Author: Ali B.

On the forex front, the U.S. dollar continued to see safe-haven buying. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.4% on the day to 100.58, extending its rally to a third straight session. Later today, the Research firm Markit will publish March U.K. Construction PMI (44.0 expected). The eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index for April will be released (-37.5 expected). The German Federal Statistical Office will report February factory orders (-2.5% on month expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today     

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD slid 0.5% to 1.0809, posting a five-day losing streak. Official data revealed that the eurozone’s retail sales surged 0.9% on month in February (+0.1% expected). Later today, the eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index for April will be released (-37.5 expected).

Speaking about the Germans Factory orders data, this data release by the Deutsche Bundesbank, which indicates the shipments, inventories, and new orders. A surged in the factory order total may show progress in the German economic growth, and it could also be a factor to boost inflation.

It is worth noting that the German Factory influences by two-ways either positively or negatively, the total Eurozone GDP. A high figure is considered as a positive or bullish for the EUR, while a low reading is negative.

Therefore, the pair could drop to 1.0773 previously low on mixed Ferman data. Moreover, if the greenback catches fresh bids on the turnaround in the risk sentiment, the EUR/USD currency pair could suffer in a more profound drop below 107.00 ahead.

As per the coronavirus latest report, the cases rose by 3,677 in Germany when compared with Sunday’s 5,936 new infections, showing the 4th-straight drop in the daily rate. The death toll rose by 92. Consequently, the EUR/USD is suffering badly and may trade sideways as the dollar also suffers alongside. 

Daily Support and Resistance

• S1 1.0653
• S2 1.0732
• S3 1.0769

Pivot Point 1.081

• R1 1.0847
• R2 1.0889
• R3 1.0967

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is trading bearish at 1.080, having an immediate support level of around 1.07990. On the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD has violated the support level of 1.085, which is now working as a resistance. As of now, a bearish breakout of 1.07990 level may extend selling bias until the next support level of 1.0650. While the MACD is staying below 0, supporting the odds selling movements in the market. 

At the same time, the 50 periods exponential moving average is also keeping the EUR/USD in a bearish mode. Bearish crossover of 1.081 area can open further room for selling until 1.065 level. So, let’s consider taking selling trades below 1.081today.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD sank 1.1% to 1.2262. The Markit U.K. Construction PMI for March will be released later in the day (44.0 expected). As per the latest report, the coronavirus cases rose to 33,718 as of 08:00 GMT on April 02, whereas there was a 24% rise in the death toll to 2,921 at the same time.

Meanwhile, the Washington Governor extended the stay-at-home order, whereas S&P declared its U.S. rating at AA+ with expectations of a recovery in 2021. As in result, the market’s risk-tone remains moderately heavy with the U.S. 10-year treasury yields dropped below 0.60%, and most Asian stocks are also flashing red.

As per the latest report, the death toll from the coronavirus increased by 621 to 4,934. The total number of confirmed infections rose to 47,806. Apart from the coronavirus intensifying concerns, the GBP currency could remain bearish in the European trading hours mainly due to the sluggish data, which is released early Monday and showed the British consumer confidence declined to the weakest since February 2009. 

On the flip side, the USD has ignored 7 million drops in the U.S. jobs for March, because the upbeat US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI boded well for the greenback. However, the U.K. Services PMI data for March was revised down to 34.5 points, which will likely push the GBP lower.

Looking forward, the headlines related to the PM Johnson’s condition will remain driver seats. The U.S. dollar dynamics also will be critical to watch for fresh directions. Meanwhile, traders, all eyes will be on the U.K. government COVID-19 meeting, which is scheduled to happen at 0815GMT for new trading impetus. The meeting will be chaired by the U.K. Foreign Secretary Raab and include the advisers and officials.

Daily Support and Resistance

• S1 1.1909
• S2 1.21
• S3 1.2184

Pivot Point 1.229

• R1 1.2375
• R2 1.248
• R3 1.267

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The technical side of the GBP/USD hasn’t changed much as it continues trading sideways in between the same trading range of 1.2275 – 1.2425. On the 4 hour timeframe, the GBP/USD is forming neutral candles despite worse than expected NFP figures from the U.S. Hence, the pair has gained slight support and recovered over 1.2265 resistance level, which is now working as a support. 

On the 4-hour timeframe, the GBP/USD pair may find resistance around 1.2470, along with support around 1.2278. In the case of market breaks bellow 1.2278, we may see GBP/USD prices heading into the selling zone until 1.2100 and 1.2005. Whereas, the chances of buying remains solid over 1.2275 until 1.2520.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

During Monday’s Asian session, the USD/JPY currency pair flashing green and continue to gaining its traction for the 3rd-consecutive session mainly due to fresh risk recovery in the market.

