $1,485.07 per ounce, and bullish bias seems pretty solid today. Considering the U.S. -China trade war, the market is still experiencing uncertainty, and we still don’t comprehend if there is a deal yet. 

Besides, the global stock markets are trading neutral following a three-day bullish trend as traders extended to see incoming economic figures and awaited new improvements from U.S.-China trade discussions. Consequently, we may see investors taking their funds out from the stock markets and putting it in the safe-haven assets such as gold. 


Gold – XAU/USD – Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance 

1472.82 1501.14

1461.98 1518.62

1433.66 1546.93

Pivot Point 1490.3

Technically, the precious metal gold has formed a Doji /test bar on the 4-hour timeframe, which is suggesting chances of a bullish reversal in gold. The MACD and RSI have started to come out of the oversold zone, and now it’s suggesting chances of a bullish reversal in the market. Continuation of a bullish trend may extend further buy until 1,492 today. Consider taking buying positions above 1,482 and selling positions below 1,492 level. All the best! 

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, November 06– Major Trade Setups – European Data In Focus! 

On Wednesday, the U.S. dollar index is mostly unchanged, trading at 97.936 in early Asian trade, following a surge of 0.37% the previous day. The headlines came that the United

On Wednesday, the U.S. dollar index is mostly unchanged, trading at 97.936 in early Asian trade, following a surge of 0.37% the previous day. The headlines came that the United

On Wednesday, the U.S. dollar index is mostly unchanged, trading at 97.936 in early Asian trade, following a surge of 0.37% the previous day. The headlines came that the United States and China are still on the doubtfull track and so far from reaching even a phase one deal, whereas increasing uncertainty in the trade is China’s intact support for Hong Kong’s hard stand against protestors.

Today, the focus of traders stays on the series of services PMI figures from the Eurozone. 

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair found on the bearish track for the last two days. As of writing, the currency pair is currently trading at 1.1073; the neckline supports double top pattern on the daily chart.

The German data is scheduled to release at 06:00 GMT and expected to show factory orders, a vital impulse for Europe’s largest economy, which dropped for the 3rd consecutive month during September.

Moreover, IHS Markit’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for Germany dropped to 41.7 during September to register the weakest figures since 2009 and 8-straight monthly drop in output. The PMI was at 43.5 in August. A number below 50 indicates contraction.

As we all well aware, the EUR/USD currency pair is already trading on the slippery ground and having charted a bearish trend over the last two days. Therefore, the unexpected weaker factory orders data could allow a possible break below 1.1073.

On the positive note, the EUR currency will likely take buying if the critical data will release better than expected. However, the technical outlook would become bullish above 1.1180.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.0939

S2 1.1016

S1 1.1045

Pivot Point 1.1093

R1 1.1122

R2 1.1169

R3 1.1246

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The direct currency pair EUR/USD exhibited a dramatic selling from 1.1120 to 1.1065 area. Today this level is likely to extend support to the EUR/USD pair. New candles are Doji, which are followed by a strong bearish candle. This suggests that sellers are exhausted, and we may see buying behavior in the market. Consider taking buying positions above 1.1065 today.  

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair hit the bearish track despite increasing hopes for the Tory leader to win the snap election. Notably, probably the reason behind the bearish trend of cable pair is uncertainty surrounding the United States, and China trade deal keeps the U.S. Dollar strength intact. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair currently trading at 1.2880 on the day.

The headlines came that the United States and China are still on the doubtfull track and so far from reaching even a phase one deal, whereas increasing uncertainty in the trade is China’s intact support for Hong Kong’s hard stand against protestors.

As of data, the preliminary figures of the United States Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labour Coast for the 3rd quarter will be under the focus after the JOLTS Job Openings Challenged the U.S. employment optimism on Tuesday.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.277

S2 1.2828

S1 1.2856

Pivot Point 1.2887

R1 1.2915

R2 1.2946

R3 1.3004

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD hasn’t changed much so far as it continues to trade bullish due to the weaker U.S. dollar. The Cable has outraged the previous resistance level of 1.2930. Now the pair is likely to face fresh resistance around 1.3050 area. Consider staying bullish above 1.2941 today.  

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY Currency Pair currently trading at 109.04; the pairs hit the low of 109.00 despite the weak macro data. During the Tokyo session, the USD/JPY currency pair was trading near the 109.13 even after the BOJ minutes keeping easy money policy on the cards.

The final Jibun Bank Japan Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is seen at 49.7 in October from 52.8 in September on a seasonally-adjusted basis. The below-50 figures are the first since September 2016.

Despite the weak data approved by the Bank of Japan easing policy, the pair found at 109.20 and has slipped back to near 109.00, mainly due to the drop in the S&P 500 futures. As of writing, the index futures are representing the 0.15% decline.

Moreover, the USD/JPY currency pair may continue taking hints from the movement in the equities and Treasury yields. As of now, the ten-year yield is trading at 1.84%, representing two-basis-points declines from the session high of 1.86%.

Looking forward, traders will keep their eyes on Japan’s Jibun Bank Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for October. In contrast, few other Federal Reserve policymakers will carefully observe for additional direction during the latter part of the day. Market estimates suggest a soft PMI figure of 50.3 against 52.8 prior.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 108.05

S2 108.55

S1 108.85

Pivot Point 109.05

R1 109.35

R2 109.55

R3 110.05

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY traded bullish, placing a high around 109.200 level. As per the recent technical analysis of the pair, the USD/JPY is facing resistance around 109.20. Below this level, we can expect a continuation of the selling trend until 108.900 and 108.650.

Besides, the MACD and Stochastics are holding in the overbought range, suggesting chances of a bearish trend in the USD/JPY. Consider taking sell positions below 109 today as the immediate target stays at 108.650. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, November 04– Major Trade Setups – Stronger NFP Supports Dollar!

