Author: Ali B.

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 21 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Risk-off Sentiment in Play! 

In Asian trading hours, EUR/USD edged up to 1.1098, and GBP/USD climbed to 1.3011. The USD/JPY slid to 109.97. This morning, the Bank of Japan, as widely expected, kept its policy rate at -0.10% and a 10-year yield target at 0% unchanged. The central bank raised its 2020 Japan’s GDP growth forecast to 0.9% from 0.7% previously. Spot gold marked a day-high of $1,568.6 an ounce before easing to $1,566.0 an ounce.

In Asian trading hours, EUR/USD edged up to 1.1098, and GBP/USD climbed to 1.3011. The USD/JPY slid to 109.97. This morning, the Bank of Japan, as widely expected, kept its policy rate at -0.10% and a 10-year yield target at 0% unchanged. The central bank raised its 2020 Japan’s GDP growth forecast to 0.9% from 0.7% previously. Spot gold marked a day-high of $1,568.6 an ounce before easing to $1,566.0 an ounce.

In Asian trading hours, EUR/USD edged up to 1.1098, and GBP/USD climbed to 1.3011. The USD/JPY slid to 109.97. This morning, the Bank of Japan, as widely expected, kept its policy rate at -0.10% and a 10-year yield target at 0% unchanged. The central bank raised its 2020 Japan’s GDP growth forecast to 0.9% from 0.7% previously. Spot gold marked a day-high of $1,568.6 an ounce before easing to $1,566.0 an ounce.

The ZEW Financial Market Survey is an aggregation of the sentiments of almost 350 economists and analysts on the economic future of Germany is scheduled to release today. Germany, which is considered as the Eurozone’s manufacturing powerhouse, suffered a marked slowdown in 2019, in the wake of the Sino-US trade tensions.

Economic Events to Watch Today

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair was flashing green, and it crossed the 50-day Moving Average at 1.1094 ahead of the German ZEW Survey for January. The EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.1098 and is consolidating in the range between the 1.1088 – 1.1099.

As we know, the currency pair hit the 3.5 week low of 1.1077 yesterday. As of now, the EUR currency is likely to get a strong buying trend if the German ZEW survey data comes positive. On the flip side, if the data disappoints the expectations and comes negative, then the EUR/USD currency pair could touch the Monday’s low of 1.1077 and may drop further below 100-day Moving Average at 1.1066.

The German ZEW survey for January, which is scheduled to release at 10:00 GMT, is expected to show improvement, with the Economic Sentiment index rising to 15.0 from 10.7 in December while the Current Situation index is seen improving to -13.8 from -19.9.

On the technical side, a close above 1.1173 (January 16 high) is required to cancel the lower moves and confirm a bullish reversal.

On the other hand, the expectations to cut interest rates by the European Central Bank are developed while keeping in mind the weakness of EUR. These expectations are continuously weighing on EUR/USD prices ahead of ECB monetary policy meeting. 

Whereas, U.S. President Trump and his Administration are strongly trying to limit the greenback’s upside through giving warnings and pressurizing the Fed for further cuts.



Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.0996
  • S2 1.1051
  • S1 1.107
  • Pivot Point 1.1106
  • R1 1.1125
  • R2 1.1161
  • R3 1.1216

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

On the 4 hour timeframe, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.1096, having formed a bullish engulfing pattern. The bullish engulfing pattern is suggesting the odds of a bullish trend in the EUR/USD. The EUR/USD can show bullish correction until 1.1106 and 1.1112 before showing further selling.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair continues to flash green and extends its previous day’s recovery rally despite the ruling Tory party’s defeat in the parliamentary voting over the Brexit bill. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3017 and is consolidating in the range between the 1.2996 – 1.3021. As of now, market traders are keeping their eyes on the U.K.’s employment data for fresh clues of Bank of England’s next step.

On the front of the main news, the House of Lords rejected 3-votes from the United Kingdom Prime minister Boris Johnson’s Brexit departure agreement Bill. It is worth to mention that this was the 1st parliamentary defeat for the ruling Conservative Party after the general election. Notably, the one amendment among three was telling to providing a physical document to the European Union as evidence to live in the United Kingdom after Brexit. Whereas, the other bills were relating to the powers of ministers to set aside judgments by the E.U. Court of Justice.

As we know the GBP/USD pair extended its recovery rally despite the defeat of the Conservative Party. So, the reason behind the pair’s bullish sentiment could be the trader’s expectation on these laws that these laws will provide help during the United Kingdom and European Union talks.

On the other hand, the American traders will come back on to take their positions after the long weekend and will observe U.S. President Donald Trump’s impeachment trial.

Looking forward, the British employment data got more importance in the wake of recent downbeat economics from the U.K. as well as the BOE Governor’s dovish tone in the latest public figure. On the forecast view, we’re in line with consensus in looking for the unemployment rate to hold steady at 3.8% in November, because it continues to bounce around near-multi decade lows. We also look for wage growth to ease a tenth lower, with headline wages at 3.1% y/y, and ex-bonus wages at 3.4%. While wage growth had been very strong during the middle of the year, it seems to be decreasing slightly at the end of 2019.


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2812
  • S2 1.2928
  • S1 1.2969
  • Pivot Point 1.3044
  • R1 1.3085
  • R2 1.316
  • R3 1.3276

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD has taken a bullish turn following a release of better than expected U.K. labor market figures. The Cable seems to go and test the downward channel, which is still intact on the 4-hour chart. At the moment, the GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.3040, and it seems to extend bullish bais until 1.3090.

The GBP/USD pair may find support around the 1.3044 area today. Whereas, the RSI and MACD support the bullish bias. Let’s look for selling trades below 1.3080 and bullish trades above 1.3010. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair continued to flash red and extended its losses streak despite the BOJ’s decision to hold its monetary policy and interest rates unchanged. As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 109.94 and is consolidating in the range between 109.90 and 110.22.

The buying sentiment came in the safe-haven Japanese yen before the press time and sent the USD/JPY pair to a session low of 109.91 from 110.21, mainly after the losses in the U.S. equity index futures.

On the other hand, the details of the fourth quarter (Q4) economic outlook was also released. The Japanese central bank upwardly revised the GDP growth for fiscal 2019/20 and 2020/21.

Whereas, the futures on the S&P 500 are currently reporting a 0.30% drop on the day. The index futures and the Asian stocks came under pressure reportedly due to the explosion of the coronavirus.

As we know, the currency pair earlier dropped mainly due to the headlines regarding the China virus took market attention. As four people have already died of the same in China, an Australian man has also been recently tested for the human transmitted disease. As a result, Wuhan has created a Wuhan Pneumonia control center to stop further spread of the disease. Meanwhile, he has ordered strong supervision of markets and public transportation stations in order to stop further spread of this virus.

Meanwhile, the U.S. 10-year treasury yields drop four basis points to 1.79%, whereas the S&P 500 Futures decline 0.40% to 3,311. Moreover, Japan’s NIKKEI also lost 1.0% to 23,850 by press time.

Looking forward, traders will now keep their eyes on BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s press conference, which is scheduled to happen at 06:00 GMT, for taking fresh direction. After that, the United States trader will come back on their positions after the long weekend and will observe U.S. President Donald Trump’s impeachment trial and fresh headlines.       



Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 109.73
  • S2 109.94
  • S1 110.04
  • Pivot Point 110.15
  • R1 110.25
  • R2 110.35
  • R3 110.56

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

Technically, the USD/JPY pair is trading with a bullish bias at 110.200 after consolidating in a narrow trading range of 109.800 – 110.150. Recently, the USD/JPY pair has formed Three While Soldiers pattern on the 4-hour timeframe, which typically suggests a bullish trend in the market. The USD/JPY is now supported above 110.100, and we may see further buying above this level until 110.490 today. The USD/JPY may find a resistance level of 110.570. Moreover, the RSI and MACD are still staying in the buying zone. Today, I will be looking for buying trades over 110.1 levels with a target of 110.570. 

All the best for today! 

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 20 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Martin Luther King Day

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.3% on the day at 97.61. The euro slid 0.4% to $1.1090. The British Pound dropped 0.5% to $1.3010, snapping a three-day rally. Official data showed that U.K. retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.6% on month in December (+0.6% estimated), fueling expectations of an interest-rate cut by the Bank of England.

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.3% on the day at 97.61. The euro slid 0.4% to $1.1090. The British Pound dropped 0.5% to $1.3010, snapping a three-day rally. Official data showed that U.K. retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.6% on month in December (+0.6% estimated), fueling expectations of an interest-rate cut by the Bank of England.

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.3% on the day at 97.61. The euro slid 0.4% to $1.1090. The British Pound dropped 0.5% to $1.3010, snapping a three-day rally. Official data showed that U.K. retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.6% on month in December (+0.6% estimated), fueling expectations of an interest-rate cut by the Bank of England.

The U.S. government bond prices declined further after the Treasury Department announced plans to sell 20-year government bonds later this year. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield advanced to 1.834% from 1.809% Thursday.

Economic Events to Watch Today

  

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.10893 after placing a high of 1.11425 and a low of 1.10862. Overall the movement of the EUR/USD pair remained strongly bearish that day.

On Friday, the EUR/USD pair was dropped near its January low amid the broad U.S. dollar strength after the upbeat macroeconomic data. 

The US-China phase-one trade deal was under whole focus week but failed to impress as it did not include the rolling back of tariffs in it, which was essential for boosting global growth. According to Trump, there would be rolling back of tariffs in Phase-two of a trade deal. The uncertainty from the trade front, as well as Brexit front, continued to weigh on the market.

On Thursday, the closely watched Retail Sales data from the United States exceeded the expectations and supported the U.S. dollar. The stronger U.S. dollar after December Retail Sales removed risk appetite from the market and dragged its rival currency Euro on Friday.

The upbeat data from the United States indicated that the economy was doing well then its significant counterparts and weighed on EUR/USD prices.

On Friday, from the European side, at 12:45 GMT, the French Government Budget Balance was announced for November, which showed a deficit of -113.9B. At 14:02 GMT, the Current Account Balance for the whole bloc was released, which also came in short of expectations as 33.9B against the forecasted 34.3B and weighed on Euro.

At 14:02 GMT, the Italian Trade Balance for November showed a decline of 4.87B against the expected 7.22B and weighed on single currency Euro. At 15:00 GMT, the Final Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the year remained flat at 1.3%. The Final Core Consumer Price Index from Eurozone for the year also remained the same as expected at 1.3%. Weaker than expected Trade Balance from Eurozone weighed on EUR/USD and dragged its prices near its month lowest point.

On the other hand, the U.S. dollar was in strength already due to Retail Sales data from Thursday and got even stronger after the release of Housing Starts on Friday. At 18:30 GMT, the number of Houses that started its construction in December exceeded the expectations of 1.38M and came in as 1.61M and supported the U.S. dollar.

The stronger U.S. dollar dragged further the prices of EUR/USD pair and gave the pair a strong bearish candle at the ending day of the week.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.1056
  • S2 1.1101
  • S1 1.1119
  • Pivot Point 1.1146
  • R1 1.1164
  • R2 1.1191
  • R3 1.1236

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

On the 4 hour timeframe, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.1096, having formed a bullish engulfing pattern. The bullish engulfing pattern is suggesting the odds of a bullish trend in the EUR/USD. The EUR/USD can show bullish correction until 1.1106 and 1.1112 before showing further selling.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.30094 after placing a high of 1.31187 and a low of 1.30076. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained bearish that day. On Friday, the British Pound was lower against the U.S. dollar as the Retail Sales data from the U.K. came in short of expectations, and the U.S. dollar gained traction at the end of the week amid robust data.

The member of Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee, Gertjan Vlieghe, who previously was in favor of rate hike said earlier this week that he would vote for a rate cut in the next meeting if the data continuously show signs of weakness.

The chances for a rate cut by Bank of England increased on Friday after the release of Retail Sales from Great Britain. At 14:30 GMT, the Office for National Statistics from the United Kingdom published Retail Sales report for December, which showed that Retail Sales slumped to -0.6% from the expectations of 0.5% and weighed on single currency Pound.

The GBP/USD prices rose in the early trading session on Friday before the release of Retail Sales, which decreased the size of the decline in prices of GBP/USD after the publication of data. The pair GBP/USD fell to 1.30 level on the back of the 5th consecutive monthly decline in Retail Sales. 

It should also be noted that in December, there were general elections in the United Kingdom, which could be a cause for the decline in Retail Sales as the political uncertainty could have weighed on consumer minds for spending on Christmas presents.

The next monetary policy decision by Bank of England will take place on coming Thursday, January 30. Only major data to be released by then from the United Kingdom is Manufacturing & Services PMI, which will also be released next week.

On the other hand, the U.S. dollar remained firm on the back of strong Housing Starts figures. At 18:30 GMT, the number of buildings that started their construction in December came in as 1.61M against the expectations of 1.38M and supported the U.S. dollar.

The member of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee, Harker, also gave comments in favor of the U.S. economy. He said that the economy was doing well, and data will be monitored to decide the further fate of monetary policy and interest rates.

His comments also supported the upward trend of the U.S. dollar on Friday and added in the fall of GBP/USD prices at the ending day of the week.


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2946
  • S2 1.3004
  • S1 1.304
  • Pivot Point 1.3062
  • R1 1.3098
  • R2 1.312
  • R3 1.3178

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On Monday, the GBP/USD pair continues to trade bearish as it tested and failed to violate the downward channel, which was formed on the 4-hour chart. At the moment, the GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.2078, and it seems to extend bearish bais until 1.2925. 

The GBP/USD pair may find support around 1.2925 area today. Whereas, the RSI and MACD support the bearish bias. Let’s look for selling trades below 1.2980.  

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 110.161 after placing a high of 110.287 and a low of 110.046. Overall the movement of the USD/JPY pair remained bullish that day.

At 9:30 GMT, the Tertiary Industry Activity for November from Japan exceeded the market expectations and supported the Japanese Yen when it came in as 1.3% against the forecasted 1.0%. 

At 2:00 GMT, the TIC Long-Term Purchases data from the United States for November was released by the U.S. Department of Treasury. The report showed a decline of 22.9B from the expected 34.5B and weighed on the U.S. dollar.

At 18:30, the Building Permits for December from the United States showed a decline to1.42M from the expected 1.47M and weighed on the U.S. dollar. However, the Housing Starts in December were increased to 1.61M from the expected 1.38M and supported the U.S. dollar.

At 19:15 GMT, the Capacity Utilization Rate from the U.S. remained flat at 77.0%. But the Industrial Production for December dropped and came in negative as -0.3% from forecasted 0.0% and weighed on the U.S. dollar.

At 20:00 GMT, the Prelim Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan came as 99.1, almost in line with the expectations of 99.3, and gave null effect to the U.S. dollar. However, the release of JOLTS Job Openings weighed on the U.S. dollar when it dropped to 6.80M against the expectations of 7.24M for November.

The Prelim Inflation Expectations from the University of Michigan increased in January to 2.5% from December’s 2.3%. The increased Housing Starts and Increased expectations of rising Inflation gave a boost to the U.S. dollar on Friday. The U.S. dollar was further supported by the comments of Patrick Harker, the President of Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 109.57
  • S2 109.83
  • S1 110
  • Pivot Point 110.1
  • R1 110.27
  • R2 110.36
  • R3 110.62

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Monday, the USD/JPY pair is trading with a bullish bias at 110.200 after consolidating in a narrow trading range of 109.800 – 110.150. Recently, the USD/JPY pair has formed Three While Soldiers pattern on the 4-hour timeframe, which typically suggests a bullish trend in the market. 

The USD/JPY is now supported above 110.100, and we may see further buying above this level until 110.490 today. The USD/JPY may find a resistance level of 110.570. Moreover, the RSI and MACD are still staying in the buying zone. Today, I will be looking for buying trades over 110.1 levels with a target of 110.570. 

All the best for today! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Crude oil gains support – Is It a good time to go long?

The WTI crude oil prices unchanged and maintain its biggest gain in the wake of sluggish economic growth in China, the world’s largest crude importer, as it increased concerns regarding the fuel demand.

The WTI crude oil prices unchanged and maintain its biggest gain in the wake of sluggish economic growth in China, the world’s largest crude importer, as it increased concerns regarding the fuel demand.

The WTI crude oil prices unchanged and maintain its biggest gain in the wake of sluggish economic growth in China, the world’s largest crude importer, as it increased concerns regarding the fuel demand.

In the 4th-quarter of 2019, the world’s 2nd-largest economy grew by an expected 6% from a year earlier, whereas the full-year expansion was 6.1%, the slowest in 29 years. The U.S. West Texas Intermediate dropped 7 cents at $58.45 a barrel, having risen more than 1% in the previous session. The contract was down about 1% for the week and also set for a second weekly decline.

WTI crude oil prices rose yesterday after the United States and China signed the phase-one trade agreement. The sentiment in the market was further recovered after the United States Senate approved changes to the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Free Trade Agreement.

On the flip side, decreasing chances of the US-Iran war and the U.S. dollar strength, which generally weighs on the commodity basket. The International Energy Agency gave a dark picture of the oil market outlook for 2020 on Thursday. The agency expected that oil supply would exceed demand for crude from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), even if members are fully compliant in their agreement with Russia and other producers to curb output, a grouping known as OPEC+.

On the other hand, the United Arab Emirates energy minister said this week that he is expecting a positive meeting with OPEC and its allies to meet next in March.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 55.83
S2 57.1
S1 57.86
Pivot Point 58.37
R1 59.13
R2 59.64
R3 60.91

The U.S. Oil is holding around 58.80 with a bullish bias to target a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement mark of 59.46. On the higher side, further bullish bias can lead to crude oil prices towards 60.60, which marks 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Today consider staying bullish above 58.40 to target 9.45. Good luck!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 17 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – UoM Consumer Sentiment Ahead! 

On Friday, China’s industrial production rose by 6.9% in December, against the forecast figures of 5.9% by a significant margin to register the fastest rate of growth since March. Moreover, Retail Sales increased by 8%, beating forecasts of 7.9% growth, but remained unchanged from November. 

On Friday, China’s industrial production rose by 6.9% in December, against the forecast figures of 5.9% by a significant margin to register the fastest rate of growth since March. Moreover, Retail Sales increased by 8%, beating forecasts of 7.9% growth, but remained unchanged from November. 

On Friday, China’s industrial production rose by 6.9% in December, against the forecast figures of 5.9% by a significant margin to register the fastest rate of growth since March. Moreover, Retail Sales increased by 8%, beating forecasts of 7.9% growth, but remained unchanged from November. 

Whereas, the 4th-quarter GDP came in at 6% as expected, while China reported the full-year growth at 6.1%, the slowest in 29 years. Let’s take a look at the trade setups worth trading today. 

Economic Events to Watch Today

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD is facing selling pressure and dropped to 1.1131 from the high of 1.1173 despite the better-than-expected China data. As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.1134 and consolidates in the range between the 1.1131 – 1.1143. The greenback is seen strong in the wake of better-than-expected U.S. Retail Sales Data, and this is the main reason behind the EUR/USD pair declines.

At the USD front, the greenback picked up the bids across the board. The DXY rose for the day, above 97.30, recovering from weekly lows. The U.S. yield is up as well, with the ten-year at 1.81%, offering support to the greenback.

The EUR currency pair hit the peak of 1.1160 yesterday, confirming an upside break of the descending channel from December 31 and January 6 highs.

At the China data front, the Industrial production rose by 6.9% in December, against the forecast figures of 5.9% by a significant margin to register the fastest rate of growth since March. Moreover, Retail Sales increased by 8%, beating forecasts of 7.9% growth, but remained unchanged from November. 

Whereas, the 4th-quarter GDP came in at 6% as expected, while China reported the full-year growth at 6.1%, the slowest in 29 years. 

It is worth to mention that the markets priced in China recession during 2019, and the economy have been struggling to shift in the recovery mode since the last few weeks in the wake of Sino-US trade truce. Moreover, the Industrial production data shows that the economy will likely regain some stability.

Looking forward, the EUR currency may take further steady declines if the Untied States Industrial Production ignore past expectation; by the way, the data is scheduled to release at 14:15 GMT. As well as, the Eurozone current account surplus and the final consumer price index figures for December are also scheduled to release in Europe.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.1056
  • S2 1.1101
  • S1 1.1119
  • Pivot Point 1.1146
  • R1 1.1164
  • R2 1.1191
  • R3 1.1236

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The bullish setup of EUR/USD shifted dramatically into bearish setup on the release of U.S. Fundamentals. The retail sales and Philly Fed Manufacturing index surprised the market big times, beating the economist’s forecast. The EUR/USD drop from 1.1170 to 1.1130. 

Today, we don’t have any high impact economy which could rive such kind of movement again. Therefore the EUR/USD pair may continue treading in a bearish tone below 1.1145 resistance level. The immediate support can be found around the 1.1125 area. Below this, the next support can be found around 1.1100.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair stopped its three-day recovery streak and dropped to 1.3065 from the above 1.3100 level, mainly due to broad-based greenback weakness and the European Union sturdy stand on the Brexit. The GBP/USD currency pair is trading at 1.3074 and consolidates in the range between the 1.3065 – 1.3080. The market traders await for the U.K.’s December month Retail Sales for the fresh move.

At the Brexit front, the European Union Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan was the newest man to join the regional diplomat’s voices who shook the Boris Johnson’s Brexit optimism. Moreover, the German minister struck a friendly tone while saying that the U.K. must get post-Brexit defense privileges.

At the USD front, the greenback got support from the upbeat data and over the news of Trump administration’s ability to strike the key trade deals with China, Mexico, and Canada.

Risk-sentiment is still inactive in the market despite China’s positive Industrial production data, and Retail Sales that crossed the forecast figures. The U.S. ten-year treasury yields rose by 1-basis-points to 1.82%. 

Looking forward, the U.K.’s December Retail Sales will be key to watch after the latest disappointment from inflation data, which increased the probabilities of the BOE’s rate cut. Economists are expecting an increase of 2.6% against 1.0% in the YoY figure, whereas the monthly growth might have reversed -0.6% prior growth to 0.7%. As a result, the U.S. housing figures, consumer sentiment, and industrial production will be closely observed for fresh direction.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2946
  • S2 1.3004
  • S1 1.304
  • Pivot Point 1.3062
  • R1 1.3098
  • R2 1.312
  • R3 1.3178

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On Friday, the GBP/USD pair continues to trade bullish as it has already violated the downward channel, which was formed on the 4-hour chart. At the moment, the GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.3077, and it seems to extend bullish rally until 1.3165. However, this heavily depends upon the British Retail Sales data, which is due later in the day. 

The GBP/USD pair may find support around 1.3030 area today, but the RSI and MACD support the bullish bias. Let’s look for buying trades above 1.3060.  

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair rose mainly due to the strong greenback, and upbeat Industrial data which came out from China. The USD/JPY hit the high level above 110.00 and recently crossed the Tuesday high level of 110.20. The USD/JPY currency pair is trading at 110.25, representing 0.10% gains on the day. The bullish U.S. stocks markets and the positive U.S. data boosted the pair.

At the USD front, the greenback was trading slightly bearish in previous sessions. Still, currently, but currently, the currency has shifted into the bullish territory, mainly due to the release of U.S. economic data. The U.S. dollar index erased losses and climbed to 97.35, rebounding from weekly lows. Moreover, the US Jan Philly Fed index at 17.0 also helped a bid in the U.S. dollar, beating expectations (est. 3.7, prior 2.4) to retest mid-2019 highs.

On the other hand, another positive factor behind the risk sentiment recovery is the U.S. Senate approved the USCMA trade agreement, which now awaits Canada to agree on it and for Trump’s imminent signing.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 109.57
  • S2 109.83
  • S1 110
  • Pivot Point 110.1
  • R1 110.27
  • R2 110.36
  • R3 110.62

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Friday, the USD/JPY pair is trading with a bullish bias at 110.200 after consolidating in a narrow trading range of 109.800 – 110.150. Recently, the USD/JPY pair has formed Three While Soldiers pattern on the 4-hour timeframe, which typically suggests a bullish trend in the market. 

The USD/JPY is now supported above 110.100, and we may see further buying above this level until 110.490 today. The USD/JPY may find a resistance level of 110.570. Moreover, the RSI and MACD are still staying in the buying zone. Today, I will be looking for buying trades over 110.1 level with a target of 110.570. 

All the best for today! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

AUD/USD Currency Pair Seesaws Near 0.6900 As Traders Want More Clarity Regarding Sino-US Trade deal.

The AUD/USD currency pair flat near the 0.6900, mainly due to mixed sentiment regarding the Sino-US trade deal. As of writing, the AUD/USD currency pair is currently trading at 0.6920. The currency pair recently benefited from the Sino-US phase-one trade deal signing and positive comments from the U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators.

The AUD/USD currency pair flat near the 0.6900, mainly due to mixed sentiment regarding the Sino-US trade deal. As of writing, the AUD/USD currency pair is currently trading at 0.6920. The currency pair recently benefited from the Sino-US phase-one trade deal signing and positive comments from the U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators.

The AUD/USD currency pair flat near the 0.6900, mainly due to mixed sentiment regarding the Sino-US trade deal. As of writing, the AUD/USD currency pair is currently trading at 0.6920. The currency pair recently benefited from the Sino-US phase-one trade deal signing and positive comments from the U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators.

Apart from the Sino-US trade deal, China also cheered Trump administration as the U.S. removed China from the currency manipulator list. Besides, the latest comments from the United States Senate leader McConnell who sent optimism that the latest United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) will pass the house on Friday, also supported the Aussie.

While the U.S. Vice President Mike Pence said that Phase 2 talks had already started and officials are struggling to resolve disputes. As in result, the risk-on sentiment improved in the market, and ultimately riskier assets also got support.

Looking forward, November month Home Loans and Investment Lending for Homes from Australia will be followed by China’sChina’s December month House Price Index to offer a fresh direction to the pair.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 0.682
S2 0.686
S1 0.6881
Pivot Point 0.6899
R1 0.6921
R2 0.6939
R3 0.6978

Technically speaking, the AUD/USD is trading bullish at 0.6920 within a bullish channel, which is keeping the Aussie on the higher side. The AUD/USD pair is likely to find resistance around 0.6930, but the latest higher’s high pattern may drive more buying in the AUD/USD pair.

The MACD and RSI are crossing over in the bullish zone, and these may underpin the demand for AUD/USD. On the higher side, the bullish breakout of 0.6930 is likely to lead Aussie prices towards 0.6960, while support continues to stay around 0.6900. Let’sLet’s stay bullish above 0.6910 today. Good luck!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 16 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Retail Sales In Highlights! 

On Thursday, the investors are watching strictly political events in the U.S. and Russia. The Democratic-led U.S. House of Representatives proposed on Wednesday to send impeachment charges against President Donald Trump to the Senate. Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev published the compliance of his government after President Vladimir Putin proposed some constitutional changes.

On Thursday, the investors are watching strictly political events in the U.S. and Russia. The Democratic-led U.S. House of Representatives proposed on Wednesday to send impeachment charges against President Donald Trump to the Senate. Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev published the compliance of his government after President Vladimir Putin proposed some constitutional changes.

On Thursday, the investors are watching strictly political events in the U.S. and Russia. The Democratic-led U.S. House of Representatives proposed on Wednesday to send impeachment charges against President Donald Trump to the Senate. Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev published the compliance of his government after President Vladimir Putin proposed some constitutional changes.

The U.S. official data showed that the Producer Price Index (PPI) increased 0.1% on month in December, less than +0.2% expected. The Empire Manufacturing Index posted at 4.8 in December, better than 3.6 expected.

Economic Events to Watch Today

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD prices closed at 1.11495 after placing a high of 1.11633 and a low of 1.11185. Overall the movement of EUR/USD remained bullish that day.

The EUR/USD pair climbed above 1.1162 level on Wednesday and posted a fresh weekly high. The general weakness of the U.S. dollar supported the move amid increased uncertainty after the release of details about the phase-one trade deal. 

The U.S. & China signed phase-one of the trade deal on Wednesday in which some tariffs on Chinese goods were retained, and this disappointed the traders. Hence, the U.S. dollar lost its demand, and the U.S. Dollar Index moved to weekly lows of 97.20.

The U.S. yields also fell and remained in negative territory on Wednesday and helped EUR/USD to move further in an upward direction. As for the data is concerned, the U.S. macroeconomic data came in mix, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) declined to 0.1% against the expected 0.2% weaker than expected PPI from the U.S. also helped EUR/USD prices to post weekly gains and rise above 1.116 level on Wednesday.

From the Europe side, at 12:45 GMT, the French Final Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December came in line with the expectations of 0.4%. AT 15:00 GMT, Industrial Production from the Eurozone in November showed a decline to 0.2% from expected 0.3% and weighed on single currency Euro.

