Tag: Trump

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How Forex traders factor in President Trump – The Enemy Of Predictability!

https://youtu.be/6srucqCYqNg

https://youtu.be/6srucqCYqNg

How do traders factor in President Trump?

 

Thank you for joining this forex academy educational video.
In this session, we will be looking at how President Donald Trump affects the financial markets and what precautions traders have to take since he came to power.
First of all, we need to remind ourselves that President Trump has never been a politician, he has never been a diplomat, and some members of the democratic party in the United States, and a lot of other people besides, might argue that he doesn’t have a diplomatic bone in his body.
President Trump inherited a fortune from his late father and made himself a name in reality TV. He has brought a certain element of reality TV to his presidency. Often his style is considered to be chaotic, argumentative, belligerent. He has been accused of lying, and the democratic party tried to have him impeached halfway through his presidency.

Certainly, there seems to be a great deal of animosity between himself and the speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, who, not happy with losing the opportunity to have him impeached halfway through his term in office, is now working to have him removed from office over concerns about his inability to run the office. Where, under the 25th Amendment, should she succeed, vice president Pence would take over.

This will only serve to cause more friction between the pair. And when Donald Trump’s cage is rattled, he tends to be reactive, which may be causing the delay to the proposed stimulus bill. The longer is stalled, the more it will adversely affect Americans and American companies. The current impasse between the republicans and the democrats is the difference between 1 trillion or 2 trillion dollars. Surely it would make sense to at least start with the smaller of the two amounts and build from there, rather than make people suffer.
And one has to ask if this is a personal vendetta because it certainly seems to be a power struggle. And of course, this is all a part of Donald trump’s leadership style: one day he says there will be a stimulus bill, the next day he says there will not be a stimulus bill until the US Presidential election is over. This, of course, affects the United States stock markets. The knock-on effect is felt by other global markets and numerous assets, including treasuries, bonds, and of course, it is also affecting the United States dollar and every currency traded against the dollar.

But singularly, the most disruptive way that Trump affects the financial markets is his use of Twitter. With a single tweet, Donald Trump can move markets dramatically, where in years past, high-level economic data releases have been subject to an embargo. President Trump will simply issue a tweet at any time he sees fit, the consequences of which can cause the financial markets to suffer extreme volatility, with some traders benefiting and, of course, many others losing money because of this style alone.
And so, if you are relatively new to trading, we suggest you add President Trump to your Twitter feed to keep abreast of his tweets, or better still, only trade when he is in bed asleep. Remember to expect the unexpected from him.

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Forex Market Analysis Forex Videos

Forex & The US Presidential Election – How To Trade Biden VS Trump!

https://youtu.be/MU6C9-G7SLc

https://youtu.be/MU6C9-G7SLc

The US Presidential Election – what to expect from the Forex space?

Thank you for joining this Forex academy educational video. In this session, we will be looking at the upcoming US Presidential Election and what could happen in the Forex space in the run up to it and after the winner is announced.

It is a time of uncertainty in the global financial markets, with many Western countries seeing a second wave of the coronavirus, with massive unemployment and peaks and troughs in global gross domestic product, where no sooner can an economy begin to get back on its feet than a second lockdown offers the prospect of greater unemployment, more economic uncertainty and whereby governments are required to bail out their citizens and businesses with vast amounts of quantitative easing, which will see huge debt burdens emerge for generations to come.
Add to this the most contentious US presidential election ever, and it can only mean one thing: uncertainty. And traders and investors, including institutions, do not like uncertainty. It means that they have to diversify their portfolios in order to mitigate against risk.

The basic premise is that should Donald Trump managed to secure a second term in office, he has pledged to continue with the corporate reforms, and he has promised and to continue easing taxes. Whereas Joe Biden has promised to raise corporate taxes, and where he will undoubtedly increase liability on corporations with regard to further reforms and red tape, which has the effect of strangling the performance of the business. Not what you need in times like these.

Before the pandemic took hold in the United States, President Donald Trump was riding high with record-breaking high levels of employment, and record-breaking values in stock markets, largely because of his tax and corporate red tape roll backs and reforms. The investors loved him. He was undoubtedly one of the most successful presidents of all times in terms of the economic performance of the USA.

