Author: Ali B.

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 03 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Dollar Weakens Over ISM Manufacturing PMI 

The global financial markets are trading the weaker dollar sentiment in the wake of worse than expected ISM manufacturing PMI data. On the news, the Euro gained 0.5% to $1.1079, the largest percentage gain since September 17. The Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (final reading) for November was released at 46.9 (46.6 expected). Similar PMIs for Germany and France were posted at 44.1 (43.8 expected) and at 51.7 (51.6 expected), respectively. While the Markit U.S. 

The global financial markets are trading the weaker dollar sentiment in the wake of worse than expected ISM manufacturing PMI data. On the news, the Euro gained 0.5% to $1.1079, the largest percentage gain since September 17. The Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (final reading) for November was released at 46.9 (46.6 expected). Similar PMIs for Germany and France were posted at 44.1 (43.8 expected) and at 51.7 (51.6 expected), respectively. While the Markit U.S. 

The global financial markets are trading the weaker dollar sentiment in the wake of worse than expected ISM manufacturing PMI data. On the news, the Euro gained 0.5% to $1.1079, the largest percentage gain since September 17. The Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (final reading) for November was released at 46.9 (46.6 expected). Similar PMIs for Germany and France were posted at 44.1 (43.8 expected) and at 51.7 (51.6 expected), respectively. While the Markit U.S. 

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) posted a final reading of 52.6 (52.2 expected and in preliminary reading), the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing PMI declined to 48.1 (49.2 expected) from 48.3 in October. Construction spending declined 0.8% on month in October (+0.4% expected, -0.3% in September).

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

Economic Calendar by TradingView


 

 EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair climbed 0.58% very sharply during the Monday, representing its most significant single-day upward movement since September 17. As of now, the currency pair is currently trading near the 1.1076. Notably, the outlook will likely shift to the bullish track if the currency pair crosses the November 21 figures high of 1.1097. That would confirm a double bottom breakout on the daily chart and create an opportunity for 1.12.

The breakout could be possible if we look at the dismal of the United States data, which was released on Monday. The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index dropped to 48.1% in November from October’s 48.3%, confirming the 4th-straight month of contraction.

At the greenback front, as we know that the U.S. Dollar already shows losses in the wake of the weak data, and the focus will likely shift to the on-going trade tensions; in that case, the breakout will likely remain elusive.

The United States President Donald Trump administration said late Monday it is planning to impose tariffs up to 100% on around $2.4 billion of French goods in return to take revenge on France’s decision to impose a tax on digital services.

Looking forward, the Eurozone producer price index is scheduled to release at 10:00 GMT, and the US ISM-NY Business Conditions Index (Nov) will hit the wires at 14:45 GMT. These data sets rarely have a big impact on the currency markets. Although, the EUR may take hints from a speech by European Central Bank’s (ECB) member Benoir Coeure scheduled at 17:30 GMT.

On the bearish side, the November 29 low of 1.0981 is the level to beat for sellers. At press time, the pair is trading at 1.1075, representing little change on the day.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.0883

S2 1.097

S1 1.1025

Pivot Point 1.1057

R1 1.1112

R2 1.1145

R3 1.1232

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD pair concluded the day over 1.1065, the 38.2% retracement level on 4-hour chart. Weaker ISM manufacturing data from the U.S. economy is driving bearish bias for the EUR/USD pair ahead of NFP data, which is due on Friday. 

The EUR/USD has reached the triple top resistance area of 1.1085, which is keeping the Euro on hold below this area. Although the closing of candles below this level is suggesting chances of a bearish bias, the RSI and MACD value is still in the bullish zone. These may drive more buying in the EUR/USD currency pair. In the case of a bullish breakout of 1.1085, the EUR/USD may lead towards a 1.1120 trading level. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair flashing red and shifted from the recovery track to bearish track mainly due to greenback recovery. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.2940. Moreover. The reason behind the cable pairs pullback could also the recent changes in the United Kingdom politics and careful trading ahead of the United States President Trumps London visit for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization summit.

Tory leader has recently been fired by the opposition or the media, which in turn might have reduced the scope of the Conservatives holding the British rule after the December election.

At the greenback front, the U.S. Dollar was found on the strong bearish track on Monday because the United States President Donald Trump announced a measure that shows the world’s largest economy’s preference for trade protection. Apart from this, the United States and China trade war regarding Hong Kong also leaving pressure on the greenback. Freshly, China announced sanctions over the US Non-Government Organization (NGO).

Looking forward, the United States President Donald Trump will visit London tomorrow for the NATV summit. By the way, traders are not expecting something from this meeting, but the United Kingdoms opposition parties will keep their eyes on the meeting between the United States and United Kingdom leaders to increase their earlier claims that the United Kingdom Prime Minister has plans to sell National Healthcare System to the United States.

On the economic calendar, the final figures of November month U.K. Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) will be watched for fresh directions.

Daily Support and Resistance

    

S3 1.2823

S2 1.2876

S1 1.2908

Pivot Point 1.2929

R1 1.2961

R2 1.2982

R3 1.3035

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The British pound was up for a second session as it edged up 0.1% to $1.2939. The Markit U.K. Manufacturing PMI (final reading) for November came in at 48.9 (48.3 expected). On Tuesday, the GBP/USD is trading with a strong bullish trend as it already has violated the symmetric triangle pattern at $1.2935. 

The symmetric triangle pattern typically breakout on either direction, but the weaker dollar causes a bullish trend in the GBP/USD. For now, the GBP/USD pair may find next resistance around 1.3015 along with immediate support around 1.2970 and 1.2930.  

On the 4-hour timeframe, the RSI and MACD are holding are still signaling bullish bias. Thus, let’s consider taking buying trades above 1.2950 to target 1.3010 today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The currency figures marked the highest losses on Monday, mainly due to headlines from the United States flashed challenges to the global trade system. As well as, another reason behind the pairs bearish trend was downbeat data from the United States.

The United States and China phase-1 deal or steel tariff on South American economies, not to forget possible trade negative measures against the European Union, the United States ran the trade show during the Monday.

Moreover, the US ISM manufacturing numbers stayed in the contraction region for the 4th-consecutive month and increased uncertainties on the strength of the world’s largest economy.

At the data front, the market’s risk aversion hit Wall Street on the 1st-trading day of the month while the United States’ ten-year Treasury yields increased by 4-basis points to 1.82%. However, the latest figures seem to change with the S&P 500 Futures be quietly on the positive side with the U.S. government bonds on the waiting mood for fresh directions.

The United States President Donal Trump continues his hate factor for the Federal Reserve monetary policy, as Trump said that the Federal Reserve should lower rate and loosen, making us competitive with other countries, and manufacturing will SOAR. The greenback is very strong as compared to others. Whereas the Federal Reserve policymakers are on the blackout session, negative data from the United States keep decreasing the chances of any monetary policy stabilization due to conflicting comments from the United States President Donald Trump.

Additionally, a repeat of the November news that the Japan government is considering 25 Trillion Japanese yen (JPY) economic stimulus package, as per the NHK, recently crossed the wires while supporting the pair.

Daily Support and Resistance

    

S3 107.65

S2 108.42

S1 108.7

Pivot Point 109.2

R1 109.48

R2 109.98

R3 110.76

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY currency pair flashing green and hit the bullish level of 109.19 from the 5-day low despite the broad risk-off sentiment. As of writing, the pair is consolidating in the range between the 108.95 – 109.20.

On the technical front, the USD/JPY has shown a dramatic dip until 108.950, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. As we can see in the chart above, the pair has violated the bullish channel, which was supporting the safe-haven pair around 109.350. 

At the moment, the USD/JPY is trading with a strong bearish bias, and we may see a bullish reversal in USD/JPY somewhere around 108.800 level today. Below this, the pair can go after 108.500 level.

All the best!

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Forex Market Analysis

Gold’s Descending Triangle Pattern – U.S. 0 China Trade Talk In Action! 

On Monday, gold prices fell after better-than-expected manufacturing figures from China soothed concerns of a slowdown in global growth while deficit-ridden auto catalyst metal rose to an all-time high.

Trump’s

On Monday, gold prices fell after better-than-expected manufacturing figures from China soothed concerns of a slowdown in global growth while deficit-ridden auto catalyst metal rose to an all-time high.

Trump’s

On Monday, gold prices fell after better-than-expected manufacturing figures from China soothed concerns of a slowdown in global growth while deficit-ridden auto catalyst metal rose to an all-time high.

Trump’s approval to pass the Hong Kong Human Rights & Democracy Act as a law could hurt trade relations because the Chinese Government has warned firm countermeasures against such action by the U.S. 

Ongoing trade talks between both economies were going positively, and the phase-one deal was expected to be signed before December 15. 

If the deal is not approved by then, the fresh tariff from the U.S. on Chinese goods would be imposed, and it would hurt the U.S. economy more than the previous tariff hike. Trump would like to avoid such a decision when he is so eager to get China to buy U.S. soybeans, pork, and other farm products, which is a part of the Phase-one deal.


Gold – XAU/USD – Daily Technical Levels

Support      Resistance 

1,455.89      1,469.43

1,447.72      1,474.8

1,434.18      1,488.34

Pivot Point 1,461.26

Speaking of the technical aspects, gold is stuck in a descending triangle pattern, which is keeping it supported around 1,450. Although gold has closed three black crows on the 4-hour chart, which typically signals a bearish trend, the investors are still looking for a reason to enter the market. The ISM manufacturing PMI may work as a catalyst to drive price action. 

On the lower side, a bearish breakout of 1,452 can fell to 1,442 while on the upper side, gold may find resistance around 1,464 today. Let’s look for sell trades below 1,462 today. Good luck! 

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 02 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – ISM Manufacturing PMI In Focus! 

The U.S. Dollar Index rose edged down to 98.27 from 98.33 during the previous week. The euro edged up 0.1% to $1.1015. Official data showed that November consumer prices in

The U.S. Dollar Index rose edged down to 98.27 from 98.33 during the previous week. The euro edged up 0.1% to $1.1015. Official data showed that November consumer prices in

The U.S. Dollar Index rose edged down to 98.27 from 98.33 during the previous week. The euro edged up 0.1% to $1.1015. Official data showed that November consumer prices in the eurozone increased 1.0% on year in November (+0.9% expected), and October jobless rate was at 7.5% (as expected, 7.6% in September). 

The U.S. stocks closed lower while ending November with the most significant monthly gain since June. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 112 points (-0.4%) to 28051, the S&P 500 lost 12 points (-0.4%) to 3140, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 39 points (-0.5%) to 8665.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair hit the bearish track and continue to flashing red despite the positive China manufacturing data. As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair currently trading near the 1.1018, representing slight declines on the day and consolidates in the range of 1.1015-1.1028.

The Caixin PMI, which surveys the small and medium-sized export-oriented units, increased to 51.8 in November from October’s 51.7 to record the fastest expansion in 3-3-years. While the official PMI released on Saturday also printed well above 50 to mark the first expansion in 13 months.

As in result, the risky assets getting bids due to data. For example, Japan’s Nikkei surged by1% in Asia, and the NZD/USD pair rose to a one-month high. Even so, the EUR currency is struggling.

Looking ahead, the EUR/USD currency pair may take bids if the European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde’s pushes European leaders to boost spending, indirectly hinting low chances of more monetary stimulus in the foreseeable future. Notably, the Lagarde’s testimony is scheduled to happen at 14:00 GMT.

The market’s focus will shift to the U.S. data on the North American session. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov), due at 15:00 GMT, is forecasted to print at 49.4 against 48.3 in October. An above-50 print may put pressure on EUR/USD.

The final German and Eurozone PMI numbers scheduled to release in Europe may not have a big impact, unless they carry a significant upward or downward revisions to the preliminary figures released on November 22.

    

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.0915
  • S2 1.0962
  • S1 1.099

Pivot Point 1.1009

  • R1 1.1037
  • R2 1.1056
  • R3 1.1103

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

Traders are strengthening the downside bias amid positive NFP forecast, which is due to release later this week. The EUR/USD disrupted the tight trading range of 1.1016 – 1.0992 to trade near the 1.1020 trading level. 

At the moment, the EUR/USD’s now consolidating in a narrow trading range of 1.1030 – 1.1015. A bullish breakout of 1.1030 can lead the EUR/USD prices towards 1.1055, and on the lower side, 1.0985 endures the final support.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair flashing red and representing 0.10% losses. As of writing, the cable pair is currently trading at 1.2915 and consolidates in the narrow range between 1.29107 and 1.2918 at the start of the week, mainly due to series of United Kingdom election polls which doing limited to affect a leading Tory sentiment.

The GBP currency was seen stronger in the recent times in the wake of Brexit Party promising not to stand against the Tories in voters where there is a sitting Tory MP, underpinning the probability of a Tory majority after the quick threat of no-deal Brexit.

The investors are now keeping their eyes on the election outcomes. Still, the market will likely hold the risks of talks between the United Kingdom and the European Union, which may cover any quick bullish move in the GBP on a Tory victory.

At the Sino-US front, doubts over the phase-one deal between the United States (U.S.) and China are weighing on the greenback, whereas recently, actual activity data from China adds strength to the risk sentiment.

Looking forward, the market will keep their eyes on the U.S. main event in the U.S. nonfarm payroll jobs report. We expect employees to increase by 200k in November, after the above-consensus 128k October print.

All traders will keep their eyes on the trade and political headlines November month Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data from the U.S., and the U.K. will likely offer intermediate moves. Including, U.K. Manufacturing PMI, anticipated 48.3, will be the first to observe ahead of the U.S. Markit and ISM activity indices. 

Estimates suggest the Markit PMI remain unchanged at 52.2, but ISM Manufacturing PMI may rise to 49.9 from 45.5.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2784
  • S2 1.285
  • S1 1.2889

Pivot Point 1.2917

  • R1 1.2955
  • R2 1.2984
  • R3 1.3051

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The cable pair is currently trading at 1.2915 and consolidates in the narrow range between 1.29107 and 1.2918 at the origin of the week, mainly due to series of United Kingdom election polls which doing limited to affect a leading Tory sentiment.

On Friday, the GBP/USD continues to above the suggested support level of 1.2880. The pair has formed neutral candles above this level as traders are waiting for a fundamental reason to get in the market. 

On the 2-hour timeframe, the RSI and MACD are holding near 50 and 0, suggesting neutral bias among investors. Therefore, we may see a slightly bearish trend in the GBP/USD below 1.29400 area until a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.2900. Consider staying bullish above 1.2900 today to target 1.2945/65. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair hit the 6-months high 109.70; this is the highest level since May 30, by the way, the safe-haven currency Japanese Yen came under pressure after the upbeat China manufacturing data and uptick in the United States equity index futures.

As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 109.70, the highest level since May 30, and the S&P 500 futures are reporting a 0.30% rise.

As we all well aware that President Donald Trump signed the Hong Kong Democracy Bill. China criticized the move because interference into its internal matters regarding Hong Kong, China warned to take revenge.

However, China did not take any revenge so far, and that may support the risk assets. Moreover, the data released over the weekend showed China’s manufacturing sector unexpectedly increased in November. The purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for China’s manufacturing sector inched up to 50.2 in November from 49.3 in October. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.

At the greenback front, the U.S. dollar stayed little changed on Monday in Asia after the release of reliable economic data in the U.S. the previous week. The U.S. Dollar Index traded marginally higher early in the day, up 0.03% to 98.20 by 8:41 PM ET (01:40 GMT).

Looking forward, the initial indications of a turnaround in the world’s 2nd-largest economy support further upside in the risk assets and the USD/JPY pair. The Caixin China manufacturing PMI, which focuses on the small and medium-sized export-oriented units, printed above the estimate of 51.5 soon before press time.

Meanwhile, the bullish movement will likely weaken if the focus shifts to the negative news regarding the United States and China trade talks because the report came earlier today that the optimism between the United States and China decreased about the phase-one deal.

    

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 108.98
  • S2 109.25
  • S1 109.38

Pivot Point 109.53

  • R1 109.65
  • R2 109.8
  • R3 110.07

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is consolidating at 109.425, and it has just begun to trade in the overbought zone as the RSI and MACD are stuck in the overbought territory. On the 4 hour graph, the USD/JPY has created a Doji and Spinning top, which typically implies chances neutral bias in the USD/JPY. On the downside, the USD/JPY may drop towards 38.2% Fibonacci retracement until 109.150. Besides Fibonacci, the bullish channel is also supporting the USD/JPY at the same level. So look for taking a sell trade below 109.700 today to target 109.200 and buying above 109.300 to target 109.700. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Gold Choppy Trend Continues – What Next to Expect?

On Friday, the precious metal gold trade sideways in the wake of mixed fundamentals. Despite this, gold is still on track to post its most vital monthly drop in 3

On Friday, the precious metal gold trade sideways in the wake of mixed fundamentals. Despite this, gold is still on track to post its most vital monthly drop in 3

On Friday, the precious metal gold trade sideways in the wake of mixed fundamentals. Despite this, gold is still on track to post its most vital monthly drop in 3 years, as traders solicited evidence on the U.S.-China trade progress after the United States withdrew anti-government protesters in Hong Kong.

Earlier, the U.S. Section of Hong Kong law got criticized by China and Hong Kong as well. But we noticed only a limited reaction due to the thanksgiving day holiday in the United States. 

Furthermore, the criticism from the China State Council that Beijing will adequately resolve the trade disputes, and they will step up punishment for intellectual property infringement, seems to have played their role, keeping the safe-haven demand diminished.  

XAU/USD – Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance 

1454.29    1459.19

1451.77    1461.58

1446.86    1466.48

Pivot Point 1456.67

Gold continues to trade within a narrow trading range of 1,463 – 1,451 as investors await for a fundamental reason to determine further trends in the market. In the meantime, the XAU/USD is likely to continue trading in the same trading range. 

On the downside, gold is presumed to find support at 1,452 area, and the violation of this could initiate further selling unto 1,442. The MACD is still holding in the buying zone, but the latest histograms are smaller than the previous one, signaling chances of a further bearish trend. 

Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, November 29 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Brace for European Inflation Report! 

The U.S. dollar steadied against most major currencies on Thanksgiving day, with the ICE Dollar Index closing relatively unchanged on the day at 98.32. The euro edged up 0.1% to

The U.S. dollar steadied against most major currencies on Thanksgiving day, with the ICE Dollar Index closing relatively unchanged on the day at 98.32. The euro edged up 0.1% to

The U.S. dollar steadied against most major currencies on Thanksgiving day, with the ICE Dollar Index closing relatively unchanged on the day at 98.32. The euro edged up 0.1% to $1.1012. Official data showed that the eurozone’s Economic Confidence Index rose to 101.3 in November (101.0 expected) from 100.8 in October. Later today, November CPI (+0.9% on-year expected) and October jobless rate (steady at 7.5% expected) will be reported.

The German Federal Statistical Office will release November jobless rate (steady at 5.0% expected) and October retail sales (+0.2% on month expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair found on the bearish track and representing 1.27 decline on the monthly opening rate of 1.1151. As of writing, the currency pair is trading near 1.10.

The EUR/USD currency pair is moving bearish at the end of November, having surged 2.33% during October. So, that was the most significant monthly increase since January 2018. However, the currency pair has come under pressure, pouring cold water over the optimism generated by October’s 2.3% gain.

On the other hand, Consumer spending, as represented by retail sales, is anticipated to have increased at an annualized rate of 1.1% in October, having increased by 3.4% in the previous month. The retail sales data is scheduled to release at 07:00 GMT.

Meanwhile, the data due at 08:55 GMT is expected to show the economy added 5,000 jobs in November, and the unemployment rate continued steady at 5%. The Post-German data, the focus would shift to the Eurozone consumer price index and the jobless rate, scheduled for release at 10:00 GMT. 

The EUR currency may come under the selling pressure and hit the bearish track if the German jobs data disappoint expectation. As we know, Germany is already facing bearish pressure from the external sector. If the labor market cools sharply, the consumers will likely shift on the purse saving mood, leading to a deeper economic recession.

On the other side, the EUR/USD currency pair will likely find love if the key data crosses the forecast figures. Notably, the gains could be short-lived due to the United States and China trade tensions. As we all well aware that President Donald Trump signed the Hong Kong Democracy Bill earlier this week, irritating China. That could hurt the trade matters.

Daily Support and Resistance

    

  • S3 1.0958
  • S2 1.098
  • S1 1.099

Pivot Point 1.1002

  • R1 1.1012
  • R2 1.1024
  • R3 1.1046

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR currency outlined a sideways trading pattern, which is signifying neutral bias among traders, and that’s mostly due to the limited volatility ahead of the weekend. However, traders are strengthening the downside bias put forward by the lower high at 1.1097 established on November 21.  

The 14-day relative strength index is proposing bullish bias, but it’s directing lower now as it’s valued may cross below 50. Let’s look for bearish trades below 1.1020 level today to target 1.1099 and 1.0960.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair is consolidating in the narrow range of 1.2910-1.2917. The pair got support from the polls showing continued fame of the ruling Conservative Party. Moreover, probably the reason behind the lack of more strength is the stepping back of the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnsons from certain debates.

After the YouGov’s poll of a clear lead of the ruling Tory Party over the opposition Labour Party, accusations on the United Kingdom Prime Minster raised as he stepped back from the debate on channel4 and is yet to confirm an interview with BBC’s Andrew Neil, as per the Independent. Whereas the opposition leaders have started using rude words and media support the reaction, probably due to this, they will lose their fame ere the December snap election.

The Conservative’s boss was recently criticized by the opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn regarding selling the National Healthcare Systems (NHS) to the United States, citing leaked government papers. The decreasing chances of another strong poll supporting the Troy leadership and the greenback recovery are the major catalyst to drive trading volume in the GBP/USD pair.

So far, the market risk sentiment is still directionless, with the United States’ ten-year Treasury yields taking rounds to 1.77% with Asian equities flashing mixed signals.

Looking ahead, the half-day trading session in the U.S. and shortage of data and events will likely keep the market unactive. However, political and trade headlines will entertain the traders.

    

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2698
  • S2 1.2794
  • S1 1.2857

Pivot Point 1.2891

  • R1 1.2954
  • R2 1.2987
  • R3 1.3083

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

On Friday, the GBP/USD continues to above the suggested support level of 1.2880. The pair has formed neutral candles above this level as traders are waiting for a fundamental reason to get in the market. 

On the 2-hour timeframe, the RSI and MACD are holding near 50 and 0, suggesting neutral bias among investors. Therefore, we may see a slightly bearish trend in the GBP/USD below 1.29400 area until a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.2900. Consider staying bullish above 1.2900 today to target 1.2945/65. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

 The USD/JPY currency pair is flashing red and hit the session low near the 109.46, having hit the high of 109.60 three hours ago. As of writing, the currency pair is consolidating in the day’s range of 109.47-109.59.

The USD/JPY currency pair is stepping back, possibly following the slow descent of the S&P 50 futures. The index futures were down 0.10% in early Asia and are currently reporting a 0.26 decline. Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) Governor Kuroda was out on the wires a few minutes before press time asking for structural changes. Kuroda told Parliament that structural reforms must accompany fiscal and monetary stimulus measures to heighten the economy’s long-term growth potential and added that the central bank’s ultra-loose policy is aimed at boosting inflation to 2% and not monetize debt. 

Governor Kuroda’s comments are not surprising because the central bank has little capacity to stimulate, having run an expansionary monetary policy for more than 6-years. 

Looking forward, the Japanese Yen will likely continue to gain ground, because equities may trade risk-averse in the wake of the decision by President Trump to sign the Hong Kong Democracy Bill. 


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 108.42
  • S2 108.92
  • S1 109.24

Pivot Point 109.42

  • R1 109.74
  • R2 109.93
  • R3 110.43

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is consolidating at 109.425, and it has just begun to trade in the overbought zone as the RSI and MACD are stuck in the overbought territory. On the 4 hour graph, the USD/JPY has created a Doji and Spinning top, which typically implies chances neutral bias in the USD/JPY.  

On the downside, the USD/JPY may drop towards 38.2% Fibonacci retracement until 109.150. Besides Fibonacci, the bullish channel is also supporting the USD/JPY at the same level. So look for taking a sell trade below 109.700 today to target 109.200 and buying above 109.300 to target 109.700. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Gold Trade Sideways – Volatility Lacks Amid Thanksgiving!

On Thursday, the precious metal gold traded in a tight $5 range trading range as investors assessed the impact of U.S. support of Hong Kong rebels on its trade agreements

On Thursday, the precious metal gold traded in a tight $5 range trading range as investors assessed the impact of U.S. support of Hong Kong rebels on its trade agreements

On Thursday, the precious metal gold traded in a tight $5 range trading range as investors assessed the impact of U.S. support of Hong Kong rebels on its trade agreements with China.