The U.S. bond yields exhibited an uptick, which is providing support to the greenback and also kept the USD/JPY pair higher. Right now, the USD/JPY is trading at 109.25 and consolidates in the range between the 108.37 – 109.38.

However, the USD/JPY pair added to its intraday gains and rose further beyond the 109.00 round-figure marks, hitting fresh one-week tops in the last hour. A fresh drop in the death and cases of coronavirus gave a high relief to the trader. Whereas, the strong gain in the U.S. equity futures weakened the Japanese yen’s safe-haven demand.

On the other hand, the reason behind the Japanese bearish bias could also be TBS News report that the Japanese government is considering 6-months for a state of emergency declaration to control the coronavirus outbreak in Tokyo.

Daily Support and Resistance

• S1 105.37
• S2 106.64
• S3 107.08

Pivot Point 107.91

• R1 108.35
• R2 109.17
• R3 110.44

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

Technically, the USD/JPY pair is trading bullish a 109.177, having violated the choppy trading range of 108.650 – 107.250. With this, the USD/JPY’s best immediate support is likely to be found around 108.700. On the 4 hour timeframe, the Japanese pair has closed a bullish engulfing candle over 50 EMA, which is suggesting odds of more buying in the USD/JPY currency pair. 

With this, the USD/JPY may exhibit further room for buying until 109.680, and violation of this can open more room for buying until 110.500 and 111.450. On the lower side, support continues to hold around 108.750. Let’s look for buying traders over 108.850 today.  

All the best for today! 

On the forex front, the U.S. dollar strengthened against its major peers, with the ICE Dollar Index climbing 0.6% on the day to 100.10. Today’s eyes will be on the Markit that will publish final readings of March Services PMI for the eurozone (28.2 expected), Germany (34.2 expected), France (29.0 expected), the U.K. (34.8 expected) and the U.S. (38.5 expected). The European Commission will post February retail sales (+0.1% on month expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today     

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD sank 1.1% to 1.0845, posting a four-day decline. Later today, the eurozone’s retail sales data for February will be reported (+0.1% on month expected). The market is lacking trading volume and volatility, but the focus will remain on the European economic events. The European Commission will report February January PPI (-0.8% on year expected).

Italy is showing some signs of slowing down in the virus cases despite this the market traders already priced in a recession in the Europan economy, especially in Germany, because the circumstances in Spain continue to rise very fast. The lockdown across Europe continues to weigh on economic activities.

The market risk-off sentiment could more worsen if the U.S. initial jobless claims ignore past expectations, which will send the EUR/USD currency pair to the fresh lowest level. 

Besides the weekly data, the 

Looking forward, the USD moves will continue to play a significant role, as attention shifts to the Euro area Final Services PMI report. Services PMI for the eurozone (28.2 expected), Germany (34.2 expected), France (29.0 expected), the U.K. (34.8 expected), and the U.S. (38.5 expected). The European Commission will post February retail sales (+0.1% on month expected). 

Most importantly, the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls and ISM Non-manufacturing PMI data are scheduled to release later this Friday. The coronavirus related headline could also drag attention.

Daily Support and Resistance

• S1 1.0772
• S2 1.0886
• S3 1.0958

Pivot Point 1.0999

• R1 1.1071
• R2 1.1112
• R3 1.1226

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is trading bearish at 1.090, having an immediate support level of around 1.07990. On the 8-hour timeframe, the EUR/USD has violated the support level of 1.085, which is now working as a resistance. Now, a bearish breakout of 1.07990 level may extend selling bias until the next support level of 1.0650. 

The MACD has also crossed below 0, confirming the chances of more bearish movements in the market. The 50 EMA is also keeping the EUR/USD in a selling mode. For now, the eyes will remain on the U.S. NFP figures to determine further trends in the market. Bearish crossover of 1.1050 area can open further room for selling until 1.065 level. Let’s consider taking selling trades below 1.07990 today.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD edged up 0.1% to 1.2390. The United Kingdom politics are getting warm after the voting to replace the opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn closes. Moreover, the top U.K. judge gave warning that the British judiciary system will take hints from the European rules unless last Brexit-day.

As per the latest report, the coronavirus cases rose to 33,718 as of 08:00 GMT on April 02, whereas there was a 24% rise in the death toll to 2,921 at the same time.