The Dollar Index slipped 0.2% on the day to 97.12 on Friday, down for a fifth straight session. The euro edged up 0.1% to $1.1167 while the British pound was

The Dollar Index slipped 0.2% on the day to 97.12 on Friday, down for a fifth straight session. The euro edged up 0.1% to $1.1167 while the British pound was

The Dollar Index slipped 0.2% on the day to 97.12 on Friday, down for a fifth straight session. The euro edged up 0.1% to $1.1167 while the British pound was little changed at $1.2935. The Markit U.K. Manufacturing PMI bounced to 49.6 in October (48.2 expected) from 48.3 in September.

USD/JPY rebounded 0.2% from a three-week low to 108.19. USD/CAD fell 0.2% to 1.3136. The Markit Canada Manufacturing PMI climbed to 51.2 in October from 51.0 in September.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

  

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair flashing green and found on the recovery track mainly due to increasing optimism regarding the post-December election. As of writing, the cable pair currently trading at 1.2940.

At the time of writing, the GBP/USD pair was traded at 1.2937, up 0.03%, because traders await new ECB head Christine Lagarde’s first official speech, which is scheduled to happen later in the day.

Be it YouGov, Ipsos or Deltapoll suggest a clear lead of the Boris Johnson over the main opposition Labour Party regarding the general election on December 12. However, the United Kingdom Prime Minster Boris Johnson still looks doubtful due to Times mentions that the PM Boris Johnson will remove all fear regarding the no-Brexit deal from the Conservative party manifesto.

Moreover, the announcement came from the U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross during the Sunday that the licenses for the American firm to perform business with the blacklisted Chinese Huawei companies will be given very soon. Apart from this, he said that the United States and China already very delayed with phase one of the trade deal, so the agreement will likely be signed very soon.

As we know, there was a little movement in the risk-on market, possibly due to President Donald Trump did not attend the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Thailand.

Moreover, the market sentiment has been unstable since the start due to the lack of primary data, and the event and Japan market closed as well.

Looking forward, all investors will keep their eyes on the trade and Brexit headlines whereas also keeping the focus on Markit Construction Purchasing Managers Index from the United Kingdom and the United States Facote Orders for September. 

Market consensus supports an upbeat print of 44.00 against 43.3 from the British PMI, whereas also expecting the U.S. statistics to decrease further to -0.3% from -0.1% previous.



Daily Support and Resistance    

S3 1.2855

S2 1.2901

S1 1.292

Pivot Point 1.2946

R1 1.2966

R2 1.2992

R3 1.3037

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD hasn’t changed much so far as it continues to trade bullish due to the weaker U.S. dollar. The Cable has outraged the previous resistance level of 1.2930. Now the pair is likely to face fresh resistance around 1.3050 area. Consider staying bullish above 1.2941 today.  

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair consolidates in the narrow range near the 108.22, and the pair failed to reach on the bullish track of 100-day EMA as the global risk headlines were entirely in the market for the weekend.

However, the USD/JPY currency pair recently got support from the United States, and China trades positive news because the United States President Donald Trump recently hinted that the round-one of a trade deal would be signed in this month near the U.S. 

Moreover, the announcement came from the U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross during the Sunday that the licenses for the American firm to perform business with the blacklisted Chinese Huawei companies will be given very soon. Apart from this, he said that the United States and China already very delayed with phase one of the trade deal, so the agreement will likely be signed very soon.

While the United States’ ten-year treasury yield recently declined to multi-weeks lows mainly due to the United States Federal Reserve Bank, Indonesia and Central Bank of Brazil recently announced the 3rd consecutive rate cut in their benchmark rates.

Such as the markets of japan close today due to culture holiday so that investors will keep their focus on the risk catalysts like the United States and China trade-headlines and political plays regarding the Brexit for fresh impulse.

Notably, the risk tone in the market could keep recent recovery mainly due to the positive sentiment regarding trade deal between the United States and China and also due to receding political uncertainty regarding Brexit. However, any negative activity or headlines could be taken very seriously regarding the market’s uncertainty.

    


Daily Support and Resistance

    

S3 107.33

S2 107.74

S1 107.96

Pivot Point 108.14

R1 108.37

R2 108.55

R3 108.96

 USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY continues to trade bearish with the selling bias due to weakness in the U.S. dollar. The USD/JPY pair broke the bullish channel, which was holding the USD/JPY at 108.800 zones.

Three Black Crows candlestick patterns are suggesting chances of additional selling in the USD/JPY until 107.450 today. On the upper side, resistance is likely to stay at 108.350. Consider taking bearish trades under 108.350 today.  

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair flashing green and presently trading at 1.1170, in the wake of the United States and China trade patch-up certainty. Moreover, the EUR/USD pair could take more buying trends, mainly due to confidence surrounding the United States and China.

Whereas, the Shared currency hit the low of 1.1128 during the United States trading session on Friday due to U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls beats forecasted numbers. No Doubt, the decline was short-lived, and the EUR/USD currency pair closed on the bullish track near 1.1165.

So, the EUR/USD currency pair least resistance level is on the bullish range. Whereas, the pair’s bullish sentiment could be increased due to the United States and China trade optimism and the resulting risk-on in the equities. 

An announcement came from the U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross during the Sunday that the licenses for the American firm to perform business with the blacklisted Chinese Huawei companies will be given very soon. Apart from this, he said that the United States and China already very delayed with phase one of the trade deal, so the agreement will likely be signed very soon.

It should be noted that the Eurozone’s manufacturing powerhouse has got a big hit in the wake of the Sino-US trade war. Therefore, trade certainty between the United States and China could support the German economy and the EUR currency.