Demand for safe-haven assets like gold, silver, and Japanese yen increased as the U.S. President Trump signed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act in early Asia, reaffirming support for Hong Kong’s pro-democracy protests after the majority of the City’s districts turned in favor of pro-democracy candidates with record voter turnout this week.

While China has frequently warned the U.S. administration not to interference in their personal affairs, therefore, President Trump’s move will likely hurt the relationship with China at a time when both sides are trying to reach a “phase one” trade deal.

On the positive side, the United States and China trade deal nearness and the optimism surrounding the United Kingdom December election result supported the market’s riskier assets and moved the greenback.

Besides, the greenback strength was robust U.S. data that decreased market speculations that the excellent time for the world’s largest economy will soon be over.

The traders will have a few data to watch due to the United States holiday regarding thanksgiving data; it means that the trade and political headlines will keep the market active.



Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 0.6746
  • S2 0.6762
  • S1 0.6769

Pivot Point 0.6779

  • R1 0.6786
  • R2 0.6796
  • R3 0.6813

Choppy dealing in gold remains as the yellow metal still maintains the full range of 1,464 – 1,452. Due to thanksgiving holiday today, we may not see much moves in the market. We can try to cap above 1,452 as below this gold can find next support nearby 1,447. The overall trend is likely to be mixed today.

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, November 28 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Happy Thanksgiving! 

The U.S. dollar kept trading within a tight range on Wednesday, amid thin trading before the Thanksgiving holiday. The ICE Dollar Index closed broadly flat on the day at 98.31.

The U.S. dollar kept trading within a tight range on Wednesday, amid thin trading before the Thanksgiving holiday. The ICE Dollar Index closed broadly flat on the day at 98.31.

The U.S. dollar kept trading within a tight range on Wednesday, amid thin trading before the Thanksgiving holiday. The ICE Dollar Index closed broadly flat on the day at 98.31.

The British pound rose 0.5% to $1.2930. A U.K. election poll showed that the Conservative would retain a majority of seats in the parliament. The euro fell 0.1% to $1.1005, while USD/JPY gained 0.3% to 109.38. 

The Federal Reserve released the Beige Book, which stated that economic activity expanded modestly, the outlook remains positive, and growth is expected to continue into next year. Besides, theU.S. economic data, third-quarter GDP growth was revised to 2.1% (1.9% expected and previously estimated), and durable goods orders increased 0.6% on month in October (-0.9% estimated).

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair consolidates on the uncertain track and may face a hard time defending crucial support until the German inflation data blows past predictions, weakening dovish ECB expectations. Today, the German inflation data is scheduled to release at 13:00 GMT.

As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair seems set for a possible break below 1.0994, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from 1.0879 to 1.1179.

At the USD front, the greenback got the support mainly due to the 3rd-quarter gross domestic product was updated higher to 2.1% from 1.9%, in the wake of positive consumer spending data. The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, soared higher to 2.1% from 1.9% in the 2nd-quarter. The inflation gauge exceeded an expectation of 1.7%.

It must be noted that the upbeat data of the U.S. may push the greenback further high on the day. Traders will be likely to sell dollars over increases uncertainty as President Trump’s decision to sign the Hong Kong Democratic Bill has irritated the Dragon Nation, and fears have increased regarding side effects on the trade deal. This is evident from the 0.25% drop in the S&P 500 futures seen at press time.

Looking forward, the breakdown will likely remain elusive manly if the preliminary German consumer price index for November crosses expectations by a considerable range, creating the opportunity for the European Central Bank head Christine Lagarde to maintain her neutral-to-hawkish stance for some time.

On the flip side, the CPI is anticipated to drop 0.6% month-on-month in November, having increased by 0.1% in October. The EUR/USD currency pair may plan a notable bounce from $1.10 if the inflation figure crosses estimates by a significant margin.


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.0958
  • S2 1.098
  • S1 1.099

Pivot Point 1.1002

  • R1 1.1012
  • R2 1.1024
  • R3 1.1046

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

On the technical side, the EUR currency charted a bearish engulfing candle yesterday, strengthening the downside bias put forward by the lower high at 1.1097 established on November 21. On the technical side, indicating the route of least resistance is to the bearish. The 14-day relative strength index is suggesting selling conditions with as the RSI value holds below 50, and the daily MACD histogram is again printing deeper bars below the zero line, a sign of strengthening bearish momentum. Let’s look for staying bullish above or bearish below 1.1000 level today to target 1.1055 on the upper side and 1.0985 on the lower side. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair flashing green and hit the 4-day high to 1.2920, mainly due to the ruling Tory party, which will keep the helm of the United Kingdom with a vast majority. The YouGov Poll on the MRP model is highly appreciated for its forecasts regarding the United Kingdom’s result since they forecasted a suspended parliament in 2017. 

The poll suggests Conservatives gain 359 seats against the opposition Labour Party’s 211 seat estimate. Apart from this, It also shows that 43% of vote share will be allocated to the ruling Tories against Jeremy Corbyn-led Labour Party’s 32% expected share, which in turn indicates an 11-point lead of the Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson led Conservatives over the Labour Party.

On the other hand, the GBP/USD currency pair is found under pressure during the Asian session today. The GBP currency has initially fallen mainly due to expectations that the Tory announcement might leave a negative impact on the ruling party popularity ahead of the December Snap election. But now the GBP/USD is likely to find enough support below at the 1.2900 regions to bounce yet again. 

A report came from the Guardian’s journalist Owen Jones that the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservatives have a significant majority over the Labour Party in the YouGov’s MRP poll.

Looking forward, the traders will just have limited data to trade as the United States enjoys thanksgiving holiday. Therefore, trade and political headlines will keep the market active.


Daily Support and Resistance

    

  • S3 1.2698
  • S2 1.2794
  • S1 1.2857

Pivot Point 1.2891

  • R1 1.2954
  • R2 1.2987
  • R3 1.3083

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

On Thursday, the GBP/USD has hit our previously suggested target level of 1.2880; in fact, it soared further to trade around 1.2940 level. Currently, the pair has entered the overbought zone, as we can see on the 2-hour timeframe, the RSI and MACD are holding near 70 suggesting chances of a bearish correction.

Therefore, we may see a slightly bearish trend in the GBP/USD below 1.29400 area until a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.2900. Consider staying bullish above 1.2900 today to target 1.2945/65. 

 USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair flashing red and dropped by 0.13% to 109.38, mainly due to fears regarding United States President Donald Trump’s decision to sign the Hong Kong bill. It may irritate China and could drop a negative impact on the trade talks. 

As a result, the safe-haven currency Japanese Yen has picked up buying. The USD/JPY pair is currently trading at 109.38, representing a 0.13% drop on the day. The pair has dropped more than 20 pips in the last 90 minutes or so. 

The U.S. President Trump signed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act in early Asia, reaffirming support for Hong Kong’s pro-democracy protests after the majority of the City’s districts turned in favor of pro-democracy candidates with record voter turnout this week.

It must be noted that China has repeatedly warned the U.S. administration not to interfere in their internal affairs. Therefore, President Trump’s move will likely hurt the relationship with China at a time when both sides are trying to reach a “phase one” trade deal.

Looking forward, deeper declines could be in the offing if the Asian and European equities turn risk-averse concerning the latest political developments. 

At the USD front, the greenback found on the buying track during the United States trading hours on Wednesday, mainly due to official data, which showed the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) increased 2.1% in the 3rd-quarter, driven by strong consumer spending. Notably, the pair hit a 6-month high of 109.61 before dropping on Trump’s decision to sign Hong Kong Democracy bill. 

Daily Support and Resistance

    

  • S3 108.42
  • S2 108.92
  • S1 109.24

Pivot Point 109.42

  • R1 109.74
  • R2 109.93
  • R3 110.43

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading at 109.425, and it has just entered the overbought zone as the RSI and MACD are stuck in the overbought territory. On the 4 hour chart, the USD/JPY has formed a tweezers top, which typically suggests chances of a bearish bias trend in the USD/JPY. 

On the downside, the USD/JPY may drop towards 38.2% Fibonacci retracement until 109.150. Besides Fibonacci, the bullish channel is also supporting the USD/JPY at the same level. So consider taking a sell trade below 109.500 today to target 109.200. 

All the best!

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Forex Market Analysis

Descending Triangle In AUD/USD – Brace to Trade Breakout! 

The AUD/USD currency pair sidelined near the 0.6788, despite the fifth-consecutive quarterly drop in Australian Construction Work, having hit the low of 0.6782 during the European session. 

The bearish trend

The AUD/USD currency pair sidelined near the 0.6788, despite the fifth-consecutive quarterly drop in Australian Construction Work, having hit the low of 0.6782 during the European session. 

The bearish trend

The AUD/USD currency pair sidelined near the 0.6788, despite the fifth-consecutive quarterly drop in Australian Construction Work, having hit the low of 0.6782 during the European session. 

The bearish trend in Aussie came after the Westpac Banking Corp announced on Wednesday in its forecast that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to lower interest rates twice until it reaches 0.25% by June 2020. Later they will go for launching quantitative easing (Q.E.), 

The Construction figures for the (Q3) appeared in at -0.4% – the fifth straight quarterly drop. The numbers add to the gross domestic product, which will be released next week. However, the actual figure was unexpectedly better than the 1% decline. 

On the other hand, the United States President Donald Trump continues its hopes of a phase-one deal with China even after the media releases from Beijing that blamed the U.S. for unfair behavior. Moreover, the greenback stays on the bullish track across the board because investors still trust on the U.S. dollar during the risk-on sentiment.

Thus, the stronger dollar and weaker Aussie is causing bearish trends in the AUD/USD pair. 

Technically, the AUD/USD pair is trading sideways within a narrow trading range of 0.6800 – 0.6765. That’s the descending triangle pattern, which is keeping the pair in a consolidation. Mostly, this kind of pattern violates on the lower side, and if this happens, we may see AUD/USD prices going towards 0.6735.


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 0.6718
  • S2 0.675
  • S1 0.6763
  • Pivot Point 0.6781
  • R1 0.6795
  • R2 0.6813
  • R3 0.6844

Today, consider taking sell positions below 0.6800 until 0.6765, and then if 0.6765 also gets violated, we will have a chance to add further selling until 0.6735. All the best! 

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, November 27 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – U.S. GDP In Play! 

The U.S. Dollar Index was little changed on Tuesday, closing relatively flat on the day at 98.25. The euro gained 0.1% to $1.1022. The German GfK Consumer Confidence Index edged

The U.S. Dollar Index was little changed on Tuesday, closing relatively flat on the day at 98.25. The euro gained 0.1% to $1.1022. The German GfK Consumer Confidence Index edged

The U.S. Dollar Index was little changed on Tuesday, closing relatively flat on the day at 98.25. The euro gained 0.1% to $1.1022. The German GfK Consumer Confidence Index edged up to 9.7 in December (9.6 expected and in November).

On the fundamental’s front, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index plunged to 125.5 in November (127.0 expected) from 126.1 in October. Wholesale inventories rose 0.2% on month in October (as expected), while new home sales fell to an annualized rate of 733,000 units (705,000 units estimated) from 738,000 units in September. Let’s took at today’s trade setups. 

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair flashing red and hit the record lows to trade below the seven months lows. At the moment, the currency pair is currently trading at 1.1015.

The reason behind decreased uncertainty could be the recent progress in the United States and China trade deal, which is likely to resolve issues. 

For now, the focus is likely to be on the U.S. data Q3 GDP, Personal Spending (Oct), Durable Goods Orders (Oct), Weekly Jobless Claims. The 3rd-quarter annualized GDP is forecasted to be unchanged at 1.9%. The economy increased by 2% and 3.1% in the 2nd and the 1st quarter as well.

With that being said, a prolonged period of low volatility often paves the way for a big move on either side. The level of uncertainty will drop if both nations reach a trade agreement. This ultimately can drive a significant drop in the common currency against the U.S. dollar. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.0959
  • S2 1.0988
  • S1 1.1001
  • Pivot Point 1.1017
  • R1 1.103
  • R2 1.1045
  • R3 1.1074

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

On the technical side, indicating the route of least resistance is to the bearish. The 14-day relative strength index is suggesting selling conditions with as the RSI value holds below 50, and the daily MACD histogram is again printing deeper bars below the zero line, a sign of strengthening bearish momentum. The double bottom pattern on the 4-hour chart is extending support to the direct currency pair. Let’s look for staying bullish above or bearish below 1.1000 level today to target 1.1055 on the upper side and 1.0985 on the lower side. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair found on the bearish track and still on the backfoot while dropping 1.2850, mainly due to showing depreciation in the ruling Conservative Party lead. The greenback strength leaves a negative impact on the GBP/USD currency pair.

The Tory announcement is already under criticism for its lack of defense, failure to mention promises on the National Healthcare System (NHS), and Brexit’s deadline is keeping the political depression for the ruling party. The Independent says that former senior judge blames the United Kingdom’s (U.K.) ‘s current Prime Minister for his reckless private life.

On the other hand, the United States President Donald Trump continues its hopes of a phase-one deal with China even after the media releases from Beijing that blamed the U.S. for unfair behavior. The greenback stays on the bullish track across the board because investors still trust the U.S. dollar during the risk-on sentiment.

For now, there is no significant data and event is scheduled to release from the United Kingdom, the United States economic calendar is full of critical figures ranging from the 2nd-version on 3rd-quarter (Q3) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to October month Durable Goods Orders. The markets will keep their eyes on the U.S. Personnel Income and Spending, coupled with the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Index.

Ahead of the data, T.D. Securities anticipates the Core PCE to stay around 0.7% YoY whereas also expecting Durable Goods Orders to recover to -1.0%.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2748
  • S2 1.2818
  • S1 1.2859
  • Pivot Point 1.2887
  • R1 1.2928
  • R2 1.2956
  • R3 1.3025

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

On Wednesday, the GBP/USD is now heading lower to test the triple bottom support area of 1.2820. The cable seems to close a tweezers bottom pattern on the 2-hour chart, which is famous for driving a bullish trend in the market. So here we can expect GBP/USD to trade bullish above 1.2820 to target 1.2880 later today. 

 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair found on the bullish track, extending its recent recovery rally. As of writing, the currency pair currently trading at 109.15. The USD/JPY pair hit the two-weeks high during the Asian session mainly due to the positive headlines which came out from the United States and China regarding trade deal.

The pair closed beyond 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) for the first time since early November because the market’s risk sentiment further improved. Traders, the primary reason behind such a drop in uncertainty is increasing expectations that the United States (U.S.) and China will soon sign an initial, or phase-one, trade deal.

Elsewhere, the new trade headlines came from the United States President Donald Trump that we are very close to making a deal with China. The South China Morning Post’s (SCMP) story highlights the Commerce Secretary’s order to protect telecommunication networks and their supply chains from national security warnings. Though, the same fails to get much of the attention.

At the Fed front, the positive comments from the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell and Governor Lael Brainard also supported the USD/JPY currency pair. Notably, the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell praised the current economic status and the present monetary policy, whereas Governor Brainard said that the economic risk outlook still weak, but the sentiment seems to be improving. 

Traders did not give much focus on the comment from the President of the Federal Reserve bank of Dallas, Robert Kaplan, that the United States economy has a good opportunity to grow by 25 in the coming year. Still, unfortunately, the growth in the 4th-quarter is going to be weak.

The 2nd version of the 3rd-quarter US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and October month Durable Goods Orders will be closely observed in the U.S. economic calendar as well as the comments from the Bank of Joana board member Makoto Sakurai, and trade headlines can be kept for intermediate direction.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3: 109.38
  • R2: 109
  • R1: 108.77
  • Pivot Point 108.61
  • S1: 108.39
  • S2: 108.23
  • S3: 107.84

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading at 109.100, and it has just violated the horizontal resistance area of 109. The closings of bullish candles above 109 mark are suggesting further buying until 109.300 and 109.450. Besides, the MACD and RSI are still holding in the bullish zone. Consider taking buying trades over 109 to target 109.35 today. 

All the best!

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, November 26 – Major Trade Setups – Stronger Dollar Rules the Market

The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.3% on the day to 98.27, lifted by stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data. The euro slid 0.3% to $1.1024. The Markit eurozone Manufacturing PMI posted 46.6

The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.3% on the day to 98.27, lifted by stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data. The euro slid 0.3% to $1.1024. The Markit eurozone Manufacturing PMI posted 46.6

The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.3% on the day to 98.27, lifted by stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data. The euro slid 0.3% to $1.1024. The Markit eurozone Manufacturing PMI posted 46.6 in November (46.4 expected, 45.9 in October), while Services PMI declined to 51.5 (52.4 expected) from 52.2.

The sentiment was lifted after Chinese President Xi Jinping called for Beijing and Washington to strengthen communications.

Regarding U.S. economic data, the Markit U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (preliminary reading) posted 52.2 in November (51.4 expected, 51.3 in October). The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (final reading) came in at 96.8 (95.7 expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair looking flat and consolidates in the narrow range of 1.1012 / 1.1016. Looking forward, this pair will likely hit the 4-day winning rally mainly due to the hints came regarding a rate cut from the Federal Reserve President Jerome Powell on Monday that interest rates are unlikely to increase anytime soon.

Notably, Powell’s comments indicate the Federal Reserve is likely to hold rates steady for some time until the inflation spikes well above 2 percent.

Therefore, the markets will likely offer the greenback and supporting the EUR/USD currency pairs to hit the bullish level for the first time after November 19. As we know, the currency pair found oo the bearish track yesterday to confirm the 4th-consecutive daily decline.

While Powell’s comments may weigh over the U.S. dollar, the upside in the common currency looks limited, courtesy of weaker Eurozone and German PMIs released last Friday.

Whereas on the other hand, the Federal Reserve President Jerome Powell’s comments could leave the pressure on the greenback, the bullish move in the EUR currency looks limited in the wake of weaker Eurozone and the German PMIs released last Friday.

At the Sino-US front, the report came that the United States and China have reached on the solving trade deal and reduced the risk appetite sentiment in the market. That is visible from the flat action in the Chinese Yuan and the Australian dollar currency. Whereas, the futures on the S&P 500 are also trading in a sideways manner. 

    

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.1036

S2 1.1056

S1 1.1067

Pivot Point 1.1076

R1 1.1087

R2 1.1095

R3 1.1115

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD traded as we forecast to drop to 1.1010 level after forming a bearish hammer candle during the previous week. For the moment, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.1020 level and has developed a bullish engulfing pattern on the 2-hour chart. It’s suggesting strong chances of a bullish reversal until 1.1040 and 1.1060 the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci resistance areas. Let’s consider staying bullish above 1.1015 level today to target 1.1060. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair sidelined and consolidates in the narrow range near the 1.2900 mainly due to traders takes clues from the trade news and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell diverting markets attention off from the United Kingdoms matters.

At the Sino-US front, the report came that the official from the United States and China discussed the multiple ways to resolve the trade deal matter over the phone call raised the chances of the phase-1 deal between the world’s biggest nations. Traders are ignoring the rising uncertainty regarding the 2nd-phase deal.

Moreover, the United States Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell crossed wires while delivering the speech at the Providence Chamber of Commerce Annual Meeting in Rhode Island. The Fed avoided giving any fresh hints regarding future monetary policy. By the way, his positive preference for household spending ruled out the negative comments regarding global trade and jobs increase.

As well as, the greenback increases its recent rally, whereas the risk sentiment stays almost positive due to the United States’ 10-year treasury yields and major stock indices.

In the United Kingdom (U.K.), the ruling Conservatives and the opposition parties are at each other after the Tory leader, Boris Johnson, released the party’s announcement during the weekend. Whereas the Labour Party is struggling to detect mistakes in the Tory promises, ordering from National Healthcare System (NHS) to Defence, the Liberal Democrats (LibDems) doubts the Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson led to party’s ability to offer smooth Brexit before the Christmas.

There is no significant data and event for decorating the economic calendar, so the traders will keep their eyes on the U.S. catalysts to plan near-term trading bias. Moreover, the 2nd-tier housing and manufacturing data will join Consumer Confidence and speech from the Fed Governor Lael Brainard.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2651

S2 1.2756

S1 1.2794

Pivot Point 1.2862

R1 1.29

R2 1.2967

R3 1.3073

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

On Tuesday, the GBP/USD has opened higher to 1.2865 following a massive fall to 1.2822 on Friday, which would yield consolidation ahead of another bearish wave from 1.2985 extends to 1.2775. Lets us reckon Nov’s low of 1.2769 as it supports the GBP/USD around the same level if 1.2825 level gets violated. Consider staying bearish below 1.2875 level today to target 1.2825 

 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY closed at 108.917 after placing a high of 108.975 and a low of 108.596. Overall the movement for USD/JPY remained Bullish that day.

China said on Sunday that it would seek to improve protections for intellectual property rights, including raising the upper limits for compensation for rights violations. 

China rolled out plans to strengthen its rules on copyrights, patents, and trademarks. This subject has been one core sticking point in more than a year of trade negotiations with the United States.

It was reported that by 2022, China would be making progress in issues that have affected intellectual property rights enforcement, such as low compensation, high costs, and the difficulty of proof. And that a better system of protection should be placed by 2025.

The rules around Intellectual property rights have been a major complaint against China and have been boosting the dispute between the most significant economies from the year. It was reported by US International trade Administration in 2018 that the estimated Intellectual Property theft has cost American businesses up to $600 billion a year.

The unauthorized access to a wide range of commercially valuable business information, technical data, trade secrets, and proprietary internal communications by the Chinese Government has been a burden on US commerce. In response to this, the need to address intellectual property rules came out against China by Trump administration, which led to increased tariffs on thousands of products and cast uncertainty on business activity across the globe.


Daily Support and Resistance

R3: 109.38

R2: 109

R1: 108.77

Pivot Point 108.61

S1: 108.39

S2: 108.23

S3: 107.84

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading at 108.700, and it has just violated the triple top resistance area of 108.600. The closings of bullish candles above 108.600 level are extending support to the safe-haven currency USD/JPY. With this, the market opens further room for buying until 109.090 for the USD/JPY pair. Besides, the MACD and RSI are still holding in the bullish zone. Consider taking buying trades over 108.650 to target 109 today. 

All the best!

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Forex Market Analysis

USD/CAD Completes 50% Retracement – Investor’s Eye Triple Top! 

The USD/CAD closed at 1.32993 after placing a high of 1.33014 and a low of 1.32542. Overall the movement of pair remained Bullish that day.

At 18:30 GMT, the

The USD/CAD closed at 1.32993 after placing a high of 1.33014 and a low of 1.32542. Overall the movement of pair remained Bullish that day.

At 18:30 GMT, the

The USD/CAD closed at 1.32993 after placing a high of 1.33014 and a low of 1.32542. Overall the movement of pair remained Bullish that day.

At 18:30 GMT, the Core Retail Sales from Canada came in favor of Canadian Dollar as 0.2% against the expectations of -0.1%, and the Retail Sales also supported the Loonie when came in as -0.1% against the expectations of -0.3%.

The Stronger than expected Retail Sales & Core Retail Sales data from Canada gave the impression of a robust Canadian economy in this time of global slowdown. The stronger Canadian Dollar pushed USD/CAD prices to the low of 1.32524 on Friday.

However, the pair USD/CAD got support from Strong US Dollar on Friday after the release of PMI from the United States. At 19:45 GMT, the Flash Manufacturing PMI of the United States showed an increase to 52.2 from the expectations of 51.5 for November. The Flash Services PMI was also increased to 51.6 for November from October’s 50.6. 

Stronger than expected PMI was very beneficial in raising the dropped USD/CAD on Friday. However, the upward trend for the pair continued and was further supported when the Consumer confidence from the University of Michigan was seen as favoring the USD. At 20:00 GMT, the Revised UoM Consumer Confidence Sentiment also raised to 96.8 from the expectations of 95.8.

The Crude Oil prices on Friday also dropped due to increased selling pressure by profit-taking activities of the traders who bought Crude Oil after the news of OPEC cut extension on Thursday. The fall in crude oil prices pressed the Commodity-linked Loonie, and hence, USD/CAD was further raised to place a high of 1.33014 at the ending day of the week.


USD/CAD – Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance 

1.3269     1.3318

1.3237     1.3335

1.3187     1.3385

Pivot Point 1.3286

The commodity currency USD/CAD has completed 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3258. On the 2 hour graph, the pair has closed bullish engulfing candle, which is signaling bullish bias among traders. 