Fast forward a few months, and he could potentially go down as one of the worst presidents, and this has largely been down to what has been termed by many journalists, economists, and analysts, as well as great swathes of the population in the United States, has having lost grip of the pandemic to the point that he wilfully ignored the damage that it could do in terms of health to its citizens and to the health of the economy.

The polls suggest that he will pay the price and lose the election to Joe Biden.

And because we may see higher taxation and a rollback of reformed policies should Joe Biden become the next president of the United States, this is why we are seeing a pull-back in the US equities markets, and here we can see that the Dow Jones industrial average of the 30 leading companies had made incredible rebounds from the lows of middle of March when the pandemic really hit America hard, add where we almost saw a 100% rebound of the record-breaking high from February of over 29,000 for the index, on the basis that the market believed that the US federal reserve bank was handling the coronavirus well in terms of its interest rate policy and the amount of stimulus being offered by the government and hopes that a vaccine would quickly help the US to recover to pre-crisis levels and beyond.

In this yearly US dollar index chart, which measures the value of the US dollar against the most other widely traded currencies, the so-called majors, including the yen, euro, pound, Swiss franc, and Australian and New Zealand dollars, we can see that it found support at 92.00 in September, after heavily losing out against the majors, and more recently found support at 93.00 before pushing above 94.00. This is what we might expect as the US dollar has often been bought as a safe haven asset in uncertain times, and while the markets try to determine the amount of risk of the unknown, which is what would happen if Joe Biden and the Democrats took power. The dollar is also being bought and stocks sold because the democrats and republicans have not yet been able to reach an agreement on a much-needed extension to the financial stimulus aid package to help keep American firms and the public afloat.
Therefore, no stimulus deal could possibly now be agreed until after the elections, which will lead to more uncertainly, therefore more of the same for stocks and the dollar.
But if Donald Trump is elected for a second term, stocks should rally, and this might have the effect of a stronger US dollar and softer counter currencies, including the majors, perhaps with the exception of the British pound, but only in the event that the UK and EU manage to secure a free trade deal, and also perhaps with the exception to the New Zealand dollar, which is currently being very resilient to the recent upswing in the US dollar.
But if Joe Biden takes power, we would highly likely see extreme market volatility in all financial assets and where the fear of the unknown would offer no real directional bias for the markets in the short term. We also should look at the possibility that even if Biden swept to power, the markets might believe that he could handle the pandemic better than Trump, be less provocative to foreign powers – which could help investment in the USA – and this might also bring back investors into the equities space as a direct result. With the democrats then holding all the aces in Congress, a stimulus deal would be more likely to get through more quickly, and more stimulus should, theoretically, mean a softer US dollar, in which case traders will be looking for opportunities to short it against the majors in particular.
One thing is for certain; the markets are in for a bumpy ride. Traders, be warned.

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Forex Videos

Donald Trump v Covid 19 – Forex Trading Tips!

 

 

 

Donald Trump v Covid-19, the fight is on, but how will the markets fare?

All the world’s a stage, wrote William Shakespeare in his comedy; As you like it. And one thing is true. The Donald Trump presidency has been theatre, the like of which we have never seen in politics in the western world. Let’s go back to December 2019; the US economy was buoyant with record employment, record stock market highs, and the US was a few weeks short of signing a massive phase one trade deal with China. Donald Trump was on the cusp of going down as the greatest American President ever, in terms of steering the US to economic glory.
Step forward a few months, and the global Covid-19 pandemic has all but reversed the economic fortunes for the US with massive unemployment, an economy in freefall, instability, and with the presidential elections just a month away, at the time of writing. Donald Trump and his management of the Covid crisis in the US now looks likely to leave a legacy of being one of the worst US presidents ever.


