Tag: weekly market update

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Macro & Fundamentals 1st, Trade Deals 2nd

Macroeconomic Update – Weekly Outlook (July 23 – 27)

Markets closed with positive returns since they had a positive start due to the strong quarterly results reported by companies along

Macroeconomic Update – Weekly Outlook (July 23 – 27)

Markets closed with positive returns since they had a positive start due to the strong quarterly results reported by companies along

Macroeconomic Update – Weekly Outlook (July 23 – 27)

Markets closed with positive returns since they had a positive start due to the strong quarterly results reported by companies along with the optimistic tine by Powell, president of the Fed.

  • However, it started losing momentum as Trump stated he was considering in implementing new tariffs to Chinese goods increasing the concerns on trade wars and protectionism

o   This also led to the Yuan to depreciate to new low levels

So, this contrast between a solid earnings report from companies and the tension between commercial policies will guide the markets next week.

  • Starting with the macroeconomic indicators, they are forecasted to have a positive tone this week.

o    Among the main indicators in Europe, PMI & IFO are expected to be lower than the previous months but will hold in good levels

  • On Thursday, it will be the meeting of the ECB which is expected just be transition meeting confirming the end of the conventional program of asset purchases at the end of 2018
  • Regarding the United States

o   On Friday, GDP of the second quarter will be released which is expected to reach 4%

  • Hence, this acceleration will confirm the expansive cycle
  • Another fact that should support the markets is the quarterly results making this week possibly the year

o   180 companies are reporting earnings this week, and the outlook is positive

  • So far, regarding the ones that already have reported, have averaged a earnings growth of 20,8%, slightly above expectations

Due to these strong fundamentals both from the macro perspective and from the earnings report, trade tensions could be placed in the background.

  • Nevertheless, on Wednesday Yunker and Trump are meeting.

o   Yunker will meet with some proposals regarding the trade deals and tariffs on automobiles

o    It will provide some hints on what is the outlook regarding the trade deals of United States with the rest

Hence, it is a week to be patient and hold the long positions in the markets since the macro and fundamentals remain strong and positive.

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Weekly Crypto Update 29.06.2018 – The Red Spot

I was thinking there could be a quiet end of this week but the market wants a different thing, yesterday it started a new sell-off in all the charts. During last week, the prices of the main top ten cryptos were moving in narrow ranges and without definition after BTC touched a maximum of $6,319 on Monday 25th and a few hours ago, was very close to the annual minimums touching the $5,790.

General Overview

Market Cap: $234.606.528.197

24h Vol: $12.030.491.219

BTC Dominance: 43.1%

Overall market cap dropped from a weekly high of $ 261,218 Billion to a low today Friday of $ 232,631 Billion and Bitcoin’s dominance has gone up to 43.1% for the first time since April 12.

The important support for the BTC price of $6,000 was lost. The fear in the market is that most of the cryptos will follow the drop of the mother of coins and the result would be a disaster for all cryptocurrencies because we are facing a real possibility to see a minimum of the BTC close to $3,000.

Top Gainers of the week

  1. Selfkey       KEY   90.64%
  2. SPINDLE SPD   90.10%
  3. Paragon    PRG  43.27%
  4. FuturXe   FXE   40.00%

Top Losers of the week

  1. BigONE Token Big -52.59%
  2. PeepCoin PCN -44.25%
  3. CVCoin CVCOIN -31.48%
  4. BioCoin BIO -29.90%

News

There was no remarkable news that could have moved the market considerably. Here is a summary of the most important news items of the week.

The GBTC and Kimchi Premiums are Disappearing Again
Here in late June 2018, the GBTC premium and the South Korean “Kimchi” premium are quickly disappearing. This has historically been a bullish sign that has signalled the end stages of a bear market. It was very close to the last bottom that time; almost the literal bottom of the last cycle on April 9th, 2018

The Bank of International Settlements (BIS) Publishes Negative Report on Crypto
Click to read `The Bank of International Settlements (BIS) Publishes Negative Report on Crypto`
The Bank of International Settlements (BIS) published a mostly negative report on crypto called “Cryptocurrencies: looking beyond the hype.” The report criticises much of crypto while noting the potential importance of the underlying technology.

Crypto Search Trends are Trending up Again!
Crypto search trends are finally trending up again after a “search term correction” started in the winter as crypto prices started to drop. Although it is too early to say for sure, this is potentially a very bullish sign when considered alongside the price and volume data.