For the moment, the USD/CAD is facing strong support at 1.3290, along with a resistance at 1.3325. At the same time, the pair is also trading in a bullish channel, which is keeping the USD/CAD trading sentiment bullish.  

Consider staying bullish above 1.3286 with a stop loss below 1.3250 and take profit around 1.3325. All the best! </span

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, November 25 – Major Trade Setups – Stronger Dollar In Play! 

The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.3% on the day to 98.27, lifted by stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data. The euro slid 0.3% to $1.1024. The Markit eurozone Manufacturing PMI posted 46.6

The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.3% on the day to 98.27, lifted by stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data. The euro slid 0.3% to $1.1024. The Markit eurozone Manufacturing PMI posted 46.6

The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.3% on the day to 98.27, lifted by stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data. The euro slid 0.3% to $1.1024. The Markit eurozone Manufacturing PMI posted 46.6 in November (46.4 expected, 45.9 in October), while Services PMI declined to 51.5 (52.4 expected) from 52.2.

The sentiment was lifted after Chinese President Xi Jinping called for Beijing and Washington to strengthen communications.

Regarding U.S. economic data, the Markit U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (preliminary reading) posted 52.2 in November (51.4 expected, 51.3 in October). The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (final reading) came in at 96.8 (95.7 expected).

  

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair flashing red and will likely hit the bearish level below 1.10 on the day if the German IFO data ignore expectations. 

As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair dropped from 1.1058 to 1.1014. At the end of the week, the EUR/USD was seen trading as a bearish at 1.1097, in the wake of mixed German PMIs and the dismal Eurozone PMIs. It should be noted that European Central Banks President Christianne Lagarde said the global economic uncertainty is high and asked for a fiscal boost, as required.

The recent bearish high setup will likely retest of 1.10. The pairs bearish sentiment is likely to be stronger due to the fading United States and China’s optimism. Whereas the United States and China phase-one trade deal seems not to happen soon, by the way, both nations struggling to reach on a positive outcome. Notably, the German economy has paid a heavy price for the year-long trade tensions.

The greenback found on the bullish track in the wake of unexpectedly better U.S. Markit PMIs and a bullish revision to the University of Michigan consumer sentiment.

According to the situation, there are very low reasons for the shared currency traders to take a buying under the single currency on the day, and the support at 1.10 will be likely to be failed if the German IFOs miss expectations, which is scheduled to release 09:00 GMT.

That German economy is suffering recession risk is generally accepted by now. So, the forward-looking IFO – Expectations (Nov) index will take priority over the Business Climate and the Current Assessment number. The Expectation index is seen reading at 92.5 against 91.5 in October.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.0894

S2 1.0967

S1 1.0993

Pivot Point 1.104

R1 1.1066

R2 1.1113

R3 1.1187

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD traded as we forecast to drop to 1.1010 level after forming a bearish hammer candle during the previous week. For the moment, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.1020 level and has developed a bullish engulfing pattern on the 2-hour chart. It’s suggesting strong chances of a bullish reversal until 1.1040 and 1.1060 the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci resistance areas. Let’s consider staying bullish above 1.1015 level today to target 1.1050. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair found on the bearish track and currently trading at 1.2850. The Cable pair got the support from the polls showing a hike in Tory support for the December snap election before losing ground due to doubts arising from the ruling party’s latest announcement.

During the weekend, the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson released the ruling Conservative Party’s announcement that offers many austerity measures apart from smooth Brexit. Notably, the party’s commitments regarding a National Healthcare System (NHS) budget by £33.9 billion by 2023-24, an offer of 50,000 nurses and not to increase rates of income tax, national insurance or VAT till the next five years took significant attention.

However, the latest series of polls keep the Conservatives at the front seat with more than 10% points of a lead over other parties.

The GBP/USD currency pair was found on the strong bearish track on Friday, mainly due to preliminary figures of activity number keep portraying the markets Brexit fears. On the other side,

the same conflicts with the United States statistic that kept the U.S. dollar.

At the greenback front, the strong buying in the greenback came mainly due to optimism surrounding the United States and China trade deal after the United States President Donald Trump said that the trade deal with China is very close. Although the confidence remains under check with the Donald Trump administration’s willingness to take a good look at the Hong Kong bill, which in turn could resume the conflict between the U.S. and China, whereas also negatively affecting the trade negotiations.

The United Kingdom CBI Distributive Trade Survey and the United States Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index, as well as the US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, will keep under the spotlight. Moreover, the market will keep their eyes on the trade and political headlines for fresh impulse.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2651

S2 1.2756

S1 1.2794

Pivot Point 1.2862

R1 1.29

R2 1.2967

R3 1.3073

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

On Monday, the GBP/USD has opened higher to 1.2865 following a massive fall to 1.2822 on Friday, which would yield consolidation ahead of another bearish wave from 1.2985 extends to 1.2775. 

Lets us reckon Nov’s low of 1.2769 as it supports the GBP/USD around the same level if 1.2825 level gets violated. Consider staying bearish below 1.2895 level today. 

 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair is flashing green and found on the bullish track despite few headlines during the weekend regarding geopolitical themes that have kept markets on alert. At of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 108.66 and consolidates in the narrow range of 108.63 and 108.69.

The market’s focus, as described in this week’s Asia open. Recap of latest progress as risk-on tones appear with trade wars and Brexit. The fresh news is slightly more favorable for risk appetite, possibly reducing the Japanese yen’s progress for the time being with USD/JPY moving between 108.48 and 108.76 on Friday.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar is bid on its right after dome promising data from Friday. U.S. November flash Markit PMIs contrasted with the European and U.K.’s releases, beating expectations manufacturing climbed to 51.6 (vs. est. 51.0, prior 50.6), and services rose to 52.5 (est. 51.4, prior 51.3).

For the U.S. calendar, we have the Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index data, which analysts at T.D. Securities said suggest core PCE inflation could remain steady at 1.7% YoY in October, even after a notable MoM increase in healthcare prices. On the other hand, headline PCE likely rose a tenth to 1.4% YoY. Separately, we expect personal spending to advance 0.2% MoM for a 3rd-consecutive month in October, with a firm increase in services spending leading the upside.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 108.11

S2 108.37

S1 108.51

Pivot Point 108.62

R1 108.77

R2 108.88

R3 109.13

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading at 108.700, and it has just violated the triple top resistance area of 108.600. The closings of bullish candles above 108.600 level are extending support to the safe-haven currency USD/JPY. With this, the market opens further room for buying until 109.090 for the USD/JPY pair. Besides, the MACD and RSI are still holding in the bullish zone. 

Consider taking buying trades over 108.650 to target 109 today. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

USD/CAD Completes 38.2% Fibo Retracement – Retail Sales Surpries!

The USD/CAD closed at 1.32846 after placing a high of 1.33249 and a low of 1.32694. Overall the trend for USD/CAD remained Bearish that day. Last month, the Central Bank

The USD/CAD closed at 1.32846 after placing a high of 1.33249 and a low of 1.32694. Overall the trend for USD/CAD remained Bearish that day. Last month, the Central Bank

The USD/CAD closed at 1.32846 after placing a high of 1.33249 and a low of 1.32694. Overall the trend for USD/CAD remained Bearish that day. Last month, the Central Bank of Canada held its Interest rates at 1.75% as expected and left the door open to a potential cut in later months. The Bank of Canada has not changed its monetary policy since October 2018, even its counterpart Banks, including the Federal Reserve of United States, has lowered its interest rates.

On Thursday, Stephen Poloz, the Governor of Central Bank of Canada, said that Canada’s monetary conditions were about right in the current economic situation, which has been challenged throughout by global trade tensions. He added that the central bank of Canada was watching whether the trade uncertainties affect the confidence of the economy in order to decide its future plans. In his views, the monetary conditions were about right in given situations.

He also compared the Canadian economic state with American and said that Federal Reserve cut its rates three times and was now down to where the Canadian rates were. He further added that Bank of Canada was concerned that the Canadian economy relies heavily on exports, and the global trade disputes, including the US-China trade war, were affecting it.

Stephen Poloz also mentioned about the new models that Bank of Canada was built on understanding the significant consequences climate change could impose on financial stability. The positive comments about the Canadian economy from Poloz gave strength to the Canadian Dollar and weighed on USD/CAD prices on Thursday.
On Data front, the ADP Non-Farm Employment change from Canada came in as -22.6K against the previous 25.7K.

Furthermore, the Crude Oil WTI prices rose on Thursday amid the hopes of OPEC cut extension and supported the rising Commodity Linked Currency – Loonie, which added in the Bearish trend of USD/CAD.

The downward trend of USD/CAD was also supported by the weak macroeconomic data from the American side on Thursday. At 18:30 GMT, the US Unemployment Claims for this week exceeded the expectations of 215K and came in as 227K and gave pressure to US dollars. At 20:00 GMT, the CB Leading Index came in as -0.1%, which was as expected. The Existing Home Sales also gave pressure to US Dollars when it came in as 5.46M against the expectations of 5.49M.

Besides, the Canadian retail sales data has just come out, and it may drive sell-off in the USD/CAD pair in the wake of optimistic data. Retail sales surged by 0.2% vs. a drop of 0.1% during the previous month.


USD/CAD- Daily Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1.326 1.3315
1.3237 1.3348
1.3182 1.3403
Pivot Point 1.3293

Technically, the USD/CAD has a complete 38.2% retracement at 1.3274, but the MACD histogram is holding below 0 levels suggesting further selling bias. The bearish breakout pattern can trigger a sell-off until 50% and 61.8% Fibo level of 1.3260 and 1.3240 level. Let’s consider staying bearish under .13293 level today. All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, November 22 – Major Trade Setups – Who’s Up for ECB and PMI Data?

The U.S. Dollar Index edged up 0.1% on the day to 97.96, as investors remained prudent over the prospects of a U.S.-China trade deal. The U.S. President Donald Trump mentioned

The U.S. Dollar Index edged up 0.1% on the day to 97.96, as investors remained prudent over the prospects of a U.S.-China trade deal. The U.S. President Donald Trump mentioned

The U.S. Dollar Index edged up 0.1% on the day to 97.96, as investors remained prudent over the prospects of a U.S.-China trade deal. The U.S. President Donald Trump mentioned that China is not stepping up in trade negotiations, while the Wall Street Journal reported that China’s chief trade negotiator Liu He had invited his U.S. counterparts for more talks.

The U.S. Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims amounted to 227,000 for the week ended November 16 (218,000 expected, 227,000 in the prior week). Existing home sales grew to an annualized rate of 5.46 million units in October (5.49 million units expected, 5.36 million units in September).

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair flashing green and will likely hit the bearish track if the new European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde sounds dovish in her first policy speech. So, let’s see what will happen.

As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair currently trading near 1.1063, showing a 0.12% increase in the trading hours, by the way, the pair hit the high of 1.1097 yesterday. The new European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will be giving her first big policy speech at a banking conference in Frankfurt. She avoided talking regarding the monetary policy during her last November 4 speech in Berlin.

It should be noted that the dovish comments may send the EUR/USD currency pair near the bearish level of 1.10. The EUR currency will likely cancel the next bearish move if the Lagarde sounds hawkish regarding the policy and calls for more effort on the fiscal front.

On the other hand, the recent report came that many board members held against the previous President Draghi’s decision to add further stimulus in September. So, Lagarde has limited opportunities to raise expectations for more stimulus. Moreover, Germany avoided recession in the 3rd-quarter.

According to the forecast, the chance of Lagarde sounding neutral-to-hawkish is high. However, the resulting increases in the EUR will likely to be canceled if the preliminary Eurozone and German PMI, scheduled for release after Lagarde’s speech, disappoint expectations. The final figures for Germany’s 3rd-quarter GDP, recorded at 07:00 GMT.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.0981

S2 1.1026

S1 1.1044

Pivot Point 1.107

R1 1.1089

R2 1.1115

R3 1.116

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The currency pair created a bearish hammer candle on Wednesday, indicating the bullish move from its recent lows below 1.10 has run out of steam and sign of an aggressive bearish move. However, a bearish reversal will be confirmed if the EUR/USD pair closes below the candle’s low of 1.1053 (a hammer) on Thursday. Also, a close above 1.1081 would negate the bearish hammer and signal a resumption of the recovery rally.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair found on the bullish track the first time after the starting of the week due to a variation in the market trade sentiment. While the pair is currently taking bids to the 1.2920.

The recent recovery could partially be attributed to the silence before taking a decisive turn in the US-China trade tussle. As per the Reuters, the United States (U.S.) may delay December 15 tariff hikes while the CNBC’s news of China still having U.S. trade negotiators on their invitation list triggered risk recovery. Even so, the U.S. Navy’s claim of “Freedom of Navigation” in the South China Sea was harshly criticized by Beijing.

We may say that the recent recovery in the GBP/USD currency pair inspired by the silence before happening any positive activity in the United States and China trade deal. Moreover, the chances that the United States will likely delay the increased tariff on Chinese goods. In contrast, China invited the United States negotiators, recently trying to restore the sentiment of the market. 

However, uncertainties still surrounding the United States and China trade deal because China now awaits the United States President Donald Trumps to proceed with the Hong Kong bill after congress passed the much-criticized bill.

On the economic calendar, Markit is scheduled to release preliminary readings of the U.K.’s Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) figures, whereas the US PMIs and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will also enhance the line.

On the other hand, the month brings the first flash PMIs for the U.K. For the manufacturing PMI, we look for a bit of a pullback to 49.3 (market: 48.8), as election uncertainty weighs on sentiment. Notably, the Chances for Sino-US trade deal and hard possibilities of hard Brexit should support the PMI above its lows from the summer.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.277

S2 1.2847

S1 1.2878

Pivot Point 1.2924

R1 1.2955

R2 1.3001

R3 1.3078

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

On the technical side, bears look for a daily closing below 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) level of 1.2880 to try for monthly low surrounding 1.2770, until then 1.3000 and 1.3015 will stay on buyers’ radars. 

On a shorter timeframe, the GBP/USD is trading with a bullish bias at 1.2930. The bullish trend is mostly triggered due to the Three White Soldiers pattern, which is suggesting a strong buying trend in the GBP/USD pair. On the upper side, the immediate target is likely to be 1.2960. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair is sideways near the 108.60 and consolidates in the narrow range of 408.46 and 108.70 because markets want more transparency on the trade deal between the United States and China. 

At the Sino-US front, the chances that the United States will likely delay the increased tariff on the Chinese goods. In contrast, China invited to the United States negotiators, as delivered by the South orning Post and the Wall Street Journal, recently trying to retore the sentiment of the market. However, uncertainties still surrounding the United States and China trade deal because China now awaits the United States President Donald Trumps to proceed with the Hong Kong bill after congress passed the much-criticized bill.

Finally, the greenback drifted a little higher, whereas the United States’ two-year Treasury yields bounced off 1.55% to 1.60%. The ten-year yields rose from 1.71% to 1.78%. Markets are pricing a terminal funds rate of 1.20% (vs. 1.63% currently).

U.S. stocks closed modestly lower with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, DJIA, losing 54.8 points, or 0.2%, to 27,766.29 while the S&P 500 dropped back 4.92 points, or 0.2%, to 3,103.54. The Nasdaq Composite index fell 20.52 points, or 0.2%, to 8,506.21, having closed at its highest levels at the start of the week.

At the Japan front, the Japan October Consumer Price Index was expected to tick up fractionally, to 0.3% YoY overall, 0.6% YoY ex-fresh food & energy. 

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 108.11

S2 108.35

S1 108.48

Pivot Point 108.59

R1 108.72

R2 108.83

R3 109.07

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading at 108.500, just below the bearish trendline, which is extending resistance at 108.700 area. The closing od Doji candle below 108.700 level saying a lot about investors’ sentiment. On the other hand, the MACD and RSI are still holding in the bullish zone. 

Due to different sentiments, we should keep a close eye on 108.550 level today as the USD/JPY can trade bearish below and bullish above this level. On the lower side, the target remains 108.250, while 109 remains the bullish target. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Gold’s Bullish Channel In Test – Can We See a Breakout?

On Thursday, the gold prices y eased from the last session’s two-week high after a report that China has invited top U.S. negotiators for a new round of face-to-face talks

On Thursday, the gold prices y eased from the last session’s two-week high after a report that China has invited top U.S. negotiators for a new round of face-to-face talks

On Thursday, the gold prices y eased from the last session’s two-week high after a report that China has invited top U.S. negotiators for a new round of face-to-face talks, and is seeking to reach a primary trade treaty with the United States.

Safe-haven demand is also dominating the market as it was further disturbed after the U.S. Senate passed a bill against China and in favor of Hong Kong on Wednesday. Both the U.S. House and Senate signed the Bill via a veto-proof majority. 

According to the act, annual certification of Hong Kong’s autonomy would be required, and punishment will be imposed on Beijing against suppressing protestors. China demanded the United States to stop interfering in its internal affairs and said that it would retaliate.

Later, on Wednesday, FOMC October’s Meeting minutes were released and showed that there would not be any further rate cut this year. 

The holding of monetary policy and rate cuts by federal reserve was already expected, so it didn’t make much impact on the precious metal gold. 

Minutes revealed that most officials of Federal Reserve were against the 4th rate cut this year. Some officials supported rate cut but also said that it was a close call. 

Officials were concerned that some banks had decreased the capital buffers when they should be rising. Minutes also revealed that risks to the economic outlook remained tilted to the downside. Many officials said that rate cut was warranted due to global weaknesses and trade uncertainty.


XAU/USD – Technical Levels

Support    Resistance 

1,465.41    1,478.36

1,459.2      1,485.1

1,446.25    1,498.05

Key Trading Level: 1,472.15

On the technical side, gold prices are trading within a bullish channel, which is supporting the XAU/USD above 1,466 level. The MACD and RSI are holding below 0 and 50, respectively, suggesting changes of a bearish breakout. If this happens, gold prices may drop further until the 1,456 level. Therefore, consider taking sell positions below 1,465 level today. 
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Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, November 21 – Major Trade Setups – ECB Ready to Shake the Market

The U.S. Dollar Index kept trading within a tight range, closing flat at 97.83. The euro and the British pound were little changed at $1.1079 and $1.2929, respectively. The USD/JPY slipped 0.1% to 108.46. The USD/CAD advanced 0.3% to 1.3307. Official data showed that Canada’s consumer prices grew 1.9% on year in October (as expected).  […]

The U.S. Dollar Index kept trading within a tight range, closing flat at 97.83. The euro and the British pound were little changed at $1.1079 and $1.2929, respectively. The USD/JPY slipped 0.1% to 108.46. The USD/CAD advanced 0.3% to 1.3307. Official data showed that Canada’s consumer prices grew 1.9% on year in October (as expected).  […]

The U.S. Dollar Index kept trading within a tight range, closing flat at 97.83. The euro and the British pound were little changed at $1.1079 and $1.2929, respectively. The USD/JPY slipped 0.1% to 108.46. The USD/CAD advanced 0.3% to 1.3307. Official data showed that Canada’s consumer prices grew 1.9% on year in October (as expected). 

Later today, existing home sales are expected to post a growth of 2.0% on month to a yearly rate of 5.49 million units in October. The Leading Index is likely to slip by 0.2%. Besides, the U.S. unemployment claims for the week ended November 16 is anticipated to fall to 218,000 from 225,000 in the prior week.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair is found on the bearish territory and created a bearish hammer candle ahead of Europan Central Bank minutes. That might anticipate that members stand divided on which course to take, in short, there could be seen the opposite sentiment as compared to earlier.

It should be noted that the market turned into the risk-off in Aisa, in the wake of political and trade uncertainty. The report came that the fair trade deal between the United States and China will likely shift into next year. Moreover, traders are also worried that resumed political tensions between the United States and China will likely damage the global economy and could complicate matters on the trade front.

On the other hand, Beijing warned the United States to do not interfere in this matter. The risk-tone also weighs down amid on-going protests in Hong Kong and Israel. 

At the ECB front, the EUR currency will likely take a buying if the ECB meeting minutes exhibits growing resistance to the massive easing package announced by the former President Draghi in September.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.1012

S2 1.1041

S1 1.1057

Pivot Point 1.1069

R1 1.1085

R2 1.1097

R3 1.1126

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The currency pair created a bearish hammer candle on Wednesday, indicating the bullish move from its recent lows below 1.10 has run out of steam and sign of an aggressive bearish move. However, a bearish reversal will be confirmed if the EUR/USD pair closes below the candle’s low of 1.1053 (a hammer) on Thursday. Also, a close above 1.1081 would negate the bearish hammer and signal a resumption of the recovery rally.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair turned to green and taking round near the 1.2930, mainly due challenges to Tories recede. After the ITV debate between the United Kingdom, Prime Minister Boris Johnson, and the opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn immediate votes challenges to Tories. The latest surveys from the Savanta Comres says that about one in five Labour voters is considering backing the Tories. 

The market has recently stayed under pressure because the United States and China trade dispute escalated, whereas the House of Representatives passed the Hong Kong bill. Risk-tone stays slow with the United States ten-year treasury yield and the Asian stocks both flashing red signals.

Whereas a shortage of significant data/events will likely keep trade/political headlines concerning the U.S. and China in the light, news from the U.K. and 2nd-tier Housing and manufacturing data from the U.S. could offer intermediate progress. 

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.283

S2 1.2872

S1 1.2897

Pivot Point 1.2913

R1 1.2939

R2 1.2955

R3 1.2997

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

On the technical side, bears look for a daily closing below 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) level of 1.2880 to try for monthly low surrounding 1.2770, until then 1.3000 and 1.3015 will stay on buyers’ radars. 

On a shorter timeframe, the GBP/USD is trading with a bullish bias at 1.2930. The bullish trend is mostly triggered due to the Three White Soldiers pattern, which is suggesting a strong buying trend in the GBP/USD pair. On the upper side, the immediate target is likely to be 1.2960. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair increased its moderate recovery from the 50-day Moving Average support manly due to the China Vice Premier and trade negotiator Liu He stated that he is hopeful about reaching a phase-1 trade deal. 

As of now, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 108.49, representing a 0.13% decline on the day, having bounced from the 50-day moving average support of 108.28 in the last one hour.

It must be noted that Liu He is showing optimism on trade, but few traders seem to avoid going long on the JPY trades, helping the pair to show a slight recovery. However, the futures on the S&P 500, are still reporting a 0.22% decline. Moreover, the Asian equities are down with Japan’s Nikkei reporting a 1% drop.

Whereas, the United States’ ten-year treasury yield is also showing no sign of life. The Treasury yield is currently trading at two-week lows near 1.73%.

Basically, the equity and bond market are not looking so impressed by the Premier Liu He’s comments and continue to worry about declining the trade certainty due to intensifying political tension.

Therefore the USD/JPY currency pair will likely fall back to the 50-day average at 108.28. However, if the equities recover, the pair will probably move into the positive region above 108.60.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 107.78

S2 108.17

S1 108.39

Pivot Point 108.57

R1 108.78

R2 108.96

R3 109.35

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading at 108.500, just below the bearish trendline, which is extending resistance at 108.700 area. The closing od Doji candle below 108.700 level saying a lot about investors’ sentiment. On the other hand, the MACD and RSI are still holding in the bullish zone. 

Due to different sentiments, we should keep a close eye on 108.550 level today as the USD/JPY can trade bearish below and bullish above this level. On the lower side, the target remains 108.250, while 109 remains the bullish target. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Gold Set to Test Pivot Point – Buyers Loom Around the Corner! 

On Wednesday, the precious metal gold prices soared to their peak levels in nearly two weeks as U.S. Senate activity on Hong Kong produced a likely obstacle to a trade

On Wednesday, the precious metal gold prices soared to their peak levels in nearly two weeks as U.S. Senate activity on Hong Kong produced a likely obstacle to a trade

On Wednesday, the precious metal gold prices soared to their peak levels in nearly two weeks as U.S. Senate activity on Hong Kong produced a likely obstacle to a trade deal between the United States and China, bending demand for riskier assets.

The Chinese news outlet Global Times reported that U.S. & China had a long way to go to end the trade dispute and to come to terms. 

CNBC reported on Monday that China would wait for the outcomes of 2020 U.S. Presidential elections before signing a trade deal. It was also said that China appeared to set on “wait till Trump out” rather than focusing on the Phase-one deal.

The phase one deal was highly skeptical from the beginning due to red lines of enforcement mechanism, Intellectual properties, and subsidies. Trump, on Tuesday, in response to the Chinese reluctance to sign the deal, gave threats to China that he would impose more duties on Chinese goods by 15 December if the phase-one deal was not signed by then.



