Tag: Daily Brief

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily November 07– Major Trade Setups – Brace for BOE Rate Decision! 

On Thursday, the dollar’s determined and blending strength will last well into next year, and even if an incomplete U.S.-China trade agreement is signed, it will at most hit the

On Thursday, the dollar’s determined and blending strength will last well into next year, and even if an incomplete U.S.-China trade agreement is signed, it will at most hit the

On Thursday, the dollar’s determined and blending strength will last well into next year, and even if an incomplete U.S.-China trade agreement is signed, it will at most hit the currency by 1-2% in the instant aftermath. 

Today, the focus of traders stays on the series of services PMI figures from the Eurozone. 

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair flashing red and dropped for 3-consecutive days, this bearish trend considered as the biggest losing streak since early September. As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair closed at 0.10% bearish during the Wednesday, as well as the pair was dropped by 0.33% and 0.48% during the Monday and Tuesday. The 3-day declining streak is the highest early September. 

At the time of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.1059, showing a 0.06% decline on the day. On the technical side, the technical outlook found on the bearish track with Wednesday close below 1.1073, which confirmed a double top bearish breakdown on the daily chart.

The possibility of Industrial production missing forecasts is high. That would support the bearish technical trend, probably increase the losses in the EUR. It should be noted that the upbeat expectation will likely a good sign of EUR currency. However, the strong close above 1.1073 is much needed to cancel the bearish trend.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.1018

S2 1.1047

S1 1.1056

Pivot Point 1.1075

R1 1.1084

R2 1.1103

R3 1.1131

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is trading with a bearish bias since it violated the bullish trendline support around 1.1125 area. On the 4 hour timeframe, the pair has formed strong bearish channels, which are signaling chances of further selling in the market. 

At the moment, the EUR/USD is focusing on a crucial trading level of 1.1060 level, which is likely to determine the further direction of the pair. Below this level, the EUR/USD may gain support at 1.1040 and 1.1010 level today. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair hit the bearish track and hit the weekly low as the cautious sentiment of the GBP traders due to Super Thursday. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair currently trading at 1.2837, as well as the greenback is increasing across the board and uncertainty regarding the trade deal between Sino-US also leaving an impact on the EUR/USD currency pair.

At the Sino-US trade front, the condition surrounding the round-1 trade deal between the United States and China seems doubtful recently. Although, thee U.S. Dollar supported from the move as new thinkings of the Federal Reserves pause in the rate cut cycle.

On the other hand, the investors will strictly be observed to the speech of UK Chancellor Sajid Javid and second-tier data from the U.S., coupled with comments by the President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Robert Kaplan which is scheduled to deliver later. 

Today, the whole focus stays on the Bank of England monetary policy report, where the BOE is widely supposed to keep the interest rate on the clutch at 0.75% today.  

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2758

S2 1.2812

S1 1.2832

Pivot Point 1.2865

R1 1.2886

R2 1.2918

R3 1.2971

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD hasn’t improved enough as it extends to trade sideways ahead of the Bank of England policy decision. The MACD and RSI have crossed below 0 and 50, respectively, suggesting the chances of a bearish trend in the GBP/USD. But the thing is, investors are staying out of the market ahead of BOE rate. On the downside, the GBP/USD may see next support around 1.2786, and the violation of this level can extend sell-off until 1.2690. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair are representing losses by 24-pips and currently trading at 108.74. As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair is on the bearish attitude due to the moderate declines in the U.S. index futures. Notably, the futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are reporting 0.12% and 0.17% losses; respectively, the uncertainty increased again between the United States and China trade deal.

While the United States ten-year treasury yields stop previous drops around 1.815% whereas the NIKKEI opens a tad lower after weak signals.

Whereas, the pairs traders cautious after the Tankan number & trade news. Tankan manufacturing poll, which tracks the steps of Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) essential Tankan quarterly survey, recently fell to the lowest since March 2013 during October.

At the Sino-US trade front, the condition surrounding the round-1 trade deal between the United States and China seems doubtful recently.

Looking ahead, the traders will keep their focus on the United States, and China round-1 phase, and Brexit details for getting fresh hints and clues as well as the trader will carefully observe the 2nd-tier data on the economic calendar. The greenback hit a bullish trend in the wake of the ISM beat. 

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 108.34

S2 108.66

S1 108.82

Pivot Point 108.98

R1 109.14

R2 109.3

R3 109.62

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On the technical side, the USD/JPY currency pair had shown the wrong direction to the buyers of the market during the last 48 hours as you know the pair dropped in 48 hours against the buyer’s expectations. The pair closed above the 200-day M.A. on Tuesday to fall back below the long-term M.A. in the overnight trade. Consider staying bullish above 

108.700 today.

All the best!

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, November 06– Major Trade Setups – European Data In Focus! 

On Wednesday, the U.S. dollar index is mostly unchanged, trading at 97.936 in early Asian trade, following a surge of 0.37% the previous day. The headlines came that the United

On Wednesday, the U.S. dollar index is mostly unchanged, trading at 97.936 in early Asian trade, following a surge of 0.37% the previous day. The headlines came that the United

On Wednesday, the U.S. dollar index is mostly unchanged, trading at 97.936 in early Asian trade, following a surge of 0.37% the previous day. The headlines came that the United States and China are still on the doubtfull track and so far from reaching even a phase one deal, whereas increasing uncertainty in the trade is China’s intact support for Hong Kong’s hard stand against protestors.

Today, the focus of traders stays on the series of services PMI figures from the Eurozone. 

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair found on the bearish track for the last two days. As of writing, the currency pair is currently trading at 1.1073; the neckline supports double top pattern on the daily chart.

The German data is scheduled to release at 06:00 GMT and expected to show factory orders, a vital impulse for Europe’s largest economy, which dropped for the 3rd consecutive month during September.

Moreover, IHS Markit’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for Germany dropped to 41.7 during September to register the weakest figures since 2009 and 8-straight monthly drop in output. The PMI was at 43.5 in August. A number below 50 indicates contraction.

As we all well aware, the EUR/USD currency pair is already trading on the slippery ground and having charted a bearish trend over the last two days. Therefore, the unexpected weaker factory orders data could allow a possible break below 1.1073.

On the positive note, the EUR currency will likely take buying if the critical data will release better than expected. However, the technical outlook would become bullish above 1.1180.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.0939

S2 1.1016

S1 1.1045

Pivot Point 1.1093

R1 1.1122

R2 1.1169

R3 1.1246

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The direct currency pair EUR/USD exhibited a dramatic selling from 1.1120 to 1.1065 area. Today this level is likely to extend support to the EUR/USD pair. New candles are Doji, which are followed by a strong bearish candle. This suggests that sellers are exhausted, and we may see buying behavior in the market. Consider taking buying positions above 1.1065 today.  

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair hit the bearish track despite increasing hopes for the Tory leader to win the snap election. Notably, probably the reason behind the bearish trend of cable pair is uncertainty surrounding the United States, and China trade deal keeps the U.S. Dollar strength intact. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair currently trading at 1.2880 on the day.

The headlines came that the United States and China are still on the doubtfull track and so far from reaching even a phase one deal, whereas increasing uncertainty in the trade is China’s intact support for Hong Kong’s hard stand against protestors.

As of data, the preliminary figures of the United States Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labour Coast for the 3rd quarter will be under the focus after the JOLTS Job Openings Challenged the U.S. employment optimism on Tuesday.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.277

S2 1.2828

S1 1.2856

Pivot Point 1.2887

R1 1.2915

R2 1.2946

R3 1.3004

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD hasn’t changed much so far as it continues to trade bullish due to the weaker U.S. dollar. The Cable has outraged the previous resistance level of 1.2930. Now the pair is likely to face fresh resistance around 1.3050 area. Consider staying bullish above 1.2941 today.  

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY Currency Pair currently trading at 109.04; the pairs hit the low of 109.00 despite the weak macro data. During the Tokyo session, the USD/JPY currency pair was trading near the 109.13 even after the BOJ minutes keeping easy money policy on the cards.

The final Jibun Bank Japan Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is seen at 49.7 in October from 52.8 in September on a seasonally-adjusted basis. The below-50 figures are the first since September 2016.

Despite the weak data approved by the Bank of Japan easing policy, the pair found at 109.20 and has slipped back to near 109.00, mainly due to the drop in the S&P 500 futures. As of writing, the index futures are representing the 0.15% decline.

Moreover, the USD/JPY currency pair may continue taking hints from the movement in the equities and Treasury yields. As of now, the ten-year yield is trading at 1.84%, representing two-basis-points declines from the session high of 1.86%.

Looking forward, traders will keep their eyes on Japan’s Jibun Bank Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for October. In contrast, few other Federal Reserve policymakers will carefully observe for additional direction during the latter part of the day. Market estimates suggest a soft PMI figure of 50.3 against 52.8 prior.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 108.05

S2 108.55

S1 108.85

Pivot Point 109.05

R1 109.35

R2 109.55

R3 110.05

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY traded bullish, placing a high around 109.200 level. As per the recent technical analysis of the pair, the USD/JPY is facing resistance around 109.20. Below this level, we can expect a continuation of the selling trend until 108.900 and 108.650.

Besides, the MACD and Stochastics are holding in the overbought range, suggesting chances of a bearish trend in the USD/JPY. Consider taking sell positions below 109 today as the immediate target stays at 108.650. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, November 05– Major Trade Setups – Services PMI Figures In Highlights! 

During the Asian session, the economic event well-occupied as it included October Service sector PMI figures coming out from China and Retail Sales Monitor figures from the United Kingdom. 

On

During the Asian session, the economic event well-occupied as it included October Service sector PMI figures coming out from China and Retail Sales Monitor figures from the United Kingdom. 

On

During the Asian session, the economic event well-occupied as it included October Service sector PMI figures coming out from China and Retail Sales Monitor figures from the United Kingdom. 

On the flip side, the Reserve Bank of Australia also released its November interest rate verdict and rate statement. The RBA decided to keep the policy unchanged today.  

On the geopolitical uncertainty aspect, chatter on trade contributed backing for riskier investments in the first section of the day. The focus today stays on the series of economic events from the U.S. and New Zealand. 

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

Economic Calendar by TradingView

   

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair still flashing red for the 3rd consecutive day and dropped to 1.2880 on the day. Apart from trade positive headlines, recent uncertainty is taking place, surrounding the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s victory in the snap election, which is scheduled to happen in December.

Besides that, not only the trade-positive comments from the United States and Chinese officials but the United States administration plan to remove some tariff on Chinese goods looks to support the existing risk-on sentiment. Everything boosts the chances of an incomplete trade deal between the United States and China.

A Labour-party member as the speaker of House of Commons and questions on the Prime Ministers’ performance in the report of Russia interference in British politics looks to hint additional difficulty for the United Kingdom citizen.

However, the British traders will keep their eyes on October month figures of services Purchasing Managers Index from the United Kingdom, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, second-tier jobs data, and trade balance will enhance the economic calendar of United States.


Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2769

S2 1.2835

S1 1.2858

Pivot Point 1.29

R1 1.2924

R2 1.2965

R3 1.303

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD hasn’t changed much so far as it continues to trade bullish due to the weaker U.S. dollar. The Cable has outraged the previous resistance level of 1.2930. Now the pair is likely to face fresh resistance around 1.3050 area. Consider staying bullish above 1.2941 today.  

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair flashing green and representing 0.17% gains on the day mainly due to positive news came regarding trade. Notably, the pair is currently hit the session highs above 108.77. Whereas the recovery in the pair came from Friday’s lows of 107.89 is bright.

Japanese traders enjoy the heightening chances of the Successful trade deal between the United States and China after a holiday. As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair takes buying to 108.75.

Besides, it’s not only the trade war-related positive comments from the United States and Chinese officials, but the United States administration plan to remove some tariff on Chinese goods looks to support the existing risk-on sentiment.

As a result, the United States’ ten-year Treasury yields continue the previous run-up to 1.8%, whereas Japan’s NIKKEI climbed 1.5% high at the start of Tuesday trading.

There is another reason behind the pair’s bullish trend, and that’s the support of greenback from the market. It came after the Fridays more than expected Nonfarm Payrolls that ward off Mondays’ adverse Factory Orders. Moreover, the U.S. dollar strong buying could be the new comments from the San Francisco Feds Mary C Daly, who declined the scope of the recession.


Daily Support and Resistance

S3 107.62

S2 108.05

S1 108.33

Pivot Point 108.49

R1 108.76

R2 108.92

R3 109.35

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY continues to trade bearish with the selling bias due to weakness in the U.S. dollar. The USD/JPY pair broke the bullish channel, which was holding the USD/JPY at 108.800 zones.

Three Black Crows candlestick patterns are suggesting chances of additional selling in the USD/JPY until 107.450 today. On the upper side, resistance is likely to stay at 108.350. Consider taking bearish trades under 108.350 today.  

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair found on the bearish outside day candlestick pattern even after the positive news came regarding the United States and China trade progress and seen the risk-on sentiment in the financial markets.

As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair dropped from 1.1175 to 1.1125 during the Monday and consolidating between the highs and lows. Notably, the bearish outside day candlestick pattern is broadly considered as a sign of a coming bearish reversal.

If the EUR/USD currency pair closes below the level of 1.1125 in today’s trading hour so then the trend reversal would be confirmed. By the way, the currency pair is currently trading at 1.1124, having hit the low of 1.1113 a few minutes ago.

The German economy badly damaged mainly due to the United States and China trade war, sending the Eurozone’s manufacturing powerhouse on the edge of the slowdown. So, the heightened chances of the United States and China makes a trade deal are supportive headlines for Eurozpn and Germany.

The market bought greenback during the Monday and will likely continue to buy more today, possibly due to the decrease of trade tensions that provides the Federal Reserve more opportunity to pause the rate cut series.


Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.1033

S2 1.1087

S1 1.1105

Pivot Point 1.114

R1 1.1158

R2 1.1194

R3 1.1247

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD has struck below the double top resistance point of 1.1175 and has lately closed series of neutral candles, which are suggesting chances of a bearish bias until the 1.1175 level gets violated. The pair still stays in the buying zone as the MACD, and RSI value is holding above 0 and 50, respectively. Consider staying bullish above 1.1153 to 1.1180 and 1.1220 today. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, November 04– Major Trade Setups – Stronger NFP Supports Dollar!

The Dollar Index slipped 0.2% on the day to 97.12 on Friday, down for a fifth straight session. The euro edged up 0.1% to $1.1167 while the British pound was

The Dollar Index slipped 0.2% on the day to 97.12 on Friday, down for a fifth straight session. The euro edged up 0.1% to $1.1167 while the British pound was

The Dollar Index slipped 0.2% on the day to 97.12 on Friday, down for a fifth straight session. The euro edged up 0.1% to $1.1167 while the British pound was little changed at $1.2935. The Markit U.K. Manufacturing PMI bounced to 49.6 in October (48.2 expected) from 48.3 in September.

USD/JPY rebounded 0.2% from a three-week low to 108.19. USD/CAD fell 0.2% to 1.3136. The Markit Canada Manufacturing PMI climbed to 51.2 in October from 51.0 in September.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

  

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair flashing green and found on the recovery track mainly due to increasing optimism regarding the post-December election. As of writing, the cable pair currently trading at 1.2940.

At the time of writing, the GBP/USD pair was traded at 1.2937, up 0.03%, because traders await new ECB head Christine Lagarde’s first official speech, which is scheduled to happen later in the day.

Be it YouGov, Ipsos or Deltapoll suggest a clear lead of the Boris Johnson over the main opposition Labour Party regarding the general election on December 12. However, the United Kingdom Prime Minster Boris Johnson still looks doubtful due to Times mentions that the PM Boris Johnson will remove all fear regarding the no-Brexit deal from the Conservative party manifesto.

Moreover, the announcement came from the U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross during the Sunday that the licenses for the American firm to perform business with the blacklisted Chinese Huawei companies will be given very soon. Apart from this, he said that the United States and China already very delayed with phase one of the trade deal, so the agreement will likely be signed very soon.

As we know, there was a little movement in the risk-on market, possibly due to President Donald Trump did not attend the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Thailand.

Moreover, the market sentiment has been unstable since the start due to the lack of primary data, and the event and Japan market closed as well.

Looking forward, all investors will keep their eyes on the trade and Brexit headlines whereas also keeping the focus on Markit Construction Purchasing Managers Index from the United Kingdom and the United States Facote Orders for September. 

Market consensus supports an upbeat print of 44.00 against 43.3 from the British PMI, whereas also expecting the U.S. statistics to decrease further to -0.3% from -0.1% previous.



Daily Support and Resistance    

S3 1.2855

S2 1.2901

S1 1.292

Pivot Point 1.2946

R1 1.2966

R2 1.2992

R3 1.3037

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD hasn’t changed much so far as it continues to trade bullish due to the weaker U.S. dollar. The Cable has outraged the previous resistance level of 1.2930. Now the pair is likely to face fresh resistance around 1.3050 area. Consider staying bullish above 1.2941 today.  

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair consolidates in the narrow range near the 108.22, and the pair failed to reach on the bullish track of 100-day EMA as the global risk headlines were entirely in the market for the weekend.