As of data, the final Manfutring PMI figures are scheduled to release across the EurozoneEurozone. Moreover, the Eurozone’s Sentix Investor Confidence for November is expected to release at 09:30 GMT, may leave any impact on the currency pair. Across the pond, the ISM-NY Business Conditions Index (Oct) and Factory Orders (Sep) data are scheduled for release. 



Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.1067

S2 1.1111

S1 1.1138

Pivot Point 1.1155

R1 1.1182

R2 1.1199

R3 1.1243

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD has struck below the double top resistance point of 1.1175 and has lately closed series of neutral candles, which are suggesting chances of a bearish bias until the 1.1175 level gets violated. The pair still stays in the buying zone as the MACD, and RSI value is holding above 0 and 50, respectively. Consider staying bullish above 1.1153 to 1.1180 and 1.1220 today. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, October 30– Major Trade Setups – Monetary Policy Decisions Ahead! 

The U.S. Dollar Index kept trading within a tight range on Tuesday, closing down 0.1% to 97.69, as investors await the Fed’s interest rates decision.

The euro gained 0.1% to

The U.S. Dollar Index kept trading within a tight range on Tuesday, closing down 0.1% to 97.69, as investors await the Fed’s interest rates decision.

The euro gained 0.1% to

The U.S. Dollar Index kept trading within a tight range on Tuesday, closing down 0.1% to 97.69, as investors await the Fed’s interest rates decision.

The euro gained 0.1% to $1.1112, while the British pound was flat at $1.2866. The U.K. Parliament finally supported Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s plan for an early election, which would be held on December 12.

USD/JPY fell 0.1% to 108.88.

Meanwhile, USD/CAD advanced 0.3% to 1.3092 amid weakness in oil prices. On the other hand, the Bank of Canada is expected to keep its benchmark rate at 1.75% unchanged later today.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair consolidates in the narrow range near the 1.2865 despite the United Kingdom parliament approving the extension for the December snap elections. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair s currently trading at 1.2863 and has spent a large part of the last 12 hours chipping away at the resistance of the bull flag on the 4-hour chart.

As we all well aware that the market is cautious not only because of key events but the shortage of fresh hints, so in the consequences, the GBP/USD pair is stuck in the tight range during the Asian trading hours.

During the Tuesday, the United Kingdom parliament approved the law for the first December snap eclection since 1932. The bill will likely become law on the weekend.

On the other hand, the breakout could remain difficult or fail mainly if the Federal Reserve delivers the rate cut by the 25 basis-points and give a hint to pause rate cut series, pushing the U.S. Treasury yields and the greenback higher across the board. It should also b noted that the market has already priced in the 25-basis-points easing.

Apart from the Federal Reserve decision, the GBP/USD currency pair could take hints from the U.S. Q3 preliminary GDP and the monthly ADP jobs data.

On the technical side, while 1.3000 and the fresh high near 1.3015 could keep the pair’s near-term upside limited, a bearish break of 1.2800 could take rest on the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 1.2715 ahead of revisiting September high surrounding 1.2580.



Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2661

S2 1.276

S1 1.2813

Pivot Point 1.2859

R1 1.2911

R2 1.2958

R3 1.3056

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD is still trading the same range, mostly trading bullish above 1.2830 range. On Wednesday, the GBP/USD proceeds to trade bullish above 1.2830 major trading levels. 

On the 4-hour chart, the pair has formed Doji patterns, which is weighing on the bullish trend, but the MACD and RSI are proposing bullish preference. Consider taking buying positions over 1.2859 and bearish under the same level ahead of FOMC and Fed rate decision.

 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY closed at 108.974 after placing a high of 109.037 and a low of 108.657. The overall movement for the pair remained Bullish that day. At 4:50 GMT, the Services Producer Price Index (SPPI) from the Bank of Japan was released and remained the same for the year at 0.5%. 

At 17:30 GMT, the International Goods Trade Balance of the United States for September came in as -70.4B against the expectations of -73.5B and supported the U.S. Dollar on Monday. The negative Prelim Wholesale Inventories from the United States for September also supported the U.S. Dollar. It showed a decline to -0.3% from the previous month’s 0.2%.

The robust macroeconomic data from the U.S. at the starting day of the week gave strength to the U.S. Dollar and increased the prices of USD/JPY in Financial Markets.

On Monday, USD/JPY was rallied to 109 after the Positive comments from Trump about the US-China trade deal and increased U.S. Yields. Trump told the reporters on Monday that he was expecting to sign a significant portion of the Phase-one deal ahead of schedule. Although he did not mention the time for signing the part of the deal, the hint of pre-schedule deal signing itself created a big fluctuation in the market.

The overall optimistic mentality from China & U.S. gave hopes to a possible end of the prevailing Trade-war between them. U.S. & China were expected to sign the phase-one deal at the upcoming APEC Summit in Chile, but Trump announced that a portion of that deal would be signed before the Summit.

This state of affairs raised the appetite for riskier assets in the market, and USD/JPY gained traction in this regard and created a Bullish trend for itself after moving in a consolidated range for almost 2-3 previous days. The incoming positive trade headlines increased the U.S. Yields and hence created more demand for USD/JPY.

  


Daily Support and Resistance

S3 108.13

S2 108.52

S1 108.75

Pivot Point 108.9

R1 109.13

R2 109.28

R3 109.66

 USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY surged to test the resistance area of 109.030, but the bullish momentum wasn’t strong enough to retain a bullish trend for a more extended period. The USD/JPY has dropped below the 109.036 area to retest the bullish trendline support at 108.800. Above this, we can expect USD/JPY to continue trading bullish today. 

So let’s keep an eye on 108.800 today to stay bullish above and bearish below the same level to capture quick 30 pips. The USD/JPY may gain support around 108.550 today. 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair consolidates in the narrow range near the 1.1109. The pair were fell from the recent highs near the 1.1180 during the previous session; probably, the pair will hit the high level again if the German inflation crosses the forecast figures, and the Federal Reserve delivers a dovish rate cut at the coming meeting.

