In this weekly BTC /USD analysis, we will be taking a look at the most recent events, the current technical formations, as well as discussing possible outcomes.
Overview
Bitcoin has spent the week vigorously pushing towards the upside. The move went parabolic as soon as BTC crossed the $13,900 mark and entered the $14,000 zone. While the surge got stopped just before it hit $16,000, there is a lot of potential upside as there is practically no resistance holding Bitcoin from reaching its all-time high. However, many traders are taking profits and playing it safe out of fear of ending up the same way they did in 2017/2018. This has caused BTC to lose momentum and, most likely, look for a pullback soon.
Technical factors
Bitcoin has conquered the ~15,000 level after a week of constant pressure to the upside. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap is currently consolidating right above the $15,480 support level, which will act as a pivot point and a trading direction decider. The next day or two will be crucial for Bitcoin’s price movement in the short future.
While Bitcoin’s sentiment is extremely bullish at the moment, there is no denying that a pullback is quite possible (and maybe even optimal). As there are no set resistance levels to the upside (because Bitcoin only visited these price levels during the bull run of 2017), we are using Fib retracements as well as small consolidation points from that time to determine possible consolidation/direction change spots.
Another thing to note is that, as of Oct 29, the hash ribbons indicator is showing miner capitulation, sending out a major buy signal.
Likely Outcomes
Bitcoin has two main scenarios it can play out, and both end up with the price pulling back to stabilize and consolidate a bit. The possibility of these plays happening is slightly in favor of the second scenario, but it mainly depends only on where Bitcoin ends up (above or below its pivot point).
- If Bitcoin remains above $15,480, we may expect further attempts of conquering the upside. The next target to the upside are the $16,000 psychological resistance, 23.6% Fib retracement level (sitting at $16,570) and $16,665. If Bitcoin pushes towards the upside, we are almost certainly expecting strong resistance at these levels and an almost certain pullback in the short-term.
- The other scenario may be slightly more likely, and involves Bitcoin rejecting the current level and falling below its pivot point. In this case, the largest cryptocurrency by market cap will look for a support level, and will most likely find it at the $14,640 level or the 38.2% Fib retracement level (sitting at $14,380).
While moves which include Bitcoin moving straight up or down and ignoring these support/resistance levels are possible, they are far less likely and would have to be caused by some fundamental even rather than just price action and technicals.
