Author: Ali B.

Categories
Forex Signals

USD/CHF Violates Ascending Triangle Pattern – Time for Sell Trade!

Entry Price – Sell 0.94431

Entry Price – Sell 0.94431

The robust selling bias encompassing the greenback drove the USD/CHF pair to recent lows during the European session. The sellers are now eyeing to test the support mark of 0.9400 and even lower. The di[ in the USD/CHF pair was exclusively sponsored by the emergence of some recent selling bias in the U.S. dollar, which was pressed down the demand for USD/CHF pair/

The risk sentiment initially got some support from the latest optimism about a potential coronavirus vaccine, which overshadowed concerns about surging COVID-19 cases in most countries. Although, the hopes of vaccine success increased after Moderna’s potential vaccine produced a “robust” immune response in all 45 patients in its early-stage human trials, providing more promising data that the vaccine may give some protection against the coronavirus. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the leading expert on infectious diseases in the U.S., also joined optimism while saying that the country will meet its goal regarding COVID-19 vaccine by year’s end, spurring hopes of an economic recovery.

At the US-China front, the long-lasting tussle between the world’s top two economies continuously increasing day by day as the U.S. policymakers were set to levy heavy sanctions on China’s ruling party members. As per the White House Chief of Staff, Mark Meadows, the Trump administration is studying national security risks of TikTok, WeChat, and other apps that allow a foreign adversary to gather information on users. However, these interfacing concerns about worsening US-China relations formed some safe-haven flows towards the Japanese yen and contributed to the currency pair declines.

Despite the worries about the second wave of the coronavirus infections and the better-than-expected U.S. macro releases, the broad-based U.S. dollar failed to gain any positive traction and edged lower on the day. However, the losses in the U.S. dollar could be attributed to the uptick in the U.S. stock futures. However, the declines in the U.S. dollar kept the currency pair lower. Whereas, the U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies was down 0.07% to 96.250 by 9:55 PM ET (2:55 AM GMT).


Considering the increase save haven appeal amid increased COVID19 cases and weakness in the U.S. dollar, the USD/CHF pair faces intense bearish pressure. The hybrid of ll bearish fundamentals has driven a sharp selling bias in the USD/CHF pair. Besides, the USD/CHF pair had violated the ascending triangle pattern on the lower side, which lead it’s prices further lower until 0.9400 level. The 50 EMA suggests selling around 0.9435, while the RSI and MACD are also in support of bearish bias. Check out a quick trade plan below.

Entry Price – Sell 0.94431

Stop Loss – 0.94831

Take Profit – 0.94031

Risk to Reward – 1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.

iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368

Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

Categories
Forex Signals

EUR/USD Crosses Over 50 EMA – Update on a Buy Signal!

Entry Price – Buy 1.13998

Entry Price – Buy 1.13998

The EUR/USD currency pair erased some of its previous day gains but still traded above the one-month high of 1.1400 and extended its previous winning streak while represented 0.06% gains on the day. However, the gains in currency pair could be attributed to the modest upbeat trading sentiment backed by the vaccine hopes, which undermined the broad-based U.S. dollar and contributed to the currency pair gains. The concerns that the European leaders will make progress in agreeing on a roughly €1.85 trillion package also supported the shared currency to stay bid.

At the moment, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.1389 and consolidating in the range between 1.1378 – 1.1395. However, the traders seemed cautious to place any strong position ahead of European Union Meeting, which is scheduled to happen later on the day.

It is worth mentioning that the European Union (E.U.) leaders will meet physically in the U.K. on Friday to discuss the coronavirus fiscal stimulus plan and a new long-term E.U. budget. The EUR/USD pair’s movement seemed rather unaffected by the latest ECB monetary policy update. As we know, the European Central Bank decided to maintain the status quo and left key interest rates unchanged. Given that the decision was in line with market expectations, that’s why the announcement did little to provide any meaningful impetus.

Apart from this, the modest upbeat market sentiment was supported by the hopes about the coronavirus vaccine, which overshadowed the fears of the ever-increasing numbers of the virus. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the leading expert on infectious diseases in the U.S., also hinted that the country would meet its goal regarding COVID-19 vaccine by year’s end, spurring hopes of an economic recovery.

Apart from this, the U.K. scientists have also reported their breakthrough in vaccine development. A trial for a COVID-19 vaccine being developed by researchers at Oxford University involving 5,000 volunteers is currently in Brazil’s progress. Pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca (LON: AZN) has also agreed to mass-produce the vaccine. In turn, this undermined demand for the safe-haven broad-based U.S. dollar and became a key factor that supported the currency pair.

At the coronavirus front, the United States reported at least 75,000 new COVID-19 cases, a new daily record. At the same time, Washington state COVID-19 cases rise by 1267 on Thursday to a total of 44313, the highest single daily increase since the pandemic started. In the meantime, the total number of cases in Texas rose by 10291 on Thursday to a total of 292656. Although, the deaths toll increased by 129 to 3561 total, highest single-day increase, and record increase for the second day in a row.

Despite the ever-increasing number of new coronavirus cases and the possibility of renewed lockdowns, the broad-based U.S. dollar failed to put any bid and reported losses on the day. However, the losses in the U.S. kept the pairs’ prices high. Whereas, the U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies was down 0.07% to 96.250 by 9:55 PM ET (2:55 AM GMT).

The market traders await the European Union (E.U.) meeting, which is expected to happen on the day. Whereas, the market traders will keep their eyes only on the USD price dynamics and coronavirus headlines, which could play a key role in influencing the intraday momentum amid the absence of the major data/events on the day. As well as, the traders will keep their eyes on the virus updates and news concerning China.


The EUR/USD is taking a bearish turn after placing a high around 1.1439 level. The closing of candles below 1.1439 level has extended selling until the 1.1370 level. Closing of candles above 1.1370 level can drive buying in the EUR/USD pair, but in case, the bearish breakout occurs, we may see EUR/USD prices dropping towards 1.1335 level. Check out a quick trade plan below.

Entry Price – Buy 1.13998

Stop Loss – 1.13598

Take Profit – 1.14398

Risk to Reward – 1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.

iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368

Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, July 17 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Final CPI Under Spotlight! 

On the news front, the market may not offer high impact events, but the focus will stay on the UK BOE Gov Bailey Speaks and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment from the United States. Since it’s Friday, we can experience sharp movements in the market, especially during U.S. sessions.

On the news front, the market may not offer high impact events, but the focus will stay on the UK BOE Gov Bailey Speaks and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment from the United States. Since it’s Friday, we can experience sharp movements in the market, especially during U.S. sessions.

On the news front, the market may not offer high impact events, but the focus will stay on the UK BOE Gov Bailey Speaks and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment from the United States. Since it’s Friday, we can experience sharp movements in the market, especially during U.S. sessions.

Economic Events to Watch Today 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.13818 after placing a high of 1.14415 and a low of 1.13703. The EUR/USD pair broke its four-day bullish streak on Thursday and started posting losses on the back of European Central Bank’s monetary policy meeting decision combined with the broad-based U.S. dollar strength.

The ECB left its rates unchanged on Thursday; however, the latest recovery plan’s decision worth 750 billion euros was still pending. The European Central Bank held its refinancing operations at 0% and pledged to roll out more stimulus if the Eurozone’s economic recovery slowed materially. However, the meeting was seen as something of a non-event by the analysts, who think that the E.U. Summit will overshadow the ECB announcement.

A two-day European Summit will occur on Friday, and the ECB Governor called for fiscal support just a day ahead of the Summit. E.U. leaders will discuss the European Commission proposal’s distribution pattern for a 750 billion euros recovery plan. This plan was introduced to help some of the economic bloc’s worst-hit members.

According to Christine Lagarde, European leaders must show quick agreement on an ambitious package. Member states disagree on how the recovery package should be funded, and to show an agreement on it, all 27 E.U. member states need to back this package.

However, Italy has backed the proposal before the E.U. Summit to guide other member states to follow its footsteps. However, the Netherland, Sweden, Denmark, and Austria, known as “Frugal Four,” insist that these funds should be released as loans rather than as grants. In its last videoconference meeting, the E.U. leaders failed to reach an agreement, and the decision was forwarded to the next meeting. On Friday, the leaders will again discuss the distribution of the recovery plan, but this time, a face-to-face meeting will occur for the first time since the outbreak of the pandemic.

Chances for securing a deal between 27 member states are low, and traders are cautious. The French Final CPI for June rose to 0.1% against the expected -0.1% and supported Euro on the data front. At 13:02 GMT, the Italian Trade Balance showed a surplus of 5.58 B in May compared to 1.13 B of deficit in April.

At 14:00 GMT, the Trade Balance was up by 8.0 B against the forecasted 5.0B and supported Euro. Despite better than expected economic data from Europe, the EUR/USD pair declined on Thursday amid a strong U.S. dollar. From the U.S. side, the Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales were increased to 7.3% and 7.5% respectively against the expected 5.0% in June and supported the U.S. dollar. The strong U.S. dollar weighed on EUR/USD pair, and the pair started to decline.

Furthermore, the risk-off market sentiment after President Trump announced that he had signed the Hong Kong Autonomy Act. Moreover, the Justice Secretary from the US, William Barr, urged American tech firms not to do business with the Chinese government to reduce competitiveness.

These reports raised fears for the potential cold war between U.S. & China and raised risk-off market sentiment that supported EUR/USD pair declines on Thursday.


Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.1357     1.1429

1.1328     1.1472

1.1285     1.1501

Pivot point: 1.1400

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is taking a bearish turn after placing a high around 1.1439 level. The closing of candles below 1.1439 level has extended selling until the 1.1370 level. Closing of candles above 1.1370 level can drive buying in the EUR/USD pair, but in case, the bearish breakout occurs, we may see EUR/USD prices dropping towards 1.1335 level. Let’s keep an eye on 1.1370 as below this; we can capture a quick sell position.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.25538 after placing a high of 1.26144 and a low of 1.25197. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained bearish throughout the day. The pair extended its previous day’s retracement slide and remained depressed through the first half of the day amid modest U.S. dollar strength. On Thursday, the U.S. dollar was strong across the board due to its safe-haven status as the risk-appetite was fading away. The latest optimism about the potential coronavirus vaccine turned out to be short-lived, and concerns about US-China relations raised the safe-haven appeal.

The strong greenback due to safe-haven demand, the GBP/USD pair came under pressure and dropped in early sessions. However, it showed that the downside movement of the GBP/USD pair was limited after the U.S. Treasury bond yields started to decline. This, combined with the better than expected economic data, gave a push to GBP/USD pair.

At 11:00 GMT, the Claimant Count Change from June was released by the Office for National Statistics on Thursday, which showed that the number of people applied for jobless benefits fell by 28.1K against the expectations +250K. The Claimant count rates eased to 7.3% vs. the previous 7.8%.

The U.K.’s official Jobless rate was also decreased to 3.9% against the expected 4.2% and provided strength to the British Pound. The Average Earnings Index, excluding bonuses, arrived at -0.3% in May against the expected -0.4% and supported British Pound. The steady GBP helped the pair GBP/USD to limit its daily losses on Thursday.

On the U.S. front, the Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales were improved to 7.3% and 7.5% respectively against the projected 5.0% in June and supported the U.S. dollar. The strong U.S. dollar weighed on GBP/USD pair, and the pair extended its losses.

Meanwhile, the Bank of England data revealed that lending has dried up quickly in the second quarter of the year. The Bank’s credit conditions survey showed that mortgages, loans, and credit card lending all dropped in the second quarter, and the further decline was still expected.

On Brexit front, the politicians from across the U.K., including Northern Ireland’s first and deputy first ministers, will discuss Brexit via videoconference. Arlene Foster and Michelle O’Neill will join the video conference chaired by Cabinet Minister Michael Gove.

The representatives from Welsh and Scottish governments and NI Secretary Brandon Lewis will also be heard by the joint ministerial committee. The discussion will focus on NI protocol and the Brexit transition period. Meanwhile, the second meeting with a joint EU & UK committee focused on how to implement the Northern Ireland part of the Brexit deal is also due.

Furthermore, the Brexit talks between U.K.’s chief negotiator David Frost and Michel Barnier continued in Brussels on Thursday to secure a trade deal. Several outstanding issues like fishing, trade, and governance, remain undercard even after four fruitless talks. U.K. is set to leave the controversial Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) and take back control of its U.K. waters, and the E.U. has shown its willingness to compromise to gain access to the U.K. waters.


Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.2505     1.2610

1.2459     1.2671

1.2399     1.2716

Pivot Point: 1.2565

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading with a selling bias at 1.2550 level, holding right above the support level of 1.2548 level. Downward breakout of 1.2548 level can extend selling until 1.2506 and 1.2479 support. The MACD and RSI both are supporting a bearish bias. On the upper side, the GBP/USD can face resistance at 1.2575 and 1.2595. Let’s consider taking Sell trades below 1.2533 level today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 107.275 after placing a high of 107.398 and a low of 106.830. Overall the movement of the USD/JPY pair remained bullish throughout the day. The USD/JPY pair moved sideways in the first half of the trading session on Thursday; however, it started to gain traction in the early hours of American trading session, and after that, it advanced to a daily high of 107.398.

The optimism related to potential coronavirus vaccine was short-lived and faded away quickly and dragged risk sentiment. The decreased risk appetite in the market weighed on Japanese Yen and pushed the USD/JPY pair on the above track.

Earlier in the day, the U.S. Census Bureau’s data showed that Retail Sales in June increased by 7.5% and beat the market expectations of 5.0%. The Core Retail Sales data in June also surged to 7.3% from the expected 5.0% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index rose to 24.1 against the expected 20.0 and supported the U.S. dollar. The strong U.S. dollar pushed the USD/JPY prices in the upward direction on Thursday.

However, the gains in currency pair were capped by the poor than expected jobless claims data from the U.S. Last week, the Unemployment claims made by the Americans rose to 1300K from the 1250K of expectations and weighed on the U.S. dollar.

1.3M jobless people filed for jobless benefits last week, and it showed that the U.S. economy still has a large portion to fill in the jobs department. At 19:00 GMT, the Business Inventories from the United States came in as expected -2.3%. The NAHB Housing Market Index from the United States rose to 72 from the expected 60 and supported the U.S. dollar and added further in USD/JPY pair gains.

Furthermore, the New York President of Federal Reserve said on Thursday that the Fed’s emergency lending facilities have helped to ease credit markets after the pandemic disrupted them. He said that relatively low usage of the program indicated that markets were functioning well.

The statement that low-take up of emergency lending facilities was a sign of success from John Williams gave additional strength to the already strong U.S. dollar, and hence, USD/JPY pair further increased.

On US-China front, the US Justice Secretary, William Barr blamed Hollywood and U.S. tech firms of cooperating with the Chinese government to work there. Barr said that such actions could damage the liberal world order.

Speaking at Gerald Ford Presidential Museum, he advised U.S. firms not to give up their secrets and values to China by coming under pressure because it will make the U.S. vulnerable and dependent on China for certain goods.

This was the latest criticism of China by the White House and other U.S. officials. He warned that the working of Disney & American corporations with Beijing would weaken competitiveness and prosperity. He urged U.S. firms to challenge Chinese demands and said that if an individual company cannot take a stand, then firms should combine.

Furthermore, the U.S. imposed visa restrictions on certain employees of Huawei Tech Company. In response to this, the Chinese technology giant Huawei on Thursday, stated regret over the U.S. move to restrict its employees from visiting the U.S. Huawei called the U.S.’s latest move as “an unfair and arbitrary action.”


Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

106.93     107.51

106.59     107.75

106.35     108.09

Pivot Point: 107

 USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is consolidating in a wide trading range of 107.400 – 107, while the overall bias seems neutral at 107.191. Recently the USD/JPY pair has crossed over 50 EMA, which extended resistance at 107 level, including now the same level will work as a support. The bearish breakout of the 107 level can extend the selling trend until 106.580. At the same time, the bullish breakout of the 107.400 level can extend the buying trend until 107.600. The MACD and RSI support bearish bias, and we may take a selling trade below 107 and buying above the same level today. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

Gold Fails to Crossover Triple Top Pattern – Quick Update on Signal!

Entry Price – Sell 1805.48

Entry Price – Sell 1805.48

The safe-haven-metal prices unchanged above the $1810 level and erased some of its gains on the day, mainly due to the modest upbeat market sentiment backed by the continued hopes of a COVID-19 vaccine. However, the yellow-metal losses could be short-lived as worsening of the virus situations in America and Japan not showing any sign of slowing down.

On the other hand, the broad-based U.S. dollar took fresh bids on the day mainly driven by the concern about worsening U.S.-China relations over the control of advanced technologies and the protection of civil liberties in Hong Kong, which became a key factor that kept the gold prices under pressure. The yellow metal price is trading at 1,808.88 and consolidating in the range between 1,808.32 – 1,813.47. However, traders seem cautious to place any strong position ahead of the U.S. key data.

The modest upbeat market sentiment could be associated with the recent reports that U.S. President Donald Trump privately refrained from imposing further sanctions against Chinese entities involved in enacting Hong Kong’s national security law while saying that he does not want to aggravate tensions with China further. Despite Trump’s positive comments, the tensions remain on the cards as China threatening to retaliate after Trump also stripped Hong Kong of its special trading privileges and signed an executive order for initial sanctions on Tuesday.

On the negative side, the market sentiment took a hit as Shares in China declined 1.06%, and Australian stocks dropped 0.22% after the country’s jobless rate jumped to the highest since the late 1990s. Shares in Hong Kong and Seoul also fell. Wheres, the second wave of coronavirus infections, is also triggering a return to restrictions on business activity that threaten economic growth.

Despite the continued surge in the number of coronavirus cases globally and the ongoing Sino-American conflict, the market traders cheered the optimism concerning the COVID-19 vaccine, which was triggered after the upbeat signals form Moderna and U.S. President Donald Trump’s comment concerning the COVID-19 vaccine. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the leading expert on infectious diseases in the U.S., also hinted that the country would meet its goal regarding COVID-19 vaccine by year’s end, spurring hopes of an economic recovery.

Apart from this, Russia also completed early-stage trials of a COVID-19 vaccine, which also add some strength to the upbeat sentiment developed by the First Moscow State Medical University and the Main Military Clinical Burdenko Hospital, the vaccine reported optimistic preliminary results on Wednesday.

Considering the worse situation of ever-increasing coronavirus numbers and an ongoing tussle between the US-China, witnessed by the 0.5% decline in the S&P 500 futures, the broad-based U.S. dollar gained positive traction and took bids on the day as investors turn towards the safe-haven asset. However, the U.S. gains kept the gold prices lower as the price of gold is inversely linked to the price of the U.S. dollar. Whereas, the U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies gained 0.01% to 96.032 by 10:12 PM ET (3:12 AM GMT).

Moving ahead, the yellow metal could continue to trade in confined range heading into the key U.S. Retail Sales release. Whereas, the smaller-than-expected rise in the data could further depress the market mood and weigh on the global stocks and accelerate the recovery momentum in the U.S. dollar, which could keep the gold prices under pressure. However, the bearish trend in the gold could be short-lived amid looming virus risks and US-China escalation.


The gold may trade with a bearish bias below the 1807 resistance level. The 50 EMA and MACD are supporting selling bias in gold. While the gold may face a hard time to violate the 1801 support level. Here’s a quick trade plan to follow.

Entry Price – Sell 1805.48

Stop Loss – 1810.48

Take Profit – 1800.48

Risk to Reward – 1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$500/ +$500

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$50/ +$50

Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.

iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368

Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

Categories
Forex Signals

GBP/USD Crosses Below 50 EMA – Good Time to Short!

Entry Price – Sell 1.2546

Entry Price – Sell 1.2546

The GBP/USD currency pair extended its early-day losses and took offers below the mid-1.2600 level while represented 0.41% losses on the day mainly due to downbeat trading sentiment underpinning the broad-based U.S. dollar contributed to the currency pair losses.

On the other hand, the better-than-expected U.K. monthly employment detail further extended some support to the British pound and helped the currency pair limit its deeper losses. Whereas, China’s latest warnings to the U.K. over the Huawei ban matter also exerted some downside pressure on the British pound. Currently, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.2536 and consolidating in the range between 1.2527 – 1.2594.

It is worth reporting that the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Thursday that the official U.K. unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.9% for May compared to 4.2% expected. The claimant count change showed an unexpected decrease last month.

At the data front, The number of people claiming jobless benefits declined by 28.1K in June, against expectations +250K and +528.9K seen previously. The claimant count rate eased to 7.3% vs. 7.8% last.

In the meantime, the U.K.’s average weekly earnings, excluding bonuses, arrived at +0.7% 3Mo/YoY in May versus +1.7% last and +0.5% expected while the gauge including bonuses came in at -0.3% 3Mo/YoY in May versus +1.0% previous and -0.4% expected.

The latest optimism over a potential vaccine for the highly contagious coronavirus disease was recently overshadowed by China’s latest warnings to the U.S. after the U.S. sanctions on Beijing’s diplomats. In the meantime, the U.S. is also considering imposing a travel ban on Chinese Communist Party members, which is likely to prompt sharp retaliation.

On the positive side, the market traders cheered the optimism concerning the COVID-19 vaccine, which was triggered after the upbeat signals form Moderna. As well as, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the leading expert on infectious diseases in the U.S., also hinted on Wednesday that the country will meet its goal regarding COVID-19 vaccine by year’s end, spurring hopes of an economic recovery. Apart from this, Russia also completed early-stage trials of a COVID-19 vaccine, which provided some support to the risk-tone and helped limit deeper losses.


The GBP/USD was trading in line with our forecast and was near to hit our take profit, but unfortunately, the release of worse than expected U.S. jobless claims triggered bullish bias in the pair. The idea was to stay in a sell position below 1.2575 level as this was support become resistance level for Sterling. Besides, the MACD, RSI, and 50 EMA were also in support of selling. Anyhow, the market has already closed our position at the stop. For now, you should keep an eye on the 1.2600 level to take a selling trade in GBP/USD

Entry Price – Sell 1.2546

Stop Loss – 1.2586

Take Profit – 1.2506

Risk to Reward – 1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$400/ +$400

Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.

iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368

Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, July 16 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – ECB Policy Decision In Highlights! 

It’s going to be a busy day from a fundamental’s viewpoint, as the European Central Bank is due to release its rate decision. Furthermore, the U.S. will be releasing a series of high impact events like Retail Sales m/m, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and Unemployment Claims. Although ECB isn’t expected to hike the interest rate, the ECB press conference can drive movement in the EUR/USD pair today. Besides, U.S. events are expected to perform adversely for the U.S. dollar.

It’s going to be a busy day from a fundamental’s viewpoint, as the European Central Bank is due to release its rate decision. Furthermore, the U.S. will be releasing a series of high impact events like Retail Sales m/m, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and Unemployment Claims. Although ECB isn’t expected to hike the interest rate, the ECB press conference can drive movement in the EUR/USD pair today. Besides, U.S. events are expected to perform adversely for the U.S. dollar.

It’s going to be a busy day from a fundamental’s viewpoint, as the European Central Bank is due to release its rate decision. Furthermore, the U.S. will be releasing a series of high impact events like Retail Sales m/m, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and Unemployment Claims. Although ECB isn’t expected to hike the interest rate, the ECB press conference can drive movement in the EUR/USD pair today. Besides, U.S. events are expected to perform adversely for the U.S. dollar.

Economic Events to Watch Today 

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.14114 after placing a high of 1.14473 and a low of 1.13900. Overall the tendency of the EUR/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. The EUR/USD pair continued its bullish streak for the 4th consecutive day and reached a multi-month high level near 1.14500 level on Wednesday. The pair rose to the highest level since March 10 in the early Wednesday trading session. Nevertheless, it did not live there for long and was pulled back in the American session.

The upward movement of EUR/USD towards a multi-month high level was caused by the European Central Bank’s monetary policy meeting on Thursday. The lower move was triggered by a recovery of the U.S. dollar across the board. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) erased most of its losses and recovered from weekly lows, rose above 96.00 level, and gave strength to the U.S. dollar that eventually weighed on EUR/USD pair.

The risk sentiment was also up in the market by the optimism about the potential vaccine for COVID-19. As a result, the Dow Jones was up by 0.80%, and NASDAQ was up by 0.35%.

On the data front, the U.S. dollar was strong due to better than expected data released on Wednesday. The Empire State Manufacturing Index was published at 17:30 GMT, which showed that the index rose to 17.2 from the expectations of 10.0 in July and supported the U.S. dollar.

The Import Prices from the U.S. in June rose to 1.4% from the expected 1.0% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Industrial Production data was announced at 18:15 GMT, which showed an expansion in activity by 5.4% against the forecasted 4.5% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Capacity Utilization rate from the U.S. Roseto 68.6%from the predicted 67.9% and supported the U.S. dollar. It eventually weighed on EUR/USD pair in late trading session and forced it to lose its early daily gains.

In Europe, the key event ahead is the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday, in its last meeting, ECB made its biggest decision in June and left the rates unchanged and provided no stance to change further. The focus will be on the press conference, where traders will keep an eye on Lagarde’s speech to find fresh clues about the economic outlook. However, the tone is estimated to be positive, and Lagarde’s firm commitment to the full 1.35tn euros PEPP is also expected.


Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.1384    1.1445

1.1356    1.1480

1.1322    1.1507

Pivot point: 1.1418

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is taking a bearish turn after placing a high around 1.1446 level. The closing of candles below 1.1446 level can extend selling until the 1.1390 level. Closing of candles above 1.1390 level can drive buying in the EUR/USD pair, but in case, the bearish breakout occurs, we may see EUR/USD prices dropping towards 1.1365 level.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.25879 after placing a high of 1.26467 and a low of 1.25417. Overall the movement of GP/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. The GBP/USD pair edged higher on Wednesday on the back of increased risk-appetite that made the U.S. dollar weak due to weakened appeal for the safe-haven currency. The risk sentiment was bolstered by many factors, including reports suggesting China’s economy was rebounding despite the COVID-19 pandemic.

As in result, Investors shifted towards riskier assets like GBP/USD currency pair as the world’s second-largest economy was continuously showing improvement while America was lagging. The latest US CPI data that edged higher by 0.6% was also not enough to boost the U.S. economy’s confidence.

The soft demand for the U.S. dollar due to an extended period of weak growth and the prevailing second wave of coronavirus induced economic downturn, helped the GBP/USD to move upward on Wednesday.

The Pound rose on Wednesday following the release of the latest U.K. Consumer Price Index for June that exceeded the forecasted 0.5% and came in as 0.6%. As in result, investors became more optimistic about Britain’s economic recovery.

The policymaker of Bank of England, Silvana Tenreyro, said on Wednesday that Britain’s economic recovery from the coronavirus lockdown would probably be delayed by the consumer’s caution towards viruses, decreased activity due to social distancing and rising unemployment. She added that behavioral responses mean that the U.K. economic outlook will continue to depend on the global and domestic spread of COVID-19.

She also said that she was prepared to push for fresh stimulus measures to aid the U.K.’s struggling economy. She said that a V-shaped economic recovery was unlikely.

On the data front, the Consumer Price Index for the year from the U.K. was released at 11:00 GMT, which showed an increase to 0.6% from the forecasted 0.4% and supported British Pound. The year’s Core CPI also increased to 1.4% from the expected 1.2% and supported GBP.

The PPI (Producer price index) Input for June from the U.K. decreased to 2.4% from the expected 3.0% and weighed on GBP. However, the PPI Output for June increased to .3% from the anticipated 0.2% and supported GBP. The RPI (Raw-material price index) for the year came in line with the 1.1% expectations. Most of the data came in better than expected and supported British Pound that gave strength to GBP/USD pair and made it move on the upside.

Besides, the Empire State Manufacturing Index rose from 10.0 of the forecast to 17.2 and supported the U.S. dollar. The Import Prices for June came in as 1.4% against the 1.0% of expectations and supported the U.S. dollar.

At 18:15 GMT, the closely watched Industrial Production for June rose to 5.4% against the expectations of 4.5% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Capacity Utilization Rate increased to 68.6% from the forecasted 67.9% and supported the U.S. dollar. The strong U.S. dollar failed to reverse the bullish momentum; however, it managed to limit the additional gains in GBP/USD pair on Wednesday.

Looking forward, GBP investors will be waiting for the release of the UK ILO Unemployment rate for May on Thursday. If unemployment rises, the U.K.’s GBP will show signs of losses. Meanwhile, U.S. traders will await the U.S. Retail Sales data. Any sign of fall in Retail Sales will undermine the U.S. dollar.


Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.2535   1.2638

1.2490   1.2696

1.2432   1.2742

Pivot point: 1.2593

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading with a selling bias at 1.2550 level, holding right above the support level of 1.2548 level. Downward breakout of 1.2548 level can extend selling until 1.2506 and 1.2479 support. The MACD and RSI both are supporting a bearish bias. On the higher side, the GBP/USD pair can face resistance at 1.2575 and 1.2595. Let’s consider taking Sell trades below 1.2533 level today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 107.233 after placing a high of 107.432 and a low of 107.116. Overall the movement of the USD/JPY pair remained bearish throughout the day. At 9:30 GMT, the Revised Industrial production for May from Japan came in as -8.9% against the expected -8.4% and weighed on Japanese Yen.

At 15:00 GMT, the NFIB Small Business Index for June raised to 100.6 from the expected 97.5 and supported the U.S. dollar. At 17:30 GMT, the Consumer Price Index for June increased to 0.6 % from the expected 0.5% and supported the U.S. dollar. For June, the Core CPI also rose to 0.2% against the expected 0.1% and supported the U.S. dollar.

On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard offered a downbeat assessment of risk ahead. She said that the path ahead for the U.S. economy was under the clouds of high uncertainty, and the Federal Reserve should use forward guidance and large scale asset purchases for a sustained period to help the recovery.