Meanwhile, the Washington Governor extended the stay-at-home order, whereas S&P declared its U.S. rating at AA+ with expectations of a recovery in 2021. As in result, the market’s risk-tone remains moderately heavy with the U.S. 10-year treasury yields dropped below 0.60%, and most Asian stocks are also flashing red.

The U.S. Labor Department will release March nonfarm payrolls report (-100,000 jobs, jobless rate at 3.8% expected). The Institute for Supply Management will post its Non-manufacturing Index for March (43.0 expected). It’s going to be a big day, not only for the GBP/USD but also for the rest of the dollar related currency pairs. 

Daily Support and Resistance

• S1 1.217
• S2 1.2278
• S3 1.2334

Pivot Point 1.2387

• R1 1.2443
• R2 1.2495
• R3 1.2604

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD trade sideways in between the same trading range of 1.2275 – 1.2425. On the 4 hour timeframe, the Cable has formed neutral candles as we may not see further trends until and unless the pair manages to come out of this narrow range. For that reason, the pair needs a solid fundamental reason, which we are not expecting from the United Kingdom today. Let’s see if U.S. claims help drive some price action in the market. On the 4-hour timeframe, the GBP/USD pair is pretty much likely to find resistance around 1.2470, along with support around 1.2278. In the case of market breaks bellow 1.2278, we may see GBP/USD prices heading into the selling zone until 1.2100 and 1.2005. Whereas, the chances of buying remains solid over 1.2275 until 1.2520.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair continues to taking bids and rose above the 108.00 level despite the high risk-off sentiment in the market, which would typically keep the Japanese yen secure. However, the pair’s bullish trend could be attributed to the sharp rise in oil prices. The USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 108.25 and consolidates in the range between the 107.81 – 108.27. The broad-based greenback strength also keeps the pair higher. 

As per the latest report, the COVID-19 cases have surpassed one million worldwide with over a death toll rate of over 50,000. Meanwhile, the Washington Governor extended the stay-at-home order, whereas S&P declared its U.S. rating at AA+ with expectations of a recovery in 2021. 

As well as, Japan is now facing a rise in cases that are increasing the market risk tone time by time, which eventually will likely be good for the safe-haven Japanese yen currency. As in result, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fell below 0.60%, down 3-basis points (bps), whereas the U.S. stock futures also mark losses of near 1.0% by the press time. Even so, stocks in Asia-Pacific are moderately positive after the recent Aussie, Japan data.

Lastly, Tokyo also reporting a record hit in daily coronavirus (COVID-19) cases extended school holidays through May 06. Recently, Japan’s Economy Minister Nishimura said that we would consider support for production rise and adopting of ECMO as part of the economic plans to combat from the COVID-19.

Daily Support and Resistance

• S1 105.37
• S2 106.64
• S3 107.08

Pivot Point 107.91

• R1 108.35
• R2 109.17
• R3 110.44

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Friday, the technical side of the market continues to exhibit choppy trading sessions within a wide trading range of 108.650 – 107.250. The best idea is to buy at the lower limit 107.250 and sell below 108.650 for now, but on the news release of U.S. nonfarm payroll, we can experience a potential breakout in the USD/JPY pair. 

The USD/JPY is trading at 108.270, consolidating sideways, right above a next support level of 107.750. On the higher side, a bullish breakout of 108.650 resistance level can lead the USD/JPY prices higher towards 109.750 level. Until then, we should look for doing choppy trading by selling below 108.600 and buying over 107.250. Below 107.200, the next support will stay around 105.990.

All the best for today! 

The U.S. dollar failed to keep its momentum, with the Dollar Index marking a day-high of 99.93 before closing down 0.2% on the day to 99.01. Later today, eyes will be on the Markit as it will publish final readings of March Manufacturing PMI for the eurozone (44.6 expected), Germany (45.5 expected), France (42.9 expected), the U.K. (47.0 expected) and the U.S. (48.0 expected). The European Commission will report February jobless rate (steady at 7.4% expected). The German Federal Statistical Office will post February retail sales (+0.1% on month expected). Here’s a technical and fundamental outlook for today.

Economic Events to Watch Today     

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD was broadly flat at 1.1027. Official data showed that the eurozone’s CPI grew 0.7% on year in March (+0.8% expected), while the German jobless rate was steady at 5.0% (5.1% estimated). Later today, the eurozone’s February jobless rate (7.4% expected) and German retail sales (+0.1% on month estimated) will be released.

Italy marked as the second-highest country of confirmed cases in the world after the United States (140,470). Total cases are 92,472 confirmed, marking up the highest death rate in the world. 

