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Chart Patterns Forex Forex Education

How Important are Chart Patterns in Forex?

Chartist analysis in forex consists of identifying figures on the price chart, these are usually repeated historically so you can practice in their identification, also they are usually formed in different financial instruments and periods of time, and through them, it is possible to predict with some reliability where the next price movement will follow. It is perhaps the most classic form of analysis in Forex and surely one of the most effective, so your knowledge is always very advisable.

Chartist figures are formed because the market makes oscillations and leaves a “trail” which helps to detect these figures. There are chartist figures that allow confirming the changes of trend, to identify opportunities to enter the market as well as to set objectives in the prices. Chartist figures are more effective in operating in high temporality, although in short periods they usually appear more frequently, also the failures are very recurrent.

Price Pattern in Forex Technical Analysis

The analysis of price movements originated exactly when the price chart appeared. The first graphs were drawn on millimeter paper, and it was then that the first analysts noticed that there were some areas on the graph where the price made similar oscillations at different intervals of time. Traders called them price patterns because the first patterns looked similar to geometric objects, such as a triangle, a square, or a diamond. With the appearance of computer screens and the analysis of longer time periods, new patterns began to appear. Traders use chart patterns to identify trading signals, or signs of future price movements, to enter to trade at the right place.

Chart Patterns You Should Know

“Triangle”

There are several different types of triangles, however, all are based on the same principle. In classical technical analysis, the triangle is classified as a continuation pattern of the trend. This means that the trend that has been on the market before the formation of the triangle may continue after its formation is completed.

Technically, a triangle is a lateral channel of narrowing that usually emerges at the end of the trend. Basically, the triangle is resolved when the range of price fluctuation decreases to the limit, an impulse arises and the price penetrates one of the limits of the figure, moves away from the rupture. I suggest analyzing the break scenarios both upward and downward in the given example. Although the triangle is the continuation figure, it is no more than a probability, and therefore it is worth considering an alternative scenario.

When trading with a triangle pattern, it makes some sense to open a buying position when the price, having passed the resistance line of the pattern, has reached and exceeded the local highs, marked before the break of the resistance line (buy zone). Expected earnings must be set when the price passes a distance less than or equal to the amplitude of the first wave of the figure (profit zone buy). In this case, a stop loss can be placed at the local minimum level that preceded the breakpoint of the resistance line (stop zone buy).

A sales position can be opened when the price has penetrated the figure support line, reached, or pressed through the local minimum level that preceded the breakpoint of the support line (sell zone). Expected earnings should be set when the price has passed a distance less than or equal to the amplitude of the first wave of the figure (profit zone sell). A stop-loss, in this case, must be placed at the level of the local maximum that preceded the breakpoint of the support line (stop zone sell).

“Double Top”

This pattern is classified as the simplest, so the probability of its effective implementation is somewhat lower than that of other patterns. In classical technical analysis, the double vertex is classified as a trend change pattern. This means that the trend that has been on the market before the formation of the pattern may change after its formation is completed.

The figure represents two consecutive maxima, whose peaks are at approximately the same level. The pattern can be straight and inclined, in the latter case you should carefully examine the bases of the upper parts which should be parallel to the maxima.

In classical analysis, a double vertex works only if the trend is reversed and the price decreases, if the price reaches the third maximum, the formation becomes the triple vertex pattern.

A sales position can be opened when the price has penetrated the figure support line, reached, or pressed through the local minimum level that preceded the breakpoint of the support line (sell zone). Expected winnings must be set when the price has passed a distance less than or equal to the height of any vertex of the figure (profit zone).

“Head & Shoulders”

The figure represents three consecutive maxima, whose maxima are at different levels: central must be above the other two, and the first and third, in turn, must be about one height. However, there are some pattern modifications when the shoulders are at different levels. In this pattern, we must ensure that the central maximum is higher than both shoulders. Another key feature for identifying the pattern is a clear trend line, which precedes the pattern’s appearance.

The pattern can be straight and inclined, in the latter case, you should be careful to check if the bases of the upper parts are parallel to their maxima. The minimums between these maxima are connected by a trend line called the neck.

A selling position can be opened when the price has penetrated the neckline of the figure, reached, or pressed through the local minimum level that preceded the breakpoint of the neckline (sell zone). Expected earnings should be set when the price has passed a distance less than or equal to the height of the central vertex (head) of the figure (profit zone). A stop-loss, in this case, must be placed at the level of the local maximum that preceded the point of break of the neckline or at the level of the vertex of the second shoulder (stop zone).

“Wedge”

In classical technical analysis, the wedge is classified as a continuation pattern of the trend.