In a virtual event hosted by the National Association for Business Economics, Brainard said that the pandemic was the key driver of the economy’s course. A thick fog of uncertainty still surrounded the U.S. and downside risks predominated.

The calls for further stimulus accommodation from the Federal Reserve by Brainard weighed on the U.S. dollar that dragged USD/JPY with it.

However, the uncontrolled rise in the numbers of coronavirus cases from the U.S. made investors cautious about holding the greenback, and hence, USD lost its traction and weighed on the USD/JPY pair.

The losses in the U.S. dollar were extended after many countries reported renewed lockdown measures to help control the virus’s spread. The California State, which is considered the most populous state of America, also imposed renewed restrictions and weighed on the U.S. dollar as its economic recovery would be difficult.

The cities and states imposed lockdown measures on the back of warning given by the World Health Organization that pandemic could only worsen if countries failed to follow strict precautions. In response to this, Hong Kong, Philippines, Hungary, Australia, and California announced lockdown measures. These restrictions imposed negative pressure on market sentiment as it will affect the global economic recovery.

Meanwhile, Beijing announced sanctions on Lockheed Martin for his involvement in the latest U.S. arms sale to Chinese-claimed Taiwan. This raised the ongoing tensions between the U.S. & China that were already heightened due to the South China Sea issue. The lockdown mentioned above restrictions and ongoing US-China tensions raised a safe-haven appeal that supported Japanese Yen and weighed on USD/JPY pair.


Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

107.10    107.43

106.94    107.60

106.77    107.75

Pivot point: 107.27

 USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading with a bearish bias at 106.997 to consolidate within a wide trading range of 107.350 to 106.950. Recently the USD/JPY pair has crossed below 50 EMA, which extended support at 107.100 level, including now the same level is going to work as a resistance. The bearish breakout of the 106.900 level can extend the selling trend until 107.620 and 106.37 level. The MACD and RSI support bearish bias, and we may take a selling trade below 107.27 today. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

EUR/USD Violates Triple Top Resistance – Update on Buying Trade

The EUR/USD pair is trading with a bullish bias over 1.1418 level, after having crossed over the horizontal resistance level of 1.1410. For now, the EUR/USD pair is expected to find resistance at 1.1485 level. It seems like the U.S. dollar is getting weaker amid an increasing number of new coronavirus cases and the probability of repeated lockdowns. The broad-based U.S. dollar failed to put any bid and reported losses on the day.

The EUR/USD pair is trading with a bullish bias over 1.1418 level, after having crossed over the horizontal resistance level of 1.1410. For now, the EUR/USD pair is expected to find resistance at 1.1485 level. It seems like the U.S. dollar is getting weaker amid an increasing number of new coronavirus cases and the probability of repeated lockdowns. The broad-based U.S. dollar failed to put any bid and reported losses on the day.

The EUR/USD pair is trading with a bullish bias over 1.1418 level, after having crossed over the horizontal resistance level of 1.1410. For now, the EUR/USD pair is expected to find resistance at 1.1485 level. It seems like the U.S. dollar is getting weaker amid an increasing number of new coronavirus cases and the probability of repeated lockdowns. The broad-based U.S. dollar failed to put any bid and reported losses on the day.

However, the losses in the U.S. kept the pairs’ prices high. Whereas, the U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies dropped by 0.11% to 96.073 by 9:50 PM ET (2:50 AM GMT).

The market traders await the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, which is supposed to publish its interest rate settlement and deliver its policy statement. As per the forecasting view, “we expect no major policy changes next week,” said Rabobank analysts. “The ECB waits for more data on the economic outlook, developments on the fiscal front, and the impact of its measures.” Apart from this, the market traders will keep their eyes on the USD price dynamics and coronavirus headlines, which could play a key role in influencing the intraday momentum.


The EURUSD has violated the testing Triple Top resistance around 1.1415 level, and the recent daily candle is bullish engulfing, which may drive the bullish trend in the EUR/USD pair. On the higher side, a bullish breakout of the 1.1415 level can extend bullish bias until the 1.1490 level. On the lower side, support stays at 1.1380 and 1.1365 level. Check out the trade plan below…

Entry Price – Buy 1.14362

Stop Loss – 1.13962

Take Profit – 1.14762

Risk to Reward – 1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$400/ +$400

Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.

iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368

Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

Categories
Forex Signals

USD/CAD Breaks Below 1.3600 – Quick Update on Trading Signal!

Today in the European trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair flashed red and hit the intra-day low to 1.3575 level due to the risk-on market sentiment, which undermined the broad-based U.S. dollar and sent the currency pair lower. The reason for the losses in the pair could also be attributed to the upticks in the crude oil prices that underpinned the commodity-linked currency the Loonie and contributed to the currency pair declines.

Today in the European trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair flashed red and hit the intra-day low to 1.3575 level due to the risk-on market sentiment, which undermined the broad-based U.S. dollar and sent the currency pair lower. The reason for the losses in the pair could also be attributed to the upticks in the crude oil prices that underpinned the commodity-linked currency the Loonie and contributed to the currency pair declines.

Today in the European trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair flashed red and hit the intra-day low to 1.3575 level due to the risk-on market sentiment, which undermined the broad-based U.S. dollar and sent the currency pair lower. The reason for the losses in the pair could also be attributed to the upticks in the crude oil prices that underpinned the commodity-linked currency the Loonie and contributed to the currency pair declines.

Despite the continued rise in the number of coronavirus cases globally and the on-going Sino-American conflict, the market traders cheered the optimism concerning the success of the vaccine confirmed by the upbeat signals from Moderna and U.S. President Donald Trump’s comments on the COVID-19 vaccine. It should be noted that Moderna’s potential vaccine to stop Covid-19, which was first reported as safe, back in mid-May, offered hope about the vaccine’s success. CNBC reported that the vaccine produces neutralizing antibodies in all 45 patients in its early stage human trial. Meanwhile, President Trump also said that the vaccine would be available for use in record-breaking time. This positive new offered the latest strength to the risk-tone.

As in result, the market’s risk-tone sentiment remained mildly positive, with the U.S. stock futures up nearly 1.0%. Additionally, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields added 1.6 basis points to extend the previous day’s recovery moves past-0.63%.

At the coronavirus front, the COVID-19 situation continued to worsen globally. As in result, California Governor Gavin Newsom has recently ordered the re-imposition of social-distancing measures across the largest U.S. state. Whereas, the most populous state’s two largest school districts, Los Angeles and San Diego, also decided to teach only online when classes resume in August. Apart from the U.S., the Japanese Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura said that his government could declare an emergency if infections grew further. However, the ever-increasing coronavirus fears initially challenged the risk-on market sentiment.

Apart from virus worries, the Sino-American tension was heated as the U.S. rolled out sanctions on diplomats from Beijing while also defied Hong Kong’s special treatment. The Republican leader recently criticized China for Hong Kong security law and held it responsible for the pandemic (COVID-19) during his on-going Rose Garden press conference. In the meantime, Trump said he had convinced many countries not to use Huawei, and he also added that “We can impose further massive tariffs on China if we desire.” 

Despite this, the broad-based U.S. dollar reported losses on the day, possibly due to the upbeat trading sentiment backed by multiple factors. Although, the losses in the U.S. dollar supported the currency pair gains. Whereas, the U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies dropped by 0.11% to 96.073 by 9:50 PM ET (2:50 AM GMT).

At the crude oil front, WTI crude oil prices took bids around $41 on the day backed by the sharp drop in U.S. crude inventories, which helped investors to improve their confidence about oil demand. However, the data indicated an improvement in demand despite the increased number of appearing coronavirus cases worldwide. Although the upticks in the crude oil prices underpinned the commodity-linked currency, the Loonie and exerted some downside pressure on the currency pair.

Looking forward, the market traders await the U.S. economic docket, which will show the release of the Empire State Manufacturing Index and Industrial Production. The market traders will keep their eyes on the USD price dynamics and coronavirus headlines, which could play a key role in influencing the intraday momentum. Whereas, the updates concerning China-US Relations could not lose their importance.


The USD/CAD is consolidating with a selling bias at the 1.3590 mark, testing a support mark of 1.3590. It recently has formed on a bearish engulfing bar, which implies that there are yet chances of a continuation of the bearish trend, and if that happens, the pair could drop to the 1.3550 level. Below this, the next support level is expected to go after the 1.3490 level. Let’s look for selling trades below the 1.3620 level today.

Entry Price – Sell 1.35763

Stop Loss – 1.36163

Take Profit – 1.35363

Risk to Reward – 1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$400/ +$400

Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.

iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368

Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, July 15 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – EU Industrial Production Ahead!

Today the major focus will remain on the UK CPI data, along with Canadian interest rate decision, which is due later today. The crude oil inventories will also remain in highlights to drive price action in CAD and WTI.

Today the major focus will remain on the UK CPI data, along with Canadian interest rate decision, which is due later today. The crude oil inventories will also remain in highlights to drive price action in CAD and WTI.

Today the major focus will remain on the UK CPI data, along with Canadian interest rate decision, which is due later today. The crude oil inventories will also remain in highlights to drive price action in CAD and WTI.

Economic Events to Watch Today 

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.13999 after placing a high of 1.14085 and a low of 1.13250. Overall the movement of the EUR/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. The EUR/USD rose above 1.1400 level for the first time in more than a month since June 10 on the back of heavy selling bias surrounding greenback. The pair EUR/USD rose for the 3rd consecutive day on Tuesday, in the wake of broad-based U.S. dollar weakness.

In the absence of significant fundamental drivers, the U.S. dollar index continued to react to Wall Street’s performance. The major equity indexes rose and made it difficult for the safe-haven U.S. dollar to find demand.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) was down 0.3% on the day at 96.25, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.2% and the S&P 500 gained 0.5%.

On the data front, the Industrial Production expanded in May by 12.4% against the expected 14.9% and weighed on single currency Euro that helped limit additional gains. The ZEW Economic Sentiment for July came in as 59.6 against the forecasted 55.8 and supported Euro.

For July, the German ZEW Economic Sentiment dropped to 59.3 from the expected 60.1 and weighed on Euro that additional caped gain in EUR/USD pair. On the other hand, the Consumer Price Index for May rose to 0.6% against the forecasted 0.5% and supported the U.S. dollar from the American side. The Core CPI for May came in as 0.2% against the expected 0.1% and supported the U.S. dollar. The strong U.S. dollar failed to turn EUR/USD’s gains into losses.

On Thursday, the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision and release its monetary policy statement. According to analysts, they expect major policy changes next week. The ECB awaits more data on the economic outlook, developments on the fiscal front, and the impact of its measures to decide on further policy changes.

Meanwhile, the rising numbers of coronavirus cases from the U.S. pushed California’s state government to impose renewed lockdown measures to contain the spread and avoid the second wave of coronavirus. The most populous state of the United States under lockdown weighed heavily on local currency. The weak U.S. dollar against its rival currency Euro as the renewed lockdown measures imposed economic recovery threats also weighed on EUR/USD pair on Tuesday.


Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.1345     1.1430

1.1292     1.1462

1.1260     1.1514

Pivot Point: 1.1377

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EURUSD is testing Triple Top resistance around 1.1415 level, but the recent daily candle is bullish engulfing, which may drive the bullish trend in the EUR/USD pair. On the higher side, a bullish breakout of the 1.1415 level can extend bullish bias until the 1.1490 level. On the lower side, support stays at 1.1380 and 1.1365 level.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.25545 after placing a high of 1.25634 and a low of 1.24798. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained flat throughout the day. The pair GBP/USD during early trading session lost its ground and faced some heavy selling pressure on the back of poor than expected GDP data from the U.K.  

The pair dropped to a one-week low level near 1.24800 level and then reversed its direction in the late trading session and closed the day at the same level it started its day. The pair witnessed some heavy selling pressure on Tuesday for the second consecutive day, followed by the U.K. monthly GDP report’s disappointing release. The report suggested that the economy of the U.K. expanded n may by 1.8% while it was previously expected to expand by 5%, and hence, GBP suffered. The less than expected expansion in the U.K. economy could be associated with the lack of progress in the post-Brexit talks that ultimately affect the British Pound.

The pair started to decline and reached two weeks low level on Tuesday. Other than GDP, many economic reports were also released on Tuesday from the U.K. At 11:00 GMT, the Construction Output for May decreased to 8.2% against the forecasted 14.9% and weighed on GBP and dragged GBP/USD pair with it. The Goods Trade Balance showed a deficit of 2.8B against the deficit of 8.2B and supported GBP. However, the Index of Services 3m/3m came in as -18.9% against the expected -16.9% and weighed on GBP that caused a decline of GBP/USD pair.

The Industrial Production for May declined to 6.0% from the expected 6.2% and weighed on British Pound that added further in GBP/USD pair’s downward movement. For May, the Manufacturing Production increased 8.4% from the expected 7.5% and supported British Pound that kept a check on additional losses in GBP/USD pair.

On the other hand, from the American side, the Consumer Price Index for May increased to 0.6% against the expected 0.5% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Core CPI for May came in as 0.2% against the expected 0.1% and helped the U.S. dollar. The strong U.S. dollar added further in the losses of the GBP/USD pair.

Apart from weak GDP data, the pair declined to its one week lowest level on the back of the decreased risk-on market sentiment. The concerns about the deteriorating US-China relations and increased coronavirus cases worldwide kept the risk appetite under pressure that added further in GBP/USD pair’s daily losses.

The number of COVID-19 cases globally has reached 13 million marks, and Johns Hopkins University data has shown that the cases jumped by one million over the last five days. In response to this, the World Health organization said that if protocols were not followed, then pandemic would only worsen.

This resulted in demand for the U.S. dollar as hopes about quick economic recovery fall after many countries announced re-imposing restrictions to curb the virus’s spread. The demand for safe-haven U.S. dollar was also supported by the fresh tensions between the U.S. & China over the South China Sea. Strong USD weighed on GBP/USD pair on Tuesday. There were no latest updates on Tuesday, including traders continued following fundamentals & coronavirus updates on Brexit front.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.2499     1.2587

1.2445     1.2621

1.2410     1.2675

Pivot point: 1.2533

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading with a bullish bias as it has violated the strong resistance level of 1.2575 level. Above this, the next target is expected to be 1.2625 level. The 50 EMA is likely to extend support at 1.2570 level, and it can lead the GBP/USD prices further higher until 1.2660 levels. The RSI and MACD are both supporting bullish bias in the pair. Let’s consider taking buy trades above 1.2533 level today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 107.233 after placing a high of 107.432 and a low of 107.116. Overall the movement of the USD/JPY pair remained bearish throughout the day. At 9:30 GMT, the Revised Industrial production for May from Japan came in as -8.9% against the expected -8.4% and weighed on Japanese Yen.

At 15:00 GMT, the NFIB Small Business Index for June raised to 100.6 from the expected 97.5 and supported the U.S. dollar. At 17:30 GMT, the Consumer Price Index for June increased to 0.6 % from the expected 0.5% and supported the U.S. dollar. For June, the Core CPI also rose to 0.2% against the expected 0.1% and supported the U.S. dollar.

On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard offered a downbeat assessment of risk ahead. She said that the path ahead for the U.S. economy was under the clouds of high uncertainty, and the Federal Reserve should use forward guidance and large scale asset purchases for a sustained period to help the recovery.

In a virtual event hosted by the National Association for Business Economics, Brainard said that the pandemic was the key driver of the economy’s course. A thick fog of uncertainty still surrounded the U.S. and downside risks predominated.

The calls for further stimulus accommodation from the Federal Reserve by Brainard weighed on the U.S. dollar that dragged USD/JPY with it.

However, the uncontrolled rise in the numbers of coronavirus cases from the U.S. made investors cautious about holding the greenback, and hence, USD lost its traction and weighed on the USD/JPY pair.

The losses in the U.S. dollar were extended after many countries reported renewed lockdown measures to help control the virus’s spread. The California State, which is considered the most populous state of America, also imposed renewed restrictions and weighed on the U.S. dollar as its economic recovery would be difficult.

The cities and states imposed lockdown measures on the back of warning given by the World Health Organization that pandemic could only worsen if countries failed to follow strict precautions. In response to this, Hong Kong, Philippines, Hungary, Australia, and California announced lockdown measures. These restrictions imposed negative pressure on market sentiment as it will affect the global economic recovery.

Meanwhile, Beijing announced sanctions on Lockheed Martin for his involvement in the latest U.S. arms sale to Chinese-claimed Taiwan. This raised the ongoing tensions between the U.S. & China that were already heightened due to the South China Sea issue. The lockdown mentioned above restrictions and ongoing US-China tensions raised a safe-haven appeal that supported Japanese Yen and weighed on USD/JPY pair.


Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

107.10     107.43

106.94     107.60

106.77     107.75

Pivot point: 107.27

 USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Wednesday, the USD/JPY is trading with a bearish bias at 106.997 to consolidate within a wide trading range of 107.350 to 106.950. Recently the USD/JPY pair has crossed below 50 EMA, which extended support at 107.100 level, including now the same level is going to work as a resistance. The bearish breakout of the 106.900 level can extend the selling trend until 107.620 and 106.37 level. The MACD and RSI support bearish bias, and we may take a selling trade below 107.27 today. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, July 14 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – U.S. Inflation Report Ahead! 

On the news side, the economic calendar is fully loaded with a series of high impact economic events, especially the UK GDP, and the Inflation figures from Germany and the U.S. Most of the action will be seen during the U.S. session upon inflation figures.

On the news side, the economic calendar is fully loaded with a series of high impact economic events, especially the UK GDP, and the Inflation figures from Germany and the U.S. Most of the action will be seen during the U.S. session upon inflation figures.

On the news side, the economic calendar is fully loaded with a series of high impact economic events, especially the UK GDP, and the Inflation figures from Germany and the U.S. Most of the action will be seen during the U.S. session upon inflation figures.

Economic Events to Watch Today 

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.13424 after placing a high of 1.13746 and a low of 1.12976. Overall the movement of the EUR/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. The EUR/USD pair extended its previous day’s gains and jumped sharply on Monday against the U.S. dollar ahead of key developments in European Union later this week. Euro is likely to face a volatile week ahead as European Central Bank is set to retain its monetary policy conference on Thursday, and an E.U. Summit will also take place on Friday.

The ECB will likely hold its rates unchanged on Thursday that has drawn traders’ attention over the speech of ECB president Christine Lagarde, which could include some clues about future policy actions.

The ECB meeting could be shadowed by the E.U. Summit when all 27 member states of the European Union will meet, and bloc’s leaders will debate over the European Commission’s coronavirus recovery plan. The plan needs the backing of all 27 member states that made it difficult for compromise.

Germany and Italy have shown their consent and backed the E.U.’s 750 Billion euros recovery plan ahead of Friday’s meeting to appease other member states who have voiced concerns over the distribution of stimulus.

The Frugal Four, including Netherland, Sweden, Denmark, and Austria, have insisted that the funds be released as loans rather than grants or subsidies. The ongoing demand for the single currency can be seen by the week’s strong start for the Euro. On the flip side, the U.S. dollar was on the low track on Monday due to improved risk appetite after optimism raised in hopes of potential virus vaccine. The weaker U.S. dollar against its rival currency Euro gave a push to EUR/USD prices on Monday.

On the data front, at 11:00 GMT, the German WPI Wholesale Price Index for June came in as 0.6% compared to May’s -0.6%. From the American side, the Federal Budget Balance showed that in June, there was a deficit of 864.1 Billion against the expected 860 Billion and supported the U.S. dollar that kept a lid on additional gains in EUR/USD pair.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.1459
  • R2 1.1406
  • R1 1.1368

Pivot Point 1.1315

  • S1 1.1278
  • S2 1.1224
  • S3 1.1187

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

On the 4 hour timeframe, the EUR/USD pair has violated an upward trendline, which was extending support at 1.1341 level, and now, this level will work as a resistance for the EUR/USD. On the lower side, the EUR/USD pair may find the next support at 1.1304 and 1.1265 level. The EUR/USD’s selling bias seems dominant since the violation of an upward trendline. We should consider taking selling trades below the 1.1345 level today. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.25531 after placing a high of 1.26661 and a low of 1.25500. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained bearish throughout the day. On Monday, the pair GBP/USD failed to extend its previous day’s bullish trend and started to decline because of downbeat comments from BOE’s Governor Bailey and persistent Brexit uncertainty ahead of the U.K.’s deadline’s official departure from E.U.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said on Monday that he thought that Britain’s economy was recovering, but it had a long way to go with the outlooks for jobs. He said that with the economies re-opened, the economy seems like it has come back, but there was a long way to go because a lot of people were still jobless.

Bailey’s downbeat comments weighed on Cable and dragged the Cable pair GBP/USD on the downside on Monday. Bailey also said that the Bank of England was looking at whether it should create a digital currency as it has huge implications on the nature of payments and society. He also acknowledged that since the coronavirus pandemic has escalated, there had been calls to step back from the shift away from Libor, which is used to price trillions of dollars of financial contracts.

However, he said that coronavirus’s shock has only reinforced the importance of removing the dependency of financial systems on Libor in a timely way. He warned lenders and borrowers to place their transition plans because if they think that the deadline to shift away from Libor of 2021 will be extended, then they were wrong.

On Brexit front, the U.K. government set to build 10-12 new Brexit border customs and control sites across the country to strengthen the mission to take back control from the E.U. The Cabinet Minister Michael Gove defended his plans for new post-Brexit border infrastructure after the opposition party said that the government was unprepared.

 Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.277
  • R2 1.2697
  • R1 1.2654

Pivot Point 1.2581

  • S1 1.2538
  • S2 1.2465
  • S3 1.2421

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading with a bearish bias, especially after crossing below 50 EMA support level of 1.2570. This level is now working as resistance, and the Cable can show further bearish bias below 1.2570 level. Closing below this level can lead the GBP/USD pair towards 1.25200 level. The MACD and RSI are holding in a selling zone, and the 50 EMA, which is providing resistance at 1.2570, is also demonstrating the strong sell signal. Let’s consider taking sell trades below 1.2570 level. At the same time, second selling can be placed below the 1.2515 level today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY was closed at 107.287 after placing a high of 107.316 and a low of 106.785. Overall the movement of the USD/JPY pair remained bullish throughout the day. The USD/JPY pair after falling for three consecutive days rose on Monday amid improving risk sentiment in the market that undermined the Japanese Yen and contributed to pair gains.

A report suggesting an effective coronavirus vaccine gave hopes and recovered optimism in the market. It also helped equity indexes start the new week on firm foot. The S&P 500, Dow Jones and NASDAQ were up from 1%-1.2% on the day and weighed on safe-haven Japanese Yen. The weaker Yen against the U.S. dollar gave a push to USD/JPY prices on Monday.

As for the vaccine new, on Sunday, several media reports suggested that Russia has become the first nation to complete the clinical trials of a COVID-19 vaccine on humans. The trials have reported that in initial results, the vaccine was safe and effective to an extent. Russia celebrated the supposed “world’s first COVID-19 vaccine”; however, it seemed premature as more research was still needed.

However, this news raised optimism and risk sentiment around the market and decreased the safe-haven appeal. The risk weighed on safe-haven Japanese yen and dragged the pair USD/JPY with itself. On the data front, at 9:30 GMT, the Tertiary Industry Activity from Japan came in as -2.1% against the expectations of -3.7% for May. It supported Japanese Yen and additional capped gains in currency pair.

From the American side, the Federal Budget Balance for June showed a deficit of 864.1 Billion against the forecasted 860 Billion. It supported the U.S. dollar, which added further in the currency pair daily gains.

On the other hand, The Director-General of WHO, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreysus, warned that too many countries were moving towards their destruction as the virus was the number one public enemy. If basic protocols were not followed, the pandemic might get worse and worse and worse.

Tedros said that on Sunday, from across the globe, 230,000 new cases appeared, out of which 80% were from 10 nations and 20% from just two countries. Tedros also said that the WHO had still not received formal notifications of the U.S. pullout that Trump announced. This downbeat statement by WHO raised concerns about global economic recovery and weighed on risk sentiment that kept a check on additional currency pair gains.

Support and Resistance    

  • R3 108.1
  • R2 107.91
  • R1 107.59

Pivot Point 107.39

  • S1 107.07
  • S2 106.87
  • S3 106.55

 USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Tuesday, the USD/JPY continues to consolidate in a wide trading range of 107.350 to 106.950. Recently the USD/JPY pair has violated a downward channel, which extended resistance at 107.100 level. Simultaneously, the USDJPY pair has also crossed over 50 periods exponential moving average, which also supports the bullish bias in the USD/JPY pair. For now, the bullish breakout of the 107.340 level can extend the buying trend until 107.620 and 107.900 level. The MACD and RSI support bullish bias, and we may take a buying trade over 107.350 today. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

AUD/USD Doji Set To Drive Bullish Correction – Who’s Up for It?

Entry Price – Buy 0.69468

Entry Price – Buy 0.69468

The AUD/USD currency pair extended its early-day recovery moves and rose to a session high around the 0.6945-56 region. However, the bullish bias in the currency pair could be attributed to the upbeat China trade data, which showed the unexpected jump in the imports and exports. On the other hand, the risk-on market sentiment backed by the multiple factors undermined the perceived riskier Australian dollar. It kept a lid on any additional gains in the currency pair. The broad-based U.S. dollar bullish bias triggered by the rise in the U.S. bond yields also capped the further upside move in the currency pair.

For the month of June, trade figures from China suggested that the world’s largest commodity player, including the key customer of Australia, gained further momentum in its post-coronavirus (COVID-19) recoveries, witnessed by the fresh report that showed the Exports and Imports crossed the previous +1.4% and -12.7% figures with fresh +4.3% and +6.2% marks respectively.

However, the currency pair gains could also be attributed to the National Australia Bank’s (NAB) Business Confidence and Business Conditions upbeats numbers for June, which initially boosted the riskier Australian dollar and contributed to the pair’s gains. At the data front, the NAB Business Conditions recovered from -24 prior and -39 forecast to -7, whereas Business Confidence rose beyond -87 expected and -20 previous to +1.

On the other hand, the increasing cases of coronavirus in Australia’s most populous states and 35 states of the United States overshadowed the prospects of V-shaped global economic recovery. As in result, Australia’s Prime Minister decided to re-impose lockdown and border restrictions to contain the spread of coronavirus cases, which exerted some downside pressure on the Aussie currency and limited the pair’s gains.

The number of COVID-19 cases globally passed the 13 million mark as of July 14, according to Johns Hopkins University data, with more than 565,000 people died in the last 7-months due to the virus. On the other hand, Brazil and India also followed the footstep of the U.S. They became nations with the 2nd highest number of appearing cases after the U.S. Elsewhere, the figures from Australia, and some parts of Asia were also increasing day by day.

However, the gloomy outlook was further bolstered by the ongoing tussle between the United States and China. The conflict between both parties was further fueled after the Trump administration rejected China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea. The U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo blamed China for threatening other claimant states in the South China Sea. As in result, the Dragon Nation also fired shots on the United States while saying that the U.S. was trying to inflame tensions in the disputed waters.

Although, the US-China tussle got an additional pace after China showed a willingness to impose new sanctions on the U.S.’ defense company, Lockheed Martin, in response to planned arms sales to Taiwan. Let us recall, Dragon Nation previously announced tit-for-tat sanctions on four U.S. officials, including senators Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio in response to Washington’s imposed visa restrictions on Chinese officials over the treatment of the Uyghur community in the northwestern province of Xinjiang. These headlines favored the risk-off market sentiment and kept the currency pair restricted.

As per the latest statement, Japanese Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura said that his government could declare an emergency if infections grew further. Besides, the number of COVID-19 infections has spiked in the past week, with Tokyo reporting more than 200 cases for three straight days. However, these above headlines added further strength to the risk-off market mood.


The AUD/USD is trading in between the sideways trading range of 0.6969 to 0.6925, while a bullish breakout of 0.6969 will help determine the next pair’s movement. On the higher side, the AUD/USD pair may find the next resistance at 0.6995 as soon as 0.6969 gets violated. The MACD and RSI are heading into a bullish zone, and these are supporting the bullish bias in pair. Here’s a trade plan below…

Entry Price – Buy 0.69468

Stop Loss – 0.69068

Take Profit – 0.69868

Risk to Reward – 1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$400/ +$400

Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.

iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368

Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

Categories
Forex Signals

USD/CAD Retest Triple Top – Let’s Capture a Quick Sell!

Entry Price – Sell 1.36131

Entry Price – Sell 1.36131

During Tuesday’s early European trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair succeeded extend its previous 4-day winning streak and hit the session high just above 1.3600 level mainly due to the broad-based U.S. dollar strength backed by the downbeat trading sentiment. On the other hand, the reason for the currency pair gains could also be attributed to the weaker oil prices, which eventually undermined the demand for the commodity-linked currency the loonie and contributed to the currency pair gains. At the moment, the USD/CAD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3622 and consolidating in the range between 1.3596 – 1.3646.

Considering the overall market condition, the investors seemed cautious about the ever-increasing number of coronavirus cases globally and the probability of renewed lockdowns restrictions to control the spread, which eventually overshadowed the prospects for a sharp V-shaped global economic recovery. Detail suggests that the number of COVID-19 cases globally passed the 13 million mark as of July 14, according to Johns Hopkins University data, with more than 565,000 people died in the last 7-months due to the virus, as Global institute reports’ tally.

On the other hand, Brazil and India also followed the U.S. footstep. They became nations with the 2nd highest number of appearing cases after the U.S. Elsewhere, the figures from Australia and some parts of Asia were also increasing day by day.

Apart from the Virus woes, the tussle between the U.S. and China over Hong Kong security law remained on the card. It is worth reporting that the U.S. State Department rejected China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea. The U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo blamed China for threatening other claimant states in the South China Sea. As in result, the Dragon Nation also fired shots on the United States while saying that the U.S. was trying to inflame tensions in the disputed waters.

