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Forex Risk Management

How Do I Know if My Risk Appetite is Reasonable?

Risk is something that is present in pretty much everything that we do when it comes to trading forex, each trade that we put on is a risk, each time we increase our lot sizes or trade a new currency pair, it is a risk, risks are everywhere. While risks are present, and there are ways to monitor and reduce the risks, there is one thing that we are not able to change, and that is our own tolerance or appetite for risks.

Risk tolerance is basically your ability to deal with risks, it is an emotional state where you are either tolerant of the risk, able to deal with it with a clear mind and an objective view, intolerance is where you are not able to handle it quite as well, it will cause you to stress, it will cause you anxiety and it can even cause you to place trades that you otherwise would not have.

Your risk appetite is about how much risk you actually want, for many wanting risks would seem like a strange thing to want, but for others, it is something that they get their buzz and thrill out of it. In fact, this lust for risk can cause people to trade too much, to trade too large and to trade at a level that puts their accounts at risk. For others with very little risk appetite, they may not want to trade at all once they have experienced the risks that are involved.

With that being said, how do you know whether your own appetite for risk is appropriate and reasonable? Firstly, if you are getting severe anxiety or stress from trading, you don’t really want to press that trade button due to worry that you may lose something then your risk tolerance and appetite is on the low side, if it is really bad, then this can be a sign that trading is simply not for you, there will be risks and to trade is to accept those risks. For some it is possible to work through it and to develop a better tolerance to the trades, for others it is simply not possible and so trading will simply be a stressful situation for you.

On the other end of the spectrum are those that like a little too much risk, they want to place huge trades, they want to be trading at all times regardless of their strategy or how the markets are. The more volatile the markets the more they will want to trade as the risk and rewards are both far higher. This can be a dangerous situation to be in as very little risk management will be put in place, these sorts of thrill-seekers will either become rich very quickly or lose everything in a matter of days, sometimes both, getting some wins, getting the confidence and then losing it due to risking too much.

Those are the two extremes when it comes to risk tolerance and appetite, what we need to remember is that there are in fact things that we can do to help maintain a safer trading environment. If of course, you are right in the middle of the tolerance and appetite levels, then you are in a great place when it comes to trading as you are able to tolerate the risks and are also not afraid to take a few.

So let’s assume that you are either high or low on the appetite level, what can we do to help? The first thing is to create a trading plan, within this plan you will have set out some rules, these rules are there for one important thing. They are there to ensure that you are in line with your plan and that your risks are limited. These rules will help someone with a low appetite for risk to understand that they are still in charge and that trading along these rules gives them the essence of safety, a way of controlling the risks that they are being put under.

For those that are on the high end, it will enable them to reign in the risks that they are taking. Trading to the rules will basically ensure that you are not putting on any additional trades that you shouldn’t be and that you are not placing trades that are simply too large for your account. Of course, it is up to the person whether they continue to follow it, but some discipline will enable you to manage your risks a little better.

Your risk management plan must also be in place. This plan sets out all of the risks that you will be putting yourself under, it will give you a good understanding of what risks there are and also how you will be reducing them. Ensure that you understand where your stop losses will be, what your risk to reward ratio is along other aspects of your trading. Much like mentioned above will enable you to maintain your risks and to help you stay at the right level. When we trade to the plan, we are making good trades, regardless of win or a loss, and with taking good trades we will ultimately profit at the end of the day. The issue of course is sticking to that plan, which is often easier said than done.

So what level of risk appetite is reasonable? There isn’t really one. There are some people who are in the middle which is perfect for them, but for many others, you are in a situation where you either like the risk or you hate it, but wherever you are on the line, you need to ensure that you have everything that you can in place in order to manage and reduce the risks that you are putting your account under. Stick to those plans and you will be in a great situation.

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Forex Basics

Starting to Live On Your Forex Income

It is very common for traders to dream of obtaining financial freedom through online Forex trading. No more boring jobs, no more bosses, no more wasted administration time, meaningless emails, and endless meetings. Is it a realistic ambition? If so, how can it be achieved? In this article, I will try to comment on my own experience and try to give you an idea of the challenges you will undoubtedly face if you plan to make a living in the currency market. Forewarned is worth two.

How Much Money Can You Make With Forex Trading?

This is the first question that people always ask. There’s a simple answer: no one knows! No matter how expert in foreign exchange you are, you cannot control the market. You can be so good that you usually have a winning month and each year is considered a winning year. However, the exact amount you make depends on what happens in the market, and the market cannot be predicted with certainty. For example, look at the main currency pairs in the first 10 months or so of 2012. The market was extremely flat. Even if you weren’t negotiating trends, it was hard to be profitable using a forex strategy. Later, in the final part of that year, there was a huge bearish movement in the Japanese yen that gave traders the opportunity to make a lot of money easily. The point is that financial markets are unpredictable; there may be several months of drought followed by a huge downpour of opportunities to benefit.

A sensible approach to estimating what you can reasonably expect before starting trading is to calculate in terms of probabilities. For example, in 20% of the months, it expects to make 5% profit, in 10% of the months 7% profit, etc.

For the calculation of these probabilities, you should analyze backward by measuring your average commercial return, draw-down and initial capital, and then calculate an average expectation of trade; that is to say, the amount of profit or loss that you will normally get per transaction.

How to Calculate Your Performance

The first point to start is the amount of seed money you have to trade. It is very important to understand that the more money you risk, the less money you have, and the more money you need to pay your bills, the harder things are going to get. Even if it’s all the same on paper, the day-to-day experience of online trading as a livelihood is very hard psychologically for almost everyone, especially at first. There is a huge difference between trading with money you can afford to lose, trying to earn enough money to afford luxury items, you risk your life’s savings by trying to generate income to pay bills.

You should have a very clear idea of your typical commercial performance over the full range of market conditions as if you had been operating continuously for years. One of the best systems to do this is to have a trading simulator installed and/or a Forex strategy simulator software to simulate many years of exchange operations and ideally hundreds of operations. You can then have a good statistical basis on the likely range of returns that you can achieve in a month. Of course, proving this over a long period of live trading is a superior method for determining your trading expectations. By all means, watch Forex signals for business ideas, but don’t rely on them blindly.

Once you have these numbers, you must consider the amount of draw-down that you will be able to tolerate. From here, you can determine the money handling and leverage you’re going to use, and now you can finally calculate the likely range of cash income (and losses) you’re likely to experiment in a typical month. Will it be more than enough to satisfy your financial commitments? You will be able to weather the bad times without going into debt? Don’t forget that your actual performance will probably not be as good as your performance in the simulator, this is because making decisions over long periods of time with real money at risk is more difficult than simulated trading. Remember that the vast majority of retail Forex traders are not profitable, so you have to be at the top of your game.

A very important factor not yet covered is the psychological stress of online trading for a living. It is crucial in commercial success not to become emotional about the results of each operation. When you need good results to pay your bills by the end of the month, maintaining that attitude becomes very difficult. Your “trade psychology” is very important to get it right. A perfectly smooth equity curve gives less stress but is very difficult to achieve, so you will probably have to find a way to cope with the sudden falls of the curve without losing your calm.

A Realistic Plan for Second Income and Capital Growth

If you really want to trade Forex for a living, I strongly recommend that you consider a plan that will allow you to transition to this gradually. You may believe that you will do much better when you can devote all your energies to work and live on the operations of change, but this may not be the case

You may be able to automate your trading, at least in part, by using a Forex robot, say for trading entries. You can then decide on commercial departures every few hours or even on a daily basis. This way you can keep your income or primary salary and that, added to what you can do about exchange operations will look a lot like what you would do if you devoted yourself to this activity every minute of your day.

It is a very good idea to have both a significant stable income and a reasonably long history of profitable trading. What it can do is to grow its capital and gradually increase risk by increasing leverage. So, little by little you’ll get used to pressure and stress.

If you move forward this way, you should be able to earn enough money to quit that job you hate within two or three years of “transition” commercial success. It is tempting to think that it will become much more profitable if you dedicate yourself to this full time and without distractions, but many traders have discovered that the opposite is the case. Trading for capital gains is much easier than doing it to pay the monthly bills.

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Forex Basics

Everything You Need to Know About Islamic Forex Accounts

There are many Forex brokers that offer today the option to open an Islamic account. To understand how these accounts work, you first need to understand the principles of Sharia (Islamic Law) and how it is applied in a compatible way to banking and finance. Sharia laws do not allow the acceptance of interest for monetary loans (known as riba or usury) if the payments are fixed or floating.

In 2009, there were more than 400 banks and 300 investment funds worldwide that were compliant with Islamic principles. As of 2014, Sharia-compliant financial institutions accounted for approximately 1% of the world’s total assets, totaling about $2 trillion in funds. Not all Muslims follow the laws of Sharia. According to the well-known accounting firm Ernst & Young, Islamic banking represents only a fraction of Muslims’ banking assets, but has been growing at an annual rate of 17,6% between 2009 and 2013, faster than bank assets as a whole and is expected to grow by an average of 19.7% per year until 2018.

Unlike conventional banking, Islam prohibits simply lending money with interest, so specific Islamic rules have been established in transactions to prevent this from happening. The fundamental principle of Islamic banking is based on risk-sharing, which is a component of the risk transfer view in conventional banking. Islamic banking employs concepts such as custody, profit sharing, cost pluses, and leasing.

The Islamic Accounts

Under normal commercial conditions, commodity and foreign exchange transactions are executed on the spot market throughout the day. At 17:00 New York time, all open positions will be renewed within the next 24 hours, and interest generated daily will be added to the company’s accounts every day. The broker can then pay the interest or collect the customer’s account to cover what is considered rollover fees. For traders holding overnight positions, rollovers can have a significant impact on the profitability of an account.

In an Islamic narrative, the concepts are different. This is because there should be no interest (Riba) for the entire duration of the Islamic account contract, any open transaction which at the end of the trading day automatically passes through the rollover poses a problem for those who follow Islamic Law because such transactions are considered usury. Therefore, conventional rollovers are simply not allowed.

Over the years, Islamic rules have been slightly adjusted to allow Muslims to participate in currency markets, without violating Sharia law. Most brokers now offer No-Swap accounts that can be used under certain conditions in order to allow traders, either trade as much as their money allows or take a loan from the broker on the condition that the institution does not receive any interest on the loan. In most cases, no commission or interest is charged on contracts that last more than 24 hours, and zero interest on the rollover is a constant.

The question of whether Forex trading is permissible under Islamic law is a difficult question to answer conclusively. Although the Islamic authorities certainly agree that Forex trading under certain conditions is halal (i.e., permissible under Islamic law), there is some controversy as to exactly what conditions. Let us examine the topics one by one after knowing the saying on this subject by the prophet Mohammed (peace be upon him):

“Silver for silver, gold for gold, barley for barley, wheat for wheat, dates for dates, salt for salt, as for equals, equals for, hand to hand. If guys are different then sell whatever you want, as long as it’s hand-to-hand.”

So, is there halal currency trading? Is it halal forex or haram?

Forex Trading – Halal or Haram Fatwa

Of course, as we have already mentioned, usury is completely prohibited in Islam and is broadly defined. This implies that any type of agreement or contract involving an element of interest (riba) is not permissible under Islamic law. For some time, retail Forex brokers reflected the market policy of charging or paying the trader the interest differential between the two participants of any currency pair whose transaction remained open overnight. Finally, almost all Forex brokers responded to market forces (and the demands of Islamic traders) by becoming “Islamic Forex brokers” and offering “Islamic Forex accounts” that operate without standard interest payments. You could ask how they did it and maintained the profitability of their trades.

This was achieved through increased commissions on spot forex trades, and this practice has become the hallmark of almost all Islamic Forex brokers. Possibly, this in itself is just a component of camouflaged interest, and if you take this view, it makes trading Forex problematic under Islamic law. This interesting problem also discourages any possibility of trading with Forex, as on all occasions there is an element of interest involved in these transactions. However, the “regular” forex trading offered by Forex brokers, without payments or one-day interest charges, could remove the hurdle of riba.

What Islam Says About Online Forex Trading

After having reduced the problem to one of spot trading Forex and assuming that there is no element of interest is considered to be involved, we move on to the next issue. It seems to be permissible only “as long as the exchange is hand-to-hand”. So very clearly, the prophet Mohammed (peace be upon him) took into account the exchanges of different kinds of goods to be made between two parties, recognizing that this was a natural and fair aspect of trading.

The question here is what is considered “hand-to-hand”. In the old days, of course, there were no computers or phones, so the look of making a face-to-face (or hand-to-hand) deal was not a big question. In fact, it could be said to be natural and well accepted for an agreement made between two different parties. In current times, it can be argued that as far as Forex trading is concerned, the agreement is made between a Forex broker and a trader, so it would be qualified under the definition of two different parties, which would be admissible under Islamic law.

A widely recognized stipulation is that the actual exchange must take place during the same “session” in which the contract is made, that is, the transactions must be concluded more or less immediately. We seem to be on solid ground here, as when a trade is done with a Forex broker, which takes effect immediately. Curiously, this might suggest that all non-market trades (i.e., stop or limit orders) are haram!

This is where we come up with the biggest hurdle in trying to answer the question “Is Forex halal or haram?” In general, Forex traders do not expect to take real delivery of the currency they are “buying”, and never actually the currency itself they are “selling. They’re simply speculating that one’s value will go up and another’s value will go down.

Is such speculation permissible under Islamic law? This is a question that is not easy to answer and may be one that must be discussed with its own religious leader rather than being decided based on an Internet article. However, we have researched the topic thoroughly and will outline some points of thought below.

We can begin by saying that Islam recognizes that almost all adults focus their efforts to improve their financial investments and that life involves a great element of uncertainty. In life, we face many choices, the outcome of which is not clear, and we strive to use intelligence and the ability to choose the available option that will produce the higher result. However, we must continue to say that gambling is strictly prohibited by Islamic law, even as a form of recreation or entertainment when it is done with small funds that the player can be said to be able to afford to lose.

By measuring these two competing components, it can be concluded that it is the system of speculation that makes the difference. One author has thoroughly examined the topic and has categorically stated that speculation based on fundamental analysis is accepted, but the technical analysis is not permissible; and there is interesting reasoning: Placing operations based on technical analysis essentially amounts to betting on the bets of others and Relying on the behavior of the crowd to influence their speculation is steeped in the essence of the game, which is prohibited by Islamic law.

However, this argument can certainly be criticised as spurious in relation to market realities. To take an example, it is a speculator who has the belief that the US dollar will rise against its euros because of the economic fundamentals required to simply trade immediately, and forbidden to take any action for time trading entry to a psychologically opportune time?

Once you have done your research carefully, you can decide whether the Islamic forex accounts are right for you. A stronger argument might be that a Muslim has no business speculating on foreign exchange markets unless he or she has a firm foundation to anticipate success. This clearly means that trades must involve either some component of technical or fundamental analysis in which the trader really has a strong reason to believe.

An example could be, following trends that have an academically established track record as a cost-effective method of trading in financial liquidity Markets and trading these trends using Islamic brokers FX.

A trader can argue that a strong technical trend is easier to understand – and also likely to have an underlying reason (though invisible) behind it – a classic fundamental economic outlook that could be discussed by professional economists.

Creating a Muslim Forex Account

There is virtually no doubt that Forex trading is permissible in Islam, as long as there is no element of interest, it is done hand in hand (although this phrase can be translated in many ways), and that the exchanger has a valid reason to anticipate a probable profit based on an analysis that is not based on the psychology of the game. On a solid basis, Islamic Forex brokers can be hired for trading, which should at least possibly eliminate all riba challenges. As we have already analyzed, there are certainly gray areas within this rating that must be thoroughly investigated in good faith and conscience by anyone who wishes to start halal Forex trading with a Muslim Forex account.

Revenue from the Spread

So how does a broker win on Islamic accounts? Broker income comes strictly from spreads, which is the difference between Ask and Bid prices in a currency pair. Many brokers that offer No-Swaps accounts increase the spreads on these accounts or request an additional commission or charge so, at the end of the day, it is like paying interest earned in night positions, but very often at a higher pace.

Other brokers offer the Islamic account without commission or additional charge and maintain the same spread as in swap accounts. There are also brokers who usually offer additional benefits for Hibah-shaped No-Swap accounts. Hibah is donations or gifts given voluntarily; for this reason, the broker does allow its Muslim customers to donate a part of their profits to charity.

Conclusion

It should be emphasized that, although we have investigated the subject of Islamic trading and its validity within Islamic law in length, we are in no way trying to provide religious guidance to you, the readers of this article, or their acquaintances. As evidenced by the research presented here, there are certainly many people who believe that, under the right circumstances, Islamic currency trading is allowed. But, there may be some who are not comfortable using these solutions, and this is a completely valid approach as well.

If you are excited to further investigate this issue or consider how each Forex broker implements their Muslim Forex system, our recommendation is to evaluate the leading Islamic Forex brokers and talk to their commercial partners if you have any questions, questions, or concerns about how their practices relate to Islamic law. A solid and respectable Forex broker must have concrete and accurate answers and will make you feel comfortable, not uncomfortable.

With the expansion of the Muslim community into business, Forex brokers are doing their best to accommodate Islamic accounts. Not all brokers have gotten on the cart for the moment, but if they want to stay competitive they will have to add this feature to their offers.

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Forex Basics

Should You Be Spending Your Valuable Time in Online Forex Communities?

There are a  lot of trading communities out there, some of them offer fantastic places to get to know other traders while some of them can be a little on the toxic side, things that you really don’t want to get involved in. We are going to be looking at whether or not you should be spending some of your time in the online communities and the advantages and disadvantages that they may bring to you and your trading.

Social Interaction

One of the major advantages of being part of a trading community is that it is a source of social interaction. Those that have been trading for any period of time will be able to tell you that trading is quite a lonely endeavor. You are by yourself in front of your trading terminal, and that is it. It takes your time away from things like your family and your friends. So many people will begin to feel quite lonely. The trading communities offer an outlet for you to get back in touch with people and people who have the same interest as you which is a fantastic thing. It will help you feel more involved and will help prevent you from suffering from some of the psychological issues that can come with trading by yourself.

Get Trading Ideas

Trading communities can be a fantastic source of information when it comes to trading ideas. A lot of the communities have dedicated places within them where people can talk about and discuss the different trading ideas that they are having. This can either give you some inspiration for your own trade ideas, or it can be a way of getting complete trades from people that you have spoken to and that you know are only putting out good signals. Use the ideas that you find to broaden your own view of the markets, it may well help you look at your strategy from a different point of view which would, in turn, help you to develop your own strategy better.

Feedback On Your Ideas

Another great thing that communities provide is feedback on your own trading ideas. You can post up what your trade idea is, and what you are thinking of trading. The community will then give you some feedback, perfect for putting something up before you place the trade as others will often see flaws in what you have done (if there are any) or they can offer some suggestions to make it better, it can also be an added confirmation of your trade. Use the communities to get as much feedback as you can, whether you listen to it is another matter but getting the feedback is a good start.

Learn About Trends

More often than not, someone in the community will be posting up when different trends are starting or potentially ending, they will do all of the analysis for you, saving you a lot of money. It is a good way of finding out what potential trends are available and are coming up that you can trade.

News Analysis

Along with trend analysis, a community will also offer you a great way to get free analysis from multiple different viewpoints about the upcoming or past news events including things on the economic calendar. Learn what effects it may have on the markets or what it had done in previous years. Sometimes it can take a long time to analyse all the markets, so seeing what other people have done can save a lot of money. Not to mention the fact that the news can be quite confusing, you may not understand what it all actually means, so you could use the communities as a way of working out what the news actually means and what it will potentially do to the markets.

False Rumours

There are however downsides to the communities, one of those things is false rumours. You need to be on the lookout for these. Traders love rumours, and they love to spread them without actually looking into them. Much like many things in life people love to spread gossip and rumours, regardless of what it is or if they actually know anything about it. The same happens with trading, someone somewhere on the internet posts about something, others then spread it. These end up in the trading community and often have large discussions about it, you need to take care. Do not believe everything that you read, rumours are rumours, there is no solid information behind them and so you should not base your trades on what you have seen people posting, not without any proof or evidence anyway.

Scams

There are a lot of scams out there and a lot that are related to forex and trading. You always need to be vigilant as the trading communities also have them there. A lot of the good communities are doing a good job of preventing them from posting, but they still manage to squeeze through the gaps. Just like anywhere else, if anyone is posting things that are too good to be true, they probably are, if they are asking for a tie to do with money avoid it at all costs, and do not share any account details with anyone. Scams are out there and they are a part of the communities, so keep an eye out for them.

Exaggerated Egos

People love to make out that they are better than they are. The majority of traders lose, yet you will see people posting about how great they are doing, or how they just bought their 15th Ferrari. You need to be cautious of people posting about how well they are doing, or posting up fantastic results. People love to exaggerate and to make themselves look a little better than they actually are.

Those are some of the pros and cons that come with different trading communities, they can be a fantastic way to get to know new traders or to get new trading ideas as well as feedback on your own ideas. There are some negatives also, the people there are not always the nicest. They can try and scam and they can exaggerate results, overall it is a good idea to try and get involved in one, the worst that will happen is that you do not like them and you can stop visiting, but the best thing is that you find a new place to call your trading home and you become a part of the community.

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Forex Basic Strategies

Is There Really a 100% Winning Strategy in Forex?

The short answer to this question is simply, no, there is not a 100% winning strategy, the only way that you can avoid losing is to simply not trade at all. It is actually a good thing that there isn’t a 100% winning strategy as if there was, there would be no trading as everyone would be going for the same thing. It is simply impossible for there to be a 10% winning strategy, if there was then trading would not exist, so the fact that reading has been around for so long is testament to the fact that you cannot win all the time, but surely there are some strategies that are almost right all the time? Again no, each strategy has its merits and its downsides, the person trading it has an effect, and more. We are going to be looking at why there isn’t a 100% winning strategy and also why there never will be one.

Let’s get the risk out the way straight off the bat, if you are planning on having a profit with every single trade that you make, then it would be a better and much more profitable idea to not trade at all. As soon as you plan to profit with every single trade, you are basically throwing any sort of risk management out the window and are technically risking the entire account balance with each and every trade. This is simply due to the fact that you will be reluctant to close any trades down when they are in the red, waiting for them to return, if they do not return then you will eventually lose your account. So do not go into trading with any sort of strategy and think that you will have each trade come back as a profit, losses are inevitable and they are a part of trading.

You need to accept that there will be losses and you also need to plan for them, planning for losses may sound pretty negative, but it is in fact one of the most positive things that you can do as a trader. Planning for losses also means that you will be minimising them, a planned loss will cause you to lose a certain amount of your account, say 1$% or 2% of it with each trade, an unplanned loss could be 10% or 20%. You need to plan the maximum loss of each trade, yes you will be making losses, but they are controlled and you can decide before even placing the trade, the maximum amount that you are able to lose on it, one of the primary ways that we stay profitable is by doing this, and we can technically be profitable with more losses than wins.

You may have seen people advertising their strategies as a guaranteed win or as a strategy that has a 100% winning rate, but there are a number of different factors and reasons as to why this is not the case. Simply put, no strategy can account for all market conditions and no strategy can account for natural disasters or certain news events. If the markets moved like the ocean, simply moving up and down in a predictable manner then yes, there probably would be a strategy that could win 100% of the time, the problem is that this is not how the markets move and work. Some strategies work for a few days, others for a few weeks, and others even a year, but at some point, the markets will do something that is unexpected and this will cause the strategy to start to lose.

Forex is partly about planning, but it is also about adapting, when the markets move with a natural disaster or simply go against expectations and trend the other way, you are required to adapt, each strategy has been set up for a particular scenario and market condition, as soon as that changed, if the strategy is left as it is then it will incur losses, you need to be able to adapt it to better suit the new and changing conditions. Of course, you will still be expected to take losses, especially when experimenting with changes, although that is what demo accounts are for.

So while there is not a strategy that will get you a 100% win rate, there are some things that you can do to help improve those odds or at least to improve the chances of you being a profitable trader. To start, you need to manage your money, the losses that you will take need to be managed and they need to be controlled. You need to have a set risk management plan in place that will detail the maximum loss of each trade as well as your risk to reward ratio, so you can ensure that you are more likely to remain profitable overall. The traders that do really well also have multiple strategies that they use, if you stick to one, the markets will eventually turn into a situation where you cannot trade properly with the strategy. Due to this, having multiple different strategies available for you to trade with will enable you to trade better in different conditions and be more profitable in multiple different market scenarios.

If you try to go for a 10% strategy it will only end in disaster, the first thing that will start to disappear is your account balance or equity, as trades start to fall into the red and you refuse to close them. The second thing that will start to deteriorate is your psychology, you will begin to become stressed, you may even become greedy or overconfident depending on how the trading has been going. What is important to understand is that as you try for this 100% win rate, you will begin to really feel the strain of trading, something that can be avoided by cutting losses early on, it helps to take away the stress of holding and seeing red trades as well as protecting your capital. Many traders who go for a 100% strategy and end up losing, will simply deposit more and try again, resulting in even further losses, so the best thing to do would be to accept that there will be losses from the get-go.

To summarize what we have spoken about, the markets simply do not allow for a strategy to be a 100% winning strategy, it just won’t happen, things are constantly changing and most strategies are set up for a single market condition, you should also not leave trades in the red and close them early in order to protect your own balance and capital. So don’t go out there looking for the perfect strategy, instead look for a number of different ones that can be used to help you trade in multiple different conditions, and most importantly, expect losses.

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Forex Basic Strategies

These Are Widely Viewed As the Most Powerful Forex Strategies

Any novice in currency trading will soon find out that there are a lot of different currency trading strategies. Therefore, any novice trader will always wonder, what is the best strategy for currency trading? Any foreign exchange trader wants to know which trading strategy should be selected (or created) for the most profitable trade. Indeed, much will depend on the type of trade you prefer, as some strategies are best in short-term trading, swing trading or currency scalping or day trading or positional trading. Certain strategies may be adapted to a day trader or long-term investor. This article explains three currency trading systems that have proven to be working in financial markets.

Number 3: Business Strategy of Trend Line Break

This is one of the oldest currency strategies that is based on trend reversal. The strategy indicates depending on price movements that a particular price level where the current trend will be reversed. This strategy also employs levels of resilience and support, and I understand that it is correct for all assets and all investors, ranging from currency pairs to CFDs or commodity stocks.

Well, let’s see how you can open positions to buy and sell with this strategy:

Find a clear trend and draw the trend line along with its highs/lows. We just need a single line that will break in case of a trend reversal. In the bearish trend, we need the resistance line (red), and in the bullish trend, we need the support line (blue);

Now, we have to wait until the market moves for the price chart to break this trend line. Only the moment when the price breaks and crosses the line is necessary for us to have a negotiating signal;

If the bearish trend breaks, it will be followed by a bullish trend, and so, let’s go into a buying operation (Buy). If there is an upward trend breakdown, the price will be reversed downwards and we will enter into a sale transaction (Sell);

You must enter a purchase transaction when the 2 main conditions are met: the price has been broken through the resistance level (red line), and the price reached the level of the most recent peak of the broken down bearish trend (level of purchase);

A sale transaction is introduced when the 2 main conditions for sale are met: the price has been broken through the support level (blue line), and the price reached the level of the most recent lowest of the decomposed bullish trend (sales level);

By the time the two conditions are met, we can already open a selling or buying position immediately if the price has reached the level we have discussed in steps 4 and 5;

A take profit is set at the maximum/minimum of the previous trend before the low/high where we open a position (Take Buy/Sell);

A stop loss is put on the low/high of the previously broken trend (Stop Buy / Sell);

As you see, this is a simple and cost-effective currency trading strategy that can be used at any period of time and provide a sufficient level of signal accuracy. Statistically, the benefit/loss ratio is approximately 65/35.

Number 2: Three EMA Rupture Strategy

This strategy is one of the basic strategies of the indicator and, like the previous ones, is quite simple and applies the principle of a trend reversal. This is a currency indicator strategy, so you will need to attach three moving averages to the chart.

Well, let’s see how you get into trading according to this trading system.

Place three EMA on the price chart. For convenience, they should be in different colors. In the first EMA, the displacement is -2 and the period is 21. In the second EMA, the displacement is -3 and the period is 14. The in the third EMA displacement is -4 and the period is 9;

Therefore, the blue EMA will be slowed down and when satisfied by other faster EMAs, input signals will be delivered;

A selling sign appears when the green EMA breaks through the red from above and the two lines cross the blue line from above (Sell 1,3,5);

A buy sign is sent when the green and red Mas cross the blue from below, and the red must be crossed by the green MA from below (Buy); The strategy does not suggest particular levels to put a Take Profit and Stop Loss, so, you leave the transaction depending on the market situation, you should be very careful to keep risk management under control;

You should close the position (with a profit or with a loss) when the green and red EMAs cross each other back in the opposite direction after they have entered the trade;

As you can see, this Forex trading strategy is also very simple. A simple average indicator provides clear signals with a profit/loss ratio of approximately 70/30.

Number 1: Commercial Strategy Based on Triangle Pattern Break

I assure you that this is one of the most optimal currency strategies. When you operate with this strategy in currency markets, at least know the main ideas of technical analysis, because you will need to find a triangle pattern on the price chart and mark your legs (limits) with trend lines, which are the levels of support and resistance ( blue lines). The triangle looks like a narrow side channel.

Well, let’s see how you enter operations based on the signals of this commercial strategy:

This strategy hardly offers signals to enter the market at the current price, it suggests the use of pending orders, purchase limit or sale limit order;

When you have already found a triangle pattern, you can start placing pending orders. You must place the order at the price level that will indicate that the price has broken down one of the pattern trend lines;

A purchase limit must be set to the maximum before the pattern resistance line break (buy 1). If a new high arises, the limit order must move a lower high (Buy 2), and it does so until the resistance line is broken;

A Sell Limit order is placed at the minimum before the break in the support level of the pattern (Sell 1). If a new bass emerges, you must move the pending order to the next minimum, and this will happen until the support line passes through;

When one of the pending orders works, you put a Take Profit at the maximum (if you buy) or at the bottom (if you sell) of the pattern;

A stop-loss will be set to the contrary end (low/high) relative to the end that entered an operation. For example, for a sale transaction (sell 2), a stop loss is set at the level of a possible trade purchase Buy 2);

This business strategy is a bit more complex and needs you to have experience in detecting a triangle formation in the price chart, but provides greater trading opportunities. Complexity is compensated with the high accuracy of trading signals with a profit/loss ratio of approximately 85/15.

So, now you know the three best currency strategies that any forex trader should try. We recommend that you test them out on a demo account for a while in order to get the hang of them first. After that is done, feel free to move to a live trading platform and start collecting your profits!

Categories
Forex Basics

10 Books That Can Definitely Make You A Better Trader

What’s the best trading book? This answer will depend on where you are and where you want to go deeper, whether you are starting, whether you have experience, whether you are looking for a more long-term or short-term approach.

If you are reading this article you will surely be looking for a book that can help you as a trader. There are good books about trading, some focus on the technical part, and others do it more in experiences.

I have made a list of the trading books that have brought me the most and that I think they can bring to you the most. Something like the trader’s library. Surely some of these books you didn’t know, how is this possible? If you do a quick search, most of the books you’re going to find are loaded with aspirational messages and smoke. I tell you that, as you know, my approach is quantitative and this can be seen only by looking at the books I have chosen, but I recommend to you what has served me and helped me on my way.

The ranking is divided by levels so you can choose the one that best suits your level. Although it may seem that they all deal with the same topics, what makes the difference is the focus of each of them. There really are a lot of pearls and gold nuggets. Some of these books are only available in English but are usually fairly easy to read with terms similar to Spanish in some cases.

When you start, what you read can mark you for better or worse. That’s why you won’t see any titles in all these books that are kind of “how to get your first million in 30 days”. These books are the ones I think can really bring you value and a good basis to start with realism:

Quantitative Trading Initiation Guide – Martí Castany

This book has been published recently and as its name suggests it is a very complete and basic guide if you are starting in quantitative or algorithmic trading. I have recently recommended it when you ask me because it makes a good review of all the basic concepts and explains the day-to-day of a quantitative trader (necessary equipment, programs, etc.).

Martí Castany is the author and has been able to condense the information very well and make its reading very enjoyable. It’s not a long book and you can read it in no time. I especially like the realistic approach it gives to trading as a business.

The New Life of Trading – Alexander Elder

This is one of the best-known and recommended books, especially the previous version. This is a new one that has recently come out. There is a lot of interest in psychological factors and emotions within trading and relates it to technical analysis and risk management. It deals with issues as important as they are basic.

In this book, you won’t find backtest or operational statistics, as Alexander Elder is constantly relying on technical analysis for trading and manual trading. Recommended if you’re starting out.

Be Successful in Trading (Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom) – Van K Tharp

This book focuses on the aspects that the author considers to be important to create a good trading system. He constantly points out that input is only a small part of the strategy and explains how outputs and stop-loss affect their results.

The strengths it deals with are money management (position size) and the psychology to succeed in trading. There are two versions: “Trade your way to financial freedom” (in English) and “Being successful in trading” (in Spanish).

Now yes, we get into trouble. If you master the basics of trading and want more chicha, these books can help you a lot:

Quantitative Trading Strategies – Lars Kestner

This is one of the books I liked the most in my day. Although I might have qualified it as uninitiated, I think it can also contribute to people with experience. Lars Kestner talks about basics yes, but also about the types of trading strategies in detail and following order according to their behavior (trends, reversion to the average, and with price patterns).

In this book, you will also find system evaluations, their optimization, and risk management (a classic, as you will see in most). I read it in English and I did not find it in Spanish, but if you find this or any other translated, write it to me in the comments and I can add it.