However, the USD/JPY currency pair recently got support from the United States, and China trades positive news because the United States President Donald Trump recently hinted that the round-one of a trade deal would be signed in this month near the U.S. 

Moreover, the announcement came from the U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross during the Sunday that the licenses for the American firm to perform business with the blacklisted Chinese Huawei companies will be given very soon. Apart from this, he said that the United States and China already very delayed with phase one of the trade deal, so the agreement will likely be signed very soon.

While the United States’ ten-year treasury yield recently declined to multi-weeks lows mainly due to the United States Federal Reserve Bank, Indonesia and Central Bank of Brazil recently announced the 3rd consecutive rate cut in their benchmark rates.

Such as the markets of japan close today due to culture holiday so that investors will keep their focus on the risk catalysts like the United States and China trade-headlines and political plays regarding the Brexit for fresh impulse.

Notably, the risk tone in the market could keep recent recovery mainly due to the positive sentiment regarding trade deal between the United States and China and also due to receding political uncertainty regarding Brexit. However, any negative activity or headlines could be taken very seriously regarding the market’s uncertainty.

    


Daily Support and Resistance

    

S3 107.33

S2 107.74

S1 107.96

Pivot Point 108.14

R1 108.37

R2 108.55

R3 108.96

 USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY continues to trade bearish with the selling bias due to weakness in the U.S. dollar. The USD/JPY pair broke the bullish channel, which was holding the USD/JPY at 108.800 zones.

Three Black Crows candlestick patterns are suggesting chances of additional selling in the USD/JPY until 107.450 today. On the upper side, resistance is likely to stay at 108.350. Consider taking bearish trades under 108.350 today.  

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair flashing green and presently trading at 1.1170, in the wake of the United States and China trade patch-up certainty. Moreover, the EUR/USD pair could take more buying trends, mainly due to confidence surrounding the United States and China.

Whereas, the Shared currency hit the low of 1.1128 during the United States trading session on Friday due to U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls beats forecasted numbers. No Doubt, the decline was short-lived, and the EUR/USD currency pair closed on the bullish track near 1.1165.

So, the EUR/USD currency pair least resistance level is on the bullish range. Whereas, the pair’s bullish sentiment could be increased due to the United States and China trade optimism and the resulting risk-on in the equities. 

An announcement came from the U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross during the Sunday that the licenses for the American firm to perform business with the blacklisted Chinese Huawei companies will be given very soon. Apart from this, he said that the United States and China already very delayed with phase one of the trade deal, so the agreement will likely be signed very soon.

It should be noted that the Eurozone’s manufacturing powerhouse has got a big hit in the wake of the Sino-US trade war. Therefore, trade certainty between the United States and China could support the German economy and the EUR currency.

As of data, the final Manfutring PMI figures are scheduled to release across the EurozoneEurozone. Moreover, the Eurozone’s Sentix Investor Confidence for November is expected to release at 09:30 GMT, may leave any impact on the currency pair. Across the pond, the ISM-NY Business Conditions Index (Oct) and Factory Orders (Sep) data are scheduled for release. 



Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.1067

S2 1.1111

S1 1.1138

Pivot Point 1.1155

R1 1.1182

R2 1.1199

R3 1.1243

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD has struck below the double top resistance point of 1.1175 and has lately closed series of neutral candles, which are suggesting chances of a bearish bias until the 1.1175 level gets violated. The pair still stays in the buying zone as the MACD, and RSI value is holding above 0 and 50, respectively. Consider staying bullish above 1.1153 to 1.1180 and 1.1220 today. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, November 01– Major Trade Setups – Trader Awaits NFP Figures! 

The U.S. dollar weakened further Thursday, amid uncertainties over a long-term U.S.-China trade deal and impeachment inquiry into President Trump. The ICE Dollar Index slid 0.2% on the day to

The U.S. dollar weakened further Thursday, amid uncertainties over a long-term U.S.-China trade deal and impeachment inquiry into President Trump. The ICE Dollar Index slid 0.2% on the day to

The U.S. dollar weakened further Thursday, amid uncertainties over a long-term U.S.-China trade deal and impeachment inquiry into President Trump. The ICE Dollar Index slid 0.2% on the day to 97.30, posting a four-day decline.

The euro edged up 0.1% to $1.1157. Official data showed that the eurozone third-quarter GDP grew 1.1% on the year, and CPI rose 0.7% on year in October, both were in-line with estimates.

The British pound advanced 0.3% to $1.2938. Later today, the Markit U.K. Manufacturing PMI for October will be released (48.2 expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair flashing green and consolidates near the recent gains to 1.2930 by the press time. Notably, the GBP/USD currency pair currently awaits the early-month data from the United States and the United Kingdom to extend the recent bullish moves beyond 8th-day tops.

As we all well aware that these days confirmed to be most damaging for the U.S. Dollar against the bucket of currencies, therefore the traders of U.S. Dollar await for fresh clues.

The main reasons behind the greenback weakness are a rate cut, which is delivered by the Federal Reserve for the 3rd time back to back during this year, and apart from this, the rising uncertainty between the United States and China trade matter and china joined mixed data from the United States.

At the GBP front, the British got support from the increasing possibilities of the United Kingdoms present Prime Minster Boris Johnson to continue to his post after the snap elections during the December. Also, there were strong expectations regarding the pair’s bullish trend as the United Kingdom Prime MInster Boris Johson has strong relations with the United States and can be trusted for good trade relations in the future.

At the data front, all eyes will be on October month Market Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) from the U.K. and employment stats, ISM Manufacturing PM. We look for the manufacturing PMI to increase from 48.3 to 48.9 during October, supported by inventory building ahead of the (at the time of the survey) Brexit deadline of October 31. 

Regarding the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), “U.S. Oct non-farm payrolls are anticipated to increase by 85,000 with the General Motors strike and decrease in census workers both a drag on headline employment increases. The jobless rate is seen to edge back up to 3.6% from a 50 year low 3.5%, and average hourly earnings growth is anticipated to stabilize at 3.0%yr after Sep’s sudden fall to 2.9%yr from 3.2%yr during August.



Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2821

S2 1.2881

S1 1.2906

Pivot Point 1.2941

R1 1.2966

R2 1.3001

R3 1.3062

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD hasn’t changed much so far as it continues to trade bullish due to the weaker U.S. dollar. The Cable has outraged the previous resistance level of 1.2930. Now the pair is likely to face fresh resistance around 1.3050 area. Consider staying bullish above 1.2941 today.  

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair flashing red and dropped from the high of 108.90 and just below the 200-day Moving Average, mainly due to report regarding trader war. Thus, investors were cautious and uncomfortable in the wake of news in which China said that we still open to continue trade talks after the first phase.

Notably, the benchmarks on Wall Street were stepped back from its highs due to the report that stated that Chinese legislators are spreading uncertainties regarding the matter of making a comprehensive long-term trade deal with the United States, even as both sides are close to reached on the trade deal.

Overall, the United States’ two-year treasury yields subsequently dropped from 1.62% to 1.52%, whereas the ten-year yield fell from 1.78% to 1.68%. After yesterday’s Federal Reserve interest rate cut and statement, markets were pricing in a Federal Reserve rate of 1.50% at the December conference and a terminal rate of 1.15% against 1.63% currently.



Daily Support and Resistance    

S3 106.63

S2 107.43

S1 107.73

Pivot Point 108.23

R1 108.52

R2 109.02

R3 109.82

 USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY continues to trade bearish with the selling bias due to weakness in the U.S. dollar. The USD/JPY pair broke the bullish channel, which was holding the USD/JPY at 108.800 zones.

Three Black Crows candlestick patterns are suggesting chances of additional selling in the USD/JPY until 107.450 today. On the upper side, resistance is likely to stay at 108.350. Consider taking bearish trades under 108.350 today.  

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

EUR/USD pair overall sentiment is bullish. But as for now, the EUR/USD currency pair consolidates in the narrow range near the 1.1170 after the post-EMU data releases in the Euroland.

As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair bullish trend is still strong and well sound, mainly after the advanced inflation figures in the Euroland. Also, headline consumer prices are anticipated to increase at an annualized 0.7% from 0.8% while Core prices are also rose somewhat to 1.1% from 1.0.

Moreover, the flash GDP numbers observe the economy in the bloc expanding 1.1% every year from 1.2% during the July and September month 

Whereas, the consecutive weakness in the U.S. dollar still support the EUR/USD currency pair while resumed trade concerns raised recently due to the Chinese officials remain doubtful on the long term trade deal with the United States.

On the technical side, the EUR/USD currency pair is rose by 0.19% at 1.1171 and faced the high resistance barrier at 1.1179 (monthly high Oct.21) seconded by 1.1186 (61.8% Fibo of the 2017-2018 rally) and finally 1.1197 (200-day SMA). At the bearish front, the breakdown of 1.1072 (low Oct.25) would target 1.1042 (55-day SMA) en route to 1.0925 (low Sep.3).

Such as, the EUR currency has succeeded in recovering the bullish monthly range, mainly due to the continued selling pressure in the Greenback.

On the other hand, the chances that the German economy may move into recession in Q3 remains an obvious risk for the outlook and is expected to send EUR currency down for the short and medium-term range.

    

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.1064

S2 1.1109

S1 1.113

Pivot Point 1.1153

R1 1.1175

R2 1.1197

R3 1.1242

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD has struck below the double top resistance point of 1.1175 and has lately closed series of neutral candles, which are suggesting chances of a bearish bias until the 1.1175 level gets violated. The pair still stays in the buying zone as the MACD, and RSI value is holding above 0 and 50, respectively. Consider staying bullish above 1.1153 to 1.1180 and 1.1220 today. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, October 31– Major Trade Setups – Fed Cuts Rates, GPD Figures In Highlight! 

The U.S. dollar softened Wednesday, as the Fed expectedly lowered interest rates. The ICE Dollar Index was down 0.2% on the day to 97.45. The euro rose 0.4% to $1.1152.

The U.S. dollar softened Wednesday, as the Fed expectedly lowered interest rates. The ICE Dollar Index was down 0.2% on the day to 97.45. The euro rose 0.4% to $1.1152.

The U.S. dollar softened Wednesday, as the Fed expectedly lowered interest rates. The ICE Dollar Index was down 0.2% on the day to 97.45. The euro rose 0.4% to $1.1152. Official data showed that French GDP grew 1.3% on year in the third quarter (as expected and +1.4% in the second quarter). Later today, the eurozone third-quarter GDP will be reported (+1.1% on-year expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair flashing green and trading near the 1.2930 due to decreeing the uncertainty surrounding the British politics and Federal Reserve rate cut.

One of the main reasons behind the GBP/USD pair revery is Europen Unions 3-month Brexit extension, as well as increasing chances of the December snap election and public support to the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johson looks to support the cable pair recently. 

At the trade front, the uncertainty surrounding the United States and China trade deal, in the wake of no fixed meeting place, joins the U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s said that China’s ruling Communist Party (CCP) took benefits from the U.S. goodwill. All traders look to ignore the recent support from the United States side to China.

Whereas, the Chinas Commerce Ministry shares more direction regarding trade discussion, which will happen through the telephone call between the official, and made sure that no change will be coming in the plan for talks.

It should be noted that the risk sentiment has been slow, and also the U.S. ten-year Treasury yields fell to 1.80%, whereas Asian stocks supported by the Feral Reserve rate cut.

Looking forward, the markets will ready for Friday’s employment headlines data from the United States, as well as all focus will keep on trade and Brexit headlines and 2nd-tier statistics on the economic calendar.



Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2758

S2 1.2822

S1 1.2862

Pivot Point 1.2885

R1 1.2926

R2 1.2949

R3 1.3013

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD is trading bullish in the wake of a weaker dollar. The pair faced triple bottom support at 1.2780 level, which triggered a bullish trend in the GBP/USD. On the upperside, the Cable may hit the first target at 1.2960, and the bullish breakout of this level can drive more buying until 1.3000 today.  

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair found on the multi-day low nearby 108.65 despite the Bank of Japan announces that no monetary policy change. The Bank of Japan faced the broad expectations of the market, whereas the holding short-term interest rate target at -0.10% with a 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield target around zero. However, the Japanese central bank gave more transparency in its fresh direction through the 3rd-quarter Outlook Report.

As a result, the greenback and Treasury yields surged but then turned back during the Powell press conference. The United States’ two-year Treasury yields surged six-basis points to 1.67% before sliding back to 1.60%, -4 basis points for the day. Finally, the USD/JPY currency pair rose to 109.29 – as being a 3-month bullish before going back to 108.85, unchanged on the day. 

At the data front, the United States Q3 GDP slipped from 2.0% to 1.9% annualized but was above expectations of 1.6%, supported by a stronger consumer. In y/y terms Q3 19 against Q3 18, growth slipped to 2.0% from 2.3%. Personal consumption increased by 2.9%, crossed the estimate of 2.6%, with particularly strong personal durable goods purchases of 5.4%. Core PCE inflation rose to a 2.2% pace from 1.9%, as expected. The ADP private payrolls survey rose 125k in Oct (vs. est. 110k), but the previous reading was revised down from 135k to 93k.

On the other hand, the risk market has been slow overnight due to the uncertainty surrounding the United States and China trade deal. In the wake of no fixed meeting place, joins the U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s said that China’s ruling Communist Party (CCP) took benefits from the U.S. goodwill. All traders look to ignore the recent support from the United States side to China. Traders want to decrease the uncertainty regarding Brexit.

Looking forward, the markets will ready for Friday’s employment headlines data from the United States, as well as all focus will keep on the Nonfarm Payrolls, while trade and Brexit headlines and 2nd-tier statistics on the economic calendar will continue under the trader’s eyes.


Daily Support and Resistance

S3 107.82

S2 108.39

S1 108.63

Pivot Point 108.96

R1 109.19

R2 109.53

R3 110.09

 USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading sharply bearish amid weakness in the U.S. dollar over interest rate cut decision. The USD/JPY pair violated the bullish channel, which was supporting the USD/JPY at 108.800 area. 

Bearish engulfing candles are still suggesting chances of further selling in the USD/JPY until 108.450 today. On the upper side, resistance is likely to stay at 108.750. Consider taking selling trades below 108.750 today.  

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD Currency Pair hit the bullish track and surged sharply from the 20-day Moving Average at 1.1075, increasing more than 50-basis-points. The pair crossed the level 1.1130 and found on the six-day high at 1.1149. So, the EUR/USD currency pair currently stands on the bullish tone, mainly after the FOCM meeting.

After the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the U.S. Dollar surged across the boards, sending the EUR/USD currency pair toward the 1.1070and 1.1080 range. As expected, the central bank rate cut the key interest rate but signaled a pause ahead. 

During Powell’s speech, the U.S. Dollar lost the strength and then rose sharply, mainly due to when Chairman mentioned there would not be a rate hike until there is a significant move up in inflation. Whereas, Chairman’s comment pushed higher the equity princes in Wall Street and sent the greenback to fresh lows across the board.

As of now, the EUR/USD Currency Pair remains to increase into 4th-day during the Thursday, in the wake of Greenback weakness, mainly due to the latest United States Federal Reserve rate cut continues to keep the bearish sentiment around the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields.

As we all well aware that the Federal Reserve delivered a rate cut by the 25-basis-points during the last trading hours; however, they indicated a pause in the future easing. Moreover, the traders continue to worry because of the impact of the rate cut on the economy and about Uncetanitny between the United States and China trade progress.



Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.0981

S2 1.1055

S1 1.1104

Pivot Point 1.1129

R1 1.1178

R2 1.1203

R3 1.1277

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD has reached under the double top resistance level of 1.1175 and has recently closed the Doji candle, which is suggesting chances of a bearish bias in the pair. The pair is oversold as the MACD, and RSI value stays in the bullish zone. Consider staying bearish below 1.1175 to target 1.1120 today. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, October 30– Major Trade Setups – Monetary Policy Decisions Ahead! 

The U.S. Dollar Index kept trading within a tight range on Tuesday, closing down 0.1% to 97.69, as investors await the Fed’s interest rates decision.

The euro gained 0.1% to

The U.S. Dollar Index kept trading within a tight range on Tuesday, closing down 0.1% to 97.69, as investors await the Fed’s interest rates decision.

The euro gained 0.1% to

The U.S. Dollar Index kept trading within a tight range on Tuesday, closing down 0.1% to 97.69, as investors await the Fed’s interest rates decision.

The euro gained 0.1% to $1.1112, while the British pound was flat at $1.2866. The U.K. Parliament finally supported Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s plan for an early election, which would be held on December 12.

USD/JPY fell 0.1% to 108.88.

Meanwhile, USD/CAD advanced 0.3% to 1.3092 amid weakness in oil prices. On the other hand, the Bank of Canada is expected to keep its benchmark rate at 1.75% unchanged later today.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair consolidates in the narrow range near the 1.2865 despite the United Kingdom parliament approving the extension for the December snap elections. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair s currently trading at 1.2863 and has spent a large part of the last 12 hours chipping away at the resistance of the bull flag on the 4-hour chart.

As we all well aware that the market is cautious not only because of key events but the shortage of fresh hints, so in the consequences, the GBP/USD pair is stuck in the tight range during the Asian trading hours.