Gold – XAU/USD – Technical Outlook

Gold extends to trade in a bullish trend at 1,474 levels in the wake of U.S. China trade risks. On the 4 hour graph, the yellow metal has violated the ascending triangle, which was extending hurdle to gold around 1,472 area. Now, this level is working as a support. 

Support    Resistance
1466.46    1476.85
1460.46    1481.25
1450.06    1491.64
Pivot Point 1470.85

Gold prices still hold over 50 EMA, which is expected to support it near 1,470 marks. The recent bearish trend in gold is likely to from three black crows pattern on gold, which may lead to gold prices below the 1,470 level and even towards 1,466. That’s where we can expect to take a buying trade today. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, November 20 – Major Trade Setups – Eyes on U.S. FOMC Meeting Minutes! 

The U.S. dollar was steady ahead of the release of the latest Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting due later today. The Dollar Index closed broadly flat at 97.82. While media

The U.S. dollar was steady ahead of the release of the latest Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting due later today. The Dollar Index closed broadly flat at 97.82. While media

The U.S. dollar was steady ahead of the release of the latest Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting due later today. The Dollar Index closed broadly flat at 97.82. While media reported that the U.S. and China are discussing the size of tariff rollbacks, President Donald Trump cautioned to force higher tariffs in case a deal is not reached.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

Economic Calendar by TradingView

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD is flashing red and will likely slip from its recovery rally, and today’s close will decide the next direction. As of writing, the currency pair fluctuating in the bearish range of 1.1084-1.1063 and representing declines on the day within yesterday’s bullish and bearish range of 1.1090 and 1.1048. 

On the technical side, the EUR/USD pair created an inside bar candlesticks pattern today. Moreover, a close above the inside bar’s high of 1.1084 is needed to improve the recovery rally from 1.0989. While a close below the inside bar’s low of 1.1063 would suggest a bearish reversal.

On the other hand, the United States ten-year yields hit the two-week low of 1.763% and have dropped almost 20-basis-points since the topping out at 1.972% on November 7. Apart from Yields, the United States and China trade concerns are sending the risk assets danger.

It should be noted that the market flow may stand in favor of sellers if the FOMC’s 29-30 October meeting sounds hawkish. The meeting is scheduled to happen at 29-30 October19:00 GMT.

However, the hawkish tone has to be strong because, as we know, the financial markets have confirmed that the rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will not deliver until June of 2020.

According to Germany’s influential BDI industry association’s Managing Director Joachim Lang, manufacturing production in Europe’s economic powerhouse is anticipated to decrease by 4% this year.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.1036

S2 1.1056

S1 1.1067

Pivot Point 1.1076

R1 1.1087

R2 1.1095

R3 1.1115

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD displayed bearish behavior after testing the resistance mark of 1.1090. Today, the EUR/USD pair has violated the upward channel, which supported the pair around 1.1080 level, and it’s now extending it towards 1.1050 level. Consider taking sell positions below 1.1075 today with the aim of 1.1040. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair hit the bearish track for the second consecutive day and representing 0.19% declines on the day, mainly due to uncertainties surrounding the Tory leader’s public favor after the ITV debate. By the way, the cable pair is currently trading at 1.2915.

At the broadside, the ITV debate, which happened between the Tory and the opposition Labor leaders, seemed peaceful as both parties showed a relaxed attitude during holding to part and of Brexit and 2nd referendum, respectively. At the end of the debate, the survey surprise the GBP/USD pairs traders because the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johson got only 51% votes in his favor whereas, on the other hand, the opposition party leader Jeremy Corbyn got 49% votes. 

In addition to the recent polls of the ITV’s debate, the uncertainties over the UK PM’s refrain from publishing the news of Russian interference into the Brexit referendum and delaying the corporate tax forms also simulate challenges to the Tory administration.

At the greenback front, another reason behind the GBP/USD pairs weakness is that the U.S. Dollar extended its gains and offer more weakness to the GBP/USD pairs mainly due to the favorable housing market data from the United States. It also helped the US Dollar strength the United States Federal Reserve policymaker John C. Wiliams continued support for the current monetary policy also supported the U.D. buyers.

At the Sino-US front, the greenback extended its recovery streak on the day due to the risk-off arisen by the United States and China trade war regarding the Hong Kong bill. The risk-tone also weighs down amid on-going protests in Hong Kong and Israel. As a consequence, the U.S. 10-year treasury yields drop to 1.75%.

Looking forward, all the market’s eyes will be on the Feral Open Market Commmetiiees latest monetary policy meeting, which is scheduled to happen on 29-30 October, whereas the trade and political headlines will likely keep the trader entertaining.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2816

S2 1.2876

S1 1.2901

Pivot Point 1.2935

R1 1.296

R2 1.2995

R3 1.3055

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD is consolidating in a sideways range of 1.2970 – 1.2890 as bearish bias dominates despite weakness in the U.S. dollar. The GBP/USD pair may face double top resistance at 1.2975 on the 4-hour chart. While support stays at 1.2890 level today. Below this, the GBP/USD may head towards 1.2855. 

The leading indicators such as a MACD and RSI, are holding in the selling zone, suggesting chances of more selling. Consider staying bearish below 1.2935 today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair representing marginal declines and having hit the low of 108.36, the pair is currently trading at 108.50. As of writing, the pair is fluctuating in the range of 108.38/57, mainly due to weakness in the Treasury yields and lack of fresh impulse in the trade war and Brexit.

On the green side, the USD/JPY currency pair has recovered from session lows but remains on the defensive below 109.07 despite the weakness in the Treasury yields.

At the Sino-US front, the greenback extended its recovery streak on the day due to the risk-off arisen by the United States and China trade war regarding the Hong Kong bill, and Beijing warned the United States to do not interfere in this matter. The risk-tone also weighs down amid on-going protests in Hong Kong and Israel. As in consequence, the U.S. 10-year treasury yields drop to 1.75%.

At the Brexit front, the ITV debate, which is happened between the Tory and the opposition Labor leaders, seemed peaceful because both parties showed a relaxed attitude during holding to part and of Brexit and 2nd referendum, respectively. However, at the end of the debate, the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johson got only 51% votes in his favor, whereas, on the other hand, the opposition party leader Jeremy Corbyn got 49% votes. 

Meanwhile, the Fedspeak came with New York Federal Reserve president Williams announced that the economy is in a “good place.” The U.S. 2-year Treasury yields roundtripped between 1.59% to 1.62%, while the 10-years initially rose from 1.80% to 1.83% but was then sent back to 1.78%. 

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 107.84

S2 108.23

S1 108.39

Pivot Point 108.61

R1 108.77

R2 109

R3 109.38

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading at 108.40, as the bearish engulfing candle on the 2-hour chart is suggesting a strong bearish bias for the pair. Closing of another bearish candle will confirm bearish setup and the safe-haven currency pair USD/JPY may drop towards 108.200 today.  

On the higher side, resistance stays at 108.600 level. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Gold’s Ascending Triangle Plays – Is It Good Time to Buy?

On Tuesday, gold slid erasing profits from 1,470 t0 1,464 level earlier in the session, as a temporary respite from Washington for China’s Huawei increased confidence for a

On Tuesday, gold slid erasing profits from 1,470 t0 1,464 level earlier in the session, as a temporary respite from Washington for China’s Huawei increased confidence for a

On Tuesday, gold slid erasing profits from 1,470 t0 1,464 level earlier in the session, as a temporary respite from Washington for China’s Huawei increased confidence for a trade agreement between the nations and increased risk sentiment.

The yellow-metal prices dropped during the last week mainly due to the Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and White Hosue’s economic adviser Larry Kudlow hinting that the United States and China were close to signing the deal. That sent the three major stocks indexes to record highs on Wall Street.

On the other hand, Donald Trump met with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin at the White House overnight to discuss the economy and the greenback weakness.

Powell’s remarks were consonant with his statements at his congressional hearings last week the Fed said in a statement released after the meeting. In contrast, the United States President Donald Trump said the meeting was “very good.”

Risk appetite was shaken due to the news that Trump and Fed Chairman Powell had met to discuss the tendency of the dollar. There were rumors of a CNBC report that Chinese officials were involved over prior comments concerning tariffs from Trump.


XAU/USD – Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance 

1,460.54    1,478.16

1,449.67    1,484.91

1,432.05    1,502.53

Pivot Point 1,467.29

Gold is trading at 1,468 level, bouncing off above 1,464 support level. On the 4 hour timeframe, it has formed an ascending triangle pattern, which is extending its resistance around 1,474. While the bullish trendline is likely to support the pair around 1,464 level. 

The recent bullish closing above 1,464 level is suggesting the market to retrace back upward until 1,472 level. While on the flip side, a bearish breakout of 1,464 can lead gold prices towards 1,456.

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, November 19 – Major Trade Setups – U.S. China Trade War Plays! 

The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.1% on the day to 97.82, extending its decline to a third session. The euro gained 0.2% to $1.1072, and the British pound advanced 0.3%

The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.1% on the day to 97.82, extending its decline to a third session. The euro gained 0.2% to $1.1072, and the British pound advanced 0.3%

The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.1% on the day to 97.82, extending its decline to a third session. The euro gained 0.2% to $1.1072, and the British pound advanced 0.3% to $1.2947. The USD/JPY slipped 0.1% to 108.67.

After Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell met with President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to discuss the economy, the Fed released a statement saying Powell’s comments were consistent with his remarks at his congressional hearings last week.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair overall flashing green and consolidates in the narrow range of 1.1063 – 1.1076 due to renewed trade tensions leaving the selling pressure on the greenback. As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair rose by 0.10% at 1.1060 and hit a high level of 1.1076.

As we all well aware that the pair extended its bullish trend for the 3rd session in a row, extending its recovery trend from the recent 5-weeks lows of 1.0990/85 range, mainly due to the selling pressure in the greenback and some fresh trade tensions.

At the Sino-US trade front, the Chinese legislators showed some attention during the earlier session regarding the singing of the Phase one deal after the United States President Donald Trump announced to ruled out the rollover of some tariffs. In the consequences, due to these concerns, the U.S. Treasury yields turned into lower and some resurgence cities in the safe-havens, weakening further the greenback sentiment.

According to the schedule, the ECBs C.Lagarde is scheduled to deliver the speech in Frankurt later in the week, whereas the investors should keep their eyes on the ECB minutes and the preliminary figures of November PMIs in core Euroland as well.

It should b noted that the pair is increasing the recovery from the last week lows in sub-1.10 range, mainly due to the renewed weakness of U.S. Dollar and hopes of the United States a China fair trade deal. 

On the other hand, the outlook in the Euroland continues weak and does nothing but justify the failure for the more extended monetary policy by the European Central Bank and the bearish outlook on the single currency in the medium term, at least. So, from this point of view, all eyes will be on the publication of flash PMIs figures for the current month later in the week.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.1

S2 1.1036

S1 1.1054

Pivot Point 1.1072

R1 1.109

R2 1.1108

R3 1.1144

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD displayed bullish behavior to examine the resistance mark of 1.1090. Today extension of buying biases can direct the EUR/USD prices towards 1.1125 areas. While support lingers around the 1.1065 area.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair trading on the bullish track and takes buying to 1.2950 in the wake of fresh hints of political stability, and the successful Brexit keeps the cable pairs strong. As of writing, the pairs consolidate in the range of 1.2944 – 1.2967 dring the Asian session.

The GBP/USD currency pairs recently got the support from the Brexit party decrease of candidates, whereas also avoiding the Bank of England’s dovish bias.

Apart from the continued support for the tory leadership during the December election, as defined by the major surveys, the recent decision regarding the ban of liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party form the T.V.’s cross-party political discussion also speaks louder for the Conservative’s position in the United Kingdom.

Challenges are surrounding Prime Minister Boris Johnson avoid to release documents regarding Russian interference in the Brexit election stop to cuts the British locals, including Tories, highly criticize corporate tax. Moreover, the European Union stable on the decision does not change the Brexit deal gains less of market attention.

Whereas, the trade and political headlines regarding the United States and China and ITVs debate will likely keep the entertaining investors of markets, as well as, all eyes will be on the November month CBI Industrial Trends Survey data from the U.K., the U.S. Building Permits, Housing Starts and speech from the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, John C. Williams.

Markets are looking for CBI industrial orders to increase from October’s multi-year low of -37 to -30 during November. We think that risks lie toward a more significant gain because the October survey hopefully didn’t capture the improvement in sentiment because Brexit success chances were increased.

The market expects housing starts to have rebounded to 1,320k in October, reflecting a firm 5.1% m/m jump. This would follow a notable -9.4% tumble in September, which was primarily driven by a sharp -28.2% m/m contraction in the volatile multifamily segment,” says T.D. Securities.

Daily Support and Resistance

    

S3 1.2826

S2 1.289

S1 1.2922

Pivot Point 1.2954

R1 1.2986

R2 1.3018

R3 1.3081

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD is consolidating with a bullish bias, and it surged to test resistance mark around 1.2970 level. The GBP/USD pair is now facing a double top resistance level at 1.2975 on the 4-hour chart. Typically, the pair becomes bearish below the double top. Therefore, the GBP/USD may exhibit bearish retracement unto 1.2925 ere driving the bullish trend to 1.2975. 

The MACD and RSI are staying in the bearish zone, suggesting chances of bearish trading in the GBP/USD trading today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair consolidates in the narrow range between the 108.60 and 108.70 so far. As of writing, the currency pair is currently trading near the 108.60.

The USD/JPY currency pair has been capped due to markets presuming a soft dollar policy from the United States administration, whereas trade discussions between the United States and China are on the close track, but the tension still surrounding the market.

The USD/JPY currency pair dropped from 109.05 in early N.Y. to just above 108.50. As for United States treasury yields, the United States’ two-year yields have been on the buying from 1.60% to 1.63% before dropping back to 1.59% due to the US-China trade doubt. The 10-year yields also dropped from 1.85% to 1.80%. 

On the technical side, the USD/JPY pair now tries to re-test 50% Fibonacci retracement of April-August drops at 108.40. However, a confluence of 50 and 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 108.30/25 will be the key to limit the pair’s further bearish sentiment. The Japanese Trade Minister was on the wires last minutes, also telling the need for an extra budget of around JPY 10 trillion.

    

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 107.63

S2 108.19

S1 108.44

Pivot Point 108.75

R1 109

R2 109.32

R3 109.88

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading at 108.60, completing 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 108.550. For now, this level also works a double bottom support level as the USD/JPY prices are pushing higher. 

On the uppers side, the USD/JPY may find resistance at 108.700, and bullish breakout of this level can extend buying until 108.900 level today. Consider taking sell positions below 108.900 to target 108.500 today. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Crude Oil Bearish Retracement In Play – Brace for a Bullish Trade!

The WTI crude oil prices slightly dropped even after positive headlines regarding the United States and China trade news. Chinese state media Xinhua reported that Chinese Vice Premier Liu He

The WTI crude oil prices slightly dropped even after positive headlines regarding the United States and China trade news. Chinese state media Xinhua reported that Chinese Vice Premier Liu He

The WTI crude oil prices slightly dropped even after positive headlines regarding the United States and China trade news. Chinese state media Xinhua reported that Chinese Vice Premier Liu He discussed an incomplete deal with U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer in a phone call during the weekend.

Both sides had helpful discussions about “each other’s core concerns,” the article said. The USTR confirmed the call took place. Besides, the Asian stocks got the support due to the headlines, but unfortunate WTI crude oil prices were little impacted.

A monthly report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) was cited as a potential catalyst for selling today. The IEA estimated that non-OPEC supply growth would grow to 2.3 million barrels per day (BPD) next year compared with 1.8 million BPD in 2019.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 54.44
S2 55.98
S1 56.99
Pivot Point 57.53
R1 58.54
R2 59.08
R3 60.63

The oil prices remained under pressure over the data that showed weekly U.S. crude stockpiles surge by 2.2 million barrels, crossing the forecast of a 1.649 million-barrel rise.

WTI Crude Oil – Trade Idea 

Consider taking buying positions above $57.20 with a take profit at $57.75 and stop loss of $56.90.

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, November 18 – Major Trade Setups – Risk-on Sentiment In Play

On Monday, the market trades with a risk-on sentiment over the faded safe-haven appeal. Significant forex pairs indicated time on Monday as traders observed to whether Washington and Beijing can

On Monday, the market trades with a risk-on sentiment over the faded safe-haven appeal. Significant forex pairs indicated time on Monday as traders observed to whether Washington and Beijing can

On Monday, the market trades with a risk-on sentiment over the faded safe-haven appeal. Significant forex pairs indicated time on Monday as traders observed to whether Washington and Beijing can promptly approve an agreement to end a trade war that has been a drag on word’s economic growth.

  EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair hit the bullish track and currently trading at 1.1061, As of writing, the pair consolidates between the range of 1.1048 – 1.1065 on the day and hit the weekly highs at 1.1065 mainly due to greenback weakness against the bucket of currencies. The buyers join the latest bullish trend, awaiting fresh trading clues and keep their eyes on ECB-speak.

On the EUR-side of the equation, the Eurozone October inflation came in as expected, up by 0.7% YoY and core CPI up by 1.1%, which supported the continuing bullish drive in the common currency.

Looking forward, the buyers target the 100-DMA now located at 1.1093 should the recovery momentum continue. On the other side, the 50-DMA at 1.1042 could defend the downside if the ECB speakers support dovish expectations. However, the United States and China’s trade progress will keep under the spotlight for getting the fresh impulse.

    


Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.0957

S2 1.0999

S1 1.1026

Pivot Point 1.1042

R1 1.1069

R2 1.1084

R3 1.1126

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD proceeds to trade higher, violating the resistance level of 1.1000, which now is working as a support. On the 4 hour timeframe, the EUR/USD has three white soldiers candlestick pattern, which is signaling chances of further buying in the EUR/USD. At the moment, the EUR/USD is holding at the resistance level of 1.1065 as above this; the pair can continue to soar until 1.1080. So consider staying bullish above 1.1065 and bearish below the same level today.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair consolidates in the range of 12909 – 1.2933, representing 0.20% gains on the day. As of writing, the pair is currently trading at 1.2925 and faced a month old falling trend line resistance due to the increasing expectations of Tory leadership after the December elections. As well as the hardship for the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson, limit the further pair’s upside.

The market’s trade sentiment still slows with the United States’ ten-year treasury yields taking rounds to 1.82%, whereas most Asian shares are flashing mixed signals.

Looking forward, traders will now keep their eyes on British prime minister Boris Johnson’s speech at Confederation of British Industry’s annual conference for getting a new direction to move ahead. At the economic calendar front, the US NAHB Housing Market Index figures for November, expected to remain at 71, will keep the thin line of statistics. However, trade and political headlines will keep under the spotlight.


Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2793

S2 1.2845

S1 1.2874

Pivot Point 1.2897

R1 1.2926

R2 1.2949

R3 1.3001

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD continues to trend upward to test our previously suggested upper corner of a wide trading range of 1.2970 – 1.2780. 

The MACD and RSI are lingering in overbought territory as their values linger at 0 and 50, respectively. Besides this, the chances of bullish correction are becoming very strong. 

At the time, the GBP/USD trades at 1.2940 level, and it may find support immediate support around 1.2920. I will consider taking buying positions above 1.2920 and bearish positions if this level breaks on the lower side. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair consolidates in the narrow range between the 108.75 and 109.00, mainly due to intensifying tensions in Hong Kong and lack of trade war hopes.

So, the risk-off sentiment raises so far, with S&P 500 futures down -0.15%, Treasury yields falling almost 0.50%, whereas the Asian equity markets trade with moderate losses. The Japanese Yen currency still on the supported track and keeping a break above the 109 range.

If talking about the greenback, the U.S. Dollar still on the bearish track due to the losses in the Treasury yields. As in result, this situation sending lower the USD/JPY currency pair. Moreover, the investors are on the waiting mood and await some transparency regarding the United States and China trade deal and FOMC minutes for fresh trading direction, because the United States economic calendar seem light during this week.

As of writing, the U.S. Dollar Index traded 0.1% lower to 97.810. The Federal Reserve will announce the minutes of it’s October meeting on Wednesday, and several Federal Reserve policymakers are scheduled to speak before the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday.


Daily Support and Resistance

S3 107.96

S2 108.33

S1 108.55

Pivot Point 108.7

R1 108.93

R2 109.08

R3 109.45

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading at 108.90, crossing over 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This level also marks a double bottom resistance level, but that has now been violated and may keep the USD/JPY pair supported today.

The violation of the 108.90 level can extend buying until 109.200. The MACD and RSI are also supporting the bullish trend in the USD/JPY pair. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Gold’s Bullish Channel Supports – U.S. China Sentiments Remains Mixed!

On Friday, gold prices declined the demand for safe-haven assets fell remarks from White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow that the United States is pretty close to settling an interim

On Friday, gold prices declined the demand for safe-haven assets fell remarks from White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow that the United States is pretty close to settling an interim

On Friday, gold prices declined the demand for safe-haven assets fell remarks from White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow that the United States is pretty close to settling an interim trade agreement with China.

Fresh certainties regarding the United States and China trade deal returned after the goodwill gestures by the Dragon nation as China lifts the restrictions on the United States poultry imports. Additionally, the headlines of the restart trade talks later on the day also improve the risk-on market.

At the Kudlow front, the latest comments from the White House Economic Adviser Kudlow announce that we are very close to getting the trade deal with China, so in the consequences, the bounce-back came in the U.S. Treasury yields and S&P 500 futures.


XAU/USD – Daily Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1,465.42    1,476.06
1,459.45    1,480.73
1,448.81    1,491.37
Pivot Point 1,470.09

On the 2 hour chart, the yellow metal gold is trading in a bullish channel, which is supporting it around 1,461 level along with a resistance level of 1,473. The new 2-hour candle is bullish marabou, which signals the chances of a bullish trend in gold.

The leading indicators, such as MACD and RSI, are still trading below 0 and 50 level, supporting the bearish bias in gold. With that being said, gold prices may drop further until 1,452 level of it manages to give us closing below 1,460 level.

Likewise, the bullish breakout of 1,473 resistance opens further room for buying until 1,479.

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, November 15 – Major Trade Setups – Core Retail Sales In Focus! 

The US greenback has stretched back a little versus the Japanese yen, as risk-off sentiment dominated the market. That being said, this market is highly sensitive to risk appetite, so

The US greenback has stretched back a little versus the Japanese yen, as risk-off sentiment dominated the market. That being said, this market is highly sensitive to risk appetite, so

The US greenback has stretched back a little versus the Japanese yen, as risk-off sentiment dominated the market. That being said, this market is highly sensitive to risk appetite, so with the multitude of problems that the global economy has right now/ Friday is a calm day ahead of the data aspect. There are no economic figures due from the United Kingdom to give the Sterling with direction.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

 

   

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

A day before, the EUR/USD currency pair traded on the bearish track as on the way a stable support level of 1.0990 was there to stop its movement. As we know, the German Q3 GDP showed the Eurozone’s largest member miss entering Techincal slowdown but overall look still darker. 

As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair seen on the bearish track and losing almost 160 ticks during the last ten trading session. At the starting of the month, we observed the 200-day Moving Average as a robust range for the EUR/USD pair to hit, which it proved, and any support from the 50 and 20-day Moving Average proved short-lived.

As of now, the EUR/USD currency pair continues to move lower with the 1.1000. The EUR/USD currency pair on the overselling track, but this may well slow down and not change its direction. A double at the 1.0879, while these targets remain near and achievable. 

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.0936

S2 1.0974

S1 1.0998

Pivot Point 1.1013

R1 1.1037

R2 1.1052

R3 1.109

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD continues to trade lower, maintaining a bearish bias after violating the support level of 1.1000. On the 4 hour timeframe, the EUR/USD has inside down candlestick pattern, which is signaling chances of further sell-off in the market. 

For the moment, the EUR/USD is holding above a crucial trading level of 1.0990 as below this; the pair can continue falling until 1.0960. So consider staying bearish below 1.0990 level today.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair sideways and taking round to 12840 mainly due to optimism surrounding the United Kingdom political plays face the greenback strength ahead of the United Kingdom Retail Sales Data for October. 

Friday is a calm day ahead of the data aspect. There are no economic figures due from the United Kingdom to give the Sterling with direction. The shortage of fundamentals leaves the Pound firmly in support of UK politics and the general voting opinion polls. At the moment, the Pound was down by 0.02% to $1.2879.

