Daily FX Brief, October 29 – Major Trade Setups – Trade War Fear Fades!

The risk sentiment remains on today amid faded safe-haven appeal over-optimism from the U.S. China trade deal. Regarding Brexit, Prime Minister Boris Johnson would still need support from the Liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party.

Notably, the 2-parties shown willingness to support a coming election if the Prime Minter Boris Johnson satisfies three conditions, no-deal Brexit is ruled out, no attempt to pass the PM’s Brexit deal before the election, and the election date is stipulated.

At the Fed front, the Federal Reserve is expected to deliver the rate cut by the 25-basis-points. As we are all well aware that this rate cut is counted as a 3rd-consecutive rate cut since July, markets are expecting the rate cut by 21-basis-points at the upcoming meeting on October 30 and the terminal velocity of 1.27% against the 1.88% currently.

The FOMC is expected to communicate patience in deciding future policy movements after the next week’s rate cut as they estimate the impact of the cuts which are delivered already. 

 

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

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GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

Today in the early Asian session, the GBP/USD currency pair found on the bullish track according to the technical indicators. However, the strong bullish trend could remain difficult if the United Kingdom parliament again rejects Prime Minster Boris Jonhson December election proposal.

On the technical side, the 50-day Moving Average has ticked above the 100-day Moving Average, confirming a bullish cross for the first time after February.

The crossover shows a sequence of the recent rally from lows near 1.22, and so does the buyer’s flag marked on the 4-hour chart. As we are well aware that the Europan Union gave a Brexit extension of 3-months and the United Kingdom parliament has rejected Boris Johnson’s offer of snap elections.

The report came from an unknown source that Prime Minister Boris Johnson will request for another vote during the December election Tuesday, there are many possibilities of success as compared to the past way because thereby they just need a simple majority to succeed.

Looking ahead, Prime Minister Boris johnson would still need support from the Liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party. Notably, the two parties shown willingness to support a coming election if the Prime Minter Boris Johnson satisfies three conditions: no-deal Brexit is ruled out, there are no attempts to pass the PM’s Brexit deal before the election, and the election date is stipulated.

On the other hand, the United Kingdom housing prices, Consumer Credit, Money Supply, and Mortgage Approvals are scheduled to release during the European trading hours. Across the pond, the eyes will be on the U.S. Consumer Confidence data and Pending Home Sales. 

The GBP may challenge recent highs above 1.30, as hinted by technical studies if the Europan Parliament allows an early election. Notably, If the vote fails, then GBP could drop below support at 1.2788.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2727

S2 1.2789

S1 1.2826

Pivot Point 1.2851

R1 1.2888

R2 1.2914

R3 1.2976

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.2855 area, after gaining support at 1.2830. On Tuesday, the cable continues to trade choppy from 1.2950 – 1.2785. On the 4-hour chart, the bearish engulfing pattern is anticipated to hold the GBP/USD prices towards 1.2785 area today. 

The technical indicators such as the MACD and RSI are proposing neutral bias for the GBP/USD. Consider staying bullish above 1.2785 and bearish blow the same area to capture 30 pips on either side. 

 

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USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair consolidates in the narrow range of 108.70 and 108.75, which is the strongest part of overnight trade until New York traders stepped in. This initiated a squeeze to as high as 109.04 3-months high, mainly due to the rise in the U.S. Treasury yields and certainty surrounding the United States and China trade relations.

The USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 108.98, flashing green on the day, having examined the 200-day M.A. line of 108.05 in the early Asian trading hours. 

President Donald Trump has fueled the market expectations by announcing that the United States is ahead of schedule to sign the first round of the United States and China trade deal ahead of when Xi and Trump are ready to meet in Chile next month. Moreover, the Chinese official said that most main parts of the deal basically completed already.

At the data front, the United States’ two-year Treasury yields rose from 1.63% to 1.67% – a one-month high, before steadying at 1.64%. The 10-year yield rose from 1.80% to 1.85%. United States benchmarks were also supported by the risk-on sentiment, with a fresh all-time closing high for the S&P 500, weighing on the Yen. 

The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to deliver the rate cut by the 25-basis-points, as we all well aware that this rate cut is counted as a 3rd-consecutive rate cut since July while markets are expecting the rate cut by 21-basis-points at the upcoming meeting on October 30 and the terminal velocity of 1.27% against the 1.88% currently.

The FOMC is expected to communicate patience in deciding future policy movements after the next week’s rate cut as they estimate the impact of the cuts which are delivered already.      


Daily Support and Resistance

S3 108.13

S2 108.52

S1 108.75

Pivot Point 108.9

R1 109.13

R2 109.28

R3 109.66

 USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY currency pair has already violated the sideways trading range to hit our suggested target of 108.950 area. For now, the 108.800 level is likely to extend solid support to the USD/JPY currency pair. 

With the bullish breakout of the 108.800 level, the USD/JPY is expected to trade until 109.355 while the MACD and RSI are also supporting the bullish bias in the USD/JPY currency pair today.   

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EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

During the Asian session, the EUR/USD currency pair consolidates in the narrow range around 1.100. However, during the Monday trading session, the couple was found on the bullish track and created a bullish inside day candlestick pattern, but the bullish moves could be capped due to hawkish expectation regarding the Federal Reserve rate cut and increase in the U.S. Treasury yields.

The EUR/USD currency pair closed at 0.19% up yesterday. Moreover, the bullish and bearish levels fell in Fridays trading range. As we know, the shared currency created a bullish inside day candle, which was showing by the chart.

The candlestick pattern arrangement is biased bullish. Although, the bullish trend in the pair could be reduced or continue to difficult because the Federal Reserve is expected to deliver the rate cut by the 25-basis-points during the Wednesday and lessen the need for an additional rate cut.

Therefore, heading toward the Federal Reserve rate cut decision, the United States Treasury yields could increase, keeping the greenback better buying. Notably, the ten-year yield has already increased by 14-basis-points, since the last 3-days

As of writing, the Treasury yield is found at 1.85%, and the EUR/USD currency pair is trading mostly flat on the day near 1.11.

On the other hand, the EUR currency may take hints from the German Bundesbank President Weidmann’s speech, which is scheduled to deliver at 09:50 GMT and the U.S. housing data and consumer confidence number expected to release at 14:00 GMT.

Daily Support and Resistance    

S3 1.1045

S2 1.107

S1 1.1085

Pivot Point 1.1096

R1 1.1111

R2 1.1121

R3 1.1147

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

As discussed before, the EUR/USD is trading below 1.1100 support becomes resistance area. Overall, the trend in the EUR/USD remains bearish below 1.1100, as we can also notice the leading indicators such as MACD and RSI. 

On the lower side, the EUR/USD may find support at 1.1065, and the violation of this level could extend sell-off until the 1.1020 area. On the upperside, the resistance prevails at 1.1115. A bullish breakout of 1.1115 can lead to 1.1160. Let’s for selling trades below 1.1110 today.