Today, the manufacturing data are also scheduled to release in this day later. A disappointment on expectations by a big margin will likely send the greenback lower across the board. The European Commission will report February jobless rate (steady at 7.4% expected). The German Federal Statistical Office will post February retail sales (+0.1% on month expected).

Looking forward, all traders now keep their eyes on the German retail sales and manufacturing data, which is scuddled to release on at 06:00 GMT. The coronavirus headlines will take a driver’s seat while investors are likely to hold cash in the form of U.S. dollars due to intensifying coronavirus concerns.

Daily Support and Resistance

• S1 1.0772
• S2 1.0886
• S3 1.0958

Pivot Point 1.0999

• R1 1.1071
• R2 1.1112
• R3 1.1226

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD is trading slightly bearish at 1.097, having an immediate support level of around 1.0947. As we can see on the 4-hour chart above, the EUR/USD had formed a bullish channel supported the pair around 1.1060, but has now been violated. The breakout of an upward channel has a huge potential to drive the selling trend in the EUR/USD currency pair.

On the higher side, the EUR/USD pair is facing resistance at 1.1050 area. Bullish crossover of 1.1050 area can open further room for buying until 1.1145 level. Whereas, the chances of a bearish bias will remain strong if the pair closes a 4-hour candle below 1.0950 level today. On the lower side, the target is likely to target 1.0947 and 1.0885. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD was little changed at 1.2413. A day before, Sterling surged as traders reconciled their portfolios before the end of the first quarter of 2020, although analysts said the currency remained fragile.

However, the worse than expected economic events throughout the first quarter continued to weigh on the market’s risk-tone during the early Asian session.

Today, the US ADP Employment report and the ISM Manufacturing data are scheduled to release in this day later. A miss on expectations by a significant margin will likely send the greenback lower across the board. However, the losses could be temporary, mainly because the coronavirus outbreak is not showing any sign of slowing down with the number of cases in the U.S. continue to rise and reached above 177,000 so far. 

The economic calendar is mostly empty for the U.K.; therefore, the coronavirus updates will keep the driver’s seat until the U.S. session. Moreover, the ADP Employment Change and March month activity numbers from the world’s largest economy will be essential to watch for taking fresh direction.

Daily Support and Resistance

• S1 1.202
• S2 1.2208
• S3 1.2319

Pivot Point 1.2396

• R1 1.2507
• R2 1.2584
• R3 1.2772

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD hasn’t moved much as it continues trading sideways around within a narrow trading range of 1.2275 – 1.2425. On the 4 hour timeframe, the Cable is forming bullish and bearish candles, showing a tug of war between the bulls and bears. We may not see further trends until and unless the pair manages to come out of this narrow range. In order to do this, the pair needs a solid fundamental reason, which we are not expecting from the United Kingdom.

On the 4-hour timeframe, the GBP/USD pair is pretty much likely to find resistance around 1.2470, along with support around 1.2278. In the case of market breaks bellow 1.2278, we may see GBP/USD prices heading into the selling zone until 1.2100 and 1.2005. Whereas, the chances of buying remains solid over 1.2275 until 1.2520.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair looking flat and hit the high of 107.95 from the low o 107.25 mainly due to the greenback continue to pick the bids as a safe-haven demand after the report in the U.S. said that experts expecting the virus could kill almost 100,000 and 240,000 Americans despite social distancing measures. 

The USD/JPY got support also from the Bank of Japan’s Tankan corporate survey, which showed Japanese manufacturers turned downbeat for the first time in seven years. The USD/PY is trading at 107.58 and consolidates in the range between the 107.25 – 107.94.

Besides, the risk sentiment in the market is getting worse time by time due to intensifying concerns over the coronavirus (COVID-19). As in result, the USD/JPY pair dropped earlier as JPY was getting strong bids due to its safe-haven demand while the U.S. dollar strength was supporting the pair to stay bullish. 

As per the latest report, the coronavirus outbreak is not showing any sign of slowing down with the number of cases in the U.S. continue to rise and reached above 177,000 so far. The coronavirus cases continue to increase in Europe, with Spain and Italy reporting a total of 200,000 cases so far.

The U.S. President Trump was increasing the possibilities of another major infrastructure package or some $2trn within the next relief bill. At the same time, the Democratic House Speaker, Nancy Pelosi, also declared that the United States should start developing and discussing the 4th stimulus bill. Thus, the USD/JPY pair can trade bearish in the wake of a weaker dollar and stronger yen.