On the technical side, the currency pair had created a bullish hammer candlestick during yesterday, making a strong follow-through to Mondays bullish inside day candlestick.

The consecutive bullish candles indicate the recovery from 1.1180 has likely ended up creating a bullish higher low near 1.1073. 

Whereas, the preliminary German consumer price index for October is still unchanged at 0% and fell moderately to 1.1% from 1.2% in annualized terms. 

The EUR/USD currency pair will likely get hints from the German job data, which is scheduled to release at 08:55 GMT. On the other hand, the preliminary U.S. Q3 GDP and the monthly ADP employment figures could leave a slight impact on the EUR pairs before the Federal Reserve rate decision.

The Federal Reserve is expected to deliver the 3rd rate cut by the 25 basis-points during 2019 on Wednesday and gives the hint of pause easing further. Moreover, the hawkish rate cut could be capping the upside in EUR/USD currency pair.

According to the forecast, the market has already priced in the rate cut. So, the EUR/USD currency pair could increase mainly if the Federal Reserve keeps the doors open for delivering another rate cut before the year’s end.

    


Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.1011

S2 1.1056

S1 1.1084

Pivot Point 1.1101

R1 1.1129

R2 1.1147

R3 1.1192

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD jumped off the support point of 1.1065 yesterday. A bullish trendline extended the support level, which is still keeping the EUR/USD upbeat. The pair rose to the retest 1.1100 area. Today, consider staying bullish above 1.1101 until the FOMC and Fed rate decision comes out.

All the best!

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Gold’s Bullish Trendline Breaks Lower – What’s Next?

Gold prices were closed at $1492.540 after placing a high of $1508.2 and a low of $1489.96. The overall trend for Gold remained Bearish at the starting day of the

Gold prices were closed at $1492.540 after placing a high of $1508.2 and a low of $1489.96. The overall trend for Gold remained Bearish at the starting day of the

Gold prices were closed at $1492.540 after placing a high of $1508.2 and a low of $1489.96. The overall trend for Gold remained Bearish at the starting day of the week.

At 17:30 GMT, the International Goods Trade Balance of the United States for September came in as -70.4B against the expectations of -73.5B and supported the US Dollar on Monday. The negative Prelim Wholesale Inventories from the United States for September also helped the US Dollar. It showed a decline to -0.3% from the previous month’s 0.2%.

The robust macroeconomic data from the US at the starting day of the week gave strength to the US Dollar and weighed on Yellow Metal prices in Financial Markets.

The drop in Gold Prices was boosted on Monday after the positive comments from US President, Donald Trump on Trade Deal talks between US & China. Trump told the reporters on Monday that he was expecting to sign a significant portion of the Phase-one deal ahead of schedule. Although he did not mention the time for signing the part of the agreement, the hint of pre-schedule deal signing itself created a large fluctuation in the market.


XAU/USD – Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance 

1,485.65    1,503.9

1,478.72    1,515.22

1,460.47    1,533.47

Pivot Point 1,496.97

Gold has recently violated the bullish trendline, which was extending Gold an excellent support around 1490. Below this, the market is likely to stay bearish below 1490. On the lower side, the additional support stays at 1,481 today. Whereas, the resistance remains at 1,495.

All the best

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

WTI Crude Oil Exhibits a Weekly Gain – Supply Concern Weights!

On Friday, the WTI crude oil prices continue to hold bullish bias maintaining substantial weekly gains as support from a surprise draws in U.S. inventories and possible action from OPEC

On Friday, the WTI crude oil prices continue to hold bullish bias maintaining substantial weekly gains as support from a surprise draws in U.S. inventories and possible action from OPEC

On Friday, the WTI crude oil prices continue to hold bullish bias maintaining substantial weekly gains as support from a surprise draws in U.S. inventories and possible action from OPEC and its allies to increase production cuts burdened broader economic interests.

The strong buying in crude oil was mostly underpinned by the surprise plunge in U.S. stockpile data. The U.S. crude oil inventories fell by about 10 million barrels during the previous week.

Whereas, the officials at the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) remarked to extended supply cut is an option to balance the softer demand outlook in 2020, hence extending another reliable support to the WTI crude oil prices.

Technically, the WTI has violated an asymmetric triangle pattern, which keeps the crude oil prices on hold between 54.75 to 53.50. The violation of this range has pushed crude oil higher towards 56.50 area.

WTI Crude Oil – Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance
55.5 56.59
54.91 57.1
53.82 58.19
Pivot Point 56.01

At the moment, crude oil is facing stiff resistance at 56.50 area. However, the WTI is looking to complete bearish retracement on the 240 mins chart. Crude oil has already completed 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 55.85 area, and below this, further sell-off is expected until 55.50.

Despite the bearish correction, I would suggest looking for a bullish trades above 55.30 level today. All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

USD/JPY Currency Pair Unchanged – Eyes on Brexit Uncertainty!

The USD/JPY currency pair consolidating between the narrow range of 108.29 and 108.48; by the way, the pair hit the high of108.48 so far. The pair dropped from 108.70 to

The USD/JPY currency pair consolidating between the narrow range of 108.29 and 108.48; by the way, the pair hit the high of108.48 so far. The pair dropped from 108.70 to

The USD/JPY currency pair consolidating between the narrow range of 108.29 and 108.48; by the way, the pair hit the high of108.48 so far. The pair dropped from 108.70 to 108.40 on Friday, 

Financial market’s eyes were on the Brexit ending moments, while the Chinese Gross Domestic produce disappointing figures was also a weigh on risk appetite. As well as the stocks were underperforming into the close with the S&P 500 off by 0.4%, although the DAX was down 0.2%, and the FTSE 100 was down 0.4%.