Quantitative Trading Systems- Howard Bandy

Howard Bandy is one of the best authors on quantitative trading today. He writes in a very simple and enjoyable way. In this book, he explains what quantitative analysis is, how to treat data, interpret different ratios, create detailed strategies, analyze or test systems.

The book is quite complete and every concept is explained in detail. Of course, the strategies are done by the author on the Amibroker platform. Even so, the concepts and explanations do not change and are general.

Cybernetic Trading Strategies – Murray Ruggiero

Murray Ruggiero is for me a reference in the creation and development of trading systems. In this book, he touches on classic topics such as technical analysis and more advanced ones (neural networks, fuzzy logic, genetic algorithms) to demonstrate the power of trading systems based on computation. It is the common idea of the book, to make us see that with a computer we have many tools and power to do incredible things.

It is a book that is worth it for the range of topics it deals with and how it treats them, as they are accompanied by examples and practical cases that will make you understand everything better.

Building Reliable Trading Systems – Keith Fitschen

Keith Fitschen is another author I quite admire. He gives a different perspective and a twist to the creation of systems in a traditional way. In this book what he does is that he proposes a method to build and test systems in an alternative way to avoid our worst enemy: over-optimization. This method is called BRAC (“Build, Rebuild, and Compare”).

In addition, to do all this in a practical and visual way, he constantly compares two totally different trading systems that he is modifying throughout the chapters.

Technical Analysis Based on Statistics (Evidence-Based Technical Analysis) – David Aronson

The main objective of this book will be able to demonstrate the effectiveness of technical analysis with numbers. What really works and what doesn’t objectively. It has a first theoretical part and a second part where it makes the demonstrations (I warn you that it can become denser).

Although it was written in 2007, it develops very well how to statistically measure the reliability of a trading system. It deals with concepts like statistical analysis, data mining, and techniques for analyzing information, but it’s nothing basic. Its author is David Aronson.

Quantitative Trading – Ernest Chan

This is one of the first books that read about quantitative trading. It brings interesting ideas about statistical arbitration. It develops the concept of seasonality and generates a quite original mental framework.

The systems that Ernest Chan usually proposes are quite theoretical and are not easy to implement. Still, you can get a lot of ideas from everything you transmit. It also talks about risk, backtesting, cointegration, correlation, and many concepts that are important.

[Extra]: Books that can help you in your trading

Now we’re going with books that, although not trading, can help you improve it. How is this possible? Because they deal with topics that are perfectly transferable to the world of investment and trading.

Principles – Ray Dalio

Ray Dalio is one of the people who has inspired me the most. I found this book brutal, as the title indicates, it reflects principles not only at the working level but as a philosophy of life. Open-mindedness, transparency, and the ability to stand up are some of the messages it transmits and teaches. He also defends the union algorithms and people to work with and explains how he performs it.

In the book, Ray Dalio constantly shares experiences and situations that make his reading quite enjoyable, especially in the early part of life. If you didn’t know him, he’s the founder of Bridgewater, the world’s largest hedge fund.

Antifragile – Nassin Taleb

Nassin Taleb has become quite popular in recent years and you probably know him because he has other very good books like, “The Black Swan” which develops the idea that it is positive or preferable to stress something constantly to not do and when an unlikely event happens it will take everything ahead. The concept of robustness is important in trading.

It basically tells us that anything that is not exposed to that fragility will not thrive and will end up incurring greater risk. It gives many examples of the day-to-day that will make you reflect.

I know there are very good stock market books that can be more general or focus on other areas such as fundamentals, value, or finance that you may have missed, but I have selected only those that I find interesting in trading.

Categories
Forex Basic Strategies

How to Become a Pro At Averaging Down

I have seen in several forums that many investors practice the risky sport of averaging down. This strategy is nothing more than investing more money every time the stock/ ETF/ Fund, etc goes down, so we get a reduction in the initial cost by buying more shares at lower prices. 

This strategy has several problems…

– Each time we average to lower the average cost we add more money, therefore we add more risk.

– “Money Management” or money management strategy is a martingale (I buy when I lose, that is when I lose). This strategy is perfect when our capital to invest is infinite, which is not very likely.

– It is not recommended unless you know how to do it, because if you do not do the strategy well or do not choose the underlying well, the losses can be very painful.

– We are invested in a broad ETF (there are many companies and good ones) and the ETF has downward swings because of the feeling of the market, and not because of the quality of the companies that compose it, so it is an inefficiency that we could take advantage of if we have liquidity.

– Exactly the same as the previous point but with an individual company. Here I have to say that you do not do it, do not lower your average in individual companies, unless you know how to read a balance sheet and trust very much in your judgment that the company is good and will continue to make profits.

If you still want to average down we’ll see how we can do it. The example I am going to give with a company, and this example can be extrapolated to an index. The company XZY is a large company, what’s more, I would say it is a very large company, with annual dividend increases of around 7% on average, improved margins has an impeccable balance sheet, etc, etc, etc. Ultimately a really good company with very little chance of going into losses, although this is never 100% reliable.

Once we know that the company is very good and its balance sheet is difficult to get worse enough we want to enter it to take advantage of its current price and be able to get quite good returns. The intrinsic value of the stock is €100, and it is currently listed at €60, so it is trading at a 40% discount. I think it’s enough of a discount to go in and have a good long-term return.

I have 10,000€ to invest in the value, and at 60€ I will buy 100 shares of the company, so I will invest 6,000€ initially. Now, because of the current market situation, because of the phase of the cycle in which we are, because the political situation of the country is this or that, etc… it is likely that the market will punish the quotation and we will see it below, even though it is an incredibly good company, which gives us the possibility to buy more shares (more risk) in exchange for lowering the average cost (more profitability) and when quoted at prices close to its intrinsic value, get a few more points of profitability.

Then let’s try to figure out what a super price would be. The super-price is the price at which the company is a very clear investment opportunity and will give us really good long-term returns. For our example I estimate that a super-price for the company is 40€ per share, that is, we shouldn’t care if it goes any lower, because at the price I buy the company, earns enough so that the money invested in it has all the possible guarantees of getting the full return on my investment plus high returns.

At this point, I have 4,000€ in liquidity and a difference of 20€ between the current price of the stock and my super-price. Now the price difference between the current quotation (60€) and the super-price (40€) we have to divide in equal parts, and in the same way our capital in liquidity. Therefore we can divide our capital into 4 parts of 1000€ each and the 20€ difference into 4 parts of 5€ each and in this way we already have the levels in which we will invest additional 1000€ each time the quotation drops 5€ and we will have enough liquidity until he goes down to our super-price.

A rule for you to do well is not to average a price that is less than 8% difference between the initial purchase and the next purchase to average, that is, I will not buy the company at 60€ and at 59€ I will re-invest. Such a small difference between the different prices will not excel in the returns of this long term. In the example I have explained the difference is greater than 8%, so it compensates for the risk with the possible long-term reward.

If instead of having bought 6.000€ initially we had bought less, 3.000€ for example, we would have 7000€ in liquidity to average, we would again divide the difference between the current price and the super-price and divide it into 3, 4, 5 equal parts (to the taste of the investor) and buy when it comes at the price we agreed. This is the standard way of averaging.

We can also increase or decrease the risk by doing the average in different ways…

– Increase the risk: Instead of dividing our capital into 4 equal parts I will give more money to the latest purchases, for example: Instead of buying 1,000€ each time I lower 5€ the quotation, the first 5€ I lower (the quotation would be 55€) I will buy 500€ only (I have left in liquidity 3,500€, the second purchase at 50€ I buy for 800€, the third for 1200€, and the fourth and last for 1500€.

– Reduce the risk: Exactly like the previous point but in this case, the first purchase to average is the most money we invest, and the last one the least, we would invest 1500€ first when the quote reaches 55€, 1200€ when it reaches 50€, 800€ when it reaches 45€, and finally 500€ when it reaches 40€.

By reducing the risk, I am not referring to the operation in general, but to the strategy of averaging downwards. Another day we will talk about selling a part of the portfolio to reduce the risk of the transaction in general.

-It is different from the average if we invest 6.000€ in the first purchase than 4.000€, the more money you invest in a certain price, the more the average cost will approach this.

– We can use the 3 ways of averaging, we just have to know what our profile is and if we will find ourselves doing this high-risk strategy.

– Never weigh at prices below 8% distance between several purchases. The risk does not compensate for the reward.

– It is not the same as a super-price for our example of 40€ that 59€, here it is clear that I will not average, it is not higher than the minimum 8%.

– In companies it is very risky, I would not advise you, you must be almost professional to do it in companies. In indices, it is different, although not all indices, choose one with large companies, and enough, SP500, Eurostoxx300, the VT would be perfect, etc. An idea to know a super-price of an index is to see the return for a dividend that gives and with which you would agree.

This is all, a risky strategy, but using it with a lot of heads and a lot of care can give us joy. As a last remark I repeat that I do not advise this technique in companies and in indices if you do not know how to use it well, it is very dangerous, but now you’re a little more knowledgeable about how to do it and avoid serious mistakes by buying too soon or in an underlying evil.

Categories
Forex Assets

How Much Is Google Worth? A Trader’s Guide to the Search Engine Giant

I will first comment on the balance sheet and its risks but I hope I will not go too far, as it is a company with few debts, with very strong financial health, and with quite limited risks in my opinion. After this, we will move on to its valuation by multiples, by discounting cash flows, and its valuation of the sum of the parts.

Balance Sheet

Regarding its financial health, it has a Current Ratio (remember that they are current assets/current liabilities) of 3.37 and a Quick Ratio of 3.35 that is the same but subtracting the inventory from the assets, although as we see this item is practically insignificant. Around 1.5 is usually a good ratio, in this case, we see how the weight of its assets far exceeds liabilities.

Profit and Loss

With respect to its consolidated income statement, in 2018 and 2019 it made profits in excess of $30 billion, although in 2017 it was quite lower, about $12 b. This is largely due to the provisioning of taxes for the sanction it had for monopolistic practices. After seeing the profitability and margins we will look at what are some of the risks of Alphabet.

Profitability and Margins

Except for the exceptional situation of Alphabet in 2017, the ROE is usually around 16%, obtaining more than 18% in the last 2 years. Something similar happens with the ROA, around 13%. While the ROIC tends to be most of the years between 30-40%. In the case of margins, they are not as high as in previous years, but they still have a gross margin of more than 55% and a net margin of more than 21%, which is very good.

Trading Risks

Of course, as with any investment, there are always risks, and these are some of the ones that the company itself comments on. If you think they’re missing something, leave it in the comments. 83% of sales come from advertising. If advertisers’ spending is reduced, or limitations appear when displaying ads or personalizing them, the business could suffer a lot.

Competitors

Disruption, interference, or failure of our information technology and communications systems could damage our ability to provide our products and services effectively, which could damage our reputation, financial condition, and operational results. The occurrence of a natural disaster, the closure of a facility, or other unforeseen problems in our data centers. 

  • Regulatory Risk. Antitrust, privacy, tax laws.
  • Privacy and data protection. Any scandal here would affect the company.

Rating by multiples of Alphabet

As we have already said, for a business of the magnitude and quality of Alphabet it is almost impossible to compare it with other competitors. This is because there is no other Alphabet that competes directly, instead, we have multiple competitors fighting for different business segments. Therefore, it is most likely reasonable to compare with Alphabet’s own historical multiples. Here I will focus only on two multiples that for me would be the most important in this case, such as P/FCF and EV/EBITDA.

Review of Google based on Price to Free Cash Flow (P/FCF)

Number of shares = 688.8 M

Median over the last 15 years 33.45

Price per share = 1206,57€

Market Cap = 831,085 M (price per share*number of shares)

Free Cash Flow (FCF) = 28.457 M

P/current FCF = 29,20 (Market Cap/FCF)

How much is Google worth according to its EV/EBITDA?

If we take the historical median of 15.89 as a reference and expect it to return to that level of EV/EBITDA we would have:

EV/51.506 = 15.89 –> EV = 15.89 * 51.506 = 818.430 M

Estimated EV = 818,430 M

EV per estimated share = €1,188.20

Dividing 818,430 M by the number of shares we would have an estimated EV per share of 1,188.20 €.

And what would be the safety margin in Google?

Safety margin = [ 1 – (Market price / Intrinsic value) ] * 100 [ 1 – (1055,78 / 1.188,20) ] * 100

Safety margin = 11.14 per cent

Valuation by Alphabet Cash Flow Discount:

We have an estimated EV per share of about $1,333 and an estimated price per share of $1,501.  This represents a safety margin of 20.80% and 19.62% respectively. In this case, we see how the margin has been increased with respect to the multiple valuation methods, although here only by increasing by 1% up or down the return we demand on this investment (Personal required rate of return) the valuation changes substantially.

Valuation by the sum of the parties:

I will take into account both profit and free cash flow and assign other multiples. In addition, I also include an estimate of the debt since it has historically been very small but in recent years it has experienced a growth that we should take into account. First, we’ll see how much Google is worth based on your cash flow, then we’ll add your cash and Waymo’s rating. Then we will deduct the debt and finally divide it by the number of shares. So we will have the estimated price of Google to 3 years seen.

Why change multiples?

Well, Google has historically quoted around 20-25 times benefits or FCF, but as we’ve seen before we get around 33 times compared to FCF and 28 times benefits.

Considering this, let’s leave it at 25-30 times FCF and 24-28 times benefits.

How much is Google’s 3-year cash flow seen based on its profits?

1) Expected growth rate between 10% and 15% over 3 years

Historically it has traded around 28 times the benefits. We will take a conservative range of between 24 – 28 times.

2) Your benefits in three years will be:

  • 34 B current at 10% for 3 years are 45b.
  • 34 B current at 15% for 3 years are 51b.

3) How much this will be worth in 3 years by applying multiples of 24 and 28 times:

  • 45B x 24 times/# of shares = 1,568 € per share or Market Cap of 1,080,000 M
  • 51B x 24 times/# of shares = €1,777 per share or Market Cap of 1,223,998 M
  • 45B x 28 times/# of shares = 1,829 € per share or Market Cap of 1,259,815 M
  • 51B x 28 times/# of shares = €2,073 per share or Market Cap of 1,427,882 M

How much is Google’s 3-year cash flow seen based on its Free Cash Flow?

1) Expected growth rate between 15% and 20% over 3 years.

Google’s FCF growth has been 17.5% in the last 10 years, 24% in the last 5, and 34% in the last 12 months. We remained in a conservative range of 15% – 20% FCF growth and multiple of 25-30 times.

2) FCF in three years will be:

  • 28 B current at 15% for 3 years are 42.5 B.
  • 28 B current at 20% for 3 years are 48 B.

3) How much this will be worth in 3 years by applying multiples of 25 and 30 times:

  • 42.5B x 25 times/# of shares = 1,542 € per share or Market Cap of 1,062,130 M
  • 48B x 25 times/# of shares = €1,760 per share or Market Cap of 1,212,288 M
  • 42.5B x 30 times/# of shares = 1,851 € per share or Market Cap of 1,274,969 M
  • 48B x 30 times/# of shares = 2,090 € per share or Market Cap of 1,439,592 M

Obviously not, everyone must make their own analysis and we have seen that by varying the valuation method we get different prices. I personally am not buying at this price, as I see it likely to buy at a better price with a higher safety margin.

Categories
Forex Market

Investing in China: Opportunity Or the Next Crisis?

In the S. XV, at the time when the so-called Silk Road had its decline, a network of trade routes that from the 1st century B.C. crossed all of Asia to trade goods through territories such as present-day China, Mongolia, Turkey, even Europe, and Africa. At the end of the intermediate period, destination prices were much more inflated than at the beginning, so cheaper maritime alternatives began to emerge. This weekend gave me a chance to reflect a little more on this great country, which also has a great cultural interest.

Is it a good decision for us to invest in China?

We continually hear that China is a superpower and that its growth rates are incredible so that it can overcome the global hegemony that hosts America today. It also has a barbaric population, of which historically the majority has belonged to the lower class but there are more and more middle class with greater capacity for consumption. All this is true but… Is all that shines gold?

Understanding the Chinese Economy: Shadow Banking

We know that in the Republic of China the Communist Party rules and the Communist Party controls the big banks of the country. These big banks do what the party dictates, so in the end, they are obliged to offer loans to companies and sectors that the party wants to benefit from, and the same but on the contrary, they are forbidden to finance other companies or sectors.

In this context, there are companies that need financing and cannot resort to traditional Chinese banking, so their alternative is to resort to so-called “shadow banking”. Shadow banking (which we will refer to as non-banks) are banks that do not comply with banking regulations. In other words, the requirements are lower than the traditional banking system.

Differences between Shadow banking vs traditional banking

In general, non-banks lack access to central bank funds and other features such as deposit insurance and debt guarantees. These non-banks have fewer leverage constraints so in times of bonanza like these last few years they make more money but are more fragile when problems such as defaults appear.

The current situation in China

China has aggressively stimulated its economy in 2019 Q1 and Q3. Again, it is something that has been repeated in the Q1 of 2020 as a result of the Coronavirus (injecting money and lowering interest rates). They indicate that there is a debt saturation that is close to not being assimilated and that while the debt continues to grow, growth has stagnated.

In 2018, the hole in the Chinese deficit stands at 5%, but considering shadow banking it would rise to 11%. In 2014 it was 1% and 5% respectively. In addition, there is most likely a huge amount of loans that are not being repaid, and that will be a problem on the balance sheet of Chinese banks.

China’s GDP (GDP) is growing less.

China’s GDP is growing less and less, and now along with the impact of the Coronavirus the growth forecasts for 2020, which are forecast to be around 5-6%, are still shrinking further, in any case below the 6.1% that there was in 2019.

The debt of China

Since 2008, China’s GDP debt has doubled, surpassing 300% of GDP in 2019. This trend is not exclusive in China, since high indebtedness is something global, and here in Spain, we are not to shoot rockets either. In addition to this high level of indebtedness and the fact that the granting of financing is not based on criteria of the probability of being able to repay the money but on the interest of the scheme, We still have to add to the equation the probability of distorting the data that comes to us as there is a great deal of mistrust within Chinese audit firms.

All this helps illustrate why there is greater concern about China’s banking system. While it is difficult to have a solid view of China’s true economic strength, there are strong reasons to believe that the country is facing a complicated situation with a highly leveraged banking system full of questionable quality loans and growing defaults. While the media prefer to focus on the figures of Trump and trade, the biggest threat to the Chinese economy may be a massive financial bubble from within.

What if it’s not a big deal and we’re looking at a great investment opportunity?

The truth is that leaving aside Chinese macroeconomic issues, today there are renowned investors who tell us that there are many investment opportunities in Chinese companies and other data that can make us believe that it can be a good investment. For example, last week Charlie Munger commented in his “2020 Daily Journal Annual Meeting” that ” the most reliable and strong companies in the world are based in China and not in America”.

On the other hand, if we look above two large ETFs representing the USA and Chinese market:

And if we make the comparison we see that the average PER of the USA market is at 23.87 and that the average PER of the Chinese market is at 13.14. It is clear that the PER has many limitations and we should not rely too much on this ratio when investing, but it can serve as a little guide to compare markets. Leaving aside all its limitations, this photo comparison of these two ETFs seems to tell us that there is a big valuation difference between China and the USA. Is it possible that the USA is expensive? Or maybe China is cheap?

On the other hand, there are giants like Tencent or Alibaba that seem unstoppable to this day. We will have to continue investigating…

Categories
Forex Basics

Struggling With Forex? Read These Quotes Today…

Today we bring you a small collection of famous phrases of traders and personalities that with their words have helped us to improve, we hope that they also help you a lot. Then we’ll leave you with the great truths of the rockers.

– If you want to double your money the quickest, then what you should do is double the bills and put them back in your pocket. (Will Rogers)
– I soon realized that men who have succeeded ( Lawyers, Doctors, Scientists… ) have spent years of study and research in their respective fields, before trying to make money from their professions. (William Gann)
– Success is an ATTITUDE, not a matter of luck. (Anonymous)
– Luck does not exist; God does not play dice with the universe. (Albert Einstein)
– What separates the 5% you earn from the other 95% you lose is an enormous amount of effort. It’s perseverance. You have to like it. (Tom Baldwin)

For us these phrases make one thing clear, investing in the markets is a reality, a fact that anyone can do whenever he invests (and never better said) time in doing it, you need constancy, desire, and training correctly, the rest will come.

It is clear that markets are not a magical place where you double the money, the people who earn here are thanks to their personal effort and their dedication.

We also include some of the most famous and famous phrases of the famous Trader Jesse Livermore.

– When I’m not right, only one thing convinces me of it, and that’s losing money. That’s speculating. (Jesse Livermore)
– They say you never get poor by taking profits, that’s right, but you don’t get rich by taking a four-point profit in a bullish market either. (Jesse Livermore)
– We all know that prices go up and down, it happened in the past and it will happen in the future and that’s all we need to know. It is not advisable to be too curious about the causes that cause price movements, as you risk filling your head with irrelevant aspects. All we need to do is try to find the movement and try to follow the flow. Don’t argue with the trend, and especially don’t try to fight it. (Jesse Livermore)
– If you have a little moment I’ll tell you how to make money on the stock market. Buy with low prices and sell with high prices. If you’re 5 or 10, I’ll tell you when prices are low and when prices are high. (Jesse Livermore)

And, without a doubt, the best of so many who said:

– When my driver tells me he’s going to buy some stock, I rush to sell mine. (Jesse Livermore)

These phrases perfectly summarize the trading, the professionals operate with great trends and movements, holding the position until exhausting that trend, never pay attention to the advice of others, only of what they read in the market, In fact, many people believe that they lose in the market because the professionals manipulate it to their liking, this is not so, they simply place themselves on the right side. On the other hand, it refers to the difficulty and time it takes to learn to read the market, this is not a matter of 2 days, you need time and dedication.

Categories
Forex Trade Types

Short, Medium or Long Term Trades? Which Is Best?

For anyone interested in Forex trading it is vital to know the correct time frame to invest in and then today we’re gonna talk about it. Is there a better time to invest than another? Is it a matter of taste?

First, I want to define each of the deadlines according to our own criteria:

Short term – Operations are opened and closed on the same day or week.

Medium term – Operations can last a few weeks, even a month.

Long term – Operations are opened to be closed within a few years, dividends can be part of the long-term investment strategy.

We need to highlight a number of basic short- and long-term advantages and disadvantages before discussing this issue further:

In Favour of Short Term
  • Low initial capital is needed to achieve significant objectives.
  • Possibility of leveraging without taking significant risks.
  • There is the option of working with compound interest (reinvesting capital on a daily basis).
Against Short Term
  • Find enough time to operate every day for a few hours.
  • Fundamental analysis is useless.
  • Decision-making is much faster and should be very automated, we are very bad at thinking under pressure. (Today automatic trading can supply this and the previous point).
  • The stock market is often either too volatile at the beginning of the session or too quiet for the rest of the day. The currency market is more constant and has trendy and interesting movements most of the day.
In Favour Long Term
  • It offers great tranquility, we have several days to decide what we do.
  • Volume analysis takes on great importance by exposing the next price movements.
Against Long Term
  • Difficulty to get returns with compound interest, reinvestment becomes slower.
  • It is not very appropriate to leverage our money in the long run.
  • We need large initial capital and consequently, the risks in absolute value are much greater.

If you have more arguments against or for the short/long term do not hesitate to comment on them.

After putting forward these arguments I think the solution to the initial question is simple. If you have a small capital but you have time and knowledge it is best to invest in the short term (speculate in full rule) and seek an exponential profit. If what you really have is a large capital, knowledge, and little time, it is surely better to invest in the medium/long term looking for dividends and trends of several months.

Be that as it may, NEVER invest on your own if you do not have before you the experience and knowledge that allow you to invest calmly. Reading newspapers is a ruin, buying “cheap” shares are often expensive, reading forums and posts called, “Menudo pelotazo en tal acción” or “I assure you that the euro will fall” is even less lucrative. I’m sorry, guys, this is a lonely job where you have to form your own system, whether it’s short, medium, or long term. In fact, with creating a system there is not enough, you should have at least 5 or 10 to be able to diversify your operations in a smart way. If you don’t have so many systems, you can always copy free from other traders! 

Another option available is to try to find a way to have your capital well managed and that means not letting your bank invest it.

Categories
Forex Forex Education

Transitioning From Your Day Job To Full-Time Forex Trading

It is a huge decision, moving away from your secure day job in order to become a trader full time. It’s something that a lot of people aim for or join forex in order to try and achieve, so if you are at that stage in your trading career, you must be doing something right and well done so far. It is, however, a huge commitment, it should not be taken lightly and the consequences of it should not be underestimated, there is an awful lot that you need to consider.

As a quick overview, there are many things that will change, most notably will be your lifestyle and your finances, the way you work will need to be adapted to the new situation which could potentially throw your entire lifestyle out of synch. If however, you are coming from a position within the financial world, then you will start off with a little bit of an advantage, but it won’t have taught you everything that you need to know. Even coming from a part-time trading situation, that most likely won’t have prepared you fully for what you are about to undertake. Everyone’s approach to being a full-time trader will be different and everyone will have different abilities and requirements. The first thing that we have to consider is whether or not you are actually ready to become a full-time trader.

In order to work out whether you are actually ready to take the leap into full-time trading, there are a few things that you should consider. Think about a few simple questions, what makes you think that you are ready? Do you have enough capital to go full-time? Are you currently making more than your salary? And are your performances good enough? You

 need to look back over an extended period of time in order to answer these questions, if you made one huge trade that made you more than your salary, it does not mean that you are ready, you need to be consistently making more, not just that once. 

It is important that you get some form of experience before even thinking of going full-time. How long have you been trading part-time? We would not suggest getting involved full-time unless you have been trading part-time for at least six months, and the majority of those six months should be profitable and at a level that is similar to your current salary. You will need to have an understanding of different market conditions and how to trade within them. The markets are always changing, if you only know how to trade within a certain condition, then as soon as it changes, your income will dry up and you will begin to struggle. Be honest with yourself, think about what level you are at, there is no harm in staying part-time for a few more months while you hone your skills, just don’t jump into the decision before you are actually ready.

One of the things that we are all told is that we need to use a demo account before going live, this is certainly the case, but it is simply not enough if you are planning to start trading full time. It is great if you are consistently profitable on a demo account, but the only way that you can be sure that you are ready to go full time is to also be profitable when trading on a live account. The environments differ quite a bit between a demo account and a live account, so being able to trade on one does not mean that you will be able to trade on the other. Ensure that you have experience, and consistently profitable experience with trading on a live account, not just demo.

Next, think about whether you have the appropriate space to trade, if you are planning on doing it full time and to make a living out of it, then you can’t be trading from a laptop while sitting on your living room couch. Get yourself a dedicated space that you can use for trading. A room within our house which is there for nothing but trading, if you do not have the opportunity to do this, then hire out a one-man office somewhere and set that up as your trading room. The space needs to be free from distractions, it needs to only have in it the things that you require to help you trade, and nothing else. When you are in that room, you are there to trade, not to mess about, or watch TV. When you have finished trading for the day, leave that space and do not return to it, keep it completely separate from your family or social life. Also, make sure you have a decent internet connection wherever it is that you are trading, the last thing you want is to lose connection mid-trade.

Routine is vital if you want to be consistently successful, one of the issues with working from home is that it can be very tempting to simply trade and work when you want to work, you are now your own boss, but even bosses need to stick to a routine. Without one, there is a good chance that you could end up becoming a little lazy or spending that extra hour in bed each day. Take a look at your strategy, some strategies have certain periods of time where it is best to trade if yours does, then set your routine and schedule around that, for many strategies, this is around the overlaps of the markets. However you also need to consider where it is you live and the time zone that you are in, do not set a routine to get up in the middle of the night in order to trade, you will begin to despise it and let it slip. Be organized, and be consistent.

You also need to set yourself achievable goals, if you are setting yourself goals to make 20% per week, you are simply setting yourself up to fail, the risks that you will be putting yourself and your account under in order to achieve that are not realistic at all. However, if you were to set 20% for the year, that is something that is a lot more achievable. You will be a lot less stressed, but you will need a larger capital to live off. Try not to set your goals too short term, the markets are not always friendly, but over a longer period of time, you should be able to achieve through consistency.

One aspect of your life that will see a lot of changes is your expenses. You are entering a period of your life where you don’t have the job security that you had before. You need to now learn how to manage your money properly and how to cut back and potentially budget. Before you decide to go full time and quit your day job, take note of exactly what you are spending money on, there are bound to be a number of them that you do not actually need, subscriptions that you have set up that you are no longer using, try to remove as many as you can. This will also give you an idea of how much you will be required to earn each month in order to survive. Separate your living expenses from your trading account, you will need a nice capital sum for trading, do not mix up your living balance with your trading balance. When withdrawing, ensure that you are withdrawing what you need to survive, but also ensure that you have enough in your trading account to continue to trade.

Depending on how you have set up your trading space, there may be some additional costs, especially if you have set up an office somewhere away from home, this needs to be covered by the profits from your trading, if you can get it on a 6 months deal, try to pay it all off when you can, this way you can concentrate on the trading without having to withdraw each month or to worry about covering the costs. The same goes for the internet, phone, and anything else that you require within the office. Just remember to try and budget and to cut back on the expenses that you do not actually require.

One thing that people like about working for yourself and working from home is the fact that you are going to have a lot more free time, this does not however mean that you should be spending hat free time going out and having fun, of course, you can do that a bit but you need to be using a lot of your new-found free time to learn. There Is always more to learn, no trader knows everything about what it is that they are doing or what there is to know. Of course, take some extra time away, if you are consistently profitable, then you deserve a little time away, but just don’t take the added free time for granted.

Think about where you are psychologically. How do you feel when you have a loss at the moment? If it bothers you, you need to consider that when you have a loss on an account that you are depending on the money from, it will hit you 100 times harder. The money you are losing will be what you need to live off, this also increases the amount of stress that you are trading under, if you do not deal well with stress then you may struggle here. Also, greed, do you often get the urge to want more or to place larger trades? If you do, then this is not a good place for you, as this is something that you just cannot do when trading full time and trading for a living. Ensure that you are able to deal with these emotions and that you are able to remain calm and focused even when going through hard times. This also goes for accepting losses, when you have one, which you will, accept it and move on, do not let it swap you and do not dwell on it, accept and move on.

You will then begin to find some new friends, your current circle of friends are great, but they probably don’t know much about trading and when you try to talk to them about it, it is most likely a one-way conversation. You will need to find some new friends and a circle of support that understands trading and are traders themselves. This will give you an avenue to communicate, to ask for help, and to see how you are doing with honest feedback from people who know what they are talking about. Join some communities and get involved, the information and knowledge within them can be invaluable to your progress and career.

The last thing that we will talk about is the importance of having a contingency plan, something that you can fall back on should things go wrong. If you were to suddenly lose your capital, what would you do? If you didn’t quite make enough each month, how would you survive? This is something that only you will be able to answer, so you need to be able to consider your own circumstances and come up with a couple of plans on what you would do should things not go right.

Those are some of the things that you will need to consider should you decide to go into the world of full-time trading, it is not an easy thing to do, a lot of people take the plunge and then find that it is not quite right for them. Have plans in place and ensure that you are ready and you will be in a good position to be successful as a full-time trader.

Categories
Forex Basics

Is the Effort of Forex Trading Actually Worth It?

This is quite a big question, yet it is one that you need to ask yourself before you jump into the world of trading. The forex markets are the biggest marketplace in the world and offer the most liquidity and profit potential anywhere in the world, but with all of that opportunity comes a cost, as there cannot be an opportunity with some form of risk. So if you have ever asked yourself questions like, “Is it worth trading?” or “Should I start trading?” this article will give you some insight into what trading is and whether or not it is worth taking it up as a hobby, or even as a potential future career.

To answer the question of whether or not it is worth being a forex trader is simple, the answer is yes, but it is also no. The answer to this question will depend entirely on who you ask and what their own experiences of trading have been. If you were to ask someone who had pulled in all their savings into trading and then lost, the answer will of course be no, they would advise you to run a mile, however,r if you were to ask a very successful trader for one of the multi-million dollar companies, then they will most likely say yes, simply based on their own experiences. So asking others won’t really give you a clear picture or idea as to whether or not you should be trading.

So we know that you will need to find out first hand whether it is right for you, but you first need to get an understanding of why you are thinking of being a trader in the first place. What is it that has made you think about trading? Are you looking to become rich quickly? Are you looking to make a little extra on the side of your job? Are you looking for a completely new career? Knowing this will give you an idea of what your aims are and whether trading will be able to offer what you want. Are you willing to learn? To spend hours and hours reading, analyzing, and practicing? If yes, then it may be something that you can work with. If you already think you know it all, or simply want to get rich overnight, then there may be a rude awakening when you actually begin to trade, overconfidence is one of the most dangerous emotions when it comes to forex trading.

What does it mean to be a forex trader?

Forex trading is all about buying and selling currencies, you try to buy low and sell high, that is all there is to it. Of course, it is a little more complicated than that. There are tonnes of variations to trading, multiple different account types, lot sizes, dozens of pairs to trade, each with its own influences and influences. With that, here are hundreds of different styles and strategies for trading, some of which you may have heard of, others you may never hear of no matter how much you trade. There’s so much variation and so many options that you should be able to find something that fits you well.

Trading can also be used to help diversify your portfolio, any investor will tell you not to put all of your eggs into a single basket, well trading and forex is an additional basket, and a potentially very good one to be involved in. It does provide the opportunity to change your career or to build a second income, but it won’t be easy.

Does forex make money?

Yes, that is the simple answer, but only if you are doing it properly. For every penny that you can make, you must also risk some, so those that come into it simply wanting to make a lot of money, will risk far too much and most likely lose it all, while those coming in with the expectation of a long term investment, over the period of years, will properly maintain their accounts and their risk and will then be on the right track to be profitable.