During the Tuesday, the United Kingdom parliament approved the law for the first December snap eclection since 1932. The bill will likely become law on the weekend.

On the other hand, the breakout could remain difficult or fail mainly if the Federal Reserve delivers the rate cut by the 25 basis-points and give a hint to pause rate cut series, pushing the U.S. Treasury yields and the greenback higher across the board. It should also b noted that the market has already priced in the 25-basis-points easing.

Apart from the Federal Reserve decision, the GBP/USD currency pair could take hints from the U.S. Q3 preliminary GDP and the monthly ADP jobs data.

On the technical side, while 1.3000 and the fresh high near 1.3015 could keep the pair’s near-term upside limited, a bearish break of 1.2800 could take rest on the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 1.2715 ahead of revisiting September high surrounding 1.2580.



Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2661

S2 1.276

S1 1.2813

Pivot Point 1.2859

R1 1.2911

R2 1.2958

R3 1.3056

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD is still trading the same range, mostly trading bullish above 1.2830 range. On Wednesday, the GBP/USD proceeds to trade bullish above 1.2830 major trading levels. 

On the 4-hour chart, the pair has formed Doji patterns, which is weighing on the bullish trend, but the MACD and RSI are proposing bullish preference. Consider taking buying positions over 1.2859 and bearish under the same level ahead of FOMC and Fed rate decision.

 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY closed at 108.974 after placing a high of 109.037 and a low of 108.657. The overall movement for the pair remained Bullish that day. At 4:50 GMT, the Services Producer Price Index (SPPI) from the Bank of Japan was released and remained the same for the year at 0.5%. 

At 17:30 GMT, the International Goods Trade Balance of the United States for September came in as -70.4B against the expectations of -73.5B and supported the U.S. Dollar on Monday. The negative Prelim Wholesale Inventories from the United States for September also supported the U.S. Dollar. It showed a decline to -0.3% from the previous month’s 0.2%.

The robust macroeconomic data from the U.S. at the starting day of the week gave strength to the U.S. Dollar and increased the prices of USD/JPY in Financial Markets.

On Monday, USD/JPY was rallied to 109 after the Positive comments from Trump about the US-China trade deal and increased U.S. Yields. Trump told the reporters on Monday that he was expecting to sign a significant portion of the Phase-one deal ahead of schedule. Although he did not mention the time for signing the part of the deal, the hint of pre-schedule deal signing itself created a big fluctuation in the market.

The overall optimistic mentality from China & U.S. gave hopes to a possible end of the prevailing Trade-war between them. U.S. & China were expected to sign the phase-one deal at the upcoming APEC Summit in Chile, but Trump announced that a portion of that deal would be signed before the Summit.

This state of affairs raised the appetite for riskier assets in the market, and USD/JPY gained traction in this regard and created a Bullish trend for itself after moving in a consolidated range for almost 2-3 previous days. The incoming positive trade headlines increased the U.S. Yields and hence created more demand for USD/JPY.

  


Daily Support and Resistance

S3 108.13

S2 108.52

S1 108.75

Pivot Point 108.9

R1 109.13

R2 109.28

R3 109.66

 USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY surged to test the resistance area of 109.030, but the bullish momentum wasn’t strong enough to retain a bullish trend for a more extended period. The USD/JPY has dropped below the 109.036 area to retest the bullish trendline support at 108.800. Above this, we can expect USD/JPY to continue trading bullish today. 

So let’s keep an eye on 108.800 today to stay bullish above and bearish below the same level to capture quick 30 pips. The USD/JPY may gain support around 108.550 today. 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair consolidates in the narrow range near the 1.1109. The pair were fell from the recent highs near the 1.1180 during the previous session; probably, the pair will hit the high level again if the German inflation crosses the forecast figures, and the Federal Reserve delivers a dovish rate cut at the coming meeting.

On the technical side, the currency pair had created a bullish hammer candlestick during yesterday, making a strong follow-through to Mondays bullish inside day candlestick.

The consecutive bullish candles indicate the recovery from 1.1180 has likely ended up creating a bullish higher low near 1.1073. 

Whereas, the preliminary German consumer price index for October is still unchanged at 0% and fell moderately to 1.1% from 1.2% in annualized terms. 

The EUR/USD currency pair will likely get hints from the German job data, which is scheduled to release at 08:55 GMT. On the other hand, the preliminary U.S. Q3 GDP and the monthly ADP employment figures could leave a slight impact on the EUR pairs before the Federal Reserve rate decision.

The Federal Reserve is expected to deliver the 3rd rate cut by the 25 basis-points during 2019 on Wednesday and gives the hint of pause easing further. Moreover, the hawkish rate cut could be capping the upside in EUR/USD currency pair.

According to the forecast, the market has already priced in the rate cut. So, the EUR/USD currency pair could increase mainly if the Federal Reserve keeps the doors open for delivering another rate cut before the year’s end.

    


Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.1011

S2 1.1056

S1 1.1084

Pivot Point 1.1101

R1 1.1129

R2 1.1147

R3 1.1192

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD jumped off the support point of 1.1065 yesterday. A bullish trendline extended the support level, which is still keeping the EUR/USD upbeat. The pair rose to the retest 1.1100 area. Today, consider staying bullish above 1.1101 until the FOMC and Fed rate decision comes out.

All the best!

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, October 29 – Major Trade Setups – Trade War Fear Fades!

The risk sentiment remains on today amid faded safe-haven appeal over-optimism from the U.S. China trade deal. Regarding Brexit, Prime Minister Boris Johnson would still need support from the Liberal

The risk sentiment remains on today amid faded safe-haven appeal over-optimism from the U.S. China trade deal. Regarding Brexit, Prime Minister Boris Johnson would still need support from the Liberal

The risk sentiment remains on today amid faded safe-haven appeal over-optimism from the U.S. China trade deal. Regarding Brexit, Prime Minister Boris Johnson would still need support from the Liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party.

Notably, the 2-parties shown willingness to support a coming election if the Prime Minter Boris Johnson satisfies three conditions, no-deal Brexit is ruled out, no attempt to pass the PM’s Brexit deal before the election, and the election date is stipulated.

At the Fed front, the Federal Reserve is expected to deliver the rate cut by the 25-basis-points. As we are all well aware that this rate cut is counted as a 3rd-consecutive rate cut since July, markets are expecting the rate cut by 21-basis-points at the upcoming meeting on October 30 and the terminal velocity of 1.27% against the 1.88% currently.

The FOMC is expected to communicate patience in deciding future policy movements after the next week’s rate cut as they estimate the impact of the cuts which are delivered already. 

 

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

Economic Calendar by TradingView

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

Today in the early Asian session, the GBP/USD currency pair found on the bullish track according to the technical indicators. However, the strong bullish trend could remain difficult if the United Kingdom parliament again rejects Prime Minster Boris Jonhson December election proposal.

On the technical side, the 50-day Moving Average has ticked above the 100-day Moving Average, confirming a bullish cross for the first time after February.

The crossover shows a sequence of the recent rally from lows near 1.22, and so does the buyer’s flag marked on the 4-hour chart. As we are well aware that the Europan Union gave a Brexit extension of 3-months and the United Kingdom parliament has rejected Boris Johnson’s offer of snap elections.

The report came from an unknown source that Prime Minister Boris Johnson will request for another vote during the December election Tuesday, there are many possibilities of success as compared to the past way because thereby they just need a simple majority to succeed.

Looking ahead, Prime Minister Boris johnson would still need support from the Liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party. Notably, the two parties shown willingness to support a coming election if the Prime Minter Boris Johnson satisfies three conditions: no-deal Brexit is ruled out, there are no attempts to pass the PM’s Brexit deal before the election, and the election date is stipulated.

On the other hand, the United Kingdom housing prices, Consumer Credit, Money Supply, and Mortgage Approvals are scheduled to release during the European trading hours. Across the pond, the eyes will be on the U.S. Consumer Confidence data and Pending Home Sales. 

The GBP may challenge recent highs above 1.30, as hinted by technical studies if the Europan Parliament allows an early election. Notably, If the vote fails, then GBP could drop below support at 1.2788.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2727

S2 1.2789

S1 1.2826

Pivot Point 1.2851

R1 1.2888

R2 1.2914

R3 1.2976

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.2855 area, after gaining support at 1.2830. On Tuesday, the cable continues to trade choppy from 1.2950 – 1.2785. On the 4-hour chart, the bearish engulfing pattern is anticipated to hold the GBP/USD prices towards 1.2785 area today. 

The technical indicators such as the MACD and RSI are proposing neutral bias for the GBP/USD. Consider staying bullish above 1.2785 and bearish blow the same area to capture 30 pips on either side. 

 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair consolidates in the narrow range of 108.70 and 108.75, which is the strongest part of overnight trade until New York traders stepped in. This initiated a squeeze to as high as 109.04 3-months high, mainly due to the rise in the U.S. Treasury yields and certainty surrounding the United States and China trade relations.

The USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 108.98, flashing green on the day, having examined the 200-day M.A. line of 108.05 in the early Asian trading hours. 

President Donald Trump has fueled the market expectations by announcing that the United States is ahead of schedule to sign the first round of the United States and China trade deal ahead of when Xi and Trump are ready to meet in Chile next month. Moreover, the Chinese official said that most main parts of the deal basically completed already.

At the data front, the United States’ two-year Treasury yields rose from 1.63% to 1.67% – a one-month high, before steadying at 1.64%. The 10-year yield rose from 1.80% to 1.85%. United States benchmarks were also supported by the risk-on sentiment, with a fresh all-time closing high for the S&P 500, weighing on the Yen. 

The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to deliver the rate cut by the 25-basis-points, as we all well aware that this rate cut is counted as a 3rd-consecutive rate cut since July while markets are expecting the rate cut by 21-basis-points at the upcoming meeting on October 30 and the terminal velocity of 1.27% against the 1.88% currently.

The FOMC is expected to communicate patience in deciding future policy movements after the next week’s rate cut as they estimate the impact of the cuts which are delivered already.      


Daily Support and Resistance

S3 108.13

S2 108.52

S1 108.75

Pivot Point 108.9

R1 109.13

R2 109.28

R3 109.66

 USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY currency pair has already violated the sideways trading range to hit our suggested target of 108.950 area. For now, the 108.800 level is likely to extend solid support to the USD/JPY currency pair. 

With the bullish breakout of the 108.800 level, the USD/JPY is expected to trade until 109.355 while the MACD and RSI are also supporting the bullish bias in the USD/JPY currency pair today.   

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

During the Asian session, the EUR/USD currency pair consolidates in the narrow range around 1.100. However, during the Monday trading session, the couple was found on the bullish track and created a bullish inside day candlestick pattern, but the bullish moves could be capped due to hawkish expectation regarding the Federal Reserve rate cut and increase in the U.S. Treasury yields.

The EUR/USD currency pair closed at 0.19% up yesterday. Moreover, the bullish and bearish levels fell in Fridays trading range. As we know, the shared currency created a bullish inside day candle, which was showing by the chart.

The candlestick pattern arrangement is biased bullish. Although, the bullish trend in the pair could be reduced or continue to difficult because the Federal Reserve is expected to deliver the rate cut by the 25-basis-points during the Wednesday and lessen the need for an additional rate cut.

Therefore, heading toward the Federal Reserve rate cut decision, the United States Treasury yields could increase, keeping the greenback better buying. Notably, the ten-year yield has already increased by 14-basis-points, since the last 3-days

As of writing, the Treasury yield is found at 1.85%, and the EUR/USD currency pair is trading mostly flat on the day near 1.11.

On the other hand, the EUR currency may take hints from the German Bundesbank President Weidmann’s speech, which is scheduled to deliver at 09:50 GMT and the U.S. housing data and consumer confidence number expected to release at 14:00 GMT.

Daily Support and Resistance    

S3 1.1045

S2 1.107

S1 1.1085

Pivot Point 1.1096

R1 1.1111

R2 1.1121

R3 1.1147

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

As discussed before, the EUR/USD is trading below 1.1100 support becomes resistance area. Overall, the trend in the EUR/USD remains bearish below 1.1100, as we can also notice the leading indicators such as MACD and RSI. 

On the lower side, the EUR/USD may find support at 1.1065, and the violation of this level could extend sell-off until the 1.1020 area. On the upperside, the resistance prevails at 1.1115. A bullish breakout of 1.1115 can lead to 1.1160. Let’s for selling trades below 1.1110 today. 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, October 25 – Major Trade Setups – Risk-off Sentiment Plays! 

The U.S. Dollar Index gained 0.2% on the day to 97.68 on Thursday amid mixed U.S. economic data. The euro slid 0.3% to $1.1104. The European Central Bank held its

The U.S. Dollar Index gained 0.2% on the day to 97.68 on Thursday amid mixed U.S. economic data. The euro slid 0.3% to $1.1104. The European Central Bank held its

The U.S. Dollar Index gained 0.2% on the day to 97.68 on Thursday amid mixed U.S. economic data. The euro slid 0.3% to $1.1104. The European Central Bank held its benchmark rates unchanged as expected. ECB President Mario Draghi said risks to the outlook are “on the downside” compared with “tilted to the downside” previously. 

On the other hand, the Markit eurozone manufacturing purchasing managers’ index was flat on the month at 45.7 in October (46.0 expected) while the Services PMI rose to 51.8 (51.9 expected) from 51.6.

The pound dropped 0.6% to $1.2838. U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he would call for an early general election for December 12. Meanwhile, the European Union is expected to decide the length of Brexit delay later today.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair consolidating in the narrow range below the 200-hour Moving Average at 0.2852, due to the uncertainty intensified regarding the Brexit deal and the United Kingdom eclection. Notably, the pair may remain under pressure mainly due to increased risk.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson admitted for the first time that he would not fulfill his (do or die) promise to get a departure between the U.K. and E.U. before October 31 and asked for a fresh election on December 12 to break Britain’s Brexit obstacle.

Although the opposition has rejected the election offer and LAbour leader Jermy Corbyn said that he would wait to observe what will the European Union decides regarding the Brexit delay before deciding that how to put the vote on Monday.

Moreover, the European Union is thinking of granting a 3-months delay. However, the decision may not come on Friday. The Brexit is moving in the uncertainty track, and Prime Minister Boris Johnson looks stuck in the middle. Therefore, traders are cautious about buying GBP.

On the technical side, the Technical charts are also indicating a move lower. It should be noted that Thursday’s bearish candlestick has opened the opportunities for a broader reversal, perhaps to the 200-day average at 1.2710.



Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2539

S2 1.2701

S1 1.2774

Pivot Point 1.2862

R1 1.2936

R2 1.3024

R3 1.3186

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

After violating the bullish channel, the GBP/USD pair is trading bearish at 1.2835 area. Overall, the Cable is maintaining a sideways range of 1.2950 – 1.2785. The bearish engulfing candle on the 4-hour timeframe is likely to lead the GBP/USD prices towards 1.2785 area today. 

The MACD and RSI indicators are holding in the selling zone, supporting the bearish trend in the GBP/USD. Consider staying bearish below 1.2845 today. 

 

XAU/USD – Daily Analysis

The safe-haven prices rose somewhat due to traders are awaited the next weeks, the United States Federal Reserve policy conference.

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s policymakers will attend next week. Its Oct. 29-30 policy settlement is required to yield in a 3rd-straight quarter-point rate cut.

President Trump tweeted that, “The Federal Reserve is negligent in its duties if it doesn’t deliver the rate cut and even, ideally, stimulate.

Gold prices remain supported in the wake of Japan’s manufacturing activity, which declined at the fastest rate in 3-years. Meanwhile, The U.S. PMI opposed expectations for a drop and rose marginally, but with limited impact on the prices of the safe-haven gold.



Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1466.32

S2 1482.53

S1 1493.22

Pivot Point 1498.74

R1 1509.43

R2 1514.95

R3 1531.16

XAU/USD – Trading Tips

Gold’s bullish trend continues to dominate the market. Closing of 4-hour candles above 1,495 and 1,503 area is indicating chances of further buying in the gold. The precious metal has formed three white soldiers pattern, which typically drives the bullish trend in the market.

On the upper side, the next resistance is likely to be 1,511. Therefore, we should look for buying positions above 1,500 area to target 1508 today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair is sidelined below the 200-day moving average and consolidating in the narrow range of 108.50 and 108.7 overnight, even after the United Sateta data a geopolitical uncertainty. 

As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 108.60, having ranged between the level of 108.56and 108.64.

At the Hong Kong front, the condition is dull in Asia right now, but the markets keep their eyes on how the Chinese can react to comments regarding the Honk Kong and China, where he criticized the Chinese over security and human rights.

At the U.S. data front, the United States September Durable Goods Orders were depressed, and the volatile headline dropped -1.1%m/m against an estimate of -0.7%m/m. Though, September New Home Sales found on the positive side, with an increase of 701,000 against 702,000, against the previous revised to 706k from 713k, though average annual prices continued to ease. Markit PMIs also held steady in October, whereby Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.5 and bat the estimates of 50.9 and prior 51.1. Services came in line with expectations with an increase in the composite level to 51.2 from 51.0.