The Trade Balance from the European Union whole bloc for November showed a deficit of 19.2B against the expectations of 22.3Band added in the pressure of single currency Euro. Though the economic data from Eurozone was against the Euro, it failed to drag the EUR/USD prices on Wednesday because of broad U.S. dollar weakness.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.1045
  • S2 1.1086
  • S1 1.1107
  • Pivot Point 1.1126
  • R1 1.1147
  • R2 1.1166
  • R3 1.1206

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD pair continues to form a higher-high pattern on the 4-hour timeframe, which signifies bullish bias among traders. The pair has recently violated the resistance level of 1.1140, and now it is testing the double top level of 1.1160. It has become the current trading range of EUR/USD for now as the pair is being traded within a limited range. It looks like the market is calm as traders await the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts and ECB President Lagarde’s speech. We may see EUR/USD trading bullish above 1.114. On the higher side, the violation of 1.1160 can extend buying until 1.1188 today.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair closed at 1.30373 after placing a high of 1.30423 and a low of 1.29848. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained bullish throughout that day.

The policymakers of Bank of England have pledged to vote in favor of rate cut and turned the stance of BoE dovish, which weighed on Pound. However, despite the weakness of Pound, the GBP/USD pair managed to post gains on Wednesday amid the U.S. dollar’s weakness.

The US-China trade deal finally got signed on Wednesday but failed to impress traders when the details revealed that most tariffs would remain in place. It weighed on the U.S. dollar and gave a boost to GBP/USD prices.

On the other hand, at 14:30 GMT, the Annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the month of December from the United Kingdom was declined to 1.3%from the expectations of 1.5% and weighed on British Pound. The Producer Price Index (PPI) Input in December from the United Kingdom also dropped to 0.1% against the forecasted 0.2%.

The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the year came in short of expectations and added in the pressure of Pound. It came as 1.4% against 1.7% forecasted. 

However, the House Price Index for the year from Britain increased to 2.2% from forecasted1.1% and supported Britain Pound. The PPI Output for December came in line with the expectations of 0.0%. 

The Retail Price Index (RPI) for December also dropped to 2.2% from expected 2.3% and weighed on British Pound.

Most data from Great Britain on Wednesday came against the expectations and weighed on Pound. This confirmed that policymakers would surely vote for a rate cut in the next meeting of Bank of England. GBP/USD was weighed a little after the release of economic data from the U.K. near the level of 1.298 but failed to post losses for the day.

The broad U.S. Dollar weakness gifted the gains posted by GBP/USD on Wednesday amid weaker than expected PPI data along with disappointed details from the US-China phase-one deal.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2845
  • S2 1.2924
  • S1 1.2972
  • Pivot Point 1.3002
  • R1 1.3051
  • R2 1.3081
  • R3 1.316

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On Thursday, the GBP/USD is taking a bullish turn since the release of negative economic data from the United States. The GBP/USD has violated the strong resistance level of 1.3028, which was extended by the downward channel, and it seems to close candle outside this range. Continuation of bullish trends can lead to GBP/USD prices towards 1.3100 and 1.3156 soon. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY closed at 109.892 after placing a high of 110.008 and a low of 109.788. Overall the movement of USD/JPY remained bearish throughout the day.

USD/JPY on Wednesday posted losses on the back of the broad weakness of the U.S. dollar amid the release of details of the Phase-one trade deal between the U.S. & China.

U.S. & China finally reached a deal on Wednesday and signed on it to reduce the global trade tensions. Also, the details of the US-China trade agreement were revealed on Wednesday, which is comprised of 86 pages.

Many aspects were included in the phase-one deal like China would increase its U.S. farm purchases in 2020-2021 by $200B from its 2017 purchases. China would provide better protection for intellectual property to U.S. China pledged not to force technology transfer in exchange for entering the Chinese market. 

Both countries agreed on providing a series of measures to open the financial services sector. Both countries agreed not to devalue their currencies to benefit their exports. However, the deal also mentioned that the U.S. would retain 25% tariffs on $250B worth of Chinese industrial goods, which were used by U.S. manufacturers. The tariffs were kept as a threat to China to fulfill its part of the deal.

However, traders got disappointed as tariffs were not removed, and uncertainty emerged in the market, which put pressure on USD/JPY prices.



Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 109.17
  • S2 109.51
  • S1 109.73
  • Pivot Point 109.84
  • R1 110.06
  • R2 110.17
  • R3 110.5

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Thursday, the USD/JPY pair is trading with a bullish bias at 110.017 after breaking above 109.600 triple top resistance level. Closing of Doji pattern followed by strong bullish candle seems to drive bearish bias for the pair, but it’s been trading with a bullish bias over faded demand for haven assets.

The USD/JPY may find a resistance level of 110.570. Moreover, the RSI and MACD are still staying in the buying zone. Today, I will be looking for buying trades over 109.84 level with a target of 110.570. 

All the best for today! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Gold Sideways Pattern Intact – Brace for a Breakout! 

The safe-haven-metal prices flashed green and rose by 0.6% to $1,553.15, mainly due to fresh uncertainty surrounding the United States and China phase-one trade deal.

The safe-haven-metal prices flashed green and rose by 0.6% to $1,553.15, mainly due to fresh uncertainty surrounding the United States and China phase-one trade deal.

The safe-haven-metal prices flashed green and rose by 0.6% to $1,553.15, mainly due to fresh uncertainty surrounding the United States and China phase-one trade deal.

At the Sino-US front, the United States decided that it will not remove tariffs on Chinese imports until the 2020 presidential elections. As a result, uncertainty surrounding the signing ceremony of phase one of the trade deal between the US and China emerged in the market. The meeting to sign the agreement is scheduled for today, while no details have yet been revealed regarding the contents of the trade deal.

It should be noted that the market traders are cautious and await for any detail release regarding the Sino-US phase-one trade deal ceremony for taking new directions. The meeting will take place today at the White House between the US & China (reportedly 11:30 am NY time but not confirmed).

The yellow metal rose at the starting of this week in the wake of U.S.-Iran tensions. However, risk sentiment recovered after when the two nations said they did not seek an intensification of the war. Therefore, we can say Iran-US war matter was the big reason behind the bullish gold rally last week.

On the other hand, the declining Treasury bond yields seem to push the greenback lower as well. The US Dollar Index, which tested the 97.50 marks earlier in the day, is now down 0.03% at 97.35. 

    


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1518.31
  • S2 1531.09
  • S1 1538.79

Pivot Point 1543.86

  • R1 1551.57
  • R2 1556.64
  • R3 1569.41

Gold surged as the US Core CPI number undershot economists anticipate and poorly performed, sending bullish reversal in the gold. Currently, precious metal gold is trading over a strong support level of 1,551, and the extension of trading over this level can encourage further buying in the gold. 

Alternatively, the next resistance is expected to appear nearby 1,556 and 1,559. The breach of 1,551 can lead to gold towards 1,546. The bullish bias remains active today. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 15 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eyes on PPI Figures! 

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index was little changed at 97.39 on Tuesday. Media reported that the remaining U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods imports are likely to stay in place until after the American presidential election. The Chinese yuan eased against the greenback, as USD/CNH edged up 0.1% to 6.8895, snapping a five-day decline.

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index was little changed at 97.39 on Tuesday. Media reported that the remaining U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods imports are likely to stay in place until after the American presidential election. The Chinese yuan eased against the greenback, as USD/CNH edged up 0.1% to 6.8895, snapping a five-day decline.

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index was little changed at 97.39 on Tuesday. Media reported that the remaining U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods imports are likely to stay in place until after the American presidential election. The Chinese yuan eased against the greenback, as USD/CNH edged up 0.1% to 6.8895, snapping a five-day decline.

The U.S. Labor Department will release December PPI (+1.3% on-year expected). The New York Federal Reserve will publish January Empire Manufacturing Index (3.6 expected). Also, The Federal Reserve will post its economic report, the Beige Book.

Economic Events to Watch Today

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair stopped its recovery rally and stuck in the bearish range mainly due to uncertainty surrounding the European Union and United States trade war. As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.1132 and consolidating in the narrow range between the 1.1125 – 1.1133. As we know, the currency pair hit a high level of 1.1135 during the U.S. trading hours and took a bid at a low near 1.11.

Moving ahead, the European Union’s (E.U.) new trade chief, Phil Hogan, is scheduled to meet the United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and other American officials during Jan. 14-16.

During his visit, Phil Hogan will try to stop the on-going conflict regarding France’s new digital services tax, European support for Boeing’s chief rival, Airbus, and other differences. Whereas some experts said that it might not prove to be peaceful for the Phil Hogan because administration and congress both are frustrated mainly due to European Unions’ unwillingness to negotiate with the United States about agriculture.

Meanwhile, the Houk Lee-Makiyama, director of the European Centre of International Political Economy in Brussels, said that traders would keep their eyes on EU-US matter until any underlying progress is made in resolving US-EU policy differences regarding trade. 

Looking forward, the EUR currency may not get significant gains during this week in the wake of EU-US uncertainty. However, the currency may get some support if the Eurozone Industrial Production data beats past expectations; by the way, the data is scheduled to release at 10:00 GMT.

At the Sino-US front, the United States decided that it will not remove tariffs on Chinese imports until the 2020 presidential elections complete. As a result, the uncertainty grew in the market concerning the signing ceremony of phase one of the trade deal between the U.S. and China, which is scheduled to happen today, while no details of the trade deal have been revealed before the ceremony.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.1062
  • S2 1.1097
  • S1 1.1115
  • Pivot Point 1.1131
  • R1 1.115
  • R2 1.1166
  • R3 1.12

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD has traded slightly higher as investors seem to price in weaker CPI sentiments ahead of the news release. The support becomes a resistance level of 1.1145 is holding the pair below this level. We may have a bullish or bearish breakout upon the release of U.S. CPI data during the U.S. session. 

A bullish breakout of 1.1145 can open further room for buying until 1.1208. Conversely, the closing of bearish candles below 1.1145 can drive the selling trend until 1.1100 support. The next support is likely to be found around 1.1075 today.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair is flashing green and continuing to trade in bullish sentiment towards 1.3050, mainly due to broad-based U.S. dollar weakness and traders await for the United Kingdom’s CPI report. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3028 and is consolidating in the range between the 1.3014 – 1.3030. 

As for today, the GBP currency has recovered to 1.3034 from the 3-week low of 1.2954. However, market traders are cautious ahead of the United States and China phase-one trade deal’s retail release. As well as, the signing ceremony leaves pressure on the greenback because the United States decided that it will not remove tariffs on Chinese imports until the 2020 presidential election completed. 

Moreover, the GBP currency got little love from the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s fresh comments about refusing Scottish Prime Minister Sturgeon’s request to hold another Scottish independence referendum, because it gives further support to Hard-Brexit concerns. Besides this, the weak UK GDP data and increased the expectations that BOE’s could continue dovish.

On the other hand, the upbeat U.K. annualized inflation figures will likely strengthen the GBP/USD currency pair’s recovery. However, the greenback’s movement is mainly impacting able for the pair because of the United States and China phase-one trade deal signing ceremony, which is scheduled to happen today at 16:30 GMT.

Looking forward to the calendar, the CPI report is the key data to watch today. As well as, traders will now wait to hear from MPC member Saunders, a former hawk turned dovish, to speak in Northern Ireland today at 08:40GMT. Also, the trader will keep their eyes on the Sino-US phase-one details and signing ceremony.


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2845
  • S2 1.292
  • S1 1.2955
  • Pivot Point 1.2996
  • R1 1.303
  • R2 1.3071
  • R3 1.3147

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On Wednesday, the GBP/USD continues to trade with bearish bias around 1.2980 after violating the 1.3045 support level. On the 4 hour timeframe, the pair has formed a strong bearish candle which is supporting the bearish trend in GBP/USD. The pair is currently trading in a bearish channel, which is extending resistance around 1.3034 along with support around 1.2906. While the MACD is still staying in the selling zone. I will be looking to take sell trades below 1.3000 today to target 1.2925 and 1.2906. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair hit the low of 109.81 from the high of 110.01, mainly due to the risk-off market sentiment in the wake of uncertainty surrounding the Sino-US phase-one trade deal. As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair is trading at 109.94 and is consolidating in the range between the 109.81 – 109.94.

Wall Street’s rally came to a sudden stop due to the statement that the United States decided that it will not remove tariffs on Chinese imports until the 2020 presidential elections completed. It raised the uncertainty surrounding the signing ceremony of phase one of the trade deal between the U.S. and China, which will happen today, while no details regarding the deal have been revealed before the ceremony.

Consequently, Asia equity markets have ticked lower after the similar negative bias with the ASX 200 (+0.2%), Nikkei 225 (-0.4%), KOSPI (-0.5%) at the time of writing. 

It should be noted that the market traders are cautious and await for any detail release regarding the Sino-US phase-one trade deal ceremony for taking new directions. Furthermore, the meeting is scheduled to happen today at the White House (reportedly 11:30 am N.Y. time but not confirmed).

Looking forward, the BoJ will maintain QQE with yield curve control for as long as needed to achieve a 2% inflation target. As well as, BoJ will continue to expand the monetary base until consumer inflation exceeds 2%. Moreover, it will not hesitate to take an additional rate cut if risks to achieve the price target grew.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 109.17
  • S2 109.51
  • S1 109.73
  • Pivot Point 109.84
  • R1 110.06
  • R2 110.17
  • R3 110.5

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Wednesday, the USD/JPY pair has traded in line with the previous forecast as it continues to trade bullish at 110.017 after breaking above 109.600 triple top resistance level. On the 4-hour timeframe, the candlestick pattern three while soldiers are likely to extend buying trend until the next resistance level of 110.570. Moreover, the RSI and MACD are still staying in the buying zone. Today, I will be looking for buying trades over 109.84 level with a target of 110.570. 

All the best for today! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 14 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eyes on U.S. Inflation!

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index kept trading within a tight range on Monday, closing flat on the day at 97.38. The U.S. government reversed its decision to brand China a currency manipulator. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said: “China has made enforceable commitments to refrain from competitive devaluation while promoting transparency and accountability.” China offshore yuan strengthened to the strongest level in six months, with USD/CNH dipping 0.5% to 6.8822.

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index kept trading within a tight range on Monday, closing flat on the day at 97.38. The U.S. government reversed its decision to brand China a currency manipulator. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said: “China has made enforceable commitments to refrain from competitive devaluation while promoting transparency and accountability.” China offshore yuan strengthened to the strongest level in six months, with USD/CNH dipping 0.5% to 6.8822.

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index kept trading within a tight range on Monday, closing flat on the day at 97.38. The U.S. government reversed its decision to brand China a currency manipulator. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said: “China has made enforceable commitments to refrain from competitive devaluation while promoting transparency and accountability.” China offshore yuan strengthened to the strongest level in six months, with USD/CNH dipping 0.5% to 6.8822.

Economic Events to Watch Today

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1135. Dismissals from the 1.1100-15 are aiming at higher marks. The initial point is 1.1152, supported by 1.1167. On Monday, the Euro has traded slightly bullish during the trading session but hasn’t been overly convincing. It seems as if we are yet striving to decide out where the pair is likely to go. 

An unexpectedly weaker figure will likely leave a bearish impact on the greenback, and supporting the EUR/USD pair may cross the range of 1.1150. The U.S. dollar was weak on Friday after the release of the negative wage growth figures for December.

Looking forward, the speeches by FOMC’s E.Rosengren (Boston Fed) and R.Bostic (Atlanta Fed) should keep the attention on the buck later in the N.A. session. Moreover, the traders will closely observe the critical event in the upcoming days, which includes the German GDP and the ECB Accounts on Wednesday and Thursday, as well.

    

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.1062
  • S2 1.1097
  • S1 1.1115
  • Pivot Point 1.1131
  • R1 1.115
  • R2 1.1166
  • R3 1.12

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD has traded slightly higher as investors seem to price in weaker CPI sentiments ahead of the news release. The support becomes a resistance level of 1.1145 is holding the pair below this level. We may have a bullish or bearish breakout upon the release of U.S. CPI data during the U.S. session. 

A bullish breakout of 1.1145 can open further room for buying until 1.1208. Conversely, the closing of bearish candles below 1.1145 can drive the selling trend until 1.1100 support. The next support is likely to be found around 1.1075 today.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The British pound lost 0.4% to $1.2987. Official data showed that U.K. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) shrank 0.3% on month in November (flat estimated), and industrial production slid 1.2% (flat expected).

At the GBP front, despite the significant recovery from the 3-week low of 1.2691, the GBP currency trader remained cautious from the bearish risk-sentiment due to increased sentiments of Bank of England’s rate cut as early as this September.

The Bank Of England Governor Carney said last week that there are the chances to deliver a rate cut by 250 basis points. Besides this, the BOE policymaker Vlieghe said during the weekend that if the improvement does not come in the economic data, he will back for a reduction.

Moreover, a series of depressing U.K. key data, including the monthly GDP reduction and a significant drop in the industrial and manufacturing production data, supports the case for the dovish BOE monetary policy stance.

Looking forward, the focus now will shift towards the U.S. inflation data, which is scheduled to release later in the N.A. session at 1330 GMT. Due to the lack of any critical data from U.K. docket traders will keep their eyes on U.S. inflation data and the Sino-US phase-one trade deal.   

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2845
  • S2 1.292
  • S1 1.2955
  • Pivot Point 1.2996
  • R1 1.303
  • R2 1.3071
  • R3 1.3147

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On Tuesday, the GBP/USD continues to trade with bearish bias around 1.2980 after violating the 1.3045 support level. On the 4 hour timeframe, the pair has formed a strong bearish candle which is supporting the bearish trend in GBP/USD. The pair is currently trading in a bearish channel, which is extending resistance around 1.3034 along with support around 1.2906. While the MACD is still staying in the selling zone. I will be looking to take sell trades below 1.3000 today to target 1.2925 and 1.2906. 

 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY climbed 0.4% to 110.01, the highest level since May 22. The USD/JPY currency pair hit the bullish level above the110 handles for the first time since May, mainly due to the fresh optimism surrounding the United States and China trade deal. 

As in result, the traders are selling the safe-have Japanese Yen in the wake of risk-on sentiment in the market. As of writing, the USD/JPY currency is currently trading at 110.08, having hit the high of 110.20. 

During the night, the USD/JPY currency pair strengthened its Asian session gains to a high of 109.94, a high since May 2019, in line with positive risk appetite. 

Meanwhile, the report came that the United States trade representative removed the currency manipulator tag for China, which also helped in increasing the risk-on market sentiment and also boosted the U.S. dollar.

The U.S. two-year Treasury yields increased to 1.585% (from 1.57% and a mild curve steepening allowed ten-year yields to test 1.85% from 1.82%. Fed funds futures indicated a modest (1bp) increase in implied yields across the curve, with the implied terminal rates up to 1.33% in early 2021.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 109.02
  • S2 109.28
  • S1 109.38
  • Pivot Point 109.54
  • R1 109.64
  • R2 109.8
  • R3 110.06

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY pair has traded in line with the previous forecast as it continues to trade bullish at 110.017 after breaking above 109.600 triple top resistance level.  

On the 4-hour timeframe, the candlestick pattern three while soldiers are likely to extend buying trend until the next resistance level of 110.570. Moreover, the RSI and MACD are still staying in the buying zone. Today, I will be looking for buying trades over 109.84 level with a target of 110.570. 

All the best for today! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Gold’s Sideways Range Remain Intact – Brace for Trade Plan!

The safe-haven-metal prices dropped mainly due to the Asian stocks, which traded higher in the wake of optimism surrounding the United States and China trade war.

The safe-haven-metal prices dropped mainly due to the Asian stocks, which traded higher in the wake of optimism surrounding the United States and China trade war.

The safe-haven-metal prices dropped mainly due to the Asian stocks, which traded higher in the wake of optimism surrounding the United States and China trade war.

As we already mentioned that the gold prices dropped on the day because the United States is expected to sign the on-going phase-one trade deal with China this week.

According to the agreement, China will increase imports from the U.S. in exchange for the stop of the December tariffs on Chinese imports to the U.S. and a partial rollback of some existing tariffs.

At the Iran-US front, the situation in Iran is still active due to people’s rally as its citizens protested for a 2nd-night after the government acknowledged on Saturday that it had mistakenly show down a Ukrainian passenger jet, killing all 176 people on board.

On the other hand, the gold prices got some support from the stable bond prices in the wake of unexpectedly weaker December U.S. payroll growth. That sent the interest lower and giving attraction to the non-yielding gold.

Iran’s statement came only after the U.S., U.K., Canada, and Australia said they know that an Iranian missile hit the plane according to our intelligence, but Iran did not accept it first.

Looking forward, further important U.S. macro is scheduled to release this week and will remain under the trader’s focus to take fresh direction. The U.S. economic docket this week shows the release of the latest consumer inflation figures on Tuesday, and monthly retail sales data is scheduled to release on Thursday.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1523.29
S2 1540.25
S1 1551.19
Pivot Point 1557.21
R1 1568.15
R2 1574.17
R3 1591.13

Gold continues to consolidate in the same trading range, which it maintains on Friday. The metal is trading around 1,552 level while it’s current trading range appears to be 1,561 – 1,543.

On Monday’, gold’s most important trading level will be 1,556. Beneath this mark, gold can trade with selling bias unto 1,550 and 1,545. Whereas, an upward breakout of 1,555 can stretch the bullish trend until 1,561. Good luck!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 13 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Stronger Dollar In Play! 

On the forex front, the U.S. dollar eased against other major currencies on Friday, as growth in December nonfarm payrolls missed expectations. The Dollar Index slipped 0.1% on the day to 97.36. The euro gained 0.1% to $1.1122.

On the forex front, the U.S. dollar eased against other major currencies on Friday, as growth in December nonfarm payrolls missed expectations. The Dollar Index slipped 0.1% on the day to 97.36. The euro gained 0.1% to $1.1122.

On the forex front, the U.S. dollar eased against other major currencies on Friday, as growth in December nonfarm payrolls missed expectations. The Dollar Index slipped 0.1% on the day to 97.36. The euro gained 0.1% to $1.1122.

The British pound fell 0.1% to $1.3061. Gertjan Vlieghe, a Bank of England policymaker, said in a Financial Times interview that he would vote for an interest-rate cut this month in case no signs of economic improvement show up after the general election. Later today, U.K. monthly GDP and industrial production for November will be reported (both flat on month expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair took an active bid mainly due to the greenback weakness on the back of weak jobs data and wage growth figures, which were released on Friday. As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.1130 and representing 0.10% gains on the day. The pair is consolidating in the range between the 1.1113 – 1.1131. 

The Nonfarm Payrolls data confirmed the economy added 145K jobs in December and disappointed the forecasted figure of 164K additions by a big margin. 

Especially, the average hourly earnings increased by 2.9% year-on-year in December compared to the 3.1% projection. That was the first under 3% figure since July 2018. The weak wage growth almost renewed disinflation concerns, and as a result, the U.S. ten-year treasury yield dropped by 7-basis points to 1.81% on Friday, which continued to add losses on the day and supported EUR/USD currency pair further.

The EUR currency will be likely to continue its recovery rally because of the United States and China trade optimism. The United States Treasury Secretary Steve Munchin told the markets that there would be negotiations regarding phase-two of the US-China trade deal when the Chinese representatives arrive on January 15.

Looking forward, the German Wholesale Price Index for November is scheduled to release at 07:00 GMT. However, the data rarely leave an impact on the markets. Generally, the EUR/USD pair is at the mercy of the action in the treasury yield for now.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.1023
  • S2 1.1068
  • S1 1.1094
  • Pivot Point 1.1112
  • R1 1.1138
  • R2 1.1156
  • R3 1.12

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is trading sideways as investors didn’t find any solid reason to determine the trend. The EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.1120, below a strong resistance level of 1.1140. The closing of Doji candle below 1.1140 is supporting the bearish bias. 

On the lower side, the EUR/USD has the opportunity to drop until 1.1070. Below this, the next support stays around 1.1040. The MACD is trying to cross below 0 to support the bearish bias, but there’s still no strong bearish fundamental which can push the pair lower. Consider staying bearish below 1.1125 today.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair is flashing red and continuing its 4-day losing streak mainly due to dovish tone from the Bank of England, and the European Union-Irish uncertainty surrounding the Brexit. Whereas, the pair is still trading bearish despite the greenback’s weakness. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3026 and consolidates in the range between the 1.3026 – 1.3045.

At the Brexit front, the Irish Deputy Prime Minister Simon indicated uncertainty on the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s deadline of December 31, 2020, for Brexit, which was also supported by the European Union chief Brexit negotiator and European Council President.

On the other hand, a survey led by the Confederation of British Industries (CBI) and the Price Water Cooper (PwC) showed that the business moral amongst the U.K.’s financial firms jumped for the first time in 4-years.

At the USD front, the greenback’s weakness could be attributed to weak employment figures released on Friday as well as the recent decrease in the U.S. Dollar’s demand. Notably, the rising optimism surrounding the United States & China trade front and decreased chances of the United States & Iran war are the reasons behind the risk-on sentiment in the market. 

Apart from this, the stocks in Asia and the S&P 500 Futures are still flashing green while the U.S. ten-year treasury yields show no signs of movement due to the Japanese holiday. It should also be mentioned that Iran recently arrested the United Kingdom’s ambassador to Tehran, and the global leaders do not like it.

Looking forward, the traders will keep their eyes on the U.K.’s November month Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production, monthly GDP and Trade Balance figures. There, a possible contraction in the production numbers to -0.3%, a fall in trade numbers, and no change in the GDP figure of 0.0% is expected, which would keep the pair’s movement under check. 

On the flip side, the Sino-US and Iran-US headlines will remain under the focus because no critical data and events are scheduled from the United States.


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2958
  • S2 1.3013
  • S1 1.3038
  • Pivot Point 1.3068
  • R1 1.3093
  • R2 1.3122
  • R3 1.3177

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD continues to trade with bearish bias around 1.2980 after violating the 1.3045 support level. On the 4 hour timeframe, the pair has formed a strong bearish candle which is supporting the bearish trend in GBP/USD. In addition to this, the UK GDP and Manufacturing figures have also disappointed the market.

The pair is currently trading in a bearish channel, which is extending resistance around 1.3034 along with support around 1.2906. While the MACD is still staying in the selling zone. I will be looking to take sell trades below 1.3000 today to target 1.2925 and 1.2906. 

 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair hit the bullish track and is trading just above the 100-week average, mainly due to the safe-haven Japanese yen lost ground in the wake of the Sino-US and Iran-US optimism. As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 109.64 and representing 0.17% gains on the day, as well as the pair consolidates in the range between the 109.50 – 109.65.

As we already mentioned, the anti-risk Japanese yen is losing ground in Asian trading hours due to risk-on sentiment in the market and pushing USD/JPY higher on the back of positive trade-related news flow. 

At the Sino-US front, the United States and China trade tensions continue to ease. Both countries are ready to sign an official trade deal this week. As well as, the White House Economic Advisor, Larry Kudlow, has said during the weekend that everything depends on the China trade deal. In contrast, the U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin told markets that there would be talks on the phase-two of the US-China trade deal when the Chinese delegates arrive on January 15.

Notably, the USD/JPY currency pair has failed many times to secure a weekly close above the key average since the last week of November. Moreover, the pair may face a hard time to beat a breakout because markets are likely to offer greenback on disinflation concerns. 

At the data front, the data released on Friday showed the average hourly earnings increased by just 2.9% year-on-year in December compared to the 3.1% projection. That was the first below-3% reading since July 2018. 

While the Nonfarm payrolls showed, the economy added 145K jobs in December, missing the expected print of 164K additions by a big margin.

Looking forward, the Sino-US and Iran-US headlines will remain under the focus because of no major data and events scheduled from the United States.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 109.02
  • S2 109.28
  • S1 109.38
  • Pivot Point 109.54
  • R1 109.64
  • R2 109.8
  • R3 110.06

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY pair is trading bullish around 109.820 after breaking above a resistance level of 109.550. The way USD/JPY has closed three while soldiers on the 4-hour timeframe, which is likely to extend buying trend until the next resistance level of 110.570.  

Leading indicators are massively overbought, and USD/JPY is looking for a reason to trigger bearish retracement. Let’s keep an eye on 110.570 level to capture a sell positon below level. All the best! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Gold Sideways Session Continues Despite Weak NFP Report! 

Gold prices trimmed down on Friday, after sinking as much as 1% in the prior session, as rising tensions in the Middle East lead traders to shift to riskier assets. The safe-haven-metal prices still flashing red and continue to drop mainly due to risk-on sentiment in the market in the wake of de-escalated US-Iran conflict.