The problem is that we cannot actually tell you how much you will make, there are a lot of different factors which would influence this, your starting balance, the risk that you take, the market conditions, your strategy, and more. There are a lot of factors that will influence how profitable you are. If you think about it, make 5% to 10% per month for 10 years, you will be looking at a small fortune, but try to push that to 50% per month as an example, you will probably only last a month before you have lost it all, think long term, not instant profits.

One thing that you need to consider when looking at trading is the comparison to a normal career. With a normal job, you have stability, you know how much you will be bringing in or at least what the minimum amount will be, when it comes to trading there is no guarantee. In fact, you could even lose money in a month, the volatility is there, you can make a lot, and we mean a lot, but you can also not make anything, so if your current financial situation is quite tender, trading full time would not be a sensible option, however, doing on the side of a normal career job is certainly an option, and a good one at that.

Should I become a full-time trader?

Another question a lot of people ask, but they normally ask this one after having traded part-time for quite a while, there are however some exceptions who jump straight in and go full time. If You are thinking of going full time then there are a few considerations that you will need to take. Do you have enough capital to sustain things, if you have a bad month, two months, three months, will you still be able to survive? Are you currently making as much if not more than your actual job with your trading? Do you have the discipline to keep yourself on track when doing it full time? These are just some of the things that you need to consider, if your answer is no to any of them, then you should probably hold off going full time for the moment. You will also need to consider whether you actually enjoy trading, if you do then great, but many people find it boring to sit by the computer looking at graphs for hours on end, so if get easily bored, you may begin to struggle after a while.

What are the risks?

When there is the opportunity to make money, there is also a risk involved. When it comes to trading this risk can be pretty high, people have lost entire accounts on a single trade, others have lost an account over a longer more drawn-out time period of months or even years. This is why it is always stated that risk management is key. Risking 1% per trade as opposed to 10% per trade can save your account, the profits won’t be as high, but again, we are going for long-term profits rather than overnight riches. If you are planning on trading, then you will need to stay disciplined, create a risk management plan and then stick to it, as soon as you deviate, you are putting your account in danger. It is of course also possible to lose even when doing everything right, so you need to go into trading knowing that there is risk involved.

So let’s assume that you have decided that this is something that you want to do, how would you go about starting? The first thing that you want to do is to find somewhere to get a basic forex education, there are plenty of places out there in order to do this. You will then need to start reading and read a lot, there is an endless amount of information out there. You will also want to get yourself a demo account, somewhere where you can practice, if you have not got one yet, get one, it will give you an idea of what you need to do to place trades and a little insight into how the markets move, all valuable things to know. Once you have gained a bit of knowledge, put it to practice within the practice account, then eventually you will be ready to go live as a forex trader.

Categories
Forex Forex Basic Strategies

How To Earn $398 Per Day Trading Forex

How does earning $398 a day sound to you? Good right? Many of us can only wish that we will eventually make this much, for some it is a reality, but for most, it is a distant dream. Yet it is achievable, but the real question that you need to be asking yourself is whether or not you should be aiming for that amount, and what stage you are currently at. Yes, it is achievable and we will be looking at how you can achieve it, but also why you probably shouldn’t be aiming for something so high straight away.

Should You Aim High? 

Ultimately, yes you should be aiming that high, but you should not be aiming that high straight away. In fact, your first goals should be to simply be consistent or even profitable, those are good targets to aim for. If you think about your current trading and your current strategies, what level are you currently at? How much are you making? You will need quite a large balance and a lot of experience in order to make so much per day. Yes, it is certainly achievable, but it is achievable once you have a number of years of success under your belt. Aim high, but do not aim too high too fast.

Start Low

It is important that you start with more realistic targets, start thinking about simply being profitable, that should be your first goal and the first thing that you aim for. Even something like $10 a month is still a positive result and is still a good step in the right direction. Then once you achieve that, increase it, to $20, then $50, then %100, then start looking at weekly targets, $50 a week, $100 a week, and so forth. While many like to look at daily targets, we would actually advise against this, simply because it can force you to make mistakes or to trade when you shouldn’t, but we will look at that shortly.

Daily Targets

We mentioned earlier about daily targets, sometimes people like to set daily targets but we like to think that these can actually be quite dangerous. If you are trying to make a certain amount each day it can lead to over-trading or larger, more desperate trades. This is why we try to place longer-term trades, it takes away a lot of the pressure that you may be putting yourself under. So instead of placing daily targets, try placing a weekly one, this will mean that you can still have bad days and you won’t feel that you need to make additional trades just in order to meet your targets. Weekly or monthly targets are best, just don’t try and put yourself under too much pressure with large and short goals and targets.

It Takes Money to Earn Money

Let’s be honest, if you want to make a lot of money you are going to need a lot to begin with. Otherwise, you will be using ridiculous amounts of risks which could very easily lead to you blowing your account. If you want to be making $398 each and every day then you will either need to be placing some rather large trades or an awful lot of them, either way, you just can’t do this with a small balance, even with a balance of $10,000 you will most likely struggle to get near to this figure. So the simple fact is that if you want to make a lot of money you will need to have a lot of money in the first place. This does not however make the target unachievable, as it will just mean that you will need to build up your account balance first, start small but aim high.

Take Your Time

You need to remember that you aren’t actually in a rush to make his amount, yes we want to get there as quickly as possible but there is no reason to rush and no reason to put your account under any additional risks by trying to get there as quickly as possible. Instead, take things slowly, the markets aren’t going anywhere and so there is no rush to get to your targets as quickly as possible. Use the time it takes to get there to build up your account balance and to learn, learning is a never-ending endeavor within the trading world and so take your time, do not rush, and try learning a little bit extra along the way.

It can be very tempting to rush your way to achieving such a good target, making that much each day is a dream for many and it would allow them to quit their job and work from home. That amount could solve the majority of a lot of our money issues, but it is not something that you will achieve straight away. You need time and money to get to that stage, a lot of time and a lot of money. Set your goals high, but ensure that you do not rush and that you plan your journey there, do not put your account under risks that you do not need to.

Categories
Forex Money Management

How to Save Money on Broker-Related Fees

When it comes to trading forex, from the outside it looks like it is a fantastic and quite straightforward way to make money. In reality, there are a lot of hidden costs that your broker may be adding to our trades. We are talking about spreads, commissions, swap charges, deposit fees, withdrawal fees, and more. All of these fees will add up over time and if you are not careful they can really eat into your profits. We are going to be looking at a few of the things that you can do that could help you to reduce the fees that you are paying and to help you save some of your profits from going into the broker’s profits.

Find the Right Broker

There are a lot of brokers out there, with so many being available, there is also a lot of variety when it comes to the fees that are being charged. Some have high, some have low and some do not have any, but you will need to weigh up the benefits between the fees and the features that you will receive. A broker with very low fees may not be offering the same features as one that charges higher fees. However, if you are paying too much on all fronts, then it may be time to look for another broker. There are industry standards when it comes to the fees, so if you are with one that is far higher than the rest of the market, then you should probably think about changing brokers and going for one with slightly lower overall fees.

Swap Charges

A swap charge is a fee that your broker charges when you hold a trade overnight, these charges are applied directly to the trade that is being held. You won’t find many brokers that do not have swap fees, but there are some out there and some brokers also offer Islamic accounts which do not have swap fees, but the spreads on those accounts are often higher. For many brokers there isn’t much you can do when it comes to the swap fees, they are something that you may need to accept, but you can of course reduce the amount of money that you are paying by trying to close out your trades before the cut-off point in the evening. You will need to weigh up whether it would be worth closing our trade early to avoid the swap or to accept the swap if your trade will make more profit.

Spreads

Spreads are a big one, the spread is the difference between the buy price and the sell price, if a broker has a big spread then the markets will need to move a lot more in order for you to make the same profit than you would with a broker with a lower spread. Brokers often offer different account types, accounts like ECN accounts will have generally lower spreads, so these accounts are good ones to go for If you have a high spread account, there is no harm in getting in touch with your broker to ask if they can lower your spreads, most can do this on an individual account and if you are a good customer of theirs, many will b happy to give a little discount to your spreads.

Commissions

The average commission being charged these days seems to be around $6 per lot traded. Some accounts have commissions and some do not, those without commissions often have large spreads as the commission is often charged as a way of reducing h spreads on the account. If you are being charged anything more than $6 per lot traded then you are most likely being ripped off, either look for a new broker with a lower commission or get in touch with your broker in order to ask that your commission is reduced, if you have a high trade volume with the broker, they will most likely be happy to reduce your commissions a little bit.

Deposit Fees

A bit of a dinosaur this one, but some brokers actually still charge for depositing money into your account, that is right, they charge you to put your money into their accounts. If your broker does this, get out, that is the only advice, there is no place in the forex trading world for brokers that charge you for putting your money into their account.

Withdrawal Fees

Just like the deposit fees, some brokers will charge to withdraw your money. This can be a bit of a pain especially if it is not advertised on the site. There are a few things that you can do, you could look for a broker that does not offer withdrawal fees, there are a lot of them out there but this can be a bit of a hassle, moving all your money into another trading account. You could also check which withdrawal methods are available as some brokers will charge for one method but not for another, so it may be worth changing the method used in order to use one of the ones that do not have a charge. If you are a big player, with a high trade volume, get in touch with your broker, some may be willing to waive any fees that you would otherwise have to pay for your withdrawals.

Rebates

You may have heard of rebates, this is a way of getting back a bit of the money that you are paying through your commission or spreads. There are a number of reputable companies out there that offer you rebates for your trades through a number of different brokers. You will have to sign up for a new account through their introducing broker link, but apart from that, it is a completely automated process. There are also some brokers that will offer rebates directly from them. There will often be a trade volume requirement on these rebates, but if you manage to achieve them, it will save you money getting back a percentage of the commission that you are paying, well worth it if the commissions and spreads are already quite low or at least in line with the industry standards.

Interest

Some brokers will offer you interest for simply having money in your account, a fantastic way to make a little extra money and to help counter the effects of the fees that you are paying. Of course, you are not going to be making thousands a month through interest, but even a few extra dollars per week or month will help to offset some of the fees that you are paying. There aren’t as many brokers offering this sort of thing, but if you are able to find one with other decent features and fees, then it is a great way of making a little more.

Those are some of the things that you can do to help reduce or counteract the fees that your broker may be charging. For many, there may be nothing you can do about them, but for others, it may be worth at least getting in touch with your broker in order to ask whether or not they can reduce any of the fees that you are being charged. There is no harm in asking and many brokers will be happy to offer you something new if you are a good customer of them.

Categories
Forex Basics

Problems Everyone Has With Forex (and How To Solve Them)

When it comes to forex trading, every single trade will have its own individual experiences, however, there will also be a lot of things that are similar, simply due to the nature of the markets. Some of those similarities unfortunately will be problems, problems that the majority of traders will experience. Some may see them as problems, others though may not actually class them as a problem, even though they experience them. We are going to be looking at some of the problems that every trader will experience and the different things that you can do to try and get past them.

Too Much Risk

When you are doing anything with your money, there will be risks involved, risks that could result in you potentially losing any money that you have put in, this is certainly the case when it comes to trading forex and this is a problem for many people. Not necessarily the money that you are putting in, but the emotions and stress that the potential losses can cause. Some People are simply not able to handle risk as well as other people, this is known as their risk tolerance. If you have low levels of risk tolerance then you will find it hard when trading, each and every trade that you put on is increasing the risks to your money and each trade can result in a loss. Some people will struggle with this and so they will end up closing trades early or imply not placing them.

What we need to ensure is that we have a proper risk management plan in place, one that will allow us to reduce the risks for each trade and so that we can see exactly what is being risked with each trade. Things like a risk to reward ratio will allow us to plan the maximum amount that we can lose with each trade through the use of stop losses. These will automatically close the trade when it hits a certain point, this way we can reduce and manage the losses that we are going to take. It keeps our account safe and knowing what the potential loss is before we even place the trade can help give people with lower risk tolerance a lot more confidence in their trade and can help to take some of those worries away. So ensure that you have a proper risk management plan in place to help reduce the issue of trading being a risky endeavor.

It Takes Too Much Time

Another thing that a lot of traders coming into the industry do not fully understand is the amount of time that it takes to learn and to actually begin trading. The initial periods can take a lot of your free time, you need to learn the basics, you need to create a trading strategy, you need a risk management plan for that strategy, and more. This can take a lot of time, more than most people expect as some come into it thinking they will set up an account and then trade, you can of course do that but it will ultimately result in loss.

So yes it does take a long time to get ready, however, it doesn’t always stay like that. Once the initial learning has been completed and you have a strategy ready. Depending on the strategy that you have created, they take up different amounts of time when we look at actually placing trades. If you are the sort of person that does not have a lot of free time, then you can create a strategy that only requires you to place trades once a week, this way you do not need to spend a lot of time placing trades. So yes the initial learning and starting out, but once you have passed that stage, it does not actually take too much time to trade itself. Of course, you will be constantly learning more, but that can be done in bitesize chunks.

It’s Hard to Track

Let’s be honest, when you are placing a lot of trades, not many of us think that we have the time to track everything, to write down everything that we are doing and why. One of the things that are thrown at us when we first start trading is the fact that we are supposed to be keeping a trading journal. A journal where we write down everything that we’re doing, the trades, the results, the reasoning behind it. We just don’t have time to do it all or to even keep a track of the trades we have running.

The good news is that it is a lot quicker than you might think, yes it can be a pretty slow process when you first start out, but it speeds up. It now only takes us a few seconds to write down what we are doing and why, our trading platform also shows us most of the information that we need such as the times of trades, the profit and loss, and so forth. It seems like it will take a long time to build the more that you do it, the quicker it becomes. At the start, it may be a hassle, but it really does not take a lot of time at all once you get used to doing it.

You Need A Lot of Money

When it comes to things like investing, you often hear the phrase “You need money to make money”, while to some extent that is true, if you want to make a lot, then you need a larger balance, but you certainly do not need a lot when you are first getting started. In fact, many brokers allow you to join from as little as $10, making it pretty accessible to most people in the world. Those that were once priced out of the markets can now very easily get involved. It will be hard to make much with such a small balance, for that you will need more, but it just shows that you do not need a lot in order to get started and to actually make anything.

Those are just some of the problems that a lot of people run into when they trade forex. There are others, plus there will be problems that are very individual, that only you may experience. What is important to remember, is that things that look difficult or look like they may stop you in your tracks now, may not actually be as big of an issue as you may think and there will always be ways to get around and to solve the problems that you come across.

Categories
Forex Basic Strategies

WARNING: You’re Losing Money by Not Using this Forex Strategy

What if there is a solution to keep your account afloat no matter the strategy you are using? Would you follow it to the letter? Well, such strategies already exist, the issue is beginner traders cannot resist not to stray away from it. Ridiculous as it sounds, most traders lose because they start gambling instead of trading, even though they have something that already works. Apply this strategy and it would be very hard to blow an account. 

Money Management (“Oh no, that again”)…

You will find many strategies online, ready to be implemented. However, rarely you will find information about how big your trade or position should be. It is a risk management strategy. Yeah, the thing “no one” wants to listen, it is not as cool as some pimped indicator you can plug in. It is the same rule you need to follow when on a diet. You can eat this and this much every day. The desire to eat forbidden food may get the best of you, but if you persist, positive results are unavoidable. 

The brain just wants excitement…

Except in trading, you feel the gambling desire. The idea you can double your account tomorrow is very exciting and lucrative. The truth is it may happen, it can happen more than once. The feeling gets you moving. Unfortunately, everything will end badly. Excitement will be replaced with rage or depression. This game has no good ending unless you cash out and never return after a successful account doubling. But again, you will have to stop thinking about doing it once more, the idea of getting rich quickly. 

Fundamental, technical, it does not matter…

Fundamental analysis, all the news, and events that you think might get the price of some asset going are answering the question of when and in which direction. Technical analysis does this but more strictly. Money Management answers the how much question. No analysis will help you if the Money Management plan does not exist. Spend so much time developing a good entry and exit strategy, all is for nothing without this boring MM plan. Luckily, once you set it up, it is done, just follow it. Oh, yeah, you have to follow it to the letter. 

Your strategy should work…

Finding new ways to trade is great. However, now you know that a strategy needs optimal capital allocation for each trade. If you do not spend much time finding indicators and like to draw support and resistance, Fibonacci, and so on, that strategy is good too. The good news is money management makes any strategy work, essentially it is this thoughtful position sizing that drives your account value up and down. The even better news is that once rounded up, money management does not require you to work on it, just repeat the same for every trade you do. 

Easy MM with Ratios…

Ratios are easy to set up. Once you understand the Stop Loss and Take Profit idea, try to go with the generally accepted approach of having at least a 2 to 1 ratio. This just means your TP is two times away from the trade entry price than the SL. Where to place TP and SL is something we have discussed a lot before, but initially, you can take any channel-type indicator that measures volatility. Place TP at the top or bottom of it, depending on which direction you are trading. SL point is easy to place now, just halve the TP distance for a 2 to 1 ratio. 

Easy MM with Price Action pivots…

Simply said, pivots are price tops and bottoms you see on the chart. These extremes are used to place support and resistance lines, especially if they are repeatedly appearing at the same price levels. These lines are easy picks for your SL positioning, and if you follow the ratio rule TP is also defined. You can experiment with your ratios, extending them to 3:1 or higher. Now when you know how to protect and capture profits at the basic level, the only thing that remains is how much money to put into every trade.

How much to put into a trade…

Technical traders like indicators and indicators are really good at precisely telling you how much to invest. Volatility indicators usually produce a number to tell how something is volatile. You can try and open fixed-size trades. For example, if you have a $10000 account always open $500 positions. That can be 5% per trade. However, when an asset is really moving, more than others and more at that particular time, that 5% can suddenly become a serious loss, even with a proper SL. Of course, we can simplify things. Currencies or assets that are more volatile, such as the GBP, are not going to follow the same 5% trade saying rule. Simply have it to 2.5%. If you see chart candles that are higher than usual, do the same. Now if we really want to get nerdy and precise as technical traders, we can use volatility indicators to calculate precisely how much to invest. One such indicator is now a standard issue on many trading platforms, the ATR indicator.

Strategy example with Keltner Channel…

The picture below contains two indicators, the mentioned Keltner channel and a simple volatility indicator using the TradingView platform. The strategy uses the Keltner channel to set the SL level, at the bottom for long trades and the top for short. Since the channel can be used for breakouts and reversal trading, and it also shrinks if the volatility is getting lower, we have a universal tool for placing SL and TP. Mix in the ratio rule and the position sizing rule and your Money Management is all set. The green vertical line is our long entry moment. We enter a trade when the price breaks out of the channel AND the volatility indicator is rising, but also we consider if the price has broken previous resistance marked with a red horizontal line. The middle channel line is our SL and TP is twice as far from the market with the green arrow.

As you can see, our TP was hit almost at the top of this small trend. Now, the price action went into consolidation, new support and resistance levels are formed until we notice a new breakout of the Keltner channel. It was a short trade that pierced the support line but failed to make the way to the TP level, we were stopped at the SL. Even though we have 1 win and 1 loss, we are still in the money since the TP to SL ratio was 2 to 1. If we fail again, only then we are at breakeven. Testing your strategy, you will aim to be better than 50%, right? Because 50-50 is just coin-flipping. Even then you will be profitable just because you have a money management plan in place. Now you can do the fun stuff. Find a winning strategy of your own.

Sources of knowledge…

On your way to finding a winning strategy suitable to your lifestyle and psychology is fun, it is like finding parts of a money-making machine. On this very website is a whole library of strategies, concepts, and indicators. Of course, consider tweeter and youtube but also dedicated forums where people share ideas. You will notice that something could blend into your strategy. The best part is you do not have to worry about losing. Even if you are very bad, Money Management will give you many more chances to slowly get it right. It is one universal thing that can be used in many other markets.

Categories
Forex Basics

The One Question EVERY Forex Trader Should Know How to Answer

We are always attracted to the lives of successful people and eager to find out what personal traits and course of action paved their way. There are dozens of books and countless Internet pages dedicated to listing and explaining things outstanding individuals do. Continuous reading, focusing on single tasks, having SMART goals to name a few. On the other hand, such people don’t procrastinate, don’t complain and they certainly don’t give up.  So, it is not only what they do, but what they don’t do that actually counts.

Applied to trading, it poses the question: “How to be in 5-10% of traders that make money consistently?” Grasping the forex market will only get you so far. Understanding your oversights and misjudgments will get you further. Being able to avoid all the tools and behaviors that do not serve you will actually do the trick.

If your trading account is not where you want it to be, it isn’t a matter of chance. If you are doing things as instructed and it has not brought you closer to the prize, those things have to change. Set aside some time to assess where your trades go wrong and define the behaviors and instruments that are holding you back from a brighter future.  

Stay Away from Forecasting

Many wonder where a certain currency is heading as they would like to trade accordingly. Predicting the direction a currency will take is unwise and therefore not something you want to dabble in. Once they asked the elder J.P. Morgan to deliver his opinion on stock prices. His prognosis was “I think they will fluctuate”. This is the only true answer and it pertains to the forex market as well.

Political changes (such as elections of major world countries) or economic ones (like breaking down of international trade agreements) will reflect on a currency. Sometimes the “how” is clear as day like with Britain leaving the EU. Ever since 2016, the very mention of Brexit made the Pound struggle. After the Brexit withdrawal agreement and ten months of transition, the new UK – EU partnership agreement was put into force on January 1st, 2021. Once again the British Pound dropped by a percent against the Euro and 0.75 % against the U.S. Dollar. Many analysts expected a post-Brexit surge that never happened, which illustrates the volatility of the market. Still, it remains to be seen what the Bank of England intends to do about it.

Unless you are Pythia, the famous high priestess of the Temple of Apollo at Delphi, you neither have to consult the oracle nor develop the gift of prophecy. Dwelling on things you have no control of is both time-consuming and unprofitable.

You Don’t Need to Be in the Pack

Herd mentality is a well-known psychological phenomenon where individuals embrace and mimic the actions of a larger group. They rely on proverbial two (or more) heads to be better than one and, despite their knowledge or experience, blindly go where the masses take them. Financial markets are no different. There it connotes a tendency to follow and copy what other traders are doing.

Countless traders racing towards an opportunity can trigger various emotional responses, but the following are most prominent:

Greed appears when the thoughts of easy money rush to your brain. The underlying belief is that others have done the research, so it isn’t imperative that you do too.

Self-doubt is sparked in situations when novices lack confidence especially when independent analysis does not coincide with the estimation of the majority. In such cases, they are more likely to believe the opinion of the many and go with the crowd.

Fear is the pervasive market-related emotion, the most common being the fear of loss. Once you lose some money, you start fearing greater losses and as a result trading less.

People also fear that the profit they’ve made may turn into a loss. If you enter a trade that is going your way and it is stagnating, you may suppose that it is coming to a halt and exit too soon. Falsely believing that the pair is overbought or oversold is dangerous for your future endeavors. In case you are right, you may start believing that you should always trust your instincts instead of reason. If you turn out to be wrong, it’s a whim that will cost you all those pips that will accumulate on someone else’s account when you leave.

Finally, there’s FOMO. Fear Of Missing Out is a syndrome usually prompted by the feeling that you might pass on a good opportunity. It happens when a trader sees a signal but does not follow up on it. He enters a trade later, after a period of being indecisive, and starts trotting after the profit. The odds turn against him and these trades invariably fail.

Stick to Your Guns

Remember Glock, a chunky, black piece that features in every other movie. It became the most sought-after gun among US police officers in the late ‘80s. Today, over 30 years later, over 65% of US law enforcement still carry it. The reason being, it is safe and dependable.

When you enter a trade you want to be covered. You do not want your pistol to shoot blanks like a superfast indicator. For one, it could be too old for modern trading. Shooting to kill a trade with it, is like aiming at a moving target, with the money moving further and further away from you. 

Despite it being among the four most used indicators, RSI is no better in our opinion. It does not present a clear picture of when a price is overbought or oversold. This is particularly true when a market exhibits a strong trend. RSI loses its value which renders it is inaccurate. It works best in oscillating markets since it is, like CCI, a momentum oscillator

These two indicators are just examples of things you have been taught to use as helpful but are at best mediocre. Even if something was there from the onset of your career, it doesn’t mean you have to keep using it if it brings sporadic results. If a tool cannot be utilized to your satisfaction, simply stop using it. 

In day-to-day practice, numerous instruments are not as good as advertised. Thankfully, there are hundreds of others to try from. Arm yourself with patience to find the combination of indicators that is just right for you.

A fine example of ammunition your smooth and slick semi-automatic weapon should fire is the Average True Range indicator. ATR tells you the average number of pips per 14 candles (default setting) for the given currency pair.  You can use the daily chart in the last thirty minutes before the candle is closed owing to greater accuracy, and then decide whether to trade. Provided you trade different currency pairs if the movement is slow for one pair you can risk more money whereas if it is fast for the other you will risk proportionately less. That is the true beauty of ATR – it keeps your money and risk management in check. Of course, this is just one way of many.

To revise, you grow as a trader not only knowing what to do but also realizing what to avoid. Your game will become way better if you steer clear of unreliable indicators. Refraining from forecasting will save you money. Staying away from herd mentality, FOMO, and generally keeping your emotions from over-interfering will aid your trading overall.

You will abundantly benefit from exchanging your bad habits for sound routines. Having a firm strategy in place and your risk and money management in check guarantee success.

How to Cultivate the Winning Answer

“If there’s somewhere you need to be, you have to plan how to get there.”

Maybe the saying wasn’t meant for traders, but it fits like a glove.  If we want to cultivate the winning outlook, we need to determine prerequisites for up-and-coming traders.  

Trading is not merely being acquainted with existing market conditions. Besides the knowledge and skills necessary to trade, there is a great deal of psychology involved. Trading psychology is no less a vital part of trading than having a good strategic approach.

One’s beliefs concerning intelligence and talent shape their mindset. When we perceive such qualities as inborn and unchangeable we speak of fixed mindset. This kind of perspective makes it hard for people to tackle problems and they are easily blocked by their mistakes. If you recognize yourself in any of these, you are on the wrong track.

What you believe to be true about yourself as a person and a trader has a bearing on achieving or failing to accomplish your goals. Have faith in yourself and stand firm in your belief that commitment and due diligence develop and strengthen your abilities over time. This is the basis of a growth mindset, a valuable tool for all true professionals. It is crucial for traders to develop one, as it will teach them how to focus on constant personal improvement, view obstacles as learning opportunities, try out different tactics, analyze the way they trade, and use their findings to refine their trading skills. 

As Cool As A Cucumber

Other than a mindset of growth, traders should have a mindset of poise. At the onset of your trading career and later on from time time, the market will throw you a curveball. It is only human to react to winning and losing, but the way you react will determine what kind of trader you are. You have to be aware that everyone loses occasionally. Loss is but a setback to be overcome with a new approach.

Instead of being apprehensive, a trader should exude the air of tranquility. That is not easy to accomplish as there is often a lot at stake. Emotions frequently interfere with making rational decisions, especially fear, impatience, greed, and anger. Impatience is particularly bad because it triggers rash behavior and envelopes the other three. It is in the trader’s best interest to stay impartial to the market. It will help increase gains and minimize losses.

Trading goes hand in hand with taking chances. As a trader, you acquire a high-risk tolerance, but it has nothing to with being hazardous. Pro traders take calculated risks, the ones that are more likely to turn into profit. They are simultaneously aware of the inevitability of losses. There’s no profit without a loss, they are just two sides of the same coin. Having that in mind, they never succumb to being exceedingly exultant about winning trades or overly despondent about losing them.

Two things that work wonders for keeping you composed are sleep and meditation. It is well-known that good sleep improves your concentration and maximizes your productivity. It is advisable for traders to start their day well-rested which benefits their attention and making a better judgment.

A trader’s internal memory is crammed with thoughts of past losses, future gains, and different kinds of trade-related anxiety. Introducing meditation, even as short as 5-minute ones, resets this computer of flesh and blood. The cache memory has to be cleared in order to stay focused on the present. Meditation dials down all the mind wandering, increases the concentration of gray matter in the brain, and is responsible for clearer information processing and better decision-making.

Loving What You Do…

The only thing you should be passionate about is the job itself. Trading works best when it generates a combination of euphoria and fascination. You start going deep into things because you find everything interesting and, before you know it, you breathe it, eat it, you even dream of candles and spikes at night. A drive to learn and be truly good at it will make it seem less like a profession and more like a hobby.

Finding mentors or role models is a big yes. Once given the chance, observe and absorb the way they operate until you become one with it. Deconstruct their actions until you master them, then implement them in your routine. As an alternative, follow other successful traders on social media, blogs, or youtube and read books on the subject. Always bear in mind the ratio of successful and unsuccessful traders, so not everyone will be the person you copy or look up to.

Be aware that the path is one of solitude and perseverance. There is no such thing as being over-prepared, so study the charts and do all the necessary background work. Be willing to try out new things, test new indicators and strategies. In that respect, trial and error are your new best friends.

Meticulous Planning and Execution

You will not learn only from others, but also from your own experience. Keeping a trading journal will help you with that. It is an indispensable tool for every aspiring trader who wants to evaluate their work objectively. Journal should contain daily entries starting before the trade and finishing after. It ought to incorporate all the minute details like date, the time frame that you trade,  the currency pair being traded, the direction of the trade, entry and exit points, two types of exit rules (one for taking profit and another for limiting your risk aka stop loss) and so on.  Apart from the factors mentioned above, you should make a note of all the indicators you are using, slowly building your algorithm.

You should also decide on the strategy you are using, whether it’s a trend following or a trend-reverse, news strategy, or a scalping one. Note down your go-to strategies and be equally prepared for profit and loss. The rudimental purpose in the core of your strategy is to keep you on course towards your long-term goals.

Jot down the result of the trade and include remarks about the forex market. Pay close attention to your emotions and write them down as well. All this data is invaluable for your growth because you can always turn to it to get feedback on your trading.  Retracing your steps can give a slew of information about one’s good or bad trading patterns. Having a neatly laid out plan will allow you to dissect each trade to see what, if anything, could have been done differently. In terms of losses, breaking down what went wrong may prevent future ones.

As you can see, a trader does not go headstrong into a challenge. Integrating journals into the daily trading routine is like having navigation for smoother sailing. It’s a reminder that you came prepared since there is no serious trading without a plan in place. Having a methodical approach to conquering the financial market is well worth the time and effort invested into making it.

The most important thing about a trading plan and this can’t be stressed enough, is adhering religiously to what you’ve outlined. You don’t enter a trade unless all those indicators with immutable signals coincide with one another. You exit neither before nor after you stop loss because you put it there for a reason. You similarly follow the book on your profit-making rule, because you are too smart to let your profit turn into a loss.  

All these things require commitment. If you’ve read this far you are ready. You have the drive necessary to strive to continually improve your game and the determination to enhance your prospects for success.

Categories
Forex Basics

Is There Such A Thing As Risk-Free Forex Trading?

Risks are the first thing to consider by anyone who wants to undertake a role as a trader/ investor. The risks of losing money due to force majeure, due to manipulations of Forex by market makers, this is due to a mistake of technical analysis or if lose something in the fundamental analysis. It is not possible to avoid 100% risk, but it can be optimized or minimized. Read the article and learn how to minimize/optimize trading risks and how to create a balanced investment portfolio.

On Thursday, 15 January 2015, the Swiss Central Bank shocked the market when it announced that the fixed exchange rate of the Swiss franc could no longer be maintained against the euro, as it had for more than 3 years. After the announcement of the Central Bank, the rate of the franc rose by more than 30% against the US dollar and the euro, the Swiss stock market, on the contrary, plummeted by 10%, which affected the exporters. The consequences for traders were catastrophic. Those who made short on the franc (keeping the pair in short positions), simply in a second lost their deposits due to the stop out. The brokers also had a hard time, because a good number of them announced liquidity problems.

On Saturday, September 14, 2019, Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities were attacked by drones, which reduced approximately 50% of the country’s total oil production, which is more than 5% of the world’s oil supply. At the start of Monday’s day, the futures of Brent oil skyrocketed by 19-20%. The intraday jump was the largest since the Gulf War of 1991. Those who failed to close short transactions before the weekend lost a lot.

Both examples are trading risks. It is impossible to fully foresee them, because, as always, there is the probability of force majeure. But it is possible to minimize the risks. Also, as the risk increases, the probability of profit is higher. Let’s take the same example of oil: if short traders made losses, those who bet on growth earned about 20% in a single day.

From this summary, you will learn:

  • What are trading risks and what types of risks exist.
  • Methods to minimize trading risks,
  • Types of diversification of the investment portfolio.

In the summary, I will try to present two main aspects of risk minimization: errors in employing technical analysis and general risks in foreign exchange trading and the creation of an investment portfolio. My opinion is partly subjective, so I suggest addressing it and discussing it in the comments.

Types of Trading Risks

Trading risk: The risk of losses arising from market factors affecting price direction or errors in the analysis (forecasting) of the market situation.

Technical risks: Risk of loss due to technical problems: platform failures, order failures, broker fraud, etc.

Psychological (behavioural) risks: Risk of error due to a person’s emotional state: stress, emotion, fatigue, euphoria, fear, greed, etc.

Trading risk is uncertainty about future price movements as a result of market and non-market factors. So, if we have an open position, we are facing a unique risk, that risk is that we have erred in identifying the price trend. If the price is directed in the opposite way to the open trade, the trader will lose.

If the transaction has not yet been opened, the risk is in the incorrect prognosis of the trend direction or its reversal. We have to admit there’s no clear definition of the concept of “trend”, so traders understand it in their own way. Traders themselves determine the value of the critical amplitude (price reversal), which is called the risk limit and this risk will always depend on the amount of capital in the deposit. In other words, a trader is willing to endure, for example, a 100 point reduction, another no more than 20 points. They all determine the level (limit) of risk themselves but must understand the nature of the trading risks.