Moreover, the United States’ two-year Treasury yields waited in normal ranges between 1.55% and 1.58%, and the ten-year return moved between 1.74% and 1.77%. Markets are expecting 22-basis points of a rate cut at the October 30 meeting and a terminal rate of 1.21% against 1.88% currently. President Trump tweeted that, “The Federal Reserve is negligent in its duties if it doesn’t deliver the rate cut and even, ideally, stimulate.

At the Brexit front, the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson admitted for the first time that he would not fulfill his (do or die) promise to get departure between the U.K. and E.U. before October 31, and asked for fresh elections on December 12 to break Britain’s Brexit obstacle.

While the European Union was expected to give its answer to the United Kingdom governments request for a delay of European Union membership beyond October. However, due to the conflict between the United Kingdom parliament members, the European Union will decide to prefer to get some transparency first because it is continuously creating uncertainty in U.K. politics and Brexit.



Daily Support and Resistance

S3 108.11

S2 108.37

S1 108.5

Pivot Point 108.63

R1 108.76

R2 108.88

R3 109.14

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Friday, the safe have currency pair USD/JPY is facing support at 108.280. This level has become a triple bottom level and pushed the USD/JPY higher for the third time. At the moment, the USD/JPY trend is mixed as it holds right below an immediate resistance level of 108.650. Violation of this level can extend buying until the next resistance level of 108.900. 

Today, let’s keep an eye on 108.650 to stay bearish or bullish above this level to capture quick trade in the USD/JPY. 

All the best!  

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, October 24 – Major Trade Setups – Traders Brace for ECB! 

The European Central bank rate decision is scheduled to release at 11:45 GMT, and Mario Draghi will conduct the press conference at 12:30 GMT. Apart from this, the

The European Central bank rate decision is scheduled to release at 11:45 GMT, and Mario Draghi will conduct the press conference at 12:30 GMT. Apart from this, the

The European Central bank rate decision is scheduled to release at 11:45 GMT, and Mario Draghi will conduct the press conference at 12:30 GMT. Apart from this, the EUR/USD currency pair may get any fresh hints from the United States Durable Goods order, which is scheduled to release at 12:30 GMT and the German preliminary Manufacturing PMIs and Eurozone due in the European trading hours.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair consolidating in the narrow range near the 1.29 and could continue to trading in the tight range due to the Brexit Uncertainty.

As the Prime Minister Boris Johson failed to convince parliament to approve the Brexit deal as a law, therefore Prime Minister Boris Johnson is now on the waiting mood that the Europan Union to decide whether to agree to his 3-months delay request.

Moreover, PM Boris Johnson Spokesman has stated that the election will be compulsory if the European Union approved a request for a 3-month delay.

However, there are very fewer chances that the European Union will decide before Friday. So, traders will be cautious until any fresh news does not come.

The GBP/USD currency pair may beat the recent highs around the 1.30 in the American trading hours if the United States Goods order data release below expects figures, by the way, the data is scheduled to release at 12:30 GMT, rising the dovish Federal Reserve expectations.

It should also be remarked that the United States Central Bank is expected to deliver a rate cut by the 25-basis-points at its coming meeting.


Daily Support and Resistance

    

S3 1.2733

S2 1.2813

S1 1.2864

Pivot Point 1.2894

R1 1.2945

R2 1.2974

R3 1.3054

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD has broken the bullish channel, which was carrying the pair near 1.2945. The formation fo a bearish engulfing candle is suggesting chances of a bearish reversal in the GBP/USD pair. 

On the lower side, the Sterling may find support at 1.2785 level, which also marks a double bottom on the 4-hour chart. Besides, the resistance stays at 1.2945 level. Consider staying bearish below 1.2920 today. 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

During the early Asian session, the EUR/USD currency pair trying to cross the 100-hour Moving Average level at 1.1140, mainly due to the European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision, which will be the last decision by the Mario Draghi as president.

The central bank rate cut by ten-basis points to -0.5% during September and announced a new step of the asset purchase program.

Europan Central Bank hasn’t many reasons to change its position at today’s meeting because the recent macro data report has been positive. Moreover, the European Central Bank members were divided due to the need to reviving bond purchases.

However, the bearish trend seems limited because the September month stimulus has been priced in. Besides this, it appears that markets are more interested in knowing hints by the incoming President Christine Lagarde in 2019 and 2020.

The European Central bank rate decision is scheduled to release at 11:45 GMT, and Draghi will hold the press conference at 12:30 GMT. Apart from this, the EUR/USD currency pair may get any fresh hints from the United States Durable Goods order, which is scheduled to release at 12:30 GMT and the German preliminary Manufacturing PMIs and Eurozone due in the European trading hours.

An unexpectedly weaker US data will support the dovish Federal Reserve expectations, and probably this greenback will drop across the board. Notably, the markets remain expecting the Federal Reserve will deliver the rate cut by the 25-basis-points on October 30.

Daily Support and Resistance 

S3 1.1058

S2 1.1092

S1 1.1112

Pivot Point 1.1126

R1 1.1147

R2 1.1161

R3 1.1195

EUR/USD – Trading Tips

The EUR/USD consolidates between 1.1116 and 1.1157 after placing a high around 1.1160 at the start of the week. For now, the EUR/USD is likely to continue consolidating in the narrow range of 1.1110 – 1.1150, at least ahead of the ECB rate decision. 

The EUR/USD is bearing double bottom support at 1.1110 regions, and over this, we can anticipate a bullish trend in the EUR/USD until 1.1150 and 1.1180. On the flip side, selling can be expected beneath 1.1110 till the 1.1065 area. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair flashing red and declines to 108.60, due to downbeat Brexit news increased the risk-on sentiment. The USD/JPY currency pair recently got support from the upbeat headlines regarding the United States and China trade agreement and Brexit, not to ignore the greenback weakness due to soft data. Although the increases could not long term due to the current threats from the United Kingdom. As of consequence, the recovery in the United States ten-year US treasury yields could not take much longer, whereas Wall street also ended with minor increases.

Brexit headlines and SIno-US trade headline keeps the markets cautious, as fears of hard Brexit and a potential trade deal between the United States and China.

Europan Central Bank hasn’t many reasons to change its position at today’s meeting because the recent macro data report has been positive. Moreover, today’s last meeting of President Draghi’s should be directed on the Governing Council’s views on the economic and geopolitical outlook, especially should talk about Germany’s slowdown as well as on the loud criticism by some Europan Central Bank member of restarting asset purchases. 

The ECB’s policy meeting will be under the eyes overnight, but the market doesn’t anticipate much action after last month’s rate cut package.

On the other hand, the US Durable Orders, Purchasing Managers Index, and New Home Sales will also keep under focus.

Daily Support and Resistance

 S3 107.69

S2 108.12

S1 108.39

Pivot Point 108.55

R1 108.81

R2 108.97

R3 109.4

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY gained support above 108.280, the triple bottom level, which triggered a bullish reversal in the USD/JPY. At the moment, the bullish trend seems pretty strong, but the USD/JPY may find an immediate resistance at 108.900 area first. 

The MACD and Stochastics have diverted their direction to the bullish side, signaling chances of further buying in the pair. Today, the violation fo 108.270 can help us capture a quick sell position until 107.950. Whereas, buying can be seen until 108.900 level.

All the best!  

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, October 23 – Major Trade Setups – Stronger Dollar Plays

On Wednesday, the dollar rose versus its peer currencies as a risk spread ahead of the British parliament’s vote on the Withdrawal Agreement Bill, which will reflect light on when

On Wednesday, the dollar rose versus its peer currencies as a risk spread ahead of the British parliament’s vote on the Withdrawal Agreement Bill, which will reflect light on when

On Wednesday, the dollar rose versus its peer currencies as a risk spread ahead of the British parliament’s vote on the Withdrawal Agreement Bill, which will reflect light on when and how Britain will exit the Eurozone.

The British Pound currency was found on the selling track, although Prime Minister Boris Johnsons Brexit bill gained the parliamentary support, the government timeline of just three-days discussion on the bill was rejected.

The European Union Consumer Confidence is scheduled to release at 14:00 GMT. Hence, the European Central Bank, Andrea Enria, is expected to deliver the speech at an event in Madrid at 08:45GMT.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair came under pressure, and the pair is currently trading below the 1.2850. As well as, the pair failed to hit the critical support range on Tuesday, mainly due to Brexit uncertainty and delay. The 50-hour and 100-hour Moving Averages are found at 1.2940 and 1.2905, respectively.

The British Pound currency was found on the selling track, although Prime Minister Boris Johnsons Brexit bill gained the parliamentary support, the government timeline of just three-days discussion on the bill was rejected.

The chances of Britain departing the European Union before the deadline date of October 31 has dropped sharply, mainly due to parliamentary failure.

On the other hand, the headline came from the Prime Minster Boris Johnson office said that if the European Union agree to a delay until January, then the only way to shift from Britain’s Brexit crisis is a new election.

Forecast view, the ongoing uncertainty regarding Brexit could continue to push the GBP lower. Moreover, the pair is trading well below the 100-hour Moving Average for the 1st time since October 11.

It should be noted that the greenback may gain some haven buying due to the risk-off sentiment in the equity markets and trade uncertainty.



Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.264

S2 1.278

S1 1.2839

Pivot Point 1.292

R1 1.2979

R2 1.306

R3 1.32

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD has violated the bullish channel, which was supporting the pair around 1.2945. The formation fo a bearish engulfing candle is suggesting chances of a bearish reversal in the GBP/USD pair. 

On the lower side, the Sterling may find support at 1.2785 level, which also marks a double bottom on the 4-hour chart. Besides, the resistance stays at 1.2945 level. Consider staying bearish below 1.2920 today. 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

During the early Asian session, the EUR/USD currency pair hit the bearish track, having gained acceptance below the 100-day M.A. yesterday. The EUR currency came under selling pressure, mainly due to the decline in the GBP currency as the Brexit obstacle.

If talking about the past movement of EUR, Brexit certainty has sent the shared currency above the 100-day Moving Average on October 18. 

On the technical side, the EUR/USD currency pair found on the inverted hammer on Monday and ended well below the inverted hammers low of 1.1139 on Tuesday.

So, the EUR currency could drop further, notably if the German ten-year bond yields extend Tuesdays 4-basis-points decline to -0.38%. 

Moreover, the greenback may gain some haven buying, adding to the bearish pressures near the EUR/USD currency due to the risk-off sentiment in the equity markets.

On the other hand, the European Union Consumer Confidence is scheduled to release at 14:00 GMT. Hence, the European Central Bank, Andrea Enria, is expected to deliver the speech at an event in Madrid at 08:45GMT.


Daily Support and Resistance

    

S3 1.1056

S2 1.1096

S1 1.1113

Pivot Point 1.1135

R1 1.1153

R2 1.1175

R3 1.1214

EUR/USD – Trading Tips

The EUR/USD currency was trading 1.1116 and 1.1157 yesterday, hit the lowest range. As for today, the EUR will likely to continue consolidating in the narrow range of 1.1110 – 1.1150.

The EUR/USD is also facing double bottom support at 1.1110 area, and above this, we can expect to buy a trend in the EUR/USD until 1.1150 and 1.1180. On the other hand, selling can be expected below 1.1110 until the 1.1065 area. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair is flashing red and representing 0.16% declines on the day. As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair currently trading at 108.30, as the time of writing, the pair traveled from a high range of 108.51 to a low range of 108.25.

The USD/JPY currency pair may end with a much higher daily loss, as the four-hour chart is showing a head-and-shoulders breakdown. 

Such as Prime Minister Boris Johnsons Brexit bill gained the parliamentary support, but the government timeline of just three-days discussion on the bill was rejected.

Notably, Prime Minister Boris Johnson made a plan to meet with European Union leaders once again to discuss the timeline, and the chances of an early election are increasingly, but Brexit delayed beyond the elections. 

At the data front, the Oct Richmond Fed manufacturing survey rose firmly to +8 (est. -7, prior -9). Increases were comprehensive, with noted raises in employment and new orders with expectations edging higher in addition to stronger current conditions. United Step Sep existing home sales slid -2.2%m/m (est. -0.7%m/m). However, at 5.38mn (est. 5.45mn), the annualized level continues close to post record highs, and NAR’s chief economist continues to cite a shortage of stock and supply.

The United States’ two-year Treasury yields were moving between 1.59% and 1.63, whereas the ten-year yield traveled between 1.76% and 1.80%. Markets are expecting 22-basis points of a rate cut at the October 30 meeting and a terminal rate of 1.24% against % currently.


Daily Support and Resistance

S3 108.09

S2 108.31

S1 108.41

Pivot Point 108.53

R1 108.63

R2 108.75

R3 108.97

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

Recalling our previous update, the USD/JPY was trading in the bullish channel, which was extending support at 108.350. This bullish channel is now violated. As anticipated, the violation of 108.350 is extending bearish rally until the 108 level. 

The MACD and Stochastics are consistently pointing into the selling zone, signaling odds of a bearish bias.

The USD/JPY may attain a critical resistance at 108.57, along with support at 108.300. Today, the violation fo 108.270 can help us capture a quick sell position until 107.950. 

All the best!  

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, October 22 – Major Trade Setups – Brexit Parliamentary Votes Ahead! 

The Canadian dollar continued to trade bullish around three-month high on Tuesday as the market seems to celebrate the re-election of the Liberal government, 

“You did it, my friends. Congratulations

The Canadian dollar continued to trade bullish around three-month high on Tuesday as the market seems to celebrate the re-election of the Liberal government, 

“You did it, my friends. Congratulations

The Canadian dollar continued to trade bullish around three-month high on Tuesday as the market seems to celebrate the re-election of the Liberal government, 

“You did it, my friends. Congratulations,” Trudeau told supporters in Montreal early on Tuesday.

Despite this win, few of the traders are worried that the Liberals need to depend upon an opposition party to govern the government. 

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

Economic Calendar by TradingView

 

XAU/USD– Daily Analysis

On Tuesday, the yellow metal gold is trading mostly muted, pressed down by floating Asian shares that helped growth in trade discussions between the United States and China, but gained relief from a lack of certainty in the trade talk details.

The lack of clarity over Brexit has kept the gold prices inside a rang for almost two weeks. But on Saturday, some of the uncertainty cleared up from the market after the vote of U.K. parliament against PM Johnson’s Brexit Deal. Gold prices reacted to that news on Monday and showed a slight Bearish trend at the starting day of the week.

The precious metal gold continues to maintain a sideways range of $1,500 to $1,480. At the moment, the gold prices are taking a bullish turn as sellers seem to make profit-taking ahead of the Brexit Parliament vote today. 

Besides, the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) reduced the mortgage rate from 4.25% to 4.20%. The LPR is estimated based on the range over the medium-term Loan Facility each month. 

Gold may face a bearish trend if the yield drops alliance with a bullish breakout over 1.80%. Nevertheless, the yellow metal is displaying flexibility by neglecting losses. The gold mostly falls due to the Central Bank’s hawkish policy.


Daily Support and Resistance   

S3 1472.23

S2 1480.87

S1 1485.48

Pivot Point 1489.51

R1 1494.12

R2 1498.15

R3 1506.79

XAU/USD– Trading Tips

Gold prices drifted lower on Monday and but the Tuesday sessions are bringing bulls. Gold is poised to test resistance around 1,491, which is extended by the bullish trendline resistance. 

Gold may find support bear near the triple bottom support level of 1,480. The MACD histogram is marking in the red with a smooth trajectory that leads to consolidation. Today, consider staying bearish below 1,492 and bullish above 1,480. 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The Euro was little changed at $1.1152, while USD/JPY gained 0.2% to 108.61. The Euro traded mostly unchanged during the day on Monday, as traders didn’ find any reason to determine it’s direction. The market is presently a bit overstretched, so I would not be amazed at all to detect a bit of a pullback occurring.

The Euro has been comparatively low throughout the day on Monday, as we proceed to see much choppiness at the peak of a significant move. 

Studying the 4-hour chart, the 200-day EMA is also rising beyond the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement mark, a range that should bring much attention as well. With that being said, I am not a tremendous fan of attempting to jump in and begin selling instantly. We need to wait for a few checks; especially, the Brexit Parliament Vote is something than can trigger sharp volatility in the market. 


Daily Support and Resistance

R3: 1.1238

R2: 1.1197

R1: 1.1174

Pivot Point 1.1156

S1: 1.1133

S2: 1.1116

S3: 1.1075

EUR/USD – Trading Tips

The bullish engulfing candle over 1.1100 level pushes the currency pair towards the 1.116 level. The RSI and MACD are yet dispensing a buying bais, though the EUR/USD pair may exhibit retracement till 1.1130 ere dispensing a new bullish trend. 

Consider staying bearish below 1.1156 level today to target 1.1135 on the lower side.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY was closed at 108.598 after placing a high of 108.662 and a low of 108.290. The overall trend remained Bullish that day.

At 4:50 GMT, the Trade Balance for September from Japan showed a figure of -0.10T against the expectations of -0.17T and supported the Japanese Yen. The All industrial activities of Japan for September came in as 0.0% against the expectations of 0.1% at 9:30 GMT.

USD/JPY showed an upward trend in the beginning day of the week, the hopes that U.K. Parliament would approve the re-voting for the Brexit deal caused high-risk factors in the market, and traders started buying USD/JPY under that influence. But when the U.K. parliament denied taking another vote on the same issue, the pair’s upward trend suffered.

