Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 17 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – BOE Policy In Limelight! 

On the news front, the eyes will remain on the U.K. Monetary Policy reports due during the late European hours. BOE isn’t expected to change the rates, and it may keep them at 0.10%. However, it will be essential to see MPC Official Bank Rate Votes. Besides, the European Final CPI data will remain in focus today. During the U.S. session, the Unemployment Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index will be the main highlight to drive further market movement.

 

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.21988 after placing a high of 1.22121 and a low of 1.21450. EUR/USD pair extended its gains and rose for 3rd consecutive day on Wednesday to reach its highest since April 2018.

EUR/USD pair broke above 1.22 level mainly because of the strong PMIs on Wednesday and the U.S. dollar weakness. On the data front, at 13:15 GMT, the French Flash Services PMI for December raised to 49.2 against the expected 39.9 and supported Euro. The French Flash Manufacturing PMI in December also raised to 51.1 against the estimated 50.0 and supported Euro. 

At 13:30 GMT, the German Flash Manufacturing PMI in December surged to 58.6 against the forecasted 56.4 and supported Euro. The German Flash Services PMI also advanced to 47.7 against the expected 44.1 and supported Euro. At 14:00 GMT, the Flash manufacturing PMI from Eurozone raised to 55.5 against the forecasted 53.0 and supported Euro. The Flash Services PMI in December from the whole bloc also raised to 47.3 from the expected 41.9 and supported Euro. At 15:00 GMT, the Trade Balance from Eurozone for October came in greater than expected 22.1B as 25,9B and supported Euro.

The manufacturing and services sector in Eurozone advanced and showed growth in December that supported the single currency Euro and added in the daily gains of the EUR/USD pair. From the U.S. side, at 18:30 GMT, the Core Retail Sales for November declined to -0.9% against the projected 0.1% and weighed on the U.S. dollar and supported EUR/USD gains. For November, the Retail Sales also declined to -1.1% against the projected -0.3% and weighed on the U.S. dollar and added in the EUR/USD pair. AT 19:45 GMT, the Flash manufacturing PMI for December rose to56.5 against the projected 55.9 and supported the U.S. dollar, and capped further gains in EUR/USD pair. 

The Flash Services PMI for December declined to 55.3 against the projected 55.7 and weighed on the U.S. dollar and supported momentum upward in EUR/USD pair. At 20:00 GMT, the Business Inventories for October rose to 0.7% against the projected 0.6%and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The NAHB Housing Market Index also declined to 86 against the projected 88 and weighed on the U.S. dollar, and added additional EUR/USD pair gains.

Apart from strong PMI figures, the latest news that Moderna’s vaccine was also up to getting emergency use authorization from the US FDA by the end of this week. This vaccine will be the second vaccine after Pfizer’s drug was approved last week and is currently being used on people. This news added in the risk sentiment and supported the risk perceived EUR/USD pair.

Furthermore, the Brexit hopes also raised on Wednesday and supported the single currency Euro after E.U.’s chief negotiator explained that she could not say if there will be a trade deal with Britain, but there had been progressing. The next few days would be critical. These developments also added to the upward trend of the EUR/USD pair on Wednesday.

Moreover, the Federal Reserve concluded its two-day meeting on Wednesday and decided to keep its interest rates at the same level until the inflation reaches its target. However, it decided to extend its Q.E. program that weighed on the U.S. dollar and supported the EUR/USD pair’s upward trend.


Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.2126      1.2175

1.2077      1.2197

1.2099      1.2224

Pivot point: 1.2148

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD bullish bias continues to dominate the market as it’s trading at 1.2225. On the higher side, the EUR/USD may target the 1.2250 level and 1.2282 resistance areas. The direct currency pair may find support at 1.2175, which is extended by a double top resistance, which now is working as a support. The MACD and RSI are supporting bullish bias along with the 50 periods EMA. We can expect a continuation of a bullish trend in the EUR/USD today.


GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

 The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.35083 after placing a high of 1.35543 and a low of 1.34340. GBP/USD pair extended its gains on Wednesday and rose to its highest level since May 2018. The British Pound pared gains on Wednesday against the U.S. dollar as reports suggested that U.K. and E.U. were close to a breakthrough on a key sticking point amid the ongoing talks. The President of European Commission Ursula von der Leyen said that there was a narrow path to an agreement on a post-Brexit trade deal with the U.K.

The U.K. acknowledged that some progress had been made but continued to suggest a no-deal was most likely outcome as significant differences remain. Reports suggested that progress has been made over the level playing rules, but differences remain over the fisheries issue, as fishing quotas remain a challenge in negotiations.

However, the U.K. has softened its tone on fisheries in a bid to get a deal over the line. Britain ditched the demands for fishing vessels operating under the U.K. flag to be majority British-owned in the post Brexit era. Whereas PM Boris Johnson remained harsh in his speech on Wednesday and said that the E.U. should realize that the U.K. has a right to take control over its land and waters like every other country.

The hopes for the Brexit trade deal increased as the recent progress on talks came as both sides were coming under increasing pressure to secure a deal before the transition period on December 31. These hopes kept the British Pound supported and GBP/USD pair higher.

On the data front, at 12:00 GMT, the Consumer Price Index from the U.K. for November fell short of expectations of 0.6% and came in as 0.3% that weighed on the British Pound. In November, the Core CPI also fell to 1.1% against the expectations of 1.4% and weighed on Sterling. The RPI of the year from the U.K. for November also declined to 0.9% against the forecasted 1.3% and weighed heavily on GBP. At 12:02 GMT, the PPI Input from the U.K. declined to 0.2% from the expected 0.4% in November and weighed on the British Pound. The PPI Output, however, remained flat with the expectations of 0.2%. At 14:30 GMT, the Flash manufacturing PMI in December from Great Britain raised to 57.3 against the projected 55.9 and supported British Pound and added GBP/USD pair gains. The Flash Services PMI, however, declined to 49.9 against the forecasted 50.5 in December and weighed on Sterling. The Housing Price Index for October advanced to 5.4% against the estimated 5.1% and supported British Pound. 

Most of the data came in against the British Pound; however, the currency pair GBP/USD remains on the upside over the latest Brexit optimism.

From the U.S. side, at 18:30 GMT, the Core Retail Sales for November fell to -0.9% against the anticipated 0.1% and weighed on the U.S. dollar and supported GBP/USD pair. The Retail Sales for November also fell to -1.1% against the anticipated -0.3% and weighed on the U.S. dollar and added gains in GBP/USD pair. 

At 19:45 GMT, the Flash manufacturing PMI for December surged to56.5 against the anticipated 55.9 and supported the U.S. dollar. The Flash Services PMI for December fell to 55.3 against the anticipated 55.7 and weighed on the U.S. dollar. At 20:00 GMT, the Business Inventories for October surged to 0.7% against the anticipated 0.6%and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The NAHB Housing Market Index also fell to 86 against the anticipated 88 and weighed on the U.S. dollar and added further gains in GBP/USD pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3338      1.3258

1.3213      1.3595

1.3147      1.3719

Pivot point: 1.3404

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

Since the Cable is also a direct currency pair and the dollar is getting weaker, we can expect a continuation of an upward trend in the GBP/USD pair. The GBP/USD pair may find resistance at 1.3600 and 1.3706 level, while the support level stays at 1.3470 marks. The MACD and EMA are supporting the bullish trend in the Cable. On the 4 hour timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has formed an upward channel, which may keep pushing the Sterling further higher today. The buying trend can be seen over 1.3470 level until 1.3600 and 1.3706 level.


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 103.419 after placing a high of 103.915 and a low of 103.259. The USD/JPY pair extended its losses on Wednesday and reached its lowest since November 9. The USD/JPY pair dropped on Wednesday amid the U.S. dollar weakness due to rising stimulus hopes and growing vaccine optimism. The U.S. lawmakers made progress toward a coronavirus relief package that added weight on the U.S. dollar and dragged the USD/JPY pair on the downside. The U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies was down on Wednesday to 0.1% at 90.317. 

The bipartisan group had originally proposed a $908 billion stimulus bill, but it has now been split into two bills. The first bill includes a $748 billion proposal, including aid for vaccine distribution and unemployment benefits. This bill has gained traction and is expected to pass by Congress by the end of the week. The second bill that is worth $160 billion for local and state government support along with the temporary coronavirus liability protection that appears to be having more difficulty in gathering the necessary support from Congress.

On the data front, at 04:50 GMT, the Trade Balance from Japan for November surged to 0.57T against the forecasted 0.54T and supported the Japanese Yen that added further losses in the USD/JPY pair. At 05:30 GMT, the Flash Manufacturing PMI from Japan in December also raised to 49.7 against the forecasted 48.9 and supported the Japanese Yen that added additional losses in USD/JPY pair.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve kept its interest rates unchanged on Wednesday and said that they would remain the same until the inflation reaches 2-3%. However, Federal Reserve also announces to purchase at least $120 Billion of U.S. treasuries and mortgage-backed securities each month until employment gets better. This way to support the U.S. economy by increasing bond purchases also weighed on the U.S. dollar and dragged the USD/JPY pair on the downside.

From the U.S. side, at 02:00 GMT, the TIC Long-Term Purchases dropped to 51.9B against the forecasted 75.5 B and weighed on the U.S. dollar, and supported the downside movement in the USD/JPY pair. At 18:30 GMT, the Core Retail Sales for November decreased to -0.9% against the estimated 0.1% and weighed on the U.S. dollar and weighed on the USD/JPY pair. The Retail Sales for November also decreased to -1.1% against the estimated -0.3% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. AT 19:45 GMT, the Flash manufacturing PMI for December advanced to56.5 against the estimated 55.9 and supported the U.S. dollar. 

The Flash Services PMI for December decreased to 55.3 against the estimated 55.7 and weighed on the U.S. dollar and dragged the USD/JPY pair on the downside. At 20:00 GMT, the Business Inventories for October advanced to 0.7% against the estimated 0.6%and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The NAHB Housing Market Index also decreased to 86 against the estimated 88 and weighed on the U.S. dollar and added further losses in the USD/JPY pair.

Another factor included in the losses of the USD/JPY pair was the increasing risk sentiment of the market from another coronavirus vaccine. Moderna has also applied for emergency use authorization of its vaccine from the U.S. regulatory FDA that is expected to approve within a week. Moderna will become the second company to get authorization from the U.S. regulator after Pfizer got approval last week and is currently being roll-out. This latest news added in the risk sentiment and weighed on the safe-haven Japanese Yen that ultimately weighed on the USD/JPY pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

103.47      104.02

103.25      104.37

102.91      104.58

Pivot point: 103.81

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY extends it’s selling trend as the pair trades at 103.250. The safe-haven currency pair is trading below an immediate support level of 103.250, and the closing of candles below this level will confirm the bearish breakout. If this happens, we may have an opportunity to short the USD/JPY pair today. Bearish bias seems solid as the MACD is forming histograms below 0, and the 50 periods EMA is holding around 103.860 level, suggesting strong odds of selling. On the lower side, the USD/JPY pair may find next support at the 102.900 level. Let’s consider taking a selling trade below 103.650 today. Good luck! 

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Dec 17 – BTC Reaches a New ATH at $22k; XRP Skyrockets as it Breaks its Descending Channel

The cryptocurrency sector experienced an overall major gain as Bitcoin reached its new all-time high. Bitcoin is currently trading for $22.095, representing an increase of 13.82% compared to yesterday’s value. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has increased by 9.69% on the day, while XRP managed to gain a whopping 23.35%.

 Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

Puriever gained 238.59% in the past 24 hours, making it the most prominent daily crypto gainer by far. It is followed by Combine.finance’s 159.58% and Amun Bitcoin 3x Daily Shorts’ 146.94% gain. On the other hand, BigGame lost 82.62%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by GNY’s loss of 75,95% and Hush’s loss of 61.30%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s market dominance has moved up over a whole percent since our last report, with its value currently being 65%. This value represents a 1.1% difference to the upside than the value it had when we last reported.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The cryptocurrency sector capitalization has increased drastically since we last reported, with its current value being $634.94 billion. This represents a whopping $70.94 billion increase when compared to our previous report.

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What happened in the past 24 hours?

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Technical analysis

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin has had quite an amazing day, as its price skyrocketed to new all-time highs. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap reached price discovery mode as its price topped at $22,400. While there are no set resistance levels at the moment, we can use Fib retracement extensions to determine where they could form.

At the moment, the Fib extensions sitting at $21,350 and $22,055 are the best contenders to act as support levels to Bitcoin’s eventual downturn.


BTC/USD 4-hour chart

Bitcoin’s daily and weekly overview are fully bullish, while its 4-hour and monthly time-frames show slight neutrality on top of the overall bullishness.

BTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Price is far above both its 50-period and its 21-period EMA
  • Price slightly above its top Bollinger band
  • RSI is heavily overbought (86.76)
  • Volume is far higher than its average levels
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $24,315                                 1: $22,054

2: $24,700                                 2: $21,350

3: $25,511                                  3: $19,918

Ethereum

Ethereum followed the extremely bullish sentiment caused by Bitcoin’s push, reaching a price of $625 before hitting a sell wall. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap has held these levels, and is currently consolidating above the $632 level.

An important thing to note is that, while Bitcoin has reached its ATH, Ethereum is very far from it. Ethereum might be a good value investment simply due to its potential to possibly reach towards higher levels on account of pushing towards its ATH.

ETH/USD 4-hour Chart

While Ethereum shows overall bullish sentiment on all time-frames, every time-frame except the monthly time-frame shows slight neutrality.

ETH/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical Factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Price is far above both its 50-period and its 21-period EMAs
  • Price is at its top Bollinger band
  • RSI is heavily overbought (78.20)
  • Volume is much higher than its weekly average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $675                                     1: $636.5

2: $738.5                                  2: $632 

3: $817.5                                   3: $600

Ripple

Unlike most days where XRP is having larger moves to the downside and smaller moves to the upside compared to BTC and ETH, the roles are reversed this time. The fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap has gained almost 25% on the day as its price bounced off of the lower line of the descending channel, and pushed towards the upside, reaching as high as $0.583 before starting its consolidation.

XRP is now trading within a range, bound by the $0.57 resistance and $0.543 support levels.


XRP/USD 4-hour Chart

XRP has changed its sentiment to overall bullishness, with its monthly time-frame showing full tilt towards the buy-side, and the rest of the time-frames showing some neutrality or hints of bearishness remaining.

XRP/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Its price is currently above both its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
  • Price slightly below its top Bollinger band
  • RSI is nearing the overbought territory (61.30)
  • Volume is well above its average level
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $0.57                                     1: $0.543

2: $0.597                                    2: $0.5

3: $0.63                                     3: $0.475

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Dec 16 – XRP Getting Crushed; BTC and ETH Stuck within a Range

The cryptocurrency sector was mostly stable today as Bitcoin kept within its trading range. Bitcoin is currently trading for $19,393, representing an increase of 1.13% compared to yesterday’s value. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has increased by 0.10% on the day, while XRP managed to lose a whopping 8.56%.

 Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

XcelToken Plus gained 263.82% in the past 24 hours, making it the most prominent daily crypto gainer by far. It is followed by Amun Bitcoin 3x Daily Long’s 161.53% and rbase.finance’s 129.84% gain. On the other hand, Maximine Coin lost 99.42%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by STEM CELL COIN’s loss of 97.69% and Patron’s loss of 89.45%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s market dominance has moved up since our last report, with its value currently being 63.9%. This value represents a 0.4% difference to the upside than the value it had when we last reported.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The cryptocurrency sector capitalization has decreased slightly since we last reported, with its current value being $564.0 billion. This represents a $4.20 billion decrease when compared to our previous report.

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What happened in the past 24 hours?

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Technical analysis

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin has continued trading within a range between $19,100 and $19,570, possibly hitting a wall of profit-taking institutional traders. Despite the overall bullishness of the market, the largest cryptocurrency by market cap failed to break the $19,666 level or even reach it. This is because of the increasing number of BTC Whales (holders of 10,000 to 100,000 Bitcoin) leaving the market and taking profit as the price approaches the $20,000 mark.

The sheer amount of resistance hovering above $19,500 will make it quite hard for Bitcoin bulls to push towards the all-time highs. In case the aforementioned push doesn’t happen, we can expect a possible dip towards $18,000.

BTC/USD 4-hour chart

Bitcoin’s overview on all time-frames is bullish, with its weekly time-frame being the only one completely bullish. The rest of the time-frames are slightly tilted to the neutral side.

BTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Price is above its 50-period and slightly above its 21-period EMA
  • Price is between its middle and top Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (60.06)
  • Volume is average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $19,100                                 1: $18,600

2: $19,666                                 2: $18,190

3: $20,000                                  3: $17,800

Ethereum

Ethereum has hit a sell wall as well, stopping its upward price movement just below $600 for the third time in 3 days. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap is stuck between $581 to the downside and $600 to the upside, which is a very narrow range for long-term trading.

Ethereum will most likely experience a sharp break out of the current range, creating a potential safe trade with set parameters.

ETH/USD 4-hour Chart

Ethereum’s overview on all time-frames is bullish, with its daily time-frame being the only one completely bullish. The rest of the time-frames are slightly tilted to the neutral side.

ETH/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical Factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Price is slightly above its 50-period and at its 21-period EMAs
  • Price is at its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (54.03)
  • Volume is slightly below average when compared to the previous week
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $600                                     1: $581

2: $632                                     2: $565 

3: $636.5                                   3: $545

Ripple

XRP has continued its downturn, this time breaking the crucial $0.475 level. Its price has steadily decreased ever since Dec 1, when it could not break $0.683. This steady descent has created a downtrend, which many analysts think is the death of XRP’s price.

However, there is still hope for XRP. Some analysts believe that this is the 4th of 5 waves in a pattern that XRP started creating on Aug 20 and that the next wave will start an uptrend that will propel its price above $1.

XRP/USD 4-hour Chart

XRP’s longer-term technicals are tilted towards the buy-side, while its short-term technicals are tilted towards the sell-side. While its 4-hour time-frame is completely bearish, its daily overview is slightly more neutral.

XRP/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Its price is currently well below both its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
  • Price is at its bottom Bollinger band
  • RSI is close to the oversold territory (31.25)
  • Volume is well below its average level
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $0.5                                      1: $0.475

2: $0.543                                   2: $0.45

3: $0.57                                    3: $0.425

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Dec 15 – Bitcoin Whales Stopping the Push Towards $20k; XRP on the Downturn

The majority of the cryptocurrency sector ended up being in the slight green since we last reported, with Bitcoin trying to reach the all-time highs (though so-far unsuccessfully). Bitcoin is currently trading for $19,106, representing an increase of 0.15% compared to yesterday’s value. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has decreased by 0.32% on the day, while XRP managed to lose 2.97%.

 Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

Mandi Token gained 175.35% in the past 24 hours, making it the most prominent daily crypto gainer by far. It is followed by yTSLA Finance’s 169.53% and DefHold’s 129.84% gain. On the other hand, DistX lost 98.32%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by AC Index’s loss of 94.05% and YXO’s loss of 43.16%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s market dominance has moved up very slightly since our last report, with its value currently being 63.5%. This value represents a 0.2% difference to the upside compared to the value it had when we last reported.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The cryptocurrency sector capitalization has increased since we last reported, with its current value being $569.80 billion. This represents a $9.01 billion increase when compared to our previous report.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

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_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin had quite an interesting day as it (at one point) tried to push towards the all-time highs, or at least towards its next resistance level (sitting at $19,666). However, the sheer resistance near the $20k level was immense, and the largest cryptocurrency by market cap dipped to its immediate support level ($19,100), which is where it’s at right now.

The data provided by various sources point to Bitcoin whales blocking the way towards and past $20k, despite all the bullish sentiment currently surrounding the cryptocurrency.


BTC/USD 4-hour chart

Bitcoin’s overview on all time-frames is fully bullish, with its monthly time-frame being slightly more tilted to the neutral side than the rest.

BTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Price is above its 50-period and slightly above its 21-period EMA
  • Price is near its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (55.33)
  • Volume is average when compared to the past week
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $19,100                                 1: $18,600

2: $19,666                                 2: $18,190

3: $20,000                                  3: $17,800

Ethereum

Ethereum was in the same boat as Bitcoin for the past couple of days, with its price movement mirroring Bitcoin’s. Ether tried to move towards the $600 mark, but got stopped out just below it, triggering a pullback to its immediate support level ($581). However, its downside is well-guarded, both by the $581 support level and the 4-hour 21-period moving average.

Ethereum will most likely continue mirroring Bitcoin’s moves in the short future, meaning that traders should either focus on trading Bitcoin or pay close attention to its movements while trading Ether.

ETH/USD 4-hour Chart

Ethereum’s overview on all time-frames is fully bullish, with its weekly time-frame being slightly more tilted to the neutral side than the rest.

ETH/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical Factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Price is slightly above both its 50-period and 21-period EMAs
  • Price is near its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (53.74)
  • Volume is slightly below average when compared to the previous week
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $600                                     1: $581

2: $632                                     2: $565 

3: $636.5                                   3: $545

Ripple

XRP is one of the cryptocurrencies that rarely mirrors Bitcoin’s movements, and that was the case in the past 24 hours as well. However, the fact that its price doesn’t mirror the largest cryptocurrency was bad news lately. XRP’s price continued its slow descent, this time breaking the $0.5 mark to the downside. At one point, there was an attempt to regain this level, which got shut down pretty quickly.

While the overall crypto sector is surrounded by bullish sentiment, XRP is looking quite bearish in the short-term. Shorting the fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap can be a valid trading strategy, simply due to its consistency going down in recent days.

XRP/USD 4-hour Chart

XRP’s longer-term technicals are completely bullish, while its daily overview is slightly more tilted towards neutrality. Its 4-hour time-frame, however, is slightly tilted towards the sell-side.

XRP/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Its price is currently below its 50-period EMA and slightly below its 21-period EMA
  • Price is between its middle and bottom Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (37.98)
  • Volume is well below its average level
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $0.5                                      1: $0.475

2: $0.543                                   2: $0.45

3: $0.57                                    3: $0.425

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Dec 14 – BTC and ETH Consolidating After A Bull Rally; XRP Left in the Dust

The majority of the cryptocurrency sector ended up in the green as Bitcoin spent the weekend regaining the value it lost after failing to break its all-time high with confidence. Bitcoin is currently trading for $19,144, representing an increase of 1.69% compared to yesterday’s value. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has increased by 3.61% on the day, while XRP managed to gain 3.77%.

 Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

BDCC Bitica COIN gained 229.29% in the past 24 hours, making it the most prominent daily crypto gainer by far. It is followed by Ethereum Lightning’s 223.18% and Nuggets’ 190.36% gain. On the other hand, rbase.finance lost 72.18%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by COIL’s loss of 48.85% and SBank’s loss of 40.65%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s market dominance has moved up half a percent since we last reported, with its value currently being 63.3%. This value represents a 0.5% difference to the upside compared to the value it had when we last reported.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The cryptocurrency sector capitalization has increased significantly over the weekend, with its current value being $560.79 billion. This represents a $31.22 billion increase when compared to our previous report.

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What happened in the past 24 hours?

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_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin has been on fire this weekend, with its price skyrocketing from its recent lows. The uptrend that started on Dec 11 brought its price from $17,600 all the way up to $19,400 before starting to consolidate. The steep ascending trend it created was unsustainable in the long run, so Bitcoin left it and continued trading sideways just above $19,100. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap is currently fighting for this level, with the previous five 4-hour candles holding above the support.

BTC/USD 4-hour chart

Bitcoin’s daily and monthly technicals show slight signs of neutrality on top of its overall bullishness. On the other hand, its 4-hour and weekly technicals are completely bullish.

BTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Price is above both its 50-period and 21-period EMAs
  • Price is between its middle and top Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (59.17)
  • Volume is slightly below the average level
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $19,100                                 1: $18,600

2: $19,666                                 2: $18,190

3: $20,000                                  3: $17,800

Ethereum

Ethereum has followed Bitcoin’s footsteps and created its own ascending channel, in which it moved from Dec 11 until Dec 13. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap has left this channel and started its own consolidation phase right above the $581 support level.

Ethereum’s moves seem like a mirror to Bitcoin’s moves, with slightly more or less intensity. Traders should be extremely careful of sudden moves Bitcoin can make that could disrupt their Ethereum trades.

ETH/USD 4-hour Chart

Ethereum’s 4-hour, daily, and weekly technicals overall bullish but show signs of neutrality or even some bearish indicators. On the other hand, its monthly technicals are completely tilted towards the buy-side.

ETH/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical Factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Price is above both its 50-period and 21-period EMAs
  • Price is between its middle and top Bollinger band
  • RSI is starting to descend after being close to overbought (58.72)
  • Volume is average when compared to the previous week
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $600                                     1: $581

2: $632                                     2: $565 

3: $636.5                                   3: $545

Ripple

XRP performed much worse than Bitcoin and Ethereum over the weekend, with its short-term outlook being quite bearish. The fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap ended up losing $13.11% of its value week-over-week, with its price currently sitting at the $0.5 level.

XRP is currently fighting to stay above the $0.5 level, with its past four 4-hour candles managing to do this. Traders may be able to catch a trade in either direction when XRP confirms its position above/below $0.5 on increased volume.

XRP/USD 4-hour Chart

XRP’s 4-hour and daily overviews are heavily tilted towards the sell-side but still show some neutral indicators. Its longer-term technicals, though, are completely bullish.

XRP/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Its price is currently below both its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
  • Price is between its middle and bottom Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (37.98)
  • Volume is slightly below the average level
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $0.5435                                 1: $0.5

2: $0.57                                     2: $0.475

3: $0.6                                      3: $0.45

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

BTC/USD Weekly Chart Analysis + Possible Outcomes

In this week’s BTC/USD analysis, we will be taking an in-depth look at the most recent technical formations, as well as look for the possible short-term price outcomes.

Overview

Bitcoin has had quite a volatile week experienced yet another steep decrease in price as a continuation of the bear retracement after the cryptocurrency couldn’t post new all-time highs with confidence. However, the largest cryptocurrency by market cap has recovered from the decline in a matter of days, with its price over $19,000 once again.

While Bitcoin’s fundamentals only grew stronger as more and more institutional investors acknowledge it as a competitor to gold. This trend of large public companies investing in the best-known cryptocurrency has been seen throughout 2020, and many say that this is the sole reason for the current Bitcoin’s run.

Technical factors



Bitcoin is currently in a steep upwards-facing trend, which brought its price from $17,600 all the way to $19,000. While the channel is way too steep to be considered a long-term option, Bitcoin has the option to follow it for a little bit more, possibly riding the way up to the $19,666 major resistance (and a previous all-time high on Bistamp). This will most likely be the pivot point for Bitcoin, which will decide if it will try to tackle the levels above $20,000 or stay below it and seek support near $19,100.

Likely Outcomes

Bitcoin’s currently sending out very bullish signals, but we included a slightly bearish scenario as well, just to make sure all bases are covered.

1: In case Bitcoin heads further up, its price will most likely stop at the major pivot point, which sits at $19,666. This level is the all-time high from 2017 and is a major resistance level. From here, Bitcoin bulls will have to decide whether they will push towards the upside or remain below this level:

  • In case that the price moves further up, its next possible resistance level (there isn’t much resistance above $20,000, so all possible resistance levels will be extensions of the Fib retracements) is most likely to be sitting at around $20,750.
  • In case the price decides to stay below $19,666, we can expect it to move down and look for support at $19,100 or $18,600 levels.

2: If Bitcoin breaks the ascending channel early and pushes towards the downside, its first strong support level is $19,100 (which it will inevitably break if it pushes down and breaks the channel) and then $18,600.

Entering any short trades could be quite risky at the moment due to the bullish momentum Bitcoin has gathered. However, trading above $20,000 is equally as risky as Bitcoin would be entering a zone with no set resistance and support levels. However, entering long traders is certainly a safer option at the moment.

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Dec 11 – Bitcoin Fighting for $18,000; Crypto Market in the Red

The majority of the cryptocurrency sector has ended up being in the red as Bitcoin spent most of the day under the $18,000 level. Bitcoin is currently trading for $17,920, representing a decrease of 2.91% compared to our last report. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has decreased by 4.30% on the day, while XRP managed to lost 2.85%.

 Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

Freedom Reserve gained 950.51% in the past 24 hours, making it the most prominent daily crypto gainer by far. It is followed by LBRY Credits’s 336.6% and Seigniorage Shares’ 117.99% gain. On the other hand, Basis Cash lost 87.95%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by xBTC’s loss of 55.09% and IterationSyndicate’s loss of 44.55%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s market dominance has moved up less than half a percent since we last reported, with its value currently being 62.8%. This value represents a 0.2% difference to the upside compared to the value it had when we last reported.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The cryptocurrency sector capitalization has decreased in the past 24 hours, with its current value being $528.97 46.31 billion. This represents a $17.34 billion decrease when compared to our previous report.

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What happened in the past 24 hours?

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Technical analysis

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin has spent most of the day in a price descent after it failed to break the $18,600 mark. BTC bulls tried to pick the price back up but failed, which has caused another mini-dip, which brought the price as low as $17,721 on Bitstamp. The $17,780 level has proven itself as great support once again, and Bitcoin is now trading in a range between it and $18,190.

Due to the amount of support and resistance levels in a narrow price range Bitcoin currently has, a push towards either side could be a possible safe trade to catch.

BTC/USD 2-hour chart

Bitcoin’s short-term technicals are tilted towards the sell-side but show slight signs of neutrality. Its long-time technicals, however, are completely bullish.

BTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Price is below both its 50-period and 21-period EMAs
  • Price is close to its bottom Bollinger band
  • RSI is dipping towards being oversold (36.77)
  • Volume is slightly above the average level
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $18,190                                 1: $17,780

2: $18,600                                 2: $17,500

3: $18,790                                  3: $17,200

Ethereum

Ethereum has quickly stopped in its tracks towards $600 after hitting a brick wall at $581. The rebound pulled its price back below $565, as well as $545, which it is now fighting for. The fact that Ethereum is in a short-term bear run is confirmed by higher volume candles during price drops than during price spikes.

Our call from yesterday regarding Ethereum’s dip after dropping below $565 turned out as predicted. Traders should pay attention to Bitcoin’s movements and the ascending (red) trend line when trading Etheruem.

ETH/USD 2-hour Chart

Ethereum’s short-term technicals are tilted towards the sell-side but show slight neutral signs. However, its long-time technicals are bullish, with its weekly overview being slightly neutral than its monthly overview.

ETH/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical Factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Price is below both its 50-period and 21-period EMAs
  • Price is slightly above its bottom Bollinger band
  • RSI is dipping towards oversold territory (36.18)
  • Volume is slightly above the average level
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $565                                     1: $545

2: $581                                      2: $525 

3: $600                                      3: $510

Ripple

XRP followed the rest of the crypto sector and made a price dip, which brought its price to the $0.543 level, which held up quite nicely. Its price is now recovering and consolidating between $0.543 and $0.57, with no signs of potential movement to either side.

XRP traders should pay attention to Bitcoin’s price movement, as most cryptocurrencies follow the general market direction it sets.

XRP/USD 2-hour Chart

XRP’s 4-hour and daily overviews show confusing signs, with some indicators being bullish and some bearish. Its long-term technicals are, however, completely bullish.

XRP/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • The price is currently below both its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
  • Price is slightly below its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (41.75)
  • Volume is slightly above the average level
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $0.57                                   1: $0.5435

2: $0.6                                       2: $0.5

3: $0.63                                    3: $0.475

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Dec 10 – Bitcoin Bulls Back in the Game as Sector Recovers From The Dip

The cryptocurrency sector is mostly green as cryptocurrencies took the day to recover from the sudden drop that occurred on Dec 8. Bitcoin is currently trading for $18,411, representing an increase of 1.25% compared to our last report. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has increased by 3.37% on the day, while XRP managed to gain 4.66%.

 Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

WinCash gained 207.65% in the past 24 hours, making it the most prominent daily crypto gainer by far. It is followed by Nyan V2’s 181.02% and Pamp Network’s 172.94% gain. On the other hand, DMme lost 68.63%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by ALL BEST ICO’s loss of 64.69% and Moonday Finance’s loss of 54.48%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s market dominance has moved to the downside just under half a percent since we last reported, with its value currently being 62.6%. This value represents a 0.4% difference to the downside compared to the value it had when we last reported.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The cryptocurrency sector capitalization has increased significantly in the past 24 hours, with its current value being $546.31 billion. This represents a $10.23 billion increase when compared to our previous report.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

_______________________________________________________________________

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

Bitcoin has spent the day slowly moving up after a sharp price descent, which brought it to $18,000. After establishing itself above $18,190, Bitcoin even tried to push further up above $18,600 but failed almost instantly, making its price go back to previous levels.

We want to point out (once again) Micheal van de Poppe’s call of a large CME gap looming between $18,275 and $16,995.

Due to the amount of support/resistance levels Bitcoin currently has, any push towards either the upside or downside could be a possible safe trade in the same direction.

BTC/USD 2-hour chart

Bitcoin’s daily, weekly, and monthly technicals are completely tilted towards the buy-side and show no bearish signs. Its 4-hour overview, however, is completely bearish.

BTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Price is below both its 50-period and 21-period EMAs
  • Price is between its middle and bottom Bollinger band
  • RSI is has recovered from being oversold (43.38)
  • Volume is slightly above average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $18,600                                 1: $18,190

2: $18,790                                 2: $17,780

3: $19,000                                  3: $17,200

Ethereum

Ethereum has not only recovered from its drop to $530, where it hit the ascending (red) trend line but pushed back towards $600. Even though the price is not yet ready to tackle this resistance level, it has made an attempt to break the $581 level but failed and returned to the $565 one.

Ethereum traders should pay attention to whether the cryptocurrency will end up above or below $565, which may be an indicator of its short-term movement. Traders should also pay attention to Bitcoin’s movement whenever taking a trade with Ethereum.

ETH/USD 2-hour Chart

Ethereum’s daily and monthly technicals are completely tilted towards the buy-side and show no signs of bearishness. However, its 4-hour overview is completely bearish, while its weekly overview is bullish but shows slight neutrality as well.

ETH/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical Factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Price is below both its 50-period and 21-period EMAs
  • Price is slightly below its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI has recovered from being in the oversold territory (42.83)
  • Volume is slightly above average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $565                                     1: $550

2: $581                                      2: $525 

3: $600                                      3: $510

Ripple

XRP made a sharp (to the upside) price recovery as well, with its price pushing past $0.5435, as well as its $0.57 resistance (now support) levels. The fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap even tried to break $0.6 but got shut down swiftly. Its price is now consolidating slightly above $0.57 and showing no signs of potential dips.

XRP traders (finally) have the option to trade this cryptocurrency after several days of close-to-no volatility. Keeping track of Bitcoin’s movements when trading XRP is a must, as any change in Bitcoin’s price could change the outlook of the market as a whole.

XRP/USD 2-hour Chart

XRP’s daily, weekly, as well as monthly technicals, are completely tilted towards the buy-side and show no signs of neutrality or bearishness. Its 4-hour overview, on the other hand, is bearish with slight signs of neutrality.

XRP/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • The price is currently slightly below both its 50-period EMA, as well as its 21-period EMA
  • Price is slightly below its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral and recovered from being oversold (47.26)
  • Volume is slightly above average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $0.57                                   1: $0.5435

2: $0.6                                       2: $0.5

3: $0.63                                    3: $0.475

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 09 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Brace for BOC Policy! 

On the news front, the economic calendar is filled with the Bank of Canada’s policy rate. The BOC is expected to keep the Overnight Rate rate unchanged at 0.25%, which is likely to drive no major change in the Loonie. The BOC Rate Statement will be worth watching to determine further moves in CAD.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD closed at 1.21044 after placing a high of 1.21337 and a low of 1.20952. EUR/USD pair fell on Tuesday for the third consecutive session but remained under consolidation in a tight range. The EUR/USD pair avoided major losses as the Euro remained appealing due to broad weakness in the U.S. dollar. The U.S. Dollar Index fell to its two and a half years lowest level on Tuesday and capped further losses in the EUR/USD pair. The U.S. dollar was weak on Tuesday as the country crossed the threshold of 15 million coronavirus cases, which was the world’s highest total. American hospitals braced to ration care amid staff shortages and warned about the rampant spread of the disease.