Whereas, the US-China tussle got any additional pace in the last hour after China decided to impose new sanctions on the U.S.’ defense company, Lockheed Martin, in response to planned arms sales to Taiwan. It is worth recalling that the Dragon Nation previously announced tit-for-tat sanctions on four U.S. officials, including senators Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio in return to Washington’s imposed visa restrictions on Chinese officials over the treatment of the Uyghur community in the northwestern province of Xinjiang. These headlines favored the risk-off market sentiment and kept the currency pair gains restricted.

As in result, the broad-based U.S. dollar reported gains and took bids on the day as investors preferred the safe-haven asset mainly due to concerns about the mounting coronavirus cases. However, the gains in the U.S. dollar kept the pair higher. Whereas, the U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies gained 0.03% to 96.537 by 9:36 AM ET (2:36 AM GMT).

At the crude oil front, the WTI crude oil prices remain under strong selling pressure. However, the decline in crude oil could be attributed to the risk-off market sentiment triggered by record-breaking new coronavirus cases in several U.S. states, which eventually overshadowed concern about economic recovery. The bearish trend in crude oil was further bolstered by the expectations that OPEC+ might ease output cuts, which led to a sharp fall in oil prices.

On the technical front, the USD/CAD is testing the double top resistance level of 1.3627 level and closing of candles below this level can drive selling while closing above this can trigger buying trend in the market. We have already opened a sell trade below 1.36131 and the idea is to target 1.35731 take profit today. Good luck

Entry Price – Sell 1.36131

Stop Loss – 1.36531

Take Profit – 1.35731

Risk to Reward – 1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$400/ +$400

Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.

iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368

Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

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Forex Signals

USD/JPY Breaking Above Downward Channel – Update on Signal!

During Monday’s European trading session, the USD/JPY currency pair succeeded in stopping its early-day losses and took some modest bids above the 107.00 marks. However, the currency pair is trading with a mild bullish bias mainly due to the risk-on market sentiment triggered by incoming positive economic data, which raised hopes of a swift economic recovery and remained supportive of the upbeat market mood. However, the risk-on market sentiment undermined the safe-haven Japanese yen and provided a modest lift to the USD/JPY pair.

During Monday’s European trading session, the USD/JPY currency pair succeeded in stopping its early-day losses and took some modest bids above the 107.00 marks. However, the currency pair is trading with a mild bullish bias mainly due to the risk-on market sentiment triggered by incoming positive economic data, which raised hopes of a swift economic recovery and remained supportive of the upbeat market mood. However, the risk-on market sentiment undermined the safe-haven Japanese yen and provided a modest lift to the USD/JPY pair.

During Monday’s European trading session, the USD/JPY currency pair succeeded in stopping its early-day losses and took some modest bids above the 107.00 marks. However, the currency pair is trading with a mild bullish bias mainly due to the risk-on market sentiment triggered by incoming positive economic data, which raised hopes of a swift economic recovery and remained supportive of the upbeat market mood. However, the risk-on market sentiment undermined the safe-haven Japanese yen and provided a modest lift to the USD/JPY pair.

On the other hand, the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness in the wake of risk-on market sentiment kept a lid on any additional gains in the currency pair, at least for now. At this moment, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 107.08 and consolidating in the range between 106.78 and 107.09.

The holding of bonds and other assets by the U.S. Federal Reserve was contracted for a fourth straight week and declined below $7 trillion. According to Central banks, the total balance sheet size of the Fed fell about $88 billion to $6.97 trillion on Thursday. It was the largest weekly drop in 11 years, from $7.06 trillion of last week to $6.97 trillion this week.
The main driver of the Fed’s balance sheet decline was the outstanding repurchase agreements (repos) – that fell to zero from $51.2 billion a week earlier.

Gilead Sciences announced that its antiviral drug Remdesivir could reduce the risk of death for severely sick coronavirus patients by 62%; however, more research was needed. This positive news weighed on the safe-haven Japanese Yen and capped on additional losses in USD/JPY pair.

Moreover, the risk-on market sentiment was further bolstered by the hopes of further stimulus from the U.S. due to the downbeat Producer Price Index (PPI), also backed by the comments from the President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Robert Kaplan.



Technically, the USD/JPY is crossing over 106.850, which will provide support to the Japanese pair. The pair is trading with a bullish bias of above 106.850 support, and crossing above 106.850 is likely to lead the USD/JPY prices towards 107.400 level. Here’s a quick update on our signal.

Entry Price – Buy 107.134

Stop Loss – 106.734

Take Profit – 107.534

Risk to Reward – 1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$400/ +$400

Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.

iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368

Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, July 13 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – U.S. Federal Budget Balance In Focus 

On the news front, eyes will be European German WPI data, Canadian BOE Gov Bailey Speaks, and Federal Budget Balance. But none of them is highly impacted and may not drive major movements in the market. Let’s focus on the technical side of the market.

On the news front, eyes will be European German WPI data, Canadian BOE Gov Bailey Speaks, and Federal Budget Balance. But none of them is highly impacted and may not drive major movements in the market. Let’s focus on the technical side of the market.

On the news front, eyes will be European German WPI data, Canadian BOE Gov Bailey Speaks, and Federal Budget Balance. But none of them is highly impacted and may not drive major movements in the market. Let’s focus on the technical side of the market.

Economic Events to Watch Today 

  

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.12984 after placing a high of 1.13245 and a low of 1.12545. Overall the movement of EUR/USD remained bullish throughout the day. The EUR/USD pair left behind its bearish stance and started posting gains on Friday due to better than expected macroeconomic data from the European side and weak data from the U.S. side. The downside pressure on greenback supported the upside movement of the EUR/USD pair.

The tone around the U.S. dollar remained negative due to the increased number of coronavirus cases from many states that reached more than 60,000 per day. Moreover, the number of deaths was also increasing that raised bars for renewed restrictions. The potential lockdown measures weighed on the U.S. dollar as it would affect the U.S. economy. The downbeat U.S. dollar added strength to EUR/USD pair on Friday.

On the other hand, ECB said that Bulgaria and Croatia were accepted to be a part of the ERM-2 mechanism, a mandatory stage for joining the euro, and beginning the currency bloc’s first expansion in half a decade. After the approval from the eurozone finance minister and ECB officials, the two eastern European nations will also join the bloc’s banking union from October 1.

Following the procedure, both nations must spend at least two years in ERM-2 before starting the practical preparations to join the euro that will roughly take another year. So, the estimated earliest year for their membership will be 2023. This positive news added further in the EUR/USD gains.

On the data front, at 11:45 GMT, the French Industrial Production for May increased to 19.6% from the forecasted 15.2% and supported euro. At 13:00 GMT, the Italian Industrial Production for May was also raised to 42.1% from the forecasted 23.5 % and supported euro that ultimately helped the EUR/USD currency pair to post gains.

From the American side, the Core PPI for June declined to -0.3% from the forecasted 0.1% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. At 17:30 GMT, the PPI for June also declined to -0.2% from the expected 0.4% and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added further in the upward trend of EUR/USD pair.

Next week, the key data would be about the ECB’s next policy meeting on the coming Thursday, and from the U.S. side, eyes will be on Core Retail Sales & Retail Sales data on Thursday. A repetition of recent comments is expected in ECB’s next policy meeting that means ECB will reiterate its stance towards supporting a recovery.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.1459
  • R2 1.1406
  • R1 1.1368

Pivot Point 1.1315

  • S1 1.1278
  • S2 1.1224
  • S3 1.1187

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD pair has violated a downward trendline, which extended resistance at 1.1291 level, and now this level is going to work as a support for the EUR/USD. On the higher side, the EUR/USD may find resistance at 1.1350 level. Above this, the next target can be seen around the 1.1390 level. Bullish bias seems dominant today.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.26217 after placing a high of 1.26640 and a low of 1.25666. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. The fresh supply in the U.S. dollar gave strength to GBP/USD pair on the last day of the week, and the pair rallied around 90 pips. Greenback struggled to gain attraction on Friday despite the increasing number of coronavirus cases. The fresh leg down in the U.S. Treasury bond yields dragged the U.S. dollar and made it weaker.

The traders ignored the persistent Brexit uncertainties on Friday as the main driver of the GBP/USD was the U.S. dollar. The European Union’s top negotiator Michel Barnier said that talks on the post-Brexit relationship had made a little progress. However, there were still significant differences in several important issues. This also added some positive momentum to Cable pairs.

On the data front, the U.S. dollar was weak due to poor than expected PPI reports. At 17:30 GMT, the Core PPI for June dropped to -0.3% from the expected 0.1%, and PPI was declined to -0.2% from the forecasted 0.4% and pushed the GBP/USD pair higher. While from Great Britain, the C.B. Leading Index for May came in as -1.4% compared to April’s -3.7%.

For the next week, coronavirus cases will remain dominant. Still, the calendar will also be under observation as U.K.’s GDP and claims will be announced, while from the U.S., the Consumer figures will remain under watch.

GDP for May will be released from the U.K. next Tuesday that could show some stability after a collapse of 20.4% in April. The most important data will release on Thursday about the jobs report. The Unemployment Rate is expected to increase to 4.7% in May after the remaining 3.9% in April. The government’s furlough scheme that was extended through October has helped keep unemployment low. Wages are expected to jump from 1% to 1.4% in the gauge, including bonuses.

From the U.S. side, the increasing number of coronavirus cases from Florida, California, Arizona, and Texas will remain under watch. However, on the data front, the key release will Retail Sales that are projected to rebound in June to 4.6%. The Core Consumer Price Index is expected to surge to 0.1% from the previous -0.1%.

 Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.277
  • R2 1.2697
  • R1 1.2654

Pivot Point 1.2581

  • S1 1.2538
  • S2 1.2465
  • S3 1.2421

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading with a bearish bias, especially after crossing below 50 EMA support level of 1.2570. This level is now working as resistance, and the Cable can show further bearish bias below 1.2570 level. Closing below this level can lead the GBP/USD pair towards 1.25200 level. The MACD and RSI are holding in a selling zone, and the 50 EMA, which is providing resistance at 1.2570, is also demonstrating the strong sell signal. Let’s consider taking sell trades below 1.2570 level today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 106.911 after placing a high of 107.262 and a low of 106.635. Overall the movement of USD/JPY remained bearish throughout the day. The pair USD/JPY extended its previous day losses and dropped for the 3rd consecutive day on the back of broad-based selling bias around the U.S. dollar. The pair dropped to over two weeks the lowest level in the wake of risk-off market sentiment that gave strength to safe-haven Japanese Yen.

The recent optimism regarding the sharp V-shaped economic recovery faded away quickly after the record increase in the number of daily reported COVID-19 cases in the U.S. on Thursday. The continuous surge in the number of appearing cases and deaths also pushed the risk-off market sentiment that weighed on the equity market.

The global fight to safety weighed on U.S. Treasury bond yields that prompted selling bias in the U.S. dollar. The weak U.S. dollar failed to lend any support to the USD/JPY pair. On the data front, the PPI from Japan was released at 04:50 GMT, dropped by 1.6% against the forecasted drop of 2.0%, and supported Japanese Yen. The strong Japanese yen added in the losses of the USD/JPY pair.

At 17:30 GMT, the Core PPI for June was dropped to -0.3% from the expected 0.1% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. For June, the PPI also dropped to -0.2% against the forecasted 0.4% and weighed on the U.S. dollar that also dragged USD/JPY Pair.

On the other hand, the largest one-day increase in any country since the pandemic started was reported in the U.S. as 65,000 cases alone on Thursday. This raised the market’s safe-haven appeal that gave a push to Japanese Yen and ultimately weighed on USD/JPY pair. Moreover, the Federal Reserve said that in June, it purchased $1.8 Billion in corporate bonds to keep U.S. interest rates lower and ensure that large companies could borrow by selling bonds. 

The bonds were purchased to keep interest rates on corporate bonds lower, making it harder for companies to borrow by selling debts. A Fed official announced this week that recently Fed has slowed down its bond-buying and if the market remained relatively healthy, then the central bank will continue to do so.

Support and Resistance    

  • R3 108.1
  • R2 107.91
  • R1 107.59

Pivot Point 107.39

  • S1 107.07
  • S2 106.87
  • S3 106.55

 USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is holding at 106.850, and this is going to provide solid support to the USD/JPY pair for now. However, this level’s bearish breakout has a huge odds of driving more selling until 106.450 level today. At the moment, the pair is trading with a selling bias of above 106.850 support. The USD/JPY is dropping below 50 periods EMA on the hourly charts, which supports the Japanese pair’s selling bias. Let’s look for selling trades below 107.250 today. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

AUD/USD Tests 50 EMA – Quick Update on Signal!

During Friday’s early European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair failed to stop its previous session losing streak and was depressed near 0.6935 level of broad-based U.S. dollar strength triggered by the worst situation coronavirus. The risk-off market sentiment backed by the multiple factors weakened the Australian dollar’s perceived riskier and contributed to the currency pair gains. At the moment, the AUD/USD currency pair is currently trading at 0.6947 and consolidating in the range between 0.6924 – 0.6966. However, the investors seemed cautious to place any strong bids due to light trading on the day ahead.

During Friday’s early European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair failed to stop its previous session losing streak and was depressed near 0.6935 level of broad-based U.S. dollar strength triggered by the worst situation coronavirus. The risk-off market sentiment backed by the multiple factors weakened the Australian dollar’s perceived riskier and contributed to the currency pair gains. At the moment, the AUD/USD currency pair is currently trading at 0.6947 and consolidating in the range between 0.6924 – 0.6966. However, the investors seemed cautious to place any strong bids due to light trading on the day ahead.

During Friday’s early European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair failed to stop its previous session losing streak and was depressed near 0.6935 level of broad-based U.S. dollar strength triggered by the worst situation coronavirus. The risk-off market sentiment backed by the multiple factors weakened the Australian dollar’s perceived riskier and contributed to the currency pair gains. At the moment, the AUD/USD currency pair is currently trading at 0.6947 and consolidating in the range between 0.6924 – 0.6966. However, the investors seemed cautious to place any strong bids due to light trading on the day ahead.

The ever-increasing cases of coronavirus in Australia’s most populous states and the United States overshadowed V-shaped global economic recovery prospects. As in result, Australia’s Prime Minister decided to re-impose lockdowns and border restrictions to contain the spread of coronavirus cases. As per the latest report, the U.S. cases crossed a total of 3.0 million cases and reported over 60,000 cases on Thursday. Furthermore, over 12.2 million cases and 550,000 deaths globally were reported as of July 10, as per John Hopkins University data. Most of the states like Florida, Texas, and California, reported a record-high number of new cases on Thursday.

However, the gloomy outlook was further bolstered by the ongoing tussle between the United States and China. The conflict between both parties was further fueled after Trump administration member Mike Pompeo announced visa restrictions on the People’s Republic of China (PRC) government and Chinese Communist Party officials over creating hardships for foreigners to visit Tibet. The United States imposed another sanction on the highest-ranking Chinese official over alleged human rights abuses against the Uighur Muslim minority, which exerted some downside pressure on the risk-tone and contributed to the currency pair declines.

As in result, the broad-based U.S. dollar flashed green and took bids on the day as investors preferred the safe-haven asset mainly due to concerns about the mounting coronavirus cases. However, the gains in the U.S. dollar kept the pair under pressure. Whereas, the U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies gained 0.13% to 96.802 by 10:06 AM ET (3:06 AM GMT). As well as, the gain in the U.S. dollar was further supported by the reports that the U.S. Supreme Court ruled out that Democratic-led congressional committees were allowed to obtain U.S. President Donald Trump’s financial records, as reported by Reuters. 

On the positive side, the Japanese Prime Minister (PM) Shinzo Abe and Australian PM Scott Morrison talked yesterday via a virtual summit. They showed readiness to accelerate preparations to resume limited travel among business people. This news helped the AUD/USD currency pair to limit its deeper losses.


The market participants will keep their eyes on the trade/virus updates due to the lack of major economic data today. As well as, the sentiment on the Asian indices and USD dynamics will be closely followed for the pair’s next directions. In the meantime, the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) will be key to watch. 

Daily Support and Resistance

S1 0.6847

S2 0.6906

S3 0.6943

Pivot Point 0.6965

R1 0.7003

R2 0.7024

R3 0.7083

The AUD/USD tested the double bottom pattern at 0.69300 level before bouncing off to 0.6965 level. On the hourly timeframe, the AUD/USD pair is testing the 50 periods EMA at a 0.6960 level, and the closing of candles below 0.6956 suggests the chances of selling trend until the level of 0.6930. The MACD is still in the buying zone; however, the 50 periods EMA is likely to push the pair lower until the level of 0.6930. Follow a quick trade plan below..

Categories
Forex Signals

Overbought USD/CAD Braces for Retracement – Who’s Up for Selling?

Entry Price – Sell 1.36003

Entry Price – Sell 1.36003

During Friday’s early European trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair succeeded in breaking its previous day consolidation phase and hit the 1-1/2-week high just above mid-1.3600 level, mainly due to the broad-based U.S. dollar strength backed by the downbeat trading sentiment.

On the other hand, the reason for the currency pair gains could also be attributed to the weaker oil prices, which eventually undermined the demand for the commodity-linked currency the loonie and contributed to the currency pair gains. At the moment, the USD/CAD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3614 and consolidating in the range between 1.3574 – 1.3632.

Investors seemed cautious about the increasing number of new coronavirus cases globally and the probability of renewed lockdowns restrictions to control the spread, which eventually overshadowed the prospects for a sharp V-shaped global economic recovery. As per the latest report, the U.S. cases crossed a total of 3.0 million marks and reported over 60,000 cases Over 12.2 million cases and 550,000 deaths globally were reported as of July 10, as per John Hopkins University data. Most of the states like Florida, Texas, and California, reported a record-high number of new cases on Thursday.

However, the gloomy outlook was further bolstered by the ongoing tussle between the United States and China. The conflict between both parties was further fueled after Trump administration member Mike Pompeo announced visa restrictions on the People’s Republic of China (PRC) government and Chinese Communist Party officials over creating hardships for foreigners to visit Tibet. As well as, the United States imposed another sanction on the highest-ranking Chinese official over alleged human rights abuses against the Uighur Muslim minority which exerted some downside pressure on the risk-tone and contributed to the currency pair declines.


The USD/CAD pair is examining a double top resistance mark of 1.3635, and that is where we can anticipate a sell-off in the USD/CAD currency pair. On the 4 hour chart, the closing of a selling candle, known as engulfing candle, suggests chances of selling unto 1.3580 level. Here’s a quick trade plan.

Entry Price – Sell 1.36003

Stop Loss – 1.36403

Take Profit – 1.35603

Risk to Reward – 1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$400/ +$400

Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.

iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368

Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

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Forex Signals

USD/JPY Breaks Below Sideways Range – Brace for Sell!

Entry Price – Sell 107.014

Entry Price – Sell 107.014

The USD/JPY failed to stop its Asian session early losses and took additional offers around below the mid-108.00 level. The risk-off market sentiment backed the move in the wake of the second wave of coronavirus, which eventually underpinned the safe-haven Japanese yen and contributed to the currency pair declines.

The Japanese yen gains could also be associated with upbeat reports about easing travel restrictions. However, the worries over the resurgence of the Covid-19 virus exerted bearish pressure on the risk sentiment and underpinned the safe-haven Japanese yen. As per the latest report, the U.S. cases crossed a total of 3.0 million marks and reported over 60,000 cases on Thursday.

Furthermore, over 12.2 million cases and 550,000 deaths globally were reported as of July 10, as per John Hopkins University data. Most of the states like Florida, Texas, and California, said a record-high number of new cases on Thursday. According to Goldman Sachs, hospital capacity in Arizona, Texas, and Florida has filled up by COVID-19 patients, and state officials are forced to consider additional measures.

As a result, the risk-off market sentiment is expected to extend into Europe, as witnessed by the S&P 500 futures’ sharp losses. However, the losses in the U.S. stock futures help boost the safe-haven bids for the safe-haven Japanese yen.

Apart from the Virus woes, the tussle between the U.K. and China over Beijing’s Hong Kong security law remained on the card but refrained from offering any further negative news.

At the USD front, the broad-based U.S. dollar succeeded in extending its previous session gains due to new coronavirus cases in the United States that further undermined the case for a quick economic recovery, which pushes the traders towards safe-haven assets. However, the U.S. dollar gains become a key factor that kept the lid on the pair’s additional losses.

As per the Kyodo news agency report, Japan has shown willingness to discuss ten countries and regions, including China, South Korea, and Taiwan, about easing travel restrictions. Whereas, the Japanese Prime Minister (PM) Shinzo Abe and Australian PM Scott Morrison talked yesterday via a virtual summit and showed readiness to accelerate preparations to resume limited travel among business people. This news also exerted some positive impact on the Japanese yen and contributed to the currency pair declines.

In the absence of the major data/events to be released on the day, the market traders will keep their eyes on the USD price dynamics and coronavirus headlines, which could play a key role in influencing the intraday momentum.


The USD/JPY was consolidating in a broad trading range of 107.800 to 107.250, which was finally violated during the Asian session. The pair is now holding at 106.850, and this is going to provide solid support to the USD/JPY pair for now. However, this level’s bearish breakout has a huge odds of driving more selling until 106.450 level today. At the moment, the pair is trading with a selling bias of above 106.850 support. Our trade got closed a bit early today, but we still secured 18 pips in it. Brace for next trades…

Entry Price – Sell 107.014

Stop Loss – 107.414

Take Profit – 106.614

Risk to Reward – 1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$400/ +$400

Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.

iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368

Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, July 10 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – US PPI Figures Ahead! 

On the news front, the eyes will remain on the Canadian labor market figures, and US PPI figures, which are expected to perform better than previous figures as the COVID19 driven lockdown is over, and people are back to jobs. We can expect CAD and USD to stay stronger today.

On the news front, the eyes will remain on the Canadian labor market figures, and US PPI figures, which are expected to perform better than previous figures as the COVID19 driven lockdown is over, and people are back to jobs. We can expect CAD and USD to stay stronger today.

On the news front, the eyes will remain on the Canadian labor market figures, and US PPI figures, which are expected to perform better than previous figures as the COVID19 driven lockdown is over, and people are back to jobs. We can expect CAD and USD to stay stronger today.

Economic Events to Watch Today 

  

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.12846 after placing a high of 1.13704 and a low of 1.12800. Overall the movement of the EUR/USD pair remained bearish throughout the day. The EUR/USD has hit its highest in four weeks on Wednesday amid market optimism but retreated from that on Thursday on the back of concerns like E.U. recovery package, U.S. jobless claims, and coronavirus cases from the U.S. & all over the world.

The Eurogroup held its meeting on Thursday to elect the new president, and Paschal Donohoe, Minister for Finance and Public Expenditure & Reform of Ireland was selected as the Eurogroup’s new president.

 The New president will take office from July 13, 2020, and serve for two and a half years. The first Eurogroup meeting under Paschal Donohoe has been planned for September 11, 2020.

Eurogroup is an informal body where ministers of euro area member states discuss common concerns as they share the Euro as a single currency. The focus of the discussion remains particularly on the coordination of economic policies. Eurogroup usually meets once in a month, on the eve of Economic & Financial Affairs Council meeting.

The risk tone around the market was faded away after the U.S. Trump Administration announced that it has planned to finalize the regulations this week that will bar the U.S. government from buying goods & services from any company that uses products from five Chinese companies including Huawei, Hikvision, and Dahua. This indicated a surge to the ongoing tensions between U.S. & China and raised safe-haven appeal that weighed on riskier EUR/USD currency pair, and hence, the pair started to fell on Thursday.

On the data front, the German Trade Balance was released at 11:00 GMT that showed a surplus of 7.6B against the expected 6.6B in May and supported the single currency Euro that capped on additional losses in EUR/USD pair.

From the U.S. side, the Unemployment Claims for last week were reported at 17:30 GMT, as 1.314M against the expected 1.375M, and supported the U.S. dollar that added in the losses of EUR/USD pair. Though the numbers came in less than expectations, they were still very big, and hence, investors gave a little attention to this data on Thursday.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.1459
  • R2 1.1406
  • R1 1.1368

Pivot Point 1.1315

  • S1 1.1278
  • S2 1.1224
  • S3 1.1187

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD pair has violated an upward trendline, which extended support at 1.1291 level, and now, this level will work as a resistance for the EUR/USD. On the lower side, the double bottom may extend support at 1.1262 level. Below this, the next support can be seen around the 1.1240 level. Bearish bias seems dominant today.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.26060 after placing a high of 1.26639 and a low of 1.25952. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained bearish throughout the day. The GBP/USD pair climbed to its highest level in three weeks in the earlier session on Thursday but failed to remain there and turned to the downside on the back of a strong U.S. dollar.

The greenback rose across the board as equity prices in the Wall Street Journal turned negative sharply right after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that President Trump cannot block his financial records to prosecutors.

Donald Trump has come under fire for not making his tax returns public as his predecessors. His lawyers have argued that he enjoyed total immunity while in the White House office and that Congress had no valid justification for examining the records. The U.S. stocks turned lower, and U.S. yields also moved to the downside. The U.S. dollar rose, and the DXY bounced back from 4 weeks lowest level to 96.70 level.

On the data front, at 04:50 GMT, the RICS House Price Balance from Great Britain came in as -15% against the expected -25% in June and supported single currency Cable that limited the additional losses in the pair.

However, on the U.S. side, the Unemployment Claims were released at 17:30 GMT. In last week 1.314M Americans applied for jobless benefits against the expected 1.375M and supported the U.S. dollar added further in the losses of GBP/USD pair on Thursday.

On Brexit front, the top E.U. negotiator, Michel Barnier, said on Thursday that talks between E.U. & U.K. would continue later this month. The Brexit trade talks broke up early for the week as Barnier warned that “significant divergences” remain between them.

He also urged E.U. national governments at the same time to be prepared for disruption at the end of the year as chances for no-deal were still high. He said that to overcome the significant divergences between both parties, his team would continue to work with patience, respect, and determination.

 Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.277
  • R2 1.2697
  • R1 1.2654

Pivot Point 1.2581

  • S1 1.2538
  • S2 1.2465
  • S3 1.2421

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading with a bearish bias, especially after crossing below 50 EMA support level of 1.2570. This level is now working as resistance, and the Cable can show further bearish bias below 1.2570 level. Closing below this level can lead the GBP/USD pair towards 1.25200 level. The MACD and RSI are holding in a selling zone, and the 50 EMA, which is providing resistance at 1.2570, is also demonstrating the strong sell signal. Let’s consider taking sell trades below 1.2570 level today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 107.199 after placing a high of 107.395 and 107.095. Overall the movement of USD/JPY remained bearish throughout the day. The USD/JPY pair rose in the earlier session on the back of U.S. dollar strength but couldn’t stay there due to strong Japanese Yen amid increased safe-haven demand and dropped to post losses.

On the data front, at 04:50 GMT, the Core Machinery Orders from Japan rose by 1.7% against the expected decline by 5.2% in May and supported Japanese Yen that weighed on USD/JPY pair. TheM2 Money Supply from Japan came in as 7.2% against the forecasted 5.6% and supported the Japanese Yen that added further in USD/JPY pair losses. At 10:59 GMT, the Prelim Machine Tool Orders came in line with the expectations of -32.0%.

From the U.S., at 00:00 GMT, the Consumer Credit for May showed a decline of 18.3B from the expected decline of 15.2B and weighed on the U.S. dollar that dragged the USD/JPY pair with itself. However, at 17:30 GMT, the U.S. Unemployment Claims for last week came in as 1.314M against the expected 1.375M and supported the U.S. dollar that helped limit losses in USD/JPY pair.

The U.S. dollar was strong across the board after the equities, and U.S. stocks in WSJ dropped to their lower levels due to the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the New York prosecutors can examine Trump’s financial records.

Donald Trump was criticized for not making hid financial records, including tax returns public like his predecessors. At the same time, his lawyers argued that he was immune to publish those records while he was in office and that Congress had no justification for seeking those records.

But on Thursday, U.S. Supreme Court ruled that President Trump cannot block the release of his tax returns and financial records to prosecutors.

On the other hand, data revealed that coronavirus had affected more than 3 million Americans so far, with a daily record of more than 60,000 cases and death tolls around 134,000.

Meanwhile, the U.S. & China relations also remained under highlights as the US Trump administration announced that this week the regulations would be finalized to block the U.S. government. The U.S. seems to restrict buying goods & services from any company that uses products from five Chinese companies, including Huawei, Hikvision, and Dahua. This also weighed on market tone and added in USD/JPY pair’s losses.

Support and Resistance    

  • R3 108.1
  • R2 107.91
  • R1 107.59

Pivot Point 107.39

  • S1 107.07
  • S2 106.87
  • S3 106.55

 USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY was consolidating in a broad trading range of 107.800 to 107.250, which was finally violated. The pair is now holding at 106.850, and this is going to provide solid support to the USD/JPY pair for now. However, this level’s bearish breakout has a huge odds of driving more selling until 106.450 level today. At the moment, the pair is trading with a selling bias of above 106.850 support. The USD/JPY is dropping below 50 periods EMA on the hourly charts, which supports the Japanese pair’s selling bias. Let’s look for selling trades below 107.250 today. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

EUR/JPY Violates Triple Bottom – Brace For A Sell Trade!

Entry Price – Sell 121.06

Entry Price – Sell 121.06

Entry Price – Sell 121.06

Stop Loss – 121.46

Take Profit – 120.66

Risk to Reward – 1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$375/ +$375

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$37.5/ +$37.5

Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.

iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368

Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

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Forex Signals

Gold Trades in Choppy Ranges – Brace for a Breakout! 

The safe-haven-metal prices stuck in a trading range of $1,804 to $1,811 after hitting the multi-year high to $1,818.17 in the previous day. At this point, the gold buyers were satisfied, possibly due to the lack of major directives. The yellow-metal have managed a rally from $1,756 to $1,818, a nine-year high, in the last three trading days. 