At the Brexit front, the Chinas economy increased at the target rate by 6% in the 3rd-quarter, which boosted the safe-haven demand, whereas the Brexit uncertainty is currently doing the same work.

United Kingdom Parliament voted 322 to 306 in support of Lewtin Amendment to delay Prime Minister Johnson Brexit’s deal with European Union, but the U.K parliament declared an act withholding support until full legislation is passed. So, Prime Minister Boris Johnson requested the European Union for a 3-months delay, but he didn’t sign the letter yet and stating that his plan was still to get approval for the departure deal and leave European Union by 31 October. Notably, the European Union twenty-seven leaders are remained to respond.

On the other hand, the United States’ two-year treasury yields dropped from 1.59% to 1.57%, whereas the ten-year return consolidated sideways between 1.73% and 1.77%. Markets are anticipating 22 basis points of rate cut the 31 October meeting and a terminal rate of 1.21% against 1.88% currently.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 107.8

S2 108.15

S1 108.28

Pivot Point 108.5

R1 108.63

R2 108.85

R3 109.2

Consider staying bullish above 108.450 to target 108.600 and 108.750 today. On the lower side, 108.200 and 108 are likely to be potential targets. All the best! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, October 17 – Major Trade Setups – Philly Fed Index In Focus!

The I.C.E. U.S. Dollar Index slipped 0.1% on the day to 98.31. Later today, the Federal Reserve will release its latest economic report, the Beige Book.

The British Pound resumed

The I.C.E. U.S. Dollar Index slipped 0.1% on the day to 98.31. Later today, the Federal Reserve will release its latest economic report, the Beige Book.

The British Pound resumed

The I.C.E. U.S. Dollar Index slipped 0.1% on the day to 98.31. Later today, the Federal Reserve will release its latest economic report, the Beige Book.

The British Pound resumed its rally amid growing Brexit deal optimism, surging 1.2% to $1.2760, the highest level since May 16. It was reported that the U.K. and European Union negotiators would present a draft Brexit deal to national delegations later today. On the other hand, official data showed that U.K.’s jobless rate rose to 3.9% in the three months to August (3.8% expected). September C.P.I. will be reported later today (+1.8% on-year expected).

The Euro edged up 0.1% to $1.1034. The Z.E.W. German Current Situation Index dropped to -25.3 in October (-23.6 expected, -19.9 in September), the lowest level since April 2010. USD/JPY climbed 0.4% to 108.81.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

XAU/USD– Daily Analysis

the safe-haven metal prices dropped despite the U.S.S. weak retail sales data and hinted the higher possibility of a rate cut from the Federal Reserve.

Data showed retail sales in the United States dropped by 0.3% during September, their highest decline since last November.

According to forecasting, investors are now expecting an 88.7% probability of a 25 basis-points rate cut at the Federal Reserve policy meeting at the end of the month.

Brexit progress still under the eyes. The report came from B.B.C. official that the United Kingdom and the European Union will not declare the deal on Brexit today. News from other sources said that the deal could still be announced at the end of this week.

Fresh U.S.-China tensions due to Hong Kong received some attention this week but failed to boost gold prices today.



Daily Support and Resistance    

S3 1457.17

S2 1471.83

S1 1481.27

Pivot Point 1486.49

R1 1495.93

R2 1501.15

R3 1515.81

XAU/USD– Trading Tips

The precious metal gold hasn’t improved much in the past several days since it succeeded in holding under 1,497 handle. Neutral sentiment appears sturdy enough to hold gold within 1,492 – 1,477 range. 

Traders may retain selling trades under 1,494 area today. In the case of a bullish violation of 1,492, the market may witness gold flying towards 1,497 area.

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair failed to cross the critical resistance level and still hold below the 1.1085/90 level, despite benefiting from the sluggish U.S. data and change in European Central Bank policy maker’s bias. As of writing, the currency pair is currently trading at 1.1077.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index took further disappointment, in terms of September month Retail sales, that sent the pair down to fresh 7-week low on Wednesday.

On the other hand, the policymakers of the European Union continue to struggling to declare a final Brexit deal with the United Kingdom and extended the discussions to Thursday before holding the 2-day European Union summit. The British policymakers didn’t get the support of the Democratic Unionist Party (D.U.P.) so far in the wake of the deal that could be agreed with the European Union.

Risk sentiment in the market is downbeat due to the difficulties between the United States and China trade deal and Brexit uncertainty with the stocks and bonds in Asia.

Whereas the Brexit is the leading cause for the pair movement and the market right now, moreover, the 2nd data from the United States and Federal reserve coming talks will likely entertaining traders.

    


Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.0934

S2 1.0998

S1 1.1036

Pivot Point 1.1061

R1 1.11

R2 1.1124

R3 1.1188

EUR/USD – Trading Tips

The EUR/USD continues trading in the sideways range of 1.1020 – 1.1070. Lately, the pair violated the horizontal resistance level of 1.1050, which is likely to push the EUR/USD pair towards 1.1100 today. 

Taking a look at the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD is rising in an upward channel. The bullish channel is extending support at 1.100, but before this, the previously violated figure of 1.1050 can extend bullish rally until 1.1100. Consider staying bullish above 1.1061 today.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The cable pair consolidating in the narrow range below five-months highs The GBP/USD currency pair hit the highest level of 1.2800 since May from the intraday declines of the 1.2655 area on Wednesday, mainly due to positive Brexit headlines. 

The British Pound was additionally depressed by the report in which said that the technical Brexit discussions have stuck in the obstacle, and the Brexit deal seems impossible until the United Kingdom moves. Meanwhile, the Wednesday disappointment from the new consumer numbers left a little impact on the pair intraday two-way price swings.

