The AUD/USD failed to extend its overnight bullish bias and remains on the backfoot after returning from the 8-week high the previous day. However, the reason could be traced to China’s weaker than expected inflation data for October, which initially undermined the Australian dollar and contributed to the currency pair losses. Besides this, the reason for the bearish sentiment around the currency pair could also be associated with the U.K. government’s defeat to convince the House of Lords over the necessity to have the rights to edit the Brexit deal by the Tory members.
On the contrary, the hopes of the latest optimism over a potential vaccine for the highly infectious coronavirus disease having earlier boosted the market trading sentiment, which could be regarded as one of the key determinants that help the currency pair to limit its deeper losses. Besides this, the losses in the currency pair were also capped by the fresh optimism of the Australian Prime Minister (PM) Scott Morrison over the Australian economy. Meanwhile, the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, buoyed by the market mixed mood, could also be considered as a major factor that might cap the further downside momentum for the currency pair.
As we already mentioned that the reason for the currency pair bearish bias could be traced to China’s weaker than expected inflation data for October, which initially undermined the Australian dollar and contributed to the currency pair losses. At the data front, China’s headline CPI decreased below 0.8% against forecast to 0.5% YoY, marking the first below 1.0% print since March 2017, whereas PPI reprints -2.1% figures while defying -2.0% market consensus.
Despite the optimism over a potential treatment/vaccine for the highly infectious virus, the market risk sentiment failed to extend its previous day positive performance and remains depressive during the early Asian session on the day amid a combination of factors. Be it the worrisome headlines concerning Brexit or the tension between the US-China, not to forget the coronavirus issues in the U.S., the market trading sentiment has been flashing red since the Asian session started, which ultimately keeps the perceived riskier Australian dollar under pressure. As per the latest report, the U.S. sanctions four Chinese diplomats over the Hong Kong crackdown.
Meanwhile, the reason for the losses in the equity market could also be associated with the U.S. dislikes concerning the European tariffs on goods worth $4 billion, as earlier expressed by the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Robert Lighthizer. Furthermore, the British House of Lords rejected the Tory government’s proposal to override the Brexit treaty, which also weighed on the market trading sentiment and contributed to the currency pair losses.
Across the pond, the prevalent worries over the resurgence of the coronavirus pandemic remain on the card as they could ruin the global economic recovery, which keeps the market trading sentiment under pressure and weakened the perceived riskier Australian dollar. The coronavirus COVID-19 cases continue to climb in Europe, U.K., and the U.S. As per the latest report, the coronavirus (COVID-19) cases crossed over 10 million figures in the U.S. as well as 30 million marks from Europe.
Despite the mixed market sentiment, the broad-based U.S. dollar failed to extend its overnight gains and edged lower on the day mostly due to the heavy optimism over the potential vaccine for the highly infectious coronavirus disease.
On the bullish side, the pharmaceutical giant Pfizer announced Monday that early analysis of its coronavirus vaccine trial suggested the vaccine was robustly effective in preventing COVID-19, which earlier boosted the market trading sentiment and was seen as one of the key factors that capped further downside momentum for the currency pair. However, the coronavirus vaccine hopes got an additional boost after the U.S. Health Official Dr Anthony Fauci said that the vaccine is around the corner while terming Moderna’s vaccine similar to Pfizer’s during an interview with CNN.
At home, Australian Prime Minister (PM) Scott Morrison recently said that the confidence in the economy is recovering, as the country is re-opening from its coronavirus imposed the second lockdown, which ultimately helped the currency pair to limits its deeper losses. In the meantime, the October month data from National Australia Bank (NAB) recorded better than previous predictions but were mostly ignored.
The traders will keep their eyes on U.S. economic calendars, which will highlight the release of the NFIB Small Business Index along with JOLTS Job Openings. Apart from this, the traders will also closely watch the FOMC Member Kaplan and FOMC Member Quarles speeches. In the meantime, the updates surrounding the Brexit trade talks could not lose their importance on the day.
The AUDUSD is consolidating with bullish sentiment at the 0.7283 area, having crossed over an immediate resistance level of 0.7247 level. For the moment, this AUD/USD is working as a support for the AUD/USD pair. On the higher side, resistance stays at 0.7341 and 0.7411 level today. Bullish bias seems strong; let’s consider taking bullish trades today, especially 0.7220. Good luck!