Daily Support and Resistance

• S1 105.37
• S2 106.64
• S3 107.08

Pivot Point 107.91

• R1 108.35
• R2 109.17
• R3 110.44

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Wednesday, the USD/JPY is trading at 107.570, consolidating sideways, right above an immediate support level of 107.200. The USD/JPY’s trading range remains narrow as the upper limit stays at 108.500, and the lower limit rests at 107.150. 

We see neutral candles, which may trigger a breakout at any side of the market. But the bullish breakout of 108.650 resistance level can lead the USD/JPY prices higher towards 109.750 level. Until then, we should look for doing choppy trading by selling below 108.600 and buying over 107.250. Below 107.200, the next support will stay around 105.990. All the best for today!  

During Asian trading hours Monday, the ICE U.S. Dollar Index regained strength at 102.81, while U.S. stock futures hit daily downside limits. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said U.S. jobless rate might soar to 30% in the second quarter, and the Fed can provide more support if necessary.

Later in the day, the European Commission will release the eurozone’s March Consumer Confidence Index (-14.0 expected). In the U.S., the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago will post February National Activity Index (-0.29 expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today    

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

This morning, EUR/USD fell 0.2% to 1.0673, following a 0.4% gain on Friday. Later today, the eurozone’s March Consumer Confidence Index (-14.0 expected) will be released. The German IFO Business Climate Index dropped to 87.7 in March (88.0 expected) from 96.0 in February.

Moving on, the greenback may come under pressure and may allow EUR/USD to extend the recovery seen in the Asian session if the risk market further recovers in the European trading hour ahead. After the announcement of stimulus, the ECB President Christine Lagarde showed a willingness to use all essential tools to stop the negative impacts of the deadly virus. 

Moving on, the EUR/USD pair may cross the strong resistance level if the risk-off market sentiment gets more worsens ahead. Eventually, it will likely fuel deeper losses in the greenback and may increase demand for the common currency.

The economic calendar is light today with the German Bundesbank’s monthly report is scheduled to release during the European trading session. Therefore, the traders may also take cues from the Eurozone Consumer Confidence for March and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for February for new directions.

Daily Support and Resistance

• S1 1.0335
• S2 1.0529
• S3 1.0615

Pivot Point 1.0723

• R1 1.0809
• R2 1.0917
• R3 1.1111

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

On Monday, the major currency pair EUR/USD traded bearishly as it as violated and closed below horizontal support becomes a resistance level of 1.0990. The EUR/USD is trading around 1.0750, and it’s forming a lower-lows pattern on the 4-hour chart, which mostly drives a continuation of a selling trend. 

Right now, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.0720, consolidating in a narrow trading range of 1.0817 – 1.0660. The EUR/USD is facing hurdles around 1.0817, and above this, the pair has the potential to target the next resistance level of 1.0930. 

While the EUR/USD has odds of staying bearish below 1.0920 to target 1.0805. On the daily chart, a violation of 1.0605 can extend the selling trend until 1.0550.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD retreated 0.7% to 1.1557, after a 1.4% rally in the prior session. During the previous week, the Bank of England lowered its benchmark rate by 15 basis points to 0.10%. It announced that it would increase its holdings of U.K. government bonds and sterling non-financial investment-grade corporate bonds by GBP200 billion, to counter the economic shock caused by the coronavirus.

The GBP/USD pair slipped due to a stronger dollar after the U.S. official data showed that housing starts posted at an annualized rate of 1.599 million units in February (1.500 million units expected).

On the other hand, the U.S. Senate’s failure to pass the much-awaited COVID-19 Bill sent the Treasury yields and Asian stocks down. Apart from this, the conference by the G20 Finance Ministers may also offer some intermediate clues, and it will be key to watch. In contrast, the US Chicago Fed National Activity may also give some meaningful inspiration.

The PM’s Chief adviser Dominic Cummings faced criticism about supporting herd immunity. Therefore any progress in the story could also entertain the GBP/USD traders. 

Daily Support and Resistance

• S1 1.0953
• S2 1.1333
• S3 1.1492

Pivot Point 1.1713

• R1 1.1872
• R2 1.2094
• R3 1.2474

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On Monday, the GBP/USD prices are consolidating in a broad trading range of 1.1400 – 1.1885. Yet, the trend of the market isn’t clear as investors are waiting for a solid fundamental to drive further movement in the market. On the higher side, the bullish breakout of the 1.1885 level can open the buying trend until the next resistance level of 1.2185 (38.2% Fibo level) and 1.2300 level, which markets 50% retracement while the pair has solid chances of bouncing off over 1.1450 level. A bearish breakout of 1.1425 level can lead the Cable towards the next support area of 1.1050. The MACD is tossing above and below zero as investors are unable to determine the trend of the market. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

During the early Asian session, the USD/JPY currency pair flashing red and dropped below the 110 marks, representing 0.73% losses on the day mainly due to the U.S. Senate’s failure to pass the much-awaited COVID-19 Bill triggered the strong risk-off market sentiment. 