Where Risks Come From

Error in analysis and prognosis. Any publication of statistical information, the publication of the results of the Fed meeting, and meetings of other central banks have their effects. The best question we have to solve first is whether the investor knew how to correctly examine the importance of this or that news item. And the forecasts, made by the majority, were justified? Traders should consider these and other factors in the forecast. And there can often be mistakes. Traders often ignore or lose something important, which can result in an incorrect forecast.

Force majeure: It can be presented in different ways: a humanitarian disaster, an unexpected political decision, or a terrorist attack, discovery of new mineral deposits, release to the market of a new product that has not been previously announced, sudden bankruptcy. Force majeure often leads to immediate and generally long-term consequences. Examples of long-term force majeure include the collapse of “dotcom” and the mortgage crisis in the United States, which has become a global crisis. It must be said that there are people who were able to make a profit from the crisis. (I recommend watching the American film “The Big Short”, which describes this situation quite well).

The human factor: Incorrect interpretation of patterns, signs due to fatigue, lack of attention, stress, etc.

Another classification is the simplified division of the causes of trading risks into forecasting errors in technical, fundamental, and human analysis. We have already said what are the reasons for the most important risks in the section we call “Force Majeure”, and I will dwell on more details on the risks resulting from errors in technical analysis.

High volatility at the time of opening the transaction. The greater the volatility, the greater the breadth of price changes and, therefore, the more and faster you can gain from it. It seems reasonable, but the risk lies in assessing this volatility because if the price goes against you, you must be psyched that you can lose more than you usually win. The data of the indicators are relative, as well as the data of the volatility calculators.

Tip: Identify volatility visually. The price range can be referred to as the distance between opposite fractal ends or candle accumulation. For starters, you can train on the history. At first, it will be difficult for beginner traders (know from experience). Second tip: greater volatility, different from the daily average, is observed at the time of the appearance of fundamental factors. Just don’t open any transactions at this time.

The trading strategy of trading by levels individually: someone opens positions expecting a level rebound, someone tries at breakup. For someone that’s a loss limiter. There is the so-called zone of turbulence around fractal levels in short-term time frames, where the price moves in different directions with a narrow amplitude. Predicting price movements in this area is inefficient.

Tip: Use the levels only as a guide. Open transactions out of levels and try to avoid staging at levels of resistance and stop support, as it can be used by large traders (market makers, which will be discussed below). If the transaction is already open in the direction of levels, then it is better to leave before reaching the level. Otherwise, there could be a rebound with the possible slip, which will worsen performance.

Basically, the analysis is reduced to determine whether the break/rebound of a level is true (the trend) or false (the correction). Does it really make sense to put him at risk?

Opening of transactions in overbought and oversold areas. This is the risk of opening a position at the end of a final trend. A classic mistake is trying to enter when the trend is already underway. At the peak of growth, large traders abandon trading, reaping some less intelligent traders.

It seems reasonable to employ RSI or stochastic, but they are not efficient at minimizing risks. They are often lagging behind, they invest in extreme price zones, and so on. So even if you use the indicators to determine the zones, you can still make a mistake.

Tip: You can identify signs of trend depletion as follows. The amplitudes in the three fractal sections are compared side by side in the time frame M1 (the exhaustion of the trend is clear there before). If the amplitude is shrinking (the amplitude of each subsequent fractal is shrinking), this suggests that the trend is exhausting.

And the simplest and wisest advice is that when starting an operation at the beginning of the trend, don’t do what most. Be careful when interpreting the signals of the indicators, there are no perfect and impeccable indicators.

Opening of transactions where there is no clear trend. There are situations where a trader makes a correction or a local price change for a new trend, which often occurs on flat. It is difficult, especially inexperienced. To identify the flat end, as it often does not have a clear beginning or end.

Tip: I suggest again using the comparison of price amplitude within the flat trend. If in the short term, there is a price movement whose amplitude deviates sharply from the average value, you should be alert. Do not enter an operation immediately, the first price change could be a correction. Analyze multiple time periods at a time: the signal period is М1-М5, confirming longer periods.

Incorrect indicator parameters: This will lead to an incorrect interpretation of the signals.

Council: Before starting to use an indicator with adjusted parameters in trading on a real account, try the system (tester МТ4, FxBlue). More detailed information about testing and optimization strategies in this summary.

Application of pending orders: Outstanding orders are used in trading strategies based on the opening of transactions when the price exceeds the consolidation area. Orders are placed in opposite directions, betting that one of them will work. The risk arises from the fact that outstanding orders are set on the basis of intuition, rather than actual price movements. The distance is calculated, for example, in percentages of the average value of the price movement in the consolidation area. We will always have to take the risk that the price will leave the area, touch the order and then move in the opposite direction.

Tip: To reduce risk, avoid using pending orders.

Abrupt reduction of contributions when a long position is opened. There are several examples when the price changed by 800-1000 points in just a few minutes. Of course, hardly anyone could react, make a decision and make a compromise.

Tip: Always use a stop loss.

Market makers. A particular trader is only a tiny part of a much bigger game. The creators of the market are therefore great players, who can influence price through their huge capitals. They can create a necessary repository of information by manipulating media, forums, and other resources through forecasting, analysis, and information.

But this is not his only means. They could see levels where purchase and sale orders are concentrated, that is, stop losses and pending orders established in advance. As practice shows, most traders set stop loss in the area of the local ends, being tied to strong or rounded levels of support/resistance. Pending commands can be configured the same way. The market makers oppose the majority, push the price to the area where the orders are accumulated, then, even taking into account all the forecasts, most traders are activated to stop.

For example. Market makers want to sell a certain currency at the best possible price. You see multiple stop loss higher than the current rates (green horizontal line at the bottom of the screen), which are basically the orders requested. On the other hand, market makers see many orders pending in the same price area, which does not allow the price to rise (volume equilibrium).

The price is pushed with small orders to the necessary level, after which it satisfies your sales volumes through purchase requests (stop loss). Given the number of short requests, it is unlikely that the price will go further.

Tip: There is no point in fighting with market makers. Therefore, you should learn to identify potential areas of command concentration and try to avoid them. It should also bear in mind that indicators cannot anticipate the possible actions of market makers. Therefore, it makes sense to rely less on indicators and pay more attention to levels, patterns, and exchange of information (trading volumes, order table).

You can suggest any other risk of technical analysis, write in the comments. Let’s look for more ways to minimize and optimize trading risks together. With regard to reducing the risks of erroneous forecasts based on fundamental analysis, there are few recommendations:

  • Do not blindly trust everything that is reported in the media and be especially careful with “expert” forecasts. Check the official data reported by news agencies and official resources.
  • Use complementary analytical tools: economic calendar, action analyzers.
  • Evaluate dynamics statistics, comparing them with analysts’ expectations and previous reports.
  • And prepare to react instantly to a force majeure.

Hedging and Blocking

Coverage and blocking mean the same thing, go into two opposite operations (I won’t dig too deep into the big difference between them). Let’s imagine that a trader opens a buying position, but unfortunately, the price drops. Then, the trader has opened a selling position with the same volume. The loss from the first position is offset by the gain from the second operation.

Advantages of blocking a position:

If you set the locks correctly and unlock the positions on time (cancel the unprofitable or secure position), you can even make profits this way. There is even a trading strategy based on the creation of an order grid.

The lock allows you to manage the floating loss that does not affect the balance or spoil the trading statistics. But, there is always a defect in the locking positions. In the event of incorrect opening and closing of insurance and major positions, the trader is more likely to receive the loss resulting from both the transactions and the spread. Therefore, blocking is a high-risk strategy for a novice trader, such as trading in a similar way to Martingale, but an advanced trader can protect against unprofitable trading employing blocking and hedging.

The strategy and blocking rules should be highlighted in a separate article. If you want to do so, write in the comments.

How to Minimize Trading Risks

Diversification: So far, this is the best recommendation you can take into account when protecting your investment from certain business risks. But it is a kind of art to properly diversify its portfolio of investments and rebalance it regularly.

Types of diversification:

Asset division: It is the most widespread among the community to make a diversification. In addition, you can allocate your funds not only between different currency pairs or shares but also between deposit accounts, precious metals, cryptocurrencies, antiques, real estate, etc.

Diversification by risk level: There are assets that, in case of force majeure, increase in price (for example, gold). There are assets that, even in the midst of strong market fluctuations, hardly change prices. We have assets at our disposal with volatility, for example, of 5% per day. The way we distribute investments among assets with different volatility rates, risk (and, consequently, profitability) is the diversification of risks. I suggest you read the article on protective assets.

Applied diversification: Distribution of investments between strategies with different levels of risk: Martingale and conservative negotiation, scalping and long-term strategies, manual and algorithmic negotiation.

Institutional diversification: Here it is about working with multiple counterparts: Forex, Exchange and different brokers, trust management, etc. If we’re in a force majeure situation (we already discussed the case of the Swiss franc) a counterparty fails, it can withdraw at least the rest of the money from the second.

Statistical diversification: This is a direct and inverse correlation. For example, corn and wheat futures often have the same price direction, USD and gold trends often go the opposite way. A portfolio composed of reverse-correlated assets. will be logically less profitable, but safer because at the time when a low-priced asset, an increase in the price of a different asset offset the loss.

The diversification of investments is limited only by the imagination of the trader and his ability to conduct a market analysis, as well as the appetite for risk. The greater the risk, the greater the potential benefit. That’s why trading risks are often intertwined with psychological risks.

Trade risk insurance:

Stop-loss placement: At this point, we could comment on an example of drivers who ignore the mandatory driving rules of fastening seatbelts. It’s not easy to guess because some people don’t want to use means of protection. On the one hand, market makers can determine the areas where many stops are concentrated and can deliberately push quotes to catch them. Also, a stop loss will be very helpful if a large price difference happens as a result of a force majeure event. We can find another argument, that a trader is not able to react in a volatile market, and a stop loss may save at least part of their deposit.

Close transactions before the weekend: Sometimes, the situation in the Forex market changes drastically for an hour. From Monday to Friday (suppose a trader works 24 hours a day), one could still react to a force majeure. But the weekend, when markets are closed, can bring unpleasant surprises. One example is drone strikes in Saudi Arabia. And it’s even worse if the market opens with a price gap after the weekend.

The moderate use of leverage: That’s logical. If you use high leverage, a negligible force majeure will close your positions due to the stop out.

Calculation of the volume of the lot according to the volume of your deposit, level of risk of the transaction and deposit, and other factors More information in this article.

Conclusion

No risk-free Forex strategies. Is it necessary to minimize Forex trading risks? My opinion is no. Those who want to eliminate or minimize risks cannot participate in trading and invest their capital in a bank deposit. Risks must be optimised by properly assessing their opportunities and the capacity to withstand losses. The risk limitation and balancing policy is a risk management policy, which must be drawn up before trading in a real account begins. Only you can develop a risk management system yourself because in reality there are no recommendations that are good for everyone and that can be perfect for all investors regardless of their condition in all cases.

Categories
Forex Market

The Functions of the Financial Market

The role of the financial market in a modern civilized society is enormous. Its aim is to mobilize capital, distribute it among industries, control and maintain the reproduction process and improve the efficiency of the overall economic system.

The main functions of the financial market, performed by its participants, are as follows:

  • Facilitate efficient relationships between all market participants, from individuals and individual investors to large institutional investors.
  • To supervise and regulate the processes carried out in the financial system: regulation of the money supply, control of compliance with the rules established by market participants, licensing, development of legal provisions.
  • Mobilize and allocate capital to be used more efficiently and generate added value.
  • Minimise risks, including fraud prevention (combating money laundering). Ensure transparent prices and avoid price manipulation.
  • Provide liquidity to the market.
  • Guarantee the privacy and transparency of transactions made.
  • Provide necessary information.

Financial market activities are based on the liabilities of national banks to control exchange rates and to set interest rates. Foreign exchange markets and stocks, as well as commercial banks, are directly related to the development of the financial asset market. The stock market is the most interesting segment of the financial market in terms of return on investment.

Financial Market Participants

Each investor is a participant in the financial market in some way. Each of us works somewhere, making our own contribution to the GDP rate, buying something, which indirectly affects inflation and the level of consumer prices. Someone becomes an investor, buys a foreign currency or collectible currencies, or invests in bank deposits, investment companies, using loans.

But still, economic science classifies financial market participants according to their segment. This means that the financial market, simplifying a lot, is a relationship between two categories of participants: buyers and sellers The third category includes intermediaries who are directly involved in transactions, providing assistance, facilitation, and guarantees. The same financial market actor can act simultaneously as the seller, the buyer, and the intermediary.

Foreign Exchange Market

Sellers – The main sellers are the state and the banks. The country that sells a currency does so through authorized agencies and then performs a regulatory function. Sellers may also be companies engaged in foreign economic activity (sale of profits in foreign currency) and individuals.

Buyers – All agents, even sellers, can interact as buyers.

Intermediaries – This category may include commercial banks, bureaux de change, etc.

The Credit Market

Borrowers – They work internationally, borrowers are States, and the ratio of GDP to external debt is considered one of the best statistical indicators of the state of a country’s economy. At the national level, borrowers are businesses and individuals, local governments, etc. A clear example of a multilevel credit market structure is the US mortgage system, where banks issued mortgage securities to accumulate new capital for later loans.

Lenders – These market participants have reserve capital and want to increase it: individuals, investing their funds in deposits that will then be used for loans, buyers of debt securities (insurance, pensions, investment funds). Certainly, any investor can be called a lender, since it gives extra money with the aim of obtaining a percentage that is destined for development. The state can also be called a lender, which creates liquidity and distributes the money to borrowers through the central bank.

Middlemen – They are all involved in the organization of the distribution of money: banks, brokers, concessionaires, investment management companies. Insurance and pension funds can also be attributed to intermediaries, accumulating and distributing capital.

The credit market is closely related to stock and investment markets. For example, corporate bonds are a tool to raise money and security at the same time. Government bonds are one of the favorite investment options with the lowest risk for investment funds.

The Insurance Market

Insurers – These are companies, duly authorized to provide insurance services. There are open-ended insurance companies (they provide services to all market participants), captive insurers (they are owned and controlled by their policyholders), and risk reinsurance companies.

Insured – Individuals, companies, institutions, who purchase insurance services to minimize risks.

Intermediaries – There are no intermediaries, the transactions are made directly between the insurer and the insured.

All markets are closely intertwined. As mentioned above, insurance companies also participate in the investment market. It also includes insurance instruments (for example, several swaps) used by securities market agents.

Investment Market

Every person who invests his capital in a particular asset is an investor. Intermediaries can be banks, stock exchanges, different types of funds, etc.

The Securities Market

Emitters – These include organizations and companies that issue certain securities: shares, bonds, etc. When issuing, issuers agree that they must comply with all specified (agreed) requirements at the time of issuance.

Investors – They are all those who buy securities to generate income. There are strategies (buying a majority stake) and minority (making up a portfolio, buying securities in order to generate revenue only).

Middlemen – Stock exchanges, banks, insurers, rating agencies, auditors, and other participants involved in the organisation of the issue and placement of securities.

The classification described above can be grouped as follows:

The state and central banks (regulatory and supervisory organisations). Managing the largest amount of capital, these agents mainly perform the supervisory and regulatory function.

Regulators (regulatory and supervisory institutions). Establishments that do not participate directly in transactions (that is why they cannot be referred to intermediaries), but perform a control function. The oversight function is also carried out by the central bank and the state government, but it can also be a separate institution, such as a self-regulatory organization (SRO).

Financial services companies (organisations providing services to the financial market and financial intermediaries). We are talking about institutions that are often involved in organisational work: currency exchanges, stocks and raw materials, brokers, insurers, auditors, depositors, registrars, compensation companies, and consulting.

Banks (financial intermediaries). They are intermediaries involved in the distribution of capital, market regulation, and supervision of compliance with established rules.

Legal entities (lenders, investors, borrowers). The largest group of participants: companies dedicated to the placement of clients’ pension savings, investment, insurance, hedge funds, trust management companies, brokers, concessionaires, individual loan organizations, companies involved in any type of financial activity, participating in the return of money.

Natural persons (lenders, borrowers, investors): traders, speculators, individual asset managers, long-term investors, and ordinary persons, as mentioned at the beginning.

Important Financial Market Indicators

As a general rule, experienced traders actively use the economic calendar, which is provided free of charge by the broker. I recommend making this a habit if you haven’t already. Here is a short summary of some of the most important indicators in the economic calendar and tips on how to analyze them:

Interest rate – One of the main economic tools that allow managing the volume of money supply, thus also adjusting inflation. The interest rate grants loans to commercial banks. A higher interest rate increases interest rates on loans and deposits and therefore encourages consumers to invest. This, in turn, reduces the inflation rate. Influence, when the interest rate is raised, is exclusively dependent on the economy of a given country. For developed countries (e.g., the US), a higher interest rate increases the exchange rate of the national currency. In the least developed countries, raising the interest rate can be seen as an attempt to curb stagnation and thus increase investor interest.

Non-agricultural payroll (Non-Farm Payrolls) – Report on changes in the number of jobs in the US non-agricultural sector. It is considered one of the most important reports, but its impact on the dollar price lasts a relatively short time (few hours). Goes public on the first Friday of every month at 12.30 (13.30) GMT. The statistics are based on data from more than 400 households and are published by the US Department of Labor. In theory, the factor that influences the rate of the US dollar will be the deviation of the fact of the forecast by more than 40 thousand. In practice, much depends on accompanying statistics and investor sentiment.

Consumer price index – It is calculated for a specific group of goods and services that are part of the consumption basket of the average resident of the country. The index analysis for the current year is carried out in comparison with the base (baseline). The IMF, EBRD, and the United Nations recommend the statistical basis for the calculation, but there is no single approach, each country has its own calculation peculiarities. The calculation methodology can be based on the price indices of Lowe, Paasche, and Laspeyres. If the index decreases, it means that consumer purchasing power (real demand) also decreases and may partially suggest a higher rate of inflation growth.

With regard to indicators such as GDP, inflation rate, unemployment, I think everything is clear: the better the indicator, the more positive is the feeling of investors in the currency and stock markets.

Important point: the economic calendar is only a complementary information tool and in no way can it serve as the main tool to base trading strategies. At the time of news release, the market is especially volatile, therefore, the calendar is often used upside down to exit trading.

If you are still willing to try to negotiate with the economic calendar, here are some tips:

Compare the actual value with the forecast. If, for example, GDP growth was 2%, given a forecast of 2.5%, it will have a negative influence on the market. Please note that the data can be reviewed.

Evaluate the chances of an event and the expectations of investors. Let’s take an example, if what is anticipated is that the Federal Reserve increase the rate of federal funding at the next meeting, investors will consider it beforehand and will not undergo major changes at the time of the news release.

Compare the importance of news with other factors. For example, if in times of silence, the publication of statistics on US oil reserves has a significant impact on quotes, then during the peak of the US-China trade war, these data were hardly noticed.

Categories
Forex Basic Strategies

Create a Powerful Forex Strategy In Only Five Steps

One of the first things that can happen to you when you start trading forex is seeing that it is possible to earn money without having a fixed course. This will create a false feeling that trading is easy and you don’t need anything else. Then, the market will put you in your place. But of course, you’ll get pretty high for the previous gain and then the fall will be harder. Then the frustration will be such that you will want to quit trading and think that everything is manipulated and against you. Does it ring a bell?

Why is this happening? You were lucky to start and you don’t have a clear strategy that allows you to trade without those ups and downs as if you were on a roller coaster. If you spend time creating one or more strategies and adjust the risk so that market movements don’t leave you with KO, you can put the odds in your favor.

How can you create a trading strategy? It is very simple, nowadays there are many tools that allow you to create systems and automate them without learning to program. As easy as having to follow a series of steps to make sure you have everything defined and that you don’t leave anything in the air. I tell you the five steps to set up a trading strategy.

Define A Time Period

Your trading strategy needs to be well defined over time. Set when to open a position and when to close it. The exact moment in time or circumstance. In addition to the frequency. if for example will not operate on Fridays or during a strip at night. This is especially useful in some intraday strategies to limit that no trades are made during rollover, as spreads are usually higher and we pay more for each trade. Also interesting not to trade for example on Sundays at the opening or when there is volatility as when macro data is published.

If you do day trading you will look for small time frames trades with the aim of looking for intraday movements in the price, while if you do swing trading you will look for wider ranges in the price and your time horizon will be wider.

Input and Output Indicators

Indicators, as their name indicates, will act to give an input or output signal from a position. An indicator can be simple as a moving average or more complex and personalized. Really indicators with very simple rules work very well over time. For example, we can define in our trading strategy that when the opening price in an hour of EUR/USD exceeds its 20-period weighted moving average, buy and close the position when subsequently, the opening price in one hour is below this average.

The objective of an indicator is to serve as a reference, for example, to detect a trend. Indicators are not the panacea or magic, they are just markers on the way to reach our goal. You have to see it as clues so that everything develops in the best way and get an advantage, but remember that the key is to work with different systems.

Defining Risk Strategy

Defining risk in our trading strategy is not that it is important, it is that it is basic and fundamental. Your system should consider how much you will buy or sell an asset and how much is the maximum you can lose. The maximum amount you can lose can be calculated in euros or dollars or you can calculate it in % of your account. I recommend that you do it in percentage terms to avoid constantly adjusting.

Many traders start to consider how much they can lose once it’s happening, as at first, they believe it’s something that won’t even happen. Incredible but true. This puts them at risk for more money than they can actually assume. Set a maximum percentage you can lose in your trading strategy (depending on your actual risk tolerance), it will help you keep your feet on the ground.

Configuration of Parameters

Where will you place the stop loss? And the take profit or target of each operation? What will be the settings of the indicators you will use? For example, if as I said in the previous example you use a moving average. How many periods will it be? It is important that all of this is well-set, clear, and objective. This way you will have a perfectly defined trading strategy that will not make you think or doubt its execution.

Write Your Strategy

Could you explain your strategy to someone in a simple way? One thing that is often said is that your strategy should be able to enter a post it. Maybe it’s a little radical, but in essence, the shorter and simpler, the more robust and more likely it will work over time.

Writing your strategy is something that will help you understand it. Imagine if you had to tell someone to program it for you. You should be very objective and avoid statements like “much, high, little or low”. You will have to define very well how much is that much, that high, that little, or that low. That will help you not to sabotage yourself and to have the mental clarity to act accurately in reality. Whether you’re operating manually or automated.

[Extra] Keep Track of Your Operations

Many traders create a strategy and simply execute it. If it goes well they raise the amount until they can’t take any more risk, the position goes against them by little, and by going so exposed they blow the account. Others simply carry it out and if it is not profitable at first, abandon it.

Winning traders do not do this, they work with different strategies that monitor proper risk management. This means that your perception is not focused on a single strategy and that you will play everything to one card. You will have a more panoramic view, but remember that you must follow your strategies.

This point is important because it will help you establish criteria where you disconnect strategies that are not working. It’ll help you limit your losses considerably. Many traders live clinging to the idea that they need to be strong no matter what and stay true to your system. But of course, what if your strategy is no longer profitable? This is nothing new, there are trading systems that no longer have a statistical advantage in the market. That’s why working with a wallet is the smartest thing. So you can have some on the bench to replace the headlines when they flounder.

If you operate manually and you are starting to apply a system, quiet, it is good to start, but keeping control of each operation and its result can help you a lot and is basic. You can do this by connecting your account with platforms such as myfxbook, fxblue, etc.

Now you have a roadmap to follow to create your own system (without forgetting to monitor it). Remember that there are tools that make life easier for us and that can do all this for us.

Categories
Forex Assets

The Definitive Guide to Forex CFD Trading

Although it is a basic term within trading and forex, in this article I will explain what CFDs are and what they are not. I begin almost necessarily by telling you that CFD, as you know, corresponds to the acronym “Contract For Difference”, which translates into Spanish as “Contract For Differences”. It is a financial product in which the differences between the purchase price and the selling price of a financial asset are settled. When we talk about Forex specifically, about a pair of quoted currencies.

Yes, a CFD is a derivative instrument, or what is the same, it is issued on the price movements of an instrument listed in a market (referred to as the underlying asset), but without being able to physically purchase that asset. Only the benefit or loss of the transaction is charged or paid, but ownership of the asset is never acquired. CFDs have no maturity, the open position in the market can last as long as the trader deems necessary.

Index
  1. How CFDs are valued
  2. How to operate CFDs

2.1. Why an expert trader chooses to trade CFDs

  1. Why trade CFDs instead of shares
  2. Trading platforms to trade CFDs
  3. Characteristics of CFDs
  4. Trading strategies with CFDs

6.1. Risks of trading CFDs

6.2. Learn how to calculate the profits and losses of your CFDs

  1. Who can trade CFDs?
  2. Advantages and disadvantages of using CFDs
How CFDs are Valued

In case you are wondering how CFDs are valued, they are contracts with a broker who issues them, unlike for example the shares that are acquisitions of assets in the market. Typically, the broker offers two prices around the asset’s quotation, one for the purchase (which the trader is supposed to sell) and one for the sale (when the trader wants to buy); these prices are what you can see as “bid” and “ask” respectively.

In forex, standard contracts are called lots and are equivalent to 100000 units of the base currency. Although there are also mini-lots (10000 units) and even micro-lots (1000 units).

For example: if we buy 2 CFDs (2 lots) of the currency pair EUR/USD, it means that we are carrying out an operation of 200000 euros. If the pair is quoted at 1,1200, according to the ask price of our broker (one euro equals 1,1200 dollars), the value of our position would be 224,000 dollars.

How to Operate CFDs

To operate CFDs you only need to establish a contract with a broker that issues these financial products, opening an account with it, and providing an amount of initial capital. Generally, the whole process is done online. When opening an account, the broker usually provides all the tools necessary to trade CFDs, including the trading platform where market analysis is performed, purchase orders are issued and the capital contributed is managed.

Trading with CFDs is as easy as buying, launching a purchase order on the aforementioned trading platform when a price increase is expected. As well as selling when you expect a decline. CFDs are bought and sold as if they were the asset on which they are issued, with the advantage that it is not necessary to own them in order to sell them. It is possible to sell first and repurchase later to close our position (this operation is called “short investing”, “short position opening”, etc.).

To undo the operation, you just have to throw an order opposite to the opening one, even though the platform itself allows you to do it in a simpler way, simply by choosing the option “close position” (or similar).

Why Expert Traders Choose to Trade CFDs

A skilled trader knows how to handle financial markets (which doesn’t mean he always makes a profit), handles risk well, and is able to control his emotions. In this sense, trading through CFDs is an option if your goal is to use leverage. Trading with CFDs has a number of advantages and a number of risks that we will see below. Risks are controllable if you have the knowledge and a necessary methodology (an expert trader has these two characteristics). Once these two skills are achieved, trading CFDs can be an option to consider.

Trading and trading with CFDs requires:

  • Protect capital at all costs, managing the risk of each operation.
  • Think of trading CFDs as a business and not a hobby.
  • Create a strategy and follow it with absolute discipline.
  • Don’t overleverage yourself.
Why Trade CFDs Instead of Shares

When buying shares in a company, a part of the ownership of the company is acquired. In other words, we are shareholders and we are linked to the business of this company. However, we can only sell the shares if we have previously purchased them (unless they are requested on credit). Short transactions are therefore difficult: we can only have a profit if the shares are revalued. With CFDs this changes, it is possible to make money with upward and downward movements.

With the cash shares, we will not have leverage, we must disburse 100% of the purchase price of the same. This means that the volume of operations is limited to our capital in the account. In this case, the investments will require more maturation time, because they need more price travel to obtain an acceptable profit. Intraday trading, even short-term trading, becomes almost impossible unless a high amount of capital is available. Finally, when buying shares a physical purchase is made, you have ownership of them and this fact requires incurring commissions and additional costs.

Trading Platforms to Trade CFDs On

There are many trading platforms to carry out trading through CFDs. Generally, it is the broker himself who provides this tool to the trader when opening an account. There are brokers that have designed their own platform, others, on the contrary, offer it under a customer terminal, but it is not their property and can be used by various intermediaries. Some platforms you can find to trade with very popular CFDs are Metatrader 4 and 5, Visual Chart, Pro Real-Time.

Characteristics of CFDs

The main characteristics of CFDs are the great flexibility they provide, added to the leverage capacity. As I have told you before, are financial products with leverage, the trader does not need to deposit the entire value of the investment. Simply by providing a percentage of it as a guarantee to cover possible losses (margin required) it is possible to open a position with a much larger volume. The potential profit is increased because it is operated with the capital in excess of that actually available.

Liquidity is another of its characteristics, we can buy and sell at the desired time (the Forex market is always operating from Monday to Friday, 24/7) without worrying about the counterpart.

Trading Strategies for CFDs

A trading strategy is about maintaining rules, both for the analysis and for the execution of the trade. The strategy determines the purchase and sale decisions of CFDs, as well as the time, the asset, the volume of the transaction, the potential profit, maximum allowed loss, etc.

To establish a trading strategy with CFDs, the first thing we must decide is the tools we will use for our operations in the market:

Price action.

  • Trends: follow-up and rupture of these.
  • Use of technical indicators to determine market momentum or depletion.
  • Operate according to economic news and other key data.

In addition, the trader must define its style when trading (according to the time duration of the investments in CFDs):

  • Day trading
  • Swing trading
  • Position trading
Risks of Trading CFDs

The risk of trading CFDs comes precisely from the use of leverage. Trading with more than available capital means that each market fluctuation has a greater impact on the trader’s account, whether in favour or against.

An unfavorable operation, if you don’t have proper risk management, can damage your money. When the margin runs out, the broker will require a new contribution or close the position. Be careful because here you must already assume the corresponding loss.

The maximum leverage level for CFDs on the Forex market for major currency pairs and for retail traders under the ESMA regulation for European customers is 1:30 (which means providing a margin of 3.33% on the volume of the actual trade), in accordance with current regulations. So, in this way, the risk of CFDs is limited.

How to Calculate Profits and Losses

To calculate the profit or loss when trading with CFDs, the first thing that will be necessary is to take into account the costs of the transaction.

The main fees charged by CFDs brokers are:

Spread: the difference between sales and offer prices (mentioned above). They are usually a few points and are usually loaded at the time of opening a position. For this reason, trading with CFDs starts with a small loss.

Swap: also called “rollover” or “night premium”. This commission has as a concept the daily interest of the money that the broker lends us for leverage. It is a charge or credit to our account each day, depending on the difference in the interest rate of the two currencies of the pair in which you trade.

Once the costs are known, the factors to take into account to calculate our profit or loss from the position with CFDs are the following:

The contract size or volume of the position (in the base currency).

  • The opening price of the position.
  • The closing price of the position.
  • Gains or losses are determined: (Contract size*Closing price) – (Contract size*Opening price) – Commissions.

In Forex, the minimum price move is called “pip”. A pip is a variation in the fourth decimal place of the currency pair, except for the pairs involving the Japanese yen, which will be the second decimal place. The number of pips earned or lost by the value of each pip (depending on the volume of the position), less the commissions applied, results in the gain or loss.

Then we will have to convert profits or losses into the local currency at the exchange rate.

Who Can Trade CFDs?

Basically, any person with the ability to contract and who has available capital to invest is in perfect disposition to trade with CFDs. In other words, simply by being of age (and not being legally incapacitated) and contributing an amount as capital, it is possible to open an account with a CFD broker and start trading. Trading CFDs is within the reach of anyone because it is not necessary to have a large sum of money.

Advantages and Disadvantages

The advantages of operating with CFDs come from the characteristics of these products, as we have seen above:

-We will only have to deposit a part of our capital as a guarantee, being able to increase the amount of our trading operation.

-The liquidity of the profits obtained is immediate, we can withdraw the profits once obtained.

-They offer the possibility of short trading with the same ease of long trading. The trader can make profits even when the market drops.

-They are extremely agile, it is possible to perform operations of a few minutes duration. Thanks to CFDs and the leverage they offer the trader can take advantage of the slightest movement of the market.

-They require, in most cases, lower commissions than the sale of physical assets.

-They are available to anyone, it does not require much capital to trade with CFDs.

With regard to the disadvantages of:

-Leverage is the risk factor for CFDs, which can be both an advantage and a drawback at the same time. Comprehensive risk management is needed; for this reason, expert traders choose CFDs: they are masters in risk management.

-Although these products do not lack reliability and transparency, they are not quoted on an organised market.

-Daily interest payment is required due to the money borrowed by the broker in the leverage.

Categories
Forex Psychology

Maybe Emotions are Actually Good for Forex Trading?

In the last 20 years, advances in brain imaging technology and other methods of analysis of neurological activity have produced important advances that allow us to better understand the complex functioning and biology of the human brain. This discipline, neuroscience, is closely related to neuroeconomics, which in the last decade has combined knowledge of the brain with biology, physiology, psychology, behavioral finance, and economic theory to improve understanding of decision-making in competitive market environments, where risks and benefits are taken.

For Colin Camerer, Professor of Behavioral Economics and Finance at the California Institute of Technology, neuroeconomics involves opening the “black box” of the brain to inform economic theory and, potentially, for a better understanding to mitigate risky behaviors such as rogue traders. Denise Shull, president and founder of ReThink Group, a New York-based firm that advises professional traders, defines it as the study of “what happens in the brain when we face risk and other decisions that are made under conditions of uncertainty.

When using brain imaging, neuroeconomics also measures heart rate, blood pressure, and facial expressions to evaluate physiological reactions. And it uses games-like tests and experiments to study decision-making, make inferences about how the brain works, and build predictive models about human behavior. These efforts are aimed at advancing and enriching our thinking about economic theory, financial decision-making, or public policy decisions.