On the final notes, the statement came from the French President Macron, that Brexit deal was on the last track, provided substantial relief to the GBP buyers. Moreover, the German Chancellor Angela Market also said that the Brexit discussions are now at the end of the story and gave further support to the GBP.


Daily Support and Resistance

 S3 1.2341

S2 1.2563

S1 1.2691

Pivot Point 1.2785

R1 1.2913

R2 1.3006

R3 1.3228

GBP/USD – Trading Tips

The GBP/USD currency pair raised a little from the daily highs and now looks like that the pair entered in the phase of consolidation. That is seemingly caused by the investors avoiding from putting any further bullish bets due to the crucial European Council Summit, starting from today, which will finally decide the United Kingdom will leave the European Union with a deal or not on October 31.

The GBP/USD is testing the firm resistance market of 1.285 and also have formed bearish candles followed by a strong bullish trend. This can drive bearish movement in the market. Therefore, consider the trend bearish below1.2860 mark, and the GBP/USD can stay bearish until 1.2754 and 1.2736 areas.

All the best!  

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

AUD/USD Flashing Red As US-China Tensions Dominates! 

 

The AUD/USD currency pair flashing red and representing losses for the 3rd consecutive day. It’s mainly due to the United States and China’s political tensions and weaker daily Chinese

 

The AUD/USD currency pair flashing red and representing losses for the 3rd consecutive day. It’s mainly due to the United States and China’s political tensions and weaker daily Chinese

 

The AUD/USD currency pair flashing red and representing losses for the 3rd consecutive day. It’s mainly due to the United States and China’s political tensions and weaker daily Chinese Yaun fix by the Peoples Bank of China.

As of writing, the AUD/USD currency pair is trading at 0.6734, representing 0.20% losses on the day. The pair AUD/USD is flirting with the lower edge of the bear flag on the daily chart.

The United States House of officials approved a bill regarding human rights in Hong Kong on Tuesday, moving the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act of 2019 a step closer to becoming law.

China warned the United States due to interfering in its internal matters and also gave a warning against the United States policy.

Therefore, the risk assets have come under pressure, and the safe havens like the Japanese Yen and gold were found on the bullish track.

AUD/USD Technical Side

On the technical side, the close above below the 0.6737 will confirm a breakdown and create room for a decline to levels below 0.6520. On the way lower, the pair may find support at 0.6671 (Oct. 2 low).


The pair is trading bearish, and it’s very likely to continue its bearish momentum until 0.6700. The MACD and Stochastics are holding in the bearish zone, suggesting odds of further selling in the Aussie.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 0.6712

S2 0.6752

S1 0.6773

Pivot Point 0.6792

R1 0.6812

R2 0.6831

R3 0.6871

Consider staying bearish below 0.6745 to target 0.6720 today. All the best! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Gold’s Safe Haven Demand Fades – Partial Trade War Plays! 

On Monday, the safe-haven metal prices rose but remain below the level of $1500 as the United States and China completed one round of trade meetings, and the United States

On Monday, the safe-haven metal prices rose but remain below the level of $1500 as the United States and China completed one round of trade meetings, and the United States

On Monday, the safe-haven metal prices rose but remain below the level of $1500 as the United States and China completed one round of trade meetings, and the United States planned to delay tariff on Chinese goods this week. Gold contract slipped 0.2% to trade at $1,491.35.

The U.S. President Donald Trump sketched the first round of a deal to settle the protracted Sino-U.S. trade war and halted a vulnerable tariff hike, the most significant step by the two nations in 15 months.

In return for the U.S. decision to delay tariff, China agreed to buy $40 billion and $50 billion in U.S. agricultural goods. More steps will be reached in the second phase, the president said.

The safe-haven metal prices swiftly dropped after the report came that the investors adopted the risky assets and dropped the safe-havens.

Technically, the Fibonacci retracement levels are playing a significant role. As you can see on the 2-hour chart above, the XAU/USD is trading right below the 38.2% retracement. This level used to work as resistance last week, but now, the same level is working as a resistance.

The closing of a 2-hour candle below 1,496 is suggesting bearish bias among traders. On the lower side, gold may find support at 1,486 and 1,480 level today.

Daily Support and Resistance    

S3 1430.45

S2 1459.63

S1 1474.37

Pivot Point 1488.82

R1 1503.56

R2 1518

R3 1547.19

Consider staying bearish below 1,494 areas to target 1,487 and 1,482 today. On the flip side, buying can be seen in over 1,496 areas.

All the best!

Categories
Forex Price Action

An Entry Derived from a Double Bottom

The Double Bottom is one of the strongest bullish reversal patterns that price action traders wait for once they see the price may have found a support zone. On a

The Double Bottom is one of the strongest bullish reversal patterns that price action traders wait for once they see the price may have found a support zone. On a

The Double Bottom is one of the strongest bullish reversal patterns that price action traders wait for once they see the price may have found a support zone. On a strong downtrend, the first bounce does not attract the buyers to go long. On the second bounce, however, it attracts the buyers to start looking for long opportunities. In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of how a Double Bottom offered us an entry.

What do you think about the price action here? A choppy price action where the price gets caught within a horizontal range. It is best to avoid taking entries when the price action is like this. You may have noticed that the price has several bounces on the support and rejections on the resistance. To get a clearer picture, look at the chart below.

The price has a rejection of the resistance and a bounce on the support. The price goes up again; it had a rejection and a bounce on the same level. This means we may get a Double Top or a Double Bottom here. The chances are the same. Thus, we must wait for the price to make the decision.

 

Here it goes. An upside breakout takes place here. A Double Bottom and  Breached Neckline, a perfect buying meadow. Do we start buying from here? No, we must wait for a confirmation. A pullback and another bullish move are needed to go long. See what happens next.