The safe-haven-metal prices stuck in a trading range of $1,804 to $1,811 after hitting the multi-year high to $1,818.17 in the previous day. At this point, the gold buyers were satisfied, possibly due to the lack of major directives. The yellow-metal have managed a rally from $1,756 to $1,818, a nine-year high, in the last three trading days. 

The safe-haven-metal prices stuck in a trading range of $1,804 to $1,811 after hitting the multi-year high to $1,818.17 in the previous day. At this point, the gold buyers were satisfied, possibly due to the lack of major directives. The yellow-metal have managed a rally from $1,756 to $1,818, a nine-year high, in the last three trading days. 

However, the bullion gains could be attributed to the noise surrounding the record surge in the U.S. coronavirus (COVID-19) cases and the Sino-American tension that initially favored the risk-off market tone. As well as, the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness triggered by the declines in the U.S. bond yield, also impressed gold bulls. 

The yellow metal prices are currently trading at 1,811.00 and consolidating in the range between 1,806.12 and 1,812.09. However, traders were cautious about placing any strong position due to light trading ahead. The downbeat market sentiment could be associated with the fresh report of coronavirus, which fueled the possibility of renewed lockdown and dampened prospects for a sharp V-shaped global economic recovery. 

As per the latest report, the U.S. cases crossed a total of 3.0 million marks with a rise of over 60,000. Moreover, the latest update from the Texas Health Department suggested new cases increase by 9,979 to 220,564 on Wednesday, the biggest daily increase since pandemic started. On the other hand, the coronavirus cases in Tokyo dropped to 75, the first below-100 figure in the last 7-days. Apart from this, Victoria also marked a lower figure of 134 against 191 on the previous day. Moreover, China offered positive vibes about virus cases while keeping its zero virus case level, which helped the equity market limit its losses.

Elsewhere, the risk-off market sentiment was further bolstered by the release of the China data, which showed continued deflation in factory-gate prices. At the data front, China’s producer price index (PPI), which measures costs for goods at the factory gate, was dropped by 3.7% year-on-year in June, against a rise to -3.2% from May’s figures of -3.7%. Meanwhile, China’s consumer price index (CPI), a main gauge of inflation, also decreased by 0.1% month-on-month in June, missing the expected rise to 0% from -0.8%. However, this data report also weighed over the global equity markets, triggered a flight to safety.

However, the tussle between China and the U.S., the U.K., and India remained on the card. The U.S. diplomats continued to attack China with harder policies. Whereas, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo recently announced visa restrictions on some Chinese diplomats over Tibet issue, which also favored the risk-off mood. In the meantime, the Trump administration official also attended talks with others to undermine the Hong Kong dollar peg to punish China.

Despite the ever-increasing number of new coronavirus cases and the possibility of renewed lockdowns, the broad-based U.S. dollar failed to gain any positive traction and edged lower on the day. Although, the losses in the U.S. kept the gold prices higher as the price of gold is inversely related to the price of the U.S. dollar. Whereas, the U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies slipped 0.16% to 96.213 by 12:21 AM ET (5:21 AM GMT).


On the positive side, the investors were confident about the vaccine race as US Fauci said Phase 3 vaccine trials might begin at the end of July. It should be noted that the researchers around the world are developing more than 145 vaccines against coronavirus. Whereas, there are currently 21 vaccines are in human trials as per the New York Times vaccine tracker. 

The yellow metal gold has disrupted the 1786 resistance, and now it’s trading below 1,818 level, which is likely to extend solid resistance to gold today. Gold can trade sideways in between 1800 to 1,819 level today. Bullish bias seems dominant in gold. Good luck! 

Entry Price – Sell 1804.75

Stop Loss – 1812.25

Take Profit – 1797.25

Risk to Reward – 1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$750/ +$750

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$75/ +$75

Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.

iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368

Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, July 09 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Trade Plans to Follow! 

On the news front, traders will keep their focus on the German trade balance, and U.S. Jobless Claims data in order to predict further price action in the market. Both events are expected to perform better than before and may help positive moves in the U.S. dollar.

On the news front, traders will keep their focus on the German trade balance, and U.S. Jobless Claims data in order to predict further price action in the market. Both events are expected to perform better than before and may help positive moves in the U.S. dollar.

On the news front, traders will keep their focus on the German trade balance, and U.S. Jobless Claims data in order to predict further price action in the market. Both events are expected to perform better than before and may help positive moves in the U.S. dollar.

Economic Events to Watch Today 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

A day before, the EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.13294 after placing a high of 1.13516 and a low of 1.12621. Overall the movement of the EUR/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. The EUR/USD pair rose on Wednesday due to the U.S. economy’s gloomy look after a rising number of infection cases from the U.S. Despite growing fears over a possible second wave of coronavirus in the U.S., the market’s risk sentiment improved. Investors have weighed hopes in favor of a swift economic recovery despite signs of a pandemic resurgence.

The Greenback has been increasingly compromised by the growing doubts over its safe-haven status, as the Chinese economy was improving quickly while the U.S. was still facing the prospect of the second wave. The EUR/USD pair edged higher on Wednesday against the U.S. dollar despite concerns that Eurozone’s economy could be headed for an additional recession than previously forecasted.

According to E.U. Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovski, the European economy was facing many risks, including the second wave of coronavirus. The report of the E.U. Commission indicated that the rising number of infection cases in the U.S. and other markets had deteriorated the global outlook, and it could drag the European economy with itself.

However, in the absence of Eurozone economic data on Wednesday and the presence of safe-haven demand, the investors lost confidence in the U.S. dollar because of America’s struggling economy. And with the Euro being a direct competitor of the U.S. dollar, investors turned towards it and benefited single currency Euro, which ultimately pushed the EUR/USD pair.

On Wednesday, Spain and Italy’s leaders called for a strong response from the European Union to the economic crisis triggered by COVID-19. Ten days ahead of the E.U. Summit, where leaders of member countries will try to reach a deal on 750 B euros COVID-19 recovery package and the long-term E.U. budget, Italian PM met its Spain counterpart on Wednesday. 

On the other hand, German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Wednesday urged E.U. countries to show unity and overcome differences to approve a massive coronavirus recovery plan in E.U. Summit. However, the gains were limited due to recent forecasts of and 8.7% contraction in the Eurozone economy this year. This weighed on the single currency and limited the daily gains in EUR/USD pair.

On Thursday, Euro traders will look forward to the release of German Trade data. Any improvement in the Eurozone powerhouse economy export will push the pair EUR/USD higher further. Meanwhile, the U.S. employment data will be under close observation by the traders to take fresh impetus. The EUR/USD pair will be driven by Eurozone economic data for the rest of the week. Any signs of economic recovery in the Eurozone area will provide support to the persisting gains.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.1459
  • R2 1.1406
  • R1 1.1368

Pivot Point 1.1315

  • S1 1.1278
  • S2 1.1224
  • S3 1.1187

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD pair has violated the triple top resistance level of 1.1340 level, and above this, the pair has the potential to go after the 1.1405 resistance area. A bullish breakout of 1.1405 level can extend buying until 1.1489. Stay tuned to our forex signals; we will share more signals as soon as the market shows some movement. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.26092 after placing a high of 1.26229 and a low of 1.25085. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. The GBP/USD exchange rate rose for the 4th consecutive day on Wednesday and reached 1.26229 level on the back of decreased demand for the U.S. dollar and a new stimulus package from the U.K. government.

The UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak said on Wednesday that U.K. would cut VAT on hospitality as part of a 3 Billion British Pound plan to prevent mass unemployment that was caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

He also announced that the U.K. government would pay firms a 1000 pounds bonus for every staff member they kept for three months when the furlough scheme will end in October. He also announced a scheme which will give 50% off to the people dining out in August. He added that he would cut VAT on food, accommodation, and attractions from 20% to 5% from next Wednesday. Mr. Sunak warned that hardships were ahead but also vowed that no-one would be left without hope.

The Chancellor refused to extend the furlough scheme beyond October as it would provide false hope to people that they will return to their jobs. Longer, the people remain on furlough; the more likely their sill could fade.

Mr. Sunak said that the U.K. would cut stamp duty on house purchases of up to 500,000 British pounds. The government will also invest an extra 1B pound in the work & pension department to support unemployed people.

After the 30 B pound stimulus package announcement, the GBP currency got some support and lifted GBP/USD pair a little.

On Brexit front, the U.K. government was seeking to agree “special provisions” with the European Union over food supply to Northern Ireland from the U.K. This provided some optimism over the Brexit and compromised deal. However, prospects of no-deal were also there in the market as the U.K. has said that it would go for Australian-style agreement if the end of the transition period secured no deal.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar was under pressure as its safe-haven status was compromised due to the pandemic’s struggling American economy. The U.S. Dollar Index was slipped 0.5% at 96.40 on Wednesday and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The weak U.S. dollar in the wake of an increased number of coronavirus cases from the U.S. gave a push to the already increasing GBP/USD pair on Wednesday.

 Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.277
  • R2 1.2697
  • R1 1.2654

Pivot Point 1.2581

  • S1 1.2538
  • S2 1.2465
  • S3 1.2421

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading with a bullish bias, especially after violating the resistance level of 1.2570 level. For now, this level is working as support, and the Cable can show further bullish bias above 1.2570 level to lead the GBP/USD pair towards 1.2680 level. The MACD and RSI are holding in a buying zone and the 50 EMA, which also supports the pair’s buying trend. The recent candles are also bullish, as it seems like the traders are looking to enter fresh long entries over 1.2630 level. Let’s consider taking buying trades today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 107.257 after placing a high of 107.709 and 107.200. Overall the movement of the USD/JPY pair remained bearish throughout the day. On Wednesday, at the Department of Education, U.S. Vice President Mike Pence claimed progress against COVID-19 even the infections topped 3 Million in numbers. In reply to the hiked number of cases from Florida, Arizona, and Texas, Mike Pence said that these were the early indications of a percent positive testing.

Pence joined President Trump in his push for reopening schools as it was needed not just for educating kids but also for the workforce and providing essential services. He also announced plans for new CDC guidelines after President Trump criticized public health agency for its impractical instructions to reopen schools. Donald Trump warned schools on Wednesday that if they do not open in fall 2020 due to coronavirus pandemic, he may cut off government funding.

Pence said that the national death rate from coronavirus was lowered compared to before and said that early indications for positive testing from three major states were flattening. Pence and Trump’s statement pushed he equities back into upward trend and decreased the demand for safe-haven U.S. dollar, downed the U.S. Dollar Index to 96.47 level, and added in the downward trend of USD/JPY.

The U.S. dollar was already under pressure due to the rising number of coronavirus cases, which affected the U.S. economic outlook as it was struggling heavily to fight the pandemic. This compromised the safe-haven U.S. dollar status, and hence U.S. dollar lost its demand in the market, which dragged the USD/JPY pair with itself.

However, the safe-haven Japanese Yen was stronger against the U.S. dollar on the back of increased demand for safe-haven during uncertainty related to coronavirus and positive macroeconomic data from Japan on Wednesday, which helped to add losses in USD/JPY pair. On the data front, at 4:50 GMT, the Bank Lending for the year from Japan surged to 6.2%from the forecasted5.0% and supported the Japanese Yen, which ultimately pushed the already rising USD/JPY pair prices further.

The Current Account Balance from Japan showed a surplus of 0.82T against the forecasted 0.71T and supported the Japanese Yen. At 10:00 GMT, the Economy Watchers Sentiment for June from Japan also increased to 38.8 from the forecasted 24.7 and supported Japanese Yen that added in the bearish trend of USD/JPY pair.

Support and Resistance    

  • R3 108.1
  • R2 107.91
  • R1 107.59

Pivot Point 107.39

  • S1 107.07
  • S2 106.87
  • S3 106.55

 

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is consolidating in a wide trading range of 107.800 to 107.250. At the moment, the pair is trading with a selling bias of below 107.80 resistance. On the hourly charts, the USD/JPY is dropping below 50 periods EMA, which supports the Japanese pair’s selling bias. It seems like we have a margin to capture quick 25 pips in USD/JPY as the pair moves within a sideways range and has odds of the testing support level of 107.250. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

EUR/USD Breaks Triangle Pattern – Bullish Trade Setup

The EUR/USD currency pair extended its early-day gains and rose further to 1.1290 level ahead of the much-awaited negotiations on the European Union’s (EU) long-term budget. However, the modest gains in the currency pair were supported by the hopes of a recovery package from the European Council president Charles Michel.

The EUR/USD currency pair extended its early-day gains and rose further to 1.1290 level ahead of the much-awaited negotiations on the European Union’s (EU) long-term budget. However, the modest gains in the currency pair were supported by the hopes of a recovery package from the European Council president Charles Michel.

The EUR/USD currency pair extended its early-day gains and rose further to 1.1290 level ahead of the much-awaited negotiations on the European Union’s (EU) long-term budget. However, the modest gains in the currency pair were supported by the hopes of a recovery package from the European Council president Charles Michel.

On the other hand, the downbeat German Industrial data, as well as the gloomy European Commission’s economic forecasts, become the key factors that kept a lid on any additional gains in the currency pair. Whereas, the broad-based US dollar strength backed by the risk-on market sentiment also exerted some downside pressure on the currency pair. Moreover, the rising number of coronavirus cases weighed on the European equities which undermined the shared currency.

The nervous mood in the European stock futures could be associated with the dovish comments made by the European Commission that “the EU economy will experience a deep recession this year due to the coronavirus pandemic, despite the swift and comprehensive policy response at both EU and national levels.” However, these discouraging EU economic forecasts continue to weigh on the EUR/USD pair.


The EUR/USD is trading above a strong support level of 1.1265 level, and closing the Doji and bullish engulfing candle above this level may drive the buying trend in the EUR/USD pair. On the higher side, the next resistance is likely to be found around the 1.1303 level. But in case, the pair violates 1.1265 support, the next support is likely to stay around 1.1225 level.

Entry Price – Buy 1.12889

Stop Loss – 1.12489

Take Profit – 1.13289

Risk to Reward – 1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.

iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368

Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, July 08 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Trade Plans to Follow! 

On the news side, we don’t have much to focus on due to a lack of economic events. However, the trading levels and technical outlook will be worth watching today. Crude oil inventories can drive price action in crude oil prices.

On the news side, we don’t have much to focus on due to a lack of economic events. However, the trading levels and technical outlook will be worth watching today. Crude oil inventories can drive price action in crude oil prices.

On the news side, we don’t have much to focus on due to a lack of economic events. However, the trading levels and technical outlook will be worth watching today. Crude oil inventories can drive price action in crude oil prices.

Economic Events to Watch Today 

 

  

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.12741 after placing a high of1.13323 and a low of 1.12585. Overall the movement of the EUR/USD pair remained bearish throughout the day. The EUR/USD pair started to fall on Tuesday on the back of many factors, including negative macroeconomic data from Europe, downbeat comments from E.U. Commission, Chinese stock surge, and an increasing number of coronavirus cases across the world.

On the data front, at 11:00 GMT, the German Industrial Production for May dropped to 7.8% from the expected 11.0% and weighed on Euro. At 11:45 GMT, the French Trade Balance for May showed a deficit of 7.1B against the expected 4.5B deficit and weighed on single currency Euro and dragged the pair EUR/USD on the downside. At 13:02 GMT, the Italian Retail Sales for May surged by 24.3% from the expected 15.0% and supported single currency Euro.

On the U.S. side, at 18:59 GMT, the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism for July dropped to 44.0 from the forecasted 48.2 and weighed on the U.S. dollar. At 19:00 GMT, the JOLTS Job Openings in May were reported as 5.40M against the expected 4.70M and supported the U.S. dollar and added further in the downward trend of EUR/USD pair.

The European Commission said on Tuesday that the E.U. would likely suffer a deeper contraction in 2020 than previously expected, while 2021 recovery will also be weaker than forecast. The E.U. Commission expected EU GDP to contract by 8.3% in 2020, and in 2021 an expansion by 5.8% was expected. However, previously the contraction was forecasted to be 7.75 in 2020, and the growth in 2021 was predicted as 6% by the commission. 

The change in the forecast was made due to the government’s slow efforts to lift lockdown measures than expected. An executive vice president of the Commission, Valdis Dombrovskis said that the lockdown’s economic impact was more severe than it was initially expected. He said that many risks were still present in the economy, including another major wave of infection. Italy, Spain, and France’s economies were expected to get the worst-hit by the pandemic this year as the GDP contraction for these were expected as 11.2%, 10.9%, and 10.6%, respectively. However, Germany’s economy was expected to contract by 6.3% this year as per the E.U. Commission’s latest forecast.

According to the commission, the worst may have passed as of May, and June’s economic data came in mostly positive. The recovery will likely gain traction in the second half of this year, while inflation was expected to average 0.3% this year and 1.1% in 2021, said by E.U. Commission on Tuesday. The downbeat forecast and comments from E.U. Commission on Tuesday weighed heavily on single currency Euro and caused the pair EUR/USD to lose almost all of its gains from yesterday.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.1463
  • R2 1.1405
  • R1 1.1356

Pivot Point 1.1298

  • S1 1.125
  • S2 1.1191
  • S3 1.1143

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is trading above a strong support level of 1.1265 level, and closing the Doji and bullish engulfing candle above this level may drive the buying trend in the EUR/USD pair. On the higher side, the next resistance is likely to be found around the 1.1303 level. But in case, the pair violates 1.1265 support, the next support is likely to stay around 1.1225 level.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.25432 after placing a high of 1.25920 and a low of 1.24624. The GBP/USD pair rose for 3rd consecutive day on Tuesday and reached near 1.2600 level, highest since June 16, 2020, on the back of fresh hopes that the E.U. might compromise on fisheries policy to reach the Brexit trade deal.

British Pound rose to 3 weeks highest level on the back of news that chief Brexit negotiator of U.K. would meet the Michel Barnier ahead of the next round of talks. To discuss some of the trickier parts of negotiations, David Frost will have dinner on Tuesday night with Barnier.

The dinner between both Brexit negotiators will be seen as an opportunity for both sides to clear issues in an informal setting. As they will be informal talks, the agenda will include the range of the problems that need to reach an agreement from the level playing field, fishing waters, to governance structures.

Some other reports came in the market related to fresh hopes for the Brexit deal as the E.U. showed a willingness to compromise on fisheries policy. Michel Barnier said that Brussels would support a U.K. proposal to divide fishing quotas according to data that reflects the number of fish in Britain waters.

After the failure of last week’s round of Brexit talks, this news raised new hopes that a deal could be reached before transition periods end. This gave strength to British Pound, which ultimately pushed GBP/USD pair higher on Tuesday.

Fisheries have long been a point of argument for both sides as Britain has been asking for a system based on yearly quotas, while Brussels has said that any deal had to be part of a larger comprehensive trade agreement.

On the data front, at 12:30 GMT, the Halifax HPI for June from the U.K. came in as -0.1% against the forecasted -0.8% and supported British Pound. It ultimately raised the GBP/USD pair on Tuesday.

On the U.S. side, at 18:59 GMT, the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism declined to 44.0 from the forecasted 48.2 in June and weighed on the U.S. dollar and supported the GBP/USD pair’s bullish trend.

At 19:00 GMT, the JOLTS Job Openings increased to 5.40M against the expected 4.70M in May and supported the U.S. dollar, which kept the gains in GBP/USD pair limited.

 Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.2584
  • R2 1.2553
  • R1 1.2523

Pivot Point 1.2491

  • S1 1.2461
  • S2 1.2429
  • S3 1.24

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading with a bullish bias, especially after violating the double top resistance level of 1.2530 level. The same level is working as support, and the Cable can show bullish bias above this level today to lead the pair towards 1.2580 level. The MACD and RSI are holding in a buying zone and the 50 EMA, which also supports the buying trend in the pair. The recent candles are neutral, as it seems like the traders are looking to stay bullish over 1.2530 level. Let’s consider taking buying trades today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 107.524 after placing a high of 107.789 and 107.244. Overall the movement of the USD/JPY pair remained bullish throughout the day. The dollar edged higher against Japanese Yen on Tuesday amid negative macroeconomic data from Japan and a combination of some other factors supporting the U.S. dollar.

The rising number of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. kept the market sentiment on the upside as Florida reported 7,347 new cases, and Arizona reported 3,653 new cases on Tuesday. The second wave of coronavirus was causing a surge in the hopes for renewed lockdown restrictions in the U.S. as well. However, Australia, Spain, and Serbia imposed renewed lockdown in their areas where the spread of COVID-19 was needed to control.

The second round of lockdown restrictions from countries across the globe raised hopes that further stimulus measures will be needed from central banks to support the economy. This gave a push to U.S. Dollar prices on Tuesday, and the pair USD/JPY started posting gains.

On the data front, at 4:30 GMT, the Average Cash Earnings from Japan for the year decreased to -2.1%from the expected -0.9% and weighed on Japanese Yen. The Household Spending from Japan also decreased to -16.2% from the forecasted -11.8% and weighed on Japanese Yen and added further strength in the rising USD/JPY prices. At 10:00 GMT, the Leading Indicators from Japan remained flat with the expectations of 79.3%.

On the U.S. side, at 18:59 GMT, the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism for July declined to 44.0 from the anticipated 48.2 and weighed on the U.S. dollar. At 19:00 GMT, the JOLTS Job Openings in May were recorded as 5.40M against the forecasted 4.70M and supported the U.S. dollar and ultimately raised USD/JPY pair further.

Meanwhile, on Tuesday, China’s foreign ministry announced that China had joined a global arms trade treaty at the U.N. that was rejected by the United States. The foreign ministry spokesman, Zhao Lijian, said that all the legal procedures to join the treaty were completed, and it will be effective after 90 days.

As per the treaty, it requires the member countries to keep records of international transfer of weapons and to prohibit cross-border shipments that could be used in human rights violations or attacks on civilians. Beijing committed to the treaty efforts on Tuesday to improve peace and stability in the world. Apart from this, reports suggested on Tuesday that scientists were calling for the WHO to acknowledge that coronavirus could spread in the air. This would change the current measures being taken to stop the virus spread.

Support and Resistance    

  • R3 108.21
  • R2 108
  • R1 107.69

Pivot Point 107.47

  • S1 107.16
  • S2 106.94
  • S3 106.63

 

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is consolidating in a wide trading range of 107.800 to 107.250. At the moment, the pair is trading with a selling bias of below 107.80 resistance. On the hourly charts, the USD/JPY is dropping below 50 periods EMA, which supports the selling bias in the Japanese pair. It seems like we have a margin to capture quick 25 pips in USD/JPY as the pair moves within a sideways range and has odds of the testing support level of 107.250. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

EUR/JPY Trades In Bearish Channel – Quick Trade Setup!

Entry Price – Buy 121.16

Entry Price – Buy 121.16

The EUR/JPY was trading with a bearish bias, holding within a downward channel which extended resistance at 121.500 level. Closing of candles below 121.500 level suggested selling bias, but recently the sentiments seem to have changed.

Previously, the pair took a bearish turn in the wake of the negative Eurozone macroeconomic data, which was involved in the EUR/JPY pair’s downfall. Besides, the rising concern of coronavirus cases from the US and all over the world were increasing safe-haven appeal, driving selling trend in the EUR/JPY pair.

The Chinese stock market surge spread to global equities and made the US dollar strong across the market. Shanghai stocks jumped 5.7% in a day after the state-owned China Securities Journal published that investors should look forward to a healthy bull market prospects. Strong JPY dragged the EUR/JPY pair further to the downside after global equities fell.


Things were going in our favor until the pair violate the downward channel at 121.500 level, and that’s when we decided to close our below trade in a loss in order to avoid additional loss. Fortunately, we made more profit in our EUR/USD trade. Let’s wait for the next opportunity now.

Entry Price – Buy 121.16

Stop Loss – 121.56

Take Profit – 120.76

Risk to Reward – 1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$375/ +$375

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$37.5/ +$37.5

Traders, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.

iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368

Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

Categories
Forex Signals

GBP/JPY Breakout Symmetric Triangle Pattern – Quick Update on Signal!

Entry Price – Buy 134.389

Entry Price – Buy 134.389

The GBP/JPY currency pair has performed well as it violated the symmetric triangle pattern at 134.470 level, and since this, the bullish run seems unstoppable. It seems the Japanese yen is losing safe-haven appeal despite COVID19 hit. Due to an increased second wave of coronavirus, officials in Spain re-imposed restrictions in the north-western region of Spain with 70,000 people and allowed only workers to leave or enter the coastal district of A Marian.

On the other hand, An Oxford Professor, Dr. Tom Jefferson from the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine (CEBM) said that rather than originating in China, the coronavirus might have been lying dormant until favorable environmental conditions emerged.

A preprint study claimed that they found the SARS-CoV-2 genomes in a Barcelona sewage sample from 12th March 2019. Traces of COVID-19 were also found in sewage samples from Spain, Italy, and Brazil, which pre-date its finding in China.

However, this news was based on unchecked facts but still weighed on risk sentiment and called for safe-haven demand as the fears increased that COVID-19 was present across the world and could emerge again. The safe-haven Japanese Yen gained and added the GBP/JPY pair’s downward pressure on Tuesday.


The RSI and MACD are still in a bullish zone, while the 50 EMA also suggests a bullish bias. Therefore, we should look for buying trades over 134.389 levels. It seems like a good opportunity to capture quick 40 pips as the symmetric triangle pattern is already violated and may drive buying until 134.789

Entry Price – Buy 134.389

Stop Loss – 133.989

Take Profit – 134.789

Risk to Reward – 1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$600/ +$600

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$60/ +$60

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, July 07 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Sideways Trading In Play! 

On the news front, the Eurozone and Switzerland may release a series of low impact events, but they are expected to have a muted impact in the market. The market will be looking towards the new signals about the recovery fund from the meeting of euro-area finance ministers on the coming Thursday before E.U. Summit on 17-18 July.

On the news front, the Eurozone and Switzerland may release a series of low impact events, but they are expected to have a muted impact in the market. The market will be looking towards the new signals about the recovery fund from the meeting of euro-area finance ministers on the coming Thursday before E.U. Summit on 17-18 July.

On the news front, the Eurozone and Switzerland may release a series of low impact events, but they are expected to have a muted impact in the market. The market will be looking towards the new signals about the recovery fund from the meeting of euro-area finance ministers on the coming Thursday before E.U. Summit on 17-18 July.

Economic Events to Watch Today 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.13084 after placing a high of 1.13454 and a low of 1.12407. Overall the movement of the EUR/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. The EUR/USD pair extended its previous day gains and rose for the second consecutive day towards the nine-day highest level near 1.13460 level on the back of improved risk-sentiment and weak U.S. dollar.

At 11:00 GMT, the German Factory Orders for May decreased to 10.4% from the expected 15.1% and weighed on single currency Euro. At 13:30 GMT, the Sentix Investor Confidence for July was declined to -18.2 from the expected -10.8 and weighed on Euro. At 14:00 GMT, the Retail Sales in May from the European Union was reported to increase by 17.8% against the forecasted 15.0% and supported Euro.

Investors followed the release of Retail Sales from the E.U. and gave a push to Euro, which ultimately raised EUR/USD prices on Monday. However, the negative data from German factory orders and Sentix investor confidence capped the additional gains in EUR/USD pair.

On the U.S. dollar front, the Final Services PMI rose to 47.9 from the expected 47.0. The ISM Non-manufacturing PMI was also raised to 57.1 from the forecasted 50.0 and supported the U.S. dollar, which also limited the EUR/USD pair’s bullish move on Monday.

U.S. & Global equities surged on Monday on the back of improved U.S. Services sector data. The data showed that the U.S. services sector was regaining its pre-pandemic position. The rising global equities, including S&P 500 futures that raised almost 1.5% on Monday, pushed the risk-on market sentiment and raised EUR/USD pair. Despite positive data from the U.S., the U.S. dollar was weak across the board due to risk-on market sentiment. The U.S. Dollar Index was down by almost 0.5% at 96.852 level.

The market will be looking towards the new signals about the recovery fund from the meeting of euro-area finance ministers on the coming Thursday before E.U. Summit on 17-18 July. As Germany has the six-month rotating presidency of the European Union, It will arrange the consensus about the structure of the COVID-19 recovery fund.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.1463
  • R2 1.1405
  • R1 1.1356

Pivot Point 1.1298

  • S1 1.125
  • S2 1.1191
  • S3 1.1143

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is stuck below the triple top resistance level of 1.1342, which can be seen on the 4-hour timeframe. On the lower side, the support stays at 1.1303 level today. A bullish breakout of 1.1342 level can trigger the continuation of a bullish trend until 1.1395, while bearish breakout of 1.1306 can open further room for selling until 1.1223 level today.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.24918 after placing a high of 1.25202 and a low of 1.24560. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. The GBP/USD was moving on the upside track on Tuesday but faced too much resistance. The investors were cautious about placing any strong position in the market due to Brexit negotiations that have resumed in London.

This time, the negotiations were face-to-face, and traders were hopeful that a Brexit deal could be secured, which raised the bars for British Pound in the market. However, the stakes were also high after the last round of talks ended a day earlier last week in Brussels because of profound differences between both parties.

E.U. chief negotiator Michel Barnier said that serious divergences remain, but it would be too early to say that chances of trade agreement had fallen. Even if a deal were secured, the risks of the economic impact would be significant, which will be priced into the pound.

On the other hand, U.K. chief negotiator David Frost said that while the talks continue to be constructive, there were still significant differences between the U.K. & E.U. It was a chance to have some further discussion to see what progress might be made. Britain wanted to see if there was a chance for progress in talks with the European Union this week after last week’s round of Brexit negotiations ended a day earlier due to significant differences between both sides.

However, some speculations that the U.K. could sign up to the E.U.’s compromise requests initially, with a warning, would move away from them in the future in the knowledge that the E.U. would respond with tariffs.