Pennsylvania’s governor Tom Wolf said that the coronavirus was running extensively throughout the state and could soon reach the level where hospitals will begin turning away patients. He also said that additional pandemic restrictions might be on controlling the spread of the virus.

Meanwhile, the talks for the second round of coronavirus relief stimulus between Democrats and the Republicans and the agreement of both parties over the bipartisan proposal of a $908 billion stimulus package also weighed on the U.S. dollar. Due to stimulus hopes and the rising number of coronavirus cases, the weak U.S. dollar capped further downside in the EUR/USD pair on Tuesday.

On the data front, at 11:30 GMT, the French Final Private Payrolls for the quarter raised to 1.6% against the expected -1.0% and supported the single currency Euro. At 12:45 GMT, the French Trade Balance showed a deficit of -4.8B against the expected -5.5B and supported Euro. At 15:00 GMT, the quarter raised the Final Employment Change to 1.0% against the forecasted 0.9% and supported Euro. The Revised GDP for the quarter dropped to 12.5% against the expected 12.6% and weighed on Euro. The ZEW Economic Sentiment raised in December to 54.4 against the estimated 37.5 and supported Euro. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment also surged to 55.0 from the projected 45.9 and supported Euro.

From the U.S. side, at 01:00 GMT, the Consumer Credit for October fell to 7.2B against the projected 17.6B and weighed on the U.S. dollar and capped further losses in EUR/USD pair. At 16:00 GMT, the NFIB Business Index fell to 101.4 against the estimated 102.6 in November and weighed on the U.S. dollar that capped further losses in the EUR/USD pair.

At 18:30 GMT, the Revised Nonfarm Productivity for the quarter declined to 4.6% against the expected 4.9% and supported the U.S. dollar and supported the downward momentum in EUR/USD pair. The Revised Unit Labor Costs for the quarter came in as -6.6% against the estimated -8.9% and supported the U.S. dollar. 

At 20:00 GMT, the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism came in as 49.0 in December compared to the previous 50.0.

Moreover, the Euro remained comparatively appealing due to a more optimistic outlook of the Eurozone’s economy than the U.S. that capped further losses in the EUR/USD pair. The ECB’s policy decision is scheduled for Thursday. If the ECB takes a more hawkish tone, then Euro will rise and vice versa.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.2086        1.2125

1.2071       1.2149

1.2046       1.2165

Pivot point: 1.2110

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is trading at 1.2127 level, finding an immediate resistance at 1.2160 and 1.2196 level along with a support level of 1.2085. Closing of candles underneath the 1.2103 level can send the EUR/USD pair further lower until 1.2080 and 1.2040. However, the focus is likely to stay on the German Trade Balance, which is due during the European session. Choppy session expected until economic figures show major deviations. The MACD is mixed, suggesting bearish; therefore, the idea will be to open a sell trade below the 1.2175 level today to capture quick green pips. 


GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair closed at 1.33564 after placing a high of 1.33935 and a low of 1.32894. The GBP/USD pair fell on Tuesday for the third consecutive day amid the rising Brexit uncertainty that took its toll on British Pound. The mixed comments from various officials from both sides raised the uncertainty in the market related to the Brexit deal and weighed on British Pound. The British Cabinet Minister Michael Gove announced that they had reached an agreement in principle. The E.U.’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier told European ministers that a deal’s chances were very thin. At the same time, German Minister Michael Roth said there was no substantial progress in the trade talks between the E.U. and the U.K. He added that it was uncertain whether Britain and the E.U. could reach a trade deal.

All this uncertainty in the market weighed on the British Pound and dragged the pair GBP/USD on the downside. Another factor involved in the GBP/USD pair’s downward momentum was the latest move by the U.K. government to drop parts of its controversial internal market bill that paved the way for both sides to meet in Brussels on Wednesday to settle an agreement.

The U.K. government reached a post-Brexit arrangement in principle over the Irish border with the European Union after agreeing to ditch the most controversial parts of its internal markets bill. On Tuesday, the U.K. government said that it would abandon all the Brexit clauses relating to Northern Ireland in the internal market bill in exchange for promises by the E.U. to minimize checks and control due to being imposed on food and medicines going into Northern Ireland from Great Britain from January 01.

A deal on Ireland is reached between the E.U. and the U.K. it was not one of the key sticking points that have held the Brexit talks hostage. The Brexit talks will enter a last decisive phase from Wednesday as the PM Boris Johnson has prepared to travel to Brussels on that day to secure a deal over the European Union’s relations with the U.K. If he failed to reach an agreement with the E.U. It would mean that from the start of next year, the tariffs would be applied to some trade between the U.K. and the E.U. for the first time in almost half a century. U.K. sends almost 43% of its exports to the trade bloc E.U. and tariffs on its exports will be harmful to its economy. Failure to reach a deal will also end many cooperation types between the U.K. and the E.U. over crime, security, and travel.

The British Pound remains under pressure on Tuesday ahead of the final round of talks between PM Johnson and E.U. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Wednesday. On the data front, at 05:01 GMT, the BRC Retail Sales Monitor for the Year raised to 7.7%against the forecasted 5.0% and supported British Pound, and capped further losses in GBP/USD pair.

From the U.S. side, at 01:00 GMT, the Consumer Credit for October declined to 7.2B against the estimated 17.6B and weighed on the U.S. dollar. At 16:00 GMT, the NFIB Business Index declined to 101.4 against the expected 102.6 in November and weighed on the U.S. dollar.

At 18:30 GMT, the Revised Nonfarm Productivity for the quarter fell to 4.6% against the expected 4.9% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Revised Unit Labor Costs for the quarter came in as -6.6% against the projected -8.9% and supported the U.S. dollar. At 20:00 GMT, the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism came in as 49.0 in December compared to the previous 50.0.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3297       1.3400

1.3242       1.3448

1.3193       1.3504

Pivot point: 1.3345

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading at 1.3378, holding below an immediate resistance level of 1.3395. On the higher side, the GBP/USD pair can lead to a 1.3437 level, and support stays at 1.3340, which is extended by an upward trendline. Overall it’s an ascending triangle, and it typically breaks on the higher side; thus, we can expect the GBP/USD price to move until 1.3435.


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair closed at 104.161 after placing a high of 104.204 and a low of 103.953. The pair posted gains on Tuesday as the market’s risk sentiment improved due to a combination of factors.

The news that Great Britain has started using the Pfizer vaccine on patients from Tuesday increased the risk-on sentiment as the hopes for economic recovery increased. Another factor involved in the rising risk-on sentiment was the rising hopes that the U.S. will soon deliver the second round of stimulus measures.

On late Monday, the Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, said that Beijing was open to restarting its relationship with the U.S. He also declared that both countries were at a critical historical stage after a year of intensifying tensions. Wang said that U.S. policy on China needed to return to objectivity and rationality. He also said that both sides should struggle to restart the dialogue and get back on the right track and rebuild mutual trust in the next Sino-US relations phase. Wang blamed the growing division between the world’s two biggest economies on some Americans with outdated Cold War mentality and ideological preconceptions. All these developments in vaccine usage, rising hopes for stimulus, and the U.S. and China relationship raised the risk sentiment that weighed heavily on the safe-haven Japanese Yen that ultimately supported the USD/JPY pair on Tuesday.

On the data front, at 04:30 GMT, the Average Cash Earnings for the Year came in as -0.8% against the expected -0.7% and weighed on the Japanese Yen. The Household Spending for the Year dropped to 1.9% against the forecasted 2.7% and weighed on the Japanese Yen and added gains in the USD/JPY pair. At 04:50 GMT, the Bank Lending for the Year came in line with the expectations of 6.3%. The Current Account Balance from Japan showed a surplus of 1.98T against the forecasted 1.83T for October and supported the Japanese Yen.

The quarter’s final GDP also raised to 5.3% against the expected 5.0% and supported the Japanese Yen. AT 04:52 GMT, the Final GDP Price Index for the Year raised to 1.2% against the forecasted 1.1% and supported the Japanese Yen. At 10:00 GMT, the Economic Watchers Sentiment dropped to 45.6 against the expected 52.7 and weighed on the Japanese Yen that supported the USD/JPY pair’s upward trend.

From the U.S. side, at 01:00 GMT, the Consumer Credit for October fell to 7.2B against the estimated 17.6B and weighed on the U.S. dollar. At 16:00 GMT, the NFIB Business Index fell to 101.4 against the estimated 102.6 in November and weighed on the U.S. dollar. At 18:30 GMT, the Revised Nonfarm Productivity for the quarter declined to 4.6% against the forecasted 4.9%, supported the U.S. dollar, and added further gains in the USD/JPY pair. The Revised Unit Labor Costs for the quarter came in as -6.6% against the projected -8.9% and supported the U.S. dollar and supported the USD/JPY pair’s upside momentum. At 20:00 GMT, the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism came in as 49.0 in December than the previous 50.0.

Meanwhile, the USD/JPY pair’s gains remained limited as the U.S. dollar was under pressure as the country crossed 15 million coronavirus cases, which was the world’s highest total. American hospitals started to give warnings about the staff shortage and extensive spread of the disease. Pennsylvania’s governor Tom Wolf said that the coronavirus was spreading extensively throughout the state and could soon reach the level where hospitals will begin turning away patients. He also said that additional pandemic restrictions might be on controlling the spread of the virus.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

104.00       104.27

103.84       104.38

103.73       104.54

Pivot point: 104.11

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading within a symmetric triangle pattern observed in the 4-hour timeframe. The pair recently disrupted the sideways trading series of 104.600 – 104.200, and now it’s trading at 104.300 level, especially after bouncing off over 103.700 level on the lower side, supporting the pair nearby 103.700 mark. On the downside, the USD/JPY may find support at the 103.200 level upon a bearish breakout of the 103.750 support level. While resistance stays at 104.350 and 104.700 today. Good luck

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Dec 09 – Bitcoin Drops to $18,000; Crypto Market Tumbles

The cryptocurrency sector has dropped significantly as bears took over the market. Bitcoin is currently trading for $18,315, representing a decrease of 4.50% compared to our last report. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has decreased by 6.17% on the day, while XRP managed to lose 7.73%.

 Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

ALL BEST ICO gained 19,990.71% in the past 24 hours, making it the most prominent daily crypto gainer by far. It is followed by COIL’s 151.88% and Amun Bitcoin 3x Daily Short’s 112.92% gain. On the other hand, Monavale lost 54.51%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by KIMCHI.finance’s loss of 52.82% and Iteration Syndicate’s loss of 51.70%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s market dominance has moved to the upside just under half a percent since we last reported, with its value currently being 63%. This value represents a difference of 0.4% to the upside when compared to yesterday’s value.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The crypto sector capitalization has decreased significantly in the past 24 hours, with its current value being $536.08 billion. This represents a $32.76 billion decrease when compared to our previous report.

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What happened in the past 24 hours?

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Technical analysis

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Bitcoin

After spending the past couple of days in a very narrow range, Bitcoin has finally made a move as bears took over the market. The price went down rapidly and reached as low as $18,000 at one point, but then went slightly above this crucial level.

While Bitcoin is safe from breaking $18,000 to the downside at the moment, Micheal van de Poppe pointed out that a large CME gap is looming. The gap ranges from $18,275 to $16,995.

Lastly, the Hash Ribbons indicator has posted a buy signal, giving long-term investors the green light to invest in Bitcoin. This indicator has proven itself one of the best RoI indicators for Bitcoin when it comes to long-term investing.

BTC/USD 4-hour chart

Bitcoin’s long-term technicals (weekly and monthly) are completely tilted towards the buy-side, while its daily overview is still bullish but showing slight signs of neutrality. On the other hand, its 4-hour overview is completely bearish.

BTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Price is currently below both its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
  • Price is at its bottom Bollinger band
  • RSI is close to being oversold (31.73)
  • Volume is average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $18,600                                 1: $18,190

2: $18,790                                 2: $17,780

3: $19,000                                  3: $17,200

Ethereum

Ethereum wasn’t immune to the downturn either, with its price dropping from the sub-$600 levels all the way down to just above $550. Unlike Bitcoin, however, there are no CME gaps to worry about, and Ethereum seems quite stable above $550.

The only thing to worry about when anticipating Ether’s next price move is Bitcoin’s movement. At the moment, Bitcoin is dictating all consolidations, as well as large moves in either direction.

ETH/USD 4-hour Chart

Ethereum’s monthly overview shows a full tilt towards the buy-side, while its daily and weekly overviews still show some signs of neutrality. On the other hand, its 4-hour overview is bearish but shows slight signs of neutrality.

ETH/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical Factors (4-hour Chart):
  • The price is currently below both its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
  • Price is at its bottom Bollinger band
  • RSI is in the oversold territory (28.61)
  • Volume is above average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $565                                     1: $550

2: $582                                     2: $525 

3: $600                                      3: $510

Ripple

The fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap moved to the downside as well, with its $0.545 support level holding up as the last-resort support. XRP is currently stable and trading between $0.545 to the downside and $0.571 to the upside, with its price, seemingly creating a double bottom (today and on Dec 5).

XRP traders might want to (still) refrain from trading XRP simply due to the disbalance of the risk and reward, as well as due to its low volatility.

XRP/USD 4-hour Chart

XRP’s longer weekly and monthly time-frames show complete bullishness, while its 4-hour overview is completely bearish. Its daily overview is still bullish but shows some signs of neutrality or even some bearishness.

XRP/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • The price is currently below both its 50-period EMA, as well as its 21-period EMA
  • Price is at its bottom Bollinger band
  • RSI is close to being oversold (34.36)
  • Volume is slightly above average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $0.571                                   1: $0.545

2: $0.6                                       2: $0.5

3: $0.63                                    3: $0.475

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Dec 08 – BTC, ETH and XRP Preparing for a Big Move; Crypto Sector in Consolidation Mode

The cryptocurrency sector has spent the past 24, mostly consolidating, as it failed to reach past its resistance levels on Monday. Bitcoin is currently trading for $19,180, representing a decrease of 0.65% compared to our last report. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has decreased by 1.14% on the day, while XRP managed to lose 1.65%.

 Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

Prophet gained 358.97% in the past 24 hours, making it the most prominent daily crypto gainer. It is closely followed by Seigniorage Shares’ 344.54% and xBTC’s 340.23% gain. On the other hand, CryptoBet lost 95.85%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by Semux’s loss of 90.60% and Bitball Nyan v2’s loss of 51.05%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s market dominance has moved to the upside over half a percent since we last reported, with its value currently being 62.6%. This value represents a difference of 0.6% to the upside when compared to yesterday’s value.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The crypto sector capitalization has increased in the past 24 hours, with its current value being $568.82 51.68 billion. This represents a $17.24 billion increase when compared to our previous report.

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What happened in the past 24 hours?

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Technical analysis

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin has continued with its slow movement as another low volatility day passed. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap oscillated between $18,905 and $19,431. The one time it dropped under the $19,000 mark, it found support in the 50-period moving average, which has proven to be a strong (both support and resistance) level.

Due to the low volatility, traders can’t really do much at the moment. However, they can prepare for the next move Bitcoin makes.

Lastly, the Hash Ribbons (one of the best accumulation indicators) indicator has posted a buy signal, giving long-term investors the green light.

BTC/USD 4-hour chart

Bitcoin’s technicals on both short and long time-frames are bullish, with its weekly time-frame showing full tilt to the buy-side and its 4-hour, daily, and monthly time-frames tilting more towards neutrality.

BTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Price is slightly above its 50-period EMA while being at its 21-period EMA
  • Price is at its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (51.61)
  • Volume is slightly below average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $19,500                                 1: $19,000

2: $19,666                                 2: $18,790

3: $20,000                                  3: $18,600

Ethereum

Ethereum has, just like Bitcoin, had quite a slow day, with its price moving slightly down. At the moment, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap doesn’t seem like it will tackle $600, as its volume is too low to pressure this major resistance level. However, if and when a bull run past $600 happens, traders will have a great opportunity to catch a safe trade with a stop-loss slightly below $600 and a possible target of $620 or $630.

ETH/USD 4-hour Chart

Ethereum’s monthly overview shows a full tilt towards the buy-side, while its daily and weekly overviews show some signs of neutrality. On the other hand, its 4-hour overview is completely bearish.

ETH/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical Factors (4-hour Chart):
  • The price is slightly above its 50-period EMA while being slightly below its 21-period EMA
  • Price is at its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (48.32)
  • Volume is below average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $620                                     1: $600

2: $630                                     2: $530 

3: $735                                      3: $510

Ripple

The fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap has close to no volatility, as well as very low volume on most exchanges. With the price movement being non-existent, there is not much to say about the current XRP trading. However, whenever the trading range is getting this narrow, a breakout is on the horizon.

XRP has created a flag formation on the 1-day chart, signaling that an increase in volume could bring a breakout to the upside and a possible spike of up to 60%, which would take the coin’s price above $1,00.


XRP/USD 4-hour Chart

XRP’s longer time-frames (weekly and monthly) show complete bullishness, while its 4-hour and daily overviews show some signs of neutrality or even bearishness.

XRP/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • The price is at its 50-period EMA, as well as at its 21-period EMA
  • Price is at its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (50.46)
  • Volume is well below average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $0.666                                   1: $0.6

2: $0.78                                     2: $0.596

3: $0.79                                   3: $0.535

Categories
Forex Signals

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 08 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eyes on European Events! 

On the news front, the market is likely to remain muted in the absence of high impact events. Italian banks will be closed in observance of Immaculate Conception Day while the Frend Trade Balance, European Revised GDP q/q, and German ZEW Economic Sentiment will remain in the highlights today.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 


 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.21088 after placing a high of 1.21660 and a low of 1.20784. EUR/USD pair extended its losses on Monday for the second consecutive day over the diminishing risk sentiment and the hopes for further easing package from ECB. The EUR/USD pair remained under pressure on Monday ahead of the upcoming ECB meeting on Thursday. The European Central Bank was set to deliver a further easing package of almost 500 billion euros to the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme that will extend the purchases for many more months and weighed on the single currency Euro. 

Furthermore, the European Central Bank is also expected to increase its targeted longer-term refinancing operations and also to make them more accommodative. The ECB’s governing council members said that these decisions have been taken to extend the duration of accommodative financial conditions to support the recovery in 2021 further and beyond, rather than making financial conditions right now more accommodative.

The pressure on ECB to over-deliver on the market expectations declined due to the recent improvement in global financial market conditions since Joe Biden won the U.S. presidential election and positive vaccine news in early November. The more important event of the day for EUR was the Summit of 27 E.U. countries that will begin on Thursday and Friday.

The top agenda will be Brexit in the Summit as the question remained that UK PM Boris Johnson and E.U. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will be successful in reaching a deal before the Summit. The paused Brexit talks by top E.U. negotiator Michel Barnier on Friday also added pressure on EUR/USD pair on Monday. Another factor pressuring the European Union was the Polish and Hungarian veto against the E.U. Recovery Fund and the 2021-2027 Budget. Both nations announced their intentions shortly before ambassadors of the E.U. member states met on Monday to veto various parts of the financial settlement. If a deal cannot be agreed with these two nations regarding the rule of law attachments being added to funding, then the E.U. has threatened to go with EU-minus Poland and Hungary fiscal package. 

On the data front, at 12:00 GMT, the German Industrial Production also raised to 3.2% against the estimated 1.8% and supported Euro and capped further losses in EUR/USD pair. At 14:30 GMT, the Sentix Investor Confidence came in as -2.7 against the estimated -11.9 and supported Euro and limited additional losses in EUR/USD pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.2113      1.2129

1.2107      1.2139

1.2097     1.2146

Pivot point: 1.2123

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The market’s technical side continues to be the same as the pair continues to trade sideways due to a lack of high impact economic events. On the higher side, the EUR/USD may find an immediate resistance at 1.2160 and 1.2196 level. Simultaneously, the closing of candles below the 1.2103 level can send the EUR/USD pair further lower until 1.2080 and 1.2040 level. The MACD is strongly bearish; therefore, the idea will be to open a sell trade below the 1.2175 level today to capture quick green pips. 


GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.33785 after placing a high of 1.34375 and a low of 1.32239. The GBP/USD pair dropped to its lowest since November 19 on Monday in the early trading session due to the rising U.S. dollar, but it started to recover in the late trading session after the Brexit hopes raised. The U.S. dollar raised on Monday after the coronavirus cases continued to rise, and lockdowns expanded and weighed on the U.S. economic recovery. On Sunday, the Governor of California, Gavin Newsom, ordered large parts of the most populous U.S. state to close down as coronavirus cases spiked to record levels. 

On Sunday, California reported more than 30,000 new cases and marked a new record for hospitalized coronavirus patients. Other states including, New Jersey, North Carolina, Virginia, and West Virginia, also announced a record one-day rise in new infections. These increased cases raised concerns over the economic recovery hopes and raised the demand for safe-haven greenback that ultimately weighed on GBP/USD pair. However, the currency pair GBP/USD recovered some of its losses on Monday after the UK PM Boris Johnson revealed that he was set to travel to Brussels in a last-ditch effort to break a post-Brexit deal. The E.U. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and the UK PM Boris Johnson will remove the differences on a post-Brexit deal in the coming days. This came in after a 90 minutes phone call between the two leaders failed to produce a breakthrough. 

In a joint statement, both said that the conditions for a deal were not there, and significant differences remained on fishing, level playing field, and any deal governance. They have asked their chief negotiators to prepare an overview of the remaining sticking points discussed in a physical meeting in Brussels in the coming days. A senior U.K. governmental source warned that a deal might not be possible after the phone call between Ursula and Johnson. It was also reported that the talks were in the same position as they were on Friday and made no progress. All these downbeat statements related to Brexit weighed heavily on GBP/USD pair.

On the data front, at 13:30 GMT, the Halifax Housing Price Index for November raised to 1.2% against the forecasted 0.6% and supported British Pound, and capped further losses in GBP/USD pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support  Resistance

1.3377      1.3438

1.3338      1.3462

1.3315      1.350 0

Pivot point: 1.3400

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD pair bounced off over 1.3263 level, trading at 1.3340 level now. On the 4 hour timeframe, the GBP/USD is consolidating in between a wide trading range of 1.3406 – 1.3263 level. The Cable may find the next support at 1.3204 level, and below this, the next support can also be found around 1.3100 level today. On the higher side, the resistance hold around the 1.3406 mark. The MACD and RSI are suggesting selling bais in the pair, and we should look for selling trades below 1.3400 and buying over 1.3265 level today. 


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 104.046 after placing a high of 104.310 and a low of 103.920. On Monday, the USD/JPY pair consolidated within a tight range around 104.00 level after placing a high of 104.310 on the U.S. dollar’s strength in the early European morning. However, the pair USD/JPY reversed its direction and started posting losses in late trading hours. The U.S. dollar was strong in early European trade on Monday as the coronavirus cases continued to rise and lockdowns expanded and weighed on the U.S. economic recovery. The U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against the six other currencies basket was up by 0.3% at 90.993.

The record hike in the coronavirus spread caused the Governor of California, Gavin Newsom, to order large parts of the most populous U.S. state to close down again. California state reported 30,000 new cases in a single day and broke its daily high record. Other states like New Jersey, North Carolina, Virginia, and West Virginia also reported a record-high number of coronavirus cases.

The rising number of coronavirus infections and the U.S. hospitalization rate added pressure on the U.S. economic recovery and raised the appeal for safe-haven that ultimately added strength to the greenback. The strong U.S. dollar helped the USD/JPY pair rise to the 104.300 level in the early trading session.

However, the USD/JPY pair’s gains were short-lived as the pair started to decline in the late trading session and posted losses for the day. The decline in the USD/JPY pair was due to appreciation in the Japanese Yen after the lower U.S. yields on the day.

The 10-year Treasury yield fell by 4bps to 0.929%, and the 10-year real rates also dropped to -0.97% by 3bps. The declining U.S. yields thus decreased the attractiveness of USD investments relative to Japanese government bonds and underpinned selling pressure in the USD/JPY pair.

On the data front, at 09:59 GMT, the Leading Indicators from Japan came in line with the expectations of 93.8%. Meanwhile, the latest optimism regarding the vaccine and fiscal stimulus also kept the USD/JPY pair supported and limited the day’s losses.

Another reason behind the increasing demand for safe-haven Japanese Yen was the recent financial sanctions imposed by the U.S. and a travel ban on 14 Chinese officials over their suspected role in disqualifying elected opposition legislators in Hong Kong.

Hong Kong’s Beijing-backed government expelled four opposition members last month. In this response, the U.S. levied sanctions on Chinese officials and also blocked any assets the official might have within the U.S. These sanctions added in the safe-haven demand in the market and added strength in the Japanese Yen against the U.S. dollar, and weighed on the USD/JPY pair on Monday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

104.10      104.27

104.00      104.34

103.94      104.44

Pivot point: 104.17

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading within a symmetric triangle pattern seen in the 4-hour timeframe. The pair lately violated the sideways trading range of 104.600 – 104.200, and now it’s trading at 104.300 level, especially after bouncing off over 103.700 level on the lower side, supporting the pair around 103.700 level. On the downside, the USD/JPY may find support at the 103.200 level upon a bearish breakout of the 103.750 support level. While resistance stays at 104.350 and 104.700 today. Good luck

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 07 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eyes on European Events! 

The calendar is a bit muted today, and the market can exabit thin trading volume on the news front. However, the focus can stay on German Industrial Production m/m and Sentix Investor Confidence from the Eurozone, which are expected to perform better than the previous month and may underpin the Euro currency. Besides, the U.K. Halifax HPI m/m will also play a slight role in determining the GBP trend, while economists expect HPI to improve from 0.3% to 0.6% this month.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.21185 after placing a high of 1.21772 and a low of 1.21101. After rising for three consecutive days, the EUR/USD pair dropped on Friday after the initial rally. The downfall in EUR/USD pair on the day came in after U.S. job figures’ release.

In the trading session on Friday, the EUR/USD pair rallied slightly on the back of improved risk sentiment and the U.S. dollar’s weakness. The risk perceived EUR/USD followed the optimism regarding the coronavirus vaccine and moved higher in the early trading session on Friday. Besides, the U.S. dollar’s weakness due to the increased spread of coronavirus and hospitalization rate in the U.S. also added strength to the rising EUR/USD pair.

The U.S. dollar was also weak due to increased hopes for the next round of U.S. stimulus package after the CARES Act passed in March. Democrats and Republicans have agreed over a $908 billion stimulus package, and the expectations have increased that a big stimulus will also be delivered soon. The weak U.S. dollar gave a Pushto EUR/USD pair on Friday and raised its prices above the 1.21700 level.

However, the EUR/USD pair’s gains started to reverse and converted into losses after the release of macroeconomic data from the U.S.

At 12:00 GMT, the German Factory Orders for November raised to 2.9% against the expected 1.4% and supported Euro. At 12:45 GMT, the French Gov Budget Balance came in as -159.9B. At 14:00 GMT, the Italian Retail Sales raised to 0.6% against the forecasted 0.2% and supported Euro.

At 18:30 GMT, the Average Hourly Earnings rose to 0.3% against the anticipated 0.1% and supported the U.S. dollar and added pressure on EUR/USD. The Non-Farm Employment Change declined to 245K against the anticipated 480K and weighed on the U.S. dollar. 

The Unemployment Rate declined to 6.7% against the anticipated 6.8% and supported the U.S. dollar and dragged the EUR/USD pair. The Trade Balance from the U.S. came in as -63.1B against the anticipated -64.7B and supported the U.S. dollar and weighed on EUR/USD pair. At 20:00 GMT, the Factory Orders for November raised to 1.0% against the anticipated 0.8% and supported U.S. Dollar. Most of the U.S. data came in support of the U.S. dollar that resulted in the EUR/USD pair’s downfall on Friday in the late trading session.

Daily Technical Levels

Support  Resistance

1.2101        1.2178

1.2063       1.2215

1.2025       1.2254

Pivot point: 1.2139

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

On Monday, the EUR/USD continues to trade sideways amid mixed NFP figures released on Friday. On the higher side, the EUR/USD may find an immediate resistance at 1.2160 and 1.2196 level. While the closing of candles below the 1.2103 level can send the EUR/USD pair further lower until 1.2080 and 1.2040 level. The MACD is strongly bearish; therefore, the idea will be to open a sell trade below the 1.2175 level today to capture quick green pips. 


GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.3413 after a high of 1.35390 and a low of 1.34096. The GBP/USD pair rose to its highest level since May 2018 in the early trading session on Friday over the combined factor of Brexit optimism and the weakness of the U.S. dollar. However, the British Pound cut its gains after the E.U.’s Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier paused the talks.

During the early trading session on Friday, the GBP/USD pair rose and started to post gains following the Brexit optimism triggered after the agreement was reached over the Fisheries between the U.K. and the E.U. Another factor involved in the GBP/USD pair’s upward momentum was the U.S. dollar’s weakness.

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) that measures the value of the U.S. dollar against the basket of six currencies fell to its six years, the lowest level of 90.47 on Friday. The losses in DXY were due to a combination of factors, including the rising number of coronavirus in the nation and the rising expectations of the U.S. stimulus package.

The number of new coronavirus cases in the past five days in the U.S. reached about 1 million. The hospitalization rate also increased to an alarming level and hit a record high after 101,487 patients were reported to be hospitalized in a single day. This negative news from the U.S. added further pressure on the U.S. dollar and supported the upward trend in the GBP/USD pair in the early trading session on Friday.

British Pound was under demand on Thursday after the U.K. and E.U. reported that they had reached an agreement over one key sticking issue of Fisheries. Investors started to buy GBP/USD in the early trading session on Friday as they continued following the previous trend.

However, the currency pair GBP/USD pair started to decline on Friday after the release of U.S. macroeconomic data and the announcement from Michel Barnier. The E.U. Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, said that he had paused the trade talks with the U.K. and added that the conditions for a deal had not yet been met.

After one week of intensive negotiations in London, the U.K. and E.U. agreed to pause talks because the post-Brexit deal conditions were not met. Barnier said that E.U. Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and PM Boris Johson would try to make progress on a deal in the next meeting that will take place on Saturday.

After these comments by the E.U. top negotiator, the earlier optimism that the deal was imminent could be reached before the end of the week. These updates suggested that talks have reached a very critical stage, and anything could happen. It raised the market’s uncertainty and supported the safe-haven greenback that exerted pressure on GBP/USD pair.

On the data front, at 14:30 GMT, the Construction PMI from Great Britain raised to 54.7 against the projected 52.3 and supported British Pound and limited the losses in GBP/USD pair.

From the U.S. side, at 18:30 GMT, the Average Hourly Earnings surged to 0.3% against the projected 0.1% and supported the U.S. dollar and added losses in GBP/USD pair. The Non-Farm Employment Change fell to 245K against the projected 480K and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The Unemployment Rate fell to 6.7% against the projected 6.8%, supported the U.S. dollar, and dragged GBP/USD pair. The Trade Balance from the U.S. came in as -63.1B against the projected -64.7B and supported the U.S. dollar. At 20:00 GMT, the Factory Orders for November surged to 1.0% against the projected 0.8% and supported U.S. Dollar and added losses in the GBP/USD pair on Friday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3286       1.3441

1.3209       1.3519

1.3131       1.3596

Pivot Point: 1.3364

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is falling dramatically from 1.3450 to 1.3230 level by the time of covering this report. On the 4 hour timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has dipped sharply and has already violated the upward channel, which supported the pair around the 1.3350 level. The Cable may find the next support at 1.3204 level, and below this, the next support can also be found around 1.3100 level today. On the higher side, the resistance hold around the 1.3300 mark. The MACD and RSI are suggesting selling bais in the pair, we should look for selling trades below 1.3350 and buying over 1.3185 level today. 


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 104.186 after placing a high of 104.242 and a low of 103.736. The currency pair USD/JPY rose on Friday amid the supportive U.S. macroeconomic data and the increased U.S. yields.

On Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labour reported that only 245K jobs were added to the economy while the unemployment rate fell by 0.2% in November and supported the U.S. dollar.

On the data front, at 18:30 GMT, the Average Hourly Earnings advanced to 0.3% against the anticipated 0.1% and supported the U.S. dollar and added gains in the USD/JPY pair. The Non-Farm Employment Change declined to 245K against the anticipated 480K and weighed on the U.S. dollar capped further gains in the USD/JPY pair. The Unemployment Rate declined to 6.7% against the anticipated 6.8% and supported the U.S. dollar.

The Trade Balance from the U.S. came in as -63.1B against the anticipated -64.7B and supported the U.S. dollar and pushed the pair USD/JPY higher. At 20:00 GMT, the Factory Orders for November advanced to 1.0% against the anticipated 0.8% and supported the U.S. Dollar, and added further gains in the USD/JPY pair.

The U.S.’s supportive data proved good news for the market that pushed the S&P 500 to an all-time high and raised the U.S. 10-year yield by 5bps to 0.97%. The rise in U.S. yields also added strength in the U.S. dollar and added gains in the USD/JPY pair. The less than expected job creation by the U.S. Labor Department made the near-term U.S. fiscal stimulus more likely and exerted pressure on Congress to swiftly avert the labor market’s slowdown.

However, the risk sentiment was also strong in the market after the vaccine optimism escalated and supported the hopes that the economic activities will return to pre-pandemic levels. These hopes, along with the rising expectations that the world’s largest economy will also recover soon as the stimulus package was near to be delivered, added to the risk-sentiment. These risk flows added weight on the safe-haven Japanese Yen that supported the USD/JPY pair and pushed it higher.

Meanwhile, the gains in the USD/JPY pair were also limited because of the rising number of coronavirus cases in the U.S. Over the period of 5 days, the U.S. has recorded about 1 million new coronavirus cases, and the hospitalization rate in the U.S. also hit its highest record by reaching more than 104,000 patients in a single day.

The USD/JPY pair rose on Friday due to supportive U.S. macroeconomic data, higher U.S. yields, and the rising risk sentiment in the market due to global economic recovery hopes.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

103.48       104.35

103.13       104.89

102.60       105.23

Pivot point: 104.01

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading within a symmetric triangle pattern seen in the 4-hour timeframe. The pair lately violated the sideways trading range of 104.600 – 104.200, and now it’s trading at 104.300 level, especially after bouncing off over 103.700 level on the lower side, supporting the pair around 103.700 level. On the downside, the USD/JPY may find support at the 103.200 level upon a bearish breakout of the 103.750 support level. While resistance stays at 104.350 and 104.700 today. Good luck

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Dec 07 – ETHE and GBTC Grayscale Funds Reach All-Time High Average Daily Volumes in November

The cryptocurrency sector has spent the weekend recovering from the price descent on Dec 3 and 4. Bitcoin is currently trading for $19,288, representing an increase of 0.16% compared to our last report. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has decreased by 1.49% on the day, while XRP managed to lose 0.74%.

 Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

Omnitude gained 241.76% in the past 24 hours, making it the most prominent daily crypto gainer. It is closely followed by KIMCHI.finance’s 185% and Badger DAO’s 123.92% gain. On the other hand, DAV Coin lost 71.6%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by Semux’s loss of 66.12% and Bitball Treasure’s loss of 65.05%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s market dominance has barely moved to the downside since we last reported, with its value currently being 62.1%. This value represents a difference of 0.3% to the downside when compared to Friday’s value.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The crypto sector capitalization has decreased over the weekend. Its current value is $551.68 billion, representing an $18.83 billion decrease when compared to our previous report.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

_______________________________________________________________________

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

Bitcoin has spent the weekend trying to recover from the downturn it had on Dec 3 and 4. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap has formed a triangle formation that is respected throughout the weekend and then broke it to the upside. While the move was short-lived, the overall short-term bullishness has increased.