Additionally, on Monday, the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond Yield showed a growth of more than 1.5% and added in the upward trend of USD/JPY.

Furthermore, the White House economic advisor on Monday stated that US-China talks were going very well. If the written agreement would get signed in November, then the December tariff hikes could be avoided. This caused an increased demand for U.S. dollars in the market, and hence, USD/JPY surged.



Daily Support and Resistance

R3: 108.99

R2: 108.78

R1: 108.68

Pivot Point 108.57

S1: 108.47

S2: 108.36

S3: 108.15

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY continues to trade a bullish channel, which is extending support at 108.350. On the lower side, the violation of 108.350 can extend bearish rally until the 108 level. Overall, the MACD and Stochastics are holding in the selling zone, signaling chances of a bearish bias.

The USD/JPY may find an immediate resistance at 108.57, and that’s I think is a perfect level to open sell positions. On the upper side, violation of 108.57 can extend buying until 108.950

All the best!  

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, October 21 – Major Trade Setups – Brexit Deal Fails to Pass Parliament Vote! 

The U.S. Dollar Index slid 0.3% on the day to 97.28 on Friday. For the first time since December 2018, the index has been down for a third straight week.

The U.S. Dollar Index slid 0.3% on the day to 97.28 on Friday. For the first time since December 2018, the index has been down for a third straight week.

The U.S. Dollar Index slid 0.3% on the day to 97.28 on Friday. For the first time since December 2018, the index has been down for a third straight week.

The British pound rose 0.6% to $1.2973, posting a four-day rally. On Saturday, the British members of parliament voted to withhold approval of the Brexit deal. It is reported that the U.K. government has asked the European Union for a three-month delay to the Brexit deadline. This morning, the British pound retreated to $1.2919.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

 

  

XAU/USD– Daily Analysis

The safe-haven metal prices consolidating in the narrow range of $1,500 to $1,480 since last Monday, as of now the prices slightly dropped due to traders expected more transparency in the Brexit progress.

At the Brexit front, the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson attempted to have a meaningful vote on his Brexit deal on Saturday. Still, the U.K parliament declared an act withholding support until full legislation is passed. Therefore, Prime Minister Boris Johnson requested the European Union for a 3-months delay.

On the other hand, the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC changed the loan rate from 4.25% to 4.20%. The LPR is set based on the range above the medium-term Loan Facility rate every month. 

Gold may come under pressure if the yield ends consolidation with a bullish breakout above 1.80%. However, the yellow metal is showing resilience by ignoring losses. The gold mostly drops due to the Central Bank hawkish decisions.

The United States’ ten-year Treasury is currently unchanged around 1.75%. Interestingly, the benchmark yield is also lacking a clear directional bias since October 15. 

At the US-China trade war front, China’s Vice Premier Liu He stated that the China and United States are on the development track and that they completed the phase one agreement. 



Daily Support and Resistance

    

S3 1472.23

S2 1480.87

S1 1485.48

Pivot Point 1489.51

R1 1494.12

R2 1498.15

R3 1506.79

XAU/USD– Trading Tips

The precious metal gold prices remain to trade in the old range of 1,496 – 1,488. On the 4 hour chart, gold has formed an ascending triangle, which is extending substantial resistance at 1,495. Therefore, consider lingering bearish below 1,492 level to target 1,488 and 1,482. 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair hit the longest weekly rally since July 2018; the pair surged 1.22% last week. Having recovered by 0.54% and 0.33% in the previous two weeks. It should be noted that the reason behind last week’s bullish trends could be Brexit optimism headline and the resulting rally in the GBP.

At the Brexit front, the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson attempted to have a meaningful vote on his Brexit deal on Saturday. Still, the U.K parliament declared an act withholding support until full legislation is passed. So, Prime Minister Boris Johnson requested the European Union for a 3-months delay.

It should also be noted that the German Producer Price Index is scheduled to release at 06:00 GMT, and the Bundesbank’s monthly report is scheduled to release at 10:00 GMT. The EUR currency could face bearish pressure if the September PPI figures well below the forecast of -0.1% month-on-month, supporting slowdown fears. 

The shared currency may hit the bearish track if the European Union takes revenge in the return of the United States’ decision to impose tariffs on $7.5 billion worth of European imports.

    


Daily Support and Resistance

    

S3 1.1035

S2 1.1094

S1 1.1133

Pivot Point 1.1153

R1 1.1192

R2 1.1212

R3 1.1271

EUR/USD – Trading Tips

The bullish engulfing candle above 1.1100 level leads the EUR/USD pair towards the 1.116 level. The RSI and MACD are still showing a buying trend, but the pair may dispense some retracement until 1.1140 before showing a further bullish trend. 

Consider staying bullish over 1.1153 level today to target 1.1160 on the higher side.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair flashing red and representing 0.46% losses on the day, by the way, the GBP/USD currency pair currently trading at 1.2914. Additionally, the GBP currency could come under pressure further according to the forecasted by the options markets.

The GBP/USD currency pair options market is down on GBP currency since April. Moreover, the investors are adding bets for a decline in the Pound currency due to fading Brexit optimism.

One-month risk reversal (GBP1MRR), a gauge of calls to puts on the GBP fell by -1.70 on Friday, but it is currently found at -1.65. Friday’s figures were the weakest level in 6-months. On the positive note, the gauge had surged to a 21-month top of 0.125 on October 11.

The decline from October 11 high of 0.125 to October 17 low of -1.70 hints the investors were anticipating the United Kingdom parliament to put obstacles on Prime Minister Boris Johnson Brexit’s agreement.

As we know, the Super Saturday burned all the expectations due to the U.K parliament declared an act withholding support until full legislation is passed. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Boris Johnson requested the European Union for a 3-months delay.



Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2635

S2 1.2784

S1 1.2876

Pivot Point 1.2932

R1 1.3025

R2 1.3081

R3 1.3229

GBP/USD – Trading Tips

The GBP/USD is trading sharply bullish above but within a bullish channel. The bullish channel is giving support around 1.2900 level. The GBP/USD has formed a test bar pattern on the 4-hour chart, which is suggesting a bullish trend in the Cable.

The next support stays at 1.2900, and resistance is likely to remain at 1.3050 today. Consider staying bullish above 1.2932 today. 

All the best!  

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, October 18 – Major Trade Setups – Risk Appetite Rises Amid Brexit Deal! 

On Friday, the U.S. dollar trades bearish after the U.S. dollar slid to a nearly eight-week low in the prior session, keeping gold prices underpinned. 

European Union leaders collectively supported

On Friday, the U.S. dollar trades bearish after the U.S. dollar slid to a nearly eight-week low in the prior session, keeping gold prices underpinned. 

European Union leaders collectively supported

On Friday, the U.S. dollar trades bearish after the U.S. dollar slid to a nearly eight-week low in the prior session, keeping gold prices underpinned. 

European Union leaders collectively supported a new Brexit agreement with Britain on Thursday. The British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is facing a battle to ensure the U.K. parliament’s support for the deal if he is to get Britain outside of Europe on October 31.

The risk sentiment improved yesterday due to the announcement of the United Kingdom and the European Union that they looked the Brexit deal. Still, the Brexit deal concerns continued to increase because the markets are worrying about the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s probabilities of getting the approval for the Brexit deal by the U.K. parliament.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

XAU/USD– Daily Analysis

The safe-haven-metal prices dropped despite the weak China GDP data, and the drop came at the prices due to the markets were digesting headlines regarding Brexit and the US-China trade war.

U.S. Gold Futures for December delivery dropped 0.2% to $1,494.95 per ounce by 1:05 AM ET (05:05 GMT).

The risk sentiment improved yesterday due to the announcement of the United Kingdom and the European Union that they looked the Brexit deal. Still, the Brexit deal concerns continued to increase because the markets are worrying about the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s probabilities of getting the approval for the Brexit deal by the U.K. parliament.

Moreover, China’s 3rd-quarter GDP rose slower than expected. Chinese stocks dropped after the release of the data, but the safe-haven gold didn’t get any benefit from this.

Continuing trade tussle with the U.S. will keep under the eyes. Therefore, China said on Thursday that it believed to be in the last phase of the trade agreement with the United States. At the same time, China gave a warning that the United States has to cancel new tariffs for a full trade deal.

China’s Ministry of Commerce spokesman Gao Feng also said that we expect that both nations can continue to work together to more progress in discussions. As soon as possible, we will reach on a phased deal as well and make new progress with the help of canceling tariffs.


Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1462.89

S2 1476.9

S1 1484.38

Pivot Point 1490.91

R1 1498.39

R2 1504.92

R3 1518.93

XAU/USD– Trading Tips

Gold prices continue to trade in the same range of 1,496 – 1,488 as investors focus mostly stay on the Brexit deal and Sterling pairs. Technically, the precious metal gold has formed an ascending triangle on the 4-hour timeframe, which is extending substantial resistance at 1,495. Thus, consider staying bearish below 1,496 level to target 1,488 and 1,484. 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair found below the 100-day Moving Average of 1.1137, and the pair hit the high of 1.1140 on Thursday due to the headline that the United Kingdom and European Union officials teams (E.U.) have reached a Brexit departure deal.

The upward rally suddenly stopped near the 100-day Moving Average in the overnight session, possibly due to the concerns that the United Kingdom Parliament may reject the deal.

Looking forward, Prime Minister Boris Johnson will face a strongly divided parliament on Saturday, because all the opposition will try to delay the agreement in parliament and another election. Moreover, Boris Johnson Brexit deal already rejected once by the Northern Irish ally, the Democratic Unioost Party.

According to the entire situation, we can say that the chances of the United Kingdom parliament approving the Brexit deal by Boris Johnson are too low. The E.U. currency may remain below the 100-day Moving Average due to uncertainty surrounding the Brexit deal.

On the other hand, the equities could remain under pressure in the wake of sluggish China data; as of data, the final data released in the Asin session which was showed Chinas economy improved 6.0% from a year ago in the 3rd quarter, the weakest data sine 27.5 years.

The E.U. and Pound, both of the currencies, will take a buying trend if the Domcarative Unionist Party gives a softening statement about the Brexit deal on Saturday. In such a case, the EUR/USD currency pair could close above the 100-day Moving Average for the 1st time since July 18.


Daily Support and Resistance  

S3 1.0961

S2 1.1036

S1 1.1082

Pivot Point 1.1111

R1 1.1157

R2 1.1186

R3 1.1261

EUR/USD – Trading Tips

The EUR/USD has come out of the sideways range of 1.1020 – 1.1070. The pair is now holding above 1.1070 level, which is currently working as a support.

The bullish engulfing candle above 1.1100 level is suggesting the chances of further buying in the major currency pair. The RSI and MACD are indicating a buying trend, but the pair may show some correction until 1100 before showing a further bullish trend.

Consider staying bullish above 1.1100 level today to target 1.1160 on the upper side.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair hit the bearish track, representing a 0.30% declines on the day, mainly due to the fears that Prime Minister Boris Johnson could fail to approve the new Brexit deal in the United Kingdom parliament on coming Saturday.

As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair currently trading around the 1.2850, having hit a high of 1.2990 on Thursday. By the way, it was the highest level since May 13.

Moreover, the GBP currency took a strong buying trend during the European trading hours due to the report that the United Kingdom and the European Union have reached a Brexit departure deal.

The GBP/USD rose to 5-months highs, but it was short-timed because the optimism decreased on the realization that the United Kingdom parliament could deny the deal.

In an amazing Saturday meeting, the first since 1982, the parliament will vote on approving the new Brexit deal.

Looking forward, Prime Minister Boris Johnson will face a strongly divided parliament on Saturday, because all the opposition will try to delay the agreement in parliament and another election. Moreover, Boris Johnson Brexit deal already rejected once by the Northern Irish ally, the Democratic Unioost Party.


Daily Support and Resistance

    

S3 1.2396

S2 1.2636

S1 1.2764

Pivot Point 1.2877

R1 1.3004

R2 1.3117

R3 1.3357

GBP/USD – Trading Tips

The GBP/USD is trading within a bullish channel, which is extending support around 1.2850 level. The GBP/USD has from inside up bar pattern on the 4-hour chart, which is suggesting a bullish trend in the Cable.

The immediate support prevails at 1.2800, and resistance is likely to stay at 1.2900 today. Consider staying bullish above 1.2800, where the violation of 1.2870 can also lead the GBP/USD towards 1.2910. 

All the best!  

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, October 17 – Major Trade Setups – Philly Fed Index In Focus!

The I.C.E. U.S. Dollar Index slipped 0.1% on the day to 98.31. Later today, the Federal Reserve will release its latest economic report, the Beige Book.

The British Pound resumed

The I.C.E. U.S. Dollar Index slipped 0.1% on the day to 98.31. Later today, the Federal Reserve will release its latest economic report, the Beige Book.

The British Pound resumed

The I.C.E. U.S. Dollar Index slipped 0.1% on the day to 98.31. Later today, the Federal Reserve will release its latest economic report, the Beige Book.

The British Pound resumed its rally amid growing Brexit deal optimism, surging 1.2% to $1.2760, the highest level since May 16. It was reported that the U.K. and European Union negotiators would present a draft Brexit deal to national delegations later today. On the other hand, official data showed that U.K.’s jobless rate rose to 3.9% in the three months to August (3.8% expected). September C.P.I. will be reported later today (+1.8% on-year expected).

The Euro edged up 0.1% to $1.1034. The Z.E.W. German Current Situation Index dropped to -25.3 in October (-23.6 expected, -19.9 in September), the lowest level since April 2010. USD/JPY climbed 0.4% to 108.81.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

XAU/USD– Daily Analysis

the safe-haven metal prices dropped despite the U.S.S. weak retail sales data and hinted the higher possibility of a rate cut from the Federal Reserve.

Data showed retail sales in the United States dropped by 0.3% during September, their highest decline since last November.

According to forecasting, investors are now expecting an 88.7% probability of a 25 basis-points rate cut at the Federal Reserve policy meeting at the end of the month.

Brexit progress still under the eyes. The report came from B.B.C. official that the United Kingdom and the European Union will not declare the deal on Brexit today. News from other sources said that the deal could still be announced at the end of this week.

Fresh U.S.-China tensions due to Hong Kong received some attention this week but failed to boost gold prices today.



Daily Support and Resistance    

S3 1457.17

S2 1471.83

S1 1481.27

Pivot Point 1486.49

R1 1495.93

R2 1501.15

R3 1515.81

XAU/USD– Trading Tips

The precious metal gold hasn’t improved much in the past several days since it succeeded in holding under 1,497 handle. Neutral sentiment appears sturdy enough to hold gold within 1,492 – 1,477 range. 

Traders may retain selling trades under 1,494 area today. In the case of a bullish violation of 1,492, the market may witness gold flying towards 1,497 area.

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair failed to cross the critical resistance level and still hold below the 1.1085/90 level, despite benefiting from the sluggish U.S. data and change in European Central Bank policy maker’s bias. As of writing, the currency pair is currently trading at 1.1077.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index took further disappointment, in terms of September month Retail sales, that sent the pair down to fresh 7-week low on Wednesday.

On the other hand, the policymakers of the European Union continue to struggling to declare a final Brexit deal with the United Kingdom and extended the discussions to Thursday before holding the 2-day European Union summit. The British policymakers didn’t get the support of the Democratic Unionist Party (D.U.P.) so far in the wake of the deal that could be agreed with the European Union.

Risk sentiment in the market is downbeat due to the difficulties between the United States and China trade deal and Brexit uncertainty with the stocks and bonds in Asia.

Whereas the Brexit is the leading cause for the pair movement and the market right now, moreover, the 2nd data from the United States and Federal reserve coming talks will likely entertaining traders.

    


Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.0934

S2 1.0998

S1 1.1036

Pivot Point 1.1061

R1 1.11

R2 1.1124

R3 1.1188

EUR/USD – Trading Tips

The EUR/USD continues trading in the sideways range of 1.1020 – 1.1070. Lately, the pair violated the horizontal resistance level of 1.1050, which is likely to push the EUR/USD pair towards 1.1100 today. 

Taking a look at the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD is rising in an upward channel. The bullish channel is extending support at 1.100, but before this, the previously violated figure of 1.1050 can extend bullish rally until 1.1100. Consider staying bullish above 1.1061 today.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The cable pair consolidating in the narrow range below five-months highs The GBP/USD currency pair hit the highest level of 1.2800 since May from the intraday declines of the 1.2655 area on Wednesday, mainly due to positive Brexit headlines. 

The British Pound was additionally depressed by the report in which said that the technical Brexit discussions have stuck in the obstacle, and the Brexit deal seems impossible until the United Kingdom moves. Meanwhile, the Wednesday disappointment from the new consumer numbers left a little impact on the pair intraday two-way price swings.

On the final notes, the statement came from the French President Macron, that Brexit deal was on the last track, provided substantial relief to the GBP buyers. Moreover, the German Chancellor Angela Market also said that the Brexit discussions are now at the end of the story and gave further support to the GBP.