On the data front, at 13:30 GMT, the Construction PMI from Great Britain came in as 55.3 in June against the expected 46.0 and supported British Pound. At 13:34 GMT, the Housing Equity Withdrawal for the first quarter came in as -5.1B in comparison of the previous -5.0B and gave almost null-effect to GBP.

On late Tuesday, the British finance minister Rishi Sunak announced that he would spend 3 billion pounds to create green jobs and increase the energy performance of public buildings to kickstart the economy. This announcement helped British Pound to gain traction in the late Tuesday session and raised GBP/USD.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar was under pressure in the risk-on market sentiment as the reports came in about failure to contain coronavirus from many countries like India, Mexico, and specifically the United States. Weak U.S. dollar added in the upward movement of GBP/USD pair on Tuesday.

 Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.2584
  • R2 1.2553
  • R1 1.2523

Pivot Point 1.2491

  • S1 1.2461
  • S2 1.2429
  • S3 1.24

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading at 1.249 level, and it’s finding immediate support at 1.2478 level. Closing of candles above 1.2478 level can open further room for buying until double top resistance level of 1.2530 level. While, the bullish breakout of 1.2530 level, can drive further buying in Cable until 1.2620 level. The RSI and MACD show bullish bias as the MACD and RSI are holding in a buying zone. Let’s consider taking a buy trades above 1.2441 level today.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY was closed at 107.391 after placing a high of 107.770 and a low of 107.255. Overall the movement of the USD/JPY pair remained bearish throughout the day. The USD/JPY pair rose in the first half of the day but failed to stay at upside track and reversed its direction in the second half on the back of weak U.S. dollar in improved risk sentiment after the release of better than expected U.S. Services Sector data.

At 18:45 GMT, the Final Services PMI from the United States was released for June, which surged to 47.9 from the expected 47.0 and supported the U.S. dollar. At 19:00 GMT, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI came in as 57.1 against the expected 50.0 and supported the U.S. dollar, which limited the additional losses in USD/JPY pair.

The Non-Manufacturing PMI released from the ISM showed that the United States’ services sector was improved in June. It raised the U.S. equity market across the globe and added in the risk sentiment of the market weighing on the U.S. dollar, which dragged the USD/JPY pair on Tuesday towards the downside. The U.S. Dollar Index that measures the value of the U.S. dollar against the basket of six currencies dropped more than 0.5%, while U.S. 2-year Treasury yield was stuck at 0.16% and 10-year treasury yield fell from 0.71% to near 0.68%.

The positive data from the market was cheered by the investors as it indicated signs of economic recovery on the back of measures taken by the central banks from across the globe. The fact that global governments were restrained from imposing lockdown measures for the second time and preferred to contain the outbreak at the regional and local levels has helped recover the economy.

On the trade front, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and 40 other trade associations advised the top U.S. and Chinese officials to redouble efforts to complete phase one trade deal despite the coronavirus crisis. On Monday, in a letter to U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, the group said that the development in trade deal vows fortified them. Still, they called for a substantial increase in China’s purchases of U.S. goods & services.

On Coronavirus front, in the first four days of July, the 15 states of the U.S. reported a record rise in the new cases of COVID-19. Meanwhile, India, Australia, and Mexico also reported record increased number of infection cases on Monday. India beat Russia and became the country with the third-highest number of cases in the world after 25,000 new infections were recorded in a day.

Support and Resistance    

  • R3 108.21
  • R2 108
  • R1 107.69

Pivot Point 107.47

  • S1 107.16
  • S2 106.94
  • S3 106.63

 

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading with a bearish bias of around 107.560. On the two-hourly charts, the USD/JPY is gaining bullish support from the regression channel. Channel is expected to support the USD/JPY pair around 107.420 while crossing below this level can open up further room for selling until 107 and 106.850 level. The 50 EMA will also be supporting the Japanese pair at 107.300 level. However, the MACD and RSI are suggesting selling bias. Let’s keep an eye on 107.400 level to buy above and sell below this level. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

Gold Violates Intraday Resistance – Who’s Up for Bullish Signal?

Entry Price – Buy 1780.33

Entry Price – Buy 1780.33

The safe-haven metal prices failed to gain any positive traction and hit the intraday low of $1,770 level while represented 0.20% declines. The downward movement of gold was mainly due to the risk-on market sentiment in the wake of upbeat vital data from the U.S. and China, which undermined the safe-haven demand in the market. On the other hand, the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness helped limit any additional losses for the yellow metal. Whereas, the Pandemic fears and geopolitical tensions exerted some downside pressure on the risk sentiment and capped further losses in gold. At the moment, the yellow metal prices are currently trading at 1,772.67 and consolidating in the range between 1,770.18 and 1,776.91.

At the coronavirus front, almost 15 states of the U.S. have reported a record hike in new cases of COVID-19, which has infected approximately 3 million people in the U.S. and killed about 130,000 so far. It is worth mentioning that Texas registered the record high coronavirus figures for seven consecutive days. Moreover, no progress came out of the virus vaccine.

Despite this, U.S. President Donald Trump did not give any major attention to the latest surge in the coronavirus (COVID-19) numbers, which also contributed to the risk sentiment. On the negative side, the geopolitical tension between the United States and China remained on the card, as well as, China’s tussle with India, and some of the developed economies also weighed on the risk sentiment and gave some support to the yellow-metal traders.

Apart from this, the U.S. President Donald Trump was still considering two or three actions against China, with a high probability, in the wake of passing the Hong Kong security law. As per the White House administration official, “Something could be revealed soon, more likely in days than weeks”. In the meantime, the United States recently sent two aircraft carriers to the South China Sea for exercise as China holds drills, which recently challenged the current risk-on sentiment.

The broad-based U.S. dollar failed to extend its previous gains and edged lower on the day, mainly due to the lack of safe-haven demand in the market backed by the upbeat vital data from the U.S. and China. Whereas, the investors cautiously withdrew their money from the safe-haven asset due to the optimism over U.S. services sector activity data due to be released later in the day. However, the losses in the U.S. dollar became the key factors that kept a barrier on any additional losses in the gold prices as the price of gold is inversely related to the U.S. dollar price.

Entry Price – Buy 1780.33

Stop Loss – 1774.33

Take Profit – 1786.33

Risk to Reward – 1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$600/ +$600

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$60/ +$60

Categories
Forex Signals

EUR/JPY on a Bullish Run – Bullish Engulfing Plays!

Entry Price – Buy 121.763

Entry Price – Buy 121.763

The EUR/JPY pair is trading with a bullish bias at 121.65 after violating the triangle pattern at 121.500 level. Above this, the pair are looking to go further higher until 122 level today. On the EUR side, the European Central Bank’s Governing Council Member and Bank of France Head Francois Villeroy de Galhau spoke dovish on weakened while saying that the coronavirus outbreak has permanently changed European economic policy and the non-conventional tools adopted by the central bank have now become quasi-conventional.

However, the upbeat stocks have overshadowed Galhau’s dovish comments and helped the shared currency stay bid so far. It should be noted that the second wave of the coronavirus outbreak is picking a further pace and could stop the still-nascent global economic recovery as per the ECB.

At the coronavirus front, almost 15 states of the U.S. have reported a record hike in new cases of COVID-19, which has infected approximately 3 million people in the U.S. and killed about 130,000 so far. It is worth mentioning that Texas registered the record high coronavirus figures for seven consecutive days. Moreover, no progress came out of the virus vaccine, which becomes the key factor that capped further gains in the currency pair.

Whereas, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported a record single-day rise of 200,000 in global coronavirus cases whereas Spain imposed lockdown in the north-western region of Galicia, which also exerted some downside pressure on the currency pair.

Technically, the EUR/JPY carries a bullish bias over the 121.500 level. The RSI and MACD are suggesting odds of bullish trend continuation in the EUR/JPY pair, and these can lead the pair towards 122 level. For now, the pair has closed a Doji pattern, suggesting the odds of slight bearish correction in the EUR/JPY pair, but very soon, the bullish trend may trigger again. Let’s stick to the below trade plan.

Entry Price – Buy 121.763

Stop Loss – 121.363

Take Profit – 122.163

Risk to Reward – 1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, July 06 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

On the fundamental side, the market isn’t bustling as we only got ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI from the U.S. and BOC Business Outlook Survey from the Canadian economy. The ISM non-manufacturing may drive some price action during the U.S. session today. Overall, the technical side will play most of the role.

On the fundamental side, the market isn’t bustling as we only got ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI from the U.S. and BOC Business Outlook Survey from the Canadian economy. The ISM non-manufacturing may drive some price action during the U.S. session today. Overall, the technical side will play most of the role.

On the fundamental side, the market isn’t bustling as we only got ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI from the U.S. and BOC Business Outlook Survey from the Canadian economy. The ISM non-manufacturing may drive some price action during the U.S. session today. Overall, the technical side will play most of the role.

Economic Events to Watch Today 

  

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD closed at 1.12404 after placing a highof1.12510 and a low of 1.12191. he EUR/USD pair showed a little positive movement on Friday as the U.S. market was closed due to Holiday, and in the absence of American traders, EUR/USD pair followed economic data from Eurozone and COVID-19 news.

On Friday, the economic data from the Eurozone came in positive and above expectations and raised Euro above the U.S. dollar, which pushed EUR/USD pair on the upward track. On the data front, at 11:45 GMT, the French Government Budget Balance for May showed a deficit of 117.9B compared to April’s deficit of 92.1B. At 12:15 GMT, the Spanish Services PMI for June rose to 50.2 from the expected 46.0 and supported Euro. At 12:45 GMT, the Italian Services PMI was decreased to 46.4 from the expected 46.9 and weighed on Euro. 

At 12:50 GMT, the French Final Services PMI for June rose to 50.7 from the 50.3 expected and supported Euro. At 12:55 GMT, the German Final Manufacturing PMI rose to 47.3 in June from the forecasted 45.8 and supported Euro. At 13:00 GMT, the Final Services PMI from the whole bloc for June rose to 48.3 from the expected 47.3 and supported Euro.

The positive PMI data from the whole bloc except Italy gave a boost to single currency Euro at the ending day of the week and raised EUR/USD pair. However, due to a limited number of traders, the currency pair failed to provide a significant bullish move and remained in consolidation.

On the US-EU relation front, earlier this week, the E.U. declined to include the U.S. in its list of “safe-countries” that will be welcomed to enter E.U. bloc during a pandemic. However, given the unshakable alliance between both nations, in a political move, the E.U. would now open the majority of E.U. borders for some residents of the United States. It was not surprising that Americans would indeed enter the E.U. even with almost 3 million COVID-29 cases from 50 U.S. states.

On the negative side, according to European diplomats, the strained alliance of the E.U. and the U.S. would restore in Joe Biden’s presidency. The Presidency of Donald Trump has weighed on the relation of the U.S. with its closest allies, including the European Union. The attacks on International institutions like WHO by Trump have been stressful for its allies. Trump’s disliking for multilateral action has tested longstanding alliances, and European diplomats and foreign policy experts believe that Joe Biden will repair the damage done by Trump to America’s broken alliance with Europe.

This week, the consumer confidence and retail sales figures from Eurozone will be under watch from Euro traders for taking fresh impetus. The attention would also be upon the update of the Recovery fund and announcement of new Eurogroup President.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.1339
  • R2 1.1312
  • R1 1.1298

Pivot Point 1.1271

  • S1 1.1256
  • S2 1.123
  • S3 1.1215

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

On Monday, the EUR/USD has violated in a tight range of 1.1243 – 1.1193, which has opened further room for buying until 1.1350. On the lower side, the EUR/USD may find support around 1.1290 and 1.2050. The MACD and RSI are holding in a bullish zone and are supporting the bullish bias in EUR/USD. While the 50 EMA is also supporting bullish bias in the EUR/USD pair, let’s consider taking buying trade in EUR/USD above 1.2565 level today. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

 The GBP/USD closed at 1.24825 after placing a high of 1.24863 and a low of 1.24378. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. The GBP/USD pair moved higher in the risk-on market sentiment after the positive data released from China’s Services sector and continued moving in the same trend to recover some of its previous day’s losses on Friday.

The Caixin Services PMI from China rose to 58.4 in June and indicated growth in the service sector of the second-largest economy of the world. This raised the risk sentiment on the back of increased hopes for sharp V-shaped recovery after China’s positive data. Being a riskier currency pair, the GBP/USD pair moved higher in the market in an improved risk appetite.

On the other hand, the Final Services PMI from Great Britain was released at 13:10 GMT, as 47.1 against the expected 47.0 in June and provided strength to British Pound. The strong GBP pushed GBP/USD further at the ending day of the week.

In the absence of U.S. traders due to bank holiday in the United States, the pair GBP/USD followed the British Pound and Brexit news on Friday.

On Brexit front, Boris Johnson suggested that the prospect of failing to reach a Brexit trade deal before the end of the transition period would be a “very good option” for the U.K.

The remarks from PM Boris Johnson came in after the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, warned the E.U. to be prepared for the possible failure of Brexit trade talks. She said that the progress in the negotiations and chances to reach a deal were minimal. However, PM Boris Johnson remained positive and optimistic and said that he believed that a good agreement would be reached, but if it failed, then the U.K. will have a very good option of the Australian-style deal.

The European Commissioner for trade, Phil Hogan, has said that the E.U. has not an agreement with Australian, and if the U.K. was seeking an “Australian-style” deal with the bloc, then it was a code for no-deal at all.

Meanwhile, on Saturday, PM Boris Johnson and Kenya’s counterpart, Uhuru Kenyatta, agreed to start negotiations for a post-Brexit trade agreement between the two nations. The talks will be conducted within the Kenya-UK Strategic Partnership Framework established in January and the East African Community parameters.

 Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.2657
  • R2 1.2574
  • R1 1.2524

Pivot Point 1.2441

  • S1 1.239
  • S2 1.2308
  • S3 1.2257

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading at 1.249 level, and it’s finding immediate support at 1.2478 level. Closing of candles above 1.2478 level can open further room for buying until double top resistance level of 1.2530 level. While, the bullish breakout of 1.2530 level, can drive further buying in Cable until 1.2620 level. The RSI and MACD show bullish bias as the MACD and RSI are holding in a buying zone. Let’s consider taking a buy trades above 1.2441 level today.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY closed at 107/475 after placing a high of 107.565 and a low of 107.434. In the absence of U.S. traders due to U.S. Bank Holiday and economic data from Japan, traders remained confused in the market due to the influence of positive data from economies and the increasing number of coronavirus cases.

The USD/JPY remained confined in a closed range and provided a slightly bearish candle at the ending day of the week due to mixed economic market sentiment. The risk sentiment was improved after the release of economic data about the Caixin Services PMI from China, which indicated an expansion in China’s services sector. 

The Caixin Services PMI rose to 58.1 in June, the highest reading in 2 months. It rose the risk appetite in the market, so the USD/JPY pair rose in the earlier trading session. The U.S. jobs figure was also improved on Thursday with 4.8M job creation in June, this also added in the risk appetite. 

However, the USD/JPY pair started moving in the reverse direction due to an increased number of coronavirus cases from across the world. The U.S. recorded more than 52,000 new cases from its 50 states on Thursday, with Florida alone accounting for over 10,000 of them. The U.S. alone was accounted for around a quarter of 10.8M global coronavirus cases. The U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the U.S. dollar value against the basket of six currencies was down 0.1% at 97.203 and dragged the USD/JPY pair on Friday.

On the US-China front, as we already know that the relation between both nations was further deteriorating over a series of issues including trade, COVID-19 pandemic, Taiwan, and Hong Kong, but on Friday, the U.S. deployed two aircraft carriers on the South China Sea which is considered as a significant show of force.

Furthermore, some reports came in that China was forcing birth control and sterilization in Uighurs to destroy the Muslim population. However, China’s foreign ministry spokesman called this news as fake.

In response to this, 75 members of the U.S. Congress sent a letter to Donald Trump urging the President to make a formal determination on whether China’s attitude towards Uighurs Muslims and other groups constituted an atrocity. These tensions raised US-China ongoing conflict and weighed on the market sentiment, which dragged the USD/JPY pair with itself.

Daily Support and Resistance    

  • R3 108.79
  • R2 108.48
  • R1 107.98

Pivot Point 107.67

  • S1 107.17
  • S2 106.86
  • S3 106.36

 

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Monday, the USD/JPY is trading with a bearish bias of around 107.560. On the two-hourly charts, the USD/JPY is gaining bullish support from the regression channel. Channel is expected to support the USD/JPY pair around 107.420 while crossing below this level can open up further room for selling until 107 and 106.850 level. The 50 EMA will also be supporting the Japanese pair at 107.300 level. However, the MACD and RSI are suggesting selling bias. Let’s keep an eye on 107.400 level to buy above and sell below this level. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

GBP/USD Breaks Upward – Let’s Capture Bullish Run!

Entry Price – Buy 1.24947

Entry Price – Buy 1.24947

The GBP/USD currency pair extended its early-day gains and rose above 1.2500 level benefited from the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness triggered by the risk-on market sentiment. On the other hand, the latest warning over negative interest rates by the Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey become the key factor that kept a lid on a currency pair’s additional gains. Whereas, the hopes of hike in property tax threshold, cut VAT triggered by the country’s Finance Minister Rishi Sunak could benefit the British Pound and underpin the upside in the GBP/USD pair. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.2485 and consolidates in the range between the 1.2459 – 1.2510. However, the pair’s traders seem cautious to place any strong position ahead of Brexit talks in London.

The Brexit Party Chairman Richard Tice has already warned the E.U. over fisheries’ differences before starting the Brexit negotiations. The uncertainty in talks could also be associated with the Financial Times news that suggests the U.K. missed a deadline that could freeze funds.

On the other hand, the Bank of England (BOE) Governor Andrew Bailey held a meeting with leaders of banks at the end of June wherein they have discussed negative rates, and Bailey reportedly said, “every tool they have is on the table.” In the meantime, the British newspaper also reported that Governor Bailey had written a letter to bankers warning them of the challenges of negative interest rates. As per the message, the negative rates were one of the potential tools under active review if the MPC decided that more stimulus was needed to achieve the BOE’s 2% price target. This above report could become a key factor that pushes the currency pair lower below 1.2400 at the weekly opening.

Meanwhile, the country’s Finance Minister Rishi Sunak is considering plans to raise the property tax threshold to as high as GBP500K ($623,700) while temporarily slashing the value-added tax (VAT) in the hospitality sector, to boost the economy, as per the U.K. Times. This report helped currency pair to stay bid.

The currency pair traders will take clues from how the British Chancellor Rishi Sunak will use his Wednesday’s plan to control the economic gloom triggered by the coronavirus (COVID-19). As per the market forecast, the Tory government may use creative ways, like vouchers to adults and children, to inject further liquidity into the key economic sectors.

Besides this, the Tory government got huge criticism after people ignore social distancing rules triggered by the U.K.’s reopening of pubs and bars from Saturday.

At the USD front, the broad-based U.S. dollar failed to gain some positive traction and edged lower on the day mainly due to the lack of safe-haven demand in the market backed by the upbeat key data from the U.S. and China. Whereas, the investors cautiously withdrew their money from the safe-haven asset due to the optimism over U.S. services sector activity data due to be released later in the day. However, the losses in the U.S. dollar become the key factors that kept the currency pair higher. Whereas, the U.S. Dollar Index Futures that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies slipped 0.37% to 96.940 by 12:29 AM ET (5:29 AM GMT).


The GBP/USD pair is trading with a bullish bias above 50 EMA which is supporting the pair around 1.2479 level. Considering the support level and the bullish bias extended by the MACD and RSI, we decided to take a buying trade in the GBP/USD pair. But soon the Cable started forming bearish setup, and luckily we managed to close the pair in profit ahead of bearish reversal.

Entry Price – Buy 1.24947

Stop Loss – 1.24547

Take Profit – 1.25347

Risk to Reward – 1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

Categories
Forex Signals

Choppy Session in Gold Continues – Brace for a Breakout! 

The safe-haven-metal prices failed to stop its previous day losing streak and remained depressed around $1772 from the multi-year highs level, mainly due to the risk-on market sentiment that was backed by the release of positive data from the U.S. and China. On the other hand, the ever-increasing number of COVID-19 cases globally and simmering tensions between the U.S. and China turned out to be the key factors that kept a lid on any additional losses in the gold prices. However, the selling bias surrounding the U.S. dollar might turn out to be the only factor giving some support to the dollar-denominated commodity (gold) and limiting deeper losses. The yellow metal prices are currently trading at 1,773.74 and consolidated in the range between the 1,772.95 – 1,777.16.

The safe-haven-metal prices failed to stop its previous day losing streak and remained depressed around $1772 from the multi-year highs level, mainly due to the risk-on market sentiment that was backed by the release of positive data from the U.S. and China. On the other hand, the ever-increasing number of COVID-19 cases globally and simmering tensions between the U.S. and China turned out to be the key factors that kept a lid on any additional losses in the gold prices. However, the selling bias surrounding the U.S. dollar might turn out to be the only factor giving some support to the dollar-denominated commodity (gold) and limiting deeper losses. The yellow metal prices are currently trading at 1,773.74 and consolidated in the range between the 1,772.95 – 1,777.16.

The safe-haven-metal prices failed to stop its previous day losing streak and remained depressed around $1772 from the multi-year highs level, mainly due to the risk-on market sentiment that was backed by the release of positive data from the U.S. and China. On the other hand, the ever-increasing number of COVID-19 cases globally and simmering tensions between the U.S. and China turned out to be the key factors that kept a lid on any additional losses in the gold prices. However, the selling bias surrounding the U.S. dollar might turn out to be the only factor giving some support to the dollar-denominated commodity (gold) and limiting deeper losses. The yellow metal prices are currently trading at 1,773.74 and consolidated in the range between the 1,772.95 – 1,777.16.

At the U.S. data front, the report of NFP showed that the U.S. economy built 4.8 million jobs in June against market expectations of 3 million. Whereas, the previous month’s reading was also recovered higher to +2.699 million as against 2.509 million reported earlier. In the meantime, the unemployment rate dropped more than expected to 11.1% from 13.3% previously, which boosted the investor’s confidence as they believe that the worse of the coronavirus pandemic was behind us.

At the China data front, China reported a Caixin Services Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) of 58.4 for June on the day, which surpassed the previous month’s readings of 55. Let me remind you; this was the highest PMI reading in two months.

On the other hand, the optimism about the positive results from the potential COVID-19 vaccine has remained supportive of the market mood, which tends to weaken demand for traditional safe havens and exerted some pressure on the yellow metal.

Apart from this, the on-going concerns over a second economic lockdown in the U.S. due to the surging number of confirmed coronavirus cases assisted the yellow-metal to keep a lid on any additional losses.

As per the latest report, the United States reported record coronavirus cases for the 3rd-straight day on Thursday with 52,789 latest numbers. In the meantime, Florida reported 10,109 new cases, while Texas recorded 7,915 new cases during the previous day. The record hike in the virus cases urges the Trump administration to think about the second economic lockdown, which weighs on the economic sentiment. However, this intensifying pandemic situation turned out to be one of the key factors that kept a lid on any additional losses in the gold.

At the Hong Kong front, the on-going tussle between the United States and China over the Hong Kong security law got an additional boost as U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo recently criticized China’s Communist Party’s (CCP) decision on the Hong Kong security law by tweeting during the early Friday morning in Asia. As per the tweet, “The CCP implemented its national security law on Hong Kong, in violation of the commitments it made to the Hong Kong people– and disregarding Hong Kongers’ human rights and fundamental freedoms. 

In the meantime, the Hong Kong activist Nathan Law said during the early Friday morning in Asia that the human rights activists showed concern against Chinese security law and urged global leaders to help get justice. Elsewhere, the latest report suggests that many Hong Kong business people and experts are seriously considering leaving Hong Kong due to China’s crackdown.

However, this matter could exert additional downside pressure on the market’s risk-tone sentiment recently weighed down by the coronavirus (COVID-19) concerns. Whereas, the reason behind previous day declines could also be associated with the reports that showed India’s imports dropped 86% YoY in June. At the data front, the world’s second-biggest consumer of the yellow-metal imported around 11 tonnes of gold in June, down from 77.73 tonnes a year ago. In the meantime, the June imports dropped to $608.76 million from $2.7 billion a year ago as per value terms.


Daily Support and Resistance

S1 1726.83

S2 1749

S3 1762.59

Pivot Point 1771.17

R1 1784.76

R2 1793.34

R3 1815.51

The precious metal gold technical side hasn’t improved a lot. Overall, the XAU/USD is trading in a broad trading area of 1,776 to 1,766 levels. The bullish trendline on the one hour chart is supporting the bullish sentiment in gold. On the lower side, support for gold commands around the 1,759 and 1,749 levels. On the other hand, a bullish breakout on the 1,776 level could lengthen the buying bias to the 1,789 mark. Looking at the technical indicators, the RSI, MACD, and 50 periods EMA are supporting the gold’s bullish bias today. Good luck and happy weekend! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, July 03 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – U.S. Independence Day! 

A day before, the highly noticed Non-Farm Employment Change from the United States was increased to 4.8M from the expected 3.037M and supported the U.S. dollar. The Unemployment rate from the U.S. in June dropped to 11.1% from the 12.4% forecasted and helped the U.S. dollar. The news side is a bit muted today, and we may see no major even as the U.S. Banks will be closed in the observance of U.S. independence day.

A day before, the highly noticed Non-Farm Employment Change from the United States was increased to 4.8M from the expected 3.037M and supported the U.S. dollar. The Unemployment rate from the U.S. in June dropped to 11.1% from the 12.4% forecasted and helped the U.S. dollar. The news side is a bit muted today, and we may see no major even as the U.S. Banks will be closed in the observance of U.S. independence day.

A day before, the highly noticed Non-Farm Employment Change from the United States was increased to 4.8M from the expected 3.037M and supported the U.S. dollar. The Unemployment rate from the U.S. in June dropped to 11.1% from the 12.4% forecasted and helped the U.S. dollar. The news side is a bit muted today, and we may see no major even as the U.S. Banks will be closed in the observance of U.S. independence day.

Economic Events to Watch Today 

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.12393 after placing a high of 1.13025 and a low of 1.12232. Overall the movement of the EUR/USD pair remained bearish throughout the day. The EUR/USD pair in its early trading session rose to nearly six days high on the back of increased risk appetite in the market. The increased number of jobs created from the United States in June improved market risk sentiment, which raised riskier currency pair EUR/USD pair. However, the pair failed to extend its gains and started moving in the reverse direction after the release of NFP data from the United States.

The EUR/USD currency pair remained well-supportive ahead NFP data from the U.S. due to increased hopes of renewed jobs that increased risk sentiment. After a better than expected rise in job data, the traders started following the results, which were in favor of the U.S. dollar, and the EUR/USD pair came under pressure.

The investors’ appetite was already up after the global economies’ positive data indicated faster recovery after a sharp earlier contraction. However, the second wave of coronavirus continued its fever around the market and kept a lid on investors’ appetite, which reversed the pair’s bullish trend on Thursday.

Meanwhile, the earlier gains of EUR/USD could also be attributed to the attractiveness of shared currency Euro that was under spot after the gradual reopening of the European economy despite the second wave of coronavirus. The persistent monetary stimulus from the European Central Bank and effective control of the virus spread added strength in Euro.

On data front at 12:00 GMT, the Spanish Unemployment Change in June came in as 5.1K against the forecasted -113.0K and weighed on Euro. At 13:00 GMT, the Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate was dropped to 7.8% from the forecasted 7.9% and supported Euro.

At 14:00 GMT, the Producer Price Index from the whole bloc was dropped to -0.6% in May from the expected -0.4% and weighed on Euro. The Unemployment Rate from Eurozone for May was declined to 7.4% against the expected 7.6% and supported Euro.

The Eurozone’s mixed data failed to provide any specific move to the EUR/USD pair on Thursday so, traders continued to follow the U.S. dollar signals for fresh impetus.

On the other hand, from America, the highly noticed Non-Farm Employment Change from the United States was increased to 4.8M from the expected 3.037M and supported the U.S. dollar. The Unemployment rate from the U.S. in June dropped to 11.1% from the 12.4% forecasted and helped the U.S. dollar. The U.S. dollar strength dragged the rising currency pair EUR/USD in the late session, and hence EUR/USD pair ended its day with a bearish candle.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.138
  • R2 1.1328
  • R1 1.1289

Pivot Point 1.1237

  • S1 1.1198
  • S2 1.1146
  • S3 1.1108

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is trading in a tight range of 1.1243 – 1.1193, limiting the price action for now. On the lower side, the EUR/USD pair can drop towards 1.1145 level upon the bearish breakout of 1.1193 level, while the bullish breakout of 1.1243 level will allow us to go long. On Friday, the pair may show slow movement in the wake of the U.S. bank holiday. Anyhow, we should look for selling below 1.1295 and buying above 1.1193 level. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

 The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.24679 after placing a high of 1.25297 and a low of 1.24559. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained flat but slightly bearish throughout the day. The GBP/USD pair extended its previous daily gains and rose near a one-week top on Thursday in early trading hours amid increasing risk sentiment and selling bias around the U.S. dollar.

The increased risk sentiment resulted in the positive momentum around GBP/USD pair after a potential COVID-19 vaccine by the joint efforts from German biotech firm BioNTech and U.S. pharmaceutical giant Pfizer, which gave positive results in its phase1 and phase 2 trials. This, in turn, undermined the demand for safe-haven U.S. dollar and raised GBP/USD pair towards a one-week high level.

The global risk sentiment was further supported by the U.S. monthly jobs report of Non-Farm Payroll. The positive data showed that the coronaviruses worst was probably over, and the hopes for sharp V-shaped recovery again came on board. The intraday profit-taking in GBP/USD was prompted after the risk –on market flow took its pace in the presence of persistent Brexit uncertainties.

In the latest Brexit round of talks, E.U. & U.K. officials failed to make any breakthrough on several vital issues. The negative comment from E.U. negotiator Michel Barnier that there was a still serious gap between Bloc and Britain weighed on GBP/USD pair.

