The greenback dropped broadly due to the downbeat U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data release, which showed that the weekly new claims exceeded 6 million for the second straight time last week. The fresh fears of economic difficulty, indicated by the Fed Chair Powell, also keeps the USD lower, which leads a 0.06% drop in the U.S. dollar to trade at 99.46, having hit a daily high at 99.63 in early Asia. Today, the major focus of traders will be on the U.S. inflation report as most of the market is off due to good Friday. Let’s take a look at the technical and fundamental’s outlook.
Economic Events to Watch Today
EUR/USD – Daily Analysis
The single currency EUR gained a slight bullish momentum against the U.S. dollar on reports that the U.S. jobless claims performed worst than expected. A day before, the European Union finance ministers failed to agree on a coronavirus relief package. Meanwhile, the Bank of France sees the first-quarter GDP shrinking 6% from the previous quarter, the most significant decline since World War II, amid nationwide lockdown due to the coronavirus outbreak.
On the other hand, the EUR currency got supported by multiple factors, the figures of newly infected peoples and death toll showing a sign slowing down across the hotspots in Europe and boosted the sentient around the shared currency. In the meantime, the Eurogroup finally reached a half a trillion euros virus rescue package gave further support to the common currency bulls.
Looking forward, the USD moves and virus updates will continue to play an important role. Traders will keep their eyes on the Fed’s Mester’s speech, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), and the G20 energy ministers meeting for the fresh trading sentiment.
Daily Support and Resistance
- S1 1.0685
- S2 1.0796
- S3 1.0862
Pivot Point 1.0907
- R1 1.0973
- R2 1.1018
- R3 1.1129
EUR/USD– Trading Tips
The EUR/USD has violated the asymmetric triangle pattern, which is leading; it’s price further higher towards the next resistance level of 1.0960. The pair was following 1.0922 – 1.0765 trading, which is now likely to give support to the EUR/USD pair. At this moment, the EUR/USD is holding at 1.0940, having an immediate support level of around 1.09110, where the bearish breakout of this level can extend selling until the next support level of 1.0846 and 1.07990.
The MACD has crossed over 0, converting the bearish sentiment into bullish. At the same time, the 50 periods exponential moving average is also keeping the EUR/USD in a bullish mode, extending an immediate resistance around 1.08996. So, let’s consider taking buying trades above 1.0907 to target 1.0970 today.
GBP/USD– Daily Analysis
The GBP/USD rebounded for a second straight session, gaining 0.4% to 1.2392. U.K. government spokesman James Slack said Prime Minister Boris Johnson is in a stable condition and responding to coronavirus treatment in hospital.
The reason behind the GBP strength could also be the fresh pessimism surrounding Brexit date because the new Labour Party shadow Chancellor Anneliese Dodds asked ministers to beware putting “ideology over the national interest. Whereas, the U.K. Express conveyed the headlines indicating the Transition period delay could cost U.K. taxpayer £26 billion a year.
On the other hand, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell expecting downbeat economics during the 2nd-quarter (Q2) of 2020 before expecting the recovery in the second half of the year.
As in result, Japan’s TOPIX recently rose to 1,424, up 0.56%, while stocks in China remain mixed by the reporting time. Looking ahead, traders will keep their focus on the coronavirus updates for intermediate direction. However, the expectedly downbeat U.S. inflation figures for March will likely keep the pair strong.
Daily Support and Resistance
- S1 1.2187
- S2 1.231
- S3 1.2381
Pivot Point 1.2432
- R1 1.2504
- R2 1.2555
- R3 1.2678
GBP/USD– Trading Tip
The GBP/USD soars to trade around 1.2496 but still holds within a sideways channel. The GBP/USD sideways channel is supporting the GBP/USD pair around 1.220 and along with resistance around 1.2490.
Considering the weakness in the U.S. dollar, the chances of selling remains low, but the bullish bias remains solid over 1.2500 level. Violation of this can lead the GBP/USD prices until 1.2720. The MACD and 50 EMA are also supporting the bullish bias, so let’s consider taking buying trades over 1.2432 with a target of 1.2500 first and then buying over 1.2500 to target 1.2610.
USD/JPY – Daily Analysis
Today in the early Asian session, the USD/JPY currency pair dropped to 108.33, mainly due to the risk-off market sentiment in the wake of intensified concerns about coronavirus (COVID-19). The fresh declines in the U.S. dollar, which are based on downbeat data and depressed signals from the Fed Chair, keeps the pair lower.
The USD/JPY is currently trading at 108.39 and consolidates in the range between the 108.33 – 108.61. At the USD front, the greenback dropped broadly due to the downbeat U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data release, which showed that the weekly new claims exceeded 6 million for the second straight time last week.
The fresh fears of economic difficulty, indicated by the Fed Chair Powell, also keeps the USD lower; as in result, the U.S. dollar index drops 0.06% to 99.46, having hit a daily high at 99.63 in early Asia.
At the coronavirus front, as per the latest report, the 427,460 cases of coronavirus registered an increase of 32,449 cases from its previous count and said the number of deaths also rose 1,942 to 14,696. It should also be noted that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) earlier announced ‘no sail’ order to all cruise ships. As in result, the U.S. continues marked as the world’s second-worst affected nation due to the virus after Italy.
Daily Support and Resistance
- S1 107.84
- S2 108.34
- S3 108.59
Pivot Point 108.85
- R1 109.09
- R2 109.35
- R3 109.86
USD/JPY – Trading Tips
The USD/JPY’s symmetric triangle pattern has already been violated, which was supporting the pair around 108.570. Closing of candles below this level is suggesting bearish bias among traders, which can lead the USD/JPY, the safe-haven currency pair, towards the next support level of 107.850. The 50 EMA is also suggesting a bearish bias for the USD/JPY pair.
On the higher side, the support level 108.500, which got violated earlier, is going to work as resistance now, and it may offer us selling traders in the USD/JPY today. The USD/JPY may exhibit buying until 108.580, and violation of this can open more room for buying until 108.8500. On the lower side, support continues to hold around 107.850. Let’s look for selling traders below 108.550 today.
All the best for today!