Daily Support and Resistance

 S3 1.2341

S2 1.2563

S1 1.2691

Pivot Point 1.2785

R1 1.2913

R2 1.3006

R3 1.3228

GBP/USD – Trading Tips

The GBP/USD currency pair raised a little from the daily highs and now looks like that the pair entered in the phase of consolidation. That is seemingly caused by the investors avoiding from putting any further bullish bets due to the crucial European Council Summit, starting from today, which will finally decide the United Kingdom will leave the European Union with a deal or not on October 31.

The GBP/USD is testing the firm resistance market of 1.285 and also have formed bearish candles followed by a strong bullish trend. This can drive bearish movement in the market. Therefore, consider the trend bearish below1.2860 mark, and the GBP/USD can stay bearish until 1.2754 and 1.2736 areas.

All the best!  

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, October 16 – Major Trade Setups – Brace for Price Action CPI & Retail Sales!

The ICE U.S. Dollar Index slipped 0.1% on the day to 98.31. Later today, the Federal Reserve will release its latest economic report, the Beige Book.

The British pound resumed

The ICE U.S. Dollar Index slipped 0.1% on the day to 98.31. Later today, the Federal Reserve will release its latest economic report, the Beige Book.

The British pound resumed

The ICE U.S. Dollar Index slipped 0.1% on the day to 98.31. Later today, the Federal Reserve will release its latest economic report, the Beige Book.

The British pound resumed its rally amid growing Brexit deal optimism, surging 1.2% to $1.2760, the highest level since May 16. It was reported that the U.K. and European Union negotiators would present a draft Brexit deal to national delegations later today. On the other hand, official data showed that U.K.’s jobless rate rose to 3.9% in the three months to August (3.8% expected). September CPI will be reported later today (+1.8% on-year expected).

The euro edged up 0.1% to $1.1034. The ZEW German Current Situation Index dropped to -25.3 in October (-23.6 expected, -19.9 in September), the lowest level since April 2010. USD/JPY climbed 0.4% to 108.81.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

XAU/USD– Daily Analysis

The safe-haven metal prices flashing green as traders priced in the latest news regarding Brexit and Sino-US trade worries. The Sino-U.S. trade tensions once again escalated, as China now wants the United States to reduce tariff before singing the purchase of $50 billion of American agriculture products under the round one trade deal touted by the U.S. President Donald Trump.

Brexit negotiations between the United Kingdom and the European Union are reaching a decisive stage. Reports came that a deal between the two sides may be near, but it was still unclear if London could avoid delaying its departure, which is due on October 31.

The United States will not go ahead with the hike in tariffs on nearly $250 billion of Chinese products from 25% to 30%, which is often indicative. Trump and Xi are due to meet in the interests of the APEC conference next November. The mid-December tariff on approximately $160 billion of Chinese products, is what is presently a crucial decision for both nations. 


Daily Support and Resistance

    S3 1443.07

S2 1464.37

S1 1472.78

Pivot Point 1485.67

R1 1494.08

R2 1506.97

R3 1528.27

XAU/USD– Trading Tips

Gold continues to exhibit choppy trading in a small area of 1,487 – 1,477. A bullish breakout of 1,487 can extend buying until 1,494 level whereas, the bearish breakout of 1,477 level is likely to continue selling until 1,464 level. 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair trading above the 50-day moving average for the 3rd consecutive day and failed to hit the critical level resistance level of 1.1075 despite Brexit optimism.

As of writing, the currency pair is currently trading near 1.1030, found on the bearish track on the day in the wake of U.S. monthly retail sales data. By the way, the 50-day Moving Average is now located at 1.1038.

The shared currency rose from 1.0991 on Tuesday, strengthening the bullish breakout. The bullish bias was hinted by Friday’s bullish breakout, a trendline connecting June 25 and August 13 highs. However, the pair took a buying trend, possibly due to the news of the United Kingdom, and the European Union is closing on a Brexit deal.

At the Brexit front, the Brititan Prime Minister Boris Johnson needs the excellent support of Democratic Unionist Parties to pass the Brexit agreement in Parliament.

However, the Democratic Unionist Party is playing rough. The party’s leader has dismissed the statement that it has agreed to support such agreement wherein Northern Ireland will stay in the United Kingdom customs area but adhere to the Europan Union customs rules on tariffs.

The United States retail sales data is scheduled to release at12:30 GMT, is expected to show the retail sales growth slowed to 0.3% in September from August’s reading of 0.4%. Sluggish data will support the dovish Federal Reserve expectations and probably will start the selling trend in the greenback.



Daily Support and Resistance

    S3 1.091

S2 1.0972

S1 1.1005

Pivot Point 1.1034

R1 1.1067

R2 1.1096

R3 1.1158

EUR/USD – Trading Tips

The EUR/USD trade in the restricted range of 1.1020 – 1.1060. The Euro has violated descending trend line resistance, making it weaker against the greenback since late June. That’s suggesting a correction higher is forthcoming.  

On the 4-hour chart above, the EUR/USD is mounting in a bullish channel, which is supporting the pair above 1.1000 level. The daily resistance stays at 1.1050. Consider staying bullish above 1.1030 level to target 1.1050 and 1.1070. On the flip side, the pair can remain bearish below 1.1030 until 1.0976 and 1.0856. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair has crossed the level above its 200-day Moving Average resistance for the first time since May 13. Probably, the pair will further increase if Britain’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson gets the support of the Democratic Unionist Party for the approval of the Brexit agreement in the Parliament.

Whereas the Europan Union (E.U.) and the United Kingdom are closing on Brexit agreement, the Democratic Unionist Party is still aggressive. Nevertheless, the Democratic Unionist Party is playing rough. The party’s leader Arlene Foster has dismissed the statement that it has agreed to support such agreement wherein Northern Ireland will stay in the United Kingdom customs area but adhere to the Europan Union customs rules on tariffs.

We all want to make this deal, but it must be a deal in which you have to consider the economic and legal integrity of the British, and that means the whole United Kingdom, included Northern Ireland.

It should also be noted that the Democratic Unionist Party ten lawmakers will play a key role in deciding that the Prime Minster Boris Johnson can pass any agreement in Parliament or not.

The GBP could come under pressure if Boris Johnson does not succeed in getting support from the Democratic Unionist Party. In consequence, the GBP/USD currency pair may drop to the level below the 200-day Moving Average, presently trading at 1.2710.

On the other hand, the cable pair may also take fresh hints from the United Kingdom Consumer Price Index, which is scheduled to release at 08:30 GMT.


Daily Support and Resistance

   

S3 1.199

S2 1.2289

S1 1.2469

Pivot Point 1.2588

R1 1.2768

R2 1.2887

R3 1.3185

GBP/USD – Trading Tips

Technically, the GBP/USD extends to trade upward on the back of a more solid Sterling. The pair have achieved a 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.2692 and now trading over this level, scanning for a substantial fundamental reason to define the next movement.  

On the upper side, the GBP/USD is expected to meet resistance around 1.2800. Breakout 1.2800 can trigger more buying until 1.12849. Let’s keep an eye on 1.2695 now to take quick trade opportunities.

All the best!  

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, October 14 – Major Trade Setups – U.S. China Partial Trade Settlement Plays! 

On Monday, the market sentiment remains risk-on as traders weight the U.S. – China partial trade settlement. Traders, the exports of China to the United States declined 10.7% in terms

On Monday, the market sentiment remains risk-on as traders weight the U.S. – China partial trade settlement. Traders, the exports of China to the United States declined 10.7% in terms

On Monday, the market sentiment remains risk-on as traders weight the U.S. – China partial trade settlement. Traders, the exports of China to the United States declined 10.7% in terms of the greenback. While the U.S. imports fell to 26.4% through that era, a Chinese customs spokesperson announced on Monday.

Trade disputes with the United States have begun to influence Chinese trade, although the latest Sino-U.S. trade discussions have produced positive outcomes in some fields. 

The recent development surrounding the trade deal between the United States and China indicate a hard way ahead for the United States and China trade officials as any actual agreement didn’t sign yet that could finish the trade war. However, the market is likely to trade risk-on sentiment to price in positive developments. 

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair is still trading below the fifty-day moving average and having faced rejection at the critical level of 1.1060, even after the positive news came regarding Sino-US trade truce.

The United States President Donald Trump announced a partial trade deal; due to this, the greenback currency slipped lower, and the risky assets gained bullish momentum.

Meantime, the United States decided to delay taxes increases on $250 billion in Chinese goods. In contrast, the dragon nation is ready to buy $40 to $50 billion in United States agriculture products.

Moreover, Goldman Sachs announced there is a 60% possibility that the 15% tariffs will impose, but not sooner, probably in early 2020.

According to forecast, the EUR/USD currency pair could hit again to 50-day Moving Average if the Eurozone Industrial Production for August, which is scheduled to release at 09:00 GMT, beats estimates figures by a big range. The markets may get hints from the speech by the Europan Central Banks, which is scheduled to deliver at 07:15 GMT.



Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.091

S2 1.0972

S1 1.1005

Pivot Point 1.1034

R1 1.1067

R2 1.1096

R3 1.1158

EUR/USD – Trading Tips

The EUR/USD currency pair consolidating in the narrow range of 1.1030 and below the 50-day Moving Average at 1.1044, because prominent investment banks reported concerns regarding the reliability of the new trade deal.

The EUR/USD is trading in a bullish channel, which can be seen on the 4-hour chart above. The bullish channel is keeping the EUR/USD supported above 1.1000 level with resistance at 1.1050. Consider staying bullish above 1.100 level to target 1.1050 and 1.1070. Selling can be seen below 1.1000 until 1.0976 and 1.0856. 

 

AUD/USD– Daily Analysis

AUD/USD currency pair consolidates in the narrow range around 0.6780, mainly due to China’s mixed trade data. China’s trade figures in the Chinese Yuan (CNY) terms represented that Trade Surplus expanded to CNY 280 billion during September from 239.6 billion flashed in August. Additional details on the same format mention Exports declining -0.7% against +2.6% previous, whereas Imports are falling -6.2% against -2.6% earlier.

On the U.S. Dollar (USD) front, the headline Trade Balance figures increased by $39.65 billion against $33.30 billion estimates whereas Imports and Exports follow the suit of CNY figures. Imports plummet 8.5% YoY against -5.2% expected while Exports lag behind -3.0% market consensus to -3.2% on the year-on-year basis.

Therefore, the Australian dollar traders didn’t get a clear picture of the Chinese trade situation, whereas the overall sentiment remains bullish due to the United States and China trade truce.

The recent development surrounding the trade deal between the United States and China indicate a hard way ahead for the United States and China trade officials as any actual agreement didn’t sign yet that could finish the trade war. However, the market is likely to trade risk-on sentiment to price in positive developments. 

China recently rejected the U.S. ambassador visa, which could hyper the Trump administration toward China during the 2nd phase of talks. Eventually, all investors will keep their eyes on the fresh clue from the trade deal between the United States and China as the first phase is cleared.



Daily Support and Resistance

S3 0.6712

S2 0.6752

S1 0.6773

Pivot Point 0.6792

R1 0.6812

R2 0.6831

R3 0.6871

AUD/USD– Trading Tips

The AUDUSD is trading bearish after testing the double top level of 06800. Below this level, the AUDUSD has formed a tweezers top pattern, which suggests bearish bias among traders. This could trigger a bearish trend in the AUD/USD below 0.6800 level. 

On the lower side, the AUD/USD may gain support at 0.6700, the 38.2% Fibo level, and 50% retracement at 0.6750. Let’s look for selling traders until these levels are met today. 

 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

GBP/USD currency pair hit the bearish track and representing 0.37% losses on the day, mainly due to declining certainty for the Brexit deal. By the way, the pair is presently trading around 1.26, having hit a high of 1.2645 in Asian trading hours.

The GBP currency still on the selling track, due to the comment by Britain and the European Union on Sunday that much work will be required to secure a deal on Britain’s departure from the bloc.

Therefore, the risks of the GBP selling sentiment in the Europan session is high. However, if the news flow will turn positive, then the contrary view in the Sterling could be reversed. Kathy Lien from B.K. Asset Management observes that the Pound is rising to levels above 1.28 ahead of the Brexit deadline of October 31.

On the other hand, the eyes remain on the trade talks between the U.S. and China. Such as both sides completed the one stage of the bigger trade deal on Friday. However, Chinese media told that China would not be more confident about future negotiations.

    


Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.199

S2 1.2289

S1 1.2469

Pivot Point 1.2588

R1 1.2768

R2 1.2887

R3 1.3185

GBP/USD – Trading Tips

Technically, the GBP/USD has disrupted the double top resistance mark of 1.2536, and this point can keep the Cable bullish over this point until 1.2760. 

At the moment, the GBP/USD is trading above 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.2592. Breakout of this market can trigger further retracement until 1.2525. Let’s keep an eye on 1.2585 today to capture quick trader opportunities.

All the best! 

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, October 10 – Major Trade Setups – Turkey Triggers Safe Haven Demand!

Earlier today, the financial markets experience extreme volatility after Turkey attacked Syrian rebels. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which is lead by Kurds, said that civilian areas were targeted by

Earlier today, the financial markets experience extreme volatility after Turkey attacked Syrian rebels. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which is lead by Kurds, said that civilian areas were targeted by

Earlier today, the financial markets experience extreme volatility after Turkey attacked Syrian rebels. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which is lead by Kurds, said that civilian areas were targeted by Turkish warplanes and caused a massive panic in the region.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that the operation named “Peace Spring” has launched with the collaboration of the Syrian National Army against the Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK) & Daesh Terrorists. He added that the operation was launched to create a “safe zone” to house Syrian refugees after clearing the area from Kurdish militias.

 

Overall, the focus stays on the GDP and CPI figures from the United Kingdom and the United States.  

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair hit the bullish track and struggling to catch break above the crucial level of around 1.1000 due to trade optimism. Moreover, the EUR/USD currency pair could extend its gains if the European Central Bank meeting declares the statement unexpectedly less dovish. 

As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair took 0.16% gains in the Asian hours as traders sold greenback on trade optimism and announce that the United States is planning to start the currency deal with China. On the other hand, the report came that President Donald Trump may issue a license that will permit a few companies of the United States to supply products to Chinas Huawei.

The pair is currently trading at 1.0987, 21-day moving average. The technical line has been closing bullish move since October 3, and this level is considered as a support for the buyers. A close above the key Moving Average would open the doors for a stronger corrective bullish move, possibly to 1.1110 (September 13 high).

At the ECB front, as we know, the European Central Bank meeting regarding monetary policy is scheduled to happen at 11:30 GMT.

The Central Bank reduced its deposit rate by the 10-basis-points to -0.50% during September and also announced a fresh bond-buying plan that is scheduled to start from November.

Distinctly, the EUR currency may take a buying trend if the ECB meeting underscores the growing dissent within the Governing Council. Moreover, the EUR may come under pressure and hit the bearish bias if the meeting reports increased odds for more rate cut.

The Federal Reserve September meeting released on Wednesday and showed the rising attention between policymakers that markets continue to expecting more rate cuts than the U.S. Central Bank will deliver this year.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.0904

S2 1.0938

S1 1.0956

Pivot Point 1.0973

R1 1.099

R2 1.1008

R3 1.1042

EUR/USD – Trading Tips

The single currency Euro is taking a sharp bullish turn in the wake of a weaker dollar. The pair is facing support at 1.0975, along with resistance at 1.1025. The MACD and Stochastics are also supporting the bullish bias, especially after the EUR/USD has a bullish crossover of the 50-period EMA today. The bullish breakout of 1.1025 can extend buying until 1.1075 today.

 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

During the early Asian session, the USD/JPY currency pair hit the high level following a drop to the 107.00 level. Later, the USD/JPY prices recovered to the 1-weeks high in the last hour.

The USD/JPY currency pair is found on a weekly bullish track after placing a low of 106.560 during the last week. Most of the buying came on sentiments that China is still ready to make a deal with the United States despite the recent development.

The USD/JPY currency pair was marked on the bearish level earlier this Thursday in the nervousness due to the high-level United States and China trade negotiations. The sharp uptick in the pair came as the United States is planning to enter into a currency deal with China as a part of the partial trade deal, although the depressed greenback prices action kept a lid on any strong follow-through.

Despite the positive trade news and the less dovish Federal Reserve meeting minutes, the U.S. Dollar struggled to increase any traction and still on the sideways due to the weaker tone surrounding the United States Treasury bond yields.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 106.36

S2 106.88

S1 107.17

Pivot Point 107.4

R1 107.69

R2 107.92

R3 108.44

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

Consider the safe-haven appeal triggered by Turkish news, the USD/JPY is holding below the healthy resistance level of 107.700. There has been a sideways movement in the market, as traders are confused about whether to buy JPY on safe-haven or to sell it on U.S. – China trade deal sentiments. 

The USD/JPY may notice a critical resistance at 107.7500, which is extended by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels. On the lower side, the USD/JPY may find support at 106.920. The bullish violation of 107.750 can drive USD/JPY towards 108.04 and 108.50. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair found on the recovery track after the bearish session, the pair currently fluctuating between the 1.2225 and 1.2230 area. Cable recovered to the 1.2300 in the wake of a report that the Europan Union is ready to allow a time-limit on the Irish backstop. 