The GBP/USD was range-bound since Monday, in what has been a dull week, but the Cable showed a dramatic surge to 1.2880 level. The pair is still finding support around 1.2870, and below this, the GBP/USD can drop until 1.2860 level. On the higher side, we see resistance at 1.2925, which is defending the symbolic level of 1.3000.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2767

S2 1.2806

S1 1.2829

Pivot Point 1.2845

R1 1.2868

R2 1.2884

R3 1.2923

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD has come out of a broad trading range of 1.2970 – 1.2780 to trade at 1.2870 level. The MACD and RSI are holding in an overbought zone as their values stay at 0 and 50, respectively. With this, the odds of bearish correction are becoming very strong. 

At the time, the GBP/USD trades at 1.2880 level, and it may find support immediate support around 1.2870. I will consider taking buying positions above 1.2875 and bearish positions if this level breaks on the lower side. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The US greenback has dropped a bit versus the Japanese yen, tearing through the 200 day EMA but has a vital sum of support just below as well. I think we maintain the very slovenly trading, as markets have multiple concerns to trade with at the same time.

The US greenback has stretched back a little versus the Japanese yen, as risk-off sentiment dominated the market. That being said, this market is highly sensitive to risk appetite, so with the multitude of problems that the global economy has right now, it’s not difficult to imagine a situation where the Japanese yen remains to be a market that traders jump in and out of.

The latest update on the global macro figures is presenting a not so definite hint of the pernicious influence the protracted US-China trade war is becoming on the global economy.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 107.87

S2 108.37

S1 108.57

Pivot Point 108.86

R1 109.06

R2 109.36

R3 109.85

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading at 108.50, right below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. This level also marks double bottom support and may keep the USD/JPY pair supported today.

The violation of the 108.500 level can extend selling until 108.200. The MACD and RSI are also supporting the bearish trend in the USD/JPY pair. 

All the best!>

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Gold’s Bearish Channel Breakout Drives Bulls – What’s Next?

 

On Thursday, the precious metal gold surged to trade around 1,468 level extending gains to a third session, as soft Chinese figures and risk about whether Beijing and

 

On Thursday, the precious metal gold surged to trade around 1,468 level extending gains to a third session, as soft Chinese figures and risk about whether Beijing and

 

On Thursday, the precious metal gold surged to trade around 1,468 level extending gains to a third session, as soft Chinese figures and risk about whether Beijing and Washington will strike a trade agreement anytime soon depressed demand for riskier assets.

China and the United States are enduring “in-depth” talks on a first-phase trade deal, and cutting tariffs is a crucial requirement for settling, the Chinese commerce ministry stated.

The report came from the Wall Street Journal that the United States and China hit a snag over farm purchases. Notably, President Trump recently said that China committed to buying up to $50 billion in U.S. soybeans, pork, and other agricultural products as part of a phase one trade agreement.

However, China is unwilling to quantify its farm purchases now, as in result, instantly activated a risk-off sentiment in the American markets that destroyed the Wall Street party.

XAU/USD – Daily Technical Levels

Support     Resistance
1,458.56      1,467.83
1,453.59      1,472.13
1,444.32      1,481.4
Pivot Point 1,462.86

Gold has crossed over a triple top resistance level of 1,466. CLosing of the bullish candle above this level is suggesting the bullish trend is still strong. While the MACD and RSI are also supporting the buying trend in gold.

At the moment, gold has immediate support around 1,466 and above this, gold has the potential to target 1,472 and 1,479. Let’s consider staying bullish above 1,466 today. All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, November 14 – Major Trade Setups – German Prelim GDP In Focus! 

On Thursday, the safe-haven demand remains high as the trader’s eyes stay on the United States and China trade news to observe the impact on the riks sentiment, which continues

On Thursday, the safe-haven demand remains high as the trader’s eyes stay on the United States and China trade news to observe the impact on the riks sentiment, which continues

On Thursday, the safe-haven demand remains high as the trader’s eyes stay on the United States and China trade news to observe the impact on the riks sentiment, which continues to play an impactable role in the USD/JPY currency par prices. The market will closely be observing the US producer Prices Index an Unemployment Claims data, which is scheduled to release ahead of day 2 of Powell’s testimony.

At the Hong Kong front, the Hong Kong civil unrest and violence take the worst turn for the 4th-straight day on Thursday, after the police reported that a man dressed in black and aged in his 30s died.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

   

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair currently trading near the level of 1.1006 on the day. Even after the pair spot staying below 200-bar Simple Moving Average, the EUR/USD currency pair bounces off 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its October month upward. 

However, the buyers will likely wait for a bullish break of 200-bar moving Average at 1.1058 now, followed by 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and late-October lows surrounding 1.1065/75, to target 1.1100 marks.

On the positive side, if the GDP positive release, the pair may attempt recovery of 1.1040 and 1.156, the confluence zone of the 50 and 10-DMA. Buyers will likely try for the test of the 100-day Moving Average at 1.1100 on a continues break above the last. 

On the technical side, the pairs Techincal st up continues to favor the buyers because the EUR/USD pair still on the track to test the immediate support of mid-October lows near the 1.0991. While the break bellow will likely escalate selling pressure, because of the buyer’s eyes 1.0950 as the next support, the more bearish trend in pairs could hit the multi-year lows of 1.0879 over again.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.0958

S2 1.0983

S1 1.0996

Pivot Point 1.1008

R1 1.1021

R2 1.1033

R3 1.1058

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD continues to trade lower, maintaining a bearish bias after violating the support level of 1.1000. On the 4 hour timeframe, the EUR/USD has inside down candlestick pattern, which is signaling chances of further sell-off in the market. 

For the moment, the EUR/USD is holding below a crucial trading level of 1.1000 as below this; the pair can continue falling until 1.0960. So consider staying bearish below 1.1000 level today.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair sideways and taking round to 12840 mainly due to optimism surrounding the United Kingdom political plays face the greenback strength ahead of the United Kingdom Retail Sales Data for October.

Brexit party leader Nigel Farage’s denial of the Conservative’s request of standing down more than 317 candidates, earlier promised, will likely negatively affect the British Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson’s popularity. The United Kingdom’s (UK) PM Boris Johnson was recently hackled during a speech to the flood-affected area. Whereas, surveys regarding the December election keep showing Tories holding power.

Looking forward to October, UK Retail Sales could boost the GBP/USD demand if it hit the upbeat predictions. However, the market’s rush to risk-safety can increase the USD gains if the Fed Chair support upside momentum during his Testimony 2.0.

Overview of UK Retail Sales, the UK retail sales, scheduled to be released later this session at 0930 GMT, is forecasted to come in at 0.2% MoM in October, after no increase seen in September. Total retail sales are seen coming at 3.7% over the year in the reported month, up from 3.1% booked previously.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2767

S2 1.2806

S1 1.2829

Pivot Point 1.2845

R1 1.2868

R2 1.2884

R3 1.2923

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD is consolidating in the broad trading range of 1.2970 – 1.2780, while if we narrow it down, it becomes 1.2870 – 1.2785. The MACD and RSI have passed above 0 and 50, sequentially, indicating the probabilities of a downward movement in the GBP/USD. 

At the moment, the GBP/USD trades at 1.2835 level, and it may find support around 1.2785. I will consider taking buying positions above 1.2845 and selling below the same level today. 

 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair failed to hit the recovery track from thee 6-days lows of 108.65 and still stands near the range of 108.80 area, mainly due to on-going trade uncertainty between the United States and China. On the other hand, the pairs didn’t get any impact by the Japans Q3 GDP because of the renewed Sino-US trade war.

The Japanese Preliminary Q3 GDP rate slightly increased even less-than-expected across the time limit. However, the Japanese yen currency gave little attention to the sluggish figure releases. The Japanese yen continued getting support from the risk-off sentiment in Wall Street’s futures and global equities mainly after the United States and China trade tension again escalated during the overnight trading hours.

Trader’s eyes stay on the United States and China trade news to observe the impact on the riks sentiment, which continues to play an impactable role in the USD/JPY currency par prices. The market will closely be observing the US producer Prices Index an Unemployment Claims data, which is scheduled to release ahead of day 2 of Powell’s testimony.

At the Hong Kong front, the Hong Kong civil unrest and violence take the worst turn for the 4th-straight day on Thursday, after the police reported that a man dressed in black and aged in his 30s died.

Despite the Hong Kong confusion and renewed US-China trade tensions, the market mood looks to be developing over the last, with S&P 500 futures having flashed green as well as the Japanese stocks. This has helped put a minor buying under USD/JPY that is now trading in session highs near the 108.85 regions.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 107.87

S2 108.37

S1 108.57

Pivot Point 108.86

R1 109.06

R2 109.36

R3 109.85

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading at 108.70, right above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. This level also marks double bottom support and may keep the USD/JPY pair supported today.

The violation of the 108.700 level can extend selling until 108.500, the 61.8% Fibo level today. The MACD and RSI are also supporting the bearish trend in the USD/JPY pair. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Gold Violates Bearish Channel – Positive CPI Weights 

During the European session, the yellow metal gold prices climbed following a speech by U.S. President Donald Trump. Most of the safe-haven appeal triggered after President Trump denies rolling back

During the European session, the yellow metal gold prices climbed following a speech by U.S. President Donald Trump. Most of the safe-haven appeal triggered after President Trump denies rolling back

During the European session, the yellow metal gold prices climbed following a speech by U.S. President Donald Trump. Most of the safe-haven appeal triggered after President Trump denies rolling back tariffs, denting the hopes for a positive indication on a U.S.-China trade agreement, provoking traders to explore safe-haven assets.

Just a few minutes back, the U.S. Consumer Price Index accelerated 0.4% in October on a seasonally adjusted data after being stable in September. 

Over the year, the all items index grew 1.8% ere seasonal changes. The energy index rose 2.7% in October following recent monthly drops and deemed for more than half of the rise in the seasonally adjusted all items index. The positive surge in CPI is weighing on the gold prices, and it may keep gold bearish during the U.S. session until the release of Fed Chair Powell. 

XAU/USD – Daily Technical Levels

Support     Resistance 

1,447.89     1,462.71

1,439.38     1,469.02

1,424.57     1,483.83

Pivot Point 1,454.2

Technically, gold prices have violated the bearish channel, which was extending resistance at 1456 area. The bullish breakout has lead gold prices below 1,466 level, which also marks the double top level. The RSI and MACD here are in favor of a bullish bias. 


So here’s a thing, the buyers may enter for further buying above 1,467 level to target 1,474. Elsewhere, gold can trade bearish below 1,466 level today. On the lower side, support can be seen around 1,454. All the best!  

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, November 13 – Major Trade Setups – Fed Chair Speech In Focus! 

On Wednesday, the global financial markets await the Fed Chair speech along with the CPI (Consumer Price Index) data from the U.K and the U.S. The United States and China

On Wednesday, the global financial markets await the Fed Chair speech along with the CPI (Consumer Price Index) data from the U.K and the U.S. The United States and China

On Wednesday, the global financial markets await the Fed Chair speech along with the CPI (Consumer Price Index) data from the U.K and the U.S. The United States and China trade front, the trade concerns between the United States and China are getting severe, with the Trump administration warned to increase the tariff but not until the deal gets confirmation.

We look for CPI to decline from 1.8% y/y in September to 1.5% in October (mkt 1.6%), in line with the BoE’s forecast from November. Let’s take a more in-depth look at the technical side of the market. 

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

  

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair found on the high range of 1.10 handle, as of now, the pair consolidate in the narrow range around the 1.10 handle because tye buyers await for the key inflation report and Federal Reserve Chair Powells statement for the next move.

As of writing, the currency pair is found slightly supported from the pause in the greenback strength after the United States President Trump’s latest comments failed to offer any detail on the United States and China trade agreement and due to this partial trade deal’s uncertainty increased. The U.S. Dollar index trades flat near the 98.30, consolidating the increase to a 4-week high of 98.42.

On the technical side, the 5-Moving Average barrier at 1.1025 is could to reduce the recovery attempts, whereas the bearish sees the next support around the 1.0950 level. The sub-1.1000 levels could be tested on a likely increase in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is scheduled to release at 1330 GMT.

Daily Support and Resistance    

S3 1.0944

S2 1.0981

S1 1.0995

Pivot Point 1.1017

R1 1.1031

R2 1.1053

R3 1.1089

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is trading with a slightly bullish bias since it violated the resistance level of 1.1025. On the 4 hour timeframe, the EUR/USD has formed a bullish engulfing candle, which is signaling chances of further buying in the market. 

For the moment, the EUR/USD is concentrating on a critical trading level of 1.1060, which is probable to hold the EUR/USD bearish below this mark. Below this level, the EUR/USD may gain support at 1.1025 and 1.1000 level today. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair found near the 1.2850, notably the lack of significant impetus from the United Kingdom, has recently limited the cable pairs movement, as well as the market traders on the waiting track ahead of the critical data and events. 

After the mixed figures of the British employment details, the GBP/USD currency pair saw another pressure on the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Jonhson to release a report regarding the Russian interference in the 2016 Brexit referendum. 

On the United States and China trade front, the trade concerns between the United States and China are getting severe, with the Trump administration warned to increase the tariff but not until the deal gets confirmation.

We look for CPI to decline from 1.8% y/y in September to 1.5% in October (mkt 1.6%), in line with the BoE’s forecast from November MPR. The complete deceleration in inflation is due to energy prices; household energy prices will be affected by the OFGEM cap, while fuel prices may decline a bit on a y/y basis. Stripping out the volatility, we’re looking for core CPI to hold steady at 1.7% y/y (Mkt 1.7%).

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2728

S2 1.2787

S1 1.2816

Pivot Point 1.2845

R1 1.2875

R2 1.2904

R3 1.2962

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD appears to have broken the bearish trendline resistance of 1.2825 upon the release of optimistic GDP figures. The MACD and RSI have crossed above 0 and 50, respectively, implying the odds of a bullish bias in the GBP/USD. The Cable may find immediate support at 1.2845 level. But the closing of candles above 1.2845 area suggests a strong chance of buying trend continuation. 

Consider taking buying positions above 1.2845 and selling below the same level today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair still consolidates in the bearish range of 109 handles, and traders are found on the waiting track even after the latest updates regarding Hong Kong protests and the United States and China trade deal.

Whereas the intensifying uncertainty between the United States and China trade deal as well as the protest unrest in Hong Kong, keep leaving bearish pressure on the USD/JPY currency pair, the overall hawkish sentiment at the Federal Reserve limits the bearish off-late.

Officials from the United States, including President Donald Trump and White House Economic Adviser Larry Kudlow, just show a willingness to raise the tariff on the Chinese goods if the round-1 talks fail. Moreover, the political also did clear that the existing tariff could reduce but not until the deal gets confirmation.

Market traders are now planning for the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powells statement in front of the Joint Economic Committee, and traders will closely follow Fed speak, whereas the market is also waiting for the October month Consumer Prices Index.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 108.33

S2 108.7

S1 108.86

Pivot Point 109.07

R1 109.23

R2 109.44

R3 109.81

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY pair is forming higher’s high and higher’s low pattern on the 4-hour chart, which suggesting bullish bias among traders. The USD/JPY has immediate support at 108.900 and resistance at 109.400. 

The MACD is forming histograms in the bearish zone, but the recent histogram is likely to develop above 0, and it may drive more buying until 109.450 today. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Gold Bearish Channel Dominates – U.S. China Trade Issue Trending!

On Tuesday, the precious metal gold prices edged lower as forecasts of resolute trade discussions between the United States and China supported risk desire, while traders pocketed profits ahead of

On Tuesday, the precious metal gold prices edged lower as forecasts of resolute trade discussions between the United States and China supported risk desire, while traders pocketed profits ahead of

On Tuesday, the precious metal gold prices edged lower as forecasts of resolute trade discussions between the United States and China supported risk desire, while traders pocketed profits ahead of further updates.

The precious metal gold also sank 0.2%, to $1,454.20 per ounce as investors moved their funds into the stock markets, the higher-yielding assets these days. Consequently, the global stock indices surged higher on Tuesday as traders anticipated a speech by President Trump on trade policy during the U.S. session.

Investors will be closely following Trump’s speech to have a clear stance on the U.S. China tariff rollover, and the EU auto industry tariffs delay.

EU leaders said Trump was supposed to declare this week he was holding the tariff ruling on cars and auto parts shipped from the European Union probably for another six months. That’s raising anticipations about the president’s speech following in the day about the long-drawn trade war with China.

XAU/USD – Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance
1,452.53    1,469.27
1,446.03    1,479.51
1,429.29    1,496.25
Pivot Point 1,462.77

Gold is trading in a bearish channel, which is keeping it supported around 1,448 level. It’s also extending resistance at 1,456 area. The bearish channel clearly suggests strong chances of further sell-off in the gold prices.

On the lower side, the bearish breakout of 1,448 level can extend selling further until 1,444 level. But for the bearish breakout, we need a solid reason that we can’t expect after looking at today’s economic calendar.

Therefore, consider staying bearish below 1,456 and bullish above 1,448 to capture choppy trading in gold. All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, November 12 – Major Trade Setups – Trump’s Speech Ahead! 

The buck slipped along with the global stock, which plunged on Monday following the U.S. President Donald Trump’s comments during the weekend tore investor confidence that Washington and Beijing would

The buck slipped along with the global stock, which plunged on Monday following the U.S. President Donald Trump’s comments during the weekend tore investor confidence that Washington and Beijing would

The buck slipped along with the global stock, which plunged on Monday following the U.S. President Donald Trump’s comments during the weekend tore investor confidence that Washington and Beijing would immediately reach an agreement to settle their debilitating trade war.

At the Sino-US trade front, the United States and China trade tension flashing continuously, whereas the United States interference in the Hong Kong protests awaits China’s response fro fresh risk-off. The market’s risk-tone continues slowly, with the United States ten-year treasury yields being around 1.92%, with most Asian stocks flashing mixed signals. 

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair consolidates in the narrow range of 1.1030 and 1.1050 due to the greenback continues its recovery rally. As of writing, the pair mostly trades near the 1.10 range during on the day, because of USD strength. As we all well aware, the uncertainty surrounding the United States and China trade deal and Hong Kong’s civil protest worries resurged the demand for safety, so that’s why the market was favoring the U.S. currency.

Whereas, on the EUR-side of the equation, the uncertain result of the Spanish general election combined with Eurozone economic growth worries continues to remain a bearish impact on the common currency.

Markets now traders keenly await the German macro news and some new transparency on the US-China trade front for fresh trading impulse, whereas Trump’s speech scheduled today at 1700 GMT will likely also direct the next moves in the spot.

Daily Support and Resistance  

S3 1.0953

S2 1.0992

S1 1.1006

Pivot Point 1.1031

R1 1.1045

R2 1.107

R3 1.1108

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is trading with a slightly bullish bias since it violated the resistance level of 1.1025. On the 4 hour timeframe, the EUR/USD has formed a bullish engulfing candle, which is signaling chances of further buying in the market. 

For the moment, the EUR/USD is concentrating on a critical trading level of 1.1060, which is probable to hold the EUR/USD bearish below this mark. Below this level, the EUR/USD may gain support at 1.1025 and 1.1000 level today. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair got limited benefits from the United Kingdoms’ optimism because the pairs await fresh hints from the monthly employment figures whereas taking the buying to 1.2865. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair currently trading at 1.2865.

At the Sino-US trade front, the United States and China trade tension flashing continuously, whereas the United States interference in the Hong Kong protests awaits China’s response fro fresh risk-off. The market’s risk-tone continues slowly, with the United States ten-year treasury yields being around 1.92%, with most Asian stocks flashing mixed signals. 

There will likely be a moderate weakness in Claimant Count estimates amid no change in Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings. After the data, the speech from the United States President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve speech will be closely followed to decide the future of the United States and China trade relations and the U.S. Federal Reserve futures moves, respectively.

Daily Support and Resistance   

S3 1.2676

S2 1.2732

S1 1.2754

Pivot Point 1.2789

R1 1.281

R2 1.2845

R3 1.2901

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD appears to have broken the bearish trendline resistance of 1.2825 upon the release of optimistic GDP figures. The MACD and RSI have crossed above 0 and 50, respectively, implying the odds of a bullish bias in the GBP/USD. 

On the lower side, the GBP/USD may find immediate support at 1.2845 level. But the closing of candles above 1.2845 area suggests strong chance of buying trend continuation. 

Consider taking buying positions above 1.2845 and selling below the same level today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair found on the bullish track and taking buying near the 109.20 on the day, despite the trade tension between the United States and China, and protest in Hong Kong. The greenback strength could be the reason behind the pair’s bullish trend. Notably, the recovery of U.S. bond trading, greenback sent higher.

However, investors broadly avoided the United States’ expectations regarding the tariff roll back from the European Union automobiles and positive comments from the Japanese Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura as well.

Whereas the traders will keep their eyes on trade and Hong Kong worries, as well as the United States President Donald Trump comments from the Economic Club of New York, lunch will also keep under the eyes. The United States President is broadly expected to clarify the much needed United States and China trade relations and the U.S. tariff policy.

Looking forward, Focus will be on Trump’s speech and speeches by the Federal Reserve officials, which is scheduled to speak later on Friday, in the absence of relevant macro data out of the U.S. President is scheduled to speak at the Economic Club of New York around 1700 GMT.

Daily Support and Resistance   

S3 108.48

S2 108.88

S1 109.08

Pivot Point 109.28

R1 109.47

R2 109.68

R3 110.07

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On the 4 hour chart, the USD/JPY pair is forming higher’s high and higher’s low pattern, which suggesting bullish bias among traders. The USD/JPY has immediate support at 108.900 and resistance at 109.400. 

The MACD is forming histograms in the bearish zone, but the recent histogram is likely to develop above 0, and it may drive more buying until 109.450 today. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, November 11 – Major Trade Setups – U.S. China Trade War In Play!

The U.S. dollar was marginally softer against the single currency euro and safe-haven currency Japanese yen, following some traders caution that the agreement could still unravel. The dollar index traded

The U.S. dollar was marginally softer against the single currency euro and safe-haven currency Japanese yen, following some traders caution that the agreement could still unravel. The dollar index traded

The U.S. dollar was marginally softer against the single currency euro and safe-haven currency Japanese yen, following some traders caution that the agreement could still unravel. The dollar index traded at $1.1020 versus the shared currency euro and 109.23 against the Japanese yen. 

Whereas the Chinese yuan was marginally lower in the offshore business, but still on the strong opponent of 7-per-dollar at 6.9892 in foreign trade. 

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair stops its further declining streak after a 5-day losing trend. As of writing, the pair is currently trading above the 1.1000, having hit the 3-weeks low of 1.1017 last Friday. Notably, the EUR/USD pair remains cautious, mainly due to the greenback strength.

As of now, the pair is fluctuating up and down between a 10-pips narrow range during the Monday. The markets await fresh clues regarding the United States and China trade relations for a new direction, as well as the big economic releases from both sides of Atlantic the week ahead for the next direction. The United States docket discusses the releases of the CPI data and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s testimony, whereas the EUR calendar headlines the Eurozone growth figures.

Looking ahead, the pair could keep its range trade steady mainly due to the holiday in the United States, the markets of the United States closed in the wake of Veterans Day. However, the greenback will continue its progress due to fresh trade-related development.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.0953

S2 1.0992

S1 1.1006

Pivot Point 1.1031

R1 1.1045

R2 1.107

R3 1.1108

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is consolidating with a bearish bias since it broke the bullish trendline support around the 1.1025 area. On the 4 hour timeframe, the pair has formed strong bearish channels, which are signaling chances of further selling in the market. 

At the moment, the EUR/USD is focusing on a crucial trading level of 1.1060 level, which is likely to keep the EUR/USD bearish under this. Below this level, the EUR/USD may gain support at 1.1025 and 1.1000 level today. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair hit the 3-week low mainly due to Moodys cut the United Kingdom outlook unfavorable. By the way, the pair stop its further bearish movement because of UK GDP. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair currently trading around 1.2793.

The U.S. Dollar continues its recovery rally due to the global investors try safety and cautious in the wake of intensifying uncertainty surrounding the United States and China trade deal and protests in Honk Kong. Moreover, the reason behind the greenback safe-haven demand could be the geopolitical tension in the Middle East.

On the other hand, Chancellor’s defeat to justify the criticism of the opposition Labour party’s spending plan increased the uncertainties regarding the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Jonson’s lead during the snap elections, which is scheduled to happen in December.