Some traders see a bull flag instead of the triangle formation, which makes the possibly future even more bullish. Posting any short trades would most likely be more risky than profitable at the moment.

It is also important to note that the Has Ribbons (one of the best accumulation indicators) indicator has posted a buy signal.

BTC/USD 4-hour chart

Bitcoin’s technicals on all time-frames are bullish, with 4-hour and weekly time-frames showing full tilt to the buy-side and daily and monthly time-frames tilting more towards neutrality.

BTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Price is above its 50-period EMA and slightly above its 21-period EMA
  • Price is slightly above its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (54.36)
  • Volume is below average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $19,500                                 1: $19,000

2: $19,666                                 2: $18,790

3: $20,000                                 3: $18,500

Ethereum

Ethereum has spent the weekend slowly pushing towards the upside, reaching just under $600 and bouncing off the resistance level. Its current failure to break $600 is not a big red flag, as Ethereum’s large moves are (lately) mostly caused by Bitcoin’s movement.

Ethereum traders have a great opportunity to catch a safe trade if ETH/USD breaks $600. A stop-loss slightly below $600 and a possible target of $620 or $630 would make quite a viable trade.

ETH/USD 4-hour Chart

Ethereum’s 4-hour, weekly, and monthly overviews show a full tilt towards the buy-side, while its daily overview shows some signs of neutrality.

ETH/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical Factors (4-hour Chart):
  • The price is slightly above its 50-period and at its 21-period EMA
  • Price is at its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (50.51)
  • Volume is slightly below average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $620                                     1: $600

2: $630                                     2: $510 

3: $735                                      3: $500

Ripple

The fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap experienced slightly more volatility over the weekend than during the previous week, with its price hovering between $0.542 and $0.626. The $0.6 level is currently holding quite well as a support line, and XRP shows no signs of dropping below it unless some external factor surfaces.

Trading XRP is, even with the slight increase in volatility, a near-impossible feat at the moment. Trading other (more volatile) cryptocurrencies could be a much better option.

XRP/USD 4-hour Chart

XRP’s 4-hour, weekly, and monthly overviews show complete bullishness, while its daily overview shows some signs of neutrality.

XRP/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • The price is at both its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
  • Price is at its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (53.49)
  • Volume is slightly below average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $0.666                                   1: $0.6

2: $0.78                                     2: $0.596

3: $0.79                                   3: $0.535

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

BTC/USD Weekly Chart Analysis + Possible Outcomes

In this weekly BTC/USD analysis, we will be taking an in-depth look at the most recent technical formations, as well as look for the possible short-term price outcomes.

Overview

Bitcoin has spent the past week recovering levels it lost in a Nov 25 crash and even managed to push to a new all-time high on some exchanges. Still, the end-goal of Bitcoin above $20,000 was not reached.

Bitcoin’s institutional activity is more than booming, with news coming out left and right about companies investing in crypto, financial institutions preparing to embrace Bitcoin as an asset class, as well as regulators allowing Bitcoin to be held in employees’ company-funded 401k plans. On the other hand, Not being able to push past the $20,000 resistance level due to an incredible amount of sell orders near it has brought Bitcoin bears another day of hoping that the price will go lower.

Technical factors



Bitcoin has continued moving up until reaching an all-time high on some exchanges and then creating a doji candle followed by an inverted hammer candle on a weekly time-frame, indicating a possible bearish outlook as Bitcoin has most likely reached its short-term top. Looking at the shorter time-frames, such as the 4-hour one, we can see that Bitcoin has formed either a triangle formation or (if we include the movement from that started on Nov 27) a bull flag, which goes against the previously mentioned bearish outlook. Any break from the channel Bitcoin is trading in at the moment could mean a strong move towards that side.

The hash ribbons indicator flashed a BUY signal, which is an incredibly important update for long-term investors, as this indicator was the most consistent investment tool when it comes to RoI.

Likely Outcomes

Bitcoin’s sending out mixed signals on different time-frames, indicating indecisiveness from the retail sector. On the other hand, companies and institutions show incredibly bullishness as they are buying up Bitcoin over-the-counter. While a move to the downside is quite possible at the moment, the overall current trend is bullish, and short-selling could possibly harm traders’ portfolios more than they can improve it.

1: If Bitcoin fails to establish itself above $19,100 and breaks the range to the downside (slightly less likely), its most likely target will be $18,450. Due to a large number of buy orders in the zone between $18,190 and $18,450, this is the most likely place for reaccumulation and a push towards the upside after a pullback.

2: If Bitcoin manages to push towards the upside, first breaking $19,100 and then the descending black line (top line of the triangle formation), we can expect the price to attempt another push above $20,000, with the possibility of breaking it this time. If Bitcoin proves to be in a bull flag formation rather than a triangle formation, the profit target stays the same ($19,666 with possibly taking some profits along the way).

Entering any trade with having a target of above $20,000 is quite risky, and it would be better to play it safe and end the trade pre-$20,000 and then re-enter it if the price confidently moves up. The same goes for entering a short trade with sub-$18,450 in mind.

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 04 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – NFP in Highlights! 

The eyes will remain on the U.S. NFP data on the news side, which is expected to report a slight drop from 638K to 500K during the previous month. Besides, the U.S. Average Hourly Earnings m/m and Unemployment Rate will also remain the main highlight of the day, and these may determine the USD trend for today and next week. Let’s wait for the news.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.21474 after placing a high of 1.21744 and a low of 1.21008. EUR/USD pair extended its gains for the 3rd consecutive day on Thursday due to the U.S. dollar’s weakness amid the rising hopes for the next round of U.S. stimulus package from Congress.

The Top Democrats, Joe Biden, and Nancy Pelosi backed the bipartisan $908 billion stimulus plan on the previous day. They urged the Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to drop his plan to bring a more modest package. All top Democrats, including the President-elect Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, and the Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, said that the bill would be acceptable as a starting point. 

The need for more stimulus relief packages to support the economy was increasingly evident, with both the ADP Non-Farm Payrolls and the ISM manufacturing survey below the expectations. Meanwhile, Car and Truck sales in November also fell from October level. On the coronavirus front, the U.S. had its deadliest day since the start of the pandemic on Thursday, with over 2700 recorded deaths due to coronavirus. Over the past 2-days alone, the death toll has reached 5000. The number of hospitalized people also reached for the first time, an alarming level of 100,000. All these developments weighed heavily on the U.S. dollar on Thursday and added strength to the EUR/USD pair.

The Spanish Services PMI for November raised to 39.5 against the expected 36.5 and supported Euro and added further gains in EUR/USD pair. At 13:45 GMT, the Italian Services PMI declined to 39.4 against the forecasted 40.9 and weighed on Euro. At 13:50 GMT, the French Final Services PMI fell to 38.8 against the anticipated 49.1 and weighed on Euro. AT 13:55 GMT, the German Final Services PMI came in line with the expectations of 46.2. At 14:00 GMT, the Final Services PMI from Eurozone raised to 41.7 against the expected 41.3 and supported Euro and the EUR/USD pair raised further. At 15:00 GMT, the Retail Sales for October also surged to 1.5% against the anticipated 0.7% and supported Euro and helped the EUR/USD pair to continue its bullish momentum.

From the U.S. side, at 17:30 GMT, the Challenger Job Cuts for the year in November came in as 45.4%against the previous 60.4%. At 18:30 GMT, the Unemployment Claims from last week fell to 712K against the anticipated 775K and supported the U.S. dollar. At 19:45 GMT, the Final Services PMI for November surged to 58.4 against the anticipated 57.5 and supported the U.S. dollar. At 20:00 GMT, the ISM Services PMI stayed as anticipated 55.9.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.1971       1.2122

1.1873       1.2175

1.1819       1.2273

Pivot point: 1.2024

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

On Friday, the EUR/USD pair continues to trade sideways ahead of the NFP figures, which may drive sharp movements during the U.S. session.

On the higher side, the EUR/USD may find an immediate resistance at 1.2160 and 1.2196 level. Simultaneously, the closing of candles below the 1.2103 level can send the EUR/USD pair further lower until 1.2080. Trend depends upon the NFP data.


GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD closed at 1.34525 after placing a high of 1.34998 and a low of 1.33288. The GBP/USD pair rose and reached above one year’s highest level over the bullish Brexit bets and the U.S. dollar’s weakness. On Thursday, the latest news raised the British Pound over the board that suggested that the Brexit trade deal could be reached by the weekend after the two sides showed hints of compromise over fish quotas. The positive news made the British Pound the best performer on the day in the G10 currencies. 

In an attempt to break the deadlock, Mr. Barnier and Boris Johnson lowered their demands by asking to get back only 60% of the fish that E.U. boats currently catch in British waters, down from 80%. Under the reported proposal, the U.K. would hold onto increased stocks of fish that are sold in the U.K. while the E.U. will keep the similar quotas of stock that are popular in the E.U. but not in the U.K.

The compromise was reported less than a week after E.U. Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier proposed to return about 15-18% of the fish caught by European fleets in British waters to the U.K. under a free trade agreement; however, at that time, the U.K. rejected this proposal.

The progress on fisheries is progress after a months-long stalemate; however, other key sticking points, including the level-playing field and governance, need to be solved to reach a deal. The time for the end of the Brexit transition period is near, and both sides have shown hints that a deal might reach by this weekend.

All these optimistic Brexit progress reports gave the local currency British Pound strength and supported the GBP/USD pair’s upward momentum that led the pair to its one-year highest level near 1.35000 on Thursday.

On the data front, at 14:30 GMT, the Final Services PMI from Britain raised to 47.6 against the expected 45.8 and supported British Pound and added further gains in GBP/USD pair.

From the U.S. front, at 17:30 GMT, the Challenger Job Cuts for the year in November came in as 45.4%against the previous 60.4%. At 18:30 GMT, the Unemployment Claims from last week declined to 712K against the projected 775K and supported the U.S. dollar. At 19:45 GMT, the Final Services PMI for November rose to 58.4 against the projected 57.5 and supported the U.S. dollar. At 20:00 GMT, the ISM Services PMI stayed as projected 55.9.

Furthermore, the gains in GBP/USD pair on Thursday were also because of the U.S. dollar’s weakness due to the progress in talks to reach a consensus between Republicans & Democrats over the second round of stimulus talks. Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, and Chuck Schumer have shown their consent for the bipartisan bill of $908 billion. This progress raised the hopes for a stimulus bill and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added strength to the GBP/USD pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3286       1.3441

1.3209       1.3519

1.3131       1.3596

Pivot Point: 1.3364

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading sideways in between a fresh trading range of 1.3305 – 1.3445. Breakout of this range can lead the Cable price towards the 1.3517 level. The volatility seems low ahead of the Christmas holidays. However, the European session can trigger a buying trend until the 1.3515 level, while support continues to stay at the 1.3305 level. A bearish breakout of the 1.3305 level can trigger selling until the 1.3212 level. The MACD and RSI are suggesting a bullish bias in the market. Let’s consider taking buying trades over 1.3305 and 1.3447 level today.


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 103.841 after placing a high of 104.534 and a low of 103.669. The USD /JPY pair dropped to its lowest since November 18 on Thursday due to broad-based U.S. dollar weakness.

The U.S. Dollar Index extended its losses for 3rd consecutive day on Thursday and fell to a 31-month lowest level below 91.10 after the hopes for the next round of stimulus raised in the market. The top three Democratic Leaders, President-elect Joe Biden, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, backed the bipartisan proposal for a coronavirus relief package worth $908 billion. They all urged the Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to drop his plans of bringing a more modest package back to the floor of the upper chamber.

Both parties agree that more relief aid should be delivered to Americans to curb the coronavirus pandemic’s effects but have differences over the size, method, and healthcare system. The renewed efforts to strike a deal followed a months-long deadlock over the second stimulus relief package and weighed heavily on the greenback that added losses in the USD/JPY pair.

On the data front at 17:30 GMT, the Challenger Job Cuts for the year in November came in as 45.4%against the previous 60.4%. At 18:30 GMT, the Unemployment Claims from last week dropped to 712K against the estimated 775K and supported the U.S. dollar, and capped further losses in the USD/JPY pair. At 19:45 GMT, the Final Services PMI for November rose to 58.4 against the estimated 57.5 and supported the U.S. dollar. At 20:00 GMT, the ISM Services PMI stayed as estimated at 55.9.

Furthermore, the U.S. dollar was also weak because of the rising cases of coronavirus in the U.S. The U.S. saw its deadliest day since the start of the pandemic on Thursday after 2,700 deaths were reported in a single day. Over the past two days only, the death toll has reached 5,000 in the U.S. from the coronavirus, and the hospitalization rate has also increased, with more than 100,000 cases reported to be hospitalized in a single day.

These raised concerns for the U.S. economy as many states were still under strict restrictive measures, and the economic activities there were still affected. The rising number of deaths might weigh more on the local currency. The U.S. dollar came under pressure and dragged the USD/JPY pair further on the downside.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

104.13       104.54

103.95       104.77

103.72       104.95

Pivot point: 104.36

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY has violated the sideways trading range of 104.600 – 104.200, and now it’s trading at 103.876 level. On the lower side, the pair has formed a triple bottom level, supporting the pair around 103.700 level. Investors seem to wait for the U.S. NFP and unemployment rate figures to determine further U.S. dollar trends. On the lower side, the USD/JPY may head towards the 103.200 level upon a bearish breakout of the 103.750 support level. While resistance stays at 104.350 today. Good luck

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Dec 4 – Bitcoin Above $19,000; Ether Fighting for $600

The cryptocurrency sector has spent the day trying to regain its recent highs, with Ethereum breaking $600 and Bitcoin breaking $19,000. Bitcoin is currently trading for $19,314, representing an increase of 1.14% compared to our last report. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has increased by 2.15% on the day, while XRP managed to lose 0.52%.

 Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

The past 24 hours have passed without any major winners or losers in the top100 cryptos. Ren gained 5.23% in the past 24 hours, making it the most prominent daily gainer in the top100. It is closely followed by Band Protocol’s 4.44% and VeChain’s 4.08% gain. On the other hand, Decentraland lost 4.98%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by Uniswap’s loss of 4.79% and Kyber Network’s loss of 4.49%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s market dominance has barely changed since we last reported, with its value currently being 62.4%. This value represents a difference of 0.1% to the upside when compared to yesterday’s value.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The crypto sector capitalization has decreased just slightly in the past 24 hours. Its current value is $570.51 billion, representing a $0.54 billion decrease compared to our previous report.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

_______________________________________________________________________

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

Bitcoin has spent the day trying to break its immediate resistance (which is sitting at $19,490). However, all attempts throughout the day have been unsuccessful, which prompted Bitcoin to pull back slightly. However, the largest cryptocurrency by market cap has established its presence above $19,000 with confidence once again.

Bitcoin is quite unpredictable at the moment, making safe trades hard to find. Traders should pay attention to BTC volume and enter trades with a high profit/loss ratio to quickly mitigate the risk of things turning from good to bad.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart

Bitcoin’s technicals on all time-frames are bullish, but they all show some signs of neutrality (or even bearishness) alongside the overall bullishness.

BTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Price is currently above its 50-period EMA and slightly above its 21-period EMA
  • Price is at its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (56.72)
  • Volume is average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $19,500                                 1: $19,000

2: $19,666                                 2: $18,790

3: $20,000                                 3: $18,500

Ethereum

Ethereum has spent the day following Bitcoin’s movement, with its price first pushing towards the upside and then pulling back as it was unable to break a certain level (in this case, $620. On the other hand, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap has seemingly established its presence above $600, though not with nearly as much conviction as Bitcoin did.

If Ethereum traders followed our advice from yesterday’s analysis, they would have made quite a good profit by longing Ether after it broke $600, with a stop-loss set slightly below this level. While trading Ethereum is still quite possible, the current high correlation with Bitcoin’s movement makes Bitcoin a (possibly) better option to trade, simply due to fewer variables a trader would have to consider.

ETH/USD 1-hour Chart

Ethereum’s daily and monthly overviews are completely bullish, while its 4-hour and weekly time-frames show some form of neutrality next to the overall bullishness.

ETH/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical Factors (4-hour Chart):
  • The price is currently above its 50-period and slightly above its 21-period EMA
  • Price is at its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (57.22)
  • Volume is average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $620                                     1: $600

2: $630                                     2: $510 

3: $735                                      3: $500

Ripple

The fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap has had another extremely slow day, with its price barely fluctuating at all. The low volume and low volatility are continuing throughout the week, with XRP just barely moving to the downside as a response to the minor pullback caused by Bitcoin’s movement.

Trading XRP is a near-impossible feat at the moment, as the cryptocurrency currently shows no volatility and (therefore) no trade opportunities.

XRP/USD 2-hour Chart

XRP’s daily and monthly overviews are completely bullish, while its weekly time-frames show bullish sentiment with a hint of neutrality. Its 4-hour overview, however, is completely bearish.

XRP/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • The price is (at the moment of writing) slightly above its 50-period EMA and slightly below its 21-period EMA
  • Price is slightly below its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (48.53)
  • Volume is slightly below average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $0.666                                   1: $0.6

2: $0.78                                     2: $0.596

3: $0.79                                   3: $0.535

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 03 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Services PMI under Spotlight! 

The focus will remain on the range of services PMI numbers from the Eurozone and U.K. on the data front. Most of the data is anticipated to be neutral; nevertheless, the U.S. Unemployment Claims and ISM Services PMI will be the main highlight of the day.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD closed at 1.21150 after placing a high of 1.21182 and a low of 1.20398. The EUR/USD pair rose to its highest since April 2018 on Wednesday amid rising optimism from the vaccine front and the fiscal stimulus hopes.

On Wednesday, the U.K. regulator approved Pfizer and BioNtech’s vaccine for emergency use to fight against the coronavirus. This news added further support to the already improved risk sentiment in the market and helped the EUR/USD pair to rise as it is a riskier asset.

On the data front, at 12:00 GMT, the German Retail Sales for October raised to 2.6% against the projected 1.3% and supported Euro that added further gains in EUR/USD pair. At 13:00 GMT, the Spanish Unemployment Change dropped to 25.3K against the estimated 54.5K and supported Euro and added further gains in EUR/USD pair. At 14:00 GMT, Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate for October declined to 9.8% against the forecasted 9.9% and supported Euro and helped EUR/USD rise. At 15:00 GMT, the PPI for October raised to0.4% against the forecasted 0.2% and kept the single currency Euro and gave additional support to EUR/USD pair. The Unemployment Rate in Eurozone remained flat at 8.4%.

At 18:15 GMT, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change for November fell to 307K against the anticipated 433K and weighed on the U.S. dollar and added further in EUR/USD pair. After the release of macroeconomic data on Wednesday, the currency pair EUR/USD raised sharply and surpassed the 1.2100 level as all the data was in favor of it. Meanwhile, the lawmakers in Washington continued their negotiations related to a fiscal stimulus deal to support the U.S. economy. The negotiations weighed on local currency and made the U.S. dollar weak across the board. Furthermore, the optimism about a $908 billion package also boosted the market’s risk sentiment and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added additional gains in EUR/USD pair.

The U.S. dollar was also weak because of the rising number of coronavirus cases in the U.S. On Wednesday, the total number of deaths from coronavirus set a new record in a single day, and hospitalizations also reached an all-time high. On Wednesday, about 100,200 patients of coronavirus were hospitalized in the U.S. The U.S. Dollar Index on Wednesday slumped to its lowest level in more than 30 months at 91.10 and supported the upward momentum of the EUR/USD pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.1971       1.2122

1.1873       1.2175

1.1819       1.2273

Pivot point: 1.2024

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The bullish bias of the EUR/USD continues to dominate the market as the pair surged further higher until the 1.2117 level. On the higher side, the EUR/USD may find an immediate resistance at 1.2150 and 1.2196 level. Simultaneously, the closing of candles below the 1.2153 level can send the EUR/USD pair further lower until 1.2080. On the 4 hour timeframe, the EUR/USD has formed an upward channel, which is suggesting odds of further buying trend in the pair. The MACD is forming histograms above 0, suggesting odds of an upward trend in the market. Let’s consider the buying trend until the 1.2200 level today. 


GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD closed at 1.33651 after placing a high of 1.34410 and a low of 1.32875. The British Pound erased gains and slipped to a 3-week lowest level on Wednesday after the E.U.’s chief Brexit negotiator said that progress in talks had stalled and cooled the expectations that a deal was near.

Michel Barnier said that a deal was not guaranteed and signaled that differences over key issues, including access to the U.K. fishing waters and level playing field rules, were still there. A day before this news, reports suggested that post-Brexit trade talks had reached the so-called tunnel. Tunnel refers to a situation where both parties don’t leave until a consensus is reached.

Ahead of the update, there were signs the ongoing impasse was starting to frighten some members, who have called on the E.U. to start preparation for a no-deal scenario. There likely could be another twist to come in Brexit talks in the days ahead with the U.K.’s proposal for a new finance bill. This bill undermines some parts of the original Brexit Withdrawal agreement, and it could dent the little progress in negotiations seen so far.

Whereas, Barnier said that if the U.K. government moved ahead next week with draft clauses in the Finance Bill that were inconsistent with the Withdrawal Agreement, then the talks will come under crisis.

All these negative reports depressed Brexit’s expectations and started to weigh on British Pound that added losses in GBP/USD pair. The time for an end of Brexit transition period on December 31 has come near, and if a deal has not been reached by then, U.K. will have to follow WTO rules and regulations while trading with the E.U.

Meanwhile, on the data front, at 05:01 GMT, the BRC Shop Price Index for the year dropped to -1.8% against the forecasted -1.3% and weighed on British Pound and added pressure on GBP/USD pair. On the U.S. front, at 18:15 GMT, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change for November dropped to 307K against the anticipated 433K and weighed on the U.S. dollar, and capped further losses in the GBP/USD pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3340       1.3468

1.3263       1.3519

1.3212       1.3595

Pivot point: 1.3391

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading sideways in between a fresh trading range of 1.3305 – 1.3445. Breakout of this range can lead the Cable price towards the 1.3517 level. The volatility seems low ahead of the Christmas holidays. However, the European session can trigger a buying trend until the 1.3515 level, while support continues to stay at the 1.3305 level. A bearish breakout of the 1.3305 level can trigger selling until the 1.3212 level. The MACD and RSI are suggesting a bullish bias in the market. Let’s consider taking buying trades over 1.3305 and 1.3447 level today.


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 104.410 after placing a high of 104.749 and a low of 104.223. The USD/JPY pair raised for the third consecutive day on Wednesday amid the market’s optimism. However, most of USD/JPY’s daily gains were lost during the late trading session as U.S. stimulus raised.

The risk sentiment in the market was improved after the successful vaccine development from famous drug companies. Pfizer and BioNtech even received approval from the U.K. administration for emergency use authorization of their vaccine on Wednesday. Pfizer & BioNtech became the first in the world to get approval for the widespread use of their vaccine. It means that their vaccine can now be used to prevent the coronavirus officially, and it raised the risk sentiment in the market that ultimately added weight on the Japanese Yen due to its safe-haven nature; thus, it supported the upward momentum of the USD/JPY pair.

The Monetary Base for the year dropped to 16.5% against the forecasted 17.2%. At 09:59 GMT, Consumer Confidence raised to 33.7 against the anticipated 33.0 and supported the Japanese Yen that capped additional gains in the USD/JPY pair on Wednesday. At 18:15 GMT, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change for November fell to 307K against the estimated 433K and weighed on the U.S. dollar that limited the gains of the USD/JPY pair on Wednesday.

The prospects of a U.S. coronavirus relief package weighed on the greenback and forced the currency pair USD/JPY to lose most of its daily gains. As the $1.4trillion spending bill’s support increased, the top U.S. economic officials on Tuesday advised Congress to present more assistance for small businesses to survive during the pandemic.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker said on Wednesday that due to the increased spread of the coronavirus and delayed fiscal help along with the permanent job loss of some workers, the U.S. economic growth has been moderate.

Harker also forecasted moderate growth for the rest of this year and the first quarter of 2021. He also predicted that the economy would stay below pre-pandemic levels. Harker also said that if the vaccine is widely available by next spring and summer, then the growth will pick up in the second half of the next year. Harker added that more financial support was needed to get the economy to that point and to support low-income households.

Harker also said that the Central Bank’s emergency lending programs should be extended beyond next year as they are set to expire on December 31. Harker’s comments came in after Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin asked the Fed to return the unused funds. All these comments added pressure on the U.S. dollar as the continuous demand for a second stimulus bill weighed on local currency.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

104.13       104.54

103.95       104.77

103.72       104.95

Pivot point: 104.36

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading with a sideways trading range of 104.600 – 104.200, holding below an immediate resistance level of 104.600. On the lower side, the safe-haven currency pair may find support at the 103.719 level. The pair seems to disrupt the resistance level of 104.600, and if this happens, the USD/JPY may soar until the next resistance area of 105.030 level. The MACD and RSI support the buying trend, but we should only take buying positions over the 104.600 level today. Good luck!

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Dec 3 – PayPal and BlackRock Heads Extremely Bullish on Bitcoin; Crypto Sector Consolidating

The cryptocurrency sector has spent the day stabilizing after a sudden drop. Bitcoin is currently trading for $18,997, representing an increase of 0.48% compared to our last report. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price decreased 0.64% on the day, while XRP managed to lost 0.01%.

 Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

Decred gained 39.22% in the past 24 hours, making it the most prominent daily gainer in the top100. It is closely followed by Elrond’s 30.56% and Curve DAO Token’s 10.36% gain. On the other hand, Nexo lost 5.60%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by Status’s loss of 2.72% and Augur’s loss of 1.66%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s market dominance hasn’t changed since we last reported, with its value currently staying at 62.3%. This value represents a 0% difference when compared to yesterday’s value.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The crypto sector capitalization has increased significantly in the past 24 hours. Its current value is $571.05 billion, representing a $10.27 billion increase compared to our previous report.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

_______________________________________________________________________

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

Bitcoin has spent the day recovering from yesterday’s pullback and trying to regain $19,000. However, this level has proven to be a solid resistance zone, and it is unsure whether Bitcoin will manage to push over it. On the other hand, the overall sentiment around the largest cryptocurrency by market cap is incredibly bullish, mostly due to the massive investments coming from the institutional side.

Bitcoin is very volatile and unpredictable at the moment, making the trades quite hard to pull off. Traders should pay attention to volume and watch smaller time-frames and enter trades with a high profit/loss ratio to mitigate the risk when things go bad.

BTC/USD 4-hour chart

Bitcoin’s short-term technicals are completely bullish, while its weekly and monthly technicals show some signs of neutrality alongside the overall bullishness.

BTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Price is above its 50-period EMA and slightly above its 21-period EMA
  • Price is at its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (54.55)
  • Volume is average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $19,000                                 1: $18,790

2: $19,500                                 2: $18,500

3: $19,666                                  3: $18,240

Ethereum

Ethereum has spent the day mostly flat and hovering right under the $600 mark. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap has continuously failed to break the immediate resistance level but did not back down from it.

Ethereum traders have a good chance of catching a safe trade with a stop-loss slightly below $600 if Ether pushes above $600 (either because of its own price movement or as a response to Bitcoin breaking $19,000 with conviction).

ETH/USD 4-hour Chart

Ethereum’s daily and monthly technicals are completely bullish, while its 4-hour and weekly time-frames show some neutrality next to the overall bullishness.

ETH/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical Factors (4-hour Chart):
  • The price is above its 50-period and at its 21-period EMA
  • Price is at its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (54.35)
  • Volume is average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $600                                     1: $510

2: $630                                     2: $500 

3: $735                                      3: $490

Ripple

The fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap has had another slow day, with its price fluctuating between $0.6 and $0.64. The $0.6 support level seems to be holding quite well, while the $0.625 level got ignored several times, which made us remove it from the key levels section.

Trading XRP is almost impossible as the cryptocurrency currently has no volatility and (therefore) no trade opportunities.

XRP/USD 4-hour Chart

XRP’s daily and monthly technicals are completely bullish, while its 4-hour and weekly time-frames’ show bullish sentiment with a hint of neutrality.

XRP/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • The price is slightly above its 50-period EMA and at its 21-period EMA
  • Price is at its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (51.08)
  • Volume is slightly below average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $0.666                                   1: $0.6

2: $0.78                                     2: $0.596

3: $0.79                                   3: $0.535

 

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Dec 2 – Traders Sell the News on ETH 2.0 Phase 0 Launch; Crypto Market in the Red

The cryptocurrency sector has dipped as the market entered a “selloff” mode the moment Ethereum’s 2.0 Phase 0 launched. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap is currently trading for $18,843, representing a decrease of 3.83% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum lost 2.83% on the day, while XRP managed to lost 6.17%.

 Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

SushiSwap gained 34.83% in the past 24 hours, making it the most prominent daily gainer in the top100. It is closely followed by Kusama’s gain of 10.74% and Ampleforth’s 9.05% gain. On the other hand, HedgeTrade lost 10.21%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by Horizen’s loss of 9.44% and Ethereum Classic’s loss of 8.77%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s market dominance has decreased slightly since we last reported, with its value currently staying at 62.3%. This value represents a 0.1% difference to the downside when compared to yesterday’s value.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The crypto sector capitalization has decreased significantly in the past 24 hours. Its current value is $560.78 billion, representing a $17.09 billion increase compared to our previous report.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

_______________________________________________________________________

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

Bitcoin has spent the day pulling back from its all-time highs and towards the $18,500 level. Its price formed a triangle formation on the 30-minute time-frame right after the price dump (which happened at the exact moment ETH 2.0 Phase 0 launched, as people were selling the news) and then broke it to the downside. Its price is now fighting for the $18,790 level (78.6% Fib retracement).

Bitcoin is quite volatile and unpredictable at the moment, but short trades in either direction could be viable. Traders should pay attention to volume and watch smaller time-frames and catch formations to trade off of them.

BTC/USD 30-minute chart

Bitcoin’s technicals on all time-frames are slightly tilted towards the buy-side. However, they show slight neutrality signs, except for the monthly overview, which is completely bullish.

BTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Price is far above its 50-period EMA and at its 21-period EMA
  • Price is at its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is near the overbought territory (52.95)
  • Volume is average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $19,000                                 1: $18,790

2: $19,500                                 2: $18,500

3: $19,666                                  3: $18,240

Ethereum

Ethereum has, just like Bitcoin, pulled back as traders sold the news of ETH 2.0 Phase 0 launching. While its move wasn’t as pronounced, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap did lose quite a bit of value, as well as most likely confirmed its position below $600. The double top formation was confirmed, which added to the decisiveness of the drop.

Ethereum traders should pay close attention to Bitcoin’s movement, as it currently dictates the market direction regardless of what news moves the market (news on Bitcoin or any other altcoin).

ETH/USD 4-hour Chart

Ethereum’s daily and monthly technicals are completely bullish and show no signs of neutrality. However, its 4-hour and weekly time-frames’ sentiment is bullish but shows some neutrality.

ETH/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical Factors (4-hour Chart):
  • The price is far above its 50-period and at its 21-period EMA
  • Price is at its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is near being overbought (55.86)
  • Volume is average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $600                                     1: $510

2: $630                                     2: $500 

3: $735                                      3: $490

Ripple

The fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap had a pretty slow day, with its price hovering slightly above the $0.6 mark. Its price did feel the push towards the downside that the whole crypto sector experienced, but to a much lesser extent. XRP has found support at its 4-hour 50-period moving average, above which it is currently trading.

Trading XRP is almost certainly an inferior option to trading Bitcoin and Ethereum at the moment, as both the volume and volatility are low.

XRP/USD 4-hour Chart

XRP’s daily and monthly technicals are completely bullish and show no signs of neutrality. However, its 4-hour and weekly time-frames’ sentiment is bullish but shows some neutrality.

XRP/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • The price is slightly above its 50-period EMA and slightly below its 21-period EMA
  • Price is slightly below its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (49.86)
  • Volume is below average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $0.666                                   1: $0.625

2: $0.78                                     2: $0.596

3: $0.79                                   3: $0.535

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 02 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Advance NFP in Focus!

On Wednesday, the eyes will remain on the Fed Chair Powell Testifies, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate from the Eurozone. A primary focus will remain on the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change as this will help investors determine the odds of actual NFP data, which is due on Friday.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD closed at 1.20715 after placing a high of 1.20764 and a low of 1.19243. The EUR/USD surged above 1.2000 level and reached 1.20764 level, the highest level since May 2018 amid the optimism surrounding the coronavirus vaccine and broad-based U.S. dollar weakness.

Many factors were involved in the breakout of the EUR/USD pair on Tuesday above the 1.2000 level, including the latest optimism because of vaccine hopes, monetary stimulus from both sides, and the political certainty for a change. 

Pfizer and BioNtech were the first to report a high efficacy of 95% in a phase-3 coronavirus immunization trial on November 09. After that, many drug companies, including Moderna, AstraZeneca, Novavax, and Oxford University, also followed them. Pfizer and Moderna have already applied for emergency use authorization from the US FDA, and soon after getting the approval, these vaccines will be available for usage. Even Pfizer has sent its first mass shipment of vaccine to Chicago on Monday. All this vaccine optimism pushed the safe-haven U.S. dollar down and raised the risk sentiment in the market that supported the upward momentum of the EUR/USD pair on Tuesday.

On the stimulus front, the European Central Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve were set to expand their bond-buying schemes. Since the pandemic has started, the stimulus aid from ECB has supported the Eurozone’s economy by allowing governments to spend more. In the United States, the Federal Reserve’s dollar printing triggered a broad risk-on mood that also helped the riskier assets like EUR/USD pair to rise. 

On the Political certainty front, the U.S. elections have declared a final winner- Joe Biden. While outgoing President Donald Trump has been continuously crying foul, his attempts to overturn the elections failed, and investors continued to price the Joe Biden victory and selling the U.S. dollar. Moreover, the nomination of Janet Yellen as Treasury Secretary was also reassuring.

On the E.U. front, the political development in the upcoming Brexit deal has entered a tunnel as an intense final round of talks is in progress, and the results of talks are yet to be declared. All these factors combined and supported the EUR/USD pair’s upward momentum on Tuesday.

On the data front, at 13:15 GMT, the Spanish manufacturing PMI for November declined to 49.8 against the forecasted 50.8 and weighed on Euro. At 13:45 GMT, the Italian Manufacturing PMI also dropped to 51.5 against the projected 52.0 and weighed on the single currency. At 13:50 GMT, the French Final Manufacturing PMI raised to 49.6 from the expected 49.1 and supported Euro. AT 13:55 GMT, the German Final Manufacturing PMI stayed the same at 57.8. The German Unemployment Change came in as -39K against the expected 9K and supported the single currency. At 14:00 GMT, the Final Manufacturing PMI from the Eurozone remained flat with the expected 53.8. At 15:00 GMT, the CPI Flash Estimate for the year dropped to -0.3% against the estimated -0.2% and weighed n Euro. The Core CPI Flash Estimate for the year came in line as expected 0.2%. 

On the U.S. front, at 20:00 GMT, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for November fell to 5.75 against the forecasted 5.9 and weighed on the U.S. dollar and supported the upward momentum of the EUR/USD pair. The Construction Spending for October surged to 1.3% against the estimated 0.8% and supported the U.S. dollar. The ISM Manufacturing Prices for November also surged to 65.4 against the forecasted 65.0 and helped the U.S. dollar. The Wards Total Vehicle Sales from the U.S. declined to 15.6M against the estimated 16.1M and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added further gains in EUR/USD pair.

Given the above manufacturing data, the Eurozone economy’s outlook looks somewhat better than the United States outlook that added extra pressure on the U.S. dollar and helped the EUR/USD pair to place highs above the 1.200 level on Tuesday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.1971       1.2122

1.1873       1.2175

1.1819       1.12273

Pivot point: 1.2024

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD surged dramatically on the back of risk-on sentiment amid positive reports over the COVID19 vaccine, which dragged the pair higher above the 1.2074 level. On the higher side, the violation of the 1.2010 resistance level is now working as a support, and it can lead the pair further higher until 1..2160. The bullish bias remains dominant today, especially over the 1.2015 level. However, the EUR/USD pair has recently formed a tweezers top pattern around 1.2076, suggesting the odds of bearish retracement. In this case, the EUR/USD can also drop until the support level of 1.2017 that marks 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Let’s keep an eye on the 1.2060 support level today. 


GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD closed at 1.34224 after placing a high of 1.34424 and a low of 1.33149. After placing losses for three consecutive days, the GBP/USD pair rose on Tuesday and recorded gains on the back of broad-based U.S. dollar weakness and increased Brexit hopes. The GBP/USD pair hit the highs at 1.3400 level on Tuesday over the positive Brexit news after the Times Radio’s Chief Political Commentator Tom Newton Dunn tweeted the U.K. and E.U. trade deal talks have entered a mythical tunnel. Though either side formally confirmed or rejected the “tunnel” status of negotiations after his tweet. 

The tunnel refers to a state of intense negotiation that essentially ends up having some agreement between both parties, and before that, neither side leaves. Though it does not guarantee a deal will be made, it shows a strong willingness/commitment from both sides to work as hard as possible to get a compromise. After this tweet by Dunn, the GBP/USD pair started to gain traction and rise in the financial market due to increased demand for British Pound. 

On the other hand, the GBP/USD pair’s gains could also be attributed to the U.S. dollar’s weakness. The greenback was weak across the board after the release of poor macroeconomic data and the rising number of coronavirus cases in the U.S.

The top U.S. health officials announced plans on Tuesday to begin vaccinating Americans against the coronavirus as early as mid-December amid the increasing death from coronavirus. The nationwide deaths hit the highest number for a single day in six months in the U.S. and raised economic recovery fears that led to the U.S. dollar’s weakness and improved GBP/USD pair.

On the data front, at 20:00 GMT, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for November declined to 5.75 against the estimated 5.9 and weighed on the U.S. dollar and supported the bullish momentum of the GBP/USD pair. For October, the Construction Spending rose to 1.3% against the projected 0.8% and helped the U.S. dollar. The ISM Manufacturing Prices for November also raised to 65.4 against the estimated 65.0 and supported the U.S. dollar. The Wards Total Vehicle Sales from the U.S. fell to 15.6M against the anticipated 16.1M and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added further gains in GBP/USD pair.

On Britain front, at 12:00 GMT, the Nationwide HPI for November raised to 0.9% against the forecasted 0.2% and supported the British Pound that added further gains in GBP/USD pair on Tuesday. At 14:30 GMT, the Final Manufacturing PMI also raised to 55.6 against the expected 55.2 and supported the British Pound that added further gains in GBP/USD pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3316       1.3342

1.3301       1.3353

1.3290       1.3368

Pivot point: 1.3327

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading sideways, having violated the narrow trading range of 1.3397 – 1.3304. The market is expected to display choppy sessions with a new limited range of 1.3397 to 1.3452 level. The violation of a triple top resistance level of 1.3397 level is now working as a support, and it may trigger a bounce off in the Cable until 1.3452 and 1.3512 level. Let’s keep an eye on the 1.3397 level to stay bullish above this level today. 


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 104.305 after placing a high of 104.576 and a low of 104.180. The USD/JPY pair stayed on a bullish track on Tuesday despite the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness due to increased risk flow in the market. The stock markets have been buoyed by the news that the first coronavirus vaccine could be administered by the end of the year. Despite the acceleration of the pandemic in the U.S. and many other parts of the world, the riskier assets gained on the back of improved risk sentiment due to vaccine hopes. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) that measures the U.S. dollar value against the six currencies basket fell to 92 levels on Tuesday.

The pair rose above 104.5 level on Tuesday amid the broad-based risk sentiment in the market over the optimism surrounding the vaccine hopes. However, the gains in USD.JPY pair started to fade away in the late trading session after the US ISM Manufacturing PMI release for November. In November, the declining manufacturing activity was the proof of halted manufacturing activity due to the rising number of restrictive measures in many states of America due to escalated second wave of coronavirus.

At 04:30 GMT, the Unemployment Rate from Japan for October remained flat with the expectations of 3.1%. At 04:50 GMT, the Capital Spending for the quarter from Japan came in as -10.6% against the expected -12.0% and supported the Japanese Yen that limited the USD/JPY pair’s gains. AT 05:30 GMT, the Final Manufacturing PMI from Japan also raised to 49.0 against the expected 48.3 and supported the Japanese Yen that capped further gains in the USD/JPY pair.

On the U.S. dollar front, at 20:00 GMT, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for November fell to 5.75 against the projected 5.9 and weighed on the U.S. dollar that capped further gains in the USD/JPY pair. For October, the Construction Spending surged to 1.3% against the estimated 0.8% and supported the U.S. dollar and added gains in the USD/JPY pair. The ISM Manufacturing Prices for November also rose to 65.4 against the expected 65.0 and helped the U.S. dollar that added additional gains in the USD/JPY pair. The Wards Total Vehicle Sales from the U.S. dropped to 15.6M against the expected 16.1M and weighed on the U.S. dollar that capped further gains in the USD/JPY pair.

Meanwhile, the U.S. death rate because of the COVID-19 virus has also increased to an alarming level as it posted the highest number for a single day in six months. The Top U.S. health official announced plans on Tuesday to begin vaccinating Americans against the coronavirus as early as mid-December. This statement also raised the risk sentiment and added weight on the Japanese Yen that supported the USD/JPY pair’s upward momentum on Tuesday.

Furthermore, On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that the United States economy’s outlook was extraordinarily uncertain due to increased numbers of coronavirus cases that have affected the U.S. economy hardly. 

In his testimony to the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs, Powell said that the increasing number of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. and abroad were concerning. He said that until the people were confident about re-engaging the economic activities confidently, full economic recovery was impossible. At the same time, Powell was upbeat over the recent optimistic news on vaccine development worldwide.

Meanwhile, several programs set by the Federal Reserve in March are near to end of the year. In response to this, Powell stated that these programs would help unlock almost $2 trillion funding. After this report, the USD/JPY pair started losing its early daily gains as the greenback became weak across the board due to rising hopes for stimulus measure.

Furthermore, On Tuesday, the outgoing Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin also testified before the Senate and urged lawmakers to pass a second stimulus bill quickly. This also added in the U.S. dollar weakness and capped further gains in the USD/JPY pair on Tuesday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

104.03       104.16

103.97       104.23

103.91       104.29

Pivot point: 104.10

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading with a sideways trading range of 104.600 – 104.200, holding below an immediate resistance level of 104.600. On the lower side, the safe-haven currency pair may find support at the 103.719 level. The pair seems to disrupt the resistance level of 104.600, and if this happens, the USD/JPY may soar until the next resistance area of 105.030 level. The MACD and RSI support the buying trend, but we should only take buying positions over the 104.600 level today. Good luck!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 01 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Manufacturing PMI Figures in Highlights!

Eyes will remain on the series of Manufacturing PMI figures from the Eurozone, UK, Canada, and the U.S. Although it is a low impact event, it may help determine the market sentiment today. The U.S. Fed Chair Powell will be in highlight as he is due to testify on the CARES Act before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, in Washington DC. Lastly, the ECB President Lagarde is also due to speak at an online event hosted by the Atlantic Council; however, it is now expected to significantly influence the Euro.

Economic Events to Watch Today  


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD closed at 1.19547 after placing a high of 1.20030 and a low of 1.19235. The currency pair EUR/USD surpassed the 1.20000 level on Monday amid the rising risk sentiment in the market and decreasing U.S. dollar; however, the pair started to lose its gains and ended up posting losses for the day.

The EUR/USD pair continued its bullish movement in the early trading session on Monday as the risk sentiment improved with more positive news from the coronavirus vaccine side. Pfizer has sent the first mass shipment of its vaccine to Chicago on Monday. Whereas, Moderna has applied for emergency use authorization of its vaccine from the US FDA on Monday. Both these latest reports from the vaccine side added further strength in the risk sentiment as it showed progress in steps that would eventually lead to global economic recovery.
The improved risk sentiment because of optimism regarding vaccine and economic recovery gave strength to riskier assets like EUR/USD pair on Monday.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar’s weakness also played an essential role in raising the currency pair EUR/USD above the 1.2000 level. The U.S. dollar was weak across the board due to the latest announcement that Congress has started its brief session to pass the next stimulus package for coronavirus.

Furthermore, both sides’ macroeconomic data were also in favor of pushing the currency pair EUR/USD near its mid-August high level on Monday. From the European Union side, The German Prelim CPI for November came in as -0.8% against the forecasted -0.7% and weighed on the single currency Euro. At 13:00 GMT, Spanish Flash CPI for the year came in as -0.8% against the forecasted -0.9% and supported Euro. At 15:00 GMT, the Italian Prelim CPI for November came in as -0.1%against the forecasted -0.2% and supported the single currency Euro.

On the U.S. dollar front, At 19:45 GMT, the Chicago PMI for November dropped to 58.2 against the anticipated 59.4 and weighed on the U.S. dollar. At 20:00 GMT, the Pending Home Sales for October fell to -1.1% against the estimated 1.1% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. However, the gains in the EUR/USD pair failed to remain till the end of the trading day and started to reverse in late trading hours amid the concerns of coronavirus pandemic in Europe. The outlook for the largest economy in the Eurozone, Germany, became increasingly uncertain due to the rising number of coronavirus cases surpassed above 1 Million.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.1962       1.1976
1.1954       1.1982
1.1948       1.1991
Pivot point: 1.1968

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The market’s technical side remains mostly unchanged on the back of a limited number of economic events on the calendar. The EUR/USD pair is trading with a bullish bias at the 1.1955 area, facing immediate resistance at the 1.2000 area. Closing of candles above the 1.1915 support level suggests odds of bullish bias in the EUR/USD as this level is extended by an ascending triangle breakout pattern. On the lower side, the EUR/USD may find support at the 1.1912 and the 1.1865 areas; however, bullish bias remains stable over the 1.1912 level.


GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD closed at 1.33229 after placing a high of 1.33856 and a low of 1.32911. The GBP/USD pair tried to rise and post gains for Monday but failed to do so and continued its bearish streak for the third consecutive day. The rise in GBP/USD pair in the earlier trading session on Monday was due to the hopes that there was little progress in Brexit talks between U.K. and E.U. to settle disputes on several issues, including the fishing quotas.

The rise in British Pound was due to the latest comments from French European Affairs Minister Clement Beaune. On Monday, he said that he hoped to see an agreement in the next few days and called on negotiators to leap required. He acknowledged that two sticking issues, U.K. fishing waters and the so-called level-playing field for business, are still unresolved.

As both sides have already warned each other that the time was running out, a French presidency official said on Monday that Britain should clarify its positions and consult to find a Brexit deal on its association with the European Union. He added that the E.U. also has the interest to fight for, to give fair competition for its businesses and fishermen. He said that the Union has made a clear and balanced offer for a future partnership with Britain and that the E.U. will not accept a substandard deal that would not respect the E.U.’s interests.

On the other hand, Boris Johnson’s officials believed that the Brexit trade deal could be reached within days if both sides continue working in good faith to resolve fishing rights’ big obstacle. The U.K.’s Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab called on the E.U. to recognize that regaining control over British waters was the question of sovereignty for Britain. He said that talks were going good and he believed a deal on fish might be achievable during the final week of talks.

These optimistic and hopeful comments from both sides added strength to the GBP/USD pair on Monday during the early trading session. Still, the currency pair failed to maintain its gains and started to decline and post losses for the day despite the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness due to insufficient macroeconomic data on the day.

On the U.S. dollar front, at 19:45 GMT, the Chicago PMI for November fell to 58.2 against the estimated 59.4 and weighed on the U.S. dollar. At 20:00 GMT, the Pending Home Sales for October also declined to -1.1% against the projected 1.1% and weighed on the U.S. dollar that capped further losses in GBP/USD pair.

From the Britain side, at 14:30 GMT, the M4 Money Supply for October from Britain was dropped to 0.6% against the forecasted 1.0% and weighed on British Pound and added further losses in GBP/USD pair. The Net Lending to Individuals for October also declined to 3.7B against the expected 4.7B and weighed on British Pound and supported the bearish momentum in GBP/USD pair. At 14:32 GMT, Mortgage Approvals for October raised to 98K against the anticipated 85K and supported British Pound and capped further losses in the currency pair.

Meanwhile, the GBP/USD pair’s bearish trend was continued for the third consecutive day because of the rising fears that the U.K. and E.U. will end up having no-deal at the end of the transition period that is due on December 31. Only a month has left behind to resolve both parties’ issues, and none of them has shown any lenience. If both sides failed to reach a deal by the end of the deadline, then the U.K. will be forced to trade with the E.U. under the World Trade Organization terms that will not be good for both sides.


Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3316       1.3342
1.3301       1.3353
1.3290       1.3368
Pivot point: 1.3327

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading sideways, within a narrow trading range of 1.3397 – 1.3304. The market is likely to exhibit choppy sessions until this narrow trading range gets violated. On the higher side, the GBP/USD is facing a triple top level at the 1.3397 level; however, the bullish breakout of the 1.3397 level can trigger a buying trend until the 1.3454 level. On the lower side, the Cable is supported over 1.3350 level, supported by an upward channel on the four hourly charts. The MACD suggests a buying trend, and we should look for a buy trade over the 1.3325 level or 1.3400 level today.


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 104.289 after placing a high of 104.384 and a low of 103.830. After placing losses for two consecutive days, the USD/JPY pair rose on Monday as the U.S. dollar rebounds.

The broad-based U.S. dollar weakness in the early trading session pushed the USD/JPY pair lower after the hopes for the U.S. stimulus measure raised. However, Wall Street’s main indexes’ poor performance allowed the U.S. dollar to remain firm against its peers. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 indexes lost about 1.2% and 0.78% respectively on Monday, which added strength to the U.S. dollar and pushed the USD/JPY pair higher.

Meanwhile, on Monday, US Health Secretary Alex Azar said that Americans could get their first shot of coronavirus vaccine before Christmas if all thing went well. These comments from Azar added further strength in risk-sentiment and weighed on the safe metal Japanese Yen that added gains in USD/JPY pair. Furthermore, on Monday, Moderna applied for emergency authorization with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to start using its vaccine to reduce the effect of coronavirus. Pfizer and BioNtech, which has already filed for similar FDA approval earlier this month, sent the first mass shipment of its COVID-19 vaccine to Chicago through United Airlines on Friday. This positive news from the drug companies added optimism in the market and weighed on the safe-haven Japanese Yen that added further gains in the USD/JPY pair.

On the data front, at 04:50 GMT, the Prelim Industrial Production for October from Japan raised to 3.8% against the forecasted 2.3% and supported the Japanese Yen that capped further gains in the USD/JPY pair. The Retail Sales for the year from Japan stayed the same as expected by 6.4%. At 10:00 GMT, the Housing Starts for the year came from Japan came in as -8.3% against the forecasted -9.0% and supported the Japanese Yen.

On the U.S. dollar front, at 19:45 GMT, the Chicago PMI for November declined to 58.2 against the expected 59.4 and weighed on the U.S. dollar that capped further gains in the USD/JPY pair. At 20:00 GMT, the Pending Home Sales for October fell to -1.1% against the estimated 1.1% and weighed on the U.S. dollar that capped further gains in the USD/JPY pair.
Another factor involved in the risk sentiment that supported the upward momentum of the USD/JPY pair on Monday was the start of a brief session of Congress over the issue of a second stimulus bill for the coronavirus pandemic. The Democrats and Republicans were under dispute over the size of the stimulus package, and now that the Presidency has shifted from Republicans to Democrats after the victory of Joe Biden, it could be expected that a massive stimulus is on its way that would curb the effects of COVID-19 and support the risk sentiment of the market. The improved risk demand added pressure on the safe-haven Japanese yen and supported the USD/JPY pair on Monday. Another factor involved in the gains of the US/JPY pair was Pfizer’s vaccine’s shipment to Chicago on Monday, along with the latest application by Moderna to FDA for emergency use authorization of its vaccine.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

104.03       104.16
103.97       104.23
103.91      104.29
Pivot point: 104.10

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading with a sideways trading range of 104.475, holding below an immediate resistance level of 104.478. On the lower side, the safe-haven currency pair may find support at the 103.719 level. The pair seems to disrupt the resistance level of 104.478, and if this happens, the USD/JPY may soar until the next resistance area of 105.030 level. The MACD and RSI support the buying trend, but we should only take buying positions over the 104.500 level today. Good luck!

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Dec 1 – Bitcoin’s New Monthly All-Time High; Ethereum 2.0 Phase 0 Launches Today

The cryptocurrency sector has pushed further up as Bitcoin made a new all-time high for a moment. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap is currently trading for $19,443, representing an increase of 5.03% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum gained 3.45% on the day, while XRP managed to gain 3.78%.

 Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

BitTorrent gained 18.25% in the past 24 hours, making it the most prominent daily gainer in the top100. It is closely followed by Litecoin’s gain of 11.22% and Decentraland’s 7.69% gain. On the other hand, Numeraire lost 4.81%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by Waves’ loss of 5.78 and Zilliqa’s loss of 3.36%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s market dominance has increased slightly since we last reported, with its value currently staying at 62.4%. This value represents a 0.7% difference to the upside compared to the value it had yesterday.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The crypto sector capitalization has increased significantly in the past 24 hours. Its current value is $577.86 billion, representing a $24.86billion increase compared to our previous report.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

_______________________________________________________________________

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

Bitcoin has spent the day continuing its push towards the upside, even posting a new all-time high (on most exchanges) for a moment as it reached $19,864 on Bitstamp. However, the 20,000 mark and BitMEX’s $20,093 remain untouched. With the buys on exchanges and derivatives markets and institutional investments, a strong all-time high might be posted extremely soon.

Bitcoin trading is quite hard at the moment simply due to how the cryptocurrency moves. Still, traders can squeeze a profit if they trade along with the main trend and long Bitcoin when the volume increases.

BTC/USD 4-hour Chart

Bitcoin’s technicals on all time-frames are tilted towards the buy-side but show slight neutrality signs, or even slight signs of bearishness.

BTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Price is far above both its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
  • Price is near its top Bollinger band
  • RSI is near the overbought territory (69.43)
  • Volume is average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $19,500                                 1: $19,000

2: $19,666                                 2: $18,790

3: $20,000                                  3: $18,500

Ethereum

Ethereum has, just like Bitcoin, continued its climb up. However, the move has stopped slightly below its most recent highs, topping at $617.87. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap now has two scenarios to play out:

  1. It can create a double top and start moving back towards the supporting levels;
  2. It can continue moving up on fundamentals and break the recent high and the recent trading patterns it created.

Ethereum’s current fundamental outlook is extremely bullish due to its Phase 0 of Ethereum 2.0 launching. This, along with Bitcoin moving towards the upside, has made trading any potential pullbacks quite impossible due to the amount of potential risk such trade would carry.

ETH/USD 4-hour Chart

Ethereum’s 4-hour, daily, and monthly technicals are extremely bullish and show no signs of neutrality. On the other hand, its weekly time-frame’s sentiment is bullish but shows some neutrality.

ETH/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical Factors (4-hour Chart):
  • The price is far above both its 50-period and its 21-period EMA
  • Price is near its top Bollinger band
  • RSI is near being overbought (68.63)
  • Volume is average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $600                                     1: $510

2: $630                                     2: $500 

3: $735                                      3: $490

Ripple

The fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap has tried moving up, as well, but in a much tamer manner. XRP has established its presence above $0.625 and pushed towards $0.666, which stopped the move. XRP will most likely continue trading in a range-bound by $0.666 to the upside and either $0.625 or $0.596 to the downside

Trading XRP is quite difficult at the moment, and trading Bitcoin or Ethereum is potentially more profitable and slightly more straightforward.

XRP/USD 4-hour Chart

XRP’s technicals on the 4-hour and weekly time-frames are bullish but show some signs of neutrality. On the other hand, its daily and monthly overviews are completely bullish.

XRP/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • The price is above its 50-period EMA and slightly above its 21-period EMA
  • Price is between its middle and top Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (60.95)
  • Volume is average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $0.666                                   1: $0.625

2: $0.78                                     2: $0.596

3: $0.79                                   3: $0.535

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, November 30 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – ECB President Lagarde Speaks!

On the news front, the eye will remain on the ECB President Lagarde Speaks, OPEC Meetings, Chicago PMI, and Pending Home Sales m/m. The U.S. events are expected to perform badly, and the dollar index can bear a bearish hit.

Economic Events to Watch Today  


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.19637 after placing a high of 1.19637 and a low of 1.19060. EUR/USD pair raised near its highest level since August amid the increasing risk-on sentiment. Due to Thanksgiving celebrations, the EUR/USD pair continued to move higher in the upward direction in the absence of U.S. traders.

The risk perceived EUR/USD pair gained traction on Friday after the optimism surrounding the market related to the coronavirus vaccine increased. The hopes for a quick economic recovery also increased along with the vaccine progress and supported the market’s risk sentiment that lifted the global equity market on Friday.

The news regarding vaccines from several candidates and their efficacy rates raised hopes that the economy would come back to its pre-pandemic levels, and that weighed on the safe-haven greenback. The U.S. dollar was also weak across the board after the smooth transition of the White House. Joe Biden is set to take power on January 20, and he is expected to work on a second stimulus bill that would weigh on the U.S. dollar.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) that measures the U.S. dollar value against the six currencies basket was also under pressure and at a new monthly low level at 91.8 level on Friday. The U.S. dollar weakness combined with the vaccine optimism added strength in the EUR/USD pair and helped it reach near its highest since mid-August level.

Meanwhile, the single currency Euro was also strong on Friday after releasing strong macroeconomic data from the European Union. At 12:00 GMT, German Import Prices for October raised to 0.3% against the expected 0.1% and supported Euro. At 12:45 GMT, the French Consumer Spending for October also raised to 3.7% from the forecasted 3.6% and supported the single currency Euro. The French Prelim CPI for November surged to 0.2% against the forecasted 0.0% and supported Euro. The French Prelim GDP for the quarter also surged to 18.7% against the anticipated 18.2% and supported Euro. The Euro’s strength added further gains in the already rising EUR/USD pair and pushed it higher on board.
The rising risk sentiment in the market also supported the stock market worldwide as the outlook of the upcoming year 2021 was improved due to the successful development of the coronavirus vaccine.

Furthermore, the victory of Joe Biden in the U.S. Presidential elections also added positivity to the market mood because he has signaled a more promising approach toward international relations, unlike Trump. Due to his promise of keeping smooth trade relations with China and other countries, the favorable global trade conditions improved the global risk sentiment and supported the riskier assets like EUR/USD pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.1885      1.1934

1.1859      1.1957

1.1836      1.1983

Pivot point: 1.1908

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD pair is trading with a bullish bias at the 1.1974 area, facing immediate resistance at the 1.1975 area. Closing of candles below this level suggests chances of bearish correction as the pair has entered the overbought zone. However, the bullish breakout of the 1.1975 level can extend the buying trend until the next resistance level of the 1.2010 level. The bullish bias remains dominants today. Let us consider taking a selling trade below the 1.1979 level, and above this, the next target stays at 1.1997.


GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.33066 after placing a high of 1.33815 and a low of 1.32856. The GBP/USD pair continued its previous day’s bearish move and extended its losses on Friday amid the increased Brexit worries. Despite the positive risk environment in the market, the currency pair GBP/USD pair posted losses for the day on Friday as the deadline for the transition period was coming closer day by day, and a deal has still not been secured. With only 34 days left for the Brexit-transition period to end, the pressure on both sides, the E.U. and the U.K., has increased to reach a deal by Saturday to complete the required paper-work legislation process in time.

Chief EU negotiator Michel Barnier reached London for in-person talks after completing his quarantine, and this was the only positive news surrounding Brexit. UK PM Boris Johnson has said that the U.K. will prosper with or without a deal, and the likelihood of a deal is dependent on the E.U. There were still disagreements on Fisheries, governance, and level playing field that needed to sort out to reach a deal.

The rising uncertainty regarding Brexit has been weighing on the local currency British Pound. The E.U. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, along with the E.U. chief negotiator Barnier, said that they do not know if a deal was possible as the talks were in progress.

On Friday, Barnier told MEPs that he was prepared for a further four days of make-or-break Brexit negotiations, with growing skepticism among E.U. member states about the utility of further talks. Barnier has said that he would work through the weekend and then maybe one-or-two more days in the last-ditch attempt to bridge the large gaps between both sides and reach a deal.

E.U. sources have said that there was a growing feeling that the lack of progress and the need to prepare businesses for the consequences of a no-deal British departure from the E.U. made it unwise for talks to continue beyond then. These concerning statements from both sides have weighed on British Pound and added losses in GBP/USD pair.
Whereas, the U.K.’s foreign minister Dominic Raab said on Sunday that the next week would be very significant for Brexit, in reply to how near the deadline was in trade talks with the European Union. He said that this was a very significant week, the last real major week, subject to further postponement.

As the last 4-6 days for securing a Brexit deal have reached, the local currency pressure also increased and weighed on Sterling that ultimately weighed o GBP/USD pair ahead of any decision despite the improved risk sentiment in the market because of vaccines progress.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3319     1.3397
1.3281     1.3437
1.3241     1.3475
Pivot point: 1.3359

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD traded in line with our previous forecast to hit the support level of 1.333, which is extended by an upward channel. On the higher side, Cable may find resistance at 1.3400 level that’s extended by the double top pattern on the two-hour timeframe. Simultaneously, the bullish crossover of the 1.3400 level is likely to open additional room for buying until the 1.3446 level. On the 4 hour timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has formed a bullish channel that supports the pair at the 1.333 area, and violation of this level on the lower side can drive a sharp selling trend until the 1.3270 mark. The RSI and MACD are suggesting a selling trend in sterling. However, I will prefer to open a buying trade over the 1.3330 area and selling trade below the same level today.


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 104.064 after placing a high of 104.279 and a low of 103.904. Despite the improved risk-on market sentiment, the USD/JPY pair dropped for the second consecutive session amid the U.S. dollar weakness. The U.S. dollar weakness was driven by the increased expectations of a large-scale stimulus from the new Biden administration to combat the coronavirus pandemic. Joe Biden has been fighting to provide massive stimulus support to the economy to fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. As he has won the U.S. Presidential elections and is now due to take power on January 20, the chances for a massive stimulus fiscal support to the economy has increased and weighed on the U.S. dollar.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) that tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies was down by 0.1% to a 3-months lower level at 91.8. The trade market volume was also limited, keeping the U.S. dollar under pressure due to Thanksgiving Holiday in the U.S. as many traders were enjoying a long weekend.

Meanwhile, the environment around U.S. politics also got better with President Trump’s latest decision to leave office regarding Electoral College votes for Biden. This smooth transition of power in the White House also supported the risk-on market sentiment and weighed over the safe-haven greenback that added losses in the currency pair USD/JPY.
Furthermore, on the data front, at 04:30 GMT, the Tokyo Core CPI for the year came in as -0.7% against the expected -0.6% and weighed on the Japanese Yen and capped further losses in the USD/JPY pair on Friday.
The risk-on market sentiment failed to impress the USD/JPY buyers. The traders were more focused on the U.S. dollar’s weakness instead of the rising optimism surrounding the global economic recovery due to vaccine development.

Several candidates worldwide, including Pfizer & BioNtech, Moderna, and AstraZeneca, have reported a 60-95% efficacy rate of their vaccine ad said that it would be available for use within weeks as some have applied for US FDA approval for emergency authorization use.

AstraZeneca vaccine is considered the cheapest vaccine as it can be stored at ordinary room temperature or refrigerator temperature, but it requires two dosages to reach a 90% efficacy rate. The hopes for global economic recovery and the outlook for 2021 have improved and weighed on the safe-haven U.S. dollar that ultimately added pressure on the USD/JPY pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

104.27      104.63

104.09      104.79

103.92      104.98

Pivot point: 104.44

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY pair’s recent price action has violated the choppy trading range of 104.700 – 104.056. On the lower side, the USD/JPY pair can drop further until the next support level of 103.667 level, especially after the breakout of the 104.150 support level. On the higher side, a bullish breakout of 104.700 resistance can extend the buying trend until the next resistance area of 104.700 and 105.063 level. On the lower side, the support continues to hold around the 103.667 level. The MACD suggests selling bias in the USD/JPY pair; thus, we should consider selling trade below 104.150 and buying above the same. Good luck!

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Nov 30 – Ethereum Soars on Great Fundamentals; Bitcoin Bulls Back in the Game

The cryptocurrency sector has spent the weekend regaining what was lost during the crash on Nov 25. Almost every single cryptocurrency in the top100 ended up being in the green. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap is currently trading for $18,369, representing an increase of 4.43% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum gained 9.79% on the day, while XRP managed to gain 6.67%.

 Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

Kusama gained 19.14% in the past 24 hours, making it the most prominent daily gainer in the top100. It is closely followed by Ampleforth’s gain of 16.24% and Zilliqa’s 13.48% gain. On the other hand, Numeraire Coin lost 5.56%, making it the most prominent daily loser. There were no other cryptocurrencies in the top100 that lost over 1% of its value.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s market dominance has decreased slightly since we last reported, with its value currently staying at 61.7%. This value represents a 0.5% difference to the downside compared to the value it had on Friday.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The crypto sector capitalization has increased significantly over the weekend. Its current value is $553.00 billion, representing a $38.14 billion increase compared to our previous report.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

_______________________________________________________________________

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

Bitcoin has spent the weekend recovering from the Nov 25 crash. The price was slowly going up over the weekend, creeping up to and past $18,000 once again. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap is currently between its 61.8% and 78.6% Fib retracement levels, and a break to either side of this range may determine its short-term fate.

Bitcoin’s short-term future will greatly depend on if it breaks its immediate support or resistance level. In both cases, a strong rally towards that side may form, so traders should be prepared to “catch” the trade quickly.

BTC/USD 1-hour Chart

Bitcoin’s daily, weekly, and monthly technicals are tilted towards the buy-side but show slight neutrality signs. On the other hand, its 4-hour technicals are completely bullish.

BTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Price is above both its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
  • Price is near its top Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (62.26)
  • Volume is average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $18,500                                 1: $17,850

2: $18,790                                 2: $17,450

3: $19,000                                  3: $17,000

Ethereum

Ethereum has, just like Bitcoin, been climbing back and trying to reach its recent highs. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap is currently fighting to pass the 78.6% Fib retracement level, sitting at $592.5. If this level gets conquered with conviction, we may expect another run past $600.

Ethereum’s current fundamental outlook is very bullish due to its Phase 0 of Ethereum 2.0 launching. This, combined with Bitcoin moving towards the upside, has made trading any potential pullbacks impossible due to how risky it would be.

ETH/USD 4-hour Chart

Ethereum’s 4-hour, daily, and monthly technicals are completely bullish and show no signs of neutrality. On the other hand, its sentiment seen in the weekly time-frame’s is bullish but shows some neutrality.

ETH/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical Factors (4-hour Chart):
  • The price is far above both its 50-period and its 21-period EMA
  • Price is at its top Bollinger band
  • RSI is near being overbought(68.26)
  • Volume is average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $600                                     1: $510

2: $630                                     2: $500 

3: $735                                      3: $490

Ripple

The fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap has spent the weekend trying to maintain its level after a small rally that took its price from $0.55 to $0.65. XRP seems to be trading in a range, bound by the 38.2% Fib retracement ($0.582) and 61.8% Fib retracement ($0.657).

Trading XRP may not be optimal as trading Bitcoin, or Ethereum is potentially more profitable and slightly more straightforward.

XRP/USD 2-hour Chart

XRP’s technicals on shorter time-frames (4-hour and daily) are extremely bullish, while its weekly and monthly overviews show some signs of neutrality and bearishness (though they are still bullish).

XRP/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • The price is above its 50-period EMA and slightly above its 21-period EMA
  • Price is between its middle and top Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (58.86)
  • Volume is average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $0.657                                   1: $0.625

2: $0.711                                     2: $0.582

3: $0.79                                  3: $0.535

 

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

BTC/USD Weekly Chart Analysis + Possible Outcomes

In this weekly BTC/USD analysis, we will be taking a brief look at the most recent events, current chart technical formations, as well as the possible BTC short-term price outcomes.

Overview

Bitcoin has spent the past week experiencing a long-awaited pullback, after which it started consolidating. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap has dropped significantly and reached as low as $16,200 before bears reached exhaustion after failing to break its all-time high. While some analysts are calling for an end of the pullback, most of the data shows otherwise. First off, the current controversy around China seizing 1% of all Bitcoin is contributing towards the overall bearish sentiment. Second, a poll done on crypto investors says that the majority of investors believe that BTC will end up correcting as much as 40%. All this, plus the fact that Bitcoin couldn’t push past $17,260 for a couple of days now, is a testament to the short-term bearish sentiment.

On the other hand, people shouldn’t mistake this for a long-term bearish trend. In fact, Bitcoin has never been more bullish long-term.

Technical factors



Bitcoin has continued moving up and performed exactly what we called last week (a push towards the all-time high). Once again, as expected, the push didn’t break the all-time high and has triggered a strong pullback. Bears have reached exhaustion at just over $16,000 and Bitcoin has started consolidating in a range, bound by $17,260 (both horizontal resistance and a 100-period moving average) to the upside and $16,420 to the downside.

The hash ribbons indicator still shows a buy/accumulate signal as it points out to miner capitulation.

Likely Outcomes

Bitcoin’s movement is a bit less obvious this week when compared to the past weeks. The cryptocurrency has a couple of scenarios it can play out as it leaves the current range-bound trading.

1: If Bitcoin breaks the range to the downside (slightly less likely), its most likely target will be $15,500. Due to the short-term bearish sentiment surrounding Bitcoin at the moment, a short trade doesn’t have to be considered as “trading against the large trend” and may actually be a good profit-making opportunity.

In this case, a clear stop-loss should be set a little above $16,420.

2: The second (just slightly more likely) scenario happens if Bitcoin manages to break the $17,260 mark. In this case, the cryptocurrency can reach many targets, but will most likely pass the $17,600 immediate resistance and push higher. The next zone of resistance after that is the $18,250-$18,450.

Trading Bitcoin’s sideways action in a current range is not advised as the price could break out of it at any time.

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Nov 27 – Satoshi Nakamoto Emails Discovered; Crypto Market Consolidating

The cryptocurrency sector has started its consolidation period after a bloodbath it experienced yesterday. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap is currently trading for $17,164, representing a decrease of 3.07 % on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum is gaining 0.01% on the day, while XRP managed to gain 2.47%.

 Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

SushiSwap gained 31.44% in the past 24 hours, making it the most prominent daily gainer in the top100. It is closely followed by Aave’s gain of 15.05% and Nano’s 14.68% gain. On the other hand, Crypto.com Coin lost 10.20%, making it the most prominent daily loser. NEM lost 9.92% while OMG Network lost 9.43%, making them the 2nd and 3rd most prominent daily losers.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s market dominance has stayed at the same place as yesterday, with its value currently staying at 62.2%. This value represents a 0% difference when compared to the value it had yesterday.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The crypto sector capitalization has decreased significantly over the course of the day. Its current value is $511.86 billion, representing a $48.67 billion decrease compared to our previous report.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

_______________________________________________________________________

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

The largest cryptocurrency by market cap has triggered a rally towards the downside after creating a double top, which brought its price as low as $16,215. While some analysts say that the downturn is not over yet, Bitcoin has recovered slightly and is now consolidating just above the $17,000 mark.

While shorting Bitcoin could be a good profit-making opportunity if the downtrend continues, trading against the long-term trend is very risky. However, thinking about hedging against any downturns should be considered.

BTC/USD 1-hour Chart

Bitcoin’s daily and weekly technicals are tilted towards the buy-side and show no signs of neutrality. On the other hand, its monthly technicals show some signs of neutrality, while its 4-hour technicals are completely bearish.

BTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (1-hour Chart):
  • Price is far below its 50-period EMA and at its 21-period EMA
  • Price is at its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (44.33)
  • Volume is average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $17,450                                 1: $17,000

2: $17,850                                 2: $16,800

3: $18500                                   3: $16,350

Ethereum

Ethereum has experienced the same chain of events Bitcoin did in the past day or so. The downtrend ended up bringing Ethereum’s price back to as low as $480 before recovering. However, Ethereum’s ascending channel (yellow dotted) top line has stayed strong and triggered a mini-rally, which then brought the price above the red ascending line as well. Ethereum is now consolidating at around $515.

Ethereum’s current fundamental outlook is very bullish, but (as we said in our previous articles) any sharp move to the downside triggered by Bitcoin will affect Ethereum in a major way as well. This makes trading up hard, as one needs to constantly check Bitcoin’s price as well.

ETH/USD 1-hour Chart

Ethereum’s daily, weekly, and monthly technicals are completely bullish and show no or just slight neutrality signs. On the other hand, its sentiment seen in the 4-hour time-frame’s is completely bearish.

ETH/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical Factors (4-hour Chart):
  • The price is far below its 50-period and at its 21-period EMA
  • Price is at its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (44.53)
  • Volume is average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $600                                     1: $510

2: $630                                     2: $500 

3: $735                                      3: $490

Ripple

The fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap has posted lower highs three times in a row, with its lows testing the $0.625 support level each time the price went down. However, the third time XRP went towards this level, Bitcoin’s push towards the downside triggered XRP bears, which took over the market. The downturn ended at the $0.475 level, which held up quite nicely. XRP is now trading in the middle of a range, bound by $0.475 to the downside and $0.625 to the upside.

Trading XRP may not be optimal at the moment as trading Bitcoin is both potentially more profitable and a bit more straightforward.

XRP/USD 1-hour Chart

XRP’s technicals on all time-frames are bullish, with its daily time-frame being the only one not showing any signs of neutrality. The other time-frames show either slight neutrality or even slight bearishness.

XRP/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • The price is slightly below its 50-period EMA and at its 21-period EMA
  • Price is slightly above its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (48.78)
  • Volume is slightly above average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $0.625                                   1: $0.475

2: $0.79                                     2: $0.443

3: $0.963                                  3: $0.4

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, November 27 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – French Events in Focus! 

The economic calendar is a bit muted on the last trading day of the week as investors seem to enjoy the Thanksgiving holiday. However, France is due to report few low impact economic events such as French Consumer Spending with a positive forecast of 3.6% vs. -5.1%, Prelim CPI m/m with a neutral forecast of 0.0%, and Prelim GDP with a neutral growth rate forecast of 18.2% vs. 18.2%. These events are likely to have a muted impact on the market today. 

 

Economic Events to Watch Today  

  


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.19123 after placing a high of 1.19406 and a low of 1.18850. EUR/USD pair hit a fresh 2-months high on Thursday in the early trading session and started to decline and ended up posting losses for the day after the German Consumer Confidence contracted.

At 12:00GMT, the German GfK Consumer Climate in November missed the market’s expectations and dropped to -6.7 against the expected -4.9 and weighed on Euro. At 14:00 GMT, the M3 Money Supply for the year from Eurozone remained flat at 10.5%. Private Loans for the year also came in line with the expectations of 3.1%.

The Eurozone’s largest economy, Germany, appeared to struggle to shake off the coronavirus crisis as consumers’ confidence declined. The investors became cautious about it. That weighed on the single currency Euro and added in the losses of EUR/USD pair.

Furthermore, the European Central bank (ECB) published its November policy meeting minutes in which the policymakers believe that there was the possibility that pandemic might have long-lasting effects. They were cautious that pandemics might take a toll on the demand side, supply sides and reduce the economy’s growth potential.

Minutes revealed that Inflation would remain negative for longer while employment could contract further. Policymakers believed that flexibility from PEPP was essential to its continued success, and they wanted to wait for a further fiscal response before reacting instead. They were of the review that more bond-buying may not have the same impact now. There were no surprises in the minutes as Central Bank has begun to pave the way towards additional easing next December.

The single currency Euro came under pressure after releasing these minutes from the European Central Bank and weighed on EUR/USD pair on Thursday. The U.S. markets were closed due to the Thanksgiving Holiday, and as Friday is not an official holiday, thin trading is expected to extend into the weekend.

Moreover, the currency pair also followed yesterday’s release of the flash US GDP data for the third quarter that remained low at 33.1% in annualized terms and raised concerns over the world’s largest economy. The coronavirus vaccine and the U.S. stimulus talks are considered as the prevailing risks to the Federal Reserve’s outlook going ahead.

The demand for safe-haven greenback continued to slip with the global economy’s improving outlook after the release of vaccines for a deadly virus. The weak U.S. dollar kept the losses in EUR/USD pair limited on Thursday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.1885      1.1934

1.1859      1.1957

1.1836      1.1983

Pivot point: 1.1908

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

On Friday, the direct currency pair EUR/USD is trading with a bullish bias at the 1.1912 level, holding above an immediate resistance becomes a support level of the 1.1905 level. On the higher side, the EUR/USD pair may find resistance at 1.1979, and a bullish breakout of 1.199 level can extend the upward trend until 1.1942. On the 2 hour timeframe, the EUR/USD pair has violated the symmetric triangle pattern that was extending resistance at the 1.19052 level, and now this level is working as a support. Let’s consider taking a buying trade over the 1.1905 level, and above this, the next target stays at 1.1997.


GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.33550 after a high of 1.33974 and a low of 1.33218. GBP/USD pair struggled to surpass the 1.3400 level and was unable to do so during the early European session, and after that, sellers came in and reversed the pair’s movement to as low as 1.3320 level.

The GBP/USD pair was amongst the worst performers on Thursday out of the G10 currencies, with losses of around 40 pips on the day. After posting gains for four consecutive days, the GBP/USD pair declined on Thursday. Much of the GBP/USD pair’s bullish rally was due to the U.S. dollar’s weakness following the U.S. President-elect Joe Biden’s victory at the start of the month was also escalated by the combination of vaccine optimism and the increasingly dovish tone of the FOMC.

Federal Reserve is expected to squeeze their asset purchase program in December to offer the economy more stimulus because of the rising number of coronavirus cases across the States that has forced the local governments to impose a second lockdown, as the fiscal stimulus from Congress remains indefinable.

Meanwhile, British Pound has also performed significantly better during this month as the hopes surrounding the Brexit deal were higher after the French compromise over the fisheries issue. An agreement over one sticking point also revealed progress made in the Brexit agreement and supported the Sterling that added gains in GBP/USD pair. Furthermore, the vaccine development from Pfizer & BioNtech, Moderna, and AstraZeneca also gave strength to the GBP/USD pair after adding demand for the market’s risk sentiment.

However, on Thursday, the tone behind GBP/USD was changed somewhat after the hopes for a Brexit deal started to fade away. Many reports suggested that the remaining key sticking issues related to Ireland and level playing field were proving to be very hard to reach an agreement. During Thursday’s European session, the Irish Foreign Minister said that Brexit’s outstanding issues were proving to be complicated. E.U. sources also reported that talks between the E.U. and the U.K. were not going well. Simultaneously, the French Foreign Minister put public pressure on the U.K. to adopt a more realistic negotiating stance on Wednesday that faded the optimistic tone around the market and weighed on GBP/USD pair.

During the Thanksgiving Holiday in the U.S. and, in the absence of any macroeconomic data from the U.K., the GBP/USD pair continued following the latest headlines and dropped on Thursday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3318      1.3394

1.3282      1.3434

1.3242      1.3470

Pivot point: 1.3358

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD traded in line with our previous forecast to hit the support level of 1.333, which is extended by an upward channel. On the higher side, Cable may find resistance at 1.3400 level that’s extended by the double top pattern on the two-hour timeframe. Simultaneously, the bullish crossover of the 1.3400 level is likely to open additional room for buying until the 1.3446 level. On the 4 hour timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has formed a bullish channel that supports the pair at the 1.333 area, and violation of this level on the lower side can drive a sharp selling trend until the 1.3270 mark. The RSI and MACD are suggesting a selling trend in sterling. However, I will prefer to open a buying trade over the 1.3330 area and selling trade below the same level today. 


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 104.233 after placing a high of 104.479 and a low of 104.214. On Thursday, the U.S. dollar was down in early trading session subdued by weak U.S. economic data. The optimism surrounding the coronavirus vaccines prompted investors to seek out riskier assets instead of safe-haven. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) was down on Thursday against the basket of six major currencies by 0.3% at 91.97 level, the lowest level in more than two months as the volume was limited due to the holiday in the U.S. for Thanksgiving.

In late Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its last monetary policy meeting, and they showed that Fed members debated on a range of options on bond purchases to support the recovery, including pivoting to purchases of longer-term securities that could put more pressure on the dollar by keeping longer-term yield unattractively low. These comments from the Fed weighed on the U.S. dollar and added pressure on the USD/JPY pair on Thursday.

Meanwhile, the number of global coronavirus cases reached above 60 million on Thursday, out of which 12.7 million were from the U.S., according to Johns Hopkins University. Many states in the U.S. started to impose restrictive measures to curb the increasing numbers of coronavirus cases that led to more job losses, weighed on the U.S. dollar, and kept the USD/JPY pair under pressure.

Positive data from 3 vaccine candidates and their efficacies, along with a smoother transition to Joe Biden administration in the U.S., added pressure on the greenback and forced investors to move towards riskier currencies. Reports also suggested that the Fed’s monetary easing was on its way that continued weighing on the greenback and added pressure on the USD/JPY pair. Apart from this, a mixed performance in the European equity markets provided a modest lift to the safe-haven Japanese yen that ultimately contributed to the USD/JPY pair’s fall on Thursday.

Due to the absence of any macroeconomic data on the day and the thin liquidity conditions due to the Thanksgiving Holiday, the pair USD/JPY continued following the last day’s economic data of Unemployment claims that showed a negative labor market report and added pressure on the pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

104.27      104.63

104.09      104.79

103.92      104.98

Pivot point: 104.44

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY pair’s recent price action has violated the choppy trading range of 104.700 – 104.056. On the lower side, the USD/JPY pair can drop further until the next support level of 103.667 level, especially after the breakout of the 104.150 support level. On the higher side, a bullish breakout of 104.700 resistance can extend the buying trend until the next resistance area of 104.700 and 105.063 level. On the lower side, the support continues to hold around the 103.667 level. The MACD suggests selling bias in the USD/JPY pair; thus, we should consider selling trade below 104.150 and buying above the same. Good luck! 

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Nov 26 – Bitcoin’s “Flash Crash” Pulls Price Below $18,000; Blood on the Crypto Streets

The cryptocurrency sector has ended the day in the red as Bitcoin failed to stay above $19,000 and even falling below $18,000 as bears took control of the market. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap is currently trading for $17,000, representing a decrease of 10.67%% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum is losing 15.34% on the day, while XRP lost 16.88%.

 Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

Zilliqa 23.75% in the past 24 hours, making it the most prominent daily gainer in the top100. It is closely followed by Horizen’s gain of 18.71% and Elrond’s 11.54% gain. On the other hand, Verge lost 24.86%, making it the most prominent daily loser. Kusama lost 15.78% while Reserve Rights lost 13.81%, making them the 2nd and 3rd most prominent daily losers.

 

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s market dominance has increased over the day, with its value currently staying at 62.2%. This value represents a 0.6% difference to the upside compared to the value it had yesterday.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The crypto sector capitalization has decreased over the course of the day. Its current value is $560.17 billion, representing an $11.36 billion decrease compared to our previous report.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

_______________________________________________________________________

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

The largest cryptocurrency by market cap has created a double top, which triggered a pullback from the recent highs. Not only has the price retraced to the sub-$19,000 level, but it has also broken the $18,500 support level. The price will most likely end up below the $17,850 level, as the market is calling for a pullback for quite some time. However, if the market recovers, we can expect the price to end up between $17,850 and $18,500.

While shorting Bitcoin might be a good profit-making opportunity at the moment, trading against the long-term trend is extremely risky. However, thinking about hedging versus any downturns might be a good option at the moment.

BTC/USD 1-hour Chart

Bitcoin’s 4-hour, daily, and weekly technicals are heavily tilted towards the buy-side and show no signs of neutrality or bearishness. On the other hand, its monthly technicals are showing some signs of neutrality.

BTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (1-hour Chart):
  • Price is far below its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
  • Price slightly below its lower Bollinger band
  • RSI is extremely oversold (23.98)
  • Volume is average (one candle spike)
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $18500                                  1: $17,850

2: $19000                                  2: $17,450

3: $19500                                   3: $17,000

Ethereum

While Ethereum did follow Bitcoin to the downside, both in price direction and severity of the move, the situation doesn’t look that bad. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap has started its pullback after failing to stay above $600, culminating in a full-blown dump from $570 to $505. However, the ascending (red) line held up, and ETH reclaimed previous levels and is currently consolidating around $530.

Ethereum’s current outlook is very bullish, but any sharp move to the downside coming from Bitcoin will affect it in a major way. Traders should pay close attention to Bitcoin’s moves if they want to trade Ether.

ETH/USD 1-hour Chart

Ethereum’s technicals are a bit confusing, as its daily and monthly overviews are completely bullish, while its weekly overview shows slight signs of neutrality. Its 4-hour technicals, however, are pointing towards the sell-side.

ETH/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical Factors (4-hour Chart):
  • The price is below both its 50-period and its 21-period EMA
  • Price is below its bottom Bollinger band
  • RSI is extremely oversold (19.47)
  • Volume is above average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $600                                     1: $510

2: $630                                     2: $500 

3: $735                                      3: $490

Ripple

The fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap has performed similarly to the aforementioned two cryptocurrencies. XRP has posted lower highs three times in a row while testing the $0.625 support level each time. However, the last time XRP went towards this level, bears took over and pushed the price further down. XRP bears have seemingly reached exhaustion, and the cryptocurrency is now consolidating around the $0.575 level.

Trading XRP is not advised as trading Bitcoin is (at the moment) both potentially more profitable and more straightforward.

XRP/USD 1-hour Chart

XRP’s technicals on all time-frames are tilted towards the buy-side, with its daily overview being the most bullish time-frame. Its other time-frames show signs of neutrality or even slight bearishness.

XRP/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • The price is far below both its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
  • Price is slightly below its bottom Bollinger band
  • RSI is close to being oversold (31.85)
  • Volume is above average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $0.625                                   1: $0.475

2: $0.79                                     2: $0.443

3: $0.963                                  3: $0.4

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, November 26 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Thanksgiving Day! 

The economic calendar is a bit muted amid the Thanksgiving holiday. Most Forex brokers remain open for every holiday except Christmas and New Year’s Day. Stock markets and banks have slightly different holiday schedules. In addition to this, the eyes will remain on ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts during the European session. It’s a detailed record of the ECB Governing Board’s most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates. 

Economic Events to Watch Today  

  


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair closed at 1.19136 after placing a high of 1.18959 and a low of 1.18334. EUR/USD pair extended its upward momentum on Wednesday amid the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness and the rising optimism around the market. 

The risk sentiment was triggered by the latest vaccine development that suggested a quick economic recovery and pushed riskier assets like EUR/USD pair on the higher levels. The currency pair EUR/USD rose and placed fresh highs on Wednesday after reaching its highest level since mid-August.

The U.S. dollar was weak on Wednesday after the release of mixed and depressing data from the U.S. The Unemployment claims rose unexpectedly and weighed on the U.S. dollar, and supported the upward momentum in EUR/USD pair.

On the data front, there was no data from the Europe side on Wednesday, while from the U.S., at 18:30 GMT, the Prelim Gross Domestic Product for the third quarter came in line with the anticipations of 33.1%. The Unemployment Claims from last week rose to 778K against the projected 732K and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The Core Durable Goods Orders for October rose to 1.3% against the estimated 0.5% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Durable Goods Orders also rose to 1.3% from the projected 1.0% and helped the U.S. dollar. The Goods Trade Balance from the U.S. for October came in as forecasted -80.3B. The Prelim Wholesale Inventories for October rose to 0.9% against the estimated 0.4% and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added strength to EUR/USD pair.

At 18:36 GMT, the Prelim GDP Price Index for the third quarter also remained as expected at 3.6%. At 20:00 GMT, the Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment for November also came in line with the projections of 76.9. The Core PCE Price Index for October remained flat with the predictions of 0.0%. The New Home Sales for October surged to 999K against the anticipated 972K and supported the U.S. dollar. The Personal Income declined to -0.7% from the projected 0.0% and weighed on the U.S. dollar added in the gains of EUR/USD pair. The Personal Spending raised to 0.5% from the forecasted 0.4% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Revised UoM Inflation Expectations also came in line as expected at 2.8%.

On Wednesday, the European Central Bank released its review on the economy’s financial stability. The central bank warned that European banks would not see profits return to the pre-pandemic level before 2022. According to ECB, the Eurozone leaders have struggled to make sizeable profits over the last decade after the 2008 global financial crisis with more robust regulatory scrutiny and low-interest rates. While the recent coronavirus crisis has worsened bottom lines further, and that will continue to affect the financial sector in the coming months.

In simple words, the banks’ profitability will remain weak, which could hurt their ability to lend money to businesses and individuals that would also reflect the economy’s weak health. These comments from ECB failed to break the upward momentum of the EUR/USD pair on Wednesday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.1888     1.1936

1.1861     1.1957

1.1841     1.1984

Pivot point: 1.1909

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is trading with a bullish bias at the 1.1936 level, holding below an immediate resistance level of 1.1979. On the higher side, the EUR/USD pair may find resistance at 1.1979, and a bullish breakout of 1.199 level can extend the upward trend until 1.1942. On the 2 hour timeframe, the EUR/USD pair has violated the symmetric triangle pattern that was extending resistance at the 1.19052 level, and now this level is working as a support. Let’s consider taking a buying trade over the 1.1905 level, and above this, the next target stays at 1.1997.


GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair closed at 1.33864 after a high of 1.33935 and a low of 1.33037. GBP/USD pair extended its gains for the 4th consecutive session on Wednesday amid the U.S. dollar weakness and the rising global market confidence due to vaccine progress. Meanwhile, the currency pair GBP/USD also remained under pressure on Wednesday after the Brexit uncertainty returned to the market.

The GBP/USD pair has been trading with an upside bias since the start of this week due to rising optimism in the market regarding the latest vaccine developments. Pfizer and BioNtech first reported its vaccine’s efficacy rate, followed by Moderna and AstraZeneca within two weeks. The back to back vaccine progress and the fact that Pfizer and BioNtech have already filed for emergency use authorization of their vaccine and others being in line for it has further supported the market’s risk sentiment.

The risk perceived GBP/USD pair gained traction and saw a jump in demand on expectations that the U.K. and the E.U. were getting closer to reaching a deal on Brexit. However, on Wednesday, the lack of recent progress raised uncertainty in the market and weighed on British Pound.

The French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian recently commented that British proposals in the latest negotiations were insufficient. He also accused the U.K. of slowing talks over secondary subjects and playing with the calendar. He urged that securing a deal over fisheries will not be the adjustment variable in the talks.

Meanwhile, a BBC reporter Katya Adler also tweeted that E.U. sources have said that there were doubts about the E.U. Brexit negotiator Michelle Barnier going to London to negotiate once he leaves quarantine on Friday and that the talks were not going well. These updates were also confirmed by the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, who said on Wednesday morning that she could not say if there will be a deal and the next few days would be decisive.

All this Brexit news dented the expectations that the two sides will eventually reach a deal on key sticking points. However, market participants decided not to react to such news for Wednesday and continued following the market’s optimism.

On the data front, at 18:30 GMT, the Prelim Gross Domestic Product for the third quarter remained flat with the expectations of 33.1%. The Unemployment Claims from last week surged to 778K against the anticipated 732K and weighed on the U.S. dollar. 

The Core Durable Goods Orders for October raised to 1.3% against the forecasted 0.5% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Durable Goods Orders increased to 1.3% from the estimated 1.0% and helped the U.S. dollar. The Goods Trade Balance from the U.S. for October remained flat at -80.3B. The Prelim Wholesale Inventories for October raised to 0.9% against the projected 0.4% and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added strength to GBP/USD pair.

At 18:36 GMT, the Prelim GDP Price Index for the third quarter also came in line with the projections of 3.6%. At 20:00 GMT, the Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment for November also remained flat at 76.9. The Core PCE Price Index for October stayed the same at 0.0%. The New Home Sales for October raised to 999K against the estimated 972K and supported the U.S. dollar. The Personal Income fell to -0.7% from the forecasted 0.0% and weighed on the U.S. dollar added in the GBP/USD pair’s gains. The Personal Spending rose to 0.5% from the projected 0.4% and supported the U.S. dollar. Revised UoM Inflation Expectations also remained flat at 2.8%.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3325     1.3416

1.3269     1.3451

1.3235     1.3507

Pivot Point: 1.3360

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading bullish around 1.3396 level, facing resistance at 1.3400 level. The resistance level is extended by the double top pattern at 1.3400 level, and a bullish crossover of 1.3400 level is likely to open further room for buying until 1.3446 level. On the 4 hour timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has formed a bullish channel that supports the pair at the 1.333 area. The RSI and MACD are suggesting a buying trend in sterling. However, I will prefer to open a buying trade over the 1.3396 area today. 


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair closed at 104.456 after a high of 104.596 and a low of 104.253. The USD/JPY pair stayed relatively low, around 104.5 level for the majority of the day, and remained more down during the American trading hours due to mixed macroeconomic data releases from the U.S.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) edged lower in the late American session, remained at the 91.97 level, and kept the U.S. dollar depressed. On the data front, at 18:30 GMT, the Prelim Gross Domestic Product for the third quarter remained flat at 33.1%. The Unemployment Claims from last week rose to 778K against the expected 732K and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The Core Durable Goods Orders for October rose to 1.3% against the expected 0.5% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Durable Goods Orders surged to 1.3% from the anticipated 1.0% and helped the U.S. dollar. 

The Goods Trade Balance from the U.S. for October remained flat with the expectations of -80.3B. The Prelim Wholesale Inventories for October rose to 0.9% against the estimated 0.4% and weighed on the U.S. dollar.

At 18:36 GMT, the Prelim GDP Price Index for the third quarter remained flat at 3.6%. At 20:00 GMT, the Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment for November stayed at 76.9. The Core PCE Price Index for October came in line with the expectations of 0.0%. The New Home Sales for October surged to 999K against the projected 972K and supported the U.S. dollar. The Personal Income dropped to -0.7% from the expected 0.0% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The Personal Spending surged to 0.5% from the forecasted 0.4% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Revised UoM Inflation Expectations also came in line with the anticipations of 2.8%.

The rising unemployment claims and declined personal income weighed on the local currency while the durable goods orders and new home sales, along with the personal spending, supported the U.S. dollar on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, from the Japanese side, the year’s SPPI declined to -0.6% from the forecasted -0.5% and weighed on the Japanese Yen. At 09:59 GMT, the BoJ Core CPI for the year raised to 0.0% from the forecasted -0.1% and supported the Japanese Yen that added weight on the USD/JPY pair on Wednesday.

The currency pair USD/JPY remained bullish throughout the day despite the U.S.’s mixed economic data on the back of rising optimism in the market. The global market sentiment remained confident due to the rising number of vaccine candidates reporting progress. The race to file for emergency use authorization of vaccine started with Pfizer and BioNtech has extended to AstraZeneca and Moderna that has helped raised hopes for a pre-pandemic economic environment and supported the risk sentiment.

The rising risk sentiment added weight on the safe-Haven Japanese Yen and supported the USD/JPY pair’s upward momentum on Wednesday. Another factor involved in the USD/JPY pair’s upward movement was the beginning of the transition of the presidency of President-elect Joe Biden.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

104.27     104.63

104.09     104.79

103.92     104.98

Pivot point: 104.44

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY continues to trade in a fresh choppy range of 104.700 – 104.056 level. On the higher side, a bullish breakout of 104.700 resistance can extend the buying trend until the next resistance area of 104.700 and 105.063 level. On the lower side, the support continues to hold around 104.056 and 103.667 level. The MACD suggests an overbought situation of the USD/JPY pair; thus, we should look for selling trade below 104.598 and buying above the same. Good luck! 

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Nov 25 – Bitcoin Above $19,000: What’s Next?

The cryptocurrency sector has spent the day pushing towards the upside as Bitcoin rallied and reached past $19,000. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap is currently trading for $19,093, representing an increase of 4.37% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum lost 0.55% on the day, while XRP gained 14.94%.

 Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

Verge 63.06% in the past 24 hours, making it the most prominent daily gainer in the top100. It is closely followed by Stellar’s gain of 59.30% and Status’s 31.14% gain. On the other hand, Bitcoin Gold lost 16.21%, making it the most prominent daily loser. SushiSwap lost 12.05% while Balancer lost 7.89%, making them the 2nd and 3rd most prominent daily losers.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s market dominance has increased over the course of the day, with its value is currently staying at 61.06%. This value represents a 1% difference to the upside compared to the value it had yesterday.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The crypto sector capitalization has increased slightly over the course of the day. Its current value is $571.53 billion, representing an $8.86 billion increase compared to our previous report.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

_______________________________________________________________________

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

The largest cryptocurrency by market cap has had an exciting day as its price reached past the $18,500 mark and pushed towards its all-time highs. Bitcoin managed to get to $19,450 before the momentum started dying off. It is currently consolidating just at the $19,000 mark, fighting to stay above it. This move was enabled by a booming altcoin situation, which led to a money pour-over into Bitcoin.

Any trading to the downside is completely irresponsible now due to how Bitcoin is moving. On the other hand, its movement towards the upside is very hectic, and traders should pay attention to when they enter and exit trades. If Bitcoin establishes its presence above the $19,000 mark with confidence, another push that might break the $20,000 all-time high level is entirely possible.

BTC/USD 2-hour Chart

Bitcoin’s technicals are tilted to the bull-side slightly, with only the weekly time-frame being completely bullish. In contrast, its other time-frames contain a hint of neutrality or even bearishness.

BTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Price is above its 50-period EMA and at its 21-period EMA
  • Price slightly above its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (55.57)
  • Volume is average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $19000                                  1: $18500

2: $19500                                  2: $17,850

3: $19,666                                  3: $17,450

Ethereum

Ethereum’s parabolic move, which brought its price from $480 to $625, has seemingly ended, and Ethereum has entered a consolidation/retracement phase. While it was uncertain whether the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap will stay above $600, the fight for the level has ended, and ETH moved back below it.

Ethereum has a very strong zone of resistance above $600 and all the way up to $632. On the other hand, it has a decently strong support zone at $575-$580. We can expect Ethereum to move in that range in the short-term unless a new breakout occurs.


ETH/USD 2-hour Chart

Ethereum’s technicals are tilted to the bull-side slightly, with only the monthly time-frame being completely bullish. In contrast, its other time-frames contain slight neutrality or even bearishness.

ETH/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical Factors (4-hour Chart):
  • The price is above its 50-period and slightly below its 21-period EMA
  • Price is near its bottom Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (50.82)
  • Volume is above average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $600                                     1: $510

2: $630                                     2: $500 

3: $735                                      3: $490

Ripple

The fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap’s controversial parabolic rise has died down and actually kept most of its gains. XRP has moved back from its recent highs of $0.78 (and even $0.9 on some exchanges) to a steadier $0.68, which is its current price. We can also see that XRP made a double top at the $0.735 mark, as well as a double bottom at the $0.625 support level.

Trading XRP is more manageable now as the volatility has died down, and the zones of support/resistance have been established. However, trading crypto overall is extremely risky at the moment, and only moves to the upside (and possibly sideways movement) should be traded.

XRP/USD 2-hour Chart

XRP’s 4-hour and daily overviews are completely bullish and show no signs of neutrality whatsoever, while its weekly and monthly overviews show slight neutrality or even a hint of bearishness.

XRP/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • The price is far above its 50-period EMA and slightly above its 21-period EMA
  • Price is slightly above its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (59.98)
  • Volume is above average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $0.79                                     1: $0.625 

2: $0.963                                   2: $0.475

3: $1.01                                    3: $0.443

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, November 25 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Unemployment Claims Eyed! 

The economic calendar is filled with medium impact economic events such as Unemployment Claims, UoM Consumer Sentiment, and Prelim GDP q/q from the United States on the news front. The market may show some price action during the U.S. session on the release of U.S. Jobless Claims.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.18897 after placing a high of 1.18959 and a low of 1.18334. After placing losses for two consecutive days, the EUR/USD pair rose and started to post gains on Tuesday amid the rising optimism and risk sentiment surrounding the market.

The safe-haven appeal suffered after AstraZeneca’s latest news that its vaccine could reach a 90% efficacy rate on the second dosage from 70% in the first one. However, the EUR/USD pair traders remained confused on Tuesday and moved the currency pair between gains and losses throughout the day and ended the day with gains as optimism regarding vaccine overshadowed the U.S. dollar’s strength. The U.S. dollar was strong in the market ahead of Wall Street’s opening; however, it fell under selling pressure after the U.S. Consumer Confidence fell in November. 

On the data front, at 12:00 GMT, the German Final GDP for the third quarter raised to 8.5% against the forecasted 8.2% and supported the single currency Euro that added further gains in EUR/USD pair. AT 14:00 GMT, the German IFO Business Climate for November also raised to 90.7 against the expected 90.3 and supported EUR/USD pair. At 19:00 GMT, the Housing Price Index for September elevated to 1.7% against the projected 0.8% and supported the U.S. dollar from the U.S. side. 

The S&P/CS Composite -20 HPI for the year also surged to 6.6% against the expected 5.3% and supported the U.S. dollar that ultimately capped further gains in EUR/USD pair. At 19:59 GMT, the Richmond Manufacturing Index dropped to 15 points from the projected 20 and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added gains in EUR/USD pair. The most awaited C.B. Consumer Confidence from the U.S. was released at 20:00 GMT also fell to 96.1 against the anticipated 97.7 and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added further gains in EUR/USD pair on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the reports that the U.S. President Trump has agreed with the transition process with Joe Biden and that the White House has given the go-ahead to Biden raised the risk sentiment and added further gains EUR/USD pair. Furthermore, the vaccine hopes also kept the market sentiment improved with the news that the new vaccine developed by AstraZeneca, a British Pharmaceutical, can provide 90% protection against the coronavirus and be cheaper against the previous Pfizer and Moderna due to its comfortable storage facility. These reports raised hopes that the global economy will start recovering now, and the riskier asset EUR/USD pair gained traction and started posting gains.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.1851     1.1911

1.1814     1.1934

1.1791     1.1972

Pivot point: 1.1874

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is trading with a bullish bias at the 1.1895 level, holding below an immediate resistance level of 1.1912. On the higher side, the EUR/USD pair may find resistance at 1.1912, and a bullish breakout of 1.1912 level can extend the upward trend until 1.1942. On the 2 hour timeframe, the EUR/USD pair was supported by an upward trendline, which got violated, and now the same trendline is supporting EUR/USD pair at 1.1862. Let’s look for a selling trade below the 1.1866 level today. 


GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.33615 after a high of 1.33802 and a low of 1.32929. The currency pair GBP/USD continued its bullish movement on Tuesday for the 3rd consecutive day. The GBP/USD pair continued getting support from the British Pound’s strength after the rising Brexit optimism in the market. The hopes that a Brexit deal will be reached soon between the U.K. and the E.U. kept underpinning the Sterling and forced GBP/USD pair to remain on the market’s positive side.

Although nothing has been confirmed about the Brexit deal, the talks between both nations have been extended into this week. On Tuesday, a member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee said Tuesday that vaccine news had provided some light at the end of the tunnel.

He also said that he saw a long-term scarring effect from the coronavirus outbreak. He added that it was too early to say that vaccine news will significantly improve the Bank’s economic outlook for 2021. He said that even if the economy came back because of the vaccine, it would have to face the economy-Brexit’s further long-term problem.

On the data front, at 16:00 GMT, the CBI Realized Sales for November came in as -25 against the forecasted -34 and supported British Pound and added in the gains of the GBP/USD pair. At 19:00 GMT, the Housing Price Index for September rose to 1.7% against the expected 0.8% and supported the U.S. dollar from the U.S. side. The S&P/CS Composite -20 HPI for the year also raised to 6.6% against the estimated 5.3% and helped the U.S. dollar that ultimately capped further gains in GBP/USD pair. At 19:59 GMT, the Richmond Manufacturing Index fell to 15 points from the anticipated 20 and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added gains in GBP/USD pair. The most awaited C.B. Consumer Confidence from the U.S. was released at 20:00 GMT, also fell to 96.1 against the projected 97.7 and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added further gains in GBP/USD pair on Tuesday.

Furthermore, the GBP/USD pair was also supported by the latest optimism in the market that had kept the risk-on market sentiment improved. The risk perceived British Pound was supported by the risk sentiment raised by the AstraZeneca vaccine news. Its vaccine was proven to be 90% effective in the second dosage. It was said to be cheaper as it can be stored in an ordinary refrigerator compared to Pfizer, and Moderna’s vaccines that provide 95% protection against the virus were not so easy to store. This optimism also kept the market’s risk sentiment on the upper side and continued supporting the GBP/USD pair on Tuesday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3289     1.3312

1.3274     1.3320

1.3266     1.3336

Pivot point: 1.3297

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD traded bearishly at 1.3340, having bounced off over the support area of the 1.3292 level. On the higher side, the pair may go after the resistance level of 1.3394. Over there’s an upward trendline that is supporting Sterling on the 2-hour timeframe. The Cable below the 1.3292 level may find support at the 1.3240 level while the RSI and MACD support buying. Thus we should consider taking buying trade over the 1.3292 level to target 1.3394. 


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 104.439 after placing a high of 104.759 and a low of 104.144. The pair USD/JPY seesawed on Tuesday as it moved in an upward direction in early trading hours and reached near 104.76 level while in the late trading session, the USD/JPY pair started to lose its earlier gains and continued its bearish bias. The selling bias in the currency pair USD/JPY raised on Tuesday after posting massive gains on Monday amid the mixed market sentiment. The safe-haven Japanese Yen was under pressure on Tuesday after the positive market mood circulated due to progress in AstraZeneca’s coronavirus vaccine.

The equity market rallied after the latest optimism regarding the 90% adequate protection against the coronavirus with a comfortable storage facility compared to Pfizer’s and Moderna vaccine’s 95% protection against the virus with a difficult storage facility. The market participants continued following the optimism and shifted towards riskier assets against the safer ones.

The equity market was also boosted on Tuesday, with Dow Jones moving up at 30,000 points and the three main indexes in Wall Street rising by 1.5% each. The risk rally in Wall Street added pressure on the safe-haven Japanese Yen and supported the USD/JPY pair’s upward momentum on Tuesday. The USD/JPY pair could not remain on the upper side for long and started to lose its earlier gains after releasing the U.S. Macroeconomic data. At 19:00 GMT, the Housing Price Index for September from the U.S. rose to 1.7% against the anticipated 0.8% and supported the U.S. dollar. The S&P/CS Composite -20 HPI for the year also raised to 6.6% against the estimated 5.3% and helped the U.S. dollar. At 19:59 GMT, the Richmond Manufacturing Index was dropped to 15 points from the forecasted 20 and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added pressure on the USD/JPY pair. The most awaited C.B. Consumer Confidence from the U.S. was also released at 20:00 GMT that fell to 96.1 against the estimated 97.7 and weighed on the U.S. dollar that ultimately added in the losses of the USD/JPY pair on Tuesday.

The decline in Consumer Confidence in November weighed on the local currency U.S. dollar as the rising number of coronavirus cases in the U.S. was raising questions over the economic recovery in the absence of further stimulus aid. The talks were set to resume between Republicans and Democrats to discuss the possibility of delivering an additional aid package in December.