Gold prices trimmed down on Friday, after sinking as much as 1% in the prior session, as rising tensions in the Middle East lead traders to shift to riskier assets. The safe-haven-metal prices still flashing red and continue to drop mainly due to risk-on sentiment in the market in the wake of de-escalated US-Iran conflict.

Gold prices trimmed down on Friday, after sinking as much as 1% in the prior session, as rising tensions in the Middle East lead traders to shift to riskier assets. The safe-haven-metal prices still flashing red and continue to drop mainly due to risk-on sentiment in the market in the wake of de-escalated US-Iran conflict.

As we all well aware that the gold prices hit the high level of $1,611 on Wednesday since 7-year high after Iran shot ballistic missiles at two Iraqi airbases housing U.S. forces. But later, U.S. President Donald Trump gave the sluggish comments regarding impose new economic restrictions on Iran rather than taking any military action against the country. 

Most Asian markets continued to rise on Friday morning as well because trade talks between the U.S. and China continued to move forward according to the plan and will sign the deal on 15 January.

The statement came from China’s Vice Premier Liu He, head of the country’s negotiation team in China-U.S. trade talks, said that he is set to visit Washington next week to sign a trade deal with the U.S.

With this, the U.S. 10-year treasury yields take the bids around 1.865% while S&P 500 Futures marks 0.20% gains to cross 3,280 by the time of writing.


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1481.92
  • S2 1525.03
  • S1 1540.84

Pivot Point 1568.13

  • R1 1583.95
  • R2 1611.24
  • R3 1654.34

Gold traded in line with the prior estimate as it dropped sharply on the breach of 1,552 marks to set a low around 1,538. At the moment, 1,552 is working as a critical trading level. Below this, gold can trade bearish unto 1,542. 

On the upper side, the bullish breakout of 1,552 can encourage buying, but for that, we need a strong reason, and the weaker and expected NFP can be this reason today. In any event, an upward breakout of 1,552 can lead to gold prices towards 1,561. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 10 – Top Trade Setups In Forex -NFP Figures in Highlights! 

The U.S. dollar strengthened for a third straight session on Thursday, ahead of the release of December nonfarm payrolls report due later today. The ICE Dollar Index gained 0.1% on the day to 97.42.

The U.S. dollar strengthened for a third straight session on Thursday, ahead of the release of December nonfarm payrolls report due later today. The ICE Dollar Index gained 0.1% on the day to 97.42.

The U.S. dollar strengthened for a third straight session on Thursday, ahead of the release of December nonfarm payrolls report due later today. The ICE Dollar Index gained 0.1% on the day to 97.42.

The euro was broadly flat at $1.1109. Official data showed that the eurozone’s jobless rate was steady at 7.5% in November as expected, while German industrial production grew 1.1% on the month (+0.8% estimated).

The British pound slipped 0.2% to $1.3069, posting a three-day decline. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney indicated that an interest rate cut may still be possible, saying, “there is a debate at the MPC (monetary policy committee) over the relative merits of near term stimulus to reinforce the expected recovery in U.K. growth and inflation.”

Economic Events to Watch Today

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair flat near the 1.11 and traders stay on the waiting mode ahead of the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report for December, which is scheduled to release at 13:30 GMT. As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.1109 and consolidates in the narrow range between the 1.1102 – 1.1111.

The currency pair charted a Doji candle Thursday because it marked two-way business and closed on a flat note. The Doji candle represents a lack of clear directional bias or indecision in the market place. 

Moving ahead, the pair may hit the bearish track if the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls ignore expectations. Moreover, the United States economy expected to have added 164,000 new jobs in December, after increasing 226,000 positions during November. The unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 305%, along with the participation rate is projected at 63.2%.

Meanwhile, Average Hourly Earnings are rising by 0.3% month-on-month and by 3.1% year-on-year, almost unchanged from the previous month.

According to the forecast, the positive report will likely support the dollar to gain across the board. In that case, EUR/USD will hit the bearish close below 1.1093. Although, in the case of a below-forecast NFP and wage growth figures, the shared currency may find bids, pushing the EUR/USD above 1.1120.

At the USD front, the greenback currency found on the bullish track because the markets await ahead of the NFP report. The U.S. Index is higher for the 3rd-consecutive day, trading back 97.50.

At the Sino-US front, the United States and China will possibly sign a phase one trade deal on January 15. However, any fresh is not coming yet regarding the Sino-US trade deal, but the trader keeps their eyes on January 15 for new impulse.

Looking forward, the Non-Farm Employment Change report is the trader radar, which is due to release at 13:30 GMT. Traders will also keep their focus on the Unemployment rate and Average Hourly Earnings, which are scheduled to release at the same time.



Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.1014
  • S2 1.1067
  • S1 1.1086
  • Pivot Point 1.1121
  • R1 1.114
  • R2 1.1174
  • R3 1.1227

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is trading in a bearish mode below a crucial trading level of 1.1130, testing the support next level of 1.1100. This level worked as a support during the previous days, but this time it seems to get violated as the EUR/USD has formed a strong bearish candle. The MACD is trading below 0 levels, which is suggesting odds of the bearish trend continuation for the EUR/USD. 

On the 4 hour chart, the pair had formed a bullish channel that has now been violated at 1.1130 level, and now this can lead the EUR/USD prices towards 1.1077 level. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD closed at 1.30659 after placing a high of 1.31234 and a low of 1.30130. Overall the movement of GBP/USD remained bearish throughout the day.

The GBP/USD came under pressure after the Bank of England’s governor gave hints for an interest rate cut, and the pair GBP/USD dropped near 1.30 level.

On Thursday, the Governor of Bank of England, Mark Carney, dropped hints that interest rates could be cut soon to boost the British economy. He also warned that the BoE was running low on ways to fight the recession.

He said that the British economy had been sluggish recently, and the inflation was below the bank’s target of 2%. He added that if the weakness in the economy persisted the same, then the central bank could cut interest rates.

His comments put pressure on Britain Pound and sent it near 2-week lowest point against the U.S. dollar on Thursday. Mark Carney, in the previous monetary policy meeting of Bank of England, backed himself from cutting interest rates while 2 of nine policymakers were in favor of cutting rates to 0.5% from 0.75%.

He also said that there were tentative signs of stabilization in the global economy after a slowdown for almost 18 months, while the chances for Britain’s economy to drop still remain because of uncertainty after Boris Johnson’s election victory.

Regarding inflation, he said that the level of interest rates required to keep inflation steady would need to remain low for a prolonged period of time.

On the other hand, the U.S. dollar remained strong on Thursday amid positive job data from the U.S. labor department, which showed that jobless claims during the previous week decreased to 214K from expected 221K and supported U.S. dollar. The strong U.S. dollar added to the downward movement of GBP/USD.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3: 1.3296
  • R2: 1.3206
  • R1: 1.3151
  • Pivot Point 1.3116
  • S1: 1.3061
  • S2: 1.3026
  • S3: 1.2936

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD continues to trade with bearish bias after violating the 1.3045 support level. On the 4 hour chart, the pair has closed a bearish engulfing candle under 1.3045 support level, which is a proof of bearish breakout. Below 1.3045, the GBP/USD has the potential to trade lower until 1.3000 level and even towards 1.2910 support zone. 

The leading indicators, such as RSI and MACD, are also supporting the bearish bias among traders. I will consider taking selling positions below 1.3058 to target 1.3000 today. 

 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY closed at 109.514 after placing a high of 109.580 and a low of 109.010. Overall the movement of USD/JPY remained bullish throughout the day. The safe-haven Yen falls to 2-week lowest point against the U.S. dollar on Thursday amid the de-escalation of tensions between the U.S. & Iran after the targeted killing of Iranian general Qassem Soleimani by U.S. military.

On Wednesday, Iran, in retaliation against its general murder, dropped missiles on Iraqi airbases where U.S. troops were hosted. However, there were no American casualties that led to U.S. President Donald Trump to stop further military action against Iran. 

Instead, Trump announced economic & financial sanctions on Iran in response to Iranian airstrikes. Furthermore, the Iran officials also said that their missile attacks were to conclude the retaliation, and no more attacks will be made from them. Both parties backed from any escalation of military actions, and this gave pressure to safe-haven currencies like Yen.

Weaker Japanese Yen caused the USD/JPY to move in the reverse direction, and the pair moved to its 2-week highest level above 109.5.

On the other hand, the U.S. dollar remained strong across the board on the back of strong economic data and supportive comments from Federal Reserve officials.

At 1:00 GMT, the Consumer Credit from the U.S. Federal Reserve for November was released, which showed a decline to 12.5B from the expected 15.5B and weighed on the U.S. dollar. However, at 18:30 GMT, the Unemployment Claims from the U.S. Department of Labor dropped to 214K from forecasted 221K and supported the U.S. dollar.

   

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 106.93
  • S2 107.9
  • S1 108.49
  • Pivot Point 108.87
  • R1 109.46
  • R2 109.84
  • R3 110.81

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY pair is trading bullish around 109.420 after breaking above a resistance level of 108.950. The way USD/JPY is forming bullish candles shows a strong buying bias among investors. We may see USD/JPY targeting the triple top resistance level around 109.700. 

Leading indicators are massively overbought, and USD/JPY is looking for a reason to trigger bearish retracement. 109.750 can offer this reason today. Let’s keep an eye on this level to capture a sell positon below this today. All the best! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Gold’s 38.2% Fibonacci Level Holds – What’s Next?

A day before, gold soared to a high of $1,611 an ounce once news about Iran attacking U.S. targets in Iraqi broke out. However, the yellow metal retreated for the rest of the session, over worries about an escalation between the U.S. and Iran. It closed at $1,556, down from $1,574 in the prior session.

A day before, gold soared to a high of $1,611 an ounce once news about Iran attacking U.S. targets in Iraqi broke out. However, the yellow metal retreated for the rest of the session, over worries about an escalation between the U.S. and Iran. It closed at $1,556, down from $1,574 in the prior session.

A day before, gold soared to a high of $1,611 an ounce once news about Iran attacking U.S. targets in Iraqi broke out. However, the yellow metal retreated for the rest of the session, over worries about an escalation between the U.S. and Iran. It closed at $1,556, down from $1,574 in the prior session.

The safe-haven-metal prices dropped sharply mainly due to deescalated tension between the United States and Iran war after the U.S. President Trump sluggish speech regarding missile attacks. 

Iran appeared to be standing down, calling it a good thing for all parties concerned. Furthermore, the fact that we have this great military and equipment, therefore, does not mean we have to use it.

It is worth to mention that before U.S. President Donald Trump’s speech, there were already signs rising from Iran for a de-escalation. As of consequence, markets turned into risk-on sentiment and thought that the U.S. would not take any revenge. Whereas, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif tweeted that the country does “not try escalation of the war.

However, the main driver behind the gold prices was President Donald Trump’s delayed response to the missile attack yesterday. Once a time, the market was shaken in the wake of Trump’s answer, but no one did know that Trump would deliver a soft speech regarding attacks.



Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1481.81

S2 1524.92

S1 1540.62

Pivot Point 1568.02

R1 1583.73

R2 1611.13

R3 1654.24

On the technical front, the precious metal gold has formed bearish candle at 1,550, which is engulfing the previous candle, suggesting chances of a bearish retracement in gold. In fact, gold has already completed 38.2% Fibo retracement at 1,552 level. 

Closing of the daily candle above 1,550/48 level may drive bullish correction on today and tomorrow until the most awaited NFP is released. At the moment, we can look for selling trades below 1,557 and bullish trades above 1,547 until the breakout occurs. 

Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 9 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Stronger Dollar In Play! 

The U.S. dollar rebounded for a second straight session on Wednesday, lifted by a stronger-than-expected ADP jobs report. The Dollar Index rose 0.3% on the day to 97.31.

The U.S. dollar rebounded for a second straight session on Wednesday, lifted by a stronger-than-expected ADP jobs report. The Dollar Index rose 0.3% on the day to 97.31.

The U.S. dollar rebounded for a second straight session on Wednesday, lifted by a stronger-than-expected ADP jobs report. The Dollar Index rose 0.3% on the day to 97.31.

Safe-haven assets and currencies lost bids as the U.S.-Iran tensions showed no signs of escalation. USD/JPY marked a day-low of 107.64 before bouncing back to close at 109.04, up 0.6%.

The euro slid 0.4% to $1.1113. Official data showed that German factory orders declined 1.3% on month in November (+0.2% expected). Later today, the eurozone’s jobless rate for November will be released (steady at 7.5% expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today

 


 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair rose slightly and representing 0.10% gain, mainly due to the greenback weakness despite the upbeat U.S. macro news and de-escalated tensions between the United States and Iran. The EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.1117 and consolidates in the range between the 1.1103 – 1.1119.

Despite the recent gain in the EUR/USD, the pair remains prone to further bearish risks amid bearish technical set up. Notably, the market is still cautious that the currency pair could show less reaction on the Industrial Production data after the EUR currency ignored the unexpected declines in the German Factory order, which is released on Wednesday.

At the data front, the eurozone’s manufacturing powerhouse Germany is set to publish Industrial Production, Current Account and Trade Balance data for November at 07:00 GMT. 

The industrial data is anticipated to show the factory activity increased at a seasonally adjusted rate of 0.7% month-on-month in November, having dropped by 1.7% in the previous month. The annualized number is forecasted to print at -3.8% vs. September’s -5.3%. 

Whereas, Germany’s Current Account data for November is expected to arrive at EUR 16.9B vs. EUR 22.7B last. The Trade Balance figure is seen at EUR 20B as against EUR 20.6B booked in October. Imports are seen rising while Exports are expected to drop in the reported month.

On the other hand, the Industrial Production is hardly likely to see any positive surprise in November, as suggested by the lead indicators. 

The Industrial Production released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland measures outputs of the German factories and mines. Changes in industrial production are broadly understood as a significant sign of strength in the manufacturing sector. A high figure is considered as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a low number is considered as negative (or bearish).

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.1015
  • S2 1.1068
  • S1 1.1088
  • Pivot Point 1.1122
  • R1 1.1141
  • R2 1.1175
  • R3 1.1228

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is trading in a bearish mode below a crucial trading level of 1.1130, testing the support next level of 1.1100. This level worked as a support during the previous days, but this time it seems to get violated as the EUR/USD has formed a strong bearish candle. The MACD is trading below 0 levels, which is suggesting odds of the bearish trend continuation for the EUR/USD. 

On the 4 hour chart, the pair had formed a bullish channel which has now been violated at 1.1130 level, and now this can lead the EUR/USD prices towards 1.1077 level. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair is steady near the 200-weekly Moving Average with a slight bearish flow ahead of Brexit negotiations. The Cable is currently trading at 1.3108 and consolidates in the range between 1.3097 – 1.3115.

The GBP/USD currency pair has been confused due to the crossfire of risk-off and risk-on market sentiment after the missile attack and tensions in the Middle East. At this moment, the United States President Donald Trump de-escalated tension by not given any immediate reaction to an Iranian attack that help global trade deals to come back on the front.

Therefore, global trade deals are the key driver to watch. First of all, traders will keep their eyes on the United States and China phase-1 trade deal. As we know, both nations are ready to sign the agreement on January 15. The market focus will also be on the Brexit deal because the Europan Parliament also gives the green indicator, and the United Kingdom officially leaves the Europan Union on January 31 with a departure deal. After completing the departure deal, the United Kingdom will enter the transition period until December 31, 2020.

Looking forward, the global trade deal will be the key to watch, and traders will carefully follow any fresh news regarding the Brexit and Sino-US trade deal. The US-Iran fresh progress will be essential to watch. Apart from the headlines, the BOE Gov Carney will deliver the speech today. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3: 1.3296
  • R2: 1.3206
  • R1: 1.3151
  • Pivot Point 1.3116
  • S1: 1.3061
  • S2: 1.3026
  • S3: 1.2936

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD continues to trade with bearish bias after violating the 1.3045 support level. On the 4 hour chart, the pair has closed a bearish engulfing candle under 1.3045 support level, which is a proof of bearish breakout. Below 1.3045, the GBP/USD has a potential to trade lower until 1.3000 level and even towards 1.2910 support zone. 

The leading indicators, such as RSI and MACD, are also supporting the bearish bias among traders. I will consider taking selling positions below 1.3058 to target 1.3000 today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair flashing green and representing 0.15% gains in the Asian trading hours mainly due to the greenback recovery in the wake of de-escalated tensions between the United States and Iran war after the Trumps sluggish speech overnight. The USD/JPY is currently trading at 109.33 and consolidates in the range between the 109.02 – 109.33.

As for the previous sessions, the USD/JPY currency pair hit the bullish track from the low of 107.65, mainly due to Iran’s missile attack but later returned to 108.45 by the London morning, having hit the high of 109.20 during the U.S. session. Ahead of the U.S. President Donald Trump’s speech, there were already signs rising from Iran for a de-escalation. As of consequence, markets turned into risk-on sentiment and thought that the U.S. would not take any revenge.

No damage was found in the missile attacks from Iran. This is why, rather than taking any military action, Trump said that he was imposing more restrictions on Iran. As of result, the risk recovered and yields rallied, ass well as greenback got the support.

At the data front, the ten-year yields recovered from 1.70% to 1.87% (was 1.79% at the Sydney close). There was a small drop back in the Sydney morning though on headlines reporting rockets being fired at the U.S. “green zone” in Baghdad, While markets are pricing a near-zero chance of rate cut at the next Fed meeting on January 29 but a terminal rate of 1.25% (vs Fed’s mid-rate at 1.63% currently).

As for U.S. data, the US Dec ADP private payroll is beat estimates with a job gain of 202k (est. 160k), and Nov was revised higher to 124k (from 67k), bringing it closer to the official data.

    

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 106.93
  • S2 107.9
  • S1 108.49
  • Pivot Point 108.87
  • R1 109.46
  • R2 109.84
  • R3 110.81

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY pair is trading bullish around 109.420 after breaking above a resistance level of 108.950. The way USD/JPY is forming bullish candles shows a strong buying bias among investors. We may see USD/JPY targeting the triple top resistance level around 109.700. 

Leading indicators are massively overbought, and USD/JPY is looking for a reason to trigger bearish retracement. 109.750 can offer this reason today. Let’s keep an eye on this level to capture a sell positon below this today. All the best! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

WTI Crude Oil Prices Jumped On US-Iran War Sentiment! 

Earlier today, the WTI crude oil prices hit the bullish track and climbed to 1.3% to $63.53, mainly after Iran attacked two United States airbases in the wake of U.S. airstrike that killed the Iranian general last week, flashing worries regarding the escalating conflict between the United States and Iran.

Earlier today, the WTI crude oil prices hit the bullish track and climbed to 1.3% to $63.53, mainly after Iran attacked two United States airbases in the wake of U.S. airstrike that killed the Iranian general last week, flashing worries regarding the escalating conflict between the United States and Iran.

Earlier today, the WTI crude oil prices hit the bullish track and climbed to 1.3% to $63.53, mainly after Iran attacked two United States airbases in the wake of U.S. airstrike that killed the Iranian general last week, flashing worries regarding the escalating conflict between the United States and Iran.

The U.S. crude oil later fell from $63.53 to trade around $62 during the European session. Crude oil prices soared as much as 5% earlier in the day following the news, but gave up all of their increases following in the day as Iran’s foreign minister announced it had “settled proportionate steps in protection” and is not attempting war.

Supply worries extended due to an intensifying conflict between the United States and Iran after the U.S. airstrike killed general Qassem Soleimani last week. In total13 missies have been reported launched at the Ain Assad Air Base. White House answers they are aware of the attack, and U.S. President Trump has been briefed and is monitoring the situation.

It is worth to mention that the United States President Donal Trump will make a statement tonight. With this, the U.S. Defense Secretary Esper and U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo have arrived at the White House. On the other hand, Iran’s guards warn the U.S. any aggression against Tehran will get a worse response.

Meanwhile, the American Petroleum Institute reported that crude stockpiles dropped by 5.9 million barrels for the week ended Jan. 3, compared with a plunge of about 11.5 million barrels reported for the week before.

Whereas, the Energy Information Administration is expected to report a decline of around 3.6 million barrels when it publishes official figures tomorrow.

At the Sino-US front, the improvements on the Sino-U.S. trade front also remained as the focus. The two nations were reportedly going to sign a phase one trade deal on Jan. 15.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 57.4

S2 60.7

S1 62.71

Pivot Point 64.01

R1 66.01

R2 67.31

R3 70.62

Looking at the 4-hour timeframe, the WTI prices are holding around 62 after violating the support level of 62.30. Crude oil is now facing support around 61.30, which is extended by an upward trendline. The WTI prices are likely bouncing off above this level to target 62.30.  

On the chart above, we can see the WTI seems to form a Doji candle, which is followed by a strong bearish bias. Typically such candles drive bullish trends in the market. I will consider taking buying positions above 61.20 to target 62.27. Above 62.30, the U.S. Oil can soar up to 63. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 8 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eyes on Trump’s Speech! 

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index rebounded 0.3% on the day to 96.97 on Tuesday. The USD/JPY dipped 0.4% to 108.00, as U.S.-Iran tensions curbed investors’ risk appetite. This morning, the pair slid further to 107.67, the lowest level since mid-October, following reports that Iran has started attacks on U.S. targets in Iraq.

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index rebounded 0.3% on the day to 96.97 on Tuesday. The USD/JPY dipped 0.4% to 108.00, as U.S.-Iran tensions curbed investors’ risk appetite. This morning, the pair slid further to 107.67, the lowest level since mid-October, following reports that Iran has started attacks on U.S. targets in Iraq.

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index rebounded 0.3% on the day to 96.97 on Tuesday. The USD/JPY dipped 0.4% to 108.00, as U.S.-Iran tensions curbed investors’ risk appetite. This morning, the pair slid further to 107.67, the lowest level since mid-October, following reports that Iran has started attacks on U.S. targets in Iraq.

The Euro dropped 0.4% to $1.1154. Official data showed that the Eurozone’s CPI grew 1.3% on year in December (as expected), while retail sales in November rose 1.0% on the month (+0.7% expected). Later today, German factory orders for November will be released (+0.2% on month expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair is representing limited gains, having hit the 5-day average resistance level at 1.1168 and looking to gain ground again mainly due to intensified geopolitical tensions. The EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.1147 and consolidates in the range between the 1.1145 – 1.1169.

The German data is due to come out at 06:00 GMT and expected to show Factory Orders rose by 0.3% month-on-month in November, having dropped by 0.4% in the preceding month. In year-on-year terms, factory orders are anticipated to have slipped by 5.5%. 

On the flip side, the positive reading may support the narrative that the German economy has bottomed out and will likely help the EUR/USD currency pair re-test resistance at 1.1206. The EUR currency will likely face losses if the data drops short of expectations by a significant margin. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.1042
  • S2 1.1101
  • S1 1.1127
  • Pivot Point 1.116
  • R1 1.1186
  • R2 1.1219
  • R3 1.1279

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is trading bearish around 1.1132, testing the support level of 1.1130. This level worked as a support during the previous days, the way Euro is forming candles, it seems to violate it pretty soon. On the 4 hour chart, the pair has formed a bullish channel that is keeping the EUR/USD supported near 1.1110. The MACD is just crossing below the 0 levels, which is suggesting odds of the bearish trend in the EUR/USD. At the same time, the bearish engulfing candle on the daily timeframe is adding further bearish bias on the EUR/USD pair. Let’s stay bearish below 1.1160 today. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair stay quite and consolidates in the narrow range between the 1.3105 – 1.3040 in the wake of the United States and Iran war fears. The GBP/USD currency pair is trading at 1.3119. Notably, the pair did not show a massive response to the early-day attack by Iran to the U.S.

The GBP traders gave a weak response to the greenback’s weakness amid Iran’s attack on the United States bases in Iraq. Apart from this, the USD dropped later when the United States did not take any action instantly.

As we already mentioned in the previous report that the UK PM Johnson would stick to his Brexit deadline, i.e., the end of 2020. Though, the previous headline suggested that the country will likely push the British leader towards a soft landing. The Bill of Tory leaders is still safe to the reaction of the opposition, mainly due to the clear majority of the ruling Conservatives. 

Although, the opposition Labour Party blamed the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson of giving protection to the United States PM Donald Trump regarding the killing of Iran military general.

At the US-Iran war front, the United States President Donald Trump is also ready to speak on Iranian attacks over the U.S. bases in Baghdad and could affect the market’s moves. The U.S. ADP Employment Change and comments from Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard can also be the reason behind the pair moves.


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2905
  • S2 1.3022
  • S1 1.3066
  • Pivot Point 1.314
  • R1 1.3184
  • R2 1.3257
  • R3 1.3375

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is also trading bullish around 1.3185 due to weakness in the U.S. dollar. The recent bullish engulfing candle is suggesting odds of bullish trend continuation in the GBP/USD pair. 

On the higher side, the GBP/USD may find resistance near 1.3185 level today while the support still stays at 1.3060. A bullish breakout of 1.3185 level can extend the bullish trend until 1.3285. Let’s stay bullish above 1.3125 today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair dropped to 108.00, having hit the low of 107.83, mainly due to the risk-off market sentiment in the wake of Iran’s missile attacks on the U.S. airbases in Iraq earlier today. But currently, the USD/JPY currency pair has recovered to 108.50 but failed near the 108.45 due to risk recovery after confirmed that no damages have been seen by the United States President Donald Trump from the Iranian attacks. 

The USD/JPY pair is currently trading at 108.38 and consolidates in the range between the 107.64 – 108.53. More than one dozen missies have been reportedly launched at the Ain Assad Air Base. White House answers that they are aware of the attack, and the U.S. President Trump has been briefed, and he is monitoring the situation.

It is worth to mention that the United States President Donal Trump will make a statement tonight. With this, the U.S. Defense Secretary Esper and U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo have arrived at the White House. On the other hand, Iran’s guards warn the U.S. any aggression against Tehran will get a worse response.

Meanwhile, the market’s risk tone recently weakened with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yields slipping more than seven pips to 1.75%, whereas the S&P 500 Futures are losing more than 1% to 3,200 by the press time.

Looking forward, the traders will now keep their eyes on further progress surrounding the US-Iran tension for fresh direction. At the economic front, Japan’s Consumer Confidence for December and the US ADP Employment Change, an early signal to Friday’s NFP, will be closely observed.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 106.54
  • S2 107.34
  • S1 107.66
  • Pivot Point 108.14
  • R1 108.46
  • R2 108.95
  • R3 109.75

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY pair is trading bullish around 108.720, which marks 50% Fibonacci retracement on the 240 minutes chart. The pair is pretty much likely to surge higher to complete th2 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 108.950. 

The MACD is forming bigger histograms than before, which indicates the positive sentiment of traders. Lastly, the 4 hour time has formed three white soldiers pattern, which is likely to keep the USD/JPY bullish today. Consider taking buying trades above 108.500 to target 108.950. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

EUR/JPY Completes 50% Fibo Retracement – 61.8% Mark In Eyes!

The EUR/JPY is trading with a bearish bias at 120.950 areas in the wake of the U.S. Iran trade war. Iran immediately called a parliament to decide whether US troops should remain in Iran soil or not. The parliament voted the US troop withdrawal from Iran, which was criticized by the US.

The EUR/JPY is trading with a bearish bias at 120.950 areas in the wake of the U.S. Iran trade war. Iran immediately called a parliament to decide whether US troops should remain in Iran soil or not. The parliament voted the US troop withdrawal from Iran, which was criticized by the US.

The EUR/JPY is trading with a bearish bias at 120.950 areas in the wake of the U.S. Iran trade war. Iran immediately called a parliament to decide whether US troops should remain in Iran soil or not. The parliament voted the US troop withdrawal from Iran, which was criticized by the US.

The US President Trump said that they had invested billions of dollars in building an airbase in Iran, and they would not leave until Iran pay them back. US army denied the troop withdrawal from Iran.
Iran then announced that it would no longer follow the 2015 nuclear contract with the world powers. According to that provision, Iran was bound to follow the uranium enrichment limits mentioned under the 2015 Nuclear Agreement.

In response to what, US President tweeted that Iran would never become a Nuclear Power. He then said that the US military would attack 52 Iranian Historical values if they make US troops to leave Iran. This has increased the geopolitical tensions throughout the globe and has increased the uncertainty as to which extent these countries could go further.

On the other hand, the FOMC meeting minutes for the December meeting were released on Sunday, which showed that US Fed policymakers were in favor of further easing. However, Federal Reserve has already announced that no further rate cuts would be made in 2020, and the interest rates will remain unchanged throughout the year.