The Japanese yen is now finding bids as a safe-haven demand has sent the USD/JPY pair lower. The USD/JPY is trading at 110.08 right now, and it continues to consolidate in the range between the 109.67 – 111.260. However, the USD/JPY was initially trading near 111.25 on Friday, due to broad-based USD strength.

Despite positive signals from U.S. President Donald Trump, the Senate declined to pass the much-awaited incentive to control the deadly virus impact. This news initially sent the U.S. equity futures to the limit down.

The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Neel Kashkari, followed the role of St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard, who expected the 2nd-quarter (Q2) GDP to decrease by 50% and the increase in Unemployment Rate to 30%. Meanwhile, the Minneapolis head mentioning that the Fed has unlimited cash to support the financial system. As a result, they are trying to support the U.S. dollar.

On the other hand, the coronavirus (COVID-19) fears continue to increase because numbers of the death toll from the U.S. and Italy rising day by day. The 36 cases reported in New Zealand, which is currently taking the market’s attention. Lastly, Japanese media signaled that the Asian countries might soon ban entries of U.S. travelers.

Daily Support and Resistance    

• S1 105.08
• S2 107.59
• S3 109.24

Pivot Point 110.1

• R1 111.75
• R2 112.61
• R3 115.13

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Monday, the USD/JPY pair has shown a slight bearish movement, falling from 110.65 level to 109.580. On the 4 hour chart, the USD/JPY has formed a bullish channel that is still intact, and it’s pretty much likely to support the USD/JPY prices around 109.650. 

A bearish breakout of 109.600 level can lead the USD/JPY prices towards the next support level of 108.350, and around this level, we can expect USD/JPY to bounce off again. Conversely, the pair faces resistance around 111 and 112.190 today. Let’s stay bullish above 109.650 and bearish below the same level today. 

All the best for today!  

The U.S. dollar strengthened further as other major central banks eased their monetary policies. The ICE Dollar Index jumped 1.8% on the day to 102.94, posting a three-day rally to the strongest level since Jan. 2017.

Later today, the European Central Bank will post January’s current account balance. The German Federal Statistical Office will report February PPI (+0.2% on-year expected).

The U.K. Office for National Statistics will release February public sector net borrowing, excluding banking groups (0.8 billion pounds expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today    

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

EUR/USD plunged 2.6% to 1.0662, the lowest level since April 2017. The German IFO Business Climate Index dropped to 87.7 in March (88.0 expected) from 96.0 in February.

Moving on, the greenback may come under pressure and may allow EUR/USD to extend the recovery seen in the Asian session if the risk market further recovers in the European trading hour ahead. After the announcement of stimulus, the ECB President Christine Lagarde showed a willingness to use all essential tools to stop the negative impacts of the deadly virus. 

European stocks returned to positive territory, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index gaining 2.9%. Germany’s DAX rebounded 2.0%, France’s CAC rose 2.7%, and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 was up 1.4%. A slight improvement in the stocks is also driving the bullish movement in the EUro. 

At the press time, the EUR/USD currency pair turned lower from 1.0980 to below 1.08 due to the strong haven bid around the dollar rose, producing significant gains for the greenback against the bucket of currencies. At the data front, all trader’s eyes on Germany’s Producer Price Index for February and the Eurozone Current Account data for January. Apart from this, the U.S. will release Existing Home Sales for February at 14:00 GMT. 

Daily Support and Resistance

• S1 1.0434
• S2 1.0677
• S3 1.0795

Pivot Point 1.092

• R1 1.1038
• R2 1.1163
• R3 1.1406

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

Lately, the currency pair EUR/USD traded bearishly as it as violated and closed below horizontal support becomes a resistance level of 1.0990. The EUR/USD is currently trading around 1.0750, and it’s forming a lower-lows pattern on the 4-hour chart, which mostly drives a continuation of a selling trend. 