Furthermore, the latest news from the White House that the U.S. President-elect Joe Biden was formally given the go-ahead by the federal agency to begin his transition to the presidency also capped further losses in the USD/JPY pair on Tuesday. The U.S. General Services Administration (GSA), an independent agency, determined that Biden was the outward winner of the election and informed Biden that his transition until January 20 could officially begin. The go-ahead was given by the White House to Biden to intensify the fight against the coronavirus. All these positive news kept the risk-on market sentiment supported and continued supporting the USD/JPY pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

103.76     103.87

103.69     103.93

103.64     103.99

Pivot point: 103.81

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY continues to trade in a fresh choppy range of 104.700 – 104.056 level. On the higher side, a bullish breakout of 104.700 resistance can extend the buying trend until the next resistance area of 104.700 and 105.063 level. On the lower side, the support continues to hold around 104.056 and 103.667 level. The MACD suggests an overbought situation of the USD/JPY pair; thus, we should look for selling trade below 104.598 and buying above the same. Good luck! 

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Nov 24 – XRP’s Push to $0.9 Manipulated? Ether Breaks $600 on Amazing News

The cryptocurrency sector has spent been in the green overall, with Bitcoin consolidating and altcoins booming. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap is currently trading for $18,364, representing a decrease of 0.36% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum gained 4.23% on the day, while XRP gained a whopping 54.14%.

 Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

Stellar 61.98% in the past 24 hours, making it the most prominent daily gainer in the top100. It is closely followed by XRP’s gain of 52.19% and Verge’s 37.77% gain. On the other hand, SushiSwap lost 11.14%, making it the most prominent daily loser. Quant lost 9.44% while Nexo lost 8.27%, making them the 2nd and 3rd most prominent daily losers.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s market dominance has reduced drastically over the course of the day, with its value is currently staying at 60.06%. This value represents a 2.6% difference to the downside compared to the value it had yesterday.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The crypto sector capitalization has increased significantly over the course of the day. Its current value is $562.75 billion, representing a $21.04billion increase compared to our previous report.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

_______________________________________________________________________

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

The largest cryptocurrency by market cap has stayed pretty stable today as it couldn’t break the $18,500 mark. The price has been hovering right under the level for the whole day, and even made a couple of attempts to break it but to no avail. On the other hand, this small zone of resistance and support wasn’t broken to the downside either, as a break below $18,270 could spell a retracement.

This is a prime example of uncertainty due to Bitcoin’s current level (some are taking profits while some are investing). However, trading pullbacks in a bull trend is extremely risky and should be avoided.

BTC/USD 4-hour Chart

Bitcoin’s technicals are divided, with its daily and monthly overviews showing a slight hint of bearishness alongside the bullishness that overwhelms it. In contrast, the 4-hour and weekly overviews are completely bullish.

BTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Price is above its 50-period EMA and at its 21-period EMA
  • Price is at its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (53.88)
  • Volume is average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $18500                                  1: $17,850

2: $19000                                  2: $17,450

3: $19500                                   3: $17,130

Ethereum

With Ethereum’s 2.0 version 0 launch approaching, Ethereum has continued to increase in price. Today’s move was a continuation of the uptrend that started on Nov 0, additionally fueled by the announcement that the deposits required for Ethereum’s 2.0 version 0 to launch have passed the threshold. This news is a big sigh of relief for the ETH devs, as they were wondering if the protocol will reach its goal on time for the Dec 1 launch. This extremely bullish news has pushed Ethereum past $600, which it is now testing.

If Ethereum manages to successfully stay above $600, it will have very little resistance to the upside and basically trade only versus profit-taking sellers.

ETH/USD 1-hour Chart

Ethereum’s 4-hour and monthly time-frames are completely bullish, while its daily and weekly time-frames are slightly more tilted towards the neutral position.

ETH/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical Factors (4-hour Chart):
  • The price is far above its 50-period and slightly above its 21-period EMA
  • Price is between its middle and top Bollinger band
  • RSI is coming out of the overbought territory (59.88)
  • Volume is above average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $600                                     1: $510

2: $630                                     2: $500 

3: $735                                      3: $490

Ripple

The fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap has exploded to the upside and reached over $0.90 on the US cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase only to crash back down by roughly 30% in mere seconds. This was its highest price since May 2018. The rally was apparently driven by the Coinbase users as XRP did not see the same heights on any other exchange. Bitstamp and Binance saw a high of only $0.79.

Analysts believe that this rally is a culmination of an uptrend triggered in late Oct when an anonymous whale sent an astonishing $50 million worth of XRP at the time to Bitstamp. Ever since then, XRP/USD has been seeing a strong uptrend, up by 128.63% in the past week.

Trading XRP is simply impossible at the moment due to the amount of risk associated with this type of volatility.

XRP/USD 1-hour Chart

XRP’s 4-hour and weekly overviews are completely bullish and show no signs of neutrality, while its daily and monthly overviews show slight neutrality or even slight bearishness.

XRP/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • The price is above its 50-period EMA and at its 21-period EMA
  • Price is slightly above its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (53.65)
  • Volume is above average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $0.79                                     1: $0.625 

2: $0.963                                   2: $0.475

3: $1.01                                    3: $0.443

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, November 24 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Consumer Confidence in Focus!

On the news front, the focus will remain on the U.S. Prelim Consumer Confidence and C.B. Leading Index m/m, which are expected to report mixed outcomes and drive choppy movement in the U.S. dollar. Let’s focus on technical levels today.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 


 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair closed at 1.18402 after placing a high of 1.19058 and a low of 1.17997. The EUR/USD pair rose to its highest since November 9 and reversed its direction after that, and continued placing losses for the day. The decline in the EUR/USD pair despite the improved risk sentiment was due to the U.S. dollar’s strength. The risk-on market sentiment was supported by the latest optimism from various vaccine developments. In contrast, the strength in the U.S. dollar was derived from better-than-expected U.S. macroeconomic data on Monday.

A British pharmaceutical AstraZeneca announced that its potential vaccine was more than 90% effective in its clinical trials for protecting the coronavirus. The first dosage of its vaccine provides 70% protection, while the second dosage could increase the efficacy rate to 90%.

AstraZeneca also said that it would be cheaper than its rival Pfizer vaccine as it can be stored at refrigerator temperature while Pfizer’s vaccine requires a frozen temperature that could make its cost of distribution higher.

Meanwhile, the risk sentiment was also supported by the reports that the US FDA has approved the antibody-drug used by U.S. President Donald Trump last month during his treatment of coronavirus for emergency use. These optimistic reports gave the EUR/USD pair strength in the earlier session and pushed its prices to their highest since November 9.

On the data front, at 13:15 GMT, the French Flash Services PMI declined to 38.0 against the forecasted 39.2 and weighed on Euro. The French Flash Manufacturing PMI also fell to 49.1 against the projected 50.2 and weighed on Euro. At 13:30 GMT, the German Flash Manufacturing PMI raised to 57.9 against the forecasted 56.0 and supported Euro. German Flash Services PMI remained flat with the expectations of 46.2. At 14:00 GMT, Flash Manufacturing PMI from Eurozone in November raised to 53.6 from the projected 53.2 and supported single currency Euro. Flash Services PMI declined 41.3 against the expected 42.2 and weighed on Euro.

The mixed data from Eurozone related to business activity failed to provide any significant movement in EUR/USD pair while the currency pair followed the U.S. dollar movement after the release of macroeconomic data in the American session.

At 19:45 GMT, the Flash Manufacturing PMI from the U.S. in November rose to 56.7 against the projected 52.5 and supported the U.S. dollar. The Flash Services PMI surged to 57.7 against the projected 55.8 and supported the U.S. dollar. After the release of better than expected Manufacturing and Services PMI, the strong U.S. dollar exerted pressure on EUR/USD pair on Monday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.1855      1.1871

1.1845      1.1877

1.1839      1.1888

Pivot point: 1.1861

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD traded sharply bearish, falling from 1.1866 level to 1.1816 support level, which is extended by double bottom level. Closing of a candle over 1.1816 is supported by bullish correction, but at the same time, the EUR/USD pair may also head further higher until the 1.1866 resistance mark. On the 2 hour timeframe, the EUR/USD pair was supported by an upward trendline, which got violated on Monday, and now the same trendline is supporting EUR/USD pair. Let’s look for a selling trade below the 1.1866 level today. 


GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair closed at 1.33222 after a high of 1.33975 and a low of 1.32636. The British Pound raised to its 10-weeks high level and then gave up some gains against the U.S. dollar in late trading sessions on the back of U.S. dollar strength. The rise in GBP/USD pair came in after the rising optimism over a Brexit deal after the European Commission reportedly told E.U. ambassadors that 95% of a post-Brexit deal had been agreed. The deal might be announced over the coming days to allow sufficient time for ratification by the European Parliament before year-end, possibly just the week after Christmas.

Meanwhile, on the data front, at 14:30 GMT, the Flash Manufacturing PMI from the U.K. raised to 55.2 against the forecasted 50.5 and supported British Pound and supported GBP/USD pair. The Flash Services PMI for November from the U.K. also raised to 45.8 against the forecasted 43.2 and supported British Pound and added gains in the GBP/USD pair.

From the U.S. side, at 19:45 GMT, the Flash Manufacturing PMI from the U.S. in November surged to 56.7 against the anticipated 52.5 and supported the U.S. dollar that capped further gains in GBP/USD pair. The Flash Services PMI rose to 57.7 against the forecasted 55.8 and supported the U.S. dollar, and GBP/USD pair lost some of its gains.

Meanwhile, on Monday, the Governor of Bank of England Andrew Bailey said that the long-term effects of a no-deal Brexit on the economy would be worse than the coronavirus pandemic’s long-term impacts. He added that he was relatively optimistic about the economy’s ability to recover from the coronavirus outbreak, but it would be more difficult to adjust with the U.K. trading with the E.U. on World Trade Organization terms.

These concerns added pressure on risk-on market sentiment and made GBP/USD pair to lost some of its earlier daily losses.

Furthermore, Prime Minister Boris Johnson confirmed that the England lockdown would be lifted on December 2, though regional restrictions would be kept to stop coronavirus spread. The second lockdown miscued the U.K. economy that the economy could slip into a double-dip recession and these concerns also added pressure on the GBP/USD pair that lost some of its earlier daily gains.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.3289      1.3312

1.3274      1.3320

1.3266      1.3336

Pivot point: 1.3297

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD traded bearishly at 1.3290, but it now seems to bounce off over the support area of the 1.3292 level. On the higher side, the pair may go after the resistance level of 1.3394. Over there’s an upward trendline that is supporting Sterling on the 2-hour timeframe. Below the 1.3292 level, the Cable may find support at the 1.3240 level while the RSI and MACD are in support of buying. Thus we should consider taking buying trade over the 1.3292 level to target 1.3394. 


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair closed at 104.544 after placing a high of 104.635 and a low of 103.681. The USD/JPY pair rose by about 100 pips on Monday after the U.S. dollar became strong across the board. The strength of the greenback was derived from the release of macroeconomic data from the U.S.

At 19:45 GMT, the Flash Manufacturing PMI from the U.S. in November raised to 56.7 against the estimated 52.5 and supported the U.S. dollar. The Flash Services PMI surged to 57.7 against the estimated 55.8 and supported the U.S. dollar that added gains in the USD/JPY pair on Monday.

The better-than-expected U.S. business activity data showed that it was expanded in November at its fastest rate in more than five years and boosted optimism about the U.S. economy’s health that lifted the U.S. dollar, and provided strength to the rising USD/JPY pair.

Other than economic data, the USD/JPY pair was also supported by the market’s rising risk sentiment. The risk sentiment was supported by the latest optimism regarding vaccine developments from different countries. AstraZeneca, the British pharmaceutical, said that its vaccine was 70% effective on the first dosage and 90% effective on the second dosage.

It also reported that it would be cost-effective also as it does not require the frozen temperature to be stored and can only be stored in a refrigerator. These optimistic reports added strength in the risk sentiment and weighed on the safe-haven Japanese Yen that ultimately added strength in the USD/JPY pair.

On Monday, another positive news was that Regeneron’s coronavirus antibody cocktail that President Donald Trump used last month when he was hospitalized with COVID-19 had been approved for an emergency authorization use by the US FDA. There were also reports that the vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNtech will likely be approved by the US FDA by December 11 and will be available for Americans to use.

With more progress in the vaccine area, lifting the lockdown restrictions increased along with the chances for an economic recovery that raised the risk sentiment and weighed on the safe-haven Japanese Yen that added gains in the USD/JPY pair. However, the pandemic hit economy still needs further support from governments to go through the crisis, and that is why investors were hopeful that the Fed and European Central Banks would likely issue more stimulus aid in December. The USD/JPY pair will likely rise as the risk sentiment has been improved after vaccine development progress.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

103.76      103.87

103.69      103.93

103.64      103.99

Pivot point: 103.81

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY has violated a choppy range of 104.056 – 103.667 level. On the higher side, a bullish breakout of 104.056 resistance can extend the buying trend until the next resistance area of 104.59 and 105.063 level. On the lower side, the support continues to hold around 104.056 and 103.667 level. The MACD suggests an overbought situation of the USD/JPY pair; thus, we should look for selling trade below 104.598 and buying above the same. Good luck! 

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Nov 23 – Ethereum Exploding as its 2.0 Update Launch Approaches; Crypto Market in the Green

The cryptocurrency sector has spent the weekend being quite volatile as Bitcoin had a flash crash, which brought its price below $18,000, followed by a rally that brought it back above it. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap is currently trading for $18,461, representing an increase of 0.61% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum skyrocketed by gaining 8.13% on the day, while XRP gained 0.09%.

 Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

Waves 38.43% in the past 24 hours, making it the most prominent daily gainer in the top100. It is closely followed by Horizen’s gain of 31.65% and Numeraire’s 21.56% gain. On the other hand, Terra lost 5.45%, making it the most prominent daily loser. HedgeTrade lost 3.22% while Crypto.com Coin lost 1.65%, making them the 2nd and 3rd most prominent daily losers.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s market dominance has reduced drastically over the course of the weekend, with its value is currently staying at 63.2%. This value represents a 2.9% difference to the downside compared to the value it had on Friday.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The crypto sector capitalization has increased significantly over the course of the weekend. Its current value is $541.71 billion, representing a $34.48 billion increase compared to our previous report.

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What happened in the past 24 hours?

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Technical analysis

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Bitcoin

The largest cryptocurrency by market cap has spent the weekend with decently high volatility as its price managed to go from above $18,500 to $17,600 and then back above $18,500 in just one day. While this “flash crash” is behind Bitcoin, the bulls seem to be more and more wary of the new highs, and a retracement before another push towards the upside is quite possible.

Due to many people taking profits and shorting Bitcoin to hedge their portfolios, the largest currency has a hard time going up. However, trading pullbacks in a bull trend is equally as risky. Bitcoin traders would have the most chance of succeeding if they traded only long positions.

BTC/USD 2-hour Chart

Bitcoin’s technicals are semi-divided, with its daily and monthly overviews showing a slight bullish tilt with signs of bears still present. In contrast, the 4-hour and weekly overviews show no signs of bearish presence and are completely bullish.

BTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Price is above its 50-period EMA and at its 21-period EMA
  • Price is at its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (51.42)
  • Volume is average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $18500                                  1: $17,850

2: $19000                                  2: $17,450

3: $19500                                   3: $17,130

Ethereum

Ethereum’s 2.0 version 0 launch is approaching, and Ethereum bulls seem to be back in the game. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap broke out of the ascending (red) line and pushed towards the upside, eyeing the $600 resistance level. While the rally was strong, Ethereum bulls started showing exhaustion at $580. With that being said, the move is still not considered over, and there is more opportunity to the upside.

We mentioned on Friday that Ethereum’s downside is quite defined, but that its upside isn’t. With ETH entering territory that was explored only a couple of times, the opportunity for volatility (but also slippage) is increasing.

ETH/USD 4-hour Chart

Ethereum’s 4-hour and daily time-frames are completely bullish, while its longer time-frames (weekly and monthly) are slightly more tilted towards the neutral position.

ETH/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical Factors (4-hour Chart):
  • The price is far above both its 50-period and its 21-period EMA
  • Price is at its top Bollinger band
  • RSI is extremely overbought (72.01)
  • Volume is above average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $600                                     1: $510

2: $630                                     2: $500 

3: $735                                      3: $490

Ripple

The fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap has, just like Ethereum, had quite an amazing weekend. XRP continued its rally to the upside that began on Nov 20 and reached as high as $0.49 before starting to consolidate. While consolidating, it has seemingly created a triangle formation that should keep its price at bay before ~80% of the formation is done.

While it is quite unknown how XRP will act right now, all chances are that it will stay within the triangle formation’s bounds for some time, at least.

XRP/USD 1-hour Chart

XRP’s daily and weekly overviews are completely bullish and show no signs of neutrality, while its 4-hour and monthly overviews show slight neutrality.

XRP/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • The price is above its 50-period EMA and at its 21-period EMA
  • Price is slightly above its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (53.65)
  • Volume is above average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $0.476                                   1: $0.3328 

2: $0.509                                   2: $0.3244

3: $0.792                                  3: $0.31

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, November 23 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – PMI Figures in Highlights! 

On the news front, eyes will remain on the Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI figures from the Eurozone, the U.K., and the United States. Almost all economic figures are expected to perform better than previous months, perhaps due to a lift of lockdown. Price action will depend upon any surprise changes in the PMI figures.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair closed at 1.18563 after placing a high of 1.18906 and a low of 1.18495. Despite vaccine-related optimism and improved risk sentiment in the market, the currency pair EUR/USD dropped on Friday amid the continuous rise in the number of coronavirus cases along with the latest disagreement between the Fed and U.S. Treasury related to the unused funds of emergency lending programs.

On Thursday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin sent a letter to Fed’s Chair Jerome Powell and asked him to return the unused funds in five emergency lending programs that will expire in December. Mnuchin claimed that those funds could be used for other purposes by Congress. Mnuhcin also asked Powell to extend the other four emergency credit facilities.

Meanwhile, the U.S. coronavirus situation got worse as November was not still over, but there have been almost 3 million new cases reported. It is about a quarter of all the U.S. cases since the beginning of the pandemic. The U.S. hospitalization rate was getting higher to an alarming level as it was forcing the health care system to reduce care for even non-COVID-19 patients.

Given the coronavirus situation in the U.S., many states announced restrictive measures to control the spread. On the European side, the situation was a bit under control after the strict lockdown measures. However, the old continent’s situation in Europe was far from getting better, and market players were worried that a steep economic downturn would be seen in the last quarter of the year.

These tensions raised the concerns that economic recovery was under pressure and supported the safe-haven appeal that ultimately weighed on the risk perceived EUR/USD pair on Friday. Furthermore, central banks’ calls for another round of stimulus measures to help support the economy started to increase. In response, the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has been refrained to give any hint about any action in December whereas, his European counterpart Christine Lagarde has said that a large easing package will be coming in the next meeting. Lagarde’s comments also weighed on the single currency that ultimately added losses in the EUR/USD pair on Friday.

At 12:00 GMT, The German PPI for October remained flat at 0.1% on the data front. At 19:50 GMT, the Consumer Confidence also came in line with the expectations of -18. There was no macroeconomic figure to be released from the U.S., which means the pair EUR/USD was unaffected by any data on Friday.

Meanwhile, the vaccine news from Pfizer and BioNtech that they were going to apply for US FDA approval for emergency authorization use of their vaccine raised the risk sentiment in the market. Combined with this optimism, the other companies, including Moderna, Oxford, the Russian Sputnik V, and China’s Sinovac, also provided updates about the vaccine’s efficacy and supported the market’s risk of improved sentiment that ultimately capped further losses in the EUR/USD pair.


Daily Technical Levels

Support  Resistance

1.1831      1.1898

1.1790      1.1924

1.1764      1.1965

Pivot point: 1.1857


EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is trading with a bearish bias at the 1.173 level, forming an ascending triangle on the 2-hour timeframe. On the lower side, the pattern supports the EUR/USD pair at 1.1850, and here violation of the 1.1850 level can extend the EUR/USD pair towards the 1.1816 level. On the higher side, a bullish breakout of the 1.1889 level can extend the buying trend until the 1.1924 level. The bullish bias remains dominants today as the MACD and 50 periods EMA support a bullish trend. Let’s consider taking a buying trade over 1.1889 with a take profit of 1.1924 level. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair closed at 1.32891 after placing a high of 1.32977 and a low of 1.32403. GBP/USD remained bullish on Friday amid the latest Brexit optimism and the coronavirus vaccine’s rising hopes. The currency pair remained on the upper track this week as Brexit dominated the scene and supported the British Pound. The coronavirus situation in the U.K. was improving as the U.K. was set to announce a wide easing of coronavirus rules for a week at Christmas.

Next week, Boris Johnson will announce a plan for an easing of rules on Covid, and he also warned that the level of restrictions for the rest of next month would depend on how well the public obey the current lockdown in England that will end on 2nd December. Brexit headlines were, however, contradictory during the week as PM Boris Johnson signaled that the U.K. would prosper without a deal and E.U. officials indicated that talks could collapse. The British press talked about a French compromise on the fisheries issue that a key sticking point in the Brexit deal. After the French compromise on fisheries, the Brexit optimism continued supporting the British Pound and added gains in GBP/USD pair.

Another factor involved in the GBP/USD’s bullish sentiment, Pfizer and BioNtech said that they would apply for approval of emergency use of their vaccine on Friday, which also helped risk sentiment improve and support the British Pound. Following Pfizer, Moderna also said that its vaccine was 94.5% effective in preventing the coronavirus and helped raise the market’s optimism that also supported the GBP/USD pair’s upward trend.

On the data front, at 05:01 GMT, GfK Consumer Confidence remained flat with the forecasted -33. At 12:00 GMT, the Retail Sales from the U.K. for October raised to 1.2% against the expected -0.3% and supported British Pound that added further gains in GBP/USD pair. The Public Sector Net Borrowing declined to 21.6 against the forecasted 31.6B and kept British Pound and added improvements in the currency pair GBP/USD pair.

Meanwhile, in the U.S., the need for a stimulus package increased with the rising coronavirus cases, but Fed Chairman Jerome Powell refrained from giving any hint about further aid in the upcoming December meeting. The hospitalization in the U.S. for coronavirus patients increased to a worse level, forcing many state governors to announce restrictive measures to control the virus’s spread. It weighed on the U.S. dollar and helped GBP/USD pair to post gains on Friday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3211      1.3296

1.3161      1.3331

1.3127      1.3381

Pivot point: 1.3246

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD continues trading bullish at the 1.3307 level, holding over the 1.3303 support level, supporting the buying trend. The recent bullish engulfing candle on the 2-hour timeframe can lead Sterling further higher until the 1.3368 area. The MACD and RSI have crossed over on the higher side, suggesting further odds of bullish trend continuation. Typically such kind of ascending trend breakout can lead the pair further higher, so let’s consider taking buying trade over the 1.3307 level today. 


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair closed at 103.823 after placing a high of 103.909 and a low of 103.700. After falling for six consecutive days, the USD/JPY pair posted small gains on Friday amid the reports about the resumption of the U.S. fiscal aid talks. The small uptick in the USD/JPY pair after massive selling in the previous six days could be solely attributed to optimism led by reports that U.S. lawmakers have agreed to resume talks on another coronavirus stimulus package.

The positive sentiment was somehow offset by the U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s decision to end some pandemic relief for struggling businesses. This came in after the tensions increased about the potential economic fallout from the continuous rise in new coronavirus cases, which held the U.S. dollar bulls from placing aggressive bets.

Meanwhile, the safe-haven appeal came back in the market after the number of coronavirus cases started to increase in the U.S. On Thursday, the U.S. reported about 185,000 cases of coronavirus in a single day and set a record. The number of hospitalized patients in the U.S. also increased by almost 50% in just the last two weeks that eventually urged many states to impose new restrictions to stop the virus from spreading further.

Meanwhile, the Governor of California imposed a 10 PM curfew in most populated U.S. states that will take effect from Saturday. Moreover, the Centre for Disease Control advised Americans not to travel on Thanksgiving holiday as it would increase the infection rate. These concerns added uncertainty in the market and raised a safe-haven appeal that supported the safe-haven Japanese Yen and capped the USD/JPY pair’s gains on Friday.

There was no macroeconomic data from the U.S. on Friday, and from Japan, at 04:30 GMT, the National Core CPI for the year from Japan remained flat with the anticipations of -0.7%. The macroeconomic data failed to impact on currency pair USD/JPY.

Pfizer and BioNtech announced on Friday that they would apply on the day to the US FDA for approval of emergency use of their vaccine on the vaccine front. This, combined with the other companies, included AstraZeneca and Oxford University’s latest reports of their vaccine’s efficacy, added strength in the risk sentiment, and supported the USD/JPY pair’s gains on Friday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

103.56      104.07

103.38      104.40

103.04      104.58

Pivot point: 103.89

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY extends its bearish trend below the 104.102 level, consolidating within a narrow trading range 104.102 – 103.650. On the lower side, the USD/JPY pair is likely to find support at the 103.650 level, and violation of this level can also extend further selling bias until 103.227. On the higher side, the USD/JPY safe-haven pair may find resistance at 104.400 and may help us capture a selling trades below this level as the MACD and RSI support the selling trend today. Good luck! 

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

BTC/USD Weekly Chart Analysis + Possible Outcomes

In this weekly BTC/USD analysis, we will be taking a brief look at the most recent events, current chart technical formations, as well as the possible BTC short-term price outcomes.

Overview

Bitcoin has spent the week constantly pushing towards the upside, with its price moving from around $16,500 on Monday all the way up to $19,000 at one point on Saturday. This left Bitcoin holders in a dilemma: should they hold or hedge their investments. Most holders are already satisfied with the BTC movement and don’t want to invest at such a high price, while some are hedging or even selling their funds to take a profit. On the other hand, such a large rally has “invited” the retail market to join in, and they are the majority of the buy force, alongside institutional investors that do not care about the current price and just want to invest every time they have funds available.

While many analysts called for a stronger pullback long before the most recent push, all significant bear-related signals were false.

Technical factors



Bitcoin has continued moving up, supported by the 50-period MA, which has proven as great support, as well as by the ascending (pink dotted) line. On top of that, the largest cryptocurrency by market cap has done a great job pushing through its previous highs and making higher highs/higher lows. If we consider the year-to-date Bitcoin balance on exchanges dropping 18% and institutions being more and more involved, we can almost certainly expect a long-term price increase.

The hash ribbons indicator is showing miner capitulation (ever since Oct 29), sending out a major buy/accumulation signal.

Likely Outcomes

Bitcoin has one main scenario, as well as one supporting scenario that is likely to play out.

1: If Bitcoin manages to hold the so-called pivot zone (18,250-$18,450), it is almost certain to bounce and reach the all-time high level, and possibly even pass it. In that case, longing Bitcoin after it confirms its position above the pivot zone is a great trade, as it has defined targets (target 1 = Bitcoin’s ATH; target 2 = ride the bull wave and continuously take profit until volume dies out) as well as a defined stop-loss target (right below the pivot zone).

If the first scenario plays out, it will most likely play out on the Nov 23rd, as this is when the pivot zone is meeting the ascending support line and (most likely) the 50-period moving average.

2: The second (and a bit less likely) scenario happens when Bitcoin fails to hold the pivot zone, in which case we can expect a price drop to $17,260.

A move that will end up below $17,260 is highly unlikely, simply due to the overall sentiment currently surrounding Bitcoin.

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, November 20 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eyes on Retail Sales!

The broad-based U.S. dollar failed to stop its overnight losses and remain bearish on the day mainly due to the mixed U.S. Stimulus story. Moreover, the doubts over the U.S. economic recovery in the wake of coronavirus resurgence also weigh on the U.S. dollar. On the news front, eyes will remain on U.K.’s and Canada’s core retail sales to determine further market trends. 

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair managed to stop its previous day losing streak and remain bullish around the 1.1886 level mainly due to the broad-based U.S. dollar selling bias, triggered by the cautious sentiment around the U.S. stimulus story, which ultimately lends support to the currency pair. However, Mnuchin’s call to recollect funds allocated to Federal Reserve, which eventually weighed on the market trading sentiment, failed to provide any support to the greenback as the Republican heavyweight McConnell recently showed readiness to resume the discussions with the Democrats on a new COVID-19 relief package, which ultimately undermined the U.S. dollar. 

That’s very surprising as the U.S. dollar usually draws bids alongside losses in the equities market. On the contrary, the buying interest around the single currency was capped by the intensifying virus fugues in Europe, which eventually becomes the key factor that has been capped further upside in the currency pair. At the moment, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.1888 and consolidating in the range between the 1.1865 – 1.1891.

The equity market has been declining since the day started amid mixed concerns over the U.S. stimulus story. The Mnuchin’s asked the Federal Reserve to return the remaining coronavirus stimulus funds, which could limit the central bank’s capacity to give additional support to businesses at a time when the coronavirus second wave is accelerating. Let me remind you that these funds were meant for global lending to local government, non-profits, businesses. These factors have been weighing on the market trading sentiment, which could be considered as the main factors that cap further downside in the safe-haven U.S. dollar losses.

On the contrary, Republican heavyweight McConnell recently showed a willingness to continue the negotiations with the Democrats on a new COVID-19 relief package. This news is negative for the U.S. dollar, as a stimulus package would have the effect of reducing the U.S. dollar.

As in result, the broad-based U.S. dollar failed to stop its overnight losses and remain bearish on the day mainly due to the mixed U.S. Stimulus story. Moreover, the doubts about the U.S. economic recovery in the wake of coronavirus resurgence also weigh on the U.S. dollar. Thus, the U.S. dollar losses could also be a key factor that kept the currency pair higher. Meantime, the dollar index unchanged at 92.306 (=USD), off Thursday’s low of 92.236, though it is still down 0.3% on the week.

On the bearish side, the intensifying market worries regarding the continuous hike in new coronavirus cases in Europe and the United States keep fueling the doubts over the global economic recovery through imposing back to back lockdown restrictions on economic and social activity, which eventually weighed on the shared currency and becomes the key factor that kept the lid on any additional gains in the currency pair. 

In the absence of significant data/events on the day, the market traders will keep their eyes on the ongoing drama surrounding the U.S. stimulus package. In the meantime, the risk catalyst like geopolitics and the virus woes, not to forget the Brexit, will also be key to watch for a fresh direction. 

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.1836       1.1880

1.1820       1.1908

1.1791       1.1924

Pivot point: 1.1864

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

On Friday, the EUR/USD is trading with a bearish bias at the 1.1844 level, having violated an upward trendline on the hourly chart. On the lower side, the support stays at 1.1832, and below this, the EUR/USD may find next support at 1.1814. On the higher side, the resistance can be found at the 1.1867 level. The bullish bias remains dominants today as the MACD and 50 periods EMA support a bullish trend. We are already holding a buying trade from yesterday; therefore, you are advised to follow our forex signals page for more updates on the EUR/USD pair. 


GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

During Friday’s European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair managed to gain positive traction for the second straight session and refresh the intra-day high around closer to 1.3300 level mainly due to the broad-based U.S. dollar fresh weakness, backed by the doubts over the next round of the U.S. fiscal stimulus measures, which eventually undermined the U.S. dollar and contributed to the currency pair gains. 

On the contrary, the worsening coronavirus (COVID-19) conditions in the U.S. and Europe raised the fears of global economic recovery, which could be considered one of the key factors that kept the lid on any additional gains in the currency pair. In the meantime, the gains in the currency pair were also capped by negative Brexit news. At a particular time, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3275 and consolidating in the range between 1.3247 – 1.3288.

According to the latest report, the European Union (E.U.) prepares for no-deal Brexit plans after the discussions’ dragging. The fears of no-deal Brexit were further bolstered after E.U.’s Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier self-isolated after a member of his team contracted the infection.

Despite the fears of no-deal Brexit and the Sino-American skirmish, not to forget the record single-day increase in COVID-19 cases, the currency pair managed to gain positive traction amid a weaker U.S. dollar. At the USD front, the broad-based U.S. dollar failed to gain any positive traction and edged lower on the day as doubts over the U.S. economic recovery remain amid the coronavirus crisis. The losses in the U.S. dollar kept the currency pair higher. Meantime, the dollar index unchanged at 92.306 (=USD), off Thursday’s low of 92.236, though it is still down 0.3% on the week.

In the absence of significant data/events on the day, the market traders will keep their eyes on the ongoing drama surrounding the U.S. stimulus package. In the meantime, the risk catalyst like geopolitics and the virus woes, not to forget the Brexit, will also be key to watch for a fresh direction. 

Daily Technical Levels

Support    Resistance

1.3155       1.3236

1.3118       1.3280

1.3073       1.3317

Pivot point: 1.3199

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

Most technical levels are the same as Sterling didn’t make any significant change in the market. The GBP/USD pair is trading bullish at the 1.3279 level, holding over the 1.3227 support level, which is extended by an upward trendline on a 2-hour timeframe. The Cable is likely to face immediate resistance at the 1.3297 area, which will be confirmed if the candle starts closing below this level. However, the bullish breakout of the 1.3297 level can drive further upside movement until the 1.3370 level today. 


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

A day before, the USD/JPY pair was closed at 103.795 after placing a high of 104.207 and a low of 103.650. The currency pair USD/JPY remained bearish for the 5th consecutive session on Wednesday and dragged its prices below the 103.700 level. The USD/JPY pair was extending its losses due to the U.S. dollar weakness on Wednesday despite the latest optimism regarding the coronavirus vaccine. On Wednesday, Pfizer announced that its vaccine was 95% effective in its study and planning to seek authorization within days.

This news added to the market’s risk sentiment and supported the equity market by providing a 0.45% gain to Dow Jones and 0.04% to NASDAQ. The latest news from Pfizer and BioNtech failed to impress the market, and the pair USD/JPY continued following the U.S. dollar’s weakness on Wednesday. The currency pair was under pressure as the coronavirus situation was getting worse day by day in the U.S. as the death toll surpassed 250,000 level in the major economy. According to Johns Hopkins University, the coronavirus has cost almost 250,180 American lives so far, and the count was increasing day by day. This raised fears that more restrictions could be imposed in many states, which would slow down the economic recovery. These fears weighed in the local currency U.S. dollar, and hence, USD/JPY remained under pressure for the 5th consecutive session on Wednesday.

Given the rising number of infections in the country, the States like California and Illinois stretched their restrictions to battle the rising number of cases as any financial aid package was not close to being delivered by Congress. The rising number of coronavirus cases in the U.S. has forced U.S. officials to announce that public schools in New York City will close again on Thursday as the city has reached a 3% coronavirus test positivity rate. These fears also kept the U.S. dollar under pressure on Wednesday.

The House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer urged the Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to resume talks related to the coronavirus relief package. However, McConnell was insisting on a targeted package. The U.S. dollar came under further pressure after the hopes for the talks for further stimulus package increased and weighed on the USD/JPY pair.

On the data front, at 02:00 GMT, the TC Long Term Purchases surged to 108.9B from the expected 41.5B and supported the U.S. dollar. At 18:30 GMT, the Building Permits for October came in line with the projections of 1.55M. The Housing Starts rose to 1.53M from the expected 1.45M and supported the U.S. dollar that ultimately capped further losses in the USD/JPY on Wednesday. On the Japanese side, the Trade Balance for October raised to 0.31T against the 0.11T and supported the Japanese Yen that added further pressure on the USD/JPY pair on Wednesday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support    Resistance

103.58       104.16

103.32       104.48

102.99       104.74

Pivot point: 103.90

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY extends its bearish trend below the 104.430 level, falling from the 104.850 support area. On the lower side, the USD/JPY pair is likely to find support at the 103.800 level, and violation of this level can also extend further selling bias until 103.227. On the higher side, the USD/JPY safe-haven pair may find resistance at 104.400 and may help us capture a selling trades below this level as the MACD and RSI support the selling trend today. Good luck! 