EUR/JPY – Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance
121.16 121.35
121.06 121.44
120.87 121.64
Pivot Point 121.25

The EUR/JPY pair has already completed 38.2% Fibonacci retracement around 120.950, and it’s now likely to head towards 61.8% Fibo levels. Immediate support is expected to be found around 120.800 level, while the MACD and RSI support the bearish bias. The idea is to trade bearish below 121.005 to complete 61.8% Fibonacci retracement around 120.650 today.

Good luck!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 7 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Risk-off Sentiment Dominates! 

The U.S. Dollar Index dropped 0.3% on the day to 96.62 on Monday, as better-than-expected economic data lifted the euro and the pound.

The U.S. Dollar Index dropped 0.3% on the day to 96.62 on Monday, as better-than-expected economic data lifted the euro and the pound.

The U.S. Dollar Index dropped 0.3% on the day to 96.62 on Monday, as better-than-expected economic data lifted the euro and the pound.

The euro gained 0.3% to $1.1195. Official data showed that German retails sales grew 2.1% on month in November (+1.0% expected). The eurozone’s Sentix Investor Confidence Index climbed to 7.6 in January (2.6 expected) from 0.7 in December. 

The December Market Services PMI (final reading) was reported at 52.9 for Germany (52.0 expected) and 52.8 for the eurozone (52.4 expected)

Economic Events to Watch Today


 

 EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair remains on the bullish track, having hit the bullish mode in the previous two trading days, mainly becasue of upbeat macroeconomic data releases from Germany. As of writing, the currency pair is currently trading at 1.1193 and consolidates in the range between 1.1188 – 1.1198. The currency pair climbed 0.34% on Monday due to the EUR currency, which soared in the wake of upbeat Germany services PMI.

Looking forward, the EUR/USD currency pair will likely hit the five-month high above 1.1239 if the U.S. data shows deceleration or contraction in the coming non-manufacturing activity. However, the pullback from the recent high of 1.1239 has likely expired, and the rally from the November 29 low of 1.0981 has resumed.

Therefore, the currency pair may hit the level of 1.1239 and will likely break higher if the US ISM non-manufacturing data for December, which is scheduled to release at 15:00 GMT, release below the November figures of 53.9, signaling deceleration in the activity. A reading below 50 would imply contraction. By the way, the market is expecting a print of 54.5.

On the other hand, the big beat on expectations will confirm the Federal Reserves’ decision regarding pause in a rate cut, sending the greenback higher across the board.

Looking forward, the EUR/USD currency pair will likely take hints from the Eurozone retail sales data for November, which is scheduled to release at 10:00 GMT. At press time, EUR/USD is trading mostly unchanged on the day at 1.1193.

As of today, the Eurostat will release the inflation report and the Retail Sales figures. Traders expect the core Consumer Price Index to remain stable at 1.3% yearly in December. In the later part, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI from the U.S. will be looked upon for fresh direction.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.1186
  • S2 1.1189
  • S1 1.1191
  • Pivot Point 1.1193
  • R1 1.1194
  • R2 1.1196
  • R3 1.1199

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

On the 2 hour chart, the EUR/USD has tested the support level of 1.1130, which was being extended by the old triangle pattern. The U.S. Iran war sentiments are making EUR/USD weaker and are very likely to drive bullish bias until 1.1200 and 1.1245 level today. 

Speaking about the leading indicators, the RSI and MACD are holding in the buying zone, demonstrating the bullish trend in the EUR/USD pair today. Consider staying bullish until 1.1240 today.

 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair still flashing green and continued its recovery rally near 1.3172, mainly due to the high expectations that the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Brexit plan will likely be passed in voting on the day. As of writing, the currency pair is currently trading at 1.3171. The currency pair established notable gains yesterday in the wake of greenback weakness and unexpectedly better figures of the U.K. Serves PMI. 

Traders will keep their eyes on the British political news for fresh direction due to a lack of significant data and events on the calendar. On the other hand, the US-Middle East tension still on the fire without any major outcome, while the U.S. data, which is due today, will likely entertain the traders.

The United Kingdom Government will not argue on the Brexit deal anymore. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said they will negotiate a post-Brexit free trade deal with the United States and European Union.

The trader will keep their eyes on Brexit headlines due to a lack of significant data and events in the United Kingdom calendar. On the flip side, the lack of any result regarding the on-going US-Iran war increases the risk in the market, whereas the Sino-US trade headlines are again intensifying. Investors will carefully observe the Us data and political news for the fresh direction.

At the data front, the U.S. data calendar is worth watching, with the highlight of the non-manufacturing ISM survey for Dec. The consensus is for improvement from 53.9 in Nov to 54.5, with further interest in the employment sub-index for guidance on Friday’s non-farm payrolls data. 

    

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2914
  • S2 1.3025
  • S1 1.3097
  • Pivot Point 1.3137
  • R1 1.3209
  • R2 1.3248
  • R3 1.3359

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is also trading bullish around 1.3185 due to weakness in the U.S. dollar. The recent bullish engulfing candle is suggesting odds of bullish trend continuation in the GBP/USD pair. 

On the higher side, the GBP/USD may find resistance near 1.3185 level today while the support still stays at 1.3060. A bullish breakout of 1.3185 level can extend the bullish trend until 1.3285. Let’s stay bullish above 1.3125 today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair is looking flat and consolidating in the narrow range between the 108.32 and 108.44, mainly due to the lack of any key scheduled data. As of writing, the currency pair is currently trading at 108.41. However, the Japanese yen has been weak overnight. The USD/JPY currency pair hit the level of 108.45 from the 107.80 despite the United States and Iran threat.

The Europan nations also requested for peace and de-escalation of the current situation between the Us-Iran. Iran said that the United States need to worry regarding the retaliation, war is not on their agenda, and nor is it on the USA’s. In this regard, the U.S. stocks market continues to survive higher closes recovering from an initial risk-off plunge.

Eventually, the U.S. two-year Treasury yields rose from 1.51% to 1.56% the high, whereas the ten-year yields from 1.76% to 1.80%. Of course, the greenback is usually favored at times of war as well. 

It should be noted that the markets are pricing no change at the next Federal Reserve meeting on January 29 but a terminal rate of 1.26% (vs. Fed’s mid-rate at 1.63% currently).

On the other hand, the risk recovered after the comment came from the United States Defense Secretary Esper that the U.S. troops are not planning on pulling out of Iraq and that America would not target Iranian cultural sites if further hostilities break out.

At the USD front, the U.S. Dollar traded broadly bearish that hold the EUR/USD and GBP/USD currency pair bullish, whereas the Japanese Yen lost ground due to recovery found in the Asian equities and Treasury yields.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 107.11
  • S2 107.69
  • S1 108.03
  • Pivot Point 108.27
  • R1 108.61
  • R2 108.85
  • R3 109.43

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading in a bearish channel, which is keeping it support near 107.750 for now. At the same time, the resistance is likely to be found around 108.250. The RSI and MACD are staying above 50 and 0, suggesting a bullish trend in the USD/JPY.

In the larger view, USD/JPY is staying in the long term descending channel that began at 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Recovery from 104.45 also disappointed to support above 55 weeks EMA (presently at 109.02). The overall forecast prevails bearish and falls from 118.65 is in favor of extending through 104.45 low. Technically the pair has the potential to drop further until 107.800 level, and violation of this could continue selling until 107.600. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 6 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – U.S. Iran Shakes The Market! 

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index was little changed at 96.84 on Friday. Being regarded as a haven-asset, the Japanese yen strengthened against the greenback as geopolitical risks increased. USD/JPY dropped 0.5% to 108.09, the lowest level since mid-October.

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index was little changed at 96.84 on Friday. Being regarded as a haven-asset, the Japanese yen strengthened against the greenback as geopolitical risks increased. USD/JPY dropped 0.5% to 108.09, the lowest level since mid-October.

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index was little changed at 96.84 on Friday. Being regarded as a haven-asset, the Japanese yen strengthened against the greenback as geopolitical risks increased. USD/JPY dropped 0.5% to 108.09, the lowest level since mid-October.

The euro slipped 0.1% to $1.1160. Official data showed that German’s jobless rate was steady at 5.0% in December as expected, while CPI grew 1.5% on year (+1.4% expected). 

Besides, Iran vowed “severe revenge” on the U.S., while President Donald Trump threatened major retaliation on Iran if they do anything.

Economic Events to Watch Today

 EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair hit the bullish track mainly due to U.S. Treasury yields, which dropped in the wake of risk-off sentiment. Besides, the greenback is also struggling to gain the ground. The EUR/USD pair is consolidating at 1.1164, consolidating in the range between the 1.1156 – 1.1172. 

The on-going tension between the United States and Iran further intensified during the weekend after Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s statement that Iran would take revenge for the U.S. killing of Iranian general Soleimani. The country also announced that it would not follow any restrictions imposed by the 2015 nuclear deal.

On the other hand, the United States President Donald Trump also gave warning regarding retaliation if the Iran attacks on United States personnel or assets.

The yield on the United States ten-year Treasury note dropped to a one-month low of 1.757% in Asia and is currently seen at 1.777% – down ten basis points on the day.

At the data front, the German retail sale for November and final PMI indices for December are scheduled for release. However, these data will likely avoid in the wake of geopolitical development.



Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.1082
  • S2 1.1133
  • S1 1.1153
  • Pivot Point 1.1183
  • R1 1.1203
  • R2 1.1234
  • R3 1.1284

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

On the 2 hour chart, the EUR/USD has tested the support level of 1.1130, which was being extended by the old triangle pattern. The U.S. Iran war sentiments are making EUR/USD weaker and are very likely to drive bullish bias until 1.1200 and 1.1245 level today. 

Speaking about the leading indicators, the RSI and MACD are holding in the buying zone, demonstrating the bullish trend in the EUR/USD pair today. Consider staying bullish until 1.1240 today.

 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair shifted to bullish track from the two-day losing streak, mainly due to broad-based greenback weakness. As of writing, the GBP/USD is trading at 1.3160.

Just like the EUR/USD, the GBP/USD is also being influenced by the geopolitical tensions. On-going tension between the United States and Iran further intensified during the weekend after Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s statement that Iran would take revenge for the U.S. killing of Iranian general Soleimani. The country also announced that it will not follow any restrictions imposed by the 2015 nuclear deal. As a result, the U.S. dollar is getting weaker.

At the Brexit front, the United Kingdoms’ opposition Labour Party will decide the schedule for the election to choose the next leader on Monday. Moreover, it seems like the contender Keir Starmer already accepted the Brexit while Jess Phillips says if Brexit fails, she will likely to rejoin the European Union.

The United Kingdom Prime Minister will meet the Ursula von der Leyen, European Commission President on Wednesday, and will likely discuss the Brexit process ahead. However, the daily mail hints that the senior Tory leaders are supporting Boris Johnson to kick off parallel post-Brexit trade talks with the U.S. to put pressure on the E.U. 


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2932
  • S2 1.3047
  • S1 1.3094
  • Pivot Point 1.3163
  • R1 1.321
  • R2 1.3278
  • R3 1.3393

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is also trading bullish around 1.3185 due to weakness in the U.S. dollar. The recent bullish engulfing candle is suggesting odds of bullish trend continuation in the GBP/USD pair. 

On the higher side, the GBP/USD may find resistance near 1.3185 level today while the support still stays at 1.3060. A bullish breakout of 1.3185 level can extend the bullish trend until 1.3285. Let’s stay bullish above 1.3125 today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair found on the bearish track due to the risk-off sentiment in the market and a greenback’s weakness. The USD/JPY pair is trading at 108.00 and consolidates in the range between the 107.77 – 108.12.

On the front of main headlines, the on-going tension between the United States and Iran further intensified during the weekend after Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s statement that Iran would take revenge for the U.S. killing of Iranian general Soleimani. As a consequence, the markets have turned into risk-off sentiment, boosting demand for safe-haven assets like U.S. treasury, gold, and Japanese yen.

On the other hand, the United States President Donald Trump also gave warning regarding retaliation if Iran attacks the United States personnel or assets. Notably, we can expect further conflicting updates.

The United States’ two-year Treasury yields declined from 1.57% to 1.51%, the lowest since early Nov, ten-year yields from 1.88% to 1.79%. Markets are pricing a near-zero chance of rate cut at the next Fed meeting on January 29 but a terminal rate of 1.28%.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 107.24
  • S2 107.9
  • S1 108.23
  • Pivot Point 108.55
  • R1 108.89
  • R2 109.2
  • R3 109.86

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading in a bearish channel, which is keeping it support near 107.750 for now. At the same time, the resistance is likely to be found around 108.250. The RSI and MACD are staying above 50 and 0, suggesting a bullish trend in the USD/JPY.

Technically the pair has the potential to drop further until 107.800 level, and violation of this could extend selling until 107.600. All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Crude Oil Completes 23.6% Retracement – EIA Report Ahead! 

The WTI crude oil prices continue to increase, mainly due to intensifying tension in the Middle East. The U.S. Crude Oil WTI Futures jumped 2.9% to $62.98 yesterday.

The WTI crude oil prices continue to increase, mainly due to intensifying tension in the Middle East. The U.S. Crude Oil WTI Futures jumped 2.9% to $62.98 yesterday.

The WTI crude oil prices continue to increase, mainly due to intensifying tension in the Middle East. The U.S. Crude Oil WTI Futures jumped 2.9% to $62.98 yesterday.

Reports came from the Middle East that the airstrike killed key Iranian and Iraqi military, and consequently, the tension increased as well as the concerns of crude oil supplies diruption increased too, so that’s why oil markets are hugely supported today.

On the other hand, the WTI crude oil prices gained support from the announcement of the People’s Bank of China that it was cutting the amount of cash that banks must hold in reserve, releasing around 800 billion yuan ($115 billion) in funds to support the slowing Chinese economy.

Meanwhile, the Positive data that showed China’s production activities business confidence rose. President Trump is expected to take a break on being ‘tariff man’ until we get beyond the presidential election in November. Besides this, Trump said a phase one trade deal would be signed on Jan. 15 at the White House.

Meanwhile, the sentiment around the oil markets remains underpinned by the US-China trade deal optimism and declining US crude inventories, as reported by the American Petroleum Institute (API) earlier this week. The API data showed a draw of 7.8M barrels of oil for the week ending Dec. 27.

For now, the WTI barrel now awaits for the weekly US Crude Stocks data due to be published by the Energy Information Administration.


Daily Support and Resistance

Support Resistance
63.09       63.47
62.85       63.6
62.47       63.98
Pivot Point 63.23

The WTI crude oil is holding in the overbought zone at 63.50, having an immediate resistance around 64 and support at 62.75. The U.S. Oil has already completed 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 63.15. 

In case, the EIA reports another draw in U.S. Oil stocks; we may see further buying in crude oil prices until 65. Alternatively, the oil may extend the bearish trend until 62.75, which marks a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. All the best! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 3 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – FOMC Meeting Minutes Ahead! 

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index rebounded from its six-month low, gaining 0.4% on the day to 96.80. The investor will focus on the Federal Reserve’s latest monetary policy meeting minutes due later in the day. In Asian trading hours, safe-haven demand surged as the U.S. Defense Department confirmed that the U.S. military, “at the direction of the president,” killed Iranian general Qassem Soleimani in an airstrike in Iraq.

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index rebounded from its six-month low, gaining 0.4% on the day to 96.80. The investor will focus on the Federal Reserve’s latest monetary policy meeting minutes due later in the day. In Asian trading hours, safe-haven demand surged as the U.S. Defense Department confirmed that the U.S. military, “at the direction of the president,” killed Iranian general Qassem Soleimani in an airstrike in Iraq.

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index rebounded from its six-month low, gaining 0.4% on the day to 96.80. The investor will focus on the Federal Reserve’s latest monetary policy meeting minutes due later in the day. In Asian trading hours, safe-haven demand surged as the U.S. Defense Department confirmed that the U.S. military, “at the direction of the president,” killed Iranian general Qassem Soleimani in an airstrike in Iraq.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Economic Calendar by TradingView

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The Euro dropped 0.4% to $1.1171. Later today, German’s December jobless rate (steady at 5.0% expected) and CPI data (+1.4% on-year expected) will be reported. The contracted manufacturing PMI from Germany at the end of 2019 weighed on single currency Euro and dragged the pair EUR/USD below 1.120 on Thursday. 

On the other hand, the U.S. dollar rose today after a week on the release of U.S. initial jobless claims for December. The jobless claims for the previous week were in line with the expectations and supported the U.S. dollar.

The labor market of the United States showed signs of improvement, and American markets reacted positively to renewed hopes of growth in consumer spending. This could mean that the U.S. economy would grow with a moderate rate in 2020.

Meanwhile, the US-China trade deal developments had given some ease to the ongoing global economic slowdown when it was confirmed that the phase-one deal between the world’s two largest economies would be signed in mid –January. The strong U.S. dollar and weak Euro dragged the EUR/USD pair at the start of the New Year.


Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3: 1.1284
  • R2: 1.1234
  • R1: 1.1203
  • Pivot Point 1.1183
  • S1: 1.1153
  • S2: 1.1133
  • S3: 1.1082

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

Technically, the pair is trading at 1.1135, which is very closer to the bearish trendline support area of 1.1125. On the lower side, the EUR/USD is likely to find support around 1.1100 areas, which previously worked as a resistance for the EUR/USD. On the higher side, the EUR/USD may find resistance near 1.1150 and 1.1185 today.  

The RSI and MACD are holding in the bearish zone, suggesting chances of the bearish trend in the EUR/USD pair. Let’s stay bearish below 1.1180 and bullish above 1.1110 today. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The British pound sank 0.8% to $1.3147, halting a six-day rally. Research firm Markit will release U.K. Construction PMI for December (45.9 expected). However, Boris Johnson has pledged that U.K. would leave E.U. on January 31 and has announced to make his Brexit deal as a law in case no transaction was secured by the end of 2020 with E.U. in terms of trade.

PM Johnson insisted that 11 months period was enough to reach a trade deal with E.U., but critics have argued that the timetable was too tight and could lead to a no-deal Brexit. This has been weighing on British Pound, and hence, GBP/USD started to fell at the start of the New Year.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar gained traction in the market after the losses of 6 consecutive days on Thursday. 

The trader’s comeback after the holidays gave strength to the U.S. dollar when they re-entered in the market, and the volume of trades increased. Strong U.S. dollar added in the pressure of GBP/USD and caused the pair to lose its gains from the previous day.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3: 1.3393
  • R2: 1.3278
  • R1: 1.321
  • Pivot Point 1.3163
  • S1: 1.3094
  • S2: 1.3047
  • S3: 1.2932

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

Just like the EUR/USD, the GBP/USD pair has also completed a bearish retracement until 1.3045, which marks 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement area. Three black crows on the 2-hour chart are signifying bearish bias among traders. At the moment, the Cable is trading around 1.3050 level, and it may surge a bit above the 1.3045 area to target 1.3150 today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY closed at 108.566 after placing a high of 108.864 and a low of 108.210. Overall the trend for USD/JPY remained bearish that day.

At 5:30 GMT, the Annual Challenger Job Cuts form the United States came in as-25.2% in comparison to the previous -16.0%. At 6:30 GMT, the Unemployment Claims for the last week from the United States came in line with the expected 222K. AT 7:45 GMT, the Final Manufacturing PMI for December forms the United States was dropped to 52.4 from the expectations of 52.5 and weighed on the U.S. dollar.

The decline in the Manufacturing activity in the United States at the end of 2019 gave pressure to the U.S. dollar and dragged USD/JPY for 4th consecutive day on Thursday to the level of 108.2.

The US-China trade deal optimism gave strength to the U.S. dollar when it failed to grow the economy of China. In response to what, on Wednesday, the Chinese Central Bank announced that it was diminishing the quantity of cash that all banks need to hold as reserves around $15B. This move from China’s Central Bank was taken to improve the economic condition of the country.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3: 109.86
  • R2: 109.2
  • R1: 108.89
  • Pivot Point 108.55
  • S1: 108.23
  • S2: 107.9
  • S3: 107.24

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY was facing triple bottom support around108.400 level, which has now been violated after the USD/JPY completed 23.6% retracement at 108.700. The USD/JPY pair is trading in a bearish channel, which is likely to keep this pair bearish below 107.900. 

At the moment, the pair may find immediate support near 107.900, and violation of this could extend sell-off until 107.500. While resistance holds around 108.250 today, consider taking sell trades below 108.200 today.

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Gold Surge Amid Weaker Dollar – A Trade Plan on Thursday!  

Gold prices soared higher on Thursday, staying near to a three-month top as the precious metal gold profited from bent in the greenback. The dollar index, which gauges the worth of the US dollar against the basket of six major currencies, was down with 1.9% in the previous month, which was its lowest level since July. A weaker dollar means cheaper gold for investors and a rise in Yellow metal prices in financial markets.

Gold prices soared higher on Thursday, staying near to a three-month top as the precious metal gold profited from bent in the greenback. The dollar index, which gauges the worth of the US dollar against the basket of six major currencies, was down with 1.9% in the previous month, which was its lowest level since July. A weaker dollar means cheaper gold for investors and a rise in Yellow metal prices in financial markets.

Gold prices soared higher on Thursday, staying near to a three-month top as the precious metal gold profited from bent in the greenback. The dollar index, which gauges the worth of the US dollar against the basket of six major currencies, was down with 1.9% in the previous month, which was its lowest level since July. A weaker dollar means cheaper gold for investors and a rise in Yellow metal prices in financial markets.

Investors also stocked gold after the release of PMI from China, where factory activity came in line with the expectations and growth in production at a solid pace was seen. This increased the confidence of traders that global economic outlook has started to get better on the rising trade optimism after the announcement of the phase-one trade deal.

Another factor including in the upbeat movement of the yellow metal was the rising tensions between the US and the Middle East. When the US military carried out airstrikes in Iraq & Syria against Iran-backed Katib Hezbollah, the protestors rallied over the US embassy in Baghdad.

This increased the appeal for safe-haven assets like gold and continued to support gold prices at the starting trading day of New Year.
Investors will be eyeing on the release of Manufacturing PMI & Unemployment Claims data from the United States to further invest in gold.


Gold – XAU/USD – Daily Technical Levels

 

Support Resistance 

1524.5     1529.5

1522.59   1532.59

1517.59   1537.59

Pivot Point 1527.59

Gold may find next resistance around 1,533 levels as it’s a double top level, which may help sellers with a bearish opportunity. On the lower side, the support stays around 1,523. 

Gold’s RSI and MACD are holding above 0, suggesting odds of further buying in the gold. The inside up bar on the 120 minutes chart is also supporting the bullish bias. But sooner or later, the pair is going to enter an overbought zone, and we may need to look for a selling trade in it. Consider staying bullish above 1,523 and bearish below 1,533 today. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 2 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Trading Back to Normal! 

The U.S. dollar weakened against its major pairs on Tuesday. The ICE Dollar Index dropped 0.2% on the day to 96.53. U.S. President Donald Trump announced he would approve the phase one trade deal with China at the White House on January 15. Meanwhile, China’s central bank announced that it would lower the required reserve ratio for commercial banks by 50 basis points from January 6, releasing 800 billion yuan of liquidity into the financial system.

The U.S. dollar weakened against its major pairs on Tuesday. The ICE Dollar Index dropped 0.2% on the day to 96.53. U.S. President Donald Trump announced he would approve the phase one trade deal with China at the White House on January 15. Meanwhile, China’s central bank announced that it would lower the required reserve ratio for commercial banks by 50 basis points from January 6, releasing 800 billion yuan of liquidity into the financial system.

The U.S. dollar weakened against its major pairs on Tuesday. The ICE Dollar Index dropped 0.2% on the day to 96.53. U.S. President Donald Trump announced he would approve the phase one trade deal with China at the White House on January 15. Meanwhile, China’s central bank announced that it would lower the required reserve ratio for commercial banks by 50 basis points from January 6, releasing 800 billion yuan of liquidity into the financial system.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair hit the biggest-quarter high since the third quarter of 2017, possibly due to the optimism surrounding the United States and China trade deal. As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair increased by 2.8% in the 4th quarter and currently trading at 1.1213. 

The pair remains above critical Fibonacci level, i.e., 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of June-October declines, at 1.1210 now. Eventually, the currency pair has started 2020 with the bullish sentiment.

The continued optimism surrounding the US-China trade deal and signs of stability in the Eurozone economy support further gains in the EUR currency. 

On the flip side, the latest report from the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) regarding stimulating growth is also supportive news for the EUR currency as China is Eurozone’s biggest trading partner. 

People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced 50 basis points into the Reserve Ratio Requirement (RRR) cut, which is scheduled to deliver on January 5. Besides this, commercial bankers will hold a reserve of 12.5% of their assets from now, while 10.5% for smaller institutions. 


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.1196
  • S2 1.1205
  • S1 1.1209
  • Pivot Point 1.1213
  • R1 1.1218
  • R2 1.1222
  • R3 1.123

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

On the technical side, the long upper wick attached to Tuesday’s candle is a tell-tale sign of buyer exhaustion. Meanwhile, the 4-hour chart is reporting a bearish divergence of the relative strength index and the MACD histogram. 

 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair flashing red and dropped to 1.3210, mainly due to the fears of hard Brexit and thin trading conditions. As of writing, the currency pair is currently trading at 1.3221 and consolidates in the range between the 1.3202 – 1.3266. The Cable recently turned into bearish mode from the two-weeks high.

The market’s risk sentiment has recovered due to increasing optimism surrounding the US-China trade deal. However, the greenback recovers at the start of 2020. As a result, the U.S. ten-year treasury yields and stocks are moderately positive.

Whereas the holidays in Japan and New Zealand will keep the market’s sentiment light, all traders will keep their eyes on the trade/Brexit. December’s manufacturing PMI data from the U.S. and the U.K. will also be the key to watch.

If no significant change comes from the UK/US data, a downbeat figure against 47.4 prior and 47.6 expected will likely increase the chances of further rate cuts from the Bank of England (BOE).


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.3217
  • S2 1.3235
  • S1 1.3244
  • Pivot Point 1.3253
  • R1 1.3262
  • R2 1.3271
  • R3 1.3289

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On the technical side, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its December 12-23 fall, to around 1.3285, restricts the pair’s immediate upside, which in turn increases the chances of a pullback to 50% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels of 1.3210 and 1.3135 respectively.

The GBP/USD has broken the support mark of 1.3060, and currently, this level is expected to serve as a resistance for the GBP/USD. On the downside, the GBP/USD can exhibit further selling until the next target level of 1.2940.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair stuck between the range of 108.60 – 108.75 and took some gain due to risk-on sentiment in the wake of the Chinese central bank’s rate cut. Moreover, the optimism surrounding the United States and China trade deal relations also play their role. 

The tensions of the Middle East and holidays in Asia’s major parts continue to limit the market’s reaction because traders are cautious ahead of the key data from China.

It is worth to mention that China’s People’s Bank of China (PBOC) gave an announcement regarding 50 basis points into the Reserve Ratio Requirement (RRR) cut, which is scheduled to deliver on January 5. As well as, major banks will hold a reserve of 12.5% of their assets from now, while 10.5% for smaller institutions. 

Moreover, the announcement came from the PBOC that financial institutions should stop doing the 1-year lending rate as its reference rate while start with the Loan Prime Rate as the base rate beginning January 1.

At the Sino-US front, the United States President Donald Trump’s tweeted about the confirmation of phase-one singing in a ceremony on January 15. Meanwhile, the Republican leader also said that he would later go to China to discuss the phase-2 of the deal. Eventually, the White House Advisor, Peter Navarro, also said that more positive deals with China are coming this 2020.

On the other hand, the market holidays in Japan and New Zealand limit the latest news reaction because the trader waits for the China Caixin Manufacturing PMI data for December. Apart from this, there is another reason behind the lack of smiling welcome to 2020 is the political war between the United States and the Middle East after the Pentagon’s defensive strikes into Iraq and Syria.

At the data front, the data becomes even more critical due to the latest official figures confirms the continued manufacturing recovery. Forecasts suggest 51.7 values against 51.8. Looking forward, the traders will closely follow the U.S. Markit Manufacturing PMI for fresh direction.


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 108.48
  • S2 108.61
  • S1 108.69
  • Pivot Point 108.74
  • R1 108.81
  • R2 108.86
  • R3 108.99

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY was facing triple bottom support near 108.400 level, which has pushed the USD/JPY higher towards a 23.6% retracement level of 108.700. Above this, the pair has the potential to go for 38.2% Fibo levels, which marks 108.900 resistance. 

Below the 108.900 level, we can expect a slight bearish reversal in the USD/JPY currency pairs until 108.600.  

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 30 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Market Expects Correction!