It seems like we may not get an opportunity to trigger an entry here. The price continues to go towards the North. Do not get into a trap. Never jump into a running train. Keep patience. See what happens next.

Here it goes. Finally, the price starts having a correction. Look at the last H4 bearish candle closing obeying the level where the price on minor time frames has bounces. It is time to wait for a bullish reversal candle. Is it going to be the very next candle or do we have to wait longer?

It is the very next candle that signals us that it is the time to trigger a long entry. The candle closes above the consolidation resistance having a tiny upper shadow. A perfect signal candle that the buyers have been waiting for.

The price heads towards the North with good buying pressure. 1:1 Risk and reward is easily achieved here. Such a nice price action this is! I have a question to you though. Do you see any other potential buying opportunity here? If you do, write on the comment box what the price action would be like if it is to offer another long entry. I am looking forward to getting your comments.

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Gold Slips to 61.8% Retracement – Safe Have Demand Fades! 

On Friday, gold prices reversed from a one-week high after a rumor hinted that China needs to reach an agreement with the U.S. to avoid further acceleration of an open-ended

On Friday, gold prices reversed from a one-week high after a rumor hinted that China needs to reach an agreement with the U.S. to avoid further acceleration of an open-ended

On Friday, gold prices reversed from a one-week high after a rumor hinted that China needs to reach an agreement with the U.S. to avoid further acceleration of an open-ended trade. The safe-haven-metal prices slipped due to positive headlines cames regarding the US-China trade war and Brexit.

The stock market traded bullish due to the positive trade news that the United States and China could reach on the positive outcome this week. As a result, the safe-haven gold prices came under pressure. The United States and China may announce a limited trade agreement during this week, avoiding a new increase in trade tension.

The White House stated that the trade talks going unexpectedly well. However, the future positive headlines regarding trade increased the chances of a currency deal this week.

The market is now trading with Risk-off sentiment, shifting all the investment from gold to stock market. Technically, the precious metal gold has dropped from 1499 area to 1479 points amid faded safely have demand.

Earlier gold faced triple top resistance at 1,513 area, which pushed gold prices lower towards 1,479 that marks 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1459.04

S2 1480.2

S1 1492.88

Pivot Point 1501.36

R1 1514.04

R2 1522.52

R3 1543.68

What’s Next?

Gold prices can stay bullish above 1,479 area, and closing of 4-hour candles bove this level could drive buying in gold. 

The RSI and MACD have already entered the oversold zone, suggesting bulls are looming around the corner. 

Gold may find an immediate resistance at 1,487, along with support around 1,479. Violation of 1,479 can lead to gold prices to 1,470 later in the U.S. session. 

All the best! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Gold Trades Ascending Triangle – Brace for a Breakout!

On Wednesday, the precious metal gold prices trade sideways in a narrow trading range of 1,512 – 1500 in the wake of mixed economic events. Moreover, the uncertainties encompassing

On Wednesday, the precious metal gold prices trade sideways in a narrow trading range of 1,512 – 1500 in the wake of mixed economic events. Moreover, the uncertainties encompassing

On Wednesday, the precious metal gold prices trade sideways in a narrow trading range of 1,512 – 1500 in the wake of mixed economic events. Moreover, the uncertainties encompassing the United States and China trade war and dark Brexit headlines depressed investors’ sentiment. The gold futures for December delivery gained 0.5% to $1,511.83 at the start of the European session.

A report came from South China that China stepped back from the high-level trade talks between the United States and China. The report said the Chinese delegation might enter in Washington a day earlier than scheduled.

China also gave warning that they would hit back after the United States blacklisted a list of Chinese tech companies in the wake of China treatment with Muslim minorities, which ultimately threats increased incoming talks between the United States and China.

On the Brexit front, German Chancellor Angela Merkel told Boris Johnson, U.K.’s Prime Minister, that Northern Ireland has to continue being part of the customs union in any deal, which Johnson said has paved the way for a no-deal Brexit.

Gold – Technical Outlook

Technically, the XAU/USD has formed an ascending triangle pattern, which is keeping gold steady below 1,512 resistance level. The ascending triangle pattern is extending support at 1,500 level.
Typically, these ascending triangle patterns break out on the upper side and may extend bullish rally up to 1,534 in a medium run.

Daily Support and Resistance
S3 1459.04
S2 1480.2
S1 1492.88
Pivot Point 1501.36
R1 1514.04
R2 1522.52
R3 1543.68

Consider taking a buying position on the bullish breakout of 1,513 to target 1,525 and 1,530.

All the best!

Categories
Forex Chart Basics

Ideas that can be Blended with Candlestick to Trigger Entries-Part 3

In Part 2, we learned how important a breakout is for taking an entry. Even the strongest reversal candle itself is not enough to create a new trend. In this

In Part 2, we learned how important a breakout is for taking an entry. Even the strongest reversal candle itself is not enough to create a new trend. In this

In Part 2, we learned how important a breakout is for taking an entry. Even the strongest reversal candle itself is not enough to create a new trend. In this article, we are going to learn other steps that we need to maintain for taking an entry in case of engulfing candlestick.

Let us have a look at the chart below.

After producing the engulfing candle,

  1. The price breached through a support level.
  2. The breakout candle looks very strong.

First two equations have been met. Shall we take the entry right now? The answer is “NO”. We must wait for an upward correction/consolidation. A correction/consolidation gives us another level of support/resistance (in this case resistance). It offers a better risk and reward ratio as well as a better winning percentage. Thus, correction/consolidation is considered one of the most vital components of trading.

Let us have a look at how consolidation took place here.