The pair was further dragged in late after the release of a decreased unemployment rate from the U.S., which added strength to the U.S. dollar and dragged the GBP/USD pair with itself. At 17:30 GMT, the Non-Farm Employment Change for June showed that 4.800M jobs were created in one June, which gave strength to the U.S. dollar and dragged the GBP/USD pair from its daily gains. The Unemployment Rate from June also dropped to 11.1% from expected 12.4% and supported the U.S. dollar, which weighed on GBP/USD prices and turned the daily gins in losses.

A meeting between U.K. and E.U. negotiators scheduled for Friday this week has been delayed to next week due to divergence between them. This has raised serious doubts over securing the Brexit deal before the end of the transition period in December. This kept British Pound under heavy pressure and the pair GBP/USD on the downside on Thursday.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.2657
  • R2 1.2574
  • R1 1.2524

Pivot Point 1.2441

  • S1 1.239
  • S2 1.2308
  • S3 1.2257

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading at 1.249 level, and it’s finding immediate support at 1.2478 level. Closing of candles above 1.2478 level can open further room for buying until double top resistance level of 1.2530 level. While, the bullish breakout of 1.2530 level, can drive further buying in Cable until 1.2620 level. The RSI and MACD show bullish bias as the MACD and RSI are holding in a buying zone. Let’s consider taking a buy trades above 1.2441 level today.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 107.495 after placing a high of 107.722 and a low of 107.330. Overall the movement of USD/JPY remained bullish throughout the day. At 4:50 GMT, the Monetary Base for the year from Japan surged to 6.0% from the anticipated 4.2% and supported Japanese Yen, which kept a lid on the additional gains in USD/JPY pair.

At 17:30 GMT, the Average Hourly Earnings from the U.S. fell by 1.2% from the expected decline of 0.8% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The Non-Farm Employment Change added 4.8M jobs in June against the expected 3.037M jobs and added strength in the U.S. dollar, which raised USD/JPY pair.

The Unemployment Rate from the U.S. for June also decreased to 11.1% from the expected 12.4% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Unemployment Claims from the previous week was not in favor of the U.S. dollar as it surged to1.427M against the expected 1.35M. The Trade Balance from the U.S. showed a deficit of 54.6B against the expected deficit of 53.0B and weighed on the U.S. dollar. At 19:00 GMT, the Factory Orders from the U.S. also declined to 8.0% from the expected 8.6% and weighed on the U.S. dollar.

The Non-Farm Payroll data showed a record high number of jobs created in June by the U.S. economy raised risk sentiment in the market after the hopes of sharp V-shaped economic recovery emerged due to a rise in NFP. It raised USD/JPY riskier assets across the board on Thursday, but the gains started to fell after the release of other economic data. The negative reports related to unemployment claims, factory orders, and trade balance from the U.S. exerted pressure on USD/JPY pair on Thursday.

Daily Support and Resistance    

  • R3 108.79
  • R2 108.48
  • R1 107.98

Pivot Point 107.67

  • S1 107.17
  • S2 106.86
  • S3 106.36

 

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading with a bearish bias of around 107.560. On the two-hourly charts, the USD/JPY is gaining bullish support from the regression channel. Channel is expected to support the USD/JPY pair around 107.420 while crossing below this level can open up further room for selling until 107 and 106.850 level. The 50 EMA will also be supporting the Japanese pair at 107.300 level. However, the MACD and RSI are suggesting selling bias. Let’s keep an eye on 107.400 level to buy above and sell below this level. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

EUR/GBP Triple Bottom Support – Is It Worth Buying?

Entry Price – Buy 0.90313 

Entry Price – Buy 0.90313 

The EUR/GBP is trading at 0.9020 level, supported by the upward trendline at 0.9020. It seems like the pair is in the consolidation phase on the back of the NFP figure as investors’ focus has shifted to US-related pairs. Yet, the EU and UK fundamentals are influencing the movement in the EUR/GBP pair.

As per the latest statement, the Dutch Prime Minister (PM) Mark Rutte said that the discussions on the European Union (EU) recovery fund could take time, but a compromise is possible in the coming days. However, the hopeful outlook about the potential EU recovery fund deal is expected to support the shared currency as the Netherlands is among the ‘frugal four’ countries, who remain opposed to European Commission plans for the EUR750bn post-coronavirus recovery fund. This brings the bullish bias for the Euro currency.

On the other hand, the European labor market data also supported the Euro. The EU unemployment rate soared to 6.7% in May 2020 vs. 6.6% in April 2020, and these are the figures reported by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. While the unemployment rate slipped to 7.4% vs. 7.6% during the previous month, better figures may help support the EUR/GBP pair.


Technically, the EUR/GBP is supported by a triple bottom support level of 0.9020, and the closing of candles above this level may drive buying until 0.9070 level.

Entry Price – Buy 0.90313 

Stop Loss – 0.89913 

Take Profit – 0.90713

Risk to Reward – 1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$496/ +$496

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$49.6/ +$49.6

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, July 02 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – U.S. NFP Under Spotlight! 

The broad-based U.S. dollar drew offers on the day, possibly due to the modest upbeat trading sentiment backed by the hopes of further stimulus and upbeat outcome of the global PMIs. However, the losses in the greenback could be short-lived or temporary as the second wave of coronavirus continuously picking up pace in the U.S., which boosts the safe-haven demand in the market.

The broad-based U.S. dollar drew offers on the day, possibly due to the modest upbeat trading sentiment backed by the hopes of further stimulus and upbeat outcome of the global PMIs. However, the losses in the greenback could be short-lived or temporary as the second wave of coronavirus continuously picking up pace in the U.S., which boosts the safe-haven demand in the market.

The broad-based U.S. dollar drew offers on the day, possibly due to the modest upbeat trading sentiment backed by the hopes of further stimulus and upbeat outcome of the global PMIs. However, the losses in the greenback could be short-lived or temporary as the second wave of coronavirus continuously picking up pace in the U.S., which boosts the safe-haven demand in the market.

Although, the losses in the U.S. dollar turned out to be one of the key factors that kept a lid on any additional losses in the gold prices as the price of gold is inversely related to the price of the U.S. dollar. Whereas, the U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies dropped 0.04% to 97.118 by 11:30 PM. Brace for U.S. NFP figures today.

Economic Events to Watch Today 

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR fell below the bottom of our expected 1.1200/1.1270 area recently (low of 1.1183) ere catching back up to 1.1274. Despite the speedy bounce, the skyward drive has slightly improved. Nevertheless, EUR can bind nearer to 1.1290. For now, 1.1330 isn’t expected to challenge this level until the NFP comes out to be negative. Support is at 1.1225 followed by 1.1200

On the data front, at 11:45 GMT, the French Consumer Spending for May increased to 36.6% from the expected 30.0% and supported Euro. The French Prelim CPI for June dropped negative to -0.1% from the forecasted 0.4% and weighed on Euro, which ultimately dragged the EUR/USD pair with itself. At 14:00 GMT, the CPI Flash Estimate for the year increased to 0.3% from the expected -0.1% and supported Euro. The Core CPI Flash Estimate for the year remained flat with the projected 0.8%. The Italian Prelim CPI also remained flat with the expectations of 0.1% in June.

On the other hand, from the United States, the S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI increased to 4.0% from the expected 3.8% and supported the U.S. dollar for the year. At 18:45 GMT, the Chicago PMI dropped to 36.6 from the anticipated 45.0 and weighed on the U.S. dollar. At 19:00 GMT, the C.B. Consumer Confidence rose to 98.1 from the expected 91.6 and supported the U.S. dollar added in the downfall of EUR/USD pair on Tuesday.

The U.S. Fed chairman, Jerome Powell, provided a gloomy and unexpectedly uncertain outlook for the biggest economy of the world, which weighed on the U.S. dollar and supported the EUR/USD currency pair.

Later today, the course of the breakout will probably be determined by the U.S. payrolls release, which is anticipated to confer the economy appended 3,000K jobs in June following May’s 2509K expanding. The unemployment claims, too, are projected to grow to 7.7% in June from 7.3% in May. Meantime, Average Hourly Earnings are supposed to have grown by 5.3% year-on-year in June, indicating a strike from May’s increase of 6.7%. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.138
  • R2 1.1328
  • R1 1.1289

Pivot Point 1.1237

  • S1 1.1198
  • S2 1.1146
  • S3 1.1108

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is trading below a strong resistance level of 1.1285 level, closing candles below this level, and suggesting chances of selling bias until the 1.1218 level. Continuation of selling trend under 1.1280 level can extend bearish movement unto 1.1195 level today. Alternatively, a bullish breakout of the 1.1285 level can continue buying until the 1.1350 level. Mixed sentiments play as investors are waiting for the U.S. NFP and Unemployment figures, which are due later today. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

During the Asian session, the GBP/USD takes stairs to 1.2485, up 0.06% on a day, while heading into the London open on Thursday. The Cable lately profited from the U.S. dollar’s lazy moves ahead of the key U.S. jobs announcement for June. Nevertheless, Brexit distress and concerns of more job declines in the U.K. have shielded the quote’s immediate bullish move.

The lack of consensus over the key Brexit concerns forced German Chancellor Angela Merkel to respond, “The European Union (E.U.) obliges to be equipped for the probability that they may not be ready to meet an alliance with the United Kingdom (U.K.).” This major news exhibits the downbeat performance of the EU-UK exit discussions in Brussels. Besides acting as the Brexit-negative sign could be the news from the U.K. Express indicating that higher than 300 EU vessels will be counted as an attack of British waters following no-deal departure.

According to Haldane, the risks of the economic outlook were considerable and two-sided. He added that the risks were more evenly balanced in June than in May and remained skewed. The views that the U.K. economy was on track for V-shaped recovery gave strength to the British Pound and pushed the GBP/USD pair on the upward track.

The strong rebound in the Pound could also be attributed to the little signs of progress on the latest post-Brexit talks. E.U. Negotiator Michel Barnier criticized Britain for choosing not to extend the deadline for the transition period that will end on Dec.31. He also said that Britain was trying to secure as many single markets as possible while showing little compromises on key sticking points, including the level playing field, security, and fisheries.

On the U.S. front, the course of the breakout will probably be determined by the U.S. payrolls release, which is anticipated to confer the economy appended 3,000K jobs in June following May’s 2509K expanding. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.2657
  • R2 1.2574
  • R1 1.2524

Pivot Point 1.2441

  • S1 1.239
  • S2 1.2308
  • S3 1.2257

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading with a bullish bias as the dollar is getting weaker ahead of the U.S. NFP figures. The GBP/USD is trading at 1.249 level, and it’s finding immediate support at 1.2478 level. Closing of candles above 1.2478 level can open further room for buying until double top resistance level of 1.2530 level. While, the bullish breakout of 1.2530 level, can drive further buying in Cable until 1.2620 level. The RSI and MACD show bullish bias as the MACD and RSI are holding in a buying zone. Let’s consider taking a buy trades above 1.2441 level today.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The Japanese yen saw significant outflows into overseas investments towards the end of the month but could all come back on the risks of a second wave impact on U.S. stocks. Some states in the U.S. have reversed the reopening of economies and closed their businesses on fears of a second wave of coronavirus. The U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned on Tuesday that the second wave of coronavirus outbreak would damage consumer confidence and weaken the economy.

He was cautious that during the second outbreak, the government and people could withdraw again from the economic activity. He added that the worst part of the second wave would be the downward impact on public confidence, which could play a crucial role in getting back to economic activity.

In Republican Arizona, gyms bars, movies, and theatres and water parks were shut down for at least 30 days. These institutions were reopened in middle May, but after the rise in the infected cases across the country, the government announced to shut them down.

The health care professionals in Houston have urged residents to remain at home, wear masks, and cancel gatherings in the wake of intensified virus cases. The residents of Houston also received an emergency alert on their phones to stay home as virus infections have spiked in the town. Later today, the focus will stay on the U.S. NFP to determine further moves in the USD/JPY pair. 

Daily Support and Resistance    

  • R3 108.79
  • R2 108.48
  • R1 107.98

Pivot Point 107.67

  • S1 107.17
  • S2 106.86
  • S3 106.36

 

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Thursday, the USD/JPY is trading with a bearish bias of around 107.560. On the two-hourly charts, the USD/JPY is gaining bullish support from the regression channel. Channel is expected to support the USD/JPY pair around 107.420 while crossing below this level can open up further room for selling until 107 and 106.850 level. The 50 EMA will also be supporting the Japanese pair at 107.300 level. However, the MACD and RSI are suggesting selling bias. Let’s keep an eye on 107.400 level to buy above and sell below this level. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

Daily F.X. Analysis, July 01 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – ADP Non-farm In Highlights! 

On the news front, the primary focus will stay on the ADP non-farm payroll figures, which are expected to be positive. If the actual data also comes out positive, we are going to see sharp selling in gold. Conversely, the negative data can drive selling the dollar and buying in gold.

On the news front, the primary focus will stay on the ADP non-farm payroll figures, which are expected to be positive. If the actual data also comes out positive, we are going to see sharp selling in gold. Conversely, the negative data can drive selling the dollar and buying in gold.

On the news front, the primary focus will stay on the ADP non-farm payroll figures, which are expected to be positive. If the actual data also comes out positive, we are going to see sharp selling in gold. Conversely, the negative data can drive selling the dollar and buying in gold.

Economic Events to Watch Today 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD closed at 1.12333 after placing a high of 1.12616 and a low of 1.11908. Overall the movement of the EUR/USD pair remained flat but slightly bearish throughout the day. The pair EUR/USD moved in sideways during Tuesday’s trading session and ended the day with some losses. The greenback was strong throughout the day ahead of Fed chair Jerome Powell’s speech and weighed on EUR/USD pair. However, after the speech, the U.S. dollar became weak, and the EUR/USD pair recovered some of its daily losses.

On the data front, at 11:45 GMT, the French Consumer Spending for the month of May increased to 36.6% from the expected 30.0% and supported Euro. The French Prelim CPI for the month of June dropped negative to -0.1% from the forecasted 0.4% and weighed on Euro, which ultimately dragged the EUR/USD pair with itself.

At 14:00 GMT, the CPI Flash Estimate for the year increased to 0.3% from the expected -0.1% and supported Euro. The Core CPI Flash Estimate for the year remained flat with the projected 0.8%. The Italian Prelim CPI also remained flat with the expectations of 0.1% in June.

On the other hand, from the United States, the S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI increased to 4.0% from the expected 3.8% and supported the U.S. dollar for the year. At 18:45 GMT, the Chicago PMI dropped to 36.6 from the anticipated 45.0 and weighed on the U.S. dollar. At 19:00 GMT, the C.B. Consumer Confidence rose to 98.1 from the expected 91.6 and supported the U.S. dollar added in the downfall of EUR/USD pair on Tuesday.

The U.S. Fed chairman, Jerome Powell, provided a gloomy and unexpectedly uncertain outlook for the biggest economy of the world, which weighed on the U.S. dollar and supported the EUR/USD currency pair.

The increased number of infected cases from many states of the U.S. raised alarming bells, and some states again started to shut down economic activity. The second outbreak forced people to stay in their homes once again and keep them away from the labor market after hurting their confidence level. According to Powell, full consumer confidence was vital to full economic recovery. Euro investors will be looking forward to the release of Germany’s Unemployment Rate figures for June on Wednesday for fresh impetus.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.1241
  • R2 1.1235
  • R1 1.1229

Pivot Point 1.1223

  • S1 1.1217
  • S2 1.1211
  • S3 1.1205

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is trading below a strong resistance level of 1.1245 level, closing candles below this level, and suggesting chances of selling bias until the 1.1218 level. Continuation of selling trend under 1.1218 level can extend selling unto 1.1195 level today. Alternatively, a bullish breakout of the 1.1245 level can continue buying until 1.1289. Mixed sentiments play as investors are waiting for the U.S. ADP figures, which are due later today. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.24002 after placing a high of 1.24016 and a low of 1.22574. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. The Pound raised against the dollar after clawing back early day losses on Tuesday amid the suggestion by Bank of England that the U.K. was on track for a stronger than expected rebound after the worst slump in more than 40 years in the first quarter of 2020.

At 11:00 GMT, the Current Account Balance from the United Kingdom showed a deficit of 21.1B against the expected deficit by 15.2B and weighed on British Pound. The Final GDP for the first quarter dropped to -2.2% against the forecasted -2.0% and weighed on British Pound. The Revised Business Investment for the quarter also came in as -0.3% from the 0.1% and weighed on British Pound.

In an earlier trading session on Tuesday, GBP/USD remained under pressure due to poor than expected data from Britain’s side. However, after the positive comments from the chief economist from the Bank of England, the pair GBP/USD gained traction.        

On Tuesday, Andy Haldane said that recent signs suggested that Britain was on course for V-shaped economic recovery from the coronavirus-induced lockdowns, but there was still a risk of high & persistent unemployment.    

According to Haldane, the risks of the economic outlook were considerable and two-sided. He added that the risks were more evenly balanced in June than in May and remained skewed.  

The views that the U.K. economy was on track for V-shaped recovery gave strength to the British Pound on Tuesday and pushed the GBP/USD pair on the upward track.

The strong rebound in the Pound could also be attributed to the little signs of progress on the latest post-Brexit talks. E.U. Negotiator Michel Barnier criticized Britain for choosing not to extend the deadline for the transition period that will end on Dec.31. He also said that Britain was trying to secure as many single markets as possible while showing little compromises on key sticking points, including the level playing field, security, and fisheries.

On the U.S. front, the dollar was weak across the board after the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who provided an uncertain and gloomy outlook for the U.S. economy due to an increased number of infected cases in the U.S. that had forced the renewed lockdown measures in some states. The weak U.S. Dollar added in the gains of the GBP/USD currency pair on Tuesday.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.2381
  • R2 1.2367
  • R1 1.2354

Pivot Point 1.234

  • S1 1.2327
  • S2 1.2313
  • S3 1.23

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On Wednesday, the GBP/USD is trading with a bearish bias as the dollar is getting strong, perhaps due to the positive forecast of ADP figures. The GBP/USD is trading at 1.2375 level, and it’s finding immediate support at 1.2358 level. Closing of candles below 1.2404 level can open further room for selling until 38.2% Fibo level of 1.2340 level. But the bullish breakout of 1.2400 level can drive buying in Cable and can lead its prices towards the next target level of 1.2504 level. The RSI and MACD show diverse opinions as the MACD is in a selling zone, while the RSI is in a buying zone. Let’s consider taking a selling trades below 1.2400 level and buying above the same. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY was closed at 107.925 after placing a high of107.982 and a low of 107.519. At 4:30 GMT, the Unemployment Rate from Japan increased to 2.9% against the forecasted 2.8% in May and weighed on Japanese Yen that pushed USD/JPY pair higher. At 4:50 GMT, the Prelim Industrial Production was dropped by 8.4% in May against the expected drop of 5.6%, it weighed on Yen and supported USD/JPY pair.

The Japanese yen saw significant outflows into overseas investments towards the end of the month but could all come back on the risks of a second wave impact on U.S. stocks. Some states in the U.S. have reversed the reopening of economies and closed their businesses in the fears of the second wave of coronavirus. The U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned on Tuesday that the second wave of coronavirus outbreak would damage consumer confidence and weaken the economy.

He was cautious that during the second outbreak, the government and people could withdraw again from the economic activity. He added that the worst part of the second wave would be the downward impact on public confidence, which could play a crucial role in getting back to economic activity.

In Republican Arizona, gyms bars, movies, and theaters and water parks were shut down for at least 30 days. These institutions were reopened in middle May, but after the rise in the infected cases across the country, the government announced to shut them down.

The health care professionals in Houston have urged residents to remain at home, wear masks, and cancel gatherings in the wake of intensified virus cases. The residents of Houston also received an emergency alert on their phones to stay home as virus infections have spiked in the town.

Daily Support and Resistance    

  • R3 107.39
  • R2 107.31
  • R1 107.27

Pivot Point 107.19

  • S1 107.14
  • S2 107.07
  • S3 107.02

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Wednesday, the USD/JPY is trading with a bearish bias of around 107.560. On the two-hourly charts, the USD/JPY is gaining bullish support from the regression channel. Channel is expected to support the USD/JPY pair around 107.420 while crossing below this level can open up further room for selling until 107 and 106.850 level. The 50 EMA will also be supporting the Japanese pair at 107.300 level. However, the MACD and RSI are suggesting selling bias. Let’s keep an eye on 107.400 level to buy above and sell below this level. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

GBP/USD Up for Fibonacci Retracement – Let’s Capture Selling!

Entry Price – Sell 1.23654

Entry Price – Sell 1.23654

The GBP/USD extended its previous bullish moves and dropped to 1.2375 from the 1.2402 level while represented 0.17% losses on the day mainly due to the broad-based U.S. dollar strength due to risk-off market sentiment. On the other hand, the reason for the pair’s downside momentum could also be the fresh tension regarding the EU-UK Brexit talks, which eventually undermined the cable currency and contributed to the currency pair declines.

It is worth recalling that the currency pair was also burdened by the release of the final gross domestic product figure, suggesting that the first quarter’s contraction was deeper than initially estimated. At the data front, the U.K.’s GDP dropped 2.2% in the first quarter of 2020, mainly due to the Covid-19 outbreak, as per the revised estimate released by the Office of National Statistics Tuesday.

Afterward, the UK PM Johnson’s efforts (via infrastructure spending) to balance the worst GDP in 41 years gave some breath to the pair’s downside bias. Whereas, the currency pair buyers might not wait further as the departure talks between Britain and the European Union (E.U.) are not showing any progress. In the meantime, the updates suggest the old neighbors might again fail to deliver any trade deal when they bid adieu on December 31, 2020.

As per the E.U. Chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier, the United Kingdom has not completed necessary equivalence assessments by today’s deadline, signaling a shock to the U.K.’s efforts to determine the City’s access to E.U. Markets after Brexit.

Elsewhere, the Conservative Member of Parliament (M.P.) from the UK, Lia Nici, exerted some pressure on the E.U. while handling the controversial fishing access as no deal will finish off the fishing industries some of the key regional economies, as per the U.K. Express.

The GBP/USD is trading at 1.2375 level, and it’s finding immediate support at 1.2358 level. Closing of candles below 1.2404 level can open further room for selling until 38.2% Fibo level of 1.2340. But the bullish breakout of 1.2400 level can drive buying in Cable and can lead its prices towards the next target level of 1.2504 level. Unfortunately, the GBP/USD didn’t trade in line with our forecast and already hit the stop loss.


Entry Price – Sell 1.23654

Stop Loss – 1.24054

Take Profit – 1.23254

Risk to Reward – 1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$400/ +$400

Categories
Forex Signals

EUR/USD Crosses Below 50 EMA – Brace for Selling!

Entry Price – Sell 1.12256 

Entry Price – Sell 1.12256 

During the European session, the U.S. ADP department posted advanced NFP data, which showed optimization over the U.S. labor market. Companies in June continued to bring workers back from their pandemic furlough as the national economy slowly came back to life. According to a statement on Wednesday from ADP and Moody’s Analytics, private payrolls rose by 2.369 million for the period, a little weaker than the 2.5 million forecasts from economists seen by Dow Jones. The total realized a drop from the previous month, which marked a tense skyward revision to 3.065 million. ADP originally said May noticed a decline of 2.76 million.

The EUR/USD failed to stop its early-day losing streak and dropped to 1.1220 despite the release of the upbeat German Retail Sales data for May. However, the reason for the declines in the currency pair could be attributed to the broad-based U.S. dollar strength triggered by the uptick in the bond yields. On the other hand, the currency pair buyers also failed to cheer the Upbeat China PMI data possibly due to the continued rise in the coronavirus cases in the U.S.

At the data front, the country’s Retail Sales arrived at +13.9% MoM in May against +3.9% expected and -5.3% last as per the latest data reported by Germany’s Destatis on Wednesday. Surprisingly the Annual German Retail Sales arrived at +3.8% in May against -6.5% seen in April and -3.5% expected.


The EUR/USD is trading below a strong resistance level of 1.1245 level, closing candles below this level, and suggesting chances of selling bias until the 1.1218 level. Continuation of selling trend under 1.1218 level can extend selling unto 1.1195 level today. Alternatively, a bullish breakout of the 1.1245 level can continue buying until 1.1289.

 

Entry Price – Sell 1.12256 

Stop Loss – 1.12656 

Take Profit – 1.11856

Risk to Reward – 1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$400/ +$400

Categories
Forex Signals

EUR/GBP Breaks Symmetric Triangle – Brace for Sell Trade!

Entry Price – Sell 0.91248 

Entry Price – Sell 0.91248 

Our forex signal on EUR/GBP is doing pretty well as the pair has dropped to 0.9098 level. The single currency Euro seems to be in a nervous mood, perhaps due to the dovish remarks made by the European Central Bank policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau on Sunday, which could further undermine the shared currency and push the currency pair lower. However, the politician said that the monetary policy needed to remain loose until the central bank’s inflation target of 2% was clearly in sight.

It is worth mentioning that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Chief Economist Gita Gopinath said during the interview with Der Spiegel on Monday that the substantial part of the stimulus package must consist of grants rather than loans. She also said, “In case of more attribution to loans, then it will not promote economic recovery”, this statement exerted some downside pressure on the shared currency.

On the positive side, the European Union is expected to welcome travelers from more than a dozen countries not overwhelmed by the coronavirus, unlike the United States, Russia, and dozens of other countries. As of now, the traders seemed failed to cheer this fresh optimism as the European Union was thinking to stop most travelers from the United States, Russia, and dozens of other countries which are considered as too risky because they have not controlled the coronavirus outbreak yet.

Apart from this, the reason for the risk-off market sentiment could be associated with the recent report of the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak, which suggested the pandemic has already crossed approximately half a million lives. Whereas Texas-registered consecutive seven days of above 5,000 cases by the weekend, whereas California’s State Health Department said cases rose by 4,810 to 211,243 total as of June 27. The figures from Los Angeles County rose by near-record of 2,542 to a total of 97,894 by Sunday.

Technically, the EUR/GBP currency pair has violated the symmetric triangle pattern which is likely to lead the currency pair lower towards 0.9088 and 0.9068 level. The recent three black crows pattern is also supporting the selling bias in the EUR/GBP pair. Here’s a quick trade plan.

Entry Price – Sell 0.91248 

Stop Loss – 0.91648 Take Profit – 0.90848

Risk to Reward – 1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$400/ +$400

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, June 30 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eyes on U.S. News! 

On the news front, it’s going to be a busy day in the wake of U.S. Chicago PMI, C.B. Consumer Confidence, and Fed Chair Powell Testifies. The European session may exhibit muted trading, but the New York session is likely to bring sharp movements in the market, and we can expect breakouts.

On the news front, it’s going to be a busy day in the wake of U.S. Chicago PMI, C.B. Consumer Confidence, and Fed Chair Powell Testifies. The European session may exhibit muted trading, but the New York session is likely to bring sharp movements in the market, and we can expect breakouts.

On the news front, it’s going to be a busy day in the wake of U.S. Chicago PMI, C.B. Consumer Confidence, and Fed Chair Powell Testifies. The European session may exhibit muted trading, but the New York session is likely to bring sharp movements in the market, and we can expect breakouts.

Economic Events to Watch Today 

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.12423 after placing a high of 1.12876 and a low of 1.12149. Overall the movement of the EUR/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. During the Monday session, Euro broke higher and reached near 1.1300 level; however, U.S. dollar strength caped on any additional gains and took the prices away from that level. European Union has been praised for its handling of coronavirus crisis through its stimulus plans, and despite the increasing numbers of infected cases around the world, the E.U. has decided to open its gates for 15 countries.

European Union revealed a new list of countries that will be permitted to enter the E.U. from July 1 when external borders will be officially reopened. However, the U.S. was excluded from the permitted countries to enter the E.U. due to coronavirus developments. This raised Euro across the board on the hopes that tourism will aid in the fast E.U. economic recovery.

China was also excluded from the “safe list” of the European Union; however, if the Chinese government would offer a reciprocal travel deal for E.U. citizens, then the E.U. will add China to its “safe list.” E.U. has said that the safe list will be reviewed every two weeks and will be adjusted according to the coronavirus developments in each country.

Furthermore, Germany’s finance minister and lawmakers said on Monday that the European Central Bank (ECB) had met the principle of proportionality with its stimulus package that ended the legal conflict threatening to undermine central bank policy. The German Constitutional Court last month gave ECB 3 months to justify bond purchases under its stimulus plan –PSPP or lose German central bank as a participant. This raised Euro in the financial market and pushed EUR/USD pair higher on Monday.

On the data front, The German Prelim CPI for June surged to 0.6% from the expected 0.3% and supported Euro. At 12:00 GMT, the Spanish Flash CPI for the year was dropped by 0.3% against the expected drop by 0.9% and supported the single currency Euro.

The better than expected CPI data from Germany and Spain gave strength to Euro, which added in the gains of EUR/USD pair on Monday.

On the other hand, from the American side, the Pending Home Sales for May increased to 44.3% against 18.9%, which gave strength to the U.S. dollar that exerted downward pressure on EUR/USD at 19:00 GMT.

The U.S. Dollar was also intense because of its safe-haven status during increased US-China tensions and China-India conflict and rising number of coronavirus cases in the U.S. & many other countries. This dragged the rising EUR/USD and limited the gains of the pair on Monday.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.1241
  • R2 1.1235
  • R1 1.1229

Pivot Point 1.1223

  • S1 1.1217
  • S2 1.1211
  • S3 1.1205

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is holding below a strong resistance level of 1.1245 level, the closing of candles below this level is suggesting chances of selling bias until 1.1218 level. Continuation of selling trend below 1.1218 level can extend selling until 1.1195 level today. Conversely, a bullish breakout of the 1.1245 level can extend buying until 1.1289. The RSI and MACD are still in a bearish zone, while the 50 EMA also suggests selling bias. Therefore, we should look for selling trades below 1.1223levels.  