The U.S. dollar weakened against its major pairs on Friday, with the ICE Dollar Index sliding 0.6% on the day to 96.92. A Federal Reserve study pointed out that retaliatory tariffs issued in 2018 and 2019 have led to job losses and an increase in costs for the U.S. manufacturing industry.

The U.S. dollar weakened against its major pairs on Friday, with the ICE Dollar Index sliding 0.6% on the day to 96.92. A Federal Reserve study pointed out that retaliatory tariffs issued in 2018 and 2019 have led to job losses and an increase in costs for the U.S. manufacturing industry.

The U.S. dollar weakened against its major pairs on Friday, with the ICE Dollar Index sliding 0.6% on the day to 96.92. A Federal Reserve study pointed out that retaliatory tariffs issued in 2018 and 2019 have led to job losses and an increase in costs for the U.S. manufacturing industry.

Later today, economists expect wholesale inventories to rise by 0.2% on month in November. The Market News International Chicago PMI is expected to climb to 48 in December from 46.3 in November.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The Euro jumped 0.7% to a two-week high of $1.1181, and the British pound advanced 0.6% to $1.3077. The Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) has pointed a moderate recovery in the growth of manufacturing production. On the other hand, the growth of services output was also somewhat modest.

According to the European Central Bank, the economic conditions have started to calm down even though the inflationary pressure remains generally muted. ECB said that inflation in Eurozone had stabilized as well though it has not softened in recent months but has shown signs of improvement slightly.

EUR/USD advanced to 10 days the highest level of 1.11882 and showed a sharp rise in its prices on Friday on the back of positive comments from ECB. The increase in prices of pair EUR/USD was also caused by the weakened U.S. Dollar that day.

The EUR/USD pair has sensitive nature towards the global growth rate, and with the emerging trade optimism around the globe from the world’s two largest economies, the trend of Euro started to follow the dynamics and moved in an upward direction on Friday.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.0974
  • S2 1.1031
  • S1 1.1053

Pivot Point 1.1089

  • R1 1.1111
  • R2 1.1146
  • R3   1.1203

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is trading with the bullish sentiment, testing the resistance level of around 1.1215 on the 4-hour chart. The bearish breakout of this level can trigger further selling until 1.1175. Conversely, the bullish bias can lead the EUR/USD to 1.1125. Let’s wait for selling trade below 1.1215 today.  

 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The British pound advanced 0.6% to $1.3077. There was no specific news related to Brexit, but GBP/USD pair before year-end raised its bars in the financial market on the back of the weakened U.S. dollar. Sterling increased 0.9% to $1.3117 on Friday, giving a bullish trend to the pair for 3rd consecutive day.

On the other hand, the New European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen said in an interview on Friday that Brexit transition may not be possible by the end of next year.

This statement from the Europe side was not surprising at all. E.U. has remained doubtful that a proper trade deal can be made, but UK PM Boris Johnson has continuously insisted that the time period of 11 months was enough to get to the finish line. However, the future of the U.K. & E.U.’s relationship after Brexit has no clarity until M.P.s return to work after holidays. 

U.K. Prime Minister has a majority in U.K. Parliament now and has a smooth track for Britain’s exit from the European Union, but E.U. has argued that period for setting trade deal was not enough, and it has raised concerns in the eyes of traders.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2757
  • S2 1.2901
  • S1 1.2955

Pivot Point 1.3044

  • R1 1.3099
  • R2 1.3188
  • R3 1.3331

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD has broken the support mark of 1.3060, and currently, this level is expected to serve as a resistance for the GBP/USD. On the downside, the GBP/USD can exhibit further selling until the next target level of 1.2940.

The RSI and MACD have now crossed over 50 and 0 zone, suggesting chances of a bearish reversal in the GBP/USD pair. Consider staying bullish above 1.2995 and bearish below 1.3100 today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY lost 0.2% to 109.42. Adding in the downfall of USD/JPY that day was the weakened U.S. dollar. U.S. dollar index fell almost 0.6% to the level of 96.951 on Friday.

The increased risk factor caused the weakness of the U.S. dollar in the market after the positive sentiment around the globe related to US-China trade relations came in. The trade optimism gave investors concerns about the risk involved with it, and hence, the U.S. dollar loses its demand against other currencies before year-end.

Sine-US trade war has been weighing on the global economy for 18 months, and any positive trade news has massive effects on foreign exchange because of their direct link with international trade. 

Ahead of holidays, USD/JPY dropped amid thin volume trades in the market and less demand for the U.S. dollar.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 108.56
  • S2 108.97
  • S1 109.17

Pivot Point 109.38

  • R1 109.58
  • R2 109.8
  • R3 110.21

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY has already completed the 50% Fibonacci retracement around 109.050 level. Now, this level is supporting the safe-haven pair along with an immediate resistance around 109.450. The RSI and MACD are suggesting chances of further selling in the USD/JPY pair. The couple may trade bearish below 109.450 to target 108.800. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 27 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Weaker Dollar In-Play

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index was little changed at 97.65 in thin holiday trading. The Euro edged up 0.1% to $1.1101, and the British pound gained 0.3% to $1.3001. The USD/JPY climbed 0.2% to 109.54.

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index was little changed at 97.65 in thin holiday trading. The Euro edged up 0.1% to $1.1101, and the British pound gained 0.3% to $1.3001. The USD/JPY climbed 0.2% to 109.54.

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index was little changed at 97.65 in thin holiday trading. The Euro edged up 0.1% to $1.1101, and the British pound gained 0.3% to $1.3001. The USD/JPY climbed 0.2% to 109.54.

The U.S. Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims fell to 222,000 in the week ended December 21 (220k expected) from 235,000 in the prior week. Today, the focus is going to be on the technical side of the market as the economic calendar remains muted. 

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

  

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD edged up 0.1% to $1.1101, and the British pound gained 0.3% to $1.3001. The U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he and Chinese President Xi Jinping would have a ceremony to sign the phase-one of the trade deal reached earlier this month. 

Mr. Lowe also added that the E.U. was failing, so they rammed the Euro in. He said that Euro was destined to fail and would have collapsed by now if it was not for massive quantitative easing by ECB.

On the other hand, the macroeconomic calendar remained empty on Thursday except for the U.S. jobless claims for the previous week. The U.S. unemployment claims during last week were recorded as 222K, which came in line with the expectations. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.0974
  • S2 1.1031
  • S1 1.1053

Pivot Point 1.1089

  • R1 1.1111
  • R2 1.1146
  • R3   1.1203

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is trading with the slightly bearish sentiment, and it’s very likely to test the next support area around 1.1110 on the 4-hour chart. The bearish breakout of this level can trigger further selling until 1.1085. Conversely, the bullish bias can lead the EUR/USD to 1.1125 and 1.1160 resistance levels. Let’s wait for the buy trade above 1.1110 today.  

 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD gained 0.3% to $1.3001. Boris Johnson has announced to make his Brexit deal as law, and in case of not reaching a trade deal with E.U. by the end of next year, then U.K. will leave E.U. without any agreement. However, it was highly unlikely because PM Johnson now holds the majority of the U.K. Parliament. 

The Parliament has already approved his deal for leaving E.U., and there are fewer chances that E.U. & U.K. will not reach a trade deal. Furthermore, PM Johnson has also said that he would make sure the departure of the U.K. from the European Union on January 31.

The British economy has been showing weaknesses for some time, and it is possible that Bank of England would start easing its monetary policy soon, which will drag the GBP/USD pair back from 1.30 level.

In the U.K., the British Banker’s Association will report November finance loans for housing (41.2 billion pounds expected).

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2757
  • S2 1.2901
  • S1 1.2955

Pivot Point 1.3044

  • R1 1.3099
  • R2 1.3188
  • R3 1.3331

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD has broken the support mark of 1.3060, and currently, this level is expected to serve as a resistance for the GBP/USD. On the downside, the GBP/USD can exhibit further selling until the next target level of 1.2940.

The RSI and MACD have now crossed over 50 and 0 zone, suggesting odds of a bullish reversal in the GBP/USD pair. Consider staying bullish above 1.2995 and bearish below 1.3100 today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY fell to 109.48. This morning, official data showed that Japan’s jobless rate dropped to 2.2% in November (2.4% expected and in October), while industrial production slid 0.9% on the month (-1.0% expected). Also, retail sales grew 4.5% (+5.0% expected).

The Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said on Thursday that the central bank would ease its monetary policy further without hesitation if the momentum toward its 2% inflation goal came under threat.

He also offered a brighter view of the global economic outlook and said that the Bank of Japan would not rush to change its current policy for now. After a week after Central bank kept its short term rates target at -0.1% and long-term at 0%, Kuroda said that the trend of Japan’s economy was at moderate growth.

However, the easing of global trade tensions has reduced the chances that the central bank would ease its monetary policy further. Reduction in uncertainties over the US-China trade war has played an essential role in facilitating global economic conditions.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 108.56
  • S2 108.97
  • S1 109.17

Pivot Point 109.38

  • R1 109.58
  • R2 109.8
  • R3 110.21

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY has already completed the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement around 109.200 level. Now, this level is supporting the safe-haven pair along with an immediate resistance around 109.350. 

The RSI and MACD are suggesting chances of further selling in the USD/JPY pair. The pair may trade bearish below 109.50 to target 109.200 and even below to 108.950 today. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 23 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – U.S. Durable Goods Ahead! 

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.3% to 97.68. The euro slipped 0.4% to $1.1079. The German GfK Consumer Confidence Index slipped to 9.6 for January (9.8 expected) from 9.7 in December.

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.3% to 97.68. The euro slipped 0.4% to $1.1079. The German GfK Consumer Confidence Index slipped to 9.6 for January (9.8 expected) from 9.7 in December.

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.3% to 97.68. The euro slipped 0.4% to $1.1079. The German GfK Consumer Confidence Index slipped to 9.6 for January (9.8 expected) from 9.7 in December.

The British pound was little changed at $1.3004. U.K. House of Commons voted 358 to 234 in support of Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal. 

Regarding U.S. economic data, third-quarter GDP growth was confirmed at an annualized rate of 2.1% on the quarter (as expected). Meanwhile, personal income rose 0.5% on month in November (+0.3% expected) and personal spending grew 0.4% (as expected). Later today, economists expect durable goods orders to rise 1.5% on month in November, while new home sales are anticipated to fall to 730,000 units.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair flashing red and dropped to 1.1080 and failed to extend Friday’s declines from 100- Day Moving Average. As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.1078 and consolidates in the range between the 1.1073 – 1.1083.

At the yearly front, the EUR/USD currency pair has lost a significant part of the gains during the January 2017 – February 2018 period and trading bearish while ending 2019. As of now, the pair is trading near the 1.1082, representing a 3.17% decline on a year-to-date basis. Notably, the pair dropped by 14.14% during 2018.

The greenback strength held ground against the EUR currency over intensifying trade tensions, which pushed Germany to the recession. Besides this, the European Central Bank further delivered the rate cut into the negative territory during September and declared a fresh bond-buying program.

The market is expecting that the EUR/USD currency pair may pick up the strong bullish buying in 2020. Whereas, the continued gains could remain difficult if the Eurozone economic data do not show any substantial progress.

    


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.0974
  • S2 1.1031
  • S1 1.1053

Pivot Point 1.1089

  • R1 1.1111
  • R2 1.1146
  • R3    1.1203

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is trading with the slightly bearish sentiment, and it’s very likely to test the next support area around 1.1110 on the 4-hour chart. The bearish breakout of this level can trigger further selling until 1.1085. Conversely, the bullish bias can lead the EUR/USD to 1.1125 and 1.1160 resistance levels. Let’s wait for the sell trade below 1.1110 today. 

 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair failed to extend its bearish weekly streak despite the United Kingdom’s political uncertainty. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3013 and consolidates in the bearish range between the 1.2990 – 1.3017. Moreover, the cables traders seem to avoid declining political optimism in the United Kingdom.

The British pound was little changed at $1.3004. U.K. House of Commons voted 358 to 234 for Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal.

The United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson succeeded in getting his European Union Withdrawal agreement bill passed from the new Parliament. Whereas, the House of Common has not passed the bill so far, but will have lesser stops considering the Tories majority.

The U.S. Commerce Department will release November durable goods orders (+1.5% on month expected) and new home sales (730,000 units expected). The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago will post November National Activity Index (-0.31 expected).


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2757
  • S2 1.2901
  • S1 1.2955

Pivot Point 1.3044

  • R1 1.3099
  • R2 1.3188
  • R3 1.3331

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD has broken the support mark of 1.3060, and currently, this level is expected to serve as a resistance for the GBP/USD. On the downside, the GBP/USD can exhibit further selling until the next target level of 1.2940.

The RSI and MACD have now crossed over 50 and 0 zone, suggesting odds of a bullish reversal in the GBP/USD pair. Consider staying bullish above 1.2995 and bearish below 1.3100 today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY was broadly flat at 109.44. The USD/JPY currency pair flashing green and picked up the bids to 109.50, mainly due to the United States President Donald Trump Weeknd’s positive comments. The pair also got support from the United States upbeat data, which turned the market risk-on. 

On the Weekend holidays, the United States President Donald Trump said: “We have just achieved progress on the trade deal, and we will be signing it very soon. The same motivates the risk-takers to start the holiday-shortened week on a positive side.

It is worth to mention that the Fridays strong United States GDP hit down the talks of the slowdown. Moreover, the reason behind the greenback strength was the upbeat data from the U.S., including Personal Consumption Expenditure and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

Looking forward, the market traders will take note of the November month U.S. Durable Goods Orders, up for publishing on Monday, to verify the fresh, positive data from the U.S. The report of Durable Goods Orders is anticipated to increase by 1.9% from downwardly revised 0.5% previous.

Besides this, the November month Chicago Fed National Activity Index, as well as New Home Sales, will also entertain traders before spreading the holiday mood. Whereas the activity gauge is anticipated to recover to -0.09 against -0.71 earlier, the housing data could soften to 0.728M against 0.733M prior.


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 108.56
  • S2 108.97
  • S1 109.17

Pivot Point 109.38

  • R1 109.58
  • R2 109.8
  • R3 110.21

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY has already completed the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement around 109.200 level. Now, this level is supporting the safe-haven pair along with an immediate resistance around 109.350. 

The RSI and MACD are suggesting chances of further selling in the USD/JPY pair. The pair may trade bearish below 109.50 to target 109.200 and even below to 108.950 today. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Dramatic Dip in Crude Oil – Bullish Channel Breakout 

During the European session, the WTI crude oil prices were unchanged near the 3-months highs due to optimism surrounding the United States and China trade deal that has left an impact on the oil demand as well as the global economic growth outlook.

During the European session, the WTI crude oil prices were unchanged near the 3-months highs due to optimism surrounding the United States and China trade deal that has left an impact on the oil demand as well as the global economic growth outlook.

During the European session, the WTI crude oil prices were unchanged near the 3-months highs due to optimism surrounding the United States and China trade deal that has left an impact on the oil demand as well as the global economic growth outlook.

The WTI crude oil has dropped dramatically from 61.01 to 60.35 level upon the bearish breakout of the bullish channel and bearish fundamentals. 

It should be noted that the improvement in an 18-months trade war between the United States and China, the world’s two biggest oil consumers, had raised expectations for higher energy demand next year.

China on Thursday declared a list of import tariff exemptions for six oil and chemical products from the United States, days after the world’s two largest economies announced an incomplete trade deal. 

As a result, U.S. Oil is facing intense bearish pressure. What’s next? The technical side of the market is likely to extend support around 60.30, and below this, the black crack can drop until 59.65 support zone. 


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 59.65
  • S2 60.35
  • S1 60.71

Pivot Point 61.04

  • R1 61.4
  • R2 61.74
  • R3 62.44

The RSI and MACD have entered the selling zone, and demonstrate strong bearish bias among traders. As we can also see, the upward channel which supported the oil around 61 has already been violated, and now 61 is likely to work as resistance for crude oil. Consider trading bearish below 60.74 today and buying above 59.65. All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 20 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – GDP Figures in Highlights! 

On the forex front, the British pound slid 0.5% to a two-week low of $1.3017, posting a three-day decline. Official data showed that U.K. retail sales dropped 0.6% on month in November (+0.2% estimated), falling for a fourth straight month–the worst run since 1996. On the other hand, the Bank of England held its benchmark rate at 0.75% unchanged as expected.

On the forex front, the British pound slid 0.5% to a two-week low of $1.3017, posting a three-day decline. Official data showed that U.K. retail sales dropped 0.6% on month in November (+0.2% estimated), falling for a fourth straight month–the worst run since 1996. On the other hand, the Bank of England held its benchmark rate at 0.75% unchanged as expected.

On the forex front, the British pound slid 0.5% to a two-week low of $1.3017, posting a three-day decline. Official data showed that U.K. retail sales dropped 0.6% on month in November (+0.2% estimated), falling for a fourth straight month–the worst run since 1996. On the other hand, the Bank of England held its benchmark rate at 0.75% unchanged as expected.

The European Commission will release the eurozone’s December Consumer Confidence Index (-7.0 expected). In Germany, the GfK Consumer Confidence Index for January will be published (9.8 expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair exhibit bearish bias to hit the low level of 1.1117 from the Tuesday high of 1.1175 ahead of United States data release. At the moment, the EUR/USD pair is currently trading at 1.1116 and consolidates in the range between the 1.1114 – 1.1126. The pair has dropped but still staying inside the one-week-old symmetrical triangle.

The EUR/USD currency pair’s weekly candle now has a long upper shadow, which is a significant clue of bulls losing steam above the resistance of the trendline dropping from September 2018 and June 2019 highs.

The currency pairs trendline resistance is currently seen at 1.1148. The pair had increased to a high of 1.1175 previously but dropped again below 1.1148 on the next day. As a result, the consecutive failure of buyers to beat the convincing break above the trendlines has supported the negative risks, which may increase if the United States data ignore past expectations. The data is scheduled to release today.

If the personal spending and Core PCE release unexpectedly come out better, they will validate the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to pause the rate cuts and push the greenback higher.

On the other hand, a big miss may fuel the greenback sell-off. Looking forward, the EUR/USD currency pair will turn bullish mainly if the pair beats the weekly close above the trendline hurdle at 1.1148.

    

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.1108
  • S2 1.1112
  • S1 1.1114

Pivot Point 1.1116

  • R1 1.1118
  • R2 1.112
  • R3 1.1124

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

On Friday, the EUR/USD continues to trade mostly sideways, while investors await the U.S. GDP figures. The EUR/USD is trading with slightly bearish sentiment, and it’s very likely to test the next support area around 1.1110 on the 4-hour chart. 

The bearish breakout of this level can trigger further selling until 1.1085. Conversely, the bullish bias can lead the EUR/USD to 1.1125 and 1.1160 resistance levels. Let’s wait for the sell trade below 1.1110 today. 

 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair hit the bullish track and recovered to 1.3020, mainly due to optimism surrounding the Brexit due to the voting on the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s WAB. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3022. The GBP/USD traders seem confident ahead of the House of Commons voting on the UK PM’s Brexit bill.

The European Union Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB) will allow the United Kingdom to leave the European Union on January 31 while it’s also arranging the stage for no transition period beyond December 2020. The bill will also allow more British judges to leave from the previous rulings of the European Union’s top court.

The U.K. Office for National Statistics will release final readings of third-quarter GDP (+1.0% on-year expected), current account (15.5 billion pounds deficit expected), and November public sector net borrowing excluding banking groups (6.1 billion pounds expected).

The voting result will be released at 15:00 GMT on Friday. Traders will likely watch the final figures of the United Kingdoms’ 3rd-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for new directions. According to the forecast, there will no change in the GDP figures on QoQ and YoY basis that are 0.3% and 1.0%, respectively.

Daily Support and Resistance

 

  • S3 1.2757
  • S2 1.29
  • S1 1.2955

Pivot Point 1.3044

  • R1 1.3098
  • R2 1.3188
  • R3 1.3331

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD has broken the support mark of 1.3060, and currently, this level is expected to serve as a resistance for the GBP/USD. On the downside, the GBP/USD can exhibit further selling until the next target level of 1.2940.

The RSI and MACD have now crossed over 50 and 0 zone, suggesting odds of a bullish reversal in the GBP/USD pair. Consider staying bullish above 1.2995 and bearish below 1.3100 today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY closed at 109.366 after placing a high of 109.685 and a low of 109.180. Overall the trend for USD/JPY on Thursday remained bearish after the Bank of Japan kept its rates unchanged on Thursday at minus -0.1% the pair USD/JPY dipped in the financial market. 

The BOJ voted 7 to 2 to keep its short-term interest rates at -0.1% and the long-term rates at 0%. According to the Central Bank of Japan, the economy was likely to continue on a moderate expanding trend. The impact of the global economic slowdown on domestic demand was expected to be limited in the future. Although the fears of global economic slowdown still prevail in the market.

Recently, the government of Japan implemented a $122B fiscal stimulus package to aid economic growth. Japanese debt levels highly criticized this idea, but it was a wise decision as the government implemented a consumer tax hike after that.

The global economic outlook was raised after the phase-one deal between the U.S. & China and the victory of Johnson in Britain elections. Bank of Japan revised its GDP forecast for next year to 1.4% from the previous prediction of 1.2%.

The positive gestures and statements in Bank of Japan’s monetary policy statement on Thursday weighed on USD/JPY prices.

Adding in the downward trend of pair USD/JPY was the U.S. economic data that day. At 18:30 GMT, the Current Account Balance for the 3rd Quarter of the U.S. declined to -124B from -122B expectations. The Unemployment claims from last week surged to 234K from expected 225K. The C.B. Leading Index also fell to 0.0%, and the Existing Home Sales dropped to 5.35M from 5.44M of expectations.

On the other hand, the U.S. House of Representatives voted in favor of passing the impeachment of Donald Trump and made him third U.S. president to be impeached. However, the U.S. Senate of Republicans is still to vote on this, and it is expected that they will not vote against Trump.

Daily Support and Resistance    

  • S3 108.56
  • S2 108.97
  • S1 109.17

Pivot Point 109.38

  • R1 109.58
  • R2 109.79
  • R3 110.21

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY has already completed the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement around 109.200 level. Now, this level is supporting the safe-haven pair along with an immediate resistance around 109.350. 

The RSI and MACD are suggesting chances of further selling in the USD/JPY pair. The pair may trade bearish below 109.50 to target 109.200 and even below to 108.950 today. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Gold’s Ascending Triangle Intact – Investor Awaits Fundamentals! 

On Thursday, the precious metal gold prices inched up to trade around 1,476 after the U.S. House of Representatives chose to challenge President Donald Trump on articles of misuse of authority and obstruction of Congress.    

On Thursday, the precious metal gold prices inched up to trade around 1,476 after the U.S. House of Representatives chose to challenge President Donald Trump on articles of misuse of authority and obstruction of Congress.    

On Thursday, the precious metal gold prices inched up to trade around 1,476 after the U.S. House of Representatives chose to challenge President Donald Trump on articles of misuse of authority and obstruction of Congress.    

Impeachment is a two-way process where the removal of a sitting president is decided. In the first stage, the majority of the Democrats will be needed to support the move. If that passes, then a trial would be held in U.S. Senate, which will be dominated by Republicans. 

For that, 2-3rd would have to vote in favor, which is highly unlikely to happen. But if it did happen, Donald Trump would be forced from the White House.

The U.S. Dollar Index advanced to a fresh weekly high near 97.50, which also helped gold prices to gain a slightly bullish trend. Lack of any macroeconomic data left the movement of pair XAU/USD dependant on the technical changes and political news. 

On Friday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish the Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) along with the Personal Consumer Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. 

Gold – XAU/USD – Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance 

1,460.28   1,483.1

1,450.74   1,496.37

1,427.92   1,519.18

Pivot Point 1,473.55

Technically, the yellow metal gold has extended an ascending triangle pattern, which is holding the XAU/USD sustained above 1,470 level. A bearish violation of this level of 1,470 can drive additional selling until 1,462. However, no vital drift isn’t anticipated until the release of UoM Consumer Sentiment on Friday. On the upper side, 1,480 is likely to be the resistance for gold. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 19 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Brace for BOE Interest Rate

The U.S. Dollar Index was up for a second day, rising 0.2% to 97.40. The British pound lost 0.3% to $1.3085. Official data showed that U.K. core CPI grew 1.7% on year in November (as expected). On the other hand, the Bank of England is expected to keep its benchmark rate at 0.75% unchanged later today. Also, November retail sales will be reported (+0.2% on month estimated).

The U.S. Dollar Index was up for a second day, rising 0.2% to 97.40. The British pound lost 0.3% to $1.3085. Official data showed that U.K. core CPI grew 1.7% on year in November (as expected). On the other hand, the Bank of England is expected to keep its benchmark rate at 0.75% unchanged later today. Also, November retail sales will be reported (+0.2% on month estimated).

The U.S. Dollar Index was up for a second day, rising 0.2% to 97.40. The British pound lost 0.3% to $1.3085. Official data showed that U.K. core CPI grew 1.7% on year in November (as expected). On the other hand, the Bank of England is expected to keep its benchmark rate at 0.75% unchanged later today. Also, November retail sales will be reported (+0.2% on month estimated).

The euro dropped 0.3% to $1.1115. The German Ifo Business Climate Index climbed to 96.3 in December (95.5 expected) from 95.1 in November.

Later today, the U.S. Labor Department will report initial jobless claims for the week ending December 14 (225,000 expected, 252,000 in the prior week). Existing home sales are expected to slightly decrease to an annualized rate of 5.44 million units in November (5.46 million units in October).

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair flashing green and hit the bullish track from the average support and picked up some buying mainly due to greenback weakness. Although, the currency pair did not beat the 200-day Moving Average so far. As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.1126 and representing 0.14% gains. By the way, the pair is now consolidating in the range between the 1.1113 – 1.1133.

President Donald Trump was accused by the U.S. House of Representatives on Wednesday night for the abuse of power. The House also approved a 2nd-charge that Trump obstructed a Congress investigation. The greenback came under pressure after the impeachment news hit the wires. 

It should be noted that the declines in the greenback were modest and will likely be reversed during Europe as the Senate, which is controlled by Trump’s Republican Party, possibly absolve to him of all charges. Moreover, the chances of Donald Trump vacating office are low. Looking forward, the Senate trial will likely start in January. 

With the German economy showing indications of bottoming out and heading into New Year with more confidence, there seem fewer chances that EUR traders will pick up the selling trend.

From a technical perspective, the currency pair is currently trading in no man’s land. A close above the 200-day average at 1.1151 is needed to revive the short-term bullish setup. On the flip side, a break below Wednesday’s low of 1.1115 would imply a short-term bearish reversal. 


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.1117
  • S2 1.1121
  • S1 1.1124

Pivot Point 1.1126

  • R1 1.1128
  • R2 1.113
  • R3 1.1134

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

Technically, the EUR/USD traded mostly sideways ahead of CPI, and German Business Climate figures. The EUR/USD is trading with a slightly bearish bias, and it’s very likely to test the bullish trendline on the 4-hour chart. The bullish trendline is expected to support the EUR/USD above 1.1125. Continuation of a bullish bias over 1.1125 can hold EUR/USD bullish unto 1.1160 and 1.1185. The EUR/USD’s next support lingers around 1.1095 today,

 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair still found under pressure and hit the weekly lows despite the greenback weakness and waiting for fresh clues from the United Kingdom data/events which are scheduled to be released. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3081 and consolidates in the range between 1.3072 – 1.3091.

At the USD front, the greenback showed a broad-based weakness mainly due to the House Representatives, which voted to impeach President Trump. The House also approved a 2nd-charge that Trump obstructed a Congress investigation. Moreover, the ball will meet the Senate someday during early January for the opposition Democrats to make Donald Trump as the 3rd in the history to get impeached.

The GBP currency traders will keep their eyes on the November month Retail Sales ahead of the monetary policy meeting of the Bank of England and the British Queens speech setting out the Conservative government’s agenda for the coming year. The trader will also carefully observe the U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, Existing Home Sales, and Weekly Jobless Claims.

For now, BOE is likely to keep the rate unchanged at 0.75%. However, the markets are pricing a 65% probability of a rate cut by May 2020. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.295
  • S2 1.3019
  • S1 1.3049

Pivot Point 1.3089

  • R1 1.3118
  • R2 1.3159
  • R3 1.3229

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading with a slightly bullish bias now above 1.3178 as the pair has violated the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.3240. Below the same mark, the 50 periods EMA is likely to provide resistance to the GBP/USD. 