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Nov 20 – Bitcoin Conquering $18,000: What’s Next in Store?

The cryptocurrency sector has ended up with the majority of cryptos in the green as Bitcoin continued its rally past $18,000. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap is currently trading for $18,095, representing an increase of 1.31% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum gained 1.59% on the day, while XRP gained 2.42%.

 Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

SushiSwap 31.66% in the past 24 hours, making it the most prominent daily gainer out of the top100 cryptos ranked by market capitalization yet again today. It is closely followed by Waves’ gain of 21.42% and CyberVein’s 17.06% gain. On the other hand, Blockstack lost 8.00%, making it the most prominent daily loser. NEM lost 7.73% while ABBC Coin lost 6.77%, making them the 2nd and 3rd most prominent daily losers.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s market dominance has reduced slightly over the course of the day, with its value is currently staying at 66.1%. This value represents a 0.2% difference to the downside when compared to the value it had yesterday.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The crypto sector capitalization has increased over the course of the day. Its current value is $507.23 billion, representing a $12.16 billion increase compared to our previous report.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

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_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

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Bitcoin

The largest cryptocurrency by market cap has spent the past 24 hours pushing towards and past the $18,000 level after it has won the fight for $17,850. While the move was quite sudden at one point, it was actually not accompanied by a great increase in volume. This has ultimately caused BTC to end its move slightly above $18,200 and start its consolidation phase.

Due to many people taking profits and shorting to hedge their portfolios, Bitcoin has a hard time going up. However, trading pullbacks is equally as risky. Bitcoin traders would have the most chance of success if they traded only pushes to the upside, accompanied by a decent volume increase.

BTC/USD 1-hour Chart

Bitcoin’s technicals on the 4-hour, daily, and monthly time-frame are all bullish but show some signs of neutral presence. On the other hand, its weekly overview is tilted towards the buy-side and doesn’t show any bearishness.

BTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Price is above both its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
  • Price is near its top Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (57)
  • Volume is slightly below average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $18500                                  1: $17,850

2: $19000                                  2: $17,450

3: $19500                                   3: $17,130

Ethereum

Our yesterday’s call for Ethereum traders was that they should wait for the cryptocurrency to confirm its support level or fall under it, and then trade “with the wave.” Ethereum confirmed its position above the yellow dotted line (top line of the ascending channel) and pushed up instantly. The move brought Ether from $470 all the way to $488 before slowing down and starting to consolidate.

While Ethereum’s downside is quite defined, its upside isn’t. Traders should be wary of Ether’s future pushes to the upside, while they should trade any pullback from the retest of the yellow line.

ETH/USD 1-hour Chart

Ethereum’s 4-hour, daily and monthly time-frames are extremely bullish and show no signs of neutrality or bearishness. On the other hand, its weekly overview is still titled to the bull side but does show significant neutrality.

ETH/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical Factors (4-hour Chart):
  • The price is above both its 50-period and its 21-period EMA
  • Price is near its top Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral after bouncing from almost being overbought(59.32)
  • Volume is average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $490                                     1: $470

2: $500                                     2: $451 

3: $510                                      3: $445

Ripple

The fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap has spent the day breaking out of its slow price descent and pushing towards the upside. XRP first changed its price direction at $0.284 and quickly pushed towards the upside, reaching as high as $0.306. However, that price did not hold up, and XRP started trading sideways around the $0.3 mark.

XRP traders should still be safe to trade within the range bound by $0.2855 and $0.31. However, since the range is quite large, traders would be even better if they could spot additional small buy/sell walls in the order books before blindly trading.

XRP/USD 1-hour Chart

XRP’s daily and weekly overviews are completely bullish and show no signs of neutrality, while its 4-hour and monthly overviews show slight neutrality.

XRP/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • The price is above its 50-period EMA and at its 21-period EMA
  • Price is near its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (53.74)
  • Volume is average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $0.31                                     1: $0.28 

2: $0.3244                                 2: $0.27

3: $0.3328                                3: $0.266

 

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Nov 19 – Ethereum 2.0 Most Likely Not Launching on Time; Crypto Sector Consolidating

The cryptocurrency sector has spent the day trying to consolidate after Bitcoin finished its rally. However, while most cryptocurrencies moved less than 1%, almost every one of them ended up in the red. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap is currently trading for $17,708, representing a decrease of 0.73% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum lost 0.49% on the day, while XRP lost 1.53%.

 Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

OKB gained 17.77% in the past 24 hours, making it the most prominent daily gainer out of the top100 cryptos ranked by market capitalization yet again today. It is closely followed by yearn.finance’s gain of 12.48% and SushiSwap’s 11.73% gain. On the other hand, Band Protocol lost 10.00%, making it the most prominent daily loser. Ampleforth lost 9.81% while Aragon lost 7.26%, making them the 2nd and 3rd most prominent daily losers.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s market dominance has stayed at exactly the same place over the course of the day, with its value is currently staying at 66.3%. This value represents no difference when compared to the value it had yesterday.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The crypto sector capitalization has stayed at the same place over the course of the day. Its current value is $495.07 billion, representing a $3.01 billion decrease compared to our previous report.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

_______________________________________________________________________

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

While it may seem that Bitcoin has had a pretty slow and uneventful day, that is certainly not the case. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap has spent the past 24 hours fighting for the $17,850 level and constantly going over and under it. However, the battle is finished, and BTC remains below $17,850 for the time being.

Many traders and analysts are warning BTC traders of a potential triangle formation forming. They also advise traders to refrain from trading until BTC chooses a clear direction.

BTC/USD 1-hour Chart

Bitcoin’s technicals on the daily, weekly, and monthly time-frame are all bullish but show signs of neutral presence. On the other hand, its 4-hour overview is tilted towards the buy-side and doesn’t show any bearishness.

BTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Price is slightly above its 50-period EMA and below its 21-period EMA
  • Price is slightly below its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (44.71)
  • Volume is slightly below average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $18500                                  1: $17,850

2: $19000                                  2: $17,450

3: $19500                                   3: $17,130

Ethereum

Ethereum has established itself above the top line of the ascending channel (yellow dotted line) and is now trading within a new range, bound by the yellow line as support and a new ascending trend line as resistance. Ethereum’s price seems to be in a correction phase at the moment, so we can expect a retest of the yellow line as well as a possible sharp move afterward.

Ethereum traders should wait for the cryptocurrency to confirm its support level or fall under it, and then trade “with the wave.”

ETH/USD 1-hour Chart

Ethereum’s time-frames are slightly tilted towards the buy-side, with its daily overview showing slight bear presence, while its 4-hour and weekly overviews are showing slight neutrality. On the other hand, its monthly overview is completely bullish.

ETH/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical Factors (4-hour Chart):
  • The price is below both its 50-period and its 21-period EMA
  • Price is between its middle and bottom Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (41.77)
  • Volume is slightly below average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $490                                     1: $470

2: $500                                     2: $451 

3: $510                                      3: $445

Ripple

The fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap had another day of slowly marching towards the downside. However, the extremely low volume may be suggesting that the current price movement is a “calm before the storm,” and that a new big move is coming. Analysts are calling for another push towards the upside. Still, a move down is just as likely with the current state of the sector (the crypto sector is currently in a consolidation/correction phase).

XRP/USD 1-hour Chart

XRP’s daily and weekly overviews are completely bullish and show no signs of neutrality or bearishness. On the other hand, its 4-hour and monthly overviews show slight neutrality.

XRP/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • The price is below both its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
  • Price is slightly below its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is pushing towards being oversold (39.45)
  • Volume is below average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $0.31                                     1: $0.28 

2: $0.3244                                 2: $0.27

3: $0.3328                                3: $0.266

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, November 19 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – U.S. Jobless Claims in Focus! 

The economic calendar is filled with medium impact economic events such as Unemployment Claims, C.B. Leading Index m/m, and Existing Home Sales from the United States on the news front. Besides, the Current Account from the Eurozone will also remain in the highlights today. The market may show some price action during the U.S. session on the release of U.S. Jobless Claims.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.18539 after placing a high of 1.18908 and a low of 1.18491. The EUR/USD pair dropped on Wednesday after placing gains for four consecutive days. The EUR/USD pair remained on an upbeat track last days amid the market sentiment’s risk-on market sentiment due to the vaccine optimism. The riskier currencies gathered strength against the safe-havens like the USD and posted gains over the last week. However, on Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair started to decline as Europe’s lockdown situation started to raise fears for economic recovery.

However, the second wave of the coronavirus in Europe started to show signs of slowing. The latest numbers showed a stabilization in new cases in Germany, Spain, Italy and a decline in Belgium, France, and the Netherlands. Despite this, the experts have warned that it was too early to get complacent. The lockdowns and tough social restrictions were reintroduced across numerous European countries in October due to the increased spread of the second wave of coronavirus. These restrictions have been placing a threat on European nations’ economic recovery and weighed on Euro currency that has dragged the EUR/USD pair down on Wednesday.

On the data front, at 02:00 GMT, the TC Long Term Purchases from the U.S. raised to 108.9B against the forecasted 41.5B and supported the U.S. dollar that ultimately added losses in the EUR/USD pair. At 18:30 GMT, the Building Permits from October remained flat with the anticipations of 1.55M. The Housing Starts were raised to 1.53M from the projected 1.45M and supported the U.S. dollar that weighed on EUR/USD pair on Wednesday.

From the European side, at 15:00 GMT, the Final CPI for the year came in line with the expectations of -0.3%. The Final CPI for the year also remained flat as expected, 0.2%. European data failed to impact the EUR/USD pair on Wednesday, and the pair continued following the U.S. dollar’s movement.

The losses in the EUR/USD pair were limited after the risk sentiment was improved in the market due to the latest optimism regarding the coronavirus vaccine. Pfizer and BioNtech announced that they would be filing for emergency authorization of their vaccine in the coming days from the U.S. This raised the optimism that vaccines will soon be available in the market, and the chaos will be lifted from the economy, and it will start to recover. The riskier currency Euro gained traction and capped further losses in the EUR/USD pair on Wednesday.

Daily   Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.1836      1.1880

1.1820      1.1908

1.1791      1.1924

Pivot point: 1.1864

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is trading with a bearish bias at the 1.1844 level, having violated an upward trendline on the hourly chart. On the lower side, the support stays at 1.1832, and below this, the EUR/USD may find next support at 1.1814. On the higher side, the resistance can be found at the 1.1867 level. The bullish bias remains dominants today as the MACD and 50 periods EMA support a bullish trend. We are already holding a buying trade from yesterday; therefore, you are advised to follow our forex signals page for more updates on the EUR/USD pair. 


GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD closed at 1.32670 after placing a high of 1.33120 and a low of 1.32410. The pair GBP/USD continued its bullish momentum for the 4th consecutive day on Wednesday and reached near 1.33200 level. The latest rise in the GBP/USD pair was driven by the growing hopes that a Brexit deal could be within reach after the French President Emmanuel Macron was ready to cave in on demands from the U.K. for full sovereignty waters that will likely rein in access for French fishermen.

This news raised hopes for a Brexit deal before the end of the transition period and supported the British Pound that ultimately lifted the GBP/USD pair higher on board. The Irish Minister Micheal Martin also said that a landing zone for an agreement was within sight just a day ahead of the European Union Summit when the E.U. Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier will brief E.U. leaders about the two weeks of talks held with the U.K.

Chances are increased that an agreement will be made as soon as Monday and will be approved within a week, most likely at the next E.U. Summit on December 10. After that, the European Parliament would have to rubberstamp the agreement to ensure a deal was placed before the end of the transition period on Dec.31st.

All these hopes lifted the British Pound as the chances of a deal were clear for the first time, and things were going in favor of the U.K. However, analysts were concerned that inflation was likely to slow in the months ahead. The GBP/USD pair picked up its pace towards an upward direction due to renewed Brexit optimism and reached near 1.3200 level on Wednesday. On the data front, At 12:00 GMT, the Consumer Price Index for the year raised to 0.7% from the expected 0.5% and supported the Sterling. The year’s Core CPI also raised to 1.5% against the anticipated 1.3% and supported British Pound. The RPI from the U.K. also rose to 1.3% from the expected 1.2% and supported British Pound that ultimately added further gains in GBP/USD pair. At 12:02 GMT, the PPI Input for October surged to 0.2% against the expected 0.0% and supported the British Pound. At the same time, the PPI Output in October remained flat with the expectations of 0.0%. The Housing Price Index from the U.K. also surged to 4.7% against the forecasted 2.9% and supported the British Pound.

The U.K.’s positive macroeconomic data supported the British Pound against the U.S. dollar and raised the GBP/USD pair on Wednesday.

While from the U.S. side, at 02:00 GMT, the TC Long Term Purchases rose to 108.9B against the anticipated 41.5B and supported the U.S. dollar. At 18:30 GMT, the Building Permits for October remained flat with the projections of 1.55M. The Housing Starts surged to 1.53M from the anticipated 1.45M and supported the U.S. dollar that ultimately capped further gains in GBP/USD pair on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, the Bank of England’s Chief Economist Andy Haldane said that the economic outlook for 2021 was materially brighter than he had expected just a few weeks ago despite the short-term uncertainty from a renewed coronavirus lockdown in England. He said that Britain’s economy shrank by almost 20% in the second quarter of 2020, more than any other peer economy, and at the end of September, it was still 8.4% smaller than a year before. He struck a somewhat positive note in line with his previous assessments of Britain’s recovery on Wednesday that raised the British Pound on board against the U.S. dollar. This also benefited the GBP/USD pair on Wednesday, and hence, the pair ended its day with a bullish candle.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3155      1.3236

1.3118      1.3280

1.3073      1.3317

Pivot point: 1.3199

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD pair is trading bullish at the 1.3279 level, holding over the 1.3227 support level, which is extended by an upward trendline on a 2-hour timeframe. The Cable is likely to face immediate resistance at the 1.3297 area, which will be confirmed if the candle starts closing below this level. However, the bullish breakout of the 1.3297 level can drive further upside movement until the 1.3370 level today. 


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 103.795 after placing a high of 104.207 and a low of 103.650. The currency pair USD/JPY remained bearish for the 5th consecutive session on Wednesday and dragged its prices below the 103.700 level. The USD/JPY pair was extending its losses due to the U.S. dollar weakness on Wednesday despite the latest optimism regarding the coronavirus vaccine. On Wednesday, Pfizer announced that its vaccine was 95% effective in its study and planning to seek authorization within days.

This news added to the market’s risk sentiment and supported the equity market by providing a 0.45% gain to Dow Jones and 0.04% to NASDAQ. The latest news from Pfizer and BioNtech failed to impress the market, and the pair USD/JPY continued following the U.S. dollar’s weakness on Wednesday.

The currency pair was under pressure as the coronavirus situation was getting worse day by day in the U.S. as the death toll surpassed 250,000 level in the major economy. According to Johns Hopkins University, the coronavirus has cost almost 250,180 American lives so far, and the count was increasing day by day. This raised fears that more restrictions could be imposed in many states, which would slow down the economic recovery. These fears weighed in the local currency U.S. dollar, and hence, USD/JPY remained under pressure for the 5th consecutive session on Wednesday.

Given the rising number of infections in the country, the States like California and Illinois stretched their restrictions to battle the rising number of cases as any financial aid package was not close to being delivered by Congress. The rising number of coronavirus cases in the U.S. has forced U.S. officials to announce that public schools in New York City will close again on Thursday as the city has reached a 3% coronavirus test positivity rate. These fears also kept the U.S. dollar under pressure on Wednesday.

The House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer urged the Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to resume talks related to the coronavirus relief package. However, McConnell was insisting on a targeted package. The U.S. dollar came under further pressure after the hopes for the talks for further stimulus package increased and weighed on the USD/JPY pair.

On the data front, at 02:00 GMT, the TC Long Term Purchases surged to 108.9B from the expected 41.5B and supported the U.S. dollar. At 18:30 GMT, the Building Permits for October came in line with the projections of 1.55M. The Housing Starts rose to 1.53M from the expected 1.45M and supported the U.S. dollar that ultimately capped further losses in the USD/JPY on Wednesday. On the Japanese side, the Trade Balance for October raised to 0.31T against the 0.11T and supported the Japanese Yen that added further pressure on the USD/JPY pair on Wednesday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

103.58      104.16

103.32      104.48

102.99      104.74

Pivot point: 103.90

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY extends its bearish trend below the 104.430 level, falling from the 104.850 support area. On the lower side, the USD/JPY pair is likely to find support at the 103.800 level, and violation of this level can also extend further selling bias until 103.227. On the higher side, the USD/JPY safe-haven pair may find resistance at 104.400 and may help us capture a selling trades below this level as the MACD and RSI support the selling trend today. Good luck! 

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Nov 18 – Bitcoin Encounters Heavy Resistance at $18,500: What Happens Next?

The cryptocurrency sector has spent the day mostly stable and looking at Bitcoin as it kept pushing towards highs unseen after the bull run of late 2017. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap is currently trading for $17.829, representing an increase of 6.64% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum gained 2.00% on the day, while XRP lost 1.90%.

 Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

Nexo gained 14.37% in the past 24 hours, making it the most prominent daily gainer out of the top100 cryptos ranked by market capitalization yet again today. It is closely followed by Bitcoin Gold’s gain of 10.84% and DigiByte’s 9.52% gain. On the other hand, SushiSwap lost 12.92%, making it the most prominent daily loser. Curve DAO Token lost 10.74% while HedgeTrade lost 10.07%, making them the 2nd and 3rd most prominent daily losers.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s market dominance has skyrocketed over the course of the day, with its value is currently staying at 66.3%. This value represents a 1.4% difference to the upside compared to the value it had yesterday.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The crypto sector capitalization has gone up quite a bit over the course of the day. Its current value is $498.06 billion, representing a $20.84 billion increase compared to our previous report.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

_______________________________________________________________________

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

Bitcoin has had a parabolic run to the upside, reaching as high as $18,500 before dropping down. While the price gain was gradual at first, Bitcoin’s final push from $17,600 to $18,500 and then back to nearly $17,000 happened in just a couple of hours. This volatility came to be because BTC encountered heavy resistance at the now-confirmed $18,500 resistance level. Many traders call this move just a temporary pullback before a new high, while a minority is calling a short-term top.

Trading Bitcoin on a bull trend such as this one should only happen in one direction, and that is WITH the trend. Shorting Bitcoin and attempting to catch pullbacks will be far less lucrative due to the size of the move, as well as much riskier.

BTC/USD 1-hour Chart

Bitcoin’s technicals on the 4-hour, daily, and weekly time-frame are all completely bullish and show no signs of bear or neutral presence. On the other hand, its monthly overview is tilted towards the buy-side just slightly and does show some bearishness.

BTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Price is far above its 50-period EMA and above its 21-period EMA
  • Price is between its middle and top Bollinger band
  • RSI is stabilizing after leaving the overbought territory (61.38)
  • Volume is descending
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $18500                                  1: $17,850

2: $19000                                  2: $17,450

3: $19500                                   3: $17,130

Ethereum

Ethereum had had a turbulent 24 hour period, as its price went from fighting for and hovering over the top line of the ascending channel all the way to $495 and then back to $455 before it stabilized at around $475. This move has clearly shown the market another ascending line (red) formed on the ETH/USD chart, which has been tested a couple of times already. This line is Ethereum’s final resistance towards $500.

Ethereum should, as most cryptos at the moment, be traded only to the upside, as trading its pullbacks during a bull market is simply not worth it.

ETH/USD 2-hour Chart

Ethereum’s weekly time-frame shows some neutrality alongside its overall bullish stance, while the other time-frames show complete bullishness.

ETH/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical Factors (4-hour Chart):
  • The price is above both its 50-period and its 21-period EMA
  • Price is slightly above its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (55.77)
  • Volume is above average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $490                                     1: $470

2: $500                                     2: $451 

3: $510                                      3: $445

Ripple

The fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap started off the day by pushing towards the upside and almost reaching its $0.31 resistance level. However, the bears have stepped in and brought XRP’s price down to $0.28 before consolidating in the middle of the range between the two aforementioned levels.

If Bitcoin doesn’t make another sharp move in the short-term, XRP is (yet again) sideways-action crypto. However, if BTC moves, it’s safest to watch Bitcoin and trade along with the bullish moves while discarding the bearish entries.

XRP/USD 4-hour Chart

XRP’s 4-hour, daily, and weekly technicals are tilted towards the buy-side, and while they aren’t showing signs of neutrality, the bullish sentiment isn’t as strong either. The monthly overview does, on the other hand, show clear signs of neutrality.

XRP/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • The price is above its 50-period EMA and at its 21-period EMA
  • Price is at its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (54.33)
  • Volume is above average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $0.31                                     1: $0.28 

2: $0.3244                                 2: $0.27

3: $0.3328                                3: $0.266

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, November 18 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Series of Inflation Reports Ahead! 

On the news front, eyes will remain on the low and medium series impacts economic evens from U.K., Eurozone, and Canada. Its the CPI figures which are coming from all three major economies during European and the U.S. sessions. The U.K. and Eurozone Inflation reports are expected to remain neutral, with no major change expected, and these may have a muted impact on the market. However, the Canadian CPI is expected to perform slightly better, surging by 0.2% vs. -0.1% dip during the previous month. It may support Lonnie pairs today.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.18605 after placing a high of 1.18935 and a low of 1.18423. The EUR/USD pair continued to move in bullish track for the 4th consecutive day on Tuesday amid the downbeat economic data from the U.S. and broad-based U.S. dollar weakness. The improved risk sentiment in the market continued supporting the EUR/USD pair on Tuesday in the early trading session, which pushed the currency pair towards a fresh weekly high at 1.1894. The risk sentiment was supported by the latest optimism from the vaccine candidates of Pfizer and Moderna. After the latest announcement from Moderna that its vaccine was 94.5% effective in last stage trials, the risk sentiment picked its pace and favored the riskier assets like EUR/USD pair.

However, the currency pair could not remain on the top for long and started losing some of its daily gains on Tuesday amid the risk-off market environment in the second half of the day. The U.S. dollar gained traction in the second half and weighed on the currency pair EUR/USD after the chances for a further stimulus package from Congress declined.

The U.S. Dollar Index was down to an 8-day lowest level of 92.26 in the first half of the day because of the rising number of coronavirus cases and lockdown restrictions in the economy. The increased number of coronavirus cases from the U.S. forced governments to impose restrictive measures to control the spread of the virus, and the chances for quick economic recovery faded that ultimately weighed on the U.S. dollar and helped EUR/USD pair to reach a new weekly high level.

However, the U.S. dollar lost its momentum after the release of its macroeconomic data on Tuesday. At 18:30 GMT, the Core Retail Sales for October dropped to 0.2% from the estimated 0.6% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. In October from the U.S., the Retail Sales also dropped to 0.3% from the expected 0.5% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The Import Prices in the U.S. for October were declined to -0.1% from the estimated 0.2%and weighed on the U.S. dollar that helped EUR/USD pair to post gains.

At 19:00 GMT, the Capacity Utilization Rate from the U.S. raised to 72.8% against the forecasted 72.3% and supported the U.S. dollar that capped further gains in EUR/USD pair. The Industrial Production remained flat with the anticipations of 1.1% in October. At 20:00 GMT, the Business Inventories for September surged to 0.7% against the projected 0.5% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The NAHB Housing Market Index from the U.S. surged to 90 from the estimated 85 and supported the U.S. dollar that eventually weighed on the EUR/USD pair and capped further gains.

From the European side, at 14:02 GMT, the Italian Trade Balance raised to 5.85B against the forecasted 4.30B. It supported the single currency Euro that ultimately added gains in the EUR/USD pair.

Furthermore, the European Central Bank President, Christine Lagarde, sounded pessimistic on Tuesday concerning the economic outlook and said that there was very negative news on the second wave of coronavirus in the economy before vaccine news. She expected a massive effect of the second wave of COVID-19 on the European economy into 2021. These comments from Lagarde also kept the pair EUR/USD under pressure on Tuesday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.1837      1.1890

1.1814      1.1918

1.1785      1.1942

Pivot Point: 1.1866

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is trading with a bullish bias, holding mostly above the upward trendline support level of 1.1850. Closing of candles above the 1.1869 level is likely to drive bullish movement in the EUR/USD pair until the 1.1885 level. The bullish bias remains dominants today as the MACD and 50 periods EMA support a bullish trend. We are already holding a buying trade from yesterday; therefore, you are advised to follow our forex signals page for more updates on the EUR/USD pair. 


GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.32483 after a high of 1.32724 and a low of 1.31863. The GBP/USD pair raised and continued its bullish track for 3rd consecutive day on Tuesday amid the latest Brexit hopes.

Due to the increased number of COVID-19 cases from across the globe, and the restrictive measures by countries to curb the virus’s spread, the demand for safe-haven currencies increased. In contrast, the riskier currencies like the British Pound remained under pressure.

The Sterling remained supportive in this risk-off mode due to the latest comments from the U.K. chief negotiator, David Frost, that boosted the Brexit deal’s confidence. According to a news report by the U.K. newspaper, The Sun, the previous concerns about the differences in key issues vanished after Britain’s chief negotiator David Frost commented to Boris Johnson that he expects a trade deal signed early next week.

After these comments from David Frost, the GBP/USD pair rallied and started moving upward for the 3rd consecutive day.

Meanwhile, the risk sentiment buoyed by the latest optimism regarding the vaccine development from Moderna also supported the British Pound’s bullish momentum and added further to the gains of the GBP/USD pair on Tuesday. Furthermore, the U.S. dollar weakness also played an important role in pushing the currency pair GBP/USD higher on Tuesday with poor macroeconomic figures. At 18:30 GMT, the Core Retail Sales for October declined to 0.2% from the expected 0.6% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. In October from the U.S., the Retail Sales also fell to 0.3% from the anticipated 0.5% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The Import Prices in the U.S. for October fell to -0.1% against the projected 0.2%and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added further gains in the GBP/USD pair on Tuesday.

At 19:00 GMT, the Capacity Utilization Rate from the U.S. surged to 72.8% against the anticipated 72.3% and supported the U.S. dollar that capped further gains in GBP/USD pair. The Industrial Production came in line with the projections of 1.1% in October. At 20:00 GMT, the Business Inventories for September increased to 0.7% against the estimated 0.5% and weighed on the U.S. dollar, which added strength to the GBP/USD pair. The NAHB Housing Market Index from the U.S. rose to 90 from the projected 85 and supported the U.S. dollar.

Meanwhile, the governor of Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, said that the development of seemingly effective coronavirus vaccines was a bigger step forward for the economy that could lower uncertainty and get firms to reinvest. He also said that the business investment had been unusually weak since the financial crisis and weighting on productivity. Bailey also said that the changes due to coronavirus would more likely be within the services sector as it can be seen with a focus on digital services over the face to face work taking hold. Moreover, the Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden said that positive news about the coronavirus vaccine could help reduce the risks facing Britain’s economy. Still, the central bank was unlikely to revise up its forecasts as a result.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3155      1.3236

1.3118      1.3280

1.3073      1.3317

Pivot point: 1.3199

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD pair is trading bullish at the 1.3279 level, holding over the 1.3227 support level, which is extended by an upward trendline on a 2-hour timeframe. The Cable is likely to face immediate resistance at the 1.3297 area, which will be confirmed if the candle starts closing below this level. However, the bullish breakout of the 1.3297 level can drive further upside movement until the 1.3370 level today. 


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 104.184 after placing a high of 104.598 and a low of 104.069. The pair USD/JPY continued its bearish trend for the 4th consecutive day on Tuesday amid broad-based U.S. dollar weakness and Japanese yen strength due to safe-haven appeal.

On Tuesday, the USD/JPY pair fell below 104.1 level after the safe-haven demand rose due to the increasing number of coronavirus cases and the restrictions from all over the world. Many countries started imposing restrictive measures to control the spread of coronavirus that raised concerns over the global economy’s recovery that lifted the safe-haven appeal. The rising safe-haven demand supported the safe-haven Japanese Yen and weighed on the USD/JPY pair on Tuesday.

The safe-haven demand deteriorated a little after the latest optimism regarding the vaccine development from Moderna that gave an efficacy rate of 94.5%. However, there was still a long way to go before the vaccine can be delivered to everyone. According to Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida, the chances for the U.S. economic recovery have been improved due to candidates’ successful test from both Moderna and Pfizer Inc.

On the U.S. front, the U.S. dollar was weak due to the poor macroeconomic data on Tuesday. At 18:30 GMT, the Core Retail Sales for October fell to 0.2% from the anticipated 0.6% and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added pressure on the USD/JPY pair. In October from the U.S., the Retail Sales also declined to 0.3% from the forecasted 0.5% and weighed on the U.S. dollar that weighed on USD/JPY pair. The Import Prices in the U.S. for October were declined to -0.1% from the estimated 0.2%and weighed on the U.S. dollar added pressure on the USD/JPY pair.

At 19:00 GMT, the Capacity Utilization Rate from the U.S. surged to 72.8% against the estimated 72.3% and supported the U.S. dollar that capped further losses in the USD/JPY pair. The Industrial Production came in line with the anticipations of 1.1% in October. At 20:00 GMT, the Business Inventories for September rose to 0.7% against the projected 0.5% and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added pressure on the USD/JPY pair. The NAHB Housing Market Index from the U.S. surged to 90 from the expected 85 and supported the U.S. dollar that eventually capped further losses in the USD/JPY pair.

Moreover, the Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, said on Tuesday that as the coronavirus cases were increasing to an alarming rate, it was the time when there was a bigger need for further coronavirus relief from Congress. Powell also noted that the recent announcements from Pfizer and Moderna were certainly good news in the medium term; however, major challenges and uncertainties remain in the near term.

Powell also said that Congress should deliver direct financial support targeted to specific groups instead of using the Federal Reserve’s lending tools. Powell’s comments also weighed on the USD/JPY pair as the need for further support from the Fed and Congress weighed on the U.S. dollar.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

103.95      104.51

103.73      104.85

103.39      105.08

Pivot point: 104.29

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY extends its bearish trend below the 104.430 level, falling from the 104.850 support area. On the lower side, the USD/JPY pair is likely to find support at the 103.800 level, and violation of this level can also extend further selling bias until 103.227. On the higher side, the USD/JPY safe-haven pair may find resistance at 104.400 and may help us capture a selling trades below this level as the MACD and RSI support the selling trend today. Good luck! 

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Nov 17 – Bitcoin Crushes $16,500; XRP Explodes to the Upside

The cryptocurrency sector has spent the day trying to reach past its recent highs as Bitcoin pushed past $16,500. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap is currently trading for $16,718, representing an increase of 2.97% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum gained 2.34% on the day, while XRP gained an astonishing 10.46%.

 Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

Curve DAO Token gained 14.27% in the past 24 hours, making it the most prominent daily gainer out of the top100 cryptos ranked by market capitalization yet again today. It is closely followed by yearn.finance’s gain of 12.92% and Litecoin’s 10.99% gain. On the other hand, THORChain lost 7.28%, making it the most prominent daily loser. The Midas Touch Gold lost 6.16% while Uniswap lost 4.22%, making them the 2nd and 3rd most prominent daily losers.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s market dominance has decreased slightly over the course of the day, with its value is currently staying at 64.9%. This value represents a 0.1% difference to the downside compared to the value it had yesterday.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The crypto sector capitalization has gone up very slightly over the course of the day. Its current value is $477.28 billion, representing a $13.89 billion increase compared to our previous report.

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What happened in the past 24 hours?

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Technical analysis

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Bitcoin

After confirming its stance above $16,000 after fighting for it over the weekend, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization pushed towards $16,500 and attempted to reach new highs. The push was strong as there was no real sell pressure, so Bitcoin reached past $16,500 (and eventually past $16,700) without any real increase in volume. While the $16,500 position has been successfully tested once, the $16,700 level is still not completely won.

Trading Bitcoin on a bull trend such as this one should only happen in one direction: WITH the trend. Shorting Bitcoin and trying to catch pullbacks will be less lucrative due to the size of the move, as well as riskier due to the market sentiment.

BTC/USD 4-hour Chart

Bitcoin’s technicals are tilted towards the buy-side on all four time-frames (4-hour, daily, weekly, and monthly). However, all of them have some form of neutrality, implying that the bullish sentiment is not absolute.

BTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Price is far above its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
  • Price is near its top Bollinger band
  • RSI is approaching the overbought territory (65.02)
  • Volume is average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $17,000                                 1: $16,700

2: $18000                                  2: $16,500

3: $18500                                   3: $16,000

Ethereum

Ethereum has spent the past two days slowly moving towards the top line of the ascending channel after pulling back to $440. The move was gradual but saw some resistance when it reached the top line. However, Ethereum bulls endured and ultimately broke the level but got instantly stuck at the $470 resistance, which is another wall they have to jump over to remain above this channel.

If Ethereum’s struggles to break the $470 level continue, we may expect a pullback of some sort. With that being said, due to the overall sentiment towards Ethereum (and its 2.0 implementation) as well as the state of the crypto sector, shorting Ethereum should not be a proper trading strategy, even if ETH does pull back.

ETH/USD 4-hour Chart

Ethereum’s 1-day technicals are slightly bullish but are showing signs of neutrality. On the other hand, its 4-hour, weekly, and monthly overviews are completely tilted towards the buy-side.

ETH/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical Factors (4-hour Chart):
  • The price is above both its 50-period and its 21-period EMA
  • Price is slightly above its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (57.54)
  • Volume is average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $470                                     1: $451

2: $490                                     2: $445 

3: $500                                      3: $420

Ripple

The fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap had yet another incredible day, with its price pushing past the $0.27 and even $0.2855 resistance levels. An incredible bull wave brought XRP’s price to $0.3 before it started to pull back slightly. This move has pushed XRP further up towards being the best-performing asset over a 1-week period compared to BTC and ETH, with gains of 18% this week, compared to BTC’s gains of 2.95 and ETH’s gains of 0.76.

Traders can finally look at XRP as a cryptocurrency that isn’t just used for sideways trading, and look for opportunities near new highs.

XRP/USD 4-hour Chart

XRP’s 4-hour, daily, and monthly technicals are slightly tilted towards the buy-side, and all of them are showing more or less signs of neutrality. The weekly overview is, on the other hand, completely bullish.

XRP/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • The price is above its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
  • Price is at its top Bollinger band
  • RSI is heavily overbought (76.99)
  • Volume is above average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $0.31                                     1: $0.2855 

2: $0.3244                                 2: $0.27

3: $0.3328                                3: $0.266

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, November 17 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Retail Sales in Focus! 

TheThe eyes will remain on the retail sales, Capacity Utilization Rate, and Industrial Production from the United States on the news side on the news side. Retail sales are expected to drop, and they may place bearish pressure on the U.S. dollar. At the same time, the Capacity Utilization Rate and Industrial Production are expected to perform better.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.18537 after placing a high of 1.18686 and a low of 1.18139. EUR/USD pair remained on positive foot for the 3rd consecutive day and posted gains on Monday. In the early trading session, risk sentiment started to dominate financial markets after Moderna announced that its COVID vaccine candidate showed 94.5% effectiveness in the latest trials. However, the single currency Euro found it hard to take advantage of the improved market mood since the European Central Bank made it clear that they will act in the upcoming December meeting.

While speaking at an event on Monday, the European Central Bank and policymaker Pablo Hernandez de Cos said that foreign exchange moves between the USD and the EUR had reached a concerning phase. De Cos further said that the monetary aid should be increased to avoid market destruction, given the worsening outlook for economic activity and inflation.

These comments from ECB policymaker, along with the hopes for further easing from ECB next month, exerted high pressure on the single currency that capped further gains in EUR/USD pair on Monday. However, the currency pair remained positive for the day, even though the European economy was hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic.

According to Johns Hopkins University, more than 54 million people had been infected by COVID-19 globally. In Europe, governments scrambled amid an alarming rise in numbers as France’s health authorities reported 9406 new cases on Monday. Germany postponed its decision on further lockdown measures until next week.