At the moment, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.0750, essentially taking a bullish retracement. The EUR/USD is expected to find a hurdle around 1.0820, and above this, the pair has the potential to target the next resistance level of 1.0930. While the EUR/USD has robust odds of lingering bearish below 1.0920 to target 1.0805. On the daily chart, a violation of 1.0605 can extend the selling trend until 1.0550.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD dipped 0.9% to 1.1499, down for an eighth straight session. The Bank of England lowered its benchmark rate by 15 basis points to 0.10% and announced that it would increase its holdings of U.K. government bonds and sterling non-financial investment-grade corporate bonds by GBP200 billion, to counter the economic shock caused by the coronavirus.

The GBP/USD pair slipped due to a stronger dollar after the U.S. official data showed that housing starts posted at an annualized rate of 1.599 million units in February (1.500 million units expected).

The Coronavirus cases rose from 643 to 3,269 during the last 24 hours in the U.K., but the separation of U.K.e Brexit Chief David Frost got major attention. The reason being his counterpart in the European Union (E.U.), Michel Barnier, also E.U.cing the flu-like deadly disease. As in result, it puts a question mark on the further Brexit talks.

As in result, the Asian stocks follow the foot-steps of Wall Street’s recovery, whereas the U.S. ten-year treasury yieldU.S.also rise to 1.158% by the press time. Due to the lack of major data, investors will keep their eyes on the coronavirus headlines.

Daily Support and Resistance

• S1 1.0821
• S2 1.1191
• S3 1.1328

Pivot Point 1.1561

• R1 1.1698
• R2 1.1931
• R3 1.2301

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is finally recovering a bit in the wake of bullish correction and trades around 1.1850. The pair continues to drop for a second consecutive week but seems to close a candle a bit higher this time. On the weekly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has violated the descending triangle pattern, which supports it around the 1.2030 level. Below the 1.2030 level, the GBP/USD has expected to drop further until the next support level of 1.1245. Since the market was oversold, traders have entered buying to take profit before the weekends. As forecasted, we see bullish correction above 1.1245 level until 1.1885 or 1.2045 level, but then again, chances of selling will remain strong. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

Today in the early Asian session, the USD/JPY currency pair flashing red and turned from the one-month high set earlier. However, the currency pair failed to maintain its early Asian session’s gains and dropped to 109.300 from the high of 111.35, mainly due to the long U.S. Dollar bearish sentiment. As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pairs currently trading at 109.67 and consolidates in the range between the 109.33 – 111.36.

A strong effort by central banks across the world to quiet investor’s moods and decrease fears about the global recession sent the USD lower on the last trading day of the week and was seen as one of the key factors behind the pair’s ongoing corrective drop.

Meanwhile, the losses seemed unaffected by a strong recovery in the global risk sentiment, which seems to weaken the Japanese yen’s safe-haven demand. Investors’ looking for perceived riskier assets due to a positive mood in the equity.

Daily Support and Resistance    

• S1 105.08
• S2 107.59
• S3 109.24

Pivot Point 110.1

• R1 111.75
• R2 112.61
• R3 115.13

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Friday, the safe-haven currency pair is trading above 108.400, the previously violated the double top resistance level of 107.950, and closing of candles above this level may drive further buying in the pair. On the 4 hour timeframe, the USD/JPY is trading within an upward channel, which is likely to drive further buying in the pair. 

On Friday, we may see USD/JPY finding support at 108.100 level, and above this, the chances of buying remain stable until the next resistance level of 110. Let’s stay bullish above 108.850 today. 

All the best for today!  

The U.S. dollar strengthened versus its major peers for a second straight session, with the ICE Dollar Index bouncing 0.2% on the day to 96.60. The European Central Bank will announce its key policy rates (deposit facility rate at -0.5% expected). The European Commission will report January industrial production (+1.5% on month expected). During the U.S. session, the U.S. Labor Department will release February PPI (+1.8% on-year expected), and initial jobless claims in the week ended March 7 (220,000 expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today   

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD fell 0.2% to 1.1263. It is reported that the European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde told European Union leaders that Europe is facing a major economic shock, and that ECB is looking at all of its tools for the monetary policy meeting due later today.

There are so high chances of a slowdown in the Eurozone, especially in Germany, in the wake of dangerous coronavirus. So, possibly the European Central Bank will go with another stimulus measure on Thursday to soften the economic fallout, which may hurt the shared currency very well. 

The European Central Bank will announce its key policy rates (deposit facility rate at -0.5% expected). The European Commission will report January industrial production (+1.5% on month expected).

Considering the slowdown in the economy, the markets are expecting a cut in the deposit rate, which currently stands at -0.5%. Therefore, the EUR could see a sharp rise if the central bank keeps rates unchanged. The traders are keenly awaiting the ECB rate decision to take new directions. The Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate, Industrial Production m/m, Italian 10-y Bond Auction also will be key to watch.