The RSI and MACD are holding in the oversold zone, suggesting odds of a bullish reversal upon completion above the double bottom support level of 1.3095. Today, consider taking buying trades above 1.3100 and bearish trades below 1.3178. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair dropped from the weekly high after the United States House of Representatives voted to impeach President Donald Trump. As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair s currently trading at 109.60 even after the status quo BOJ and remains stuck in the same range between the 109.56 – 109.59.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintained the short-term interest rate at -0.1 and kept the 10-year yield target unchanged around 0%, as expected. The risk-off sentiment is expected to remain ahead. The United States’ ten-year treasury yields fell to 1.90%, whereas the S&P 500 Futures also decreases.

Looking forward, traders will keep their eyes on the monetary policy decision by the Bank of Japan (BOJ). Ahead of the releases, analysts at T.D. Securities said, “The Bank Of Japan will continue its last meeting of the year. This should move with little fanfare because the BOJ has made the necessary changes in October.

    


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 109.07
  • S2 109.3
  • S1 109.43

Pivot Point 109.53

  • R1 109.66
  • R2 109.76
  • R3 109.99

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

From the technical perspective, a breakout, if confirmed, would imply a resumption of the rally from the December low of 108.46 and may yield a rally to 110.00. On the flip side, range breakdown will likely allow a re-test of support at 109.20-109.00. 

On the technical side, the USD/JPY consolidates below 109.700 resistance level.

The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level is supporting the USD/JPY pair around 109.200 level. While the RSI and MACD are suggesting chances of further selling in the USD/JPY pair. The pair may trade bearish below 109.53 to target 109.200 today. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

WTI Crude Oil Slipped Amid Rising Crude Inventories – Quick Trade Plan! 

The WTI crude oil prices are flashing red and traded lower after the American Petroleum Institute reported a large build of weekly crude inventories. The WTI crude oil inventories increased by 4.7 million barrels in its snapshot of stockpiles for the week ended December 13, the API said.

The WTI crude oil prices are flashing red and traded lower after the American Petroleum Institute reported a large build of weekly crude inventories. The WTI crude oil inventories increased by 4.7 million barrels in its snapshot of stockpiles for the week ended December 13, the API said.

The WTI crude oil prices are flashing red and traded lower after the American Petroleum Institute reported a large build of weekly crude inventories. The WTI crude oil inventories increased by 4.7 million barrels in its snapshot of stockpiles for the week ended December 13, the API said.

The U.S. government data is anticipated to point a drop of 1.3 million barrels while the Energy Information Administration(EIA) publishes its weekly figures.

In the previous week, the EIA announced the advance of a crude stock of 822K barrels versus a market forecast for a dip of 2.76 million barrels.

The WTI crude oil prices got some benefit earlier in the day after data showed U.S. November manufacturing output and housing figures both outperformed expectations.

It should be noted that the declines in crude oil prices have been limited due to Sino-US trade optimism. A phase-one trade deal was agreed between the United States and China last week, decreasing some fears over the economic impact of a continued dispute between the two biggest crude oil importers. 

Technically, the WTI is trading in a bullish channel, which is supporting it around 60.20, while the same bullish channel is likely to resistance around 62.22. 

On the way to upside, the WTI crude oil may find a horizontal resistance level around 61 while the RSI and MACD are suggesting bearish bias. Lately, the crude oil has formed a series of neutral candles which exhibits indecision among traders.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 58.49
  • S2 59.48
  • S1 59.97

Pivot Point 60.47

  • R1 60.96
  • R2 61.46
  • R3 62.45

Consider taking buying trade above 60.20 to target 60.50, and above this, the WTI may soar to test 61.10. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 18 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eyes On UK CPI!

On the forex front, the British pound plunged 1.6% to $1.3122, wiping out its gains since the election day last Thursday. Media reported that U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson might amend the withdrawal agreement bill to block any further extension of Brexit. Hence the prospect of a no-deal Brexit is still on the table.

On the forex front, the British pound plunged 1.6% to $1.3122, wiping out its gains since the election day last Thursday. Media reported that U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson might amend the withdrawal agreement bill to block any further extension of Brexit. Hence the prospect of a no-deal Brexit is still on the table.

On the forex front, the British pound plunged 1.6% to $1.3122, wiping out its gains since the election day last Thursday. Media reported that U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson might amend the withdrawal agreement bill to block any further extension of Brexit. Hence the prospect of a no-deal Brexit is still on the table.

Also, the U.K.’s official data showed that the jobless rate for the three months to October was steady at 3.8% (3.9% expected). Later today, investors will focus on U.K. consumer inflation data for November (CPI +1.4% on year expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair remains in the red territory and hits the strong bearish track after got repeated rejection to cross the 200-day Moving Average resistance. As of writing, the currency pair is currently trading at 1.1133, representing a 0.14% declines on the day and consolidates in the range between 1.1131 – 1.1155.

The EUR/USD pair hit the high level of 1.1155 but failed to beat the 200-day Moving Average resistance. Looking forward, the currency pair will likely pick up further selling trend if the German data disappoints expectations, whereas if the German data beats expectations figures, the currency pair can beat the 200-day Moving average.

It should also be noted that the buyers failed to secure a daily close above the long-term average for the 4th-straight day on Tuesday because the range between the United States and German ten-year bond yields increased nearly 5-basis points to 218 basis points.

Looking ahead, the German IFO survey, scheduled to release at 09:00 GMT, is expected to show the expectations index increased to 93.0 in December from 92.1, according to the latest survey of analysts. 

As we recently mentioned that an above-forecast figure is needed to confirm last week’s ZEW survey, which showed the German economy has bottomed out and draws bids for the EUR currency. Moreover, an upbeat on expectations will likely yield a move above the 200-day MA at 1.1151.

The European Central Bank’s President, Lagarde, is scheduled to speak at 08:30 GMT. Lagarde is unlikely to sound dovish and will likely repeat the need for fiscal stimulus. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.1062
  • S2 1.1107
  • S1 1.113

Pivot Point 1.1153

  • R1 1.1176
  • R2 1.1198
  • R3 1.1243

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

Technically, the EUR/USD traded mostly sideways ahead of CPI, and German Business Climate figures. The EUR/USD is trading with a slightly bearish bias, and it’s very likely to test the bullish trendline on the 4-hour chart. The bullish trendline is likely to support the EUR/USD above 1.1125. Continuation of a bullish bias over 1.1125 can hold EUR/USD bullish unto 1.1160 and 1.1185. The EUR/USD’s next support lingers around 1.1095 today,

 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair flashing red and hit the four-day lows of 1.309 down -0.30% on the day. The currency pair continues its bearish streak and still under pressure. That is mainly due to hard Brexit fears intensified after UK PM Johnson’s confirmed to the parliament that his office planned to ensure by law that the U.K.’s post-Brexit departure period will end in Dec 2020. 

As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading 1.3102 and consolidates in the range between the 1.3072 – 1.3135.

It should be noted that the departure uncertainty regarding Brexit was always considered as the risk faced by the GBP currency, but it was priced in sooner than anticipated. As a result, the soft Brexit premium is currently being priced out of GBP, and buyers have been sent back from the buying track.

At the greenback front, the U.S. Dollar (USD) benefited from the upbeat industrial production and housing market numbers along with the welcome comments from the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. The greenback also got the support of trade-related positive statements from the Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer.

Looking forward, the GBP buyers will closely observe the November month inflation data, whereas the Fed speak will likely offer additional hints. In this regard, T.D. Securities said, “We look for CPI to edge a touch lower to 1.4% y/y in November (market 1.5%). Underlying this, we expect core CPI to hold unchanged at 1.7% y/y (market 1.6%) for the 3rd-month in a row. 


Daily Support and Resistance 

  • S3 1.2774
  • S2 1.2976
  • S1 1.3054

Pivot Point 1.3178

  • R1 1.3256
  • R2 1.338
  • R3 1.3581

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading bearish below 1.3178 as the pair has violated the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.3240. Below the same mark, the 50 periods EMA is likely to provide resistance to the GBP/USD. 

The RSI and MACD are holding in the oversold zone, suggesting odds of a bullish reversal upon completion above the double bottom support level of 1.3095. Today, consider taking buying trades above 1.3100 and bearish trades below 1.3178. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY closed at 109.472 after placing a high of 109.632 and a low of 109.441. Overall the trend for USD/JPY pair remained bearish that day.

On the data side, at 2:00 GMT, the U.S. Department of the Treasury published the TIC Long-Term Purchases for October, and it showed a decline to 32.5B from expected 52.2B and weighed on U.S. dollar.

The Building Permits from the United States showed growth in November when released at 18:30 GMT. In the previous month, it was expected that 1.41M building permits would be issued. Still, according to the reports, the number of actual building permits in November exceeded the expectations and came in as 1.48M to support the U.S. dollar.

The number of U.S. residential buildings that began construction during November also exceeded the expectations and supported the U.S. dollar on Tuesday. It was expected that 1.34M house buildings would start its construction, but in actual 1.37M, housing starts.

At 19:15 GMT, the Capacity Utilization Rate from Federal Reserve was published, which showed that 77.3% of available resources were being utilized during November. The expected figure was almost the same 77.4% and did not affect the U.S. dollar. However, Industrial Production from the United States for November also increased to 1.1% from expected 0.8% and supported the U.S. dollar.

At 20:00 GMT, the JOLTS Job Openings for October showed growth to 7.27M from the expected 7.01M and supported the U.S. dollar. And at 20:01 GMT, the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism for the month of December was surged to 57.0 from forecasted 54.2 and supported U.S. dollar on Tuesday.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 109.14
  • S2 109.34
  • S1 109.42

Pivot Point 109.53

  • R1 109.62
  • R2 109.72
  • R3 109.92

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On the technical side, the USD/JPY consolidates below 109.700 resistance level. The same level marks a triple top pattern has the USD/JPY faced a hard time violating it back on Dec 1, 13, and 16. 

The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level is supporting the USD/JPY pair around 109.200 level. While the RSI and MACD are suggesting chances of further selling in the USD/JPY pair. The pair may trade bearish below 109.53 to target 109.200 today. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX. Analysis, December 17 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eyes on UK Labor Market Figures! 

On Tuesday, the market trades with a risk-off sentiment as investors are still waiting for clarity about Brexit and Trade deal between the U.S. and China. The U.S. dollar was steady against other major currencies, with the ICE Dollar Index closing flat on the day at 97.15.

On Tuesday, the market trades with a risk-off sentiment as investors are still waiting for clarity about Brexit and Trade deal between the U.S. and China. The U.S. dollar was steady against other major currencies, with the ICE Dollar Index closing flat on the day at 97.15.

On Tuesday, the market trades with a risk-off sentiment as investors are still waiting for clarity about Brexit and Trade deal between the U.S. and China. The U.S. dollar was steady against other major currencies, with the ICE Dollar Index closing flat on the day at 97.15.

China’s official data showed that industrial production rose 6.2% on year in November (+5.0% expected), and retail sales grew 8.0% (+7.6% expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

Economic Calendar by TradingView

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

Today in the early Asian session, the EUR/USD currency pair flashing green and trading on the bullish track but failed to cross the 200-day moving average despite the fresh trade truce between the United States and China. The EUR/USD is presently trading at 1.1147, having faced rejection at the 200-day Moving Average at 1.1152. 

However, the EUR currency has repeatedly failed to close above the 200-day MA. For example, the Euro currency picked up a strong buying on Friday and climbed to a high of 1.12 only to end the day with moderate losses at 1.1118. 

Regarding U.S. economic data, the Empire Manufacturing Index posted 3.5 for December (below the 4.0 expected, up from 2.9 in November). The Markit U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (preliminary reading) declined slightly to 52.5 in December (below 52.6 expected) from 52.6 in November.

The monthly United States Housing Starts and Building Permits are scheduled for release at 13:30 GMT on Tuesday. The Eurozone Trade Balance (Oct), scheduled for release at 10:00 GMT, is unlikely to move markets. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.1079
  • S2 1.1111
  • S1 1.1127

Pivot Point 1.1143

  • R1 1.1159
  • R2 1.1175
  • R3 1.1207

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

Just like the rest of the forex pairs, the EUR/USD hasn’t made much progress on Monday despite a mixture of PMI data. The EUR/USD is trading with a slightly bullish above the bullish trendline, which is supporting the EUR/USD above 1.1125. Extension of a bullish bias above 1.1125 can keep EUR/USD optimistic until 1.1160 and 1.1185. The EUR/USD’s next support prevails around 1.1095 today,

 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair flashing red and representing more than 60 pips decline to 1.3265, having hit the low of 1.3236 during the Asian trading hours. The bearish bias came mainly due to hard Brexit fears. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3295 and consolidates in the range between the 1.3236 – 1.3339. Looking ahead, the GBP/USD pair could come under pressure due to fresh Brexit concerns.

It should be noted that the victory of conservatives will help the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson to pass the Bill to rule out European Union transition beyond 2020. The Departure Agreement Bill (WAB) is widely expected to be put for a 2nd reading in the House of Commons on this Friday.

Whereas, the Conservatives leader Boris Jonhson will not hesitate to repeat his promise regarding leave the region with deal or without a deal before 2020 ends. Despite that, the United Kingdom Prime Minster has repeatedly promoted the idea of the Canda-style free trade agreement, and UK PM will likely push for the same after the Bill gets the Parliaments’ approval.

Comments came from Robert Peterson that the PM Boris Johnson is committed to passing the Tory manifesto commitment to end the transition in just over a year from now. 

Looking forward, investors will seek more hints of the recent declines in the GBP from the political headlines. However, the traders will keep their eyes on the releases of the UK employment figures. A busy week of the UK calendar is worth watching ahead of the Bank of England policy meeting on Thursday. The consensus is for the unemployment rate to tick up to 3.9%, whereas wages growth eases a little to 3.4% YoY,” says Westpac ahead of the data release.

Daily Support and Resistance 

  • R3: 1.3722
  • R2: 1.3548
  • R1: 1.3441

Pivot Point 1.3374

  • S1: 1.3267
  • S2: 1.32
  • S3: 1.3025

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading bearish below 1.3362 as the pair seems to go for a retracement until 1.3240, which marks a 61.8% Fibonacci level. At the same mark, the 50 periods EMA is likely to support the GBP/USD. 

The RSI and MACD are holding in the buying zone, suggesting odds of a bullish reversal upon completion of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Today, consider taking buying trades above 1.3190 and bearish trades below 1.3274. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair is struggling to extend its recovery rally because the markets want more clarity about the fresh optimism surrounding the phase-one trade deal and Brexit concerns. As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 109.56 and consolidates in the range between 109.50 – 109.63. 

Even after the fresh trade truce of the Sino-US Phase-one deal, the United States and China trade relationships are still being termed as noisy ceasefire by the South China morning post.

On the other hand, ITV’s Robert Peterson thinks the risk of hard Brexit because the United Kingdom’s (UK) Prime Minister (PM) will soon forward the Bill that supports no transition delay beyond 2020.

Moreover, the risk tone gets heavier because the United States’ ten-year treasury yields decline to 1.87%, whereas the S&P 500 Futures losses 0.14% to 3,193 by the press time.

Apart from the trade/Brexit headlines, monetary policy meetings by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and headline inflation will also entertain momentum traders during this week. Whereas the BOJ is not expected to change the current monetary policy, appreciation of the latest fiscal measures will likely support the Japanese yen (JPY) to strengthen further on Thursday. Moreover, Friday’s inflation data will probably keep exerting downside pressure on the Japanese currency.

The currency pair ignored the sluggish activity data from the United States during the Monday as risk-on sentiment increased due to optimism surrounding the United States and China trade deal. Looking forward, today’s United States Industrial Production, Fed speak, and housing market data can offer immediate direction to the pair movement.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 108.91
  • S2 109.22
  • S1 109.39

Pivot Point 109.53

  • R1 109.7
  • R2 109.84
  • R3 110.15

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On the technical side, the buyers await a clear break of the monthly high surrounding 109.75 to target 110.00 and May month high near 110.70. Meanwhile, 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 109.00 holds the key to fresh declines towards the 108.45/40 support area.

The pair is heading towards the double top resistance level of around 109.700. Below this, the USD/JPY is likely to show a bearish correction of up to 38.2% level, which stays at 109.200. On the higher side, the bullish breakout of USD/JPY can lead the Japanese pair towards 110.300. The MACD and RSI are in support of the bullish trend. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX. Analysis, December 16 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eurozone’s PMI Figure Drives! 

The US Dollar Index was broadly flat at 97.17. The euro slipped 0.1% to $1.1121. Later today, research firm Markit will post December eurozone Manufacturing PMI (47.3 expected) and Services PMI (52.0 expected). The USD/JPY edged up 0.1% to 109.38.

The US Dollar Index was broadly flat at 97.17. The euro slipped 0.1% to $1.1121. Later today, research firm Markit will post December eurozone Manufacturing PMI (47.3 expected) and Services PMI (52.0 expected). The USD/JPY edged up 0.1% to 109.38.

The US Dollar Index was broadly flat at 97.17. The euro slipped 0.1% to $1.1121. Later today, research firm Markit will post December eurozone Manufacturing PMI (47.3 expected) and Services PMI (52.0 expected). The USD/JPY edged up 0.1% to 109.38.

Regarding U.S. economic data, retail sales rose 0.2% on month in November (below the +0.5% expected, +0.4% in October). Import prices increased 0.2% on month (as expected, -0.5% in October).

Later today, the Empire Manufacturing Index for December (5.0 expected) and the Markit US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (52.6 expected) will be reported.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

AUD/USD – Daily Analysis

The AUD/USD currency pair seen unchanged and consolidates in the narrow trading range between the 0.6875 – 0.6878. The currency pair remains depressed despite the fresh optimism over the Sino-US trade deal. As of writing, the Aussie currency pair is currently trading at 0.6875.

The AUD/USD currency pair picked up a buying near 0.6775 following the consumer spending data, which represented a rise in retail sales by 8% year-on-year during November, crossing the forecasted growth of 7.6% by a big range.

Industrial production rose 6.2% compared to an expected rise of 5%, marking an improvement from October’s 4.7%. Moreover, the People’s Bank of China has injected 300 billion Yuan into the system via a one-year medium-term lending facility. 

The AUD/USD currency pair did not succeed to gain on its early positive move and saw a dramatic intraday turnaround on Friday. Moreover, the uncertainty regarding the US President Donald Trump’s decision to cancel the December 15 tariff-hike on Chinese imports weighed heavily on the China-proxy Australian dollar, causing a drop in AUD/USD pair around 75 pips from an intraday high level of 0.6938 the highest since July 26.

The bullish sentiment remains weak, possibly due to the reports that Beijing is planning to lower its 2020 gross domestic product target to 6% from the current year’s 6.5%. 

Looking forward, the worries of a deeper recession in China in 2020 will likely continue to overshadow the phase one US-China trade deal and send the AUD lower.

Daily Support and Resistance  

  • S3 0.6759
  • S2 0.6824
  • S1 0.685

Pivot Point 0.6889

  • R1 0.6915
  • R2 0.6954
  • R3 0.7019

AUD/USD– Trading Tips

The AUD/USD pair is hanging around 0.6900, trading mostly bullish despite staying in the overbought zone. The traded higher further above the 0.6865 mark, the 61.8% Fibo retracement level of its November slide. In the 4-hour chart, the 20 SMA has hastened north over the bigger ones, all of them under the current mark. In contrast, the technical indicators lead to the north in overbought territory, without indications of bullish exhaustion. The rally is set to remain on a break over 0.6930, the next resistance.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair still found on the bullish track and remain supportive mainly due to the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson win who promised to leave the European Union (EU) swiftly before January 31, 2020. 

The GBP/USD currency pair traded bullish at 1.3388 and representing sizeable gains of +0.50%, having hit the high of 1.3398. By the way, the pair consolidates in the range between 1.3337 – 1.3398.

Prime Minister Johnson will welcome 109 new Conservative lawmakers to parliament and will repeat his promise to increase funding to the state health service on the day.

Moreover, the GBP/USD currency pair is also supported by the increased expectations of an improvement in the UK’s manufacturing sector activity, as the Markit Preliminary Manufacturing PMI for December is seen arriving at 49.4 against. 48.9 previous. The country’s Services PMI is expected to reach at 49.6 against. 49.3 last.

At the greenback front, markets still unexcited despite the details of the US-China Phase One trade deal. The US dollar index now tests the 97 handles, retreating from Friday’s highs of 97.24.

The GBP currency buyers will keep up the buying because the UK looks to clear the Brexit departure Agreement in the parliament before Christmas. In contrast, the Bank of England (BOE) may signal a willingness to change course on the monetary policy, with the United Kingdom election out of the way.             

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.3025
  • S2 1.32
  • S1 1.3267

Pivot Point 1.3374

  • R1 1.3441
  • R2 1.3548
  • R3 1.3722

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is presently consolidating around at1.3457, placing around 19-month high to 1.3515 during the US session yesterday. The UK election exit polls foretelling a big win for the incumbent Prime Minister Boris Johnson. 

The GBP/USD pair’s 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is now floating around 80.47. I must say it’s the highest mark since January 2018. An above 70-reading shows overbought situations. Consider capturing retracement below 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair hit the bullish track and representing some moderate gains mainly due to fresh trade optimism between the United States and China. As of writing, the currency pair is currently trading at 109.38 and consolidates in the range of 109.31 – 109.44.

Notably, the currency pair had some good 2-way price moves on Friday and was impressed by the full market risk-on sentiment, which turned out to be one of the major reasons that affected the Japanese yen’s as a perceived safe-haven status. 

However, the USD/JPY pair quickly reversed an early decline to sub-109.00 levels and recovered to multi-month highs in the wake of optimism of UK Parliamentary elections.

However, the bullish momentum failed near the 109.70 regions after the disappointing release of the United States’ monthly retail sales data, which kept the greenback buyers on the defensive.]The uncertainty regarding the United States President Donald Trump’s decision to cancel the December 15 tariff-hike on Chinese imports further helped to the pair’s intraday pullback of around 35-40 pips.

It should be noted that the USD/JPY currency pair finally closed unchanged for the day but succeeded in recovering some positive traction. That might have been due to the United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer’s comments on Sunday, saying that the phase-one Sino-US trade deal is done. Under the agreement, China said it would increase agricultural purchases due to the US’ decision not to attempt a new round of tariffs.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 108.42
  • S2 108.92
  • S1 109.13

Pivot Point 109.42

  • R1 109.63
  • R2 109.92
  • R3 110.42

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY rose 0.8% to 109.40 as investors’ risk appetite grew. The pair is heading towards the double top resistance level of around 109.700. Below this, the USD/JPY is likely to show a bearish correction of up to 38.2% level, which stays at 109.200. 

On the higher side, the bullish breakout of USD/JPY can lead the Japanese pair towards 110.300. The MACD and RSI are in support of the bullish trend. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Gold Develops Ascending Triangle Pattern – U.S. Retail Sales in Play! 

On Friday, the precious metal is trading a bit calm after exhibiting dramatic movement, placing a high of around 1,484 to a low of 1,462. Despite weaker than expected macroeconomic data from the United States, the U.S. dollar remained a bit strong on Thursday as the trade optimism increased.  

On Friday, the precious metal is trading a bit calm after exhibiting dramatic movement, placing a high of around 1,484 to a low of 1,462. Despite weaker than expected macroeconomic data from the United States, the U.S. dollar remained a bit strong on Thursday as the trade optimism increased.  

On Friday, the precious metal is trading a bit calm after exhibiting dramatic movement, placing a high of around 1,484 to a low of 1,462. Despite weaker than expected macroeconomic data from the United States, the U.S. dollar remained a bit strong on Thursday as the trade optimism increased.  

The U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted on Thursday that “Getting VERY close to a BIG DEAL with China. They want it, and so do we!”. Which raised the hopes for completion of the phase-one trade deal sooner, and riskier assets gained traction.

Besides, another positive gesture by the United States was an offer made to China as part of a phase one deal. The U.S. negotiators offered to cut the existing tariffs and not to impose the latest round of tariffs in exchange for U.S. agricultural purchases from China and better intellectual property rights.

They offered to decrease existing tariffs by half in return for large U.S. agricultural purchases from China. So far, China has not responded but has argued that binding in a written agreement for investments would be against WTO rules and would also harm Chinese companies.

Gold – XAU/USD – Daily Technical Levels

Support     Resistance 

1,460.28     1,483.1

1,450.74     1,496.37

1,427.92     1,519.18

Pivot Point 1,473.55

Technically, gold has formed an ascending triangle pattern, which is keeping the XAU/USD supported over 1,462 level. A bearish breakout of this can trigger further selling until 1,455, but that significant movement isn’t expected on the U.S. retail sales until and unless we see a dramatic deviation in figures. 

On the higher side, 1,480 is likely to be the next resistance area for gold. So we can play within this limited range, selling at the top and buying at the bottom. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 13 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Borish Johnson’s Takes a Lead! 

Welcome to the last trading day of a week. The British Pound surged 2.1% to a six-month high of $1.3474. U.K. exit polls predicted that Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative party would win a majority in the House of Commons.

Welcome to the last trading day of a week. The British Pound surged 2.1% to a six-month high of $1.3474. U.K. exit polls predicted that Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative party would win a majority in the House of Commons.

Welcome to the last trading day of a week. The British Pound surged 2.1% to a six-month high of $1.3474. U.K. exit polls predicted that Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative party would win a majority in the House of Commons.

The euro advanced 0.5% to $1.1184. While the European Central Bank kept its monetary policy unchanged as expected, President Christine Lagarde said there are some indications of stabilization in the slowdown in the Eurozone’s growth and downside risks are less pronounced.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

AUD/USD – Daily Analysis

The AUD/USD currency pair flashing green and hit the fresh one-month highs closer to the 0.690 levels. The AUD/USD currency pair is trading at 0.6909 and consolidates n the range between 0.6867 – 0.6910. The AUD/USD did not take any effect from the greenback strength and had continued its bullish rally.

The buying tone surrounding the China-proxy Aussie seemed rather unaffected by persistent risk regarding a phase one trade deal ahead of the December 15 deadline for the new U.S. tariffs on around $156 billion worth of Chinese imports.

At the Sino-US front, the U.S. President Donald Trump is yet to decide on the December 15 tariffs, though optimism continues on the back of news that negotiators were laying the groundwork for a preliminary deal to end the trade war.

Looking forward, Thursday’s U.S. economic docket, featuring the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI), will likely influence the USD price dynamics and produce some short-term trading opportunities during the early North-American session.

Daily Support and Resistance 

  • R3 0.7038
  • R2 0.6977
  • R1 0.6953

Pivot Point 0.6915

  • S1 0.6891
  • S2 0.6854
  • S3 0.6793

AUD/USD– Trading Tips

The AUD/USD pair is hanging around 0.6900, trading mostly bullish despite staying in the overbought zone. The traded higher further above the 0.6865 mark, the 61.8% Fibo retracement level of its November slide. In the 4-hour chart, the 20 SMA has hastened north over the bigger ones, all of them under the current mark. In contrast, the technical indicators lead to the north in overbought territory, without indications of bullish exhaustion. The rally is set to remain on a break over 0.6930, the next resistance.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The British Pound surged 2.1% to a six-month high of $1.3474. U.K. exit polls predicted that Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative party would win a majority in the House of Commons.

The British Pound advanced piercingly overnight following the Conservative Party of Boris Johnson, who won a substantial majority in the General Election, and while the GBP has found a temporary resistance. Fundamentally, I do see the potential for further gains after sterling completes the bearish retracement. 

Besides this, the focus is on trade wars whereby an official announcement is expected to come from U.S. President Donald Trump. Bloomberg reported in recent trade that Trump would meet with his trade advisers at 19:30 GMT. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, White House economic adviser Kudlow and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin are expected to attend the meeting.

The latest reports are that the United States has considered offering a 50% reduction on $360 billion worth of Chinese imports, which raised market spirits, fulling higher benchmarks and gave an increase in U.S. Treasury bond yields. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2969
  • S2 1.3071
  • S1 1.3133

Pivot Point 1.3173

  • R1 1.3235
  • R2 1.3276
  • R3 1.3378

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is presently consolidating around at1.3457, placing around 19-month high to 1.3515 during the U.S. session yesterday. The U.K. election exit polls foretelling a big win for the incumbent Prime Minister Boris Johnson. 

The GBP/USD pair’s 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is now floating around 80.47. I must say it’s the highest mark since January 2018. An above 70-reading shows overbought situations. Consider capturing retracement below 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair was flashing green and climber from 108.60 to 109.30, hit the highest level for one-week mainly due to the latest trade headlines in which U.S. President Trump suggests an imminent deal with China. As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 109.36 and consolidates in the range between 108.45 – 109.44.

Fresh expectations regarding a deal between the United States and China on tariffs before the December 15 deadline supported equity markets. The Dow Jones reached new record highs and now is up 0.35%, off highs as the optimism eased. 

