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Daily Market Update: Market’s Reaction to US-North Korea Summit and Central Banks Meetings

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News Commentary


 

 

 

U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un signed a ‘comprehensive’ deal at a historic summit aimed at the denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula.

Trump said the meeting in Singapore had gone “better than anybody could have expected” and he anticipated that the denuclearisation process would start “very, very quickly”, adding he had formed a “special bond” with Kim and the relationship with North Korea would be very different.

 

On the other hand, Trump upset the Group of Seven’s efforts to show a united front, choosing to back out of a previous joint communique. The action drew criticism from Germany and France, and Trump called Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau “very dishonest and weak.”

However, “markets are generally shrugging off the G7 trainwreck,” said Ray Attrill, head of Forex strategy at the National Australia Bank.

Instead, markets are looking ahead to a busy week.

Policy meetings of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, as well as a Brexit bill vote in the British parliament, have the whole show.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates this week while investors are focused on whether the central bank will hint at raising rates a total of four times in 2018.

All eyes will be also on the U.S. CPI at 12:30 GMT with expectations to remain steady at 0.2%.

 

The European Central Bank also meets to decide whether it could signal intentions to start unwinding its massive bond purchasing program.

Helping calm markets were comments from Italy’s new coalition government that it had no intention of leaving the Eurozone and planned to cut debt.

 

 


Chart Analysis


 

US INDEX

On the daily chart, the price had successfully broken the ascending trend from the high of 2017, along with the resistance level to eventually reach the key resistance of 95.15 to bounce back from there. The price shaped a reversal pattern (wedge) which closed with a break beneath it.

With divergence in RSI, the price is expected to have a correction to the key support at 92.6 which is located at the broken trend too, only if it breaks the support of 93.4.

 


 

USD/JPY

On the daily chart, the pair had broken the ascending channel followed by bouncing from the descending trend from the high of 2017 and the key resistance of 111.1.

The price also broke the support 110.05 to reach the next support 108.15 to get back up again from this level to retest the level at 110.05.

As you can see on the chart, the price is moving according to Elliot waves. By forming the A & B waves, we are waiting for the next move down to hit the C level which is located at the support 106.9.

So, any bounce now with price action will enhance the down run.

 


 

AUD/JPY

On the daily chart, we can see that the price is moving sideways between the resistance zone 84.4-84.15 and the support zone 81.2-80.5.

The price now has entered the red resistance area with a possible bounce.

Also, watch the ascending channel which has formed to be considered as a flag pattern. The pattern boosts the original trend which is a down one.

So, any bounce now with price action will push the price to fall.

 


 

AUD/NZD

On the daily chart, as we expected before, the price had made its way up to targets at the resistance zone 1.0815-1.0865, boosted by a BAT harmonic pattern.

The price has already made its retracement as we expected it to.

Bouncing from the support zone and the broken descending trend from the high of 2017, the price is supposed to continue its bullish movement up to the 1.1045 level.

But the price may correct to the level 1.0755 to find support by the Gartley harmonic pattern.

 


 

USD/CAD

On the daily chart, as expected, the price made its way into the resistance zone of 1.289-1.298, almost reaching the key resistance at 1.309, with an approach from the descending trend line starting from the high of 2015, and the upper edge of the horn pattern.

The price has already bounced beneath the key resistance and the resistance zone and got back above it again, but it couldn’t go much further to form a pinbar, to take the price firstly to the support level at 1.274.

 


AUD/USD

On the daily chart, the pair had a correction to the 0.758 level supported by the resistance level 0.766 and the descending line from the high of 2018.

The price has bounced from the 0.758 level near the edge of the ascending channel.

So if the price could break the resistance 0.766 and the descending line, it may reach 0.774 which is a level with a combination of the upper edge of the channel and the broken uptrend.

 


 

NZD/USD

On the daily chart, as we expected before, the pair had bounced from the ascending trend, along with breaking a descending trend, to reach our target at the resistance zone at 0.697-0.702.

According to the BAT-shaped harmonic pattern we expected, the price has already reached our first target and is expected to reach the B point at the next resistance zone of 0.7155-0.7185.

The price may have a little retracement before hitting this target.

 


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