Science has advanced in parallel with recent studies of bubbles and crises and how decision-making and risk-taking, at the micro and macro levels, contribute to these events. Andrew Lo, professor of finance and director of the Financial Engineering Laboratory at MIT’s Sloan School of Management, has focused on this area of study. Collaborating with Dmitry Repin of Boston University, Lo has conducted neuroscientific tests on professional traders, looking at how the complex interaction of rational thinking, emotions, and stress can affect risk-taking and the profitability of investments. In his 2011 article, Fear, Greed and Financial Crises: A Cognitive Neurosciences Perspective “by investigating the neuroscientific bases of knowledge and behavior we can identify keys to financial crises and improve our models and methods of dealing with them”.

And watch out because this doesn’t just stay in the financial markets but goes further: President Obama has invested $100 million last year in the Brain Research through Advancing Innovative Neurotechnologies (BRAIN) project, in order to create a map of the brain.

Brain Photos

Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) is the fundamental tool that has allowed a great boost to neuroscience in the last two decades, making it possible to obtain more information about the experiments performed.

With fMRI, scientists are able to scan brains “in action” in a safe, non-invasive way. They are able to obtain empirical data on which specific parts of the brain are active during a given activity. Though there’s still a long way to go in terms of image quality and accuracy, the technology has produced amazing images and scientific findings.

Coates’ case is striking: he currently works as a researcher at the University of Cambridge but is a former operator of the derivative tables of Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank so he knows both worlds well. According to Coates, the way risk is assessed has changed in the last 20 years. Thus, in the nineties “the head of the trading table asked what your position was and how you felt about it, so you could decide if a trader could handle a certain position”. But over time, Coates points out, “this approach was replaced by statistical indicators and risk managers who carried out stress tests and made instantaneous assessments of risk levels.”

However, this change has not allowed us to detect “hidden changes” – those moments that Coates calls “the time between the dog and the wolf” – when people become very risky or very averse to the risk of the normal. Coates says statistical-based methods, which do not take into account biology or neuroscience, are not able to capture the behavioral changes in traders.

In any case, what Coates’ book highlights are that neuroscience and physiology have shown that financial decision-making is not a purely cognitive activity, but that physical components also intervene. Human beings do not manage information without passion, we are not computers; on the contrary, we react to information physically, our bodies and brains move in tune.

Research also shows that much thought is normally carried out automatically and involuntarily, in contrast to controlled thinking that is voluntary, conscious, and open to introspection. Daniel Kahneman himself, a psychologist who won the 2002 Nobel Prize in economics, referred to these modes in 2011 in the title of his book Thinking Fast and Slow, that is, what some authors describe as cold and hot decision-making.

Hot decisions include hunches, instinct, or intuition, which are a way for the body to record critical information that has been received. They hardly affect consciousness, but they are essential to rational choice. Some scientists question the reliability of intuition but experts in neuroscience consider intuition a form of pattern recognition that can help traders identify patterns in complex markets and create algorithms for the exploitation of these patterns. In Coates’ words, “the common sense of a winning trader may be due in part to his ability to produce body signals and listen to them”.

Coates has also deepened the impact of natural hormones on economic agents and markets and in particular the “winning effect” on male traders. The biological evaluation of groups of traders in the City has led him to the conclusion that testosterone and cortisol are chemical messengers that point out risks and economic rewards.

Moderate testosterone levels, says Coates, prepare male traders to take moderate risks, but higher levels occur when traders make winning trades and continue to win. The resulting hormonal imbalance can lead to excessive risk-taking (i.e., the winning effect). What’s more, Coates points out that during bullish markets testosterone is likely to increase, causing risk levels to rise altogether which in turn exaggerates the rally. In contrast, cortisol, a hormone associated with stress and anxiety, can rise during a stock market crack, so traders become irrationally risk-averse. Finally, Coates takes his theory to the extreme: “episodes of irrational exuberance and pessimism that destabilize financial markets can be caused simply by hormones.”

Evidence of the Emotional Component

Another point of view is that of Denise Shull of ReThink Group. This specialist in trader psychology and experienced futures trader claims that much of what we know and have been taught about rational vs. emotional thinking is wrong. Neuroscience has shown that we perceive, judge, and decide in a totally opposite way to that proposed by the prevailing theories in the field of psychology and economics, in which above all the benefits of rational thought stand out.

In particular, Shull cites a 1992 study by Antonio Damasio and Antoine Bechara, professors of neurology and cognitive neuroscience at the College of Medicine at the University of Iowa and creators of the Iowa Gambling Task, a simulator that attempts to represent the decision-making process in real life. In this study, the patients who participated had suffered damage to the orbitofrontal cortex section of the brain, which had been confirmed by fMRI. By studying patients, they found that this area is part of a broader neural system involved in decision-making. Although these patients retained their cognitive abilities despite brain damage, they also showed a dramatic loss of emotional feeling, having begun to make destructive and wrong decisions for their lives.

One patient, for example, had lost all sense of proportion, spending hours obsessed with trivial details and ignoring more important matters. These data led to the conclusion that emotion or feeling is an integral component of the machinery of reason. Another interesting study cited by Shull is the 2007 study by Myeong-Gu Seo of the Robert Smith College of Business at the University of Maryland and Lisa Feldman Barrett of Northeastern University, on the impact of emotions on the decision-making process of buying shares. They selected 101 investors to record their feelings while making investment decisions every day for 20 consecutive business days.

Seo and Barrett found that individuals who experienced more intense feelings during operations made better decisions and made more money, just the opposite of what one would expect! The purpose of the study is that the common prescription of “ignoring your emotions” seems to be wrong for an effective regulation of feelings and their influence on decision-making. Rather, it seems to be the opposite: that people who are in the best position to identify and distinguish their feelings can better control the biases induced by those feelings and, as a result, achieve better trading results.

So, according to Shull, “in risk management what we’re trying to do is extract emotion and come up with a mathematical model, but neuroscience research shows that that takes us the wrong way. ” Moreover, in his paper The Art of Algorithmic War, Shull states that “after most of the non-scientific debate about feelings and emotions there lies the assumption that a feeling or emotion automatically becomes an action. This is simply false… In their purest form, feelings and emotions are designed to give us information. Without realizing it, Wall Street adds emotional information to analysis reports”.

The Biological Factor

Another author who has much to say in this field is Peter Bossaerts of the Caltech Laboratory for Experimental Finance. Bossaerts has applied neuroscience methods to a variety of risk-related topics, including how individuals process risk in a given situation and make risk-related mistakes.

In the tests conducted by Kerstin Preuschoff, a researcher at the Laboratory of Computational Neuroscience at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Lausanne, and Steven Quartz, professor of philosophy and researcher of neuroscience at Caltech, subjects participating in the study were asked to play cards while observing the brain areas activated during risk management using fMRI. The collected data suggest that the anterior insula section of the brain, considered the seat of feelings and emotional awareness, transmits this information in a fairly precise way – essentially in the form of mathematical signals.

For Bossaerts, this means the ability to process risks is encoded in the brain in the form of an algorithm, similar to any mathematical model that quants like so much. Bossaerts has further concluded that while a person may receive new information, the brain’s “processing algorithm” for risk remains constant.

That is, Bossaert claims to have discovered mathematical measurements in an essentially emotional area of the brain so that the processing of emotions in the human being is not something that is done raw, but something that is reported in a reasoned way.”

Conclusion

It is clear that the application of neuroscience to trading opens up a whole new field of research to explore. While the applicability of neuroscience findings to trading is still in its infancy, it is not out of the question that in the future we will be able to reprogram ourselves to trade or act in a certain way to prevent our stress from affecting our performance or even take medications that modify the production of certain hormones to control imbalances in our character that affect trading.

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Forex Daily Topic

What You Need to Know About Forex Spreads

In this article, we will talk about the spread, which is actually an English term that means differential. And this is precisely what it means: A difference between the purchase price and the selling price of a given currency pair on the Forex market.

When trading on forex, our broker will offer us two prices for the same instrument. One of them, called “bid”, is the price at which you will buy the currency pair when we, as traders, decide to sell it. The other price, called “ask”, represents the price at which the Forex broker sells when we decide to buy.

Of course, the bid price (bid) will be a few points lower than the demand price (ask). The broker will always buy at a lower price. Well, the spread is neither more nor less than the existing range between the “bid” price and the “ask”. We will analyze this concept so significant for trading in the Forex market in more detail.

What is a Forex spread?

When entering a purchase order in currency pairs, you should look at the ask price, which the broker sells to. If immediately, after the purchase you decide to sell (without even allowing time for the asset to fluctuate), you would close the deal with a small loss. If you do the same operation, but in the opposite direction (short), the result would be the same.

This loss comes out of the difference between the two prices, that is, the spread. And it is precisely its meaning: it is the cost of trading in the market. It is the broker’s fee for executing our purchase and sale orders. Even if the position develops in our favor and we make profits, we will always close that position by assuming this cost, which is deducted from profits or added to losses.

All financial intermediaries make some kind of charge for offering those services that allow the trader to trade in the market; the spread is just a way to collect them.

Types of spread

Basically, there are two types of spreads in Forex: fixed spread and variable spread.

Fixed spread: This is a spread that remains unchanged, despite fluctuations in assets in the market. If, for example, the EUR/USD pair quotes as follows:

Bid: 1.0964

Ask: 1,0967

We can deduce that the existing spread is 0.0003 points; or what is the same, 3 pips difference. When it is a fixed spread, vary what the price of EUR/USD varies, the difference between both prices will always be 3 pips.

This type of spread is usually offered by those brokers that act as a direct counterpart to the trader’s operations (the broker buys when the trader sells and sells when the trader buys, assuming the opposite position with its possible profits or losses). These types of brokers are known as Market Makers. Each currency pair may have a different spread, however, it will remain constant no matter how much the price fluctuates.

Variable spread: In this case, the spread does not remain unchanged, it can vary depending on the conditions in the market at a certain time. Following the above example of EUR/USD, when it is a variable spread, it will not always be 3 pips. Depending on market conditions (liquidity and volatility), the spread may vary.

As a general rule, when the broker offers variable spreads, these are usually lower than in the case of a fixed spread. But, the trader knows the risk that the cost will increase at specific moments in the market (little liquidity or a lot of volatility).

This type of spread is usually offered by those brokers who transfer the trader’s orders directly to the market, not acting as their direct counterpart; this type of broker is known as ECN or STP. Depending on the supply and demand prices they obtain in the market, the spread is established.

How to collect the spread on Forex

Although it depends on the conditions of each broker, normally, the spread is loaded at the same time as opening a trading position. Whether it is a purchase (long deal) or a sale (short deal), as a general rule, our deal will start with a small loss. As I was saying at the beginning of the article, this loss is the amount of spread that the broker has loaded.

At the time of closing the position, a counter-opening order will be issued, but the spread has already been cashed and will only execute the order at the price that the broker marks at that time. Thus, the gains or losses of the operation will have the cost of the spread incorporated at the time of closing it.

Difference between the commission and spread

Commissions also involve the commissions of the broker to be able to carry out their work. The most important difference is to know how to collect this fee. A commission is charged by the broker each time an order is opened in the market, in other words, it is charged both when closing and when opening a trade; Then, we see how the costs related to trading are doubled. We are talking about that it can be a fixed amount or it can also be a percentage applied to the volume of money of the operation.

In the meantime, the spread is usually cashed only once and is calculated based on the value of each pip (we will soon see how spread can be calculated in Forex). Then, the spread is always measured in pips, not an amount or a percentage of the amount to invest.

How to view the spread in MetaTrader 4?

As I was saying, the spread is nothing more than the difference between the offer price (bid) and the demand price (ask) offered by the broker. Therefore, if we look at these two prices, we can calculate the difference and set the spread points (pips). The natural thing is that the spread is known when establishing the relationship with our broker since it is one of the commissions that the trader must face. You must inform us of this parameter, among other things, of your terms of employment.

In any case, the spread can be checked on MetaTrader 4 (and other trading platforms) simply by looking at the prices of each financial instrument. These values appear in the “Market Observation” window, which, by default, is located on the left side of the platform (can be switched manually). It is convenient to check to ensure that the broker meets the agreed conditions.

How to calculate the spread on Forex

Spread is measured in basis points of fluctuation in the market (the minimum movement an asset can make). These points are called “pips” in the Forex market (Point In Percentage). A pip, that is, the minimum exchange rate variation between two currencies, corresponds to the fourth decimal (0.0001). The pairs in which the Japanese yen appears are quoted to two decimal places only, so their minimum variation is 0.01 (the second decimal represents a pip).

In summary, to calculate the spread, in principle we must calculate the value of each pip. Subsequently, we should only multiply it by the difference pips between the bid and ask price, that is, the spread. The monetary value of a pip is expressed in the quoted currency (the second of the pair). Beware, if this currency is not the local currency, we must keep in mind the exchange rate between the two to make the exact calculation.

A pip can have a value based on the amount we decide to invest. Thus, if we open a one-lot transaction (100,000 units of currency), the value of a pip will be 10 units of the quoted currency (100,000 x 0.0001). If we operate with two lots, 20 currency units; if we operate with a mini-lot (10,000 currency units) it will have a value of 1 currency unit; etc.

If the spread is 3 pips, for example, and the value of each pip is two units of the quoted currency (since we have traded with two mini-lots), its value will be 6 units of currency. To calculate how much it represents in euros, we must make the exchange between both currencies.

Factors Influencing Forex Spread

When the spread has been calculated, one of the most important factors that can influence when establishing the spread is the commercial policy of the broker in question. In other words, we know that there is a competition between intermediaries and also other marketing factors, each broker will set the differentials they think are appropriate. The trader, therefore, can contract with these conditions or look for another broker.

When we talk about variable spreads, the broker will set its prices depending on the prices that are in the market (the prices provided by liquidity providers at all times). Then, the factors that most influence the spread establishment in each currency pair of the Forex market will be the following: (whether fixed or variable spreads)

The volatility of the asset: if volatility is high, the spread increases. It usually happens when economic news publications are produced. The more volatile a financial asset is, the higher the spread the broker will charge us.

Market participants: in other words, the liquidity of the asset in question. If we see that there are a greater number of sellers and buyers it will be easy to marry the orders and consequently the differential will be smaller; the broker will have, in this way, suppliers in the market in more convenient prices, and this fact is transferred to the trader itself.

How do spreads work?

Once you’ve seen everything you need to know about the spread, let’s review it through an example to get a complete understanding of how spreads work. For example, suppose we carry out a long transaction in EUR/USD. The prices offered by the broker are as follows:

Bid (Offer): 1.1044

Ask (Demand): 1,1046

The spread is 2 pips (the difference of both prices)

If the trader wants to buy the pair EUR/USD you will have to pay 1.1046 dollars for each euro purchased. If you wish to sell it, the broker will pay you $1,1044 for each euro sold. Suppose the trader wants to buy three micro-lots (30,000 euros). The value of each pip will be 3 dollars (30,000 x 0,0001). If the spread is 2 pips, its value will be 6 dollars. This amount will be charged to your account at the time of opening the transaction. Therefore, your income statement will show a loss of about €5.43 (depending on the EUR/USD exchange rate).

This loss will be initial, it is necessary to allow the transaction to develop to generate sufficient profits that allow the trader to cover it. When the pair has advanced 2 pips to its advantage, the trader will find himself at the dead-end of the trade, the balance of it will be 0. From there, the trader will start to make profits. If, on the other hand, the transaction develops against you, the own losses of the position will be on this initial loss.

The transaction will be closed immediately when the trader decides, and this cost will be a reward obtained by the broker for providing the service that allows the trader to trade in the market. In this case, we have given as an example a spread of 2 pips, but depending on the currency pair that is intended to trade, it can be much higher and the price must fluctuate more to get to the deadlock.

The importance of understanding spreads

Knowing the spread is of great importance because it is one of the greatest costs that the trader has to face to operate in the markets. Keep in mind how much our broker charges us if the price is in line with the existing conditions in the sector if the service that it provides us justifies the cost of operation if the broker complies with the agreed conditions, etc., is essential. These issues can make the difference between success or failure in our trading.

On the other hand, it will be useful to know how to check and calculate the cost of the spread to define if the conditions are adapted to our style of trading (if we open or close several operations throughout the day or operate with longer time periods) and the assets we normally operate.

Remember that the Forex market does not have a single place, it is traded in different places. It is a decentralised market with no clearinghouse. The trader must contract with reliable and reliable brokers: those that are regulated by prestigious bodies. Keeping in mind everything related to the spread on Forex, as we have been dealing with in these lines, will be of great help to you in order to protect your interests before the broker itself and the aforementioned regulatory bodies.

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Forex Basics

The Correct Way to Set Objectives in Forex

Every time I have read in the various forums dedicated to foreign exchange markets to Forex traders describing their trading methods, it has reached my ears that it is very common to try to gain control over the entire negotiating process by setting targets for virtually all variables. While this could be productive, it may also be too rigid when trading in Forex. In this article, I will try to examine the trading areas to which objectives apply and evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of each to help you define a flexible negotiating strategy.

Number of Operations

It is very common to listen to traders who say they will stop trading after losing or winning a certain number of trades per day. Whether this makes sense or not depends to a large extent on what kind of trading they are conducting. If we are talking about reselling or short-term trading, then this is a psychological defense mechanism that will probably only limit the profitability of an effective trader. However, for the longer-term swing trader or traders, such a rule is probably useful, since if the first three or four patterns fail quickly, forming a winning pattern becomes increasingly unlikely. Moreover, if the loss-making operations take place in the same price area, it is likely not a fruitful area in the near future.

Of course, psychological defense mechanisms can protect us against large losses, even if they are not statistically acceptable, and if the nerves of a trader are altered by the loss of a number of consecutive trades, It’s probably a good idea to stop operating at least for the rest of that session, until you can recover psychologically.

Stop Loss

I often hear traders say that they apply a fixed stop loss of X number of pips, sometimes different from what is defined between currency pairs, and sometimes not. Although this may work, is an error, as the stop loss must shall be defined by technical measurements or only by volatility, both will vary. For scalpers, who usually use a tight stop loss this may not matter as much, but for longer-term traders, it is crucial to have the right stop loss. While I’m on the subject, I’m going to say that in Forex the goal of stop loss is not necessarily going to be the “correct”, but the one necessary to ensure that we get the transactions with the most adjusted profits possible even at the expense of losing a greater number of operations in general.

Objectives of Profits

The objectives of having a certain benefit can be sensible as a good trading method must provide a certain number of winning trades over time. The most important thing is that the profit targets are neither too small nor too large. Something in the range of twice or triple the risk per operation (from the entry point to the stop loss) is usually a good option. However, it may also make more sense to keep up with the pace of the market and let the operations that are doing very well keep running, at least until they show signs of turning. A productive commitment could be to make a profit when targets are reached very quickly, as such moves in Forex are often spikes that fall apart easily, but otherwise, we can apply a trailing stop, if only once the price is close to the goal. It is also very reasonable for-profit objectives to be based on volatility, for example, if a stop loss is more or less a true middle range of any time period being used so that the profit-taking is two or three times the same amount respects the current pattern of market volatility and the instrument it trades.

Pips Per Day/Week/Month

It is very common to know that traders say they have a goal to make X number of pips daily profit, week or month. This is one of the dumbest attitudes you can possibly have in trading, and it is ruthlessly exploited by scammers who promise all sorts of unrealistic goals. It’s not easy to know where to even begin to break with this approach. First, there are times when you might be able to make 1000 pips in a month and then on other occasions where even the most experienced and fast traders fight powerfully just to avoid a loss. Second, a “pip” could be worth twice as much in one currency pair as in another, not to mention that different operations should have different stop loss sizes, so risk units are a significant measure, while pips are not.

Actually, it makes sense not to have profit goals. What makes even more sense is positioning yourself to take advantage of what the market can offer us and this is made much better by being prepared to face a week or a month of losses if necessary. There are few dumber trading practices than pursuing arbitrary objectives with little or no consideration of market conditions.

Risk Per Operation

Many traders have a rule according to which they risk the same percentage of their trading capital in each transaction. This is an excellent rule and it makes sense. A variation, however small, is to risk a little less in operations that look less promising and a little more in operations that look more promising but not by much. An excellent rule of thumb is to make sure that your risk per transaction is not so great that you suffer too much if the operation turns out to be a loser, but not so small that you don’t care at all what happens. This amount can vary greatly depending on individual circumstances.

Trading with Certain Currency Pairs

Sometimes I hear traders say that they only trade with one or two currency pairs like GBP/USD and EUR/USD, which tend to be particularly favorable. It is true that each currency pair has its own peculiar tendencies and it is also true that, depending on the limitations of the time zone, it may make sense to prefer to trade certain currencies that are more active at the time. However, it is absurd to limit oneself. For example, years ago there was a strong movement of several months in the USD/JPY pair. It was easy to make money by going along with that pair, so why restrict yourself? What if your favorite pair just moves? Would you rather stay out of it?

Conclusion

It is usually counterproductive to limit yourself too much in Forex trading. Traders will find greater success by adapting to market conditions rather than by pursuing fixed objectives, although, as we have already seen, there are numerous exceptions. Beginners can have to limit themselves more as they discover they are too inexperienced to manage flexibility properly. The best answer for all traders is to start slowly and carefully be more flexible as they go along.

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Forex Basics

Top 10 Fun Facts About Forex Trading

When it comes to forex and trading, there is loads of information out there, it also has a very rich history, so when we think about it, there are thousands of facts that could be spoken about trading. Today we are going to be looking at some of the fun facts about trading that you may not really know about. Of course, some are very common knowledge, others will be a little more on the subtle side with fewer people, and some may simply be surprising. So let’s take a look at some of the facts about trading.

It’s Been Around for Centuries

Forex and currency exchange has been around for centuries, of course, it never used to be about trading actual currencies. These days we are trading the GBP with the USD, back then we may have been trading some corn for a sheep. Even in biblical times, the Talmud actually records foreign currency exchanges back in biblical times. They record how moneychangers would set up various stalls where they would then change currencies for another while taking a commission for the change. These sorts of exchanges have also been recorded within ancient Egyptian papyri which date back as far as 260 BC.

The Cable

You may know that the GBP/USD currency is known as “the cable”, but do you know why it is called that? It is known as the cable due to the fact that before we had satellite and fiber optic internet, the information used to be passed between the London and New York exchanges with a giant steel cable that passed under the Atlantic ocean and was used to synchronize the rate between different currencies between the two stock exchanges. While it is no longer needed, it still has some use in modern times, but it is no longer used for the synchronization of data as this can be done quickly through more modern means such as fiber and satellite.

The Worst Currency Inflation

You have probably read about it or seen in the news or even social media sites, that the currency inflation rates in Zimbabwe went through the roof, which is out of sync with the rest of the world which often has very subtle movements in the inflation rates. The country experienced one of the worst inflation in record history where the inflation rate went up 6.56 sextillion percent, to put that into perspective, that is over 6,000,000,000,000,000,000,000%, a number that many probably didn’t even know existed. Due to this, Zimbabwe had to completely wipe out the currency and get rid of it, this happened in 2009 and up until 2014, it had to use foreign currencies as its main currency. During the high levels of inflation, the banks in Zimbabwe actually had to limit back withdrawals to Z$500,000 which equated to just $0.25 USD.

There Has Not Been A Collapse

Contrary to belief, there has not actually been a financial collapse that has affected the forex markets, it has caused a bit of movement but there has never been a collapse. Unlike the stock markets which have had a number of crises where the stock values have plummeted and people have lost thousands or even millions. When those same crises have occurred, the forex market managed to withstand it, this is mainly due to the fact that the markets are made up of traders and the prices rely on them, rather than companies and shareholders, this is why those collapses did not affect the forex markets as much and they can potentially withstand anything that happens.

Printing Money

An interesting fact about American banks, before the US Federal Reserve was established back in 1908, pretty much any bank was able to print their own money. The US Federal Reserve put a stop to this as it had the potential to cause mass inflation within the USD currency should the bank have decided to start printing.

Huge Amounts Are Traded

There is an absolutely huge amount of money traded within the forex markets each day, which is why it is the most liquid market in the world. There is an estimated $6.6 trillion being traded every single day. A number that will most likely never be topped apart from the forex markets themselves. No other market comes close and no other market probably ever will.

Challenged by Cryptocurrencies

The current market prices and trade volume of cryptocurrencies is nowhere near that of forex trading, but if there is going to be any sort of market that can actually challenge that of forex it will ultimately end up being the cryptocurrency markets. Currently, the transaction volume is in the tens of billions, far behind the forex markets, but there has been a substantial increase, and it is continuing to increase each year. It will take a long time, many, many years to get anywhere near the same level, but with the constant increase and exponential growth of the cryptocurrency world, there is certainly a chance that the forex markets will be challenged years down the line.

Forex Will Always Be Here

The markets will always be here in one form or another, even if traditional currencies are no longer available and no longer around, there will be some form of currency exchange. The World will never have a single currency, it just would not work due to the different ecosystems and the different natures of the various countries within it. So even if there are not traditional currencies, there will still be a need for the exchange of currencies whatever they are. Due to this, the foreign exchange market will always be there and so there will always be an opportunity to trade one way or another.

The US Market Is Not the Center

Many people, especially those that have seen some of the Hollywood or bigger films about trading and forex will often think that the USA is the center, it is where the most trading happens. When in reality, only around 19% of trades and trade volume takes place in the US, instead, the center of the trading world is actually London, it is predicted that 43% of all forex trading transactions take place in the United Kingdom, and London, making it the main hub for Forex trading.

Millions Required

Forex trading didn’t use to be as accessible as it is today, many years ago before the rise of retail trading brokers, in order to trade you would need to be an institute with a minimum of at least $40 million in order to trade, not something many individuals would be able to do. These days, you can trade for as low as $10 which makes it highly accessible for people all over the world and from pretty much any location that has an internet connection.

Those are some interesting facts about the forex markets, some you probably knew, others you may not have. The emirate is always changing, different things are always happening within them, but one thing is for sure, the markets will be around for a long time to come.

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Forex Trade Types

Short-Term vs Long-Term Forex Trading: The Comprehensive Guide

There are a lot of different strategies out there including things like scalping, day trading, swing trading, trend trading, and position trading. This can make things quite complicated and hard to work out what strategy and style is best for you. These different styles can be further broken down into two different categories, short-term trading, and long-term trading. By combining them into these categories it is easier for us to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of both which makes it easier for you to decide which style may be best for you, and that is exactly what we are going to do in this article.

When you started trading you were probably told to think long term, that trading is a long term prospect and that you should not be expecting quick returns, this is true, but it does not mean that each individual trade needs to be long term. So let’s take a look at some of the advantages and disadvantages of trading a short-term strategy. Short-term styles of trading are often seen as scalpers and day traders, both of which do not hold trades for more than a day.

Advantages of short-term trading styles: The first and most obvious advantage is the fact that you will get your money quicker, a short-term style of trading means that you won’t be holding the trades for long, so you will close them quickly and will get your profits quickly. There is also a huge earning potential when it comes to short-term trading, due to trades being closed quickly, you can place many more trades, meaning that you have more potential trades to make a profit on. High volatility currency pairs may make this style very profitable. There is also a limit to the amount of your capital that is at risk when trading, due to not holding trades for a long time, your capital is regularly freed up for more trades, this also means that you won’t be holding your losing trades for a long time either, thus reducing the amount of risk that your account is under at any one time.

Disadvantages of short term trading styles: One issue with opening and closing a lot of trades quickly is that it can become quite costly, in fact, each trade that you make will have a cost, either an omission or a spread cost when you open up a lot, commissions can start to add up and can eat into your profit potential. We mentioned that you can have a lot of profit potential, the other side of the coin are the losses that you can get too. Opening up a lot of trades, if they all start going the wrong way, you can potentially have a lot of trades that have gone rd and which end up as losses. It can also be quite stressful, you will need to maintain concentration when trading, these are not set and forget strategies, you need to sit there concentrating and making decisions pretty much all the time. The other disadvantage is that it takes up a lot of your time, you need to be actively trading, you ain’t place trades and then walk away, you need to be there and you need to be constantly analysing the markets and external factors that may potentially affect the markets.

Examples of short term trading styles include things like support and resistance where you buy and sell on the support and resistance levels, candlestick patterns also fall into this category, things like inside bars, triangles, pennants, and flags can all be used to help work out trades that can be closed within a few minutes to a few hours. So those are the advantages and disadvantages of short-term trading, let’s now take a look at the advantages and disadvantages of longer-term trading styles.

Advantages of long term trading styles: Trading longer-term strategies can actually save you time, what we mean by this is that they are often set and forget strategies, you place a trade on and then can easily walk away and let it do its thing, you do not need to sit there constantly watching the markets. It can also be less stressful, due to the fact that you are not constantly needing to do anything such as watching the charts. You can also take your time with your analysis, there is no rush and no stress in placing it quickly. Each individual trade can be much more profitable than short-term trading style, this means that you can make as much with a single trade as you would with 10 or 20 from a scalping strategy. These sorts of styles are also cheaper, as you are placing fewer trades, you are also spending less on things like commission which can often eat into your profits. It is also far easier to adjust your trades when news events come out or economic data, making it slightly safer and more resilient to market movements.

Disadvantages of long-term trading styles: There are of course disadvantages to this style of trading, firstly you will be waiting for your profits, it can take a long time for trades to close, from a day to months. It also requires a lot of research and analysis, with this style of trading you are often putting on larger size trades, and so you need to make sure that it is right, you need to put in a lot of time and effort into analysing the markets and other various data sources to ensure that you are putting on the right trade. Some strategies that are considered long-term are things like swing trading and position trading, both of these strategies hold onto trades for a long period of time, sometimes even weeks or months.

So those are the advantages and disadvantages of short and long-term staples of trading. Which one is right for you will depend on your own personality and time constraints. There is no harm in trying a number of different styles until you find the one that is right for you. Hopefully, this has given you an insight into the differences between the two, whichever you decide to stick with for a while to ensure whether that style is right for you or not.

Categories
Forex Psychology

Five Reasons You Need to Stop Stressing About Forex

Forex can be stressful, it’s one of the things that are told to us over and over again especially when things are going the wrong way, but does it need to be stressful? There are things that we can do that help us to reduce the amount of stress that we are put under and ultimately to show us that forex trading really isn’t anything to be stressed about.

Why can it be stressful?

It is important that we understand why trading can be stressful and in the right situation, it can be very stressful. Each and every person will have different feelings and will have different reactions to how the markets are going and also how their individual trading is going. Stress often comes from losses, when we lose it is not a nice feeling, as soon as we take a loss we have lost a bit of our money, money that we like. If that money is money that we actually could not afford to lose, then the stress levels will continue to rise further. For many stress can also come upon us when a trade is in the red, we can see it going the wrong way and this can cause us to worry that we will lose some additional money. Stress can come at any time and so we need to work out how we can work through it and help to reduce it.

Use proper risk management.

Risk management is the cornerstone of any strategy, it is the foundation that is there to basically protect your account. It is there to ensure that you do not lose more than you want to with each trade and ensures that you do not blow your account. When you have it in place it can help to take out a lot of the stress from your trading. Of course, the opposite is also true, if you do not have proper risk management in place then every single trade that you make will have the chance of blowing your account. If You are in that situation every trade then you will be under constant stress every time that you trade. This is why you need things like trading rules, dictating how and when you trade, stop losses to help protect your accounts, and a proper risk to reward ratio, that dictates the maximum loss and profits that you will make with each trade. Knowing the maximum that you can lose on each trade can really help you to stop stressing about them, as you already know how much you could lose.

Take regular breaks.

At times it will be impossible to prevent any stress from building up, so then we will need to try and deal with it. One of the best ways to do this is to simply take a break, breaks are a fantastic way for us to reduce our stress levels. Getting away from what is causing the stress is the first step, it will prevent any new thoughts or new stresses from being added to the equation. Secondly, being away and doing something else will help to take our minds off of things that are already causing us stress. This way we think about something rose, something else that gives us enjoyment or at least doesn’t add to the stress. Doing this regularly can help you to regulate the stress that you are under. Do this regularly, multiple times a day, it is even a good idea to do it even if you aren’t currently experiencing stress. Just ensure that you are not sitting in front of the computer for hours and hours without any breaks. Coming back with a clear and calm mind can really help you to improve your productivity and trading results.

Ensure we trade with money we can afford to lose.

The golden rule of trading and investing, only to trade with money that you can afford to lose. It remains true in this situation too and is certainly a way to help prevent certain stresses that you would otherwise experience. Think about it, you deposit some money that you actually need for your rent as an example, how would you feel as a trade goes into the red? You will be in a constant state of stress and panic, you are about to lose the money that you need for your rent and you won’t be able to say it this month. Why would you put yourself under that? Reduce or completely remove that level of stress by only trading with what you can afford to lose. If it will affect your life, do not trade with it. Also do not borrow money or take a loan in order to trade, that just puts you in debt and you will end up owing a lot of money should things go the wrong way.

Understand that losses are a part of trading.

Losses are a  part of trading, a big part of them, every single person that has ever traded (apart from those that only do a single trade) will have experienced losses, all of the most successful traders in the world have experienced losses and a lot of them. In fact, they are so much a part of trading that we factor them into our trading through our trading strategies and risk management. Ever heard of the risk to reward ratio? This is where we decide how much we will risk with each trade and how much we want to win. Knowing this means that we know exactly how much we might lose with each trade and that each trade is actually a fantastic way for us to learn from what we have done and for us to improve. Look at why the trade lost and what we can do differently. 

Those are five of the reasons why you should stop stressing about your trading. We understand that trading can be stressful, of course, it can, anything to do with money can be. It is important that we do what we can to reduce those stresses, if things get too stressful it can make us want to quit entirely, so try and include and think about the things that we mentioned above, it will help you to be calmer when trading and in the long run will enable you to be a much more successful trader.