Pay attention to those candles after the breakout. The pair produced one more bearish candle. Many traders may think an opportunity missed here. Look at the very next candle. That came as a Doji Candle followed by a bullish one. Be very careful. The market often keeps having a correction and changes the trend even by making new higher highs. Thus, a bearish reversal candle we must wait for.

We got one and luckily, it was a bearish engulfing candle. Candle Stick Pattern is being used here again to show us selling sign. What do we have to do now?

We have to wait for another breakout. This time we have to flip over to our Trigger Chart. This is an H4 chart. Thus, our trigger chart is H1 Chart. Let us flip over to the H1 Chart.

The price came out with the last candle from the consolidation zone. A Marubozu Bearish Candle made the breakout. A less low spike indicates that the sellers are very confident. Look, Candle Stick Pattern is being used here again. Here we go. This is the point where we trigger out short (sell) entry.

Let us have a look at the chart below how our trade would play.

Wow, it played well. Though it had consolidation on the minor time frames later, however, this should not be our concern. We followed our trading chart’s trend, breakout, consolidation (H4) and the H1 breakout. By setting our Stop Loss and Take Profit, we shall forget the entry. This is another thing of trading called “Set and Forget” that need to be integrated.

In this article, we learned these are the things to be integrated as well.

  1. Consolidation/ Correction on the trading chart.
  2. Reversal candle to be formed on the trading chart.
  3. Flipping over to the trigger chart and waiting for a breakout.

In the next article, we are going to demonstrate an example of how a Morning Star offered us entry with the integration of consolidation, breakout, and breakout candle with a Morning Star. Stay tuned.

Categories
Forex Candlesticks

Ideas that can be Blended with Candlestick to Trigger Entries-Part 1

Candlesticks are considered one of the strongest components to take an entry. However, this is not the only thing that a trader shall consider before taking an entry. An Engulfing

Candlesticks are considered one of the strongest components to take an entry. However, this is not the only thing that a trader shall consider before taking an entry. An Engulfing

Candlesticks are considered one of the strongest components to take an entry. However, this is not the only thing that a trader shall consider before taking an entry. An Engulfing Candle or a Pin Bar is a strong reversal candle. If the price is down-trending and we get a bullish engulfing candle, we may want to go long on the pair. No doubt, a bullish engulfing candle is a strong reversal candle, but there are other factors we must consider before taking an entry.

Let us find more about it from the charts below.

I have chosen a chart which was down-trending and produced a Bullish Pin Bar. The price then changed its direction and headed toward the North. Let us have a look at the chart.

The arrowed candle is one good-looking bullish Pin Bar. A Pin Bar like this attracts the buyers to go long. We see the consequence; the price headed towards the North with good buying pressure. Does this mean whenever we see a Bullish Pin Bar, we go long or vice versa? The answer is no. We must consider other factors such as Support/Resistance zone, Double Top/Bottom, Neckline Breakout, Trend Line breakout, Breakout Candle.

Let us have a look at the chart again.

See where the Pin Bar was formed. It was formed right at a zone where the price had several bounces. Ideally, this is a level where the sellers want to come out with their profit. Thus, a strong bullish reversal candle such as a Bullish Pin Bar shall attract the buyers to concentrate on the chart to go long. Now that we have found a strong support level what else to look for?

The price was down-trending by following a Trend Line. Can you spot that?

Have a look at this.

A down-trending Trend Line can be drawn. Buyers must wait for a breakout there. See the breakout candle. That was a strong bullish candle which was followed by another one. Moreover, the price came back and touched the Trend line after the breakout. Many buyers may have taken their entry there. This is not a bad idea. You may want to go long right after the second candle closes.

However, some buyers may want to go long at the neckline breakout. Have a look at the chart below.

To be very safe, some traders love to set a pending buy order and go long above the neckline level. It is a safer option for sure, but it has some disadvantages as well. We will talk about this later. Meanwhile, concentrate on what we have learned from this article.

  1. Candlestick or Candlestick pattern is to be formed at a value area.
  2. The existent trend is to be collapsed.
  3. Double Bottom or Double Top is to be evident.
  4. Breakout Candle is to be a strong commanding candle.

 

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis Forex Signals

Bullish Gold Heads for 61.8% Retracement – Weaker Dollar In Play! 

On Wednesday, the precious metal gold expanded after softer-than-expected U.S. economic figures which hiked concerns about global economic growth. Alongside this, it also raised chances of additional interest rate reductions

On Wednesday, the precious metal gold expanded after softer-than-expected U.S. economic figures which hiked concerns about global economic growth. Alongside this, it also raised chances of additional interest rate reductions

On Wednesday, the precious metal gold expanded after softer-than-expected U.S. economic figures which hiked concerns about global economic growth. Alongside this, it also raised chances of additional interest rate reductions, pushing traders towards the safe-haven metal.

The precious metal gold is still trading bullish adding 0.3% to trade at $1,483.6. Yesterday, gold slipped dramatically to place two months low at $1,458.50. However, the losses in gold were short-lived as it surged markedly as much as 1% during the late U.S. session.

The U.S. manufacturing activity dropped to a more than a decade low in September as imminent trade tautness pressures on exports. The vulnerable economic report raised global growth anxieties, leading global stock markets to a one-month low and boosting forecasts for further monetary policy easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Gold – Technical Outlook

On the technical front, gold has formed a bullish engulfing candle at 1,480 area, which is suggesting strong bullish bias among traders. On the upper side, gold is likely to meet the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 1,492, but that’s only possible if it manages to crossover the 50% Fibo level of 1,487. 



Gold – Daily Technical Levels

Support    Resistance 

1,463.06    1,491.28

1,446.99    1,503.43

1,418.77    1,531.65

Pivot Point 1,475.21

Gold traders can consider trading bullish above 1,475 level today as the immediate target is likely to be 1,488 and 1,495. Selling can be seen below 1,498 level today. 

All the best!