Technically, the wedge, like the triangle is a lateral channel constriction, but another difference between the wedge and the triangle is its size. The wedge is usually much larger than the triangle and sometimes takes months and sometimes years to form. Therefore, in classical wedge analysis, it is usually implemented in the opposite direction to the formation of the pattern itself, in other words, the trend changes. A purchase position can be opened when the price has penetrated the resistance line of the figure, reached, or pressed through the local maximum level that preceded the breakpoint of the resistance line (buy zone).

“Flag”

This price pattern is classified as the simplest, therefore its efficiency depends on numerous factors. In classical technical analysis, the flag is classified as a continuation pattern of the trend.

The pattern indicates a corrective retreat, following the strong directed movement that often looks like a channel, tilted against the prevailing trend. In classic technical analysis, the flag pattern works only if the trend continues its direction. A purchase position can be opened when the price has penetrated the resistance line of the figure, reached, or pressed through the local maximum level that preceded the breakpoint of the resistance line (buy zone). The angle formed between the predominant trend and the flag channel should not be greater than 90 degrees. The flagship channel itself should not revert in price more than half of the previous trend.

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Forex Education

How to Use Reversal Patterns to Create a Trading Strategy

Introduction

The basic premise of technical analysis is to identify the dominant trend in the financial market and make money trading in its direction. Likewise, when the trend changes, the market analyst should recognize that the previous trend has ended and that it is time to join the new trend.

In this context, the chart pattern analysis offers a wide range of technical formations that reveals the reversion or continuation of a trend. These formations repeat themselves again and again in financial markets. 

This educational article will review a set of chart patterns of reversal and continuation of the trend.

Reversal Chart Patterns

Reversal patterns tend to appear after a prolonged uptrend or downtrend and is usually accompanied by higher volatility. Likewise, the size of the chart formation is indicative of the future movement, as the next move usually experiences advances or declines of similar proportions.

Double Top and Bottom

The double top and bottom is the most common reversal formation that appears in a chart. The following figure illustrates a double top and a double bottom formation.

In a double top, the price reaches a determined top level twice, and it will be confirmed once the price breaks and closes below the valley between the two highs. In the double bottom case, the price moves up, then retraces but cannot break through the previous support level. The pattern is confirmed once the price rises and closes above the minor top between the two lows.

The profit target of this structure can be set to a distance similar to the range between the top and the valley that conforms to the double top/bottom pattern. The invalidation level is located above (or below) the top (or bottom) of the reversal formation.

Triple Top and Bottom

The triple top and bottom formation arise from the same market factors of a double pattern, the next figure shows the setup of this formation. The stop-loss and profit target calculations are similar to those of a double top/bottom pattern. 

In technical terms, the triple top and bottom pattern will be completed when the price action advances a distance similar to the range between the top and the valley that conforms to the triple pattern.

Head and Shoulder Pattern

The head and shoulder pattern is by far the best-known formation warning of the end of a trend. This reversal pattern looks similar to the triple top and bottom structure. The second high (identified as 3 in the following figure) is higher than the tops preceding and following the central high.

The formation is said to be completed once the price breaks and closes below the neckline. The target will correspond to the length between the head and the neckline when projected from the neckline. A possible choice for the stop-loss level is to place it above the second shoulder (5). An alternative to this placement is to put it above the top level of the head (3).

Three Falling Peaks or Three Rising Valleys

The three falling peaks or rising valleys are seldom spotted, although its technical structure is clear. The following figure illustrates both cases.

The three falling peaks will generate a sell-side position if the price breaks and closes below the second valley. In the three rising valleys case, a buy-side position will be activated if the price climbs and closes above the second peak. 

A potential zone of profit target would correspond to the length from the top (or bottom) to the second valley (or peak) and projected from the breakout zone. The stop-loss level could be set above the second peak or valley.

Key-Reversal Day

The key-reversal formation requires that the price action moves in a volatile trading session triggered by high impact news, leading to an extreme euphoric or panicked sentiment on investors. 

These movements could also cause the market to develop false moves, especially when the price moves in an extreme zone. This pattern could be combined with one of the previous formations reviewed previously.

Conclusions

Chart patterns are technical configurations, which, based on its internal structure, provides a clue of the likely market’s next movement. In this context, there are two main groups of chart patterns: reversal and continuation formations.

In this educational article, we reviewed five trend-reversal patterns that can be the basis of a trading strategy that, hopefully, triggers its entries in the early stages of a new trend. Moreover, the chart analyst should consider that each entry setup must have a stop-loss and a profit target identified before jumping into the market.

In the next article, we’ll present continuation chart patterns that can help enter the market when the price moves in a prolongued trend.

Suggested Readings

  • Fischer, R., Fischer J.; Candlesticks, Fibonacci, and Chart Patterns Trading Tools; John Wiley & Sons; 1st Edition (2003).