Categories
Forex Trading Platforms

A Complete Guide to the cTrader Trading Platform

cTrader is one of the biggest competitions to the dominating MetaTrader series of trading platforms, back in 2018 they won the online trading platform of the year award. Created by Spotware Systems Ltd and released back in 2010. It is packed full of features and customisation options. Ctrader has started to be picked up by more brokers that are looking for alternatives to the MetaTrader platforms which in turn gives a bit more choice for traders and customers.

So we are going to have a look through exactly what cTrader has to offer and what we can actually do with it.

When we first load up the platform, we are presented with quite a busy-looking screen, right in the centre of the screen are the charts, sitting just below is the position, order, and history tabs. To the right, there is a selection of panels including orders, calendars, and various information about the symbol currently on the chart. To the left of the platform is the list of symbols available to trade. It is a very busy screen and a lot of information is being presented which can be a little overwhelming, but let’s have a look and break down each individual section.

Trade

The trade tab is where you will be spending most of your time and allows you to actually make your trades and orders, it is made up of a number of different sections which we have outlined below.

Charts

Initially, the charts can look a little confusing, at the top of the chart window are some tabs with any of the currently open charts and the assets within them. To the left is a number of different options. The top two are the zoom-in and out buttons. Below that is the option for the sort of chart that you want, the current options are Bar, Candlestick, Line and Dot charts. Below this is the option for your indicators, there are a lot of built-in indicators that you can add to the chart. Then there are options for cBots which is the equivalent of an expert advisor for the MetaTrader series. You are able to add drawings to the charts and the ability to hide or show them. Finally, there is a selection of timeframes, there are a lot of them ranging from 1 minute to months, you can set seven primary ones as buttons, the rest can be selected on the tab at the top of the charts.

Orders

To the right of the platform, there is an order box, this is where we will be able to place new trades and pending orders. You are able to make market executions, limit orders, stop orders, and stop-limit orders. When making a market execution trade, you can simply put in the desired size that you want, then select the stop loss and take profit levels. The nice thing about cTrader is that you can select the stop loss and take profits based on pips, estimate price, balance, and profit rather than just price, you can also select to have a trailing stop which will follow the price up and down to allow a bit of wiggle room. When making an order it is exactly the same except that you will need to input the desired price for the order rather than just hitting buy or sell. 

Position Monitor

Once a trade or order has been placed, it will move down into the positions monitor at the bottom of the middle of the platform, there is also a tab for the current pending orders. This window will show you all the trades that you currently have open, it displays a lot of information about them and it can be ordered by using any of the titles within it. The panel also shows the current balance, equity, margin used, free margin, margin level, and various other statistics. 

There is an additional tab for the account history which shows past trades and orders that have already been closed or canceled, there is a price alert tab for any alerts that you may have setup. The transaction tab looks at deposits and withdrawals. The final two tabs are regarding the journal and cBot log which details different actions that have been taken, either by you manually or automatically by a cBot.

Watchlist

To the left of the platform is a panel that is currently displaying all of the available symbols or your chosen ones should you wish to limit them. It gives you the bid and ask prices of the ones displayed in a quick and easy access view. You can double-click on any of the assets in order to open up the chart in the middle of the platform. If you right-click you are able to add something to your watchlist, create a new order, or open up the chart.

Calendar

The calendar can be found on the right of the platform, there is a  tab at the top for the extended calendar, otherwise, there is a  smaller version if you scroll down the right toolbar section. This gives you an overview of upcoming news events and can give you an indication of what kings of effect the events may have on the markets. This is useful if you are trading pairs with major news events coming up.

Automate

The automate button which is initially found at the bottom left of the platform allows you to create an automated script of cBot, this is the same as an Expert Advisor when using MetaTrader 4 or 5. You can use a number of different prebuilt bots or you are able to create one yourself as long as you know a little bit about coding.

Copy

The copy tab allows you to launch cTrader Copy, this is a system that allows you to view and then copy other traders, it is similar to the signals section within MT4 and MT5. You can look at the past performances, look at what sorts of risks that you are taking and if you like the look of it, you are able to copy their trades into your own account. If you feel that you have a great strategy, then you can actually apply to have your trades added to the system for people to copy, getting a cut of any commissions for each trade taken.

Analyse

The analysis tab allows you to take a detailed look at the history of your account, it will detail all the different trades and orders that were placed so you can take a look and analyse their performance. It is a great way to work out what is working and what is not, plenty of information is available so it is well worth using.

Settings

The last major section for us to look at is the settings, this is where you are able to alter a few different things about the platform. The General tab allows you to change some colour themes and various other basic interface options. There are also startup options, asset options around lots or units, market watch, notifications, automation options, email, and proxy options. Nothing that will drastically change anything, but some can be useful depending on your preferences.

Anything else?

The only other thing to note is the market hours section which tells you which markets are currently open and when they will open or close, this can be handy for avoiding larger spreads or jumps in volatility. There is also a symbol info panel, detailing a lot of information about the currently selected symbol such as assets involved, commissions, swings, and more.

Summary

There are a lot of fantastic features with cTrader, things like the choice of pips or monetary value for stop losses and take profits, plenty of information about each asset, and many more, the main issue is the overcrowded user interface, however, you should now have a slightly better understanding of what each section does and what is actually available within the cTrader platform.

Categories
Forex Basic Strategies

Top 9 Ideas You Can Steal from the World’s Best Traders

As with anything in life, when it comes to looking at the experts, there are always little parts of what they do that we can steal, or at least we can use what they know. This is no different when it comes to forex trading, they are experts for a reason after all, so why not take what they know or what they do and implement it into your own trading? So we are going to be looking at 10 things that expert traders do or what they think and ways that you can then implement that into your own trading.

“Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected.” – George Soros

What George is basically saying here is that the markets are constantly changing, you won’t make money by trading what has already happened, instead, you will need to look to the possibilities of what could happen next, if you are able to predict the future movements then you will make money, events that are not expected will help you to make even more as you will be one of hen few trading it.

“Play the market only when all factors are in your favor. No person can play the market all the time and win. There are times when you should be completely out of the market, for emotional as well as economic reasons.” – Jesse Livermore

This is all about patience and discipline, with near traders you often see them placing trades when they probably shouldn’t, this advice and way of reading is great as it means that you will only be placing trades in line with your strategy and avoiding bad trades outside of it. Only trade when the conditions are right and try not to force any trades.

Many investors make the mistake of buying high and selling low while the exact opposite is the right strategy.” – John Paulson

A pretty obvious one but also an important one. Many traders know that you should buy low and sell high, yet so many of them get caught up in a large movement, something has risen a lot, traders then begin to jump on only for it to turn. They go into their position at the top, now the only way is down. Do not jump onto something just because others are or because something is rising, ensure that your analysis is correct and that it is the right time to trade.

“That was when I first decided I had to learn discipline and money management. It was a cathartic experience for me, in the sense that I went to the edge, questioned my very ability as a trader, and decided that I was not going to quit. I was determined to come back and fight. I decided that I was going to become very disciplined and businesslike about my trading.” – Paul Tudor Jones

Risk management is one of the most important things that you can do as a trader. Having the belief in yourself to continue is fantastic after losses, but you can reduce those losses by using proper risk management techniques. So ensure that you use them each time that you trade.

“I’ve certainly done it – that is, made counter-trend initiations. However, as a rule of thumb, I don’t think you should do it.” – Richard Dennis

It is considered a bad move to trade against the trend, hence the saying of trade. Some people do it but if they are successful it often comes down to a bit of luck that the markets turned at the right time. As a rule of thumb, you should be trading the trend, not trading against it.

“I’ve learned many things from him [George Soros], but perhaps the most significant is that it’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.” – Stanley Druckenmiller

Stanley is right, it is vital that you have the right risk to reward ratio in place. You need to ensure that you are limiting your losses and also having the appropriate winning margins too. If you do, you can technically be profitable with just a 20% or 30% win rate (depending on your risk to reward ratio). So it is not about winning all your trades, it is about ensuring that you are profitable.

“I just wait until there is money lying in the corner, and all I have to do is go over there and pick it up. I do nothing in the meantime. Even people who lose money in the market say, “I just lost my money, now I have to do something to make it back.” No, you don’t. You should sit there until you find something.” – Jim Rogers

Another one about being patient and it is right. You need to be patient, do not try and force your money to make money, in other words, do not try and force trades. You need to wait until the right market conditions are there, you need to wait until the right trade is there, just do not force it. Leave your money alone until the right trade is there.

“Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble” – Warren Buffet

While he is incredibly successful, Warren Buffet does like to take risks as he stated in this quote. He is basically saying that when there is a really good opportunity or a really good trade, you should put more into it than you would other trades. This increases the profitability of that opportunity, but it does also increase the risks, so only do this one if you are absolutely certain, but then again, nothing is guaranteed.

“I believe that the biggest problem that humanity faces is an ego sensitivity to finding out whether one is right or wrong and identifying what one’s strengths and weaknesses are.” – Ray Dalio

Many traders just look at the markets rather than themselves, yet the main area that we can often improve is within us and the actions that we take. You need to look at yourself, work out what parts of trading you are good at and what parts you are not so good at, that will give you a direction and work that you need to do with yourself in order to improve your own understanding and abilities when trading.

Those are some of the things that experts say and do, you can try and implement some of them into your own trading, they could be helpful, maybe you are already doing some of them which is great. Take what you can from the experts, they know what they are doing and they are doing it well, but do not blindly follow them, be sure that you create your own trading style and your own instincts, as you want to be around and successful long after they have gone.

Categories
Forex Basics

The Most Common Complaints About Forex, and Why They’re Completely Bunk

There are a lot of complaints when it comes to forex trading, and we mean a lot. Many of them are completely legitimate while others are based on a single opinion or something that someone may have experienced. Whatever the complaint is, there will surely be ways to get around it or to help out to prevent those things from happening again in the future. It is because of this that we are going to be looking at some of the most common complaints that we hear about forex and the reasons why those complaints probably should not be happening.

It’s Too Hard

Forex trading is not hard, complicated yes, but not hard. We say this even with the knowledge that the majority of people that trade will lose money. People seem to put the term hard on everything these days, forex is not hard, it just takes time, and that’s for some people what makes things hard. Yet in reality, it is not hard at all, all you are technically doing is placing a trade, choosing whether it goes up or down and that is it, it is incredibly easy and quick to do. Yet people refer to it as being hard because of the amount of time and effort that you need to put in in order to be good at it and in order to know which way you should be placing your trade. Yet it is still not hard, it just takes time, time does not make things hard, hard shoulders mean that it takes a lot of effort in order to do the thing that you are trying to do, and that is playing the trade, which we have already discussed, is actually very simple.

People simply do not want to put in the time that it takes in order to be a better trader, they just want to get on with it and that is a mistake. If you try to place trades blind you will make losses, those losses will of course make it harder to make profits, but again, that does not make trading hard, it simply means that you need to put in more time, not more effort.

It’s All A Scam

Forex trading is not a scam, if it was there wouldn’t be over a trillion dollars being traded every single day. Forex is basically just a way of exchanging foreign currencies for each other. It has been happening for hundreds of years in one form or another and will happen for hundreds more. Businesses are run off of it and if it was a scam, the majority of businesses that we have today would have disappeared a long time ago.

We have to admit that within the forex trading world there are a lot of scams, but these are from individuals, people who are setting out to try and take your money. These are the people offering ridiculous Reuters on your investments or certain brokers that have been set up to be predatory, trying to milk money out of you. It is important to know that those are individuals and not the industry as a whole. The industry is completely legitimate, you can do it yourself, go to a foreign exchange shop, buy some currency, hold it for a while, and trade it back, you are doing the same thing on the markets, just in a more convenient way and for more money. Fores is not a scam. It wouldn’t be here if it were, it is as simple as that.

It’s Not for Individuals

Many years ago this would be completely true, you used to need millions of dollars before you could even consider trading on the global forex markets, this made it so that only the biggest businesses and institutions could take part in the markets. These days though, this is certainly not the situation that we are in. These days anyone can trade, all that it takes is a computer or mobile phone, an internet connection, and a balance of as little as $10. That is all that you need to trade which is ridiculous and incredibly accessible. There are no more excuses available for it not being easy to get into. You can go from no account to your first trade being placed in the matter of about 10 minutes with some brokers. There are millions of people trading from their bedroom at home and things will only continue to get easier.

It Takes Too Long

We mentioned above when we discussed forex being hard that it takes time, this is true, but it certainly does not take too much time, if you are finding that it is, then that is something that you as an individual are doing wrong. Actual trading, placing trades, and the analysis for each individual trade does not take a lot of time, this can be done in a few minutes up to 30 minutes, which should be more than enough time to place a trade. What can take a while is the initial learning, but that does not mean that you need to do it all at once which for some reason is what a lot of people try to do. When you try and cram in all your learning into one session then yes, it will take a while and it will be boring. Instead spread it out, learn one thing a day, do not bog yourself down with books and reading for hours at a time. If you spread it out, it will still take the same amount of time in regard to actual learning, but it will be far less boring for you and don’t feel like such a chore or that it is taking up so much of your time.

Those were some of the more common complaints that we see about trading forex, as you can see, the majority of them are simply not true, in the past there may have been a little more relevance to a lot of them, but as things have progressed they are becoming less and less an issue, but they are still things that people like to complain about.

Categories
Forex Basics

How to Trade Forex the RIGHT Way

There is no actual right or wrong way to trade forex, there are however certain things that you can do that can make things a little easier or a little safer, these are the things that people would consider the right way to trade forex. Each individual trader will have their own ideas as to what it is that they need to do in order to trade things the right way. We are going to be looking at a few of the things that are widely considered as the right things to do when we trade. Some may be relevant to you and some may not be, but they are simply what many consider the right things to do.

The first thing comes down to your education, there is such a thing as too little information, but also too much information. There are three types of traders, those that learn the very basics and then jump in, those that try to learn everything before they touch their trading account, and those that learn as they go along. We would say that there is no right way to do it, but there are certainly wrong ways. Firstly, those that simply jump in with very little information, are setting themselves up to fail, you cannot trade with very little info, you won’t know how to manage your risks, or what certain events or patterns mean.

Then there are those that try to read too much, this can simply confuse you, there is a lot of contradictory information out there, info that makes it hard to work out what is right and what is wrong if there is a right and wrong. But if you try to learn everything, you will end up never trading, there is just too much information out there. You need to find a common ground, you need experience, such as a demo account, but you also need to read and learn a little about trading before going live. So try and find a balance of practical and theoretical learning.

You need to learn about risk management, this is how you will protect your account from losses and from the markets moving against you because they certainly will move against you at one point and on a regular basis. Your risk management plan should contain things like your risk to reward ratio, it should also contain details of where you stop loss and take profit levels are to be set. Your trade sizes should also be noted here, this will mean that you know exactly what size trades you will be making. All of these things combined work together to help protect your account, they enable you to trade in a much safer way. This sort of risk management is what can separate a successful trader from a trader that has just blown their account. So if you want to trade things the right way, you need to ensure that you have your risk management in place for the very start.

Learn one strategy at a time and learn one currency pair at a time. This goes along with the education that we mentioned but it is important that you concentrate on a single strategy to begin with. This will enable you to learn it completely and to properly understand it. If you start trying to learn multiple different strategies at once then it can cause you a lot of confusion. In fact, it can make you completely mess up the strategies when trying to implement them. We have seen this countless times in the past.

The same goes for learning different currency pairs, each one behaves differently, as if they have their own personalities, some of them you can interchange, but others you cannot use the same strategies on one as you can the other. You need to get to know the way they move and the way they react to different news events. Once you have grips of your first strategy and your first currency pair, you can then begin to try and branch out into additional ones.

Set your goals and expectations, many people come into trading with the idea that they will make ridiculous amounts of money very quickly, of course, is not the case and is not realistic. You need to set your goals at an appropriate level, think about things like your current capital and account balance, the strategy you are using, and other risk management things that you have in place. You should combine all of these to make more realistic goals. If you see them too high, then you will be risking too much with each trade, not something that anyone would recommend, so set your expectations at the right level and it will keep you grounded and will help to keep you consistent with your trading and risks.

Keep a trading journal, something you have probably been told before and also one of the things that a lot of people hate doing, simply because it takes a bit of time to do with each trade. You need to write down what you are trading, why you are trading it, and different things like the profit and loss, trade times, and more. Jot down as much information as you can to ensure that you have that information available. You can then use this journal to analyse your trades, to work out what you are doing well and what you need to improve on. It also helps you to work out whether you are sticking to your trading plan or putting on trades outside of it. You won’t know any of this if you don’t have a trading journal, so ensure that you have one, most successful traders have one, so there is no reason why you should not have one either.

The things that we have listed above are simply the basics, here are of course a lot of other things that you can be doing to trade in what you would perceive as the proper way, but this is all relative to the person that is trading. Ensure that you do at least some of them and you will be on the right track to becoming a profitable and successful trader.

Categories
Forex Basics

Signs You’re Actually Becoming a Forex Trading Expert

We all hope that one day we can be considered an expert trader. Being an expert will mean that we know exactly what we’re doing, we know how to profit and we know how to remain safe as a trader. We all want to get there but it doesn’t happen overnight, it takes time and we will slowly start to see signs that we are on the right track and that we are slowly becoming expert traders. So let’s take a look at some of the signs that we may see that will show us that we are becoming expert forex traders.

Profits are not your main priority: When new traders start, there is normally just one thing on their mind, how much money they can make and how they are going to make it. Money is the main driving force behind their desire to trade and it is what will motivate them to learn and trade. For an expert, that priority will begin to shift, you will start to focus on securing and protecting what you already have over making more profits. You will understand that it is more important to stay in the game than to make profits, and you will focus on keeping what you have and adding to it rather than placing too many risks.

You are naturally looking at the news: Looking at the various news sites and economic calendars is not really something that newer traders do, yet when you are becoming an expert trader this should be something that comes very naturally to you. The start of each day, the evening before, anytime is a good time to check the news and the economic calendars. It can provide you with a lot of information. Eventually, you will do it naturally without even thinking about it. 

You follow your rules perfectly: The trading plan that you have created will have a number of different rules setup, these rules are what tells you what you should be trading and when. When we are new we will still get some of them wrong, meaning that we will be placing bad trades. But as we grow as traders and move more towards the title of an expert trader, we will begin to reduce the number of times that we go against them, when we no longer make mistakes surrounding the rules, we can consider that part of our training to be at an expert level.

You maximise the profits on each trade: Sometimes it is not about placing more trades, for many newer traders we see the profits and so close the trades for that profit, only for the market to continue in the same direction. An expert trader will capitalise on this, if a take profit level is set, based on further analysis this can be moved further, you can also use things like trailing stop losses that can help you to maximise profits a little bit more. You will now be trying to squeeze out more from each trade rather than placing more trades.

You no longer blindly follow others: When we start out trading, we don’t really know what we are doing, due to this, we often take the words of others with a little more attention, often we will simply place trades because someone that we think is an expert has placed them without really knowing why they have been placed in the first place. Instead, we no longer blindly follow others now, instead, we make our own trades, or if we do take another’s trading idea, we know why they are trading it and have a full understanding of the trade before we place it.

You find your exit point before placing a trade: When we start all we really think about is the entry, how do we get in, we will then think about getting out once we are in profit or loss. This is simply not what an expert would do, instead, we can sense that we are on our way to becoming an expert when we start to think about the exit point before the trade is made, sometimes before the entry point is even decided. The exit point is what will make our profit, but also to protect the account, so it is vital that we know where this will be before we place the trade.

You no longer dwell on negative days: We all hate bad days, we all hate negative trades. What we often do is find it hard to move on, those negative days or trades stay in the back of our mind, maybe we go to sleep thinking about it and wake up with it fresh in our minds, this can then influence our next day’s trading. An expert trader will not do this, they will accept that the losses were there and that they happen. You now need to move onto the next trade without thinking about the loss anymore, this way an expert trader will not be influenced by their previous losses.

You understand that not having a trade can be a good thing: You do not always need to trade, for a new trader you want to be trading all the time as that is how you make money, what they do not seem to understand is that not having a position is still a position. If there are no good opportunities for a trade, you should not try to force one, instead, you need to be patient. Not having a trade is keeping your account safe from losses, so as an expert you understand this and are happy to sit and wait for the right opportunity to arrive.

You still understand that there is still a lot to learn: You can never know everything, in fact, you can never know a lot, new traders may get the basics and then stop learning, but an expert will do the opposite. An expert will know that there is always more to learn, so much so that they spend a lot of their time still learning. New strategies, new assets or currencies, pretty much every aspect of trading has an unbelievable amount of information that is constantly evolving… So a sign of becoming an expert is the fact that you are able to continue to learn and still have the drive to continue to learn.

You never trade without a stop loss: Stop losses are there to protect your account, you should be using them with every trade. New traders don’t always use them but if you want to be considered as an expert trader, then you need to use them with every single trade, it is as simple as that.

You no longer dream about your trades: A weird one no doubt, but when we first start out we dream about our trading, we dwell on our losses and they often affect our dreams, or we dream of placing that one amazing trade that makes us rich. As an expert, you don’t really have these same dreams, your trading stays with your trading, when you step away from the trading terminal, your thoughts of trading do not come with you and so when you dream, you no longer dream of your trading.

So those are just some of the signs that will help to show that you are becoming an expert trader. There are of course other things and we have to ask ourselves how we would actually define an expert trader. You can never be perfect, but you can certainly start to do things a little more naturally that are in line with your strategy, that protect your account and keep you updated, as long as you are trading well, you can be considered an expert trader.

Categories
Forex Basics

How To Practice Forex Trading Without Any Financial Risk

Let’s make something perfectly clear before we say anything else, you cannot trade without risk, there is no way to make any money without there being any form of risk. Risk is what enables us to have rewards and so when you trade there will be risks. Now that we have made that clear, there are of course a number of different things that you can do to help reduce the risks that you will be taking when you trade. Managing your risk is one of the key elements for being a successful trader and so it is certainly something that you should be putting a lot of emphasis on when you create your trading plans and of course when you actually begin trading.

The first thing that you can do is to work out how large the trades that you are going to be putting on are. Of course, this needs to be decided in line with your overall account capital. If you have a balance of $1,000 and a leverage of 100:1, there is no point in trying to put on huge trade sizes like 1 lot or even 0.5 lots, this will only result in disaster. You need to limit your trade sizes, the lower they are, the less risk you are putting your account under. If you are looking for the lowest amount of risk, then you will want to go for the lowest trade size which for many brokers is 0.01 lots. Of course, this will then limit your profit potential, so really you are going to want to look for a happy medium, somewhere with low risk but somewhere that also offers returns. In relation to just risk though the lower the trade size the better.

You then need to work out where your stop losses are going to be, yes you will be using stop losses. They are the primary way and method that we as traders can use to help limit our potential losses. If we do not use them, then even the smallest trade has the potential to blow an account, it will take a lot but it is possible, so why take the risk? Putting in your stop losses is a sure-fire way to protect your account, when your trade goes the wrong way and reaches the level of the stop loss, the trade will automatically close. Yes, it will be at a loss, but it is a controlled loss and one that was taken into consideration before the trade was even placed. What is important is that we removed any potential risk for further losses and have limited things to be within our strategy criteria.

We spoke about leverage near the start of this article, it is important to get a good understanding of how it works and if you want to keep the risks on your account as low as possible, then you will also want to keep your leverage as low as possible. Leverage allows you to trade with more spending power than the capital in your account, this, in turn, increases the profit potential of the account, which is the main selling point of leverage. What they don’t tell you is how this leverage also increases the loss potential of your trades too, the more leverage that you use the higher the losses can be with each trade and a loss can take away a much larger sum of money than it would have with less leverage. So if you have the balance for it, go for a lower leverage in order to keep risks low.

Pick the right currency pair to trade, it’s probably not a surprise to you that different currency pairs offer different levels of risk, there are three main categories, the majors, minors (crosses), and exotics. The major pairs have the least volatility and the most liquidity, the minors are in the middle and the exotics offer the most volatility and least liquidity. Due to this, it is far more profitable and also risks to trade the exotic pairs, but it takes a lot more skill to do it successfully. Due to this, it is recommended that those looking for lower levels of risk should look to trade the major pairs, things like EURUSD are extremely liquid which means that their movements are less rapid and sudden. They are easier to predict and if something does happen, you often have more time to react than with the exotics. So if you are looking to trade with lower risk, go for the major currency pairs.

One of the riskiest things that you can do as a trader is to trade during times of economic news, there are certain news events that new traders are warned away from, things like the US non-farm payroll, you should not be trading during the times of these announcements. They have the ability to cause large movements in the markets and even economic experts get their predictions wrong on a regular basis, if they get it wrong, then there is a good chance you will too. In order to avoid this risk completely, simply do not trade during the news events Obviously there is unannounced news that comes up every now and then which is unavoidable, but as long as you avoid what you can, you will be reducing the risk that you account is being put under.

The last point that we quill look at is the fact that you need to ensure that your expectations and your goals are realistic. If you have come into trading thinking that you will make thousands each month with a small starting balance then you are mistaken. Many people make it seem like you can and many people probably have, but they are risking a lot with every single trade in order to do this and have most likely lost countless accounts in the process of getting their one successful one. Bring your expectations down and you will remain motivated and feel less like you need to risk more to achieve those goals.

Those are some of the things that you can do to help reduce the risks that your account is being put under, remember that it is impossible to trade with no risks at all, there will always be some otherwise there would be no way to make any money. If you hate risks, then you will need to do what you can to help reduce them, but remember that by reducing your risks you are also reducing your profit potential, so the key is to find the middle ground where you are happy with both the risks and the potential profits that you can make.

Categories
Forex Indicators

The True Benefits of the ATR Indicator

Instead of using your own judgment, some statistical measures of price volatility are available. One of the most popular is the ATR indicator (Average True Range), which measures the average movement for a given exchange torque ( or action, raw material, etc.) for a given period.

What Is the ATR Indicator?

The ATR indicator moves down and up as the price of an asset becomes larger or smaller. This indicator is based on price developments, so the reading is in dollars. For example, in share trading, a reading of 0.23 of the ATR means the price ranges from $0.23 on each price bar. In the currency market, the ATR will show you pips, then 0.0025 is the same as 25 pips.

A new reading of the ATR indicator is calculated as each period passes. On a one-minute graph, a new ATR reading is calculated every minute. In a daily graph, a new ATR reading is calculated every day. All these readings are plotted as a line continues, so traders can see how the volatility has changed as time goes on.

Since the ATR is based on how much an asset moves, the reading of an asset is not comparable with other isolation assets. To better understand the indicator, here is how we calculated it.

Finding the A, or average first requires finding the true range (True Range TR).

The TR is the largest of the following:

  • The current maximum less previous closure
  • Current minimum minus previous closure
  • Current maximum minus the current minimum

Whether the number is positive or negative, it doesn’t matter. The highest absolute value is the one used in the calculation.

The values are recorded every day, and then you get an average. If the ATR is averaged over the previous 14 periods, then the formula is as follows:

ATR = [( ATR Previous x 13) [ TR Current] / 14

Continue reading about the ATR or start playing a little with a risk-free demo account and see for yourself how the ATR indicator works in real-time.

Setting the ATR Indicator

Typically, the default parameter is 14 periods, that is, 14 days on the daily graph, 14 hours on the hour graph, and so on, but as time goes on you want to experiment with the parameters. Knowing the ATR for a certain period, traders can choose to place a stop loss at a certain percentage of that range, based on the entry point. Let’s take an example, traders with confidence in the trend direction who want to prevent their stop loss from being reached would place the stop loss at 80 or 100 percent of the ATR away from the entry point near strong support. They will accept the long loss if that stop is reached because they believe that the probability of that happening is slim.

Traders with lower confidence and greater risk aversion that they want less loss (even if there are more of them because the stop is reached) can place their stop closer, perhaps 50 percent or less from the ATR indicator outside the point of entry. When you know the usual volatility for a given period of time through ATR, you have a better idea of how far you want your stop loss fixed or dynamic to prevent a random movement from reaching it.

Let’s use an example of how to use the ATR indicator to measure volatility and place a fixed or dynamic stop loss command.

Measuring Volatility

We refer to the example above. In the figure below, we show the same daily graph EURUSD showing the daily candles for the transaction’s entry date on August 11, but this time we include the ATR, which shows that for the past 14 days or candles daily, The average price range was around 210 pips. Those interested in how the ATR is calculated can view it online.

However, if we wanted to decrease the chances of reaching a stop loss in exchange for a risk of further loss if the transaction turned against us, we could have established the stop loss at a distance of 50 percent or more from the ATR, 105 pips, below the point of entry or some different percentage of the ATR.

The point here is that there are two different ways to determine how far you are going to establish your stop loss. In this example of fórex trading, we use the most recent minimums as a guide while we could have used the ATR. Much depends on factors such as your appetite for risk, market conditions, and confidence in the transaction. For example, if you caught a retraction to strong support in a strong general trend, you may be more confident that that upward trend will return and allow a wider stop loss to prevent it from being triggered by random price movements. When you have less confidence, you can keep the stops tighter.

Setting an ATR Indicator in MetaTrader 4/5

This section shows how to configure the ATR indicator in MT5. Assume that you have opened a graph.

Adds an ATR indicator and sets the parameter for this indicator:

  • Click on Insert and move your mouse over Indicators and Trend
  • Click ATR indicator
  • Configuring the common parameters

After you have completed the above step, the settings menu appears. Most indicators can be controlled by many common parameters.

There are two types of parameters:

  1. Indicator calculations: e.g. the number of periods used by the ATR indicator (you don’t need to worry about this much in the beginning)
  2. Display of an indicator: e.g. How will it look? The thickness and colour of the lines, etc.

To change the indicator settings directly on the graph a while later: Right-click on the ATR indicator (you will have to be very exact on the indicator line to see the menu below)

Choose the ATR Properties: The menu parameter appears again where you can change the indicator.

To delete the ATR indicator: Right-click on the indicator you want to delete (you will have to be very exact on the indicator line to get the menu below). Click ‘Delete Indicator’ and the indicator will disappear from your chart.

Final Words

The ATR indicator is not directional like the MACD or RSI, rather as a unique indicator of volatility that reflects the degree of interest or disinterest in a movement. Strong movements, in either direction, are usually accompanied by long ranges, or long and true ranges. This is really true at the beginning of a movement. Not-so-inspiring movements can be accompanied by relatively narrow ranks. As such, the ATR can be used to validate the enthusiasm behind a movement or a rupture. An upward reversal with an increase in ATR would show a strong buying pressure and the reinforcement of a reversal. A break in bearish support with an increase in the ATR would show strong downward pressure on sales and reinforce the break-up of the support.

Understanding how to read the ATR indicator is important, but if you want some help, Metatrader offers a very useful indicator toolkit. Play a little on a demo fórex account and see for yourself how the ATR indicator can give you a lot of money.

Categories
Crypto Forex Psychology

The Impact of Psychology On Cryptocurrency Trading

The cryptocurrency market does not follow the rules of technical and fundamental analysis. Only psychology works here. Who will be the strongest: institutional investors, agitating markets with capital, or private investors, who know how to generate profits from these short-term price changes. The psychological patterns of cryptocurrency movements can form the basis for successful strategies. You will learn from this article how to develop a psychological strategy for operating cryptocurrencies.

Psychology of Operation

Cryptocurrencies make up a market that grows day by day. Following the announcement of BTC futures to begin trading at CBOE and CME, bitcoin increased from $12,000 to $17,000, breaking the 60% level of capital in the entire market. Other cryptocurrencies are also growing fast; total market capital grew more than 30% over two weeks, reaching the level of $500 billion. Such a rise attracts more and more traders to this market, who immediately face the need to choose a correct strategy.

It is possibly difficult to make predictions for cryptocurrency with technical analysis, so trading strategy indicators are not relevant here. The market is today immature to use indicators in historical periods. Sometimes it is possible to follow the formation of graphic figures (patterns), but quotes are often unpredictable. One can apply fundamental analysis, but even so, the movement of price is difficult to predict. For example, bitcoin, following news about the futures release, is constantly rising with moderate fixes. IOTA, following positive news from developers in late November, grew 2.5 times over a week, but then fell 40% in just one day, from $5.48 to $3.11.

Operating with fundamental analysis is complicated by several factors. First, there is no economic calendar. Second, there is no knowledge about how the news will influence quotes. Example: deep drop followed by a rise in the price of bitcoin after canceling Segwit2x; investors did not understand at first how to interpret the news. The cryptocurrency market is driven by private and institutional investor psychology. That’s what used to be used to develop a trading strategy.

Psychological Strategy

Most cryptocurrencies continue to increase the price fast, fewer and fewer investors want to set the profits. More and more traders invest in cryptocurrencies, but reserves are declining. In some markets, the margin is 20-25% and transaction fees make trading flat. First, it seems to be one more bubble. Institutional investors deliberately push the price up, aiming at a market explosion after setting positions.

Some considerations about how to make money with cryptocurrencies:

Study the amount of market demand and provisions. Don’t do long-term operations as you can reverse the market trend. If we have an order that will cover more than 20% of the total market volume it is better not to invest. A trader’s goal is not to create profits in the temporary growth of an unpopular currency with low liquidity. The trader’s goal is to minimize risks. Diversify risks. Fiduciary inflow is not as significant as it used to be. Money flows from one cryptocurrency to another.

There is a similar situation when Segwit2x was canceled. Then, after the collapse of the BTC, the BCH ratio immediately increased. Analyze the correlation of cryptocurrencies and study the currencies with inverse relation (e.g., BTC and ECH). If we find a growing market, you will win anyway; if you transfer from one currency to another, you will insure against potential losses.

Buy cheap. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile. A 20%-25% asset drop is considered normal, so buy when the price is being corrected. If a currency falls more than 30%, then investors will not trust it. Study the volume of trading in markets. You can do it in market sections on the Coin Market Cup website. If trading is not equally assigned, there is a significant excess of trading volume in a single market, which could indicate that someone is deliberately raising the price of a cryptocurrency by creating an expectation around a currency to raise its price and then sell the asset at a higher price.