The United States bonds fell, pushing the yen lower across the board. The United States’ ten-year yield raised by more than 5% as it soared to 1.90% from 1.80% just in a few minutes. Other save haven assets like gold, also dropped significantly. 

More headlines related to trade may continue to flow, giving an impact on market sentiment. The rally of the USD/JPY was also supported by technical factors. The pair climbed above the 109.00 area, breaking a 7-day trading range. It also rose back above the 20-day moving average that stands at 108.80, level that could be seen now as the immediate support. The next support is the lower limit of the mentioned range around 108.40.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 107.94
  • S2 108.28
  • S1 108.42

Pivot Point 108.61

  • R1 108.75
  • R2 108.94
  • R3 109.27

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY rose 0.8% to 109.40 as investors’ risk appetite grew. The pair is heading towards the double top resistance level of around 109.700. Below this, the USD/JPY is likely to show a bearish correction of up to 38.2% level, which stays at 109.200. 

On the higher side, the bullish breakout of USD/JPY can lead the Japanese pair towards 110.300. The MACD and RSI are in support of the bullish trend. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Gold’s Bullish Bias Continues – Dovish FOMC and U.S. Shino In Play! 

Gold continues to trade bullish around 1,478 as we enter in the U.S. session. Most of the buying came after the dovish reports from the FOMC, as investors’ focus shifts to the trade war.

Gold continues to trade bullish around 1,478 as we enter in the U.S. session. Most of the buying came after the dovish reports from the FOMC, as investors’ focus shifts to the trade war.

Gold continues to trade bullish around 1,478 as we enter in the U.S. session. Most of the buying came after the dovish reports from the FOMC, as investors’ focus shifts to the trade war.

The Federal Reserve announced that it would proceed to watch the data to see if global developments and the muted inflationary pressure affect the U.S. economy. The fed statement of December meeting had no comments like it had in October’s meeting statement in which it was mentioned that uncertainties about outlook remained.

The latest signals from the Fed in its summary of economic projections gave the sense that the Federal Reserve may not run at all in 2020. When asked whether a hike in interest rates would Fbe seen next year, Chairman Jerome Powell answered that a persistent increase in inflation would be required to withdraw the stimulus Fed added this year. And that was a fairly high bar which he does not think will be met in 2020.

Speaking about the U.S. China trade talks, the director of White House National Economic Council Larry Kudlow said the media that “the reality is those tariffs are still on table, the December 15 tariffs, and the President has intimated if the little strokes that are still prevailing in trade talks do not get sorted out as per Trump’s wish, those tariffs could go back into place”.

XAU/USD – Daily Technical Levels 


Support Resistance 

1465.37 1481.64

1455.92 1488.48

1439.64 1504.76

Pivot Point 1472.2

The technical side of the market remained bullish as the precious metal trades above the strong support level of 1,471. On the higher side, gold is likely to find resistance around 1,483. 

Speaking about the leading indicators, the RSI and MACD are suggesting buying trends. So, we should look for bullish trades today. We will prefer staying bullish over 1,474 levels to target 1,482 today. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 12 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – U.K. Voting and ECB in Play! 

 

 

The U.S. dollar declined versus other major currencies as the Fed signaled that interest rates could be stable at current levels through 2020. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index sank to 97.08, the lowest level since August.

The euro rose 0.4% to $1.1133. The European Central Bank is expected to keep its monetary policy unchanged later today.

As expected, the Federal Reserve maintained the rates after cutting them at three earlier meetings. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated that monetary policy is well-positioned for the expanding economy, where the jobs market is expected to remain strong and inflation moderate.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair slightly recovered in the last hour in the wake of inflation data released from the United States, which made the EUR/USD pair weaker. As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading 1.1094 but virtually unchanged daily near the 1.1090 handles. 

The data published by the United States (U.S.) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Wednesday showed that the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the United States stayed unchanged at 2.3% every year during November. Although these figures came in line with the market expectation, the initial reaction caused the U.S. Dollar Index to drop to a fresh session low below the 97.50 marks.

Despite this, the EUR/USD currency pair may not pick up bid further in the coming hours because traders are unlikely to take large bets before the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee monetary policy announcements. However, investors don’t see the Federal Reserve cutting rate again; the updated economic projections will provide fresh hints regarding the rating outlook in 2020. 

After the FOMC event, investors’ eyes will shift to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) meeting and President Lagarde’s first press conference on Thursday.

According to the ECB event, we will not see the steady bullish progress in the EUR currency because policy continuity should be the main takeaway. Lagarde’s style and sound is a wild card. Preventing an early misstep there, the slight declines we see to growth may be offset upgrades to next year’s inflation forecast.

At the Fed front, the Federal Reserve is expected to keep the Fed Funds rate stable at the 1.50 – 1.75% range. After cutting interest rates 3-times in a series, for now, market participants see no change today and also at the January meeting. Most members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) mentioned they think the current stance of policy appropriate. 

Looking forward, the Federal Reserve will announce its decision regarding monetary policy today at 19:00 GMT. Chairman Jerome Powell will read a statement and will hold a press conference at 19:30 GMT. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.102
  • S2 1.1043
  • S1 1.1054

Pivot Point 1.1066

  • R1 1.1076
  • R2 1.1089
  • R3 1.1111

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD has crossed over its 5-month downtrend at 1.1113. The EUR/USD is trending higher but has not gained any support until now. The EUR/USD has next support near 61.8% Fibonacci support level of 1.1105.  

While the resistance stays around 1.1190, and the 1.1225 horizontal resistance mark strictly follows it. Considering the recent crossover on MACD, the pair may trade bearish below the 1.1100 level today. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair dropped but recovered a significant part of its early declines to weekly lows manly in the reaction to the latest election polls results. As of now, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading near the 1.3179 and consolidates in the narrow range between 1.3108 – 1.3188 after the Fed holding rates steady yet signaling that there will not be a change in rates in 2020, something quite to the contrary of Fed watchers.

The pair continued the previous session’s late pullback from over eight-month highs and saw some follow-through long-unwinding trade on Wednesday in the wake of the latest U.K. election poll, which tilted towards a hung parliament.

A closely watched YouGov’s poll based on the MRP model showed a narrowing lead for Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party, now expected to win a majority of 28 seats in the parliament, falling sharply from 68 last month.

The slight pick up in the greenback demand, despite the uncertainty of President Trump regarding the phase-one trade deal between the United States and China, further collaborated to the pair’s intraday slide to the 1.3100 neighborhood.

No:1 Key takeaways from FOMC statement and projections

No:2 The market has priced in virtually no chance of rate move through February.

No:3 IOER 1.55% vs 1.55% prior.

No:4 Fed drops language about ‘uncertainties about this outlook remain.’

No:5 The vote was unanimous.

No:6 The Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook, including global developments and muted inflation pressures, as it assesses the appropriate path of the target range for the federal funds rate.”

No:7 No changes in the economic outlook paragraph*

No:8 Says, “the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate.”

No:9 Leaves forecasts for GDP and inflation unchanged lowers 

unemployment.

No:10 The median forecast is for one rate hike in 2021 and one in 2022.

Looking forward, we are now counting down to the U.K. election vote for Thursday, where results are expected to come in from around 0200 GMT onwards. Pound Sterling has been improving because of yesterday’s YouGov outcome that proved the Conservative’s lead was narrowing. 


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.3056
  • S2 1.3104
  • S1 1.3124

Pivot Point 1.3153

  • R1 1.3173
  • R2 1.3202
  • R3 1.325

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBPUSD is displaying a solid bullish bias as traders seem confident about the victory of the Conservative party and assume Boris Johanson to win the election. The GBP/USD may persist massively volatile today, and a day after, as the election result will start reaching out by tomorrow morning. On the higher side, the GBP/USD is expected to find resistance around 1.3265 and 1.3336. While the support can be seen near 1.3185 and 1.3110.

The RSI and MACD are in the bullish zone, signaling chances of a bearish correction, but then the Sterling will be found to do more upward movement. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair initially hit the bullish track and rose to 108.76 and the reversed falling to 108.57, the new daily bearish level after the decision of the Federal Reserve to keep the rate unchanged. As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 108.60, slightly lower as compared to previous before the statement.

The greenback dropped across the bard and hit the fresh bearish levels. The U.S. Dollar Index dropped under 97.30, the lowest level since November 4. The United States’ yields moved to the downside, and equity prices in Wall Street rose but remain under the highs. 

At the Sino-US front, the clock is ticking because we close in on the deadline on the so-called ‘phase- one’ deal and/or tariff delay by December 15. We are awaiting an announcement from U.S. President Donald Trump to come before the weekend’s deadline. Moreover, the news yesterday that tariffs would be delayed caused a short period of risk-on in the markets. Still, the news was unconfirmed, and Trump’s closest advisers tell the decision is finally depend on the president.

Daily Support and Resistance    

  • S3 108.06
  • S2 108.31
  • S1 108.43

Pivot Point 108.56

  • R1 108.68
  • R2 108.8
  • R3 109.05

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Thursday, the dovish FOMC and weaker U.S. dollar have driven sharp selling in the USD/JPY currency pair this week. For now, the pair is trading above 108.550, which is working as a double bottom support level.

A bearish breakout of this level can trigger selling until 108.250. The USD/JPY has already completed 81% retracement on three hourly charts, and this level can give some support to USD/JPY. Above this, the pair may find resistance around 108.900. Let’s wait for NFP to determine the further trend of USD/JPY. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Steady Movement In Gold – Eyes on FOMC & Fed Rate Decision Today 

On Wednesday, the price of the precious metal gold moved in a tight range as cautious traders back out from big bets before of U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy statement following in the day and amid an imminent tariff deadline.

On Wednesday, the price of the precious metal gold moved in a tight range as cautious traders back out from big bets before of U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy statement following in the day and amid an imminent tariff deadline.

On Wednesday, the price of the precious metal gold moved in a tight range as cautious traders back out from big bets before of U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy statement following in the day and amid an imminent tariff deadline.

The Small Business Index from the U.S. National Federation of Independent Business (NIFB) was released. The report showed an increased figure in the month of November to 104.7 from the expected 103.1, which supported the greenback.

At 18:30 GMT, the Revised Non-Farm Productivity for the third quarter was released and came in as -0.2% against the expectations of -0.1%. The Revised Unit Labour Costs for the third quarter from the United States dropped to 2.5% from the expectations of 3.4%.

According to the analysis of Chinese & U.S. data, China has bought more U.S. soybeans between September and November this year, giving an excellent gesture to try to reach an initial agreement on trade. The Chinese imports of U.S. soybeans increased 13 times from the previous year’s same period.

However, Chinese officials are hopeful that the U.S. will delay a threatened tariff increase due on Sunday as both countries are focused on the de-escalation of trade tensions. Traders are keeping an eye on a specific move from China or the U.S. in the development of trade deal to react accordingly.

Investors are also waiting for the forecast of U.S. economic growth from policymakers who are attending a two-day meeting of Federal Reserve, which will end on Wednesday. Federal Reserve is expected to hold its interest rates unchanged in this meeting. On Wednesday, the Consumer Price Index from the United States will be released, which is expected to drop to 0.2% from the previous month’s 0.4%.

Gold – XAU/USD – Trade Plan

This week, the precious metal gold hasn’t exhibited major movements as most of the market awaited the U.S. CPI and FOMC figures. Gold is stuck in a tight trading range of 1,467 – 1,459.  

On the 4-hour timeframe, gold is forming neutral candles within the same range of 1,467 – 1,459, which is signaling a lull before the storm. Gold is also gaining support around 1,459, and it’s extended by a bullish trendline while the RSI and MACD stay around 50 and 0, respectively. 

Gold – XAU/USD – Daily Technical Levels

Support    Resistance 

1,459.88      1,469.07

1,455.37      1,473.74

1,446.19      1,482.92

Pivot Point 1464.56

A bearish breakout of 1,458 can lead to gold prices towards 1,452 level. Alternatively, the bullish breakout of 1,467 can lead it towards 1,471 and even higher. Looks like, traders are going to keep trading choppy session until the CPI and FOMC is released tomorrow. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 11 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Brace for FOMC & Fed Rate!

The forex market extends trading sessions mostly with the mixed sentiments as the trader’s eye remains on the Fed Policy decision and CPI rate today. The FOMC will publish its policy statement, and Chairman Powell will be giving his comments on the policy standpoint. Ahead of this event, the U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.22% at 97.45 on Tuesday, supporting the pair stay relaxed above the 0.6800 handles. 

The forex market extends trading sessions mostly with the mixed sentiments as the trader’s eye remains on the Fed Policy decision and CPI rate today. The FOMC will publish its policy statement, and Chairman Powell will be giving his comments on the policy standpoint. Ahead of this event, the U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.22% at 97.45 on Tuesday, supporting the pair stay relaxed above the 0.6800 handles. 

The forex market extends trading sessions mostly with the mixed sentiments as the trader’s eye remains on the Fed Policy decision and CPI rate today. The FOMC will publish its policy statement, and Chairman Powell will be giving his comments on the policy standpoint. Ahead of this event, the U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.22% at 97.45 on Tuesday, supporting the pair stay relaxed above the 0.6800 handles. 

Today, the trader’s focus will stay on the U.S. Monetary Policy and CPI rate from the U.S. Let’s brace for it. 

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals. 

AUD/USD – Daily Analysis

The AUD/UD currency pair flashing green and rose to 0.6835, mainly due to the upbeat data from Australia and unexpectedly higher inflation figures from China. As of writing, the AUD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.6814 and consolidates in the range between the 0.6800 – 0.6837.

The currency pair struggled to maintain its recovery rally due to a lack of progress surrounding the United States and China trade war and fell to a fresh weekly low of 0.6800 before recovering modesty.

The National Australia Bank’s Business Conditions Index remained unchanged at 4 in November, but it beat the expectations of 2. On the other, the annual House Price Index for the third quarter came in at -3.7%, after a second quarter’s figure of -7.4%, which supported the Australian Dollar.

In the second half of the day, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that the U.S. and China’s trade negotiators are working toward delaying the December 15 tariff hike. That gave a boost to the market sentiment and trade-sensitive AUD.

During the Asian session on Wednesday, Westpac Consumer Confidence Index from Australia, which is expected to drop to -0.7% in December from 4.5% in November, will be keeping under the eyes. 

Following in the day, the FOMC will release its policy statement, and Chairman Powell will be delivering his remarks on the policy outlook. Ahead of this event, the U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.22% at 97.45 on Tuesday, supporting the pair stay relaxed above the 0.6800 handles.

While reviewing Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, “after three cuts in a series, we expect the Fed to remain on hold (target range 1.50-1.75%) when it meets next week,” said Danske Bank analysts. “FOMC members have made it clear that they think the ‘current stance of monetary policy is appropriate’ and that they now want to wait some time and see how everything plays out before acting again.”


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 0.6795
  • S2 0.6811
  • S1 0.6817

Pivot Point 0.6826

  • R1 0.6833
  • R2 0.6842
  • R3 0.6858

AUD/USD– Trading Tips

On Wednesday, the AUD/USD is consolidating mostly bearish after falling below 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 0.6820. It has also completed 50% Fibonacci retracement at 0.6795. The AUD/USD pair is now trading around 0.6808, in between the upper limit of 0.6820 and a lower limit of 0.6795. 

 A bearish breakout of 0.6795 level can extend selling until 0.6775. The MACD is holding below 0, suggesting the chances of a bearish trend continuation in Aussie. Let’s look for buying above 0.6775 and selling below 0.6820level. 

 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair flashing green and hit the seven-months high from the bearish level of 1.3132 to 1.3189 while heading toward the United Kingdom elections on Thursday, and the result of elections will be released early Friday morning. As of writing, the currency is currently trading at 1.3188 and consolidates in the range between the 1..3132 to 1.3197.

According to the current situation, the Tories are ready to win the U.K. election, which may put the Brexit deal to bed. Today, the United Kingdom’s economic data don’t take a front seat due to the election hype, despite flat figures for Gross Domestic Produce for October. 

The GDP figures have followed 2-consecutive monthly contractions, which means we have now seen 3-consecutive months of negative/zero m/m growth for the 1st-time since 2009.

It should be noted that after this week’s snap December election, the next difficulty for the United Kingdom markets is next week’s Bank of England decision. However, the United Kingdom data continues to fall at a moderate rate since the last BoE meeting, which drives the dovish sentiment regarding the next rate decision. 

Looking forward, the markets will keep their focus on the Federal Open Market Committee and the Federal Reserve after the interest rate decision. Rates are expected to remain stable at 1.50-1.75%, while patience rhetoric will follow previous Federal Reserve speeches and statements furnished with preconditions before rate cut again in the future. 

    

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.3056
  • S2 1.3104
  • S1 1.3124

Pivot Point 1.3153

  • R1 1.3173
  • R2 1.3202
  • R3 1.325

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The cable pair holds a bullish tone, but it is showing some short-term bearish signals after being unable to stay on top of 1.3160. Nevertheless, the trend in the pair points clearly to the upside, and consolidation of the GBP/USD above 1.3180 would expose the pair towards 1.3200. The prices need to cross May month high near 1.3180 to target 1.3200 and 1.3270 figures to the north, declining to do so highlights Wednesday’s top surrounding 1.3120 as immediate support. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair hit the bullish track and reached 108.75, mainly due to the Wall Street Journal reported that the United States and China trade talks are working toward delaying the tariff hike. After fastening to a fresh daily bullish of 108.75, the pair USD/JPY currency pair reversed slightly and was last seen trading at 108.62, where it was up 0.05% on a daily chart.

The U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators are planning for a delay of a fresh round of tariffs set to impose on December 15, according to officials on both sides. The market reaction to this headline also provided the ten-year United States Treasury bond yield to cancel its daily losses and helped the S&P 500 futures to move into the positive territory, pointing out to a positive shift in the market sentiment.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index remains to move sideways a little above the 97.50 marks to allow the risk perception to continue to drive the pair’s action.

At the starting of today, the NFIB Business Optimism Index in the U.S. increased to 104.7 during November from 102.4, but the Unit Labor Costs rose 2.5% in the 3rd-quarter to drop short of the market expectation for an increase of 3.3%. But, these readings were largely ignored by the market members ahead of the FOMC’s monetary policy announcements on Wednesday. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 108.06
  • S2 108.31
  • S1 108.43

Pivot Point 108.56

  • R1 108.68
  • R2 108.8
  • R3 109.05

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Wednesday, the USD/JPY is likely to trade sideways until the release of FOMC and U.S. inflation rates. The pair is trading above 108.550, which is working as a double bottom support level. A bearish breakout of this level can trigger selling until 108.250. The USD/JPY has already completed 81% retracement on three hourly charts, and this level can give some support to USD/JPY. Above this, the pair may find resistance around 108.900. Let’s wait for FOMC to determine the further trend of USD/JPY. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 10 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eyes on British GDP Figures! 

The market continues to trade mixed risk sentiment due to diminishing expectations of no interest rate cuts by the Fed and delay in the trade deal. The top White House Economic Adviser, Larry Kudlow, confirmed on Friday that the December 15 deadline to impose new tariffs on around $156 billion worth Chinese products remains in place.  

The market continues to trade mixed risk sentiment due to diminishing expectations of no interest rate cuts by the Fed and delay in the trade deal. The top White House Economic Adviser, Larry Kudlow, confirmed on Friday that the December 15 deadline to impose new tariffs on around $156 billion worth Chinese products remains in place.  

The market continues to trade mixed risk sentiment due to diminishing expectations of no interest rate cuts by the Fed and delay in the trade deal. The top White House Economic Adviser, Larry Kudlow, confirmed on Friday that the December 15 deadline to impose new tariffs on around $156 billion worth Chinese products remains in place.  

At the same time, he also said that the U.S. President Donald Trump is satisfied with the recent progress in trade discussions. Yet he is not looking to go with the current phase one trade deal. 

Today, the trader’s focus will stay on the British GDP and further events from the Eurozone. Let’s brace for it. 

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair continues its bullish moves mainly due to the greenback’s bearish reversal across the board and weaker United States Treasury yields. As of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading near the 1.1064 and consolidates in the narrow range between the 1.1053 – 1.1078.

Besides, the currency pair picked up the fresh buying during the last hour, in the wake of the revived trade war between the United States and China. The dismal of China trade data also depressed the market mood.

The lowered demand for higher-yielding assets such as the Treasury yields pushed the U.S. dollar broadly lower. The USD index corrects Friday’s positive U.S. payrolls led upsurge to 97.84, now trading at session lows of 97.63, -0.15% on the day.

Even after the recent bullish moves, the currency pair still in the red zone because the greenback may remain supported by the stronger United States employment data that diminished the 2020 rate cut expectations by the Federal Reserve.

At the ECB front, the European Central Bank (ECB) President Largerde will deliver her first speech as a president regarding monetary policy during this Thursday. She will likely provide a hint about the ECB’s commitment to the recent stimulus package that included a rate cut and the restarting of the quantitative rate cut(Q.E.) program.

Meanwhile, the markets now await the Eurozone Sentix Investor Sentiment data, which is de during the European session today. Better-than-expected German Trade and Current Account data also collaborate with the positive tone around the shared currency.

Furthermore, the investor’s confidence in the Eurozone increased sharply in December, despite rising US-China trade tensions and the German slowdown, the latest data published by the Sentix research group showed on Monday.

The quote climbed to +0.7 in December from -4.5 in November and against a figure of -4.9 expected. The investors’ confidence hit the highest since March 2018.


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.093
  • S2 1.1
  • S1 1.1031

Pivot Point 1.107

  • R1 1.1101
  • R2 1.1141
  • R3 1.1211

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD has disappointed in its first test of the 5-month downtrend at 1.1113. The EUR/USD is trending lower but has not gained any support until now. The EUR/USD has next support near 61.8% Fibonacci support level of 1.1040.  

While the resistance stays around 1.1070, and the 1.1075 horizontal resistance mark strictly follows it. Considering the recent crossover on MACD, the pair may trade bearish below the 1.1070 level today. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair flashing red and representing declines to 1.3135 from the highest level since early April of 1.3180 after the release of a new poll ahead of the snap December elections in the United Kingdom. The Cable experienced a slight bearish reversal on Monday and mostly traded at 1.3155/60, up 20 pips for the day. 

The GBP/USD currency pair was seen on the bullish track on Monday, but it remains under 1.3200. The GBP continues to be supported by the polls showing a top position of the Conservatives Party. Just minutes ago, the fresh opinion poll by ICM revealed that the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johson’s Conservative Party remain unchanged at 42%. In contrast, support for the party rose by 1 point to 36%. The Tory slightly pushed lower the GBP in advance.

The reversal in the GBP/USD currency pair was limited as the volatility remain low, and the U.S. dollar continued to show slight bearish bias. 

Looking forward, the critical event in the U.S. will be the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Analysts and traders are also focusing on trade progress as the December 15 deadline for hiking tariffs on Chinese goods remains in highlights. 


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.3004
  • S2 1.3069
  • S1 1.3103

Pivot Point 1.3134

  • R1 1.3168
  • R2 1.32
  • R3 1.3265

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On the technical side, the cable pair holds a bullish tone, but it is showing some short-term bearish signals after being unable to stay on top of 1.3160. Nevertheless, the trend in the pair points clearly to the upside, and consolidation of the GBP/USD above 1.3180 would expose the pair towards 1.3200. 

The prices need to cross May month high near 1.3180 to target 1.3200 and 1.3270 figures to the north, declining to do so highlights Wednesday’s top surrounding 1.3120 as immediate support.

In the daily timeframe, the GBP/USD has an upward crossover on MACD. Lastly, the three white candles on the daily timeframe are suggesting bullish bias among traders. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair hit the five-days low below the 108.50 ahead of important macroeconomic events. The pair struggle to stage a recovery on Monday and was last seen trading at 108.49, a few pips above the 5-day low that it set at 108.43 in the last hour.

The economic figures showed that the business sentiment grew slightly during November with the Eco Watchers Survey’s Outlook and the Current indexes both coming out better than their October figures.

Looking forward, the trader will keep their eyes on the fresh progress surrounding the United States and China trade talks. If both sides could make a deal and sign the phase-one of the trade deal ahead of the United States tariff hike on Chinese imports on December 15, a relief rally will likely cause the Japanese Yen to lose interest as a safe-haven and support the pair gain bullish moves.

The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be publishing its monetary policy decisions on Wednesday. In contrast, the FOMC is not expected to make any changes to its policy rate. It will be interesting to see how the Fed estimates the positive Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. 

Last week on Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 266,000 during November to cross the market expectation of 180,000 and provided a boost to the U.S. Dollar Index. Consequently, the USD/JPY pair got bullish support. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 futures are virtually unchanged on the day, hinting that Wall Street is likely to open flat to reiterate the neutral market sentiment.


Daily Support and Resistance   

  • S3 107.85
  • S2 108.26
  • S1 108.44

Pivot Point 108.68

  • R1 108.85
  • R2 109.1
  • R3 109.51

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Tuesday, the demand for haven assets and weaker U.S. dollar has driven sharp selling in the USD/JPY currency pair this week. For now, the pair is trading above 108.550, which is working as a double bottom support level.

A bearish breakout of this level can trigger selling until 108.250. The USD/JPY has already completed 81% retracement on three hourly charts, and this level can give some support to USD/JPY. Above this, the pair may find resistance around 108.900. Let’s wait for NFP to determine the further trend of USD/JPY. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Gold Bounces Off Amid Safe Haven Appeal – What’s Next?

During the Asian and European sessions, the precious metal gold surged as traders hedged against a possible intensification in the U.S.-China trade conflict before a Dec. 15 deadline for fresh U.S. tariffs.

During the Asian and European sessions, the precious metal gold surged as traders hedged against a possible intensification in the U.S.-China trade conflict before a Dec. 15 deadline for fresh U.S. tariffs.

During the Asian and European sessions, the precious metal gold surged as traders hedged against a possible intensification in the U.S.-China trade conflict before a Dec. 15 deadline for fresh U.S. tariffs.

Overall, the precious metal remains under pressure in the wake of a stronger U.S. dollar. The Average Hourly Earnings from the United States Bureau of Labour Statistics was published, which showed a decline in November to 0.2% from the expectations of 0.3% and weighed on the U.S. dollar.

The Non-Farm Employment Change for November showed growth to 266K from expected 181K and supported the U.S. dollar. The Unemployment Rate of the United States also declined in November to 3.5% from previous & expected 3.6% and added in support of the U.S. dollar.

Besides, the Preliminary Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan also came in favor of the U.S. dollar as 99.2 against the expectations of 97.0. The Final Wholesale Inventories for October were also in favor of the U.S. dollar when released as 0.1% against the expectation of 0.2%. The Preliminary Inflation Expectations from the University of Michigan showed a drop this month to 2.4% from the previous 2.5%.


Gold – XAU/USD – Daily Technical Levels

Support      Resistance 

1,452.48      1,474.11

1,444.81      1,488.08

1,423.18      1,509.71

Pivot Point 1,466.44

Gold is likely to trade bullish above 1,459, which is working as a horizontal support level. The closing of Doji and Inside up bar patterns are suggesting chances of a bullish reversal in gold. 

It looks like gold is trying to capture a bullish retracement, and it has completed 23.6% Fibo corrections at 1,464. This level is now extending substantial resistance to gold. 

The bearish breakout of 1,459 can lead to gold prices towards 1,450. While bullish trend continuation can lead to gold prices to 1,471, I will be staying bearish below 1,466 today. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 09 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Mixed Risk Sentiment In Play!

The U.S. dollar rebounded against other major currencies, as the ICE U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.3% to 97.68, halting a six-session losing streak. EUR/USD lost 0.4% to close at 1.1060. Germany’s industrial production declined 1.7% on month in October (+0.1% expected).

The U.S. dollar rebounded against other major currencies, as the ICE U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.3% to 97.68, halting a six-session losing streak. EUR/USD lost 0.4% to close at 1.1060. Germany’s industrial production declined 1.7% on month in October (+0.1% expected).

The U.S. dollar rebounded against other major currencies, as the ICE U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.3% to 97.68, halting a six-session losing streak. EUR/USD lost 0.4% to close at 1.1060. Germany’s industrial production declined 1.7% on month in October (+0.1% expected).

The U.S. Labor Department reported that the economy added 266,000 nonfarm payrolls in November (+180,000 expected, +156,000 in October). The jobless rate dropped to 3.5% from 3.6%, the lowest level since 1969. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan Sentiment Index (preliminary reading) rose to 99.2 in December (97.0 expected) from 96.8 in November.

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

Economic Events to Watch Today

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair is flashing red and representing marginal declines on the day, mainly due to the tension of the intensified trade war between the United States and China. As of writing, the currency pair is currently trading at 1.1055 and consolidates in the narrow range between 1.1053 – 1.1061.