Moreover, the Northen Irish Democratic Unionist party refused the European Union concession on Brexit, and the Europan Union official denied the report and in the consequences, sent the cable pair into the negative area.

On the other hand, the buyers still showing some resilience below the 1.2200 round-figure marks, and some repeated greenback weakness supported limit any further declines. Besides this, the Wednesday FOMC meeting doing little to depress the hopes for yet additional interest rate cut during October. The continued decline in the U.S. Treasury bond yields weakened demand for the U.S. Dollar and turned out to be one of the key factors giving insignificant support to the major.

Moreover, the United Kingdom economic docket could further influence the more extensive market sentiment surrounding the GBP and give some brief trading impetus

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2046

S2 1.2139

S1 1.2175

Pivot Point 1.2233

R1 1.2269

R2 1.2327

R3 1.2421

GBP/USD – Trading Tips

On Thursday, the GBP/USD trade at 1.2233 right above the strong double bottom support level of 1.2220. The overall trend appears sideways as the GBP/USD can proceed to trade within 1.2280 – 1.2108 area. Nevertheless, the bearish breach may prolong the GBP/USD selling until 1.2170 following slight retracements.

All the best! 

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, October 09 – Major Trade Setups – Fed Meeting Minutes on the Radar

The U.S. dollar traded slightly bearish ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes report today. The downward trend was escalated when Inflation data from American session came on board. 

The U.S.

The U.S. dollar traded slightly bearish ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes report today. The downward trend was escalated when Inflation data from American session came on board. 

The U.S.

The U.S. dollar traded slightly bearish ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes report today. The downward trend was escalated when Inflation data from American session came on board. 

The U.S. inflation data showed a drop in September to -0.3% at 17:30 GMT. This release made the fears of the U.S. recession to re-emerge in the market along with increased chances of further rate cuts by Federal Reserve in the next meeting. 

On Tuesday, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman, Geng Shuang, denied that the government abused human rights in that region and said that the United States should withdraw the relevant decision and stop interference in ‘sChina’s internal affairs. He also stressed that China would take forceful measures against actions that affect the security, national sovereignty, and development interests of the country.

The report about a possible ban on Visa of Chinese ‘communists’ officials linked to the abuses in Xinjiang from the United States gave a boost to the tensions caused by the blacklist report.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’sLet’s took at these fundamentals.

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

EUR/USD currency pair hit the bullish level on the day and ahead of Federal Reserve minutes. As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair is presently trading at 1.0963.

Moreover, the buying tone around the Greenback declined, sent the EUR/USD pair from the 200-hour M.A. support at 1.00947, mainly due to comments by the Federal Reserves Chairman Powell that central Bank balance sheet, which was shrinking until August, but soon will grow again. The Federal Reserve chairman Powell also gave the surety for another rate cut during this month.

Today, the Federal Reserve meeting minutes from its September rate decision is scheduled to happen at 18:00 GMT. Recalling, the U.S. Central Bank cut the rate by 25-basis-points in September. Markets considered this rate cut as a hawkish policy because policymakers were expecting a further rate cut from the FED, and having just 0.25% rate cut was a bit disappointing. 

The Greenback may find a buying track due to a recent drop in the EUR/USD pair, which pushed the pair below recent lows near 1.0879. On the forecast side, the possibility of a rate cut by 25 basis points on October 30 marks above 80%. Moreover, nearly 87 basis points of rate cuts are expected by January 2021 according to forecast.

Daily Support and Resistance    

S3 1.0854

S2 1.0909

S1 1.0932

Pivot Point 1.0964

R1 1.0988

R2 1.102

R3 1.1075

EUR/USD – Trading Tips

The EUR/USD currency pair may hit the resistance of the 21-day moving average at 1.0988 if the Federal Reserve meeting shows the consensus between the policymakers in the wake of the further rate cut. The EUR/USD has violated 1.0970 support, and the pair may head further lower towards 1.09200 and 1.0882 later today. Consider staying bearish below 1.0964 area today.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair is presently trading around 107.00, hit the bearish track, and faced rejection at 107.30 in overnight trading. By the way, the USD/JPY currency pair consolidate in the narrow range due to intensifying trade tension and risk aversion in the equity markets.

The U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday as tensions between the U.S. and China escalated ahead of the critical trade talk scheduled to happen at the end of the week. The U.S. threatened to blacklist the Chinese companies over human rights violations in Uighur province.

The United States stocks dropped on Tuesday due to tension between the United States, and China intensified in the wake of high-level trade talk scheduled to happen later this week. President Donald Trump’s decision to levy a visa restriction on Chinese officials, including the blacklisting of Chinese firms in the wake of china’s treatment with Muslim minorities. With this, the threats increased into coming talks between the United States and China.

China asked Washington to withdraw its decision and gave warning to retaliation. The United States said that the plan to blacklist the Chinese companies were unrelated to trade talks. As a consequence, the S&P 500 index dropped by 1.56%, pushing the traditional safe-haven assets higher.

At this moment, the futures on the S&P 500 are showing 0.21% gains, which could reduce some bullish pressures around the Japanese Yen and may push the USD/JPY pair higher.

Moreover, the yield on the United States ten-year treasury note is showing signs of life. At press time, the return is trading at 1.54%, indicating a 4-basis point increase on the low of 1.50%. Hence, the Greenback may find some support.



Daily Support and Resistance

S3 105.83

S2 106.47

S1 106.77

Pivot Point 107.11

R1 107.41

R2 107.75

R3 108.39

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading slightly bullish ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes. The USD/JPY may find an immediate resistance at 107.500, along with support around 106.920. The bullish breakout of 107.450 can lead the USD/JPY prices towards 107.800. On the lower side, the support stays around 106.90. The MACD is hovering in the buying territory. Considering this, we should look for buying trades over 107.11. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD hit the bearish track, and the pair is found trading in the tight range just above 1-month lows of 1.2203 set in the previous session.

The recent downside pressure surrounding the GBP raised the activity on Tuesday. Most of the trading activity and sharp slum in GBP came after the report that Brexit talks between the UK and the E U were very close to separation.

While the German Chancellor Angela Merker told the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson through the phone call that the U.K. should keep the Northen Ireland in the Europan Union customs union. With this, the odds of the no-Brexit deal raises. 

The cable pair declined to 1.2200 levels; this is the lowest level since September 04. President Donald Trump’s decision to levy a visa restriction on Chinese officials, including blacklisting of Chinese firms in the wake of china treatment with Muslim minorities, threats increased incoming talks between the United States and China.

Eventually, the progress sparked a fresh flow of global risk-aversion trade, which supported the Greenback’s relative safe-haven status against its British counterpart.

Meanwhile, the greenback buyers were not successful in gaining on the positive move overnight amid moderately weaker tone around the United States Treasury bond yields.



Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2025

S2 1.2133

S1 1.2177

Pivot Point 1.224

R1 1.2285

R2 1.2348

R3 1.2455

GBP/USD – Trading Tips

The GBP/USD traded sharply bearish, falling from1.2281 to 1,2200 area amid odds of hard Brexit. The GBP/USD has broken the double bottom level at 1.2225 and has settled a range of candles beneath this level, which is validating the bearish breakout.

Today, traders should consider opening a sell position only below 1.224 and bullish positions above the same level to target 1.2276 on the upper side while bearish target stays at 1.2140. 

All the best! 

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, October 08 – Major Trade Setups – U.S. China Trade Talks In Focus! 

On Tuesday, the U.S. dollar trades to trade choppy to slightly bullish on the back of no significant economic figures. The range of light United States numbers during the past

On Tuesday, the U.S. dollar trades to trade choppy to slightly bullish on the back of no significant economic figures. The range of light United States numbers during the past

On Tuesday, the U.S. dollar trades to trade choppy to slightly bullish on the back of no significant economic figures. The range of light United States numbers during the past week increased uncertainties on the assumption that the United States economy will be further elastic as compared to the other economies and pushed investors to start pricing in another rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

Powell Stressed that an Independent Central Bank could make decisions in the long-term best interests of the economy without regard to the political pressure. He also quoted that “the management of Central Bank must be free from the dangers of control by politics and by private interests, singly or combined.”

In previous days, President Trump has criticized the Federal Reserve for not Lowering its Interest Rates enough. In reply to that criticism, Jerome Powell’s statement about central bank independency has raised the possibility that the Fed might not cut its rate further in the next policy meeting.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair consolidating in a narrow range near 1.0975, as we know, the pair were representing 0.06% losses on Monday. It should be noted that the EUR/USD currency pair hit the rejection at the 21-day moving average for the 3rd straight day yesterday. Therefore the figures are presently found at 1.0992. 

On the economic data front, all eyes stay on the German industrial production data, which is scheduled to release at 06:00 GMT, and expectations are high that the German Industrial Production data dropped 0.3% month on month during August, having fallen 0.6% in the previous month. The final number is anticipated to release at -2.7% versus -4.2% in July.

German Factory Orders declined by 0.6% month-on-month in August – the 2nd-straight monthly decline, due to weaker demand from domestic consumers, the official data showed on Monday. 

Additionally, the headline IHS Markit and BME Germany Manufacturing PMI for February, a single-figure picture of the performance of the manufacturing economy, had marked well below 50, indicating contraction.

The statement came that the German recession is generally accepted at this time and price. Therefore, the EUR/USD currency pair will likely remain resilient if the Geman Industrial Production fell according to expectations. The pair may take hints from the United States Producer Price index and comments by the Feral Reserves President Powell.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.0901

S2 1.0939

S1 1.0956

Pivot Point 1.0978

R1 1.0994

R2 1.1017

R3 1.1056

EUR/USD – Trading Tips

On the technical aspect, the EUR/USD may gain support at the critical trading point of 1.0960 level. The MACD and RSI are staying in the bullish territory, implying probabilities of a bullish reversal. 

A bearish breach of the 1.0967 level can spread selling until 1.0885. While buying can be seen above 1.0960 till 1.1035 levels. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair found on the recovery track and traded well in the striking distance of the overnight swing high.

After a bearish break opening at the begin of a new trading week, the USD/JPY currency pair has managed to recover positive traction and returned near 80-pips from an intraday low level of 106.65. Positive figures in the United States treasury bond yields propped the greenback demand and turned out to be one of the critical factors that started the initial support of the uptick.

The momentum gained another boost from some positive comments by the White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow, who said that the U.S. was available for China plans and proposals, but the Chinese companies were not there. Meanwhile, Kudlow noted further that the United States trade officials could make progress between the Sino-US trade war.

The USD/JPY currency pair is trading steady ahead of Fed Chair Speech and PPI figures today as investors seem hesitant to enter the market ahead of the news release. Besides, the highly-expected United States and China trade negotiations in Washington are also keeping the USD/JPY in check ahead of Top-level negotiations scheduled on Thursday.

Meanwhile, Tuesday’s U.S. economic docket, highlighting the release of Producer Price Index (PPI), is under focus, and all eyes will keep on it for fresh impetus. Moreover, the market risk-sentiment and the greenback prices progress could further produce some meaningful trading opportunities together.

Daily Support and Resistance    

S3 105.78

S2 106.47

S1 106.85

Pivot Point 107.16

R1 107.54

R2 107.85

R3 108.54

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Monday, the USD/JPY opened with a bearish gap, which is already covered by the end of the day. The USD/JPY pair soared to complete a 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 107.450.  

The USD/JPY is now trading above 50 periods EMA, which is placing a bullish pressure on the USD/JPY at 106.900. The MACD is looming in the buying zone. However, the live histogram is smaller than the previous one, which shows the odds of a bearish reversal. Consider trading bearish below 107.450 to target 106.900. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair flashing red and still consolidating in the narrow range just below the 1,2300 handles due to renewed Brexit pessimism. 

The cable found exhibited some intraday bounce during the start of a week. In contrast, a shortage of any substantial progress leads the pair to quickly hit the fresh low level near the 1.2335 level, which is also marked as an important level by 200-period EMA on the 4-hourly chart. 

Considering that the bloc’s leaders observe the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johosn’s new Brexit plan is not enough, uncertainties related to Briaitan exits from the Europan Union, leaving some pressure on the GBP.

The modest pickup in the greenback demand, benefited by the positive rebound in the United States Treasury bond yields and positive trade-related headlines, further helped to the pairs downtick. While, the White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow, who said that the U.S. was available for China plans and proposals, but the Chinese companies were not there, drove some haven appeal in the market.


Daily Support and Resistance    

S3 1.2205

S2 1.2253

S1 1.2271

Pivot Point 1.2302

R1 1.2319

R2 1.2351

R3 1.24

GBP/USD – Trading Tips

On Tuesday, the trading in GBP/USD has changed much as the cable continues to trade bearish. On the upper side, 1.2340 level is extending it a substantial resistance now. The 50 EMA is expected to maintain support at 1.2275, but the new bearish movement in the GBP/USD is likely to challenge the support zone. Consider opening a sell position only below 1.2275 level today. 

All the best! 

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, October 07 – Major Trade Setups – Fed Chair Powell Speak! 

On Monday, the U.S. dollar continues to trade sideways in the wake of mixed economic figures. The series of soft United States data last week increased uncertainties on the assumption

On Monday, the U.S. dollar continues to trade sideways in the wake of mixed economic figures. The series of soft United States data last week increased uncertainties on the assumption

On Monday, the U.S. dollar continues to trade sideways in the wake of mixed economic figures. The series of soft United States data last week increased uncertainties on the assumption that the United States economy will be more flexible as compared to the other economies and pushed investors to start pricing in another rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

At the Fed front, the dollar may trade slightly bearish over the strong market expectation that the Federal Reserve will deliver the rate cut again at its upcoming policy meeting on 29-30 October to support the economy.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair is flashing green and representing 10% gains on the day while the currency pair is currently trading around 1.0980, and the twenty-one-day moving average is found at 1.0996. The EUR/USD currency pair can hit the bullish level above the critical M.A. hurdle. Hence, there are some chances that the pair will continue its recovery trend if the German Factory Orders blow past expectations.

On the other hand, if the German Factory Orders decline more than expected, the EUR/USD currency pair could hit the bearish level and will come under the selling pressure below 1.0950.

The German factory orders data is scheduled to release at 06:00 GMT, and expectations are high that the German factory data will show the pace of decline in August.

Factory Orders are anticipated to decline by 1.5% month-on-month in August, after July’s 2.7% decline. The annualized number is expected to print at -4.6%.

The headline IHS Markit and BME Germany Manufacturing PMI, a single-figure snapshot of the performance of the manufacturing economy, increased slightly to 43.5 during August, but remains well below 50, indicating contraction for an 8-month in a row.

It should also be noted that the possibilities of a twenty-basis-points rate cut by the Federal Reserve during October 30 have turned back higher to 83%. Therefore, the EUR/USD bearish trend could be limited.


Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.0895

S2 1.0937

S1 1.0958

Pivot Point 1.0978

R1 1.1

R2 1.102

R3 1.1062

EUR/USD – Trading Tips

On the technical front, the EUR/USD may find support at the crucial trading level of 1.0960 level. The MACD and RSI are holding in the bullish zone, suggesting odds of a bullish reversal. 

A bearish breakout of the 1.0967 level can extend selling until 1.0885. While buying can be seen over 1.0960 until 1.1035 levels. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

USD/JPY currency pair still consolidating in the narrow range, although the pair has managed to hold its neck comfortably above around1-month lows.

After Friday’s price fluctuations, the USD/JPY currency pair started with a bearish break on Monday as the Chinese officials are hesitant to agree to a comprehensive trade deal extended by the United States President Donald Trump. The Japanese Yen’s relative safe-haven status is applying some bearish pressure on the major.

At the Fed front, the strong market expectation that the Federal Reserve will deliver the rate cut again at its upcoming policy meeting on 29-30 October in the wake to support the economy.

The series of soft United States data last week increased uncertainties on the assumption that the United States economy will be more flexible as compared to the other economies and pushed investors to start pricing in another rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

The weaker trend in the United States treasury bond yields was found pushing greenback lower, and at the same time, helped driving a slight bearish movement in the USD/JPY pair today. 


Daily Support and Resistance

S3 105.78

S2 106.33

S1 106.62

Pivot Point 106.88

R1 107.17

R2 107.43

R3 107.98

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY pair covered the bearish gap that we can see on the 4-hour timeframe. The USD/JPY pair is trading below 50 periods EMA, which is placing a bearish pressure on the EUR/USD at 106.850. 

The MACD was massively bearish, but know it’s trying to exhibit a bullish crossover. Histograms above 0 are signalings chances of a bullish reversal in the USD/JPY. The pair has immediate support at 106.400, along with resistance at 107.450. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

GBP/USD currency pair still consolidating in the narrow range and traded well on the bullish track held over the previous 1-week or so.

All factors failed to give any significant reason for the significant and led trading at the beginning of the recent week. The GBP currency is still flat due to Friday’s report that the European parliament president has denied the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s new Brexit proposal.

However, the bearish range remained warm so far, due to slightly weaker trend surrounding the greenback, pressurized by the strong market expectations that the Federal Reserve will deliver the rate cut again at its upcoming meeting regarding monetary policy, the conference is scheduled to happen on 29-30 October.

