On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index rebounded 0.2% on the day to 97.37, snapping a four-day decline, supported by better-than-expected U.S. economic data. The Research firm Markit will publish February German Construction PMI.
The U.S. Commerce Department will post January factory orders (-0.1% on month expected) and final readings of durable goods orders (-0.2% on month expected). The Labor Department will report initial jobless claims in the week ended February 29 (215,000 expected).
Economic Events to Watch Today
EUR/USD – Daily Analysis
The EUR/USD retreated 0.3% to 1.1138, halting a four-day rally. The European Commission warned that France and Italy could fall into a technical recession, two-quarters of economic contraction, amid coronavirus impacts. On the other hand, official data showed that the eurozone’s retail sales grew 0.6% on month in January, and German retail sales were up 0.9%, both as expected.
If the risk-on sentiment continues to boost, the selling interest around the EUR could increase. At press time, major Asian indices like Japan’s Nikkei, South Korea’s Kospi, Hong Kong’s Hang, and the Shanghai Composite index are reporting notable gains. The S&P 500 futures, however, are shedding 0.90%.
If the OPEC meeting strengthens an oil price bounce, the risk sentiment will likely increase, pushing the EUR currency and other safe-haven currencies lower. The pair is currently sidelined just below 1.1140.
Besides this, the currency pair will likely take cues from the U.S. weekly unemployment claims, Challenger Job Cuts data for February, and the 4th-quarter Unit Labor Costs figure scheduled for release during the North American trading hours. The European data docket is thin.
Daily Support and Resistance
- S1 1.0955
- S2 1.1047
- S3 1.109
Pivot Point 1.1139
- R1 1.1182
- R2 1.1231
- R3 1.1323
EUR/USD– Trading Tips
On Tuesday, the EUR/USD is trading sideways around 1.1179. The EUR/USD may drop to complete the bearish retracement. On the lower side, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement is likely to support the EUR/USD at 1.1109, and violation of this level can drive more selling until 1.1085 which marks the 61.8% Fibonacci level. The RSI and MACD are in the buying zone but seems to take a bearish. The MACD’s histograms are becoming smaller on the buying side, which suggests the odds of selling in the EUR/USD. Consider taking buy trades above 1.1119.
GBP/USD– Daily Analysis
The GBP/USD rose 0.5% at 1.2873. The officials from the European Union and the United Kingdom continue to oppose each other in every phase of post-Brexit trade deal talks. The Fisheries matter is the key factor for the British negotiators, and they have given a warning to the deploy Navy to safeguard the waters from the bloc’s ships if no deal is agreed by June.
It is worth to mention that the Sky News spots former business secretary Andrea Leadsom while saying that the government’s previous willingness for a possible no-deal Brexit. Which
Att he coronavirus front, the deadly virus continues to spread outside China with California recently declaring a state of emergency. However, the global policymakers struggle to control the same, and it seems to have helped the risk-tone sentiment. As in result, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yields remain positive above 1%, whereas stocks in Asia are also positive by the press time.
The BOE Governor Mark Carney is scheduled to speak at University College London and will be key to watch for the U.K. central bank’s actions to control COVID-19 implications. However, the incoming Governor Andrew Bailey has already said that the BOE should wait for more clarity about the economic slowdown from the coronavirus outbreak before making any decision to cut interest rates ahead.
Daily Support and Resistance
- S1 1.2631
- S2 1.2734
- S3 1.28
Pivot Point 1.2837
- R1 1.2903
- R2 1.294
- R3 1.3043
GBP/USD– Trading Tip
The GBP/USD is trading with bullish bias after having violated the horizontal resistance level of 1.2885. As suggested earlier, the GBP/USD overall trading bias remains bullish, and it’s pretty much likely to go after the next resistance level of 1.3019.
The GBP/USD’s immediate support is likely to be found around 1.2870, and below this level, the GBP/USD may aim for the 1.2760 area. The MACD and RSI are in the buying zone, supporting the bullish bias for the GBP/USD. Let’s look for long positions above 1.2837 today.
USD/JPY – Daily Analysis
The USD/JPY currency pair failed to maintain its overnight bullish trend and reached the fresh lower end of its daily trading range near the 107.30 level because of the greenback weakness. The USD/JPY currency pair 107.34 and consolidates in the interval between 107.0 – 107.73.
As we already mentioned that the pair failed to maintain on the previous day’s recovery move from 5-month lows and faced some fresh supply near the 107.75 regions on Thursday in the wake of subdued U.S. dollar price action.
Moreover, the U.S. yields have recovered slightly from the lows seen after the U.S. Fed’s rate cut. The 2-year yield is currently trading at 0.68%, representing a seven basis point gain on the overnight low of 0.61%, and the 10-year yield has recovered to 0.98% from $0.91%.
As in result, the safe-haven demand for the yen has weakened in Asia. As we already mentioned that the USD/JPY pair is currently trading at 107.27, representing a 0.17% gain on the day, having hit a high of 107.52 a few minutes before press time.
Daily Support and Resistance
- S1 105.75
- S2 106.93
- S3 107.63
Pivot Point 108.1
- R1 108.8
- R2 109.28
- R3 110.46
USD/JPY – Trading Tips
The USD/JPY is trading at 107.250, staying mostly outside the tight trading range of 108.400 – 107.400. It’s mostly due to the weakness in the U.S. dollar and a slight safe-haven appeal, which is triggered in the wake of Coronavirus. The pair has recovered a bit to complete retracement until 107.650.
For now, the USD/JPY has formed a bearish series of Doji pattern over 107.013, which could trigger further selling if the 107.013 level gets violated. We need to pay attention to the USD/JPY as the closing of candlesticks below 107.013 level can provide us selling trade with a take profit of around 106.500 and 105.860.
All the best for today!