Don’t go into the market that’s going too high. A rapid rise (20%-25% per day) compared to the previous day may indicate that the rise is speculative and is likely to be followed by a prompt correction. The same was with IOTA and Ripple. Don’t get carried away by ordinary emotions. Communication forums are useful for Forex but not for the cryptocurrency market, where everything is unpredictable. By joining the overview you can get caught by big investors, who use rumors as a tool to manipulate.

Ignore the time corrections. However, cryptocurrency price charts seem like a Ponzi scheme and the goal of traders is to withdraw money in due time, there is no reason for the cryptocurrency market to collapse. For example, analysts predict that bitcoin will break the $20,000 level and grow more.

Categories
Forex Indicators

Everything You Need to Know About Using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)

Moving averages identify trends when filtering price fluctuations. Under this idea, Gerald Appel, an analyst and portfolio manager from New York, developed a more advanced indicator. He called it Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator MACD, which consists of not one but three exponential moving averages. It is seen in the graphs as two lines, whose intersections between them provide trading signals. One is called a MACD line and the other is called a signal line.

This oscillator has been involved in some controversy as to its classification. Mainly because there are analysts who classify it as a trend tracking indicator and others who consider it a follower of the cycle. We can be sure of the following: we are talking about the most effective oscillator after long-term cycles, hence the fact that it can be considered a follower of short- and medium-term trends.

Creating MACD

The MACD indicator originally consists of two lines: a solid line (called a MACD line) and a “strokes” line (called a signal line or signal). The MACD line develops from two exponential moving averages. It responds to price changes quite quickly. The signal line is developed from the MACD line, smoothed with another exponential moving average that responds to price changes in a slower way.

Buying and selling signals are given when the MACD line crosses above or below the signal line. The MACD indicator is included in most technical analysis software and is also on the DIF platform. Nowadays, no analyst needs to calculate it by hand as did its creator, Gerard Appel, because computers do this work faster and with greater precision. The MACD indicator is included in most technical analysis software.

Creation of the MACD:

  1. Calculate an exponential 12-day moving average at closing prices.
  2. Calculate an exponential moving average of 26 days of closing prices.
  3. Subtract the 26-day MME from the 12-day MME and draw its difference, as a continuous line. This is the MACD line.
  4. Calculate an exponential 9-day moving average of the MACD hotline and draw the result as a dashed line. This is the signal line.

Additional MACD Applications

Many operators try to optimize MACD by using other moving averages instead of the more commonly used MME for 12-26 and 9 days. Another option is to use MME 5-37 and 7 days. Some traders try to establish MACD links with market cycles. In the case of using cycles, the first MME should be one-quarter of the duration of the dominant cycle and the second MME should be half of the cycle. The third MME is a smoothing instrument, the length of which does not need to be connected to a cycle.

MACD Trading Rules

The intersections or intersections between the MACD and the signal lines identify changes in the market trend. Trading in the direction of crossing these lines means following the flow of the market. This system generates fewer operations and signal investments than an automatic system, based on an MMS.

  • When the MACD indicator passes the signal line, it gives a buy sign. Enter long and place a stop loss below the last minimum.
  • When the MACD indicator passes below the signal line, it gives a sell signal. Enter short and place a stop loss above the last maximum.

This type of oscillator has two uses. It helps to point out divergences. It also helps to identify short- and long-term variations, not only when the short average moves far above or below the larger average, but also by crossing the two.

MACD Histogram

The MACD histogram offers a deeper understanding of the balance of power between buyers and sellers than the original MACD. It shows not only who controls the market, buyers or sellers, but also whether they are strong or weak.

MACD histogram = MACD line – Signal line

The histogram of the MACD indicator shows the difference between the signal line and the MACD line. It graphically represents that difference as a histogram, a series of vertical bars.

When the MACD fast line is above the slow signal line, the MACD histogram is positive and is represented above the zero line. When the MACD fast line is below the slow signal line, the MACD histogram is negative and is represented below the zero line. When the two lines are touched, the MACD histogram is equal to zero.

Each time the distance between MACD and the signal lines increases, the MACD histogram expands. Each time the two lines join, the MACD histogram is shortened. The slope of the MACD histogram identifies the dominant market group. A growing MACD histogram shows that buyers are starting to strengthen. A decreasing MACD histogram shows that vendors are starting to strengthen.

The slope of the MACD histogram is more important than its position above or below the center line. The best-selling signals are when the MACD histogram is above zero but its address is bearish, showing that buyers are starting to sell out. The best buy signals occur when the MACD histogram is below the zero center line and its slope is bullish, showing that vendors are starting to tire.

However, there are systems that consider buying and selling signals at points where the MACD histogram cuts the zero line. In this case, the buy signal is given when the oscillator crosses from the bottom up, while the sell signal is given when the oscillator crosses the reference line from the top down.

Categories
Forex Basic Strategies

Signs You Need Help With Your Forex Strategy

We all need help with things in life, the problem is that it can often be quite hard for us to realise that we need the help, we need someone on the outside to point it out for us. This is no different when it comes to trading and forex, often we think we are doing fine, only to have someone else come along and tell us that we are doing things wrong or to point out the fact that we aren’t actually profitable at the moment.

When we are told we are wrong or we aren’t doing well, it can make us feel pretty down but it is also the first step to improving and the first step towards being a better trader. So if someone tells you or points out something that needs improving, take it on board and put it into action. We are going to be looking at some of the signs that may be there that could be telling you that you need to make changes and that you may need a little help with your forex trading.

You Aren’t Profitable

Sometimes when we are in the driving seat, we don’t actually realise whether we are profitable or not, we are concentrating so much on our actual trading that we are no longer looking at or recording the results that we are taking. We could be months in, with hundreds of trades under our belt, but until someone comes along and looks at those results, we won’t realise that we aren’t actually making any money.

There is an easy solution to this, you need to keep a trading journal. This will allow you to write down pretty much anything that you are doing, and by doing this, you are setting yourself up for success. Simply down to the fact that you will be able to look back at your previous trades and see exactly what you did and the results of that trade. This way you will be able to see exactly what your profits and losses are, and allow you to work out whether what you are doing is effective when it comes to being profitable.

It’s Too Stressful

Many people find trading stressful, that is one of the many natural emotions and reactions that you will get to trading, the problem comes when people find it a little too stressful. Some find it so stressful that they simply need to stop or they just cannot think of anything else, or even function properly afterward. If stress is starting to take over whenever you are trading you most likely need help, but first, you need to look at how you are trading.

Firstly, the money that you are using to trade with, do you need it? Will losing it negatively affect your life when it comes to things like food or rent? If the answer is yes, that is why it is so stressful and that is why you should not be trading with that money, never trade with money that you cannot afford to lose, it will always be a stressful situation. The second thing to look at is whether or not you’re using the correct trade sizes. If you are using trades too big then you will be putting too much of your account in danger, and seeing the trades go into the red can be stressful when the trade sizes are too large. So limit your trade sizes and only trade with money that you can afford to lose, those will instantly reduce your stress levels while trading. There are also a  number of different support groups out there, even just talking to someone, friends, or family works well, can help to reduce your stress levels but getting help from professionals about your stress levels could be an option if it is really getting the most of you.

You Don’t Have Time

Trading can take a lot of time, it also can not take a lot at all, it all depends on you and the strategies that you are using. For many, at the start it can take a long time, there is a lot of learning to do even before you place your first trade, and this can be boring for many who simply want to skip it and start trading, but you need to take the tie to learn. The other thing is that certain strategies take a long time to trade with, there can be a lot of analysis, there can be a lot of trade preparation, and then once you place placed your trades, you need to sit there and monitor them, this is especially true for scalping, where you need to be at the computer during the times of your trading.

If you are someone that does not have a lot of time, then there is not really much point in you trading a strategy that requires you to spend a lot of time in front of your trading terminal. Instead, you should be choosing one that only needs you to place the trade and then the rest will be done for you, these longer-term trading styles are perfect for people who do not have a lot of free time each day to trade. So if you are finding that you don’t quite have enough time, think about switching things up and seeing if you are able to trade more effectively.

Not Knowing What To Do

This is something that is far more common than you may think, yet a lot of people simply do not want to admit it. There will however be situations and times where you simply do not know what it is that you are meant to be doing or how to analyse certain information. Try and get involved in some trading groups and communities. They can really help you out, if you are stuck, ask the question and people will always be happy to help, or even just browsing the community can mean that you find out some information that ultimately helps you to improve and get past your blockage. The moral is to simply ask for help if you are in a situation where you are not sure what to do.

There will of course be other signs that you may need help, if you find yourself in a situation where you are stuck, not understanding something, or cannot see any way to improve, it is important that you talk to people, join an online trading community and talk to people, it is the best way to get around things and people are always willing to help. So if you need help, simply ask for it, it’s the best thing that you can do.

Categories
Forex Basic Strategies

Ways to Completely Revamp Your General Forex Strategy

When you have been trading for a while, you will most likely come across some rough patches, or times where you simply do not think that your strategy is still good enough. Due to this, we will often have to try and change a few things to try and stir things back up and to make a few adjustments. Sometimes, however, you will need to completely revamp your strategy, a complete overhaul to make things more successful. So let’s take a look at some of the things that we can do in order to revamp our strategy and to bring back that spark that it once had before.

Start Over

Sometimes things can become very stale, if you feel your strategy has come to the end of its life then there are still things that you are able to do to try and revamp it. One of those things is to start again from the bottom up. Start with the foundations of your strategy, try and rebuild it based on the current market conditions, this way it will once again suit the conditions of the markets. This may seem a little extreme, starting over completely, but that is one of the ways that you can really tailor your strategy to the current market conditions and one of the ways that you can ensure that it will have the best opportunity to be successful in those market conditions.

Test A New Asset

Sometimes you do not need to actually change or revamp your strategy, instead, you can simply change the asset or currency pair that you are going to be trading. This can put some new life into an already established strategy that you may be using. This once again will enable you to feel as if things are a little fresher even without making any changes. You never know, maybe the strategy will be far more successful on the new strategy than it currently is on the asset that you are trading. So consider this as an option as well as making changes to your current strategy.

Make Subtle Changes

Sometimes you do not need to make large changes, a simple change to one of the parameters or the rules that you use with the strategy could be enough, part of using a strategy is that you need to keep making small adjustments as you go. As the market conditions change, so does your strategy, but the changes do not need to be large. These regular small updates are all things that will ultimately add up to larger changes, so after a year or so of very small changes, the strategy could resemble something that has pretty much nothing in common with the initial strategy that was created. That is the beauty of the small changes, it will create large or completely revamped strategies without needing to spend a long time at once totally changing it up at the same time.

Make Changes to Risk Management

A major part of any strategy is risk management. This is what can potentially make or break a strategy and is the last line of defense for your account balance. Sometimes all you need to do in order to completely revamp your strategy is to change up the risk management that you are using. This may be a change to your risk and reward ratio, a change to the positions of your stop losses, or take profits. Or it could be a change to the size of our trades or even the amount of trades that you place at once. Whatever the change is, be sure to test it first and to ensure that your account always remains safe. Also remember, if your changes to risk management mean that you don’t make as much, you can very easily revert back to the previous plans that you were using.

Be Dynamic

The markets are constantly changing, they are dynamic and will have multiple different trading conditions throughout the year, there will be slow times and there will be times of higher volatility. Due to this, your strategy needs to be dynamic in order to keep up with the ever-changing market conditions. As the markets change, you will need to make adaptations, both big and small changes in order to keep the strategy in line with the markets. This could be changed to your stop-loss levels, your trade sizes, the currencies that you trade, the number of trades being made, and pretty much anything else. Remember that you don’t need to make big changes, but keep track of what the markets are doing, and adapt your strategy and your trading to it.

Look Within

One thing that you also need to do in relation to our strategy, instead of thinking about changing your strategy, there may be something within you that you need to change yourself, or something that you currently do like a bad habit that you need to change. The strategy may actually be working fine, but there is something that you are doing that is causing the issues, or at least reducing the profitability of your trading. So look back at your journal, look back at the trades that you have made in order to ensure that you are following your strategy properly and to help find any bad habits that you may be partaking in, nip those in the bud and your trading will improve without having to make any changes to your trading strategy.

There are many ways that you can change or revamp your strategy, sometimes you only need very small and subtle changes, other times, depending on the market conditions you may need to change the entire thing or even try a new strategy completely. What is important is that you take it one step at a time, and ensure that you are comfortable with the changes, if you are changing something that takes you out of your comfort zone or potentially reduces the profitability of your strategy then there may not be a good reason for making the change. Do not be afraid to make changes though, if one is needed, then it is most likely for the best that you make that change, no after how small it may seem.

Categories
Forex Basics

These Mistakes Will Keep You From Succeeding at Forex

Mistakes happen, we all do them and we make mistakes when we do pretty much anything in life, even things that we have been doing for years and years. So it is obvious that we will also make mistakes when it comes to our trading, that is always going to happen, what is important though is how we earn from them and how we develop after making those mistakes. Some are pretty minor and don’t have a huge effect, some may even benefit us if we are lucky, but some mistakes will hold us back, they will prevent us from being successful and profitable and if we continue to make them, we will consistently lose out and won’t be able to become a successful trader. It is those mistakes that we will be looking at in this article, mistakes that many traders do that can hold their forex trading success back.

Taking Shortcuts

It can be very easy to fall into the trap of taking shortcuts, when we say shortcuts we are referring to the rules and the methods that you use to place trades, your trading plan will have some rules on it, these rules will dictate how and when you place your trades. These can be pretty small shortcuts, like not waiting for additional confirmation, or they can be pretty significant ones like trying to speed up the process by not placing a stop loss with a trade. While they may not seem big, those little things like not placing a stop loss could potentially end up causing some quite considerable losses which will, in turn, put your overall trading results back quite a bit. It is important that you try to avoid these shortcuts, some may work, but when they don’t they can have big effects. Ensure that you stick to your rules and that you do them fully, not doing just half and hoping things are ok, that extra minute that you save is not worth the additional risks involved.

Not Following A Plan

The plan is there for a reason, it is called a plan because it is what you are meant to be following. Yet we see so many people look at their plan and then only follow a few of the things on it. Trading plans should be pretty diverse, they will include the rules for placing trades as well as the risk management plans that are there to help protect our account. Due to this, it is important that you follow them, as soon as you deviate you are placing bad trades and you are reducing the effectiveness and the consistency of your trading. If you have a plan you need to stick to it. The more that you go against it, the more losses and larger effects those losses will have on your account. Stick to your plan at all times.

Increasing Risks

A lot of people don’t seem to stick to their risk management plans, at least not entirely. Your plan will have your risk to reward ratio which will dictate things like your stop loss distance. It will also include things like the trade sizes that you should be using as well as the frequency of your trades. Yet so many go against this, the normal reasons for going against it and increasing things like trade sizes and frequency are a recent loss that they want to win back or overconfidence, things are going very well and so they believe that they can predict the markets. If you ever feel like this, then take a step back, take a break and then come back when these sorts of emotions are not with you. Stick to your risk management plan, you set it up for a reason, it works, so every time you break it you are risking money and potentially your entire account.

Trading Tired

Something that we are all probably guilty of, we love to trade, but sometimes it is better not to and when you are tired, that can be one of those reasons. When we are tired we do not have the same concentration levels, we are far more easily distracted and we are far more likely to make mistakes. Yet we love trading so much or feel that we need to trade that sometimes it doesn’t matter how tired we are, we will still trade. This is where a lot of mistakes will be made, things missed out and potential losses gained. If you’re feeling tired, or that you cannot concentrate fully, then you should try and avoid trading as a whole, including analysing the markets and especially placing any trade.

Being Distracted

Distractions are horrible things when it comes to trading, pretty much anything can be a distraction. When you set up your trading officer room, you should have ensured that a lot of the things that could cause you distractions were removed. Things like a TV, games consoles, things like hats, things that can take your attention away from your trading. Ensure that others know that you are trading and that you do not wish to be disturbed. Distractions can very easily cause you to miss things or to place trades incorrectly, so it is vital that you eliminate as many as you can.

Trading With Emotions

Emotions are wonderful things, they can make us feel amazing but at the same time, they can make us feel pretty rotten. One thing that we want to avoid is trading while our emotions are pretty high. They can cause us to want to do things that go against our trading strategy, things like greed and overconfidence can make us trade large or more often, while things like anxiety and fear can make us not want to trade at all. When we have our emotions high or you can feel something building up then it is important that you take a break, step away, clear your mind and come back when those emotions have died down.

Those are just some of the mistakes that people make when they are trading, some of them may seem pretty small but the consequences that they can have can be pretty big. If you are in any situation, then take a step back and see what you can do to try and rectify things. It’s not the end of the world but what is important is that you are able to recognise them and then do what you can to rectify them.

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Beginners Forex Education Forex Basics

So You’ve Made Your First Forex Trade…Now What?

Congratulations, you have just made your first ever forex trade, that is a fantastic milestone. Unfortunately, your work doesn’t stop there. Regardless of the outcome of that trade, there are a number of things that we need to do afterward in order to ensure that the trade counts as a good and successful trade, and ways that we can build on what we have just done. So let’s take a look at some of the things that you can do next after placing your first trade, these are not in order of importance or order of when you should do them, just things that you should be thinking about after that first trade has been placed.

Write It Down

The first thing that any trader should do after placing their first trade is to write everything about it down on awesome paper in a trading journal if you have one. This will include things like the opening price and time, the closing price and time, how long the trade was open for, the profit or loss of the trade, what analysis you did beforehand, which of your trading rules you followed, and any other relevant information that you can think of. It sounds like a lot, but it will be worth it, this sort of information will then allow you to analyse the trade that you made (our next point) which in turn allows you to ensure that you are making even better trades in the future. This is only possible though if you remember to write things down. It does take a little extra time, time that is definitely worth it, so don’t skip this step just to save yourself a few extra minutes.

Analyse It

You can do this regardless of whether you did our previous point of writing things down, however, it is far easier to do if you have all the relevant information written in front of you. We now need to analyse the trade that we made in order to work out whether it would be classed as a good trade or a bad trade. A good trade is one that followed all of our trading plans and rules, you can then probably guess that a bad trade is simply a trade that did not follow all of our rules, a trade placed outside of our strategy, regardless of the outcome. If we placed a bad trade we need to work out why, what part of the trade went against our pre-planned strategy? Work that out and you will find it far easier to avoid making the same sort of bad trades in the future. The result of the trade in regards to profit or loss is not important at this stage, what is important is that you get used to trading in line with your strategy and that you gain experience with placing trades with your platform and broker.

Remember Your Feelings

When we place our first trade, we will have a number of different emotions flowing through us which is completely natural in this situation. We will feel nervous beforehand, during the trade we may feel a lot of adrenaline, afterward, depending on the result we may feel a high or a low. It is important to remember these feelings, however, the reason why we are remembering them is not so that we can try and recreate them, it is to show us that we need to try and get them out of our trading. The nerves that you get at the start should go with time, but if you allow them to remain it can become increasingly hard to actually place trades, the same with the highs and lows, they can become addicting or even bring on other emotions that can affect our trading like greed or overconfidence. So remember those feelings, if you then, later on, feel them becoming quite strong, that is a good time to take a break and clear your mind.

Change Things

If we did our analysis properly, we will most likely have a few things to think about, did you follow your strategy? Did you place a good trade or a bad trade? These are things to think about. If things were not entirely perfect which they probably weren’t, then we can start to think about things that we need to change. When starting out there will most likely be a lot of different things that we need to change on our first, second, third, and more trades. They may be very few things, but each change that we make is an improvement that will ultimately improve our overall trading in the long run. Remember, these changes do not need to be big, any changes are also helpful, no matter how small they are.

Place Another

So we placed our first trade, after looking at that trade, analysing it, working out what we need to change, we can then think about placing our second trade. We need to take into account anything that we previously looked at, so if we needed to make a change, this is where we can implement it, of course, if it is a huge change, then it will be good to test it on a demo account, but for very small changes it will be ok in our live account. It should be slightly easier and quicker to place this second trade as we have done one before and the majority will be exactly the same. Place the trade and then do exactly the same again, write down what you do, the same information as before, so you can then analyse the second trade to ensure you are still in line and that any changes that were made are working well. Then do the same for the third, fourth, and any other subsequent trades that you make.

Your sift trade is a huge milestone, it is the start of your trading career, it can be daunting, it can be exciting and for many, it won’t go the way that you want but that is all part of trading. Analyse it, change it and keep working and writing down everything that you do. With each and every trade you will see small improvements until you get to your 100th where you will be a much better trader than you were for your first trade.

 

Categories
Forex Basic Strategies

How To Construct and Write Up Forex Trading Plans

A good winning Forex trading plan should become the start for any path to becoming a consistently profitable trader. Unfortunately, some traders don’t write one until they’ve shredded some trading accounts. Even the task of writing a trading plan often falls into the category of, “I will do it when I have more time!”

So why don’t a lot of merchants spend some time making one if we’re talking about something so important? The answer is very simple: we don’t like the rules. And this doesn’t just apply to traders. We use the term “us” to refer to the entire human race.

When entering forex, we find an environment without many rules. Except for the ones our broker can put on, we’re free to do whatever we want. This is a somewhat frightening proposition for someone who’s been bound by rules all his life. We attribute to this fact the phenomenon that so many traders fail; they cannot handle the fact that they have no rules to follow. Or rather, they do not set their own rules.

In this article, we intend to check what a trading plan is all about, why it is so important and some points we think you should consider including in your own trading plan.

What Is A Forex Trading Plan?

A trading plan is like the original plan of everything you do as a trader, grouped as concisely as possible, but also descriptively. Your negotiation plan should consist of how and when you operate, as well as what you do before and after each operation.

Anyway, writing your trading plan isn’t the hard part. The hard part is to do it in as much detail as possible while keeping it as concise as possible, preferably just one page. After all, an 8-page trading plan that takes 15 minutes to read is not likely to be consulted often, which you should be doing.

Finally, your plan needs to be reviewed as your trading skills improve. Do not mistakenly think that your business plan is immovable and that just have to make it work.

Why Is A Trading Plan Important? 

Simply put, a forex trading plan helps you stay disciplined. Commerce is a business and has to be treated as such. Like a business has a standardized operating procedure to keep things running properly, you must have a trading plan to keep yourself disciplined. As mentioned above, the forex market is a boundless environment and rules, so you need your trading plan to serve as a rule book to help you stay out of trouble.

Building Your Forex Trading Plan

Now is the time to work to put the pieces together. Below we have outlined what we believe are the most important topics to include in your trading plan. This is not a complete list, so you are free to add topics that you think should be included in your trading plan.

Every winning trading plan begins with a well-defined strategy or set of strategies. For us, these strategies could be the indecision candle, reversion pinbar, internal bar breaks, power candle, etc. It is important to define each strategy you will use and also to define the market conditions necessary to validate a setup. Does the market have to be biased or can it be of rank? Should the pinbar occur at a support and resistance level or will you also consider operating continuation pinbars?

Defining Time Frames

This theme is very simple, but it is also crucially important. You have to define the time frames in which you will operate. The omission of this simple rule has caused a lot of headaches for many traders. For example, we know a trader who when he first started in this world of forex, was constantly changed from the time frame. One week he used H1, then he got bored and moved on to M5 the next week.

Not only that, but he was in the habit of entering the market by looking at the H1 graph and then switching to H4, D1, M15, and even M5, just to see if things looked “right”. This person had no idea what he was looking for but was determined to make sure that every time frame looked favorable.

Choose only 1 or 2 time frames with which you feel more comfortable and stick to them. Look for setups in these time frames, operate in these time frames, and exit the operations in these time frames. This is the only way to break with “the dance of time frames,” which I think we’ve all experienced before.

Defining Your Watch List

As part of your trading plan, you will want to define the currency pairs you will operate. As with your overall trading plan, your watch list will change over time. Normally we recommend starting with 10 pairs of coins to observe at any time. This will give you several setups every week even in the highest time frames. As time goes on your business skills will tend to improve and your confidence increases, you can extend the list to include other pairs and even some commodities.

Mental Preparation

No, you should not meditate. Mental preparation is undoubtedly the most neglected topic in a trading plan. Maybe it’s because traders are too busy defining their strategy. Or perhaps simply because people don’t like to talk about their feelings. Whatever the case, this point is a must!

How do you feel today? Did you have a good night’s rest? Do you feel energetic, tired, or something in between? These are virtually all the questions that need to be asked as part of your business plan. We’ve all had those mornings. Whether we’ve been up late with friends, the stress of life that won’t let you sleep, or maybe you got up on your left foot. These things happen to the best too and will continue to happen. It’s your job to assess the situation and find out if you’re mentally prepared to face the markets. If not, maybe it’s best to sit back and do nothing until tomorrow.

The financial markets will always be there and believe us when we tell you that it will be much better to wait to operate until you are mentally prepared than to lose money for a mistake you would not otherwise have made. Just remember, being “flat” (not having open positions) is one position and the safest you can have.

Lay Down Your Risk

As some will know, we do not recommend setting the risk in percentage terms. A much more precise approach is to define your risk level as a monetary value. But on the other hand, setting a percentage also gives some value, so we think it advisable to use both methods combined.

Here we can give an example of how you could define your risk within your trading plan. First, you must determine what your risk threshold is in terms of percentage. We recommend something between 1% and 5%. Let’s assume that you want to risk 2% per operation. The next step would be to define your risk threshold in terms of monetary value. Suppose you have a $10,000 account and are comfortable with risking 2%. Using the percentage rule only, your risk will be $200 on any transaction. But the question is, what kind of risky dollars do you start feeling a little anxious about?

Put another way, how much capital are you willing to lose an operation? The reason you have to ask yourself this is that it will not always fit perfectly with the percentage you have defined above. Let’s say your monetary threshold is $100. Any value above that and your emotions will start to bring out the worst in you. But in the $100 example is half of what your 2% rule tells you that you should risk…

For this reason, it is important to define risk in both terms: percentage and monetary value, and that you risk the least between them. Clearly, these numbers will change as your trading account grows, just be sure to redefine both whenever necessary.

Define Your Multiple of R

Your multiple of R is simply your profit-risk ratio expressed in a single number. For example, if you risk $50 on an operation and your potential gain is $100 (based on your goal), then your risk-benefit ratio is 1:2. In other words, the risk is half of the potential benefit. In terms of multiple of R, this would be a “2R”.

Another example would be to risk $70 to get a potential of $170. By dividing 170 between 70 we get a 2.4R. It is important to define a minimum ratio as part of your trading plan. We recommend 2R, but of course, we each apply the value that best suits you. The higher the value R is the better.

Defining Entry Rules

How are you going to enter into the trading strategies you previously defined in your plan? Let’s take an example, if any of your strategies are pinbar, what kind of input method will you use? Will you enter a “nose” break of the pinbar or perhaps prefer to enter in the middle of it?

If you are open to both methodologies, you should also define when to use each of them. What market conditions justify using the method of entering the middle of the pinbar? What market conditions must be present to justify entering a pinbar nose break?

Defining Output Rules

This is one of the most misunderstood rules when we talk about drawing up a trading plan. Why? Because too many people are so obsessed with developing a setup to operate that they completely forget to look for outlets before entering the market. Although most traders are excellent at finding a possible way out, everyone likes to see how much money they have a chance of making on each operation. But not defining an exit point will prevent you from defining your R-value based on your potential loss.

In this heading of your business plan, you will want to define where the stop loss will be located as well as how to define your objectives. Speaking of objectives, you’ll also want to define in detail how you plan to get out of a winning operation. Will you go out of position completely to the first target achieved, or will you close only half of the position and keep the other half in play? These are questions that need an answer.

Risk Management

Setting rules to manage your risk is an essential part of a good trading plan. Even though you have already established where you will place your initial stop, you will also want to define how you plan to modify it as the operation develops, if you wish to do so. For example, you could use the highs and lows of the previous days to move your stops to safe places and insure profits.

The issue of risk management is what makes a trader. As we said before, it’s not your percentage of winning operations that makes you consistently profitable, but the amount of money you make with a favorable operation vs. the amount you lose with an unfavorable operation averaged over a long series of operations. And the only way to put the scales in your favor is with a solid plan for your risk management as well as a disciplined approach to implementing your plan.

What you do after each operation is as important as the way you mentally prepare before the operation. One of the most important rules is how long you will take away from your trading place before entering the next transaction. This is very important! After losing an operation, you may be tempted to take revenge and take back what you’ve lost. This is usually called revenge trade and is one of the reasons why so many traders fail.

The urge to jump immediately to the market after a winning operation is also very strong. This impulse is caused by 2 thoughts:

You feel invincible. That feeling that everything is going as you expect, so why not take another operation and earn even more money?

Building trust is one thing, but not being able to recognize overconfidence in key situations is called arrogance. And this one has no place in the forex market.

You feel like you have extra money to spend. The profits made in the last operation give a feeling of “I found money”, then no problem if I return some to the market. We call this “casino mentality”. It’s the same feeling that casino players get after winning $500. Instead of leaving with that money won, they immediately bet the $500 just to lose everything and a little more. You must use this part of your operations plan to redefine how to mentally prepare for the next operation.

Summary

The hardest part of writing your own forex trading plan is not defining your rules. The most difficult part is to include enough details to make it effective and yet be concise enough for you to use in practice. Remember that the idea behind putting together a trading plan is so you can go over it daily. This means that it must occupy 1 page (or 2 at most) and must be somewhere that is visible to you. It is our wish that this article has given you some practical tips on how to write a forex trading plan.

Categories
Forex Psychology

Top 10 Forex Trading Psychological Mistakes

It is said that the personal psychological challenge constitutes 90% of the struggle to achieve consistent success as a forex trader. Can it be true? Yes and no. Many great traders who have written about their experiences have recognized how their own inner psychological struggles have caused them heavy losses, even when they “knew” they were doing it wrong. There can be no doubt that the psychological factors are of great importance in the game of Forex or when speculating in any market.

Mastering your negotiating psychology isn’t going to offer you money by itself but, if you’re not aware of the tricks your own head is trying to reproduce, you are very likely to be losing even if you are a good trader and have been successful in your trading decisions. There are hundreds of ways a trader can sabotage himself. There is a “physical” aspect to trading.

We want you to find it useful in your journey as a trader to be aware of the various psychological traps that traders usually fall into. Sometimes you have to experience something for yourself to learn from it: nothing teaches us better than direct experience. We want some of these points to give you a new understanding of the trading errors you have already made or warn you beforehand of mistakes you have not yet made. Make the effort not to blame yourself when you make a mistake while operating: get your “revenge” by learning the lesson and not by making the same mistake.

#1 – Not Believing In Your Methods

It is surprising how many people operate in the markets without being convinced that they can make money or at least make sure that they have a good chance to do so. Even if you think you believe in what you’re doing, are you sure you don’t have big doubts under that surface? The answer to this problem is to prove its methodology. For example, if you follow trends, take time to review much historical data. Does it show profitable results most of the time? It’s based on a solid concept, like a reversion to mean or impulse? If the answer to all these questions is yes, you should be sure of what you are doing and not forget that you believe in it.

#2 – Not Having a Plan and Sticking To It

This sounds very obvious. It’s not just about having a plan, it’s about having several plans and leaving some flexibility. For example, if you are doing day trading, you must have a method to decide in each session which currency pair or pairs to trade. But, if the pair that choose goes nowhere, while another pair shoots up, you may want to reconsider your decision rather than just “stick with the plan”, for example, allowing you the option to modify your opinion hourly. It is a “plan”, but a plan may also include some structured flexibility.

#3 – Not Knowing the Difference Between Planning and Living

It’s pretty easy to make a plan that works on paper, but living that plan in real-time can be something completely different. A good example is to make a plan to do hundreds of trades in a year or so and expect your account to suffer a 20% reduction as it suffers a streak of 20 consecutive trades with losses. You can make the review in a day or two and decide if such losses are acceptable. You will probably feel very different when you spend weeks or even months losing real money over and over while your balance shrinks. There is no optimal answer to this dilemma, just keep in mind that spending months of time in an hour or so is not necessarily a good psychological practice for bad negotiating times.

#4 – Being Afraid Of Placing A Position

These are the opposite sides of the same problem. The best way to overcome this is to tell yourself every day that you are willing to place several positions in one day or none at all, and that what you do will depend entirely on the market situation rather than the condition of your wallet or your mood. There will be days without action and days with lots of action. You have to adapt to the circumstances.

#5 – Making “Agreements” with the Market

Tell yourself that, if the price goes up another 10 pips or if it doesn’t go up in the next hour, you will close the position. This is simply your mind subjected to your anxiety. Ignore it, stand firm, and just step out of positions according to your plan.

#6 – Being Too Anxious To Take Profit

You see a benefit on the table and think how nice it would be to take it and stop operating that day, thus missing what could be a more profitable day. This is laziness and self-indulgence and must be controlled. The only reason to take profit must be that you have a real reason to believe that you will probably not go much further in the desired direction. Let the market point it out, not anticipate it.

#7 – Protecting Yourself From Losses

This is really the same as an appetite for profit. You may need to rethink your risk management strategy.

#8 – Letting Positions With Losses Run

There is a simple way to avoid this: always use a strict stop-loss and do not constantly expand it.

#9 – Not Taking Responsibility for Your Trading

It’s very easy to make excuses. If I hadn’t missed the bus/been distracted/in a bad mood then I would have handled the position better and made money instead of losing it. It’s your duty to make sure that that you do not miss the bus or get distracted or be in a bad mood. Once you take responsibility for your trading activity, your mood can improve as you see that there’s a way to make things better. It’s a marathon, not a sprint.