The German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that she wanted to impose further restrictions immediately, but she did not have a majority, so the decision was postponed until November 25. The tightening of lockdown measures was something nobody wanted, and that helped the single currency Euro and supported it. Meanwhile, Sweden placed a nationwide limit of eight people for all gatherings to slow down coronavirus spread. The limit will take effect from November 24 and will last for four weeks.

Despite all these tensions regarding the coronavirus pandemic, the single currency Euro struggled to hold near its best levels against its rival, the U.S. dollar, on Monday. The higher market sentiment also supported Euro amid the coronavirus vaccine news.

On the data front, the Empire State Manufacturing Index for November declined to 6.3 against the forecasted 13.8 and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added gains in EUR/USD pair on Monday. Other than macroeconomic data, the U.S. dollar was already weak in the market due to the rising number of coronavirus cases in the U.S. The weak U.S. dollar added further to the upward movement of the EUR/USD pair.

Daily   Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.1821      1.1877

1.1789      1.1901

1.1765      1.1932

Pivot point: 1.1845

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is trading sideways, holding mostly below the double top resistance level of 1.1860 level. Still, recently it has formed a Doji pattern followed by bullish candles, suggesting that the buyers are exhausted, and sellers may enter into the market soon. Therefore, we can expect the EUR/USD price to trade bearish until the 1.1838 level, the support level extended by an upward trendline on the hourly timeframe. Bullish crossover of 1.1865 level can also trigger buying until 1.1910.


GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.31999 after placing a high of 1.32422 and a low of 1.31654. The British Pound was high on Monday as the Brexit talks were resumed between the E.U. and the U.K.

There were increasing signs that little progress could be made in this week’s trade talks. The Brexit optimism with the resumed trade talks drove the British Pound higher on Monday that ultimately pushed the GBP/USD pair on the upside.

However, the pair failed to remain there for long as some investors started giving warning that a deal between the E.U. and the U.K. was unlikely this week in the wake of turmoil in the U.K. government. The two of Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s pro-Brexit advisors, Cummings and Cain, were ousted last week. Moreover, the prospects of failure to reach a deal were fading away with the hopes that if an agreement would not be reached, the deadline could stretch into the final weeks before the end of the transition period on December 31.

The negotiations are potentially stretching into December as the deadline of November 19 was close, and the differences in both sides were larger. Ireland’s foreign minister initially warned that a deal f this size is difficult to reach within a week or ten days, although the talks could continue for a further two weeks. The Brexit deal has left to solve 3 key sticking points, including the level playing field, governance, and fisheries. The control over fisheries has been highlighted as one of the main hindrances, as French President Emmanuel Macron has been reluctant to give Britain’s demand for full sovereignty over access to its waters amid concerns French fishers could lose out.

However, the GBP/USD pair posted gains as the UK PM Boris Johnson’s office said in a statement that they were confident that the U.K. would prosper if they fail to reach a trade deal with the E.U. Apart from Brexit, the GBP/USD pair’s gains were lost a bit after the UK PM Johnson self-isolated himself after having close contact with a coronavirus case despite without symptoms and being well. Johnson has already contracted coronavirus case back in April.

The number of coronavirus cases in the U.K. stayed above 20,000 per day despite the ongoing restrictive measures. Meanwhile, a medical adviser in the U.K. said that the government would have to consider strengthening the three-tier system of restrictions used to control coronavirus spread when the full lockdown in England ends. These tensions kept the GBP/USD pair under pressure on Monday and kept the gains limited.

Meanwhile, a U.S. drugmaker Moderna also announced that its vaccine was proven 94.5% effective in preventing the coronavirus that raised risk sentiment in the market and supported the risk perceived British Pound and added in the gains of GBP/USD pair on Monday. Furthermore, Britain reported that it had secured about five million doses of an experimental coronavirus vaccine developed by Moderna after reporting positive trial results. The health minister Matt Hancock from the U.K. said that the earliest doses are expected for delivery in Spring.

On the data front, the Rightmove HPI from Great Britain was released on Monday at 05:01 GMT, which came in as -0.5% in November against October’s 1.1%. From the U.S. side, the Empire State Manufacturing Index was declined to 6.3 against the forecasted 13.8 and weighed on the U.S. dollar and added strength to GBP/USD pair on Monday.

Daily   Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.3155      1.3236

1.3118      1.3280

1.3073      1.3317

Pivot point: 1.3199

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.3208 level, holding over 1.3189 level, which is extended by an upward trendline on a 2-hour timeframe. The Cable has recently crossed over the resistance level of the 1.3185 resistance level as the candle’s closing above this level may drive further upward movement in the market. The MACD and RSI support buying trend, and considering the trendline support and oversold indicators, it is worth giving a buy shot to GBP/USD pair. Let’s consider buying over 1.3160 level today. 


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 104.565 after placing a high of 105.135 and a low of 104.361. The pair followed its previous day’s bearish trend and dropped for 3rd consecutive day on Monday. The USD/JPY pair surged to its previous daily high level on Monday in early trading hours after the news from another drug maker came in about their vaccine’s efficiency. The Moderna reported that its vaccine’s last stage clinical trials were 94.5% effective. After this news, Moderna became the second company to announce its results from last stage clinical trials.

This news raised the risk sentiment in the market and weighed on the safe-haven Japanese Yen that kept the USD/JPY pair higher at the beginning of the Asian session. However, the gains started to fade as the market participant realized the difficulty of vaccine availability and its usage. The vaccine requires -70C temperature to be stored to be transported, that is not an easy task. Furthermore, there was also a lack of information regarding the time duration for the immunity induced through the vaccine. This can only be ascertained after the vaccine becomes available to the general public for usage.

These uncertainties raised the market’s safe-haven status and supported the Japanese Yen that ultimately weighed on the USD/JPY pair and forced it to lose some of its earlier daily gains. Meanwhile, on the U.S. front, the U.S. dollar was also weak on the day as the rising number of coronavirus cases raised fears for further restrictions and raised the hopes for further stimulus aid from the government.

The global cases of coronavirus reached 54 million, out of which 11 million were reported from the United States, according to the Johns Hopkins University. The rising number of coronavirus in the United States raised hopes that the Fed will announce further easing or a larger monetary aid to support the economy after the victory of Joe Biden in the U.S. presidential election this month.

Biden always favors a larger stimulus package to provide strength to the economy through the coronavirus crisis. With him becoming the U.S. 46th President, the chances for a massive stimulus bill for the U.S. economy have increased, which started to weigh on the U.S. dollar and ultimately dragged the USD/JPY pair’s prices on the downside.

On the data front, the Prelim GDP Price Index from Japan was released at 04:50 GMT that raised to 1.1% in the 3rd quarter against the expected 1.0% and supported the Japanese Yen that ultimately added further losses in the USD.JPY pair on Monday. The Prelim GDP for the 3rd Quarter from Japan also raised to 5.0% against the projected 4.4% and supported the Japanese Yen that dragged the USD.JPY pair on the downside. On the U.S. front, the Empire State Manufacturing Index in November dropped to 6.3 from the projected 13.8 and weighed on the U.S. dollar that dragged the USD/JPY pair further on the downside.

Daily   Technical Levels

Support Resistance

104.24      105.02

103.91      105.47

103.46      105.81

Pivot point: 104.69

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is with a bearish bias at the 104.400 level, falling from the 104.850 support area. On the lower side, the USD/JPY pair is likely to find support at the 104.141 level, and violation of this level can also extend further selling boas until 103.500. On the higher side, the USD/JPY safe-haven pair may find resistance at 104.845 and may help us capture a selling trades below this level as the MACD and RSI support the selling trend today. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, November 16 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – ECB President Lagarde Speaks!

The eyes will remain on the ECB Financial Stability Review, and President Lagarde Speaks on the news front. The ECB Financial Stability report is an assessment of conditions in the financial system and potential risks to financial stability – the evidence on strains and imbalances can provide insight into monetary policy’s future. Therefore, traders keep a closer eye on reports to predict policy decisions to cope with Covid19 driven economic slowdown.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair managed to extend its previous 2-day gaining streak and remained bullish around near above mid-1.1800 level, mainly due to the broad-based U.S. dollar selling bias, triggered by the risk-on market sentiment, which keeps the currency pair higher. Hence the market trading sentiment was being supported by the coronavirus vaccine-led enthusiasm. 

On the contrary, the buying interest around the currency pair was capped by the intensifying virus fugues in Europe, which raised doubts over the Eurozone economic recovery and became the key factor that has been capped further upside in the currency pair. At the moment, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.1849 and consolidating in the range between the 1.1834 – 1.1854.

Despite the doubts over the global economic recovery from intensifying coronavirus (COVID-19) woes in the U.S. and Europe, the market trading sentiment flashing green at the start of the week’s trading and remained supportive by the optimism over a potential vaccine for the highly infectious coronavirus disease. After cheering the U.S. pharma giant Pfizer’s recent declaration of its coronavirus vaccine’s positive results, the market traders expect the biotechnology company Moderna to follow suit this week. This, in turn, the futures tied to the S&P 500, Wall Street’s benchmark index, is currently trading 0.8% higher on the day and the major Asian indices are up at approximately 1% each. 

At the USD front, the broad-based U.S. dollar failed to gain any positive traction on the day as doubts persist over the global economic recovery from COVID-19. Besides this, the risk-on market sentiment, backed by the optimism over a potential vaccine for the highly contagious coronavirus disease, also played its major role in weakening the safe-haven U.S. dollar. However, the U.S. dollar losses became the key factor that kept the currency pair’s higher. Meantime, the U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a bucket of other currencies dropped by 0.14% to 92.588 by 10:05 PM ET (2:05 AM GMT).

On the contrary, the bullish bias around the EUR/USD currency pair was capped by the on-going doubts over the Eurozone economic recovery amid intensifying coronavirus (COVID-19) worries in the U.S. and Europe. The rising coronavirus (COVID-19) worries urged some European countries, such as the U.K. and France, to imposing restrictive measures such as lockdowns and curfews. As in result, the vehicle traffic in both Europe and the U.S. slowing sharply. As per the latest report, there were over 54 million cases across the globe and over 1.3 million deaths as of November 16.

Looking ahead, the market traders will keep their eyes on updates surrounding the U.S. stimulus package. In the meantime, the risk catalyst like geopolitics and the virus woes, not to forget the Brexit, could not lose their importance. Apart from this, the RBA Gov Lowe Speaks and Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes will also be key to watch.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.1738      1.1827

1.1697      1.1875

1.1648      1.1917

Pivot point: 1.1786

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD traded bullish at 1.1850 level, but recently it has formed a Doji pattern followed by bullish candles, suggesting that the buyers are exhausted, and sellers may enter the market soon. Therefore, we can expect the EUR/USD price to trade bearish until the 1.1838 level, the support level extended by an upward trendline on the hourly timeframe. Bullish crossover of 1.1856 level can also trigger buying until 1.1880.


GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair managed to extend its overnight winning streak and refreshed 4-day high around above 1.3200 level as the currency pair buyers get a warm welcome after returning from the weekend. However, the bullish tone around the currency pair could be attributed to the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness. The U.S. dollar was being pressured by the market risk-on sentiment, undermining the safe-haven U.S. dollar and contributing to the currency pair gains. 

Whereby, the market trading sentiment has remained supportive by the renewed optimism over a possible vaccine for the highly infectious coronavirus disease, which lends some support to the higher-yielding Pound and contributes to the currency pair gains. On the contrary, the Brexit woes and the virus concerns could stop the currency pair’s on-going recovery moves. At this particular time, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3234 and consolidating in the range between 1.3174 – 1.3235.

Despite the lingering doubts about global economic recovery and the intensifying tension between the world’s two biggest economies, the market players continue to cheering the optimism over a possible vaccine for the highly infectious coronavirus disease. In the meantime, the release of an above-forecast China factory data, which raised hopes of China’s economic growth, has also played its major role in underpinning the market trading sentiment. However, the risk-on mood slightly overshadowed the concerns over virus cases and restrictions in the U.S. 

On the data front, the Industrial production in China’s economy surged 6.9% year-on-year for the 2nd-straight month in October, surpassing the expected gain of 6.5%. Moreover, the Fixed Asset Investment grew 1.8% year-on-year in October against 1.6% expected and 0.8% previous. 

As a result, the higher-yielding British Pound took support from the risk-rally by ignoring the Brexit issue’s latest negative developments. As per the latest report, the discussions over a possible trade deal between the U.K. and E.U. are expected to extend beyond this week.

At the USD front, the broad-based U.S. dollar failed to stop its previous losses and remain depressed on the day, mainly due to the risk-on market sentiment. Moreover, the losses in the U.S. dollar could also be attributed to the on-going doubts over the global economic recovery in the wake of intensifying coronavirus (COVID-19) worries in the U.S., which tend to undermine the American currency. However, the losses in the U.S. dollar kept the currency pair higher. Meantime, the U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a bucket of other currencies dropped by 0.14% to 92.588 by 10:05 PM ET (2:05 AM GMT).

 

On the negative side, the latest negative developments surrounding the Brexit issue and the rising number of coronavirus in the U.K. could be considered the leading factor that kept the lid on a y additional gains in the currency pair. As per the latest report, Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney clearly warned that we would not get a deal if the U.K. imposes Internal Market Bill. In the meantime, the U.K. Environment Secretary George Eustice stated that both sides’ agreement remains intact, keeping the hopes alive as differences continue to persist over fisheries and state aid.

Looking ahead, the market traders will keep their eyes on updates surrounding the U.S. stimulus package. In the meantime, the risk catalyst like geopolitics and the virus woes, not to forget the Brexit, could not lose their importance. Apart from this, the RBA Gov Lowe Speaks and Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes will also be key to watch.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3170      1.3291

1.3119      1.3361

1.3050      1.3412

Pivot point; 1.3240

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.3208 level, holding over 1.3189 level, which is extended by an upward trendline on a 2-hour timeframe. The Cable has recently crossed over the resistance level of the 1.3185 resistance level as the candle’s closing above this level may drive further upward movement in the market. The MACD and RSI support buying trend, and considering the trendline support and oversold indicators, it is worth giving a buy shot to GBP/USD pair. Let’s consider buying over 1.3160 level today. 


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 105.121 after placing a high of 105.476 and a low of 105.068. The pair USD/JPY reversed its direction and started falling on Thursday amid the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness. The decreased risk sentiment due to the escalated second wave of the coronavirus in the United States weighed on the USD/JPY pair on Thursday. The investors started to fear that governments might respond by imposing the lockdown restrictions that will slow down the economic recovery.

The United States reported about 140,453 cases on a single day on Wednesday, and it was the ninth straight day of above 100,000 cases. According to Johns Hopkins University, about 10.4 million Americans have been infected by the coronavirus so far, and nearly 242,000 have died from it. These concerns raised the safe-haven appeal and supported the Japanese Yen that ultimately weighed on the USD/JPY.

On the data front, at 04:50 GMT, the Core Machinery Orders from Japan for September came in as -4.4% against the expected -1.1% and weighed on the Japanese Yen. The Purchasing Price Index (PPI) from Japan remained flat with the expectations of -2.1% for the year. At 09:30 GMT, the Tertiary Industry Activity for September raised to 1.8% against the anticipated 1.3% and supported the Japanese Yen and weighed on the USD/JPY pair.

The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell cautioned that the U.S. economy would further need support from Congress and the central bank even if a coronavirus vaccine becomes available by the end of the year. He said that despite the vaccine’s availability, there still will be millions of people left who have lost their job to the pandemic, and they will still struggle to find work as the economy will attempt to recover from the economic downturn.

He added that in the Federal Reserve’s eyes, the terrible rise in COVID-19 cases across the country was the “main risk” for the U.S. economy. He added that the coronavirus’s third wave had forced several states to re-impose lockdown restrictions and caused people to lose confidence. He stressed that the economy would not fully recover until people are confident that it was safe to resume activities involving the crowd. These comments from Powell also weighed on the U.S. dollar and added in the losses of the USD/JPY pair on Thursday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

103.82       106.29

102.27       107.21

101.35       108.75

Pivot point: 104.74

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is with a bearish bias at the 104.400 level, falling from the 104.850 support area. On the lower side, the USD/JPY pair is likely to find support at the 104.141 level, and violation of this level can also extend further selling boas until 103.500. On the higher side, the USD/JPY safe-haven pair may find resistance at 104.845 and may help us capture a selling trades below this level as the MACD and RSI are supporting the selling trend today. Good luck! 

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Nov 16 – Bitcoin to be Censored? Blockseer Mining Pool Enters the Game

The cryptocurrency sector has spent the weekend pretty flat as Bitcoin was experiencing a period of low volatility. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap is currently trading for $16,272, representing an increase of 1.37% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum lost 1.19% on the day, while XRP lost 0.69%.

 Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

SushiSwap gained 13.81% in the past 24 hours, making it the most prominent daily gainer out of the top100 cryptos ranked by market capitalization yet again today. It is closely followed by THORChain’s gain of 9.54% and Curve DAO Token’s 4.80% gain. On the other hand, ABBC Coin lost 45.16%, making it the most prominent daily loser. The Midas Touch Gold lost 8.96% while Ampleforth lost 8.88%, making them the 2nd and 3rd most prominent daily losers.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s market dominance has decreased slightly over the weekend, with its value is currently staying at 65%. This value represents a 0.3% difference to the downside compared to the value it had on Friday.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The crypto sector capitalization has gone up very slightly over the course of the weekend. Its current value is $463.37 billion, representing an $0.51 billion increase compared to our previous report.

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What happened in the past 24 hours?

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Blockseer, a US-based DMG Blockchain Solutions’ subsidiary, has recently announced a private beta version of a brand new Bitcoin mining pool. This particular mining pool is, however, quite unique and different. The Blockseer Mining Pool will, unlike any other mining pool, censor transactions from wallets that are blacklisted. They also plan on mandating the miners to undergo KYC procedure, according to marketing materials.

Any new blocks generated by the Blockseer pool will include only filtered transactions, and the filters will be based on the Walletscore’s data.

While some agree that this way of transacting might be the future, the vast majority of public figures say that this is pure censorship and that it goes against the basic principles of Bitcoin as a free cryptocurrency, where a transaction is a transaction, no matter where it comes from.

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Technical analysis

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Bitcoin

The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has spent the weekend experiencing very low volatility while fighting an incredibly important battle. Bitcoin was fighting to stay above the $16,000 mark after the move to the upside has died down at $16,500 on Nov 13, thus triggering a pullback.

An interesting outlook on Bitcoin is that the now won fight for $16,000 has created a higher low, and Bitcoin might push even higher in the following days. Traders should pay attention to volume increases around the $16,400-$16,500 mark.

BTC/USD 4-hour Chart

Bitcoin’s technicals are tilted slightly to the buy-side on the 4-hour, daily and weekly time-frames. However, all of these time-frames show signs of neutrality. On the other hand, its monthly overview is completely bullish.

BTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Price is above its 50-period EMA and at its 21-period EMA
  • Price is near its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (58.99)
  • Volume is slightly above average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $16,500                                 1: $16,000

2: $16,700                                 2: $15,480

3: $17,000                                  3: $14,640

Ethereum

Ethereum has, just like Bitcoin, spent the weekend fighting to stay above its support level. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, however, did not manage to win its fight. Ether has triggered a pullback after bouncing from the $478 level, which caused its price to first hover around the yellow top ascending channel line until it finally broke it to the downside. The move was stopped at $440, and Ethereum has since recovered and is currently trading just below the yellow line.

Our call on Friday for Ethereum dropping below the line was correct, as ETH did exactly as expected. However, the combination of factors at the moment make Ethereum a not-so-good trade, and traders should perhaps look at other options before choosing to trade it.

ETH/USD 4-hour Chart

Ethereum’s technicals are extremely bullish on its weekly and monthly time-frames and very bullish (but not as much as the aforementioned time-frames) on its daily overview. Its 4-hour overview, however, is tilted heavily towards the sell-side.

ETH/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical Factors (4-hour Chart):
  • The price is slightly above its 50-period and slightly below its 21-period EMA
  • Price is slightly below its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (47.32)
  • Volume is average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $470                                     1: $451

2: $490                                     2: $445 

3: $500                                      3: $420

Ripple

The fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap had an incredible day on Friday, as its price pushed above 2 of its major resistance levels. XRP has managed to, in a span of around 12 hours, push past the $0.26 and $0.266 levels and took the weekend to consolidate above them and create a strong foundation. The $0.266 level was tested as support twice already, successfully both times.

Traders can finally look at XRP as a crypto that moves somewhere else than sideways, and look for opportunities in places other than the range between $0.2454 and $0.26.

XRP/USD 4-hour Chart

XRP’s technicals are slightly tilted towards the buy-side on all time-frames, with more or less neutrality signs. The important change from the last report (and many reports before) is XRP’s monthly overview, which has finally turned bullish.

XRP/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • The price is above its 50-period EMA and slightly above at its 21-period EMA
  • Price is between its middle and top Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (59.63)
  • Volume is average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $0.27                                     1: $0.266

2: $0.2855                                 2: $0.26

3: $0.31                                    3: $0.2454

 

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

BTC/USD Weekly Chart Overview + Possible Outcomes

In this weekly BTC/USD analysis, we will be taking a brief look at the most recent events, the current chart technical formations, as well as the possible BTC price outcomes.

Overview

Bitcoin has spent the week building an ascending channel that took its price from the $14,640 level all the way to $16,500. However, the new levels are mostly unexplored (apart from the late 2017 mini-bubble), and people that already invested in Bitcoin are either holding or taking profits, while new investors are wary of entering due to the price reaching this high. This left Bitcoin with a lot of people holding, a minority taking profit, and even a smaller minority wanting to buy it at $16,500 at the moment, which triggered a pullback. This doesn’t mean that $16,500 is an overestimate of Bitcoin’s worth, but rather that the economic uncertainty around the new US presidency, an unstable stock market as well as regulatory bodies honing in on crypto are all factors in the current minor pullback.

Our previous weekly analysis has predicted the price increase to $16,500 as well as the pullback. This doesn’t mean that the bull season has ended or that bears have taken over for good, but rather that BTC entered a healthy correction phase before establishing a new price target.

Technical factors



Bitcoin has continued moving along the ascending channel started on Nov 7 and gaining in value up until the $16,500 resistance level that we called out. This level has triggered a pullback as BTC could not pass the zone of resistance. While the pullback was mostly sideways and slow, a confirmation of a real pullback happening occurred on Nov 14, when Bitcoin dropped out of the ascending channel as well as below the $16,000 psychological level.

While Bitcoin’s sentiment is extremely bullish overall, its short-term overview points to a pullback that will most likely end at the zone of support near the $15,480 level.

The hash ribbons indicator is still showing miner capitulation (ever since Oct 29), sending out a major buy signal.

Likely Outcomes

Bitcoin has one main scenario that is most likely to play out, which is its price continuing down towards the $15,480 area where it will encounter strong support, which will most likely stop it from going further down. If this happens and Bitcoin does bounce off of the $15,480 area, we may expect another push towards the recently-made highs. In this case, traders should have a clear path towards $16,500 again, and they should pay attention to BTC, possibly making a double top at its most recent high rather than surpassing the level.

A move that will end up below $15,480 is highly unlikely, simply due to the overall sentiment currently surrounding Bitcoin. However, as unlikely as it is, anything is possible, and Bitcoin might fall below the support level. In that case, traders can expect a sharp price decrease and a possible push towards the $14,640.

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Nov 13 – Bitcoin Above $16,000: What’s Next?

The cryptocurrency sector has spent the day equally divided between cryptos that ended up in the red and the green. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap pushed past its $16,000 mark and is currently trading for $16,291, representing an increase of 3.26% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum lost 0.15% on the day, while XRP gained 0.45%.

 Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

Blockstack gained 33.78% in the past 24 hours, making it the most prominent daily gainer out of the top100 cryptos ranked by market capitalization yet again today. It is closely followed by Dash’s gain of 13.33% and Decred’s 8.98% gain. On the other hand, ABBC Coin lost 12.08%, making it the most prominent daily loser. Ampleforth lost 11.75% while Aragon lost 10.85%, making them the 2nd and 3rd most prominent daily losers.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s market dominance has increased since we last reported, with its value is currently staying at 65.3%. This value represents a 0.8% difference to the upside compared to the value it had yesterday.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The crypto sector capitalization has gone up over the course of the day. Its current value is $462.86 billion, representing an $8.70 billion increase compared to our previous report.

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What happened in the past 24 hours?

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Technical analysis

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Bitcoin

The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has tested the $16,000 mark for a long time, failing a couple of times as profit-taking chipped away too much bull power. However, BTC has officially broken the $16,000 resistance today, turning it into support. The move that pushed it past this mark has ended right at the $16,500 resistance, which held up quite well. Many say the reason for the move past $16,000 is that banks and firms are moving their funds into BTC due to uncertainties in the traditional markets (major indexes traded slightly in the red yesterday). An engulfing candle that followed the last green candle of the move, as well as RSI bouncing off of the overbought area, show that a correction is the most likely option at the moment.

Slow and steady increases in volume accompanied each of Bitcoin’s moves. Traders can use this info to enter and exit trades safely.

BTC/USD 4-hour Chart

Bitcoin’s technicals are bullish overall but are split between the 4-hour and weekly time-frames, which are more tilted towards the neutral position, and daily and monthly time-frames, which are completely bullish.

BTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Price is well above its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
  • Price is near its top Bollinger band
  • RSI is near the overbought territory (64.03)
  • Volume is slightly above average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $16,500                                 1: $16,000

2: $16,700                                 2: $15,480

3: $17,000                                  3: $14,640

Ethereum

Ethereum has continued its upward path, supported by its ascending channel top line. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap managed to hold itself above this level, effectively slowly increasing in price due to the slope of the support line. However, it is yet to be seen if ETH can stay above this level for long, and a potential drop below the line is quite possible.

Ethereum traders should look for ETH dropping below the top line of the ascending channel and trade off of that.

ETH/USD 4-hour Chart

Ethereum’s technicals are bullish on all time-frames, with its 4-hour time-frame being more tilted towards the neutral position and longer time-frames being completely bullish.

ETH/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical Factors (4-hour Chart):
  • The price is above its 50-period and slightly above its 21-period EMA
  • Price is slightly above its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (53.64)
  • Volume is average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $470                                     1: $451

2: $490                                     2: $445 

3: $500                                      3: $420

Ripple

The fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap has had a slow day of sideways action within the range it is in for almost a week. XRP has moved slightly towards the middle of the range after it failed to break the $0.26 resistance level, entering a period of low volatility.

Traders shouldn’t really be interested in XRP at the moment due to its low volatility. However, those that want to trade XRP can enter trades with targets and stop-losses that correspond to the current support/resistance levels.

XRP/USD 4-hour Chart

XRP’s technicals on the 4-hour and daily time-frame have changed its stance from bullish/neutral to straight bullish, while its weekly time-frame is still almost completely neutral. Its monthly overview shows strong bearish sentiment.

XRP/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • The price is above its 50-period EMA and at its 21-period EMA
  • Price is at its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (50.34)
  • Volume is slightly below average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $0.26                                     1: $0.2454

2: $0.266                                   2: $0.235

3: $0.27                                    3: $0.227

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, November 13 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – CPI, Employment in Focus! 

The eyes will remain on the U.S. Core PPI m/m and the Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment from the United States on the news side. Both of the events are expected to drive some movement in the U.S. dollar and related currency pairs. During the European session, the French Final CPI m/m, Flash Employment Change q/q, and Flash GDP q/q will remain in highlights as these are coming from European counties; therefore, we can expect support to the Euro pairs.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.18054 after placing a high of 1.18230 and a low of 1.17584. The currency pair EUR/USD reversed its Wednesday’s movement and raised on Thursday despite coronavirus worsened Europe’s situation. Italy was now expecting to enter a nationwide lockdown due to the increased number of coronavirus cases and curb the virus’s spread that should have caused the EUR/USD pair to continue movement in the downward direction. Still, the pair surged on the back of the weak U.S. dollar.

The U.S. dollar has suffered from risk-on markets sentiment, with investors becoming more optimistic after Pfizer’s 90% effective coronavirus vaccine. The greenback was also weak due to the declining CPI data from the U.S. At 12:00 GMT, the German Final CPI for October came in line with the expectations of 0.1%. At 15:00 GMT, the Industrial Production in September from Eurozone declined to -0.4% against the forecasted 0.6% and weighed on Euro and capped further gains in EUR/USD pair.

At 18:30 GMT, the Consumer Price Index for October fell to 0.0% against the projected 0.1% and weighed on the U.S. dollar and supported the EUR/USD pair’s upward direction. The Core CPI for October also declined to 0.0% from the projected 0.2% and weighed on the U.S. dollar and added further in gains of EUR/USD pair. However, the Unemployment Claims from last week fell to 709K against the projected 730K and supported the U.S. dollar and capped further gains in currency pair EUR/USD pair.

Moreover, the U.S. political uncertainties also continued weighing on the U.S. dollar after the victory of Joe Biden and becoming 46th U.S. President. Donald Trump has failed to concede Biden’s victory and has left the markets uncertain about what could happen next as Trump attempts to challenge the vote. 

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar was also under pressure because of the rising number of coronavirus infections on Wednesday. The cases increased to 142,000 new cases in a single day, and the hospitalization rate also increased and reached 65,000, the highest during the pandemic. These virus conditions in the U.S. also weighed on the U.S. dollar and supported the upward movement of the EUR/USD pair.

On the other hand, the ECB President Christine Lagarde said that she believes that the region’s monetary authority will move to launch a digital version of the Euro in the next two to four years. Previously, ECB officials disclosed that they were researching a central bank digital currency.

On the virus front, the ECB President, Christine Lagarde, said that the coronavirus vaccine had reduced the uncertainty and complete lockdown was not the best way to deal with the second wave. These comments from Lagarde also supported the upward movement of the EUR/USD pair on Thursday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.1738      1.1827

1.1697      1.1875

1.1648      1.1917

Pivot point: 1.1786

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD continues to trade sideways at the 1.1804 area, facing immediate support at the 1.1749 level along with resistance at the 1.1835 level. On the further higher side, the violation of the 1.1835 level can extend the buying trend until 1.1907. On the lower side, the support level prevails at 1.1749 and 1.1680 level. The MACD and EMA are also neutral; therefore, we may see selling below the 1.1835 and bullish above the same level today.


GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.31222 after a high of 1.32281 and a low of 1.31062. The pair GBP/USD continued following its previous day movement and extended its losses on Thursday. On Thursday, the Bank of England Governor said that he hoped a goodwill spirit would prevail between Britain and the European Union countries to smooth over unavoidable trade disruptions after the end of the Brexit transition period on Jan-1st.

Bailey also told a panel discussion with the U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and European Central bank President Christine Lagarde that he felt very uncomfortable at the huge amount of economic uncertainty created by a coronavirus. On Thursday, Bailey said that he was encouraged by the latest coronavirus vaccine developments, which reduce economic uncertainty.

He also said that the trade talks were continuing between Britain and the European Union, but he could not judge the outcome. He said that he hoped that if there will be a trade agreement, there will be a goodwill spirit. However, he also told the panel Britain’sain’s financial sector was ready for the end of transition periods irrespective of a deal and was better prepared than the rest of the economic sectors. Bailey’s comments raised concerns in the market sentiment and kept the British Pound under pressure that left the GBP/USD pair on the downside.

On the data front, at 05:01 GMT, the RICS House Price Balance from the U.K. for October raised to 68% from the forecasted 54% and supported GBP. At 12:00 GMT, the Prelim GDP for the 3rd Quarter declined to 15.5% against the expected 15.8% and weighed on British Pound and added in the losses of GBP/USD pair. For September, the U.K.’s Construction Output raised to 2.9% against the forecasted 2.1% and supported British Pound. The GDP for September from the U.K. also declined to 1.1% against the estimated 1.5% and weighed on British Pound and further supported the GBP/USD pair’s losses.

The Goods Trade Balance came in as expected -9.3B. The Index of Services for the Quarter also declined to 14.2% from the forecasted 14.6% and weighed on British Pound and added losses in currency pair. The Industrial Production for September again fell to 0.5% from the estimated 0.9% and weighed on GBP. The Manufacturing Production in September from the U.K. dropped to 0.2% against the projected 0.7% and weighed on GBP. The Prelim Business Investment dropped to 8.8% in September from the projected 14.4% and weighed on local currency Sterling and further pushed the pair on the downside.

From the U.S. side, at 18:30 GMT, the Consumer Price Index for October was dropped to 0.0% against the expected 0.1% and weighed on the U.S. dollar and capped further losses in GBP/USD pair. The Core CPI for October also dropped to 0.0% from the expected 0.2% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. However, the Unemployment Claims from last week fell to 709K against the estimated 730K and supported the U.S. dollar and added losses in GBP/USD pair on Thursday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3170      1.3291

1.3119      1.3361

1.3050      1.3412

Pivot point; 1.3240

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.3116 level, holding over 1.3110 level, which is extended by an upward trendline on a 2-hour timeframe. The Cable has recently completed 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, and now it’s holding above the double bottom support level of 1.3110 level. On the higher side, the pair may surge until the resistance level of 1.3190 level. The MACD and RSI support selling trend, but considering the trendline support and oversold indicators, it is worth giving a buy shot to GBP/USD pair. Let’s consider buying over 1.3110 level today. 


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 105.121 after placing a high of 105.476 and a low of 105.068. The pair USD/JPY reversed its direction and started falling on Thursday amid the broad-based US dollar weakness. The decreased risk sentiment due to the escalated second wave of the coronavirus in the United States weighed on the USD/JPY pair on Thursday. The investors started to fear that governments might respond by imposing the lockdown restrictions that will slow down the economic recovery.

The United States reported about 140,453 cases on a single day on Wednesday, and it was the ninth straight day of above 100,000 cases. According to Johns Hopkins University, about 10.4 million Americans have been infected by the coronavirus so far, and nearly 242,000 have died from it. These concerns raised the safe-haven appeal and supported the Japanese Yen that ultimately weighed on the USD/JPY pair on Thursday.

On the data front, at 04:50 GMT, the Core Machinery Orders from Japan for September came in as -4.4% against the expected -1.1% and weighed on the Japanese Yen. The Purchasing Price Index (PPI) from Japan remained flat with the expectations of -2.1% for the year. At 09:30 GMT, the Tertiary Industry Activity for September raised to 1.8% against the anticipated 1.3% and supported the Japanese Yen and weighed on the USD/JPY pair.

From the US side, at 18:30 GMT, the Consumer Price Index for October was dropped to 0.0% against the anticipated 0.1% and weighed on the US dollar and dragged the pair USD/JPY on the downside. The Core CPI for October also dropped to 0.0% from the anticipated 0.2% and weighed on the US dollar and added further in the USD/JPY pair’s losses. However, the Unemployment Claims from last week were declined to 709K against the anticipated 730K and supported the US dollar that capped further losses in the USD/JPY pair.

Meanwhile, on Thursday, the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell cautioned that the US economy would further need support from Congress and the central bank even if a coronavirus vaccine becomes available by the end of the year. He said that despite the vaccine’s availability, there still will be millions of people left who have lost their job to the pandemic, and they will still struggle to find work as the economy will attempt to recover from the economic downturn.

He added that in the Federal Reserve’s eyes, the terrible rise in COVID-19 cases across the country was the “main risk” for the US economy. He added that the coronavirus’s third wave had forced several states to re-impose lockdown restrictions and caused people to lose confidence. He stressed that the economy would not fully recover until people are confident that it was safe to resume activities involving the crowd. These comments from Powell also weighed on the US dollar and added in the losses of the USD/JPY pair on Thursday.


Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

103.82      106.29

102.27      107.21

101.35      108.75

Pivot point: 104.74

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading sideways between 105.650 – 104.900 level, and violation of this level can extend the selling trend until the next support level of 104.430 mark. Simultaneously, the bullish breakout of the 105.650 level may open further room for buying until the 106.142 level. Overall, the eyes will remain at 104.835 level to trade bearish below this level until 104.435 and 104.175 level today. Good luck!