On the flip side, the U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson still stands to take Britain out of the European Union on October 31, with deal or without, and caught investors from placing any aggressive bullish risk.

Due to serious of soft United States data, last week increased uncertainties on the assumption that the United States economy will be more flexible as compared to the other economies and pushed investors to start pricing in another rate cut by the Federal Reserve.



Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2169

S2 1.2245

S1 1.2291

Pivot Point 1.2322

R1 1.2367

R2 1.2398

R3 1.2474

GBP/USD – Trading Tips

The GBP/USD is trading with a bearish bias, as the 1.2340 level is extending it a substantial resistance today. The 50 EMA is likely to continue support at 1.2275, but the recent bearish engulfing candle may keep the GBP/USD under heavy selling pressure. 

The trading bias remains mostly bearish, and you should consider staying bearish below 1.2275 level today. 

All the best! 

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, October 03 – Major Trade Setups – Services PMI’s In Highlights

The U.S. dollar retreated for a second straight session, with the ICE Dollar Index slipping 0.1% to 99.02 on Wednesday. The euro climbed 0.3% to $1.0961. The top five economic

The U.S. dollar retreated for a second straight session, with the ICE Dollar Index slipping 0.1% to 99.02 on Wednesday. The euro climbed 0.3% to $1.0961. The top five economic

The U.S. dollar retreated for a second straight session, with the ICE Dollar Index slipping 0.1% to 99.02 on Wednesday. The euro climbed 0.3% to $1.0961. The top five economic think-tanks in Germany lowered their 2020 German GDP forecast to 1.1% from 1.8% previously, citing shrinking manufacturing production. And they said the economy could fall into a technical recession in the third quarter this year.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair flashing red at the level of1.0955, also the pair got a rejection near the 1.0967 (38.2% Fib Retracement of 1.1110/1.0943).

The EUR/USD currency pair took a buying at lows below 1.09 on Monday after the negative United States Manufacturing data propped the U.S. economic slowdown fears. As we know, the EUR/USD pair reached the recovery range above 1.0950 on Tuesday, ahead of unexpectedly lowest US ADP Employment data.

The United States’ ten-year treasury yield dropped by 3-basis-points and 4-basis-points on Tuesday and Wednesday, individually, and hit a bearish level of 1.578% in the Asian session. By the way, it’s one of the lowest levels since September 09.

However, the currency pair failed to hit the level of 1.0967, due to the decision by the United States President Donald Trump that to impose tariffs on $7.5 billion in European imports starting October 18. 

At the data front, the U.S. non-manufacturing data scheduled to release at 14:00 GMT is anticipated to compensate for worse than expected manufacturing PMI activity during September. The PMI is expected to issue figures at 55.1 against 56.4 during August.

Massive slip in the U.S. economic data will prop the United States slowdown concerns, eventually supporting the EUR/USD pair to hit higher to 1.10. Moreover, the chances of a 25-basis-points rate cut by the Federal Reserve during this month have already increased from 40% to 84% this week. Whereas, if the data beats the expectations, then the EUR/USD pair could decline back below the 1.09 level.

Daily Support and Resistance    

S3 1.0823

S2 1.0883

S1 1.0921

Pivot Point 1.0943

R1 1.0981

R2 1.1002

R3 1.1062

EUR/USD – Trading Tips

A day before Non-farm payrolls, the EUR/USD is trading a bit muted, as traders are staying out of the market due to a National holiday in China and Germany. Despite that, the EUR/USD may trade bearish below 1.0964 to target 1.0915 area. On the other side, the bullish breakout of 1.0960 can lead EUR/USD 1.1020. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair consolidates in the narrow range of 107 handle, due to the greenback falls out of favor with investors. Moreover, the USD/JPY currency pair struggles to hit the high-level of107 handles while the Asian equities and Treasury yields trade lowest.

As we know, the greenback continues to drop since the start of the week. The dollar has the weakest start of a 4th-quarter since 2008 after following a slump in the 3rd-quarter range.

The United States stocks continued their decline due to more dismal data. The downward risk sentiment is increasing, and the global economy is slowing down, which was again evident in the U.S. data that pushed the U.S. benchmarks lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, DJIA, dropped around 344 points, or 1.3% during the previous session.

Moreover, the S&P 500 index fell by 52.64 points, and the Nasdaq dropped by 123.44 points. The ADP data showed just 135,000 new jobs against forecasted figures of 140,000. With this, the traders are pricing in weaker Nonfarm Payrolls which is due on Friday.

The greenback and Treasury yields need support at this position. The United States’ two-year treasury yields dropped from 1.55% to 1.48%, and the ten-year dropped from 1.66% to 1.59%. 

Daily Support and Resistance

    

S3 105.7

S2 106.53

S1 106.86

Pivot Point 107.37

R1 107.69

R2 108.2

R3 109.04

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY has formed tweezers bottom on the 4-hour timeframe which is suggesting odds of a bullish reversal. The USD/JPY pair may find support at 106.90, and below this, it can go after 106.400. On the upper side, resistance stays at 107.450. 

WTI Crude Oil – Daily Analysis

The WTI crude oil prices found on the recovery track, due to concerns of the worsening global economic outlook. The economic outlook hit crude oil prices very hard during the previous trading session as traders are pricing in the probability for development in solving the on-going trade war between the United States and China. The U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures were up 23 cents, or 0.4%, to $52.87 a barrel, after sinking by 1.8% on Wednesday.

On the other hand, the global equity benchmarks found on the lowest level in a month on Wednesday. That came due to a sign of a recession in the United States economic growth. Secondly, the weaker economic data in Europe also distributed fears the global economy could fall into the slowdown.

There was a hurting sentiment in the previous trading session from the Energy Information Administration, which reported a surge of 3.1 million barrels in crude oil inventories in the last week. 

It should also be noted that top oil exporter Saudi Arabia is planning to lift the cost for crude oil it sells to Asia during November. The sentiments came following the drone attack on Sauida Kingdoms, and its oil production has also started to spike in the Middle East.  

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 48.53

S2 50.77

S1 51.65

Pivot Point 53

R1 53.89

R2 55.24

R3 57.48

WTI Crude Oil – Trading Tips

The WTI crude oil is finishing the Asian session in a bearish mode, falling from 53 to 52.70. Crude oil is facing significant resistance at 53 levels today. The MACD and RSI are bearish as both of them are holding under their crossover levels of 0 and 50 respectively. 

Consider staying bearish on crude oil below 53 to target 52.65 and 51.80 levels. All the best! 

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, October 01 – Major Trade Setups – Canadian GDP In Play! 

On Tuesday, the U.S. dollar surged to trade near its highest in around two weeks against the Japanese yen. The release of economic event that is forecast to dispense the

On Tuesday, the U.S. dollar surged to trade near its highest in around two weeks against the Japanese yen. The release of economic event that is forecast to dispense the

On Tuesday, the U.S. dollar surged to trade near its highest in around two weeks against the Japanese yen. The release of economic event that is forecast to dispense the U.S. manufacturing division turned to extension, which would ease concern about the influence of the continuing Sino-U.S. trade war.

The Reserve Bank of Newzealand has lowered the cash rate by 0.25% to a historic low of 0.75%. It’s the third cut this year; Governor Philip Lowe announced the economy was at a turning point, but the possibility of crawling jobs growth and moderate inflation convinced him of the call to act; The Aussie dollar dipped 0.4% to US67.22c; Some economists were predicting further rate cuts this year;

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

EUR/USD currency pair flashing red and dropped by 4% since the 2n d quarter of 2018, as of wiring the currency pair is closed at 1.0885 during the Monday.

The fresh drop in the EUR/USD currency pair came mainly due to tee German slowdown fears and the dovish European Central bank expectations. As we know, the central bank delivered the rate cut by the ten-basis-points to -0.50% last month and planned to restart bond purchase from November 01.

However, the Eurozone Consumer Prices Index data os scheduled to release at 09:00 GMT is anticipated to represent the cost of living in the currency bloc increase 1% yearly during the September.

On the other hand, WTI crude oil prices sharply increased during September as the drone attack on Saudi oil output. As a consequence, the CPI headline could hit forecasted figures in the future. The increase in inflation can be temporary, reflecting the sudden surge in crude oil prices, which is why the WTI crude oil price movement may not stop the European Central Bank from the fresh rate cut. Therefore, CPI data against forecast may not put a buying under the EUR currency. 

It should also be noted that the currency pair may also get hints from the final September Purchasing Managers Indices, which is scheduled to release across the Eurozone.


Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.0784

S2 1.0847

S1 1.0873

Pivot Point 1.091

R1 1.0936

R2 1.0974

R3 1.1037

EUR/USD – Trading Tips

On Tuesday, the EUR/USD is likely to continue trading lower due to violation of 1.0908 level. Below this, the bearish target is expected to be 1.0835 today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair is trading in the tight range and currently trading at 108.09, representing gains from 107.78 to 108.15 highs during the night session due to the United States stocks had closed the month in the green.

The market seems a bit calm, assuming that we will not see Chinese markets open due to its China’s National Day holidays that started on the day and will continue to October 07. Moreover, all eyes stay on the trade talk expectations and the United States key data which is scheduled to release yet, as well as Nonfarm Payrolls later in this week.

As of data, the United States’ two-year treasury yields and the 10-year yields were stronger overnight, supportive the DXY to fresh cycle highs while U.S. stocks gained and flashed the green. The United States’ two-year treasury yields increased from 1.62% to 1.65%, whereas the ten-year yield rose 1.68% to 1.71%. 

As for stocks, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, DJIA, ended 96.58 points higher to finish at 26,916.83, while the S&P 500 index rose 14.95 points, or 0.5%, to end at 2,976.74. The Nasdaq Composite Index ended at 7,999.34, for an increase of 0.1%.

The stock market was supported on some back trading concerning trade talks coupled with Federal Reserve rate cut extractions. Markets are pricing eight basis points of a rate cut at the October 31 meeting and a terminal rate of 1.14%.    

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 107.13

S2 107.56

S1 107.82

Pivot Point 108

R1 108.26

R2 108.44

R3 108.87

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On the hourly chart, the USD/JPY violated the horizontal resistance area of around 108, which is now likely to support the USD/JPY around 108. On the upper side, the resistance continues to stay at 108.460 area. 

The MACD and RSI are still holding in the buying zone, and suggesting chances of a bullish trend. We should consider staying bullish above 108 level today to target 108.460.  

AUD/USD – Daily Analysis

AUD/USD was closed at 0.67492 after placing a low of 0.67409. The overall trend remained bearish that day.

At 6:00 GMT, the MI Inflation Gauge came as 0.1% from Melbourne Institute and at 6:30 GMT. 

The Private Sector Credit from Reserve Bank of Australia came as 0.2% against 0.3% expected to weigh the Australian Dollar. Weak economic data from Australia caused a selling trend for AUD/USD on Monday.

However, Strong U.S. Dollar due to the rise of the U.S. Dollar Index to 99.46 also played its role in the downward movement of AUD/USD on Monday. 

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to cut its rates by 25 basis points on Tuesday. The further rate cut would create a selling trend for AUD/USD.


Daily Support and Resistance    

S3 0.6705

S2 0.6728

S1 0.6739

Pivot Point 0.6752

R1 0.6762

R2 0.6775

R3 0.6798

AUD/USD – Trading Tips

The Australian central bank has delivered a 0.25% rate cut on October 01 which has triggered a dramatic sell-off in the AUD/USD currency pair. The AUD/USD is trading at 0.6710 area, exhibiting strong bearish trend.

In fact, the AUD/USD has formed a bearish engulfing candle on the 4-hour timeframe, which is likely to drive further selling in the AUD/USD pair. Today, let’s consider staying bearish below 0.6752 to target 0.6675.

All the best for trading. 

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, September 30 – Major Trade Setups – Traders Set to Trade Monday! 

Happy Monday, Folks! 

A stellar week for the U.S. dollar index had price halt just shy of YTD highs at 99.37. Up 0.67% and recording its second week in positive

Happy Monday, Folks! 

A stellar week for the U.S. dollar index had price halt just shy of YTD highs at 99.37. Up 0.67% and recording its second week in positive

Happy Monday, Folks! 

A stellar week for the U.S. dollar index had price halt just shy of YTD highs at 99.37. Up 0.67% and recording its second week in positive territory, the next port of call, aside from 99.37, sits at 99.62, a robust weekly resistance level that draws history as far back as March 2015.

The main highlight of the week was U.S. House Speaker Pelosi opening a formal Trump impeachment inquiry over a controversial phone call between himself and his Ukrainian counterpart. Data was largely ignored. 

Consumer confidence declined in September, following a small slump in August. The Index presently holds at 125.1, falling from 134.2. Headline U.S. durable goods orders rose +0.2% m/m in August, topping the consensus view at -1.1%, according to the U.S. Census Bureau on Friday. U.S. personal consumption expenditures, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, fell 0.1% m/m, unable to meet consensus at 0.3%.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

Europe’s shared currency ended the week down 0.70% vs. the U.S. dollar. The week booted off undergoing heavy losses, beaten by dark flash PMI numbers and later pulled by resurgent dollar demand. 

Technically, weekly price trades very south of support at 1.0873, while daily run meets with the buying pressure at 1.0851-1.0950. The 4 hourly flow re-entered a descending channel creation (1.1109/1.0993) and is poised to make way for the essential figure 1.10 this week possibly.

Concerning macroeconomic figures, headline U.S. durable goods orders grew +0.2% m/m in August, beating the forecast of -1.1%, according to the U.S. Census Bureau on Friday. U.S. personal consumption expenditures, as per the U.s.s Bureau of Economic Analysis, fell 0.1% m/m, unable to meet consensus at 0.3%.

Technically, the H4 candles left 1.09 unchallenged Friday, sporting several lower candlestick shadows before rotating back within the descending channel formation (1.1109/1.0993). Aided on the back of daily demand highlighted above at 1.0851-1.0950, the pair certainly has scope to shake hands with September’s opening level at 1.0989, closely followed by the key figure 1.10 and channel resistance, this week.

 


Daily Support and Resistance 

S3 1.0814

S2 1.0872

S1 1.0895

Pivot Point 1.0931

R1 1.0954

R2 1.099

R3 1.1049

 

EUR/USD – Trading Tips

Consider staying bearish below 1.0936 and bullish above the same to capture quick take profits of 50 pips on either side. The market may trade sideways over neutral German CPI. However, the sharp variation in number can bring changes in the market. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

Last week, the USD/JPY was closed at 107.929 after placing a high of 108.178. Overall the movement of this pair showed a Bullish trend Last week.

Geopolitical issues were also cooled down a bit due to Saudi ‘Arabia’s decision about a ceasefire in Yemen. Moreover, the impeachment inquiry of Trump was also a headline last week for political anxiety in Washington but had a lesser effect on the U.S. Dollar Index. U.S. Yields rose after a decrease in Global Political & Economic tensions and gave strength to U.S. Dollar against Japanese Yen last week.

On Friday, few reports showed that U.S. President Donald ‘ Trump’s administration was considering the option to delist Chinese companies from US Stock Exchange, and it was also planning to limit the U.S. investors’investors’ portfolio flows in Chinese companies. These reports cause a slowdown in the upward trend of USD/JPY.

On the other hand, the speech of BOJ governor, Kuroda last week, expressed the concerns of Bank of Japan over the escalating risks to the economy. 


Daily Support and Resistance 

R3: 108.98

R2: 108.45

R1: 108.19

Pivot Point 107.92

S1: 107.66

S2: 107.4

S3: 106.87

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY violated the bullish channel on the hourly chart, which was extending its support around 107.950 area. On the 4 hour timeframe, the 20 and 50 moving averages are reflecting the bearish trend in the USD/JPY. The Japanese yen may find support at 107.750 against the U.S. dollar along with resistance at 107.885. Consider staying bearish below 107.900 today as the pair is likely to stay bearish in the short term. 

AUD/USD – Daily Analysis

The Australian dollar wrapped up the week unmoved against the buck last week, unable to overthrow channel support taken from the low 0.7003. To the upside, resistance resides close by at 0.6828, with a break of the channel mentioned above possibly exposing 0.6677, the YTD low. As is painfully evident on the weekly chart, the long-term downtrend remains in full swing and has done since early 2018. 

Support at 0.6733 endures a significant fixture on the daily timeframe, as does resistance outlined at 0.6833. Likewise, the interest is the 200/50-day SMAs both fronting south. A breach of the said support can help target the market around 0.6687, followed by support at 0.6301 

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 0.6688

S2 0.6723

S1 0.6736

Pivot Point 0.6759

R1 0.6772

R2 0.6794

R3 0.6829

AUD/USD – Trading Tips

The Australian central bank is expected to deliver a 0.25% rate cut on October 01. However, the United States Durable goods Orders, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and Personal Consumption data might consider short-term investors during the following part of the day.

The AUD/USD is trading at 0.6750 area, maintaining a short trading range of 0.6800 – 0.6750 range on Monday. The 50 periods exponential moving average is neutral but mostly suggesting a bearish bias on the 4-hour timeframe. 

Whereas, the MACD is consolidating in a green and red zone, indicating a neutral bias among traders. Hence, let’s keep an eye on 0.6759 to stay bullish and bearish below this level. 

All the best for trading.