Daily Support and Resistance

• S1 1.106
• S2 1.1176
• S3 1.1218

Pivot Point 1.1293

• R1 1.1335
• R2 1.1409
• R3 1.1526

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is trading with a mixed bias around 1.1305 on Thursday as it seems to extend the bearish trend even after completing the 38.2%% and 50% Fibonacci retracement levels around 1.1350 and 1.1275.  

The EUR/USD is currently trading around 1.1305, and it’s forming lowers low pattern on the 4-hour chart, which mostly drives a continuation of a selling trend. On the lower side, a continuation of a selling bias can extend sell-off until 1.1200 and 1.1095. While the bullish breakout of 1.1350 can drive more buying until 1.1454 area. Consider staying bullish over 1.1275 and bearish below the same level today. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD dropped 0.7% to 1.2817. The Bank of England slashed its benchmark rate by 50 basis points to 0.25% after a special meeting, citing economic shock from the coronavirus. On the other hand, official data showed that the U.K.’s GDP growth was flat on month in January (+0.2% estimated), and industrial production declined 0.1% in February (+0.3% expected).

Whereas, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yields failed to continue the previous day’s run-up, current down by 8-basis points (bps) to 0.67%.

The U.K. Office for National Statistics will report January monthly GDP (+0.2% on month expected), industrial production (+0.3% on month expected), manufacturing production (+0.2% on month expected) and trade balance (356 million pounds deficit projected). 

At the U.K. front, there are fewer chances that the British PM Johnson will announce any major stimulus after the BOE joined the budgetary push to defeat the virus the previous day. However, Traders should wait for the final announcement because we all know that the Tory leader is famous for providing surprises.

Looking forward, the US PPI and Jobless Claims will likely entertain the momentum traders. The overall PPI was likely lower due to the weakening in energy prices, similar to the pattern in the CPI (TD -0.2%). The core measures were probably moderately weak as well after the above-trend readings in January.

Daily Support and Resistance

• S1 1.2523
• S2 1.2695
• S3 1.2758

Pivot Point 1.2867

• R1 1.293
• R2 1.3039
• R3 1.3211

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On Thursday, the GBP/USD continues to trade in a bearish mode due to the BOE rate cut decision. The GBP/USD has dropped further after violating the immediate support level of 1.2850, which is now working as a resistance. 

Continuation of a selling trend can lead the GBP/USD prices towards 1.2740 and 1.2720. On the higher side, the GBP/USD is likely to trade bullish until 1.2840 level, and bullish breakout of which may drive further buying until 1.2910 level. The MACD is consistently forming bearish histograms below zero, supporting the selling trend in the GBP/USD pair, which is why we should consider selling below 1.2825 today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair hit the bearish track and dropped below the 104.00, mainly due to a sharp decline in the equity market. U.S. President Donald Trump failed to ease the fears about intensifying coronavirus slowdown in the global economy, which later boosted the safe-haven Japanese yen and sent the USD/JPY pair lower near the 103.30. As of writing, the safe haven pair is trading at 107.30 and consolidates in the range between the 103.09 – 104.81.

Trump said during his speech that the U.S. would ban all flights from Europe to the U.S. for the next 30 days effective Friday at midnight. While also says that travel bans will not apply to the U.K., He said that the U.S. would take emergency action to provide financial relief for workers who are ill, hospitalized, or caring for others due to coronavirus. Whereas also says that we will provide capital and liquidity to the small firms which are affected by the coronavirus, provide low-interest loans as well. Trump promised to provide $200 billion in additional liquidity in the fight against coronavirus. 

As we already mentioned that the investors were expecting a more potent stimulus and sold risk after Trump’s speech. The S&P 500 futures, which traded 0.5% lower ahead of President’s address, are now reporting a 2.4% decline. Meanwhile, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury registering losses by 5-basis points at 0.76%. 

Daily Support and Resistance

• S1 99.41
• S2 102.11
• S3 103.7

Pivot Point 104.81

• R1 106.4
• R2 107.51
• R3 110.21

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading at 103.800 and has already violated the double bottom support level of 104.100. Closing of 4-hour candle below this level confirms the chances of further selling in the pair. The recent candle on the 4-hour chart is bearish engulfing in nature as it’s covering the full body of the precious candle, and it signifies the chances of further selling in the USD/JPY pair. 

Below 104.250, the selling trend continuation can lead the USD/JPY prices towards 101.670, whereas, further buying over 104.250 can lead the USD/JPY to 106.250 area.

All the best for today!