Love him or loathe him, President Trump has been a major critic of the Chinese government, who he blames for what he calls the China virus. He has spewed out vitriol against them in many statements, and this has led to threats of tariffs, sanctions, bans on Chinese companies operating in the US such as tik-tok, WeChat, Huawei for so-called security reasons, and now that he has had a taste of the virus himself, one can only imagine how things might be escalated from here, when and if he recovers.
Many would argue that Donald Trump testing positive for Covid is poetic justice for a man who consistently played down the seriousness of the disease, while criticising people such as his presidential opponent, Joe Biden, for wearing a mask, when he himself often refused to do so. In fact, it was likely that a recent event in the White House Rose Garden, regarding the nominee for the vacant supreme court judge, was very likely a super spreading Covid event, where many members of the Republican team are dropping like flies, as one by one, as they test positive for Covid.
People will say that Donald Trump had it coming, and it was only a matter of time and wonder how on earth the most secure building on earth, the White House, with all of its technology, and private hospital wing, could allow the President and so many of his aides and colleagues to become infected. This was probably down to sheer bloody mindedness by Donald Trump, who just didn’t take the disease seriously enough.


And getting back to the important presidential election on the 3rd of November, everything is now up in the air, with a quarantine of 10 days and a period of convalescence required, should President Trump shake off the disease, bearing in mind he is 74 and overweight and has a gruelling schedule that many much younger men would not be able to cope, with is it likely that he will be fit enough, should he recover, continue with the election campaign?


The financial markets will see great uncertainty regarding the prospect of President Trump returning for a second term to the White House. There are constitutional issues with regard to voting, which is already going on, with many ballot papers already having been returned, and if Donald Trump is not able to stand, questions remain about how that might affect votes for the second in command, Mike Pence. And with Joe Biden leading in the polls, institutional investors will be worried about extra regulations and higher taxes, should he win the presidential election. And with all this uncertainty, we can expect a great amount of volatility in the markets where institutions will be recalibrating their portfolios and where a risk-off event will take place, with stock markets edging lower, if not falling, and a great deal of volatility in the currency space, which might see a dollar resurgence. Because this event is unprecedented, it is really hard to call. But one thing is for sure; we will see extra volatility.

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, March 19 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Trump Set to Speak on Coronavirus! 

On the forex front, the ICE U.S. Dollar Index surged 1.3% on the day to 100.91, the highest level since April 2017. The U.S. Labor Department will release initial jobless claims in the week ended March 14 (220,000 expected).

On the forex front, the ICE U.S. Dollar Index surged 1.3% on the day to 100.91, the highest level since April 2017. The U.S. Labor Department will release initial jobless claims in the week ended March 14 (220,000 expected).

On the forex front, the ICE U.S. Dollar Index surged 1.3% on the day to 100.91, the highest level since April 2017. The U.S. Labor Department will release initial jobless claims in the week ended March 14 (220,000 expected).

The U.S. official data showed that housing starts posted at an annualized rate of 1.599 million units in February (1.500 million units expected).

Later today, initial jobless claims for the week ended March 14 (220,000 expected), and the Conference Board Leading Index for February (+0.1% on month expected) will be reported. The Commerce Department will report 4Q current account balance (108.5 billion dollars deficit expected). The Philadelphia Federal Reserve will post its Business Outlook Index for March (9.0 expected).

The U.S. dollar strengthened versus its major peers, with the ICE Dollar Index jumping 1.3% to a three-week high of 99.38. Later in the day, the European Commission will post final readings of February CPI (+1.2% on-year expected) and January trade balance (19.2 billion euros surplus expected).

During the U.S. session, the eyes will be on the U.S. Commerce Department, which is due to report February housing starts (1.5 million units expected) and building permits (1.5 million units expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today    

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD marked a day-low of 1.0802 before rebounding to close at 1.0962, down 0.3%. The European Central Bank announced a 750 billion-euro bond-buying program to counter the coronavirus impacts. ECB President Christine Lagarde said, “there are no limits” to their commitment to the euro.

The Trump administration announced that Trump administration is planning to give checks directly to Americans in the shape of a $1 trillion stimulus program. Moving ahead, the EUR/USD currency pair may return and possibly break below Tuesday’s low of 1.0955 if the stocks cheer the substantial monetary and fiscal stimulus.