As of data, the UK GDP is expected to increase to +0.3% from -0.2% on QoQ; the YoY figures might decrease to 1.1% from 1.3%. Moreover, Manufacturing Production could shrink -0.2% against -0.7% prior, whereas Industrial Production could increase to -0.1% from -0.6%.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2676

S2 1.2732

S1 1.2754

Pivot Point 1.2789

R1 1.281

R2 1.2845

R3 1.2901

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD seems to have violated the sideways channel following the Bank of England policy decision. The MACD and RSI have crossed below 0 and 50, respectively, suggesting the chances of a bearish trend in the GBP/USD. On the downside, the GBP/USD has closed one of the candles below 1.2785 area, which suggests strong chances of a bearish trend continuation. 

Next support prevails around 1.2750, and the violation of this level can extend sell-off until 1.2685. 

 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair remained on the bullish track and got the additional boost and reached near the multi-month high mainly due to Japan Machinery Orders declined below the expected figures. As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair currently trading at 109.20 on the day.

Japan’s September month Machinery Orders against market forecasts on MoM and YoY basis. Whereas the monthly numbers dropped below +0.9% expected and -2.4% before -2.9%, yearly numbers seem a bit less negative with +5.1% growth figures against 7.9% consensus and -14.5% earlier readouts.

While looking at the lack of the United States traders from markets, mainly due to the Veterans Day holiday, along with the recent data, US investors have no key event and statistics for publishing on the economic calendar.

Notably, the lowest inflation figures from the United States and the Federal Chairs’ testimony may also force the traders to keep away from the big position before the event.

    

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 108.48

S2 108.88

S1 109.08

Pivot Point 109.28

R1 109.47

R2 109.68

R3 110.07

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On the technical side, the USD/JPY currency pair had shown the wrong direction to the buyers of the market during the last 48 hours as you know the pair dropped in 48 hours against the buyer’s expectations. The pair closed above the 200-day M.A. on Monday to fall back below the long-term M.A. in the overnight trade. Consider staying bearish below

109.100 today to target 108.850 and 108.700. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily November 08– Major Trade Setups – Risk on Sentiment Dominates 

The United States and China trade deal optimism supported the risk-on markets and came to a massive increase in the US Treasury yields, sent the greenback higher.

A report came

The United States and China trade deal optimism supported the risk-on markets and came to a massive increase in the US Treasury yields, sent the greenback higher.

A report came

The United States and China trade deal optimism supported the risk-on markets and came to a massive increase in the US Treasury yields, sent the greenback higher.

A report came that both countries decided to cancel some existing tariff if the round-1 trade deal happened on a positive outcome. It should be noted that the United States’ ten-year yields increased from 1.80% to 1.97%. This is the highest level since August 1.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair remains to flash red and dropped for the 4th-consecutive day but didn’t hit below the 50-day average level. Moreover, the bullish trend could be seen in the pair because the Treasury yields are increasing in the wake of mild losses in the US dollar index futures.

As we all well aware, the shared currency faced many selling pressure yesterday, as anticipated, and fell near the 50-day average range at 1.1038. The US Treasury yields increased, sent the US Dollar higher, due to the fresh United States and China trade optimism. 

A report came that both countries decided to cancel some existing tariff if the round-1 trade deal happened on a positive outcome. It should be noted that the United States’ ten-year yields increased from 1.80% to 1.97%. This is the highest level since August 1.

Currently, the futures on the S&P 500 are reporting a 0.18% decline, and the United States ten-year yield is seen at 1.91%, down 6-basis points from Thursday’s high.

On the flip side, the German trade balance and the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index are scheduled to release and will likely leave an impact on the EUR/USD pair. As well as, the China trade data fro October release during the Asian trading hours represented declines in the imports.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.1018

S2 1.1047

S1 1.1056

Pivot Point 1.1075

R1 1.1084

R2 1.1103

R3 1.1131

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is consolidating with a bearish bias since it broke the bullish trendline support around 1.1125 area. On the 4 hour timeframe, the pair has formed strong bearish channels, which are signaling chances of further selling in the market. 

At the moment, the EUR/USD is focusing on a crucial trading level of 1.1060 level, which is likely to determine the further direction of the pair. Below this level, the EUR/USD may gain support at 1.1040 and 1.1010 level today. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency currently flashing green, but the overall sentiment remains bearish. As of writing the GBP/USD currency pair presently trading at 1.2822, having increased just more than ten pips a few minutes ago because the banks of England’s monetary policy decision has calm down now.

The main reason behind the GBP/USD currency pairs bearish sentiment is that the monetary policy decision by the bank of England. The rates hit the weakest level since September 24 at 1.2793 due to the Bank of England MPC maintained the interest rates, whereas two members of Bank of England voted for a rate cut.

The wary comments from the Bank of England Governor Carney also hurt the GBP. He warned during signaling the risk of a global economic downturn that there would be losses in jobs and business closure in the wake of no-deal Brexit.

On the other hand, the United States and China trade deal optimism supported the risk-on markets and came to a massive increase in the US Treasury yields, sent the greenback higher. So, the GBP/USD currency pair also was seen at the bearish track due to the rise in demand for the US dollar.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2758

S2 1.2812

S1 1.2832

Pivot Point 1.2865

R1 1.2886

R2 1.2918

R3 1.2971

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD hasn’t improved enough as it extends to trade sideways ahead of the Bank of England policy decision. The MACD and RSI have crossed below 0 and 50, respectively, suggesting the chances of a bearish trend in the GBP/USD. But the thing is, investors are staying out of the market ahead of BOE rate. On the downside, the GBP/USD may see next support around 1.2786, and the violation of this level can extend sell-off until 1.2690. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair is flashing green even after the positive Japanese data and the risk-on sentiment in the equity markets. As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 109.35 and consolidates in the narrow range. By the way, the pair hit the high of 109.49 during the overnight trade. Notably, the pair gained its15-pips in the last few minutes.

As of data, Japan’s Household Spending surged 9.5% year-on-year in September, crossed the expected rise of 7.8% by a big margin and up significantly from the preceding month’s 1% rise. Labor Cash Earnings also rose 0.8% in annualized terms, bettering the 0.4% estimate.

However, the Japanese yen is not supportive, mainly due to the fears that the buyers spent more ahead of the October tax hike. Notably, the spending had increased by 7.2% in March 2014, month ahead of the prior sales tax increase, only to fall sharply and stay negative for more than a year.

According to the forecasting view, the USD/JPY currency pair will likely keep its tracking the action in the primary equity markets and US Treasury yields. The ten-year yield increased to 1.97% in the overnight trade since 3-months highs. China’s trade data may also affect the demand for the Japanese yen.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 108.34

S2 108.66

S1 108.82

Pivot Point 108.98

R1 109.14

R2 109.3

R3 109.62

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On the technical side, the USD/JPY currency pair had shown the wrong direction to the buyers of the market during the last 48 hours as you know the pair dropped in 48 hours against the buyer’s expectations. The pair closed above the 200-day MA on Tuesday to fall back below the long-term MA in the overnight trade. Consider staying bullish above 

108.700 today.

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Gold’s Bearish Trend Continues – Eyes On Double Bottom Pattern

On Friday, the precious metal gold prices crept lower, exhibiting one of the sharpest weekly drops in two and a half years. The stronger greenback pressured on gold prices while

On Friday, the precious metal gold prices crept lower, exhibiting one of the sharpest weekly drops in two and a half years. The stronger greenback pressured on gold prices while

On Friday, the precious metal gold prices crept lower, exhibiting one of the sharpest weekly drops in two and a half years. The stronger greenback pressured on gold prices while confidence about U.S.-China trade negotiations depressed bullion’s safe-haven bid.

Gold is declining as the buck is performing great, and few traders who purchased gold as a haven are running out. The dollar index was directed for a weekly profit as it profited from the report that China and the United States had admitted to rolling back taxes as part of a possible preliminary agreement to settle their trade war.

Nonetheless, some uncertainties arose as administrators inside and outside the White House rejected the idea of bending up punitive tariffs. The uncertainty limited bullion’s decline.

Meantime, European stock benchmarks departed from the prior session’s speak as contradictory signs from China and the United States on development made in trade discussions collapsed market expectations of a near-term truce.

Gold – XAU/USD – Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance 

1,484.27    1,495.6

1,477.98    1,500.64

1,466.65    1,511.97

Pivot Point: 1,489.31

On Friday, gold prices may find immediate support around 1,457 level. This level is extended by a double bottom level on the 4-hour chart. The MACD and RSI are exhibiting sharp bearish bias. 

Today, the closing of the 4-hour candle above 1,457 area is likely to offer us a bullish retracement. Until then, we can stay bearish below 1,467 area. All the best! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

WTI Crude Oil Completes 38.2% Retracement – What’s Next?

The WTI Crude oil prices dropped As the Energy Information Administration, EIA reported that the U.S. oil inventories increased unexpectedly last week.

The EIA said oil stockpiles rose by 7.9

The WTI Crude oil prices dropped As the Energy Information Administration, EIA reported that the U.S. oil inventories increased unexpectedly last week.

The EIA said oil stockpiles rose by 7.9

The WTI Crude oil prices dropped As the Energy Information Administration, EIA reported that the U.S. oil inventories increased unexpectedly last week.

The EIA said oil stockpiles rose by 7.9 million barrels, compared with expectations from analysts for an increase of about 1.5 million barrels.

From now, we expect many negative factors to increase. The risk we feel, especially with the recent crude oil inventories builds and reduction in demand anticipates, could be the bearish trend in the prices in the energy markets.

WTI crude oil prices got some support during the starting of this week due to expectations that China and the United States were close in the signing of the trade deal.

As per the recent updates, the report came that the signing of the deal may not be signed during this month and will likely happen later this month. By the way, it all depends on the discussion between the Sino-US.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 53.37
S2 55.09
S1 55.75
Pivot Point 56.8
R1 57.46
R2 58.52
R3 60.23

Technically, the WTI crude oil has completed a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement on the 4-hour chart. Closing of Doji candles above this level is suggesting bullish bias among traders. Most importantly, crude oil has recently closed a bullish engulfing pattern, which may drive sharp buying in the black crack.

On the upper side, crude oil may face resistance at 57.50, along with support at 56.20. I will be looking to trade a choppy session today until this range breakout.

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily November 07– Major Trade Setups – Brace for BOE Rate Decision! 

On Thursday, the dollar’s determined and blending strength will last well into next year, and even if an incomplete U.S.-China trade agreement is signed, it will at most hit the

On Thursday, the dollar’s determined and blending strength will last well into next year, and even if an incomplete U.S.-China trade agreement is signed, it will at most hit the

On Thursday, the dollar’s determined and blending strength will last well into next year, and even if an incomplete U.S.-China trade agreement is signed, it will at most hit the currency by 1-2% in the instant aftermath. 

Today, the focus of traders stays on the series of services PMI figures from the Eurozone. 

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair flashing red and dropped for 3-consecutive days, this bearish trend considered as the biggest losing streak since early September. As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair closed at 0.10% bearish during the Wednesday, as well as the pair was dropped by 0.33% and 0.48% during the Monday and Tuesday. The 3-day declining streak is the highest early September. 

At the time of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.1059, showing a 0.06% decline on the day. On the technical side, the technical outlook found on the bearish track with Wednesday close below 1.1073, which confirmed a double top bearish breakdown on the daily chart.

The possibility of Industrial production missing forecasts is high. That would support the bearish technical trend, probably increase the losses in the EUR. It should be noted that the upbeat expectation will likely a good sign of EUR currency. However, the strong close above 1.1073 is much needed to cancel the bearish trend.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.1018

S2 1.1047

S1 1.1056

Pivot Point 1.1075

R1 1.1084

R2 1.1103

R3 1.1131

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is trading with a bearish bias since it violated the bullish trendline support around 1.1125 area. On the 4 hour timeframe, the pair has formed strong bearish channels, which are signaling chances of further selling in the market. 

At the moment, the EUR/USD is focusing on a crucial trading level of 1.1060 level, which is likely to determine the further direction of the pair. Below this level, the EUR/USD may gain support at 1.1040 and 1.1010 level today. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair hit the bearish track and hit the weekly low as the cautious sentiment of the GBP traders due to Super Thursday. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair currently trading at 1.2837, as well as the greenback is increasing across the board and uncertainty regarding the trade deal between Sino-US also leaving an impact on the EUR/USD currency pair.

At the Sino-US trade front, the condition surrounding the round-1 trade deal between the United States and China seems doubtful recently. Although, thee U.S. Dollar supported from the move as new thinkings of the Federal Reserves pause in the rate cut cycle.

On the other hand, the investors will strictly be observed to the speech of UK Chancellor Sajid Javid and second-tier data from the U.S., coupled with comments by the President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Robert Kaplan which is scheduled to deliver later. 

Today, the whole focus stays on the Bank of England monetary policy report, where the BOE is widely supposed to keep the interest rate on the clutch at 0.75% today.  

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2758

S2 1.2812

S1 1.2832

Pivot Point 1.2865

R1 1.2886

R2 1.2918

R3 1.2971

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD hasn’t improved enough as it extends to trade sideways ahead of the Bank of England policy decision. The MACD and RSI have crossed below 0 and 50, respectively, suggesting the chances of a bearish trend in the GBP/USD. But the thing is, investors are staying out of the market ahead of BOE rate. On the downside, the GBP/USD may see next support around 1.2786, and the violation of this level can extend sell-off until 1.2690. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair are representing losses by 24-pips and currently trading at 108.74. As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair is on the bearish attitude due to the moderate declines in the U.S. index futures. Notably, the futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are reporting 0.12% and 0.17% losses; respectively, the uncertainty increased again between the United States and China trade deal.

While the United States ten-year treasury yields stop previous drops around 1.815% whereas the NIKKEI opens a tad lower after weak signals.

Whereas, the pairs traders cautious after the Tankan number & trade news. Tankan manufacturing poll, which tracks the steps of Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) essential Tankan quarterly survey, recently fell to the lowest since March 2013 during October.

At the Sino-US trade front, the condition surrounding the round-1 trade deal between the United States and China seems doubtful recently.

Looking ahead, the traders will keep their focus on the United States, and China round-1 phase, and Brexit details for getting fresh hints and clues as well as the trader will carefully observe the 2nd-tier data on the economic calendar. The greenback hit a bullish trend in the wake of the ISM beat. 

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 108.34

S2 108.66

S1 108.82

Pivot Point 108.98

R1 109.14

R2 109.3

R3 109.62

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On the technical side, the USD/JPY currency pair had shown the wrong direction to the buyers of the market during the last 48 hours as you know the pair dropped in 48 hours against the buyer’s expectations. The pair closed above the 200-day M.A. on Tuesday to fall back below the long-term M.A. in the overnight trade. Consider staying bullish above 

108.700 today.

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Gold Heading North for Bullish Retracement – Who’s Up for Buying Trade?

On Wednesday, the yellow metal gold trades bullish, recovering some losses following an almost 2% drop in the previous session. The demand for safe-haven gold seems to pick up again

On Wednesday, the yellow metal gold trades bullish, recovering some losses following an almost 2% drop in the previous session. The demand for safe-haven gold seems to pick up again

On Wednesday, the yellow metal gold trades bullish, recovering some losses following an almost 2% drop in the previous session. The demand for safe-haven gold seems to pick up again as the bullish rally in stock market delayed, and the result of U.S.-China trade discussions seemed doubtful once more.

Gold prices soared 0.1% to $1,485.07 per ounce, and bullish bias seems pretty solid today. Considering the U.S. -China trade war, the market is still experiencing uncertainty, and we still don’t comprehend if there is a deal yet. 

Besides, the global stock markets are trading neutral following a three-day bullish trend as traders extended to see incoming economic figures and awaited new improvements from U.S.-China trade discussions. Consequently, we may see investors taking their funds out from the stock markets and putting it in the safe-haven assets such as gold. 


Gold – XAU/USD – Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance 

1472.82 1501.14

1461.98 1518.62

1433.66 1546.93

Pivot Point 1490.3

Technically, the precious metal gold has formed a Doji /test bar on the 4-hour timeframe, which is suggesting chances of a bullish reversal in gold. The MACD and RSI have started to come out of the oversold zone, and now it’s suggesting chances of a bullish reversal in the market. Continuation of a bullish trend may extend further buy until 1,492 today. Consider taking buying positions above 1,482 and selling positions below 1,492 level. All the best! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, November 06– Major Trade Setups – European Data In Focus! 

On Wednesday, the U.S. dollar index is mostly unchanged, trading at 97.936 in early Asian trade, following a surge of 0.37% the previous day. The headlines came that the United

On Wednesday, the U.S. dollar index is mostly unchanged, trading at 97.936 in early Asian trade, following a surge of 0.37% the previous day. The headlines came that the United

On Wednesday, the U.S. dollar index is mostly unchanged, trading at 97.936 in early Asian trade, following a surge of 0.37% the previous day. The headlines came that the United States and China are still on the doubtfull track and so far from reaching even a phase one deal, whereas increasing uncertainty in the trade is China’s intact support for Hong Kong’s hard stand against protestors.

Today, the focus of traders stays on the series of services PMI figures from the Eurozone. 

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair found on the bearish track for the last two days. As of writing, the currency pair is currently trading at 1.1073; the neckline supports double top pattern on the daily chart.

The German data is scheduled to release at 06:00 GMT and expected to show factory orders, a vital impulse for Europe’s largest economy, which dropped for the 3rd consecutive month during September.

Moreover, IHS Markit’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for Germany dropped to 41.7 during September to register the weakest figures since 2009 and 8-straight monthly drop in output. The PMI was at 43.5 in August. A number below 50 indicates contraction.

As we all well aware, the EUR/USD currency pair is already trading on the slippery ground and having charted a bearish trend over the last two days. Therefore, the unexpected weaker factory orders data could allow a possible break below 1.1073.

On the positive note, the EUR currency will likely take buying if the critical data will release better than expected. However, the technical outlook would become bullish above 1.1180.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.0939

S2 1.1016

S1 1.1045

Pivot Point 1.1093

R1 1.1122

R2 1.1169

R3 1.1246

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The direct currency pair EUR/USD exhibited a dramatic selling from 1.1120 to 1.1065 area. Today this level is likely to extend support to the EUR/USD pair. New candles are Doji, which are followed by a strong bearish candle. This suggests that sellers are exhausted, and we may see buying behavior in the market. Consider taking buying positions above 1.1065 today.  

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair hit the bearish track despite increasing hopes for the Tory leader to win the snap election. Notably, probably the reason behind the bearish trend of cable pair is uncertainty surrounding the United States, and China trade deal keeps the U.S. Dollar strength intact. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair currently trading at 1.2880 on the day.

The headlines came that the United States and China are still on the doubtfull track and so far from reaching even a phase one deal, whereas increasing uncertainty in the trade is China’s intact support for Hong Kong’s hard stand against protestors.

As of data, the preliminary figures of the United States Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labour Coast for the 3rd quarter will be under the focus after the JOLTS Job Openings Challenged the U.S. employment optimism on Tuesday.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.277

S2 1.2828

S1 1.2856

Pivot Point 1.2887

R1 1.2915

R2 1.2946

R3 1.3004

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD hasn’t changed much so far as it continues to trade bullish due to the weaker U.S. dollar. The Cable has outraged the previous resistance level of 1.2930. Now the pair is likely to face fresh resistance around 1.3050 area. Consider staying bullish above 1.2941 today.  

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY Currency Pair currently trading at 109.04; the pairs hit the low of 109.00 despite the weak macro data. During the Tokyo session, the USD/JPY currency pair was trading near the 109.13 even after the BOJ minutes keeping easy money policy on the cards.

The final Jibun Bank Japan Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is seen at 49.7 in October from 52.8 in September on a seasonally-adjusted basis. The below-50 figures are the first since September 2016.

Despite the weak data approved by the Bank of Japan easing policy, the pair found at 109.20 and has slipped back to near 109.00, mainly due to the drop in the S&P 500 futures. As of writing, the index futures are representing the 0.15% decline.

Moreover, the USD/JPY currency pair may continue taking hints from the movement in the equities and Treasury yields. As of now, the ten-year yield is trading at 1.84%, representing two-basis-points declines from the session high of 1.86%.

Looking forward, traders will keep their eyes on Japan’s Jibun Bank Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for October. In contrast, few other Federal Reserve policymakers will carefully observe for additional direction during the latter part of the day. Market estimates suggest a soft PMI figure of 50.3 against 52.8 prior.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 108.05

S2 108.55

S1 108.85

Pivot Point 109.05

R1 109.35

R2 109.55

R3 110.05

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY traded bullish, placing a high around 109.200 level. As per the recent technical analysis of the pair, the USD/JPY is facing resistance around 109.20. Below this level, we can expect a continuation of the selling trend until 108.900 and 108.650.

Besides, the MACD and Stochastics are holding in the overbought range, suggesting chances of a bearish trend in the USD/JPY. Consider taking sell positions below 109 today as the immediate target stays at 108.650. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, November 05– Major Trade Setups – Services PMI Figures In Highlights! 

During the Asian session, the economic event well-occupied as it included October Service sector PMI figures coming out from China and Retail Sales Monitor figures from the United Kingdom. 

On

During the Asian session, the economic event well-occupied as it included October Service sector PMI figures coming out from China and Retail Sales Monitor figures from the United Kingdom. 

On

During the Asian session, the economic event well-occupied as it included October Service sector PMI figures coming out from China and Retail Sales Monitor figures from the United Kingdom. 

On the flip side, the Reserve Bank of Australia also released its November interest rate verdict and rate statement. The RBA decided to keep the policy unchanged today.  

On the geopolitical uncertainty aspect, chatter on trade contributed backing for riskier investments in the first section of the day. The focus today stays on the series of economic events from the U.S. and New Zealand. 

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

Economic Calendar by TradingView

   

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair still flashing red for the 3rd consecutive day and dropped to 1.2880 on the day. Apart from trade positive headlines, recent uncertainty is taking place, surrounding the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s victory in the snap election, which is scheduled to happen in December.

Besides that, not only the trade-positive comments from the United States and Chinese officials but the United States administration plan to remove some tariff on Chinese goods looks to support the existing risk-on sentiment. Everything boosts the chances of an incomplete trade deal between the United States and China.

A Labour-party member as the speaker of House of Commons and questions on the Prime Ministers’ performance in the report of Russia interference in British politics looks to hint additional difficulty for the United Kingdom citizen.

However, the British traders will keep their eyes on October month figures of services Purchasing Managers Index from the United Kingdom, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, second-tier jobs data, and trade balance will enhance the economic calendar of United States.


Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2769

S2 1.2835

S1 1.2858

Pivot Point 1.29

R1 1.2924

R2 1.2965

R3 1.303

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD hasn’t changed much so far as it continues to trade bullish due to the weaker U.S. dollar. The Cable has outraged the previous resistance level of 1.2930. Now the pair is likely to face fresh resistance around 1.3050 area. Consider staying bullish above 1.2941 today.  

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair flashing green and representing 0.17% gains on the day mainly due to positive news came regarding trade. Notably, the pair is currently hit the session highs above 108.77. Whereas the recovery in the pair came from Friday’s lows of 107.89 is bright.

Japanese traders enjoy the heightening chances of the Successful trade deal between the United States and China after a holiday. As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair takes buying to 108.75.

Besides, it’s not only the trade war-related positive comments from the United States and Chinese officials, but the United States administration plan to remove some tariff on Chinese goods looks to support the existing risk-on sentiment.

As a result, the United States’ ten-year Treasury yields continue the previous run-up to 1.8%, whereas Japan’s NIKKEI climbed 1.5% high at the start of Tuesday trading.

There is another reason behind the pair’s bullish trend, and that’s the support of greenback from the market. It came after the Fridays more than expected Nonfarm Payrolls that ward off Mondays’ adverse Factory Orders. Moreover, the U.S. dollar strong buying could be the new comments from the San Francisco Feds Mary C Daly, who declined the scope of the recession.


Daily Support and Resistance

S3 107.62

S2 108.05

S1 108.33

Pivot Point 108.49

R1 108.76

R2 108.92

R3 109.35

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY continues to trade bearish with the selling bias due to weakness in the U.S. dollar. The USD/JPY pair broke the bullish channel, which was holding the USD/JPY at 108.800 zones.

Three Black Crows candlestick patterns are suggesting chances of additional selling in the USD/JPY until 107.450 today. On the upper side, resistance is likely to stay at 108.350. Consider taking bearish trades under 108.350 today.  

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair found on the bearish outside day candlestick pattern even after the positive news came regarding the United States and China trade progress and seen the risk-on sentiment in the financial markets.