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.22980 after placing a high of 1.23893 and a low of 1.22513. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained bearish throughout the day. The Pound was already weak against the U.S. dollar, and the decline in Pound gained speed after the risk-off market sentiment gained traction and made the U.S. dollar stronger on Monday in the late trading session.

On Monday, face-to-face negotiations on the post-Brexit trade deal between the E.U. & U.K. began after both parties pledged to intensify talks. It would be the first time the U.K.’s chief negotiator David Frost will meet in person with his E.U. counterpart Michel Barnier since the talks began in March. Negotiations were continued through the pandemic but virtually not in person due to coronavirus pandemic.

Boris Johnson has said that a deal could be reached this month with new momentum. PM Johnson met E.U. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in a video conference this month and exclaimed that there were very good chances of getting a trade deal by Dec. The traders were cautious ahead of talks as to how they would go; so, British Pound came under pressure on Monday and dragged GBP/USD pair with itself.

Furthermore, Boris Johnson promised “an active approach to economy” while speaking at a school construction site. His comments came ahead of the launch of a task force to speed up the delivery of infrastructure projects. PM Boris Johnson said that “the cash is there” for long-term investment to help the U.K. recover from the coronavirus crisis and its impact on the economy. He announced that $1.23 B would be delivered to build the first 50 projects, including schools. The U.K. economy was contracted by 20.4% in April, the largest monthly fall on record due to the coronavirus crisis.

On the data front, The M4 Money Supply in May was released at 13:30 GMT, from the United Kingdom, which increased to 2.0% from the forecasted 1.6% and supported British Pound. The Mortgage Approvals from the U.K. in May were decreased to 9K against the forecasted 25K and weighed on British Pound. At 13:32 GMT, the Net Lending to Individuals for May decreased to -3.4B from the -4.0B and supported British Pound.

On the other hand, the Pending Home Sales from the United States for May came in as 44.3% against the expected 18.9%and supported the U.S. dollar. Better than expected data from the U.S. gave strength to the U.S. dollar, which added in the downward trend of GBP/USD on Monday.

The U.S. dollar was strong across the board due to its safe-haven status that was high due to the increased geopolitical tensions and intensified numbers of coronavirus cases around the world. Strong U.S. dollar weighed on GBP/USD pair on Monday.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.2381
  • R2 1.2367
  • R1 1.2354

Pivot Point 1.234

  • S1 1.2327
  • S2 1.2313
  • S3 1.23

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading with a bearish bias, primarily upon the release of worse than expected GDP figures. The cable is trading at 1.2275 level, and it’s finding immediate support at 1.2258 level. Closing of candles below 1.2258 level can open further room for selling until 1.2175 level while the resistance continues to hold at 1.2400 level. On the 4 hour chart, the GBP/USD has also formed a downward channel, which is extend selling bias, along with the 50 EMA, MACD, and RSI as all of the technical indicators are in support of selling. Let’s consider taking sell trades below 1.2345 level today.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 107.570 after placing a high of 107.882 and a low of 106.979. Overall the movement of USD/JPY remained bullish throughout the day. The USD/JPY extended its gains and raised for the 4th consecutive day on Monday on the back of improving risk sentiment that made it difficult for safe-haven Japanese Yen to find demand.

On Monday, China said that it would impose visa restrictions on certain United States individuals in response to the same move by Washington on Chinese officials over the Hong Kong issue. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Zhao Lijian said that the visa restrictions would be imposed on confident Americans with egregious conduct relating to Hong Kong.

He added that national security law for Hong Kong was purely China’s internal affairs, and foreign countries had no right to interfere. He said that attempts from Washington to destruct China’s legislation for safeguarding national security in Hong Kong would never succeed. This increased the risk sentiment, and hence, the USD/JPY pair gained.

On the data front, the Retail Sales for the year from Japan was released at 4:50 GMT, which dropped by 12.3% against the forecasted decline by 11.6% and weighed on Japanese Yen that raised USD/JPY across the board. At 19:00 GMT, the Pending Home Sales from the United States on Monday for May increased to 44.3% against the forecasted 18.9% and supported the U.S. dollar, which helped USD/JPY to gain traction in the market. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index, which dropped to a daily low of 96.11, gained traction and reached 97.50 and helped the USD/JPY pair to surge further.

Daily Support and Resistance    

  • R3 107.39
  • R2 107.31
  • R1 107.27

Pivot Point 107.19

  • S1 107.14
  • S2 107.07
  • S3 107.02

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

Technically, the USD/JPY pair is trading with a bullish bias of around 107.660. On the three hourly charts, the USD/JPY is gaining bullish support by the regression channel. The upward channel has the potential to support the USD/JPY pair around 107.395 level. Closing of candles above this level can drive buying until 107.950, while below 107.390, the USD/JPY may drop until 106.835 level. The 50 EMA is supporting bullish bias; therefore, we should look for buying over 107.350 today. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

EUR/USD Bullish Bias Continues – 50 EMA Supports Buying Trade!

Entry Price – Buy 1.12575

Entry Price – Buy 1.12575

The EUR/USD currency pair extended its early-day gains and rose further to 1.12607 level, mainly due to the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness possibly triggered by the encouraging news related to coronavirus vaccine initially provided support to the U.S. stock futures. On the other hand, the rising number of coronavirus cases weighed on the European equities, which undermined the shared currency and became one of the key factors that kept a lid on any additional gains in the pair. 

However, the nervous mood in the European stock futures could be associated with the dovish comments made by the European Central Bank policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau on Sunday, which could further undermine the shared currency and push the currency pair lower. However, the politician was saying that the monetary policy needed to remain loose until the central bank’s inflation target of 2% was clearly in sight. 

It is worth mentioning that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Chief Economist Gita Gopinath said during the interview with Der Spiegel on Monday that the substantial part of the stimulus package must consist of grants rather than loans. As well as, she also said, “In case of more attribution to loans then it will not promote economic recovery”, this statement exerted some downside pressure on the shared currency.

On the positive side, the European Union is expected to welcome travelers from more than a dozen countries not overwhelmed by the coronavirus, unlike the United States, Russia, and dozens of other countries. As of now, the traders seemed failed to cheer this fresh optimism as the European Union was thinking to stop most travelers from the United States, Russia, and dozens of other countries which are considered as too risky because they have not controlled the coronavirus outbreak yet. 

Apart from this, the reason for the risk-off market sentiment could be associated with the fresh report of coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak, which suggested the pandemic has already crossed approximately half a million lives. Whereas Texas-registered consecutive seven days of above 5,000 cases by the weekend, whereas California’s State Health Department said claims rose by 4,810 to 211,243 total as of June 27. The figures from Los Angeles County rose by near-record of 2,542 to a total of 97,894 by Sunday.

Despite the intensifying fears of coronavirus second wave and geopolitical concerns, the broad-based U.S. dollar failed to maintain its early-day gains and dropped at least for now as the investor’s sentiment swings between hopes for global economic recovery and fears that a fresh wave of coronavirus cases could undermine the recovery. However, the losses in the U.S. dollar kept the currency pair higher. Whereas, the U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies fell 0.11% to 97.293 by 12:50 AM ET (5:50 AM GMT).

The EUR/USD is trading in a tight range of 1.1243 – 1.1193, limiting the price action for now. On the lower side, the EUR/USD pair can drop towards 1.1145 level upon the bearish breakout of 1.1193 level, while the bullish breakout of 1.1243 level will allow us to go long. Simultaneously, the RSI and MACD are still in a bearish zone, while the 50 EMA also suggests selling bias. Therefore, we should look for selling trades below 1.1250 levels.  

Entry Price – Buy 1.12575

Stop Loss – 1.12175

Take Profit – 1.12975

Risk to Reward – 1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$400/ +$400

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, June 29 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – NFP Week Begins! 

On the news front, the focus will be on the BOE Gov Bailey speak and Pending home sales from the U.S., but overall, the techniques are to play a major role today.

On the news front, the focus will be on the BOE Gov Bailey speak and Pending home sales from the U.S., but overall, the techniques are to play a major role today.

On the news front, the focus will be on the BOE Gov Bailey speak and Pending home sales from the U.S., but overall, the techniques are to play a major role today.

Economic Events to Watch Today 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.12179 after placing a high of 1.12392 and a low of 1.11951. Overall the movement of the EUR/USD pair remained flat but slightly bullish throughout the day. The EUR/USD pair moved in a tight consolidated range above 1.200 level after retreating from 1.1345 high earlier this week. The reason behind the congested move of EUR/USD pair on Friday was due to decreased risk sentiment amid a rising number of coronavirus cases.

Markers fear that the second round of restrictions would impose throughout the world to stop the virus threat, which has raised bars that the hopes of quick economic recovery were too early. The crushed risk appetite has made the investors rush into a safe-haven currency like the U.S. dollar, and in this regard, the EUR/USD pair dropped from its higher points this week.

On the flip side, the Core PCE Price Index from the United States for May surged to 0.1% from the expected 0.0% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Personal Spending in May from the U.S. also dropped to 8.2% from the expected 8.9% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. Personal Income from the U.S. for May came in as -4.2% against the expected-6.0% and supported the U.S. dollar. 

The Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment was dropped in June to 78.1 from the expected 79.1 and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The Revised UoM Inflation Expectations for June remained flat at 3.0%. The EUR/USD pair moved in the consolidation phase and remained almost flat throughout the day due to the mixed data from both sides, the United States and whole bloc.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.1241
  • R2 1.1235
  • R1 1.1229

Pivot Point 1.1223

  • S1 1.1217
  • S2 1.1211
  • S3 1.1205

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is trading in a tight range of 1.1243 – 1.1193 level, which limits the price action for now. On the lower side, the EUR/USD pair can drop towards 1.1145 level upon the bearish breakout of 1.1193 level, while the bullish breakout of 1.1243 level will allow us to go long. Simultaneously, the RSI and MACD are still in a bearish zone, while the 50 EMA also suggests selling bias. Therefore, we should look for selling trades below 1.1250 levels.  

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.23353 after placing a high of 1.24369 and a low of 1.23142. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained bearish throughout the day. The GBP/USD pair fell sharply towards the four-week lowest level of 1.2314 on Friday amid decreased risk sentiment and broad-based U.S. dollar strength. The pair GBP/USD dropped more than a hundred pips for the day as the greenback showed strength and EU-UK tensions.

The safe-haven U.S. dollar picked up its demand after the quick slide in U.S. equity prices. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the value of the U.S. dollar against the basket of six currencies, rose to 97.68 level, the highest in almost a week. The 10 Year Treasury yield fell to 0.645%, the lowest in 4 weeks.

The U.S. dollar was up on Friday amid the increased coronavirus cases from the U.S. & across the globe. The Center for Disease Control (CDC) said that the actual number of infected cases was ten times the reported cases, and despite this, U.S. President Donald Trump insisted that the U.S. economy will not shut down again.

On the data front, at 17:30 GMT, the Personal Spending for May from the U.S. decreased to 8.2% from the expected 8.9% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. However, the Personal Income from the U.S. for May came in as -4.2% against the expected-6.2% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment at 19:00 GMT, came in s 78.1 against the expected 79.1 and weighed on the U.S. dollar.

At Brexit front, Prime Minister Boris Johnson told his Polish counterpart, Mateusz Morawiecki, that Britain will be ready to quit its transitional arrangements with the European Union on “Australia Terms” if no deal was secured. Australia and the E.U. have no comprehensive trade agreement, and much of the EU-Australia trade follow the default World Trade Organization rules, although specific agreements for certain goods are followed.

Britain left the E.U. on January 31 and remained in the transition period during which it would follow the European single market rules and custom union. The transition period will expire on December 31, which has to pressure to secure a free trade deal. Both sides are still far apart to secure a deal because of differences, a new round of intensified talks will start next week. PM Johnson has said that the U.K. would negotiate constructively but equally would be ready to leave the transition period on Australia terms if a no-Brexit deal could be reached at the end of it.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.2381
  • R2 1.2367
  • R1 1.2354

Pivot Point 1.234

  • S1 1.2327
  • S2 1.2313
  • S3 1.23

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD extends trading with bearish momentum at 1.2356 level, disrupting the 1.2404 support level. This mark is presently serving as resistance and can point the GBP/USD prices lower until 1.2320 level. On the downside, the Cable may find support around 1.2320 and 1.2286 levels. Recognizing the fresh bearish crossover on the MACD and bearish bias extended by the RSI, the pair can show us a bearish trend. The 50 EMA is also proposing selling sentiment; hence, we should consider taking selling trades below 1.1223 level today.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 107.192 after placing a high of 107.356 and a low of 106.796. Overall the movement of the USD/JPY pair remained flat but slightly bullish throughout the day.

On the last trading day of the week, the pair USD/JPY came under fresh selling pressure but managed to pull back and ended its day with a slight bearish candle. The downtick for the USD/JPY pair could be solely attributed to the reviving safe-haven demand for Japanese Yen.

The possibility of a renewed lockdown measure to control the virus spread as the infected cases were increasing day by day, made the investors cautious, and dampened the chance of sharp V-shaped global economic recovery.

The U.S. dollar also remained in a confined range after posting gains for the previous two days. The greenback remained defensive against the Japanese counterpart after the release of mixed U.S. macroeconomic data on Friday. The Core PCE Price Index for May surged to 0.1% against the expected0.0% and supported the U.S. dollar. At 17:30 GMT, Personal Spending for May decreased to 8.2% against 8.9% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The Personal Income for May dropped by 4.2% against the expected drop of 6.0% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment was lowered to 78.1 from the79.1 anticipated and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The Revised UoM Inflation Expectations remained flat at 3.0%.

From Japan, at 4:30 GMT, the Tokyo Core CPI for the year remained flat at 0.2% on Friday. The risk-off market sentiment was due to the stock market downfall with S&P 500 down 2.4%, and Dow Jones was also down by 2.8%. The decoupling of Yen and U.S. dollars may last longer as the markets had an imminent risk of profit-taking in the month of June, which will also be the end for the quarter. Further profit-taking could boost the safe-haven Japanese Yen, which will weigh on the USD/JPY pair.

Daily Support and Resistance    

  • R3 107.39
  • R2 107.31
  • R1 107.27

Pivot Point 107.19

  • S1 107.14
  • S2 107.07
  • S3 107.02

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is consolidating with bullish sentiment at 107.191 marks, but the closing of recent candles underneath 107.220 marks can encourage selling or retracement. Although the pair has violated the downward trendline resistance at 107 marks and technically, it should dispense selling the USD/JPY pair below 107.225. But we also require to recognize the double top resistance mark of 107.250. I will be glad to take a sell-trade if the USDJPY holds below 107.250 level to target 106.450 today. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

EUR/JPY Breaks Below Descending Triangle – Brace for Selling! 

The EUR/JPY failed to extend its early-day bearish moves and rose well above 119.820 support levels, mainly due to bullish correction. It seems like a sharp rise in the coronavirus cases in Europe and on-going tensions between the EU-US undermined the shared currency and kept a lid on any additional gains in the pair, at least for now. Currently, the EUR/JPY trading at 120, holding right below an immediate resistance level of 120.193. However, the hopes of the European Union (E.U.) Recovery Fund deal kept the positive tone around EUR/JPY pair high.

The EUR/JPY failed to extend its early-day bearish moves and rose well above 119.820 support levels, mainly due to bullish correction. It seems like a sharp rise in the coronavirus cases in Europe and on-going tensions between the EU-US undermined the shared currency and kept a lid on any additional gains in the pair, at least for now. Currently, the EUR/JPY trading at 120, holding right below an immediate resistance level of 120.193. However, the hopes of the European Union (E.U.) Recovery Fund deal kept the positive tone around EUR/JPY pair high.

The EUR/JPY failed to extend its early-day bearish moves and rose well above 119.820 support levels, mainly due to bullish correction. It seems like a sharp rise in the coronavirus cases in Europe and on-going tensions between the EU-US undermined the shared currency and kept a lid on any additional gains in the pair, at least for now. Currently, the EUR/JPY trading at 120, holding right below an immediate resistance level of 120.193. However, the hopes of the European Union (E.U.) Recovery Fund deal kept the positive tone around EUR/JPY pair high.

The mounting concerns about the second wave of coronavirus outbreak sent investors into the safe-haven assets. The warning of the World Health Organization that indicated the second wave of the virus was picking up the pace once again, with an average of 20,000 new cases per day and 700 daily deaths in the Old Continent. In the meantime, the U.K. reported 149 further coronavirus-related deaths in the past 24 hours, as U.K. health experts warned about an imminent second wave of the virus due to the government early- lifting of lockdown measures.

Moving on, the directionless sentiment surrounding the currency pair could be long-term as the US-EU trade war continues to increase and could see the E.U. and Washington move forward with more tariffs through the rest of the year. Besides this, the shared currency Euro gained further support upon the reports from the President of the European Commission that the European Union (E.U.) Recovery Fund that the deal should be agreed before the summer holidays. 

Looking forward, the market participants will keep their eyes on the broader market sentiment on Friday. The European Central Bank President Lagarde will be under the close eye during her speech at 07:00 GMT, as she will likely reiterate willingness to provide additional stimulus and stress the requirement for more work on the fiscal front.


Despite positive fundamentals, the reason for opening a sell trade was to capture a quick sell in the EUR/JPY. As you can see on the hourly timeframe, the EUR/JPY has closed shooting star right below downward trendline and 50 periods EMA which suggests bearish sentiment amount investors. Thus, we entered a sell position below 119.934 to target 119.534 today. 

Entry Price – Sell 119.934  

Stop Loss – 120.334    

Take Profit – 119.534

Risk to Reward – 1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$374/ +$374

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$37.4/ +$37.4

Categories
Forex Signals

USD/JPY Bearish Engulfing & 50 EMA Crossover Signals Sell – Who’s Up? 

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 107.195 after placing a high of 107.450 and a low of 106.829. Overall the movement of the USD/JPY pair remained bullish throughout the day. The USD/JPY jumped to fresh weekly high around 107.45 regions on the back of increased demand for the US dollar despite the risk-off market sentiment.

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 107.195 after placing a high of 107.450 and a low of 106.829. Overall the movement of the USD/JPY pair remained bullish throughout the day. The USD/JPY jumped to fresh weekly high around 107.45 regions on the back of increased demand for the US dollar despite the risk-off market sentiment.

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 107.195 after placing a high of 107.450 and a low of 106.829. Overall the movement of the USD/JPY pair remained bullish throughout the day. The USD/JPY jumped to fresh weekly high around 107.45 regions on the back of increased demand for the US dollar despite the risk-off market sentiment.

At 9:30 GMT, the All Industries Activity from Japan came in line with the expectations of -6.4% in April. From the American side, the Core Durable Goods Orders for May surged to 4.0% against the 2.1% of expectations and supported the US dollar. The Durable Goods Orders for May also increased to 15.8% against the 10.3% forecast and supported the US dollar. The Final GDP for the second quarter came in line with the expectations of -5.0%.

However, the Unemployment Claims from the US last week exceeded 1.480M from 1.320M of expectations and weighed on the US dollar. The Goods Trade Balance also showed a deficit of 74.3B against the expected deficit of 68.0B and weighed on the US dollar. The Prelim Wholesale Inventories for May decreased to -1.2% from the expected 0.4% and supported the US dollar. However, the quarter’s final GDP Price Index also came in line with the expected expansion of 1.4%.

The mixed data from the United States could not overcome the greenback’s strength on Thursday, which came in after the growing market worries related to surge in the number of coronavirus cases, which could trigger the fresh lockdown measures in the US. The economic recovery in case of renewed lockdown will become slower, and this raised the US dollar due to its status as a global reserve currency.

Meanwhile, the traders were rather unaffected by the selling bias around the equity market in the absence of risk sentiment, which tends to increase the safe-haven Japanese Yen and decrease the currency pair USD/JPY gains. Even the reduced US Treasury bond yields also could not affect the USD/JPY pair’s bullish move on Thursday.

On US-China front, the White House Advisor, Peter Navarro, said on Thursday that if China failed to fulfill the clause of phase-one deal related to increased purchases of American Lobsters, then the US will impose new reciprocal tariffs on China seafood industry. China committed to purchasing $150M worth of American Lobsters in the phase-one trade deal.


As we can see on the 4-hour timeframe, the USD/JPY has crossed below 50 periods EMA at 107.050 level, which was supposed to work as resistance later. While the recent candles were closing below a strong resistance area of 107.322, therefore, we decided to take a sell trade to target 106.654. Here’s an update on the trade plan. 

Entry Price – Sell 107.054    

Stop Loss – 107.454

Take Profit – 106.654    

Risk to Reward – 1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400 / +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, June 26 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Potential Breakouts Everywhere!

The fundamental side is again muted with a limited number of economic events that don’t have the potential to drive major movement in the market today. Therefore, the focus will remain on the technical side of the market.

The fundamental side is again muted with a limited number of economic events that don’t have the potential to drive major movement in the market today. Therefore, the focus will remain on the technical side of the market.

The fundamental side is again muted with a limited number of economic events that don’t have the potential to drive major movement in the market today. Therefore, the focus will remain on the technical side of the market.

Economic Events to Watch Today 

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.12177 after placing a high of 1.12595 and a low of 1.11902. The EUR/USD pair posted losses on Thursday for the second consecutive day on the back of U.S. dollar strength amid risk-averse market sentiment. The worries over an increase in the number of coronavirus cases across the globe raised fears in the market. The number of death tolls in the U.S. topped to 120 thousand, and the number of rising cases reached 2.4M.

The S&P 500 declined to a 2-week lowest by 2.55% on Thursday. The U.S. Dollar Index rallied higher on the day but remained within a broader range near the starting point of the month. On the data front, at 11:00 GMT, the German GfK Consumer Climate for June supported Euro when it came in as -9.6 against the forecasted -11.7.

On Thursday, ECB released its last monetary policy meeting minutes, which revealed that ECB aimed to neutralize a German court ruling and to justify its bond purchasing scheme. ECB will also release confidential documents to curb the threat.

In May, Germany’s constitutional court threatened to block the central bank from participating in the stimulus plan unless ECB could prove that its government debt purchases exceeded the legal limits. German court provided a time period of 3 months to ECB to prove that. The critics argued that the bond purchases exceeded the ECB’s mandate, and the leading judge of the court said that ECB should not consider itself the ‘master of the universe.’

In monetary policy minutes, the ECB also underlined the delicate economic situation with millions of jobs at risk and inflation at weak levels. The forecast for Eurozone’s deep recession was also mentioned while stressing the efficiency of stimulus measures in helping to stimulate economic growth.

In short, the minutes send two messages: the ECB was ready to do more if needed, and the ECB efforts to end the conflicts with the German Constitutional court. Whereas, from the U.S., the Core durable goods orders for May increased by 4.0% against the forecasted 2.1% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Durable goods orders for May also increased by 15.8% against the expected 10.3% and supported the U.S. dollar, which weighed on EUR/USD pair on Thursday.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.1383
  • R2 1.1355
  • R1 1.1304

Pivot Point 1.1276

  • S1 1.1225
  • S2 1.1197
  • S3 1.1147

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is trading in a narrow range of 1.1243 – 1.1193 level, which limits the price action for now. On the lower side, the EUR/USD pair can drop towards 1.1145 level upon the bearish breakout of 1.1193 level, while the bullish breakout of 1.1243 level will allow us to go long. Simultaneously, the RSI and MACD are still in a bearish zone, while the 50 EMA also suggests selling bias. Therefore, we should look for selling trades below 1.1250 levels.  

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.24184 after placing a high of 1.24642 and a low of 1.23888. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair was flat throughout the day. The GBP/USD pair attempted to recover amid the hopes of Brexit breakthrough as the next round of face-to-face talks came. However, the fresh Brexit optimism was not expected to offset the disappointing U.S. coronavirus data giving strength to the greenback.

Britain’s chief negotiator David Frost warned Michel Barnier to ‘get real’ ahead of the face-to-face meeting in months. Both men will conduct an intensified round of talks at the Commission headquarters on Monday in a view to strike a breakthrough.

Frost said that he would go to Brussels in good faith to engage with the E.U.’s concerns, and this should be a real negotiation, and for that, E.U.’s unrealistic positions must have to change if they wanted the U.K. to move forward.

He added that U.K. sovereignty over its laws, its courts, and its fishing waters were not up for discussion. He also said that the U.K. did not seek anything that could undermine the E.U.’s single market. This raised the bars that the Brexit deal could be done when the face-to-face meeting will happen, but at the same time, the U.K.’s decision not to show any relaxation towards E.U.’s demands weighed on the positive expectations.

According to the European Social Survey (ESS), a pan-European poll carried out every two years, 56.8% of respondents in the U.K. showed a willingness to remain in Europe while 34.9% said that they would leave the bloc while 8.3% said that they would not vote at all. This survey also exerted pressure on GBP/USD on Thursday.

On the other hand, at the economic data front, the CBI Realized Sales from Great Britain remained flat with the expectations of -37 in June. While from the American side, the core durable goods order gave strength to the U.S. dollar when exceeded the expectations of 2.1% and came in as 4.0% and weighed on GBP/USD. The durable goods orders from the U.S. in May also exceeded 15.8% from the expected 10.3% and supported the U.S. dollar to weigh on GBP/USD pair. However, the Unemployment claims exceeded 1.480M from the expected 1.320M and weighed on the U.S. dollar, which supported the GBP/USD pair. Hence, the GBP/USD remained flat throughout the day.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.2633
  • R2 1.2588
  • R1 1.2504

Pivot Point 1.2459

  • S1 1.2375
  • S2 1.233
  • S3 1.2245

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD extends trading with bearish momentum at 1.2406 level, having disrupted the 1.2460 support level. This mark is presently serving as resistance and can point the GBP/USD prices lower until 1.2380 level. On the downside, the Cable may find support around 1.2380 and 1.2336 levels. Acknowledging the fresh bearish crossover on the MACD and bearish bias extended by the RSI, the pair can show us a bearish trend. The 50 EMA is also proposing selling sentiment; hence, we should consider taking selling trades below 1.2459 level on Friday. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 107.050 after placing a high of 107.069 and a low of 106.382. Overall the movement of USD/JPY remained bullish throughout the day. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Robert Redfield recently said that the number of actual confirmed cases is ten times bigger than reported cases. The Redfield indicated that approximately 92 to 95 % of the U.S. population is still in trouble by the fears of ever-increasing virus figures. There are 37,667 new cases with 692 deaths in America on June 25 as per the latest report, which initially weighs on the risk sentiment and contributed to the yellow-metal gains.

The risk-off market was further bolstered by the latest report that the United States recently announced to impose fresh sanctions on eight entities connected with Iran’s metal industry that supply revenue for the country’s Revolutionary Guard Corps. As per the U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo tweet, “Today, we are sanctioning nine entities for their connections to Iran’s metals sector. Iran’s leaders must stop squandering resources to support proxies abroad while Iranians suffer.” which adds strength to the risk-tone and weighs on the riskier assets.

It’s worth mentioning that the U.S. also imposed sanctions on a Chinese company known as the Global Industrial and Engineering Supply Ltd., for providing graphite — a vital material in Iran’s metal industry — to Tehran in 2019.

Moreover, the reason behind the risk-off market sentiment could also be associated with the report of a huge unconfirmed blast in Tehran and the trade wars between the U.S. and the rest of the major global economies. It should be noted that the police have started to look into an incident that happened over the last few hours in Tehran, where a bright light and loud sound in the eastern portion of Tehran were reported.

Besides the geopolitical tensions, the Federal Reserve recently banned 34 largest banks from share buybacks in the 3rd quarter (Q3). As well as, the Federal Reserve capped dividend payment to the second quarter (Q2) levels for these banks. While the U.S. central bank also released gloomy analyses, due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) economic impact, which exerted some downside press on the risk-tone. 

Daily Support and Resistance    

  • R3 107.99
  • R2 107.54
  • R1 107.28

Pivot Point 106.83

  • S1 106.58
  • S2 106.12
  • S3 105.87

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is consolidating with bullish sentiment at 107.191 marks, but the closing of recent candles underneath 107.220 marks can encourage selling or retracement. Although the pair has violated the downward trendline resistance at 107 mark and technically, it should dispense selling the USD/JPY pair below 107.225. But we also require to recognize the double top resistance mark of 107.250. I will be glad to take a sell-trade if the USDJPY holds below 107.250 level to target 106.450 today. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

Gold’s Choppy Session Continues – Traders Eye on U.S. GDP! 

The safe-haven-metal prices flashed green and drew bids around the $1,766 level, mainly due to the risk-off market sentiment backed by the Virus fears, trade war, and many more, which eventually underpinned the safe-haven demand in the market and contributed to the gold gains. As a result of high safe-haven demand, the broad-based U.S. dollar climbed from the previous session low as Jump in Covid-19 Cases Boosted Safe-Haven Demand, which becomes one of the main thing that kept a lid on any additional profits in the gold prices. At the press time, the yellow metal prices are currently trading at 1,763.20 and consolidating in the range between 1,755.49 and 1,766.12.

The safe-haven-metal prices flashed green and drew bids around the $1,766 level, mainly due to the risk-off market sentiment backed by the Virus fears, trade war, and many more, which eventually underpinned the safe-haven demand in the market and contributed to the gold gains. As a result of high safe-haven demand, the broad-based U.S. dollar climbed from the previous session low as Jump in Covid-19 Cases Boosted Safe-Haven Demand, which becomes one of the main thing that kept a lid on any additional profits in the gold prices. At the press time, the yellow metal prices are currently trading at 1,763.20 and consolidating in the range between 1,755.49 and 1,766.12.