Bitcoin Poses Danger to U.S. Elections, Researcher Tells Congress
For a significant part of 2017 and even this year, social media platforms have taken a lot of heat over their alleged role in influencing the 2016 U.S. presidential election. And for a period of time on Tuesday during a congressional hearing, cryptocurrencies were put in the same spot — at least with regards to the future.

Bithumb Has Recovered Nearly Half of Funds Stolen in Last Week’s Hack
Cryptocurrency exchange Bithumb claims that it has recovered nearly half of the funds stolen in a recent high-profile hack at the South Korean trading platform.

South Korea Reveals New [Positive] Crypto Regulatory Guidelines
Financial Services Commission (FSC), the main financial agency of South Korea, has revealed a new crypto regulatory framework and guidelines pertaining to anti-money laundering (AML) and Know Your Customer (KYC) requirements for crypto exchanges.

Analysis

BTC/USD

BTC opened on Monday at $6,160 and touched a high at $6,319, but since then it has been falling slowly during the week, at this moment it is accumulating losses of -5.6% on the week. At the beginning of the trade session, the price reached the annual minimum at $5,838 and at this time it is negotiated at $5,880.


As we mentioned in our crypto analysis yesterday, the level to beat for the bears was $6000 this important support was crossed and if the bears continue to put pressure on the market, the result would be a complete red spot all around the charts with BTC looking for lower levels towards $3,000.

Market sentiment

4-H chart technicals signal a Bullish sentiment.

Oscillators are in oversold zone pointing up.

Pivot points
R3 6405.93
R2 6283.95
R1 6067.61
PP 5945.64
S1 5729.29
S2 5607.32
S3 5390.98

ETH/USD

ETH has lost 9.32% Since opening on Monday and looses 28.5% in June. The bearish trend continues as the bears are putting lower minimums in the chart.


The price is trying to cross the Pivot S1 at $410 and received some difficulty there. It is now sitting around $411 and continues to move down into the bearish channel on this 4-H chart. A breakout of Pivot S1 will probably send the price to the Pivot S2, the important level of $400.

Market sentiment

ETH 4-H chart technicals signal a Strongly Bearish sentiment.

Oscillators are showing sell signals and pointing down.

Pivot points

R3 463.08
R2 453.26
R1 436.81
PP 427.00
S1 410.54
S2 400.73
S3 384.27

LTC/USD

LTC has lost 8.88% Since Monday’s opening and made big loses of 88.4% in June. The price crossed down the triangle chart pattern in $76.47, exactly at the convergence point with the Central Pivot Point and is now sitting at $73.51, an important support to break. The downward trend of the market continues and there are no positive fundamentals that can turn it back, a red weekend is expected for the market.


Market sentiment

LTC 4H chart is showing strongly bearish.

Oscillators are on oversold zone and indicators neutral (Low volatility).

Pivot points

R3 86.1598
R2 83.7105
R1 78.9434
PP 76.4941
S1 71.7270
S2 69.2777
S3 64.5106

Conclusion

The market is making strong short movements that bring new lows in most of the cryptos. The question here is, will the market take a break and recover a little to go down again or this is a confirmed trip to $3.000 in BTC that will drag the others to the ground?

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Transitioning Week

Macroeconomic Outlook

Bearing in mind the  current situation of the markets, it would be necessary to take positions in line with the three P strategy:

  • Priority
  • Preserve
  • Patience

It is still a good moment to take long positions, to buy banks after sell-offs, to buy retail companies and to buy industrials and technologies.

As references, this week we have:

  • Oil Price: Risk that inflation goes up with oil prices again as Central Banks act in a very dovish way every time there is a risk. Markets in the short term will be conditioned to this risk.
  • Geopolitics: Politics, tariffs and trade deals will condition the markets.

o   In the end, this situation will lead to observe if the USA realises that it does not need China as an intermediary for North Korea which will put pressure on the markets in the short term.

o   On the other side, it is politics. European politics are making a bigger noise with the uncertainty about the Italian government which is not that big, and the risk of a vote of no confidence in Spain.

o   So, bearing this in mind, the immediate influence over the markets is high. Therefore the markets slow down. However, it should not concern us that much as politics have less weight on the economies with time.

Moving to macroeconomics, there are a couple of indicators this week. Most relevant are:

  • Wednesday we have American GDP which should remain at 2.3%
  • Thursday, we have European inflation that should increase to 1.6%
  • Then on Friday, we have American wages which should go to 2.6% – 2.7%

o   Ideally 2.6%

The probability that all this happens is low plus New York and London are closed on Monday leading to a slow start. It will be a week of transition, observing all this information and digesting it to know what the reaction of the markets will be. It will be intense in the short term, but as said in the beginning, it is important to persist, have patience and remain where we are.