As we know, the pair had closed above 1.1097 during the Thursday, canceling the lower highs setup on the daily chart and confirming the bullish reversal. The breakout was short-lived because the currency pair fell from 1.1110 to 1.1040 during the U.S. trading session in the wake of the Nonfarm Payrolls figure.

At the fed front, the traders priced out chances of 25-basis-points rate cut by the Federal Reserve rate cut in 2020 after the release of the upbeat United States employment report. While on the U.S. dollar front, the greenback may remain in buying mainly due to upbeat payrolls data and trade tensions.

The data released during the weekend showed China’s exports to the U.S. dropped by 23% in November, the most significant monthly decline since February. 

The depressing figures may convince the United States President Donald Trump that his trade war is creating desired results, and he will likely move forward with a tariff spike on $160 billion of Chinese goods.

At the Sino-US front, the tensions regarding the United States and China intensified trade war will likely keep the shared currency under pressure. Ultimately, the trade fears have pushed Germany, the Eurozone’s largest economy.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.093
  • S2 1.1
  • S1 1.1031

Pivot Point 1.107

  • R1 1.1101
  • R2 1.1141
  • R3 1.1211

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD has disappointed in its first test of the 5-month downtrend at 1.1113. The EUR/USD is trending lower but has not gained any support until now. The EUR/USD has next support near 61.8% Fibonacci support level of 1.1040.  

While the resistance stays around 1.1070, and it’s strictly followed by the 1.1075 horizontal resistance mark. Considering the recent crossover on MACD, the pair may trade bearish below the 1.1070 level today. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

 The GBP/USD currency pair is flashing green and representing 0.10% gains on the day in the wake of weekend polls. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3146 and consolidates in the range of 1.3133 – 1.3151. 

The market traders seem very careful to continue the recent bullish streak beyond the 7-month high ahead of the snap December election in the United Kingdom.

Moreover, the weekend survey indicates that the ruling Conservative Party continues to maintain top position across all major surveys. However, the opposition Labour Party seems to cut the lead as far as data from ComRes and Deltapoll are concerned. 

The fresh news from the U.K. politics shows that the Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson agrees that there will be insignificant checks between the U.K. and Northern Ireland. The United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johson has been criticized many times for not coming in the General debates. Still, the recent one on Channel 4 looks to be suitable for the Tories. 

At the Sino-US front, the United States (U.S.) did not reduce the scope of fresh tariffs on Chinese goods that are up for December 15. The same thing keeps market players under pressure because phase-one talks are yet to provide any strong development.

The traders will keep their eyes on Thursday’s election, as well as monthly figures of Manufacturing Production, Industrial Production, and Gross Domestic Product will likely offer fresh direction to the cable pair.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.3004
  • S2 1.3069
  • S1 1.3103

Pivot Point 1.3134

  • R1 1.3168
  • R2 1.32
  • R3 1.3265

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On the technical side, the prices need to cross May month high near 1.3180 to target 1.3200 and 1.3270 figures to the north, declining to do so highlights Wednesday’s top surrounding 1.3120 as immediate support.

In the daily timeframe, the GBP/USD has an upward crossover on MACD. Lastly, the three white candles on the daily timeframe are suggesting bullish bias among traders. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair flashing red and found near the 108.58, in short, the pair stays moderately changed to Friday range despite the upbeat growth data from Japan. As of writing, the USD/JPY Currency Pair currently trading at 108.58 and consolidates in the narrow range between the 108.55 – 108.67.

The final figures of Japan’s 3rd-quarter (Q3) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased past-0.2% forecast and 0.1% preliminary expectations to +0.4% on QoQ basis. Though the annually figures matched no change expectations of 0.6%. Moreover, Japan’s Trade Balance on Balance of Payment (BOP) Basis for October crossed ¥1.1 B before a whooping ¥254 B.

Markets risk sentiment didn’t succeed in extending the previous gains because the traders look careful ahead of the critical week that includes the crucial central bank meeting and the general election in the United Kingdom. Moreover, recent polls of the British December snap election seem to keep the ruling Conservative Party at the top and decrease fears of the united kingdom political trauma.

At the Sino-US front, the United States tariffs of China are ready to happen on December 15, and the Trump administration wants a phase-one to turn the tariff’s switch off. However, China seems not in a mood to respect the U.S. and trade deal, even after supporting agricultural demand. Looking forward, traders may look for trade/political headlines for fresh impulse.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 107.85
  • S2 108.26
  • S1 108.44

Pivot Point 108.68

  • R1 108.85
  • R2 109.1
  • R3 109.51

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The boosted demand for haven assets and weaker U.S. dollar has driven sharp selling in the USD/JPY currency pair this week. For now, the pair is trading above 108.550, which is working as a double bottom support level.

A bearish breakout of this level can trigger selling until 108.250. The USD/JPY has already completed 81% retracement on three hourly charts, and this level can give some support to USD/JPY. Above this, the pair may find resistance around 108.900. Let’s wait for NFP to determine the further trend of USD/JPY. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 06 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Brace for Nonfarm Payroll! 

The British pound extended its gains on expectations that Brexit uncertainty could be cleared when the ruling Conservative Party wins a majority in the December 12 general election. GBP/USD charged 0.4% higher to 1.3157, a fresh 7-month high. EUR/GBP declined 0.2% to 0.8438, which was last seen in May 2017.

The British pound extended its gains on expectations that Brexit uncertainty could be cleared when the ruling Conservative Party wins a majority in the December 12 general election. GBP/USD charged 0.4% higher to 1.3157, a fresh 7-month high. EUR/GBP declined 0.2% to 0.8438, which was last seen in May 2017.

The British pound extended its gains on expectations that Brexit uncertainty could be cleared when the ruling Conservative Party wins a majority in the December 12 general election. GBP/USD charged 0.4% higher to 1.3157, a fresh 7-month high. EUR/GBP declined 0.2% to 0.8438, which was last seen in May 2017.

The U.K. Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders reported that new car registrations declined 1.3% on year in Nov. (-6.7% in Oct.).

The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1104. The eurozone’s third-quarter GDP growth (final reading) posted at 0.2% on quarter (as expected) and 1.2% on year (as expected). Also, the eurozone’s retail sales declined 0.6% on month in Oct. (-0.5% expected) but rose 1.4% on year (+2.2% expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

  

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair flashing green and found above the November 21 high of 1.1107 despite the depressed German Factory Orders data. As of writing, the currency pair consolidates in the range of 1.1102 – 1.1110. The 14-day relative strength index is also representing bullish sentiment with an above-50 print.

The EUR/USD currency pair will be unlikely to take the significant declines even if the industrial production figures release below expectations. On the other hand, the positive data from the United States (NFP) may stop supporting the bullish technical setup. Changes in industrial production are widely followed as a primary indicator of strength in the manufacturing industry.

Looking forward, the Eurozone’s manufacturing hub Germany release Industrial Production figures for October at 07:00 GMT. The data was expected to show the factory activity increased at a seasonally adjusted rate of 0.1% month-on-month in October, but the actual data fell to -1.7%. Evidently, the EUR/USD is trading under pressure since it’s release. 


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.104
  • S2 1.1068
  • S1 1.1086

Pivot Point 1.1097

  • R1 1.1115
  • R2 1.1126
  • R3 1.1155

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

On Friday, the traders are waiting for the U.S. Non-farm Payroll and Employment change figures to drive the next movement in the market. 

The EUR/USD has next support is near mid-1.1050 and is strictly followed by the 1.1075 horizontal support mark. Considering the recent crossover on MACD, the pair may trade bullish above the 1.1070 level today. On the upper side, resistance stays around 1.1140 and 1.1170. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair hit the seven-month high and found near the 1.3160 ahead of the United States nonfarm payroll. As of writing, the currency pair consolidates in the range of 1.3153-1.3163. 

The recent polls of the United Kingdom December election maintain the ruling Conservative Party on the top place, Prime Minister Boris Johson seems to be stuck recently as the Tory leaders again reject to take part in ITV and BBC debates.

On the other hand, optimism surrounding the trade deal by the UK Chancellor Sajid Javid and ex-Brexit Party members’ who seem to push to vote Tories seem to play their roles. Moreover, the pairs’ bullish sentiment could also be attributed to the greenback weakness. 

Markets seem inactive and cautious because all eyes stay on the Novembers’ employment data from the United States. As a result, the United States’ ten-year treasury yields, and most of the Asian stocks stay modestly changed. 

Ahead of the U.S. jobs report, U.K. Halifax House Prices will likely entertain the traders. Notably, we expect payrolls to increase by a solid 200k in November, which is higher than the previous month’s 128k release. If this happens, the GBP/USD may face headwind to target the next resistance level of 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.3021
  • S2 1.3082
  • S1 1.312

Pivot Point 1.3143

  • R1 1.3181
  • R2 1.3204
  • R3 1.3265

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On the technical side, the prices need to cross May month high near 1.3180 to target 1.3200 and 1.3270 figures to the north, declining to do so highlights Wednesday’s top surrounding 1.3120 as immediate support.

In the daily timeframe, the GBP/USD has an upward crossover on MACD. Lastly, the three white candles on the daily timeframe are suggesting bullish bias among traders. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair flashing red and dropped from the 108.97 to 108.66 overnight, mainly due to the positive headlines which came from the United States and China trade. This helped the United States stocks to survive further gains. 

As of writing, the currency pair is trading near the 108.70 and consolidates in the range of 108.66-108.78. Recently the risk appetite was healthy, and investors were trading based upon the set of positive news during this week from the United States. Although, without any positive response from China, markets were afraid to take any action ahead.

Before the headlines, there were upbeat tones from the United States President Donald Trump, who said that the United States is having meetings and trade talks with China. Something may happen regarding the December 15 tariff, but we are not discussing currently.

As for U.S. yields, the two-year Treasury yields increased slightly from 1.56% to 1.60%, ten-year yields rose from 1.76 to 1.82%. “Markets are pricing a near to zero chance of rate cut at the Fed’s December 11 meeting but a terminal rate of 1.25%.

Looking forward, the trader will keep their eyes on the coming Nonfarm Payrolls. Nov Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to rise 185k and report that the unemployment rate is likely to stay at 3.6%. Average hourly earnings are expected to hold at 3.0%, still down from the 3.2% beforehand.


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 108.12
  • S2 108.46
  • S1 108.61

Pivot Point 108.81

  • R1 108.95
  • R2 109.15
  • R3 109.49

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The boosted demand for haven assets and weaker U.S. dollar has driven sharp selling in the USD/JPY currency pair this week. For now, the pair is trading above 108.550, which is working as a double bottom support level.

A bearish breakout of this level can trigger selling until 108.250. The USD/JPY has already completed 81% retracement on three hourly charts, and this level can give some support to USD/JPY. Above this, the pair may find resistance around 108.900. Let’s wait for NFP to determine the further trend of USD/JPY. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Gold’s Sideway Range Remains Intact – What’s Next to Expect? 

Gold prices mostly traded in sideways trading range of 1,483 – 1,475 due to lack of market moving fundamentals. Recently, the statement by Trump having no-deadline for the US-China agreement drove US Treasury yields lower and helped in tightening the spread between US Govt. Bond yields & Japanese Govt. Bond Yields. This made gold more attractive that day and hence XAU/USD pair suffered.

Gold prices mostly traded in sideways trading range of 1,483 – 1,475 due to lack of market moving fundamentals. Recently, the statement by Trump having no-deadline for the US-China agreement drove US Treasury yields lower and helped in tightening the spread between US Govt. Bond yields & Japanese Govt. Bond Yields. This made gold more attractive that day and hence XAU/USD pair suffered.

Gold prices mostly traded in sideways trading range of 1,483 – 1,475 due to lack of market moving fundamentals. Recently, the statement by Trump having no-deadline for the US-China agreement drove US Treasury yields lower and helped in tightening the spread between US Govt. Bond yields & Japanese Govt. Bond Yields. This made gold more attractive that day and hence XAU/USD pair suffered.

A report from Bloomberg turned the table by saying that US & China were moving closer to a trade deal. According to the report, the US & China were under talks to agree on the amount of tariffs that would be rolled back in Phase-one trade deal despite the raised tensions over Hong Kong issue.

China has been continuously demanding the roll back of US tariffs as part of phase-one trade deal which Trump has denied earlier. Yesterday, reports came in favor of trade-deal raised the hopes for phase-one deal completion by mid-December. This happened despite the increased tensions between US & China after the US legislation to punish Chinese officials over human rights issues in Hong Kong. 

Gold – XAU/USD – Trade Plan

Technically, the precious metal gold is stuck in a narrow trading range of 1,483 – 1,467. On the 4 hour timeframe, gold is forming neutral candles above 1,472 mark which is extending an immediate support to gold today. Bearish breakout of this level can extend sell-off until 1,467 level.


Support Resistance 

1469.34 1481.99

1464.07 1489.37

1451.42 1502.02

Pivot Point 1476.72

The RSI and MACD are holding around 50 and 0 respectively, suggesting neutral sentiment of traders. Looks like, traders are going to keep trading choppy session until the NFP is released tomorrow. 

Consider staying bearish 1,480 and bullish above 1,472 today. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 05 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Get Ready for European GDP! 

On the forex front, the British pound bounced 0.9% to $1.3103, the highest close since May. Polls suggested a majority-win by Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party in the general election to be held next week, which could clear political uncertainty over Brexit. Meanwhile, the Markit UK Services PMI for November (final reading) was released at 49.3 (48.6 expected).

On the forex front, the British pound bounced 0.9% to $1.3103, the highest close since May. Polls suggested a majority-win by Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party in the general election to be held next week, which could clear political uncertainty over Brexit. Meanwhile, the Markit UK Services PMI for November (final reading) was released at 49.3 (48.6 expected).

On the forex front, the British pound bounced 0.9% to $1.3103, the highest close since May. Polls suggested a majority-win by Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party in the general election to be held next week, which could clear political uncertainty over Brexit. Meanwhile, the Markit UK Services PMI for November (final reading) was released at 49.3 (48.6 expected).

The euro closed a few pips lower at $1.1077. The Markit Eurozone Services PMI for November (final reading) posted 51.9 (51.5 expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

  

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair hit the multi-week highs just above the 1.1100 level, mainly due to the poor ADP data result. As of writing, the currency pair currently trading near the 1.1090 and consolidates in the range between 1.1067 – 1.1115.

The ADP showed the US US private sector added ‘just’ 67K jobs during last month, coming in well below estimates whereas the November’s print was also changed a tad lower to 121K (from 125K).

Looking forward, all eyes will be on I.S.M. Manufacturing for November, which is due to come out later in the NA session.

Eventually, the pair has stuck above the critical barrier at 1.1100 due to the continuous weak sentiment in the greenback and the intensified Sino-US trade war. 

IHS Markit reported that today’s data signals 0.1% GDP growth in the last quarter of the year, with manufacturing creating a notable resistance. While today’s figures steadied a bit from the previous reading, the numbers are at the lower end of what’s been reported over the last five years.

On the technical side, the EUR/USD pair is increasing 0.19% at 1.1102 and faces the next hurdle at 1.1161 (200-day SMA), followed by 1.1179 (monthly high Oct.21) and finally 1.1186 (61.8% Fibo of the 2017-2018 rally). On the other hand, a breakdown of 1.1040 (55-day SMA) would target 1.0989 (low monthly Nov.14) en route to 1.0925 (low Sep.3).

Daily Support and Resistance    

  • S3 1.0883
  • S2 1.097
  • S1 1.1025

Pivot Point 1.1057

  • R1 1.1112
  • R2 1.1145
  • R3 1.1232

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The European traders are waiting for the GDP and Retail Sales data, which is due in a couple of hours. With an improved level of uncertainty, the greenback is getting weaker, which is why the EUR/USD is trading steadily in a narrow range. 

The EUR/USD has immediate support is near mid-1.1050 and is closely followed by the 1.1075 horizontal support mark. Considering the recent crossover on MACD, the pau may trade bullish above the 1.1070 level today. 

.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair remains to flash green and hit the seven-months highs near the 1.3100 in the last trading hour. That happens after the incoming polls have hit a majority for the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnsons ruling Conservatives Party at the upcoming snap election, which is listed to occur on December 12.

It should be noted that the bullish sentiment in the pair did not take any effect by the weakness in the greenback, supported by a sharp intraday upward movement in the US Treasury bond yields and some positive trade-related headlines. Moreover, the report came that the United States and China are moving closer to a deal before the December 15 tariff due data.

The GBP/USD currency pair will likely be trying to improve the 1.3100 round-figure marks, although slightly overbought sentiments on intraday charts warrant some attention before initiating any new bullish positions. Market traders now look forward to the US economic docket, highlighting the release of ADP report and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, for some short-term impetus.

Daily Support and Resistance    

  • S3 1.2823
  • S2 1.2876
  • S1 1.2908

Pivot Point 1.2929

  • R1 1.2961
  • R2 1.2982
  • R3 1.3035

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD’s bullish trend continues to dominate the market, and the pair is consistently heading north to test the initial resistance level of 1.3195. A bullish breakout of this mark can drive buying until 1.3335, the double top resistance level. 

In the daily timeframe, the GBP/USD has an upward crossover on MACD. Lastly, the three white candles on the daily timeframe are suggesting bullish bias among traders. 

AUD/USD– Daily Analysis

The AUD/USD pair flashing red and currently trading near the bearish range of 0.6853, mainly due to the intensified trade tension between the United States and China.

As of writing, the currency pair failed to continue its recent bullish streak and unfortunately came under pressure, as we know the pair registering 2-consecutive days of bullish streak in the wake of softer Austrian macro data.

Apart from this, Australia’s GDP growth slowed to 0.4% during the 3-months to September as compared to the previous quarter’s upwardly revised figures of 0.6% and worse than 0.5% expected.

At the Sino-US front, the overall sentiment on the AUD/USD currency pair affected mainly by the United States and China trade deal uncertainty. It should be recalled that the United States President Donald Trump said that the trade deal with China would likely not happen in 2020. As well as, the US US Congress on Tuesday overwhelmingly approved a bill condemning China’s mass detention of ethnic Muslims and called for sanctions against some officials responsible.

The AUD/USD currency pair left its recent bullish moves, and bearish sentiment remained strong so far, despite the weak greenback. Because investors continue to digest the latest trade developments, the greenback buyers remained on the defensive track, avoid a modest uptick in the US US Treasury bond yields.

Daily Support and Resistance    

  • S3 0.6699
  • S2 0.6752
  • S1 0.6785

Pivot Point 0.6806

  • R1 0.6839
  • R2 0.6859
  • R3 0.6913

AUD/USD– Trading Tips

The AUD/USD is trading slightly bearish to achieve 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 0.6820. Over this, the Aussie has produced a series of bearish candles that are suggesting chances of a sell-off in Aussie. 

The AUD/USD may trade with a bullish bias above 0.6820 to aim 0.6850 and 0.6868 while the next support prevails around 0.6800. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Gold Sideways Trend Continued – ADP Fails to Drive Price Action! 

These back to backfires from Trump administration are affecting the credibility of the United States. Trump, on Monday, said that giving U.S. legislation to Hong Kong protestors was not making trade negotiations easy with China. However, he believed that Beijing still wanted a deal with the U.S. Trump added that China was having by far the worst year that hey had in 57 years and was still paying for the trade war. He said that in contrast, the U.S. was doing very well, and it can even do better with a flick of a pen.

These back to backfires from Trump administration are affecting the credibility of the United States. Trump, on Monday, said that giving U.S. legislation to Hong Kong protestors was not making trade negotiations easy with China. However, he believed that Beijing still wanted a deal with the U.S. Trump added that China was having by far the worst year that hey had in 57 years and was still paying for the trade war. He said that in contrast, the U.S. was doing very well, and it can even do better with a flick of a pen.

These back to backfires from Trump administration are affecting the credibility of the United States. Trump, on Monday, said that giving U.S. legislation to Hong Kong protestors was not making trade negotiations easy with China. However, he believed that Beijing still wanted a deal with the U.S. Trump added that China was having by far the worst year that hey had in 57 years and was still paying for the trade war. He said that in contrast, the U.S. was doing very well, and it can even do better with a flick of a pen.

In October, China has reported its slowest growth in the economy in 27 years when trade tensions with the U.S. hit its manufacturing sector. 

On the other hand, the Wards Total Vehicle Sales from the United States on Tuesday was published and showed growth to 17.1M from expected 16.8M and supported the U.S. Dollar.

Gold continues to gain bullish momentum as the U.S. private employers scored fewer jobs in six months in November, falling below economists forecast. The U.S. companies’ payrolls grew by 67K last month as per the ADP National Employment Report. 


XAU/USD – Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance 

1,464.34   1,486.32

1,451.14   1,495.1

1,429.16   1,517

Pivot Point 1,473.12

For the U.S. session, gold is likely to trade in a narrow range of 1,474 – 1,483. The chances of a bearish break below 1,474 remain high. Thus, the second bearish target for gold is likely to be 1,467 today. Good luck! 

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Dramatic Buying In Gold – Trump Inflict Sudden Tariff In Brazil, and Argentina!

On Tuesday, gold prices were trading in a tight area of 1,462 – 1,452 as traders were mostly staying out of the market during the Asian and European sessions. All of a sudden, we noticed a dramatic buying trend in gold, which lead its prices towards 1,472 and even higher. Most of the buying came in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s action of slapping tariffs on Brazil and Argentina.

On Tuesday, gold prices were trading in a tight area of 1,462 – 1,452 as traders were mostly staying out of the market during the Asian and European sessions. All of a sudden, we noticed a dramatic buying trend in gold, which lead its prices towards 1,472 and even higher. Most of the buying came in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s action of slapping tariffs on Brazil and Argentina.

On Tuesday, gold prices were trading in a tight area of 1,462 – 1,452 as traders were mostly staying out of the market during the Asian and European sessions. All of a sudden, we noticed a dramatic buying trend in gold, which lead its prices towards 1,472 and even higher. Most of the buying came in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s action of slapping tariffs on Brazil and Argentina.

Besides this, Construction spending from the United States also dropped to -0.8% from the expectations of 0.3% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The ISM Manufacturing prices showed a minor drop of 46.7 from expected 47.0.

On the trade deal front, the U.S. dollar remained under pressure after the demand of tariffs removal as a part of the phase-one deal by the Chinese government. Trump, in response, told Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, who reported the media that Trump would not back off from tariff hike on December 15 if China would not sign the phase-one deal by then.

Taking a look at the technical side of gold, the metal is trading around 1,474 area with an immediate resistance around 1,476. The precious metal has violated the descending triangle pattern, which is now supporting gold around 1,466 area.



Support Resistance
1,455.8    1,467.31
1,449.15 1,472.18
1,437.64 1,483.69
Pivot Point 1,460.66

On the 240 minutes chart, gold may form three white soldiers pattern, which typically represents chances of a bullish bias among traders. Likewise, the leading indicators, such as RSI and MACD, are also suggesting the odds of a bullish trend in gold. Consider staying bullish above 1,466 and bearish below 1,476/77 today. Good luck!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 04 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eyes on US ADP Report! 

The market trades risk-off sentiment as the U.S. China trade war continues to play. The U.S. House of Representatives passed the Uighur Act, a bill to condemn the Chinese government for its mass internment of Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang. China has denounced the U.S. movement and has warned to take revenge.

The market trades risk-off sentiment as the U.S. China trade war continues to play. The U.S. House of Representatives passed the Uighur Act, a bill to condemn the Chinese government for its mass internment of Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang. China has denounced the U.S. movement and has warned to take revenge.

The market trades risk-off sentiment as the U.S. China trade war continues to play. The U.S. House of Representatives passed the Uighur Act, a bill to condemn the Chinese government for its mass internment of Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang. China has denounced the U.S. movement and has warned to take revenge.

It should be noted that the intensified political tensions will likely complicate the trade deal matters. As a consequence, the shared currency will likely struggle to pick up secure buying.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

  

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair flashing red and representing marginal declines, mainly due to renewed trade tension between the United States and China. As of writing, the currency pair currently trading at 1.1079, having hit a high level of 1.1094 in the overnight trading hours. For now, the breakout may remain elusive if the key U.S. data releases ignore expectations by a big range, which is scheduled to release on the day.

The EUR/USD currency pair surged 0.58% on Monday, confirming its most significant single-day rise since September 17. The sharp rise neutralized the immediate bearish setup but failed to draw stronger buying pressure, leaving the pair below the November 21 high of 1.1097. A close higher is needed to confirm a bullish breakout.

However, that seems complicated due to fading optimism regarding the trade deal between the United States and China. President Donald Trump said that he would likely delay a trade deal with China until after the 2020 presidential election.

The U.S. House of Representatives passed the Uighur Act, a bill to condemn the Chinese government for its mass internment of Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang. China has denounced the U.S. movement and has warned to take revenge.

It should be noted that the intensified political tensions will likely complicate the trade deal matters. As a consequence, the shared currency will likely struggle to pick up strong buying.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.0883
  • S2 1.097
  • S1 1.1025

Pivot Point 1.1057

  • R1 1.1112
  • R2 1.1145
  • R3 1.1232

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

With an increased level of uncertainty, the dollar is getting weaker, which is why the EUR/USD is on hold despite entering the overbought zone. At the moment, the pair is holding right below a strong triple top resistance level of 1.1090, having formed a series of bullish and bearish candles. 

Below this level, we can expect a slight retracement in the EUR/USD until 1.1060 and 1.1038. Conversely, the bullish breakout can lead EUR/USD prices towards 1.1120.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair hit the 6-week high and taking rounds to 1.3000 on the day, mainly due to recent polls raid chances of the ruling Conservatives Partys victory in December snap election. As of writing, the cable currency pair is currently trading at 1.2994 and consolidates in the range of 1.2992-1.3004 ahead of key data.

However, the recent polls that showed the reducing lead of the Tories against the opposition Labour Party, the recent survey from the YouGov and Kantar signal increased the popularity of the Converaitce Party. 

At the Sino-US front, the chances of the United States and China phase-one trade deal getting reduce day by day. The United States President recently warned the deal might happen till late-2020 while the U.S. House announced sanctions on the senior Chinese diplomats.

Additionally, the Independent’s news that Hundreds of protesters march to Buckingham Palace over the U.S. President Trump NHS fears might have exerted additional pressure on the trading sentiment. As a result, stocks in Asia and S&P 500 Futures keep in the red zone.

Today, the traders are preparing for the key U.K. Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), anticipated to continue unchanged at 48.6, as well as the U.S. Markit Services PMI and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. Whereas the U.S. Markit data could reprint 51.6 figure, it’s ISM counterpart might decline to 54.5 from 54.7. Moreover, the US ADP Employment Change, forecast 140K against 125K prior, will likely offer additional pressure on market watchers.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2823
  • S2 1.2876
  • S1 1.2908

Pivot Point 1.2929

  • R1 1.2961
  • R2 1.2982
  • R3 1.3035

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading outside of the normal trading range, which was extending resistance around 1.2956. Now the same level is likely to work as a support. Traders may look for bearish retracement below 1.3000 psychological trading levels, but later, buying can be seen above 1.2965.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair came under pressure and hit the multi-day low of 108.65, mainly due to fading optimism of the United States and China trade deal, as in result kept the JPY strong in the wake of risk-off sentiment. As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair consolidates in the range between the 108.48 – 108.67.

Looking forward, Japan’s Jibun Bank Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for November, expected 50.4 against 49.7, is likely to offer fresh direction to the pair during initial Tokyo open. However, the trader’s eyes will be on this week’s U.S. employment data and trade war headlines for fresh impulse.

Because of the lack of major catalysts from Japan, Friday’s key monthly jobs report from the U.S. is now getting more attention. As a consequence, today’s ADP Employment Change for November, forecast 140K against 125K earlier, will be closely observed for fresh direction. 

Concerning Friday’s employment numbers, the headlines Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) is expected to increase from 128K to 180K, whereas Unemployment Rate and Average Hour Earnings (YoY) will likely remain unchanged at 3.6% and 3.0% respectively.

    

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 107.65
  • S2 108.42
  • S1 108.7

Pivot Point 109.2

  • R1 109.48
  • R2 109.98
  • R3 110.76

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY currency pair flashing green and hit the bullish level of 109.19 from the 5-day low despite the broad risk-off sentiment. As of writing, the pair is consolidating in the range between the 108.95 – 109.20.

At the moment, the USD/JPY is trading with a strong bearish bias, and we may see a bullish reversal in USD/JPY somewhere around 108.800 level today. Below this, the pair can go after 108.500 level.

On the technical side, the USD/JPY has shown a dramatic dip until 108.950, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. The pair has violated the bullish channel, which was supporting the safe-haven pair around 109.350. 

All the best!