The safe-haven-metal prices flashed green and drew bids around the $1,766 level, mainly due to the risk-off market sentiment backed by the Virus fears, trade war, and many more, which eventually underpinned the safe-haven demand in the market and contributed to the gold gains. As a result of high safe-haven demand, the broad-based U.S. dollar climbed from the previous session low as Jump in Covid-19 Cases Boosted Safe-Haven Demand, which becomes one of the main thing that kept a lid on any additional profits in the gold prices. At the press time, the yellow metal prices are currently trading at 1,763.20 and consolidating in the range between 1,755.49 and 1,766.12.

At the coronavirus front, the on-going increase in the ratio of hospitalized peoples in Texas and California as well as the rising figures of coronavirus cases in Florida fueled the fears of the second wave and considered as a news epicenter of the coronavirus (COVID-19) across the world which eventually put downside pressure on the risk sentiment and provided support to the safe-haven assets. As per the latest report, the U.S. had the most massive single-day total of new COVID-19 cases on Wednesday, with over 36,000 figures.

Moreover, the reason for the risk-off market sentiment could also be attributed to the fresh geopolitical concerns. The Trump administration recently exhabit a willingness to impose new tariffs of $3.1 billion EU/UK goods. As in result, the European Union has criticized U.S. warnings to hit $3.1bn of European products while complaining that this tariff would further harm the E.U. companies, which were already damaged from Covid-19, which eventually added strength to the risk-off market sentiment.

Apart from this, Trump has ordered U.S. Trade Representative to keep check whether China is buying U.S. lobsters under the phase 1 trade deal. As well as, he also warned to impose reciprocal tariffs on China, which also weighed on the risk-tone sentiment. Elsewhere, the US-China trade deal still not showing any progress, which offered an extra burden on the risk-tone.

The risk-off market sentiment was further bolstered by the statement of the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) Director Christopher Wray that China was the most comprehensive threat to the United States, in consideration of the cyber-theft, coronavirus mishandling, etc.

As we all well aware that the coronavirus outbreak hit the global consumption deeper than expected. As in result, the International Monetary Fund IMF (Washington based institute) expected the global economy to shrink by 5.0% in 2020 versus the April month forecast of 3.0%. Whereas, the key organization also showed the need for further policy measures to control the virus.

As in result, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yields drop to 0.674% while stocks in Japan and Australia also flashed losses at the press time. It’s worth mentioning that markets in China and Hong Kong are off today.

At the USD front, the broad-based U.S. dollar extended its overnight gains and rose sharply from the session’s low mainly due to renewed safe-haven demand on fears of the second wave as coronavirus cases continue to mount. Looking forward, the market participant will keep their eyes on the trade/virus updates for near-term direction.

.



    

Daily Support and Resistance

S1 1696.96

S2 1717.81

S3 1730.63

Pivot Point 1738.66

R1 1751.48

R2 1759.51

R3 1780.36

Gold is trading sideways in a tight trading range of 1,765 – 1,758 level, and it’s currently trading at 1,760 level, holding right over a subsequent support level of 1,758. Above this, the precious metal gold can drive the XAU/USD prices towards 1,773 and 1,778 while support extends to endure nearby 1,750 and 1,753. A bearish breakout of 1,758 can help us capture a quick sell trade in gold today. Again it all depends upon the U.S. GDP and Jobless Claims data. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, June 25 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – U.S. GDP Under Spotlight!

As risk aversion emerged in the market, the U.S. dollar became strong, and equity prices in Wall Street started losing as the speed of the U.S. dollar rallied. On the news front, the eyes will be on the U.S. Final GDP, Durable Goods Orders m/m, and Unemployment Claims figures due to come out during the New York Session. Overall the macroeconomic events are expected to be positive, and these may keep the U.S. dollar bullish today while keeping gold bearish.

As risk aversion emerged in the market, the U.S. dollar became strong, and equity prices in Wall Street started losing as the speed of the U.S. dollar rallied. On the news front, the eyes will be on the U.S. Final GDP, Durable Goods Orders m/m, and Unemployment Claims figures due to come out during the New York Session. Overall the macroeconomic events are expected to be positive, and these may keep the U.S. dollar bullish today while keeping gold bearish.

As risk aversion emerged in the market, the U.S. dollar became strong, and equity prices in Wall Street started losing as the speed of the U.S. dollar rallied. On the news front, the eyes will be on the U.S. Final GDP, Durable Goods Orders m/m, and Unemployment Claims figures due to come out during the New York Session. Overall the macroeconomic events are expected to be positive, and these may keep the U.S. dollar bullish today while keeping gold bearish.

Economic Events to Watch Today 

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.12499 after placing a high of 1.13257 and a low of 1.12481. Overall the movement of the EUR/USD pair remained bearish throughout the day. The EUR/USD pair in the risk-off market sentiment moved in a downward trend on Wednesday on the back of strong U.S. dollar and U.S. tariffs on E.U. & U.K.

On late Tuesday, a document from the United States Trade Representative office said that the U.S. was considering an additional list of products from France, Germany, Spain, and the U.K. to be placed with 100% duty. The products included olives, beer, chocolate, coffee, gin, some trucks, and machinery. The enforcement of the new tariffs will potentially take effect from July 26. The move was taken against the long-lasting dispute with E.U. over subsidies to large civil aircraft manufacturers.

In October, WTO ruled that Germany, France, Spain, and the U.K. granted illegal subsidies to plane-maker Airbus and allowed the U.S. to impose $7.5 billion in duties as part of the punishment. Furthermore, in December, WTO also said that the European Union did not end its illegal subsidies, which gave the U.S. further room to impose new tariffs on European products.

This weighed heavily on Euro and dragged the pair EUR/USD towards the negative side. EUR/USD pair was already under pressure due to risk-off market sentiment & U.S. dollar strength. However, the losses were limited as the better than expected macroeconomic data from Europe gave some strength to the Euro. At 13:00 GMT, the German Ifo Business Climate for June exceeded the expectations of 85.0 and came in as 86.2 and supported EUR/USD pair. On the other hand, the Belgian NBB Business Climate was expected as -25.1, which came in June as -22.9 and supported Euro.

As risk aversion emerged in the market, the U.S. dollar became strong, and equity prices in Wall Street started losing as the speed of the U.S. dollar rallied. The DXY was up 0.6 % and rose above 97.10 level on Wednesday. Dow Jones lost 2.40%, and Nasdaq lost 2.05%, the lower return in Wall Street Journal stocks was followed by the latest COVID-19 reports from the several U.S. States. The strength of the U.S. dollar remained a key driver for EUR/USD pair on Wednesday.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.1383
  • R2 1.1355
  • R1 1.1304

Pivot Point 1.1276

  • S1 1.1225
  • S2 1.1197
  • S3 1.1147

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD pair has violated the upward trendline support level of 1.1280, and now it’s finding support around 1.1240 level. The violation of the 1.1240 level can also extend sell-off until 1.1195. The MACD and RSI are holding in a selling zone, which is supporting the selling bias. On the lower side, recently, the formation of a bearish engulfing candle is also suggesting a strong selling bias. Today, we should look for taking a selling position below 1.1240 level to target 1.1195 level, but don’t forget to monitor the U.S. GDP, and Jobless claims data as these are the main ones to impact the market.   

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.24199 after placing a high of 1.25425 and a low of 1.24141. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained bearish throughout the day. The risk perceived, GBP/USD currency pair came under heavy pressure after the risk appetite from market faded h gave strength to the U.S. dollar. The GBP was one of the worst-performing currencies on Wednesday after AUD & NZD. Along with decreased risk appetite, Brexit uncertainties also weighed on British Pound. Britain’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson also unveiled new easing measures across England from July 4. This indicted the reopening of pubs and restaurants and less social distancing.

On Brexit front, the E.U. chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, said that he was neither optimistic nor pessimistic about achieving a deal and also described himself as determined to break the deadlock. He also believed that the deal was still possible.

He showed concerns and said that a failure to reach a deal with the European Union would only damage the U.K.’s economy. He added that it was in particular interest of Britain to reach an agreement and avoid no-deal Brexit. He also added that the E.U. was willing to find a margin of flexibility on the sticking point of Britain’s fishing water, but he did not include the level playing field in this statement.

However, talks between E.U. & U.K. will start in the coming week, and the U.K. was an inch closer to the 1st July deadline for extending the transition period, which will end on December 31. On the data front, there was no macroeconomic data to be released from the U.K. so, the pair showed technical movement and followed the U.S. dollar on Wednesday. 

At 18:00 GMT, the House Price Index for April from the United States came in as 0.2% against the expected 0.3% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. But GBP/USD pair failed to give attention to the macroeconomic data from the U.S. and continued falling on the back of a key technical level, which was rejected.day.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.2633
  • R2 1.2588
  • R1 1.2504

Pivot Point 1.2459

  • S1 1.2375
  • S2 1.233
  • S3 1.2245

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The Cable continues to trade with bearish momentum to trade at 1.2406 level, having violated the 1.2460 support level. This level is now working as resistance and can lead the GBP/USD prices until 1.2460 level. On the downside, the GBP/USD may gain support at 1.2380 level and 1.2336 level. Considering the recent bullish crossover on the MACD and bearish bias extended by the RSI, the pair is confusing traders about which way to move. The 50 periods EMA is still suggesting selling bias; therefore, we should consider taking selling trades below 1.2459 level today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 107.050 after placing a high of 107.069 and a low of 106.382. Overall the movement of USD/JPY remained bullish throughout the day. The USD/JPY pair extended the rebound on Wednesday, which was started on Tuesday from the lowest level in seven weeks, near the 106.00 level. The surge in USD/JPY prices was due to the U.S. dollar’s strength across the board.

The Japanese Yen failed to benefit from the declines in the Wall Street Journal and lower U.S. yields. The Dow Jones fell almost 3% on the day, and the S&P 500 fell 2.70%. The U.S. Treasury yield of 10 Years fell to 0.679%. Usually, the risk-off market sentiment tends to give strength to Japanese Yen on Wednesday, the yen fell, and the U.S. dollar gained traction on the back of increasing concerns related to coronavirus contagion.

The President of Chicago Fed, Charles Evans, said on Wednesday that no one at the central bank was thinking about negative interest rates and if Fed moved there it would be a big surprise. He said that there was more space for monetary stimulus and expected the economy to rebound in the other half of the year.

On the other hand, The Bank of Japan offered 8.28 trillion yen (US$ 77.74billiom) in loans to financial organizations under a new lending program. The new fund was aimed at channeling funds to cash strapped firms hit by the coronavirus pandemic. BOJ also eased monetary policy in March & April by pledging to buy more assets, gobble up unlimited amounts of government’s debt and create lending facilities to channel more money to firms.

After BOJ decided to pay 0.1 % interest to financial institutions for taking up loans from the central bank, the number of participants surged to 180 from only 18 in March. The central bank announced that the three-month loans would be extended from Thursday through December 25. On the data front, the Services Producer Price Index (SPPI) from Japan for May came in line with the expectation. From the American side, the House Price Index for April came in as 0.2% against 0.3% expected and weighed on USD.

Daily Support and Resistance    

  • R3 107.99
  • R2 107.54
  • R1 107.28

Pivot Point 106.83

  • S1 106.58
  • S2 106.12
  • S3 105.87

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading with a bullish bias at 107.191 level, but the closing of recent candles below 107.220 level can drive selling or correction un the market. Although the pair has violated the downward trendline resistance at 107 level and technically, it should show us more buying in the USD/JPY pair. But we also need to consider the double top resistance level of 107.250. I will be happy to take a buy-trade if the USDJPY manages to break above 107.250 level to target 107.650 today. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

USD/CAD Crossover 50 EMA – Can Upward Trendline Drive More Buying? 

The USD/CAD currency pair extended its previous day winning streak and rose to 1.3580 level, mainly due to the declines in the crude oil prices, which tend to undermine the commodity-linked currency the loonie and contributed to the pair’s modest gains. The broad-based U.S. dollar strength initiated by the fresh pickup in the U.S. Treasury bond yields turned out to be one of the key factors that kept currency pair higher, at least for now. Currently, the USD/CAD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3562 and consolidating in the range between 1.3525 and 1.3583.

The USD/CAD currency pair extended its previous day winning streak and rose to 1.3580 level, mainly due to the declines in the crude oil prices, which tend to undermine the commodity-linked currency the loonie and contributed to the pair’s modest gains. The broad-based U.S. dollar strength initiated by the fresh pickup in the U.S. Treasury bond yields turned out to be one of the key factors that kept currency pair higher, at least for now. Currently, the USD/CAD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3562 and consolidating in the range between 1.3525 and 1.3583.

The USD/CAD currency pair extended its previous day winning streak and rose to 1.3580 level, mainly due to the declines in the crude oil prices, which tend to undermine the commodity-linked currency the loonie and contributed to the pair’s modest gains. The broad-based U.S. dollar strength initiated by the fresh pickup in the U.S. Treasury bond yields turned out to be one of the key factors that kept currency pair higher, at least for now. Currently, the USD/CAD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3562 and consolidating in the range between 1.3525 and 1.3583.

Moreover, the gain in the currency pair was further bolstered by the downbeat comments from the BOC Governor Macklem that they expect more coronavirus outbreaks as the economy reopens, which initially weighed on the Canadian dollar but the comments burden was short-lived.

The broad-based U.S. dollar stopped its early-day losses and mainly took fresh bids due to a rise in the U.S. Treasury bond yields. As well as, the remaining uncertainty in the market backed by trade and virus worries also lend some support to the U.S. dollar. Whereas the U.S. 10-year Treasury yields remained positive, around 0.72% and stocks in Asia flashed mixed signals. However, the U.S. dollar’s fresh gains turned out to be one of the key factors that kept the currency pair higher. The dollar index, which measures the greenback performance versus a basket of six other currencies, was up 0.15% at 96.798. 

At the Crude oil front, the WTI crude oil prices failed to stop its previous day losing streak and dropped below $40.00 level on the day mainly due to the bearish U.S. inventory report released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) which eventually added worries about oversupply and contributed to the oil declines. The selling bias in the oil prices ultimately undermined the commodity-linked currency the loonie and contributed to the pair’s modest gains.

The traders will keep their focus on the USD price dynamics and the broader risk sentiment. This makes it reasonable to wait for some strong follow-through strength before confirming that the USD/CAD pair might have bottomed out.


Technically, the USD/CAD is supported around 1.3489 level, and closing of candles above this level is suggesting odds of bullish trend continuation. Recently, the USD/CAD has also crossover over the 50 EMA from the lower side to up, making it a bullish crossover. The bullish crossover demonstrates that traders are trading and supported the bullish bias, and we seem to have a chance to capture a quick buying position in the USD/CAD pair. Here’s a quick trade signal. 

Entry Price – Buy 1.35759    

Stop Loss – 1.35359

Take Profit – 1.36159    

Risk to Reward – 1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400 / +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$400/ +$40

Categories
Forex Signals

EUR/GBP Fails to Break Triple Bottom Support – Is Our Signal Still Safe?

The EUR/GBP pair is trading at 0.9028 level, holding above the triple bottom support area of 0.9020 level. Overall, the EUR/GBP is trading with a bullish bias, both from fundamental and technical perspective. For instance, the headline IFO Business Climate Index was improving to 85.0 against 79.5 previously. While, the Current Assessment sub-index was arriving at 84.0 this month, while the IFO Expectations Index – indicating firms’ projections for the next six months – is likely to come out at 87.0 in the reported month vs. 80.1 last.

The EUR/GBP pair is trading at 0.9028 level, holding above the triple bottom support area of 0.9020 level. Overall, the EUR/GBP is trading with a bullish bias, both from fundamental and technical perspective. For instance, the headline IFO Business Climate Index was improving to 85.0 against 79.5 previously. While, the Current Assessment sub-index was arriving at 84.0 this month, while the IFO Expectations Index – indicating firms’ projections for the next six months – is likely to come out at 87.0 in the reported month vs. 80.1 last.

The EUR/GBP pair is trading at 0.9028 level, holding above the triple bottom support area of 0.9020 level. Overall, the EUR/GBP is trading with a bullish bias, both from fundamental and technical perspective. For instance, the headline IFO Business Climate Index was improving to 85.0 against 79.5 previously. While, the Current Assessment sub-index was arriving at 84.0 this month, while the IFO Expectations Index – indicating firms’ projections for the next six months – is likely to come out at 87.0 in the reported month vs. 80.1 last.

Looking ahead, the big surge in the data will likely bolster market expectations toward faster recovery in the Eurozone’s largest economy, which may provide support to the shared currency. As we know, the economic activity has already recovered slightly since the March crash. As the Manufacturing and service sector activity improved in Germany in June, it showed in the preliminary PMIs released on Tuesday. 

One of the reasons behind a slight bearish bias today is that coronavirus remains a risk, said by the German Health Minister Jens Spahn, while speaking to broadcaster ARD on Wednesday, which eventually undermined the shared currency and contributed to the pair declines. As per the Jens Spahn, “we see that if we make it too easy for this virus, it spreads very, very quickly again even all over the world, we do not only see the relaxing attitude in Guetersloh – we’ve also seen it in Goettingen, in Leer, in Bremen and at churches and family celebrations.”

While the number of confirmed coronavirus cases increased to 191,449 with a total of 8,914 deaths so far, the cases rose by 587 in Germany on Wednesday against Tuesday’s +503, and the death toll rose by 19 as per the German disease and epidemic control center, Robert Koch Institute (RKI), on Wednesday.

The EUR/GBP pair early-day gains could be associated with the report that President Emanuel Macron and Dutch Prime Minister (PM) Mark Rutte made some progress on the talks over the European Union budget and recovery fund in the Netherlands which initially underpin the shared currency and provided support to the major during the early Asian session on the day.

Looking forward, the trader will keep their eyes on the German IFO Business Climate and pandemic updates for fresh impetus. As well as, Fed speech could offer additional directions for the pair.


On the technical side, the EUR/GBP is gaining support above 0.9020, and the closing of candles above this level can drive buying in the pair. Lagging indicators like the 50 periods EMA also suggests the bullish bias and extend support at 0.9007. However, the lagging indicator 50 periods EMA is suggestings odds of a bullish bias. Here’s a quick trade plan for the day. 

Entry Price – Buy 1.12914    

Stop Loss – 1.12514    

Take Profit – 1.13314

Risk to Reward – 1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400 / +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$400/ +$40

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, June 24 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Focus on Technical Side!

On the news front, the market will be focusing on the German Business Climate figures along with Crude Oil Inventories. Overall the impact of these events is expected to be muted; therefore, our focus should be on the technical side of the market.

On the news front, the market will be focusing on the German Business Climate figures along with Crude Oil Inventories. Overall the impact of these events is expected to be muted; therefore, our focus should be on the technical side of the market.

On the news front, the market will be focusing on the German Business Climate figures along with Crude Oil Inventories. Overall the impact of these events is expected to be muted; therefore, our focus should be on the technical side of the market.

Economic Events to Watch Today 

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.13085 after placing a high of 1.13484 and a low of 1.12329. Overall the movement of the EUR/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. On Tuesday, the EUR/USD currency pair spiked above 1.13400 level, highest since June 16. The pair was up with 155 pips from the previous day’s low on the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the value of the U.S. dollar against the basket of six currencies, lost the gains of the previous five days in only two days and was down to 96.39 level, the lowest since June 11.

The U.S. dollar’s weakness came in after a new stimulus package from U.S. congress was announced by the U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin on Tuesday. Mnuchin also said that despite the rising number of coronavirus cases in some states of America, renewed lockdown would not be imposed.

Another reason behind the EUR/USD pair’s uptick was better than expected and robust macroeconomic data from the Eurozone about PMI.

 At 12:15 GMT, the French Flash Services PMI for June exceeded the expectations of 44.9 and came in as 50.3 and supported Euro. The French flash manufacturing PMI for June also surged to 52.1 against the expected 46.1 and supported Euro on Tuesday. At 12:30 GMT, the German Flash Manufacturing PMI increased to 44.6 from the forecasted 41.5 in June. The German Flash Services PMI exceeded expectations of 41.7 for June and came in as 45.8 and supported Euro.

At 13:00 GMT, the Flash Manufacturing PMI for the whole Eurozone came in better than expected as 46.9 against 43.8. The Flash Services PMI for whole bloc also supported the Euro when it was reported as 47.3 against the forecast of 40.5 and supported single currency Euro. The PMI from the Manufacturing and Services sector boosted in Europe and provided strength to the single currency Euro, which added gains in the EUR/USD pair.

On the other hand, from the American side, the Flash Manufacturing PMI from the United States was released at 18:45 GMT, which showed that Manufacturing activity in the U.S. dropped in June, and index came in as 49.6 against the expected 50.0 and hence, weighed on U.S. dollar.

The weak U.S. dollar added further in the gains of EUR/USD on Tuesday and pushed the pair above the 1.3400 level.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.1479
  • R2 1.1414
  • R1 1.1361

Pivot Point 1.1297

  • S1 1.1244
  • S2 1.118
  • S3 1.1127

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD pair is facing double top resistance at 1.1345 level, and below this, the EUR/USD has solid odds of staying bearish until 1.1266 level. Conversely, a bullish breakout of the 1.1345 level can extend buying until the next target level of 1.1415 level. While the bearish breakout of 1.12500 can lead EUR/USD prices towards 1.1230 and 1.1205. Besides, the leading indicators are mixed; for example, the RSI is suggesting a selling bias, while the MACD is indicating a bullish bias. Let us look for buying trades over the 1.1297 level today. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.25209 after placing a high of 1.25317 and a low of 1.24317. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. GBP/USD pair rose above 1.2500 level and posted gains for 2nd consecutive day on Tuesday on the back of weak USD and strong British Pound after the release of PMI data. Another factor involved in the surge of GBP/USD pair was the plan set out by Britain on how it will regulate the city after Brexit.

On Tuesday, the finance minister of the U.K., Rishi Sunak, said that Britain’s government intends to regulate Europe’s biggest financial sector by making reforms to maintain the soundness of capital markets and managing future risks.

The U.K. left E.U. in January, and it will no longer be required to follow Europe’s financial rules after December when the transition period will end. Sunak said that Britain’s government would tailor the E.U. Capital rules for insurers known as Solvency II after Brexit. The U.K. lawmakers have long criticized the Solvency II rules as too inflexible, and the government intends to start to review it in autumn.

Besides tailoring the rules for the insurance sector, Britain will also make existing retail customer disclosure rules. Sunak showed concern and said that Britain would come under more pressure outside the E.U. to lee pots financial sector globally competitive. The EU is the biggest export customer of the U.K.’s financial services, and an enduring future relationship with the E.U. will help the U.K. maintain its role globally.

Furthermore, the negotiators of Britain and the E.U. have hit by a new obstacle to secure a trade deal after clashing over 70 billion euros worth of subsidies to E.U. farmers by Brussels. The E.U. negotiating team led by Michel Barnier was accused in the latest round of talks of trying to stop the U.K. government from defending British farmers from cut-price European imports.

On the data front, at 13:30 GMT, the Flash Manufacturing PMI from Great Britain for June came in as 50.1 against the expected 45.2 and supported British Pound. The Flash Services PMI for June from the U.K. also surged to 47.0 from the forecasted 39.1 and helped British Pound to gain traction.

The better than expected U.K. Preliminary Manufacturing & Services PMI data provided strength to British Pound on Tuesday, which lifted GBP/USD pair above 1.2500 level. On the other hand, from the U.S. Side, the Flash Manufacturing PMI for June was dropped to 49.6 from the expected 50.0 and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The weak U.S. dollar added in the gains of GBP/USD on Tuesday.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.2378
  • R2 1.2369
  • R1 1.2357

Pivot Point 1.2348

  • S1 1.2337
  • S2 1.2327
  • S3 1.2316

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading bullish at a level of 1.2512, holding right above 50 periods of EMA, which is likely to extend support at a level of 1.2510. On the downside, the GBP/USD may find support around the value of around 1.2445, and the continuation of a selling trade can lead Sterling prices to be further lower until 1.2378 level. The MACD and RSI are expending a mixed bias, as the MACD is holding in a selling zone, while the RSI holds in a buy zone. The recent formation of neutral candles over 1.2510 support level is suggesting indecision among traders. Therefore, we should look for selling trades below 1.2470 and buying trades 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 106.534 after placing a high of 107.220 and a low of 106.071. Overall the movement of USD/JPY remained bearish throughout the day. The USD/JPY pair in early trading hours in Asian session surged above 107.200 level after White House advisor Peter Navarro clarified his statement that the phase one deal was over. Navarro issued a clarification stating that his comments had been taken widely out of context.

On Monday, Navarro said that the trade deal was over, and markets went on a roller coaster after this statement; however, right afterward, he issued a clarified statement which was then backed by the U.S. President himself. U.S. President also provided further assurance after his clarification that the phase-one deal was still intact to avoid any confusion.

U.S. dollar gained after that clarification but failed to post gains in the European session after the strong PMI data from Europe, which made the U.S. dollar weak. U.S. dollar came under pressure, and the pair USD/JPY starting to move in a downward trend. The U.S. Dollar Index was down 0.45% near 96.56 level on Tuesday, which exerted more pressure on the U.S. dollar. Greenback seemed to face high selling pressure after the release of U.S. economic data.

At 5:30 GMT, the Flash Manufacturing PMI from Japan for June dropped to 37.8 against the forecasted 39.5 and weighed on Japanese Yen. However, at 10:00 GMT, the Bank of Japan Core CPI for the year came in as 0.0% against the expected -0.1% and supported the Japanese Yen.

On the U.S. side, at 18:45 GMT, the Flash manufacturing PMI for June came in as 49.6 against the expected 50.0 and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The Flash Services PMI came in line with the expectations of 46.7.

At 18:59 GMT, the Richmond Manufacturing Index for June was up to 0 from expectations of -3 and supported the U.S. dollar. At 19:00 GMT, the New Home Sales in May were recorded as 676K against the expected 637K and supported the U.S. dollar.

The poor than expected PMI data, even after the reopening of economies from all states of America, gave a high selling pressure on the U.S. dollar.

The U.S. dollar’s selling bias was further supported by the latest comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, who said on Tuesday that U.S. Congress would issue more stimulus in July to overcome the pandemic crisis. This depicted the U.S. economy’s weakness, and hence, the U.S. dollar suffered and dragged the USD/JPY pair with itself below 106.100 level on Tuesday.

Daily Support and Resistance    

  • R3 107.13
  • R2 107.05
  • R1 106.94

Pivot Point 106.85

  • S1 106.74
  • S2 106.65
  • S3 106.54

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY traded bearishly to break out of the descending triangle pattern, supporting the pair around 106.800 level. On the lower side, the support level can be seen at 106.400, and violation of this could trigger sell-off until 106 level. The breach of the descending triangle pattern suggests selling bias, but before this, we can expect upward movement in the market until 106.800. Let’s consider taking sell trades below 106.800 level today. 

Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

EUR/USD Bullish Bias Continues – Upward Trendline Support!

The EUR/USD currency pair extended its previous day winning streak and took bids around the 1.1311 level, mainly due to the fresh risk-on market sentiment, which undermined the broad-based US dollar and contributed to the currency pair gains. The reason for the upticks in the currency pair could also be attributed to the report that the Spanish government officials are considering pledging as much as EUR50 billion in additional loan guarantee, which underpinned the shared currency and provided support to the major. 

The EUR/USD currency pair extended its previous day winning streak and took bids around the 1.1311 level, mainly due to the fresh risk-on market sentiment, which undermined the broad-based US dollar and contributed to the currency pair gains. The reason for the upticks in the currency pair could also be attributed to the report that the Spanish government officials are considering pledging as much as EUR50 billion in additional loan guarantee, which underpinned the shared currency and provided support to the major. 

The EUR/USD currency pair extended its previous day winning streak and took bids around the 1.1311 level, mainly due to the fresh risk-on market sentiment, which undermined the broad-based US dollar and contributed to the currency pair gains. The reason for the upticks in the currency pair could also be attributed to the report that the Spanish government officials are considering pledging as much as EUR50 billion in additional loan guarantee, which underpinned the shared currency and provided support to the major. 

Introducing Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), this data released by the Markit Economics captures business conditions in the manufacturing sector. As the manufacturing industry controls a large part of total GDP, the manufacturing PMI is considered as an essential indicator of business conditions and the overall economic condition in the Euro Zone. Usually, a result above 50 signals is seen as bullish for the shared currency. Likewise, a result below 50 is seen as bearish.

As per the current condition, the Eurozone PMIs came out to be robust as easier lockdown restrictions bolstering business activity. Moving on, the big beat on expectations could boost the gains in the shared currency. From the technical perspective, the falling wedge breakout seen on the pair’s hourly chart suggests a rise above the psychological resistance of 1.13. 

At the coronavirus front, the number of reported coronavirus cases increased to 190,862, with a total of 8,895 deaths. As well as, the cases increased by 503 in Germany on Tuesday against Monday’s +537. On Tuesday, the death count rose by ten as per the German disease and epidemic control center, Robert Koch Institute (RKI).

At the USD front, the broad-based US dollar failed to maintain its early day bullish moves and edged lower at least for now, mainly due to the fresh risk-on wave in the market sentiment after Navarro clarified that his comments were taken wrongly by the market and the phase-one pact was on track which gave a boost to the risk market and contributed to the greenback’s decline. However, the reductions in the US dollar kept the currency higher. Whereas, the dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, was largely flat at 96.993, having climbed as high as 97.207 earlier in the session. 

The market traders will keep their eyes on the flash manufacturing PMI for Germany, which is scheduled to be released at 0730 GM. The USD price dynamics will also be essential to watch for some short-term trading impetus ahead.


On the technical side, the EUR/USD is trading sharply bullish in our favor as our forex signal makes around 30 pips. The idea is to move SL at the breakeven level and enjoy the bullish run, but I suspect the EUR/USD will take a bearish recovery below 1.1345 level. Here’s a quick update on the trade signal. 

Entry Price – Buy 1.12914    

Stop Loss – 1.12514    

Take Profit – 1.13314

Risk to Reward – 1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400 / +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$400/ +$40