  • Indexes should be the place where we should remain since the expansive economic cycle continues, politics have low influence on economics, and we are in a period where global growth is happening in a positive synchronised way.

 

Technical Outlook

 

US Dollar Index


 

As expected, the US Dollar Index retested the recent resistance it broke it, confirming the bull trendline. For now, as we got the retest as confirmation, we remain with our bullish position.

EURUSD


 

After catching the first bearish wave, we are capturing the second one. We were waiting for a retest of the support for confirmation, but we did not even need it as it continued falling without chance of retesting the support. Remain bearish for now unless unexpected circumstances arise.

 

GBPUSD


 

After breaking the strong monthly support on Friday, it opens space for a short position. We were waiting for a rebound, but instead of that, we got a strong breakout which gives us the confirmation of the strength of the bearish trend. Hence, it would be convenient to change the position into a bearish one with a huge risk-reward. As for now, we leave the profit taking open until the next monthly support.

USDJPY


 

We will remain on the side this week as USDJPY is in a dead space between supports and resistance. Hence, we do not take any position, remain neutral and await what direction it takes.

Crude Oil


 

We took profits and now it is time to wait on the sides to see what happens. We’ll look closely to see which trendline it gets closer to if it continues the bullish run or breaks any near support. Looking at its reaction, we’ll take another position next week.

DAX


 

Retest confirmation is on its way creating another good time to enter. We remain bullish as there is nothing to be concerned about for now.

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Expansive Economic Cycle Still Supports Markets

Macroeconomic Outlook

The past week was mainly influenced by two relevant factors:

Oil Price

o   It has reached the benchmark of $80 per barrel

o   It has raised concerns

Macroeconomic Outlook

The past week was mainly influenced by two relevant factors:

Oil Price

o   It has reached the benchmark of $80 per barrel

o   It has raised concerns

Macroeconomic Outlook

The past week was mainly influenced by two relevant factors:

  • Oil Price

o   It has reached the benchmark of $80 per barrel

o   It has raised concerns about inflation

  • Ten-year Treasury Yield is at 3.07
  • Italian Elections

o   Populist coalition between the 5 Star Movement and The League

  • This has increased the difference between Italian’s debt to the German one by 155 basis points
  • Depreciation of the Euro against the dollar

So how can these factors influence this week

  • It is reasonable to consider a positive impact rather than a negative one

o   Italian coalition creates further stability to other outcomes

  • Such as Italy leaving the Euro

o   Oil price can still rise due to tension in the Arabic region

  • It can prompt more concerns about inflation
  • However, it is unlikely to change expectations in the monetary policy in central banks
  • Which will support markets
  • $80 barrel is a reasonable price within an expansive economic cycle

Regarding macro indicators, to be published in the coming week:

  • PMI in the eurozone

o   It will consolidate the current slower growth compared to the beginning of the year, however, it will show guidance towards a bigger upcoming economic cycle

  • The economic cycle will be the clear guidance toward a positive environment
  • The outlook is still positive for the markets which are facing the second semester in a good context of moderate globalisation

Technical Outlook

 

US Dollar Index


Monthly resistance has been broken leaving a space until the next one. Hence, it is confirming the continuation of a solid bullish trend through the breakout of this resistance, which leaves space to capture until the next one. A retest may happen to confirm the breakout. In that case, it would be reasonable to double the trade.

 

EURUSD


After breaking and retesting the last weekly resistance, it has confirmed the strength of this bearish trend. It recently touched the profit target, and the strength of the trend shows it has more downturn potential in the coming days. There are no significant resistances ahead which leave more space for another bearish position.

 

GBPUSD


 

After a strong bearish trend, GBPUSD may find a turning point in the coming days, thanks to the monthly resistances ahead. They are significantly strong and may confirm a bounce back.

 

USDJPY

 

USDJY is moving according to our expectations, and it is about to complete the bullish run. When it reaches its benchmarks, which is the monthly resistance ahead, it will be possible to consider a turning back point on the chart.

 

Crude Oil


 

After continuing the bullish trend, it has again touched bullish resistance which gives a reason to still believe in an upcoming downturn. For now, under normal conditions, it would be good to hold, and in case it breaks above the resistance the position would be closed.

 

DAX


 

With no significant resistances ahead and after strongly breaking the previous ones, DAX has a clear bullish route to complete until the next significant resistance. For now, holding the position would be the right decision, since both chart and fundamentals confirm a positive outlook for the markets.