#10 – Endless Search of the “Holy Grail”

You test and design a strategy that offers an average of 20% profit per year. But wait! Try something else to earn even more, say 25%. Is there anything better out there? Maybe, but this process of searching and testing can take a long time. Consider this: If you spend 6 months testing instead of operating in a committed way to find a way to earn 25% instead of 20%, you will simply lose 10% and it will take you another year to make up for it. Keep searching by all means, but don’t let that affect your trading. Even if you have a pretty solid methodology, it doesn’t have to be perfect!

Categories
Forex Technical Analysis

Monte Carlo Simulation Testing in Forex Trading

As a trader, when you need to calculate the risk or consistency of your trading system you need to test your trading systems. The Monte Carlo test is a good tool for this. The Monte Carlo method is based on a simulation where all possibilities are evaluated by a random number generation and all possible scenarios are simulated.

What we want is to generate so many random numbers as possible, in order to simulate as many of our trading scenarios as possible. It is something like saying what would happen if some variables like spread, input, and output or the price itself are altered. You will see how each option evolves over time in our trading system, whether it is viable in the long and short term, and what other variables may influence its course.

In this article, I will show you how this test can help you in your trading, some practical examples, and we will also know how to use it in a practical way.

How Can Monte Carlo Simulation Be Used?

You probably don’t know what this method is used for. The Monte-Carlo simulation is about the economy, both in companies and in investment, the latter being where it is mostly seen in action. Some situations where this type of simulation is made in investment are to create, value, and analyze investment portfolios. It also serves to value complex financial products, such as financial options or risk management models.

Since the return on investment is unpredictable, this type of method is used to assess different types of scenarios. A simple example is found in trading. As you know, movements in prices cannot be predicted. They can be approximated, but it is impossible to do so accurately. This is where the Monte Carlo simulation comes into play, where you try to mimic the behavior of a trading system or a set of them to analyze how these might evolve. Once the simulation is done, a very large number of possible scenarios are extracted.

Origin of the Name

Monte Carlo cites the name of a famous casino located in the Monaco Match. It is known to be the “gambling capital” as roulette is a simple random number generator. The system was first devised in 1946 when mathematician Stanislaw Ulam thought of an efficient method to improve his solo game.

It was on that occasion that he realized that would be easier to approximate the overall result of the solo match by making multiple tests with the cards and counting the proportions of the results than to calculate one by one all the combinations possibilities. He presented this idea to another mathematician, John Von Neumann, in its most rudimentary form. He was so impressed with the system that he put his efforts into refining the formula.

The technological advances, together with the computer and the theories of Alan Turing, allowed the advance of the investigation of this particular financial simulation to be facilitated. A letter from Neumann to the lab in Los Alamos was instrumental in spreading the formula to everyone. The use of the Monte Carlo model as a research tool comes from the work carried out in the development of the atomic bomb during the Second World War at the Los Alamos National Laboratory in the United States. 

This work involved the simulation of probabilistic hydrodynamic problems concerning neutron diffusion in the fission material. This diffusion has an eminently random behavior. Today, it is a fundamental part of raytracing algorithms for the generation of 3D images. In principle, it was idealized by Neumann to evaluate multiple integrals. Today, it is used in the labour market for all kinds of statistics, and very curiously, for high-risk administrative decisions, where it would be difficult to verify the validity of a variant.

Understanding Monte Carlo

The most essential data to keep in mind when doing your calculation is that you have to generate a good amount of random numbers. How can you generate random numbers? While at the Monte Carlo casino, this is used with a roulette wheel, this could take you longer than you have. The right thing for you is to make use of Software.

If we want to generate 10,000 random numbers, to give you an example, imagine how much time we would need to calculate each probability. Computer programs that generate these numbers are used. They are not considered purely random numbers, as they are created by the program with a formula. However, they are very similar to the random variables of reality. They are called pseudo-random numbers. Having said all this, it only remains to see a correct application of the method.

A practical example:

Computer-aided design (CAD) programs can quickly determine the volume of very complex models. Such software, in general, is not capable of determining volume (for example, for a prism, base area multiplied by height). So one of the things we’ll be able to do is divide the model into a set of small sub-models with which the volume can be determined. However, this consumes many resources for the calculation of the volume of each of the elements.

For this, they use Monte-Carlo simulations, which are more robust and efficient. The software knows the analytic expression of the model geometry (position of nodes, edges, and surfaces) and can approximate a point that is inside the model or outside at a much lower cost.

First, the software places the model within a known volume (for example, within a 1 m3 volume cube). It then generates a random point inside the known volume and records whether the point “has fallen” inside or outside the model. This process is repeated several times (thousands or millions), getting a very large record of how many points have been left inside and how many outside.

The probability of it falling in is proportional to the volume of the model, so the proportion of points that have fallen in, with respect to the total of points generated, is the same proportion of volume that the model occupies within the cube of 1 m3. If 50% of the points have fallen within, the model occupies 50% of the total volume, i.e., 0.5 m3. Obviously, the more points the software generates, the smaller the volume estimation error will be.

Excel Spreadsheet

One of the many ways to perform a Monte Carlo simulation is to make a random order of operations. For this, we can perform a simple simulation using a spreadsheet. First, start with the data from the next sample. They are trading operations, so you can make a list of the results of the backtest operations.

Now, assign the results to different ranges. Create result groups and attribute each result to your corresponding group. In LibreOffice, it can be done with:

Functions Category Frequency Matrix.

Continuing with the example, there is only one operation with a loss greater than -600, 3 operations with results between -300 and -200, and so on, until distributing the entire sample.

Calculate the relative frequency or probability with which each range is given (frequency is the equivalent of the total of operations). It also calculates the accumulated frequencies, then you can get the random number intervals associated with each operation.

So, the next thing to do is change the order of the random operations, we seek to generate random sequences of operations. How do you do this? Use the SEARCH function, where we select the array between groups and intervals as the RANDOM search criteria. (Between 0.9999). That’s what a Monte Carlo simulation would look like on a spreadsheet.

Each random number shall be linked to a range with a probability less than or equal to the random number obtained. Thus, if, for example, the generated number is 0.35, this will correspond to the range of 100. From the operating sequences, you can draw the different profit curves. By randomizing the order of operations, the capital curves yield completely different results. Based on the curves, you can calculate the trading system’s hope, scatter results, the maximum drawdown level you can expect, and any other ratio you need.

Applying Monte Carlo to Your Trading

The Monte Carlo test is ideal for you to stress your trading systems and see how they behave in different scenarios. Remember that every day the market changes. As we’re not entirely sure what’s going to happen tomorrow, we change the variables that affect our trading such as volatility, spread, prices. and see how our trading strategies react.

Those that despite varying the whole scenario still yield good results are those that will surely remain profitable. If on the contrary, a strategy with each simulation varies considerably the best thing is to discard it since in practice it can result in losses with any variation in market circumstances.

Use With Darwins

It is possible to either use the method to choose between different traders. We already know that thanks to the formula explained, it is possible to make random operations to generate new scenarios equally likely in each of them.

With the analysis that concerns the article, we will be able to know if a strategy or a darwin works and is robust and in what degree of reliability. To calculate the different curves, we will first need a sequence of results generated by a certain darwin, that is, we will need that the darwin has performed as many operations as possible.

The more I’ve done and the longer I’ve been operating, the better. To get this data, access the risk profile of the darwin you want to analyze, there we will have a histogram of all its operations. Once you have the table, you will have to generate a series of random numbers between 0 and 100 (or between 0 and 1, depending on how you have it set up), and depending on the one that comes out, we will assign a result to each operation. So, if our spreadsheet makes the random number 55, the result of that operation will be +2%.

How do you know this? Because the cumulative frequency of the +2% result is 68.90% and the cumulative frequency of -2% is 30.53, so any random number that comes out between 30.53 and 68.9 will have a result of +2%. You generate this for each operation on each curve, so you can choose the number of operations and the number of curves you intend to simulate.

A darwin with a positive mean means that, in the long run, he has a good chance of winning. Also, the standard deviation gives us an idea of the variability of the possible results of this darwin, the smaller it is, the better. These parameters depend on the number of curves you are going to simulate (the number of curves we have taken as an example is not enough, we have to simulate more, usually 1000 capital curves are simulated) and the number of operations we want to simulate. To analyze data from different darwins, you can do so through the Darwinex website.

Analysis of Monte Carlo

Monte Carlo analysis is one of the largest methods of analysis. Currently, he is one of the major players in high-risk stock calculations. Implementing this model in your trading means having more objective knowledge than you do. Although it seems like a method that throws a coin into the air, the formula used leaves little margin for error and will increase the reality of any fact you make.

Multinational companies, such as Google, have shared their successes in using the Monte Carlo analytical method. They bet large amounts of money on buying social networks and other digital services and are now at the top of the internet world. This type of analysis avoids possible failures when performing operations. In the same way, thanks to it, you can have more robust and consistent trading strategies.

Categories
Forex Basics

A Summary of Trading For A Living by Dr. Alexander Elder

Trading For A Living is an excellent read for those who wish to learn about the many aspects of the trading world. The book was written by Dr. Alexander Elder and published initially in 1993, with a new version in 2014 (translated into Spanish in 2017). What follows is a summary of this work for those who are interested in learning more about trading. 

In its introductory section, Trading For A Living indicates that anyone can make a living by trading without relying on anyone else. Without a doubt, some very emotional lines that fill many with confidence, including numerous traders today. This book tells us that to succeed in trading, we must put emotions aside and we must also be disciplined, consistent, and very patient.

The author indicates that trading is based on some fundamental aspects: psychology, market analysis, trading system, and money management. This last point is key. If you want to get as successful as possible, it is important that we manage our money optimally, appreciating and taking care of capital at all times. We’ll give you a summary of the book Living Trading in Two Parts.

The first part of this book focuses on individual psychology and shows us that the main target of a good trader is not, as most of the world thinks, make money in the first place, but to make an efficient trade. Greed is a destructive weapon and unfortunately, many traders want to be millionaires overnight. Without measuring the consequences that this entails. A trader’s success is to be very realistic, knowing what his qualities or skills are as well as his limitations.

In addition, you should be aware of everything that happens in the market and make the best decisions when they are needed. With regard to this market analysis, the book states that it must be carried out with great effort and dedication, reacting in the best way and being very realistic at all times.

In addition, the control of emotions and money are terms on which the author makes a lot of emphases, being the key to achieve success in trading. It also denies that trading is a simple game. You have to take it very seriously!

After reading the book, the author talks about an important topic: the study of individual and mass psychology. Here it indicates the impulsiveness and eagerness of the losing trader to play or participate. Which means losing a lot of money and never letting the world know. That is why a person who invests impulsively, without the control of emotions and economic resources, will never have the success of a smart trader.

In this book, Elder indicates some tips (7 specifics), which can help you live trading. We summarize them below:

  1. Mind that you will start trading to stay for many years there.
  2. You should read a lot and listen to the experts on this topic, but keep your own criteria.
  3. Leave greed behind and your emotions. Everything in time, opportunities in the market will always be at your disposal.
  4. Create the best strategies to analyze the market.
  5. Come up with an appropriate money management plan. You need to survive long-term, grow constantly, and make the best profits.
  6. Be aware that in a trading system, you will be the weakest link.
  7. If you want to be a winning trader and succeed in the trading world, you must think and act differently from the losers.

Without a doubt, Trading For A Living is one of the best trading books in history, so we recommend reading it in detail if you want to succeed as a trader.

Categories
Forex Basics

The Two Types of Financial Independence (Likeable and Unlikable)

There is a very wide concept of Financial Independence that I don’t like, and it would be more or less this: An investor reads Kiyosaki and his “Rich Father, Poor Father”, and likes the concepts of “rat race”, “passive income vs income from work”, “financial independence”, etc. From there, the investor draws the conclusion that to be happy, he has to earn enough money to stop working and live off income at 50.

While the concepts of Kiyosaki do not displease me at all, the conclusion drawn by the investor seems terrible to me. At the income level, wanting to maximize them will lead you to look for the job that allows you to earn more money, not the one you like to do. And probably, to give him a lot of hours, and sacrifice any personal issues for the sake of thriving on the job. At the expense level, scissors for everything; euro I earn, euro saving. Getting out is expensive, holidays are expensive, maybe even children are expensive…

If he’s lucky, the investor will have a shitty life until he’s 50 (pity his best years), and then he’ll be able to live without work… which will seem very desirable after many years of investing a very large amount of hours in a job he didn’t like; but for that, you need to have saved a lot of money and the investments have gone well, and maybe the investor does not have enough at 50 and has to continue until 60…

And then what? The investor can live without work… what a thing. That’s not as good as it sounds, I’ve seen several cases of people starting startups and selling them for millions, and these people don’t stay out of work after that, as much as they could spare; a few months off, yes, but then they look for some activity again, because it’s the way to feel fulfilled, and it’s so much better than just living on rent. And that’s the financial independence I don’t like. But unfortunately, there are many investors out there… This concept of financial independence is widespread.

Going back to the basics, Kiyosaki-san, what he says is that the lack of savings closes your options and makes you miss out on opportunities for improvement, and that’s where the key point for me is. The right aspiration is not to work, but not to have to stagnate in a bad job (it can be bad because of the salary, or for any other reason that makes you not like it). And to achieve this, you need some savings (but not far enough to be able to live without working), and something to move us in the right direction.

For example, suppose the investor is working as a private employee in a banking office, charging little and displeasing because he has to place bad products on customers. Instead of striving to become a director and collect many bonus targets, the investor starts to think about what he would like to do, and comes to the conclusion that he might like to be a photographer. So he talks to people who are working as photographers (in the press, at weddings, etc.) and he doesn’t see clearly that he can make enough money making the kind of photographs he would like, and he ends up dismissing (or at least parking) the photographer at a professional level; What else would you like to do? Maybe be a cook and have your own restaurant… Repeat the process, talking to restaurant owners cooks, and although not all is pink (restaurant schedules, paperwork for owning the business), he does see it as viable to make enough money doing the kind of cooking he would like, so he decides to try.

But as Kiyosaki says, to have options you need money; to open a restaurant is expensive, and to be able to pass without the payroll of the bank also, so the investor mounts a financial plan:

At the level of income, instead of killing oneself in the bank to earn more, what he tries is to get some job on weekends in restaurants; preferably as a cook, but also as a waiter, because if he is going to be the owner of the business it is convenient to have a global vision. In addition, he always finds a little time to talk to the business owner and tells them that he also wants to set up a restaurant in five years, so they can give him advice and tell him about their experience. What they tell you confirms that it is something you want to do, and also gives you some ideas (it seems that employee management is more difficult than it seems, and you start reading things on the internet about the subject). And in the meantime, the extra income he needed is falling; 5,000 euros a year.

At the expense level, the investor discovers that with a little consideration it is easy to reduce the electricity bill by 10 euros (25 in the winter months), another 10 euros per month on the telephone bill, another 30 euros a month canceling some subscriptions to things that didn’t really bring anything to him, puts the scissors in the car (in his case, taking the subway to go to the center, avoiding the expense in parking) and postpones to the next year the renewal of the mobile; But it keeps the holidays intact, the food, the clothes, the Netflix… the things he really enjoys. And in leisure, spending is maintained, but now spending less on cinema and more on restaurants, for seeing the market. In total he has saved 1500 euros a year, which is not too much… but it helps, and he has not had to lose quality of life to get it.

A year and a half later, the investor already has experience as a cook, knows the business, and has very good contacts in the sector. And one of them has had a casualty, and who first thinks to cover it is the investor who quickly accepts; now earns the same as he earned in the bank, but is in a job that he finally likes, which is a very important improvement, and he’s still on the road to having his own restaurant…

History may have many paths from here, but the good news is that it will almost certainly end well:

You can progress in this restaurant, or you can jump to one where they pay a lot or one where the investor learns a lot from the hand of a chef he admires.

You may discover the niche of “restaurant photographer”, and end up recovering your original vocation.

He may be comfortable as a cook in someone else’s restaurant and decide to stay (hey, dreams change!), or he may end up buying a restaurant in 3-5-10 years, or he may start a new one.

“People assume that if you try to get the maximum money, you will get the maximum money; however, the reality is that if you do what you like, you will probably do better than if you do things that you only do for money, And on not a few occasions you will end up standing out and maybe you will earn more money than if you focus only on money!”

Maybe your business is going well, maybe it’s going badly. If it goes wrong and you had a lot of debt to ride it, you will have problems (it is the only bad way). If he does badly but didn’t get into too much debt, he’ll go back to being a cook (which is much better for him than the bank), and maybe in the future, he’ll try again…

As you can see, in this new history of the investor there appear many concepts of financial independence, but not the desire to live off income without working. Oddly enough… if the investor’s restaurant is doing well, he still has enough money to live without working.

Categories
Forex Basics

The Beginner Trader’s ABC’s of Forex Trading

Is it really possible to make money in the financial markets? It absolutely is. With that being said, you must know what steps to take to be successful. The beginner’s guide that we provide here will help you to start earning straight away. 

Learning, Learning, and More Learning

Not having the right education is the main reason why we will never be the CEO of JP Morgan Stanley tomorrow. To obtain the desired position, we study at school, we study at university, we go on a refresher course, etc. If we successfully overcome all this, we will have the opportunity to occupy the desired position. Are there many people in high-ranking and highly paid positions who have no education? They are not there at all. Therefore, to achieve something, we must study.

It is the same with currency trading. If your desire is to be a trader, you must first learn how to do it. A consistent and successful trader in addition to what he once learned, is constantly improving and learning new methods and ways to increase his income. Therefore, if you want to have the opportunity to earn money on Forex, start by studying the educational materials your broker will provide you with kindness. Trade within a demo account before you start trading in a real one. And don’t save money on your education.

Test, Test, Test

Did you lose your first deposit? Do you think trading is not your thing? That’s not so. Anyone with an average IQ has enough talent to trade in Forex. However, not everyone will have enough determination. As I have already reported, the first difficulties always discourage us, and we tend to be quite reluctant to continue. Here the situation is similar, the first losses are the first difficulties. We should focus and overcome the problems.

It is essential and necessary to know very well the causes of the problems and then start again after they have been eliminated. We must know that this is the only way to succeed in trading. Do you think the advanced traders we’ve seen before have never had a loss? They have in fact, and now too. But they can overcome the losses and make sure the loss doesn’t affect the end result. Remember, no matter how the team played, the final score only matters.

Update Your Trading Strategy

As you learn and read more and more trading methods, your own methods will lose relevance. Don’t stay in one place. If you found a good approach to trading, met a new pattern, read about a new indicator, don’t be afraid to try. Modify your current trading strategy, try the new pattern. It may be something you’ve been looking for! Then, never stop there, always go further. The market changes constantly, therefore, you should be changing.

Sharing Your Experiences

The longer you trade, the more hands-on experience you get. And the hands-on experience is the most valuable trading experience. You can read a lot of trading books, but your knowledge will not give you any results if you have never traded in a real account. The community of traders is huge, and there will always be people whose experience is greater or less than yours. In other words, some traders can teach you something, and some traders can learn from you. Always share your experience with traders of your level, this can bring a lot of benefits to your own result, plus you can expand your network of contacts. These are basically the main points you should start with if you have decided to change your life and move towards success.

Common Beginner’s Mistakes

Well, we’ve defined what you must do to succeed in trading. But, as in other businesses, there are many difficulties in currency trading. Therefore, I would like to warn you about the typical mistakes that beginner traders make, to avoid them.

  1. I want to earn quickly. 

We all want to succeed as soon as possible. And often this desire plays a bad joke on us. When we want to look for big profits, we usually start not respecting the rules of our system, not complying with our business plan, and this leads to an inevitable loss of money. If your desire is to succeed, convince yourself that what you need is to achieve success little by little, it is a path that you have to travel step by step. There are many times when success can come quickly. But as experience shows, people are usually not prepared for this and cannot develop this success).

  1. Misunderstanding of leverage principles.

Leverage is a unique mechanism that brokers provide to their customers, and if you can use this mechanism correctly, it will become an ally for you. If you use it incorrectly, it will become the cause of your losses. Before you start using leverage in your trading, make sure you understand how it works, know the principle of its use, and how it will affect your performance. Simply put, don’t employ high leverage, for stable earnings, 1:100 is enough. Let’s take an example, the trader, whom we have studied in detail work before, does not use leverage above 1:30.

  1. Lack of money management.

Overall, it’s a pretty important issue. To put it briefly, money management is a complex of measures you take to better manage your funds. The basic points of any money management are the correct management of your funds, the calculation of risk parameters, the management of leverage, the recording of statistics of executed operations, the operation with a small part of its capital, and other points. Money management is basically mathematical at the level of your wallet. He always knows how much money his wallet has, how much he’s going to buy, and how much money he’ll have left after he buys it. The same goes for your Forex account. You must know the amount you want to win if you succeed and how much you will lose if you fail. The result obtained by your operation should not surprise you.

  1. Operate for a long time.

This is the time you spend trading. If your time is distributed correctly and effectively, you are always in a good mood and for this reason, nothing, in terms of psychology, prevents you from thinking correctly and making the right trading decisions. The result of such work will almost always be positive. If you are operating day and night, your brain gets tired and cannot respond adequately to current events. This results in irritation, exhaustion, inability to think rationally and make decisions, which negatively affects your trading performance. Define the appropriate period to work and do not work too much.

How to Maximize Profits

Among the benefits of being able to trade on their own, the markets offer you many opportunities to earn extra money in trading. If you’re not too tired, let’s move on!

  1. Transaction Copy System

Remember when we were studying the case of the successful trader, what I said is that this trader did his trade publicly. This is done to receive additional income from people who copy their operations. Remember, the reward? Well, the transaction copy system allows inexperienced people to make money. Simply select the trader, whose trading performance you like and copy your trades. In return, you will share a fixed share of your earnings with this trader. I think this is little compared to the fact that they will do all the work for you and make money for you. In this system you can earn as a trader, start trading, and in addition to your own profits in your account, you will receive a commission from the investors who copy it. If you want to earn money as an investor, simply copy successful trades and make a profit without any effort. You decide!

  1. The Affiliate Programme

Brokers are always very interested in being able to develop their business more and thus be able to attract new customers. They make profits by receiving commissions for the transactions made by their clients. They themselves do not always manage to attract a sufficient number of new customers. That’s why Forex brokers often turn to the help of existing customers, offering them the opportunity to make money by attracting new customers. In other words, if you operate on Forex and your friend also wants to start trading on Forex, you can conclude a partnership agreement with your broker, in which the broker will pay you a portion of the commission that the new customer you have attracted will pay. Or you can even pay him a fixed amount for each new customer attracted. I think it’s a good deal.

  1. Contests for Traders

The main brokers usually hold different contests with good prizes among their clients. For example, there are popular traders contests, in which participants are given a period of time, such as a month, during which they must trade in their accounts and display the result. The top three that performed the highest returns receive broker awards. In a recent contest, a trader from Malaysia made a profit of 314% for one month, starting trading with USD 100. And the broker, as a first prize, gave the trader a check for 5,000 USD. There might be someone in your place, for example, you.

Conclusion

I think I’ve put forward enough arguments that you can and should make real money on Forex. No matter how you do it, there are many opportunities. What you need to do is not be passive and start moving.

Categories
Forex Trade Types

Taking Profit in Forex with Dynamic Stop Losses

Many traders will agree with me that one of the most difficult things in Forex trading is the placement of Stop Loss and the levels of take-off. Much of the educational material for learning foreign exchange is focused on how to find the right spot to place an operation. 

While it is true that the entry point is very important, the management of a good trade -that is, the good use of the Stop Loss and the levels of profit taking, changing these levels appropriately as the operation progresses- is equally important. It is quite possible that, even if you get the tickets right, you will lose money in general. Assuming you have a good entry strategy, how can you exploit it to the fullest? Is there a better or more dynamic methodology than just placing a Stop Loss and profit-taking levels and forgetting? There is, although this may be a challenge as the “place and forget” methods are psychologically easier to implement.

This is as important as the analysis one would make before opening a position. In this article, we present a brief guide on how to make the placement of the Stop Loss and the levels of making profits.

Stop Loss (SL) or stops is defined as an order you say or send to your Broker telling you to limit losses in an open position (or trade). Taking profit (TP) or target price is an order you say or send to your Broker, informing you to close your position or trade when the price reaches a specified price level on the profit. The right place for the Stop Loss and the profit-taking levels are of a static nature. In other words, orders are activated (and their operation is closed) when a security value reaches a specified price level.

Dynamic Stop Loss

It is a good idea to never operate without a hard Stop Loss, for example, that is properly registered on your broker’s platform for execution unless very small position sizes. This is an essential point for controlling risk in Forex operations. Imagine the Trade without a shutdown, which could potentially drain your entire capital. Similarly, imagine that you don’t trade without a target price, which basically exposes your entire account’s equity to market fluctuations.

The Stop Loss can be dynamic, as a way to ensure profits in a transaction that progresses in a profitable way. However, the Stop Loss should be moved only in the direction of reducing losses or blocking profits. This way, a trade with good performance will end up giving benefits. This is of course an excellent way to leave an operation ends with a “natural death,” rather than aiming for profit goals that can be very difficult to predict.

An example of a dynamic stop loss is the Trailing Stop. This can be placed on a certain number of pips or based on the average measure of volatility. This last option is the best. Another example would be to move the Stop Loss level periodically so that it is ahead of the main maximum or minimum or other technical indications. The advantage of this is that the operation is kept alive as long as it performs well. When a long operation begins to break through the key support levels, then this type of Stop Loss is hit and ends the operation. This method is a way to let the winners run and stop the losers in their tracks.

Dynamic Profit Taking (Take Profit)

First of all, it is worth asking why you should use Take Profit in Forex. Many traders usually use them instead of moving the Stop Loss and letting the operation end up that way, for the sole reason that the latter method means they always give up a little floating profit. But why cut a short winner? You might think that the price will be directed only at X level but, what if it actually goes ahead? If you list your last hundred operations, I will almost guarantee that you will see that the use of some kind of Stop Mapping would have generated more profits than even your wisest Take Profit command application. Of course, if your style of negotiation is very short-term, profit-taking orders make more sense. However, if you let winning operations run for days, weeks, or even months, then taking profit really does nothing but exacerbate your fear and greed.

There is a possible compromise. You may want to use dynamic pickups set in locations relatively far from the current price, which could be reached by, for example, a sudden news spike. This could get you some nice benefit at the peak, and allow you to re-enter at a better price when the turbulence passes. This is the most suitable use of Hard Take Profit commands within “non-scalping” negotiating styles.

You can also use the soft profit taking levels if you manage to see the price make a good end long candle. Such candles can often be good points for quick departures and reentry as described above. Note, however, that this tactic requires real skill and experience to be used in Forex markets, being a dangerous path for novice traders.

The Trading of Darwin

Charles Darwin’s theory of evolution suggests that the fittest elements within a species are more likely to survive. We can all see this when we plant plants in a garden. Usually, the baby plants that look stronger and taller are the ones that eventually become the best specimens. Skilled gardeners will remove diseased and weak plants and leave the strong ones to grow and harvest when they begin to die. Profitable forex trading is known as “Darwin trading” can be achieved in exactly the same way, by using a combination of soft and dynamic stop loss plus take-profit orders to effect pruning and harvesting, cutting down losers, and letting the winners keep running. A Stop Loss that results in profits can be called a take-profit order when you think about it.

Case Study

In Darwinist operations, the strongest operations survive, and the weakest artists are sacrificed. We can show how you can improve results using “Darwin trading” techniques using the last three years of the EUR/USD currency pair as a case study. 

Long operations began when a fast exponential moving average crossed a slow simple moving average in the hourly graph, considering that all the higher time frames were also aligned (up to and including the weekly time period). An initial hard Stop Loss equal to the 20-day Average True Range was used.

The results of the tests were very positive: of a total of 573 operations, 53.40% reached a profit equal to the hard stop loss and 25.65% reached a profit equal to five times the hard stop loss, before arriving at the hard stop loss. These results clearly show why it is much more profitable to let the winning operations run.

Now, let’s analyze the number of operations that showed benefit 2 hours after entry. Only 48.31 percent of operations fit this category. However, if you look at all the operations that finally hit five times the hard stop loss, you see that 57.44% of these operations made a profit 2 hours after the entry. Five times the average real range is well beyond the average two-hour volatility, so there is an impulse factor.

Categories
Forex Money Management

Beware of the Liquidity Trap!

At present, triggering this wage-price spiral is not within the reach of the Central Banks. The Keynesians, who have not understood a word of what happens in these cases, call this situation a “liquidity trap” and give it an extremely silly explanation, such as an accidental monetary anomaly that leads to insufficient spending. 

They remember that when the economy was going well (in the Happy Twenties) more was spent but they are not able to see what relationship there was between that spending more and that the economy seemed buoyant and they are not able to understand why it is not possible to spend more now. They blame it for a lack of money, credit, and spending, although it is enough to open the window and look to see a world crushed under huge amounts of money, debt, and poverty resulting from decades of spending orgy.

“Liquidity trap” is just a superficial symptom. The central banker cannot cause inflation because he cannot make the money mass grow and this, superficially, is a consequence of the fact that it is not possible to issue huge amounts of new debt that will make the money mass grow. (The failed credit bubble causes the money stock to shrink at high speed (deflation) and the central banker has to create new debt to compensate for that contraction, to replace the money stock that destroys the unpaid credits, and, in addition, create additional debt that makes the money mass grow and dilutes the existing debt). Many analysts think that, fundamentally, it is this severe over-indebtedness of the economy that prevents creating more debt and growing the monetary mass but this is a superficial point of view. Even if all the debt were forgiven, the economy would still be stuck in a deflationary episode.

Let us remember that a spell of spiral price-wages (or currency devaluation) in which the Central Bank causes the money stock to explode evaporates debts because it evaporates savings. It is a confiscation by the State of the savings of savers to subsidize the forgiveness of debtors’ debts (and to get those debtors to consume again and the State to collect again). In this transfer of income, three parts are involved, the saver who has the savings that are confiscated, the State that forcibly imposes that confiscation, and the debtor whose debt is pardoned at the expense of the savings confiscated from the saver.

When in a “liquidity trap”, this transfer of rents stops working, the Keynesians, to explain what is the piece that may be failing and preventing the “stimulus” of the economy, look at only two of the pieces: the debtor or the State and conclude that either there are not enough debtors willing to borrow more or the inflationary policy of the Central Bank is not aggressive enough. Or, in other words, the state is not showing enough commitment to confiscating citizens’ savings or there is not enough interest in receiving the spoils of the confiscation. They always forget the third piece because they do not know that in the economy there are savers who produce and preserve the real collective wealth. They believe that wealth is produced by central banks when they print bills and by squanderers when they borrow those bills and spend them. If the economy does not come out of its agony it is because not enough bills are printed or because they are printed but not spent stupidly enough.

The cog that has stopped, the cog whose arrest is inevitable when you walk the road to poverty called Keynesianism, is of course the third piece in the confiscation and destruction of savings: the saver. No magical Keynesian accountant spell can get us out of this because it lacks the real savings that they can confiscate and destroy to simulate that they create wealth and produce.

Only genuine production (not disguised consumption of production), and savings that allow the preservation and restoration of capital destroyed in the last 50 years, can lift us out of this depression, but none of this would be possible when the economy is crushed by the Great Parasite and his high priests – shamans.

QE’s operations have failed to achieve their goal of inflation because they are a desperate measure in the face of gigantic deflationary forces and simply fail to overcome the power of those deflationary forces. The QE is not a monetary but a fiscal measure, and is, therefore, illegitimate/illegal, since tax measures can only be decided by elected representatives of a Parliament and not by senior officials (who are also deeply retarded).

The QE, as a fiscal measure, consists of a nationalisation of bad private debt. The huge holes in the banks caused by loans that could not be collected are transferred to the taxpayers’ balance sheet, in a Keynesian fantasy operation since the taxpayers will never be able to pay that debt.

The balance sheet of the financial system, which was completely bankrupt, is somewhat healthy and the debt of households and companies is reduced at the cost of an explosive increase in the debt of future taxpayers (the debt of States). In order to understand the process correctly, you have to understand what inflation is and what deflation is. Inflation is the rate of growth of short-term living debt in the system and deflation is the process of contraction of debt stock.

The price increase is only a marginal symptom, which sometimes accompanies and supposes a canary in the inflation mine but is not a fundamental phenomenon and is not always present. For example, hyper-inflationary processes in the Weimar Republic, Venezuela, Zimbabwe, or, today, Argentina occur in severely deflationary scenarios: debt/real value savings in these economies contract severely even if prices rise due to massive counterfeiting of money by governments.

Deflation, contraction of debt/savings present in an economy occur because agents repay their debts and do not go into debt again, because the agents stop saving and there is no savings to finance new credit or because the debtors are unable to meet the financial cost of their debts and those debts become uncollectible and are erased from the banks’ books.

During the onset of the last Great Depression, the current Great Depression, living debt was grossly contracted by debtors’ default. The non-payment of a debt makes that bank asset a failed one: the bank’s right to collect that debt and pushes the bank into bankruptcy, which destroys the savings of the bank’s shareholders first and the bank’s depositors afterward.

For example, a bank with deposits of 10 billion and a capital of 2 billion contributed by shareholders has lent 12 billion. That bank’s assets: its right to collect $12 billion from its debtors, allows it to meet its commitments of $10 billion to depositors and $2 billion to its shareholders.

If that bank’s debtors defaulted on $5 billion, the bank would have to erase, as uncollectible, assets worth $5 billion. Now the bank has assets of only 7 billion with which it would have to face commitments (debts) of 12 billion. The bank is bankrupt and shareholders’ savings worth 2 billion (the bank stock is listed at zero) and depositors’ savings worth 3 billion (depositors suffer a 30% cut, lose 30% of the balance on their deposits) have been destroyed.