After the announcement of stimulus, the ECB President Christine Lagarde showed a willingness to use all important tools to stop the negative impacts of the deadly virus. At the press time, the EUR/USD currency pair turned lower from 1.0980 to below 1.08 due to the strong haven bid around the dollar rose, producing big gains for the greenback against the bucket of currencies.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.0434
  • S2 1.0677
  • S3 1.0795

Pivot Point 1.092

  • R1 1.1038
  • R2 1.1163
  • R3 1.1406

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

On Thursday, the major currency pair EUR/USD continues to trade bearish as it as violated and closed below horizontal support becomes a resistance level of 1.0990. The EUR/USD is currently trading around 1.0970, and it’s forming a lower-lows pattern on the 4-hour chart, which mostly drives a continuation of a selling trend. 

At the moment, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.0890, essentially following the bearish bias. The EUR/USD is expected to find a hurdle around 1.0920, and beyond this, the pair has the potential to target the next resistance level of 1.1030. While the EUR/USD has robust odds of lingering bearish below 1.0920 to target 1.0805. On the daily chart, a violation of 1.0805 can extend the selling trend until 1.0670.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD plunged 3.5% to 1.1633, the weakest level since 1985, as U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s response to the coronavirus pandemic failed to convince investors. 

The GBP/USD pair slipped due to a stronger dollar after the U.S. official data showed that housing starts posted at an annualized rate of 1.599 million units in February (1.500 million units expected).

As per the latest report, the death losses rose to 99 on Wednesday vs. Tuesday’s 67, reporting a 48% jump. As of March 18, 2,626 people in the United Kingdom were tested for coronavirus. The test numbers have been increasing from just over 1,000 a day at the end of February, when testing started, to more than 6,000 per day by mid-March.

Looking forward, the investors will now keep their eyes on the global measures to control the negative impacts of the virus for taking the near-term direction. However, the greenback may keep benefiting from the same due to its safe-haven status.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.038
  • S2 1.1049
  • S3 1.1316

Pivot Point 1.1718

  • R1 1.1986
  • R2 1.2388
  • R3 1.3057

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD continues to encounter bloodshed in the wake stronger dollar and weakness in the GBP. The direct currency pair continues to drop for a second consecutive week, and so far, it’s has traded bearishly from 1.3000 level to 1.1540 level just in two weeks. 

On the weekly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has violated the descending triangle pattern, which supports it around the 1.2030 level. Below the 1.2030 level, the GBP/USD is expected to drop further until the next support level of 1.1245. Since the market is oversold, traders may see a bullish correction above 1.1245 level until 1.1885 or 1.2045 level, but then again, chances of selling will remain strong. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY extended its rally for a second straight session, climbing 0.6% to 108.38. During the Asian session, the USD/JPY currency pair hit the session high of 109.06 before the time of writing, representing 0.70% gains and continued its 3-day bullish streak near above the 108.50 after the latest downbeat data from Japan. As well as, broad-based USD strength also keeps the pair bullish. At the time of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 108.86 and consolidates in the range between the 107.89 – 109.55.

At the data front, Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in below 0.8% forecast on MoM to 0.4%, whereas the CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) slipped beneath 0.9% expectations to 0.6% for February.

Following the data, the BOJ minutes for the January monthly meeting announced further support for the Japanese central bank’s Quantitative Easing (Q.E.). As in result, the Japanese yen got another burden to carry, as the Japanese press pushes for government stimulus, which in turn offered additional support to the USD/JPY pair.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 104.02
  • S2 105.92
  • S3 107

Pivot Point 107.83

  • R1 108.9
  • R2 109.73
  • R3 111.63

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The stronger U.S. dollar has also driven the bullish trend in the USD/JPY currency pair, and it’s currently trading over 109. The indirect currency pair has also violated the double top resistance level of 107.950, and closing of candles above this level may drive further buying in the pair. 

On the 4 hour timeframe, the USD/JPY is still trading within an upward channel, which is likely to drive further buying in the pair. Therefore, the pair may find support at 108.100 level, and above this, the chances of buying remain strong until the next resistance level of 110. Let’s stay bullish above 108.250 today. 

All the best for today!