Forex Market Analysis

How Elliott Wave View of NASDAQ Anticipates Trump’s Coronavirus Outcome


The NASDAQ 100 Index fell 2.2 percent on Friday’s trading session on the news of the US President Donald Trump’s positive coronavirus test. Still, the price action unveiled the wave B completion, suggests further declines for the US technologic benchmark in the following trading sessions.

Market Sentiment Overview

During the last trading week, the NASDAQ 100 volatility has been driven by market participants’ expectations facing the first presidential debate between US President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden.


The advance experienced by the technology index was boosted by the expectation of new economic stimulus, driving the NASDAQ 100 to raise over 4%. However, its gains were lowered after the announcement of President Trump’s positive Coronavirus test, leading it to ease up to 2.74% on Friday’s trading session.

The following 8-hour chart of NASDAQ 100 reflects the 90 days high and low range. In the figure, we distinguish that the price halted its advance towards the extreme bullish sentiment zone, closing the trading week in the bullish market sentiment area and under the weighted 200-day moving average. This market context leads us to weight a neutral market sentiment.

On the other hand, the 12-hour chart corresponding to the NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index shows the 90 days high and low range where we distinguish a sideways movement consolidating above the 200-period weighted moving average. This volatility context of the NASDAQ 100 index, added to the new test of the upper-line of the consolidation structure, leads us to expect an increase in volatility within the coming trading sessions.

Summarizing, NASDAQ 100’s market sentiment unveils that this index and its volatility figures will be driven by the news on the upcoming presidential elections on Tuesday, November 03. In particular, NASDAQ 100 could turn bearish in the following trading sessions.

Elliott Wave Outlook

The overview of NASDAQ 100 shows the full development of a five-wave bullish sequence, which began on June 15, when the price found fresh buyers at 9,383.6 pts pushing the price towards new record highs September 02 at 12,466.6 pts. Once reached the all-time high, the technological index began to perform a bearish corrective movement, which remains in progress.

The following chart shows the NASDAQ 100 in its 4-hour timeframe, where we distinguish that the price has completed a five-wave impulsive structure of Minor degree labeled green. At the same time, we can confirm that the Elliott wave theory rule, stating that there must be only one extended wave. In this case, the NASDAQ 100 index developed a fifth extended wave that ended on September 02 when the price found resistance at 12,466.6 pts. Once the fifth wave of Minor degree concluded, the NASDAQ 100 began performing a corrective sequence, which remains in progress.

In particular, the completion of the wave ((c)) of Minute degree identified in black, which completed the wave B of Minor degree, coincided with the news media release concerning the US President Trump’s positive test, activating the beginning of the wave C, labeled in green.

The following hourly chart of NASDAQ 100 illustrates the first bearish movement’s internal structure corresponding to its wave (i) of the Minuette degree identified in blue. This first downward wave reveals a drop in five moves of Subminuette degree identified in green in its internal formation. Once this second move has been completed, the technological benchmark should resume its declines.

Finally, considering that wave (i) of Minuette degree completed its descending move at 11,220.8 pts on Friday 02nd, the price could retrace, forming its second wave of the same degree. In terms of the Dow Theory, this retrace could be between 33% and 66%, or between the 11,352.3 pts and 11,483.7 pts, where NASDAQ 100 might start to develop a new decline, corresponding to wave (iii) in blue.


By Eduardo Vargas

Eduardo Vargas is a technical analyst and independent trader based in Buenos Aires, Argentina. He is an Industrial Engineer and holds a Master in Finance degree. In 2008 began to trade Chilean stocks listed on IPSA. From 2013 started to trade CFDs on Forex, Commodities, Indices and ETFs markets. He analyses different markets combining the Elliott Wave analysis with Fibonacci tools. He provides a market mid-long-term vision.

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