As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair dropped from 1.1175 to 1.1125 during the Monday and consolidating between the highs and lows. Notably, the bearish outside day candlestick pattern is broadly considered as a sign of a coming bearish reversal.

If the EUR/USD currency pair closes below the level of 1.1125 in today’s trading hour so then the trend reversal would be confirmed. By the way, the currency pair is currently trading at 1.1124, having hit the low of 1.1113 a few minutes ago.

The German economy badly damaged mainly due to the United States and China trade war, sending the Eurozone’s manufacturing powerhouse on the edge of the slowdown. So, the heightened chances of the United States and China makes a trade deal are supportive headlines for Eurozpn and Germany.

The market bought greenback during the Monday and will likely continue to buy more today, possibly due to the decrease of trade tensions that provides the Federal Reserve more opportunity to pause the rate cut series.


Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.1033

S2 1.1087

S1 1.1105

Pivot Point 1.114

R1 1.1158

R2 1.1194

R3 1.1247

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD has struck below the double top resistance point of 1.1175 and has lately closed series of neutral candles, which are suggesting chances of a bearish bias until the 1.1175 level gets violated. The pair still stays in the buying zone as the MACD, and RSI value is holding above 0 and 50, respectively. Consider staying bullish above 1.1153 to 1.1180 and 1.1220 today. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Gold Retests $1,514 Amid Trade War Concerns – Wait for Breakout! 

On Monday, the precious metal gold prices consolidate below the crucial trading level of 1,514 today. The growing risk appetite amongst traders, encouraged by confidence in U.S.-China trade discussions

On Monday, the precious metal gold prices consolidate below the crucial trading level of 1,514 today. The growing risk appetite amongst traders, encouraged by confidence in U.S.-China trade discussions

On Monday, the precious metal gold prices consolidate below the crucial trading level of 1,514 today. The growing risk appetite amongst traders, encouraged by confidence in U.S.-China trade discussions and diminishing fears of a global economic slowdown. Overall, the precious metal gold dropped 0.1% to $1,511.44 during the Asian session, while gold edged 0.2% higher at $1,513.70.

The U.S. Non-Farm Payroll of US rose above expectations, and the Manufacturing PMI was also increased but came in below expectations. Both these reports were highly awaited by the traders as they were leading indicators of the economy. The increased payrolls in October and modest improvement in the Business activities were notable developments and pointed the calm journey of the US economy in prevailing uncertainties.

Some optimism from US-China Trade talks also appeared in the market after the reports suggested that China & US trade representatives were under a constructive talks session on Friday. The conversation held between Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Chinese Vice President Liu regarding the next steps in the trade truce phase one deal.

XAU/USD – Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance 

1506.24 1519.68

1498.06 1524.94

1484.62 1538.38

Pivot Point 1511.5

At the moment, gold is facing substantial resistance at 1,514 level, and this level may decide the fate of precious metal today. Below 1,514 level, we may see gold prices falling towards 1,507, and the violation of 1,507 level can extend sell-off until 1,503. 

All the best! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, November 04– Major Trade Setups – Stronger NFP Supports Dollar!

The Dollar Index slipped 0.2% on the day to 97.12 on Friday, down for a fifth straight session. The euro edged up 0.1% to $1.1167 while the British pound was

The Dollar Index slipped 0.2% on the day to 97.12 on Friday, down for a fifth straight session. The euro edged up 0.1% to $1.1167 while the British pound was

The Dollar Index slipped 0.2% on the day to 97.12 on Friday, down for a fifth straight session. The euro edged up 0.1% to $1.1167 while the British pound was little changed at $1.2935. The Markit U.K. Manufacturing PMI bounced to 49.6 in October (48.2 expected) from 48.3 in September.

USD/JPY rebounded 0.2% from a three-week low to 108.19. USD/CAD fell 0.2% to 1.3136. The Markit Canada Manufacturing PMI climbed to 51.2 in October from 51.0 in September.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

  

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair flashing green and found on the recovery track mainly due to increasing optimism regarding the post-December election. As of writing, the cable pair currently trading at 1.2940.

At the time of writing, the GBP/USD pair was traded at 1.2937, up 0.03%, because traders await new ECB head Christine Lagarde’s first official speech, which is scheduled to happen later in the day.

Be it YouGov, Ipsos or Deltapoll suggest a clear lead of the Boris Johnson over the main opposition Labour Party regarding the general election on December 12. However, the United Kingdom Prime Minster Boris Johnson still looks doubtful due to Times mentions that the PM Boris Johnson will remove all fear regarding the no-Brexit deal from the Conservative party manifesto.

Moreover, the announcement came from the U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross during the Sunday that the licenses for the American firm to perform business with the blacklisted Chinese Huawei companies will be given very soon. Apart from this, he said that the United States and China already very delayed with phase one of the trade deal, so the agreement will likely be signed very soon.

As we know, there was a little movement in the risk-on market, possibly due to President Donald Trump did not attend the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Thailand.

Moreover, the market sentiment has been unstable since the start due to the lack of primary data, and the event and Japan market closed as well.

Looking forward, all investors will keep their eyes on the trade and Brexit headlines whereas also keeping the focus on Markit Construction Purchasing Managers Index from the United Kingdom and the United States Facote Orders for September. 

Market consensus supports an upbeat print of 44.00 against 43.3 from the British PMI, whereas also expecting the U.S. statistics to decrease further to -0.3% from -0.1% previous.



Daily Support and Resistance    

S3 1.2855

S2 1.2901

S1 1.292

Pivot Point 1.2946

R1 1.2966

R2 1.2992

R3 1.3037

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD hasn’t changed much so far as it continues to trade bullish due to the weaker U.S. dollar. The Cable has outraged the previous resistance level of 1.2930. Now the pair is likely to face fresh resistance around 1.3050 area. Consider staying bullish above 1.2941 today.  

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair consolidates in the narrow range near the 108.22, and the pair failed to reach on the bullish track of 100-day EMA as the global risk headlines were entirely in the market for the weekend.

However, the USD/JPY currency pair recently got support from the United States, and China trades positive news because the United States President Donald Trump recently hinted that the round-one of a trade deal would be signed in this month near the U.S. 

Moreover, the announcement came from the U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross during the Sunday that the licenses for the American firm to perform business with the blacklisted Chinese Huawei companies will be given very soon. Apart from this, he said that the United States and China already very delayed with phase one of the trade deal, so the agreement will likely be signed very soon.

While the United States’ ten-year treasury yield recently declined to multi-weeks lows mainly due to the United States Federal Reserve Bank, Indonesia and Central Bank of Brazil recently announced the 3rd consecutive rate cut in their benchmark rates.

Such as the markets of japan close today due to culture holiday so that investors will keep their focus on the risk catalysts like the United States and China trade-headlines and political plays regarding the Brexit for fresh impulse.

Notably, the risk tone in the market could keep recent recovery mainly due to the positive sentiment regarding trade deal between the United States and China and also due to receding political uncertainty regarding Brexit. However, any negative activity or headlines could be taken very seriously regarding the market’s uncertainty.

    


Daily Support and Resistance

    

S3 107.33

S2 107.74

S1 107.96

Pivot Point 108.14

R1 108.37

R2 108.55

R3 108.96

 USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY continues to trade bearish with the selling bias due to weakness in the U.S. dollar. The USD/JPY pair broke the bullish channel, which was holding the USD/JPY at 108.800 zones.

Three Black Crows candlestick patterns are suggesting chances of additional selling in the USD/JPY until 107.450 today. On the upper side, resistance is likely to stay at 108.350. Consider taking bearish trades under 108.350 today.  

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair flashing green and presently trading at 1.1170, in the wake of the United States and China trade patch-up certainty. Moreover, the EUR/USD pair could take more buying trends, mainly due to confidence surrounding the United States and China.

Whereas, the Shared currency hit the low of 1.1128 during the United States trading session on Friday due to U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls beats forecasted numbers. No Doubt, the decline was short-lived, and the EUR/USD currency pair closed on the bullish track near 1.1165.

So, the EUR/USD currency pair least resistance level is on the bullish range. Whereas, the pair’s bullish sentiment could be increased due to the United States and China trade optimism and the resulting risk-on in the equities. 

An announcement came from the U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross during the Sunday that the licenses for the American firm to perform business with the blacklisted Chinese Huawei companies will be given very soon. Apart from this, he said that the United States and China already very delayed with phase one of the trade deal, so the agreement will likely be signed very soon.

It should be noted that the Eurozone’s manufacturing powerhouse has got a big hit in the wake of the Sino-US trade war. Therefore, trade certainty between the United States and China could support the German economy and the EUR currency.

As of data, the final Manfutring PMI figures are scheduled to release across the EurozoneEurozone. Moreover, the Eurozone’s Sentix Investor Confidence for November is expected to release at 09:30 GMT, may leave any impact on the currency pair. Across the pond, the ISM-NY Business Conditions Index (Oct) and Factory Orders (Sep) data are scheduled for release. 



Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.1067

S2 1.1111

S1 1.1138

Pivot Point 1.1155

R1 1.1182

R2 1.1199

R3 1.1243

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD has struck below the double top resistance point of 1.1175 and has lately closed series of neutral candles, which are suggesting chances of a bearish bias until the 1.1175 level gets violated. The pair still stays in the buying zone as the MACD, and RSI value is holding above 0 and 50, respectively. Consider staying bullish above 1.1153 to 1.1180 and 1.1220 today. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Gold Triple Top Plays Well – NFP Figures Drive Sell-off! 

On Friday, gold prices slid as influential figures from China faded the risk appetite, while the U.S. labor market figure was robust. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced total nonfarm

On Friday, gold prices slid as influential figures from China faded the risk appetite, while the U.S. labor market figure was robust. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced total nonfarm

On Friday, gold prices slid as influential figures from China faded the risk appetite, while the U.S. labor market figure was robust. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced total nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment increased by a 128k jobs in October, surpassing forecast of 89k. Besides this, the headline number for the previous month witnessed an upward correction to 180k from 136k. 

Hence, the unemployment rate observed 0.1ppt growth to 3.6%, meeting forecast with the uptick associated with the increase in the labor force participation rate.

Next month, the U.S. & China were supposed to meet at APEC Summit in Chile to discuss a potential Phase-one Trade agreement between both economies. U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping were expected to sign the phase-one deal on that Summit. But due to domestic unrest, the meeting was canceled.

Trump announced that both countries would continue the negotiations and would sign a portion of that deal in the coming weeks.

On Thursday, Chinese Officials showed doubts on the prospects for an agreement and revealed that they were concerned about Trump’s impulsive nature and said that Trump might back out of even a limited deal at the last minute.



Gold – XAU/USD – Daily Technical Levels

Support     Resistance 

1501.56    1519.33

1490.17    1525.71

1472.4      1543.48

Pivot Point 1507.94

Gold is still facing triple top resistance at 1,514, which is keeping gold bearish below this level. On the lower side, gold has already completed 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1,50 area. But price reversed right after to close the candle above 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 1,507. Therefore, let’s consider staying bearish below 1,513 level today. All the best! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, November 01– Major Trade Setups – Trader Awaits NFP Figures! 

The U.S. dollar weakened further Thursday, amid uncertainties over a long-term U.S.-China trade deal and impeachment inquiry into President Trump. The ICE Dollar Index slid 0.2% on the day to

The U.S. dollar weakened further Thursday, amid uncertainties over a long-term U.S.-China trade deal and impeachment inquiry into President Trump. The ICE Dollar Index slid 0.2% on the day to

The U.S. dollar weakened further Thursday, amid uncertainties over a long-term U.S.-China trade deal and impeachment inquiry into President Trump. The ICE Dollar Index slid 0.2% on the day to 97.30, posting a four-day decline.

The euro edged up 0.1% to $1.1157. Official data showed that the eurozone third-quarter GDP grew 1.1% on the year, and CPI rose 0.7% on year in October, both were in-line with estimates.

The British pound advanced 0.3% to $1.2938. Later today, the Markit U.K. Manufacturing PMI for October will be released (48.2 expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair flashing green and consolidates near the recent gains to 1.2930 by the press time. Notably, the GBP/USD currency pair currently awaits the early-month data from the United States and the United Kingdom to extend the recent bullish moves beyond 8th-day tops.

As we all well aware that these days confirmed to be most damaging for the U.S. Dollar against the bucket of currencies, therefore the traders of U.S. Dollar await for fresh clues.

The main reasons behind the greenback weakness are a rate cut, which is delivered by the Federal Reserve for the 3rd time back to back during this year, and apart from this, the rising uncertainty between the United States and China trade matter and china joined mixed data from the United States.

At the GBP front, the British got support from the increasing possibilities of the United Kingdoms present Prime Minster Boris Johnson to continue to his post after the snap elections during the December. Also, there were strong expectations regarding the pair’s bullish trend as the United Kingdom Prime MInster Boris Johson has strong relations with the United States and can be trusted for good trade relations in the future.

At the data front, all eyes will be on October month Market Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) from the U.K. and employment stats, ISM Manufacturing PM. We look for the manufacturing PMI to increase from 48.3 to 48.9 during October, supported by inventory building ahead of the (at the time of the survey) Brexit deadline of October 31. 

Regarding the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), “U.S. Oct non-farm payrolls are anticipated to increase by 85,000 with the General Motors strike and decrease in census workers both a drag on headline employment increases. The jobless rate is seen to edge back up to 3.6% from a 50 year low 3.5%, and average hourly earnings growth is anticipated to stabilize at 3.0%yr after Sep’s sudden fall to 2.9%yr from 3.2%yr during August.



Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2821

S2 1.2881

S1 1.2906

Pivot Point 1.2941

R1 1.2966

R2 1.3001

R3 1.3062

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD hasn’t changed much so far as it continues to trade bullish due to the weaker U.S. dollar. The Cable has outraged the previous resistance level of 1.2930. Now the pair is likely to face fresh resistance around 1.3050 area. Consider staying bullish above 1.2941 today.  

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair flashing red and dropped from the high of 108.90 and just below the 200-day Moving Average, mainly due to report regarding trader war. Thus, investors were cautious and uncomfortable in the wake of news in which China said that we still open to continue trade talks after the first phase.

Notably, the benchmarks on Wall Street were stepped back from its highs due to the report that stated that Chinese legislators are spreading uncertainties regarding the matter of making a comprehensive long-term trade deal with the United States, even as both sides are close to reached on the trade deal.

Overall, the United States’ two-year treasury yields subsequently dropped from 1.62% to 1.52%, whereas the ten-year yield fell from 1.78% to 1.68%. After yesterday’s Federal Reserve interest rate cut and statement, markets were pricing in a Federal Reserve rate of 1.50% at the December conference and a terminal rate of 1.15% against 1.63% currently.



Daily Support and Resistance    

S3 106.63

S2 107.43

S1 107.73

Pivot Point 108.23

R1 108.52

R2 109.02

R3 109.82

 USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY continues to trade bearish with the selling bias due to weakness in the U.S. dollar. The USD/JPY pair broke the bullish channel, which was holding the USD/JPY at 108.800 zones.

Three Black Crows candlestick patterns are suggesting chances of additional selling in the USD/JPY until 107.450 today. On the upper side, resistance is likely to stay at 108.350. Consider taking bearish trades under 108.350 today.  

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

EUR/USD pair overall sentiment is bullish. But as for now, the EUR/USD currency pair consolidates in the narrow range near the 1.1170 after the post-EMU data releases in the Euroland.

As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair bullish trend is still strong and well sound, mainly after the advanced inflation figures in the Euroland. Also, headline consumer prices are anticipated to increase at an annualized 0.7% from 0.8% while Core prices are also rose somewhat to 1.1% from 1.0.

Moreover, the flash GDP numbers observe the economy in the bloc expanding 1.1% every year from 1.2% during the July and September month 

Whereas, the consecutive weakness in the U.S. dollar still support the EUR/USD currency pair while resumed trade concerns raised recently due to the Chinese officials remain doubtful on the long term trade deal with the United States.

On the technical side, the EUR/USD currency pair is rose by 0.19% at 1.1171 and faced the high resistance barrier at 1.1179 (monthly high Oct.21) seconded by 1.1186 (61.8% Fibo of the 2017-2018 rally) and finally 1.1197 (200-day SMA). At the bearish front, the breakdown of 1.1072 (low Oct.25) would target 1.1042 (55-day SMA) en route to 1.0925 (low Sep.3).

Such as, the EUR currency has succeeded in recovering the bullish monthly range, mainly due to the continued selling pressure in the Greenback.

On the other hand, the chances that the German economy may move into recession in Q3 remains an obvious risk for the outlook and is expected to send EUR currency down for the short and medium-term range.

    

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.1064

S2 1.1109

S1 1.113

Pivot Point 1.1153

R1 1.1175

R2 1.1197

R3 1.1242

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD has struck below the double top resistance point of 1.1175 and has lately closed series of neutral candles, which are suggesting chances of a bearish bias until the 1.1175 level gets violated. The pair still stays in the buying zone as the MACD, and RSI value is holding above 0 and 50, respectively. Consider staying bullish above 1.1153 to 1.1180 and 1.1220 today. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Dramatic Buying in Gold – What’s Good Level to Capture Retracement?

Gold surged as the greenback came under load following the U.S. Federal Reserve decreased interest rates while risk surrounding a U.S.-China trade agreement supported the metal’s demand as a safe-haven

Gold surged as the greenback came under load following the U.S. Federal Reserve decreased interest rates while risk surrounding a U.S.-China trade agreement supported the metal’s demand as a safe-haven

Gold surged as the greenback came under load following the U.S. Federal Reserve decreased interest rates while risk surrounding a U.S.-China trade agreement supported the metal’s demand as a safe-haven investment.

Prices also took additional help after U.S. weekly jobless claims increased more than anticipated last week. Spot gold rose 0.9% to $1,507.98, having briefly soared to an almost one-week high of $1509.80.

On Wednesday, the U.S. central bank lowered interest rates for the third time in 2019 to accommodate the U.S. growth despite retardation in other regions of the world.

At the moment, gold is trading below the healthy resistance level of 1,514 area, which is pretty much likely to drive the bearish trend in the market.

Gold – Daily Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1485.63    1501.21
1475.6      1506.77
1460.02    1522.36

The leading indicators, such as MACD and Stochastics, are staying in the overbought zone, signaling chances of a bearish reversal in the gold.

Consider taking a sell trade below 1,514 area to target 1,507 today. All the Best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, October 31– Major Trade Setups – Fed Cuts Rates, GPD Figures In Highlight! 

The U.S. dollar softened Wednesday, as the Fed expectedly lowered interest rates. The ICE Dollar Index was down 0.2% on the day to 97.45. The euro rose 0.4% to $1.1152.

The U.S. dollar softened Wednesday, as the Fed expectedly lowered interest rates. The ICE Dollar Index was down 0.2% on the day to 97.45. The euro rose 0.4% to $1.1152.

The U.S. dollar softened Wednesday, as the Fed expectedly lowered interest rates. The ICE Dollar Index was down 0.2% on the day to 97.45. The euro rose 0.4% to $1.1152. Official data showed that French GDP grew 1.3% on year in the third quarter (as expected and +1.4% in the second quarter). Later today, the eurozone third-quarter GDP will be reported (+1.1% on-year expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair flashing green and trading near the 1.2930 due to decreeing the uncertainty surrounding the British politics and Federal Reserve rate cut.

One of the main reasons behind the GBP/USD pair revery is Europen Unions 3-month Brexit extension, as well as increasing chances of the December snap election and public support to the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johson looks to support the cable pair recently. 

At the trade front, the uncertainty surrounding the United States and China trade deal, in the wake of no fixed meeting place, joins the U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s said that China’s ruling Communist Party (CCP) took benefits from the U.S. goodwill. All traders look to ignore the recent support from the United States side to China.

Whereas, the Chinas Commerce Ministry shares more direction regarding trade discussion, which will happen through the telephone call between the official, and made sure that no change will be coming in the plan for talks.

It should be noted that the risk sentiment has been slow, and also the U.S. ten-year Treasury yields fell to 1.80%, whereas Asian stocks supported by the Feral Reserve rate cut.

Looking forward, the markets will ready for Friday’s employment headlines data from the United States, as well as all focus will keep on trade and Brexit headlines and 2nd-tier statistics on the economic calendar.



Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2758

S2 1.2822

S1 1.2862

Pivot Point 1.2885

R1 1.2926

R2 1.2949

R3 1.3013

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD is trading bullish in the wake of a weaker dollar. The pair faced triple bottom support at 1.2780 level, which triggered a bullish trend in the GBP/USD. On the upperside, the Cable may hit the first target at 1.2960, and the bullish breakout of this level can drive more buying until 1.3000 today.  

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair found on the multi-day low nearby 108.65 despite the Bank of Japan announces that no monetary policy change. The Bank of Japan faced the broad expectations of the market, whereas the holding short-term interest rate target at -0.10% with a 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield target around zero. However, the Japanese central bank gave more transparency in its fresh direction through the 3rd-quarter Outlook Report.

As a result, the greenback and Treasury yields surged but then turned back during the Powell press conference. The United States’ two-year Treasury yields surged six-basis points to 1.67% before sliding back to 1.60%, -4 basis points for the day. Finally, the USD/JPY currency pair rose to 109.29 – as being a 3-month bullish before going back to 108.85, unchanged on the day. 

At the data front, the United States Q3 GDP slipped from 2.0% to 1.9% annualized but was above expectations of 1.6%, supported by a stronger consumer. In y/y terms Q3 19 against Q3 18, growth slipped to 2.0% from 2.3%. Personal consumption increased by 2.9%, crossed the estimate of 2.6%, with particularly strong personal durable goods purchases of 5.4%. Core PCE inflation rose to a 2.2% pace from 1.9%, as expected. The ADP private payrolls survey rose 125k in Oct (vs. est. 110k), but the previous reading was revised down from 135k to 93k.

On the other hand, the risk market has been slow overnight due to the uncertainty surrounding the United States and China trade deal. In the wake of no fixed meeting place, joins the U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s said that China’s ruling Communist Party (CCP) took benefits from the U.S. goodwill. All traders look to ignore the recent support from the United States side to China. Traders want to decrease the uncertainty regarding Brexit.

Looking forward, the markets will ready for Friday’s employment headlines data from the United States, as well as all focus will keep on the Nonfarm Payrolls, while trade and Brexit headlines and 2nd-tier statistics on the economic calendar will continue under the trader’s eyes.


Daily Support and Resistance

S3 107.82

S2 108.39

S1 108.63

Pivot Point 108.96

R1 109.19

R2 109.53

R3 110.09

 USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading sharply bearish amid weakness in the U.S. dollar over interest rate cut decision. The USD/JPY pair violated the bullish channel, which was supporting the USD/JPY at 108.800 area. 

Bearish engulfing candles are still suggesting chances of further selling in the USD/JPY until 108.450 today. On the upper side, resistance is likely to stay at 108.750. Consider taking selling trades below 108.750 today.  

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD Currency Pair hit the bullish track and surged sharply from the 20-day Moving Average at 1.1075, increasing more than 50-basis-points. The pair crossed the level 1.1130 and found on the six-day high at 1.1149. So, the EUR/USD currency pair currently stands on the bullish tone, mainly after the FOCM meeting.

After the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the U.S. Dollar surged across the boards, sending the EUR/USD currency pair toward the 1.1070and 1.1080 range. As expected, the central bank rate cut the key interest rate but signaled a pause ahead. 

During Powell’s speech, the U.S. Dollar lost the strength and then rose sharply, mainly due to when Chairman mentioned there would not be a rate hike until there is a significant move up in inflation. Whereas, Chairman’s comment pushed higher the equity princes in Wall Street and sent the greenback to fresh lows across the board.

As of now, the EUR/USD Currency Pair remains to increase into 4th-day during the Thursday, in the wake of Greenback weakness, mainly due to the latest United States Federal Reserve rate cut continues to keep the bearish sentiment around the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields.

As we all well aware that the Federal Reserve delivered a rate cut by the 25-basis-points during the last trading hours; however, they indicated a pause in the future easing. Moreover, the traders continue to worry because of the impact of the rate cut on the economy and about Uncetanitny between the United States and China trade progress.



Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.0981

S2 1.1055

S1 1.1104

Pivot Point 1.1129

R1 1.1178

R2 1.1203

R3 1.1277

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD has reached under the double top resistance level of 1.1175 and has recently closed the Doji candle, which is suggesting chances of a bearish bias in the pair. The pair is oversold as the MACD, and RSI value stays in the bullish zone. Consider staying bearish below 1.1175 to target 1.1120 today. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

USD/CAD Trade Plan, While BOC Keeps Rate Unchanged!

