Gross Domestic Product, also known as GDP, is one of the main Microeconomic Indicator in Forex. It is the total amount of money spent on final goods and services. GDP is expressed in percentage terms and is calculated across different time periods. The time period is usually from one quarter to another.
It is a standard measure for the value added to the country’s economy through the production of goods and services during a specific time period. GDP is published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and information on the same can be found on their official website.
What does GDP measure?
Just as explained in the beginning, GDP measures the health of an economy. If the GDP of a country is high, it means it is receiving capital flows from central banks and institutions, which is a big positive for that country. However, if the GDP numbers are declining quarter on quarter, it means the economic growth of the country is shrinking. When GDP falls, unemployment in the country rises, and output in production drops.
GDP is important because it gives a birds-eye view of how the economy is doing. It is a sign of people getting more jobs, getting better pay, and businesses feeling confident about investing more.
Calculation of GDP
The GDP of a country can be calculated by using the below-mentioned formula
GDP = C + I + G + (X-M)
Where C is the spending made by consumers
I is the investment by businesses
G is the government spending
(X-M) is the net exports
How do Forex traders use GDP?
GDP is an indicator that is used by both technical and fundamental traders. It is one of the most critical drivers of the economy and is closely monitored by all. GDP is important because it can affect how the financial markets can behave, both positively and negatively. Strong GDP growth translates into higher corporate earnings, which directly appreciates the currency value. Conversely, falling GDP means the economy is weakening, which is negative for the currency and, therefore, stock prices. According to economists, a recession is said to occur when there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.
One should not forget that GDP is a lagging indicator, meaning it shows what the economy did in the past. It does not predict the state of the economy in the near future. Hence, if the GDP data of a country is not good, traders view this as an opportunity to buy the currency and make a profit in the long term.
Understanding the Gross Domestic Product and its growth rate is essential for investors and traders as it affects the decision-making process of policymakers of the country. When the GDP growth rate is high, the central banks raise interest rates and encourage investment. High-interest rate is said to attract foreign investors and financial institutions. With the improvement in research and quality of data, statisticians and governments are trying to find measures to strengthen GDP and make it a comprehensive indicator of national income.