The USD/CAD closed at 1.30856 after placing a high of 1.31003 and a low of 1.31420. The overall movement of the pair remained Bullish that day. Central Bank of Canada

The USD/CAD closed at 1.30856 after placing a high of 1.31003 and a low of 1.31420. The overall movement of the pair remained Bullish that day. Central Bank of Canada

The USD/CAD closed at 1.30856 after placing a high of 1.31003 and a low of 1.31420. The overall movement of the pair remained Bullish that day. Central Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve of United States both will hold their Policy Meeting on Wednesday. Ahead policy meeting, both currencies remained under pressure on Tuesday.

Loonie remained under pressure because of falling Crude Oil prices on Tuesday and supported the USD/CAD upward trend. The traders took repositioning ahead policy meetings to gain profit on Wednesday.
The BOC has not cut its rates since 2015, and there are no chances for further rate cuts this month.

However, the Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut its rates by 25 basis points in the meeting of October. But the chances for the third rate cut by fed are also decreased due to the raised optimism of the US-China trade deal & Brexit Extension.

Although there are no chances of rate cuts from Bank of Canada in October, the December cut is not out of the board. Some analysts suggest that the labor markets are stronger, inflation is on target, and the rates are already lower than US rates, but some factors indicate the need for December cut, and they can’t be ruled out.

Despite the weak Consumer Confidence form United States, the pair continued to move in an upward direction. USD/CAD rose sharply on Tuesday and crossed 1.31 level, but it dropped after reaching that point.



USD/CAD – Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance
0.6846    0.6875
0.683      0.6888
0.68        0.6918
Pivot Point 0.6859

The USD/CAD is staying steady below 1.3100 level, and closing below this level is suggesting strong chances of a bearish trend. Closing above this level can trigger buying until 1.3120 today.
All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, October 30– Major Trade Setups – Monetary Policy Decisions Ahead! 

The U.S. Dollar Index kept trading within a tight range on Tuesday, closing down 0.1% to 97.69, as investors await the Fed’s interest rates decision.

The euro gained 0.1% to

The U.S. Dollar Index kept trading within a tight range on Tuesday, closing down 0.1% to 97.69, as investors await the Fed’s interest rates decision.

The euro gained 0.1% to

The U.S. Dollar Index kept trading within a tight range on Tuesday, closing down 0.1% to 97.69, as investors await the Fed’s interest rates decision.

The euro gained 0.1% to $1.1112, while the British pound was flat at $1.2866. The U.K. Parliament finally supported Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s plan for an early election, which would be held on December 12.

USD/JPY fell 0.1% to 108.88.

Meanwhile, USD/CAD advanced 0.3% to 1.3092 amid weakness in oil prices. On the other hand, the Bank of Canada is expected to keep its benchmark rate at 1.75% unchanged later today.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair consolidates in the narrow range near the 1.2865 despite the United Kingdom parliament approving the extension for the December snap elections. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair s currently trading at 1.2863 and has spent a large part of the last 12 hours chipping away at the resistance of the bull flag on the 4-hour chart.

As we all well aware that the market is cautious not only because of key events but the shortage of fresh hints, so in the consequences, the GBP/USD pair is stuck in the tight range during the Asian trading hours.

During the Tuesday, the United Kingdom parliament approved the law for the first December snap eclection since 1932. The bill will likely become law on the weekend.

On the other hand, the breakout could remain difficult or fail mainly if the Federal Reserve delivers the rate cut by the 25 basis-points and give a hint to pause rate cut series, pushing the U.S. Treasury yields and the greenback higher across the board. It should also b noted that the market has already priced in the 25-basis-points easing.

Apart from the Federal Reserve decision, the GBP/USD currency pair could take hints from the U.S. Q3 preliminary GDP and the monthly ADP jobs data.

On the technical side, while 1.3000 and the fresh high near 1.3015 could keep the pair’s near-term upside limited, a bearish break of 1.2800 could take rest on the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 1.2715 ahead of revisiting September high surrounding 1.2580.



Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2661

S2 1.276

S1 1.2813

Pivot Point 1.2859

R1 1.2911

R2 1.2958

R3 1.3056

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD is still trading the same range, mostly trading bullish above 1.2830 range. On Wednesday, the GBP/USD proceeds to trade bullish above 1.2830 major trading levels. 

On the 4-hour chart, the pair has formed Doji patterns, which is weighing on the bullish trend, but the MACD and RSI are proposing bullish preference. Consider taking buying positions over 1.2859 and bearish under the same level ahead of FOMC and Fed rate decision.

 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY closed at 108.974 after placing a high of 109.037 and a low of 108.657. The overall movement for the pair remained Bullish that day. At 4:50 GMT, the Services Producer Price Index (SPPI) from the Bank of Japan was released and remained the same for the year at 0.5%. 

At 17:30 GMT, the International Goods Trade Balance of the United States for September came in as -70.4B against the expectations of -73.5B and supported the U.S. Dollar on Monday. The negative Prelim Wholesale Inventories from the United States for September also supported the U.S. Dollar. It showed a decline to -0.3% from the previous month’s 0.2%.

The robust macroeconomic data from the U.S. at the starting day of the week gave strength to the U.S. Dollar and increased the prices of USD/JPY in Financial Markets.

On Monday, USD/JPY was rallied to 109 after the Positive comments from Trump about the US-China trade deal and increased U.S. Yields. Trump told the reporters on Monday that he was expecting to sign a significant portion of the Phase-one deal ahead of schedule. Although he did not mention the time for signing the part of the deal, the hint of pre-schedule deal signing itself created a big fluctuation in the market.

The overall optimistic mentality from China & U.S. gave hopes to a possible end of the prevailing Trade-war between them. U.S. & China were expected to sign the phase-one deal at the upcoming APEC Summit in Chile, but Trump announced that a portion of that deal would be signed before the Summit.

This state of affairs raised the appetite for riskier assets in the market, and USD/JPY gained traction in this regard and created a Bullish trend for itself after moving in a consolidated range for almost 2-3 previous days. The incoming positive trade headlines increased the U.S. Yields and hence created more demand for USD/JPY.

  


Daily Support and Resistance

S3 108.13

S2 108.52

S1 108.75

Pivot Point 108.9

R1 109.13

R2 109.28

R3 109.66

 USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY surged to test the resistance area of 109.030, but the bullish momentum wasn’t strong enough to retain a bullish trend for a more extended period. The USD/JPY has dropped below the 109.036 area to retest the bullish trendline support at 108.800. Above this, we can expect USD/JPY to continue trading bullish today. 

So let’s keep an eye on 108.800 today to stay bullish above and bearish below the same level to capture quick 30 pips. The USD/JPY may gain support around 108.550 today. 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair consolidates in the narrow range near the 1.1109. The pair were fell from the recent highs near the 1.1180 during the previous session; probably, the pair will hit the high level again if the German inflation crosses the forecast figures, and the Federal Reserve delivers a dovish rate cut at the coming meeting.

On the technical side, the currency pair had created a bullish hammer candlestick during yesterday, making a strong follow-through to Mondays bullish inside day candlestick.

The consecutive bullish candles indicate the recovery from 1.1180 has likely ended up creating a bullish higher low near 1.1073. 

Whereas, the preliminary German consumer price index for October is still unchanged at 0% and fell moderately to 1.1% from 1.2% in annualized terms. 

The EUR/USD currency pair will likely get hints from the German job data, which is scheduled to release at 08:55 GMT. On the other hand, the preliminary U.S. Q3 GDP and the monthly ADP employment figures could leave a slight impact on the EUR pairs before the Federal Reserve rate decision.

The Federal Reserve is expected to deliver the 3rd rate cut by the 25 basis-points during 2019 on Wednesday and gives the hint of pause easing further. Moreover, the hawkish rate cut could be capping the upside in EUR/USD currency pair.

According to the forecast, the market has already priced in the rate cut. So, the EUR/USD currency pair could increase mainly if the Federal Reserve keeps the doors open for delivering another rate cut before the year’s end.

    


Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.1011

S2 1.1056

S1 1.1084

Pivot Point 1.1101

R1 1.1129

R2 1.1147

R3 1.1192

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD jumped off the support point of 1.1065 yesterday. A bullish trendline extended the support level, which is still keeping the EUR/USD upbeat. The pair rose to the retest 1.1100 area. Today, consider staying bullish above 1.1101 until the FOMC and Fed rate decision comes out.

All the best!

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Gold’s Bullish Trendline Breaks Lower – What’s Next?

Gold prices were closed at $1492.540 after placing a high of $1508.2 and a low of $1489.96. The overall trend for Gold remained Bearish at the starting day of the

Gold prices were closed at $1492.540 after placing a high of $1508.2 and a low of $1489.96. The overall trend for Gold remained Bearish at the starting day of the

Gold prices were closed at $1492.540 after placing a high of $1508.2 and a low of $1489.96. The overall trend for Gold remained Bearish at the starting day of the week.

At 17:30 GMT, the International Goods Trade Balance of the United States for September came in as -70.4B against the expectations of -73.5B and supported the US Dollar on Monday. The negative Prelim Wholesale Inventories from the United States for September also helped the US Dollar. It showed a decline to -0.3% from the previous month’s 0.2%.

The robust macroeconomic data from the US at the starting day of the week gave strength to the US Dollar and weighed on Yellow Metal prices in Financial Markets.

The drop in Gold Prices was boosted on Monday after the positive comments from US President, Donald Trump on Trade Deal talks between US & China. Trump told the reporters on Monday that he was expecting to sign a significant portion of the Phase-one deal ahead of schedule. Although he did not mention the time for signing the part of the agreement, the hint of pre-schedule deal signing itself created a large fluctuation in the market.


XAU/USD – Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance 

1,485.65    1,503.9

1,478.72    1,515.22

1,460.47    1,533.47

Pivot Point 1,496.97

Gold has recently violated the bullish trendline, which was extending Gold an excellent support around 1490. Below this, the market is likely to stay bearish below 1490. On the lower side, the additional support stays at 1,481 today. Whereas, the resistance remains at 1,495.

All the best

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, October 29 – Major Trade Setups – Trade War Fear Fades!

The risk sentiment remains on today amid faded safe-haven appeal over-optimism from the U.S. China trade deal. Regarding Brexit, Prime Minister Boris Johnson would still need support from the Liberal

The risk sentiment remains on today amid faded safe-haven appeal over-optimism from the U.S. China trade deal. Regarding Brexit, Prime Minister Boris Johnson would still need support from the Liberal

The risk sentiment remains on today amid faded safe-haven appeal over-optimism from the U.S. China trade deal. Regarding Brexit, Prime Minister Boris Johnson would still need support from the Liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party.

Notably, the 2-parties shown willingness to support a coming election if the Prime Minter Boris Johnson satisfies three conditions, no-deal Brexit is ruled out, no attempt to pass the PM’s Brexit deal before the election, and the election date is stipulated.

At the Fed front, the Federal Reserve is expected to deliver the rate cut by the 25-basis-points. As we are all well aware that this rate cut is counted as a 3rd-consecutive rate cut since July, markets are expecting the rate cut by 21-basis-points at the upcoming meeting on October 30 and the terminal velocity of 1.27% against the 1.88% currently.

The FOMC is expected to communicate patience in deciding future policy movements after the next week’s rate cut as they estimate the impact of the cuts which are delivered already. 

 

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

Economic Calendar by TradingView

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

Today in the early Asian session, the GBP/USD currency pair found on the bullish track according to the technical indicators. However, the strong bullish trend could remain difficult if the United Kingdom parliament again rejects Prime Minster Boris Jonhson December election proposal.

On the technical side, the 50-day Moving Average has ticked above the 100-day Moving Average, confirming a bullish cross for the first time after February.

The crossover shows a sequence of the recent rally from lows near 1.22, and so does the buyer’s flag marked on the 4-hour chart. As we are well aware that the Europan Union gave a Brexit extension of 3-months and the United Kingdom parliament has rejected Boris Johnson’s offer of snap elections.

The report came from an unknown source that Prime Minister Boris Johnson will request for another vote during the December election Tuesday, there are many possibilities of success as compared to the past way because thereby they just need a simple majority to succeed.

Looking ahead, Prime Minister Boris johnson would still need support from the Liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party. Notably, the two parties shown willingness to support a coming election if the Prime Minter Boris Johnson satisfies three conditions: no-deal Brexit is ruled out, there are no attempts to pass the PM’s Brexit deal before the election, and the election date is stipulated.

On the other hand, the United Kingdom housing prices, Consumer Credit, Money Supply, and Mortgage Approvals are scheduled to release during the European trading hours. Across the pond, the eyes will be on the U.S. Consumer Confidence data and Pending Home Sales. 

The GBP may challenge recent highs above 1.30, as hinted by technical studies if the Europan Parliament allows an early election. Notably, If the vote fails, then GBP could drop below support at 1.2788.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2727

S2 1.2789

S1 1.2826

Pivot Point 1.2851

R1 1.2888

R2 1.2914

R3 1.2976

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.2855 area, after gaining support at 1.2830. On Tuesday, the cable continues to trade choppy from 1.2950 – 1.2785. On the 4-hour chart, the bearish engulfing pattern is anticipated to hold the GBP/USD prices towards 1.2785 area today. 

The technical indicators such as the MACD and RSI are proposing neutral bias for the GBP/USD. Consider staying bullish above 1.2785 and bearish blow the same area to capture 30 pips on either side. 

 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair consolidates in the narrow range of 108.70 and 108.75, which is the strongest part of overnight trade until New York traders stepped in. This initiated a squeeze to as high as 109.04 3-months high, mainly due to the rise in the U.S. Treasury yields and certainty surrounding the United States and China trade relations.

The USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 108.98, flashing green on the day, having examined the 200-day M.A. line of 108.05 in the early Asian trading hours. 

President Donald Trump has fueled the market expectations by announcing that the United States is ahead of schedule to sign the first round of the United States and China trade deal ahead of when Xi and Trump are ready to meet in Chile next month. Moreover, the Chinese official said that most main parts of the deal basically completed already.

At the data front, the United States’ two-year Treasury yields rose from 1.63% to 1.67% – a one-month high, before steadying at 1.64%. The 10-year yield rose from 1.80% to 1.85%. United States benchmarks were also supported by the risk-on sentiment, with a fresh all-time closing high for the S&P 500, weighing on the Yen. 

The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to deliver the rate cut by the 25-basis-points, as we all well aware that this rate cut is counted as a 3rd-consecutive rate cut since July while markets are expecting the rate cut by 21-basis-points at the upcoming meeting on October 30 and the terminal velocity of 1.27% against the 1.88% currently.

The FOMC is expected to communicate patience in deciding future policy movements after the next week’s rate cut as they estimate the impact of the cuts which are delivered already.      


Daily Support and Resistance

S3 108.13

S2 108.52

S1 108.75

Pivot Point 108.9

R1 109.13

R2 109.28

R3 109.66

 USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY currency pair has already violated the sideways trading range to hit our suggested target of 108.950 area. For now, the 108.800 level is likely to extend solid support to the USD/JPY currency pair. 

With the bullish breakout of the 108.800 level, the USD/JPY is expected to trade until 109.355 while the MACD and RSI are also supporting the bullish bias in the USD/JPY currency pair today.   

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

During the Asian session, the EUR/USD currency pair consolidates in the narrow range around 1.100. However, during the Monday trading session, the couple was found on the bullish track and created a bullish inside day candlestick pattern, but the bullish moves could be capped due to hawkish expectation regarding the Federal Reserve rate cut and increase in the U.S. Treasury yields.

The EUR/USD currency pair closed at 0.19% up yesterday. Moreover, the bullish and bearish levels fell in Fridays trading range. As we know, the shared currency created a bullish inside day candle, which was showing by the chart.

The candlestick pattern arrangement is biased bullish. Although, the bullish trend in the pair could be reduced or continue to difficult because the Federal Reserve is expected to deliver the rate cut by the 25-basis-points during the Wednesday and lessen the need for an additional rate cut.

Therefore, heading toward the Federal Reserve rate cut decision, the United States Treasury yields could increase, keeping the greenback better buying. Notably, the ten-year yield has already increased by 14-basis-points, since the last 3-days

As of writing, the Treasury yield is found at 1.85%, and the EUR/USD currency pair is trading mostly flat on the day near 1.11.

On the other hand, the EUR currency may take hints from the German Bundesbank President Weidmann’s speech, which is scheduled to deliver at 09:50 GMT and the U.S. housing data and consumer confidence number expected to release at 14:00 GMT.

Daily Support and Resistance    

S3 1.1045

S2 1.107

S1 1.1085

Pivot Point 1.1096

R1 1.1111

R2 1.1121

R3 1.1147

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

As discussed before, the EUR/USD is trading below 1.1100 support becomes resistance area. Overall, the trend in the EUR/USD remains bearish below 1.1100, as we can also notice the leading indicators such as MACD and RSI. 

On the lower side, the EUR/USD may find support at 1.1065, and the violation of this level could extend sell-off until the 1.1020 area. On the upperside, the resistance prevails at 1.1115. A bullish breakout of 1.1115 can lead to 1.1160. Let’s for selling trades below 1.1110 today. 

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, October 28 – Major Trade Setups – Risk-off Sentiment Plays! 

The ICE U.S. Dollar Index climbed 0.2% on the day to 97.83 on Friday. Over the weekend, the trade negotiators of the U.S. and China “agreed to resolve their core

The ICE U.S. Dollar Index climbed 0.2% on the day to 97.83 on Friday. Over the weekend, the trade negotiators of the U.S. and China “agreed to resolve their core

The ICE U.S. Dollar Index climbed 0.2% on the day to 97.83 on Friday. Over the weekend, the trade negotiators of the U.S. and China “agreed to resolve their core concerns properly and confirmed that the technical consultations of some of the text agreement were completed,” as per the given report released by China’s Ministry of Commerce.

The pound lost 0.2% to $1.2823. It is reported that French President Emmanuel Macron blocked the European Union’s attempt to delay Brexit for three months. On Sunday, the media reported that the E.U. hopes to agree on Monday to delay Britain’s departure to January 31 with an option to exit earlier.

The euro fell 0.2% to $1.1080. The German IFO Business Climate Index was flat on the month at 94.6 in October (94.5 expected).

 

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

Economic Calendar by TradingView

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair got some benefits from the news that the European Union is ready to permit a 3-months Brexit delay to the United Kingdom. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair taking buying to 1.2825 in the Asian trading hours.

The Guadian news agency freshly covered a story through saying that the European Union (E.U.) is ready to sign a deal that will offer a three-month Brexit delay, to January 31, 2020, with an option for the United Kingdom (U.K.) to leave earlier if a deal is approved.

 

The news reports reduced the scope of any further negotiations to the agreed deal with an option for the United Kingdom (U.K.) to leave earlier if a deal is approved.

Moreover, it also said that the United Kingdom has the responsibility to choose a candidate for the European Commission. The Prime Minister has said earlier that he will not present the nominee.

With the European Union on its way to reduce the scope of no-deal Brexit, a formal announcement will be expected during Monday’s European Union and British session to trigger drama in the United Kingdom, where signs for snap elections will be sparkled.

 

Notably, the greenback mostly supported by the recent positive sentiment between the United States and China trade talks and has Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September, -0.37 expected against 0.10 previous, up for publishing on the economic calendar.


Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2714

S2 1.2773

S1 1.28

Pivot Point 1.2832

R1 1.2859

R2 1.289

R3 1.2949

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

Following a bullish channel breakout, the GBP/USD pair is bearish at 1.2835 area. Overall, the Cable is keeping a choppy series of 1.2950 – 1.2785. On the 4-hour chart, the bearish engulfing pattern is expected to keep the GBP/USD prices towards 1.2785 area today. 

The MACD and RSI indicators are suggesting in the selling zone, maintaining the bearish trend in the GBP/USD. Consider staying bullish above 1.2832 today. 

 

XAU/USD – Daily Analysis

The safe-haven metal prices hit the bullish track despite the tension eased between the United States and China and reduce trade concerns as well. The U.S. Gold Futures gained 0.2% to $1,506.6. 

The yellow-metal prices are high, almost 17% on the year due to the investors runs toward the safe-haven assets in the wake of currency devaluations, slowdown fears, and other tension, including China and Iran.

The bullish trend in the gold prices came today even after the tension easing between the United States and China. As well as U.S. President Donald Trump said that the discussions with China have reached on the progressed track and gave a hint that deal is come to an end, as China wants to get a contract very seriously.

On the other hand, the United States Federal Reserve policy decision is scheduled to deliver on Wednesday, whereas the central bank is broadly expected to deliver its 3rd-rate cut during this year.

 

Instead, traders will be excited to know if the rate cut this week would be the end of the easing cycle, or if more cuts are on the cards.

The Federal Reserve rate cut decision is scheduled to deliver just an hour after the report on the United States’ 3rd-quarter GDP, which is anticipated to show that the economy increased 1.7% during the -months to September, decreasing from 25 during the 2nd quarter.


Daily Support and Resistance

    

S3 1472.9

S2 1490.32

S1 1497.42

Pivot Point 1507.74

R1 1514.84

R2 1525.16

R3 1542.58

XAU/USD – Trading Tips

 

Gold is trading bearish below 1,514 trading level, which is the triple top level. The gold price soared sharply to place a high around 1,517, but the gains were in checked, and gold slid to close nearby 1,505 level. 

On the daily chart, gold’s ascending triangle pattern of gold is yet intact, and it may retain gold bearish under 1,514 and bullish over 1,496 till the breakout occurs.

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair found on the 3-week bullish rally since January 2018. Whereas, the pair has closed its trading session at 1.1079 on Friday, confirming a bearish break of the trendline connecting October 11 and October 15 highs. However, the EUR/USD currency pair may take a strong buying in the Europan trading hours due to trade optimism headlines. 

During the Friday, the United States officials said that the discussions with China have reached on the progressed track and gave a hint that the deal has come to an end. Moreover, President Donald Trump asked for congress to pass the USCMA trade pact and said that China wants a trade agreement.

On the other hand, the bullish trend in the EUR/USD currency pair could be limited due to Brexit uncertainty. Additionally, the strong bullish moves couldn’t be seen due to the data calendar has been dull in the European session, and investors may remain cautious ahead of Federal Reserves rate decision, which is scheduled to release on October 30. The market is expecting the 25-basis-points rate cut, but the market focus will be on the hint by the meetings due to there is a divided opinion. It should be noted that the European Central Bank’s outgoing President Draghi is scheduled to speak at 15:00 GMT. The central bank head is likely to reiterate the dovish stance.



Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.0992

S2 1.1042

S1 1.1061

Pivot Point 1.1092

R1 1.1111

R2 1.1142

R3 1.1192

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD has broken the 1.1100 support point, and presently it’s trading right over the bullish trendline, which is increasing support at 1.1065 regions. At the same time, the 50 periods EMA is also increasing support at 1.1065 zone, which also marks 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The next resistance visits at 1.1092/1.1100. 

All the best!  

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

WTI Crude Oil Exhibits a Weekly Gain – Supply Concern Weights!

On Friday, the WTI crude oil prices continue to hold bullish bias maintaining substantial weekly gains as support from a surprise draws in U.S. inventories and possible action from OPEC

On Friday, the WTI crude oil prices continue to hold bullish bias maintaining substantial weekly gains as support from a surprise draws in U.S. inventories and possible action from OPEC

On Friday, the WTI crude oil prices continue to hold bullish bias maintaining substantial weekly gains as support from a surprise draws in U.S. inventories and possible action from OPEC and its allies to increase production cuts burdened broader economic interests.

The strong buying in crude oil was mostly underpinned by the surprise plunge in U.S. stockpile data. The U.S. crude oil inventories fell by about 10 million barrels during the previous week.

Whereas, the officials at the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) remarked to extended supply cut is an option to balance the softer demand outlook in 2020, hence extending another reliable support to the WTI crude oil prices.

Technically, the WTI has violated an asymmetric triangle pattern, which keeps the crude oil prices on hold between 54.75 to 53.50. The violation of this range has pushed crude oil higher towards 56.50 area.

WTI Crude Oil – Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance
55.5 56.59
54.91 57.1
53.82 58.19
Pivot Point 56.01

At the moment, crude oil is facing stiff resistance at 56.50 area. However, the WTI is looking to complete bearish retracement on the 240 mins chart. Crude oil has already completed 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 55.85 area, and below this, further sell-off is expected until 55.50.

Despite the bearish correction, I would suggest looking for a bullish trades above 55.30 level today. All the best!